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jefftt

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2021-09-08

like

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2021-08-26

pls like. thx

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2021-08-26

pls like. thx

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2021-08-16

good

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2021-08-13

good

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2021-08-03

yes

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2021-07-22

nice

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2021-07-22

nice

Uber’s Freight sub to buy Transplace for $2.25 bln in cash and stock

2021-07-16

nice! nice! nice!

Nasdaq ends lower as investors sell Big Tech

2021-07-16

great

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2021-07-16

nice

Apple In 2025: DCF Model Update

2021-07-16

nice

Apple In 2025: DCF Model Update

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0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nUber’s Freight sub to buy Transplace for $2.25 bln in cash and stock\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1079075236\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Tiger Newspress </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2021-07-22 21:04</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>(July 22)&nbsp;Uber’s Freight sub to buy Transplace for $2.25 bln in cash and stock.</p>\n<p>In&nbsp;premarket&nbsp;trading,&nbsp;uber&nbsp;fell&nbsp;0.63%,&nbsp;lyft&nbsp;dipped&nbsp;0.48%,&nbsp;didi&nbsp;was&nbsp;down&nbsp;nearly&nbsp;5%.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f1660839b06ee1a8ff86f14a40134e15\" tg-width=\"299\" tg-height=\"127\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"LYFT":"Lyft, Inc.","DIDI":"滴滴(已退市)","UBER":"优步"},"is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1194720270","content_text":"(July 22) Uber’s Freight sub to buy Transplace for $2.25 bln in cash and stock.\nIn premarket trading, uber fell 0.63%, lyft dipped 0.48%, didi was down nearly 5%.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":354,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":170803792,"gmtCreate":1626416772516,"gmtModify":1633926926395,"author":{"id":"3583057062119819","authorId":"3583057062119819","name":"jefftt","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6bd621880c70630553bf57418e846287","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3583057062119819","idStr":"3583057062119819"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"nice!&nbsp; nice! nice!","listText":"nice!&nbsp; nice! nice!","text":"nice! nice! nice!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/170803792","repostId":"2151573133","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2151573133","kind":"highlight","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Reuters.com brings you the latest news from around the world, covering breaking news in markets, business, politics, entertainment and technology","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Reuters","id":"1036604489","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/443ce19704621c837795676028cec868"},"pubTimestamp":1626379249,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2151573133?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-07-16 04:00","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Nasdaq ends lower as investors sell Big Tech","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2151573133","media":"Reuters","summary":"July 15  - The Nasdaq ended lower on Thursday, pulled down by Apple, Amazon and other Big Tech companies as a fall in weekly jobless claims data fed investor concerns about a recent inflation spike.Amazon, Apple, Tesla and $Facebook$all fell. Nvidia tumbled around 4%.The S&P 500 technology sector index ended a four-day winning streak. Earlier this week, investors' favor for heavyweight growth stocks pushed the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq to record highs.The S&P 500 energy sector index fell more than ","content":"<ul>\n <li>U.S. weekly jobless claims fall to 16-month low</li>\n <li>Tech sector ends four-day winning streak</li>\n</ul>\n<p>July 15 (Reuters) - The Nasdaq ended lower on Thursday, pulled down by Apple, Amazon and other Big Tech companies as a fall in weekly jobless claims data fed investor concerns about a recent inflation spike.</p>\n<p>Amazon, Apple,&nbsp;Tesla and <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/FB\">Facebook</a>all fell. Nvidia&nbsp;tumbled around 4%.</p>\n<p>The S&amp;P 500 technology sector index ended a four-day winning streak. Earlier this week, investors' favor for heavyweight growth stocks pushed the S&amp;P 500 and the Nasdaq to record highs.</p>\n<p>The S&amp;P 500 energy sector index fell more than 1% and tracked a drop in crude prices on expectations of more supply after a compromise agreement between leading OPEC producers.</p>\n<p>Fresh data showed the number of Americans filing new claims for unemployment benefits fell last week to a 16-month low, while worker shortages and bottlenecks in the supply chain have frustrated efforts by businesses to ramp up production to meet strong demand for goods and services.</p>\n<p>Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell told lawmakers he anticipated the shortages and high inflation would abate. Yet many investors still worry that more sustained inflation could lead to a sooner-than-expected tightening of monetary policy.</p>\n<p>\"People are very nervous and concerned about inflation, tax rates and the (2022 midterm) election. Those three things are very much on people's minds,\" said 6 Meridian Chief Investment Officer Andrew Mies, describing recent phone calls with his firm's clients.</p>\n<p>Unofficially, the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 54.52 points, or 0.16%, to 34,987.75, the S&amp;P 500 lost 14.29 points, or 0.33%, to 4,360.01 and the Nasdaq Composite&nbsp;dropped 101.82 points, or 0.7%, to 14,543.13.</p>\n<p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MSTLW\">Morgan Stanley</a> dipped as much as 1.2% after it beat expectations for quarterly profit, getting a boost from record investment banking activity even as the trading bonanza that supported results in recent quarters slowed down.</p>\n<p>Second-quarter reporting season kicked off this week, with the four largest U.S. lenders - Wells Fargo &amp; Co , $Bank of America Corp(BAC-N)$ , $Citigroup Inc(C-N)$ and JPMorgan Chase &amp; Co - posting a combined $33 billion in profits, but also highlighting the industry's sensitivity to low interest rates.</p>\n<p>Blackstone said late on Wednesday it would pay $2.2 billion for 9.9% stake in American International Group's life and retirement business. AIG and Blackstone both rallied.</p>\n<p>Johnson &amp; Johnson dipped after it voluntarily recalled five aerosol sunscreen products in the United States after detecting a cancer-causing chemical in some samples.</p>\n<p>(Reporting by Noel Randewich; Additional reporting by Devik Jain and Shreyashi Sanyal in Bengaluru; Editing by Maju Samuel)</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Nasdaq ends lower as investors sell Big Tech</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nNasdaq ends lower as investors sell Big Tech\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1036604489\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/443ce19704621c837795676028cec868);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Reuters </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2021-07-16 04:00</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<ul>\n <li>U.S. weekly jobless claims fall to 16-month low</li>\n <li>Tech sector ends four-day winning streak</li>\n</ul>\n<p>July 15 (Reuters) - The Nasdaq ended lower on Thursday, pulled down by Apple, Amazon and other Big Tech companies as a fall in weekly jobless claims data fed investor concerns about a recent inflation spike.</p>\n<p>Amazon, Apple,&nbsp;Tesla and <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/FB\">Facebook</a>all fell. Nvidia&nbsp;tumbled around 4%.</p>\n<p>The S&amp;P 500 technology sector index ended a four-day winning streak. Earlier this week, investors' favor for heavyweight growth stocks pushed the S&amp;P 500 and the Nasdaq to record highs.</p>\n<p>The S&amp;P 500 energy sector index fell more than 1% and tracked a drop in crude prices on expectations of more supply after a compromise agreement between leading OPEC producers.</p>\n<p>Fresh data showed the number of Americans filing new claims for unemployment benefits fell last week to a 16-month low, while worker shortages and bottlenecks in the supply chain have frustrated efforts by businesses to ramp up production to meet strong demand for goods and services.</p>\n<p>Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell told lawmakers he anticipated the shortages and high inflation would abate. Yet many investors still worry that more sustained inflation could lead to a sooner-than-expected tightening of monetary policy.</p>\n<p>\"People are very nervous and concerned about inflation, tax rates and the (2022 midterm) election. Those three things are very much on people's minds,\" said 6 Meridian Chief Investment Officer Andrew Mies, describing recent phone calls with his firm's clients.</p>\n<p>Unofficially, the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 54.52 points, or 0.16%, to 34,987.75, the S&amp;P 500 lost 14.29 points, or 0.33%, to 4,360.01 and the Nasdaq Composite&nbsp;dropped 101.82 points, or 0.7%, to 14,543.13.</p>\n<p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MSTLW\">Morgan Stanley</a> dipped as much as 1.2% after it beat expectations for quarterly profit, getting a boost from record investment banking activity even as the trading bonanza that supported results in recent quarters slowed down.</p>\n<p>Second-quarter reporting season kicked off this week, with the four largest U.S. lenders - Wells Fargo &amp; Co , $Bank of America Corp(BAC-N)$ , $Citigroup Inc(C-N)$ and JPMorgan Chase &amp; Co - posting a combined $33 billion in profits, but also highlighting the industry's sensitivity to low interest rates.</p>\n<p>Blackstone said late on Wednesday it would pay $2.2 billion for 9.9% stake in American International Group's life and retirement business. AIG and Blackstone both rallied.</p>\n<p>Johnson &amp; Johnson dipped after it voluntarily recalled five aerosol sunscreen products in the United States after detecting a cancer-causing chemical in some samples.</p>\n<p>(Reporting by Noel Randewich; Additional reporting by Devik Jain and Shreyashi Sanyal in Bengaluru; Editing by Maju Samuel)</p>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"161125":"标普500","513500":"标普500ETF",".DJI":"道琼斯","OEF":"标普100指数ETF-iShares","BAC":"美国银行","DOG":"道指反向ETF","QQQ":"纳指100ETF",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","C":"花旗","OEX":"标普100","AMZN":"亚马逊",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","TSLA":"特斯拉","QID":"纳指两倍做空ETF","QNETCN":"纳斯达克中美互联网老虎指数","BX":"黑石","SH":"标普500反向ETF","TQQQ":"纳指三倍做多ETF","MS":"摩根士丹利","DJX":"1/100道琼斯","JPM":"摩根大通","JNJ":"强生","IVV":"标普500指数ETF","WFC":"富国银行","DXD":"道指两倍做空ETF","PSQ":"纳指反向ETF","QLD":"纳指两倍做多ETF","UPRO":"三倍做多标普500ETF","NVDA":"英伟达","UDOW":"道指三倍做多ETF-ProShares","03086":"华夏纳指","SSO":"两倍做多标普500ETF","SDS":"两倍做空标普500ETF","AAPL":"苹果","SDOW":"道指三倍做空ETF-ProShares","SPXU":"三倍做空标普500ETF","DDM":"道指两倍做多ETF","AIG":"美国国际集团","SQQQ":"纳指三倍做空ETF","09086":"华夏纳指-U"},"is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2151573133","content_text":"U.S. weekly jobless claims fall to 16-month low\nTech sector ends four-day winning streak\n\nJuly 15 (Reuters) - The Nasdaq ended lower on Thursday, pulled down by Apple, Amazon and other Big Tech companies as a fall in weekly jobless claims data fed investor concerns about a recent inflation spike.\nAmazon, Apple, Tesla and Facebookall fell. Nvidia tumbled around 4%.\nThe S&P 500 technology sector index ended a four-day winning streak. Earlier this week, investors' favor for heavyweight growth stocks pushed the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq to record highs.\nThe S&P 500 energy sector index fell more than 1% and tracked a drop in crude prices on expectations of more supply after a compromise agreement between leading OPEC producers.\nFresh data showed the number of Americans filing new claims for unemployment benefits fell last week to a 16-month low, while worker shortages and bottlenecks in the supply chain have frustrated efforts by businesses to ramp up production to meet strong demand for goods and services.\nFederal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell told lawmakers he anticipated the shortages and high inflation would abate. Yet many investors still worry that more sustained inflation could lead to a sooner-than-expected tightening of monetary policy.\n\"People are very nervous and concerned about inflation, tax rates and the (2022 midterm) election. Those three things are very much on people's minds,\" said 6 Meridian Chief Investment Officer Andrew Mies, describing recent phone calls with his firm's clients.\nUnofficially, the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 54.52 points, or 0.16%, to 34,987.75, the S&P 500 lost 14.29 points, or 0.33%, to 4,360.01 and the Nasdaq Composite dropped 101.82 points, or 0.7%, to 14,543.13.\nMorgan Stanley dipped as much as 1.2% after it beat expectations for quarterly profit, getting a boost from record investment banking activity even as the trading bonanza that supported results in recent quarters slowed down.\nSecond-quarter reporting season kicked off this week, with the four largest U.S. lenders - Wells Fargo & Co , $Bank of America Corp(BAC-N)$ , $Citigroup Inc(C-N)$ and JPMorgan Chase & Co - posting a combined $33 billion in profits, but also highlighting the industry's sensitivity to low interest rates.\nBlackstone said late on Wednesday it would pay $2.2 billion for 9.9% stake in American International Group's life and retirement business. AIG and Blackstone both rallied.\nJohnson & Johnson dipped after it voluntarily recalled five aerosol sunscreen products in the United States after detecting a cancer-causing chemical in some samples.\n(Reporting by Noel Randewich; Additional reporting by Devik Jain and Shreyashi Sanyal in Bengaluru; Editing by Maju Samuel)","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":383,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":170809735,"gmtCreate":1626416643927,"gmtModify":1633926926862,"author":{"id":"3583057062119819","authorId":"3583057062119819","name":"jefftt","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6bd621880c70630553bf57418e846287","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3583057062119819","idStr":"3583057062119819"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"great","listText":"great","text":"great","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/170809735","repostId":"1176367685","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":488,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":170800744,"gmtCreate":1626416576688,"gmtModify":1633926927087,"author":{"id":"3583057062119819","authorId":"3583057062119819","name":"jefftt","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6bd621880c70630553bf57418e846287","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3583057062119819","idStr":"3583057062119819"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"nice","listText":"nice","text":"nice","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/170800744","repostId":"1189921948","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1189921948","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1626414777,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1189921948?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-07-16 13:52","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Apple In 2025: DCF Model Update","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1189921948","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Summary\n\nThis is an update to my Apple revenue and DCF model published about a month ago, taking int","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p>\n<ul>\n <li>This is an update to my Apple revenue and DCF model published about a month ago, taking into account a recent rumor from Mark Gurman at Bloomberg.</li>\n <li>The rumor is that Apple’s initial iPhone order for 2022 is up 20% from its blowout 2021. This would represent the kind of back-to-back performance iPhone hasn’t seen since 2014-2015.</li>\n <li>Apple’s share price has gotten ahead of its cash flows, and even in this rumor scenario, there is not a lot of fair value upside in the next year.</li>\n <li>My recommendations remain unchanged.</li>\n</ul>\n<p><b>We’re Gonna Need a Bigger Boat</b></p>\n<p>I recently published avery long articleon my long term Apple(NASDAQ:AAPL)thesis. You can be thankful that I am not here to repeat those 7,000 words. Included in the article was a 2025 DCF model with four scenarios. Because of this chart, each scenario assumed iPhone revenue would be down from fiscal 2021’s blowout in 2022 and 2023:</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f7f8aedd681fd593d93dddb8cc729aac\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"381\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>In that chart, you can pretty clearly see the 3-year cycle, with 2015, 2018 and 2021 as the tentpole years. But then Apple rumor millchurned this outon Tuesday this week:</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0a91eb20e82f9598a938e67d8d3a97d4\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"194\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p><i>Bloomberg screenshot</i></p>\n<p>Bloomberg’s Mark Gurman has been a pretty reliable source of Apple gossip, so we should take this as a serious possibility. I am estimating iPhone will surge 37% YoY in fiscal 2021. To bump up another 20% in 2022 would be the kind of back-to-back performance iPhone hasn’t seen since 2014-2015.</p>\n<p>To be clear:</p>\n<ul>\n <li>The specific rumor is that Apple has bumped up their initial order from 75 million to 90 million.</li>\n <li>This is a rumor, albeit from a reliable source, and may not even be true, or be a misinterpretation of other information.</li>\n <li>Even if true, there can be other reasons besides increased anticipated demand for Apple wanting to increase the initial order. For example, they may need capacity or supply for something else in early calendar 2022, and they are pushing forward iPhone production to clear the decks.</li>\n</ul>\n<p>But putting that aside, let’s look at what happens to the DCF and revenue models if iPhone sees a 20% YoY gain in 2022 rather than the -6% drop I was modeling into my best case scenario. The drops in the previous second years of the cycle were -12% in 2016 and -14% in 2019. A 20% increase would be a huge shift from the pattern.