hminjoon的个人主页 - 老虎社区

hminjoon

hminjoon

暂无个人介绍

IP属地：未知

1关注

0粉丝

0主题

0勋章

2021-07-22

FUD

Entering The Worst Seasonal Period Of The Year, And 10 Other Reasons Why Goldman Braces For An August Correction

2021-07-22

FUD

Entering The Worst Seasonal Period Of The Year, And 10 Other Reasons Why Goldman Braces For An August Correction

2021-06-29

Sick..

Nvidia shares rose more than 5% to a new high

2021-06-24

Moooon

抱歉，原内容已删除

2021-06-09

Good stuff

2021-06-09

🚀🚀

Meme stock frenzy is distracting investors from 'huge opportunities,' Datatrek says

2021-06-09

🚀

抱歉，原内容已删除

去老虎APP查看更多动态

{"i18n":{"language":"zh_CN"},"userPageInfo":{"id":"3575190540714273","uuid":"3575190540714273","gmtCreate":1612096517208,"gmtModify":1623247198030,"name":"hminjoon","pinyin":"hminjoon","introduction":"","introductionEn":"","signature":"","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/84d00aa235bffbcf955ca0b965aeb40d","hat":null,"hatId":null,"hatName":null,"vip":1,"status":2,"fanSize":0,"headSize":1,"tweetSize":7,"questionSize":0,"limitLevel":999,"accountStatus":4,"level":{"id":1,"name":"萌萌虎","nameTw":"萌萌虎","represent":"呱呱坠地","factor":"评论帖子3次或发布1条主帖（非转发）","iconColor":"3C9E83","bgColor":"A2F1D9"},"themeCounts":0,"badgeCounts":0,"badges":[],"moderator":false,"superModerator":false,"manageSymbols":null,"badgeLevel":null,"boolIsFan":false,"boolIsHead":false,"favoriteSize":0,"symbols":null,"coverImage":null,"realNameVerified":null,"userBadges":[{"badgeId":"228c86a078844d74991fff2b7ab2428d-1","templateUuid":"228c86a078844d74991fff2b7ab2428d","name":"投资经理虎","description":"证券账户累计交易金额达到10万美元","bigImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c8dfc27c1ee0e25db1c93e9d0b641101","smallImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f43908c142f8a33c78f5bdf0e2897488","grayImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/82165ff19cb8a786e8919f92acee5213","redirectLinkEnabled":0,"redirectLink":null,"hasAllocated":1,"isWearing":0,"stamp":null,"stampPosition":0,"hasStamp":0,"allocationCount":1,"allocatedDate":"2023.07.14","exceedPercentage":"60.48%","individualDisplayEnabled":0,"backgroundColor":null,"fontColor":null,"individualDisplaySort":0,"categoryType":1101},{"badgeId":"e50ce593bb40487ebfb542ca54f6a561-1","templateUuid":"e50ce593bb40487ebfb542ca54f6a561","name":"出道虎友","description":"加入老虎社区500天","bigImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0e4d0ca1da0456dc7894c946d44bf9ab","smallImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0f2f65e8ce4cfaae8db2bea9b127f58b","grayImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c5948a31b6edf154422335b265235809","redirectLinkEnabled":0,"redirectLink":null,"hasAllocated":1,"isWearing":0,"stamp":null,"stampPosition":0,"hasStamp":0,"allocationCount":1,"allocatedDate":"2022.10.04","exceedPercentage":null,"individualDisplayEnabled":0,"backgroundColor":null,"fontColor":null,"individualDisplaySort":0,"categoryType":1001},{"badgeId":"976c19eed35f4cd78f17501c2e99ef37-1","templateUuid":"976c19eed35f4cd78f17501c2e99ef37","name":"博闻投资者","description":"累计交易超过10只正股","bigImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e74cc24115c4fbae6154ec1b1041bf47","smallImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d48265cbfd97c57f9048db29f22227b0","grayImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/76c6d6898b073c77e1c537ebe9ac1c57","redirectLinkEnabled":0,"redirectLink":null,"hasAllocated":1,"isWearing":0,"stamp":null,"stampPosition":0,"hasStamp":0,"allocationCount":1,"allocatedDate":"2022.08.13","exceedPercentage":null,"individualDisplayEnabled":0,"backgroundColor":null,"fontColor":null,"individualDisplaySort":0,"categoryType":1102},{"badgeId":"35ec162348d5460f88c959321e554969-1","templateUuid":"35ec162348d5460f88c959321e554969","name":"精英交易员","description":"证券或期货账户累计交易次数达到30次","bigImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ab0f87127c854ce3191a752d57b46edc","smallImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c9835ce48b8c8743566d344ac7a7ba8c","grayImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/76754b53ce7a90019f132c1d2fbc698f","redirectLinkEnabled":0,"redirectLink":null,"hasAllocated":1,"isWearing":0,"stamp":null,"stampPosition":0,"hasStamp":0,"allocationCount":1,"allocatedDate":"2022.08.13","exceedPercentage":"60.53%","individualDisplayEnabled":0,"backgroundColor":null,"fontColor":null,"individualDisplaySort":0,"categoryType":1100},{"badgeId":"518b5610c3e8410da5cfad115e4b0f5a-1","templateUuid":"518b5610c3e8410da5cfad115e4b0f5a","name":"实盘交易者","description":"完成一笔实盘交易","bigImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2e08a1cc2087a1de93402c2c290fa65b","smallImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4504a6397ce1137932d56e5f4ce27166","grayImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4b22c79415b4cd6e3d8ebc4a0fa32604","redirectLinkEnabled":0,"redirectLink":null,"hasAllocated":1,"isWearing":0,"stamp":null,"stampPosition":0,"hasStamp":0,"allocationCount":1,"allocatedDate":"2021.12.21","exceedPercentage":null,"individualDisplayEnabled":0,"backgroundColor":null,"fontColor":null,"individualDisplaySort":0,"categoryType":1100}],"userBadgeCount":5,"currentWearingBadge":null,"individualDisplayBadges":null,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"location":"未知","starInvestorFollowerNum":0,"starInvestorFlag":false,"starInvestorOrderShareNum":0,"subscribeStarInvestorNum":0,"ror":null,"winRationPercentage":null,"showRor":false,"investmentPhilosophy":null,"starInvestorSubscribeFlag":false},"baikeInfo":{},"tab":"post","tweets":[{"id":172882810,"gmtCreate":1626951731930,"gmtModify":1633769458451,"author":{"id":"3575190540714273","authorId":"3575190540714273","name":"hminjoon","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/84d00aa235bffbcf955ca0b965aeb40d","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3575190540714273","authorIdStr":"3575190540714273"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"FUD","listText":"FUD","text":"FUD","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/172882810","repostId":"1192458370","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1192458370","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1626938362,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1192458370?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-07-22 15:19","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Entering The Worst Seasonal Period Of The Year, And 10 Other Reasons Why Goldman Braces For An August Correction","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1192458370","media":"zerohedge","summary":"In a stark reversal to its bullish sentiment at the start of the month, when the bank first noted - ","content":"<p>In a stark reversal to its bullish sentiment at the start of the month, when the bank first noted - correctly - that the S&amp;P was entering itsbest 2-week seasonal period of the yearwhich it did between July 1 and 15 when it posted a series of new all time highs (before dumping on the 16th and the 19th)...</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e7dc88222112e4655f492c56509f9d64\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"467\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>... followed by a lengthy rationalization why \"the shorts will have to cover\", Goldman has been turning surprisingly bearish in recent days, and two days after Goldman flow trader John Flood urged Goldman clients \"not to buy this dip\" on Monday (spoiler alert: they did) his trading desk colleague Scott Rubner has published a report previewing why he anticipates a correction in the coming days and continuing through the Jackson Hole symposium at the end of August.</p>\n<p>His note, from which we excerpt below, contains the key arguments behind Goldman's August \"correction\" thesis, including tactical flow of funds, an acceleration of sellers, and feedback from the GS equity trading floor.</p>\n<p>So without further ado, here is Rubner, who lays out his \"<b><i>11 point checklist for an August correction\"</i></b>, starting by noting that \"<i>the #1 question that has hit my inbox/IB in the past 48 hours. What happens to the equity market when there is an outflow and buy demand slows?</i>\" As we read below, the most appropriate answer is \"nothing good.\"</p>\n<blockquote>\n <i>11 point Checklist - Consensus client feedback for a quick equity risk reduction into potentially lower buy demand into Jackson hole. The consensus feedback seems to be calling for a -5% correction, which really gets to -4%. This is a recap of the talking points about to hit your inbox this week. I think this morning’s rally gets faded as buy tickets are completed early in the day.</i> \n <i><b>“Selling rallies” is the new dynamic vs. buying dips.</b></i>\n</blockquote>\n<p><u><b>1. Weak Seasonals</b></u>- Since 1928, we just exited the best two-week period of the year. Friday’s option expiry ended the best seasonal period of the year.<b>August seasonals are not market friendly and trend lower all of August, for the 4th worst two-week seasonal period of the year</b>. Today you are here and Jackson hole is the low point of this chart. Since 1950, there have been 19 times in 72 years that the S&amp;P is up at least &gt;10% through the first half of the year. The median return for August specifically, following a strong 1H is typically down -51bps, before rallying higher.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f41d55d3d45aecb40b0f24e53de17363\" tg-width=\"694\" tg-height=\"499\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p><u><b>2. Largest outflows of the year</b></u>- Investors allocate capital into the market in July and we have seen these record inflows. This is the biggest dynamic in the equity market this year period. Inflows continue at a record pace, annualizing at $1.2 trillion inflows for 2021. 401k inflows predominately flowed in S&amp;P and NDX rather than ROW.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9d67c2e0a1590d44ff3be03c2c86c88e\" tg-width=\"645\" tg-height=\"368\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a58d02645303f22b7e53b58698e11f56\" tg-width=\"508\" tg-height=\"338\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p><u><b>3. Reversal of flows predicted for August</b></u>- Equity inflows are not common in August. Over the last 30 years,<b>August typically sees the largest outflows of the year</b>. -15bps of AUM typically leaves stock market funds in August, on ~22 Trillion, we model -$33B worth of equities for sale.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3308ac184f4fde82ba6c27fbcfbdd86f\" tg-width=\"579\" tg-height=\"340\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/005f51048f49a72597db950884245e8c\" tg-width=\"563\" tg-height=\"351\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p><b><u>4. Outflows cont.</u></b>To be clear, -$33B is not a significant $ figure when adjusted for market cap, however more important is that it’s not an inflow. The index level has remained at ATHs given inflows bid up the largest and biggest market cap index weights. On Monday we saw a large MOC imbalance for sale, this was unusual.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d98939cb6e06e80bc643fdca6801fb0a\" tg-width=\"268\" tg-height=\"474\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p><u><b>5. Passive flows drive largest marketcaps</b></u>- Passive ETFs logged the best full year of inflows on record, in just the first half of the year. (+500b). I watch the tape every day register large MOC imbalances to buy at 3:50pm EST,<b>but what if this dynamic fades.</b>Remember $1 inflow into SPY flows $.23 cents into top 5 companies and $1 inflow into QQQ flows $.41 cents into top 5. If inflows flip to outflows you will no longer see broad index dynamic.<b>Then investors need to decide which sector becomes the funding source for outflows.</b></p>\n<p>Just how important has this been for the S&amp;P 500? Important!</p>\n<ul>\n <li>Global Equity: 1-year: +$600B passive (IN) vs. $0.0B active (OUT) = &gt;$600B.</li>\n <li>Global Equity: 5-year: +$2.30T passive (IN) vs. -$1.90T active (OUT) = &gt;$4.2T</li>\n <li>Global Equity: 10-year: +$4T passive (IN) vs. -$3.0T active (OUT) = &gt;$7.0T</li>\n <li>Current Global Equity Active AUM of $10.099T exceeds &gt; Current Global Equity Passive AUM $7.225 T.</li>\n</ul>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/72aadadcd243a659f1e3cc9fc8f75c1b\" tg-width=\"666\" tg-height=\"375\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5419e040f7d023061743d473ffef59d1\" tg-width=\"666\" tg-height=\"375\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4fff3382eec0b783b12411fb653c6718\" tg-width=\"663\" tg-height=\"377\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p><i>Side note: ETFs represented 36% of the notional executed volumes, last levels since in March/April 2020. (YTD average) = 24%. Did you see the massive volumes in SQQQ Monday (3x short QQQ)?</i></p>\n<p><u><b>6. Single Stock Calls</b></u>- This is set up is very similar to July and August 2020 blow-off top as a result of call option trading. Reminder, S&amp;P sold off -392bps in September 2020 after call option volumes started to fade.</p>\n<ul>\n <li>Option notional has averaged an all-time record of +$550B per day in July. The top 3 traded stocks (AAPL, AMZN, and TSLA) make up $300B of daily volumes. Breadth in both options and stocks is low.</li>\n <li>\"Of 4000 Tradeable Single Stock options, the top 3 names make up 56% of the daily avg notional traded. Adding in the next 7, that ratio jumps to 72%.\"</li>\n <li>\"Said another way the top 10 underliers trade 3x more notional on an average day than the bottom 3990”</li>\n <li>This is an important dynamic to monitor.</li>\n</ul>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/be539bca2d8b556e65d32bbe28f2abb4\" tg-width=\"676\" tg-height=\"441\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p><u><b>7. Call Options cont.</b></u>- Retail has pivoted from trading weekly call options on GME and AMC - only $6B combined notional per day to the stay-at-home playbook. The names with the highest daily option trading are also the largest index weights. In addition to ETF flows, the retail call option buying frenzy also takes the street short weekly gamma on single names. 75% of single stock options traded today have an expiry of two weeks or less.<b>Said another way, given GS YOLO risk sentiment basket has rolled over, does AAPL need to catch down next (or at least not see YOLO flows).</b></p>\n<p>$181bln/day AMZN</p>\n<p>$ 82bln/day TSLA</p>\n<p>$ 36bln/day AAPL</p>\n<p>--------------</p>\n<p><b>TOTAL TSLA/AMZN/AAPL: $299bln/day&nbsp; ------- What happens if call volume in mega cap tech declines?</b></p>\n<ul>\n <li>$ 26bln/day NVDA</li>\n <li>$ 14bln/day GOOGL</li>\n <li>$ 11bln/day FB</li>\n <li>$ 10bln/day MSFT</li>\n <li>$&nbsp; 8bln/day SHOP</li>\n <li>$&nbsp; 8bln/day GOOG</li>\n <li>$&nbsp; 8bln/day NFLX</li>\n <li>$&nbsp; 7bln/day BABA</li>\n</ul>\n<p>--------------</p>\n<p><b>TOTAL GOOG/GOOGL/MSFT/FB/NFLX/NVDA/SHOP/BABA: $90bln/day</b></p>\n<ul>\n <li>$&nbsp; 4bln/day AMC</li>\n <li>$&nbsp; 2bln/day GME</li>\n</ul>\n<p>--------------</p>\n<p><b>TOTAL AMC/GME: $6bln/day&nbsp; ------- No Mo’ Yolo? See chart below.</b></p>\n<p>All other underlyings: $141bln/day</p>\n<p><u><i><b>Total single stock option market:</b></i></u></p>\n<ul>\n <li>$299bln/day TSLA/AMZN/AAPL</li>\n <li>$ 90bln/day GOOG/GOOGL/MSFT/FB/NFLX/NVDA/SHOP/BABA</li>\n <li>$&nbsp; 6bln/day AMC/GME</li>\n <li>$141bln/day All other underlyings</li>\n</ul>\n<p>--------------------</p>\n<p><b>$537bln/day Total</b></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1f5678ad5b66dd918c2cbb51263c9df0\" tg-width=\"650\" tg-height=\"450\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p><b><u>8. Option Gamma Unwinds</u></b>- Option Expiry just rolled off -85% of the market long gamma. The market now has the ability to move more freely and trade less long gamma. Everyday last week the market would rally into the bell as dealers re-hedge their gamma (buying the dips). I get worried about summer end-of-day liquidity without gamma hedging and passive demand. I think there will be also a “institutional” demand to buy hedges into Jackson Hole fulling removing the long gamma taking the street short to hedge downside. We have seen more puts and put spreads on the desk this week than any week of 2021.</p>\n<ul>\n <li>Wednesday (7/14) SPX gamma = +$4,625B</li>\n <li>Thursday (7/15) SPX gamma = +$3,620B</li>\n <li>Friday (7/16) SPX gamma = +$3,136B</li>\n <li>Monday (7/19) SPX gamma = +$2,698B</li>\n <li>Tuesday (7/20) SPX Gamma = +$713B.</li>\n</ul>\n<p><b>the Long S&amp;P 500 gamma has been reduced by -85% in the past 5 days taking dealers less long gamma.</b>This dynamic changes market behavior and we are seeing little demand to systematically overwrite from here even despite the move higher in vols. This is new.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b78215d53696f99f4c746f296ae2d225\" tg-width=\"797\" tg-height=\"598\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p><u><b>9. Systematic</b></u>- Non-economic is already near the max exposure and have little scope to add further from here. No threshold levels have triggered so far, but it is important to note the lack of ability to add from here, which asymmetrically skews the downside.</p>\n<ul>\n <li><b>CTA</b>- 90% percentile on 1-year rank, 84% percentile on 3-yr rank.</li>\n <li><b>GS models</b>-$9B of equities for sale over the next week. CTA’s are sellers in an up tape, down tape, down big tape. That’s not common. Check out big asymmetry to the downside over the next 1 month.</li>\n <li><b>GS short term CTA ES1 Flip Level</b>= $4,257.90. We tripped this circuit breaker yesterday, but are higher this am. I expect GS sell expectations to increase.</li>\n</ul>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3efe5f0b54f671b5c1b366ff5514cf5c\" tg-width=\"751\" tg-height=\"323\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/232a48ec7525cb179f6cd8bc285b7e55\" tg-width=\"499\" tg-height=\"300\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p><b>b) Vol Control - 86% percentile on 1-year rank, 75% percentile on 3-yr rank. FYI. SPX Put/Call Ratio hit a fresh 1 year high yesterday.</b></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a5553785fd8a0a66e717f5579ba6ee91\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"300\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p><b>c) Risk Parity - 100% percentile on 1-year rank, 53% percentile on 3-yr rank.</b></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9be4d94aa1cd38dad335c1424d3be626\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"300\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p><b>d) Total Systematic - 92% percentile on 1-year rank, 80% percentile on 3-yr rank. This is important. This non-emotional demand is at the max and will be sellers lower.</b></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4068fa4e9a8c6c06f77627c9ee6e07b8\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"300\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p><u><b>10. Liquidity</b></u>- The unofficial Rubner out of office outlook (OOO) reply meter. My note last week has week had the largest out of office kickbacks to the tune of “see you in a few weeks” or “gone fishing”. The upcoming calendar into Jackson Hole is important.</p>\n<ol>\n <li>next few weeks, extended vacation schedule first time in 12 months, etc, moved forward because Jackson hole.</li>\n <li>Jackson Hole, August 26 (Thursday) - August 28 (Saturday) – Friday is the likely the key calendar, but potentially Saturday will be important. This moves hedges to the following week.</li>\n <li>Labor Day, September 6 (Monday exchange holiday) - late this year</li>\n <li>approximate First day of Children’s school, September 7 (Tuesday)</li>\n <li>Liquidity = August Summer – ZZZZ. Top book liquidity declined SUBSTANTIALLY into the sell off yesterday.</li>\n</ol>\n<p>*** despite being ranked 10 in the checklist. This is really chart #1. Liquidity dried up substantially yesterday on the screens. This chart peaked at $36M last Monday to $10.810M yesterday. This is a drop of $25M $ or ~70% in on screws liquidity in 1 week.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/60db9087f28d7496be38eafbc0fa755e\" tg-width=\"650\" tg-height=\"450\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p><u><b>11. Buybacks</b></u>: Buybacks are here, but so is equity issuance, which neutralizes the buyback impulse. As corporates meet corporates. From Sales and trading colleague, John Flood in his most recent trading note.</p>\n<p><i>“It has been a paper party and this paper is getting harder to place. Last week we priced 11 registered deals in the U.S. ($3b notional) and this week already working on another 18 ($10b). This is especially noteworthy while in the depths of July.“</i></p>\n<ul>\n <li>Last week there was $6.2 billion in equity issuance, compared with the July weekly average of $3.4 billion since 2000.</li>\n <li>Last week there were 27 equity deals brought to market, compared with the July average of 15 deals per week since 2000.</li>\n</ul>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b680be938f506ba528c382fdb7d805ba\" tg-width=\"897\" tg-height=\"606\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p><i><b>Bottom Line:</b></i><i>Keep Tactical Flow of Funds Checklist on your radar for August. The technical market structure dynamics changes substantially during August</i><i><b>. I think there will be a dip (-5%) and it is meant to be bought heading late into Jackson Hole.</b></i><i>The consensus is calling for a larger equity market correction, I do not see it given the amount of capital in the system. I change my tone if we trigger key levels to the downside as sellers are lower. If August outflows actually happen, I think tech underperforms cyclical value reopen given high concentration and largest passive impact.</i><i><b>Once we see the first outflow in August, this will be the macro trigger for a tactical short</b></i><i>. Stay tuned and keep an eye on liquidity.</i></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Entering The Worst Seasonal Period Of The Year, And 10 Other Reasons Why Goldman Braces For An August Correction</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nEntering The Worst Seasonal Period Of The Year, And 10 Other Reasons Why Goldman Braces For An August Correction\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-07-22 15:19 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/entering-worst-seasonal-period-year-and-10-other-reasons-why-goldman-braces-august><strong>zerohedge</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>In a stark reversal to its bullish sentiment at the start of the month, when the bank first noted - correctly - that the S&P was entering itsbest 2-week seasonal period of the yearwhich it did between...