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AlexMachinic
2021-04-29
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2021-04-26
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What to watch in the markets this week
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2021-04-25
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2021-04-25
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What to watch in the markets this week
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2021-04-25
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2021-04-25
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2021-04-25
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2021-04-25
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What to watch in the markets this week
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2021-04-25
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The president addresses a joint session of Congress Wednesday evening.It’s a huge week for earnings with about a third of the S&P 500 reporting, including Big Tech names, such as Apple,Microsoft,Alphabet and Amazon.As many have already done, firms like Boeing, Ford,Caterpillar and McDonald’s, are likely to detail cost pressures they are facing from rising materials and transportation costs and supply chain disruptions.At the same time, the Fed is expected to defend its policy of letting inflation run hot, while assuring markets it sees the pick-up in prices as only temporary. The central bank meets on Tuesday and Wednesday.The central bank takes the main stage“I think the Fed would like not to be a feature next week, but the Fed will be forced from the background because of concerns about inflation,” said Diane Swonk, chief economist at Grant Thornton.The central bank is not expected to make any policy moves, but Fed Chairman Jerome Powell’s press briefing following the meeting Wednesday will be closely watched.So far, the barrage of earnings news has been positive, with 86% of companies reporting earnings beats. Corporate profits are expected to be up about 33.9% for the first quarter, based on estimates and actual reports, according to Refinitiv. Revenues are about 9.9% higher.There is important inflation data Friday when the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge is reported.The personal consumption expenditure report is expected to show a 1.8% rise in core inflation, still below the Fed’s target of 2%. Other data releases include the first-quarter gross domestic product on Thursday, which is expected to have grown by 6.5%, according to Dow Jones.“I think the Fed has no urgency to shift monetary policy at this point,” said Ian Lyngen, head of U.S. rates strategy at BMO. “The Fed needs to acknowledge that the data is improving. We had a strong first quarter.”“The Fed needs to acknowledge that but at the same time they’re keeping extremely accommodative policy in place, so they’ll have to make a note to the fact that the easy policy is warranted,” he said.Lyngen said the Fed will likely point to continued concerns about the pandemic globally as a potential risk to the economic recovery.Powell is also expected to once more explain that the Fed will let inflation rise above its 2% target for a period of time before it raises rates so that the economy can have more time to heal. “It’s going to be a challenge for the Fed,” said Swonk.The base effects for the next several months will make inflation appear to have jumped sharply because of the comparison to a weak period last year. The consumer price index for April could be above 3%, compared to 2.6% last month, Swonk added.“The Fed is trying to let a lot more people get out onto the dance floor before it calls ‘last call,’” she said. “Really what Powell has been saying since day one is if we take care of people on the margins and bring them back into the labor force, the rest will take care of itself.”Stocks were slightly lower in the past week, and Treasury yields held at lower levels. The 10-year yield,which moves opposite price, was at 1.55% Friday.The S&P 500was down 0.1%, ending the week at 4,180, while Nasdaq Composite was down nearly 0.3% at 14,016. The Dow was off just shy of 0.5% at 34,043.Tax hike prospectsStocks were hit hard on Thursday when after a news report said that Biden is expected to propose a capital gains tax rate of 39.6% for people earning more than $1 million a year.Combined with the 3.8% net investment income tax, the new levy would more than double the long term capital gains rate of 20% or the richest Americans.Strategists said Biden is expected to propose raising the income tax rate for those earning more than $400,000.“I think a lot of people are starting to price in the risk there going to be a significant increase in both corporate and capital gains taxes,” said Lyngen.So far, companies have not provided much in the way of commentary on the proposed hike in corporate taxes to 28% from 21% but they have been talking about other costs.David Bianco, chief investment strategist for the Americas at DWS, said he expects larger companies will do better dealing with supply chain constraints than smaller ones. Big Tech is also likely to fare better during the semiconductor shortage than auto makers, which have already announced production shutdowns, he said.“Next week is tech week. I think we’re going to get down on our knees and just be in awe of their business models and their ability to grow at a behemoth scale,” Bianco said.He said he’s not in favor of Wall Street’s popular trade into cyclicals and out of growth. He still favors growth.“We’re overweight equities really because we’re concerned about rising interest rates,” Bianco said. “I’m not bullish in that I expect the market to rise that much from here.”“We stuck with growth and dug deeper into bond substitutes, utilities, staples, real estate,” he said, adding he is underweight industrials, energy and materials. “Energy is doomed. It’s being nationalized via regulation. I do like industrials, they are well-run companies, but I do think infrastructure spending expectations for classic infrastructure are too high.”He also said industrials are good businesses, but the stocks have become overvalued.Bianco said he likes big box stores, but smaller retailers are facing big challenges that were already impacting them prior to Covid. He also finds small biotech firms attractive.“I like healthcare stocks. Those valuations are reasonable. People have been paranoid about politicians beating on them since 1992. They manage through it and lately they’ve been delivering,” he said.Week ahead calendarMondayEarnings:Tesla,Canadian National Railway, Canon,Check Point Software,Otis Worldwide, Vale,Ameriprise,NXP Semiconductor,Albertsons, Royal Phillips8:30 a.m. Durable goodsTuesdayFOMC begins two day meetingEarnings:Microsoft,Alphabet,Visa,Amgen,Advanced Micro Devices,3M,General Electric,Eli Lilly, Hasbro,United Parcel Service,BP,Novartis,JetBlue,Pultegroup,Archer Daniels Midland,Waste Management,Starbucks,Texas Instrument,Chubb,Mondelez,FireEye,Corning,Raytheon9:00 a.m. S&P/Case-Shiller9:00 a.m. FHFA home prices10:00 a.m. Consumer confidence10:00 a.m. Housing vacanciesWednesdayEarnings:Apple, Boeing,Facebook,Qualcomm,Ford,MGM Resorts,Humana,Norfolk Southern,General Dynamics,Boston Scientific, eBay, Samsung Electronics, GlaxoSmithKline,Yum Brands, SiriusXM, Aflac,Cheesecake Factory,Community Health System,CIT Group,Entergy,CME Group,Hess,Ryder System8:30 a.m. Advance economic indicators2:00 p.m. Fed statement2:30 p.m. Fed Chairman Jerome Powell briefingThursdayEarnings:Amazon,Caterpillar,McDonald’s,Twitter,Bristol-Myers Squibb,Comcast,Merck,Northrop Grumman, Airbus,Kraft Heinz,Intercontinental Exchange,Mastercard,Gilead Sciences,U.S. Steel, Cirrus Logic,Texas Roadhouse, Cabot Oil, PG&E,Royal Dutch Shell,Church & Dwight, Carlyle Group,Southern Co.8:30 a.m. Initial jobless claims8:30 a.m. Real GDP Q110:00 a.m. Pending home salesFridayEarnings:ExxonMobil,Chevron,Colgate-Palmolive,AstraZeneca,Clorox,Barclays, AbbVie, BNP Paribas,Weyerhaeuser,Illinois Tool Works, CBOE Global Markets, Lazard,Newell Brands,Aon,LyondellBasell,Pitney Bowes,Phillips 66,Charter Communications8:30 a.m. Personal income and spending8:30 a.m. Employment cost index Q19:45 a.m. Chicago PMI10:00 a.m. Consumer sentimentSaturdayEarnings:Berkshire Hathaway","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":77,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":375526166,"gmtCreate":1619365255255,"gmtModify":1634273996919,"author":{"id":"3582416963767497","authorId":"3582416963767497","name":"AlexMachinic","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0070651b1b40a66246df888d1fcda127","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3582416963767497","authorIdStr":"3582416963767497"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Ok","listText":"Ok","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/375526166","repostId":"2130364241","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":279,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":375521277,"gmtCreate":1619365029799,"gmtModify":1634273998570,"author":{"id":"3582416963767497","authorId":"3582416963767497","name":"AlexMachinic","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0070651b1b40a66246df888d1fcda127","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3582416963767497","authorIdStr":"3582416963767497"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Great news","listText":"Great news","text":"Great news","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/375521277","repostId":"1184404050","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1184404050","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1619319329,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1184404050?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-04-25 10:55","market":"us","language":"en","title":"What to watch in the markets this week","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1184404050","media":"CNBC","summary":"The last week of April will be extremely busy for markets with a third of the S&P 500 reporting earnings, a Federal Reserve meeting, and new spending and tax proposals from the White House.Big Tech is a highlight of the earnings calendar, with Apple, Microsoft, Amazon, Facebook and Alphabet all releasing results.The Fed is not expected to take any action, but economists expect it to defend its policy to let inflation run hot.There is some key data including first-quarter gross domestic product a","content":"<div>\n<p>KEY POINTSThe last week of April will be extremely busy for markets with a third of the S&P 500 reporting earnings, a Federal Reserve meeting, and new spending and tax proposals from the White House....</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.cnbc.com/2021/04/23/taxes-and-inflation-will-be-key-themes-for-markets-in-the-week-ahead.html\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n","source":"cnbc_highlight","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; 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height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWhat to watch in the markets this week\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-04-25 10:55 GMT+8 <a href=https://www.cnbc.com/2021/04/23/taxes-and-inflation-will-be-key-themes-for-markets-in-the-week-ahead.html><strong>CNBC</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>KEY POINTSThe last week of April will be extremely busy for markets with a third of the S&P 500 reporting earnings, a Federal Reserve meeting, and new spending and tax proposals from the White House....</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.cnbc.com/2021/04/23/taxes-and-inflation-will-be-key-themes-for-markets-in-the-week-ahead.html\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"GOOGL":"谷歌A",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","AAPL":"苹果",".DJI":"道琼斯","GOOG":"谷歌","TSLA":"特斯拉","AMZN":"亚马逊",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"source_url":"https://www.cnbc.com/2021/04/23/taxes-and-inflation-will-be-key-themes-for-markets-in-the-week-ahead.html","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/72bb72e1b84c09fca865c6dcb1bbcd16","article_id":"1184404050","content_text":"KEY POINTSThe last week of April will be extremely busy for markets with a third of the S&P 500 reporting earnings, a Federal Reserve meeting, and new spending and tax proposals from the White House.Big Tech is a highlight of the earnings calendar, with Apple, Microsoft, Amazon, Facebook and Alphabet all releasing results.The Fed is not expected to take any action, but economists expect it to defend its policy to let inflation run hot.There is some key data including first-quarter gross domestic product and the Fed’s favorite inflation measure: the personal consumption expenditures deflator.The final week of April is going to be a busy one for markets with a Federal Reserve meeting and a deluge of earnings news.Hot topics in markets will continue to be inflation and taxes.President Joe Biden is expected to detail his “American Families Plan” and the tax increases to pay for it, including a much higher capital gains tax for the wealthy.The plan is the second part of his Build Back Better agenda and will include new spending proposals aimed at helping families. The president addresses a joint session of Congress Wednesday evening.It’s a huge week for earnings with about a third of the S&P 500 reporting, including Big Tech names, such as Apple,Microsoft,Alphabet and Amazon.As many have already done, firms like Boeing, Ford,Caterpillar and McDonald’s, are likely to detail cost pressures they are facing from rising materials and transportation costs and supply chain disruptions.At the same time, the Fed is expected to defend its policy of letting inflation run hot, while assuring markets it sees the pick-up in prices as only temporary. The central bank meets on Tuesday and Wednesday.The central bank takes the main stage“I think the Fed would like not to be a feature next week, but the Fed will be forced from the background because of concerns about inflation,” said Diane Swonk, chief economist at Grant Thornton.The central bank is not expected to make any policy moves, but Fed Chairman Jerome Powell’s press briefing following the meeting Wednesday will be closely watched.So far, the barrage of earnings news has been positive, with 86% of companies reporting earnings beats. Corporate profits are expected to be up about 33.9% for the first quarter, based on estimates and actual reports, according to Refinitiv. Revenues are about 9.9% higher.There is important inflation data Friday when the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge is reported.The personal consumption expenditure report is expected to show a 1.8% rise in core inflation, still below the Fed’s target of 2%. Other data releases include the first-quarter gross domestic product on Thursday, which is expected to have grown by 6.5%, according to Dow Jones.“I think the Fed has no urgency to shift monetary policy at this point,” said Ian Lyngen, head of U.S. rates strategy at BMO. “The Fed needs to acknowledge that the data is improving. We had a strong first quarter.”“The Fed needs to acknowledge that but at the same time they’re keeping extremely accommodative policy in place, so they’ll have to make a note to the fact that the easy policy is warranted,” he said.Lyngen said the Fed will likely point to continued concerns about the pandemic globally as a potential risk to the economic recovery.Powell is also expected to once more explain that the Fed will let inflation rise above its 2% target for a period of time before it raises rates so that the economy can have more time to heal. “It’s going to be a challenge for the Fed,” said Swonk.The base effects for the next several months will make inflation appear to have jumped sharply because of the comparison to a weak period last year. The consumer price index for April could be above 3%, compared to 2.6% last month, Swonk added.“The Fed is trying to let a lot more people get out onto the dance floor before it calls ‘last call,’” she said. “Really what Powell has been saying since day one is if we take care of people on the margins and bring them back into the labor force, the rest will take care of itself.”Stocks were slightly lower in the past week, and Treasury yields held at lower levels. The 10-year yield,which moves opposite price, was at 1.55% Friday.The S&P 500was down 0.1%, ending the week at 4,180, while Nasdaq Composite was down nearly 0.3% at 14,016. The Dow was off just shy of 0.5% at 34,043.Tax hike prospectsStocks were hit hard on Thursday when after a news report said that Biden is expected to propose a capital gains tax rate of 39.6% for people earning more than $1 million a year.Combined with the 3.8% net investment income tax, the new levy would more than double the long term capital gains rate of 20% or the richest Americans.Strategists said Biden is expected to propose raising the income tax rate for those earning more than $400,000.“I think a lot of people are starting to price in the risk there going to be a significant increase in both corporate and capital gains taxes,” said Lyngen.So far, companies have not provided much in the way of commentary on the proposed hike in corporate taxes to 28% from 21% but they have been talking about other costs.David Bianco, chief investment strategist for the Americas at DWS, said he expects larger companies will do better dealing with supply chain constraints than smaller ones. Big Tech is also likely to fare better during the semiconductor shortage than auto makers, which have already announced production shutdowns, he said.“Next week is tech week. I think we’re going to get down on our knees and just be in awe of their business models and their ability to grow at a behemoth scale,” Bianco said.He said he’s not in favor of Wall Street’s popular trade into cyclicals and out of growth. He still favors growth.“We’re overweight equities really because we’re concerned about rising interest rates,” Bianco said. “I’m not bullish in that I expect the market to rise that much from here.”“We stuck with growth and dug deeper into bond substitutes, utilities, staples, real estate,” he said, adding he is underweight industrials, energy and materials. “Energy is doomed. It’s being nationalized via regulation. I do like industrials, they are well-run companies, but I do think infrastructure spending expectations for classic infrastructure are too high.”He also said industrials are good businesses, but the stocks have become overvalued.Bianco said he likes big box stores, but smaller retailers are facing big challenges that were already impacting them prior to Covid. He also finds small biotech firms attractive.