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littlecub
2021-03-23
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Starbucks Stock: Good Buy Or Goodbye
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2021-03-23
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2021-03-21
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Initially suffering a price plunge from the low $90 range, the stock bottomed out around $52 a share.</p>\n<p>During the worst days of the coronavirus, comps fell by 40%. Revenue dropped $3 billion YoY in FY 2020, yet today the stock trades about 16% higher than in the months prior to COVID-19.</p>\n<p>Perhaps the share price is warranted.</p>\n<p>Consider these facts: for the fifth year in a row, Starbucks was named the most valuable restaurant brand in the world. Fortune magazine ranks SBUX as the fifth most admired company in the world.</p>\n<p>Prior to the pandemic, SBUX had well over twice the sales of its largest rival, Dunkin’ Donuts (DNKN).</p>\n<p>In fact, the firm has no true competitor. The larger purveyors of coffee don’t provide the wide selection or quality products that characterize Starbuck’s offerings, while the smaller operators lack the scale advantages the company holds.</p>\n<p>On average, SBUX opened two new stores every day since 1987. The increasing store count drove a seemingly inexorable growth in sales. In 2016, the firm recorded $21.3 billion in revenue. In FY 2019 that metric had increased to $26.5 billion. Those numbers served to drive the stock up over 500% in the last decade.</p>\n<p>While conducting my due diligence, it became apparent that the investment thesis for Starbucks is quite simple. The company’s sales stem from a 75% beverage and 20% food item mix. Along with the advantages I enumerated above, SBUX has a very strong balance sheet.</p>\n<p>The only real question is, can this enormous company continue to grow at a rate that warrants the current share price?</p>\n<p>An answer to that question may lie in the coronavirus crisis. Last year, 110,000 food service locations close dpermanently in the US. During that same period, Starbucks increased its store count by 1,404. Meanwhile, Dunkin’ announced plans to close 800 locations, 8% of its total store count in the US, in 2020.</p>\n<p><b>The Primary Growth Drivers</b></p>\n<p>Starbucks now operates in 62 countries. Management plans to increase the current store base of over 32,000 stores to 55,000 by 2030. The company guides for 1,100 net new stores in 2021 with 1,050 of those in international markets. Over half of the new stores (600) are scheduled to open in China.</p>\n<p>The firm has a 33% market share in the US, but it holds a mere 1% of the global portion of the market. While the enormous potential for overseas expansion is evident, SBUX also gains an edge through international operations via lower operating costs. In the most recent quarter, operating expenses overseas averaged 48% of revenue versus a 53.2% cut found in US stores. In 2020, the difference was even greater: international operating expenses were 51.9% of revenue as opposed to 57.4% of revenue in the US.</p>\n<p>Management forecasts international comps will increase by 27.5% in 2021 while US comps are projected to grow 19.5%.</p>\n<p>Starbucks' emphasis on expanding in China is well founded. Aside from its enormous population, that nation’s middle class is set to increase from 430 million in 2019 to 780 million in 2025.</p>\n<p>While tea is the current beverage of choice for the average Chinese, coffee’s popularity is increasing at a rapid pace. Projections for coffee consumption in the country vary widely, but all reflect robust growth. For example,Mordor Intelligence forecasts a CAGR of 10.15% in the coffee market from 2021 through 2025 while quoting the China Coffee Association’s claim of an annual 15% growth rate.</p>\n<p>Meanwhile, the International Coffee Organization has China’s current coffee consumption growth rate pegged at 20% per annum, which is more than 2% greater than the global increase.</p>\n<p>Last quarter, SBUX International hit $1.7 billion in sales with $900 million of that originating in China. With the company planning to add over 6,000 stores in that country over the next 5 years, that means a new Starbucks will be opened on average every 15 hours in the Middle Kingdom.</p>\n<blockquote>\n <i>I think it was a couple of years ago at our China Investor Conference that we talked about a longer-term goal of reaching 6,000 stores in China by the end of fiscal '22. We remain optimistic that we will achieve that number, and that does imply that following fiscal '21, we will see an acceleration in the pace of new unit development in China.</i>\n</blockquote>\n<blockquote>\n -Patrick Grismer,CFO\n</blockquote>\n<p>In Q1 the company entered 15 new cities and opened nearly 160 stores in China, a 13% growth rate over the last 12 months. This is particularly impressive considering Starbucks suspended store openings for a period following the advent of the pandemic.</p>\n<p><b>Under The Radar Growth Prospects</b></p>\n<p>Present in 83 markets, Starbucks brick and mortar footprint is second only to McDonald’s among global restaurant chains. So how does a company with that wide of a geographic footprint readily reach a larger market?</p>\n<p>In steps Nestle (OTCPK:NSRGY) with a plan to distribute SBUX products in up to 190 countries. Initiated in the middle of 2018, the deal known as the Global Coffee Alliance provides Starbucks with a revenue stream outside of its store operations. In return, Nestle received perpetual rights to market Starbucks consumer packaged goods worldwide. The agreement excluded Ready-to-Drink products and the sale of items found within SBUX coffee shops.</p>\n<p>Throughout the company’s reports, Nestle points to Starbucks offerings as among its “high growth categories” of products.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5b17e22f0c9e3933181ec5dd0e27b696\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"720\"><span>Source: Nestle Q4 2020 Presentation</span></p>\n<p>In 2020, Nestle reported sales of CHF 2.7 billion for Starbucks goods (the CHF to USD exchange rate is 1.00 to 1.08). Considering Nestle had only introduced SBUX in 62 markets as of late 2020, that leaves a lengthy growth runway for the two.</p>\n<p>Because Starbucks receives long-term licensing revenue from the relationship, Nestle serves as one more growth driver for the company.</p>\n<blockquote>\n <i>The Global Coffee Alliance with Nestlé has been a powerful partnership and I'm proud to say that for the first time ever, we finished calendar year 2020 as the number one coffee brand across the entire coffee category. Think about it, Starbucks is now the number one coffee brand ahead of all premium and mainstream choices.</i>-Kevin Johnson,CEO, Nestle\n</blockquote>\n<p>SBUX also has a quarter century long partnership with Pepsi (PEP) to distribute various products. In the last quarter, sales of the US Ready-to-Drink coffee products Pepsi markets for Starbucks increased by 18%.</p>\n<p>The relationship with Pepsi has SBUX reigning as the #1 brand in at-home coffee. Last year, the company’s share in that category increased by 13%. This led to the company becoming the premium segment leader in China, with volume growth of 36% last year, as well as 25% growth in volume in the combined Europe/Middle East/ Africa region.</p>\n<blockquote>\n <i>We continue to see very strong performance in our coffee business, and our partnership with Starbucks is more robust than ever.</i>\n</blockquote>\n<blockquote>\n -Ramon Laguarta,CEO,Pepsi\n</blockquote>\n<p>Along with the Nestle and Pepsi partnerships, management seeks growth through additional initiatives. For example, Starbucks recently announced a nationwide rollout of Oatly oat milk beverages. Featured in Starbucks Iced Brown Sugar Oatmilk Shaken Espresso and its Honey Oatmilk Latte, the products are an effort to capitalize on the growing market for plant based foods. This serves to highlight the nimble nature of the company’s management team.