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2021-07-17

They are not credible at all

Pfizer Issues Voluntary Nationwide Recall For Twelve Lots Of Chantix Tablets Due To N-Nitroso Varenicline Content

2021-07-14

The wave just isnt stopping

Apple shares rises nearly 1% in premarket trading.

2021-06-30

Such a crazy stock

Facebook: Simply Unstoppable

2021-06-23

Not a good sign

抱歉，原内容已删除

2021-06-22

Great opportunity to buy on dip (pls like andcomment)

A correction could be coming. Here's how to protect your retirement portfolio from the dip

2021-06-21

Something is changing (pls like and comment)

抱歉，原内容已删除

2021-06-16

I think the crash is coming soon

抱歉，原内容已删除

2021-06-16

I think the bear market is coming soon. Afterthe FOMC meeting that's due to happen tonight. Any thoughts?

2021-06-16

Comment on my post pls!

Quad-Witch Quandary: How Will Friday's $2 Trillion Gamma Expiration Impact Markets

2021-06-15

Is this a cue to short bank stocks?

Singapore’s Gen-Z Are Borrowing Too Freely, Central Bank Worries

2021-06-14

It would be a great time to jump in and be vested!

These stocks could be big winners if interest rates continue to fall

2021-06-12

I want to buy in some!

15 momentum stocks expected to show the best sales growth over the next two years, including Carvana, Tesla and Palantir

2021-06-10

Wont overheat? Theyre just kidding themselves

Goldman Explains Why The Economy Won't Overheat, No Matter What Today's CPI Shows

2021-06-10

Amazing! Are you all vested too?

HK-listed Ocumension Therapeutics hits near 5-month high on share sale plan

2021-06-10

Bad debt will hurt everyone

China's top banking regulator warns of bad debt, local real estate bubbles

2021-06-09

Yes economic recovery is on ghe way!

抱歉，原内容已删除

2021-06-08

Have a wonderful trading day everyone!

5 Stocks To Watch For June 8, 2021

2021-06-07

Really wonderful to have discovered Tiger Brokers. Its intuitive platform and modern interface makes trading so easy!

2021-06-06

Good choices for the 7 stocks

抱歉，原内容已删除

2021-06-06

I support this.

