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Bobruan
2021-12-06
最要换的人还是张勇,没有进取心,战略频频失误。
张勇宣布阿里巴巴升级“多元化治理”
Bobruan
2021-12-02
阿里的云计算还是可以的,就算阿里的所有业务归零,单凭云计算也可以估值3000亿美金
芒格错付阿里巴巴?
Bobruan
2021-11-26
那其实阿里真的不差
拼多多三季度营收215.1亿元,市场预期264.74亿元
Bobruan
2021-10-07
可能是电动车多了,用电量增加了,以前没有电动车的时候,很少听到要限电的,假如电动车不断增加,到时缺电会越来越频繁
老虎盘前观察: 新能源是国内电荒的罪魁祸首?
Bobruan
2021-08-03
the cloud only grew 29%?It is too bad.
Alibaba EPS beats by RMB2.27, misses on revenue
Bobruan
2021-07-11
主要是阿里的自大和强势造成的。
抱歉,原内容已删除
Bobruan
2021-07-03
如果阿里还是以电商的思维来做本地生活,那么结局只有是失败收场。 阿里如果想把本地生活搞起,必须从外面请人,内部的人没有一个可以搞得好。因为电商的思维和基因已经深深的刻在每一个阿里人的身上了,但本地生活的逻辑似电商却是非电商,所以,如果是电商思维的管理者必须不能重用在本地生活里。 你看美团的地推人员的人数和能力就知道了,本地生活讲究的是陆战和巷战能力,必须靠人走到每个城市每个店铺里面去。你问问阿里现在的管理层有多少是搞地推和销售出身的,他们有多少实战经验。 阿里的电商和云计算为什么成功,就是因为是打出来的,实战出来的和满腔热血奋斗出来的,但在本地生活里,阿里的管理层有谁搞过本地生活业务,有谁真正的下沉到市场里去搏杀过,有谁还有那种满腔热血士气高昂的创业心态? 所以,阿里搞本地生活就像是富二代创业,没有思想压力,没有资金压力,没有激情,虽有野心,但却没有认真去认识自己的不足和没有明确的目标,一味靠砸钱。 如果其它公司也有阿里这样的雄厚资金来搞本地生活的话,任何一家都会比阿里搞得好,因为阿里太骄傲和太有钱了,所以阿里如果没有一批能真正懂本地生活业务的管理人才情况下,如果能成功的话那真的是太阳从西边出了。 如果阿里继续以搞大文娱的那一套来搞本地生活的话那只能是死路一条。不停换帅的军队带来的后果是必然是军心散涣。阿里的本地生活想要搞好,必须脱离阿里,成为一个独立公司,由阿里以外的人来管理,只要是阿里内部的人碰本地生活的业务,谁碰谁倒霉。
抱歉,原内容已删除
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08:30","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"张勇宣布阿里巴巴升级“多元化治理”","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1194795284","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"12月6日消息,阿里巴巴董事会主席兼CEO张勇发出内部信,宣布公司升级“多元化治理”体系,任命戴珊和蒋凡分别负责新设立的“中国数字商业”和“海外数字商业”两大板块。\n戴珊作为集团总裁,将代表阿里巴巴集","content":"<p>12月6日消息,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BABA\">阿里巴巴</a>董事会主席兼CEO张勇发出内部信,宣布公司升级“多元化治理”体系,任命戴珊和蒋凡分别负责新设立的“中国数字商业”和“海外数字商业”两大板块。</p>\n<p>戴珊作为集团总裁,将代表阿里巴巴集团分管大淘宝(包括淘宝、天猫、阿里妈妈),B2C零售事业群,淘菜菜,淘特和1688等业务,共同形成“中国数字商业板块”。</p>\n<p>蒋凡作为集团总裁,将代表阿里巴巴集团分管全球速卖通和国际贸易(ICBU) 两个海外业务,以及 Lazada 等面向海外市场的多家子公司,共同形成“海外数字商业板块”。</p>\n<p>在内部信中,张勇表示,进行多元化治理体系升级,是为了在各个业务领域用更清晰的战略蓝图、更敏捷的组织面向未来,真正创造长期价值。内需、全球化和云计算是阿里巴巴的三大战略,而张勇自 2015 年担任 CEO 以来,始终倡导以敏捷组织理念,指导内部生产关系调整,以适应阿里巴巴多特质业务向前发展的需要。此次有针对性的组织架构调整,释放出阿里进一步发力内需和海外业务的信号。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2ddc2b6e140f1114f195ed5aacefbe51\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"480\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>阿里同时宣布,武卫将从2022年3月31日起不再担任集团首席财务官(CFO),届时由集团副首席财务官(副 CFO)徐宏(Toby)接任,武卫将继续担任集团执行董事,并担任集团董事会下设的可持续发展委员会成员。张勇在内部信中以“卓越的历史贡献”一词,充分肯定了武卫过去15年的工作和为阿里巴巴作出的成绩。他同时表示,自己从几年前就开始和武卫共同筹划CFO接班人计划,今天交接班的条件已经成熟。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/63ca3fabcfab6d8a4bba7d2ad935201f\" tg-width=\"806\" tg-height=\"813\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>张勇表示,随着阿里巴巴集团形成多业务引擎驱动未来增长的格局,“多元化治理”将成为集团全新的组织战略。阿里巴巴希望通过更多新型治理方式的探索,始终用生产关系的先进性来驱动先进生产力的释放,用组织的创新去驱动业务的创新。</p>\n<p><b>内部信全文:</b></p>\n<p>做好自己,风雨同行</p>\n<p>各位阿里人,</p>\n<p>临近年底,又到了我们调整自身再出发的时刻。必须承认,这是充满挑战的一年,也是我们更好融入社会发展大趋势,开始自我变革的一年。我们取得一定进展,但也面临着很多挑战。在大的周期变化中,为了进一步升级我们的多元化治理体系,在各个业务领域用更清晰的战略蓝图、更敏捷的组织面向未来,真正创造长期价值,集团现决定:</p>\n<p>戴珊(苏荃)作为集团总裁,将代表集团分管大淘宝(包括淘宝、天猫、阿里妈妈),B2C 零售,淘菜菜,淘特和国内贸易(CBU)等一层组织,共同形成“中国数字商业板块”。面对越来越激烈的竞争格局,我们必须决策更高效,行动更统一,各个一层组织之间的定位和分工更明确。期待戴珊基于深厚的市场经验、杰出的领导力以及独特的女性体验视角,继续发挥阿里巴巴在中国消费领域的引领角色。</p>\n<p>蒋凡作为集团总裁,将代表集团分管全球速卖通(AliExpress)和国际贸易(ICBU)两个海外业务的一层组织,以及 Lazada 等面向海外市场的多家子公司,共同形成“海外数字商业板块”。过去几年,阿里巴巴海外市场增长迅速,海外年度活跃消费者已达 2.85 亿,但距离成为一家真正意义上的全球化公司,距离在潜力广阔的海外市场有更大作为,我们还有很长的路要走,为此,我们需要形成面向海外市场的整体战略蓝图和组织保障,坚定前行。蒋凡在大淘宝七年时间,为淘宝的无线化、个性化和内容化发展做出了重要的贡献,期待蒋凡带领团队在海外市场发展中实现更多创新。</p>\n<p>2015 年起开始施行的“中台战略”,是过去几年集团最重要的组织战略。随着整个集团正在形成多业务引擎驱动未来增长的格局,面向未来,“多元化治理”将成为集团全新的组织战略。我们希望通过更多新型治理方式的探索,始终用生产关系的先进性来驱动先进生产力的释放,用组织的创新去驱动业务的创新。</p>\n<p>上述任命将于 2022 年 1 月 1 日起正式生效。</p>\n<p>Michael Evans 作为集团总裁,将同时负责“阿里巴巴海外商务代表团队”(AGB),“国际知识产权保护”(IPR)和“海外公共事务”(IGR)等部门,在加强阿里巴巴海外市场的沟通和合作上扮演更重要的角色。该任命此前已生效。</p>\n<p>2022 年 4 月 1 日起,武卫(Maggie)将不再担任集团首席财务官(CFO),并由集团副首席财务官(副 CFO)徐宏(Toby)接任。武卫将继续担任集团执行董事,并担任集团董事会下设的可持续发展委员会成员。</p>\n<p>加入阿里巴巴近 15 年以来,Maggie 作为 CFO 参与领导了从阿里巴巴 B2B 公司到阿里巴巴集团先后三次的成功上市,并组建和培养了一支具有高度专业能力和素养的财务团队,成为阿里战略落地、业务发展的坚强支撑。面对资本市场、国际环境、宏观局势的起起伏伏,她始终荣辱不惊,为人谦逊、坚韧,是我一路以来无可替代的亲密战友,也是很多核心管理团队成员的知心姐姐,为阿里巴巴走到今天做出了卓越的历史贡献。CFO 接班人计划,是我和 Maggie 几年前就开始共同筹划的事情,我们认为今天的交接班条件已经成熟。市场永远有起起落落,但是我们所做的事业是长期的,管理层的接力是为了保证阿里长远持久地跑下去。Maggie 今后也会用另一个身份,更好地支持和帮助我和团队一起完成使命。</p>\n<p>Maggie 和 Toby 的交接也体现了阿里巴巴传承有序的传统。三年前,Toby 从普华永道加入阿里巴巴,并在两年前成为集团副 CFO。面对不断变化的业务类型,Toby 迅速展现出杰出的专业能力和领导力。至今,Toby 已经逐步担起了集团财务管理以及战略投资工作的重担。我们有充分的理由相信,Toby 可以很好地承担起下一任阿里集团 CFO 的职责,与集团核心管理班子一起,带领团队走向下一阶段的成功。</p>\n<p>对于 22 岁的阿里巴巴,这又是一个全新的开始,是我们面向未来坚定变革的新起点。各位阿里人,让我们一起做好自己,风雨同行!</p>\n<p>张勇(逍遥子)</p>\n<p>阿里巴巴集团董事会主席兼首席执行官</p>\n<p>2021 年 12 月 6 日</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>张勇宣布阿里巴巴升级“多元化治理”</title>\n<style 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}\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n张勇宣布阿里巴巴升级“多元化治理”\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2021-12-06 08:30</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>12月6日消息,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BABA\">阿里巴巴</a>董事会主席兼CEO张勇发出内部信,宣布公司升级“多元化治理”体系,任命戴珊和蒋凡分别负责新设立的“中国数字商业”和“海外数字商业”两大板块。</p>\n<p>戴珊作为集团总裁,将代表阿里巴巴集团分管大淘宝(包括淘宝、天猫、阿里妈妈),B2C零售事业群,淘菜菜,淘特和1688等业务,共同形成“中国数字商业板块”。</p>\n<p>蒋凡作为集团总裁,将代表阿里巴巴集团分管全球速卖通和国际贸易(ICBU) 两个海外业务,以及 Lazada 等面向海外市场的多家子公司,共同形成“海外数字商业板块”。</p>\n<p>在内部信中,张勇表示,进行多元化治理体系升级,是为了在各个业务领域用更清晰的战略蓝图、更敏捷的组织面向未来,真正创造长期价值。内需、全球化和云计算是阿里巴巴的三大战略,而张勇自 2015 年担任 CEO 以来,始终倡导以敏捷组织理念,指导内部生产关系调整,以适应阿里巴巴多特质业务向前发展的需要。此次有针对性的组织架构调整,释放出阿里进一步发力内需和海外业务的信号。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2ddc2b6e140f1114f195ed5aacefbe51\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"480\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>阿里同时宣布,武卫将从2022年3月31日起不再担任集团首席财务官(CFO),届时由集团副首席财务官(副 CFO)徐宏(Toby)接任,武卫将继续担任集团执行董事,并担任集团董事会下设的可持续发展委员会成员。张勇在内部信中以“卓越的历史贡献”一词,充分肯定了武卫过去15年的工作和为阿里巴巴作出的成绩。他同时表示,自己从几年前就开始和武卫共同筹划CFO接班人计划,今天交接班的条件已经成熟。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/63ca3fabcfab6d8a4bba7d2ad935201f\" tg-width=\"806\" tg-height=\"813\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>张勇表示,随着阿里巴巴集团形成多业务引擎驱动未来增长的格局,“多元化治理”将成为集团全新的组织战略。阿里巴巴希望通过更多新型治理方式的探索,始终用生产关系的先进性来驱动先进生产力的释放,用组织的创新去驱动业务的创新。</p>\n<p><b>内部信全文:</b></p>\n<p>做好自己,风雨同行</p>\n<p>各位阿里人,</p>\n<p>临近年底,又到了我们调整自身再出发的时刻。必须承认,这是充满挑战的一年,也是我们更好融入社会发展大趋势,开始自我变革的一年。我们取得一定进展,但也面临着很多挑战。在大的周期变化中,为了进一步升级我们的多元化治理体系,在各个业务领域用更清晰的战略蓝图、更敏捷的组织面向未来,真正创造长期价值,集团现决定:</p>\n<p>戴珊(苏荃)作为集团总裁,将代表集团分管大淘宝(包括淘宝、天猫、阿里妈妈),B2C 零售,淘菜菜,淘特和国内贸易(CBU)等一层组织,共同形成“中国数字商业板块”。面对越来越激烈的竞争格局,我们必须决策更高效,行动更统一,各个一层组织之间的定位和分工更明确。期待戴珊基于深厚的市场经验、杰出的领导力以及独特的女性体验视角,继续发挥阿里巴巴在中国消费领域的引领角色。</p>\n<p>蒋凡作为集团总裁,将代表集团分管全球速卖通(AliExpress)和国际贸易(ICBU)两个海外业务的一层组织,以及 Lazada 等面向海外市场的多家子公司,共同形成“海外数字商业板块”。过去几年,阿里巴巴海外市场增长迅速,海外年度活跃消费者已达 2.85 亿,但距离成为一家真正意义上的全球化公司,距离在潜力广阔的海外市场有更大作为,我们还有很长的路要走,为此,我们需要形成面向海外市场的整体战略蓝图和组织保障,坚定前行。蒋凡在大淘宝七年时间,为淘宝的无线化、个性化和内容化发展做出了重要的贡献,期待蒋凡带领团队在海外市场发展中实现更多创新。</p>\n<p>2015 年起开始施行的“中台战略”,是过去几年集团最重要的组织战略。随着整个集团正在形成多业务引擎驱动未来增长的格局,面向未来,“多元化治理”将成为集团全新的组织战略。我们希望通过更多新型治理方式的探索,始终用生产关系的先进性来驱动先进生产力的释放,用组织的创新去驱动业务的创新。</p>\n<p>上述任命将于 2022 年 1 月 1 日起正式生效。</p>\n<p>Michael Evans 作为集团总裁,将同时负责“阿里巴巴海外商务代表团队”(AGB),“国际知识产权保护”(IPR)和“海外公共事务”(IGR)等部门,在加强阿里巴巴海外市场的沟通和合作上扮演更重要的角色。该任命此前已生效。</p>\n<p>2022 年 4 月 1 日起,武卫(Maggie)将不再担任集团首席财务官(CFO),并由集团副首席财务官(副 CFO)徐宏(Toby)接任。武卫将继续担任集团执行董事,并担任集团董事会下设的可持续发展委员会成员。</p>\n<p>加入阿里巴巴近 15 年以来,Maggie 作为 CFO 参与领导了从阿里巴巴 B2B 公司到阿里巴巴集团先后三次的成功上市,并组建和培养了一支具有高度专业能力和素养的财务团队,成为阿里战略落地、业务发展的坚强支撑。面对资本市场、国际环境、宏观局势的起起伏伏,她始终荣辱不惊,为人谦逊、坚韧,是我一路以来无可替代的亲密战友,也是很多核心管理团队成员的知心姐姐,为阿里巴巴走到今天做出了卓越的历史贡献。CFO 接班人计划,是我和 Maggie 几年前就开始共同筹划的事情,我们认为今天的交接班条件已经成熟。市场永远有起起落落,但是我们所做的事业是长期的,管理层的接力是为了保证阿里长远持久地跑下去。Maggie 今后也会用另一个身份,更好地支持和帮助我和团队一起完成使命。</p>\n<p>Maggie 和 Toby 的交接也体现了阿里巴巴传承有序的传统。三年前,Toby 从普华永道加入阿里巴巴,并在两年前成为集团副 CFO。面对不断变化的业务类型,Toby 迅速展现出杰出的专业能力和领导力。至今,Toby 已经逐步担起了集团财务管理以及战略投资工作的重担。我们有充分的理由相信,Toby 可以很好地承担起下一任阿里集团 CFO 的职责,与集团核心管理班子一起,带领团队走向下一阶段的成功。</p>\n<p>对于 22 岁的阿里巴巴,这又是一个全新的开始,是我们面向未来坚定变革的新起点。各位阿里人,让我们一起做好自己,风雨同行!</p>\n<p>张勇(逍遥子)</p>\n<p>阿里巴巴集团董事会主席兼首席执行官</p>\n<p>2021 年 12 月 6 日</p>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/38ce24331e38c2fd573aeb0067f50146","relate_stocks":{"09988":"阿里巴巴-W","BABA":"阿里巴巴"},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1194795284","content_text":"12月6日消息,阿里巴巴董事会主席兼CEO张勇发出内部信,宣布公司升级“多元化治理”体系,任命戴珊和蒋凡分别负责新设立的“中国数字商业”和“海外数字商业”两大板块。\n戴珊作为集团总裁,将代表阿里巴巴集团分管大淘宝(包括淘宝、天猫、阿里妈妈),B2C零售事业群,淘菜菜,淘特和1688等业务,共同形成“中国数字商业板块”。\n蒋凡作为集团总裁,将代表阿里巴巴集团分管全球速卖通和国际贸易(ICBU) 两个海外业务,以及 Lazada 等面向海外市场的多家子公司,共同形成“海外数字商业板块”。\n在内部信中,张勇表示,进行多元化治理体系升级,是为了在各个业务领域用更清晰的战略蓝图、更敏捷的组织面向未来,真正创造长期价值。内需、全球化和云计算是阿里巴巴的三大战略,而张勇自 2015 年担任 CEO 以来,始终倡导以敏捷组织理念,指导内部生产关系调整,以适应阿里巴巴多特质业务向前发展的需要。此次有针对性的组织架构调整,释放出阿里进一步发力内需和海外业务的信号。\n\n阿里同时宣布,武卫将从2022年3月31日起不再担任集团首席财务官(CFO),届时由集团副首席财务官(副 CFO)徐宏(Toby)接任,武卫将继续担任集团执行董事,并担任集团董事会下设的可持续发展委员会成员。张勇在内部信中以“卓越的历史贡献”一词,充分肯定了武卫过去15年的工作和为阿里巴巴作出的成绩。他同时表示,自己从几年前就开始和武卫共同筹划CFO接班人计划,今天交接班的条件已经成熟。\n\n张勇表示,随着阿里巴巴集团形成多业务引擎驱动未来增长的格局,“多元化治理”将成为集团全新的组织战略。阿里巴巴希望通过更多新型治理方式的探索,始终用生产关系的先进性来驱动先进生产力的释放,用组织的创新去驱动业务的创新。\n内部信全文:\n做好自己,风雨同行\n各位阿里人,\n临近年底,又到了我们调整自身再出发的时刻。必须承认,这是充满挑战的一年,也是我们更好融入社会发展大趋势,开始自我变革的一年。我们取得一定进展,但也面临着很多挑战。在大的周期变化中,为了进一步升级我们的多元化治理体系,在各个业务领域用更清晰的战略蓝图、更敏捷的组织面向未来,真正创造长期价值,集团现决定:\n戴珊(苏荃)作为集团总裁,将代表集团分管大淘宝(包括淘宝、天猫、阿里妈妈),B2C 零售,淘菜菜,淘特和国内贸易(CBU)等一层组织,共同形成“中国数字商业板块”。面对越来越激烈的竞争格局,我们必须决策更高效,行动更统一,各个一层组织之间的定位和分工更明确。期待戴珊基于深厚的市场经验、杰出的领导力以及独特的女性体验视角,继续发挥阿里巴巴在中国消费领域的引领角色。\n蒋凡作为集团总裁,将代表集团分管全球速卖通(AliExpress)和国际贸易(ICBU)两个海外业务的一层组织,以及 Lazada 等面向海外市场的多家子公司,共同形成“海外数字商业板块”。过去几年,阿里巴巴海外市场增长迅速,海外年度活跃消费者已达 2.85 亿,但距离成为一家真正意义上的全球化公司,距离在潜力广阔的海外市场有更大作为,我们还有很长的路要走,为此,我们需要形成面向海外市场的整体战略蓝图和组织保障,坚定前行。蒋凡在大淘宝七年时间,为淘宝的无线化、个性化和内容化发展做出了重要的贡献,期待蒋凡带领团队在海外市场发展中实现更多创新。\n2015 年起开始施行的“中台战略”,是过去几年集团最重要的组织战略。随着整个集团正在形成多业务引擎驱动未来增长的格局,面向未来,“多元化治理”将成为集团全新的组织战略。我们希望通过更多新型治理方式的探索,始终用生产关系的先进性来驱动先进生产力的释放,用组织的创新去驱动业务的创新。\n上述任命将于 2022 年 1 月 1 日起正式生效。\nMichael Evans 作为集团总裁,将同时负责“阿里巴巴海外商务代表团队”(AGB),“国际知识产权保护”(IPR)和“海外公共事务”(IGR)等部门,在加强阿里巴巴海外市场的沟通和合作上扮演更重要的角色。该任命此前已生效。\n2022 年 4 月 1 日起,武卫(Maggie)将不再担任集团首席财务官(CFO),并由集团副首席财务官(副 CFO)徐宏(Toby)接任。武卫将继续担任集团执行董事,并担任集团董事会下设的可持续发展委员会成员。\n加入阿里巴巴近 15 年以来,Maggie 作为 CFO 参与领导了从阿里巴巴 B2B 公司到阿里巴巴集团先后三次的成功上市,并组建和培养了一支具有高度专业能力和素养的财务团队,成为阿里战略落地、业务发展的坚强支撑。面对资本市场、国际环境、宏观局势的起起伏伏,她始终荣辱不惊,为人谦逊、坚韧,是我一路以来无可替代的亲密战友,也是很多核心管理团队成员的知心姐姐,为阿里巴巴走到今天做出了卓越的历史贡献。CFO 接班人计划,是我和 Maggie 几年前就开始共同筹划的事情,我们认为今天的交接班条件已经成熟。市场永远有起起落落,但是我们所做的事业是长期的,管理层的接力是为了保证阿里长远持久地跑下去。Maggie 今后也会用另一个身份,更好地支持和帮助我和团队一起完成使命。\nMaggie 和 Toby 的交接也体现了阿里巴巴传承有序的传统。三年前,Toby 从普华永道加入阿里巴巴,并在两年前成为集团副 CFO。面对不断变化的业务类型,Toby 迅速展现出杰出的专业能力和领导力。至今,Toby 已经逐步担起了集团财务管理以及战略投资工作的重担。我们有充分的理由相信,Toby 可以很好地承担起下一任阿里集团 CFO 的职责,与集团核心管理班子一起,带领团队走向下一阶段的成功。\n对于 22 岁的阿里巴巴,这又是一个全新的开始,是我们面向未来坚定变革的新起点。各位阿里人,让我们一起做好自己,风雨同行!\n张勇(逍遥子)\n阿里巴巴集团董事会主席兼首席执行官\n2021 年 12 月 6 日","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4010,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":603213864,"gmtCreate":1638412065676,"gmtModify":1638412065676,"author":{"id":"3574026172467169","authorId":"3574026172467169","name":"Bobruan","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3574026172467169","authorIdStr":"3574026172467169"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"阿里的云计算还是可以的,就算阿里的所有业务归零,单凭云计算也可以估值3000亿美金","listText":"阿里的云计算还是可以的,就算阿里的所有业务归零,单凭云计算也可以估值3000亿美金","text":"阿里的云计算还是可以的,就算阿里的所有业务归零,单凭云计算也可以估值3000亿美金","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/603213864","repostId":"2188312530","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2188312530","pubTimestamp":1638325288,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2188312530?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-12-01 10:21","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"芒格错付阿里巴巴?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2188312530","media":"巨潮商业评论","summary":"$阿里巴巴$近期的股价表现也呼应着这一预判:2020年下半年开始的股价回撤,至今甚至已出现了恶化倾向。经过一整年腰斩式下跌之后,阿里巴巴股价的下跌仍在继续,于11月17日出现了跌幅11.13%的大幅单日下跌,并在随后持续下跌接近10%。谁也没想到的是,寒冬中的阿里,最大的温暖竟来自大洋彼岸——对中国企业一直有好感的芒格,通过旗下的Daily Journal买入阿里巴巴并不断增持。","content":"<p>近期<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GS\">高盛</a>在对中国2022年经济发展的研判中预计,明年将是中国除了危机年份之外,历史GDP增速最低的一年(4.8%)。</p>\n<p>一家以“让天下没有难做的生意”为使命的企业,遭遇了天下生意越来越难做的局面,显然不会是什么好事情。</p>\n<p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BABA\">阿里巴巴</a>近期的股价表现也呼应着这一预判:2020年下半年开始的股价回撤,至今甚至已出现了恶化倾向。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f37b8a5cea80d62c9d0ee7f6cf7bfd48\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">阿里巴巴股价表现</p>\n<p>经过一整年腰斩式下跌之后,阿里巴巴股价的下跌仍在继续,于11月17日出现了跌幅11.13%的大幅单日下跌,并在随后持续下跌接近10%。</p>\n<p>中概互联如今的惨状不必细说,而阿里是其中受到政策、产业环境甚至是竞争对手单点狙击最严重的巨头,甚至可以不加之一。<b>包括大量阿里巴巴内部人士在内,已经有不少人对其态度转向悲观。</b></p>\n<p>谁也没想到的是,寒冬中的阿里,最大的温暖竟来自大洋彼岸——对中国企业一直有好感的芒格,通过旗下的Daily Journal买入阿里巴巴并不断增持。</p>\n<p>如果从规模上看,Daily Journal的买入规模其实并不大(相比<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BRK.A\">伯克希尔</a>·哈撒韦),3月持有阿里3750万美元的股票,持仓暴增82.7%后,持仓市值也仅提升至4500万美元。</p>\n<p><b>来自投资泰斗级人物的信心,远比这4500万美元持仓更有价值。</b>但对于芒格来说,即便是4500万美元的持仓也不会轻易买入。Daily Journal的每一笔重仓下注,都暗暗关系到自己的“一世英名”。</p>\n<p>更何况,芒格与巴菲特对待中国企业不同的态度由来已久。</p>\n<h2><b>01 老搭档的态度差异</b></h2>\n<blockquote>\n 除2008年对<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/002594\">比亚迪</a>的投资,以及2003年投资了港股<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/601857\">中国石油</a>之外,巴菲特十多年来没有任何新增投资。\n</blockquote>\n<p>众所周知,芒格本人非常看好比亚迪并毫不吝惜对其的赞赏。今年2月,伴随着比亚迪股价的不断上涨,他再次谈起自己的爱股时,展示出了不同于以往的一面:</p>\n<blockquote>\n 我其实是很少持有像比亚迪这样的股票,(估值)已经高到让你流鼻血的地步。我也是在不断的在学习。我们非常喜欢这家公司,也喜欢管理层,这就是我们的想法,所以我们还是非常忠诚于自己的想法。\n</blockquote>\n<p>出于对比亚迪的认可,芒格甚至强调了自己也在不断的“学习”,<b>这其中暗含的意味不言而喻。</b>而经过了连续两年几乎不断的上涨之后,比亚迪已经排到了伯克希尔·哈撒韦公司持股市值的前列,这是此前从未出现过的事情。</p>\n<p>但巴菲特始终对于中国企业没有太多信任。在过去多年投资方向的拓展中,他先后开始投资科技硬件行业、云计算、新能源等领域,在国别上,介入过德国、韩国和日本等国家的企业,但在<b>中国企业方面,除2008年对比亚迪的投资,以及2003年投资了港股中国石油之外,巴菲特十多年来没有任何新增投资。</b></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/62cacd381b3a2eeb2512d67f98c4f9dd\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00857\">中国石油股份</a>股价表现</p>\n<p>令很多中国价值投资者意难平的是,就连他们心目中与巴菲特价值投资理念最为吻合的茅台,巴菲特也迟迟没有过任何形式的买入操作。</p>\n<p>反而是芒格,通过李录旗下的<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/XIMA\">喜马拉雅</a>基金,间接投资了一些中国的优秀企业,除了比亚迪之外,比较知名的案例还包括了<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/601658\">邮储银行</a>港股。</p>\n<p>巴菲特曾经表示“中国市场很大,有非常多的可能性,如果在中国能找到合适的行业、合适的时间、合适的管理团队,我们会毫不犹豫地投资。”</p>\n<p>但说是一回事,真正投资却又是另外一回事。对比巴菲特对中国企业的态度,更显芒格亲自买入阿里巴巴的难能可贵。</p>\n<h2><b>02 好坏未定的标签</b></h2>\n<blockquote>\n 在政策层面的反垄断之外,来自“市场层面的反垄断”力量甚至更强。\n</blockquote>\n<p>在投资做到一定的阶段之后,高手们的一举一动都被市场所密切关注,并积极寻求效仿的可能。</p>\n<p>最典型者就是高瓴资本在2021年的境遇:任何布局,不论是二级市场买入还是定增还是一级市场投资后的上市,都吸引了大批散户投资者“抄作业”。</p>\n<p>自身对于市场巨大的影响力,也是大佬们面对的压力与风险的一部分:<b>放弃贴在自己身上光辉耀眼的标签是很难的事情,给自己身上贴上一个好坏未定的标签也不容易。</b></p>\n<p>买入阿里巴巴对于芒格来说,就相当于在临近100岁的时候,给自己贴了一个全新的中国互联网标签。</p>\n<p>芒格的投资,对于身处逆境中的阿里来说,是效果卓著的利好。其面向资本市场释放出的价值,远胜CEO张勇接受任何海外媒体的采访。而在账面的盈亏得失之外,芒格却必须为这笔投资付出更大的潜在的声誉风险。</p>\n<p>几乎全球的投资者几乎都已经知道了芒格对阿里巴巴的“重仓买入”(其实只是Daily Journal的重仓),但阿里巴巴所面对的困难却是实实在在的——包括了监管对企业扩张边界的限制,以<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PDD\">拼多多</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DYIN\">抖音</a>、美团为代表的竞争对手的冲击,以及<b>企业文化层面的巨大挑战。</b></p>\n<p>在芒格过去数十年的投资生涯中,他都以“买入优秀公司”闻名于世。在一个艰难不利的环境下投资阿里巴巴,是否会是好的选择?</p>\n<p>至少从2021年的情况来看,这些担忧是被印证的。50%的下跌并没有成为阿里巴巴股价下跌的终点。</p>\n<p>对于阿里来说尤其不利的一点是,在<b>政策层面的反垄断之外,来自“市场力量的反垄断”力量甚至更强。