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yooniique
2021-06-05
發發發
Can NIO Stock Reach $100? We Think It's A Matter Of 'When' Not 'If'
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We Think It's A Matter Of 'When' Not 'If'","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1148130971","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"NIO's share price has soared by more than 816% in the past year, peaking at almost $62 in early February before the growth stock sell-off in early March.We believe NIO's share price will soar beyond $160 by 2025 as global EV sales continue to ramp up with autonomous driving becoming a reality.NIO has continuously exhibited characteristics of an unsettling innovator. The brand is widely known for their breakthrough in battery swapping technology, “Power Swap”, which provides NIO owners with a fas","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p>\n<ul>\n <li>NIO's share price has soared by more than 816% in the past year, peaking at almost $62 in early February before the growth stock sell-off in early March.</li>\n <li>The company's innovative approach and overseas expansion strategy, combined with the growing market sentiment on global electrification and automation are expected to boost the company's valuation.</li>\n <li>We believe NIO's share price will soar beyond $160 by 2025 as global EV sales continue to ramp up with autonomous driving becoming a reality.</li>\n</ul>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7b31b2f189fa181e941126674e0b4c0b\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1024\"><span>Photo by Drew Angerer/Getty Images News via Getty Images</span></p>\n<p>Despite it being a local Chinese electric vehicle (“EV”) brand that has only recently started its overseas expansion into Europe, NIO(NYSE:NIO)has already garnered significant international attention amidst avid investors within the EV sector in recent years. It has only been three short years since NIO made its first deliveries in mid-2018, yet many are already wondering whether its share price can reach similar heights as an industry leader, Tesla’s(NASDAQ:TSLA). Albeit a little farfetched given Tesla is currently trading at more than $600 per share with a market cap of more than $600 billion, we do believe NIO has promising potential to break $100 per share before 2025. Even Wall Street Analysts remain optimistic about the company’s future by assigning a price target of close to $60, which represents upward potential of more than 35% based on the last traded share price of $42.34 (June 1st).</p>\n<p>Founded in 2014, NIO has sold and delivered more than 100,000 vehicles in China to date. The company boasts a fleet of five emission-free, fully battery-powered models, ranging from sports cars to luxury sedans and full-size SUVs. In addition to their vehicles, NIO is also known for their significant progress achieved in innovative technology, including state-of-the-art battery solutions, artificial intelligence, and autonomous driving. The company has also recently turned their global expansion plans into reality, with the first overseas NIO store to open in Oslo, Norway in Q3 2021. We believe that reaching a share price of $100 is no longer a question of “if”, but instead, “when”.</p>\n<p><b>A Trailblazer in Innovative Technology</b></p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/16d9fd877602d5604bc3a69593badfdf\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"262\"><span>Source:ir.nio.com</span></p>\n<p>NIO has continuously exhibited characteristics of an unsettling innovator. The brand is widely known for their breakthrough in battery swapping technology, “Power Swap”, which provides NIO owners with a fast and convenient solution to concerns over the typically limited travel range of EVs. Similar to a gas station, Power Swap is a battery swapping station that can swap a dead battery out for a fully charged one in under three minutes; a fully charged battery enables a NIO vehicle to travel up to 435 miles, which is more than double of the 181-mile average travel range of electric vehicles currently available on the market. NIO owners have the option to subscribe to the“Battery as a Service” (“BaaS”)package, which is a monthly subscription service that provides NIO owners with flexible options for battery upgrades based on personal needs. The company currently offers a standard 75 kWh battery which enables a travel range of up to 310 miles on a full charge, and an enhanced 100 kWh battery which enables a travel range of up to 435 miles on a full charge; both are available for NIO owners to choose from on a month-to-month basis under BaaS. To date, there are more than 226 battery swapping stations across China, with more on the way following a recent strategic partnership agreement between NIO and Sinopec. NIO’s vehicles are also compatible with local competitor XPeng’s(NYSE:XPEV)1,140 vehicle charging stations available across 164 cities in China, which further enhances its existing network of charging infrastructure in place for NIO owners.