</p>\n<p><b>A Shift In Store Makeup</b></p>\n<p>The management of Starbucks has been criticized at times for habitually closing underperforming locations. In 2008, when Howard Schultz returned as the company’s CEO following a period of relative underperformance by the company, he instituted a five point program. One area of emphasis was to close stores with poor performance metrics.</p>\n<p>Starbucks plans to close as many as 400 company owned stores in the Americas in the next 18 months. Nonetheless, the net number of stores in the Americas will increase due to new openings.</p>\n<p>Starbucks emphasis is on stores that provide faster service, particularly those with a drive thru component.</p>\n<p>Considering the store count continues to increase, and allowing for the fact that management’s growth strategy is now centered outside the US, I view the store closures as a positive.</p>\n<p>The following quote byCFOPat Grismer sums up the strategy well.</p>\n<blockquote>\n <i>... we've been able to manage the closures much more efficiently than we originally anticipated.So with this new information, we were able to go back and take a look at the portfolio, along with insights we have into how the dense metro trade areas are performing and identify an incremental 200 store closures that would create shareholder value through our ability to capture sales transfer from the stores that are closing at nearby locations, while also reducing cash operating losses at underperforming stores, avoiding future CapEx that would otherwise have to spend to remodel some of these stores.</i>\n</blockquote>\n<p><b>SBUX Stock Price</b></p>\n<p>As I type these words, the stock trades for $106.34 per share. The average 12 month price target of 28 analysts is $105.22. The price target of the 12 analysts rating the stock since release of the last quarterly results is $119.</p>\n<p>While the current P/E stands at 198.49, the forward P/E is 31.93x, and the PEG is 3.91.</p>\n<p><b>Dividend And Debt</b></p>\n<p>SBUX has a strong balance sheet with over $5 billion in cash and a bit over $14.7 billion in long term debt.</p>\n<p>The yield is currently 1.69%. The payout ratio is 63.35% and the five year dividend growth rate is 18.29%.</p>\n<p><b>Is Starbucks A Good Stock To Buy In 2021?</b></p>\n<p>Starbucks weathered the COVID crisis well. Testimony to its resilience lies in the recent bankruptcy of rival Luckin Coffee (OTCPK:LKNCY) and the fact that SBUX expanded its footprint while Dunkin closed a high single digit percentage of its US based stores.</p>\n<p>Management projects a comp increase of 18% to 23% in 2021; however, that forecast is based on a return to full capacity in store dining by the end of this month. The company also expects adjusted EPS of $2.70 to $2.90.</p>\n<p>SBUX bulls are betting on a strong recovery of the economy following the COVID crisis as well as robust growth in store counts, particularly in the International arena.</p>\n<p>This article provides a great deal of data indicating the company’s expansion efforts are likely to drive a strong growth in the stock’s price moving forward. The only negative I see is the current share price. As noted, management models EPS of $2.70 to $2.90 in 2021. This fails to match 2019’s EPS of $2.92 or 2018’s EPS of $3.24.</p>\n<p>The peak share price in 2019 was around $95 per share while the stock topped out at roughly $68 a share in 2018. Coupled with the assessment above of the current valuation, I must ask myself if the stock’s price offers a margin of safety.</p>\n<p>Consequently, I rate SBUX as a HOLD.</p>","source":"seekingalpha","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Starbucks Stock: Good Buy Or Goodbye</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nStarbucks Stock: Good Buy Or Goodbye\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-03-23 21:11 GMT+8 <a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4415533--is-starbucks-stock-a-good-buy-2021><strong>seekingalpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Summary\n\nStarbucks weathered the pandemic well.\nThe thesis for the stock is one of the most straightforward and least complicated I have ever encountered.\nInvestment in the company comes down to its ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4415533--is-starbucks-stock-a-good-buy-2021\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"SBUX":"星巴克"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4415533--is-starbucks-stock-a-good-buy-2021","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/5a36db9d73b4222bc376d24ccc48c8a4","article_id":"1128000162","content_text":"Summary\n\nStarbucks weathered the pandemic well.\nThe thesis for the stock is one of the most straightforward and least complicated I have ever encountered.\nInvestment in the company comes down to its growth prospects and valuation.\n\nPhoto by yongyuan/E+ via Getty Images\nLike every other company in the restaurant industry, Starbucks Corporation(NASDAQ:SBUX)was routed by the pandemic. Initially suffering a price plunge from the low $90 range, the stock bottomed out around $52 a share.\nDuring the worst days of the coronavirus, comps fell by 40%. Revenue dropped $3 billion YoY in FY 2020, yet today the stock trades about 16% higher than in the months prior to COVID-19.\nPerhaps the share price is warranted.\nConsider these facts: for the fifth year in a row, Starbucks was named the most valuable restaurant brand in the world. Fortune magazine ranks SBUX as the fifth most admired company in the world.\nPrior to the pandemic, SBUX had well over twice the sales of its largest rival, Dunkin’ Donuts (DNKN).\nIn fact, the firm has no true competitor. The larger purveyors of coffee don’t provide the wide selection or quality products that characterize Starbuck’s offerings, while the smaller operators lack the scale advantages the company holds.\nOn average, SBUX opened two new stores every day since 1987. The increasing store count drove a seemingly inexorable growth in sales. In 2016, the firm recorded $21.3 billion in revenue. In FY 2019 that metric had increased to $26.5 billion. Those numbers served to drive the stock up over 500% in the last decade.\nWhile conducting my due diligence, it became apparent that the investment thesis for Starbucks is quite simple. The company’s sales stem from a 75% beverage and 20% food item mix. Along with the advantages I enumerated above, SBUX has a very strong balance sheet.\nThe only real question is, can this enormous company continue to grow at a rate that warrants the current share price?\nAn answer to that question may lie in the coronavirus crisis. Last year, 110,000 food service locations close dpermanently in the US. During that same period, Starbucks increased its store count by 1,404. Meanwhile, Dunkin’ announced plans to close 800 locations, 8% of its total store count in the US, in 2020.\nThe Primary Growth Drivers\nStarbucks now operates in 62 countries. Management plans to increase the current store base of over 32,000 stores to 55,000 by 2030. The company guides for 1,100 net new stores in 2021 with 1,050 of those in international markets. Over half of the new stores (600) are scheduled to open in China.\nThe firm has a 33% market share in the US, but it holds a mere 1% of the global portion of the market. While the enormous potential for overseas expansion is evident, SBUX also gains an edge through international operations via lower operating costs. In the most recent quarter, operating expenses overseas averaged 48% of revenue versus a 53.2% cut found in US stores. In 2020, the difference was even greater: international operating expenses were 51.9% of revenue as opposed to 57.4% of revenue in the US.