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gwp0123
2021-05-21
[微笑]
人均月薪7.6万!腾讯一季度大赚478亿暴增65%
gwp0123
2021-05-20
呵呵呵
抱歉,原内容已删除
gwp0123
2021-05-19
Wake up
摩根士丹利:醒醒吧,涨价和通胀只是市场的幻觉
gwp0123
2021-05-18
这篇文章不错,转发给大家看看
@carmenng:
$Coinbase Global, Inc.(COIN)$
i m bankrupt
gwp0123
2021-05-18
涨价?
抱歉,原内容已删除
gwp0123
2021-05-15
扎堆发行,要干嘛?
首批恒生科技ETF扎堆发行,机会在哪里?
gwp0123
2021-05-15
OK OK
抱歉,原内容已删除
gwp0123
2021-05-14
该好好整顿
抱歉,原内容已删除
gwp0123
2021-05-13
$ARK Space Exploration & Innovation ETF(ARKX)$
wowoooo! Slow down, what’s happening? lol
gwp0123
2021-05-12
这操作!!!
抱歉,原内容已删除
gwp0123
2021-05-11
内爆是啥意思
抱歉,原内容已删除
gwp0123
2021-05-10
无所谓啦反正//
@tw0303
:特斯拉品质有待提高
抱歉,原内容已删除
gwp0123
2021-05-09
科技是永恒的主题
抱歉,原内容已删除
gwp0123
2021-05-09
$ARK Space Exploration & Innovation ETF(ARKX)$
Huston! Do you read?
gwp0123
2021-05-09
yeeeessss, that would be our Cathie!!!!
抱歉,原内容已删除
gwp0123
2021-05-07
边走边看,一键清仓[流泪]
抱歉,原内容已删除
gwp0123
2021-05-07
论取名的重要性
蔚来、小鹏出海第一站,为何选择了挪威?
gwp0123
2021-05-07
只是技术性调整
恒生科技指数跌超2%,舜宇光学科技跌超7%
gwp0123
2021-05-07
believed it or not, I am going in...
“牛市女皇”旗下基金重挫,为何会给市场带来麻烦?
gwp0123
2021-05-07
因为感情不好还是三观不合?
抱歉,原内容已删除
去老虎APP查看更多动态
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","listText":"[微笑] ","text":"[微笑]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/130558771","repostId":"2137792609","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2137792609","pubTimestamp":1621557941,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2137792609?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-05-21 08:45","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"人均月薪7.6万!腾讯一季度大赚478亿暴增65%","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2137792609","media":"券商中国","summary":"【人均月薪7.6万!腾讯一季度大赚478亿 暴增65%!游戏收入436亿】5月20日下午,腾讯发布一季报,截至2021年3月底,腾讯一季度实现营收1353.03亿元,同比增长25%;净利润为478亿元,同比增长65%;其中,包括腾讯云在内的“金融科技及企业服务”单季收入390亿元,同比增长47%。","content":"<p>腾讯用一份稳健增长的一季报,向股东们送出爱的告白!</p>\n<p>5月20日下午,腾讯发布一季报,截至2021年3月底,腾讯一季度实现营收1353.03亿元(人民币,未经特殊说明,下同),同比增长25%;净利润为478亿元,同比增长65%;其中,包括腾讯云在内的“金融科技及企业服务”单季收入390亿元,同比增长47%。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9dcd00746db3ed4705fe3a9d7129dadc\" tg-width=\"994\" tg-height=\"532\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>腾讯在季报中表示,一季度其企业服务及网络广告收入均有显著增长。同时,该公司也在加大在企业服务及软件、高工业化水平游戏及短视频等领域的投资。腾讯认为,尽管部分投资公司因为投入于社区团购业务等新项目,带来更大的联营公司亏损,但相信中国互联网行业处于大规模投资的阶段。</p>\n<p><b>一季度营收1353.03亿元,员工平均月薪7.6万</b></p>\n<p>财报显示,腾讯一季度共实现营收1353.03亿元,同比增长25%;净利润为478亿元,同比增长65%。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9091f71244726532c52fb97191ab98f6\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"752\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>同时,报告期内微信及及WeChat合并月活跃账户数为12.41亿,同比增3.3%;QQ移动终端月活跃账户数为6.06亿,同比降12.6%。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f5004332b9e99c487a28f030021e3462\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"528\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>值得注意的是,腾讯在财报中还透露了员工数和酬金数据。财报显示,腾讯前三个月总酬金成本超204.01亿元,共89228名雇员,以此计算,腾讯平均每名员工每月薪酬7.6万元,而按12个月年薪超90万。</p>\n<p><b>腾讯将营收主要划分为三大板块:</b></p>\n<p>增值服务目前仍是腾讯收入结构中的大头,一季度收入为724亿元,同比增长16%,环比增长8%,占收入比例约为54%。其中,游戏收入增长17%至436亿元,主要是受全球手机游戏收入增长推动;而社交网络收入增长15%至288亿元,系数字内容订购以及游戏虚拟道具销售稳健增长所致。</p>\n<p>网络广告业务方面,今年一季度收入同比增长23%至218亿元,反映电子商务平台、教育及快速消费品等品类的需求增长以及合并<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BITA\">易车</a>的广告收入贡献。其中,社交及其他广告收入增长27%至185亿元,主要是因为响应广告主对微信朋友圈广告,以及移动广告联盟需求增长而提供更多广告库存;媒体广告收入增长7%至33亿元,则主要是由于音乐流媒体应用的广告收入增长。</p>\n<p>金融科技及企业服务业务则是腾讯一季度收入增速最大的板块,同比增长47%至390亿元。腾讯称,金融科技服务收入增长部分,反映了一季度居家令影响以及移动支付使用的长期趋势。而企业服务收入同比增速较上季度提升,主要由于项目部署恢复、企业软件及在线视频客户的需求增长,以及受去年四季度合并易车的企业服务收入所推动。</p>\n<p><b>新一轮战略架构升级后首份财报</b></p>\n<p>在刚刚过去的4月,腾讯进行了第四次战略升级,将“可持续社会价值创新”纳入公司核心战略,再加上2018年“930变革”确立的“消费互联网”和“产业互联网”双引擎,腾讯自此拥有了“三驾马车”,未来牵引所有核心业务。</p>\n<p>腾讯董事会主席兼首席执行官马化腾表示,“作为服务广大用户及企业客户的科技公司,我们认识到我们的社会责任及通过创新缔造重大社会价值的机会。近期的战略升级以及可持续社会价值事业部的设立,将会使我们对社会产生更多正面的影响,并且引领腾讯踏进新的发展阶段。”</p>\n<p>有分析观点指出,此次战略升级和组织架构变革,意味着腾讯未来不仅要在业务基本盘中融入社会价值考量,更要实现商业价值和社会价值的共振。从消费互联网到产业互联网,科技和互联网已经完全融入到生活的方方面面,这也要求科技和互联网公司在推动社会发展、承担社会责任等方面发挥越来越大的作用。</p>\n<p>回顾历史,自2018年“930变革”至今,腾讯全面拥抱产业互联网,借助在云、安全、人工智能、位置服务等领域的深厚能力和开放生态,在多个行业取得了显著成绩,并在政务、金融等重要赛道打造了一系列标杆应用,深入到实体产业的各行各业。</p>\n<p>例如在政务领域,腾讯云数字政务已为10亿民众提供超过2000项移动政务服务,为1700万企业提供超过100万项涉企服务;在金融行业,腾讯服务了包括数百家银行,数十家券商、保险公司以及超过90%的持牌消费金融公司和数量众多的泛金融企业;在教育领域,腾讯教育服务全国1000多个省市区县的教育主管部门,服务用户数超4亿……</p>\n<p>4月22日,中国信通院发布的《数字化就业新职业新岗位报告》则显示,由公众号、小程序、视频号、微信支付、企业微信等共同构成的微信生态,在2020年衍生就业机会3684万个,同比增长24.4%。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8ae2bab745b009ae7ee40b873f6e3f63\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"764\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>云与智慧产业事业群作为腾讯产业互联网战略的对外出口,也持续更新迭代。腾讯公司高级执行副总裁、云与智慧产业事业群CEO汤道生表示:“未来,我们将不断优化产品和服务、大力引进人才,形成有腾讯特色的To B发展路线,为全社会的数字化进程提供助力。”</p>\n<p><b>仍将继续加大新机会投资</b></p>\n<p>“我们认为,全球数字化转型目前仍然处于初期阶段。科技进步将为我们的消费互联网及产业互联网活动带来大量机会。”基于这一判断,腾讯称将主动加大投入,把2021年的部分利润增量投资于新的机会——主要覆盖企业服务、游戏及短视频内容领域——并相信此举长远而言可带来丰厚回报。</p>\n<p>在企业服务方面,腾讯表示,将进一步投资在人才及基础设施等领域,支持业务的迅速发展;加强效率办公SaaS产品及安全软件,以及与SaaS供应商及独立软件供应商的合作伙伴关系和对它们的投资,以支持客户的数字化需求;以及通过提升在医疗保健、零售、教育及交通等关键垂直领域的向上销售及交叉销售能力,为企业提供智慧解决方案及为用户提供消费性产品。</p>\n<p>在游戏版图上,腾讯也透露正在增加对游戏开发的投资,尤其专注于能够吸引全球用户的大型及高工业化水平游戏。同时,腾讯也在进一步投资于能服务更多不同目标受众的新游戏类型,建立其IP和跨媒体联动,以及投资于先进技术以提供下一代游戏体验,例如云游戏。</p>\n<p>值得注意的是,在近日举办的腾讯游戏年度发布会上,腾讯一口气发布60+游戏产品,从游戏品类来看,除了《重生边缘》《英雄联盟手游》《重返帝国》等竞技策略类游戏外,腾讯在沙盒游戏、二次元、女性向游戏上相继落位,在细分赛道上快马加鞭,每个赛道上都已经有不止一款产品曝光,比如《航海王手游》、《璀璨星途》、《延禧攻略之凤凰于飞》等。</p>\n<p>正如此前大力推动视频号上线,腾讯也在短视频内容有着更多的期待。“我们正在培育视频号的内容生态,连接用户与现实生活内容,并让优质内容创作者能够触达消费者。”腾讯表示,会为内容创作者提供制作及商业化工具,优化以社交为导向的推荐算法,丰富知识型内容,以及增加服务器及频宽,藉此支持视频号的稳健发展。</p>\n<p>此外,腾讯也在加强长短视频服务之间的协同效应,通过腾讯视频与微视的合并,利用本身在短视频方面的能力,进一步助力长视频业务的发展。并计划提升自制内容的生产能力,以进一步扩充IP内容库,提供可让创作者改编的视频素材。</p>\n<p>在宣布新一轮战略升级的同时,腾讯也表示首期将投入500亿元,用于包括基础科学、教育创新、乡村振兴、碳中和等领域的实践,以实验室和内部创业模式探索可持续发展。腾讯高管此前对此表示,单纯靠传统意义上的捐赠,可持续事业很难在企业中做大,只有结合企业核心技术、用商业能力创新公益方法,才能实现可持续发展。</p>","source":"eastmoney_highlight","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE 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}\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n人均月薪7.6万!腾讯一季度大赚478亿暴增65%\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-05-21 08:45 北京时间 <a href=http://finance.eastmoney.com/a/202105211930129488_0.html><strong>券商中国</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>腾讯用一份稳健增长的一季报,向股东们送出爱的告白!\n5月20日下午,腾讯发布一季报,截至2021年3月底,腾讯一季度实现营收1353.03亿元(人民币,未经特殊说明,下同),同比增长25%;净利润为478亿元,同比增长65%;其中,包括腾讯云在内的“金融科技及企业服务”单季收入390亿元,同比增长47%。\n\n腾讯在季报中表示,一季度其企业服务及网络广告收入均有显著增长。同时,该公司也在加大在...</p>\n\n<a href=\"http://finance.eastmoney.com/a/202105211930129488_0.html\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cffa4cb57ff205ad9ac6923ef2ff385b","relate_stocks":{"00700":"腾讯控股","QNETCN":"纳斯达克中美互联网老虎指数","TCEHY":"腾讯控股ADR"},"source_url":"http://finance.eastmoney.com/a/202105211930129488_0.html","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2137792609","content_text":"腾讯用一份稳健增长的一季报,向股东们送出爱的告白!\n5月20日下午,腾讯发布一季报,截至2021年3月底,腾讯一季度实现营收1353.03亿元(人民币,未经特殊说明,下同),同比增长25%;净利润为478亿元,同比增长65%;其中,包括腾讯云在内的“金融科技及企业服务”单季收入390亿元,同比增长47%。\n\n腾讯在季报中表示,一季度其企业服务及网络广告收入均有显著增长。同时,该公司也在加大在企业服务及软件、高工业化水平游戏及短视频等领域的投资。腾讯认为,尽管部分投资公司因为投入于社区团购业务等新项目,带来更大的联营公司亏损,但相信中国互联网行业处于大规模投资的阶段。\n一季度营收1353.03亿元,员工平均月薪7.6万\n财报显示,腾讯一季度共实现营收1353.03亿元,同比增长25%;净利润为478亿元,同比增长65%。\n\n同时,报告期内微信及及WeChat合并月活跃账户数为12.41亿,同比增3.3%;QQ移动终端月活跃账户数为6.06亿,同比降12.6%。