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GenieWong
2021-05-19
。。。。
开盘：美股三大股指全线低开，区块链板块暴跌
GenieWong
2021-05-14
危机中寻找转机
抱歉，原内容已删除
GenieWong
2021-05-14
进入熊势，虽然严重亏损，但也未必不是个机会，只是谁能预估得出几时才能走出熊境，必须在走进牛市前抓得住机会。这可真难预估。
抱歉，原内容已删除
GenieWong
2021-05-06
现在全都在跌
恒指短线跳水，美团、腾讯控股领跌
GenieWong
2021-05-06
4月中旬我才学习投资股票...现在都不知从何下手了...
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GenieWong
2021-05-03
我也想买苹果，谁能告诉我目前苹果价在多少左右比较值得入股吗？
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GenieWong
2021-05-03
👍
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GenieWong
2021-05-03
我挺喜欢腾讯的
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GenieWong
2021-05-02
听听巴菲特的观点，获益良多
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去老虎APP查看更多动态
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。。。。","listText":" 。。。。","text":"。。。。","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/197373030","repostId":"1141135565","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1141135565","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据，旨在帮助投资者理解世界，做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1621431046,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1141135565?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-05-19 21:30","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"开盘：美股三大股指全线低开，区块链板块暴跌","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1141135565","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"5月19日，美股三大股指全线低开，道琼斯指数开盘下跌379.77点，跌幅1.11%，报33680.89点；标普500指数开盘下跌55.99点，跌幅1.36%，报4071.85点；纳斯达克综合指数开盘下","content":"<p>5月19日，美股三大股指全线低开，道琼斯指数开盘下跌379.77点，跌幅1.11%，报33680.89点；标普500指数开盘下跌55.99点，跌幅1.36%，报4071.85点；纳斯达克综合指数开盘下跌227.50点，跌幅1.71%，报13076.14点。</p><p>受比特币等加密货币集体跳水影响，区块链板块个股全线重挫，Marathon Patent跌15%、Riot Blockchain跌17%，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BTCM\">比特矿业</a>跌20%。</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">特斯拉</a>跌近5%，最低报548.3美元，创3月5日以来低位。</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/COIN\">Coinbase</a>跌超10%，比特币和以太坊日内重挫。</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JD\">京东</a>跌3.5%，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JD\">京东</a>集团第一季度营收同比增加39%。</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/VIPS\">唯品会</a>低开10%，第二季度营收预期不及市场预期。</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TGT\">塔吉特</a>涨3.5%，第一季度营收同比大幅增加。</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/YSG\">逸仙电商</a>倒跌10%，现报8.75美元。公司今日公布第一季度财报，其营收同比增长42.1%，亏损有所缩窄。</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>开盘：美股三大股指全线低开，区块链板块暴跌</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ 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#494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n开盘：美股三大股指全线低开，区块链板块暴跌\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2021-05-19 21:30</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>5月19日，美股三大股指全线低开，道琼斯指数开盘下跌379.77点，跌幅1.11%，报33680.89点；标普500指数开盘下跌55.99点，跌幅1.36%，报4071.85点；纳斯达克综合指数开盘下跌227.50点，跌幅1.71%，报13076.14点。