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美银新指标为美国处于暂时性恶性通胀观点再添佐证
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[得意] ","listText":"[得意] [得意] ","text":"[得意] [得意]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/166286583","repostId":"1134316154","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":342,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":166286657,"gmtCreate":1624012165079,"gmtModify":1634024149123,"author":{"id":"3577586039692021","authorId":"3577586039692021","name":"Hy9","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3577586039692021","authorIdStr":"3577586039692021"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"[财迷] [财迷] ","listText":"[财迷] [财迷] ","text":"[财迷] [财迷]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/166286657","repostId":"1162014785","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1162014785","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1624011029,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1162014785?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-18 18:10","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"美银新指标为美国处于暂时性恶性通胀观点再添佐证","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1162014785","media":"智通财经 ","summary":"美国银行经济学家Alex Lin在6月17日发表的报告中写道,随着5月核心消费者物价指数(CPI)同比上涨3.8%,人们必须评估加速通胀的因素有多少是暂时性的,又有多少会在中期内持续下去。\n为了更好地","content":"<p>美国银行经济学家Alex Lin在6月17日发表的报告中写道,随着5月核心消费者物价指数(CPI)同比上涨3.8%,人们必须评估加速通胀的因素有多少是暂时性的,又有多少会在中期内持续下去。</p>\n<p>为了更好地进行讨论,他介绍了<b>该行的美国“暂时性通胀”指标。该指标目前处于历史高位,“表明2022年有很大的回调空间。”</b>这也证实了该行上个月的看法:美国目前正处于短暂的恶性通胀时期。</p>\n<p>美银首席投资策略师Michael Hartnett上月底表示,2021年的美国经济与1967-69年的恶性通胀时期最像,当时美国巨额预算赤字导致利率上升,美联储保持超宽松的货币政策,通胀率升至多年高点。</p>\n<p>事实上,早在5月初时,美银就在研报中指出,财报季迄今,企业财报电话会提及“通胀”一词的次数同比已翻了两番,自上周来同比更飙升近800%,这“至少表明未来将出现‘短暂的’恶性通胀”。</p>\n<p>Alex进一步解释道,经济学家长期以来一直试图区分暂时的和持续的通胀。许多地区联邦储备银行已经制定了自己的替代指标,可以通过这些指标来衡量暂时性通胀。基于调查的通胀预期可以提供另一个关于暂时性通胀的重要观点,即消费者和经济学家的看法。美国银行的美国暂时性通胀指标使用了 11 种不同的估计值来说明所有这些信息:</p>\n<p>1. 核心个人消费支出(PCE)物价指数减去达拉斯联储的PCE物价指数截尾均值</p>\n<p>2. 核心PCE物价指数减去旧金山联储的周期性核心PCE物价指数</p>\n<p>3. 核心PCE物价指数减去旧金山联储的PCE物价指数均值</p>\n<p>4. 核心CPI减去克利夫兰联储的CPI截尾均值</p>\n<p>5. 核心CPI减去克利夫兰联储的CPI中值</p>\n<p>6. 核心CPI减去亚特兰大联储的粘性CPI</p>\n<p>7. 核心CPI减去亚特兰大联储的粘性核心CPI</p>\n<p>8. 核心CPI减去纽约联储的基础通胀指标--完整数据</p>\n<p>9. 核心CPI减去纽约联储的基础通胀指标--仅含价格</p>\n<p>10. 专业预测者调查(SPF) 1年期CPI预期低于10年期CPI预期11. 密歇根大学消费者1年的通胀预期低于5-10年的预期</p>\n<p>对于每一个估计值,考虑到它们可能在不同的水平上呈现趋势,这些差值会被所涉及指标之间的历史平均差值进一步调整。例如,从1995年到2019年,旧金山联储的周期性核心PCE物价指数同比增长2.66%,而核心PCE物价指数平均同比增长1.72%,两者之间存在94个基点的历史差值。美国银行认为,这并不反映暂时性的通胀,因此必须根据实时差值进行调整。</p>\n<p>然后,该行对这11个估计值取一个简单的平均数,并计算到2020年2月(即大流行开始之前)这一平均数的分布。美国银行的短期通胀指标是基于每个数据点相对于该分布的位置。