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小雨哈哈嘿
2021-07-02
[微笑]
灵魂与肉体：2021年整车厂的傲慢与偏见？
小雨哈哈嘿
2021-07-01
[微笑]
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小雨哈哈嘿
2021-06-20
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小雨哈哈嘿
2021-06-19
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超2万亿美股期权决战今晚“四巫日”
小雨哈哈嘿
2021-06-18
[开心]
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小雨哈哈嘿
2021-06-17
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小雨哈哈嘿
2021-04-27
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小雨哈哈嘿
2021-04-27
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","listText":"[微笑] ","text":"[微笑]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/156774509","repostId":"2148778158","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2148778158","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1625233502,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2148778158?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-07-02 21:45","market":"sh","language":"zh","title":"灵魂与肉体：2021年整车厂的傲慢与偏见？","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2148778158","media":"格隆汇","summary":"发展大势所趋。","content":"<p>6月底，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600104\">上汽集团</a>股东大会上，有股民问：目前众多车企注重自动驾驶业务的推进，从之前的媒体曝光来看，华为自动驾驶算法技术，以及激光雷达产业布局方面，都具有较大的先发优势，上汽是否会考虑在自动驾驶方面与华为等第三方公司合作。</p>\n<p>董事长陈虹回应：与华为这样的第三方公司合作自动驾驶，上汽是不能接受的。就成了灵魂，而上汽就成了躯体。对于这样的结果，上汽是不能接受的，要把灵魂掌握在自己手中。</p>\n<blockquote>\n <i>“不接受任何供应商的整体解决方案，最多是合作。”</i>\n</blockquote>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4bf1a94e28b746f0f8c983b57f24dedb\" tg-width=\"362\" tg-height=\"240\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p><b>上汽有没有这样说话的底气？</b></p>\n<p>先来看看上汽的布局，2021年上汽集团全面转型电动化、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/5RE.SI\">智能</a>化，进入电动汽车和智能汽车的新品密集投放大年：上汽大众 MEB 平台 2021 年推出 3 款ID系列产品，上汽自主旗下新品牌R和智己先后各推出2 款电动产品，并于年底投产新一代电池平台，2022 年智己首款车型交付并上市第二款车型，基于 MEB 平台打造的奥迪电动新车型上市，荣威和名爵主力车型全面换代，2022 年下半年上汽通用电动车新平台开始密集投放新车型。</p>\n<p>同时，上汽通用五菱借力现象级爆款宏光MINIEV持续深耕短途代步的电动小车市场。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/37a781a927e5d6e1c0a801dddb94aa79\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"496\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>表面上看起来有很多中长期的战略布局，但如果去查一下销量，会觉得名不副实。</p>\n<p>根据车主之家5月的销量数据，除了五菱宏光Mini 和荣威排在一三名之外，其余的车型枝只有一千上下的销量。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/71169c0cbee9f0c09c95833730fc6655\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"496\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>按五菱和荣威的排名一一分析，简单算笔账。</p>\n<p>五菱宏光Mini大家都熟悉，价格在三万左右的A00纯电动车，续航120KM，方便日常通勤以及城际之间的交通，俗称“买菜车”，很贴近当代人的生活，但是这个价位就别奢望能有自动驾驶服务了。简单算下收入，均价三万左右的五菱宏光Mini即使是销量26742辆，算起来收入8个亿左右；就以<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO\">蔚来</a>举例子，5月销量6711辆，均价按30万算，收入在20亿左右。销冠五菱的收入不到蔚来的一半，可见车企中高端车型布局是多么重要。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8f6cce8f67816dee75105656b707a5e9\" tg-width=\"522\" tg-height=\"251\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>图表来源：公司官网</p>\n<p>上汽没有高端车布局吗，有的。</p>\n<p>去年年底联合阿里和<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600895\">张江高科</a>成立智己汽车定位高端，短暂地吸引了一下市场的眼球。首款智己L7的预售车型，预售价格为40.88万元。智己L7车长5098mm，轴距 3100mm与BBA相近。综合工况续航 655km，零百加速3.9秒。