WhiteSnow的个人主页 - 老虎社区

WhiteSnow

暂无个人介绍

IP属地：未知

2关注

0粉丝

0主题

0勋章

2021-06-24

Stonks

EV Maker Xpeng Said to Get Nod for $2 Billion Hong Kong Listing

2021-06-24

Yes

Apple: Does It Make Sense To Enter The Car Industry?

2021-06-24

I think so too

Why U.S. stocks face a tough decade ahead even if corporate revenues are strong

去老虎APP查看更多动态

{"i18n":{"language":"zh_CN"},"userPageInfo":{"id":"3585809577168208","uuid":"3585809577168208","gmtCreate":1622772327827,"gmtModify":1622772327827,"name":"WhiteSnow","pinyin":"whitesnow","introduction":"","introductionEn":"","signature":"","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","hat":null,"hatId":null,"hatName":null,"vip":1,"status":2,"fanSize":0,"headSize":2,"tweetSize":3,"questionSize":0,"limitLevel":999,"accountStatus":4,"level":{"id":1,"name":"萌萌虎","nameTw":"萌萌虎","represent":"呱呱坠地","factor":"评论帖子3次或发布1条主帖（非转发）","iconColor":"3C9E83","bgColor":"A2F1D9"},"themeCounts":0,"badgeCounts":0,"badges":[],"moderator":false,"superModerator":false,"manageSymbols":null,"badgeLevel":null,"boolIsFan":false,"boolIsHead":false,"favoriteSize":0,"symbols":null,"coverImage":null,"realNameVerified":null,"userBadges":[{"badgeId":"35ec162348d5460f88c959321e554969-3","templateUuid":"35ec162348d5460f88c959321e554969","name":"传说交易员","description":"证券或期货账户累计交易次数达到300次","bigImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/656db16598a0b8f21429e10d6c1cb033","smallImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/03f10910d4dd9234f9b5702a3342193a","grayImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0c767e35268feb729d50d3fa9a386c5a","redirectLinkEnabled":0,"redirectLink":null,"hasAllocated":1,"isWearing":0,"stamp":null,"stampPosition":0,"hasStamp":0,"allocationCount":1,"allocatedDate":"2024.11.08","exceedPercentage":"93.33%","individualDisplayEnabled":0,"backgroundColor":null,"fontColor":null,"individualDisplaySort":0,"categoryType":1100},{"badgeId":"228c86a078844d74991fff2b7ab2428d-1","templateUuid":"228c86a078844d74991fff2b7ab2428d","name":"投资经理虎","description":"证券账户累计交易金额达到10万美元","bigImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c8dfc27c1ee0e25db1c93e9d0b641101","smallImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f43908c142f8a33c78f5bdf0e2897488","grayImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/82165ff19cb8a786e8919f92acee5213","redirectLinkEnabled":0,"redirectLink":null,"hasAllocated":1,"isWearing":0,"stamp":null,"stampPosition":0,"hasStamp":0,"allocationCount":1,"allocatedDate":"2024.08.09","exceedPercentage":"60.66%","individualDisplayEnabled":0,"backgroundColor":null,"fontColor":null,"individualDisplaySort":0,"categoryType":1101},{"badgeId":"976c19eed35f4cd78f17501c2e99ef37-1","templateUuid":"976c19eed35f4cd78f17501c2e99ef37","name":"博闻投资者","description":"累计交易超过10只正股","bigImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e74cc24115c4fbae6154ec1b1041bf47","smallImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d48265cbfd97c57f9048db29f22227b0","grayImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/76c6d6898b073c77e1c537ebe9ac1c57","redirectLinkEnabled":0,"redirectLink":null,"hasAllocated":1,"isWearing":0,"stamp":null,"stampPosition":0,"hasStamp":0,"allocationCount":1,"allocatedDate":"2022.06.15","exceedPercentage":null,"individualDisplayEnabled":0,"backgroundColor":null,"fontColor":null,"individualDisplaySort":0,"categoryType":1102},{"badgeId":"518b5610c3e8410da5cfad115e4b0f5a-1","templateUuid":"518b5610c3e8410da5cfad115e4b0f5a","name":"实盘交易者","description":"完成一笔实盘交易","bigImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2e08a1cc2087a1de93402c2c290fa65b","smallImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4504a6397ce1137932d56e5f4ce27166","grayImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4b22c79415b4cd6e3d8ebc4a0fa32604","redirectLinkEnabled":0,"redirectLink":null,"hasAllocated":1,"isWearing":0,"stamp":null,"stampPosition":0,"hasStamp":0,"allocationCount":1,"allocatedDate":"2021.12.21","exceedPercentage":null,"individualDisplayEnabled":0,"backgroundColor":null,"fontColor":null,"individualDisplaySort":0,"categoryType":1100}],"userBadgeCount":4,"currentWearingBadge":null,"individualDisplayBadges":null,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"location":"未知","starInvestorFollowerNum":0,"starInvestorFlag":false,"starInvestorOrderShareNum":0,"subscribeStarInvestorNum":0,"ror":null,"winRationPercentage":null,"showRor":false,"investmentPhilosophy":null,"starInvestorSubscribeFlag":false},"baikeInfo":{},"tab":"post","tweets":[{"id":121514688,"gmtCreate":1624475085244,"gmtModify":1634005609994,"author":{"id":"3585809577168208","authorId":"3585809577168208","name":"WhiteSnow","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3585809577168208","authorIdStr":"3585809577168208"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Stonks&nbsp;","listText":"Stonks&nbsp;","text":"Stonks","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/121514688","repostId":"1135867851","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1135867851","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1624429313,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1135867851?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-23 14:21","market":"us","language":"en","title":"EV Maker Xpeng Said to Get Nod for $2 Billion Hong Kong Listing","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1135867851","media":"Bloomberg","summary":"New York-traded electric-vehicle makerXpeng Inc.has received the green light from the Hong Kong stock exchange to list in the city, according to people with knowledge of the matter, the latest homecoming share sale by a Chinese company.Xpeng could raise as much as $2 billion in Hong Kong as soon as this year, the people said, asking not to be identified as the information isn’t public. Details could still change as deliberations are ongoing, the people added. A spokeswoman for the Chinese carmak","content":"<p>(Updated at&nbsp;04:07am&nbsp;ET)</p>\n<p>New York-traded electric-vehicle makerXpeng Inc.has received the green light from the Hong Kong stock exchange to list in the city, according to people with knowledge of the matter, the latest homecoming share sale by a Chinese company.