\nManagement forecasts international comps will increase by 27.5% in 2021 while US comps are projected to grow 19.5%.\nStarbucks' emphasis on expanding in China is well founded. Aside from its enormous population, that nation’s middle class is set to increase from 430 million in 2019 to 780 million in 2025.\nWhile tea is the current beverage of choice for the average Chinese, coffee’s popularity is increasing at a rapid pace. Projections for coffee consumption in the country vary widely, but all reflect robust growth. For example,Mordor Intelligence forecasts a CAGR of 10.15% in the coffee market from 2021 through 2025 while quoting the China Coffee Association’s claim of an annual 15% growth rate.\nMeanwhile, the International Coffee Organization has China’s current coffee consumption growth rate pegged at 20% per annum, which is more than 2% greater than the global increase.\nLast quarter, SBUX International hit $1.7 billion in sales with $900 million of that originating in China. With the company planning to add over 6,000 stores in that country over the next 5 years, that means a new Starbucks will be opened on average every 15 hours in the Middle Kingdom.\n\nI think it was a couple of years ago at our China Investor Conference that we talked about a longer-term goal of reaching 6,000 stores in China by the end of fiscal '22. We remain optimistic that we will achieve that number, and that does imply that following fiscal '21, we will see an acceleration in the pace of new unit development in China.\n\n\n -Patrick Grismer,CFO\n\nIn Q1 the company entered 15 new cities and opened nearly 160 stores in China, a 13% growth rate over the last 12 months. This is particularly impressive considering Starbucks suspended store openings for a period following the advent of the pandemic.\nUnder The Radar Growth Prospects\nPresent in 83 markets, Starbucks brick and mortar footprint is second only to McDonald’s among global restaurant chains. So how does a company with that wide of a geographic footprint readily reach a larger market?\nIn steps Nestle (OTCPK:NSRGY) with a plan to distribute SBUX products in up to 190 countries. Initiated in the middle of 2018, the deal known as the Global Coffee Alliance provides Starbucks with a revenue stream outside of its store operations. In return, Nestle received perpetual rights to market Starbucks consumer packaged goods worldwide. The agreement excluded Ready-to-Drink products and the sale of items found within SBUX coffee shops.\nThroughout the company’s reports, Nestle points to Starbucks offerings as among its “high growth categories” of products.\nSource: Nestle Q4 2020 Presentation\nIn 2020, Nestle reported sales of CHF 2.7 billion for Starbucks goods (the CHF to USD exchange rate is 1.00 to 1.08). Considering Nestle had only introduced SBUX in 62 markets as of late 2020, that leaves a lengthy growth runway for the two.\nBecause Starbucks receives long-term licensing revenue from the relationship, Nestle serves as one more growth driver for the company.\n\nThe Global Coffee Alliance with Nestlé has been a powerful partnership and I'm proud to say that for the first time ever, we finished calendar year 2020 as the number one coffee brand across the entire coffee category. Think about it, Starbucks is now the number one coffee brand ahead of all premium and mainstream choices.-Kevin Johnson,CEO, Nestle\n\nSBUX also has a quarter century long partnership with Pepsi (PEP) to distribute various products. In the last quarter, sales of the US Ready-to-Drink coffee products Pepsi markets for Starbucks increased by 18%.\nThe relationship with Pepsi has SBUX reigning as the #1 brand in at-home coffee. Last year, the company’s share in that category increased by 13%. This led to the company becoming the premium segment leader in China, with volume growth of 36% last year, as well as 25% growth in volume in the combined Europe/Middle East/ Africa region.\n\nWe continue to see very strong performance in our coffee business, and our partnership with Starbucks is more robust than ever.\n\n\n -Ramon Laguarta,CEO,Pepsi\n\nAlong with the Nestle and Pepsi partnerships, management seeks growth through additional initiatives. For example, Starbucks recently announced a nationwide rollout of Oatly oat milk beverages. Featured in Starbucks Iced Brown Sugar Oatmilk Shaken Espresso and its Honey Oatmilk Latte, the products are an effort to capitalize on the growing market for plant based foods. This serves to highlight the nimble nature of the company’s management team.\nA Shift In Store Makeup\nThe management of Starbucks has been criticized at times for habitually closing underperforming locations. In 2008, when Howard Schultz returned as the company’s CEO following a period of relative underperformance by the company, he instituted a five point program. One area of emphasis was to close stores with poor performance metrics.\nStarbucks plans to close as many as 400 company owned stores in the Americas in the next 18 months. Nonetheless, the net number of stores in the Americas will increase due to new openings.\nStarbucks emphasis is on stores that provide faster service, particularly those with a drive thru component.\nConsidering the store count continues to increase, and allowing for the fact that management’s growth strategy is now centered outside the US, I view the store closures as a positive.\nThe following quote byCFOPat Grismer sums up the strategy well.\n\n... we've been able to manage the closures much more efficiently than we originally anticipated.So with this new information, we were able to go back and take a look at the portfolio, along with insights we have into how the dense metro trade areas are performing and identify an incremental 200 store closures that would create shareholder value through our ability to capture sales transfer from the stores that are closing at nearby locations, while also reducing cash operating losses at underperforming stores, avoiding future CapEx that would otherwise have to spend to remodel some of these stores.\n\nSBUX Stock Price\nAs I type these words, the stock trades for $106.34 per share. The average 12 month price target of 28 analysts is $105.22. The price target of the 12 analysts rating the stock since release of the last quarterly results is $119.\nWhile the current P/E stands at 198.49, the forward P/E is 31.93x, and the PEG is 3.91.\nDividend And Debt\nSBUX has a strong balance sheet with over $5 billion in cash and a bit over $14.7 billion in long term debt.\nThe yield is currently 1.69%. The payout ratio is 63.35% and the five year dividend growth rate is 18.29%.\nIs Starbucks A Good Stock To Buy In 2021?\nStarbucks weathered the COVID crisis well. Testimony to its resilience lies in the recent bankruptcy of rival Luckin Coffee (OTCPK:LKNCY) and the fact that SBUX expanded its footprint while Dunkin closed a high single digit percentage of its US based stores.\nManagement projects a comp increase of 18% to 23% in 2021; however, that forecast is based on a return to full capacity in store dining by the end of this month. The company also expects adjusted EPS of $2.70 to $2.90.\nSBUX bulls are betting on a strong recovery of the economy following the COVID crisis as well as robust growth in store counts, particularly in the International arena.\nThis article provides a great deal of data indicating the company’s expansion efforts are likely to drive a strong growth in the stock’s price moving forward. The only negative I see is the current share price. As noted, management models EPS of $2.70 to $2.90 in 2021. This fails to match 2019’s EPS of $2.92 or 2018’s EPS of $3.24.\nThe peak share price in 2019 was around $95 per share while the stock topped out at roughly $68 a share in 2018. Coupled with the assessment above of the current valuation, I must ask myself if the stock’s price offers a margin of safety.