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Eskimo1989
2021-02-16
利好电车？
抱歉，原内容已删除
Eskimo1989
2021-02-14
所以你说的到底是真的还是假的？？？
抱歉，原内容已删除
去老虎APP查看更多动态
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13:32","market":"fut","language":"zh","title":"以史为鉴，油价突破60美元和对股市的影响","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2111000185","media":"川阅全球宏观","summary":"此轮油价的上涨如何演绎？对股票市场有何影响？","content":"<p>作者：<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/601555\">东吴证券</a>分析师 陶川</p><p>春节期间布油和美油均突破60美元关口，布油当前达到63.6美元/桶，为2020年1月以来新高。此轮油价的上涨如何演绎？对股票市场有何影响？</p><p><b>供需趋紧、库存回落是此轮原油价上行的主导因素。</b>随着全球经济活动复苏，原油供需均在2020年中触底反弹。2020年9月前由于供给仍好于需求，油价回升幅度有限（图1）；2020年9月后需求恢复超过供给、原油库存回落，油价进入上行通道。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/57c35ffd4d635351f031a841d59752b3\" tg-width=\"818\" tg-height=\"1010\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>春节后油价会继续上涨吗？</p><p><b>是的，我们预计上半年布伦特油价有望突破70美元。</b></p><p>从需求端来看：疫苗推广叠加美国财政刺激加码，原油需求稳步回升，尤其是在美国国会已经通过拜登政府的预算决议后，新一轮财政刺激（约为1.5万亿美元）有望于近期在美国实施。</p><p>从供给端来看：1）欧佩克+坚定减产立场，1月原油减产执行率为103%，且最大石油出口国沙特承诺在2月和3月额外减产100万桶/日；2）原油期货市场已出现贴水迹象，即原油现货价格高于期货，而历史上贴水的出现均伴随库存的明显下降（图2），这是因为此时原油厂商囤积库存不如当前变卖划算，从而加大去库存力度，导致原油供需进一步收紧。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8bf40b5dc24118d86d0d26cb16b6dc07\" tg-width=\"1017\" tg-height=\"906\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>从历史来看，油价一旦开启涨势，涨幅往往超出市场预期。</p><p>原油作为风险资产本身波动性较大，市场一旦出现油价利好信号，其上涨往往容易超出预期。复盘近年来的油价，2009-2011年、2017-2018年布伦特油价在突破60美元/桶后均出现大幅上涨，原因集中在市场流动性和原油供给上（图3）。具体而言：</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/56ee3fdc36a367214dd6f89dbcad52e9\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"626\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>（1）2009-2011年源于欧佩克严格执行减产协议、美国经济复苏、中国4万亿刺激带动原油需求，布伦特油价在2009年5月突破60美元/桶，随后两年又翻了一倍，最高上涨至127美元/桶。</p><p>（2）2018-2019年欧佩克减产协议执行持续超预期，布伦特油价在2017年10月突破60美元/桶，而后一年继续上涨，同期叠加特朗普政府单方面强行退出伊朗核协议，在2018年10月升至86美元/桶。</p><p>油价上涨如何影响股市？</p><p><b>对于美股而言，一方面</b>，随着页岩油的发展，美国正由原油的净进口国转变为净出口国，近年来油价上涨对投资的促进抵消了对消费的抑制，因此对美国经济产生净的正向拉动（表1）；</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/53e5111dafa2956777a6e3369265525a\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"599\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>另一方面，</b>油价的上涨也反映出美国国内需求的持续扩张，后者也体现在上市公司的盈利增长上。因此，在此前布伦特油价突破60美元/桶后，美股亦继续上涨，在走势上与油价表现为同涨同跌（图4）。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/31498b08f289eadf5db4485fdc744074\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"619\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>对于A股而言，由于中国是原油的净进口国，故油价持续上涨对于整个经济运行成本是提升的。</b>我们注意到2017年以来国际油价在走势上与上证综指具有一定的负相关性，且前者在走势上领先后者约90天，<b>两者的相关系数达到了-0.74！</b>即油价在持续上涨一个季度后往往会出现股市的回调（图5）。其背后的原因，除了油价上涨可能侵蚀到部分中下游上市公司的盈利外，更有市场对油价持续上涨引发通胀风险和货币政策收紧的担忧。