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Caffiend
2021-10-14
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Caffiend
2021-10-08
apple will come out with new products and services
Apple Stock Will Struggle From Here, Analyst Cautions. Here’s Why.
Caffiend
2021-06-10
moon time
This robot-run fund thinks GameStop stock will soar in June, and predicts a fall for Tesla and Amazon
Caffiend
2021-04-14
yes
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will come out with new products and services","listText":"apple will come out with new products and services","text":"apple will come out with new products and services","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/821130887","repostId":"1192810083","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1192810083","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1633656904,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1192810083?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-10-08 09:35","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Apple Stock Will Struggle From Here, Analyst Cautions. Here’s Why.","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1192810083","media":"Barrons","summary":"Trigger warning for Apple bulls: I’m about to address the case for caution on the stock.\nBernstein a","content":"<p>Trigger warning for Apple bulls: I’m about to address the case for caution on the stock.</p>\n<p>Bernstein analyst Toni Sacconaghi lays out the case in a research note on Thursday. He focus on the most basic question for Apple (ticker:AAPL) shares: What can drive the stock higher from here?</p>\n<p>Sacconaghi points out that Apple has re-rated over the last two years from a below-market multiple to one trading at a 24% premium to the market. Apple traded at a discount to the market from 2013 to 2019, he notes. Apple now trades at a forward P/E of 26 times, he writes, “elevated” relative to historic norms.</p>\n<p>The analyst starts by reviewing the bull case for the stock. He notes that Apple fans say the company has a leverageable consumer brand that will allow Apple to both increase prices and enter new categories, like cars and artificial reality headsets.</p>\n<p>Apple bulls see the installed base of 1.65 billion devices offering ample room to deliver new services, including advertising, and possibly even social media. Not least, Sacconaghi writes, bulls see potential for higher gross margins as services become a higher percentage of the company’s revenue mix, creating the potential for consistent double-digit per-share earnings growth.</p>\n<p>But Sacconaghi counters that he sees limited room for earnings growth in the September 2022 fiscal year given a likely pullback in growth across the product line. His current model projects revenue for FY 2022 declining slightly from the current year.</p>\n<p>In his view, the most likely source of further gains in Apple shares in the near term would have to come from further multiple expansion. He thinks that’s possible if the iPhone 13 cycle is stronger than expected, Apple sets an aggressive new goal on services revenue growth or begins offering its products as a service. (But he’s not betting on it.)</p>\n<p>Sacconaghi also asserts that Apple’s current valuation is “relatively full,” trading inline to higher than other tech megacaps, in particular Facebook (FB) and Alphabet (GOOGL), which as he notes have both better expected growth rates and higher margins.</p>\n<p>“Looked at another way, close to 100% of revenue from Alphabet and Facebook have financial characteristics of Apple’s attractive services business,” which is about 20% of the company’s overall revenue, but Apple trades at a similar multiple to Alphabet and a premium to Facebook.</p>\n<p>Sacconaghi thinks long-term Apple is likely to be a low-to-mid single digit grower. His view is that 70% of the revenue base – iPhone, Mac and iPad – are unlikely to show any long-term growth. He sees new products growth in the 15% range, and projects 15% growth for the services business, generating a blended long-term growth rate in the 4% to 5% range. (Note that as recently as FY 2019, Apple reported a slight revenue decline.)</p>\n<p>Concludes Sacconaghi: Given Apple’s relatively high valuation and the probability that tha the company will struggle to grow in fiscal 2022, the current risk-reward on the stock is “neutral to slightly negative.”</p>\n<p>Amid a broad market rally, Apple shares rose 0.9%, to $143.29.</p>","source":"lsy1601382232898","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Apple Stock Will Struggle From Here, Analyst Cautions. Here’s Why.</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nApple Stock Will Struggle From Here, Analyst Cautions. Here’s Why.\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-10-08 09:35 GMT+8 <a href=https://www.barrons.com/articles/apple-stock-price-rally-caution-51633620422?mod=hp_LATEST><strong>Barrons</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Trigger warning for Apple bulls: I’m about to address the case for caution on the stock.\nBernstein analyst Toni Sacconaghi lays out the case in a research note on Thursday. He focus on the most basic ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.barrons.com/articles/apple-stock-price-rally-caution-51633620422?mod=hp_LATEST\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AAPL":"苹果"},"source_url":"https://www.barrons.com/articles/apple-stock-price-rally-caution-51633620422?mod=hp_LATEST","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1192810083","content_text":"Trigger warning for Apple bulls: I’m about to address the case for caution on the stock.\nBernstein analyst Toni Sacconaghi lays out the case in a research note on Thursday. He focus on the most basic question for Apple (ticker:AAPL) shares: What can drive the stock higher from here?\nSacconaghi points out that Apple has re-rated over the last two years from a below-market multiple to one trading at a 24% premium to the market. Apple traded at a discount to the market from 2013 to 2019, he notes. Apple now trades at a forward P/E of 26 times, he writes, “elevated” relative to historic norms.\nThe analyst starts by reviewing the bull case for the stock. He notes that Apple fans say the company has a leverageable consumer brand that will allow Apple to both increase prices and enter new categories, like cars and artificial reality headsets.\nApple bulls see the installed base of 1.65 billion devices offering ample room to deliver new services, including advertising, and possibly even social media. Not least, Sacconaghi writes, bulls see potential for higher gross margins as services become a higher percentage of the company’s revenue mix, creating the potential for consistent double-digit per-share earnings growth.\nBut Sacconaghi counters that he sees limited room for earnings growth in the September 2022 fiscal year given a likely pullback in growth across the product line. His current model projects revenue for FY 2022 declining slightly from the current year.\nIn his view, the most likely source of further gains in Apple shares in the near term would have to come from further multiple expansion. He thinks that’s possible if the iPhone 13 cycle is stronger than expected, Apple sets an aggressive new goal on services revenue growth or begins offering its products as a service. (But he’s not betting on it.)\nSacconaghi also asserts that Apple’s current valuation is “relatively full,” trading inline to higher than other tech megacaps, in particular Facebook (FB) and Alphabet (GOOGL), which as he notes have both better expected growth rates and higher margins.\n“Looked at another way, close to 100% of revenue from Alphabet and Facebook have financial characteristics of Apple’s attractive services business,” which is about 20% of the company’s overall revenue, but Apple trades at a similar multiple to Alphabet and a premium to Facebook.\nSacconaghi thinks long-term Apple is likely to be a low-to-mid single digit grower. His view is that 70% of the revenue base – iPhone, Mac and iPad – are unlikely to show any long-term growth. He sees new products growth in the 15% range, and projects 15% growth for the services business, generating a blended long-term growth rate in the 4% to 5% range. (Note that as recently as FY 2019, Apple reported a slight revenue decline.)\nConcludes Sacconaghi: Given Apple’s relatively high valuation and the probability that tha the company will struggle to grow in fiscal 2022, the current risk-reward on the stock is “neutral to slightly negative.”\nAmid a broad market rally, Apple shares rose 0.9%, to $143.29.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1035,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":183986208,"gmtCreate":1623300428204,"gmtModify":1634034797728,"author":{"id":"3574857466681989","authorId":"3574857466681989","name":"Caffiend","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c39695ca395c2f9b8200d3efb630a65d","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3574857466681989","authorIdStr":"3574857466681989"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"moon time","listText":"moon time","text":"moon time","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/183986208","repostId":"2142210925","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2142210925","kind":"highlight","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Dow Jones publishes the world’s most trusted business news and financial information in a variety of media.","home_visible":0,"media_name":"Dow Jones","id":"106","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/150f88aa4d182df19190059f4a365e99"},"pubTimestamp":1623289980,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2142210925?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-10 09:53","market":"us","language":"en","title":"This robot-run fund thinks GameStop stock will soar in June, and predicts a fall for Tesla and Amazon","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2142210925","media":"Dow Jones","summary":"Shares in GameStop have already climbed since an artificial-intelligence trading bot added it to the","content":"<p>Shares in GameStop have already climbed since an artificial-intelligence trading bot added it to the AMOM fund on June 2</p>\n<p>An exchange-traded fund driven by artificial intelligence booted Tesla and Amazon from its portfolio in June, instead choosing to load up on shares of companies including Qualcomm, Snap and GameStop.</p>\n<p>The Qraft AI-Enhanced U.S. Large Cap Momentum ETF, trading as AMOM <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMOM\">$(AMOM)$</a> on the New York Stock Exchange, removed major technology companies from its portfolio this month, as it shifted to favor retailers and other post-pandemic trades.</p>\n<p>Electric-car maker Tesla <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">$(TSLA)$</a> and online retailer Amazon <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMZN\">$(AMZN)$</a> represented two of the fund's three largest holdings in May, but were completely removed in the latest rebalancing on June 2, along with graphics microchip maker Nvidia <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">$(NVDA)$</a>, which was its sixth-largest holding. The artificial-intelligence program controlling the fund believes these stocks will see price declines across the coming month.</p>\n<p>The standout among the stocks added in June was GameStop <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GME\">$(GME)$</a>, the videogame retailer that epitomized the \"meme stock\" trading frenzy that began in late January.