\nConsequently, I rate SBUX as a HOLD.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":214,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":353580064,"gmtCreate":1616507679458,"gmtModify":1634525460283,"author":{"id":"3579407182839216","authorId":"3579407182839216","name":"littlecub","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3579407182839216","authorIdStr":"3579407182839216"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Like !!","listText":"Like !!","text":"Like !!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/353580064","repostId":"1182609357","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":579,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":359308111,"gmtCreate":1616334997833,"gmtModify":1634526310862,"author":{"id":"3579407182839216","authorId":"3579407182839216","name":"littlecub","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3579407182839216","authorIdStr":"3579407182839216"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"nice","listText":"nice","text":"nice","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/359308111","repostId":"1103756496","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1103756496","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1616163949,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1103756496?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-03-19 22:25","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Apple Stock Is Going Down, One Analyst Says. Here’s Why","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1103756496","media":"The Street","summary":"Recently, I laid out the arguments supporting Wall Street’s most bullish of theses on Apple stock. Some of the highlights included the doubling of services and wearables revenues in five years, the 5G super cycle, the greenfield Apple Car opportunity, and an acceleration in share repurchases.Now, I look at the flip side of the coin. How would one support the most bearish argument on Apple shares?At least one analyst has compiled a laundry list of items that makes him fear for a 35% drop in the s","content":"<p>Recently, I laid out the arguments supporting Wall Street’s most bullish of theses on Apple stock. Some of the highlights included the doubling of services and wearables revenues in five years, the 5G super cycle, the greenfield Apple Car opportunity, and an acceleration in share repurchases.</p>\n<p>Now, I look at the flip side of the coin. How would one support the most bearish argument on Apple shares? At least one analyst has compiled a laundry list of items that makes him fear for a 35% drop in the stock price from current levels.</p>\n<p><b>Apple might be too hyped</b></p>\n<p>Goldman Sach’s Rod Hall is one of those very rare Apple analysts that maintain a sell rating on the stock. While I have not come across research from him that is more recent thanlate January, most of his bearish points still seem relevant today.</p>\n<p>For starters, Goldman does not seem impressed with the near-term smartphone opportunity. According to the research shop, the iPhone 12 resembles a “redesign cycle” rather thana more meaningful “5G super cycle”. As a result, iPhone replacement rates should be low in 2021.</p>\n<p>Still on the same subject, Goldman projects ASP (average selling price) to come down this year, as buyers shift to cheaper models like the iPhone 12 mini and the iPhone 11. Here,recent data points have been suggesting the opposite: the mini seems to be the biggest loser within the product portfolio, while the Pro and Pro Max have been performing above expectations.</p>\n<p>Also, Mr. Hall does not seethe Apple Car opportunityas a profitable initiative.Accordingto him:</p>\n<blockquote>\n “The auto industry has generally lower gross margins than Apple's own current businesses. Tesla's gross margins are about 20%, compared to Apple's 40%. Operating margins are even lower, typically in the high single digits. Even in optimistic scenarios, the release of a production Apple Car is likely to have only a minor impact on Apple's bottom line.”\n</blockquote>\n<p>Lastly, the analyst believes that the end of the COVID-19 crisis will trigger a discretionary spending shift from tech devices (iPhones, Macs) to away-from-home services (travel and leisure). This could be a negative catalyst for the stock in 2021.</p>\n<p><b>The Apple Maven’s take</b></p>\n<p>In my opinion, the market is not the place to cheer for or against a stock. This is what sports arenas are for (after the pandemic is over, of course). So, I think that even the most confident of Apple investors should pay attention to the bearish case on the stock, and think through the arguments critically.</p>\n<p>I think Goldman raises good points about the hype around the 5G super cycle and the Apple Car. Whether either can push Apple’s financial results significantly above current consensus remains to be seen. Meanwhile, the stockseems to have already priced some of the upside.</p>\n<p>I also understand the risk in discretionary spending migrating away from tech hardware, software and services. Just as an example,air travel bookings for the summer seasonhave already started to climb fast. Where will the money to cover these costs come from? A brand-new iPad could be one answer.</p>\n<p>Still, the Apple Maven sees more upside to investing in Apple at current levels than downside risk. In addition to the bullish points on the business fundamentals,the valuation floor and dip-buying opportunityincreases the probability that an investment in Apple today will pay off in the long term.</p>\n<p><b>Twitter speaks</b></p>\n<p>The most bullish analysts say that Apple could head to $225 per share, under the rosiest scenario. The most bearish of them says “not so fast”, and sees 35% downside risk. Who will be proven right?</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/416292f8a70685b7612b592d29c72df6\" tg-width=\"589\" tg-height=\"454\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4e715d243108042b76de007cc2748aed\" tg-width=\"678\" tg-height=\"520\"></p>","source":"lsy1610613172068","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Apple Stock Is Going Down, One Analyst Says. Here’s Why</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nApple Stock Is Going Down, One Analyst Says. Here’s Why\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-03-19 22:25 GMT+8 <a href=https://www.thestreet.com/apple/news/apple-stock-is-going-down-one-analyst-says-heres-why><strong>The Street</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Recently, I laid out the arguments supporting Wall Street’s most bullish of theses on Apple stock. Some of the highlights included the doubling of services and wearables revenues in five years, the 5G...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.thestreet.com/apple/news/apple-stock-is-going-down-one-analyst-says-heres-why\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AAPL":"苹果"},"source_url":"https://www.thestreet.com/apple/news/apple-stock-is-going-down-one-analyst-says-heres-why","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1103756496","content_text":"Recently, I laid out the arguments supporting Wall Street’s most bullish of theses on Apple stock. Some of the highlights included the doubling of services and wearables revenues in five years, the 5G super cycle, the greenfield Apple Car opportunity, and an acceleration in share repurchases.\nNow, I look at the flip side of the coin. How would one support the most bearish argument on Apple shares? At least one analyst has compiled a laundry list of items that makes him fear for a 35% drop in the stock price from current levels.\nApple might be too hyped\nGoldman Sach’s Rod Hall is one of those very rare Apple analysts that maintain a sell rating on the stock. While I have not come across research from him that is more recent thanlate January, most of his bearish points still seem relevant today.