\n\n值得注意的是,腾讯在财报中还透露了员工数和酬金数据。财报显示,腾讯前三个月总酬金成本超204.01亿元,共89228名雇员,以此计算,腾讯平均每名员工每月薪酬7.6万元,而按12个月年薪超90万。\n腾讯将营收主要划分为三大板块:\n增值服务目前仍是腾讯收入结构中的大头,一季度收入为724亿元,同比增长16%,环比增长8%,占收入比例约为54%。其中,游戏收入增长17%至436亿元,主要是受全球手机游戏收入增长推动;而社交网络收入增长15%至288亿元,系数字内容订购以及游戏虚拟道具销售稳健增长所致。\n网络广告业务方面,今年一季度收入同比增长23%至218亿元,反映电子商务平台、教育及快速消费品等品类的需求增长以及合并易车的广告收入贡献。其中,社交及其他广告收入增长27%至185亿元,主要是因为响应广告主对微信朋友圈广告,以及移动广告联盟需求增长而提供更多广告库存;媒体广告收入增长7%至33亿元,则主要是由于音乐流媒体应用的广告收入增长。\n金融科技及企业服务业务则是腾讯一季度收入增速最大的板块,同比增长47%至390亿元。腾讯称,金融科技服务收入增长部分,反映了一季度居家令影响以及移动支付使用的长期趋势。而企业服务收入同比增速较上季度提升,主要由于项目部署恢复、企业软件及在线视频客户的需求增长,以及受去年四季度合并易车的企业服务收入所推动。\n新一轮战略架构升级后首份财报\n在刚刚过去的4月,腾讯进行了第四次战略升级,将“可持续社会价值创新”纳入公司核心战略,再加上2018年“930变革”确立的“消费互联网”和“产业互联网”双引擎,腾讯自此拥有了“三驾马车”,未来牵引所有核心业务。\n腾讯董事会主席兼首席执行官马化腾表示,“作为服务广大用户及企业客户的科技公司,我们认识到我们的社会责任及通过创新缔造重大社会价值的机会。近期的战略升级以及可持续社会价值事业部的设立,将会使我们对社会产生更多正面的影响,并且引领腾讯踏进新的发展阶段。”\n有分析观点指出,此次战略升级和组织架构变革,意味着腾讯未来不仅要在业务基本盘中融入社会价值考量,更要实现商业价值和社会价值的共振。从消费互联网到产业互联网,科技和互联网已经完全融入到生活的方方面面,这也要求科技和互联网公司在推动社会发展、承担社会责任等方面发挥越来越大的作用。\n回顾历史,自2018年“930变革”至今,腾讯全面拥抱产业互联网,借助在云、安全、人工智能、位置服务等领域的深厚能力和开放生态,在多个行业取得了显著成绩,并在政务、金融等重要赛道打造了一系列标杆应用,深入到实体产业的各行各业。\n例如在政务领域,腾讯云数字政务已为10亿民众提供超过2000项移动政务服务,为1700万企业提供超过100万项涉企服务;在金融行业,腾讯服务了包括数百家银行,数十家券商、保险公司以及超过90%的持牌消费金融公司和数量众多的泛金融企业;在教育领域,腾讯教育服务全国1000多个省市区县的教育主管部门,服务用户数超4亿……\n4月22日,中国信通院发布的《数字化就业新职业新岗位报告》则显示,由公众号、小程序、视频号、微信支付、企业微信等共同构成的微信生态,在2020年衍生就业机会3684万个,同比增长24.4%。\n\n云与智慧产业事业群作为腾讯产业互联网战略的对外出口,也持续更新迭代。腾讯公司高级执行副总裁、云与智慧产业事业群CEO汤道生表示:“未来,我们将不断优化产品和服务、大力引进人才,形成有腾讯特色的To B发展路线,为全社会的数字化进程提供助力。”\n仍将继续加大新机会投资\n“我们认为,全球数字化转型目前仍然处于初期阶段。科技进步将为我们的消费互联网及产业互联网活动带来大量机会。”基于这一判断,腾讯称将主动加大投入,把2021年的部分利润增量投资于新的机会——主要覆盖企业服务、游戏及短视频内容领域——并相信此举长远而言可带来丰厚回报。\n在企业服务方面,腾讯表示,将进一步投资在人才及基础设施等领域,支持业务的迅速发展;加强效率办公SaaS产品及安全软件,以及与SaaS供应商及独立软件供应商的合作伙伴关系和对它们的投资,以支持客户的数字化需求;以及通过提升在医疗保健、零售、教育及交通等关键垂直领域的向上销售及交叉销售能力,为企业提供智慧解决方案及为用户提供消费性产品。\n在游戏版图上,腾讯也透露正在增加对游戏开发的投资,尤其专注于能够吸引全球用户的大型及高工业化水平游戏。同时,腾讯也在进一步投资于能服务更多不同目标受众的新游戏类型,建立其IP和跨媒体联动,以及投资于先进技术以提供下一代游戏体验,例如云游戏。\n值得注意的是,在近日举办的腾讯游戏年度发布会上,腾讯一口气发布60+游戏产品,从游戏品类来看,除了《重生边缘》《英雄联盟手游》《重返帝国》等竞技策略类游戏外,腾讯在沙盒游戏、二次元、女性向游戏上相继落位,在细分赛道上快马加鞭,每个赛道上都已经有不止一款产品曝光,比如《航海王手游》、《璀璨星途》、《延禧攻略之凤凰于飞》等。\n正如此前大力推动视频号上线,腾讯也在短视频内容有着更多的期待。“我们正在培育视频号的内容生态,连接用户与现实生活内容,并让优质内容创作者能够触达消费者。”腾讯表示,会为内容创作者提供制作及商业化工具,优化以社交为导向的推荐算法,丰富知识型内容,以及增加服务器及频宽,藉此支持视频号的稳健发展。\n此外,腾讯也在加强长短视频服务之间的协同效应,通过腾讯视频与微视的合并,利用本身在短视频方面的能力,进一步助力长视频业务的发展。并计划提升自制内容的生产能力,以进一步扩充IP内容库,提供可让创作者改编的视频素材。\n在宣布新一轮战略升级的同时,腾讯也表示首期将投入500亿元,用于包括基础科学、教育创新、乡村振兴、碳中和等领域的实践,以实验室和内部创业模式探索可持续发展。腾讯高管此前对此表示,单纯靠传统意义上的捐赠,可持续事业很难在企业中做大,只有结合企业核心技术、用商业能力创新公益方法,才能实现可持续发展。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1153,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":197481120,"gmtCreate":1621478832560,"gmtModify":1634188810276,"author":{"id":"3582619021047705","authorId":"3582619021047705","name":"gwp0123","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8af1bb83b5cc677b31517836f77e1dc0","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3582619021047705","idStr":"3582619021047705"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"呵呵呵","listText":"呵呵呵","text":"呵呵呵","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/197481120","repostId":"2136941295","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":959,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":197922103,"gmtCreate":1621421720802,"gmtModify":1634189296256,"author":{"id":"3582619021047705","authorId":"3582619021047705","name":"gwp0123","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8af1bb83b5cc677b31517836f77e1dc0","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3582619021047705","idStr":"3582619021047705"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Wake up ","listText":"Wake up ","text":"Wake up","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/197922103","repostId":"1121400739","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1121400739","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"追踪全球财经热点,精选影响您财富的资讯,投资理财必备神器!","home_visible":1,"media_name":"华尔街见闻","id":"1084101182","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/66809d1f5c2e43e2bdf15820c6d6897e"},"pubTimestamp":1621418404,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1121400739?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-05-19 18:00","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"摩根士丹利:醒醒吧,涨价和通胀只是市场的幻觉","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1121400739","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"别以为通胀会一直明显高于市场预期,摩根士丹利预计CPI可能还会放缓。美联储也不会急于收紧政策以控制通胀,尤其是就业和零售数据还差强人意的时候。让“子弹再飞一会儿”。\n\n“美国木材猛涨,价格狂涨两倍”“","content":"<blockquote>\n 别以为通胀会一直明显高于市场预期,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MS\">摩根士丹利</a>预计CPI可能还会放缓。美联储也不会急于收紧政策以控制通胀,尤其是就业和零售数据还差强人意的时候。让“子弹再飞一会儿”。\n</blockquote>\n<p>“美国木材猛涨,价格狂涨两倍”“美国是否会重演1970式大通胀?”……近期,美国正走向高通胀的消息铺天盖地,市场也基于这种预期反复炒作周期性板块。</p>\n<p>美联储已明确表示,相比于通胀数据,他们更关注通胀预期。当前,市场对于美国未来一年的通胀率预期与过去的CPI高点保持一致。如果CPI将来保持在目前的较高水平,那么再往前一年时间的通胀预期也仍将保持在差不多的水准上。</p>\n<p>然而,摩根士丹利却持相反的观点。他们预计,随着时间向着年底推移,美国CPI同比增速将会呈现放缓态势,或许会从4月份的4.2%放缓至3.2%,明年可能进一步放慢到2.5%。预计通胀预期也会随之缩减。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4280e1ea0c4e026496c0f947ba6471a2\" tg-width=\"1226\" tg-height=\"612\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>基于这种通胀预期,摩根士丹利认为,很多市场人士预计中的美联储可能很快收紧政策的想法不会成为现实,美联储通常不会一看到通胀数据飙高就赶紧收回政策压制通胀,而是需要时间来确信实际通胀数据确实稳稳地站在2%目标水位上方,</p>\n<p>而且,非农就业等其他经济指标也要配合,不能仅仅凭借通胀指标就来决定要不要调整货币政策。</p>\n<p>投资者也需要有耐心。摩根士丹利认为,关于高通胀、以及美联储是否释放政策调整信号,等到秋天可能就会出现明确的答案了。</p>\n<p><b>高通胀会带来强美元?</b></p>\n<p>眼看着通胀数据一个比一个高出市场预期,市场第一时间的反应之一就是美元走强。尽管拉涨的势头并不持久,但这至少说明了市场当时在担心美联储可能很快以收紧政策来应对高通胀。</p>\n<p>那么,高通胀带来的结果之一真的是强美元吗?摩根士丹利的答案又一次与很多市场人士不同:并不必然。</p>\n<p>这家银行的分析师们认为,美联储至少在短期内将维持按兵不动,继续对外释放偏鸽派立场,尤其是在就业市场和零售数据还时不时让人失望的时候。这将给美元带来下行压力。</p>\n<p>不过摩根士丹利还表示,一旦美联储今年秋天开始释放出缩减QE的信息,那么通胀预期会减淡,美元的画风也会随之改变,汇率将在年底前走高。</p>\n<p>分析师们表示,从长期角度看,如果一个国家相对于其国际贸易伙伴国呈现出持续的高通胀,则将侵蚀本币的名义价值。即使在一年的时间框架内,通胀差异与汇率走势之间似乎也存在着合理的相关性。</p>\n<p>就过去多年的历史表现而言,每当美国通胀明显高于其他国家时,美元指数的上涨幅度往往没有通胀数据那么大。下图大体上能够呈现出二者的一些相关性。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d89ba861b62869a841bc6275b48ba1d9\" tg-width=\"1277\" tg-height=\"548\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p><b>别只看通胀数据,美联储的淡定是老传统了</b></p>\n<p>摩根士丹利还提到了另外一个历史规律:</p>\n<blockquote>\n 在一个央行拥有公信力的经济体中,通胀走高可能导致市场产生货币紧缩的预期,从而导致本币汇率走强;而在一个央行公信力没那么高的经济体中,通胀走高可能导致人们担心央行会允许其继续走高,从而导致货币汇率疲软。\n</blockquote>\n<p>偏偏美联储的情况比较特别:这么多年来,美联储往往都走在通胀曲线的后面,官员们经常让通胀的“子弹再飞一会儿”。直到现在,他们也还认为,名义通胀率得在2%的目标水平上保持的足够久,才会考虑收紧政策。</p>\n<p>基于这种规律,摩根士丹利认为,当美国通胀率高于市场预期,应当可以想象到美元的反应是走弱,而非走强,因为市场应该能预计到美联储的鸽派立场大概率不会短期内就改变。</p>\n<p>那如何解释最新的美国通胀指标高于预期之后,美元指数当时走高了呢?摩根士丹利解释说,这极有可能是因为投资者们倾向于认为,美联储将需要很快接受不同于以往的策略,去收紧政策,因为目前通胀实在是太高了。</p>\n<p>如果这种解释确实是事实,投资者真是这么想的,摩根士丹利对于这种市场观点持反驳立场。他们认为,美联储大概率维持当前的观点,理由就是劳动力市场还不是特别好,零售销售数据和消费者信心也没有预期的那么强劲。</p>\n<p>换句话说,通胀数据并非美联储唯一考虑的因素。</p>\n<p>“有基于此,美元可能还会进一步走低。”摩根士丹利在研报中写道。</p>\n<p><b>到秋天,美联储可能才会行动起来</b></p>\n<p>摩根士丹利建议投资者耐心地等待秋季的到来。</p>\n<blockquote>\n 到那时,美国经济复苏应当会取得更多进展,理论上会有更多数据显示出通胀压力确实具有持续性,到底会不会削减QE这个疑问也会慢慢清晰起来,那才会推高美元。\n <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/87b9cef6917b49eee6479d1e25288e72\" tg-width=\"622\" tg-height=\"591\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">\n</blockquote>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>摩根士丹利:醒醒吧,涨价和通胀只是市场的幻觉</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; 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8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n摩根士丹利:醒醒吧,涨价和通胀只是市场的幻觉\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n2021-05-19 18:00 北京时间 <strong>华尔街见闻</strong>\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>别以为通胀会一直明显高于市场预期,摩根士丹利预计CPI可能还会放缓。