</p>\n<p>This was when a flock of investors, largely organized on social media platform Reddit, helped squeeze hedge funds' short positions on companies including GameStop, cinema chain AMC <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMC\">$(AMC)$</a>, and tech group BlackBerry (BB.T) earlier this year. The trading frenzy caused multibillion-dollar losses for hedge funds, unbelievable gains for individuals that timed it right, and ushered in a new era of internet-inspired trading.</p>\n<p>GameStop's stock price rose almost 10-fold from Jan. 15 to Jan. 27, from $35 per share to nearly $350. The stock is currently trading around $300 and makes up around 1% of AMOM. And now the AI calling the shots thinks it will move even higher in June, and the shares have already gained more than 6% since the stock was added to the fund for the first time.</p>\n<p>\"Few fund managers would take the risk of adding a meme stock to their portfolios, but Qraft's AI model has no such prejudices,\" said Geeseok Oh, a managing director at Qraft and the head of its Asia-Pacific business.</p>\n<p>The top five stocks by portfolio weight added to AMOM in June include semiconductor group Qualcomm <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/QCOM\">$(QCOM)$</a>, Big Tobacco company Philip Morris <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PM\">$(PM)$</a>, social-media player Snap <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SNAP\">$(SNAP)$</a>, medical technology specialists Edwards Lifesciences <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/EW\">$(EW)$</a>, and orthodontics group Align Technology <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ALGN\">$(ALGN)$</a>.</p>\n<p>After the fund was rebalanced, AMOM's top five largest holdings by portfolio weight were tech giant <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/FB\">Facebook</a> (FB), retailers Walmart <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WMT\">$(WMT)$</a> and Home Depot <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/HD\">$(HD)$</a>, software company Adobe <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ADBE\">$(ADBE)$</a>, and semiconductor manufacturing company Texas Instruments <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TXN\">$(TXN)$</a>.</p>\n<p>\"This month, AMOM's portfolio appears to be shifting towards post-pandemic trades, a bit more diversified of a portfolio from the previous month's big tech-heavy strategy,\" said Oh.</p>\n<p>AMOM's decision to remove Tesla from its portfolio came after a bullish bet failed to pay off. The fund bought around $1.4 million worth of shares in the electric-vehicle company in May after avoiding the stock for months, and shares in Tesla fell 7% before the AI ditched it from the fund. This mistake with Tesla was a rare occurrence for the robot controlling AMOM, which otherwise has a strong record of predicting moves in the company's share price .</p>\n<p>AMOM has been listed in New York since May 2019, and has delivered total returns of 11% so far in 2021 and 53% in the past year -- outpacing its benchmark, the S&P 500 Momentum index , which has climbed a comparable 26% in the past year.</p>\n<p>AMOM is an actively managed portfolio driven by artificial intelligence, tracking 50 large-cap U.S. stocks and reweighting its holdings each month. It is based on a momentum strategy, with the AI behind its stock picks capitalizing on the movements of existing market trends to inform the decision to add, remove, or reweight holdings. The artificial intelligence scans the market and uses its predictive power to analyze a wide set of patterns that show stock-market momentum.</p>\n<p>The fund is a product of Qraft, a Seoul, South Korea-based fintech group leveraging AI across its investment products, which include three other AI-picked versions of major indexes: a U.S. large cap index <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/QRFT\">$(QRFT)$</a>; a U.S. large cap dividend index <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/HDIV.UK\">$(HDIV.UK)$</a>; and a U.S. value index <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVQ\">$(NVQ)$</a>.</p>\n<p>The entrance of AI-run funds onto Wall Street promised a new high-tech future for investing, though it hasn't quite lived up to the hype yet. Theoretically, researchers have shown that AI investing strategies can beat the market by up to 40% on an annualized basis , when tested against historical data.</p>\n<p>But Vasant Dhar, a professor at New York University's Stern School of Business and the founder of machine-learning-based hedge fund SCT Capital Management, argued on MarketWatch in June 2020 that AI-run funds won't \"crack\" the code of the stock market.</p>\n<p>Advocating caution, Dhar said that it was difficult for funds underpinned by machine learning to maintain a sustainable edge over markets, which have \"a nonstationary and adversarial nature.\" He advised investors considering an AI system to ask tough questions, including how likely it is that the AI's \"edge\" will persist into the future, and what the inherent uncertainties and range of performance outcomes for the fund are.</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>This robot-run fund thinks GameStop stock will soar in June, and predicts a fall for Tesla and Amazon</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; 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}\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nThis robot-run fund thinks GameStop stock will soar in June, and predicts a fall for Tesla and Amazon\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<div class=\"head\" \">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/150f88aa4d182df19190059f4a365e99);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Dow Jones </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2021-06-10 09:53</p>\n</div>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Shares in GameStop have already climbed since an artificial-intelligence trading bot added it to the AMOM fund on June 2</p>\n<p>An exchange-traded fund driven by artificial intelligence booted Tesla and Amazon from its portfolio in June, instead choosing to load up on shares of companies including Qualcomm, Snap and GameStop.</p>\n<p>The Qraft AI-Enhanced U.S. Large Cap Momentum ETF, trading as AMOM <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMOM\">$(AMOM)$</a> on the New York Stock Exchange, removed major technology companies from its portfolio this month, as it shifted to favor retailers and other post-pandemic trades.</p>\n<p>Electric-car maker Tesla <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">$(TSLA)$</a> and online retailer Amazon <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMZN\">$(AMZN)$</a> represented two of the fund's three largest holdings in May, but were completely removed in the latest rebalancing on June 2, along with graphics microchip maker Nvidia <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">$(NVDA)$</a>, which was its sixth-largest holding. The artificial-intelligence program controlling the fund believes these stocks will see price declines across the coming month.</p>\n<p>The standout among the stocks added in June was GameStop <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GME\">$(GME)$</a>, the videogame retailer that epitomized the \"meme stock\" trading frenzy that began in late January.</p>\n<p>This was when a flock of investors, largely organized on social media platform Reddit, helped squeeze hedge funds' short positions on companies including GameStop, cinema chain AMC <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMC\">$(AMC)$</a>, and tech group BlackBerry (BB.T) earlier this year. The trading frenzy caused multibillion-dollar losses for hedge funds, unbelievable gains for individuals that timed it right, and ushered in a new era of internet-inspired trading.</p>\n<p>GameStop's stock price rose almost 10-fold from Jan. 15 to Jan. 27, from $35 per share to nearly $350. The stock is currently trading around $300 and makes up around 1% of AMOM. And now the AI calling the shots thinks it will move even higher in June, and the shares have already gained more than 6% since the stock was added to the fund for the first time.</p>\n<p>\"Few fund managers would take the risk of adding a meme stock to their portfolios, but Qraft's AI model has no such prejudices,\" said Geeseok Oh, a managing director at Qraft and the head of its Asia-Pacific business.</p>\n<p>The top five stocks by portfolio weight added to AMOM in June include semiconductor group Qualcomm <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/QCOM\">$(QCOM)$</a>, Big Tobacco company Philip Morris <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PM\">$(PM)$</a>, social-media player Snap <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SNAP\">$(SNAP)$</a>, medical technology specialists Edwards Lifesciences <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/EW\">$(EW)$</a>, and orthodontics group Align Technology <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ALGN\">$(ALGN)$</a>.</p>\n<p>After the fund was rebalanced, AMOM's top five largest holdings by portfolio weight were tech giant <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/FB\">Facebook</a> (FB), retailers Walmart <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WMT\">$(WMT)$</a> and Home Depot <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/HD\">$(HD)$</a>, software company Adobe <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ADBE\">$(ADBE)$</a>, and semiconductor manufacturing company Texas Instruments <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TXN\">$(TXN)$</a>.</p>\n<p>\"This month, AMOM's portfolio appears to be shifting towards post-pandemic trades, a bit more diversified of a portfolio from the previous month's big tech-heavy strategy,\" said Oh.</p>\n<p>AMOM's decision to remove Tesla from its portfolio came after a bullish bet failed to pay off. The fund bought around $1.4 million worth of shares in the electric-vehicle company in May after avoiding the stock for months, and shares in Tesla fell 7% before the AI ditched it from the fund. This mistake with Tesla was a rare occurrence for the robot controlling AMOM, which otherwise has a strong record of predicting moves in the company's share price .</p>\n<p>AMOM has been listed in New York since May 2019, and has delivered total returns of 11% so far in 2021 and 53% in the past year -- outpacing its benchmark, the S&P 500 Momentum index , which has climbed a comparable 26% in the past year.</p>\n<p>AMOM is an actively managed portfolio driven by artificial intelligence, tracking 50 large-cap U.S. stocks and reweighting its holdings each month. It is based on a momentum strategy, with the AI behind its stock picks capitalizing on the movements of existing market trends to inform the decision to add, remove, or reweight holdings. The artificial intelligence scans the market and uses its predictive power to analyze a wide set of patterns that show stock-market momentum.</p>\n<p>The fund is a product of Qraft, a Seoul, South Korea-based fintech group leveraging AI across its investment products, which include three other AI-picked versions of major indexes: a U.S. large cap index <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/QRFT\">$(QRFT)$</a>; a U.S. large cap dividend index <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/HDIV.UK\">$(HDIV.UK)$</a>; and a U.S. value index <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVQ\">$(NVQ)$</a>.