\nFor starters, Goldman does not seem impressed with the near-term smartphone opportunity. According to the research shop, the iPhone 12 resembles a “redesign cycle” rather thana more meaningful “5G super cycle”. As a result, iPhone replacement rates should be low in 2021.\nStill on the same subject, Goldman projects ASP (average selling price) to come down this year, as buyers shift to cheaper models like the iPhone 12 mini and the iPhone 11. Here,recent data points have been suggesting the opposite: the mini seems to be the biggest loser within the product portfolio, while the Pro and Pro Max have been performing above expectations.\nAlso, Mr. Hall does not seethe Apple Car opportunityas a profitable initiative.Accordingto him:\n\n “The auto industry has generally lower gross margins than Apple's own current businesses. Tesla's gross margins are about 20%, compared to Apple's 40%. Operating margins are even lower, typically in the high single digits. Even in optimistic scenarios, the release of a production Apple Car is likely to have only a minor impact on Apple's bottom line.”\n\nLastly, the analyst believes that the end of the COVID-19 crisis will trigger a discretionary spending shift from tech devices (iPhones, Macs) to away-from-home services (travel and leisure). This could be a negative catalyst for the stock in 2021.\nThe Apple Maven’s take\nIn my opinion, the market is not the place to cheer for or against a stock. This is what sports arenas are for (after the pandemic is over, of course). So, I think that even the most confident of Apple investors should pay attention to the bearish case on the stock, and think through the arguments critically.\nI think Goldman raises good points about the hype around the 5G super cycle and the Apple Car. Whether either can push Apple’s financial results significantly above current consensus remains to be seen. Meanwhile, the stockseems to have already priced some of the upside.\nI also understand the risk in discretionary spending migrating away from tech hardware, software and services. Just as an example,air travel bookings for the summer seasonhave already started to climb fast. Where will the money to cover these costs come from? A brand-new iPad could be one answer.\nStill, the Apple Maven sees more upside to investing in Apple at current levels than downside risk. In addition to the bullish points on the business fundamentals,the valuation floor and dip-buying opportunityincreases the probability that an investment in Apple today will pay off in the long term.\nTwitter speaks\nThe most bullish analysts say that Apple could head to $225 per share, under the rosiest scenario. The most bearish of them says “not so fast”, and sees 35% downside risk. Who will be proven right?","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":184,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":353569173,"gmtCreate":1616508114592,"gmtModify":1634525456344,"author":{"id":"3579407182839216","authorId":"3579407182839216","name":"littlecub","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3579407182839216","idStr":"3579407182839216"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Good good","listText":"Good good","text":"Good good","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/353569173","repostId":"1128000162","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":214,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":359308111,"gmtCreate":1616334997833,"gmtModify":1634526310862,"author":{"id":"3579407182839216","authorId":"3579407182839216","name":"littlecub","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3579407182839216","idStr":"3579407182839216"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"nice","listText":"nice","text":"nice","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/359308111","repostId":"1103756496","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1103756496","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1616163949,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1103756496?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-03-19 22:25","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Apple Stock Is Going Down, One Analyst Says. Here’s Why","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1103756496","media":"The Street","summary":"Recently, I laid out the arguments supporting Wall Street’s most bullish of theses on Apple stock. Some of the highlights included the doubling of services and wearables revenues in five years, the 5G super cycle, the greenfield Apple Car opportunity, and an acceleration in share repurchases.Now, I look at the flip side of the coin. How would one support the most bearish argument on Apple shares?At least one analyst has compiled a laundry list of items that makes him fear for a 35% drop in the s","content":"<p>Recently, I laid out the arguments supporting Wall Street’s most bullish of theses on Apple stock. Some of the highlights included the doubling of services and wearables revenues in five years, the 5G super cycle, the greenfield Apple Car opportunity, and an acceleration in share repurchases.</p>\n<p>Now, I look at the flip side of the coin. How would one support the most bearish argument on Apple shares? At least one analyst has compiled a laundry list of items that makes him fear for a 35% drop in the stock price from current levels.</p>\n<p><b>Apple might be too hyped</b></p>\n<p>Goldman Sach’s Rod Hall is one of those very rare Apple analysts that maintain a sell rating on the stock. While I have not come across research from him that is more recent thanlate January, most of his bearish points still seem relevant today.</p>\n<p>For starters, Goldman does not seem impressed with the near-term smartphone opportunity. According to the research shop, the iPhone 12 resembles a “redesign cycle” rather thana more meaningful “5G super cycle”. As a result, iPhone replacement rates should be low in 2021.</p>\n<p>Still on the same subject, Goldman projects ASP (average selling price) to come down this year, as buyers shift to cheaper models like the iPhone 12 mini and the iPhone 11. Here,recent data points have been suggesting the opposite: the mini seems to be the biggest loser within the product portfolio, while the Pro and Pro Max have been performing above expectations.</p>\n<p>Also, Mr. Hall does not seethe Apple Car opportunityas a profitable initiative.Accordingto him:</p>\n<blockquote>\n “The auto industry has generally lower gross margins than Apple's own current businesses. Tesla's gross margins are about 20%, compared to Apple's 40%. Operating margins are even lower, typically in the high single digits. Even in optimistic scenarios, the release of a production Apple Car is likely to have only a minor impact on Apple's bottom line.”\n</blockquote>\n<p>Lastly, the analyst believes that the end of the COVID-19 crisis will trigger a discretionary spending shift from tech devices (iPhones, Macs) to away-from-home services (travel and leisure). This could be a negative catalyst for the stock in 2021.</p>\n<p><b>The Apple Maven’s take</b></p>\n<p>In my opinion, the market is not the place to cheer for or against a stock. This is what sports arenas are for (after the pandemic is over, of course). So, I think that even the most confident of Apple investors should pay attention to the bearish case on the stock, and think through the arguments critically.</p>\n<p>I think Goldman raises good points about the hype around the 5G super cycle and the Apple Car. Whether either can push Apple’s financial results significantly above current consensus remains to be seen. Meanwhile, the stockseems to have already priced some of the upside.