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2021-11-30

Did the bank stocks take a hit due to the curveballs from the new variants? Prices have fallen for consequentive 2 days, standing by to enter for the long haul ...

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2021-10-09

$CITY DEVELOPMENTS LIMITED(C09.SI)$waited or the uptrend for a while, but the resistence level seems hard to breakthrough .

2021-10-04

$UNITED OVERSEAS BANK LIMITED(U11.SI)$may it cross $26 today!

2021-09-30

$OVERSEA-CHINESE BANKING CORP(O39.SI)$with the other 2 banks moving up, haven't seen much movement with ocbc yet 😭

2021-09-29

Is a correction coming?

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2021-09-28

May the banks rebound this week!

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Prices have fallen for consequentive 2 days, standing by to enter for the long haul ...&nbsp;","listText":"Did the bank stocks take a hit due to the curveballs from the new variants? Prices have fallen for consequentive 2 days, standing by to enter for the long haul ...&nbsp;","text":"Did the bank stocks take a hit due to the curveballs from the new variants? Prices have fallen for consequentive 2 days, standing by to enter for the long haul ...","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/609142445","repostId":"1198868777","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":420,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":821692247,"gmtCreate":1633738128354,"gmtModify":1633738128580,"author":{"id":"3579716456169639","authorId":"3579716456169639","name":"pt83","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e748d477cf5569dacd7db9e300a6f437","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/C09.SI\">$CITY DEVELOPMENTS LIMITED(C09.SI)$</a>waited&nbsp;or the uptrend for a while, but the resistence level seems hard to breakthrough .","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/C09.SI\">$CITY DEVELOPMENTS LIMITED(C09.SI)$</a>waited&nbsp;or the 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href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/O39.SI\">$OVERSEA-CHINESE BANKING CORP(O39.SI)$</a>with the other 2 banks moving up, haven't seen much movement with ocbc yet 😭","text":"$OVERSEA-CHINESE BANKING CORP(O39.SI)$with the other 2 banks moving up, haven't seen much movement with ocbc yet 😭","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a3300999b3b69664b568d581ec2ef8a6","width":"1080","height":"1920"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/865638724","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":250,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":862454002,"gmtCreate":1632905333632,"gmtModify":1632905333809,"author":{"id":"3579716456169639","authorId":"3579716456169639","name":"pt83","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e748d477cf5569dacd7db9e300a6f437","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Is a correction coming?&nbsp;","listText":"Is a correction coming?&nbsp;","text":"Is a correction coming?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/862454002","repostId":"1198528044","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":382,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":866474516,"gmtCreate":1632801307535,"gmtModify":1632801307535,"author":{"id":"3579716456169639","authorId":"3579716456169639","name":"pt83","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e748d477cf5569dacd7db9e300a6f437","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"May the banks rebound this week!","listText":"May the banks rebound this week!","text":"May the banks rebound this week!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/866474516","repostId":"1186739324","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":638,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":865638724,"gmtCreate":1632973728089,"gmtModify":1632973729966,"author":{"id":"3579716456169639","authorId":"3579716456169639","name":"pt83","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e748d477cf5569dacd7db9e300a6f437","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/O39.SI\">$OVERSEA-CHINESE BANKING CORP(O39.SI)$</a>with the other 2 banks moving up, haven't seen much movement with ocbc yet 😭","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/O39.SI\">$OVERSEA-CHINESE BANKING CORP(O39.SI)$</a>with the other 2 banks moving up, haven't seen much movement with ocbc yet 😭","text":"$OVERSEA-CHINESE BANKING CORP(O39.SI)$with the other 2 banks moving up, haven't seen much movement with ocbc yet 😭","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a3300999b3b69664b568d581ec2ef8a6","width":"1080","height":"1920"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/865638724","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":250,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":867757155,"gmtCreate":1633317658755,"gmtModify":1633317850534,"author":{"id":"3579716456169639","authorId":"3579716456169639","name":"pt83","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e748d477cf5569dacd7db9e300a6f437","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/U11.SI\">$UNITED OVERSEAS BANK LIMITED(U11.SI)$</a>may it cross $26 today!","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/U11.SI\">$UNITED OVERSEAS BANK LIMITED(U11.SI)$</a>may it cross $26 today!","text":"$UNITED OVERSEAS BANK LIMITED(U11.SI)$may it cross $26 today!