除了已发布开始预定的智己 L7，还有智己的首款SUV智己LS7预计在2022年也将上市。L74月发布便开始预订，到现在也没有销量的数据，配置再怎么夸最后还是要看市场买不买账。</p>\n<p>扯远了，再来看看荣威的销量。对比乘联会5月的数据，有些数据网站会把荣威i5和荣威Ei5的销量放在了一起，显得荣威似乎销量很好。然而荣威i5是燃油车，价格在5.99-8.19万元，5月销量为12671辆。荣威Ei5是纯电动车，价格在12.48-15.91万元，综合续航里程5.01KM。5月销量只有1644辆。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/375da797e19bbad1f705429d003303dd\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"496\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>其他的车型就更别说了，大众ID4、Marvel R等车型都只有几百辆的销量。</p>\n<p><b>如果销量还有市场的选择以及竞争者们等多种外生因素影响，上汽对电动化智能化大趋势有没有内生性的坚定的态度呢？</b></p>\n<p>关于公司扩张以及研发费用，上汽表示公司下一阶段的重要目标是国际化。</p>\n<p>公司产品和服务已进入全球 60 余个国家和地区，已培育形成了9个“万辆级”海外区域市场。上汽集团积极推动全球业务布局。在硅谷、特拉维夫和伦敦设立 3 个创新研发中心，在欧洲、南美、中东、北非、澳新和东盟等地设立了多个区域营销服务中心，已经形成泰国、英国、欧盟、印尼、智利、澳新、中东、印度、埃及 9 个“规模级”海外市场。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/465e475b945c4a48998d2cb298e03be9\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"759\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>私以为国内的市场都还没有顾上，这时候发展全球化显得有些操之过急以及画饼之嫌。造车，特别是造智能电动车是多么烧钱的一件事，隔壁蔚小理三家已经演绎地一清二楚，更何况初期都还是找代工厂代工生产不是自己整车制造，蔚来都一度濒临破产。</p>\n<p>那么来看看上汽最近几年的研发费用。上汽集团2018-2020年的研发费用分别为153.85、133.93以及133.95亿元，其中研发费用占营业成本比率分别为2%、1.84%以及2.08%。2020年可以算是新能源汽车的爆发元年了，上汽的研发费用同比只增加了0.01%。2021年上汽Q1研发费用为34.18亿元，研发费用占营业成本比率为2.08%。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1ea6ba421cc1596edae7c4dc59d352bf\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"759\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>研发费用上19年到20年几乎没什么区别，今年Q1的研发费用跟2020Q1也没有太大的浮动，只增加4亿。造车是个很烧钱的事情，如果真的想自己造车，上汽集团应该拿出砸钱的态度。</p>\n<p>形成鲜明对比的是隔壁早早想清楚和华为合作的<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/601127\">小康股份</a>，单从股价上近半年小康已经翻了三倍。</p>\n<p>小康当初是做微型车和商用车起家的，自己研发了一款增程式汽车赛力斯SF5销量惨淡，说起来最初管理层的策略准备先发展美国市场再回国内发展，由于实在缺钱，后来这个战略便不了了之了。</p>\n<p>直到开始和华为合作，合力生产新的赛力斯，股价开始迅速往上走，虽然不排除有资本炒作的嫌疑，但是小康后续会有纯电动车型出现，并且华为的销售渠道为小康全部打开。传统整车厂和互联网起家的新势力最大的不同就在于不注重营销。加上此次定增，由于华为的加成，小康受到了多方资金的青睐，包括广发以及重庆市政府的高度重视。有了资金又有了华为的技术和渠道，小康的新能源汽车之路会走地更顺一些。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/59f9dcfe29a8267bcff7d62b3bd894b7\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"759\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p><b>说在最后</b></p>\n<p>当年燃油汽车替代马车，是平价替代。之前马车只有贵族才能坐，燃油车的出现替代了马车，消费升级带动的市场是非常大的，相当于从0到100。传统整车厂踩在时代和技术变更的肩膀上赚得盆满钵满。</p>\n<p>不否认像上汽这样的传统车企家大业大，要跟新入局就能扼住行业喉咙的华为低头，这口气或许真的咽不下去。转头想想，其实华为也已经布局多年了，并不是脑子一热就冲进了智能化的市场。<b>资本市场都是逐利的，燃油车的时代终将会过去，全球都在快速发展碳中和，新能源汽车电动化、智能化的发展大势所趋。</b></p>\n<p>中<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600617\">国新能源</a>汽车市场已经从政策引导型转为市场选择型，这时候还没有调转过头的传统车企应该放下多年的傲慢与偏见，快速转变风格，放低姿态，互利共赢。如果没有能力自己研发自动驾驶系统，传统车企的优势在于整车，吃掉代工的市场或许也是一件好生意。</p>","source":"gelonghui_highlight","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>灵魂与肉体：2021年整车厂的傲慢与偏见？</title>\n<style 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margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n灵魂与肉体：2021年整车厂的傲慢与偏见？\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-07-02 21:45 北京时间 <a href=http://www.gelonghui.com/p/473156><strong>格隆汇</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>6月底，上汽集团股东大会上，有股民问：目前众多车企注重自动驾驶业务的推进，从之前的媒体曝光来看，华为自动驾驶算法技术，以及激光雷达产业布局方面，都具有较大的先发优势，上汽是否会考虑在自动驾驶方面与华为等第三方公司合作。\n董事长陈虹回应：与华为这样的第三方公司合作自动驾驶，上汽是不能接受的。