</p>\n<p>In addition to the developed network of infrastructure needed to sustain NIO EVs in the long run, the company has also been working diligently on perfecting their autonomous driving and AI technology in order to remain competitive in the broader EV and tech space. NIO has already been performing testing on its autonomous driving systems since 2016, with their first testing on public roads in Beijing performed in 2018. The company’s commitment to the future of passenger transportation is also proven through their development of EVE, the brand’s concept car for autonomous driving which encompasses a luxurious, comfortable and safe experience powered by NIO’s NOMI AI, the world’s first in-vehicle artificial intelligence.</p>\n<p>To further enhance their progress in autonomous driving technology, NIO has recently partnered with Mobileye – an Intel-owned(NASDAQ:INTC)company known for developing the “EyeQ chip” currently used by more than 27 car manufacturers for their assisted-driving technologies – to develop and commercialize driving automation that does not require human interaction (i.e. “level 4” autonomous driving). Their collaboration is expected to accelerate NIO’s launch of the “Autonomous Driving as a Service” (“ADaaS”) package, which is a monthly subscription for their autonomous driving technology, “NIO Autonomous Driving” (“NAD”). However, similar to Tesla’s “Full Self-Driving” package, the NAD technology that is expected to launch in 2022 does not yet make NIO vehicles capable of driving without human intervention, but it does catapult NIO to a comparable spot with industry leader Tesla in the race towards level 4 autonomous driving. NIO owners will have the option to subscribe to ADaaS for a monthly subscription fee of RMB 680. With more than 102,000 NIO vehicles on the road today, the new subscription package is expected to generate incremental annual sales of RMB 840 million ($132 million); the additional revenue stream is valued at approximately RMB 10 billion ($1.6 billion) upon the service’s inception, assuming an average vehicle life of 12 years with most existing NIO owners signing up.</p>\n<p>NIO’s continuous developments in autonomous driving technology are expected to benefit the company and its shareholders greatly in the near future. By 2025, the global autonomous cars market will become one of the fastest growing and most highly demanded segments with an estimated value of $1.6 trillion. A 6% share of this market would add a valuation of at least $100 billion to NIO’s existing $67 billion market cap, boosting its per unit share value to more than $100. Considering NIO is currently one of the very few fully electric automakers to have achieved tangible results within the autonomous driving scene, and is actively growing its overseas sales, we are confident that the company is capable of capturing more than 6% of the said market share, and achieve a per unit share price of more than $100 by 2025 with ease. Combined with the global shift in consumer preference towards electrification and automation, we are projecting vehicle sales of approximately 300,000 units by FY 2025, which will yield total revenues of approximately RMB 140 billion ($22 billion).</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b6c800a04e6df92802f6893d214eecdd\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"213\"><span>Source: Author, with data from our internal forecasts (NIO_-_Forecasted_Financial_Information.pdf).</span></p>\n<p><b>Global Expansion</b></p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/537449f8f7ee9c736b48c1776cbb7259\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"249\"><span>Source: ir.nio.com</span></p>\n<p>Another catalyst that will propel NIO’s share price beyond $100 is their ongoing overseas expansion efforts. NIO has been transparent about their intentions to expand globally, especially in the U.S. and Europe, as part of their plans in becoming an industry leader. NIO will be opening its first overseas sales and service centre in Oslo, Norway in September. The brand’s footprint in Norway will further expand in 2022 with four more NIO stores to open in Bergen, Stavanger, Trondheim and Kristiansand. In addition to its direct sales and service centres, NIO will also be introducing a full charging map for Europe, starting with four NIO Power Swap stations in Norway to provide new NIO owners with the convenience and range that the brand builds its success on. NIO’s flagship SUV, the ES8, which currently retails at a starting price of approximately US$67,000, will be the first model introduced in the European market, with the brand’s newest full-size sedan, the ET7, to follow in 2022.