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04-24

讲故事

03-02

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SPY vs. VOO: Which of Warren Buffett’s Two ETFs Is the Better Bet?

02-22

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英伟达电话会：预计下一代芯片B100供不应求，全球数据中心安装量未来5年翻一番

2021-08-20

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经济日报评互联网强监管：是阵痛也是机遇！

2021-08-10

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@格隆汇:高瓴诠释新赛道，最新建仓软件小龙头

2021-08-07

近两年没戏，后面走一步看一步

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2021-08-03

$辉瑞(PFE)$undervalued

2021-08-03

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从克林顿时代说起：互联网泡沫的缘起、疯狂与破灭

2021-07-29

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纳斯达克梦向三万点，或在这一个十年？

2021-07-27

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2021-07-24

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Palantir: Great Company, Risky Investment

2021-07-24

庞大的教培从业人员，何去何从

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2021-07-22

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睿远赵枫二季度持仓公布，小米集团仍为第一大重仓股

2021-07-21

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2021-07-17

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@桃李春风益点财:熊市警报已拉响！谨记五条生存守则！

2021-07-17

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2021-07-16

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2021-07-15

强强联合

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2021-07-15

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2021-07-15

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Warren Buffett likes SPY and VOO—but which is better? And what will Vanguard do in 2024? This is <i>Investing Insights.</i></p><p>Welcome to<i> Investing Insights. </i>I’m your host, Ruth Saldanha. Let’s get started with a look at the Morningstar headlines.</p><h2>Walmart’s Q4 Exceeded Expectations</h2><p>Walmart’s fourth-quarter results exceeded Morningstar’s expectations. The retailer continues to benefit from high customer sales with low prices. Walmart’s comparable sales expanded 4% during the quarter, offsetting a decline in the average amount each customer spends per visit. Domestic transactions have also increased consistently. Groceries gained more market share, while general merchandise declined slightly. Walmart carried out a 3-for-1 stock split on Feb. 23. Shares started trading on a postsplit basis on Feb. 26. The split did not change Morningstar’s view of the stock. The analyst maintains that Walmart’s shares are worth $49 each and are currently overvalued.</p><aside><div></div> <div></div></aside><h2>Nvidia’s Stellar Quarter and AI Demand</h2><p>Nvidia’s supercharged quarter resulted in Morningstar boosting what it thinks of the chipmaker’s stock. Morningstar lifted its fair value estimate for Nvidia to $730 per share from $480 per share, and the stock is fairly valued. The tech giant is forecasting a strong April quarter that stands to exceed Morningstar’s expectations. Leading cloud computing companies plan to boost their spending to satisfy demand for AI training and inference. It appears that virtually all this spending will fall into Nvidia’s pockets. Morningstar anticipates healthy growth for Nvidia’s data center revenue beyond 2024. Its total revenue in the January quarter was $22.1 billion, up 265% year over year. Its data center business remains most critical to investors, and data center revenue was $18.4 billion, up 409% year over year. Fiscal 2025 is looking to be a banner year for Nvidia as demand continues to exceed supply. Morningstar anticipates revenue will rise by a couple of billion dollars each quarter throughout fiscal 2025 for Nvidia as more chip supply comes online.</p><h2>Home Depot Felt Macro Pressures in Q4</h2><p>Home Depot’s fourth-quarter results reflect macroeconomic pressures, including a slow housing market and elevated mortgage rates. The home improvement chain’s net sales and earnings per share came in line with Morningstar’s expectations. The top-line decline was a byproduct of weaker customer transactions. Big-ticket purchases were especially slow. The firm expects housing headwinds to persist, leading to declines of 1% in both comparable sales and earnings per share. Now, Morningstar thinks that Home Depot’s persistent efforts to elevate the customer experience are strategically smart. These efforts include simplifying its online channels and building new order management for professional and contractor customers. Home Depot is poised to make meaningful strides in the underpenetrated and more complex pro market and gain share in the coming years. Morningstar maintains that Home Depot’s stock is worth $263 per share. Shares look overvalued.</p><h2>Berkshire Hathaway Releases Its 13F</h2><p>Earlier last month, Warren Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway released its 13F for the fourth quarter of 2023. The report suggests that Buffett’s company did not buy many stocks last quarter, adding no new names and increasing its stake in only three companies. However, Berkshire does have two ETFs listed on the 13F. The SPDR S&amp;P 500 ETF Trust, ticker SPY, and the Vanguard S&amp;P 500 ETF, ticker VOO. Mo’ath Almahasneh is an associate managing research analyst at Morningstar Research Services, and he covers both funds. He prefers one over the other and is here today to explain why.</p><aside><div></div> <div></div></aside><p>Mo’ath, thank you so much for being here today.</p><p><b>Mo’ath Almahasneh</b>: Thank you so much for having me. I appreciate it.</p><h2>SPY and VOO</h2><p><b>Saldanha</b>: So, let’s start by talking about both funds. They both track the S&amp;P 500 index, yes? Give us some of the main features of both funds. What makes them tick?</p><aside><div fixedheight=\"true\" usecontentheight=\"true\"></div> </aside><p><b>Almahasneh</b>: Well, both of them passively track the S&amp;P 500 index, which is a flagship index that represents 500 of the largest US stocks. Companies in the S&amp;P 500, to be included, they need to have positive revenue over the past four quarters, and they’re selected by an index committee. Even though the name might sound like this is a count-based index, this is actually decided and dictated by an index committee, and they decide on inclusions and deletions as well as rebalancing and reconstitution. The index relies on market-cap weighting to size the positions. That means it tilts into the winning stocks and it moves away from those losing stocks. And this allows the funds, both SPY and VOO, to track and represent the large-cap space of the US market very well. So, when technology stocks are in favor, the index tilts into technology stocks; when they’re not in favor, the index tilts away.</p><p>This can also lead to concentration when the market’s gains are narrow and few companies like the so-called “Magnificent Seven” are powering the market gains, which led to an increase in concentration in the index in 2023. By the end of 2023, in December, the top 10 holdings were about 29%, which was the highest percentage in four decades. Thirty percent were in technology stocks, and that is reminiscent of the dot-com bubble. However, this is not a fault in design but rather a reflection of the market’s current conditions. And these funds do a great job mimicking their target opportunity set, which is the US large-cap space.</p><h2>People and Process Pillar Ratings</h2><p><b>Saldanha</b>: Walk us through the People and the Process Pillars for both these funds. They earn the same ratings. Why is that?</p><p><b>Almahasneh</b>: Let’s start with the Process Pillar. Both of these funds track the same index. So, the Process rating comes from our view of the index, and the index mimics the target opportunity set very well and that allows the funds to capitalize off of their low fees to outperform their active peers on a risk-adjusted basis. That means that they basically capture the same stocks as their peers, but they just charge a little bit less, and that fee difference compounds over time into a meaningful outperformance on a risk-adjusted basis. The strategy is well diversified. It provides exposure to the largest and most established US companies; that enhances the diversification as well as the quality of the portfolio. So, when the market is up, the portfolio is up; when the market is down, the portfolio is down, but you’re holding the best and the brightest of all the US companies. And that informs our High Process rating for both of these funds. And that stems from their topnotch index that they track.</p><p>On the People Pillar side, both Vanguard and State Street Global Advisors, who are basically responsible for the management of both of these funds, they have technology personnel as well as resources to closely track the index and deliver low tracking error. And we view that very highly. And they also have a long history and an expansive lineup of index products that have been very successful, a testament to their Above Average People rating that we give them. And those are the main reasons why the Process and People Pillar ratings are the same.</p><h2>Why Does Vanguard Have a Better Rating?</h2><p><b>Saldanha</b>: Vanguard gets an edge because it has a slightly better Parent rating than State Street. Why is that?</p><p><b>Almahasneh</b>: Both State Street and Vanguard share the same low-cost approach to product development. They have excellent management and investment professional teams. However, Vanguard’s mutual ownership model and direct-to-investor approach, they stand out among peers. And mutual ownership direct-to-investor approach as well as Vanguard’s advice system has been the core reason for Vanguard’s immense growth over the past decade. It grew assets at around 5% per year, which has been a phenomenal run for Vanguard’s business. And therefore, these few marginal differences are the reasons why Vanguard stands above State Street when it comes to the Parent rating. However, you will not go wrong with any of those choices. It’s just marginal differences that might make a difference in the long run, but if you’re just a passive investor looking for a quick option, both options make sense.</p><p><b>Saldanha</b>: However, just one of them earns the coveted Gold rating. Tell us which one and why.</p><p><b>Almahasneh</b>: The main reason comes down to—and I cover a lot of passive index funds—a lot of the differences in ratings, they come down to the difference in fees. VOO charges 3 basis points, while SPY charges 9 basis points. Both are very low cost compared to the average ETF in the US market. Both are great options, well diversified, are run by amazing teams. However, fees do matter, and you get what you don’t pay for in the financial industry. So, that is the reason why we give VOO a Gold rating, while SPY a Silver rating. Over the long run, they do compound—those fee differences—and investors have been putting a lot more money into VOO versus SPY. That is the reason why we view VOO slightly better than SPY. And that is just the basic approach, which is the lower the investor can pay, the better the investment is.</p><h2>Structural Differences Between SPY and VOO</h2><p><b>Saldanha</b>: Mo’ath, the last thing I want to ask you is that there are some structural differences between the two funds, aren’t there? Tell us a little bit more about that.</p><p><b>Almahasneh</b>: SPY was launched as a unit investment trust and that prohibits its managers from engaging in basic operations that other ETFs are allowed to do that provide marginal differences to investors and that can reduce the impact of a fund’s fee. For example, managers of SPY cannot reinvest dividends, they cannot use derivatives to equitize cash, and they’re also prohibited from engaging in securities lending, which provide additional income to offset expenses that over the long run can help investors a little bit. However, these differences do not inform our rating, but these are important structural differences that we should point out to investors.</p><p><b>Saldanha</b>: Great, thank you so much for being here today, Mo’ath.</p><p><b>Almahasneh</b>: Thank you.</p><p><b>Saldanha</b>: Let’s stick with talking about Vanguard some more. Value investing has been paying off for the past couple of years, especially for Vanguard and BlackRock, the two 800-pound gorillas in the room. In fact, Vanguard’s index funds and ETFs (including VOO, which we just discussed) are popular choices with investors, thanks in part to their low costs and competitive long-term performances. How did the firm do last year, and what will it do this year? That’s what Morningstar Inc.’s Susan Dziubinski asked Dan Sotiroff, a senior manager research analyst with Morningstar Research Services. Here’s what he had to say.</p><p><b>Susan Dziubinski</b>: Let’s talk a little bit about new fund launches for Vanguard in 2024. What might be in the hopper? Where might you see them? Again, complete speculation, but where do you think they might go next?</p><p><b>Daniel Sotiroff</b>: It remains to be seen. It’s always a little bit of speculation, but I think fixed income is a big area. I think we touched on that before. That’s been a big area for the industry. It’s an area that I think has been overlooked in a lot of ways. There might be more value to be added there than there has been in the equity strategies. When we talked to Vanguard earlier this year, they said ETFs are definitely in the plans for their new fixed-income products, as we saw with the recent launches that are still pending. Along those lines, they did announce plans to launch an intermediate municipal-bond ETF. That’s going to be an index-tracking one. Then along the same lines, a California taxes and municipal-bond ETF. So, those are in the hopper for next year. So, clearly, they’re thinking along the fixed-income lines. We’ll see what comes out in terms of actively managed versus index-tracking. Both can be great offerings, I think, at the end of the day; Vanguard does both of them in a low-fee, broadly diversified format. So, that’s what I’m really watching for in terms of product launches.</p><h2>Vanguard’s 2024 International Business Outlook</h2><p><b>Dziubinski</b>: Let’s talk a little bit about Vanguard’s international business. Vanguard hasn’t really been nearly as successful outside of the US as it’s been here. Is there anything you’re going to be looking for on this front in 2024?</p><p><b>Sotiroff</b>: Yeah, to put some context around that, they’re still managing hundreds of billions of dollars. It’s a massive business. And a lot of asset managers would love to have that asset base. But you’re right, compared to their US business, it’s tiny in comparison. The things we’re really watching for are more from a business perspective. They’ve gotten into a few initiatives over the last couple of years, and they’ve backed out. This year, they left a German platform that they had created, called Vanguard Invest. That was really aimed at the DIY retail investor, led with index funds. So, it was largely an index-fund-type platform, I believe. They launched that in February 2022 and then got out this year. So, it was a very short-lived project. Similarly, they entered China a few years ago, and then they exited China, I think late last year, and then they finally got out fully this year. They had a joint venture with the Ant Group that they ended. So, it raises some questions about how committed are they to some of these markets, I think, on one end. At the same time, maybe they saw something that wasn’t working very well there and decided, hey, we’re just going to get out and not throw bad money after good type of thing.</p><p>I’m not privy to all the details that Tim Buckley and company are talking about in the boardroom, but that’s something we’re definitely going to be watching on is how do those international projects go and what do they stick with and what do they leave by the wayside. That’s probably the biggest thing we’re watching is just how do they go about looking at new markets and new strategies.</p><h2>Advice in 2024</h2><p><b>Dziubinski</b>: Lastly, Vanguard has made a significant push into advice here in the United States. Tell us about what the firm has done already and where you think things might be headed in 2024.</p><p><b>Sotiroff</b>: The way I would frame it is they’ve got great funds. No surprise, they’ve had great funds for a really long time. And they have a great platform. They have this tiered investment platform, Digital Advisor, a $3,000 minimum, 0.15% annual fee, $50,000 minimum goes up to Personal Advisor. So, then you get a little bit more hands-on financial planning advice. The fee goes up to 0.30% per year for that. Then you go to Personal Advisor Select, which is the next tier up, and that’s if you have like a $0.5 million portfolio. Then you’re getting access to more-holistic financial planning, hands-on type, actual human-in-the-loop type stuff to help you out. So, they have a great platform and everything. The underlying investments are great. I’ll reference Amy Arnott’s research in her robo-advisor report that came out earlier this year. The Digital Advisor platform came out as one of the best-in-class robo-advisors out there. So, that’s all great.</p><p>When we talked to Vanguard, they even admitted that really, it’s been the client experience side of things. It’s adding that personal touch to things and developing trust with clients and that sort of thing. That’s a real challenge, I think, especially when you’re trying to do financial planning on a large scale like this. At the same time, that’s a massive opportunity. If they can figure that out, and they’ve got this great fund base, the sky is the limit for them. It could really be the next big thing for them, I think, if they can figure it out. They’re going through some growing pains. There’s been some complaints out there from some clients that it isn’t working as well. But they’re clearly attentive to that. They realize it’s going on. They’re making some changes on the fly to adapt to it as they go. So, it’s going to be very interesting to see where that goes. I’m excited to see what they come up with because they’ve got a pretty compelling offering so far if they can figure out those little things around the edges to make it that much better.</p><p><b>Saldanha</b>: Thanks, Susan and Daniel! Subscribe to Morningstar’s YouTube channel to see new videos about investment ideas, market trends, and analyst insights. Thanks to senior video producer, Jake VanKersen, and thank you for watching <i>Investing Insights. </i>I’m Ruth Saldanha, editorial manager at Morningstar Research Inc.</p><h2>Read about topics from this episode.</h2><aside> <div><article><div><h3>Walmart Earnings: Low Prices Winning Over Customers, Who Are Spending More</h3> <div></div></div> <img height=\"80px\" src=\"https://cloudfront-us-east-1.images.arcpublishing.com/morningstar/2RGHQJTF4ZEURNSAGBY7CSHCUQ.jpg\" width=\"80px\"/></article><article><div><h3>Nvidia Earnings: Revenue Boom Fuels AI Hype</h3> <div></div></div> <img height=\"80px\" src=\"https://cloudfront-us-east-1.images.arcpublishing.com/morningstar/FHEM4B76URHR7ONRFX3AYBFK2Q.png\" width=\"80px\"/></article><article><div><h3>Home Depot Earnings: Prudently Navigating Macro Pressures With Strategic Execution</h3> <div></div></div> <img height=\"80px\" src=\"https://cloudfront-us-east-1.images.arcpublishing.com/morningstar/LBDI6DN3WVCCZAOR6QRL6PGTGM.jpg\" width=\"80px\"/></article><article><div><h3>Berkshire Hathaway 13F Filing: More Sells Than Buys in Quieter Q4</h3> <div></div></div> <img height=\"80px\" src=\"https://cloudfront-us-east-1.images.arcpublishing.com/morningstar/FGC25JIKZ5EATCXF265D56SZTE.jpg\" width=\"80px\"/></article><article><div><h3>Vanguard S&amp;P 500 ETF Still Sets a High Bar for Index-Tracking</h3> <div></div></div> <img height=\"80px\" src=\"https://cloudfront-us-east-1.images.arcpublishing.com/morningstar/HDPMMDGUA5CUHI254MRUHYEFWU.png\" width=\"80px\"/></article><article><div><h3>What’s in Store for Vanguard’s Funds, ETFs, and More in 2024</h3> <div></div></div> <img height=\"80px\" src=\"https://cloudfront-us-east-1.images.arcpublishing.com/morningstar/T2LGZCEHBZBJJPPKHO7Y4EEKSM.png\" width=\"80px\"/></article></div></aside></div></body></html>","source":"morningstar_etf_highlight","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>SPY vs. VOO: Which of Warren Buffett’s Two ETFs Is the Better Bet?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; 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overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nSPY vs. VOO: Which of Warren Buffett’s Two ETFs Is the Better Bet?