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/867757155","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":361,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":862454002,"gmtCreate":1632905333632,"gmtModify":1632905333809,"author":{"id":"3579716456169639","authorId":"3579716456169639","name":"pt83","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e748d477cf5569dacd7db9e300a6f437","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Is a correction coming?&nbsp;","listText":"Is a correction coming?&nbsp;","text":"Is a correction coming?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/862454002","repostId":"1198528044","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1198528044","pubTimestamp":1632882697,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1198528044?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-09-29 10:31","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Technically Speaking: Is The Market \"Melting-Up?\"","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1198528044","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Summary\n\nGiven the Fed’s ongoing balance sheet operations, investors fully believe they have protect","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p>\n<ul>\n <li>Given the Fed’s ongoing balance sheet operations, investors fully believe they have protection from a decline.</li>\n <li>As is always the case, the investing public believes future earnings will justify higher prices during a melt-up. It just never works out that way.</li>\n <li>While it is essential to take advantage of the melt-up while it lasts, just don’t become overly complacent “this time is different”.</li>\n</ul>\n<p>Is the<i>“market melting-up?”</i>Such was the question I received from my colleague at<i>Cut The Crap Investing.</i>It is an excellent question given the relentless increase in what investors believe is a<i>“no risk”</i>market.</p>\n<p>Of course, we need a definition of precisely what constitutes a melt-up.</p>\n<blockquote>\n <i>“A melt-up is a sustained and often unexpected improvement in the investment performance of an asset or asset class, driven partly</i>\n <i><b>by a stampede of investors who don’t want to miss out on its rise,</b></i>\n <i>rather than by fundamental improvements in the economy.“</i>–\n <i>Investopedia</i>\n</blockquote>\n<p>Currently, there is sufficient evidence to support the idea of an exuberant market.<b><i>As noted previously:</i></b></p>\n<blockquote>\n <i>“Near peaks of market cycles, investors become swept up by the underlying exuberance. That exuberance breeds the “rationalization” that “this time is different.” So how do you know the market is exuberant currently? Via Sentiment Trader:”</i>\n</blockquote>\n<blockquote>\n <i>‘This type of market activity is an indication that markets have returned their ‘enthusiasm’ stage. Such is characterized by:’</i>\n</blockquote>\n<ul>\n <li><b><i>High optimism</i></b></li>\n <li><b><i>Easy credit (too easy, with loose terms)</i></b></li>\n <li><b><i>A rush of initial and secondary offerings</i></b></li>\n <li><b><i>Risky stocks outperforming</i></b></li>\n <li><b><i>Stretched valuations</i></b></li>\n</ul>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ff8de3a84084162ca86b415584bbf793\" tg-width=\"731\" tg-height=\"468\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p>\n<p>However, while one would expect individuals to exhibit caution in such an environment, the opposite is true. Given the Fed’s ongoing balance sheet operations, investors fully believe they have protection from a decline.</p>\n<p><b>A Visualization Of A Market Melting-Up</b></p>\n<p>It is often easier to visualize something rather than explain it.<b>Since 1900, only two previous market periods qualify as a melt-up: 1920-1929 and 1995-2000.</b>The chart below shows both periods in terms of price.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a218c7efe2ebd874d05c9ff7dd564436\" tg-width=\"797\" tg-height=\"437\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9f193c9c32d55747bf7ff511c2f9fd53\" tg-width=\"793\" tg-height=\"439\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p>\n<p>However, the melt-up is also visually represented by the incredibly sharp rise in valuations. Such is essential because earnings are not rising at a fast enough clip to support higher prices.<b>As is always the case, the investing public believes future earnings will justify higher prices during a melt-up. It just never works out that way.</b></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c69e418d5a19d6fd03b305ab111e3be3\" tg-width=\"794\" tg-height=\"440\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/af03d3bbd071b8edfdf3a19e2c7b0bcd\" tg-width=\"796\" tg-height=\"437\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p>\n<p>We can compare those two previous periods with the current advance from the March 2020 lows. Again, we see a very similar sharp advance in price combined with a surge in valuations. As expected, investors are currently hoping that future earnings will rise sharply enough to justify current prices. However, the justification for paying high prices is the Federal Reserve’s ongoing balance sheet expansion.