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/entering-worst-seasonal-period-year-and-10-other-reasons-why-goldman-braces-august\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"SPY":"标普500ETF",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/entering-worst-seasonal-period-year-and-10-other-reasons-why-goldman-braces-august","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1192458370","content_text":"In a stark reversal to its bullish sentiment at the start of the month, when the bank first noted - correctly - that the S&P was entering itsbest 2-week seasonal period of the yearwhich it did between July 1 and 15 when it posted a series of new all time highs (before dumping on the 16th and the 19th)...\n\n... followed by a lengthy rationalization why \"the shorts will have to cover\", Goldman has been turning surprisingly bearish in recent days, and two days after Goldman flow trader John Flood urged Goldman clients \"not to buy this dip\" on Monday (spoiler alert: they did) his trading desk colleague Scott Rubner has published a report previewing why he anticipates a correction in the coming days and continuing through the Jackson Hole symposium at the end of August.\nHis note, from which we excerpt below, contains the key arguments behind Goldman's August \"correction\" thesis, including tactical flow of funds, an acceleration of sellers, and feedback from the GS equity trading floor.\nSo without further ado, here is Rubner, who lays out his \"11 point checklist for an August correction\", starting by noting that \"the #1 question that has hit my inbox/IB in the past 48 hours. What happens to the equity market when there is an outflow and buy demand slows?\" As we read below, the most appropriate answer is \"nothing good.\"\n\n11 point Checklist - Consensus client feedback for a quick equity risk reduction into potentially lower buy demand into Jackson hole. The consensus feedback seems to be calling for a -5% correction, which really gets to -4%. This is a recap of the talking points about to hit your inbox this week. I think this morning’s rally gets faded as buy tickets are completed early in the day.\n“Selling rallies” is the new dynamic vs. buying dips.\n\n1. Weak Seasonals- Since 1928, we just exited the best two-week period of the year. Friday’s option expiry ended the best seasonal period of the year.August seasonals are not market friendly and trend lower all of August, for the 4th worst two-week seasonal period of the year. Today you are here and Jackson hole is the low point of this chart. Since 1950, there have been 19 times in 72 years that the S&P is up at least >10% through the first half of the year. The median return for August specifically, following a strong 1H is typically down -51bps, before rallying higher.\n\n2. Largest outflows of the year- Investors allocate capital into the market in July and we have seen these record inflows. This is the biggest dynamic in the equity market this year period. Inflows continue at a record pace, annualizing at $1.2 trillion inflows for 2021. 401k inflows predominately flowed in S&P and NDX rather than ROW.\n\n3. Reversal of flows predicted for August- Equity inflows are not common in August. Over the last 30 years,August typically sees the largest outflows of the year. -15bps of AUM typically leaves stock market funds in August, on ~22 Trillion, we model -$33B worth of equities for sale.\n\n4. Outflows cont.To be clear, -$33B is not a significant $ figure when adjusted for market cap, however more important is that it’s not an inflow. The index level has remained at ATHs given inflows bid up the largest and biggest market cap index weights. On Monday we saw a large MOC imbalance for sale, this was unusual.\n\n5. Passive flows drive largest marketcaps- Passive ETFs logged the best full year of inflows on record, in just the first half of the year. (+500b). I watch the tape every day register large MOC imbalances to buy at 3:50pm EST,but what if this dynamic fades.Remember $1 inflow into SPY flows $.23 cents into top 5 companies and $1 inflow into QQQ flows $.41 cents into top 5. If inflows flip to outflows you will no longer see broad index dynamic.Then investors need to decide which sector becomes the funding source for outflows.\nJust how important has this been for the S&P 500? Important!\n\nGlobal Equity: 1-year: +$600B passive (IN) vs. $0.0B active (OUT) = >$600B.\nGlobal Equity: 5-year: +$2.30T passive (IN) vs. -$1.90T active (OUT) = >$4.2T\nGlobal Equity: 10-year: +$4T passive (IN) vs. -$3.0T active (OUT) = >$7.0T\nCurrent Global Equity Active AUM of $10.099T exceeds > Current Global Equity Passive AUM $7.225 T.\n\n\nSide note: ETFs represented 36% of the notional executed volumes, last levels since in March/April 2020. (YTD average) = 24%. Did you see the massive volumes in SQQQ Monday (3x short QQQ)?\n6. Single Stock Calls- This is set up is very similar to July and August 2020 blow-off top as a result of call option trading. Reminder, S&P sold off -392bps in September 2020 after call option volumes started to fade.\n\nOption notional has averaged an all-time record of +$550B per day in July. The top 3 traded stocks (AAPL, AMZN, and TSLA) make up $300B of daily volumes. Breadth in both options and stocks is low.\n\"Of 4000 Tradeable Single Stock options, the top 3 names make up 56% of the daily avg notional traded. Adding in the next 7, that ratio jumps to 72%.\"\n\"Said another way the top 10 underliers trade 3x more notional on an average day than the bottom 3990”\nThis is an important dynamic to monitor.\n\n\n7. Call Options cont.- Retail has pivoted from trading weekly call options on GME and AMC - only $6B combined notional per day to the stay-at-home playbook. The names with the highest daily option trading are also the largest index weights. In addition to ETF flows, the retail call option buying frenzy also takes the street short weekly gamma on single names. 75% of single stock options traded today have an expiry of two weeks or less.Said another way, given GS YOLO risk sentiment basket has rolled over, does AAPL need to catch down next (or at least not see YOLO flows).\n$181bln/day AMZN\n$ 82bln/day TSLA\n$ 36bln/day AAPL\n--------------\nTOTAL TSLA/AMZN/AAPL: $299bln/day  ------- What happens if call volume in mega cap tech declines?\n\n$ 26bln/day NVDA\n$ 14bln/day GOOGL\n$ 11bln/day FB\n$ 10bln/day MSFT\n$  8bln/day SHOP\n$  8bln/day GOOG\n$  8bln/day NFLX\n$  7bln/day BABA\n\n--------------\nTOTAL GOOG/GOOGL/MSFT/FB/NFLX/NVDA/SHOP/BABA: $90bln/day\n\n$  4bln/day AMC\n$  2bln/day GME\n\n--------------\nTOTAL AMC/GME: $6bln/day  ------- No Mo’ Yolo? See chart below.\nAll other underlyings: $141bln/day\nTotal single stock option market:\n\n$299bln/day TSLA/AMZN/AAPL\n$ 90bln/day GOOG/GOOGL/MSFT/FB/NFLX/NVDA/SHOP/BABA\n$  6bln/day AMC/GME\n$141bln/day All other underlyings\n\n--------------------\n$537bln/day Total\n\n8. Option Gamma Unwinds- Option Expiry just rolled off -85% of the market long gamma. The market now has the ability to move more freely and trade less long gamma. Everyday last week the market would rally into the bell as dealers re-hedge their gamma (buying the dips). I get worried about summer end-of-day liquidity without gamma hedging and passive demand. I think there will be also a “institutional” demand to buy hedges into Jackson Hole fulling removing the long gamma taking the street short to hedge downside. We have seen more puts and put spreads on the desk this week than any week of 2021.\n\nWednesday (7/14) SPX gamma = +$4,625B\nThursday (7/15) SPX gamma = +$3,620B\nFriday (7/16) SPX gamma = +$3,136B\nMonday (7/19) SPX gamma = +$2,698B\nTuesday (7/20) SPX Gamma = +$713B.\n\nthe Long S&P 500 gamma has been reduced by -85% in the past 5 days taking dealers less long gamma.This dynamic changes market behavior and we are seeing little demand to systematically overwrite from here even despite the move higher in vols. This is new.\n\n9. Systematic- Non-economic is already near the max exposure and have little scope to add further from here. No threshold levels have triggered so far, but it is important to note the lack of ability to add from here, which asymmetrically skews the downside.\n\nCTA- 90% percentile on 1-year rank, 84% percentile on 3-yr rank.\nGS models-$9B of equities for sale over the next week. CTA’s are sellers in an up tape, down tape, down big tape. That’s not common. Check out big asymmetry to the downside over the next 1 month.\nGS short term CTA ES1 Flip Level= $4,257.90. We tripped this circuit breaker yesterday, but are higher this am. I expect GS sell expectations to increase.\n\n\nb) Vol Control - 86% percentile on 1-year rank, 75% percentile on 3-yr rank. FYI. SPX Put/Call Ratio hit a fresh 1 year high yesterday.\n\nc) Risk Parity - 100% percentile on 1-year rank, 53% percentile on 3-yr rank.\n\nd) Total Systematic - 92% percentile on 1-year rank, 80% percentile on 3-yr rank. This is important. This non-emotional demand is at the max and will be sellers lower.\n\n10. Liquidity- The unofficial Rubner out of office outlook (OOO) reply meter. My note last week has week had the largest out of office kickbacks to the tune of “see you in a few weeks” or “gone fishing”. The upcoming calendar into Jackson Hole is important.\n\nnext few weeks, extended vacation schedule first time in 12 months, etc, moved forward because Jackson hole.\nJackson Hole, August 26 (Thursday) - August 28 (Saturday) – Friday is the likely the key calendar, but potentially Saturday will be important. This moves hedges to the following week.\nLabor Day, September 6 (Monday exchange holiday) - late this year\napproximate First day of Children’s school, September 7 (Tuesday)\nLiquidity = August Summer – ZZZZ. Top book liquidity declined SUBSTANTIALLY into the sell off yesterday.\n\n*** despite being ranked 10 in the checklist. This is really chart #1. Liquidity dried up substantially yesterday on the screens. This chart peaked at $36M last Monday to $10.810M yesterday. This is a drop of $25M $ or ~70% in on screws liquidity in 1 week.\n\n11. Buybacks: Buybacks are here, but so is equity issuance, which neutralizes the buyback impulse. As corporates meet corporates. From Sales and trading colleague, John Flood in his most recent trading note.\n“It has been a paper party and this paper is getting harder to place. Last week we priced 11 registered deals in the U.S. ($3b notional) and this week already working on another 18 ($10b). This is especially noteworthy while in the depths of July.“\n\nLast week there was $6.2 billion in equity issuance, compared with the July weekly average of $3.4 billion since 2000.\nLast week there were 27 equity deals brought to market, compared with the July average of 15 deals per week since 2000.\n\n\nBottom Line:Keep Tactical Flow of Funds Checklist on your radar for August. The technical market structure dynamics changes substantially during August. I think there will be a dip (-5%) and it is meant to be bought heading late into Jackson Hole.The consensus is calling for a larger equity market correction, I do not see it given the amount of capital in the system. I change my tone if we trigger key levels to the downside as sellers are lower. If August outflows actually happen, I think tech underperforms cyclical value reopen given high concentration and largest passive impact.Once we see the first outflow in August, this will be the macro trigger for a tactical short. Stay tuned and keep an eye on liquidity.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":823,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":172882146,"gmtCreate":1626951719785,"gmtModify":1633769458573,"author":{"id":"3575190540714273","authorId":"3575190540714273","name":"hminjoon","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/84d00aa235bffbcf955ca0b965aeb40d","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3575190540714273","authorIdStr":"3575190540714273"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"FUD","listText":"FUD","text":"FUD","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/172882146","repostId":"1192458370","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1192458370","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1626938362,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1192458370?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-07-22 15:19","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Entering The Worst Seasonal Period Of The Year, And 10 Other Reasons Why Goldman Braces For An August Correction","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1192458370","media":"zerohedge","summary":"In a stark reversal to its bullish sentiment at the start of the month, when the bank first noted - ","content":"<p>In a stark reversal to its bullish sentiment at the start of the month, when the bank first noted - correctly - that the S&amp;P was entering itsbest 2-week seasonal period of the yearwhich it did between July 1 and 15 when it posted a series of new all time highs (before dumping on the 16th and the 19th)...</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e7dc88222112e4655f492c56509f9d64\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"467\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>... followed by a lengthy rationalization why \"the shorts will have to cover\", Goldman has been turning surprisingly bearish in recent days, and two days after Goldman flow trader John Flood urged Goldman clients \"not to buy this dip\" on Monday (spoiler alert: they did) his trading desk colleague Scott Rubner has published a report previewing why he anticipates a correction in the coming days and continuing through the Jackson Hole symposium at the end of August.</p>\n<p>His note, from which we excerpt below, contains the key arguments behind Goldman's August \"correction\" thesis, including tactical flow of funds, an acceleration of sellers, and feedback from the GS equity trading floor.</p>\n<p>So without further ado, here is Rubner, who lays out his \"<b><i>11 point checklist for an August correction\"</i></b>, starting by noting that \"<i>the #1 question that has hit my inbox/IB in the past 48 hours. What happens to the equity market when there is an outflow and buy demand slows?</i>\" As we read below, the most appropriate answer is \"nothing good.\"</p>\n<blockquote>\n <i>11 point Checklist - Consensus client feedback for a quick equity risk reduction into potentially lower buy demand into Jackson hole. The consensus feedback seems to be calling for a -5% correction, which really gets to -4%. This is a recap of the talking points about to hit your inbox this week. I think this morning’s rally gets faded as buy tickets are completed early in the day.</i> \n <i><b>“Selling rallies” is the new dynamic vs. buying dips.</b></i>\n</blockquote>\n<p><u><b>1. Weak Seasonals</b></u>- Since 1928, we just exited the best two-week period of the year. Friday’s option expiry ended the best seasonal period of the year.<b>August seasonals are not market friendly and trend lower all of August, for the 4th worst two-week seasonal period of the year</b>. Today you are here and Jackson hole is the low point of this chart. Since 1950, there have been 19 times in 72 years that the S&amp;P is up at least &gt;10% through the first half of the year. The median return for August specifically, following a strong 1H is typically down -51bps, before rallying higher.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f41d55d3d45aecb40b0f24e53de17363\" tg-width=\"694\" tg-height=\"499\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p><u><b>2. Largest outflows of the year</b></u>- Investors allocate capital into the market in July and we have seen these record inflows. This is the biggest dynamic in the equity market this year period. Inflows continue at a record pace, annualizing at $1.2 trillion inflows for 2021. 401k inflows predominately flowed in S&amp;P and NDX rather than ROW.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9d67c2e0a1590d44ff3be03c2c86c88e\" tg-width=\"645\" tg-height=\"368\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a58d02645303f22b7e53b58698e11f56\" tg-width=\"508\" tg-height=\"338\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p><u><b>3. Reversal of flows predicted for August</b></u>- Equity inflows are not common in August. Over the last 30 years,<b>August typically sees the largest outflows of the year</b>. -15bps of AUM typically leaves stock market funds in August, on ~22 Trillion, we model -$33B worth of equities for sale.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3308ac184f4fde82ba6c27fbcfbdd86f\" tg-width=\"579\" tg-height=\"340\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/005f51048f49a72597db950884245e8c\" tg-width=\"563\" tg-height=\"351\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p><b><u>4. Outflows cont.</u></b>To be clear, -$33B is not a significant $ figure when adjusted for market cap, however more important is that it’s not an inflow. The index level has remained at ATHs given inflows bid up the largest and biggest market cap index weights. On Monday we saw a large MOC imbalance for sale, this was unusual.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d98939cb6e06e80bc643fdca6801fb0a\" tg-width=\"268\" tg-height=\"474\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p><u><b>5. Passive flows drive largest marketcaps</b></u>- Passive ETFs logged the best full year of inflows on record, in just the first half of the year. (+500b). I watch the tape every day register large MOC imbalances to buy at 3:50pm EST,<b>but what if this dynamic fades.</b>Remember $1 inflow into SPY flows $.23 cents into top 5 companies and $1 inflow into QQQ flows $.41 cents into top 5. If inflows flip to outflows you will no longer see broad index dynamic.<b>Then investors need to decide which sector becomes the funding source for outflows.</b></p>\n<p>Just how important has this been for the S&amp;P 500? Important!</p>\n<ul>\n <li>Global Equity: 1-year: +$600B passive (IN) vs. $0.0B active (OUT) = &gt;$600B.</li>\n <li>Global Equity: 5-year: +$2.30T passive (IN) vs. -$1.90T active (OUT) = &gt;$4.2T</li>\n <li>Global Equity: 10-year: +$4T passive (IN) vs. -$3.0T active (OUT) = &gt;$7.0T</li>\n <li>Current Global Equity Active AUM of $10.099T exceeds &gt; Current Global Equity Passive AUM $7.225 T.</li>\n</ul>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/72aadadcd243a659f1e3cc9fc8f75c1b\" tg-width=\"666\" tg-height=\"375\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5419e040f7d023061743d473ffef59d1\" tg-width=\"666\" tg-height=\"375\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4fff3382eec0b783b12411fb653c6718\" tg-width=\"663\" tg-height=\"377\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p><i>Side note: ETFs represented 36% of the notional executed volumes, last levels since in March/April 2020. (YTD average) = 24%. Did you see the massive volumes in SQQQ Monday (3x short QQQ)?</i></p>\n<p><u><b>6. Single Stock Calls</b></u>- This is set up is very similar to July and August 2020 blow-off top as a result of call option trading. Reminder, S&amp;P sold off -392bps in September 2020 after call option volumes started to fade.</p>\n<ul>\n <li>Option notional has averaged an all-time record of +$550B per day in July. The top 3 traded stocks (AAPL, AMZN, and TSLA) make up $300B of daily volumes. Breadth in both options and stocks is low.</li>\n <li>\"Of 4000 Tradeable Single Stock options, the top 3 names make up 56% of the daily avg notional traded. Adding in the next 7, that ratio jumps to 72%.\"</li>\n <li>\"Said another way the top 10 underliers trade 3x more notional on an average day than the bottom 3990”</li>\n <li>This is an important dynamic to monitor.</li>\n</ul>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/be539bca2d8b556e65d32bbe28f2abb4\" tg-width=\"676\" tg-height=\"441\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p><u><b>7. Call Options cont.</b></u>- Retail has pivoted from trading weekly call options on GME and AMC - only $6B combined notional per day to the stay-at-home playbook. The names with the highest daily option trading are also the largest index weights. In addition to ETF flows, the retail call option buying frenzy also takes the street short weekly gamma on single names. 75% of single stock options traded today have an expiry of two weeks or less.<b>Said another way, given GS YOLO risk sentiment basket has rolled over, does AAPL need to catch down next (or at least not see YOLO flows).</b></p>\n<p>$181bln/day AMZN</p>\n<p>$ 82bln/day TSLA</p>\n<p>$ 36bln/day AAPL</p>\n<p>--------------</p>\n<p><b>TOTAL TSLA/AMZN/AAPL: $299bln/day&nbsp; ------- What happens if call volume in mega cap tech declines?</b></p>\n<ul>\n <li>$ 26bln/day NVDA</li>\n <li>$ 14bln/day GOOGL</li>\n <li>$ 11bln/day FB</li>\n <li>$ 10bln/day MSFT</li>\n <li>$&nbsp; 8bln/day SHOP</li>\n <li>$&nbsp; 8bln/day GOOG</li>\n <li>$&nbsp; 8bln/day NFLX</li>\n <li>$&nbsp; 7bln/day BABA</li>\n</ul>\n<p>--------------</p>\n<p><b>TOTAL GOOG/GOOGL/MSFT/FB/NFLX/NVDA/SHOP/BABA: $90bln/day</b></p>\n<ul>\n <li>$&nbsp; 4bln/day AMC</li>\n <li>$&nbsp; 2bln/day GME</li>\n</ul>\n<p>--------------</p>\n<p><b>TOTAL AMC/GME: $6bln/day&nbsp; ------- No Mo’ Yolo? See chart below.</b></p>\n<p>All other underlyings: $141bln/day</p>\n<p><u><i><b>Total single stock option market:</b></i></u></p>\n<ul>\n <li>$299bln/day TSLA/AMZN/AAPL</li>\n <li>$ 90bln/day GOOG/GOOGL/MSFT/FB/NFLX/NVDA/SHOP/BABA</li>\n <li>$&nbsp; 6bln/day AMC/GME</li>\n <li>$141bln/day All other underlyings</li>\n</ul>\n<p>--------------------</p>\n<p><b>$537bln/day Total</b></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1f5678ad5b66dd918c2cbb51263c9df0\" tg-width=\"650\" tg-height=\"450\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p><b><u>8. Option Gamma Unwinds</u></b>- Option Expiry just rolled off -85% of the market long gamma. The market now has the ability to move more freely and trade less long gamma. Everyday last week the market would rally into the bell as dealers re-hedge their gamma (buying the dips). I get worried about summer end-of-day liquidity without gamma hedging and passive demand. I think there will be also a “institutional” demand to buy hedges into Jackson Hole fulling removing the long gamma taking the street short to hedge downside. We have seen more puts and put spreads on the desk this week than any week of 2021.</p>\n<ul>\n <li>Wednesday (7/14) SPX gamma = +$4,625B</li>\n <li>Thursday (7/15) SPX gamma = +$3,620B</li>\n <li>Friday (7/16) SPX gamma = +$3,136B</li>\n <li>Monday (7/19) SPX gamma = +$2,698B</li>\n <li>Tuesday (7/20) SPX Gamma = +$713B.</li>\n</ul>\n<p><b>the Long S&amp;P 500 gamma has been reduced by -85% in the past 5 days taking dealers less long gamma.</b>This dynamic changes market behavior and we are seeing little demand to systematically overwrite from here even despite the move higher in vols. This is new.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b78215d53696f99f4c746f296ae2d225\" tg-width=\"797\" tg-height=\"598\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p><u><b>9. Systematic</b></u>- Non-economic is already near the max exposure and have little scope to add further from here. No threshold levels have triggered so far, but it is important to note the lack of ability to add from here, which asymmetrically skews the downside.