Zillow: Significant Downside Remains

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((Reuters.Briefs@Thomsonreuters.Com;)).</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Pfizer Issues Voluntary Nationwide Recall For Twelve Lots Of Chantix Tablets Due To N-Nitroso Varenicline Content</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nPfizer Issues Voluntary Nationwide Recall For Twelve Lots Of Chantix Tablets Due To N-Nitroso Varenicline Content\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1086160438\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/a113a995fbbc262262d15a5ce37e7bc5);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">T-Reuters </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2021-07-17 10:35</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Pfizer Inc:Pfizer Issues A Voluntary Nationwide Recall For Twelve Lots Of Chantix® (Varenicline) Tablets Due To N-Nitroso Varenicline Content.Wholesalers, Distributors With Existing Inventory Of The Lots Should Stop Use &amp; Distribution; Quarantine The Product Immediately.Pfizer-Recalling 2 Lots Of Chantix 0.5Mg, 2 Lots Of Chantix 1 Mg Tablets, 8 Lots Of Chantix Kit Of 0.5Mg/1 Mg Tablets Due To Presence Of Nitrosamine.Believes The Benefit/Risk Profile Of Chantix Remains Positive.To Date, Pfizer Has Not Received Any Reports Of Adverse Events That Have Been Related To This Recall.As Communicated By Fda, There Is No Immediate Risk To Patients Taking Chantix.Further Company Coverage:. ((Reuters.Briefs@Thomsonreuters.Com;)).</p>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"PFE":"辉瑞"},"is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2152168563","content_text":"Pfizer Inc:Pfizer Issues A Voluntary Nationwide Recall For Twelve Lots Of Chantix® (Varenicline) Tablets Due To N-Nitroso Varenicline Content.Wholesalers, Distributors With Existing Inventory Of The Lots Should Stop Use & Distribution; Quarantine The Product Immediately.Pfizer-Recalling 2 Lots Of Chantix 0.5Mg, 2 Lots Of Chantix 1 Mg Tablets, 8 Lots Of Chantix Kit Of 0.5Mg/1 Mg Tablets Due To Presence Of Nitrosamine.Believes The Benefit/Risk Profile Of Chantix Remains Positive.To Date, Pfizer Has Not Received Any Reports Of Adverse Events That Have Been Related To This Recall.As Communicated By Fda, There Is No Immediate Risk To Patients Taking Chantix.Further Company Coverage:. ((Reuters.Briefs@Thomsonreuters.Com;)).","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":613,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":144001845,"gmtCreate":1626250638187,"gmtModify":1631890663413,"author":{"id":"3585096019201823","authorId":"3585096019201823","name":"ppangsy","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/20471738d34ed6efdb59281b8fc3b6c8","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3585096019201823","authorIdStr":"3585096019201823"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"The wave just isnt&nbsp;stopping","listText":"The wave just isnt&nbsp;stopping","text":"The wave just isnt stopping","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/144001845","repostId":"1158281742","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1158281742","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Providing stock market headlines, business news, financials and earnings ","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Tiger Newspress","id":"1079075236","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1626249848,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1158281742?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-07-14 16:04","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Apple shares rises nearly 1% in premarket trading.","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1158281742","media":"Tiger Newspress","summary":"Apple shares rises nearly 1% in premarket trading.\nApple Inc. has asked suppliers to build as many a","content":"<p>Apple&nbsp;shares rises nearly&nbsp;1% in premarket&nbsp;trading.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/35d519e7b8520bdf005ef08215187349\" tg-width=\"1290\" tg-height=\"619\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Apple Inc. has asked suppliers to build as many as 90 million next-generation iPhones this year, a sharp increase from its 2020 iPhone shipments, according to people with knowledge of the matter.</p>\n<p>The Cupertino, California-based tech giant has maintained a consistent level in recent years of roughly 75 million units for the initial run from a device’s launch through the end of the year. The upgraded forecast for 2021 would suggest the company anticipates its first iPhone launch since the rollout of Covid-19 vaccines will unlock additional demand. The next iPhones will be Apple’s second with 5G, a key enticement pushing users to upgrade.</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Apple shares rises nearly 1% in premarket trading.</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nApple shares rises nearly 1% in premarket trading.\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1079075236\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Tiger Newspress </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2021-07-14 16:04</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Apple&nbsp;shares rises nearly&nbsp;1% in premarket&nbsp;trading.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/35d519e7b8520bdf005ef08215187349\" tg-width=\"1290\" tg-height=\"619\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Apple Inc. has asked suppliers to build as many as 90 million next-generation iPhones this year, a sharp increase from its 2020 iPhone shipments, according to people with knowledge of the matter.</p>\n<p>The Cupertino, California-based tech giant has maintained a consistent level in recent years of roughly 75 million units for the initial run from a device’s launch through the end of the year. The upgraded forecast for 2021 would suggest the company anticipates its first iPhone launch since the rollout of Covid-19 vaccines will unlock additional demand. The next iPhones will be Apple’s second with 5G, a key enticement pushing users to upgrade.</p>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AAPL":"苹果"},"is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1158281742","content_text":"Apple shares rises nearly 1% in premarket trading.\nApple Inc. has asked suppliers to build as many as 90 million next-generation iPhones this year, a sharp increase from its 2020 iPhone shipments, according to people with knowledge of the matter.\nThe Cupertino, California-based tech giant has maintained a consistent level in recent years of roughly 75 million units for the initial run from a device’s launch through the end of the year. The upgraded forecast for 2021 would suggest the company anticipates its first iPhone launch since the rollout of Covid-19 vaccines will unlock additional demand. The next iPhones will be Apple’s second with 5G, a key enticement pushing users to upgrade.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":680,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":153080415,"gmtCreate":1624985515537,"gmtModify":1631890663416,"author":{"id":"3585096019201823","authorId":"3585096019201823","name":"ppangsy","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/20471738d34ed6efdb59281b8fc3b6c8","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3585096019201823","authorIdStr":"3585096019201823"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Such a crazy stock","listText":"Such a crazy stock","text":"Such a crazy stock","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/153080415","repostId":"1100563900","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1100563900","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1624956396,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1100563900?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-29 16:46","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Facebook: Simply Unstoppable","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1100563900","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"The #StopHateforProfit Campaign, antitrust allegations, Apple IDFA issue, and a host of other historical issues have not stopped the social media giant and will not stop it.Despite an impressive rally delivering 65% since the start of CY20 and 26% YTD, Facebook remains undervalued relative to its peers and the FAANG stocks with the best forward estimates.The strong moat originating from their sheer user base, and sizeable TAMs in E-commerce, VR/AR, digital assets , cumulatively make for a compel","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p>\n<ul>\n <li>The #StopHateforProfit Campaign, antitrust allegations, Apple IDFA issue, and a host of other historical issues have not stopped the social media giant and will not stop it.</li>\n <li>Despite an impressive rally delivering 65% since the start of CY20 and 26% YTD, Facebook remains undervalued relative to its peers and the FAANG stocks with the best forward estimates.</li>\n <li>The strong moat originating from their sheer user base, and sizeable TAMs in E-commerce, VR/AR, digital assets (DIEM), cumulatively make for a compelling growth story.</li>\n <li>Although the company is highly controversial and rightfully so, this article focuses more on the quantitative analysis and less on the morals and ethics behind this investment. That, we shall leave to you.</li>\n</ul>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3b3414073b72a391e760025594ec111f\" tg-width=\"768\" tg-height=\"528\"><span>nemke/E+ via Getty Images</span></p>\n<p><b>Investment Thesis</b></p>\n<p>Facebook (FB) has had a volatile trading period the past few years with a general uptrend, delivering shareholders nice returns whilst subjecting them to a few major dips which presented investors an opportunity for a steal. Despite the controversy and headline risks every now and then, the company has been able to battle through them and emerge ever so stronger. The company’s financials have been holding up and shows no sign of stoppage anytime soon. In a time as such, with significant uncertainty in the macro environment and inflation fears creeping up, we believe that shifting some of your assets to high cashflow generating companies is a wise strategy that will pay off. Growth and value are 2 different things, and there still exists growth companies that are undervalued and can still generate substantial cashflow, and we believe Facebook is one of them. The company also remains to be one of the more attractive blue-chip stocks compared to the others in the FAANG. We employ a 3–5-year outlook and have been bullish since USD$200/share. Let’s Begin!</p>\n<p><b>What is Facebook</b></p>\n<p>Known to all, Facebook is a social media giant with a family of products including the likes of Facebook, Instagram,WhatsApp, Messenger, and now Oculus. The firm essentially has a stronghold in the social media industry and has an impressive DAP of2.72 BN as of Q1’21and MAP of 3.45 BN.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e3d08f4df186c4705a5300f40d6b8a5e\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"429\"><span>(Source:FB Q1’21 Presentation)</span></p>\n<p>The world has7.874 BNpeople as of the time of this writing and that would mean that 43.8% of all the people in the world use some form of product from Facebook’s portfolio in the past 30 days. On a daily basis, 34.5% of the people in the world use it. If that isn’t a sticky service, nothing really is. If we were to focus on the usage of the Facebook app solely, 23.8% of the world logs into the app daily based on DAUs.</p>\n<p>The firm was founded in 2004 and generates the majority of their revenue from advertisements. If you have watched the social dilemma on Netflix, you would realize that Facebook’s real customer isn’t everyday users. Instead, users are the product, and they are being sold to advertisers. The company has created such an engaging and sticky service that users are more than happy to be using their apps, despite knowing that their data is being sold from one company to another. As appalling as it is, they’re indifferent to it all and still find the value in using the company’s products on a daily basis – keeping in touch with distant relatives, chatting with friends, staying up to date with the latest fashion trends and news… (According to the&nbsp;Pew Research Center, more than a 1/3 of US adults say they get their news regularly from Facebook)</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7cb9d05bb00f3038cec301c72ef56827\" tg-width=\"608\" tg-height=\"378\"><span>(Source:Pew Research Center)</span></p>\n<p>To Facebook, this is equally as good as the more users, the wider the ‘product’ base that they have to offer their customers - advertisers. Advertisers are also indifferent to how Facebook attains its data, so long as Facebook’s targeting metrics and trackers are working well, the more likely it is that they are able to generate conversions. The more conversions, the more sales for them, the more ads they continue to pay for, the more revenue Facebook generates. Win-Win-Win, their apps are the bait, and the product (users), customers (advertisers), and supplier (Facebook), all walk away winners. It’s a remarkable business model that has stood the test of time and no matter the amount of controversy around the business, founders, and its practices, it isn’t going anywhere anytime soon and for one simple reason: Users likely can’t do without Facebook’s products whether they are willing to admit it or not.</p>\n<p>When we look back in the past to reflect on how the #StopHateForProfit Campaign turned out for the company, it is apparent that the impact it had on the top and bottom line were both minimal. The boycott was one that arose due to Facebook’s bad hate speech regulations and policing, and because of the laissez-faire attitude toward posts from then President, Donald Trump. More than&nbsp;1000 companies publicly committed&nbsp;to boycotting the social media giant in June/July (coinciding with end Q2 and start Q3) and many of the top 100 advertisers based on ad spend such as Nike, Adidas, Puma, Coca-Cola, all revised their budgets downwards.</p>\n<p>Despite this, Facebook&nbsp;beat on Q2 earnings&nbsp;and saw an increase of&nbsp;10.7% YOY. In its forward guidance, the company also announced that for July, they were anticipating a slowdown in YoY growth of 17% but was still due to see a 10% increase. They alsoanticipatedthe slowdown in growth to last through till October. However, the company did not attribute this slowdown to the boycott specifically but to 3 other major headwinds. With the benefit of hindsight, we can now see that even for Q3’20, the firm saw an impressive 21.6% rise in its top line, with the bottom line still registering a 12.2% improvement in NPM for Q2’20 YoY and a 200 bps NPM improvement in Q3.</p>\n<p>The results are clear and indicative of a few things. The boycott by the largest companies did little to Facebook’s financial story as they still managed to register growth and did not see significant pullbacks that were material. This can be tied to the fact that most of Facebook’s advertisers are SMBs. Although certain few SMBs did join the boycott, most didn’t, and the firm still had their impressive 9 million + customer base to rely on. If anything, this also suggests that despite what any SMB stands for and whether they agree with a social cause or not, it is hard for them to find alternatives that they can shift to on a similar pricing scale. Big brands can easily pivot to other advertisements such as TV and radio commercials but SMBs simply can’t because of smaller budgets. Lastly, it is now clear that the campaign affected Facebook’s reputation more so than it did its cashflow.</p>\n<p><b>Risks</b></p>\n<p>Other risks that the company may face would be future antitrust lawsuits. As it is, the company is already facing allegations of being a monopoly based on their aggressive acquisitive history having acquired more than90 other companiessince inception. They were alsofined US$5 BNby the FTC in 2019 and were required to adopt their policies and employ new protections for the users and their data that has been shared.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f694ca79d59162e95f05335ebefbca3d\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"384\"><span>(Source: TIKR.com)</span></p>\n<p>Though representative of a historic penalty and the largest ever imposed on a company for violating user’s privacy rights, the US$5BN was a drop in the bucket for the giant that went on to generate US$70+ BN dollars for the year.</p>\n<p>The current issues that they have with Apple’s new iOS changes and the IDFA implications are also likely not going to have a substantial impact on the firm. The Identifier for Advertisers [IDFA] is a random device identifier assigned by Apple to a user's device. Advertisers use this to track data so they can deliver customized advertising on mobile. With the new iOS changes, Apple essentially programmed it such that each app that wants to use these identifiers will have to ask users to opt in for tracking when the app is first launched. If users opt out, the app can’t track certain data and Facebook will have a smaller database of points to rely upon. As consumer preferences change, so will Facebook’s targeting that relies on IDFAs get worse and less effective due to outdated data points.</p>\n<p>According to aCNBC article:</p>\n<blockquote>\n Most critically at stake for Facebook is what’s known as view-through conversions. This metric is used by ad-tech companies to measure how many users saw an ad, did not immediately click on it, but later made a purchase related to that ad.”\n</blockquote>\n<p>When the conversion is made later on, the data IDFA for that particular user is then shared by the retailer to Facebook which is then used by the company to see if it matches the IDFA of the user who saw the ad. If they pair, it indicates that the ad was useful in generating a conversion. This data performance is then relayed to advertisers so that they can tweak their ad strategies accordingly. Withas much as 96% of usersanticipated to opt out of tracking on all apps, this would mean that mobile ads on 3rdparty apps may no longer be as useful if Facebook cannot really judge its effectiveness anymore. The more ineffective the ads become, the less conversions for retailers, and the more they pivot to other advertising platforms, which will impact the revenues for the firm.</p>\n<p>However, Facebook has disclosed that this will particularly only affect one form of advertisement which relies heavily on the IDFA, known as Audience Networks. Fortunately, the audience network segment only represents less than 10% of the firm’s total revenues. With the impact estimating to cost a drop in50% of all ads deliveredand hence sales from this segment, this would atbest represent a 5% drop in their total revenues. With that said, we do not anticipate that this will be present significant impact moving forward and the firm can easily recoup the 5% loss at worse by focusing on increasing ARPUs and user engagement to save their core business.</p>\n<p>Though Facebook started by disclosing that they anticipated the impact on their revenues to be large at first, this no longer seems to be the case. If anything, history has shown us that Mark is not one to back down and if he doesn’t get his way, he damn well will find another way to minimise loss and increase revenue generation in other segments to make up for it. If you aren’t too involved in the technicalities, we think it’s safe to bet on the jockey in this case. Besides, AR / VR growth,WhatsApp monetization, Reels monetization, further user growth in less developed countries away from the legacy North America and Europe region can very well pick up the lost (US$5BN) in sales.</p>\n<p><b>Moat</b></p>\n<p>As mentioned above, the DAUs and MAUs for Facebook are very impressive with a large portion of the world using at least 1 of their products. The moat for the business relies on the wide user base that Facebook has meticulously built over the course of 17 years. With any new product that they have, the firm can easily roll it out to their database of users and expect demand to pick up in a matter of weeks, maybe even days. That is the power of the network of Facebook that really can’t be valued.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2057a83640201edd89430e754f3f8525\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"431\"><span>(Source: FB Q1’21 Presentation)</span></p>\n<p>Despite the controversy, endless allegations, and negative headlines one after the other, the numbers don’t lie. DAUs have been increasing every single quarter, with the fastest growth observed in Asia-Pacific and the rest of the world. US &amp; Canada growth has slowed as it nears saturation levels, and this is perfectly normal and to be expected. The way we anticipate Facebook to grow their core cash cow business moving forward is clean. 1) Focus on growing ARPUs in their saturated legacy areas (US &amp; Canada and Europe) as well as 2) Increase User Growth by Geography in their growth areas (Asia-Pacific and the Rest of the World). Unsurprisingly, Facebook has been focused on doing just that.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ce3456321584d2eea288f7e410215571\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"388\"><span>(Source: FB Q1’21 Presentation)</span></p>\n<p>When we look to the infamous metric for judging social media companies and their performance – ARPUs, we can see that in the legacy areas, ARPUs have been increasing at a faster pace than compared to growth areas. This falls in line with point number 1 as mentioned above. The legacy areas have already reached saturation levels and user growth is unable to grow at astounding rates anymore. However, since this represent areas that are more developed and generally have higher disposable incomes on the average, focusing on increasing ARPUs and monetizing advertisers is the right strategy and a very feasible one. Though the growth areas are also seeing ARPUs grow YoY as they should, they are not at the same pace as in the US &amp; Canada and Europe. When we look to revenue generated by geography below, this confirms the thesis that revenue is growing faster than user base in those areas, and since ARPU equal to (Total Revenue from that Geography / Number of Users in that area), so long revenue is growing at a faster pace than the user base, they should increase meaningfully.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/84eaec3de9bafd595bf4ecf9ffdae16a\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"430\"><span>(Source: FB Q1’21 Presentation)</span></p>\n<p>When we look to the slide below, it is also apparent that user numbers are growing much faster in Asia-Pacific and the rest of the world, away from the legacy areas. Across 2 years, MAUs which is the broadest business performance metric employed by Facebook, grew 22.4% and 25.4% in the growth areas while they only grew a mere 6.6% in US &amp; Canada and 10.2% in Europe.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2d72be6c3ca7eb809567503ffc1d4ed9\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"395\"><span>(Source: FB Q1’21 Presentation)</span></p>\n<p>If Facebook can continue to grow their user engagement numbers in the growth areas whilst maximizing ARPUs in legacy areas, the company can easily ensure that the core advertising model will remain the cash cow of the business, funding growth for their other product developments.</p>\n<p><b>Growth Tactics</b></p>\n<p>When we look to potential growth Facebook has, the company isn’t short of any. Facebook has moved to monetizeWhatsApp, where they plan to generate fees from payments made within the app itself as well as through in-app status advertisements. The company is essentially trying to integrate the growth and TAM of the E-commerce market more seamlessly into their family of products including the likes ofWhatsApp. ThroughFacebook Pay, users can now engage in peer-to-peer payments withinWhatsApp itself at no cost. However, when businesses receive a fee from customers through the app itself, they will then have to pay a small ‘processing fee’ to Facebook and this is where it profits. This is the same method that is being employed by Shopify and all the other payment processing channels just that it is now being done locally inWhatsApp itself.WhatsApp payments has launched in Brazil, the 2nd largest market by users and the fee stands at 3.99%.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4d1d27ff399e3e6fdfbc44a3ff1fb6e6\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"557\"><span>(Source:Facebook Newsroom)</span></p>\n<p>The firm has also been trying to grow their presence in the E-commerce market and reduce the friction customers experience when clicking through ads on its platforms. Both Instagram checkout and Facebook shops are aimed at doing just that. Their shops solutions are also expanding toWhatsApp, and the marketplace as observed above. The company sees a major shift to online shopping even after the grand reopening of the economies. As part of its effort over the years, they now have 1.2M active shops across their platforms and more than 300M monthly shop visitors. Thelatest releasestates that:</p>\n<blockquote>\n Soon, we’ll give businesses in select countries the option to showcase their Shop inWhatsApp. In the US, we’ll enable them to bring Shops products into Marketplace, helping them reach the more than 1 billion people globally who visit each month.\n</blockquote>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/38d87012cd9e376a0bed27a095b01828\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"418\"><span>(Source:Facebook Newsroom)</span></p>\n<p>What’s even more fascinating is the fact that Facebook now plans to integrate new technologies such as AR Dynamic Ads to power the future of shopping. New visual discovery tools on their platforms like Instagram will help customers find new products that they resonate with faster than ever before and help them to visualize their products with AR experiences that they have been working on for a long time now.</p>\n<p>Their continued expansion in the AR/VR market along with the rollout of DIEM, their native digital currency functioning as a stablecoin that was once under the “Libra Project” also presents good growth opportunity in the near future. Facebook is also looking to introducepodcasts and live audio streamsas part of the beginning of their audio journey. In short, Facebook still has a lot of room to grow moving forward apart from looking to squeeze out more cash from their legacy advertising business model. However, as always, product development is one thing, but the financials do need to shape up as well and with Facebook it does.</p>\n<p><b>Financials</b></p>\n<p>Of the FAANG stock group, Facebook enjoys one of the highest margins. The company saw 80.55% in GM in Q1’21 and even in the past, it has enjoyed such high margins, trading between 80.5% to as high as 86.6% in FY17. The chart below also clearly indicates that the remarkable margins trickle down to the bottom line and aren’t wiped out due to operating expenses, registering a NPM of 35.7%.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1367468f26c73bde43f494b2b7fb49d6\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"467\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p>\n<p>FB also routinely spends a large portion of their revenues on R&amp;D, reinvesting into the business YoY to further improve their products and innovate on new ones. In 2020 the R&amp;D expense represented 21.5% of total sales.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4b923685aa0489833ae8f50fcddf3601\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"384\"><span>(Source: TIKR.com)</span></p>\n<p>A large chunk of the firms’ revenues is also retained on the balance sheet which is then used over the years to funnel money to continue their acquisitive culture. Despite this, the strong cashflow that the firm enjoys allows it to stay at the top of their industry in terms of innovation whilst ensuring that their treasure trove of cash is growing should there be a need to deploy it. When we look to liquid cash that the firm holds (Cash &amp; Equivalents, and STI), Facebook has grown it at a tremendous CAGR of 26.2%. Net Debt has also just been becoming less of a concern over the years. To date, even after the pandemic, Facebook has no debt.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/13b40cadc31458233d0ea83ce4917c33\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"384\"><span>(Source: TIKR.com)</span></p>\n<p>Given the data above, it is evident that the firm has one of the most pristine balance sheets in the industry and in the whole stock market. The US$62 BN that they hold as cash presents itself as a massive buffer to cushion the impact of whatever comes their way, be it another acquisitive opportunity, or yet another fine. Either way, the company can weather any financial storm and near balance sheet issues aren’t a problem. Shareholders aren’t too pleased with the cash pile just sitting there and would instead rather the firm start paying a dividend or pick up the pace in share buybacks to maximize investor returns. Facebook has never paid a dividend in its entirety and although they may consider that moving forward, we anticipate that it is not a move that they will commit to. In any case, we ourselves hope that they commit to more share buybacks instead of moving to issue a dividend.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3f5b82506a0385a1265c494b21462678\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"43\"><span>(Source:Q1 10-K Filing SEC)</span></p>\n<p>In their 10-K filing, the company expanded their SRP program to include an additional US$25 BN which will be added atop the US$8.6 BN remaining from a 2017 authorization. That amounts to a current authorized SRP valued at around US$33.6 BN and we anticipate that this may further increase substantially moving forward. Despite outstanding shares reducing overtime, a large part is offset by additional equity issued as part of SBC to employees. It is disappointing that the firm isn’t making more of a definitive move to put that cash pile to use but this is nonetheless not a major red flag.</p>\n<p><b>Valuations</b></p>\n<p>Being a blue-chip company with strong FCF, we would normally value the social media giant with a DCF model. Today, however, we will be looking at EV/Sales and P/E Ratios to try and justify its future valuation, looking 3 years out as always to end 2023.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0878b205b837634b7d2528f57ebe84fc\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"321\"><span>(Source:Seeking Alpha)</span></p>\n<p>Looking 3 years out to end 23, Facebook is projected to grow revenues at an average of 23.4%, with growth in the 30s for this fiscal year. That would mean that Facebook is anticipated to grow revenues to US$160.8 BN by end 2023, up 87% from what they delivered in FY20 in 3 years.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1707f8cfee45ce9ebb0e3ac961e78f48\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"338\"><span>(Source: TIKR.com)</span></p>\n<p>Since 2018, the firm has traded at an average EV/Sales of 8.85, and last exchanged hands at a multiple of 9.76. Although the firm is trading at a multiple above its mean and higher than any of the other stocks as part of the FAANG group, Facebook does have higher estimates than all the other companies in the near future as observed below. The data does not reflect estimates for 2023.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/444e1473e814530e2332cea02637af53\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"384\"><span>(Source: TIKR.com)</span></p>\n<p>Moreover, when we look further into the past all the way back to 2013, the company has historically traded at an average of 12.82 and even registered a high close to 22 in 2014. However, since we want to be conservative, but believe that the market has yet to really price Facebook for what it’s worth given all the headline risks in the media that have induced immediate selloffs without any fundamental reason, we will employ a multiple of 9.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8494d3084eed106a9cb0bff0f27cfe7a\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"384\"><span>(Source: TIKR.com)</span></p>\n<p>At an EV/Sales multiple of 9, that would put Facebook at a US$1.447 TRN dollar valuation by the end of 2023 and a share price of US$539, an upside of 58%.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/55014da5e82d1a67caaeb34766b35940\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"294\"><span>(Source:Seeking Alpha)</span></p>\n<p>When we look to revenue surprise and analyst estimate beat / miss trends, Facebook has quite the historical track record of surpassing estimates, having done so 10/12 times in the past 3 years. The average upside surprise stands at 3.59%. Assuming Facebook will continue to deliver the same upside surprise moving forward, a 3.59% beat to the top line estimate of 2023 would warrant revenues of US$166.57 BN. At the same EV/Sales ratio of 9, that would render a higher valuation of US$558.77 USD. Given that Facebook is very close to crossing the US$1 TRN dollar valuation mark, we anticipate this to be a very realistic price target.</p>\n<p>Now shifting on to another valuation method by P/E multiples, the valuation also paints a similar picture.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5d67f3c257657bc10ee6be38c16d2a1f\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"207\"><span>(Source:Seeking Alpha)</span></p>\n<p>Turning to earnings estimates, the company is also projected to do high-teens digit growth for 2022 and 2023 and a close to 30% growth in the bottom line for this fiscal year.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ffe26a8eabec7045dc5a904497737623\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"501\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p>\n<p>Despite trading at the highest EV / Sales ratio of the FAANG stocks, Facebook is trading at the lowest TTM normalized PE Ratio amongst its peers, with the inclusion of Microsoft (FANGMA). This is likely due to the market failing to internalize and appreciate the company’s high NPM and profitability. Currently trading at a P/E ratio of 29.14, this is also below its historical means of as high as 60+ in 2016.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/247661f12f62820f6266763f49531355\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"417\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p>\n<p>However, given that earnings have improved dramatically since and likely won’t be revisiting those levels as seen from the forward estimates, we will stick with what we believe to be a fair multiple for the stickiest company in the world, 30. At a P/E ratio of 30, that would put the end 2023 share price somewhere near levels of US$531.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ce908799f1bf9091b49b94e03db7e476\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"284\"><span>(Source:Seeking Alpha)</span></p>\n<p>However, because of a surprisingly good earnings-beat track record once again, this has to be factored in moving forward. Of the last 3 years, Facebook has beat earnings 11/12 times. The average beat comes in at 15.72%. If we were to stick to a similar but more conservative beat of say 7%, that would put 2023 normalized earnings at 18.93. The exact same P/E ratio would now warrant a realistic share price of US$567.8, an upside of 66.3%.</p>\n<p>With all 4 estimates using different methods and assumptions with different levels of conservatism employed delivering a potential share price anywhere between US$531 and US$568, it would be fair to conclude that this is a realistic price target for the cashflow king 3 years out into the future. At the low end of estimates of US$531, this is still indicative of a 55% upside.</p>\n<p><b>Investor Takeaways</b></p>\n<p>To conclude, we believe Facebook has a very strong future ahead and the projected numbers for both the Topline and Bottom line are indicative of potential upside. We place significant emphasis on forward estimates as markets are future discounting mechanisms that react accordingly. The company enjoys unbelievably high margins, has a pristine balance sheet with absolutely no debt, and is anticipated to keep raking in high revenues with strong cashflow numbers.</p>\n<p>With so many growth opportunities such as the monetization ofWhatsApp, AR/VR, shops, marketplace growth, DIEM, and the continued growth in its legacy advertisement business both in terms of MAP and ARPUs, Facebook is here to stay and is nowhere near exhausting its full potential. The sizeable TAMs in each of the different business segments combined with other opportunities such as Facebook Reels which we did not cover, and the fact that it has yet to have been monetized, all point to a bright future.</p>\n<p>That being said, it is a given that the company will face many other bumps along moving forward. Facebook will continue to be subjected to what we call ‘headline risks’ whereby the stock will be overly sold off to the downside based upon nothing fundamental but one-sided exaggerated narratives. This we believe presents the best time to pick up shares and accumulate for the long run. Facebook has been perceived to have engaged in a lot of dubious unethical behaviour surrounding user data but like we said, that is separate from the investment opportunity the company presents and we will leave that to you to decide. Granted that there are many reasons surrounding the company's beat-down reputation, the return on invested capital is a different story and the main one to be focused on when considering if a company is a good investment or not.</p>\n<p>End day, when it comes to blue-chip stocks that have a firm hold in the industry, good sticky products, and solid financials, it is hard for the stock not to trend up overtime so long as estimates paint a bright picture and most importantly, the markets continue to value them in the same rational way. This has not always been the case and can be easily seen from Microsoft’s outperformance hiatus when the Dot Com bubble crashed, and the stock took 17 years to put in a new high. Still, we believe blue chip stocks are a good bet as of now and should be a part of everyone’s portfolio, and Facebook presents the best buy of the FAANG from our perspective. Till next time!</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Facebook: Simply Unstoppable</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nFacebook: Simply Unstoppable\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-06-29 16:46 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4437000-facebook-simply-unstoppable><strong>seekingalpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Summary\n\nThe #StopHateforProfit Campaign, antitrust allegations, Apple IDFA issue, and a host of other historical issues have not stopped the social media giant and will not stop it.\nDespite an ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4437000-facebook-simply-unstoppable\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4437000-facebook-simply-unstoppable","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1100563900","content_text":"Summary\n\nThe #StopHateforProfit Campaign, antitrust allegations, Apple IDFA issue, and a host of other historical issues have not stopped the social media giant and will not stop it.\nDespite an impressive rally delivering 65% since the start of CY20 and 26% YTD, Facebook remains undervalued relative to its peers and the FAANG stocks with the best forward estimates.\nThe strong moat originating from their sheer user base, and sizeable TAMs in E-commerce, VR/AR, digital assets (DIEM), cumulatively make for a compelling growth story.\nAlthough the company is highly controversial and rightfully so, this article focuses more on the quantitative analysis and less on the morals and ethics behind this investment. That, we shall leave to you.\n\nnemke/E+ via Getty Images\nInvestment Thesis\nFacebook (FB) has had a volatile trading period the past few years with a general uptrend, delivering shareholders nice returns whilst subjecting them to a few major dips which presented investors an opportunity for a steal. Despite the controversy and headline risks every now and then, the company has been able to battle through them and emerge ever so stronger. The company’s financials have been holding up and shows no sign of stoppage anytime soon. In a time as such, with significant uncertainty in the macro environment and inflation fears creeping up, we believe that shifting some of your assets to high cashflow generating companies is a wise strategy that will pay off. Growth and value are 2 different things, and there still exists growth companies that are undervalued and can still generate substantial cashflow, and we believe Facebook is one of them. The company also remains to be one of the more attractive blue-chip stocks compared to the others in the FAANG. We employ a 3–5-year outlook and have been bullish since USD$200/share. Let’s Begin!\nWhat is Facebook\nKnown to all, Facebook is a social media giant with a family of products including the likes of Facebook, Instagram,WhatsApp, Messenger, and now Oculus. The firm essentially has a stronghold in the social media industry and has an impressive DAP of2.72 BN as of Q1’21and MAP of 3.45 BN.\n(Source:FB Q1’21 Presentation)\nThe world has7.874 BNpeople as of the time of this writing and that would mean that 43.8% of all the people in the world use some form of product from Facebook’s portfolio in the past 30 days. On a daily basis, 34.5% of the people in the world use it. If that isn’t a sticky service, nothing really is. If we were to focus on the usage of the Facebook app solely, 23.8% of the world logs into the app daily based on DAUs.\nThe firm was founded in 2004 and generates the majority of their revenue from advertisements. If you have watched the social dilemma on Netflix, you would realize that Facebook’s real customer isn’t everyday users. Instead, users are the product, and they are being sold to advertisers. The company has created such an engaging and sticky service that users are more than happy to be using their apps, despite knowing that their data is being sold from one company to another. As appalling as it is, they’re indifferent to it all and still find the value in using the company’s products on a daily basis – keeping in touch with distant relatives, chatting with friends, staying up to date with the latest fashion trends and news… (According to the Pew Research Center, more than a 1/3 of US adults say they get their news regularly from Facebook)\n(Source:Pew Research Center)\nTo Facebook, this is equally as good as the more users, the wider the ‘product’ base that they have to offer their customers - advertisers. Advertisers are also indifferent to how Facebook attains its data, so long as Facebook’s targeting metrics and trackers are working well, the more likely it is that they are able to generate conversions. The more conversions, the more sales for them, the more ads they continue to pay for, the more revenue Facebook generates. Win-Win-Win, their apps are the bait, and the product (users), customers (advertisers), and supplier (Facebook), all walk away winners. It’s a remarkable business model that has stood the test of time and no matter the amount of controversy around the business, founders, and its practices, it isn’t going anywhere anytime soon and for one simple reason: Users likely can’t do without Facebook’s products whether they are willing to admit it or not.\nWhen we look back in the past to reflect on how the #StopHateForProfit Campaign turned out for the company, it is apparent that the impact it had on the top and bottom line were both minimal. The boycott was one that arose due to Facebook’s bad hate speech regulations and policing, and because of the laissez-faire attitude toward posts from then President, Donald Trump. More than 1000 companies publicly committed to boycotting the social media giant in June/July (coinciding with end Q2 and start Q3) and many of the top 100 advertisers based on ad spend such as Nike, Adidas, Puma, Coca-Cola, all revised their budgets downwards.\nDespite this, Facebook beat on Q2 earnings and saw an increase of 10.7% YOY. In its forward guidance, the company also announced that for July, they were anticipating a slowdown in YoY growth of 17% but was still due to see a 10% increase. They alsoanticipatedthe slowdown in growth to last through till October. However, the company did not attribute this slowdown to the boycott specifically but to 3 other major headwinds. With the benefit of hindsight, we can now see that even for Q3’20, the firm saw an impressive 21.6% rise in its top line, with the bottom line still registering a 12.2% improvement in NPM for Q2’20 YoY and a 200 bps NPM improvement in Q3.\nThe results are clear and indicative of a few things. The boycott by the largest companies did little to Facebook’s financial story as they still managed to register growth and did not see significant pullbacks that were material. This can be tied to the fact that most of Facebook’s advertisers are SMBs. Although certain few SMBs did join the boycott, most didn’t, and the firm still had their impressive 9 million + customer base to rely on. If anything, this also suggests that despite what any SMB stands for and whether they agree with a social cause or not, it is hard for them to find alternatives that they can shift to on a similar pricing scale. Big brands can easily pivot to other advertisements such as TV and radio commercials but SMBs simply can’t because of smaller budgets. Lastly, it is now clear that the campaign affected Facebook’s reputation more so than it did its cashflow.\nRisks\nOther risks that the company may face would be future antitrust lawsuits. As it is, the company is already facing allegations of being a monopoly based on their aggressive acquisitive history having acquired more than90 other companiessince inception. They were alsofined US$5 BNby the FTC in 2019 and were required to adopt their policies and employ new protections for the users and their data that has been shared.\n(Source: TIKR.com)\nThough representative of a historic penalty and the largest ever imposed on a company for violating user’s privacy rights, the US$5BN was a drop in the bucket for the giant that went on to generate US$70+ BN dollars for the year.\nThe current issues that they have with Apple’s new iOS changes and the IDFA implications are also likely not going to have a substantial impact on the firm. The Identifier for Advertisers [IDFA] is a random device identifier assigned by Apple to a user's device. Advertisers use this to track data so they can deliver customized advertising on mobile. With the new iOS changes, Apple essentially programmed it such that each app that wants to use these identifiers will have to ask users to opt in for tracking when the app is first launched. If users opt out, the app can’t track certain data and Facebook will have a smaller database of points to rely upon. As consumer preferences change, so will Facebook’s targeting that relies on IDFAs get worse and less effective due to outdated data points.\nAccording to aCNBC article:\n\n Most critically at stake for Facebook is what’s known as view-through conversions. This metric is used by ad-tech companies to measure how many users saw an ad, did not immediately click on it, but later made a purchase related to that ad.”\n\nWhen the conversion is made later on, the data IDFA for that particular user is then shared by the retailer to Facebook which is then used by the company to see if it matches the IDFA of the user who saw the ad. If they pair, it indicates that the ad was useful in generating a conversion. This data performance is then relayed to advertisers so that they can tweak their ad strategies accordingly. Withas much as 96% of usersanticipated to opt out of tracking on all apps, this would mean that mobile ads on 3rdparty apps may no longer be as useful if Facebook cannot really judge its effectiveness anymore. The more ineffective the ads become, the less conversions for retailers, and the more they pivot to other advertising platforms, which will impact the revenues for the firm.\nHowever, Facebook has disclosed that this will particularly only affect one form of advertisement which relies heavily on the IDFA, known as Audience Networks. Fortunately, the audience network segment only represents less than 10% of the firm’s total revenues. With the impact estimating to cost a drop in50% of all ads deliveredand hence sales from this segment, this would atbest represent a 5% drop in their total revenues. With that said, we do not anticipate that this will be present significant impact moving forward and the firm can easily recoup the 5% loss at worse by focusing on increasing ARPUs and user engagement to save their core business.\nThough Facebook started by disclosing that they anticipated the impact on their revenues to be large at first, this no longer seems to be the case. If anything, history has shown us that Mark is not one to back down and if he doesn’t get his way, he damn well will find another way to minimise loss and increase revenue generation in other segments to make up for it. If you aren’t too involved in the technicalities, we think it’s safe to bet on the jockey in this case. Besides, AR / VR growth,WhatsApp monetization, Reels monetization, further user growth in less developed countries away from the legacy North America and Europe region can very well pick up the lost (US$5BN) in sales.\nMoat\nAs mentioned above, the DAUs and MAUs for Facebook are very impressive with a large portion of the world using at least 1 of their products. The moat for the business relies on the wide user base that Facebook has meticulously built over the course of 17 years. With any new product that they have, the firm can easily roll it out to their database of users and expect demand to pick up in a matter of weeks, maybe even days. That is the power of the network of Facebook that really can’t be valued.\n(Source: FB Q1’21 Presentation)\nDespite the controversy, endless allegations, and negative headlines one after the other, the numbers don’t lie. DAUs have been increasing every single quarter, with the fastest growth observed in Asia-Pacific and the rest of the world. US & Canada growth has slowed as it nears saturation levels, and this is perfectly normal and to be expected. The way we anticipate Facebook to grow their core cash cow business moving forward is clean. 1) Focus on growing ARPUs in their saturated legacy areas (US & Canada and Europe) as well as 2) Increase User Growth by Geography in their growth areas (Asia-Pacific and the Rest of the World). Unsurprisingly, Facebook has been focused on doing just that.\n(Source: FB Q1’21 Presentation)\nWhen we look to the infamous metric for judging social media companies and their performance – ARPUs, we can see that in the legacy areas, ARPUs have been increasing at a faster pace than compared to growth areas. This falls in line with point number 1 as mentioned above. The legacy areas have already reached saturation levels and user growth is unable to grow at astounding rates anymore. However, since this represent areas that are more developed and generally have higher disposable incomes on the average, focusing on increasing ARPUs and monetizing advertisers is the right strategy and a very feasible one. Though the growth areas are also seeing ARPUs grow YoY as they should, they are not at the same pace as in the US & Canada and Europe. When we look to revenue generated by geography below, this confirms the thesis that revenue is growing faster than user base in those areas, and since ARPU equal to (Total Revenue from that Geography / Number of Users in that area), so long revenue is growing at a faster pace than the user base, they should increase meaningfully.\n(Source: FB Q1’21 Presentation)\nWhen we look to the slide below, it is also apparent that user numbers are growing much faster in Asia-Pacific and the rest of the world, away from the legacy areas. Across 2 years, MAUs which is the broadest business performance metric employed by Facebook, grew 22.4% and 25.4% in the growth areas while they only grew a mere 6.6% in US & Canada and 10.2% in Europe.\n(Source: FB Q1’21 Presentation)\nIf Facebook can continue to grow their user engagement numbers in the growth areas whilst maximizing ARPUs in legacy areas, the company can easily ensure that the core advertising model will remain the cash cow of the business, funding growth for their other product developments.\nGrowth Tactics\nWhen we look to potential growth Facebook has, the company isn’t short of any. Facebook has moved to monetizeWhatsApp, where they plan to generate fees from payments made within the app itself as well as through in-app status advertisements. The company is essentially trying to integrate the growth and TAM of the E-commerce market more seamlessly into their family of products including the likes ofWhatsApp. ThroughFacebook Pay, users can now engage in peer-to-peer payments withinWhatsApp itself at no cost. However, when businesses receive a fee from customers through the app itself, they will then have to pay a small ‘processing fee’ to Facebook and this is where it profits. This is the same method that is being employed by Shopify and all the other payment processing channels just that it is now being done locally inWhatsApp itself.WhatsApp payments has launched in Brazil, the 2nd largest market by users and the fee stands at 3.99%.\n(Source:Facebook Newsroom)\nThe firm has also been trying to grow their presence in the E-commerce market and reduce the friction customers experience when clicking through ads on its platforms. Both Instagram checkout and Facebook shops are aimed at doing just that. Their shops solutions are also expanding toWhatsApp, and the marketplace as observed above. The company sees a major shift to online shopping even after the grand reopening of the economies. As part of its effort over the years, they now have 1.2M active shops across their platforms and more than 300M monthly shop visitors. Thelatest releasestates that:\n\n Soon, we’ll give businesses in select countries the option to showcase their Shop inWhatsApp. In the US, we’ll enable them to bring Shops products into Marketplace, helping them reach the more than 1 billion people globally who visit each month.\n\n(Source:Facebook Newsroom)\nWhat’s even more fascinating is the fact that Facebook now plans to integrate new technologies such as AR Dynamic Ads to power the future of shopping. New visual discovery tools on their platforms like Instagram will help customers find new products that they resonate with faster than ever before and help them to visualize their products with AR experiences that they have been working on for a long time now.\nTheir continued expansion in the AR/VR market along with the rollout of DIEM, their native digital currency functioning as a stablecoin that was once under the “Libra Project” also presents good growth opportunity in the near future. Facebook is also looking to introducepodcasts and live audio streamsas part of the beginning of their audio journey. In short, Facebook still has a lot of room to grow moving forward apart from looking to squeeze out more cash from their legacy advertising business model. However, as always, product development is one thing, but the financials do need to shape up as well and with Facebook it does.\nFinancials\nOf the FAANG stock group, Facebook enjoys one of the highest margins. The company saw 80.55% in GM in Q1’21 and even in the past, it has enjoyed such high margins, trading between 80.5% to as high as 86.6% in FY17. The chart below also clearly indicates that the remarkable margins trickle down to the bottom line and aren’t wiped out due to operating expenses, registering a NPM of 35.7%.\nData by YCharts\nFB also routinely spends a large portion of their revenues on R&D, reinvesting into the business YoY to further improve their products and innovate on new ones. In 2020 the R&D expense represented 21.5% of total sales.