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f3562aea27b24ad4921d0f5cd497e072\" tg-width=\"804\" tg-height=\"444\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p>\n<p>The following chart looks that the price advance and valuation measures a little differently. It shows the current deviation from the long-term exponential growth trend. Not surprisingly, during a market<i>“melt-up,”</i>there is a rapid deviation from the growth trend matching the acceleration in valuations.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1419cf4b2afdcdc0f61e0cad862f498d\" tg-width=\"836\" tg-height=\"460\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p>\n<p>The problem with market<i>“melt-ups”</i>is not the melt-up itself but what always follows.</p>\n<p><b>Melting-Up Leads To Melting-Down</b></p>\n<p>A market melting-up is exciting while it lasts. During melt-ups, investors begin to rationalize why<i>“this time is different.”</i>They start taking on excess leverage to try and capitalize on the rapid advance in prices, and fundamentals take a back seat to price momentum.</p>\n<p>Market melt-ups are all about<i>“psychology.”</i><b>Historically, whatever has been the catalyst to spark the disregard of risk is readily witnessed in the corresponding surge in price and valuations.</b>The chart below shows the long-term deviations in relative strength, deviations, and valuations. The previous<i>‘melt-up”</i>periods should be easy to spot when compared with the advance currently.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bc04cb25c0199dd17475a551a5dd7ec1\" tg-width=\"869\" tg-height=\"1024\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p>\n<p>Given that current extensions match only a few rare periods in history, a couple of points should be readily apparent.</p>\n<ol>\n <li><b><i>Melt-ups can longer than logic would predict.</i></b></li>\n <li><b><i>The prevailing psychology is always “this time is different.”</i></b></li>\n <li><b><i>Valuations are dismissed in exchange for measures of momentum and forward expectations.</i></b></li>\n <li><b><i>Investors take on excess leverage and risk in order to participate in a seemingly “can’t lose” market.</i></b></li>\n <li><b><i>Lastly, and inevitably, “melt-ups” end and always in the worst possible outcomes.</i></b></li>\n</ol>\n<p>It is essential to recognize the markets are in a<i>“melt-up,</i>” and the duration of that event is unknowable. Therefore, investors need a strategy to participate in the advance and mitigate the damage from the eventual<i>“melting-down.”</i></p>\n<p><b>Surviving The Melt-Up</b></p>\n<p><b>As noted, none of this means the next</b><b><i>“bear market”</i></b><b>is lurking.</b>Given that a market melting-up is a function of psychology, they can last longer and go further than logic would predict. What is required to “<i>end”</i>a melt-up is an unanticipated exogenous event that changes psychology from bullish to bearish. Such is when the stampede for the exits occurs, and prices decline very quickly.</p>\n<p>As such, investors need a set of guidelines to participate in the market advance. But, of course, the hard part is keeping those gains when corrections inevitably occur.</p>\n<p>As portfolio managers for our clients, such is precisely the approach we must take. Accordingly, I have provided a general overview of the process that we employ.</p>\n<ol>\n <li><i><b>Tighten up stop-loss levels</b></i><i>to current support levels for each position.(Provides identifiable exit points when the market reverses.)</i></li>\n <li><i><b>Hedge portfolios</b></i><i>against major market declines.(Non-correlated assets, short-market positions, index put options)</i></li>\n <li><i><b>Take profits</b></i><i>in positions that have been big winners(Rebalancing overbought or extended positions to capture gains but continue to participate in the advance.)</i></li>\n <li><i><b>Sell laggards</b></i><i>and losers</i>.<i>(If something isn’t working in a market melt-up, it most likely won’t work during a broad decline. Better to eliminate the risk early.)</i></li>\n <li><i><b>Raise cash</b></i><i>and rebalance portfolios to target weightings.(Rebalancing risk on a regular basis keeps hidden risks somewhat mitigated.)</i></li>\n</ol>\n<p><b>Notice, nothing in there says,</b><b><i>“sell everything and go to cash.”</i></b></p>\n<p>There will be a time to raise significant levels of cash. A good portfolio management strategy will automatically ensure that<i>“stop-loss”</i>levels get triggered, exposure decreases, and cash levels rise when the selling begins.</p>\n<p>While it is essential to take advantage of the melt-up while it lasts, just don’t become overly complacent<i>“this time is different.”</i></p>\n<p>It likely isn’t.</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Technically Speaking: Is The Market \"Melting-Up?