美联储也不会急于收紧政策以控制通胀,尤其是就业和零售数据还差强人意的时候。让“子弹再飞一会儿”。\n\n“美国木材猛涨,价格狂涨两倍”“美国是否会重演1970式大通胀?”……近期,美国正走向高通胀的消息铺天盖地,市场也基于这种预期反复炒作周期性板块。\n美联储已明确表示,相比于通胀数据,他们更关注通胀预期。当前,市场对于美国未来一年的...</p>\n\n<a href=\"None\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c318bcd91a109139b7d70c76c30bb154","relate_stocks":{"MS":"摩根士丹利"},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1121400739","content_text":"别以为通胀会一直明显高于市场预期,摩根士丹利预计CPI可能还会放缓。美联储也不会急于收紧政策以控制通胀,尤其是就业和零售数据还差强人意的时候。让“子弹再飞一会儿”。\n\n“美国木材猛涨,价格狂涨两倍”“美国是否会重演1970式大通胀?”……近期,美国正走向高通胀的消息铺天盖地,市场也基于这种预期反复炒作周期性板块。\n美联储已明确表示,相比于通胀数据,他们更关注通胀预期。当前,市场对于美国未来一年的通胀率预期与过去的CPI高点保持一致。如果CPI将来保持在目前的较高水平,那么再往前一年时间的通胀预期也仍将保持在差不多的水准上。\n然而,摩根士丹利却持相反的观点。他们预计,随着时间向着年底推移,美国CPI同比增速将会呈现放缓态势,或许会从4月份的4.2%放缓至3.2%,明年可能进一步放慢到2.5%。预计通胀预期也会随之缩减。\n\n基于这种通胀预期,摩根士丹利认为,很多市场人士预计中的美联储可能很快收紧政策的想法不会成为现实,美联储通常不会一看到通胀数据飙高就赶紧收回政策压制通胀,而是需要时间来确信实际通胀数据确实稳稳地站在2%目标水位上方,\n而且,非农就业等其他经济指标也要配合,不能仅仅凭借通胀指标就来决定要不要调整货币政策。\n投资者也需要有耐心。摩根士丹利认为,关于高通胀、以及美联储是否释放政策调整信号,等到秋天可能就会出现明确的答案了。\n高通胀会带来强美元?\n眼看着通胀数据一个比一个高出市场预期,市场第一时间的反应之一就是美元走强。尽管拉涨的势头并不持久,但这至少说明了市场当时在担心美联储可能很快以收紧政策来应对高通胀。\n那么,高通胀带来的结果之一真的是强美元吗?摩根士丹利的答案又一次与很多市场人士不同:并不必然。\n这家银行的分析师们认为,美联储至少在短期内将维持按兵不动,继续对外释放偏鸽派立场,尤其是在就业市场和零售数据还时不时让人失望的时候。这将给美元带来下行压力。\n不过摩根士丹利还表示,一旦美联储今年秋天开始释放出缩减QE的信息,那么通胀预期会减淡,美元的画风也会随之改变,汇率将在年底前走高。\n分析师们表示,从长期角度看,如果一个国家相对于其国际贸易伙伴国呈现出持续的高通胀,则将侵蚀本币的名义价值。即使在一年的时间框架内,通胀差异与汇率走势之间似乎也存在着合理的相关性。\n就过去多年的历史表现而言,每当美国通胀明显高于其他国家时,美元指数的上涨幅度往往没有通胀数据那么大。下图大体上能够呈现出二者的一些相关性。\n\n别只看通胀数据,美联储的淡定是老传统了\n摩根士丹利还提到了另外一个历史规律:\n\n 在一个央行拥有公信力的经济体中,通胀走高可能导致市场产生货币紧缩的预期,从而导致本币汇率走强;而在一个央行公信力没那么高的经济体中,通胀走高可能导致人们担心央行会允许其继续走高,从而导致货币汇率疲软。\n\n偏偏美联储的情况比较特别:这么多年来,美联储往往都走在通胀曲线的后面,官员们经常让通胀的“子弹再飞一会儿”。直到现在,他们也还认为,名义通胀率得在2%的目标水平上保持的足够久,才会考虑收紧政策。\n基于这种规律,摩根士丹利认为,当美国通胀率高于市场预期,应当可以想象到美元的反应是走弱,而非走强,因为市场应该能预计到美联储的鸽派立场大概率不会短期内就改变。\n那如何解释最新的美国通胀指标高于预期之后,美元指数当时走高了呢?摩根士丹利解释说,这极有可能是因为投资者们倾向于认为,美联储将需要很快接受不同于以往的策略,去收紧政策,因为目前通胀实在是太高了。\n如果这种解释确实是事实,投资者真是这么想的,摩根士丹利对于这种市场观点持反驳立场。他们认为,美联储大概率维持当前的观点,理由就是劳动力市场还不是特别好,零售销售数据和消费者信心也没有预期的那么强劲。\n换句话说,通胀数据并非美联储唯一考虑的因素。\n“有基于此,美元可能还会进一步走低。”摩根士丹利在研报中写道。\n到秋天,美联储可能才会行动起来\n摩根士丹利建议投资者耐心地等待秋季的到来。\n\n 到那时,美国经济复苏应当会取得更多进展,理论上会有更多数据显示出通胀压力确实具有持续性,到底会不会削减QE这个疑问也会慢慢清晰起来,那才会推高美元。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":856,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":195717489,"gmtCreate":1621315567241,"gmtModify":1634192495657,"author":{"id":"3582619021047705","authorId":"3582619021047705","name":"gwp0123","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8af1bb83b5cc677b31517836f77e1dc0","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3582619021047705","idStr":"3582619021047705"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"这篇文章不错,转发给大家看看","listText":"这篇文章不错,转发给大家看看","text":"这篇文章不错,转发给大家看看","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/195717489","repostId":"192329953","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":192329953,"gmtCreate":1621148744872,"gmtModify":1634193720557,"author":{"id":"3579413426750982","authorId":"3579413426750982","name":"carmenng","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b80cc1d0cc65b4923a58dcf0d330f19c","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3579413426750982","idStr":"3579413426750982"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/COIN\">$Coinbase Global, Inc.(COIN)$</a>i m bankrupt ","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/COIN\">$Coinbase Global, Inc.(COIN)$</a>i m bankrupt ","text":"$Coinbase Global, Inc.(COIN)$i m 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12:24","market":"sh","language":"zh","title":"首批恒生科技ETF扎堆发行,机会在哪里?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2135831179","media":"经济观察报","summary":"经济观察报 记者 李沁 在当前这个公募市场发行偏冷的节点上,一场以恒生科技指数ETF为主题的战争正在打响。近日,首批拿到恒生科技ETF产品发行批文的基金公司,争先抢发产品。其中,大成基金于5月11日进行了首发,博时基金、华夏基金、华安基金、易方达基金于12日发售,嘉实基金则于14日进行公开发售。恒生科技指数一经推出,就被投资界认为是香港市场中仅次于恒生指数和恒生国企指数的第三大旗舰指数。","content":"<div>\n<p>在当前这个公募市场发行偏冷的节点上,一场以恒生科技指数ETF为主题的战争正在打响。近日,首批拿到恒生科技ETF产品发行批文的基金公司,争先抢发产品。其中,大成基金于5月11日进行了首发,博时基金、华夏基金、华安基金、易方达基金于12日发售,嘉实基金则于14日进行公开发售。这些新基金的投资方向——港股科技板块,正格外地吸引着投资者的目光。恒生科技指数一经推出,就被投资界认为是香港市场中仅次于恒生指数...</p>\n\n<a href=\"None\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" 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}\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n首批恒生科技ETF扎堆发行,机会在哪里?\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n2021-05-15 12:24 北京时间 <strong>经济观察报</strong>\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>在当前这个公募市场发行偏冷的节点上,一场以恒生科技指数ETF为主题的战争正在打响。近日,首批拿到恒生科技ETF产品发行批文的基金公司,争先抢发产品。其中,大成基金于5月11日进行了首发,博时基金、华夏基金、华安基金、易方达基金于12日发售,嘉实基金则于14日进行公开发售。这些新基金的投资方向——港股科技板块,正格外地吸引着投资者的目光。恒生科技指数一经推出,就被投资界认为是香港市场中仅次于恒生指数...</p>\n\n<a href=\"None\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"http://upload.eeo.com.cn/2021/0515/1621046476517.jpg","relate_stocks":{},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2135831179","content_text":"在当前这个公募市场发行偏冷的节点上,一场以恒生科技指数ETF为主题的战争正在打响。近日,首批拿到恒生科技ETF产品发行批文的基金公司,争先抢发产品。其中,大成基金于5月11日进行了首发,博时基金、华夏基金、华安基金、易方达基金于12日发售,嘉实基金则于14日进行公开发售。这些新基金的投资方向——港股科技板块,正格外地吸引着投资者的目光。恒生科技指数一经推出,就被投资界认为是香港市场中仅次于恒生指数和恒生国企指数的第三大旗舰指数。业内人士认为,恒生科技指数的推出是为了满足市场对港股科技主题的投资需求及关注,其有效顺应了港股市场的结构变化和经济发展趋势。而恒生科技ETF产品的顺利落地益处颇多,不仅有助于投资者低成本持有港股科技板块龙头企业、分享中国科技发展、创新驱动和产业升级的红利,同时能够吸引更多的被动资金追踪和配置恒生科技指数,与中概股回归热潮一道继续改变港股生态等。当然,后来者汹涌。随着后续多家基金公司的加入,混战之势不可阻挡。有基金经理认为“赢者通吃”,一定会有某些产品脱颖而出占据大部分市场份额,而败者则很难有居上的机会。“第三大旗舰指数”恒生科技指数是从香港交易所主板上市的大中华公司股票中挑选30只与科技主题高度相关的公司,选取样本空间内分类为工业、非必须性消费品、医疗保健业、金融业和资讯科技业,且主题与科技高度相关,创新能力满足一定要求的上市公司。在博时基金经理万琼看来,恒生科技指数主要选择互联网、金融科技、电子商务、数码等行业,其最大的板块是互联网板块。互联网板块涵盖范围较广,包括互联网医疗、互联网教育、云计算、直播等当前最热的赛道,也包括搜索、电商和游戏等发展相对比较成熟的领域。第二块主要是硬件板块,这其中不仅包含目前我国奋起直追的芯片板块,也包括中国企业建立起一定优势的电子、通信产业链以及智能家居板块。为何恒生科技ETF会成为市场焦点?2021年来,汽车之家、百度、B站相继在香港进行二次上市,此前,阿里巴巴、快手、美团、京东、小米和网易6家科技互联网公司的上市融资超百亿港元,在2018年以来上市的十余家新公司中融资额占比超50%。此外,2020年南下资金呈现爆发式增长,全年净流入人民币5967亿元,同比增长169%。2020年初至2020年12月28日港股通总净流入6532亿元港币,其中恒生科技指数公司净流入5,669亿元港币,占比超过85%,相比同年年初增加264%,成为南下资金的主要增配流入方向。2020年7月27日,恒生指数公司正式推出恒生科技指数。在大量科技公司赴港上市、恒生指数与恒生国企指数科技企业数量占比偏低的背景下,恒生科技指数能够满足市场对港股科技主题的投资需求及关注,有效顺应了港股市场的结构变化和经济发展趋势,被业内视作香港市场“第三大旗舰指数”。华夏基金认为,伴随阿里巴巴、网易、京东等中国互联网巨头回归,资金对港股市场保持积极乐观,而恒生科技指数恰逢其时推出,其作为不可多得的优质资产,是南下资金首选投资标的。同时,2019起部分电商和互联网行业公司迎来利润拐点,全球半导体销售迎来同步复苏的共振,指数成分股利润拐点到来提振投资者情绪,吸引资金南下。此外,以美团、京东、阿里巴巴为代表的电子商务平台,新东方在线、平安好医生、阿里健康、金山软件等为代表的在线教育、医疗、办公平台,以及以腾讯、心动公司、阅文集团等为代表的“宅经济”概念股受益疫情催化无接触经济蓬勃发展,自年初疫情蔓延以来备受投资者关注。华兴证券(香港)首席经济学家兼首席策略分析师庞溟表示,目前可能是趁低吸纳港股相关科技股票的时机。他表示,国内对大型科技企业和新经济板块的强监管仍在继续、不确定性仍未消除,为相关科技公司股价表现带来压力。而高基数效应、通胀压力、供应链扰动、大宗商品上涨等因素导致中国科技股的盈利增长正在放缓。这些不确定性会在短期内进一步压制估值上扬。此外,对债券收益率、未来通胀趋势、经济复苏形态与节奏以及人口红利、消费修复和居民收入增长等宏观因素的判断,使部分资金开始从成长股切换到价值股、周期股和旧经济板块,从新兴市场股票切换到发达市场股票,叠加某些基金大额持仓调整的传导作用,也对港股科技板块的情绪、估值和资金面带来调整压力。机遇与风险随着首批恒生科技ETF的落地,新一轮竞争的赛道已然开启。首发的六只基金打法不一,大成基金最先抢发,博时基金、华夏基金、华安基金、易方达基金紧随其后,嘉实基金则选择了“错峰”发行。其中,华夏基金与易方达基金均采取了“一日闪电发行”的打法。据悉,华夏基金的募集金额在14亿元左右,位于市场前列。一位业内人士表示,如果只有一家拿到批文,肯定会选择一个合适的时点,这次多家同时拿到批文,一般会选择抢先发行。此外,对于基金公司“一日闪电发行”的策略,庞溟认为,今年以来,公募新基金发行总规模不断扩大、港股关注度和配置比例明显提升、投资者认购热情较高、相关产品已提前开启预热宣传,在此背景下,基金公司选择一日发行,反映出对布局热门赛道、成功发行此类产品的信心。当然,竞争远不止于此。