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2022-11-16

$NQ100指数主连 2212(NQmain)$ 波兰炸弹爆炸事件引发金融市场震荡

2022-09-09

$NQ100指数主连 2209(NQmain)$做空的傻狗

2022-08-13

$NQ100指数主连 2209(NQmain)$空头们你们还好吗哈哈哈

2022-08-11

15000

@资本投资营:$NQ100指数主连 2209(NQmain)$太强了，13500全仓杀入，坐等14000收米[财迷] [财迷] [财迷]

2021-05-01

说说你对新闻的看法

抱歉，原内容已删除

2021-03-12

$NQ100指数主连(NQmain)$ 拉起来拉起来老美又在搞诱空

2021-03-12

垃圾想骗我买大a的垃圾票做梦吧

美股牛市摇摇欲坠，是即将终结还是暂时回调？

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href=\"https://laohu8.com/FUT/NQmain\">$NQ100指数主连(NQmain)$ &nbsp;</a>拉起来拉起来&nbsp; 老美又在搞诱空","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/FUT/NQmain\">$NQ100指数主连(NQmain)$ &nbsp;</a>拉起来拉起来&nbsp; 老美又在搞诱空","text":"$NQ100指数主连(NQmain)$ 拉起来拉起来 老美又在搞诱空","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/328453645","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1506,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":328968852,"gmtCreate":1615479963576,"gmtModify":1703489810493,"author":{"id":"3577377479597027","authorId":"3577377479597027","name":"美吹1","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3577377479597027","authorIdStr":"3577377479597027"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"垃圾&nbsp; &nbsp;想骗我买大a的垃圾票&nbsp; 做梦吧","listText":"垃圾&nbsp; &nbsp;想骗我买大a的垃圾票&nbsp; 做梦吧","text":"垃圾 想骗我买大a的垃圾票 做梦吧","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/328968852","repostId":"1156665265","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1156665265","pubTimestamp":1615430184,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1156665265?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-03-11 10:36","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"美股牛市摇摇欲坠，是即将终结还是暂时回调？","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1156665265","media":"金十数据","summary":"美股牛市是即将终结还是暂时回调？投资者最应该关心的是另一个风险……\n\n近期美股的下跌让人怀疑“美股牛市”已经摇摇欲坠。持续11年之久的美股牛市究竟是要迎来终结，还是仅仅只是短暂回调？\n针对上述争议，R","content":"<blockquote>\n 美股牛市是即将终结还是暂时回调？投资者最应该关心的是另一个风险……\n</blockquote>\n<p>近期美股的下跌让人怀疑“美股牛市”已经摇摇欲坠。持续11年之久的美股牛市究竟是要迎来终结，还是仅仅只是短暂回调？</p>\n<p>针对上述争议，Real Investment Advice的分析师兰斯·罗伯茨（Lance Roberts）对美股市场进行了分析，他的分析基于一个重要的前提：</p>\n<blockquote>\n “\n <b>牛市产生于悲观，增长于怀疑，终结于兴奋。</b>”\n</blockquote>\n<p>他表示，尽管美股牛市是否结束存在争议，但几乎没有争议的一点是，<b>美股投资者现在非常“兴奋”</b>。从散户交易者过度买入看涨期权，到追逐市场上做空最多的股票，美股投资者的状态甚至可以用“狂热来形容”。</p>\n<p>从资产配置也可看出美股投资者当前的状态。如下图所示，<b>基金经理的现金配置比例降至3.8%，为2013年3月以来的最低水平。</b></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/83f501936dbaf6702ac10585077c92bd\" tg-width=\"1568\" tg-height=\"952\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p><b>对股票和大宗商品的配置达到2011年2月以来的最高水平。</b></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/21196b78956709db1adc2c5a9ba94887\" tg-width=\"1580\" tg-height=\"986\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p><b>许多投资者都在承担着高于正常水平的风险。