“I like healthcare stocks. Those valuations are reasonable. People have been paranoid about politicians beating on them since 1992. They manage through it and lately they’ve been delivering,” he said.Week ahead calendarMondayEarnings:Tesla,Canadian National Railway, Canon,Check Point Software,Otis Worldwide, Vale,Ameriprise,NXP Semiconductor,Albertsons, Royal Phillips8:30 a.m. Durable goodsTuesdayFOMC begins two day meetingEarnings:Microsoft,Alphabet,Visa,Amgen,Advanced Micro Devices,3M,General Electric,Eli Lilly, Hasbro,United Parcel Service,BP,Novartis,JetBlue,Pultegroup,Archer Daniels Midland,Waste Management,Starbucks,Texas Instrument,Chubb,Mondelez,FireEye,Corning,Raytheon9:00 a.m. S&P/Case-Shiller9:00 a.m. FHFA home prices10:00 a.m. Consumer confidence10:00 a.m. Housing vacanciesWednesdayEarnings:Apple, Boeing,Facebook,Qualcomm,Ford,MGM Resorts,Humana,Norfolk Southern,General Dynamics,Boston Scientific, eBay, Samsung Electronics, GlaxoSmithKline,Yum Brands, SiriusXM, Aflac,Cheesecake Factory,Community Health System,CIT Group,Entergy,CME Group,Hess,Ryder System8:30 a.m. Advance economic indicators2:00 p.m. Fed statement2:30 p.m. Fed Chairman Jerome Powell briefingThursdayEarnings:Amazon,Caterpillar,McDonald’s,Twitter,Bristol-Myers Squibb,Comcast,Merck,Northrop Grumman, Airbus,Kraft Heinz,Intercontinental Exchange,Mastercard,Gilead Sciences,U.S. Steel, Cirrus Logic,Texas Roadhouse, Cabot Oil, PG&E,Royal Dutch Shell,Church & Dwight, Carlyle Group,Southern Co.8:30 a.m. Initial jobless claims8:30 a.m. Real GDP Q110:00 a.m. Pending home salesFridayEarnings:ExxonMobil,Chevron,Colgate-Palmolive,AstraZeneca,Clorox,Barclays, AbbVie, BNP Paribas,Weyerhaeuser,Illinois Tool Works, CBOE Global Markets, Lazard,Newell Brands,Aon,LyondellBasell,Pitney Bowes,Phillips 66,Charter Communications8:30 a.m. Personal income and spending8:30 a.m. Employment cost index Q19:45 a.m. Chicago PMI10:00 a.m. Consumer sentimentSaturdayEarnings:Berkshire Hathaway","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":210,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":375521124,"gmtCreate":1619364997868,"gmtModify":1634273998932,"author":{"id":"3582416963767497","authorId":"3582416963767497","name":"AlexMachinic","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0070651b1b40a66246df888d1fcda127","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3582416963767497","authorIdStr":"3582416963767497"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Great","listText":"Great","text":"Great","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/375521124","repostId":"1187199650","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":461,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":375521027,"gmtCreate":1619364970669,"gmtModify":1634273999293,"author":{"id":"3582416963767497","authorId":"3582416963767497","name":"AlexMachinic","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0070651b1b40a66246df888d1fcda127","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3582416963767497","authorIdStr":"3582416963767497"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Like 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pls","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/375523318","repostId":"1159622467","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":216,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":375529841,"gmtCreate":1619364725983,"gmtModify":1634274000095,"author":{"id":"3582416963767497","authorId":"3582416963767497","name":"AlexMachinic","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0070651b1b40a66246df888d1fcda127","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3582416963767497","authorIdStr":"3582416963767497"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Like and comment","listText":"Like and comment","text":"Like and comment","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/375529841","repostId":"1184404050","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1184404050","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1619319329,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1184404050?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-04-25 10:55","market":"us","language":"en","title":"What to watch in the markets this week","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1184404050","media":"CNBC","summary":"The last week of April will be extremely busy for markets with a third of the S&P 500 reporting earnings, a Federal Reserve meeting, and new spending and tax proposals from the White House.Big Tech is a highlight of the earnings calendar, with Apple, Microsoft, Amazon, Facebook and Alphabet all releasing results.The Fed is not expected to take any action, but economists expect it to defend its policy to let inflation run hot.There is some key data including first-quarter gross domestic product a","content":"<div>\n<p>KEY POINTSThe last week of April will be extremely busy for markets with a third of the S&P 500 reporting earnings, a Federal Reserve meeting, and new spending and tax proposals from the White House....</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.cnbc.com/2021/04/23/taxes-and-inflation-will-be-key-themes-for-markets-in-the-week-ahead.html\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n","source":"cnbc_highlight","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>What to watch in the markets this week</title>\n<style 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margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWhat to watch in the markets this week\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-04-25 10:55 GMT+8 <a href=https://www.cnbc.com/2021/04/23/taxes-and-inflation-will-be-key-themes-for-markets-in-the-week-ahead.html><strong>CNBC</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>KEY POINTSThe last week of April will be extremely busy for markets with a third of the S&P 500 reporting earnings, a Federal Reserve meeting, and new spending and tax proposals from the White House....</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.cnbc.com/2021/04/23/taxes-and-inflation-will-be-key-themes-for-markets-in-the-week-ahead.html\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"GOOGL":"谷歌A",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","AAPL":"苹果",".DJI":"道琼斯","GOOG":"谷歌","TSLA":"特斯拉","AMZN":"亚马逊",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"source_url":"https://www.cnbc.com/2021/04/23/taxes-and-inflation-will-be-key-themes-for-markets-in-the-week-ahead.html","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/72bb72e1b84c09fca865c6dcb1bbcd16","article_id":"1184404050","content_text":"KEY POINTSThe last week of April will be extremely busy for markets with a third of the S&P 500 reporting earnings, a Federal Reserve meeting, and new spending and tax proposals from the White House.Big Tech is a highlight of the earnings calendar, with Apple, Microsoft, Amazon, Facebook and Alphabet all releasing results.The Fed is not expected to take any action, but economists expect it to defend its policy to let inflation run hot.There is some key data including first-quarter gross domestic product and the Fed’s favorite inflation measure: the personal consumption expenditures deflator.The final week of April is going to be a busy one for markets with a Federal Reserve meeting and a deluge of earnings news.Hot topics in markets will continue to be inflation and taxes.President Joe Biden is expected to detail his “American Families Plan” and the tax increases to pay for it, including a much higher capital gains tax for the wealthy.The plan is the second part of his Build Back Better agenda and will include new spending proposals aimed at helping families. The president addresses a joint session of Congress Wednesday evening.It’s a huge week for earnings with about a third of the S&P 500 reporting, including Big Tech names, such as Apple,Microsoft,Alphabet and Amazon.As many have already done, firms like Boeing, Ford,Caterpillar and McDonald’s, are likely to detail cost pressures they are facing from rising materials and transportation costs and supply chain disruptions.At the same time, the Fed is expected to defend its policy of letting inflation run hot, while assuring markets it sees the pick-up in prices as only temporary. The central bank meets on Tuesday and Wednesday.The central bank takes the main stage“I think the Fed would like not to be a feature next week, but the Fed will be forced from the background because of concerns about inflation,” said Diane Swonk, chief economist at Grant Thornton.The central bank is not expected to make any policy moves, but Fed Chairman Jerome Powell’s press briefing following the meeting Wednesday will be closely watched.So far, the barrage of earnings news has been positive, with 86% of companies reporting earnings beats. Corporate profits are expected to be up about 33.9% for the first quarter, based on estimates and actual reports, according to Refinitiv. Revenues are about 9.9% higher.There is important inflation data Friday when the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge is reported.The personal consumption expenditure report is expected to show a 1.8% rise in core inflation, still below the Fed’s target of 2%. Other data releases include the first-quarter gross domestic product on Thursday, which is expected to have grown by 6.5%, according to Dow Jones.“I think the Fed has no urgency to shift monetary policy at this point,” said Ian Lyngen, head of U.S. rates strategy at BMO. “The Fed needs to acknowledge that the data is improving. We had a strong first quarter.”“The Fed needs to acknowledge that but at the same time they’re keeping extremely accommodative policy in place, so they’ll have to make a note to the fact that the easy policy is warranted,” he said.Lyngen said the Fed will likely point to continued concerns about the pandemic globally as a potential risk to the economic recovery.Powell is also expected to once more explain that the Fed will let inflation rise above its 2% target for a period of time before it raises rates so that the economy can have more time to heal. “It’s going to be a challenge for the Fed,” said Swonk.The base effects for the next several months will make inflation appear to have jumped sharply because of the comparison to a weak period last year. The consumer price index for April could be above 3%, compared to 2.6% last month, Swonk added.“The Fed is trying to let a lot more people get out onto the dance floor before it calls ‘last call,’” she said. “Really what Powell has been saying since day one is if we take care of people on the margins and bring them back into the labor force, the rest will take care of itself.”Stocks were slightly lower in the past week, and Treasury yields held at lower levels. The 10-year yield,which moves opposite price, was at 1.55% Friday.The S&P 500was down 0.1%, ending the week at 4,180, while Nasdaq Composite was down nearly 0.3% at 14,016. The Dow was off just shy of 0.5% at 34,043.Tax hike prospectsStocks were hit hard on Thursday when after a news report said that Biden is expected to propose a capital gains tax rate of 39.6% for people earning more than $1 million a year.Combined with the 3.8% net investment income tax, the new levy would more than double the long term capital gains rate of 20% or the richest Americans.Strategists said Biden is expected to propose raising the income tax rate for those earning more than $400,000.“I think a lot of people are starting to price in the risk there going to be a significant increase in both corporate and capital gains taxes,” said Lyngen.So far, companies have not provided much in the way of commentary on the proposed hike in corporate taxes to 28% from 21% but they have been talking about other costs.David Bianco, chief investment strategist for the Americas at DWS, said he expects larger companies will do better dealing with supply chain constraints than smaller ones. Big Tech is also likely to fare better during the semiconductor shortage than auto makers, which have already announced production shutdowns, he said.“Next week is tech week. I think we’re going to get down on our knees and just be in awe of their business models and their ability to grow at a behemoth scale,” Bianco said.He said he’s not in favor of Wall Street’s popular trade into cyclicals and out of growth. He still favors growth.“We’re overweight equities really because we’re concerned about rising interest rates,” Bianco said. “I’m not bullish in that I expect the market to rise that much from here.”“We stuck with growth and dug deeper into bond substitutes, utilities, staples, real estate,” he said, adding he is underweight industrials, energy and materials. “Energy is doomed. It’s being nationalized via regulation. I do like industrials, they are well-run companies, but I do think infrastructure spending expectations for classic infrastructure are too high.”He also said industrials are good businesses, but the stocks have become overvalued.Bianco said he likes big box stores, but smaller retailers are facing big challenges that were already impacting them prior to Covid. He also finds small biotech firms attractive.“I like healthcare stocks. Those valuations are reasonable. People have been paranoid about politicians beating on them since 1992. They manage through it and lately they’ve been delivering,” he said.Week ahead calendarMondayEarnings:Tesla,Canadian National Railway, Canon,Check Point Software,Otis Worldwide, Vale,Ameriprise,NXP Semiconductor,Albertsons, Royal Phillips8:30 a.m. Durable goodsTuesdayFOMC begins two day meetingEarnings:Microsoft,Alphabet,Visa,Amgen,Advanced Micro Devices,3M,General Electric,Eli Lilly, Hasbro,United Parcel Service,BP,Novartis,JetBlue,Pultegroup,Archer Daniels Midland,Waste Management,Starbucks,Texas Instrument,Chubb,Mondelez,FireEye,Corning,Raytheon9:00 a.m. S&P/Case-Shiller9:00 a.m. FHFA home prices10:00 a.m. Consumer confidence10:00 a.m. Housing vacanciesWednesdayEarnings:Apple, Boeing,Facebook,Qualcomm,Ford,MGM Resorts,Humana,Norfolk Southern,General Dynamics,Boston Scientific, eBay, Samsung Electronics, GlaxoSmithKline,Yum Brands, SiriusXM, Aflac,Cheesecake Factory,Community Health System,CIT Group,Entergy,CME Group,Hess,Ryder System8:30 a.m. Advance economic indicators2:00 p.m. Fed statement2:30 p.m. Fed Chairman Jerome Powell briefingThursdayEarnings:Amazon,Caterpillar,McDonald’s,Twitter,Bristol-Myers Squibb,Comcast,Merck,Northrop Grumman, Airbus,Kraft Heinz,Intercontinental Exchange,Mastercard,Gilead Sciences,U.S. Steel, Cirrus Logic,Texas Roadhouse, Cabot Oil, PG&E,Royal Dutch Shell,Church & Dwight, Carlyle Group,Southern Co.8:30 a.m. Initial jobless claims8:30 a.m. Real GDP Q110:00 a.m. Pending home salesFridayEarnings:ExxonMobil,Chevron,Colgate-Palmolive,AstraZeneca,Clorox,Barclays, AbbVie, BNP Paribas,Weyerhaeuser,Illinois Tool Works, CBOE Global Markets, Lazard,Newell Brands,Aon,LyondellBasell,Pitney Bowes,Phillips 66,Charter Communications8:30 a.m. Personal income and spending8:30 a.m. Employment cost index Q19:45 a.m. Chicago PMI10:00 a.m. Consumer sentimentSaturdayEarnings:Berkshire Hathaway","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":338,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":375567608,"gmtCreate":1619364300804,"gmtModify":1634274001735,"author":{"id":"3582416963767497","authorId":"3582416963767497","name":"AlexMachinic","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0070651b1b40a66246df888d1fcda127","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3582416963767497","authorIdStr":"3582416963767497"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Like and comment","listText":"Like and comment","text":"Like and comment","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/375567608","repostId":"2129636842","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":177,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":100412403,"gmtCreate":1619628946202,"gmtModify":1634211193664,"author":{"id":"3582416963767497","authorId":"3582416963767497","name":"AlexMachinic","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0070651b1b40a66246df888d1fcda127","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3582416963767497","authorIdStr":"3582416963767497"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Noted","listText":"Noted","text":"Noted","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/100412403","repostId":"1179396069","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1179396069","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1619573853,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1179396069?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-04-28 09:37","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Apple Could Blow the Top Off Earnings—Again. What That Would Mean for the Stock.","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1179396069","media":"Barrons","summary":"Apple has its work cut out for it trying to surpass 2020’s blowout results. The thing is, the tech g","content":"<p>Apple has its work cut out for it trying to surpass 2020’s blowout results. The thing is, the tech giant just might be able to pull it off.</p>\n<p>The buzz around Apple last year was off the charts, even for what is the buzziest of technology companies. Anticipation of the fall launch of the company’s first 5G phones, surging demand for both Macs and iPads as the pandemic rolled on, and strength in both wearables and services fed off each other. The pieces all came together in the December quarter, when Apple (ticker: AAPL) posted its biggest quarter ever. Sales soared 21% to $111.4 billion, more than $8 billion over the Street consensus. Every product category—iPhone, iPad, Macs, wearables, and services—notched double-digit growth. Apple stock finished the year up 81%, adding nearly $1 trillion to its market cap.</p>\n<p>That’s a tough act to follow, particularly with the March quarter, which always slows from the holiday-boosted December quarter. But Apple could pull off the quintuple double again when its results come out after the bell Wednesday. The Street certainly thinks so, even if the market, which has pushed Apple shares up less than 2% in 2021, has been more cautious. Consensus estimates call for double-digit increases from last year across the board: iPhones sales up 43%, to $41.4 billion; iPad sales up 29%, to $5.6 billion; Mac sales of $6.8 billion, up 27%; wearables sales (mostly Apple Watch and AirPods) of $7.4 billion, up 18%; and a 16% bump in services, to $15.5 billion.</p>\n<p>Overall, the Street consensus expects sales of $77 billion, up 32% from a year ago, with profits of 98 cents a share. That would be the fastest top-line growth rate for any Apple quarter since March 2012, when revenues were about half what they are now. And most bullish Apple analysts seem to think their own estimates are too low—a print at $77 billion would likely trigger a selloff in the stock.</p>\n<p>Apple is also expected to provide an update on its capital-allocation strategy. A year ago,the company announced a 6% dividend increase, and boosted its stock repurchase plan by $50 billion. Apple has said repeatedly that it is pushing to get to a cash neutral position, but its remarkably big cash flow has slowed progress toward that goal.