\n(Source: TIKR.com)\nA large chunk of the firms’ revenues is also retained on the balance sheet which is then used over the years to funnel money to continue their acquisitive culture. Despite this, the strong cashflow that the firm enjoys allows it to stay at the top of their industry in terms of innovation whilst ensuring that their treasure trove of cash is growing should there be a need to deploy it. When we look to liquid cash that the firm holds (Cash & Equivalents, and STI), Facebook has grown it at a tremendous CAGR of 26.2%. Net Debt has also just been becoming less of a concern over the years. To date, even after the pandemic, Facebook has no debt.\n(Source: TIKR.com)\nGiven the data above, it is evident that the firm has one of the most pristine balance sheets in the industry and in the whole stock market. The US$62 BN that they hold as cash presents itself as a massive buffer to cushion the impact of whatever comes their way, be it another acquisitive opportunity, or yet another fine. Either way, the company can weather any financial storm and near balance sheet issues aren’t a problem. Shareholders aren’t too pleased with the cash pile just sitting there and would instead rather the firm start paying a dividend or pick up the pace in share buybacks to maximize investor returns. Facebook has never paid a dividend in its entirety and although they may consider that moving forward, we anticipate that it is not a move that they will commit to. In any case, we ourselves hope that they commit to more share buybacks instead of moving to issue a dividend.\n(Source:Q1 10-K Filing SEC)\nIn their 10-K filing, the company expanded their SRP program to include an additional US$25 BN which will be added atop the US$8.6 BN remaining from a 2017 authorization. That amounts to a current authorized SRP valued at around US$33.6 BN and we anticipate that this may further increase substantially moving forward. Despite outstanding shares reducing overtime, a large part is offset by additional equity issued as part of SBC to employees. It is disappointing that the firm isn’t making more of a definitive move to put that cash pile to use but this is nonetheless not a major red flag.\nValuations\nBeing a blue-chip company with strong FCF, we would normally value the social media giant with a DCF model. Today, however, we will be looking at EV/Sales and P/E Ratios to try and justify its future valuation, looking 3 years out as always to end 2023.\n(Source:Seeking Alpha)\nLooking 3 years out to end 23, Facebook is projected to grow revenues at an average of 23.4%, with growth in the 30s for this fiscal year. That would mean that Facebook is anticipated to grow revenues to US$160.8 BN by end 2023, up 87% from what they delivered in FY20 in 3 years.\n(Source: TIKR.com)\nSince 2018, the firm has traded at an average EV/Sales of 8.85, and last exchanged hands at a multiple of 9.76. Although the firm is trading at a multiple above its mean and higher than any of the other stocks as part of the FAANG group, Facebook does have higher estimates than all the other companies in the near future as observed below. The data does not reflect estimates for 2023.\n(Source: TIKR.com)\nMoreover, when we look further into the past all the way back to 2013, the company has historically traded at an average of 12.82 and even registered a high close to 22 in 2014. However, since we want to be conservative, but believe that the market has yet to really price Facebook for what it’s worth given all the headline risks in the media that have induced immediate selloffs without any fundamental reason, we will employ a multiple of 9.\n(Source: TIKR.com)\nAt an EV/Sales multiple of 9, that would put Facebook at a US$1.447 TRN dollar valuation by the end of 2023 and a share price of US$539, an upside of 58%.\n(Source:Seeking Alpha)\nWhen we look to revenue surprise and analyst estimate beat / miss trends, Facebook has quite the historical track record of surpassing estimates, having done so 10/12 times in the past 3 years. The average upside surprise stands at 3.59%. Assuming Facebook will continue to deliver the same upside surprise moving forward, a 3.59% beat to the top line estimate of 2023 would warrant revenues of US$166.57 BN. At the same EV/Sales ratio of 9, that would render a higher valuation of US$558.77 USD. Given that Facebook is very close to crossing the US$1 TRN dollar valuation mark, we anticipate this to be a very realistic price target.\nNow shifting on to another valuation method by P/E multiples, the valuation also paints a similar picture.\n(Source:Seeking Alpha)\nTurning to earnings estimates, the company is also projected to do high-teens digit growth for 2022 and 2023 and a close to 30% growth in the bottom line for this fiscal year.\nData by YCharts\nDespite trading at the highest EV / Sales ratio of the FAANG stocks, Facebook is trading at the lowest TTM normalized PE Ratio amongst its peers, with the inclusion of Microsoft (FANGMA). This is likely due to the market failing to internalize and appreciate the company’s high NPM and profitability. Currently trading at a P/E ratio of 29.14, this is also below its historical means of as high as 60+ in 2016.\nData by YCharts\nHowever, given that earnings have improved dramatically since and likely won’t be revisiting those levels as seen from the forward estimates, we will stick with what we believe to be a fair multiple for the stickiest company in the world, 30. At a P/E ratio of 30, that would put the end 2023 share price somewhere near levels of US$531.\n(Source:Seeking Alpha)\nHowever, because of a surprisingly good earnings-beat track record once again, this has to be factored in moving forward. Of the last 3 years, Facebook has beat earnings 11/12 times. The average beat comes in at 15.72%. If we were to stick to a similar but more conservative beat of say 7%, that would put 2023 normalized earnings at 18.93. The exact same P/E ratio would now warrant a realistic share price of US$567.8, an upside of 66.3%.\nWith all 4 estimates using different methods and assumptions with different levels of conservatism employed delivering a potential share price anywhere between US$531 and US$568, it would be fair to conclude that this is a realistic price target for the cashflow king 3 years out into the future. At the low end of estimates of US$531, this is still indicative of a 55% upside.\nInvestor Takeaways\nTo conclude, we believe Facebook has a very strong future ahead and the projected numbers for both the Topline and Bottom line are indicative of potential upside. We place significant emphasis on forward estimates as markets are future discounting mechanisms that react accordingly. The company enjoys unbelievably high margins, has a pristine balance sheet with absolutely no debt, and is anticipated to keep raking in high revenues with strong cashflow numbers.\nWith so many growth opportunities such as the monetization ofWhatsApp, AR/VR, shops, marketplace growth, DIEM, and the continued growth in its legacy advertisement business both in terms of MAP and ARPUs, Facebook is here to stay and is nowhere near exhausting its full potential. The sizeable TAMs in each of the different business segments combined with other opportunities such as Facebook Reels which we did not cover, and the fact that it has yet to have been monetized, all point to a bright future.\nThat being said, it is a given that the company will face many other bumps along moving forward. Facebook will continue to be subjected to what we call ‘headline risks’ whereby the stock will be overly sold off to the downside based upon nothing fundamental but one-sided exaggerated narratives. This we believe presents the best time to pick up shares and accumulate for the long run. Facebook has been perceived to have engaged in a lot of dubious unethical behaviour surrounding user data but like we said, that is separate from the investment opportunity the company presents and we will leave that to you to decide. Granted that there are many reasons surrounding the company's beat-down reputation, the return on invested capital is a different story and the main one to be focused on when considering if a company is a good investment or not.\nEnd day, when it comes to blue-chip stocks that have a firm hold in the industry, good sticky products, and solid financials, it is hard for the stock not to trend up overtime so long as estimates paint a bright picture and most importantly, the markets continue to value them in the same rational way. This has not always been the case and can be easily seen from Microsoft’s outperformance hiatus when the Dot Com bubble crashed, and the stock took 17 years to put in a new high. Still, we believe blue chip stocks are a good bet as of now and should be a part of everyone’s portfolio, and Facebook presents the best buy of the FAANG from our perspective. Till next time!","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":409,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":123376390,"gmtCreate":1624410729010,"gmtModify":1631890663417,"author":{"id":"3585096019201823","authorId":"3585096019201823","name":"ppangsy","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/20471738d34ed6efdb59281b8fc3b6c8","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3585096019201823","authorIdStr":"3585096019201823"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Not a good sign","listText":"Not a good sign","text":"Not a good sign","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/123376390","repostId":"1139503540","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":276,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":120167381,"gmtCreate":1624315939843,"gmtModify":1631890663422,"author":{"id":"3585096019201823","authorId":"3585096019201823","name":"ppangsy","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/20471738d34ed6efdb59281b8fc3b6c8","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3585096019201823","authorIdStr":"3585096019201823"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Great opportunity to buy on dip (pls like andcomment)","listText":"Great opportunity to buy on dip (pls like andcomment)","text":"Great opportunity to buy on dip (pls like andcomment)","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":7,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/120167381","repostId":"1179870522","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1179870522","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1624287984,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1179870522?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-21 23:06","market":"us","language":"en","title":"A correction could be coming. Here's how to protect your retirement portfolio from the dip","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1179870522","media":"cnbc","summary":"KEY POINTS\n\nThe Covid-19 recovery could have one more bump in the road: a market correction.\nA 10% t","content":"<div>\n<p>KEY POINTS\n\nThe Covid-19 recovery could have one more bump in the road: a market correction.\nA 10% to 20% market drop doesn't have to derail your short- and long-term goals.\nTake these steps to ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.cnbc.com/2021/06/21/a-correction-could-be-coming-how-to-protect-your-retirement-portfolio.html\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n","source":"cnbc_highlight","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>A correction could be coming. Here's how to protect your retirement portfolio from the dip</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nA correction could be coming. Here's how to protect your retirement portfolio from the dip\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-06-21 23:06 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.cnbc.com/2021/06/21/a-correction-could-be-coming-how-to-protect-your-retirement-portfolio.html><strong>cnbc</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>KEY POINTS\n\nThe Covid-19 recovery could have one more bump in the road: a market correction.\nA 10% to 20% market drop doesn't have to derail your short- and long-term goals.\nTake these steps to ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.cnbc.com/2021/06/21/a-correction-could-be-coming-how-to-protect-your-retirement-portfolio.html\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","SPY":"标普500ETF",".DJI":"道琼斯",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"source_url":"https://www.cnbc.com/2021/06/21/a-correction-could-be-coming-how-to-protect-your-retirement-portfolio.html","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/72bb72e1b84c09fca865c6dcb1bbcd16","article_id":"1179870522","content_text":"KEY POINTS\n\nThe Covid-19 recovery could have one more bump in the road: a market correction.\nA 10% to 20% market drop doesn't have to derail your short- and long-term goals.\nTake these steps to reevaluate your positions and make sure you're still on track.\n\nThere could be one more big bump in the road as the economy recovers from the Covid-19 pandemic: a market correction.\nMoody's Analytics economist Mark Zandi is warning theremay be a 10% to 20% pullbackin the markets prompted by the Federal Reserve's current policies.\nIn fact, the dip may have already started, Zandi said in aninterview with CNBCon Friday. And unlike some recent market drops, it may take time for stocks to make a full recovery, he said.\nExperts say you don't have to let a dip in the markets derail your retirement.\nWhen it comes to your 401(k), there's one piece of advice most financial experts agree on: Stick to your goals.\nPrioritize your near-term goals\nAs you evaluate your 401(k) and other investments in turbulent times, make sure to consider how soon you will need the money.\n\"Stock ownership should always be for a long-term hold: five-plus years,\" said financial advisor Scott Hanson, a certified financial planner and co-founder of Allworth Financial in Sacramento, California.\nIf you have money tied up in stocks that's earmarked for your child's tuition next semester or for a down payment for a house, now is the time to sell, Hanson said.\nFor goals with a time horizon of five years or less, consider moving that money to so-called stable value or fixed-income funds, said CFP Ted Jenkin, CEO of Oxygen Financial in Atlanta\nRemember your long-term time horizon\nWhen making decisions as to what actions fit you best, your age is key.\n\"If you're 70 years old, you have no business having 70% of your money in the stock market,\" Jenkin said. \"You should have 70% of your money in fixed income.\"\nMarguerita Cheng, a CFP and CEO of Blue Ocean Global Wealth in Gaithersburg, Maryland, said she encourages investors to allocate their investments in buckets.\nMoney for short-term goals should be in safe investments, while funds for intermediate and long-term needs can gradually get more risky.\nRetirees, in particular, may want to put money for required minimum distributions in a stable value fund or short-term bond fund, Cheng said, where they likely will not have to sell at a loss. Those mandatory distributions start when you reach age 72.\nBuy the dip\nDown or volatile markets provide an opportunity to buy stocks when prices are lower.\nThat means you want to keep contributing to your 401(k) or other retirement funds on a fixed schedule, Cheng said.\n\"If they're not comfortable, they can pare down the risk in their existing dollars, but keep their ongoing contributions the way they are,\" Cheng said.\nAnother tip to consider when markets are down: Ask your payroll department to take more out of your paycheck to put in your 401(k) for one pay period, Jenkin said.\nAs long as you have money in savings to pay your bills, putting more money in the market when markets are declining can mean a greater upside when it recovers. \"That can be a really good opportunity,\" Jenkin said.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":443,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":167361581,"gmtCreate":1624247752943,"gmtModify":1631890663424,"author":{"id":"3585096019201823","authorId":"3585096019201823","name":"ppangsy","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/20471738d34ed6efdb59281b8fc3b6c8","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3585096019201823","authorIdStr":"3585096019201823"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Something is changing (pls like and comment)","listText":"Something is changing (pls like and comment)","text":"Something is changing (pls like and comment)","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/167361581","repostId":"1177259531","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":517,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":163094762,"gmtCreate":1623852836756,"gmtModify":1631890663427,"author":{"id":"3585096019201823","authorId":"3585096019201823","name":"ppangsy","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/20471738d34ed6efdb59281b8fc3b6c8","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3585096019201823","authorIdStr":"3585096019201823"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"I think the crash is coming soon","listText":"I think the crash is coming soon","text":"I think the crash is coming soon","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":7,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/163094762","repostId":"2143794134","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":309,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":163092424,"gmtCreate":1623852792468,"gmtModify":1631890663434,"author":{"id":"3585096019201823","authorId":"3585096019201823","name":"ppangsy","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/20471738d34ed6efdb59281b8fc3b6c8","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3585096019201823","authorIdStr":"3585096019201823"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"I think the bear market is coming soon. Afterthe FOMC meeting that's due to happen tonight. Any thoughts?","listText":"I think the bear market is coming soon. Afterthe FOMC meeting that's due to happen tonight. Any thoughts?","text":"I think the bear market is coming soon. Afterthe FOMC meeting that's due to happen tonight. Any thoughts?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/163092424","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":538,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":160850686,"gmtCreate":1623782968445,"gmtModify":1631890663433,"author":{"id":"3585096019201823","authorId":"3585096019201823","name":"ppangsy","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/20471738d34ed6efdb59281b8fc3b6c8","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3585096019201823","authorIdStr":"3585096019201823"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Comment on my post pls!","listText":"Comment on my post pls!","text":"Comment on my post pls!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/160850686","repostId":"1191245053","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1191245053","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1623762167,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1191245053?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-15 21:02","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Quad-Witch Quandary: How Will Friday's $2 Trillion Gamma Expiration Impact Markets","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1191245053","media":"zerohedge","summary":"Last week, when discussing thebizarre summer doldrumsin the market which pushed the VIX to the lowest level since the onset of the covid pandemic, we said that this period of abnormal market quiet is likely to last until this Friday' quad-witch, when a massive amount of gamma and delta expire and are de-risked, in the process eliminating one of the natural downside stock buffers .So picking up on the topic of Friday' potentially market-moving opex, Goldman' in-house derivatives expert, Rocky Fis","content":"<p>Last week, when discussing thebizarre summer doldrumsin the market which pushed the VIX to the lowest level since the onset of the covid pandemic, we said that this period of abnormal market quiet is likely to last until this Friday' quad-witch, when a massive amount of gamma and delta expire and are de-risked, in the process eliminating one of the natural downside stock buffers (see \"4 Reasons Why The Market Doldrums End With Next Friday's Op-Ex\").</p>\n<p>So picking up on the topic of Friday' potentially market-moving opex, Goldman' in-house derivatives expert, Rocky Fishman, previews June’s upcoming expiration which he dubs as \"large - comparable to a typical quarterly.\" Specifically,<b>there are $1.8 trillion of SPX options expiring on Friday, in addition to $240 billion of SPY options and $200 billion of options on SPX and SPX E-mini futures.</b></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0d1ece116794c7f6523250fd682450e3\" tg-width=\"959\" tg-height=\"765\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>Yet while these totals are massive,<b>when adjusted for the index’s size the amount of expiring options within 10% of current spot is smaller than just about any quarterly over the past decade.</b></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/534b677774a92a59d4fe08f09359932b\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"298\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>It's worth noting that according to Goldman estimates that combos account<b>for 15-20% of SPX options,</b>so an adjusted open interest total would add up to $1.5tln, still much larger than total expiring single stock open interest ($775bln). Furthermore, with stocks at all time highs, it is to be expected that most of the June open interest is below the current SPX spot price. As shown in the chart below, the dual peaks are at 3,900 and 4,150. This means that after Friday, there may be a certain \"anti\"-gravity around those spots until gamma is refilled.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/adfcada2b0ef3f2ebbd684649a613043\" tg-width=\"936\" tg-height=\"541\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>The Goldman strategist then explains what he believes is below the abnormally low level of realized market vol, noting that - as we discussed last week - it is consistent with long gamma positioning. Consider that SPX<b>realized volatility over the past 13 trading days has been just 5.1% - the lowest 13-day realized vol since 2019.</b></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/afffda1e07736784ad695d95a9936421\" tg-width=\"952\" tg-height=\"558\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>This contrasts with extreme volatility in pockets of the single stock market; AMC, which had the highest contract volume among single stocks last week (but far less notional volume at$7bln/day than AMZN’s leading $120bln/day), has had close to 400% realized vol over the same period.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/df2b7aeaadb37160a7eaf0ac08ba31de\" tg-width=\"1236\" tg-height=\"561\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>Then, as Nomura's Charlie McElligott first noted last week, Goldman's derivatives team agrees that<b>the extremely low SPX realized volatility is consistent with the possibility that 18-Jun has left “the street” long index gamma, in which case Fishman echoeswhat we said last week, namely that \"realized volatility could pick up once positions are cleaner. \"</b>Meanwhile, the rising beta of VIX futures to the SPX indicates that investors expect short gamma dynamics to pick up should markets sell off. Translation:<u><b>the market will become much more volatile in a selloff.</b></u></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/76b01b8a05b70ec4f343626b1fad491b\" tg-width=\"931\" tg-height=\"560\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>Meanwhile, and in keeping with the latest memo stock squeeze, Goldman also notes that while single stock option volumes continue to be high, it is well short of Q1 peaks. The large percentage of all single stock option activity driven by retail, and the predictive value of retail activity, have both heightened the attention on the single stock option market in recent weeks. Recent growth in single stock option activity has been concentrated in low-share-price stocks, leaving a shar prise in contract-volume over the past two weeks that has not been matched by notional volume. When adjusting notional volume for the size of the equity market, Goldman finds that single stock volume has actually been on the low of its 2021 range over the past two weeks which means that the latest ramps had little to no gamma squeeze components to them.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9c6c3df49e3e5d1e4a7a0d9c24696e6a\" tg-width=\"1212\" tg-height=\"608\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>One final point which we discussed recently and which is in keeping with the growing retail participation in trading, is Goldman's observation that the trend toward shorter-dated SPX options (weeklies) and away from quarterlies, continues. That also is one of the reasons why Friday’s SPX expiration is smaller than many recent quarterlies, and why as it as approached expiration, its trading volume has been falling.</p>\n<p>As Goldman explains, investors have been increasingly adopting the full calendar of SPX expirations, including expirations every Monday and Wednesday, as they tailor their views around events. In fact,<b>the percentage of SPX option volume happening in 3rd Friday expirations is at an all-time low,</b>and is now smaller than the percentage happening in Monday and Wednesday expirations. One explanation for heightened ultra-short-dated volumes is the strong single stock volumes: and here an interest suggesting from Goldman - \"to the extent market makers are unable to cover the short single stock gamma generated by retail investors’ call buying, they may be actively trading long positions in strips of ultra-short-dated SPX index options to offset this gamma.\"</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bd0e886a62a61c70b0f299bd6c032a24\" tg-width=\"954\" tg-height=\"1128\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>Why is this important? because if this trend is large enough, it directly contributes to low implied and realized correlation.<b>Ironically, by ramping single name, \"most-shorted names\", retail investors are ushering a period of unorthodox calm across the rest of the market!</b></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Quad-Witch Quandary: How Will Friday's $2 Trillion Gamma Expiration Impact Markets</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nQuad-Witch Quandary: How Will Friday's $2 Trillion Gamma Expiration Impact Markets\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-06-15 21:02 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/quad-witch-quandary-how-will-fridays-2-trillion-gamma-expiration-impact-markets><strong>zerohedge</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Last week, when discussing thebizarre summer doldrumsin the market which pushed the VIX to the lowest level since the onset of the covid pandemic, we said that this period of abnormal market quiet is ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/quad-witch-quandary-how-will-fridays-2-trillion-gamma-expiration-impact-markets\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"SPY":"标普500ETF",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"source_url":"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/quad-witch-quandary-how-will-fridays-2-trillion-gamma-expiration-impact-markets","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1191245053","content_text":"Last week, when discussing thebizarre summer doldrumsin the market which pushed the VIX to the lowest level since the onset of the covid pandemic, we said that this period of abnormal market quiet is likely to last until this Friday' quad-witch, when a massive amount of gamma and delta expire and are de-risked, in the process eliminating one of the natural downside stock buffers (see \"4 Reasons Why The Market Doldrums End With Next Friday's Op-Ex\").\nSo picking up on the topic of Friday' potentially market-moving opex, Goldman' in-house derivatives expert, Rocky Fishman, previews June’s upcoming expiration which he dubs as \"large - comparable to a typical quarterly.\" Specifically,there are $1.8 trillion of SPX options expiring on Friday, in addition to $240 billion of SPY options and $200 billion of options on SPX and SPX E-mini futures.\n\nYet while these totals are massive,when adjusted for the index’s size the amount of expiring options within 10% of current spot is smaller than just about any quarterly over the past decade.\n\nIt's worth noting that according to Goldman estimates that combos accountfor 15-20% of SPX options,so an adjusted open interest total would add up to $1.5tln, still much larger than total expiring single stock open interest ($775bln). Furthermore, with stocks at all time highs, it is to be expected that most of the June open interest is below the current SPX spot price. As shown in the chart below, the dual peaks are at 3,900 and 4,150. This means that after Friday, there may be a certain \"anti\"-gravity around those spots until gamma is refilled.\n\nThe Goldman strategist then explains what he believes is below the abnormally low level of realized market vol, noting that - as we discussed last week - it is consistent with long gamma positioning. Consider that SPXrealized volatility over the past 13 trading days has been just 5.1% - the lowest 13-day realized vol since 2019.\n\nThis contrasts with extreme volatility in pockets of the single stock market; AMC, which had the highest contract volume among single stocks last week (but far less notional volume at$7bln/day than AMZN’s leading $120bln/day), has had close to 400% realized vol over the same period.\n\nThen, as Nomura's Charlie McElligott first noted last week, Goldman's derivatives team agrees thatthe extremely low SPX realized volatility is consistent with the possibility that 18-Jun has left “the street” long index gamma, in which case Fishman echoeswhat we said last week, namely that \"realized volatility could pick up once positions are cleaner. \"Meanwhile, the rising beta of VIX futures to the SPX indicates that investors expect short gamma dynamics to pick up should markets sell off. Translation:the market will become much more volatile in a selloff.\n\nMeanwhile, and in keeping with the latest memo stock squeeze, Goldman also notes that while single stock option volumes continue to be high, it is well short of Q1 peaks. The large percentage of all single stock option activity driven by retail, and the predictive value of retail activity, have both heightened the attention on the single stock option market in recent weeks. Recent growth in single stock option activity has been concentrated in low-share-price stocks, leaving a shar prise in contract-volume over the past two weeks that has not been matched by notional volume. When adjusting notional volume for the size of the equity market, Goldman finds that single stock volume has actually been on the low of its 2021 range over the past two weeks which means that the latest ramps had little to no gamma squeeze components to them.\n\nOne final point which we discussed recently and which is in keeping with the growing retail participation in trading, is Goldman's observation that the trend toward shorter-dated SPX options (weeklies) and away from quarterlies, continues. That also is one of the reasons why Friday’s SPX expiration is smaller than many recent quarterlies, and why as it as approached expiration, its trading volume has been falling.\nAs Goldman explains, investors have been increasingly adopting the full calendar of SPX expirations, including expirations every Monday and Wednesday, as they tailor their views around events. In fact,the percentage of SPX option volume happening in 3rd Friday expirations is at an all-time low,and is now smaller than the percentage happening in Monday and Wednesday expirations. One explanation for heightened ultra-short-dated volumes is the strong single stock volumes: and here an interest suggesting from Goldman - \"to the extent market makers are unable to cover the short single stock gamma generated by retail investors’ call buying, they may be actively trading long positions in strips of ultra-short-dated SPX index options to offset this gamma.\"\n\nWhy is this important? because if this trend is large enough, it directly contributes to low implied and realized correlation.Ironically, by ramping single name, \"most-shorted names\", retail investors are ushering a period of unorthodox calm across the rest of the market!","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":284,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":184750545,"gmtCreate":1623726442087,"gmtModify":1631890663436,"author":{"id":"3585096019201823","authorId":"3585096019201823","name":"ppangsy","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/20471738d34ed6efdb59281b8fc3b6c8","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3585096019201823","authorIdStr":"3585096019201823"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Is this a cue to short bank stocks?","listText":"Is this a cue to short bank stocks?","text":"Is this a cue to short bank stocks?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/184750545","repostId":"1102470114","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1102470114","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1623726018,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1102470114?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-15 11:00","market":"sg","language":"en","title":"Singapore’s Gen-Z Are Borrowing Too Freely, Central Bank Worries","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1102470114","media":"Bloomberg","summary":"Buy Now, Pay Later services gain ground among young consumers\nRegulator’s media blitz warns of risks","content":"<ul>\n <li>Buy Now, Pay Later services gain ground among young consumers</li>\n <li>Regulator’s media blitz warns of risks from easy-credit apps</li>\n</ul>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/905a8770e091a886aa35f2af91621350\" tg-width=\"2000\" tg-height=\"1334\"><span>Outside a shopping mall on Orchard Road in Singapore on June 5. Photographer: Wei Leng Tay/Bloomberg</span></p>\n<p>Would that be by cash, card or a handful of equal payments over a few months?</p>\n<p>Starrie Lee, 23, opted for the latter when she bought a computer monitor online in May. In just a few clicks, the analyst for a technology consultancy split her purchase over three installments using a Singapore-based “Buy Now, Pay Later,” or BNPL, service known as Rely. She is scheduled to pay off her roughly S$500 ($380) bill in July.</p>\n<p>“As someone who does strict budgeting on my monthly expenses, using BNPL gives me more flexibility and reasonableness in managing my cash flow,” Lee said. “It prevents me from overspending.”</p>\n<p>Many officials inSingapore, though, aren’t convinced Gen Z consumers like Lee are spending wisely. The growing popularity of BNPL services among young Singaporeans is unnerving regulators and politicians who fear BNPL apps prey on 20-somethings who may be financially naive.</p>\n<p>“Young adults without sufficient financial awareness can have access to credit lines before they have the necessary earning capacity,” said Cheryl Chan, a Member of Parliament from the ruling People’s Action Party, in an email. “This is an unhealthy trend.”</p>\n<p>Among those sounding the alarm is the Monetary Authority of Singapore, the city-state’s de-facto central bank, which has launched a media campaign warning the payment methods may lead to debt and consumer credit risk.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3d44234f19b4a3c42b50644b32ff29c9\" tg-width=\"2000\" tg-height=\"1334\"><span>The Rely service.Photographer: Wei Leng Tay/Bloomberg</span></p>\n<p>In one&nbsp;article&nbsp;in the Straits Times newspaper, the MAS encouraged people to avoid borrowing for shopping sprees. “You should always spend within your means and not see BNPLschemes as a way to buy items that are more expensive than you can afford,” the report said. “Do not be a hostage to your spending habits.”</p>\n<p>BNPL services, also known as point-of-sale loans, allow buyers to spread out the cost of a purchase over a few months without interest fees, making even big-ticket items seem within reach. Already popular in the West, the services are gaining ground in Singapore and other parts of Southeast Asia.</p>\n<p>Globally, the market for these payment services is expected to grow to about $33.6 billion by 2027 from $7.3 billion in 2019, according to consulting firm Coherent Market Insights.</p>\n<p>Most Singapore users are between 20 and 35, according to local BNPL companies, indicating that younger people are moving away from the traditional mindset against debt that many Southeast Asians hold. Retailers like Sephora and Zara accept the installment payments, with merchants paying BNPL companies a fee for each transaction.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2530c4dd58bb9693a6dc42772dc6ecba\" tg-width=\"2000\" tg-height=\"1334\"><span>A promoter for Atome app outside a Zara store in Singapore.Photographer: Wei Leng Tay/Bloomberg</span></p>\n<p>“People want to have the latest fashion and look like they’re on trend,” Anton Ruddenklau, partner and head of financial services atKPMG LLPin Singapore said. “That is a big driver for people purchasing goods and then deciding to smooth the payments over time.”</p>\n<p>The Covid-19&nbsp;pandemic&nbsp;has accelerated the rise of BNPL services in the city-state by forcing merchants and consumers online, allowing shoppers to search quickly for the best deals and easily opt to use the payment method.</p>\n<p>“A lot of our users are obviously being impacted by the coronavirus – either they were furloughed or it’s just created more uncertainty for someone’s income or budget,” said Ed Chin, founder of local BNPL startup OctiFi. “So a product like ours essentially creates more flexibility for them.”</p>\n<p>Some of Southeast Asia’s technology giants have waded into the business. Ride-hailing firm&nbsp;Grab Holdings Inc.’s PayLater service launched in 2019 and is available in Singapore and other countries in the region.Traveloka Indonesia PT&nbsp;is continuing to expand its BNPL offering, with a focus on Thailand and Vietnam.</p>\n<p>While most BNPL services are typically used for smaller-value purchases, 27% of Singaporeans said they were financially worse off due to a BNPL purchase, according to a 2020 report from financial comparison platform Finder, and 9% said they had paid penalties for missing payments.</p>\n<p>Unlike traditional credit cards which require comprehensive checks and paperwork to verify an individual’s identity and credit worthiness, BNPL services allow users above 18 years old to create an account and begin shopping after entering personal information and linking at least a valid debit card. Late-fee charges typically range from S$5 to S$60.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/76bf09a3c0648b207d2e7e1e71bdcfb9\" tg-width=\"2000\" tg-height=\"1334\"><span>The Atome app.Photographer: Wei Leng Tay/Bloomberg</span></p>\n<p>One startup, Atome, launched in 2019 and works with more than 2,000 retailers across the region. The company’s average transaction sizes in Singapore are typically around S$150, according to Chief Executive David Chen. “A credit card is a product that encourages spending but BNPL is not, as once you are overdue, we freeze the account,” said Chen. The company conducts fraud, credit and risk assessment checks, he added, and observes repayment behavior history and incidence of late or missed payments.</p>\n<p>The services currently fall outside MAS regulations on credit that apply to banks and finance companies, Chairman Tharman Shanmugaratnam wrote in a recent&nbsp;reply&nbsp;to questions posed in parliament. The regulator will consider measures such as verifying BNPL users’ incomes and creating a centralized system to check on advances taken between credit cards and BNPL platforms.</p>\n<p>MAS cannot yet share a timeline for the conclusion of its review, a spokesperson said in an email.</p>\n<p>In the meantime, the central bank is counting on its media blitz to have an impact. The regulator has worked with an online youth magazine to highlight the risks of overspending via BNPL services. “If not careful, one could chalk up debt across multiple installment plans and get into financial distress, especially for someone without a stable income,” MAS warned.</p>\n<p>Still, the services could take off further among Southeast Asia’s growing youth population. The alternative payments method provides greater access to liquidity for the under-banked in emerging markets, according to OctiFi’s Chin. Eager to capture market share, Atome, OctiFi and Rely have plans to expand across the region.</p>\n<p>As they do, they will be targeting consumers like Chang Wei Yue, a 26-year-old public relations executive who recently finished paying off a S$2,000 purchase of invisible braces. “It was super hassle-free and it put me at ease knowing I didn’t have to pay the full sum right up front,” she said.</p>","source":"lsy1584095487587","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Singapore’s Gen-Z Are Borrowing Too Freely, Central Bank Worries</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nSingapore’s Gen-Z Are Borrowing Too Freely, Central Bank Worries\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-06-15 11:00 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-06-14/singapore-s-gen-z-are-borrowing-too-freely-central-bank-worries><strong>Bloomberg</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Buy Now, Pay Later services gain ground among young consumers\nRegulator’s media blitz warns of risks from easy-credit apps\n\nOutside a shopping mall on Orchard Road in Singapore on June 5. Photographer...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-06-14/singapore-s-gen-z-are-borrowing-too-freely-central-bank-worries\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"STI.SI":"富时新加坡海峡指数"},"source_url":"https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-06-14/singapore-s-gen-z-are-borrowing-too-freely-central-bank-worries","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1102470114","content_text":"Buy Now, Pay Later services gain ground among young consumers\nRegulator’s media blitz warns of risks from easy-credit apps\n\nOutside a shopping mall on Orchard Road in Singapore on June 5. Photographer: Wei Leng Tay/Bloomberg\nWould that be by cash, card or a handful of equal payments over a few months?\nStarrie Lee, 23, opted for the latter when she bought a computer monitor online in May. In just a few clicks, the analyst for a technology consultancy split her purchase over three installments using a Singapore-based “Buy Now, Pay Later,” or BNPL, service known as Rely. She is scheduled to pay off her roughly S$500 ($380) bill in July.\n“As someone who does strict budgeting on my monthly expenses, using BNPL gives me more flexibility and reasonableness in managing my cash flow,” Lee said. “It prevents me from overspending.”\nMany officials inSingapore, though, aren’t convinced Gen Z consumers like Lee are spending wisely. The growing popularity of BNPL services among young Singaporeans is unnerving regulators and politicians who fear BNPL apps prey on 20-somethings who may be financially naive.\n“Young adults without sufficient financial awareness can have access to credit lines before they have the necessary earning capacity,” said Cheryl Chan, a Member of Parliament from the ruling People’s Action Party, in an email. “This is an unhealthy trend.”\nAmong those sounding the alarm is the Monetary Authority of Singapore, the city-state’s de-facto central bank, which has launched a media campaign warning the payment methods may lead to debt and consumer credit risk.\nThe Rely service.Photographer: Wei Leng Tay/Bloomberg\nIn one article in the Straits Times newspaper, the MAS encouraged people to avoid borrowing for shopping sprees. “You should always spend within your means and not see BNPLschemes as a way to buy items that are more expensive than you can afford,” the report said. “Do not be a hostage to your spending habits.”\nBNPL services, also known as point-of-sale loans, allow buyers to spread out the cost of a purchase over a few months without interest fees, making even big-ticket items seem within reach. Already popular in the West, the services are gaining ground in Singapore and other parts of Southeast Asia.\nGlobally, the market for these payment services is expected to grow to about $33.6 billion by 2027 from $7.3 billion in 2019, according to consulting firm Coherent Market Insights.\nMost Singapore users are between 20 and 35, according to local BNPL companies, indicating that younger people are moving away from the traditional mindset against debt that many Southeast Asians hold. Retailers like Sephora and Zara accept the installment payments, with merchants paying BNPL companies a fee for each transaction.\nA promoter for Atome app outside a Zara store in Singapore.Photographer: Wei Leng Tay/Bloomberg\n“People want to have the latest fashion and look like they’re on trend,” Anton Ruddenklau, partner and head of financial services atKPMG LLPin Singapore said. “That is a big driver for people purchasing goods and then deciding to smooth the payments over time.”\nThe Covid-19 pandemic has accelerated the rise of BNPL services in the city-state by forcing merchants and consumers online, allowing shoppers to search quickly for the best deals and easily opt to use the payment method.\n“A lot of our users are obviously being impacted by the coronavirus – either they were furloughed or it’s just created more uncertainty for someone’s income or budget,” said Ed Chin, founder of local BNPL startup OctiFi. “So a product like ours essentially creates more flexibility for them.”\nSome of Southeast Asia’s technology giants have waded into the business. Ride-hailing firm Grab Holdings Inc.’s PayLater service launched in 2019 and is available in Singapore and other countries in the region.Traveloka Indonesia PT is continuing to expand its BNPL offering, with a focus on Thailand and Vietnam.\nWhile most BNPL services are typically used for smaller-value purchases, 27% of Singaporeans said they were financially worse off due to a BNPL purchase, according to a 2020 report from financial comparison platform Finder, and 9% said they had paid penalties for missing payments.\nUnlike traditional credit cards which require comprehensive checks and paperwork to verify an individual’s identity and credit worthiness, BNPL services allow users above 18 years old to create an account and begin shopping after entering personal information and linking at least a valid debit card. Late-fee charges typically range from S$5 to S$60.\nThe Atome app.Photographer: Wei Leng Tay/Bloomberg\nOne startup, Atome, launched in 2019 and works with more than 2,000 retailers across the region. The company’s average transaction sizes in Singapore are typically around S$150, according to Chief Executive David Chen. “A credit card is a product that encourages spending but BNPL is not, as once you are overdue, we freeze the account,” said Chen. The company conducts fraud, credit and risk assessment checks, he added, and observes repayment behavior history and incidence of late or missed payments.\nThe services currently fall outside MAS regulations on credit that apply to banks and finance companies, Chairman Tharman Shanmugaratnam wrote in a recent reply to questions posed in parliament. The regulator will consider measures such as verifying BNPL users’ incomes and creating a centralized system to check on advances taken between credit cards and BNPL platforms.\nMAS cannot yet share a timeline for the conclusion of its review, a spokesperson said in an email.\nIn the meantime, the central bank is counting on its media blitz to have an impact. The regulator has worked with an online youth magazine to highlight the risks of overspending via BNPL services. “If not careful, one could chalk up debt across multiple installment plans and get into financial distress, especially for someone without a stable income,” MAS warned.\nStill, the services could take off further among Southeast Asia’s growing youth population. The alternative payments method provides greater access to liquidity for the under-banked in emerging markets, according to OctiFi’s Chin. Eager to capture market share, Atome, OctiFi and Rely have plans to expand across the region.\nAs they do, they will be targeting consumers like Chang Wei Yue, a 26-year-old public relations executive who recently finished paying off a S$2,000 purchase of invisible braces. “It was super hassle-free and it put me at ease knowing I didn’t have to pay the full sum right up front,” she said.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":298,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":185227389,"gmtCreate":1623655542941,"gmtModify":1634030582208,"author":{"id":"3585096019201823","authorId":"3585096019201823","name":"ppangsy","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/20471738d34ed6efdb59281b8fc3b6c8","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3585096019201823","authorIdStr":"3585096019201823"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"It would be a great time to jump in and be vested!","listText":"It would be a great time to jump in and be vested!","text":"It would be a great time to jump in and be vested!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/185227389","repostId":"1101734335","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1101734335","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1623654726,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1101734335?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-14 15:12","market":"us","language":"en","title":"These stocks could be big winners if interest rates continue to fall","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1101734335","media":"CNBC","summary":"Interest rates are unexpectedly retreating, spurring investors to rethink which stocks to bet on as ","content":"<div>\n<p>Interest rates are unexpectedly retreating, spurring investors to rethink which stocks to bet on as 2021 continues. Certain stocks that have performed well when rates fell in the past might just be ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.cnbc.com/2021/06/11/these-stocks-could-be-big-winners-if-interest-rates-continue-to-fall.html\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n","source":"cnbc_highlight","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>These stocks could be big winners if interest rates continue to fall</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nThese stocks could be big winners if interest rates continue to fall\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-06-14 15:12 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.cnbc.com/2021/06/11/these-stocks-could-be-big-winners-if-interest-rates-continue-to-fall.html><strong>CNBC</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Interest rates are unexpectedly retreating, spurring investors to rethink which stocks to bet on as 2021 continues. Certain stocks that have performed well when rates fell in the past might just be ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.cnbc.com/2021/06/11/these-stocks-could-be-big-winners-if-interest-rates-continue-to-fall.html\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"ARE":"亚历山大房地产","GOOGL":"谷歌A","SBAC":"SBA通信","MSFT":"微软","ADBE":"Adobe","TFX":"泰利福","NI":"印北瓦电","PLD":"安博","LRCX":"拉姆研究","NVDA":"英伟达","TMO":"赛默飞世尔","AMZN":"亚马逊","GNRC":"Generac控股","CZR":"凯撒娱乐","V":"Visa","ATVI":"动视暴雪","FMC":"FMC Corp.","INTU":"财捷","AMAT":"应用材料","EQIX":"易昆尼克斯"},"source_url":"https://www.cnbc.com/2021/06/11/these-stocks-could-be-big-winners-if-interest-rates-continue-to-fall.html","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/72bb72e1b84c09fca865c6dcb1bbcd16","article_id":"1101734335","content_text":"Interest rates are unexpectedly retreating, spurring investors to rethink which stocks to bet on as 2021 continues. Certain stocks that have performed well when rates fell in the past might just be big winners again.\nInvestors anticipated higher interest rates this year as the economy reopens, triggering big growth and inflation. Yet despite some high inflation readings, rates have started reversing lower.\nThe May consumer price index came in hotter-than-expected on Thursday, jumping 5% from a year earlier — the fastest pace since 2008. Even so, the 10-year Treasury yield fell as low as 1.43% this week, down from its high for the year of 1.77% and the lowest level in three months.\nCNBC PRO identified eight periods of significant drops in the 10-year Treasury yield over the past decade. We then calculated the median return for S&P 500 stocks during those periods. The stocks below had the best returns during periods when the 10-year yield was falling.\nWhat’s more, we filtered out stocks that are currently not loved by analysts. These stocks have a buy rating from at least 70% of analysts.\nSTOCKS WITH BIG RETURNS DURING FALLING RATE PERIODS\n\n\n\nSYMBOL\nCOMPANY\nSECTOR\n(%) MEDIAN GAIN DURING FALLING RATE PERIODS\n(%) BUY RATING\n\n\n\n\nEQIX\nEquinix, Inc.\nFinance\n27.1\n83.9\n\n\nNVDA\nNVIDIA Corporation\nTechnology\n23.7\n73.8\n\n\nSBAC\nSBA Communications Corp. Class A\nFinance\n20.9\n85.0\n\n\nPLD\nPrologis, Inc.\nFinance\n19.3\n80.0\n\n\nLRCX\nLam Research Corporation\nTechnology\n17.1\n73.9\n\n\nAMZN\nAmazon.com, Inc.\nConsumer Non-Cyclicals\n15.3\n85.7\n\n\nNI\nNiSource Inc\nUtilities\n15.1\n71.4\n\n\nMSFT\nMicrosoft Corporation\nTechnology\n13.7\n83.3\n\n\nV\nVisa Inc. Class A\nFinance\n13.4\n72.5\n\n\nATVI\nActivision Blizzard, Inc.\nTechnology\n12.3\n73.5\n\n\nARE\nAlexandria Real Estate Equities, Inc.\nFinance\n11.8\n90.9\n\n\nTFX\nTeleflex Incorporated\nHealthcare\n11.7\n90.9\n\n\nTMO\nThermo Fisher Scientific Inc.\nHealthcare\n11.0\n73.9\n\n\nCZR\nCaesars Entertainment Inc\nConsumer Services\n10.9\n73.3\n\n\nINTU\nIntuit Inc.\nTechnology\n10.8\n72.0\n\n\nADBE\nAdobe Inc.\nTechnology\n10.8\n74.1\n\n\nFMC\nFMC Corporation\nNon-Energy Materials\n10.3\n84.2\n\n\nAMAT\nApplied Materials, Inc.\nTechnology\n10.2\n75.0\n\n\nGOOGL\nAlphabet Inc. Class A\nTechnology\n9.9\n86.7\n\n\nGNRC\nGenerac Holdings Inc.\nIndustrials\n9.5\n81.3\n\n\n\n(Source: FactSet)\nIf rates continue to retreat, it eases concerns about growth and technology shares and their high valuations. And history fits that theory, with many tech names making the list of top low-rate performers.\nBig tech names like Amazon,Microsoft and Google-parent Alphabet made CNBC PRO’s screen — and it looks those stocks are already seeing some interest from investors. Amazon, Microsoft and Alphabet are on track to gain a few percentage points this week.\nHigh-growth stock Nvidia is also on the list. Shares of the chip maker are up more than 30% in 2021 and have more than doubled in the past 12 months.\nReal estate investment trusts like Equinix,SBA Communications and Prologis also make CNBC PRO’s list. REITs typically perform well amid lower rates because they pay out a large portion of their revenue to investors in the form of dividends. Lower rates make those steady payouts look more attractive by comparison.\nLam Research,Visa and Caesars Entertainment are other names that have performed well in previous periods of low interest rates.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":470,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":186519238,"gmtCreate":1623509679324,"gmtModify":1634032250924,"author":{"id":"3585096019201823","authorId":"3585096019201823","name":"ppangsy","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/20471738d34ed6efdb59281b8fc3b6c8","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3585096019201823","authorIdStr":"3585096019201823"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"I want to buy in some!","listText":"I want to buy in some!","text":"I want to buy in some!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/186519238","repostId":"2142206100","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2142206100","kind":"highlight","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Dow Jones publishes the world’s most trusted business news and financial information in a variety of media.","home_visible":0,"media_name":"Dow Jones","id":"106","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/150f88aa4d182df19190059f4a365e99"},"pubTimestamp":1623470400,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2142206100?