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9f1ac0a4cbadc1666b8f08f86de188f8\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"619\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>风险提示：</b>全球经济复苏不及预期，原油减产执行率不及预期</p>","source":"lsy1582083733592","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta 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float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n以史为鉴，油价突破60美元和对股市的影响\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-02-16 13:32 北京时间 <a href=http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/411987.html><strong>川阅全球宏观</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>作者：东吴证券分析师 陶川春节期间布油和美油均突破60美元关口，布油当前达到63.6美元/桶，为2020年1月以来新高。此轮油价的上涨如何演绎？对股票市场有何影响？供需趋紧、库存回落是此轮原油价上行的主导因素。随着全球经济活动复苏，原油供需均在2020年中触底反弹。2020年9月前由于供给仍好于需求，油价回升幅度有限（图1）；2020年9月后需求恢复超过供给、原油库存回落，油价进入上行通道。春节后...</p>\n\n<a href=\"http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/411987.html\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/212c960aaeece26511e050463eddc3b0","relate_stocks":{"USO":"美国原油ETF"},"source_url":"http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/411987.html","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2111000185","content_text":"作者：东吴证券分析师 陶川春节期间布油和美油均突破60美元关口，布油当前达到63.6美元/桶，为2020年1月以来新高。此轮油价的上涨如何演绎？对股票市场有何影响？供需趋紧、库存回落是此轮原油价上行的主导因素。随着全球经济活动复苏，原油供需均在2020年中触底反弹。2020年9月前由于供给仍好于需求，油价回升幅度有限（图1）；2020年9月后需求恢复超过供给、原油库存回落，油价进入上行通道。春节后油价会继续上涨吗？是的，我们预计上半年布伦特油价有望突破70美元。从需求端来看：疫苗推广叠加美国财政刺激加码，原油需求稳步回升，尤其是在美国国会已经通过拜登政府的预算决议后，新一轮财政刺激（约为1.5万亿美元）有望于近期在美国实施。从供给端来看：1）欧佩克+坚定减产立场，1月原油减产执行率为103%，且最大石油出口国沙特承诺在2月和3月额外减产100万桶/日；2）原油期货市场已出现贴水迹象，即原油现货价格高于期货，而历史上贴水的出现均伴随库存的明显下降（图2），这是因为此时原油厂商囤积库存不如当前变卖划算，从而加大去库存力度，导致原油供需进一步收紧。从历史来看，油价一旦开启涨势，涨幅往往超出市场预期。原油作为风险资产本身波动性较大，市场一旦出现油价利好信号，其上涨往往容易超出预期。复盘近年来的油价，2009-2011年、2017-2018年布伦特油价在突破60美元/桶后均出现大幅上涨，原因集中在市场流动性和原油供给上（图3）。具体而言：（1）2009-2011年源于欧佩克严格执行减产协议、美国经济复苏、中国4万亿刺激带动原油需求，布伦特油价在2009年5月突破60美元/桶，随后两年又翻了一倍，最高上涨至127美元/桶。（2）2018-2019年欧佩克减产协议执行持续超预期，布伦特油价在2017年10月突破60美元/桶，而后一年继续上涨，同期叠加特朗普政府单方面强行退出伊朗核协议，在2018年10月升至86美元/桶。油价上涨如何影响股市？对于美股而言，一方面，随着页岩油的发展，美国正由原油的净进口国转变为净出口国，近年来油价上涨对投资的促进抵消了对消费的抑制，因此对美国经济产生净的正向拉动（表1）；另一方面，油价的上涨也反映出美国国内需求的持续扩张，后者也体现在上市公司的盈利增长上。因此，在此前布伦特油价突破60美元/桶后，美股亦继续上涨，在走势上与油价表现为同涨同跌（图4）。对于A股而言，由于中国是原油的净进口国，故油价持续上涨对于整个经济运行成本是提升的。我们注意到2017年以来国际油价在走势上与上证综指具有一定的负相关性，且前者在走势上领先后者约90天，两者的相关系数达到了-0.74！即油价在持续上涨一个季度后往往会出现股市的回调（图5）。其背后的原因，除了油价上涨可能侵蚀到部分中下游上市公司的盈利外，更有市场对油价持续上涨引发通胀风险和货币政策收紧的担忧。风险提示：全球经济复苏不及预期，原油减产执行率不及预期","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1236,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":382058205,"gmtCreate":1613314668407,"gmtModify":1613353107548,"author":{"id":"3574914618440647","authorId":"3574914618440647","authorIdStr":"3574914618440647","name":"Eskimo1989","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cc948b966f0e268df46288955c0bacc3","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"所以你说的到底是真的还是假的？？？","listText":"所以你说的到底是真的还是假的？？？","text":"所以你说的到底是真的还是假的？？？","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/382058205","repostId":"2111008373","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":745,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}
