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YJJJJ

YJJJJ

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2021-07-22

Another drop?

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2021-07-22

Xpeng seems to raise alot alot

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2021-07-22

$MAPLETREE COMMERCIAL TRUST(N2IU.SI)$Wow increase after a week of low

2021-07-20

$CapLand IntCom T(C38U.SI)$drop cos of covidcase baa

2021-07-19

Ohnooo

抱歉，原内容已删除

2021-07-19

$DJIA(.DJI)$Correction?

2021-07-19

Why dipppp

Morgan Stanley: This Cycle Will Be "Hotter But Shorter" Than Usual

2021-07-19

$CapLand IntCom T(C38U.SI)$why

2021-07-16

China?

抱歉，原内容已删除

2021-07-16

Jiayous

2021-07-14

$AMC Entertainment(AMC)$Everyday i see amc price drop by $2-3, how long can the price drop

2021-07-14

$CapLand IntCom T(C38U.SI)$Why drop

2021-07-13

$JD LOGISTICS(02618)$:(

2021-07-12

$AMC Entertainment(AMC)$why its dropping agn worrrr

2021-07-12

Interesting

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2021-07-12

Wow

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2021-07-09

$AMC Entertainment(AMC)$Stay! Woohoo

2021-07-09

Buy at dip

抱歉，原内容已删除

2021-07-09

$AMC Entertainment(AMC)$Yay! Lucky did not sold and ita giving me a surprise always!