</p><p>受比特币等加密货币集体跳水影响，区块链板块个股全线重挫，Marathon Patent跌15%、Riot Blockchain跌17%，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BTCM\">比特矿业</a>跌20%。</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">特斯拉</a>跌近5%，最低报548.3美元，创3月5日以来低位。</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/COIN\">Coinbase</a>跌超10%，比特币和以太坊日内重挫。</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JD\">京东</a>跌3.5%，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JD\">京东</a>集团第一季度营收同比增加39%。</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/VIPS\">唯品会</a>低开10%，第二季度营收预期不及市场预期。</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TGT\">塔吉特</a>涨3.5%，第一季度营收同比大幅增加。</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/YSG\">逸仙电商</a>倒跌10%，现报8.75美元。公司今日公布第一季度财报，其营收同比增长42.1%，亏损有所缩窄。</p>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ff6e3231d788a5a6d28cf7965385cc7f","relate_stocks":{"161125":"标普500","513500":"标普500ETF","DDM":"道指两倍做多ETF","OEF":"标普100指数ETF-iShares","SDS":"两倍做空标普500ETF","QQQ":"纳指100ETF","DOG":"道指反向ETF","JD":"京东","QID":"纳指两倍做空ETF",".DJI":"道琼斯","TQQQ":"纳指三倍做多ETF","COIN":"Coinbase Global, Inc.","SH":"标普500反向ETF",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","EBON":"亿邦国际","QNETCN":"纳斯达克中美互联网老虎指数","SDOW":"道指三倍做空ETF-ProShares","UPRO":"三倍做多标普500ETF","UDOW":"道指三倍做多ETF-ProShares","PSQ":"纳指反向ETF","IVV":"标普500指数ETF","QLD":"纳指两倍做多ETF","DXD":"道指两倍做空ETF","SSO":"两倍做多标普500ETF","09618":"京东集团-SW","OEX":"标普100","SQQQ":"纳指三倍做空ETF",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","CAN":"嘉楠科技"},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1141135565","content_text":"5月19日，美股三大股指全线低开，道琼斯指数开盘下跌379.77点，跌幅1.11%，报33680.89点；标普500指数开盘下跌55.99点，跌幅1.36%，报4071.85点；纳斯达克综合指数开盘下跌227.50点，跌幅1.71%，报13076.14点。受比特币等加密货币集体跳水影响，区块链板块个股全线重挫，Marathon Patent跌15%、Riot 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10:49","market":"other","language":"zh","title":"恒指短线跳水，美团、腾讯控股领跌","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1134797985","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"5月6日，恒指短线跳水，涨幅不足0.2%，美团-W、腾讯控股领跌；恒生科技指数转跌。疫苗股持续走弱，复星医药跌超23%，康希诺生物-B跌20%。","content":"<p>5月6日，恒指短线跳水，涨幅不足0.2%，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/03690\">美团-W</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00700\">腾讯控股</a>领跌；恒生科技指数转跌。疫苗股持续走弱，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/02196\">复星医药</a>跌超23%，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/06185\">康希诺生物-B</a>跌20%。