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-12 12:00","market":"hk","language":"en","title":"15 momentum stocks expected to show the best sales growth over the next two years, including Carvana, Tesla and Palantir","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2142206100","media":"Dow Jones","summary":"Several companies on a stock screen have estimated two-year revenue growth of over 100%.\nThere are m","content":"<p>Several companies on a stock screen have estimated two-year revenue growth of over 100%.</p>\n<p>There are many broad approaches to the stock market for selecting individual companies or groups for investments. Momentum investing -- trying to ride the wave of other investors' sentiment -- is popular for day-traders, especially during the current meme-stock craze. But it can also work over the long term.</p>\n<p>Below is a list of momentum stocks of companies expected to show the strongest sales growth over the next two years.</p>\n<p>Momentum ETF</p>\n<p>To begin with a large group of momentum stocks, we can look at the <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MTUM\">iShares MSCI USA Momentum Factor</a> ETF (MTUM). This is the largest U.S. ETF that follows a momentum strategy, according to Mark Hulbert performance relative to its benchmark, the S&amp;P 500 Growth Index.</p>\n<p>For example, the largest holding of the ETF is Tesla Inc. <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">$(TSLA)$</a>, which \"has experienced strong risk-adjusted performance related to the market over the past 12 months,\" according to <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/EEME\">iShares</a> (a subsidiary of BlackRock Inc. <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BLK\">$(BLK)$</a>). But shares of Merck &amp; Co. Inc. <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MRK\">$(MRK)$</a> are excluded from MTUM because even though <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/EGRW\">iShares</a> considered its 12-month return \"attractive,\" the stock's six-month risk-adjusted return underperformed the benchmark.</p>\n<p>So keeping in mind the weighting by price performance relative to the index, tempered by volatility (going back as much as three years), here are the top 10 holdings of the <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/IHPXF\">iShares MSCI</a> USA Momentum Factor ETF:</p>\n<table>\n <tbody>\n  <tr>\n   <td>Company</td>\n   <td>Ticker</td>\n   <td>Share of MTUM</td>\n  </tr>\n  <tr>\n   <td>Tesla Inc.</td>\n   <td>TSLA</td>\n   <td>5.00%</td>\n  </tr>\n  <tr>\n   <td>JPMorgan Chase &amp; Co.</td>\n   <td>JPM</td>\n   <td>4.76%</td>\n  </tr>\n  <tr>\n   <td>Berkshire Hathaway Inc. Class B</td>\n   <td>BRK.B</td>\n   <td>4.58%</td>\n  </tr>\n  <tr>\n   <td>Walt Disney Co.</td>\n   <td>DIS</td>\n   <td>4.48%</td>\n  </tr>\n  <tr>\n   <td>$Bank of America Corp(BAC-N)$.</td>\n   <td>BAC</td>\n   <td>4.29%</td>\n  </tr>\n  <tr>\n   <td><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PYPL\">PayPal</a> Holdings Inc.</td>\n   <td>PYPL</td>\n   <td>3.66%</td>\n  </tr>\n  <tr>\n   <td>Wells Fargo &amp; Co.</td>\n   <td>WFC</td>\n   <td>3.11%</td>\n  </tr>\n  <tr>\n   <td>Applied Materials Inc.</td>\n   <td>AMAT</td>\n   <td>3.00%</td>\n  </tr>\n  <tr>\n   <td>Alphabet Inc. Class C</td>\n   <td>GOOG</td>\n   <td>2.67%</td>\n  </tr>\n  <tr>\n   <td>Alphabet Inc. Class A</td>\n   <td>GOOGL</td>\n   <td>2.45%</td>\n  </tr>\n  <tr>\n   <td>Goldman Sachs Group Inc.</td>\n   <td>GS</td>\n   <td>2.30%</td>\n  </tr>\n  <tr>\n   <td>(FactSet)</td>\n   <td></td>\n   <td></td>\n  </tr>\n </tbody>\n</table>\n<p>Actually, there are 11 stocks listed, as MTUM holds both share classes of Alphabet Inc. Banks and insurers make up half the list, which makes sense because financials have been the second-best performing sector in the S&amp;P 500 , after the materials sector.</p>\n<p>Momentum stock screen -- expected sales growth</p>\n<p>Thinking again about financials, they have had plenty of momentum as investors have gained confidence the U.S. economy will continue roaring back from the damage caused by the coronavirus pandemic.</p>\n<p>But revenue growth can be an important driver, especially for individual stock prices over the long term. From here, the financials might not be the best place to look for rapidly rising revenue over the next two years.</p>\n<p>Starting with the 125 momentum stocks held by MTUM, here are the 15 companies expected by analysts polled by FactSet to increase revenue the most over the next two calendar years, with 2021 as the baseline. The figures are in millions of dollars:</p>\n<p>Those are stellar sales-growth numbers -- if the analysts are close to being correct. Many of the stocks are also expensive relative to the expected 2023 sales numbers. In comparison, the <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/EMDI\">iShares</a> S&amp;P 500 Growth ETF <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/IVW\">$(IVW)$</a> (which tracks the entire S&amp;P 500 Growth Index) trades for 4.2 times estimated 2023 sales.</p>\n<p>Plug Power Inc. <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PLUG\">$(PLUG)$</a> tops the list, with analysts expecting sales to increase to $1.1 billion in 2023. The company said on June 10 it would build a hydrogen-production plant in Camden County, Ga.</p>\n<p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SNAP\">Snap Inc</a>. (SNAP) CEO Evan Spiegal said recently the company had grown to 500 million active daily users and that almost half of U.S. smartphone users were using Snapchat.</p>\n<p>Novavax Inc. <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVAX\">$(NVAX)$</a> expects to apply for FDA approval of its coronavirus vaccine during the third quarter.</p>\n<p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CVNA\">Carvana Co.</a> (CVNA) has been on a tear, with used-car demand spiking in the wake of component shortages for automobile production. The company's sales by units increased 76% in the first quarter from a year earlier.</p>\n<p>Uber Technologies Inc. <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/UBER\">$(UBER)$</a> and Lyft Inc <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LYFT\">$(LYFT)$</a> are also expected to ride the economic recovery wave, although analysts expect Lyft to take longer to exceed its pre-pandemic revenue level .</p>\n<p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PLTR\">Palantir Technologies Inc.</a> (PLTR) rounds out the list. The developer of software used by government defense and intelligence agencies was included in this analysis of meme stocks .</p>\n<p>Earnings</p>\n<p>Some of these companies are still in relatively early growth stages, and aren't expected to achieve full-year profitability until 2023. Here are consensus earnings-per-share estimates for three years:</p>\n<p>Those are very high price-to-earnings ratios based on current stock prices and consensus estimates for 2023. But for rapidly growing companies, earnings typically aren't a priority, which explains why Amazon.com Inc. <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMZN\">$(AMZN)$</a> always trades at a high P/E. In comparison, the the <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/EMEY\">iShares</a> S&amp;P 500 Growth ETF trades for 23.3 times its weighted aggregate consensus earnings estimate for 2023.</p>\n<p>Wall Street's opinion</p>\n<p>Here's a summary of opinion about the 15 companies held by MTUM that analysts expect to grow their revenue the most over the next two years:</p>\n<p>The 12-month price targets may not be useful -- for traders, this is an eternity; it may be a short period for long-term investors looking to profit for years as sales (and hopefully earnings, eventually) compound. It is important to do your own research and form your own opinion about a company's financial health and its ability to remain competitive.</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>15 momentum stocks expected to show the best sales growth over the next two years, including Carvana, Tesla and Palantir</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n15 momentum stocks expected to show the best sales growth over the next two years, including Carvana, Tesla and Palantir\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<div class=\"head\" \">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/150f88aa4d182df19190059f4a365e99);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Dow Jones </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2021-06-12 12:00</p>\n</div>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Several companies on a stock screen have estimated two-year revenue growth of over 100%.</p>\n<p>There are many broad approaches to the stock market for selecting individual companies or groups for investments. Momentum investing -- trying to ride the wave of other investors' sentiment -- is popular for day-traders, especially during the current meme-stock craze. But it can also work over the long term.</p>\n<p>Below is a list of momentum stocks of companies expected to show the strongest sales growth over the next two years.</p>\n<p>Momentum ETF</p>\n<p>To begin with a large group of momentum stocks, we can look at the <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MTUM\">iShares MSCI USA Momentum Factor</a> ETF (MTUM). This is the largest U.S. ETF that follows a momentum strategy, according to Mark Hulbert performance relative to its benchmark, the S&amp;P 500 Growth Index.</p>\n<p>For example, the largest holding of the ETF is Tesla Inc. <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">$(TSLA)$</a>, which \"has experienced strong risk-adjusted performance related to the market over the past 12 months,\" according to <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/EEME\">iShares</a> (a subsidiary of BlackRock Inc. <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BLK\">$(BLK)$</a>). But shares of Merck &amp; Co. Inc. <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MRK\">$(MRK)$</a> are excluded from MTUM because even though <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/EGRW\">iShares</a> considered its 12-month return \"attractive,\" the stock's six-month risk-adjusted return underperformed the benchmark.</p>\n<p>So keeping in mind the weighting by price performance relative to the index, tempered by volatility (going back as much as three years), here are the top 10 holdings of the <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/IHPXF\">iShares MSCI</a> USA Momentum Factor ETF:</p>\n<table>\n <tbody>\n  <tr>\n   <td>Company</td>\n   <td>Ticker</td>\n   <td>Share of MTUM</td>\n  </tr>\n  <tr>\n   <td>Tesla Inc.</td>\n   <td>TSLA</td>\n   <td>5.00%</td>\n  </tr>\n  <tr>\n   <td>JPMorgan Chase &amp; Co.</td>\n   <td>JPM</td>\n   <td>4.76%</td>\n  </tr>\n  <tr>\n   <td>Berkshire Hathaway Inc. Class B</td>\n   <td>BRK.B</td>\n   <td>4.58%</td>\n  </tr>\n  <tr>\n   <td>Walt Disney Co.</td>\n   <td>DIS</td>\n   <td>4.48%</td>\n  </tr>\n  <tr>\n   <td>$Bank of America Corp(BAC-N)$.</td>\n   <td>BAC</td>\n   <td>4.29%</td>\n  </tr>\n  <tr>\n   <td><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PYPL\">PayPal</a> Holdings Inc.</td>\n   <td>PYPL</td>\n   <td>3.66%</td>\n  </tr>\n  <tr>\n   <td>Wells Fargo &amp; Co.</td>\n   <td>WFC</td>\n   <td>3.11%</td>\n  </tr>\n  <tr>\n   <td>Applied Materials Inc.</td>\n   <td>AMAT</td>\n   <td>3.00%</td>\n  </tr>\n  <tr>\n   <td>Alphabet Inc. Class C</td>\n   <td>GOOG</td>\n   <td>2.67%</td>\n  </tr>\n  <tr>\n   <td>Alphabet Inc. Class A</td>\n   <td>GOOGL</td>\n   <td>2.45%</td>\n  </tr>\n  <tr>\n   <td>Goldman Sachs Group Inc.</td>\n   <td>GS</td>\n   <td>2.30%</td>\n  </tr>\n  <tr>\n   <td>(FactSet)</td>\n   <td></td>\n   <td></td>\n  </tr>\n </tbody>\n</table>\n<p>Actually, there are 11 stocks listed, as MTUM holds both share classes of Alphabet Inc. Banks and insurers make up half the list, which makes sense because financials have been the second-best performing sector in the S&amp;P 500 , after the materials sector.</p>\n<p>Momentum stock screen -- expected sales growth</p>\n<p>Thinking again about financials, they have had plenty of momentum as investors have gained confidence the U.S. economy will continue roaring back from the damage caused by the coronavirus pandemic.</p>\n<p>But revenue growth can be an important driver, especially for individual stock prices over the long term. From here, the financials might not be the best place to look for rapidly rising revenue over the next two years.</p>\n<p>Starting with the 125 momentum stocks held by MTUM, here are the 15 companies expected by analysts polled by FactSet to increase revenue the most over the next two calendar years, with 2021 as the baseline. The figures are in millions of dollars:</p>\n<p>Those are stellar sales-growth numbers -- if the analysts are close to being correct. Many of the stocks are also expensive relative to the expected 2023 sales numbers. In comparison, the <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/EMDI\">iShares</a> S&amp;P 500 Growth ETF <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/IVW\">$(IVW)$</a> (which tracks the entire S&amp;P 500 Growth Index) trades for 4.2 times estimated 2023 sales.</p>\n<p>Plug Power Inc. <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PLUG\">$(PLUG)$</a> tops the list, with analysts expecting sales to increase to $1.1 billion in 2023. The company said on June 10 it would build a hydrogen-production plant in Camden County, Ga.</p>\n<p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SNAP\">Snap Inc</a>. (SNAP) CEO Evan Spiegal said recently the company had grown to 500 million active daily users and that almost half of U.S. smartphone users were using Snapchat.</p>\n<p>Novavax Inc. <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVAX\">$(NVAX)$</a> expects to apply for FDA approval of its coronavirus vaccine during the third quarter.</p>\n<p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CVNA\">Carvana Co.</a> (CVNA) has been on a tear, with used-car demand spiking in the wake of component shortages for automobile production. The company's sales by units increased 76% in the first quarter from a year earlier.</p>\n<p>Uber Technologies Inc. <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/UBER\">$(UBER)$</a> and Lyft Inc <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LYFT\">$(LYFT)$</a> are also expected to ride the economic recovery wave, although analysts expect Lyft to take longer to exceed its pre-pandemic revenue level .</p>\n<p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PLTR\">Palantir Technologies Inc.</a> (PLTR) rounds out the list. The developer of software used by government defense and intelligence agencies was included in this analysis of meme stocks .</p>\n<p>Earnings</p>\n<p>Some of these companies are still in relatively early growth stages, and aren't expected to achieve full-year profitability until 2023. Here are consensus earnings-per-share estimates for three years:</p>\n<p>Those are very high price-to-earnings ratios based on current stock prices and consensus estimates for 2023. But for rapidly growing companies, earnings typically aren't a priority, which explains why Amazon.com Inc. <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMZN\">$(AMZN)$</a> always trades at a high P/E. In comparison, the the <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/EMEY\">iShares</a> S&amp;P 500 Growth ETF trades for 23.3 times its weighted aggregate consensus earnings estimate for 2023.</p>\n<p>Wall Street's opinion</p>\n<p>Here's a summary of opinion about the 15 companies held by MTUM that analysts expect to grow their revenue the most over the next two years:</p>\n<p>The 12-month price targets may not be useful -- for traders, this is an eternity; it may be a short period for long-term investors looking to profit for years as sales (and hopefully earnings, eventually) compound. It is important to do your own research and form your own opinion about a company's financial health and its ability to remain competitive.</p>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"PLTR":"Palantir Technologies Inc.","SNAP":"Snap Inc","CVNA":"Carvana Co.","PLUG":"普拉格能源","TSLA":"特斯拉"},"is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2142206100","content_text":"Several companies on a stock screen have estimated two-year revenue growth of over 100%.\nThere are many broad approaches to the stock market for selecting individual companies or groups for investments. Momentum investing -- trying to ride the wave of other investors' sentiment -- is popular for day-traders, especially during the current meme-stock craze. But it can also work over the long term.\nBelow is a list of momentum stocks of companies expected to show the strongest sales growth over the next two years.\nMomentum ETF\nTo begin with a large group of momentum stocks, we can look at the iShares MSCI USA Momentum Factor ETF (MTUM). This is the largest U.S. ETF that follows a momentum strategy, according to Mark Hulbert performance relative to its benchmark, the S&P 500 Growth Index.\nFor example, the largest holding of the ETF is Tesla Inc. $(TSLA)$, which \"has experienced strong risk-adjusted performance related to the market over the past 12 months,\" according to iShares (a subsidiary of BlackRock Inc. $(BLK)$). But shares of Merck & Co. Inc. $(MRK)$ are excluded from MTUM because even though iShares considered its 12-month return \"attractive,\" the stock's six-month risk-adjusted return underperformed the benchmark.\nSo keeping in mind the weighting by price performance relative to the index, tempered by volatility (going back as much as three years), here are the top 10 holdings of the iShares MSCI USA Momentum Factor ETF:\n\n\n\nCompany\nTicker\nShare of MTUM\n\n\nTesla Inc.\nTSLA\n5.00%\n\n\nJPMorgan Chase & Co.\nJPM\n4.76%\n\n\nBerkshire Hathaway Inc. Class B\nBRK.B\n4.58%\n\n\nWalt Disney Co.\nDIS\n4.48%\n\n\n$Bank of America Corp(BAC-N)$.\nBAC\n4.29%\n\n\nPayPal Holdings Inc.\nPYPL\n3.66%\n\n\nWells Fargo & Co.\nWFC\n3.11%\n\n\nApplied Materials Inc.\nAMAT\n3.00%\n\n\nAlphabet Inc. Class C\nGOOG\n2.67%\n\n\nAlphabet Inc. Class A\nGOOGL\n2.45%\n\n\nGoldman Sachs Group Inc.\nGS\n2.30%\n\n\n(FactSet)\n\n\n\n\n\nActually, there are 11 stocks listed, as MTUM holds both share classes of Alphabet Inc. Banks and insurers make up half the list, which makes sense because financials have been the second-best performing sector in the S&P 500 , after the materials sector.\nMomentum stock screen -- expected sales growth\nThinking again about financials, they have had plenty of momentum as investors have gained confidence the U.S. economy will continue roaring back from the damage caused by the coronavirus pandemic.\nBut revenue growth can be an important driver, especially for individual stock prices over the long term. From here, the financials might not be the best place to look for rapidly rising revenue over the next two years.\nStarting with the 125 momentum stocks held by MTUM, here are the 15 companies expected by analysts polled by FactSet to increase revenue the most over the next two calendar years, with 2021 as the baseline. The figures are in millions of dollars:\nThose are stellar sales-growth numbers -- if the analysts are close to being correct. Many of the stocks are also expensive relative to the expected 2023 sales numbers. In comparison, the iShares S&P 500 Growth ETF $(IVW)$ (which tracks the entire S&P 500 Growth Index) trades for 4.2 times estimated 2023 sales.\nPlug Power Inc. $(PLUG)$ tops the list, with analysts expecting sales to increase to $1.1 billion in 2023. The company said on June 10 it would build a hydrogen-production plant in Camden County, Ga.\nSnap Inc. (SNAP) CEO Evan Spiegal said recently the company had grown to 500 million active daily users and that almost half of U.S. smartphone users were using Snapchat.\nNovavax Inc. $(NVAX)$ expects to apply for FDA approval of its coronavirus vaccine during the third quarter.\nCarvana Co. (CVNA) has been on a tear, with used-car demand spiking in the wake of component shortages for automobile production. The company's sales by units increased 76% in the first quarter from a year earlier.\nUber Technologies Inc. $(UBER)$ and Lyft Inc $(LYFT)$ are also expected to ride the economic recovery wave, although analysts expect Lyft to take longer to exceed its pre-pandemic revenue level .\nPalantir Technologies Inc. (PLTR) rounds out the list. The developer of software used by government defense and intelligence agencies was included in this analysis of meme stocks .\nEarnings\nSome of these companies are still in relatively early growth stages, and aren't expected to achieve full-year profitability until 2023. Here are consensus earnings-per-share estimates for three years:\nThose are very high price-to-earnings ratios based on current stock prices and consensus estimates for 2023. But for rapidly growing companies, earnings typically aren't a priority, which explains why Amazon.com Inc. $(AMZN)$ always trades at a high P/E. In comparison, the the iShares S&P 500 Growth ETF trades for 23.3 times its weighted aggregate consensus earnings estimate for 2023.\nWall Street's opinion\nHere's a summary of opinion about the 15 companies held by MTUM that analysts expect to grow their revenue the most over the next two years:\nThe 12-month price targets may not be useful -- for traders, this is an eternity; it may be a short period for long-term investors looking to profit for years as sales (and hopefully earnings, eventually) compound. It is important to do your own research and form your own opinion about a company's financial health and its ability to remain competitive.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":318,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":183684252,"gmtCreate":1623328745176,"gmtModify":1634034545385,"author":{"id":"3585096019201823","authorId":"3585096019201823","name":"ppangsy","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/20471738d34ed6efdb59281b8fc3b6c8","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3585096019201823","authorIdStr":"3585096019201823"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Wont overheat? Theyre just kidding themselves","listText":"Wont overheat? Theyre just kidding themselves","text":"Wont overheat? Theyre just kidding themselves","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/183684252","repostId":"1127298356","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1127298356","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1623310533,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1127298356?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-10 15:35","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Goldman Explains Why The Economy Won't Overheat, No Matter What Today's CPI Shows","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1127298356","media":"zerohedge","summary":"Yields on 10-year Treasuries dipped below 1.50% today for the first time since early March amid a fu","content":"<p>Yields on 10-year Treasuries dipped below 1.50% today for the first time since early March amid a furious shortsqueeze discussed earlier...</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e87da5d75100fe75f0be86933791246f\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"422\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">... and as post-pandemic inflation concerns appear to be waning as quickly as they flared up.</p>\n<p>This is a point we first brought up last month when observing the collapse in China's credit impulse, arguably the most important variable for the entire global reflationary narrative (see \"China's Credit Impulse Just Turned Negative, Unleashing Global Deflationary Shockwave\")...</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cfc3b4fc471bcf50ee51b9be637a3ed4\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"294\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">... and it's a point that Goldman's chief economist Jan Hatzius reiterated in a note published on Tuesday titled simply \"Why the Economy Won’t Overheat,” in which he argues - the same as the Fed - that the inflation we are seeing so far is likely to be temporary and prices will normalize again as we leg further away from unprecedented pandemic activity curtailments.</p>\n<p>While we disagree - and so does Deutsche Bank,which sees nothing short of Weimar hyperinflationbeing unleashed by the Fed soon, something we first predicted in March 2009 as the ultimate endgame -&nbsp; it is interesting that today, at least, markets appear to be adopting this view judging by the collapse in 10Y nominal rates and the recent breach of the upward trendline in breakevens...</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ef6de63c2434121178b1a7b351df6ee9\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"308\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">... this even as China's PPI printed at a Lehman Sept 2008 high of 9.0% overnight.</p>\n<p>So what, according to Goldman is the reason for receding inflation fears? As Hatzius and strategist Chris Hussey explain, the past 2 payrolls reports have been underwhelming as the rush back to work \"is being slowed by generous stimulus as well as an inability — perhaps — to simply process so many new workers. On the one hand, fewer available workers should push up wages as companies compete to attract new workers. But a more orderly stream of employment in the post-pandemic recovery may also allow for a more extended reopening period and perhaps a bit less top-line pressure on prices.\"</p>\n<p>Another reason for receding inflation fears may also simply be time. According to Goldman, as Americans become more accustomed to getting back to their daily routines, the strangeness of such activity recedes. And it is perhaps easier for investors to envision what‘normal’ will look like.&nbsp; And perhaps that vision is collectively coalescing around a‘new normal’ that looks surprisingly similiar to the pre-pandemic ‘old normal’.</p>\n<p>Hatzius then elaborates why the recent inflation pickup will remain transitory: \"On the wage side,<b>labor supply should increase dramatically over the next 3-6 months as fear of the virus diminishes further and the $300/week benefit top-up expires—over the next few weeks in most Republican-controlled states and on September 6 in the remaining states.\"</b></p>\n<p>In other words, employers will likely hold out another 3 months until the end of emergency benefits expire at which point they expect a flood of workers to reverse the calculus in the labor market,<b>from one of no labor supply to a flood of supply.</b></p>\n<p>On the price side, Goldman's trimmed core PCE—which excludes the 30% most extreme month-to-month price changes, and as a reminder the surge in inflation last month was largely driven by soaring used car prices and transportation services, or as Goldman puts it \"outliers\" — remains at just 1.56% year-on-year, half the standard core PCE rate.&nbsp; This gap illustrates the unprecedented role of outliers in the recent inflation pickup.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3eaf58fed43ba69dc0224a4d192f457b\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"307\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Ultimately, to Goldman, the biggest question in the overheating debate remains whether US output and employment will rise sharply above potential in the next few years. If the answer is yes, then inflation could indeed climb to undesirable levels on a more permanent basis. Predictably, Goldman's answer continues to be no, and here's why: \"Even though real GDP is nearly back to the pre-pandemic level, we still see significant slack in the economy based on the remaining jobs shortfall of nearly 8 million and the pandemic-driven productivity gain of 4.1% year-on-year in Q1. Moreover, we think sequential GDP growth has probably already peaked in monthly terms and will trend down from here as the fiscal impulse wanes, modestly at first and then more sharply in late 2021 and 2022.\"</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5bbda3c1cc274419a5ecdfeea29dd30b\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"324\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Here JPMorgan also chimes in and in a recent note from economist Dan Silver writes that as we prepare for the CPI print, it is worthwhile to consider the impacts of the removal of federal unemployment benefits and increasing hourly wages. In Silver's note, he illustrates the growth in job openings among low-income jobs.</p>\n<p>JPM then asks the right question: \"<b>will wage increases remain durable if business owners know that supply is coming back online?\"</b>A question we have asked previously, and the answer is a decisive not. To JPM, if the answer is indeed no, \"we see a quicker than expected deceleration in wage growth, spending, and CPI.\" Although, alternatively, it seems more likely that we will also see a surge in jobs taken and potentially another leg higher in absolute macro data.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dd33a3897ee720aefc640dc061344a18\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"332\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">With that in mind, what's next on the inflation catalyst front and what will today's critical CPI print show?&nbsp; Here, Goldman estimates a 0.50% increase in May core CPI (in line with consensus), which will boost the year-on-year rate by six tenths to 3.55%, up from 3.0% which however is largely impacted by the base effect collapse of last year. Goldman's monthly core inflation forecast<b>\"reflects reopening-driven strength in airfares, hotel prices, and recreation prices.\"</b>Additionally, Goldman expects strong monthly readings in used cars (+6%) and new cars (+0.5%), reflecting \"one-time\" supply chain disruptions and microchip shortages.</p>\n<p>And while the Fed is more concerned with PCE inflation rather than CPI, Goldman concludes that even though the inflation burst is transitory, \"<b>it will be interesting to see how markets react to a 3.5%+ inflation report in a monetary regime that presumably is focused on keeping inflation around 2%.\"</b></p>\n<p></p>\n<p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Goldman Explains Why The Economy Won't Overheat, No Matter What Today's CPI Shows</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nGoldman Explains Why The Economy Won't Overheat, No Matter What Today's CPI Shows\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-06-10 15:35 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/goldman-explains-why-economy-wont-overheat-no-matter-what-tomorrows-cpi-shows?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+zerohedge%2Ffeed+%28zero+hedge+-+on+a+long+enough+timeline%2C+the+survival+rate+for+everyone+drops+to+zero%29><strong>zerohedge</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Yields on 10-year Treasuries dipped below 1.50% today for the first time since early March amid a furious shortsqueeze discussed earlier...\n... and as post-pandemic inflation concerns appear to be ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/goldman-explains-why-economy-wont-overheat-no-matter-what-tomorrows-cpi-shows?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+zerohedge%2Ffeed+%28zero+hedge+-+on+a+long+enough+timeline%2C+the+survival+rate+for+everyone+drops+to+zero%29\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","SPY":"标普500ETF"},"source_url":"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/goldman-explains-why-economy-wont-overheat-no-matter-what-tomorrows-cpi-shows?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+zerohedge%2Ffeed+%28zero+hedge+-+on+a+long+enough+timeline%2C+the+survival+rate+for+everyone+drops+to+zero%29","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1127298356","content_text":"Yields on 10-year Treasuries dipped below 1.50% today for the first time since early March amid a furious shortsqueeze discussed earlier...\n... and as post-pandemic inflation concerns appear to be waning as quickly as they flared up.\nThis is a point we first brought up last month when observing the collapse in China's credit impulse, arguably the most important variable for the entire global reflationary narrative (see \"China's Credit Impulse Just Turned Negative, Unleashing Global Deflationary Shockwave\")...\n... and it's a point that Goldman's chief economist Jan Hatzius reiterated in a note published on Tuesday titled simply \"Why the Economy Won’t Overheat,” in which he argues - the same as the Fed - that the inflation we are seeing so far is likely to be temporary and prices will normalize again as we leg further away from unprecedented pandemic activity curtailments.\nWhile we disagree - and so does Deutsche Bank,which sees nothing short of Weimar hyperinflationbeing unleashed by the Fed soon, something we first predicted in March 2009 as the ultimate endgame -  it is interesting that today, at least, markets appear to be adopting this view judging by the collapse in 10Y nominal rates and the recent breach of the upward trendline in breakevens...\n... this even as China's PPI printed at a Lehman Sept 2008 high of 9.0% overnight.\nSo what, according to Goldman is the reason for receding inflation fears? As Hatzius and strategist Chris Hussey explain, the past 2 payrolls reports have been underwhelming as the rush back to work \"is being slowed by generous stimulus as well as an inability — perhaps — to simply process so many new workers. On the one hand, fewer available workers should push up wages as companies compete to attract new workers. But a more orderly stream of employment in the post-pandemic recovery may also allow for a more extended reopening period and perhaps a bit less top-line pressure on prices.\"\nAnother reason for receding inflation fears may also simply be time. According to Goldman, as Americans become more accustomed to getting back to their daily routines, the strangeness of such activity recedes. And it is perhaps easier for investors to envision what‘normal’ will look like.  And perhaps that vision is collectively coalescing around a‘new normal’ that looks surprisingly similiar to the pre-pandemic ‘old normal’.\nHatzius then elaborates why the recent inflation pickup will remain transitory: \"On the wage side,labor supply should increase dramatically over the next 3-6 months as fear of the virus diminishes further and the $300/week benefit top-up expires—over the next few weeks in most Republican-controlled states and on September 6 in the remaining states.\"\nIn other words, employers will likely hold out another 3 months until the end of emergency benefits expire at which point they expect a flood of workers to reverse the calculus in the labor market,from one of no labor supply to a flood of supply.\nOn the price side, Goldman's trimmed core PCE—which excludes the 30% most extreme month-to-month price changes, and as a reminder the surge in inflation last month was largely driven by soaring used car prices and transportation services, or as Goldman puts it \"outliers\" — remains at just 1.56% year-on-year, half the standard core PCE rate.  This gap illustrates the unprecedented role of outliers in the recent inflation pickup.\nUltimately, to Goldman, the biggest question in the overheating debate remains whether US output and employment will rise sharply above potential in the next few years. If the answer is yes, then inflation could indeed climb to undesirable levels on a more permanent basis. Predictably, Goldman's answer continues to be no, and here's why: \"Even though real GDP is nearly back to the pre-pandemic level, we still see significant slack in the economy based on the remaining jobs shortfall of nearly 8 million and the pandemic-driven productivity gain of 4.1% year-on-year in Q1. Moreover, we think sequential GDP growth has probably already peaked in monthly terms and will trend down from here as the fiscal impulse wanes, modestly at first and then more sharply in late 2021 and 2022.\"\nHere JPMorgan also chimes in and in a recent note from economist Dan Silver writes that as we prepare for the CPI print, it is worthwhile to consider the impacts of the removal of federal unemployment benefits and increasing hourly wages. In Silver's note, he illustrates the growth in job openings among low-income jobs.\nJPM then asks the right question: \"will wage increases remain durable if business owners know that supply is coming back online?\"A question we have asked previously, and the answer is a decisive not. To JPM, if the answer is indeed no, \"we see a quicker than expected deceleration in wage growth, spending, and CPI.\" Although, alternatively, it seems more likely that we will also see a surge in jobs taken and potentially another leg higher in absolute macro data.\nWith that in mind, what's next on the inflation catalyst front and what will today's critical CPI print show?  Here, Goldman estimates a 0.50% increase in May core CPI (in line with consensus), which will boost the year-on-year rate by six tenths to 3.55%, up from 3.0% which however is largely impacted by the base effect collapse of last year. Goldman's monthly core inflation forecast\"reflects reopening-driven strength in airfares, hotel prices, and recreation prices.\"Additionally, Goldman expects strong monthly readings in used cars (+6%) and new cars (+0.5%), reflecting \"one-time\" supply chain disruptions and microchip shortages.\nAnd while the Fed is more concerned with PCE inflation rather than CPI, Goldman concludes that even though the inflation burst is transitory, \"it will be interesting to see how markets react to a 3.5%+ inflation report in a monetary regime that presumably is focused on keeping inflation around 2%.\"","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":371,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":183946915,"gmtCreate":1623303412437,"gmtModify":1634034766345,"author":{"id":"3585096019201823","authorId":"3585096019201823","name":"ppangsy","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/20471738d34ed6efdb59281b8fc3b6c8","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3585096019201823","authorIdStr":"3585096019201823"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Amazing! Are you all vested too?","listText":"Amazing! Are you all vested too?","text":"Amazing! Are you all vested too?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/183946915","repostId":"2142241372","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2142241372","kind":"highlight","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Reuters.com brings you the latest news from around the world, covering breaking news in markets, business, politics, entertainment and technology","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Reuters","id":"1036604489","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/443ce19704621c837795676028cec868"},"pubTimestamp":1623301086,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2142241372?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-10 12:58","market":"hk","language":"en","title":"HK-listed Ocumension Therapeutics hits near 5-month high on share sale plan","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2142241372","media":"Reuters","summary":"** Shares of Ocumension Therapeutics rise as much as 9.6% to HK$32.05, their highest since Jan. 18, ","content":"<p>** Shares of Ocumension Therapeutics rise as much as 9.6% to HK$32.05, their highest since Jan. 18, and on course for second session of gains</p>\n<p>** Stock on track for the best day since May 31</p>\n<p>** China-based ophthalmic therapies developer says major shareholders plan sale of 1.36% of the company stake to third-party investors for HK$236.5 mln ($30.5 mln)</p>\n<p>** The major shareholders, including 6 Dimensions Capital, 6 Dimensions Affiliates Fund, Suzhou <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/FRO\">Frontline</a> BioVentures Venture Capital Fund II, and Suzhou 6Dimensions Venture Capital Partnership, plan sale of 8.6 mln existing shares at HK$27.50 each, or 6% discount to Wednesday's close</p>\n<p>** Co says it does not expect the placing to have any adverse effect on its operations</p>\n<p>** <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MSTLW\">Morgan Stanley</a> &amp; Co International <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PLC\">PLC</a> is the placing agent</p>\n<p>** Hong Kong's healthcare index climbs 0.6%</p>\n<p>** Both the Hang Seng China enterprises index and the benchmark index gain 0.3%</p>\n<p>** As of last close, the stock had risen 8.3% this year</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>HK-listed Ocumension Therapeutics hits near 5-month high on share sale plan</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nHK-listed Ocumension Therapeutics hits near 5-month high on share sale plan\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1036604489\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/443ce19704621c837795676028cec868);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Reuters </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2021-06-10 12:58</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>** Shares of Ocumension Therapeutics rise as much as 9.6% to HK$32.05, their highest since Jan. 18, and on course for second session of gains</p>\n<p>** Stock on track for the best day since May 31</p>\n<p>** China-based ophthalmic therapies developer says major shareholders plan sale of 1.36% of the company stake to third-party investors for HK$236.5 mln ($30.5 mln)</p>\n<p>** The major shareholders, including 6 Dimensions Capital, 6 Dimensions Affiliates Fund, Suzhou <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/FRO\">Frontline</a> BioVentures Venture Capital Fund II, and Suzhou 6Dimensions Venture Capital Partnership, plan sale of 8.6 mln existing shares at HK$27.50 each, or 6% discount to Wednesday's close</p>\n<p>** Co says it does not expect the placing to have any adverse effect on its operations</p>\n<p>** <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MSTLW\">Morgan Stanley</a> &amp; Co International <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PLC\">PLC</a> is the placing agent</p>\n<p>** Hong Kong's healthcare index climbs 0.6%</p>\n<p>** Both the Hang Seng China enterprises index and the benchmark index gain 0.3%</p>\n<p>** As of last close, the stock had risen 8.3% this year</p>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"01477":"欧康维视生物-B"},"is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2142241372","content_text":"** Shares of Ocumension Therapeutics rise as much as 9.6% to HK$32.05, their highest since Jan. 18, and on course for second session of gains\n** Stock on track for the best day since May 31\n** China-based ophthalmic therapies developer says major shareholders plan sale of 1.36% of the company stake to third-party investors for HK$236.5 mln ($30.5 mln)\n** The major shareholders, including 6 Dimensions Capital, 6 Dimensions Affiliates Fund, Suzhou Frontline BioVentures Venture Capital Fund II, and Suzhou 6Dimensions Venture Capital Partnership, plan sale of 8.6 mln existing shares at HK$27.50 each, or 6% discount to Wednesday's close\n** Co says it does not expect the placing to have any adverse effect on its operations\n** Morgan Stanley & Co International PLC is the placing agent\n** Hong Kong's healthcare index climbs 0.6%\n** Both the Hang Seng China enterprises index and the benchmark index gain 0.3%\n** As of last close, the stock had risen 8.3% this year","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":249,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":183948547,"gmtCreate":1623303370789,"gmtModify":1634034766806,"author":{"id":"3585096019201823","authorId":"3585096019201823","name":"ppangsy","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/20471738d34ed6efdb59281b8fc3b6c8","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3585096019201823","authorIdStr":"3585096019201823"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Bad debt will hurt everyone","listText":"Bad debt will hurt everyone","text":"Bad debt will hurt everyone","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/183948547","repostId":"2142413772","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2142413772","kind":"highlight","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Reuters.com brings you the latest news from around the world, covering breaking news in markets, business, politics, entertainment and technology","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Reuters","id":"1036604489","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/443ce19704621c837795676028cec868"},"pubTimestamp":1623301535,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2142413772?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-10 13:05","market":"hk","language":"en","title":"China's top banking regulator warns of bad debt, local real estate bubbles","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2142413772","media":"Reuters","summary":"SHANGHAI, June 10 (Reuters) - China's top banking and insurance regulator said banks should guard ag","content":"<p>SHANGHAI, June 10 (Reuters) - China's top banking and insurance regulator said banks should guard against a rise in non-performing assets, as the country rolls back some of the relief measures implemented during the pandemic to help firms withstand the fallout.</p>\n<p>In 2020, the central bank encouraged financial institutions to lower rates for virus-stricken firms and extend payment deadlines, among other measures, to give borrowers some breathing space during the coronavirus crisis.</p>\n<p>\"The default rate for some large and medium-sized enterprises has risen, and the credit risks at banking institutions has intensified,\" Guo Shuqing told a financial forum in Shanghai via a video message.</p>\n<p>He said a growing trend of local real estate bubbles remained \"serious\".</p>\n<p>Corporate bond defaults have risen sharply in China in recent years, reaching $14 billion in 2020, according to the Institute of International Finance. Chinese banks extended a record $3 trillion in new loans in 2020, according to data from the People's Bank of China.</p>\n<p>Investors should also be aware of potential investment losses on financial derivative products, commodity-linked futures, and rising Ponzi schemes, Guo said.</p>\n<p>The regulator will also resolutely clean up illegal security issuance activities and fend off the pick-up in shadow banking activities, Guo added.</p>\n<p>Commenting on global markets, Guo, who also serves as the Communist Party chief at the central bank, said that monetary policies in some developed countries are \"unprecedentedly loose.\"</p>\n<p>\"These measures have stabilised the market in (the) short-term but require all countries in the world to share responsibility for the negative effects,\" he said.</p>\n<p>A rise in global inflation has arrived and may last longer than some of the U.S. and European experts have expected, Guo added.</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>China's top banking regulator warns of bad debt, local real estate bubbles</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nChina's top banking regulator warns of bad debt, local real estate bubbles\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1036604489\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/443ce19704621c837795676028cec868);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Reuters </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2021-06-10 13:05</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>SHANGHAI, June 10 (Reuters) - China's top banking and insurance regulator said banks should guard against a rise in non-performing assets, as the country rolls back some of the relief measures implemented during the pandemic to help firms withstand the fallout.</p>\n<p>In 2020, the central bank encouraged financial institutions to lower rates for virus-stricken firms and extend payment deadlines, among other measures, to give borrowers some breathing space during the coronavirus crisis.</p>\n<p>\"The default rate for some large and medium-sized enterprises has risen, and the credit risks at banking institutions has intensified,\" Guo Shuqing told a financial forum in Shanghai via a video message.</p>\n<p>He said a growing trend of local real estate bubbles remained \"serious\".</p>\n<p>Corporate bond defaults have risen sharply in China in recent years, reaching $14 billion in 2020, according to the Institute of International Finance. Chinese banks extended a record $3 trillion in new loans in 2020, according to data from the People's Bank of China.</p>\n<p>Investors should also be aware of potential investment losses on financial derivative products, commodity-linked futures, and rising Ponzi schemes, Guo said.</p>\n<p>The regulator will also resolutely clean up illegal security issuance activities and fend off the pick-up in shadow banking activities, Guo added.</p>\n<p>Commenting on global markets, Guo, who also serves as the Communist Party chief at the central bank, said that monetary policies in some developed countries are \"unprecedentedly loose.\"</p>\n<p>\"These measures have stabilised the market in (the) short-term but require all countries in the world to share responsibility for the negative effects,\" he said.</p>\n<p>A rise in global inflation has arrived and may last longer than some of the U.S. and European experts have expected, Guo added.</p>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{},"is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2142413772","content_text":"SHANGHAI, June 10 (Reuters) - China's top banking and insurance regulator said banks should guard against a rise in non-performing assets, as the country rolls back some of the relief measures implemented during the pandemic to help firms withstand the fallout.\nIn 2020, the central bank encouraged financial institutions to lower rates for virus-stricken firms and extend payment deadlines, among other measures, to give borrowers some breathing space during the coronavirus crisis.\n\"The default rate for some large and medium-sized enterprises has risen, and the credit risks at banking institutions has intensified,\" Guo Shuqing told a financial forum in Shanghai via a video message.\nHe said a growing trend of local real estate bubbles remained \"serious\".\nCorporate bond defaults have risen sharply in China in recent years, reaching $14 billion in 2020, according to the Institute of International Finance. Chinese banks extended a record $3 trillion in new loans in 2020, according to data from the People's Bank of China.\nInvestors should also be aware of potential investment losses on financial derivative products, commodity-linked futures, and rising Ponzi schemes, Guo said.\nThe regulator will also resolutely clean up illegal security issuance activities and fend off the pick-up in shadow banking activities, Guo added.\nCommenting on global markets, Guo, who also serves as the Communist Party chief at the central bank, said that monetary policies in some developed countries are \"unprecedentedly loose.\"\n\"These measures have stabilised the market in (the) short-term but require all countries in the world to share responsibility for the negative effects,\" he said.\nA rise in global inflation has arrived and may last longer than some of the U.S. and European experts have expected, Guo added.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":327,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":180241107,"gmtCreate":1623208623209,"gmtModify":1634035779384,"author":{"id":"3585096019201823","authorId":"3585096019201823","name":"ppangsy","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/20471738d34ed6efdb59281b8fc3b6c8","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3585096019201823","authorIdStr":"3585096019201823"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Yes economic recovery is on ghe way!","listText":"Yes economic recovery is on ghe way!","text":"Yes economic recovery is on ghe way!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/180241107","repostId":"2142299270","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":349,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":117266670,"gmtCreate":1623144312990,"gmtModify":1634036484563,"author":{"id":"3585096019201823","authorId":"3585096019201823","name":"ppangsy","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/20471738d34ed6efdb59281b8fc3b6c8","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3585096019201823","authorIdStr":"3585096019201823"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Have a wonderful trading day everyone!","listText":"Have a wonderful trading day everyone!","text":"Have a wonderful trading day everyone!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/117266670","repostId":"1187083602","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1187083602","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Stock Market Quotes, Business News, Financial News, Trading Ideas, and Stock Research by Professionals","home_visible":0,"media_name":"Benzinga","id":"1052270027","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d08bf7808052c0ca9deb4e944cae32aa"},"pubTimestamp":1623142795,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1187083602?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-08 16:59","market":"us","language":"en","title":"5 Stocks To Watch For June 8, 2021","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1187083602","media":"Benzinga","summary":"Wall Street expectsThor Industries, Inc.THO 0.05%to report quarterly earnings at $2.28 per share on ","content":"<ul>\n <li>Wall Street expects<b>Thor Industries, Inc.</b>THO 0.05%to report quarterly earnings at $2.28 per share on revenue of $3.01 billion before the opening bell. Thor shares gained 1.8% to $119.20 in after-hours trading.</li>\n <li><b>Marvell Technology Inc</b>&nbsp;MRVL&nbsp;reported better-than-expected results for its first quarter. Marvell shares gained 4.3% to $50.34 in the after-hours trading session.</li>\n <li>Analysts are expecting<b>Navistar International Corp</b>&nbsp;NAV 0.02%to have earned $0.72 per share on revenue of $2.30 billion for the latest quarter. The company will release earnings before the markets open. Navistar shares rose 0.1% to $44.39 in after-hours trading.</li>\n <li><b>Stitch Fix Inc</b>&nbsp;SFIX&nbsp;reported upbeat results for its third quarter and issued strong sales guidance for FY21. Stitch Fix shares jumped 16.2% to $67.30 in the after-hours trading session.</li>\n <li>Analysts expect&nbsp;<b>Casey's General Stores Inc</b>&nbsp;CASY&nbsp;to post quarterly earnings at $0.88 per share on revenue of $2.22 billion after the closing bell. Casey's shares rose 0.2% to $215.61 in after-hours trading.</li>\n</ul>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>5 Stocks To Watch For June 8, 2021</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n5 Stocks To Watch For June 8, 2021\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<div class=\"head\" \">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/d08bf7808052c0ca9deb4e944cae32aa);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Benzinga </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2021-06-08 16:59</p>\n</div>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<ul>\n <li>Wall Street expects<b>Thor Industries, Inc.</b>THO 0.05%to report quarterly earnings at $2.28 per share on revenue of $3.01 billion before the opening bell. Thor shares gained 1.8% to $119.20 in after-hours trading.</li>\n <li><b>Marvell Technology Inc</b>&nbsp;MRVL&nbsp;reported better-than-expected results for its first quarter. Marvell shares gained 4.3% to $50.34 in the after-hours trading session.</li>\n <li>Analysts are expecting<b>Navistar International Corp</b>&nbsp;NAV 0.02%to have earned $0.72 per share on revenue of $2.30 billion for the latest quarter. The company will release earnings before the markets open. Navistar shares rose 0.1% to $44.39 in after-hours trading.</li>\n <li><b>Stitch Fix Inc</b>&nbsp;SFIX&nbsp;reported upbeat results for its third quarter and issued strong sales guidance for FY21. Stitch Fix shares jumped 16.2% to $67.30 in the after-hours trading session.</li>\n <li>Analysts expect&nbsp;<b>Casey's General Stores Inc</b>&nbsp;CASY&nbsp;to post quarterly earnings at $0.88 per share on revenue of $2.22 billion after the closing bell. Casey's shares rose 0.2% to $215.61 in after-hours trading.</li>\n</ul>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"THO":"索尔工业","SFIX":"Stitch Fix Inc.","MRVL":"迈威尔科技","NAV":"纳威司达","CASY":"Caseys General Stores"},"is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1187083602","content_text":"Wall Street expectsThor Industries, Inc.THO 0.05%to report quarterly earnings at $2.28 per share on revenue of $3.01 billion before the opening bell. Thor shares gained 1.8% to $119.20 in after-hours trading.