</p>\n<p>With a proven sales track record in China’s luxury EV market, and specs comparable to the globally recognized Tesla, there is no reason for NIO to not succeed overseas. As mentioned in earlier sections, NIO’s vehicles have a driving range of up to 435 miles on a full charge, making it a desirable choice for potential European and American car owners looking for a reliable companion to accompany them on daily commutes to long road trips. The NIO exterior and interior designs are also modern, luxurious, and comparable to those preferred by the European and North American population. Combined with a diverse product line and price range, NIO is equipped to take on the increasing demands for EVs on a global scale.</p>\n<p><b>NIO’s Historical Performance</b></p>\n<p>Just a little more than a year ago, NIO’s share price hit an all-time low at under $2 amidst liquidity troubles despite continued vehicle sales. In mid-2020, the municipal government of Hefei, China came to NIO’s rescue with a capital injection of RMB 7 billion (approximately $1 billion). The arrangement resulted in the creation of “NIO China”, which serves as the operating entity that holds all of NIO’s core businesses and assets; NIO currently holds a 90.36% ownership interest in NIO China, while the “Hefei Strategic Investors” consortium holds the remainder 9.64%. The partnership became the company’s lifeline; the additional capital brought forth significant improvements to the company’s operations and vehicle sales, which were reflected in their strong financial performance and upward trend in share price in the summer of 2020. By the end of 2020’s second quarter, NIO’s share price rebounded by almost 20% on average after posting a 171% quarter-over-quarter increase in total revenues. The company’s share price more than tripled in 2020’s third quarter, averaging $15.40, and continued to climb towards its fourth quarter average of $38.70. By the end of the latest quarter ended March 31st, 2021, NIO’s share price averaged $50.97, and peaked at almost $62 in February which is more than 10x its IPO price in 2018. The company holds a market cap of more than $67 billion today, outgrowing its mere $1 billion market cap when it made its debut on the NYSE.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/75a1d7edb18c1762028ba54f617e1982\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"250\"><span>Source: Author, with data from ir.nio.com</span></p>\n<p>NIO’s fundamentals have also shown nothing but steady improvements since its share price peaked earlier this year before the growth stock sell-off in late February. Deliveries in 2021 have continued to accelerate exponentially, with first quarter deliveries of more than 20,000 vehicles, representing almost 50% of total deliveries made in 2020. The company continues to exhibit a promising outlook with more than 7,100 vehicles delivered in April, representing an increase of more than 125% year-over-year. NIO has also maintained positive cash flows from operating activities for the first quarter of 2021, thanks to the higher deliveries and effective cost-management measures which have amped up their gross profit margin to 19.5%, comparable with industry leaders like Tesla whose first quarter gross margins were 21%. As aforementioned, we are forecasting vehicle sales of close to 300,000 units by FY 2025, which translates to approximately RMB 140 billion ($22 billion) in total revenues ($18.60 per share). Our vehicle sales forecast for FY 2025 is further corroborated by the recently renewed manufacturing agreement with joint venturer “Jianghuai Automobile Group” (“JAC”), which increases the current annual production capacity of 100,000 units to 240,000 units; the ongoing construction of “NeoPark” in Hefei, China is also expected to add annual production capacity of 1 million units, which further supports our positive outlook on NIO’s continued commitment to grow its business. Considering industry peer Tesla’s current P/S ratio of 16.43x with approximately $42 billion in annual revenues (annualization of $10.389 billion in first quarter revenues), the same proportion applied to NIO’s forecasted FY 2025 total revenues is expected to yield a P/S ratio of 8.7x, resulting in a share price of more than $160.</p>\n<p><b>NIO vs. LI and XPEV</b></p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/af8fa939f92be448d1f427a6ac4bfb25\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"352\"><span>Source: Finviz</span></p>\n<p>We have also compared NIO’s current P/S ratio to its domestic peers to gauge the timeline in which NIO’s share price will exceed $100. NIO currently trades at a P/S ratio of approximately 14.88x, while domestic industry peers, Li Auto(NASDAQ:LI)and XPEV, currently trade at a P/S ratio of 14.46x and 21.31x, respectively.