</b>零售行业的新一轮商业模式创新,对于传统电商在资本市场上的估值造成了不利影响。</p>\n<h2><b>03 阿里巴巴重走<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">苹果</a>路?</b></h2>\n<blockquote>\n 如今芒格对阿里巴巴的投资也出现了大幅度的下跌,但这是否意味着未来会如苹果一样被资本市场所重新认知,并恢复上涨?\n</blockquote>\n<p>伯克希尔·哈撒韦投资中国石油和比亚迪,两笔投资双双获得巨大成功。虽然对阿里巴巴的投资仅是在芒格治下不到一亿美元的小账户下进行,但也不免被搬出来比较。</p>\n<p>但三笔投资有着非常明显的不同,甚至可以被归类到三种完全不同的风格逻辑里面:</p>\n<p>对于比亚迪的投资更像是一笔风险投资。在《李录卖飞了比亚迪》一文中,巨潮分析李录在一级市场上有过从业经历,并将这些经验融入到二级市场的投资中,断定王传福是一个“韦尔奇和爱迪生的混合体”,伯克希尔·哈撒韦也因此入股约18亿港元。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f8e6a000959d74932f58d0fd4959ab41\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/01211\">比亚迪股份</a>股价表现</p>\n<p>如今这18亿港元已经变成了将近700亿港元。从投入过程到持股周期到回报数额,这笔投资都有着非常浓厚的早期投资味道,且芒格的介入程度非常高。</p>\n<p>中国石油的投资更像是一笔纯正的巴菲特式投资,买入被低估的周期股投资,当时中国石油港股的市盈率仅有三倍。</p>\n<p>而芒格对于阿里巴巴的投资与这两笔投资都有不同,更接近于巴菲特对苹果公司的投资。对苹果的投资发生于2016年,当时的苹果正处于被资本市场重新认知的阶段——<b>在此之前很长时间,苹果都被认为只是一家硬件企业。</b></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/907bcadec44faf2c2b88b43558032602\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>苹果公司股价表现</p>\n<p>更类似的是,伯克希尔·哈撒韦入股苹果之后,苹果也出现了一波幅度巨大的下跌,以至于有人认为巴菲特的投资失败了。</p>\n<p>如今芒格对阿里巴巴的投资也出现了大幅度的下跌,但这是否意味着未来会如苹果一样被资本市场所重新认知,并恢复上涨?</p>\n<p>芒格的簇拥们、阿里巴巴的股东们都期待着这一天。但如果这笔投资能够最终与伯克希尔·哈撒韦对苹果的投资一样扭转局势,人们需要思考以下的前提条件:</p>\n<blockquote>\n 1.阿里巴巴是否能够在激烈的市场竞争中,给消费者以必选的理由?\n</blockquote>\n<blockquote>\n 2.阿里巴巴是否能够实现估值的提升——从硬件(基础设施)升维到更高层次的、能够被投资者认可并给出高估值的产品?\n</blockquote>\n<blockquote>\n 3.阿里巴巴是否能够在经营层面、管理层面实现顺利平稳的过渡?\n</blockquote>\n<blockquote>\n 4.阿里巴巴是否能够在竞争对手的挑战中越战越勇?\n</blockquote>\n<blockquote>\n 5.阿里巴巴是否能够构筑起被广泛认同的品牌与产品文化?\n</blockquote>\n<p><b>这些问题的回答,会直接展示出阿里巴巴在困境中是否具有足够的韧性</b>,而这些特质要远比一两年内的财务数据是否亮丽更加重要。</p>\n<h2><b>04 写在最后</b></h2>\n<p>芒格本人对于零售企业的投资有很深刻的认知。</p>\n<p>在接受《证券市场红周刊》的采访时,芒格表示自己一生最成功的三笔投资就是巴菲特、Costco、李录。其中Costco就是全球最成功的仓储超市,这家公司及其罕见地在互联网零售企业的冲击中独善其身,2008年以来股价几乎从未下跌,市值已经逼近2500亿元。</p>\n<p>芒格将Costco定位为“通过天才管理成为行业内翘楚的典型”,这与他对王传福的认可有异曲同工之处。</p>\n<p>但芒格曾经评价马云:“我认为马云评论中国政府的做法非常傲慢。这不是马云应该做的。”</p>\n<p>相比之下,<b>他对于中国经济整体的信心更足,也许这才是他选择买入阿里巴巴最核心的原因:</b></p>\n<blockquote>\n “我认为中国人在管理经济方面表现得非常精明,他们在管理经济方面取得了比我们更好的成果,而且我相信他们还能够继续下去。”\n</blockquote>","source":"36kr_stock","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>芒格错付阿里巴巴?</title>\n<style 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}\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n芒格错付阿里巴巴?\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-12-01 10:21 北京时间 <a href=https://36kr.com/p/1508024973938437><strong>巨潮商业评论</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>近期高盛在对中国2022年经济发展的研判中预计,明年将是中国除了危机年份之外,历史GDP增速最低的一年(4.8%)。\n一家以“让天下没有难做的生意”为使命的企业,遭遇了天下生意越来越难做的局面,显然不会是什么好事情。\n阿里巴巴近期的股价表现也呼应着这一预判:2020年下半年开始的股价回撤,至今甚至已出现了恶化倾向。\n阿里巴巴股价表现\n经过一整年腰斩式下跌之后,阿里巴巴股价的下跌仍在继续,于11月...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://36kr.com/p/1508024973938437\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b2e0eb6c0d2386d465d375504e74c84e","relate_stocks":{"BK4554":"元宇宙及AR概念","BABA":"阿里巴巴","BK4531":"中概回港概念","QNETCN":"纳斯达克中美互联网老虎指数","BK4534":"瑞士信贷持仓","BK4533":"AQR资本管理(全球第二大对冲基金)","BK4558":"双十一","BK4524":"宅经济概念","BK4535":"淡马锡持仓","BK4527":"明星科技股","BK4538":"云计算","BK4526":"热门中概股","BK4503":"景林资产持仓","BK4122":"互联网与直销零售","BK4505":"高瓴资本持仓","09988":"阿里巴巴-W","BK4504":"桥水持仓","BK4548":"巴美列捷福持仓","BK4565":"NFT概念"},"source_url":"https://36kr.com/p/1508024973938437","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2188312530","content_text":"近期高盛在对中国2022年经济发展的研判中预计,明年将是中国除了危机年份之外,历史GDP增速最低的一年(4.8%)。\n一家以“让天下没有难做的生意”为使命的企业,遭遇了天下生意越来越难做的局面,显然不会是什么好事情。\n阿里巴巴近期的股价表现也呼应着这一预判:2020年下半年开始的股价回撤,至今甚至已出现了恶化倾向。\n阿里巴巴股价表现\n经过一整年腰斩式下跌之后,阿里巴巴股价的下跌仍在继续,于11月17日出现了跌幅11.13%的大幅单日下跌,并在随后持续下跌接近10%。\n中概互联如今的惨状不必细说,而阿里是其中受到政策、产业环境甚至是竞争对手单点狙击最严重的巨头,甚至可以不加之一。包括大量阿里巴巴内部人士在内,已经有不少人对其态度转向悲观。\n谁也没想到的是,寒冬中的阿里,最大的温暖竟来自大洋彼岸——对中国企业一直有好感的芒格,通过旗下的Daily Journal买入阿里巴巴并不断增持。\n如果从规模上看,Daily Journal的买入规模其实并不大(相比伯克希尔·哈撒韦),3月持有阿里3750万美元的股票,持仓暴增82.7%后,持仓市值也仅提升至4500万美元。\n来自投资泰斗级人物的信心,远比这4500万美元持仓更有价值。但对于芒格来说,即便是4500万美元的持仓也不会轻易买入。Daily Journal的每一笔重仓下注,都暗暗关系到自己的“一世英名”。\n更何况,芒格与巴菲特对待中国企业不同的态度由来已久。\n01 老搭档的态度差异\n\n 除2008年对比亚迪的投资,以及2003年投资了港股中国石油之外,巴菲特十多年来没有任何新增投资。\n\n众所周知,芒格本人非常看好比亚迪并毫不吝惜对其的赞赏。今年2月,伴随着比亚迪股价的不断上涨,他再次谈起自己的爱股时,展示出了不同于以往的一面:\n\n 我其实是很少持有像比亚迪这样的股票,(估值)已经高到让你流鼻血的地步。我也是在不断的在学习。我们非常喜欢这家公司,也喜欢管理层,这就是我们的想法,所以我们还是非常忠诚于自己的想法。\n\n出于对比亚迪的认可,芒格甚至强调了自己也在不断的“学习”,这其中暗含的意味不言而喻。而经过了连续两年几乎不断的上涨之后,比亚迪已经排到了伯克希尔·哈撒韦公司持股市值的前列,这是此前从未出现过的事情。\n但巴菲特始终对于中国企业没有太多信任。在过去多年投资方向的拓展中,他先后开始投资科技硬件行业、云计算、新能源等领域,在国别上,介入过德国、韩国和日本等国家的企业,但在中国企业方面,除2008年对比亚迪的投资,以及2003年投资了港股中国石油之外,巴菲特十多年来没有任何新增投资。\n\n中国石油股份股价表现\n令很多中国价值投资者意难平的是,就连他们心目中与巴菲特价值投资理念最为吻合的茅台,巴菲特也迟迟没有过任何形式的买入操作。\n反而是芒格,通过李录旗下的喜马拉雅基金,间接投资了一些中国的优秀企业,除了比亚迪之外,比较知名的案例还包括了邮储银行港股。\n巴菲特曾经表示“中国市场很大,有非常多的可能性,如果在中国能找到合适的行业、合适的时间、合适的管理团队,我们会毫不犹豫地投资。”\n但说是一回事,真正投资却又是另外一回事。对比巴菲特对中国企业的态度,更显芒格亲自买入阿里巴巴的难能可贵。\n02 好坏未定的标签\n\n 在政策层面的反垄断之外,来自“市场层面的反垄断”力量甚至更强。\n\n在投资做到一定的阶段之后,高手们的一举一动都被市场所密切关注,并积极寻求效仿的可能。\n最典型者就是高瓴资本在2021年的境遇:任何布局,不论是二级市场买入还是定增还是一级市场投资后的上市,都吸引了大批散户投资者“抄作业”。\n自身对于市场巨大的影响力,也是大佬们面对的压力与风险的一部分:放弃贴在自己身上光辉耀眼的标签是很难的事情,给自己身上贴上一个好坏未定的标签也不容易。\n买入阿里巴巴对于芒格来说,就相当于在临近100岁的时候,给自己贴了一个全新的中国互联网标签。\n芒格的投资,对于身处逆境中的阿里来说,是效果卓著的利好。其面向资本市场释放出的价值,远胜CEO张勇接受任何海外媒体的采访。而在账面的盈亏得失之外,芒格却必须为这笔投资付出更大的潜在的声誉风险。\n几乎全球的投资者几乎都已经知道了芒格对阿里巴巴的“重仓买入”(其实只是Daily Journal的重仓),但阿里巴巴所面对的困难却是实实在在的——包括了监管对企业扩张边界的限制,以拼多多、抖音、美团为代表的竞争对手的冲击,以及企业文化层面的巨大挑战。\n在芒格过去数十年的投资生涯中,他都以“买入优秀公司”闻名于世。在一个艰难不利的环境下投资阿里巴巴,是否会是好的选择?\n至少从2021年的情况来看,这些担忧是被印证的。50%的下跌并没有成为阿里巴巴股价下跌的终点。\n对于阿里来说尤其不利的一点是,在政策层面的反垄断之外,来自“市场力量的反垄断”力量甚至更强。零售行业的新一轮商业模式创新,对于传统电商在资本市场上的估值造成了不利影响。\n03 阿里巴巴重走苹果路?\n\n 如今芒格对阿里巴巴的投资也出现了大幅度的下跌,但这是否意味着未来会如苹果一样被资本市场所重新认知,并恢复上涨?\n\n伯克希尔·哈撒韦投资中国石油和比亚迪,两笔投资双双获得巨大成功。虽然对阿里巴巴的投资仅是在芒格治下不到一亿美元的小账户下进行,但也不免被搬出来比较。\n但三笔投资有着非常明显的不同,甚至可以被归类到三种完全不同的风格逻辑里面:\n对于比亚迪的投资更像是一笔风险投资。在《李录卖飞了比亚迪》一文中,巨潮分析李录在一级市场上有过从业经历,并将这些经验融入到二级市场的投资中,断定王传福是一个“韦尔奇和爱迪生的混合体”,伯克希尔·哈撒韦也因此入股约18亿港元。\n\n比亚迪股份股价表现\n如今这18亿港元已经变成了将近700亿港元。从投入过程到持股周期到回报数额,这笔投资都有着非常浓厚的早期投资味道,且芒格的介入程度非常高。\n中国石油的投资更像是一笔纯正的巴菲特式投资,买入被低估的周期股投资,当时中国石油港股的市盈率仅有三倍。\n而芒格对于阿里巴巴的投资与这两笔投资都有不同,更接近于巴菲特对苹果公司的投资。对苹果的投资发生于2016年,当时的苹果正处于被资本市场重新认知的阶段——在此之前很长时间,苹果都被认为只是一家硬件企业。\n\n苹果公司股价表现\n更类似的是,伯克希尔·哈撒韦入股苹果之后,苹果也出现了一波幅度巨大的下跌,以至于有人认为巴菲特的投资失败了。\n如今芒格对阿里巴巴的投资也出现了大幅度的下跌,但这是否意味着未来会如苹果一样被资本市场所重新认知,并恢复上涨?\n芒格的簇拥们、阿里巴巴的股东们都期待着这一天。但如果这笔投资能够最终与伯克希尔·哈撒韦对苹果的投资一样扭转局势,人们需要思考以下的前提条件:\n\n 1.阿里巴巴是否能够在激烈的市场竞争中,给消费者以必选的理由?\n\n\n 2.阿里巴巴是否能够实现估值的提升——从硬件(基础设施)升维到更高层次的、能够被投资者认可并给出高估值的产品?\n\n\n 3.阿里巴巴是否能够在经营层面、管理层面实现顺利平稳的过渡?\n\n\n 4.阿里巴巴是否能够在竞争对手的挑战中越战越勇?\n\n\n 5.阿里巴巴是否能够构筑起被广泛认同的品牌与产品文化?\n\n这些问题的回答,会直接展示出阿里巴巴在困境中是否具有足够的韧性,而这些特质要远比一两年内的财务数据是否亮丽更加重要。\n04 写在最后\n芒格本人对于零售企业的投资有很深刻的认知。\n在接受《证券市场红周刊》的采访时,芒格表示自己一生最成功的三笔投资就是巴菲特、Costco、李录。其中Costco就是全球最成功的仓储超市,这家公司及其罕见地在互联网零售企业的冲击中独善其身,2008年以来股价几乎从未下跌,市值已经逼近2500亿元。\n芒格将Costco定位为“通过天才管理成为行业内翘楚的典型”,这与他对王传福的认可有异曲同工之处。\n但芒格曾经评价马云:“我认为马云评论中国政府的做法非常傲慢。这不是马云应该做的。”\n相比之下,他对于中国经济整体的信心更足,也许这才是他选择买入阿里巴巴最核心的原因:\n\n “我认为中国人在管理经济方面表现得非常精明,他们在管理经济方面取得了比我们更好的成果,而且我相信他们还能够继续下去。”","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2281,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3566883436258014","authorId":"3566883436258014","name":"一罐寡言","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4ff13f0a1a057754aba98d739e135be7","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3566883436258014","authorIdStr":"3566883436258014"},"content":"阿里云本质上还是依靠淘宝的流量的,淘宝完蛋,阿里云立刻失去盈利能力,还有其技术是先进,但抵不住同行都不用啊,现在那个互联网公司不在开发自己的云业务。 唯一能独善其身的估计也就蚂蚁金服吧","text":"阿里云本质上还是依靠淘宝的流量的,淘宝完蛋,阿里云立刻失去盈利能力,还有其技术是先进,但抵不住同行都不用啊,现在那个互联网公司不在开发自己的云业务。 唯一能独善其身的估计也就蚂蚁金服吧","html":"阿里云本质上还是依靠淘宝的流量的,淘宝完蛋,阿里云立刻失去盈利能力,还有其技术是先进,但抵不住同行都不用啊,现在那个互联网公司不在开发自己的云业务。 唯一能独善其身的估计也就蚂蚁金服吧"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":877625123,"gmtCreate":1637927766437,"gmtModify":1637927766437,"author":{"id":"3574026172467169","authorId":"3574026172467169","name":"Bobruan","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3574026172467169","authorIdStr":"3574026172467169"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"那其实阿里真的不差","listText":"那其实阿里真的不差","text":"那其实阿里真的不差","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/877625123","repostId":"1153107476","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1153107476","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据,旨在帮助投资者理解世界,做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1637926467,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1153107476?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-11-26 19:34","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"拼多多三季度营收215.1亿元,市场预期264.74亿元","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1153107476","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"11月26日,拼多多发布2021年第三季度业绩。财报显示,第三季度营收215.1亿元,市场预期264.74亿元,上年同期142亿元;第三季度净利润16.4亿元,市场预期净亏损5.18亿元,去年同期净亏","content":"<p>11月26日,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PDD\">拼多多</a>发布2021年第三季度业绩。财报显示,第三季度营收215.1亿元,市场预期264.74亿元,上年同期142亿元;第三季度净利润16.4亿元,市场预期净亏损5.18亿元,去年同期净亏损7.85亿元;第三季度平均月活跃用户数为7.415亿,同比增15%。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a55aa41856e2e34baf748b575907e0e8\" tg-width=\"933\" tg-height=\"733\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>截至2021年9月30日的12个月期间,活跃买家为8.673亿人,较截至2020年9月30日的12个月期间的7.313亿人增长19%;</p>\n<p>Q3网络营销服务及其他服务收入179.465亿元,比2020年同期的124.4848亿元增长44%;</p>\n<p>Q3交易服务收入为34.771亿元人民币,比2020年同期的13.321亿元增长161%;</p>\n<p>Q3商品销售收入为8210万元,比2020年同期的3.928亿元下降79%;</p>\n<p>Q3营业利润为21.393亿元人民币,2020年同期的营业亏损为12.957亿元人民币;</p>\n<p>拼多多董事长兼CEO陈磊表示,继二季度之后,本季度的利润也将全部投入“百亿农研专项”。“我们会将发展重心更多地转向研发,并利用拼多多在技术方面的优势,进一步推动农业数字化。”</p>\n<p>今年8月,拼多多设立“百亿农研专项”,宣布将第二季度及未来几个季度可能有的利润优先投入该专项。9月底,“百亿农研专项”获得了股东大会的批准。在第二季度利润全部投入该专项之后,拼多多本季度全部利润将继续投入该专项,进一步推动农业科技普惠。</p>\n<p>公布财报后,拼多多盘前一度跌近10%,现跌超6%。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2e55a3cec04ea5ca749022dcd34dfcf6\" tg-width=\"889\" tg-height=\"822\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>拼多多三季度营收215.1亿元,市场预期264.74亿元</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n拼多多三季度营收215.1亿元,市场预期264.74亿元\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2021-11-26 19:34</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>11月26日,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PDD\">拼多多</a>发布2021年第三季度业绩。财报显示,第三季度营收215.1亿元,市场预期264.74亿元,上年同期142亿元;第三季度净利润16.4亿元,市场预期净亏损5.18亿元,去年同期净亏损7.85亿元;第三季度平均月活跃用户数为7.415亿,同比增15%。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a55aa41856e2e34baf748b575907e0e8\" tg-width=\"933\" tg-height=\"733\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>截至2021年9月30日的12个月期间,活跃买家为8.673亿人,较截至2020年9月30日的12个月期间的7.313亿人增长19%;</p>\n<p>Q3网络营销服务及其他服务收入179.465亿元,比2020年同期的124.4848亿元增长44%;</p>\n<p>Q3交易服务收入为34.771亿元人民币,比2020年同期的13.321亿元增长161%;</p>\n<p>Q3商品销售收入为8210万元,比2020年同期的3.928亿元下降79%;</p>\n<p>Q3营业利润为21.393亿元人民币,2020年同期的营业亏损为12.957亿元人民币;</p>\n<p>拼多多董事长兼CEO陈磊表示,继二季度之后,本季度的利润也将全部投入“百亿农研专项”。“我们会将发展重心更多地转向研发,并利用拼多多在技术方面的优势,进一步推动农业数字化。”</p>\n<p>今年8月,拼多多设立“百亿农研专项”,宣布将第二季度及未来几个季度可能有的利润优先投入该专项。9月底,“百亿农研专项”获得了股东大会的批准。在第二季度利润全部投入该专项之后,拼多多本季度全部利润将继续投入该专项,进一步推动农业科技普惠。</p>\n<p>公布财报后,拼多多盘前一度跌近10%,现跌超6%。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2e55a3cec04ea5ca749022dcd34dfcf6\" tg-width=\"889\" tg-height=\"822\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c318bcd91a109139b7d70c76c30bb154","relate_stocks":{"BK4503":"景林资产持仓","BK4122":"互联网与直销零售","BK4548":"巴美列捷福持仓","BK4553":"喜马拉雅资本持仓","BK4531":"中概回港概念","BK4535":"淡马锡持仓","PDD":"拼多多","BK4501":"段永平概念","BK4505":"高瓴资本持仓","BK4558":"双十一","BK4504":"桥水持仓","BK4526":"热门中概股","BK4509":"腾讯概念"},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1153107476","content_text":"11月26日,拼多多发布2021年第三季度业绩。财报显示,第三季度营收215.1亿元,市场预期264.74亿元,上年同期142亿元;第三季度净利润16.4亿元,市场预期净亏损5.18亿元,去年同期净亏损7.85亿元;第三季度平均月活跃用户数为7.415亿,同比增15%。\n\n截至2021年9月30日的12个月期间,活跃买家为8.673亿人,较截至2020年9月30日的12个月期间的7.313亿人增长19%;\nQ3网络营销服务及其他服务收入179.465亿元,比2020年同期的124.4848亿元增长44%;\nQ3交易服务收入为34.771亿元人民币,比2020年同期的13.321亿元增长161%;\nQ3商品销售收入为8210万元,比2020年同期的3.928亿元下降79%;\nQ3营业利润为21.393亿元人民币,2020年同期的营业亏损为12.957亿元人民币;\n拼多多董事长兼CEO陈磊表示,继二季度之后,本季度的利润也将全部投入“百亿农研专项”。“我们会将发展重心更多地转向研发,并利用拼多多在技术方面的优势,进一步推动农业数字化。”\n今年8月,拼多多设立“百亿农研专项”,宣布将第二季度及未来几个季度可能有的利润优先投入该专项。9月底,“百亿农研专项”获得了股东大会的批准。在第二季度利润全部投入该专项之后,拼多多本季度全部利润将继续投入该专项,进一步推动农业科技普惠。\n公布财报后,拼多多盘前一度跌近10%,现跌超6%。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1301,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":823026641,"gmtCreate":1633566476815,"gmtModify":1633566476815,"author":{"id":"3574026172467169","authorId":"3574026172467169","name":"Bobruan","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3574026172467169","authorIdStr":"3574026172467169"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"可能是电动车多了,用电量增加了,以前没有电动车的时候,很少听到要限电的,假如电动车不断增加,到时缺电会越来越频繁","listText":"可能是电动车多了,用电量增加了,以前没有电动车的时候,很少听到要限电的,假如电动车不断增加,到时缺电会越来越频繁","text":"可能是电动车多了,用电量增加了,以前没有电动车的时候,很少听到要限电的,假如电动车不断增加,到时缺电会越来越频繁","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/823026641","repostId":"1148349467","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1148349467","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"提供来自华尔街的观点,观察市场,提供独道的解读视角。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎锐评","id":"1005414032","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1633526141,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1148349467?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-10-06 21:15","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"老虎盘前观察: 新能源是国内电荒的罪魁祸首?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1148349467","media":"老虎锐评","summary":"盘前观察\n美股盘前下跌,比特币持续走高,站上55000美元/枚,日内涨6.79%。(相关阅读:盘前:英伟达向欧盟做出让步,抗疫股成利空“集中营”)\n 新能源是国内电荒的罪魁祸首?\n冬天还未到,全球就突","content":"<p><b>盘前观察</b></p>\n<p>美股盘前下跌,比特币持续走高,站上55000美元/枚,日内涨6.79%。(相关阅读:<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/NW/1123867876\" target=\"_blank\">盘前:英伟达向欧盟做出让步,抗疫股成利空“集中营”</a>)</p>\n<p> <b>新能源是国内电荒的罪魁祸首?</b></p>\n<p>冬天还未到,全球就突然陷入了能源荒。从欧洲天然气价格飙涨,到中国各地拉闸限电,再到OPEC+在关键时刻决定不大幅增加原油产量,各种能源期货价格一路看涨。分析和讨论的文章很多,但最后的结论,总是“新能源是罪魁祸首”。</p>\n<p>动辄就怪新能源这种现象,其实在德州大停电的时候也出现过。年初德州因为寒冷大停电的时候,无数文章都说是德州的风能发电机因为太冷停转,而导致了德州大停电。但最后真实的情况是绝大部分能源损失来自于天然气发电厂因为低温停工,另一个更深层次的原因是德州电网独立,和外界不互通,造成了其它地方电力没法运进德州。但知道真相的人没几个,大家的记忆永远是那几张风能发电机被冻住的照片。</p>\n<p>全球能源市场非常碎片化,不同能源在各地形成的危机原因也不一样,很难用一个大一统的理论去叙述(就连“新冠是元凶”这类万精油,在能源问题上也不能套用)。我前段时间写过天然气在欧洲、美国和中国的情况,今天讨论国内的电荒问题。</p>\n<p>关于国内电荒问题的分析已经非常多,很多人都注意到了电价和煤价的倒挂。的确,目前发电用的动力煤价格一路飙涨(下左图),全国港口动力煤库存也达到了一个相对低点(下右图)。<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fc4aea3da42c9d7525db787fd780fa44\" tg-width=\"959\" tg-height=\"237\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">所以很多分析就会顺藤摸瓜去找动力煤(或者广义上的煤)价格为何飙升。找来找去,无非就是两个原因:一是环保,二是安全——导致国内煤产量没有跟上,从而导致国内电荒。反正,这个锅新能源肯定要背。</p>\n<p>但是,如果我们看国内的煤产量,根据国家统计局的数据:<b>1-8月份,生产原煤26.0亿吨,同比增长4.4%,比2019年同期增长4.2%。</b>也就是说,中国的煤产量在今年实际上是增加的,2020年1-8月因为新冠疫情煤产量略微下降,但是今年前8个月,已经超过了2019年同期水平。下图是我国过去5年的煤产量,总体来说,产量还是稳步增长,只增速变小。<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7b19661600f16fa6f0eddc43d50e3b80\" tg-width=\"756\" tg-height=\"321\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">后来又有一种说法,说今年的煤炭进口不多导致了煤炭价格上涨。根据国家统计局的数据:1-8月,<b>进口煤炭19769万吨,同比下降10.3%。</b>似乎有点道理,不过我国进口的煤炭,只占国内生产量的7%(2亿吨/26亿吨),同比下降10%,也就是说少了0.7%。有影响,但绝对不是主要原因。如果真的是因为进口导致了煤荒电荒,那么这种问题也很好解决——加大进口就好了。