</p>\n<p>Xpeng could raise as much as $2 billion in Hong Kong as soon as this year, the people said, asking not to be identified as the information isn’t public. Details could still change as deliberations are ongoing, the people added. A spokeswoman for the Chinese carmaker declined to comment.</p>\n<p>A listing by Xpeng would end a brief hiatus in such share sales by U.S.-listed Chinese firms with online travel firmTrip.com Ltd.the last, raising about $1.25 billion in Hong Kong in April. Many U.S.-traded Chinese companies have flocked to the Asian financial hub since it eased rules in 2018 to allow the likes of Alibaba Group Holding Ltd. and gaming giant NetEase Inc. to list.</p>\n<p>A listing in Hong Kong gives stateside-traded Chinese firms a foothold that acts as a hedge against the risk of being kicked off U.S. exchanges, while allowing them to broaden their investor base closer to home. Under a bill passed in the U.S., Chinese public companiescould be kicked offU.S. stock bourses if American regulators aren’t allowed to review their audits.</p>\n<p>Unlike the other homecoming listings, however, Xpeng’s isn’t a secondary listing -- which would have exempted it from some of the Asian hub’s listing rules -- but a dual primary one. That is because Xpeng, which only went public in New York last year, doesn’t have the two-year listing track record required for it to merit a secondary listing in Hong Kong. It’s set to be the biggest dual primary listing in Hong Kong since biotech drugmakerBeiGene Ltd.raised $903 million in the city almost three years ago.</p>\n<p>Xpeng’s U.S. presence has already helped the EV maker raise funds. After raising $1.72 billion in its August IPO in New York it fetched another $2.5 billion from investors by placing stock in December.</p>\n<p>EV Stocks</p>\n<p>That said, Xpeng will be coming to a market less enamored of EV makers. After a blistering rally in 2020, electric car-makers have seen their shares decline this yearamidincreasing competition from legacy automakers, the global semiconductor shortage and an increasing wariness by investors about holding onto riskier assets.</p>\n<p>Xpeng’s stock surged 381% from its IPO price to a high of $72.17 in November, but has since fallen about 44%, giving the Guangzhou-based company a market capitalization of around $32 billion.</p>\n<p>The carmaker also faces intense competition at home. Rival Chinese EV companiesNio Inc.andLi Auto Inc.-- both traded in the U.S. -- are also planning listings in Hong Kong, Bloomberg News hasreported. The trio compete in an increasingly crowded market in China -- the world’s largest for electric-vehicles -- as tech giants, traditional automakers and startups muscle into the sector.</p>\n<p>Xpeng has yet to turn a profit and has pledged to break even by late 2023 or 2024. Its revenues have been increasing, however,risingto 2.95 billion yuan in the first quarter and its deliveriesgrew 483%in May compared to the previous year.</p>\n<p>Xpeng rose more than 5% in premarket trading.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/da34ebca8314dba57dfa842a72feb5ee\" tg-width=\"658\" tg-height=\"440\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>","source":"lsy1584095487587","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>EV Maker Xpeng Said to Get Nod for $2 Billion Hong Kong Listing</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nEV Maker Xpeng Said to Get Nod for $2 Billion Hong Kong Listing\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-06-23 14:21 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-06-23/ev-maker-xpeng-said-to-get-nod-for-2-billion-hong-kong-listing><strong>Bloomberg</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>(Updated at 04:07am ET)\nNew York-traded electric-vehicle makerXpeng Inc.has received the green light from the Hong Kong stock exchange to list in the city, according to people with knowledge of the ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-06-23/ev-maker-xpeng-said-to-get-nod-for-2-billion-hong-kong-listing\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"XPEV":"小鹏汽车"},"source_url":"https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-06-23/ev-maker-xpeng-said-to-get-nod-for-2-billion-hong-kong-listing","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1135867851","content_text":"(Updated at 04:07am ET)\nNew York-traded electric-vehicle makerXpeng Inc.has received the green light from the Hong Kong stock exchange to list in the city, according to people with knowledge of the matter, the latest homecoming share sale by a Chinese company.\nXpeng could raise as much as $2 billion in Hong Kong as soon as this year, the people said, asking not to be identified as the information isn’t public. Details could still change as deliberations are ongoing, the people added. A spokeswoman for the Chinese carmaker declined to comment.\nA listing by Xpeng would end a brief hiatus in such share sales by U.S.-listed Chinese firms with online travel firmTrip.com Ltd.the last, raising about $1.25 billion in Hong Kong in April. Many U.S.-traded Chinese companies have flocked to the Asian financial hub since it eased rules in 2018 to allow the likes of Alibaba Group Holding Ltd. and gaming giant NetEase Inc. to list.\nA listing in Hong Kong gives stateside-traded Chinese firms a foothold that acts as a hedge against the risk of being kicked off U.S. exchanges, while allowing them to broaden their investor base closer to home. Under a bill passed in the U.S., Chinese public companiescould be kicked offU.S. stock bourses if American regulators aren’t allowed to review their audits.