就成了灵魂，而上汽就成了躯体。对于这样的结果，上汽是不能接受的，要把灵魂掌握在自己手中。\n\n“不接受任何供应商...</p>\n\n<a href=\"http://www.gelonghui.com/p/473156\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b27e15814525cfc370ed22cca0bff732","relate_stocks":{"600104":"上汽集团"},"source_url":"http://www.gelonghui.com/p/473156","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/6b8fa6424aebe95f6781d04ef17a1852","article_id":"2148778158","content_text":"6月底，上汽集团股东大会上，有股民问：目前众多车企注重自动驾驶业务的推进，从之前的媒体曝光来看，华为自动驾驶算法技术，以及激光雷达产业布局方面，都具有较大的先发优势，上汽是否会考虑在自动驾驶方面与华为等第三方公司合作。\n董事长陈虹回应：与华为这样的第三方公司合作自动驾驶，上汽是不能接受的。就成了灵魂，而上汽就成了躯体。对于这样的结果，上汽是不能接受的，要把灵魂掌握在自己手中。\n\n“不接受任何供应商的整体解决方案，最多是合作。”\n\n\n上汽有没有这样说话的底气？\n先来看看上汽的布局，2021年上汽集团全面转型电动化、智能化，进入电动汽车和智能汽车的新品密集投放大年：上汽大众 MEB 平台 2021 年推出 3 款ID系列产品，上汽自主旗下新品牌R和智己先后各推出2 款电动产品，并于年底投产新一代电池平台，2022 年智己首款车型交付并上市第二款车型，基于 MEB 平台打造的奥迪电动新车型上市，荣威和名爵主力车型全面换代，2022 年下半年上汽通用电动车新平台开始密集投放新车型。\n同时，上汽通用五菱借力现象级爆款宏光MINIEV持续深耕短途代步的电动小车市场。\n\n表面上看起来有很多中长期的战略布局，但如果去查一下销量，会觉得名不副实。\n根据车主之家5月的销量数据，除了五菱宏光Mini 和荣威排在一三名之外，其余的车型枝只有一千上下的销量。\n\n按五菱和荣威的排名一一分析，简单算笔账。\n五菱宏光Mini大家都熟悉，价格在三万左右的A00纯电动车，续航120KM，方便日常通勤以及城际之间的交通，俗称“买菜车”，很贴近当代人的生活，但是这个价位就别奢望能有自动驾驶服务了。简单算下收入，均价三万左右的五菱宏光Mini即使是销量26742辆，算起来收入8个亿左右；就以蔚来举例子，5月销量6711辆，均价按30万算，收入在20亿左右。销冠五菱的收入不到蔚来的一半，可见车企中高端车型布局是多么重要。\n\n图表来源：公司官网\n上汽没有高端车布局吗，有的。\n去年年底联合阿里和张江高科成立智己汽车定位高端，短暂地吸引了一下市场的眼球。首款智己L7的预售车型，预售价格为40.88万元。智己L7车长5098mm，轴距 3100mm与BBA相近。综合工况续航 655km，零百加速3.9秒。除了已发布开始预定的智己 L7，还有智己的首款SUV智己LS7预计在2022年也将上市。L74月发布便开始预订，到现在也没有销量的数据，配置再怎么夸最后还是要看市场买不买账。\n扯远了，再来看看荣威的销量。对比乘联会5月的数据，有些数据网站会把荣威i5和荣威Ei5的销量放在了一起，显得荣威似乎销量很好。然而荣威i5是燃油车，价格在5.99-8.19万元，5月销量为12671辆。荣威Ei5是纯电动车，价格在12.48-15.91万元，综合续航里程5.01KM。5月销量只有1644辆。\n\n其他的车型就更别说了，大众ID4、Marvel R等车型都只有几百辆的销量。\n如果销量还有市场的选择以及竞争者们等多种外生因素影响，上汽对电动化智能化大趋势有没有内生性的坚定的态度呢？\n关于公司扩张以及研发费用，上汽表示公司下一阶段的重要目标是国际化。\n公司产品和服务已进入全球 60 余个国家和地区，已培育形成了9个“万辆级”海外区域市场。上汽集团积极推动全球业务布局。在硅谷、特拉维夫和伦敦设立 3 个创新研发中心，在欧洲、南美、中东、北非、澳新和东盟等地设立了多个区域营销服务中心，已经形成泰国、英国、欧盟、印尼、智利、澳新、中东、印度、埃及 9 个“规模级”海外市场。\n\n私以为国内的市场都还没有顾上，这时候发展全球化显得有些操之过急以及画饼之嫌。造车，特别是造智能电动车是多么烧钱的一件事，隔壁蔚小理三家已经演绎地一清二楚，更何况初期都还是找代工厂代工生产不是自己整车制造，蔚来都一度濒临破产。\n那么来看看上汽最近几年的研发费用。上汽集团2018-2020年的研发费用分别为153.85、133.93以及133.95亿元，其中研发费用占营业成本比率分别为2%、1.84%以及2.08%。2020年可以算是新能源汽车的爆发元年了，上汽的研发费用同比只增加了0.01%。2021年上汽Q1研发费用为34.18亿元，研发费用占营业成本比率为2.08%。\n\n研发费用上19年到20年几乎没什么区别，今年Q1的研发费用跟2020Q1也没有太大的浮动，只增加4亿。造车是个很烧钱的事情，如果真的想自己造车，上汽集团应该拿出砸钱的态度。\n形成鲜明对比的是隔壁早早想清楚和华为合作的小康股份，单从股价上近半年小康已经翻了三倍。\n小康当初是做微型车和商用车起家的，自己研发了一款增程式汽车赛力斯SF5销量惨淡，说起来最初管理层的策略准备先发展美国市场再回国内发展，由于实在缺钱，后来这个战略便不了了之了。\n直到开始和华为合作，合力生产新的赛力斯，股价开始迅速往上走，虽然不排除有资本炒作的嫌疑，但是小康后续会有纯电动车型出现，并且华为的销售渠道为小康全部打开。传统整车厂和互联网起家的新势力最大的不同就在于不注重营销。加上此次定增，由于华为的加成，小康受到了多方资金的青睐，包括广发以及重庆市政府的高度重视。有了资金又有了华为的技术和渠道，小康的新能源汽车之路会走地更顺一些。\n\n说在最后\n当年燃油汽车替代马车，是平价替代。之前马车只有贵族才能坐，燃油车的出现替代了马车，消费升级带动的市场是非常大的，相当于从0到100。传统整车厂踩在时代和技术变更的肩膀上赚得盆满钵满。\n不否认像上汽这样的传统车企家大业大，要跟新入局就能扼住行业喉咙的华为低头，这口气或许真的咽不下去。转头想想，其实华为也已经布局多年了，并不是脑子一热就冲进了智能化的市场。资本市场都是逐利的，燃油车的时代终将会过去，全球都在快速发展碳中和，新能源汽车电动化、智能化的发展大势所趋。\n中国新能源汽车市场已经从政策引导型转为市场选择型，这时候还没有调转过头的传统车企应该放下多年的傲慢与偏见，快速转变风格，放低姿态，互利共赢。如果没有能力自己研发自动驾驶系统，传统车企的优势在于整车，吃掉代工的市场或许也是一件好生意。