</b></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/538309995d29c840e30cd2e16fa8247c\" tg-width=\"1578\" tg-height=\"894\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>Roberts表示，他们从上周开始看到，大部分投资者从动量交易轮换至追求价值股。他认为这种轮换很可能类似于“刚跳出煎锅又跳进了火里”。</p>\n<p>数据显示，目前的小盘股价值比过去20年的任何时候都要高。由于这类股票与长期均值极度偏离，并且被严重高估，最终的价值回归将是残酷的。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/53cb3163920df8a2acc195289b5f6e0b\" tg-width=\"976\" tg-height=\"1007\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>同样的情况也出现在罗素2000指数的周线图上，该指数也增加了中型股敞口。由于这些股票的估值甚至远高于最乐观的经济前景，因此出现下跌的风险很高。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/91974022e7979e069138634d5e80aa84\" tg-width=\"986\" tg-height=\"1010\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>经济重新开放和板块轮换的典型代表是能源股。就像小盘价值和罗素2000指数一样，能源股也极度超买，并偏离了长期均值。</p>\n<p>从历史经验来看，<b>当出现价值回归时，情况都非常惨烈，这一次不太可能有所不同。</b></p>\n<p>中期指标也释放出令人担心的信号。例如资金流动，<b>尽管过去几个月市场“表面上”很活跃，但资金流动继续走弱。</b></p>\n<p>去年11月初，随着“买入信号”的触发，Roberts建议增加投资组合中的股票敞口。然而，从2月份开始，这一信号发生了逆转，导致价格持续下行。</p>\n<p>虽然市场确实可能在短期内反弹，但<b>“资金流动”的下降，以及“卖出信号”的出现，确实增加了Roberts对市场在未来一个月左右出现更大跌幅的担忧。</b></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cf0470a64fbafd8740d18897f847e8ad\" tg-width=\"1085\" tg-height=\"823\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>他的买入信号存在一个问题，它并不能预测下跌的幅度。例如，<b>2020年9月和10月出现“卖出信号”后，美股出现两次10%的下跌。而去年3月份的信号则导致美股在3周内暴跌35%。</b></p>\n<p>他表示<b>，鉴于MACD也出现卖出信号，肯定存在更大幅度下跌的风险。</b>但他怀疑，短期内的下跌仍将遇到买家接盘，因为看涨的势头依然存在。然而，如果有什么突发事情“惊动”了市场，仍有可能出现进一步的下跌，因此风险管理仍是关键。</p>\n<p>那么，几周前开始的调整是否已经结束了呢？目前看涨和看跌双方都有充足的理由坚持自己的观点。看涨者认为，另一项刺激法案的通过将给市场和经济带来短期的提振。而看跌者认为，从极度繁荣到估值过高，一切都构成了长期威胁。</p>\n<p>不过，<b>“多头”仍控制着市场。</b>目前，长期的牛市趋势仍未改变。下图是标普500指数的月线图，<b>始于2009年的牛市趋势仍未改变。如果要回落到这一趋势线下方，美股还有近30%的跌幅。</b></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7675552674833f05d1ba5d032901e646\" tg-width=\"900\" tg-height=\"673\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>然而，真正的问题是，考虑到相对于长期均值的极端偏离，市场在当前水平上是否仍具有可持续性？</p>\n<p>对于那些喜欢类比的人来说，<b>历史上最具可比性的时期是1998-1999年的市场“融涨”。在那期间，市场从支撑位反弹，然后开始了60%的“融涨”，最终在2000年见顶。</b>目前，标普500指数从去年3月份的低点也上涨了近60%。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8b351e9bc136d0f15688ab99d4760cea\" tg-width=\"900\" tg-height=\"673\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>Roberts并没有给出一个明确的答案，而是<b>建议投资者继续持有略高于正常水平的现金，并继续做好基本的风险管理控制。</b>因此，在接下来的几周内，他认为投资者需要做好以下三点：</p>\n<blockquote>\n 1、卖出那些根本不起作用的头寸。对于那些既没有在市场上涨时跟着上涨，有没有在市场下跌时提供支撑的头寸，要尽早承认错误，平掉这些头寸，也就是截断亏损。\n</blockquote>\n<blockquote>\n 2、将有利头寸调整至合适的权重，简单来说就是让利润奔跑。\n</blockquote>\n<blockquote>\n 3、保留现金，以便将来有机会以更好的价位进场。\n</blockquote>\n<p>当市场上涨时，“看跌”的担忧往往会被忽视，但这并不意味着它们是无效的。不幸的是，等到“羊群”意识到整体情绪的转变时，往往都已经太晚了。</p>\n<p>他表示，去预测未来的市场走势毫无意义，不管牛市结束与否，投资者应该关注的是市场的变化。