</p>\n<p>I also understand the risk in discretionary spending migrating away from tech hardware, software and services. Just as an example,air travel bookings for the summer seasonhave already started to climb fast. Where will the money to cover these costs come from? A brand-new iPad could be one answer.</p>\n<p>Still, the Apple Maven sees more upside to investing in Apple at current levels than downside risk. In addition to the bullish points on the business fundamentals,the valuation floor and dip-buying opportunityincreases the probability that an investment in Apple today will pay off in the long term.</p>\n<p><b>Twitter speaks</b></p>\n<p>The most bullish analysts say that Apple could head to $225 per share, under the rosiest scenario. The most bearish of them says “not so fast”, and sees 35% downside risk. Who will be proven right?</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/416292f8a70685b7612b592d29c72df6\" tg-width=\"589\" tg-height=\"454\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4e715d243108042b76de007cc2748aed\" tg-width=\"678\" tg-height=\"520\"></p>","source":"lsy1610613172068","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Apple Stock Is Going Down, One Analyst Says. Here’s Why</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nApple Stock Is Going Down, One Analyst Says. Here’s Why\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-03-19 22:25 GMT+8 <a href=https://www.thestreet.com/apple/news/apple-stock-is-going-down-one-analyst-says-heres-why><strong>The Street</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Recently, I laid out the arguments supporting Wall Street’s most bullish of theses on Apple stock. Some of the highlights included the doubling of services and wearables revenues in five years, the 5G...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.thestreet.com/apple/news/apple-stock-is-going-down-one-analyst-says-heres-why\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AAPL":"苹果"},"source_url":"https://www.thestreet.com/apple/news/apple-stock-is-going-down-one-analyst-says-heres-why","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1103756496","content_text":"Recently, I laid out the arguments supporting Wall Street’s most bullish of theses on Apple stock. Some of the highlights included the doubling of services and wearables revenues in five years, the 5G super cycle, the greenfield Apple Car opportunity, and an acceleration in share repurchases.\nNow, I look at the flip side of the coin. How would one support the most bearish argument on Apple shares? At least one analyst has compiled a laundry list of items that makes him fear for a 35% drop in the stock price from current levels.\nApple might be too hyped\nGoldman Sach’s Rod Hall is one of those very rare Apple analysts that maintain a sell rating on the stock. While I have not come across research from him that is more recent thanlate January, most of his bearish points still seem relevant today.\nFor starters, Goldman does not seem impressed with the near-term smartphone opportunity. According to the research shop, the iPhone 12 resembles a “redesign cycle” rather thana more meaningful “5G super cycle”. As a result, iPhone replacement rates should be low in 2021.\nStill on the same subject, Goldman projects ASP (average selling price) to come down this year, as buyers shift to cheaper models like the iPhone 12 mini and the iPhone 11. Here,recent data points have been suggesting the opposite: the mini seems to be the biggest loser within the product portfolio, while the Pro and Pro Max have been performing above expectations.\nAlso, Mr. Hall does not seethe Apple Car opportunityas a profitable initiative.Accordingto him:\n\n “The auto industry has generally lower gross margins than Apple's own current businesses. Tesla's gross margins are about 20%, compared to Apple's 40%. Operating margins are even lower, typically in the high single digits. Even in optimistic scenarios, the release of a production Apple Car is likely to have only a minor impact on Apple's bottom line.”\n\nLastly, the analyst believes that the end of the COVID-19 crisis will trigger a discretionary spending shift from tech devices (iPhones, Macs) to away-from-home services (travel and leisure). This could be a negative catalyst for the stock in 2021.\nThe Apple Maven’s take\nIn my opinion, the market is not the place to cheer for or against a stock. This is what sports arenas are for (after the pandemic is over, of course). So, I think that even the most confident of Apple investors should pay attention to the bearish case on the stock, and think through the arguments critically.\nI think Goldman raises good points about the hype around the 5G super cycle and the Apple Car. Whether either can push Apple’s financial results significantly above current consensus remains to be seen. Meanwhile, the stockseems to have already priced some of the upside.\nI also understand the risk in discretionary spending migrating away from tech hardware, software and services. Just as an example,air travel bookings for the summer seasonhave already started to climb fast. Where will the money to cover these costs come from? A brand-new iPad could be one answer.\nStill, the Apple Maven sees more upside to investing in Apple at current levels than downside risk. In addition to the bullish points on the business fundamentals,the valuation floor and dip-buying opportunityincreases the probability that an investment in Apple today will pay off in the long term.\nTwitter speaks\nThe most bullish analysts say that Apple could head to $225 per share, under the rosiest scenario. The most bearish of them says “not so fast”, and sees 35% downside risk. Who will be proven right?","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":184,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":353580064,"gmtCreate":1616507679458,"gmtModify":1634525460283,"author":{"id":"3579407182839216","authorId":"3579407182839216","name":"littlecub","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3579407182839216","idStr":"3579407182839216"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Like !!","listText":"Like !!","text":"Like !!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/353580064","repostId":"1182609357","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1182609357","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Providing stock market headlines, business news, financials and earnings ","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Tiger Newspress","id":"1079075236","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1616502280,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1182609357?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-03-23 20:24","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Toplines Before US Market Open on Tuesday","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1182609357","media":"Tiger Newspress","summary":"U.S. stock futures were mixed on TuesdayInvestors are awaiting remarks from Fed Chair Jerome Powell ","content":"<ul><li>U.S. stock futures were mixed on Tuesday</li></ul><ul><li>Investors are awaiting remarks from Fed Chair Jerome Powell and Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen</li></ul><p>U.S. Stock futures were mixed on Tuesday as investors await testimony from Fed. Chair Jerome Powell, who is expected to confirm that the US economy still has some way to go before a recovery can be verified.</p><p>At 8:13 a.m. ET, Dow E-minis were down 130 points, or 0.4%, S&P 500 E-minis were down 14 points, or 0.4% and Nasdaq 100 E-minis were up 8.5 points, or 0.1%.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ab980107884f7e7c98add10a902ed444\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"343\"><span>*Source FromTiger Trade, EST 08:13</span></p><p>The dollar strengthened, while the 10-year U.S.Treasury yield slid for a second day ahead of this week’s offerings, which include a seven-year note, a maturity that fared poorly in last month’s auction.WTI crude oil dropped below $60 a barrel on concerns about the near-term demand outlook.