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":953,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":151243171,"gmtCreate":1625096358993,"gmtModify":1633944939098,"author":{"id":"3576666048636798","authorId":"3576666048636798","name":"小雨哈哈嘿","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/96d1061724d15e368e7cede7819f584b","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3576666048636798","authorIdStr":"3576666048636798"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"[微笑] ","listText":"[微笑] ","text":"[微笑]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/151243171","repostId":"2147894632","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1007,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":165567403,"gmtCreate":1624152181502,"gmtModify":1634010273738,"author":{"id":"3576666048636798","authorId":"3576666048636798","name":"小雨哈哈嘿","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/96d1061724d15e368e7cede7819f584b","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3576666048636798","authorIdStr":"3576666048636798"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"[微笑] ","listText":"[微笑] ","text":"[微笑]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/165567403","repostId":"2144708764","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":933,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":162647771,"gmtCreate":1624063250493,"gmtModify":1634023421854,"author":{"id":"3576666048636798","authorId":"3576666048636798","name":"小雨哈哈嘿","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/96d1061724d15e368e7cede7819f584b","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3576666048636798","authorIdStr":"3576666048636798"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"[微笑] ","listText":"[微笑] ","text":"[微笑]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/162647771","repostId":"2144572198","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2144572198","kind":"highlight","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"中国大陆领先的金融数据、信息和软件服务企业，总部位于上海陆家嘴金融中心。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Wind万得","id":"99","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c71e30d1317b4a5cb20a41998e10ac68"},"pubTimestamp":1623993218,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2144572198?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-18 13:13","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"超2万亿美股期权决战今晚“四巫日”","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2144572198","media":"Wind万得","summary":"美股今年第二个“四巫日”今晚到来，届时将有超2万亿美元美股期权到期，加上美联储暗示流动性或收紧，此次“四巫日”或许是美股的一个转折点。\n四巫日(Quadruplewitchingday)是指美国市场于","content":"<p>美股今年第二个“四巫日”今晚到来，届时将有超2万亿美元美股期权到期，加上美联储暗示流动性或收紧，此次“四巫日”或许是美股的一个转折点。</p>\n<p>四巫日(Quadruplewitchingday)是指美国市场于季月(三月、六月、九月、十二月)第三个星期五之衍生性金融商品到期结算日，股指期货、股指期权、股票期权以及单一股票期货，都在同一天到期交割。这四种资产类别同时交割会带来剧烈的市场波动，多头空头相互博弈。</p>\n<p><b>本周五到期的期权包括：价值2400亿美元的<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/IVV\">标普500指数ETF</a>期权，2000亿美元的迷你标普500指数期货以及1.8万亿美元的标普500指数期权，总计价值超2万亿美元。</b></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e084b716c88bd8163b59b6f21fa71734\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"399\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>由于近期美股一直在创新高，预计大部分6月未平仓合约价格都低于当前的现货价格。如下图所示，行权价在3900和4150附近期权分布最密集。这意味着在本周五之后，这些点周围可能会有一定的支撑，直到被新的gamma重新填充。