\nUnlike the other homecoming listings, however, Xpeng’s isn’t a secondary listing -- which would have exempted it from some of the Asian hub’s listing rules -- but a dual primary one. That is because Xpeng, which only went public in New York last year, doesn’t have the two-year listing track record required for it to merit a secondary listing in Hong Kong. It’s set to be the biggest dual primary listing in Hong Kong since biotech drugmakerBeiGene Ltd.raised $903 million in the city almost three years ago.\nXpeng’s U.S. presence has already helped the EV maker raise funds. After raising $1.72 billion in its August IPO in New York it fetched another $2.5 billion from investors by placing stock in December.\nEV Stocks\nThat said, Xpeng will be coming to a market less enamored of EV makers. After a blistering rally in 2020, electric car-makers have seen their shares decline this yearamidincreasing competition from legacy automakers, the global semiconductor shortage and an increasing wariness by investors about holding onto riskier assets.\nXpeng’s stock surged 381% from its IPO price to a high of $72.17 in November, but has since fallen about 44%, giving the Guangzhou-based company a market capitalization of around $32 billion.\nThe carmaker also faces intense competition at home. Rival Chinese EV companiesNio Inc.andLi Auto Inc.-- both traded in the U.S. -- are also planning listings in Hong Kong, Bloomberg News hasreported. The trio compete in an increasingly crowded market in China -- the world’s largest for electric-vehicles -- as tech giants, traditional automakers and startups muscle into the sector.\nXpeng has yet to turn a profit and has pledged to break even by late 2023 or 2024. Its revenues have been increasing, however,risingto 2.95 billion yuan in the first quarter and its deliveriesgrew 483%in May compared to the previous year.\nXpeng rose more than 5% in premarket trading.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":191,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":121514399,"gmtCreate":1624475067811,"gmtModify":1634005610115,"author":{"id":"3585809577168208","authorId":"3585809577168208","name":"WhiteSnow","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3585809577168208","authorIdStr":"3585809577168208"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Yes","listText":"Yes","text":"Yes","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/121514399","repostId":"1128236138","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1128236138","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1624433108,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1128236138?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-23 15:25","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Apple: Does It Make Sense To Enter The Car Industry?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1128236138","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Summary\n\nApple is a great company, but has struggled to truly innovate in recent years.\nAn Apple Car","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p>\n<ul>\n <li>Apple is a great company, but has struggled to truly innovate in recent years.</li>\n <li>An Apple Car is increasingly expected to be its next ‘big thing’, but there are considerable risks.</li>\n <li>From a technological perspective, it may make sense to produce a car, but from a financial perspective, it is not so much compelling.</li>\n</ul>\n<p><b>Apple</b>(AAPL) has been struggling to bring innovative products over recent years and much expectation has been created about its Apple Car project. While this may make sense from a technological perspective, if the Apple Car is truly innovative about the battery and autonomous driving capabilities, from a financial standpoint it may have less bright prospects.</p>\n<p><b>Background</b></p>\n<p>As I’ve analyzed in my previous article “Apple: Its Valuation Is Justified By Higher Exposure To Services”, Apple is a great long-term investment due to several competitive advantages over peers, which aren’t expected to be challenged in the coming years.</p>\n<p>However, one area that Apple has been struggling a little bit over the past few years is innovation and offering new products to consumers. The company is failing to bring anything really new to the market and competitors are pushing ahead in some areas like the folding phone that<b>Samsung Electronics</b>(OTC:SSNLF) and Huawei already have while Apple is only expected to offer a foldable phone maybe in the next couple of years.</p>\n<p>More recently, its growth strategy has been focused on wearables and services, which have increased the weight on total revenues in a significant way. Nevertheless, Apple has not launched a new major product for some years, which has increasingly led to questions about if Apple still has the capacity to innovate or if over the long term Apple will take the footsteps of other large technology companies that have lost a dominant position in their industry, such as<b>IBM</b>(IBM).</p>\n<p>There has been some speculation about new products, with the Apple Car being one of the most widely speculated products to be launched in the near future. In recent weeks, speculation has increased that Apple will indeed go ahead with the Apple Car project, as news came out about potential agreements with suppliers for the assembly of the car and the production of batteries.</p>\n<p><b>Apple Car – Product/Technological Perspective</b></p>\n<p>Even though there isn’t much official data from Apple about its car project, this is a topic that has been widely discussed over recent years and some details appear to be more or less certain regarding theApple Car.</p>\n<p>What is generally expected is that this will be an Apple-branded car, with an electric engine and autonomous driving capabilities. Also, Apple supposedly wants the car to be built in the U.S. and most likely this will compete in the high-end or luxury automotive segment.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5d7baf656d54748e0064b03b97f6caa6\" tg-width=\"660\" tg-height=\"395\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p><i>Source: notebookcheck.info</i></p>\n<p>The Apple Car may be launched in three to six years and Apple is reportedly in advanced terms with some suppliers to produce the car and its electric batteries. This means that Apple will likely take most control of hardware and software that goes into the car, but not so much about the production side of it.