最左侧尾部(例如2020年4月)的仪表板得分接近-100,分布的中位数得分为零,最右侧尾部的得分(就像我们在5月看到的)接近+100。</p>\n<p>在这样的背景下,<b>美国银行宣称,其指标目前处于历史高位,但显示明年有很大的回调空间。它还表明,通胀——无论是永久性的还是暂时性的——从未上涨得如此之快!简言之,就是恶性通胀。</b></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/50b99b9ee14fbc9e792055eee4ae62f4\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"508\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>知名财经博客指出,如上所述,美银通胀指标本身并没有给人一种持续通胀的感觉,只是在更广泛的核心通胀方面有偏差。尽管如此,隐含的“持续”(非暂时性的)趋势与暂时性通胀一起上升,核心PCE物价指数达到2.3%,核心CPI达到2.5%。对美银经济学家来说,这“表明随着暂时性通胀压力的缓解,核心通胀率很可能会稳定在美联储2%的目标之上。”</p>\n<p>Alex同时表示,短期通胀指标高企表明,持续的通胀趋势可能远低于当前的核心通胀数据。因此,当暂时性因素在中期逐渐消退,通胀可能会急剧放缓。</p>\n<p>那么,应该如何追踪关键数据来评估持续通胀的风险?美国银行推荐了三个因素:</p>\n<p>• <b>粘性通胀指标</b>:这些是通胀的组成部分,波动性往往较小,更多地受商业周期影响。最大的是业主等价租金(OER)。5 月份 OER 环比加速升至 0.3%,恢复大流行前的趋势,因此预示着重返通胀目标水平。</p>\n<p>• <b>工资</b>:工资上涨将带来更大的通胀压力。供应瓶颈和劳动力短缺支撑了近期的工资增长。虽然随着这些限制在今年晚些时候缓解,工资可能会有所趋缓,但美银预计到2022 年底工资增长将加快,就业成本指数同比增长超过 3%。</p>\n<p>• <b>长期通胀预期</b>:不断上升的预期将使暂时性通胀变为永久性的。价格再三上涨能够刺激通胀预期。密歇根大学 5-10 年通胀预期在 5 月份达到 3.0%,为自2013 年以来的最高水平,然后在 6 月份初步调查中回落至 2.8%。在专业预测者调查指标和基于市场的指标(例如 10 年盈亏平衡通胀率等)中也看到了类似的变化。</p>\n<p>电影《大空头》的原型人物MichaelBurry几个月前曾频繁发布推文警告,美国正在一步步变成魏玛共和国:贫富悬殊、投机狂潮、垃圾公司、美元“坠入深渊”。在他看来,2010-2021年是恶性通胀的孕育期,类似于魏玛的1914-1923年。</p>\n<p>美国知名经济学家、ShadowStats.com创始人威廉姆斯(John Williams) 近日也在USAWatchdog.com的一档节目中表示,美联储已经把自己置身于两难境地,面临的选项只有 “通货膨胀或内爆”。他认为,美国最终会陷入恶性通胀的经济崩溃。由于美联储一直在以前所未有的速度印钱,基本上同比增速达到了75%,而正常情况下同比增速仅为1%或2%。因此,爆炸性的货币供应将导致通胀达到4%或5%的范围,而且“很快会达到每年10%的范围……美联储已经失去了对通胀的控制。”</p>","source":"highlight_zhitongcaijin","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" 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height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n美银新指标为美国处于暂时性恶性通胀观点再添佐证\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-06-18 18:10 北京时间 <a href=https://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/496814.html><strong>智通财经 </strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>美国银行经济学家Alex Lin在6月17日发表的报告中写道,随着5月核心消费者物价指数(CPI)同比上涨3.8%,人们必须评估加速通胀的因素有多少是暂时性的,又有多少会在中期内持续下去。\n为了更好地进行讨论,他介绍了该行的美国“暂时性通胀”指标。该指标目前处于历史高位,“表明2022年有很大的回调空间。”这也证实了该行上个月的看法:美国目前正处于短暂的恶性通胀时期。\n美银首席投资策略师...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/496814.html\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1c7221d934f1008e531bdf79c8cfe0ee","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/496814.html","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/6ca2dcdccfa2217fb20a0351f4efe814","article_id":"1162014785","content_text":"美国银行经济学家Alex Lin在6月17日发表的报告中写道,随着5月核心消费者物价指数(CPI)同比上涨3.8%,人们必须评估加速通胀的因素有多少是暂时性的,又有多少会在中期内持续下去。\n为了更好地进行讨论,他介绍了该行的美国“暂时性通胀”指标。该指标目前处于历史高位,“表明2022年有很大的回调空间。”这也证实了该行上个月的看法:美国目前正处于短暂的恶性通胀时期。