有一点需要提一下,根据路透社的图(下图),今年从澳大利亚进口的煤(黄色),确实少了很多,但是从印尼(蓝色)和俄国(红色)的进口量都在增加。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/611b2377435db1f7cf624a19fcf4f8cd\" tg-width=\"567\" tg-height=\"372\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">煤的国内产量在上升,进口量微跌,总量依旧增加。所以硬要说是因为煤荒导致了电荒,这个说法很牵强。所以,我整理了过去国家能源局公布的用电数据,如下表。<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8656ee8375592ed06cbe8b765d0ed22d\" tg-width=\"852\" tg-height=\"195\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">矛盾似乎忽然清晰起来,<b>今年的用电量相较于往年大幅增加,但是发电装机容量的增速,却没有跟上。所以并非是煤荒导致了电荒,而是用电量大幅提高,导致了煤供应短缺造成煤价上涨。</b></p>\n<p> 根据国家能源局的数据,用电量的大头,也是整体增速提高的地方,是工业用电量。今年1-6月份工业用电增量占全社会用电增量的70%。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ae6d0362cb4bcbe072bbb691bd68473a\" tg-width=\"535\" tg-height=\"255\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">所以,下一个问题就是,工业用电量为何增速如此之快?</p>\n<p>我把今年每个月的累计增速统计在下表。可以看出来,今年1-3月的增速最强,但是8月份增速已经降下来了(和限电有一定关系)。这个趋势,和今年的GDP的增速模式一致:第一季度中国GDP增速18.3%,第二季度增速7.9%。<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0511dbe3263ece0c2229054a419de7b4\" tg-width=\"938\" tg-height=\"115\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">总结一下。今天的电荒,不是因为煤荒导致,而是因为工业用电增长过快(煤荒只是因为用电太多,才导致煤不足)。而工业用电过快增长的原因,是因为国内的生产需求高,GDP增长快。</p>\n<p> 最后,请不要动不动就怪新能源。</p>\n<p><b>大市(美东时间9:00 AM)</b></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c179c5afad661528619a7484f25a5b9d\" tg-width=\"784\" tg-height=\"415\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><b>公司新闻</b></p>\n<p><b>爱奇艺(IQ):考虑筹集$5亿,最快今年年底在香港二次上市。</b></p>\n<p><b> 辉瑞(PFE)& BioNTech(BNTX):接种5个月后预防感染有效率降至47%。</b>《柳叶刀》最新研究显示,接种两剂疫苗5个月后,预防感染新冠病毒的有效率降至47%,但在预防与新冠感染相关的入院治疗方面,有效率仍保持在约90%。</p>\n<p><b> 挪威邮轮(NCLH):预计年底之前恢复75%游轮运营,明年4月1日全面恢复。</b>目前挪威邮轮有8艘船正在航行,旅客上船前必须接种疫苗。尚未有疫苗接种资格的儿童被禁止登上邮轮。</p>\n<p><b> 特斯拉(TSLA):上调Model 3/Y的美国售价。</b>Model 3标准续航版和高性能版各自提价$1,000,长续航版未涨价;Model Y长续航版及高性能版均提价$1,000。</p>\n<p><b>Facebook(FB):扎克伯格回应前员工指控,否认将利润置于用户安全之上。</b>扎克伯格呼吁国会更新互联网法规,以确定青少年使用互联网服务的年龄、科技公司应如何验证用户的年龄以及公司应如何平衡给予孩子隐私和让父母了解孩子的上网活动。</p>\n<p><b> Palantir(PLTR):获得美国军方价值$8.23亿的合同。</b>该公司将为军方提供覆盖多个安全类别的全球联合情报数据结构和分析平台,以支持世界各地的军方情报用户。</p>\n<p><b> 百事(PEP):随着供应中断持续,价格可能再次上涨。</b>百事CFO约翰斯顿表示,预计多数供应链中断将在2021年底前缓和,但明年1季度价格可能出现一些上涨。</p>\n<p><b> 英伟达(NVDA):在Arm收购问题上向欧盟做出让步。</b>欧盟反垄断执法机构没有提供与政策相符的让步细节,将最后期限定在10月27日。</p>\n<p><b> 台积电(TSM):将于2050年达到净零排放目标。</b></p>\n<p><b> IBM(IBM)&本田汽车(HMC):就欧洲财务和采购业务签署新协议。</b>根据该协议,IBM计划管理和运营本田在欧洲的财务和采购业务。</p>\n<p><b> 亚马逊(AMZN):CEO Jassy表示,视频游戏或成亚马逊最大娱乐业务。</b>一周前,亚马逊发布了PC版大型多人在线游戏《新世界》。 Jassy表示,这款游戏有一个“良好的开端”,每天拥有数百万活跃玩家。</p>\n<p><b>亚马逊(AMZN):在英国开设首家非食品实体店,利用线上销售数据决定售卖货品。</b>该实体店将提供其最畅销的书籍、电子产品、玩具、游戏和家庭用品系列。</p>\n<p><b> Netflix(NFLX):在网上商店中增加了跟《鱿鱼游戏》有关的周边产品。</b>Netflix称《鱿鱼游戏》可能会成为其最受欢迎的原创剧集。</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>老虎盘前观察: 新能源是国内电荒的罪魁祸首?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; 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margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n老虎盘前观察: 新能源是国内电荒的罪魁祸首?\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1005414032\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎锐评 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2021-10-06 21:15</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>盘前观察</b></p>\n<p>美股盘前下跌,比特币持续走高,站上55000美元/枚,日内涨6.79%。(相关阅读:<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/NW/1123867876\" target=\"_blank\">盘前:英伟达向欧盟做出让步,抗疫股成利空“集中营”</a>)</p>\n<p> <b>新能源是国内电荒的罪魁祸首?</b></p>\n<p>冬天还未到,全球就突然陷入了能源荒。从欧洲天然气价格飙涨,到中国各地拉闸限电,再到OPEC+在关键时刻决定不大幅增加原油产量,各种能源期货价格一路看涨。分析和讨论的文章很多,但最后的结论,总是“新能源是罪魁祸首”。</p>\n<p>动辄就怪新能源这种现象,其实在德州大停电的时候也出现过。年初德州因为寒冷大停电的时候,无数文章都说是德州的风能发电机因为太冷停转,而导致了德州大停电。但最后真实的情况是绝大部分能源损失来自于天然气发电厂因为低温停工,另一个更深层次的原因是德州电网独立,和外界不互通,造成了其它地方电力没法运进德州。但知道真相的人没几个,大家的记忆永远是那几张风能发电机被冻住的照片。</p>\n<p>全球能源市场非常碎片化,不同能源在各地形成的危机原因也不一样,很难用一个大一统的理论去叙述(就连“新冠是元凶”这类万精油,在能源问题上也不能套用)。我前段时间写过天然气在欧洲、美国和中国的情况,今天讨论国内的电荒问题。</p>\n<p>关于国内电荒问题的分析已经非常多,很多人都注意到了电价和煤价的倒挂。的确,目前发电用的动力煤价格一路飙涨(下左图),全国港口动力煤库存也达到了一个相对低点(下右图)。<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fc4aea3da42c9d7525db787fd780fa44\" tg-width=\"959\" tg-height=\"237\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">所以很多分析就会顺藤摸瓜去找动力煤(或者广义上的煤)价格为何飙升。找来找去,无非就是两个原因:一是环保,二是安全——导致国内煤产量没有跟上,从而导致国内电荒。反正,这个锅新能源肯定要背。</p>\n<p>但是,如果我们看国内的煤产量,根据国家统计局的数据:<b>1-8月份,生产原煤26.0亿吨,同比增长4.4%,比2019年同期增长4.2%。</b>也就是说,中国的煤产量在今年实际上是增加的,2020年1-8月因为新冠疫情煤产量略微下降,但是今年前8个月,已经超过了2019年同期水平。下图是我国过去5年的煤产量,总体来说,产量还是稳步增长,只增速变小。<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7b19661600f16fa6f0eddc43d50e3b80\" tg-width=\"756\" tg-height=\"321\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">后来又有一种说法,说今年的煤炭进口不多导致了煤炭价格上涨。根据国家统计局的数据:1-8月,<b>进口煤炭19769万吨,同比下降10.3%。</b>似乎有点道理,不过我国进口的煤炭,只占国内生产量的7%(2亿吨/26亿吨),同比下降10%,也就是说少了0.7%。有影响,但绝对不是主要原因。如果真的是因为进口导致了煤荒电荒,那么这种问题也很好解决——加大进口就好了。有一点需要提一下,根据路透社的图(下图),今年从澳大利亚进口的煤(黄色),确实少了很多,但是从印尼(蓝色)和俄国(红色)的进口量都在增加。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/611b2377435db1f7cf624a19fcf4f8cd\" tg-width=\"567\" tg-height=\"372\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">煤的国内产量在上升,进口量微跌,总量依旧增加。所以硬要说是因为煤荒导致了电荒,这个说法很牵强。所以,我整理了过去国家能源局公布的用电数据,如下表。<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8656ee8375592ed06cbe8b765d0ed22d\" tg-width=\"852\" tg-height=\"195\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">矛盾似乎忽然清晰起来,<b>今年的用电量相较于往年大幅增加,但是发电装机容量的增速,却没有跟上。所以并非是煤荒导致了电荒,而是用电量大幅提高,导致了煤供应短缺造成煤价上涨。</b></p>\n<p> 根据国家能源局的数据,用电量的大头,也是整体增速提高的地方,是工业用电量。今年1-6月份工业用电增量占全社会用电增量的70%。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ae6d0362cb4bcbe072bbb691bd68473a\" tg-width=\"535\" tg-height=\"255\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">所以,下一个问题就是,工业用电量为何增速如此之快?</p>\n<p>我把今年每个月的累计增速统计在下表。可以看出来,今年1-3月的增速最强,但是8月份增速已经降下来了(和限电有一定关系)。这个趋势,和今年的GDP的增速模式一致:第一季度中国GDP增速18.3%,第二季度增速7.9%。<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0511dbe3263ece0c2229054a419de7b4\" tg-width=\"938\" tg-height=\"115\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">总结一下。今天的电荒,不是因为煤荒导致,而是因为工业用电增长过快(煤荒只是因为用电太多,才导致煤不足)。而工业用电过快增长的原因,是因为国内的生产需求高,GDP增长快。</p>\n<p> 最后,请不要动不动就怪新能源。</p>\n<p><b>大市(美东时间9:00 AM)</b></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c179c5afad661528619a7484f25a5b9d\" tg-width=\"784\" tg-height=\"415\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><b>公司新闻</b></p>\n<p><b>爱奇艺(IQ):考虑筹集$5亿,最快今年年底在香港二次上市。</b></p>\n<p><b> 辉瑞(PFE)& BioNTech(BNTX):接种5个月后预防感染有效率降至47%。</b>《柳叶刀》最新研究显示,接种两剂疫苗5个月后,预防感染新冠病毒的有效率降至47%,但在预防与新冠感染相关的入院治疗方面,有效率仍保持在约90%。</p>\n<p><b> 挪威邮轮(NCLH):预计年底之前恢复75%游轮运营,明年4月1日全面恢复。</b>目前挪威邮轮有8艘船正在航行,旅客上船前必须接种疫苗。尚未有疫苗接种资格的儿童被禁止登上邮轮。</p>\n<p><b> 特斯拉(TSLA):上调Model 3/Y的美国售价。</b>Model 3标准续航版和高性能版各自提价$1,000,长续航版未涨价;Model Y长续航版及高性能版均提价$1,000。</p>\n<p><b>Facebook(FB):扎克伯格回应前员工指控,否认将利润置于用户安全之上。</b>扎克伯格呼吁国会更新互联网法规,以确定青少年使用互联网服务的年龄、科技公司应如何验证用户的年龄以及公司应如何平衡给予孩子隐私和让父母了解孩子的上网活动。</p>\n<p><b> Palantir(PLTR):获得美国军方价值$8.23亿的合同。</b>该公司将为军方提供覆盖多个安全类别的全球联合情报数据结构和分析平台,以支持世界各地的军方情报用户。</p>\n<p><b> 百事(PEP):随着供应中断持续,价格可能再次上涨。</b>百事CFO约翰斯顿表示,预计多数供应链中断将在2021年底前缓和,但明年1季度价格可能出现一些上涨。</p>\n<p><b> 英伟达(NVDA):在Arm收购问题上向欧盟做出让步。</b>欧盟反垄断执法机构没有提供与政策相符的让步细节,将最后期限定在10月27日。</p>\n<p><b> 台积电(TSM):将于2050年达到净零排放目标。</b></p>\n<p><b> IBM(IBM)&本田汽车(HMC):就欧洲财务和采购业务签署新协议。</b>根据该协议,IBM计划管理和运营本田在欧洲的财务和采购业务。</p>\n<p><b> 亚马逊(AMZN):CEO Jassy表示,视频游戏或成亚马逊最大娱乐业务。</b>一周前,亚马逊发布了PC版大型多人在线游戏《新世界》。 Jassy表示,这款游戏有一个“良好的开端”,每天拥有数百万活跃玩家。</p>\n<p><b>亚马逊(AMZN):在英国开设首家非食品实体店,利用线上销售数据决定售卖货品。</b>该实体店将提供其最畅销的书籍、电子产品、玩具、游戏和家庭用品系列。</p>\n<p><b> Netflix(NFLX):在网上商店中增加了跟《鱿鱼游戏》有关的周边产品。</b>Netflix称《鱿鱼游戏》可能会成为其最受欢迎的原创剧集。</p>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9e51dca4aea5a4f4975d48e2264c0446","relate_stocks":{".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".DJI":"道琼斯"},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1148349467","content_text":"盘前观察\n美股盘前下跌,比特币持续走高,站上55000美元/枚,日内涨6.79%。(相关阅读:盘前:英伟达向欧盟做出让步,抗疫股成利空“集中营”)\n 新能源是国内电荒的罪魁祸首?\n冬天还未到,全球就突然陷入了能源荒。从欧洲天然气价格飙涨,到中国各地拉闸限电,再到OPEC+在关键时刻决定不大幅增加原油产量,各种能源期货价格一路看涨。分析和讨论的文章很多,但最后的结论,总是“新能源是罪魁祸首”。\n动辄就怪新能源这种现象,其实在德州大停电的时候也出现过。年初德州因为寒冷大停电的时候,无数文章都说是德州的风能发电机因为太冷停转,而导致了德州大停电。但最后真实的情况是绝大部分能源损失来自于天然气发电厂因为低温停工,另一个更深层次的原因是德州电网独立,和外界不互通,造成了其它地方电力没法运进德州。但知道真相的人没几个,大家的记忆永远是那几张风能发电机被冻住的照片。\n全球能源市场非常碎片化,不同能源在各地形成的危机原因也不一样,很难用一个大一统的理论去叙述(就连“新冠是元凶”这类万精油,在能源问题上也不能套用)。我前段时间写过天然气在欧洲、美国和中国的情况,今天讨论国内的电荒问题。\n关于国内电荒问题的分析已经非常多,很多人都注意到了电价和煤价的倒挂。的确,目前发电用的动力煤价格一路飙涨(下左图),全国港口动力煤库存也达到了一个相对低点(下右图)。所以很多分析就会顺藤摸瓜去找动力煤(或者广义上的煤)价格为何飙升。找来找去,无非就是两个原因:一是环保,二是安全——导致国内煤产量没有跟上,从而导致国内电荒。反正,这个锅新能源肯定要背。\n但是,如果我们看国内的煤产量,根据国家统计局的数据:1-8月份,生产原煤26.0亿吨,同比增长4.4%,比2019年同期增长4.2%。也就是说,中国的煤产量在今年实际上是增加的,2020年1-8月因为新冠疫情煤产量略微下降,但是今年前8个月,已经超过了2019年同期水平。下图是我国过去5年的煤产量,总体来说,产量还是稳步增长,只增速变小。后来又有一种说法,说今年的煤炭进口不多导致了煤炭价格上涨。根据国家统计局的数据:1-8月,进口煤炭19769万吨,同比下降10.3%。似乎有点道理,不过我国进口的煤炭,只占国内生产量的7%(2亿吨/26亿吨),同比下降10%,也就是说少了0.7%。有影响,但绝对不是主要原因。如果真的是因为进口导致了煤荒电荒,那么这种问题也很好解决——加大进口就好了。有一点需要提一下,根据路透社的图(下图),今年从澳大利亚进口的煤(黄色),确实少了很多,但是从印尼(蓝色)和俄国(红色)的进口量都在增加。\n煤的国内产量在上升,进口量微跌,总量依旧增加。所以硬要说是因为煤荒导致了电荒,这个说法很牵强。所以,我整理了过去国家能源局公布的用电数据,如下表。矛盾似乎忽然清晰起来,今年的用电量相较于往年大幅增加,但是发电装机容量的增速,却没有跟上。所以并非是煤荒导致了电荒,而是用电量大幅提高,导致了煤供应短缺造成煤价上涨。\n 根据国家能源局的数据,用电量的大头,也是整体增速提高的地方,是工业用电量。今年1-6月份工业用电增量占全社会用电增量的70%。\n所以,下一个问题就是,工业用电量为何增速如此之快?\n我把今年每个月的累计增速统计在下表。可以看出来,今年1-3月的增速最强,但是8月份增速已经降下来了(和限电有一定关系)。这个趋势,和今年的GDP的增速模式一致:第一季度中国GDP增速18.3%,第二季度增速7.9%。总结一下。今天的电荒,不是因为煤荒导致,而是因为工业用电增长过快(煤荒只是因为用电太多,才导致煤不足)。而工业用电过快增长的原因,是因为国内的生产需求高,GDP增长快。\n 最后,请不要动不动就怪新能源。\n大市(美东时间9:00 AM)\n公司新闻\n爱奇艺(IQ):考虑筹集$5亿,最快今年年底在香港二次上市。\n 辉瑞(PFE)& BioNTech(BNTX):接种5个月后预防感染有效率降至47%。《柳叶刀》最新研究显示,接种两剂疫苗5个月后,预防感染新冠病毒的有效率降至47%,但在预防与新冠感染相关的入院治疗方面,有效率仍保持在约90%。\n 挪威邮轮(NCLH):预计年底之前恢复75%游轮运营,明年4月1日全面恢复。目前挪威邮轮有8艘船正在航行,旅客上船前必须接种疫苗。尚未有疫苗接种资格的儿童被禁止登上邮轮。\n 特斯拉(TSLA):上调Model 3/Y的美国售价。Model 3标准续航版和高性能版各自提价$1,000,长续航版未涨价;Model Y长续航版及高性能版均提价$1,000。\nFacebook(FB):扎克伯格回应前员工指控,否认将利润置于用户安全之上。扎克伯格呼吁国会更新互联网法规,以确定青少年使用互联网服务的年龄、科技公司应如何验证用户的年龄以及公司应如何平衡给予孩子隐私和让父母了解孩子的上网活动。\n Palantir(PLTR):获得美国军方价值$8.23亿的合同。该公司将为军方提供覆盖多个安全类别的全球联合情报数据结构和分析平台,以支持世界各地的军方情报用户。\n 百事(PEP):随着供应中断持续,价格可能再次上涨。百事CFO约翰斯顿表示,预计多数供应链中断将在2021年底前缓和,但明年1季度价格可能出现一些上涨。\n 英伟达(NVDA):在Arm收购问题上向欧盟做出让步。欧盟反垄断执法机构没有提供与政策相符的让步细节,将最后期限定在10月27日。\n 台积电(TSM):将于2050年达到净零排放目标。\n IBM(IBM)&本田汽车(HMC):就欧洲财务和采购业务签署新协议。根据该协议,IBM计划管理和运营本田在欧洲的财务和采购业务。\n 亚马逊(AMZN):CEO Jassy表示,视频游戏或成亚马逊最大娱乐业务。一周前,亚马逊发布了PC版大型多人在线游戏《新世界》。 Jassy表示,这款游戏有一个“良好的开端”,每天拥有数百万活跃玩家。\n亚马逊(AMZN):在英国开设首家非食品实体店,利用线上销售数据决定售卖货品。该实体店将提供其最畅销的书籍、电子产品、玩具、游戏和家庭用品系列。\n Netflix(NFLX):在网上商店中增加了跟《鱿鱼游戏》有关的周边产品。Netflix称《鱿鱼游戏》可能会成为其最受欢迎的原创剧集。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2197,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":807067406,"gmtCreate":1627989944605,"gmtModify":1627989944605,"author":{"id":"3574026172467169","authorId":"3574026172467169","name":"Bobruan","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3574026172467169","authorIdStr":"3574026172467169"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"the cloud only grew 29%?It is too bad.","listText":"the cloud only grew 29%?It is too bad.","text":"the cloud only grew 29%?It is too bad.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/807067406","repostId":"1169635195","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1169635195","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Providing stock market headlines, business news, financials and earnings ","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Tiger Newspress","id":"1079075236","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1627988246,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1169635195?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-08-03 18:57","market":"hk","language":"en","title":"Alibaba EPS beats by RMB2.27, misses on revenue","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1169635195","media":"Tiger Newspress","summary":" $Alibaba$ posted financial result in premarket, which showed that:. Alibaba Q1 revenue RMB205.74 bln vs. RMB153.75 bln a year ago; FactSet consensus RMB209.11 bln.Alibaba Q1 adj. EPS RMB16.60 vs. RMB14.82 a year ago; FactSet consensus RMB14.33.Revenue was RMB205,740 million , an increase of 34% year-over-year. Excluding the consolidation of Sun Art, our revenue would have grown 22% year-over-year to RMB187,306 million .Annual active consumersof the Alibaba Ecosystem across the world reached app","content":"<p>(August 3) <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BABA\">Alibaba</a> posted financial result in premarket, which showed that:</p>\n<p>Alibaba Q1 revenue RMB205.74 bln vs. RMB153.75 bln a year ago; FactSet consensus RMB209.11 bln.</p>\n<p>Alibaba Q1 adj. EPS RMB16.60 vs. RMB14.82 a year ago; FactSet consensus RMB14.33.</p>\n<p><b>BUSINESS HIGHLIGHTS</b></p>\n<p><b>In the quarter ended June 30, 2021:</b></p>\n<ul>\n <li><b>Revenue</b> was RMB205,740 million (US$31,865 million), an increase of 34% year-over-year. Excluding the consolidation of Sun Art, our revenue would have grown 22% year-over-year to RMB187,306 million (US$29,010 million).</li>\n <li><b>Annual active consumers</b>of the Alibaba Ecosystem across the world reached approximately 1.18 billion for the twelve months ended June 30, 2021, an increase of 45 million from the twelve months ended March 31, 2021. This includes 912 million consumers in China1and 265 million consumers overseas served by Lazada, AliExpress, Trendyol and Daraz.</li>\n <li><b>Income from operations</b> was RMB30,847 million (US$4,778 million), a decrease of 11% year-over-year.<b>Adjusted EBITDA</b>, a non-GAAP measurement, decreased 5% year-over-year to RMB48,628 million (US$7,532 million).<b>Adjusted EBITA</b>, a non-GAAP measurement, decreased 8% year-over-year to RMB41,731 million (US$6,463 million). The year-over-year decreases were primarily due to our investments in strategic areas to capture incremental opportunities, such as Community Marketplaces, Taobao Deals, Local Consumer Services and Lazada, as well as our increased spending on growth initiatives within China retail marketplaces, such as Idle Fish and Taobao Live, and our support to merchants.</li>\n <li><b>Net income attributable to ordinary shareholders</b> was RMB45,141 million (US$6,991 million),and<b>net income</b>was RMB42,835 million (US$6,634 million).<b>Non-GAAP net income</b> was RMB43,441 million (US$6,728 million), an increase of 10% year-over-year, mainly due to an increase in share of profit of equity method investees.</li>\n <li><b>Diluted earnings per ADS</b> was RMB16.38 (US$2.54) and<b>diluted earnings per share</b>was RMB2.05 (US$0.32 or HK$2.46).<b>Non-GAAP diluted earnings per ADS</b>was RMB16.60 (US$2.57), an increase of 12% year-over-year and<b>non-GAAP diluted earnings per share</b>was RMB2.08 (US$0.32 or HK$2.50), an increase of 12% year-over-year.</li>\n <li><b>Net cashprovided by operating activities</b> was RMB33,603 million (US$5,204 million).<b>Non-GAAP free cash flow</b>was RMB20,683 million (US$3,203 million), a decrease compared to RMB36,570 million in the same quarter of 2020, mainly due to the partial settlement in the amount of RMB9,114 million (US$1,412 million) of the RMB18,228 million fine levied earlier this year by China’s State Administration for Market Regulation pursuant to China’s Anti-monopoly Law (the “Anti-monopoly Fine”) and a decrease in profit as a result of our investments in key strategic areas.