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8803cfc6e649516a932aa4593ee2f18d\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/57dfd5a862aca1464b83959ed23acf90\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" 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style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2021-05-06 10:49</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>5月6日，恒指短线跳水，涨幅不足0.2%，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/03690\">美团-W</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00700\">腾讯控股</a>领跌；恒生科技指数转跌。疫苗股持续走弱，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/02196\">复星医药</a>跌超23%，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/06185\">康希诺生物-B</a>跌20%。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8803cfc6e649516a932aa4593ee2f18d\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/57dfd5a862aca1464b83959ed23acf90\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" 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14:11","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"“5月抛售，清空两手”？ 华尔街分析师似乎不这么看","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2132512485","media":"新浪财经综合","summary":"五月抛售？股市5-10月平均回报率不如前期，市场亦已在近期见顶，但策略师仍旧表示“季节性投资策略”是错误的。\n摘要\n\n 1．华尔街的格言“5月抛售，清空两手”指的是5月至10月期间，市场的平均表现不如","content":"<p>五月抛售？股市5-10月平均回报率不如前期，市场亦已在近期见顶，但策略师仍旧表示“季节性投资策略”是错误的。</p>\n<p><b>摘要</b></p>\n<blockquote>\n 1．华尔街的格言“5月抛售，清空两手”指的是5月至10月期间，市场的平均表现不如前六个月。2．策略师表示，这并不意味着投资者应在5月撤出市场，并在年底重返市场。每年都不一样，留在市场上的钱有更好的回报。3．一位策略师表示，任何结尾押韵的句子所概括的投资策略都可能是糟糕的策略。但另一位技术人员认为，市场已见顶，这意味着5月和未来几个月可能会很艰难。\n</blockquote>\n<p>今年，“5月抛售，清空两手”的策略在华尔街不怎么受欢迎。</p>\n<p>市场专业人士承认，历史清楚地显示，市场表现最强劲的六个月是11月至4月，但他们也说，这未必是决定投资者一年计划的一个因素。</p>\n<p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CS\">瑞士信贷</a>首席美国股市策略师Jonathan Golub表示：“任何结尾押韵的句子所概括的投资策略都可能是糟糕的策略。”基于成分股出色的财报表现，<b>Golub周五将年底标普500指数目标价从4300点上调至4600点。他说，平均而言，5月至10月之间的市场表现确实比较疲弱，但这不是出逃股市的理由。</b></p>\n<p>Golub说：“如果每个5月都和去年5月一样，这就完全合理了。但仅仅将今年与去年相比，你就会发现巨大的反差。去年5月，市场开始走出谷底，而当前的背景已经完全改变了，从去年深受疫情影响，到现在的经济繁荣和收入增长时期。”</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5d7ec75a6cf10ece29b0963a34dbcaea\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"304\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>“看看我们在这个财报季都收获了什么。美国公司业绩比预期高出22%——这个表现是前所未有的。这一数据是惊人的。”Golub预计第二季度美国公司的财报将更加强劲，这些财报将于7月份发布。</p>\n<p>Golub表示：“我不会在5月抛售，我也不会建议其他人这样做。在这样的市场中，你可能犯的最大错误是太天真，过早退出。你最好多待一会儿，而不是早走。”</p>\n<p><b>市场见顶？</b></p>\n<p><b>Cornerstone Macro的首席市场技术人员Carter Worth也认为，一般而言，投资者如果在5月撤出市场，并在10月之前一直不入场，将得不到很好的回报。但他预计，今年市场将进入一段疲弱期。除季节性因素外，他预计市场已见顶。</b></p>\n<p>Worth研究了季节性趋势，发现从去年11月1日到今年4月30日，道指27.8%的累计涨幅表现是自1896年以来第四强劲的六个月期表现。</p>\n<p>“在11月至4月连续六个月表现特别好后，接下来的六个月将表现平平，” Worth称。他补充说，但在股市强劲上涨之后的任何六个月，都可能出现这种情况。</p>\n<p>Worth表示，从11月到4月，道指前10年的平均涨幅为27.5%，而随后5月到10月的平均涨幅为2.9%。在11月到4月这以六个月为期限表现最好的10个年份里，全年的平均总收益为23.7%。</p>\n<p>根据Worth的分析，从1896年以来的所有年份来看，11月至4月道指平均回报率为5.2%，5月至10月平均回报率为2.1%。所有年份的平均表现是7.3%。