</p>\n<p>The entrance of AI-run funds onto Wall Street promised a new high-tech future for investing, though it hasn't quite lived up to the hype yet. Theoretically, researchers have shown that AI investing strategies can beat the market by up to 40% on an annualized basis , when tested against historical data.</p>\n<p>But Vasant Dhar, a professor at New York University's Stern School of Business and the founder of machine-learning-based hedge fund SCT Capital Management, argued on MarketWatch in June 2020 that AI-run funds won't \"crack\" the code of the stock market.</p>\n<p>Advocating caution, Dhar said that it was difficult for funds underpinned by machine learning to maintain a sustainable edge over markets, which have \"a nonstationary and adversarial nature.\" He advised investors considering an AI system to ask tough questions, including how likely it is that the AI's \"edge\" will persist into the future, and what the inherent uncertainties and range of performance outcomes for the fund are.</p>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AMZN":"亚马逊","ALGN":"艾利科技","HD":"家得宝","TSLA":"特斯拉","TXN":"德州仪器","PM":"菲利普莫里斯","NVDA":"英伟达","QCOM":"高通","EW":"爱德华兹","AMOM":"QRAFT AI-Enhanced U.S. Large Cap Momentum ETF","SNAP":"Snap Inc","09086":"华夏纳指-U","WMT":"沃尔玛","03086":"华夏纳指","QNETCN":"纳斯达克中美互联网老虎指数","GME":"游戏驿站","ADBE":"Adobe"},"is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2142210925","content_text":"Shares in GameStop have already climbed since an artificial-intelligence trading bot added it to the AMOM fund on June 2\nAn exchange-traded fund driven by artificial intelligence booted Tesla and Amazon from its portfolio in June, instead choosing to load up on shares of companies including Qualcomm, Snap and GameStop.\nThe Qraft AI-Enhanced U.S. Large Cap Momentum ETF, trading as AMOM $(AMOM)$ on the New York Stock Exchange, removed major technology companies from its portfolio this month, as it shifted to favor retailers and other post-pandemic trades.\nElectric-car maker Tesla $(TSLA)$ and online retailer Amazon $(AMZN)$ represented two of the fund's three largest holdings in May, but were completely removed in the latest rebalancing on June 2, along with graphics microchip maker Nvidia $(NVDA)$, which was its sixth-largest holding. The artificial-intelligence program controlling the fund believes these stocks will see price declines across the coming month.\nThe standout among the stocks added in June was GameStop $(GME)$, the videogame retailer that epitomized the \"meme stock\" trading frenzy that began in late January.\nThis was when a flock of investors, largely organized on social media platform Reddit, helped squeeze hedge funds' short positions on companies including GameStop, cinema chain AMC $(AMC)$, and tech group BlackBerry (BB.T) earlier this year. The trading frenzy caused multibillion-dollar losses for hedge funds, unbelievable gains for individuals that timed it right, and ushered in a new era of internet-inspired trading.\nGameStop's stock price rose almost 10-fold from Jan. 15 to Jan. 27, from $35 per share to nearly $350. The stock is currently trading around $300 and makes up around 1% of AMOM. And now the AI calling the shots thinks it will move even higher in June, and the shares have already gained more than 6% since the stock was added to the fund for the first time.\n\"Few fund managers would take the risk of adding a meme stock to their portfolios, but Qraft's AI model has no such prejudices,\" said Geeseok Oh, a managing director at Qraft and the head of its Asia-Pacific business.\nThe top five stocks by portfolio weight added to AMOM in June include semiconductor group Qualcomm $(QCOM)$, Big Tobacco company Philip Morris $(PM)$, social-media player Snap $(SNAP)$, medical technology specialists Edwards Lifesciences $(EW)$, and orthodontics group Align Technology $(ALGN)$.\nAfter the fund was rebalanced, AMOM's top five largest holdings by portfolio weight were tech giant Facebook (FB), retailers Walmart $(WMT)$ and Home Depot $(HD)$, software company Adobe $(ADBE)$, and semiconductor manufacturing company Texas Instruments $(TXN)$.\n\"This month, AMOM's portfolio appears to be shifting towards post-pandemic trades, a bit more diversified of a portfolio from the previous month's big tech-heavy strategy,\" said Oh.\nAMOM's decision to remove Tesla from its portfolio came after a bullish bet failed to pay off. The fund bought around $1.4 million worth of shares in the electric-vehicle company in May after avoiding the stock for months, and shares in Tesla fell 7% before the AI ditched it from the fund. This mistake with Tesla was a rare occurrence for the robot controlling AMOM, which otherwise has a strong record of predicting moves in the company's share price .\nAMOM has been listed in New York since May 2019, and has delivered total returns of 11% so far in 2021 and 53% in the past year -- outpacing its benchmark, the S&P 500 Momentum index , which has climbed a comparable 26% in the past year.\nAMOM is an actively managed portfolio driven by artificial intelligence, tracking 50 large-cap U.S. stocks and reweighting its holdings each month. It is based on a momentum strategy, with the AI behind its stock picks capitalizing on the movements of existing market trends to inform the decision to add, remove, or reweight holdings. The artificial intelligence scans the market and uses its predictive power to analyze a wide set of patterns that show stock-market momentum.\nThe fund is a product of Qraft, a Seoul, South Korea-based fintech group leveraging AI across its investment products, which include three other AI-picked versions of major indexes: a U.S. large cap index $(QRFT)$; a U.S. large cap dividend index $(HDIV.UK)$; and a U.S. value index $(NVQ)$.\nThe entrance of AI-run funds onto Wall Street promised a new high-tech future for investing, though it hasn't quite lived up to the hype yet. Theoretically, researchers have shown that AI investing strategies can beat the market by up to 40% on an annualized basis , when tested against historical data.\nBut Vasant Dhar, a professor at New York University's Stern School of Business and the founder of machine-learning-based hedge fund SCT Capital Management, argued on MarketWatch in June 2020 that AI-run funds won't \"crack\" the code of the stock market.\nAdvocating caution, Dhar said that it was difficult for funds underpinned by machine learning to maintain a sustainable edge over markets, which have \"a nonstationary and adversarial nature.\" He advised investors considering an AI system to ask tough questions, including how likely it is that the AI's \"edge\" will persist into the future, and what the inherent uncertainties and range of performance outcomes for the fund are.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":206,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":345420504,"gmtCreate":1618331959608,"gmtModify":1634293642107,"author":{"id":"3574857466681989","authorId":"3574857466681989","name":"Caffiend","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c39695ca395c2f9b8200d3efb630a65d","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3574857466681989","authorIdStr":"3574857466681989"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"yes","listText":"yes","text":"yes","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/345420504","repostId":"1194635432","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1194635432","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1618236146,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1194635432?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-04-12 22:02","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Can You Make Coin Investing In Coinbase?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1194635432","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"SummaryCoinbase's current valuation is unjustified due to 2 fundamental risks: the hostility of the ","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p><ul><li>Coinbase's current valuation is unjustified due to 2 fundamental risks: the hostility of the US regulatory landscape towards centralized exchanges, and the widening gap in a winner-takes-all market.</li><li>With coin listings being one of the core competitive advantages of an exchange, Coinbase has the 2nd smallest coin listings among the top 10 exchanges as a result of regulations.</li><li>Widening gap between Coinbase (ranked 2nd) and Binance (ranked 1st) in terms of coin listings and trading volume is evidence of a winner-takes-all market, Coinbase is on the losing side.</li><li>Marginal revenue growth, decline in profitability, and decline in the overall growth stock valuations further plague Coinbase's investment value proposition.</li></ul><p>I remember the early days of cryptocurrency when Binance andCoinbase (COIN) were competing for the top spot as an exchange. If you've traded cryptocurrencies in the US, you have probably used or heard ofCoinbase. Now thatCoinbase is going public, should you invest in the company?</p><p>At first glance, this investment value proposition seemed compelling since the overall cryptocurrency industry is growing rapidly. However, I have found evidence of 2 fundamental risks toCoinbase's growth that could not justify its current valuation and could even undermine its future growth. Recentreportsmay also express agreement asCoinbase's IPO valuation dropped from $100bn to $68bn.</p><p><b>Fundamental Risks 1: The US Regulatory Landscape</b></p><p>The US regulatory landscape is not friendly to centralized exchanges in a way that massively dampenedCoinbase's competitive advantages, one of which is coin listings.</p><p>Coinbase has the 2nd smallest coin listings</p><p>Coin listing is one of the most crucial criteria for a trader/investor when choosing an exchange. Traders/investors require a large number of coin listings to speculate on small-cap altcoins for 10x-100x return. The more coins listed, the more opportunities and choices. I personally use several exchanges for this very reason other than unique features such as staking and etc. The 6 exchanges I use are Binance, Crypto.com, KuCoin, Bkex, PoloniEx, and MXC Pro.</p><p>Why do I use multiple exchanges? Let me illustrate via an example. KuCoin listed Orion(NYSE:ORN)in July 2020 at $1, about 2 months earlier than Binance in October 2020. I bought ORN through KuCoin on its first day at $1.1 and staked it at >20% APY interest. When Binance announced it was listing ORN, its priced spiked upwards. On ORN's first trading day on Binance, ORN's price spiked up as high as $4++ (it is a common occurrence for a token to spike when it is listed in a new exchange). I redeemed my ORN from staking and sold it at $3.60. This transaction earned me more than 300% return. Therefore, the more coins listed, the more opportunities I'll have to replicate this particular transaction to other small-cap altcoins.</p><p>SinceCoinbase's coin listing is small, traders/investors like myself will find it difficult to find these kinds of opportunities. Furthermore, many of the largest-cap coins are not listed onCoinbase. This is one of the main reasons why I did not useCoinbase; I theorize that many traders/investors like myself feel that way. (Let me know in the comments.)