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2021-11-09

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Fed’s Clarida Sees Interest-Rate Liftoff Test Met by End of 2022

2021-11-06

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2021 Global Market Outlook - Q4 Update: Growing Pains

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please","listText":"Like please","text":"Like please","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/844655665","repostId":"1115872742","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1115872742","pubTimestamp":1636422946,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1115872742?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-11-09 09:55","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Fed’s Clarida Sees Interest-Rate Liftoff Test Met by End of 2022","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1115872742","media":"Bloomberg","summary":"Federal Reserve Vice Chair Richard Clarida said the “necessary conditions” to raise the U.S. central","content":"<p>Federal Reserve Vice Chair Richard Clarida said the “necessary conditions” to raise the U.S. central bank’s benchmark lending rate from near zero will probably be in place at the end of next year.</p>\n<p>“We are clearly a ways away from considering raising interest rates,” Clarida told a virtual event Monday hosted by the Brookings Institution in Washington. “I believe that these three necessary conditions for raising the target range for the federal funds rate will have been met by year-end 2022,” he said, referring to the labor market and inflation tests laid out by the Fed for liftoff.</p>\n<p>Fed officials last week left rates near zero and announced they would begin scaling back their massive asset-purchase program later this month on a schedule that would wrap up the process by mid-2022. They’ve said the taper decision did not imply a direct signal on interest-rate policy. Some officials, worried by high inflation, have argued for flexibility to raise rates as soon as the taper ends.</p>\n<p>Several other Fed officials also spoke on Monday. Highlights from those remarks include:</p>\n<ul>\n <li><p>St. Louis Fed President James Bullard, who said he had penciled in two rate increases next year and argued the central bank should be prepared to speed up its pace of tapering asset purchases. “We have done a lot to move the policy in a more hawkish direction. We can do more, but that will be data-dependent. We will have to see how that comes in,” he told Fox Business in an interview</p></li>\n <li><p>Philadelphia Fed President Patrick Harker, in a speech to the Economic Club of New York, said “I don’t expect that the federal funds rate will rise before the tapering is complete, but we are monitoring inflation very closely and are prepared to take action, should circumstances warrant it.”</p></li>\n <li><p>Chicago Fed President Charles Evans expects elevated inflation to eventually fade, but he says “there are some indications that inflationary pressures may be building more broadly.”</p></li>\n</ul>\n<p>Clarida said he expected inflation pressures to ease “as the labor market and global supply chains eventually adjust and, importantly, do so without putting persistent upward pressure on price inflation and wage gains adjusted for productivity.” U.S. central bankers in August 2020 adopted a new approach to the central bank’s goals for employment and price stability. The inflation target was redefined as 2% on average, to overcome years of undershooting.</p>\n<p>Fed officials have declined to define the time period over which they believe an average should be struck. The maximum employment objective was also redefined as a “broad-based and inclusive goal,” and officials said they would no longer prejudge the level maximum employment as they set policy -- although they still produce a forecast of an unemployment rate consistent with stable prices. In September, that long-run assessment was 4%. Clarida added that the risks to inflation are to the upside, and said he would not want to see another year of inflation overshoot along the lines of 2021. Inflation by the Fed’s preferred measure rose 4.4% for the 12 months ending September, and minus food and energy it rose 3.6%.</p>\n<p>“Inflation so far this year represents, to me, much more than a ‘moderate’ overshoot of our 2% longer-run inflation objective, and I would not consider a repeat performance next year a policy success,” he said.</p>\n<p>Central bank strategies from Canada and Britain to the euro zone and the U.S. are being tested by bouts of inflation as economies emerge from pandemic downturns.</p>","source":"lsy1584095487587","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Fed’s Clarida Sees Interest-Rate Liftoff Test Met by End of 2022</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nFed’s Clarida Sees Interest-Rate Liftoff Test Met by End of 2022\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-11-09 09:55 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://finance.yahoo.com/news/fed-clarida-sees-interest-rate-140000427.html><strong>Bloomberg</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Federal Reserve Vice Chair Richard Clarida said the “necessary conditions” to raise the U.S. central bank’s benchmark lending rate from near zero will probably be in place at the end of next year.\n“We...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://finance.yahoo.com/news/fed-clarida-sees-interest-rate-140000427.html\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"https://finance.yahoo.com/news/fed-clarida-sees-interest-rate-140000427.html","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1115872742","content_text":"Federal Reserve Vice Chair Richard Clarida said the “necessary conditions” to raise the U.S. central bank’s benchmark lending rate from near zero will probably be in place at the end of next year.\n“We are clearly a ways away from considering raising interest rates,” Clarida told a virtual event Monday hosted by the Brookings Institution in Washington. “I believe that these three necessary conditions for raising the target range for the federal funds rate will have been met by year-end 2022,” he said, referring to the labor market and inflation tests laid out by the Fed for liftoff.\nFed officials last week left rates near zero and announced they would begin scaling back their massive asset-purchase program later this month on a schedule that would wrap up the process by mid-2022. They’ve said the taper decision did not imply a direct signal on interest-rate policy. Some officials, worried by high inflation, have argued for flexibility to raise rates as soon as the taper ends.\nSeveral other Fed officials also spoke on Monday. Highlights from those remarks include:\n\nSt. Louis Fed President James Bullard, who said he had penciled in two rate increases next year and argued the central bank should be prepared to speed up its pace of tapering asset purchases. “We have done a lot to move the policy in a more hawkish direction. We can do more, but that will be data-dependent. We will have to see how that comes in,” he told Fox Business in an interview\nPhiladelphia Fed President Patrick Harker, in a speech to the Economic Club of New York, said “I don’t expect that the federal funds rate will rise before the tapering is complete, but we are monitoring inflation very closely and are prepared to take action, should circumstances warrant it.”\nChicago Fed President Charles Evans expects elevated inflation to eventually fade, but he says “there are some indications that inflationary pressures may be building more broadly.”\n\nClarida said he expected inflation pressures to ease “as the labor market and global supply chains eventually adjust and, importantly, do so without putting persistent upward pressure on price inflation and wage gains adjusted for productivity.” U.S. central bankers in August 2020 adopted a new approach to the central bank’s goals for employment and price stability. The inflation target was redefined as 2% on average, to overcome years of undershooting.\nFed officials have declined to define the time period over which they believe an average should be struck. The maximum employment objective was also redefined as a “broad-based and inclusive goal,” and officials said they would no longer prejudge the level maximum employment as they set policy -- although they still produce a forecast of an unemployment rate consistent with stable prices. In September, that long-run assessment was 4%. Clarida added that the risks to inflation are to the upside, and said he would not want to see another year of inflation overshoot along the lines of 2021. Inflation by the Fed’s preferred measure rose 4.4% for the 12 months ending September, and minus food and energy it rose 3.6%.\n“Inflation so far this year represents, to me, much more than a ‘moderate’ overshoot of our 2% longer-run inflation objective, and I would not consider a repeat performance next year a policy success,” he said.\nCentral bank strategies from Canada and Britain to the euro zone and the U.S. are being tested by bouts of inflation as economies emerge from pandemic downturns.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":358,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":842214989,"gmtCreate":1636180807056,"gmtModify":1636180807498,"author":{"id":"3582685915272084","authorId":"3582685915272084","name":"Cicaf","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/89d23feb4d833b076b3c82458b3d41f0","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Like please","listText":"Like please","text":"Like please","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/842214989","repostId":"1173813098","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":334,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":848532031,"gmtCreate":1636010904064,"gmtModify":1636010904480,"author":{"id":"3582685915272084","authorId":"3582685915272084","name":"Cicaf","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/89d23feb4d833b076b3c82458b3d41f0","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Like please","listText":"Like please","text":"Like please","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/848532031","repostId":"1198107375","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":444,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":865876385,"gmtCreate":1632971129372,"gmtModify":1632971245967,"author":{"id":"3582685915272084","authorId":"3582685915272084","name":"Cicaf","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/89d23feb4d833b076b3c82458b3d41f0","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Like please&nbsp;","listText":"Like please&nbsp;","text":"Like please","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/865876385","repostId":"1104172212","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1104172212","pubTimestamp":1632965278,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1104172212?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-09-30 09:27","market":"us","language":"en","title":"2021 Global Market Outlook - Q4 Update: Growing Pains","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1104172212","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Summary\n\nThe post-lockdown recovery has been powerful, and most developed economies have seen double","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p>\n<ul>\n <li>The post-lockdown recovery has been powerful, and most developed economies have seen double-digit gross domestic product (GDP) rebounds from 2020 lows.</li>\n <li>The reopening trade should resume in coming months. The cyclical stocks that comprise the value factor are reporting stronger earnings upgrades than technology-heavy growth stocks, and the value factor is cheap compared to the growth factor.</li>\n <li>The key risk is that the delta variant or similar proves resilient to vaccination or that infection rates escalate during the Northern Hemisphere winter.</li>\n</ul>\n<p>The COVID-19 delta variant, inflation and central bank tapering are unnerving investors. <b>We expect the pandemic-recovery trade to resume as inflation subsides, infection rates decline and tapering turns out to not equal tightening. Amid this backdrop, our outlook favors equities over bonds, the value factor over the growth factor and non-U.S. stocks over U.S. stocks.</b></p>\n<p><b>Introduction</b></p>\n<p>The post-lockdown recovery has transitioned from energetic youthfulness to awkward adolescence. It’s still growing, although at a slower pace, and there are worries about what happens next, particularly about monetary policy and the outlook for inflation. Theinflation spikehas been larger than expected, but we still think it istransitory, caused by base effects from when the U.S. consumer price index (CPI) fell during the lockdown last year and by temporary supply bottlenecks. Inflation may remain high over the remainder of 2021 but should decline in early 2022. This means that even though the U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed) is likely to begin tapering back on asset purchases before the end of the year, rate hikes are unlikely before the second half of 2023.</p>\n<p>Another worry is thehighly contagious COVID-19 delta variant. The evidence so far is that vaccines are effective in preventing serious COVID-19 infections. Vaccination rates are accelerating globally, and emerging economies are catching up with developed markets. Infection rates appear to have peaked globally in early September. This means the reopening of economies should continue over the remainder of 2021. The onset of winter in the northern hemisphere will be a test, but the rollout of booster vaccination shots should help prevent widescale renewed lockdowns.</p>\n<p>The conclusions from our cycle, value and sentiment (CVS) investment decision-making process are broadly unchanged from our previous quarterly report. Global equities remain expensive, with the very expensive U.S. market offsetting better value elsewhere. Sentiment is slightly overbought, but not close to dangerous levels of euphoria. The strong cycle delivers a preference for equities over bonds for at least the next 12 months, despite expensive valuations. It also reinforces our preference for thevalue equity factor over the growth factorand for non-U.S. equities to outperform the U.S. market.</p>\n<p><b>Cycle still in recovery phase</b></p>\n<p>The post-lockdown recovery has been powerful, and most developed economies have seen double-digit gross domestic product (GDP) rebounds from 2020 lows. Even so, we think the cycle is still in the recovery phase, although it is maturing. Despite strong growth, there is plenty of spare capacity. This can be seen in the employment-to-population ratio for prime-age workers in the United States. The chart below shows the ratio has recovered from the pandemic lows, but only to levels reached during the relatively mild recessions in the early 1990s and 2000s. We expect theU.S. labor-market recoveryshould still resemble a typical post-recession recovery over the next few quarters.</p>\n<p><b>U.S. EMPLOYMENT-POPULATION RATIO FOR PRIME-AGE WORKERS</b></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/28a91fe2991463e2285879c32cb1b8c7\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"982\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>The U.S. recovery, however, is more advanced than that of other developed economies. The following chart shows how far GDP has recovered, relative to the pre-COVID-19 peak in 2019. GDP is 0.8% higher in the U.S., although this level is still short relative to the pre-COVID-19 trend. GDP is 2.5% below 2019 levels in the euro area and 4.5% below in the United Kingdom. We expect more cyclical upside for economic growth outside the U.S., and this should allow market leadership to rotate toward the rest of the world.</p>\n<p><b>GDP IN Q2 2021 RELATIVE TO PRE-COVID-19 PEAK IN 2019</b></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/577d1b96aef08b71c9bdb6665a21b2ac\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"982\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p><b>Two key indicators</b></p>\n<p>Last quarter, we listed two indicators that should offer a guide to the Fed’s expected reaction to the inflation spike.</p>\n<p>The first is five-year/five-year breakeven inflation expectations, based on the pricing of Treasury Inflation Protected Securities (TIPS). This is the market’s forecast for average inflation over five years in five years’ time. It tells us that investors expect inflation will average 2.17% in the five years from late 2026 to late 2031. The TIPS yields are based on the CPI, while the Fed targets inflation as measured by the personal consumption expenditure (PCE) deflator. The two move together over time, but CPI inflation is generally around 0.25% higher than PCE inflation. A breakeven rate of 2.75% would suggest the market sees PCE inflation above 2.5% in five years’ time. Market inflation expectations are currently comfortably below the Fed’s worry point.</p>\n<p><b>WATCHPOINT INDICATOR #1: U.S. 5-YEAR/5-YEAR BREAKEVEN INFLATION RATE</b></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/13f3cf57b58f600fe6681e9015779e85\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"982\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>The second indicator is the Atlanta Fed’s Wage Growth Tracker, and this has a less-comforting message about inflation risks. It reached 3.9% in August, which isclose to the 4% thresholdwhere we judge that the Fed will become concerned about the inflationary impact on the growth of wages. A breakdown shows that the spike has been mostly driven by wages for low-skilled, young people in the leisure and hospitality industry. This suggests the surge has been caused by temporary labor supply shortages and that wage pressures should subside as economic activity normalizes. This indicator, however, will be an important watchpoint over the next few months.</p>\n<p><b>WATCHPOINT INDICATOR #2: ATLANTA FED WAGE GROWTH TRACKER</b></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a1d3ff1ca26f6d29a28f919c65531c9a\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"982\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p><b>Reopening trade still makes sense</b></p>\n<p>The reopening trade, which lifts long-term interest rates and favors cyclical and value stocks over technology and growth stocks, worked well for several months following the vaccine announcement last November. Value outperformed growth and yield curves steepened. The trade has reversed in recent months, however, amid fears that the delta variant might derail the economic recovery. The impact has been magnified by short covering in bond markets as investors, who have been short or underweight, have been forced by the rally to buy back into the market, pushing bond yields even lower.</p>\n<p>The reopening trade should resume in coming months. The cyclical stocks that comprise the value factor are reporting stronger earnings upgrades than technology-heavy growth stocks, and the value factor is cheap compared to the growth factor. Financial stocks comprise the largest sector in the MSCI World Value Index, and they should benefit from further yield-curve steepening, which boosts the profitability of banks. Long-term interest rates should rise as global growth remains above trend, delta-variant fears fade, the short squeeze unwinds and central banks begin tapering back on bond purchases.</p>\n<p>The rotation in economic growth leadership away from the United States should also help the reopening trade. The rest of the world is overweight cyclical value stocks relative to the U.S., which has a higher weight to technology stocks.</p>\n<p>Emerging market (EM) equities have been poor performers since the vaccine announcement, but there are some encouraging signs. Initially, they were held back by the exposure to technology stocks in the MSCI Emerging Markets Index and the slow rollout of COVID-19 vaccines. More recently, they have come under pressure from the slowdown in the Chinese economy and theregulatory crackdown on Chinese tech companies. The vaccine rollout across emerging markets has accelerated and policy easing in China should soon improve the growth outlook. The path of Chinese regulation is harder to predict, but it is now largely priced in, with Chinese technology companies underperforming their global peers by nearly 50% from February 2021 through mid-September.</p>\n<p>The resumption of the reopening trade should also result in U.S. dollar weakness. The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) has traded sideways since the vaccine announcement. It should weaken once investors have confidence that delta-variant risks are subsiding and realize that the Fed is likely to remain dovish as inflation risks decline. The dollar typically gains during global downturns and declines in the recovery phase. Dollar weakness should support the performance of non-U.S. markets, particularly emerging markets.</p>\n<p><b>Risks: variants, inflation, China weakness</b></p>\n<p>The key risk is that the delta variant or similar proves resilient to vaccination or that infection rates escalate during the Northern Hemisphere winter. The evidence so far is that vaccinations are highly effective in preventing serious illness. In Israel, booster shots appear to have slowed the rate of new cases.</p>\n<p>Another watchpoint is inflation and the response of central banks. Our expectation is that this year’s inflation spike is mostly transitory and that the major central banks, led by the Fed, are still two years from raising interest rates.</p>\n<p>Finally, there is the risk of a sharper-than-expected slowdown in China.Credit growth has slowed this yearand the purchasing managers’ indexes (PMI) have trended lower. Monetary and fiscal policy have been eased, however, and senior officials have signaled that more stimulus is on the way. China policy direction and credit trends will be an important watchpoint over coming months.