</p>\n<ul>\n <li><b>CTA</b>- 90% percentile on 1-year rank, 84% percentile on 3-yr rank.</li>\n <li><b>GS models</b>-$9B of equities for sale over the next week. CTA’s are sellers in an up tape, down tape, down big tape. That’s not common. Check out big asymmetry to the downside over the next 1 month.</li>\n <li><b>GS short term CTA ES1 Flip Level</b>= $4,257.90. We tripped this circuit breaker yesterday, but are higher this am. I expect GS sell expectations to increase.</li>\n</ul>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3efe5f0b54f671b5c1b366ff5514cf5c\" tg-width=\"751\" tg-height=\"323\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/232a48ec7525cb179f6cd8bc285b7e55\" tg-width=\"499\" tg-height=\"300\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p><b>b) Vol Control - 86% percentile on 1-year rank, 75% percentile on 3-yr rank. FYI. SPX Put/Call Ratio hit a fresh 1 year high yesterday.</b></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a5553785fd8a0a66e717f5579ba6ee91\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"300\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p><b>c) Risk Parity - 100% percentile on 1-year rank, 53% percentile on 3-yr rank.</b></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9be4d94aa1cd38dad335c1424d3be626\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"300\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p><b>d) Total Systematic - 92% percentile on 1-year rank, 80% percentile on 3-yr rank. This is important. This non-emotional demand is at the max and will be sellers lower.</b></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4068fa4e9a8c6c06f77627c9ee6e07b8\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"300\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p><u><b>10. Liquidity</b></u>- The unofficial Rubner out of office outlook (OOO) reply meter. My note last week has week had the largest out of office kickbacks to the tune of “see you in a few weeks” or “gone fishing”. The upcoming calendar into Jackson Hole is important.</p>\n<ol>\n <li>next few weeks, extended vacation schedule first time in 12 months, etc, moved forward because Jackson hole.</li>\n <li>Jackson Hole, August 26 (Thursday) - August 28 (Saturday) – Friday is the likely the key calendar, but potentially Saturday will be important. This moves hedges to the following week.</li>\n <li>Labor Day, September 6 (Monday exchange holiday) - late this year</li>\n <li>approximate First day of Children’s school, September 7 (Tuesday)</li>\n <li>Liquidity = August Summer – ZZZZ. Top book liquidity declined SUBSTANTIALLY into the sell off yesterday.</li>\n</ol>\n<p>*** despite being ranked 10 in the checklist. This is really chart #1. Liquidity dried up substantially yesterday on the screens. This chart peaked at $36M last Monday to $10.810M yesterday. This is a drop of $25M $ or ~70% in on screws liquidity in 1 week.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/60db9087f28d7496be38eafbc0fa755e\" tg-width=\"650\" tg-height=\"450\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p><u><b>11. Buybacks</b></u>: Buybacks are here, but so is equity issuance, which neutralizes the buyback impulse. As corporates meet corporates. From Sales and trading colleague, John Flood in his most recent trading note.</p>\n<p><i>“It has been a paper party and this paper is getting harder to place. Last week we priced 11 registered deals in the U.S. ($3b notional) and this week already working on another 18 ($10b). This is especially noteworthy while in the depths of July.“</i></p>\n<ul>\n <li>Last week there was $6.2 billion in equity issuance, compared with the July weekly average of $3.4 billion since 2000.</li>\n <li>Last week there were 27 equity deals brought to market, compared with the July average of 15 deals per week since 2000.</li>\n</ul>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b680be938f506ba528c382fdb7d805ba\" tg-width=\"897\" tg-height=\"606\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p><i><b>Bottom Line:</b></i><i>Keep Tactical Flow of Funds Checklist on your radar for August. The technical market structure dynamics changes substantially during August</i><i><b>. I think there will be a dip (-5%) and it is meant to be bought heading late into Jackson Hole.</b></i><i>The consensus is calling for a larger equity market correction, I do not see it given the amount of capital in the system. I change my tone if we trigger key levels to the downside as sellers are lower. If August outflows actually happen, I think tech underperforms cyclical value reopen given high concentration and largest passive impact.</i><i><b>Once we see the first outflow in August, this will be the macro trigger for a tactical short</b></i><i>. Stay tuned and keep an eye on liquidity.</i></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Entering The Worst Seasonal Period Of The Year, And 10 Other Reasons Why Goldman Braces For An August Correction</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nEntering The Worst Seasonal Period Of The Year, And 10 Other Reasons Why Goldman Braces For An August Correction\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-07-22 15:19 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/entering-worst-seasonal-period-year-and-10-other-reasons-why-goldman-braces-august><strong>zerohedge</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>In a stark reversal to its bullish sentiment at the start of the month, when the bank first noted - correctly - that the S&P was entering itsbest 2-week seasonal period of the yearwhich it did between...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/entering-worst-seasonal-period-year-and-10-other-reasons-why-goldman-braces-august\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"SPY":"标普500ETF",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/entering-worst-seasonal-period-year-and-10-other-reasons-why-goldman-braces-august","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1192458370","content_text":"In a stark reversal to its bullish sentiment at the start of the month, when the bank first noted - correctly - that the S&P was entering itsbest 2-week seasonal period of the yearwhich it did between July 1 and 15 when it posted a series of new all time highs (before dumping on the 16th and the 19th)...\n\n... followed by a lengthy rationalization why \"the shorts will have to cover\", Goldman has been turning surprisingly bearish in recent days, and two days after Goldman flow trader John Flood urged Goldman clients \"not to buy this dip\" on Monday (spoiler alert: they did) his trading desk colleague Scott Rubner has published a report previewing why he anticipates a correction in the coming days and continuing through the Jackson Hole symposium at the end of August.\nHis note, from which we excerpt below, contains the key arguments behind Goldman's August \"correction\" thesis, including tactical flow of funds, an acceleration of sellers, and feedback from the GS equity trading floor.\nSo without further ado, here is Rubner, who lays out his \"11 point checklist for an August correction\", starting by noting that \"the #1 question that has hit my inbox/IB in the past 48 hours. What happens to the equity market when there is an outflow and buy demand slows?\" As we read below, the most appropriate answer is \"nothing good.\"\n\n11 point Checklist - Consensus client feedback for a quick equity risk reduction into potentially lower buy demand into Jackson hole. The consensus feedback seems to be calling for a -5% correction, which really gets to -4%. This is a recap of the talking points about to hit your inbox this week. I think this morning’s rally gets faded as buy tickets are completed early in the day.\n“Selling rallies” is the new dynamic vs. buying dips.\n\n1. Weak Seasonals- Since 1928, we just exited the best two-week period of the year. Friday’s option expiry ended the best seasonal period of the year.August seasonals are not market friendly and trend lower all of August, for the 4th worst two-week seasonal period of the year. Today you are here and Jackson hole is the low point of this chart. Since 1950, there have been 19 times in 72 years that the S&P is up at least >10% through the first half of the year. The median return for August specifically, following a strong 1H is typically down -51bps, before rallying higher.\n\n2. Largest outflows of the year- Investors allocate capital into the market in July and we have seen these record inflows. This is the biggest dynamic in the equity market this year period. Inflows continue at a record pace, annualizing at $1.2 trillion inflows for 2021. 401k inflows predominately flowed in S&P and NDX rather than ROW.\n\n3. Reversal of flows predicted for August- Equity inflows are not common in August. Over the last 30 years,August typically sees the largest outflows of the year. -15bps of AUM typically leaves stock market funds in August, on ~22 Trillion, we model -$33B worth of equities for sale.\n\n4. Outflows cont.To be clear, -$33B is not a significant $ figure when adjusted for market cap, however more important is that it’s not an inflow. The index level has remained at ATHs given inflows bid up the largest and biggest market cap index weights. On Monday we saw a large MOC imbalance for sale, this was unusual.\n\n5. Passive flows drive largest marketcaps- Passive ETFs logged the best full year of inflows on record, in just the first half of the year. (+500b). I watch the tape every day register large MOC imbalances to buy at 3:50pm EST,but what if this dynamic fades.Remember $1 inflow into SPY flows $.23 cents into top 5 companies and $1 inflow into QQQ flows $.41 cents into top 5. If inflows flip to outflows you will no longer see broad index dynamic.Then investors need to decide which sector becomes the funding source for outflows.\nJust how important has this been for the S&P 500? Important!\n\nGlobal Equity: 1-year: +$600B passive (IN) vs. $0.0B active (OUT) = >$600B.\nGlobal Equity: 5-year: +$2.30T passive (IN) vs. -$1.90T active (OUT) = >$4.2T\nGlobal Equity: 10-year: +$4T passive (IN) vs. -$3.0T active (OUT) = >$7.0T\nCurrent Global Equity Active AUM of $10.099T exceeds > Current Global Equity Passive AUM $7.225 T.\n\n\nSide note: ETFs represented 36% of the notional executed volumes, last levels since in March/April 2020. (YTD average) = 24%. Did you see the massive volumes in SQQQ Monday (3x short QQQ)?\n6. Single Stock Calls- This is set up is very similar to July and August 2020 blow-off top as a result of call option trading. Reminder, S&P sold off -392bps in September 2020 after call option volumes started to fade.\n\nOption notional has averaged an all-time record of +$550B per day in July. The top 3 traded stocks (AAPL, AMZN, and TSLA) make up $300B of daily volumes. Breadth in both options and stocks is low.\n\"Of 4000 Tradeable Single Stock options, the top 3 names make up 56% of the daily avg notional traded. Adding in the next 7, that ratio jumps to 72%.\"\n\"Said another way the top 10 underliers trade 3x more notional on an average day than the bottom 3990”\nThis is an important dynamic to monitor.\n\n\n7. Call Options cont.- Retail has pivoted from trading weekly call options on GME and AMC - only $6B combined notional per day to the stay-at-home playbook. The names with the highest daily option trading are also the largest index weights. In addition to ETF flows, the retail call option buying frenzy also takes the street short weekly gamma on single names. 75% of single stock options traded today have an expiry of two weeks or less.Said another way, given GS YOLO risk sentiment basket has rolled over, does AAPL need to catch down next (or at least not see YOLO flows).\n$181bln/day AMZN\n$ 82bln/day TSLA\n$ 36bln/day AAPL\n--------------\nTOTAL TSLA/AMZN/AAPL: $299bln/day  ------- What happens if call volume in mega cap tech declines?\n\n$ 26bln/day NVDA\n$ 14bln/day GOOGL\n$ 11bln/day FB\n$ 10bln/day MSFT\n$  8bln/day SHOP\n$  8bln/day GOOG\n$  8bln/day NFLX\n$  7bln/day BABA\n\n--------------\nTOTAL GOOG/GOOGL/MSFT/FB/NFLX/NVDA/SHOP/BABA: $90bln/day\n\n$  4bln/day AMC\n$  2bln/day GME\n\n--------------\nTOTAL AMC/GME: $6bln/day  ------- No Mo’ Yolo? See chart below.\nAll other underlyings: $141bln/day\nTotal single stock option market:\n\n$299bln/day TSLA/AMZN/AAPL\n$ 90bln/day GOOG/GOOGL/MSFT/FB/NFLX/NVDA/SHOP/BABA\n$  6bln/day AMC/GME\n$141bln/day All other underlyings\n\n--------------------\n$537bln/day Total\n\n8. Option Gamma Unwinds- Option Expiry just rolled off -85% of the market long gamma. The market now has the ability to move more freely and trade less long gamma. Everyday last week the market would rally into the bell as dealers re-hedge their gamma (buying the dips). I get worried about summer end-of-day liquidity without gamma hedging and passive demand. I think there will be also a “institutional” demand to buy hedges into Jackson Hole fulling removing the long gamma taking the street short to hedge downside. We have seen more puts and put spreads on the desk this week than any week of 2021.\n\nWednesday (7/14) SPX gamma = +$4,625B\nThursday (7/15) SPX gamma = +$3,620B\nFriday (7/16) SPX gamma = +$3,136B\nMonday (7/19) SPX gamma = +$2,698B\nTuesday (7/20) SPX Gamma = +$713B.\n\nthe Long S&P 500 gamma has been reduced by -85% in the past 5 days taking dealers less long gamma.This dynamic changes market behavior and we are seeing little demand to systematically overwrite from here even despite the move higher in vols. This is new.\n\n9. Systematic- Non-economic is already near the max exposure and have little scope to add further from here. No threshold levels have triggered so far, but it is important to note the lack of ability to add from here, which asymmetrically skews the downside.\n\nCTA- 90% percentile on 1-year rank, 84% percentile on 3-yr rank.\nGS models-$9B of equities for sale over the next week. CTA’s are sellers in an up tape, down tape, down big tape. That’s not common. Check out big asymmetry to the downside over the next 1 month.\nGS short term CTA ES1 Flip Level= $4,257.90. We tripped this circuit breaker yesterday, but are higher this am. I expect GS sell expectations to increase.\n\n\nb) Vol Control - 86% percentile on 1-year rank, 75% percentile on 3-yr rank. FYI. SPX Put/Call Ratio hit a fresh 1 year high yesterday.\n\nc) Risk Parity - 100% percentile on 1-year rank, 53% percentile on 3-yr rank.\n\nd) Total Systematic - 92% percentile on 1-year rank, 80% percentile on 3-yr rank. This is important. This non-emotional demand is at the max and will be sellers lower.\n\n10. Liquidity- The unofficial Rubner out of office outlook (OOO) reply meter. My note last week has week had the largest out of office kickbacks to the tune of “see you in a few weeks” or “gone fishing”. The upcoming calendar into Jackson Hole is important.\n\nnext few weeks, extended vacation schedule first time in 12 months, etc, moved forward because Jackson hole.\nJackson Hole, August 26 (Thursday) - August 28 (Saturday) – Friday is the likely the key calendar, but potentially Saturday will be important. This moves hedges to the following week.\nLabor Day, September 6 (Monday exchange holiday) - late this year\napproximate First day of Children’s school, September 7 (Tuesday)\nLiquidity = August Summer – ZZZZ. Top book liquidity declined SUBSTANTIALLY into the sell off yesterday.\n\n*** despite being ranked 10 in the checklist. This is really chart #1. Liquidity dried up substantially yesterday on the screens. This chart peaked at $36M last Monday to $10.810M yesterday. This is a drop of $25M $ or ~70% in on screws liquidity in 1 week.\n\n11. Buybacks: Buybacks are here, but so is equity issuance, which neutralizes the buyback impulse. As corporates meet corporates. From Sales and trading colleague, John Flood in his most recent trading note.\n“It has been a paper party and this paper is getting harder to place. Last week we priced 11 registered deals in the U.S. ($3b notional) and this week already working on another 18 ($10b). This is especially noteworthy while in the depths of July.“\n\nLast week there was $6.2 billion in equity issuance, compared with the July weekly average of $3.4 billion since 2000.\nLast week there were 27 equity deals brought to market, compared with the July average of 15 deals per week since 2000.\n\n\nBottom Line:Keep Tactical Flow of Funds Checklist on your radar for August. The technical market structure dynamics changes substantially during August. I think there will be a dip (-5%) and it is meant to be bought heading late into Jackson Hole.The consensus is calling for a larger equity market correction, I do not see it given the amount of capital in the system. I change my tone if we trigger key levels to the downside as sellers are lower. If August outflows actually happen, I think tech underperforms cyclical value reopen given high concentration and largest passive impact.Once we see the first outflow in August, this will be the macro trigger for a tactical short. Stay tuned and keep an eye on liquidity.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":265,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":150263508,"gmtCreate":1624911556704,"gmtModify":1633947203108,"author":{"id":"3575190540714273","authorId":"3575190540714273","name":"hminjoon","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/84d00aa235bffbcf955ca0b965aeb40d","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3575190540714273","authorIdStr":"3575190540714273"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Sick..&nbsp;","listText":"Sick..&nbsp;","text":"Sick..","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/150263508","repostId":"1182036516","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1182036516","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Providing stock market headlines, business news, financials and earnings ","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Tiger Newspress","id":"1079075236","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1624892087,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1182036516?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-28 22:54","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Nvidia shares rose more than 5% to a new high","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1182036516","media":"Tiger Newspress","summary":"Nvidia shares rose more than 5% to a new high on Report Three Key Chip Makers Endorse Bid for Arm.\n\n","content":"<p>Nvidia shares rose more than 5% to a new high on Report Three Key Chip Makers Endorse Bid for Arm.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/05201fd147f1f824ea42bb1d0bcac789\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\"></p>\n<p>Three major chip makers have reportedly stepped up to say they support&nbsp;Nvidia‘s&nbsp;proposed acquisition of the U.K.-based chip-design house Arm.</p>\n<p>Last September, Nvidia (ticker: NVDA) announced a deal to acquire Arm from&nbsp;SoftBank Group(SFTBY) for $40 billion in cash and stock in a transaction that would make SoftBank the largest investor in Nvidia. The deal has attracted considerable scrutiny from both regulators and other chip companies, given Arm’s position as a leading provider of microprocessor designs to the chip industry. Almost all smartphones use processors based on Arm designs.</p>\n<p>But the U.K.’s&nbsp;<i>Sunday Times</i>&nbsp;over the weekend&nbsp;reported&nbsp;that three important Arm customers—Broadcom(AVGO), Marvell (MRVL), and Taiwan-based&nbsp;MediaTek(2454.TW)—have endorsed the transaction. None of the companies involved could immediately be reached for comment.</p>\n<p>Citi analyst Atif Malk wrote in a research note Sunday that the report is a big step forward for the proposed deal. He thinks the U.K. likely will approve the combination, given Nvidia’s public commitment to investing more in Arm’s U.K. operations. But he still sees considerable hurdles, in particular in China.</p>\n<p>“With the U.S. continuing to be aggressive against China winning in a tech race, we see China less likely to support a deal that would see them potentially losing access to Arm,” he wrote in a research note. “If Nvidia finds a way to keep the Arm China subsidiary as a separate entity without access to any [graphics processor or artificial intelligence] IP then there is a path to get both U.S. and China regulatory approval.”</p>\n<p>Malik says he says the path to approval remains narrow. He now sees a 30% chance of approval, up from a previous estimate of 10%.</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Nvidia shares rose more than 5% to a new high</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nNvidia shares rose more than 5% to a new high\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1079075236\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Tiger Newspress </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2021-06-28 22:54</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Nvidia shares rose more than 5% to a new high on Report Three Key Chip Makers Endorse Bid for Arm.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/05201fd147f1f824ea42bb1d0bcac789\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\"></p>\n<p>Three major chip makers have reportedly stepped up to say they support&nbsp;Nvidia‘s&nbsp;proposed acquisition of the U.K.-based chip-design house Arm.</p>\n<p>Last September, Nvidia (ticker: NVDA) announced a deal to acquire Arm from&nbsp;SoftBank Group(SFTBY) for $40 billion in cash and stock in a transaction that would make SoftBank the largest investor in Nvidia. The deal has attracted considerable scrutiny from both regulators and other chip companies, given Arm’s position as a leading provider of microprocessor designs to the chip industry. Almost all smartphones use processors based on Arm designs.</p>\n<p>But the U.K.’s&nbsp;<i>Sunday Times</i>&nbsp;over the weekend&nbsp;reported&nbsp;that three important Arm customers—Broadcom(AVGO), Marvell (MRVL), and Taiwan-based&nbsp;MediaTek(2454.TW)—have endorsed the transaction. None of the companies involved could immediately be reached for comment.</p>\n<p>Citi analyst Atif Malk wrote in a research note Sunday that the report is a big step forward for the proposed deal. He thinks the U.K. likely will approve the combination, given Nvidia’s public commitment to investing more in Arm’s U.K. operations. But he still sees considerable hurdles, in particular in China.</p>\n<p>“With the U.S. continuing to be aggressive against China winning in a tech race, we see China less likely to support a deal that would see them potentially losing access to Arm,” he wrote in a research note. “If Nvidia finds a way to keep the Arm China subsidiary as a separate entity without access to any [graphics processor or artificial intelligence] IP then there is a path to get both U.S. and China regulatory approval.”</p>\n<p>Malik says he says the path to approval remains narrow. He now sees a 30% chance of approval, up from a previous estimate of 10%.