</p>\n<p><b>Five Scenarios</b></p>\n<p>Models of the future are generally an expression of the author’s biases with math laid over it. My number one recommendation for consumers of these sorts of things is skepticism and a thorough frisking of assumptions. The recentTesla model from ARK Investmentis a cautionary tale for everyone. There areExcel worksheetson GitHub with the model, and all the major assumptions are modifiable. Each scenario is a separate worksheet.</p>\n<p>Let’s first look at some assumptions common to the original four scenarios:</p>\n<ul>\n <li>iPhone continues to exhibit a 3-year cyclical pattern. Fiscal 2021 is the high year, so 2024 is the next one.</li>\n <li>Legal and regulatory action trims App Store and thus Services growth a little.</li>\n <li>Wearables, etc. remains on its strong growth path on Apple Watch, AirPods, AirTags, and at least one new product category, a VR headset in calendar 2022.</li>\n <li>Mac and iPad return roughly to their pre-pandemic patterns. Like all PC makers, Apple saw abig surgefrom work-from-home.</li>\n <li>Fiscal 2021 is half-reported, so all scenarios assume that it will complete along Apple’s average seasonal pattern from 2016-2019.</li>\n <li>Other assumptions are in the Excel sheets.</li>\n</ul>\n<p>Scenarios:</p>\n<ol>\n <li>Large, had been most optimistic case, but now we have a larger one based on this rumor.</li>\n <li>Medium, my base case.</li>\n <li>Small is what Apple looks like if they come off the growth rates of the last 4-6 years.</li>\n <li>Tiny is the same as Small through 2023, and then we’re going to throw some real problems at Apple.</li>\n <li>Gurman Rumor is the same as Large, but with the new inflated iPhone projections.</li>\n</ol>\n<p>In Medium:</p>\n<ul>\n <li>We’ll model the iPhone cycle with the average growth rates of the 2015 and 2018 cycles.</li>\n <li>Services growth comes off of 2016-2020 trajectory by 2 pp because of legal or regulatory action on App Store.</li>\n <li>The rest, as above.</li>\n</ul>\n<p>Large and Small will, respectively, add and subtract from these growth rates in Medium. In addition, Large assumes:</p>\n<ul>\n <li>Boost in fiscal 2022-2025 for iPhone on 5G adoption.</li>\n <li>Apple Silicon Macs gain Apple some PC market share.</li>\n <li>Apple's AR glasses come out in the middle of fiscal 2025. To be clear, I view that as an unlikely timeline, but it does not have a large effect on the model since it comes 6 months from the end of our interval.</li>\n</ul>\n<p>Tiny is a special event-based scenario where we will throw the two worst plausible scenarios we can at Apple. It starts with a huge reduction in App Store revenues due to antitrust action in the US and Europe at the end of fiscal 2023, and getting kicked out of China at the end of fiscal 2024. The former will be modeled as a sharp downturn in Services revenue in fiscal 2024. The China expulsion will lead to a 15% drop in top line revenue, and a decrease in products gross margin by 5 pp in 2025. I don’t view either of these as particularly likely, but this is the worst it can get.</p>\n<p><b>Apple Stock in 2025</b></p>\n<p>This table summarizes the results of the model scenarios:</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/627cf8bb56d0111fd73bb08563552c10\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"198\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>The interesting result to me is that the Gurman scenario does not boost cash flows and fair value as much as I expected. This is an artifact of the growth of the Services and Wearables, etc. segments, now 30% of all Apple revenue:</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7e7c93e5533b009f089b91803a1f3a2f\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"364\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>Even with iPhone’s extraordinary fiscal 2021, up 37% YoY by my estimate, iPhone was still 53% of Apple’s total net sales, down from 66% in 2015, the peak. While still the biggest thing on Apple’s tables, it is not nearly as important to consolidated Apple’s income statement as it was even 3 years ago, when it was 62% of Apple net sales.</p>\n<p>This chart tracks the growth of fair value over the course of the models.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/71adf9785e904740f3eaae349f1fd8b8\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"353\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>The rest of Apple has become so big that even adding $50 billion to 2022 iPhone sales going from the Large scenario to the Gurman Rumor scenario only raises free cash flow and the share price by about 8%. In the end, it represents a 3.1 pp increase in annual fair value appreciation over Large by 2025, but almost 10 pp per year over Medium, which remains my base case until we have a little more clarity on this rumor.</p>\n<p>So the overall conclusion from my original article remains. Likely a lot of the gains of 2021 and 2022 are already baked into Apple’s price, especially since it is up 17% since the original article published in June. Since the beginning of fiscal 2020, Apple share price is up 140%, which has already captured a lot of the cash flow growth. Most likely fiscal 2023 is where we see it break out again.</p>\n<p>But if Gurman’s rumor is correct, the breakout will come sooner, likely after they report Q4 2021 around the end of October, and give us guidance for Q1 2022. If that is much higher than expectations, that will likely represent a new leg up in share price. But Apple share price has appreciated so much already, even in the Gurman Rumor scenario that doesn’t represent a huge change in fair value over Thursday’s close:</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e94838bde5f985f7a186dc7a4bdb1cad\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"353\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>So my recommendations remain:</p>\n<ul>\n <li>If your time horizon for Apple is short, now is a good time to take profits.</li>\n <li>But if your time horizon is long like mine, there is no other company with the range of long-term strengths Apple has, and a cash-flow machine which will eventually catch up to the inflated price.</li>\n</ul>\n<p>For more details on those long term strengths and that cash-flow machine, see the original June article.</p>","source":"seekingalpha","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Apple In 2025: DCF Model Update</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nApple In 2025: DCF Model Update\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-07-16 13:52 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4439401-apple-in-2025-dcf-model-update><strong>seekingalpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Summary\n\nThis is an update to my Apple revenue and DCF model published about a month ago, taking into account a recent rumor from Mark Gurman at Bloomberg.\nThe rumor is that Apple’s initial iPhone ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4439401-apple-in-2025-dcf-model-update\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AAPL":"苹果"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4439401-apple-in-2025-dcf-model-update","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/5a36db9d73b4222bc376d24ccc48c8a4","article_id":"1189921948","content_text":"Summary\n\nThis is an update to my Apple revenue and DCF model published about a month ago, taking into account a recent rumor from Mark Gurman at Bloomberg.\nThe rumor is that Apple’s initial iPhone order for 2022 is up 20% from its blowout 2021. This would represent the kind of back-to-back performance iPhone hasn’t seen since 2014-2015.\nApple’s share price has gotten ahead of its cash flows, and even in this rumor scenario, there is not a lot of fair value upside in the next year.\nMy recommendations remain unchanged.\n\nWe’re Gonna Need a Bigger Boat\nI recently published avery long articleon my long term Apple(NASDAQ:AAPL)thesis. You can be thankful that I am not here to repeat those 7,000 words. Included in the article was a 2025 DCF model with four scenarios. Because of this chart, each scenario assumed iPhone revenue would be down from fiscal 2021’s blowout in 2022 and 2023:\n\nIn that chart, you can pretty clearly see the 3-year cycle, with 2015, 2018 and 2021 as the tentpole years. But then Apple rumor millchurned this outon Tuesday this week:\n\nBloomberg screenshot\nBloomberg’s Mark Gurman has been a pretty reliable source of Apple gossip, so we should take this as a serious possibility. I am estimating iPhone will surge 37% YoY in fiscal 2021. To bump up another 20% in 2022 would be the kind of back-to-back performance iPhone hasn’t seen since 2014-2015.\nTo be clear:\n\nThe specific rumor is that Apple has bumped up their initial order from 75 million to 90 million.\nThis is a rumor, albeit from a reliable source, and may not even be true, or be a misinterpretation of other information.\nEven if true, there can be other reasons besides increased anticipated demand for Apple wanting to increase the initial order. For example, they may need capacity or supply for something else in early calendar 2022, and they are pushing forward iPhone production to clear the decks.\n\nBut putting that aside, let’s look at what happens to the DCF and revenue models if iPhone sees a 20% YoY gain in 2022 rather than the -6% drop I was modeling into my best case scenario. The drops in the previous second years of the cycle were -12% in 2016 and -14% in 2019. A 20% increase would be a huge shift from the pattern.\nFive Scenarios\nModels of the future are generally an expression of the author’s biases with math laid over it. My number one recommendation for consumers of these sorts of things is skepticism and a thorough frisking of assumptions. The recentTesla model from ARK Investmentis a cautionary tale for everyone. There areExcel worksheetson GitHub with the model, and all the major assumptions are modifiable. Each scenario is a separate worksheet.\nLet’s first look at some assumptions common to the original four scenarios:\n\niPhone continues to exhibit a 3-year cyclical pattern. Fiscal 2021 is the high year, so 2024 is the next one.\nLegal and regulatory action trims App Store and thus Services growth a little.\nWearables, etc. remains on its strong growth path on Apple Watch, AirPods, AirTags, and at least one new product category, a VR headset in calendar 2022.\nMac and iPad return roughly to their pre-pandemic patterns. Like all PC makers, Apple saw abig surgefrom work-from-home.\nFiscal 2021 is half-reported, so all scenarios assume that it will complete along Apple’s average seasonal pattern from 2016-2019.\nOther assumptions are in the Excel sheets.\n\nScenarios:\n\nLarge, had been most optimistic case, but now we have a larger one based on this rumor.\nMedium, my base case.\nSmall is what Apple looks like if they come off the growth rates of the last 4-6 years.\nTiny is the same as Small through 2023, and then we’re going to throw some real problems at Apple.\nGurman Rumor is the same as Large, but with the new inflated iPhone projections.\n\nIn Medium:\n\nWe’ll model the iPhone cycle with the average growth rates of the 2015 and 2018 cycles.\nServices growth comes off of 2016-2020 trajectory by 2 pp because of legal or regulatory action on App Store.\nThe rest, as above.\n\nLarge and Small will, respectively, add and subtract from these growth rates in Medium. In addition, Large assumes:\n\nBoost in fiscal 2022-2025 for iPhone on 5G adoption.\nApple Silicon Macs gain Apple some PC market share.\nApple's AR glasses come out in the middle of fiscal 2025. To be clear, I view that as an unlikely timeline, but it does not have a large effect on the model since it comes 6 months from the end of our interval.\n\nTiny is a special event-based scenario where we will throw the two worst plausible scenarios we can at Apple. It starts with a huge reduction in App Store revenues due to antitrust action in the US and Europe at the end of fiscal 2023, and getting kicked out of China at the end of fiscal 2024. The former will be modeled as a sharp downturn in Services revenue in fiscal 2024. The China expulsion will lead to a 15% drop in top line revenue, and a decrease in products gross margin by 5 pp in 2025. I don’t view either of these as particularly likely, but this is the worst it can get.\nApple Stock in 2025\nThis table summarizes the results of the model scenarios:\n\nThe interesting result to me is that the Gurman scenario does not boost cash flows and fair value as much as I expected. This is an artifact of the growth of the Services and Wearables, etc. segments, now 30% of all Apple revenue:\n\nEven with iPhone’s extraordinary fiscal 2021, up 37% YoY by my estimate, iPhone was still 53% of Apple’s total net sales, down from 66% in 2015, the peak. While still the biggest thing on Apple’s tables, it is not nearly as important to consolidated Apple’s income statement as it was even 3 years ago, when it was 62% of Apple net sales.\nThis chart tracks the growth of fair value over the course of the models.\n\nThe rest of Apple has become so big that even adding $50 billion to 2022 iPhone sales going from the Large scenario to the Gurman Rumor scenario only raises free cash flow and the share price by about 8%. In the end, it represents a 3.1 pp increase in annual fair value appreciation over Large by 2025, but almost 10 pp per year over Medium, which remains my base case until we have a little more clarity on this rumor.\nSo the overall conclusion from my original article remains. Likely a lot of the gains of 2021 and 2022 are already baked into Apple’s price, especially since it is up 17% since the original article published in June. Since the beginning of fiscal 2020, Apple share price is up 140%, which has already captured a lot of the cash flow growth. Most likely fiscal 2023 is where we see it break out again.\nBut if Gurman’s rumor is correct, the breakout will come sooner, likely after they report Q4 2021 around the end of October, and give us guidance for Q1 2022. If that is much higher than expectations, that will likely represent a new leg up in share price. But Apple share price has appreciated so much already, even in the Gurman Rumor scenario that doesn’t represent a huge change in fair value over Thursday’s close:\n\nSo my recommendations remain:\n\nIf your time horizon for Apple is short, now is a good time to take profits.\nBut if your time horizon is long like mine, there is no other company with the range of long-term strengths Apple has, and a cash-flow machine which will eventually catch up to the inflated price.\n\nFor more details on those long term strengths and that cash-flow machine, see the original June article.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":131,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":170800610,"gmtCreate":1626416543330,"gmtModify":1633926927333,"author":{"id":"3583057062119819","authorId":"3583057062119819","name":"jefftt","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6bd621880c70630553bf57418e846287","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3583057062119819","idStr":"3583057062119819"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"nice","listText":"nice","text":"nice","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/170800610","repostId":"1189921948","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1189921948","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1626414777,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1189921948?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-07-16 13:52","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Apple In 2025: DCF Model Update","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1189921948","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Summary\n\nThis is an update to my Apple revenue and DCF model published about a month ago, taking int","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p>\n<ul>\n <li>This is an update to my Apple revenue and DCF model published about a month ago, taking into account a recent rumor from Mark Gurman at Bloomberg.</li>\n <li>The rumor is that Apple’s initial iPhone order for 2022 is up 20% from its blowout 2021. This would represent the kind of back-to-back performance iPhone hasn’t seen since 2014-2015.</li>\n <li>Apple’s share price has gotten ahead of its cash flows, and even in this rumor scenario, there is not a lot of fair value upside in the next year.</li>\n <li>My recommendations remain unchanged.</li>\n</ul>\n<p><b>We’re Gonna Need a Bigger Boat</b></p>\n<p>I recently published avery long articleon my long term Apple(NASDAQ:AAPL)thesis. You can be thankful that I am not here to repeat those 7,000 words. Included in the article was a 2025 DCF model with four scenarios. Because of this chart, each scenario assumed iPhone revenue would be down from fiscal 2021’s blowout in 2022 and 2023:</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f7f8aedd681fd593d93dddb8cc729aac\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"381\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>In that chart, you can pretty clearly see the 3-year cycle, with 2015, 2018 and 2021 as the tentpole years. But then Apple rumor millchurned this outon Tuesday this week:</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0a91eb20e82f9598a938e67d8d3a97d4\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"194\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p><i>Bloomberg screenshot</i></p>\n<p>Bloomberg’s Mark Gurman has been a pretty reliable source of Apple gossip, so we should take this as a serious possibility. I am estimating iPhone will surge 37% YoY in fiscal 2021. To bump up another 20% in 2022 would be the kind of back-to-back performance iPhone hasn’t seen since 2014-2015.</p>\n<p>To be clear:</p>\n<ul>\n <li>The specific rumor is that Apple has bumped up their initial order from 75 million to 90 million.</li>\n <li>This is a rumor, albeit from a reliable source, and may not even be true, or be a misinterpretation of other information.</li>\n <li>Even if true, there can be other reasons besides increased anticipated demand for Apple wanting to increase the initial order. For example, they may need capacity or supply for something else in early calendar 2022, and they are pushing forward iPhone production to clear the decks.</li>\n</ul>\n<p>But putting that aside, let’s look at what happens to the DCF and revenue models if iPhone sees a 20% YoY gain in 2022 rather than the -6% drop I was modeling into my best case scenario. The drops in the previous second years of the cycle were -12% in 2016 and -14% in 2019. A 20% increase would be a huge shift from the pattern.</p>\n<p><b>Five Scenarios</b></p>\n<p>Models of the future are generally an expression of the author’s biases with math laid over it. My number one recommendation for consumers of these sorts of things is skepticism and a thorough frisking of assumptions. The recentTesla model from ARK Investmentis a cautionary tale for everyone. There areExcel worksheetson GitHub with the model, and all the major assumptions are modifiable. Each scenario is a separate worksheet.