</p><p>In a recent lawsuit, a man claiming to beCoinbase's client capitalized on the legal battle between Ripple Labs’ battle and U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), suedCoinbase for selling XRP tokens and sought compensations and other relief. According to CoinMarketCap.com, XRP is no longer listed onCoinbase. However, it is listed on more than500 other centralized exchanges(excluding decentralized exchanges) that are much smaller thanCoinbase outside the US.</p><p>XRP is the 7th biggest cryptocurrency by market cap as of the time of writing. Many other top cryptocurrencies are also not found onCoinbase, such as BNB (ranked 3rd), ADA (ranked 4th), DOT (ranked 6th). Amongthe 10 highest-rated centralized exchanges(refer to Table 1), only Bitstamp (18) offers fewer cryptocurrencies thanCoinbase (49), while the market leader (Binance) ledCoinbase by 700% in coin listings.</p><p>Since regulation can directly affect coin listings, a competitive advantage of an exchange,Coinbase already faces overwhelming challenges to compete on this front alone.</p><p>Table 1: Top 10 Spot Exchange Ranked by CoinMarketCap Ratings.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5bf68da62452a794c5daaa60ac989840\" tg-width=\"554\" tg-height=\"576\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Source: Table created by Author fromCoinMarketCap</p><p><b>Other Regulatory Risks</b></p><p>Regulatory risks extend beyond coin listings and the US.Coinbase offers its services to52 countries. If any of the 52 countries ban crypto assets, its revenue would be adversely affected. It is not uncommon for centralized exchanges to relocate to another country due to regulations. While India isplotting a move to ban cryptocurrencies, many exchanges apply forlicenses to move out from India.</p><p>Statistically speaking, 108 exchangesshut downin 2020, compared to 81 in 2019. At least 3 are shut down by government(s) in 2020, and at least 2 in 2019.</p><p>Although it seems unlikely for the US to follow China's and India's footsteps to drastically ban crypto-assets now, regulatory risks remain major risks toCoinbase.</p><p><b>Fundamental Risk 2: Losing a Winner-Takes-All Market</b></p><p>There are 2 types of crypto exchanges: centralized and decentralized. Both have pros and cons. The best known centralized exchange is Binance, while the best known decentralized exchange is Uniswap. Although centralized exchanges may require a license by a governing body, decentralized exchanges might not, as decentralized exchanges can have avarying degree of centralized components. Both centralized and decentralized exchanges have their respective roles in the crypto ecosystem, hence I think that both are here to stay.</p><p>Many of the decentralized exchange source codes are open source (full listshere). In other words, virtually anyone can develop and host a decentralized exchange. This implies a shallow barrier to entry. Uniswap is the market leader in the decentralized exchange space. Itrecordedmore than $58bn volume in 2020, up 15,000% from 2019. Note that Uniswap wasfirst launchedin November 2018, compared toCoinbase in 2012.</p><p>On the other hand, Binance, the market leader in the centralized exchange space, recorded a total of$1.417 trillion spot trading volume in 2020, an increase of 36% from 2019. This figure does not even include other trading volumes, such as options, futures, margin, and other services, which amounted to $1.7 trillion, a 2800% increase from 2019.</p><p>In comparison,Coinbase only recorded $445bn total trading volume in 2020, a 39% increase in 2019. This is evidence that the market leader is pulling away, implying a winner-takes-all market. This becomes evident by referring to Table 1, where the market leader has more than 10 times the trading value than the 2nd place (Coinbase).</p><p>Furthermore, many traditional financial, non-financial international corporations and fintech companies are also participating in the competition. One of the latest addition is ApplePay.ApplePaynow has official support for cryptocurrencies, with GooglePay and SamsungPay to follow suit. Other note-worthy companies include Square, Paypal, and Visa.</p><p>In my opinion,Coinbase looks to be on the losing side if this market is indeed a winner-takes-all market. Further,Coinbase could be losing market more market share as more competition arises.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/01ca6dafd2b567bd920c5e9f8edc8fbb\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"202\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Source:BusinessofApps</p><p><b>Valuation</b></p><p>The tables below showed thatCoinbase's profit margin is healthy at 28% in 2020. Revenue growth rate compounds at approximately 7% annually from 2017-2020, but profits declined.</p><p>Coinbase's valuation in 2017 remains the most attractive, at 1.725 P/S (Price-to-Sales ratio) and 4.21 P/E (Price-to-Earnings ratio). Earlier this month,Coinbase's IPO valuation is pegged at$100bn. However, recent reports indicated a decrease inCoinbase's IPO valuation to$68bn.At a valuation of $100bn and $68bn,Coinbase is valued at approximately 333 P/E and 211 P/E respectively, or approximately 87.7 P/S and 59.65 P/S respectively.</p><p>Coinbase's valuation in 2020 is a far cry from 2017. Perhaps,Coinbase is pushing for its IPO to cash in on the overall stock market's high valuation.</p><p>Nevertheless, considering the 2 fundamental risks outlined above, marginal revenue growth and declined profits,Coinbase is overvalued at the current valuation in my opinion. The current decline in growth stocks further deterioratesCoinbase's investment value proposition.</p><p>Table 3:Coinbase's Revenue from 2016-2020<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/de8396c363230e04130e43f63d653956\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"231\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Source:BusinessofApps</p><p>Table 4:Coinbase's Profit from 2016-2020<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/be2327ad800bd3524a3aaa57e3a0b17f\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"208\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Source:BusinessofApps</p><p>Table 5:Coinbase's Historical Valuations<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4b1fd86395ee1b0e38f1f6fd472f84bd\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"159\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Source:BusinessofApps</p><p><b>Verdict</b></p><p>In my opinion, the current valuation ofCoinbase couldn't be justified even though the crypto industry is growing rapidly in general. This is down toCoinbase's 2 fundamental risks outlined in this article, marginal growth, sky-high valuation, and the decline in the growth stocks.</p><p>The reason I retain a neutral outlook onCoinbase is the overall outlook of the industry. On the other hand, we can participate in Binance, the market leader in the centralized exchange space, to maximize investment growth. Although Binance is not publicly traded, we can participate in its growth by buying its platform token (BNB).Binance uses part of its profitsto buy back its platform token (BNB)periodically. This results in a gradual increase in its token's price, a similar effect of shares buyback. Hence, I participate in Binance's growth by buying BNB, which saw a 670% YTD return.</p>","source":"seekingalpha","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Can You Make Coin Investing In Coinbase?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nCan You Make Coin Investing In Coinbase?\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-04-12 22:02 GMT+8 <a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4416527-coinbase-path-to-moon-will-be-bumpy-one><strong>seekingalpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>SummaryCoinbase's current valuation is unjustified due to 2 fundamental risks: the hostility of the US regulatory landscape towards centralized exchanges, and the widening gap in a winner-takes-all ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4416527-coinbase-path-to-moon-will-be-bumpy-one\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"COIN":"Coinbase Global, Inc."},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4416527-coinbase-path-to-moon-will-be-bumpy-one","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/5a36db9d73b4222bc376d24ccc48c8a4","article_id":"1194635432","content_text":"SummaryCoinbase's current valuation is unjustified due to 2 fundamental risks: the hostility of the US regulatory landscape towards centralized exchanges, and the widening gap in a winner-takes-all market.With coin listings being one of the core competitive advantages of an exchange, Coinbase has the 2nd smallest coin listings among the top 10 exchanges as a result of regulations.Widening gap between Coinbase (ranked 2nd) and Binance (ranked 1st) in terms of coin listings and trading volume is evidence of a winner-takes-all market, Coinbase is on the losing side.Marginal revenue growth, decline in profitability, and decline in the overall growth stock valuations further plague Coinbase's investment value proposition.I remember the early days of cryptocurrency when Binance andCoinbase (COIN) were competing for the top spot as an exchange. If you've traded cryptocurrencies in the US, you have probably used or heard ofCoinbase. Now thatCoinbase is going public, should you invest in the company?At first glance, this investment value proposition seemed compelling since the overall cryptocurrency industry is growing rapidly. However, I have found evidence of 2 fundamental risks toCoinbase's growth that could not justify its current valuation and could even undermine its future growth. Recentreportsmay also express agreement asCoinbase's IPO valuation dropped from $100bn to $68bn.Fundamental Risks 1: The US Regulatory LandscapeThe US regulatory landscape is not friendly to centralized exchanges in a way that massively dampenedCoinbase's competitive advantages, one of which is coin listings.Coinbase has the 2nd smallest coin listingsCoin listing is one of the most crucial criteria for a trader/investor when choosing an exchange. Traders/investors require a large number of coin listings to speculate on small-cap altcoins for 10x-100x return. The more coins listed, the more opportunities and choices. I personally use several exchanges for this very reason other than unique features such as staking and etc. The 6 exchanges I use are Binance, Crypto.com, KuCoin, Bkex, PoloniEx, and MXC Pro.Why do I use multiple exchanges? Let me illustrate via an example. KuCoin listed Orion(NYSE:ORN)in July 2020 at $1, about 2 months earlier than Binance in October 2020. I bought ORN through KuCoin on its first day at $1.1 and staked it at >20% APY interest. When Binance announced it was listing ORN, its priced spiked upwards. On ORN's first trading day on Binance, ORN's price spiked up as high as $4++ (it is a common occurrence for a token to spike when it is listed in a new exchange). I redeemed my ORN from staking and sold it at $3.60. This transaction earned me more than 300% return. Therefore, the more coins listed, the more opportunities I'll have to replicate this particular transaction to other small-cap altcoins.SinceCoinbase's coin listing is small, traders/investors like myself will find it difficult to find these kinds of opportunities. Furthermore, many of the largest-cap coins are not listed onCoinbase. This is one of the main reasons why I did not useCoinbase; I theorize that many traders/investors like myself feel that way. (Let me know in the comments.)In a recent lawsuit, a man claiming to beCoinbase's client capitalized on the legal battle