</p>\n<p>As always, the quarter is about more than just earnings.</p>\n<p>For one, the Street will be looking for signs that the sales surge for Macs and iPads is sustainable—and that the company is keeping up with demand despite widespread chip and display shortages. Some investors worry that the spike in PC demand could ebb as more people return to schools and offices. They’ll be looking for company guidance on that point.</p>\n<p>Another is the sustainability of the resurgence in iPhone growth. There were high hopes among bulls that the iPhone 12 would drive a “supercycle” with an accelerated replacement cycle. Several analysts have noted that a clear consumer preference for the high end of the iPhone 12 line is driving up average selling prices, which should support a strong revenue quarter for the segment.</p>\n<p>“Given the later-than-seasonal launch of new iPhones in the fall of 2020, we believe iPhone demand will experience more favorable year-over-year comparisons this March quarter compared to past years,” writes Monness Crespi Hardt’s Brian White, who sees 47% iPhone revenue growth during the quarter.</p>\n<p>And if Apple pulls it all together? Apple could crush Street estimates, writes Morgan Stanley analyst Katy Huberty, who has an Overweight rating and a $158 price target on the stock, up 17% from Monday’s close of $134.72. She sees the top line above $80 billion, with all segments growing at least 19% year over year. She is especially bullish on Mac and iPad sales, with estimates far above consensus—53% for Macs and 52% for iPads. She also expects Apple to increase its dividend by 10% and expand its stock repurchase program by $60 billion.</p>\n<p>That would certainly qualify as a job well done.</p>","source":"lsy1601382232898","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Apple Could Blow the Top Off Earnings—Again. What That Would Mean for the Stock.</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nApple Could Blow the Top Off Earnings—Again. What That Would Mean for the Stock.\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-04-28 09:37 GMT+8 <a href=https://www.barrons.com/articles/apple-could-blow-the-top-off-earningsagain-what-that-would-mean-for-the-stock-51619495288?mod=hp_DAY_Theme_1_2><strong>Barrons</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Apple has its work cut out for it trying to surpass 2020’s blowout results. The thing is, the tech giant just might be able to pull it off.\nThe buzz around Apple last year was off the charts, even for...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.barrons.com/articles/apple-could-blow-the-top-off-earningsagain-what-that-would-mean-for-the-stock-51619495288?mod=hp_DAY_Theme_1_2\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AAPL":"苹果"},"source_url":"https://www.barrons.com/articles/apple-could-blow-the-top-off-earningsagain-what-that-would-mean-for-the-stock-51619495288?mod=hp_DAY_Theme_1_2","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1179396069","content_text":"Apple has its work cut out for it trying to surpass 2020’s blowout results. The thing is, the tech giant just might be able to pull it off.\nThe buzz around Apple last year was off the charts, even for what is the buzziest of technology companies. Anticipation of the fall launch of the company’s first 5G phones, surging demand for both Macs and iPads as the pandemic rolled on, and strength in both wearables and services fed off each other. The pieces all came together in the December quarter, when Apple (ticker: AAPL) posted its biggest quarter ever. Sales soared 21% to $111.4 billion, more than $8 billion over the Street consensus. Every product category—iPhone, iPad, Macs, wearables, and services—notched double-digit growth. Apple stock finished the year up 81%, adding nearly $1 trillion to its market cap.\nThat’s a tough act to follow, particularly with the March quarter, which always slows from the holiday-boosted December quarter. But Apple could pull off the quintuple double again when its results come out after the bell Wednesday. The Street certainly thinks so, even if the market, which has pushed Apple shares up less than 2% in 2021, has been more cautious. Consensus estimates call for double-digit increases from last year across the board: iPhones sales up 43%, to $41.4 billion; iPad sales up 29%, to $5.6 billion; Mac sales of $6.8 billion, up 27%; wearables sales (mostly Apple Watch and AirPods) of $7.4 billion, up 18%; and a 16% bump in services, to $15.5 billion.\nOverall, the Street consensus expects sales of $77 billion, up 32% from a year ago, with profits of 98 cents a share. That would be the fastest top-line growth rate for any Apple quarter since March 2012, when revenues were about half what they are now. And most bullish Apple analysts seem to think their own estimates are too low—a print at $77 billion would likely trigger a selloff in the stock.\nApple is also expected to provide an update on its capital-allocation strategy. A year ago,the company announced a 6% dividend increase, and boosted its stock repurchase plan by $50 billion. Apple has said repeatedly that it is pushing to get to a cash neutral position, but its remarkably big cash flow has slowed progress toward that goal.\nAs always, the quarter is about more than just earnings.\nFor one, the Street will be looking for signs that the sales surge for Macs and iPads is sustainable—and that the company is keeping up with demand despite widespread chip and display shortages. Some investors worry that the spike in PC demand could ebb as more people return to schools and offices. They’ll be looking for company guidance on that point.\nAnother is the sustainability of the resurgence in iPhone growth. There were high hopes among bulls that the iPhone 12 would drive a “supercycle” with an accelerated replacement cycle. Several analysts have noted that a clear consumer preference for the high end of the iPhone 12 line is driving up average selling prices, which should support a strong revenue quarter for the segment.\n“Given the later-than-seasonal launch of new iPhones in the fall of 2020, we believe iPhone demand will experience more favorable year-over-year comparisons this March quarter compared to past years,” writes Monness Crespi Hardt’s Brian White, who sees 47% iPhone revenue growth during the quarter.\nAnd if Apple pulls it all together? Apple could crush Street estimates, writes Morgan Stanley analyst Katy Huberty, who has an Overweight rating and a $158 price target on the stock, up 17% from Monday’s close of $134.72. She sees the top line above $80 billion, with all segments growing at least 19% year over year. She is especially bullish on Mac and iPad sales, with estimates far above consensus—53% for Macs and 52% for iPads. She also expects Apple to increase its dividend by 10% and expand its stock repurchase program by $60 billion.\nThat would certainly qualify as a job well done.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":194,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":374961904,"gmtCreate":1619409978008,"gmtModify":1634273695187,"author":{"id":"3582416963767497","authorId":"3582416963767497","name":"AlexMachinic","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0070651b1b40a66246df888d1fcda127","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3582416963767497","authorIdStr":"3582416963767497"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Great","listText":"Great","text":"Great","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/374961904","repostId":"1184404050","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1184404050","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1619319329,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1184404050?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-04-25 10:55","market":"us","language":"en","title":"What to watch in the markets this week","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1184404050","media":"CNBC","summary":"The last week of April will be extremely busy for markets with a third of the S&P 500 reporting earnings, a Federal Reserve meeting, and new spending and tax proposals from the White House.Big Tech is a highlight of the earnings calendar, with Apple, Microsoft, Amazon, Facebook and Alphabet all releasing results.The Fed is not expected to take any action, but economists expect it to defend its policy to let inflation run hot.There is some key data including first-quarter gross domestic product a","content":"<div>\n<p>KEY POINTSThe last week of April will be extremely busy for markets with a third of the S&P 500 reporting earnings, a Federal Reserve meeting, and new spending and tax proposals from the White House....</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.cnbc.com/2021/04/23/taxes-and-inflation-will-be-key-themes-for-markets-in-the-week-ahead.html\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n","source":"cnbc_highlight","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>What to watch in the markets this week</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWhat to watch in the markets this week\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-04-25 10:55 GMT+8 <a href=https://www.cnbc.com/2021/04/23/taxes-and-inflation-will-be-key-themes-for-markets-in-the-week-ahead.html><strong>CNBC</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>KEY POINTSThe last week of April will be extremely busy for markets with a third of the S&P 500 reporting earnings, a Federal Reserve meeting, and new spending and tax proposals from the White House....</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.cnbc.com/2021/04/23/taxes-and-inflation-will-be-key-themes-for-markets-in-the-week-ahead.html\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"GOOGL":"谷歌A",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","AAPL":"苹果",".DJI":"道琼斯","GOOG":"谷歌","TSLA":"特斯拉","AMZN":"亚马逊",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"source_url":"https://www.cnbc.com/2021/04/23/taxes-and-inflation-will-be-key-themes-for-markets-in-the-week-ahead.html","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/72bb72e1b84c09fca865c6dcb1bbcd16","article_id":"1184404050","content_text":"KEY POINTSThe last week of April will be extremely busy for markets with a third of the S&P 500 reporting earnings, a Federal Reserve meeting, and new spending and tax proposals from the White House.Big Tech is a highlight of the earnings calendar, with Apple, Microsoft, Amazon, Facebook and Alphabet all releasing results.The Fed is not expected to take any action, but economists expect it to defend its policy to let inflation run hot.There is some key data including first-quarter gross domestic product and the Fed’s favorite inflation measure: the personal consumption expenditures deflator.The final week of April is going to be a busy one for markets with a Federal Reserve meeting and a deluge of earnings news.Hot topics in markets will continue to be inflation and taxes.President Joe Biden is expected to detail his “American Families Plan” and the tax increases to pay for it, including a much higher capital gains tax for the wealthy.The plan is the second part of his Build Back Better agenda and will include new spending proposals aimed at helping families. The president addresses a joint session of Congress Wednesday evening.It’s a huge week for earnings with about a third of the S&P 500 reporting, including Big Tech names, such as Apple,Microsoft,Alphabet and Amazon.As many have already done, firms like Boeing, Ford,Caterpillar and McDonald’s, are likely to detail cost pressures they are facing from rising materials and transportation costs and supply chain disruptions.At the same time, the Fed is expected to defend its policy of letting inflation run hot, while assuring markets it sees the pick-up in prices as only temporary. The central bank meets on Tuesday and Wednesday.The central bank takes the main stage“I think the Fed would like not to be a feature next week, but the Fed will be forced from the background because of concerns about inflation,” said Diane Swonk, chief economist at Grant Thornton.The central bank is not expected to make any policy moves, but Fed Chairman Jerome Powell’s press briefing following the meeting Wednesday will be closely watched.So far, the barrage of earnings news has been positive, with 86% of companies reporting earnings beats. Corporate profits are expected to be up about 33.9% for the first quarter, based on estimates and actual reports, according to Refinitiv. Revenues are about 9.9% higher.There is important inflation data Friday when the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge is reported.The personal consumption expenditure report is expected to show a 1.8% rise in core inflation, still below the Fed’s target of 2%. Other data releases include the first-quarter gross domestic product on Thursday, which is expected to have grown by 6.5%, according to Dow Jones.“I think the Fed has no urgency to shift monetary policy at this point,” said Ian Lyngen, head of U.S. rates strategy at BMO. “The Fed needs to acknowledge that the data is improving. We had a strong first quarter.”“The Fed needs to acknowledge that but at the same time they’re keeping extremely accommodative policy in place, so they’ll have to make a note to the fact that the easy policy is warranted,” he said.Lyngen said the Fed will likely point to continued concerns about the pandemic globally as a potential risk to the economic recovery.Powell is also expected to once more explain that the Fed will let inflation rise above its 2% target for a period of time before it raises rates so that the economy can have more time to heal. “It’s going to be a challenge for the Fed,” said Swonk.The base effects for the next several months will make inflation appear to have jumped sharply because of the comparison to a weak period last year. The consumer price index for April could be above 3%, compared to 2.6% last month, Swonk added.“The Fed is trying to let a lot more people get out onto the dance floor before it calls ‘last call,’” she said. “Really what Powell has been saying since day one is if we take care of people on the margins and bring them back into the labor force, the rest will take care of itself.”Stocks were slightly lower in the past week, and Treasury yields held at lower levels. The 10-year yield,which moves opposite price, was at 1.55% Friday.The S&P 500was down 0.1%, ending the week at 4,180, while Nasdaq Composite was down nearly 0.3% at 14,016. The Dow was off just shy of 0.5% at 34,043.Tax hike prospectsStocks were hit hard on Thursday when after a news report said that Biden is expected to propose a capital gains tax rate of 39.6% for people earning more than $1 million a year.Combined with the 3.8% net investment income tax, the new levy would more than double the long term capital gains rate of 20% or the richest Americans.Strategists said Biden is expected to propose raising the income tax rate for those earning more than $400,000.“I think a lot of people are starting to price in the risk there going to be a significant increase in both corporate and capital gains taxes,” said Lyngen.So far, companies have not provided much in the way of commentary on the proposed hike in corporate taxes to 28% from 21% but they have been talking about other costs.David Bianco, chief investment strategist for the Americas at DWS, said he expects larger companies will do better dealing with supply chain constraints than smaller ones. Big Tech is also likely to fare better during the semiconductor shortage than auto makers, which have already announced production shutdowns, he said.“Next week is tech week. I think we’re going to get down on our knees and just be in awe of their business models and their ability to grow at a behemoth scale,” Bianco said.He said he’s not in favor of Wall Street’s popular trade into cyclicals and out of growth. He still favors growth.“We’re overweight equities really because we’re concerned about rising interest rates,” Bianco said. “I’m not bullish in that I expect the market to rise that much from here.”“We stuck with growth and dug deeper into bond substitutes, utilities, staples, real estate,” he said, adding he is underweight industrials, energy and materials. “Energy is doomed. It’s being nationalized via regulation. I do like industrials, they are well-run companies, but I do think infrastructure spending expectations for classic infrastructure are too high.”He also said industrials are good businesses, but the stocks have become overvalued.Bianco said he likes big box stores, but smaller retailers are facing big challenges that were already impacting them prior to Covid. He also finds small biotech firms attractive.“I like healthcare stocks. Those valuations are reasonable. People have been paranoid about politicians beating on them since 1992. They manage through it and lately they’ve been delivering,” he said.Week ahead calendarMondayEarnings:Tesla,Canadian National Railway, Canon,Check Point Software,Otis Worldwide, Vale,Ameriprise,NXP Semiconductor,Albertsons, Royal Phillips8:30 a.m. Durable goodsTuesdayFOMC begins two day meetingEarnings:Microsoft,Alphabet,Visa,Amgen,Advanced Micro Devices,3M,General Electric,Eli Lilly, Hasbro,United Parcel Service,BP,Novartis,JetBlue,Pultegroup,Archer Daniels Midland,Waste Management,Starbucks,Texas Instrument,Chubb,Mondelez,FireEye,Corning,Raytheon9:00 a.m. S&P/Case-Shiller9:00 a.m. FHFA home prices10:00 a.m. Consumer confidence10:00 a.m. Housing vacanciesWednesdayEarnings:Apple, Boeing,Facebook,Qualcomm,Ford,MGM Resorts,Humana,Norfolk Southern,General Dynamics,Boston Scientific, eBay, Samsung Electronics, GlaxoSmithKline,Yum Brands, SiriusXM, Aflac,Cheesecake Factory,Community Health System,CIT Group,Entergy,CME Group,Hess,Ryder System8:30 a.m. Advance economic indicators2:00 p.m. Fed statement2:30 p.m. Fed Chairman Jerome Powell briefingThursdayEarnings:Amazon,Caterpillar,McDonald’s,Twitter,Bristol-Myers Squibb,Comcast,Merck,Northrop Grumman, Airbus,Kraft Heinz,Intercontinental Exchange,Mastercard,Gilead Sciences,U.S. Steel, Cirrus Logic,Texas Roadhouse, Cabot Oil, PG&E,Royal Dutch Shell,Church & Dwight, Carlyle Group,Southern Co.8:30 a.m. Initial jobless claims8:30 a.m. Real GDP Q110:00 a.m. Pending home salesFridayEarnings:ExxonMobil,Chevron,Colgate-Palmolive,AstraZeneca,Clorox,Barclays, AbbVie, BNP Paribas,Weyerhaeuser,Illinois Tool Works, CBOE Global Markets, Lazard,Newell Brands,Aon,LyondellBasell,Pitney Bowes,Phillips 66,Charter Communications8:30 a.m. Personal income and spending8:30 a.m. Employment cost index Q19:45 a.m. Chicago PMI10:00 a.m. Consumer sentimentSaturdayEarnings:Berkshire Hathaway","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":77,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":375526166,"gmtCreate":1619365255255,"gmtModify":1634273996919,"author":{"id":"3582416963767497","authorId":"3582416963767497","name":"AlexMachinic","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0070651b1b40a66246df888d1fcda127","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3582416963767497","authorIdStr":"3582416963767497"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Ok","listText":"Ok","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/375526166","repostId":"2130364241","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":279,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":375521277,"gmtCreate":1619365029799,"gmtModify":1634273998570,"author":{"id":"3582416963767497","authorId":"3582416963767497","name":"AlexMachinic","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0070651b1b40a66246df888d1fcda127","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3582416963767497","authorIdStr":"3582416963767497"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Great news","listText":"Great news","text":"Great news","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/375521277","repostId":"1184404050","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1184404050","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1619319329,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1184404050?