</p>\n<p>尽管Worth预计市场已在近期见顶，但他认为季节性投资策略是错误的。他表示：“从1896年至2020年，前六个月的回报率高于后六个月。但大家都知道，到目前为止，最好的策略是年复一年地保持你在市场上的敞口。”</p>\n<p>根据Worth的计算与猜测，从1896年开始，投资者在11月到4月这段时间里投资100万美元，然后在5月到10月间套现，将获得1.644亿美元的回报。在最初的100万美元投资基础上，全年投资的投资者将获得6.726亿美元的回报。</p>\n<p><b>夏季反弹趋势</b></p>\n<p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BAC\">美国银行</a>技术研究策略师Stephen Suttmeier说，标普500指数5月至10月的季节性疲软模式也很明显，但自1928年以来，平均回报率有66%是正值的。</p>\n<p>他说，由于该指数这一六月期的平均正回报率也有2.2%，所以’5月卖出’策略还有许多不足之处。</p>\n<p>他的研究证实了夏季反弹的趋势，而5月至10月期间的下跌是“前轻后重”。</p>\n<p>他在一份报告中写道：“应该是‘5月买进，7/ 8月抛售’，而不是‘5月抛售，清空两手’。月度季节性特征表明，在强劲的4月卖出，在风险规避的5月买入，在7月至8月卖出，9月是一年中最疲软的一个月。”</p>\n<p>Suttmeier指出，在新总统任期的第一年，夏季涨势可能会更强劲，4月和7月市场表现强劲，但5月也会有稳健回报。他写道：“今年春夏季的反弹和秋季的回调会在总统任期第一年被放大，预计4-6月平均上涨5.5%，8-10月平均下跌2.4%。”</p>\n<p>CRFA首席投资策略师Sam Stovall也通过标普等权重500指数（S&P Equal Weight 500）的表现，观察了“5月抛售”现象。该指数给予每只股票相等的权重，而不是标普500指数的市值权重。截至4月30日，标普等权重500指数今年累计上涨了16.2%，是该指数1990年创建以来第三强劲的前四个月开局。</p>\n<p>Stovall在一份报告中写道：“投资者现在会问，这个未加权的美国大盘股指标是否走得太远、太快了。“</p>\n<p>他说，历史显示，这种早期的走势通常会在5月进入市场消化阶段。在今年最后三个月出现高于平均水平的涨幅之前，股市在9月份可能还会出现波动。</p>\n<p>Cornerstone Macro的Worth表示：“‘5月卖出离场’这句话来源于一句英语谚语——‘5月抛售，清空两手，圣莱杰日重抖擞’。圣莱杰节指的是圣莱杰赛马，一种在九月中旬举行的纯种马比赛。这一习俗指的是人们离开伦敦前往乡村，以躲避炎热的夏季。”</p>","source":"highlight_sina","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>“5月抛售，清空两手”？ 华尔街分析师似乎不这么看</title>\n<style 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margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n“5月抛售，清空两手”？ 华尔街分析师似乎不这么看\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-05-05 14:11 北京时间 <a href=https://finance.sina.com.cn/stock/usstock/c/2021-05-04/doc-ikmxzfmm0549269.shtml><strong>新浪财经综合</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>五月抛售？股市5-10月平均回报率不如前期，市场亦已在近期见顶，但策略师仍旧表示“季节性投资策略”是错误的。\n摘要\n\n 1．华尔街的格言“5月抛售，清空两手”指的是5月至10月期间，市场的平均表现不如前六个月。2．策略师表示，这并不意味着投资者应在5月撤出市场，并在年底重返市场。每年都不一样，留在市场上的钱有更好的回报。3．一位策略师表示，任何结尾押韵的句子所概括的投资策略都可能是糟糕的策略。但另...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://finance.sina.com.cn/stock/usstock/c/2021-05-04/doc-ikmxzfmm0549269.shtml\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c7da52addfd52fb216bcf87283f43750","relate_stocks":{"161125":"标普500","513500":"标普500ETF","SPXU":"三倍做空标普500ETF","OEF":"标普100指数ETF-iShares","SDS":"两倍做空标普500ETF","UPRO":"三倍做多标普500ETF","IVV":"标普500指数ETF","SSO":"两倍做多标普500ETF",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","OEX":"标普100","SH":"标普500反向ETF"},"source_url":"https://finance.sina.com.cn/stock/usstock/c/2021-05-04/doc-ikmxzfmm0549269.shtml","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/b0d1b7e8843deea78cc308b15114de44","article_id":"2132512485","content_text":"五月抛售？股市5-10月平均回报率不如前期，市场亦已在近期见顶，但策略师仍旧表示“季节性投资策略”是错误的。\n摘要\n\n 1．华尔街的格言“5月抛售，清空两手”指的是5月至10月期间，市场的平均表现不如前六个月。2．策略师表示，这并不意味着投资者应在5月撤出市场，并在年底重返市场。每年都不一样，留在市场上的钱有更好的回报。3．一位策略师表示，任何结尾押韵的句子所概括的投资策略都可能是糟糕的策略。