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Fuffywumps

Fuffywumps

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2021-02-24

Wohoooo

The RealReal Missed On Earnings, But Analysts See Hope As Economy Reopens

2021-02-23

$Palantir Technologies Inc.(PLTR)$Hopefully 🙏

2021-02-17

Hm

Index funds don’t buy IPOs but here’s why they should

2021-02-17

Another chance?

2021-02-09

Good

抱歉，原内容已删除

2021-02-09

Will it go higher?

2021-02-09

Good read

Here’s What the GameStop Affair Has Taught Us

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Market Quotes, Business News, Financial News, Trading Ideas, and Stock Research by Professionals","home_visible":0,"media_name":"Benzinga","id":"1052270027","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d08bf7808052c0ca9deb4e944cae32aa"},"pubTimestamp":1614138972,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2113835326?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-02-24 11:56","market":"us","language":"en","title":"The RealReal Missed On Earnings, But Analysts See Hope As Economy Reopens","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2113835326","media":"Benzinga","summary":"RealReal Inc (NASDAQ:REAL) shares were trading lower Tuesday after the company reported earnings tha","content":"<p><b>RealReal Inc</b>&nbsp;(NASDAQ:REAL) shares were trading lower Tuesday after the company reported earnings that missed expectations.</p>\n<p>On Monday, the RealReal&nbsp;reported a fourth-quarter adjusted loss of 49 cents per share, missing the Street estimate by eight cents. The company&nbsp;reported revenue of $84.6 million, down 13.09% compared to the same period last year, missing the Street estimate of $94 million.</p>\n<p>RealReal saw declining revenues in 2020 brought on by the pandemic but is optimistic it will continue to grow its business as the economy continues to reopen.</p>\n<p>“We are seeing encouraging signs of recovery, with December GMV back to growth and quarter-to-date trends even stronger,” Julie Wainwright, founder, CEO and&nbsp;chairperson of the RealReal said on a conference call.</p>\n<p>The luxury consignment store, which has an online and brick-and-mortar footprint, plans to open 10 new stores in 2021.</p>\n<p><b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/REAL\">The RealReal</a>’s Expansion Costs:</b> Although analysts expect the RealReal&nbsp;to improve its revenue growth&nbsp;as it expands its vendors, “We do see higher costs across the board in '21 given: 1) The rollout of 10 neighborhood stores, 2) the opening of the new Arizona authentication center, 3) investments in technology, and 4) increased sales hiring ahead of the expected demand increase,” <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MSTLW\">Morgan Stanley</a> analyst Lauren Schenk said in a note.</p>\n<p>Although Raymond James analyst Aaron Kessler believes the RealReal&nbsp;may struggle in the near-term, due to the high costs of its business expansion plans, he remains positive on the company’s fundamentals long-term.</p>\n<p>“Elevated near-term expenses (new Arizona facility, retail expansion) will likely weigh on street EBITDA estimates though they should position the company for stronger long-term growth and operating leverage,” the analyst said.</p>\n<p><b>The RealReal's Position As The Economy Reopens:</b> “We see REAL as <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE\">one</a> of the ecommerce names most levered to the reopening given not only its end market demand (luxury/apparel), but also its supply dynamics,” Schenk said.</p>\n<p>KeyBanc analyst Edward Yruma sees increased revenue coming from the RealReal&nbsp;planned opening of the new brick-and-mortar stores in 2021.</p>\n<p>“Neighborhood stores should serve as effective marketing tools not only for increasing supply, but also for attracting new buyers,” the analyst said</p>\n<p>Needham analyst Rick Patel believes revenue will accelerate over the next few quarters as customers return to consigning, which will help the RealReal&nbsp;boost its inventory.</p>\n<p>“Over the past year, REAL has been more supply constrained than demand constrained. When the pandemic began, supply units were (46%) in April ’20 but are now on an improving trend with 4Q20 units +13%,” the analyst said.</p>\n<p>Raymond James analyst Kessler believes the recovery is priced in.</p>\n<p>“While we remain positive on long-term fundamentals (large luxury goods market shifting online, 25% longterm growth outlook, 20%+ long-term EBITDA margins), we believe risk reward is more balanced at current levels,” the analyst said.</p>\n<p><b>The RealReal Ratings, Price Targets:</b>&nbsp;KeyBanc maintained its Overweight rating and price target of $32.</p>\n<p>Morgan Stanley maintained its Equal-weight rating and increased its price target from $17 to $25.</p>\n<p>Needham maintained a Hold rating.</p>\n<p>Raymond James downgraded its rating from Outperform to Market Perform and maintained a price target of $17.</p>\n<p>RealReal's stock closed down 13.32% at $24.82 per share.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4b9d9d0ea8ca2f4768fd7d380c08ef7a\" tg-width=\"1051\" tg-height=\"243\"></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>The RealReal Missed On Earnings, But Analysts See Hope As Economy Reopens</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nThe RealReal Missed On Earnings, But Analysts See Hope As Economy Reopens\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<div class=\"head\" \">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/d08bf7808052c0ca9deb4e944cae32aa);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Benzinga </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2021-02-24 11:56</p>\n</div>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>RealReal Inc</b>&nbsp;(NASDAQ:REAL) shares were trading lower Tuesday after the company reported earnings that missed expectations.</p>\n<p>On Monday, the RealReal&nbsp;reported a fourth-quarter adjusted loss of 49 cents per share, missing the Street estimate by eight cents. The company&nbsp;reported revenue of $84.6 million, down 13.09% compared to the same period last year, missing the Street estimate of $94 million.</p>\n<p>RealReal saw declining revenues in 2020 brought on by the pandemic but is optimistic it will continue to grow its business as the economy continues to reopen.</p>\n<p>“We are seeing encouraging signs of recovery, with December GMV back to growth and quarter-to-date trends even stronger,” Julie Wainwright, founder, CEO and&nbsp;chairperson of the RealReal said on a conference call.</p>\n<p>The luxury consignment store, which has an online and brick-and-mortar footprint, plans to open 10 new stores in 2021.</p>\n<p><b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/REAL\">The RealReal</a>’s Expansion Costs:</b> Although analysts expect the RealReal&nbsp;to improve its revenue growth&nbsp;as it expands its vendors, “We do see higher costs across the board in '21 given: 1) The rollout of 10 neighborhood stores, 2) the opening of the new Arizona authentication center, 3) investments in technology, and 4) increased sales hiring ahead of the expected demand increase,” <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MSTLW\">Morgan Stanley</a> analyst Lauren Schenk said in a note.</p>\n<p>Although Raymond James analyst Aaron Kessler believes the RealReal&nbsp;may struggle in the near-term, due to the high costs of its business expansion plans, he remains positive on the company’s fundamentals long-term.</p>\n<p>“Elevated near-term expenses (new Arizona facility, retail expansion) will likely weigh on street EBITDA estimates though they should position the company for stronger long-term growth and operating leverage,” the analyst said.</p>\n<p><b>The RealReal's Position As The Economy Reopens:</b> “We see REAL as <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE\">one</a> of the ecommerce names most levered to the reopening given not only its end market demand (luxury/apparel), but also its supply dynamics,” Schenk said.</p>\n<p>KeyBanc analyst Edward Yruma sees increased revenue coming from the RealReal&nbsp;planned opening of the new brick-and-mortar stores in 2021.</p>\n<p>“Neighborhood stores should serve as effective marketing tools not only for increasing supply, but also for attracting new buyers,” the analyst said</p>\n<p>Needham analyst Rick Patel believes revenue will accelerate over the next few quarters as customers return to consigning, which will help the RealReal&nbsp;boost its inventory.</p>\n<p>“Over the past year, REAL has been more supply constrained than demand constrained. When the pandemic began, supply units were (46%) in April ’20 but are now on an improving trend with 4Q20 units +13%,” the analyst said.</p>\n<p>Raymond James analyst Kessler believes the recovery is priced in.</p>\n<p>“While we remain positive on long-term fundamentals (large luxury goods market shifting online, 25% longterm growth outlook, 20%+ long-term EBITDA margins), we believe risk reward is more balanced at current levels,” the analyst said.</p>\n<p><b>The RealReal Ratings, Price Targets:</b>&nbsp;KeyBanc maintained its Overweight rating and price target of $32.