2021-07-09

Welldone

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er drop?","listText":"Another drop?","text":"Another drop?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/172831953","repostId":"2153408396","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":509,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":172923244,"gmtCreate":1626928654788,"gmtModify":1631891322828,"author":{"id":"3577405401653046","authorId":"3577405401653046","name":"YJJJJ","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fb972e7197c5c97153beaf02f46a2cb1","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3577405401653046","authorIdStr":"3577405401653046"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Xpeng seems to raise alot alot","listText":"Xpeng seems to raise alot alot","text":"Xpeng seems to raise alot alot","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/172923244","repostId":"2153123625","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":359,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":172920552,"gmtCreate":1626928487376,"gmtModify":1631888414897,"author":{"id":"3577405401653046","authorId":"3577405401653046","name":"YJJJJ","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fb972e7197c5c97153beaf02f46a2cb1","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3577405401653046","authorIdStr":"3577405401653046"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/N2IU.SI\">$MAPLETREE COMMERCIAL TRUST(N2IU.SI)$</a>Wow increase after a week of low","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/N2IU.SI\">$MAPLETREE COMMERCIAL TRUST(N2IU.SI)$</a>Wow increase after a week of low","text":"$MAPLETREE COMMERCIAL TRUST(N2IU.SI)$Wow increase after a week of low","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/172920552","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":416,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":171556446,"gmtCreate":1626752119085,"gmtModify":1631888969079,"author":{"id":"3577405401653046","authorId":"3577405401653046","name":"YJJJJ","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fb972e7197c5c97153beaf02f46a2cb1","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3577405401653046","authorIdStr":"3577405401653046"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/C38U.SI\">$CapLand IntCom T(C38U.SI)$</a>drop cos of covidcase baa","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/C38U.SI\">$CapLand IntCom T(C38U.SI)$</a>drop cos of covidcase baa","text":"$CapLand IntCom T(C38U.SI)$drop cos of covidcase baa","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a4938b1238dcc38096fd578ca3e92227","width":"828","height":"1434"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/171556446","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":489,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":171926575,"gmtCreate":1626703245897,"gmtModify":1631891322833,"author":{"id":"3577405401653046","authorId":"3577405401653046","name":"YJJJJ","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fb972e7197c5c97153beaf02f46a2cb1","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3577405401653046","authorIdStr":"3577405401653046"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Ohnooo","listText":"Ohnooo","text":"Ohnooo","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/171926575","repostId":"1143265655","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":388,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":171926840,"gmtCreate":1626703223680,"gmtModify":1631891322837,"author":{"id":"3577405401653046","authorId":"3577405401653046","name":"YJJJJ","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fb972e7197c5c97153beaf02f46a2cb1","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3577405401653046","authorIdStr":"3577405401653046"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/.DJI\">$DJIA(.DJI)$</a>Correction?","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/.DJI\">$DJIA(.DJI)$</a>Correction?","text":"$DJIA(.DJI)$Correction?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/171926840","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1397,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":171928853,"gmtCreate":1626703193872,"gmtModify":1631891322839,"author":{"id":"3577405401653046","authorId":"3577405401653046","name":"YJJJJ","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fb972e7197c5c97153beaf02f46a2cb1","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3577405401653046","authorIdStr":"3577405401653046"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Why dipppp","listText":"Why dipppp","text":"Why dipppp","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/171928853","repostId":"1146536243","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1146536243","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1626683272,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1146536243?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-07-19 16:27","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Morgan Stanley: This Cycle Will Be \"Hotter But Shorter\" Than Usual","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1146536243","media":"zerohedge","summary":"This cycle is unusual. Most 'normal' cycles are. We think that the recovery is sustainable and more likely to be ‘hotter and shorter’. Sell Treasuries and trust the expansion.","content":"<html><body><p>We think that this economic cycle will be normal, strong and short. Each of these assumptions is being hotly debated by the market. Each is key to our investment strategy.</p>\n<p>The debate over cycle 'normalcy' is self-explanatory. The pandemic created, without exaggeration, the single sharpest decline in output in recorded history. Then activity raced back, helped by policy support. The case for viewing this situation as unique, and distinct from other cyclical experiences, is based on the view that a fall and rise this violent never allowed for a traditional 'reset'.</p>\n<p>But 'normal' in markets is a funny concept, with the rough edges of memory often smoothed and polished by the passage of time. The cycle of 2003-07 ended with the largest banking and housing crisis since the Great Depression. The cycle of 1992-2000 ended with the bursting of an enormous equity bubble, widespread accounting fraud and unspeakable tragedy. 'Normal' cycles are nice in theory, harder in practice.</p>\n<p>Instead, let’s consider why we use the term ‘cycle’ at all. Economies and markets tend to follow cyclical patterns, patterns that tend to show up in market performance. It is those patterns we care about, and if they still apply, they can provide a useful guide in uncertain terrain.</p>\n<p>Was last year’s recession preceded by late-cycle conditions such as an inverted yield curve, low volatility, low unemployment, high consumer confidence and narrowing equity market breadth? It was. Did the resulting troughs in equities, credit, yields and yield curves match the usual cadence between market and economic lows? They did. And were the leaders of the ensuing rally the usual early-cycle winners, like small and cyclical stocks, high yield credit and industrial metals? They were.</p>\n<p>If it walks like a duck and quacks like a duck, we think that it’s a normal cycle. Or as normal as these things realistically are. If a lot of 'normal' cycle behavior has played out so far, it should <i>continue</i> to do so.</p>\n<p>Specifically, this relates to patterns of performance as the market recovers. And as that recovery advances, those patterns should shift. As noted by my colleague Michael Wilson, we think that we are moving to a mid-cycle market, despite being just 16 months removed from the lows of economic activity. We see a number of similarities between current conditions and 1H04, a mid-cycle period that followed a large, reflationary rally. And importantly, despite recent fears about growth, we think that the global recovery will keep pushing on (see The Growth Scare Anniversary, July 11, 2021).