但另一位技术人员认为，市场已见顶，这意味着5月和未来几个月可能会很艰难。\n\n今年，“5月抛售，清空两手”的策略在华尔街不怎么受欢迎。\n市场专业人士承认，历史清楚地显示，市场表现最强劲的六个月是11月至4月，但他们也说，这未必是决定投资者一年计划的一个因素。\n瑞士信贷首席美国股市策略师Jonathan Golub表示：“任何结尾押韵的句子所概括的投资策略都可能是糟糕的策略。”基于成分股出色的财报表现，Golub周五将年底标普500指数目标价从4300点上调至4600点。他说，平均而言，5月至10月之间的市场表现确实比较疲弱，但这不是出逃股市的理由。\nGolub说：“如果每个5月都和去年5月一样，这就完全合理了。但仅仅将今年与去年相比，你就会发现巨大的反差。去年5月，市场开始走出谷底，而当前的背景已经完全改变了，从去年深受疫情影响，到现在的经济繁荣和收入增长时期。”\n\n“看看我们在这个财报季都收获了什么。美国公司业绩比预期高出22%——这个表现是前所未有的。这一数据是惊人的。”Golub预计第二季度美国公司的财报将更加强劲，这些财报将于7月份发布。\nGolub表示：“我不会在5月抛售，我也不会建议其他人这样做。在这样的市场中，你可能犯的最大错误是太天真，过早退出。你最好多待一会儿，而不是早走。”\n市场见顶？\nCornerstone Macro的首席市场技术人员Carter Worth也认为，一般而言，投资者如果在5月撤出市场，并在10月之前一直不入场，将得不到很好的回报。但他预计，今年市场将进入一段疲弱期。除季节性因素外，他预计市场已见顶。\nWorth研究了季节性趋势，发现从去年11月1日到今年4月30日，道指27.8%的累计涨幅表现是自1896年以来第四强劲的六个月期表现。\n“在11月至4月连续六个月表现特别好后，接下来的六个月将表现平平，” Worth称。他补充说，但在股市强劲上涨之后的任何六个月，都可能出现这种情况。\nWorth表示，从11月到4月，道指前10年的平均涨幅为27.5%，而随后5月到10月的平均涨幅为2.9%。在11月到4月这以六个月为期限表现最好的10个年份里，全年的平均总收益为23.7%。\n根据Worth的分析，从1896年以来的所有年份来看，11月至4月道指平均回报率为5.2%，5月至10月平均回报率为2.1%。所有年份的平均表现是7.3%。\n尽管Worth预计市场已在近期见顶，但他认为季节性投资策略是错误的。他表示：“从1896年至2020年，前六个月的回报率高于后六个月。但大家都知道，到目前为止，最好的策略是年复一年地保持你在市场上的敞口。”\n根据Worth的计算与猜测，从1896年开始，投资者在11月到4月这段时间里投资100万美元，然后在5月到10月间套现，将获得1.644亿美元的回报。在最初的100万美元投资基础上，全年投资的投资者将获得6.726亿美元的回报。\n夏季反弹趋势\n美国银行技术研究策略师Stephen Suttmeier说，标普500指数5月至10月的季节性疲软模式也很明显，但自1928年以来，平均回报率有66%是正值的。\n他说，由于该指数这一六月期的平均正回报率也有2.2%，所以’5月卖出’策略还有许多不足之处。\n他的研究证实了夏季反弹的趋势，而5月至10月期间的下跌是“前轻后重”。\n他在一份报告中写道：“应该是‘5月买进，7/ 8月抛售’，而不是‘5月抛售，清空两手’。月度季节性特征表明，在强劲的4月卖出，在风险规避的5月买入，在7月至8月卖出，9月是一年中最疲软的一个月。”\nSuttmeier指出，在新总统任期的第一年，夏季涨势可能会更强劲，4月和7月市场表现强劲，但5月也会有稳健回报。他写道：“今年春夏季的反弹和秋季的回调会在总统任期第一年被放大，预计4-6月平均上涨5.5%，8-10月平均下跌2.4%。”\nCRFA首席投资策略师Sam Stovall也通过标普等权重500指数（S&P Equal Weight 500）的表现，观察了“5月抛售”现象。该指数给予每只股票相等的权重，而不是标普500指数的市值权重。截至4月30日，标普等权重500指数今年累计上涨了16.2%，是该指数1990年创建以来第三强劲的前四个月开局。\nStovall在一份报告中写道：“投资者现在会问，这个未加权的美国大盘股指标是否走得太远、太快了。“\n他说，历史显示，这种早期的走势通常会在5月进入市场消化阶段。在今年最后三个月出现高于平均水平的涨幅之前，股市在9月份可能还会出现波动。\nCornerstone Macro的Worth表示：“‘5月卖出离场’这句话来源于一句英语谚语——‘5月抛售，清空两手，圣莱杰日重抖擞’。圣莱杰节指的是圣莱杰赛马，一种在九月中旬举行的纯种马比赛。这一习俗指的是人们离开伦敦前往乡村，以躲避炎热的夏季。”","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":636,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":108612788,"gmtCreate":1620017945644,"gmtModify":1634208475622,"author":{"id":"3581152990948935","authorId":"3581152990948935","name":"GenieWong","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d85f1d028057557e10935554251114d9","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3581152990948935","authorIdStr":"3581152990948935"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"👍","listText":"👍","text":"👍","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/108612788","repostId":"2132465595","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":194,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}