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-04-25 10:55","market":"us","language":"en","title":"What to watch in the markets this week","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1184404050","media":"CNBC","summary":"The last week of April will be extremely busy for markets with a third of the S&P 500 reporting earnings, a Federal Reserve meeting, and new spending and tax proposals from the White House.Big Tech is a highlight of the earnings calendar, with Apple, Microsoft, Amazon, Facebook and Alphabet all releasing results.The Fed is not expected to take any action, but economists expect it to defend its policy to let inflation run hot.There is some key data including first-quarter gross domestic product a","content":"<div>\n<p>KEY POINTSThe last week of April will be extremely busy for markets with a third of the S&P 500 reporting earnings, a Federal Reserve meeting, and new spending and tax proposals from the White House....</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.cnbc.com/2021/04/23/taxes-and-inflation-will-be-key-themes-for-markets-in-the-week-ahead.html\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n","source":"cnbc_highlight","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>What to watch in the markets this week</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; 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height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWhat to watch in the markets this week\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-04-25 10:55 GMT+8 <a href=https://www.cnbc.com/2021/04/23/taxes-and-inflation-will-be-key-themes-for-markets-in-the-week-ahead.html><strong>CNBC</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>KEY POINTSThe last week of April will be extremely busy for markets with a third of the S&P 500 reporting earnings, a Federal Reserve meeting, and new spending and tax proposals from the White House....</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.cnbc.com/2021/04/23/taxes-and-inflation-will-be-key-themes-for-markets-in-the-week-ahead.html\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"GOOGL":"谷歌A",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","AAPL":"苹果",".DJI":"道琼斯","GOOG":"谷歌","TSLA":"特斯拉","AMZN":"亚马逊",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"source_url":"https://www.cnbc.com/2021/04/23/taxes-and-inflation-will-be-key-themes-for-markets-in-the-week-ahead.html","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/72bb72e1b84c09fca865c6dcb1bbcd16","article_id":"1184404050","content_text":"KEY POINTSThe last week of April will be extremely busy for markets with a third of the S&P 500 reporting earnings, a Federal Reserve meeting, and new spending and tax proposals from the White House.Big Tech is a highlight of the earnings calendar, with Apple, Microsoft, Amazon, Facebook and Alphabet all releasing results.The Fed is not expected to take any action, but economists expect it to defend its policy to let inflation run hot.There is some key data including first-quarter gross domestic product and the Fed’s favorite inflation measure: the personal consumption expenditures deflator.The final week of April is going to be a busy one for markets with a Federal Reserve meeting and a deluge of earnings news.Hot topics in markets will continue to be inflation and taxes.President Joe Biden is expected to detail his “American Families Plan” and the tax increases to pay for it, including a much higher capital gains tax for the wealthy.The plan is the second part of his Build Back Better agenda and will include new spending proposals aimed at helping families. The president addresses a joint session of Congress Wednesday evening.It’s a huge week for earnings with about a third of the S&P 500 reporting, including Big Tech names, such as Apple,Microsoft,Alphabet and Amazon.As many have already done, firms like Boeing, Ford,Caterpillar and McDonald’s, are likely to detail cost pressures they are facing from rising materials and transportation costs and supply chain disruptions.At the same time, the Fed is expected to defend its policy of letting inflation run hot, while assuring markets it sees the pick-up in prices as only temporary. The central bank meets on Tuesday and Wednesday.The central bank takes the main stage“I think the Fed would like not to be a feature next week, but the Fed will be forced from the background because of concerns about inflation,” said Diane Swonk, chief economist at Grant Thornton.The central bank is not expected to make any policy moves, but Fed Chairman Jerome Powell’s press briefing following the meeting Wednesday will be closely watched.So far, the barrage of earnings news has been positive, with 86% of companies reporting earnings beats. Corporate profits are expected to be up about 33.9% for the first quarter, based on estimates and actual reports, according to Refinitiv. Revenues are about 9.9% higher.There is important inflation data Friday when the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge is reported.The personal consumption expenditure report is expected to show a 1.8% rise in core inflation, still below the Fed’s target of 2%. Other data releases include the first-quarter gross domestic product on Thursday, which is expected to have grown by 6.5%, according to Dow Jones.“I think the Fed has no urgency to shift monetary policy at this point,” said Ian Lyngen, head of U.S. rates strategy at BMO. “The Fed needs to acknowledge that the data is improving. We had a strong first quarter.”“The Fed needs to acknowledge that but at the same time they’re keeping extremely accommodative policy in place, so they’ll have to make a note to the fact that the easy policy is warranted,” he said.Lyngen said the Fed will likely point to continued concerns about the pandemic globally as a potential risk to the economic recovery.Powell is also expected to once more explain that the Fed will let inflation rise above its 2% target for a period of time before it raises rates so that the economy can have more time to heal. “It’s going to be a challenge for the Fed,” said Swonk.The base effects for the next several months will make inflation appear to have jumped sharply because of the comparison to a weak period last year. The consumer price index for April could be above 3%, compared to 2.6% last month, Swonk added.“The Fed is trying to let a lot more people get out onto the dance floor before it calls ‘last call,’” she said. “Really what Powell has been saying since day one is if we take care of people on the margins and bring them back into the labor force, the rest will take care of itself.”Stocks were slightly lower in the past week, and Treasury yields held at lower levels. The 10-year yield,which moves opposite price, was at 1.55% Friday.The S&P 500was down 0.1%, ending the week at 4,180, while Nasdaq Composite was down nearly 0.3% at 14,016. The Dow was off just shy of 0.5% at 34,043.Tax hike prospectsStocks were hit hard on Thursday when after a news report said that Biden is expected to propose a capital gains tax rate of 39.6% for people earning more than $1 million a year.Combined with the 3.8% net investment income tax, the new levy would more than double the long term capital gains rate of 20% or the richest Americans.Strategists said Biden is expected to propose raising the income tax rate for those earning more than $400,000.“I think a lot of people are starting to price in the risk there going to be a significant increase in both corporate and capital gains taxes,” said Lyngen.So far, companies have not provided much in the way of commentary on the proposed hike in corporate taxes to 28% from 21% but they have been talking about other costs.David Bianco, chief investment strategist for the Americas at DWS, said he expects larger companies will do better dealing with supply chain constraints than smaller ones. Big Tech is also likely to fare better during the semiconductor shortage than auto makers, which have already announced production shutdowns, he said.“Next week is tech week. I think we’re going to get down on our knees and just be in awe of their business models and their ability to grow at a behemoth scale,” Bianco said.He said he’s not in favor of Wall Street’s popular trade into cyclicals and out of growth. He still favors growth.“We’re overweight equities really because we’re concerned about rising interest rates,” Bianco said. “I’m not bullish in that I expect the market to rise that much from here.”“We stuck with growth and dug deeper into bond substitutes, utilities, staples, real estate,” he said, adding he is underweight industrials, energy and materials. “Energy is doomed. It’s being nationalized via regulation. I do like industrials, they are well-run companies, but I do think infrastructure spending expectations for classic infrastructure are too high.”He also said industrials are good businesses, but the stocks have become overvalued.Bianco said he likes big box stores, but smaller retailers are facing big challenges that were already impacting them prior to Covid. He also finds small biotech firms attractive.“I like healthcare stocks. Those valuations are reasonable. People have been paranoid about politicians beating on them since 1992. They manage through it and lately they’ve been delivering,” he said.Week ahead calendarMondayEarnings:Tesla,Canadian National Railway, Canon,Check Point Software,Otis Worldwide, Vale,Ameriprise,NXP Semiconductor,Albertsons, Royal Phillips8:30 a.m. Durable goodsTuesdayFOMC begins two day meetingEarnings:Microsoft,Alphabet,Visa,Amgen,Advanced Micro Devices,3M,General Electric,Eli Lilly, Hasbro,United Parcel Service,BP,Novartis,JetBlue,Pultegroup,Archer Daniels Midland,Waste Management,Starbucks,Texas Instrument,Chubb,Mondelez,FireEye,Corning,Raytheon9:00 a.m. S&P/Case-Shiller9:00 a.m. FHFA home prices10:00 a.m. Consumer confidence10:00 a.m. Housing vacanciesWednesdayEarnings:Apple, Boeing,Facebook,Qualcomm,Ford,MGM Resorts,Humana,Norfolk Southern,General Dynamics,Boston Scientific, eBay, Samsung Electronics, GlaxoSmithKline,Yum Brands, SiriusXM, Aflac,Cheesecake Factory,Community Health System,CIT Group,Entergy,CME Group,Hess,Ryder System8:30 a.m. Advance economic indicators2:00 p.m. Fed statement2:30 p.m. Fed Chairman Jerome Powell briefingThursdayEarnings:Amazon,Caterpillar,McDonald’s,Twitter,Bristol-Myers Squibb,Comcast,Merck,Northrop Grumman, Airbus,Kraft Heinz,Intercontinental Exchange,Mastercard,Gilead Sciences,U.S. Steel, Cirrus Logic,Texas Roadhouse, Cabot Oil, PG&E,Royal Dutch Shell,Church & Dwight, Carlyle Group,Southern Co.8:30 a.m. Initial jobless claims8:30 a.m. Real GDP Q110:00 a.m. Pending home salesFridayEarnings:ExxonMobil,Chevron,Colgate-Palmolive,AstraZeneca,Clorox,Barclays, AbbVie, BNP Paribas,Weyerhaeuser,Illinois Tool Works, CBOE Global Markets, Lazard,Newell Brands,Aon,LyondellBasell,Pitney Bowes,Phillips 66,Charter Communications8:30 a.m. Personal income and spending8:30 a.m. Employment cost index Q19:45 a.m. Chicago PMI10:00 a.m. Consumer sentimentSaturdayEarnings:Berkshire Hathaway","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":210,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":375521124,"gmtCreate":1619364997868,"gmtModify":1634273998932,"author":{"id":"3582416963767497","authorId":"3582416963767497","name":"AlexMachinic","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0070651b1b40a66246df888d1fcda127","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3582416963767497","authorIdStr":"3582416963767497"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Great","listText":"Great","text":"Great","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/375521124","repostId":"1187199650","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1187199650","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1619335468,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1187199650?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-04-25 15:24","market":"us","language":"en","title":"7 Stocks That Will Benefit From Pent-Up Demand","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1187199650","media":"InvestorPlace","summary":"These companies should benefit as businesses reopen, making these excellent stocks to buy\nRecent eco","content":"<p>These companies should benefit as businesses reopen, making these excellent stocks to buy</p>\n<p>Recent economic data shows that the U.S. economy is recovering at a faster pace than expected from the Covid-19 pandemic. As vaccinations accelerate and government stimulus measures support consumers and businesses, the economy is expected to surge once pent-up demand is unwound, and along with it, an array of new stocks to buy.</p>\n<p>In this year’s second half, industries that were hardest hit by the pandemic are expected to come roaring back. Vacation resorts, movie theatres, restaurants and airlines are each forecast to run hot in 2021 and beyond as people get out of the house and spend again on leisure and entertainment.</p>\n<p>In this article, we look at seven stocks that will benefit from pent-up demand.</p>\n<ul>\n <li><b>MGM Resorts</b>(NYSE:<b><u>MGM</u></b>)</li>\n <li><b>Live Nation Entertainment</b>(NYSE:<b><u>LYV</u></b>)</li>\n <li><b>AMC Theatres</b>(NYSE:<b><u>AMC</u></b>)</li>\n <li><b>The Walt Disney Company</b>(NYSE:<b><u>DIS</u></b>)</li>\n <li><b>Carnival</b>(NYSE:<b><u>CCL</u></b>)</li>\n <li><b>Simon Property Group</b>(NYSE:<b><u>SPG</u></b>)</li>\n <li><b>Southwest Airlines</b>(NYSE:<b><u>LUV</u></b>)</li>\n</ul>\n<p><b>MGM Resorts (MGM)</b></p>\n<p>Americans love gambling. Consider that more than $4 billion was wagered on the Super Bowl this past February and you get an idea of how big an industry gambling is in the U.S. And, as people again return to the gambling and entertainment meccas of Las Vegas and Atlantic City, it should benefit MGM Resorts, one of the leading casino and resort companies in the world with operations as far away as Macau, China.</p>\n<p>MGM used the pandemic as an opportunity to reposition and re-brand itself, moving away from gaming in casinos and vacation resort properties and focusing more on sports betting. That shift should help MGM by lessening its reliance on foot traffic at its casinos and as sports at both the collegiate and professional levels return with a vengeance this year.</p>\n<p>MGM stock has been one of the stronger reopening plays this year. Since January, the share price is up a cool 30% at just over $40.</p>\n<p><b>Live Nation Entertainment (LYV)</b></p>\n<p>Live music is a huge business. In 2019, before Covid-19 shut things down, the live music industry generated global revenues (subscription required) of nearly $30 billion. Last year, revenues were a third of that level at just $10 billion worldwide, according to market research firm<i>Statista</i>. This year, live music revenues are expected to be double the 2020 level at $20 billion and are forecast to reach $31 billion by 2024. All of this is great news for Live Nation Entertainment, the Beverly Hills, California-based company that promotes, operates and manages ticket sales for music concerts and other live entertainment events all over the world.</p>\n<p>To be sure, Live Nation had a rough go of it in 2020 as its revenue fell 84% from pre-pandemic levels. The company compensated by implementing $950 million of cost reductions. It also remains bullish on its prospects for this year, noting that 83% of customers with tickets to cancelled shows have opted to hold on to their seats until the events are rescheduled. Only 17% of ticket holders asked for their money back.</p>\n<p>Investors have responded positively to Live Nation’s cost cutting and outlook, pushing LYV stock up 11% year-to-date at $81.82 a share.</p>\n<p><b>AMC Theatres (AMC)</b></p>\n<p>AMC stock has been knocked around a lot this year, pushed up and down by the Reddit trading crowd that apparently finds it amusing to pump-and-dump shares of America’s largest movie theatre chain. Add in a narrowly averted bankruptcy filing and a recent analyst report that put a price target on AMC shares of $0.01, and it’s clear that it has been a challenging time for the Leawood, Kansas-based company that has been credited with popularizing the modern movie-going experience.</p>\n<p>However, despite all the drama, there is reason to be hopeful when it comes to AMC Theatres and the box office. While there have not been many blockbuster movies released in theatres in recent months, the opening of the film“Godzilla vs. Kong”at the start of April gave reason to cheer. The Warner Bros. movie had the best opening weekend for a movie since the Covid-19 pandemic shutdown theatres, raking in $32.2 million in domestic ticket receipts. Worldwide, Godzilla vs. Kong earned $285.4 million during its five-day opening weekend (Wednesday to Sunday).</p>\n<p>AMC stock has been whipsawed this year, but has been holding steady around $9.50 a share since the end of March.</p>\n<p><b>The Walt Disney Company (DIS)</b></p>\n<p>The Walt Disney Company has largely been propped up during the pandemic by the growing strength of its streaming service, Disney+. That the company launched its streaming platform less than six months before the Covid-19 pandemic forced the shut down of the company’s theme parks, cruise lines and resorts all over the world seems now like brilliant planning on the part of the Mouse House. Disney+ has, after all, added more than 100 million subscribers since it first launched in the autumn of 2019.</p>\n<p>However, Disney+ remains only one part of the company’s business, albeit a growing part. And now that Covid-19 is in retreat around the world, Disney will reopen its theme parks and attractions this spring and summer that were almost entirely closed throughout last year.