</p>\n<p><b>Regional snapshotsUnited States</b></p>\n<p>The U.S. economy is likely to sustain above-trend growth into 2022. However, the easiest gains appear in the rear-view mirror at the end of the third quarter as the recovery phase of the business cycle matures. This is most visible for corporate earnings, where S&amp;P 500® Index earnings-per-share already sit 20% above their previous cyclical high.</p>\n<p>Strong fundamentals have helped power the stock market to new highs. Early evidence that the delta-variant wave may be fading and the potential for greater vaccine access for children are positives for a more complete recovery in the quarters ahead. The Fedlooks poised to start tapering its asset purchasesaround the end of 2021. The timing of the first rate hike will then hinge on what happens to inflation next year. Our models suggest that inflation is likely to drop back below the Fed’s 2% target in 2022. If that is correct, the Fed is likely to remain on hold into the second half of 2023.</p>\n<p>Wage inflation is a key risk to this view. It is running unusually strong for this stage of the cycle, and record hiring intentions from businesses could exhaust spare capacity in the year ahead. We expect the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield to rise moderately from 1.37% in mid-September to 1.75% in coming months.</p>\n<p>Fiscal stimulus negotiations continue to grab headlines in Washington, D.C. Thetax provisions in these billsare likely to be the most impactful for financial markets. We estimate thathigher corporate taxescould subtract about four percentage points from S&amp;P 500 earnings growth in 2022. This could create volatility and opportunity in markets. Given our strong cyclical outlook, our bias continues to be a<i>risk-on</i>preference for equities over bonds for the medium-term.</p>\n<p><b>Eurozone</b></p>\n<p>Euro area growthslowed through the third quarter but looks on track for a return to above-trend growth over the fourth quarter and into 2022. Vaccination rates are high, and the euro area has more catch-up potential than other major economies, particularly the United States. The euro area is also set to receive more fiscal support than other regions, with the European Union’s pandemic recovery fund only just starting to disburse stimulus, which will provide significant support in southern Europe. Polls in advance of Germany’s federal election on Sept. 26 suggested the electorate was moving toward the political left, which means the new government is likely to support expansionary fiscal policy and a continued dovish stance by the European Central Bank (ECB).</p>\n<p>The MSCI EMU Index, which reflects the European Economic and Monetary Union, has performed broadly in line with the S&amp;P 500 so far in 2021. We think it has potential to outperform in coming quarters. Europe’s exposure to financials and cyclically sensitive sectors such as industrials, materials and energy, and its relatively small exposure to technology, gives it the potential to outperform as delta-variant fears subside, economic activity picks up and yield curves in Europe steepen.</p>\n<p><b>United Kingdom</b></p>\n<p>As of mid-year, UK GDP was still nearly 4.5% below its pre-pandemic peak. We see plenty of scope for strong catch-up growth as borders are fully reopened and activity normalizes. Supply bottlenecks and labor shortages have triggered a sharp rise in underlying inflation and created concerns that the Bank of England (BoE) may start rate hikes in the first half of 2022. We think the BoE is unlikely to be that aggressive. We expect inflation to decline in early 2022 as supply constraints ease, which should convince the BoE to delay rate hikes.</p>\n<p>The FTSE 100 Index is the cheapest of the major developed equity markets in late 2021, and this should help it reflect higher returns than other markets over the next decade. Around 70% of UK corporate earnings come from offshore, so one near-term risk is that further strengthening of British sterling dampens earnings growth. The other risks are mostly around policy missteps, for example, early tightening by the Bank of England.</p>\n<p><b>Japan</b></p>\n<p>The Japanese economy is expected to get a shot in the arm as rising vaccination rates improve mobility and reduce the risk of further lockdowns, and as political leadership changes result in more fiscal stimulus: the Japanese election is due to be held before Nov. 28. Japanese equities look slightly more expensive than other regions such as the UK and Europe. We maintain our view that the Bank of Japan will significantly lag other central banks in normalizing policy.</p>\n<p><b>China</b></p>\n<p>We expect Chinese economic growth to berobust over the next 12 months, supported by a post-lockdown jump in consumer spending and incremental fiscal and monetary easing. Despite a big improvement in vaccination rates,COVID-19 outbreaks remain a riskgiven the Chinese government’s zero-tolerance approach. The major consumer technology companies have seen significant drops in stock prices recently due to more aggressive regulation. Some uncertainty remains around thepath of future regulation, especially as it relates to technology companies, and as a result we expect investors will remain cautious on Chinese equities in the coming months. The property market, particularly property developers as recently highlighted by Evergrande’s debt crisis, remains a risk that we are monitoring closely.</p>\n<p><b>Canada</b></p>\n<p>Canada leads the G71countries in terms of the vaccination rollout, which should minimize the risk of large-scale lockdowns over winter. The delta variant has taken an economic toll, however, with industry consensus projections now predicting 5% GDP growth in 2021 versus estimates of more than 6% just three months ago. Even so, growth remains above-trend and the odds of additional fiscal expenditures to support the economy have increased. This means that weaker growth due to COVID-19 is unlikely to change the Bank of Canada's (BoC) tightening bias.</p>\n<p>Tapering of asset purchasesshould be complete by the end of the first quarter of 2022. BoC Governor Tiff Macklem has indicated that the reinvestment phase of the bonds held by the central bank will commence once quantitative easing has ended. This should generate an estimated C$1 billion in weekly bond purchases, down from the current pace of C$2 billion. The BoC will likely only consider shrinking its balance sheet after it has started lifting interest rates. The BoC projects that the output gap will close sometime over the second half of 2022, and that rate hikes will be considered after economic slack has disappeared. We believe that the timeline may be a tad aggressive, and a delay to 2023 for liftoff is more likely. This would better align the Canadian central bank with its American counterpart.</p>\n<p><b>Australia/New Zealand</b></p>\n<p>The Australian economy is set to return to life, with lockdowns likely to be eased in October and November. Consumer and business balance sheets continue to look healthy, which should facilitate a strong recovery. The reopening of the international border in 2022 will provide a further boost. Fiscal policy has supported the economy through the downturn, and there is potential for further stimulus in the lead-up to the federal election, which is due before the end of 2022. The Reserve Bank of Australia has begun the process of tapering its bond-purchase program, but we expect that a rise in the cash rate is unlikely until at least the second half of 2023.</p>\n<p>New Zealand’s most recent lockdown will drag on Q3 GDP, but similar to Australia, we expect a solid rebound as the economy reopens. The government aims to provide a vaccine to all adults by the end of 2021, after which borders will gradually reopen. This will provide a boost, particularly to tourism-exposed sectors. Despite having recently put off hiking interest rates due to the recent lockdown, we expect the Reserve Bank of New Zealand will start raising rates this year. Even though they have significantly underperformed global equities this year, New Zealand equities still screen as relatively expensive compared to other regions.</p>\n<p><b>Asset-class preferences</b></p>\n<p>Our cycle, value and sentiment investment decision-making process in late September 2021 has a moderately positive medium-term view on global equities. Value is expensive across most markets except for UK equities, which are near fair value. The cycle is risk-asset supportive for the medium-term. The major economies still have spare capacity and inflation pressures appear transitory, caused by COVID-19-related supply shortages. Rate hikes by the U.S. Fed seem unlikely before the second half of 2023. Sentiment, after reaching overbought levels earlier in the year, has returned to more neutral levels.</p>\n<p><b>COMPOSITE CONTRARIAN INDICATOR: SENTIMENT SHIFTS TOWARD NEUTRAL</b></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5c527955abbc9e770d200c1d709f80d8\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"982\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<ul>\n <li>We prefer<b>non-U.S. equities</b>to U.S. equities. Stronger economic growth and steeper yield curves after the third-quarter slowdown should favor undervalued cyclical value stocks over expensive technology and growth stocks. Relative to the U.S., the rest of the world is overweight cyclical value stocks.</li>\n <li><b>Emerging markets equities</b>have been relatively poor performers this year, but there are some encouraging signs. The vaccine rollout across EM has accelerated and policy easing in China should soon boost the economic growth outlook.China’s regulatory crackdownhas caused significant underperformance by Chinese technology companies, but this should be less of a headwind going forward now that it is priced in.</li>\n <li><b>High yield</b>and<b>investment grade credit</b>are expensive on a spread basis but have support from a positive cycle view that accommodates corporate profit growth and keeps default rates low. U.S. dollar-denominated<b>emerging markets debt</b>is close to fair value in spread terms and will gain support on U.S. dollar weakness.</li>\n <li><b>Government bonds</b>are expensive, and yields should come under upward pressure as output gaps close and central banks look to taper back asset purchases. We expect the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield to rise toward 1.75% in coming months.</li>\n <li><b>Real assets</b>: Real Estate Investment Trusts (REITs) have significantly outperformed Global Listed Infrastructure (GLI) so far this year, to the extent that REITS are now expensive relative to GLI. Both should benefit from the pandemic recovery, but GLI has some catch-up potential. GLI should benefit from the global re-opening boosting domestic and international travel.<b>Commodities</b>have been the best-performing asset class this year amid strong demand and supply bottlenecks. The gains have been led by industrial metals and energy. The pace of increase should ease as supply issues are resolved, butcommodities should retain supportfrom above-trend global demand.</li>\n <li>The<b>U.S. dollar</b>has been supported this year by expectations for early Fed tightening and U.S. economic growth leadership. It should weaken as global growth leadership rotates away from the U.S. and toward Europe and other developed economies. The dollar typically gains during global downturns and declines in the recovery phase. The main beneficiary is likely to be the<b>euro</b>, which is still undervalued. We also believe<b>British sterling</b>and the economically sensitive<i>commodity currencies</i>—the<b>Australian dollar</b>, the<b>New Zealand dollar</b>and the<b>Canadian dollar</b>—can make further gains, although these currencies are not undervalued from a longer-term perspective.</li>\n</ul>\n<p><b>ASSET PERFORMANCE SINCE THE BEGINNING OF 2021</b></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/50e253becd38bd122d9fc211e7b0f583\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"982\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>1The Group of Seven is an inter-governmental political forum consisting of Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, the United Kingdom and the United States.</p>\n<p><b>Important Information</b></p>\n<p>The views in this Global Market Outlook report are subject to change at any time based upon market or other conditions and are current as of September 27, 2021. While all material is deemed to be reliable, accuracy and completeness cannot be guaranteed.</p>\n<p>Please remember that all investments carry some level of risk, including the potential loss of principal invested. They do not typically grow at an even rate of return and may experience negative growth. As with any type of portfolio structuring, attempting to reduce risk and increase return could, at certain times, unintentionally reduce returns.</p>\n<p>Keep in mind that, like all investing, multi-asset investing does not assure a profit or protect against loss.</p>\n<p>No model or group of models can offer a precise estimate of future returns available from capital markets. We remain cautious that rational analytical techniques cannot predict extremes in financial behavior, such as periods of financial euphoria or investor panic. Our models rest on the assumptions of normal and rational financial behavior. Forecasting models are inherently uncertain, subject to change at any time based on a variety of factors and can be inaccurate. Russell believes that the utility of this information is highest in evaluating the relative relationships of various components of a globally diversified portfolio. As such, the models may offer insights into the prudence of over or under weighting those components from time to time or under periods of extreme dislocation. The models are explicitly not intended as market timing signals.</p>\n<p>Forecasting represents predictions of market prices and/or volume patterns utilizing varying analytical data. It is not representative of a projection of the stock market, or of any specific investment.</p>\n<p>Investment in global, international or emerging markets may be significantly affected by political or economic conditions and regulatory requirements in a particular country. Investments in non-U.S. markets can involve risks of currency fluctuation, political and economic instability, different accounting standards and foreign taxation. Such securities may be less liquid and more volatile. Investments in emerging or developing markets involve exposure to economic structures that are generally less diverse and mature, and political systems with less stability than in more developed countries.</p>\n<p>Currency investing involves risks including fluctuations in currency values, whether the home currency or the foreign currency. They can either enhance or reduce the returns associated with foreign investments.</p>\n<p>Investments in non-U.S. markets can involve risks of currency fluctuation, political and economic instability, different accounting standards and foreign taxation.</p>\n<p>Bond investors should carefully consider risks such as interest rate, credit, default and duration risks. Greater risk, such as increased volatility, limited liquidity, prepayment, non-payment and increased default risk, is inherent in portfolios that invest in high yield (“junk”) bonds or mortgage-backed securities, especially mortgage-backed securities with exposure to sub-prime mortgages. Generally, when interest rates rise, prices of fixed income securities fall. Interest rates in the United States are at, or near, historic lows, which may increase a Fund’s exposure to risks associated with rising rates. Investment in non-U.S. and emerging market securities is subject to the risk of currency fluctuations and to economic and political risks associated with such foreign countries.</p>\n<p>Performance quoted represents past performance and should not be viewed as a guarantee of future results.</p>\n<p>The FTSE 100 Index is a market-capitalization weighted index of UK-listed blue chip companies.</p>\n<p>The S&amp;P 500® Index, or the Standard &amp; Poor’s 500, is a stock market index based on the market capitalizations of 500 large companies having common stock listed on the NYSE or NASDAQ.</p>\n<p>The MSCI EMU Index (European Economic and Monetary Union) captures large and mid cap representation across the 10 developed markets countries in the EMU. With 246 constituents, the index covers approximately 85% of the free float-adjusted market capitalization of the EMU.</p>\n<p>Indexes are unmanaged and cannot be invested in directly.</p>\n<p>Copyright © Russell Investments 2021. All rights reserved. This material is proprietary and may not be reproduced, transferred, or distributed in any form without prior written permission from Russell Investments. It is delivered on an “as is” basis without warranty.</p>\n<p>Frank Russell Company is the owner of the Russell trademarks contained in this material and all trademark rights related to the Russell trademarks, which the members of the Russell Investments group of companies are permitted to use under license from Frank Russell Company. The members of the Russell Investments group of companies are not affiliated in any manner with Frank Russell Company or any entity operating under the “FTSE RUSSELL” brand.</p>\n<p>Products and services described on this website are intended for<b>United States residents only</b>. Nothing contained in this material is intended to constitute legal, tax, securities, or investment advice, nor an opinion regarding the appropriateness of any investment, nor a solicitation of any type. The general information contained on this website should not be acted upon without obtaining specific legal, tax, and investment advice from a licensed professional. Persons outside the United States may find more information about products and services available within their jurisdictions by going to Russell Investments' Worldwide site.</p>\n<p>Russell Investments is committed to ensuring digital accessibility for people with disabilities. We are continually improving the user experience for everyone, and applying the relevant accessibility standards.</p>\n<p>Russell Investments' ownership is composed of a majority stake held by funds managed by TA Associates, with a significant minority stake held by funds managed by Reverence Capital Partners. Russell Investments' employees and Hamilton Lane Advisors, LLC also hold minority, non-controlling, ownership stakes.</p>","source":"seekingalpha","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>2021 Global Market Outlook - Q4 Update: Growing Pains</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n2021 Global Market Outlook - Q4 Update: Growing Pains\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-09-30 09:27 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4457651-2021-global-market-outlook-q4-update-growing-pains><strong>seekingalpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Summary\n\nThe post-lockdown recovery has been powerful, and most developed economies have seen double-digit gross domestic product (GDP) rebounds from 2020 lows.\nThe reopening trade should resume in ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4457651-2021-global-market-outlook-q4-update-growing-pains\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"SPY":"标普500ETF",".DJI":"道琼斯",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4457651-2021-global-market-outlook-q4-update-growing-pains","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/5a36db9d73b4222bc376d24ccc48c8a4","article_id":"1104172212","content_text":"Summary\n\nThe post-lockdown recovery has been powerful, and most developed economies have seen double-digit gross domestic product (GDP) rebounds from 2020 lows.\nThe reopening trade should resume in coming months. The cyclical stocks that comprise the value factor are reporting stronger earnings upgrades than technology-heavy growth stocks, and the value factor is cheap compared to the growth factor.\nThe key risk is that the delta variant or similar proves resilient to vaccination or that infection rates escalate during the Northern Hemisphere winter.\n\nThe COVID-19 delta variant, inflation and central bank tapering are unnerving investors. We expect the pandemic-recovery trade to resume as inflation subsides, infection rates decline and tapering turns out to not equal tightening. Amid this backdrop, our outlook favors equities over bonds, the value factor over the growth factor and non-U.S. stocks over U.S. stocks.\nIntroduction\nThe post-lockdown recovery has transitioned from energetic youthfulness to awkward adolescence. It’s still growing, although at a slower pace, and there are worries about what happens next, particularly about monetary policy and the outlook for inflation. Theinflation spikehas been larger than expected, but we still think it istransitory, caused by base effects from when the U.S. consumer price index (CPI) fell during the lockdown last year and by temporary supply bottlenecks. Inflation may remain high over the remainder of 2021 but should decline in early 2022. This means that even though the U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed) is likely to begin tapering back on asset purchases before the end of the year, rate hikes are unlikely before the second half of 2023.\nAnother worry is thehighly contagious COVID-19 delta variant. The evidence so far is that vaccines are effective in preventing serious COVID-19 infections. Vaccination rates are accelerating globally, and emerging economies are catching up with developed markets. Infection rates appear to have peaked globally in early September. This means the reopening of economies should continue over the remainder of 2021. The onset of winter in the northern hemisphere will be a test, but the rollout of booster vaccination shots should help prevent widescale renewed lockdowns.