</li>\n</ul>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/11aa08a1ccb4f80e6867c7e7631297c8\" tg-width=\"719\" tg-height=\"863\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p><b>China Retail Marketplaces</b></p>\n<p>In June 2021, Alibaba's China retail marketplaces had 939 million mobile MAUs, representing a quarterly net increase of 14 million.</p>\n<p><b>Cloud Computing</b></p>\n<p>In the June 2021 quarter, our cloud computing revenue grew 29% year-over-year to RMB16,051 million (US$2,486 million), primarily driven by robust growth in revenue from customers in the Internet, financial services and retail industries.</p>\n<p><b>Cash Flow from Operating Activities and Free Cash Flow</b></p>\n<p>In the quarter ended June 30, 2021, net cash provided by operating activities was RMB33,603 million (US$5,204 million), a decrease compared to RMB50,099 million in the same quarter of 2020. Free cash flow, a non-GAAP measurement of liquidity, decreased to RMB20,683 million (US$3,203 million), from RMB36,570 million in the same quarter of 2020. The year-over-year decreases were mainly due to the partial settlement in the amount of RMB9,114 million (US$1,412 million) of the RMB18,228 million Anti-monopoly Fine and a decrease in profit as a result of our investments in key strategic areas. A reconciliation of net cash provided by operating activities to free cash flow is included at the end of this results announcement.</p>\n<p><b>Increasing Share Repurchases</b></p>\n<p>Since April 1, 2021 and through the publication of this results announcement, we repurchased approximately 18.1 million of our ADSs (the equivalent of approximately 144.5 million of our ordinary shares) for approximately US$3,680 million under our share repurchase program. In addition, on August 2, 2021, our board of directors authorized the Company to upsize our Company's share repurchase program from US$10 billion to US$15 billion. This share repurchase program will be effective through the end of 2022.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/58bf53593de78f5f6e4fa1096d7aae94\" tg-width=\"757\" tg-height=\"793\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>We are increasing our share repurchase program from US$10 billion to US$15 billion, the largest share repurchase program in the Company’s history, because we are confident of our long-term growth prospects. Our net cash position remains strong and we have repurchased approximately US$3.7 billion of our ADSs since April 1, 2021.”</p>\n<p>In June 2021, our China retail marketplaces had 939 million mobile MAUs, representing a quarterly net increase of 14 million. We continue to increase penetration in less-developed areas, reflecting our success in broadening product offerings to meet diverse consumer demand.</p>\n<p>“Alibaba started the new fiscal year by delivering a healthy quarter. For the June quarter, global annual active consumers across the Alibaba Ecosystem reached 1.18 billion, an increase of 45 million from the March quarter, which includes 912 million consumers in China. Over more than twenty years of growth, we have developed a company that spans across both consumer and industrial Internet, with multiple engines driving our long-term growth,” said Daniel Zhang, Chairman and Chief Executive Officer of Alibaba Group. “We believe in the growth of the Chinese economy and long-term value creation of Alibaba, and we will continue to strengthen our technology advantage in improving the consumer experience and helping our enterprise customers to accomplish successful digital transformations.”</p>\n<p>“We delivered strong revenue growth of 34% year-over-year. As we said in last quarter's results announcement, we are investing our excess profits and additional capital to support our merchants and invest in strategic areas to better serve customers and penetrate into new addressable markets,” said Maggie Wu, Chief Financial Officer of Alibaba Group. “We are increasing our share repurchase program from US$10 billion to US$15 billion, the largest share repurchase program in the Company’s history, because we are confident of our long-term growth prospects. Our net cash position remains strong and we have repurchased approximately US$3.7 billion of our ADSs since April 1, 2021.”</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Alibaba EPS beats by RMB2.27, misses on revenue</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nAlibaba EPS beats by RMB2.27, misses on revenue\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1079075236\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Tiger Newspress </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2021-08-03 18:57</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>(August 3) <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BABA\">Alibaba</a> posted financial result in premarket, which showed that:</p>\n<p>Alibaba Q1 revenue RMB205.74 bln vs. RMB153.75 bln a year ago; FactSet consensus RMB209.11 bln.</p>\n<p>Alibaba Q1 adj. EPS RMB16.60 vs. RMB14.82 a year ago; FactSet consensus RMB14.33.</p>\n<p><b>BUSINESS HIGHLIGHTS</b></p>\n<p><b>In the quarter ended June 30, 2021:</b></p>\n<ul>\n <li><b>Revenue</b> was RMB205,740 million (US$31,865 million), an increase of 34% year-over-year. Excluding the consolidation of Sun Art, our revenue would have grown 22% year-over-year to RMB187,306 million (US$29,010 million).</li>\n <li><b>Annual active consumers</b>of the Alibaba Ecosystem across the world reached approximately 1.18 billion for the twelve months ended June 30, 2021, an increase of 45 million from the twelve months ended March 31, 2021. This includes 912 million consumers in China1and 265 million consumers overseas served by Lazada, AliExpress, Trendyol and Daraz.</li>\n <li><b>Income from operations</b> was RMB30,847 million (US$4,778 million), a decrease of 11% year-over-year.<b>Adjusted EBITDA</b>, a non-GAAP measurement, decreased 5% year-over-year to RMB48,628 million (US$7,532 million).<b>Adjusted EBITA</b>, a non-GAAP measurement, decreased 8% year-over-year to RMB41,731 million (US$6,463 million). The year-over-year decreases were primarily due to our investments in strategic areas to capture incremental opportunities, such as Community Marketplaces, Taobao Deals, Local Consumer Services and Lazada, as well as our increased spending on growth initiatives within China retail marketplaces, such as Idle Fish and Taobao Live, and our support to merchants.</li>\n <li><b>Net income attributable to ordinary shareholders</b> was RMB45,141 million (US$6,991 million),and<b>net income</b>was RMB42,835 million (US$6,634 million).<b>Non-GAAP net income</b> was RMB43,441 million (US$6,728 million), an increase of 10% year-over-year, mainly due to an increase in share of profit of equity method investees.</li>\n <li><b>Diluted earnings per ADS</b> was RMB16.38 (US$2.54) and<b>diluted earnings per share</b>was RMB2.05 (US$0.32 or HK$2.46).<b>Non-GAAP diluted earnings per ADS</b>was RMB16.60 (US$2.57), an increase of 12% year-over-year and<b>non-GAAP diluted earnings per share</b>was RMB2.08 (US$0.32 or HK$2.50), an increase of 12% year-over-year.</li>\n <li><b>Net cashprovided by operating activities</b> was RMB33,603 million (US$5,204 million).<b>Non-GAAP free cash flow</b>was RMB20,683 million (US$3,203 million), a decrease compared to RMB36,570 million in the same quarter of 2020, mainly due to the partial settlement in the amount of RMB9,114 million (US$1,412 million) of the RMB18,228 million fine levied earlier this year by China’s State Administration for Market Regulation pursuant to China’s Anti-monopoly Law (the “Anti-monopoly Fine”) and a decrease in profit as a result of our investments in key strategic areas.</li>\n</ul>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/11aa08a1ccb4f80e6867c7e7631297c8\" tg-width=\"719\" tg-height=\"863\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p><b>China Retail Marketplaces</b></p>\n<p>In June 2021, Alibaba's China retail marketplaces had 939 million mobile MAUs, representing a quarterly net increase of 14 million.</p>\n<p><b>Cloud Computing</b></p>\n<p>In the June 2021 quarter, our cloud computing revenue grew 29% year-over-year to RMB16,051 million (US$2,486 million), primarily driven by robust growth in revenue from customers in the Internet, financial services and retail industries.</p>\n<p><b>Cash Flow from Operating Activities and Free Cash Flow</b></p>\n<p>In the quarter ended June 30, 2021, net cash provided by operating activities was RMB33,603 million (US$5,204 million), a decrease compared to RMB50,099 million in the same quarter of 2020. Free cash flow, a non-GAAP measurement of liquidity, decreased to RMB20,683 million (US$3,203 million), from RMB36,570 million in the same quarter of 2020. The year-over-year decreases were mainly due to the partial settlement in the amount of RMB9,114 million (US$1,412 million) of the RMB18,228 million Anti-monopoly Fine and a decrease in profit as a result of our investments in key strategic areas. A reconciliation of net cash provided by operating activities to free cash flow is included at the end of this results announcement.</p>\n<p><b>Increasing Share Repurchases</b></p>\n<p>Since April 1, 2021 and through the publication of this results announcement, we repurchased approximately 18.1 million of our ADSs (the equivalent of approximately 144.5 million of our ordinary shares) for approximately US$3,680 million under our share repurchase program. In addition, on August 2, 2021, our board of directors authorized the Company to upsize our Company's share repurchase program from US$10 billion to US$15 billion. This share repurchase program will be effective through the end of 2022.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/58bf53593de78f5f6e4fa1096d7aae94\" tg-width=\"757\" tg-height=\"793\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>We are increasing our share repurchase program from US$10 billion to US$15 billion, the largest share repurchase program in the Company’s history, because we are confident of our long-term growth prospects. Our net cash position remains strong and we have repurchased approximately US$3.7 billion of our ADSs since April 1, 2021.”</p>\n<p>In June 2021, our China retail marketplaces had 939 million mobile MAUs, representing a quarterly net increase of 14 million. We continue to increase penetration in less-developed areas, reflecting our success in broadening product offerings to meet diverse consumer demand.</p>\n<p>“Alibaba started the new fiscal year by delivering a healthy quarter. For the June quarter, global annual active consumers across the Alibaba Ecosystem reached 1.18 billion, an increase of 45 million from the March quarter, which includes 912 million consumers in China. Over more than twenty years of growth, we have developed a company that spans across both consumer and industrial Internet, with multiple engines driving our long-term growth,” said Daniel Zhang, Chairman and Chief Executive Officer of Alibaba Group. “We believe in the growth of the Chinese economy and long-term value creation of Alibaba, and we will continue to strengthen our technology advantage in improving the consumer experience and helping our enterprise customers to accomplish successful digital transformations.”</p>\n<p>“We delivered strong revenue growth of 34% year-over-year. As we said in last quarter's results announcement, we are investing our excess profits and additional capital to support our merchants and invest in strategic areas to better serve customers and penetrate into new addressable markets,” said Maggie Wu, Chief Financial Officer of Alibaba Group. “We are increasing our share repurchase program from US$10 billion to US$15 billion, the largest share repurchase program in the Company’s history, because we are confident of our long-term growth prospects. Our net cash position remains strong and we have repurchased approximately US$3.7 billion of our ADSs since April 1, 2021.”</p>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"BABA":"阿里巴巴","09988":"阿里巴巴-W"},"is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1169635195","content_text":"(August 3) Alibaba posted financial result in premarket, which showed that:\nAlibaba Q1 revenue RMB205.74 bln vs. RMB153.75 bln a year ago; FactSet consensus RMB209.11 bln.\nAlibaba Q1 adj. EPS RMB16.60 vs. RMB14.82 a year ago; FactSet consensus RMB14.33.\nBUSINESS HIGHLIGHTS\nIn the quarter ended June 30, 2021:\n\nRevenue was RMB205,740 million (US$31,865 million), an increase of 34% year-over-year. Excluding the consolidation of Sun Art, our revenue would have grown 22% year-over-year to RMB187,306 million (US$29,010 million).\nAnnual active consumersof the Alibaba Ecosystem across the world reached approximately 1.18 billion for the twelve months ended June 30, 2021, an increase of 45 million from the twelve months ended March 31, 2021. This includes 912 million consumers in China1and 265 million consumers overseas served by Lazada, AliExpress, Trendyol and Daraz.\nIncome from operations was RMB30,847 million (US$4,778 million), a decrease of 11% year-over-year.Adjusted EBITDA, a non-GAAP measurement, decreased 5% year-over-year to RMB48,628 million (US$7,532 million).Adjusted EBITA, a non-GAAP measurement, decreased 8% year-over-year to RMB41,731 million (US$6,463 million). The year-over-year decreases were primarily due to our investments in strategic areas to capture incremental opportunities, such as Community Marketplaces, Taobao Deals, Local Consumer Services and Lazada, as well as our increased spending on growth initiatives within China retail marketplaces, such as Idle Fish and Taobao Live, and our support to merchants.\nNet income attributable to ordinary shareholders was RMB45,141 million (US$6,991 million),andnet incomewas RMB42,835 million (US$6,634 million).Non-GAAP net income was RMB43,441 million (US$6,728 million), an increase of 10% year-over-year, mainly due to an increase in share of profit of equity method investees.\nDiluted earnings per ADS was RMB16.38 (US$2.54) anddiluted earnings per sharewas RMB2.05 (US$0.32 or HK$2.46).Non-GAAP diluted earnings per ADSwas RMB16.60 (US$2.57), an increase of 12% year-over-year andnon-GAAP diluted earnings per sharewas RMB2.08 (US$0.32 or HK$2.50), an increase of 12% year-over-year.\nNet cashprovided by operating activities was RMB33,603 million (US$5,204 million).Non-GAAP free cash flowwas RMB20,683 million (US$3,203 million), a decrease compared to RMB36,570 million in the same quarter of 2020, mainly due to the partial settlement in the amount of RMB9,114 million (US$1,412 million) of the RMB18,228 million fine levied earlier this year by China’s State Administration for Market Regulation pursuant to China’s Anti-monopoly Law (the “Anti-monopoly Fine”) and a decrease in profit as a result of our investments in key strategic areas.