</p>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"NVDA":"英伟达"},"is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1182036516","content_text":"Nvidia shares rose more than 5% to a new high on Report Three Key Chip Makers Endorse Bid for Arm.\n\nThree major chip makers have reportedly stepped up to say they support Nvidia‘s proposed acquisition of the U.K.-based chip-design house Arm.\nLast September, Nvidia (ticker: NVDA) announced a deal to acquire Arm from SoftBank Group(SFTBY) for $40 billion in cash and stock in a transaction that would make SoftBank the largest investor in Nvidia. The deal has attracted considerable scrutiny from both regulators and other chip companies, given Arm’s position as a leading provider of microprocessor designs to the chip industry. Almost all smartphones use processors based on Arm designs.\nBut the U.K.’s Sunday Times over the weekend reported that three important Arm customers—Broadcom(AVGO), Marvell (MRVL), and Taiwan-based MediaTek(2454.TW)—have endorsed the transaction. None of the companies involved could immediately be reached for comment.\nCiti analyst Atif Malk wrote in a research note Sunday that the report is a big step forward for the proposed deal. He thinks the U.K. likely will approve the combination, given Nvidia’s public commitment to investing more in Arm’s U.K. operations. But he still sees considerable hurdles, in particular in China.\n“With the U.S. continuing to be aggressive against China winning in a tech race, we see China less likely to support a deal that would see them potentially losing access to Arm,” he wrote in a research note. “If Nvidia finds a way to keep the Arm China subsidiary as a separate entity without access to any [graphics processor or artificial intelligence] IP then there is a path to get both U.S. and China regulatory approval.”\nMalik says he says the path to approval remains narrow. He now sees a 30% chance of approval, up from a previous estimate of 10%.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":371,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":128229024,"gmtCreate":1624519489368,"gmtModify":1634004938106,"author":{"id":"3575190540714273","authorId":"3575190540714273","name":"hminjoon","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/84d00aa235bffbcf955ca0b965aeb40d","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3575190540714273","authorIdStr":"3575190540714273"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Moooon","listText":"Moooon","text":"Moooon","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/128229024","repostId":"1138132786","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":344,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":189173871,"gmtCreate":1623249574793,"gmtModify":1634035346018,"author":{"id":"3575190540714273","authorId":"3575190540714273","name":"hminjoon","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/84d00aa235bffbcf955ca0b965aeb40d","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3575190540714273","authorIdStr":"3575190540714273"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Good stuff","listText":"Good stuff","text":"Good stuff","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/83e73b3256210ae306656de2ce953d6e","width":"1080","height":"3056"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/189173871","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":442,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":189385612,"gmtCreate":1623245654636,"gmtModify":1634035431844,"author":{"id":"3575190540714273","authorId":"3575190540714273","name":"hminjoon","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/84d00aa235bffbcf955ca0b965aeb40d","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3575190540714273","authorIdStr":"3575190540714273"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"🚀🚀","listText":"🚀🚀","text":"🚀🚀","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/189385612","repostId":"2142600282","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2142600282","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1623231406,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2142600282?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-09 17:36","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Meme stock frenzy is distracting investors from 'huge opportunities,' Datatrek says","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2142600282","media":"Yahoo Finance","summary":"There is probably a lot of trash in the speculative boom currently taking hold of markets. But hidde","content":"<p>There is probably a lot of trash in the speculative boom currently taking hold of markets. But hidden amid the meme stocks, SPACs, and crypto coins could be some valuable businesses.</p>\n<p>“Somewhere in the hundreds of SPACs and scores of meme stocks are some decent companies and potentially even a few huge opportunities,” DataTrek’s Nicholas Colas wrote in a note this week. “For example: Hertz, which was supposed to be a retail investor graveyard, actually exited bankruptcy with its equity value intact. The same exact thing happened with U-Haul about 20 years ago, by the way.”</p>\n<p>While many of the assets used for speculation may have similar price spikes as viral interest or short interest affect people’s perceptions, most of these things are all pretty different, with different stories and long term possibilities.</p>\n<p>Take Hertz. Last year, the company was bankrupt and shares were on a roller coaster – investors could try to double or triple their money in a day. But if an investor held on and didn’t sell shares out of boredom or when the stock stopped being compelling (Yahoo Finance traffic data showed interest and trading volume fell off in July 2020 they would be in a pretty good situation, returns-wise.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/65a250ca4c5310d48d33b9614cd6f6a5\" tg-width=\"678\" tg-height=\"565\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>Hertz had fallen from a June 2020 peak of over $6 to well under a dollar during the months after interest waned and was delisted from the NYSE in 2020. But in May, it ended up being worth over $6 a share when the company emerged from bankruptcy via auction, rewarding shareholders who stayed.</p>\n<p>The only thesis there would have been “this name-brand rental car company would get its mojo back when people start renting cars again,” not a huge jump.</p>\n<h3><b>'Meme’ stocks and SPACs could have moonshot potential, even if tiny</b></h3>\n<p>On the SPAC boom, Colas mused that most will probably fail or at least “dramatically underperform,” but that “somewhere in this barrage of moonshots there will almost certainly be a few huge winners that leverage disruptive technology.”</p>\n<p>According to a Reuters investigation, 100 SPACs, most of which began trading last year, gained just 2% from their first-traded prices, dramatically underperforming the S&amp;P 500 index.</p>\n<p>But Colas has a reminder that there is an easy way to get exposure to any breakaway successes in the SPAC world — by simply getting involved in a broad equity portfolio like the S&amp;P 500.</p>\n<p>“If you own a diversified US equity portfolio like the S&amp;P 500, then SPACs and meme stocks are basically free call options,” Colas wrote. “Somewhere in that basket of oddball ideas could be the next Amazon or Apple, and you absolutely want to see those companies funded. At some point, the 1 percent of SPACs that actually work will end up in the S&amp;P 500, driving future returns. And the 99 percent that fail will have cost you nothing.”</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ebd83ac5026e8ce00574edaae7d0a630\" tg-width=\"677\" tg-height=\"568\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>While you might not get the jaw-dropping ground-floor gains, a transformative company would have plenty of gains still to give an index after it’s added. Just look at Apple, Amazon, or even Tesla. If the company is a good <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE\">one</a>, it will do well, and even if you don’t get those ground-floor gains, not having the losers is a huge advantage.</p>\n<p>This is key because you never know what’s going to happen. For a SPAC with a nebulous business, you can have the moon in your sights. The vaguer things are, the higher you can shoot. But for GameStop, AMC, and Hertz, we’re talking about a game store, a movie theater chain, and a car-rental company — hardly the next Apple. At least, you’d think. But not necessarily.</p>\n<p>“There is always some level of optionality in any business, no matter how prosaic,” Colas told Yahoo Finance. “And that optionality increases in value when there is a ton of cash on the balance sheet because managements have more time to explore the options embedded in the price.”</p>\n<p>In other words, when these meme stocks have a ton of cash, more than they’ve ever dreamed of, a lot more might be possible, even if it’s a long shot.</p>\n<p>“Now, the options might not be worth much,” Colas added, “but they aren't worth zero until the cash is gone.”</p>","source":"yahoofinance","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Meme stock frenzy is distracting investors from 'huge opportunities,' Datatrek says</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nMeme stock frenzy is distracting investors from 'huge opportunities,' Datatrek says\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-06-09 17:36 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://finance.yahoo.com/news/meme-stock-frenzy-is-distracting-investors-from-huge-opportunities-datatrek-says-173646965.html><strong>Yahoo Finance</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>There is probably a lot of trash in the speculative boom currently taking hold of markets. But hidden amid the meme stocks, SPACs, and crypto coins could be some valuable businesses.\n“Somewhere in the...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://finance.yahoo.com/news/meme-stock-frenzy-is-distracting-investors-from-huge-opportunities-datatrek-says-173646965.html\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"161125":"标普500","513500":"标普500ETF","AMC":"AMC院线","HRI":"Herc Holdings Inc.","SSO":"两倍做多标普500ETF","OEX":"标普100","GME":"游戏驿站",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","SDS":"两倍做空标普500ETF","OEF":"标普100指数ETF-iShares","SPXU":"三倍做空标普500ETF","UPRO":"三倍做多标普500ETF","IVV":"标普500指数ETF","SH":"标普500反向ETF"},"source_url":"https://finance.yahoo.com/news/meme-stock-frenzy-is-distracting-investors-from-huge-opportunities-datatrek-says-173646965.html","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/5f26f4a48f9cb3e29be4d71d3ba8c038","article_id":"2142600282","content_text":"There is probably a lot of trash in the speculative boom currently taking hold of markets. But hidden amid the meme stocks, SPACs, and crypto coins could be some valuable businesses.\n“Somewhere in the hundreds of SPACs and scores of meme stocks are some decent companies and potentially even a few huge opportunities,” DataTrek’s Nicholas Colas wrote in a note this week. “For example: Hertz, which was supposed to be a retail investor graveyard, actually exited bankruptcy with its equity value intact. The same exact thing happened with U-Haul about 20 years ago, by the way.”\nWhile many of the assets used for speculation may have similar price spikes as viral interest or short interest affect people’s perceptions, most of these things are all pretty different, with different stories and long term possibilities.\nTake Hertz. Last year, the company was bankrupt and shares were on a roller coaster – investors could try to double or triple their money in a day. But if an investor held on and didn’t sell shares out of boredom or when the stock stopped being compelling (Yahoo Finance traffic data showed interest and trading volume fell off in July 2020 they would be in a pretty good situation, returns-wise.\n\nHertz had fallen from a June 2020 peak of over $6 to well under a dollar during the months after interest waned and was delisted from the NYSE in 2020. But in May, it ended up being worth over $6 a share when the company emerged from bankruptcy via auction, rewarding shareholders who stayed.\nThe only thesis there would have been “this name-brand rental car company would get its mojo back when people start renting cars again,” not a huge jump.\n'Meme’ stocks and SPACs could have moonshot potential, even if tiny\nOn the SPAC boom, Colas mused that most will probably fail or at least “dramatically underperform,” but that “somewhere in this barrage of moonshots there will almost certainly be a few huge winners that leverage disruptive technology.”\nAccording to a Reuters investigation, 100 SPACs, most of which began trading last year, gained just 2% from their first-traded prices, dramatically underperforming the S&P 500 index.\nBut Colas has a reminder that there is an easy way to get exposure to any breakaway successes in the SPAC world — by simply getting involved in a broad equity portfolio like the S&P 500.\n“If you own a diversified US equity portfolio like the S&P 500, then SPACs and meme stocks are basically free call options,” Colas wrote. “Somewhere in that basket of oddball ideas could be the next Amazon or Apple, and you absolutely want to see those companies funded. At some point, the 1 percent of SPACs that actually work will end up in the S&P 500, driving future returns. And the 99 percent that fail will have cost you nothing.”\n\nWhile you might not get the jaw-dropping ground-floor gains, a transformative company would have plenty of gains still to give an index after it’s added. Just look at Apple, Amazon, or even Tesla. If the company is a good one, it will do well, and even if you don’t get those ground-floor gains, not having the losers is a huge advantage.\nThis is key because you never know what’s going to happen. For a SPAC with a nebulous business, you can have the moon in your sights. The vaguer things are, the higher you can shoot. But for GameStop, AMC, and Hertz, we’re talking about a game store, a movie theater chain, and a car-rental company — hardly the next Apple. At least, you’d think. But not necessarily.\n“There is always some level of optionality in any business, no matter how prosaic,” Colas told Yahoo Finance. “And that optionality increases in value when there is a ton of cash on the balance sheet because managements have more time to explore the options embedded in the price.”\nIn other words, when these meme stocks have a ton of cash, more than they’ve ever dreamed of, a lot more might be possible, even if it’s a long shot.\n“Now, the options might not be worth much,” Colas added, “but they aren't worth zero until the cash is gone.”","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":339,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":189381716,"gmtCreate":1623245586435,"gmtModify":1634035432560,"author":{"id":"3575190540714273","authorId":"3575190540714273","name":"hminjoon","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/84d00aa235bffbcf955ca0b965aeb40d","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3575190540714273","authorIdStr":"3575190540714273"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"🚀","listText":"🚀","text":"🚀","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/189381716","repostId":"1150769391","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":588,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":189385612,"gmtCreate":1623245654636,"gmtModify":1634035431844,"author":{"id":"3575190540714273","authorId":"3575190540714273","name":"hminjoon","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/84d00aa235bffbcf955ca0b965aeb40d","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3575190540714273","authorIdStr":"3575190540714273"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"🚀🚀","listText":"🚀🚀","text":"🚀🚀","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/189385612","repostId":"2142600282","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2142600282","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1623231406,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2142600282?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-09 17:36","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Meme stock frenzy is distracting investors from 'huge opportunities,' Datatrek says","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2142600282","media":"Yahoo Finance","summary":"There is probably a lot of trash in the speculative boom currently taking hold of markets. But hidde","content":"<p>There is probably a lot of trash in the speculative boom currently taking hold of markets. But hidden amid the meme stocks, SPACs, and crypto coins could be some valuable businesses.</p>\n<p>“Somewhere in the hundreds of SPACs and scores of meme stocks are some decent companies and potentially even a few huge opportunities,” DataTrek’s Nicholas Colas wrote in a note this week. “For example: Hertz, which was supposed to be a retail investor graveyard, actually exited bankruptcy with its equity value intact. The same exact thing happened with U-Haul about 20 years ago, by the way.”</p>\n<p>While many of the assets used for speculation may have similar price spikes as viral interest or short interest affect people’s perceptions, most of these things are all pretty different, with different stories and long term possibilities.</p>\n<p>Take Hertz. Last year, the company was bankrupt and shares were on a roller coaster – investors could try to double or triple their money in a day. But if an investor held on and didn’t sell shares out of boredom or when the stock stopped being compelling (Yahoo Finance traffic data showed interest and trading volume fell off in July 2020 they would be in a pretty good situation, returns-wise.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/65a250ca4c5310d48d33b9614cd6f6a5\" tg-width=\"678\" tg-height=\"565\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>Hertz had fallen from a June 2020 peak of over $6 to well under a dollar during the months after interest waned and was delisted from the NYSE in 2020. But in May, it ended up being worth over $6 a share when the company emerged from bankruptcy via auction, rewarding shareholders who stayed.</p>\n<p>The only thesis there would have been “this name-brand rental car company would get its mojo back when people start renting cars again,” not a huge jump.</p>\n<h3><b>'Meme’ stocks and SPACs could have moonshot potential, even if tiny</b></h3>\n<p>On the SPAC boom, Colas mused that most will probably fail or at least “dramatically underperform,” but that “somewhere in this barrage of moonshots there will almost certainly be a few huge winners that leverage disruptive technology.”</p>\n<p>According to a Reuters investigation, 100 SPACs, most of which began trading last year, gained just 2% from their first-traded prices, dramatically underperforming the S&amp;P 500 index.</p>\n<p>But Colas has a reminder that there is an easy way to get exposure to any breakaway successes in the SPAC world — by simply getting involved in a broad equity portfolio like the S&amp;P 500.</p>\n<p>“If you own a diversified US equity portfolio like the S&amp;P 500, then SPACs and meme stocks are basically free call options,” Colas wrote. “Somewhere in that basket of oddball ideas could be the next Amazon or Apple, and you absolutely want to see those companies funded. At some point, the 1 percent of SPACs that actually work will end up in the S&amp;P 500, driving future returns. And the 99 percent that fail will have cost you nothing.”</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ebd83ac5026e8ce00574edaae7d0a630\" tg-width=\"677\" tg-height=\"568\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>While you might not get the jaw-dropping ground-floor gains, a transformative company would have plenty of gains still to give an index after it’s added. Just look at Apple, Amazon, or even Tesla. If the company is a good <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE\">one</a>, it will do well, and even if you don’t get those ground-floor gains, not having the losers is a huge advantage.</p>\n<p>This is key because you never know what’s going to happen. For a SPAC with a nebulous business, you can have the moon in your sights. The vaguer things are, the higher you can shoot. But for GameStop, AMC, and Hertz, we’re talking about a game store, a movie theater chain, and a car-rental company — hardly the next Apple. At least, you’d think. But not necessarily.</p>\n<p>“There is always some level of optionality in any business, no matter how prosaic,” Colas told Yahoo Finance. “And that optionality increases in value when there is a ton of cash on the balance sheet because managements have more time to explore the options embedded in the price.”</p>\n<p>In other words, when these meme stocks have a ton of cash, more than they’ve ever dreamed of, a lot more might be possible, even if it’s a long shot.</p>\n<p>“Now, the options might not be worth much,” Colas added, “but they aren't worth zero until the cash is gone.”</p>","source":"yahoofinance","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Meme stock frenzy is distracting investors from 'huge opportunities,' Datatrek says</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nMeme stock frenzy is distracting investors from 'huge opportunities,' Datatrek says\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-06-09 17:36 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://finance.yahoo.com/news/meme-stock-frenzy-is-distracting-investors-from-huge-opportunities-datatrek-says-173646965.html><strong>Yahoo Finance</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>There is probably a lot of trash in the speculative boom currently taking hold of markets. But hidden amid the meme stocks, SPACs, and crypto coins could be some valuable businesses.\n“Somewhere in the...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://finance.yahoo.com/news/meme-stock-frenzy-is-distracting-investors-from-huge-opportunities-datatrek-says-173646965.html\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"161125":"标普500","513500":"标普500ETF","AMC":"AMC院线","HRI":"Herc Holdings Inc.","SSO":"两倍做多标普500ETF","OEX":"标普100","GME":"游戏驿站",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","SDS":"两倍做空标普500ETF","OEF":"标普100指数ETF-iShares","SPXU":"三倍做空标普500ETF","UPRO":"三倍做多标普500ETF","IVV":"标普500指数ETF","SH":"标普500反向ETF"},"source_url":"https://finance.yahoo.com/news/meme-stock-frenzy-is-distracting-investors-from-huge-opportunities-datatrek-says-173646965.html","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/5f26f4a48f9cb3e29be4d71d3ba8c038","article_id":"2142600282","content_text":"There is probably a lot of trash in the speculative boom currently taking hold of markets. But hidden amid the meme stocks, SPACs, and crypto coins could be some valuable businesses.