</p>\n<p>Considering NIO’s technology, revenues, global footprint, and cash flows are stronger than LI’s and XPEV’s, the former deserves to be traded at a much higher multiple than the latter two. Even if NIO reaches a P/S ratio of 18.1x (mid-point to XPEV's), it will drive the company’s current share price up to $51.50, which represents an upside potential of 22% based on the last traded share price of $42.34 (June 1st). And based on our forecasted revenues for FY 2025 for NIO of RMB 140 billion ($22 billion), or $18.60 per share, even a multiple half of the 18.1x would be more than sufficient to bring NIO's share price beyond $160 by 2025; we believe the trading multiple is achievable for NIO given the cash from operations and technological advancements achieved by then would place them on a trajectory of continued long-term growth within the EV industry, which is expected to continue into 2030 and beyond when the brand's level 4 autonomous driving technology development is complete and commercialized.</p>\n<p><b>Business Risks and Challenges</b></p>\n<p>As mentioned in one of my previous articles on NIO, the “Holding Foreign Companies Accountable Act” (“HFCA Act”) remains one of the most significant impending threats to the company’s share price. Currently, public accounting firms in China are non-compliant with PCAOB inspection rules required by the SEC, and the enactment of the HFCA Act in December 2020 requires that these public accounting firms comply with PCAOB inspection requests within three years of the enactment date; otherwise, all public companies audited by said firms will be subject to risks of de-listing. NIO is currently audited by PricewaterhouseCoopers Zhong Tian LLP, which is on PCAOB’s denied-access list. The potential threat of being delisted from the NYSE could be a deterrence factor to investors and ultimately hemorrhage NIO’s share price in the long run if Chinese authorities and the PCAOB cannot reach an agreement on conducting inspections soon.</p>\n<p>Another imminent challenge to NIO’s business is the ongoing global chip supply shortage. As the automotive industry becomes more dependent on chips to manage every function of their vehicles, the gap between automaker demands and chip manufacturer supplies is widened. NIO was no exception to the impacts of the ongoing chip supply crisis – in March 2021, NIO halted their production activity at the JAC-NIO manufacturing plant for five working days in order to adjust their production levels. However, the company continues to effectively navigate through the situation as proven through their increasing number of deliveries month-over-month; in NIO’s latest delivery update press release for April, the company has continued to keep up with market demand with more than 7,100 vehicle deliveries made, representing a 125% year-over-year growth.</p>\n<p>Competition within the EV sector has also ramped up in recent years. Consumer attitude towards EVs has changed drastically in the past decade due to rising concerns over climate change met with price parity between traditional petrol-fueled vehicles and EVs. The entry barrier for emerging EV makers has also lowered significantly as car battery solutions become more accessible through third-party OEMs; new entrants are now keener on participating in the profitable opportunity within the growing EV sector as initial investments become more reasonable than it was for Tesla in 2003 when EVs were still just a concept to many. In addition to new entrants, traditional petrol-fueled automakers like Ford(NYSE:F)have also started to incorporate fully battery-powered vehicles into their fleet in order to meet evolving consumer demands and remain competitive within the automotive industry. However, we believe NIO possesses the brand, customer experience, production strategy, talent and business model (further analyzedhere) needed to remain successful within the new competitive landscape in the long run.</p>\n<p><b>Conclusion</b></p>\n<p>NIO has already established a strong brand presence within the domestic Chinese market, which is currently one of the fastest growing EV markets, representing more than 40% of global EV sales in 2020. Combined with their proven ability to produce quality EVs, construct innovative charging infrastructure, achieve breakthrough progress in the development of autonomous driving technology, and execute their overseas expansion strategy, NIO is effectively narrowing the gap between them and Tesla within the EV sector on a global scale. We are confident that the next five years will be a transformational era for the EV and tech company due to increasing demands for electrification and automation within the automotive industry, which NIO has already proven to excel in. The value of its continued achievements will be reflected in its share price in no time, making them a worthy stock pick for those looking to profit off of the impending age of green transition and automation.