</p>\n<p>Morgan Stanley maintained its Equal-weight rating and increased its price target from $17 to $25.</p>\n<p>Needham maintained a Hold rating.</p>\n<p>Raymond James downgraded its rating from Outperform to Market Perform and maintained a price target of $17.</p>\n<p>RealReal's stock closed down 13.32% at $24.82 per share.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4b9d9d0ea8ca2f4768fd7d380c08ef7a\" tg-width=\"1051\" tg-height=\"243\"></p>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"REAL":"The RealReal"},"is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2113835326","content_text":"RealReal Inc (NASDAQ:REAL) shares were trading lower Tuesday after the company reported earnings that missed expectations.\nOn Monday, the RealReal reported a fourth-quarter adjusted loss of 49 cents per share, missing the Street estimate by eight cents. The company reported revenue of $84.6 million, down 13.09% compared to the same period last year, missing the Street estimate of $94 million.\nRealReal saw declining revenues in 2020 brought on by the pandemic but is optimistic it will continue to grow its business as the economy continues to reopen.\n“We are seeing encouraging signs of recovery, with December GMV back to growth and quarter-to-date trends even stronger,” Julie Wainwright, founder, CEO and chairperson of the RealReal said on a conference call.\nThe luxury consignment store, which has an online and brick-and-mortar footprint, plans to open 10 new stores in 2021.\nThe RealReal’s Expansion Costs: Although analysts expect the RealReal to improve its revenue growth as it expands its vendors, “We do see higher costs across the board in '21 given: 1) The rollout of 10 neighborhood stores, 2) the opening of the new Arizona authentication center, 3) investments in technology, and 4) increased sales hiring ahead of the expected demand increase,” Morgan Stanley analyst Lauren Schenk said in a note.\nAlthough Raymond James analyst Aaron Kessler believes the RealReal may struggle in the near-term, due to the high costs of its business expansion plans, he remains positive on the company’s fundamentals long-term.\n“Elevated near-term expenses (new Arizona facility, retail expansion) will likely weigh on street EBITDA estimates though they should position the company for stronger long-term growth and operating leverage,” the analyst said.\nThe RealReal's Position As The Economy Reopens: “We see REAL as one of the ecommerce names most levered to the reopening given not only its end market demand (luxury/apparel), but also its supply dynamics,” Schenk said.\nKeyBanc analyst Edward Yruma sees increased revenue coming from the RealReal planned opening of the new brick-and-mortar stores in 2021.\n“Neighborhood stores should serve as effective marketing tools not only for increasing supply, but also for attracting new buyers,” the analyst said\nNeedham analyst Rick Patel believes revenue will accelerate over the next few quarters as customers return to consigning, which will help the RealReal boost its inventory.\n“Over the past year, REAL has been more supply constrained than demand constrained. When the pandemic began, supply units were (46%) in April ’20 but are now on an improving trend with 4Q20 units +13%,” the analyst said.\nRaymond James analyst Kessler believes the recovery is priced in.\n“While we remain positive on long-term fundamentals (large luxury goods market shifting online, 25% longterm growth outlook, 20%+ long-term EBITDA margins), we believe risk reward is more balanced at current levels,” the analyst said.\nThe RealReal Ratings, Price Targets: KeyBanc maintained its Overweight rating and price target of $32.\nMorgan Stanley maintained its Equal-weight rating and increased its price target from $17 to $25.\nNeedham maintained a Hold rating.\nRaymond James downgraded its rating from Outperform to Market Perform and maintained a price target of $17.\nRealReal's stock closed down 13.32% at $24.82 per share.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":19,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":369478734,"gmtCreate":1614073581528,"gmtModify":1634551297733,"author":{"id":"3575853838461107","authorId":"3575853838461107","name":"Fuffywumps","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7bfdeff55cbef3073b838a41636894e7","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3575853838461107","authorIdStr":"3575853838461107"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PLTR\">$Palantir Technologies Inc.(PLTR)$</a>Hopefully 🙏","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PLTR\">$Palantir Technologies Inc.(PLTR)$</a>Hopefully 🙏","text":"$Palantir Technologies Inc.(PLTR)$Hopefully 🙏","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9da01e58b6981ccd69f16378236e55e9","width":"1125","height":"2183"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/369478734","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":99,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":385511199,"gmtCreate":1613563212911,"gmtModify":1634553146285,"author":{"id":"3575853838461107","authorId":"3575853838461107","name":"Fuffywumps","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7bfdeff55cbef3073b838a41636894e7","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3575853838461107","authorIdStr":"3575853838461107"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Hm","listText":"Hm","text":"Hm","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/385511199","repostId":"1195476575","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1195476575","pubTimestamp":1613555269,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1195476575?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-02-17 17:47","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Index funds don’t buy IPOs but here’s why they should","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1195476575","media":"MarketWatch","summary":"How indexed mutual funds and ETFs can capture the powerful gains when a company goes public\nThe U.S.","content":"<p>How indexed mutual funds and ETFs can capture the powerful gains when a company goes public</p>\n<p>The U.S. market for IPOs (initial public offerings) was red hot in 2020.&nbsp; Excluding special purpose acquisition vehicles, U.S. IPOs last year raised $83 billion in gross proceeds.&nbsp; The prices of these IPOs jumped during the initial day of trading by 36% on average.</p>\n<p>Despite these high returns, index funds — including mutual funds and exchange-traded funds — almost never bought IPOs at their initial offering price.&nbsp; Instead, index funds waited to buy IPO stocks until near the date on which they were added to the relevant index — typically at the end of a quarter within six months to a year after the IPO.</p>\n<p>Yet as the index inclusion date nears for any IPO, its price typically surges in anticipation of a barrage of purchases — driving up the price that index funds must pay for that stock.&nbsp; For example, the price of Tesla&nbsp;spiked once it became likely that the company would be added to the S&amp;P500.</p>\n<p>In this article, I outline the data from 2010 to 2018 about the high initial returns for IPOs as well as the concerns holding back index funds from buying IPOs before they are included in the index.&nbsp; Then, I make a path-breaking proposal — allowing any index fund that tracks the Russell 1000 Index&nbsp;to meet these concerns by early buying of IPOs if, and only if, they are large relative to the size of the index.</p>\n<p>Like many other studies,the study that I co-authored with two experts on indexing&nbsp;found high returns in IPO stock prices during the initial day of trading. After this initial day of trading, the study evaluated IPO returns by a measure known as the index-adjusted performance (IAP) — the difference between the total return of the security and the total return of the index from the closing price on the first day of trading to the closing price of any following day.&nbsp; For example, a positive IAP would signal that an IPO has outperformed the index from the close of the first day of trading until the date the IPO is included in the relevant index.</p>\n<p>The study calculated these two metrics of returns for all 932 U.S. IPOs offered in the nine years between January 2010 and December 2018.&nbsp; Of these 932 IPOs, 115 were included in the Russell 1000 within the first six months of trading.</p>\n<p>The study used the Russell 1000 because it includes 92% of the total market capitalization of all listed stocks in the U.S. equity market.&nbsp; The Russell 1000 contains the top 1000 publicly traded U.S. companies according to market capitalization.&nbsp; IPOs are considered for inclusion at the end of each quarter, strictly based on their market capitalization.</p>\n<p>The first-day return for these 115 IPOs was highly positive — 22% on average with a median gain of 10%. &nbsp;Similarly, looking at the IAP for these 115 IPOs included in the Russell 1000, the study found a positive trend — with an average IAP of 6.89% and median of 5.24% between the IPO and the index inclusion date.</p>\n<p>Both of these trends show that index funds could generate excess return by buying IPOs before they are added to the index.