\"</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nTechnically Speaking: Is The Market \"Melting-Up?\"\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-09-29 10:31 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4457469-technically-speaking-is-the-market-melting-up><strong>seekingalpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Summary\n\nGiven the Fed’s ongoing balance sheet operations, investors fully believe they have protection from a decline.\nAs is always the case, the investing public believes future earnings will ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4457469-technically-speaking-is-the-market-melting-up\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","SPY":"标普500ETF"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4457469-technically-speaking-is-the-market-melting-up","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1198528044","content_text":"Summary\n\nGiven the Fed’s ongoing balance sheet operations, investors fully believe they have protection from a decline.\nAs is always the case, the investing public believes future earnings will justify higher prices during a melt-up. It just never works out that way.\nWhile it is essential to take advantage of the melt-up while it lasts, just don’t become overly complacent “this time is different”.\n\nIs the“market melting-up?”Such was the question I received from my colleague atCut The Crap Investing.It is an excellent question given the relentless increase in what investors believe is a“no risk”market.\nOf course, we need a definition of precisely what constitutes a melt-up.\n\n“A melt-up is a sustained and often unexpected improvement in the investment performance of an asset or asset class, driven partly\nby a stampede of investors who don’t want to miss out on its rise,\nrather than by fundamental improvements in the economy.“–\n Investopedia\n\nCurrently, there is sufficient evidence to support the idea of an exuberant market.As noted previously:\n\n“Near peaks of market cycles, investors become swept up by the underlying exuberance. That exuberance breeds the “rationalization” that “this time is different.” So how do you know the market is exuberant currently? Via Sentiment Trader:”\n\n\n‘This type of market activity is an indication that markets have returned their ‘enthusiasm’ stage. Such is characterized by:’\n\n\nHigh optimism\nEasy credit (too easy, with loose terms)\nA rush of initial and secondary offerings\nRisky stocks outperforming\nStretched valuations\n\n\nHowever, while one would expect individuals to exhibit caution in such an environment, the opposite is true. Given the Fed’s ongoing balance sheet operations, investors fully believe they have protection from a decline.\nA Visualization Of A Market Melting-Up\nIt is often easier to visualize something rather than explain it.Since 1900, only two previous market periods qualify as a melt-up: 1920-1929 and 1995-2000.The chart below shows both periods in terms of price.\n\nHowever, the melt-up is also visually represented by the incredibly sharp rise in valuations. Such is essential because earnings are not rising at a fast enough clip to support higher prices.As is always the case, the investing public believes future earnings will justify higher prices during a melt-up. It just never works out that way.\n\nWe can compare those two previous periods with the current advance from the March 2020 lows. Again, we see a very similar sharp advance in price combined with a surge in valuations. As expected, investors are currently hoping that future earnings will rise sharply enough to justify current prices. However, the justification for paying high prices is the Federal Reserve’s ongoing balance sheet expansion.\n\nThe following chart looks that the price advance and valuation measures a little differently. It shows the current deviation from the long-term exponential growth trend. Not surprisingly, during a market“melt-up,”there is a rapid deviation from the growth trend matching the acceleration in valuations.\n\nThe problem with market“melt-ups”is not the melt-up itself but what always follows.\nMelting-Up Leads To Melting-Down\nA market melting-up is exciting while it lasts. During melt-ups, investors begin to rationalize why“this time is different.”They start taking on excess leverage to try and capitalize on the rapid advance in prices, and fundamentals take a back seat to price momentum.\nMarket melt-ups are all about“psychology.”Historically, whatever has been the catalyst to spark the disregard of risk is readily witnessed in the corresponding surge in price and valuations.The chart below shows the long-term deviations in relative strength, deviations, and valuations. The previous‘melt-up”periods should be easy to spot when compared with the advance currently.\n\nGiven that current extensions match only a few rare periods in history, a couple of points should be readily apparent.\n\nMelt-ups can longer than logic would predict.\nThe prevailing psychology is always “this time is different.”\nValuations are dismissed in exchange for measures of momentum and forward expectations.