</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Can NIO Stock Reach $100? 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We Think It's A Matter Of 'When' Not 'If'\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-06-05 12:15 GMT+8 <a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4432901-nio-stock-reach-100><strong>seekingalpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Summary\n\nNIO's share price has soared by more than 816% in the past year, peaking at almost $62 in early February before the growth stock sell-off in early March.\nThe company's innovative approach and...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4432901-nio-stock-reach-100\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"NIO":"蔚来"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4432901-nio-stock-reach-100","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1148130971","content_text":"Summary\n\nNIO's share price has soared by more than 816% in the past year, peaking at almost $62 in early February before the growth stock sell-off in early March.\nThe company's innovative approach and overseas expansion strategy, combined with the growing market sentiment on global electrification and automation are expected to boost the company's valuation.\nWe believe NIO's share price will soar beyond $160 by 2025 as global EV sales continue to ramp up with autonomous driving becoming a reality.\n\nPhoto by Drew Angerer/Getty Images News via Getty Images\nDespite it being a local Chinese electric vehicle (“EV”) brand that has only recently started its overseas expansion into Europe, NIO(NYSE:NIO)has already garnered significant international attention amidst avid investors within the EV sector in recent years. It has only been three short years since NIO made its first deliveries in mid-2018, yet many are already wondering whether its share price can reach similar heights as an industry leader, Tesla’s(NASDAQ:TSLA). Albeit a little farfetched given Tesla is currently trading at more than $600 per share with a market cap of more than $600 billion, we do believe NIO has promising potential to break $100 per share before 2025. Even Wall Street Analysts remain optimistic about the company’s future by assigning a price target of close to $60, which represents upward potential of more than 35% based on the last traded share price of $42.34 (June 1st).\nFounded in 2014, NIO has sold and delivered more than 100,000 vehicles in China to date. The company boasts a fleet of five emission-free, fully battery-powered models, ranging from sports cars to luxury sedans and full-size SUVs. In addition to their vehicles, NIO is also known for their significant progress achieved in innovative technology, including state-of-the-art battery solutions, artificial intelligence, and autonomous driving. The company has also recently turned their global expansion plans into reality, with the first overseas NIO store to open in Oslo, Norway in Q3 2021. We believe that reaching a share price of $100 is no longer a question of “if”, but instead, “when”.\nA Trailblazer in Innovative Technology\nSource:ir.nio.com\nNIO has continuously exhibited characteristics of an unsettling innovator. The brand is widely known for their breakthrough in battery swapping technology, “Power Swap”, which provides NIO owners with a fast and convenient solution to concerns over the typically limited travel range of EVs. Similar to a gas station, Power Swap is a battery swapping station that can swap a dead battery out for a fully charged one in under three minutes; a fully charged battery enables a NIO vehicle to travel up to 435 miles, which is more than double of the 181-mile average travel range of electric vehicles currently available on the market. NIO owners have the option to subscribe to the“Battery as a Service” (“BaaS”)package, which is a monthly subscription service that provides NIO owners with flexible options for battery upgrades based on personal needs. The company currently offers a standard 75 kWh battery which enables a travel range of up to 310 miles on a full charge, and an enhanced 100 kWh battery which enables a travel range of up to 435 miles on a full charge; both are available for NIO owners to choose from on a month-to-month basis under BaaS. To date, there are more than 226 battery swapping stations across China, with more on the way following a recent strategic partnership agreement between NIO and Sinopec. NIO’s vehicles are also compatible with local competitor XPeng’s(NYSE:XPEV)1,140 vehicle charging stations available across 164 cities in China, which further enhances its existing network of charging infrastructure in place for NIO owners.