\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2024-03-01 00:00 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.morningstar.com/etfs/spy-vs-voo-which-warren-buffetts-two-etfs-is-better-bet><strong>Morning Star</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Ruth Saldanha: Here’s what’s ahead on this week’s Investing Insights. Are Nvidia, Walmart, and Home Depot stocks a buy right now? Warren Buffett likes SPY and VOO—but which is better? And what will ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.morningstar.com/etfs/spy-vs-voo-which-warren-buffetts-two-etfs-is-better-bet\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://d10o6nnig0wrdw.cloudfront.net/02-29-2024/t_2fd3cafa746d46a2a76defcd14f1830f_name_file_960x540_1600_v4_.jpg","relate_stocks":{"LU0820561909.HKD":"ALLIANZ INCOME AND GROWTH \"AM\" (HKD) INC","OEF":"标普100指数ETF-iShares","SPXU":"三倍做空标普500ETF","LU0109392836.USD":"富兰克林科技股A","BK4587":"ChatGPT概念","IE0004445015.USD":"JANUS HENDERSON BALANCED \"A2\" (USD) ACC","LU1363072403.SGD":"Fidelity Global Financial Services A-ACC-SGD","LU0466842654.USD":"HSBC ISLAMIC GLOBAL EQUITY INDEX \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU0097036916.USD":"贝莱德美国增长A2 USD","BK4559":"巴菲特持仓","SPY":"标普500ETF","LU0689472784.USD":"安联收益及增长基金Cl AM AT Acc","NVDA":"英伟达","BK4550":"红杉资本持仓","BK4141":"半导体产品","IE00B3M56506.USD":"NEUBERGER BERMAN EMERGING MARKETS EQUITY \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU0971096721.USD":"富达环球金融服务 A","IE0034235188.USD":"PINEBRIDGE GLOBAL FOCUS EQUITY \"A\" (USD) ACC","FDN":"First Trust Dow Jones Internet I","BK4551":"寇图资本持仓","LU1074936037.SGD":"JPMorgan Funds - US Value A (acc) SGD","LU0149725797.USD":"汇丰美国股市经济规模基金","LU0820561818.USD":"安联收益及增长平衡基金Cl AM DIS","SDS":"两倍做空标普500ETF","LU0127658192.USD":"EASTSPRING INVESTMENTS GLOBAL TECHNOLOGY \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU0256863811.USD":"ALLIANZ US EQUITY \"A\" INC","LU1201861249.SGD":"Natixis Harris Associates US Equity PA SGD-H","BK4135":"资产管理与托管银行",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","LU0980610538.SGD":"Natixis Harris Associates US Equity RA SGD-H","OEX":"标普100","STT":"道富银行","IE00B775SV38.USD":"NEUBERGER BERMAN US MULTICAP OPPORTUNITIES \"A\" (USD) ACC","VOO":"Vanguard标普500ETF","BK4529":"IDC概念","BK4585":"ETF&股票定投概念","IE00BJJMRX11.SGD":"Janus Henderson Balanced A Acc SGD","UPRO":"三倍做多标普500ETF","LU0642271901.SGD":"Janus Henderson Horizon Global Technology Leaders A2 SGD-H","LU0048573561.USD":"FIDELITY AMERICA \"A\" (USD) INC","LU0079474960.USD":"联博美国增长基金A","SH":"标普500反向ETF","GB00BDT5M118.USD":"天利环球扩展Alpha基金A Acc","BRK.B":"伯克希尔B","SSO":"两倍做多标普500ETF","LU0056508442.USD":"贝莱德世界科技基金A2","IVV":"标普500指数ETF","IE00BJJMRY28.SGD":"Janus Henderson Balanced A Inc SGD","BK4567":"ESG概念"},"source_url":"https://www.morningstar.com/etfs/spy-vs-voo-which-warren-buffetts-two-etfs-is-better-bet","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2416402896","content_text":"Ruth Saldanha: Here’s what’s ahead on this week’s Investing Insights. Are Nvidia, Walmart, and Home Depot stocks a buy right now? Warren Buffett likes SPY and VOO—but which is better? And what will Vanguard do in 2024? This is Investing Insights.Welcome to Investing Insights. I’m your host, Ruth Saldanha. Let’s get started with a look at the Morningstar headlines.Walmart’s Q4 Exceeded ExpectationsWalmart’s fourth-quarter results exceeded Morningstar’s expectations. The retailer continues to benefit from high customer sales with low prices. Walmart’s comparable sales expanded 4% during the quarter, offsetting a decline in the average amount each customer spends per visit. Domestic transactions have also increased consistently. Groceries gained more market share, while general merchandise declined slightly. Walmart carried out a 3-for-1 stock split on Feb. 23. Shares started trading on a postsplit basis on Feb. 26. The split did not change Morningstar’s view of the stock. The analyst maintains that Walmart’s shares are worth $49 each and are currently overvalued. Nvidia’s Stellar Quarter and AI DemandNvidia’s supercharged quarter resulted in Morningstar boosting what it thinks of the chipmaker’s stock. Morningstar lifted its fair value estimate for Nvidia to $730 per share from $480 per share, and the stock is fairly valued. The tech giant is forecasting a strong April quarter that stands to exceed Morningstar’s expectations. Leading cloud computing companies plan to boost their spending to satisfy demand for AI training and inference. It appears that virtually all this spending will fall into Nvidia’s pockets. Morningstar anticipates healthy growth for Nvidia’s data center revenue beyond 2024. Its total revenue in the January quarter was $22.1 billion, up 265% year over year. Its data center business remains most critical to investors, and data center revenue was $18.4 billion, up 409% year over year. Fiscal 2025 is looking to be a banner year for Nvidia as demand continues to exceed supply. Morningstar anticipates revenue will rise by a couple of billion dollars each quarter throughout fiscal 2025 for Nvidia as more chip supply comes online.Home Depot Felt Macro Pressures in Q4Home Depot’s fourth-quarter results reflect macroeconomic pressures, including a slow housing market and elevated mortgage rates. The home improvement chain’s net sales and earnings per share came in line with Morningstar’s expectations. The top-line decline was a byproduct of weaker customer transactions. Big-ticket purchases were especially slow. The firm expects housing headwinds to persist, leading to declines of 1% in both comparable sales and earnings per share. Now, Morningstar thinks that Home Depot’s persistent efforts to elevate the customer experience are strategically smart. These efforts include simplifying its online channels and building new order management for professional and contractor customers. Home Depot is poised to make meaningful strides in the underpenetrated and more complex pro market and gain share in the coming years. Morningstar maintains that Home Depot’s stock is worth $263 per share. Shares look overvalued.Berkshire Hathaway Releases Its 13FEarlier last month, Warren Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway released its 13F for the fourth quarter of 2023. The report suggests that Buffett’s company did not buy many stocks last quarter, adding no new names and increasing its stake in only three companies. However, Berkshire does have two ETFs listed on the 13F. The SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust, ticker SPY, and the Vanguard S&P 500 ETF, ticker VOO. Mo’ath Almahasneh is an associate managing research analyst at Morningstar Research Services, and he covers both funds. He prefers one over the other and is here today to explain why. Mo’ath, thank you so much for being here today.Mo’ath Almahasneh: Thank you so much for having me. I appreciate it.SPY and VOOSaldanha: So, let’s start by talking about both funds. They both track the S&P 500 index, yes? Give us some of the main features of both funds. What makes them tick? Almahasneh: Well, both of them passively track the S&P 500 index, which is a flagship index that represents 500 of the largest US stocks. Companies in the S&P 500, to be included, they need to have positive revenue over the past four quarters, and they’re selected by an index committee. Even though the name might sound like this is a count-based index, this is actually decided and dictated by an index committee, and they decide on inclusions and deletions as well as rebalancing and reconstitution. The index relies on market-cap weighting to size the positions. That means it tilts into the winning stocks and it moves away from those losing stocks. And this allows the funds, both SPY and VOO, to track and represent the large-cap space of the US market very well. So, when technology stocks are in favor, the index tilts into technology stocks; when they’re not in favor, the index tilts away.This can also lead to concentration when the market’s gains are narrow and few companies like the so-called “Magnificent Seven” are powering the market gains, which led to an increase in concentration in the index in 2023. By the end of 2023, in December, the top 10 holdings were about 29%, which was the highest percentage in four decades. Thirty percent were in technology stocks, and that is reminiscent of the dot-com bubble. However, this is not a fault in design but rather a reflection of the market’s current conditions. And these funds do a great job mimicking their target opportunity set, which is the US large-cap space.People and Process Pillar RatingsSaldanha: Walk us through the People and the Process Pillars for both these funds. They earn the same ratings. Why is that?Almahasneh: Let’s start with the Process Pillar. Both of these funds track the same index. So, the Process rating comes from our view of the index, and the index mimics the target opportunity set very well and that allows the funds to capitalize off of their low fees to outperform their active peers on a risk-adjusted basis. That means that they basically capture the same stocks as their peers, but they just charge a little bit less, and that fee difference compounds over time into a meaningful outperformance on a risk-adjusted basis. The strategy is well diversified. It provides exposure to the largest and most established US companies; that enhances the diversification as well as the quality of the portfolio. So, when the market is up, the portfolio is up; when the market is down, the portfolio is down, but you’re holding the best and the brightest of all the US companies. And that informs our High Process rating for both of these funds. And that stems from their topnotch index that they track.On the People Pillar side, both Vanguard and State Street Global Advisors, who are basically responsible for the management of both of these funds, they have technology personnel as well as resources to closely track the index and deliver low tracking error. And we view that very highly. And they also have a long history and an expansive lineup of index products that have been very successful, a testament to their Above Average People rating that we give them. And those are the main reasons why the Process and People Pillar ratings are the same.Why Does Vanguard Have a Better Rating?Saldanha: Vanguard gets an edge because it has a slightly better Parent rating than State Street. Why is that?Almahasneh: Both State Street and Vanguard share the same low-cost approach to product development. They have excellent management and investment professional teams. However, Vanguard’s mutual ownership model and direct-to-investor approach, they stand out among peers. And mutual ownership direct-to-investor approach as well as Vanguard’s advice system has been the core reason for Vanguard’s immense growth over the past decade. It grew assets at around 5% per year, which has been a phenomenal run for Vanguard’s business. And therefore, these few marginal differences are the reasons why Vanguard stands above State Street when it comes to the Parent rating. However, you will not go wrong with any of those choices. It’s just marginal differences that might make a difference in the long run, but if you’re just a passive investor looking for a quick option, both options make sense.Saldanha: However, just one of them earns the coveted Gold rating. Tell us which one and why.Almahasneh: The main reason comes down to—and I cover a lot of passive index funds—a lot of the differences in ratings, they come down to the difference in fees. VOO charges 3 basis points, while SPY charges 9 basis points. Both are very low cost compared to the average ETF in the US market. Both are great options, well diversified, are run by amazing teams. However, fees do matter, and you get what you don’t pay for in the financial industry. So, that is the reason why we give VOO a Gold rating, while SPY a Silver rating. Over the long run, they do compound—those fee differences—and investors have been putting a lot more money into VOO versus SPY. That is the reason why we view VOO slightly better than SPY. And that is just the basic approach, which is the lower the investor can pay, the better the investment is.Structural Differences Between SPY and VOOSaldanha: Mo’ath, the last thing I want to ask you is that there are some structural differences between the two funds, aren’t there? Tell us a little bit more about that.Almahasneh: SPY was launched as a unit investment trust and that prohibits its managers from engaging in basic operations that other ETFs are allowed to do that provide marginal differences to investors and that can reduce the impact of a fund’s fee. For example, managers of SPY cannot reinvest dividends, they cannot use derivatives to equitize cash, and they’re also prohibited from engaging in securities lending, which provide additional income to offset expenses that over the long run can help investors a little bit. However, these differences do not inform our rating, but these are important structural differences that we should point out to investors.Saldanha: Great, thank you so much for being here today, Mo’ath.Almahasneh: Thank you.Saldanha: Let’s stick with talking about Vanguard some more. Value investing has been paying off for the past couple of years, especially for Vanguard and BlackRock, the two 800-pound gorillas in the room. In fact, Vanguard’s index funds and ETFs (including VOO, which we just discussed) are popular choices with investors, thanks in part to their low costs and competitive long-term performances. How did the firm do last year, and what will it do this year? That’s what Morningstar Inc.’s Susan Dziubinski asked Dan Sotiroff, a senior manager research analyst with Morningstar Research Services. Here’s what he had to say.Susan Dziubinski: Let’s talk a little bit about new fund launches for Vanguard in 2024. What might be in the hopper? Where might you see them? Again, complete speculation, but where do you think they might go next?Daniel Sotiroff: It remains to be seen. It’s always a little bit of speculation, but I think fixed income is a big area. I think we touched on that before. That’s been a big area for the industry. It’s an area that I think has been overlooked in a lot of ways. There might be more value to be added there than there has been in the equity strategies. When we talked to Vanguard earlier this year, they said ETFs are definitely in the plans for their new fixed-income products, as we saw with the recent launches that are still pending. Along those lines, they did announce plans to launch an intermediate municipal-bond ETF. That’s going to be an index-tracking one. Then along the same lines, a California taxes and municipal-bond ETF. So, those are in the hopper for next year. So, clearly, they’re thinking along the fixed-income lines. We’ll see what comes out in terms of actively managed versus index-tracking. Both can be great offerings, I think, at the end of the day; Vanguard does both of them in a low-fee, broadly diversified format. So, that’s what I’m really watching for in terms of product launches.Vanguard’s 2024 International Business OutlookDziubinski: Let’s talk a little bit about Vanguard’s international business. Vanguard hasn’t really been nearly as successful outside of the US as it’s been here. Is there anything you’re going to be looking for on this front in 2024?Sotiroff: Yeah, to put some context around that, they’re still managing hundreds of billions of dollars. It’s a massive business. And a lot of asset managers would love to have that asset base. But you’re right, compared to their US business, it’s tiny in comparison. The things we’re really watching for are more from a business perspective. They’ve gotten into a few initiatives over the last couple of years, and they’ve backed out. This year, they left a German platform that they had created, called Vanguard Invest. That was really aimed at the DIY retail investor, led with index funds. So, it was largely an index-fund-type platform, I believe. They launched that in February 2022 and then got out this year. So, it was a very short-lived project. Similarly, they entered China a few years ago, and then they exited China, I think late last year, and then they finally got out fully this year. They had a joint venture with the Ant Group that they ended. So, it raises some questions about how committed are they to some of these markets, I think, on one end. At the same time, maybe they saw something that wasn’t working very well there and decided, hey, we’re just going to get out and not throw bad money after good type of thing.I’m not privy to all the details that Tim Buckley and company are talking about in the boardroom, but that’s something we’re definitely going to be watching on is how do those international projects go and what do they stick with and what do they leave by the wayside. That’s probably the biggest thing we’re watching is just how do they go about looking at new markets and new strategies.Advice in 2024Dziubinski: Lastly, Vanguard has made a significant push into advice here in the United States. Tell us about what the firm has done already and where you think things might be headed in 2024.Sotiroff: The way I would frame it is they’ve got great funds. No surprise, they’ve had great funds for a really long time. And they have a great platform. They have this tiered investment platform, Digital Advisor, a $3,000 minimum, 0.15% annual fee, $50,000 minimum goes up to Personal Advisor. So, then you get a little bit more hands-on financial planning advice. The fee goes up to 0.30% per year for that. Then you go to Personal Advisor Select, which is the next tier up, and that’s if you have like a $0.5 million portfolio. Then you’re getting access to more-holistic financial planning, hands-on type, actual human-in-the-loop type stuff to help you out. So, they have a great platform and everything. The underlying investments are great. I’ll reference Amy Arnott’s research in her robo-advisor report that came out earlier this year. The Digital Advisor platform came out as one of the best-in-class robo-advisors out there. So, that’s all great.When we talked to Vanguard, they even admitted that really, it’s been the client experience side of things. It’s adding that personal touch to things and developing trust with clients and that sort of thing. That’s a real challenge, I think, especially when you’re trying to do financial planning on a large scale like this. At the same time, that’s a massive opportunity. If they can figure that out, and they’ve got this great fund base, the sky is the limit for them. It could really be the next big thing for them, I think, if they can figure it out. They’re going through some growing pains. There’s been some complaints out there from some clients that it isn’t working as well. But they’re clearly attentive to that. They realize it’s going on. They’re making some changes on the fly to adapt to it as they go. So, it’s going to be very interesting to see where that goes. I’m excited to see what they come up with because they’ve got a pretty compelling offering so far if they can figure out those little things around the edges to make it that much better.Saldanha: Thanks, Susan and Daniel! Subscribe to Morningstar’s YouTube channel to see new videos about investment ideas, market trends, and analyst insights. Thanks to senior video producer, Jake VanKersen, and thank you for watching Investing Insights. I’m Ruth Saldanha, editorial manager at Morningstar Research Inc.Read about topics from this episode. Walmart Earnings: Low Prices Winning Over Customers, Who Are Spending More  Nvidia Earnings: Revenue Boom Fuels AI Hype  Home Depot Earnings: Prudently Navigating Macro Pressures With Strategic Execution  Berkshire Hathaway 13F Filing: More Sells Than Buys in Quieter Q4  Vanguard S&P 500 ETF Still Sets a High Bar for Index-Tracking  What’s in Store for Vanguard’s Funds, ETFs, and More in 2024","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1218,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":276748740559000,"gmtCreate":1708591228887,"gmtModify":1708591230431,"author":{"id":"3576640463093459","authorId":"3576640463093459","name":"罗素London","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9969255f02bcdd16ca31ef33facd48df","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3576640463093459","authorIdStr":"3576640463093459"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看","listText":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看","text":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/276748740559000","repostId":"1139671012","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1139671012","pubTimestamp":1708590021,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1139671012?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2024-02-22 16:20","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"英伟达电话会：预计下一代芯片B100供不应求，全球数据中心安装量未来5年翻一番","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1139671012","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"英伟达指出，虽然当前GPU的供应正在改善，但需求仍然强劲，预计下一代产品的市场需求将超过供给，尤其是预计今年晚些时候发货的新一代芯片B100。黄仁勋表示，计算机行业正同时处于加速计算与生成式AI转型的开端，这将推动全球数据中心基础设施安装量在未来5年内翻一番，创造每年数千亿美元的市场机会。他表示，“构建和部署AI解决方案已经触及几乎每一个行业”，预计数据中心基础设施规模将在五年内翻番。","content":"<html><head></head><body><blockquote><p><strong>英伟达指出，虽然当前GPU的供应正在改善，但需求仍然强劲，预计下一代产品的市场需求将超过供给，尤其是预计今年晚些时候发货的新一代芯片B100。</strong></p></blockquote><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">黄仁勋认为，<strong>整个数据中心行业正在经历一次全新的变革。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">他在当地时间周三召开的英伟达财报电话会上表示，<strong>AI工厂作为一种新型的数据中心</strong>，将数据转化为极具价值的“代币”，比如人们在使用ChatGPT、Midjourney等服务中体验到的东西。