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SC_121

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2021-12-19

$MRNA(MRNA)$good

2021-11-15

Tks

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2021-10-25

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2021-09-28

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2021-09-23

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2021-09-22

Tkw

@Ivan_甘灿荣:一定要留意这一周：美股到了关键点位，推荐一个交易策略

2021-09-22

Tks

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2021-09-15

Nice

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2021-09-13

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2021-08-31

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2021-08-18

Great

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2021-08-16

[Happy] [Happy] [Happy]

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2021-08-13

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2021-08-07

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2021-08-05

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2021-08-04

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2021-08-03

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2021-08-02

@牧财鲸_踩不到热点版:关于中概股的一点看法

2021-07-31

Thabjs

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2021-07-31

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调整幅度有多大很难确定，毕竟没有黑天鹅事件，更多的是利空事件的兑现。但最少上涨速度会大大下降，对付这种市场最好的办法，还是对冲。 （标普近期顶部在4549，仍符合区间特点） 所以这里还是给大家分享几个美股的对冲策略，既有宏观的，也有微观的，看对大家是否合适。 一、买A股国企股价便宜的个股、空美股指 自从A股眉飞色舞以来，股市相对活跃，与去年不同的是，今年A股虽然指数涨幅不大（慢牛），但低价个股活跃度很高。而历来如果A股有牛市，低价股通常不会缺席（涨幅要看有没有消息配合），叠加最近大宗商品的通胀预期，资源类的低价股大家都可以关注。 而美股指进入高位区间，涨幅会受到限制，因此担心系统性风险的话，做空美股指会比较合适，从而形成了一个宏观的对冲组合。 （连中石油都能大涨50%，其它个股也就不应该太悲观了） 二、持有美股，做空美股指 对于坚定持有美股的朋友来说，美股指有风险，自然也可以用做空美股指的方式来对冲一定的风险。美股指近期已接近60日均线附近，也是近期美股很重要的多空分水岭，若有效跌穿，可能会引起较大调整。（大伙别掉以轻心，美股指若调整10%，很多美股跌幅比这个大得多） 做空美股指的止损，可分批进入，一半以20日均线来止损，另一半可以新高作为止损。 三、多道指/标普，空纳指 纳指波动性比道指强，跌下来幅度也比道指较多。当前纳指道指比价仍处于历史高位，中长期来说该价位介入仍不算吃亏，但该组合的平仓时机不容易把握，除非纳指系个股出现系统性利空，不然也只能短期投机一把，还不如策略一来的稳妥。 四、关于其它策略 虽然美股指看空，作为对冲手段来说，是一","listText":"上周给大家讲过，A股和美股进入到强弱反转特征，美股指弱势，但A股个股表现强势。其实美国有啥利空消息，已经不需要我多说了，Delta疫情的肆虐，美联储年底的Taper，美国债务上限，任何一个都可以是下跌的理由，毕竟涨多了出现调整是正常的。 调整幅度有多大很难确定，毕竟没有黑天鹅事件，更多的是利空事件的兑现。但最少上涨速度会大大下降，对付这种市场最好的办法，还是对冲。 （标普近期顶部在4549，仍符合区间特点） 所以这里还是给大家分享几个美股的对冲策略，既有宏观的，也有微观的，看对大家是否合适。 一、买A股国企股价便宜的个股、空美股指 自从A股眉飞色舞以来，股市相对活跃，与去年不同的是，今年A股虽然指数涨幅不大（慢牛），但低价个股活跃度很高。而历来如果A股有牛市，低价股通常不会缺席（涨幅要看有没有消息配合），叠加最近大宗商品的通胀预期，资源类的低价股大家都可以关注。 而美股指进入高位区间，涨幅会受到限制，因此担心系统性风险的话，做空美股指会比较合适，从而形成了一个宏观的对冲组合。 （连中石油都能大涨50%，其它个股也就不应该太悲观了） 二、持有美股，做空美股指 对于坚定持有美股的朋友来说，美股指有风险，自然也可以用做空美股指的方式来对冲一定的风险。美股指近期已接近60日均线附近，也是近期美股很重要的多空分水岭，若有效跌穿，可能会引起较大调整。