between Ripple Labs’ battle and U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), suedCoinbase for selling XRP tokens and sought compensations and other relief. According to CoinMarketCap.com, XRP is no longer listed onCoinbase. However, it is listed on more than500 other centralized exchanges(excluding decentralized exchanges) that are much smaller thanCoinbase outside the US.XRP is the 7th biggest cryptocurrency by market cap as of the time of writing. Many other top cryptocurrencies are also not found onCoinbase, such as BNB (ranked 3rd), ADA (ranked 4th), DOT (ranked 6th). Amongthe 10 highest-rated centralized exchanges(refer to Table 1), only Bitstamp (18) offers fewer cryptocurrencies thanCoinbase (49), while the market leader (Binance) ledCoinbase by 700% in coin listings.Since regulation can directly affect coin listings, a competitive advantage of an exchange,Coinbase already faces overwhelming challenges to compete on this front alone.Table 1: Top 10 Spot Exchange Ranked by CoinMarketCap Ratings.Source: Table created by Author fromCoinMarketCapOther Regulatory RisksRegulatory risks extend beyond coin listings and the US.Coinbase offers its services to52 countries. If any of the 52 countries ban crypto assets, its revenue would be adversely affected. It is not uncommon for centralized exchanges to relocate to another country due to regulations. While India isplotting a move to ban cryptocurrencies, many exchanges apply forlicenses to move out from India.Statistically speaking, 108 exchangesshut downin 2020, compared to 81 in 2019. At least 3 are shut down by government(s) in 2020, and at least 2 in 2019.Although it seems unlikely for the US to follow China's and India's footsteps to drastically ban crypto-assets now, regulatory risks remain major risks toCoinbase.Fundamental Risk 2: Losing a Winner-Takes-All MarketThere are 2 types of crypto exchanges: centralized and decentralized. Both have pros and cons. The best known centralized exchange is Binance, while the best known decentralized exchange is Uniswap. Although centralized exchanges may require a license by a governing body, decentralized exchanges might not, as decentralized exchanges can have avarying degree of centralized components. Both centralized and decentralized exchanges have their respective roles in the crypto ecosystem, hence I think that both are here to stay.Many of the decentralized exchange source codes are open source (full listshere). In other words, virtually anyone can develop and host a decentralized exchange. This implies a shallow barrier to entry. Uniswap is the market leader in the decentralized exchange space. Itrecordedmore than $58bn volume in 2020, up 15,000% from 2019. Note that Uniswap wasfirst launchedin November 2018, compared toCoinbase in 2012.On the other hand, Binance, the market leader in the centralized exchange space, recorded a total of$1.417 trillion spot trading volume in 2020, an increase of 36% from 2019. This figure does not even include other trading volumes, such as options, futures, margin, and other services, which amounted to $1.7 trillion, a 2800% increase from 2019.In comparison,Coinbase only recorded $445bn total trading volume in 2020, a 39% increase in 2019. This is evidence that the market leader is pulling away, implying a winner-takes-all market. This becomes evident by referring to Table 1, where the market leader has more than 10 times the trading value than the 2nd place (Coinbase).Furthermore, many traditional financial, non-financial international corporations and fintech companies are also participating in the competition. One of the latest addition is ApplePay.ApplePaynow has official support for cryptocurrencies, with GooglePay and SamsungPay to follow suit. Other note-worthy companies include Square, Paypal, and Visa.In my opinion,Coinbase looks to be on the losing side if this market is indeed a winner-takes-all market. Further,Coinbase could be losing market more market share as more competition arises.Source:BusinessofAppsValuationThe tables below showed thatCoinbase's profit margin is healthy at 28% in 2020. Revenue growth rate compounds at approximately 7% annually from 2017-2020, but profits declined.Coinbase's valuation in 2017 remains the most attractive, at 1.725 P/S (Price-to-Sales ratio) and 4.21 P/E (Price-to-Earnings ratio). Earlier this month,Coinbase's IPO valuation is pegged at$100bn. However, recent reports indicated a decrease inCoinbase's IPO valuation to$68bn.At a valuation of $100bn and $68bn,Coinbase is valued at approximately 333 P/E and 211 P/E respectively, or approximately 87.7 P/S and 59.65 P/S respectively.Coinbase's valuation in 2020 is a far cry from 2017. Perhaps,Coinbase is pushing for its IPO to cash in on the overall stock market's high valuation.Nevertheless, considering the 2 fundamental risks outlined above, marginal revenue growth and declined profits,Coinbase is overvalued at the current valuation in my opinion. The current decline in growth stocks further deterioratesCoinbase's investment value proposition.Table 3:Coinbase's Revenue from 2016-2020Source:BusinessofAppsTable 4:Coinbase's Profit from 2016-2020Source:BusinessofAppsTable 5:Coinbase's Historical ValuationsSource:BusinessofAppsVerdictIn my opinion, the current valuation ofCoinbase couldn't be justified even though the crypto industry is growing rapidly in general. This is down toCoinbase's 2 fundamental risks outlined in this article, marginal growth, sky-high valuation, and the decline in the growth stocks.The reason I retain a neutral outlook onCoinbase is the overall outlook of the industry. On the other hand, we can participate in Binance, the market leader in the centralized exchange space, to maximize investment growth. Although Binance is not publicly traded, we can participate in its growth by buying its platform token (BNB).Binance uses part of its profitsto buy back its platform token (BNB)periodically. This results in a gradual increase in its token's price, a similar effect of shares buyback. Hence, I participate in Binance's growth by buying BNB, which saw a 670% YTD return.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":198,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":825322227,"gmtCreate":1634203354301,"gmtModify":1634203354301,"author":{"id":"3574857466681989","authorId":"3574857466681989","name":"Caffiend","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c39695ca395c2f9b8200d3efb630a65d","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3574857466681989","idStr":"3574857466681989"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"wow","listText":"wow","text":"wow","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/825322227","repostId":"1176807279","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1176807279","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Providing stock market headlines, business news, financials and earnings ","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Tiger Newspress","id":"1079075236","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1634203027,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1176807279?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-10-14 17:17","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Apple shares rallied 0.8% in premarket trading","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1176807279","media":"Tiger Newspress","summary":"Apple shares rallied 0.8% in premarket trading after Morgan Stanley analyst Katy Huberty reiterated an overweight rating on Apple.Morgan Stanley analyst Katy Huberty reiterated an overweight rating on Apple after reports that iPhone output might be hindered by the global chip shortage.Morgan Stanley analyst Katy Huberty on Wednesday urged investors to buy the dip in Apple despite reports that the tech giant may need to cut production of its signature iPhone 13 by as much as 10 million units due ","content":"<p>Apple shares rallied 0.8% in premarket trading after Morgan Stanley analyst Katy Huberty reiterated an overweight rating on Apple.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/735b28a2fae1ded576148e22cba94a98\" tg-width=\"848\" tg-height=\"619\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p>\n<p>Morgan Stanley analyst Katy Huberty reiterated an overweight rating on Apple after reports that iPhone output might be hindered by the global chip shortage.</p>\n<p>Morgan Stanley analyst Katy Huberty on Wednesday urged investors to buy the dip in Apple despite reports that the tech giant may need to cut production of its signature iPhone 13 by as much as 10 million units due to the global chip shortage.</p>\n<p>\"We are buyers of any near-term Apple share price weakness on iPhone supply-chain disruption given Apple is likely to receive more supply than competitors, demand isn't perishable,\" Huberty wrote in a note.</p>\n<p>\"If Apple can't meet near-term demand, the shortfall is likely to be even greater at competitors, creating an opportunity for share gains,\" she wrote in a note published Wednesday.</p>\n<p>Shares of the Cupertino, Calif., company on Wednesday slipped 0.4% to $140.91.</p>\n<p>The investment firm maintained its overweight rating on the stock with a price target of $168 a share.</p>\n<p>\"While we have not specifically heard of material iPhone production bottlenecks due to semiconductor shortages at Broadcom or Texas Instruments, broader supply tightness continues to be a real issue across a number of end markets,\" she added.</p>\n<p>Broadcom and Texas Instruments are manufacturing partners for Apple.</p>\n<p>Apple had expected to produce 90 million new iPhone models in the last three months of the year.</p>\n<p>But it’s now telling manufacturing partners that the total will be lower because Broadcom and Texas Instruments are struggling to deliver enough components,Bloomberg reported, citing sources.</p>\n<p>\"Our FY22 estimates are unlikely to change materially even if revenue and EPS shift across quarters,\" she added.</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Apple shares rallied 0.8% in premarket trading</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nApple shares rallied 0.8% in premarket trading\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1079075236\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Tiger Newspress </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2021-10-14 17:17</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Apple shares rallied 0.8% in premarket trading after Morgan Stanley analyst Katy Huberty reiterated an overweight rating on Apple.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/735b28a2fae1ded576148e22cba94a98\" tg-width=\"848\" tg-height=\"619\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p>\n<p>Morgan Stanley analyst Katy Huberty reiterated an overweight rating on Apple after reports that iPhone output might be hindered by the global chip shortage.</p>\n<p>Morgan Stanley analyst Katy Huberty on Wednesday urged investors to buy the dip in Apple despite reports that the tech giant may need to cut production of its signature iPhone 13 by as much as 10 million units due to the global chip shortage.</p>\n<p>\"We are buyers of any near-term Apple share price weakness on iPhone supply-chain disruption given Apple is likely to receive more supply than competitors, demand isn't perishable,\" Huberty wrote in a note.</p>\n<p>\"If Apple can't meet near-term demand, the shortfall is likely to be even greater at competitors, creating an opportunity for share gains,\" she wrote in a note published Wednesday.