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">黄仁勋表示，<strong>计算机行业正同时处于加速计算与生成式AI转型的开端</strong>，<strong>这将推动全球数据中心基础设施安装量在未来5年内翻一番</strong>，<strong>创造每年数千亿美元的市场机会。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">考虑到广阔的市场前景，黄仁勋称，2024年及以后，数据中心业务持续增长的条件都非常优秀，预计AI Enterprise未来会成为一项非常重要的业务。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">至于英伟达是否进军ASIC（专用芯片设计）市场，黄仁勋并没有做直接回答。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>英伟达CFO Colette Kress则在财报电话会议时表示，虽然当前GPU的供应正在改善，但需求仍然强劲，预计下一代产品的市场需求将超过供给，尤其是预计今年晚些时候发货的新一代芯片B100。他表示，“构建和部署AI解决方案已经触及几乎每一个行业”，预计数据中心基础设施规模将在五年内翻番。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">当地时间周三公布的财报显示，英伟达四季度营收同比猛增265%至221亿美元，高于分析师预期的204.1亿美元，单季度收入甚至高于2021年全年。最大营收来源数据中心部门，四季度营收达到184亿美元，同比暴增409%。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">英伟达营收和利润已连续三个季度创历史纪录，2024全财年营收增长126%。</p><blockquote><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>以下是英伟达第四季度财报电话会分析师问答全文内容：</strong></p></blockquote><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>高盛Toshiya Hari：</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">我的问题是关于数据中心业务的，Jensen（黄仁勋）。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">很明显，你知道你在这个行业做得非常好。我很好奇你对2024-2025日历年的数据中心业务的预期，过去三个月内有何变化？。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">希望您能谈谈数据中心领域中的一些新兴方向，比如软件、主权AI等。我认为您已经非常明确地表达了中长期的问题。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">最近有一篇关于英伟达可能进军ASIC（专用芯片设计）市场的文章，这有任何可信度吗？如果是这样，英伟达在未来几年内在这个市场上竞争和发展？</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>黄仁勋：</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">对于第一个问题。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">我们一次性指引一个季度，但从根本上讲，<strong>2024-2025年及以后的持续增长环境非常好。</strong>理由是<strong>，我们正处于两个全行业转型的开端，这两个转型都是全行业的。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">第一个是从通用计算到加速计算的转变，如您所知，通用计算开始失去动力。你可以从云服务提供商（CSP）的扩张和许多数据中心中看出，包括我们自己的通用计算中心，它可以将折旧从四年延长到六年。但当它不能像以前那样从根本上显着提高其数据处理量时，就没有理由使用更多CPU进行更新，因此必须加速一切。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">这是英伟达一直在开创的。加速计算可以显着提高LNG 效率，可以将数据处理成本下降20倍，这是一个巨大的数字。当然，还有速度。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">这种速度令人难以置信，以至于我们今天实现了第二次全行业的转型，称为生成式AI。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">是的，我们可以，我相信我们会在通话中谈论很多，但请记住，生成式AI是一种新的应用。它正在赋能一种新的软件生成方式，新类型的软件正在被创建。这是一种新的计算方式。您可以在传统的通用计算设备上进行生成式AI的任务。这一过程必须得到加速。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">第三，它正在赋能一个全新的行业，这是值得退一步审视的事情，与你最后一个关于主权AI的问题有关。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">在某种意义上，<strong>整个数据中心行业正在经历一次全新的变革。</strong>传统上的数据中心仅仅被用来计算数据、存储数据、为公司员工提供服务，现在，我们有了一种新型的数据中心，它专注于AI生成。我曾把它描述为AI工厂，本质上利用原材料，也就是数据，用英伟达生产的这些AI超级计算机来改造数据，<strong>将其转化为极具价值的“代币”。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>这些“代币”就是人们在震撼的ChatGPT、Midjourney或者现在搜索等服务中体验到的东西，所有这些推荐系统现在都由此增强。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">与此相关的所有超个性化服务，这些不可思议的初创公司，生成蛋白质、化学物质的数字生物学等等，所有这些“代币”都是在一种非常专业化的数据中心内生成的。我们称这种数据中心为AI超级计算机和AI生成工厂。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">但是我们看到的是多样性，我们在这一方面取得了许多进步。第一，我们做的推理量已经飙升，几乎每一次你和ChatGPT互动，我们都在做推理，每次你使用Midjourney时，我们也在做推理。每次你看到这些令人惊叹的生成视频，或者Runway、Firefly编辑的视频，英伟达都在做推理，<strong>我们的推理业务扩张巨大，大约在40%左右。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">训练量正在继续增加，因为这些模型变得越来越大，推理量也在增长，但我们也正在多样化进入新的行业。大型CSP仍在继续扩张。你可以从他们的资本支出和讨论中看出来。企业软件平台正在部署AI服务，Adobe就是一个很好的例子，还有SAP和其他公司。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">还有，消费者互联网服务现在正在通过生成式AI来增强他们所有的服务，以创建更多超个性化的内容。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">我们在谈论工业化的生成式AI。总的来说<strong>，以汽车、金融服务和医疗保健为的首垂直行业，现在已经达到了数十亿美元的规模。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">当然，还有主权AI。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">提出主权AI的原因是每个地区的语言、知识、历史和文化不同，他们拥有自己的数据。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">他们想要利用自己的数据，数据训练AI模型，开发数字化智能服务，创造属于自己的AI体系。世界各地的数据都不一样。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">因为这些数据对本国最有价值，因此各国会保护本国的数据，自己处理数据，自己开发、提供AI服务，而不是依赖外部AI系统。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">所以我们看到，日本、加拿大、法国、我和许多其他地区正在建设主权AI基础设施。因此，我的期望是，<strong>美国西部的经验，肯定会在世界各地复制</strong>。未来这些AI代工厂将遍布每个行业、每个公司、每个地区。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">所以我认为，生成式AI已经在去年真正成为一个全新的应用空间，一种全新的计算方式。一个全新的产业正在形成，这推动了我们的增长。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>摩根士丹利分析师Joe Moore：</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">40%的收入来自推理业务，这比我预期的要大。这个比例一年前大概是什么水平，大模型相关的推理业务增长了多少？英伟达是如何测量这一比例的？是否可靠？因为我假设在某些情况下，同一块GPU既可以用来训练也能够用来推理。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>黄仁勋：</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">我倒过来说，<strong>这个比例可能被低估了。</strong>让我告诉你为什么。一年前，当人们使用互联网、浏览新闻、观看视频、听音乐、查看推荐产品时，面对的是数万亿的数据，而假设你的手机只有三英寸，要将所有这些信息整合到如此小的空间中，需要强大的推荐系统。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">这些推荐系统过去全部基于CPU，但在最近转向了深度学习和生成式AI，这些推荐系统直接受益于GPU的加速。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">它需要GPU来加速嵌入、近邻搜索、重新排名，以及生成个性化推荐信息，所以现在的推荐系统运行的每一步都需要GPU。如你所知，推荐系统是这个星球上最大的软件引擎。世界上几乎所有主要公司都需要运行这些大型推荐系统。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">每当你使用ChatGPT就是在推断，每当你听到中途和他们为消费者产生的东西的数量。当你看到Getty时，我们用Getty和来自Adobe的Firefly所做的工作，这些都是生成模型。列表还在继续。这些我一年前提到的都不存在，都是100%新的。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">每当你使用ChatGPT时就是在做推理，Midjourney也是一样。我们与Getty、Adobe、Firefly等的合作，以及这些应用生成式模型，这些还在不断增加。我刚才提到的所有这些，一年前都不存在，100%都是新的。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>Bernstein Research分析师Stacy Rasgon：</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">你们预计下一代产品会面临供不应求，我想深入了解这方面的情况，导致下一代产品供应紧张的原因是什么？既然GPU供应正在放松，为什么下一代产品还会出现供不应求的局面。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">你预计这种限制会持续多久？是否意味着整个2025年日历年，下一代产品都会出现供应短缺。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>黄仁勋：</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">总的来说，我们的供应正在改善。我们的供应链做得非常出色，从晶圆，封装，存储，所有的电源调节器，到收发器、网络、电缆等我们所用到的组件，供应都在改善。。如您所知，人们认为英伟达GPU只是一块芯片，但英伟达Hopper GPU由35000个零件组成，重70磅。这些东西是我们制造的非常复杂的东西，人们称之为AI超级计算机是有充分理由的。如果你看看数据中心的后面，系统，布线令人难以置信。它是世界上最密集、最复杂的网络布线系统。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">我们的InfiniBand业务同比增长了5倍。供应链为我们提供了很大支持。所以总体来说，供应正在改善。我们预计需求仍会大于供给，我们会全力以赴。制程周期正在缩短，我们会继续努力。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">然而，正如你所知，每当我们开发新产品时，它就会从零上升到非常大的数字，这不可能在一夜之间完成。一切都在加速，但它不会。因此，<strong>当我们开发出新一代产品后，无法在短期内完全满足需求</strong>，现在我们正在增加H200的供应。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">我们也在扩大构建Spectrum-X平台。这是我们进入以太网世界的全新产品，目前已取得非常好的进展。InfiniBand是AI专用系统的标准，我们在以太网的基础新功能之上进行了增强，如自适应路由、拥塞控制、噪声隔离或流量隔离，以便我们可以针对AI优化以太网。因此，InfiniBand将是我们AI专用基础设施。Spectrum-X将是我们AI优化的网络，而且正在加速。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">所以，<strong>需求大于供应，这就是新产品通常会面临的问题。</strong>我们尽可能快地工作，以满足需求。但总的来说，我们的供应正在非常顺利地增加。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>TDCowen分析师Matt Ramsey：</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">下午好，Jason，我的问题由两部分组成，涉及到Stacy刚刚提到的供不应求的问题。首先是，贵公司如何考虑产品分配以满足客户的需求，以及是否监控产品库存情况避免库存积累。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">然后我想，Jason，我真的很想听听你和英伟达在客户之间分配产品的想法，许多客户竞相抢夺芯片，从行业到小型初创公司，从医疗保健领域到政府。这是一项非常独特的技术活，你正在推动它，我非常想听听你如何思考如何公平分配，才能在保障公司利益的同时兼顾整个行业利益。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>黄仁勋：</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">首先回答你关于我们如何与客户合作搭建GPU实例以及我们的分配流程的问题。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">我们合作的客户一直是多年来的长期合作伙伴，我们一直在协助他们在云端部署以及内部设置。许多服务提供商同时运营多个产品，以满足终端用户各种需求以及内部需求。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">当然，他们会提前规划新集群所需配置，我们不仅讨论当前的Hopper架构，也帮助他们了解下一波产品，听取他们的兴趣和需求。所以他们的采购和构建内容是一个持续变化的过程。但是我们建立的关系和他们对构建复杂性的理解确实帮助了我们进行分配，并且两者都有助于我们与他们的沟通。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">首先，我们的CSP对产品路线图和迭代有非常清晰的了解。我们与他们的透明沟通让其对产品放置时间和地点很有信心。他们了解产品的时间线和大致供应量。在分配上，我们尽量公平分配，避免不必要分配。如你之前说的，如果数据中心没准备好，分配没有任何意义。没有什么比闲置资源公平分配和避免不必要的分配更困难的了。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">关于你问到的终端市场，我们有一个优秀的生态系统，包括OEM、ODM、CSP和非常重要的终端市场。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">英伟达真正的独特之处是我们为合作伙伴和客户搭桥。我们将云服务供应商和代工与医疗、金融、AI开发者、大语言模型开发者、自动驾驶公司、机器人公司等客户连接。正在出现的各种机器人创业公司，从仓储机器人、手术机器人、人形机器人、各种非常有趣的机器人公司、农业机器人公司</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">到外科到人形机器人。所有这些创业公司和大公司都是构建在我们平台之上。我们直接支持他们。通常，我们可以通过分配给云服务供应商并同时将客户引入云服务供应商来实现双赢。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">独特的地方在于我们带来了我们的客户，我们带来了我们的合作伙伴、CSP和Oem，我们为他们带来了客户。生物公司、医疗保健公司、金融服务公司、AI开发商、大型语言模型开发商、自动驾驶汽车公司、机器人公司。只有一大批机器人公司正在崛起。他们的仓库机器人、手术机器人、人形机器人、农业机器人……各种非常有趣的机器人公司，所有这些初创公司都在帮助医疗保健、金融服务和汽车等领域的大公司在英伟达平台上工作。我们直接支持他们。通常，我们可以通过分配给CSP并同时将客户引入CSP来实现双赢。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">所以这个生态系统，你说得对，它是充满活力的，但在它的核心，我们希望公平分配，避免资源浪费，寻找连接合作伙伴和终端用户的机会，我们一直在寻找这些机会。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>瑞银分析师Timothy R.Curry：</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">非常感谢。我想问一下你们如何将积压订单转化为收入。显然，您的产品交货时间已经大大缩短了，但Colette没有谈论库存购买承诺，但如果我把加上你们获得的库存采购承诺和预付支持供应，你知道的，<strong>你的供应总和，实际上有点下降</strong>。我们应该如何解读这种下降？是因为交货时间缩短，英伟达不需要对供应商作出那么大的财务承诺了吗？还是英伟达正在接近填补订单和积压订单的平衡状态?</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>Colette Kress：</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">是的，让我强调一下我们对供应的三个不同方面的看法。你说得对，我们手头的库存，考虑到我们正在进行的分配，我们正在努力，因为货品入库后立即发给客户。我认为客户会赞赏我们满足他们需要的交货时间表的能力。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">其次，我们的购买承诺有很多不同组成部分，不仅包括我们生产所需的组件，也包括我们满足产能所需的组件，需求时间长度不一，其中一些可能会持续两个季度，但其中一些可能会持续多年。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">预付款也是一样，它们都是为了确保我们在几家供应商那里获得未来所需的备用产能。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">所以不应该过分解读这些大致相同的数字，因为我们正在提高供应量。所有这些都有不同的时间跨度，因为我们有时不得不提前很长时间购买东西或为我们建立产能。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>Melius Research分析师Ben Reitzes：</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">好的，谢谢。恭喜取得了如此亮眼的成绩。Colette，我想谈谈你对于毛利率的看法，它们回到了75%左右的水平，这是因为新产品中HBM内存含量吗？您认为还有其他原因吗？非常感谢。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>Colette Kress：</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">是的，感谢您的问题。正如我们在开场白中强调的，我们第四季度的业绩和第一季度的展望都比较特殊。这两个季度的毛利率也都是独特的，因为它们都受益于供应链中的组件成本，这种益处覆盖了我们的计算和网络产品，以及制造过程的多个阶段。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">展望未来，我们预测本财年的毛利率将回归到75%左右的水平，回到我们在第四季度和第一季度峰值之前的水平。所以真正驱动未来全年的毛利率的是我们产品组合，这将是最重要的驱动因素。这些就是驱动毛利率的主要因素。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>Cantra Fitzgerald分析师CJ Muse：</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">下午好，Jason，GPU算力在过去十年提升了100万倍，面对这种飞速提升，英伟达客户如何看待他们今天所做的英伟达投资的长期可用性。今天用于训练的系统未来是否还可以用于推理。你认为这会如何发展？</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>黄仁勋：</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">谢谢你的问题。是的，真正酷的地方在于，我们能够极大地提升性能，那是因为我们的平台有两大特点：一是加速的能力，二是可编程性。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">英伟达是唯一一个从最初就始终如一的架构，从最开始的卷积神经网络，Alex Krizhevsky、Ilya Sutskever和Geoffrey Hinton首次提出的AlexNet，到RNN、LSTM、RLS，再到Transformers，比如Vision Transformers、Multi-modality Transformers 等，每一个AI的变种模型，我们都能支持它们，优化我们的堆栈，并将其部署到我们安装的用户设备基础上。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">这真的是最了不起的地方。一方面，我们可以发明新的架构和技术，像我们的Tensor Core(张量核心)，张量核心转换引擎，改进数据格式和处理结构，就像在Tensor Core中所做的工作那样。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">同时，我们也支持原有的安装基础。因此，我们的所有新软件算法创新，以及行业的所有新模型创新，都可以在一个基础上运行。另一方面，当我们看到革命性的东西，例如转换器，我们可以创建全新的东西，像Hopper转换引擎，并在未来进行应用。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">因此，我们同时拥有将软件引入安装基础并不断改进的能力，因此随着时间的推移，我们的客户安装基础随着我们的新软件而丰富。另一方面，新技术创造了革命性的能力。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">如果未来一代在LLM上出现突破，不要感到惊讶。这些突破，其中一些是软件方面的，因为它们运行在CUDA平台上，提供给安装基础。所以我们带着所有人一起前进。一方面，我们取得巨大突破;另一方面，我们支持原有基础。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>Piper Sandler分析师Harsh Kumar：</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">我想谈谈英伟达的软件业务，很高兴听到它的营收超过10亿美元。但我希望，Jensen或Collatif，帮助我们稍微拆解一下，以便我们更好地了解该业务的增长源。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>黄仁勋：</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">让我退后一步解释，英伟达在软件中非常成功的根本原因。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">首先，你知道，加速计算真正在云端蓬勃发展。CSP有非常大的工程团队， 我们与他们合作的方式允许他们运营和管理自己的业务。。如果有任何问题，我们会派出大型团队为他们服务。他们的工程团队直接与我们的工程团队对接，改进、修复、维护、修复复杂的加速计算软件栈。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">加速计算和通用计算截然不同，并不是从C++这样的程序开始，编译后在所有CPU上运行。从数据处理、结构化数据与所有图像、文本、PDF这样的非结构化数据，到经典机器学习、计算机视觉、语音、大语言模型，再到所有推荐系统，每个领域都需要不同的软件栈。这就是为什么英伟达有数百个软件库的原因。没有软件就无法开拓新市场，无法启用新的应用。软件对加速计算来说是基础。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">如您所知，加速计算与通用计算非常不同。你不是从C++这样的程序开始的。你编译它，一切都在你的所有CPU上运行。每个领域所需的软件堆栈从数据处理、SQL数据库、结构数据与所有图像、文本和PDF（非结构化）到经典机器学习、计算机视觉、语音、两个大型语言模型、所有推荐系统，所有这些都需要不同的软件堆栈。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">这就是英伟达拥有数百个库的原因。如果你没有软件，你就无法打开新市场。如果您没有软件，则无法打开和启用新应用程序。软件对于加速计算至关重要。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">这是加速计算和通用计算之间的根本区别，大多数人花了很长时间才理解，现在人们明白，软件在我们与CSP合作的方式中非常关键。这非常简单，我们的大型团队正在与他们的大型团队合作。然而，现在生成式AI使每个企业和企业软件公司都能拥抱加速计算，拥抱加速计算现在是必需的，仅仅依靠通用计算提高处理量已不再可行。所有这些企业软件公司和企业公司都没有大型工程团队来维护和优化他们的软件堆栈，以在全球所有云和私有云以及本地运行。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">因此，我们将对他们所有的软件堆栈进行管理、优化、修补、调整，优化安装基础。我们将它们容器化到我们的堆栈中，我们称之为英伟达AIEnterprise。我们将其推向市场的方式是将英伟达AIEnterprise视为运行时，就像操作系统一样。这是一个人工智能操作系统。我们每年对每个GPU收取4500美元。我的猜测是，世界上的每一家企业，每一家在所有云和私有云中部署软件的软件企业公司。首先，我们将在英伟达AI企业上运行，尤其是，你知道，显然是为了我们的GPU。因此，随着时间的推移，这可能会成为一项非常重要的业务。我们有一个很好的开始。Collette提到它已经以10亿美元的速度增长，我们才刚刚开始。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>黄仁勋闭会总结：</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">计算机行业正在同时向两个方向转变 (加速计算与生成式 AI)。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">价值数万亿美元的数据中心安装基础正在从通用计算转向加速计算。每个数据中心都将得到加速，使世界能够在提高处理量来满足计算需求的同时，管理成本和能源。英伟达实现了令人难以置信的加速，它实现了一种全新的计算范式，即生成式 AI，其中软件可以学习、理解和生成从人类语言到生物结构和 3D 世界的任何信息。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">我们现在正处于一个新兴行业的开端，专用AI数据中心处理大量原始数据以将其提炼成数字智能，就像上一场工业革命的交流发电厂。英伟达AI超级计算机实际上是这场工业革命的AI生成工厂。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">每个公司和每个行业从根本上来说都是建立在其专有的商业智能之上，在未来，他们专有的生成式AI启动了一个全新的投资周期，以构建下一个万亿美元的AI生成工厂基础设施。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">我们相信，<strong>这两大趋势将推动未来 5 年内使全球数据中心基础设施安装量翻一番，每年创造数千亿美元的市场机会。</strong>这种新的人工智能基础设施将开辟一个今天不可能实现的全新应用世界。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">我们与超大规模云提供商和消费者互联网公司一起开启了人工智能之旅。现在，从汽车、医疗保健、金融服务到工业电信、媒体和娱乐，每个行业都参与其中。英伟达的全栈计算平台具有特定行业的应用框架以及庞大的开发者和合作伙伴生态系统，为我们提供了速度、规模和影响力，帮助每个公司、每个行业的公司成为人工智能公司。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">在下个月于圣何塞举行的GTC上，我们有很多东西要与您分享，所以请务必加入我们。我们期待向您介绍下季度的最新进展。</p></body></html>","source":"wallstreetcn_api","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>英伟达电话会：预计下一代芯片B100供不应求，全球数据中心安装量未来5年翻一番</title>\n<style 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}\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n英伟达电话会：预计下一代芯片B100供不应求，全球数据中心安装量未来5年翻一番\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2024-02-22 16:20 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3708800?keyword=%E8%8B%B1%E4%BC%9F%E8%BE%BE><strong>华尔街见闻</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>英伟达指出，虽然当前GPU的供应正在改善，但需求仍然强劲，预计下一代产品的市场需求将超过供给，尤其是预计今年晚些时候发货的新一代芯片B100。黄仁勋认为，整个数据中心行业正在经历一次全新的变革。他在当地时间周三召开的英伟达财报电话会上表示，AI工厂作为一种新型的数据中心，将数据转化为极具价值的“代币”，比如人们在使用ChatGPT、Midjourney等服务中体验到的东西。黄仁勋表示，计算机行业正...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3708800?keyword=%E8%8B%B1%E4%BC%9F%E8%BE%BE\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6954d1dc2b34c5f605b752cf346a1934","relate_stocks":{"NVDA":"英伟达"},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3708800?keyword=%E8%8B%B1%E4%BC%9F%E8%BE%BE","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1139671012","content_text":"英伟达指出，虽然当前GPU的供应正在改善，但需求仍然强劲，预计下一代产品的市场需求将超过供给，尤其是预计今年晚些时候发货的新一代芯片B100。黄仁勋认为，整个数据中心行业正在经历一次全新的变革。他在当地时间周三召开的英伟达财报电话会上表示，AI工厂作为一种新型的数据中心，将数据转化为极具价值的“代币”，比如人们在使用ChatGPT、Midjourney等服务中体验到的东西。黄仁勋表示，计算机行业正同时处于加速计算与生成式AI转型的开端，这将推动全球数据中心基础设施安装量在未来5年内翻一番，创造每年数千亿美元的市场机会。考虑到广阔的市场前景，黄仁勋称，2024年及以后，数据中心业务持续增长的条件都非常优秀，预计AI Enterprise未来会成为一项非常重要的业务。至于英伟达是否进军ASIC（专用芯片设计）市场，黄仁勋并没有做直接回答。英伟达CFO Colette Kress则在财报电话会议时表示，虽然当前GPU的供应正在改善，但需求仍然强劲，预计下一代产品的市场需求将超过供给，尤其是预计今年晚些时候发货的新一代芯片B100。他表示，“构建和部署AI解决方案已经触及几乎每一个行业”，预计数据中心基础设施规模将在五年内翻番。当地时间周三公布的财报显示，英伟达四季度营收同比猛增265%至221亿美元，高于分析师预期的204.1亿美元，单季度收入甚至高于2021年全年。最大营收来源数据中心部门，四季度营收达到184亿美元，同比暴增409%。英伟达营收和利润已连续三个季度创历史纪录，2024全财年营收增长126%。以下是英伟达第四季度财报电话会分析师问答全文内容：高盛Toshiya Hari：我的问题是关于数据中心业务的，Jensen（黄仁勋）。很明显，你知道你在这个行业做得非常好。我很好奇你对2024-2025日历年的数据中心业务的预期，过去三个月内有何变化？。希望您能谈谈数据中心领域中的一些新兴方向，比如软件、主权AI等。我认为您已经非常明确地表达了中长期的问题。最近有一篇关于英伟达可能进军ASIC（专用芯片设计）市场的文章，这有任何可信度吗？如果是这样，英伟达在未来几年内在这个市场上竞争和发展？黄仁勋：对于第一个问题。我们一次性指引一个季度，但从根本上讲，2024-2025年及以后的持续增长环境非常好。理由是，我们正处于两个全行业转型的开端，这两个转型都是全行业的。第一个是从通用计算到加速计算的转变，如您所知，通用计算开始失去动力。你可以从云服务提供商（CSP）的扩张和许多数据中心中看出，包括我们自己的通用计算中心，它可以将折旧从四年延长到六年。但当它不能像以前那样从根本上显着提高其数据处理量时，就没有理由使用更多CPU进行更新，因此必须加速一切。这是英伟达一直在开创的。加速计算可以显着提高LNG 效率，可以将数据处理成本下降20倍，这是一个巨大的数字。当然，还有速度。这种速度令人难以置信，以至于我们今天实现了第二次全行业的转型，称为生成式AI。是的，我们可以，我相信我们会在通话中谈论很多，但请记住，生成式AI是一种新的应用。它正在赋能一种新的软件生成方式，新类型的软件正在被创建。这是一种新的计算方式。您可以在传统的通用计算设备上进行生成式AI的任务。这一过程必须得到加速。第三，它正在赋能一个全新的行业，这是值得退一步审视的事情，与你最后一个关于主权AI的问题有关。在某种意义上，整个数据中心行业正在经历一次全新的变革。传统上的数据中心仅仅被用来计算数据、存储数据、为公司员工提供服务，现在，我们有了一种新型的数据中心，它专注于AI生成。我曾把它描述为AI工厂，本质上利用原材料，也就是数据，用英伟达生产的这些AI超级计算机来改造数据，将其转化为极具价值的“代币”。这些“代币”就是人们在震撼的ChatGPT、Midjourney或者现在搜索等服务中体验到的东西，所有这些推荐系统现在都由此增强。与此相关的所有超个性化服务，这些不可思议的初创公司，生成蛋白质、化学物质的数字生物学等等，所有这些“代币”都是在一种非常专业化的数据中心内生成的。我们称这种数据中心为AI超级计算机和AI生成工厂。但是我们看到的是多样性，我们在这一方面取得了许多进步。第一，我们做的推理量已经飙升，几乎每一次你和ChatGPT互动，我们都在做推理，每次你使用Midjourney时，我们也在做推理。每次你看到这些令人惊叹的生成视频，或者Runway、Firefly编辑的视频，英伟达都在做推理，我们的推理业务扩张巨大，大约在40%左右。训练量正在继续增加，因为这些模型变得越来越大，推理量也在增长，但我们也正在多样化进入新的行业。大型CSP仍在继续扩张。你可以从他们的资本支出和讨论中看出来。企业软件平台正在部署AI服务，Adobe就是一个很好的例子，还有SAP和其他公司。还有，消费者互联网服务现在正在通过生成式AI来增强他们所有的服务，以创建更多超个性化的内容。我们在谈论工业化的生成式AI。总的来说，以汽车、金融服务和医疗保健为的首垂直行业，现在已经达到了数十亿美元的规模。当然，还有主权AI。提出主权AI的原因是每个地区的语言、知识、历史和文化不同，他们拥有自己的数据。他们想要利用自己的数据，数据训练AI模型，开发数字化智能服务，创造属于自己的AI体系。世界各地的数据都不一样。因为这些数据对本国最有价值，因此各国会保护本国的数据，自己处理数据，自己开发、提供AI服务，而不是依赖外部AI系统。所以我们看到，日本、加拿大、法国、我和许多其他地区正在建设主权AI基础设施。因此，我的期望是，美国西部的经验，肯定会在世界各地复制。未来这些AI代工厂将遍布每个行业、每个公司、每个地区。所以我认为，生成式AI已经在去年真正成为一个全新的应用空间，一种全新的计算方式。一个全新的产业正在形成，这推动了我们的增长。摩根士丹利分析师Joe Moore：40%的收入来自推理业务，这比我预期的要大。这个比例一年前大概是什么水平，大模型相关的推理业务增长了多少？英伟达是如何测量这一比例的？是否可靠？因为我假设在某些情况下，同一块GPU既可以用来训练也能够用来推理。黄仁勋：我倒过来说，这个比例可能被低估了。让我告诉你为什么。一年前，当人们使用互联网、浏览新闻、观看视频、听音乐、查看推荐产品时，面对的是数万亿的数据，而假设你的手机只有三英寸，要将所有这些信息整合到如此小的空间中，需要强大的推荐系统。这些推荐系统过去全部基于CPU，但在最近转向了深度学习和生成式AI，这些推荐系统直接受益于GPU的加速。它需要GPU来加速嵌入、近邻搜索、重新排名，以及生成个性化推荐信息，所以现在的推荐系统运行的每一步都需要GPU。如你所知，推荐系统是这个星球上最大的软件引擎。世界上几乎所有主要公司都需要运行这些大型推荐系统。每当你使用ChatGPT就是在推断，每当你听到中途和他们为消费者产生的东西的数量。当你看到Getty时，我们用Getty和来自Adobe的Firefly所做的工作，这些都是生成模型。列表还在继续。这些我一年前提到的都不存在，都是100%新的。每当你使用ChatGPT时就是在做推理，Midjourney也是一样。我们与Getty、Adobe、Firefly等的合作，以及这些应用生成式模型，这些还在不断增加。我刚才提到的所有这些，一年前都不存在，100%都是新的。Bernstein Research分析师Stacy Rasgon：你们预计下一代产品会面临供不应求，我想深入了解这方面的情况，导致下一代产品供应紧张的原因是什么？既然GPU供应正在放松，为什么下一代产品还会出现供不应求的局面。你预计这种限制会持续多久？是否意味着整个2025年日历年，下一代产品都会出现供应短缺。黄仁勋：总的来说，我们的供应正在改善。我们的供应链做得非常出色，从晶圆，封装，存储，所有的电源调节器，到收发器、网络、电缆等我们所用到的组件，供应都在改善。。如您所知，人们认为英伟达GPU只是一块芯片，但英伟达Hopper GPU由35000个零件组成，重70磅。这些东西是我们制造的非常复杂的东西，人们称之为AI超级计算机是有充分理由的。如果你看看数据中心的后面，系统，布线令人难以置信。它是世界上最密集、最复杂的网络布线系统。我们的InfiniBand业务同比增长了5倍。供应链为我们提供了很大支持。所以总体来说，供应正在改善。我们预计需求仍会大于供给，我们会全力以赴。制程周期正在缩短，我们会继续努力。然而，正如你所知，每当我们开发新产品时，它就会从零上升到非常大的数字，这不可能在一夜之间完成。一切都在加速，但它不会。因此，当我们开发出新一代产品后，无法在短期内完全满足需求，现在我们正在增加H200的供应。我们也在扩大构建Spectrum-X平台。这是我们进入以太网世界的全新产品，目前已取得非常好的进展。InfiniBand是AI专用系统的标准，我们在以太网的基础新功能之上进行了增强，如自适应路由、拥塞控制、噪声隔离或流量隔离，以便我们可以针对AI优化以太网。因此，InfiniBand将是我们AI专用基础设施。Spectrum-X将是我们AI优化的网络，而且正在加速。所以，需求大于供应，这就是新产品通常会面临的问题。我们尽可能快地工作，以满足需求。但总的来说，我们的供应正在非常顺利地增加。TDCowen分析师Matt Ramsey：下午好，Jason，我的问题由两部分组成，涉及到Stacy刚刚提到的供不应求的问题。首先是，贵公司如何考虑产品分配以满足客户的需求，以及是否监控产品库存情况避免库存积累。然后我想，Jason，我真的很想听听你和英伟达在客户之间分配产品的想法，许多客户竞相抢夺芯片，从行业到小型初创公司，从医疗保健领域到政府。这是一项非常独特的技术活，你正在推动它，我非常想听听你如何思考如何公平分配，才能在保障公司利益的同时兼顾整个行业利益。黄仁勋：首先回答你关于我们如何与客户合作搭建GPU实例以及我们的分配流程的问题。我们合作的客户一直是多年来的长期合作伙伴，我们一直在协助他们在云端部署以及内部设置。许多服务提供商同时运营多个产品，以满足终端用户各种需求以及内部需求。当然，他们会提前规划新集群所需配置，我们不仅讨论当前的Hopper架构，也帮助他们了解下一波产品，听取他们的兴趣和需求。所以他们的采购和构建内容是一个持续变化的过程。但是我们建立的关系和他们对构建复杂性的理解确实帮助了我们进行分配，并且两者都有助于我们与他们的沟通。首先，我们的CSP对产品路线图和迭代有非常清晰的了解。我们与他们的透明沟通让其对产品放置时间和地点很有信心。他们了解产品的时间线和大致供应量。在分配上，我们尽量公平分配，避免不必要分配。如你之前说的，如果数据中心没准备好，分配没有任何意义。没有什么比闲置资源公平分配和避免不必要的分配更困难的了。关于你问到的终端市场，我们有一个优秀的生态系统，包括OEM、ODM、CSP和非常重要的终端市场。英伟达真正的独特之处是我们为合作伙伴和客户搭桥。我们将云服务供应商和代工与医疗、金融、AI开发者、大语言模型开发者、自动驾驶公司、机器人公司等客户连接。正在出现的各种机器人创业公司，从仓储机器人、手术机器人、人形机器人、各种非常有趣的机器人公司、农业机器人公司到外科到人形机器人。所有这些创业公司和大公司都是构建在我们平台之上。我们直接支持他们。通常，我们可以通过分配给云服务供应商并同时将客户引入云服务供应商来实现双赢。独特的地方在于我们带来了我们的客户，我们带来了我们的合作伙伴、CSP和Oem，我们为他们带来了客户。生物公司、医疗保健公司、金融服务公司、AI开发商、大型语言模型开发商、自动驾驶汽车公司、机器人公司。只有一大批机器人公司正在崛起。他们的仓库机器人、手术机器人、人形机器人、农业机器人……各种非常有趣的机器人公司，所有这些初创公司都在帮助医疗保健、金融服务和汽车等领域的大公司在英伟达平台上工作。我们直接支持他们。通常，我们可以通过分配给CSP并同时将客户引入CSP来实现双赢。所以这个生态系统，你说得对，它是充满活力的，但在它的核心，我们希望公平分配，避免资源浪费，寻找连接合作伙伴和终端用户的机会，我们一直在寻找这些机会。瑞银分析师Timothy R.Curry：非常感谢。我想问一下你们如何将积压订单转化为收入。显然，您的产品交货时间已经大大缩短了，但Colette没有谈论库存购买承诺，但如果我把加上你们获得的库存采购承诺和预付支持供应，你知道的，你的供应总和，实际上有点下降。我们应该如何解读这种下降？是因为交货时间缩短，英伟达不需要对供应商作出那么大的财务承诺了吗？还是英伟达正在接近填补订单和积压订单的平衡状态?Colette Kress：是的，让我强调一下我们对供应的三个不同方面的看法。你说得对，我们手头的库存，考虑到我们正在进行的分配，我们正在努力，因为货品入库后立即发给客户。我认为客户会赞赏我们满足他们需要的交货时间表的能力。其次，我们的购买承诺有很多不同组成部分，不仅包括我们生产所需的组件，也包括我们满足产能所需的组件，需求时间长度不一，其中一些可能会持续两个季度，但其中一些可能会持续多年。预付款也是一样，它们都是为了确保我们在几家供应商那里获得未来所需的备用产能。所以不应该过分解读这些大致相同的数字，因为我们正在提高供应量。所有这些都有不同的时间跨度，因为我们有时不得不提前很长时间购买东西或为我们建立产能。Melius Research分析师Ben Reitzes：好的，谢谢。恭喜取得了如此亮眼的成绩。Colette，我想谈谈你对于毛利率的看法，它们回到了75%左右的水平，这是因为新产品中HBM内存含量吗？您认为还有其他原因吗？非常感谢。Colette Kress：是的，感谢您的问题。正如我们在开场白中强调的，我们第四季度的业绩和第一季度的展望都比较特殊。这两个季度的毛利率也都是独特的，因为它们都受益于供应链中的组件成本，这种益处覆盖了我们的计算和网络产品，以及制造过程的多个阶段。展望未来，我们预测本财年的毛利率将回归到75%左右的水平，回到我们在第四季度和第一季度峰值之前的水平。所以真正驱动未来全年的毛利率的是我们产品组合，这将是最重要的驱动因素。这些就是驱动毛利率的主要因素。Cantra Fitzgerald分析师CJ Muse：下午好，Jason，GPU算力在过去十年提升了100万倍，面对这种飞速提升，英伟达客户如何看待他们今天所做的英伟达投资的长期可用性。今天用于训练的系统未来是否还可以用于推理。