</p>\n<p>Because one can always find an indicator that fits their particular cycle view, we’ve long been fans of a composite. That’s our ‘cycle model’, which combines ten US metrics across macro, the credit cycle and corporate aggression to gauge where we are in the market cycle. After moving into late-cycle ‘downturn’ in June 2019, and early-cycle ‘repair’ in April 2020, it’s rocketed higher.<b>It has risen so fast that it’s blown right past what should be the next phase ('recovery'), and moved right into ‘expansion’.</b></p>\n<p><img referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/41879c4f66b33597ee236bdd52841004\" tg-height=\"490\" tg-width=\"904\"/>Thisis unusual. ‘Expansion’ is meant to capture conditions that are 'better than normal, and improving',<b>and since 1980, it has taken an average of 35 months to get there after 'downturn' ends</b>. Its speedy arrival speaks to a speedy recovery powered by enormous policy support.<b>It also hints at another possibility: this hotter cycle could be shorter.</b>This is our thesis, and it’s showing up in our quantitative measure.</p>\n<p>All this has a number of implications:</p>\n<ul>\n<li><b>The shorter the cycle, the worse for credit relative to other risky assets; credit enjoys fewer of the gains from the 'boom', is exposed if the next downturn is early, and faces more supply as corporate confidence increases</b>. In the ‘expansion’ phase of our cycle model, US IG and HY credit N12M excess returns are 29bp and 161bp worse than average, respectively.</li>\n<li><b>In many of those periods, more mixed credit performance occurs despite default rates remaining low</b>. Investors should try to take default risk over spread risk: our credit strategists like owning CDX HY 0-15%, and hedging with CDX IG payer spreads.</li>\n<li><b>In equities, we think that our model supports more balance in portfolios</b>. We like healthcare in both the US and Europe as a sector with several nice factor exposures: quality, low valuation, high carry and low volatility. Globally, equities in Europe and Japan have tended to outperform 'mid-cycle', and we think that they can do so again.</li>\n<li><b>Interest rates are too pessimistic on the recovery. US 10-year Treasury N12M returns are 97bp worse than average during the ‘expansion’ phase of our cycle model</b>. Guneet Dhingra and our US interest rate strategy team have moved underweight US 10-year Treasuries, and we in turn have moved back underweight government bonds in our global asset allocation.</li>\n</ul>\n<p>This cycle is unusual. Most 'normal' cycles are. We think that the recovery is sustainable and more likely to be ‘hotter and shorter’. Sell Treasuries and trust the expansion.</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" http-equiv=\"Content-Type\"/>\n<meta content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\" name=\"viewport\"/>\n<meta content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" name=\"format-detection\"/>\n<title>Morgan Stanley: This Cycle Will Be \"Hotter But Shorter\" Than Usual</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nMorgan Stanley: This Cycle Will Be \"Hotter But Shorter\" Than Usual\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-07-19 16:27 GMT+8   <a href=\"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/morgan-stanley-cycle-will-be-hotter-shorter-usual\"><strong>zerohedge</strong></a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>We think that this economic cycle will be normal, strong and short. Each of these assumptions is being hotly debated by the market. Each is key to our investment strategy.\nThe debate over cycle '...</p>\n<a href=\"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/morgan-stanley-cycle-will-be-hotter-shorter-usual\">Web Link</a>\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"SPY":"标普500ETF",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/morgan-stanley-cycle-will-be-hotter-shorter-usual","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1146536243","content_text":"We think that this economic cycle will be normal, strong and short. Each of these assumptions is being hotly debated by the market. Each is key to our investment strategy.\nThe debate over cycle 'normalcy' is self-explanatory. The pandemic created, without exaggeration, the single sharpest decline in output in recorded history. Then activity raced back, helped by policy support. The case for viewing this situation as unique, and distinct from other cyclical experiences, is based on the view that a fall and rise this violent never allowed for a traditional 'reset'.\nBut 'normal' in markets is a funny concept, with the rough edges of memory often smoothed and polished by the passage of time. The cycle of 2003-07 ended with the largest banking and housing crisis since the Great Depression. The cycle of 1992-2000 ended with the bursting of an enormous equity bubble, widespread accounting fraud and unspeakable tragedy. 'Normal' cycles are nice in theory, harder in practice.\nInstead, let’s consider why we use the term ‘cycle’ at all. Economies and markets tend to follow cyclical patterns, patterns that tend to show up in market performance. It is those patterns we care about, and if they still apply, they can provide a useful guide in uncertain terrain.\nWas last year’s recession preceded by late-cycle conditions such as an inverted yield curve, low volatility, low unemployment, high consumer confidence and narrowing equity market breadth? It was. Did the resulting troughs in equities, credit, yields and yield curves match the usual cadence between market and economic lows? They did. And were the leaders of the ensuing rally the usual early-cycle winners, like small and cyclical stocks, high yield credit and industrial metals? They were.\nIf it walks like a duck and quacks like a duck, we think that it’s a normal cycle. Or as normal as these things realistically are. If a lot of 'normal' cycle behavior has played out so far, it should continue to do so.\nSpecifically, this relates to patterns of performance as the market recovers. And as that recovery advances, those patterns should shift. As noted by my colleague Michael Wilson, we think that we are moving to a mid-cycle market, despite being just 16 months removed from the lows of economic activity. We see a number of similarities between current conditions and 1H04, a mid-cycle period that followed a large, reflationary rally. And importantly, despite recent fears about growth, we think that the global recovery will keep pushing on (see The Growth Scare Anniversary, July 11, 2021).\nBecause one can always find an indicator that fits their particular cycle view, we’ve long been fans of a composite. That’s our ‘cycle model’, which combines ten US metrics across macro, the credit cycle and corporate aggression to gauge where we are in the market cycle. After moving into late-cycle ‘downturn’ in June 2019, and early-cycle ‘repair’ in April 2020, it’s rocketed higher.It has risen so fast that it’s blown right past what should be the next phase ('recovery'), and moved right into ‘expansion’.\nThisis unusual. ‘Expansion’ is meant to capture conditions that are 'better than normal, and improving',and since 1980, it has taken an average of 35 months to get there after 'downturn' ends. Its speedy arrival speaks to a speedy recovery powered by enormous policy support.It also hints at another possibility: this hotter cycle could be shorter.This is our thesis, and it’s showing up in our quantitative measure.\nAll this has a number of implications:\n\nThe shorter the cycle, the worse for credit relative to other risky assets; credit enjoys fewer of the gains from the 'boom', is exposed if the next downturn is early, and faces more supply as corporate confidence increases. In the ‘expansion’ phase of our cycle model, US IG and HY credit N12M excess returns are 29bp and 161bp worse than average, respectively.