</p>\n<p>Let’s first look at some assumptions common to the original four scenarios:</p>\n<ul>\n <li>iPhone continues to exhibit a 3-year cyclical pattern. Fiscal 2021 is the high year, so 2024 is the next one.</li>\n <li>Legal and regulatory action trims App Store and thus Services growth a little.</li>\n <li>Wearables, etc. remains on its strong growth path on Apple Watch, AirPods, AirTags, and at least one new product category, a VR headset in calendar 2022.</li>\n <li>Mac and iPad return roughly to their pre-pandemic patterns. Like all PC makers, Apple saw abig surgefrom work-from-home.</li>\n <li>Fiscal 2021 is half-reported, so all scenarios assume that it will complete along Apple’s average seasonal pattern from 2016-2019.</li>\n <li>Other assumptions are in the Excel sheets.</li>\n</ul>\n<p>Scenarios:</p>\n<ol>\n <li>Large, had been most optimistic case, but now we have a larger one based on this rumor.</li>\n <li>Medium, my base case.</li>\n <li>Small is what Apple looks like if they come off the growth rates of the last 4-6 years.</li>\n <li>Tiny is the same as Small through 2023, and then we’re going to throw some real problems at Apple.</li>\n <li>Gurman Rumor is the same as Large, but with the new inflated iPhone projections.</li>\n</ol>\n<p>In Medium:</p>\n<ul>\n <li>We’ll model the iPhone cycle with the average growth rates of the 2015 and 2018 cycles.</li>\n <li>Services growth comes off of 2016-2020 trajectory by 2 pp because of legal or regulatory action on App Store.</li>\n <li>The rest, as above.</li>\n</ul>\n<p>Large and Small will, respectively, add and subtract from these growth rates in Medium. In addition, Large assumes:</p>\n<ul>\n <li>Boost in fiscal 2022-2025 for iPhone on 5G adoption.</li>\n <li>Apple Silicon Macs gain Apple some PC market share.</li>\n <li>Apple's AR glasses come out in the middle of fiscal 2025. To be clear, I view that as an unlikely timeline, but it does not have a large effect on the model since it comes 6 months from the end of our interval.</li>\n</ul>\n<p>Tiny is a special event-based scenario where we will throw the two worst plausible scenarios we can at Apple. It starts with a huge reduction in App Store revenues due to antitrust action in the US and Europe at the end of fiscal 2023, and getting kicked out of China at the end of fiscal 2024. The former will be modeled as a sharp downturn in Services revenue in fiscal 2024. The China expulsion will lead to a 15% drop in top line revenue, and a decrease in products gross margin by 5 pp in 2025. I don’t view either of these as particularly likely, but this is the worst it can get.</p>\n<p><b>Apple Stock in 2025</b></p>\n<p>This table summarizes the results of the model scenarios:</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/627cf8bb56d0111fd73bb08563552c10\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"198\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>The interesting result to me is that the Gurman scenario does not boost cash flows and fair value as much as I expected. This is an artifact of the growth of the Services and Wearables, etc. segments, now 30% of all Apple revenue:</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7e7c93e5533b009f089b91803a1f3a2f\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"364\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>Even with iPhone’s extraordinary fiscal 2021, up 37% YoY by my estimate, iPhone was still 53% of Apple’s total net sales, down from 66% in 2015, the peak. While still the biggest thing on Apple’s tables, it is not nearly as important to consolidated Apple’s income statement as it was even 3 years ago, when it was 62% of Apple net sales.</p>\n<p>This chart tracks the growth of fair value over the course of the models.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/71adf9785e904740f3eaae349f1fd8b8\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"353\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>The rest of Apple has become so big that even adding $50 billion to 2022 iPhone sales going from the Large scenario to the Gurman Rumor scenario only raises free cash flow and the share price by about 8%. In the end, it represents a 3.1 pp increase in annual fair value appreciation over Large by 2025, but almost 10 pp per year over Medium, which remains my base case until we have a little more clarity on this rumor.</p>\n<p>So the overall conclusion from my original article remains. Likely a lot of the gains of 2021 and 2022 are already baked into Apple’s price, especially since it is up 17% since the original article published in June. Since the beginning of fiscal 2020, Apple share price is up 140%, which has already captured a lot of the cash flow growth. Most likely fiscal 2023 is where we see it break out again.</p>\n<p>But if Gurman’s rumor is correct, the breakout will come sooner, likely after they report Q4 2021 around the end of October, and give us guidance for Q1 2022. If that is much higher than expectations, that will likely represent a new leg up in share price. But Apple share price has appreciated so much already, even in the Gurman Rumor scenario that doesn’t represent a huge change in fair value over Thursday’s close:</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e94838bde5f985f7a186dc7a4bdb1cad\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"353\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>So my recommendations remain:</p>\n<ul>\n <li>If your time horizon for Apple is short, now is a good time to take profits.</li>\n <li>But if your time horizon is long like mine, there is no other company with the range of long-term strengths Apple has, and a cash-flow machine which will eventually catch up to the inflated price.</li>\n</ul>\n<p>For more details on those long term strengths and that cash-flow machine, see the original June article.</p>","source":"seekingalpha","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Apple In 2025: DCF Model Update</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nApple In 2025: DCF Model Update\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-07-16 13:52 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4439401-apple-in-2025-dcf-model-update><strong>seekingalpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Summary\n\nThis is an update to my Apple revenue and DCF model published about a month ago, taking into account a recent rumor from Mark Gurman at Bloomberg.\nThe rumor is that Apple’s initial iPhone ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4439401-apple-in-2025-dcf-model-update\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AAPL":"苹果"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4439401-apple-in-2025-dcf-model-update","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/5a36db9d73b4222bc376d24ccc48c8a4","article_id":"1189921948","content_text":"Summary\n\nThis is an update to my Apple revenue and DCF model published about a month ago, taking into account a recent rumor from Mark Gurman at Bloomberg.\nThe rumor is that Apple’s initial iPhone order for 2022 is up 20% from its blowout 2021. This would represent the kind of back-to-back performance iPhone hasn’t seen since 2014-2015.\nApple’s share price has gotten ahead of its cash flows, and even in this rumor scenario, there is not a lot of fair value upside in the next year.\nMy recommendations remain unchanged.\n\nWe’re Gonna Need a Bigger Boat\nI recently published avery long articleon my long term Apple(NASDAQ:AAPL)thesis. You can be thankful that I am not here to repeat those 7,000 words. Included in the article was a 2025 DCF model with four scenarios. Because of this chart, each scenario assumed iPhone revenue would be down from fiscal 2021’s blowout in 2022 and 2023:\n\nIn that chart, you can pretty clearly see the 3-year cycle, with 2015, 2018 and 2021 as the tentpole years. But then Apple rumor millchurned this outon Tuesday this week:\n\nBloomberg screenshot\nBloomberg’s Mark Gurman has been a pretty reliable source of Apple gossip, so we should take this as a serious possibility. I am estimating iPhone will surge 37% YoY in fiscal 2021. To bump up another 20% in 2022 would be the kind of back-to-back performance iPhone hasn’t seen since 2014-2015.\nTo be clear:\n\nThe specific rumor is that Apple has bumped up their initial order from 75 million to 90 million.\nThis is a rumor, albeit from a reliable source, and may not even be true, or be a misinterpretation of other information.\nEven if true, there can be other reasons besides increased anticipated demand for Apple wanting to increase the initial order. For example, they may need capacity or supply for something else in early calendar 2022, and they are pushing forward iPhone production to clear the decks.\n\nBut putting that aside, let’s look at what happens to the DCF and revenue models if iPhone sees a 20% YoY gain in 2022 rather than the -6% drop I was modeling into my best case scenario. The drops in the previous second years of the cycle were -12% in 2016 and -14% in 2019. A 20% increase would be a huge shift from the pattern.\nFive Scenarios\nModels of the future are generally an expression of the author’s biases with math laid over it. My number one recommendation for consumers of these sorts of things is skepticism and a thorough frisking of assumptions. The recentTesla model from ARK Investmentis a cautionary tale for everyone. There areExcel worksheetson GitHub with the model, and all the major assumptions are modifiable. Each scenario is a separate worksheet.\nLet’s first look at some assumptions common to the original four scenarios:\n\niPhone continues to exhibit a 3-year cyclical pattern. Fiscal 2021 is the high year, so 2024 is the next one.\nLegal and regulatory action trims App Store and thus Services growth a little.\nWearables, etc. remains on its strong growth path on Apple Watch, AirPods, AirTags, and at least one new product category, a VR headset in calendar 2022.\nMac and iPad return roughly to their pre-pandemic patterns. Like all PC makers, Apple saw abig surgefrom work-from-home.\nFiscal 2021 is half-reported, so all scenarios assume that it will complete along Apple’s average seasonal pattern from 2016-2019.\nOther assumptions are in the Excel sheets.\n\nScenarios:\n\nLarge, had been most optimistic case, but now we have a larger one based on this rumor.\nMedium, my base case.\nSmall is what Apple looks like if they come off the growth rates of the last 4-6 years.\nTiny is the same as Small through 2023, and then we’re going to throw some real problems at Apple.\nGurman Rumor is the same as Large, but with the new inflated iPhone projections.\n\nIn Medium:\n\nWe’ll model the iPhone cycle with the average growth rates of the 2015 and 2018 cycles.\nServices growth comes off of 2016-2020 trajectory by 2 pp because of legal or regulatory action on App Store.\nThe rest, as above.\n\nLarge and Small will, respectively, add and subtract from these growth rates in Medium. In addition, Large assumes:\n\nBoost in fiscal 2022-2025 for iPhone on 5G adoption.\nApple Silicon Macs gain Apple some PC market share.\nApple's AR glasses come out in the middle of fiscal 2025. To be clear, I view that as an unlikely timeline, but it does not have a large effect on the model since it comes 6 months from the end of our interval.\n\nTiny is a special event-based scenario where we will throw the two worst plausible scenarios we can at Apple. It starts with a huge reduction in App Store revenues due to antitrust action in the US and Europe at the end of fiscal 2023, and getting kicked out of China at the end of fiscal 2024. The former will be modeled as a sharp downturn in Services revenue in fiscal 2024. The China expulsion will lead to a 15% drop in top line revenue, and a decrease in products gross margin by 5 pp in 2025. I don’t view either of these as particularly likely, but this is the worst it can get.\nApple Stock in 2025\nThis table summarizes the results of the model scenarios:\n\nThe interesting result to me is that the Gurman scenario does not boost cash flows and fair value as much as I expected. This is an artifact of the growth of the Services and Wearables, etc. segments, now 30% of all Apple revenue:\n\nEven with iPhone’s extraordinary fiscal 2021, up 37% YoY by my estimate, iPhone was still 53% of Apple’s total net sales, down from 66% in 2015, the peak. While still the biggest thing on Apple’s tables, it is not nearly as important to consolidated Apple’s income statement as it was even 3 years ago, when it was 62% of Apple net sales.\nThis chart tracks the growth of fair value over the course of the models.\n\nThe rest of Apple has become so big that even adding $50 billion to 2022 iPhone sales going from the Large scenario to the Gurman Rumor scenario only raises free cash flow and the share price by about 8%. In the end, it represents a 3.1 pp increase in annual fair value appreciation over Large by 2025, but almost 10 pp per year over Medium, which remains my base case until we have a little more clarity on this rumor.\nSo the overall conclusion from my original article remains. Likely a lot of the gains of 2021 and 2022 are already baked into Apple’s price, especially since it is up 17% since the original article published in June. Since the beginning of fiscal 2020, Apple share price is up 140%, which has already captured a lot of the cash flow growth. Most likely fiscal 2023 is where we see it break out again.\nBut if Gurman’s rumor is correct, the breakout will come sooner, likely after they report Q4 2021 around the end of October, and give us guidance for Q1 2022. If that is much higher than expectations, that will likely represent a new leg up in share price. But Apple share price has appreciated so much already, even in the Gurman Rumor scenario that doesn’t represent a huge change in fair value over Thursday’s close:\n\nSo my recommendations remain:\n\nIf your time horizon for Apple is short, now is a good time to take profits.\nBut if your time horizon is long like mine, there is no other company with the range of long-term strengths Apple has, and a cash-flow machine which will eventually catch up to the inflated price.\n\nFor more details on those long term strengths and that cash-flow machine, see the original June article.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":284,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":810111398,"gmtCreate":1629951474814,"gmtModify":1633681216010,"author":{"id":"3583057062119819","authorId":"3583057062119819","name":"jefftt","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6bd621880c70630553bf57418e846287","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3583057062119819","authorIdStr":"3583057062119819"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"pls like. thx","listText":"pls like. thx","text":"pls like. thx","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/810111398","repostId":"1101434650","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":295,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":830257073,"gmtCreate":1629077620292,"gmtModify":1633687592301,"author":{"id":"3583057062119819","authorId":"3583057062119819","name":"jefftt","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6bd621880c70630553bf57418e846287","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3583057062119819","authorIdStr":"3583057062119819"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"good","listText":"good","text":"good","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":7,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/830257073","repostId":"1159801133","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":410,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":172220135,"gmtCreate":1626963106827,"gmtModify":1633769324265,"author":{"id":"3583057062119819","authorId":"3583057062119819","name":"jefftt","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6bd621880c70630553bf57418e846287","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3583057062119819","authorIdStr":"3583057062119819"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"nice","listText":"nice","text":"nice","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":7,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/172220135","repostId":"1194720270","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1194720270","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Providing stock market headlines, business news, financials and earnings ","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Tiger Newspress","id":"1079075236","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1626959085,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1194720270?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-07-22 21:04","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Uber’s Freight sub to buy Transplace for $2.25 bln in cash and stock","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1194720270","media":"Tiger Newspress","summary":"(July 22) Uber’s Freight sub to buy Transplace for $2.25 bln in cash and stock.\nIn premarket trading","content":"<p>(July 22)&nbsp;Uber’s Freight sub to buy Transplace for $2.25 bln in cash and stock.</p>\n<p>In&nbsp;premarket&nbsp;trading,&nbsp;uber&nbsp;fell&nbsp;0.63%,&nbsp;lyft&nbsp;dipped&nbsp;0.48%,&nbsp;didi&nbsp;was&nbsp;down&nbsp;nearly&nbsp;5%.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f1660839b06ee1a8ff86f14a40134e15\" tg-width=\"299\" tg-height=\"127\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Uber’s Freight sub to buy Transplace for $2.25 bln in cash and stock</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nUber’s Freight sub to buy Transplace for $2.25 bln in cash and stock\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1079075236\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Tiger Newspress </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2021-07-22 21:04</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>(July 22)&nbsp;Uber’s Freight sub to buy Transplace for $2.25 bln in cash and stock.</p>\n<p>In&nbsp;premarket&nbsp;trading,&nbsp;uber&nbsp;fell&nbsp;0.63%,&nbsp;lyft&nbsp;dipped&nbsp;0.48%,&nbsp;didi&nbsp;was&nbsp;down&nbsp;nearly&nbsp;5%.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f1660839b06ee1a8ff86f14a40134e15\" tg-width=\"299\" tg-height=\"127\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"LYFT":"Lyft, Inc.","DIDI":"滴滴(已退市)","UBER":"优步"},"is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1194720270","content_text":"(July 22) Uber’s Freight sub to buy Transplace for $2.25 bln in cash and stock.\nIn premarket trading, uber fell 0.63%, lyft dipped 0.48%, didi was down nearly 5%.