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ac0e8bce636a6f73c6b57a18d39a180a\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"289\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>四巫日历来成交量都非常巨大，<b>但此次更值得注意的点是，此前美股波动率非常低，另外美联储流动性转折的暗示已经出来了。</b></p>\n<p>过去13个交易日，标普500指数波动率仅有5.1%，这是自2019年以来最低的波动率，但是与大盘死气沉沉相比，个股的波动性却极大，特别是散户抱团股，如GME和AMC等。</p>\n<p>野村证券的Charlie McElligott指出，<b>极低的大盘波动率与大量看涨gamma期权到期并存非常危险，</b>因为一旦头寸集体平仓，实际波动率可能会瞬间回升。同时，VIX指数期货相对于标普500指数Beta值不断上升，这表明，如果市场出现抛售，空头gamma仓位会回升，市场将变得更加不稳定。</p>\n<p>另外，周四的美联储议息会议并没有表示立即收紧流动性，但是也承认了通胀高企短期不会消失，相当于在鸽、鹰派之间走钢丝。但是周五却实实在在行动开始收紧流动性。</p>\n<p>周五，<b>68家对手方通过隔夜逆回购工具将7560亿美元资金放到美联储，刷新了5840亿美元的纪录高位。</b>而前一天。美联储的隔夜逆回购率的使用规模仅为5209亿美元。这意味着，在短短一天时间内，该工具的使用量增加了2351亿美元，增幅高达45%。</p>\n<p>美联储逆回购功效和中国刚刚相反，简单来说，我国央行逆回购的作用是为了释放流动性，而美联储逆回购则是为了收回流动性。自上周三用量史上首次突破5000亿美元大关以来，美联储逆回购工具的单日用量已连续七个交易日超过5000亿美元。</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>超2万亿美股期权决战今晚“四巫日”</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; 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float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n超2万亿美股期权决战今晚“四巫日”\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/99\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/c71e30d1317b4a5cb20a41998e10ac68);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Wind万得 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2021-06-18 13:13</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>美股今年第二个“四巫日”今晚到来，届时将有超2万亿美元美股期权到期，加上美联储暗示流动性或收紧，此次“四巫日”或许是美股的一个转折点。</p>\n<p>四巫日(Quadruplewitchingday)是指美国市场于季月(三月、六月、九月、十二月)第三个星期五之衍生性金融商品到期结算日，股指期货、股指期权、股票期权以及单一股票期货，都在同一天到期交割。这四种资产类别同时交割会带来剧烈的市场波动，多头空头相互博弈。</p>\n<p><b>本周五到期的期权包括：价值2400亿美元的<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/IVV\">标普500指数ETF</a>期权，2000亿美元的迷你标普500指数期货以及1.8万亿美元的标普500指数期权，总计价值超2万亿美元。</b></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e084b716c88bd8163b59b6f21fa71734\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"399\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>由于近期美股一直在创新高，预计大部分6月未平仓合约价格都低于当前的现货价格。如下图所示，行权价在3900和4150附近期权分布最密集。这意味着在本周五之后，这些点周围可能会有一定的支撑，直到被新的gamma重新填充。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ac0e8bce636a6f73c6b57a18d39a180a\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"289\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>四巫日历来成交量都非常巨大，<b>但此次更值得注意的点是，此前美股波动率非常低，另外美联储流动性转折的暗示已经出来了。</b></p>\n<p>过去13个交易日，标普500指数波动率仅有5.1%，这是自2019年以来最低的波动率，但是与大盘死气沉沉相比，个股的波动性却极大，特别是散户抱团股，如GME和AMC等。</p>\n<p>野村证券的Charlie McElligott指出，<b>极低的大盘波动率与大量看涨gamma期权到期并存非常危险，</b>因为一旦头寸集体平仓，实际波动率可能会瞬间回升。同时，VIX指数期货相对于标普500指数Beta值不断上升，这表明，如果市场出现抛售，空头gamma仓位会回升，市场将变得更加不稳定。</p>\n<p>另外，周四的美联储议息会议并没有表示立即收紧流动性，但是也承认了通胀高企短期不会消失，相当于在鸽、鹰派之间走钢丝。但是周五却实实在在行动开始收紧流动性。</p>\n<p>周五，<b>68家对手方通过隔夜逆回购工具将7560亿美元资金放到美联储，刷新了5840亿美元的纪录高位。</b>而前一天。美联储的隔夜逆回购率的使用规模仅为5209亿美元。这意味着，在短短一天时间内，该工具的使用量增加了2351亿美元，增幅高达45%。</p>\n<p>美联储逆回购功效和中国刚刚相反，简单来说，我国央行逆回购的作用是为了释放流动性，而美联储逆回购则是为了收回流动性。自上周三用量史上首次突破5000亿美元大关以来，美联储逆回购工具的单日用量已连续七个交易日超过5000亿美元。