\nIn many of those periods, more mixed credit performance occurs despite default rates remaining low. Investors should try to take default risk over spread risk: our credit strategists like owning CDX HY 0-15%, and hedging with CDX IG payer spreads.\nIn equities, we think that our model supports more balance in portfolios. We like healthcare in both the US and Europe as a sector with several nice factor exposures: quality, low valuation, high carry and low volatility. Globally, equities in Europe and Japan have tended to outperform 'mid-cycle', and we think that they can do so again.\nInterest rates are too pessimistic on the recovery. US 10-year Treasury N12M returns are 97bp worse than average during the ‘expansion’ phase of our cycle model. Guneet Dhingra and our US interest rate strategy team have moved underweight US 10-year Treasuries, and we in turn have moved back underweight government bonds in our global asset allocation.\n\nThis cycle is unusual. Most 'normal' cycles are. We think that the recovery is sustainable and more likely to be ‘hotter and shorter’. 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Anybody same here? :(","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":14,"commentSize":7,"repostSize":1,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/140510249","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2385,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":172831953,"gmtCreate":1626949749672,"gmtModify":1631891322828,"author":{"id":"3577405401653046","authorId":"3577405401653046","name":"YJJJJ","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fb972e7197c5c97153beaf02f46a2cb1","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3577405401653046","authorIdStr":"3577405401653046"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Another drop?","listText":"Another drop?","text":"Another drop?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/172831953","repostId":"2153408396","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":509,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":146186232,"gmtCreate":1626059236626,"gmtModify":1631893622049,"author":{"id":"3577405401653046","authorId":"3577405401653046","name":"YJJJJ","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fb972e7197c5c97153beaf02f46a2cb1","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3577405401653046","authorIdStr":"3577405401653046"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Interesting&nbsp;","listText":"Interesting&nbsp;","text":"Interesting","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/146186232","repostId":"2150076873","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":130,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":144399377,"gmtCreate":1626266162999,"gmtModify":1631891322851,"author":{"id":"3577405401653046","authorId":"3577405401653046","name":"YJJJJ","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fb972e7197c5c97153beaf02f46a2cb1","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3577405401653046","authorIdStr":"3577405401653046"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMC\">$AMC Entertainment(AMC)$</a>Everyday i see amc price drop by $2-3, how long can the price drop","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMC\">$AMC Entertainment(AMC)$</a>Everyday i see amc price drop by $2-3, how long can the price drop","text":"$AMC Entertainment(AMC)$Everyday i see amc price drop by $2-3, how long can the price drop","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/144399377","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":794,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":143629267,"gmtCreate":1625792499059,"gmtModify":1631893622061,"author":{"id":"3577405401653046","authorId":"3577405401653046","name":"YJJJJ","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fb972e7197c5c97153beaf02f46a2cb1","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3577405401653046","authorIdStr":"3577405401653046"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMC\">$AMC Entertainment(AMC)$</a>Yay! Lucky did not sold and ita giving me a surprise always!&nbsp;","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMC\">$AMC Entertainment(AMC)$</a>Yay! Lucky did not sold and ita giving me a surprise always!&nbsp;","text":"$AMC Entertainment(AMC)$Yay! Lucky did not sold and ita giving me a surprise always!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/143629267","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":452,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":171926840,"gmtCreate":1626703223680,"gmtModify":1631891322837,"author":{"id":"3577405401653046","authorId":"3577405401653046","name":"YJJJJ","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fb972e7197c5c97153beaf02f46a2cb1","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3577405401653046","authorIdStr":"3577405401653046"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/.DJI\">$DJIA(.DJI)$</a>Correction?","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/.DJI\">$DJIA(.DJI)$</a>Correction?","text":"$DJIA(.DJI)$Correction?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/171926840","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1397,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":170137183,"gmtCreate":1626411109542,"gmtModify":1631891322845,"author":{"id":"3577405401653046","authorId":"3577405401653046","name":"YJJJJ","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fb972e7197c5c97153beaf02f46a2cb1","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3577405401653046","authorIdStr":"3577405401653046"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"China?","listText":"China?","text":"China?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/170137183","repostId":"1122179575","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":412,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":142152242,"gmtCreate":1626138046386,"gmtModify":1631891322849,"author":{"id":"3577405401653046","authorId":"3577405401653046","name":"YJJJJ","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fb972e7197c5c97153beaf02f46a2cb1","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3577405401653046","authorIdStr":"3577405401653046"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/02618\">$JD LOGISTICS(02618)$</a>:(","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/02618\">$JD LOGISTICS(02618)$</a>:(","text":"$JD LOGISTICS(02618)$:(","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bfcb2b0ca5814c791d545f76ca981672","width":"828","height":"1434"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/142152242","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":274,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":143626439,"gmtCreate":1625792646321,"gmtModify":1631893622058,"author":{"id":"3577405401653046","authorId":"3577405401653046","name":"YJJJJ","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fb972e7197c5c97153beaf02f46a2cb1","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3577405401653046","authorIdStr":"3577405401653046"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMC\">$AMC Entertainment(AMC)$</a>Stay! Woohoo","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMC\">$AMC Entertainment(AMC)$</a>Stay! Woohoo","text":"$AMC Entertainment(AMC)$Stay! Woohoo","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/143626439","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":212,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":171926575,"gmtCreate":1626703245897,"gmtModify":1631891322833,"author":{"id":"3577405401653046","authorId":"3577405401653046","name":"YJJJJ","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fb972e7197c5c97153beaf02f46a2cb1","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3577405401653046","authorIdStr":"3577405401653046"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Ohnooo","listText":"Ohnooo","text":"Ohnooo","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/171926575","repostId":"1143265655","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1143265655","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1626702580,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1143265655?