\nThe conclusions from our cycle, value and sentiment (CVS) investment decision-making process are broadly unchanged from our previous quarterly report. Global equities remain expensive, with the very expensive U.S. market offsetting better value elsewhere. Sentiment is slightly overbought, but not close to dangerous levels of euphoria. The strong cycle delivers a preference for equities over bonds for at least the next 12 months, despite expensive valuations. It also reinforces our preference for thevalue equity factor over the growth factorand for non-U.S. equities to outperform the U.S. market.\nCycle still in recovery phase\nThe post-lockdown recovery has been powerful, and most developed economies have seen double-digit gross domestic product (GDP) rebounds from 2020 lows. Even so, we think the cycle is still in the recovery phase, although it is maturing. Despite strong growth, there is plenty of spare capacity. This can be seen in the employment-to-population ratio for prime-age workers in the United States. The chart below shows the ratio has recovered from the pandemic lows, but only to levels reached during the relatively mild recessions in the early 1990s and 2000s. We expect theU.S. labor-market recoveryshould still resemble a typical post-recession recovery over the next few quarters.\nU.S. EMPLOYMENT-POPULATION RATIO FOR PRIME-AGE WORKERS\n\nThe U.S. recovery, however, is more advanced than that of other developed economies. The following chart shows how far GDP has recovered, relative to the pre-COVID-19 peak in 2019. GDP is 0.8% higher in the U.S., although this level is still short relative to the pre-COVID-19 trend. GDP is 2.5% below 2019 levels in the euro area and 4.5% below in the United Kingdom. We expect more cyclical upside for economic growth outside the U.S., and this should allow market leadership to rotate toward the rest of the world.\nGDP IN Q2 2021 RELATIVE TO PRE-COVID-19 PEAK IN 2019\n\nTwo key indicators\nLast quarter, we listed two indicators that should offer a guide to the Fed’s expected reaction to the inflation spike.\nThe first is five-year/five-year breakeven inflation expectations, based on the pricing of Treasury Inflation Protected Securities (TIPS). This is the market’s forecast for average inflation over five years in five years’ time. It tells us that investors expect inflation will average 2.17% in the five years from late 2026 to late 2031. The TIPS yields are based on the CPI, while the Fed targets inflation as measured by the personal consumption expenditure (PCE) deflator. The two move together over time, but CPI inflation is generally around 0.25% higher than PCE inflation. A breakeven rate of 2.75% would suggest the market sees PCE inflation above 2.5% in five years’ time. Market inflation expectations are currently comfortably below the Fed’s worry point.\nWATCHPOINT INDICATOR #1: U.S. 5-YEAR/5-YEAR BREAKEVEN INFLATION RATE\n\nThe second indicator is the Atlanta Fed’s Wage Growth Tracker, and this has a less-comforting message about inflation risks. It reached 3.9% in August, which isclose to the 4% thresholdwhere we judge that the Fed will become concerned about the inflationary impact on the growth of wages. A breakdown shows that the spike has been mostly driven by wages for low-skilled, young people in the leisure and hospitality industry. This suggests the surge has been caused by temporary labor supply shortages and that wage pressures should subside as economic activity normalizes. This indicator, however, will be an important watchpoint over the next few months.\nWATCHPOINT INDICATOR #2: ATLANTA FED WAGE GROWTH TRACKER\n\nReopening trade still makes sense\nThe reopening trade, which lifts long-term interest rates and favors cyclical and value stocks over technology and growth stocks, worked well for several months following the vaccine announcement last November. Value outperformed growth and yield curves steepened. The trade has reversed in recent months, however, amid fears that the delta variant might derail the economic recovery. The impact has been magnified by short covering in bond markets as investors, who have been short or underweight, have been forced by the rally to buy back into the market, pushing bond yields even lower.\nThe reopening trade should resume in coming months. The cyclical stocks that comprise the value factor are reporting stronger earnings upgrades than technology-heavy growth stocks, and the value factor is cheap compared to the growth factor. Financial stocks comprise the largest sector in the MSCI World Value Index, and they should benefit from further yield-curve steepening, which boosts the profitability of banks. Long-term interest rates should rise as global growth remains above trend, delta-variant fears fade, the short squeeze unwinds and central banks begin tapering back on bond purchases.\nThe rotation in economic growth leadership away from the United States should also help the reopening trade. The rest of the world is overweight cyclical value stocks relative to the U.S., which has a higher weight to technology stocks.\nEmerging market (EM) equities have been poor performers since the vaccine announcement, but there are some encouraging signs. Initially, they were held back by the exposure to technology stocks in the MSCI Emerging Markets Index and the slow rollout of COVID-19 vaccines. More recently, they have come under pressure from the slowdown in the Chinese economy and theregulatory crackdown on Chinese tech companies. The vaccine rollout across emerging markets has accelerated and policy easing in China should soon improve the growth outlook. The path of Chinese regulation is harder to predict, but it is now largely priced in, with Chinese technology companies underperforming their global peers by nearly 50% from February 2021 through mid-September.\nThe resumption of the reopening trade should also result in U.S. dollar weakness. The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) has traded sideways since the vaccine announcement. It should weaken once investors have confidence that delta-variant risks are subsiding and realize that the Fed is likely to remain dovish as inflation risks decline. The dollar typically gains during global downturns and declines in the recovery phase. Dollar weakness should support the performance of non-U.S. markets, particularly emerging markets.\nRisks: variants, inflation, China weakness\nThe key risk is that the delta variant or similar proves resilient to vaccination or that infection rates escalate during the Northern Hemisphere winter. The evidence so far is that vaccinations are highly effective in preventing serious illness. In Israel, booster shots appear to have slowed the rate of new cases.\nAnother watchpoint is inflation and the response of central banks. Our expectation is that this year’s inflation spike is mostly transitory and that the major central banks, led by the Fed, are still two years from raising interest rates.\nFinally, there is the risk of a sharper-than-expected slowdown in China.Credit growth has slowed this yearand the purchasing managers’ indexes (PMI) have trended lower. Monetary and fiscal policy have been eased, however, and senior officials have signaled that more stimulus is on the way. China policy direction and credit trends will be an important watchpoint over coming months.\nRegional snapshotsUnited States\nThe U.S. economy is likely to sustain above-trend growth into 2022. However, the easiest gains appear in the rear-view mirror at the end of the third quarter as the recovery phase of the business cycle matures. This is most visible for corporate earnings, where S&P 500® Index earnings-per-share already sit 20% above their previous cyclical high.\nStrong fundamentals have helped power the stock market to new highs. Early evidence that the delta-variant wave may be fading and the potential for greater vaccine access for children are positives for a more complete recovery in the quarters ahead. The Fedlooks poised to start tapering its asset purchasesaround the end of 2021. The timing of the first rate hike will then hinge on what happens to inflation next year. Our models suggest that inflation is likely to drop back below the Fed’s 2% target in 2022. If that is correct, the Fed is likely to remain on hold into the second half of 2023.\nWage inflation is a key risk to this view. It is running unusually strong for this stage of the cycle, and record hiring intentions from businesses could exhaust spare capacity in the year ahead. We expect the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield to rise moderately from 1.37% in mid-September to 1.75% in coming months.\nFiscal stimulus negotiations continue to grab headlines in Washington, D.C. Thetax provisions in these billsare likely to be the most impactful for financial markets. We estimate thathigher corporate taxescould subtract about four percentage points from S&P 500 earnings growth in 2022. This could create volatility and opportunity in markets. Given our strong cyclical outlook, our bias continues to be arisk-onpreference for equities over bonds for the medium-term.\nEurozone\nEuro area growthslowed through the third quarter but looks on track for a return to above-trend growth over the fourth quarter and into 2022. Vaccination rates are high, and the euro area has more catch-up potential than other major economies, particularly the United States. The euro area is also set to receive more fiscal support than other regions, with the European Union’s pandemic recovery fund only just starting to disburse stimulus, which will provide significant support in southern Europe. Polls in advance of Germany’s federal election on Sept. 26 suggested the electorate was moving toward the political left, which means the new government is likely to support expansionary fiscal policy and a continued dovish stance by the European Central Bank (ECB).\nThe MSCI EMU Index, which reflects the European Economic and Monetary Union, has performed broadly in line with the S&P 500 so far in 2021. We think it has potential to outperform in coming quarters. Europe’s exposure to financials and cyclically sensitive sectors such as industrials, materials and energy, and its relatively small exposure to technology, gives it the potential to outperform as delta-variant fears subside, economic activity picks up and yield curves in Europe steepen.\nUnited Kingdom\nAs of mid-year, UK GDP was still nearly 4.5% below its pre-pandemic peak. We see plenty of scope for strong catch-up growth as borders are fully reopened and activity normalizes. Supply bottlenecks and labor shortages have triggered a sharp rise in underlying inflation and created concerns that the Bank of England (BoE) may start rate hikes in the first half of 2022. We think the BoE is unlikely to be that aggressive. We expect inflation to decline in early 2022 as supply constraints ease, which should convince the BoE to delay rate hikes.\nThe FTSE 100 Index is the cheapest of the major developed equity markets in late 2021, and this should help it reflect higher returns than other markets over the next decade. Around 70% of UK corporate earnings come from offshore, so one near-term risk is that further strengthening of British sterling dampens earnings growth. The other risks are mostly around policy missteps, for example, early tightening by the Bank of England.\nJapan\nThe Japanese economy is expected to get a shot in the arm as rising vaccination rates improve mobility and reduce the risk of further lockdowns, and as political leadership changes result in more fiscal stimulus: the Japanese election is due to be held before Nov. 28. Japanese equities look slightly more expensive than other regions such as the UK and Europe. We maintain our view that the Bank of Japan will significantly lag other central banks in normalizing policy.\nChina\nWe expect Chinese economic growth to berobust over the next 12 months, supported by a post-lockdown jump in consumer spending and incremental fiscal and monetary easing. Despite a big improvement in vaccination rates,COVID-19 outbreaks remain a riskgiven the Chinese government’s zero-tolerance approach. The major consumer technology companies have seen significant drops in stock prices recently due to more aggressive regulation. Some uncertainty remains around thepath of future regulation, especially as it relates to technology companies, and as a result we expect investors will remain cautious on Chinese equities in the coming months. The property market, particularly property developers as recently highlighted by Evergrande’s debt crisis, remains a risk that we are monitoring closely.\nCanada\nCanada leads the G71countries in terms of the vaccination rollout, which should minimize the risk of large-scale lockdowns over winter. The delta variant has taken an economic toll, however, with industry consensus projections now predicting 5% GDP growth in 2021 versus estimates of more than 6% just three months ago. Even so, growth remains above-trend and the odds of additional fiscal expenditures to support the economy have increased. This means that weaker growth due to COVID-19 is unlikely to change the Bank of Canada's (BoC) tightening bias.\nTapering of asset purchasesshould be complete by the end of the first quarter of 2022. BoC Governor Tiff Macklem has indicated that the reinvestment phase of the bonds held by the central bank will commence once quantitative easing has ended. This should generate an estimated C$1 billion in weekly bond purchases, down from the current pace of C$2 billion. The BoC will likely only consider shrinking its balance sheet after it has started lifting interest rates. The BoC projects that the output gap will close sometime over the second half of 2022, and that rate hikes will be considered after economic slack has disappeared. We believe that the timeline may be a tad aggressive, and a delay to 2023 for liftoff is more likely. This would better align the Canadian central bank with its American counterpart.\nAustralia/New Zealand\nThe Australian economy is set to return to life, with lockdowns likely to be eased in October and November. Consumer and business balance sheets continue to look healthy, which should facilitate a strong recovery. The reopening of the international border in 2022 will provide a further boost. Fiscal policy has supported the economy through the downturn, and there is potential for further stimulus in the lead-up to the federal election, which is due before the end of 2022. The Reserve Bank of Australia has begun the process of tapering its bond-purchase program, but we expect that a rise in the cash rate is unlikely until at least the second half of 2023.\nNew Zealand’s most recent lockdown will drag on Q3 GDP, but similar to Australia, we expect a solid rebound as the economy reopens. The government aims to provide a vaccine to all adults by the end of 2021, after which borders will gradually reopen. This will provide a boost, particularly to tourism-exposed sectors. Despite having recently put off hiking interest rates due to the recent lockdown, we expect the Reserve Bank of New Zealand will start raising rates this year. Even though they have significantly underperformed global equities this year, New Zealand equities still screen as relatively expensive compared to other regions.\nAsset-class preferences\nOur cycle, value and sentiment investment decision-making process in late September 2021 has a moderately positive medium-term view on global equities. Value is expensive across most markets except for UK equities, which are near fair value. The cycle is risk-asset supportive for the medium-term. The major economies still have spare capacity and inflation pressures appear transitory, caused by COVID-19-related supply shortages. Rate hikes by the U.S. Fed seem unlikely before the second half of 2023. Sentiment, after reaching overbought levels earlier in the year, has returned to more neutral levels.\nCOMPOSITE CONTRARIAN INDICATOR: SENTIMENT SHIFTS TOWARD NEUTRAL\n\n\nWe prefernon-U.S. equitiesto U.S. equities. Stronger economic growth and steeper yield curves after the third-quarter slowdown should favor undervalued cyclical value stocks over expensive technology and growth stocks. Relative to the U.S., the rest of the world is overweight cyclical value stocks.\nEmerging markets equitieshave been relatively poor performers this year, but there are some encouraging signs. The vaccine rollout across EM has accelerated and policy easing in China should soon boost the economic growth outlook.China’s regulatory crackdownhas caused significant underperformance by Chinese technology companies, but this should be less of a headwind going forward now that it is priced in.\nHigh yieldandinvestment grade creditare expensive on a spread basis but have support from a positive cycle view that accommodates corporate profit growth and keeps default rates low. U.S. dollar-denominatedemerging markets debtis close to fair value in spread terms and will gain support on U.S. dollar weakness.\nGovernment bondsare expensive, and yields should come under upward pressure as output gaps close and central banks look to taper back asset purchases. We expect the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield to rise toward 1.75% in coming months.\nReal assets: Real Estate Investment Trusts (REITs) have significantly outperformed Global Listed Infrastructure (GLI) so far this year, to the extent that REITS are now expensive relative to GLI. Both should benefit from the pandemic recovery, but GLI has some catch-up potential. GLI should benefit from the global re-opening boosting domestic and international travel.Commoditieshave been the best-performing asset class this year amid strong demand and supply bottlenecks. The gains have been led by industrial metals and energy. The pace of increase should ease as supply issues are resolved, butcommodities should retain supportfrom above-trend global demand.\nTheU.S. dollarhas been supported this year by expectations for early Fed tightening and U.S. economic growth leadership. It should weaken as global growth leadership rotates away from the U.S. and toward Europe and other developed economies. The dollar typically gains during global downturns and declines in the recovery phase. The main beneficiary is likely to be theeuro, which is still undervalued. We also believeBritish sterlingand the economically sensitivecommodity currencies—theAustralian dollar, theNew Zealand dollarand theCanadian dollar—can make further gains, although these currencies are not undervalued from a longer-term perspective.\n\nASSET PERFORMANCE SINCE THE BEGINNING OF 2021\n\n1The Group of Seven is an inter-governmental political forum consisting of Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, the United Kingdom and the United States.\nImportant Information\nThe views in this Global Market Outlook report are subject to change at any time based upon market or other conditions and are current as of September 27, 2021. While all material is deemed to be reliable, accuracy and completeness cannot be guaranteed.\nPlease remember that all investments carry some level of risk, including the potential loss of principal invested. They do not typically grow at an even rate of return and may experience negative growth. As with any type of portfolio structuring, attempting to reduce risk and increase return could, at certain times, unintentionally reduce returns.\nKeep in mind that, like all investing, multi-asset investing does not assure a profit or protect against loss.\nNo model or group of models can offer a precise estimate of future returns available from capital markets. We remain cautious that rational analytical techniques cannot predict extremes in financial behavior, such as periods of financial euphoria or investor panic. Our models rest on the assumptions of normal and rational financial behavior. Forecasting models are inherently uncertain, subject to change at any time based on a variety of factors and can be inaccurate. Russell believes that the utility of this information is highest in evaluating the relative relationships of various components of a globally diversified portfolio. As such, the models may offer insights into the prudence of over or under weighting those components from time to time or under periods of extreme dislocation. The models are explicitly not intended as market timing signals.\nForecasting represents predictions of market prices and/or volume patterns utilizing varying analytical data. It is not representative of a projection of the stock market, or of any specific investment.\nInvestment in global, international or emerging markets may be significantly affected by political or economic conditions and regulatory requirements in a particular country. Investments in non-U.S. markets can involve risks of currency fluctuation, political and economic instability, different accounting standards and foreign taxation. Such securities may be less liquid and more volatile. Investments in emerging or developing markets involve exposure to economic structures that are generally less diverse and mature, and political systems with less stability than in more developed countries.\nCurrency investing involves risks including fluctuations in currency values, whether the home currency or the foreign currency. They can either enhance or reduce the returns associated with foreign investments.\nInvestments in non-U.S. markets can involve risks of currency fluctuation, political and economic instability, different accounting standards and foreign taxation.\nBond investors should carefully consider risks such as interest rate, credit, default and duration risks. Greater risk, such as increased volatility, limited liquidity, prepayment, non-payment and increased default risk, is inherent in portfolios that invest in high yield (“junk”) bonds or mortgage-backed securities, especially mortgage-backed securities with exposure to sub-prime mortgages. Generally, when interest rates rise, prices of fixed income securities fall. Interest rates in the United States are at, or near, historic lows, which may increase a Fund’s exposure to risks associated with rising rates. Investment in non-U.S. and emerging market securities is subject to the risk of currency fluctuations and to economic and political risks associated with such foreign countries.