</p>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/be0bdd49975f3ab5453ab8ae8b24f37e","relate_stocks":{"161125":"标普500","513500":"标普500ETF","UVXY":"1.5倍做多恐慌指数短期期货ETF","SH":"标普500反向ETF","DDM":"道指两倍做多ETF","QLD":"纳指两倍做多ETF","PSQ":"纳指反向ETF","IVV":"标普500指数ETF","DOG":"道指反向ETF","SSO":"两倍做多标普500ETF","UDOW":"道指三倍做多ETF-ProShares","OEX":"标普100","UPRO":"三倍做多标普500ETF",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","DJX":"1/100道琼斯","SPXU":"三倍做空标普500ETF","SVXY":"0.5倍做空波动率指数短期期货ETF","SQQQ":"纳指三倍做空ETF",".DJI":"道琼斯","SDOW":"道指三倍做空ETF-ProShares","SPY":"标普500ETF","QQQ":"纳指100ETF","OEF":"标普100指数ETF-iShares",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","SDS":"两倍做空标普500ETF","QID":"纳指两倍做空ETF","DXD":"道指两倍做空ETF","VIXY":"波动率短期期货指数ETF","TQQQ":"纳指三倍做多ETF"},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2144572198","content_text":"美股今年第二个“四巫日”今晚到来，届时将有超2万亿美元美股期权到期，加上美联储暗示流动性或收紧，此次“四巫日”或许是美股的一个转折点。\n四巫日(Quadruplewitchingday)是指美国市场于季月(三月、六月、九月、十二月)第三个星期五之衍生性金融商品到期结算日，股指期货、股指期权、股票期权以及单一股票期货，都在同一天到期交割。这四种资产类别同时交割会带来剧烈的市场波动，多头空头相互博弈。\n本周五到期的期权包括：价值2400亿美元的标普500指数ETF期权，2000亿美元的迷你标普500指数期货以及1.8万亿美元的标普500指数期权，总计价值超2万亿美元。\n\n由于近期美股一直在创新高，预计大部分6月未平仓合约价格都低于当前的现货价格。如下图所示，行权价在3900和4150附近期权分布最密集。这意味着在本周五之后，这些点周围可能会有一定的支撑，直到被新的gamma重新填充。\n\n四巫日历来成交量都非常巨大，但此次更值得注意的点是，此前美股波动率非常低，另外美联储流动性转折的暗示已经出来了。\n过去13个交易日，标普500指数波动率仅有5.1%，这是自2019年以来最低的波动率，但是与大盘死气沉沉相比，个股的波动性却极大，特别是散户抱团股，如GME和AMC等。\n野村证券的Charlie McElligott指出，极低的大盘波动率与大量看涨gamma期权到期并存非常危险，因为一旦头寸集体平仓，实际波动率可能会瞬间回升。同时，VIX指数期货相对于标普500指数Beta值不断上升，这表明，如果市场出现抛售，空头gamma仓位会回升，市场将变得更加不稳定。\n另外，周四的美联储议息会议并没有表示立即收紧流动性，但是也承认了通胀高企短期不会消失，相当于在鸽、鹰派之间走钢丝。但是周五却实实在在行动开始收紧流动性。\n周五，68家对手方通过隔夜逆回购工具将7560亿美元资金放到美联储，刷新了5840亿美元的纪录高位。而前一天。美联储的隔夜逆回购率的使用规模仅为5209亿美元。这意味着，在短短一天时间内，该工具的使用量增加了2351亿美元，增幅高达45%。\n美联储逆回购功效和中国刚刚相反，简单来说，我国央行逆回购的作用是为了释放流动性，而美联储逆回购则是为了收回流动性。自上周三用量史上首次突破5000亿美元大关以来，美联储逆回购工具的单日用量已连续七个交易日超过5000亿美元。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":816,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":168690769,"gmtCreate":1623973217151,"gmtModify":1634025093699,"author":{"id":"3576666048636798","authorId":"3576666048636798","name":"小雨哈哈嘿","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/96d1061724d15e368e7cede7819f584b","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3576666048636798","authorIdStr":"3576666048636798"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"[开心] ","listText":"[开心] 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","text":"[微笑]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/162647771","repostId":"2144572198","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2144572198","kind":"highlight","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"中国大陆领先的金融数据、信息和软件服务企业，总部位于上海陆家嘴金融中心。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Wind万得","id":"99","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c71e30d1317b4a5cb20a41998e10ac68"},"pubTimestamp":1623993218,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2144572198?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-18 13:13","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"超2万亿美股期权决战今晚“四巫日”","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2144572198","media":"Wind万得","summary":"美股今年第二个“四巫日”今晚到来，届时将有超2万亿美元美股期权到期，加上美联储暗示流动性或收紧，此次“四巫日”或许是美股的一个转折点。\n四巫日(Quadruplewitchingday)是指美国市场于","content":"<p>美股今年第二个“四巫日”今晚到来，届时将有超2万亿美元美股期权到期，加上美联储暗示流动性或收紧，此次“四巫日”或许是美股的一个转折点。</p>\n<p>四巫日(Quadruplewitchingday)是指美国市场于季月(三月、六月、九月、十二月)第三个星期五之衍生性金融商品到期结算日，股指期货、股指期权、股票期权以及单一股票期货，都在同一天到期交割。这四种资产类别同时交割会带来剧烈的市场波动，多头空头相互博弈。