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-07-19 21:49","market":"us","language":"en","title":"AMC fell nearly 9% in morning trading","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1143265655","media":"Motley Fool","summary":"(July 19) AMC fell nearly 9% in morning trading. Is There Any Hope Left for AMC Entertainment Stock?","content":"<html><body><p>(July 19) AMC fell nearly 9% in morning trading. Is There Any Hope Left for AMC Entertainment Stock?</p>\n<p><img referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c568be01ed9cf916d7a574a56c1e7402\" tg-height=\"460\" tg-width=\"642\"/></p>\n<blockquote>\n The company's short squeeze is rapidly losing momentum.\n</blockquote>\n<p><b>Key Points</b></p>\n<ul>\n<li>AMC may not have enough cash to fund research and development efforts to compete with movie-streaming services.</li>\n<li>The spread of more contagious variants of the coronavirus could thwart theater traffic and offset rising demand from movie backlogs.</li>\n</ul>\n<p></p>\n<p>The traders of Reddit's Wall Street Bets community shocked the investment world this year by bidding up<b>AMC Entertainment</b>(NYSE:AMC), sending shares higher by nearly 3,000% at one point. However, at Friday's prices, the stock was down more than 40% from its June highs.</p>\n<p>Many traders held a \"buy first, ask questions later\" mentality when opening up a stake. But now, the time for questions has come.Can AMC deliversustained growthover the long term?</p>\n<p><b>Upcoming catalysts</b></p>\n<p>The COVID-19 pandemic has created a massive backlog of unreleased films. Production delays have played a role, but studio executives have also postponed releases until theaters reopened to maximize revenue. Over the next year, a number of big franchises will have new installments, including<i>Jurassic Park</i>,<i>Batman</i>,<i>Transformers</i>,<i>John Wick</i>,<i>Avatar</i>,<i>Indiana Jones</i>,<i>Mission</i><i>Impossible</i>, and Marvel. Keep in mind that AMC is the largest theater chain in the country, with over 60% market share. So there's no doubt there would be an impressive boost to the company's bottom line when these movies hit the theaters (keep in mind that AMC's business wasn't consistently profitable before COVID, so even a blockbuster year may not be a sure thing).</p>\n<p>In addition, AMC may have been saved simply by the efforts of Reddit traders to boost the stock. Thanks to a high stock price, AMC raised $1.246 billion in cash via equity offerings in the second quarter alone. That increased its total liquidity to over $2 billion, against $5.5 billion of long-term debt.</p>\n<p>If AMC used the cash to pay back debt, then the return on investment would be immediate (we'll have to wait until second-quarter earnings on Aug. 5 to learn more). The average interest rate of AMC's debt exceeds 10%, and interest payments outweighed total revenue in the first quarter. Moreover, Adam Aron, the company's CEO, announced on July 6 that he would scrap a plan to issue 25 million additional shares. Aron does not anticipate any other stock offerings in 2021, which suggests the company believes its turnaround is on track. The company is acting as if it believes it has enough cash to execute its plans for now.</p>\n<p><b>Upcoming inhibitors</b></p>\n<p>A major risk ahead for AMC is the spread of the delta and lambda coronavirus variants in the country. Moviegoers may be inclined to stay at home and watch new releases on streaming services instead, especially when it comes to new releases available to both channels. As a result, don't expect the company's traffic to rebound to pre-pandemic levels anytime soon.</p>\n<p>In addition, it's not clear yet how the company could sustain its growth or earnings in the long term. After the movie backlog clears up, AMC would be competing with multiple movie-streaming services and home-entertainment enthusiasts for traffic. But it can't spare much cash for the sake of innovation; the company still needs to generate cash flow to pay off its ballooning debt stack. On top of that, it still owes $400 million in rent to theater landlords due to the lockdowns in the past year.</p>\n<p><b>The missing element</b></p>\n<p>The problem of achieving innovation is a big one in the long run, and AMC is stuck in a catch-22. There isn't anything stopping AMC from launching a paid subscription streaming service for new movies. However, that will inevitably cannibalize revenue from its theaters, leading to a net-zero outcome.</p>\n<p>Offering a subscription pass to its theaters wouldn't really work either. MoviePass had already attempted that. To match the value proposition of streaming services, the company had to price its pass at $10 per month, resulting in staggering losses before it went bankrupt.</p>\n<p>But the biggest killer of AMC's prospects going forward is probably a combination of 5G and synchronized viewing. For example, the social community platform Discord allows its users to stream movies via its screen-share feature. While the movie plays, users are free to talk with each other, eat their own food, and otherwise enjoy the experience in ways that might be taboo in an actual theatre.</p>\n<p>With the rise of 5G, folks can watch movies via screen sharing just about anywhere. Bored while swimming in the lake? Just boot up your phone and watch a movie stream with friends. The best part is that the activity is free; intellectual property laws haven't caught on to the innovation yet, resulting in a grey area. At the end of the day, it would be extremely difficult for AMC to compete with these \"mini-virtual theaters\" where patrons can watch from anywhere and do whatever they like while watching.</p>\n<p><b>The verdict</b></p>\n<p>Since its inception, AMC has lost a cumulative $5.9 billion, and that number is growing. Investors should note that aside from another near-term spike/short squeeze, there are not many fundamentals backing the company's long-term prospects. In addition, its inability to devote cash to innovation will almost guarantee more revenue and bottom-line woes in the long run. That's on top of its inability to compete with peer-to-peer synchronized movie-viewing experiences. At a forward-looking price-to-sales (P/S) ratio over 8, AMC stock looks incredibly expensive for a company that could yet fall off another cliff in terms of growth. Long-term investors looking forways to profit from the reopening economyshould stay away.</p>\n<p></p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" http-equiv=\"Content-Type\"/>\n<meta content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\" name=\"viewport\"/>\n<meta content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" name=\"format-detection\"/>\n<title>AMC fell nearly 9% in morning trading</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nAMC fell nearly 9% in morning trading\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-07-19 21:49 GMT+8   <a href=\"https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/07/17/is-there-any-hope-left-for-amc-entertainment-stock/?source=eptyholnk0000202&utm_source=yahoo-host&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=article\"><strong>Motley Fool</strong></a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>(July 19) AMC fell nearly 9% in morning trading. Is There Any Hope Left for AMC Entertainment Stock?\n\n\n The company's short squeeze is rapidly losing momentum.\n\nKey Points\n\nAMC may not have enough ...