\nPerformance quoted represents past performance and should not be viewed as a guarantee of future results.\nThe FTSE 100 Index is a market-capitalization weighted index of UK-listed blue chip companies.\nThe S&P 500® Index, or the Standard & Poor’s 500, is a stock market index based on the market capitalizations of 500 large companies having common stock listed on the NYSE or NASDAQ.\nThe MSCI EMU Index (European Economic and Monetary Union) captures large and mid cap representation across the 10 developed markets countries in the EMU. With 246 constituents, the index covers approximately 85% of the free float-adjusted market capitalization of the EMU.\nIndexes are unmanaged and cannot be invested in directly.\nCopyright © Russell Investments 2021. All rights reserved. This material is proprietary and may not be reproduced, transferred, or distributed in any form without prior written permission from Russell Investments. It is delivered on an “as is” basis without warranty.\nFrank Russell Company is the owner of the Russell trademarks contained in this material and all trademark rights related to the Russell trademarks, which the members of the Russell Investments group of companies are permitted to use under license from Frank Russell Company. The members of the Russell Investments group of companies are not affiliated in any manner with Frank Russell Company or any entity operating under the “FTSE RUSSELL” brand.\nProducts and services described on this website are intended forUnited States residents only. Nothing contained in this material is intended to constitute legal, tax, securities, or investment advice, nor an opinion regarding the appropriateness of any investment, nor a solicitation of any type. The general information contained on this website should not be acted upon without obtaining specific legal, tax, and investment advice from a licensed professional. Persons outside the United States may find more information about products and services available within their jurisdictions by going to Russell Investments' Worldwide site.\nRussell Investments is committed to ensuring digital accessibility for people with disabilities. We are continually improving the user experience for everyone, and applying the relevant accessibility standards.\nRussell Investments' ownership is composed of a majority stake held by funds managed by TA Associates, with a significant minority stake held by funds managed by Reverence Capital Partners. Russell Investments' employees and Hamilton Lane Advisors, LLC also hold minority, non-controlling, ownership stakes.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":446,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":866589603,"gmtCreate":1632790708102,"gmtModify":1632797582728,"author":{"id":"3582685915272084","authorId":"3582685915272084","name":"Cicaf","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/89d23feb4d833b076b3c82458b3d41f0","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Like please","listText":"Like please","text":"Like please","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/866589603","repostId":"1145220085","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":481,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":868708823,"gmtCreate":1632703391562,"gmtModify":1632798489665,"author":{"id":"3582685915272084","authorId":"3582685915272084","name":"Cicaf","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/89d23feb4d833b076b3c82458b3d41f0","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Like please&nbsp;","listText":"Like please&nbsp;","text":"Like please","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/868708823","repostId":"2170485596","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2170485596","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Dow Jones publishes the world’s most trusted business news and financial information in a variety of media.","home_visible":0,"media_name":"Dow Jones","id":"106","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/150f88aa4d182df19190059f4a365e99"},"pubTimestamp":1632695520,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2170485596?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-09-27 06:32","market":"hk","language":"en","title":"Tesla expands 'Full Self-Driving' beta tests as proxy group urges board shakeup","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2170485596","media":"Dow Jones","summary":"ISS calls for 'no' votes against two big-name directors, and for corporate accountability proposals.","content":"<blockquote>\n <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ISFFF\">ISS</a> calls for 'no' votes against two big-name directors, and for corporate accountability proposals.\n</blockquote>\n<p>A powerful proxy advisory firm is advising Tesla Inc. shareholders to vote against two current board members and for measures urging greater corporate accountability.</p>\n<p>Meanwhile, Tesla is expanding the number of drivers who can request the beta version of its latest \"Full Self-Driving\" feature, despite concerns from regulators.</p>\n<p>A note by Institutional Shareholder Services on Friday advised voting against directors James Murdoch, who quit the board of <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NWSAL\">News Corp</a>. in 2020, and Kimbal Musk, brother of Tesla CEO Elon Musk. ISS cited directors receiving \"sizeable equity grants\" without providing rationale, raising concerns about the directors' ability to effectively oversee the company's risk. ISS also complained that the board has not been sufficiently responsive to measures that were approved by shareholders last year.</p>\n<p>ISS is also recommending \"yes\" votes on shareholder proposals to declassify the board, to issue a diversity and inclusivity report, to report on employee arbitration, and to assign an independent committee to oversee \"human capital management.\" Tesla's board opposes the measures.</p>\n<p>Tesla's annual shareholders' meeting is set for Oct. 7 at its factory in Fremont, Calif. Another proposal, supported by both ISS and Tesla's board, would reduce directors' terms to two years, from the current three.</p>\n<p>Proposals opposed by Tesla are unlikely to be passed, even if they win a majority of votes. Elon Musk and other insiders control about 25% of voting power, and shareholder supermajorities are required for major changes. That means that without support from Musk and other insiders, nearly 90% of shareholders' support would be needed to overrule them.</p>\n<p>Tesla is hardly the only company where shareholders lack much power. Some of the country's biggest and most influential companies, such as Walmart Inc. <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WMT\">$(WMT)$</a> and <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/FB\">Facebook</a> Inc. (FB), have near total control in the hands of their founders, their families and other insiders.</p>\n<p>On the technological side, Tesla over the weekend launched a button on its vehicles' dashboard screens where owners can request a software upgrade to the Full Self-Driving beta version. According to Tesla's website, the company will grant FSB beta access to users who have a proven record of driving safely, determined by a five-factor score compiled by Tesla.</p>\n<p>Despite its name, the Full Self-Driving feature doesn't make the cars fully autonomous, and last week the head of the National Transportation Safety Board called the upgrade premature, and said Tesla's use of that term is \"misleading and irresponsible.\"</p>\n<p>Last week, San Francisco transport authorities also expressed concern about the safety of the FSB feature ahead of the software update.</p>\n<p>Federal regulators have investigated at least 25 crashes over the past five years involving Tesla's Autopilot driver-assistance feature.</p>\n<p>Tesla shares <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">$(TSLA)$</a> are up about 10% year to date, compared to the S&amp;P 500's nearly 19% gain.</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Tesla expands 'Full Self-Driving' beta tests as proxy group urges board shakeup</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; 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}\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nTesla expands 'Full Self-Driving' beta tests as proxy group urges board shakeup\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<div class=\"head\" \">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/150f88aa4d182df19190059f4a365e99);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Dow Jones </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2021-09-27 06:32</p>\n</div>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<blockquote>\n <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ISFFF\">ISS</a> calls for 'no' votes against two big-name directors, and for corporate accountability proposals.\n</blockquote>\n<p>A powerful proxy advisory firm is advising Tesla Inc. shareholders to vote against two current board members and for measures urging greater corporate accountability.</p>\n<p>Meanwhile, Tesla is expanding the number of drivers who can request the beta version of its latest \"Full Self-Driving\" feature, despite concerns from regulators.</p>\n<p>A note by Institutional Shareholder Services on Friday advised voting against directors James Murdoch, who quit the board of <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NWSAL\">News Corp</a>. in 2020, and Kimbal Musk, brother of Tesla CEO Elon Musk. ISS cited directors receiving \"sizeable equity grants\" without providing rationale, raising concerns about the directors' ability to effectively oversee the company's risk. ISS also complained that the board has not been sufficiently responsive to measures that were approved by shareholders last year.</p>\n<p>ISS is also recommending \"yes\" votes on shareholder proposals to declassify the board, to issue a diversity and inclusivity report, to report on employee arbitration, and to assign an independent committee to oversee \"human capital management.\" Tesla's board opposes the measures.</p>\n<p>Tesla's annual shareholders' meeting is set for Oct. 7 at its factory in Fremont, Calif. Another proposal, supported by both ISS and Tesla's board, would reduce directors' terms to two years, from the current three.</p>\n<p>Proposals opposed by Tesla are unlikely to be passed, even if they win a majority of votes. Elon Musk and other insiders control about 25% of voting power, and shareholder supermajorities are required for major changes. That means that without support from Musk and other insiders, nearly 90% of shareholders' support would be needed to overrule them.</p>\n<p>Tesla is hardly the only company where shareholders lack much power. Some of the country's biggest and most influential companies, such as Walmart Inc. <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WMT\">$(WMT)$</a> and <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/FB\">Facebook</a> Inc. (FB), have near total control in the hands of their founders, their families and other insiders.</p>\n<p>On the technological side, Tesla over the weekend launched a button on its vehicles' dashboard screens where owners can request a software upgrade to the Full Self-Driving beta version. According to Tesla's website, the company will grant FSB beta access to users who have a proven record of driving safely, determined by a five-factor score compiled by Tesla.</p>\n<p>Despite its name, the Full Self-Driving feature doesn't make the cars fully autonomous, and last week the head of the National Transportation Safety Board called the upgrade premature, and said Tesla's use of that term is \"misleading and irresponsible.\"</p>\n<p>Last week, San Francisco transport authorities also expressed concern about the safety of the FSB feature ahead of the software update.</p>\n<p>Federal regulators have investigated at least 25 crashes over the past five years involving Tesla's Autopilot driver-assistance feature.</p>\n<p>Tesla shares <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">$(TSLA)$</a> are up about 10% year to date, compared to the S&amp;P 500's nearly 19% gain.</p>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"TSLA":"特斯拉"},"is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2170485596","content_text":"ISS calls for 'no' votes against two big-name directors, and for corporate accountability proposals.\n\nA powerful proxy advisory firm is advising Tesla Inc. shareholders to vote against two current board members and for measures urging greater corporate accountability.\nMeanwhile, Tesla is expanding the number of drivers who can request the beta version of its latest \"Full Self-Driving\" feature, despite concerns from regulators.\nA note by Institutional Shareholder Services on Friday advised voting against directors James Murdoch, who quit the board of News Corp. in 2020, and Kimbal Musk, brother of Tesla CEO Elon Musk. ISS cited directors receiving \"sizeable equity grants\" without providing rationale, raising concerns about the directors' ability to effectively oversee the company's risk. ISS also complained that the board has not been sufficiently responsive to measures that were approved by shareholders last year.\nISS is also recommending \"yes\" votes on shareholder proposals to declassify the board, to issue a diversity and inclusivity report, to report on employee arbitration, and to assign an independent committee to oversee \"human capital management.\" Tesla's board opposes the measures.\nTesla's annual shareholders' meeting is set for Oct. 7 at its factory in Fremont, Calif. Another proposal, supported by both ISS and Tesla's board, would reduce directors' terms to two years, from the current three.\nProposals opposed by Tesla are unlikely to be passed, even if they win a majority of votes. Elon Musk and other insiders control about 25% of voting power, and shareholder supermajorities are required for major changes. That means that without support from Musk and other insiders, nearly 90% of shareholders' support would be needed to overrule them.\nTesla is hardly the only company where shareholders lack much power. Some of the country's biggest and most influential companies, such as Walmart Inc. $(WMT)$ and Facebook Inc. (FB), have near total control in the hands of their founders, their families and other insiders.\nOn the technological side, Tesla over the weekend launched a button on its vehicles' dashboard screens where owners can request a software upgrade to the Full Self-Driving beta version. According to Tesla's website, the company will grant FSB beta access to users who have a proven record of driving safely, determined by a five-factor score compiled by Tesla.\nDespite its name, the Full Self-Driving feature doesn't make the cars fully autonomous, and last week the head of the National Transportation Safety Board called the upgrade premature, and said Tesla's use of that term is \"misleading and irresponsible.\"\nLast week, San Francisco transport authorities also expressed concern about the safety of the FSB feature ahead of the software update.\nFederal regulators have investigated at least 25 crashes over the past five years involving Tesla's Autopilot driver-assistance feature.\nTesla shares $(TSLA)$ are up about 10% year to date, compared to the S&P 500's nearly 19% gain.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":451,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":868186532,"gmtCreate":1632620186326,"gmtModify":1632651472058,"author":{"id":"3582685915272084","authorId":"3582685915272084","name":"Cicaf","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/89d23feb4d833b076b3c82458b3d41f0","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Like please","listText":"Like please","text":"Like please","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":7,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/868186532","repostId":"2170909614","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2170909614","pubTimestamp":1632619163,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2170909614?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-09-26 09:19","market":"us","language":"en","title":"2 Recession-Proof Stocks to Buy Now","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2170909614","media":"Motley Fool","summary":"In both good times and bad, you can count on these stalwarts to protect your portfolio.","content":"<p>Let me be clear: No <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE.U\">one</a> knows with any level of certainly when the next recession is going to happen. No one. But that doesn't stop strategists at big banks or talking heads on financial news outlets from trying to make predictions. And particularly as of late, concerns including higher inflation, the Fed's policies, and the ongoing pandemic are all complicating things more for investors.&nbsp;</p>\n<p>There is one course of action, however, that you can take to position your portfolio for whatever happens next in the economy or the stock market. I'm talking about looking at recession-proof stocks, which perform well in both good and bad times. Here are two resilient retailers you might want to consider.&nbsp;</p>\n<h2>Winning the discount store battle&nbsp;</h2>\n<p>With sales of $33.7 billion over the past 12 months,&nbsp;<b>Dollar General</b>&nbsp;(NYSE:DG) is the largest discount-store chain in the U.S. The Tennessee-based business has over 17,683 general merchandise stores that sell snacks, beauty products, cleaning supplies, apparel and more with prices primarily less than $5. The business experienced a surge during the pandemic but in the most recent quarter, sales were essentially flat when faced with a tough year-ago comparison.&nbsp;</p>\n<p>Since Dollar General's prices are so low, it does well in downturned economic times as people try to save money. During the Great Recession, revenue didn't decline, as the company's value proposition for budget-conscious customers strengthened. Fiscal 2020 was Dollar General's 31st straight year of same-store sales (or comps) growth. The stock has been a historical winner, too, beating the <b>S&amp;P 500</b>&nbsp;over the past three-, five-, and 10-year time frames.&nbsp;</p>\n<p>A remarkable 75% of Dollar General's stores are in towns with fewer than 20,000 people, providing the business with a location-based advantage. This strategy doesn't make financial sense for many big-box retailers, which often leaves Dollar General as the primary shopping outlet in these rural communities. Choosing these areas to build its stores, averaging 7,400&nbsp;square feet in size, is also cheaper. It's no wonder the company's net income has soared 336%&nbsp;over the past decade.&nbsp;</p>\n<p>Management still has plans to add new stores at a fast clip, with 1,050 openings scheduled for this fiscal year alone. Dollar General also pays a dividend, has been a perennial share repurchaser, and trades for a reasonable 21 times forward earnings. Add this discount retailer to your shopping bag if you're worried about a looming recession.&nbsp;</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b3d4a244507fb92fcac35bd309bdc089\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"560\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>Image source: Getty Images.</p>\n<h2>A booming auto parts chain&nbsp;</h2>\n<p>Another top-notch recession-proof business to consider is <b>O'Reilly Automotive</b>&nbsp;(NASDAQ:ORLY). Operating in a boring sector of the economy, this company thrived during the pandemic as consumers increased their spending on auto repairs. And the momentum is still strong. In the most recent quarter, comps jumped 9.9%. And this was after growing 16.2% in the second quarter of 2020.&nbsp;</p>\n<p>During 2008 and 2009, O'Reilly's sales increased 41.8% and 35.5%, respectively, as consumers held off purchasing new cars and instead invested in extending the life of the automobiles they already owned. But even in prosperous economic times, people tend to drive more on average, raising wear and tear on vehicles and supporting demand for the chain's products.&nbsp;</p>\n<p>O'Reilly's competitive advantage stems from a robust distribution network, which is strengthened by over 5,700 stores in the U.S. Customers are not only do-it-yourselfers, but also auto mechanics that need parts as quickly as possible to run their businesses. This is the main reason the company has defended itself against the threat of e-commerce. \"Last quarter, about three-quarters of our online sales were pick up in store or ship to store,\" CEO Greg Johnson said on the earnings&nbsp;call, demonstrating the immediacy of product need.&nbsp;</p>\n<p>Having reduced the outstanding share count by half since 2011, O'Reilly directs any cash flow left after reinvesting in the business toward buybacks, boosting investor returns. What's more, a forward price-to-earnings ratio of 22 for such a high-quality company seems to make the stock a no-brainer.&nbsp;</p>\n<p>There will always be fears on investors' minds at any point in time. The best protection against this is to seek out exceptional stocks that have proven business models in any macroeconomic climate. That being said, it doesn't get much better than Dollar General and O'Reilly.