据悉,随后会有更多的基金公司加入该赛道,恒生科技ETF大战将愈演愈烈。对此,鹏华基金经理尤柏年认为,赢者通吃,在同质化竞争中一定会有某家公司或产品脱颖而出,占据大多市场份额,而没能跑赢的公司或产品则很难再做起来。对于该赛道的特点,庞溟认为,首先,恒生科技指数覆盖与科技主题高度相关的优质赛道领先标的,新经济占比较高。其次,出色的基本面、高速的增长潜力和重视研发带来的企业竞争力护城河,有助于成份股公司取得长期超额回报并因此享有更高的估值水平与溢价。再者,恒生科技指数成份股构成反映港股科技公司最新动态,设有快速纳入机制,可每季及时调整。最后,恒生科技指数成份股具有一定市场关注度、代表性和重要性,具有较好的成长性和长期投资价值。万琼认为,恒生科技ETF发行背后所反映的投资机会值得关注。首先是国产替代的机会。例如,在硬件领域,国内企业凭借持续的研发投入以更低的成本生产出不输海外同行质量的产品,在硬件终端以及产业链上对日本、台湾和欧美等企业的持续替代和超越。其次,科技领域的自主可控当前已经上升到事关国家安全的战略问题。这驱动了国内企业在软件、芯片、先进材料等许多产业上技术的快速进步,从而进一步带动了国内产业在这些领域的快速崛起。第三,则是科技进步与传统产业的结合,前几年大家谈的比较多的互联网+,我们欣喜地看到,这几年科技进步带动传统产业的升级转型逐渐开花结果,许多制造业公司在拥抱科技后,成功突破之前的发展瓶颈,实现了企业的转型升级。不过,庞溟也提醒,投资者需要注意以下几个方面的情况。首先,恒生科技指数成份股中权重较高的股票大多已被一系列指数产品覆盖和持仓,如果成份股数目暂时固定,则该指数中权重较低的股票,有可能在越来越多的科技独角兽和中概股领先公司陆续登陆港股市场的情况下,被调整出该指数成份股行列,变相影响资金追踪此类股票的意愿;另外一点是,恒生科技指数成份股占港股市场市值和港股市场交易额均超过35%,可以预计,未来恒生科技指数与恒生指数的关联度会越来越高,目前选择追踪恒生指数的资金较难通过多样化配置来分散风险,可能需要做出抉择。“推出追踪恒生科技指数的ETF产品,需要以市场存在一定深度和广度的相关衍生工具为前提,否则流动性和对冲性会受到一定的影响。”庞溟指出。他认为同样需要注意的是,恒生科技指数严格来说属于中长期主题型指数,追踪主题指数的被动基金相对较少,而且需要和现有的恒生互联网科技业指数、恒生综合行业指数(资讯科技业)、恒生港股通新经济指数、MSCI中国指数甚至纳斯达克综合指数、纳斯达克100指数等展开竞争。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1027,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":196885697,"gmtCreate":1621042398619,"gmtModify":1634194376388,"author":{"id":"3582619021047705","authorId":"3582619021047705","name":"gwp0123","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8af1bb83b5cc677b31517836f77e1dc0","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3582619021047705","idStr":"3582619021047705"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"OK 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5月7日消息,特斯拉的中国竞争对手蔚来正在进军挪威市场,计划在9月份向这个北欧国家出口其智能电动汽车。该公司计划今年销售ES8电动SUV,明年销售续航可达1000公里的ET7豪华电动汽车。在此之前,电动汽车初创公司小鹏已经在去年12月下旬向挪威个人客户交付了100多辆G3智能SUV。\n挪威正迅速成为中国电动汽车初创企业的关键出口市场。这主要有两大原因:第一,电动汽车在挪威普及率全球最高...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://new.qq.com/omn/20210507/20210507A064NQ00.html\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/184ec009021ea635563e33a510a35b18","relate_stocks":{"NIO":"蔚来","XPEV":"小鹏汽车"},"source_url":"https://new.qq.com/omn/20210507/20210507A064NQ00.html","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2133503391","content_text":"腾讯科技讯 5月7日消息,特斯拉的中国竞争对手蔚来正在进军挪威市场,计划在9月份向这个北欧国家出口其智能电动汽车。该公司计划今年销售ES8电动SUV,明年销售续航可达1000公里的ET7豪华电动汽车。在此之前,电动汽车初创公司小鹏已经在去年12月下旬向挪威个人客户交付了100多辆G3智能SUV。\n挪威正迅速成为中国电动汽车初创企业的关键出口市场。这主要有两大原因:第一,电动汽车在挪威普及率全球最高,其纯电动汽车占新车总销量的54%以上。去年,挪威全国共售出14万多辆新乘用车,其中76789辆是纯电动汽车。在中国,尽管电动汽车去年的普及率为6%,但由于市场规模更大,年销量达117万辆。去年,中国市场共售出约1930万辆汽车。\n第二,在挪威,电动汽车不征收购置税和进口税。购车者还可以免交25%的增值税,而电动汽车用户可以节省至少50%的通行费。虽然挪威政府决定将零排放汽车的激励措施保留到2021年底,但也有计划修改激励措施,并根据市场发展情况进行调整。\n在挪威,2020年最畅销的电动汽车车型为奥迪e-tron SUV,售出了9227辆。特斯拉的Model 3以7770辆的销量位居第二,紧随其后的是大众ID.3,销量为7754辆、排在第四和第五位的分别是日产Leaf(销量为5221辆)和大众eGolf(销量为5068辆)。\n蔚来和小鹏将在挪威面临激烈的竞争。作为后来者,他们的成功取决于客户是否接受他们的技术和产品定价。在中国,这两家初创企业和理想汽车被称为特斯拉的挑战者。他们在3月份总共交付了17259辆汽车,不到特斯拉35478辆销量的一半。\n蔚来将在挪威推出ES8 SUV、ET7豪华轿车,该公司的挑战目标是特斯拉和大众,它们是该国电动汽车领域的领头羊。但蔚来希望“电池即服务”(Baas)模式能帮助其在欧洲获得优势。该模式允许客户购买电动汽车,同时付费订阅单独的电池租赁计划。Bass可以帮助将拥有电动汽车的前期成本降低约20%。\n小鹏最近宣布,计划为其P7全电动轿车配备更便宜的电池,以吸引对价格敏感的客户。从本月开始,快速充电的磷酸铁锂电池将与目前正在使用的锂镍锰钴电池组共同出现在P7上,客户可自己做出选择。小鹏即将上市的P5车型将安装激光雷达传感器,使其成为首批使用该技术的汽车之一。激光雷达是自动驾驶汽车的关键技术。\n除了初创企业,还将有更多中国汽车公司很快扩张到欧洲,吉利就是其中之一。作为中国最大汽车制造商之一、沃尔沃母公司,吉利上月发布了其新的电动汽车品牌Zeekr。吉利已经与包括百度和富士康在内的许多公司建立了合作伙伴关系,以制造智能电动汽车,这是其成为汽车行业全球领先者雄心的一部分。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":515,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":104155164,"gmtCreate":1620366943558,"gmtModify":1634205720093,"author":{"id":"3582619021047705","authorId":"3582619021047705","name":"gwp0123","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8af1bb83b5cc677b31517836f77e1dc0","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3582619021047705","idStr":"3582619021047705"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"只是技术性调整","listText":"只是技术性调整","text":"只是技术性调整","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/104155164","repostId":"1132107999","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1132107999","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据,旨在帮助投资者理解世界,做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1620366784,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1132107999?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-05-07 13:53","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"恒生科技指数跌超2%,舜宇光学科技跌超7%","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1132107999","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"5月7日,港股午后持续下挫,恒生指数转跌,早盘一度涨超0.8%;恒生科技指数跌超2%,舜宇光学科技跌超7%,快手-W跌超5%。近期大市缺乏明确方向,恒指上方仍面临30日、20日、10日线的阻力,后市依","content":"<p>5月7日,港股午后持续下挫,恒生指数转跌,早盘一度涨超0.8%;恒生科技指数跌超2%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/02382\">舜宇光学科技</a>跌超7%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/01024\">快手-W</a>跌超5%。</p><p>近期大市缺乏明确方向,恒指上方仍面临30日、20日、10日线的阻力,后市依然不甚乐观。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e8deff243ff6cbb3c2fda76fe82ee575\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>恒生科技指数跌超2%,舜宇光学科技跌超7%</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; 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0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n恒生科技指数跌超2%,舜宇光学科技跌超7%\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2021-05-07 13:53</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>5月7日,港股午后持续下挫,恒生指数转跌,早盘一度涨超0.8%;恒生科技指数跌超2%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/02382\">舜宇光学科技</a>跌超7%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/01024\">快手-W</a>跌超5%。</p><p>近期大市缺乏明确方向,恒指上方仍面临30日、20日、10日线的阻力,后市依然不甚乐观。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e8deff243ff6cbb3c2fda76fe82ee575\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c1cb237e736a4e03c939622e7b71e8e7","relate_stocks":{"HSTECH":"恒生科技指数","02382":"舜宇光学科技"},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1132107999","content_text":"5月7日,港股午后持续下挫,恒生指数转跌,早盘一度涨超0.8%;恒生科技指数跌超2%,舜宇光学科技跌超7%,快手-W跌超5%。近期大市缺乏明确方向,恒指上方仍面临30日、20日、10日线的阻力,后市依然不甚乐观。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":321,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":104370047,"gmtCreate":1620359810889,"gmtModify":1634205776434,"author":{"id":"3582619021047705","authorId":"3582619021047705","name":"gwp0123","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8af1bb83b5cc677b31517836f77e1dc0","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3582619021047705","idStr":"3582619021047705"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"believed it or not, I am going in...","listText":"believed it or not, I am going in...","text":"believed it or not, I am going in...","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/104370047","repostId":"1172819387","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1172819387","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"中国大陆领先的金融数据、信息和软件服务企业,总部位于上海陆家嘴金融中心。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Wind万得","id":"99","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c71e30d1317b4a5cb20a41998e10ac68"},"pubTimestamp":1620355302,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1172819387?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-05-07 10:41","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"“牛市女皇”旗下基金重挫,为何会给市场带来麻烦?