\n\n\nChina Retail Marketplaces\nIn June 2021, Alibaba's China retail marketplaces had 939 million mobile MAUs, representing a quarterly net increase of 14 million.\nCloud Computing\nIn the June 2021 quarter, our cloud computing revenue grew 29% year-over-year to RMB16,051 million (US$2,486 million), primarily driven by robust growth in revenue from customers in the Internet, financial services and retail industries.\nCash Flow from Operating Activities and Free Cash Flow\nIn the quarter ended June 30, 2021, net cash provided by operating activities was RMB33,603 million (US$5,204 million), a decrease compared to RMB50,099 million in the same quarter of 2020. Free cash flow, a non-GAAP measurement of liquidity, decreased to RMB20,683 million (US$3,203 million), from RMB36,570 million in the same quarter of 2020. The year-over-year decreases were mainly due to the partial settlement in the amount of RMB9,114 million (US$1,412 million) of the RMB18,228 million Anti-monopoly Fine and a decrease in profit as a result of our investments in key strategic areas. A reconciliation of net cash provided by operating activities to free cash flow is included at the end of this results announcement.\nIncreasing Share Repurchases\nSince April 1, 2021 and through the publication of this results announcement, we repurchased approximately 18.1 million of our ADSs (the equivalent of approximately 144.5 million of our ordinary shares) for approximately US$3,680 million under our share repurchase program. In addition, on August 2, 2021, our board of directors authorized the Company to upsize our Company's share repurchase program from US$10 billion to US$15 billion. This share repurchase program will be effective through the end of 2022.\n\nWe are increasing our share repurchase program from US$10 billion to US$15 billion, the largest share repurchase program in the Company’s history, because we are confident of our long-term growth prospects. Our net cash position remains strong and we have repurchased approximately US$3.7 billion of our ADSs since April 1, 2021.”\nIn June 2021, our China retail marketplaces had 939 million mobile MAUs, representing a quarterly net increase of 14 million. We continue to increase penetration in less-developed areas, reflecting our success in broadening product offerings to meet diverse consumer demand.\n“Alibaba started the new fiscal year by delivering a healthy quarter. For the June quarter, global annual active consumers across the Alibaba Ecosystem reached 1.18 billion, an increase of 45 million from the March quarter, which includes 912 million consumers in China. Over more than twenty years of growth, we have developed a company that spans across both consumer and industrial Internet, with multiple engines driving our long-term growth,” said Daniel Zhang, Chairman and Chief Executive Officer of Alibaba Group. “We believe in the growth of the Chinese economy and long-term value creation of Alibaba, and we will continue to strengthen our technology advantage in improving the consumer experience and helping our enterprise customers to accomplish successful digital transformations.”\n“We delivered strong revenue growth of 34% year-over-year. As we said in last quarter's results announcement, we are investing our excess profits and additional capital to support our merchants and invest in strategic areas to better serve customers and penetrate into new addressable markets,” said Maggie Wu, Chief Financial Officer of Alibaba Group. “We are increasing our share repurchase program from US$10 billion to US$15 billion, the largest share repurchase program in the Company’s history, because we are confident of our long-term growth prospects. Our net cash position remains strong and we have repurchased approximately US$3.7 billion of our ADSs since April 1, 2021.”","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":501,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":148465330,"gmtCreate":1626007269720,"gmtModify":1626007269720,"author":{"id":"3574026172467169","authorId":"3574026172467169","name":"Bobruan","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3574026172467169","authorIdStr":"3574026172467169"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"主要是阿里的自大和强势造成的。","listText":"主要是阿里的自大和强势造成的。","text":"主要是阿里的自大和强势造成的。","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/148465330","repostId":"2150011733","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1634,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":152166562,"gmtCreate":1625276508156,"gmtModify":1625467752168,"author":{"id":"3574026172467169","authorId":"3574026172467169","name":"Bobruan","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3574026172467169","authorIdStr":"3574026172467169"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"如果阿里还是以电商的思维来做本地生活,那么结局只有是失败收场。 阿里如果想把本地生活搞起,必须从外面请人,内部的人没有一个可以搞得好。因为电商的思维和基因已经深深的刻在每一个阿里人的身上了,但本地生活的逻辑似电商却是非电商,所以,如果是电商思维的管理者必须不能重用在本地生活里。 你看美团的地推人员的人数和能力就知道了,本地生活讲究的是陆战和巷战能力,必须靠人走到每个城市每个店铺里面去。你问问阿里现在的管理层有多少是搞地推和销售出身的,他们有多少实战经验。 阿里的电商和云计算为什么成功,就是因为是打出来的,实战出来的和满腔热血奋斗出来的,但在本地生活里,阿里的管理层有谁搞过本地生活业务,有谁真正的下沉到市场里去搏杀过,有谁还有那种满腔热血士气高昂的创业心态? 所以,阿里搞本地生活就像是富二代创业,没有思想压力,没有资金压力,没有激情,虽有野心,但却没有认真去认识自己的不足和没有明确的目标,一味靠砸钱。 如果其它公司也有阿里这样的雄厚资金来搞本地生活的话,任何一家都会比阿里搞得好,因为阿里太骄傲和太有钱了,所以阿里如果没有一批能真正懂本地生活业务的管理人才情况下,如果能成功的话那真的是太阳从西边出了。 如果阿里继续以搞大文娱的那一套来搞本地生活的话那只能是死路一条。不停换帅的军队带来的后果是必然是军心散涣。阿里的本地生活想要搞好,必须脱离阿里,成为一个独立公司,由阿里以外的人来管理,只要是阿里内部的人碰本地生活的业务,谁碰谁倒霉。","listText":"如果阿里还是以电商的思维来做本地生活,那么结局只有是失败收场。 阿里如果想把本地生活搞起,必须从外面请人,内部的人没有一个可以搞得好。因为电商的思维和基因已经深深的刻在每一个阿里人的身上了,但本地生活的逻辑似电商却是非电商,所以,如果是电商思维的管理者必须不能重用在本地生活里。 你看美团的地推人员的人数和能力就知道了,本地生活讲究的是陆战和巷战能力,必须靠人走到每个城市每个店铺里面去。你问问阿里现在的管理层有多少是搞地推和销售出身的,他们有多少实战经验。 阿里的电商和云计算为什么成功,就是因为是打出来的,实战出来的和满腔热血奋斗出来的,但在本地生活里,阿里的管理层有谁搞过本地生活业务,有谁真正的下沉到市场里去搏杀过,有谁还有那种满腔热血士气高昂的创业心态? 所以,阿里搞本地生活就像是富二代创业,没有思想压力,没有资金压力,没有激情,虽有野心,但却没有认真去认识自己的不足和没有明确的目标,一味靠砸钱。 如果其它公司也有阿里这样的雄厚资金来搞本地生活的话,任何一家都会比阿里搞得好,因为阿里太骄傲和太有钱了,所以阿里如果没有一批能真正懂本地生活业务的管理人才情况下,如果能成功的话那真的是太阳从西边出了。 如果阿里继续以搞大文娱的那一套来搞本地生活的话那只能是死路一条。不停换帅的军队带来的后果是必然是军心散涣。阿里的本地生活想要搞好,必须脱离阿里,成为一个独立公司,由阿里以外的人来管理,只要是阿里内部的人碰本地生活的业务,谁碰谁倒霉。","text":"如果阿里还是以电商的思维来做本地生活,那么结局只有是失败收场。 阿里如果想把本地生活搞起,必须从外面请人,内部的人没有一个可以搞得好。因为电商的思维和基因已经深深的刻在每一个阿里人的身上了,但本地生活的逻辑似电商却是非电商,所以,如果是电商思维的管理者必须不能重用在本地生活里。 你看美团的地推人员的人数和能力就知道了,本地生活讲究的是陆战和巷战能力,必须靠人走到每个城市每个店铺里面去。你问问阿里现在的管理层有多少是搞地推和销售出身的,他们有多少实战经验。 阿里的电商和云计算为什么成功,就是因为是打出来的,实战出来的和满腔热血奋斗出来的,但在本地生活里,阿里的管理层有谁搞过本地生活业务,有谁真正的下沉到市场里去搏杀过,有谁还有那种满腔热血士气高昂的创业心态? 所以,阿里搞本地生活就像是富二代创业,没有思想压力,没有资金压力,没有激情,虽有野心,但却没有认真去认识自己的不足和没有明确的目标,一味靠砸钱。 如果其它公司也有阿里这样的雄厚资金来搞本地生活的话,任何一家都会比阿里搞得好,因为阿里太骄傲和太有钱了,所以阿里如果没有一批能真正懂本地生活业务的管理人才情况下,如果能成功的话那真的是太阳从西边出了。 如果阿里继续以搞大文娱的那一套来搞本地生活的话那只能是死路一条。不停换帅的军队带来的后果是必然是军心散涣。阿里的本地生活想要搞好,必须脱离阿里,成为一个独立公司,由阿里以外的人来管理,只要是阿里内部的人碰本地生活的业务,谁碰谁倒霉。","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/152166562","repostId":"2148805030","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3148,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":608589841,"gmtCreate":1638758447394,"gmtModify":1638758447394,"author":{"id":"3574026172467169","authorId":"3574026172467169","name":"Bobruan","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3574026172467169","authorIdStr":"3574026172467169"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"最要换的人还是张勇,没有进取心,战略频频失误。","listText":"最要换的人还是张勇,没有进取心,战略频频失误。","text":"最要换的人还是张勇,没有进取心,战略频频失误。","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":9,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/608589841","repostId":"1194795284","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4010,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":807067406,"gmtCreate":1627989944605,"gmtModify":1627989944605,"author":{"id":"3574026172467169","authorId":"3574026172467169","name":"Bobruan","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3574026172467169","authorIdStr":"3574026172467169"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"the cloud only grew 29%?It is too bad.","listText":"the cloud only grew 29%?It is too bad.","text":"the cloud only grew 29%?It is too bad.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/807067406","repostId":"1169635195","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1169635195","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Providing stock market headlines, business news, financials and earnings ","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Tiger Newspress","id":"1079075236","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1627988246,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1169635195?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-08-03 18:57","market":"hk","language":"en","title":"Alibaba EPS beats by RMB2.27, misses on revenue","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1169635195","media":"Tiger Newspress","summary":" $Alibaba$ posted financial result in premarket, which showed that:. Alibaba Q1 revenue RMB205.74 bln vs. RMB153.75 bln a year ago; FactSet consensus RMB209.11 bln.Alibaba Q1 adj. EPS RMB16.60 vs. RMB14.82 a year ago; FactSet consensus RMB14.33.Revenue was RMB205,740 million , an increase of 34% year-over-year. Excluding the consolidation of Sun Art, our revenue would have grown 22% year-over-year to RMB187,306 million .Annual active consumersof the Alibaba Ecosystem across the world reached app","content":"<p>(August 3) <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BABA\">Alibaba</a> posted financial result in premarket, which showed that:</p>\n<p>Alibaba Q1 revenue RMB205.74 bln vs. RMB153.75 bln a year ago; FactSet consensus RMB209.11 bln.</p>\n<p>Alibaba Q1 adj. EPS RMB16.60 vs. RMB14.82 a year ago; FactSet consensus RMB14.33.</p>\n<p><b>BUSINESS HIGHLIGHTS</b></p>\n<p><b>In the quarter ended June 30, 2021:</b></p>\n<ul>\n <li><b>Revenue</b> was RMB205,740 million (US$31,865 million), an increase of 34% year-over-year. Excluding the consolidation of Sun Art, our revenue would have grown 22% year-over-year to RMB187,306 million (US$29,010 million).</li>\n <li><b>Annual active consumers</b>of the Alibaba Ecosystem across the world reached approximately 1.18 billion for the twelve months ended June 30, 2021, an increase of 45 million from the twelve months ended March 31, 2021. This includes 912 million consumers in China1and 265 million consumers overseas served by Lazada, AliExpress, Trendyol and Daraz.</li>\n <li><b>Income from operations</b> was RMB30,847 million (US$4,778 million), a decrease of 11% year-over-year.<b>Adjusted EBITDA</b>, a non-GAAP measurement, decreased 5% year-over-year to RMB48,628 million (US$7,532 million).<b>Adjusted EBITA</b>, a non-GAAP measurement, decreased 8% year-over-year to RMB41,731 million (US$6,463 million). The year-over-year decreases were primarily due to our investments in strategic areas to capture incremental opportunities, such as Community Marketplaces, Taobao Deals, Local Consumer Services and Lazada, as well as our increased spending on growth initiatives within China retail marketplaces, such as Idle Fish and Taobao Live, and our support to merchants.</li>\n <li><b>Net income attributable to ordinary shareholders</b> was RMB45,141 million (US$6,991 million),and<b>net income</b>was RMB42,835 million (US$6,634 million).<b>Non-GAAP net income</b> was RMB43,441 million (US$6,728 million), an increase of 10% year-over-year, mainly due to an increase in share of profit of equity method investees.</li>\n <li><b>Diluted earnings per ADS</b> was RMB16.38 (US$2.54) and<b>diluted earnings per share</b>was RMB2.05 (US$0.32 or HK$2.46).<b>Non-GAAP diluted earnings per ADS</b>was RMB16.60 (US$2.57), an increase of 12% year-over-year and<b>non-GAAP diluted earnings per share</b>was RMB2.08 (US$0.32 or HK$2.50), an increase of 12% year-over-year.</li>\n <li><b>Net cashprovided by operating activities</b> was RMB33,603 million (US$5,204 million).<b>Non-GAAP free cash flow</b>was RMB20,683 million (US$3,203 million), a decrease compared to RMB36,570 million in the same quarter of 2020, mainly due to the partial settlement in the amount of RMB9,114 million (US$1,412 million) of the RMB18,228 million fine levied earlier this year by China’s State Administration for Market Regulation pursuant to China’s Anti-monopoly Law (the “Anti-monopoly Fine”) and a decrease in profit as a result of our investments in key strategic areas.</li>\n</ul>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/11aa08a1ccb4f80e6867c7e7631297c8\" tg-width=\"719\" tg-height=\"863\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p><b>China Retail Marketplaces</b></p>\n<p>In June 2021, Alibaba's China retail marketplaces had 939 million mobile MAUs, representing a quarterly net increase of 14 million.</p>\n<p><b>Cloud Computing</b></p>\n<p>In the June 2021 quarter, our cloud computing revenue grew 29% year-over-year to RMB16,051 million (US$2,486 million), primarily driven by robust growth in revenue from customers in the Internet, financial services and retail industries.</p>\n<p><b>Cash Flow from Operating Activities and Free Cash Flow</b></p>\n<p>In the quarter ended June 30, 2021, net cash provided by operating activities was RMB33,603 million (US$5,204 million), a decrease compared to RMB50,099 million in the same quarter of 2020. Free cash flow, a non-GAAP measurement of liquidity, decreased to RMB20,683 million (US$3,203 million), from RMB36,570 million in the same quarter of 2020. The year-over-year decreases were mainly due to the partial settlement in the amount of RMB9,114 million (US$1,412 million) of the RMB18,228 million Anti-monopoly Fine and a decrease in profit as a result of our investments in key strategic areas. A reconciliation of net cash provided by operating activities to free cash flow is included at the end of this results announcement.</p>\n<p><b>Increasing Share Repurchases</b></p>\n<p>Since April 1, 2021 and through the publication of this results announcement, we repurchased approximately 18.1 million of our ADSs (the equivalent of approximately 144.5 million of our ordinary shares) for approximately US$3,680 million under our share repurchase program. In addition, on August 2, 2021, our board of directors authorized the Company to upsize our Company's share repurchase program from US$10 billion to US$15 billion. This share repurchase program will be effective through the end of 2022.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/58bf53593de78f5f6e4fa1096d7aae94\" tg-width=\"757\" tg-height=\"793\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>We are increasing our share repurchase program from US$10 billion to US$15 billion, the largest share repurchase program in the Company’s history, because we are confident of our long-term growth prospects. Our net cash position remains strong and we have repurchased approximately US$3.7 billion of our ADSs since April 1, 2021.”