\nMarvell Technology Inc MRVL reported better-than-expected results for its first quarter. Marvell shares gained 4.3% to $50.34 in the after-hours trading session.\nAnalysts are expectingNavistar International Corp NAV 0.02%to have earned $0.72 per share on revenue of $2.30 billion for the latest quarter. The company will release earnings before the markets open. Navistar shares rose 0.1% to $44.39 in after-hours trading.\nStitch Fix Inc SFIX reported upbeat results for its third quarter and issued strong sales guidance for FY21. Stitch Fix shares jumped 16.2% to $67.30 in the after-hours trading session.\nAnalysts expect Casey's General Stores Inc CASY to post quarterly earnings at $0.88 per share on revenue of $2.22 billion after the closing bell. Casey's shares rose 0.2% to $215.61 in after-hours trading.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":162,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":114596308,"gmtCreate":1623078489904,"gmtModify":1634037175936,"author":{"id":"3585096019201823","authorId":"3585096019201823","name":"ppangsy","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/20471738d34ed6efdb59281b8fc3b6c8","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3585096019201823","authorIdStr":"3585096019201823"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Really wonderful to have discovered Tiger Brokers. Its intuitive platform and modern interface makes trading so easy!","listText":"Really wonderful to have discovered Tiger Brokers. Its intuitive platform and modern interface makes trading so easy!","text":"Really wonderful to have discovered Tiger Brokers. Its intuitive platform and modern interface makes trading so easy!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/114596308","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":136,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":115612605,"gmtCreate":1622985110207,"gmtModify":1634096408275,"author":{"id":"3585096019201823","authorId":"3585096019201823","name":"ppangsy","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/20471738d34ed6efdb59281b8fc3b6c8","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3585096019201823","authorIdStr":"3585096019201823"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Good choices for the 7 stocks","listText":"Good choices for the 7 stocks","text":"Good choices for the 7 stocks","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/115612605","repostId":"1198437149","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":380,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":115612933,"gmtCreate":1622985077622,"gmtModify":1634096408514,"author":{"id":"3585096019201823","authorId":"3585096019201823","name":"ppangsy","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/20471738d34ed6efdb59281b8fc3b6c8","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3585096019201823","authorIdStr":"3585096019201823"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"&nbsp;I support this.","listText":"&nbsp;I support this.","text":"I support this.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/115612933","repostId":"1120164826","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1120164826","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1622951745,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1120164826?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-06 11:55","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Zillow: Significant Downside Remains","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1120164826","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Summary\n\nShares of Zillow Group have come down some 30% since my \"Take Profits\" article was publishe","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p>\n<ul>\n <li>Shares of Zillow Group have come down some 30% since my \"Take Profits\" article was published on Seeking Alpha.</li>\n <li>However, and despite a definite improvement in the latest Q1 EPS report, the stock looks to have a further downside to come.</li>\n <li>That is because margins are dismal, forward adjusted EBITDA guidance for Q2 was weak (lower than Q1), and the outstanding share count continues to grow.</li>\n <li>Yet, the stock still trades with a forward P/E of nearly 100x.</li>\n</ul>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ba2b4c631e3e6b24aaf024fb49665ea3\" tg-width=\"768\" tg-height=\"512\"><span>Photo by Sundry Photography/iStock Editorial via Getty Images</span></p>\n<p>The&nbsp;<b>Zillow Group</b>&nbsp;(ZG) has, without a doubt, established itself as the #1 online real estate website and as one-stop shop for home-buying consumers. The company's recent pivot to what I'll call the iHome business (purchasing homes directly from consumers and then selling them on the open market) has been a positive catalyst of late in terms of revenue growth, and that business blends well with ZG's Mortgage Segment and Internet, Media, and Technology Segment. However, despite the recent and significant drop in the price of the shares, ZG still seem substantially overvalued in my opinion. That is because margins are - in a word - pathetic. In addition, Q2 guidance was weak and the company plans to hire an additional 2,000 employees this year. In my opinion, that will pressure margins even further through the remainder of the year.</p>\n<p><b>Investment Rationale</b></p>\n<p>Like many Americans, Zillow has become one of my favorite websites. I am surely not alone when it comes to frequently checking Zillow.com to see what the current \"Zestimate\" is for my home as well as for the homes I have owned in the past, and those of my friends and family.</p>\n<p>Indeed, marketing share data from Statista shows that Zillow is #1 in unique monthly visits, and Trulia - which the Zillow Group bought in 2014 - is #2. In aggregate that gives the Zillow group a stranglehold on the real estate website market (at least by the unique visits metric) at more than 3x the share as compared to what was once a highly competitive race with Realtor.com for consumers' eye-balls:</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/929acb56fa1d566e5f6c3ac0d250c2c2\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"553\"><span>Source:Statista</span></p>\n<p>But of course there are other metrics to judge the popularity and use of real estate websites. Here is more recent data (April 1, 2021) from SimilarWeb.com:</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/836f372f61ccb570286e9ac3e0f3143b\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"366\"><span>Source:SimilarWeb.com</span></p>\n<p>When it comes to average visit duration, pages viewed per visit, and bounce rate (the % of consumers that only view one-page then leave the site), Zillow and Trulia again show impressive comps. That said, note there must be other metrics that figure into the SimilarWeb ratings shown above because - from these metrics alone - one could argue rightmove.co.uk has the best stats as shown. Regardless, this graphic is another indicator that the Zillow/Trulia brand is very strong and the market leader.</p>\n<p>However, eye-balls aren't enough ... the views and activity need to be converted into profits, and that is where the Zillow Group is struggling in comparison to its rather lofty valuation.</p>\n<p><b>Q1 Earnings</b></p>\n<p>Zillow released its&nbsp;Q1 EPS report&nbsp;on May 4th. It was a strong report. GAAP net-income of $0.20/share&nbsp;beat estimates by a whopping $0.13. Revenue of $1.22 billion was a $120 million beat and was up 8% yoy. The company reported strong traffic on its website and mobile apps, with 221 million average monthly users (up 15% yoy) driving 2.5 billion visits during Q1 (up 19% yoy).</p>\n<p>The most interesting segment in Q1 was the iHome (or what ZG calls \"Zillow Offers\") because it accounted for ~57% of revenue and is the segment Zillow is counting on to be is profitable growth engine.</p>\n<p>However, as can be seen in the graphic below, the margins are - so far - quite puny:</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/82e5264c5427eb9f8b1987c2182cb39a\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"311\"><span>Source: Zillow'sQ1 EPS report</span></p>\n<p>As can be seen, the all-in return (after operating costs and interest expense) on the home buying/selling (flipping might be a better word) is a scant 4.94% of the average per-home revenue. That is despite what is generally considered to be a very hot-market real estate market across the nation. In addition, note the iHome business is a threat to the company's future growth aspirations because the pivot to iHome has pretty much cratered the company's Premier Agent business. The pivot also likely means more pressure on Zillow's advertising revenue which generally comes from the agents its iHome segment is now stealing away homes from. And all that for only 4.9% margins?</p>\n<p><b>Going Forward</b></p>\n<p>The chart below is the company's guidance for Q2:</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d976a71e1e72bb8f0c6ac3306aa4f100\" tg-width=\"628\" tg-height=\"337\"><span>Source: Zillow's Q1 EPS report</span></p>\n<p>At the midpoint of guidance total adjusted EBITDA ($128 million), note that&nbsp;<b>will be down considerably</b>&nbsp;from the $181 million in total adjusted EBITDA delivered in Q1.</p>\n<p>In addition, note the weighted average share-count at the end of Q1 (it was not included in the Q1 EPS report, but can be found in the&nbsp;SEC 10-Q filing) was 259,346,000 shares (up a whopping 23% yoy). And that share-count is expected to continue growing to an estimated 265.5 million shares at the end of Q2 (based on the guidance shown above).</p>\n<p><b>Valuation</b></p>\n<p>So we have weak margins, falling adjusted EBITDA and a significantly rising number of fully diluted shares. Hmmmm.</p>\n<p>Yet, despite the recent correction in the stock (note the stock is down ~30% since my Seeking Alpha article in March&nbsp;<i>Zillow: Take Profits</i>), the stock is still trading at a lofty valuation given the analysis of Q1 and Q2 guidance just presented. The&nbsp;Seeking Alpha forward P/E=97.7x.</p>\n<p>That is obviously a rich comparison in terms of Zillow's growth prospects (or non-growth...) considering the weak Q2 guidance. In addition, it is not clear to me what the catalyst will be to improve the company's awfully small margins going forward. That is especially the case considering&nbsp;<b>Zillow plans to hire an additional 2,000 employees this year</b>, increasing its headcount by some 40%. In my opinion, this headcount growth will be a significant headwind when it comes to increasing margins. That is, Zillow is not able to demonstrate increasing margins as it tries to scale-up its operations.</p>\n<p>Meantime, the pivot to iHome also means that ZG now has significantly more macro-level risks as it will be increasingly dependent on the ups (now..) and downs (coming...) of the housing market.</p>\n<p><b>Risks</b></p>\n<p>The risk of buying Zillow Group today is - in my opinion, a priced-to-near-perfection valuation level. I say \"near perfection\" because it was priced to perfection when I wrote my \"Take Profits\" article on ZG, and since it is down 30% since that piece was published, now I will simply call ZG a \"rich valuation\" proposition.</p>\n<p>The goods news is that Zillow has a relatively strong balance sheet: it ended the quarter with $4.7 billion in cash (up from $3.9 billion at the end of 2020) after completing a $551 million stock offering during the quarter.</p>\n<p>That compares to $2.259 billion in debt, which was down slightly from year-end. As a result, the company has an estimated $9.19/share in net cash based on the 265.5 million diluted shares outstanding at the end of Q1. And Zillow will likely need to keep a fair amount of cash in order to offset its higher risk profile due to direct exposure to the housing market. That is because history shows us the US housing market can change on-a-dime and could catch ZG holding a rather large inventory of homes.</p>\n<p><b>Summary &amp; Conclusion</b></p>\n<p>While Zillow's Q1 report was certainly much improved on a sequential basis, the company's own Q2 guidance seems to be more indicative of the thesis I presented in my last article on the company. That is, the stock's valuation simply appears to be substantially out-of-whack in comparison to its demonstrated growth metrics. More shares, falling sequential adjusted EBITDA in Q2 despite a hot and highly appreciating housing market and ... well, I just cannot understand the current valuation level. As a result, I maintain the opinion from my previous article: I wouldn't be interested in ZG until it reached the ~$50/share level.</p>\n<p>I will end with a five-year price chart of ZG and note that my $50 target is roughly where the stock was prior to the pandemic. Certainly the EPS reports issues since that time do not justify the rapid and substantial increase in the shares to $200 ... or, even the current $110 level.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8f243f9f555525da2dcb1589d18cd30f\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"403\"><span>Data byYCharts</span></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Zillow: Significant Downside Remains</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nZillow: Significant Downside Remains\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-06-06 11:55 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4433217-zillow-significant-downside-remains><strong>seekingalpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Summary\n\nShares of Zillow Group have come down some 30% since my \"Take Profits\" article was published on Seeking Alpha.\nHowever, and despite a definite improvement in the latest Q1 EPS report, the ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4433217-zillow-significant-downside-remains\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"Z":"Zillow"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4433217-zillow-significant-downside-remains","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1120164826","content_text":"Summary\n\nShares of Zillow Group have come down some 30% since my \"Take Profits\" article was published on Seeking Alpha.\nHowever, and despite a definite improvement in the latest Q1 EPS report, the stock looks to have a further downside to come.\nThat is because margins are dismal, forward adjusted EBITDA guidance for Q2 was weak (lower than Q1), and the outstanding share count continues to grow.\nYet, the stock still trades with a forward P/E of nearly 100x.\n\nPhoto by Sundry Photography/iStock Editorial via Getty Images\nThe Zillow Group (ZG) has, without a doubt, established itself as the #1 online real estate website and as one-stop shop for home-buying consumers. The company's recent pivot to what I'll call the iHome business (purchasing homes directly from consumers and then selling them on the open market) has been a positive catalyst of late in terms of revenue growth, and that business blends well with ZG's Mortgage Segment and Internet, Media, and Technology Segment. However, despite the recent and significant drop in the price of the shares, ZG still seem substantially overvalued in my opinion. That is because margins are - in a word - pathetic. In addition, Q2 guidance was weak and the company plans to hire an additional 2,000 employees this year. In my opinion, that will pressure margins even further through the remainder of the year.\nInvestment Rationale\nLike many Americans, Zillow has become one of my favorite websites. I am surely not alone when it comes to frequently checking Zillow.com to see what the current \"Zestimate\" is for my home as well as for the homes I have owned in the past, and those of my friends and family.\nIndeed, marketing share data from Statista shows that Zillow is #1 in unique monthly visits, and Trulia - which the Zillow Group bought in 2014 - is #2. In aggregate that gives the Zillow group a stranglehold on the real estate website market (at least by the unique visits metric) at more than 3x the share as compared to what was once a highly competitive race with Realtor.com for consumers' eye-balls:\nSource:Statista\nBut of course there are other metrics to judge the popularity and use of real estate websites. Here is more recent data (April 1, 2021) from SimilarWeb.com:\nSource:SimilarWeb.com\nWhen it comes to average visit duration, pages viewed per visit, and bounce rate (the % of consumers that only view one-page then leave the site), Zillow and Trulia again show impressive comps. That said, note there must be other metrics that figure into the SimilarWeb ratings shown above because - from these metrics alone - one could argue rightmove.co.uk has the best stats as shown. Regardless, this graphic is another indicator that the Zillow/Trulia brand is very strong and the market leader.\nHowever, eye-balls aren't enough ... the views and activity need to be converted into profits, and that is where the Zillow Group is struggling in comparison to its rather lofty valuation.\nQ1 Earnings\nZillow released its Q1 EPS report on May 4th. It was a strong report. GAAP net-income of $0.20/share beat estimates by a whopping $0.13. Revenue of $1.22 billion was a $120 million beat and was up 8% yoy. The company reported strong traffic on its website and mobile apps, with 221 million average monthly users (up 15% yoy) driving 2.5 billion visits during Q1 (up 19% yoy).\nThe most interesting segment in Q1 was the iHome (or what ZG calls \"Zillow Offers\") because it accounted for ~57% of revenue and is the segment Zillow is counting on to be is profitable growth engine.\nHowever, as can be seen in the graphic below, the margins are - so far - quite puny:\nSource: Zillow'sQ1 EPS report\nAs can be seen, the all-in return (after operating costs and interest expense) on the home buying/selling (flipping might be a better word) is a scant 4.94% of the average per-home revenue. That is despite what is generally considered to be a very hot-market real estate market across the nation. In addition, note the iHome business is a threat to the company's future growth aspirations because the pivot to iHome has pretty much cratered the company's Premier Agent business. The pivot also likely means more pressure on Zillow's advertising revenue which generally comes from the agents its iHome segment is now stealing away homes from. And all that for only 4.9% margins?\nGoing Forward\nThe chart below is the company's guidance for Q2:\nSource: Zillow's Q1 EPS report\nAt the midpoint of guidance total adjusted EBITDA ($128 million), note that will be down considerably from the $181 million in total adjusted EBITDA delivered in Q1.\nIn addition, note the weighted average share-count at the end of Q1 (it was not included in the Q1 EPS report, but can be found in the SEC 10-Q filing) was 259,346,000 shares (up a whopping 23% yoy). And that share-count is expected to continue growing to an estimated 265.5 million shares at the end of Q2 (based on the guidance shown above).\nValuation\nSo we have weak margins, falling adjusted EBITDA and a significantly rising number of fully diluted shares. Hmmmm.\nYet, despite the recent correction in the stock (note the stock is down ~30% since my Seeking Alpha article in March Zillow: Take Profits), the stock is still trading at a lofty valuation given the analysis of Q1 and Q2 guidance just presented. The Seeking Alpha forward P/E=97.7x.\nThat is obviously a rich comparison in terms of Zillow's growth prospects (or non-growth...) considering the weak Q2 guidance. In addition, it is not clear to me what the catalyst will be to improve the company's awfully small margins going forward. That is especially the case considering Zillow plans to hire an additional 2,000 employees this year, increasing its headcount by some 40%. In my opinion, this headcount growth will be a significant headwind when it comes to increasing margins. That is, Zillow is not able to demonstrate increasing margins as it tries to scale-up its operations.\nMeantime, the pivot to iHome also means that ZG now has significantly more macro-level risks as it will be increasingly dependent on the ups (now..) and downs (coming...) of the housing market.\nRisks\nThe risk of buying Zillow Group today is - in my opinion, a priced-to-near-perfection valuation level. I say \"near perfection\" because it was priced to perfection when I wrote my \"Take Profits\" article on ZG, and since it is down 30% since that piece was published, now I will simply call ZG a \"rich valuation\" proposition.\nThe goods news is that Zillow has a relatively strong balance sheet: it ended the quarter with $4.7 billion in cash (up from $3.9 billion at the end of 2020) after completing a $551 million stock offering during the quarter.\nThat compares to $2.259 billion in debt, which was down slightly from year-end. As a result, the company has an estimated $9.19/share in net cash based on the 265.5 million diluted shares outstanding at the end of Q1. And Zillow will likely need to keep a fair amount of cash in order to offset its higher risk profile due to direct exposure to the housing market. That is because history shows us the US housing market can change on-a-dime and could catch ZG holding a rather large inventory of homes.\nSummary & Conclusion\nWhile Zillow's Q1 report was certainly much improved on a sequential basis, the company's own Q2 guidance seems to be more indicative of the thesis I presented in my last article on the company. That is, the stock's valuation simply appears to be substantially out-of-whack in comparison to its demonstrated growth metrics. More shares, falling sequential adjusted EBITDA in Q2 despite a hot and highly appreciating housing market and ... well, I just cannot understand the current valuation level. As a result, I maintain the opinion from my previous article: I wouldn't be interested in ZG until it reached the ~$50/share level.\nI will end with a five-year price chart of ZG and note that my $50 target is roughly where the stock was prior to the pandemic. Certainly the EPS reports issues since that time do not justify the rapid and substantial increase in the shares to $200 ... or, even the current $110 level.\nData byYCharts","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":205,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":163094762,"gmtCreate":1623852836756,"gmtModify":1631890663427,"author":{"id":"3585096019201823","authorId":"3585096019201823","name":"ppangsy","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/20471738d34ed6efdb59281b8fc3b6c8","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3585096019201823","authorIdStr":"3585096019201823"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"I think the crash is coming soon","listText":"I think the crash is coming soon","text":"I think the crash is coming soon","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":7,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/163094762","repostId":"2143794134","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2143794134","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1623851280,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2143794134?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-16 21:48","market":"us","language":"en","title":"4 Moves to Make if the Stock Market Crashes Tomorrow","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2143794134","media":"Motley Fool","summary":"No one knows when a stock market crash could happen, but when it does, you should do these four things.","content":"<p>Is a stock market crash right around the corner? They're an inevitable part of investing, but no <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE\">one</a> knows if <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE.U\">one</a> will happen tomorrow, next week, next month, or even next year.</p>\n<p>Nothing you can do will prevent a crash from happening, but doing these four things can help you and your investment accounts survive one.</p>\n<h2>Calm your fears</h2>\n<p>Losing money can be terrifying, so any concerns you have are normal and understandable. But acting on those fears is likely to put you in a worse position overall.</p>\n<p>One way that you can calm your fears is by thinking about what the money you've invested is for. Is it for retirement? If it's money that you'll use in 20 years or more, how much will a stock market crash affect your ability to meet this goal? If you'd invested $10,000 between Jan. 2, 2000, and Dec. 31, 2020, into large-cap stocks, you would've endured the dot-com bubble bursting and the Great Recession. Despite all of that, you would've experienced a 7.47% average annual rate of return, and your current account value would've grown to $42,231.</p>\n<p>If the money that you're investing has an immediate use, such as paying college tuition in a year, it should be invested more conservatively. Over long periods of time, the stock market trends up, but you can still lose substantial amounts in the short term, so you shouldn't expose money that you need soon to excess risk.</p>\n<h2>Reassess your risk tolerances</h2>\n<p>If you are truly scared of losing a large portion of your assets, it's possible your accounts are invested more aggressively than what is appropriate for your risk tolerance. And reassessing your asset allocation model could help you limit those losses. For example, the more stock exposure your holdings have, the more money you could make during a bull market, but you're also likely to lose more money during a bear market.</p>\n<p>Let's say you were invested in large-cap stocks in 2002. You would've lost 22.1% of your account value. If you were invested in U.S. investment-grade bonds during that same period, you would've seen a 10.3% <i>increase</i> in your account value. But the following year, when the stock market rebounded, you would've earned a 28.7% return from those large-cap stock holdings and only 4.1% from owning bonds.</p>\n<p>Taking a quiz that examines how you feel about volatility and risk will give you a good idea of what percentage of stocks and bonds you should have. You never know when a stock market crash will occur, though, and an attempt to change your allocations when one is happening may be too late. That's why one of the best ways you can protect your accounts is by keeping them invested with the same asset allocation model during all market cycles.</p>\n<h2>Avoid selling your investments</h2>\n<p>Your account statements and balances may show lower figures when stock prices are dropping, but these aren't true losses yet. As long as you own your holdings, they will fluctuate higher and lower day to day.</p>\n<p>They technically only count as losses when you sell them, and what you ultimately care about is how they grow over time. If you had $10,000 invested in large-cap stocks at the beginning of 2008, you would've seen your account value decrease to $6,300 by the end of the year.</p>\n<p>Selling your investment would've locked in that loss of $3,700. If you held out though, you would've seen your account value rise to $7,967 by the end of 2009. In 2010, you would've had $9,360, and by 2011, you would've regained your initial investment and your accounts would be worth $10,858.</p>\n<h2>Consider buying more shares</h2>\n<p>If you'd invested in the <b>S&amp;P 500</b> on Jan. 2, 2020, by Dec. 31, 2020, you would've had a gain of 18.4%. But if you'd invested money on March 23, 2020, when this index hit its low for the year due to COVID-19 concerns, you would've had a 90% return by year end.</p>\n<p>That's why you should think about buying more shares of your highest conviction investments during a period of declining prices. You hear that you should be buying low and selling high, but when a bull market happens and prices are constantly appreciating, this becomes a lot harder.</p>\n<p>When prices do fall because of a stock market crash, if you have excess cash that you can invest or are implementing a dollar-cost averaging strategy, you get a unique opportunity to buy your securities at discounted prices.</p>\n<p>Chances are you'll experience a stock market crash more than once in your lifetime as an investor. And because you have no way of knowing exactly when one could occur, making sure you've thought through your strategy and learned ways that you can benefit from one will help you better weather the storm when it does finally happen.</p>","source":"fool_stock","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>4 Moves to Make if the Stock Market Crashes Tomorrow</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n4 Moves to Make if the Stock Market Crashes Tomorrow\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-06-16 21:48 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/06/16/4-moves-to-make-if-stock-market-crashes-tomorrow/><strong>Motley Fool</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Is a stock market crash right around the corner? They're an inevitable part of investing, but no one knows if one will happen tomorrow, next week, next month, or even next year.\nNothing you can do ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/06/16/4-moves-to-make-if-stock-market-crashes-tomorrow/\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"source_url":"https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/06/16/4-moves-to-make-if-stock-market-crashes-tomorrow/","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2143794134","content_text":"Is a stock market crash right around the corner? They're an inevitable part of investing, but no one knows if one will happen tomorrow, next week, next month, or even next year.\nNothing you can do will prevent a crash from happening, but doing these four things can help you and your investment accounts survive one.\nCalm your fears\nLosing money can be terrifying, so any concerns you have are normal and understandable. But acting on those fears is likely to put you in a worse position overall.\nOne way that you can calm your fears is by thinking about what the money you've invested is for. Is it for retirement? If it's money that you'll use in 20 years or more, how much will a stock market crash affect your ability to meet this goal? If you'd invested $10,000 between Jan. 2, 2000, and Dec. 31, 2020, into large-cap stocks, you would've endured the dot-com bubble bursting and the Great Recession. Despite all of that, you would've experienced a 7.47% average annual rate of return, and your current account value would've grown to $42,231.\nIf the money that you're investing has an immediate use, such as paying college tuition in a year, it should be invested more conservatively. Over long periods of time, the stock market trends up, but you can still lose substantial amounts in the short term, so you shouldn't expose money that you need soon to excess risk.\nReassess your risk tolerances\nIf you are truly scared of losing a large portion of your assets, it's possible your accounts are invested more aggressively than what is appropriate for your risk tolerance. And reassessing your asset allocation model could help you limit those losses. For example, the more stock exposure your holdings have, the more money you could make during a bull market, but you're also likely to lose more money during a bear market.\nLet's say you were invested in large-cap stocks in 2002. You would've lost 22.1% of your account value. If you were invested in U.S. investment-grade bonds during that same period, you would've seen a 10.3% increase in your account value. But the following year, when the stock market rebounded, you would've earned a 28.7% return from those large-cap stock holdings and only 4.1% from owning bonds.\nTaking a quiz that examines how you feel about volatility and risk will give you a good idea of what percentage of stocks and bonds you should have. You never know when a stock market crash will occur, though, and an attempt to change your allocations when one is happening may be too late. That's why one of the best ways you can protect your accounts is by keeping them invested with the same asset allocation model during all market cycles.\nAvoid selling your investments\nYour account statements and balances may show lower figures when stock prices are dropping, but these aren't true losses yet. As long as you own your holdings, they will fluctuate higher and lower day to day.\nThey technically only count as losses when you sell them, and what you ultimately care about is how they grow over time. If you had $10,000 invested in large-cap stocks at the beginning of 2008, you would've seen your account value decrease to $6,300 by the end of the year.\nSelling your investment would've locked in that loss of $3,700. If you held out though, you would've seen your account value rise to $7,967 by the end of 2009. In 2010, you would've had $9,360, and by 2011, you would've regained your initial investment and your accounts would be worth $10,858.\nConsider buying more shares\nIf you'd invested in the S&P 500 on Jan. 2, 2020, by Dec. 31, 2020, you would've had a gain of 18.4%. But if you'd invested money on March 23, 2020, when this index hit its low for the year due to COVID-19 concerns, you would've had a 90% return by year end.\nThat's why you should think about buying more shares of your highest conviction investments during a period of declining prices. You hear that you should be buying low and selling high, but when a bull market happens and prices are constantly appreciating, this becomes a lot harder.\nWhen prices do fall because of a stock market crash, if you have excess cash that you can invest or are implementing a dollar-cost averaging strategy, you get a unique opportunity to buy your securities at discounted prices.\nChances are you'll experience a stock market crash more than once in your lifetime as an investor. And because you have no way of knowing exactly when one could occur, making sure you've thought through your strategy and learned ways that you can benefit from one will help you better weather the storm when it does finally happen.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":309,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":123376390,"gmtCreate":1624410729010,"gmtModify":1631890663417,"author":{"id":"3585096019201823","authorId":"3585096019201823","name":"ppangsy","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/20471738d34ed6efdb59281b8fc3b6c8","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3585096019201823","authorIdStr":"3585096019201823"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Not a good sign","listText":"Not a good sign","text":"Not a good sign","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/123376390","repostId":"1139503540","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":276,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":120167381,"gmtCreate":1624315939843,"gmtModify":1631890663422,"author":{"id":"3585096019201823","authorId":"3585096019201823","name":"ppangsy","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/20471738d34ed6efdb59281b8fc3b6c8","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3585096019201823","authorIdStr":"3585096019201823"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Great opportunity to buy on dip (pls like andcomment)","listText":"Great opportunity to buy on dip (pls like andcomment)","text":"Great opportunity to buy on dip (pls like andcomment)","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":7,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/120167381","repostId":"1179870522","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":443,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":179218916,"gmtCreate":1626532413335,"gmtModify":1631890663415,"author":{"id":"3585096019201823","authorId":"3585096019201823","name":"ppangsy","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/20471738d34ed6efdb59281b8fc3b6c8","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3585096019201823","authorIdStr":"3585096019201823"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"They are not credible at all","listText":"They are not credible at all","text":"They are not credible at all","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/179218916","repostId":"2152168563","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2152168563","kind":"highlight","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Reuters.com brings you the latest news from around the world, covering breaking news in markets, business, politics, entertainment and technology","home_visible":1,"media_name":"T-Reuters","id":"1086160438","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a113a995fbbc262262d15a5ce37e7bc5"},"pubTimestamp":1626489317,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2152168563?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-07-17 10:35","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Pfizer Issues Voluntary Nationwide Recall For Twelve Lots Of Chantix Tablets Due To N-Nitroso Varenicline Content","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2152168563","media":"T-Reuters","summary":"Pfizer Inc:Pfizer Issues A Voluntary Nationwide Recall For Twelve Lots Of Chantix (Varenicline) Tablets Due To N-Nitroso Varenicline Content.Wholesalers, Distributors With Existing Inventory Of The Lo","content":"<p>Pfizer Inc:Pfizer Issues A Voluntary Nationwide Recall For Twelve Lots Of Chantix® (Varenicline) Tablets Due To N-Nitroso Varenicline Content.Wholesalers, Distributors With Existing Inventory Of The Lots Should Stop Use &amp; Distribution; Quarantine The Product Immediately.Pfizer-Recalling 2 Lots Of Chantix 0.5Mg, 2 Lots Of Chantix 1 Mg Tablets, 8 Lots Of Chantix Kit Of 0.5Mg/1 Mg Tablets Due To Presence Of Nitrosamine.Believes The Benefit/Risk Profile Of Chantix Remains Positive.To Date, Pfizer Has Not Received Any Reports Of Adverse Events That Have Been Related To This Recall.As Communicated By Fda, There Is No Immediate Risk To Patients Taking Chantix.Further Company Coverage:. ((Reuters.Briefs@Thomsonreuters.Com;)).</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Pfizer Issues Voluntary Nationwide Recall For Twelve Lots Of Chantix Tablets Due To N-Nitroso Varenicline Content</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nPfizer Issues Voluntary Nationwide Recall For Twelve Lots Of Chantix Tablets Due To N-Nitroso Varenicline Content\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1086160438\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/a113a995fbbc262262d15a5ce37e7bc5);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">T-Reuters </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2021-07-17 10:35</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Pfizer Inc:Pfizer Issues A Voluntary Nationwide Recall For Twelve Lots Of Chantix® (Varenicline) Tablets Due To N-Nitroso Varenicline Content.Wholesalers, Distributors With Existing Inventory Of The Lots Should Stop Use &amp; Distribution; Quarantine The Product Immediately.Pfizer-Recalling 2 Lots Of Chantix 0.5Mg, 2 Lots Of Chantix 1 Mg Tablets, 8 Lots Of Chantix Kit Of 0.5Mg/1 Mg Tablets Due To Presence Of Nitrosamine.Believes The Benefit/Risk Profile Of Chantix Remains Positive.To Date, Pfizer Has Not Received Any Reports Of Adverse Events That Have Been Related To This Recall.As Communicated By Fda, There Is No Immediate Risk To Patients Taking Chantix.Further Company Coverage:. ((Reuters.Briefs@Thomsonreuters.Com;)).</p>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"PFE":"辉瑞"},"is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2152168563","content_text":"Pfizer Inc:Pfizer Issues A Voluntary Nationwide Recall For Twelve Lots Of Chantix® (Varenicline) Tablets Due To N-Nitroso Varenicline Content.Wholesalers, Distributors With Existing Inventory Of The Lots Should Stop Use & Distribution; Quarantine The Product Immediately.Pfizer-Recalling 2 Lots Of Chantix 0.5Mg, 2 Lots Of Chantix 1 Mg Tablets, 8 Lots Of Chantix Kit Of 0.5Mg/1 Mg Tablets Due To Presence Of Nitrosamine.Believes The Benefit/Risk Profile Of Chantix Remains Positive.To Date, Pfizer Has Not Received Any Reports Of Adverse Events That Have Been Related To This Recall.As Communicated By Fda, There Is No Immediate Risk To Patients Taking Chantix.Further Company Coverage:. ((Reuters.Briefs@Thomsonreuters.Com;)).","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":613,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":180241107,"gmtCreate":1623208623209,"gmtModify":1634035779384,"author":{"id":"3585096019201823","authorId":"3585096019201823","name":"ppangsy","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/20471738d34ed6efdb59281b8fc3b6c8","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3585096019201823","authorIdStr":"3585096019201823"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Yes economic recovery is on ghe way!","listText":"Yes economic recovery is on ghe way!","text":"Yes economic recovery is on ghe way!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/180241107","repostId":"2142299270","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":349,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":167361581,"gmtCreate":1624247752943,"gmtModify":1631890663424,"author":{"id":"3585096019201823","authorId":"3585096019201823","name":"ppangsy","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/20471738d34ed6efdb59281b8fc3b6c8","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3585096019201823","authorIdStr":"3585096019201823"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Something is changing (pls like and comment)","listText":"Something is changing (pls like and comment)","text":"Something is changing (pls like and comment)","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/167361581","repostId":"1177259531","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1177259531","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1624246928,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1177259531?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-21 11:42","market":"fut","language":"en","title":"U.S. 30-Year Yield Drops Below 2% For First Time Since February","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1177259531","media":"Bloomberg","summary":"Treasury 30-year yields dropped below 2% for the first time since February as traders continued to u","content":"<p>Treasury 30-year yields dropped below 2% for the first time since February as traders continued to unwind reflation trades after the Federal Reserve’s hawkish pivot.</p>\n<p>Thirty-year yields fell two basis points to 1.99%, while benchmark rates declined as much as three basis points to 1.40%, lowest since early March. Short-end yields edged up.</p>\n<p>The spread between five- and 30-year notes tumbled last week to the narrowest for the year after the Fedprojectedtwo interest-rate increases by the end of 2023. The flattening move was aided by ascrambleto unwind curve steepeners, with the likes of Morgan Stanley and TD Securities stopped out of recommended trades, while Goldman Sachs analysts unwound outright 30-year short positions.</p>\n<p>The shift creates room for other central banks to turn more hawkish without fueling excessive gains in their currencies, triggering a flattening in the yield curve elsewhere. Australia’s three- and 10-year spread is at the tightest since February and a similar trend was observed in New Zealand.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2aea2a44f3077080e1a28c4db62ed0a9\" tg-width=\"930\" tg-height=\"523\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>The FOMC’s rate outlook has pushed short-end rates higher while longer-end rates fall as traders calculate that there’s now little risk that U.S. inflation will remain above target for long. St. Louis Fed President James Bullard added fuel to the debate on Friday, warning thatinflation risksmay necessitate a rate hike next year.</p>","source":"lsy1584095487587","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>U.S. 30-Year Yield Drops Below 2% For First Time Since February</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nU.S. 30-Year Yield Drops Below 2% For First Time Since February\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-06-21 11:42 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-06-21/u-s-30-year-yield-drops-below-2-for-first-time-since-february><strong>Bloomberg</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Treasury 30-year yields dropped below 2% for the first time since February as traders continued to unwind reflation trades after the Federal Reserve’s hawkish pivot.\nThirty-year yields fell two basis ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-06-21/u-s-30-year-yield-drops-below-2-for-first-time-since-february\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-06-21/u-s-30-year-yield-drops-below-2-for-first-time-since-february","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1177259531","content_text":"Treasury 30-year yields dropped below 2% for the first time since February as traders continued to unwind reflation trades after the Federal Reserve’s hawkish pivot.\nThirty-year yields fell two basis points to 1.99%, while benchmark rates declined as much as three basis points to 1.40%, lowest since early March. Short-end yields edged up.\nThe spread between five- and 30-year notes tumbled last week to the narrowest for the year after the Fedprojectedtwo interest-rate increases by the end of 2023. The flattening move was aided by ascrambleto unwind curve steepeners, with the likes of Morgan Stanley and TD Securities stopped out of recommended trades, while Goldman Sachs analysts unwound outright 30-year short positions.\nThe shift creates room for other central banks to turn more hawkish without fueling excessive gains in their currencies, triggering a flattening in the yield curve elsewhere. Australia’s three- and 10-year spread is at the tightest since February and a similar trend was observed in New Zealand.\n\nThe FOMC’s rate outlook has pushed short-end rates higher while longer-end rates fall as traders calculate that there’s now little risk that U.S. inflation will remain above target for long. St. Louis Fed President James Bullard added fuel to the debate on Friday, warning thatinflation risksmay necessitate a rate hike next year.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":517,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":160850686,"gmtCreate":1623782968445,"gmtModify":1631890663433,"author":{"id":"3585096019201823","authorId":"3585096019201823","name":"ppangsy","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/20471738d34ed6efdb59281b8fc3b6c8","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3585096019201823","authorIdStr":"3585096019201823"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Comment on my post pls!","listText":"Comment on my post pls!","text":"Comment on my post pls!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/160850686","repostId":"1191245053","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1191245053","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1623762167,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1191245053?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-15 21:02","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Quad-Witch Quandary: How Will Friday's $2 Trillion Gamma Expiration Impact Markets","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1191245053","media":"zerohedge","summary":"Last week, when discussing thebizarre summer doldrumsin the market which pushed the VIX to the lowest level since the onset of the covid pandemic, we said that this period of abnormal market quiet is likely to last until this Friday' quad-witch, when a massive amount of gamma and delta expire and are de-risked, in the process eliminating one of the natural downside stock buffers .So picking up on the topic of Friday' potentially market-moving opex, Goldman' in-house derivatives expert, Rocky Fis","content":"<p>Last week, when discussing thebizarre summer doldrumsin the market which pushed the VIX to the lowest level since the onset of the covid pandemic, we said that this period of abnormal market quiet is likely to last until this Friday' quad-witch, when a massive amount of gamma and delta expire and are de-risked, in the process eliminating one of the natural downside stock buffers (see \"4 Reasons Why The Market Doldrums End With Next Friday's Op-Ex\").</p>\n<p>So picking up on the topic of Friday' potentially market-moving opex, Goldman' in-house derivatives expert, Rocky Fishman, previews June’s upcoming expiration which he dubs as \"large - comparable to a typical quarterly.\" Specifically,<b>there are $1.8 trillion of SPX options expiring on Friday, in addition to $240 billion of SPY options and $200 billion of options on SPX and SPX E-mini futures.</b></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0d1ece116794c7f6523250fd682450e3\" tg-width=\"959\" tg-height=\"765\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>Yet while these totals are massive,<b>when adjusted for the index’s size the amount of expiring options within 10% of current spot is smaller than just about any quarterly over the past decade.</b></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/534b677774a92a59d4fe08f09359932b\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"298\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>It's worth noting that according to Goldman estimates that combos account<b>for 15-20% of SPX options,</b>so an adjusted open interest total would add up to $1.5tln, still much larger than total expiring single stock open interest ($775bln). Furthermore, with stocks at all time highs, it is to be expected that most of the June open interest is below the current SPX spot price. As shown in the chart below, the dual peaks are at 3,900 and 4,150. This means that after Friday, there may be a certain \"anti\"-gravity around those spots until gamma is refilled.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/adfcada2b0ef3f2ebbd684649a613043\" tg-width=\"936\" tg-height=\"541\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>The Goldman strategist then explains what he believes is below the abnormally low level of realized market vol, noting that - as we discussed last week - it is consistent with long gamma positioning. Consider that SPX<b>realized volatility over the past 13 trading days has been just 5.1% - the lowest 13-day realized vol since 2019.</b></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/afffda1e07736784ad695d95a9936421\" tg-width=\"952\" tg-height=\"558\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>This contrasts with extreme volatility in pockets of the single stock market; AMC, which had the highest contract volume among single stocks last week (but far less notional volume at$7bln/day than AMZN’s leading $120bln/day), has had close to 400% realized vol over the same period.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/df2b7aeaadb37160a7eaf0ac08ba31de\" tg-width=\"1236\" tg-height=\"561\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>Then, as Nomura's Charlie McElligott first noted last week, Goldman's derivatives team agrees that<b>the extremely low SPX realized volatility is consistent with the possibility that 18-Jun has left “the street” long index gamma, in which case Fishman echoeswhat we said last week, namely that \"realized volatility could pick up once positions are cleaner. \"</b>Meanwhile, the rising beta of VIX futures to the SPX indicates that investors expect short gamma dynamics to pick up should markets sell off. Translation:<u><b>the market will become much more volatile in a selloff.</b></u></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/76b01b8a05b70ec4f343626b1fad491b\" tg-width=\"931\" tg-height=\"560\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>Meanwhile, and in keeping with the latest memo stock squeeze, Goldman also notes that while single stock option volumes continue to be high, it is well short of Q1 peaks. The large percentage of all single stock option activity driven by retail, and the predictive value of retail activity, have both heightened the attention on the single stock option market in recent weeks. Recent growth in single stock option activity has been concentrated in low-share-price stocks, leaving a shar prise in contract-volume over the past two weeks that has not been matched by notional volume. When adjusting notional volume for the size of the equity market, Goldman finds that single stock volume has actually been on the low of its 2021 range over the past two weeks which means that the latest ramps had little to no gamma squeeze components to them.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9c6c3df49e3e5d1e4a7a0d9c24696e6a\" tg-width=\"1212\" tg-height=\"608\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>One final point which we discussed recently and which is in keeping with the growing retail participation in trading, is Goldman's observation that the trend toward shorter-dated SPX options (weeklies) and away from quarterlies, continues. That also is one of the reasons why Friday’s SPX expiration is smaller than many recent quarterlies, and why as it as approached expiration, its trading volume has been falling.</p>\n<p>As Goldman explains, investors have been increasingly adopting the full calendar of SPX expirations, including expirations every Monday and Wednesday, as they tailor their views around events. In fact,<b>the percentage of SPX option volume happening in 3rd Friday expirations is at an all-time low,</b>and is now smaller than the percentage happening in Monday and Wednesday expirations. One explanation for heightened ultra-short-dated volumes is the strong single stock volumes: and here an interest suggesting from Goldman - \"to the extent market makers are unable to cover the short single stock gamma generated by retail investors’ call buying, they may be actively trading long positions in strips of ultra-short-dated SPX index options to offset this gamma.\"</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bd0e886a62a61c70b0f299bd6c032a24\" tg-width=\"954\" tg-height=\"1128\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>Why is this important? because if this trend is large enough, it directly contributes to low implied and realized correlation.<b>Ironically, by ramping single name, \"most-shorted names\", retail investors are ushering a period of unorthodox calm across the rest of the market!</b></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Quad-Witch Quandary: How Will Friday's $2 Trillion Gamma Expiration Impact Markets</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nQuad-Witch Quandary: How Will Friday's $2 Trillion Gamma Expiration Impact Markets\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-06-15 21:02 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/quad-witch-quandary-how-will-fridays-2-trillion-gamma-expiration-impact-markets><strong>zerohedge</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Last week, when discussing thebizarre summer doldrumsin the market which pushed the VIX to the lowest level since the onset of the covid pandemic, we said that this period of abnormal market quiet is ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/quad-witch-quandary-how-will-fridays-2-trillion-gamma-expiration-impact-markets\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"SPY":"标普500ETF",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"source_url":"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/quad-witch-quandary-how-will-fridays-2-trillion-gamma-expiration-impact-markets","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1191245053","content_text":"Last week, when discussing thebizarre summer doldrumsin the market which pushed the VIX to the lowest level since the onset of the covid pandemic, we said that this period of abnormal market quiet is likely to last until this Friday' quad-witch, when a massive amount of gamma and delta expire and are de-risked, in the process eliminating one of the natural downside stock buffers (see \"4 Reasons Why The Market Doldrums End With Next Friday's Op-Ex\").\nSo picking up on the topic of Friday' potentially market-moving opex, Goldman' in-house derivatives expert, Rocky Fishman, previews June’s upcoming expiration which he dubs as \"large - comparable to a typical quarterly.\" Specifically,there are $1.8 trillion of SPX options expiring on Friday, in addition to $240 billion of SPY options and $200 billion of options on SPX and SPX E-mini futures.\n\nYet while these totals are massive,when adjusted for the index’s size the amount of expiring options within 10% of current spot is smaller than just about any quarterly over the past decade.