</p>\n<p><b>本周五到期的期权包括：价值2400亿美元的<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/IVV\">标普500指数ETF</a>期权，2000亿美元的迷你标普500指数期货以及1.8万亿美元的标普500指数期权，总计价值超2万亿美元。</b></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e084b716c88bd8163b59b6f21fa71734\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"399\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>由于近期美股一直在创新高，预计大部分6月未平仓合约价格都低于当前的现货价格。如下图所示，行权价在3900和4150附近期权分布最密集。这意味着在本周五之后，这些点周围可能会有一定的支撑，直到被新的gamma重新填充。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ac0e8bce636a6f73c6b57a18d39a180a\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"289\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>四巫日历来成交量都非常巨大，<b>但此次更值得注意的点是，此前美股波动率非常低，另外美联储流动性转折的暗示已经出来了。</b></p>\n<p>过去13个交易日，标普500指数波动率仅有5.1%，这是自2019年以来最低的波动率，但是与大盘死气沉沉相比，个股的波动性却极大，特别是散户抱团股，如GME和AMC等。</p>\n<p>野村证券的Charlie McElligott指出，<b>极低的大盘波动率与大量看涨gamma期权到期并存非常危险，</b>因为一旦头寸集体平仓，实际波动率可能会瞬间回升。同时，VIX指数期货相对于标普500指数Beta值不断上升，这表明，如果市场出现抛售，空头gamma仓位会回升，市场将变得更加不稳定。</p>\n<p>另外，周四的美联储议息会议并没有表示立即收紧流动性，但是也承认了通胀高企短期不会消失，相当于在鸽、鹰派之间走钢丝。但是周五却实实在在行动开始收紧流动性。</p>\n<p>周五，<b>68家对手方通过隔夜逆回购工具将7560亿美元资金放到美联储，刷新了5840亿美元的纪录高位。</b>而前一天。美联储的隔夜逆回购率的使用规模仅为5209亿美元。这意味着，在短短一天时间内，该工具的使用量增加了2351亿美元，增幅高达45%。</p>\n<p>美联储逆回购功效和中国刚刚相反，简单来说，我国央行逆回购的作用是为了释放流动性，而美联储逆回购则是为了收回流动性。自上周三用量史上首次突破5000亿美元大关以来，美联储逆回购工具的单日用量已连续七个交易日超过5000亿美元。</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>超2万亿美股期权决战今晚“四巫日”</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; 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float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n超2万亿美股期权决战今晚“四巫日”\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/99\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/c71e30d1317b4a5cb20a41998e10ac68);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Wind万得 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2021-06-18 13:13</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>美股今年第二个“四巫日”今晚到来，届时将有超2万亿美元美股期权到期，加上美联储暗示流动性或收紧，此次“四巫日”或许是美股的一个转折点。</p>\n<p>四巫日(Quadruplewitchingday)是指美国市场于季月(三月、六月、九月、十二月)第三个星期五之衍生性金融商品到期结算日，股指期货、股指期权、股票期权以及单一股票期货，都在同一天到期交割。这四种资产类别同时交割会带来剧烈的市场波动，多头空头相互博弈。</p>\n<p><b>本周五到期的期权包括：价值2400亿美元的<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/IVV\">标普500指数ETF</a>期权，2000亿美元的迷你标普500指数期货以及1.8万亿美元的标普500指数期权，总计价值超2万亿美元。</b></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e084b716c88bd8163b59b6f21fa71734\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"399\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>由于近期美股一直在创新高，预计大部分6月未平仓合约价格都低于当前的现货价格。如下图所示，行权价在3900和4150附近期权分布最密集。这意味着在本周五之后，这些点周围可能会有一定的支撑，直到被新的gamma重新填充。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ac0e8bce636a6f73c6b57a18d39a180a\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"289\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>四巫日历来成交量都非常巨大，<b>但此次更值得注意的点是，此前美股波动率非常低，另外美联储流动性转折的暗示已经出来了。</b></p>\n<p>过去13个交易日，标普500指数波动率仅有5.1%，这是自2019年以来最低的波动率，但是与大盘死气沉沉相比，个股的波动性却极大，特别是散户抱团股，如GME和AMC等。</p>\n<p>野村证券的Charlie McElligott指出，<b>极低的大盘波动率与大量看涨gamma期权到期并存非常危险，</b>因为一旦头寸集体平仓，实际波动率可能会瞬间回升。同时，VIX指数期货相对于标普500指数Beta值不断上升，这表明，如果市场出现抛售，空头gamma仓位会回升，市场将变得更加不稳定。</p>\n<p>另外，周四的美联储议息会议并没有表示立即收紧流动性，但是也承认了通胀高企短期不会消失，相当于在鸽、鹰派之间走钢丝。但是周五却实实在在行动开始收紧流动性。</p>\n<p>周五，<b>68家对手方通过隔夜逆回购工具将7560亿美元资金放到美联储，刷新了5840亿美元的纪录高位。</b>而前一天。