&nbsp; The greatest return could be realized by buying IPOs at the initial offering price and holding them through the index inclusion date.&nbsp; Index funds could also realize significant excess returns by buying IPOs after their first day of trading and holding them through the index inclusion date.</p>\n<p><b>Risks in the returns</b></p>\n<p>Index funds would face several risks associated with such early purchases of IPOs.</p>\n<p>First, and most importantly, no one knows which IPOs will be added to the index at the time of the IPO.&nbsp; An index fund might purchase an IPO stock that doesn’t get added to the index.&nbsp; In that event, the fund would have to sell the IPO stock, potentially at a loss. The price of the IPO stock would decline because there would no longer be the expectation that other index funds would be required to buy that stock when it is added to the index.</p>\n<p>A second concern is that an index fund would not get a large enough allocation in an IPO to reflect the stock’s future position in the index — for example, when a popular tech company goes public.&nbsp;Even so, an index fund can still generate excess returns by buying more of such a stock on the day following an IPO and holding that stock until it is added to the index.</p>\n<p>Third, since the index fund would be holding stocks that are not included in the index — at least for several months — the fund would experience tracking error.&nbsp; Tracking error occurs when the returns on an index fund portfolio differ materially from those of the index it is benchmarked against.&nbsp; But investors would probably not be overly concerned if the fund beat the index it was designed to track.</p>\n<p>Of course, the prospectus of such an index fund would have to make clear that it would be buying stocks in the initial offerings of IPOs and after their first day of trading. The prospectus should also delineate the risks involved when the fund buys IPOs before they are included in the index.</p>\n<p>To mitigate the most important risk — that the IPO will not be included in the index — I recommend that index funds should purchase an IPO only if its expected weight in the Russell 1000 is relatively large. The expected weight equals the gross proceeds raised by the IPO, divided by the total freely traded float of stocks in the index. &nbsp; Since the Russell 1000 Index is composed of the top 1000 U.S. companies by market capitalization, the larger the IPO is relative to the index, the more likely that the IPO will be added to that index.</p>\n<p>This strategy could be adapted to varying risk tolerances of index funds by adjusting the size threshold for early purchases of an IPO.&nbsp; In a conservative strategy, the index fund would purchase only IPOs with the largest expected weight in the index, since they are most likely to be included in the index.&nbsp; In a more aggressive strategy, by contrast, the size threshold for buying IPOs would be lower.</p>\n<p>The study examined three thresholds for risk appetite, defined in terms of the expected weight of the IPO in the index: 1.0 basis point for conservative; 0.75 basis point for pragmatic and 0.50 basis point for aggressive. (One basis point equals 1/100 of 1%)</p>\n<p>The results, summarized in the table below, show that this strategy would have been successful at generating excess returns without significant risks during the period from 2010 through 2018.</p>\n<p>For example, 100% of the largest IPOs that would have been purchased under the conservative strategy during this period were added to the index within the first six months and generated excess returns above 15%.&nbsp; Under the aggressive strategy, 88% of the IPOs that would have been purchased during this period were included in the index within six months and generated excess returns of close to 17%.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0fc52461985f7a3ca10fac53ba2ccf05\" tg-width=\"1260\" tg-height=\"476\"></p>\n<p>My recommendation is that an index fund based on the Russell 1000 buy relatively large IPOs in their initial offerings or, if necessary, immediately after their first day of trading. Although there is a modest risk that such IPOs will not subsequently be included in that index, the excess returns from this strategy outweigh the risks.</p>\n<p>I would not recommend that any index fund use this strategy to buy an IPO effected by merging a private company with a special acquisition vehicle.&nbsp;I also would not recommend this strategy for any index fund based on other indices where it is more difficult to predict when and whether IPO stocks will be included in the index, such as the S&amp;P 500, where stocks included are chosen by a committee.</p>","source":"market_watch","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Index funds don’t buy IPOs but here’s why they should</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; 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}\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nIndex funds don’t buy IPOs but here’s why they should\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-02-17 17:47 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.marketwatch.com/story/index-funds-dont-buy-ipos-but-heres-why-they-should-11613194940?mod=home-page><strong>MarketWatch</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>How indexed mutual funds and ETFs can capture the powerful gains when a company goes public\nThe U.S. market for IPOs (initial public offerings) was red hot in 2020.  Excluding special purpose ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/index-funds-dont-buy-ipos-but-heres-why-they-should-11613194940?mod=home-page\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/index-funds-dont-buy-ipos-but-heres-why-they-should-11613194940?mod=home-page","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/599a65733b8245fcf7868668ef9ad712","article_id":"1195476575","content_text":"How indexed mutual funds and ETFs can capture the powerful gains when a company goes public\nThe U.S. market for IPOs (initial public offerings) was red hot in 2020.  Excluding special purpose acquisition vehicles, U.S. IPOs last year raised $83 billion in gross proceeds.  The prices of these IPOs jumped during the initial day of trading by 36% on average.\nDespite these high returns, index funds — including mutual funds and exchange-traded funds — almost never bought IPOs at their initial offering price.  Instead, index funds waited to buy IPO stocks until near the date on which they were added to the relevant index — typically at the end of a quarter within six months to a year after the IPO.\nYet as the index inclusion date nears for any IPO, its price typically surges in anticipation of a barrage of purchases — driving up the price that index funds must pay for that stock.  For example, the price of Tesla spiked once it became likely that the company would be added to the S&P500.\nIn this article, I outline the data from 2010 to 2018 about the high initial returns for IPOs as well as the concerns holding back index funds from buying IPOs before they are included in the index.  Then, I make a path-breaking proposal — allowing any index fund that tracks the Russell 1000 Index to meet these concerns by early buying of IPOs if, and only if, they are large relative to the size of the index.\nLike many other studies,the study that I co-authored with two experts on indexing found high returns in IPO stock prices during the initial day of trading. After this initial day of trading, the study evaluated IPO returns by a measure known as the index-adjusted performance (IAP) — the difference between the total return of the security and the total return of the index from the closing price on the first day of trading to the closing price of any following day.  For example, a positive IAP would signal that an IPO has outperformed the index from the close of the first day of trading until the date the IPO is included in the relevant index.\nThe study calculated these two metrics of returns for all 932 U.S. IPOs offered in the nine years between January 2010 and December 2018.  Of these 932 IPOs, 115 were included in the Russell 1000 within the first six months of trading.\nThe study used the Russell 1000 because it includes 92% of the total market capitalization of all listed stocks in the U.S. equity market.  The Russell 1000 contains the top 1000 publicly traded U.S. companies according to market capitalization.  IPOs are considered for inclusion at the end of each quarter, strictly based on their market capitalization.\nThe first-day return for these 115 IPOs was highly positive — 22% on average with a median gain of 10%.  Similarly, looking at the IAP for these 115 IPOs included in the Russell 1000, the study found a positive trend — with an average IAP of 6.89% and median of 5.24% between the IPO and the index inclusion date.\nBoth of these trends show that index funds could generate excess return by buying IPOs before they are added to the index.  The greatest return could be realized by buying IPOs at the initial offering price and holding them through the index inclusion date.  