\n\nIt's worth noting that according to Goldman estimates that combos accountfor 15-20% of SPX options,so an adjusted open interest total would add up to $1.5tln, still much larger than total expiring single stock open interest ($775bln). Furthermore, with stocks at all time highs, it is to be expected that most of the June open interest is below the current SPX spot price. As shown in the chart below, the dual peaks are at 3,900 and 4,150. This means that after Friday, there may be a certain \"anti\"-gravity around those spots until gamma is refilled.\n\nThe Goldman strategist then explains what he believes is below the abnormally low level of realized market vol, noting that - as we discussed last week - it is consistent with long gamma positioning. Consider that SPXrealized volatility over the past 13 trading days has been just 5.1% - the lowest 13-day realized vol since 2019.\n\nThis contrasts with extreme volatility in pockets of the single stock market; AMC, which had the highest contract volume among single stocks last week (but far less notional volume at$7bln/day than AMZN’s leading $120bln/day), has had close to 400% realized vol over the same period.\n\nThen, as Nomura's Charlie McElligott first noted last week, Goldman's derivatives team agrees thatthe extremely low SPX realized volatility is consistent with the possibility that 18-Jun has left “the street” long index gamma, in which case Fishman echoeswhat we said last week, namely that \"realized volatility could pick up once positions are cleaner. \"Meanwhile, the rising beta of VIX futures to the SPX indicates that investors expect short gamma dynamics to pick up should markets sell off. Translation:the market will become much more volatile in a selloff.\n\nMeanwhile, and in keeping with the latest memo stock squeeze, Goldman also notes that while single stock option volumes continue to be high, it is well short of Q1 peaks. The large percentage of all single stock option activity driven by retail, and the predictive value of retail activity, have both heightened the attention on the single stock option market in recent weeks. Recent growth in single stock option activity has been concentrated in low-share-price stocks, leaving a shar prise in contract-volume over the past two weeks that has not been matched by notional volume. When adjusting notional volume for the size of the equity market, Goldman finds that single stock volume has actually been on the low of its 2021 range over the past two weeks which means that the latest ramps had little to no gamma squeeze components to them.\n\nOne final point which we discussed recently and which is in keeping with the growing retail participation in trading, is Goldman's observation that the trend toward shorter-dated SPX options (weeklies) and away from quarterlies, continues. That also is one of the reasons why Friday’s SPX expiration is smaller than many recent quarterlies, and why as it as approached expiration, its trading volume has been falling.\nAs Goldman explains, investors have been increasingly adopting the full calendar of SPX expirations, including expirations every Monday and Wednesday, as they tailor their views around events. In fact,the percentage of SPX option volume happening in 3rd Friday expirations is at an all-time low,and is now smaller than the percentage happening in Monday and Wednesday expirations. One explanation for heightened ultra-short-dated volumes is the strong single stock volumes: and here an interest suggesting from Goldman - \"to the extent market makers are unable to cover the short single stock gamma generated by retail investors’ call buying, they may be actively trading long positions in strips of ultra-short-dated SPX index options to offset this gamma.\"\n\nWhy is this important? because if this trend is large enough, it directly contributes to low implied and realized correlation.Ironically, by ramping single name, \"most-shorted names\", retail investors are ushering a period of unorthodox calm across the rest of the market!","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":284,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":163092424,"gmtCreate":1623852792468,"gmtModify":1631890663434,"author":{"id":"3585096019201823","authorId":"3585096019201823","name":"ppangsy","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/20471738d34ed6efdb59281b8fc3b6c8","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3585096019201823","authorIdStr":"3585096019201823"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"I think the bear market is coming soon. Afterthe FOMC meeting that's due to happen tonight. Any thoughts?","listText":"I think the bear market is coming soon. Afterthe FOMC meeting that's due to happen tonight. Any thoughts?","text":"I think the bear market is coming soon. Afterthe FOMC meeting that's due to happen tonight. Any thoughts?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/163092424","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":538,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":183948547,"gmtCreate":1623303370789,"gmtModify":1634034766806,"author":{"id":"3585096019201823","authorId":"3585096019201823","name":"ppangsy","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/20471738d34ed6efdb59281b8fc3b6c8","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3585096019201823","authorIdStr":"3585096019201823"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Bad debt will hurt everyone","listText":"Bad debt will hurt everyone","text":"Bad debt will hurt everyone","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/183948547","repostId":"2142413772","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2142413772","kind":"highlight","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Reuters.com brings you the latest news from around the world, covering breaking news in markets, business, politics, entertainment and technology","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Reuters","id":"1036604489","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/443ce19704621c837795676028cec868"},"pubTimestamp":1623301535,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2142413772?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-10 13:05","market":"hk","language":"en","title":"China's top banking regulator warns of bad debt, local real estate bubbles","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2142413772","media":"Reuters","summary":"SHANGHAI, June 10 (Reuters) - China's top banking and insurance regulator said banks should guard ag","content":"<p>SHANGHAI, June 10 (Reuters) - China's top banking and insurance regulator said banks should guard against a rise in non-performing assets, as the country rolls back some of the relief measures implemented during the pandemic to help firms withstand the fallout.</p>\n<p>In 2020, the central bank encouraged financial institutions to lower rates for virus-stricken firms and extend payment deadlines, among other measures, to give borrowers some breathing space during the coronavirus crisis.</p>\n<p>\"The default rate for some large and medium-sized enterprises has risen, and the credit risks at banking institutions has intensified,\" Guo Shuqing told a financial forum in Shanghai via a video message.</p>\n<p>He said a growing trend of local real estate bubbles remained \"serious\".</p>\n<p>Corporate bond defaults have risen sharply in China in recent years, reaching $14 billion in 2020, according to the Institute of International Finance. Chinese banks extended a record $3 trillion in new loans in 2020, according to data from the People's Bank of China.</p>\n<p>Investors should also be aware of potential investment losses on financial derivative products, commodity-linked futures, and rising Ponzi schemes, Guo said.</p>\n<p>The regulator will also resolutely clean up illegal security issuance activities and fend off the pick-up in shadow banking activities, Guo added.</p>\n<p>Commenting on global markets, Guo, who also serves as the Communist Party chief at the central bank, said that monetary policies in some developed countries are \"unprecedentedly loose.\"</p>\n<p>\"These measures have stabilised the market in (the) short-term but require all countries in the world to share responsibility for the negative effects,\" he said.</p>\n<p>A rise in global inflation has arrived and may last longer than some of the U.S. and European experts have expected, Guo added.</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>China's top banking regulator warns of bad debt, local real estate bubbles</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; 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overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nChina's top banking regulator warns of bad debt, local real estate bubbles\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1036604489\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/443ce19704621c837795676028cec868);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Reuters </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2021-06-10 13:05</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>SHANGHAI, June 10 (Reuters) - China's top banking and insurance regulator said banks should guard against a rise in non-performing assets, as the country rolls back some of the relief measures implemented during the pandemic to help firms withstand the fallout.</p>\n<p>In 2020, the central bank encouraged financial institutions to lower rates for virus-stricken firms and extend payment deadlines, among other measures, to give borrowers some breathing space during the coronavirus crisis.</p>\n<p>\"The default rate for some large and medium-sized enterprises has risen, and the credit risks at banking institutions has intensified,\" Guo Shuqing told a financial forum in Shanghai via a video message.</p>\n<p>He said a growing trend of local real estate bubbles remained \"serious\".</p>\n<p>Corporate bond defaults have risen sharply in China in recent years, reaching $14 billion in 2020, according to the Institute of International Finance. Chinese banks extended a record $3 trillion in new loans in 2020, according to data from the People's Bank of China.</p>\n<p>Investors should also be aware of potential investment losses on financial derivative products, commodity-linked futures, and rising Ponzi schemes, Guo said.</p>\n<p>The regulator will also resolutely clean up illegal security issuance activities and fend off the pick-up in shadow banking activities, Guo added.</p>\n<p>Commenting on global markets, Guo, who also serves as the Communist Party chief at the central bank, said that monetary policies in some developed countries are \"unprecedentedly loose.\"</p>\n<p>\"These measures have stabilised the market in (the) short-term but require all countries in the world to share responsibility for the negative effects,\" he said.</p>\n<p>A rise in global inflation has arrived and may last longer than some of the U.S. and European experts have expected, Guo added.</p>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{},"is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2142413772","content_text":"SHANGHAI, June 10 (Reuters) - China's top banking and insurance regulator said banks should guard against a rise in non-performing assets, as the country rolls back some of the relief measures implemented during the pandemic to help firms withstand the fallout.\nIn 2020, the central bank encouraged financial institutions to lower rates for virus-stricken firms and extend payment deadlines, among other measures, to give borrowers some breathing space during the coronavirus crisis.\n\"The default rate for some large and medium-sized enterprises has risen, and the credit risks at banking institutions has intensified,\" Guo Shuqing told a financial forum in Shanghai via a video message.\nHe said a growing trend of local real estate bubbles remained \"serious\".\nCorporate bond defaults have risen sharply in China in recent years, reaching $14 billion in 2020, according to the Institute of International Finance. Chinese banks extended a record $3 trillion in new loans in 2020, according to data from the People's Bank of China.\nInvestors should also be aware of potential investment losses on financial derivative products, commodity-linked futures, and rising Ponzi schemes, Guo said.\nThe regulator will also resolutely clean up illegal security issuance activities and fend off the pick-up in shadow banking activities, Guo added.\nCommenting on global markets, Guo, who also serves as the Communist Party chief at the central bank, said that monetary policies in some developed countries are \"unprecedentedly loose.\"\n\"These measures have stabilised the market in (the) short-term but require all countries in the world to share responsibility for the negative effects,\" he said.\nA rise in global inflation has arrived and may last longer than some of the U.S. and European experts have expected, Guo added.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":327,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":117266670,"gmtCreate":1623144312990,"gmtModify":1634036484563,"author":{"id":"3585096019201823","authorId":"3585096019201823","name":"ppangsy","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/20471738d34ed6efdb59281b8fc3b6c8","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3585096019201823","authorIdStr":"3585096019201823"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Have a wonderful trading day everyone!","listText":"Have a wonderful trading day everyone!","text":"Have a wonderful trading day everyone!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/117266670","repostId":"1187083602","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":162,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":153080415,"gmtCreate":1624985515537,"gmtModify":1631890663416,"author":{"id":"3585096019201823","authorId":"3585096019201823","name":"ppangsy","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/20471738d34ed6efdb59281b8fc3b6c8","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3585096019201823","authorIdStr":"3585096019201823"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Such a crazy stock","listText":"Such a crazy stock","text":"Such a crazy stock","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/153080415","repostId":"1100563900","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1100563900","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1624956396,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1100563900?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-29 16:46","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Facebook: Simply Unstoppable","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1100563900","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"The #StopHateforProfit Campaign, antitrust allegations, Apple IDFA issue, and a host of other historical issues have not stopped the social media giant and will not stop it.Despite an impressive rally delivering 65% since the start of CY20 and 26% YTD, Facebook remains undervalued relative to its peers and the FAANG stocks with the best forward estimates.The strong moat originating from their sheer user base, and sizeable TAMs in E-commerce, VR/AR, digital assets , cumulatively make for a compel","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p>\n<ul>\n <li>The #StopHateforProfit Campaign, antitrust allegations, Apple IDFA issue, and a host of other historical issues have not stopped the social media giant and will not stop it.</li>\n <li>Despite an impressive rally delivering 65% since the start of CY20 and 26% YTD, Facebook remains undervalued relative to its peers and the FAANG stocks with the best forward estimates.</li>\n <li>The strong moat originating from their sheer user base, and sizeable TAMs in E-commerce, VR/AR, digital assets (DIEM), cumulatively make for a compelling growth story.</li>\n <li>Although the company is highly controversial and rightfully so, this article focuses more on the quantitative analysis and less on the morals and ethics behind this investment. That, we shall leave to you.</li>\n</ul>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3b3414073b72a391e760025594ec111f\" tg-width=\"768\" tg-height=\"528\"><span>nemke/E+ via Getty Images</span></p>\n<p><b>Investment Thesis</b></p>\n<p>Facebook (FB) has had a volatile trading period the past few years with a general uptrend, delivering shareholders nice returns whilst subjecting them to a few major dips which presented investors an opportunity for a steal. Despite the controversy and headline risks every now and then, the company has been able to battle through them and emerge ever so stronger. The company’s financials have been holding up and shows no sign of stoppage anytime soon. In a time as such, with significant uncertainty in the macro environment and inflation fears creeping up, we believe that shifting some of your assets to high cashflow generating companies is a wise strategy that will pay off. Growth and value are 2 different things, and there still exists growth companies that are undervalued and can still generate substantial cashflow, and we believe Facebook is one of them. The company also remains to be one of the more attractive blue-chip stocks compared to the others in the FAANG. We employ a 3–5-year outlook and have been bullish since USD$200/share. Let’s Begin!</p>\n<p><b>What is Facebook</b></p>\n<p>Known to all, Facebook is a social media giant with a family of products including the likes of Facebook, Instagram,WhatsApp, Messenger, and now Oculus. The firm essentially has a stronghold in the social media industry and has an impressive DAP of2.72 BN as of Q1’21and MAP of 3.45 BN.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e3d08f4df186c4705a5300f40d6b8a5e\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"429\"><span>(Source:FB Q1’21 Presentation)</span></p>\n<p>The world has7.874 BNpeople as of the time of this writing and that would mean that 43.8% of all the people in the world use some form of product from Facebook’s portfolio in the past 30 days. On a daily basis, 34.5% of the people in the world use it. If that isn’t a sticky service, nothing really is. If we were to focus on the usage of the Facebook app solely, 23.8% of the world logs into the app daily based on DAUs.</p>\n<p>The firm was founded in 2004 and generates the majority of their revenue from advertisements. If you have watched the social dilemma on Netflix, you would realize that Facebook’s real customer isn’t everyday users. Instead, users are the product, and they are being sold to advertisers. The company has created such an engaging and sticky service that users are more than happy to be using their apps, despite knowing that their data is being sold from one company to another. As appalling as it is, they’re indifferent to it all and still find the value in using the company’s products on a daily basis – keeping in touch with distant relatives, chatting with friends, staying up to date with the latest fashion trends and news… (According to the&nbsp;Pew Research Center, more than a 1/3 of US adults say they get their news regularly from Facebook)</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7cb9d05bb00f3038cec301c72ef56827\" tg-width=\"608\" tg-height=\"378\"><span>(Source:Pew Research Center)</span></p>\n<p>To Facebook, this is equally as good as the more users, the wider the ‘product’ base that they have to offer their customers - advertisers. Advertisers are also indifferent to how Facebook attains its data, so long as Facebook’s targeting metrics and trackers are working well, the more likely it is that they are able to generate conversions. The more conversions, the more sales for them, the more ads they continue to pay for, the more revenue Facebook generates. Win-Win-Win, their apps are the bait, and the product (users), customers (advertisers), and supplier (Facebook), all walk away winners. It’s a remarkable business model that has stood the test of time and no matter the amount of controversy around the business, founders, and its practices, it isn’t going anywhere anytime soon and for one simple reason: Users likely can’t do without Facebook’s products whether they are willing to admit it or not.</p>\n<p>When we look back in the past to reflect on how the #StopHateForProfit Campaign turned out for the company, it is apparent that the impact it had on the top and bottom line were both minimal. The boycott was one that arose due to Facebook’s bad hate speech regulations and policing, and because of the laissez-faire attitude toward posts from then President, Donald Trump. More than&nbsp;1000 companies publicly committed&nbsp;to boycotting the social media giant in June/July (coinciding with end Q2 and start Q3) and many of the top 100 advertisers based on ad spend such as Nike, Adidas, Puma, Coca-Cola, all revised their budgets downwards.</p>\n<p>Despite this, Facebook&nbsp;beat on Q2 earnings&nbsp;and saw an increase of&nbsp;10.7% YOY. In its forward guidance, the company also announced that for July, they were anticipating a slowdown in YoY growth of 17% but was still due to see a 10% increase. They alsoanticipatedthe slowdown in growth to last through till October. However, the company did not attribute this slowdown to the boycott specifically but to 3 other major headwinds. With the benefit of hindsight, we can now see that even for Q3’20, the firm saw an impressive 21.6% rise in its top line, with the bottom line still registering a 12.2% improvement in NPM for Q2’20 YoY and a 200 bps NPM improvement in Q3.</p>\n<p>The results are clear and indicative of a few things. The boycott by the largest companies did little to Facebook’s financial story as they still managed to register growth and did not see significant pullbacks that were material. This can be tied to the fact that most of Facebook’s advertisers are SMBs. Although certain few SMBs did join the boycott, most didn’t, and the firm still had their impressive 9 million + customer base to rely on. If anything, this also suggests that despite what any SMB stands for and whether they agree with a social cause or not, it is hard for them to find alternatives that they can shift to on a similar pricing scale. Big brands can easily pivot to other advertisements such as TV and radio commercials but SMBs simply can’t because of smaller budgets. Lastly, it is now clear that the campaign affected Facebook’s reputation more so than it did its cashflow.</p>\n<p><b>Risks</b></p>\n<p>Other risks that the company may face would be future antitrust lawsuits. As it is, the company is already facing allegations of being a monopoly based on their aggressive acquisitive history having acquired more than90 other companiessince inception. They were alsofined US$5 BNby the FTC in 2019 and were required to adopt their policies and employ new protections for the users and their data that has been shared.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f694ca79d59162e95f05335ebefbca3d\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"384\"><span>(Source: TIKR.com)</span></p>\n<p>Though representative of a historic penalty and the largest ever imposed on a company for violating user’s privacy rights, the US$5BN was a drop in the bucket for the giant that went on to generate US$70+ BN dollars for the year.</p>\n<p>The current issues that they have with Apple’s new iOS changes and the IDFA implications are also likely not going to have a substantial impact on the firm. The Identifier for Advertisers [IDFA] is a random device identifier assigned by Apple to a user's device. Advertisers use this to track data so they can deliver customized advertising on mobile. With the new iOS changes, Apple essentially programmed it such that each app that wants to use these identifiers will have to ask users to opt in for tracking when the app is first launched. If users opt out, the app can’t track certain data and Facebook will have a smaller database of points to rely upon. As consumer preferences change, so will Facebook’s targeting that relies on IDFAs get worse and less effective due to outdated data points.</p>\n<p>According to aCNBC article:</p>\n<blockquote>\n Most critically at stake for Facebook is what’s known as view-through conversions. This metric is used by ad-tech companies to measure how many users saw an ad, did not immediately click on it, but later made a purchase related to that ad.”\n</blockquote>\n<p>When the conversion is made later on, the data IDFA for that particular user is then shared by the retailer to Facebook which is then used by the company to see if it matches the IDFA of the user who saw the ad. If they pair, it indicates that the ad was useful in generating a conversion. This data performance is then relayed to advertisers so that they can tweak their ad strategies accordingly. Withas much as 96% of usersanticipated to opt out of tracking on all apps, this would mean that mobile ads on 3rdparty apps may no longer be as useful if Facebook cannot really judge its effectiveness anymore. The more ineffective the ads become, the less conversions for retailers, and the more they pivot to other advertising platforms, which will impact the revenues for the firm.</p>\n<p>However, Facebook has disclosed that this will particularly only affect one form of advertisement which relies heavily on the IDFA, known as Audience Networks. Fortunately, the audience network segment only represents less than 10% of the firm’s total revenues. With the impact estimating to cost a drop in50% of all ads deliveredand hence sales from this segment, this would atbest represent a 5% drop in their total revenues. With that said, we do not anticipate that this will be present significant impact moving forward and the firm can easily recoup the 5% loss at worse by focusing on increasing ARPUs and user engagement to save their core business.</p>\n<p>Though Facebook started by disclosing that they anticipated the impact on their revenues to be large at first, this no longer seems to be the case. If anything, history has shown us that Mark is not one to back down and if he doesn’t get his way, he damn well will find another way to minimise loss and increase revenue generation in other segments to make up for it. If you aren’t too involved in the technicalities, we think it’s safe to bet on the jockey in this case. Besides, AR / VR growth,WhatsApp monetization, Reels monetization, further user growth in less developed countries away from the legacy North America and Europe region can very well pick up the lost (US$5BN) in sales.</p>\n<p><b>Moat</b></p>\n<p>As mentioned above, the DAUs and MAUs for Facebook are very impressive with a large portion of the world using at least 1 of their products. The moat for the business relies on the wide user base that Facebook has meticulously built over the course of 17 years. With any new product that they have, the firm can easily roll it out to their database of users and expect demand to pick up in a matter of weeks, maybe even days. That is the power of the network of Facebook that really can’t be valued.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2057a83640201edd89430e754f3f8525\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"431\"><span>(Source: FB Q1’21 Presentation)</span></p>\n<p>Despite the controversy, endless allegations, and negative headlines one after the other, the numbers don’t lie. DAUs have been increasing every single quarter, with the fastest growth observed in Asia-Pacific and the rest of the world. US &amp; Canada growth has slowed as it nears saturation levels, and this is perfectly normal and to be expected. The way we anticipate Facebook to grow their core cash cow business moving forward is clean. 1) Focus on growing ARPUs in their saturated legacy areas (US &amp; Canada and Europe) as well as 2) Increase User Growth by Geography in their growth areas (Asia-Pacific and the Rest of the World). Unsurprisingly, Facebook has been focused on doing just that.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ce3456321584d2eea288f7e410215571\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"388\"><span>(Source: FB Q1’21 Presentation)</span></p>\n<p>When we look to the infamous metric for judging social media companies and their performance – ARPUs, we can see that in the legacy areas, ARPUs have been increasing at a faster pace than compared to growth areas. This falls in line with point number 1 as mentioned above. The legacy areas have already reached saturation levels and user growth is unable to grow at astounding rates anymore. However, since this represent areas that are more developed and generally have higher disposable incomes on the average, focusing on increasing ARPUs and monetizing advertisers is the right strategy and a very feasible one. Though the growth areas are also seeing ARPUs grow YoY as they should, they are not at the same pace as in the US &amp; Canada and Europe. When we look to revenue generated by geography below, this confirms the thesis that revenue is growing faster than user base in those areas, and since ARPU equal to (Total Revenue from that Geography / Number of Users in that area), so long revenue is growing at a faster pace than the user base, they should increase meaningfully.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/84eaec3de9bafd595bf4ecf9ffdae16a\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"430\"><span>(Source: FB Q1’21 Presentation)</span></p>\n<p>When we look to the slide below, it is also apparent that user numbers are growing much faster in Asia-Pacific and the rest of the world, away from the legacy areas. Across 2 years, MAUs which is the broadest business performance metric employed by Facebook, grew 22.4% and 25.4% in the growth areas while they only grew a mere 6.6% in US &amp; Canada and 10.2% in Europe.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2d72be6c3ca7eb809567503ffc1d4ed9\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"395\"><span>(Source: FB Q1’21 Presentation)</span></p>\n<p>If Facebook can continue to grow their user engagement numbers in the growth areas whilst maximizing ARPUs in legacy areas, the company can easily ensure that the core advertising model will remain the cash cow of the business, funding growth for their other product developments.</p>\n<p><b>Growth Tactics</b></p>\n<p>When we look to potential growth Facebook has, the company isn’t short of any. Facebook has moved to monetizeWhatsApp, where they plan to generate fees from payments made within the app itself as well as through in-app status advertisements. The company is essentially trying to integrate the growth and TAM of the E-commerce market more seamlessly into their family of products including the likes ofWhatsApp. ThroughFacebook Pay, users can now engage in peer-to-peer payments withinWhatsApp itself at no cost. However, when businesses receive a fee from customers through the app itself, they will then have to pay a small ‘processing fee’ to Facebook and this is where it profits. This is the same method that is being employed by Shopify and all the other payment processing channels just that it is now being done locally inWhatsApp itself.WhatsApp payments has launched in Brazil, the 2nd largest market by users and the fee stands at 3.99%.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4d1d27ff399e3e6fdfbc44a3ff1fb6e6\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"557\"><span>(Source:Facebook Newsroom)</span></p>\n<p>The firm has also been trying to grow their presence in the E-commerce market and reduce the friction customers experience when clicking through ads on its platforms. Both Instagram checkout and Facebook shops are aimed at doing just that. Their shops solutions are also expanding toWhatsApp, and the marketplace as observed above. The company sees a major shift to online shopping even after the grand reopening of the economies. As part of its effort over the years, they now have 1.2M active shops across their platforms and more than 300M monthly shop visitors. Thelatest releasestates that:</p>\n<blockquote>\n Soon, we’ll give businesses in select countries the option to showcase their Shop inWhatsApp. In the US, we’ll enable them to bring Shops products into Marketplace, helping them reach the more than 1 billion people globally who visit each month.\n</blockquote>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/38d87012cd9e376a0bed27a095b01828\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"418\"><span>(Source:Facebook Newsroom)</span></p>\n<p>What’s even more fascinating is the fact that Facebook now plans to integrate new technologies such as AR Dynamic Ads to power the future of shopping. New visual discovery tools on their platforms like Instagram will help customers find new products that they resonate with faster than ever before and help them to visualize their products with AR experiences that they have been working on for a long time now.</p>\n<p>Their continued expansion in the AR/VR market along with the rollout of DIEM, their native digital currency functioning as a stablecoin that was once under the “Libra Project” also presents good growth opportunity in the near future. Facebook is also looking to introducepodcasts and live audio streamsas part of the beginning of their audio journey. In short, Facebook still has a lot of room to grow moving forward apart from looking to squeeze out more cash from their legacy advertising business model. However, as always, product development is one thing, but the financials do need to shape up as well and with Facebook it does.</p>\n<p><b>Financials</b></p>\n<p>Of the FAANG stock group, Facebook enjoys one of the highest margins. The company saw 80.55% in GM in Q1’21 and even in the past, it has enjoyed such high margins, trading between 80.5% to as high as 86.6% in FY17. The chart below also clearly indicates that the remarkable margins trickle down to the bottom line and aren’t wiped out due to operating expenses, registering a NPM of 35.7%.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1367468f26c73bde43f494b2b7fb49d6\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"467\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p>\n<p>FB also routinely spends a large portion of their revenues on R&amp;D, reinvesting into the business YoY to further improve their products and innovate on new ones. In 2020 the R&amp;D expense represented 21.5% of total sales.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4b923685aa0489833ae8f50fcddf3601\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"384\"><span>(Source: TIKR.com)</span></p>\n<p>A large chunk of the firms’ revenues is also retained on the balance sheet which is then used over the years to funnel money to continue their acquisitive culture. Despite this, the strong cashflow that the firm enjoys allows it to stay at the top of their industry in terms of innovation whilst ensuring that their treasure trove of cash is growing should there be a need to deploy it. When we look to liquid cash that the firm holds (Cash &amp; Equivalents, and STI), Facebook has grown it at a tremendous CAGR of 26.2%. Net Debt has also just been becoming less of a concern over the years. To date, even after the pandemic, Facebook has no debt.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/13b40cadc31458233d0ea83ce4917c33\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"384\"><span>(Source: TIKR.com)</span></p>\n<p>Given the data above, it is evident that the firm has one of the most pristine balance sheets in the industry and in the whole stock market. The US$62 BN that they hold as cash presents itself as a massive buffer to cushion the impact of whatever comes their way, be it another acquisitive opportunity, or yet another fine. Either way, the company can weather any financial storm and near balance sheet issues aren’t a problem. Shareholders aren’t too pleased with the cash pile just sitting there and would instead rather the firm start paying a dividend or pick up the pace in share buybacks to maximize investor returns. Facebook has never paid a dividend in its entirety and although they may consider that moving forward, we anticipate that it is not a move that they will commit to. In any case, we ourselves hope that they commit to more share buybacks instead of moving to issue a dividend.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3f5b82506a0385a1265c494b21462678\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"43\"><span>(Source:Q1 10-K Filing SEC)</span></p>\n<p>In their 10-K filing, the company expanded their SRP program to include an additional US$25 BN which will be added atop the US$8.6 BN remaining from a 2017 authorization. That amounts to a current authorized SRP valued at around US$33.6 BN and we anticipate that this may further increase substantially moving forward. Despite outstanding shares reducing overtime, a large part is offset by additional equity issued as part of SBC to employees. It is disappointing that the firm isn’t making more of a definitive move to put that cash pile to use but this is nonetheless not a major red flag.</p>\n<p><b>Valuations</b></p>\n<p>Being a blue-chip company with strong FCF, we would normally value the social media giant with a DCF model. Today, however, we will be looking at EV/Sales and P/E Ratios to try and justify its future valuation, looking 3 years out as always to end 2023.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0878b205b837634b7d2528f57ebe84fc\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"321\"><span>(Source:Seeking Alpha)</span></p>\n<p>Looking 3 years out to end 23, Facebook is projected to grow revenues at an average of 23.4%, with growth in the 30s for this fiscal year. That would mean that Facebook is anticipated to grow revenues to US$160.8 BN by end 2023, up 87% from what they delivered in FY20 in 3 years.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1707f8cfee45ce9ebb0e3ac961e78f48\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"338\"><span>(Source: TIKR.com)</span></p>\n<p>Since 2018, the firm has traded at an average EV/Sales of 8.85, and last exchanged hands at a multiple of 9.76. Although the firm is trading at a multiple above its mean and higher than any of the other stocks as part of the FAANG group, Facebook does have higher estimates than all the other companies in the near future as observed below. The data does not reflect estimates for 2023.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/444e1473e814530e2332cea02637af53\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"384\"><span>(Source: TIKR.com)</span></p>\n<p>Moreover, when we look further into the past all the way back to 2013, the company has historically traded at an average of 12.82 and even registered a high close to 22 in 2014. However, since we want to be conservative, but believe that the market has yet to really price Facebook for what it’s worth given all the headline risks in the media that have induced immediate selloffs without any fundamental reason, we will employ a multiple of 9.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8494d3084eed106a9cb0bff0f27cfe7a\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"384\"><span>(Source: TIKR.com)</span></p>\n<p>At an EV/Sales multiple of 9, that would put Facebook at a US$1.447 TRN dollar valuation by the end of 2023 and a share price of US$539, an upside of 58%.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/55014da5e82d1a67caaeb34766b35940\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"294\"><span>(Source:Seeking Alpha)</span></p>\n<p>When we look to revenue surprise and analyst estimate beat / miss trends, Facebook has quite the historical track record of surpassing estimates, having done so 10/12 times in the past 3 years. The average upside surprise stands at 3.59%. Assuming Facebook will continue to deliver the same upside surprise moving forward, a 3.59% beat to the top line estimate of 2023 would warrant revenues of US$166.57 BN. At the same EV/Sales ratio of 9, that would render a higher valuation of US$558.77 USD. Given that Facebook is very close to crossing the US$1 TRN dollar valuation mark, we anticipate this to be a very realistic price target.</p>\n<p>Now shifting on to another valuation method by P/E multiples, the valuation also paints a similar picture.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5d67f3c257657bc10ee6be38c16d2a1f\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"207\"><span>(Source:Seeking Alpha)</span></p>\n<p>Turning to earnings estimates, the company is also projected to do high-teens digit growth for 2022 and 2023 and a close to 30% growth in the bottom line for this fiscal year.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ffe26a8eabec7045dc5a904497737623\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"501\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p>\n<p>Despite trading at the highest EV / Sales ratio of the FAANG stocks, Facebook is trading at the lowest TTM normalized PE Ratio amongst its peers, with the inclusion of Microsoft (FANGMA). This is likely due to the market failing to internalize and appreciate the company’s high NPM and profitability. Currently trading at a P/E ratio of 29.14, this is also below its historical means of as high as 60+ in 2016.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/247661f12f62820f6266763f49531355\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"417\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p>\n<p>However, given that earnings have improved dramatically since and likely won’t be revisiting those levels as seen from the forward estimates, we will stick with what we believe to be a fair multiple for the stickiest company in the world, 30. At a P/E ratio of 30, that would put the end 2023 share price somewhere near levels of US$531.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ce908799f1bf9091b49b94e03db7e476\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"284\"><span>(Source:Seeking Alpha)</span></p>\n<p>However, because of a surprisingly good earnings-beat track record once again, this has to be factored in moving forward. Of the last 3 years, Facebook has beat earnings 11/12 times. The average beat comes in at 15.72%. If we were to stick to a similar but more conservative beat of say 7%, that would put 2023 normalized earnings at 18.93. The exact same P/E ratio would now warrant a realistic share price of US$567.8, an upside of 66.3%.</p>\n<p>With all 4 estimates using different methods and assumptions with different levels of conservatism employed delivering a potential share price anywhere between US$531 and US$568, it would be fair to conclude that this is a realistic price target for the cashflow king 3 years out into the future. At the low end of estimates of US$531, this is still indicative of a 55% upside.</p>\n<p><b>Investor Takeaways</b></p>\n<p>To conclude, we believe Facebook has a very strong future ahead and the projected numbers for both the Topline and Bottom line are indicative of potential upside. We place significant emphasis on forward estimates as markets are future discounting mechanisms that react accordingly. The company enjoys unbelievably high margins, has a pristine balance sheet with absolutely no debt, and is anticipated to keep raking in high revenues with strong cashflow numbers.</p>\n<p>With so many growth opportunities such as the monetization ofWhatsApp, AR/VR, shops, marketplace growth, DIEM, and the continued growth in its legacy advertisement business both in terms of MAP and ARPUs, Facebook is here to stay and is nowhere near exhausting its full potential. The sizeable TAMs in each of the different business segments combined with other opportunities such as Facebook Reels which we did not cover, and the fact that it has yet to have been monetized, all point to a bright future.</p>\n<p>That being said, it is a given that the company will face many other bumps along moving forward. Facebook will continue to be subjected to what we call ‘headline risks’ whereby the stock will be overly sold off to the downside based upon nothing fundamental but one-sided exaggerated narratives. This we believe presents the best time to pick up shares and accumulate for the long run. Facebook has been perceived to have engaged in a lot of dubious unethical behaviour surrounding user data but like we said, that is separate from the investment opportunity the company presents and we will leave that to you to decide. Granted that there are many reasons surrounding the company's beat-down reputation, the return on invested capital is a different story and the main one to be focused on when considering if a company is a good investment or not.</p>\n<p>End day, when it comes to blue-chip stocks that have a firm hold in the industry, good sticky products, and solid financials, it is hard for the stock not to trend up overtime so long as estimates paint a bright picture and most importantly, the markets continue to value them in the same rational way. This has not always been the case and can be easily seen from Microsoft’s outperformance hiatus when the Dot Com bubble crashed, and the stock took 17 years to put in a new high. Still, we believe blue chip stocks are a good bet as of now and should be a part of everyone’s portfolio, and Facebook presents the best buy of the FAANG from our perspective. Till next time!</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Facebook: Simply Unstoppable</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nFacebook: Simply Unstoppable\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-06-29 16:46 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4437000-facebook-simply-unstoppable><strong>seekingalpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Summary\n\nThe #StopHateforProfit Campaign, antitrust allegations, Apple IDFA issue, and a host of other historical issues have not stopped the social media giant and will not stop it.\nDespite an ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4437000-facebook-simply-unstoppable\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4437000-facebook-simply-unstoppable","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1100563900","content_text":"Summary\n\nThe #StopHateforProfit Campaign, antitrust allegations, Apple IDFA issue, and a host of other historical issues have not stopped the social media giant and will not stop it.\nDespite an impressive rally delivering 65% since the start of CY20 and 26% YTD, Facebook remains undervalued relative to its peers and the FAANG stocks with the best forward estimates.\nThe strong moat originating from their sheer user base, and sizeable TAMs in E-commerce, VR/AR, digital assets (DIEM), cumulatively make for a compelling growth story.\nAlthough the company is highly controversial and rightfully so, this article focuses more on the quantitative analysis and less on the morals and ethics behind this investment. That, we shall leave to you.\n\nnemke/E+ via Getty Images\nInvestment Thesis\nFacebook (FB) has had a volatile trading period the past few years with a general uptrend, delivering shareholders nice returns whilst subjecting them to a few major dips which presented investors an opportunity for a steal. Despite the controversy and headline risks every now and then, the company has been able to battle through them and emerge ever so stronger. The company’s financials have been holding up and shows no sign of stoppage anytime soon. In a time as such, with significant uncertainty in the macro environment and inflation fears creeping up, we believe that shifting some of your assets to high cashflow generating companies is a wise strategy that will pay off. Growth and value are 2 different things, and there still exists growth companies that are undervalued and can still generate substantial cashflow, and we believe Facebook is one of them. The company also remains to be one of the more attractive blue-chip stocks compared to the others in the FAANG. We employ a 3–5-year outlook and have been bullish since USD$200/share. Let’s Begin!\nWhat is Facebook\nKnown to all, Facebook is a social media giant with a family of products including the likes of Facebook, Instagram,WhatsApp, Messenger, and now Oculus. The firm essentially has a stronghold in the social media industry and has an impressive DAP of2.72 BN as of Q1’21and MAP of 3.45 BN.\n(Source:FB Q1’21 Presentation)\nThe world has7.874 BNpeople as of the time of this writing and that would mean that 43.8% of all the people in the world use some form of product from Facebook’s portfolio in the past 30 days. On a daily basis, 34.5% of the people in the world use it. If that isn’t a sticky service, nothing really is. If we were to focus on the usage of the Facebook app solely, 23.8% of the world logs into the app daily based on DAUs.\nThe firm was founded in 2004 and generates the majority of their revenue from advertisements. If you have watched the social dilemma on Netflix, you would realize that Facebook’s real customer isn’t everyday users. Instead, users are the product, and they are being sold to advertisers. The company has created such an engaging and sticky service that users are more than happy to be using their apps, despite knowing that their data is being sold from one company to another. As appalling as it is, they’re indifferent to it all and still find the value in using the company’s products on a daily basis – keeping in touch with distant relatives, chatting with friends, staying up to date with the latest fashion trends and news… (According to the Pew Research Center, more than a 1/3 of US adults say they get their news regularly from Facebook)\n(Source:Pew Research Center)\nTo Facebook, this is equally as good as the more users, the wider the ‘product’ base that they have to offer their customers - advertisers. Advertisers are also indifferent to how Facebook attains its data, so long as Facebook’s targeting metrics and trackers are working well, the more likely it is that they are able to generate conversions. The more conversions, the more sales for them, the more ads they continue to pay for, the more revenue Facebook generates. Win-Win-Win, their apps are the bait, and the product (users), customers (advertisers), and supplier (Facebook), all walk away winners. It’s a remarkable business model that has stood the test of time and no matter the amount of controversy around the business, founders, and its practices, it isn’t going anywhere anytime soon and for one simple reason: Users likely can’t do without Facebook’s products whether they are willing to admit it or not.\nWhen we look back in the past to reflect on how the #StopHateForProfit Campaign turned out for the company, it is apparent that the impact it had on the top and bottom line were both minimal. The boycott was one that arose due to Facebook’s bad hate speech regulations and policing, and because of the laissez-faire attitude toward posts from then President, Donald Trump. More than 1000 companies publicly committed to boycotting the social media giant in June/July (coinciding with end Q2 and start Q3) and many of the top 100 advertisers based on ad spend such as Nike, Adidas, Puma, Coca-Cola, all revised their budgets downwards.\nDespite this, Facebook beat on Q2 earnings and saw an increase of 10.7% YOY. In its forward guidance, the company also announced that for July, they were anticipating a slowdown in YoY growth of 17% but was still due to see a 10% increase. They alsoanticipatedthe slowdown in growth to last through till October. However, the company did not attribute this slowdown to the boycott specifically but to 3 other major headwinds. With the benefit of hindsight, we can now see that even for Q3’20, the firm saw an impressive 21.6% rise in its top line, with the bottom line still registering a 12.2% improvement in NPM for Q2’20 YoY and a 200 bps NPM improvement in Q3.\nThe results are clear and indicative of a few things. The boycott by the largest companies did little to Facebook’s financial story as they still managed to register growth and did not see significant pullbacks that were material. This can be tied to the fact that most of Facebook’s advertisers are SMBs. Although certain few SMBs did join the boycott, most didn’t, and the firm still had their impressive 9 million + customer base to rely on. If anything, this also suggests that despite what any SMB stands for and whether they agree with a social cause or not, it is hard for them to find alternatives that they can shift to on a similar pricing scale. Big brands can easily pivot to other advertisements such as TV and radio commercials but SMBs simply can’t because of smaller budgets. Lastly, it is now clear that the campaign affected Facebook’s reputation more so than it did its cashflow.\nRisks\nOther risks that the company may face would be future antitrust lawsuits. As it is, the company is already facing allegations of being a monopoly based on their aggressive acquisitive history having acquired more than90 other companiessince inception. They were alsofined US$5 BNby the FTC in 2019 and were required to adopt their policies and employ new protections for the users and their data that has been shared.\n(Source: TIKR.com)\nThough representative of a historic penalty and the largest ever imposed on a company for violating user’s privacy rights, the US$5BN was a drop in the bucket for the giant that went on to generate US$70+ BN dollars for the year.\nThe current issues that they have with Apple’s new iOS changes and the IDFA implications are also likely not going to have a substantial impact on the firm. The Identifier for Advertisers [IDFA] is a random device identifier assigned by Apple to a user's device. Advertisers use this to track data so they can deliver customized advertising on mobile. With the new iOS changes, Apple essentially programmed it such that each app that wants to use these identifiers will have to ask users to opt in for tracking when the app is first launched. If users opt out, the app can’t track certain data and Facebook will have a smaller database of points to rely upon. As consumer preferences change, so will Facebook’s targeting that relies on IDFAs get worse and less effective due to outdated data points.\nAccording to aCNBC article:\n\n Most critically at stake for Facebook is what’s known as view-through conversions. This metric is used by ad-tech companies to measure how many users saw an ad, did not immediately click on it, but later made a purchase related to that ad.”\n\nWhen the conversion is made later on, the data IDFA for that particular user is then shared by the retailer to Facebook which is then used by the company to see if it matches the IDFA of the user who saw the ad. If they pair, it indicates that the ad was useful in generating a conversion. This data performance is then relayed to advertisers so that they can tweak their ad strategies accordingly. Withas much as 96% of usersanticipated to opt out of tracking on all apps, this would mean that mobile ads on 3rdparty apps may no longer be as useful if Facebook cannot really judge its effectiveness anymore. The more ineffective the ads become, the less conversions for retailers, and the more they pivot to other advertising platforms, which will impact the revenues for the firm.\nHowever, Facebook has disclosed that this will particularly only affect one form of advertisement which relies heavily on the IDFA, known as Audience Networks. Fortunately, the audience network segment only represents less than 10% of the firm’s total revenues. With the impact estimating to cost a drop in50% of all ads deliveredand hence sales from this segment, this would atbest represent a 5% drop in their total revenues. With that said, we do not anticipate that this will be present significant impact moving forward and the firm can easily recoup the 5% loss at worse by focusing on increasing ARPUs and user engagement to save their core business.\nThough Facebook started by disclosing that they anticipated the impact on their revenues to be large at first, this no longer seems to be the case. If anything, history has shown us that Mark is not one to back down and if he doesn’t get his way, he damn well will find another way to minimise loss and increase revenue generation in other segments to make up for it. If you aren’t too involved in the technicalities, we think it’s safe to bet on the jockey in this case. Besides, AR / VR growth,WhatsApp monetization, Reels monetization, further user growth in less developed countries away from the legacy North America and Europe region can very well pick up the lost (US$5BN) in sales.