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1172819387","media":"Wind万得","summary":"香港万得通讯社报道,随着明星成长股纷纷回调,最热门的成长股ETF也开始大幅下滑。分析师表示,如果此类热门基金抛售加剧,标普500指数将测试4000点下方。\n由“牛市女皇”凯茜·伍德(Cathie Wo","content":"<p>香港万得通讯社报道,随着明星成长股纷纷回调,最热门的成长股ETF也开始大幅下滑。分析师表示,如果此类热门基金抛售加剧,标普500指数将测试4000点下方。</p>\n<p>由“牛市女皇”凯茜·伍德(Cathie Wood)管理的ARK创新ETF在2020年实现了近150%的回报率,但它现在正在迅速放弃这些收益。这只ETF自2月高点已回撤逾30%,5月以来已下跌10.47%。周四,该指数再次下跌,截至当日收盘,该ETF跌3.07%至108.13美元。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4b391a72064ea5465f406126af8e8de3\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>这只ETF专注于生物技术、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/300024\">机器人</a>、人工智能、区块链和金融技术等领域的“颠覆性创新”股票。这是一只集中的主题型基金,会随少数高增长股票价格大幅波动。</p>\n<p>该基金的前10大资产占其投资组合的近一半。<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">特斯拉</a>的持股比例最高,约占总资产的11%,其次是美国移动支付公司Square、医疗企业Teladoc Health和流媒体平台Roku。排名前10位的公司还包括美国房地产信息查询网站<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/Z\">Zillow</a>、虚拟会议公司<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ZM\">Zoom</a>以及百度等。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/41f1cd9a349c955f212069251309920c\" tg-width=\"796\" tg-height=\"488\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>随着市场板块轮动从高增长、高倍数股票转向价值型和周期性股票,许多此类股票都出现了暴跌。尽管该ETF提供了对许多<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/C76.SI\">创新科技</a>领域的投资,这些领域可能在长期会带来超额回报,但随着投资者的风险偏好降温,拥挤的动量交易出现逆转,此类个股近期表现不佳。</p>\n<p>以特斯拉为例,该公司5月以来已跌逾6%。Zoom,Zillow和<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BIDU\">百度</a>的股价下跌了超过8%。</p>\n<p>该ETF仍然拥有210亿美元的资产,是最大的主动管理型ETF之一。但随着高估值个股回调,许多投资者纷纷撤离该基金。据《巴伦周刊》报道,投资者在过去一周赎回了7.7亿美元的股票,在过去一个月赎回了8.66亿美元的股票。</p>\n<p><b>高估值个股抛售潮料将持续</b></p>\n<p>展望未来,分析师对ARK创新ETF的未来持谨慎态度。随着人们对通胀的担忧与日俱增,高估值企业变得更难证明其合理性,而前期的强劲涨势也让许多投资者选择获利了结。Bear Traps Report显示,流入该ETF的资金大部分来自过去9个月。报告称,这意味着该ETF目前有50%的资金处于亏损状态。</p>\n<p>此外,分析师的悲观预期也来自于ARK创新ETF的投资风格。凯茜·伍德的投资风格是从自下而上选股的角度来看待风险的,而不是试图模拟各种市场条件下整体投资组合的风险敞口。随着ETF资产基础的膨胀,该基金的流动性下降,更容易遭受严重损失。</p>\n<p>另一部分人则担心该基金对市场造成的影响。Saut Strategy的安德鲁·亚当斯(AndrewAdams)称:“我真正的担心是,以ARK和许多类似基金为代表的高增长区域正处于大幅抛售的危险中,并有可能造成瀑布式下跌。如果这些更具投机性的领域共同开始抛售,那对市场来说不是一个好现象。”</p>\n<p>亚当斯写道:“如果高增长股票开始打破支撑,并带动其余市场,那么标准普尔500指数在3,980-4,000区域终将受到重新测试。”标普500指数周四收于4,201.62点,上涨0.82%。</p>\n<p>亚当斯称,测试3,980-4,000区域的支撑位只会标志着5%至6%的回落,但鉴于美股市场的损失会在其他领域造成更严重亏损。“我宁愿避免这种情况。”</p>\n<p>诚然,这只ETF的记录依然惊人,至少对那些赶上这股上涨浪潮的投资者来说是如此。自2017年年底以来,该ETF涨幅已超过456%,而同期标普500指数的涨幅为88%。ARK的客户投资组合经理雷纳托•莱吉(Renato Leggi)预计,能源和金融等行业的周期性轮动将会消失,并表示这些行业在长期内尤其“容易受到干扰”。他补充称:“我们的表现往往会在风险规避期回调,而在随后的风险偏好上升期,我们往往会表现出色。”</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>“牛市女皇”旗下基金重挫,为何会给市场带来麻烦?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n“牛市女皇”旗下基金重挫,为何会给市场带来麻烦?\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/99\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/c71e30d1317b4a5cb20a41998e10ac68);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Wind万得 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2021-05-07 10:41</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>香港万得通讯社报道,随着明星成长股纷纷回调,最热门的成长股ETF也开始大幅下滑。分析师表示,如果此类热门基金抛售加剧,标普500指数将测试4000点下方。</p>\n<p>由“牛市女皇”凯茜·伍德(Cathie Wood)管理的ARK创新ETF在2020年实现了近150%的回报率,但它现在正在迅速放弃这些收益。这只ETF自2月高点已回撤逾30%,5月以来已下跌10.47%。周四,该指数再次下跌,截至当日收盘,该ETF跌3.07%至108.13美元。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4b391a72064ea5465f406126af8e8de3\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>这只ETF专注于生物技术、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/300024\">机器人</a>、人工智能、区块链和金融技术等领域的“颠覆性创新”股票。这是一只集中的主题型基金,会随少数高增长股票价格大幅波动。</p>\n<p>该基金的前10大资产占其投资组合的近一半。<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">特斯拉</a>的持股比例最高,约占总资产的11%,其次是美国移动支付公司Square、医疗企业Teladoc Health和流媒体平台Roku。排名前10位的公司还包括美国房地产信息查询网站<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/Z\">Zillow</a>、虚拟会议公司<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ZM\">Zoom</a>以及百度等。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/41f1cd9a349c955f212069251309920c\" tg-width=\"796\" tg-height=\"488\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>随着市场板块轮动从高增长、高倍数股票转向价值型和周期性股票,许多此类股票都出现了暴跌。尽管该ETF提供了对许多<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/C76.SI\">创新科技</a>领域的投资,这些领域可能在长期会带来超额回报,但随着投资者的风险偏好降温,拥挤的动量交易出现逆转,此类个股近期表现不佳。</p>\n<p>以特斯拉为例,该公司5月以来已跌逾6%。Zoom,Zillow和<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BIDU\">百度</a>的股价下跌了超过8%。</p>\n<p>该ETF仍然拥有210亿美元的资产,是最大的主动管理型ETF之一。但随着高估值个股回调,许多投资者纷纷撤离该基金。据《巴伦周刊》报道,投资者在过去一周赎回了7.7亿美元的股票,在过去一个月赎回了8.66亿美元的股票。</p>\n<p><b>高估值个股抛售潮料将持续</b></p>\n<p>展望未来,分析师对ARK创新ETF的未来持谨慎态度。随着人们对通胀的担忧与日俱增,高估值企业变得更难证明其合理性,而前期的强劲涨势也让许多投资者选择获利了结。Bear Traps Report显示,流入该ETF的资金大部分来自过去9个月。报告称,这意味着该ETF目前有50%的资金处于亏损状态。</p>\n<p>此外,分析师的悲观预期也来自于ARK创新ETF的投资风格。凯茜·伍德的投资风格是从自下而上选股的角度来看待风险的,而不是试图模拟各种市场条件下整体投资组合的风险敞口。随着ETF资产基础的膨胀,该基金的流动性下降,更容易遭受严重损失。</p>\n<p>另一部分人则担心该基金对市场造成的影响。Saut Strategy的安德鲁·亚当斯(AndrewAdams)称:“我真正的担心是,以ARK和许多类似基金为代表的高增长区域正处于大幅抛售的危险中,并有可能造成瀑布式下跌。如果这些更具投机性的领域共同开始抛售,那对市场来说不是一个好现象。”</p>\n<p>亚当斯写道:“如果高增长股票开始打破支撑,并带动其余市场,那么标准普尔500指数在3,980-4,000区域终将受到重新测试。”标普500指数周四收于4,201.62点,上涨0.82%。</p>\n<p>亚当斯称,测试3,980-4,000区域的支撑位只会标志着5%至6%的回落,但鉴于美股市场的损失会在其他领域造成更严重亏损。“我宁愿避免这种情况。”</p>\n<p>诚然,这只ETF的记录依然惊人,至少对那些赶上这股上涨浪潮的投资者来说是如此。自2017年年底以来,该ETF涨幅已超过456%,而同期标普500指数的涨幅为88%。ARK的客户投资组合经理雷纳托•莱吉(Renato Leggi)预计,能源和金融等行业的周期性轮动将会消失,并表示这些行业在长期内尤其“容易受到干扰”。他补充称:“我们的表现往往会在风险规避期回调,而在随后的风险偏好上升期,我们往往会表现出色。”</p>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1243a3c3332646ecb05aa2adbc87f85e","relate_stocks":{"161125":"标普500","513500":"标普500ETF","ARKF":"ARK Fintech Innovation ETF","ARKG":"ARK Genomic Revolution ETF","ROKU":"Roku Inc","OEF":"标普100指数ETF-iShares","ARKK":"ARK Innovation ETF","BIDU":"百度","SPY":"标普500ETF","ZM":"Zoom","SQ":"Block",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","OEX":"标普100","SDS":"两倍做空标普500ETF","TSLA":"特斯拉","QNETCN":"纳斯达克中美互联网老虎指数","Z":"Zillow","UPRO":"三倍做多标普500ETF","TDOC":"Teladoc Health Inc.","SH":"标普500反向ETF","SSO":"两倍做多标普500ETF","ARKO":"ARKO Corp","IVV":"标普500指数ETF","SPXU":"三倍做空标普500ETF"},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1172819387","content_text":"香港万得通讯社报道,随着明星成长股纷纷回调,最热门的成长股ETF也开始大幅下滑。分析师表示,如果此类热门基金抛售加剧,标普500指数将测试4000点下方。\n由“牛市女皇”凯茜·伍德(Cathie Wood)管理的ARK创新ETF在2020年实现了近150%的回报率,但它现在正在迅速放弃这些收益。这只ETF自2月高点已回撤逾30%,5月以来已下跌10.47%。周四,该指数再次下跌,截至当日收盘,该ETF跌3.07%至108.13美元。\n\n这只ETF专注于生物技术、机器人、人工智能、区块链和金融技术等领域的“颠覆性创新”股票。这是一只集中的主题型基金,会随少数高增长股票价格大幅波动。\n该基金的前10大资产占其投资组合的近一半。特斯拉的持股比例最高,约占总资产的11%,其次是美国移动支付公司Square、医疗企业Teladoc Health和流媒体平台Roku。排名前10位的公司还包括美国房地产信息查询网站Zillow、虚拟会议公司Zoom以及百度等。\n\n随着市场板块轮动从高增长、高倍数股票转向价值型和周期性股票,许多此类股票都出现了暴跌。尽管该ETF提供了对许多创新科技领域的投资,这些领域可能在长期会带来超额回报,但随着投资者的风险偏好降温,拥挤的动量交易出现逆转,此类个股近期表现不佳。\n以特斯拉为例,该公司5月以来已跌逾6%。Zoom,Zillow和百度的股价下跌了超过8%。\n该ETF仍然拥有210亿美元的资产,是最大的主动管理型ETF之一。但随着高估值个股回调,许多投资者纷纷撤离该基金。据《巴伦周刊》报道,投资者在过去一周赎回了7.7亿美元的股票,在过去一个月赎回了8.66亿美元的股票。\n高估值个股抛售潮料将持续\n展望未来,分析师对ARK创新ETF的未来持谨慎态度。随着人们对通胀的担忧与日俱增,高估值企业变得更难证明其合理性,而前期的强劲涨势也让许多投资者选择获利了结。Bear Traps Report显示,流入该ETF的资金大部分来自过去9个月。报告称,这意味着该ETF目前有50%的资金处于亏损状态。\n此外,分析师的悲观预期也来自于ARK创新ETF的投资风格。凯茜·伍德的投资风格是从自下而上选股的角度来看待风险的,而不是试图模拟各种市场条件下整体投资组合的风险敞口。随着ETF资产基础的膨胀,该基金的流动性下降,更容易遭受严重损失。\n另一部分人则担心该基金对市场造成的影响。Saut Strategy的安德鲁·亚当斯(AndrewAdams)称:“我真正的担心是,以ARK和许多类似基金为代表的高增长区域正处于大幅抛售的危险中,并有可能造成瀑布式下跌。如果这些更具投机性的领域共同开始抛售,那对市场来说不是一个好现象。”\n亚当斯写道:“如果高增长股票开始打破支撑,并带动其余市场,那么标准普尔500指数在3,980-4,000区域终将受到重新测试。”标普500指数周四收于4,201.62点,上涨0.82%。