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":354,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":804871877,"gmtCreate":1627951715199,"gmtModify":1633754991582,"author":{"id":"3583057062119819","authorId":"3583057062119819","name":"jefftt","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6bd621880c70630553bf57418e846287","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3583057062119819","authorIdStr":"3583057062119819"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"yes","listText":"yes","text":"yes","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/804871877","repostId":"2156114224","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":263,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":897076602,"gmtCreate":1628865373306,"gmtModify":1633688882712,"author":{"id":"3583057062119819","authorId":"3583057062119819","name":"jefftt","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6bd621880c70630553bf57418e846287","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3583057062119819","authorIdStr":"3583057062119819"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"good","listText":"good","text":"good","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/897076602","repostId":"2159291893","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2159291893","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1628864400,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2159291893?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-08-13 22:20","market":"us","language":"en","title":"2 Tech Stocks With 96% to 140% Upside, According to Wall Street","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2159291893","media":"Motley Fool","summary":"Analysts see big gains for Coinbase and Lemonade shareholders.","content":"<p>As a long-term investor, I tend to ignore near-term price targets. Instead, I look for stocks I can hold for at least five years, and preferably longer if my investment thesis remains intact. That being said, price targets can be a good place to find inspiration, and there's no harm in glancing at these figures -- provided you do your own research, too.</p>\n<p>With that in mind, Wall Street analysts see significant upside for&nbsp;<b>Coinbase Global</b> (NASDAQ:COIN) and&nbsp;<b>Lemonade</b> (NYSE:LMND). Let's look at both of these tech stocks.</p>\n<h2>Coinbase Global: 140% implied upside</h2>\n<p>Coinbase helps its clients participate in the cryptoeconomy. Its platform offers a range&nbsp;of products to 68 million&nbsp;users, including retail investors, financial institutions, and ecosystem partners. Of course, brokerage services are the core business, but there's a lot more to Coinbase.</p>\n<p>For instance, its platform also allows individuals to send, spend, borrow, and lend cryptocurrency, and it offers a cold storage solution to institutional clients. Coinbase also provides blockchain analytics tools to law enforcement, application-building tools to developers, and payment processing tools to merchants.</p>\n<p>As of the most recent quarter, Coinbase had $180 billion in assets on its platform, or 11.2%&nbsp;of all crypto assets, making it the market leader. That immense scale demonstrates the company's trusted brand, and it creates an opportunity for further monetization. With those advantages in mind, analysts at D.A. Davidson&nbsp;value Coinbase stock at $650 per share, a 140% premium to its current price.</p>\n<p>Financially, Coinbase is growing at a shocking pace -- but investors should consider these metrics with caution. Transaction fees&nbsp;comprise the vast majority of revenue, and those fees depend on trading volume, which has historically been highly correlated with the price&nbsp;of <b>bitcoin</b> and the volatility of crypto assets. And so far this year, the crypto market has been incredibly volatile, juicing monthly transacting users and revenue.</p>\n<table>\n <thead>\n  <tr>\n   <th><p>Metric</p></th>\n   <th><p>Q2 2020 (TTM)</p></th>\n   <th><p>Q2 2021 (TTM)</p></th>\n   <th><p>CAGR</p></th>\n  </tr>\n </thead>\n <tbody>\n  <tr>\n   <td width=\"156\"><p>Monthly transacting users</p></td>\n   <td width=\"156\"><p>1.5 million</p></td>\n   <td width=\"156\"><p>8.8 million</p></td>\n   <td width=\"156\"><p>487%</p></td>\n  </tr>\n  <tr>\n   <td width=\"156\"><p>Revenue</p></td>\n   <td width=\"156\"><p>$633.8 million</p></td>\n   <td width=\"156\"><p>$4.9 billion</p></td>\n   <td width=\"156\"><p>678%</p></td>\n  </tr>\n </tbody>\n</table>\n<p>Data source: Coinbase&nbsp;SEC filings. TTM&nbsp;= trailing-12-months. CAGR&nbsp;= compound annual growth rates.</p>\n<p>Before buying Coinbase stock, investors should ask themselves <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE.U\">one</a> question: Is cryptocurrency here to stay? If you think the answer is no, forget this stock. But if you see a future for cryptocurrency -- either as a store of value or a transactional medium -- then Coinbase could be a good way to tap into that trend.</p>\n<h2>Lemonade: 96% implied upside</h2>\n<p>Lemonade is a tech company that's disrupting the $5 trillion insurance industry. Specifically, the company uses big data and artificial intelligence to manage many aspects of its business, from quantifying risk and underwriting policies to processing claims and engaging clients.</p>\n<p>This differentiates it from traditional insurance providers, the vast majority of which rely on human brokers and agents. More to the point, many of today's industry leaders were founded over a century ago, long before the digital era, and their businesses simply weren't built&nbsp;to collect and deploy the types of data captured by Lemonade.</p>\n<p>This advantage should make Lemonade's platform faster, cheaper, and more precise over time, creating a flywheel effect that strengthens as the company adds more clients. With that in mind, analysts at Piper Sandler&nbsp;value Lemonade at $163 per share, representing 96% upside compared to its current price.</p>\n<p>Investors shouldn't fool themselves -- disrupting a well-established industry is rarely easy, and Lemonade has a long road ahead. However, the company's early financial results show promise. In Q2 2021, in-force premium (i.e. the annualized sum of customer premiums) reached $296.8 million, up 312% from Q2 2019. Over the same period, Lemonade has added new customers quickly, driving strong growth in gross profit.</p>\n<table>\n <thead>\n  <tr>\n   <th><p>Metric</p></th>\n   <th><p>Q2 2019 (TTM)</p></th>\n   <th><p>Q2 2021 (TTM)</p></th>\n   <th><p>CAGR</p></th>\n  </tr>\n </thead>\n <tbody>\n  <tr>\n   <td width=\"156\"><p>Customers</p></td>\n   <td width=\"156\"><p>442,752</p></td>\n   <td width=\"156\"><p>1.2 million</p></td>\n   <td width=\"156\"><p>65%</p></td>\n  </tr>\n  <tr>\n   <td width=\"156\"><p>Gross profit</p></td>\n   <td width=\"156\"><p>$5.7 million</p></td>\n   <td width=\"156\"><p>$26.5 million</p></td>\n   <td width=\"156\"><p>116%</p></td>\n  </tr>\n </tbody>\n</table>\n<p>Data source: Lemonade SEC filings. TTM = trailing-12-months. CAGR = compound annual growth rate.</p>\n<p>Looking ahead, investors should pay attention to Lemonade's gross loss ratio (i.e. the percentage of premiums paid out in claims). This metric assesses how effectively an insurance company estimates risk and prices policies. For reference, Lemonade aims to keep its average loss ratio below 75% on a multi-year basis. If that number starts trending the wrong direction, it could be a red flag.</p>","source":"fool_stock","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>2 Tech Stocks With 96% to 140% Upside, According to Wall Street</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n2 Tech Stocks With 96% to 140% Upside, According to Wall Street\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-08-13 22:20 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/08/13/tech-stocks-96-to-140-upside-wall-street-coinbase/><strong>Motley Fool</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>As a long-term investor, I tend to ignore near-term price targets. Instead, I look for stocks I can hold for at least five years, and preferably longer if my investment thesis remains intact. That ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/08/13/tech-stocks-96-to-140-upside-wall-street-coinbase/\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"COIN":"Coinbase Global, Inc.","LMND":"Lemonade, Inc."},"source_url":"https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/08/13/tech-stocks-96-to-140-upside-wall-street-coinbase/","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2159291893","content_text":"As a long-term investor, I tend to ignore near-term price targets. Instead, I look for stocks I can hold for at least five years, and preferably longer if my investment thesis remains intact. That being said, price targets can be a good place to find inspiration, and there's no harm in glancing at these figures -- provided you do your own research, too.\nWith that in mind, Wall Street analysts see significant upside for Coinbase Global (NASDAQ:COIN) and Lemonade (NYSE:LMND). Let's look at both of these tech stocks.\nCoinbase Global: 140% implied upside\nCoinbase helps its clients participate in the cryptoeconomy. Its platform offers a range of products to 68 million users, including retail investors, financial institutions, and ecosystem partners. Of course, brokerage services are the core business, but there's a lot more to Coinbase.\nFor instance, its platform also allows individuals to send, spend, borrow, and lend cryptocurrency, and it offers a cold storage solution to institutional clients. Coinbase also provides blockchain analytics tools to law enforcement, application-building tools to developers, and payment processing tools to merchants.\nAs of the most recent quarter, Coinbase had $180 billion in assets on its platform, or 11.2% of all crypto assets, making it the market leader. That immense scale demonstrates the company's trusted brand, and it creates an opportunity for further monetization. With those advantages in mind, analysts at D.A. Davidson value Coinbase stock at $650 per share, a 140% premium to its current price.\nFinancially, Coinbase is growing at a shocking pace -- but investors should consider these metrics with caution. Transaction fees comprise the vast majority of revenue, and those fees depend on trading volume, which has historically been highly correlated with the price of bitcoin and the volatility of crypto assets. And so far this year, the crypto market has been incredibly volatile, juicing monthly transacting users and revenue.\n\n\n\nMetric\nQ2 2020 (TTM)\nQ2 2021 (TTM)\nCAGR\n\n\n\n\nMonthly transacting users\n1.5 million\n8.8 million\n487%\n\n\nRevenue\n$633.8 million\n$4.9 billion\n678%\n\n\n\nData source: Coinbase SEC filings. TTM = trailing-12-months. CAGR = compound annual growth rates.\nBefore buying Coinbase stock, investors should ask themselves one question: Is cryptocurrency here to stay? If you think the answer is no, forget this stock. But if you see a future for cryptocurrency -- either as a store of value or a transactional medium -- then Coinbase could be a good way to tap into that trend.\nLemonade: 96% implied upside\nLemonade is a tech company that's disrupting the $5 trillion insurance industry. Specifically, the company uses big data and artificial intelligence to manage many aspects of its business, from quantifying risk and underwriting policies to processing claims and engaging clients.\nThis differentiates it from traditional insurance providers, the vast majority of which rely on human brokers and agents. More to the point, many of today's industry leaders were founded over a century ago, long before the digital era, and their businesses simply weren't built to collect and deploy the types of data captured by Lemonade.\nThis advantage should make Lemonade's platform faster, cheaper, and more precise over time, creating a flywheel effect that strengthens as the company adds more clients. With that in mind, analysts at Piper Sandler value Lemonade at $163 per share, representing 96% upside compared to its current price.\nInvestors shouldn't fool themselves -- disrupting a well-established industry is rarely easy, and Lemonade has a long road ahead. However, the company's early financial results show promise. In Q2 2021, in-force premium (i.e. the annualized sum of customer premiums) reached $296.8 million, up 312% from Q2 2019. Over the same period, Lemonade has added new customers quickly, driving strong growth in gross profit.\n\n\n\nMetric\nQ2 2019 (TTM)\nQ2 2021 (TTM)\nCAGR\n\n\n\n\nCustomers\n442,752\n1.2 million\n65%\n\n\nGross profit\n$5.7 million\n$26.5 million\n116%\n\n\n\nData source: Lemonade SEC filings. TTM = trailing-12-months. CAGR = compound annual growth rate.\nLooking ahead, investors should pay attention to Lemonade's gross loss ratio (i.e. the percentage of premiums paid out in claims). This metric assesses how effectively an insurance company estimates risk and prices policies. For reference, Lemonade aims to keep its average loss ratio below 75% on a multi-year basis. If that number starts trending the wrong direction, it could be a red flag.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":401,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":810113514,"gmtCreate":1629951443538,"gmtModify":1633681216333,"author":{"id":"3583057062119819","authorId":"3583057062119819","name":"jefftt","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6bd621880c70630553bf57418e846287","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3583057062119819","authorIdStr":"3583057062119819"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"pls like. thx","listText":"pls like. thx","text":"pls like. thx","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/810113514","repostId":"1143017235","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1143017235","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1629948720,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1143017235?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-08-26 11:32","market":"us","language":"en","title":"GameStop Stock: A Taste Of What Could Happen","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1143017235","media":"Thestreet","summary":"Bullishness in GameStop stock paid off on Tuesday, August 24. Shares of the video game retailer spik","content":"<p>Bullishness in GameStop stock paid off on Tuesday, August 24. Shares of the video game retailer spiked by almost 30%. The movement came alongside a strong US stock market, showing that GME is still a meme mania powerhouse.</p>\n<p>Wall Street Memes takes a closer look at recent GameStop stock performance.</p>\n<h3>Boring no more</h3>\n<p>Since early June, GameStop stock had not gone far at all.Boringis the enemy of momentum and GME continued to disappoint shareholders, raising doubts about whether the stock could still have the strength to shoot for new highs.</p>\n<p>However, those who had the patience and a longer-term vision to hang on to the stock have been rewarded. Yes, GME is barely flat compared to ten weeks ago. But a bet placed six months back has produced gains of almost 94%, while one made in early January 2021 has led to gains of almost 1,200%.</p>\n<h3>What’s behind the rally</h3>\n<p>The euphoria of “meme stocks” came as Wall Street set record highs on Tuesday, August 24, driven broadly by the FDA’s Pfizer vaccine approval.</p>\n<p>However, GME’s rally — as well as AMC stock’s (AMC) and other meme names’ – may not have had much to do with broader market drivers. Trading volume in GME was high, at approximately 14 million shares, more than 10 times the regular volume since the start of August.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8eca6f2190a9770051ea8a14da9ac306\" tg-width=\"1200\" tg-height=\"839\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Figure 2: GME historical data and trading volume.Yahoo Finance</span></p>\n<p>Increased activity in GME options may have played a role in higher volumes and share price. Elevated short interest and short covering could have had something to do with it as well.</p>\n<h3>Next steps</h3>\n<p>GameStop enthusiasts seem to be as bullish as always. Consensus on key Reddit forums is a buy and hold until GME, which has 17% of itsfloat shorted, hits the moon. A new short squeeze, perhaps similar to what was seen in late January and February, is not out of question.</p>\n<p>Helping to support the idea is popularity. GME is one of the most popular tickers on Reddit's top forums. Bullish days tend to boost the stock's popularity even further, creating a virtual cycle that favors the longs.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/db401dade45cfa7edacd6212408c10ee\" tg-width=\"1200\" tg-height=\"450\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Figure 3: GME popularity on Reddit, at last check. ApeWisdom</span></p>\n<p>In a recent article, we listed some reasons&nbsp;why investing in GameStop might be a good idea. Among them, the&nbsp;Ryan Cohen factor– i.e. the chairman’s support of GameStop shareholders and visionary plans for the post-pandemic recovery in the brick-and-mortar business – can be a bullish driver.</p>\n<p>All the above is not to say that GameStop will, undoubtedly, climb sharply from current levels. It is merely an indication that the stock still has fuel to burn, and that the “apes” could be well justified in their optimism.</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>GameStop Stock: A Taste Of What Could Happen</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nGameStop Stock: A Taste Of What Could Happen\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-08-26 11:32 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.thestreet.com/memestocks/gme/gamestop-stock-a-taste-of-what-could-happen><strong>Thestreet</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Bullishness in GameStop stock paid off on Tuesday, August 24. Shares of the video game retailer spiked by almost 30%. The movement came alongside a strong US stock market, showing that GME is still a ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.thestreet.com/memestocks/gme/gamestop-stock-a-taste-of-what-could-happen\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"GME":"游戏驿站"},"source_url":"https://www.thestreet.com/memestocks/gme/gamestop-stock-a-taste-of-what-could-happen","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1143017235","content_text":"Bullishness in GameStop stock paid off on Tuesday, August 24. Shares of the video game retailer spiked by almost 30%. The movement came alongside a strong US stock market, showing that GME is still a meme mania powerhouse.\nWall Street Memes takes a closer look at recent GameStop stock performance.\nBoring no more\nSince early June, GameStop stock had not gone far at all.Boringis the enemy of momentum and GME continued to disappoint shareholders, raising doubts about whether the stock could still have the strength to shoot for new highs.\nHowever, those who had the patience and a longer-term vision to hang on to the stock have been rewarded. Yes, GME is barely flat compared to ten weeks ago. But a bet placed six months back has produced gains of almost 94%, while one made in early January 2021 has led to gains of almost 1,200%.\nWhat’s behind the rally\nThe euphoria of “meme stocks” came as Wall Street set record highs on Tuesday, August 24, driven broadly by the FDA’s Pfizer vaccine approval.