美联储的隔夜逆回购率的使用规模仅为5209亿美元。这意味着，在短短一天时间内，该工具的使用量增加了2351亿美元，增幅高达45%。</p>\n<p>美联储逆回购功效和中国刚刚相反，简单来说，我国央行逆回购的作用是为了释放流动性，而美联储逆回购则是为了收回流动性。自上周三用量史上首次突破5000亿美元大关以来，美联储逆回购工具的单日用量已连续七个交易日超过5000亿美元。</p>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/be0bdd49975f3ab5453ab8ae8b24f37e","relate_stocks":{"161125":"标普500","513500":"标普500ETF","UVXY":"1.5倍做多恐慌指数短期期货ETF","SH":"标普500反向ETF","DDM":"道指两倍做多ETF","QLD":"纳指两倍做多ETF","PSQ":"纳指反向ETF","IVV":"标普500指数ETF","DOG":"道指反向ETF","SSO":"两倍做多标普500ETF","UDOW":"道指三倍做多ETF-ProShares","OEX":"标普100","UPRO":"三倍做多标普500ETF",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","DJX":"1/100道琼斯","SPXU":"三倍做空标普500ETF","SVXY":"0.5倍做空波动率指数短期期货ETF","SQQQ":"纳指三倍做空ETF",".DJI":"道琼斯","SDOW":"道指三倍做空ETF-ProShares","SPY":"标普500ETF","QQQ":"纳指100ETF","OEF":"标普100指数ETF-iShares",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","SDS":"两倍做空标普500ETF","QID":"纳指两倍做空ETF","DXD":"道指两倍做空ETF","VIXY":"波动率短期期货指数ETF","TQQQ":"纳指三倍做多ETF"},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2144572198","content_text":"美股今年第二个“四巫日”今晚到来，届时将有超2万亿美元美股期权到期，加上美联储暗示流动性或收紧，此次“四巫日”或许是美股的一个转折点。\n四巫日(Quadruplewitchingday)是指美国市场于季月(三月、六月、九月、十二月)第三个星期五之衍生性金融商品到期结算日，股指期货、股指期权、股票期权以及单一股票期货，都在同一天到期交割。这四种资产类别同时交割会带来剧烈的市场波动，多头空头相互博弈。\n本周五到期的期权包括：价值2400亿美元的标普500指数ETF期权，2000亿美元的迷你标普500指数期货以及1.8万亿美元的标普500指数期权，总计价值超2万亿美元。\n\n由于近期美股一直在创新高，预计大部分6月未平仓合约价格都低于当前的现货价格。如下图所示，行权价在3900和4150附近期权分布最密集。这意味着在本周五之后，这些点周围可能会有一定的支撑，直到被新的gamma重新填充。\n\n四巫日历来成交量都非常巨大，但此次更值得注意的点是，此前美股波动率非常低，另外美联储流动性转折的暗示已经出来了。\n过去13个交易日，标普500指数波动率仅有5.1%，这是自2019年以来最低的波动率，但是与大盘死气沉沉相比，个股的波动性却极大，特别是散户抱团股，如GME和AMC等。\n野村证券的Charlie McElligott指出，极低的大盘波动率与大量看涨gamma期权到期并存非常危险，因为一旦头寸集体平仓，实际波动率可能会瞬间回升。同时，VIX指数期货相对于标普500指数Beta值不断上升，这表明，如果市场出现抛售，空头gamma仓位会回升，市场将变得更加不稳定。\n另外，周四的美联储议息会议并没有表示立即收紧流动性，但是也承认了通胀高企短期不会消失，相当于在鸽、鹰派之间走钢丝。但是周五却实实在在行动开始收紧流动性。\n周五，68家对手方通过隔夜逆回购工具将7560亿美元资金放到美联储，刷新了5840亿美元的纪录高位。而前一天。美联储的隔夜逆回购率的使用规模仅为5209亿美元。这意味着，在短短一天时间内，该工具的使用量增加了2351亿美元，增幅高达45%。\n美联储逆回购功效和中国刚刚相反，简单来说，我国央行逆回购的作用是为了释放流动性，而美联储逆回购则是为了收回流动性。自上周三用量史上首次突破5000亿美元大关以来，美联储逆回购工具的单日用量已连续七个交易日超过5000亿美元。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":816,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":163537219,"gmtCreate":1623888522531,"gmtModify":1634026475871,"author":{"id":"3576666048636798","authorId":"3576666048636798","name":"小雨哈哈嘿","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/96d1061724d15e368e7cede7819f584b","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3576666048636798","authorIdStr":"3576666048636798"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"赞","listText":"赞","text":"赞","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/163537219","repostId":"1158977040","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1342,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":377030842,"gmtCreate":1619483675086,"gmtModify":1634212433647,"author":{"id":"3576666048636798","authorId":"3576666048636798","name":"小雨哈哈嘿","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/96d1061724d15e368e7cede7819f584b","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3576666048636798","authorIdStr":"3576666048636798"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"[财迷] 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