\n亚当斯称,测试3,980-4,000区域的支撑位只会标志着5%至6%的回落,但鉴于美股市场的损失会在其他领域造成更严重亏损。“我宁愿避免这种情况。”\n诚然,这只ETF的记录依然惊人,至少对那些赶上这股上涨浪潮的投资者来说是如此。自2017年年底以来,该ETF涨幅已超过456%,而同期标普500指数的涨幅为88%。ARK的客户投资组合经理雷纳托•莱吉(Renato Leggi)预计,能源和金融等行业的周期性轮动将会消失,并表示这些行业在长期内尤其“容易受到干扰”。他补充称:“我们的表现往往会在风险规避期回调,而在随后的风险偏好上升期,我们往往会表现出色。”","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":293,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":104344314,"gmtCreate":1620359604438,"gmtModify":1634205777681,"author":{"id":"3582619021047705","authorId":"3582619021047705","name":"gwp0123","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8af1bb83b5cc677b31517836f77e1dc0","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3582619021047705","idStr":"3582619021047705"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"因为感情不好还是三观不合?","listText":"因为感情不好还是三观不合?","text":"因为感情不好还是三观不合?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/104344314","repostId":"1187390590","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1317,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":191815082,"gmtCreate":1620869066146,"gmtModify":1631888457379,"author":{"id":"3582619021047705","authorId":"3582619021047705","name":"gwp0123","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8af1bb83b5cc677b31517836f77e1dc0","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3582619021047705","idStr":"3582619021047705"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ARKX\">$ARK Space Exploration & Innovation ETF(ARKX)$</a>wowoooo! Slow down, what’s happening? lol","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ARKX\">$ARK Space Exploration & Innovation ETF(ARKX)$</a>wowoooo! Slow down, what’s happening? lol","text":"$ARK Space Exploration & Innovation ETF(ARKX)$wowoooo! Slow down, what’s happening? lol","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/191815082","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":565,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":105372057,"gmtCreate":1620274483979,"gmtModify":1634206450113,"author":{"id":"3582619021047705","authorId":"3582619021047705","name":"gwp0123","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8af1bb83b5cc677b31517836f77e1dc0","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3582619021047705","idStr":"3582619021047705"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/COIN\">$COIN(COIN)$</a>this week end we will see 250?","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/COIN\">$COIN(COIN)$</a>this week end we will see 250?","text":"$COIN(COIN)$this week end we will see 250?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":4,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/105372057","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":680,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":193895579,"gmtCreate":1620778723891,"gmtModify":1634196427108,"author":{"id":"3582619021047705","authorId":"3582619021047705","name":"gwp0123","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8af1bb83b5cc677b31517836f77e1dc0","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3582619021047705","idStr":"3582619021047705"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"这操作!!!","listText":"这操作!!!","text":"这操作!!!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/193895579","repostId":"2134585660","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1077,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":107419334,"gmtCreate":1620528262728,"gmtModify":1631888457383,"author":{"id":"3582619021047705","authorId":"3582619021047705","name":"gwp0123","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8af1bb83b5cc677b31517836f77e1dc0","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3582619021047705","idStr":"3582619021047705"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ARKX\">$ARK Space Exploration & Innovation ETF(ARKX)$</a>Huston! Do you read?","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ARKX\">$ARK Space Exploration & Innovation ETF(ARKX)$</a>Huston! Do you read?","text":"$ARK Space Exploration & Innovation ETF(ARKX)$Huston! Do you read?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/107419334","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":374,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":195717489,"gmtCreate":1621315567241,"gmtModify":1634192495657,"author":{"id":"3582619021047705","authorId":"3582619021047705","name":"gwp0123","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8af1bb83b5cc677b31517836f77e1dc0","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3582619021047705","idStr":"3582619021047705"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"这篇文章不错,转发给大家看看","listText":"这篇文章不错,转发给大家看看","text":"这篇文章不错,转发给大家看看","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/195717489","repostId":"192329953","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":192329953,"gmtCreate":1621148744872,"gmtModify":1634193720557,"author":{"id":"3579413426750982","authorId":"3579413426750982","name":"carmenng","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b80cc1d0cc65b4923a58dcf0d330f19c","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3579413426750982","idStr":"3579413426750982"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/COIN\">$Coinbase Global, Inc.(COIN)$</a>i m bankrupt ","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/COIN\">$Coinbase Global, Inc.(COIN)$</a>i m bankrupt ","text":"$Coinbase Global, Inc.(COIN)$i m bankrupt","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/27988f487123625b5de3704fc2b508dd","width":"1440","height":"2560"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/192329953","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1159,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":107517832,"gmtCreate":1620521966026,"gmtModify":1634198315523,"author":{"id":"3582619021047705","authorId":"3582619021047705","name":"gwp0123","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8af1bb83b5cc677b31517836f77e1dc0","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3582619021047705","idStr":"3582619021047705"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"yeeeessss, that would be our Cathie!!!!","listText":"yeeeessss, that would be our Cathie!!!!","text":"yeeeessss, that would be our Cathie!!!!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/107517832","repostId":"1161009494","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":227,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":104370047,"gmtCreate":1620359810889,"gmtModify":1634205776434,"author":{"id":"3582619021047705","authorId":"3582619021047705","name":"gwp0123","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8af1bb83b5cc677b31517836f77e1dc0","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3582619021047705","idStr":"3582619021047705"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"believed it or not, I am going in...","listText":"believed it or not, I am going in...","text":"believed it or not, I am going in...","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/104370047","repostId":"1172819387","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1172819387","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"中国大陆领先的金融数据、信息和软件服务企业,总部位于上海陆家嘴金融中心。