\nHowever, GME’s rally — as well as AMC stock’s (AMC) and other meme names’ – may not have had much to do with broader market drivers. Trading volume in GME was high, at approximately 14 million shares, more than 10 times the regular volume since the start of August.\nFigure 2: GME historical data and trading volume.Yahoo Finance\nIncreased activity in GME options may have played a role in higher volumes and share price. Elevated short interest and short covering could have had something to do with it as well.\nNext steps\nGameStop enthusiasts seem to be as bullish as always. Consensus on key Reddit forums is a buy and hold until GME, which has 17% of itsfloat shorted, hits the moon. A new short squeeze, perhaps similar to what was seen in late January and February, is not out of question.\nHelping to support the idea is popularity. GME is one of the most popular tickers on Reddit's top forums. Bullish days tend to boost the stock's popularity even further, creating a virtual cycle that favors the longs.\nFigure 3: GME popularity on Reddit, at last check. ApeWisdom\nIn a recent article, we listed some reasons why investing in GameStop might be a good idea. Among them, the Ryan Cohen factor– i.e. the chairman’s support of GameStop shareholders and visionary plans for the post-pandemic recovery in the brick-and-mortar business – can be a bullish driver.\nAll the above is not to say that GameStop will, undoubtedly, climb sharply from current levels. It is merely an indication that the stock still has fuel to burn, and that the “apes” could be well justified in their optimism.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":232,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":172225715,"gmtCreate":1626963367737,"gmtModify":1633769320085,"author":{"id":"3583057062119819","authorId":"3583057062119819","name":"jefftt","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6bd621880c70630553bf57418e846287","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3583057062119819","authorIdStr":"3583057062119819"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"nice","listText":"nice","text":"nice","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/172225715","repostId":"1199303246","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1199303246","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Providing stock market headlines, business news, financials and earnings ","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Tiger Newspress","id":"1079075236","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1626960676,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1199303246?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-07-22 21:31","market":"us","language":"en","title":"US stocks open mixed on Thursday, after rise in jobless claims","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1199303246","media":"Tiger Newspress","summary":"Initial jobless claims jumped significantly last week as 419,000 Americans filed for jobless benefits for the first time .FFIE soared over 15% in morning trading. Faraday Future to Ring the Opening Bell at Nasdaq. LIVE<<. Texas Instruments is set to weigh on tech shares, down more than 4% in early trading.","content":"<p>(July 22)&nbsp;US stocks&nbsp;open mixed on Thursday,&nbsp;after rise in jobless claims.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7a0d932e254fb8e9566e8d4e3df9c245\" tg-width=\"1242\" tg-height=\"555\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p>\n<p>Initial jobless claims jumped significantly last week as 419,000 Americans filed for jobless benefits for the first time (well above the prior week's 368k and expectations of a 350k print).</p>\n<p>FFIE soared over 15% in morning trading.&nbsp;Faraday Future to Ring the Opening Bell&nbsp;at&nbsp;Nasdaq.&nbsp;<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/RN?name=RNLive&amp;rndata=%7B%22liveId%22:%2216266938664455%22%7D&amp;feature=Push\" target=\"_blank\"><b>LIVE&lt;&lt;</b></a></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f435b9d26d1f4f62de59b3704700672e\" tg-width=\"704\" tg-height=\"486\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Texas Instruments is set to weigh on tech shares, down more than 4% in early trading.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8acafdc0c4a9bd231979337ca168df53\" tg-width=\"704\" tg-height=\"486\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>US stocks open mixed on Thursday, after rise in jobless claims</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; 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overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nUS stocks open mixed on Thursday, after rise in jobless claims\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1079075236\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Tiger Newspress </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2021-07-22 21:31</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>(July 22)&nbsp;US stocks&nbsp;open mixed on Thursday,&nbsp;after rise in jobless claims.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7a0d932e254fb8e9566e8d4e3df9c245\" tg-width=\"1242\" tg-height=\"555\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p>\n<p>Initial jobless claims jumped significantly last week as 419,000 Americans filed for jobless benefits for the first time (well above the prior week's 368k and expectations of a 350k print).</p>\n<p>FFIE soared over 15% in morning trading.&nbsp;Faraday Future to Ring the Opening Bell&nbsp;at&nbsp;Nasdaq.&nbsp;<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/RN?name=RNLive&amp;rndata=%7B%22liveId%22:%2216266938664455%22%7D&amp;feature=Push\" target=\"_blank\"><b>LIVE&lt;&lt;</b></a></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f435b9d26d1f4f62de59b3704700672e\" tg-width=\"704\" tg-height=\"486\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Texas Instruments is set to weigh on tech shares, down more than 4% in early trading.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8acafdc0c4a9bd231979337ca168df53\" tg-width=\"704\" tg-height=\"486\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯","SPY":"标普500ETF",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1199303246","content_text":"(July 22) US stocks open mixed on Thursday, after rise in jobless claims.\n\nInitial jobless claims jumped significantly last week as 419,000 Americans filed for jobless benefits for the first time (well above the prior week's 368k and expectations of a 350k print).\nFFIE soared over 15% in morning trading. Faraday Future to Ring the Opening Bell at Nasdaq. LIVE<<\nTexas Instruments is set to weigh on tech shares, down more than 4% in early trading.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":365,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":889080640,"gmtCreate":1631091268380,"gmtModify":1632884689302,"author":{"id":"3583057062119819","authorId":"3583057062119819","name":"jefftt","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6bd621880c70630553bf57418e846287","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3583057062119819","authorIdStr":"3583057062119819"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"like","listText":"like","text":"like","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/889080640","repostId":"1198596381","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1198596381","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1631083337,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1198596381?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-09-08 14:42","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Why Economic Pressure May Build Against Zomedica","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1198596381","media":"InvestorPlace","summary":"ZOM stock doesn’t trade in a vacuum unfortunately.\n\nOn the front-facing side of things, you might no","content":"<blockquote>\n <b>ZOM stock doesn’t trade in a vacuum unfortunately.</b>\n</blockquote>\n<p>On the front-facing side of things, you might not find a better no-brainer (albeit highly speculative) narrative than<b>Zomedica</b>(NYSEAMERICAN:<b><u>ZOM</u></b>), the veterinary care specialist focusing on diagnostics platforms. Previously driven by intense meme pressure, ZOM stock found itself providing blistering returns before it all went sour.</p>\n<p>Unlike other meme trades that made folks scratch their heads, Zomedica at least commanded a credible bullish theory. As<i>YPulse.com</i>pointed out one year ago,76% of millennials are pet owners(or pet parents to use the common lexicon). Amid this demographic, more than half reported they have dogs and 35% stated they have cats. So, just on a numbers basis, ZOM stock looks promising.</p>\n<p>Another encouraging factor? YPulse reports that millennials represent the largest living generation. Also, considering that they’re also thelargest generation in the U.S. workforce, just do the simple deductive exercise. Millennials are making money, with many in or entering their prime earning years. Combined with their youth, ZOM stock potentially has a long pathway of profitability.</p>\n<p>So, why has Zomedica been so disappointing over the last six months? During this period, ZOM stock shed nearly 70%, which is disastrous no matter how you look at it.<i>InvestorPlace</i>contributor Muslim Farooque clearly picked up on the crimson tone of Zomedica shares, blaming the underlying company’s“poor financial performance.”</p>\n<p>Specifically, Farooque warned about supply-side troubles, noting that “CEO Robert Cohen highlighted the troubles in ramping up the commercial launch of Truforma in the second-quarter update.” Furthermore, my colleague explained that Cohen “associated the supply-side weaknesses with its partners. Itsdistribution partner,&nbsp;Miller Veterinary Supply&nbsp;was acquired by&nbsp;Patterson Companies&nbsp;recently. The unexpected sale of its key distributor has compelled the company to alter its sales strategy.”</p>\n<p>Therefore, while not helpful in the near term, I think there’s a more worrying longer-term headwind to consider.</p>\n<p><b>Economic Forces May Put ZOM Stock in a Bind</b></p>\n<p>Admittedly, any pet-based equity unit is likely to have strong investor enthusiasm because of the powerful millennial catalyst. But what prospective buyers of ZOM stock must be aware of is that such catalysts do not operate in a vacuum and are far from invulnerable to outside pressures.</p>\n<p>For instance, YPulse states that “Over two in five 16-34-year-old pet owners say that they think of their pets as their kids, and the same number say that spending more time at home [due to the pandemic] has made them closer with their pet.”</p>\n<p>That said, how could anyone be bearish about ZOM stock with that kind of consumer bullishness? Easy. The survey likely bakes in the assumption of normal times ahead once the public health crisis fades. But the real question you should be asking is this: what happens if we never go back to normal?</p>\n<p>In 2017,<i>NBC News</i>printed an interesting headline: “One Big Reason Millennials Are Buying Homes? For Their Dogs.” A Harris Poll on behalf of SunTrust Mortgage “found that 33 percent of millennial home buyers’ decision to buy a home wasdriven chiefly by their dog. Furry friends outranked wedding bells (25 percent cited marriage as their top motivator for buying a home) and kids, too (only 19 percent said birth of a child was their prime incentive).”</p>\n<p>On an initial reading, that sounds very lucrative for ZOM stock. But again, researchers conducted this poll in 2017. We’re living in far different circumstances right now.</p>\n<p>From the time<i>NBC News</i>published its report to May 2021, the S&amp;P/Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price Indexjumped nearly 32%. Homes are simply not affordable right now, particularly for those pet-loving millennials.</p>\n<p>Now, it’s clear that young people are interesting home ownership. If so, something’s got to give.</p>\n<p><b>Cost Cutting Is Where It Hurts</b></p>\n<p>I’m not suggesting that millennials will abandon their pets like many people did during the Great Recession. Then again, when push comes to shove under another economic crisis, you can’t take this scenario completely off the board.</p>\n<p>But a more realistic outcome is that millennials will simply start to cut back on their expenses. Veterinary care might be one of those items. In fact, this worrying trend for ZOM stock is panning out according to data from the American Pet Products Association.</p>\n<p>“Of the four segments that the APPA covers,vet care and product sales have risen the leastin terms of YOY growth,” I wrote in July.</p>\n<p>So, even if the meme traders manage to pull another near-term blast for ZOM stock, I’d be careful. Unless you see robust economic times ahead, the surrounding pieces for Zomedica are not aligning favorably.</p>","source":"lsy1606302653667","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Why Economic Pressure May Build Against Zomedica</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWhy Economic Pressure May Build Against Zomedica\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-09-08 14:42 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://investorplace.com/2021/09/economic-pressure-building-zom-stock/><strong>InvestorPlace</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>ZOM stock doesn’t trade in a vacuum unfortunately.\n\nOn the front-facing side of things, you might not find a better no-brainer (albeit highly speculative) narrative thanZomedica(NYSEAMERICAN:ZOM), the...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://investorplace.com/2021/09/economic-pressure-building-zom-stock/\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"ZOM":"Zomedica Pharmaceuticals Corp."},"source_url":"https://investorplace.com/2021/09/economic-pressure-building-zom-stock/","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1198596381","content_text":"ZOM stock doesn’t trade in a vacuum unfortunately.\n\nOn the front-facing side of things, you might not find a better no-brainer (albeit highly speculative) narrative thanZomedica(NYSEAMERICAN:ZOM), the veterinary care specialist focusing on diagnostics platforms. Previously driven by intense meme pressure, ZOM stock found itself providing blistering returns before it all went sour.\nUnlike other meme trades that made folks scratch their heads, Zomedica at least commanded a credible bullish theory. AsYPulse.compointed out one year ago,76% of millennials are pet owners(or pet parents to use the common lexicon). Amid this demographic, more than half reported they have dogs and 35% stated they have cats. So, just on a numbers basis, ZOM stock looks promising.\nAnother encouraging factor? YPulse reports that millennials represent the largest living generation. Also, considering that they’re also thelargest generation in the U.S. workforce, just do the simple deductive exercise. Millennials are making money, with many in or entering their prime earning years. Combined with their youth, ZOM stock potentially has a long pathway of profitability.\nSo, why has Zomedica been so disappointing over the last six months? During this period, ZOM stock shed nearly 70%, which is disastrous no matter how you look at it.InvestorPlacecontributor Muslim Farooque clearly picked up on the crimson tone of Zomedica shares, blaming the underlying company’s“poor financial performance.”\nSpecifically, Farooque warned about supply-side troubles, noting that “CEO Robert Cohen highlighted the troubles in ramping up the commercial launch of Truforma in the second-quarter update.” Furthermore, my colleague explained that Cohen “associated the supply-side weaknesses with its partners. Itsdistribution partner, Miller Veterinary Supply was acquired by Patterson Companies recently. The unexpected sale of its key distributor has compelled the company to alter its sales strategy.”\nTherefore, while not helpful in the near term, I think there’s a more worrying longer-term headwind to consider.\nEconomic Forces May Put ZOM Stock in a Bind\nAdmittedly, any pet-based equity unit is likely to have strong investor enthusiasm because of the powerful millennial catalyst. But what prospective buyers of ZOM stock must be aware of is that such catalysts do not operate in a vacuum and are far from invulnerable to outside pressures.\nFor instance, YPulse states that “Over two in five 16-34-year-old pet owners say that they think of their pets as their kids, and the same number say that spending more time at home [due to the pandemic] has made them closer with their pet.”\nThat said, how could anyone be bearish about ZOM stock with that kind of consumer bullishness? Easy. The survey likely bakes in the assumption of normal times ahead once the public health crisis fades. But the real question you should be asking is this: what happens if we never go back to normal?\nIn 2017,NBC Newsprinted an interesting headline: “One Big Reason Millennials Are Buying Homes? For Their Dogs.” A Harris Poll on behalf of SunTrust Mortgage “found that 33 percent of millennial home buyers’ decision to buy a home wasdriven chiefly by their dog. Furry friends outranked wedding bells (25 percent cited marriage as their top motivator for buying a home) and kids, too (only 19 percent said birth of a child was their prime incentive).”\nOn an initial reading, that sounds very lucrative for ZOM stock. But again, researchers conducted this poll in 2017. We’re living in far different circumstances right now.\nFrom the timeNBC Newspublished its report to May 2021, the S&P/Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price Indexjumped nearly 32%. Homes are simply not affordable right now, particularly for those pet-loving millennials.\nNow, it’s clear that young people are interesting home ownership. If so, something’s got to give.\nCost Cutting Is Where It Hurts\nI’m not suggesting that millennials will abandon their pets like many people did during the Great Recession. Then again, when push comes to shove under another economic crisis, you can’t take this scenario completely off the board.\nBut a more realistic outcome is that millennials will simply start to cut back on their expenses. Veterinary care might be one of those items. In fact, this worrying trend for ZOM stock is panning out according to data from the American Pet Products Association.\n“Of the four segments that the APPA covers,vet care and product sales have risen the leastin terms of YOY growth,” I wrote in July.\nSo, even if the meme traders manage to pull another near-term blast for ZOM stock, I’d be careful. Unless you see robust economic times ahead, the surrounding pieces for Zomedica are not aligning favorably.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":252,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":170803792,"gmtCreate":1626416772516,"gmtModify":1633926926395,"author":{"id":"3583057062119819","authorId":"3583057062119819","name":"jefftt","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6bd621880c70630553bf57418e846287","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3583057062119819","authorIdStr":"3583057062119819"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"nice!