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XiaoHui_0906
2021-07-22
[财迷] [财迷] [财迷]
抱歉,原内容已删除
XiaoHui_0906
2021-07-21
我觉得这个可以🈶️
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XiaoHui_0906
2021-07-20
牛逼[笑哭]
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XiaoHui_0906
2021-07-20
Lublin😍
“一哥”张坤罕见反思:未来五年赚钱更难
XiaoHui_0906
2021-07-20
Juju😍
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[财迷] [财迷] ","listText":"[财迷] [财迷] [财迷] ","text":"[财迷] [财迷] [财迷]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/172210301","repostId":"2153324647","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":430,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":178552644,"gmtCreate":1626828848588,"gmtModify":1633770639866,"author":{"id":"3582006747349058","authorId":"3582006747349058","name":"XiaoHui_0906","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3582006747349058","idStr":"3582006747349058"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"我觉得这个可以🈶️","listText":"我觉得这个可以🈶️","text":"我觉得这个可以🈶️","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/178552644","repostId":"2153949316","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":679,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":178309879,"gmtCreate":1626786571991,"gmtModify":1633771069570,"author":{"id":"3582006747349058","authorId":"3582006747349058","name":"XiaoHui_0906","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3582006747349058","idStr":"3582006747349058"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"牛逼[笑哭] ","listText":"牛逼[笑哭] ","text":"牛逼[笑哭]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/178309879","repostId":"1163125570","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":535,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":171440659,"gmtCreate":1626759389571,"gmtModify":1633771281189,"author":{"id":"3582006747349058","authorId":"3582006747349058","name":"XiaoHui_0906","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3582006747349058","idStr":"3582006747349058"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Lublin😍","listText":"Lublin😍","text":"Lublin😍","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/171440659","repostId":"1100583093","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1100583093","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"追踪全球财经热点,精选影响您财富的资讯,投资理财必备神器!","home_visible":1,"media_name":"华尔街见闻","id":"1084101182","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/66809d1f5c2e43e2bdf15820c6d6897e"},"pubTimestamp":1626758309,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1100583093?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-07-20 13:18","market":"sh","language":"zh","title":"“一哥”张坤罕见反思:未来五年赚钱更难","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1100583093","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"7月20日凌晨,易方达、广发等基金陆续披露旗下基金二季报,张坤、萧楠、刘格菘等明星基金经理的最新持仓变动也随之曝光。\n他们的投资组合做了哪些调整?如何看待过去一段时间互联网、教育股的回调和猪价的下跌?","content":"<p>7月20日凌晨,易方达、广发等基金陆续披露旗下基金二季报,张坤、萧楠、刘格菘等明星基金经理的最新持仓变动也随之曝光。</p>\n<p>他们的投资组合做了哪些调整?如何看待过去一段时间互联网、教育股的回调和猪价的下跌?</p>\n<p><b>01</b></p>\n<p><b>张坤罕见“反思”</b></p>\n<p><b>未来几年回报下降难以避免</b></p>\n<p>年初市场回调时,有人创造出 “快逃”的表情包。