\nInvestors take on excess leverage and risk in order to participate in a seemingly “can’t lose” market.\nLastly, and inevitably, “melt-ups” end and always in the worst possible outcomes.\n\nIt is essential to recognize the markets are in a“melt-up,” and the duration of that event is unknowable. Therefore, investors need a strategy to participate in the advance and mitigate the damage from the eventual“melting-down.”\nSurviving The Melt-Up\nAs noted, none of this means the next“bear market”is lurking.Given that a market melting-up is a function of psychology, they can last longer and go further than logic would predict. What is required to “end”a melt-up is an unanticipated exogenous event that changes psychology from bullish to bearish. Such is when the stampede for the exits occurs, and prices decline very quickly.\nAs such, investors need a set of guidelines to participate in the market advance. But, of course, the hard part is keeping those gains when corrections inevitably occur.\nAs portfolio managers for our clients, such is precisely the approach we must take. Accordingly, I have provided a general overview of the process that we employ.\n\nTighten up stop-loss levelsto current support levels for each position.(Provides identifiable exit points when the market reverses.)\nHedge portfoliosagainst major market declines.(Non-correlated assets, short-market positions, index put options)\nTake profitsin positions that have been big winners(Rebalancing overbought or extended positions to capture gains but continue to participate in the advance.)\nSell laggardsand losers.(If something isn’t working in a market melt-up, it most likely won’t work during a broad decline. Better to eliminate the risk early.)\nRaise cashand rebalance portfolios to target weightings.(Rebalancing risk on a regular basis keeps hidden risks somewhat mitigated.)\n\nNotice, nothing in there says,“sell everything and go to cash.”\nThere will be a time to raise significant levels of cash. A good portfolio management strategy will automatically ensure that“stop-loss”levels get triggered, exposure decreases, and cash levels rise when the selling begins.\nWhile it is essential to take advantage of the melt-up while it lasts, just don’t become overly complacent“this time is different.”\nIt likely isn’t.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":382,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":866474516,"gmtCreate":1632801307535,"gmtModify":1632801307535,"author":{"id":"3579716456169639","authorId":"3579716456169639","name":"pt83","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e748d477cf5569dacd7db9e300a6f437","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"May the banks rebound this week!","listText":"May the banks rebound this week!","text":"May the banks rebound this week!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/866474516","repostId":"1186739324","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1186739324","pubTimestamp":1632793881,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1186739324?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-09-28 09:51","market":"sg","language":"en","title":"Singapore stocks fall at Tuesday's open; STI down 0.3%","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1186739324","media":"The Business Times","summary":"SINGAPORE shares opened weaker on Tuesday following a mixed close on Wall Street amid investor conce","content":"<div>\n<p>SINGAPORE shares opened weaker on Tuesday following a mixed close on Wall Street amid investor concerns over the risk of a US government shutdown.\nThe Straits Times Index (STI) slipped 0.3 per cent or...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.businesstimes.com.sg/stocks/singapore-stocks-fall-at-tuesdays-open-sti-down-03-0\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n","source":"bustime_highlight","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Singapore stocks fall at Tuesday's open; STI down 0.3%</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nSingapore stocks fall at Tuesday's open; STI down 0.3%\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-09-28 09:51 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.businesstimes.com.sg/stocks/singapore-stocks-fall-at-tuesdays-open-sti-down-03-0><strong>The Business Times</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>SINGAPORE shares opened weaker on Tuesday following a mixed close on Wall Street amid investor concerns over the risk of a US government shutdown.\nThe Straits Times Index (STI) slipped 0.3 per cent or...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.businesstimes.com.sg/stocks/singapore-stocks-fall-at-tuesdays-open-sti-down-03-0\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"STI.SI":"富时新加坡海峡指数"},"source_url":"https://www.businesstimes.com.sg/stocks/singapore-stocks-fall-at-tuesdays-open-sti-down-03-0","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1186739324","content_text":"SINGAPORE shares opened weaker on Tuesday following a mixed close on Wall Street amid investor concerns over the risk of a US government shutdown.