Index funds could also realize significant excess returns by buying IPOs after their first day of trading and holding them through the index inclusion date.\nRisks in the returns\nIndex funds would face several risks associated with such early purchases of IPOs.\nFirst, and most importantly, no one knows which IPOs will be added to the index at the time of the IPO.  An index fund might purchase an IPO stock that doesn’t get added to the index.  In that event, the fund would have to sell the IPO stock, potentially at a loss. The price of the IPO stock would decline because there would no longer be the expectation that other index funds would be required to buy that stock when it is added to the index.\nA second concern is that an index fund would not get a large enough allocation in an IPO to reflect the stock’s future position in the index — for example, when a popular tech company goes public. Even so, an index fund can still generate excess returns by buying more of such a stock on the day following an IPO and holding that stock until it is added to the index.\nThird, since the index fund would be holding stocks that are not included in the index — at least for several months — the fund would experience tracking error.  Tracking error occurs when the returns on an index fund portfolio differ materially from those of the index it is benchmarked against.  But investors would probably not be overly concerned if the fund beat the index it was designed to track.\nOf course, the prospectus of such an index fund would have to make clear that it would be buying stocks in the initial offerings of IPOs and after their first day of trading. The prospectus should also delineate the risks involved when the fund buys IPOs before they are included in the index.\nTo mitigate the most important risk — that the IPO will not be included in the index — I recommend that index funds should purchase an IPO only if its expected weight in the Russell 1000 is relatively large. The expected weight equals the gross proceeds raised by the IPO, divided by the total freely traded float of stocks in the index.   Since the Russell 1000 Index is composed of the top 1000 U.S. companies by market capitalization, the larger the IPO is relative to the index, the more likely that the IPO will be added to that index.\nThis strategy could be adapted to varying risk tolerances of index funds by adjusting the size threshold for early purchases of an IPO.  In a conservative strategy, the index fund would purchase only IPOs with the largest expected weight in the index, since they are most likely to be included in the index.  In a more aggressive strategy, by contrast, the size threshold for buying IPOs would be lower.\nThe study examined three thresholds for risk appetite, defined in terms of the expected weight of the IPO in the index: 1.0 basis point for conservative; 0.75 basis point for pragmatic and 0.50 basis point for aggressive. (One basis point equals 1/100 of 1%)\nThe results, summarized in the table below, show that this strategy would have been successful at generating excess returns without significant risks during the period from 2010 through 2018.\nFor example, 100% of the largest IPOs that would have been purchased under the conservative strategy during this period were added to the index within the first six months and generated excess returns above 15%.  Under the aggressive strategy, 88% of the IPOs that would have been purchased during this period were included in the index within six months and generated excess returns of close to 17%.\n\nMy recommendation is that an index fund based on the Russell 1000 buy relatively large IPOs in their initial offerings or, if necessary, immediately after their first day of trading. Although there is a modest risk that such IPOs will not subsequently be included in that index, the excess returns from this strategy outweigh the risks.\nI would not recommend that any index fund use this strategy to buy an IPO effected by merging a private company with a special acquisition vehicle. I also would not recommend this strategy for any index fund based on other indices where it is more difficult to predict when and whether IPO stocks will be included in the index, such as the S&P 500, where stocks included are chosen by a committee.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":108,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":385513290,"gmtCreate":1613563178610,"gmtModify":1634553146733,"author":{"id":"3575853838461107","authorId":"3575853838461107","name":"Fuffywumps","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7bfdeff55cbef3073b838a41636894e7","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3575853838461107","authorIdStr":"3575853838461107"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Another chance?&nbsp;","listText":"Another chance?&nbsp;","text":"Another chance?","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/aa06d6561638ba968b0d803bec980c48","width":"1125","height":"3437"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/385513290","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":99,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":383008157,"gmtCreate":1612802643479,"gmtModify":1703765356384,"author":{"id":"3575853838461107","authorId":"3575853838461107","name":"Fuffywumps","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7bfdeff55cbef3073b838a41636894e7","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3575853838461107","authorIdStr":"3575853838461107"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Good&nbsp;","listText":"Good&nbsp;","text":"Good","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/383008157","repostId":"1193450954","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":100,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":383008000,"gmtCreate":1612802591400,"gmtModify":1703765355690,"author":{"id":"3575853838461107","authorId":"3575853838461107","name":"Fuffywumps","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7bfdeff55cbef3073b838a41636894e7","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3575853838461107","authorIdStr":"3575853838461107"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Will it go higher?","listText":"Will it go higher?","text":"Will it go higher?","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/57441646688310e0751ae3f8aa9ff3d9","width":"750","height":"1819"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/383008000","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":146,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":383000107,"gmtCreate":1612802177009,"gmtModify":1703765350353,"author":{"id":"3575853838461107","authorId":"3575853838461107","name":"Fuffywumps","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7bfdeff55cbef3073b838a41636894e7","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3575853838461107","authorIdStr":"3575853838461107"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Good read","listText":"Good read","text":"Good read","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/383000107","repostId":"1195153829","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1195153829","pubTimestamp":1612781502,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1195153829?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-02-08 18:51","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Here’s What the GameStop Affair Has Taught Us","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1195153829","media":"Barrons","summary":"This commentary was issued recently by money managers, research firms, and market newsletter writers","content":"<p><i>This commentary was issued recently by money managers, research firms, and market newsletter writers and has been edited by Barron’s.</i></p>\n<p>What GameStop Taught Us</p>\n<p><i>The Weekly Speculator</i></p>\n<p><i>Marketfield Asset Management</i></p>\n<p>marketfield.com</p>\n<p>Feb. 4: After all is said and done, one of the most lasting effects of theGameStop(ticker: GME) episode will be to educate many market participants about the key role and ultimate power held by the clearing institution, the Depository Trust Company. One of the stranger aspects of the affair has been the attempt to paint it as some form of moral crusade, or an opportunity for the “little guy” to get even with Wall Street. The truth is that some large investors lost a great deal of money, while others were well rewarded, just as some small investors will have reaped life-changing sums while others will have lost funds that may prove to be equally impactful. In this sense, the market is a meritocracy, which isn’t quite the same as saying that it is always fair in delivering outcomes.</p>\n<p>What is also clear is that late January saw a very significant degrossing of levered hedge-fund investors, without causing a deep correction in the equity market. The S&amp;P 500 essentially respected support at the 50-day moving average, and didn’t need to move down to 3600, which we had set as a “worst case” target. The Nasdaq 100, Russell 2000, and MSCI Emerging Markets Index didn’t need to touch their corresponding trend support, and all three indexes managed to generate a positive return in January, unlike the S&amp;P 500, which registered a small loss. The subsequent bounce has been rapid and broad, as would be expected from a catalyst that was both technical and ephemeral in nature.