你认为这会如何发展？黄仁勋：谢谢你的问题。是的，真正酷的地方在于，我们能够极大地提升性能，那是因为我们的平台有两大特点：一是加速的能力，二是可编程性。英伟达是唯一一个从最初就始终如一的架构，从最开始的卷积神经网络，Alex Krizhevsky、Ilya Sutskever和Geoffrey Hinton首次提出的AlexNet，到RNN、LSTM、RLS，再到Transformers，比如Vision Transformers、Multi-modality Transformers 等，每一个AI的变种模型，我们都能支持它们，优化我们的堆栈，并将其部署到我们安装的用户设备基础上。这真的是最了不起的地方。一方面，我们可以发明新的架构和技术，像我们的Tensor Core(张量核心)，张量核心转换引擎，改进数据格式和处理结构，就像在Tensor Core中所做的工作那样。同时，我们也支持原有的安装基础。因此，我们的所有新软件算法创新，以及行业的所有新模型创新，都可以在一个基础上运行。另一方面，当我们看到革命性的东西，例如转换器，我们可以创建全新的东西，像Hopper转换引擎，并在未来进行应用。因此，我们同时拥有将软件引入安装基础并不断改进的能力，因此随着时间的推移，我们的客户安装基础随着我们的新软件而丰富。另一方面，新技术创造了革命性的能力。如果未来一代在LLM上出现突破，不要感到惊讶。这些突破，其中一些是软件方面的，因为它们运行在CUDA平台上，提供给安装基础。所以我们带着所有人一起前进。一方面，我们取得巨大突破;另一方面，我们支持原有基础。Piper Sandler分析师Harsh Kumar：我想谈谈英伟达的软件业务，很高兴听到它的营收超过10亿美元。但我希望，Jensen或Collatif，帮助我们稍微拆解一下，以便我们更好地了解该业务的增长源。黄仁勋：让我退后一步解释，英伟达在软件中非常成功的根本原因。首先，你知道，加速计算真正在云端蓬勃发展。CSP有非常大的工程团队， 我们与他们合作的方式允许他们运营和管理自己的业务。。如果有任何问题，我们会派出大型团队为他们服务。他们的工程团队直接与我们的工程团队对接，改进、修复、维护、修复复杂的加速计算软件栈。加速计算和通用计算截然不同，并不是从C++这样的程序开始，编译后在所有CPU上运行。从数据处理、结构化数据与所有图像、文本、PDF这样的非结构化数据，到经典机器学习、计算机视觉、语音、大语言模型，再到所有推荐系统，每个领域都需要不同的软件栈。这就是为什么英伟达有数百个软件库的原因。没有软件就无法开拓新市场，无法启用新的应用。软件对加速计算来说是基础。如您所知，加速计算与通用计算非常不同。你不是从C++这样的程序开始的。你编译它，一切都在你的所有CPU上运行。每个领域所需的软件堆栈从数据处理、SQL数据库、结构数据与所有图像、文本和PDF（非结构化）到经典机器学习、计算机视觉、语音、两个大型语言模型、所有推荐系统，所有这些都需要不同的软件堆栈。这就是英伟达拥有数百个库的原因。如果你没有软件，你就无法打开新市场。如果您没有软件，则无法打开和启用新应用程序。软件对于加速计算至关重要。这是加速计算和通用计算之间的根本区别，大多数人花了很长时间才理解，现在人们明白，软件在我们与CSP合作的方式中非常关键。这非常简单，我们的大型团队正在与他们的大型团队合作。然而，现在生成式AI使每个企业和企业软件公司都能拥抱加速计算，拥抱加速计算现在是必需的，仅仅依靠通用计算提高处理量已不再可行。所有这些企业软件公司和企业公司都没有大型工程团队来维护和优化他们的软件堆栈，以在全球所有云和私有云以及本地运行。因此，我们将对他们所有的软件堆栈进行管理、优化、修补、调整，优化安装基础。我们将它们容器化到我们的堆栈中，我们称之为英伟达AIEnterprise。我们将其推向市场的方式是将英伟达AIEnterprise视为运行时，就像操作系统一样。这是一个人工智能操作系统。我们每年对每个GPU收取4500美元。我的猜测是，世界上的每一家企业，每一家在所有云和私有云中部署软件的软件企业公司。首先，我们将在英伟达AI企业上运行，尤其是，你知道，显然是为了我们的GPU。因此，随着时间的推移，这可能会成为一项非常重要的业务。我们有一个很好的开始。Collette提到它已经以10亿美元的速度增长，我们才刚刚开始。黄仁勋闭会总结：计算机行业正在同时向两个方向转变 (加速计算与生成式 AI)。价值数万亿美元的数据中心安装基础正在从通用计算转向加速计算。每个数据中心都将得到加速，使世界能够在提高处理量来满足计算需求的同时，管理成本和能源。英伟达实现了令人难以置信的加速，它实现了一种全新的计算范式，即生成式 AI，其中软件可以学习、理解和生成从人类语言到生物结构和 3D 世界的任何信息。我们现在正处于一个新兴行业的开端，专用AI数据中心处理大量原始数据以将其提炼成数字智能，就像上一场工业革命的交流发电厂。英伟达AI超级计算机实际上是这场工业革命的AI生成工厂。每个公司和每个行业从根本上来说都是建立在其专有的商业智能之上，在未来，他们专有的生成式AI启动了一个全新的投资周期，以构建下一个万亿美元的AI生成工厂基础设施。我们相信，这两大趋势将推动未来 5 年内使全球数据中心基础设施安装量翻一番，每年创造数千亿美元的市场机会。这种新的人工智能基础设施将开辟一个今天不可能实现的全新应用世界。我们与超大规模云提供商和消费者互联网公司一起开启了人工智能之旅。现在，从汽车、医疗保健、金融服务到工业电信、媒体和娱乐，每个行业都参与其中。英伟达的全栈计算平台具有特定行业的应用框架以及庞大的开发者和合作伙伴生态系统，为我们提供了速度、规模和影响力，帮助每个公司、每个行业的公司成为人工智能公司。在下个月于圣何塞举行的GTC上，我们有很多东西要与您分享，所以请务必加入我们。我们期待向您介绍下季度的最新进展。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1094,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":836168264,"gmtCreate":1629465845158,"gmtModify":1629465845158,"author":{"id":"3576640463093459","authorId":"3576640463093459","name":"罗素London","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9969255f02bcdd16ca31ef33facd48df","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3576640463093459","authorIdStr":"3576640463093459"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看","listText":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看","text":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/836168264","repostId":"1180992187","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1180992187","pubTimestamp":1629465611,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1180992187?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-08-20 21:20","market":"sh","language":"zh","title":"经济日报评互联网强监管：是阵痛也是机遇！","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1180992187","media":"经济日报","summary":"加强科技互联网领域监管成为当前关注热点。","content":"<p>文／王轶辰</p>\n<p>加强科技互联网领域监管成为当前关注热点。今年以来，有关部门密集出台一系列新监管措施，尤其是在互联网、校外培训整顿方面下了“猛药”。不断收紧的监管政策，让对市场高度敏感的海外资本嗅出了不同的味道。一些机构认为，监管政策给投资回报带来了较大不确定性，决定暂时规避对相关企业的投资；另一些机构则坚定看好中国的发展，表示监管背后孕育着新机会，并继续加码投资。</p>\n<p>监管政策引发资本市场的短期波动，是为这个领域的健康发展护航。数字经济诞生以来，我国始终支持和鼓励科技互联网企业创新发展、增强国际竞争力。但随着市场集中度的不断提升，一些互联网平台经济逐步演变成了“垄断经济”，不仅危害消费者权益，还会抑制企业创新，推高市场成本，更严重者会带来系统性风险，威胁国家安全。监管旨在规范行业发展，维护公平合理的市场竞争，是正常的市场环境治理，并非针对资本或特定行业、企业。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/83508a999e88f959cc78b56e8885c204\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"310\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>放眼全球，反垄断是国际惯例。从1890年全球诞生第一部反垄断法《反托拉斯法》开始，每隔一段时间，反垄断就会被各国政府拉到历史的舞台前。美国烟草、美孚石油、电话电报公司等巨头都没能逃脱被拆分的宿命，不过许多拆分业务后的巨头并没有因此衰落，反而推动了大批创新企业的崛起。</p>\n<p>监管，是为了让行业更有活力地前行。今年的《政府工作报告》提出：“国家支持平台企业创新发展、增强国际竞争力，同时要依法规范发展，健全数字规则。”市场经济不是“脱缰的野马”，过去宽松的环境是为了鼓励行业创新发展，如今加强市场监管更是为了鼓励行业高质量发展。反垄断、反不正当竞争，是完善社会主义市场经济体制、推动高质量发展的内在要求。公平竞争是市场经济的核心，只有竞争环境公平，才能实现资源有效配置和企业优胜劣汰。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/03aa092f486f8cb7a16eee0619e7dec0\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"310\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>强监管下，“阵痛”不可避免，但更多是机遇。反垄断是一块“试金石”，真正拥有核心竞争力，企业文化向善，不断创造经济和社会双重价值的企业，会不断走向欣欣向荣。对于科技互联网企业而言，打铁还要自身硬，要跳出流量红海之争，积极寻求新的发展方式，不断提升创新研发能力。同时，主动承担更多社会责任，推动可持续社会价值创新。</p>\n<p>风物长宜放眼量。我国支持健全资本市场、弘扬企业家精神和坚持对外开放的信心不会动摇。加强对平台经济的监管，恰恰表明中国大力发展数字经济的决心。应该看到，我国数字经济快速增长的趋势不会改变，我国数字经济引领全球发展的势头也同样不会改变。</p>","source":"lsy1597656426531","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>经济日报评互联网强监管：是阵痛也是机遇！</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; 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width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n经济日报评互联网强监管：是阵痛也是机遇！\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-08-20 21:20 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/tJZdv1aXk6h-_FzkTWTP9g><strong>经济日报</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>文／王轶辰\n加强科技互联网领域监管成为当前关注热点。今年以来，有关部门密集出台一系列新监管措施，尤其是在互联网、校外培训整顿方面下了“猛药”。不断收紧的监管政策，让对市场高度敏感的海外资本嗅出了不同的味道。一些机构认为，监管政策给投资回报带来了较大不确定性，决定暂时规避对相关企业的投资；另一些机构则坚定看好中国的发展，表示监管背后孕育着新机会，并继续加码投资。\n监管政策引发资本市场的短期波动，是为...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/tJZdv1aXk6h-_FzkTWTP9g\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/03aa092f486f8cb7a16eee0619e7dec0","relate_stocks":{"QNETCN":"纳斯达克中美互联网老虎指数"},"source_url":"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/tJZdv1aXk6h-_FzkTWTP9g","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1180992187","content_text":"文／王轶辰\n加强科技互联网领域监管成为当前关注热点。今年以来，有关部门密集出台一系列新监管措施，尤其是在互联网、校外培训整顿方面下了“猛药”。不断收紧的监管政策，让对市场高度敏感的海外资本嗅出了不同的味道。一些机构认为，监管政策给投资回报带来了较大不确定性，决定暂时规避对相关企业的投资；另一些机构则坚定看好中国的发展，表示监管背后孕育着新机会，并继续加码投资。\n监管政策引发资本市场的短期波动，是为这个领域的健康发展护航。数字经济诞生以来，我国始终支持和鼓励科技互联网企业创新发展、增强国际竞争力。但随着市场集中度的不断提升，一些互联网平台经济逐步演变成了“垄断经济”，不仅危害消费者权益，还会抑制企业创新，推高市场成本，更严重者会带来系统性风险，威胁国家安全。监管旨在规范行业发展，维护公平合理的市场竞争，是正常的市场环境治理，并非针对资本或特定行业、企业。\n\n放眼全球，反垄断是国际惯例。从1890年全球诞生第一部反垄断法《反托拉斯法》开始，每隔一段时间，反垄断就会被各国政府拉到历史的舞台前。美国烟草、美孚石油、电话电报公司等巨头都没能逃脱被拆分的宿命，不过许多拆分业务后的巨头并没有因此衰落，反而推动了大批创新企业的崛起。\n监管，是为了让行业更有活力地前行。今年的《政府工作报告》提出：“国家支持平台企业创新发展、增强国际竞争力，同时要依法规范发展，健全数字规则。”市场经济不是“脱缰的野马”，过去宽松的环境是为了鼓励行业创新发展，如今加强市场监管更是为了鼓励行业高质量发展。反垄断、反不正当竞争，是完善社会主义市场经济体制、推动高质量发展的内在要求。公平竞争是市场经济的核心，只有竞争环境公平，才能实现资源有效配置和企业优胜劣汰。\n\n强监管下，“阵痛”不可避免，但更多是机遇。反垄断是一块“试金石”，真正拥有核心竞争力，企业文化向善，不断创造经济和社会双重价值的企业，会不断走向欣欣向荣。对于科技互联网企业而言，打铁还要自身硬，要跳出流量红海之争，积极寻求新的发展方式，不断提升创新研发能力。同时，主动承担更多社会责任，推动可持续社会价值创新。\n风物长宜放眼量。我国支持健全资本市场、弘扬企业家精神和坚持对外开放的信心不会动摇。加强对平台经济的监管，恰恰表明中国大力发展数字经济的决心。应该看到，我国数字经济快速增长的趋势不会改变，我国数字经济引领全球发展的势头也同样不会改变。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2136,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":896942070,"gmtCreate":1628553562990,"gmtModify":1628553562990,"author":{"id":"3576640463093459","authorId":"3576640463093459","name":"罗素London","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9969255f02bcdd16ca31ef33facd48df","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3576640463093459","authorIdStr":"3576640463093459"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看","listText":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看","text":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/896942070","repostId":"898419556","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":898419556,"gmtCreate":1628516904575,"gmtModify":1708211772179,"author":{"id":"39105730803552","authorId":"39105730803552","name":"格隆汇","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8774dfe20eceb38c9645128bb6e60684","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"39105730803552","authorIdStr":"39105730803552"},"themes":[],"title":"高瓴诠释新赛道，最新建仓软件小龙头","htmlText":"在A股，高瓴主要投资的赛道：消费、新能源、高端制造、科技、医药。近五年高瓴在A股可以分为三个阶段：2020年前：以消费、医药领域为主，代表个股分别是：五粮液、凯莱英、百济神州、韩森制药。2020年：以新能源为主，代表个股分别是：蔚来汽车、恩捷股份、宁德时代、隆基股份、阳光电源。2021年：以高端制造、TMT为主，大手笔买入”小西门子“汇川技术。而且在今年，自身重新诠释的TMT的新定义：硬科技！在2021世界人工智能大会上，高瓴创始人张磊参与了战略专家咨询委员会的讨论，提到的高瓴人工智能项目包括深度学习框架一流科技，做向量搜索的开源框架Zilliz、AI算力资源池化软件趋动科技，还有AI芯片企业地平线和壁仞科技。高瓴判断，“感知智能已向更高阶的决策智能跃迁、大量跨学科突破在被实现”。在今年6月，高瓴投了机器人法奥，激光雷达公司禾赛科技（和美团小米共投了3亿美金）；5月领投新能源网络星星充电桩、DPU芯片星云智联。其次还有极飞科技、毫末智行、国仪量子、维格表等分属于无人机、自动驾驶、量子精密测量与量子计算、低代码领域。据不完全统计，高瓴上半年在硬科技领域的出手超过80起。作为擅长于生态式投资的顶级机构，高瓴这次的硬科技领域，显然也在复制在医疗领域的布局那种打法。回到上市公司这边，在中报期阶段，高瓴的动作要引起市场重视。在上周末，高瓴低调抄底一个细分小龙头公司。8月8日，A股上市公司超图软件发布半年度报告：2021年1月1日-2021年6月30日，公司实现营业收入6.24亿元，同比增长19.25%，净利润5544.81万元，同比增长33.13%，基本每股收益为0.12元。让人惊喜的是，高瓴的人民币基金礼仁卓越长青买入了420万股超图软件，位列第九大流通股股东，按照今日的收盘价28.16元计算，高瓴的持仓市值在1.18亿元。值得一提的是，在7月份超图软件刚刚完成定增，获配的机构财通","listText":"在A股，高瓴主要投资的赛道：消费、新能源、高端制造、科技、医药。近五年高瓴在A股可以分为三个阶段：2020年前：以消费、医药领域为主，代表个股分别是：五粮液、凯莱英、百济神州、韩森制药。2020年：以新能源为主，代表个股分别是：蔚来汽车、恩捷股份、宁德时代、隆基股份、阳光电源。2021年：以高端制造、TMT为主，大手笔买入”小西门子“汇川技术。而且在今年，自身重新诠释的TMT的新定义：硬科技！在2021世界人工智能大会上，高瓴创始人张磊参与了战略专家咨询委员会的讨论，提到的高瓴人工智能项目包括深度学习框架一流科技，做向量搜索的开源框架Zilliz、AI算力资源池化软件趋动科技，还有AI芯片企业地平线和壁仞科技。高瓴判断，“感知智能已向更高阶的决策智能跃迁、大量跨学科突破在被实现”。在今年6月，高瓴投了机器人法奥，激光雷达公司禾赛科技（和美团小米共投了3亿美金）；5月领投新能源网络星星充电桩、DPU芯片星云智联。其次还有极飞科技、毫末智行、国仪量子、维格表等分属于无人机、自动驾驶、量子精密测量与量子计算、低代码领域。据不完全统计，高瓴上半年在硬科技领域的出手超过80起。作为擅长于生态式投资的顶级机构，高瓴这次的硬科技领域，显然也在复制在医疗领域的布局那种打法。回到上市公司这边，在中报期阶段，高瓴的动作要引起市场重视。在上周末，高瓴低调抄底一个细分小龙头公司。8月8日，A股上市公司超图软件发布半年度报告：2021年1月1日-2021年6月30日，公司实现营业收入6.24亿元，同比增长19.25%，净利润5544.81万元，同比增长33.13%，基本每股收益为0.12元。让人惊喜的是，高瓴的人民币基金礼仁卓越长青买入了420万股超图软件，位列第九大流通股股东，按照今日的收盘价28.16元计算，高瓴的持仓市值在1.18亿元。值得一提的是，在7月份超图软件刚刚完成定增，获配的机构财通","text":"在A股，高瓴主要投资的赛道：消费、新能源、高端制造、科技、医药。近五年高瓴在A股可以分为三个阶段：2020年前：以消费、医药领域为主，代表个股分别是：五粮液、凯莱英、百济神州、韩森制药。2020年：以新能源为主，代表个股分别是：蔚来汽车、恩捷股份、宁德时代、隆基股份、阳光电源。2021年：以高端制造、TMT为主，大手笔买入”小西门子“汇川技术。而且在今年，自身重新诠释的TMT的新定义：硬科技！在2021世界人工智能大会上，高瓴创始人张磊参与了战略专家咨询委员会的讨论，提到的高瓴人工智能项目包括深度学习框架一流科技，做向量搜索的开源框架Zilliz、AI算力资源池化软件趋动科技，还有AI芯片企业地平线和壁仞科技。高瓴判断，“感知智能已向更高阶的决策智能跃迁、大量跨学科突破在被实现”。在今年6月，高瓴投了机器人法奥，激光雷达公司禾赛科技（和美团小米共投了3亿美金）；5月领投新能源网络星星充电桩、DPU芯片星云智联。其次还有极飞科技、毫末智行、国仪量子、维格表等分属于无人机、自动驾驶、量子精密测量与量子计算、低代码领域。据不完全统计，高瓴上半年在硬科技领域的出手超过80起。作为擅长于生态式投资的顶级机构，高瓴这次的硬科技领域，显然也在复制在医疗领域的布局那种打法。回到上市公司这边，在中报期阶段，高瓴的动作要引起市场重视。在上周末，高瓴低调抄底一个细分小龙头公司。8月8日，A股上市公司超图软件发布半年度报告：2021年1月1日-2021年6月30日，公司实现营业收入6.24亿元，同比增长19.25%，净利润5544.81万元，同比增长33.13%，基本每股收益为0.12元。让人惊喜的是，高瓴的人民币基金礼仁卓越长青买入了420万股超图软件，位列第九大流通股股东，按照今日的收盘价28.16元计算，高瓴的持仓市值在1.18亿元。值得一提的是，在7月份超图软件刚刚完成定增，获配的机构财通","images":[{"img":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href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PFE\">$辉瑞(PFE)$</a>undervalued","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PFE\">$辉瑞(PFE)$</a>undervalued","text":"$辉瑞(PFE)$undervalued","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/807368947","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2244,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":804112052,"gmtCreate":1627945251476,"gmtModify":1627945251476,"author":{"id":"3576640463093459","authorId":"3576640463093459","name":"罗素London","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9969255f02bcdd16ca31ef33facd48df","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3576640463093459","authorIdStr":"3576640463093459"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看","listText":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看","text":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/804112052","repostId":"1138385946","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1138385946","pubTimestamp":1627904909,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1138385946?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-08-02 19:48","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"从克林顿时代说起：互联网泡沫的缘起、疯狂与破灭","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1138385946","media":"张弢看世界","summary":"不要成为真正相信泡沫或者增长可以永远持续而最后一个买入的人。","content":"<p>作者：张弢</p>\n<p>我记得我有次去国内互联网公司调研的时候碰到一个50多岁的美国基金经理，和他聊了下，哪怕在FAANG支配的美股，他也只是买一些盈利的互联网公司，类似谷歌脸书这样，哪怕神如亚马逊这样的股票，他也从来没有买过，<b>其实原因很简单，他是经历过2000年互联网泡沫伤痛的人，或者永远无法理解先亏损后盈利的互联网模式。</b></p>\n<p>有人说，一个基金经理一定会在自己职业生涯中经历好几次的危机，而为什么大部分美国对冲基金都超不过20年，因为过去20年大部分要迈过两个坎，一个是2000年互联网泡沫，一个是2008年金融危机，对于金融危机的书和电影有很多，著名的包括The Big Short, Too Big to Fail等等，<b>但是对于互联网泡沫，其实这类作品很少，主要还是因为它是特定行业的泡沫，破灭之后并没有对于整个全球金融和经济产生巨大的影响，而且互联网后来又开始辉煌，这似乎是一个小插曲。</b>但无疑互联网泡沫破灭的故事也足够精彩，也许互联网后来还是欣欣向荣，但那些因为泡沫破灭而关门的对冲基金们也许就被人所遗忘成为真正的输家。</p>\n<p>最近看了一些书和文章做了点研究，<b>作为一个总结和纪念写点啥，毕竟我们如果还在这一行，一定与泡沫相伴或者共舞，希望能够成为泡沫里的赢家而不是输家。</b></p>\n<p><b>互联网行业爆发：美国90年代黄金时期的最好注脚</b></p>\n<p>冷战结束之后，美国成为了全球唯一超级大国，日本在房地产泡沫（也是个泡沫）破灭之后陷入了困境，世界面临巨变。克林顿竞选台词<b>那个著名的 “笨蛋，问题是经济！” 让他在1992年击败了时任总统老布什</b>，并且结束了共和党12年的执政当选为美国第42任总统，美国90年代的黄金年代拉开了序幕。</p>\n<p>克林顿执政时期兑现了他的竞选承诺，加上天时地利人和，上个世纪90年代是美国经济继20世纪60年代之后有一个高峰，<b>克林顿执政时期美国GDP平均增速为4.6%，失业率从80年代的超过7%降低到5%左右，通胀也从20世纪80年代的平均5.1%降低到平均2.6%，那个时期被人成为“令人惊艳的十年”（The Fabulous Decade）</b>。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9e745eabc01a6647663ba9f4d727092b\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"388\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>而在科技行业，<b>1993年克林顿也公布了“行动议程”，建立美国国家信息基础设施（National Information Infrastructure）的构想，</b>熟悉的顶层设计，熟悉的政策支持，这多么像几十年后的今天正在发生的故事。</p>\n<p>再加上IBM 和Dell等个人电脑公司的成功，个人电脑开始在大众中普及，销售量大涨，随着计算机的普及，<b>接入互联网的个人计算机的数量从1990年的31万台增加到了2000年的4323万台，10年之间增加了130多倍，复合增长超过60%，</b>又是个多么惊人而熟悉的数字，似乎这个数字就代表这买入永远都不会错误。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/916155fbed3707499dc9384733188e43\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"354\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p><b>配套基础设施的建立，政策的支持，强劲的需求，互联网泡沫的大幕就在这些熟悉的逻辑中徐徐拉开。</b></p>\n<p><b>互联网女皇和Netscape</b></p>\n<p>任何一个行业都有一个代表性的人物和一家代表性的公司，类似新能源汽车一定就是Elon Musk和特斯拉，移动互联网是乔布斯和苹果，而90年代互联网也不例外，但其实<b>代表公司并不是IBM和微软，而是互联网的入口——浏览器公司Netscape（网景公司）。</b></p>\n<p>同时，互联网泡沫时代的标志人物除了类似Bezos这样的创业者以外，<b>还有一个重要的人物就是Morgan Stanley的互联网分析师Mary Meeker，这个在互联网泡沫巅峰时期被誉为和格林斯潘、沃伦巴菲特一样可以左右华尔街的女人，是当之无愧的“The Queen of .Net”，</b>而让她一战成名的代表作当然就是对Netscape的强烈推荐。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3fed7803678e200af348447fb12500f1\" tg-width=\"461\" tg-height=\"397\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>Mary在1981年毕业于DePauw大学的心理系，然后加入美林成为一个股票经纪人，在1986年康奈尔大学完成MBA之后加入所罗门兄弟公司成为一名科技行业分析师，当时她的理想实际是成为一名基金经理。但是命运可能知道她更适合做卖方，她于1991年加入Morgan Stanley成为科技行业的分析师，开始了辉煌的职业生涯。</p>\n<p>1995年在加入Morgan Stanley 4年之后，她参与了Morgan Stanley的项目——浏览器Netscape的IPO，这是改变她一生的机会，<b>她也抓住了，并且发布了一篇关于Netscape 300页的覆盖报告，这个300页的报告在当时互联网并没有普及的90年代可想有多么震撼，也理所当然成为所有投资人研究互联网的圣经。</b></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1d8330a01398b3dbdd1df47bc91533c3\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"140\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p><b>她的投资逻辑现在看无非是Netscape是互联网的入口，随着个人电脑的普及，互联网会进入千家万户，而Netscape可以通过收取广告费而盈利，市场空间巨大。多么朴素而且现在看起来都无比正确的逻辑啊！</b></p>\n<p>而<b>Netscape也不负众望，在上市首日大涨86%，盘中一度大涨超过154%，在公司成立还不到1年半之后，公司创始人Jim Clark的身家就达到了超过5亿美金</b>，这个标志着互联网入口的浏览器公司就类似后来新能源汽车把特斯拉看作入口的解读一样，无法不让人看好。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d5497d3b16b27d69747969fe2b687337\" tg-width=\"360\" tg-height=\"225\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>而因为Netscape的成功，Mary也在华尔街声名鹊起，加上大量的互联网公司的IPO，Mary成为了真正的女皇，在监管不那么严格的年代她会帮助投行甄别项目，互联网非上市公司也因此希望得到她的垂青，从而能够加入投行的上市计划，而因为互联网股票的节节高升，<b>她就像是点石成金，所有她推荐的股票都在疯狂的上涨中。</b></p>\n<p>而进一步巩固她地位的是在1997年1月，Deutsche Morgan的分析师Bill Gurley发布了Netscape的看空报告，提示股价狂飙的Netscape的风险并将Netscape下调到中性评级，当天Netscape的股价大跌20%，而Mary在两天之后发出回应，将Netscape从Buy（买入）上调到Strong Buy（强力买入）评级，<b>并且宣称“如果这个公司（Netscape）死了，那就是Bill Gurley的错”（If this company dies, it’s Bill Gurley's fault），Netscape股价几天之后就收复失地。</b></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/85fcdd32f0f6efc6a8d6a9142d51e040\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"480\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>在打爆空头Bill之后，似乎一切都无法阻挡Mary和Netscape，<b>最巅峰时候，有26个互联网分析师为Mary工作，而她主要覆盖30个公司，</b>尽管有如此庞大的团队，所有的基金经理只想见Mary一个人，因为她是那个互联网的女皇，甚至她去一些投资会议，会有人发出“看，那就是Mary”的感慨，<b>她已经不是一个分析师，而是一个明星，真正可以左右华尔街的人。</b></p>\n<p><b>疯狂的市场到泡沫破灭</b></p>\n<p>除了互联网女皇，当然最开心的是硅谷的创业公司们，在硅谷最繁荣的时间，串联起两旁科技公司的101公路经常大堵车。出门吃饭排一两个小时的队，午饭时间找不到停车位，过来出差定不到旅馆，每天都有大量的百万富翁诞生，所有的毕业生都希望创立一家互联网公司实现财务自由的梦想。</p>\n<p>而在泡沫发展过程中，风险资本投资在互联网也是极速狂飙，<b>风险投资额从1990年的80亿美金增长到2000年的1000亿美金，风险投资在1999年55%项目是互联网项目，1999年有超过150个互联网IPO项目，</b>可谓是集体的狂欢。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3e5481022453880d077f4a7bf0897d06\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"379\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>如果关注描述当时历史的书，就可以发现在投资界如果你不投互联网公司，你就会被时代洪流抛弃，在互联网泡沫时期，如eBay这样的公司涨幅超过30倍，你不投如何能跑赢同行。在《对冲基金风雨录》也写过这样的细节，<b>在投资沙龙上，没有买互联网公司的基金经理面对同行的奚落和嘲讽，也面对客户的质疑和巨大的赎回压力，甚至巴菲特也在当时被为“过时的人”。</b></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5645d1d043f967e134ea3bf9d1971d7e\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"282\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>而实际上，在过程中，已经看到了泡沫破灭的阴影，2000年3月10日，科技股价走上顶峰，也是当年纳斯达克的历史最高峰。<b>一家对冲基金在美国《巴伦周刊》中发表了一篇Burning Up的文章，它调研了207家互联网公司，预估51家网络公司现金流面临枯竭，以当时的烧钱速度计算，几乎所有的公司都撑不过12个月</b>，亚马逊也不例外，而几乎同时，股市开始在毫无征兆中滑落，这或许也说明当时烧钱速度已经远远超过用户增长的速度和收入的增长。</p>\n<p><b>随后就是雪崩，在2000年3月10日触顶之后到2001年底部，Nasdaq指数跌幅超过70%。</b></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/243dd9552f67ae1a2605d1b0f553b5c4\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"395\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p><b>泡沫破灭之后：赢家和输家</b></p>\n<p>互联网泡沫之后，对于互联网行业来说，大量的裁员和投资暂停是不可避免的，就拿国内当时的三大门户和阿里来说，都碰到了投资缩减的困境和生存压力，很多IT从业人员从之前手拿四五份offer到担心失业。泡沫破灭之后，从2000年到2002年，<b>有差不多1000家互联网公司倒闭，超过3800家被兼并，绝大部分当时的网红公司都销声匿迹。与此相对应的，大量的重仓互联网的对冲基金在互联网泡沫破灭之后倒闭，他们大部分都被历史遗忘，成为真正的输家。</b></p>\n<p>值得一提的是，泡沫破灭之后也出现了非常戏剧化的局面，那就是出现了看空亚马逊的大空头雷曼兄弟的印度裔分析师Ravi Suria，他连发数篇报告认为亚马逊会破产，此情此景是否很像特斯拉在2019年的时候Morgan Stanley汽车分析师的10美金悲观目标价，当然Morgan Stanley还是很聪明的留了余地，只是将特斯拉悲观目标价下调，而Ravi则是一直看空，而2002年亚马逊超预期的业绩也直接打爆Ravi标志着互联网股票的触底，<b>Ravi之后也离开卖方，现在是对冲基金Valmiki Capital的投资总监，他和亚马逊也许都还算是泡沫后的赢家。</b></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e7e94edc17afefbefd17babf746a390d\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"336\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>互联网女皇Mary则在亚马逊等股票大跌80%之后仍然坚持自己的OW（超配）评级，并且解释说人们并不理解互联网行业长期逻辑，虽然受到巨大非议，仍然坚持自己的看法，不过她最看好的公司，除了Netscape以外，Amazon，eBay和Yahoo都活了下来，而且Mary在2004年因为参与Google的IPO再次让她重获声名。2010年已是Managing Director（董事总经理）的Mary离开Morgan Stanley，开始成为VC基金Kleiner Perkins的合伙人继续互联网投资事业，后来她投资了DocuSign和Square这样的牛股，同时她也还是每年发布互联网的趋势报告继续以“互联网女皇”被人们所知。<b>从历史来看，后面互联网行业也兑现了她的假设，她应该算是互联网泡沫里面的赢家，虽然不至于如当年那么呼风唤雨，但仍然继续事业的成功。</b></p>\n<p>她的对手Bill Gurley虽然看空了Netscape，但仍然是互联网投资的先锋并且参与了亚马逊的IPO，离开卖方之后开始了投资生涯，是VC Hummer&nbsp;Winlad的合伙人，投资了<b>包括Uber并成为公司董事，他的投资业绩似乎比Mary还要成功。</b></p>\n<p>当然这次泡沫之后，<b>唯一没有什么改变的就是全程没有参与的沃伦巴菲特</b>，巴菲特还是那个喝着可乐的快乐老头，仍然可以左右整个华尔街，并没有因为错过互联网而“过时”。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f53918f37649b1a6b887a6569322b1be\" tg-width=\"340\" tg-height=\"300\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p><b>一点启示</b></p>\n<p>其实经过这个泡沫，我觉得有几点可以肯定：</p>\n<ol>\n <li><p><b>泡沫绝对有它诞生的理由甚至基本面的支撑：</b>美国强劲的经济，PC的普及和政策的支持都是带来整个泡沫的温床，没有什么泡沫是无厘头的幻想，大部分有强劲的基本面支撑；</p></li>\n <li><p><b>互联网泡沫逻辑长期看并没有错：</b>从后来人类历史和互联网发展来看，互联网逻辑都兑现了，甚至远远超过预期，只是我们太领先于行业的发展，类似于风筝，飞的太高太快，线就会断，所以<b>不要认为行业前景正确行业高速增长泡沫就肯定能被消化而不会破灭。</b>当然，<b>泡沫破灭也不代表这个行业完全被证伪，如果在2001年因为泡沫破灭转行的人，可能多少会有点遗憾；</b></p></li>\n <li><p><b>泡沫的长度和幅度永远无法预测：</b>在1997年就有分析师唱空Netscape，如果后面来看其实是对的，但事实证明这个实在太早，反而大错特错，继续巩固了互联网女神Mary的江湖地位，所以不要去轻易猜顶，泡沫幅度也许远远超过想象，<b>那家在2000年发布调研报告做空互联网的对冲基金也许只是运气最好的那个而已；</b></p></li>\n <li><p><b>泡沫破灭总是不经意间发生的：</b>虽然可以找到很多所谓的原因，证明泡沫的破灭即将到来，但在大跌当天你甚至找不到任何具体事件，泡沫就突然破灭了，而泡沫破灭速度之快如同上涨时候一样非常超预期，而回头看才发现这些公司的财报是如此的脆弱，当时为什么会相信这些公司可以值这么多钱，<b>所以留一份醉的同时，一定要留一份清醒。</b></p></li>\n</ol>\n<p>总之，我们可以找到太多太多类似的故事，从日本房地产泡沫，90年代台湾股市泡沫，到97年的东南亚金融危机到互联网泡沫以及08年金融危机。所以资本市场里泡沫是一定的，现在的比特币、软件SaaS、新能源汽车也许也是或多或少的泡沫，但他们也确实是发展方向，所以泡沫并非毒药，</p>\n<p><b>但如果无法理解这些泡沫，要么我们和巴菲特一样有定力完全不管，要么我们也不得不参与其中，只是永远要记住，不要成为真正相信泡沫或者增长可以永远持续而最后一个买入的人，毕竟就算你足够足够幸运，在2000年高位买入的是最后活下来并且发展最好的亚马逊，回到下跌前的高点也是7年之后的2007年了，你真的能够抗住不在这个过程中割肉吗？</b></p>","source":"lsy1627904959798","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>从克林顿时代说起：互联网泡沫的缘起、疯狂与破灭</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; 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margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n从克林顿时代说起：互联网泡沫的缘起、疯狂与破灭\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-08-02 19:48 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3636920><strong>张弢看世界</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>作者：张弢\n我记得我有次去国内互联网公司调研的时候碰到一个50多岁的美国基金经理，和他聊了下，哪怕在FAANG支配的美股，他也只是买一些盈利的互联网公司，类似谷歌脸书这样，哪怕神如亚马逊这样的股票，他也从来没有买过，其实原因很简单，他是经历过2000年互联网泡沫伤痛的人，或者永远无法理解先亏损后盈利的互联网模式。\n有人说，一个基金经理一定会在自己职业生涯中经历好几次的危机，而为什么大部分美国对冲...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3636920\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d5a09f6f7446acea393f3f94370520cf","relate_stocks":{"QNET":"纳斯达克互联网指数"},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3636920","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1138385946","content_text":"作者：张弢\n我记得我有次去国内互联网公司调研的时候碰到一个50多岁的美国基金经理，和他聊了下，哪怕在FAANG支配的美股，他也只是买一些盈利的互联网公司，类似谷歌脸书这样，哪怕神如亚马逊这样的股票，他也从来没有买过，其实原因很简单，他是经历过2000年互联网泡沫伤痛的人，或者永远无法理解先亏损后盈利的互联网模式。