&nbsp;</p>","source":"fool_stock","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>2 Recession-Proof Stocks to Buy Now</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n2 Recession-Proof Stocks to Buy Now\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-09-26 09:19 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/09/25/2-recession-proof-stocks-to-buy-now/><strong>Motley Fool</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Let me be clear: No one knows with any level of certainly when the next recession is going to happen. No one. But that doesn't stop strategists at big banks or talking heads on financial news outlets ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/09/25/2-recession-proof-stocks-to-buy-now/\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://g.foolcdn.com/image/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fg.foolcdn.com%2Feditorial%2Fimages%2F641512%2Fgettyimages-471068193.jpg&amp;w=700&amp;op=resize","relate_stocks":{"DG":"美国达乐公司"},"source_url":"https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/09/25/2-recession-proof-stocks-to-buy-now/","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2170909614","content_text":"Let me be clear: No one knows with any level of certainly when the next recession is going to happen. No one. But that doesn't stop strategists at big banks or talking heads on financial news outlets from trying to make predictions. And particularly as of late, concerns including higher inflation, the Fed's policies, and the ongoing pandemic are all complicating things more for investors. \nThere is one course of action, however, that you can take to position your portfolio for whatever happens next in the economy or the stock market. I'm talking about looking at recession-proof stocks, which perform well in both good and bad times. Here are two resilient retailers you might want to consider. \nWinning the discount store battle \nWith sales of $33.7 billion over the past 12 months, Dollar General (NYSE:DG) is the largest discount-store chain in the U.S. The Tennessee-based business has over 17,683 general merchandise stores that sell snacks, beauty products, cleaning supplies, apparel and more with prices primarily less than $5. The business experienced a surge during the pandemic but in the most recent quarter, sales were essentially flat when faced with a tough year-ago comparison. \nSince Dollar General's prices are so low, it does well in downturned economic times as people try to save money. During the Great Recession, revenue didn't decline, as the company's value proposition for budget-conscious customers strengthened. Fiscal 2020 was Dollar General's 31st straight year of same-store sales (or comps) growth. The stock has been a historical winner, too, beating the S&P 500 over the past three-, five-, and 10-year time frames. \nA remarkable 75% of Dollar General's stores are in towns with fewer than 20,000 people, providing the business with a location-based advantage. This strategy doesn't make financial sense for many big-box retailers, which often leaves Dollar General as the primary shopping outlet in these rural communities. Choosing these areas to build its stores, averaging 7,400 square feet in size, is also cheaper. It's no wonder the company's net income has soared 336% over the past decade. \nManagement still has plans to add new stores at a fast clip, with 1,050 openings scheduled for this fiscal year alone. Dollar General also pays a dividend, has been a perennial share repurchaser, and trades for a reasonable 21 times forward earnings. Add this discount retailer to your shopping bag if you're worried about a looming recession. \n\nImage source: Getty Images.\nA booming auto parts chain \nAnother top-notch recession-proof business to consider is O'Reilly Automotive (NASDAQ:ORLY). Operating in a boring sector of the economy, this company thrived during the pandemic as consumers increased their spending on auto repairs. And the momentum is still strong. In the most recent quarter, comps jumped 9.9%. And this was after growing 16.2% in the second quarter of 2020. \nDuring 2008 and 2009, O'Reilly's sales increased 41.8% and 35.5%, respectively, as consumers held off purchasing new cars and instead invested in extending the life of the automobiles they already owned. But even in prosperous economic times, people tend to drive more on average, raising wear and tear on vehicles and supporting demand for the chain's products. \nO'Reilly's competitive advantage stems from a robust distribution network, which is strengthened by over 5,700 stores in the U.S. Customers are not only do-it-yourselfers, but also auto mechanics that need parts as quickly as possible to run their businesses. This is the main reason the company has defended itself against the threat of e-commerce. \"Last quarter, about three-quarters of our online sales were pick up in store or ship to store,\" CEO Greg Johnson said on the earnings call, demonstrating the immediacy of product need. \nHaving reduced the outstanding share count by half since 2011, O'Reilly directs any cash flow left after reinvesting in the business toward buybacks, boosting investor returns. What's more, a forward price-to-earnings ratio of 22 for such a high-quality company seems to make the stock a no-brainer. \nThere will always be fears on investors' minds at any point in time. The best protection against this is to seek out exceptional stocks that have proven business models in any macroeconomic climate. That being said, it doesn't get much better than Dollar General and O'Reilly.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":463,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":865876385,"gmtCreate":1632971129372,"gmtModify":1632971245967,"author":{"id":"3582685915272084","authorId":"3582685915272084","name":"Cicaf","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/89d23feb4d833b076b3c82458b3d41f0","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Like please&nbsp;","listText":"Like please&nbsp;","text":"Like please","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/865876385","repostId":"1104172212","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1104172212","pubTimestamp":1632965278,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1104172212?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-09-30 09:27","market":"us","language":"en","title":"2021 Global Market Outlook - Q4 Update: Growing Pains","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1104172212","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Summary\n\nThe post-lockdown recovery has been powerful, and most developed economies have seen double","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p>\n<ul>\n <li>The post-lockdown recovery has been powerful, and most developed economies have seen double-digit gross domestic product (GDP) rebounds from 2020 lows.</li>\n <li>The reopening trade should resume in coming months. The cyclical stocks that comprise the value factor are reporting stronger earnings upgrades than technology-heavy growth stocks, and the value factor is cheap compared to the growth factor.</li>\n <li>The key risk is that the delta variant or similar proves resilient to vaccination or that infection rates escalate during the Northern Hemisphere winter.</li>\n</ul>\n<p>The COVID-19 delta variant, inflation and central bank tapering are unnerving investors. <b>We expect the pandemic-recovery trade to resume as inflation subsides, infection rates decline and tapering turns out to not equal tightening. Amid this backdrop, our outlook favors equities over bonds, the value factor over the growth factor and non-U.S. stocks over U.S. stocks.</b></p>\n<p><b>Introduction</b></p>\n<p>The post-lockdown recovery has transitioned from energetic youthfulness to awkward adolescence. It’s still growing, although at a slower pace, and there are worries about what happens next, particularly about monetary policy and the outlook for inflation. Theinflation spikehas been larger than expected, but we still think it istransitory, caused by base effects from when the U.S. consumer price index (CPI) fell during the lockdown last year and by temporary supply bottlenecks. Inflation may remain high over the remainder of 2021 but should decline in early 2022. This means that even though the U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed) is likely to begin tapering back on asset purchases before the end of the year, rate hikes are unlikely before the second half of 2023.</p>\n<p>Another worry is thehighly contagious COVID-19 delta variant. The evidence so far is that vaccines are effective in preventing serious COVID-19 infections. Vaccination rates are accelerating globally, and emerging economies are catching up with developed markets. Infection rates appear to have peaked globally in early September. This means the reopening of economies should continue over the remainder of 2021. The onset of winter in the northern hemisphere will be a test, but the rollout of booster vaccination shots should help prevent widescale renewed lockdowns.</p>\n<p>The conclusions from our cycle, value and sentiment (CVS) investment decision-making process are broadly unchanged from our previous quarterly report. Global equities remain expensive, with the very expensive U.S. market offsetting better value elsewhere. Sentiment is slightly overbought, but not close to dangerous levels of euphoria. The strong cycle delivers a preference for equities over bonds for at least the next 12 months, despite expensive valuations. It also reinforces our preference for thevalue equity factor over the growth factorand for non-U.S. equities to outperform the U.S. market.</p>\n<p><b>Cycle still in recovery phase</b></p>\n<p>The post-lockdown recovery has been powerful, and most developed economies have seen double-digit gross domestic product (GDP) rebounds from 2020 lows. Even so, we think the cycle is still in the recovery phase, although it is maturing. Despite strong growth, there is plenty of spare capacity. This can be seen in the employment-to-population ratio for prime-age workers in the United States. The chart below shows the ratio has recovered from the pandemic lows, but only to levels reached during the relatively mild recessions in the early 1990s and 2000s. We expect theU.S. labor-market recoveryshould still resemble a typical post-recession recovery over the next few quarters.</p>\n<p><b>U.S. EMPLOYMENT-POPULATION RATIO FOR PRIME-AGE WORKERS</b></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/28a91fe2991463e2285879c32cb1b8c7\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"982\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>The U.S. recovery, however, is more advanced than that of other developed economies. The following chart shows how far GDP has recovered, relative to the pre-COVID-19 peak in 2019. GDP is 0.8% higher in the U.S., although this level is still short relative to the pre-COVID-19 trend. GDP is 2.5% below 2019 levels in the euro area and 4.5% below in the United Kingdom. We expect more cyclical upside for economic growth outside the U.S., and this should allow market leadership to rotate toward the rest of the world.</p>\n<p><b>GDP IN Q2 2021 RELATIVE TO PRE-COVID-19 PEAK IN 2019</b></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/577d1b96aef08b71c9bdb6665a21b2ac\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"982\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p><b>Two key indicators</b></p>\n<p>Last quarter, we listed two indicators that should offer a guide to the Fed’s expected reaction to the inflation spike.</p>\n<p>The first is five-year/five-year breakeven inflation expectations, based on the pricing of Treasury Inflation Protected Securities (TIPS). This is the market’s forecast for average inflation over five years in five years’ time. It tells us that investors expect inflation will average 2.17% in the five years from late 2026 to late 2031. The TIPS yields are based on the CPI, while the Fed targets inflation as measured by the personal consumption expenditure (PCE) deflator. The two move together over time, but CPI inflation is generally around 0.25% higher than PCE inflation. A breakeven rate of 2.75% would suggest the market sees PCE inflation above 2.5% in five years’ time. Market inflation expectations are currently comfortably below the Fed’s worry point.</p>\n<p><b>WATCHPOINT INDICATOR #1: U.S. 5-YEAR/5-YEAR BREAKEVEN INFLATION RATE</b></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/13f3cf57b58f600fe6681e9015779e85\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"982\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>The second indicator is the Atlanta Fed’s Wage Growth Tracker, and this has a less-comforting message about inflation risks. It reached 3.9% in August, which isclose to the 4% thresholdwhere we judge that the Fed will become concerned about the inflationary impact on the growth of wages. A breakdown shows that the spike has been mostly driven by wages for low-skilled, young people in the leisure and hospitality industry. This suggests the surge has been caused by temporary labor supply shortages and that wage pressures should subside as economic activity normalizes. This indicator, however, will be an important watchpoint over the next few months.</p>\n<p><b>WATCHPOINT INDICATOR #2: ATLANTA FED WAGE GROWTH TRACKER</b></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a1d3ff1ca26f6d29a28f919c65531c9a\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"982\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p><b>Reopening trade still makes sense</b></p>\n<p>The reopening trade, which lifts long-term interest rates and favors cyclical and value stocks over technology and growth stocks, worked well for several months following the vaccine announcement last November. Value outperformed growth and yield curves steepened. The trade has reversed in recent months, however, amid fears that the delta variant might derail the economic recovery. The impact has been magnified by short covering in bond markets as investors, who have been short or underweight, have been forced by the rally to buy back into the market, pushing bond yields even lower.</p>\n<p>The reopening trade should resume in coming months. The cyclical stocks that comprise the value factor are reporting stronger earnings upgrades than technology-heavy growth stocks, and the value factor is cheap compared to the growth factor. Financial stocks comprise the largest sector in the MSCI World Value Index, and they should benefit from further yield-curve steepening, which boosts the profitability of banks. Long-term interest rates should rise as global growth remains above trend, delta-variant fears fade, the short squeeze unwinds and central banks begin tapering back on bond purchases.</p>\n<p>The rotation in economic growth leadership away from the United States should also help the reopening trade. The rest of the world is overweight cyclical value stocks relative to the U.S., which has a higher weight to technology stocks.</p>\n<p>Emerging market (EM) equities have been poor performers since the vaccine announcement, but there are some encouraging signs. Initially, they were held back by the exposure to technology stocks in the MSCI Emerging Markets Index and the slow rollout of COVID-19 vaccines. More recently, they have come under pressure from the slowdown in the Chinese economy and theregulatory crackdown on Chinese tech companies. The vaccine rollout across emerging markets has accelerated and policy easing in China should soon improve the growth outlook. The path of Chinese regulation is harder to predict, but it is now largely priced in, with Chinese technology companies underperforming their global peers by nearly 50% from February 2021 through mid-September.</p>\n<p>The resumption of the reopening trade should also result in U.S. dollar weakness. The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) has traded sideways since the vaccine announcement. It should weaken once investors have confidence that delta-variant risks are subsiding and realize that the Fed is likely to remain dovish as inflation risks decline. The dollar typically gains during global downturns and declines in the recovery phase. Dollar weakness should support the performance of non-U.S. markets, particularly emerging markets.</p>\n<p><b>Risks: variants, inflation, China weakness</b></p>\n<p>The key risk is that the delta variant or similar proves resilient to vaccination or that infection rates escalate during the Northern Hemisphere winter. The evidence so far is that vaccinations are highly effective in preventing serious illness. In Israel, booster shots appear to have slowed the rate of new cases.</p>\n<p>Another watchpoint is inflation and the response of central banks. Our expectation is that this year’s inflation spike is mostly transitory and that the major central banks, led by the Fed, are still two years from raising interest rates.</p>\n<p>Finally, there is the risk of a sharper-than-expected slowdown in China.Credit growth has slowed this yearand the purchasing managers’ indexes (PMI) have trended lower. Monetary and fiscal policy have been eased, however, and senior officials have signaled that more stimulus is on the way. China policy direction and credit trends will be an important watchpoint over coming months.</p>\n<p><b>Regional snapshotsUnited States</b></p>\n<p>The U.S. economy is likely to sustain above-trend growth into 2022. However, the easiest gains appear in the rear-view mirror at the end of the third quarter as the recovery phase of the business cycle matures. This is most visible for corporate earnings, where S&amp;P 500® Index earnings-per-share already sit 20% above their previous cyclical high.</p>\n<p>Strong fundamentals have helped power the stock market to new highs. Early evidence that the delta-variant wave may be fading and the potential for greater vaccine access for children are positives for a more complete recovery in the quarters ahead. The Fedlooks poised to start tapering its asset purchasesaround the end of 2021. The timing of the first rate hike will then hinge on what happens to inflation next year. Our models suggest that inflation is likely to drop back below the Fed’s 2% target in 2022. If that is correct, the Fed is likely to remain on hold into the second half of 2023.</p>\n<p>Wage inflation is a key risk to this view. It is running unusually strong for this stage of the cycle, and record hiring intentions from businesses could exhaust spare capacity in the year ahead. We expect the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield to rise moderately from 1.37% in mid-September to 1.75% in coming months.</p>\n<p>Fiscal stimulus negotiations continue to grab headlines in Washington, D.C. Thetax provisions in these billsare likely to be the most impactful for financial markets. We estimate thathigher corporate taxescould subtract about four percentage points from S&amp;P 500 earnings growth in 2022. This could create volatility and opportunity in markets. Given our strong cyclical outlook, our bias continues to be a<i>risk-on</i>preference for equities over bonds for the medium-term.</p>\n<p><b>Eurozone</b></p>\n<p>Euro area growthslowed through the third quarter but looks on track for a return to above-trend growth over the fourth quarter and into 2022. Vaccination rates are high, and the euro area has more catch-up potential than other major economies, particularly the United States. The euro area is also set to receive more fiscal support than other regions, with the European Union’s pandemic recovery fund only just starting to disburse stimulus, which will provide significant support in southern Europe. Polls in advance of Germany’s federal election on Sept. 26 suggested the electorate was moving toward the political left, which means the new government is likely to support expansionary fiscal policy and a continued dovish stance by the European Central Bank (ECB).</p>\n<p>The MSCI EMU Index, which reflects the European Economic and Monetary Union, has performed broadly in line with the S&amp;P 500 so far in 2021. We think it has potential to outperform in coming quarters. Europe’s exposure to financials and cyclically sensitive sectors such as industrials, materials and energy, and its relatively small exposure to technology, gives it the potential to outperform as delta-variant fears subside, economic activity picks up and yield curves in Europe steepen.</p>\n<p><b>United Kingdom</b></p>\n<p>As of mid-year, UK GDP was still nearly 4.5% below its pre-pandemic peak. We see plenty of scope for strong catch-up growth as borders are fully reopened and activity normalizes. Supply bottlenecks and labor shortages have triggered a sharp rise in underlying inflation and created concerns that the Bank of England (BoE) may start rate hikes in the first half of 2022. We think the BoE is unlikely to be that aggressive. We expect inflation to decline in early 2022 as supply constraints ease, which should convince the BoE to delay rate hikes.</p>\n<p>The FTSE 100 Index is the cheapest of the major developed equity markets in late 2021, and this should help it reflect higher returns than other markets over the next decade. Around 70% of UK corporate earnings come from offshore, so one near-term risk is that further strengthening of British sterling dampens earnings growth. The other risks are mostly around policy missteps, for example, early tightening by the Bank of England.</p>\n<p><b>Japan</b></p>\n<p>The Japanese economy is expected to get a shot in the arm as rising vaccination rates improve mobility and reduce the risk of further lockdowns, and as political leadership changes result in more fiscal stimulus: the Japanese election is due to be held before Nov. 28. Japanese equities look slightly more expensive than other regions such as the UK and Europe. We maintain our view that the Bank of Japan will significantly lag other central banks in normalizing policy.