</p>\n<p>There’s also the popular Disney cruise line business to restart and new film and television production that will provide new content to Disney’s popular library, adding to properties such as Star Wars, Marvel, Pixar animation and more. All told, Disney should have a very big year in 2021.</p>\n<p>DIS stock has pulled back a bit in recent weeks at $183.15 a share, but it has been taking runs at breaking above $200 a share since mid-February.</p>\n<p><b>Carnival (CCL)</b></p>\n<p>Carnival Cruise Lines is ready to come out of dry dock and take to the seas again. This explains why the Miami, Florida-based company, the world’s largest cruise operator, is lobbying the Center for Disease Control to try and get its cruise ships sailing again.</p>\n<p>At stake is a share of the $16 billion in revenue that is expected to be generated by the cruise line industry this year. How soon Carnival is able to resume operations to destinations such as the Bahamas and Bermuda remains to be seen. But the pent-up demand should put wind in the sails of the company and CCL stock.</p>\n<p>Since the end of January, CCL stock has risen 26% to $27.34 a share. More gains are forecast as the company’s operations and revenues return in earnest later this year. The share price has pulled back from near $30 since the start of April as the company’s immediate prospects remain cloudy. But a bullish case can be made for Carnival as Covid-19 vaccines accelerate and the economy reopens. The medianprice targeton the company’s stock is right around $30 a share, suggesting a small upside from current levels. The high price on the stock is $41 per share.</p>\n<p><b>Simon Property Group (SPG)</b></p>\n<p>The shopping mall isn’t dead. Not yet anyway. While we’ve all increased our online shopping over the past year, people are itching to get out of their houses and go back to their favorite stores. Beyond that though, shopping malls are not just places where people go to shop. They are also where people meet to socialize with friends and families, grab a bite to eat and maybe see a movie. And this all bodes well for Simon Property, the largest shopping mall operator in the United States.</p>\n<p>With the economy in full recovery mode and a new round of $1,400 stimulus checks landing in consumers’ bank accounts, retail stores and shopping malls are sure to benefit. The National Retail Federation forecasts that retail sales will grow nearly 10% this year to more than $4.30 trillion as consumer spending rebounds strongly from its pandemic lows.</p>\n<p>This optimistic forecast is reflected in SPG stock, which is up 36% year-to-date at $114.17 a share.</p>\n<p><b>Southwest Airlines (LUV)</b></p>\n<p>How will everyone get to their vacation destinations and travel to see friends and family in the coming months when the country reopens? Southwest Airlines, that’s how. The top U.S. airline for leisure travel is guaranteed to benefit from the reopening of the economy and pent-up travel demand. Already, air travel is moving higher with the Transportation Security Administration (TSA) reporting daily screenings of more than 1.5 million passengers, the most since before the pandemic.</p>\n<p>Southwest Airlines, which is the largest low-cost airline in the world, carries more domestic passengers than any airline based in the U.S. The carrier also flies to popular sun destinations in the Caribbean and Mexico, and aggressively markets its low fares and travel locations to the public.</p>\n<p>LUV stock has been a clear winner this year, with its share price up 32% year-to-date as investors increasingly buy into the reopening story and bet on revenge travel.</p>","source":"lsy1606302653667","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>7 Stocks That Will Benefit From Pent-Up Demand</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n7 Stocks That Will Benefit From Pent-Up Demand\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-04-25 15:24 GMT+8 <a href=https://investorplace.com/2021/04/7-stocks-to-buy-that-will-benefit-from-pent-up-demand/><strong>InvestorPlace</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>These companies should benefit as businesses reopen, making these excellent stocks to buy\nRecent economic data shows that the U.S. economy is recovering at a faster pace than expected from the Covid-...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://investorplace.com/2021/04/7-stocks-to-buy-that-will-benefit-from-pent-up-demand/\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"MGM":"美高梅","LUV":"西南航空","SPG":"西蒙地产","CCL":"嘉年华邮轮","DIS":"迪士尼","AMC":"AMC院线","LYV":"Live Nation Entertainment"},"source_url":"https://investorplace.com/2021/04/7-stocks-to-buy-that-will-benefit-from-pent-up-demand/","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1187199650","content_text":"These companies should benefit as businesses reopen, making these excellent stocks to buy\nRecent economic data shows that the U.S. economy is recovering at a faster pace than expected from the Covid-19 pandemic. As vaccinations accelerate and government stimulus measures support consumers and businesses, the economy is expected to surge once pent-up demand is unwound, and along with it, an array of new stocks to buy.\nIn this year’s second half, industries that were hardest hit by the pandemic are expected to come roaring back. Vacation resorts, movie theatres, restaurants and airlines are each forecast to run hot in 2021 and beyond as people get out of the house and spend again on leisure and entertainment.\nIn this article, we look at seven stocks that will benefit from pent-up demand.\n\nMGM Resorts(NYSE:MGM)\nLive Nation Entertainment(NYSE:LYV)\nAMC Theatres(NYSE:AMC)\nThe Walt Disney Company(NYSE:DIS)\nCarnival(NYSE:CCL)\nSimon Property Group(NYSE:SPG)\nSouthwest Airlines(NYSE:LUV)\n\nMGM Resorts (MGM)\nAmericans love gambling. Consider that more than $4 billion was wagered on the Super Bowl this past February and you get an idea of how big an industry gambling is in the U.S. And, as people again return to the gambling and entertainment meccas of Las Vegas and Atlantic City, it should benefit MGM Resorts, one of the leading casino and resort companies in the world with operations as far away as Macau, China.\nMGM used the pandemic as an opportunity to reposition and re-brand itself, moving away from gaming in casinos and vacation resort properties and focusing more on sports betting. That shift should help MGM by lessening its reliance on foot traffic at its casinos and as sports at both the collegiate and professional levels return with a vengeance this year.\nMGM stock has been one of the stronger reopening plays this year. Since January, the share price is up a cool 30% at just over $40.\nLive Nation Entertainment (LYV)\nLive music is a huge business. In 2019, before Covid-19 shut things down, the live music industry generated global revenues (subscription required) of nearly $30 billion. Last year, revenues were a third of that level at just $10 billion worldwide, according to market research firmStatista. This year, live music revenues are expected to be double the 2020 level at $20 billion and are forecast to reach $31 billion by 2024. All of this is great news for Live Nation Entertainment, the Beverly Hills, California-based company that promotes, operates and manages ticket sales for music concerts and other live entertainment events all over the world.\nTo be sure, Live Nation had a rough go of it in 2020 as its revenue fell 84% from pre-pandemic levels. The company compensated by implementing $950 million of cost reductions. It also remains bullish on its prospects for this year, noting that 83% of customers with tickets to cancelled shows have opted to hold on to their seats until the events are rescheduled. Only 17% of ticket holders asked for their money back.\nInvestors have responded positively to Live Nation’s cost cutting and outlook, pushing LYV stock up 11% year-to-date at $81.82 a share.\nAMC Theatres (AMC)\nAMC stock has been knocked around a lot this year, pushed up and down by the Reddit trading crowd that apparently finds it amusing to pump-and-dump shares of America’s largest movie theatre chain. Add in a narrowly averted bankruptcy filing and a recent analyst report that put a price target on AMC shares of $0.01, and it’s clear that it has been a challenging time for the Leawood, Kansas-based company that has been credited with popularizing the modern movie-going experience.\nHowever, despite all the drama, there is reason to be hopeful when it comes to AMC Theatres and the box office. While there have not been many blockbuster movies released in theatres in recent months, the opening of the film“Godzilla vs. Kong”at the start of April gave reason to cheer. The Warner Bros. movie had the best opening weekend for a movie since the Covid-19 pandemic shutdown theatres, raking in $32.2 million in domestic ticket receipts. Worldwide, Godzilla vs. Kong earned $285.4 million during its five-day opening weekend (Wednesday to Sunday).\nAMC stock has been whipsawed this year, but has been holding steady around $9.50 a share since the end of March.\nThe Walt Disney Company (DIS)\nThe Walt Disney Company has largely been propped up during the pandemic by the growing strength of its streaming service, Disney+. That the company launched its streaming platform less than six months before the Covid-19 pandemic forced the shut down of the company’s theme parks, cruise lines and resorts all over the world seems now like brilliant planning on the part of the Mouse House. Disney+ has, after all, added more than 100 million subscribers since it first launched in the autumn of 2019.\nHowever, Disney+ remains only one part of the company’s business, albeit a growing part. And now that Covid-19 is in retreat around the world, Disney will reopen its theme parks and attractions this spring and summer that were almost entirely closed throughout last year.\nThere’s also the popular Disney cruise line business to restart and new film and television production that will provide new content to Disney’s popular library, adding to properties such as Star Wars, Marvel, Pixar animation and more. All told, Disney should have a very big year in 2021.\nDIS stock has pulled back a bit in recent weeks at $183.15 a share, but it has been taking runs at breaking above $200 a share since mid-February.\nCarnival (CCL)\nCarnival Cruise Lines is ready to come out of dry dock and take to the seas again. This explains why the Miami, Florida-based company, the world’s largest cruise operator, is lobbying the Center for Disease Control to try and get its cruise ships sailing again.\nAt stake is a share of the $16 billion in revenue that is expected to be generated by the cruise line industry this year. How soon Carnival is able to resume operations to destinations such as the Bahamas and Bermuda remains to be seen. But the pent-up demand should put wind in the sails of the company and CCL stock.\nSince the end of January, CCL stock has risen 26% to $27.34 a share. More gains are forecast as the company’s operations and revenues return in earnest later this year. The share price has pulled back from near $30 since the start of April as the company’s immediate prospects remain cloudy. But a bullish case can be made for Carnival as Covid-19 vaccines accelerate and the economy reopens. The medianprice targeton the company’s stock is right around $30 a share, suggesting a small upside from current levels. The high price on the stock is $41 per share.\nSimon Property Group (SPG)\nThe shopping mall isn’t dead. Not yet anyway. While we’ve all increased our online shopping over the past year, people are itching to get out of their houses and go back to their favorite stores. Beyond that though, shopping malls are not just places where people go to shop. They are also where people meet to socialize with friends and families, grab a bite to eat and maybe see a movie. And this all bodes well for Simon Property, the largest shopping mall operator in the United States.\nWith the economy in full recovery mode and a new round of $1,400 stimulus checks landing in consumers’ bank accounts, retail stores and shopping malls are sure to benefit. The National Retail Federation forecasts that retail sales will grow nearly 10% this year to more than $4.30 trillion as consumer spending rebounds strongly from its pandemic lows.\nThis optimistic forecast is reflected in SPG stock, which is up 36% year-to-date at $114.17 a share.\nSouthwest Airlines (LUV)\nHow will everyone get to their vacation destinations and travel to see friends and family in the coming months when the country reopens? Southwest Airlines, that’s how. The top U.S. airline for leisure travel is guaranteed to benefit from the reopening of the economy and pent-up travel demand. Already, air travel is moving higher with the Transportation Security Administration (TSA) reporting daily screenings of more than 1.5 million passengers, the most since before the pandemic.\nSouthwest Airlines, which is the largest low-cost airline in the world, carries more domestic passengers than any airline based in the U.S. The carrier also flies to popular sun destinations in the Caribbean and Mexico, and aggressively markets its low fares and travel locations to the public.\nLUV stock has been a clear winner this year, with its share price up 32% year-to-date as investors increasingly buy into the reopening story and bet on revenge travel.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":461,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":375521027,"gmtCreate":1619364970669,"gmtModify":1634273999293,"author":{"id":"3582416963767497","authorId":"3582416963767497","name":"AlexMachinic","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0070651b1b40a66246df888d1fcda127","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3582416963767497","authorIdStr":"3582416963767497"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Like and comment","listText":"Like and comment","text":"Like and comment","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/375521027","repostId":"1136703686","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1136703686","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1619336553,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1136703686?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-04-25 15:42","market":"hk","language":"en","title":"China Says Top Level IP Protection Drafts Near Completion","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1136703686","media":"Bloomberg","summary":"Draft plans will support five-year economic blueprint\nBeijing to speed up relevant legislation for A","content":"<ul>\n <li>Draft plans will support five-year economic blueprint</li>\n <li>Beijing to speed up relevant legislation for AI, big data</li>\n</ul>\n<p>China says it is near completion on top level plans for strengthening intellectual property protection, an area of contention between the Beijing government and theUnited States.</p>\n<p>The draft plans would support China’s current five-year economic and social blueprint, which puts renewed emphasis on intellectual property rights.</p>\n<p>China is “orderly implementing” intellectual property provisions in the first phase trade deal with the U.S., China National Intellectual Property Administration Commissioner Shen Changyu said at a briefing in Beijing on Sunday.</p>\n<p>The Biden administration has pledged to work with allies to confront Beijing on a wide range of issues including intellectual property rights. While the U.S. administration is still formulating its China strategy, key members of the government have signaled they will continue some of former President Donald Trump’s hard-line economic policies toward China.</p>\n<p>Shen said China would speed up intellectual property legislation in new fields such as artificial intelligence and big data.</p>\n<p>Beijing would accelerate the construction of a national big data center for IP and support Hong Kong in building a regional IP trading center, Shen said.</p>","source":"lsy1584095487587","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>China Says Top Level IP Protection Drafts Near Completion</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nChina Says Top Level IP Protection Drafts Near Completion\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-04-25 15:42 GMT+8 <a href=https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-04-25/china-says-top-level-ip-protection-drafts-near-completion?srnd=markets-vp><strong>Bloomberg</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Draft plans will support five-year economic blueprint\nBeijing to speed up relevant legislation for AI, big data\n\nChina says it is near completion on top level plans for strengthening intellectual ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-04-25/china-says-top-level-ip-protection-drafts-near-completion?srnd=markets-vp\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"399001":"深证成指","399006":"创业板指","000001.SH":"上证指数"},"source_url":"https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-04-25/china-says-top-level-ip-protection-drafts-near-completion?srnd=markets-vp","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1136703686","content_text":"Draft plans will support five-year economic blueprint\nBeijing to speed up relevant legislation for AI, big data\n\nChina says it is near completion on top level plans for strengthening intellectual property protection, an area of contention between the Beijing government and theUnited States.\nThe draft plans would support China’s current five-year economic and social blueprint, which puts renewed emphasis on intellectual property rights.\nChina is “orderly implementing” intellectual property provisions in the first phase trade deal with the U.S., China National Intellectual Property Administration Commissioner Shen Changyu said at a briefing in Beijing on Sunday.\nThe Biden administration has pledged to work with allies to confront Beijing on a wide range of issues including intellectual property rights. While the U.S. administration is still formulating its China strategy, key members of the government have signaled they will continue some of former President Donald Trump’s hard-line economic policies toward China.\nShen said China would speed up intellectual property legislation in new fields such as artificial intelligence and big data.\nBeijing would accelerate the construction of a national big data center for IP and support Hong Kong in building a regional IP trading center, Shen said.