\n“Somewhere in the hundreds of SPACs and scores of meme stocks are some decent companies and potentially even a few huge opportunities,” DataTrek’s Nicholas Colas wrote in a note this week. “For example: Hertz, which was supposed to be a retail investor graveyard, actually exited bankruptcy with its equity value intact. The same exact thing happened with U-Haul about 20 years ago, by the way.”\nWhile many of the assets used for speculation may have similar price spikes as viral interest or short interest affect people’s perceptions, most of these things are all pretty different, with different stories and long term possibilities.\nTake Hertz. Last year, the company was bankrupt and shares were on a roller coaster – investors could try to double or triple their money in a day. But if an investor held on and didn’t sell shares out of boredom or when the stock stopped being compelling (Yahoo Finance traffic data showed interest and trading volume fell off in July 2020 they would be in a pretty good situation, returns-wise.\n\nHertz had fallen from a June 2020 peak of over $6 to well under a dollar during the months after interest waned and was delisted from the NYSE in 2020. But in May, it ended up being worth over $6 a share when the company emerged from bankruptcy via auction, rewarding shareholders who stayed.\nThe only thesis there would have been “this name-brand rental car company would get its mojo back when people start renting cars again,” not a huge jump.\n'Meme’ stocks and SPACs could have moonshot potential, even if tiny\nOn the SPAC boom, Colas mused that most will probably fail or at least “dramatically underperform,” but that “somewhere in this barrage of moonshots there will almost certainly be a few huge winners that leverage disruptive technology.”\nAccording to a Reuters investigation, 100 SPACs, most of which began trading last year, gained just 2% from their first-traded prices, dramatically underperforming the S&P 500 index.\nBut Colas has a reminder that there is an easy way to get exposure to any breakaway successes in the SPAC world — by simply getting involved in a broad equity portfolio like the S&P 500.\n“If you own a diversified US equity portfolio like the S&P 500, then SPACs and meme stocks are basically free call options,” Colas wrote. “Somewhere in that basket of oddball ideas could be the next Amazon or Apple, and you absolutely want to see those companies funded. At some point, the 1 percent of SPACs that actually work will end up in the S&P 500, driving future returns. And the 99 percent that fail will have cost you nothing.”\n\nWhile you might not get the jaw-dropping ground-floor gains, a transformative company would have plenty of gains still to give an index after it’s added. Just look at Apple, Amazon, or even Tesla. If the company is a good one, it will do well, and even if you don’t get those ground-floor gains, not having the losers is a huge advantage.\nThis is key because you never know what’s going to happen. For a SPAC with a nebulous business, you can have the moon in your sights. The vaguer things are, the higher you can shoot. But for GameStop, AMC, and Hertz, we’re talking about a game store, a movie theater chain, and a car-rental company — hardly the next Apple. At least, you’d think. But not necessarily.\n“There is always some level of optionality in any business, no matter how prosaic,” Colas told Yahoo Finance. “And that optionality increases in value when there is a ton of cash on the balance sheet because managements have more time to explore the options embedded in the price.”\nIn other words, when these meme stocks have a ton of cash, more than they’ve ever dreamed of, a lot more might be possible, even if it’s a long shot.\n“Now, the options might not be worth much,” Colas added, “but they aren't worth zero until the cash is gone.”","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":339,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":128229024,"gmtCreate":1624519489368,"gmtModify":1634004938106,"author":{"id":"3575190540714273","authorId":"3575190540714273","name":"hminjoon","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/84d00aa235bffbcf955ca0b965aeb40d","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3575190540714273","authorIdStr":"3575190540714273"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Moooon","listText":"Moooon","text":"Moooon","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/128229024","repostId":"1138132786","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1138132786","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1624518924,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1138132786?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-24 15:15","market":"other","language":"en","title":"Visa to buy Swedish fintech start-up Tink for $2.1 billion","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1138132786","media":"cnbc","summary":"ONDON —Visahas agreed to acquire Swedish financial technology start-up Tink for 1.8 billion euros ($","content":"<div>\n<p>ONDON —Visahas agreed to acquire Swedish financial technology start-up Tink for 1.8 billion euros ($2.1 billion).\nThe deal comes after the payment giant's bid to buy American fintech firm Plaid was ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.cnbc.com/2021/06/24/visa-to-buy-swedish-fintech-start-up-tink.html\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n","source":"cnbc_highlight","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Visa to buy Swedish fintech start-up Tink for $2.1 billion</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nVisa to buy Swedish fintech start-up Tink for $2.1 billion\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-06-24 15:15 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.cnbc.com/2021/06/24/visa-to-buy-swedish-fintech-start-up-tink.html><strong>cnbc</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>ONDON —Visahas agreed to acquire Swedish financial technology start-up Tink for 1.8 billion euros ($2.1 billion).\nThe deal comes after the payment giant's bid to buy American fintech firm Plaid was ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.cnbc.com/2021/06/24/visa-to-buy-swedish-fintech-start-up-tink.html\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"V":"Visa"},"source_url":"https://www.cnbc.com/2021/06/24/visa-to-buy-swedish-fintech-start-up-tink.html","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/72bb72e1b84c09fca865c6dcb1bbcd16","article_id":"1138132786","content_text":"ONDON —Visahas agreed to acquire Swedish financial technology start-up Tink for 1.8 billion euros ($2.1 billion).\nThe deal comes after the payment giant's bid to buy American fintech firm Plaid was torpedoed by U.S. regulators.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":344,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":189381716,"gmtCreate":1623245586435,"gmtModify":1634035432560,"author":{"id":"3575190540714273","authorId":"3575190540714273","name":"hminjoon","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/84d00aa235bffbcf955ca0b965aeb40d","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3575190540714273","authorIdStr":"3575190540714273"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"🚀","listText":"🚀","text":"🚀","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/189381716","repostId":"1150769391","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1150769391","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Providing stock market headlines, business news, financials and earnings ","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Tiger Newspress","id":"1079075236","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1623239634,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1150769391?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-09 19:53","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Toplines Before US Market Open on Wednesday","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1150769391","media":"Tiger Newspress","summary":"Stock futures traded mixed Wednesday morning as investors considered more mixed data on the U.S. eco","content":"<ul>\n <li>Stock futures traded mixed Wednesday morning as investors considered more mixed data on the U.S. economic recovery.</li>\n <li>A resurgence in the social media-fueled \"meme stocks.</li>\n <li>Newest meme stock Clover Health is set to soar again.</li>\n <li>Shares of major banks came under some pressure as bond yields sank to one-month lows.</li>\n</ul>\n<p>(June 9)&nbsp;U.S. stock index futures were little changed on Wednesday as a lack of clear catalysts kept trading slow, with investors awaiting fresh cues from inflation data this week and an upcoming Federal Reserve meeting.</p>\n<p>At 7:48 a.m. ET, Dow e-minis were down 54 points, or 0.16%, S&amp;P 500 e-minis were up 0.5 points, or 0.01%, and Nasdaq 100 e-minis were up 30.25 points, or 0.22%.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e3a1c4aedbfac21d4c2feae0a05614f3\" tg-width=\"1242\" tg-height=\"478\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>7:48 a.m. ET</span></p>\n<p>But buying into so-called “meme stocks” by small-time retail investors continued, with the new social media favorite Clover Health surging 25.73% in premarket trade after jumping 85% to a record high on Tuesday.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ef37b731791f10c5962707211941a638\" tg-width=\"750\" tg-height=\"514\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>GameStop - the company most closely associated with the retail rally this year - rose 1.03% ahead of its quarterly results, due after the bell.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ac557bd1a3e7455529267059a84f206b\" tg-width=\"750\" tg-height=\"514\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>Wall Street indexes have moved little this week amid a dearth of cues, with most investors sticking to the sidelines ahead of key inflation data on Thursday.</p>\n<p>The Fed’s meeting next week is also expected to shed more light on the bank’s policy tapering plans. While inflation has surged in recent months, a sluggish labor market is broadly expected to keep the bank dovish.</p>\n<h3><b>Stocks making the biggest moves in the premarket:</b></h3>\n<p><b>1)&nbsp;Clover Health(CLOV),Wendy's(WEN) </b>– The two stocksextended their gainsin premarket trading, after surging yesterday on increased social media attention. Clover – a seller of health-care insurance that went public via a SPAC deal in October – has risen for the past six days, capped by a nearly 86% surge Tuesday. It soared 24.2% in premarket action, while Wendy's – up nearly 26% in yesterday's trading – added another 4.3% this morning.</p>\n<p><b>2)&nbsp;Campbell Soup(CPB) </b>– The food producer reported quarterly earnings of 57 cents per share, missing consensus by 9 cents a share. Revenue also missed forecasts as results lagged year-ago figures that were boosted by pandemic-related demand. Campbell also cut its full-year forecast, reflecting both those quarterly results and the recent sale of its Plum baby food and snacks business. Campbell shares tumbled 5.8% in the premarket.</p>\n<p><b>3)&nbsp;Lordstown Motors(RIDE)</b> – Lordstown Motors said there was \"substantial doubt\" about its ability to continue as a going concern. The electric truck maker said in a Securities and Exchange Commission filing that it is having problems funding vehicle production. Lordstown plunged more than 16% yesterday ahead of the news, and slid another 4.2% in premarket trading.</p>\n<p><b>4)&nbsp;Target(TGT) </b>– The retailer increased its quarterly dividend to 90 cents per share from 68 cents a share, a jump of 32%. The improved payout will go to shareholders of record as of Aug. 18, to be paid on Sept. 10.</p>\n<p><b>5)&nbsp;Merck(MRK)</b> – The drugmaker struck an agreement to supply the government with molnupiravir, an oral treatment designed to treat mild to moderate cases of Covid-19. The drug is currently being evaluated in a phase 3 trial.</p>\n<p><b>6)&nbsp;Fastly(FSLY)</b> – Fastly issued an apology for Tuesday’s widespread internet outage, with the cloud computing company saying the incident was caused by a software bug that was triggered when a customer changed settings. Fastly rose 2.4% in the premarket.</p>\n<p><b>7)&nbsp;Sherwin-Williams(SHW) </b>– Sherwin-Williams raised its sales and profit guidance for the year, as the paint maker sees pandemic-induced demand for its products continuing even as the pandemic recedes. The company is also raising its prices to deal with higher costs for raw materials. Sherwin-Williams fell 1.3% in the premarket.</p>\n<p><b>8)&nbsp;Casey’s General Stores(CASY)</b> – Casey’s reported quarterly earnings of $1.12 per share, beating the consensus estimate of 88 cents a share. The convenience store chain’s revenue exceeded estimates as well. Same-store sales, excluding gasoline purchases, rose 12.8% as customer traffic steadily increased.</p>\n<p><b>9)&nbsp;Fox Corp.(FOXA) </b>– Fox added 1.8% in the premarket following an upgrade to “overweight” from “equal weight” at Wells Fargo Securities, which feels the stock could benefit from Fox’s presence in sports gambling despite pressures from cord-cutting.</p>\n<p><b>10)&nbsp;Abercrombie &amp; Fitch(ANF)</b> – The apparel retailer was upgraded to “buy” from “hold” at Jefferies, which points to ongoing benefits from years of brand elevation efforts as well as an increase in profit margins. Abercrombie rose 2.9% in premarket trading.</p>\n<p><b>11)&nbsp;GameStop(GME)</b> – The videogame retailer will report quarterly earnings after today’s closing bell. GameStop shares surged the past two days amid renewed buying in the so-called “meme” stocks.</p>\n<p><b>12)&nbsp;Ferrari(RACE) </b>– Ferrari namedSTMicroelectronics(STM) executive Benedetto Vignaas its new CEO, filling a position that had been vacant for six months since Louis Camilleri retired as the automaker’s chief. Vigna – who runs chipmaker STMicro’s biggest division – will begin his new duties at Ferrari on Sept. 1.</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Toplines Before US Market Open on Wednesday</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nToplines Before US Market Open on Wednesday\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1079075236\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Tiger Newspress </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2021-06-09 19:53</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<ul>\n <li>Stock futures traded mixed Wednesday morning as investors considered more mixed data on the U.S. economic recovery.</li>\n <li>A resurgence in the social media-fueled \"meme stocks.</li>\n <li>Newest meme stock Clover Health is set to soar again.</li>\n <li>Shares of major banks came under some pressure as bond yields sank to one-month lows.</li>\n</ul>\n<p>(June 9)&nbsp;U.S. stock index futures were little changed on Wednesday as a lack of clear catalysts kept trading slow, with investors awaiting fresh cues from inflation data this week and an upcoming Federal Reserve meeting.</p>\n<p>At 7:48 a.m. ET, Dow e-minis were down 54 points, or 0.16%, S&amp;P 500 e-minis were up 0.5 points, or 0.01%, and Nasdaq 100 e-minis were up 30.25 points, or 0.22%.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e3a1c4aedbfac21d4c2feae0a05614f3\" tg-width=\"1242\" tg-height=\"478\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>7:48 a.m. ET</span></p>\n<p>But buying into so-called “meme stocks” by small-time retail investors continued, with the new social media favorite Clover Health surging 25.73% in premarket trade after jumping 85% to a record high on Tuesday.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ef37b731791f10c5962707211941a638\" tg-width=\"750\" tg-height=\"514\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>GameStop - the company most closely associated with the retail rally this year - rose 1.03% ahead of its quarterly results, due after the bell.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ac557bd1a3e7455529267059a84f206b\" tg-width=\"750\" tg-height=\"514\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>Wall Street indexes have moved little this week amid a dearth of cues, with most investors sticking to the sidelines ahead of key inflation data on Thursday.</p>\n<p>The Fed’s meeting next week is also expected to shed more light on the bank’s policy tapering plans. While inflation has surged in recent months, a sluggish labor market is broadly expected to keep the bank dovish.</p>\n<h3><b>Stocks making the biggest moves in the premarket:</b></h3>\n<p><b>1)&nbsp;Clover Health(CLOV),Wendy's(WEN) </b>– The two stocksextended their gainsin premarket trading, after surging yesterday on increased social media attention. Clover – a seller of health-care insurance that went public via a SPAC deal in October – has risen for the past six days, capped by a nearly 86% surge Tuesday. It soared 24.2% in premarket action, while Wendy's – up nearly 26% in yesterday's trading – added another 4.3% this morning.</p>\n<p><b>2)&nbsp;Campbell Soup(CPB) </b>– The food producer reported quarterly earnings of 57 cents per share, missing consensus by 9 cents a share. Revenue also missed forecasts as results lagged year-ago figures that were boosted by pandemic-related demand. Campbell also cut its full-year forecast, reflecting both those quarterly results and the recent sale of its Plum baby food and snacks business. Campbell shares tumbled 5.8% in the premarket.</p>\n<p><b>3)&nbsp;Lordstown Motors(RIDE)</b> – Lordstown Motors said there was \"substantial doubt\" about its ability to continue as a going concern. The electric truck maker said in a Securities and Exchange Commission filing that it is having problems funding vehicle production. Lordstown plunged more than 16% yesterday ahead of the news, and slid another 4.2% in premarket trading.</p>\n<p><b>4)&nbsp;Target(TGT) </b>– The retailer increased its quarterly dividend to 90 cents per share from 68 cents a share, a jump of 32%. The improved payout will go to shareholders of record as of Aug. 18, to be paid on Sept. 10.</p>\n<p><b>5)&nbsp;Merck(MRK)</b> – The drugmaker struck an agreement to supply the government with molnupiravir, an oral treatment designed to treat mild to moderate cases of Covid-19. The drug is currently being evaluated in a phase 3 trial.</p>\n<p><b>6)&nbsp;Fastly(FSLY)</b> – Fastly issued an apology for Tuesday’s widespread internet outage, with the cloud computing company saying the incident was caused by a software bug that was triggered when a customer changed settings. Fastly rose 2.4% in the premarket.</p>\n<p><b>7)&nbsp;Sherwin-Williams(SHW) </b>– Sherwin-Williams raised its sales and profit guidance for the year, as the paint maker sees pandemic-induced demand for its products continuing even as the pandemic recedes. The company is also raising its prices to deal with higher costs for raw materials. Sherwin-Williams fell 1.3% in the premarket.</p>\n<p><b>8)&nbsp;Casey’s General Stores(CASY)</b> – Casey’s reported quarterly earnings of $1.12 per share, beating the consensus estimate of 88 cents a share. The convenience store chain’s revenue exceeded estimates as well. Same-store sales, excluding gasoline purchases, rose 12.8% as customer traffic steadily increased.</p>\n<p><b>9)&nbsp;Fox Corp.(FOXA) </b>– Fox added 1.8% in the premarket following an upgrade to “overweight” from “equal weight” at Wells Fargo Securities, which feels the stock could benefit from Fox’s presence in sports gambling despite pressures from cord-cutting.</p>\n<p><b>10)&nbsp;Abercrombie &amp; Fitch(ANF)</b> – The apparel retailer was upgraded to “buy” from “hold” at Jefferies, which points to ongoing benefits from years of brand elevation efforts as well as an increase in profit margins. Abercrombie rose 2.9% in premarket trading.</p>\n<p><b>11)&nbsp;GameStop(GME)</b> – The videogame retailer will report quarterly earnings after today’s closing bell. GameStop shares surged the past two days amid renewed buying in the so-called “meme” stocks.</p>\n<p><b>12)&nbsp;Ferrari(RACE) </b>– Ferrari namedSTMicroelectronics(STM) executive Benedetto Vignaas its new CEO, filling a position that had been vacant for six months since Louis Camilleri retired as the automaker’s chief. Vigna – who runs chipmaker STMicro’s biggest division – will begin his new duties at Ferrari on Sept. 1.</p>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","SPY":"标普500ETF",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯"},"is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1150769391","content_text":"Stock futures traded mixed Wednesday morning as investors considered more mixed data on the U.S. economic recovery.\nA resurgence in the social media-fueled \"meme stocks.\nNewest meme stock Clover Health is set to soar again.\nShares of major banks came under some pressure as bond yields sank to one-month lows.\n\n(June 9) U.S. stock index futures were little changed on Wednesday as a lack of clear catalysts kept trading slow, with investors awaiting fresh cues from inflation data this week and an upcoming Federal Reserve meeting.\nAt 7:48 a.m. ET, Dow e-minis were down 54 points, or 0.16%, S&P 500 e-minis were up 0.5 points, or 0.01%, and Nasdaq 100 e-minis were up 30.25 points, or 0.22%.\n7:48 a.m. ET\nBut buying into so-called “meme stocks” by small-time retail investors continued, with the new social media favorite Clover Health surging 25.73% in premarket trade after jumping 85% to a record high on Tuesday.\n\nGameStop - the company most closely associated with the retail rally this year - rose 1.03% ahead of its quarterly results, due after the bell.\n\nWall Street indexes have moved little this week amid a dearth of cues, with most investors sticking to the sidelines ahead of key inflation data on Thursday.\nThe Fed’s meeting next week is also expected to shed more light on the bank’s policy tapering plans. While inflation has surged in recent months, a sluggish labor market is broadly expected to keep the bank dovish.\nStocks making the biggest moves in the premarket:\n1) Clover Health(CLOV),Wendy's(WEN) – The two stocksextended their gainsin premarket trading, after surging yesterday on increased social media attention. Clover – a seller of health-care insurance that went public via a SPAC deal in October – has risen for the past six days, capped by a nearly 86% surge Tuesday. It soared 24.2% in premarket action, while Wendy's – up nearly 26% in yesterday's trading – added another 4.3% this morning.\n2) Campbell Soup(CPB) – The food producer reported quarterly earnings of 57 cents per share, missing consensus by 9 cents a share. Revenue also missed forecasts as results lagged year-ago figures that were boosted by pandemic-related demand. Campbell also cut its full-year forecast, reflecting both those quarterly results and the recent sale of its Plum baby food and snacks business. Campbell shares tumbled 5.8% in the premarket.\n3) Lordstown Motors(RIDE) – Lordstown Motors said there was \"substantial doubt\" about its ability to continue as a going concern. The electric truck maker said in a Securities and Exchange Commission filing that it is having problems funding vehicle production. Lordstown plunged more than 16% yesterday ahead of the news, and slid another 4.2% in premarket trading.