二季报显示,张坤和他的基民都没有“跑”。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/635934407b37961d39c73cbe12e0623d\" tg-width=\"119\" tg-height=\"76\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>截至二季度末,张坤的管理规模达到1344.78亿元,较上季度末的1331.09亿元略有增加。</p>\n<p><b>在反思自己过往的投资过程,他“发现有不少错误”,同时感慨未来投资之难。</b></p>\n<p>他指出,疫情后,随着全球流动性的放松,全球股市都有了显著上涨。对于一些公司,在各种假设都兑现的情况下,可能未来 5 年能赚取贴现率或者比贴现率略高的收益率水平,但是<b>一旦错误,可能就要面临30%甚至50%的股价下跌。</b></p>\n<p><b>未来几年,不少行业面临的竞争程度恐怕比过去 5 年更为激烈,未来5年行业竞争格局的判断难度恐怕只增不减。</b>如果正确,可能只获得一个平庸的回报率,但一旦错误,却面临不小的损失。</p>\n<p>“我经常这样审视组合,如果股市暂停,5 年后恢复交易,每个企业能带来多少的预期复合收益率,<b>从目前的判断来看,未来几年预期回报率下降可能是难以避免的。</b>”张坤在季报中表示。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/50b85481b6cde0aa5f5a91da45033c97\" tg-width=\"669\" tg-height=\"767\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p><b>02</b></p>\n<p><b>张坤减持<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/000858\">五粮液</a>茅台<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TAL\">好未来</a>,增仓<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00700\">腾讯</a>邮储</b></p>\n<p>对比2021年一季报,张坤旗下4只产品的股票仓位均在二季度有不同程度的下降。</p>\n<p>其中,<b>易方达中小盘的股票仓位下降幅度最大</b>,其股票市值占基金资产净值比例从一季度末的94.58%大幅降低至71.07%左右,下降了约24个百分点。</p>\n<p><b>这也是张坤管理的易方达中小盘基金期间,季末股票仓位最低的一次,仅次于2017年中报的72.19%。</b></p>\n<p>易方达蓝筹股票仓位约降低2个百分点左右,易方达亚洲精选、易方达优质企业仓位约降低4-5个百分点之间。这3只基金股票仓位均在9成上下。</p>\n<p>二季度,部分重仓股回调,显然对张坤颇有触动。总体来看,张坤对于重仓的计算机和消费品行业的看法较为犹豫,对于银行、地产、电子、医药等行业的看法较为乐观。</p>\n<p>从具体的持仓看,<b>易方达亚洲精选的重仓组合也显示,好未来、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/EDU\">新东方</a>、STAAR Surgical Co退出前十大重仓股</b>,中国邮政储蓄银行、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00688\">中国海外发展</a>有限公司、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/VIPS\">唯品会</a>新入前十大重仓股。</p>\n<p>对此,张坤在易方达亚洲精选中特别提到,<b>二季度,教培企业受政策预期影响股价跌幅较大,对基金净值产生了一定的负面影响,这也使他反思长期投资框架中的一些假设,希望能够将其进一步完善。</b></p>\n<p>易方达中小盘十大重仓股保持不变,重点增持了<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600570\">恒生电子</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/002007\">华兰生物</a>、重点减持了前期涨幅巨大的<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600763\">通策医疗</a>、茅台、五粮液。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/072a6f03ba48e67f484c88af03c90da0\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"249\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>易方达蓝筹2季报前十大重仓股中,对比1季报,<b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/300015\">爱尔眼科</a>为新入十大重仓股者</b>,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/000001\">平安银行</a>则退出前十大。不过,2020年4季报时,爱尔眼科亦在易方达蓝筹前十大重仓股,此次现身与当时持股数量变化亦不算大。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0a39090f4f108246e7c600c4ba28cd96\" tg-width=\"598\" tg-height=\"323\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/af077204d412ddabad74578a87b1942c\" tg-width=\"604\" tg-height=\"78\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>易方达优质企业前十大重仓股信息显示,爱尔眼科、平安银行新入前十大重仓股,华兰生物、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/01951\">锦欣生殖</a>则退出前十大重仓股。