</p>\n<p><b>China</b></p>\n<p>We expect Chinese economic growth to berobust over the next 12 months, supported by a post-lockdown jump in consumer spending and incremental fiscal and monetary easing. Despite a big improvement in vaccination rates,COVID-19 outbreaks remain a riskgiven the Chinese government’s zero-tolerance approach. The major consumer technology companies have seen significant drops in stock prices recently due to more aggressive regulation. Some uncertainty remains around thepath of future regulation, especially as it relates to technology companies, and as a result we expect investors will remain cautious on Chinese equities in the coming months. The property market, particularly property developers as recently highlighted by Evergrande’s debt crisis, remains a risk that we are monitoring closely.</p>\n<p><b>Canada</b></p>\n<p>Canada leads the G71countries in terms of the vaccination rollout, which should minimize the risk of large-scale lockdowns over winter. The delta variant has taken an economic toll, however, with industry consensus projections now predicting 5% GDP growth in 2021 versus estimates of more than 6% just three months ago. Even so, growth remains above-trend and the odds of additional fiscal expenditures to support the economy have increased. This means that weaker growth due to COVID-19 is unlikely to change the Bank of Canada's (BoC) tightening bias.</p>\n<p>Tapering of asset purchasesshould be complete by the end of the first quarter of 2022. BoC Governor Tiff Macklem has indicated that the reinvestment phase of the bonds held by the central bank will commence once quantitative easing has ended. This should generate an estimated C$1 billion in weekly bond purchases, down from the current pace of C$2 billion. The BoC will likely only consider shrinking its balance sheet after it has started lifting interest rates. The BoC projects that the output gap will close sometime over the second half of 2022, and that rate hikes will be considered after economic slack has disappeared. We believe that the timeline may be a tad aggressive, and a delay to 2023 for liftoff is more likely. This would better align the Canadian central bank with its American counterpart.</p>\n<p><b>Australia/New Zealand</b></p>\n<p>The Australian economy is set to return to life, with lockdowns likely to be eased in October and November. Consumer and business balance sheets continue to look healthy, which should facilitate a strong recovery. The reopening of the international border in 2022 will provide a further boost. Fiscal policy has supported the economy through the downturn, and there is potential for further stimulus in the lead-up to the federal election, which is due before the end of 2022. The Reserve Bank of Australia has begun the process of tapering its bond-purchase program, but we expect that a rise in the cash rate is unlikely until at least the second half of 2023.</p>\n<p>New Zealand’s most recent lockdown will drag on Q3 GDP, but similar to Australia, we expect a solid rebound as the economy reopens. The government aims to provide a vaccine to all adults by the end of 2021, after which borders will gradually reopen. This will provide a boost, particularly to tourism-exposed sectors. Despite having recently put off hiking interest rates due to the recent lockdown, we expect the Reserve Bank of New Zealand will start raising rates this year. Even though they have significantly underperformed global equities this year, New Zealand equities still screen as relatively expensive compared to other regions.</p>\n<p><b>Asset-class preferences</b></p>\n<p>Our cycle, value and sentiment investment decision-making process in late September 2021 has a moderately positive medium-term view on global equities. Value is expensive across most markets except for UK equities, which are near fair value. The cycle is risk-asset supportive for the medium-term. The major economies still have spare capacity and inflation pressures appear transitory, caused by COVID-19-related supply shortages. Rate hikes by the U.S. Fed seem unlikely before the second half of 2023. Sentiment, after reaching overbought levels earlier in the year, has returned to more neutral levels.</p>\n<p><b>COMPOSITE CONTRARIAN INDICATOR: SENTIMENT SHIFTS TOWARD NEUTRAL</b></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5c527955abbc9e770d200c1d709f80d8\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"982\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<ul>\n <li>We prefer<b>non-U.S. equities</b>to U.S. equities. Stronger economic growth and steeper yield curves after the third-quarter slowdown should favor undervalued cyclical value stocks over expensive technology and growth stocks. Relative to the U.S., the rest of the world is overweight cyclical value stocks.</li>\n <li><b>Emerging markets equities</b>have been relatively poor performers this year, but there are some encouraging signs. The vaccine rollout across EM has accelerated and policy easing in China should soon boost the economic growth outlook.China’s regulatory crackdownhas caused significant underperformance by Chinese technology companies, but this should be less of a headwind going forward now that it is priced in.</li>\n <li><b>High yield</b>and<b>investment grade credit</b>are expensive on a spread basis but have support from a positive cycle view that accommodates corporate profit growth and keeps default rates low. U.S. dollar-denominated<b>emerging markets debt</b>is close to fair value in spread terms and will gain support on U.S. dollar weakness.</li>\n <li><b>Government bonds</b>are expensive, and yields should come under upward pressure as output gaps close and central banks look to taper back asset purchases. We expect the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield to rise toward 1.75% in coming months.</li>\n <li><b>Real assets</b>: Real Estate Investment Trusts (REITs) have significantly outperformed Global Listed Infrastructure (GLI) so far this year, to the extent that REITS are now expensive relative to GLI. Both should benefit from the pandemic recovery, but GLI has some catch-up potential. GLI should benefit from the global re-opening boosting domestic and international travel.<b>Commodities</b>have been the best-performing asset class this year amid strong demand and supply bottlenecks. The gains have been led by industrial metals and energy. The pace of increase should ease as supply issues are resolved, butcommodities should retain supportfrom above-trend global demand.</li>\n <li>The<b>U.S. dollar</b>has been supported this year by expectations for early Fed tightening and U.S. economic growth leadership. It should weaken as global growth leadership rotates away from the U.S. and toward Europe and other developed economies. The dollar typically gains during global downturns and declines in the recovery phase. The main beneficiary is likely to be the<b>euro</b>, which is still undervalued. We also believe<b>British sterling</b>and the economically sensitive<i>commodity currencies</i>—the<b>Australian dollar</b>, the<b>New Zealand dollar</b>and the<b>Canadian dollar</b>—can make further gains, although these currencies are not undervalued from a longer-term perspective.</li>\n</ul>\n<p><b>ASSET PERFORMANCE SINCE THE BEGINNING OF 2021</b></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/50e253becd38bd122d9fc211e7b0f583\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"982\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>1The Group of Seven is an inter-governmental political forum consisting of Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, the United Kingdom and the United States.</p>\n<p><b>Important Information</b></p>\n<p>The views in this Global Market Outlook report are subject to change at any time based upon market or other conditions and are current as of September 27, 2021. While all material is deemed to be reliable, accuracy and completeness cannot be guaranteed.</p>\n<p>Please remember that all investments carry some level of risk, including the potential loss of principal invested. They do not typically grow at an even rate of return and may experience negative growth. As with any type of portfolio structuring, attempting to reduce risk and increase return could, at certain times, unintentionally reduce returns.</p>\n<p>Keep in mind that, like all investing, multi-asset investing does not assure a profit or protect against loss.</p>\n<p>No model or group of models can offer a precise estimate of future returns available from capital markets. We remain cautious that rational analytical techniques cannot predict extremes in financial behavior, such as periods of financial euphoria or investor panic. Our models rest on the assumptions of normal and rational financial behavior. Forecasting models are inherently uncertain, subject to change at any time based on a variety of factors and can be inaccurate. Russell believes that the utility of this information is highest in evaluating the relative relationships of various components of a globally diversified portfolio. As such, the models may offer insights into the prudence of over or under weighting those components from time to time or under periods of extreme dislocation. The models are explicitly not intended as market timing signals.</p>\n<p>Forecasting represents predictions of market prices and/or volume patterns utilizing varying analytical data. It is not representative of a projection of the stock market, or of any specific investment.</p>\n<p>Investment in global, international or emerging markets may be significantly affected by political or economic conditions and regulatory requirements in a particular country. Investments in non-U.S. markets can involve risks of currency fluctuation, political and economic instability, different accounting standards and foreign taxation. Such securities may be less liquid and more volatile. Investments in emerging or developing markets involve exposure to economic structures that are generally less diverse and mature, and political systems with less stability than in more developed countries.</p>\n<p>Currency investing involves risks including fluctuations in currency values, whether the home currency or the foreign currency. They can either enhance or reduce the returns associated with foreign investments.</p>\n<p>Investments in non-U.S. markets can involve risks of currency fluctuation, political and economic instability, different accounting standards and foreign taxation.</p>\n<p>Bond investors should carefully consider risks such as interest rate, credit, default and duration risks. Greater risk, such as increased volatility, limited liquidity, prepayment, non-payment and increased default risk, is inherent in portfolios that invest in high yield (“junk”) bonds or mortgage-backed securities, especially mortgage-backed securities with exposure to sub-prime mortgages. Generally, when interest rates rise, prices of fixed income securities fall. Interest rates in the United States are at, or near, historic lows, which may increase a Fund’s exposure to risks associated with rising rates. Investment in non-U.S. and emerging market securities is subject to the risk of currency fluctuations and to economic and political risks associated with such foreign countries.</p>\n<p>Performance quoted represents past performance and should not be viewed as a guarantee of future results.</p>\n<p>The FTSE 100 Index is a market-capitalization weighted index of UK-listed blue chip companies.</p>\n<p>The S&amp;P 500® Index, or the Standard &amp; Poor’s 500, is a stock market index based on the market capitalizations of 500 large companies having common stock listed on the NYSE or NASDAQ.</p>\n<p>The MSCI EMU Index (European Economic and Monetary Union) captures large and mid cap representation across the 10 developed markets countries in the EMU. With 246 constituents, the index covers approximately 85% of the free float-adjusted market capitalization of the EMU.</p>\n<p>Indexes are unmanaged and cannot be invested in directly.</p>\n<p>Copyright © Russell Investments 2021. 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The general information contained on this website should not be acted upon without obtaining specific legal, tax, and investment advice from a licensed professional. Persons outside the United States may find more information about products and services available within their jurisdictions by going to Russell Investments' Worldwide site.</p>\n<p>Russell Investments is committed to ensuring digital accessibility for people with disabilities. We are continually improving the user experience for everyone, and applying the relevant accessibility standards.</p>\n<p>Russell Investments' ownership is composed of a majority stake held by funds managed by TA Associates, with a significant minority stake held by funds managed by Reverence Capital Partners. Russell Investments' employees and Hamilton Lane Advisors, LLC also hold minority, non-controlling, ownership stakes.</p>","source":"seekingalpha","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>2021 Global Market Outlook - Q4 Update: Growing Pains</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n2021 Global Market Outlook - Q4 Update: Growing Pains\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-09-30 09:27 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4457651-2021-global-market-outlook-q4-update-growing-pains><strong>seekingalpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Summary\n\nThe post-lockdown recovery has been powerful, and most developed economies have seen double-digit gross domestic product (GDP) rebounds from 2020 lows.\nThe reopening trade should resume in ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4457651-2021-global-market-outlook-q4-update-growing-pains\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"SPY":"标普500ETF",".DJI":"道琼斯",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4457651-2021-global-market-outlook-q4-update-growing-pains","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/5a36db9d73b4222bc376d24ccc48c8a4","article_id":"1104172212","content_text":"Summary\n\nThe post-lockdown recovery has been powerful, and most developed economies have seen double-digit gross domestic product (GDP) rebounds from 2020 lows.\nThe reopening trade should resume in coming months. The cyclical stocks that comprise the value factor are reporting stronger earnings upgrades than technology-heavy growth stocks, and the value factor is cheap compared to the growth factor.\nThe key risk is that the delta variant or similar proves resilient to vaccination or that infection rates escalate during the Northern Hemisphere winter.\n\nThe COVID-19 delta variant, inflation and central bank tapering are unnerving investors. We expect the pandemic-recovery trade to resume as inflation subsides, infection rates decline and tapering turns out to not equal tightening. Amid this backdrop, our outlook favors equities over bonds, the value factor over the growth factor and non-U.S. stocks over U.S. stocks.\nIntroduction\nThe post-lockdown recovery has transitioned from energetic youthfulness to awkward adolescence. It’s still growing, although at a slower pace, and there are worries about what happens next, particularly about monetary policy and the outlook for inflation. Theinflation spikehas been larger than expected, but we still think it istransitory, caused by base effects from when the U.S. consumer price index (CPI) fell during the lockdown last year and by temporary supply bottlenecks. Inflation may remain high over the remainder of 2021 but should decline in early 2022. This means that even though the U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed) is likely to begin tapering back on asset purchases before the end of the year, rate hikes are unlikely before the second half of 2023.\nAnother worry is thehighly contagious COVID-19 delta variant. The evidence so far is that vaccines are effective in preventing serious COVID-19 infections. Vaccination rates are accelerating globally, and emerging economies are catching up with developed markets. Infection rates appear to have peaked globally in early September. This means the reopening of economies should continue over the remainder of 2021. The onset of winter in the northern hemisphere will be a test, but the rollout of booster vaccination shots should help prevent widescale renewed lockdowns.\nThe conclusions from our cycle, value and sentiment (CVS) investment decision-making process are broadly unchanged from our previous quarterly report. Global equities remain expensive, with the very expensive U.S. market offsetting better value elsewhere. Sentiment is slightly overbought, but not close to dangerous levels of euphoria. The strong cycle delivers a preference for equities over bonds for at least the next 12 months, despite expensive valuations. It also reinforces our preference for thevalue equity factor over the growth factorand for non-U.S. equities to outperform the U.S. market.\nCycle still in recovery phase\nThe post-lockdown recovery has been powerful, and most developed economies have seen double-digit gross domestic product (GDP) rebounds from 2020 lows. Even so, we think the cycle is still in the recovery phase, although it is maturing. Despite strong growth, there is plenty of spare capacity. This can be seen in the employment-to-population ratio for prime-age workers in the United States. The chart below shows the ratio has recovered from the pandemic lows, but only to levels reached during the relatively mild recessions in the early 1990s and 2000s. We expect theU.S. labor-market recoveryshould still resemble a typical post-recession recovery over the next few quarters.\nU.S. EMPLOYMENT-POPULATION RATIO FOR PRIME-AGE WORKERS\n\nThe U.S. recovery, however, is more advanced than that of other developed economies. The following chart shows how far GDP has recovered, relative to the pre-COVID-19 peak in 2019. GDP is 0.8% higher in the U.S., although this level is still short relative to the pre-COVID-19 trend. GDP is 2.5% below 2019 levels in the euro area and 4.5% below in the United Kingdom. We expect more cyclical upside for economic growth outside the U.S., and this should allow market leadership to rotate toward the rest of the world.\nGDP IN Q2 2021 RELATIVE TO PRE-COVID-19 PEAK IN 2019\n\nTwo key indicators\nLast quarter, we listed two indicators that should offer a guide to the Fed’s expected reaction to the inflation spike.\nThe first is five-year/five-year breakeven inflation expectations, based on the pricing of Treasury Inflation Protected Securities (TIPS). This is the market’s forecast for average inflation over five years in five years’ time. It tells us that investors expect inflation will average 2.17% in the five years from late 2026 to late 2031. The TIPS yields are based on the CPI, while the Fed targets inflation as measured by the personal consumption expenditure (PCE) deflator. The two move together over time, but CPI inflation is generally around 0.25% higher than PCE inflation. A breakeven rate of 2.75% would suggest the market sees PCE inflation above 2.5% in five years’ time. Market inflation expectations are currently comfortably below the Fed’s worry point.\nWATCHPOINT INDICATOR #1: U.S. 5-YEAR/5-YEAR BREAKEVEN INFLATION RATE\n\nThe second indicator is the Atlanta Fed’s Wage Growth Tracker, and this has a less-comforting message about inflation risks. It reached 3.9% in August, which isclose to the 4% thresholdwhere we judge that the Fed will become concerned about the inflationary impact on the growth of wages. A breakdown shows that the spike has been mostly driven by wages for low-skilled, young people in the leisure and hospitality industry. This suggests the surge has been caused by temporary labor supply shortages and that wage pressures should subside as economic activity normalizes. This indicator, however, will be an important watchpoint over the next few months.\nWATCHPOINT INDICATOR #2: ATLANTA FED WAGE GROWTH TRACKER\n\nReopening trade still makes sense\nThe reopening trade, which lifts long-term interest rates and favors cyclical and value stocks over technology and growth stocks, worked well for several months following the vaccine announcement last November. Value outperformed growth and yield curves steepened. The trade has reversed in recent months, however, amid fears that the delta variant might derail the economic recovery. The impact has been magnified by short covering in bond markets as investors, who have been short or underweight, have been forced by the rally to buy back into the market, pushing bond yields even lower.\nThe reopening trade should resume in coming months. The cyclical stocks that comprise the value factor are reporting stronger earnings upgrades than technology-heavy growth stocks, and the value factor is cheap compared to the growth factor. Financial stocks comprise the largest sector in the MSCI World Value Index, and they should benefit from further yield-curve steepening, which boosts the profitability of banks. Long-term interest rates should rise as global growth remains above trend, delta-variant fears fade, the short squeeze unwinds and central banks begin tapering back on bond purchases.\nThe rotation in economic growth leadership away from the United States should also help the reopening trade. The rest of the world is overweight cyclical value stocks relative to the U.S., which has a higher weight to technology stocks.\nEmerging market (EM) equities have been poor performers since the vaccine announcement, but there are some encouraging signs. Initially, they were held back by the exposure to technology stocks in the MSCI Emerging Markets Index and the slow rollout of COVID-19 vaccines. More recently, they have come under pressure from the slowdown in the Chinese economy and theregulatory crackdown on Chinese tech companies. The vaccine rollout across emerging markets has accelerated and policy easing in China should soon improve the growth outlook. The path of Chinese regulation is harder to predict, but it is now largely priced in, with Chinese technology companies underperforming their global peers by nearly 50% from February 2021 through mid-September.