</p>\n<p>Shares of the Cupertino, Calif., company on Wednesday slipped 0.4% to $140.91.</p>\n<p>The investment firm maintained its overweight rating on the stock with a price target of $168 a share.</p>\n<p>\"While we have not specifically heard of material iPhone production bottlenecks due to semiconductor shortages at Broadcom or Texas Instruments, broader supply tightness continues to be a real issue across a number of end markets,\" she added.</p>\n<p>Broadcom and Texas Instruments are manufacturing partners for Apple.</p>\n<p>Apple had expected to produce 90 million new iPhone models in the last three months of the year.</p>\n<p>But it’s now telling manufacturing partners that the total will be lower because Broadcom and Texas Instruments are struggling to deliver enough components,Bloomberg reported, citing sources.</p>\n<p>\"Our FY22 estimates are unlikely to change materially even if revenue and EPS shift across quarters,\" she added.</p>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AAPL":"苹果"},"is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1176807279","content_text":"Apple shares rallied 0.8% in premarket trading after Morgan Stanley analyst Katy Huberty reiterated an overweight rating on Apple.\n\nMorgan Stanley analyst Katy Huberty reiterated an overweight rating on Apple after reports that iPhone output might be hindered by the global chip shortage.\nMorgan Stanley analyst Katy Huberty on Wednesday urged investors to buy the dip in Apple despite reports that the tech giant may need to cut production of its signature iPhone 13 by as much as 10 million units due to the global chip shortage.\n\"We are buyers of any near-term Apple share price weakness on iPhone supply-chain disruption given Apple is likely to receive more supply than competitors, demand isn't perishable,\" Huberty wrote in a note.\n\"If Apple can't meet near-term demand, the shortfall is likely to be even greater at competitors, creating an opportunity for share gains,\" she wrote in a note published Wednesday.\nShares of the Cupertino, Calif., company on Wednesday slipped 0.4% to $140.91.\nThe investment firm maintained its overweight rating on the stock with a price target of $168 a share.\n\"While we have not specifically heard of material iPhone production bottlenecks due to semiconductor shortages at Broadcom or Texas Instruments, broader supply tightness continues to be a real issue across a number of end markets,\" she added.\nBroadcom and Texas Instruments are manufacturing partners for Apple.\nApple had expected to produce 90 million new iPhone models in the last three months of the year.\nBut it’s now telling manufacturing partners that the total will be lower because Broadcom and Texas Instruments are struggling to deliver enough components,Bloomberg reported, citing sources.\n\"Our FY22 estimates are unlikely to change materially even if revenue and EPS shift across quarters,\" she added.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":635,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":183986208,"gmtCreate":1623300428204,"gmtModify":1634034797728,"author":{"id":"3574857466681989","authorId":"3574857466681989","name":"Caffiend","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c39695ca395c2f9b8200d3efb630a65d","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3574857466681989","idStr":"3574857466681989"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"moon time","listText":"moon time","text":"moon time","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/183986208","repostId":"2142210925","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":206,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":821130887,"gmtCreate":1633703993381,"gmtModify":1633703993453,"author":{"id":"3574857466681989","authorId":"3574857466681989","name":"Caffiend","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c39695ca395c2f9b8200d3efb630a65d","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3574857466681989","idStr":"3574857466681989"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"apple will come out with new products and services","listText":"apple will come out with new products and services","text":"apple will come out with new products and services","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/821130887","repostId":"1192810083","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1192810083","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1633656904,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1192810083?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-10-08 09:35","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Apple Stock Will Struggle From Here, Analyst Cautions. Here’s Why.","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1192810083","media":"Barrons","summary":"Trigger warning for Apple bulls: I’m about to address the case for caution on the stock.\nBernstein a","content":"<p>Trigger warning for Apple bulls: I’m about to address the case for caution on the stock.</p>\n<p>Bernstein analyst Toni Sacconaghi lays out the case in a research note on Thursday. He focus on the most basic question for Apple (ticker:AAPL) shares: What can drive the stock higher from here?</p>\n<p>Sacconaghi points out that Apple has re-rated over the last two years from a below-market multiple to one trading at a 24% premium to the market. Apple traded at a discount to the market from 2013 to 2019, he notes. Apple now trades at a forward P/E of 26 times, he writes, “elevated” relative to historic norms.</p>\n<p>The analyst starts by reviewing the bull case for the stock. He notes that Apple fans say the company has a leverageable consumer brand that will allow Apple to both increase prices and enter new categories, like cars and artificial reality headsets.</p>\n<p>Apple bulls see the installed base of 1.65 billion devices offering ample room to deliver new services, including advertising, and possibly even social media. Not least, Sacconaghi writes, bulls see potential for higher gross margins as services become a higher percentage of the company’s revenue mix, creating the potential for consistent double-digit per-share earnings growth.</p>\n<p>But Sacconaghi counters that he sees limited room for earnings growth in the September 2022 fiscal year given a likely pullback in growth across the product line. His current model projects revenue for FY 2022 declining slightly from the current year.</p>\n<p>In his view, the most likely source of further gains in Apple shares in the near term would have to come from further multiple expansion. He thinks that’s possible if the iPhone 13 cycle is stronger than expected, Apple sets an aggressive new goal on services revenue growth or begins offering its products as a service. (But he’s not betting on it.)</p>\n<p>Sacconaghi also asserts that Apple’s current valuation is “relatively full,” trading inline to higher than other tech megacaps, in particular Facebook (FB) and Alphabet (GOOGL), which as he notes have both better expected growth rates and higher margins.</p>\n<p>“Looked at another way, close to 100% of revenue from Alphabet and Facebook have financial characteristics of Apple’s attractive services business,” which is about 20% of the company’s overall revenue, but Apple trades at a similar multiple to Alphabet and a premium to Facebook.</p>\n<p>Sacconaghi thinks long-term Apple is likely to be a low-to-mid single digit grower. His view is that 70% of the revenue base – iPhone, Mac and iPad – are unlikely to show any long-term growth. He sees new products growth in the 15% range, and projects 15% growth for the services business, generating a blended long-term growth rate in the 4% to 5% range. (Note that as recently as FY 2019, Apple reported a slight revenue decline.)</p>\n<p>Concludes Sacconaghi: Given Apple’s relatively high valuation and the probability that tha the company will struggle to grow in fiscal 2022, the current risk-reward on the stock is “neutral to slightly negative.”</p>\n<p>Amid a broad market rally, Apple shares rose 0.9%, to $143.29.</p>","source":"lsy1601382232898","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Apple Stock Will Struggle From Here, Analyst Cautions. Here’s Why.</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nApple Stock Will Struggle From Here, Analyst Cautions. Here’s Why.\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-10-08 09:35 GMT+8 <a href=https://www.barrons.com/articles/apple-stock-price-rally-caution-51633620422?mod=hp_LATEST><strong>Barrons</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Trigger warning for Apple bulls: I’m about to address the case for caution on the stock.\nBernstein analyst Toni Sacconaghi lays out the case in a research note on Thursday. He focus on the most basic ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.barrons.com/articles/apple-stock-price-rally-caution-51633620422?mod=hp_LATEST\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AAPL":"苹果"},"source_url":"https://www.barrons.com/articles/apple-stock-price-rally-caution-51633620422?mod=hp_LATEST","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1192810083","content_text":"Trigger warning for Apple bulls: I’m about to address the case for caution on the stock.\nBernstein analyst Toni Sacconaghi lays out the case in a research note on Thursday. He focus on the most basic question for Apple (ticker:AAPL) shares: What can drive the stock higher from here?\nSacconaghi points out that Apple has re-rated over the last two years from a below-market multiple to one trading at a 24% premium to the market. Apple traded at a discount to the market from 2013 to 2019, he notes. Apple now trades at a forward P/E of 26 times, he writes, “elevated” relative to historic norms.\nThe analyst starts by reviewing the bull case for the stock. He notes that Apple fans say the company has a leverageable consumer brand that will allow Apple to both increase prices and enter new categories, like cars and artificial reality headsets.\nApple bulls see the installed base of 1.65 billion devices offering ample room to deliver new services, including advertising, and possibly even social media. Not least, Sacconaghi writes, bulls see potential for higher gross margins as services become a higher percentage of the company’s revenue mix, creating the potential for consistent double-digit per-share earnings growth.\nBut Sacconaghi counters that he sees limited room for earnings growth in the September 2022 fiscal year given a likely pullback in growth across the product line. His current model projects revenue for FY 2022 declining slightly from the current year.\nIn his view, the most likely source of further gains in Apple shares in the near term would have to come from further multiple expansion. He thinks that’s possible if the iPhone 13 cycle is stronger than expected, Apple sets an aggressive new goal on services revenue growth or begins offering its products as a service. (But he’s not betting on it.)\nSacconaghi also asserts that Apple’s current valuation is “relatively full,” trading inline to higher than other tech megacaps, in particular Facebook (FB) and Alphabet (GOOGL), which as he notes have both better expected growth rates and higher margins.\n“Looked at another way, close to 100% of revenue from Alphabet and Facebook have financial characteristics of Apple’s attractive services business,” which is about 20% of the company’s overall revenue, but Apple trades at a similar multiple to Alphabet and a premium to Facebook.