\n美银首席投资策略师Michael Hartnett上月底表示,2021年的美国经济与1967-69年的恶性通胀时期最像,当时美国巨额预算赤字导致利率上升,美联储保持超宽松的货币政策,通胀率升至多年高点。\n事实上,早在5月初时,美银就在研报中指出,财报季迄今,企业财报电话会提及“通胀”一词的次数同比已翻了两番,自上周来同比更飙升近800%,这“至少表明未来将出现‘短暂的’恶性通胀”。\nAlex进一步解释道,经济学家长期以来一直试图区分暂时的和持续的通胀。许多地区联邦储备银行已经制定了自己的替代指标,可以通过这些指标来衡量暂时性通胀。基于调查的通胀预期可以提供另一个关于暂时性通胀的重要观点,即消费者和经济学家的看法。美国银行的美国暂时性通胀指标使用了 11 种不同的估计值来说明所有这些信息:\n1. 核心个人消费支出(PCE)物价指数减去达拉斯联储的PCE物价指数截尾均值\n2. 核心PCE物价指数减去旧金山联储的周期性核心PCE物价指数\n3. 核心PCE物价指数减去旧金山联储的PCE物价指数均值\n4. 核心CPI减去克利夫兰联储的CPI截尾均值\n5. 核心CPI减去克利夫兰联储的CPI中值\n6. 核心CPI减去亚特兰大联储的粘性CPI\n7. 核心CPI减去亚特兰大联储的粘性核心CPI\n8. 核心CPI减去纽约联储的基础通胀指标--完整数据\n9. 核心CPI减去纽约联储的基础通胀指标--仅含价格\n10. 专业预测者调查(SPF) 1年期CPI预期低于10年期CPI预期11. 密歇根大学消费者1年的通胀预期低于5-10年的预期\n对于每一个估计值,考虑到它们可能在不同的水平上呈现趋势,这些差值会被所涉及指标之间的历史平均差值进一步调整。例如,从1995年到2019年,旧金山联储的周期性核心PCE物价指数同比增长2.66%,而核心PCE物价指数平均同比增长1.72%,两者之间存在94个基点的历史差值。美国银行认为,这并不反映暂时性的通胀,因此必须根据实时差值进行调整。\n然后,该行对这11个估计值取一个简单的平均数,并计算到2020年2月(即大流行开始之前)这一平均数的分布。美国银行的短期通胀指标是基于每个数据点相对于该分布的位置。最左侧尾部(例如2020年4月)的仪表板得分接近-100,分布的中位数得分为零,最右侧尾部的得分(就像我们在5月看到的)接近+100。\n在这样的背景下,美国银行宣称,其指标目前处于历史高位,但显示明年有很大的回调空间。它还表明,通胀——无论是永久性的还是暂时性的——从未上涨得如此之快!简言之,就是恶性通胀。\n\n知名财经博客指出,如上所述,美银通胀指标本身并没有给人一种持续通胀的感觉,只是在更广泛的核心通胀方面有偏差。尽管如此,隐含的“持续”(非暂时性的)趋势与暂时性通胀一起上升,核心PCE物价指数达到2.3%,核心CPI达到2.5%。对美银经济学家来说,这“表明随着暂时性通胀压力的缓解,核心通胀率很可能会稳定在美联储2%的目标之上。”\nAlex同时表示,短期通胀指标高企表明,持续的通胀趋势可能远低于当前的核心通胀数据。因此,当暂时性因素在中期逐渐消退,通胀可能会急剧放缓。\n那么,应该如何追踪关键数据来评估持续通胀的风险?美国银行推荐了三个因素:\n• 粘性通胀指标:这些是通胀的组成部分,波动性往往较小,更多地受商业周期影响。最大的是业主等价租金(OER)。5 月份 OER 环比加速升至 0.3%,恢复大流行前的趋势,因此预示着重返通胀目标水平。\n• 工资:工资上涨将带来更大的通胀压力。供应瓶颈和劳动力短缺支撑了近期的工资增长。虽然随着这些限制在今年晚些时候缓解,工资可能会有所趋缓,但美银预计到2022 年底工资增长将加快,就业成本指数同比增长超过 3%。\n• 长期通胀预期:不断上升的预期将使暂时性通胀变为永久性的。价格再三上涨能够刺激通胀预期。密歇根大学 5-10 年通胀预期在 5 月份达到 3.0%,为自2013 年以来的最高水平,然后在 6 月份初步调查中回落至 2.8%。在专业预测者调查指标和基于市场的指标(例如 10 年盈亏平衡通胀率等)中也看到了类似的变化。\n电影《大空头》的原型人物MichaelBurry几个月前曾频繁发布推文警告,美国正在一步步变成魏玛共和国:贫富悬殊、投机狂潮、垃圾公司、美元“坠入深渊”。在他看来,2010-2021年是恶性通胀的孕育期,类似于魏玛的1914-1923年。\n美国知名经济学家、ShadowStats.com创始人威廉姆斯(John Williams) 近日也在USAWatchdog.com的一档节目中表示,美联储已经把自己置身于两难境地,面临的选项只有 “通货膨胀或内爆”。他认为,美国最终会陷入恶性通胀的经济崩溃。由于美联储一直在以前所未有的速度印钱,基本上同比增速达到了75%,而正常情况下同比增速仅为1%或2%。因此,爆炸性的货币供应将导致通胀达到4%或5%的范围,而且“很快会达到每年10%的范围……美联储已经失去了对通胀的控制。”","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":115,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":166286101,"gmtCreate":1624012154703,"gmtModify":1634024149362,"author":{"id":"3577586039692021","authorId":"3577586039692021","name":"Hy9","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3577586039692021","authorIdStr":"3577586039692021"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"[强] [强] ","listText":"[强] [强] ","text":"[强] 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