</p>\n<p>In June 2021, our China retail marketplaces had 939 million mobile MAUs, representing a quarterly net increase of 14 million. We continue to increase penetration in less-developed areas, reflecting our success in broadening product offerings to meet diverse consumer demand.</p>\n<p>“Alibaba started the new fiscal year by delivering a healthy quarter. For the June quarter, global annual active consumers across the Alibaba Ecosystem reached 1.18 billion, an increase of 45 million from the March quarter, which includes 912 million consumers in China. Over more than twenty years of growth, we have developed a company that spans across both consumer and industrial Internet, with multiple engines driving our long-term growth,” said Daniel Zhang, Chairman and Chief Executive Officer of Alibaba Group. “We believe in the growth of the Chinese economy and long-term value creation of Alibaba, and we will continue to strengthen our technology advantage in improving the consumer experience and helping our enterprise customers to accomplish successful digital transformations.”</p>\n<p>“We delivered strong revenue growth of 34% year-over-year. As we said in last quarter's results announcement, we are investing our excess profits and additional capital to support our merchants and invest in strategic areas to better serve customers and penetrate into new addressable markets,” said Maggie Wu, Chief Financial Officer of Alibaba Group. “We are increasing our share repurchase program from US$10 billion to US$15 billion, the largest share repurchase program in the Company’s history, because we are confident of our long-term growth prospects. Our net cash position remains strong and we have repurchased approximately US$3.7 billion of our ADSs since April 1, 2021.”</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Alibaba EPS beats by RMB2.27, misses on revenue</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nAlibaba EPS beats by RMB2.27, misses on revenue\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1079075236\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Tiger Newspress </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2021-08-03 18:57</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>(August 3) <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BABA\">Alibaba</a> posted financial result in premarket, which showed that:</p>\n<p>Alibaba Q1 revenue RMB205.74 bln vs. RMB153.75 bln a year ago; FactSet consensus RMB209.11 bln.</p>\n<p>Alibaba Q1 adj. EPS RMB16.60 vs. RMB14.82 a year ago; FactSet consensus RMB14.33.</p>\n<p><b>BUSINESS HIGHLIGHTS</b></p>\n<p><b>In the quarter ended June 30, 2021:</b></p>\n<ul>\n <li><b>Revenue</b> was RMB205,740 million (US$31,865 million), an increase of 34% year-over-year. Excluding the consolidation of Sun Art, our revenue would have grown 22% year-over-year to RMB187,306 million (US$29,010 million).</li>\n <li><b>Annual active consumers</b>of the Alibaba Ecosystem across the world reached approximately 1.18 billion for the twelve months ended June 30, 2021, an increase of 45 million from the twelve months ended March 31, 2021. This includes 912 million consumers in China1and 265 million consumers overseas served by Lazada, AliExpress, Trendyol and Daraz.</li>\n <li><b>Income from operations</b> was RMB30,847 million (US$4,778 million), a decrease of 11% year-over-year.<b>Adjusted EBITDA</b>, a non-GAAP measurement, decreased 5% year-over-year to RMB48,628 million (US$7,532 million).<b>Adjusted EBITA</b>, a non-GAAP measurement, decreased 8% year-over-year to RMB41,731 million (US$6,463 million). The year-over-year decreases were primarily due to our investments in strategic areas to capture incremental opportunities, such as Community Marketplaces, Taobao Deals, Local Consumer Services and Lazada, as well as our increased spending on growth initiatives within China retail marketplaces, such as Idle Fish and Taobao Live, and our support to merchants.</li>\n <li><b>Net income attributable to ordinary shareholders</b> was RMB45,141 million (US$6,991 million),and<b>net income</b>was RMB42,835 million (US$6,634 million).<b>Non-GAAP net income</b> was RMB43,441 million (US$6,728 million), an increase of 10% year-over-year, mainly due to an increase in share of profit of equity method investees.</li>\n <li><b>Diluted earnings per ADS</b> was RMB16.38 (US$2.54) and<b>diluted earnings per share</b>was RMB2.05 (US$0.32 or HK$2.46).<b>Non-GAAP diluted earnings per ADS</b>was RMB16.60 (US$2.57), an increase of 12% year-over-year and<b>non-GAAP diluted earnings per share</b>was RMB2.08 (US$0.32 or HK$2.50), an increase of 12% year-over-year.</li>\n <li><b>Net cashprovided by operating activities</b> was RMB33,603 million (US$5,204 million).<b>Non-GAAP free cash flow</b>was RMB20,683 million (US$3,203 million), a decrease compared to RMB36,570 million in the same quarter of 2020, mainly due to the partial settlement in the amount of RMB9,114 million (US$1,412 million) of the RMB18,228 million fine levied earlier this year by China’s State Administration for Market Regulation pursuant to China’s Anti-monopoly Law (the “Anti-monopoly Fine”) and a decrease in profit as a result of our investments in key strategic areas.</li>\n</ul>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/11aa08a1ccb4f80e6867c7e7631297c8\" tg-width=\"719\" tg-height=\"863\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p><b>China Retail Marketplaces</b></p>\n<p>In June 2021, Alibaba's China retail marketplaces had 939 million mobile MAUs, representing a quarterly net increase of 14 million.</p>\n<p><b>Cloud Computing</b></p>\n<p>In the June 2021 quarter, our cloud computing revenue grew 29% year-over-year to RMB16,051 million (US$2,486 million), primarily driven by robust growth in revenue from customers in the Internet, financial services and retail industries.</p>\n<p><b>Cash Flow from Operating Activities and Free Cash Flow</b></p>\n<p>In the quarter ended June 30, 2021, net cash provided by operating activities was RMB33,603 million (US$5,204 million), a decrease compared to RMB50,099 million in the same quarter of 2020. Free cash flow, a non-GAAP measurement of liquidity, decreased to RMB20,683 million (US$3,203 million), from RMB36,570 million in the same quarter of 2020. The year-over-year decreases were mainly due to the partial settlement in the amount of RMB9,114 million (US$1,412 million) of the RMB18,228 million Anti-monopoly Fine and a decrease in profit as a result of our investments in key strategic areas. A reconciliation of net cash provided by operating activities to free cash flow is included at the end of this results announcement.</p>\n<p><b>Increasing Share Repurchases</b></p>\n<p>Since April 1, 2021 and through the publication of this results announcement, we repurchased approximately 18.1 million of our ADSs (the equivalent of approximately 144.5 million of our ordinary shares) for approximately US$3,680 million under our share repurchase program. In addition, on August 2, 2021, our board of directors authorized the Company to upsize our Company's share repurchase program from US$10 billion to US$15 billion. This share repurchase program will be effective through the end of 2022.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/58bf53593de78f5f6e4fa1096d7aae94\" tg-width=\"757\" tg-height=\"793\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>We are increasing our share repurchase program from US$10 billion to US$15 billion, the largest share repurchase program in the Company’s history, because we are confident of our long-term growth prospects. Our net cash position remains strong and we have repurchased approximately US$3.7 billion of our ADSs since April 1, 2021.”</p>\n<p>In June 2021, our China retail marketplaces had 939 million mobile MAUs, representing a quarterly net increase of 14 million. We continue to increase penetration in less-developed areas, reflecting our success in broadening product offerings to meet diverse consumer demand.</p>\n<p>“Alibaba started the new fiscal year by delivering a healthy quarter. For the June quarter, global annual active consumers across the Alibaba Ecosystem reached 1.18 billion, an increase of 45 million from the March quarter, which includes 912 million consumers in China. Over more than twenty years of growth, we have developed a company that spans across both consumer and industrial Internet, with multiple engines driving our long-term growth,” said Daniel Zhang, Chairman and Chief Executive Officer of Alibaba Group. “We believe in the growth of the Chinese economy and long-term value creation of Alibaba, and we will continue to strengthen our technology advantage in improving the consumer experience and helping our enterprise customers to accomplish successful digital transformations.”</p>\n<p>“We delivered strong revenue growth of 34% year-over-year. As we said in last quarter's results announcement, we are investing our excess profits and additional capital to support our merchants and invest in strategic areas to better serve customers and penetrate into new addressable markets,” said Maggie Wu, Chief Financial Officer of Alibaba Group. “We are increasing our share repurchase program from US$10 billion to US$15 billion, the largest share repurchase program in the Company’s history, because we are confident of our long-term growth prospects. Our net cash position remains strong and we have repurchased approximately US$3.7 billion of our ADSs since April 1, 2021.”</p>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"BABA":"阿里巴巴","09988":"阿里巴巴-W"},"is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1169635195","content_text":"(August 3) Alibaba posted financial result in premarket, which showed that:\nAlibaba Q1 revenue RMB205.74 bln vs. RMB153.75 bln a year ago; FactSet consensus RMB209.11 bln.\nAlibaba Q1 adj. EPS RMB16.60 vs. RMB14.82 a year ago; FactSet consensus RMB14.33.\nBUSINESS HIGHLIGHTS\nIn the quarter ended June 30, 2021:\n\nRevenue was RMB205,740 million (US$31,865 million), an increase of 34% year-over-year. Excluding the consolidation of Sun Art, our revenue would have grown 22% year-over-year to RMB187,306 million (US$29,010 million).\nAnnual active consumersof the Alibaba Ecosystem across the world reached approximately 1.18 billion for the twelve months ended June 30, 2021, an increase of 45 million from the twelve months ended March 31, 2021. This includes 912 million consumers in China1and 265 million consumers overseas served by Lazada, AliExpress, Trendyol and Daraz.\nIncome from operations was RMB30,847 million (US$4,778 million), a decrease of 11% year-over-year.Adjusted EBITDA, a non-GAAP measurement, decreased 5% year-over-year to RMB48,628 million (US$7,532 million).Adjusted EBITA, a non-GAAP measurement, decreased 8% year-over-year to RMB41,731 million (US$6,463 million). The year-over-year decreases were primarily due to our investments in strategic areas to capture incremental opportunities, such as Community Marketplaces, Taobao Deals, Local Consumer Services and Lazada, as well as our increased spending on growth initiatives within China retail marketplaces, such as Idle Fish and Taobao Live, and our support to merchants.\nNet income attributable to ordinary shareholders was RMB45,141 million (US$6,991 million),andnet incomewas RMB42,835 million (US$6,634 million).Non-GAAP net income was RMB43,441 million (US$6,728 million), an increase of 10% year-over-year, mainly due to an increase in share of profit of equity method investees.\nDiluted earnings per ADS was RMB16.38 (US$2.54) anddiluted earnings per sharewas RMB2.05 (US$0.32 or HK$2.46).Non-GAAP diluted earnings per ADSwas RMB16.60 (US$2.57), an increase of 12% year-over-year andnon-GAAP diluted earnings per sharewas RMB2.08 (US$0.32 or HK$2.50), an increase of 12% year-over-year.\nNet cashprovided by operating activities was RMB33,603 million (US$5,204 million).Non-GAAP free cash flowwas RMB20,683 million (US$3,203 million), a decrease compared to RMB36,570 million in the same quarter of 2020, mainly due to the partial settlement in the amount of RMB9,114 million (US$1,412 million) of the RMB18,228 million fine levied earlier this year by China’s State Administration for Market Regulation pursuant to China’s Anti-monopoly Law (the “Anti-monopoly Fine”) and a decrease in profit as a result of our investments in key strategic areas.\n\n\nChina Retail Marketplaces\nIn June 2021, Alibaba's China retail marketplaces had 939 million mobile MAUs, representing a quarterly net increase of 14 million.\nCloud Computing\nIn the June 2021 quarter, our cloud computing revenue grew 29% year-over-year to RMB16,051 million (US$2,486 million), primarily driven by robust growth in revenue from customers in the Internet, financial services and retail industries.\nCash Flow from Operating Activities and Free Cash Flow\nIn the quarter ended June 30, 2021, net cash provided by operating activities was RMB33,603 million (US$5,204 million), a decrease compared to RMB50,099 million in the same quarter of 2020. Free cash flow, a non-GAAP measurement of liquidity, decreased to RMB20,683 million (US$3,203 million), from RMB36,570 million in the same quarter of 2020. The year-over-year decreases were mainly due to the partial settlement in the amount of RMB9,114 million (US$1,412 million) of the RMB18,228 million Anti-monopoly Fine and a decrease in profit as a result of our investments in key strategic areas. A reconciliation of net cash provided by operating activities to free cash flow is included at the end of this results announcement.\nIncreasing Share Repurchases\nSince April 1, 2021 and through the publication of this results announcement, we repurchased approximately 18.1 million of our ADSs (the equivalent of approximately 144.5 million of our ordinary shares) for approximately US$3,680 million under our share repurchase program. In addition, on August 2, 2021, our board of directors authorized the Company to upsize our Company's share repurchase program from US$10 billion to US$15 billion. This share repurchase program will be effective through the end of 2022.\n\nWe are increasing our share repurchase program from US$10 billion to US$15 billion, the largest share repurchase program in the Company’s history, because we are confident of our long-term growth prospects. Our net cash position remains strong and we have repurchased approximately US$3.7 billion of our ADSs since April 1, 2021.”\nIn June 2021, our China retail marketplaces had 939 million mobile MAUs, representing a quarterly net increase of 14 million. We continue to increase penetration in less-developed areas, reflecting our success in broadening product offerings to meet diverse consumer demand.