\nIn addition to the developed network of infrastructure needed to sustain NIO EVs in the long run, the company has also been working diligently on perfecting their autonomous driving and AI technology in order to remain competitive in the broader EV and tech space. NIO has already been performing testing on its autonomous driving systems since 2016, with their first testing on public roads in Beijing performed in 2018. The company’s commitment to the future of passenger transportation is also proven through their development of EVE, the brand’s concept car for autonomous driving which encompasses a luxurious, comfortable and safe experience powered by NIO’s NOMI AI, the world’s first in-vehicle artificial intelligence.\nTo further enhance their progress in autonomous driving technology, NIO has recently partnered with Mobileye – an Intel-owned(NASDAQ:INTC)company known for developing the “EyeQ chip” currently used by more than 27 car manufacturers for their assisted-driving technologies – to develop and commercialize driving automation that does not require human interaction (i.e. “level 4” autonomous driving). Their collaboration is expected to accelerate NIO’s launch of the “Autonomous Driving as a Service” (“ADaaS”) package, which is a monthly subscription for their autonomous driving technology, “NIO Autonomous Driving” (“NAD”). However, similar to Tesla’s “Full Self-Driving” package, the NAD technology that is expected to launch in 2022 does not yet make NIO vehicles capable of driving without human intervention, but it does catapult NIO to a comparable spot with industry leader Tesla in the race towards level 4 autonomous driving. NIO owners will have the option to subscribe to ADaaS for a monthly subscription fee of RMB 680. With more than 102,000 NIO vehicles on the road today, the new subscription package is expected to generate incremental annual sales of RMB 840 million ($132 million); the additional revenue stream is valued at approximately RMB 10 billion ($1.6 billion) upon the service’s inception, assuming an average vehicle life of 12 years with most existing NIO owners signing up.\nNIO’s continuous developments in autonomous driving technology are expected to benefit the company and its shareholders greatly in the near future. By 2025, the global autonomous cars market will become one of the fastest growing and most highly demanded segments with an estimated value of $1.6 trillion. A 6% share of this market would add a valuation of at least $100 billion to NIO’s existing $67 billion market cap, boosting its per unit share value to more than $100. Considering NIO is currently one of the very few fully electric automakers to have achieved tangible results within the autonomous driving scene, and is actively growing its overseas sales, we are confident that the company is capable of capturing more than 6% of the said market share, and achieve a per unit share price of more than $100 by 2025 with ease. Combined with the global shift in consumer preference towards electrification and automation, we are projecting vehicle sales of approximately 300,000 units by FY 2025, which will yield total revenues of approximately RMB 140 billion ($22 billion).\nSource: Author, with data from our internal forecasts (NIO_-_Forecasted_Financial_Information.pdf).\nGlobal Expansion\nSource: ir.nio.com\nAnother catalyst that will propel NIO’s share price beyond $100 is their ongoing overseas expansion efforts. NIO has been transparent about their intentions to expand globally, especially in the U.S. and Europe, as part of their plans in becoming an industry leader. NIO will be opening its first overseas sales and service centre in Oslo, Norway in September. The brand’s footprint in Norway will further expand in 2022 with four more NIO stores to open in Bergen, Stavanger, Trondheim and Kristiansand. In addition to its direct sales and service centres, NIO will also be introducing a full charging map for Europe, starting with four NIO Power Swap stations in Norway to provide new NIO owners with the convenience and range that the brand builds its success on. NIO’s flagship SUV, the ES8, which currently retails at a starting price of approximately US$67,000, will be the first model introduced in the European market, with the brand’s newest full-size sedan, the ET7, to follow in 2022.