</p>\n<p>Indeed, there has been some news about apotential agreementbetween Apple and<b>Hyundai-Kia</b>(OTCPK:HYMPY) for the production of the Apple Car, probably in the carmaker’s assembly plant in West Point, Georgia. However, these discussions have reportedly been terminated and also there have been rumors about a potential agreement with<b>Magna International</b>(MGA) and LG for the production of the Apple Car, but so far, this still seems to be in discussion.</p>\n<p>More recently, there has been somenews regarding the battery, with a potential deal with Chinese producers in the making. Reportedly, Apple is in discussions with<b>BYD</b>(OTCPK:BYDDY) and CATL for the production of electric batteries, with building U.S. manufacturing facilities in the U.S. a condition to reach an agreement.</p>\n<p>Apple intends to make the battery a key distinctive factor of the Apple Car over competitors, favoring lithium iron phosphate batteries, instead of lithium-ion, as they are cheaper to build because they don’t use nickel or cobalt. Therefore, it is very important to select a supplier with experience in this field that has the capacity to build with good quality, something that these Chinese suppliers already have.</p>\n<p>From a technological standpoint, this is where Apple most likely can have some competitive advantage over traditional original equipment manufacturers (OEMs) and<b>Tesla</b>(TSLA), with a likely deep integration with its iOS software.</p>\n<p>This means that from an ‘ecosystem’ perspective, the Apple Car may make sense, given that in the future, it is expected that cars will drive by themselves and people will spend much of their time in the car using infotainment or other electronic devices for entertainment. Obviously, this is something that may take a while to happen as it requires a ‘full driving car’ capability, which would be a significant leap forward compared to what current autonomous driving systems can accomplish.</p>\n<p>If Apple can indeed reach such a level of self-driving capabilities, it may be the first to offer a robotaxi service which would be important in the future mobility market, even though it does not necessarily mean a competitive advantage over other tech/auto companies. Tesla also has the same strategy of developing its FSD system and offer robotaxi services, while<b>Uber Technologies</b>(UBER) and other tech companies are also developing autonomous driving systems, thus competition in this field will certainly be fierce in the future.</p>\n<p>If from a technological perspective an Apple Car may make some sense due to Apple’s technological leadership and potential integration with its other products and services, from a financial perspective, it may be different.</p>\n<p><b>Apple Car – Financial Perspective</b></p>\n<p>In my opinion, Apple’s move into the car business is more an ‘ecosystem’ approach rather than pushing for a new product that can boost Apple’s financial figures in a significant way because the automotive business is a low-margin and capital-intensive business, not being particularly attractive for a company that has a very strong financial profile like Apple.</p>\n<p>The first burden to its financials is that developing a car is quite expensive and there is no guarantee of success, as Apple is entering a new market. If demand is not there for an Apple Car, this means that the company will lose billions of dollars in this project, which could instead have been used elsewhere. The automotive industry has some good examples of how things can turn out badly, like the<b>Volkswagen</b>(OTCPK:VWAGY) Phaeton model in which the German carmaker wanted to enter the luxury market, but haslost about $1 billionin this model alone.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/25796c6ab6e9dc77fd3202621ee961da\" tg-width=\"283\" tg-height=\"338\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p><i>Source: Wikipedia</i></p>\n<p>Even though Apple has an excellent consumer brand globally, it is not exactly the same thing to sell $1,500 smartphones and $100,000 cars. Thus, there is a significant risk for Apple that consumers may continue to prefer a Tesla, Audi(OTCPK:AUDVF), BMW(OTCPK:BMWYY), or Mercedes rather than an Apple-branded car in the high-end to luxury segment, just like it happened with the VW Phaeton.</p>\n<p>If an Apple Car does not reach enough sales volume, it means that most likely Apple will lose a good part of the money it has invested in the car’s development. It is not possible to know how much Apple is spending on research &amp; development (R&amp;D) related to the Apple Car project, but certainly, it is already spending billions per year. If the Apple Car eventually does not go ahead, this spending will not be possible to fully monetize. On the other hand, it may lead to a more advanced autonomous driving system than competitors and Apple may sell it to other carmakers, at least monetizing some part of its investment.</p>\n<p>Even assuming that the car is successful and has good sales volumes, this is a project that is expected to generate below-average profitability for Apple, being therefore a questionable path for the company over the long term.</p>\n<p>This may happen because the car industry’s profitability is not impressive, and compared to Apple’s business segments, an Apple Car should have among the lowest gross margins.In the last year, Apple’s gross margin was 38.2%, with the Products segment reporting a gross margin of 31.5% while Services had a gross margin of 66%.</p>\n<p>In the automotive business, Tesla has a gross margin of about 21%, while the German premium carmakers have gross margins between 15-20%, thus an Apple Car should not have a much different gross margin. This will clearly be a relatively low-margin product for Apple, being completely contrary to its recent strategy to push growth in the Services segment that has above-average profitability.