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1e29a92a03c39520257974a13d307451\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"249\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p><b>03</b></p>\n<p><b>刘格菘增配“全球比较优势”制造业</b></p>\n<p>在广发小盘2季报中,刘格菘强调,他二季度集中调研了光伏产业链、动力电池、化工新材料、面板等具备“全球比较优势”特征的中国制造业上市公司,<b>仍然认为这类制造业资产的盈利预计能够保持比较长的景气周期,而且这类制造业资产的估值扩张并没有脱离景气区间,相当一部分资产还具备较高的性价比。</b></p>\n<p>二季度,该基金进一步提高了具有“全球比较优势”的制造业的配置比例。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/51323b149b079c0698e47f8fff7b72be\" tg-width=\"554\" tg-height=\"192\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>持仓变动方面,该基金在第二季度增持了356.65万股<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/601012\">隆基股份</a>,合计持有1800.15万股,公司股价近期从年后大跌的“坑”里走了出来并创下历史新高,二季度涨幅达41.66%,因此基金持有其市值达15.99亿元,占净值比例达10.86%,为其第一重仓股。</p>\n<p>此外,<b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/300347\">泰格医药</a>退出前十大重仓股,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/601127\">小康股份</a>新入前十大重仓股。</b></p>\n<p>此前公告就会发现,广发小盘参与了小康股份非公开发行股票的认购。这部分流通受限的股票占基金资产净值比约1.68%。</p>\n<p>而2季报显示,小康股份占净值比约4.58%。也就是说,在2季度,除了参与定增,刘格菘也在二级市场买入了小康股份。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7660d1a035fd3f8e3bc6be39aec16dc3\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p>\n<p>小康股份年初股价在15元左右,6月份盘中一度超83元,涨幅超450%。随后股价有所回调,7月20日中午收盘报65.75元。</p>\n<p><b>04</b></p>\n<p><b>萧楠大举增持<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600036\">招商银行</a></b></p>\n<p>萧楠管理的易方达科顺定开披露2季报显示,该基金截至二季度末的股票仓位为90.98%,相比一季度末的89.53%略有提升。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7e35704160d45b51330886e3bd3a3906\" tg-width=\"553\" tg-height=\"180\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>年内白酒股分化较大,<b>从萧楠的持仓来看,十大重仓股中仍有6只白酒股。从第一第二大重仓股看,表现相对弱势的五粮液并未减持,而上半年涨超19%的<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600809\">山西汾酒</a>反而持股数有所减少</b>。</p>\n<p><b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/03968\">招商银行</a>的新入,或许是萧楠提到的大幅增持了银行板块的体现之一</b>。2季报显示,招商银行占净值比约6%,一举成为第7大重仓股。</p>\n<p>此外,<b>他继续加大了对养殖板块的投资,但从效果看并不理想</b>——猪价的下跌超出之前的预期,但他并不担心相关标的的长期空间,相反,每一次行业低谷,都是优质企业扩张、竞争对手停滞倒退的弯道。</p>\n<p>去年他布局的一些低估值标的业绩表现一般,其中的原因除了市场风格,<b>更多的是公司本身摆脱现有困境的努力还没有出现预期效果。</b>好在,在这类标的的仓位并不多。过多的左侧投资的确会严重降低投资效率,因此二季度他适当做出了调整,将这类公司替换成估值同样便宜但更具备新增长动力的公司。</p>\n<p>而其他的板块调整从十大重仓股看并不明显,或许要等半年报给出更详细的信息。</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>“一哥”张坤罕见反思:未来五年赚钱更难</title>\n<style 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margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n“一哥”张坤罕见反思:未来五年赚钱更难\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n2021-07-20 13:18 北京时间 <strong>华尔街见闻</strong>\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>7月20日凌晨,易方达、广发等基金陆续披露旗下基金二季报,张坤、萧楠、刘格菘等明星基金经理的最新持仓变动也随之曝光。\n他们的投资组合做了哪些调整?如何看待过去一段时间互联网、教育股的回调和猪价的下跌?\n01\n张坤罕见“反思”\n未来几年回报下降难以避免\n年初市场回调时,有人创造出 “快逃”的表情包。二季报显示,张坤和他的基民都没有“跑”。\n\n截至二季度末,张坤的管理规模达到1344.78亿元,较上...</p>\n\n<a href=\"None\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5d8fb95e65f042f352c6313989391357","relate_stocks":{"399001":"深证成指","399006":"创业板指","000001.SH":"上证指数"},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1100583093","content_text":"7月20日凌晨,易方达、广发等基金陆续披露旗下基金二季报,张坤、萧楠、刘格菘等明星基金经理的最新持仓变动也随之曝光。\n他们的投资组合做了哪些调整?如何看待过去一段时间互联网、教育股的回调和猪价的下跌?\n01\n张坤罕见“反思”\n未来几年回报下降难以避免\n年初市场回调时,有人创造出 “快逃”的表情包。二季报显示,张坤和他的基民都没有“跑”。