\n有人说，一个基金经理一定会在自己职业生涯中经历好几次的危机，而为什么大部分美国对冲基金都超不过20年，因为过去20年大部分要迈过两个坎，一个是2000年互联网泡沫，一个是2008年金融危机，对于金融危机的书和电影有很多，著名的包括The Big Short, Too Big to Fail等等，但是对于互联网泡沫，其实这类作品很少，主要还是因为它是特定行业的泡沫，破灭之后并没有对于整个全球金融和经济产生巨大的影响，而且互联网后来又开始辉煌，这似乎是一个小插曲。但无疑互联网泡沫破灭的故事也足够精彩，也许互联网后来还是欣欣向荣，但那些因为泡沫破灭而关门的对冲基金们也许就被人所遗忘成为真正的输家。\n最近看了一些书和文章做了点研究，作为一个总结和纪念写点啥，毕竟我们如果还在这一行，一定与泡沫相伴或者共舞，希望能够成为泡沫里的赢家而不是输家。\n互联网行业爆发：美国90年代黄金时期的最好注脚\n冷战结束之后，美国成为了全球唯一超级大国，日本在房地产泡沫（也是个泡沫）破灭之后陷入了困境，世界面临巨变。克林顿竞选台词那个著名的 “笨蛋，问题是经济！” 让他在1992年击败了时任总统老布什，并且结束了共和党12年的执政当选为美国第42任总统，美国90年代的黄金年代拉开了序幕。\n克林顿执政时期兑现了他的竞选承诺，加上天时地利人和，上个世纪90年代是美国经济继20世纪60年代之后有一个高峰，克林顿执政时期美国GDP平均增速为4.6%，失业率从80年代的超过7%降低到5%左右，通胀也从20世纪80年代的平均5.1%降低到平均2.6%，那个时期被人成为“令人惊艳的十年”（The Fabulous Decade）。\n\n而在科技行业，1993年克林顿也公布了“行动议程”，建立美国国家信息基础设施（National Information Infrastructure）的构想，熟悉的顶层设计，熟悉的政策支持，这多么像几十年后的今天正在发生的故事。\n再加上IBM 和Dell等个人电脑公司的成功，个人电脑开始在大众中普及，销售量大涨，随着计算机的普及，接入互联网的个人计算机的数量从1990年的31万台增加到了2000年的4323万台，10年之间增加了130多倍，复合增长超过60%，又是个多么惊人而熟悉的数字，似乎这个数字就代表这买入永远都不会错误。\n\n配套基础设施的建立，政策的支持，强劲的需求，互联网泡沫的大幕就在这些熟悉的逻辑中徐徐拉开。\n互联网女皇和Netscape\n任何一个行业都有一个代表性的人物和一家代表性的公司，类似新能源汽车一定就是Elon Musk和特斯拉，移动互联网是乔布斯和苹果，而90年代互联网也不例外，但其实代表公司并不是IBM和微软，而是互联网的入口——浏览器公司Netscape（网景公司）。\n同时，互联网泡沫时代的标志人物除了类似Bezos这样的创业者以外，还有一个重要的人物就是Morgan Stanley的互联网分析师Mary Meeker，这个在互联网泡沫巅峰时期被誉为和格林斯潘、沃伦巴菲特一样可以左右华尔街的女人，是当之无愧的“The Queen of .Net”，而让她一战成名的代表作当然就是对Netscape的强烈推荐。\n\nMary在1981年毕业于DePauw大学的心理系，然后加入美林成为一个股票经纪人，在1986年康奈尔大学完成MBA之后加入所罗门兄弟公司成为一名科技行业分析师，当时她的理想实际是成为一名基金经理。但是命运可能知道她更适合做卖方，她于1991年加入Morgan Stanley成为科技行业的分析师，开始了辉煌的职业生涯。\n1995年在加入Morgan Stanley 4年之后，她参与了Morgan Stanley的项目——浏览器Netscape的IPO，这是改变她一生的机会，她也抓住了，并且发布了一篇关于Netscape 300页的覆盖报告，这个300页的报告在当时互联网并没有普及的90年代可想有多么震撼，也理所当然成为所有投资人研究互联网的圣经。\n\n她的投资逻辑现在看无非是Netscape是互联网的入口，随着个人电脑的普及，互联网会进入千家万户，而Netscape可以通过收取广告费而盈利，市场空间巨大。多么朴素而且现在看起来都无比正确的逻辑啊！\n而Netscape也不负众望，在上市首日大涨86%，盘中一度大涨超过154%，在公司成立还不到1年半之后，公司创始人Jim Clark的身家就达到了超过5亿美金，这个标志着互联网入口的浏览器公司就类似后来新能源汽车把特斯拉看作入口的解读一样，无法不让人看好。\n\n而因为Netscape的成功，Mary也在华尔街声名鹊起，加上大量的互联网公司的IPO，Mary成为了真正的女皇，在监管不那么严格的年代她会帮助投行甄别项目，互联网非上市公司也因此希望得到她的垂青，从而能够加入投行的上市计划，而因为互联网股票的节节高升，她就像是点石成金，所有她推荐的股票都在疯狂的上涨中。\n而进一步巩固她地位的是在1997年1月，Deutsche Morgan的分析师Bill Gurley发布了Netscape的看空报告，提示股价狂飙的Netscape的风险并将Netscape下调到中性评级，当天Netscape的股价大跌20%，而Mary在两天之后发出回应，将Netscape从Buy（买入）上调到Strong Buy（强力买入）评级，并且宣称“如果这个公司（Netscape）死了，那就是Bill Gurley的错”（If this company dies, it’s Bill Gurley's fault），Netscape股价几天之后就收复失地。\n\n在打爆空头Bill之后，似乎一切都无法阻挡Mary和Netscape，最巅峰时候，有26个互联网分析师为Mary工作，而她主要覆盖30个公司，尽管有如此庞大的团队，所有的基金经理只想见Mary一个人，因为她是那个互联网的女皇，甚至她去一些投资会议，会有人发出“看，那就是Mary”的感慨，她已经不是一个分析师，而是一个明星，真正可以左右华尔街的人。\n疯狂的市场到泡沫破灭\n除了互联网女皇，当然最开心的是硅谷的创业公司们，在硅谷最繁荣的时间，串联起两旁科技公司的101公路经常大堵车。出门吃饭排一两个小时的队，午饭时间找不到停车位，过来出差定不到旅馆，每天都有大量的百万富翁诞生，所有的毕业生都希望创立一家互联网公司实现财务自由的梦想。\n而在泡沫发展过程中，风险资本投资在互联网也是极速狂飙，风险投资额从1990年的80亿美金增长到2000年的1000亿美金，风险投资在1999年55%项目是互联网项目，1999年有超过150个互联网IPO项目，可谓是集体的狂欢。\n\n如果关注描述当时历史的书，就可以发现在投资界如果你不投互联网公司，你就会被时代洪流抛弃，在互联网泡沫时期，如eBay这样的公司涨幅超过30倍，你不投如何能跑赢同行。在《对冲基金风雨录》也写过这样的细节，在投资沙龙上，没有买互联网公司的基金经理面对同行的奚落和嘲讽，也面对客户的质疑和巨大的赎回压力，甚至巴菲特也在当时被为“过时的人”。\n\n而实际上，在过程中，已经看到了泡沫破灭的阴影，2000年3月10日，科技股价走上顶峰，也是当年纳斯达克的历史最高峰。一家对冲基金在美国《巴伦周刊》中发表了一篇Burning Up的文章，它调研了207家互联网公司，预估51家网络公司现金流面临枯竭，以当时的烧钱速度计算，几乎所有的公司都撑不过12个月，亚马逊也不例外，而几乎同时，股市开始在毫无征兆中滑落，这或许也说明当时烧钱速度已经远远超过用户增长的速度和收入的增长。\n随后就是雪崩，在2000年3月10日触顶之后到2001年底部，Nasdaq指数跌幅超过70%。\n\n泡沫破灭之后：赢家和输家\n互联网泡沫之后，对于互联网行业来说，大量的裁员和投资暂停是不可避免的，就拿国内当时的三大门户和阿里来说，都碰到了投资缩减的困境和生存压力，很多IT从业人员从之前手拿四五份offer到担心失业。泡沫破灭之后，从2000年到2002年，有差不多1000家互联网公司倒闭，超过3800家被兼并，绝大部分当时的网红公司都销声匿迹。与此相对应的，大量的重仓互联网的对冲基金在互联网泡沫破灭之后倒闭，他们大部分都被历史遗忘，成为真正的输家。\n值得一提的是，泡沫破灭之后也出现了非常戏剧化的局面，那就是出现了看空亚马逊的大空头雷曼兄弟的印度裔分析师Ravi Suria，他连发数篇报告认为亚马逊会破产，此情此景是否很像特斯拉在2019年的时候Morgan Stanley汽车分析师的10美金悲观目标价，当然Morgan Stanley还是很聪明的留了余地，只是将特斯拉悲观目标价下调，而Ravi则是一直看空，而2002年亚马逊超预期的业绩也直接打爆Ravi标志着互联网股票的触底，Ravi之后也离开卖方，现在是对冲基金Valmiki Capital的投资总监，他和亚马逊也许都还算是泡沫后的赢家。\n\n互联网女皇Mary则在亚马逊等股票大跌80%之后仍然坚持自己的OW（超配）评级，并且解释说人们并不理解互联网行业长期逻辑，虽然受到巨大非议，仍然坚持自己的看法，不过她最看好的公司，除了Netscape以外，Amazon，eBay和Yahoo都活了下来，而且Mary在2004年因为参与Google的IPO再次让她重获声名。2010年已是Managing Director（董事总经理）的Mary离开Morgan Stanley，开始成为VC基金Kleiner Perkins的合伙人继续互联网投资事业，后来她投资了DocuSign和Square这样的牛股，同时她也还是每年发布互联网的趋势报告继续以“互联网女皇”被人们所知。从历史来看，后面互联网行业也兑现了她的假设，她应该算是互联网泡沫里面的赢家，虽然不至于如当年那么呼风唤雨，但仍然继续事业的成功。\n她的对手Bill Gurley虽然看空了Netscape，但仍然是互联网投资的先锋并且参与了亚马逊的IPO，离开卖方之后开始了投资生涯，是VC Hummer Winlad的合伙人，投资了包括Uber并成为公司董事，他的投资业绩似乎比Mary还要成功。\n当然这次泡沫之后，唯一没有什么改变的就是全程没有参与的沃伦巴菲特，巴菲特还是那个喝着可乐的快乐老头，仍然可以左右整个华尔街，并没有因为错过互联网而“过时”。\n\n一点启示\n其实经过这个泡沫，我觉得有几点可以肯定：\n\n泡沫绝对有它诞生的理由甚至基本面的支撑：美国强劲的经济，PC的普及和政策的支持都是带来整个泡沫的温床，没有什么泡沫是无厘头的幻想，大部分有强劲的基本面支撑；\n互联网泡沫逻辑长期看并没有错：从后来人类历史和互联网发展来看，互联网逻辑都兑现了，甚至远远超过预期，只是我们太领先于行业的发展，类似于风筝，飞的太高太快，线就会断，所以不要认为行业前景正确行业高速增长泡沫就肯定能被消化而不会破灭。当然，泡沫破灭也不代表这个行业完全被证伪，如果在2001年因为泡沫破灭转行的人，可能多少会有点遗憾；\n泡沫的长度和幅度永远无法预测：在1997年就有分析师唱空Netscape，如果后面来看其实是对的，但事实证明这个实在太早，反而大错特错，继续巩固了互联网女神Mary的江湖地位，所以不要去轻易猜顶，泡沫幅度也许远远超过想象，那家在2000年发布调研报告做空互联网的对冲基金也许只是运气最好的那个而已；\n泡沫破灭总是不经意间发生的：虽然可以找到很多所谓的原因，证明泡沫的破灭即将到来，但在大跌当天你甚至找不到任何具体事件，泡沫就突然破灭了，而泡沫破灭速度之快如同上涨时候一样非常超预期，而回头看才发现这些公司的财报是如此的脆弱，当时为什么会相信这些公司可以值这么多钱，所以留一份醉的同时，一定要留一份清醒。\n\n总之，我们可以找到太多太多类似的故事，从日本房地产泡沫，90年代台湾股市泡沫，到97年的东南亚金融危机到互联网泡沫以及08年金融危机。所以资本市场里泡沫是一定的，现在的比特币、软件SaaS、新能源汽车也许也是或多或少的泡沫，但他们也确实是发展方向，所以泡沫并非毒药，\n但如果无法理解这些泡沫，要么我们和巴菲特一样有定力完全不管，要么我们也不得不参与其中，只是永远要记住，不要成为真正相信泡沫或者增长可以永远持续而最后一个买入的人，毕竟就算你足够足够幸运，在2000年高位买入的是最后活下来并且发展最好的亚马逊，回到下跌前的高点也是7年之后的2007年了，你真的能够抗住不在这个过程中割肉吗？","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1468,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":801411371,"gmtCreate":1627527473693,"gmtModify":1627527473693,"author":{"id":"3576640463093459","authorId":"3576640463093459","name":"罗素London","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9969255f02bcdd16ca31ef33facd48df","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3576640463093459","authorIdStr":"3576640463093459"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看","listText":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看","text":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/801411371","repostId":"1117872420","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1117872420","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"全球第五大财经门户网站Investing.com中国官方微信，提供全球各国海量金融资讯和实时行情数据，包括股票股指、外汇、期货、基金、债券、加密货币等。关注全球金融市场动态的投资者千万不可错过。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"英为财情Investing","id":"92","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/406e2b4996e14cd8a66a2a6864ef4313"},"pubTimestamp":1627472509,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1117872420?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-07-28 19:41","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"纳斯达克梦向三万点，或在这一个十年？","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1117872420","media":"英为财情Investing","summary":"近期市场迎来美股财报季，苹果、特斯拉 、谷歌母公司等一个个靓丽的财报被披露，市场期待美股将继续上涨，甚至一度有纳斯达克指数冲上三万点的呼声。\n不过对于目前还在一万五千点附近徘徊的纳斯达克指数来说，站上","content":"<p>近期市场迎来美股财报季，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">苹果</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">特斯拉</a> 、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GOOG\">谷歌</a>母公司等一个个靓丽的财报被披露，市场期待美股将继续上涨，<b>甚至一度有纳斯达克指数冲上三万点的呼声</b>。</p>\n<p>不过对于目前还在一万五千点附近徘徊的纳斯达克指数来说，站上三万点无疑有些天方夜谭。但是如果你仔细研究一下过去的数据的话，纳指未来站上三万点或许并不是痴人说梦。</p>\n<p>在去年3月份的时候，纳斯达克指数还处于七千点下方。仅仅用了一年多的时间纳斯达克指数就翻了一倍来到了一万五千点。假如该指数继续以过去 12 个月的速度上涨的话，它将在短短两年内达到一个令人难以置信的里程碑——<b>三万点</b>！</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7a4c8fc1297e84b4d3b550a54e7d7313\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p>\n<p>当然去年由于<b>疫情</b>的原因导致其处于低位，后面在市场的刺激下上涨速度较快。假如我们以纳斯达克指数在<b>过去五年中的回报速度</b>为基准，纳斯达克到达三万点的速度也只会略微增加到3.3 年。</p>\n<p>但是我们如果再次扩大时间线，回到互联网泡沫之前的峰值，以<b>过去21年的增速</b>为基准，纳斯达克指数就还需要14年才能到达三万点。</p>\n<p>所以，假如我们不考虑现阶段的各种因素，比如市场是否被高估，当前利率环境和财政政策等，只是简单的按照过去的涨跌幅来推断未来，那么我们需要尽可能多的回顾过去。就美国股市而言，数据至少可以追溯到1793年。</p>\n<p>由圣克拉拉大学利维商学院名誉教授Edward McQuarrie提供的数据库显示，自 1793 年以来的整体市场年化回报率比通胀率高 6.1%；而根据克利夫兰联储的数据模型显示，未来十年的通胀预期为1.6%，<b>则整体市场的回报率为7.7%</b>。</p>\n<p>根据Ken French教授自 1926 年以来关于大盘增长板块表现的数据（该板块与纳斯达克综合指数的股票最接近），<b>纳斯达克综合指数相对于整体市场的回报要低0.1%</b>。</p>\n<p>也就是说，<b>未来几年纳斯达克的名义回报率仅为7.6%</b>，这远低于纳斯达克综合指数过去 12 个月 41.8% 的回报率，也低于过去五年 23.8% 的年化回报率。</p>\n<p>世界上没有只涨不跌的东西，该贪婪的时候要贪婪，该恐惧的时候更要恐惧。</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>纳斯达克梦向三万点，或在这一个十年？</title>\n<style 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}\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n纳斯达克梦向三万点，或在这一个十年？\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/92\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/406e2b4996e14cd8a66a2a6864ef4313);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">英为财情Investing </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2021-07-28 19:41</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>近期市场迎来美股财报季，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">苹果</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">特斯拉</a> 、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GOOG\">谷歌</a>母公司等一个个靓丽的财报被披露，市场期待美股将继续上涨，<b>甚至一度有纳斯达克指数冲上三万点的呼声</b>。</p>\n<p>不过对于目前还在一万五千点附近徘徊的纳斯达克指数来说，站上三万点无疑有些天方夜谭。但是如果你仔细研究一下过去的数据的话，纳指未来站上三万点或许并不是痴人说梦。</p>\n<p>在去年3月份的时候，纳斯达克指数还处于七千点下方。仅仅用了一年多的时间纳斯达克指数就翻了一倍来到了一万五千点。假如该指数继续以过去 12 个月的速度上涨的话，它将在短短两年内达到一个令人难以置信的里程碑——<b>三万点</b>！</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7a4c8fc1297e84b4d3b550a54e7d7313\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p>\n<p>当然去年由于<b>疫情</b>的原因导致其处于低位，后面在市场的刺激下上涨速度较快。假如我们以纳斯达克指数在<b>过去五年中的回报速度</b>为基准，纳斯达克到达三万点的速度也只会略微增加到3.3 年。</p>\n<p>但是我们如果再次扩大时间线，回到互联网泡沫之前的峰值，以<b>过去21年的增速</b>为基准，纳斯达克指数就还需要14年才能到达三万点。</p>\n<p>所以，假如我们不考虑现阶段的各种因素，比如市场是否被高估，当前利率环境和财政政策等，只是简单的按照过去的涨跌幅来推断未来，那么我们需要尽可能多的回顾过去。就美国股市而言，数据至少可以追溯到1793年。</p>\n<p>由圣克拉拉大学利维商学院名誉教授Edward McQuarrie提供的数据库显示，自 1793 年以来的整体市场年化回报率比通胀率高 6.1%；而根据克利夫兰联储的数据模型显示，未来十年的通胀预期为1.6%，<b>则整体市场的回报率为7.7%</b>。</p>\n<p>根据Ken French教授自 1926 年以来关于大盘增长板块表现的数据（该板块与纳斯达克综合指数的股票最接近），<b>纳斯达克综合指数相对于整体市场的回报要低0.1%</b>。</p>\n<p>也就是说，<b>未来几年纳斯达克的名义回报率仅为7.6%</b>，这远低于纳斯达克综合指数过去 12 个月 41.8% 的回报率，也低于过去五年 23.8% 的年化回报率。</p>\n<p>世界上没有只涨不跌的东西，该贪婪的时候要贪婪，该恐惧的时候更要恐惧。</p>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5d8fb95e65f042f352c6313989391357","relate_stocks":{"QLD":"纳指两倍做多ETF","QQQ":"纳指100ETF","TQQQ":"纳指三倍做多ETF","03086":"华夏纳指",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","PSQ":"纳指反向ETF","QID":"纳指两倍做空ETF","SQQQ":"纳指三倍做空ETF"},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1117872420","content_text":"近期市场迎来美股财报季，苹果、特斯拉 、谷歌母公司等一个个靓丽的财报被披露，市场期待美股将继续上涨，甚至一度有纳斯达克指数冲上三万点的呼声。\n不过对于目前还在一万五千点附近徘徊的纳斯达克指数来说，站上三万点无疑有些天方夜谭。但是如果你仔细研究一下过去的数据的话，纳指未来站上三万点或许并不是痴人说梦。\n在去年3月份的时候，纳斯达克指数还处于七千点下方。仅仅用了一年多的时间纳斯达克指数就翻了一倍来到了一万五千点。假如该指数继续以过去 12 个月的速度上涨的话，它将在短短两年内达到一个令人难以置信的里程碑——三万点！\n\n当然去年由于疫情的原因导致其处于低位，后面在市场的刺激下上涨速度较快。假如我们以纳斯达克指数在过去五年中的回报速度为基准，纳斯达克到达三万点的速度也只会略微增加到3.3 年。\n但是我们如果再次扩大时间线，回到互联网泡沫之前的峰值，以过去21年的增速为基准，纳斯达克指数就还需要14年才能到达三万点。\n所以，假如我们不考虑现阶段的各种因素，比如市场是否被高估，当前利率环境和财政政策等，只是简单的按照过去的涨跌幅来推断未来，那么我们需要尽可能多的回顾过去。就美国股市而言，数据至少可以追溯到1793年。\n由圣克拉拉大学利维商学院名誉教授Edward McQuarrie提供的数据库显示，自 1793 年以来的整体市场年化回报率比通胀率高 6.1%；而根据克利夫兰联储的数据模型显示，未来十年的通胀预期为1.6%，则整体市场的回报率为7.7%。\n根据Ken French教授自 1926 年以来关于大盘增长板块表现的数据（该板块与纳斯达克综合指数的股票最接近），纳斯达克综合指数相对于整体市场的回报要低0.1%。\n也就是说，未来几年纳斯达克的名义回报率仅为7.6%，这远低于纳斯达克综合指数过去 12 个月 41.8% 的回报率，也低于过去五年 23.8% 的年化回报率。\n世界上没有只涨不跌的东西，该贪婪的时候要贪婪，该恐惧的时候更要恐惧。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1905,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":809841229,"gmtCreate":1627360644061,"gmtModify":1627360644061,"author":{"id":"3576640463093459","authorId":"3576640463093459","name":"罗素London","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9969255f02bcdd16ca31ef33facd48df","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3576640463093459","authorIdStr":"3576640463093459"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看","listText":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看","text":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/809841229","repostId":"1134125318","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1738,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":174168954,"gmtCreate":1627086482078,"gmtModify":1627086482078,"author":{"id":"3576640463093459","authorId":"3576640463093459","name":"罗素London","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9969255f02bcdd16ca31ef33facd48df","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3576640463093459","authorIdStr":"3576640463093459"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看","listText":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看","text":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/174168954","repostId":"1115821085","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1115821085","pubTimestamp":1625214660,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1115821085?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-07-02 16:31","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Palantir: Great Company, Risky Investment","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1115821085","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Summary\n\nPalantir holds a unique place in the market and has a significant moat around this business","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p>\n<ul>\n <li>Palantir holds a unique place in the market and has a significant moat around this business.</li>\n <li>Having said this, even under optimistic assumptions, Palantir looks overvalued.</li>\n <li>Furthermore, Palantir faces a unique and hard to control set of challenges.</li>\n</ul>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/24b21fd364a3c58b289354c3e5b92fd0\" tg-width=\"768\" tg-height=\"512\"><span>Maria Marganingsih/iStock via Getty Images</span></p>\n<p><b>Thesis Summary</b></p>\n<p>Palantir Technologies Inc. (PLTR) is, by many accounts, an outstanding company. We believe that Palantir occupies a niche spot in the market, and has built a moat around its business thanks to its technology and workforce.</p>\n<p>We have derived a valuation for Palantir using trend analysis and comparables, with a 2030 horizon, where we tackle mainly profitability and equity dilution. Although our target price for that year is nearly $42 per share, this only represents a 4.6% annual growth rate from the current price.</p>\n<p>Ultimately, though Palantir is a great business, the current price does not offer investors attractive returns.</p>\n<p><b>What makes Palantir special?</b></p>\n<p>Palantir seems to be one of the most popular stocks to talk about in the last few months. The company, which has been around since 2003, but IPO'd only eight and a half months ago, is followed closely by both hawkish bears and delighted bulls. But why? What exactly makes Palantir so special?</p>\n<p>The bears would point out nothing, and while I do agree that, oftentimes, unwarranted hype is created around buzzwords like \"data\", I will argue here that Palantir is special. This is important because it puts Palantir in a great situation in terms of the competitive landscape and growth opportunities. However, it also creates a very particular set of \"risks\" and challenges for the company.</p>\n<p>On the most superficial level, Palantir is a \"data analytics company\", which has found itself a nice spot on the list of government contractors, both domestic and abroad. This already makes the company more interesting than many others. There is nothing today growing faster than data, and at close second we could put government spending. However, this misses the point of what actually makes the company special, or, more specifically, what has allowed the company to gain so much favour with public institutions, and now private clients.</p>\n<p>If we could put it into one sentence, we would say the following: Palantir walks a fine line between data analytics and consulting. Indeed, the company has some very powerful proprietary software, which we might as well call an AI, but it also has one of the most talented workforces in the world, with specific task forces being created to address the needs of each client/contract.</p>\n<p>Think about it like a mix between McKinsey and International Business Machines (IBM). In practice, it's not enough to have a powerful computer that can find great insights. First, it has to be led in the right direction, and then those insights have to be implemented properly. And of course, once you implement new measures, these create a whole new set of variables and data, so you can rinse and repeat indefinitely.</p>\n<p>This is what a lot of people miss about this company. Some think it just has great software, which it does, but its biggest asset, we would argue, is its \"business model\" which is powered by its workforce. Furthermore, many of those who do acknowledge the fact that Palantir relies heavily on using specialized employees to address their clients' needs point this out as a weakness rather than the great strength that it is. They would argue that Palantir has to spend a lot of money on employing people to help their clients use their product, which makes it less \"profitable\", but this is a very rudimentary understanding of the situation. It's true that it might not achieve such high margins as a traditional SaaS, but it definitely doesn't mean the company is unprofitable. Consulting firms, like McKinsey or Accenture plc (ACN), do just this, employ people to help out their clients, and they certainly don't seem to struggle to make a profit. Ultimately, a cost is justified as long as it brings sufficient value.</p>\n<p><b>Does Palantir have a \"moat\"?</b></p>\n<p>But even if Palantir is special; does this matter? How does this set it apart from its competitors? In this regard, Palantir faces three different sets of competitors:</p>\n<p>Firstly, Palantir is competing with traditional consulting firms. Ultimately, this is what the company does, since it is working hand-in-hand with its clients to improve their operations. Consulting firms like Accenture and McKinsey do this to a certain degree, but at the moment, they lack the technical requirements and niche focus that Palantir has.</p>\n<p>From a data analytics sector perspective, Palantir could be put into the same category as companies like IBM or SAP SE (SAP). These companies do indeed have the necessary resources to compete with Palantir in terms of services, but not on price. These companies have been around for too long and are way too big to be able to compete in price with Palantir. They simply cannot scale down efficiently enough.</p>\n<p>Lastly, the company competes head-to-head with other defence contractors such as Booz Allen Hamilton Holding Corporation (BAH) and SAIC. The problem these firms have competing with Palantir is that they are not specialized enough within their offerings.</p>\n<p>To sum up, we would argue that Palantir's moat comes, firstly, from its business proposition. Palantir was created with a very clear idea behind it, which allowed it to be a niche company. This specialization also allows it to be more efficient, and offer clients more competitive prices.</p>\n<p>It is true that this business model can be copied. There is nothing stopping new companies from doing what Palantir is doing and there are some startups attempting to do this, such as&nbsp;Digital Reasoning, but bear in mind this company has only ever received $134 million in funding. What does set Palantir apart from its competitors and is something that they can't easily replicate is its workforce. Palantir spends a lot of money to find and keep the best talent in the industry. A big part of this is done through stock-based compensation, which is a hot topic&nbsp;I discussed here. In any case, Palantir has the advantage of being \"the place to be\" right now, within the industry. This popularity and recognition has increased even more since its IPO and is a key factor in attracting and retaining young talent. This talent is, ultimately, the company's biggest strength.</p>\n<p><b>Addressable Market &amp; Growth Opportunities</b></p>\n<p>With that said, let's proceed towards analysing Palantir's TAM and Growth outlook.</p>\n<p>In the sections above, we mentioned how Palantir is in a unique situation, because it is both a consulting firm and a data analytics firm, and it also has significant government contracts. Therefore, we could look at TAM from these three perspectives:</p>\n<p>Starting with consulting, this is perhaps the least exciting of the three areas where Palantir can grow. According to research, the \"Management Consulting Services\" industry will grow at a CAGR of 8% through 2025, which would put the industry at a size of $1201.06 billion. Granted, this is not impressive growth but it is a remarkable size. In this sense, Palantir could actually attack much of this market, which is now dominated by \"the big four\".</p>\n<p>From the point of view of data analytics, we have a market that, in this case, is growing very fast. According to Quince Market Insights, this segment will grow at a&nbsp;CAGR of 25% in the next 10 years. Furthermore, studies have also found that, currently, companies only analyze around&nbsp;12% of their data.This creates a massive opportunity for a company like Palantir to come in, and show these companies exactly how and why they need to analyze their data.