</p>\n<p>However, the Apple Car most likely will compete with high-end models, like the Tesla Model S, and most likely Apple will not want to become a mass-market carmaker in the foreseeable future, which means that unit sales should be somewhat limited even if the car is successful.</p>\n<p>It is difficult to forecast how many cars Apple will be able to sell per year, but assuming 150,000 units per year in the first years and an average selling price of about $100,000, this will generate some $15 billion in sales per year. Considering that Apple generated about $275 billion in revenues last year, this shows that an Apple Car should have a limited impact on the company’s financial figures and a weight of less than 5% of its total revenues.</p>\n<p><b>Conclusion</b></p>\n<p>Apple is a great company and historically innovation has been one of its key strengths, a situation that has changed in recent years as the company has struggled to offer new products that make a real impact. An Apple Car seems to make some sense from an ‘ecosystem’ perspective, and if Apple is able to reach full autonomous driving capabilities, it will be ahead of competition.</p>\n<p>On the other hand, from a financial perceptive, this is not so much compelling because it requires significant investments and the automotive industry has much lower profitability than the rest of its business. Apple is a great company, but it doesn’t need to do everything and an Apple Car seems to be a project with a risk-reward profile that is more geared to the downside as it requires big financial commitments and returns may be lower than for its other products.</p>","source":"seekingalpha","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Apple: Does It Make Sense To Enter The Car Industry?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nApple: Does It Make Sense To Enter The Car Industry?\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-06-23 15:25 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4436127-apple-car-does-it-make-sense><strong>seekingalpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Summary\n\nApple is a great company, but has struggled to truly innovate in recent years.\nAn Apple Car is increasingly expected to be its next ‘big thing’, but there are considerable risks.\nFrom a ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4436127-apple-car-does-it-make-sense\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AAPL":"苹果"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4436127-apple-car-does-it-make-sense","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/5a36db9d73b4222bc376d24ccc48c8a4","article_id":"1128236138","content_text":"Summary\n\nApple is a great company, but has struggled to truly innovate in recent years.\nAn Apple Car is increasingly expected to be its next ‘big thing’, but there are considerable risks.\nFrom a technological perspective, it may make sense to produce a car, but from a financial perspective, it is not so much compelling.\n\nApple(AAPL) has been struggling to bring innovative products over recent years and much expectation has been created about its Apple Car project. While this may make sense from a technological perspective, if the Apple Car is truly innovative about the battery and autonomous driving capabilities, from a financial standpoint it may have less bright prospects.\nBackground\nAs I’ve analyzed in my previous article “Apple: Its Valuation Is Justified By Higher Exposure To Services”, Apple is a great long-term investment due to several competitive advantages over peers, which aren’t expected to be challenged in the coming years.\nHowever, one area that Apple has been struggling a little bit over the past few years is innovation and offering new products to consumers. The company is failing to bring anything really new to the market and competitors are pushing ahead in some areas like the folding phone thatSamsung Electronics(OTC:SSNLF) and Huawei already have while Apple is only expected to offer a foldable phone maybe in the next couple of years.\nMore recently, its growth strategy has been focused on wearables and services, which have increased the weight on total revenues in a significant way. Nevertheless, Apple has not launched a new major product for some years, which has increasingly led to questions about if Apple still has the capacity to innovate or if over the long term Apple will take the footsteps of other large technology companies that have lost a dominant position in their industry, such asIBM(IBM).\nThere has been some speculation about new products, with the Apple Car being one of the most widely speculated products to be launched in the near future. In recent weeks, speculation has increased that Apple will indeed go ahead with the Apple Car project, as news came out about potential agreements with suppliers for the assembly of the car and the production of batteries.\nApple Car – Product/Technological Perspective\nEven though there isn’t much official data from Apple about its car project, this is a topic that has been widely discussed over recent years and some details appear to be more or less certain regarding theApple Car.\nWhat is generally expected is that this will be an Apple-branded car, with an electric engine and autonomous driving capabilities. Also, Apple supposedly wants the car to be built in the U.S. and most likely this will compete in the high-end or luxury automotive segment.\n\nSource: notebookcheck.info\nThe Apple Car may be launched in three to six years and Apple is reportedly in advanced terms with some suppliers to produce the car and its electric batteries. This means that Apple will likely take most control of hardware and software that goes into the car, but not so much about the production side of it.