\n4) Target(TGT) – The retailer increased its quarterly dividend to 90 cents per share from 68 cents a share, a jump of 32%. The improved payout will go to shareholders of record as of Aug. 18, to be paid on Sept. 10.\n5) Merck(MRK) – The drugmaker struck an agreement to supply the government with molnupiravir, an oral treatment designed to treat mild to moderate cases of Covid-19. The drug is currently being evaluated in a phase 3 trial.\n6) Fastly(FSLY) – Fastly issued an apology for Tuesday’s widespread internet outage, with the cloud computing company saying the incident was caused by a software bug that was triggered when a customer changed settings. Fastly rose 2.4% in the premarket.\n7) Sherwin-Williams(SHW) – Sherwin-Williams raised its sales and profit guidance for the year, as the paint maker sees pandemic-induced demand for its products continuing even as the pandemic recedes. The company is also raising its prices to deal with higher costs for raw materials. Sherwin-Williams fell 1.3% in the premarket.\n8) Casey’s General Stores(CASY) – Casey’s reported quarterly earnings of $1.12 per share, beating the consensus estimate of 88 cents a share. The convenience store chain’s revenue exceeded estimates as well. Same-store sales, excluding gasoline purchases, rose 12.8% as customer traffic steadily increased.\n9) Fox Corp.(FOXA) – Fox added 1.8% in the premarket following an upgrade to “overweight” from “equal weight” at Wells Fargo Securities, which feels the stock could benefit from Fox’s presence in sports gambling despite pressures from cord-cutting.\n10) Abercrombie & Fitch(ANF) – The apparel retailer was upgraded to “buy” from “hold” at Jefferies, which points to ongoing benefits from years of brand elevation efforts as well as an increase in profit margins. Abercrombie rose 2.9% in premarket trading.\n11) GameStop(GME) – The videogame retailer will report quarterly earnings after today’s closing bell. GameStop shares surged the past two days amid renewed buying in the so-called “meme” stocks.\n12) Ferrari(RACE) – Ferrari namedSTMicroelectronics(STM) executive Benedetto Vignaas its new CEO, filling a position that had been vacant for six months since Louis Camilleri retired as the automaker’s chief. Vigna – who runs chipmaker STMicro’s biggest division – will begin his new duties at Ferrari on Sept. 1.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":588,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":172882810,"gmtCreate":1626951731930,"gmtModify":1633769458451,"author":{"id":"3575190540714273","authorId":"3575190540714273","name":"hminjoon","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/84d00aa235bffbcf955ca0b965aeb40d","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3575190540714273","authorIdStr":"3575190540714273"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"FUD","listText":"FUD","text":"FUD","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/172882810","repostId":"1192458370","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1192458370","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1626938362,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1192458370?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-07-22 15:19","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Entering The Worst Seasonal Period Of The Year, And 10 Other Reasons Why Goldman Braces For An August Correction","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1192458370","media":"zerohedge","summary":"In a stark reversal to its bullish sentiment at the start of the month, when the bank first noted - ","content":"<p>In a stark reversal to its bullish sentiment at the start of the month, when the bank first noted - correctly - that the S&amp;P was entering itsbest 2-week seasonal period of the yearwhich it did between July 1 and 15 when it posted a series of new all time highs (before dumping on the 16th and the 19th)...</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e7dc88222112e4655f492c56509f9d64\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"467\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>... followed by a lengthy rationalization why \"the shorts will have to cover\", Goldman has been turning surprisingly bearish in recent days, and two days after Goldman flow trader John Flood urged Goldman clients \"not to buy this dip\" on Monday (spoiler alert: they did) his trading desk colleague Scott Rubner has published a report previewing why he anticipates a correction in the coming days and continuing through the Jackson Hole symposium at the end of August.</p>\n<p>His note, from which we excerpt below, contains the key arguments behind Goldman's August \"correction\" thesis, including tactical flow of funds, an acceleration of sellers, and feedback from the GS equity trading floor.</p>\n<p>So without further ado, here is Rubner, who lays out his \"<b><i>11 point checklist for an August correction\"</i></b>, starting by noting that \"<i>the #1 question that has hit my inbox/IB in the past 48 hours. What happens to the equity market when there is an outflow and buy demand slows?</i>\" As we read below, the most appropriate answer is \"nothing good.\"</p>\n<blockquote>\n <i>11 point Checklist - Consensus client feedback for a quick equity risk reduction into potentially lower buy demand into Jackson hole. The consensus feedback seems to be calling for a -5% correction, which really gets to -4%. This is a recap of the talking points about to hit your inbox this week. I think this morning’s rally gets faded as buy tickets are completed early in the day.</i> \n <i><b>“Selling rallies” is the new dynamic vs. buying dips.</b></i>\n</blockquote>\n<p><u><b>1. Weak Seasonals</b></u>- Since 1928, we just exited the best two-week period of the year. Friday’s option expiry ended the best seasonal period of the year.<b>August seasonals are not market friendly and trend lower all of August, for the 4th worst two-week seasonal period of the year</b>. Today you are here and Jackson hole is the low point of this chart. Since 1950, there have been 19 times in 72 years that the S&amp;P is up at least &gt;10% through the first half of the year. The median return for August specifically, following a strong 1H is typically down -51bps, before rallying higher.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f41d55d3d45aecb40b0f24e53de17363\" tg-width=\"694\" tg-height=\"499\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p><u><b>2. Largest outflows of the year</b></u>- Investors allocate capital into the market in July and we have seen these record inflows. This is the biggest dynamic in the equity market this year period. Inflows continue at a record pace, annualizing at $1.2 trillion inflows for 2021. 401k inflows predominately flowed in S&amp;P and NDX rather than ROW.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9d67c2e0a1590d44ff3be03c2c86c88e\" tg-width=\"645\" tg-height=\"368\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a58d02645303f22b7e53b58698e11f56\" tg-width=\"508\" tg-height=\"338\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p><u><b>3. Reversal of flows predicted for August</b></u>- Equity inflows are not common in August. Over the last 30 years,<b>August typically sees the largest outflows of the year</b>. -15bps of AUM typically leaves stock market funds in August, on ~22 Trillion, we model -$33B worth of equities for sale.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3308ac184f4fde82ba6c27fbcfbdd86f\" tg-width=\"579\" tg-height=\"340\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/005f51048f49a72597db950884245e8c\" tg-width=\"563\" tg-height=\"351\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p><b><u>4. Outflows cont.</u></b>To be clear, -$33B is not a significant $ figure when adjusted for market cap, however more important is that it’s not an inflow. The index level has remained at ATHs given inflows bid up the largest and biggest market cap index weights. On Monday we saw a large MOC imbalance for sale, this was unusual.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d98939cb6e06e80bc643fdca6801fb0a\" tg-width=\"268\" tg-height=\"474\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p><u><b>5. Passive flows drive largest marketcaps</b></u>- Passive ETFs logged the best full year of inflows on record, in just the first half of the year. (+500b). I watch the tape every day register large MOC imbalances to buy at 3:50pm EST,<b>but what if this dynamic fades.</b>Remember $1 inflow into SPY flows $.23 cents into top 5 companies and $1 inflow into QQQ flows $.41 cents into top 5. If inflows flip to outflows you will no longer see broad index dynamic.<b>Then investors need to decide which sector becomes the funding source for outflows.</b></p>\n<p>Just how important has this been for the S&amp;P 500? Important!</p>\n<ul>\n <li>Global Equity: 1-year: +$600B passive (IN) vs. $0.0B active (OUT) = &gt;$600B.</li>\n <li>Global Equity: 5-year: +$2.30T passive (IN) vs. -$1.90T active (OUT) = &gt;$4.2T</li>\n <li>Global Equity: 10-year: +$4T passive (IN) vs. -$3.0T active (OUT) = &gt;$7.0T</li>\n <li>Current Global Equity Active AUM of $10.099T exceeds &gt; Current Global Equity Passive AUM $7.225 T.</li>\n</ul>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/72aadadcd243a659f1e3cc9fc8f75c1b\" tg-width=\"666\" tg-height=\"375\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5419e040f7d023061743d473ffef59d1\" tg-width=\"666\" tg-height=\"375\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4fff3382eec0b783b12411fb653c6718\" tg-width=\"663\" tg-height=\"377\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p><i>Side note: ETFs represented 36% of the notional executed volumes, last levels since in March/April 2020. (YTD average) = 24%. Did you see the massive volumes in SQQQ Monday (3x short QQQ)?</i></p>\n<p><u><b>6. Single Stock Calls</b></u>- This is set up is very similar to July and August 2020 blow-off top as a result of call option trading. Reminder, S&amp;P sold off -392bps in September 2020 after call option volumes started to fade.</p>\n<ul>\n <li>Option notional has averaged an all-time record of +$550B per day in July. The top 3 traded stocks (AAPL, AMZN, and TSLA) make up $300B of daily volumes. Breadth in both options and stocks is low.</li>\n <li>\"Of 4000 Tradeable Single Stock options, the top 3 names make up 56% of the daily avg notional traded. Adding in the next 7, that ratio jumps to 72%.\"</li>\n <li>\"Said another way the top 10 underliers trade 3x more notional on an average day than the bottom 3990”</li>\n <li>This is an important dynamic to monitor.</li>\n</ul>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/be539bca2d8b556e65d32bbe28f2abb4\" tg-width=\"676\" tg-height=\"441\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p><u><b>7. Call Options cont.</b></u>- Retail has pivoted from trading weekly call options on GME and AMC - only $6B combined notional per day to the stay-at-home playbook. The names with the highest daily option trading are also the largest index weights. In addition to ETF flows, the retail call option buying frenzy also takes the street short weekly gamma on single names. 75% of single stock options traded today have an expiry of two weeks or less.<b>Said another way, given GS YOLO risk sentiment basket has rolled over, does AAPL need to catch down next (or at least not see YOLO flows).</b></p>\n<p>$181bln/day AMZN</p>\n<p>$ 82bln/day TSLA</p>\n<p>$ 36bln/day AAPL</p>\n<p>--------------</p>\n<p><b>TOTAL TSLA/AMZN/AAPL: $299bln/day&nbsp; ------- What happens if call volume in mega cap tech declines?</b></p>\n<ul>\n <li>$ 26bln/day NVDA</li>\n <li>$ 14bln/day GOOGL</li>\n <li>$ 11bln/day FB</li>\n <li>$ 10bln/day MSFT</li>\n <li>$&nbsp; 8bln/day SHOP</li>\n <li>$&nbsp; 8bln/day GOOG</li>\n <li>$&nbsp; 8bln/day NFLX</li>\n <li>$&nbsp; 7bln/day BABA</li>\n</ul>\n<p>--------------</p>\n<p><b>TOTAL GOOG/GOOGL/MSFT/FB/NFLX/NVDA/SHOP/BABA: $90bln/day</b></p>\n<ul>\n <li>$&nbsp; 4bln/day AMC</li>\n <li>$&nbsp; 2bln/day GME</li>\n</ul>\n<p>--------------</p>\n<p><b>TOTAL AMC/GME: $6bln/day&nbsp; ------- No Mo’ Yolo? See chart below.</b></p>\n<p>All other underlyings: $141bln/day</p>\n<p><u><i><b>Total single stock option market:</b></i></u></p>\n<ul>\n <li>$299bln/day TSLA/AMZN/AAPL</li>\n <li>$ 90bln/day GOOG/GOOGL/MSFT/FB/NFLX/NVDA/SHOP/BABA</li>\n <li>$&nbsp; 6bln/day AMC/GME</li>\n <li>$141bln/day All other underlyings</li>\n</ul>\n<p>--------------------</p>\n<p><b>$537bln/day Total</b></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1f5678ad5b66dd918c2cbb51263c9df0\" tg-width=\"650\" tg-height=\"450\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p><b><u>8. Option Gamma Unwinds</u></b>- Option Expiry just rolled off -85% of the market long gamma. The market now has the ability to move more freely and trade less long gamma. Everyday last week the market would rally into the bell as dealers re-hedge their gamma (buying the dips). I get worried about summer end-of-day liquidity without gamma hedging and passive demand. I think there will be also a “institutional” demand to buy hedges into Jackson Hole fulling removing the long gamma taking the street short to hedge downside. We have seen more puts and put spreads on the desk this week than any week of 2021.</p>\n<ul>\n <li>Wednesday (7/14) SPX gamma = +$4,625B</li>\n <li>Thursday (7/15) SPX gamma = +$3,620B</li>\n <li>Friday (7/16) SPX gamma = +$3,136B</li>\n <li>Monday (7/19) SPX gamma = +$2,698B</li>\n <li>Tuesday (7/20) SPX Gamma = +$713B.</li>\n</ul>\n<p><b>the Long S&amp;P 500 gamma has been reduced by -85% in the past 5 days taking dealers less long gamma.</b>This dynamic changes market behavior and we are seeing little demand to systematically overwrite from here even despite the move higher in vols. This is new.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b78215d53696f99f4c746f296ae2d225\" tg-width=\"797\" tg-height=\"598\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p><u><b>9. Systematic</b></u>- Non-economic is already near the max exposure and have little scope to add further from here. No threshold levels have triggered so far, but it is important to note the lack of ability to add from here, which asymmetrically skews the downside.</p>\n<ul>\n <li><b>CTA</b>- 90% percentile on 1-year rank, 84% percentile on 3-yr rank.</li>\n <li><b>GS models</b>-$9B of equities for sale over the next week. CTA’s are sellers in an up tape, down tape, down big tape. That’s not common. Check out big asymmetry to the downside over the next 1 month.</li>\n <li><b>GS short term CTA ES1 Flip Level</b>= $4,257.90. We tripped this circuit breaker yesterday, but are higher this am. I expect GS sell expectations to increase.</li>\n</ul>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3efe5f0b54f671b5c1b366ff5514cf5c\" tg-width=\"751\" tg-height=\"323\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/232a48ec7525cb179f6cd8bc285b7e55\" tg-width=\"499\" tg-height=\"300\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p><b>b) Vol Control - 86% percentile on 1-year rank, 75% percentile on 3-yr rank. FYI. SPX Put/Call Ratio hit a fresh 1 year high yesterday.</b></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a5553785fd8a0a66e717f5579ba6ee91\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"300\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p><b>c) Risk Parity - 100% percentile on 1-year rank, 53% percentile on 3-yr rank.</b></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9be4d94aa1cd38dad335c1424d3be626\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"300\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p><b>d) Total Systematic - 92% percentile on 1-year rank, 80% percentile on 3-yr rank. This is important. This non-emotional demand is at the max and will be sellers lower.</b></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4068fa4e9a8c6c06f77627c9ee6e07b8\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"300\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p><u><b>10. Liquidity</b></u>- The unofficial Rubner out of office outlook (OOO) reply meter. My note last week has week had the largest out of office kickbacks to the tune of “see you in a few weeks” or “gone fishing”. The upcoming calendar into Jackson Hole is important.</p>\n<ol>\n <li>next few weeks, extended vacation schedule first time in 12 months, etc, moved forward because Jackson hole.</li>\n <li>Jackson Hole, August 26 (Thursday) - August 28 (Saturday) – Friday is the likely the key calendar, but potentially Saturday will be important. This moves hedges to the following week.</li>\n <li>Labor Day, September 6 (Monday exchange holiday) - late this year</li>\n <li>approximate First day of Children’s school, September 7 (Tuesday)</li>\n <li>Liquidity = August Summer – ZZZZ. Top book liquidity declined SUBSTANTIALLY into the sell off yesterday.</li>\n</ol>\n<p>*** despite being ranked 10 in the checklist. This is really chart #1. Liquidity dried up substantially yesterday on the screens. This chart peaked at $36M last Monday to $10.810M yesterday. This is a drop of $25M $ or ~70% in on screws liquidity in 1 week.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/60db9087f28d7496be38eafbc0fa755e\" tg-width=\"650\" tg-height=\"450\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p><u><b>11. Buybacks</b></u>: Buybacks are here, but so is equity issuance, which neutralizes the buyback impulse. As corporates meet corporates. From Sales and trading colleague, John Flood in his most recent trading note.</p>\n<p><i>“It has been a paper party and this paper is getting harder to place. Last week we priced 11 registered deals in the U.S. ($3b notional) and this week already working on another 18 ($10b). This is especially noteworthy while in the depths of July.“</i></p>\n<ul>\n <li>Last week there was $6.2 billion in equity issuance, compared with the July weekly average of $3.4 billion since 2000.</li>\n <li>Last week there were 27 equity deals brought to market, compared with the July average of 15 deals per week since 2000.</li>\n</ul>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b680be938f506ba528c382fdb7d805ba\" tg-width=\"897\" tg-height=\"606\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p><i><b>Bottom Line:</b></i><i>Keep Tactical Flow of Funds Checklist on your radar for August. The technical market structure dynamics changes substantially during August</i><i><b>. I think there will be a dip (-5%) and it is meant to be bought heading late into Jackson Hole.</b></i><i>The consensus is calling for a larger equity market correction, I do not see it given the amount of capital in the system. I change my tone if we trigger key levels to the downside as sellers are lower. If August outflows actually happen, I think tech underperforms cyclical value reopen given high concentration and largest passive impact.</i><i><b>Once we see the first outflow in August, this will be the macro trigger for a tactical short</b></i><i>. Stay tuned and keep an eye on liquidity.</i></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Entering The Worst Seasonal Period Of The Year, And 10 Other Reasons Why Goldman Braces For An August Correction</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nEntering The Worst Seasonal Period Of The Year, And 10 Other Reasons Why Goldman Braces For An August Correction\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-07-22 15:19 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/entering-worst-seasonal-period-year-and-10-other-reasons-why-goldman-braces-august><strong>zerohedge</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>In a stark reversal to its bullish sentiment at the start of the month, when the bank first noted - correctly - that the S&P was entering itsbest 2-week seasonal period of the yearwhich it did between...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/entering-worst-seasonal-period-year-and-10-other-reasons-why-goldman-braces-august\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"SPY":"标普500ETF",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/entering-worst-seasonal-period-year-and-10-other-reasons-why-goldman-braces-august","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1192458370","content_text":"In a stark reversal to its bullish sentiment at the start of the month, when the bank first noted - correctly - that the S&P was entering itsbest 2-week seasonal period of the yearwhich it did between July 1 and 15 when it posted a series of new all time highs (before dumping on the 16th and the 19th)...\n\n... followed by a lengthy rationalization why \"the shorts will have to cover\", Goldman has been turning surprisingly bearish in recent days, and two days after Goldman flow trader John Flood urged Goldman clients \"not to buy this dip\" on Monday (spoiler alert: they did) his trading desk colleague Scott Rubner has published a report previewing why he anticipates a correction in the coming days and continuing through the Jackson Hole symposium at the end of August.\nHis note, from which we excerpt below, contains the key arguments behind Goldman's August \"correction\" thesis, including tactical flow of funds, an acceleration of sellers, and feedback from the GS equity trading floor.\nSo without further ado, here is Rubner, who lays out his \"11 point checklist for an August correction\", starting by noting that \"the #1 question that has hit my inbox/IB in the past 48 hours. What happens to the equity market when there is an outflow and buy demand slows?\" As we read below, the most appropriate answer is \"nothing good.\"\n\n11 point Checklist - Consensus client feedback for a quick equity risk reduction into potentially lower buy demand into Jackson hole. The consensus feedback seems to be calling for a -5% correction, which really gets to -4%. This is a recap of the talking points about to hit your inbox this week. I think this morning’s rally gets faded as buy tickets are completed early in the day.\n“Selling rallies” is the new dynamic vs. buying dips.\n\n1. Weak Seasonals- Since 1928, we just exited the best two-week period of the year. Friday’s option expiry ended the best seasonal period of the year.August seasonals are not market friendly and trend lower all of August, for the 4th worst two-week seasonal period of the year. Today you are here and Jackson hole is the low point of this chart. Since 1950, there have been 19 times in 72 years that the S&P is up at least >10% through the first half of the year. The median return for August specifically, following a strong 1H is typically down -51bps, before rallying higher.\n\n2. Largest outflows of the year- Investors allocate capital into the market in July and we have seen these record inflows. This is the biggest dynamic in the equity market this year period. Inflows continue at a record pace, annualizing at $1.2 trillion inflows for 2021. 