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":361,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":375523318,"gmtCreate":1619364838934,"gmtModify":1634273999653,"author":{"id":"3582416963767497","authorId":"3582416963767497","name":"AlexMachinic","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0070651b1b40a66246df888d1fcda127","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3582416963767497","authorIdStr":"3582416963767497"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Like pls","listText":"Like pls","text":"Like pls","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/375523318","repostId":"1159622467","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1159622467","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1619337262,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1159622467?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-04-25 15:54","market":"us","language":"en","title":"\"The Stock Market Has Gone Crazy And Will Likely Go Even Crazier\"","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1159622467","media":"zerohedge","summary":"Chen Zhao, Founding Partner and Chief Strategist of Montreal-based Alpine Macro, has been analyzing ","content":"<p>Chen Zhao, Founding Partner and Chief Strategist of Montreal-based Alpine Macro, has been analyzing global financial markets for more than thirty years. Numerous investors worldwide know him as the long-serving Chief Strategist of BCA Research.</p>\n<p>Today, Zhao is confident about equity markets. He sees the ingredients for a strong recovery in the global economy, and he believes fears of higher inflation are overblown. He sees the potential for the Federal Reserve's monetary policy to inflate a new speculative bubble.<i><b>«This bubble is going to be a whole lot bigger than the tech bubble of the late nineties, and it will probably run a whole lot longer than we think»,</b></i>says Zhao in an in-depth conversation with The Market NZZ.</p>\n<p><b>His main concern is the growing conflict between the United States and China.</b>Today, the risk of escalation over Taiwan is greater than at any time in the last 40 years, Zhao warns.</p>\n<p>Mr. Zhao, in February and March, we have witnessed a sharp upward move in long term US bond yields, temporarily causing a sell-off in the Nasdaq. What do you make of this?</p>\n<blockquote>\n Whenever bond yields rise, you should conceptually decompose this movement into two stages. One is reflective, meaning\n <b>the bond market is trying to tell you something about the underlying economy.</b>Rising bond yields are reflective of stronger economic growth. However, a market selloff could also move into a phase where bond yields become too high, constraining economic activity. In my judgement, what we are witnessing right now is purely reflective. The ISM manufacturing index is at its highest level since 1983, the world economy is in a strong recovery mode. Higher yields are consistent with the economy getting stronger. Under these circumstances, I would be more concerned if bond yields did not rise.\n</blockquote>\n<p>Aren’t rising inflation expectations also playing a part?</p>\n<blockquote>\n <b>I don’t see a clear breakout in inflation expectations.</b>People forget that during the decade after the global financial crisis, inflation expectations have fallen apart. Markets became much more concerned about deflation. Inflation breakeven rates currently are between 2 and 2.2%, whereas the average range during the decade before 2009 was more like 2.5 to 3%. So inflation expectations are simply in the process of being normalized.\n</blockquote>\n<p>Do you see room for a further rise in yields?</p>\n<blockquote>\n Our model says ten year Treasury yields are pretty much at fair value today, at around 1.5%. But we know that if we have a cyclical move in financial markets, nothing stops at fair value. Markets always undershoot or overshoot. So I could see yields rise towards 2% or even a bit more.\n <b>If they approach 2%, we would be active buyers of long term Treasuries.</b>\n</blockquote>\n<p>Don’t you see structural inflation building up?</p>\n<blockquote>\n No, not at all. There is a widespread misunderstanding of this issue. Many people look at the fiscal position of the United States and see a budget deficit of almost 20% of GDP. The Fed balance sheet has expanded by $7 trillion since the beginning of the pandemic, M2 has exploded upward.\n <b>How can this not be inflationary? Well, in my experience, something that is too obvious is usually wrong.</b>\n</blockquote>\n<p>How so?</p>\n<blockquote>\n What happened is this: For all of 2020, the US government unleashed $3.5 trillion in various rescue packages, as a result of which the federal government debt rose by $3.6 trillion. At the same time, the household sector’s disposable income increased by $3.5 trillion, and household savings shot up by $5.5 trillion. In other words, American households not only saved up all the transfer payments they received from the government, but they even saved $2 trillion more from their own income.\n <b>These rescue programs did absolutely nothing to generate aggregate final demand or GDP growth. What we have seen was not a fiscal stimulus to boost aggregate demand, but a transfer payment. This was no different than a one-time tax cut.</b>We know that people’s spending behaviour is determined by their outlook for sustainable income.\n <b>If you give them a one-time tax cut, they will save it. This is what the Permanent Income Hypothesis says and this is what has happened.</b>\n</blockquote>\n<p>Don’t you think there is a huge amount of pent-up demand that will be released once the economy fully reopens?</p>\n<blockquote>\n Yes, there will be a demand surge. Consumption spending has been repressed for over a year as a result of Covid-19 related restrictions. When the world economy reopens, this spending will be released. But this is not inflationary, as the boom will be temporary. People won’t party for the next twenty years. They will party for the next six months or so.\n <b>For inflation to be a true threat, you need aggregate demand exceeding aggregate supply on a sustainable basis. I don’t see that happening any time soon.</b>The government subsidies simply amount to a huge balance sheet swap: government debt as a share of GDP has gone up, while consumers’ net worth has gone up even more. This balance sheet swap has nothing to do with excessive aggregate demand.\n</blockquote>\n<p>Does that also mean you don’t see a structural bear market for bonds, where yields would drift higher over the coming years?</p>\n<blockquote>\n Correct,\n <b>I don’t see the drivers for structurally higher yields.</b>That’s why I think that ten-year Treasury yields above 2% would represent a good buying opportunity.\n</blockquote>\n<p>What would it take for you to change your mind?</p>\n<blockquote>\n <b>I will change my mind if the government took over and built lots of roads and bridges and have it all financed by the Fed.</b>\n</blockquote>\n<p>Isn’t that what the $2.3 trillion Biden infrastructure plan will do?</p>\n<blockquote>\n <b>This proposed package is a step towards that kind of transition. But don’t forget, this is a rather small piece of cake, because it envisions spending roughly $2.2 trillion over eight years, so each year it would add only about 0.8 or 0.9% of GDP adjusted for inflation.</b>On top of that, Biden is proposing higher taxes to fund it. So his infrastructure plan creates some growth on one hand, while taking it away with higher taxes on the other hand. Its net impact will only be around 0.4 or 0.5% of GDP per year. This won’t be a game changer in terms of inflation.\n</blockquote>\n<p>What else would tell you that we are indeed moving through a profound transition towards higher inflation and higher interest rates?</p>\n<blockquote>\n In my view,\n <b>central banks have been completely wrong in their thinking about the Phillips Curve for the past 30 years,</b>meaning that every time the labor market got too strong, they felt they had to raise rates, because they feared wage inflation would kick in. But we know now that there are a lot of things standing in the way between a strong labor market and actual wage inflation. In an environment of rising productivity, you can have higher wages and still lower inflation.\n <b>Fundamentally speaking, free market capitalism is deflationary.</b>\n</blockquote>\n<p>Why?</p>\n<blockquote>\n <b>Neither you nor I are paid more than our marginal output. In our society as a whole, labor is always paid at or below its marginal output. In a socialist economy, it’s the other way round, because workers are usually paid more than their marginal output. So unless we change our system into a much more socialist type, and unless we had a substantial decline in labor productivity, I don’t see a return of structural inflation.</b>\n</blockquote>\n<p>What is different today compared to the 1970s, when we had structural inflation in our Western economies?</p>\n<blockquote>\n In the 1970s, we had powerful unions in the US which drove up labor cost but kept productivity low. This was the legacy of President Roosevelt’s New Deal which, in my view, was very socialist. In addition, you had a collapse in the Bretton Woods System which drove down the Dollar by 50%, leading to a spike in goods price inflation.\n <b>Finally, the US was a manufacturing power in the 1970s and the oil crisis created enormous stagflation pressures. None of this is true today.</b>\n</blockquote>\n<p>There is a tug of war going on between the Fed and financial markets: The Fed says they will stay dovish for a long time, while markets expect a lift-off in short term rates next year. Who is right?</p>\n<blockquote>\n <b>If you think about last decade, Fed policy was always too tight: The projected interest rate path by the Fed, as seen by the so-called Dot Plots, was always higher than market expectations.</b>Because of that, we had a number of financial tremors: The taper tantrum in 2013, the collapse in commodity prices in 2015, the collapse in stock markets in late 2018. We had almost ten years of undershooting inflation and periodic stock market chaos as a result of monetary policy being too tight. In the end, the Fed always caved in and moved towards the market.\n <b>Now it’s the other way round: The Fed is more dovish than market expectations. The market has priced in four or five rate hikes through 2023, while the Fed suggests they won’t do anything before 2024.</b>\n</blockquote>\n<p>Which side is right?</p>\n<blockquote>\n If you only looked at the lessons of the last decade, you’d say the market is right. But\n <b>the difference today is that the Fed has abandoned its old reaction function and wants to stay ultra-stimulative</b>until inflation is above 2% for a while. The Fed is now adamantly saying they are\n <b>willing to be late this time,</b>allowing the economy and inflation to run hotter than they would have in the old days. If that’s the case, then markets may be wrong because they still assume the old reaction function of the Fed. So we don’t know yet, but it’s possible that the Fed will stay dovish much longer than markets think.\n</blockquote>\n<p>What would the consequences of this new Fed policy be?</p>\n<blockquote>\n One conclusion is pretty obvious:\n <b>The stock market has already gone crazy and will likely go even crazier.</b>If you read the work of Charles Kindleberger, you know that asset bubbles are perennial, they grow back every ten years or so, and they are usually driven by easy monetary policy and lots of liquidity. So this new reaction function by the Fed, plus the support from fiscal policy, means that markets will go through a very bubbly period.\n</blockquote>\n<p>How big can this bubble get?</p>\n<blockquote>\n If you look at history, all speculative bubbles got killed by tightening monetary policy.\n <b>You never had a bubble burst while monetary policy was still easy.</b>Asset bubbles pop when central banks tighten policy to a point of yield curve inversion. Today, we’re far away from that.\n <b>That’s why I think this bubble could get a whole lot bigger.</b>\n</blockquote>\n<p>Would you say we’re only at the beginning of this process?</p>\n<blockquote>\n I’d say we are in the early stages of a stock market bubble, especially in the United States.\n <b>There are many signs of speculative behaviour,</b>be it Bitcoin, Gamestop, and so on. But it’s not as pervasive yet as it was in the late 1990s. When the technology bubble burst in 2000, everybody was bullish. Today, many people, even large banks, are still bearish. When they throw in the towel, then the final phase will begin.\n <b>This bubble is going to be a whole lot bigger than the 90s and it will probably run a whole lot longer than we think.</b>\n</blockquote>\n<p>You don’t see the risk of the bond market assuming the job of tightening conditions by rising long term yields?</p>\n<blockquote>\n Historically, rising yields hurt the economy and stock prices only when both the long and the short end of the curve were moving up. It’s usually not the case to see the long end of the curve move way up while short term rates remain pressed down, as they are today. There is a limit to the pain long term rates can create for the economy, because borrowers can always slide down the maturity curve to avoid having to pay higher interest rates.\n <b>So if you put it all together, I think ten year yields can’t move much higher than their fair value, while short term rates remain at zero.</b>\n</blockquote>\n<p>What will happen then?</p>\n<blockquote>\n <b>The most likely scenario I see today is that we’ll have an expanding equity bubble for the next two years, with multiples going way higher. Then comes the point where the Fed just can’t remain dovish anymore. They will raise rates. At that point, the end would be nigh. a bursting asset bubble would be inevitable, and this is always very deflationary. When that happens, we could see zero nominal yields in the U.S.</b>\n</blockquote>\n<p>Late last year, everyone was bearish on the dollar. Now the Greenback has surprised by strengthening since January. Why was that?</p>\n<blockquote>\n <b>Don’t forget that the dollar had dropped almost 11% last year.</b>Getting into 2021, it was very oversold, jammed with shorts. So a natural rebound from this position was to be expected. Going forward, I see the prerequisites in place for a further weakening.\n <b>In the last 20 years, every time the world economy slumped, the dollar strengthened, and every time the world economy got better, the dollar weakened. Right now, we see an improving world economy, hence the dollar should weaken.</b>\n</blockquote>\n<p>What’s the reason for that pattern?</p>\n<blockquote>\n <b>People say the dollar is a safe haven currency, but I don’t see it that way.</b>The Yen and the Swiss Franc are much better safe havens. From the 1970s through the 1990s, the dollar was pro-cyclical, i.e. strengthening with a stronger world economy. This changed around the year 2000. The reason in my view is that large parts of the developed world are in a liquidity trap. And in a liquidity trap, there is infinite demand for dollars, because the dollar demand curve is flat. So every time where we have an economic slump, it means the liquidity trap is deepening, hence the demand for dollars is going up. And every time the economy gets better, the liquidity trap is getting shallower, with demand for dollars shrinking.\n <b>So, if I take the view that the world economy in the second half of this year is starting a boom, then logically, we cannot have a stronger dollar. We have never had a booming world economy and a stronger dollar since 2000.</b>\n</blockquote>\n<p>When you look at world equity markets, which geographies and sectors currently offer the best opportunities?</p>\n<blockquote>\n I am very value conscious, so\n <b>I like European stocks, they have underperformed for a long time</b>. I would overweight Germany, France and Italy; their valuations are way more attractive than the US market. If we have a world economic boom, these markets will do very well. The US is difficult to underweight, because it’s so huge, but on the fringe I would suggest to overweight non-US stocks, i.e. Europe and Japan.\n <b>I think the Japanese market can have one last, big upleg before this bull market is over.</b>\n</blockquote>\n<p>An economic boom and a lower dollar should be bullish for emerging markets, right?</p>\n<blockquote>\n We must keep in mind that\n <b>today’s emerging markets are very different from 20 years ago.</b>Today, more than 40% of the MSCI EM index is made up by China. In China, the equity market is predominantly driven by big tech, with stocks like Alibaba and Tencent. So China has a similar issue like the US tech sector: In an environment of rising bond yields, these high-multiple stocks tend to underperform. Besides, China has begun to tighten policy, which is a negative for EM performance as a whole. I would shift more towards the commodity segment, meaning Latin America. They have been beaten down badly because of the Bolsonaro screwup in the pandemic crisis, but for every grief there is a price, and\n <b>I think Brazilian assets are cheap enough to absorb all the negatives.</b>I particularly like commodity markets like Chile. I also like Australia and Canada. These are places where value is better, and they are well positioned for rising commodity prices.\n</blockquote>\n<p>We see a world of inverted roles: After the financial crisis, China embarked on a huge monetary and fiscal stimulus. Today it’s the U.S., while China is tightening. What’s going on?</p>\n<blockquote>\n If you look at\n <b>the net increase in Chinese fiscal deficit in terms of fighting the pandemic, it was about 4.7% last year, as opposed to about 15% of GDP in the US.</b>Of course, China got the pandemic under control earlier, but that’s not all. The key thing is, their fiscal deficit spending is 100% infrastructure, whereas in the Western world we talk about 10 to 20% of GDP being dumped into the system through transfer payments. The fiscal multiplier in China is huge, while in the US it is practically zero. The second thing is this:\n <b>After 2008, China went on a construction spree, financed by an avalanche of credit creation. For ten years since then, the central government has been concerned about the economy getting overleveraged. This time, they are comparatively stingy and Beijing wants to slow down the credit creation process early.</b>\n</blockquote>\n<p>The stock market in China is not happy about that.</p>\n<blockquote>\n <b>The stock market is very sensitive to changes in liquidity conditions.</b>If credit growth is slowing down, stocks perform poorly. So it’s not a great time to buy Chinese equities right now. But from a broader economic point of view, I don’t think we’ll see the kind of tightening shock in China like we saw in 2015. So even though it might not be a great time to buy stocks due to liquidity conditions, I think the Chinese economy will do reasonably well, which also means a good environment for commodity prices.\n</blockquote>\n<p>What makes you confident that policy makers in China won’t commit a mistake and tighten too much?</p>\n<blockquote>\n They have not created much credit excesses this time, so there is no reason for them to tighten aggressively.