\nIndeed, there has been some news about apotential agreementbetween Apple andHyundai-Kia(OTCPK:HYMPY) for the production of the Apple Car, probably in the carmaker’s assembly plant in West Point, Georgia. However, these discussions have reportedly been terminated and also there have been rumors about a potential agreement withMagna International(MGA) and LG for the production of the Apple Car, but so far, this still seems to be in discussion.\nMore recently, there has been somenews regarding the battery, with a potential deal with Chinese producers in the making. Reportedly, Apple is in discussions withBYD(OTCPK:BYDDY) and CATL for the production of electric batteries, with building U.S. manufacturing facilities in the U.S. a condition to reach an agreement.\nApple intends to make the battery a key distinctive factor of the Apple Car over competitors, favoring lithium iron phosphate batteries, instead of lithium-ion, as they are cheaper to build because they don’t use nickel or cobalt. Therefore, it is very important to select a supplier with experience in this field that has the capacity to build with good quality, something that these Chinese suppliers already have.\nFrom a technological standpoint, this is where Apple most likely can have some competitive advantage over traditional original equipment manufacturers (OEMs) andTesla(TSLA), with a likely deep integration with its iOS software.\nThis means that from an ‘ecosystem’ perspective, the Apple Car may make sense, given that in the future, it is expected that cars will drive by themselves and people will spend much of their time in the car using infotainment or other electronic devices for entertainment. Obviously, this is something that may take a while to happen as it requires a ‘full driving car’ capability, which would be a significant leap forward compared to what current autonomous driving systems can accomplish.\nIf Apple can indeed reach such a level of self-driving capabilities, it may be the first to offer a robotaxi service which would be important in the future mobility market, even though it does not necessarily mean a competitive advantage over other tech/auto companies. Tesla also has the same strategy of developing its FSD system and offer robotaxi services, whileUber Technologies(UBER) and other tech companies are also developing autonomous driving systems, thus competition in this field will certainly be fierce in the future.\nIf from a technological perspective an Apple Car may make some sense due to Apple’s technological leadership and potential integration with its other products and services, from a financial perspective, it may be different.\nApple Car – Financial Perspective\nIn my opinion, Apple’s move into the car business is more an ‘ecosystem’ approach rather than pushing for a new product that can boost Apple’s financial figures in a significant way because the automotive business is a low-margin and capital-intensive business, not being particularly attractive for a company that has a very strong financial profile like Apple.\nThe first burden to its financials is that developing a car is quite expensive and there is no guarantee of success, as Apple is entering a new market. If demand is not there for an Apple Car, this means that the company will lose billions of dollars in this project, which could instead have been used elsewhere. The automotive industry has some good examples of how things can turn out badly, like theVolkswagen(OTCPK:VWAGY) Phaeton model in which the German carmaker wanted to enter the luxury market, but haslost about $1 billionin this model alone.\n\nSource: Wikipedia\nEven though Apple has an excellent consumer brand globally, it is not exactly the same thing to sell $1,500 smartphones and $100,000 cars. Thus, there is a significant risk for Apple that consumers may continue to prefer a Tesla, Audi(OTCPK:AUDVF), BMW(OTCPK:BMWYY), or Mercedes rather than an Apple-branded car in the high-end to luxury segment, just like it happened with the VW Phaeton.\nIf an Apple Car does not reach enough sales volume, it means that most likely Apple will lose a good part of the money it has invested in the car’s development. It is not possible to know how much Apple is spending on research & development (R&D) related to the Apple Car project, but certainly, it is already spending billions per year. If the Apple Car eventually does not go ahead, this spending will not be possible to fully monetize. On the other hand, it may lead to a more advanced autonomous driving system than competitors and Apple may sell it to other carmakers, at least monetizing some part of its investment.\nEven assuming that the car is successful and has good sales volumes, this is a project that is expected to generate below-average profitability for Apple, being therefore a questionable path for the company over the long term.\nThis may happen because the car industry’s profitability is not impressive, and compared to Apple’s business segments, an Apple Car should have among the lowest gross margins.In the last year, Apple’s gross margin was 38.2%, with the Products segment reporting a gross margin of 31.5% while Services had a gross margin of 66%.\nIn the automotive business, Tesla has a gross margin of about 21%, while the German premium carmakers have gross margins between 15-20%, thus an Apple Car should not have a much different gross margin. This will clearly be a relatively low-margin product for Apple, being completely contrary to its recent strategy to push growth in the Services segment that has above-average profitability.\nHowever, the Apple Car most likely will compete with high-end models, like the Tesla Model S, and most likely Apple will not want to become a mass-market carmaker in the foreseeable future, which means that unit sales should be somewhat limited even if the car is successful.\nIt is difficult to forecast how many cars Apple will be able to sell per year, but assuming 150,000 units per year in the first years and an average selling price of about $100,000, this will generate some $15 billion in sales per year. Considering that Apple generated about $275 billion in revenues last year, this shows that an Apple Car should have a limited impact on the company’s financial figures and a weight of less than 5% of its total revenues.