\nSacconaghi thinks long-term Apple is likely to be a low-to-mid single digit grower. His view is that 70% of the revenue base – iPhone, Mac and iPad – are unlikely to show any long-term growth. He sees new products growth in the 15% range, and projects 15% growth for the services business, generating a blended long-term growth rate in the 4% to 5% range. (Note that as recently as FY 2019, Apple reported a slight revenue decline.)\nConcludes Sacconaghi: Given Apple’s relatively high valuation and the probability that tha the company will struggle to grow in fiscal 2022, the current risk-reward on the stock is “neutral to slightly negative.”\nAmid a broad market rally, Apple shares rose 0.9%, to $143.29.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1035,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":345420504,"gmtCreate":1618331959608,"gmtModify":1634293642107,"author":{"id":"3574857466681989","authorId":"3574857466681989","name":"Caffiend","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c39695ca395c2f9b8200d3efb630a65d","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3574857466681989","idStr":"3574857466681989"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"yes","listText":"yes","text":"yes","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/345420504","repostId":"1194635432","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1194635432","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1618236146,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1194635432?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-04-12 22:02","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Can You Make Coin Investing In Coinbase?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1194635432","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"SummaryCoinbase's current valuation is unjustified due to 2 fundamental risks: the hostility of the ","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p><ul><li>Coinbase's current valuation is unjustified due to 2 fundamental risks: the hostility of the US regulatory landscape towards centralized exchanges, and the widening gap in a winner-takes-all market.</li><li>With coin listings being one of the core competitive advantages of an exchange, Coinbase has the 2nd smallest coin listings among the top 10 exchanges as a result of regulations.</li><li>Widening gap between Coinbase (ranked 2nd) and Binance (ranked 1st) in terms of coin listings and trading volume is evidence of a winner-takes-all market, Coinbase is on the losing side.</li><li>Marginal revenue growth, decline in profitability, and decline in the overall growth stock valuations further plague Coinbase's investment value proposition.</li></ul><p>I remember the early days of cryptocurrency when Binance andCoinbase (COIN) were competing for the top spot as an exchange. If you've traded cryptocurrencies in the US, you have probably used or heard ofCoinbase. Now thatCoinbase is going public, should you invest in the company?</p><p>At first glance, this investment value proposition seemed compelling since the overall cryptocurrency industry is growing rapidly. However, I have found evidence of 2 fundamental risks toCoinbase's growth that could not justify its current valuation and could even undermine its future growth. Recentreportsmay also express agreement asCoinbase's IPO valuation dropped from $100bn to $68bn.</p><p><b>Fundamental Risks 1: The US Regulatory Landscape</b></p><p>The US regulatory landscape is not friendly to centralized exchanges in a way that massively dampenedCoinbase's competitive advantages, one of which is coin listings.</p><p>Coinbase has the 2nd smallest coin listings</p><p>Coin listing is one of the most crucial criteria for a trader/investor when choosing an exchange. Traders/investors require a large number of coin listings to speculate on small-cap altcoins for 10x-100x return. The more coins listed, the more opportunities and choices. I personally use several exchanges for this very reason other than unique features such as staking and etc. The 6 exchanges I use are Binance, Crypto.com, KuCoin, Bkex, PoloniEx, and MXC Pro.</p><p>Why do I use multiple exchanges? Let me illustrate via an example. KuCoin listed Orion(NYSE:ORN)in July 2020 at $1, about 2 months earlier than Binance in October 2020. I bought ORN through KuCoin on its first day at $1.1 and staked it at >20% APY interest. When Binance announced it was listing ORN, its priced spiked upwards. On ORN's first trading day on Binance, ORN's price spiked up as high as $4++ (it is a common occurrence for a token to spike when it is listed in a new exchange). I redeemed my ORN from staking and sold it at $3.60. This transaction earned me more than 300% return. Therefore, the more coins listed, the more opportunities I'll have to replicate this particular transaction to other small-cap altcoins.</p><p>SinceCoinbase's coin listing is small, traders/investors like myself will find it difficult to find these kinds of opportunities. Furthermore, many of the largest-cap coins are not listed onCoinbase. This is one of the main reasons why I did not useCoinbase; I theorize that many traders/investors like myself feel that way. (Let me know in the comments.)</p><p>In a recent lawsuit, a man claiming to beCoinbase's client capitalized on the legal battle between Ripple Labs’ battle and U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), suedCoinbase for selling XRP tokens and sought compensations and other relief. According to CoinMarketCap.com, XRP is no longer listed onCoinbase. However, it is listed on more than500 other centralized exchanges(excluding decentralized exchanges) that are much smaller thanCoinbase outside the US.</p><p>XRP is the 7th biggest cryptocurrency by market cap as of the time of writing. Many other top cryptocurrencies are also not found onCoinbase, such as BNB (ranked 3rd), ADA (ranked 4th), DOT (ranked 6th). Amongthe 10 highest-rated centralized exchanges(refer to Table 1), only Bitstamp (18) offers fewer cryptocurrencies thanCoinbase (49), while the market leader (Binance) ledCoinbase by 700% in coin listings.</p><p>Since regulation can directly affect coin listings, a competitive advantage of an exchange,Coinbase already faces overwhelming challenges to compete on this front alone.</p><p>Table 1: Top 10 Spot Exchange Ranked by CoinMarketCap Ratings.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5bf68da62452a794c5daaa60ac989840\" tg-width=\"554\" tg-height=\"576\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Source: Table created by Author fromCoinMarketCap</p><p><b>Other Regulatory Risks</b></p><p>Regulatory risks extend beyond coin listings and the US.Coinbase offers its services to52 countries. If any of the 52 countries ban crypto assets, its revenue would be adversely affected. It is not uncommon for centralized exchanges to relocate to another country due to regulations. While India isplotting a move to ban cryptocurrencies, many exchanges apply forlicenses to move out from India.</p><p>Statistically speaking, 108 exchangesshut downin 2020, compared to 81 in 2019. At least 3 are shut down by government(s) in 2020, and at least 2 in 2019.</p><p>Although it seems unlikely for the US to follow China's and India's footsteps to drastically ban crypto-assets now, regulatory risks remain major risks toCoinbase.</p><p><b>Fundamental Risk 2: Losing a Winner-Takes-All Market</b></p><p>There are 2 types of crypto exchanges: centralized and decentralized. Both have pros and cons. The best known centralized exchange is Binance, while the best known decentralized exchange is Uniswap. Although centralized exchanges may require a license by a governing body, decentralized exchanges might not, as decentralized exchanges can have avarying degree of centralized components. Both centralized and decentralized exchanges have their respective roles in the crypto ecosystem, hence I think that both are here to stay.</p><p>Many of the decentralized exchange source codes are open source (full listshere). In other words, virtually anyone can develop and host a decentralized exchange. This implies a shallow barrier to entry. Uniswap is the market leader in the decentralized exchange space. Itrecordedmore than $58bn volume in 2020, up 15,000% from 2019. Note that Uniswap wasfirst launchedin November 2018, compared toCoinbase in 2012.</p><p>On the other hand, Binance, the market leader in the centralized exchange space, recorded a total of$1.417 trillion spot trading volume in 2020, an increase of 36% from 2019. This figure does not even include other trading volumes, such as options, futures, margin, and other services, which amounted to $1.7 trillion, a 2800% increase from 2019.</p><p>In comparison,Coinbase only recorded $445bn total trading volume in 2020, a 39% increase in 2019. This is evidence that the market leader is pulling away, implying a winner-takes-all market. This becomes evident by referring to Table 1, where the market leader has more than 10 times the trading value than the 2nd place (Coinbase).</p><p>Furthermore, many traditional financial, non-financial international corporations and fintech companies are also participating in the competition. One of the latest addition is ApplePay.ApplePaynow has official support for cryptocurrencies, with GooglePay and SamsungPay to follow suit. Other note-worthy companies include Square, Paypal, and Visa.</p><p>In my opinion,Coinbase looks to be on the losing side if this market is indeed a winner-takes-all market. Further,Coinbase could be losing market more market share as more competition arises.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/01ca6dafd2b567bd920c5e9f8edc8fbb\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"202\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Source:BusinessofApps</p><p><b>Valuation</b></p><p>The tables below showed thatCoinbase's profit margin is healthy at 28% in 2020. Revenue growth rate compounds at approximately 7% annually from 2017-2020, but profits declined.</p><p>Coinbase's valuation in 2017 remains the most attractive, at 1.725 P/S (Price-to-Sales ratio) and 4.21 P/E (Price-to-Earnings ratio). Earlier this month,Coinbase's IPO valuation is pegged at$100bn. However, recent reports indicated a decrease inCoinbase's IPO valuation to$68bn.At a valuation of $100bn and $68bn,Coinbase is valued at approximately 333 P/E and 211 P/E respectively, or approximately 87.7 P/S and 59.65 P/S respectively.</p><p>Coinbase's valuation in 2020 is a far cry from 2017. Perhaps,Coinbase is pushing for its IPO to cash in on the overall stock market's high valuation.</p><p>Nevertheless, considering the 2 fundamental risks outlined above, marginal revenue growth and declined profits,Coinbase is overvalued at the current valuation in my opinion. The current decline in growth stocks further deterioratesCoinbase's investment value proposition.</p><p>Table 3:Coinbase's Revenue from 2016-2020<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/de8396c363230e04130e43f63d653956\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"231\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Source:BusinessofApps</p><p>Table 4:Coinbase's Profit from 2016-2020<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/be2327ad800bd3524a3aaa57e3a0b17f\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"208\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Source:BusinessofApps</p><p>Table 5:Coinbase's Historical Valuations<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4b1fd86395ee1b0e38f1f6fd472f84bd\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"159\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Source:BusinessofApps</p><p><b>Verdict</b></p><p>In my opinion, the current valuation ofCoinbase couldn't be justified even though the crypto industry is growing rapidly in general. This is down toCoinbase's 2 fundamental risks outlined in this article, marginal growth, sky-high valuation, and the decline in the growth stocks.