\n <b>Geopolitically, the leadership in China has reached the conclusion that America is trying to suffocate the Chinese economy. So they have to maintain growth momentum by letting foreign investment money coming in.</b>\n</blockquote>\n<p>Has there been a change in thinking towards the US in Beijing since Joe Biden assumed the presidency?</p>\n<blockquote>\n <b>I think both sides are too far on the path of great power rivalry already.</b>America represents the incumbent power, and China is the rising power that is challenging the US. I personally believe that\n <b>we in the West don’t get the full picture of Sino-US confrontation. We only get the western side of the story,</b>we never get to see the Chinese perspective through our media.\n</blockquote>\n<p>What is the Chinese perspective?</p>\n<blockquote>\n <b>Within China, there is a strong feeling that the Americans have destroyed the bilateral relationship to cater to purely domestic political needs,</b>starting with Donald Trump. They feel that they are treated unfairly, in a confrontation that is unprovoked. Even when it comes to Hong Kong, we only know Beijing violated the concept of One Country Two Systems by imposing the new security law, but\n <b>how about the social upheavals and civil unrest in the two years leading up to the change of law</b>? No one said anything here. The US accused the Chinese of not playing by the rules, but the Chinese say they have played by the rules that were written by the US. They have joined the WTO and have slowly opened up their system. They signed the Paris Treaty. They have honoured all the international obligations, then Trump came and uprooted the very system that America had built. So the Chinese feel that the Americans suddenly want to change the rules again.\n <b>The consensus in Beijing now is that the US wants to derail China. Once you have a consensus like that, it’s difficult to change.</b>\n</blockquote>\n<p>Will Biden continue on that path?</p>\n<blockquote>\n Biden has inherited Trump’s policies. That’s unfortunate, but there’s not much he can do. Trump’s China policy served his domestic agenda, hitting China in order to score points at home. As a result of that, public opinion of China spiralled down. Biden can’t turn that back. And again,\n <b>the consensus in China is that America wants to keep China down. We must prepare for a long confrontation.</b>\n</blockquote>\n<p>Do you see the risk of that confrontation turning hot?</p>\n<blockquote>\n <b>Washington is playing with the very nerve of the Chinese national interest, which is Taiwan.</b>Since the beginning of bilateral diplomatic relations in the 1970s, one core commitment of the US was the One China Policy, avoiding official contact with the government in Taiwan. But Trump changed that, and Biden continues to follow the Trump script. This is very dangerous. Since 1979, there has been a tacit understanding on both sides that if the US does not encourage separation, the Chinese side will not resort to any military action. Now this tacit agreement has been thrown out of the window. Because Washington has seemingly encouraged official contacts with Taiwan, China feels the need to show their commitment to retake the island to maintain territorial integrity. That’s why we have incursions into Taiwanese air space practically every day. There is a reaction feedback going back and forth.\n <b>I think there is a strong consensus among the Chinese leadership that within the next five years, if the US continues along this path, they might as well just take the risk of invading Taiwan. Then, all bets are off. The risk of some kind of confrontation is the highest in 40 years.</b>\n</blockquote>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>\"The Stock Market Has Gone Crazy And Will Likely Go Even Crazier\"</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n\"The Stock Market Has Gone Crazy And Will Likely Go Even Crazier\"\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-04-25 15:54 GMT+8 <a href=https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/stock-market-has-gone-crazy-and-will-likely-go-even-crazier><strong>zerohedge</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Chen Zhao, Founding Partner and Chief Strategist of Montreal-based Alpine Macro, has been analyzing global financial markets for more than thirty years. Numerous investors worldwide know him as the ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/stock-market-has-gone-crazy-and-will-likely-go-even-crazier\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯","SPY":"标普500ETF"},"source_url":"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/stock-market-has-gone-crazy-and-will-likely-go-even-crazier","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1159622467","content_text":"Chen Zhao, Founding Partner and Chief Strategist of Montreal-based Alpine Macro, has been analyzing global financial markets for more than thirty years. Numerous investors worldwide know him as the long-serving Chief Strategist of BCA Research.\nToday, Zhao is confident about equity markets. He sees the ingredients for a strong recovery in the global economy, and he believes fears of higher inflation are overblown. He sees the potential for the Federal Reserve's monetary policy to inflate a new speculative bubble.«This bubble is going to be a whole lot bigger than the tech bubble of the late nineties, and it will probably run a whole lot longer than we think»,says Zhao in an in-depth conversation with The Market NZZ.\nHis main concern is the growing conflict between the United States and China.Today, the risk of escalation over Taiwan is greater than at any time in the last 40 years, Zhao warns.\nMr. Zhao, in February and March, we have witnessed a sharp upward move in long term US bond yields, temporarily causing a sell-off in the Nasdaq. What do you make of this?\n\n Whenever bond yields rise, you should conceptually decompose this movement into two stages. One is reflective, meaning\n the bond market is trying to tell you something about the underlying economy.Rising bond yields are reflective of stronger economic growth. However, a market selloff could also move into a phase where bond yields become too high, constraining economic activity. In my judgement, what we are witnessing right now is purely reflective. The ISM manufacturing index is at its highest level since 1983, the world economy is in a strong recovery mode. Higher yields are consistent with the economy getting stronger. Under these circumstances, I would be more concerned if bond yields did not rise.\n\nAren’t rising inflation expectations also playing a part?\n\nI don’t see a clear breakout in inflation expectations.People forget that during the decade after the global financial crisis, inflation expectations have fallen apart. Markets became much more concerned about deflation. Inflation breakeven rates currently are between 2 and 2.2%, whereas the average range during the decade before 2009 was more like 2.5 to 3%. So inflation expectations are simply in the process of being normalized.\n\nDo you see room for a further rise in yields?\n\n Our model says ten year Treasury yields are pretty much at fair value today, at around 1.5%. But we know that if we have a cyclical move in financial markets, nothing stops at fair value. Markets always undershoot or overshoot. So I could see yields rise towards 2% or even a bit more.\n If they approach 2%, we would be active buyers of long term Treasuries.\n\nDon’t you see structural inflation building up?\n\n No, not at all. There is a widespread misunderstanding of this issue. Many people look at the fiscal position of the United States and see a budget deficit of almost 20% of GDP. The Fed balance sheet has expanded by $7 trillion since the beginning of the pandemic, M2 has exploded upward.\n How can this not be inflationary? Well, in my experience, something that is too obvious is usually wrong.\n\nHow so?\n\n What happened is this: For all of 2020, the US government unleashed $3.5 trillion in various rescue packages, as a result of which the federal government debt rose by $3.6 trillion. At the same time, the household sector’s disposable income increased by $3.5 trillion, and household savings shot up by $5.5 trillion. In other words, American households not only saved up all the transfer payments they received from the government, but they even saved $2 trillion more from their own income.\n These rescue programs did absolutely nothing to generate aggregate final demand or GDP growth. What we have seen was not a fiscal stimulus to boost aggregate demand, but a transfer payment. This was no different than a one-time tax cut.We know that people’s spending behaviour is determined by their outlook for sustainable income.\n If you give them a one-time tax cut, they will save it. This is what the Permanent Income Hypothesis says and this is what has happened.\n\nDon’t you think there is a huge amount of pent-up demand that will be released once the economy fully reopens?\n\n Yes, there will be a demand surge. Consumption spending has been repressed for over a year as a result of Covid-19 related restrictions. When the world economy reopens, this spending will be released. But this is not inflationary, as the boom will be temporary. People won’t party for the next twenty years. They will party for the next six months or so.\n For inflation to be a true threat, you need aggregate demand exceeding aggregate supply on a sustainable basis. I don’t see that happening any time soon.The government subsidies simply amount to a huge balance sheet swap: government debt as a share of GDP has gone up, while consumers’ net worth has gone up even more. This balance sheet swap has nothing to do with excessive aggregate demand.\n\nDoes that also mean you don’t see a structural bear market for bonds, where yields would drift higher over the coming years?\n\n Correct,\n I don’t see the drivers for structurally higher yields.That’s why I think that ten-year Treasury yields above 2% would represent a good buying opportunity.\n\nWhat would it take for you to change your mind?\n\nI will change my mind if the government took over and built lots of roads and bridges and have it all financed by the Fed.\n\nIsn’t that what the $2.3 trillion Biden infrastructure plan will do?\n\nThis proposed package is a step towards that kind of transition. But don’t forget, this is a rather small piece of cake, because it envisions spending roughly $2.2 trillion over eight years, so each year it would add only about 0.8 or 0.9% of GDP adjusted for inflation.On top of that, Biden is proposing higher taxes to fund it. So his infrastructure plan creates some growth on one hand, while taking it away with higher taxes on the other hand. Its net impact will only be around 0.4 or 0.5% of GDP per year. This won’t be a game changer in terms of inflation.\n\nWhat else would tell you that we are indeed moving through a profound transition towards higher inflation and higher interest rates?\n\n In my view,\n central banks have been completely wrong in their thinking about the Phillips Curve for the past 30 years,meaning that every time the labor market got too strong, they felt they had to raise rates, because they feared wage inflation would kick in. But we know now that there are a lot of things standing in the way between a strong labor market and actual wage inflation. In an environment of rising productivity, you can have higher wages and still lower inflation.\n Fundamentally speaking, free market capitalism is deflationary.\n\nWhy?\n\nNeither you nor I are paid more than our marginal output. In our society as a whole, labor is always paid at or below its marginal output. In a socialist economy, it’s the other way round, because workers are usually paid more than their marginal output. So unless we change our system into a much more socialist type, and unless we had a substantial decline in labor productivity, I don’t see a return of structural inflation.\n\nWhat is different today compared to the 1970s, when we had structural inflation in our Western economies?\n\n In the 1970s, we had powerful unions in the US which drove up labor cost but kept productivity low. This was the legacy of President Roosevelt’s New Deal which, in my view, was very socialist. In addition, you had a collapse in the Bretton Woods System which drove down the Dollar by 50%, leading to a spike in goods price inflation.\n Finally, the US was a manufacturing power in the 1970s and the oil crisis created enormous stagflation pressures. None of this is true today.\n\nThere is a tug of war going on between the Fed and financial markets: The Fed says they will stay dovish for a long time, while markets expect a lift-off in short term rates next year. Who is right?\n\nIf you think about last decade, Fed policy was always too tight: The projected interest rate path by the Fed, as seen by the so-called Dot Plots, was always higher than market expectations.Because of that, we had a number of financial tremors: The taper tantrum in 2013, the collapse in commodity prices in 2015, the collapse in stock markets in late 2018. We had almost ten years of undershooting inflation and periodic stock market chaos as a result of monetary policy being too tight. In the end, the Fed always caved in and moved towards the market.\n Now it’s the other way round: The Fed is more dovish than market expectations. The market has priced in four or five rate hikes through 2023, while the Fed suggests they won’t do anything before 2024.\n\nWhich side is right?\n\n If you only looked at the lessons of the last decade, you’d say the market is right. But\n the difference today is that the Fed has abandoned its old reaction function and wants to stay ultra-stimulativeuntil inflation is above 2% for a while. The Fed is now adamantly saying they are\n willing to be late this time,allowing the economy and inflation to run hotter than they would have in the old days. If that’s the case, then markets may be wrong because they still assume the old reaction function of the Fed. So we don’t know yet, but it’s possible that the Fed will stay dovish much longer than markets think.\n\nWhat would the consequences of this new Fed policy be?\n\n One conclusion is pretty obvious:\n The stock market has already gone crazy and will likely go even crazier.If you read the work of Charles Kindleberger, you know that asset bubbles are perennial, they grow back every ten years or so, and they are usually driven by easy monetary policy and lots of liquidity. So this new reaction function by the Fed, plus the support from fiscal policy, means that markets will go through a very bubbly period.\n\nHow big can this bubble get?\n\n If you look at history, all speculative bubbles got killed by tightening monetary policy.\n You never had a bubble burst while monetary policy was still easy.Asset bubbles pop when central banks tighten policy to a point of yield curve inversion. Today, we’re far away from that.\n That’s why I think this bubble could get a whole lot bigger.\n\nWould you say we’re only at the beginning of this process?\n\n I’d say we are in the early stages of a stock market bubble, especially in the United States.\n There are many signs of speculative behaviour,be it Bitcoin, Gamestop, and so on. But it’s not as pervasive yet as it was in the late 1990s. When the technology bubble burst in 2000, everybody was bullish. Today, many people, even large banks, are still bearish. When they throw in the towel, then the final phase will begin.\n This bubble is going to be a whole lot bigger than the 90s and it will probably run a whole lot longer than we think.\n\nYou don’t see the risk of the bond market assuming the job of tightening conditions by rising long term yields?\n\n Historically, rising yields hurt the economy and stock prices only when both the long and the short end of the curve were moving up. It’s usually not the case to see the long end of the curve move way up while short term rates remain pressed down, as they are today. There is a limit to the pain long term rates can create for the economy, because borrowers can always slide down the maturity curve to avoid having to pay higher interest rates.\n So if you put it all together, I think ten year yields can’t move much higher than their fair value, while short term rates remain at zero.\n\nWhat will happen then?\n\nThe most likely scenario I see today is that we’ll have an expanding equity bubble for the next two years, with multiples going way higher. Then comes the point where the Fed just can’t remain dovish anymore. They will raise rates. At that point, the end would be nigh. a bursting asset bubble would be inevitable, and this is always very deflationary. When that happens, we could see zero nominal yields in the U.S.\n\nLate last year, everyone was bearish on the dollar. Now the Greenback has surprised by strengthening since January. Why was that?\n\nDon’t forget that the dollar had dropped almost 11% last year.Getting into 2021, it was very oversold, jammed with shorts. So a natural rebound from this position was to be expected. Going forward, I see the prerequisites in place for a further weakening.\n In the last 20 years, every time the world economy slumped, the dollar strengthened, and every time the world economy got better, the dollar weakened. Right now, we see an improving world economy, hence the dollar should weaken.\n\nWhat’s the reason for that pattern?\n\nPeople say the dollar is a safe haven currency, but I don’t see it that way.The Yen and the Swiss Franc are much better safe havens. From the 1970s through the 1990s, the dollar was pro-cyclical, i.e. strengthening with a stronger world economy. This changed around the year 2000. The reason in my view is that large parts of the developed world are in a liquidity trap. And in a liquidity trap, there is infinite demand for dollars, because the dollar demand curve is flat. So every time where we have an economic slump, it means the liquidity trap is deepening, hence the demand for dollars is going up. And every time the economy gets better, the liquidity trap is getting shallower, with demand for dollars shrinking.\n So, if I take the view that the world economy in the second half of this year is starting a boom, then logically, we cannot have a stronger dollar. We have never had a booming world economy and a stronger dollar since 2000.\n\nWhen you look at world equity markets, which geographies and sectors currently offer the best opportunities?\n\n I am very value conscious, so\n I like European stocks, they have underperformed for a long time. I would overweight Germany, France and Italy; their valuations are way more attractive than the US market. If we have a world economic boom, these markets will do very well. The US is difficult to underweight, because it’s so huge, but on the fringe I would suggest to overweight non-US stocks, i.e. Europe and Japan.