\nConclusion\nApple is a great company and historically innovation has been one of its key strengths, a situation that has changed in recent years as the company has struggled to offer new products that make a real impact. An Apple Car seems to make some sense from an ‘ecosystem’ perspective, and if Apple is able to reach full autonomous driving capabilities, it will be ahead of competition.\nOn the other hand, from a financial perceptive, this is not so much compelling because it requires significant investments and the automotive industry has much lower profitability than the rest of its business. Apple is a great company, but it doesn’t need to do everything and an Apple Car seems to be a project with a risk-reward profile that is more geared to the downside as it requires big financial commitments and returns may be lower than for its other products.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":143,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":121515803,"gmtCreate":1624474809302,"gmtModify":1634005610804,"author":{"id":"3585809577168208","authorId":"3585809577168208","name":"WhiteSnow","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3585809577168208","authorIdStr":"3585809577168208"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"I think so too","listText":"I think so too","text":"I think so too","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/121515803","repostId":"1198462718","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1198462718","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1624448358,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1198462718?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-23 19:39","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Why U.S. stocks face a tough decade ahead even if corporate revenues are strong","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1198462718","media":"MarketWatch","summary":"Stock market’s return will grow at the same rate as the U.S. economy.\n\nMight there be hope, after al","content":"<blockquote>\n <b>Stock market’s return will grow at the same rate as the U.S. economy.</b>\n</blockquote>\n<p>Might there be hope, after all, for the U.S. stock market’s return over the next decade? I ask as a follow up tomy column earlier this monthin which I concluded that even under optimistic assumptions, the S&amp;P 500SPX,+0.51%over the next 10 years is unlikely to produce an annualized total real return greater than the low single-digits.</p>\n<p>My argument was that the stock market will not be able to count on the three pillars that have propped it up over the past decade — increasing valuations, profit margins and more buybacks than new shares issued (net buybacks).</p>\n<p>Some readers responded that I had overlooked an escape hatch which would enable the market to produce decent returns: corporate revenues can grow faster than the overall U.S. economy. To the extent this is so, then the stock market does not need any of those three pillars to do well.</p>\n<p>This escape hatch appears to have solid evidence behind it. Consider a recent note to clients from Jonathan Golub, chief U.S. equity strategist and head of quantitative research at Credit Suisse. He reported that, according to an econometric model he constructed based on S&amp;P 500 sales and GDP since 2000, “every 1% upside in nominal GDP drives 2½–3% improvement in revenues.”</p>\n<p>If so, this certainly would be good for stock investors. It would mean that even without increasing valuations, profit margins or net buybacks, the stock market could significantly outperform the overall economy.</p>\n<p>Unfortunately, this argument is too good to be true. I analyzed S&amp;P 500 sales back to the early 1970s (courtesy of data from Ned Davis Research), and found almost a 1:1 correlation between sales growth and GDP growth.</p>\n<p>This is entirely what we should expect, according to Robert Arnott, chairman and founder of Research Affiliates. In an email, he said that “aggregate sales should offer a pretty clean 1:1 relationship to GDP. Any other ratio makes no sense on a sustained basis.”</p>\n<p>How then did Golub come up with such a different answer? My hunch is that it traces to how he measured sales. In an email, Golub’s colleague Manish Bangard, an equity strategist at Credit Suisse, explained that they focused on sales per share. But, as Arnott points out, this per-share number reflects the impact of net buybacks. So the high sales-to-GDP ratio that Golub reports is not a pure measure of how sales growth relates to GDP. (I did not receive a response to my requests for additional comment.)</p>\n<p><b>Investment implication</b></p>\n<p>The implication is that we should not expect the U.S. stock market over the next decade to grow faster than the economy. It may in fact grow much more slowly if P/E ratios or profit margins regress even partway to their historical mean, or if net buybacks turn out to be negative (as they’ve been for most of U.S. history).</p>\n<p>But even if P/E ratios and profit margins stay constant between now and 2031 and there are no net buybacks, the lesson of history is that the U.S. market will grow no faster than the economy.</p>\n<p>Consider what that means. TheCongressional Budget Office is projectingthat real GDP from 2022 through 2031 will grow at a 1.8% annualized rate. Even that may be optimistic, because the CBO projects no recession between now and then.</p>\n<p>The bottom line: The stock market has its work cut out to produce even a fraction of the past decade’s fabulous return.</p>","source":"lsy1603348471595","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Why U.S. stocks face a tough decade ahead even if corporate revenues are strong</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWhy U.S. stocks face a tough decade ahead even if corporate revenues are strong\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-06-23 19:39 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.marketwatch.com/story/why-u-s-stocks-face-a-tough-decade-ahead-even-if-corporate-revenues-are-strong-11624429824?siteid=yhoof2><strong>MarketWatch</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Stock market’s return will grow at the same rate as the U.S. economy.