</p><p><b>Stocks making the biggest moves in the premarket:</b></p><p><b>AstraZeneca</b> <b>(AZN) </b>– The drugmaker’s stock fell 2.3% in premarket trading after an independent monitoring board told U.S. health officials that the company may have given incomplete efficacy data from its Covid-19 vaccine trial. The Data Safety Monitoring Board said it wanted AstraZeneca to work with it to review the data to ensure it is accurate and up to date.</p><p><b>Li Auto</b> <b>(LI)</b> – On Tuesday, China's Ministry of industry and information technology released two catalogues of new energy vehicles that previously enjoyed preferential tax treatment, among which Li Auto, Nio,Xpeng and BYD all had models on the list. Affected by this, the shares of Li Auto fell 3.5%, Nio,Xpeng fell 2.4% and NIO fell 1.2% in premarket trading.</p><p><b>Baidu (BIDU) </b>– Baidu made its debut on the Hong Kong stock exchange following a secondary listing that raised $3.1 billion for the China-based internet company. Baidu’s U.S. shares sank 2.7% in premarket trading.</p><p><b>Tencent Music Entertainment (TME) </b>– Tencent Music reported quarterly results that came in slightly below Wall Street forecasts. The music streaming service also announced a multi-year licensing agreement with Warner Music and the formation of a joint venture music label with Warner in China. Tencent shares dropped 5.3% in premarket trading.</p><p><b>Microsoft (MSFT) </b>– Microsoft is in talks to buy videogame chat community Discord for more than $10 billion, according to people familiar with the matter who spoke to Bloomberg. One person familiar with the matter said Discord is more likely to go public than to sell itself, however.</p><p><b>Boeing</b> <b>(BA)</b> – Boeing struck a deal for a $5.28 billion two-year revolving credit agreement, higher than the $4 billion that the jet maker was originally said to be seeking. Boeing shares fell 1% in the premarket.</p><p><b>Bilibili (BILI)</b> – Bilibili is set to raise $2.6 billion following the pricing of a Hong Kong secondary listing, according to people with direct knowledge of the matter who spoke to Reuters. The price for the online video site operator’s stock was said to be 2.6% below its Monday close in U.S. trading.</p><p><b>GameStop(GME)</b> – Shares of videogame retailer GameStop Corp, which is transitioning itself into an ecommerce firm, up 0.8% ahead of its fourth-quarter results due after markets close. The stock has been at the center of a recent retail trading frenzy.</p><p><b>ViacomCBS (VIAC) </b>– ViacomCBS will raise $3 billion from stock offerings, following a recent runup in its stock price. The media company will sell $2 billion in class B common shares and $1 billion in mandatory convertible preferred shares. Media companies with streaming services – like the company’s recently rebranded Paramount+ — have been ramping up spending on new content. Viacom fell 5.9% in premarket action.</p><p><b>SunRun</b> <b>(RUN) </b>– The solar power company’s stock jumped 2.5% in premarket trading after Goldman Sachs upgraded it to “buy” from “neutral,” pointing to accelerating growth and valuation. SunRun gained 4% Monday after being rated “positive” in new coverage at Susquehanna Financial.</p><p><b>Peloton (PTON) </b>– Peloton recently bought three companies in a flurry of acquisitions, according to a Bloomberg report. The fitness equipment maker’s acquisitions involved artificial intelligence, wearables and hardware.</p><p><b>Apollo Global (APO) </b>– The private-equity firm’s shares rose 0.2% in premarket action after Citi upgraded the stock to “buy” from “neutral.” Citi said Apollo’s recent corporate governance moves should reduce headline and other risk factors.</p><p><b>Discovery (DISCA) </b>– Discovery lost 4.6% in premarket trading after UBS downgraded the media company’s stock to “sell” from “neutral,” noting the valuation after the stock nearly quadrupled over the past 12 months. UBS said the risk/reward profile is more challenging at current levels.</p><p><b>Pfizer (PFE) </b>– CEO Albert Bourla told The Wall Street Journal that the drugmakerwould expand its mRNA vaccine businessto target other viruses and pathogens beyond the coronavirus. Bourla said the company gained a decade’s worth of experience in working with Germany’s BioNTech(BNTX) on the Covid-19 vaccine and is now ready to proceed on its own.</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Toplines Before US Market Open on Tuesday</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nToplines Before US Market Open on Tuesday\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1079075236\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Tiger Newspress </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2021-03-23 20:24</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<ul><li>U.S. stock futures were mixed on Tuesday</li></ul><ul><li>Investors are awaiting remarks from Fed Chair Jerome Powell and Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen</li></ul><p>U.S. Stock futures were mixed on Tuesday as investors await testimony from Fed. Chair Jerome Powell, who is expected to confirm that the US economy still has some way to go before a recovery can be verified.</p><p>At 8:13 a.m. ET, Dow E-minis were down 130 points, or 0.4%, S&P 500 E-minis were down 14 points, or 0.4% and Nasdaq 100 E-minis were up 8.5 points, or 0.1%.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ab980107884f7e7c98add10a902ed444\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"343\"><span>*Source FromTiger Trade, EST 08:13</span></p><p>The dollar strengthened, while the 10-year U.S.Treasury yield slid for a second day ahead of this week’s offerings, which include a seven-year note, a maturity that fared poorly in last month’s auction.WTI crude oil dropped below $60 a barrel on concerns about the near-term demand outlook.</p><p><b>Stocks making the biggest moves in the premarket:</b></p><p><b>AstraZeneca</b> <b>(AZN) </b>– The drugmaker’s stock fell 2.3% in premarket trading after an independent monitoring board told U.S. health officials that the company may have given incomplete efficacy data from its Covid-19 vaccine trial. The Data Safety Monitoring Board said it wanted AstraZeneca to work with it to review the data to ensure it is accurate and up to date.</p><p><b>Li Auto</b> <b>(LI)</b> – On Tuesday, China's Ministry of industry and information technology released two catalogues of new energy vehicles that previously enjoyed preferential tax treatment, among which Li Auto, Nio,Xpeng and BYD all had models on the list. Affected by this, the shares of Li Auto fell 3.5%, Nio,Xpeng fell 2.4% and NIO fell 1.2% in premarket trading.</p><p><b>Baidu (BIDU) </b>– Baidu made its debut on the Hong Kong stock exchange following a secondary listing that raised $3.1 billion for the China-based internet company. Baidu’s U.S. shares sank 2.7% in premarket trading.</p><p><b>Tencent Music Entertainment (TME) </b>– Tencent Music reported quarterly results that came in slightly below Wall Street forecasts. The music streaming service also announced a multi-year licensing agreement with Warner Music and the formation of a joint venture music label with Warner in China. Tencent shares dropped 5.3% in premarket trading.</p><p><b>Microsoft (MSFT) </b>– Microsoft is in talks to buy videogame chat community Discord for more than $10 billion, according to people familiar with the matter who spoke to Bloomberg. One person familiar with the matter said Discord is more likely to go public than to sell itself, however.</p><p><b>Boeing</b> <b>(BA)</b> – Boeing struck a deal for a $5.28 billion two-year revolving credit agreement, higher than the $4 billion that the jet maker was originally said to be seeking. Boeing shares fell 1% in the premarket.