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Wind万得","id":"99","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c71e30d1317b4a5cb20a41998e10ac68"},"pubTimestamp":1620355302,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1172819387?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-05-07 10:41","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"“牛市女皇”旗下基金重挫,为何会给市场带来麻烦?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1172819387","media":"Wind万得","summary":"香港万得通讯社报道,随着明星成长股纷纷回调,最热门的成长股ETF也开始大幅下滑。分析师表示,如果此类热门基金抛售加剧,标普500指数将测试4000点下方。\n由“牛市女皇”凯茜·伍德(Cathie Wo","content":"<p>香港万得通讯社报道,随着明星成长股纷纷回调,最热门的成长股ETF也开始大幅下滑。分析师表示,如果此类热门基金抛售加剧,标普500指数将测试4000点下方。</p>\n<p>由“牛市女皇”凯茜·伍德(Cathie Wood)管理的ARK创新ETF在2020年实现了近150%的回报率,但它现在正在迅速放弃这些收益。这只ETF自2月高点已回撤逾30%,5月以来已下跌10.47%。周四,该指数再次下跌,截至当日收盘,该ETF跌3.07%至108.13美元。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4b391a72064ea5465f406126af8e8de3\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>这只ETF专注于生物技术、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/300024\">机器人</a>、人工智能、区块链和金融技术等领域的“颠覆性创新”股票。这是一只集中的主题型基金,会随少数高增长股票价格大幅波动。</p>\n<p>该基金的前10大资产占其投资组合的近一半。<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">特斯拉</a>的持股比例最高,约占总资产的11%,其次是美国移动支付公司Square、医疗企业Teladoc Health和流媒体平台Roku。排名前10位的公司还包括美国房地产信息查询网站<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/Z\">Zillow</a>、虚拟会议公司<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ZM\">Zoom</a>以及百度等。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/41f1cd9a349c955f212069251309920c\" tg-width=\"796\" tg-height=\"488\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>随着市场板块轮动从高增长、高倍数股票转向价值型和周期性股票,许多此类股票都出现了暴跌。尽管该ETF提供了对许多<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/C76.SI\">创新科技</a>领域的投资,这些领域可能在长期会带来超额回报,但随着投资者的风险偏好降温,拥挤的动量交易出现逆转,此类个股近期表现不佳。</p>\n<p>以特斯拉为例,该公司5月以来已跌逾6%。Zoom,Zillow和<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BIDU\">百度</a>的股价下跌了超过8%。</p>\n<p>该ETF仍然拥有210亿美元的资产,是最大的主动管理型ETF之一。但随着高估值个股回调,许多投资者纷纷撤离该基金。据《巴伦周刊》报道,投资者在过去一周赎回了7.7亿美元的股票,在过去一个月赎回了8.66亿美元的股票。</p>\n<p><b>高估值个股抛售潮料将持续</b></p>\n<p>展望未来,分析师对ARK创新ETF的未来持谨慎态度。随着人们对通胀的担忧与日俱增,高估值企业变得更难证明其合理性,而前期的强劲涨势也让许多投资者选择获利了结。Bear Traps Report显示,流入该ETF的资金大部分来自过去9个月。报告称,这意味着该ETF目前有50%的资金处于亏损状态。</p>\n<p>此外,分析师的悲观预期也来自于ARK创新ETF的投资风格。凯茜·伍德的投资风格是从自下而上选股的角度来看待风险的,而不是试图模拟各种市场条件下整体投资组合的风险敞口。随着ETF资产基础的膨胀,该基金的流动性下降,更容易遭受严重损失。</p>\n<p>另一部分人则担心该基金对市场造成的影响。Saut Strategy的安德鲁·亚当斯(AndrewAdams)称:“我真正的担心是,以ARK和许多类似基金为代表的高增长区域正处于大幅抛售的危险中,并有可能造成瀑布式下跌。如果这些更具投机性的领域共同开始抛售,那对市场来说不是一个好现象。”</p>\n<p>亚当斯写道:“如果高增长股票开始打破支撑,并带动其余市场,那么标准普尔500指数在3,980-4,000区域终将受到重新测试。”标普500指数周四收于4,201.62点,上涨0.82%。</p>\n<p>亚当斯称,测试3,980-4,000区域的支撑位只会标志着5%至6%的回落,但鉴于美股市场的损失会在其他领域造成更严重亏损。“我宁愿避免这种情况。”</p>\n<p>诚然,这只ETF的记录依然惊人,至少对那些赶上这股上涨浪潮的投资者来说是如此。自2017年年底以来,该ETF涨幅已超过456%,而同期标普500指数的涨幅为88%。ARK的客户投资组合经理雷纳托•莱吉(Renato Leggi)预计,能源和金融等行业的周期性轮动将会消失,并表示这些行业在长期内尤其“容易受到干扰”。他补充称:“我们的表现往往会在风险规避期回调,而在随后的风险偏好上升期,我们往往会表现出色。”</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>“牛市女皇”旗下基金重挫,为何会给市场带来麻烦?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; 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margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n“牛市女皇”旗下基金重挫,为何会给市场带来麻烦?\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/99\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/c71e30d1317b4a5cb20a41998e10ac68);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Wind万得 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2021-05-07 10:41</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>香港万得通讯社报道,随着明星成长股纷纷回调,最热门的成长股ETF也开始大幅下滑。分析师表示,如果此类热门基金抛售加剧,标普500指数将测试4000点下方。</p>\n<p>由“牛市女皇”凯茜·伍德(Cathie Wood)管理的ARK创新ETF在2020年实现了近150%的回报率,但它现在正在迅速放弃这些收益。这只ETF自2月高点已回撤逾30%,5月以来已下跌10.47%。周四,该指数再次下跌,截至当日收盘,该ETF跌3.07%至108.13美元。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4b391a72064ea5465f406126af8e8de3\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>这只ETF专注于生物技术、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/300024\">机器人</a>、人工智能、区块链和金融技术等领域的“颠覆性创新”股票。这是一只集中的主题型基金,会随少数高增长股票价格大幅波动。</p>\n<p>该基金的前10大资产占其投资组合的近一半。<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">特斯拉</a>的持股比例最高,约占总资产的11%,其次是美国移动支付公司Square、医疗企业Teladoc Health和流媒体平台Roku。排名前10位的公司还包括美国房地产信息查询网站<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/Z\">Zillow</a>、虚拟会议公司<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ZM\">Zoom</a>以及百度等。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/41f1cd9a349c955f212069251309920c\" tg-width=\"796\" tg-height=\"488\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>随着市场板块轮动从高增长、高倍数股票转向价值型和周期性股票,许多此类股票都出现了暴跌。尽管该ETF提供了对许多<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/C76.SI\">创新科技</a>领域的投资,这些领域可能在长期会带来超额回报,但随着投资者的风险偏好降温,拥挤的动量交易出现逆转,此类个股近期表现不佳。</p>\n<p>以特斯拉为例,该公司5月以来已跌逾6%。Zoom,Zillow和<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BIDU\">百度</a>的股价下跌了超过8%。</p>\n<p>该ETF仍然拥有210亿美元的资产,是最大的主动管理型ETF之一。但随着高估值个股回调,许多投资者纷纷撤离该基金。据《巴伦周刊》报道,投资者在过去一周赎回了7.7亿美元的股票,在过去一个月赎回了8.66亿美元的股票。</p>\n<p><b>高估值个股抛售潮料将持续</b></p>\n<p>展望未来,分析师对ARK创新ETF的未来持谨慎态度。随着人们对通胀的担忧与日俱增,高估值企业变得更难证明其合理性,而前期的强劲涨势也让许多投资者选择获利了结。Bear Traps Report显示,流入该ETF的资金大部分来自过去9个月。报告称,这意味着该ETF目前有50%的资金处于亏损状态。</p>\n<p>此外,分析师的悲观预期也来自于ARK创新ETF的投资风格。凯茜·伍德的投资风格是从自下而上选股的角度来看待风险的,而不是试图模拟各种市场条件下整体投资组合的风险敞口。随着ETF资产基础的膨胀,该基金的流动性下降,更容易遭受严重损失。</p>\n<p>另一部分人则担心该基金对市场造成的影响。Saut Strategy的安德鲁·亚当斯(AndrewAdams)称:“我真正的担心是,以ARK和许多类似基金为代表的高增长区域正处于大幅抛售的危险中,并有可能造成瀑布式下跌。如果这些更具投机性的领域共同开始抛售,那对市场来说不是一个好现象。”</p>\n<p>亚当斯写道:“如果高增长股票开始打破支撑,并带动其余市场,那么标准普尔500指数在3,980-4,000区域终将受到重新测试。”标普500指数周四收于4,201.62点,上涨0.82%。</p>\n<p>亚当斯称,测试3,980-4,000区域的支撑位只会标志着5%至6%的回落,但鉴于美股市场的损失会在其他领域造成更严重亏损。“我宁愿避免这种情况。”</p>\n<p>诚然,这只ETF的记录依然惊人,至少对那些赶上这股上涨浪潮的投资者来说是如此。自2017年年底以来,该ETF涨幅已超过456%,而同期标普500指数的涨幅为88%。ARK的客户投资组合经理雷纳托•莱吉(Renato Leggi)预计,能源和金融等行业的周期性轮动将会消失,并表示这些行业在长期内尤其“容易受到干扰”。他补充称:“我们的表现往往会在风险规避期回调,而在随后的风险偏好上升期,我们往往会表现出色。”</p>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1243a3c3332646ecb05aa2adbc87f85e","relate_stocks":{"161125":"标普500","513500":"标普500ETF","ARKF":"ARK Fintech Innovation ETF","ARKG":"ARK Genomic Revolution ETF","ROKU":"Roku Inc","OEF":"标普100指数ETF-iShares","ARKK":"ARK Innovation ETF","BIDU":"百度","SPY":"标普500ETF","ZM":"Zoom","SQ":"Block",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","OEX":"标普100","SDS":"两倍做空标普500ETF","TSLA":"特斯拉","QNETCN":"纳斯达克中美互联网老虎指数","Z":"Zillow","UPRO":"三倍做多标普500ETF","TDOC":"Teladoc Health Inc.","SH":"标普500反向ETF","SSO":"两倍做多标普500ETF","ARKO":"ARKO Corp","IVV":"标普500指数ETF","SPXU":"三倍做空标普500ETF"},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1172819387","content_text":"香港万得通讯社报道,随着明星成长股纷纷回调,最热门的成长股ETF也开始大幅下滑。分析师表示,如果此类热门基金抛售加剧,标普500指数将测试4000点下方。\n由“牛市女皇”凯茜·伍德(Cathie Wood)管理的ARK创新ETF在2020年实现了近150%的回报率,但它现在正在迅速放弃这些收益。这只ETF自2月高点已回撤逾30%,5月以来已下跌10.47%。周四,该指数再次下跌,截至当日收盘,该ETF跌3.07%至108.13美元。\n\n这只ETF专注于生物技术、机器人、人工智能、区块链和金融技术等领域的“颠覆性创新”股票。这是一只集中的主题型基金,会随少数高增长股票价格大幅波动。\n该基金的前10大资产占其投资组合的近一半。特斯拉的持股比例最高,约占总资产的11%,其次是美国移动支付公司Square、医疗企业Teladoc Health和流媒体平台Roku。排名前10位的公司还包括美国房地产信息查询网站Zillow、虚拟会议公司Zoom以及百度等。\n\n随着市场板块轮动从高增长、高倍数股票转向价值型和周期性股票,许多此类股票都出现了暴跌。尽管该ETF提供了对许多创新科技领域的投资,这些领域可能在长期会带来超额回报,但随着投资者的风险偏好降温,拥挤的动量交易出现逆转,此类个股近期表现不佳。\n以特斯拉为例,该公司5月以来已跌逾6%。Zoom,Zillow和百度的股价下跌了超过8%。\n该ETF仍然拥有210亿美元的资产,是最大的主动管理型ETF之一。但随着高估值个股回调,许多投资者纷纷撤离该基金。据《巴伦周刊》报道,投资者在过去一周赎回了7.7亿美元的股票,在过去一个月赎回了8.66亿美元的股票。\n高估值个股抛售潮料将持续\n展望未来,分析师对ARK创新ETF的未来持谨慎态度。