</p>\n<p>That it is not a wholly positive or inconsequential affair. The long bull market is now showing signs of developing into a historic mania. This doesn’t mean that a market peak is imminent, but the normative process—whereby what is “appropriate” is ultimately influenced by extremes—means that the levels of risk being taken by the average investor are probably significantly higher than they were pre-Covid.</p>\n<p>—Michael Shaoul, Timothy Brackett</p>\n<p>Heigh-Ho Silver!</p>\n<p><i>The Aden Forecast Weekly Update</i></p>\n<p><i>The Aden Forecast</i></p>\n<p>adenforecast.com</p>\n<p>Feb. 4: Silver caught on fire by zipping up to the August highs near $30 on Monday during the Reddit buying frenzy. Silver was strong anyway, and it’s been holding up well, so whoever pegged silver knew what they were doing. Silver shares also got a big boost upward, and while they have since calmed down, it looks like volatility will stay with us. Silver has been holding above its 15-week moving average since December, and it’ll remain strong by staying above it at $25. The next milestone to surpass is the $30 level, the highs for this bull market. If clearly broken, another leg up will be underway. Keep your silver and silver share positions.</p>\n<p>—Mary Anne and Pamela Aden</p>\n<p>How to Play Oil’s Recent Rally</p>\n<p><i>Daily Insights</i></p>\n<p><i>BCA Research</i></p>\n<p><i>bcaresearch.com</i></p>\n<p>Feb 4: The recent oil rally will have consequences for asset prices beyond the energy market. While higher oil prices benefit oil exporters, they hurt the economies of oil importers, often with a lag.</p>\n<p>A great example of these dynamics is China. The Chinese economy is a large oil importer; hence, rising oil prices act as a tax on Chinese growth. Moreover, Chinese A shares massively overweight tech stocks, which receive no benefit from higher energy prices. In fact, over the past four years, increasing Brent prices reliably lead to a decline in on-shore domestic markets by roughly three months. The current setup is reminiscent of early 2018. Back then, Chinese A shares had been rallying for a few months after oil prices had started to rally. Ultimately, a deceleration in Chinese growth and cautious policy making from Beijing resulted in a powerful selloff of Chinese equities. Today, Chinese growth is once again decelerating and Beijing is conducting some significant regulatory tightening, while the People’s Bank of China is draining liquidity. Thus, a significant correction in Chinese shares is likely this spring.</p>\n<p>A lower-octane strategy to play these dynamics is to go long United Kingdom equities relative to Germany’s while espousing the implicit currency exposure. German equities are extremely underweight energy, and Germany imports its entire oil consumption. Meanwhile, the U.K. benchmark is replete with energy stocks and the U.K. remains an oil producer, even if it imports some of its oil (rising Brent represents a comparatively smaller tax on the U.K. economy). As a side benefit, the pound is very cheap against the euro and the U.K.’s vaccination campaign is massively ahead of the eurozone’s, which could result in earlier economic dividends north of the Channel and hurt the euro/pound in the process.</p>\n<p>—Mathieu Savary and Team</p>\n<p>High-Yield Opportunities</p>\n<p><i>Carret Credit Insight</i></p>\n<p><i>Carret Asset Mangaement</i></p>\n<p>carret.com</p>\n<p>Feb. 3: At year-end 2020, the iBoxx High-Yield Index yielded 4.23%, an all-time low. Spreads also registered record tightness. Low yields aren’t a surprise as investors globally reach for income. The Federal Reserve has backstopped the “fallen angels,” allowing many high-yield (HY) companies to refinance at ever-lower rates and extend upcoming maturities for another day. Strong equity markets are forecasting an earnings rebound, and the vaccines will bring brighter days soon. We continue to find attractive values in the short/intermediate portion of the high-quality HY market.</p>\n<p>We want to share a recent academic study with you regarding the risk and returns in the HY bond market: George Mason Universityrecently publisheda report on HY bond-fund returns and volatility relative to equities (S&amp;P 500). Since 1990, the average HY bond fund has delivered average annualized returns of 7.1% with a volatility of 7.7%. Over the same time period, the S&amp;P 500 delivered an average annualized return of 7.8%, but with almost double the volatility of 14.5%. The conclusion: HY bonds have paid total returns near those of the U.S. stock market with half of the volatility. We believe the HY market will offer competitive returns in the decade ahead, as equity valuations have risen and Treasury yields have plummeted. Our ability to utilize busted convertibles, preferreds, and special-situation income investments enhances our cash-flow opportunities.</p>\n<p>—Jason R. Graybill, Neil D. Klein</p>\n<p>Emerging Markets Blast Off</p>\n<p><i>PCM Report</i></p>\n<p><i>Peak Capital Management</i></p>\n<p>pcmstrategies.com</p>\n<p>Feb. 1: So far, 2021 has been a good year for emerging-market equities. Year to date, theiShares MSCI Emerging Marketsexchange-traded fund (EEM) is higher by roughly 8%, compared to a gain of approximately 3% for theSPDR S&amp;P 500ETF (SPY). Ever since the financial crisis of 2008, emerging markets collectively have woefully lagged U.S. equities.</p>\n<p>What could propel the asset class higher in 20201 and beyond? In the long term, the likely catalyst is demographics. Developed markets such as the U.S. and Europe have aging populations, which could suggest lower productivity and gross-domestic-product growth over the next decade compared to emerging-market economies.</p>\n<p>In its most recent capital-markets report, JPMorgan projected GDP growth across emerging markets to be 3.9% in 2021, compared to 1.6% across developed markets. The report suggests China and India will drive GDP growth, and emerging markets’ productivity and human capital will gradually converge to developed-market levels.</p>\n<p>—Clint Pekrul</p>","source":"lsy1601382232898","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title> Here’s What the GameStop Affair Has Taught Us</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n Here’s What the GameStop Affair Has Taught Us\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-02-08 18:51 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.barrons.com/articles/gamestop-episode-offers-lessons-for-investors-51612572300?mod=RTA><strong>Barrons</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>This commentary was issued recently by money managers, research firms, and market newsletter writers and has been edited by Barron’s.\nWhat GameStop Taught Us\nThe Weekly Speculator\nMarketfield Asset ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.barrons.com/articles/gamestop-episode-offers-lessons-for-investors-51612572300?mod=RTA\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"GME":"游戏驿站",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://www.barrons.com/articles/gamestop-episode-offers-lessons-for-investors-51612572300?mod=RTA","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1195153829","content_text":"This commentary was issued recently by money managers, research firms, and market newsletter writers and has been edited by Barron’s.\nWhat GameStop Taught Us\nThe Weekly Speculator\nMarketfield Asset Management\nmarketfield.com\nFeb. 4: After all is said and done, one of the most lasting effects of theGameStop(ticker: GME) episode will be to educate many market participants about the key role and ultimate power held by the clearing institution, the Depository Trust Company. One of the stranger aspects of the affair has been the attempt to paint it as some form of moral crusade, or an opportunity for the “little guy” to get even with Wall Street. The truth is that some large investors lost a great deal of money, while others were well rewarded, just as some small investors will have reaped life-changing sums while others will have lost funds that may prove to be equally impactful. In this sense, the market is a meritocracy, which isn’t quite the same as saying that it is always fair in delivering outcomes.\nWhat is also clear is that late January saw a very significant degrossing of levered hedge-fund investors, without causing a deep correction in the equity market. The S&P 500 essentially respected support at the 50-day moving average, and didn’t need to move down to 3600, which we had set as a “worst case” target. The Nasdaq 100, Russell 2000, and MSCI Emerging Markets Index didn’t need to touch their corresponding trend support, and all three indexes managed to generate a positive return in January, unlike the S&P 500, which registered a small loss. The subsequent bounce has been rapid and broad, as would be expected from a catalyst that was both technical and ephemeral in nature.