\n\n截至二季度末,张坤的管理规模达到1344.78亿元,较上季度末的1331.09亿元略有增加。\n在反思自己过往的投资过程,他“发现有不少错误”,同时感慨未来投资之难。\n他指出,疫情后,随着全球流动性的放松,全球股市都有了显著上涨。对于一些公司,在各种假设都兑现的情况下,可能未来 5 年能赚取贴现率或者比贴现率略高的收益率水平,但是一旦错误,可能就要面临30%甚至50%的股价下跌。\n未来几年,不少行业面临的竞争程度恐怕比过去 5 年更为激烈,未来5年行业竞争格局的判断难度恐怕只增不减。如果正确,可能只获得一个平庸的回报率,但一旦错误,却面临不小的损失。\n“我经常这样审视组合,如果股市暂停,5 年后恢复交易,每个企业能带来多少的预期复合收益率,从目前的判断来看,未来几年预期回报率下降可能是难以避免的。”张坤在季报中表示。\n\n02\n张坤减持五粮液茅台好未来,增仓腾讯邮储\n对比2021年一季报,张坤旗下4只产品的股票仓位均在二季度有不同程度的下降。\n其中,易方达中小盘的股票仓位下降幅度最大,其股票市值占基金资产净值比例从一季度末的94.58%大幅降低至71.07%左右,下降了约24个百分点。\n这也是张坤管理的易方达中小盘基金期间,季末股票仓位最低的一次,仅次于2017年中报的72.19%。\n易方达蓝筹股票仓位约降低2个百分点左右,易方达亚洲精选、易方达优质企业仓位约降低4-5个百分点之间。这3只基金股票仓位均在9成上下。\n二季度,部分重仓股回调,显然对张坤颇有触动。总体来看,张坤对于重仓的计算机和消费品行业的看法较为犹豫,对于银行、地产、电子、医药等行业的看法较为乐观。\n从具体的持仓看,易方达亚洲精选的重仓组合也显示,好未来、新东方、STAAR Surgical Co退出前十大重仓股,中国邮政储蓄银行、中国海外发展有限公司、唯品会新入前十大重仓股。\n对此,张坤在易方达亚洲精选中特别提到,二季度,教培企业受政策预期影响股价跌幅较大,对基金净值产生了一定的负面影响,这也使他反思长期投资框架中的一些假设,希望能够将其进一步完善。\n易方达中小盘十大重仓股保持不变,重点增持了恒生电子、华兰生物、重点减持了前期涨幅巨大的通策医疗、茅台、五粮液。\n\n易方达蓝筹2季报前十大重仓股中,对比1季报,爱尔眼科为新入十大重仓股者,平安银行则退出前十大。不过,2020年4季报时,爱尔眼科亦在易方达蓝筹前十大重仓股,此次现身与当时持股数量变化亦不算大。\n\n易方达优质企业前十大重仓股信息显示,爱尔眼科、平安银行新入前十大重仓股,华兰生物、锦欣生殖则退出前十大重仓股。\n\n03\n刘格菘增配“全球比较优势”制造业\n在广发小盘2季报中,刘格菘强调,他二季度集中调研了光伏产业链、动力电池、化工新材料、面板等具备“全球比较优势”特征的中国制造业上市公司,仍然认为这类制造业资产的盈利预计能够保持比较长的景气周期,而且这类制造业资产的估值扩张并没有脱离景气区间,相当一部分资产还具备较高的性价比。\n二季度,该基金进一步提高了具有“全球比较优势”的制造业的配置比例。\n\n持仓变动方面,该基金在第二季度增持了356.65万股隆基股份,合计持有1800.15万股,公司股价近期从年后大跌的“坑”里走了出来并创下历史新高,二季度涨幅达41.66%,因此基金持有其市值达15.99亿元,占净值比例达10.86%,为其第一重仓股。\n此外,泰格医药退出前十大重仓股,小康股份新入前十大重仓股。\n此前公告就会发现,广发小盘参与了小康股份非公开发行股票的认购。这部分流通受限的股票占基金资产净值比约1.68%。\n而2季报显示,小康股份占净值比约4.58%。也就是说,在2季度,除了参与定增,刘格菘也在二级市场买入了小康股份。\n\n小康股份年初股价在15元左右,6月份盘中一度超83元,涨幅超450%。随后股价有所回调,7月20日中午收盘报65.75元。\n04\n萧楠大举增持招商银行\n萧楠管理的易方达科顺定开披露2季报显示,该基金截至二季度末的股票仓位为90.98%,相比一季度末的89.53%略有提升。\n\n年内白酒股分化较大,从萧楠的持仓来看,十大重仓股中仍有6只白酒股。从第一第二大重仓股看,表现相对弱势的五粮液并未减持,而上半年涨超19%的山西汾酒反而持股数有所减少。\n招商银行的新入,或许是萧楠提到的大幅增持了银行板块的体现之一。2季报显示,招商银行占净值比约6%,一举成为第7大重仓股。\n此外,他继续加大了对养殖板块的投资,但从效果看并不理想——猪价的下跌超出之前的预期,但他并不担心相关标的的长期空间,相反,每一次行业低谷,都是优质企业扩张、竞争对手停滞倒退的弯道。\n去年他布局的一些低估值标的业绩表现一般,其中的原因除了市场风格,更多的是公司本身摆脱现有困境的努力还没有出现预期效果。好在,在这类标的的仓位并不多。过多的左侧投资的确会严重降低投资效率,因此二季度他适当做出了调整,将这类公司替换成估值同样便宜但更具备新增长动力的公司。\n而其他的板块调整从十大重仓股看并不明显,或许要等半年报给出更详细的信息。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":253,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":171440339,"gmtCreate":1626759345321,"gmtModify":1633771281433,"author":{"id":"3582006747349058","authorId":"3582006747349058","name":"XiaoHui_0906","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3582006747349058","idStr":"3582006747349058"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Juju😍","listText":"Juju😍","text":"Juju😍","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/171440339","repostId":"2152502996","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":129,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":172210301,"gmtCreate":1626962043603,"gmtModify":1633769342843,"author":{"id":"3582006747349058","authorId":"3582006747349058","name":"XiaoHui_0906","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3582006747349058","authorIdStr":"3582006747349058"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"[财迷] 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