随着人们对通胀的担忧与日俱增,高估值企业变得更难证明其合理性,而前期的强劲涨势也让许多投资者选择获利了结。Bear Traps Report显示,流入该ETF的资金大部分来自过去9个月。报告称,这意味着该ETF目前有50%的资金处于亏损状态。\n此外,分析师的悲观预期也来自于ARK创新ETF的投资风格。凯茜·伍德的投资风格是从自下而上选股的角度来看待风险的,而不是试图模拟各种市场条件下整体投资组合的风险敞口。随着ETF资产基础的膨胀,该基金的流动性下降,更容易遭受严重损失。\n另一部分人则担心该基金对市场造成的影响。Saut Strategy的安德鲁·亚当斯(AndrewAdams)称:“我真正的担心是,以ARK和许多类似基金为代表的高增长区域正处于大幅抛售的危险中,并有可能造成瀑布式下跌。如果这些更具投机性的领域共同开始抛售,那对市场来说不是一个好现象。”\n亚当斯写道:“如果高增长股票开始打破支撑,并带动其余市场,那么标准普尔500指数在3,980-4,000区域终将受到重新测试。”标普500指数周四收于4,201.62点,上涨0.82%。\n亚当斯称,测试3,980-4,000区域的支撑位只会标志着5%至6%的回落,但鉴于美股市场的损失会在其他领域造成更严重亏损。“我宁愿避免这种情况。”\n诚然,这只ETF的记录依然惊人,至少对那些赶上这股上涨浪潮的投资者来说是如此。自2017年年底以来,该ETF涨幅已超过456%,而同期标普500指数的涨幅为88%。ARK的客户投资组合经理雷纳托•莱吉(Renato Leggi)预计,能源和金融等行业的周期性轮动将会消失,并表示这些行业在长期内尤其“容易受到干扰”。他补充称:“我们的表现往往会在风险规避期回调,而在随后的风险偏好上升期,我们往往会表现出色。”","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":293,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":196885697,"gmtCreate":1621042398619,"gmtModify":1634194376388,"author":{"id":"3582619021047705","authorId":"3582619021047705","name":"gwp0123","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8af1bb83b5cc677b31517836f77e1dc0","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3582619021047705","idStr":"3582619021047705"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"OK OK","listText":"OK OK","text":"OK OK","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/196885697","repostId":"1164480285","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":367,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":198547027,"gmtCreate":1620974960669,"gmtModify":1634194830082,"author":{"id":"3582619021047705","authorId":"3582619021047705","name":"gwp0123","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8af1bb83b5cc677b31517836f77e1dc0","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3582619021047705","idStr":"3582619021047705"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"该好好整顿","listText":"该好好整顿","text":"该好好整顿","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/198547027","repostId":"1161975291","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1197,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":199185655,"gmtCreate":1620691448177,"gmtModify":1634197144751,"author":{"id":"3582619021047705","authorId":"3582619021047705","name":"gwp0123","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8af1bb83b5cc677b31517836f77e1dc0","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3582619021047705","idStr":"3582619021047705"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"内爆是啥意思","listText":"内爆是啥意思","text":"内爆是啥意思","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/199185655","repostId":"1182815829","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1182815829","pubTimestamp":1620655587,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1182815829?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-05-10 22:06","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"美国经济可能”内爆“,在这之前还能买什么?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1182815829","media":"美港电讯","summary":"预计通胀水平在2022年1月之前,不会达到峰值,市场在未来的8个月内还大有可为。","content":"<p>通胀已经成为最近一年多市场最关心的主题,现在的问题是通胀水平会在什么时候达到峰值,留给市场的通胀交易空间还有多大。美国银行的首席投资官Michael Hartnett测算,<b><u>预计通胀水平在2022年1月之前,不会达到峰值,市场在未来的8个月内还大有可为。</u></b></p>\n<p>Michael Hartnett在美国非农就业报告前表示,这是可“追逐风险的事件”(a \"highly risk-on event\"),因为在最近的12次非农报告期间,标普500指数在其中10次报告公布当天的平均涨幅达到1%。他表示,在未来几个月<b>,更重要的不是就业数据,而是薪资,</b>月平均时薪环比超过0.3%,可能会促使2022年通胀预测的新升级。</p>\n<p>根据现在的利率市场数据,利用5年期远期盈亏平衡曲线,分析师发现5年期通胀预期将在2022年1月22日达到2.7%的峰值(高于6个月前的2.0%),<b>而且这个数字可能还会上升。</b></p>\n<p>在通胀预期不断上升的背景下,未来8个多月该如何交易?Michael Hartnett认为有两种方式:</p>\n<blockquote>\n 一、长期视角,或1-2年的观点:更高的通胀率=更高的收益率=实物资产>金融资产,大宗商品>债券,小盘>大盘,价值>成长;二、战术视角,或1-2季度观点:峰值定位、政策、利润(“Positioning, Policy, Profits,3Ps”)+利率上升、监管、再分配(“rising Rates, Regulation, Redistribution 3Rs”) =未来3-6个月的低/负股票/信贷回报=做多通胀资产和价值资产。\n</blockquote>\n<p><b>估值位置方面</b>,Michael Hartnett指出,最近相对于旧经济型股票,新经济新型股票遭遇了净流出,(如AARK与BRK之间的对比),“这让人想起了2000和2001年泡沫后的价格行动”。目前,以科技股为代表的新经济型股票,估值和体量受到了限制, FAAMG 5家公司的市值,相当于全球GDP排行榜上位居第三的国家GDP体量。</p>\n<p><b>政策方面</b>,好消息是,美联储一直比较友好,至今没有放出收紧的风声。不好的消息是,尽管嘴上不说,全球4大央行QE规模是在逐渐减少的。从2020年的8.5万亿美元降至2021年的3.4万亿美元,22年仅为0.4万亿美元;在今年的第二季度第三季度,“宏观经济越强,QE规模缩减越快,缩减的量越大。”</p>\n<p><b>利润方面</b>,Michael Hartnett指出,中国债券年初至今的表现优于股票,而在第二季度,30年期中国国债的表现优于纳斯达克指数。与此同时,周期性的石油表现超过黄金。不过,美国银行的全球每股收益模型(Global EPS model)显示,全球每股收益增长将达到峰值,这是未来利润最高点的最明显迹象是4月份36%的增长率。</p>\n<p>而密切跟踪ISM的SOX半导体指数也未能创出新高,即超过3300。<b>接下来几个月,随着全球经济重新开放,每股收益修正峰值随即到来。</b></p>\n<p><b>Michael Hartnett 还对债务和收益率发表了看法</b>:IMF数据表显示,自1880年以来,从公共债务占GDP的比重以及发达经济体的债券收益率关系看,收益率的大幅增长并非由债务本身(如日本)推动,而是债务在促进强劲经济增长和通胀方面取得的成功。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3ac5f90849797d9fc7adde4ebe68f493\" tg-width=\"529\" tg-height=\"507\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>换言之,如果拜登政府注入的数万亿债务融资刺激计划,真的转化为对GDP增长的非暂时性提振,那么所有的赌注都泡汤了。<b>如果拜登的经济刺激计划奏效,可能导致的结果可能是讽刺的:即随着美债收益率飙升,美国经济出现内爆。</b></p>","source":"live_meigang","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>美国经济可能”内爆“,在这之前还能买什么?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ 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0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n美国经济可能”内爆“,在这之前还能买什么?\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-05-10 22:06 北京时间 <a href=https://news.ushknews.com/mobile/details.html?id=1002899><strong>美港电讯</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>通胀已经成为最近一年多市场最关心的主题,现在的问题是通胀水平会在什么时候达到峰值,留给市场的通胀交易空间还有多大。美国银行的首席投资官Michael Hartnett测算,预计通胀水平在2022年1月之前,不会达到峰值,市场在未来的8个月内还大有可为。\nMichael Hartnett在美国非农就业报告前表示,这是可“追逐风险的事件”(a \"highly risk-on event\"),因为在最近...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://news.ushknews.com/mobile/details.html?id=1002899\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2578fef036607345dce47cc401e172a3","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://news.ushknews.com/mobile/details.html?id=1002899","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1182815829","content_text":"通胀已经成为最近一年多市场最关心的主题,现在的问题是通胀水平会在什么时候达到峰值,留给市场的通胀交易空间还有多大。美国银行的首席投资官Michael Hartnett测算,预计通胀水平在2022年1月之前,不会达到峰值,市场在未来的8个月内还大有可为。\nMichael Hartnett在美国非农就业报告前表示,这是可“追逐风险的事件”(a \"highly risk-on event\"),因为在最近的12次非农报告期间,标普500指数在其中10次报告公布当天的平均涨幅达到1%。他表示,在未来几个月,更重要的不是就业数据,而是薪资,月平均时薪环比超过0.3%,可能会促使2022年通胀预测的新升级。\n根据现在的利率市场数据,利用5年期远期盈亏平衡曲线,分析师发现5年期通胀预期将在2022年1月22日达到2.7%的峰值(高于6个月前的2.0%),而且这个数字可能还会上升。\n在通胀预期不断上升的背景下,未来8个多月该如何交易?Michael Hartnett认为有两种方式:\n\n 一、长期视角,或1-2年的观点:更高的通胀率=更高的收益率=实物资产>金融资产,大宗商品>债券,小盘>大盘,价值>成长;二、战术视角,或1-2季度观点:峰值定位、政策、利润(“Positioning, Policy, Profits,3Ps”)+利率上升、监管、再分配(“rising Rates, Regulation, Redistribution 3Rs”) =未来3-6个月的低/负股票/信贷回报=做多通胀资产和价值资产。\n\n估值位置方面,Michael Hartnett指出,最近相对于旧经济型股票,新经济新型股票遭遇了净流出,(如AARK与BRK之间的对比),“这让人想起了2000和2001年泡沫后的价格行动”。目前,以科技股为代表的新经济型股票,估值和体量受到了限制, FAAMG 5家公司的市值,相当于全球GDP排行榜上位居第三的国家GDP体量。\n政策方面,好消息是,美联储一直比较友好,至今没有放出收紧的风声。不好的消息是,尽管嘴上不说,全球4大央行QE规模是在逐渐减少的。从2020年的8.5万亿美元降至2021年的3.4万亿美元,22年仅为0.4万亿美元;在今年的第二季度第三季度,“宏观经济越强,QE规模缩减越快,缩减的量越大。”\n利润方面,Michael Hartnett指出,中国债券年初至今的表现优于股票,而在第二季度,30年期中国国债的表现优于纳斯达克指数。与此同时,周期性的石油表现超过黄金。不过,美国银行的全球每股收益模型(Global EPS model)显示,全球每股收益增长将达到峰值,这是未来利润最高点的最明显迹象是4月份36%的增长率。\n而密切跟踪ISM的SOX半导体指数也未能创出新高,即超过3300。接下来几个月,随着全球经济重新开放,每股收益修正峰值随即到来。\nMichael Hartnett 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