\nWith a proven sales track record in China’s luxury EV market, and specs comparable to the globally recognized Tesla, there is no reason for NIO to not succeed overseas. As mentioned in earlier sections, NIO’s vehicles have a driving range of up to 435 miles on a full charge, making it a desirable choice for potential European and American car owners looking for a reliable companion to accompany them on daily commutes to long road trips. The NIO exterior and interior designs are also modern, luxurious, and comparable to those preferred by the European and North American population. Combined with a diverse product line and price range, NIO is equipped to take on the increasing demands for EVs on a global scale.\nNIO’s Historical Performance\nJust a little more than a year ago, NIO’s share price hit an all-time low at under $2 amidst liquidity troubles despite continued vehicle sales. In mid-2020, the municipal government of Hefei, China came to NIO’s rescue with a capital injection of RMB 7 billion (approximately $1 billion). The arrangement resulted in the creation of “NIO China”, which serves as the operating entity that holds all of NIO’s core businesses and assets; NIO currently holds a 90.36% ownership interest in NIO China, while the “Hefei Strategic Investors” consortium holds the remainder 9.64%. The partnership became the company’s lifeline; the additional capital brought forth significant improvements to the company’s operations and vehicle sales, which were reflected in their strong financial performance and upward trend in share price in the summer of 2020. By the end of 2020’s second quarter, NIO’s share price rebounded by almost 20% on average after posting a 171% quarter-over-quarter increase in total revenues. The company’s share price more than tripled in 2020’s third quarter, averaging $15.40, and continued to climb towards its fourth quarter average of $38.70. By the end of the latest quarter ended March 31st, 2021, NIO’s share price averaged $50.97, and peaked at almost $62 in February which is more than 10x its IPO price in 2018. The company holds a market cap of more than $67 billion today, outgrowing its mere $1 billion market cap when it made its debut on the NYSE.\nSource: Author, with data from ir.nio.com\nNIO’s fundamentals have also shown nothing but steady improvements since its share price peaked earlier this year before the growth stock sell-off in late February. Deliveries in 2021 have continued to accelerate exponentially, with first quarter deliveries of more than 20,000 vehicles, representing almost 50% of total deliveries made in 2020. The company continues to exhibit a promising outlook with more than 7,100 vehicles delivered in April, representing an increase of more than 125% year-over-year. NIO has also maintained positive cash flows from operating activities for the first quarter of 2021, thanks to the higher deliveries and effective cost-management measures which have amped up their gross profit margin to 19.5%, comparable with industry leaders like Tesla whose first quarter gross margins were 21%. As aforementioned, we are forecasting vehicle sales of close to 300,000 units by FY 2025, which translates to approximately RMB 140 billion ($22 billion) in total revenues ($18.60 per share). Our vehicle sales forecast for FY 2025 is further corroborated by the recently renewed manufacturing agreement with joint venturer “Jianghuai Automobile Group” (“JAC”), which increases the current annual production capacity of 100,000 units to 240,000 units; the ongoing construction of “NeoPark” in Hefei, China is also expected to add annual production capacity of 1 million units, which further supports our positive outlook on NIO’s continued commitment to grow its business. Considering industry peer Tesla’s current P/S ratio of 16.43x with approximately $42 billion in annual revenues (annualization of $10.389 billion in first quarter revenues), the same proportion applied to NIO’s forecasted FY 2025 total revenues is expected to yield a P/S ratio of 8.7x, resulting in a share price of more than $160.\nNIO vs. LI and XPEV\nSource: Finviz\nWe have also compared NIO’s current P/S ratio to its domestic peers to gauge the timeline in which NIO’s share price will exceed $100. NIO currently trades at a P/S ratio of approximately 14.88x, while domestic industry peers, Li Auto(NASDAQ:LI)and XPEV, currently trade at a P/S ratio of 14.46x and 21.31x, respectively.\nConsidering NIO’s technology, revenues, global footprint, and cash flows are stronger than LI’s and XPEV’s, the former deserves to be traded at a much higher multiple than the latter two. Even if NIO reaches a P/S ratio of 18.1x (mid-point to XPEV's), it will drive the company’s current share price up to $51.50, which represents an upside potential of 22% based on the last traded share price of $42.34 (June 1st). And based on our forecasted revenues for FY 2025 for NIO of RMB 140 billion ($22 billion), or $18.60 per share, even a multiple half of the 18.1x would be more than sufficient to bring NIO's share price beyond $160 by 2025; we believe the trading multiple is achievable for NIO given the cash from operations and technological advancements achieved by then would place them on a trajectory of continued long-term growth within the EV industry, which is expected to continue into 2030 and beyond when the brand's level 4 autonomous driving technology development is complete and commercialized.