401k inflows predominately flowed in S&P and NDX rather than ROW.\n\n3. Reversal of flows predicted for August- Equity inflows are not common in August. Over the last 30 years,August typically sees the largest outflows of the year. -15bps of AUM typically leaves stock market funds in August, on ~22 Trillion, we model -$33B worth of equities for sale.\n\n4. Outflows cont.To be clear, -$33B is not a significant $ figure when adjusted for market cap, however more important is that it’s not an inflow. The index level has remained at ATHs given inflows bid up the largest and biggest market cap index weights. On Monday we saw a large MOC imbalance for sale, this was unusual.\n\n5. Passive flows drive largest marketcaps- Passive ETFs logged the best full year of inflows on record, in just the first half of the year. (+500b). I watch the tape every day register large MOC imbalances to buy at 3:50pm EST,but what if this dynamic fades.Remember $1 inflow into SPY flows $.23 cents into top 5 companies and $1 inflow into QQQ flows $.41 cents into top 5. If inflows flip to outflows you will no longer see broad index dynamic.Then investors need to decide which sector becomes the funding source for outflows.\nJust how important has this been for the S&P 500? Important!\n\nGlobal Equity: 1-year: +$600B passive (IN) vs. $0.0B active (OUT) = >$600B.\nGlobal Equity: 5-year: +$2.30T passive (IN) vs. -$1.90T active (OUT) = >$4.2T\nGlobal Equity: 10-year: +$4T passive (IN) vs. -$3.0T active (OUT) = >$7.0T\nCurrent Global Equity Active AUM of $10.099T exceeds > Current Global Equity Passive AUM $7.225 T.\n\n\nSide note: ETFs represented 36% of the notional executed volumes, last levels since in March/April 2020. (YTD average) = 24%. Did you see the massive volumes in SQQQ Monday (3x short QQQ)?\n6. Single Stock Calls- This is set up is very similar to July and August 2020 blow-off top as a result of call option trading. Reminder, S&P sold off -392bps in September 2020 after call option volumes started to fade.\n\nOption notional has averaged an all-time record of +$550B per day in July. The top 3 traded stocks (AAPL, AMZN, and TSLA) make up $300B of daily volumes. Breadth in both options and stocks is low.\n\"Of 4000 Tradeable Single Stock options, the top 3 names make up 56% of the daily avg notional traded. Adding in the next 7, that ratio jumps to 72%.\"\n\"Said another way the top 10 underliers trade 3x more notional on an average day than the bottom 3990”\nThis is an important dynamic to monitor.\n\n\n7. Call Options cont.- Retail has pivoted from trading weekly call options on GME and AMC - only $6B combined notional per day to the stay-at-home playbook. The names with the highest daily option trading are also the largest index weights. In addition to ETF flows, the retail call option buying frenzy also takes the street short weekly gamma on single names. 75% of single stock options traded today have an expiry of two weeks or less.Said another way, given GS YOLO risk sentiment basket has rolled over, does AAPL need to catch down next (or at least not see YOLO flows).\n$181bln/day AMZN\n$ 82bln/day TSLA\n$ 36bln/day AAPL\n--------------\nTOTAL TSLA/AMZN/AAPL: $299bln/day  ------- What happens if call volume in mega cap tech declines?\n\n$ 26bln/day NVDA\n$ 14bln/day GOOGL\n$ 11bln/day FB\n$ 10bln/day MSFT\n$  8bln/day SHOP\n$  8bln/day GOOG\n$  8bln/day NFLX\n$  7bln/day BABA\n\n--------------\nTOTAL GOOG/GOOGL/MSFT/FB/NFLX/NVDA/SHOP/BABA: $90bln/day\n\n$  4bln/day AMC\n$  2bln/day GME\n\n--------------\nTOTAL AMC/GME: $6bln/day  ------- No Mo’ Yolo? See chart below.\nAll other underlyings: $141bln/day\nTotal single stock option market:\n\n$299bln/day TSLA/AMZN/AAPL\n$ 90bln/day GOOG/GOOGL/MSFT/FB/NFLX/NVDA/SHOP/BABA\n$  6bln/day AMC/GME\n$141bln/day All other underlyings\n\n--------------------\n$537bln/day Total\n\n8. Option Gamma Unwinds- Option Expiry just rolled off -85% of the market long gamma. The market now has the ability to move more freely and trade less long gamma. Everyday last week the market would rally into the bell as dealers re-hedge their gamma (buying the dips). I get worried about summer end-of-day liquidity without gamma hedging and passive demand. I think there will be also a “institutional” demand to buy hedges into Jackson Hole fulling removing the long gamma taking the street short to hedge downside. We have seen more puts and put spreads on the desk this week than any week of 2021.\n\nWednesday (7/14) SPX gamma = +$4,625B\nThursday (7/15) SPX gamma = +$3,620B\nFriday (7/16) SPX gamma = +$3,136B\nMonday (7/19) SPX gamma = +$2,698B\nTuesday (7/20) SPX Gamma = +$713B.\n\nthe Long S&P 500 gamma has been reduced by -85% in the past 5 days taking dealers less long gamma.This dynamic changes market behavior and we are seeing little demand to systematically overwrite from here even despite the move higher in vols. This is new.\n\n9. Systematic- Non-economic is already near the max exposure and have little scope to add further from here. No threshold levels have triggered so far, but it is important to note the lack of ability to add from here, which asymmetrically skews the downside.\n\nCTA- 90% percentile on 1-year rank, 84% percentile on 3-yr rank.\nGS models-$9B of equities for sale over the next week. CTA’s are sellers in an up tape, down tape, down big tape. That’s not common. Check out big asymmetry to the downside over the next 1 month.\nGS short term CTA ES1 Flip Level= $4,257.90. We tripped this circuit breaker yesterday, but are higher this am. I expect GS sell expectations to increase.\n\n\nb) Vol Control - 86% percentile on 1-year rank, 75% percentile on 3-yr rank. FYI. SPX Put/Call Ratio hit a fresh 1 year high yesterday.\n\nc) Risk Parity - 100% percentile on 1-year rank, 53% percentile on 3-yr rank.\n\nd) Total Systematic - 92% percentile on 1-year rank, 80% percentile on 3-yr rank. This is important. This non-emotional demand is at the max and will be sellers lower.\n\n10. Liquidity- The unofficial Rubner out of office outlook (OOO) reply meter. My note last week has week had the largest out of office kickbacks to the tune of “see you in a few weeks” or “gone fishing”. The upcoming calendar into Jackson Hole is important.\n\nnext few weeks, extended vacation schedule first time in 12 months, etc, moved forward because Jackson hole.\nJackson Hole, August 26 (Thursday) - August 28 (Saturday) – Friday is the likely the key calendar, but potentially Saturday will be important. This moves hedges to the following week.\nLabor Day, September 6 (Monday exchange holiday) - late this year\napproximate First day of Children’s school, September 7 (Tuesday)\nLiquidity = August Summer – ZZZZ. Top book liquidity declined SUBSTANTIALLY into the sell off yesterday.\n\n*** despite being ranked 10 in the checklist. This is really chart #1. Liquidity dried up substantially yesterday on the screens. This chart peaked at $36M last Monday to $10.810M yesterday. This is a drop of $25M $ or ~70% in on screws liquidity in 1 week.\n\n11. Buybacks: Buybacks are here, but so is equity issuance, which neutralizes the buyback impulse. As corporates meet corporates. From Sales and trading colleague, John Flood in his most recent trading note.\n“It has been a paper party and this paper is getting harder to place. Last week we priced 11 registered deals in the U.S. ($3b notional) and this week already working on another 18 ($10b). This is especially noteworthy while in the depths of July.“\n\nLast week there was $6.2 billion in equity issuance, compared with the July weekly average of $3.4 billion since 2000.\nLast week there were 27 equity deals brought to market, compared with the July average of 15 deals per week since 2000.\n\n\nBottom Line:Keep Tactical Flow of Funds Checklist on your radar for August. The technical market structure dynamics changes substantially during August. I think there will be a dip (-5%) and it is meant to be bought heading late into Jackson Hole.The consensus is calling for a larger equity market correction, I do not see it given the amount of capital in the system. I change my tone if we trigger key levels to the downside as sellers are lower. If August outflows actually happen, I think tech underperforms cyclical value reopen given high concentration and largest passive impact.Once we see the first outflow in August, this will be the macro trigger for a tactical short. Stay tuned and keep an eye on liquidity.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":823,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":172882146,"gmtCreate":1626951719785,"gmtModify":1633769458573,"author":{"id":"3575190540714273","authorId":"3575190540714273","name":"hminjoon","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/84d00aa235bffbcf955ca0b965aeb40d","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3575190540714273","authorIdStr":"3575190540714273"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"FUD","listText":"FUD","text":"FUD","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/172882146","repostId":"1192458370","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1192458370","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1626938362,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1192458370?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-07-22 15:19","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Entering The Worst Seasonal Period Of The Year, And 10 Other Reasons Why Goldman Braces For An August Correction","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1192458370","media":"zerohedge","summary":"In a stark reversal to its bullish sentiment at the start of the month, when the bank first noted - ","content":"<p>In a stark reversal to its bullish sentiment at the start of the month, when the bank first noted - correctly - that the S&amp;P was entering itsbest 2-week seasonal period of the yearwhich it did between July 1 and 15 when it posted a series of new all time highs (before dumping on the 16th and the 19th)...</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e7dc88222112e4655f492c56509f9d64\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"467\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>... followed by a lengthy rationalization why \"the shorts will have to cover\", Goldman has been turning surprisingly bearish in recent days, and two days after Goldman flow trader John Flood urged Goldman clients \"not to buy this dip\" on Monday (spoiler alert: they did) his trading desk colleague Scott Rubner has published a report previewing why he anticipates a correction in the coming days and continuing through the Jackson Hole symposium at the end of August.</p>\n<p>His note, from which we excerpt below, contains the key arguments behind Goldman's August \"correction\" thesis, including tactical flow of funds, an acceleration of sellers, and feedback from the GS equity trading floor.</p>\n<p>So without further ado, here is Rubner, who lays out his \"<b><i>11 point checklist for an August correction\"</i></b>, starting by noting that \"<i>the #1 question that has hit my inbox/IB in the past 48 hours. What happens to the equity market when there is an outflow and buy demand slows?</i>\" As we read below, the most appropriate answer is \"nothing good.\"</p>\n<blockquote>\n <i>11 point Checklist - Consensus client feedback for a quick equity risk reduction into potentially lower buy demand into Jackson hole. The consensus feedback seems to be calling for a -5% correction, which really gets to -4%. This is a recap of the talking points about to hit your inbox this week. I think this morning’s rally gets faded as buy tickets are completed early in the day.</i> \n <i><b>“Selling rallies” is the new dynamic vs. buying dips.</b></i>\n</blockquote>\n<p><u><b>1. Weak Seasonals</b></u>- Since 1928, we just exited the best two-week period of the year. Friday’s option expiry ended the best seasonal period of the year.<b>August seasonals are not market friendly and trend lower all of August, for the 4th worst two-week seasonal period of the year</b>. Today you are here and Jackson hole is the low point of this chart. Since 1950, there have been 19 times in 72 years that the S&amp;P is up at least &gt;10% through the first half of the year. The median return for August specifically, following a strong 1H is typically down -51bps, before rallying higher.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f41d55d3d45aecb40b0f24e53de17363\" tg-width=\"694\" tg-height=\"499\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p><u><b>2. Largest outflows of the year</b></u>- Investors allocate capital into the market in July and we have seen these record inflows. This is the biggest dynamic in the equity market this year period. Inflows continue at a record pace, annualizing at $1.2 trillion inflows for 2021. 401k inflows predominately flowed in S&amp;P and NDX rather than ROW.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9d67c2e0a1590d44ff3be03c2c86c88e\" tg-width=\"645\" tg-height=\"368\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a58d02645303f22b7e53b58698e11f56\" tg-width=\"508\" tg-height=\"338\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p><u><b>3. Reversal of flows predicted for August</b></u>- Equity inflows are not common in August. Over the last 30 years,<b>August typically sees the largest outflows of the year</b>. -15bps of AUM typically leaves stock market funds in August, on ~22 Trillion, we model -$33B worth of equities for sale.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3308ac184f4fde82ba6c27fbcfbdd86f\" tg-width=\"579\" tg-height=\"340\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/005f51048f49a72597db950884245e8c\" tg-width=\"563\" tg-height=\"351\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p><b><u>4. Outflows cont.</u></b>To be clear, -$33B is not a significant $ figure when adjusted for market cap, however more important is that it’s not an inflow. The index level has remained at ATHs given inflows bid up the largest and biggest market cap index weights. On Monday we saw a large MOC imbalance for sale, this was unusual.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d98939cb6e06e80bc643fdca6801fb0a\" tg-width=\"268\" tg-height=\"474\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p><u><b>5. Passive flows drive largest marketcaps</b></u>- Passive ETFs logged the best full year of inflows on record, in just the first half of the year. (+500b). I watch the tape every day register large MOC imbalances to buy at 3:50pm EST,<b>but what if this dynamic fades.</b>Remember $1 inflow into SPY flows $.23 cents into top 5 companies and $1 inflow into QQQ flows $.41 cents into top 5. If inflows flip to outflows you will no longer see broad index dynamic.<b>Then investors need to decide which sector becomes the funding source for outflows.</b></p>\n<p>Just how important has this been for the S&amp;P 500? Important!</p>\n<ul>\n <li>Global Equity: 1-year: +$600B passive (IN) vs. $0.0B active (OUT) = &gt;$600B.</li>\n <li>Global Equity: 5-year: +$2.30T passive (IN) vs. -$1.90T active (OUT) = &gt;$4.2T</li>\n <li>Global Equity: 10-year: +$4T passive (IN) vs. -$3.0T active (OUT) = &gt;$7.0T</li>\n <li>Current Global Equity Active AUM of $10.099T exceeds &gt; Current Global Equity Passive AUM $7.225 T.</li>\n</ul>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/72aadadcd243a659f1e3cc9fc8f75c1b\" tg-width=\"666\" tg-height=\"375\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5419e040f7d023061743d473ffef59d1\" tg-width=\"666\" tg-height=\"375\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4fff3382eec0b783b12411fb653c6718\" tg-width=\"663\" tg-height=\"377\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p><i>Side note: ETFs represented 36% of the notional executed volumes, last levels since in March/April 2020. (YTD average) = 24%. Did you see the massive volumes in SQQQ Monday (3x short QQQ)?</i></p>\n<p><u><b>6. Single Stock Calls</b></u>- This is set up is very similar to July and August 2020 blow-off top as a result of call option trading. Reminder, S&amp;P sold off -392bps in September 2020 after call option volumes started to fade.</p>\n<ul>\n <li>Option notional has averaged an all-time record of +$550B per day in July. The top 3 traded stocks (AAPL, AMZN, and TSLA) make up $300B of daily volumes. Breadth in both options and stocks is low.</li>\n <li>\"Of 4000 Tradeable Single Stock options, the top 3 names make up 56% of the daily avg notional traded. Adding in the next 7, that ratio jumps to 72%.\"</li>\n <li>\"Said another way the top 10 underliers trade 3x more notional on an average day than the bottom 3990”</li>\n <li>This is an important dynamic to monitor.</li>\n</ul>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/be539bca2d8b556e65d32bbe28f2abb4\" tg-width=\"676\" tg-height=\"441\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p><u><b>7. Call Options cont.</b></u>- Retail has pivoted from trading weekly call options on GME and AMC - only $6B combined notional per day to the stay-at-home playbook. The names with the highest daily option trading are also the largest index weights. In addition to ETF flows, the retail call option buying frenzy also takes the street short weekly gamma on single names. 75% of single stock options traded today have an expiry of two weeks or less.<b>Said another way, given GS YOLO risk sentiment basket has rolled over, does AAPL need to catch down next (or at least not see YOLO flows).</b></p>\n<p>$181bln/day AMZN</p>\n<p>$ 82bln/day TSLA</p>\n<p>$ 36bln/day AAPL</p>\n<p>--------------</p>\n<p><b>TOTAL TSLA/AMZN/AAPL: $299bln/day&nbsp; ------- What happens if call volume in mega cap tech declines?</b></p>\n<ul>\n <li>$ 26bln/day NVDA</li>\n <li>$ 14bln/day GOOGL</li>\n <li>$ 11bln/day FB</li>\n <li>$ 10bln/day MSFT</li>\n <li>$&nbsp; 8bln/day SHOP</li>\n <li>$&nbsp; 8bln/day GOOG</li>\n <li>$&nbsp; 8bln/day NFLX</li>\n <li>$&nbsp; 7bln/day BABA</li>\n</ul>\n<p>--------------</p>\n<p><b>TOTAL GOOG/GOOGL/MSFT/FB/NFLX/NVDA/SHOP/BABA: $90bln/day</b></p>\n<ul>\n <li>$&nbsp; 4bln/day AMC</li>\n <li>$&nbsp; 2bln/day GME</li>\n</ul>\n<p>--------------</p>\n<p><b>TOTAL AMC/GME: $6bln/day&nbsp; ------- No Mo’ Yolo? See chart below.</b></p>\n<p>All other underlyings: $141bln/day</p>\n<p><u><i><b>Total single stock option market:</b></i></u></p>\n<ul>\n <li>$299bln/day TSLA/AMZN/AAPL</li>\n <li>$ 90bln/day GOOG/GOOGL/MSFT/FB/NFLX/NVDA/SHOP/BABA</li>\n <li>$&nbsp; 6bln/day AMC/GME</li>\n <li>$141bln/day All other underlyings</li>\n</ul>\n<p>--------------------</p>\n<p><b>$537bln/day Total</b></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1f5678ad5b66dd918c2cbb51263c9df0\" tg-width=\"650\" tg-height=\"450\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p><b><u>8. Option Gamma Unwinds</u></b>- Option Expiry just rolled off -85% of the market long gamma. The market now has the ability to move more freely and trade less long gamma. Everyday last week the market would rally into the bell as dealers re-hedge their gamma (buying the dips). I get worried about summer end-of-day liquidity without gamma hedging and passive demand. I think there will be also a “institutional” demand to buy hedges into Jackson Hole fulling removing the long gamma taking the street short to hedge downside. We have seen more puts and put spreads on the desk this week than any week of 2021.</p>\n<ul>\n <li>Wednesday (7/14) SPX gamma = +$4,625B</li>\n <li>Thursday (7/15) SPX gamma = +$3,620B</li>\n <li>Friday (7/16) SPX gamma = +$3,136B</li>\n <li>Monday (7/19) SPX gamma = +$2,698B</li>\n <li>Tuesday (7/20) SPX Gamma = +$713B.</li>\n</ul>\n<p><b>the Long S&amp;P 500 gamma has been reduced by -85% in the past 5 days taking dealers less long gamma.</b>This dynamic changes market behavior and we are seeing little demand to systematically overwrite from here even despite the move higher in vols. This is new.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b78215d53696f99f4c746f296ae2d225\" tg-width=\"797\" tg-height=\"598\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p><u><b>9. Systematic</b></u>- Non-economic is already near the max exposure and have little scope to add further from here. No threshold levels have triggered so far, but it is important to note the lack of ability to add from here, which asymmetrically skews the downside.</p>\n<ul>\n <li><b>CTA</b>- 90% percentile on 1-year rank, 84% percentile on 3-yr rank.</li>\n <li><b>GS models</b>-$9B of equities for sale over the next week. CTA’s are sellers in an up tape, down tape, down big tape. That’s not common. Check out big asymmetry to the downside over the next 1 month.</li>\n <li><b>GS short term CTA ES1 Flip Level</b>= $4,257.90. We tripped this circuit breaker yesterday, but are higher this am. I expect GS sell expectations to increase.</li>\n</ul>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3efe5f0b54f671b5c1b366ff5514cf5c\" tg-width=\"751\" tg-height=\"323\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/232a48ec7525cb179f6cd8bc285b7e55\" tg-width=\"499\" tg-height=\"300\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p><b>b) Vol Control - 86% percentile on 1-year rank, 75% percentile on 3-yr rank. FYI. SPX Put/Call Ratio hit a fresh 1 year high yesterday.</b></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a5553785fd8a0a66e717f5579ba6ee91\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"300\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p><b>c) Risk Parity - 100% percentile on 1-year rank, 53% percentile on 3-yr rank.</b></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9be4d94aa1cd38dad335c1424d3be626\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"300\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p><b>d) Total Systematic - 92% percentile on 1-year rank, 80% percentile on 3-yr rank. This is important. This non-emotional demand is at the max and will be sellers lower.</b></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4068fa4e9a8c6c06f77627c9ee6e07b8\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"300\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p><u><b>10. Liquidity</b></u>- The unofficial Rubner out of office outlook (OOO) reply meter. My note last week has week had the largest out of office kickbacks to the tune of “see you in a few weeks” or “gone fishing”. The upcoming calendar into Jackson Hole is important.</p>\n<ol>\n <li>next few weeks, extended vacation schedule first time in 12 months, etc, moved forward because Jackson hole.</li>\n <li>Jackson Hole, August 26 (Thursday) - August 28 (Saturday) – Friday is the likely the key calendar, but potentially Saturday will be important. This moves hedges to the following week.</li>\n <li>Labor Day, September 6 (Monday exchange holiday) - late this year</li>\n <li>approximate First day of Children’s school, September 7 (Tuesday)</li>\n <li>Liquidity = August Summer – ZZZZ. Top book liquidity declined SUBSTANTIALLY into the sell off yesterday.</li>\n</ol>\n<p>*** despite being ranked 10 in the checklist. This is really chart #1. Liquidity dried up substantially yesterday on the screens. This chart peaked at $36M last Monday to $10.810M yesterday. This is a drop of $25M $ or ~70% in on screws liquidity in 1 week.