\nMoat\nAs mentioned above, the DAUs and MAUs for Facebook are very impressive with a large portion of the world using at least 1 of their products. The moat for the business relies on the wide user base that Facebook has meticulously built over the course of 17 years. With any new product that they have, the firm can easily roll it out to their database of users and expect demand to pick up in a matter of weeks, maybe even days. That is the power of the network of Facebook that really can’t be valued.\n(Source: FB Q1’21 Presentation)\nDespite the controversy, endless allegations, and negative headlines one after the other, the numbers don’t lie. DAUs have been increasing every single quarter, with the fastest growth observed in Asia-Pacific and the rest of the world. US & Canada growth has slowed as it nears saturation levels, and this is perfectly normal and to be expected. The way we anticipate Facebook to grow their core cash cow business moving forward is clean. 1) Focus on growing ARPUs in their saturated legacy areas (US & Canada and Europe) as well as 2) Increase User Growth by Geography in their growth areas (Asia-Pacific and the Rest of the World). Unsurprisingly, Facebook has been focused on doing just that.\n(Source: FB Q1’21 Presentation)\nWhen we look to the infamous metric for judging social media companies and their performance – ARPUs, we can see that in the legacy areas, ARPUs have been increasing at a faster pace than compared to growth areas. This falls in line with point number 1 as mentioned above. The legacy areas have already reached saturation levels and user growth is unable to grow at astounding rates anymore. However, since this represent areas that are more developed and generally have higher disposable incomes on the average, focusing on increasing ARPUs and monetizing advertisers is the right strategy and a very feasible one. Though the growth areas are also seeing ARPUs grow YoY as they should, they are not at the same pace as in the US & Canada and Europe. When we look to revenue generated by geography below, this confirms the thesis that revenue is growing faster than user base in those areas, and since ARPU equal to (Total Revenue from that Geography / Number of Users in that area), so long revenue is growing at a faster pace than the user base, they should increase meaningfully.\n(Source: FB Q1’21 Presentation)\nWhen we look to the slide below, it is also apparent that user numbers are growing much faster in Asia-Pacific and the rest of the world, away from the legacy areas. Across 2 years, MAUs which is the broadest business performance metric employed by Facebook, grew 22.4% and 25.4% in the growth areas while they only grew a mere 6.6% in US & Canada and 10.2% in Europe.\n(Source: FB Q1’21 Presentation)\nIf Facebook can continue to grow their user engagement numbers in the growth areas whilst maximizing ARPUs in legacy areas, the company can easily ensure that the core advertising model will remain the cash cow of the business, funding growth for their other product developments.\nGrowth Tactics\nWhen we look to potential growth Facebook has, the company isn’t short of any. Facebook has moved to monetizeWhatsApp, where they plan to generate fees from payments made within the app itself as well as through in-app status advertisements. The company is essentially trying to integrate the growth and TAM of the E-commerce market more seamlessly into their family of products including the likes ofWhatsApp. ThroughFacebook Pay, users can now engage in peer-to-peer payments withinWhatsApp itself at no cost. However, when businesses receive a fee from customers through the app itself, they will then have to pay a small ‘processing fee’ to Facebook and this is where it profits. This is the same method that is being employed by Shopify and all the other payment processing channels just that it is now being done locally inWhatsApp itself.WhatsApp payments has launched in Brazil, the 2nd largest market by users and the fee stands at 3.99%.\n(Source:Facebook Newsroom)\nThe firm has also been trying to grow their presence in the E-commerce market and reduce the friction customers experience when clicking through ads on its platforms. Both Instagram checkout and Facebook shops are aimed at doing just that. Their shops solutions are also expanding toWhatsApp, and the marketplace as observed above. The company sees a major shift to online shopping even after the grand reopening of the economies. As part of its effort over the years, they now have 1.2M active shops across their platforms and more than 300M monthly shop visitors. Thelatest releasestates that:\n\n Soon, we’ll give businesses in select countries the option to showcase their Shop inWhatsApp. In the US, we’ll enable them to bring Shops products into Marketplace, helping them reach the more than 1 billion people globally who visit each month.\n\n(Source:Facebook Newsroom)\nWhat’s even more fascinating is the fact that Facebook now plans to integrate new technologies such as AR Dynamic Ads to power the future of shopping. New visual discovery tools on their platforms like Instagram will help customers find new products that they resonate with faster than ever before and help them to visualize their products with AR experiences that they have been working on for a long time now.\nTheir continued expansion in the AR/VR market along with the rollout of DIEM, their native digital currency functioning as a stablecoin that was once under the “Libra Project” also presents good growth opportunity in the near future. Facebook is also looking to introducepodcasts and live audio streamsas part of the beginning of their audio journey. In short, Facebook still has a lot of room to grow moving forward apart from looking to squeeze out more cash from their legacy advertising business model. However, as always, product development is one thing, but the financials do need to shape up as well and with Facebook it does.\nFinancials\nOf the FAANG stock group, Facebook enjoys one of the highest margins. The company saw 80.55% in GM in Q1’21 and even in the past, it has enjoyed such high margins, trading between 80.5% to as high as 86.6% in FY17. The chart below also clearly indicates that the remarkable margins trickle down to the bottom line and aren’t wiped out due to operating expenses, registering a NPM of 35.7%.\nData by YCharts\nFB also routinely spends a large portion of their revenues on R&D, reinvesting into the business YoY to further improve their products and innovate on new ones. In 2020 the R&D expense represented 21.5% of total sales.\n(Source: TIKR.com)\nA large chunk of the firms’ revenues is also retained on the balance sheet which is then used over the years to funnel money to continue their acquisitive culture. Despite this, the strong cashflow that the firm enjoys allows it to stay at the top of their industry in terms of innovation whilst ensuring that their treasure trove of cash is growing should there be a need to deploy it. When we look to liquid cash that the firm holds (Cash & Equivalents, and STI), Facebook has grown it at a tremendous CAGR of 26.2%. Net Debt has also just been becoming less of a concern over the years. To date, even after the pandemic, Facebook has no debt.\n(Source: TIKR.com)\nGiven the data above, it is evident that the firm has one of the most pristine balance sheets in the industry and in the whole stock market. The US$62 BN that they hold as cash presents itself as a massive buffer to cushion the impact of whatever comes their way, be it another acquisitive opportunity, or yet another fine. Either way, the company can weather any financial storm and near balance sheet issues aren’t a problem. Shareholders aren’t too pleased with the cash pile just sitting there and would instead rather the firm start paying a dividend or pick up the pace in share buybacks to maximize investor returns. Facebook has never paid a dividend in its entirety and although they may consider that moving forward, we anticipate that it is not a move that they will commit to. In any case, we ourselves hope that they commit to more share buybacks instead of moving to issue a dividend.\n(Source:Q1 10-K Filing SEC)\nIn their 10-K filing, the company expanded their SRP program to include an additional US$25 BN which will be added atop the US$8.6 BN remaining from a 2017 authorization. That amounts to a current authorized SRP valued at around US$33.6 BN and we anticipate that this may further increase substantially moving forward. Despite outstanding shares reducing overtime, a large part is offset by additional equity issued as part of SBC to employees. It is disappointing that the firm isn’t making more of a definitive move to put that cash pile to use but this is nonetheless not a major red flag.\nValuations\nBeing a blue-chip company with strong FCF, we would normally value the social media giant with a DCF model. Today, however, we will be looking at EV/Sales and P/E Ratios to try and justify its future valuation, looking 3 years out as always to end 2023.\n(Source:Seeking Alpha)\nLooking 3 years out to end 23, Facebook is projected to grow revenues at an average of 23.4%, with growth in the 30s for this fiscal year. That would mean that Facebook is anticipated to grow revenues to US$160.8 BN by end 2023, up 87% from what they delivered in FY20 in 3 years.\n(Source: TIKR.com)\nSince 2018, the firm has traded at an average EV/Sales of 8.85, and last exchanged hands at a multiple of 9.76. Although the firm is trading at a multiple above its mean and higher than any of the other stocks as part of the FAANG group, Facebook does have higher estimates than all the other companies in the near future as observed below. The data does not reflect estimates for 2023.\n(Source: TIKR.com)\nMoreover, when we look further into the past all the way back to 2013, the company has historically traded at an average of 12.82 and even registered a high close to 22 in 2014. However, since we want to be conservative, but believe that the market has yet to really price Facebook for what it’s worth given all the headline risks in the media that have induced immediate selloffs without any fundamental reason, we will employ a multiple of 9.\n(Source: TIKR.com)\nAt an EV/Sales multiple of 9, that would put Facebook at a US$1.447 TRN dollar valuation by the end of 2023 and a share price of US$539, an upside of 58%.\n(Source:Seeking Alpha)\nWhen we look to revenue surprise and analyst estimate beat / miss trends, Facebook has quite the historical track record of surpassing estimates, having done so 10/12 times in the past 3 years. The average upside surprise stands at 3.59%. Assuming Facebook will continue to deliver the same upside surprise moving forward, a 3.59% beat to the top line estimate of 2023 would warrant revenues of US$166.57 BN. At the same EV/Sales ratio of 9, that would render a higher valuation of US$558.77 USD. Given that Facebook is very close to crossing the US$1 TRN dollar valuation mark, we anticipate this to be a very realistic price target.\nNow shifting on to another valuation method by P/E multiples, the valuation also paints a similar picture.\n(Source:Seeking Alpha)\nTurning to earnings estimates, the company is also projected to do high-teens digit growth for 2022 and 2023 and a close to 30% growth in the bottom line for this fiscal year.\nData by YCharts\nDespite trading at the highest EV / Sales ratio of the FAANG stocks, Facebook is trading at the lowest TTM normalized PE Ratio amongst its peers, with the inclusion of Microsoft (FANGMA). This is likely due to the market failing to internalize and appreciate the company’s high NPM and profitability. Currently trading at a P/E ratio of 29.14, this is also below its historical means of as high as 60+ in 2016.\nData by YCharts\nHowever, given that earnings have improved dramatically since and likely won’t be revisiting those levels as seen from the forward estimates, we will stick with what we believe to be a fair multiple for the stickiest company in the world, 30. At a P/E ratio of 30, that would put the end 2023 share price somewhere near levels of US$531.\n(Source:Seeking Alpha)\nHowever, because of a surprisingly good earnings-beat track record once again, this has to be factored in moving forward. Of the last 3 years, Facebook has beat earnings 11/12 times. The average beat comes in at 15.72%. If we were to stick to a similar but more conservative beat of say 7%, that would put 2023 normalized earnings at 18.93. The exact same P/E ratio would now warrant a realistic share price of US$567.8, an upside of 66.3%.\nWith all 4 estimates using different methods and assumptions with different levels of conservatism employed delivering a potential share price anywhere between US$531 and US$568, it would be fair to conclude that this is a realistic price target for the cashflow king 3 years out into the future. At the low end of estimates of US$531, this is still indicative of a 55% upside.\nInvestor Takeaways\nTo conclude, we believe Facebook has a very strong future ahead and the projected numbers for both the Topline and Bottom line are indicative of potential upside. We place significant emphasis on forward estimates as markets are future discounting mechanisms that react accordingly. The company enjoys unbelievably high margins, has a pristine balance sheet with absolutely no debt, and is anticipated to keep raking in high revenues with strong cashflow numbers.\nWith so many growth opportunities such as the monetization ofWhatsApp, AR/VR, shops, marketplace growth, DIEM, and the continued growth in its legacy advertisement business both in terms of MAP and ARPUs, Facebook is here to stay and is nowhere near exhausting its full potential. The sizeable TAMs in each of the different business segments combined with other opportunities such as Facebook Reels which we did not cover, and the fact that it has yet to have been monetized, all point to a bright future.\nThat being said, it is a given that the company will face many other bumps along moving forward. Facebook will continue to be subjected to what we call ‘headline risks’ whereby the stock will be overly sold off to the downside based upon nothing fundamental but one-sided exaggerated narratives. This we believe presents the best time to pick up shares and accumulate for the long run. Facebook has been perceived to have engaged in a lot of dubious unethical behaviour surrounding user data but like we said, that is separate from the investment opportunity the company presents and we will leave that to you to decide. Granted that there are many reasons surrounding the company's beat-down reputation, the return on invested capital is a different story and the main one to be focused on when considering if a company is a good investment or not.\nEnd day, when it comes to blue-chip stocks that have a firm hold in the industry, good sticky products, and solid financials, it is hard for the stock not to trend up overtime so long as estimates paint a bright picture and most importantly, the markets continue to value them in the same rational way. This has not always been the case and can be easily seen from Microsoft’s outperformance hiatus when the Dot Com bubble crashed, and the stock took 17 years to put in a new high. Still, we believe blue chip stocks are a good bet as of now and should be a part of everyone’s portfolio, and Facebook presents the best buy of the FAANG from our perspective. Till next time!","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":409,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":183684252,"gmtCreate":1623328745176,"gmtModify":1634034545385,"author":{"id":"3585096019201823","authorId":"3585096019201823","name":"ppangsy","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/20471738d34ed6efdb59281b8fc3b6c8","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3585096019201823","authorIdStr":"3585096019201823"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Wont overheat? Theyre just kidding themselves","listText":"Wont overheat? Theyre just kidding themselves","text":"Wont overheat? Theyre just kidding themselves","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/183684252","repostId":"1127298356","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1127298356","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1623310533,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1127298356?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-10 15:35","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Goldman Explains Why The Economy Won't Overheat, No Matter What Today's CPI Shows","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1127298356","media":"zerohedge","summary":"Yields on 10-year Treasuries dipped below 1.50% today for the first time since early March amid a fu","content":"<p>Yields on 10-year Treasuries dipped below 1.50% today for the first time since early March amid a furious shortsqueeze discussed earlier...</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e87da5d75100fe75f0be86933791246f\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"422\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">... and as post-pandemic inflation concerns appear to be waning as quickly as they flared up.</p>\n<p>This is a point we first brought up last month when observing the collapse in China's credit impulse, arguably the most important variable for the entire global reflationary narrative (see \"China's Credit Impulse Just Turned Negative, Unleashing Global Deflationary Shockwave\")...</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cfc3b4fc471bcf50ee51b9be637a3ed4\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"294\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">... and it's a point that Goldman's chief economist Jan Hatzius reiterated in a note published on Tuesday titled simply \"Why the Economy Won’t Overheat,” in which he argues - the same as the Fed - that the inflation we are seeing so far is likely to be temporary and prices will normalize again as we leg further away from unprecedented pandemic activity curtailments.</p>\n<p>While we disagree - and so does Deutsche Bank,which sees nothing short of Weimar hyperinflationbeing unleashed by the Fed soon, something we first predicted in March 2009 as the ultimate endgame -&nbsp; it is interesting that today, at least, markets appear to be adopting this view judging by the collapse in 10Y nominal rates and the recent breach of the upward trendline in breakevens...</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ef6de63c2434121178b1a7b351df6ee9\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"308\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">... this even as China's PPI printed at a Lehman Sept 2008 high of 9.0% overnight.</p>\n<p>So what, according to Goldman is the reason for receding inflation fears? As Hatzius and strategist Chris Hussey explain, the past 2 payrolls reports have been underwhelming as the rush back to work \"is being slowed by generous stimulus as well as an inability — perhaps — to simply process so many new workers. On the one hand, fewer available workers should push up wages as companies compete to attract new workers. But a more orderly stream of employment in the post-pandemic recovery may also allow for a more extended reopening period and perhaps a bit less top-line pressure on prices.\"</p>\n<p>Another reason for receding inflation fears may also simply be time. According to Goldman, as Americans become more accustomed to getting back to their daily routines, the strangeness of such activity recedes. And it is perhaps easier for investors to envision what‘normal’ will look like.&nbsp; And perhaps that vision is collectively coalescing around a‘new normal’ that looks surprisingly similiar to the pre-pandemic ‘old normal’.</p>\n<p>Hatzius then elaborates why the recent inflation pickup will remain transitory: \"On the wage side,<b>labor supply should increase dramatically over the next 3-6 months as fear of the virus diminishes further and the $300/week benefit top-up expires—over the next few weeks in most Republican-controlled states and on September 6 in the remaining states.\"</b></p>\n<p>In other words, employers will likely hold out another 3 months until the end of emergency benefits expire at which point they expect a flood of workers to reverse the calculus in the labor market,<b>from one of no labor supply to a flood of supply.</b></p>\n<p>On the price side, Goldman's trimmed core PCE—which excludes the 30% most extreme month-to-month price changes, and as a reminder the surge in inflation last month was largely driven by soaring used car prices and transportation services, or as Goldman puts it \"outliers\" — remains at just 1.56% year-on-year, half the standard core PCE rate.&nbsp; This gap illustrates the unprecedented role of outliers in the recent inflation pickup.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3eaf58fed43ba69dc0224a4d192f457b\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"307\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Ultimately, to Goldman, the biggest question in the overheating debate remains whether US output and employment will rise sharply above potential in the next few years. If the answer is yes, then inflation could indeed climb to undesirable levels on a more permanent basis. Predictably, Goldman's answer continues to be no, and here's why: \"Even though real GDP is nearly back to the pre-pandemic level, we still see significant slack in the economy based on the remaining jobs shortfall of nearly 8 million and the pandemic-driven productivity gain of 4.1% year-on-year in Q1. Moreover, we think sequential GDP growth has probably already peaked in monthly terms and will trend down from here as the fiscal impulse wanes, modestly at first and then more sharply in late 2021 and 2022.\"</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5bbda3c1cc274419a5ecdfeea29dd30b\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"324\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Here JPMorgan also chimes in and in a recent note from economist Dan Silver writes that as we prepare for the CPI print, it is worthwhile to consider the impacts of the removal of federal unemployment benefits and increasing hourly wages. In Silver's note, he illustrates the growth in job openings among low-income jobs.</p>\n<p>JPM then asks the right question: \"<b>will wage increases remain durable if business owners know that supply is coming back online?\"</b>A question we have asked previously, and the answer is a decisive not. To JPM, if the answer is indeed no, \"we see a quicker than expected deceleration in wage growth, spending, and CPI.\" Although, alternatively, it seems more likely that we will also see a surge in jobs taken and potentially another leg higher in absolute macro data.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dd33a3897ee720aefc640dc061344a18\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"332\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">With that in mind, what's next on the inflation catalyst front and what will today's critical CPI print show?&nbsp; Here, Goldman estimates a 0.50% increase in May core CPI (in line with consensus), which will boost the year-on-year rate by six tenths to 3.55%, up from 3.0% which however is largely impacted by the base effect collapse of last year. Goldman's monthly core inflation forecast<b>\"reflects reopening-driven strength in airfares, hotel prices, and recreation prices.\"</b>Additionally, Goldman expects strong monthly readings in used cars (+6%) and new cars (+0.5%), reflecting \"one-time\" supply chain disruptions and microchip shortages.</p>\n<p>And while the Fed is more concerned with PCE inflation rather than CPI, Goldman concludes that even though the inflation burst is transitory, \"<b>it will be interesting to see how markets react to a 3.5%+ inflation report in a monetary regime that presumably is focused on keeping inflation around 2%.\"</b></p>\n<p></p>\n<p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Goldman Explains Why The Economy Won't Overheat, No Matter What Today's CPI Shows</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; 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}\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nGoldman Explains Why The Economy Won't Overheat, No Matter What Today's CPI Shows\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-06-10 15:35 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/goldman-explains-why-economy-wont-overheat-no-matter-what-tomorrows-cpi-shows?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+zerohedge%2Ffeed+%28zero+hedge+-+on+a+long+enough+timeline%2C+the+survival+rate+for+everyone+drops+to+zero%29><strong>zerohedge</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Yields on 10-year Treasuries dipped below 1.50% today for the first time since early March amid a furious shortsqueeze discussed earlier...\n... and as post-pandemic inflation concerns appear to be ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/goldman-explains-why-economy-wont-overheat-no-matter-what-tomorrows-cpi-shows?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+zerohedge%2Ffeed+%28zero+hedge+-+on+a+long+enough+timeline%2C+the+survival+rate+for+everyone+drops+to+zero%29\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","SPY":"标普500ETF"},"source_url":"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/goldman-explains-why-economy-wont-overheat-no-matter-what-tomorrows-cpi-shows?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+zerohedge%2Ffeed+%28zero+hedge+-+on+a+long+enough+timeline%2C+the+survival+rate+for+everyone+drops+to+zero%29","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1127298356","content_text":"Yields on 10-year Treasuries dipped below 1.50% today for the first time since early March amid a furious shortsqueeze discussed earlier...\n... and as post-pandemic inflation concerns appear to be waning as quickly as they flared up.\nThis is a point we first brought up last month when observing the collapse in China's credit impulse, arguably the most important variable for the entire global reflationary narrative (see \"China's Credit Impulse Just Turned Negative, Unleashing Global Deflationary Shockwave\")...\n... and it's a point that Goldman's chief economist Jan Hatzius reiterated in a note published on Tuesday titled simply \"Why the Economy Won’t Overheat,” in which he argues - the same as the Fed - that the inflation we are seeing so far is likely to be temporary and prices will normalize again as we leg further away from unprecedented pandemic activity curtailments.\nWhile we disagree - and so does Deutsche Bank,which sees nothing short of Weimar hyperinflationbeing unleashed by the Fed soon, something we first predicted in March 2009 as the ultimate endgame -  it is interesting that today, at least, markets appear to be adopting this view judging by the collapse in 10Y nominal rates and the recent breach of the upward trendline in breakevens...\n... this even as China's PPI printed at a Lehman Sept 2008 high of 9.0% overnight.\nSo what, according to Goldman is the reason for receding inflation fears? As Hatzius and strategist Chris Hussey explain, the past 2 payrolls reports have been underwhelming as the rush back to work \"is being slowed by generous stimulus as well as an inability — perhaps — to simply process so many new workers. On the one hand, fewer available workers should push up wages as companies compete to attract new workers. But a more orderly stream of employment in the post-pandemic recovery may also allow for a more extended reopening period and perhaps a bit less top-line pressure on prices.\"\nAnother reason for receding inflation fears may also simply be time. According to Goldman, as Americans become more accustomed to getting back to their daily routines, the strangeness of such activity recedes. And it is perhaps easier for investors to envision what‘normal’ will look like.  And perhaps that vision is collectively coalescing around a‘new normal’ that looks surprisingly similiar to the pre-pandemic ‘old normal’.\nHatzius then elaborates why the recent inflation pickup will remain transitory: \"On the wage side,labor supply should increase dramatically over the next 3-6 months as fear of the virus diminishes further and the $300/week benefit top-up expires—over the next few weeks in most Republican-controlled states and on September 6 in the remaining states.\"\nIn other words, employers will likely hold out another 3 months until the end of emergency benefits expire at which point they expect a flood of workers to reverse the calculus in the labor market,from one of no labor supply to a flood of supply.\nOn the price side, Goldman's trimmed core PCE—which excludes the 30% most extreme month-to-month price changes, and as a reminder the surge in inflation last month was largely driven by soaring used car prices and transportation services, or as Goldman puts it \"outliers\" — remains at just 1.56% year-on-year, half the standard core PCE rate.  This gap illustrates the unprecedented role of outliers in the recent inflation pickup.\nUltimately, to Goldman, the biggest question in the overheating debate remains whether US output and employment will rise sharply above potential in the next few years. If the answer is yes, then inflation could indeed climb to undesirable levels on a more permanent basis. Predictably, Goldman's answer continues to be no, and here's why: \"Even though real GDP is nearly back to the pre-pandemic level, we still see significant slack in the economy based on the remaining jobs shortfall of nearly 8 million and the pandemic-driven productivity gain of 4.1% year-on-year in Q1. Moreover, we think sequential GDP growth has probably already peaked in monthly terms and will trend down from here as the fiscal impulse wanes, modestly at first and then more sharply in late 2021 and 2022.\"\nHere JPMorgan also chimes in and in a recent note from economist Dan Silver writes that as we prepare for the CPI print, it is worthwhile to consider the impacts of the removal of federal unemployment benefits and increasing hourly wages. In Silver's note, he illustrates the growth in job openings among low-income jobs.\nJPM then asks the right question: \"will wage increases remain durable if business owners know that supply is coming back online?\"A question we have asked previously, and the answer is a decisive not. To JPM, if the answer is indeed no, \"we see a quicker than expected deceleration in wage growth, spending, and CPI.\" Although, alternatively, it seems more likely that we will also see a surge in jobs taken and potentially another leg higher in absolute macro data.\nWith that in mind, what's next on the inflation catalyst front and what will today's critical CPI print show?  Here, Goldman estimates a 0.50% increase in May core CPI (in line with consensus), which will boost the year-on-year rate by six tenths to 3.55%, up from 3.0% which however is largely impacted by the base effect collapse of last year. Goldman's monthly core inflation forecast\"reflects reopening-driven strength in airfares, hotel prices, and recreation prices.\"Additionally, Goldman expects strong monthly readings in used cars (+6%) and new cars (+0.5%), reflecting \"one-time\" supply chain disruptions and microchip shortages.\nAnd while the Fed is more concerned with PCE inflation rather than CPI, Goldman concludes that even though the inflation burst is transitory, \"it will be interesting to see how markets react to a 3.5%+ inflation report in a monetary regime that presumably is focused on keeping inflation around 2%.\"","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":371,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":144001845,"gmtCreate":1626250638187,"gmtModify":1631890663413,"author":{"id":"3585096019201823","authorId":"3585096019201823","name":"ppangsy","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/20471738d34ed6efdb59281b8fc3b6c8","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3585096019201823","authorIdStr":"3585096019201823"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"The wave just isnt&nbsp;stopping","listText":"The wave just isnt&nbsp;stopping","text":"The wave just isnt stopping","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/144001845","repostId":"1158281742","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1158281742","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Providing stock market headlines, business news, financials and earnings ","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Tiger Newspress","id":"1079075236","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1626249848,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1158281742?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-07-14 16:04","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Apple shares rises nearly 1% in premarket trading.","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1158281742","media":"Tiger Newspress","summary":"Apple shares rises nearly 1% in premarket trading.\nApple Inc. has asked suppliers to build as many a","content":"<p>Apple&nbsp;shares rises nearly&nbsp;1% in premarket&nbsp;trading.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/35d519e7b8520bdf005ef08215187349\" tg-width=\"1290\" tg-height=\"619\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Apple Inc. has asked suppliers to build as many as 90 million next-generation iPhones this year, a sharp increase from its 2020 iPhone shipments, according to people with knowledge of the matter.</p>\n<p>The Cupertino, California-based tech giant has maintained a consistent level in recent years of roughly 75 million units for the initial run from a device’s launch through the end of the year. The upgraded forecast for 2021 would suggest the company anticipates its first iPhone launch since the rollout of Covid-19 vaccines will unlock additional demand. The next iPhones will be Apple’s second with 5G, a key enticement pushing users to upgrade.</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Apple shares rises nearly 1% in premarket trading.</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nApple shares rises nearly 1% in premarket trading.\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1079075236\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Tiger Newspress </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2021-07-14 16:04</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Apple&nbsp;shares rises nearly&nbsp;1% in premarket&nbsp;trading.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/35d519e7b8520bdf005ef08215187349\" tg-width=\"1290\" tg-height=\"619\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Apple Inc. has asked suppliers to build as many as 90 million next-generation iPhones this year, a sharp increase from its 2020 iPhone shipments, according to people with knowledge of the matter.</p>\n<p>The Cupertino, California-based tech giant has maintained a consistent level in recent years of roughly 75 million units for the initial run from a device’s launch through the end of the year. The upgraded forecast for 2021 would suggest the company anticipates its first iPhone launch since the rollout of Covid-19 vaccines will unlock additional demand. The next iPhones will be Apple’s second with 5G, a key enticement pushing users to upgrade.</p>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AAPL":"苹果"},"is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1158281742","content_text":"Apple shares rises nearly 1% in premarket trading.\nApple Inc. has asked suppliers to build as many as 90 million next-generation iPhones this year, a sharp increase from its 2020 iPhone shipments, according to people with knowledge of the matter.\nThe Cupertino, California-based tech giant has maintained a consistent level in recent years of roughly 75 million units for the initial run from a device’s launch through the end of the year. The upgraded forecast for 2021 would suggest the company anticipates its first iPhone launch since the rollout of Covid-19 vaccines will unlock additional demand. The next iPhones will be Apple’s second with 5G, a key enticement pushing users to upgrade.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":680,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":114596308,"gmtCreate":1623078489904,"gmtModify":1634037175936,"author":{"id":"3585096019201823","authorId":"3585096019201823","name":"ppangsy","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/20471738d34ed6efdb59281b8fc3b6c8","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3585096019201823","authorIdStr":"3585096019201823"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Really wonderful to have discovered Tiger Brokers. Its intuitive platform and modern interface makes trading so easy!","listText":"Really wonderful to have discovered Tiger Brokers. Its intuitive platform and modern interface makes trading so easy!","text":"Really wonderful to have discovered Tiger Brokers. Its intuitive platform and modern interface makes trading so easy!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/114596308","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":136,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":115612605,"gmtCreate":1622985110207,"gmtModify":1634096408275,"author":{"id":"3585096019201823","authorId":"3585096019201823","name":"ppangsy","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/20471738d34ed6efdb59281b8fc3b6c8","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3585096019201823","authorIdStr":"3585096019201823"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Good choices for the 7 stocks","listText":"Good choices for the 7 stocks","text":"Good choices for the 7 stocks","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/115612605","repostId":"1198437149","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":380,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":115612933,"gmtCreate":1622985077622,"gmtModify":1634096408514,"author":{"id":"3585096019201823","authorId":"3585096019201823","name":"ppangsy","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/20471738d34ed6efdb59281b8fc3b6c8","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3585096019201823","authorIdStr":"3585096019201823"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"&nbsp;I support this.","listText":"&nbsp;I support this.","text":"I support this.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/115612933","repostId":"1120164826","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1120164826","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1622951745,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1120164826?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-06 11:55","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Zillow: Significant Downside Remains","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1120164826","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Summary\n\nShares of Zillow Group have come down some 30% since my \"Take Profits\" article was publishe","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p>\n<ul>\n <li>Shares of Zillow Group have come down some 30% since my \"Take Profits\" article was published on Seeking Alpha.</li>\n <li>However, and despite a definite improvement in the latest Q1 EPS report, the stock looks to have a further downside to come.</li>\n <li>That is because margins are dismal, forward adjusted EBITDA guidance for Q2 was weak (lower than Q1), and the outstanding share count continues to grow.</li>\n <li>Yet, the stock still trades with a forward P/E of nearly 100x.</li>\n</ul>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ba2b4c631e3e6b24aaf024fb49665ea3\" tg-width=\"768\" tg-height=\"512\"><span>Photo by Sundry Photography/iStock Editorial via Getty Images</span></p>\n<p>The&nbsp;<b>Zillow Group</b>&nbsp;(ZG) has, without a doubt, established itself as the #1 online real estate website and as one-stop shop for home-buying consumers. The company's recent pivot to what I'll call the iHome business (purchasing homes directly from consumers and then selling them on the open market) has been a positive catalyst of late in terms of revenue growth, and that business blends well with ZG's Mortgage Segment and Internet, Media, and Technology Segment. However, despite the recent and significant drop in the price of the shares, ZG still seem substantially overvalued in my opinion. That is because margins are - in a word - pathetic. In addition, Q2 guidance was weak and the company plans to hire an additional 2,000 employees this year. In my opinion, that will pressure margins even further through the remainder of the year.</p>\n<p><b>Investment Rationale</b></p>\n<p>Like many Americans, Zillow has become one of my favorite websites. I am surely not alone when it comes to frequently checking Zillow.com to see what the current \"Zestimate\" is for my home as well as for the homes I have owned in the past, and those of my friends and family.</p>\n<p>Indeed, marketing share data from Statista shows that Zillow is #1 in unique monthly visits, and Trulia - which the Zillow Group bought in 2014 - is #2. In aggregate that gives the Zillow group a stranglehold on the real estate website market (at least by the unique visits metric) at more than 3x the share as compared to what was once a highly competitive race with Realtor.com for consumers' eye-balls:</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/929acb56fa1d566e5f6c3ac0d250c2c2\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"553\"><span>Source:Statista</span></p>\n<p>But of course there are other metrics to judge the popularity and use of real estate websites. Here is more recent data (April 1, 2021) from SimilarWeb.com:</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/836f372f61ccb570286e9ac3e0f3143b\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"366\"><span>Source:SimilarWeb.com</span></p>\n<p>When it comes to average visit duration, pages viewed per visit, and bounce rate (the % of consumers that only view one-page then leave the site), Zillow and Trulia again show impressive comps. That said, note there must be other metrics that figure into the SimilarWeb ratings shown above because - from these metrics alone - one could argue rightmove.co.uk has the best stats as shown. Regardless, this graphic is another indicator that the Zillow/Trulia brand is very strong and the market leader.</p>\n<p>However, eye-balls aren't enough ... the views and activity need to be converted into profits, and that is where the Zillow Group is struggling in comparison to its rather lofty valuation.</p>\n<p><b>Q1 Earnings</b></p>\n<p>Zillow released its&nbsp;Q1 EPS report&nbsp;on May 4th. It was a strong report. GAAP net-income of $0.20/share&nbsp;beat estimates by a whopping $0.13. Revenue of $1.22 billion was a $120 million beat and was up 8% yoy. The company reported strong traffic on its website and mobile apps, with 221 million average monthly users (up 15% yoy) driving 2.5 billion visits during Q1 (up 19% yoy).</p>\n<p>The most interesting segment in Q1 was the iHome (or what ZG calls \"Zillow Offers\") because it accounted for ~57% of revenue and is the segment Zillow is counting on to be is profitable growth engine.</p>\n<p>However, as can be seen in the graphic below, the margins are - so far - quite puny:</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/82e5264c5427eb9f8b1987c2182cb39a\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"311\"><span>Source: Zillow'sQ1 EPS report</span></p>\n<p>As can be seen, the all-in return (after operating costs and interest expense) on the home buying/selling (flipping might be a better word) is a scant 4.94% of the average per-home revenue. That is despite what is generally considered to be a very hot-market real estate market across the nation. In addition, note the iHome business is a threat to the company's future growth aspirations because the pivot to iHome has pretty much cratered the company's Premier Agent business. The pivot also likely means more pressure on Zillow's advertising revenue which generally comes from the agents its iHome segment is now stealing away homes from. And all that for only 4.9% margins?</p>\n<p><b>Going Forward</b></p>\n<p>The chart below is the company's guidance for Q2:</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d976a71e1e72bb8f0c6ac3306aa4f100\" tg-width=\"628\" tg-height=\"337\"><span>Source: Zillow's Q1 EPS report</span></p>\n<p>At the midpoint of guidance total adjusted EBITDA ($128 million), note that&nbsp;<b>will be down considerably</b>&nbsp;from the $181 million in total adjusted EBITDA delivered in Q1.</p>\n<p>In addition, note the weighted average share-count at the end of Q1 (it was not included in the Q1 EPS report, but can be found in the&nbsp;SEC 10-Q filing) was 259,346,000 shares (up a whopping 23% yoy). And that share-count is expected to continue growing to an estimated 265.5 million shares at the end of Q2 (based on the guidance shown above).</p>\n<p><b>Valuation</b></p>\n<p>So we have weak margins, falling adjusted EBITDA and a significantly rising number of fully diluted shares. Hmmmm.</p>\n<p>Yet, despite the recent correction in the stock (note the stock is down ~30% since my Seeking Alpha article in March&nbsp;<i>Zillow: Take Profits</i>), the stock is still trading at a lofty valuation given the analysis of Q1 and Q2 guidance just presented. The&nbsp;Seeking Alpha forward P/E=97.7x.</p>\n<p>That is obviously a rich comparison in terms of Zillow's growth prospects (or non-growth...) considering the weak Q2 guidance. In addition, it is not clear to me what the catalyst will be to improve the company's awfully small margins going forward. That is especially the case considering&nbsp;<b>Zillow plans to hire an additional 2,000 employees this year</b>, increasing its headcount by some 40%. In my opinion, this headcount growth will be a significant headwind when it comes to increasing margins. That is, Zillow is not able to demonstrate increasing margins as it tries to scale-up its operations.</p>\n<p>Meantime, the pivot to iHome also means that ZG now has significantly more macro-level risks as it will be increasingly dependent on the ups (now..) and downs (coming...) of the housing market.</p>\n<p><b>Risks</b></p>\n<p>The risk of buying Zillow Group today is - in my opinion, a priced-to-near-perfection valuation level. I say \"near perfection\" because it was priced to perfection when I wrote my \"Take Profits\" article on ZG, and since it is down 30% since that piece was published, now I will simply call ZG a \"rich valuation\" proposition.</p>\n<p>The goods news is that Zillow has a relatively strong balance sheet: it ended the quarter with $4.7 billion in cash (up from $3.9 billion at the end of 2020) after completing a $551 million stock offering during the quarter.</p>\n<p>That compares to $2.259 billion in debt, which was down slightly from year-end. As a result, the company has an estimated $9.19/share in net cash based on the 265.5 million diluted shares outstanding at the end of Q1. And Zillow will likely need to keep a fair amount of cash in order to offset its higher risk profile due to direct exposure to the housing market. That is because history shows us the US housing market can change on-a-dime and could catch ZG holding a rather large inventory of homes.</p>\n<p><b>Summary &amp; Conclusion</b></p>\n<p>While Zillow's Q1 report was certainly much improved on a sequential basis, the company's own Q2 guidance seems to be more indicative of the thesis I presented in my last article on the company. That is, the stock's valuation simply appears to be substantially out-of-whack in comparison to its demonstrated growth metrics. More shares, falling sequential adjusted EBITDA in Q2 despite a hot and highly appreciating housing market and ... well, I just cannot understand the current valuation level. As a result, I maintain the opinion from my previous article: I wouldn't be interested in ZG until it reached the ~$50/share level.</p>\n<p>I will end with a five-year price chart of ZG and note that my $50 target is roughly where the stock was prior to the pandemic. Certainly the EPS reports issues since that time do not justify the rapid and substantial increase in the shares to $200 ... or, even the current $110 level.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8f243f9f555525da2dcb1589d18cd30f\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"403\"><span>Data byYCharts</span></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Zillow: Significant Downside Remains</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nZillow: Significant Downside Remains\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-06-06 11:55 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4433217-zillow-significant-downside-remains><strong>seekingalpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Summary\n\nShares of Zillow Group have come down some 30% since my \"Take Profits\" article was published on Seeking Alpha.\nHowever, and despite a definite improvement in the latest Q1 EPS report, the ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4433217-zillow-significant-downside-remains\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"Z":"Zillow"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4433217-zillow-significant-downside-remains","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1120164826","content_text":"Summary\n\nShares of Zillow Group have come down some 30% since my \"Take Profits\" article was published on Seeking Alpha.\nHowever, and despite a definite improvement in the latest Q1 EPS report, the stock looks to have a further downside to come.\nThat is because margins are dismal, forward adjusted EBITDA guidance for Q2 was weak (lower than Q1), and the outstanding share count continues to grow.\nYet, the stock still trades with a forward P/E of nearly 100x.\n\nPhoto by Sundry Photography/iStock Editorial via Getty Images\nThe Zillow Group (ZG) has, without a doubt, established itself as the #1 online real estate website and as one-stop shop for home-buying consumers. The company's recent pivot to what I'll call the iHome business (purchasing homes directly from consumers and then selling them on the open market) has been a positive catalyst of late in terms of revenue growth, and that business blends well with ZG's Mortgage Segment and Internet, Media, and Technology Segment. However, despite the recent and significant drop in the price of the shares, ZG still seem substantially overvalued in my opinion. That is because margins are - in a word - pathetic. In addition, Q2 guidance was weak and the company plans to hire an additional 2,000 employees this year. In my opinion, that will pressure margins even further through the remainder of the year.\nInvestment Rationale\nLike many Americans, Zillow has become one of my favorite websites. I am surely not alone when it comes to frequently checking Zillow.com to see what the current \"Zestimate\" is for my home as well as for the homes I have owned in the past, and those of my friends and family.\nIndeed, marketing share data from Statista shows that Zillow is #1 in unique monthly visits, and Trulia - which the Zillow Group bought in 2014 - is #2. In aggregate that gives the Zillow group a stranglehold on the real estate website market (at least by the unique visits metric) at more than 3x the share as compared to what was once a highly competitive race with Realtor.com for consumers' eye-balls:\nSource:Statista\nBut of course there are other metrics to judge the popularity and use of real estate websites. Here is more recent data (April 1, 2021) from SimilarWeb.com:\nSource:SimilarWeb.com\nWhen it comes to average visit duration, pages viewed per visit, and bounce rate (the % of consumers that only view one-page then leave the site), Zillow and Trulia again show impressive comps. That said, note there must be other metrics that figure into the SimilarWeb ratings shown above because - from these metrics alone - one could argue rightmove.co.uk has the best stats as shown. Regardless, this graphic is another indicator that the Zillow/Trulia brand is very strong and the market leader.\nHowever, eye-balls aren't enough ... the views and activity need to be converted into profits, and that is where the Zillow Group is struggling in comparison to its rather lofty valuation.\nQ1 Earnings\nZillow released its Q1 EPS report on May 4th. It was a strong report. GAAP net-income of $0.20/share beat estimates by a whopping $0.13. Revenue of $1.22 billion was a $120 million beat and was up 8% yoy. The company reported strong traffic on its website and mobile apps, with 221 million average monthly users (up 15% yoy) driving 2.5 billion visits during Q1 (up 19% yoy).\nThe most interesting segment in Q1 was the iHome (or what ZG calls \"Zillow Offers\") because it accounted for ~57% of revenue and is the segment Zillow is counting on to be is profitable growth engine.\nHowever, as can be seen in the graphic below, the margins are - so far - quite puny:\nSource: Zillow'sQ1 EPS report\nAs can be seen, the all-in return (after operating costs and interest expense) on the home buying/selling (flipping might be a better word) is a scant 4.94% of the average per-home revenue. That is despite what is generally considered to be a very hot-market real estate market across the nation. In addition, note the iHome business is a threat to the company's future growth aspirations because the pivot to iHome has pretty much cratered the company's Premier Agent business. The pivot also likely means more pressure on Zillow's advertising revenue which generally comes from the agents its iHome segment is now stealing away homes from. And all that for only 4.9% margins?\nGoing Forward\nThe chart below is the company's guidance for Q2:\nSource: Zillow's Q1 EPS report\nAt the midpoint of guidance total adjusted EBITDA ($128 million), note that will be down considerably from the $181 million in total adjusted EBITDA delivered in Q1.\nIn addition, note the weighted average share-count at the end of Q1 (it was not included in the Q1 EPS report, but can be found in the SEC 10-Q filing) was 259,346,000 shares (up a whopping 23% yoy). And that share-count is expected to continue growing to an estimated 265.5 million shares at the end of Q2 (based on the guidance shown above).\nValuation\nSo we have weak margins, falling adjusted EBITDA and a significantly rising number of fully diluted shares. Hmmmm.\nYet, despite the recent correction in the stock (note the stock is down ~30% since my Seeking Alpha article in March Zillow: Take Profits), the stock is still trading at a lofty valuation given the analysis of Q1 and Q2 guidance just presented. The Seeking Alpha forward P/E=97.7x.\nThat is obviously a rich comparison in terms of Zillow's growth prospects (or non-growth...) considering the weak Q2 guidance. In addition, it is not clear to me what the catalyst will be to improve the company's awfully small margins going forward. That is especially the case considering Zillow plans to hire an additional 2,000 employees this year, increasing its headcount by some 40%. In my opinion, this headcount growth will be a significant headwind when it comes to increasing margins. That is, Zillow is not able to demonstrate increasing margins as it tries to scale-up its operations.\nMeantime, the pivot to iHome also means that ZG now has significantly more macro-level risks as it will be increasingly dependent on the ups (now..) and downs (coming...) of the housing market.\nRisks\nThe risk of buying Zillow Group today is - in my opinion, a priced-to-near-perfection valuation level. I say \"near perfection\" because it was priced to perfection when I wrote my \"Take Profits\" article on ZG, and since it is down 30% since that piece was published, now I will simply call ZG a \"rich valuation\" proposition.\nThe goods news is that Zillow has a relatively strong balance sheet: it ended the quarter with $4.7 billion in cash (up from $3.9 billion at the end of 2020) after completing a $551 million stock offering during the quarter.\nThat compares to $2.259 billion in debt, which was down slightly from year-end. As a result, the company has an estimated $9.19/share in net cash based on the 265.5 million diluted shares outstanding at the end of Q1. And Zillow will likely need to keep a fair amount of cash in order to offset its higher risk profile due to direct exposure to the housing market. That is because history shows us the US housing market can change on-a-dime and could catch ZG holding a rather large inventory of homes.