\nThe resumption of the reopening trade should also result in U.S. dollar weakness. The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) has traded sideways since the vaccine announcement. It should weaken once investors have confidence that delta-variant risks are subsiding and realize that the Fed is likely to remain dovish as inflation risks decline. The dollar typically gains during global downturns and declines in the recovery phase. Dollar weakness should support the performance of non-U.S. markets, particularly emerging markets.\nRisks: variants, inflation, China weakness\nThe key risk is that the delta variant or similar proves resilient to vaccination or that infection rates escalate during the Northern Hemisphere winter. The evidence so far is that vaccinations are highly effective in preventing serious illness. In Israel, booster shots appear to have slowed the rate of new cases.\nAnother watchpoint is inflation and the response of central banks. Our expectation is that this year’s inflation spike is mostly transitory and that the major central banks, led by the Fed, are still two years from raising interest rates.\nFinally, there is the risk of a sharper-than-expected slowdown in China.Credit growth has slowed this yearand the purchasing managers’ indexes (PMI) have trended lower. Monetary and fiscal policy have been eased, however, and senior officials have signaled that more stimulus is on the way. China policy direction and credit trends will be an important watchpoint over coming months.\nRegional snapshotsUnited States\nThe U.S. economy is likely to sustain above-trend growth into 2022. However, the easiest gains appear in the rear-view mirror at the end of the third quarter as the recovery phase of the business cycle matures. This is most visible for corporate earnings, where S&P 500® Index earnings-per-share already sit 20% above their previous cyclical high.\nStrong fundamentals have helped power the stock market to new highs. Early evidence that the delta-variant wave may be fading and the potential for greater vaccine access for children are positives for a more complete recovery in the quarters ahead. The Fedlooks poised to start tapering its asset purchasesaround the end of 2021. The timing of the first rate hike will then hinge on what happens to inflation next year. Our models suggest that inflation is likely to drop back below the Fed’s 2% target in 2022. If that is correct, the Fed is likely to remain on hold into the second half of 2023.\nWage inflation is a key risk to this view. It is running unusually strong for this stage of the cycle, and record hiring intentions from businesses could exhaust spare capacity in the year ahead. We expect the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield to rise moderately from 1.37% in mid-September to 1.75% in coming months.\nFiscal stimulus negotiations continue to grab headlines in Washington, D.C. Thetax provisions in these billsare likely to be the most impactful for financial markets. We estimate thathigher corporate taxescould subtract about four percentage points from S&P 500 earnings growth in 2022. This could create volatility and opportunity in markets. Given our strong cyclical outlook, our bias continues to be arisk-onpreference for equities over bonds for the medium-term.\nEurozone\nEuro area growthslowed through the third quarter but looks on track for a return to above-trend growth over the fourth quarter and into 2022. Vaccination rates are high, and the euro area has more catch-up potential than other major economies, particularly the United States. The euro area is also set to receive more fiscal support than other regions, with the European Union’s pandemic recovery fund only just starting to disburse stimulus, which will provide significant support in southern Europe. Polls in advance of Germany’s federal election on Sept. 26 suggested the electorate was moving toward the political left, which means the new government is likely to support expansionary fiscal policy and a continued dovish stance by the European Central Bank (ECB).\nThe MSCI EMU Index, which reflects the European Economic and Monetary Union, has performed broadly in line with the S&P 500 so far in 2021. We think it has potential to outperform in coming quarters. Europe’s exposure to financials and cyclically sensitive sectors such as industrials, materials and energy, and its relatively small exposure to technology, gives it the potential to outperform as delta-variant fears subside, economic activity picks up and yield curves in Europe steepen.\nUnited Kingdom\nAs of mid-year, UK GDP was still nearly 4.5% below its pre-pandemic peak. We see plenty of scope for strong catch-up growth as borders are fully reopened and activity normalizes. Supply bottlenecks and labor shortages have triggered a sharp rise in underlying inflation and created concerns that the Bank of England (BoE) may start rate hikes in the first half of 2022. We think the BoE is unlikely to be that aggressive. We expect inflation to decline in early 2022 as supply constraints ease, which should convince the BoE to delay rate hikes.\nThe FTSE 100 Index is the cheapest of the major developed equity markets in late 2021, and this should help it reflect higher returns than other markets over the next decade. Around 70% of UK corporate earnings come from offshore, so one near-term risk is that further strengthening of British sterling dampens earnings growth. The other risks are mostly around policy missteps, for example, early tightening by the Bank of England.\nJapan\nThe Japanese economy is expected to get a shot in the arm as rising vaccination rates improve mobility and reduce the risk of further lockdowns, and as political leadership changes result in more fiscal stimulus: the Japanese election is due to be held before Nov. 28. Japanese equities look slightly more expensive than other regions such as the UK and Europe. We maintain our view that the Bank of Japan will significantly lag other central banks in normalizing policy.\nChina\nWe expect Chinese economic growth to berobust over the next 12 months, supported by a post-lockdown jump in consumer spending and incremental fiscal and monetary easing. Despite a big improvement in vaccination rates,COVID-19 outbreaks remain a riskgiven the Chinese government’s zero-tolerance approach. The major consumer technology companies have seen significant drops in stock prices recently due to more aggressive regulation. Some uncertainty remains around thepath of future regulation, especially as it relates to technology companies, and as a result we expect investors will remain cautious on Chinese equities in the coming months. The property market, particularly property developers as recently highlighted by Evergrande’s debt crisis, remains a risk that we are monitoring closely.\nCanada\nCanada leads the G71countries in terms of the vaccination rollout, which should minimize the risk of large-scale lockdowns over winter. The delta variant has taken an economic toll, however, with industry consensus projections now predicting 5% GDP growth in 2021 versus estimates of more than 6% just three months ago. Even so, growth remains above-trend and the odds of additional fiscal expenditures to support the economy have increased. This means that weaker growth due to COVID-19 is unlikely to change the Bank of Canada's (BoC) tightening bias.\nTapering of asset purchasesshould be complete by the end of the first quarter of 2022. BoC Governor Tiff Macklem has indicated that the reinvestment phase of the bonds held by the central bank will commence once quantitative easing has ended. This should generate an estimated C$1 billion in weekly bond purchases, down from the current pace of C$2 billion. The BoC will likely only consider shrinking its balance sheet after it has started lifting interest rates. The BoC projects that the output gap will close sometime over the second half of 2022, and that rate hikes will be considered after economic slack has disappeared. We believe that the timeline may be a tad aggressive, and a delay to 2023 for liftoff is more likely. This would better align the Canadian central bank with its American counterpart.\nAustralia/New Zealand\nThe Australian economy is set to return to life, with lockdowns likely to be eased in October and November. Consumer and business balance sheets continue to look healthy, which should facilitate a strong recovery. The reopening of the international border in 2022 will provide a further boost. Fiscal policy has supported the economy through the downturn, and there is potential for further stimulus in the lead-up to the federal election, which is due before the end of 2022. The Reserve Bank of Australia has begun the process of tapering its bond-purchase program, but we expect that a rise in the cash rate is unlikely until at least the second half of 2023.\nNew Zealand’s most recent lockdown will drag on Q3 GDP, but similar to Australia, we expect a solid rebound as the economy reopens. The government aims to provide a vaccine to all adults by the end of 2021, after which borders will gradually reopen. This will provide a boost, particularly to tourism-exposed sectors. Despite having recently put off hiking interest rates due to the recent lockdown, we expect the Reserve Bank of New Zealand will start raising rates this year. Even though they have significantly underperformed global equities this year, New Zealand equities still screen as relatively expensive compared to other regions.\nAsset-class preferences\nOur cycle, value and sentiment investment decision-making process in late September 2021 has a moderately positive medium-term view on global equities. Value is expensive across most markets except for UK equities, which are near fair value. The cycle is risk-asset supportive for the medium-term. The major economies still have spare capacity and inflation pressures appear transitory, caused by COVID-19-related supply shortages. Rate hikes by the U.S. Fed seem unlikely before the second half of 2023. Sentiment, after reaching overbought levels earlier in the year, has returned to more neutral levels.\nCOMPOSITE CONTRARIAN INDICATOR: SENTIMENT SHIFTS TOWARD NEUTRAL\n\n\nWe prefernon-U.S. equitiesto U.S. equities. Stronger economic growth and steeper yield curves after the third-quarter slowdown should favor undervalued cyclical value stocks over expensive technology and growth stocks. Relative to the U.S., the rest of the world is overweight cyclical value stocks.\nEmerging markets equitieshave been relatively poor performers this year, but there are some encouraging signs. The vaccine rollout across EM has accelerated and policy easing in China should soon boost the economic growth outlook.China’s regulatory crackdownhas caused significant underperformance by Chinese technology companies, but this should be less of a headwind going forward now that it is priced in.\nHigh yieldandinvestment grade creditare expensive on a spread basis but have support from a positive cycle view that accommodates corporate profit growth and keeps default rates low. U.S. dollar-denominatedemerging markets debtis close to fair value in spread terms and will gain support on U.S. dollar weakness.\nGovernment bondsare expensive, and yields should come under upward pressure as output gaps close and central banks look to taper back asset purchases. We expect the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield to rise toward 1.75% in coming months.\nReal assets: Real Estate Investment Trusts (REITs) have significantly outperformed Global Listed Infrastructure (GLI) so far this year, to the extent that REITS are now expensive relative to GLI. Both should benefit from the pandemic recovery, but GLI has some catch-up potential. GLI should benefit from the global re-opening boosting domestic and international travel.Commoditieshave been the best-performing asset class this year amid strong demand and supply bottlenecks. The gains have been led by industrial metals and energy. The pace of increase should ease as supply issues are resolved, butcommodities should retain supportfrom above-trend global demand.\nTheU.S. dollarhas been supported this year by expectations for early Fed tightening and U.S. economic growth leadership. It should weaken as global growth leadership rotates away from the U.S. and toward Europe and other developed economies. The dollar typically gains during global downturns and declines in the recovery phase. The main beneficiary is likely to be theeuro, which is still undervalued. We also believeBritish sterlingand the economically sensitivecommodity currencies—theAustralian dollar, theNew Zealand dollarand theCanadian dollar—can make further gains, although these currencies are not undervalued from a longer-term perspective.\n\nASSET PERFORMANCE SINCE THE BEGINNING OF 2021\n\n1The Group of Seven is an inter-governmental political forum consisting of Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, the United Kingdom and the United States.\nImportant Information\nThe views in this Global Market Outlook report are subject to change at any time based upon market or other conditions and are current as of September 27, 2021. While all material is deemed to be reliable, accuracy and completeness cannot be guaranteed.\nPlease remember that all investments carry some level of risk, including the potential loss of principal invested. They do not typically grow at an even rate of return and may experience negative growth. As with any type of portfolio structuring, attempting to reduce risk and increase return could, at certain times, unintentionally reduce returns.\nKeep in mind that, like all investing, multi-asset investing does not assure a profit or protect against loss.\nNo model or group of models can offer a precise estimate of future returns available from capital markets. We remain cautious that rational analytical techniques cannot predict extremes in financial behavior, such as periods of financial euphoria or investor panic. Our models rest on the assumptions of normal and rational financial behavior. Forecasting models are inherently uncertain, subject to change at any time based on a variety of factors and can be inaccurate. Russell believes that the utility of this information is highest in evaluating the relative relationships of various components of a globally diversified portfolio. As such, the models may offer insights into the prudence of over or under weighting those components from time to time or under periods of extreme dislocation. The models are explicitly not intended as market timing signals.\nForecasting represents predictions of market prices and/or volume patterns utilizing varying analytical data. It is not representative of a projection of the stock market, or of any specific investment.\nInvestment in global, international or emerging markets may be significantly affected by political or economic conditions and regulatory requirements in a particular country. Investments in non-U.S. markets can involve risks of currency fluctuation, political and economic instability, different accounting standards and foreign taxation. Such securities may be less liquid and more volatile. Investments in emerging or developing markets involve exposure to economic structures that are generally less diverse and mature, and political systems with less stability than in more developed countries.\nCurrency investing involves risks including fluctuations in currency values, whether the home currency or the foreign currency. They can either enhance or reduce the returns associated with foreign investments.\nInvestments in non-U.S. markets can involve risks of currency fluctuation, political and economic instability, different accounting standards and foreign taxation.\nBond investors should carefully consider risks such as interest rate, credit, default and duration risks. Greater risk, such as increased volatility, limited liquidity, prepayment, non-payment and increased default risk, is inherent in portfolios that invest in high yield (“junk”) bonds or mortgage-backed securities, especially mortgage-backed securities with exposure to sub-prime mortgages. Generally, when interest rates rise, prices of fixed income securities fall. Interest rates in the United States are at, or near, historic lows, which may increase a Fund’s exposure to risks associated with rising rates. Investment in non-U.S. and emerging market securities is subject to the risk of currency fluctuations and to economic and political risks associated with such foreign countries.\nPerformance quoted represents past performance and should not be viewed as a guarantee of future results.\nThe FTSE 100 Index is a market-capitalization weighted index of UK-listed blue chip companies.\nThe S&P 500® Index, or the Standard & Poor’s 500, is a stock market index based on the market capitalizations of 500 large companies having common stock listed on the NYSE or NASDAQ.\nThe MSCI EMU Index (European Economic and Monetary Union) captures large and mid cap representation across the 10 developed markets countries in the EMU. With 246 constituents, the index covers approximately 85% of the free float-adjusted market capitalization of the EMU.\nIndexes are unmanaged and cannot be invested in directly.\nCopyright © Russell Investments 2021. All rights reserved. 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Russell Investments' employees and Hamilton Lane Advisors, LLC also hold minority, non-controlling, ownership stakes.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":446,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":868708823,"gmtCreate":1632703391562,"gmtModify":1632798489665,"author":{"id":"3582685915272084","authorId":"3582685915272084","name":"Cicaf","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/89d23feb4d833b076b3c82458b3d41f0","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Like please&nbsp;","listText":"Like please&nbsp;","text":"Like please","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/868708823","repostId":"2170485596","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":451,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":868186532,"gmtCreate":1632620186326,"gmtModify":1632651472058,"author":{"id":"3582685915272084","authorId":"3582685915272084","name":"Cicaf","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/89d23feb4d833b076b3c82458b3d41f0","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Like please","listText":"Like please","text":"Like please","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":7,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/868186532","repostId":"2170909614","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2170909614","pubTimestamp":1632619163,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2170909614?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-09-26 09:19","market":"us","language":"en","title":"2 Recession-Proof Stocks to Buy Now","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2170909614","media":"Motley Fool","summary":"In both good times and bad, you can count on these stalwarts to protect your portfolio.","content":"<p>Let me be clear: No <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE.U\">one</a> knows with any level of certainly when the next recession is going to happen. No one. But that doesn't stop strategists at big banks or talking heads on financial news outlets from trying to make predictions. And particularly as of late, concerns including higher inflation, the Fed's policies, and the ongoing pandemic are all complicating things more for investors.&nbsp;</p>\n<p>There is one course of action, however, that you can take to position your portfolio for whatever happens next in the economy or the stock market. I'm talking about looking at recession-proof stocks, which perform well in both good and bad times. Here are two resilient retailers you might want to consider.&nbsp;</p>\n<h2>Winning the discount store battle&nbsp;</h2>\n<p>With sales of $33.7 billion over the past 12 months,&nbsp;<b>Dollar General</b>&nbsp;(NYSE:DG) is the largest discount-store chain in the U.S. The Tennessee-based business has over 17,683 general merchandise stores that sell snacks, beauty products, cleaning supplies, apparel and more with prices primarily less than $5. The business experienced a surge during the pandemic but in the most recent quarter, sales were essentially flat when faced with a tough year-ago comparison.&nbsp;</p>\n<p>Since Dollar General's prices are so low, it does well in downturned economic times as people try to save money. During the Great Recession, revenue didn't decline, as the company's value proposition for budget-conscious customers strengthened. Fiscal 2020 was Dollar General's 31st straight year of same-store sales (or comps) growth. The stock has been a historical winner, too, beating the <b>S&amp;P 500</b>&nbsp;over the past three-, five-, and 10-year time frames.&nbsp;</p>\n<p>A remarkable 75% of Dollar General's stores are in towns with fewer than 20,000 people, providing the business with a location-based advantage. This strategy doesn't make financial sense for many big-box retailers, which often leaves Dollar General as the primary shopping outlet in these rural communities. Choosing these areas to build its stores, averaging 7,400&nbsp;square feet in size, is also cheaper. It's no wonder the company's net income has soared 336%&nbsp;over the past decade.&nbsp;</p>\n<p>Management still has plans to add new stores at a fast clip, with 1,050 openings scheduled for this fiscal year alone. Dollar General also pays a dividend, has been a perennial share repurchaser, and trades for a reasonable 21 times forward earnings. Add this discount retailer to your shopping bag if you're worried about a looming recession.&nbsp;</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b3d4a244507fb92fcac35bd309bdc089\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"560\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>Image source: Getty Images.