\n“Alibaba started the new fiscal year by delivering a healthy quarter. For the June quarter, global annual active consumers across the Alibaba Ecosystem reached 1.18 billion, an increase of 45 million from the March quarter, which includes 912 million consumers in China. Over more than twenty years of growth, we have developed a company that spans across both consumer and industrial Internet, with multiple engines driving our long-term growth,” said Daniel Zhang, Chairman and Chief Executive Officer of Alibaba Group. “We believe in the growth of the Chinese economy and long-term value creation of Alibaba, and we will continue to strengthen our technology advantage in improving the consumer experience and helping our enterprise customers to accomplish successful digital transformations.”\n“We delivered strong revenue growth of 34% year-over-year. As we said in last quarter's results announcement, we are investing our excess profits and additional capital to support our merchants and invest in strategic areas to better serve customers and penetrate into new addressable markets,” said Maggie Wu, Chief Financial Officer of Alibaba Group. “We are increasing our share repurchase program from US$10 billion to US$15 billion, the largest share repurchase program in the Company’s history, because we are confident of our long-term growth prospects. Our net cash position remains strong and we have repurchased approximately US$3.7 billion of our ADSs since April 1, 2021.”","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":501,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":603213864,"gmtCreate":1638412065676,"gmtModify":1638412065676,"author":{"id":"3574026172467169","authorId":"3574026172467169","name":"Bobruan","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3574026172467169","authorIdStr":"3574026172467169"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"阿里的云计算还是可以的,就算阿里的所有业务归零,单凭云计算也可以估值3000亿美金","listText":"阿里的云计算还是可以的,就算阿里的所有业务归零,单凭云计算也可以估值3000亿美金","text":"阿里的云计算还是可以的,就算阿里的所有业务归零,单凭云计算也可以估值3000亿美金","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/603213864","repostId":"2188312530","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2188312530","pubTimestamp":1638325288,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2188312530?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-12-01 10:21","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"芒格错付阿里巴巴?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2188312530","media":"巨潮商业评论","summary":"$阿里巴巴$近期的股价表现也呼应着这一预判:2020年下半年开始的股价回撤,至今甚至已出现了恶化倾向。经过一整年腰斩式下跌之后,阿里巴巴股价的下跌仍在继续,于11月17日出现了跌幅11.13%的大幅单日下跌,并在随后持续下跌接近10%。谁也没想到的是,寒冬中的阿里,最大的温暖竟来自大洋彼岸——对中国企业一直有好感的芒格,通过旗下的Daily Journal买入阿里巴巴并不断增持。","content":"<p>近期<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GS\">高盛</a>在对中国2022年经济发展的研判中预计,明年将是中国除了危机年份之外,历史GDP增速最低的一年(4.8%)。</p>\n<p>一家以“让天下没有难做的生意”为使命的企业,遭遇了天下生意越来越难做的局面,显然不会是什么好事情。</p>\n<p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BABA\">阿里巴巴</a>近期的股价表现也呼应着这一预判:2020年下半年开始的股价回撤,至今甚至已出现了恶化倾向。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f37b8a5cea80d62c9d0ee7f6cf7bfd48\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">阿里巴巴股价表现</p>\n<p>经过一整年腰斩式下跌之后,阿里巴巴股价的下跌仍在继续,于11月17日出现了跌幅11.13%的大幅单日下跌,并在随后持续下跌接近10%。</p>\n<p>中概互联如今的惨状不必细说,而阿里是其中受到政策、产业环境甚至是竞争对手单点狙击最严重的巨头,甚至可以不加之一。<b>包括大量阿里巴巴内部人士在内,已经有不少人对其态度转向悲观。</b></p>\n<p>谁也没想到的是,寒冬中的阿里,最大的温暖竟来自大洋彼岸——对中国企业一直有好感的芒格,通过旗下的Daily Journal买入阿里巴巴并不断增持。</p>\n<p>如果从规模上看,Daily Journal的买入规模其实并不大(相比<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BRK.A\">伯克希尔</a>·哈撒韦),3月持有阿里3750万美元的股票,持仓暴增82.7%后,持仓市值也仅提升至4500万美元。</p>\n<p><b>来自投资泰斗级人物的信心,远比这4500万美元持仓更有价值。</b>但对于芒格来说,即便是4500万美元的持仓也不会轻易买入。Daily Journal的每一笔重仓下注,都暗暗关系到自己的“一世英名”。</p>\n<p>更何况,芒格与巴菲特对待中国企业不同的态度由来已久。</p>\n<h2><b>01 老搭档的态度差异</b></h2>\n<blockquote>\n 除2008年对<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/002594\">比亚迪</a>的投资,以及2003年投资了港股<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/601857\">中国石油</a>之外,巴菲特十多年来没有任何新增投资。\n</blockquote>\n<p>众所周知,芒格本人非常看好比亚迪并毫不吝惜对其的赞赏。今年2月,伴随着比亚迪股价的不断上涨,他再次谈起自己的爱股时,展示出了不同于以往的一面:</p>\n<blockquote>\n 我其实是很少持有像比亚迪这样的股票,(估值)已经高到让你流鼻血的地步。我也是在不断的在学习。我们非常喜欢这家公司,也喜欢管理层,这就是我们的想法,所以我们还是非常忠诚于自己的想法。\n</blockquote>\n<p>出于对比亚迪的认可,芒格甚至强调了自己也在不断的“学习”,<b>这其中暗含的意味不言而喻。</b>而经过了连续两年几乎不断的上涨之后,比亚迪已经排到了伯克希尔·哈撒韦公司持股市值的前列,这是此前从未出现过的事情。</p>\n<p>但巴菲特始终对于中国企业没有太多信任。在过去多年投资方向的拓展中,他先后开始投资科技硬件行业、云计算、新能源等领域,在国别上,介入过德国、韩国和日本等国家的企业,但在<b>中国企业方面,除2008年对比亚迪的投资,以及2003年投资了港股中国石油之外,巴菲特十多年来没有任何新增投资。</b></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/62cacd381b3a2eeb2512d67f98c4f9dd\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00857\">中国石油股份</a>股价表现</p>\n<p>令很多中国价值投资者意难平的是,就连他们心目中与巴菲特价值投资理念最为吻合的茅台,巴菲特也迟迟没有过任何形式的买入操作。</p>\n<p>反而是芒格,通过李录旗下的<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/XIMA\">喜马拉雅</a>基金,间接投资了一些中国的优秀企业,除了比亚迪之外,比较知名的案例还包括了<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/601658\">邮储银行</a>港股。</p>\n<p>巴菲特曾经表示“中国市场很大,有非常多的可能性,如果在中国能找到合适的行业、合适的时间、合适的管理团队,我们会毫不犹豫地投资。”</p>\n<p>但说是一回事,真正投资却又是另外一回事。对比巴菲特对中国企业的态度,更显芒格亲自买入阿里巴巴的难能可贵。</p>\n<h2><b>02 好坏未定的标签</b></h2>\n<blockquote>\n 在政策层面的反垄断之外,来自“市场层面的反垄断”力量甚至更强。\n</blockquote>\n<p>在投资做到一定的阶段之后,高手们的一举一动都被市场所密切关注,并积极寻求效仿的可能。</p>\n<p>最典型者就是高瓴资本在2021年的境遇:任何布局,不论是二级市场买入还是定增还是一级市场投资后的上市,都吸引了大批散户投资者“抄作业”。</p>\n<p>自身对于市场巨大的影响力,也是大佬们面对的压力与风险的一部分:<b>放弃贴在自己身上光辉耀眼的标签是很难的事情,给自己身上贴上一个好坏未定的标签也不容易。</b></p>\n<p>买入阿里巴巴对于芒格来说,就相当于在临近100岁的时候,给自己贴了一个全新的中国互联网标签。</p>\n<p>芒格的投资,对于身处逆境中的阿里来说,是效果卓著的利好。其面向资本市场释放出的价值,远胜CEO张勇接受任何海外媒体的采访。而在账面的盈亏得失之外,芒格却必须为这笔投资付出更大的潜在的声誉风险。</p>\n<p>几乎全球的投资者几乎都已经知道了芒格对阿里巴巴的“重仓买入”(其实只是Daily Journal的重仓),但阿里巴巴所面对的困难却是实实在在的——包括了监管对企业扩张边界的限制,以<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PDD\">拼多多</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DYIN\">抖音</a>、美团为代表的竞争对手的冲击,以及<b>企业文化层面的巨大挑战。</b></p>\n<p>在芒格过去数十年的投资生涯中,他都以“买入优秀公司”闻名于世。在一个艰难不利的环境下投资阿里巴巴,是否会是好的选择?</p>\n<p>至少从2021年的情况来看,这些担忧是被印证的。50%的下跌并没有成为阿里巴巴股价下跌的终点。</p>\n<p>对于阿里来说尤其不利的一点是,在<b>政策层面的反垄断之外,来自“市场力量的反垄断”力量甚至更强。</b>零售行业的新一轮商业模式创新,对于传统电商在资本市场上的估值造成了不利影响。</p>\n<h2><b>03 阿里巴巴重走<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">苹果</a>路?</b></h2>\n<blockquote>\n 如今芒格对阿里巴巴的投资也出现了大幅度的下跌,但这是否意味着未来会如苹果一样被资本市场所重新认知,并恢复上涨?\n</blockquote>\n<p>伯克希尔·哈撒韦投资中国石油和比亚迪,两笔投资双双获得巨大成功。虽然对阿里巴巴的投资仅是在芒格治下不到一亿美元的小账户下进行,但也不免被搬出来比较。</p>\n<p>但三笔投资有着非常明显的不同,甚至可以被归类到三种完全不同的风格逻辑里面:</p>\n<p>对于比亚迪的投资更像是一笔风险投资。在《李录卖飞了比亚迪》一文中,巨潮分析李录在一级市场上有过从业经历,并将这些经验融入到二级市场的投资中,断定王传福是一个“韦尔奇和爱迪生的混合体”,伯克希尔·哈撒韦也因此入股约18亿港元。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f8e6a000959d74932f58d0fd4959ab41\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/01211\">比亚迪股份</a>股价表现</p>\n<p>如今这18亿港元已经变成了将近700亿港元。从投入过程到持股周期到回报数额,这笔投资都有着非常浓厚的早期投资味道,且芒格的介入程度非常高。</p>\n<p>中国石油的投资更像是一笔纯正的巴菲特式投资,买入被低估的周期股投资,当时中国石油港股的市盈率仅有三倍。</p>\n<p>而芒格对于阿里巴巴的投资与这两笔投资都有不同,更接近于巴菲特对苹果公司的投资。对苹果的投资发生于2016年,当时的苹果正处于被资本市场重新认知的阶段——<b>在此之前很长时间,苹果都被认为只是一家硬件企业。</b></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/907bcadec44faf2c2b88b43558032602\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>苹果公司股价表现</p>\n<p>更类似的是,伯克希尔·哈撒韦入股苹果之后,苹果也出现了一波幅度巨大的下跌,以至于有人认为巴菲特的投资失败了。</p>\n<p>如今芒格对阿里巴巴的投资也出现了大幅度的下跌,但这是否意味着未来会如苹果一样被资本市场所重新认知,并恢复上涨?</p>\n<p>芒格的簇拥们、阿里巴巴的股东们都期待着这一天。但如果这笔投资能够最终与伯克希尔·哈撒韦对苹果的投资一样扭转局势,人们需要思考以下的前提条件:</p>\n<blockquote>\n 1.阿里巴巴是否能够在激烈的市场竞争中,给消费者以必选的理由?\n</blockquote>\n<blockquote>\n 2.阿里巴巴是否能够实现估值的提升——从硬件(基础设施)升维到更高层次的、能够被投资者认可并给出高估值的产品?\n</blockquote>\n<blockquote>\n 3.阿里巴巴是否能够在经营层面、管理层面实现顺利平稳的过渡?\n</blockquote>\n<blockquote>\n 4.阿里巴巴是否能够在竞争对手的挑战中越战越勇?\n</blockquote>\n<blockquote>\n 5.阿里巴巴是否能够构筑起被广泛认同的品牌与产品文化?\n</blockquote>\n<p><b>这些问题的回答,会直接展示出阿里巴巴在困境中是否具有足够的韧性</b>,而这些特质要远比一两年内的财务数据是否亮丽更加重要。</p>\n<h2><b>04 写在最后</b></h2>\n<p>芒格本人对于零售企业的投资有很深刻的认知。</p>\n<p>在接受《证券市场红周刊》的采访时,芒格表示自己一生最成功的三笔投资就是巴菲特、Costco、李录。其中Costco就是全球最成功的仓储超市,这家公司及其罕见地在互联网零售企业的冲击中独善其身,2008年以来股价几乎从未下跌,市值已经逼近2500亿元。</p>\n<p>芒格将Costco定位为“通过天才管理成为行业内翘楚的典型”,这与他对王传福的认可有异曲同工之处。</p>\n<p>但芒格曾经评价马云:“我认为马云评论中国政府的做法非常傲慢。这不是马云应该做的。”</p>\n<p>相比之下,<b>他对于中国经济整体的信心更足,也许这才是他选择买入阿里巴巴最核心的原因:</b></p>\n<blockquote>\n “我认为中国人在管理经济方面表现得非常精明,他们在管理经济方面取得了比我们更好的成果,而且我相信他们还能够继续下去。”\n</blockquote>","source":"36kr_stock","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>芒格错付阿里巴巴?</title>\n<style 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margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n芒格错付阿里巴巴?\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-12-01 10:21 北京时间 <a href=https://36kr.com/p/1508024973938437><strong>巨潮商业评论</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>近期高盛在对中国2022年经济发展的研判中预计,明年将是中国除了危机年份之外,历史GDP增速最低的一年(4.8%)。\n一家以“让天下没有难做的生意”为使命的企业,遭遇了天下生意越来越难做的局面,显然不会是什么好事情。\n阿里巴巴近期的股价表现也呼应着这一预判:2020年下半年开始的股价回撤,至今甚至已出现了恶化倾向。\n阿里巴巴股价表现\n经过一整年腰斩式下跌之后,阿里巴巴股价的下跌仍在继续,于11月...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://36kr.com/p/1508024973938437\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b2e0eb6c0d2386d465d375504e74c84e","relate_stocks":{"BK4554":"元宇宙及AR概念","BABA":"阿里巴巴","BK4531":"中概回港概念","QNETCN":"纳斯达克中美互联网老虎指数","BK4534":"瑞士信贷持仓","BK4533":"AQR资本管理(全球第二大对冲基金)","BK4558":"双十一","BK4524":"宅经济概念","BK4535":"淡马锡持仓","BK4527":"明星科技股","BK4538":"云计算","BK4526":"热门中概股","BK4503":"景林资产持仓","BK4122":"互联网与直销零售","BK4505":"高瓴资本持仓","09988":"阿里巴巴-W","BK4504":"桥水持仓","BK4548":"巴美列捷福持仓","BK4565":"NFT概念"},"source_url":"https://36kr.com/p/1508024973938437","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2188312530","content_text":"近期高盛在对中国2022年经济发展的研判中预计,明年将是中国除了危机年份之外,历史GDP增速最低的一年(4.8%)。\n一家以“让天下没有难做的生意”为使命的企业,遭遇了天下生意越来越难做的局面,显然不会是什么好事情。\n阿里巴巴近期的股价表现也呼应着这一预判:2020年下半年开始的股价回撤,至今甚至已出现了恶化倾向。\n阿里巴巴股价表现\n经过一整年腰斩式下跌之后,阿里巴巴股价的下跌仍在继续,于11月17日出现了跌幅11.13%的大幅单日下跌,并在随后持续下跌接近10%。\n中概互联如今的惨状不必细说,而阿里是其中受到政策、产业环境甚至是竞争对手单点狙击最严重的巨头,甚至可以不加之一。包括大量阿里巴巴内部人士在内,已经有不少人对其态度转向悲观。\n谁也没想到的是,寒冬中的阿里,最大的温暖竟来自大洋彼岸——对中国企业一直有好感的芒格,通过旗下的Daily Journal买入阿里巴巴并不断增持。\n如果从规模上看,Daily Journal的买入规模其实并不大(相比伯克希尔·哈撒韦),3月持有阿里3750万美元的股票,持仓暴增82.7%后,持仓市值也仅提升至4500万美元。\n来自投资泰斗级人物的信心,远比这4500万美元持仓更有价值。但对于芒格来说,即便是4500万美元的持仓也不会轻易买入。Daily Journal的每一笔重仓下注,都暗暗关系到自己的“一世英名”。\n更何况,芒格与巴菲特对待中国企业不同的态度由来已久。\n01 老搭档的态度差异\n\n 除2008年对比亚迪的投资,以及2003年投资了港股中国石油之外,巴菲特十多年来没有任何新增投资。\n\n众所周知,芒格本人非常看好比亚迪并毫不吝惜对其的赞赏。今年2月,伴随着比亚迪股价的不断上涨,他再次谈起自己的爱股时,展示出了不同于以往的一面:\n\n 我其实是很少持有像比亚迪这样的股票,(估值)已经高到让你流鼻血的地步。我也是在不断的在学习。我们非常喜欢这家公司,也喜欢管理层,这就是我们的想法,所以我们还是非常忠诚于自己的想法。\n\n出于对比亚迪的认可,芒格甚至强调了自己也在不断的“学习”,这其中暗含的意味不言而喻。而经过了连续两年几乎不断的上涨之后,比亚迪已经排到了伯克希尔·哈撒韦公司持股市值的前列,这是此前从未出现过的事情。\n但巴菲特始终对于中国企业没有太多信任。在过去多年投资方向的拓展中,他先后开始投资科技硬件行业、云计算、新能源等领域,在国别上,介入过德国、韩国和日本等国家的企业,但在中国企业方面,除2008年对比亚迪的投资,以及2003年投资了港股中国石油之外,巴菲特十多年来没有任何新增投资。\n\n中国石油股份股价表现\n令很多中国价值投资者意难平的是,就连他们心目中与巴菲特价值投资理念最为吻合的茅台,巴菲特也迟迟没有过任何形式的买入操作。\n反而是芒格,通过李录旗下的喜马拉雅基金,间接投资了一些中国的优秀企业,除了比亚迪之外,比较知名的案例还包括了邮储银行港股。\n巴菲特曾经表示“中国市场很大,有非常多的可能性,如果在中国能找到合适的行业、合适的时间、合适的管理团队,我们会毫不犹豫地投资。”\n但说是一回事,真正投资却又是另外一回事。对比巴菲特对中国企业的态度,更显芒格亲自买入阿里巴巴的难能可贵。\n02 好坏未定的标签\n\n 在政策层面的反垄断之外,来自“市场层面的反垄断”力量甚至更强。\n\n在投资做到一定的阶段之后,高手们的一举一动都被市场所密切关注,并积极寻求效仿的可能。\n最典型者就是高瓴资本在2021年的境遇:任何布局,不论是二级市场买入还是定增还是一级市场投资后的上市,都吸引了大批散户投资者“抄作业”。\n自身对于市场巨大的影响力,也是大佬们面对的压力与风险的一部分:放弃贴在自己身上光辉耀眼的标签是很难的事情,给自己身上贴上一个好坏未定的标签也不容易。\n买入阿里巴巴对于芒格来说,就相当于在临近100岁的时候,给自己贴了一个全新的中国互联网标签。\n芒格的投资,对于身处逆境中的阿里来说,是效果卓著的利好。其面向资本市场释放出的价值,远胜CEO张勇接受任何海外媒体的采访。而在账面的盈亏得失之外,芒格却必须为这笔投资付出更大的潜在的声誉风险。\n几乎全球的投资者几乎都已经知道了芒格对阿里巴巴的“重仓买入”(其实只是Daily Journal的重仓),但阿里巴巴所面对的困难却是实实在在的——包括了监管对企业扩张边界的限制,以拼多多、抖音、美团为代表的竞争对手的冲击,以及企业文化层面的巨大挑战。\n在芒格过去数十年的投资生涯中,他都以“买入优秀公司”闻名于世。在一个艰难不利的环境下投资阿里巴巴,是否会是好的选择?\n至少从2021年的情况来看,这些担忧是被印证的。50%的下跌并没有成为阿里巴巴股价下跌的终点。\n对于阿里来说尤其不利的一点是,在政策层面的反垄断之外,来自“市场力量的反垄断”力量甚至更强。零售行业的新一轮商业模式创新,对于传统电商在资本市场上的估值造成了不利影响。\n03 阿里巴巴重走苹果路?\n\n 如今芒格对阿里巴巴的投资也出现了大幅度的下跌,但这是否意味着未来会如苹果一样被资本市场所重新认知,并恢复上涨?\n\n伯克希尔·哈撒韦投资中国石油和比亚迪,两笔投资双双获得巨大成功。虽然对阿里巴巴的投资仅是在芒格治下不到一亿美元的小账户下进行,但也不免被搬出来比较。\n但三笔投资有着非常明显的不同,甚至可以被归类到三种完全不同的风格逻辑里面:\n对于比亚迪的投资更像是一笔风险投资。在《李录卖飞了比亚迪》一文中,巨潮分析李录在一级市场上有过从业经历,并将这些经验融入到二级市场的投资中,断定王传福是一个“韦尔奇和爱迪生的混合体”,伯克希尔·哈撒韦也因此入股约18亿港元。\n\n比亚迪股份股价表现\n如今这18亿港元已经变成了将近700亿港元。从投入过程到持股周期到回报数额,这笔投资都有着非常浓厚的早期投资味道,且芒格的介入程度非常高。\n中国石油的投资更像是一笔纯正的巴菲特式投资,买入被低估的周期股投资,当时中国石油港股的市盈率仅有三倍。\n而芒格对于阿里巴巴的投资与这两笔投资都有不同,更接近于巴菲特对苹果公司的投资。对苹果的投资发生于2016年,当时的苹果正处于被资本市场重新认知的阶段——在此之前很长时间,苹果都被认为只是一家硬件企业。\n\n苹果公司股价表现\n更类似的是,伯克希尔·哈撒韦入股苹果之后,苹果也出现了一波幅度巨大的下跌,以至于有人认为巴菲特的投资失败了。\n如今芒格对阿里巴巴的投资也出现了大幅度的下跌,但这是否意味着未来会如苹果一样被资本市场所重新认知,并恢复上涨?\n芒格的簇拥们、阿里巴巴的股东们都期待着这一天。但如果这笔投资能够最终与伯克希尔·哈撒韦对苹果的投资一样扭转局势,人们需要思考以下的前提条件:\n\n 1.阿里巴巴是否能够在激烈的市场竞争中,给消费者以必选的理由?\n\n\n 2.阿里巴巴是否能够实现估值的提升——从硬件(基础设施)升维到更高层次的、能够被投资者认可并给出高估值的产品?\n\n\n 3.阿里巴巴是否能够在经营层面、管理层面实现顺利平稳的过渡?\n\n\n 4.阿里巴巴是否能够在竞争对手的挑战中越战越勇?\n\n\n 5.阿里巴巴是否能够构筑起被广泛认同的品牌与产品文化?\n\n这些问题的回答,会直接展示出阿里巴巴在困境中是否具有足够的韧性,而这些特质要远比一两年内的财务数据是否亮丽更加重要。\n04 写在最后\n芒格本人对于零售企业的投资有很深刻的认知。\n在接受《证券市场红周刊》的采访时,芒格表示自己一生最成功的三笔投资就是巴菲特、Costco、李录。其中Costco就是全球最成功的仓储超市,这家公司及其罕见地在互联网零售企业的冲击中独善其身,2008年以来股价几乎从未下跌,市值已经逼近2500亿元。\n芒格将Costco定位为“通过天才管理成为行业内翘楚的典型”,这与他对王传福的认可有异曲同工之处。\n但芒格曾经评价马云:“我认为马云评论中国政府的做法非常傲慢。这不是马云应该做的。”\n相比之下,他对于中国经济整体的信心更足,也许这才是他选择买入阿里巴巴最核心的原因:\n\n “我认为中国人在管理经济方面表现得非常精明,他们在管理经济方面取得了比我们更好的成果,而且我相信他们还能够继续下去。”","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2281,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3566883436258014","authorId":"3566883436258014","name":"一罐寡言","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4ff13f0a1a057754aba98d739e135be7","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3566883436258014","authorIdStr":"3566883436258014"},"content":"阿里云本质上还是依靠淘宝的流量的,淘宝完蛋,阿里云立刻失去盈利能力,还有其技术是先进,但抵不住同行都不用啊,现在那个互联网公司不在开发自己的云业务。 唯一能独善其身的估计也就蚂蚁金服吧","text":"阿里云本质上还是依靠淘宝的流量的,淘宝完蛋,阿里云立刻失去盈利能力,还有其技术是先进,但抵不住同行都不用啊,现在那个互联网公司不在开发自己的云业务。 唯一能独善其身的估计也就蚂蚁金服吧","html":"阿里云本质上还是依靠淘宝的流量的,淘宝完蛋,阿里云立刻失去盈利能力,还有其技术是先进,但抵不住同行都不用啊,现在那个互联网公司不在开发自己的云业务。 唯一能独善其身的估计也就蚂蚁金服吧"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":877625123,"gmtCreate":1637927766437,"gmtModify":1637927766437,"author":{"id":"3574026172467169","authorId":"3574026172467169","name":"Bobruan","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3574026172467169","authorIdStr":"3574026172467169"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"那其实阿里真的不差","listText":"那其实阿里真的不差","text":"那其实阿里真的不差","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/877625123","repostId":"1153107476","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1301,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":823026641,"gmtCreate":1633566476815,"gmtModify":1633566476815,"author":{"id":"3574026172467169","authorId":"3574026172467169","name":"Bobruan","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3574026172467169","authorIdStr":"3574026172467169"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"可能是电动车多了,用电量增加了,以前没有电动车的时候,很少听到要限电的,假如电动车不断增加,到时缺电会越来越频繁","listText":"可能是电动车多了,用电量增加了,以前没有电动车的时候,很少听到要限电的,假如电动车不断增加,到时缺电会越来越频繁","text":"可能是电动车多了,用电量增加了,以前没有电动车的时候,很少听到要限电的,假如电动车不断增加,到时缺电会越来越频繁","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/823026641","repostId":"1148349467","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1148349467","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"提供来自华尔街的观点,观察市场,提供独道的解读视角。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎锐评","id":"1005414032","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1633526141,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1148349467?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-10-06 21:15","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"老虎盘前观察: 新能源是国内电荒的罪魁祸首?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1148349467","media":"老虎锐评","summary":"盘前观察\n美股盘前下跌,比特币持续走高,站上55000美元/枚,日内涨6.79%。