</p>\n<a href=\"https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/07/17/is-there-any-hope-left-for-amc-entertainment-stock/?source=eptyholnk0000202&utm_source=yahoo-host&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=article\">Web Link</a>\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AMC":"AMC院线"},"source_url":"https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/07/17/is-there-any-hope-left-for-amc-entertainment-stock/?source=eptyholnk0000202&utm_source=yahoo-host&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=article","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1143265655","content_text":"(July 19) AMC fell nearly 9% in morning trading. Is There Any Hope Left for AMC Entertainment Stock?\n\n\n The company's short squeeze is rapidly losing momentum.\n\nKey Points\n\nAMC may not have enough cash to fund research and development efforts to compete with movie-streaming services.\nThe spread of more contagious variants of the coronavirus could thwart theater traffic and offset rising demand from movie backlogs.\n\n\nThe traders of Reddit's Wall Street Bets community shocked the investment world this year by bidding upAMC Entertainment(NYSE:AMC), sending shares higher by nearly 3,000% at one point. However, at Friday's prices, the stock was down more than 40% from its June highs.\nMany traders held a \"buy first, ask questions later\" mentality when opening up a stake. But now, the time for questions has come.Can AMC deliversustained growthover the long term?\nUpcoming catalysts\nThe COVID-19 pandemic has created a massive backlog of unreleased films. Production delays have played a role, but studio executives have also postponed releases until theaters reopened to maximize revenue. Over the next year, a number of big franchises will have new installments, includingJurassic Park,Batman,Transformers,John Wick,Avatar,Indiana Jones,MissionImpossible, and Marvel. Keep in mind that AMC is the largest theater chain in the country, with over 60% market share. So there's no doubt there would be an impressive boost to the company's bottom line when these movies hit the theaters (keep in mind that AMC's business wasn't consistently profitable before COVID, so even a blockbuster year may not be a sure thing).\nIn addition, AMC may have been saved simply by the efforts of Reddit traders to boost the stock. Thanks to a high stock price, AMC raised $1.246 billion in cash via equity offerings in the second quarter alone. That increased its total liquidity to over $2 billion, against $5.5 billion of long-term debt.\nIf AMC used the cash to pay back debt, then the return on investment would be immediate (we'll have to wait until second-quarter earnings on Aug. 5 to learn more). The average interest rate of AMC's debt exceeds 10%, and interest payments outweighed total revenue in the first quarter. Moreover, Adam Aron, the company's CEO, announced on July 6 that he would scrap a plan to issue 25 million additional shares. Aron does not anticipate any other stock offerings in 2021, which suggests the company believes its turnaround is on track. The company is acting as if it believes it has enough cash to execute its plans for now.\nUpcoming inhibitors\nA major risk ahead for AMC is the spread of the delta and lambda coronavirus variants in the country. Moviegoers may be inclined to stay at home and watch new releases on streaming services instead, especially when it comes to new releases available to both channels. As a result, don't expect the company's traffic to rebound to pre-pandemic levels anytime soon.\nIn addition, it's not clear yet how the company could sustain its growth or earnings in the long term. After the movie backlog clears up, AMC would be competing with multiple movie-streaming services and home-entertainment enthusiasts for traffic. But it can't spare much cash for the sake of innovation; the company still needs to generate cash flow to pay off its ballooning debt stack. On top of that, it still owes $400 million in rent to theater landlords due to the lockdowns in the past year.\nThe missing element\nThe problem of achieving innovation is a big one in the long run, and AMC is stuck in a catch-22. There isn't anything stopping AMC from launching a paid subscription streaming service for new movies. However, that will inevitably cannibalize revenue from its theaters, leading to a net-zero outcome.\nOffering a subscription pass to its theaters wouldn't really work either. MoviePass had already attempted that. To match the value proposition of streaming services, the company had to price its pass at $10 per month, resulting in staggering losses before it went bankrupt.\nBut the biggest killer of AMC's prospects going forward is probably a combination of 5G and synchronized viewing. For example, the social community platform Discord allows its users to stream movies via its screen-share feature. While the movie plays, users are free to talk with each other, eat their own food, and otherwise enjoy the experience in ways that might be taboo in an actual theatre.\nWith the rise of 5G, folks can watch movies via screen sharing just about anywhere. Bored while swimming in the lake? Just boot up your phone and watch a movie stream with friends. The best part is that the activity is free; intellectual property laws haven't caught on to the innovation yet, resulting in a grey area. At the end of the day, it would be extremely difficult for AMC to compete with these \"mini-virtual theaters\" where patrons can watch from anywhere and do whatever they like while watching.\nThe verdict\nSince its inception, AMC has lost a cumulative $5.9 billion, and that number is growing. Investors should note that aside from another near-term spike/short squeeze, there are not many fundamentals backing the company's long-term prospects. In addition, its inability to devote cash to innovation will almost guarantee more revenue and bottom-line woes in the long run. That's on top of its inability to compete with peer-to-peer synchronized movie-viewing experiences. At a forward-looking price-to-sales (P/S) ratio over 8, AMC stock looks incredibly expensive for a company that could yet fall off another cliff in terms of growth. Long-term investors looking forways to profit from the reopening economyshould stay away.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":388,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":143623854,"gmtCreate":1625792536278,"gmtModify":1631893622058,"author":{"id":"3577405401653046","authorId":"3577405401653046","name":"YJJJJ","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fb972e7197c5c97153beaf02f46a2cb1","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3577405401653046","authorIdStr":"3577405401653046"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Buy at dip","listText":"Buy at dip","text":"Buy at dip","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/143623854","repostId":"1153646457","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":181,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":172923244,"gmtCreate":1626928654788,"gmtModify":1631891322828,"author":{"id":"3577405401653046","authorId":"3577405401653046","name":"YJJJJ","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fb972e7197c5c97153beaf02f46a2cb1","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3577405401653046","authorIdStr":"3577405401653046"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Xpeng seems to raise alot alot","listText":"Xpeng seems to raise alot alot","text":"Xpeng seems to raise alot alot","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/172923244","repostId":"2153123625","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":359,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":171928853,"gmtCreate":1626703193872,"gmtModify":1631891322839,"author":{"id":"3577405401653046","authorId":"3577405401653046","name":"YJJJJ","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fb972e7197c5c97153beaf02f46a2cb1","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3577405401653046","authorIdStr":"3577405401653046"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Why dipppp","listText":"Why dipppp","text":"Why dipppp","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/171928853","repostId":"1146536243","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1146536243","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1626683272,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1146536243?