\nThe Straits Times Index (STI) slipped 0.3 per cent or 10.46 points to 3,089.84 as at 9.04am. Losers outnumbered gainers 73 to 55, after 178.8 million securities worth S$81.4 million changed hands.\nThe most active counter by volume was Sembcorp Marine, which rose 2.5 per cent or 0.2 Singapore cent to 8.3 cents, with 66.8 million shares changing hands.\nOther heavily traded securities include FJ Benjamin, which gained 15.4 per cent or 0.4 Singapore cent to three cents, with 15.9 million shares traded, and VCPlus, which was up 8 per cent or 0.2 Singapore cent at 2.7 cents, with 11.6 million shares traded.\nThe Catalist-listed gold miner on Monday said it isacquiring technology consultancy firm APEC Solutionsfor S$5 million, in a bid to further its fintech ambition.\nBanking stocks were mixed in early trade. DBS inched up 0.1 per cent or S$0.02 to S$30.02, UOB lost 0.2 per cent or S$0.06 to S$25.72, while OCBC fell 0.8 per cent or S$0.09 to S$11.53.\nOther active index counters include Yangzijiang Shipbuilding, which slipped 1.4 per cent or S$0.02 to S$1.38, and Wilmar International, which climbed 1 per cent or S$0.04 to S$4.15.\nIn the US, investors arebracing for a week of uncertaintytrying to ascertain if Washington will avert a messy government shutdown. US lawmakers have until Sept 30 to pass a funding bill, even a temporary one, to keep the government operating.\nThe Dow Jones Industrial Average ended 0.2 per cent higher at 34,869.37. However, the broad-based S&P 500 shed 0.3 per cent to 4,443.11, while the tech-rich Nasdaq Composite Index lost 0.5 per cent to settle at 14,969.97.\nEurope's Stoxx 600 indexended 0.2 per cent loweron Monday as declines in tech stocks offset gains in banks and energy counters.\nElsewhere in Asia, Tokyo stocksopened lower on Tuesday. The benchmark Nikkei 225 index was down 0.3 per cent at 30,156.42 in early trade, while the broader Topix index eased 0.2 per cent to 2,083.01.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":638,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":609142445,"gmtCreate":1638257940317,"gmtModify":1638259291224,"author":{"id":"3579716456169639","authorId":"3579716456169639","name":"pt83","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e748d477cf5569dacd7db9e300a6f437","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Did the bank stocks take a hit due to the curveballs from the new variants? Prices have fallen for consequentive 2 days, standing by to enter for the long haul ...&nbsp;","listText":"Did the bank stocks take a hit due to the curveballs from the new variants? Prices have fallen for consequentive 2 days, standing by to enter for the long haul ...&nbsp;","text":"Did the bank stocks take a hit due to the curveballs from the new variants? Prices have fallen for consequentive 2 days, standing by to enter for the long haul ...","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/609142445","repostId":"1198868777","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1198868777","pubTimestamp":1638249651,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1198868777?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-11-30 13:20","market":"sg","language":"en","title":"Brokers' take: DBS expects Singapore banks to benefit from rate-hike cycle, maintains 'buy' on UOB, OCBC","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1198868777","media":"businesstimes","summary":"DBS Group Research has maintained \"buy\" on UOB and OCBC at target prices of S$31 and S$14 respective","content":"<div>\n<p>DBS Group Research has maintained \"buy\" on UOB and OCBC at target prices of S$31 and S$14 respectively, as it expects Singapore banks to benefit from the rate-hike cycle.\nThe stance comes as DBS ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.businesstimes.com.sg/companies-markets/brokers-take-dbs-expects-singapore-banks-to-benefit-from-rate-hike-cycle-maintains\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n","source":"lsy1607307803821","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Brokers' take: DBS expects Singapore banks to benefit from rate-hike cycle, maintains 'buy' on UOB, OCBC</title>\n<style 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margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nBrokers' take: DBS expects Singapore banks to benefit from rate-hike cycle, maintains 'buy' on UOB, OCBC\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-11-30 13:20 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.businesstimes.com.sg/companies-markets/brokers-take-dbs-expects-singapore-banks-to-benefit-from-rate-hike-cycle-maintains><strong>businesstimes</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>DBS Group Research has maintained \"buy\" on UOB and OCBC at target prices of S$31 and S$14 respectively, as it expects Singapore banks to benefit from the rate-hike cycle.\nThe stance comes as DBS ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.businesstimes.com.sg/companies-markets/brokers-take-dbs-expects-singapore-banks-to-benefit-from-rate-hike-cycle-maintains\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"D05.SI":"星展集团控股","U10.SI":"大华继显控股"},"source_url":"https://www.businesstimes.com.sg/companies-markets/brokers-take-dbs-expects-singapore-banks-to-benefit-from-rate-hike-cycle-maintains","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1198868777","content_text":"DBS Group Research has maintained \"buy\" on UOB and OCBC at target prices of S$31 and S$14 respectively, as it expects Singapore banks to benefit from the rate-hike cycle.