\nBusiness Risks and Challenges\nAs mentioned in one of my previous articles on NIO, the “Holding Foreign Companies Accountable Act” (“HFCA Act”) remains one of the most significant impending threats to the company’s share price. Currently, public accounting firms in China are non-compliant with PCAOB inspection rules required by the SEC, and the enactment of the HFCA Act in December 2020 requires that these public accounting firms comply with PCAOB inspection requests within three years of the enactment date; otherwise, all public companies audited by said firms will be subject to risks of de-listing. NIO is currently audited by PricewaterhouseCoopers Zhong Tian LLP, which is on PCAOB’s denied-access list. The potential threat of being delisted from the NYSE could be a deterrence factor to investors and ultimately hemorrhage NIO’s share price in the long run if Chinese authorities and the PCAOB cannot reach an agreement on conducting inspections soon.\nAnother imminent challenge to NIO’s business is the ongoing global chip supply shortage. As the automotive industry becomes more dependent on chips to manage every function of their vehicles, the gap between automaker demands and chip manufacturer supplies is widened. NIO was no exception to the impacts of the ongoing chip supply crisis – in March 2021, NIO halted their production activity at the JAC-NIO manufacturing plant for five working days in order to adjust their production levels. However, the company continues to effectively navigate through the situation as proven through their increasing number of deliveries month-over-month; in NIO’s latest delivery update press release for April, the company has continued to keep up with market demand with more than 7,100 vehicle deliveries made, representing a 125% year-over-year growth.\nCompetition within the EV sector has also ramped up in recent years. Consumer attitude towards EVs has changed drastically in the past decade due to rising concerns over climate change met with price parity between traditional petrol-fueled vehicles and EVs. The entry barrier for emerging EV makers has also lowered significantly as car battery solutions become more accessible through third-party OEMs; new entrants are now keener on participating in the profitable opportunity within the growing EV sector as initial investments become more reasonable than it was for Tesla in 2003 when EVs were still just a concept to many. In addition to new entrants, traditional petrol-fueled automakers like Ford(NYSE:F)have also started to incorporate fully battery-powered vehicles into their fleet in order to meet evolving consumer demands and remain competitive within the automotive industry. However, we believe NIO possesses the brand, customer experience, production strategy, talent and business model (further analyzedhere) needed to remain successful within the new competitive landscape in the long run.\nConclusion\nNIO has already established a strong brand presence within the domestic Chinese market, which is currently one of the fastest growing EV markets, representing more than 40% of global EV sales in 2020. Combined with their proven ability to produce quality EVs, construct innovative charging infrastructure, achieve breakthrough progress in the development of autonomous driving technology, and execute their overseas expansion strategy, NIO is effectively narrowing the gap between them and Tesla within the EV sector on a global scale. We are confident that the next five years will be a transformational era for the EV and tech company due to increasing demands for electrification and automation within the automotive industry, which NIO has already proven to excel in. The value of its continued achievements will be reflected in its share price in no time, making them a worthy stock pick for those looking to profit off of the impending age of green transition and automation.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":521,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":112584165,"gmtCreate":1622887021557,"gmtModify":1631893528878,"author":{"id":"3582101588853029","authorId":"3582101588853029","name":"yooniique","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/20d8b8e7a747237d1216fd5a0d6f3278","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":" 發發發","listText":" 發發發","text":"發發發","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/112584165","repostId":"1148130971","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":521,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}