而目前投资者面临的最大风险就是“<b>故意对市场变化视而不见</b>”，等开始重视时却为时已晚。要知道，在1999年和2007年，也没有人认为“牛市已死”。</p>","source":"jssj","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>美股牛市摇摇欲坠，是即将终结还是暂时回调？</title>\n<style 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}\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n美股牛市摇摇欲坠，是即将终结还是暂时回调？\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-03-11 10:36 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://xnews.jin10.com/details/71570><strong>金十数据</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>美股牛市是即将终结还是暂时回调？投资者最应该关心的是另一个风险……\n\n近期美股的下跌让人怀疑“美股牛市”已经摇摇欲坠。持续11年之久的美股牛市究竟是要迎来终结，还是仅仅只是短暂回调？\n针对上述争议，Real Investment Advice的分析师兰斯·罗伯茨（Lance Roberts）对美股市场进行了分析，他的分析基于一个重要的前提：\n\n “\n 牛市产生于悲观，增长于怀疑，终结于兴奋。”\n\n...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://xnews.jin10.com/details/71570\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/144fcf63ccaceb7d59c371695c704fb3","relate_stocks":{".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"source_url":"https://xnews.jin10.com/details/71570","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1156665265","content_text":"美股牛市是即将终结还是暂时回调？投资者最应该关心的是另一个风险……\n\n近期美股的下跌让人怀疑“美股牛市”已经摇摇欲坠。持续11年之久的美股牛市究竟是要迎来终结，还是仅仅只是短暂回调？\n针对上述争议，Real Investment Advice的分析师兰斯·罗伯茨（Lance Roberts）对美股市场进行了分析，他的分析基于一个重要的前提：\n\n “\n 牛市产生于悲观，增长于怀疑，终结于兴奋。”\n\n他表示，尽管美股牛市是否结束存在争议，但几乎没有争议的一点是，美股投资者现在非常“兴奋”。从散户交易者过度买入看涨期权，到追逐市场上做空最多的股票，美股投资者的状态甚至可以用“狂热来形容”。\n从资产配置也可看出美股投资者当前的状态。如下图所示，基金经理的现金配置比例降至3.8%，为2013年3月以来的最低水平。\n\n对股票和大宗商品的配置达到2011年2月以来的最高水平。\n\n许多投资者都在承担着高于正常水平的风险。\n\nRoberts表示，他们从上周开始看到，大部分投资者从动量交易轮换至追求价值股。他认为这种轮换很可能类似于“刚跳出煎锅又跳进了火里”。\n数据显示，目前的小盘股价值比过去20年的任何时候都要高。由于这类股票与长期均值极度偏离，并且被严重高估，最终的价值回归将是残酷的。\n\n同样的情况也出现在罗素2000指数的周线图上，该指数也增加了中型股敞口。由于这些股票的估值甚至远高于最乐观的经济前景，因此出现下跌的风险很高。\n\n经济重新开放和板块轮换的典型代表是能源股。就像小盘价值和罗素2000指数一样，能源股也极度超买，并偏离了长期均值。\n从历史经验来看，当出现价值回归时，情况都非常惨烈，这一次不太可能有所不同。\n中期指标也释放出令人担心的信号。例如资金流动，尽管过去几个月市场“表面上”很活跃，但资金流动继续走弱。\n去年11月初，随着“买入信号”的触发，Roberts建议增加投资组合中的股票敞口。然而，从2月份开始，这一信号发生了逆转，导致价格持续下行。\n虽然市场确实可能在短期内反弹，但“资金流动”的下降，以及“卖出信号”的出现，确实增加了Roberts对市场在未来一个月左右出现更大跌幅的担忧。\n\n他的买入信号存在一个问题，它并不能预测下跌的幅度。例如，2020年9月和10月出现“卖出信号”后，美股出现两次10%的下跌。而去年3月份的信号则导致美股在3周内暴跌35%。\n他表示，鉴于MACD也出现卖出信号，肯定存在更大幅度下跌的风险。但他怀疑，短期内的下跌仍将遇到买家接盘，因为看涨的势头依然存在。然而，如果有什么突发事情“惊动”了市场，仍有可能出现进一步的下跌，因此风险管理仍是关键。\n那么，几周前开始的调整是否已经结束了呢？目前看涨和看跌双方都有充足的理由坚持自己的观点。看涨者认为，另一项刺激法案的通过将给市场和经济带来短期的提振。而看跌者认为，从极度繁荣到估值过高，一切都构成了长期威胁。\n不过，“多头”仍控制着市场。目前，长期的牛市趋势仍未改变。下图是标普500指数的月线图，始于2009年的牛市趋势仍未改变。如果要回落到这一趋势线下方，美股还有近30%的跌幅。\n\n然而，真正的问题是，考虑到相对于长期均值的极端偏离，市场在当前水平上是否仍具有可持续性？\n对于那些喜欢类比的人来说，历史上最具可比性的时期是1998-1999年的市场“融涨”。在那期间，市场从支撑位反弹，然后开始了60%的“融涨”，最终在2000年见顶。目前，标普500指数从去年3月份的低点也上涨了近60%。\n\nRoberts并没有给出一个明确的答案，而是建议投资者继续持有略高于正常水平的现金，并继续做好基本的风险管理控制。因此，在接下来的几周内，他认为投资者需要做好以下三点：\n\n 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