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-07-19 16:27","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Morgan Stanley: This Cycle Will Be \"Hotter But Shorter\" Than Usual","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1146536243","media":"zerohedge","summary":"This cycle is unusual. Most 'normal' cycles are. We think that the recovery is sustainable and more likely to be ‘hotter and shorter’. Sell Treasuries and trust the expansion.","content":"<html><body><p>We think that this economic cycle will be normal, strong and short. Each of these assumptions is being hotly debated by the market. Each is key to our investment strategy.</p>\n<p>The debate over cycle 'normalcy' is self-explanatory. The pandemic created, without exaggeration, the single sharpest decline in output in recorded history. Then activity raced back, helped by policy support. The case for viewing this situation as unique, and distinct from other cyclical experiences, is based on the view that a fall and rise this violent never allowed for a traditional 'reset'.</p>\n<p>But 'normal' in markets is a funny concept, with the rough edges of memory often smoothed and polished by the passage of time. The cycle of 2003-07 ended with the largest banking and housing crisis since the Great Depression. The cycle of 1992-2000 ended with the bursting of an enormous equity bubble, widespread accounting fraud and unspeakable tragedy. 'Normal' cycles are nice in theory, harder in practice.</p>\n<p>Instead, let’s consider why we use the term ‘cycle’ at all. Economies and markets tend to follow cyclical patterns, patterns that tend to show up in market performance. It is those patterns we care about, and if they still apply, they can provide a useful guide in uncertain terrain.</p>\n<p>Was last year’s recession preceded by late-cycle conditions such as an inverted yield curve, low volatility, low unemployment, high consumer confidence and narrowing equity market breadth? It was. Did the resulting troughs in equities, credit, yields and yield curves match the usual cadence between market and economic lows? They did. And were the leaders of the ensuing rally the usual early-cycle winners, like small and cyclical stocks, high yield credit and industrial metals? They were.</p>\n<p>If it walks like a duck and quacks like a duck, we think that it’s a normal cycle. Or as normal as these things realistically are. If a lot of 'normal' cycle behavior has played out so far, it should <i>continue</i> to do so.</p>\n<p>Specifically, this relates to patterns of performance as the market recovers. And as that recovery advances, those patterns should shift. As noted by my colleague Michael Wilson, we think that we are moving to a mid-cycle market, despite being just 16 months removed from the lows of economic activity. We see a number of similarities between current conditions and 1H04, a mid-cycle period that followed a large, reflationary rally. And importantly, despite recent fears about growth, we think that the global recovery will keep pushing on (see The Growth Scare Anniversary, July 11, 2021).</p>\n<p>Because one can always find an indicator that fits their particular cycle view, we’ve long been fans of a composite. That’s our ‘cycle model’, which combines ten US metrics across macro, the credit cycle and corporate aggression to gauge where we are in the market cycle. After moving into late-cycle ‘downturn’ in June 2019, and early-cycle ‘repair’ in April 2020, it’s rocketed higher.<b>It has risen so fast that it’s blown right past what should be the next phase ('recovery'), and moved right into ‘expansion’.</b></p>\n<p><img referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/41879c4f66b33597ee236bdd52841004\" tg-height=\"490\" tg-width=\"904\"/>Thisis unusual. ‘Expansion’ is meant to capture conditions that are 'better than normal, and improving',<b>and since 1980, it has taken an average of 35 months to get there after 'downturn' ends</b>. Its speedy arrival speaks to a speedy recovery powered by enormous policy support.<b>It also hints at another possibility: this hotter cycle could be shorter.</b>This is our thesis, and it’s showing up in our quantitative measure.</p>\n<p>All this has a number of implications:</p>\n<ul>\n<li><b>The shorter the cycle, the worse for credit relative to other risky assets; credit enjoys fewer of the gains from the 'boom', is exposed if the next downturn is early, and faces more supply as corporate confidence increases</b>. In the ‘expansion’ phase of our cycle model, US IG and HY credit N12M excess returns are 29bp and 161bp worse than average, respectively.</li>\n<li><b>In many of those periods, more mixed credit performance occurs despite default rates remaining low</b>. Investors should try to take default risk over spread risk: our credit strategists like owning CDX HY 0-15%, and hedging with CDX IG payer spreads.</li>\n<li><b>In equities, we think that our model supports more balance in portfolios</b>. We like healthcare in both the US and Europe as a sector with several nice factor exposures: quality, low valuation, high carry and low volatility. Globally, equities in Europe and Japan have tended to outperform 'mid-cycle', and we think that they can do so again.</li>\n<li><b>Interest rates are too pessimistic on the recovery. US 10-year Treasury N12M returns are 97bp worse than average during the ‘expansion’ phase of our cycle model</b>. Guneet Dhingra and our US interest rate strategy team have moved underweight US 10-year Treasuries, and we in turn have moved back underweight government bonds in our global asset allocation.</li>\n</ul>\n<p>This cycle is unusual. Most 'normal' cycles are. We think that the recovery is sustainable and more likely to be ‘hotter and shorter’. Sell Treasuries and trust the expansion.</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" http-equiv=\"Content-Type\"/>\n<meta content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\" name=\"viewport\"/>\n<meta content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" name=\"format-detection\"/>\n<title>Morgan Stanley: This Cycle Will Be \"Hotter But Shorter\" Than Usual</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nMorgan Stanley: This Cycle Will Be \"Hotter But Shorter\" Than Usual\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-07-19 16:27 GMT+8   <a href=\"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/morgan-stanley-cycle-will-be-hotter-shorter-usual\"><strong>zerohedge</strong></a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>We think that this economic cycle will be normal, strong and short. Each of these assumptions is being hotly debated by the market. Each is key to our investment strategy.\nThe debate over cycle '...</p>\n<a href=\"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/morgan-stanley-cycle-will-be-hotter-shorter-usual\">Web Link</a>\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"SPY":"标普500ETF",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/morgan-stanley-cycle-will-be-hotter-shorter-usual","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1146536243","content_text":"We think that this economic cycle will be normal, strong and short. Each of these assumptions is being hotly debated by the market. Each is key to our investment strategy.\nThe debate over cycle 'normalcy' is self-explanatory. The pandemic created, without exaggeration, the single sharpest decline in output in recorded history. Then activity raced back, helped by policy support. The case for viewing this situation as unique, and distinct from other cyclical experiences, is based on the view that a fall and rise this violent never allowed for a traditional 'reset'.