</p><p>The reason I retain a neutral outlook onCoinbase is the overall outlook of the industry. On the other hand, we can participate in Binance, the market leader in the centralized exchange space, to maximize investment growth. Although Binance is not publicly traded, we can participate in its growth by buying its platform token (BNB).Binance uses part of its profitsto buy back its platform token (BNB)periodically. This results in a gradual increase in its token's price, a similar effect of shares buyback. Hence, I participate in Binance's growth by buying BNB, which saw a 670% YTD return.</p>","source":"seekingalpha","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Can You Make Coin Investing In Coinbase?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nCan You Make Coin Investing In Coinbase?\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-04-12 22:02 GMT+8 <a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4416527-coinbase-path-to-moon-will-be-bumpy-one><strong>seekingalpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>SummaryCoinbase's current valuation is unjustified due to 2 fundamental risks: the hostility of the US regulatory landscape towards centralized exchanges, and the widening gap in a winner-takes-all ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4416527-coinbase-path-to-moon-will-be-bumpy-one\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"COIN":"Coinbase Global, Inc."},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4416527-coinbase-path-to-moon-will-be-bumpy-one","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/5a36db9d73b4222bc376d24ccc48c8a4","article_id":"1194635432","content_text":"SummaryCoinbase's current valuation is unjustified due to 2 fundamental risks: the hostility of the US regulatory landscape towards centralized exchanges, and the widening gap in a winner-takes-all market.With coin listings being one of the core competitive advantages of an exchange, Coinbase has the 2nd smallest coin listings among the top 10 exchanges as a result of regulations.Widening gap between Coinbase (ranked 2nd) and Binance (ranked 1st) in terms of coin listings and trading volume is evidence of a winner-takes-all market, Coinbase is on the losing side.Marginal revenue growth, decline in profitability, and decline in the overall growth stock valuations further plague Coinbase's investment value proposition.I remember the early days of cryptocurrency when Binance andCoinbase (COIN) were competing for the top spot as an exchange. If you've traded cryptocurrencies in the US, you have probably used or heard ofCoinbase. Now thatCoinbase is going public, should you invest in the company?At first glance, this investment value proposition seemed compelling since the overall cryptocurrency industry is growing rapidly. However, I have found evidence of 2 fundamental risks toCoinbase's growth that could not justify its current valuation and could even undermine its future growth. Recentreportsmay also express agreement asCoinbase's IPO valuation dropped from $100bn to $68bn.Fundamental Risks 1: The US Regulatory LandscapeThe US regulatory landscape is not friendly to centralized exchanges in a way that massively dampenedCoinbase's competitive advantages, one of which is coin listings.Coinbase has the 2nd smallest coin listingsCoin listing is one of the most crucial criteria for a trader/investor when choosing an exchange. Traders/investors require a large number of coin listings to speculate on small-cap altcoins for 10x-100x return. The more coins listed, the more opportunities and choices. I personally use several exchanges for this very reason other than unique features such as staking and etc. The 6 exchanges I use are Binance, Crypto.com, KuCoin, Bkex, PoloniEx, and MXC Pro.Why do I use multiple exchanges? Let me illustrate via an example. KuCoin listed Orion(NYSE:ORN)in July 2020 at $1, about 2 months earlier than Binance in October 2020. I bought ORN through KuCoin on its first day at $1.1 and staked it at >20% APY interest. When Binance announced it was listing ORN, its priced spiked upwards. On ORN's first trading day on Binance, ORN's price spiked up as high as $4++ (it is a common occurrence for a token to spike when it is listed in a new exchange). I redeemed my ORN from staking and sold it at $3.60. This transaction earned me more than 300% return. Therefore, the more coins listed, the more opportunities I'll have to replicate this particular transaction to other small-cap altcoins.SinceCoinbase's coin listing is small, traders/investors like myself will find it difficult to find these kinds of opportunities. Furthermore, many of the largest-cap coins are not listed onCoinbase. This is one of the main reasons why I did not useCoinbase; I theorize that many traders/investors like myself feel that way. (Let me know in the comments.)In a recent lawsuit, a man claiming to beCoinbase's client capitalized on the legal battle between Ripple Labs’ battle and U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), suedCoinbase for selling XRP tokens and sought compensations and other relief. According to CoinMarketCap.com, XRP is no longer listed onCoinbase. However, it is listed on more than500 other centralized exchanges(excluding decentralized exchanges) that are much smaller thanCoinbase outside the US.XRP is the 7th biggest cryptocurrency by market cap as of the time of writing. Many other top cryptocurrencies are also not found onCoinbase, such as BNB (ranked 3rd), ADA (ranked 4th), DOT (ranked 6th). Amongthe 10 highest-rated centralized exchanges(refer to Table 1), only Bitstamp (18) offers fewer cryptocurrencies thanCoinbase (49), while the market leader (Binance) ledCoinbase by 700% in coin listings.Since regulation can directly affect coin listings, a competitive advantage of an exchange,Coinbase already faces overwhelming challenges to compete on this front alone.Table 1: Top 10 Spot Exchange Ranked by CoinMarketCap Ratings.Source: Table created by Author fromCoinMarketCapOther Regulatory RisksRegulatory risks extend beyond coin listings and the US.Coinbase offers its services to52 countries. If any of the 52 countries ban crypto assets, its revenue would be adversely affected. It is not uncommon for centralized exchanges to relocate to another country due to regulations. While India isplotting a move to ban cryptocurrencies, many exchanges apply forlicenses to move out from India.Statistically speaking, 108 exchangesshut downin 2020, compared to 81 in 2019. At least 3 are shut down by government(s) in 2020, and at least 2 in 2019.Although it seems unlikely for the US to follow China's and India's footsteps to drastically ban crypto-assets now, regulatory risks remain major risks toCoinbase.Fundamental Risk 2: Losing a Winner-Takes-All MarketThere are 2 types of crypto exchanges: centralized and decentralized. Both have pros and cons. The best known centralized exchange is Binance, while the best known decentralized exchange is Uniswap. Although centralized exchanges may require a license by a governing body, decentralized exchanges might not, as decentralized exchanges can have avarying degree of centralized components. Both centralized and decentralized exchanges have their respective roles in the crypto ecosystem, hence I think that both are here to stay.Many of the decentralized exchange source codes are open source (full listshere). In other words, virtually anyone can develop and host a decentralized exchange. This implies a shallow barrier to entry. Uniswap is the market leader in the decentralized exchange space. Itrecordedmore than $58bn volume in 2020, up 15,000% from 2019. Note that Uniswap wasfirst launchedin November 2018, compared toCoinbase in 2012.On the other hand, Binance, the market leader in the centralized exchange space, recorded a total of$1.417 trillion spot trading volume in 2020, an increase of 36% from 2019. This figure does not even include other trading volumes, such as options, futures, margin, and other services, which amounted to $1.7 trillion, a 2800% increase from 2019.In comparison,Coinbase only recorded $445bn total trading volume in 2020, a 39% increase in 2019. This is evidence that the market leader is pulling away, implying a winner-takes-all market. This becomes evident by referring to Table 1, where the market leader has more than 10 times the trading value than the 2nd place (Coinbase).Furthermore, many traditional financial, non-financial international corporations and fintech companies are also participating in the competition. One of the latest addition is ApplePay.ApplePaynow has official support for cryptocurrencies, with GooglePay and SamsungPay to follow suit. Other note-worthy companies include Square, Paypal, and Visa.In my opinion,Coinbase looks to be on the losing side if this market is indeed a winner-takes-all market. Further,Coinbase could be losing market more market share as more competition arises.Source:BusinessofAppsValuationThe tables below showed thatCoinbase's profit margin is healthy at 28% in 2020. Revenue growth rate compounds at approximately 7% annually from 2017-2020, but profits declined.Coinbase's valuation in 2017 remains the most attractive, at 1.725 P/S (Price-to-Sales ratio) and 4.21 P/E (Price-to-Earnings ratio). Earlier this month,Coinbase's IPO valuation is pegged at$100bn. However, recent reports indicated a decrease inCoinbase's IPO valuation to$68bn.At a valuation of $100bn and $68bn,Coinbase is valued at approximately 333 P/E and 211 P/E respectively, or approximately 87.7 P/S and 59.65 P/S respectively.Coinbase's valuation in 2020 is a far cry from 2017. Perhaps,Coinbase is pushing for its IPO to cash in on the overall stock market's high valuation.Nevertheless, considering the 2 fundamental risks outlined above, marginal revenue growth and declined profits,Coinbase is overvalued at the current valuation in my opinion. The current decline in growth stocks further deterioratesCoinbase's investment value proposition.Table 3:Coinbase's Revenue from 2016-2020Source:BusinessofAppsTable 4:Coinbase's Profit from 2016-2020Source:BusinessofAppsTable 5:Coinbase's Historical ValuationsSource:BusinessofAppsVerdictIn my opinion, the current valuation ofCoinbase couldn't be justified even though the crypto industry is growing rapidly in general. This is down toCoinbase's 2 fundamental risks outlined in this article, marginal growth, sky-high valuation, and the decline in the growth stocks.The reason I retain a neutral outlook onCoinbase is the overall outlook of the industry. On the other hand, we can participate in Binance, the market leader in the centralized exchange space, to maximize investment growth. Although Binance is not publicly traded, we can participate in its growth by buying its platform token (BNB).Binance uses part of its profitsto buy back its platform token (BNB)periodically. This results in a gradual increase in its token's price, a similar effect of shares buyback. Hence, I participate in Binance's growth by buying BNB, which saw a 670% YTD return.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":198,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}