</p>\n<p>Lastly, since Palantir works closely with the government, it is only reasonable to believe that the more it spends, the more Palantir will make.The CBO projects&nbsp;average yearly deficits of $1.2 trillion from 2022 to 2030. This is in line with the current tendency of continued increase in public spending, but what is most encouraging is where this spending will take place:</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8330575726862d333c1cfabc18987a50\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"626\"><span>Source:CBO.gov</span></p>\n<p>By 2030, the biggest item on the Federal government's expense sheet will be Major Health Care Programs, which will be equivalent to 9% of GDP. Data from the NHE also suggest that by 2028 healthcare will be a&nbsp;$6.2 trillion business.Again, this is great news for Palantir, since data analytics within the healthcare industry is a high growth area. Palantir already has clients in this area, including the&nbsp;UK's National Health System[NHS].</p>\n<p>All in all, Palantir has the benefit of working within a fast-growing sector, data, but with the ability of being able to deploy their technology and workforce to solve niche applications. Given that the data analytics industry is projected to grow at 25% and that Palantir has strong government connections, we believe the company could easily achieve analysts' goal of 30% CAGR over the next 5 years.</p>\n<p><b>Profitability Analysis</b></p>\n<p>Profitability is expected to grow as revenues reach higher levels. The question that any investor would like answered is not only if this is going to be the case, but by how much. Our aim here is to make a forecast of Palantir revenues and earnings until 2030 so that we can later make a sound valuation of the stock through earnings multiples. The method used here is a combination of trendline analysis of existing financials, performances by most comparable competitors, and estimates by analysts and the company itself.</p>\n<p>We have already talked about the addressable market and growth prospects, now it is time to quantify the expected revenue path for Palantir. Since companies rarely sustain such high growth rates in the long run, we find that a second order polynomial trendline is often the best method to calculate this. This type of equation delivers a flatter curve than an exponential trendline, which assumes a constant growth rate. For Palantir's quarterly revenue, it is also a very good fit as you can see below. You can see the trendline along the actual revenue recorded in the last nine quarters, and a projection until 2030 Q4.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/acada8ddc443d930e8cb4e3929b42015\" tg-width=\"515\" tg-height=\"341\"><span>Source: Author's work based on financial records. Revenue in $million. Quarters are numbered from 1 (Q1 2019) to 48 (Q4 2030)</span></p>\n<p>If you apply the function above you get a forecasted yearly revenue of 11.9 billion for 2030, including $3.1 billion in Q4 of that year. This is not far from the consensus estimate for 2030 you can find on Seeking Alpha, which is $12.42 billion. According to the latest earnings call, management expects to deliver 30%+ growth at least in the next four years. To put this into perspective, a CAGR of 30% until 2030 would give a revenue of $11.5 billion. Taking the three into account, we will keep our trendline estimate of 11.9, which lies between the other two figures.</p>\n<p>Gross margins have been improving gradually according to GAAP figures over the last nine quarters, from nearly 68% in the first quarter of 2019 to over 78% in the latest quarter. Except for an unusually bad figure in Q3 2020, which has been taken out of the equation for a smoother analysis, the gross margin as a function of revenue shows a predictable path of improvement through a linear trend, as you can see in this chart.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9094dcdd5ddbc9df1499318bf694ad7a\" tg-width=\"481\" tg-height=\"289\"><span>Source: Author's work based on financial records. Items in $million</span></p>\n<p>Data excludes a figure of (289,140) from Q3 2020.</p>\n<p>The linear equation above, with a 0.9 slope, generates a forecast where the gross margin should tend towards 90% of revenue. Applying this formula to the forecasted revenue of $11.9 billion predicts a gross margin figure of $10.6 billion for 2030.</p>\n<p>In order to transform gross margins into net income, so that we can make a valuation based on an earnings multiple, we will look at one of Palantir's comparables, discussed&nbsp;in a previous article, Cognizant (NASDAQ:CTSH). The reason for using Cognizant is that not only is the activity they carry out similar but it is also an example of a profitable pier with a fairly consistent earnings margin, and with debt and gross margin volumes comparable to the ones we are predicting for Palantir.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7effd28b7de277b78a107d14608164ff\" tg-width=\"481\" tg-height=\"289\"><span>Source: Author's work.</span></p>\n<p>With gross margins stable at around 6 billion in recent years, CTSH has maintained a healthy level of net income, ranging from 22% to 35% of gross profits. To make a fair estimate, we will assume the average percentage through the 10-year period, which is 30.61% of gross profit. We will also assume that Palantir achieves that level in 2030, with a gradual increase of the percentage until then.</p>\n<p>This completes our revenue and earnings estimates for Palantir in 2030, reaching 11.9 billion revenue, $10.6 billion gross margin, and $3.3 billion net income.</p>\n<table>\n <tbody>\n  <tr>\n   <td><p>Year</p></td>\n   <td><p>2021</p></td>\n   <td><p>2022</p></td>\n   <td><p>2023</p></td>\n   <td><p>2024</p></td>\n   <td><p>2025</p></td>\n   <td><p>2026</p></td>\n   <td><p>2027</p></td>\n   <td><p>2028</p></td>\n   <td><p>2029</p></td>\n   <td><p>2030</p></td>\n  </tr>\n  <tr>\n   <td><p>Reven.</p></td>\n   <td><p>1,581</p></td>\n   <td><p>2,196</p></td>\n   <td><p>2,942</p></td>\n   <td><p>3,820</p></td>\n   <td><p>4,830</p></td>\n   <td><p>5,972</p></td>\n   <td><p>7,245</p></td>\n   <td><p>8,650</p></td>\n   <td><p>10,188</p></td>\n   <td><p>11,856</p></td>\n  </tr>\n  <tr>\n   <td><p>Gross Profit</p></td>\n   <td><p>1,382</p></td>\n   <td><p>1,936</p></td>\n   <td><p>2,608</p></td>\n   <td><p>3,399</p></td>\n   <td><p>4,309</p></td>\n   <td><p>5,338</p></td>\n   <td><p>6,485</p></td>\n   <td><p>7,751</p></td>\n   <td><p>9,136</p></td>\n   <td><p>10,639</p></td>\n  </tr>\n  <tr>\n   <td><p>Net Income</p></td>\n   <td><p>42</p></td>\n   <td><p>119</p></td>\n   <td><p>240</p></td>\n   <td><p>416</p></td>\n   <td><p>660</p></td>\n   <td><p>980</p></td>\n   <td><p>1,390</p></td>\n   <td><p>1,898</p></td>\n   <td><p>2,517</p></td>\n   <td><p>3,257</p></td>\n  </tr>\n </tbody>\n</table>\n<p>Source: Author's work. Items in $millions.</p>\n<p><b>Valuation</b></p>\n<p>Having forecasted revenues and earnings, we are prepared to estimate a path for Palantir's stock price. In order to do this, we need to also look into financing through equity and how the dilution will affect share prices. We are going to continue using the 2030 horizon as the timeframe.</p>\n<p>First, we will create an estimate for market capitalization based on the current sector median earnings multiple, and then we will make a forecast for the dilution. The current GAAP TTM Price/earnings ratio for the sector is 33.94. The assumption here is that as Palantir becomes profitable, its valuation should approach this multiple and be fairly valued for its earnings. Based on the earnings we forecasted and the 33.94 PE ratio, we get the following estimated market capitalizations:</p>\n<table>\n <tbody>\n  <tr>\n   <td><p>Year</p></td>\n   <td><p>2021</p></td>\n   <td><p>2022</p></td>\n   <td><p>2023</p></td>\n   <td><p>2024</p></td>\n   <td><p>2025</p></td>\n   <td><p>2026</p></td>\n   <td><p>2027</p></td>\n   <td><p>2028</p></td>\n   <td><p>2029</p></td>\n   <td><p>2030</p></td>\n  </tr>\n  <tr>\n   <td><p>Net Inc.</p></td>\n   <td><p>42</p></td>\n   <td><p>119</p></td>\n   <td><p>240</p></td>\n   <td><p>416</p></td>\n   <td><p>660</p></td>\n   <td><p>980</p></td>\n   <td><p>1,390</p></td>\n   <td><p>1,898</p></td>\n   <td><p>2,517</p></td>\n   <td><p>3,257</p></td>\n  </tr>\n  <tr>\n   <td><p>Mkt. Cap [PE]</p></td>\n   <td><p>1,436</p></td>\n   <td><p>4,023</p></td>\n   <td><p>8,129</p></td>\n   <td><p>14,126</p></td>\n   <td><p>22,384</p></td>\n   <td><p>33,272</p></td>\n   <td><p>47,160</p></td>\n   <td><p>64,420</p></td>\n   <td><p>85,421</p></td>\n   <td><p>110,532</p></td>\n  </tr>\n </tbody>\n</table>\n<p>Source: Author's work. Items in $millions.</p>\n<p>As you can see, the current market capitalization of slightly over $50 billion wouldn't be justified by earnings until after 2027, reaching a level of $111 billion by 2030. This represents a CAGR of just 8.57%, before we take dilution into account.</p>\n<p>In order to predict how the number of common shares is likely to evolve over these years, we have made a forecast of the book value based on revenue, assuming the balance sheet maintains a similar structure relative to the volume of operations. If we look at the last four quarters, we have a fairly consistent linear pattern of how book value has increased with quarterly revenue, as you can see below.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9066505bd8b5fce4ebf0d4f538a4bafe\" tg-width=\"481\" tg-height=\"289\"><span>Source: Author's work based on financial records. Items in $million</span></p>\n<p>Applying this equation, with a revenue of $3.1 billion in Q4 2030, as per our previous forecast, the book value should rise to $34.2 billion. If we take into account the current book value of 1.8 billion and the accumulated net income we have already forecasted for the whole period, which is $11.5 billion, we estimate that an additional $20.9 billion of funding through new equity will be required. At the current share price of $27.37, this would mean 739 million additional common shares by the end of 2030. Added to the current 1.8 billion outstanding, the total is 2.6 billion common shares. Applying the $111 billion market capitalization we have forecasted, the resulting target price for the end of 2030 is $41.87. You can see a summary of these figures below.</p>\n<table>\n <tbody>\n  <tr>\n   <td><p>Concept</p></td>\n   <td><p>Amount</p></td>\n  </tr>\n  <tr>\n   <td><p>Revenue Q4 2030</p></td>\n   <td><p>3,128</p></td>\n  </tr>\n  <tr>\n   <td><p>Book Value Q4 2030</p></td>\n   <td><p>34,212</p></td>\n  </tr>\n  <tr>\n   <td><p>Book Value Q1 2021</p></td>\n   <td><p>1,806</p></td>\n  </tr>\n  <tr>\n   <td><p>Acc. Net Income Q2 2021-Q4 2030</p></td>\n   <td><p>11,517</p></td>\n  </tr>\n  <tr>\n   <td><p>Financing from new equity</p></td>\n   <td><p>20,889</p></td>\n  </tr>\n  <tr>\n   <td><p>Current Share Price</p></td>\n   <td><p>$ 27.37</p></td>\n  </tr>\n  <tr>\n   <td><p>New shares required</p></td>\n   <td><p>763</p></td>\n  </tr>\n  <tr>\n   <td><p>Market cap 2030 Q4</p></td>\n   <td><p>110,532</p></td>\n  </tr>\n  <tr>\n   <td><p>Nº Shares 2030 Q4 (millions)</p></td>\n   <td><p>2,640</p></td>\n  </tr>\n  <tr>\n   <td><p>Target Price 2030 Q4</p></td>\n   <td><p>$ 41.87</p></td>\n  </tr>\n  <tr>\n   <td><p>CAGR</p></td>\n   <td><p>4.58%</p></td>\n  </tr>\n </tbody>\n</table>\n<p>Source: Author's work. Monetary items in $millions, except per share items, nº of shares in millions.</p>\n<p>As you can see, the expected CAGR for Palantir's stock price as per our forecasted fair value at the end of 2030 is just 4.58%. If we were to require, say, a 10% return, which is more reasonable for a growth stock, the fair price today would be $16.93, 38% lower than the current price.</p>\n<p><b>Risks</b></p>\n<p>Having said all this, we also have to mention some particular challenges that a company like Palantir faces. The most significant of these would relate to how the company has to manage its image in a world where privacy is becoming \"taboo\".</p>\n<p>Palantir is a company that, on many levels, has a lot of power, which can be both a blessing and a curse. The company has to be very careful with its data to avoid any events that could damage its reputation, which it needs in order to survive. Think, for example, Edward Snowden, who before becoming one of the most wanted men in the world was working for Booz Allen. What would happen if the next whistleblower came from within Palantir's ranks?</p>\n<p>On top of that, Palantir is also facing resistance from organizations abroad. For example, there is currently a campaign in the UK trying to stop Palantir fromworking with the NHS. It's understandable that some people may not want their medical data to be handled by a foreign company, even if it is from an allied country.</p>\n<p>Ultimately, these are very particular challenges that Palantir faces. Its growth could be hampered if people or even the government start to think the company is \"too powerful\". Furthermore, if anything happened to damage the company's reputation, Palantir could be finished overnight. Of course, this is why the company invests so heavily in its workforce. But will it be enough?</p>\n<p><b>Takeaway</b></p>\n<p>In conclusion, we believe Palantir is qualitatively a great company. They operate in a niche market with a lot of growth potential. On top of that, Palantir has one of the best technologies and workforces in the market right now, but this is not enough. Even with double-digit growth and assuming a steady path towards profitability, Palantir seems way too expensive today to provide investors with good returns. A great company doesn't always make a great investment, and we feel this is the case with Palantir.</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Palantir: Great Company, Risky Investment</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nPalantir: Great Company, Risky Investment\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-07-02 16:31 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4437458-palantir-great-company-bad-investment><strong>seekingalpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Summary\n\nPalantir holds a unique place in the market and has a significant moat around this business.\nHaving said this, even under optimistic assumptions, Palantir looks overvalued.\nFurthermore, ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4437458-palantir-great-company-bad-investment\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"PLTR":"Palantir Technologies Inc."},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4437458-palantir-great-company-bad-investment","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1115821085","content_text":"Summary\n\nPalantir holds a unique place in the market and has a significant moat around this business.\nHaving said this, even under optimistic assumptions, Palantir looks overvalued.\nFurthermore, Palantir faces a unique and hard to control set of challenges.\n\nMaria Marganingsih/iStock via Getty Images\nThesis Summary\nPalantir Technologies Inc. (PLTR) is, by many accounts, an outstanding company. We believe that Palantir occupies a niche spot in the market, and has built a moat around its business thanks to its technology and workforce.\nWe have derived a valuation for Palantir using trend analysis and comparables, with a 2030 horizon, where we tackle mainly profitability and equity dilution. Although our target price for that year is nearly $42 per share, this only represents a 4.6% annual growth rate from the current price.\nUltimately, though Palantir is a great business, the current price does not offer investors attractive returns.\nWhat makes Palantir special?\nPalantir seems to be one of the most popular stocks to talk about in the last few months. The company, which has been around since 2003, but IPO'd only eight and a half months ago, is followed closely by both hawkish bears and delighted bulls. But why? What exactly makes Palantir so special?\nThe bears would point out nothing, and while I do agree that, oftentimes, unwarranted hype is created around buzzwords like \"data\", I will argue here that Palantir is special. This is important because it puts Palantir in a great situation in terms of the competitive landscape and growth opportunities. However, it also creates a very particular set of \"risks\" and challenges for the company.\nOn the most superficial level, Palantir is a \"data analytics company\", which has found itself a nice spot on the list of government contractors, both domestic and abroad. This already makes the company more interesting than many others. There is nothing today growing faster than data, and at close second we could put government spending. However, this misses the point of what actually makes the company special, or, more specifically, what has allowed the company to gain so much favour with public institutions, and now private clients.\nIf we could put it into one sentence, we would say the following: Palantir walks a fine line between data analytics and consulting. Indeed, the company has some very powerful proprietary software, which we might as well call an AI, but it also has one of the most talented workforces in the world, with specific task forces being created to address the needs of each client/contract.\nThink about it like a mix between McKinsey and International Business Machines (IBM). In practice, it's not enough to have a powerful computer that can find great insights. First, it has to be led in the right direction, and then those insights have to be implemented properly. And of course, once you implement new measures, these create a whole new set of variables and data, so you can rinse and repeat indefinitely.\nThis is what a lot of people miss about this company. Some think it just has great software, which it does, but its biggest asset, we would argue, is its \"business model\" which is powered by its workforce. Furthermore, many of those who do acknowledge the fact that Palantir relies heavily on using specialized employees to address their clients' needs point this out as a weakness rather than the great strength that it is. They would argue that Palantir has to spend a lot of money on employing people to help their clients use their product, which makes it less \"profitable\", but this is a very rudimentary understanding of the situation. It's true that it might not achieve such high margins as a traditional SaaS, but it definitely doesn't mean the company is unprofitable. Consulting firms, like McKinsey or Accenture plc (ACN), do just this, employ people to help out their clients, and they certainly don't seem to struggle to make a profit. Ultimately, a cost is justified as long as it brings sufficient value.\nDoes Palantir have a \"moat\"?\nBut even if Palantir is special; does this matter? How does this set it apart from its competitors? In this regard, Palantir faces three different sets of competitors:\nFirstly, Palantir is competing with traditional consulting firms. Ultimately, this is what the company does, since it is working hand-in-hand with its clients to improve their operations. Consulting firms like Accenture and McKinsey do this to a certain degree, but at the moment, they lack the technical requirements and niche focus that Palantir has.\nFrom a data analytics sector perspective, Palantir could be put into the same category as companies like IBM or SAP SE (SAP). These companies do indeed have the necessary resources to compete with Palantir in terms of services, but not on price. These companies have been around for too long and are way too big to be able to compete in price with Palantir. They simply cannot scale down efficiently enough.\nLastly, the company competes head-to-head with other defence contractors such as Booz Allen Hamilton Holding Corporation (BAH) and SAIC. The problem these firms have competing with Palantir is that they are not specialized enough within their offerings.\nTo sum up, we would argue that Palantir's moat comes, firstly, from its business proposition. Palantir was created with a very clear idea behind it, which allowed it to be a niche company. This specialization also allows it to be more efficient, and offer clients more competitive prices.\nIt is true that this business model can be copied. There is nothing stopping new companies from doing what Palantir is doing and there are some startups attempting to do this, such as Digital Reasoning, but bear in mind this company has only ever received $134 million in funding. What does set Palantir apart from its competitors and is something that they can't easily replicate is its workforce. Palantir spends a lot of money to find and keep the best talent in the industry. A big part of this is done through stock-based compensation, which is a hot topic I discussed here. In any case, Palantir has the advantage of being \"the place to be\" right now, within the industry. This popularity and recognition has increased even more since its IPO and is a key factor in attracting and retaining young talent. This talent is, ultimately, the company's biggest strength.\nAddressable Market & Growth Opportunities\nWith that said, let's proceed towards analysing Palantir's TAM and Growth outlook.