（大伙别掉以轻心，美股指若调整10%，很多美股跌幅比这个大得多） 做空美股指的止损，可分批进入，一半以20日均线来止损，另一半可以新高作为止损。 三、多道指/标普，空纳指 纳指波动性比道指强，跌下来幅度也比道指较多。当前纳指道指比价仍处于历史高位，中长期来说该价位介入仍不算吃亏，但该组合的平仓时机不容易把握，除非纳指系个股出现系统性利空，不然也只能短期投机一把，还不如策略一来的稳妥。 四、关于其它策略 虽然美股指看空，作为对冲手段来说，是一","text":"上周给大家讲过，A股和美股进入到强弱反转特征，美股指弱势，但A股个股表现强势。其实美国有啥利空消息，已经不需要我多说了，Delta疫情的肆虐，美联储年底的Taper，美国债务上限，任何一个都可以是下跌的理由，毕竟涨多了出现调整是正常的。 调整幅度有多大很难确定，毕竟没有黑天鹅事件，更多的是利空事件的兑现。但最少上涨速度会大大下降，对付这种市场最好的办法，还是对冲。 （标普近期顶部在4549，仍符合区间特点） 所以这里还是给大家分享几个美股的对冲策略，既有宏观的，也有微观的，看对大家是否合适。 一、买A股国企股价便宜的个股、空美股指 自从A股眉飞色舞以来，股市相对活跃，与去年不同的是，今年A股虽然指数涨幅不大（慢牛），但低价个股活跃度很高。而历来如果A股有牛市，低价股通常不会缺席（涨幅要看有没有消息配合），叠加最近大宗商品的通胀预期，资源类的低价股大家都可以关注。 而美股指进入高位区间，涨幅会受到限制，因此担心系统性风险的话，做空美股指会比较合适，从而形成了一个宏观的对冲组合。 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在一个长期投资组合中，持有8-10只股票，平均每只仓位在10%左右是我个人认为最舒适的配置。特别看好的标的，仓位也最好不要超过20%。这样的话，即使一只股票发生腰斩，总资金的损失也只在5%-10%之间。整体影响不会很大。 数据表明，如果账户回撤超过20%，挽回损失会开始变得困难。账户回撤超过40%，就很难做到长期稳定了。而长期稳定是一个投资者能够在股市中生存下去的基础。 我曾经讲过财富增长曲线。 正向的财富增长曲线应该是长时间微小震荡，几乎没什么变化。最终偶尔一两次的剧烈增长使财富得到突破。 而不应该是长期增长最后直线坠落，也不应该是像心电图一样大起大落。 正向的财富增长曲线： 错误的财富增长曲线： 一些人觉得看准了就是应该满仓干。但问题是你如何来定义这个“看准”？是不是买了赚了就叫做看准，亏了就叫做没看准？并且以自己的认知和专业程度，这个“看准”又有多少水分呢？这可能是一个值得思考的问题。 除了仓位管理，我们还要注意投资组合的单一性风险。 即不要全买同一板块，或同一类型的股票。比如全买中概股，或全买科技股。因为这样即","listText":"今天主要针对最近暴跌的中概股分享一些看法和思考。 第一，关于这次事件我也研究了很多，其中我很认同的一种看法是此次事件是针对“第一次分配”的改革。这个话题不好展开说，不懂的可以搜一下“三次分配理论”。 中国历史上很多朝代走到终点都是因为贫富差距过大，不同阶层的人口比例失衡。所以现在提早做这样的事情也不难理解。 但这样的改革必然会影响公司未来的利润率，并且这个影响的时间还没有定数。因此最近情绪虽然有所平复，但长期预期肯定是不如以往。我认为至少未来半年到一年内会是这样，所以仓位上还是应该谨慎。 第二，左侧逆势加仓一定一定要重视资金管理，不要加仓加到最后爆仓了。 最近我了解到很多人都爆仓了。先是重仓在线教育的，再是重仓中概股的。在我看来，他们的仓位管理本身是致命的。 在一个长期投资组合中，持有8-10只股票，平均每只仓位在10%左右是我个人认为最舒适的配置。特别看好的标的，仓位也最好不要超过20%。这样的话，即使一只股票发生腰斩，总资金的损失也只在5%-10%之间。整体影响不会很大。 数据表明，如果账户回撤超过20%，挽回损失会开始变得困难。账户回撤超过40%，就很难做到长期稳定了。而长期稳定是一个投资者能够在股市中生存下去的基础。 我曾经讲过财富增长曲线。 正向的财富增长曲线应该是长时间微小震荡，几乎没什么变化。最终偶尔一两次的剧烈增长使财富得到突破。 而不应该是长期增长最后直线坠落，也不应该是像心电图一样大起大落。 正向的财富增长曲线： 错误的财富增长曲线： 一些人觉得看准了就是应该满仓干。但问题是你如何来定义这个“看准”？是不是买了赚了就叫做看准，亏了就叫做没看准？并且以自己的认知和专业程度，这个“看准”又有多少水分呢？这可能是一个值得思考的问题。 除了仓位管理，我们还要注意投资组合的单一性风险。 即不要全买同一板块，或同一类型的股票。比如全买中概股，或全买科技股。因为这样即","text":"今天主要针对最近暴跌的中概股分享一些看法和思考。 第一，关于这次事件我也研究了很多，其中我很认同的一种看法是此次事件是针对“第一次分配”的改革。这个话题不好展开说，不懂的可以搜一下“三次分配理论”。 中国历史上很多朝代走到终点都是因为贫富差距过大，不同阶层的人口比例失衡。所以现在提早做这样的事情也不难理解。 但这样的改革必然会影响公司未来的利润率，并且这个影响的时间还没有定数。因此最近情绪虽然有所平复，但长期预期肯定是不如以往。我认为至少未来半年到一年内会是这样，所以仓位上还是应该谨慎。 第二，左侧逆势加仓一定一定要重视资金管理，不要加仓加到最后爆仓了。 最近我了解到很多人都爆仓了。先是重仓在线教育的，再是重仓中概股的。在我看来，他们的仓位管理本身是致命的。 在一个长期投资组合中，持有8-10只股票，平均每只仓位在10%左右是我个人认为最舒适的配置。特别看好的标的，仓位也最好不要超过20%。这样的话，即使一只股票发生腰斩，总资金的损失也只在5%-10%之间。整体影响不会很大。 数据表明，如果账户回撤超过20%，挽回损失会开始变得困难。账户回撤超过40%，就很难做到长期稳定了。而长期稳定是一个投资者能够在股市中生存下去的基础。 我曾经讲过财富增长曲线。 正向的财富增长曲线应该是长时间微小震荡，几乎没什么变化。最终偶尔一两次的剧烈增长使财富得到突破。 而不应该是长期增长最后直线坠落，也不应该是像心电图一样大起大落。 正向的财富增长曲线： 错误的财富增长曲线： 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