(相关阅读:盘前:英伟达向欧盟做出让步,抗疫股成利空“集中营”)\n 新能源是国内电荒的罪魁祸首?\n冬天还未到,全球就突","content":"<p><b>盘前观察</b></p>\n<p>美股盘前下跌,比特币持续走高,站上55000美元/枚,日内涨6.79%。(相关阅读:<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/NW/1123867876\" target=\"_blank\">盘前:英伟达向欧盟做出让步,抗疫股成利空“集中营”</a>)</p>\n<p> <b>新能源是国内电荒的罪魁祸首?</b></p>\n<p>冬天还未到,全球就突然陷入了能源荒。从欧洲天然气价格飙涨,到中国各地拉闸限电,再到OPEC+在关键时刻决定不大幅增加原油产量,各种能源期货价格一路看涨。分析和讨论的文章很多,但最后的结论,总是“新能源是罪魁祸首”。</p>\n<p>动辄就怪新能源这种现象,其实在德州大停电的时候也出现过。年初德州因为寒冷大停电的时候,无数文章都说是德州的风能发电机因为太冷停转,而导致了德州大停电。但最后真实的情况是绝大部分能源损失来自于天然气发电厂因为低温停工,另一个更深层次的原因是德州电网独立,和外界不互通,造成了其它地方电力没法运进德州。但知道真相的人没几个,大家的记忆永远是那几张风能发电机被冻住的照片。</p>\n<p>全球能源市场非常碎片化,不同能源在各地形成的危机原因也不一样,很难用一个大一统的理论去叙述(就连“新冠是元凶”这类万精油,在能源问题上也不能套用)。我前段时间写过天然气在欧洲、美国和中国的情况,今天讨论国内的电荒问题。</p>\n<p>关于国内电荒问题的分析已经非常多,很多人都注意到了电价和煤价的倒挂。的确,目前发电用的动力煤价格一路飙涨(下左图),全国港口动力煤库存也达到了一个相对低点(下右图)。<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fc4aea3da42c9d7525db787fd780fa44\" tg-width=\"959\" tg-height=\"237\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">所以很多分析就会顺藤摸瓜去找动力煤(或者广义上的煤)价格为何飙升。找来找去,无非就是两个原因:一是环保,二是安全——导致国内煤产量没有跟上,从而导致国内电荒。反正,这个锅新能源肯定要背。</p>\n<p>但是,如果我们看国内的煤产量,根据国家统计局的数据:<b>1-8月份,生产原煤26.0亿吨,同比增长4.4%,比2019年同期增长4.2%。</b>也就是说,中国的煤产量在今年实际上是增加的,2020年1-8月因为新冠疫情煤产量略微下降,但是今年前8个月,已经超过了2019年同期水平。下图是我国过去5年的煤产量,总体来说,产量还是稳步增长,只增速变小。<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7b19661600f16fa6f0eddc43d50e3b80\" tg-width=\"756\" tg-height=\"321\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">后来又有一种说法,说今年的煤炭进口不多导致了煤炭价格上涨。根据国家统计局的数据:1-8月,<b>进口煤炭19769万吨,同比下降10.3%。</b>似乎有点道理,不过我国进口的煤炭,只占国内生产量的7%(2亿吨/26亿吨),同比下降10%,也就是说少了0.7%。有影响,但绝对不是主要原因。如果真的是因为进口导致了煤荒电荒,那么这种问题也很好解决——加大进口就好了。有一点需要提一下,根据路透社的图(下图),今年从澳大利亚进口的煤(黄色),确实少了很多,但是从印尼(蓝色)和俄国(红色)的进口量都在增加。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/611b2377435db1f7cf624a19fcf4f8cd\" tg-width=\"567\" tg-height=\"372\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">煤的国内产量在上升,进口量微跌,总量依旧增加。所以硬要说是因为煤荒导致了电荒,这个说法很牵强。所以,我整理了过去国家能源局公布的用电数据,如下表。<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8656ee8375592ed06cbe8b765d0ed22d\" tg-width=\"852\" tg-height=\"195\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">矛盾似乎忽然清晰起来,<b>今年的用电量相较于往年大幅增加,但是发电装机容量的增速,却没有跟上。所以并非是煤荒导致了电荒,而是用电量大幅提高,导致了煤供应短缺造成煤价上涨。</b></p>\n<p> 根据国家能源局的数据,用电量的大头,也是整体增速提高的地方,是工业用电量。今年1-6月份工业用电增量占全社会用电增量的70%。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ae6d0362cb4bcbe072bbb691bd68473a\" tg-width=\"535\" tg-height=\"255\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">所以,下一个问题就是,工业用电量为何增速如此之快?</p>\n<p>我把今年每个月的累计增速统计在下表。可以看出来,今年1-3月的增速最强,但是8月份增速已经降下来了(和限电有一定关系)。这个趋势,和今年的GDP的增速模式一致:第一季度中国GDP增速18.3%,第二季度增速7.9%。<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0511dbe3263ece0c2229054a419de7b4\" tg-width=\"938\" tg-height=\"115\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">总结一下。今天的电荒,不是因为煤荒导致,而是因为工业用电增长过快(煤荒只是因为用电太多,才导致煤不足)。而工业用电过快增长的原因,是因为国内的生产需求高,GDP增长快。</p>\n<p> 最后,请不要动不动就怪新能源。</p>\n<p><b>大市(美东时间9:00 AM)</b></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c179c5afad661528619a7484f25a5b9d\" tg-width=\"784\" tg-height=\"415\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><b>公司新闻</b></p>\n<p><b>爱奇艺(IQ):考虑筹集$5亿,最快今年年底在香港二次上市。</b></p>\n<p><b> 辉瑞(PFE)& BioNTech(BNTX):接种5个月后预防感染有效率降至47%。</b>《柳叶刀》最新研究显示,接种两剂疫苗5个月后,预防感染新冠病毒的有效率降至47%,但在预防与新冠感染相关的入院治疗方面,有效率仍保持在约90%。</p>\n<p><b> 挪威邮轮(NCLH):预计年底之前恢复75%游轮运营,明年4月1日全面恢复。</b>目前挪威邮轮有8艘船正在航行,旅客上船前必须接种疫苗。尚未有疫苗接种资格的儿童被禁止登上邮轮。</p>\n<p><b> 特斯拉(TSLA):上调Model 3/Y的美国售价。</b>Model 3标准续航版和高性能版各自提价$1,000,长续航版未涨价;Model Y长续航版及高性能版均提价$1,000。</p>\n<p><b>Facebook(FB):扎克伯格回应前员工指控,否认将利润置于用户安全之上。</b>扎克伯格呼吁国会更新互联网法规,以确定青少年使用互联网服务的年龄、科技公司应如何验证用户的年龄以及公司应如何平衡给予孩子隐私和让父母了解孩子的上网活动。</p>\n<p><b> Palantir(PLTR):获得美国军方价值$8.23亿的合同。</b>该公司将为军方提供覆盖多个安全类别的全球联合情报数据结构和分析平台,以支持世界各地的军方情报用户。</p>\n<p><b> 百事(PEP):随着供应中断持续,价格可能再次上涨。</b>百事CFO约翰斯顿表示,预计多数供应链中断将在2021年底前缓和,但明年1季度价格可能出现一些上涨。</p>\n<p><b> 英伟达(NVDA):在Arm收购问题上向欧盟做出让步。</b>欧盟反垄断执法机构没有提供与政策相符的让步细节,将最后期限定在10月27日。</p>\n<p><b> 台积电(TSM):将于2050年达到净零排放目标。</b></p>\n<p><b> IBM(IBM)&本田汽车(HMC):就欧洲财务和采购业务签署新协议。</b>根据该协议,IBM计划管理和运营本田在欧洲的财务和采购业务。</p>\n<p><b> 亚马逊(AMZN):CEO Jassy表示,视频游戏或成亚马逊最大娱乐业务。</b>一周前,亚马逊发布了PC版大型多人在线游戏《新世界》。 Jassy表示,这款游戏有一个“良好的开端”,每天拥有数百万活跃玩家。</p>\n<p><b>亚马逊(AMZN):在英国开设首家非食品实体店,利用线上销售数据决定售卖货品。</b>该实体店将提供其最畅销的书籍、电子产品、玩具、游戏和家庭用品系列。</p>\n<p><b> Netflix(NFLX):在网上商店中增加了跟《鱿鱼游戏》有关的周边产品。</b>Netflix称《鱿鱼游戏》可能会成为其最受欢迎的原创剧集。</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>老虎盘前观察: 新能源是国内电荒的罪魁祸首?</title>\n<style 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margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n老虎盘前观察: 新能源是国内电荒的罪魁祸首?\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1005414032\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎锐评 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2021-10-06 21:15</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>盘前观察</b></p>\n<p>美股盘前下跌,比特币持续走高,站上55000美元/枚,日内涨6.79%。(相关阅读:<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/NW/1123867876\" target=\"_blank\">盘前:英伟达向欧盟做出让步,抗疫股成利空“集中营”</a>)</p>\n<p> <b>新能源是国内电荒的罪魁祸首?</b></p>\n<p>冬天还未到,全球就突然陷入了能源荒。从欧洲天然气价格飙涨,到中国各地拉闸限电,再到OPEC+在关键时刻决定不大幅增加原油产量,各种能源期货价格一路看涨。分析和讨论的文章很多,但最后的结论,总是“新能源是罪魁祸首”。</p>\n<p>动辄就怪新能源这种现象,其实在德州大停电的时候也出现过。年初德州因为寒冷大停电的时候,无数文章都说是德州的风能发电机因为太冷停转,而导致了德州大停电。但最后真实的情况是绝大部分能源损失来自于天然气发电厂因为低温停工,另一个更深层次的原因是德州电网独立,和外界不互通,造成了其它地方电力没法运进德州。但知道真相的人没几个,大家的记忆永远是那几张风能发电机被冻住的照片。</p>\n<p>全球能源市场非常碎片化,不同能源在各地形成的危机原因也不一样,很难用一个大一统的理论去叙述(就连“新冠是元凶”这类万精油,在能源问题上也不能套用)。我前段时间写过天然气在欧洲、美国和中国的情况,今天讨论国内的电荒问题。</p>\n<p>关于国内电荒问题的分析已经非常多,很多人都注意到了电价和煤价的倒挂。的确,目前发电用的动力煤价格一路飙涨(下左图),全国港口动力煤库存也达到了一个相对低点(下右图)。<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fc4aea3da42c9d7525db787fd780fa44\" tg-width=\"959\" tg-height=\"237\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">所以很多分析就会顺藤摸瓜去找动力煤(或者广义上的煤)价格为何飙升。找来找去,无非就是两个原因:一是环保,二是安全——导致国内煤产量没有跟上,从而导致国内电荒。反正,这个锅新能源肯定要背。</p>\n<p>但是,如果我们看国内的煤产量,根据国家统计局的数据:<b>1-8月份,生产原煤26.0亿吨,同比增长4.4%,比2019年同期增长4.2%。</b>也就是说,中国的煤产量在今年实际上是增加的,2020年1-8月因为新冠疫情煤产量略微下降,但是今年前8个月,已经超过了2019年同期水平。下图是我国过去5年的煤产量,总体来说,产量还是稳步增长,只增速变小。<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7b19661600f16fa6f0eddc43d50e3b80\" tg-width=\"756\" tg-height=\"321\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">后来又有一种说法,说今年的煤炭进口不多导致了煤炭价格上涨。根据国家统计局的数据:1-8月,<b>进口煤炭19769万吨,同比下降10.3%。</b>似乎有点道理,不过我国进口的煤炭,只占国内生产量的7%(2亿吨/26亿吨),同比下降10%,也就是说少了0.7%。有影响,但绝对不是主要原因。如果真的是因为进口导致了煤荒电荒,那么这种问题也很好解决——加大进口就好了。有一点需要提一下,根据路透社的图(下图),今年从澳大利亚进口的煤(黄色),确实少了很多,但是从印尼(蓝色)和俄国(红色)的进口量都在增加。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/611b2377435db1f7cf624a19fcf4f8cd\" tg-width=\"567\" tg-height=\"372\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">煤的国内产量在上升,进口量微跌,总量依旧增加。所以硬要说是因为煤荒导致了电荒,这个说法很牵强。所以,我整理了过去国家能源局公布的用电数据,如下表。<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8656ee8375592ed06cbe8b765d0ed22d\" tg-width=\"852\" tg-height=\"195\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">矛盾似乎忽然清晰起来,<b>今年的用电量相较于往年大幅增加,但是发电装机容量的增速,却没有跟上。所以并非是煤荒导致了电荒,而是用电量大幅提高,导致了煤供应短缺造成煤价上涨。</b></p>\n<p> 根据国家能源局的数据,用电量的大头,也是整体增速提高的地方,是工业用电量。今年1-6月份工业用电增量占全社会用电增量的70%。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ae6d0362cb4bcbe072bbb691bd68473a\" tg-width=\"535\" tg-height=\"255\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">所以,下一个问题就是,工业用电量为何增速如此之快?</p>\n<p>我把今年每个月的累计增速统计在下表。可以看出来,今年1-3月的增速最强,但是8月份增速已经降下来了(和限电有一定关系)。这个趋势,和今年的GDP的增速模式一致:第一季度中国GDP增速18.3%,第二季度增速7.9%。<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0511dbe3263ece0c2229054a419de7b4\" tg-width=\"938\" tg-height=\"115\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">总结一下。今天的电荒,不是因为煤荒导致,而是因为工业用电增长过快(煤荒只是因为用电太多,才导致煤不足)。而工业用电过快增长的原因,是因为国内的生产需求高,GDP增长快。</p>\n<p> 最后,请不要动不动就怪新能源。</p>\n<p><b>大市(美东时间9:00 AM)</b></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c179c5afad661528619a7484f25a5b9d\" tg-width=\"784\" tg-height=\"415\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><b>公司新闻</b></p>\n<p><b>爱奇艺(IQ):考虑筹集$5亿,最快今年年底在香港二次上市。</b></p>\n<p><b> 辉瑞(PFE)& BioNTech(BNTX):接种5个月后预防感染有效率降至47%。</b>《柳叶刀》最新研究显示,接种两剂疫苗5个月后,预防感染新冠病毒的有效率降至47%,但在预防与新冠感染相关的入院治疗方面,有效率仍保持在约90%。</p>\n<p><b> 挪威邮轮(NCLH):预计年底之前恢复75%游轮运营,明年4月1日全面恢复。</b>目前挪威邮轮有8艘船正在航行,旅客上船前必须接种疫苗。尚未有疫苗接种资格的儿童被禁止登上邮轮。</p>\n<p><b> 特斯拉(TSLA):上调Model 3/Y的美国售价。</b>Model 3标准续航版和高性能版各自提价$1,000,长续航版未涨价;Model Y长续航版及高性能版均提价$1,000。</p>\n<p><b>Facebook(FB):扎克伯格回应前员工指控,否认将利润置于用户安全之上。</b>扎克伯格呼吁国会更新互联网法规,以确定青少年使用互联网服务的年龄、科技公司应如何验证用户的年龄以及公司应如何平衡给予孩子隐私和让父母了解孩子的上网活动。</p>\n<p><b> Palantir(PLTR):获得美国军方价值$8.23亿的合同。</b>该公司将为军方提供覆盖多个安全类别的全球联合情报数据结构和分析平台,以支持世界各地的军方情报用户。</p>\n<p><b> 百事(PEP):随着供应中断持续,价格可能再次上涨。</b>百事CFO约翰斯顿表示,预计多数供应链中断将在2021年底前缓和,但明年1季度价格可能出现一些上涨。</p>\n<p><b> 英伟达(NVDA):在Arm收购问题上向欧盟做出让步。</b>欧盟反垄断执法机构没有提供与政策相符的让步细节,将最后期限定在10月27日。</p>\n<p><b> 台积电(TSM):将于2050年达到净零排放目标。</b></p>\n<p><b> IBM(IBM)&本田汽车(HMC):就欧洲财务和采购业务签署新协议。</b>根据该协议,IBM计划管理和运营本田在欧洲的财务和采购业务。</p>\n<p><b> 亚马逊(AMZN):CEO Jassy表示,视频游戏或成亚马逊最大娱乐业务。</b>一周前,亚马逊发布了PC版大型多人在线游戏《新世界》。 Jassy表示,这款游戏有一个“良好的开端”,每天拥有数百万活跃玩家。</p>\n<p><b>亚马逊(AMZN):在英国开设首家非食品实体店,利用线上销售数据决定售卖货品。</b>该实体店将提供其最畅销的书籍、电子产品、玩具、游戏和家庭用品系列。</p>\n<p><b> Netflix(NFLX):在网上商店中增加了跟《鱿鱼游戏》有关的周边产品。</b>Netflix称《鱿鱼游戏》可能会成为其最受欢迎的原创剧集。</p>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9e51dca4aea5a4f4975d48e2264c0446","relate_stocks":{".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".DJI":"道琼斯"},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1148349467","content_text":"盘前观察\n美股盘前下跌,比特币持续走高,站上55000美元/枚,日内涨6.79%。(相关阅读:盘前:英伟达向欧盟做出让步,抗疫股成利空“集中营”)\n 新能源是国内电荒的罪魁祸首?\n冬天还未到,全球就突然陷入了能源荒。从欧洲天然气价格飙涨,到中国各地拉闸限电,再到OPEC+在关键时刻决定不大幅增加原油产量,各种能源期货价格一路看涨。分析和讨论的文章很多,但最后的结论,总是“新能源是罪魁祸首”。\n动辄就怪新能源这种现象,其实在德州大停电的时候也出现过。年初德州因为寒冷大停电的时候,无数文章都说是德州的风能发电机因为太冷停转,而导致了德州大停电。但最后真实的情况是绝大部分能源损失来自于天然气发电厂因为低温停工,另一个更深层次的原因是德州电网独立,和外界不互通,造成了其它地方电力没法运进德州。但知道真相的人没几个,大家的记忆永远是那几张风能发电机被冻住的照片。\n全球能源市场非常碎片化,不同能源在各地形成的危机原因也不一样,很难用一个大一统的理论去叙述(就连“新冠是元凶”这类万精油,在能源问题上也不能套用)。我前段时间写过天然气在欧洲、美国和中国的情况,今天讨论国内的电荒问题。\n关于国内电荒问题的分析已经非常多,很多人都注意到了电价和煤价的倒挂。的确,目前发电用的动力煤价格一路飙涨(下左图),全国港口动力煤库存也达到了一个相对低点(下右图)。所以很多分析就会顺藤摸瓜去找动力煤(或者广义上的煤)价格为何飙升。找来找去,无非就是两个原因:一是环保,二是安全——导致国内煤产量没有跟上,从而导致国内电荒。反正,这个锅新能源肯定要背。\n但是,如果我们看国内的煤产量,根据国家统计局的数据:1-8月份,生产原煤26.0亿吨,同比增长4.4%,比2019年同期增长4.2%。也就是说,中国的煤产量在今年实际上是增加的,2020年1-8月因为新冠疫情煤产量略微下降,但是今年前8个月,已经超过了2019年同期水平。下图是我国过去5年的煤产量,总体来说,产量还是稳步增长,只增速变小。后来又有一种说法,说今年的煤炭进口不多导致了煤炭价格上涨。根据国家统计局的数据:1-8月,进口煤炭19769万吨,同比下降10.3%。似乎有点道理,不过我国进口的煤炭,只占国内生产量的7%(2亿吨/26亿吨),同比下降10%,也就是说少了0.7%。有影响,但绝对不是主要原因。如果真的是因为进口导致了煤荒电荒,那么这种问题也很好解决——加大进口就好了。有一点需要提一下,根据路透社的图(下图),今年从澳大利亚进口的煤(黄色),确实少了很多,但是从印尼(蓝色)和俄国(红色)的进口量都在增加。\n煤的国内产量在上升,进口量微跌,总量依旧增加。所以硬要说是因为煤荒导致了电荒,这个说法很牵强。所以,我整理了过去国家能源局公布的用电数据,如下表。矛盾似乎忽然清晰起来,今年的用电量相较于往年大幅增加,但是发电装机容量的增速,却没有跟上。所以并非是煤荒导致了电荒,而是用电量大幅提高,导致了煤供应短缺造成煤价上涨。\n 根据国家能源局的数据,用电量的大头,也是整体增速提高的地方,是工业用电量。今年1-6月份工业用电增量占全社会用电增量的70%。\n所以,下一个问题就是,工业用电量为何增速如此之快?\n我把今年每个月的累计增速统计在下表。可以看出来,今年1-3月的增速最强,但是8月份增速已经降下来了(和限电有一定关系)。这个趋势,和今年的GDP的增速模式一致:第一季度中国GDP增速18.3%,第二季度增速7.9%。总结一下。今天的电荒,不是因为煤荒导致,而是因为工业用电增长过快(煤荒只是因为用电太多,才导致煤不足)。而工业用电过快增长的原因,是因为国内的生产需求高,GDP增长快。\n 最后,请不要动不动就怪新能源。\n大市(美东时间9:00 AM)\n公司新闻\n爱奇艺(IQ):考虑筹集$5亿,最快今年年底在香港二次上市。\n 辉瑞(PFE)& BioNTech(BNTX):接种5个月后预防感染有效率降至47%。《柳叶刀》最新研究显示,接种两剂疫苗5个月后,预防感染新冠病毒的有效率降至47%,但在预防与新冠感染相关的入院治疗方面,有效率仍保持在约90%。\n 挪威邮轮(NCLH):预计年底之前恢复75%游轮运营,明年4月1日全面恢复。目前挪威邮轮有8艘船正在航行,旅客上船前必须接种疫苗。尚未有疫苗接种资格的儿童被禁止登上邮轮。\n 特斯拉(TSLA):上调Model 3/Y的美国售价。Model 3标准续航版和高性能版各自提价$1,000,长续航版未涨价;Model Y长续航版及高性能版均提价$1,000。\nFacebook(FB):扎克伯格回应前员工指控,否认将利润置于用户安全之上。扎克伯格呼吁国会更新互联网法规,以确定青少年使用互联网服务的年龄、科技公司应如何验证用户的年龄以及公司应如何平衡给予孩子隐私和让父母了解孩子的上网活动。\n Palantir(PLTR):获得美国军方价值$8.23亿的合同。该公司将为军方提供覆盖多个安全类别的全球联合情报数据结构和分析平台,以支持世界各地的军方情报用户。\n 百事(PEP):随着供应中断持续,价格可能再次上涨。百事CFO约翰斯顿表示,预计多数供应链中断将在2021年底前缓和,但明年1季度价格可能出现一些上涨。\n 英伟达(NVDA):在Arm收购问题上向欧盟做出让步。欧盟反垄断执法机构没有提供与政策相符的让步细节,将最后期限定在10月27日。\n 台积电(TSM):将于2050年达到净零排放目标。\n IBM(IBM)&本田汽车(HMC):就欧洲财务和采购业务签署新协议。根据该协议,IBM计划管理和运营本田在欧洲的财务和采购业务。\n 亚马逊(AMZN):CEO Jassy表示,视频游戏或成亚马逊最大娱乐业务。一周前,亚马逊发布了PC版大型多人在线游戏《新世界》。 Jassy表示,这款游戏有一个“良好的开端”,每天拥有数百万活跃玩家。\n亚马逊(AMZN):在英国开设首家非食品实体店,利用线上销售数据决定售卖货品。该实体店将提供其最畅销的书籍、电子产品、玩具、游戏和家庭用品系列。\n Netflix(NFLX):在网上商店中增加了跟《鱿鱼游戏》有关的周边产品。Netflix称《鱿鱼游戏》可能会成为其最受欢迎的原创剧集。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2197,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":148465330,"gmtCreate":1626007269720,"gmtModify":1626007269720,"author":{"id":"3574026172467169","authorId":"3574026172467169","name":"Bobruan","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3574026172467169","authorIdStr":"3574026172467169"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"主要是阿里的自大和强势造成的。","listText":"主要是阿里的自大和强势造成的。","text":"主要是阿里的自大和强势造成的。","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/148465330","repostId":"2150011733","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1634,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":152166562,"gmtCreate":1625276508156,"gmtModify":1625467752168,"author":{"id":"3574026172467169","authorId":"3574026172467169","name":"Bobruan","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3574026172467169","authorIdStr":"3574026172467169"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"如果阿里还是以电商的思维来做本地生活,那么结局只有是失败收场。 阿里如果想把本地生活搞起,必须从外面请人,内部的人没有一个可以搞得好。因为电商的思维和基因已经深深的刻在每一个阿里人的身上了,但本地生活的逻辑似电商却是非电商,所以,如果是电商思维的管理者必须不能重用在本地生活里。 你看美团的地推人员的人数和能力就知道了,本地生活讲究的是陆战和巷战能力,必须靠人走到每个城市每个店铺里面去。你问问阿里现在的管理层有多少是搞地推和销售出身的,他们有多少实战经验。 阿里的电商和云计算为什么成功,就是因为是打出来的,实战出来的和满腔热血奋斗出来的,但在本地生活里,阿里的管理层有谁搞过本地生活业务,有谁真正的下沉到市场里去搏杀过,有谁还有那种满腔热血士气高昂的创业心态? 所以,阿里搞本地生活就像是富二代创业,没有思想压力,没有资金压力,没有激情,虽有野心,但却没有认真去认识自己的不足和没有明确的目标,一味靠砸钱。 如果其它公司也有阿里这样的雄厚资金来搞本地生活的话,任何一家都会比阿里搞得好,因为阿里太骄傲和太有钱了,所以阿里如果没有一批能真正懂本地生活业务的管理人才情况下,如果能成功的话那真的是太阳从西边出了。 如果阿里继续以搞大文娱的那一套来搞本地生活的话那只能是死路一条。不停换帅的军队带来的后果是必然是军心散涣。阿里的本地生活想要搞好,必须脱离阿里,成为一个独立公司,由阿里以外的人来管理,只要是阿里内部的人碰本地生活的业务,谁碰谁倒霉。","listText":"如果阿里还是以电商的思维来做本地生活,那么结局只有是失败收场。 阿里如果想把本地生活搞起,必须从外面请人,内部的人没有一个可以搞得好。因为电商的思维和基因已经深深的刻在每一个阿里人的身上了,但本地生活的逻辑似电商却是非电商,所以,如果是电商思维的管理者必须不能重用在本地生活里。 你看美团的地推人员的人数和能力就知道了,本地生活讲究的是陆战和巷战能力,必须靠人走到每个城市每个店铺里面去。你问问阿里现在的管理层有多少是搞地推和销售出身的,他们有多少实战经验。 阿里的电商和云计算为什么成功,就是因为是打出来的,实战出来的和满腔热血奋斗出来的,但在本地生活里,阿里的管理层有谁搞过本地生活业务,有谁真正的下沉到市场里去搏杀过,有谁还有那种满腔热血士气高昂的创业心态? 所以,阿里搞本地生活就像是富二代创业,没有思想压力,没有资金压力,没有激情,虽有野心,但却没有认真去认识自己的不足和没有明确的目标,一味靠砸钱。 如果其它公司也有阿里这样的雄厚资金来搞本地生活的话,任何一家都会比阿里搞得好,因为阿里太骄傲和太有钱了,所以阿里如果没有一批能真正懂本地生活业务的管理人才情况下,如果能成功的话那真的是太阳从西边出了。 如果阿里继续以搞大文娱的那一套来搞本地生活的话那只能是死路一条。不停换帅的军队带来的后果是必然是军心散涣。阿里的本地生活想要搞好,必须脱离阿里,成为一个独立公司,由阿里以外的人来管理,只要是阿里内部的人碰本地生活的业务,谁碰谁倒霉。","text":"如果阿里还是以电商的思维来做本地生活,那么结局只有是失败收场。 阿里如果想把本地生活搞起,必须从外面请人,内部的人没有一个可以搞得好。因为电商的思维和基因已经深深的刻在每一个阿里人的身上了,但本地生活的逻辑似电商却是非电商,所以,如果是电商思维的管理者必须不能重用在本地生活里。 你看美团的地推人员的人数和能力就知道了,本地生活讲究的是陆战和巷战能力,必须靠人走到每个城市每个店铺里面去。你问问阿里现在的管理层有多少是搞地推和销售出身的,他们有多少实战经验。 阿里的电商和云计算为什么成功,就是因为是打出来的,实战出来的和满腔热血奋斗出来的,但在本地生活里,阿里的管理层有谁搞过本地生活业务,有谁真正的下沉到市场里去搏杀过,有谁还有那种满腔热血士气高昂的创业心态? 所以,阿里搞本地生活就像是富二代创业,没有思想压力,没有资金压力,没有激情,虽有野心,但却没有认真去认识自己的不足和没有明确的目标,一味靠砸钱。 如果其它公司也有阿里这样的雄厚资金来搞本地生活的话,任何一家都会比阿里搞得好,因为阿里太骄傲和太有钱了,所以阿里如果没有一批能真正懂本地生活业务的管理人才情况下,如果能成功的话那真的是太阳从西边出了。 如果阿里继续以搞大文娱的那一套来搞本地生活的话那只能是死路一条。不停换帅的军队带来的后果是必然是军心散涣。阿里的本地生活想要搞好,必须脱离阿里,成为一个独立公司,由阿里以外的人来管理,只要是阿里内部的人碰本地生活的业务,谁碰谁倒霉。","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/152166562","repostId":"2148805030","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3148,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}