\nBut 'normal' in markets is a funny concept, with the rough edges of memory often smoothed and polished by the passage of time. The cycle of 2003-07 ended with the largest banking and housing crisis since the Great Depression. The cycle of 1992-2000 ended with the bursting of an enormous equity bubble, widespread accounting fraud and unspeakable tragedy. 'Normal' cycles are nice in theory, harder in practice.\nInstead, let’s consider why we use the term ‘cycle’ at all. Economies and markets tend to follow cyclical patterns, patterns that tend to show up in market performance. It is those patterns we care about, and if they still apply, they can provide a useful guide in uncertain terrain.\nWas last year’s recession preceded by late-cycle conditions such as an inverted yield curve, low volatility, low unemployment, high consumer confidence and narrowing equity market breadth? It was. Did the resulting troughs in equities, credit, yields and yield curves match the usual cadence between market and economic lows? They did. And were the leaders of the ensuing rally the usual early-cycle winners, like small and cyclical stocks, high yield credit and industrial metals? They were.\nIf it walks like a duck and quacks like a duck, we think that it’s a normal cycle. Or as normal as these things realistically are. If a lot of 'normal' cycle behavior has played out so far, it should continue to do so.\nSpecifically, this relates to patterns of performance as the market recovers. And as that recovery advances, those patterns should shift. As noted by my colleague Michael Wilson, we think that we are moving to a mid-cycle market, despite being just 16 months removed from the lows of economic activity. We see a number of similarities between current conditions and 1H04, a mid-cycle period that followed a large, reflationary rally. And importantly, despite recent fears about growth, we think that the global recovery will keep pushing on (see The Growth Scare Anniversary, July 11, 2021).\nBecause one can always find an indicator that fits their particular cycle view, we’ve long been fans of a composite. That’s our ‘cycle model’, which combines ten US metrics across macro, the credit cycle and corporate aggression to gauge where we are in the market cycle. After moving into late-cycle ‘downturn’ in June 2019, and early-cycle ‘repair’ in April 2020, it’s rocketed higher.It has risen so fast that it’s blown right past what should be the next phase ('recovery'), and moved right into ‘expansion’.\nThisis unusual. ‘Expansion’ is meant to capture conditions that are 'better than normal, and improving',and since 1980, it has taken an average of 35 months to get there after 'downturn' ends. Its speedy arrival speaks to a speedy recovery powered by enormous policy support.It also hints at another possibility: this hotter cycle could be shorter.This is our thesis, and it’s showing up in our quantitative measure.\nAll this has a number of implications:\n\nThe shorter the cycle, the worse for credit relative to other risky assets; credit enjoys fewer of the gains from the 'boom', is exposed if the next downturn is early, and faces more supply as corporate confidence increases. In the ‘expansion’ phase of our cycle model, US IG and HY credit N12M excess returns are 29bp and 161bp worse than average, respectively.\nIn many of those periods, more mixed credit performance occurs despite default rates remaining low. Investors should try to take default risk over spread risk: our credit strategists like owning CDX HY 0-15%, and hedging with CDX IG payer spreads.\nIn equities, we think that our model supports more balance in portfolios. We like healthcare in both the US and Europe as a sector with several nice factor exposures: quality, low valuation, high carry and low volatility. Globally, equities in Europe and Japan have tended to outperform 'mid-cycle', and we think that they can do so again.\nInterest rates are too pessimistic on the recovery. US 10-year Treasury N12M returns are 97bp worse than average during the ‘expansion’ phase of our cycle model. Guneet Dhingra and our US interest rate strategy team have moved underweight US 10-year Treasuries, and we in turn have moved back underweight government bonds in our global asset allocation.\n\nThis cycle is unusual. Most 'normal' cycles are. We think that the recovery is sustainable and more likely to be ‘hotter and shorter’. Sell Treasuries and trust the expansion.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":343,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":145227927,"gmtCreate":1626226676569,"gmtModify":1631888969098,"author":{"id":"3577405401653046","authorId":"3577405401653046","name":"YJJJJ","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fb972e7197c5c97153beaf02f46a2cb1","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3577405401653046","authorIdStr":"3577405401653046"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/C38U.SI\">$CapLand IntCom T(C38U.SI)$</a>Why drop","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/C38U.SI\">$CapLand IntCom T(C38U.SI)$</a>Why drop","text":"$CapLand IntCom T(C38U.SI)$Why 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href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/02618\">$JD LOGISTICS(02618)$</a>Why ah","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/02618\">$JD LOGISTICS(02618)$</a>Why ah","text":"$JD LOGISTICS(02618)$Why ah","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fdf1552f40f5afecbf4aca3e003351f1","width":"828","height":"1434"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/149358570","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":208,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":171556446,"gmtCreate":1626752119085,"gmtModify":1631888969079,"author":{"id":"3577405401653046","authorId":"3577405401653046","name":"YJJJJ","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fb972e7197c5c97153beaf02f46a2cb1","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3577405401653046","authorIdStr":"3577405401653046"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/C38U.SI\">$CapLand IntCom T(C38U.SI)$</a>drop cos of covidcase baa","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/C38U.SI\">$CapLand IntCom T(C38U.SI)$</a>drop cos of covidcase baa","text":"$CapLand IntCom T(C38U.SI)$drop cos of covidcase baa","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a4938b1238dcc38096fd578ca3e92227","width":"828","height":"1434"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/171556446","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":489,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":171921825,"gmtCreate":1626703171467,"gmtModify":1631888969085,"author":{"id":"3577405401653046","authorId":"3577405401653046","name":"YJJJJ","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fb972e7197c5c97153beaf02f46a2cb1","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3577405401653046","authorIdStr":"3577405401653046"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/C38U.SI\">$CapLand IntCom T(C38U.SI)$</a>why","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/C38U.SI\">$CapLand IntCom T(C38U.SI)$</a>why","text":"$CapLand IntCom T(C38U.SI)$why","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a4938b1238dcc38096fd578ca3e92227","width":"828","height":"1434"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/171921825","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":501,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":172920552,"gmtCreate":1626928487376,"gmtModify":1631888414897,"author":{"id":"3577405401653046","authorId":"3577405401653046","name":"YJJJJ","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fb972e7197c5c97153beaf02f46a2cb1","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3577405401653046","authorIdStr":"3577405401653046"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a 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