\n\nMight there be hope, after all, for the U.S. stock market’s return over the next decade? I ask as a follow up tomy column earlier...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/why-u-s-stocks-face-a-tough-decade-ahead-even-if-corporate-revenues-are-strong-11624429824?siteid=yhoof2\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"SPY":"标普500ETF",".DJI":"道琼斯",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/why-u-s-stocks-face-a-tough-decade-ahead-even-if-corporate-revenues-are-strong-11624429824?siteid=yhoof2","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1198462718","content_text":"Stock market’s return will grow at the same rate as the U.S. economy.\n\nMight there be hope, after all, for the U.S. stock market’s return over the next decade? I ask as a follow up tomy column earlier this monthin which I concluded that even under optimistic assumptions, the S&P 500SPX,+0.51%over the next 10 years is unlikely to produce an annualized total real return greater than the low single-digits.\nMy argument was that the stock market will not be able to count on the three pillars that have propped it up over the past decade — increasing valuations, profit margins and more buybacks than new shares issued (net buybacks).\nSome readers responded that I had overlooked an escape hatch which would enable the market to produce decent returns: corporate revenues can grow faster than the overall U.S. economy. To the extent this is so, then the stock market does not need any of those three pillars to do well.\nThis escape hatch appears to have solid evidence behind it. Consider a recent note to clients from Jonathan Golub, chief U.S. equity strategist and head of quantitative research at Credit Suisse. He reported that, according to an econometric model he constructed based on S&P 500 sales and GDP since 2000, “every 1% upside in nominal GDP drives 2½–3% improvement in revenues.”\nIf so, this certainly would be good for stock investors. It would mean that even without increasing valuations, profit margins or net buybacks, the stock market could significantly outperform the overall economy.\nUnfortunately, this argument is too good to be true. I analyzed S&P 500 sales back to the early 1970s (courtesy of data from Ned Davis Research), and found almost a 1:1 correlation between sales growth and GDP growth.\nThis is entirely what we should expect, according to Robert Arnott, chairman and founder of Research Affiliates. In an email, he said that “aggregate sales should offer a pretty clean 1:1 relationship to GDP. Any other ratio makes no sense on a sustained basis.”\nHow then did Golub come up with such a different answer? My hunch is that it traces to how he measured sales. In an email, Golub’s colleague Manish Bangard, an equity strategist at Credit Suisse, explained that they focused on sales per share. But, as Arnott points out, this per-share number reflects the impact of net buybacks. So the high sales-to-GDP ratio that Golub reports is not a pure measure of how sales growth relates to GDP. (I did not receive a response to my requests for additional comment.)\nInvestment implication\nThe implication is that we should not expect the U.S. stock market over the next decade to grow faster than the economy. It may in fact grow much more slowly if P/E ratios or profit margins regress even partway to their historical mean, or if net buybacks turn out to be negative (as they’ve been for most of U.S. history).\nBut even if P/E ratios and profit margins stay constant between now and 2031 and there are no net buybacks, the lesson of history is that the U.S. market will grow no faster than the economy.\nConsider what that means. TheCongressional Budget Office is projectingthat real GDP from 2022 through 2031 will grow at a 1.8% annualized rate. Even that may be optimistic, because the CBO projects no recession between now and then.\nThe bottom line: The stock market has its work cut out to produce even a fraction of the past decade’s fabulous return.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":227,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":121515803,"gmtCreate":1624474809302,"gmtModify":1634005610804,"author":{"id":"3585809577168208","authorId":"3585809577168208","name":"WhiteSnow","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3585809577168208","authorIdStr":"3585809577168208"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"I think so too","listText":"I think so too","text":"I think so too","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/121515803","repostId":"1198462718","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":227,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":121514688,"gmtCreate":1624475085244,"gmtModify":1634005609994,"author":{"id":"3585809577168208","authorId":"3585809577168208","name":"WhiteSnow","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3585809577168208","authorIdStr":"3585809577168208"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Stonks&nbsp;","listText":"Stonks&nbsp;","text":"Stonks","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/121514688","repostId":"1135867851","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":191,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":121514399,"gmtCreate":1624475067811,"gmtModify":1634005610115,"author":{"id":"3585809577168208","authorId":"3585809577168208","name":"WhiteSnow","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3585809577168208","authorIdStr":"3585809577168208"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Yes","listText":"Yes","text":"Yes","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/121514399","repostId":"1128236138","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":143,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}