\nIn the sections above, we mentioned how Palantir is in a unique situation, because it is both a consulting firm and a data analytics firm, and it also has significant government contracts. Therefore, we could look at TAM from these three perspectives:\nStarting with consulting, this is perhaps the least exciting of the three areas where Palantir can grow. According to research, the \"Management Consulting Services\" industry will grow at a CAGR of 8% through 2025, which would put the industry at a size of $1201.06 billion. Granted, this is not impressive growth but it is a remarkable size. In this sense, Palantir could actually attack much of this market, which is now dominated by \"the big four\".\nFrom the point of view of data analytics, we have a market that, in this case, is growing very fast. According to Quince Market Insights, this segment will grow at a CAGR of 25% in the next 10 years. Furthermore, studies have also found that, currently, companies only analyze around 12% of their data.This creates a massive opportunity for a company like Palantir to come in, and show these companies exactly how and why they need to analyze their data.\nLastly, since Palantir works closely with the government, it is only reasonable to believe that the more it spends, the more Palantir will make.The CBO projects average yearly deficits of $1.2 trillion from 2022 to 2030. This is in line with the current tendency of continued increase in public spending, but what is most encouraging is where this spending will take place:\nSource:CBO.gov\nBy 2030, the biggest item on the Federal government's expense sheet will be Major Health Care Programs, which will be equivalent to 9% of GDP. Data from the NHE also suggest that by 2028 healthcare will be a $6.2 trillion business.Again, this is great news for Palantir, since data analytics within the healthcare industry is a high growth area. Palantir already has clients in this area, including the UK's National Health System[NHS].\nAll in all, Palantir has the benefit of working within a fast-growing sector, data, but with the ability of being able to deploy their technology and workforce to solve niche applications. Given that the data analytics industry is projected to grow at 25% and that Palantir has strong government connections, we believe the company could easily achieve analysts' goal of 30% CAGR over the next 5 years.\nProfitability Analysis\nProfitability is expected to grow as revenues reach higher levels. The question that any investor would like answered is not only if this is going to be the case, but by how much. Our aim here is to make a forecast of Palantir revenues and earnings until 2030 so that we can later make a sound valuation of the stock through earnings multiples. The method used here is a combination of trendline analysis of existing financials, performances by most comparable competitors, and estimates by analysts and the company itself.\nWe have already talked about the addressable market and growth prospects, now it is time to quantify the expected revenue path for Palantir. Since companies rarely sustain such high growth rates in the long run, we find that a second order polynomial trendline is often the best method to calculate this. This type of equation delivers a flatter curve than an exponential trendline, which assumes a constant growth rate. For Palantir's quarterly revenue, it is also a very good fit as you can see below. You can see the trendline along the actual revenue recorded in the last nine quarters, and a projection until 2030 Q4.\nSource: Author's work based on financial records. Revenue in $million. Quarters are numbered from 1 (Q1 2019) to 48 (Q4 2030)\nIf you apply the function above you get a forecasted yearly revenue of 11.9 billion for 2030, including $3.1 billion in Q4 of that year. This is not far from the consensus estimate for 2030 you can find on Seeking Alpha, which is $12.42 billion. According to the latest earnings call, management expects to deliver 30%+ growth at least in the next four years. To put this into perspective, a CAGR of 30% until 2030 would give a revenue of $11.5 billion. Taking the three into account, we will keep our trendline estimate of 11.9, which lies between the other two figures.\nGross margins have been improving gradually according to GAAP figures over the last nine quarters, from nearly 68% in the first quarter of 2019 to over 78% in the latest quarter. Except for an unusually bad figure in Q3 2020, which has been taken out of the equation for a smoother analysis, the gross margin as a function of revenue shows a predictable path of improvement through a linear trend, as you can see in this chart.\nSource: Author's work based on financial records. Items in $million\nData excludes a figure of (289,140) from Q3 2020.\nThe linear equation above, with a 0.9 slope, generates a forecast where the gross margin should tend towards 90% of revenue. Applying this formula to the forecasted revenue of $11.9 billion predicts a gross margin figure of $10.6 billion for 2030.\nIn order to transform gross margins into net income, so that we can make a valuation based on an earnings multiple, we will look at one of Palantir's comparables, discussed in a previous article, Cognizant (NASDAQ:CTSH). The reason for using Cognizant is that not only is the activity they carry out similar but it is also an example of a profitable pier with a fairly consistent earnings margin, and with debt and gross margin volumes comparable to the ones we are predicting for Palantir.\nSource: Author's work.\nWith gross margins stable at around 6 billion in recent years, CTSH has maintained a healthy level of net income, ranging from 22% to 35% of gross profits. To make a fair estimate, we will assume the average percentage through the 10-year period, which is 30.61% of gross profit. We will also assume that Palantir achieves that level in 2030, with a gradual increase of the percentage until then.\nThis completes our revenue and earnings estimates for Palantir in 2030, reaching 11.9 billion revenue, $10.6 billion gross margin, and $3.3 billion net income.\n\n\n\nYear\n2021\n2022\n2023\n2024\n2025\n2026\n2027\n2028\n2029\n2030\n\n\nReven.\n1,581\n2,196\n2,942\n3,820\n4,830\n5,972\n7,245\n8,650\n10,188\n11,856\n\n\nGross Profit\n1,382\n1,936\n2,608\n3,399\n4,309\n5,338\n6,485\n7,751\n9,136\n10,639\n\n\nNet Income\n42\n119\n240\n416\n660\n980\n1,390\n1,898\n2,517\n3,257\n\n\n\nSource: Author's work. Items in $millions.\nValuation\nHaving forecasted revenues and earnings, we are prepared to estimate a path for Palantir's stock price. In order to do this, we need to also look into financing through equity and how the dilution will affect share prices. We are going to continue using the 2030 horizon as the timeframe.\nFirst, we will create an estimate for market capitalization based on the current sector median earnings multiple, and then we will make a forecast for the dilution. The current GAAP TTM Price/earnings ratio for the sector is 33.94. The assumption here is that as Palantir becomes profitable, its valuation should approach this multiple and be fairly valued for its earnings. Based on the earnings we forecasted and the 33.94 PE ratio, we get the following estimated market capitalizations:\n\n\n\nYear\n2021\n2022\n2023\n2024\n2025\n2026\n2027\n2028\n2029\n2030\n\n\nNet Inc.\n42\n119\n240\n416\n660\n980\n1,390\n1,898\n2,517\n3,257\n\n\nMkt. Cap [PE]\n1,436\n4,023\n8,129\n14,126\n22,384\n33,272\n47,160\n64,420\n85,421\n110,532\n\n\n\nSource: Author's work. Items in $millions.\nAs you can see, the current market capitalization of slightly over $50 billion wouldn't be justified by earnings until after 2027, reaching a level of $111 billion by 2030. This represents a CAGR of just 8.57%, before we take dilution into account.\nIn order to predict how the number of common shares is likely to evolve over these years, we have made a forecast of the book value based on revenue, assuming the balance sheet maintains a similar structure relative to the volume of operations. If we look at the last four quarters, we have a fairly consistent linear pattern of how book value has increased with quarterly revenue, as you can see below.\nSource: Author's work based on financial records. Items in $million\nApplying this equation, with a revenue of $3.1 billion in Q4 2030, as per our previous forecast, the book value should rise to $34.2 billion. If we take into account the current book value of 1.8 billion and the accumulated net income we have already forecasted for the whole period, which is $11.5 billion, we estimate that an additional $20.9 billion of funding through new equity will be required. At the current share price of $27.37, this would mean 739 million additional common shares by the end of 2030. Added to the current 1.8 billion outstanding, the total is 2.6 billion common shares. Applying the $111 billion market capitalization we have forecasted, the resulting target price for the end of 2030 is $41.87. You can see a summary of these figures below.\n\n\n\nConcept\nAmount\n\n\nRevenue Q4 2030\n3,128\n\n\nBook Value Q4 2030\n34,212\n\n\nBook Value Q1 2021\n1,806\n\n\nAcc. Net Income Q2 2021-Q4 2030\n11,517\n\n\nFinancing from new equity\n20,889\n\n\nCurrent Share Price\n$ 27.37\n\n\nNew shares required\n763\n\n\nMarket cap 2030 Q4\n110,532\n\n\nNº Shares 2030 Q4 (millions)\n2,640\n\n\nTarget Price 2030 Q4\n$ 41.87\n\n\nCAGR\n4.58%\n\n\n\nSource: Author's work. Monetary items in $millions, except per share items, nº of shares in millions.\nAs you can see, the expected CAGR for Palantir's stock price as per our forecasted fair value at the end of 2030 is just 4.58%. If we were to require, say, a 10% return, which is more reasonable for a growth stock, the fair price today would be $16.93, 38% lower than the current price.\nRisks\nHaving said all this, we also have to mention some particular challenges that a company like Palantir faces. The most significant of these would relate to how the company has to manage its image in a world where privacy is becoming \"taboo\".\nPalantir is a company that, on many levels, has a lot of power, which can be both a blessing and a curse. The company has to be very careful with its data to avoid any events that could damage its reputation, which it needs in order to survive. Think, for example, Edward Snowden, who before becoming one of the most wanted men in the world was working for Booz Allen. What would happen if the next whistleblower came from within Palantir's ranks?\nOn top of that, Palantir is also facing resistance from organizations abroad. For example, there is currently a campaign in the UK trying to stop Palantir fromworking with the NHS. It's understandable that some people may not want their medical data to be handled by a foreign company, even if it is from an allied country.\nUltimately, these are very particular challenges that Palantir faces. Its growth could be hampered if people or even the government start to think the company is \"too powerful\". Furthermore, if anything happened to damage the company's reputation, Palantir could be finished overnight. Of course, this is why the company invests so heavily in its workforce. But will it be enough?\nTakeaway\nIn conclusion, we believe Palantir is qualitatively a great company. They operate in a niche market with a lot of growth potential. On top of that, Palantir has one of the best technologies and workforces in the market right now, but this is not enough. Even with double-digit growth and assuming a steady path towards profitability, Palantir seems way too expensive today to provide investors with good returns. A great company doesn't always make a great investment, and we feel this is the case with Palantir.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1895,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":174136664,"gmtCreate":1627084932158,"gmtModify":1627084932158,"author":{"id":"3576640463093459","authorId":"3576640463093459","name":"罗素London","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9969255f02bcdd16ca31ef33facd48df","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3576640463093459","authorIdStr":"3576640463093459"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"庞大的教培从业人员，何去何从","listText":"庞大的教培从业人员，何去何从","text":"庞大的教培从业人员，何去何从","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/174136664","repostId":"2153898280","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1881,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":172857605,"gmtCreate":1626954521207,"gmtModify":1626954521207,"author":{"id":"3576640463093459","authorId":"3576640463093459","name":"罗素London","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9969255f02bcdd16ca31ef33facd48df","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3576640463093459","authorIdStr":"3576640463093459"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看","listText":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看","text":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/172857605","repostId":"1155283695","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1155283695","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据，旨在帮助投资者理解世界，做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1626766547,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1155283695?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-07-20 15:35","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"睿远赵枫二季度持仓公布，小米集团仍为第一大重仓股","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1155283695","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"7月20日讯，赵枫管理的睿远均衡价值三年持有公布二季报。截至二季度末，该产品规模为167.69亿元，较一季度末的152.18亿元增加15.51亿元，股票仓位为86.10%，与上一季度相比变动不大。从行","content":"<p>7月20日讯，赵枫管理的睿远均衡价值三年持有公布二季报。截至二季度末，该产品规模为167.69亿元，较一季度末的152.18亿元增加15.51亿元，股票仓位为86.10%，与上一季度相比变动不大。从行业配置来看，产品进一步增加制造业的配置，房地产行业的仓位完全出清。</p>\n<p>截至二季度末，小米集团仍是第一大重仓股，但持股数量较上一季度减少173.78万股，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/02382\">舜宇光学科技</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00175\">吉利汽车</a>新进产品前十大重仓股，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/000002\">万科A</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/002028\">思源电气</a>从前十大重仓股中退出。全部前十大重仓股依次为小米集团、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CHL\">中国移动</a> 、舜宇光学科技、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00291\">华润啤酒</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/002271\">东方雨虹</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/300298\">三诺生物</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600201\">生物股份</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600309\">万华化学</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/01066\">威高股份</a>、吉利汽车 。</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>睿远赵枫二季度持仓公布，小米集团仍为第一大重仓股</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; 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class=\"title\">\n睿远赵枫二季度持仓公布，小米集团仍为第一大重仓股\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2021-07-20 15:35</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>7月20日讯，赵枫管理的睿远均衡价值三年持有公布二季报。截至二季度末，该产品规模为167.69亿元，较一季度末的152.18亿元增加15.51亿元，股票仓位为86.10%，与上一季度相比变动不大。从行业配置来看，产品进一步增加制造业的配置，房地产行业的仓位完全出清。</p>\n<p>截至二季度末，小米集团仍是第一大重仓股，但持股数量较上一季度减少173.78万股，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/02382\">舜宇光学科技</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00175\">吉利汽车</a>新进产品前十大重仓股，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/000002\">万科A</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/002028\">思源电气</a>从前十大重仓股中退出。全部前十大重仓股依次为小米集团、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CHL\">中国移动</a> 、舜宇光学科技、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00291\">华润啤酒</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/002271\">东方雨虹</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/300298\">三诺生物</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600201\">生物股份</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600309\">万华化学</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/01066\">威高股份</a>、吉利汽车 。</p>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3df686d3a6ca977e8c6841905eb7e18c","relate_stocks":{"CHL":"中国移动","00175":"吉利汽车","00291":"华润啤酒","01066":"威高股份","01810":"小米集团-W","02382":"舜宇光学科技"},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1155283695","content_text":"7月20日讯，赵枫管理的睿远均衡价值三年持有公布二季报。截至二季度末，该产品规模为167.69亿元，较一季度末的152.18亿元增加15.51亿元，股票仓位为86.10%，与上一季度相比变动不大。从行业配置来看，产品进一步增加制造业的配置，房地产行业的仓位完全出清。\n截至二季度末，小米集团仍是第一大重仓股，但持股数量较上一季度减少173.78万股，舜宇光学科技、吉利汽车新进产品前十大重仓股，万科A、思源电气从前十大重仓股中退出。全部前十大重仓股依次为小米集团、中国移动 、舜宇光学科技、华润啤酒、东方雨虹、三诺生物、生物股份、万华化学、威高股份、吉利汽车 。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1779,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":176908807,"gmtCreate":1626851080809,"gmtModify":1626851080809,"author":{"id":"3576640463093459","authorId":"3576640463093459","name":"罗素London","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9969255f02bcdd16ca31ef33facd48df","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3576640463093459","authorIdStr":"3576640463093459"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看","listText":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看","text":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/176908807","repostId":"1198517210","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1251,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":179690588,"gmtCreate":1626511714544,"gmtModify":1626511714544,"author":{"id":"3576640463093459","authorId":"3576640463093459","name":"罗素London","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9969255f02bcdd16ca31ef33facd48df","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3576640463093459","authorIdStr":"3576640463093459"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看","listText":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看","text":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/179690588","repostId":"170675901","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":170675901,"gmtCreate":1626431589203,"gmtModify":1728259734176,"author":{"id":"3497328009582754","authorId":"3497328009582754","name":"桃李春风益点财","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dc8827e0d2ccb8087a4e15cbe447ad5c","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3497328009582754","authorIdStr":"3497328009582754"},"themes":[],"title":"熊市警报已拉响！谨记五条生存守则！","htmlText":"摘要：股市一路上涨，估值高到爆表。4大熊市指标闪烁！预言是否会成真？熊市一来只能溜？如何才能利用熊市把劣势变优势？怎样避免踩雷？五个生存守则教你在熊市也能浪得飞起！本文聚焦：&nbsp;&nbsp;PART 1:熊市逼近四大迹象，警报已起？&nbsp;&nbsp;PART 2:熊市生存五大守则，稳住别怕！贝瑞研究声明：文中观点基于公开市场信息和历史数据，不作为直接投资建议，仅供交流。图注：图片源自网络，版权属原作者再过几个月，至多几年，股市终会冲顶。如果真的到了那一天，咱们可得备条出路，这样就算股市崩盘也能保住自己的投资组合。但是倒也不必从此就对投资敬而远之。其实，如果对股市走向做到心中有数，说不定还能在熊市大赚一笔呢！今天，我们将总结新一轮经济衰退即将到来的迹象，与各位看官探讨，在股市登顶时我们如何着眼长期发展，并分析美国业界的动作，预示着怎样的经济前景。PART 1:熊市逼近四大迹象，警报已起？纵观历史，一般来说，标普500的熊市持续时间略低于13个月，大约每六年一次。2020年3月，投资者经历了十多年来的首轮熊市，也是史无前例的一轮熊市。短短16天内，标普500指数下跌超20%，但神奇的是，本轮熊市仅仅持续了33天，可以说，这是史上发展最快、历时最短的一次，就像一阵龙卷风，来得快去得也快，但是破坏力极强，所到之处一片狼藉。而罪魁祸首正是新冠疫情。图注：图片源自网络，版权属原作者一波未平一波又起，新一轮熊市，呼之欲出： 上轮熊市之后，紧接着触底反弹，这一反弹不要紧，竟创下了过去15个月以来的历史新高，面对这个势头很多投资者感到情况不妙，人心惶惶。 股市的估值已经升至互联网泡沫时期以来的最高水平。目前席勒市盈率（衡量标普500股票估值的指标）为37.68倍。这个数字比黑色星期一（1987）和黑色星期二（1929）那个当时还要高。如下图所示，席勒市盈率目前的走势在这20年间","listText":"摘要：股市一路上涨，估值高到爆表。4大熊市指标闪烁！预言是否会成真？熊市一来只能溜？如何才能利用熊市把劣势变优势？怎样避免踩雷？五个生存守则教你在熊市也能浪得飞起！本文聚焦：&nbsp;&nbsp;PART 1:熊市逼近四大迹象，警报已起？&nbsp;&nbsp;PART 2:熊市生存五大守则，稳住别怕！贝瑞研究声明：文中观点基于公开市场信息和历史数据，不作为直接投资建议，仅供交流。图注：图片源自网络，版权属原作者再过几个月，至多几年，股市终会冲顶。如果真的到了那一天，咱们可得备条出路，这样就算股市崩盘也能保住自己的投资组合。但是倒也不必从此就对投资敬而远之。其实，如果对股市走向做到心中有数，说不定还能在熊市大赚一笔呢！今天，我们将总结新一轮经济衰退即将到来的迹象，与各位看官探讨，在股市登顶时我们如何着眼长期发展，并分析美国业界的动作，预示着怎样的经济前景。PART 1:熊市逼近四大迹象，警报已起？纵观历史，一般来说，标普500的熊市持续时间略低于13个月，大约每六年一次。2020年3月，投资者经历了十多年来的首轮熊市，也是史无前例的一轮熊市。短短16天内，标普500指数下跌超20%，但神奇的是，本轮熊市仅仅持续了33天，可以说，这是史上发展最快、历时最短的一次，就像一阵龙卷风，来得快去得也快，但是破坏力极强，所到之处一片狼藉。而罪魁祸首正是新冠疫情。图注：图片源自网络，版权属原作者一波未平一波又起，新一轮熊市，呼之欲出： 上轮熊市之后，紧接着触底反弹，这一反弹不要紧，竟创下了过去15个月以来的历史新高，面对这个势头很多投资者感到情况不妙，人心惶惶。 股市的估值已经升至互联网泡沫时期以来的最高水平。目前席勒市盈率（衡量标普500股票估值的指标）为37.68倍。这个数字比黑色星期一（1987）和黑色星期二（1929）那个当时还要高。如下图所示，席勒市盈率目前的走势在这20年间","text":"摘要：股市一路上涨，估值高到爆表。4大熊市指标闪烁！预言是否会成真？熊市一来只能溜？如何才能利用熊市把劣势变优势？怎样避免踩雷？五个生存守则教你在熊市也能浪得飞起！本文聚焦： PART 1:熊市逼近四大迹象，警报已起？ PART 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23:07","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"中概教育股集体拉升，好未来涨12%、掌门教育涨15%","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1111000814","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"周五，部分热门中概教育股于盘中直线拉升，截至发稿，好未来涨超12%、掌门教育涨超15%，高途涨6%。\n\n消息面上，近日，教育部发布了《关于支持探索开展暑期托管服务的通知》（以下简称《通知》），支持有条","content":"<p>周五，部分热门中概教育股于盘中直线拉升，截至发稿，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TAL\">好未来</a>涨超12%、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ZME\">掌门教育</a>涨超15%，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GOTU\">高途</a>涨6%。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/53f5d7c6b59adb40d33cc888b555beb8\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>消息面上，近日，教育部发布了《关于支持探索开展暑期托管服务的通知》（以下简称《通知》），支持有条件的地方开展暑期托管服务工作。</p>\n<p>《通知》明确，暑期托管服务坚持学生自愿参加，要求合理安排暑期托管服务内容，应以看护为主，开放教室、图书馆、运动场馆等资源设施，合理组织提供一些集体游戏活动、文体活动、阅读指导、综合实践、兴趣拓展、作业辅导等服务，不得组织集体补课、讲授新课。同时，暑期托管服务可参照课后服务相关政策，采取财政补贴、收取服务性收费或代收费等方式筹措经费，收费标准由地方教育部门商有关主管部门制定。</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>中概教育股集体拉升，好未来涨12%、掌门教育涨15%</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n中概教育股集体拉升，好未来涨12%、掌门教育涨15%\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2021-07-09 23:07</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>周五，部分热门中概教育股于盘中直线拉升，截至发稿，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TAL\">好未来</a>涨超12%、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ZME\">掌门教育</a>涨超15%，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GOTU\">高途</a>涨6%。