\nThe stance comes as DBS economists now expect Fed rate hikes to be delivered earlier, with 2 rate hikes in the second half of 2022, if the economic momentum is maintained, followed by another 2 rate hikes in early 2023.\nWith that, DBS analyst Lim Rui Wen, in a industry focus report dated Nov 30, pointed to upsides to the banks' net interest margin (NIM) and earnings as soon as H2 FY2022, should the banks start to reprice loans on higher benchmark rates.\nAs reference, she noted that DBS's own management has guided for S$1.8 billion to S$2 billion of incremental net interest income for every 100 basis points (bps) of rate hike.\nIn reiterating \"buy\" on UOB and OCBC, Lim also remarked that the banks' current valuations of 1 time their FY2022 price-to-book estimates are \"inexpensive\".\nBesides, Singapore banks are favoured across Asean banks due to their high earnings visibility, dividend yields, and certainty of firm earnings and return-on-equity recovery, she added.\nBesides being Fed hike beneficiaries, Singapore banks can look forward to a potential writeback of provisions in FY2022, with every 10 bps decline in credit costs possibly providing a 5 to 6 per cent earnings upside in the period, Lim said.\nHigher dividends could be a potential catalyst, said Lim, who is anticipating \"further upside in dividends\" in FY2022 due to the banks' strong capital levels, which are above the management's comfortable operating range.\nAssuming a Common Equity Tier 1 comfortable operating range of 13 to 13.5 per cent, OCBC's excess capital is estimated to stand at S$4.6 billion to S$5.7 billion, or more than S$1 per share, while UOB's is estimated to be up to S$1.3 billion, or up to S$0.70 per share, she stated.\nNotwithstanding that, she said key risks to investing in the banks include a slower-than-expected economic recovery, resurgence of pandemic cases and lockdowns, higher-than-expected credit costs, and later-than-expected Fed hikes.\nThere are, however, some bright spots for 2022, as she expects sustainability related, renewable energy, data centre, healthcare, and logistics fields to continue providing areas of loan growth.\nRobust new mortgage bookings over FY2021 will also serve as a good pipeline for future drawdowns in FY2022, she said, further noting that UOB management also believes that regional loan growth will see increased traction in the future.\nMeanwhile, the banks' non-interest income will continue to support the banks' top line, she added, noting that fee income at DBS, OCBC and UOB has grown at a compound annual growth rate of 7 per cent, 5.2 per cent and 0.8 per cent respectively in the past 5 years.\nIn FY2022, Lim projects a 10 per cent year-on-year growth in the banks' fee income, with wealth management fees contributing as a key driver of the segment.\nTrading income, which continued to be mixed across the banks, will be a \"wild card\" in this segment, Lim said.\nFrom investment securities, DBS in H1 FY2021 recorded a net trading income of S$1.04 billion and net income of S$310 million, up 38 per cent and 58 per cent respectively from the same period in the previous year.\nOCBC's trading income in the first 9 months of FY2020 stood at S$611 million, up 2 per cent from the same period in the previous year, while its net income from investment securities stood S$200 million, down 16 per cent year on year.\nUOB's trading and investment income for 9M FY2020 was S$620m, down 15 per cent year on year.\nAs at noon on Tuesday (Nov 30), shares of UOB were trading at S$26.19, down 1.3 per cent or S$0.34, while OCBC shares were trading at S$11.26, down 0.7 per cent or S$0.08.\nDBS shares were trading at S$30.60, down 0.6 per cent or S$0.19.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":420,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":821692247,"gmtCreate":1633738128354,"gmtModify":1633738128580,"author":{"id":"3579716456169639","authorId":"3579716456169639","name":"pt83","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e748d477cf5569dacd7db9e300a6f437","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/C09.SI\">$CITY DEVELOPMENTS LIMITED(C09.SI)$</a>waited&nbsp;or the uptrend for a while, but the resistence level seems hard to breakthrough .","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/C09.SI\">$CITY DEVELOPMENTS LIMITED(C09.SI)$</a>waited&nbsp;or the uptrend for a while, but the resistence level seems hard to breakthrough .","text":"$CITY DEVELOPMENTS LIMITED(C09.SI)$waited or the uptrend for a while, but the resistence level seems hard to breakthrough .","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8e0acf4f9afbf48d443afe85ee110432","width":"1080","height":"1920"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/821692247","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":317,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}