&nbsp; nice! nice!","listText":"nice!&nbsp; nice! nice!","text":"nice! nice! nice!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/170803792","repostId":"2151573133","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2151573133","kind":"highlight","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Reuters.com brings you the latest news from around the world, covering breaking news in markets, business, politics, entertainment and technology","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Reuters","id":"1036604489","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/443ce19704621c837795676028cec868"},"pubTimestamp":1626379249,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2151573133?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-07-16 04:00","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Nasdaq ends lower as investors sell Big Tech","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2151573133","media":"Reuters","summary":"July 15  - The Nasdaq ended lower on Thursday, pulled down by Apple, Amazon and other Big Tech companies as a fall in weekly jobless claims data fed investor concerns about a recent inflation spike.Amazon, Apple, Tesla and $Facebook$all fell. Nvidia tumbled around 4%.The S&P 500 technology sector index ended a four-day winning streak. Earlier this week, investors' favor for heavyweight growth stocks pushed the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq to record highs.The S&P 500 energy sector index fell more than ","content":"<ul>\n <li>U.S. weekly jobless claims fall to 16-month low</li>\n <li>Tech sector ends four-day winning streak</li>\n</ul>\n<p>July 15 (Reuters) - The Nasdaq ended lower on Thursday, pulled down by Apple, Amazon and other Big Tech companies as a fall in weekly jobless claims data fed investor concerns about a recent inflation spike.</p>\n<p>Amazon, Apple,&nbsp;Tesla and <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/FB\">Facebook</a>all fell. Nvidia&nbsp;tumbled around 4%.</p>\n<p>The S&amp;P 500 technology sector index ended a four-day winning streak. Earlier this week, investors' favor for heavyweight growth stocks pushed the S&amp;P 500 and the Nasdaq to record highs.</p>\n<p>The S&amp;P 500 energy sector index fell more than 1% and tracked a drop in crude prices on expectations of more supply after a compromise agreement between leading OPEC producers.</p>\n<p>Fresh data showed the number of Americans filing new claims for unemployment benefits fell last week to a 16-month low, while worker shortages and bottlenecks in the supply chain have frustrated efforts by businesses to ramp up production to meet strong demand for goods and services.</p>\n<p>Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell told lawmakers he anticipated the shortages and high inflation would abate. Yet many investors still worry that more sustained inflation could lead to a sooner-than-expected tightening of monetary policy.</p>\n<p>\"People are very nervous and concerned about inflation, tax rates and the (2022 midterm) election. Those three things are very much on people's minds,\" said 6 Meridian Chief Investment Officer Andrew Mies, describing recent phone calls with his firm's clients.</p>\n<p>Unofficially, the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 54.52 points, or 0.16%, to 34,987.75, the S&amp;P 500 lost 14.29 points, or 0.33%, to 4,360.01 and the Nasdaq Composite&nbsp;dropped 101.82 points, or 0.7%, to 14,543.13.</p>\n<p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MSTLW\">Morgan Stanley</a> dipped as much as 1.2% after it beat expectations for quarterly profit, getting a boost from record investment banking activity even as the trading bonanza that supported results in recent quarters slowed down.</p>\n<p>Second-quarter reporting season kicked off this week, with the four largest U.S. lenders - Wells Fargo &amp; Co , $Bank of America Corp(BAC-N)$ , $Citigroup Inc(C-N)$ and JPMorgan Chase &amp; Co - posting a combined $33 billion in profits, but also highlighting the industry's sensitivity to low interest rates.</p>\n<p>Blackstone said late on Wednesday it would pay $2.2 billion for 9.9% stake in American International Group's life and retirement business. AIG and Blackstone both rallied.</p>\n<p>Johnson &amp; Johnson dipped after it voluntarily recalled five aerosol sunscreen products in the United States after detecting a cancer-causing chemical in some samples.</p>\n<p>(Reporting by Noel Randewich; Additional reporting by Devik Jain and Shreyashi Sanyal in Bengaluru; Editing by Maju Samuel)</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Nasdaq ends lower as investors sell Big Tech</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nNasdaq ends lower as investors sell Big Tech\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1036604489\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/443ce19704621c837795676028cec868);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Reuters </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2021-07-16 04:00</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<ul>\n <li>U.S. weekly jobless claims fall to 16-month low</li>\n <li>Tech sector ends four-day winning streak</li>\n</ul>\n<p>July 15 (Reuters) - The Nasdaq ended lower on Thursday, pulled down by Apple, Amazon and other Big Tech companies as a fall in weekly jobless claims data fed investor concerns about a recent inflation spike.</p>\n<p>Amazon, Apple,&nbsp;Tesla and <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/FB\">Facebook</a>all fell. Nvidia&nbsp;tumbled around 4%.</p>\n<p>The S&amp;P 500 technology sector index ended a four-day winning streak. Earlier this week, investors' favor for heavyweight growth stocks pushed the S&amp;P 500 and the Nasdaq to record highs.</p>\n<p>The S&amp;P 500 energy sector index fell more than 1% and tracked a drop in crude prices on expectations of more supply after a compromise agreement between leading OPEC producers.</p>\n<p>Fresh data showed the number of Americans filing new claims for unemployment benefits fell last week to a 16-month low, while worker shortages and bottlenecks in the supply chain have frustrated efforts by businesses to ramp up production to meet strong demand for goods and services.</p>\n<p>Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell told lawmakers he anticipated the shortages and high inflation would abate. Yet many investors still worry that more sustained inflation could lead to a sooner-than-expected tightening of monetary policy.</p>\n<p>\"People are very nervous and concerned about inflation, tax rates and the (2022 midterm) election. Those three things are very much on people's minds,\" said 6 Meridian Chief Investment Officer Andrew Mies, describing recent phone calls with his firm's clients.</p>\n<p>Unofficially, the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 54.52 points, or 0.16%, to 34,987.75, the S&amp;P 500 lost 14.29 points, or 0.33%, to 4,360.01 and the Nasdaq Composite&nbsp;dropped 101.82 points, or 0.7%, to 14,543.13.</p>\n<p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MSTLW\">Morgan Stanley</a> dipped as much as 1.2% after it beat expectations for quarterly profit, getting a boost from record investment banking activity even as the trading bonanza that supported results in recent quarters slowed down.</p>\n<p>Second-quarter reporting season kicked off this week, with the four largest U.S. lenders - Wells Fargo &amp; Co , $Bank of America Corp(BAC-N)$ , $Citigroup Inc(C-N)$ and JPMorgan Chase &amp; Co - posting a combined $33 billion in profits, but also highlighting the industry's sensitivity to low interest rates.</p>\n<p>Blackstone said late on Wednesday it would pay $2.2 billion for 9.9% stake in American International Group's life and retirement business. AIG and Blackstone both rallied.</p>\n<p>Johnson &amp; Johnson dipped after it voluntarily recalled five aerosol sunscreen products in the United States after detecting a cancer-causing chemical in some samples.</p>\n<p>(Reporting by Noel Randewich; Additional reporting by Devik Jain and Shreyashi Sanyal in Bengaluru; Editing by Maju Samuel)</p>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"161125":"标普500","513500":"标普500ETF",".DJI":"道琼斯","OEF":"标普100指数ETF-iShares","BAC":"美国银行","DOG":"道指反向ETF","QQQ":"纳指100ETF",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","C":"花旗","OEX":"标普100","AMZN":"亚马逊",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","TSLA":"特斯拉","QID":"纳指两倍做空ETF","QNETCN":"纳斯达克中美互联网老虎指数","BX":"黑石","SH":"标普500反向ETF","TQQQ":"纳指三倍做多ETF","MS":"摩根士丹利","DJX":"1/100道琼斯","JPM":"摩根大通","JNJ":"强生","IVV":"标普500指数ETF","WFC":"富国银行","DXD":"道指两倍做空ETF","PSQ":"纳指反向ETF","QLD":"纳指两倍做多ETF","UPRO":"三倍做多标普500ETF","NVDA":"英伟达","UDOW":"道指三倍做多ETF-ProShares","03086":"华夏纳指","SSO":"两倍做多标普500ETF","SDS":"两倍做空标普500ETF","AAPL":"苹果","SDOW":"道指三倍做空ETF-ProShares","SPXU":"三倍做空标普500ETF","DDM":"道指两倍做多ETF","AIG":"美国国际集团","SQQQ":"纳指三倍做空ETF","09086":"华夏纳指-U"},"is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2151573133","content_text":"U.S. weekly jobless claims fall to 16-month low\nTech sector ends four-day winning streak\n\nJuly 15 (Reuters) - The Nasdaq ended lower on Thursday, pulled down by Apple, Amazon and other Big Tech companies as a fall in weekly jobless claims data fed investor concerns about a recent inflation spike.\nAmazon, Apple, Tesla and Facebookall fell. Nvidia tumbled around 4%.\nThe S&P 500 technology sector index ended a four-day winning streak. Earlier this week, investors' favor for heavyweight growth stocks pushed the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq to record highs.\nThe S&P 500 energy sector index fell more than 1% and tracked a drop in crude prices on expectations of more supply after a compromise agreement between leading OPEC producers.\nFresh data showed the number of Americans filing new claims for unemployment benefits fell last week to a 16-month low, while worker shortages and bottlenecks in the supply chain have frustrated efforts by businesses to ramp up production to meet strong demand for goods and services.\nFederal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell told lawmakers he anticipated the shortages and high inflation would abate. Yet many investors still worry that more sustained inflation could lead to a sooner-than-expected tightening of monetary policy.\n\"People are very nervous and concerned about inflation, tax rates and the (2022 midterm) election. Those three things are very much on people's minds,\" said 6 Meridian Chief Investment Officer Andrew Mies, describing recent phone calls with his firm's clients.\nUnofficially, the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 54.52 points, or 0.16%, to 34,987.75, the S&P 500 lost 14.29 points, or 0.33%, to 4,360.01 and the Nasdaq Composite dropped 101.82 points, or 0.7%, to 14,543.13.\nMorgan Stanley dipped as much as 1.2% after it beat expectations for quarterly profit, getting a boost from record investment banking activity even as the trading bonanza that supported results in recent quarters slowed down.\nSecond-quarter reporting season kicked off this week, with the four largest U.S. lenders - Wells Fargo & Co , $Bank of America Corp(BAC-N)$ , $Citigroup Inc(C-N)$ and JPMorgan Chase & Co - posting a combined $33 billion in profits, but also highlighting the industry's sensitivity to low interest rates.\nBlackstone said late on Wednesday it would pay $2.2 billion for 9.9% stake in American International Group's life and retirement business. AIG and Blackstone both rallied.\nJohnson & Johnson dipped after it voluntarily recalled five aerosol sunscreen products in the United States after detecting a cancer-causing chemical in some samples.\n(Reporting by Noel Randewich; Additional reporting by Devik Jain and Shreyashi Sanyal in Bengaluru; Editing by Maju Samuel)","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":383,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":170800744,"gmtCreate":1626416576688,"gmtModify":1633926927087,"author":{"id":"3583057062119819","authorId":"3583057062119819","name":"jefftt","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6bd621880c70630553bf57418e846287","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3583057062119819","authorIdStr":"3583057062119819"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"nice","listText":"nice","text":"nice","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/170800744","repostId":"1189921948","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1189921948","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1626414777,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1189921948?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-07-16 13:52","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Apple In 2025: DCF Model Update","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1189921948","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Summary\n\nThis is an update to my Apple revenue and DCF model published about a month ago, taking int","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p>\n<ul>\n <li>This is an update to my Apple revenue and DCF model published about a month ago, taking into account a recent rumor from Mark Gurman at Bloomberg.</li>\n <li>The rumor is that Apple’s initial iPhone order for 2022 is up 20% from its blowout 2021. This would represent the kind of back-to-back performance iPhone hasn’t seen since 2014-2015.</li>\n <li>Apple’s share price has gotten ahead of its cash flows, and even in this rumor scenario, there is not a lot of fair value upside in the next year.</li>\n <li>My recommendations remain unchanged.</li>\n</ul>\n<p><b>We’re Gonna Need a Bigger Boat</b></p>\n<p>I recently published avery long articleon my long term Apple(NASDAQ:AAPL)thesis. You can be thankful that I am not here to repeat those 7,000 words. Included in the article was a 2025 DCF model with four scenarios. Because of this chart, each scenario assumed iPhone revenue would be down from fiscal 2021’s blowout in 2022 and 2023:</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f7f8aedd681fd593d93dddb8cc729aac\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"381\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>In that chart, you can pretty clearly see the 3-year cycle, with 2015, 2018 and 2021 as the tentpole years. But then Apple rumor millchurned this outon Tuesday this week:</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0a91eb20e82f9598a938e67d8d3a97d4\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"194\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p><i>Bloomberg screenshot</i></p>\n<p>Bloomberg’s Mark Gurman has been a pretty reliable source of Apple gossip, so we should take this as a serious possibility. I am estimating iPhone will surge 37% YoY in fiscal 2021. To bump up another 20% in 2022 would be the kind of back-to-back performance iPhone hasn’t seen since 2014-2015.</p>\n<p>To be clear:</p>\n<ul>\n <li>The specific rumor is that Apple has bumped up their initial order from 75 million to 90 million.</li>\n <li>This is a rumor, albeit from a reliable source, and may not even be true, or be a misinterpretation of other information.</li>\n <li>Even if true, there can be other reasons besides increased anticipated demand for Apple wanting to increase the initial order. For example, they may need capacity or supply for something else in early calendar 2022, and they are pushing forward iPhone production to clear the decks.</li>\n</ul>\n<p>But putting that aside, let’s look at what happens to the DCF and revenue models if iPhone sees a 20% YoY gain in 2022 rather than the -6% drop I was modeling into my best case scenario. The drops in the previous second years of the cycle were -12% in 2016 and -14% in 2019. A 20% increase would be a huge shift from the pattern.</p>\n<p><b>Five Scenarios</b></p>\n<p>Models of the future are generally an expression of the author’s biases with math laid over it. My number one recommendation for consumers of these sorts of things is skepticism and a thorough frisking of assumptions. The recentTesla model from ARK Investmentis a cautionary tale for everyone. There areExcel worksheetson GitHub with the model, and all the major assumptions are modifiable. Each scenario is a separate worksheet.</p>\n<p>Let’s first look at some assumptions common to the original four scenarios:</p>\n<ul>\n <li>iPhone continues to exhibit a 3-year cyclical pattern. Fiscal 2021 is the high year, so 2024 is the next one.</li>\n <li>Legal and regulatory action trims App Store and thus Services growth a little.</li>\n <li>Wearables, etc. remains on its strong growth path on Apple Watch, AirPods, AirTags, and at least one new product category, a VR headset in calendar 2022.</li>\n <li>Mac and iPad return roughly to their pre-pandemic patterns. Like all PC makers, Apple saw abig surgefrom work-from-home.</li>\n <li>Fiscal 2021 is half-reported, so all scenarios assume that it will complete along Apple’s average seasonal pattern from 2016-2019.</li>\n <li>Other assumptions are in the Excel sheets.</li>\n</ul>\n<p>Scenarios:</p>\n<ol>\n <li>Large, had been most optimistic case, but now we have a larger one based on this rumor.</li>\n <li>Medium, my base case.</li>\n <li>Small is what Apple looks like if they come off the growth rates of the last 4-6 years.</li>\n <li>Tiny is the same as Small through 2023, and then we’re going to throw some real problems at Apple.</li>\n <li>Gurman Rumor is the same as Large, but with the new inflated iPhone projections.</li>\n</ol>\n<p>In Medium:</p>\n<ul>\n <li>We’ll model the iPhone cycle with the average growth rates of the 2015 and 2018 cycles.</li>\n <li>Services growth comes off of 2016-2020 trajectory by 2 pp because of legal or regulatory action on App Store.</li>\n <li>The rest, as above.</li>\n</ul>\n<p>Large and Small will, respectively, add and subtract from these growth rates in Medium. In addition, Large assumes:</p>\n<ul>\n <li>Boost in fiscal 2022-2025 for iPhone on 5G adoption.</li>\n <li>Apple Silicon Macs gain Apple some PC market share.</li>\n <li>Apple's AR glasses come out in the middle of fiscal 2025. To be clear, I view that as an unlikely timeline, but it does not have a large effect on the model since it comes 6 months from the end of our interval.</li>\n</ul>\n<p>Tiny is a special event-based scenario where we will throw the two worst plausible scenarios we can at Apple. It starts with a huge reduction in App Store revenues due to antitrust action in the US and Europe at the end of fiscal 2023, and getting kicked out of China at the end of fiscal 2024. The former will be modeled as a sharp downturn in Services revenue in fiscal 2024. The China expulsion will lead to a 15% drop in top line revenue, and a decrease in products gross margin by 5 pp in 2025. I don’t view either of these as particularly likely, but this is the worst it can get.