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/53f5d7c6b59adb40d33cc888b555beb8\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>消息面上，近日，教育部发布了《关于支持探索开展暑期托管服务的通知》（以下简称《通知》），支持有条件的地方开展暑期托管服务工作。</p>\n<p>《通知》明确，暑期托管服务坚持学生自愿参加，要求合理安排暑期托管服务内容，应以看护为主，开放教室、图书馆、运动场馆等资源设施，合理组织提供一些集体游戏活动、文体活动、阅读指导、综合实践、兴趣拓展、作业辅导等服务，不得组织集体补课、讲授新课。同时，暑期托管服务可参照课后服务相关政策，采取财政补贴、收取服务性收费或代收费等方式筹措经费，收费标准由地方教育部门商有关主管部门制定。</p>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9730389e2c12f92286a75c147f1ce1db","relate_stocks":{"TAL":"好未来","ZME":"掌门教育"},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1111000814","content_text":"周五，部分热门中概教育股于盘中直线拉升，截至发稿，好未来涨超12%、掌门教育涨超15%，高途涨6%。\n\n消息面上，近日，教育部发布了《关于支持探索开展暑期托管服务的通知》（以下简称《通知》），支持有条件的地方开展暑期托管服务工作。\n《通知》明确，暑期托管服务坚持学生自愿参加，要求合理安排暑期托管服务内容，应以看护为主，开放教室、图书馆、运动场馆等资源设施，合理组织提供一些集体游戏活动、文体活动、阅读指导、综合实践、兴趣拓展、作业辅导等服务，不得组织集体补课、讲授新课。同时，暑期托管服务可参照课后服务相关政策，采取财政补贴、收取服务性收费或代收费等方式筹措经费，收费标准由地方教育部门商有关主管部门制定。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":547,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":363269199,"gmtCreate":1614143015711,"gmtModify":1614143015711,"author":{"id":"3576640463093459","authorId":"3576640463093459","name":"罗素London","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9969255f02bcdd16ca31ef33facd48df","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3576640463093459","idStr":"3576640463093459"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"目前，HK金融业一支独放，其他服务业惨不忍睹。提高税率，增加财政收入。","listText":"目前，HK金融业一支独放，其他服务业惨不忍睹。提高税率，增加财政收入。","text":"目前，HK金融业一支独放，其他服务业惨不忍睹。提高税率，增加财政收入。","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":8,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/363269199","repostId":"1181116380","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1181116380","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据，旨在帮助投资者理解世界，做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1614141715,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1181116380?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-02-24 12:41","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"香港计划将股票交易印花税从0.1%上调至0.13%","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1181116380","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"周三午后开盘，受香港计划提高股票交易印花税消息的影响，港股市场全线下挫，南向资金午后净卖出达100亿元！$香港交易所$股价直线下挫，一度跌超12%，为2015年来最大跌幅！同时，恒生指数跌2.7%，恒生科技指数跌超5%。消息面上，香港特区政府财政司司长陈茂波宣布：香港计划将股票交易印花税由目前的0.1%提高至0.13%。从全球来看，香港是仍对股票交易征税的少数主要市场之一。","content":"<p>周三午后开盘，受香港计划提高股票交易印花税消息的影响，港股市场全线下挫，<b>南向资金午后净卖出达100亿元！</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/889e6d95357d7d8d524e8cba6bb8ec22\" tg-width=\"353\" tg-height=\"440\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00388\">香港交易所</a>股价直线下挫，一度跌超12%，<b>为2015年来最大跌幅！</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/30e9b87e00e34cb5f8176432829456fa\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>同时，恒生指数跌2.7%，恒生科技指数跌超5%。恒生科技指数成分股齐挫，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/02013\">微盟集团</a>跌超9%，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/03888\">金山软件</a>跌超10%，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/01024\">快手</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/02400\">心动公司</a>跌超8%。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bed475e4bf45f9028e898c0a780e0d1c\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>消息面上，香港特区政府财政司司长陈茂波宣布：香港计划将股票交易印花税由目前的0.1%提高至0.13%。</b></p><p>陈茂波表示：我们充分考虑对证券市场和国际竞争力的影响后，决定提交法案调整股票印花税税率，由现时买卖双方按交易金额各付百分之零点一，提高至百分之零点一三。政府将继续全力推行各项发展证券市场的措施，将香港的金融业发展至更高的台阶。</p><p>受当前的经济环境及疫情影响，企业和市民普遍仍面对相当的财政压力。我认为目前不适宜调整作为政府主要收入来源的利得税及薪俸税税率。不过，政府会持续审视，在适当时作出调整。</p><p>2020／21年度，政府收入的修订预算为五千四百三十五亿元，较原来预算低百分之五点一，即二百九十亿元，主因是地价的收入较预期少。印花税收入预算为九百二十亿元，较上年度修订预算上升百分之十六点五。</p><p><b>相关背景</b></p><p>早在2017年10月份，港交所有过调整股票交易印花税的传闻，不过当时传港交所要求政府降低甚至取消印花税，以促进股票交易，加强活跃程度。</p><p>从全球来看，香港是仍对股票交易征税的少数主要市场之一。</p><p>美国早在1966年时便停止征收证券交易印花税，德国的该税种也在1991年时停止征收，日本在1999年4月1日取消了包括印花税在内的所有流通票据转让税和交易税，2000年6月30日，新加坡取消股票印花税。</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>香港计划将股票交易印花税从0.1%上调至0.13%</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; 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width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n香港计划将股票交易印花税从0.1%上调至0.13%\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2021-02-24 12:41</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>周三午后开盘，受香港计划提高股票交易印花税消息的影响，港股市场全线下挫，<b>南向资金午后净卖出达100亿元！</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/889e6d95357d7d8d524e8cba6bb8ec22\" tg-width=\"353\" tg-height=\"440\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00388\">香港交易所</a>股价直线下挫，一度跌超12%，<b>为2015年来最大跌幅！</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/30e9b87e00e34cb5f8176432829456fa\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>同时，恒生指数跌2.7%，恒生科技指数跌超5%。恒生科技指数成分股齐挫，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/02013\">微盟集团</a>跌超9%，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/03888\">金山软件</a>跌超10%，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/01024\">快手</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/02400\">心动公司</a>跌超8%。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bed475e4bf45f9028e898c0a780e0d1c\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>消息面上，香港特区政府财政司司长陈茂波宣布：香港计划将股票交易印花税由目前的0.1%提高至0.13%。</b></p><p>陈茂波表示：我们充分考虑对证券市场和国际竞争力的影响后，决定提交法案调整股票印花税税率，由现时买卖双方按交易金额各付百分之零点一，提高至百分之零点一三。政府将继续全力推行各项发展证券市场的措施，将香港的金融业发展至更高的台阶。</p><p>受当前的经济环境及疫情影响，企业和市民普遍仍面对相当的财政压力。我认为目前不适宜调整作为政府主要收入来源的利得税及薪俸税税率。不过，政府会持续审视，在适当时作出调整。</p><p>2020／21年度，政府收入的修订预算为五千四百三十五亿元，较原来预算低百分之五点一，即二百九十亿元，主因是地价的收入较预期少。印花税收入预算为九百二十亿元，较上年度修订预算上升百分之十六点五。</p><p><b>相关背景</b></p><p>早在2017年10月份，港交所有过调整股票交易印花税的传闻，不过当时传港交所要求政府降低甚至取消印花税，以促进股票交易，加强活跃程度。</p><p>从全球来看，香港是仍对股票交易征税的少数主要市场之一。</p><p>美国早在1966年时便停止征收证券交易印花税，德国的该税种也在1991年时停止征收，日本在1999年4月1日取消了包括印花税在内的所有流通票据转让税和交易税，2000年6月30日，新加坡取消股票印花税。</p>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f617bff86cb832841f26dc2719218046","relate_stocks":{"HSI":"恒生指数","00388":"香港交易所"},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1181116380","content_text":"周三午后开盘，受香港计划提高股票交易印花税消息的影响，港股市场全线下挫，南向资金午后净卖出达100亿元！香港交易所股价直线下挫，一度跌超12%，为2015年来最大跌幅！同时，恒生指数跌2.7%，恒生科技指数跌超5%。恒生科技指数成分股齐挫，微盟集团跌超9%，金山软件跌超10%，快手、心动公司跌超8%。消息面上，香港特区政府财政司司长陈茂波宣布：香港计划将股票交易印花税由目前的0.1%提高至0.13%。陈茂波表示：我们充分考虑对证券市场和国际竞争力的影响后，决定提交法案调整股票印花税税率，由现时买卖双方按交易金额各付百分之零点一，提高至百分之零点一三。政府将继续全力推行各项发展证券市场的措施，将香港的金融业发展至更高的台阶。受当前的经济环境及疫情影响，企业和市民普遍仍面对相当的财政压力。我认为目前不适宜调整作为政府主要收入来源的利得税及薪俸税税率。不过，政府会持续审视，在适当时作出调整。2020／21年度，政府收入的修订预算为五千四百三十五亿元，较原来预算低百分之五点一，即二百九十亿元，主因是地价的收入较预期少。印花税收入预算为九百二十亿元，较上年度修订预算上升百分之十六点五。相关背景早在2017年10月份，港交所有过调整股票交易印花税的传闻，不过当时传港交所要求政府降低甚至取消印花税，以促进股票交易，加强活跃程度。从全球来看，香港是仍对股票交易征税的少数主要市场之一。美国早在1966年时便停止征收证券交易印花税，德国的该税种也在1991年时停止征收，日本在1999年4月1日取消了包括印花税在内的所有流通票据转让税和交易税，2000年6月30日，新加坡取消股票印花税。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":308,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":359370109,"gmtCreate":1616369775801,"gmtModify":1616369775801,"author":{"id":"3576640463093459","authorId":"3576640463093459","name":"罗素London","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9969255f02bcdd16ca31ef33facd48df","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3576640463093459","idStr":"3576640463093459"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"赶上了好价格","listText":"赶上了好价格","text":"赶上了好价格","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/359370109","repostId":"2121142587","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2121142587","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据，旨在帮助投资者理解世界，做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1616367060,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2121142587?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-03-22 06:51","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"百度集团-SW一手中签率15%，认购50手稳中一手","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2121142587","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"百度集团-SW(09888.HK)发布公告，公司全球发售9500万股股份，其中香港发售股份1140万股，国际发售股份8360万股，另有15%超额配股权；国际发售与香港公开发售的最终发售价均已确定为每股...","content":"<p>3月22日消息，本周一<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/09888\">百度集团-SW</a>发布公告，公司发行9500万股，每股定价252港元，每手50股，预期3月23日上市。</p><p>按照周五美股<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BIDU\">百度</a>的收盘价257.47美元计算，折合港股价格为252.35港元，港股252港元的定价较隔夜美股<b>折价0.14%。</b><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/513bf0ae34176c2ddf9d143aa4f64d02\" tg-width=\"659\" tg-height=\"548\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>申购阶梯：</b></p><p>甲组每手（50股）入场费约14898.64港元。</p><p>乙组头为400手（20000股），申购所需资金约5,959,454.30港元，获配7手（350股）。<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5ddedf523abdefe87860450864245cce\" tg-width=\"732\" tg-height=\"875\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/36a334f4aadbcffa0fb2ba25128e52ee\" tg-width=\"761\" tg-height=\"705\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BIDU\">百度</a>集团-SW(09888.HK)发布公告，公司全球发售9500万股股份，其中香港发售股份1140万股，国际发售股份8360万股，另有15%超额配股权；国际发售与香港公开发售的最终发售价均已确定为每股发售股份252.00港元，A类普通股每手买卖单位50股；BofA SECURITIES、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600030\">中信证券</a>及<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GS\">高盛</a>为联席保荐人。</p><p>所得款项净额约236.82亿港元将用作以下用途：约50%用作持续科技投资，并且促进以人工智能为主的创新商业化；约40%用作进一步发展百度移动生态，进一步实现多元变现；约10%用作一般公司用途。</p><p>百度成立于2000年，2005年登陆纳斯达克，是拥有强大互联网基础的领先AI公司。成立二十多年的时间里，百度展现了长期增长及强劲的盈利能力。目前，百度核心已形成三大增长引擎，包括成熟稳健的移动生态业务、高速发展的智能云业务、引领行业的智能驾驶及其他增长业务。</p><p>百度自2010年起一直投资AI以提升搜索及变现能力，并使用其核心AI技术引擎百度大脑开发新AI业务。公司AI能力的广度和深度为其提供了差异化的技术基础。根据灼识咨询报告，百度大脑的综合技术堆栈及领先的AI能力使公司在中国多个领域都处于领先地位。</p><p>财务数据方面，2020年百度全年营收达到1071亿元，连续三年营收过千亿，净利润达到190.26亿元人民币。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/14c942dd1c3003dd1d52f6234f143ad9\" tg-width=\"673\" tg-height=\"527\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>行业方面，中国知识信息型互联网平台广告的市场规模由2015年的人民币896亿元增至2019年的人民币1736亿元，复合年增长率为18%。市场规模预期于2025年达到人民币3420亿元，2019年至2025年的复合年增长率为12%。而按<b>收入及用户数目计，百度是过去十年中国第一的搜索引擎，按MAU及DAU计，亦是2020年12月中国第一的搜索加信息流应用程序。</b></p><p>中国已成为世界上云服务增长最快的市场之一，中国公有云服务行业市场规模由2015年的人民币101亿元增至2019年的人民币864亿元，复合年增长率为71.1%，预期将增至2025年的人民币5,771亿元，2019年至2025年的复合年增长率为37.2%。而<b>按2020年产品组合及开发者使用的API计，百度智能云是中国最大的AI公有云，成为该赛道的市场领导者。</b></p><p>中国智能驾驶行业有巨大增长潜力。中国自动驾驶服务市场规模预期将由2019年的人民币23亿元增至2025年的人民币3,994亿元，期间复合年增长率为136.2%。截至2020年12月31日，<b>中国自动驾驶领导者百度Apollo已取得最多自动驾驶许可证，且拥有最长累计测试里程。</b></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>百度集团-SW一手中签率15%，认购50手稳中一手</title>\n<style 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}\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n百度集团-SW一手中签率15%，认购50手稳中一手\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2021-03-22 06:51</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>3月22日消息，本周一<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/09888\">百度集团-SW</a>发布公告，公司发行9500万股，每股定价252港元，每手50股，预期3月23日上市。</p><p>按照周五美股<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BIDU\">百度</a>的收盘价257.47美元计算，折合港股价格为252.35港元，港股252港元的定价较隔夜美股<b>折价0.14%。</b><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/513bf0ae34176c2ddf9d143aa4f64d02\" tg-width=\"659\" tg-height=\"548\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>申购阶梯：</b></p><p>甲组每手（50股）入场费约14898.64港元。</p><p>乙组头为400手（20000股），申购所需资金约5,959,454.30港元，获配7手（350股）。<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5ddedf523abdefe87860450864245cce\" tg-width=\"732\" tg-height=\"875\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/36a334f4aadbcffa0fb2ba25128e52ee\" tg-width=\"761\" tg-height=\"705\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BIDU\">百度</a>集团-SW(09888.HK)发布公告，公司全球发售9500万股股份，其中香港发售股份1140万股，国际发售股份8360万股，另有15%超额配股权；国际发售与香港公开发售的最终发售价均已确定为每股发售股份252.00港元，A类普通股每手买卖单位50股；BofA SECURITIES、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600030\">中信证券</a>及<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GS\">高盛</a>为联席保荐人。</p><p>所得款项净额约236.82亿港元将用作以下用途：约50%用作持续科技投资，并且促进以人工智能为主的创新商业化；约40%用作进一步发展百度移动生态，进一步实现多元变现；约10%用作一般公司用途。</p><p>百度成立于2000年，2005年登陆纳斯达克，是拥有强大互联网基础的领先AI公司。成立二十多年的时间里，百度展现了长期增长及强劲的盈利能力。目前，百度核心已形成三大增长引擎，包括成熟稳健的移动生态业务、高速发展的智能云业务、引领行业的智能驾驶及其他增长业务。</p><p>百度自2010年起一直投资AI以提升搜索及变现能力，并使用其核心AI技术引擎百度大脑开发新AI业务。公司AI能力的广度和深度为其提供了差异化的技术基础。根据灼识咨询报告，百度大脑的综合技术堆栈及领先的AI能力使公司在中国多个领域都处于领先地位。</p><p>财务数据方面，2020年百度全年营收达到1071亿元，连续三年营收过千亿，净利润达到190.26亿元人民币。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/14c942dd1c3003dd1d52f6234f143ad9\" tg-width=\"673\" tg-height=\"527\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>行业方面，中国知识信息型互联网平台广告的市场规模由2015年的人民币896亿元增至2019年的人民币1736亿元，复合年增长率为18%。市场规模预期于2025年达到人民币3420亿元，2019年至2025年的复合年增长率为12%。而按<b>收入及用户数目计，百度是过去十年中国第一的搜索引擎，按MAU及DAU计，亦是2020年12月中国第一的搜索加信息流应用程序。</b></p><p>中国已成为世界上云服务增长最快的市场之一，中国公有云服务行业市场规模由2015年的人民币101亿元增至2019年的人民币864亿元，复合年增长率为71.1%，预期将增至2025年的人民币5,771亿元，2019年至2025年的复合年增长率为37.2%。而<b>按2020年产品组合及开发者使用的API计，百度智能云是中国最大的AI公有云，成为该赛道的市场领导者。</b></p><p>中国智能驾驶行业有巨大增长潜力。中国自动驾驶服务市场规模预期将由2019年的人民币23亿元增至2025年的人民币3,994亿元，期间复合年增长率为136.2%。截至2020年12月31日，<b>中国自动驾驶领导者百度Apollo已取得最多自动驾驶许可证，且拥有最长累计测试里程。</b></p>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3d671f82579a0f7a86039a21fe8fc002","relate_stocks":{"QNETCN":"纳斯达克中美互联网老虎指数","BIDU":"百度","09888":"百度集团-SW"},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2121142587","content_text":"3月22日消息，本周一百度集团-SW发布公告，公司发行9500万股，每股定价252港元，每手50股，预期3月23日上市。按照周五美股百度的收盘价257.47美元计算，折合港股价格为252.35港元，港股252港元的定价较隔夜美股折价0.14%。申购阶梯：甲组每手（50股）入场费约14898.64港元。乙组头为400手（20000股），申购所需资金约5,959,454.30港元，获配7手（350股）。百度集团-SW(09888.HK)发布公告，公司全球发售9500万股股份，其中香港发售股份1140万股，国际发售股份8360万股，另有15%超额配股权；国际发售与香港公开发售的最终发售价均已确定为每股发售股份252.00港元，A类普通股每手买卖单位50股；BofA 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07:54","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"从纳斯达克到港交所，B站和青年一代的文化认同","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2120116018","media":"投资者网","summary":"从纳斯达克到港交所，B站和青年一代的文化认同3月18日，哔哩哔哩(B站)回港二次上市正式开启招股，首日认购火爆，认购倍数为25.05倍。Z+世代与飞奔的营收与2018年在纳斯达克上市时相比，B站的主要经营数据也有了大幅改善。B站公布的聆讯后资料集显示，2019年“Z+世代”贡献了超过65%的视频市场收入。据了解，B站的电商销售的产品主要是动漫、游戏周边。自2018年3月28日上市至今，B站的股价累计涨幅超800%。","content":"<p>3月18日，哔哩哔哩（B站）回港二次上市正式开启招股，首日认购火爆，认购倍数为25.05倍。而前一日，B站公布了其全球发售的股份在香港联合交易所有限公司主板上市的计划（股票代号：9626），拟在全球发售2500万股。</p>\n<p>B站香港公开发售的发行价将不超过每股988.00港元，或每股Z类普通股127.20美元(相当于每股美国存托股127.20美元)。股份将以每手20股股份为单位进行交易。</p>\n<p>3年前在纳斯达克上市时还被称为“小破站”的B站，在历经多次出圈之后，核心用户群已从“Z世代”（1990-2009出生的人群）扩展至“Z+世代”（1985-2009出生的人群）。</p>\n<p>用户扩容的同时，在PUGV（以专业用户生成视频）为中心、辅以直播、OGV（专业机构生产视频）的发展路径下，B站的视频内容生态越来越多元，平台、用户以及UP主（内容创作者）也因共同的文化认同而紧密联系在一起。</p>\n<p>与2018年在纳斯达克上市时相比，如今的B站，收入结构更加多元，月活跃用户数突破两亿大关，公司营收破百亿。正在走向港交所的，是一个业务模型、商业模型都更加优化的B站。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/892fd87417a282fa76492d561138a02b\" tg-width=\"600\" tg-height=\"337\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p></p>\n<p></p>\n<p></p>\n<p></p>\n<p></p>\n<p></p>\n<p></p>\n<p><b><i>1</i></b></p>\n<p></p>\n<p></p>\n<p></p>\n<p></p>\n<p></p>\n<p><b>与UP主共同成长</b></p>\n<p></p>\n<p></p>\n<p></p>\n<p></p>\n<p></p>\n<p>21世纪虽然是个信息爆炸的时代，但在各种算法的影响下，人们又封闭在一个个的信息孤岛之上。而随着越来越多专业的视频内容创造者的出现，信息、知识、娱乐的主要载体也逐渐由文字转变为了视频。连接起这一个个信息孤岛，为用户提供丰富视频内容的B站成为了年轻人的聚集地。</p>\n<p>与其他视频网站激烈争夺版权内容的需求策略不同，专业机构生产的内容虽然也能满足用户对内容的多元化需求，但存在两个问题明显的问题，成本高，内容生产者和用户缺乏更密切的情感联结。</p>\n<p>被B站视作内容生态的基石的PUGV，创作者则为更具体的人， 内容也更具备个人特质。而早期很多UP主单枪匹马的创作模式，也会内容成本极低，当然时间成本则极高。所以早期的UP主创作，具有典型的“为爱发电”的特征。因此，用户的投币，点赞，评论等正向认可，就变得极其重要。这种激励模式，也构成了B站独特的创作者和消费者关系：UP主以内容吸引粉丝，与粉丝的互动再激励UP主继续创作用户感兴趣的内容，从而形成正反馈循环。</p>\n<p>随着用户的成长，越来越多的兴趣内容开始在B站生根发芽，发展壮大，并逐渐生产出了如影视、游戏、美食等众多不同类型的视频内容。如今，B站的内容品类已从最初ACG内容，拓展至更多元的内容品类，覆盖了7000余个圈层。2020年第四季度，生活、游戏、娱乐、动漫、科技和知识成为B站最受用户欢迎的垂直品类，知识类内容也是2020年B站增长最快的内容品类之一，到B站学习已不是一句玩笑。</p>\n<p>而B站也已成为国内最大的以PUGV为主的创意视频提供平台。聆讯后资料集显示，2020年第四季度，PUGV视频播放量已占B站全平台视频播放量91%。出现了一批类似于“罗翔说刑法”、“木鱼水心”、“黑桐谷歌”等知识类、影视类以及游戏类不同类型的UP主。</p>\n<p>其中法律科普UP主“罗翔”早已出圈，其演讲内容经常被诸多媒体或视频所引用，目前“罗翔”在B站的粉丝数已超过1300万。主要制作影视类视频的“木鱼水心”也拥有近700万关注，其制作的个别视频播放量近千万；而主要制作游戏视频的“黑桐谷歌”，关注数近300万，个别视频播放量超千万。</p>\n<p>2020年第四季度，B站月均活跃UP主数量同比增长88%，达到190万，月均视频投稿量同比增长109％，达590万。</p>\n<p></p>\n<p></p>\n<p></p>\n<p></p>\n<p></p>\n<p></p>\n<p></p>\n<p><b><i>2</i></b></p>\n<p></p>\n<p></p>\n<p></p>\n<p></p>\n<p></p>\n<p><b>Z+世代与飞奔的营收</b></p>\n<p></p>\n<p></p>\n<p></p>\n<p></p>\n<p></p>\n<p>与2018年在纳斯达克上市时相比，B站的主要经营数据也有了大幅改善。2018年前2个月，B站的平均月活跃用户仅有7640万人，而到了2020年第四季度，B站的月活跃用户数已达到了2.02亿人，三年间增长了一倍多。B站越来越被“Z世代”之外的人所了解、接受，B站也逐渐由“Z世代”走进“Z+世代”。</p>\n<p>除了月活跃用户数大幅增加外，B站与用户的粘性也有所提升。2017年B站活跃用户在线时长为76分钟，到2020年B站用户平均花费在移动应用上的时间增加到了80分钟以上，成为国内用户使用时长最长的移动应用之一，远高于行业平均的29.8分钟。在用户使用时长增加的同时，B站用户的互动情况也大幅提升，2020年B站平均每月产生51亿次互动，2019年这一数字仅有21亿次。</p>\n<p>如何将流量变现其实是诸多互联网企业所面临的难题，与别的视频网站用户群体分化的情况不同，B站的用户群体主要是接受过良好教育、对高质量内容以及自我表达有着强烈需求的“Z+世代”，是目前消费增长的重要驱动力。艾瑞咨询研究显示，“Z+世代”是目前国内各类消费增长的驱动力及潮流引导者，各类新兴消费品牌也围绕着“Z+世代”的消费偏好进行打造。</p>\n<p>而且，“Z+世代”更愿意为视频内容付费。B站公布的聆讯后资料集显示，2019年“Z+世代”贡献了超过65%的视频市场收入。以“Z+世代”为核心群体的B站近5年来营收增长了90.60倍，年均复合增长率高达146.82%。2020年，B站实现营业总收入为120亿元人民币， 营收增速明显高于同业公司。</p>\n<p>收入大幅增长的同时，B站的收入结构也有明显改善，2018年公司收入的71.1%来自于移动游戏，到了2020年，移动游戏在公司收入中的占比已下降到了40%；而会员付费的增值服务收入、以及电商及其他服务在公司营收中的占比越来越重。据了解，B站的电商销售的产品主要是动漫、游戏周边。这是一个巨大的市场，成就了诸如万代这类行业小巨人。</p>\n<p>增值服务收入、广告收入以及电商及其他服务收入的增加，无疑大幅改善了B站收入依赖移动游戏的现状。在多元化收入的支撑下，B站单个月活用户的月均收入由2018年的4元增长到了2020年的5.4元，涨幅高达35%。</p>\n<p>正如B站所说，“我们的使命是丰富中国年轻一代的日常生活”。B站自成立以来，为年轻一代人提供娱乐、学习、交流沟通平台的初心一直没变，变的只有更丰富的内容、更开放的社区、更多元化的用户。在这过程中，公司也得到了市场的广泛认可，公司股价持续上涨。自2018年3月28日上市至今，B站的股价累计涨幅超800%。如果考虑到截至目前的最高股价，B站还曾最高上涨到157.66美元/股，较发行价上涨高达12.7倍，是中概股中少见的“三年十倍”Tenbagger。目前，B站总市值已超400亿美元。</p>","source":"lsy1577406660637","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>从纳斯达克到港交所，B站和青年一代的文化认同</title>\n<style 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margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n从纳斯达克到港交所，B站和青年一代的文化认同\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-03-20 07:54 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=http://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/Xg9LhH1OIbv_R4vwR0zy6Q><strong>投资者网</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>3月18日，哔哩哔哩（B站）回港二次上市正式开启招股，首日认购火爆，认购倍数为25.05倍。而前一日，B站公布了其全球发售的股份在香港联合交易所有限公司主板上市的计划（股票代号：9626），拟在全球发售2500万股。\nB站香港公开发售的发行价将不超过每股988.00港元，或每股Z类普通股127.20美元(相当于每股美国存托股127.20美元)。股份将以每手20股股份为单位进行交易。\n3年前在...</p>\n\n<a href=\"http://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/Xg9LhH1OIbv_R4vwR0zy6Q\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/959e12dad805ef7134e41190825f878a","relate_stocks":{"BILI":"哔哩哔哩","00388":"香港交易所","09626":"哔哩哔哩-W"},"source_url":"http://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/Xg9LhH1OIbv_R4vwR0zy6Q","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2120116018","content_text":"3月18日，哔哩哔哩（B站）回港二次上市正式开启招股，首日认购火爆，认购倍数为25.05倍。而前一日，B站公布了其全球发售的股份在香港联合交易所有限公司主板上市的计划（股票代号：9626），拟在全球发售2500万股。\nB站香港公开发售的发行价将不超过每股988.00港元，或每股Z类普通股127.20美元(相当于每股美国存托股127.20美元)。股份将以每手20股股份为单位进行交易。\n3年前在纳斯达克上市时还被称为“小破站”的B站，在历经多次出圈之后，核心用户群已从“Z世代”（1990-2009出生的人群）扩展至“Z+世代”（1985-2009出生的人群）。\n用户扩容的同时，在PUGV（以专业用户生成视频）为中心、辅以直播、OGV（专业机构生产视频）的发展路径下，B站的视频内容生态越来越多元，平台、用户以及UP主（内容创作者）也因共同的文化认同而紧密联系在一起。\n与2018年在纳斯达克上市时相比，如今的B站，收入结构更加多元，月活跃用户数突破两亿大关，公司营收破百亿。正在走向港交所的，是一个业务模型、商业模型都更加优化的B站。\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n1\n\n\n\n\n\n与UP主共同成长\n\n\n\n\n\n21世纪虽然是个信息爆炸的时代，但在各种算法的影响下，人们又封闭在一个个的信息孤岛之上。而随着越来越多专业的视频内容创造者的出现，信息、知识、娱乐的主要载体也逐渐由文字转变为了视频。连接起这一个个信息孤岛，为用户提供丰富视频内容的B站成为了年轻人的聚集地。\n与其他视频网站激烈争夺版权内容的需求策略不同，专业机构生产的内容虽然也能满足用户对内容的多元化需求，但存在两个问题明显的问题，成本高，内容生产者和用户缺乏更密切的情感联结。\n被B站视作内容生态的基石的PUGV，创作者则为更具体的人， 内容也更具备个人特质。而早期很多UP主单枪匹马的创作模式，也会内容成本极低，当然时间成本则极高。所以早期的UP主创作，具有典型的“为爱发电”的特征。因此，用户的投币，点赞，评论等正向认可，就变得极其重要。这种激励模式，也构成了B站独特的创作者和消费者关系：UP主以内容吸引粉丝，与粉丝的互动再激励UP主继续创作用户感兴趣的内容，从而形成正反馈循环。\n随着用户的成长，越来越多的兴趣内容开始在B站生根发芽，发展壮大，并逐渐生产出了如影视、游戏、美食等众多不同类型的视频内容。如今，B站的内容品类已从最初ACG内容，拓展至更多元的内容品类，覆盖了7000余个圈层。2020年第四季度，生活、游戏、娱乐、动漫、科技和知识成为B站最受用户欢迎的垂直品类，知识类内容也是2020年B站增长最快的内容品类之一，到B站学习已不是一句玩笑。\n而B站也已成为国内最大的以PUGV为主的创意视频提供平台。聆讯后资料集显示，2020年第四季度，PUGV视频播放量已占B站全平台视频播放量91%。出现了一批类似于“罗翔说刑法”、“木鱼水心”、“黑桐谷歌”等知识类、影视类以及游戏类不同类型的UP主。\n其中法律科普UP主“罗翔”早已出圈，其演讲内容经常被诸多媒体或视频所引用，目前“罗翔”在B站的粉丝数已超过1300万。主要制作影视类视频的“木鱼水心”也拥有近700万关注，其制作的个别视频播放量近千万；而主要制作游戏视频的“黑桐谷歌”，关注数近300万，个别视频播放量超千万。\n2020年第四季度，B站月均活跃UP主数量同比增长88%，达到190万，月均视频投稿量同比增长109％，达590万。\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n2\n\n\n\n\n\nZ+世代与飞奔的营收\n\n\n\n\n\n与2018年在纳斯达克上市时相比，B站的主要经营数据也有了大幅改善。2018年前2个月，B站的平均月活跃用户仅有7640万人，而到了2020年第四季度，B站的月活跃用户数已达到了2.02亿人，三年间增长了一倍多。B站越来越被“Z世代”之外的人所了解、接受，B站也逐渐由“Z世代”走进“Z+世代”。\n除了月活跃用户数大幅增加外，B站与用户的粘性也有所提升。2017年B站活跃用户在线时长为76分钟，到2020年B站用户平均花费在移动应用上的时间增加到了80分钟以上，成为国内用户使用时长最长的移动应用之一，远高于行业平均的29.8分钟。在用户使用时长增加的同时，B站用户的互动情况也大幅提升，2020年B站平均每月产生51亿次互动，2019年这一数字仅有21亿次。\n如何将流量变现其实是诸多互联网企业所面临的难题，与别的视频网站用户群体分化的情况不同，B站的用户群体主要是接受过良好教育、对高质量内容以及自我表达有着强烈需求的“Z+世代”，是目前消费增长的重要驱动力。艾瑞咨询研究显示，“Z+世代”是目前国内各类消费增长的驱动力及潮流引导者，各类新兴消费品牌也围绕着“Z+世代”的消费偏好进行打造。\n而且，“Z+世代”更愿意为视频内容付费。B站公布的聆讯后资料集显示，2019年“Z+世代”贡献了超过65%的视频市场收入。以“Z+世代”为核心群体的B站近5年来营收增长了90.60倍，年均复合增长率高达146.82%。2020年，B站实现营业总收入为120亿元人民币， 营收增速明显高于同业公司。\n收入大幅增长的同时，B站的收入结构也有明显改善，2018年公司收入的71.1%来自于移动游戏，到了2020年，移动游戏在公司收入中的占比已下降到了40%；而会员付费的增值服务收入、以及电商及其他服务在公司营收中的占比越来越重。据了解，B站的电商销售的产品主要是动漫、游戏周边。这是一个巨大的市场，成就了诸如万代这类行业小巨人。\n增值服务收入、广告收入以及电商及其他服务收入的增加，无疑大幅改善了B站收入依赖移动游戏的现状。在多元化收入的支撑下，B站单个月活用户的月均收入由2018年的4元增长到了2020年的5.4元，涨幅高达35%。\n正如B站所说，“我们的使命是丰富中国年轻一代的日常生活”。B站自成立以来，为年轻一代人提供娱乐、学习、交流沟通平台的初心一直没变，变的只有更丰富的内容、更开放的社区、更多元化的用户。在这过程中，公司也得到了市场的广泛认可，公司股价持续上涨。自2018年3月28日上市至今，B站的股价累计涨幅超800%。如果考虑到截至目前的最高股价，B站还曾最高上涨到157.66美元/股，较发行价上涨高达12.7倍，是中概股中少见的“三年十倍”Tenbagger。目前，B站总市值已超400亿美元。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":196,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}