\nSummary & Conclusion\nWhile Zillow's Q1 report was certainly much improved on a sequential basis, the company's own Q2 guidance seems to be more indicative of the thesis I presented in my last article on the company. That is, the stock's valuation simply appears to be substantially out-of-whack in comparison to its demonstrated growth metrics. More shares, falling sequential adjusted EBITDA in Q2 despite a hot and highly appreciating housing market and ... well, I just cannot understand the current valuation level. As a result, I maintain the opinion from my previous article: I wouldn't be interested in ZG until it reached the ~$50/share level.\nI will end with a five-year price chart of ZG and note that my $50 target is roughly where the stock was prior to the pandemic. Certainly the EPS reports issues since that time do not justify the rapid and substantial increase in the shares to $200 ... or, even the current $110 level.\nData byYCharts","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":205,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":112425567,"gmtCreate":1622905658359,"gmtModify":1634096966245,"author":{"id":"3585096019201823","authorId":"3585096019201823","name":"ppangsy","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/20471738d34ed6efdb59281b8fc3b6c8","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3585096019201823","authorIdStr":"3585096019201823"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"I hope facebook can pay more! Pls like my comment","listText":"I hope facebook can pay more! Pls like my comment","text":"I hope facebook can pay more! Pls like my comment","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/112425567","repostId":"2141283597","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2141283597","kind":"highlight","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Reuters.com brings you the latest news from around the world, covering breaking news in markets, business, politics, entertainment and technology","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Reuters","id":"1036604489","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/443ce19704621c837795676028cec868"},"pubTimestamp":1622900369,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2141283597?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-05 21:39","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Facebook says it could pay more tax after G7 deal","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2141283597","media":"Reuters","summary":"LONDON, June 5 (Reuters) - Facebook    welcomes the progress made by the Group of Seven on a minimum","content":"<html><body><p>LONDON, June 5 (Reuters) - <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/FB\">Facebook</a>    welcomes the progress made by the Group of Seven on a minimum tax rate and accepts this could mean the social network pays more tax, and in different places, its head of global affairs Nick Clegg said on Saturday. </p><p>   \"Facebook has long called for reform of the global tax rules and we welcome the important progress made at the G7,\" Clegg said on <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TWTR\">Twitter</a>. \"Today's agreement is a significant first step towards certainty for businesses and strengthening public confidence in the global tax system.</p><p>   \"We want the international tax reform process to succeed and recognize this could mean Facebook paying more tax, and in different places.\"    </p><p> (Reporting by Kate Holton; editing by Michael Holden)</p><p>((kate.holton@thomsonreuters.com; 0044 207 542 8560; Reuters Messaging: kate.holton.thomsonreuters.com@reuters.net))</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Facebook says it could pay more tax after G7 deal</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nFacebook says it could pay more tax after G7 deal\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1036604489\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/443ce19704621c837795676028cec868);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Reuters </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2021-06-05 21:39</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><body><p>LONDON, June 5 (Reuters) - <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/FB\">Facebook</a>    welcomes the progress made by the Group of Seven on a minimum tax rate and accepts this could mean the social network pays more tax, and in different places, its head of global affairs Nick Clegg said on Saturday. </p><p>   \"Facebook has long called for reform of the global tax rules and we welcome the important progress made at the G7,\" Clegg said on <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TWTR\">Twitter</a>. \"Today's agreement is a significant first step towards certainty for businesses and strengthening public confidence in the global tax system.</p><p>   \"We want the international tax reform process to succeed and recognize this could mean Facebook paying more tax, and in different places.\"    </p><p> (Reporting by Kate Holton; editing by Michael Holden)</p><p>((kate.holton@thomsonreuters.com; 0044 207 542 8560; Reuters Messaging: kate.holton.thomsonreuters.com@reuters.net))</p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"09086":"华夏纳指-U","03086":"华夏纳指","QNETCN":"纳斯达克中美互联网老虎指数"},"source_url":"http://api.rkd.refinitiv.com/api/News/News.svc/REST/News_1/RetrieveStoryML_1","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2141283597","content_text":"LONDON, June 5 (Reuters) - Facebook    welcomes the progress made by the Group of Seven on a minimum tax rate and accepts this could mean the social network pays more tax, and in different places, its head of global affairs Nick Clegg said on Saturday.    \"Facebook has long called for reform of the global tax rules and we welcome the important progress made at the G7,\" Clegg said on Twitter. \"Today's agreement is a significant first step towards certainty for businesses and strengthening public confidence in the global tax system.   \"We want the international tax reform process to succeed and recognize this could mean Facebook paying more tax, and in different places.\"     (Reporting by Kate Holton; editing by Michael Holden)((kate.holton@thomsonreuters.com; 0044 207 542 8560; Reuters Messaging: kate.holton.thomsonreuters.com@reuters.net))","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":63,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":111904518,"gmtCreate":1622647408434,"gmtModify":1634099585157,"author":{"id":"3585096019201823","authorId":"3585096019201823","name":"ppangsy","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/20471738d34ed6efdb59281b8fc3b6c8","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3585096019201823","authorIdStr":"3585096019201823"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Hmm interesting article","listText":"Hmm interesting article","text":"Hmm interesting article","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/111904518","repostId":"2140419846","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2140419846","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1622633113,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2140419846?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-02 19:25","market":"us","language":"en","title":"5 Ultra-Popular Stocks to Avoid Like the Plague in June","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2140419846","media":"Motley Fool","summary":"Hype-driven companies and penny stocks are rarely, if ever, a smart place to put your money to work.","content":"<p>Time and again, the stock market has demonstrated that it rewards patience. Despite the quickest drawdown of at least 30% in the broad-based <b>S&amp;P 500</b>'s storied history last year, investors who trusted in their investment theses have been handsomely rewarded. Over the trailing year, 910 stocks with a market cap of at least $300 million have doubled in value, with 62 of those stocks up by more than 500%.</p>\n<p>While it's great to see the U.S. economy getting back on track, some of the most popular stocks investors are buying are downright awful businesses. Even with things looking up for the market as a whole, the following five ultra-popular stocks should be avoided like the plague in June.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8b2e6f5c48ac79126a7c69a95b9659ed\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"484\"><span>Image source: Getty Images.</span></p>\n<h2>AMC Entertainment</h2>\n<p>There's absolutely no question that the No. 1 stock to avoid like the plague in June is movie theater chain <b>AMC Entertainment</b> (NYSE:AMC). It's far and away the most disassociated stock from its underlying business.</p>\n<p>As most folks probably know by now, retail traders from Reddit, <b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TWTR\">Twitter</a></b>, and other social media platforms have banded together to buy shares and call options in AMC, which is a fairly heavily short-sold stock. Their goal being to effect a short squeeze -- i.e., an event where pessimists (short-sellers) feel trapped in their positions and run for the exit at once. Short squeezes are very short-term events and they have a very poor track record of success.</p>\n<p>While I have a laundry list of issues with the basis for this trade, perhaps the single biggest is that retail traders are willingly ignoring AMC's dumpster fire of an income statement and balance sheet. This is a company that almost certainly won't be capable of paying back its debts when they come due by or before 2026. It's also now been hamstrung by the same retail investors who claimed to want to \"save AMC.\" That's because AMC has maxed out how many shares it's authorized to issue, and can therefore not take advantage of higher prices with a capital raise. The May proxy vote would have allowed AMC to take advantage of this recent spike, but shortsightedness from retail traders killed that idea.</p>\n<p>The AMC bull thesis is also built on a monument of misinformation. For example, retail traders believe hedge funds can bankrupt companies, when it's the operating performance and actions of businesses that determine whether or not they succeed or fail.</p>\n<p>Suffice it to say, the willful ignorance of concrete data in AMC's income statements and balance sheets will come back to haunt these traders.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9b574bce2f4c87731881bf278bde1070\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"467\"><span>Image source: Getty Images.</span></p>\n<h2>Marathon Digital Holdings</h2>\n<p>June would also be a very good time to say goodbye to a number <b>Bitcoin</b> (CRYPTO:BTC) stocks. Cryptocurrency miner <b>Marathon Digital Holdings</b> (NASDAQ:MARA) may well top that list.</p>\n<p>As I've been previously stated, I'm not a fan of Bitcoin. Although it's the largest digital currency in the world by market value, it's been stuck at handling a meager 300,000 transactions daily for more than a year and is accepted by approximately 15,200 businesses worldwide. That's nothing when you consider that there an estimated 582 million entrepreneurs around the globe.</p>\n<p>Bitcoin is also prone to long-winded downtrends. Over the past decade, the top cryptocurrency has lost at least 80% of its value on three separate occasions. That's bad news for Marathon for two key reasons. First, Marathon Digital mines Bitcoin, and is therefore reliant on higher prices to increase its revenue. It's not even clear if Marathon's mining operations would be sustainable if Bitcoin, once again, declines by more than 80% from its high of nearly $65,000.</p>\n<p>The other issue is that Marathon purchased $150 million in Bitcoin earlier this year. While still up slightly on its investment, a protracted move lower in Bitcoin threatens to wipe out a good chunk of Marathon Digital's assets.</p>\n<p>I've said it before and I'll say it again: Crypto mining stocks are the worst way to invest in Bitcoin.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/084d89ada48e3614d1b0f7ca9fd0aa9c\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"467\"><span>Image source: Getty Images.</span></p>\n<h2>Sundial Growers</h2>\n<p>Following its late-May rally, <b>Sundial Growers</b> (NASDAQ:SNDL) has once more emerged as the top marijuana stock to avoid, as well as <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE\">one</a> of the worst stocks to buy, as a whole.</p>\n<p>While marijuana is an intriguing place to put your money to work over the next five to 10 years, Canadian pot stock Sundial has consistently underperformed its peers and done nothing to build shareholder value.</p>\n<p>In an effort to rid its balance sheet of debt, the company's management team began selling stock in October 2020... and it just hasn't stopped. Sundial has built up a cash hoard of 1.08 billion Canadian (about $894 million U.S.), but has done so by issuing more than 1.35 billion shares of stock in eight months. As of May 7, the company had 1.86 billion shares outstanding -- and this figure is likely to go higher with an $800 million at-the-market share offering approved earlier this year. Sundial is building up cash with no particular purpose in mind and drowning its shareholders in the process.</p>\n<p>With 1.86 billion shares outstanding, Sundial has virtually no chance of ever producing meaningful earnings per share, and it may not be able to get back above $1 per share on a consistent basis. It'll likely have to follow in the footsteps of serial diluter <b>Aurora Cannabis</b>&nbsp;and reverse split to get its share price to a respectable level.</p>\n<p>As the icing on the cake, legal pot sales in Canada have grown significantly, while Sundial's marijuana sales have been slashed by a double-digit percentage. It's not where you want to put your money to work in the high-growth cannabis space.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2d8206c20bde46bd072cf7ee8a50b2c5\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"463\"><span>Image source: Getty Images.</span></p>\n<h2>Castor Maritime</h2>\n<p>As a general rule, penny stocks are penny stocks for a good reason. A company that consistently has a very low share price probably has an untested operating model, is losing money, and isn't creating value for its shareholders. This pretty much sums up <b>Castor Maritime </b>(NASDAQ:CTRM).</p>\n<p>On paper, the operating model doesn't sound awful. Castor buys vessels capable of transporting dry bulk goods, such as grains, fertilizer, sugar, and steel. If the U.S. and global economy are rebounding from their pandemic lows, demand for dry bulk goods and daily charter rates should increase over time. Pretty straightforward, right?</p>\n<p>The problem is that Castor Maritime didn't have the fleet or the finances to take advantage of this rebound. To compensate, it's been selling shares of its stock like it's going out of style to raise capital to buy new vessels. Castor ended 2020 with six ships but it now owns 26, when all are fully delivered. But it's the company's shareholders who paid the price for this shopping spree. Castor's share count has risen from 3.3 million shares on Dec. 31, 2019 to about 900 million (both figures are pre-split).</p>\n<p>However, last month the company had to enact a 1-for-10 reverse split to simply remain listed on the <b>Nasdaq</b>&nbsp;exchange. Issuing so many shares pushed Castor's share price below $0.40, and a $1 minimum share price is required for continued listing.</p>\n<p>We've witnessed this same dilute and reverse-split story time and again in the shipping space. Castor is no different, which is why it should be avoided.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://g.foolcdn.com/image/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fg.foolcdn.com%2Feditorial%2Fimages%2F629029%2Ffather-son-video-game-controller-console-gamestop-getty.jpg&amp;w=700&amp;op=resize\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"466\"><span>Image source: Getty Images.</span></p>\n<h2>GameStop</h2>\n<p>Since we began with a Reddit pump-and-dump stock (AMC), it's only fitting that we end with another hype-driven Reddit stock: video game and accessories retailer <b>GameStop</b> (NYSE:GME).</p>\n<p>Retail traders have flocked to GameStop for the exact same reason as AMC. GameStop had a larger percentage of its float held short than any other publicly traded company in January. This made it the ideal candidate for a short squeeze. Unfortunately, it's also spurred retail investors to now hone in on short interest data and absolutely nothing else about the companies they're buying.</p>\n<p>To be clear, GameStop is a much, <i>much</i> better and more financially sound company than AMC. A recent share offering helped raise $551 million in gross proceeds, which means GameStop has wiped out its debt and has more than enough cash to move forward with its digital transformation. In fact, all of these avoidable stocks are likely OK on the liquidity front for the next three to five years... except AMC.</p>\n<p>Where GameStop gets into trouble is if you dig into its operating performance. It's always been a brick-and-mortar-focused company. This worked well for two decades, but is problematic now that gaming has gone digital. Even with e-commerce sales up 191% last year, GameStop's total sales declined by more than 21%. In short, sales will be stagnant for years as the company shutters physical locations and invests in digital initiatives. Such challenges certainly don't merit a nearly 1,100% gain on a year-to-date basis.</p>","source":"fool_stock","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>5 Ultra-Popular Stocks to Avoid Like the Plague in June</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n5 Ultra-Popular Stocks to Avoid Like the Plague in June\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-06-02 19:25 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/06/02/5-ultra-popular-stocks-avoid-like-plague-in-june/><strong>Motley Fool</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Time and again, the stock market has demonstrated that it rewards patience. Despite the quickest drawdown of at least 30% in the broad-based S&P 500's storied history last year, investors who trusted ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/06/02/5-ultra-popular-stocks-avoid-like-plague-in-june/\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"GME":"游戏驿站","SNDL":"SNDL Inc.","AMC":"AMC院线","CTRM":"Castor Maritime, Inc.","MARA":"MARA Holdings"},"source_url":"https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/06/02/5-ultra-popular-stocks-avoid-like-plague-in-june/","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2140419846","content_text":"Time and again, the stock market has demonstrated that it rewards patience. Despite the quickest drawdown of at least 30% in the broad-based S&P 500's storied history last year, investors who trusted in their investment theses have been handsomely rewarded. Over the trailing year, 910 stocks with a market cap of at least $300 million have doubled in value, with 62 of those stocks up by more than 500%.\nWhile it's great to see the U.S. economy getting back on track, some of the most popular stocks investors are buying are downright awful businesses. Even with things looking up for the market as a whole, the following five ultra-popular stocks should be avoided like the plague in June.\nImage source: Getty Images.\nAMC Entertainment\nThere's absolutely no question that the No. 1 stock to avoid like the plague in June is movie theater chain AMC Entertainment (NYSE:AMC). It's far and away the most disassociated stock from its underlying business.\nAs most folks probably know by now, retail traders from Reddit, Twitter, and other social media platforms have banded together to buy shares and call options in AMC, which is a fairly heavily short-sold stock. Their goal being to effect a short squeeze -- i.e., an event where pessimists (short-sellers) feel trapped in their positions and run for the exit at once. Short squeezes are very short-term events and they have a very poor track record of success.\nWhile I have a laundry list of issues with the basis for this trade, perhaps the single biggest is that retail traders are willingly ignoring AMC's dumpster fire of an income statement and balance sheet. This is a company that almost certainly won't be capable of paying back its debts when they come due by or before 2026. It's also now been hamstrung by the same retail investors who claimed to want to \"save AMC.\" That's because AMC has maxed out how many shares it's authorized to issue, and can therefore not take advantage of higher prices with a capital raise. The May proxy vote would have allowed AMC to take advantage of this recent spike, but shortsightedness from retail traders killed that idea.\nThe AMC bull thesis is also built on a monument of misinformation. For example, retail traders believe hedge funds can bankrupt companies, when it's the operating performance and actions of businesses that determine whether or not they succeed or fail.\nSuffice it to say, the willful ignorance of concrete data in AMC's income statements and balance sheets will come back to haunt these traders.\nImage source: Getty Images.\nMarathon Digital Holdings\nJune would also be a very good time to say goodbye to a number Bitcoin (CRYPTO:BTC) stocks. Cryptocurrency miner Marathon Digital Holdings (NASDAQ:MARA) may well top that list.\nAs I've been previously stated, I'm not a fan of Bitcoin. Although it's the largest digital currency in the world by market value, it's been stuck at handling a meager 300,000 transactions daily for more than a year and is accepted by approximately 15,200 businesses worldwide. That's nothing when you consider that there an estimated 582 million entrepreneurs around the globe.\nBitcoin is also prone to long-winded downtrends. Over the past decade, the top cryptocurrency has lost at least 80% of its value on three separate occasions. That's bad news for Marathon for two key reasons. First, Marathon Digital mines Bitcoin, and is therefore reliant on higher prices to increase its revenue. It's not even clear if Marathon's mining operations would be sustainable if Bitcoin, once again, declines by more than 80% from its high of nearly $65,000.\nThe other issue is that Marathon purchased $150 million in Bitcoin earlier this year. While still up slightly on its investment, a protracted move lower in Bitcoin threatens to wipe out a good chunk of Marathon Digital's assets.\nI've said it before and I'll say it again: Crypto mining stocks are the worst way to invest in Bitcoin.\nImage source: Getty Images.\nSundial Growers\nFollowing its late-May rally, Sundial Growers (NASDAQ:SNDL) has once more emerged as the top marijuana stock to avoid, as well as one of the worst stocks to buy, as a whole.\nWhile marijuana is an intriguing place to put your money to work over the next five to 10 years, Canadian pot stock Sundial has consistently underperformed its peers and done nothing to build shareholder value.\nIn an effort to rid its balance sheet of debt, the company's management team began selling stock in October 2020... and it just hasn't stopped. Sundial has built up a cash hoard of 1.08 billion Canadian (about $894 million U.S.), but has done so by issuing more than 1.35 billion shares of stock in eight months. As of May 7, the company had 1.86 billion shares outstanding -- and this figure is likely to go higher with an $800 million at-the-market share offering approved earlier this year. Sundial is building up cash with no particular purpose in mind and drowning its shareholders in the process.\nWith 1.86 billion shares outstanding, Sundial has virtually no chance of ever producing meaningful earnings per share, and it may not be able to get back above $1 per share on a consistent basis. It'll likely have to follow in the footsteps of serial diluter Aurora Cannabis and reverse split to get its share price to a respectable level.\nAs the icing on the cake, legal pot sales in Canada have grown significantly, while Sundial's marijuana sales have been slashed by a double-digit percentage. It's not where you want to put your money to work in the high-growth cannabis space.\nImage source: Getty Images.\nCastor Maritime\nAs a general rule, penny stocks are penny stocks for a good reason. A company that consistently has a very low share price probably has an untested operating model, is losing money, and isn't creating value for its shareholders. This pretty much sums up Castor Maritime (NASDAQ:CTRM).\nOn paper, the operating model doesn't sound awful. Castor buys vessels capable of transporting dry bulk goods, such as grains, fertilizer, sugar, and steel. If the U.S. and global economy are rebounding from their pandemic lows, demand for dry bulk goods and daily charter rates should increase over time. Pretty straightforward, right?\nThe problem is that Castor Maritime didn't have the fleet or the finances to take advantage of this rebound. To compensate, it's been selling shares of its stock like it's going out of style to raise capital to buy new vessels. Castor ended 2020 with six ships but it now owns 26, when all are fully delivered. But it's the company's shareholders who paid the price for this shopping spree. Castor's share count has risen from 3.3 million shares on Dec. 31, 2019 to about 900 million (both figures are pre-split).\nHowever, last month the company had to enact a 1-for-10 reverse split to simply remain listed on the Nasdaq exchange. Issuing so many shares pushed Castor's share price below $0.40, and a $1 minimum share price is required for continued listing.\nWe've witnessed this same dilute and reverse-split story time and again in the shipping space. Castor is no different, which is why it should be avoided.\nImage source: Getty Images.\nGameStop\nSince we began with a Reddit pump-and-dump stock (AMC), it's only fitting that we end with another hype-driven Reddit stock: video game and accessories retailer GameStop (NYSE:GME).\nRetail traders have flocked to GameStop for the exact same reason as AMC. GameStop had a larger percentage of its float held short than any other publicly traded company in January. This made it the ideal candidate for a short squeeze. Unfortunately, it's also spurred retail investors to now hone in on short interest data and absolutely nothing else about the companies they're buying.\nTo be clear, GameStop is a much, much better and more financially sound company than AMC. A recent share offering helped raise $551 million in gross proceeds, which means GameStop has wiped out its debt and has more than enough cash to move forward with its digital transformation. In fact, all of these avoidable stocks are likely OK on the liquidity front for the next three to five years... except AMC.\nWhere GameStop gets into trouble is if you dig into its operating performance. It's always been a brick-and-mortar-focused company. This worked well for two decades, but is problematic now that gaming has gone digital. Even with e-commerce sales up 191% last year, GameStop's total sales declined by more than 21%. In short, sales will be stagnant for years as the company shutters physical locations and invests in digital initiatives. Such challenges certainly don't merit a nearly 1,100% gain on a year-to-date basis.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":49,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":185227389,"gmtCreate":1623655542941,"gmtModify":1634030582208,"author":{"id":"3585096019201823","authorId":"3585096019201823","name":"ppangsy","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/20471738d34ed6efdb59281b8fc3b6c8","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3585096019201823","authorIdStr":"3585096019201823"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"It would be a great time to jump in and be vested!","listText":"It would be a great time to jump in and be vested!","text":"It would be a great time to jump in and be vested!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/185227389","repostId":"1101734335","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1101734335","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1623654726,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1101734335?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-14 15:12","market":"us","language":"en","title":"These stocks could be big winners if interest rates continue to fall","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1101734335","media":"CNBC","summary":"Interest rates are unexpectedly retreating, spurring investors to rethink which stocks to bet on as ","content":"<div>\n<p>Interest rates are unexpectedly retreating, spurring investors to rethink which stocks to bet on as 2021 continues. Certain stocks that have performed well when rates fell in the past might just be ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.cnbc.com/2021/06/11/these-stocks-could-be-big-winners-if-interest-rates-continue-to-fall.html\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n","source":"cnbc_highlight","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>These stocks could be big winners if interest rates continue to fall</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nThese stocks could be big winners if interest rates continue to fall\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-06-14 15:12 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.cnbc.com/2021/06/11/these-stocks-could-be-big-winners-if-interest-rates-continue-to-fall.html><strong>CNBC</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Interest rates are unexpectedly retreating, spurring investors to rethink which stocks to bet on as 2021 continues. Certain stocks that have performed well when rates fell in the past might just be ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.cnbc.com/2021/06/11/these-stocks-could-be-big-winners-if-interest-rates-continue-to-fall.html\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"ARE":"亚历山大房地产","GOOGL":"谷歌A","SBAC":"SBA通信","MSFT":"微软","ADBE":"Adobe","TFX":"泰利福","NI":"印北瓦电","PLD":"安博","LRCX":"拉姆研究","NVDA":"英伟达","TMO":"赛默飞世尔","AMZN":"亚马逊","GNRC":"Generac控股","CZR":"凯撒娱乐","V":"Visa","ATVI":"动视暴雪","FMC":"FMC Corp.","INTU":"财捷","AMAT":"应用材料","EQIX":"易昆尼克斯"},"source_url":"https://www.cnbc.com/2021/06/11/these-stocks-could-be-big-winners-if-interest-rates-continue-to-fall.html","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/72bb72e1b84c09fca865c6dcb1bbcd16","article_id":"1101734335","content_text":"Interest rates are unexpectedly retreating, spurring investors to rethink which stocks to bet on as 2021 continues. Certain stocks that have performed well when rates fell in the past might just be big winners again.\nInvestors anticipated higher interest rates this year as the economy reopens, triggering big growth and inflation. Yet despite some high inflation readings, rates have started reversing lower.\nThe May consumer price index came in hotter-than-expected on Thursday, jumping 5% from a year earlier — the fastest pace since 2008. Even so, the 10-year Treasury yield fell as low as 1.43% this week, down from its high for the year of 1.77% and the lowest level in three months.\nCNBC PRO identified eight periods of significant drops in the 10-year Treasury yield over the past decade. We then calculated the median return for S&P 500 stocks during those periods. The stocks below had the best returns during periods when the 10-year yield was falling.\nWhat’s more, we filtered out stocks that are currently not loved by analysts. These stocks have a buy rating from at least 70% of analysts.\nSTOCKS WITH BIG RETURNS DURING FALLING RATE PERIODS\n\n\n\nSYMBOL\nCOMPANY\nSECTOR\n(%) MEDIAN GAIN DURING FALLING RATE PERIODS\n(%) BUY RATING\n\n\n\n\nEQIX\nEquinix, Inc.\nFinance\n27.1\n83.9\n\n\nNVDA\nNVIDIA Corporation\nTechnology\n23.7\n73.8\n\n\nSBAC\nSBA Communications Corp. Class A\nFinance\n20.9\n85.0\n\n\nPLD\nPrologis, Inc.\nFinance\n19.3\n80.0\n\n\nLRCX\nLam Research Corporation\nTechnology\n17.1\n73.9\n\n\nAMZN\nAmazon.com, Inc.\nConsumer Non-Cyclicals\n15.3\n85.7\n\n\nNI\nNiSource Inc\nUtilities\n15.1\n71.4\n\n\nMSFT\nMicrosoft Corporation\nTechnology\n13.7\n83.3\n\n\nV\nVisa Inc. Class A\nFinance\n13.4\n72.5\n\n\nATVI\nActivision Blizzard, Inc.\nTechnology\n12.3\n73.5\n\n\nARE\nAlexandria Real Estate Equities, Inc.\nFinance\n11.8\n90.9\n\n\nTFX\nTeleflex Incorporated\nHealthcare\n11.7\n90.9\n\n\nTMO\nThermo Fisher Scientific Inc.\nHealthcare\n11.0\n73.9\n\n\nCZR\nCaesars Entertainment Inc\nConsumer Services\n10.9\n73.3\n\n\nINTU\nIntuit Inc.\nTechnology\n10.8\n72.0\n\n\nADBE\nAdobe Inc.\nTechnology\n10.8\n74.1\n\n\nFMC\nFMC Corporation\nNon-Energy Materials\n10.3\n84.2\n\n\nAMAT\nApplied Materials, Inc.\nTechnology\n10.2\n75.0\n\n\nGOOGL\nAlphabet Inc. Class A\nTechnology\n9.9\n86.7\n\n\nGNRC\nGenerac Holdings Inc.\nIndustrials\n9.5\n81.3\n\n\n\n(Source: FactSet)\nIf rates continue to retreat, it eases concerns about growth and technology shares and their high valuations. And history fits that theory, with many tech names making the list of top low-rate performers.\nBig tech names like Amazon,Microsoft and Google-parent Alphabet made CNBC PRO’s screen — and it looks those stocks are already seeing some interest from investors. Amazon, Microsoft and Alphabet are on track to gain a few percentage points this week.\nHigh-growth stock Nvidia is also on the list. Shares of the chip maker are up more than 30% in 2021 and have more than doubled in the past 12 months.\nReal estate investment trusts like Equinix,SBA Communications and Prologis also make CNBC PRO’s list. REITs typically perform well amid lower rates because they pay out a large portion of their revenue to investors in the form of dividends. Lower rates make those steady payouts look more attractive by comparison.\nLam Research,Visa and Caesars Entertainment are other names that have performed well in previous periods of low interest rates.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":470,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":186519238,"gmtCreate":1623509679324,"gmtModify":1634032250924,"author":{"id":"3585096019201823","authorId":"3585096019201823","name":"ppangsy","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/20471738d34ed6efdb59281b8fc3b6c8","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3585096019201823","authorIdStr":"3585096019201823"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"I want to buy in some!","listText":"I want to buy in some!","text":"I want to buy in some!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/186519238","repostId":"2142206100","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2142206100","kind":"highlight","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Dow Jones publishes the world’s most trusted business news and financial information in a variety of media.","home_visible":0,"media_name":"Dow Jones","id":"106","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/150f88aa4d182df19190059f4a365e99"},"pubTimestamp":1623470400,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2142206100?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-12 12:00","market":"hk","language":"en","title":"15 momentum stocks expected to show the best sales growth over the next two years, including Carvana, Tesla and Palantir","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2142206100","media":"Dow Jones","summary":"Several companies on a stock screen have estimated two-year revenue growth of over 100%.\nThere are m","content":"<p>Several companies on a stock screen have estimated two-year revenue growth of over 100%.</p>\n<p>There are many broad approaches to the stock market for selecting individual companies or groups for investments. Momentum investing -- trying to ride the wave of other investors' sentiment -- is popular for day-traders, especially during the current meme-stock craze. But it can also work over the long term.</p>\n<p>Below is a list of momentum stocks of companies expected to show the strongest sales growth over the next two years.</p>\n<p>Momentum ETF</p>\n<p>To begin with a large group of momentum stocks, we can look at the <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MTUM\">iShares MSCI USA Momentum Factor</a> ETF (MTUM). This is the largest U.S. ETF that follows a momentum strategy, according to Mark Hulbert performance relative to its benchmark, the S&amp;P 500 Growth Index.</p>\n<p>For example, the largest holding of the ETF is Tesla Inc. <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">$(TSLA)$</a>, which \"has experienced strong risk-adjusted performance related to the market over the past 12 months,\" according to <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/EEME\">iShares</a> (a subsidiary of BlackRock Inc. <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BLK\">$(BLK)$</a>). But shares of Merck &amp; Co. Inc. <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MRK\">$(MRK)$</a> are excluded from MTUM because even though <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/EGRW\">iShares</a> considered its 12-month return \"attractive,\" the stock's six-month risk-adjusted return underperformed the benchmark.</p>\n<p>So keeping in mind the weighting by price performance relative to the index, tempered by volatility (going back as much as three years), here are the top 10 holdings of the <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/IHPXF\">iShares MSCI</a> USA Momentum Factor ETF:</p>\n<table>\n <tbody>\n  <tr>\n   <td>Company</td>\n   <td>Ticker</td>\n   <td>Share of MTUM</td>\n  </tr>\n  <tr>\n   <td>Tesla Inc.</td>\n   <td>TSLA</td>\n   <td>5.00%</td>\n  </tr>\n  <tr>\n   <td>JPMorgan Chase &amp; Co.</td>\n   <td>JPM</td>\n   <td>4.76%</td>\n  </tr>\n  <tr>\n   <td>Berkshire Hathaway Inc. Class B</td>\n   <td>BRK.B</td>\n   <td>4.58%</td>\n  </tr>\n  <tr>\n   <td>Walt Disney Co.</td>\n   <td>DIS</td>\n   <td>4.48%</td>\n  </tr>\n  <tr>\n   <td>$Bank of America Corp(BAC-N)$.</td>\n   <td>BAC</td>\n   <td>4.29%</td>\n  </tr>\n  <tr>\n   <td><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PYPL\">PayPal</a> Holdings Inc.</td>\n   <td>PYPL</td>\n   <td>3.66%</td>\n  </tr>\n  <tr>\n   <td>Wells Fargo &amp; Co.</td>\n   <td>WFC</td>\n   <td>3.11%</td>\n  </tr>\n  <tr>\n   <td>Applied Materials Inc.</td>\n   <td>AMAT</td>\n   <td>3.00%</td>\n  </tr>\n  <tr>\n   <td>Alphabet Inc. Class C</td>\n   <td>GOOG</td>\n   <td>2.67%</td>\n  </tr>\n  <tr>\n   <td>Alphabet Inc. Class A</td>\n   <td>GOOGL</td>\n   <td>2.45%</td>\n  </tr>\n  <tr>\n   <td>Goldman Sachs Group Inc.</td>\n   <td>GS</td>\n   <td>2.30%</td>\n  </tr>\n  <tr>\n   <td>(FactSet)</td>\n   <td></td>\n   <td></td>\n  </tr>\n </tbody>\n</table>\n<p>Actually, there are 11 stocks listed, as MTUM holds both share classes of Alphabet Inc. Banks and insurers make up half the list, which makes sense because financials have been the second-best performing sector in the S&amp;P 500 , after the materials sector.</p>\n<p>Momentum stock screen -- expected sales growth</p>\n<p>Thinking again about financials, they have had plenty of momentum as investors have gained confidence the U.S. economy will continue roaring back from the damage caused by the coronavirus pandemic.</p>\n<p>But revenue growth can be an important driver, especially for individual stock prices over the long term. From here, the financials might not be the best place to look for rapidly rising revenue over the next two years.</p>\n<p>Starting with the 125 momentum stocks held by MTUM, here are the 15 companies expected by analysts polled by FactSet to increase revenue the most over the next two calendar years, with 2021 as the baseline. The figures are in millions of dollars:</p>\n<p>Those are stellar sales-growth numbers -- if the analysts are close to being correct. Many of the stocks are also expensive relative to the expected 2023 sales numbers. In comparison, the <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/EMDI\">iShares</a> S&amp;P 500 Growth ETF <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/IVW\">$(IVW)$</a> (which tracks the entire S&amp;P 500 Growth Index) trades for 4.2 times estimated 2023 sales.</p>\n<p>Plug Power Inc. <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PLUG\">$(PLUG)$</a> tops the list, with analysts expecting sales to increase to $1.1 billion in 2023. The company said on June 10 it would build a hydrogen-production plant in Camden County, Ga.</p>\n<p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SNAP\">Snap Inc</a>. (SNAP) CEO Evan Spiegal said recently the company had grown to 500 million active daily users and that almost half of U.S. smartphone users were using Snapchat.</p>\n<p>Novavax Inc. <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVAX\">$(NVAX)$</a> expects to apply for FDA approval of its coronavirus vaccine during the third quarter.</p>\n<p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CVNA\">Carvana Co.</a> (CVNA) has been on a tear, with used-car demand spiking in the wake of component shortages for automobile production. The company's sales by units increased 76% in the first quarter from a year earlier.</p>\n<p>Uber Technologies Inc. <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/UBER\">$(UBER)$</a> and Lyft Inc <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LYFT\">$(LYFT)$</a> are also expected to ride the economic recovery wave, although analysts expect Lyft to take longer to exceed its pre-pandemic revenue level .</p>\n<p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PLTR\">Palantir Technologies Inc.</a> (PLTR) rounds out the list. The developer of software used by government defense and intelligence agencies was included in this analysis of meme stocks .</p>\n<p>Earnings</p>\n<p>Some of these companies are still in relatively early growth stages, and aren't expected to achieve full-year profitability until 2023. Here are consensus earnings-per-share estimates for three years:</p>\n<p>Those are very high price-to-earnings ratios based on current stock prices and consensus estimates for 2023. But for rapidly growing companies, earnings typically aren't a priority, which explains why Amazon.com Inc. <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMZN\">$(AMZN)$</a> always trades at a high P/E. In comparison, the the <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/EMEY\">iShares</a> S&amp;P 500 Growth ETF trades for 23.3 times its weighted aggregate consensus earnings estimate for 2023.</p>\n<p>Wall Street's opinion</p>\n<p>Here's a summary of opinion about the 15 companies held by MTUM that analysts expect to grow their revenue the most over the next two years:</p>\n<p>The 12-month price targets may not be useful -- for traders, this is an eternity; it may be a short period for long-term investors looking to profit for years as sales (and hopefully earnings, eventually) compound. It is important to do your own research and form your own opinion about a company's financial health and its ability to remain competitive.</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>15 momentum stocks expected to show the best sales growth over the next two years, including Carvana, Tesla and Palantir</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n15 momentum stocks expected to show the best sales growth over the next two years, including Carvana, Tesla and Palantir\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<div class=\"head\" \">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/150f88aa4d182df19190059f4a365e99);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Dow Jones </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2021-06-12 12:00</p>\n</div>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Several companies on a stock screen have estimated two-year revenue growth of over 100%.</p>\n<p>There are many broad approaches to the stock market for selecting individual companies or groups for investments. Momentum investing -- trying to ride the wave of other investors' sentiment -- is popular for day-traders, especially during the current meme-stock craze. But it can also work over the long term.</p>\n<p>Below is a list of momentum stocks of companies expected to show the strongest sales growth over the next two years.</p>\n<p>Momentum ETF</p>\n<p>To begin with a large group of momentum stocks, we can look at the <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MTUM\">iShares MSCI USA Momentum Factor</a> ETF (MTUM). This is the largest U.S. ETF that follows a momentum strategy, according to Mark Hulbert performance relative to its benchmark, the S&amp;P 500 Growth Index.</p>\n<p>For example, the largest holding of the ETF is Tesla Inc. <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">$(TSLA)$</a>, which \"has experienced strong risk-adjusted performance related to the market over the past 12 months,\" according to <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/EEME\">iShares</a> (a subsidiary of BlackRock Inc. <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BLK\">$(BLK)$</a>). But shares of Merck &amp; Co. Inc. <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MRK\">$(MRK)$</a> are excluded from MTUM because even though <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/EGRW\">iShares</a> considered its 12-month return \"attractive,\" the stock's six-month risk-adjusted return underperformed the benchmark.</p>\n<p>So keeping in mind the weighting by price performance relative to the index, tempered by volatility (going back as much as three years), here are the top 10 holdings of the <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/IHPXF\">iShares MSCI</a> USA Momentum Factor ETF:</p>\n<table>\n <tbody>\n  <tr>\n   <td>Company</td>\n   <td>Ticker</td>\n   <td>Share of MTUM</td>\n  </tr>\n  <tr>\n   <td>Tesla Inc.</td>\n   <td>TSLA</td>\n   <td>5.00%</td>\n  </tr>\n  <tr>\n   <td>JPMorgan Chase &amp; Co.</td>\n   <td>JPM</td>\n   <td>4.76%</td>\n  </tr>\n  <tr>\n   <td>Berkshire Hathaway Inc. Class B</td>\n   <td>BRK.B</td>\n   <td>4.58%</td>\n  </tr>\n  <tr>\n   <td>Walt Disney Co.</td>\n   <td>DIS</td>\n   <td>4.48%</td>\n  </tr>\n  <tr>\n   <td>$Bank of America Corp(BAC-N)$.</td>\n   <td>BAC</td>\n   <td>4.29%</td>\n  </tr>\n  <tr>\n   <td><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PYPL\">PayPal</a> Holdings Inc.</td>\n   <td>PYPL</td>\n   <td>3.66%</td>\n  </tr>\n  <tr>\n   <td>Wells Fargo &amp; Co.</td>\n   <td>WFC</td>\n   <td>3.11%</td>\n  </tr>\n  <tr>\n   <td>Applied Materials Inc.</td>\n   <td>AMAT</td>\n   <td>3.00%</td>\n  </tr>\n  <tr>\n   <td>Alphabet Inc. Class C</td>\n   <td>GOOG</td>\n   <td>2.67%</td>\n  </tr>\n  <tr>\n   <td>Alphabet Inc. Class A</td>\n   <td>GOOGL</td>\n   <td>2.45%</td>\n  </tr>\n  <tr>\n   <td>Goldman Sachs Group Inc.</td>\n   <td>GS</td>\n   <td>2.30%</td>\n  </tr>\n  <tr>\n   <td>(FactSet)</td>\n   <td></td>\n   <td></td>\n  </tr>\n </tbody>\n</table>\n<p>Actually, there are 11 stocks listed, as MTUM holds both share classes of Alphabet Inc. Banks and insurers make up half the list, which makes sense because financials have been the second-best performing sector in the S&amp;P 500 , after the materials sector.</p>\n<p>Momentum stock screen -- expected sales growth</p>\n<p>Thinking again about financials, they have had plenty of momentum as investors have gained confidence the U.S. economy will continue roaring back from the damage caused by the coronavirus pandemic.</p>\n<p>But revenue growth can be an important driver, especially for individual stock prices over the long term. From here, the financials might not be the best place to look for rapidly rising revenue over the next two years.</p>\n<p>Starting with the 125 momentum stocks held by MTUM, here are the 15 companies expected by analysts polled by FactSet to increase revenue the most over the next two calendar years, with 2021 as the baseline. The figures are in millions of dollars:</p>\n<p>Those are stellar sales-growth numbers -- if the analysts are close to being correct. Many of the stocks are also expensive relative to the expected 2023 sales numbers. In comparison, the <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/EMDI\">iShares</a> S&amp;P 500 Growth ETF <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/IVW\">$(IVW)$</a> (which tracks the entire S&amp;P 500 Growth Index) trades for 4.2 times estimated 2023 sales.</p>\n<p>Plug Power Inc. <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PLUG\">$(PLUG)$</a> tops the list, with analysts expecting sales to increase to $1.1 billion in 2023. The company said on June 10 it would build a hydrogen-production plant in Camden County, Ga.</p>\n<p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SNAP\">Snap Inc</a>. (SNAP) CEO Evan Spiegal said recently the company had grown to 500 million active daily users and that almost half of U.S. smartphone users were using Snapchat.</p>\n<p>Novavax Inc. <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVAX\">$(NVAX)$</a> expects to apply for FDA approval of its coronavirus vaccine during the third quarter.</p>\n<p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CVNA\">Carvana Co.</a> (CVNA) has been on a tear, with used-car demand spiking in the wake of component shortages for automobile production. The company's sales by units increased 76% in the first quarter from a year earlier.</p>\n<p>Uber Technologies Inc. <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/UBER\">$(UBER)$</a> and Lyft Inc <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LYFT\">$(LYFT)$</a> are also expected to ride the economic recovery wave, although analysts expect Lyft to take longer to exceed its pre-pandemic revenue level .</p>\n<p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PLTR\">Palantir Technologies Inc.</a> (PLTR) rounds out the list. The developer of software used by government defense and intelligence agencies was included in this analysis of meme stocks .</p>\n<p>Earnings</p>\n<p>Some of these companies are still in relatively early growth stages, and aren't expected to achieve full-year profitability until 2023. Here are consensus earnings-per-share estimates for three years:</p>\n<p>Those are very high price-to-earnings ratios based on current stock prices and consensus estimates for 2023. But for rapidly growing companies, earnings typically aren't a priority, which explains why Amazon.com Inc. <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMZN\">$(AMZN)$</a> always trades at a high P/E. In comparison, the the <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/EMEY\">iShares</a> S&amp;P 500 Growth ETF trades for 23.3 times its weighted aggregate consensus earnings estimate for 2023.</p>\n<p>Wall Street's opinion</p>\n<p>Here's a summary of opinion about the 15 companies held by MTUM that analysts expect to grow their revenue the most over the next two years:</p>\n<p>The 12-month price targets may not be useful -- for traders, this is an eternity; it may be a short period for long-term investors looking to profit for years as sales (and hopefully earnings, eventually) compound. It is important to do your own research and form your own opinion about a company's financial health and its ability to remain competitive.</p>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"PLTR":"Palantir Technologies Inc.","SNAP":"Snap Inc","CVNA":"Carvana Co.","PLUG":"普拉格能源","TSLA":"特斯拉"},"is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2142206100","content_text":"Several companies on a stock screen have estimated two-year revenue growth of over 100%.\nThere are many broad approaches to the stock market for selecting individual companies or groups for investments. Momentum investing -- trying to ride the wave of other investors' sentiment -- is popular for day-traders, especially during the current meme-stock craze. But it can also work over the long term.\nBelow is a list of momentum stocks of companies expected to show the strongest sales growth over the next two years.\nMomentum ETF\nTo begin with a large group of momentum stocks, we can look at the iShares MSCI USA Momentum Factor ETF (MTUM). This is the largest U.S. ETF that follows a momentum strategy, according to Mark Hulbert performance relative to its benchmark, the S&P 500 Growth Index.\nFor example, the largest holding of the ETF is Tesla Inc. $(TSLA)$, which \"has experienced strong risk-adjusted performance related to the market over the past 12 months,\" according to iShares (a subsidiary of BlackRock Inc. $(BLK)$). But shares of Merck & Co. Inc. $(MRK)$ are excluded from MTUM because even though iShares considered its 12-month return \"attractive,\" the stock's six-month risk-adjusted return underperformed the benchmark.\nSo keeping in mind the weighting by price performance relative to the index, tempered by volatility (going back as much as three years), here are the top 10 holdings of the iShares MSCI USA Momentum Factor ETF:\n\n\n\nCompany\nTicker\nShare of MTUM\n\n\nTesla Inc.\nTSLA\n5.00%\n\n\nJPMorgan Chase & Co.\nJPM\n4.76%\n\n\nBerkshire Hathaway Inc. Class B\nBRK.B\n4.58%\n\n\nWalt Disney Co.\nDIS\n4.48%\n\n\n$Bank of America Corp(BAC-N)$.\nBAC\n4.29%\n\n\nPayPal Holdings Inc.\nPYPL\n3.66%\n\n\nWells Fargo & Co.\nWFC\n3.11%\n\n\nApplied Materials Inc.\nAMAT\n3.00%\n\n\nAlphabet Inc. Class C\nGOOG\n2.67%\n\n\nAlphabet Inc. Class A\nGOOGL\n2.45%\n\n\nGoldman Sachs Group Inc.\nGS\n2.30%\n\n\n(FactSet)\n\n\n\n\n\nActually, there are 11 stocks listed, as MTUM holds both share classes of Alphabet Inc. Banks and insurers make up half the list, which makes sense because financials have been the second-best performing sector in the S&P 500 , after the materials sector.\nMomentum stock screen -- expected sales growth\nThinking again about financials, they have had plenty of momentum as investors have gained confidence the U.S. economy will continue roaring back from the damage caused by the coronavirus pandemic.\nBut revenue growth can be an important driver, especially for individual stock prices over the long term. From here, the financials might not be the best place to look for rapidly rising revenue over the next two years.\nStarting with the 125 momentum stocks held by MTUM, here are the 15 companies expected by analysts polled by FactSet to increase revenue the most over the next two calendar years, with 2021 as the baseline. The figures are in millions of dollars:\nThose are stellar sales-growth numbers -- if the analysts are close to being correct. Many of the stocks are also expensive relative to the expected 2023 sales numbers. In comparison, the iShares S&P 500 Growth ETF $(IVW)$ (which tracks the entire S&P 500 Growth Index) trades for 4.2 times estimated 2023 sales.\nPlug Power Inc. $(PLUG)$ tops the list, with analysts expecting sales to increase to $1.1 billion in 2023. The company said on June 10 it would build a hydrogen-production plant in Camden County, Ga.\nSnap Inc. (SNAP) CEO Evan Spiegal said recently the company had grown to 500 million active daily users and that almost half of U.S. smartphone users were using Snapchat.\nNovavax Inc. $(NVAX)$ expects to apply for FDA approval of its coronavirus vaccine during the third quarter.\nCarvana Co. (CVNA) has been on a tear, with used-car demand spiking in the wake of component shortages for automobile production. The company's sales by units increased 76% in the first quarter from a year earlier.\nUber Technologies Inc. $(UBER)$ and Lyft Inc $(LYFT)$ are also expected to ride the economic recovery wave, although analysts expect Lyft to take longer to exceed its pre-pandemic revenue level .\nPalantir Technologies Inc. (PLTR) rounds out the list. The developer of software used by government defense and intelligence agencies was included in this analysis of meme stocks .\nEarnings\nSome of these companies are still in relatively early growth stages, and aren't expected to achieve full-year profitability until 2023. Here are consensus earnings-per-share estimates for three years:\nThose are very high price-to-earnings ratios based on current stock prices and consensus estimates for 2023. But for rapidly growing companies, earnings typically aren't a priority, which explains why Amazon.com Inc. $(AMZN)$ always trades at a high P/E. In comparison, the the iShares S&P 500 Growth ETF trades for 23.3 times its weighted aggregate consensus earnings estimate for 2023.\nWall Street's opinion\nHere's a summary of opinion about the 15 companies held by MTUM that analysts expect to grow their revenue the most over the next two years:\nThe 12-month price targets may not be useful -- for traders, this is an eternity; it may be a short period for long-term investors looking to profit for years as sales (and hopefully earnings, eventually) compound. It is important to do your own research and form your own opinion about a company's financial health and its ability to remain competitive.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":318,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}