</p>\n<p><b>Apple Stock in 2025</b></p>\n<p>This table summarizes the results of the model scenarios:</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/627cf8bb56d0111fd73bb08563552c10\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"198\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>The interesting result to me is that the Gurman scenario does not boost cash flows and fair value as much as I expected. This is an artifact of the growth of the Services and Wearables, etc. segments, now 30% of all Apple revenue:</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7e7c93e5533b009f089b91803a1f3a2f\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"364\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>Even with iPhone’s extraordinary fiscal 2021, up 37% YoY by my estimate, iPhone was still 53% of Apple’s total net sales, down from 66% in 2015, the peak. While still the biggest thing on Apple’s tables, it is not nearly as important to consolidated Apple’s income statement as it was even 3 years ago, when it was 62% of Apple net sales.</p>\n<p>This chart tracks the growth of fair value over the course of the models.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/71adf9785e904740f3eaae349f1fd8b8\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"353\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>The rest of Apple has become so big that even adding $50 billion to 2022 iPhone sales going from the Large scenario to the Gurman Rumor scenario only raises free cash flow and the share price by about 8%. In the end, it represents a 3.1 pp increase in annual fair value appreciation over Large by 2025, but almost 10 pp per year over Medium, which remains my base case until we have a little more clarity on this rumor.</p>\n<p>So the overall conclusion from my original article remains. Likely a lot of the gains of 2021 and 2022 are already baked into Apple’s price, especially since it is up 17% since the original article published in June. Since the beginning of fiscal 2020, Apple share price is up 140%, which has already captured a lot of the cash flow growth. Most likely fiscal 2023 is where we see it break out again.</p>\n<p>But if Gurman’s rumor is correct, the breakout will come sooner, likely after they report Q4 2021 around the end of October, and give us guidance for Q1 2022. If that is much higher than expectations, that will likely represent a new leg up in share price. But Apple share price has appreciated so much already, even in the Gurman Rumor scenario that doesn’t represent a huge change in fair value over Thursday’s close:</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e94838bde5f985f7a186dc7a4bdb1cad\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"353\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>So my recommendations remain:</p>\n<ul>\n <li>If your time horizon for Apple is short, now is a good time to take profits.</li>\n <li>But if your time horizon is long like mine, there is no other company with the range of long-term strengths Apple has, and a cash-flow machine which will eventually catch up to the inflated price.</li>\n</ul>\n<p>For more details on those long term strengths and that cash-flow machine, see the original June article.</p>","source":"seekingalpha","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Apple In 2025: DCF Model Update</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nApple In 2025: DCF Model Update\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-07-16 13:52 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4439401-apple-in-2025-dcf-model-update><strong>seekingalpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Summary\n\nThis is an update to my Apple revenue and DCF model published about a month ago, taking into account a recent rumor from Mark Gurman at Bloomberg.\nThe rumor is that Apple’s initial iPhone ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4439401-apple-in-2025-dcf-model-update\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AAPL":"苹果"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4439401-apple-in-2025-dcf-model-update","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/5a36db9d73b4222bc376d24ccc48c8a4","article_id":"1189921948","content_text":"Summary\n\nThis is an update to my Apple revenue and DCF model published about a month ago, taking into account a recent rumor from Mark Gurman at Bloomberg.\nThe rumor is that Apple’s initial iPhone order for 2022 is up 20% from its blowout 2021. This would represent the kind of back-to-back performance iPhone hasn’t seen since 2014-2015.\nApple’s share price has gotten ahead of its cash flows, and even in this rumor scenario, there is not a lot of fair value upside in the next year.\nMy recommendations remain unchanged.\n\nWe’re Gonna Need a Bigger Boat\nI recently published avery long articleon my long term Apple(NASDAQ:AAPL)thesis. You can be thankful that I am not here to repeat those 7,000 words. Included in the article was a 2025 DCF model with four scenarios. Because of this chart, each scenario assumed iPhone revenue would be down from fiscal 2021’s blowout in 2022 and 2023:\n\nIn that chart, you can pretty clearly see the 3-year cycle, with 2015, 2018 and 2021 as the tentpole years. But then Apple rumor millchurned this outon Tuesday this week:\n\nBloomberg screenshot\nBloomberg’s Mark Gurman has been a pretty reliable source of Apple gossip, so we should take this as a serious possibility. I am estimating iPhone will surge 37% YoY in fiscal 2021. To bump up another 20% in 2022 would be the kind of back-to-back performance iPhone hasn’t seen since 2014-2015.\nTo be clear:\n\nThe specific rumor is that Apple has bumped up their initial order from 75 million to 90 million.\nThis is a rumor, albeit from a reliable source, and may not even be true, or be a misinterpretation of other information.\nEven if true, there can be other reasons besides increased anticipated demand for Apple wanting to increase the initial order. For example, they may need capacity or supply for something else in early calendar 2022, and they are pushing forward iPhone production to clear the decks.\n\nBut putting that aside, let’s look at what happens to the DCF and revenue models if iPhone sees a 20% YoY gain in 2022 rather than the -6% drop I was modeling into my best case scenario. The drops in the previous second years of the cycle were -12% in 2016 and -14% in 2019. A 20% increase would be a huge shift from the pattern.\nFive Scenarios\nModels of the future are generally an expression of the author’s biases with math laid over it. My number one recommendation for consumers of these sorts of things is skepticism and a thorough frisking of assumptions. The recentTesla model from ARK Investmentis a cautionary tale for everyone. There areExcel worksheetson GitHub with the model, and all the major assumptions are modifiable. Each scenario is a separate worksheet.\nLet’s first look at some assumptions common to the original four scenarios:\n\niPhone continues to exhibit a 3-year cyclical pattern. Fiscal 2021 is the high year, so 2024 is the next one.\nLegal and regulatory action trims App Store and thus Services growth a little.\nWearables, etc. remains on its strong growth path on Apple Watch, AirPods, AirTags, and at least one new product category, a VR headset in calendar 2022.\nMac and iPad return roughly to their pre-pandemic patterns. Like all PC makers, Apple saw abig surgefrom work-from-home.\nFiscal 2021 is half-reported, so all scenarios assume that it will complete along Apple’s average seasonal pattern from 2016-2019.\nOther assumptions are in the Excel sheets.\n\nScenarios:\n\nLarge, had been most optimistic case, but now we have a larger one based on this rumor.\nMedium, my base case.\nSmall is what Apple looks like if they come off the growth rates of the last 4-6 years.\nTiny is the same as Small through 2023, and then we’re going to throw some real problems at Apple.\nGurman Rumor is the same as Large, but with the new inflated iPhone projections.\n\nIn Medium:\n\nWe’ll model the iPhone cycle with the average growth rates of the 2015 and 2018 cycles.\nServices growth comes off of 2016-2020 trajectory by 2 pp because of legal or regulatory action on App Store.\nThe rest, as above.\n\nLarge and Small will, respectively, add and subtract from these growth rates in Medium. In addition, Large assumes:\n\nBoost in fiscal 2022-2025 for iPhone on 5G adoption.\nApple Silicon Macs gain Apple some PC market share.\nApple's AR glasses come out in the middle of fiscal 2025. To be clear, I view that as an unlikely timeline, but it does not have a large effect on the model since it comes 6 months from the end of our interval.\n\nTiny is a special event-based scenario where we will throw the two worst plausible scenarios we can at Apple. It starts with a huge reduction in App Store revenues due to antitrust action in the US and Europe at the end of fiscal 2023, and getting kicked out of China at the end of fiscal 2024. The former will be modeled as a sharp downturn in Services revenue in fiscal 2024. The China expulsion will lead to a 15% drop in top line revenue, and a decrease in products gross margin by 5 pp in 2025. I don’t view either of these as particularly likely, but this is the worst it can get.\nApple Stock in 2025\nThis table summarizes the results of the model scenarios:\n\nThe interesting result to me is that the Gurman scenario does not boost cash flows and fair value as much as I expected. This is an artifact of the growth of the Services and Wearables, etc. segments, now 30% of all Apple revenue:\n\nEven with iPhone’s extraordinary fiscal 2021, up 37% YoY by my estimate, iPhone was still 53% of Apple’s total net sales, down from 66% in 2015, the peak. While still the biggest thing on Apple’s tables, it is not nearly as important to consolidated Apple’s income statement as it was even 3 years ago, when it was 62% of Apple net sales.\nThis chart tracks the growth of fair value over the course of the models.\n\nThe rest of Apple has become so big that even adding $50 billion to 2022 iPhone sales going from the Large scenario to the Gurman Rumor scenario only raises free cash flow and the share price by about 8%. In the end, it represents a 3.1 pp increase in annual fair value appreciation over Large by 2025, but almost 10 pp per year over Medium, which remains my base case until we have a little more clarity on this rumor.\nSo the overall conclusion from my original article remains. Likely a lot of the gains of 2021 and 2022 are already baked into Apple’s price, especially since it is up 17% since the original article published in June. Since the beginning of fiscal 2020, Apple share price is up 140%, which has already captured a lot of the cash flow growth. Most likely fiscal 2023 is where we see it break out again.\nBut if Gurman’s rumor is correct, the breakout will come sooner, likely after they report Q4 2021 around the end of October, and give us guidance for Q1 2022. If that is much higher than expectations, that will likely represent a new leg up in share price. But Apple share price has appreciated so much already, even in the Gurman Rumor scenario that doesn’t represent a huge change in fair value over Thursday’s close:\n\nSo my recommendations remain:\n\nIf your time horizon for Apple is short, now is a good time to take profits.\nBut if your time horizon is long like mine, there is no other company with the range of long-term strengths Apple has, and a cash-flow machine which will eventually catch up to the inflated price.\n\nFor more details on those long term strengths and that cash-flow machine, see the original June article.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":131,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":170809735,"gmtCreate":1626416643927,"gmtModify":1633926926862,"author":{"id":"3583057062119819","authorId":"3583057062119819","name":"jefftt","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6bd621880c70630553bf57418e846287","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3583057062119819","authorIdStr":"3583057062119819"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"great","listText":"great","text":"great","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/170809735","repostId":"1176367685","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1176367685","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1626412781,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1176367685?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-07-16 13:19","market":"us","language":"en","title":"No evidence yet that it’s time for a 3rd booster, says former FDA director","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1176367685","media":"cnbc","summary":"KEY POINTS\n\nThere’s not enough evidence that booster vaccines are needed for now, said Norman Baylor","content":"<div>\n<p>KEY POINTS\n\nThere’s not enough evidence that booster vaccines are needed for now, said Norman Baylor, president and chief executive officer of Biologics Consulting.\n“We’re just not there yet … we don’...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.cnbc.com/2021/07/16/not-prudent-to-deploy-vaccine-boosters-at-this-point-ex-fda-director.html\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n","source":"cnbc_highlight","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>No evidence yet that it’s time for a 3rd booster, says former FDA director</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nNo evidence yet that it’s time for a 3rd booster, says former FDA director\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-07-16 13:19 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.cnbc.com/2021/07/16/not-prudent-to-deploy-vaccine-boosters-at-this-point-ex-fda-director.html><strong>cnbc</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>KEY POINTS\n\nThere’s not enough evidence that booster vaccines are needed for now, said Norman Baylor, president and chief executive officer of Biologics Consulting.\n“We’re just not there yet … we don’...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.cnbc.com/2021/07/16/not-prudent-to-deploy-vaccine-boosters-at-this-point-ex-fda-director.html\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"BNTX":"BioNTech SE","PFE":"辉瑞"},"source_url":"https://www.cnbc.com/2021/07/16/not-prudent-to-deploy-vaccine-boosters-at-this-point-ex-fda-director.html","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/72bb72e1b84c09fca865c6dcb1bbcd16","article_id":"1176367685","content_text":"KEY POINTS\n\nThere’s not enough evidence that booster vaccines are needed for now, said Norman Baylor, president and chief executive officer of Biologics Consulting.\n“We’re just not there yet … we don’t have the evidence that it’s time for a booster,” he said, adding that in future, there could be new variants that render current vaccines ineffective or much less effective.\nPfizer said on July 8 that it is developing a Covid booster shot, or third dose, to target the highly transmissible delta variant.\n\nThere isn’t enough evidence right now to show that booster shots for Covid vaccines are needed, according to a former FDA director.\n“Being prepared to make boosters is a good thing, but we really don’t have … evidence, at least in the United States, where we’re seeing vaccine failures or we’re seeing waning in immunity, such that it’s time to deploy a booster,” said Norman Baylor, who was previously with the U.S. Food and Drug Administration’s office of vaccines research and review.\nPharmaceutical firm Pfizerisdeveloping a Covid booster shot, or third dose, to target the highly transmissible delta variant,which has become the dominant strain in many countries including the U.S.\nThe Centers for Disease Control and Prevention and FDA also said last week in a joint statement that“Americans who have been fully vaccinated won’t need a booster dose at this time.”\nPfizer met with U.S. officials on Mondayto make its case for a third shot.\nThe company worked with German companyBioNTechto develop a vaccine that consists of two doses given three weeks apart. It was given emergency use authorization by the World Health Organization in December.\nNo significant vaccine failure\nPfizer and BioNTech pointed to data fromIsrael’s health ministry that said there was decreased effectiveness in their vaccine,in terms of preventing infection and symptomatic disease.\nThe decline in efficacy coincided with the spread of the delta variant and the end of most Covid measures in Israel. The shot remains 93% effective in preventing hospitalizations and serious illness from Covid-19, the ministry reportedly said.\n\n The vaccine failures are really low at this time for the current vaccines that have been deployed. So until that shifts, I don’t think it would be prudent to deploy a booster dose.Norman BaylorBIOLOGICS CONSULTING CEO\n\nBut Baylor, who is currently president and chief executive officer of Biologics Consulting, said close monitoring has not revealed “significant vaccine failures” so far.\n“We’re just not seeing that now,” he told“Street Signs Asia”on Thursday.\nCovid cases are rising in the U.S. again, butdoctors say the increase in cases and hospitalizations are due to the delta variant spreading in unvaccinated populations.\n“The vaccine failures are really low at this time for the current vaccines that have been deployed. So until that shifts, I don’t think it would be prudent to deploy a booster dose,” Baylor said.\nHe said health agencies seem to be in agreement that a third dose is not needed.\n“We’re just not there yet … we don’t have the evidence that it’s time for a booster,” he said, adding that in future, there could be new variants that render current vaccines ineffective or much less effective.\nVaccine inequality\nRicher countries have been able to vaccinate large numbers of their population, while poorer countries lag behind.\nThe issue of vaccine disparity between regions needs to be addressed, Baylor said.\n“A pandemic itself, the definition is that it’s global,” he said, adding that he agrees with the World Health Organization that the crisis needs to be looked at from a global perspective.\n\n Some countries and regions are actually ordering millions of booster doses before other countries have had supplies to vaccinate their health workers and most vulnerable.Tedros Adhanom GhebreyesusDIRECTOR-GENERAL, WORLD HEALTH ORGANIZATION\n\nWHO Director-General Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus said Monday thatthe world is “in the midst of a growing two-track pandemic.”\n“Some countries and regions are actually ordering millions of booster doses before other countries have had supplies to vaccinate their health workers and most vulnerable,”he said during a press briefing, adding that the world ismaking “conscious choices” not to protect those who are most in need.\nData suggests the vaccines offer long-lasting immunity against severe and deadly Covid-19, he said.\n“The priority now must be to vaccinate those who have received no doses and protection,” the WHO chief said.