</p><p><b>Bilibili (BILI)</b> – Bilibili is set to raise $2.6 billion following the pricing of a Hong Kong secondary listing, according to people with direct knowledge of the matter who spoke to Reuters. The price for the online video site operator’s stock was said to be 2.6% below its Monday close in U.S. trading.</p><p><b>GameStop(GME)</b> – Shares of videogame retailer GameStop Corp, which is transitioning itself into an ecommerce firm, up 0.8% ahead of its fourth-quarter results due after markets close. The stock has been at the center of a recent retail trading frenzy.</p><p><b>ViacomCBS (VIAC) </b>– ViacomCBS will raise $3 billion from stock offerings, following a recent runup in its stock price. The media company will sell $2 billion in class B common shares and $1 billion in mandatory convertible preferred shares. Media companies with streaming services – like the company’s recently rebranded Paramount+ — have been ramping up spending on new content. Viacom fell 5.9% in premarket action.</p><p><b>SunRun</b> <b>(RUN) </b>– The solar power company’s stock jumped 2.5% in premarket trading after Goldman Sachs upgraded it to “buy” from “neutral,” pointing to accelerating growth and valuation. SunRun gained 4% Monday after being rated “positive” in new coverage at Susquehanna Financial.</p><p><b>Peloton (PTON) </b>– Peloton recently bought three companies in a flurry of acquisitions, according to a Bloomberg report. The fitness equipment maker’s acquisitions involved artificial intelligence, wearables and hardware.</p><p><b>Apollo Global (APO) </b>– The private-equity firm’s shares rose 0.2% in premarket action after Citi upgraded the stock to “buy” from “neutral.” Citi said Apollo’s recent corporate governance moves should reduce headline and other risk factors.</p><p><b>Discovery (DISCA) </b>– Discovery lost 4.6% in premarket trading after UBS downgraded the media company’s stock to “sell” from “neutral,” noting the valuation after the stock nearly quadrupled over the past 12 months. UBS said the risk/reward profile is more challenging at current levels.</p><p><b>Pfizer (PFE) </b>– CEO Albert Bourla told The Wall Street Journal that the drugmakerwould expand its mRNA vaccine businessto target other viruses and pathogens beyond the coronavirus. Bourla said the company gained a decade’s worth of experience in working with Germany’s BioNTech(BNTX) on the Covid-19 vaccine and is now ready to proceed on its own.</p>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"XPEV":"小鹏汽车",".DJI":"道琼斯","BIDU":"百度",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","BILI":"哔哩哔哩","NIO":"蔚来","GME":"游戏驿站","MSFT":"微软","PFE":"辉瑞",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","AZN":"阿斯利康","LI":"理想汽车"},"is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1182609357","content_text":"U.S. stock futures were mixed on TuesdayInvestors are awaiting remarks from Fed Chair Jerome Powell and Treasury Secretary Janet YellenU.S. Stock futures were mixed on Tuesday as investors await testimony from Fed. Chair Jerome Powell, who is expected to confirm that the US economy still has some way to go before a recovery can be verified.At 8:13 a.m. ET, Dow E-minis were down 130 points, or 0.4%, S&P 500 E-minis were down 14 points, or 0.4% and Nasdaq 100 E-minis were up 8.5 points, or 0.1%.*Source FromTiger Trade, EST 08:13The dollar strengthened, while the 10-year U.S.Treasury yield slid for a second day ahead of this week’s offerings, which include a seven-year note, a maturity that fared poorly in last month’s auction.WTI crude oil dropped below $60 a barrel on concerns about the near-term demand outlook.Stocks making the biggest moves in the premarket:AstraZeneca (AZN) – The drugmaker’s stock fell 2.3% in premarket trading after an independent monitoring board told U.S. health officials that the company may have given incomplete efficacy data from its Covid-19 vaccine trial. The Data Safety Monitoring Board said it wanted AstraZeneca to work with it to review the data to ensure it is accurate and up to date.Li Auto (LI) – On Tuesday, China's Ministry of industry and information technology released two catalogues of new energy vehicles that previously enjoyed preferential tax treatment, among which Li Auto, Nio,Xpeng and BYD all had models on the list. Affected by this, the shares of Li Auto fell 3.5%, Nio,Xpeng fell 2.4% and NIO fell 1.2% in premarket trading.Baidu (BIDU) – Baidu made its debut on the Hong Kong stock exchange following a secondary listing that raised $3.1 billion for the China-based internet company. Baidu’s U.S. shares sank 2.7% in premarket trading.Tencent Music Entertainment (TME) – Tencent Music reported quarterly results that came in slightly below Wall Street forecasts. The music streaming service also announced a multi-year licensing agreement with Warner Music and the formation of a joint venture music label with Warner in China. Tencent shares dropped 5.3% in premarket trading.Microsoft (MSFT) – Microsoft is in talks to buy videogame chat community Discord for more than $10 billion, according to people familiar with the matter who spoke to Bloomberg. One person familiar with the matter said Discord is more likely to go public than to sell itself, however.Boeing (BA) – Boeing struck a deal for a $5.28 billion two-year revolving credit agreement, higher than the $4 billion that the jet maker was originally said to be seeking. Boeing shares fell 1% in the premarket.Bilibili (BILI) – Bilibili is set to raise $2.6 billion following the pricing of a Hong Kong secondary listing, according to people with direct knowledge of the matter who spoke to Reuters. The price for the online video site operator’s stock was said to be 2.6% below its Monday close in U.S. trading.GameStop(GME) – Shares of videogame retailer GameStop Corp, which is transitioning itself into an ecommerce firm, up 0.8% ahead of its fourth-quarter results due after markets close. The stock has been at the center of a recent retail trading frenzy.ViacomCBS (VIAC) – ViacomCBS will raise $3 billion from stock offerings, following a recent runup in its stock price. The media company will sell $2 billion in class B common shares and $1 billion in mandatory convertible preferred shares. Media companies with streaming services – like the company’s recently rebranded Paramount+ — have been ramping up spending on new content. Viacom fell 5.9% in premarket action.SunRun (RUN) – The solar power company’s stock jumped 2.5% in premarket trading after Goldman Sachs upgraded it to “buy” from “neutral,” pointing to accelerating growth and valuation. SunRun gained 4% Monday after being rated “positive” in new coverage at Susquehanna Financial.Peloton (PTON) – Peloton recently bought three companies in a flurry of acquisitions, according to a Bloomberg report. The fitness equipment maker’s acquisitions involved artificial intelligence, wearables and hardware.Apollo Global (APO) – The private-equity firm’s shares rose 0.2% in premarket action after Citi upgraded the stock to “buy” from “neutral.” Citi said Apollo’s recent corporate governance moves should reduce headline and other risk factors.Discovery (DISCA) – Discovery lost 4.6% in premarket trading after UBS downgraded the media company’s stock to “sell” from “neutral,” noting the valuation after the stock nearly quadrupled over the past 12 months. UBS said the risk/reward profile is more challenging at current levels.Pfizer (PFE) – CEO Albert Bourla told The Wall Street Journal that the drugmakerwould expand its mRNA vaccine businessto target other viruses and pathogens beyond the coronavirus. Bourla said the company gained a decade’s worth of experience in working with Germany’s BioNTech(BNTX) on the Covid-19 vaccine and is now ready to proceed on its own.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":579,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}