\nThat it is not a wholly positive or inconsequential affair. The long bull market is now showing signs of developing into a historic mania. This doesn’t mean that a market peak is imminent, but the normative process—whereby what is “appropriate” is ultimately influenced by extremes—means that the levels of risk being taken by the average investor are probably significantly higher than they were pre-Covid.\n—Michael Shaoul, Timothy Brackett\nHeigh-Ho Silver!\nThe Aden Forecast Weekly Update\nThe Aden Forecast\nadenforecast.com\nFeb. 4: Silver caught on fire by zipping up to the August highs near $30 on Monday during the Reddit buying frenzy. Silver was strong anyway, and it’s been holding up well, so whoever pegged silver knew what they were doing. Silver shares also got a big boost upward, and while they have since calmed down, it looks like volatility will stay with us. Silver has been holding above its 15-week moving average since December, and it’ll remain strong by staying above it at $25. The next milestone to surpass is the $30 level, the highs for this bull market. If clearly broken, another leg up will be underway. Keep your silver and silver share positions.\n—Mary Anne and Pamela Aden\nHow to Play Oil’s Recent Rally\nDaily Insights\nBCA Research\nbcaresearch.com\nFeb 4: The recent oil rally will have consequences for asset prices beyond the energy market. While higher oil prices benefit oil exporters, they hurt the economies of oil importers, often with a lag.\nA great example of these dynamics is China. The Chinese economy is a large oil importer; hence, rising oil prices act as a tax on Chinese growth. Moreover, Chinese A shares massively overweight tech stocks, which receive no benefit from higher energy prices. In fact, over the past four years, increasing Brent prices reliably lead to a decline in on-shore domestic markets by roughly three months. The current setup is reminiscent of early 2018. Back then, Chinese A shares had been rallying for a few months after oil prices had started to rally. Ultimately, a deceleration in Chinese growth and cautious policy making from Beijing resulted in a powerful selloff of Chinese equities. Today, Chinese growth is once again decelerating and Beijing is conducting some significant regulatory tightening, while the People’s Bank of China is draining liquidity. Thus, a significant correction in Chinese shares is likely this spring.\nA lower-octane strategy to play these dynamics is to go long United Kingdom equities relative to Germany’s while espousing the implicit currency exposure. German equities are extremely underweight energy, and Germany imports its entire oil consumption. Meanwhile, the U.K. benchmark is replete with energy stocks and the U.K. remains an oil producer, even if it imports some of its oil (rising Brent represents a comparatively smaller tax on the U.K. economy). As a side benefit, the pound is very cheap against the euro and the U.K.’s vaccination campaign is massively ahead of the eurozone’s, which could result in earlier economic dividends north of the Channel and hurt the euro/pound in the process.\n—Mathieu Savary and Team\nHigh-Yield Opportunities\nCarret Credit Insight\nCarret Asset Mangaement\ncarret.com\nFeb. 3: At year-end 2020, the iBoxx High-Yield Index yielded 4.23%, an all-time low. Spreads also registered record tightness. Low yields aren’t a surprise as investors globally reach for income. The Federal Reserve has backstopped the “fallen angels,” allowing many high-yield (HY) companies to refinance at ever-lower rates and extend upcoming maturities for another day. Strong equity markets are forecasting an earnings rebound, and the vaccines will bring brighter days soon. We continue to find attractive values in the short/intermediate portion of the high-quality HY market.\nWe want to share a recent academic study with you regarding the risk and returns in the HY bond market: George Mason Universityrecently publisheda report on HY bond-fund returns and volatility relative to equities (S&P 500). Since 1990, the average HY bond fund has delivered average annualized returns of 7.1% with a volatility of 7.7%. Over the same time period, the S&P 500 delivered an average annualized return of 7.8%, but with almost double the volatility of 14.5%. The conclusion: HY bonds have paid total returns near those of the U.S. stock market with half of the volatility. We believe the HY market will offer competitive returns in the decade ahead, as equity valuations have risen and Treasury yields have plummeted. Our ability to utilize busted convertibles, preferreds, and special-situation income investments enhances our cash-flow opportunities.\n—Jason R. Graybill, Neil D. Klein\nEmerging Markets Blast Off\nPCM Report\nPeak Capital Management\npcmstrategies.com\nFeb. 1: So far, 2021 has been a good year for emerging-market equities. Year to date, theiShares MSCI Emerging Marketsexchange-traded fund (EEM) is higher by roughly 8%, compared to a gain of approximately 3% for theSPDR S&P 500ETF (SPY). Ever since the financial crisis of 2008, emerging markets collectively have woefully lagged U.S. equities.\nWhat could propel the asset class higher in 20201 and beyond? In the long term, the likely catalyst is demographics. Developed markets such as the U.S. and Europe have aging populations, which could suggest lower productivity and gross-domestic-product growth over the next decade compared to emerging-market economies.\nIn its most recent capital-markets report, JPMorgan projected GDP growth across emerging markets to be 3.9% in 2021, compared to 1.6% across developed markets. The report suggests China and India will drive GDP growth, and emerging markets’ productivity and human capital will gradually converge to developed-market levels.\n—Clint Pekrul","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":78,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":363243321,"gmtCreate":1614146130463,"gmtModify":1634550986672,"author":{"id":"3575853838461107","authorId":"3575853838461107","name":"Fuffywumps","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7bfdeff55cbef3073b838a41636894e7","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3575853838461107","idStr":"3575853838461107"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Wohoooo","listText":"Wohoooo","text":"Wohoooo","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/363243321","repostId":"2113835326","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":19,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":369478734,"gmtCreate":1614073581528,"gmtModify":1634551297733,"author":{"id":"3575853838461107","authorId":"3575853838461107","name":"Fuffywumps","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7bfdeff55cbef3073b838a41636894e7","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3575853838461107","idStr":"3575853838461107"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PLTR\">$Palantir Technologies Inc.(PLTR)$</a>Hopefully 🙏","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PLTR\">$Palantir Technologies Inc.(PLTR)$</a>Hopefully 🙏","text":"$Palantir Technologies Inc.(PLTR)$Hopefully 🙏","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9da01e58b6981ccd69f16378236e55e9","width":"1125","height":"2183"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/369478734","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":99,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":385511199,"gmtCreate":1613563212911,"gmtModify":1634553146285,"author":{"id":"3575853838461107","authorId":"3575853838461107","name":"Fuffywumps","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7bfdeff55cbef3073b838a41636894e7","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3575853838461107","idStr":"3575853838461107"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Hm","listText":"Hm","text":"Hm","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/385511199","repostId":"1195476575","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":108,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":385513290,"gmtCreate":1613563178610,"gmtModify":1634553146733,"author":{"id":"3575853838461107","authorId":"3575853838461107","name":"Fuffywumps","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7bfdeff55cbef3073b838a41636894e7","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3575853838461107","idStr":"3575853838461107"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Another chance?&nbsp;","listText":"Another chance?