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/60db9087f28d7496be38eafbc0fa755e\" tg-width=\"650\" tg-height=\"450\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p><u><b>11. Buybacks</b></u>: Buybacks are here, but so is equity issuance, which neutralizes the buyback impulse. As corporates meet corporates. From Sales and trading colleague, John Flood in his most recent trading note.</p>\n<p><i>“It has been a paper party and this paper is getting harder to place. Last week we priced 11 registered deals in the U.S. ($3b notional) and this week already working on another 18 ($10b). This is especially noteworthy while in the depths of July.“</i></p>\n<ul>\n <li>Last week there was $6.2 billion in equity issuance, compared with the July weekly average of $3.4 billion since 2000.</li>\n <li>Last week there were 27 equity deals brought to market, compared with the July average of 15 deals per week since 2000.</li>\n</ul>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b680be938f506ba528c382fdb7d805ba\" tg-width=\"897\" tg-height=\"606\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p><i><b>Bottom Line:</b></i><i>Keep Tactical Flow of Funds Checklist on your radar for August. The technical market structure dynamics changes substantially during August</i><i><b>. I think there will be a dip (-5%) and it is meant to be bought heading late into Jackson Hole.</b></i><i>The consensus is calling for a larger equity market correction, I do not see it given the amount of capital in the system. I change my tone if we trigger key levels to the downside as sellers are lower. If August outflows actually happen, I think tech underperforms cyclical value reopen given high concentration and largest passive impact.</i><i><b>Once we see the first outflow in August, this will be the macro trigger for a tactical short</b></i><i>. Stay tuned and keep an eye on liquidity.</i></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Entering The Worst Seasonal Period Of The Year, And 10 Other Reasons Why Goldman Braces For An August Correction</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nEntering The Worst Seasonal Period Of The Year, And 10 Other Reasons Why Goldman Braces For An August Correction\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-07-22 15:19 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/entering-worst-seasonal-period-year-and-10-other-reasons-why-goldman-braces-august><strong>zerohedge</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>In a stark reversal to its bullish sentiment at the start of the month, when the bank first noted - correctly - that the S&P was entering itsbest 2-week seasonal period of the yearwhich it did between...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/entering-worst-seasonal-period-year-and-10-other-reasons-why-goldman-braces-august\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"SPY":"标普500ETF",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/entering-worst-seasonal-period-year-and-10-other-reasons-why-goldman-braces-august","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1192458370","content_text":"In a stark reversal to its bullish sentiment at the start of the month, when the bank first noted - correctly - that the S&P was entering itsbest 2-week seasonal period of the yearwhich it did between July 1 and 15 when it posted a series of new all time highs (before dumping on the 16th and the 19th)...\n\n... followed by a lengthy rationalization why \"the shorts will have to cover\", Goldman has been turning surprisingly bearish in recent days, and two days after Goldman flow trader John Flood urged Goldman clients \"not to buy this dip\" on Monday (spoiler alert: they did) his trading desk colleague Scott Rubner has published a report previewing why he anticipates a correction in the coming days and continuing through the Jackson Hole symposium at the end of August.\nHis note, from which we excerpt below, contains the key arguments behind Goldman's August \"correction\" thesis, including tactical flow of funds, an acceleration of sellers, and feedback from the GS equity trading floor.\nSo without further ado, here is Rubner, who lays out his \"11 point checklist for an August correction\", starting by noting that \"the #1 question that has hit my inbox/IB in the past 48 hours. What happens to the equity market when there is an outflow and buy demand slows?\" As we read below, the most appropriate answer is \"nothing good.\"\n\n11 point Checklist - Consensus client feedback for a quick equity risk reduction into potentially lower buy demand into Jackson hole. The consensus feedback seems to be calling for a -5% correction, which really gets to -4%. This is a recap of the talking points about to hit your inbox this week. I think this morning’s rally gets faded as buy tickets are completed early in the day.\n“Selling rallies” is the new dynamic vs. buying dips.\n\n1. Weak Seasonals- Since 1928, we just exited the best two-week period of the year. Friday’s option expiry ended the best seasonal period of the year.August seasonals are not market friendly and trend lower all of August, for the 4th worst two-week seasonal period of the year. Today you are here and Jackson hole is the low point of this chart. Since 1950, there have been 19 times in 72 years that the S&P is up at least >10% through the first half of the year. The median return for August specifically, following a strong 1H is typically down -51bps, before rallying higher.\n\n2. Largest outflows of the year- Investors allocate capital into the market in July and we have seen these record inflows. This is the biggest dynamic in the equity market this year period. Inflows continue at a record pace, annualizing at $1.2 trillion inflows for 2021. 401k inflows predominately flowed in S&P and NDX rather than ROW.\n\n3. Reversal of flows predicted for August- Equity inflows are not common in August. Over the last 30 years,August typically sees the largest outflows of the year. -15bps of AUM typically leaves stock market funds in August, on ~22 Trillion, we model -$33B worth of equities for sale.\n\n4. Outflows cont.To be clear, -$33B is not a significant $ figure when adjusted for market cap, however more important is that it’s not an inflow. The index level has remained at ATHs given inflows bid up the largest and biggest market cap index weights. On Monday we saw a large MOC imbalance for sale, this was unusual.\n\n5. Passive flows drive largest marketcaps- Passive ETFs logged the best full year of inflows on record, in just the first half of the year. (+500b). I watch the tape every day register large MOC imbalances to buy at 3:50pm EST,but what if this dynamic fades.Remember $1 inflow into SPY flows $.23 cents into top 5 companies and $1 inflow into QQQ flows $.41 cents into top 5. If inflows flip to outflows you will no longer see broad index dynamic.Then investors need to decide which sector becomes the funding source for outflows.\nJust how important has this been for the S&P 500? Important!\n\nGlobal Equity: 1-year: +$600B passive (IN) vs. $0.0B active (OUT) = >$600B.\nGlobal Equity: 5-year: +$2.30T passive (IN) vs. -$1.90T active (OUT) = >$4.2T\nGlobal Equity: 10-year: +$4T passive (IN) vs. -$3.0T active (OUT) = >$7.0T\nCurrent Global Equity Active AUM of $10.099T exceeds > Current Global Equity Passive AUM $7.225 T.\n\n\nSide note: ETFs represented 36% of the notional executed volumes, last levels since in March/April 2020. (YTD average) = 24%. Did you see the massive volumes in SQQQ Monday (3x short QQQ)?\n6. Single Stock Calls- This is set up is very similar to July and August 2020 blow-off top as a result of call option trading. Reminder, S&P sold off -392bps in September 2020 after call option volumes started to fade.\n\nOption notional has averaged an all-time record of +$550B per day in July. The top 3 traded stocks (AAPL, AMZN, and TSLA) make up $300B of daily volumes. Breadth in both options and stocks is low.\n\"Of 4000 Tradeable Single Stock options, the top 3 names make up 56% of the daily avg notional traded. Adding in the next 7, that ratio jumps to 72%.\"\n\"Said another way the top 10 underliers trade 3x more notional on an average day than the bottom 3990”\nThis is an important dynamic to monitor.\n\n\n7. Call Options cont.- Retail has pivoted from trading weekly call options on GME and AMC - only $6B combined notional per day to the stay-at-home playbook. The names with the highest daily option trading are also the largest index weights. In addition to ETF flows, the retail call option buying frenzy also takes the street short weekly gamma on single names. 75% of single stock options traded today have an expiry of two weeks or less.Said another way, given GS YOLO risk sentiment basket has rolled over, does AAPL need to catch down next (or at least not see YOLO flows).\n$181bln/day AMZN\n$ 82bln/day TSLA\n$ 36bln/day AAPL\n--------------\nTOTAL TSLA/AMZN/AAPL: $299bln/day  ------- What happens if call volume in mega cap tech declines?\n\n$ 26bln/day NVDA\n$ 14bln/day GOOGL\n$ 11bln/day FB\n$ 10bln/day MSFT\n$  8bln/day SHOP\n$  8bln/day GOOG\n$  8bln/day NFLX\n$  7bln/day BABA\n\n--------------\nTOTAL GOOG/GOOGL/MSFT/FB/NFLX/NVDA/SHOP/BABA: $90bln/day\n\n$  4bln/day AMC\n$  2bln/day GME\n\n--------------\nTOTAL AMC/GME: $6bln/day  ------- No Mo’ Yolo? See chart below.\nAll other underlyings: $141bln/day\nTotal single stock option market:\n\n$299bln/day TSLA/AMZN/AAPL\n$ 90bln/day GOOG/GOOGL/MSFT/FB/NFLX/NVDA/SHOP/BABA\n$  6bln/day AMC/GME\n$141bln/day All other underlyings\n\n--------------------\n$537bln/day Total\n\n8. Option Gamma Unwinds- Option Expiry just rolled off -85% of the market long gamma. The market now has the ability to move more freely and trade less long gamma. Everyday last week the market would rally into the bell as dealers re-hedge their gamma (buying the dips). I get worried about summer end-of-day liquidity without gamma hedging and passive demand. I think there will be also a “institutional” demand to buy hedges into Jackson Hole fulling removing the long gamma taking the street short to hedge downside. We have seen more puts and put spreads on the desk this week than any week of 2021.\n\nWednesday (7/14) SPX gamma = +$4,625B\nThursday (7/15) SPX gamma = +$3,620B\nFriday (7/16) SPX gamma = +$3,136B\nMonday (7/19) SPX gamma = +$2,698B\nTuesday (7/20) SPX Gamma = +$713B.\n\nthe Long S&P 500 gamma has been reduced by -85% in the past 5 days taking dealers less long gamma.This dynamic changes market behavior and we are seeing little demand to systematically overwrite from here even despite the move higher in vols. This is new.\n\n9. Systematic- Non-economic is already near the max exposure and have little scope to add further from here. No threshold levels have triggered so far, but it is important to note the lack of ability to add from here, which asymmetrically skews the downside.\n\nCTA- 90% percentile on 1-year rank, 84% percentile on 3-yr rank.\nGS models-$9B of equities for sale over the next week. CTA’s are sellers in an up tape, down tape, down big tape. That’s not common. Check out big asymmetry to the downside over the next 1 month.\nGS short term CTA ES1 Flip Level= $4,257.90. We tripped this circuit breaker yesterday, but are higher this am. I expect GS sell expectations to increase.\n\n\nb) Vol Control - 86% percentile on 1-year rank, 75% percentile on 3-yr rank. FYI. SPX Put/Call Ratio hit a fresh 1 year high yesterday.\n\nc) Risk Parity - 100% percentile on 1-year rank, 53% percentile on 3-yr rank.\n\nd) Total Systematic - 92% percentile on 1-year rank, 80% percentile on 3-yr rank. This is important. This non-emotional demand is at the max and will be sellers lower.\n\n10. Liquidity- The unofficial Rubner out of office outlook (OOO) reply meter. My note last week has week had the largest out of office kickbacks to the tune of “see you in a few weeks” or “gone fishing”. The upcoming calendar into Jackson Hole is important.\n\nnext few weeks, extended vacation schedule first time in 12 months, etc, moved forward because Jackson hole.\nJackson Hole, August 26 (Thursday) - August 28 (Saturday) – Friday is the likely the key calendar, but potentially Saturday will be important. This moves hedges to the following week.\nLabor Day, September 6 (Monday exchange holiday) - late this year\napproximate First day of Children’s school, September 7 (Tuesday)\nLiquidity = August Summer – ZZZZ. Top book liquidity declined SUBSTANTIALLY into the sell off yesterday.\n\n*** despite being ranked 10 in the checklist. This is really chart #1. Liquidity dried up substantially yesterday on the screens. This chart peaked at $36M last Monday to $10.810M yesterday. This is a drop of $25M $ or ~70% in on screws liquidity in 1 week.\n\n11. Buybacks: Buybacks are here, but so is equity issuance, which neutralizes the buyback impulse. As corporates meet corporates. From Sales and trading colleague, John Flood in his most recent trading note.\n“It has been a paper party and this paper is getting harder to place. Last week we priced 11 registered deals in the U.S. ($3b notional) and this week already working on another 18 ($10b). This is especially noteworthy while in the depths of July.“\n\nLast week there was $6.2 billion in equity issuance, compared with the July weekly average of $3.4 billion since 2000.\nLast week there were 27 equity deals brought to market, compared with the July average of 15 deals per week since 2000.\n\n\nBottom Line:Keep Tactical Flow of Funds Checklist on your radar for August. The technical market structure dynamics changes substantially during August. I think there will be a dip (-5%) and it is meant to be bought heading late into Jackson Hole.The consensus is calling for a larger equity market correction, I do not see it given the amount of capital in the system. I change my tone if we trigger key levels to the downside as sellers are lower. If August outflows actually happen, I think tech underperforms cyclical value reopen given high concentration and largest passive impact.Once we see the first outflow in August, this will be the macro trigger for a tactical short. Stay tuned and keep an eye on liquidity.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":265,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":150263508,"gmtCreate":1624911556704,"gmtModify":1633947203108,"author":{"id":"3575190540714273","authorId":"3575190540714273","name":"hminjoon","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/84d00aa235bffbcf955ca0b965aeb40d","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3575190540714273","authorIdStr":"3575190540714273"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Sick..&nbsp;","listText":"Sick..&nbsp;","text":"Sick..","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/150263508","repostId":"1182036516","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1182036516","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Providing stock market headlines, business news, financials and earnings ","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Tiger Newspress","id":"1079075236","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1624892087,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1182036516?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-28 22:54","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Nvidia shares rose more than 5% to a new high","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1182036516","media":"Tiger Newspress","summary":"Nvidia shares rose more than 5% to a new high on Report Three Key Chip Makers Endorse Bid for Arm.\n\n","content":"<p>Nvidia shares rose more than 5% to a new high on Report Three Key Chip Makers Endorse Bid for Arm.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/05201fd147f1f824ea42bb1d0bcac789\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\"></p>\n<p>Three major chip makers have reportedly stepped up to say they support&nbsp;Nvidia‘s&nbsp;proposed acquisition of the U.K.-based chip-design house Arm.</p>\n<p>Last September, Nvidia (ticker: NVDA) announced a deal to acquire Arm from&nbsp;SoftBank Group(SFTBY) for $40 billion in cash and stock in a transaction that would make SoftBank the largest investor in Nvidia. The deal has attracted considerable scrutiny from both regulators and other chip companies, given Arm’s position as a leading provider of microprocessor designs to the chip industry. Almost all smartphones use processors based on Arm designs.</p>\n<p>But the U.K.’s&nbsp;<i>Sunday Times</i>&nbsp;over the weekend&nbsp;reported&nbsp;that three important Arm customers—Broadcom(AVGO), Marvell (MRVL), and Taiwan-based&nbsp;MediaTek(2454.TW)—have endorsed the transaction. None of the companies involved could immediately be reached for comment.</p>\n<p>Citi analyst Atif Malk wrote in a research note Sunday that the report is a big step forward for the proposed deal. He thinks the U.K. likely will approve the combination, given Nvidia’s public commitment to investing more in Arm’s U.K. operations. But he still sees considerable hurdles, in particular in China.</p>\n<p>“With the U.S. continuing to be aggressive against China winning in a tech race, we see China less likely to support a deal that would see them potentially losing access to Arm,” he wrote in a research note. “If Nvidia finds a way to keep the Arm China subsidiary as a separate entity without access to any [graphics processor or artificial intelligence] IP then there is a path to get both U.S. and China regulatory approval.”</p>\n<p>Malik says he says the path to approval remains narrow. He now sees a 30% chance of approval, up from a previous estimate of 10%.</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Nvidia shares rose more than 5% to a new high</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nNvidia shares rose more than 5% to a new high\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1079075236\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Tiger Newspress </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2021-06-28 22:54</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Nvidia shares rose more than 5% to a new high on Report Three Key Chip Makers Endorse Bid for Arm.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/05201fd147f1f824ea42bb1d0bcac789\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\"></p>\n<p>Three major chip makers have reportedly stepped up to say they support&nbsp;Nvidia‘s&nbsp;proposed acquisition of the U.K.-based chip-design house Arm.</p>\n<p>Last September, Nvidia (ticker: NVDA) announced a deal to acquire Arm from&nbsp;SoftBank Group(SFTBY) for $40 billion in cash and stock in a transaction that would make SoftBank the largest investor in Nvidia. The deal has attracted considerable scrutiny from both regulators and other chip companies, given Arm’s position as a leading provider of microprocessor designs to the chip industry. Almost all smartphones use processors based on Arm designs.</p>\n<p>But the U.K.’s&nbsp;<i>Sunday Times</i>&nbsp;over the weekend&nbsp;reported&nbsp;that three important Arm customers—Broadcom(AVGO), Marvell (MRVL), and Taiwan-based&nbsp;MediaTek(2454.TW)—have endorsed the transaction. None of the companies involved could immediately be reached for comment.</p>\n<p>Citi analyst Atif Malk wrote in a research note Sunday that the report is a big step forward for the proposed deal. He thinks the U.K. likely will approve the combination, given Nvidia’s public commitment to investing more in Arm’s U.K. operations. But he still sees considerable hurdles, in particular in China.</p>\n<p>“With the U.S. continuing to be aggressive against China winning in a tech race, we see China less likely to support a deal that would see them potentially losing access to Arm,” he wrote in a research note. “If Nvidia finds a way to keep the Arm China subsidiary as a separate entity without access to any [graphics processor or artificial intelligence] IP then there is a path to get both U.S. and China regulatory approval.”</p>\n<p>Malik says he says the path to approval remains narrow. He now sees a 30% chance of approval, up from a previous estimate of 10%.</p>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"NVDA":"英伟达"},"is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1182036516","content_text":"Nvidia shares rose more than 5% to a new high on Report Three Key Chip Makers Endorse Bid for Arm.\n\nThree major chip makers have reportedly stepped up to say they support Nvidia‘s proposed acquisition of the U.K.-based chip-design house Arm.\nLast September, Nvidia (ticker: NVDA) announced a deal to acquire Arm from SoftBank Group(SFTBY) for $40 billion in cash and stock in a transaction that would make SoftBank the largest investor in Nvidia. The deal has attracted considerable scrutiny from both regulators and other chip companies, given Arm’s position as a leading provider of microprocessor designs to the chip industry. Almost all smartphones use processors based on Arm designs.\nBut the U.K.’s Sunday Times over the weekend reported that three important Arm customers—Broadcom(AVGO), Marvell (MRVL), and Taiwan-based MediaTek(2454.TW)—have endorsed the transaction. None of the companies involved could immediately be reached for comment.\nCiti analyst Atif Malk wrote in a research note Sunday that the report is a big step forward for the proposed deal. He thinks the U.K. likely will approve the combination, given Nvidia’s public commitment to investing more in Arm’s U.K. operations. But he still sees considerable hurdles, in particular in China.\n“With the U.S. continuing to be aggressive against China winning in a tech race, we see China less likely to support a deal that would see them potentially losing access to Arm,” he wrote in a research note. “If Nvidia finds a way to keep the Arm China subsidiary as a separate entity without access to any [graphics processor or artificial intelligence] IP then there is a path to get both U.S. and China regulatory approval.”\nMalik says he says the path to approval remains narrow. He now sees a 30% chance of approval, up from a previous estimate of 10%.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":371,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":189173871,"gmtCreate":1623249574793,"gmtModify":1634035346018,"author":{"id":"3575190540714273","authorId":"3575190540714273","name":"hminjoon","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/84d00aa235bffbcf955ca0b965aeb40d","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3575190540714273","authorIdStr":"3575190540714273"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Good stuff","listText":"Good stuff","text":"Good stuff","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/83e73b3256210ae306656de2ce953d6e","width":"1080","height":"3056"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/189173871","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":442,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}