\nBiotech companies like Pfizer-BioNTech andModerna, which developed another mRNA vaccine for Covid-19, need to “go all out” to channel supplies to places in need, including through the Covax vaccine distribution alliance, he added.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":488,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":170800610,"gmtCreate":1626416543330,"gmtModify":1633926927333,"author":{"id":"3583057062119819","authorId":"3583057062119819","name":"jefftt","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6bd621880c70630553bf57418e846287","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3583057062119819","authorIdStr":"3583057062119819"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"nice","listText":"nice","text":"nice","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/170800610","repostId":"1189921948","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1189921948","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1626414777,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1189921948?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-07-16 13:52","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Apple In 2025: DCF Model Update","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1189921948","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Summary\n\nThis is an update to my Apple revenue and DCF model published about a month ago, taking int","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p>\n<ul>\n <li>This is an update to my Apple revenue and DCF model published about a month ago, taking into account a recent rumor from Mark Gurman at Bloomberg.</li>\n <li>The rumor is that Apple’s initial iPhone order for 2022 is up 20% from its blowout 2021. This would represent the kind of back-to-back performance iPhone hasn’t seen since 2014-2015.</li>\n <li>Apple’s share price has gotten ahead of its cash flows, and even in this rumor scenario, there is not a lot of fair value upside in the next year.</li>\n <li>My recommendations remain unchanged.</li>\n</ul>\n<p><b>We’re Gonna Need a Bigger Boat</b></p>\n<p>I recently published avery long articleon my long term Apple(NASDAQ:AAPL)thesis. You can be thankful that I am not here to repeat those 7,000 words. Included in the article was a 2025 DCF model with four scenarios. Because of this chart, each scenario assumed iPhone revenue would be down from fiscal 2021’s blowout in 2022 and 2023:</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f7f8aedd681fd593d93dddb8cc729aac\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"381\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>In that chart, you can pretty clearly see the 3-year cycle, with 2015, 2018 and 2021 as the tentpole years. But then Apple rumor millchurned this outon Tuesday this week:</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0a91eb20e82f9598a938e67d8d3a97d4\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"194\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p><i>Bloomberg screenshot</i></p>\n<p>Bloomberg’s Mark Gurman has been a pretty reliable source of Apple gossip, so we should take this as a serious possibility. I am estimating iPhone will surge 37% YoY in fiscal 2021. To bump up another 20% in 2022 would be the kind of back-to-back performance iPhone hasn’t seen since 2014-2015.</p>\n<p>To be clear:</p>\n<ul>\n <li>The specific rumor is that Apple has bumped up their initial order from 75 million to 90 million.</li>\n <li>This is a rumor, albeit from a reliable source, and may not even be true, or be a misinterpretation of other information.</li>\n <li>Even if true, there can be other reasons besides increased anticipated demand for Apple wanting to increase the initial order. For example, they may need capacity or supply for something else in early calendar 2022, and they are pushing forward iPhone production to clear the decks.</li>\n</ul>\n<p>But putting that aside, let’s look at what happens to the DCF and revenue models if iPhone sees a 20% YoY gain in 2022 rather than the -6% drop I was modeling into my best case scenario. The drops in the previous second years of the cycle were -12% in 2016 and -14% in 2019. A 20% increase would be a huge shift from the pattern.</p>\n<p><b>Five Scenarios</b></p>\n<p>Models of the future are generally an expression of the author’s biases with math laid over it. My number one recommendation for consumers of these sorts of things is skepticism and a thorough frisking of assumptions. The recentTesla model from ARK Investmentis a cautionary tale for everyone. There areExcel worksheetson GitHub with the model, and all the major assumptions are modifiable. Each scenario is a separate worksheet.</p>\n<p>Let’s first look at some assumptions common to the original four scenarios:</p>\n<ul>\n <li>iPhone continues to exhibit a 3-year cyclical pattern. Fiscal 2021 is the high year, so 2024 is the next one.</li>\n <li>Legal and regulatory action trims App Store and thus Services growth a little.</li>\n <li>Wearables, etc. remains on its strong growth path on Apple Watch, AirPods, AirTags, and at least one new product category, a VR headset in calendar 2022.</li>\n <li>Mac and iPad return roughly to their pre-pandemic patterns. Like all PC makers, Apple saw abig surgefrom work-from-home.</li>\n <li>Fiscal 2021 is half-reported, so all scenarios assume that it will complete along Apple’s average seasonal pattern from 2016-2019.</li>\n <li>Other assumptions are in the Excel sheets.</li>\n</ul>\n<p>Scenarios:</p>\n<ol>\n <li>Large, had been most optimistic case, but now we have a larger one based on this rumor.</li>\n <li>Medium, my base case.</li>\n <li>Small is what Apple looks like if they come off the growth rates of the last 4-6 years.</li>\n <li>Tiny is the same as Small through 2023, and then we’re going to throw some real problems at Apple.</li>\n <li>Gurman Rumor is the same as Large, but with the new inflated iPhone projections.</li>\n</ol>\n<p>In Medium:</p>\n<ul>\n <li>We’ll model the iPhone cycle with the average growth rates of the 2015 and 2018 cycles.</li>\n <li>Services growth comes off of 2016-2020 trajectory by 2 pp because of legal or regulatory action on App Store.</li>\n <li>The rest, as above.</li>\n</ul>\n<p>Large and Small will, respectively, add and subtract from these growth rates in Medium. In addition, Large assumes:</p>\n<ul>\n <li>Boost in fiscal 2022-2025 for iPhone on 5G adoption.</li>\n <li>Apple Silicon Macs gain Apple some PC market share.</li>\n <li>Apple's AR glasses come out in the middle of fiscal 2025. To be clear, I view that as an unlikely timeline, but it does not have a large effect on the model since it comes 6 months from the end of our interval.</li>\n</ul>\n<p>Tiny is a special event-based scenario where we will throw the two worst plausible scenarios we can at Apple. It starts with a huge reduction in App Store revenues due to antitrust action in the US and Europe at the end of fiscal 2023, and getting kicked out of China at the end of fiscal 2024. The former will be modeled as a sharp downturn in Services revenue in fiscal 2024. The China expulsion will lead to a 15% drop in top line revenue, and a decrease in products gross margin by 5 pp in 2025. I don’t view either of these as particularly likely, but this is the worst it can get.</p>\n<p><b>Apple Stock in 2025</b></p>\n<p>This table summarizes the results of the model scenarios:</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/627cf8bb56d0111fd73bb08563552c10\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"198\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>The interesting result to me is that the Gurman scenario does not boost cash flows and fair value as much as I expected. This is an artifact of the growth of the Services and Wearables, etc. segments, now 30% of all Apple revenue:</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7e7c93e5533b009f089b91803a1f3a2f\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"364\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>Even with iPhone’s extraordinary fiscal 2021, up 37% YoY by my estimate, iPhone was still 53% of Apple’s total net sales, down from 66% in 2015, the peak. While still the biggest thing on Apple’s tables, it is not nearly as important to consolidated Apple’s income statement as it was even 3 years ago, when it was 62% of Apple net sales.</p>\n<p>This chart tracks the growth of fair value over the course of the models.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/71adf9785e904740f3eaae349f1fd8b8\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"353\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>The rest of Apple has become so big that even adding $50 billion to 2022 iPhone sales going from the Large scenario to the Gurman Rumor scenario only raises free cash flow and the share price by about 8%. In the end, it represents a 3.1 pp increase in annual fair value appreciation over Large by 2025, but almost 10 pp per year over Medium, which remains my base case until we have a little more clarity on this rumor.</p>\n<p>So the overall conclusion from my original article remains. Likely a lot of the gains of 2021 and 2022 are already baked into Apple’s price, especially since it is up 17% since the original article published in June. Since the beginning of fiscal 2020, Apple share price is up 140%, which has already captured a lot of the cash flow growth. Most likely fiscal 2023 is where we see it break out again.</p>\n<p>But if Gurman’s rumor is correct, the breakout will come sooner, likely after they report Q4 2021 around the end of October, and give us guidance for Q1 2022. If that is much higher than expectations, that will likely represent a new leg up in share price. But Apple share price has appreciated so much already, even in the Gurman Rumor scenario that doesn’t represent a huge change in fair value over Thursday’s close:</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e94838bde5f985f7a186dc7a4bdb1cad\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"353\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>So my recommendations remain:</p>\n<ul>\n <li>If your time horizon for Apple is short, now is a good time to take profits.</li>\n <li>But if your time horizon is long like mine, there is no other company with the range of long-term strengths Apple has, and a cash-flow machine which will eventually catch up to the inflated price.</li>\n</ul>\n<p>For more details on those long term strengths and that cash-flow machine, see the original June article.</p>","source":"seekingalpha","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Apple In 2025: DCF Model Update</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nApple In 2025: DCF Model Update\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-07-16 13:52 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4439401-apple-in-2025-dcf-model-update><strong>seekingalpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Summary\n\nThis is an update to my Apple revenue and DCF model published about a month ago, taking into account a recent rumor from Mark Gurman at Bloomberg.\nThe rumor is that Apple’s initial iPhone ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4439401-apple-in-2025-dcf-model-update\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AAPL":"苹果"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4439401-apple-in-2025-dcf-model-update","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/5a36db9d73b4222bc376d24ccc48c8a4","article_id":"1189921948","content_text":"Summary\n\nThis is an update to my Apple revenue and DCF model published about a month ago, taking into account a recent rumor from Mark Gurman at Bloomberg.\nThe rumor is that Apple’s initial iPhone order for 2022 is up 20% from its blowout 2021. This would represent the kind of back-to-back performance iPhone hasn’t seen since 2014-2015.\nApple’s share price has gotten ahead of its cash flows, and even in this rumor scenario, there is not a lot of fair value upside in the next year.\nMy recommendations remain unchanged.\n\nWe’re Gonna Need a Bigger Boat\nI recently published avery long articleon my long term Apple(NASDAQ:AAPL)thesis. You can be thankful that I am not here to repeat those 7,000 words. Included in the article was a 2025 DCF model with four scenarios. Because of this chart, each scenario assumed iPhone revenue would be down from fiscal 2021’s blowout in 2022 and 2023:\n\nIn that chart, you can pretty clearly see the 3-year cycle, with 2015, 2018 and 2021 as the tentpole years. But then Apple rumor millchurned this outon Tuesday this week:\n\nBloomberg screenshot\nBloomberg’s Mark Gurman has been a pretty reliable source of Apple gossip, so we should take this as a serious possibility. I am estimating iPhone will surge 37% YoY in fiscal 2021. To bump up another 20% in 2022 would be the kind of back-to-back performance iPhone hasn’t seen since 2014-2015.\nTo be clear:\n\nThe specific rumor is that Apple has bumped up their initial order from 75 million to 90 million.\nThis is a rumor, albeit from a reliable source, and may not even be true, or be a misinterpretation of other information.\nEven if true, there can be other reasons besides increased anticipated demand for Apple wanting to increase the initial order. For example, they may need capacity or supply for something else in early calendar 2022, and they are pushing forward iPhone production to clear the decks.\n\nBut putting that aside, let’s look at what happens to the DCF and revenue models if iPhone sees a 20% YoY gain in 2022 rather than the -6% drop I was modeling into my best case scenario. The drops in the previous second years of the cycle were -12% in 2016 and -14% in 2019. A 20% increase would be a huge shift from the pattern.\nFive Scenarios\nModels of the future are generally an expression of the author’s biases with math laid over it. My number one recommendation for consumers of these sorts of things is skepticism and a thorough frisking of assumptions. The recentTesla model from ARK Investmentis a cautionary tale for everyone. There areExcel worksheetson GitHub with the model, and all the major assumptions are modifiable. Each scenario is a separate worksheet.\nLet’s first look at some assumptions common to the original four scenarios:\n\niPhone continues to exhibit a 3-year cyclical pattern. Fiscal 2021 is the high year, so 2024 is the next one.\nLegal and regulatory action trims App Store and thus Services growth a little.\nWearables, etc. remains on its strong growth path on Apple Watch, AirPods, AirTags, and at least one new product category, a VR headset in calendar 2022.\nMac and iPad return roughly to their pre-pandemic patterns. Like all PC makers, Apple saw abig surgefrom work-from-home.\nFiscal 2021 is half-reported, so all scenarios assume that it will complete along Apple’s average seasonal pattern from 2016-2019.\nOther assumptions are in the Excel sheets.\n\nScenarios:\n\nLarge, had been most optimistic case, but now we have a larger one based on this rumor.\nMedium, my base case.\nSmall is what Apple looks like if they come off the growth rates of the last 4-6 years.\nTiny is the same as Small through 2023, and then we’re going to throw some real problems at Apple.\nGurman Rumor is the same as Large, but with the new inflated iPhone projections.\n\nIn Medium:\n\nWe’ll model the iPhone cycle with the average growth rates of the 2015 and 2018 cycles.\nServices growth comes off of 2016-2020 trajectory by 2 pp because of legal or regulatory action on App Store.\nThe rest, as above.\n\nLarge and Small will, respectively, add and subtract from these growth rates in Medium. In addition, Large assumes:\n\nBoost in fiscal 2022-2025 for iPhone on 5G adoption.\nApple Silicon Macs gain Apple some PC market share.\nApple's AR glasses come out in the middle of fiscal 2025. To be clear, I view that as an unlikely timeline, but it does not have a large effect on the model since it comes 6 months from the end of our interval.\n\nTiny is a special event-based scenario where we will throw the two worst plausible scenarios we can at Apple. It starts with a huge reduction in App Store revenues due to antitrust action in the US and Europe at the end of fiscal 2023, and getting kicked out of China at the end of fiscal 2024. The former will be modeled as a sharp downturn in Services revenue in fiscal 2024. The China expulsion will lead to a 15% drop in top line revenue, and a decrease in products gross margin by 5 pp in 2025. I don’t view either of these as particularly likely, but this is the worst it can get.\nApple Stock in 2025\nThis table summarizes the results of the model scenarios:\n\nThe interesting result to me is that the Gurman scenario does not boost cash flows and fair value as much as I expected. This is an artifact of the growth of the Services and Wearables, etc. segments, now 30% of all Apple revenue:\n\nEven with iPhone’s extraordinary fiscal 2021, up 37% YoY by my estimate, iPhone was still 53% of Apple’s total net sales, down from 66% in 2015, the peak. While still the biggest thing on Apple’s tables, it is not nearly as important to consolidated Apple’s income statement as it was even 3 years ago, when it was 62% of Apple net sales.\nThis chart tracks the growth of fair value over the course of the models.\n\nThe rest of Apple has become so big that even adding $50 billion to 2022 iPhone sales going from the Large scenario to the Gurman Rumor scenario only raises free cash flow and the share price by about 8%. In the end, it represents a 3.1 pp increase in annual fair value appreciation over Large by 2025, but almost 10 pp per year over Medium, which remains my base case until we have a little more clarity on this rumor.\nSo the overall conclusion from my original article remains. Likely a lot of the gains of 2021 and 2022 are already baked into Apple’s price, especially since it is up 17% since the original article published in June. Since the beginning of fiscal 2020, Apple share price is up 140%, which has already captured a lot of the cash flow growth. Most likely fiscal 2023 is where we see it break out again.\nBut if Gurman’s rumor is correct, the breakout will come sooner, likely after they report Q4 2021 around the end of October, and give us guidance for Q1 2022. If that is much higher than expectations, that will likely represent a new leg up in share price. But Apple share price has appreciated so much already, even in the Gurman Rumor scenario that doesn’t represent a huge change in fair value over Thursday’s close:\n\nSo my recommendations remain:\n\nIf your time horizon for Apple is short, now is a good time to take profits.\nBut if your time horizon is long like mine, there is no other company with the range of long-term strengths Apple has, and a cash-flow machine which will eventually catch up to the inflated price.\n\nFor more details on those long term strengths and that cash-flow machine, see the original June article.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":284,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}