&nbsp;","text":"Another chance?","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/aa06d6561638ba968b0d803bec980c48","width":"1125","height":"3437"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/385513290","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":99,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":383008157,"gmtCreate":1612802643479,"gmtModify":1703765356384,"author":{"id":"3575853838461107","authorId":"3575853838461107","name":"Fuffywumps","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7bfdeff55cbef3073b838a41636894e7","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3575853838461107","idStr":"3575853838461107"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Good&nbsp;","listText":"Good&nbsp;","text":"Good","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/383008157","repostId":"1193450954","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":100,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":383008000,"gmtCreate":1612802591400,"gmtModify":1703765355690,"author":{"id":"3575853838461107","authorId":"3575853838461107","name":"Fuffywumps","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7bfdeff55cbef3073b838a41636894e7","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3575853838461107","idStr":"3575853838461107"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Will it go higher?","listText":"Will it go higher?","text":"Will it go higher?","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/57441646688310e0751ae3f8aa9ff3d9","width":"750","height":"1819"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/383008000","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":146,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":383000107,"gmtCreate":1612802177009,"gmtModify":1703765350353,"author":{"id":"3575853838461107","authorId":"3575853838461107","name":"Fuffywumps","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7bfdeff55cbef3073b838a41636894e7","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3575853838461107","idStr":"3575853838461107"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Good read","listText":"Good read","text":"Good read","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/383000107","repostId":"1195153829","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1195153829","pubTimestamp":1612781502,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1195153829?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-02-08 18:51","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Here’s What the GameStop Affair Has Taught Us","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1195153829","media":"Barrons","summary":"This commentary was issued recently by money managers, research firms, and market newsletter writers","content":"<p><i>This commentary was issued recently by money managers, research firms, and market newsletter writers and has been edited by Barron’s.</i></p>\n<p>What GameStop Taught Us</p>\n<p><i>The Weekly Speculator</i></p>\n<p><i>Marketfield Asset Management</i></p>\n<p>marketfield.com</p>\n<p>Feb. 4: After all is said and done, one of the most lasting effects of theGameStop(ticker: GME) episode will be to educate many market participants about the key role and ultimate power held by the clearing institution, the Depository Trust Company. One of the stranger aspects of the affair has been the attempt to paint it as some form of moral crusade, or an opportunity for the “little guy” to get even with Wall Street. The truth is that some large investors lost a great deal of money, while others were well rewarded, just as some small investors will have reaped life-changing sums while others will have lost funds that may prove to be equally impactful. In this sense, the market is a meritocracy, which isn’t quite the same as saying that it is always fair in delivering outcomes.</p>\n<p>What is also clear is that late January saw a very significant degrossing of levered hedge-fund investors, without causing a deep correction in the equity market. The S&amp;P 500 essentially respected support at the 50-day moving average, and didn’t need to move down to 3600, which we had set as a “worst case” target. The Nasdaq 100, Russell 2000, and MSCI Emerging Markets Index didn’t need to touch their corresponding trend support, and all three indexes managed to generate a positive return in January, unlike the S&amp;P 500, which registered a small loss. The subsequent bounce has been rapid and broad, as would be expected from a catalyst that was both technical and ephemeral in nature.</p>\n<p>That it is not a wholly positive or inconsequential affair. The long bull market is now showing signs of developing into a historic mania. This doesn’t mean that a market peak is imminent, but the normative process—whereby what is “appropriate” is ultimately influenced by extremes—means that the levels of risk being taken by the average investor are probably significantly higher than they were pre-Covid.</p>\n<p>—Michael Shaoul, Timothy Brackett</p>\n<p>Heigh-Ho Silver!</p>\n<p><i>The Aden Forecast Weekly Update</i></p>\n<p><i>The Aden Forecast</i></p>\n<p>adenforecast.com</p>\n<p>Feb. 4: Silver caught on fire by zipping up to the August highs near $30 on Monday during the Reddit buying frenzy. Silver was strong anyway, and it’s been holding up well, so whoever pegged silver knew what they were doing. Silver shares also got a big boost upward, and while they have since calmed down, it looks like volatility will stay with us. Silver has been holding above its 15-week moving average since December, and it’ll remain strong by staying above it at $25. The next milestone to surpass is the $30 level, the highs for this bull market. If clearly broken, another leg up will be underway. Keep your silver and silver share positions.</p>\n<p>—Mary Anne and Pamela Aden</p>\n<p>How to Play Oil’s Recent Rally</p>\n<p><i>Daily Insights</i></p>\n<p><i>BCA Research</i></p>\n<p><i>bcaresearch.com</i></p>\n<p>Feb 4: The recent oil rally will have consequences for asset prices beyond the energy market. While higher oil prices benefit oil exporters, they hurt the economies of oil importers, often with a lag.</p>\n<p>A great example of these dynamics is China. The Chinese economy is a large oil importer; hence, rising oil prices act as a tax on Chinese growth. Moreover, Chinese A shares massively overweight tech stocks, which receive no benefit from higher energy prices. In fact, over the past four years, increasing Brent prices reliably lead to a decline in on-shore domestic markets by roughly three months. The current setup is reminiscent of early 2018. Back then, Chinese A shares had been rallying for a few months after oil prices had started to rally. Ultimately, a deceleration in Chinese growth and cautious policy making from Beijing resulted in a powerful selloff of Chinese equities. Today, Chinese growth is once again decelerating and Beijing is conducting some significant regulatory tightening, while the People’s Bank of China is draining liquidity. Thus, a significant correction in Chinese shares is likely this spring.</p>\n<p>A lower-octane strategy to play these dynamics is to go long United Kingdom equities relative to Germany’s while espousing the implicit currency exposure. German equities are extremely underweight energy, and Germany imports its entire oil consumption. Meanwhile, the U.K. benchmark is replete with energy stocks and the U.K. remains an oil producer, even if it imports some of its oil (rising Brent represents a comparatively smaller tax on the U.K. economy). As a side benefit, the pound is very cheap against the euro and the U.K.’s vaccination campaign is massively ahead of the eurozone’s, which could result in earlier economic dividends north of the Channel and hurt the euro/pound in the process.</p>\n<p>—Mathieu Savary and Team</p>\n<p>High-Yield Opportunities</p>\n<p><i>Carret Credit Insight</i></p>\n<p><i>Carret Asset Mangaement</i></p>\n<p>carret.com</p>\n<p>Feb. 3: At year-end 2020, the iBoxx High-Yield Index yielded 4.23%, an all-time low. Spreads also registered record tightness. Low yields aren’t a surprise as investors globally reach for income. The Federal Reserve has backstopped the “fallen angels,” allowing many high-yield (HY) companies to refinance at ever-lower rates and extend upcoming maturities for another day. Strong equity markets are forecasting an earnings rebound, and the vaccines will bring brighter days soon. We continue to find attractive values in the short/intermediate portion of the high-quality HY market.</p>\n<p>We want to share a recent academic study with you regarding the risk and returns in the HY bond market: George Mason Universityrecently publisheda report on HY bond-fund returns and volatility relative to equities (S&amp;P 500). Since 1990, the average HY bond fund has delivered average annualized returns of 7.1% with a volatility of 7.7%. Over the same time period, the S&amp;P 500 delivered an average annualized return of 7.8%, but with almost double the volatility of 14.5%. The conclusion: HY bonds have paid total returns near those of the U.S. stock market with half of the volatility. We believe the HY market will offer competitive returns in the decade ahead, as equity valuations have risen and Treasury yields have plummeted. Our ability to utilize busted convertibles, preferreds, and special-situation income investments enhances our cash-flow opportunities.</p>\n<p>—Jason R. Graybill, Neil D. Klein</p>\n<p>Emerging Markets Blast Off</p>\n<p><i>PCM Report</i></p>\n<p><i>Peak Capital Management</i></p>\n<p>pcmstrategies.com</p>\n<p>Feb. 1: So far, 2021 has been a good year for emerging-market equities. Year to date, theiShares MSCI Emerging Marketsexchange-traded fund (EEM) is higher by roughly 8%, compared to a gain of approximately 3% for theSPDR S&amp;P 500ETF (SPY). Ever since the financial crisis of 2008, emerging markets collectively have woefully lagged U.S. equities.</p>\n<p>What could propel the asset class higher in 20201 and beyond? In the long term, the likely catalyst is demographics. Developed markets such as the U.S. and Europe have aging populations, which could suggest lower productivity and gross-domestic-product growth over the next decade compared to emerging-market economies.