</p>\n<h2>A booming auto parts chain&nbsp;</h2>\n<p>Another top-notch recession-proof business to consider is <b>O'Reilly Automotive</b>&nbsp;(NASDAQ:ORLY). Operating in a boring sector of the economy, this company thrived during the pandemic as consumers increased their spending on auto repairs. And the momentum is still strong. In the most recent quarter, comps jumped 9.9%. And this was after growing 16.2% in the second quarter of 2020.&nbsp;</p>\n<p>During 2008 and 2009, O'Reilly's sales increased 41.8% and 35.5%, respectively, as consumers held off purchasing new cars and instead invested in extending the life of the automobiles they already owned. But even in prosperous economic times, people tend to drive more on average, raising wear and tear on vehicles and supporting demand for the chain's products.&nbsp;</p>\n<p>O'Reilly's competitive advantage stems from a robust distribution network, which is strengthened by over 5,700 stores in the U.S. Customers are not only do-it-yourselfers, but also auto mechanics that need parts as quickly as possible to run their businesses. This is the main reason the company has defended itself against the threat of e-commerce. \"Last quarter, about three-quarters of our online sales were pick up in store or ship to store,\" CEO Greg Johnson said on the earnings&nbsp;call, demonstrating the immediacy of product need.&nbsp;</p>\n<p>Having reduced the outstanding share count by half since 2011, O'Reilly directs any cash flow left after reinvesting in the business toward buybacks, boosting investor returns. What's more, a forward price-to-earnings ratio of 22 for such a high-quality company seems to make the stock a no-brainer.&nbsp;</p>\n<p>There will always be fears on investors' minds at any point in time. The best protection against this is to seek out exceptional stocks that have proven business models in any macroeconomic climate. That being said, it doesn't get much better than Dollar General and O'Reilly.&nbsp;</p>","source":"fool_stock","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>2 Recession-Proof Stocks to Buy Now</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n2 Recession-Proof Stocks to Buy Now\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-09-26 09:19 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/09/25/2-recession-proof-stocks-to-buy-now/><strong>Motley Fool</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Let me be clear: No one knows with any level of certainly when the next recession is going to happen. No one. But that doesn't stop strategists at big banks or talking heads on financial news outlets ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/09/25/2-recession-proof-stocks-to-buy-now/\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://g.foolcdn.com/image/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fg.foolcdn.com%2Feditorial%2Fimages%2F641512%2Fgettyimages-471068193.jpg&amp;w=700&amp;op=resize","relate_stocks":{"DG":"美国达乐公司"},"source_url":"https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/09/25/2-recession-proof-stocks-to-buy-now/","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2170909614","content_text":"Let me be clear: No one knows with any level of certainly when the next recession is going to happen. No one. But that doesn't stop strategists at big banks or talking heads on financial news outlets from trying to make predictions. And particularly as of late, concerns including higher inflation, the Fed's policies, and the ongoing pandemic are all complicating things more for investors. \nThere is one course of action, however, that you can take to position your portfolio for whatever happens next in the economy or the stock market. I'm talking about looking at recession-proof stocks, which perform well in both good and bad times. Here are two resilient retailers you might want to consider. \nWinning the discount store battle \nWith sales of $33.7 billion over the past 12 months, Dollar General (NYSE:DG) is the largest discount-store chain in the U.S. The Tennessee-based business has over 17,683 general merchandise stores that sell snacks, beauty products, cleaning supplies, apparel and more with prices primarily less than $5. The business experienced a surge during the pandemic but in the most recent quarter, sales were essentially flat when faced with a tough year-ago comparison. \nSince Dollar General's prices are so low, it does well in downturned economic times as people try to save money. During the Great Recession, revenue didn't decline, as the company's value proposition for budget-conscious customers strengthened. Fiscal 2020 was Dollar General's 31st straight year of same-store sales (or comps) growth. The stock has been a historical winner, too, beating the S&P 500 over the past three-, five-, and 10-year time frames. \nA remarkable 75% of Dollar General's stores are in towns with fewer than 20,000 people, providing the business with a location-based advantage. This strategy doesn't make financial sense for many big-box retailers, which often leaves Dollar General as the primary shopping outlet in these rural communities. Choosing these areas to build its stores, averaging 7,400 square feet in size, is also cheaper. It's no wonder the company's net income has soared 336% over the past decade. \nManagement still has plans to add new stores at a fast clip, with 1,050 openings scheduled for this fiscal year alone. Dollar General also pays a dividend, has been a perennial share repurchaser, and trades for a reasonable 21 times forward earnings. Add this discount retailer to your shopping bag if you're worried about a looming recession. \n\nImage source: Getty Images.\nA booming auto parts chain \nAnother top-notch recession-proof business to consider is O'Reilly Automotive (NASDAQ:ORLY). Operating in a boring sector of the economy, this company thrived during the pandemic as consumers increased their spending on auto repairs. And the momentum is still strong. In the most recent quarter, comps jumped 9.9%. And this was after growing 16.2% in the second quarter of 2020. \nDuring 2008 and 2009, O'Reilly's sales increased 41.8% and 35.5%, respectively, as consumers held off purchasing new cars and instead invested in extending the life of the automobiles they already owned. But even in prosperous economic times, people tend to drive more on average, raising wear and tear on vehicles and supporting demand for the chain's products. \nO'Reilly's competitive advantage stems from a robust distribution network, which is strengthened by over 5,700 stores in the U.S. Customers are not only do-it-yourselfers, but also auto mechanics that need parts as quickly as possible to run their businesses. This is the main reason the company has defended itself against the threat of e-commerce. \"Last quarter, about three-quarters of our online sales were pick up in store or ship to store,\" CEO Greg Johnson said on the earnings call, demonstrating the immediacy of product need. \nHaving reduced the outstanding share count by half since 2011, O'Reilly directs any cash flow left after reinvesting in the business toward buybacks, boosting investor returns. What's more, a forward price-to-earnings ratio of 22 for such a high-quality company seems to make the stock a no-brainer. \nThere will always be fears on investors' minds at any point in time. The best protection against this is to seek out exceptional stocks that have proven business models in any macroeconomic climate. That being said, it doesn't get much better than Dollar General and O'Reilly.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":463,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":842214989,"gmtCreate":1636180807056,"gmtModify":1636180807498,"author":{"id":"3582685915272084","authorId":"3582685915272084","name":"Cicaf","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/89d23feb4d833b076b3c82458b3d41f0","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Like please","listText":"Like please","text":"Like please","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/842214989","repostId":"1173813098","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":334,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":848532031,"gmtCreate":1636010904064,"gmtModify":1636010904480,"author":{"id":"3582685915272084","authorId":"3582685915272084","name":"Cicaf","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/89d23feb4d833b076b3c82458b3d41f0","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Like please","listText":"Like please","text":"Like please","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/848532031","repostId":"1198107375","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1198107375","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Stock Market Quotes, Business News, Financial News, Trading Ideas, and Stock Research by Professionals","home_visible":0,"media_name":"Benzinga","id":"1052270027","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d08bf7808052c0ca9deb4e944cae32aa"},"pubTimestamp":1636010650,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1198107375?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-11-04 15:24","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Cathie Wood Rushes To Lower Exposure In Zillow — Also Trims Tesla Stake And Buys These Stocks On Wednesday","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1198107375","media":"Benzinga","summary":"Cathie Wood’s investment management firm Ark Invest on Wednesday significantly lowered its exposure ","content":"<p><b>Cathie Wood</b>’s investment management firm&nbsp;<b>Ark Invest</b>&nbsp;on Wednesday significantly lowered its&nbsp;exposure in&nbsp;<b>ZillowGroup Class C</b>&nbsp;as the stock sank after the company reported a&nbsp;third-quarter loss and said it would be winding down its home buying business.</p>\n<p>The popular money managing firm sold 3.9 million shares — estimated to be worth $256.9 million — in the online real estate marketplace company.</p>\n<p>Zillow Class C shares closed 25% lower at $65.47 a share on Wednesday. The stock is down about 50% so far this year.</p>\n<p>The company said it plans to wind down its home buying unit, Offers. Zillow said it would&nbsp;also cut 25% of its workforce.</p>\n<p>Just weeks after Zillow announced it would be pausing its iBuying of U.S. houses — Bloomberg reported this week that Zillow has actually sold 7,000 homes from its inventory.</p>\n<p>Ark Invest deployed three of its active ETFs to sell the shares in Zillow. These are the&nbsp;<b>Ark Innovation ETF</b>, the&nbsp;<b>Ark Next Generation Internet ETF</b>&nbsp;and the&nbsp;<b>Ark Fintech Innovation ETF</b>.</p>\n<p>The three ETFs held 10.59 million shares — estimated to be worth $924 million — in Zillow, ahead of Wednesday’s trade.&nbsp; Ark Invest had piled up shares in Zillow ahead of the company’s third quarter results on Wednesday.</p>\n<p>Here are a few other key Ark Invest trades from Wednesday:</p>\n<ul>\n <li>Bought 226,377 shares — estimated to be worth $64.7 million — in&nbsp;<b>Zoom Video Communications Inc</b>&nbsp;on Tuesday. Shares of the company closed 1.92% higher at $285.66 a share.</li>\n <li>Sold 17,787 shares — estimated to be worth $21.59 million — in&nbsp;<b>Tesla Inc</b>. Including the latest sale Ark Invest has sold about $1.44 billion worth of shares in Tesla since the start of September. Shares closed 3.57% higher at $1,213.86 a share.</li>\n <li>Bought 722,344 shares — estimated to be worth $26.75 million — in&nbsp;<b>RobinhoodMarkets Inc</b>&nbsp;on the day shares closed 5.86% higher at $37.04 a share.</li>\n <li>Bought 193,482 shares — estimated to be worth $9 million — in&nbsp;<b>Draftkings Inc</b>. The stock closed 1.6% lower at $46.84 a share.</li>\n</ul>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Cathie Wood Rushes To Lower Exposure In Zillow — Also Trims Tesla Stake And Buys These Stocks On Wednesday</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nCathie Wood Rushes To Lower Exposure In Zillow — Also Trims Tesla Stake And Buys These Stocks On Wednesday\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<div class=\"head\" \">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/d08bf7808052c0ca9deb4e944cae32aa);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Benzinga </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2021-11-04 15:24</p>\n</div>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>Cathie Wood</b>’s investment management firm&nbsp;<b>Ark Invest</b>&nbsp;on Wednesday significantly lowered its&nbsp;exposure in&nbsp;<b>ZillowGroup Class C</b>&nbsp;as the stock sank after the company reported a&nbsp;third-quarter loss and said it would be winding down its home buying business.</p>\n<p>The popular money managing firm sold 3.9 million shares — estimated to be worth $256.9 million — in the online real estate marketplace company.</p>\n<p>Zillow Class C shares closed 25% lower at $65.47 a share on Wednesday. The stock is down about 50% so far this year.</p>\n<p>The company said it plans to wind down its home buying unit, Offers. Zillow said it would&nbsp;also cut 25% of its workforce.</p>\n<p>Just weeks after Zillow announced it would be pausing its iBuying of U.S. houses — Bloomberg reported this week that Zillow has actually sold 7,000 homes from its inventory.</p>\n<p>Ark Invest deployed three of its active ETFs to sell the shares in Zillow. These are the&nbsp;<b>Ark Innovation ETF</b>, the&nbsp;<b>Ark Next Generation Internet ETF</b>&nbsp;and the&nbsp;<b>Ark Fintech Innovation ETF</b>.</p>\n<p>The three ETFs held 10.59 million shares — estimated to be worth $924 million — in Zillow, ahead of Wednesday’s trade.&nbsp; Ark Invest had piled up shares in Zillow ahead of the company’s third quarter results on Wednesday.</p>\n<p>Here are a few other key Ark Invest trades from Wednesday:</p>\n<ul>\n <li>Bought 226,377 shares — estimated to be worth $64.7 million — in&nbsp;<b>Zoom Video Communications Inc</b>&nbsp;on Tuesday. Shares of the company closed 1.92% higher at $285.66 a share.</li>\n <li>Sold 17,787 shares — estimated to be worth $21.59 million — in&nbsp;<b>Tesla Inc</b>. Including the latest sale Ark Invest has sold about $1.44 billion worth of shares in Tesla since the start of September. Shares closed 3.57% higher at $1,213.86 a share.</li>\n <li>Bought 722,344 shares — estimated to be worth $26.75 million — in&nbsp;<b>RobinhoodMarkets Inc</b>&nbsp;on the day shares closed 5.86% higher at $37.04 a share.</li>\n <li>Bought 193,482 shares — estimated to be worth $9 million — in&nbsp;<b>Draftkings Inc</b>. The stock closed 1.6% lower at $46.84 a share.</li>\n</ul>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"ARKF":"ARK Fintech Innovation ETF","TSLA":"特斯拉","ARKG":"ARK Genomic Revolution ETF","Z":"Zillow","ARKK":"ARK Innovation ETF","HOOD":"Robinhood","DKNG":"DraftKings Inc."},"is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1198107375","content_text":"Cathie Wood’s investment management firm Ark Invest on Wednesday significantly lowered its exposure in ZillowGroup Class C as the stock sank after the company reported a third-quarter loss and said it would be winding down its home buying business.\nThe popular money managing firm sold 3.9 million shares — estimated to be worth $256.9 million — in the online real estate marketplace company.\nZillow Class C shares closed 25% lower at $65.47 a share on Wednesday. The stock is down about 50% so far this year.\nThe company said it plans to wind down its home buying unit, Offers. Zillow said it would also cut 25% of its workforce.\nJust weeks after Zillow announced it would be pausing its iBuying of U.S. houses — Bloomberg reported this week that Zillow has actually sold 7,000 homes from its inventory.\nArk Invest deployed three of its active ETFs to sell the shares in Zillow. These are the Ark Innovation ETF, the Ark Next Generation Internet ETF and the Ark Fintech Innovation ETF.\nThe three ETFs held 10.59 million shares — estimated to be worth $924 million — in Zillow, ahead of Wednesday’s trade.  Ark Invest had piled up shares in Zillow ahead of the company’s third quarter results on Wednesday.\nHere are a few other key Ark Invest trades from Wednesday:\n\nBought 226,377 shares — estimated to be worth $64.7 million — in Zoom Video Communications Inc on Tuesday. Shares of the company closed 1.92% higher at $285.66 a share.\nSold 17,787 shares — estimated to be worth $21.59 million — in Tesla Inc. Including the latest sale Ark Invest has sold about $1.44 billion worth of shares in Tesla since the start of September. Shares closed 3.57% higher at $1,213.86 a share.\nBought 722,344 shares — estimated to be worth $26.75 million — in RobinhoodMarkets Inc on the day shares closed 5.86% higher at $37.04 a share.\nBought 193,482 shares — estimated to be worth $9 million — in Draftkings Inc. The stock closed 1.6% lower at $46.84 a share.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":444,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":866589603,"gmtCreate":1632790708102,"gmtModify":1632797582728,"author":{"id":"3582685915272084","authorId":"3582685915272084","name":"Cicaf","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/89d23feb4d833b076b3c82458b3d41f0","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Like please","listText":"Like please","text":"Like please","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/866589603","repostId":"1145220085","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1145220085","pubTimestamp":1632789238,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1145220085?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-09-28 08:33","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Why 4430 Is A Crucial Line In The Sand For The S&P 500 This Week","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1145220085","media":"zerohedge","summary":"After a strong overnight session, S&P has slumped since the European open, back in the red and hover","content":"<p>After a strong overnight session, S&amp;P has slumped since the European open, back in the red and hovering at a critical technical level for the week...</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a1257735c0ebba1138e253c2e1b81e95\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"699\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><i>As SpotGamma details</i>,<b>a big point of conversation this week will be the quarterly JPM collar roll, which currently holds short calls at 4430</b>(morehere). These calls expire and are likely rolled on 9/30 (Thursday) – an expiration which currently holds &gt;20% of total SPX gamma. The size of this expiration likely invokes some volatility (i.e. gamma “unclenching”) in/around Thursday.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f25e1e9c1aa0748404978ab3092135ee\" tg-width=\"1079\" tg-height=\"536\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">As you can see above the gamma tied to this 4430 strike is still less than that of 4400/4450, and we think this overall position provides decent support on any drawdown.</p>\n<p>SpotGammanotes that the<b>4500 Call Wall remains our upside target</b>for this week.</p>\n<p>For the downside it would take a pretty decent punch to break 4400.<b>If 4400 is breached we think volatility expands drastically due to negative gamma.</b>We anticipate 4400 being the critical support line into Thursdays expiration.</p>","source":"lsy1583725640930","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Why 4430 Is A Crucial Line In The Sand For The S&P 500 This Week</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; 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}\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWhy 4430 Is A Crucial Line In The Sand For The S&P 500 This Week\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-09-28 08:33 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/why-4430-crucial-line-sand-sp-500-week><strong>zerohedge</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>After a strong overnight session, S&P has slumped since the European open, back in the red and hovering at a critical technical level for the week...\nAs SpotGamma details,a big point of conversation ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/why-4430-crucial-line-sand-sp-500-week\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","SPY":"标普500ETF"},"source_url":"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/why-4430-crucial-line-sand-sp-500-week","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1145220085","content_text":"After a strong overnight session, S&P has slumped since the European open, back in the red and hovering at a critical technical level for the week...\nAs SpotGamma details,a big point of conversation this week will be the quarterly JPM collar roll, which currently holds short calls at 4430(morehere). These calls expire and are likely rolled on 9/30 (Thursday) – an expiration which currently holds >20% of total SPX gamma. The size of this expiration likely invokes some volatility (i.e. gamma “unclenching”) in/around Thursday.\nAs you can see above the gamma tied to this 4430 strike is still less than that of 4400/4450, and we think this overall position provides decent support on any drawdown.\nSpotGammanotes that the4500 Call Wall remains our upside targetfor this week.\nFor the downside it would take a pretty decent punch to break 4400.If 4400 is breached we think volatility expands drastically due to negative gamma.We anticipate 4400 being the critical support line into Thursdays expiration.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":481,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":844655665,"gmtCreate":1636424516318,"gmtModify":1636424516710,"author":{"id":"3582685915272084","authorId":"3582685915272084","name":"Cicaf","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/89d23feb4d833b076b3c82458b3d41f0","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Like please","listText":"Like please","text":"Like please","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/844655665","repostId":"1115872742","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":358,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}