\n I think the Japanese market can have one last, big upleg before this bull market is over.\n\nAn economic boom and a lower dollar should be bullish for emerging markets, right?\n\n We must keep in mind that\n today’s emerging markets are very different from 20 years ago.Today, more than 40% of the MSCI EM index is made up by China. In China, the equity market is predominantly driven by big tech, with stocks like Alibaba and Tencent. So China has a similar issue like the US tech sector: In an environment of rising bond yields, these high-multiple stocks tend to underperform. Besides, China has begun to tighten policy, which is a negative for EM performance as a whole. I would shift more towards the commodity segment, meaning Latin America. They have been beaten down badly because of the Bolsonaro screwup in the pandemic crisis, but for every grief there is a price, and\n I think Brazilian assets are cheap enough to absorb all the negatives.I particularly like commodity markets like Chile. I also like Australia and Canada. These are places where value is better, and they are well positioned for rising commodity prices.\n\nWe see a world of inverted roles: After the financial crisis, China embarked on a huge monetary and fiscal stimulus. Today it’s the U.S., while China is tightening. What’s going on?\n\n If you look at\n the net increase in Chinese fiscal deficit in terms of fighting the pandemic, it was about 4.7% last year, as opposed to about 15% of GDP in the US.Of course, China got the pandemic under control earlier, but that’s not all. The key thing is, their fiscal deficit spending is 100% infrastructure, whereas in the Western world we talk about 10 to 20% of GDP being dumped into the system through transfer payments. The fiscal multiplier in China is huge, while in the US it is practically zero. The second thing is this:\n After 2008, China went on a construction spree, financed by an avalanche of credit creation. For ten years since then, the central government has been concerned about the economy getting overleveraged. This time, they are comparatively stingy and Beijing wants to slow down the credit creation process early.\n\nThe stock market in China is not happy about that.\n\nThe stock market is very sensitive to changes in liquidity conditions.If credit growth is slowing down, stocks perform poorly. So it’s not a great time to buy Chinese equities right now. But from a broader economic point of view, I don’t think we’ll see the kind of tightening shock in China like we saw in 2015. So even though it might not be a great time to buy stocks due to liquidity conditions, I think the Chinese economy will do reasonably well, which also means a good environment for commodity prices.\n\nWhat makes you confident that policy makers in China won’t commit a mistake and tighten too much?\n\n They have not created much credit excesses this time, so there is no reason for them to tighten aggressively.\n Geopolitically, the leadership in China has reached the conclusion that America is trying to suffocate the Chinese economy. So they have to maintain growth momentum by letting foreign investment money coming in.\n\nHas there been a change in thinking towards the US in Beijing since Joe Biden assumed the presidency?\n\nI think both sides are too far on the path of great power rivalry already.America represents the incumbent power, and China is the rising power that is challenging the US. I personally believe that\n we in the West don’t get the full picture of Sino-US confrontation. We only get the western side of the story,we never get to see the Chinese perspective through our media.\n\nWhat is the Chinese perspective?\n\nWithin China, there is a strong feeling that the Americans have destroyed the bilateral relationship to cater to purely domestic political needs,starting with Donald Trump. They feel that they are treated unfairly, in a confrontation that is unprovoked. Even when it comes to Hong Kong, we only know Beijing violated the concept of One Country Two Systems by imposing the new security law, but\n how about the social upheavals and civil unrest in the two years leading up to the change of law? No one said anything here. The US accused the Chinese of not playing by the rules, but the Chinese say they have played by the rules that were written by the US. They have joined the WTO and have slowly opened up their system. They signed the Paris Treaty. They have honoured all the international obligations, then Trump came and uprooted the very system that America had built. So the Chinese feel that the Americans suddenly want to change the rules again.\n The consensus in Beijing now is that the US wants to derail China. Once you have a consensus like that, it’s difficult to change.\n\nWill Biden continue on that path?\n\n Biden has inherited Trump’s policies. That’s unfortunate, but there’s not much he can do. Trump’s China policy served his domestic agenda, hitting China in order to score points at home. As a result of that, public opinion of China spiralled down. Biden can’t turn that back. And again,\n the consensus in China is that America wants to keep China down. We must prepare for a long confrontation.\n\nDo you see the risk of that confrontation turning hot?\n\nWashington is playing with the very nerve of the Chinese national interest, which is Taiwan.Since the beginning of bilateral diplomatic relations in the 1970s, one core commitment of the US was the One China Policy, avoiding official contact with the government in Taiwan. But Trump changed that, and Biden continues to follow the Trump script. This is very dangerous. Since 1979, there has been a tacit understanding on both sides that if the US does not encourage separation, the Chinese side will not resort to any military action. Now this tacit agreement has been thrown out of the window. Because Washington has seemingly encouraged official contacts with Taiwan, China feels the need to show their commitment to retake the island to maintain territorial integrity. That’s why we have incursions into Taiwanese air space practically every day. There is a reaction feedback going back and forth.\n I think there is a strong consensus among the Chinese leadership that within the next five years, if the US continues along this path, they might as well just take the risk of invading Taiwan. Then, all bets are off. The risk of some kind of confrontation is the highest in 40 years.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":216,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":375529841,"gmtCreate":1619364725983,"gmtModify":1634274000095,"author":{"id":"3582416963767497","authorId":"3582416963767497","name":"AlexMachinic","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0070651b1b40a66246df888d1fcda127","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3582416963767497","authorIdStr":"3582416963767497"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Like and comment","listText":"Like and comment","text":"Like and comment","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/375529841","repostId":"1184404050","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1184404050","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1619319329,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1184404050?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-04-25 10:55","market":"us","language":"en","title":"What to watch in the markets this week","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1184404050","media":"CNBC","summary":"The last week of April will be extremely busy for markets with a third of the S&P 500 reporting earnings, a Federal Reserve meeting, and new spending and tax proposals from the White House.Big Tech is a highlight of the earnings calendar, with Apple, Microsoft, Amazon, Facebook and Alphabet all releasing results.The Fed is not expected to take any action, but economists expect it to defend its policy to let inflation run hot.There is some key data including first-quarter gross domestic product a","content":"<div>\n<p>KEY POINTSThe last week of April will be extremely busy for markets with a third of the S&P 500 reporting earnings, a Federal Reserve meeting, and new spending and tax proposals from the White House....</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.cnbc.com/2021/04/23/taxes-and-inflation-will-be-key-themes-for-markets-in-the-week-ahead.html\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n","source":"cnbc_highlight","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; 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height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWhat to watch in the markets this week\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-04-25 10:55 GMT+8 <a href=https://www.cnbc.com/2021/04/23/taxes-and-inflation-will-be-key-themes-for-markets-in-the-week-ahead.html><strong>CNBC</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>KEY POINTSThe last week of April will be extremely busy for markets with a third of the S&P 500 reporting earnings, a Federal Reserve meeting, and new spending and tax proposals from the White House....</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.cnbc.com/2021/04/23/taxes-and-inflation-will-be-key-themes-for-markets-in-the-week-ahead.html\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"GOOGL":"谷歌A",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","AAPL":"苹果",".DJI":"道琼斯","GOOG":"谷歌","TSLA":"特斯拉","AMZN":"亚马逊",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"source_url":"https://www.cnbc.com/2021/04/23/taxes-and-inflation-will-be-key-themes-for-markets-in-the-week-ahead.html","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/72bb72e1b84c09fca865c6dcb1bbcd16","article_id":"1184404050","content_text":"KEY POINTSThe last week of April will be extremely busy for markets with a third of the S&P 500 reporting earnings, a Federal Reserve meeting, and new spending and tax proposals from the White House.Big Tech is a highlight of the earnings calendar, with Apple, Microsoft, Amazon, Facebook and Alphabet all releasing results.The Fed is not expected to take any action, but economists expect it to defend its policy to let inflation run hot.There is some key data including first-quarter gross domestic product and the Fed’s favorite inflation measure: the personal consumption expenditures deflator.The final week of April is going to be a busy one for markets with a Federal Reserve meeting and a deluge of earnings news.Hot topics in markets will continue to be inflation and taxes.President Joe Biden is expected to detail his “American Families Plan” and the tax increases to pay for it, including a much higher capital gains tax for the wealthy.The plan is the second part of his Build Back Better agenda and will include new spending proposals aimed at helping families. The president addresses a joint session of Congress Wednesday evening.It’s a huge week for earnings with about a third of the S&P 500 reporting, including Big Tech names, such as Apple,Microsoft,Alphabet and Amazon.As many have already done, firms like Boeing, Ford,Caterpillar and McDonald’s, are likely to detail cost pressures they are facing from rising materials and transportation costs and supply chain disruptions.At the same time, the Fed is expected to defend its policy of letting inflation run hot, while assuring markets it sees the pick-up in prices as only temporary. The central bank meets on Tuesday and Wednesday.The central bank takes the main stage“I think the Fed would like not to be a feature next week, but the Fed will be forced from the background because of concerns about inflation,” said Diane Swonk, chief economist at Grant Thornton.The central bank is not expected to make any policy moves, but Fed Chairman Jerome Powell’s press briefing following the meeting Wednesday will be closely watched.So far, the barrage of earnings news has been positive, with 86% of companies reporting earnings beats. Corporate profits are expected to be up about 33.9% for the first quarter, based on estimates and actual reports, according to Refinitiv. Revenues are about 9.9% higher.There is important inflation data Friday when the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge is reported.The personal consumption expenditure report is expected to show a 1.8% rise in core inflation, still below the Fed’s target of 2%. Other data releases include the first-quarter gross domestic product on Thursday, which is expected to have grown by 6.5%, according to Dow Jones.“I think the Fed has no urgency to shift monetary policy at this point,” said Ian Lyngen, head of U.S. rates strategy at BMO. “The Fed needs to acknowledge that the data is improving. We had a strong first quarter.”“The Fed needs to acknowledge that but at the same time they’re keeping extremely accommodative policy in place, so they’ll have to make a note to the fact that the easy policy is warranted,” he said.Lyngen said the Fed will likely point to continued concerns about the pandemic globally as a potential risk to the economic recovery.Powell is also expected to once more explain that the Fed will let inflation rise above its 2% target for a period of time before it raises rates so that the economy can have more time to heal. “It’s going to be a challenge for the Fed,” said Swonk.The base effects for the next several months will make inflation appear to have jumped sharply because of the comparison to a weak period last year. The consumer price index for April could be above 3%, compared to 2.6% last month, Swonk added.“The Fed is trying to let a lot more people get out onto the dance floor before it calls ‘last call,’” she said. “Really what Powell has been saying since day one is if we take care of people on the margins and bring them back into the labor force, the rest will take care of itself.”Stocks were slightly lower in the past week, and Treasury yields held at lower levels. The 10-year yield,which moves opposite price, was at 1.55% Friday.The S&P 500was down 0.1%, ending the week at 4,180, while Nasdaq Composite was down nearly 0.3% at 14,016. The Dow was off just shy of 0.5% at 34,043.Tax hike prospectsStocks were hit hard on Thursday when after a news report said that Biden is expected to propose a capital gains tax rate of 39.6% for people earning more than $1 million a year.Combined with the 3.8% net investment income tax, the new levy would more than double the long term capital gains rate of 20% or the richest Americans.Strategists said Biden is expected to propose raising the income tax rate for those earning more than $400,000.“I think a lot of people are starting to price in the risk there going to be a significant increase in both corporate and capital gains taxes,” said Lyngen.So far, companies have not provided much in the way of commentary on the proposed hike in corporate taxes to 28% from 21% but they have been talking about other costs.David Bianco, chief investment strategist for the Americas at DWS, said he expects larger companies will do better dealing with supply chain constraints than smaller ones. Big Tech is also likely to fare better during the semiconductor shortage than auto makers, which have already announced production shutdowns, he said.“Next week is tech week. I think we’re going to get down on our knees and just be in awe of their business models and their ability to grow at a behemoth scale,” Bianco said.He said he’s not in favor of Wall Street’s popular trade into cyclicals and out of growth. He still favors growth.“We’re overweight equities really because we’re concerned about rising interest rates,” Bianco said. “I’m not bullish in that I expect the market to rise that much from here.”“We stuck with growth and dug deeper into bond substitutes, utilities, staples, real estate,” he said, adding he is underweight industrials, energy and materials. “Energy is doomed. It’s being nationalized via regulation. I do like industrials, they are well-run companies, but I do think infrastructure spending expectations for classic infrastructure are too high.”He also said industrials are good businesses, but the stocks have become overvalued.Bianco said he likes big box stores, but smaller retailers are facing big challenges that were already impacting them prior to Covid. He also finds small biotech firms attractive.“I like healthcare stocks. Those valuations are reasonable. People have been paranoid about politicians beating on them since 1992. They manage through it and lately they’ve been delivering,” he said.Week ahead calendarMondayEarnings:Tesla,Canadian National Railway, Canon,Check Point Software,Otis Worldwide, Vale,Ameriprise,NXP Semiconductor,Albertsons, Royal Phillips8:30 a.m. Durable goodsTuesdayFOMC begins two day meetingEarnings:Microsoft,Alphabet,Visa,Amgen,Advanced Micro Devices,3M,General Electric,Eli Lilly, Hasbro,United Parcel Service,BP,Novartis,JetBlue,Pultegroup,Archer Daniels Midland,Waste Management,Starbucks,Texas Instrument,Chubb,Mondelez,FireEye,Corning,Raytheon9:00 a.m. S&P/Case-Shiller9:00 a.m. FHFA home prices10:00 a.m. Consumer confidence10:00 a.m. Housing vacanciesWednesdayEarnings:Apple, Boeing,Facebook,Qualcomm,Ford,MGM Resorts,Humana,Norfolk Southern,General Dynamics,Boston Scientific, eBay, Samsung Electronics, GlaxoSmithKline,Yum Brands, SiriusXM, Aflac,Cheesecake Factory,Community Health System,CIT Group,Entergy,CME Group,Hess,Ryder System8:30 a.m. Advance economic indicators2:00 p.m. Fed statement2:30 p.m. Fed Chairman Jerome Powell briefingThursdayEarnings:Amazon,Caterpillar,McDonald’s,Twitter,Bristol-Myers Squibb,Comcast,Merck,Northrop Grumman, Airbus,Kraft Heinz,Intercontinental Exchange,Mastercard,Gilead Sciences,U.S. Steel, Cirrus Logic,Texas Roadhouse, Cabot Oil, PG&E,Royal Dutch Shell,Church & Dwight, Carlyle Group,Southern Co.8:30 a.m. Initial jobless claims8:30 a.m. Real GDP Q110:00 a.m. Pending home salesFridayEarnings:ExxonMobil,Chevron,Colgate-Palmolive,AstraZeneca,Clorox,Barclays, AbbVie, BNP Paribas,Weyerhaeuser,Illinois Tool Works, CBOE Global Markets, Lazard,Newell Brands,Aon,LyondellBasell,Pitney Bowes,Phillips 66,Charter Communications8:30 a.m. Personal income and spending8:30 a.m. Employment cost index Q19:45 a.m. Chicago PMI10:00 a.m. Consumer sentimentSaturdayEarnings:Berkshire Hathaway","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":338,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":375567608,"gmtCreate":1619364300804,"gmtModify":1634274001735,"author":{"id":"3582416963767497","authorId":"3582416963767497","name":"AlexMachinic","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0070651b1b40a66246df888d1fcda127","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3582416963767497","authorIdStr":"3582416963767497"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Like and comment","listText":"Like and comment","text":"Like and comment","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/375567608","repostId":"2129636842","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":177,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}