</p>\n<p>In its most recent capital-markets report, JPMorgan projected GDP growth across emerging markets to be 3.9% in 2021, compared to 1.6% across developed markets. The report suggests China and India will drive GDP growth, and emerging markets’ productivity and human capital will gradually converge to developed-market levels.</p>\n<p>—Clint Pekrul</p>","source":"lsy1601382232898","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title> Here’s What the GameStop Affair Has Taught Us</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n Here’s What the GameStop Affair Has Taught Us\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-02-08 18:51 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.barrons.com/articles/gamestop-episode-offers-lessons-for-investors-51612572300?mod=RTA><strong>Barrons</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>This commentary was issued recently by money managers, research firms, and market newsletter writers and has been edited by Barron’s.\nWhat GameStop Taught Us\nThe Weekly Speculator\nMarketfield Asset ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.barrons.com/articles/gamestop-episode-offers-lessons-for-investors-51612572300?mod=RTA\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"GME":"游戏驿站",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://www.barrons.com/articles/gamestop-episode-offers-lessons-for-investors-51612572300?mod=RTA","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1195153829","content_text":"This commentary was issued recently by money managers, research firms, and market newsletter writers and has been edited by Barron’s.\nWhat GameStop Taught Us\nThe Weekly Speculator\nMarketfield Asset Management\nmarketfield.com\nFeb. 4: After all is said and done, one of the most lasting effects of theGameStop(ticker: GME) episode will be to educate many market participants about the key role and ultimate power held by the clearing institution, the Depository Trust Company. One of the stranger aspects of the affair has been the attempt to paint it as some form of moral crusade, or an opportunity for the “little guy” to get even with Wall Street. The truth is that some large investors lost a great deal of money, while others were well rewarded, just as some small investors will have reaped life-changing sums while others will have lost funds that may prove to be equally impactful. In this sense, the market is a meritocracy, which isn’t quite the same as saying that it is always fair in delivering outcomes.\nWhat is also clear is that late January saw a very significant degrossing of levered hedge-fund investors, without causing a deep correction in the equity market. The S&P 500 essentially respected support at the 50-day moving average, and didn’t need to move down to 3600, which we had set as a “worst case” target. The Nasdaq 100, Russell 2000, and MSCI Emerging Markets Index didn’t need to touch their corresponding trend support, and all three indexes managed to generate a positive return in January, unlike the S&P 500, which registered a small loss. The subsequent bounce has been rapid and broad, as would be expected from a catalyst that was both technical and ephemeral in nature.\nThat it is not a wholly positive or inconsequential affair. The long bull market is now showing signs of developing into a historic mania. This doesn’t mean that a market peak is imminent, but the normative process—whereby what is “appropriate” is ultimately influenced by extremes—means that the levels of risk being taken by the average investor are probably significantly higher than they were pre-Covid.\n—Michael Shaoul, Timothy Brackett\nHeigh-Ho Silver!\nThe Aden Forecast Weekly Update\nThe Aden Forecast\nadenforecast.com\nFeb. 4: Silver caught on fire by zipping up to the August highs near $30 on Monday during the Reddit buying frenzy. Silver was strong anyway, and it’s been holding up well, so whoever pegged silver knew what they were doing. Silver shares also got a big boost upward, and while they have since calmed down, it looks like volatility will stay with us. Silver has been holding above its 15-week moving average since December, and it’ll remain strong by staying above it at $25. The next milestone to surpass is the $30 level, the highs for this bull market. If clearly broken, another leg up will be underway. Keep your silver and silver share positions.\n—Mary Anne and Pamela Aden\nHow to Play Oil’s Recent Rally\nDaily Insights\nBCA Research\nbcaresearch.com\nFeb 4: The recent oil rally will have consequences for asset prices beyond the energy market. While higher oil prices benefit oil exporters, they hurt the economies of oil importers, often with a lag.\nA great example of these dynamics is China. The Chinese economy is a large oil importer; hence, rising oil prices act as a tax on Chinese growth. Moreover, Chinese A shares massively overweight tech stocks, which receive no benefit from higher energy prices. In fact, over the past four years, increasing Brent prices reliably lead to a decline in on-shore domestic markets by roughly three months. The current setup is reminiscent of early 2018. Back then, Chinese A shares had been rallying for a few months after oil prices had started to rally. Ultimately, a deceleration in Chinese growth and cautious policy making from Beijing resulted in a powerful selloff of Chinese equities. Today, Chinese growth is once again decelerating and Beijing is conducting some significant regulatory tightening, while the People’s Bank of China is draining liquidity. Thus, a significant correction in Chinese shares is likely this spring.\nA lower-octane strategy to play these dynamics is to go long United Kingdom equities relative to Germany’s while espousing the implicit currency exposure. German equities are extremely underweight energy, and Germany imports its entire oil consumption. Meanwhile, the U.K. benchmark is replete with energy stocks and the U.K. remains an oil producer, even if it imports some of its oil (rising Brent represents a comparatively smaller tax on the U.K. economy). As a side benefit, the pound is very cheap against the euro and the U.K.’s vaccination campaign is massively ahead of the eurozone’s, which could result in earlier economic dividends north of the Channel and hurt the euro/pound in the process.\n—Mathieu Savary and Team\nHigh-Yield Opportunities\nCarret Credit Insight\nCarret Asset Mangaement\ncarret.com\nFeb. 3: At year-end 2020, the iBoxx High-Yield Index yielded 4.23%, an all-time low. Spreads also registered record tightness. Low yields aren’t a surprise as investors globally reach for income. The Federal Reserve has backstopped the “fallen angels,” allowing many high-yield (HY) companies to refinance at ever-lower rates and extend upcoming maturities for another day. Strong equity markets are forecasting an earnings rebound, and the vaccines will bring brighter days soon. We continue to find attractive values in the short/intermediate portion of the high-quality HY market.\nWe want to share a recent academic study with you regarding the risk and returns in the HY bond market: George Mason Universityrecently publisheda report on HY bond-fund returns and volatility relative to equities (S&P 500). Since 1990, the average HY bond fund has delivered average annualized returns of 7.1% with a volatility of 7.7%. Over the same time period, the S&P 500 delivered an average annualized return of 7.8%, but with almost double the volatility of 14.5%. The conclusion: HY bonds have paid total returns near those of the U.S. stock market with half of the volatility. We believe the HY market will offer competitive returns in the decade ahead, as equity valuations have risen and Treasury yields have plummeted. Our ability to utilize busted convertibles, preferreds, and special-situation income investments enhances our cash-flow opportunities.\n—Jason R. Graybill, Neil D. Klein\nEmerging Markets Blast Off\nPCM Report\nPeak Capital Management\npcmstrategies.com\nFeb. 1: So far, 2021 has been a good year for emerging-market equities. Year to date, theiShares MSCI Emerging Marketsexchange-traded fund (EEM) is higher by roughly 8%, compared to a gain of approximately 3% for theSPDR S&P 500ETF (SPY). Ever since the financial crisis of 2008, emerging markets collectively have woefully lagged U.S. equities.\nWhat could propel the asset class higher in 20201 and beyond? In the long term, the likely catalyst is demographics. Developed markets such as the U.S. and Europe have aging populations, which could suggest lower productivity and gross-domestic-product growth over the next decade compared to emerging-market economies.\nIn its most recent capital-markets report, JPMorgan projected GDP growth across emerging markets to be 3.9% in 2021, compared to 1.6% across developed markets. The report suggests China and India will drive GDP growth, and emerging markets’ productivity and human capital will gradually converge to developed-market levels.\n—Clint Pekrul","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":78,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}