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zLp
2023-12-15
喜欢宇辉
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zLp
2022-10-29
说说你对这篇新闻的看法...
百亿私募大佬“私信”曝光，亲历了从业“最困难时光”后，他悟到了什么？
zLp
2021-06-09
这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看
@北美韭菜日记: 六月必买一支股票！99.99%的人都没听过的冷门价值股！
zLp
2021-06-09
这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看
@阳光财经: 美股分析：股价15元，像不像启动之前的特斯拉？
zLp
2021-02-24
说说你对这篇新闻的看法...
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zLp
2021-01-25
这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看
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17:32","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"百亿私募大佬“私信”曝光，亲历了从业“最困难时光”后，他悟到了什么？","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1150415635","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"投资组合需要针对性的变化适应2022年可谓股票私募的“小年”。诸多明星管理人经历了超预期的市场下跌，所管理的产品净值回撤显著。甚至有百亿基金经理直言“心灵被拷问”，和谐汇一的林鹏就是一例。林鹏此前是公","content":"<html><head></head><body><blockquote>投资组合需要针对性的变化适应</blockquote><p>2022年可谓股票私募的“小年”。诸多明星管理人经历了超预期的市场下跌，所管理的产品净值回撤显著。</p><p>甚至有百亿基金经理直言“心灵被拷问”，和谐汇一的林鹏就是一例。</p><p>林鹏此前是公募东方红的“扛把子”，2017年公募基金冠军。2年前他创立私募机构和谐汇一，近两年亲历市场大幅的波动。</p><p>近日，林鹏致信持有人称：过去两年对他这样的偏价值风格的投资人是非常艰难的，这是他从业20多年来最困难的时光。</p><p>经历了这样的困难时光后，他对投资体系做了深刻反思，也有了许多新的领悟：</p><p>比如，<b>投资不应该有浓重的信仰，信仰有时候可能是错误的，而投资需要妥协。</b></p><p>再比如，<b>长期来看，股票的价格会忠实反映企业的真实价值，当然不可避免在特定市场阶段会出现一段时间的失灵。</b></p><p>同时林鹏亦指出，<b>凡是资产都有价格，只要它的价格是低估的或者是严重低估的，它一定会有人买，即使非上市公司也有给它交易的平台</b>。</p><p>所以，他始终认为<b>坚持对企业的深度研究，选择能够长期存在、长期发展，并对社会有正向贡献的行业的投资方式是能久经考验的。</b></p><p>还有许多深层次的总结和体会，都在下文。</p><p><b>“心灵被拷问”</b></p><p>林鹏在信中指出：在相当长的时间，他感觉一直处于“心灵被拷问”的状态。过去一直投资他理解的最优秀的公司，并陪伴它们成长，也因此收获了比较好的投资收益。</p><p>但这两年整个市场因经济、疫情等因素的影响出现了巨大的波动或分化现象，<b>原来对好公司好价格的评判标准似乎失灵了，</b>具有良好基本面的优秀公司如果没有处于某些核心赛道，那么迎接它的就是跌跌不休的股价。</p><p>林鹏还特别谈及对投资信仰的思考：</p><p>“<b>投资不应该有浓重的信仰，信仰有时候可能是错误的</b>，但我始终认为坚持对企业的深度研究，选择能够长期存在、长期发展，并对社会有正向贡献的行业的投资方式是能久经考验的。”</p><p>“长期来看，投资最终是企业未来现金流的折现，股票的价格会忠实反映企业的真实价值，当然不可避免在特定市场阶段会出现一段时间的失灵。”</p><p>总结后的林鹏，对“时间期限”和“妥协”的重要性有了更多的体会。</p><p>在他看来：<b>投资也需要有一定妥协，我们的资金属性毕竟是有一定期限的</b>，我们也没有形成足够长时间的私募投资业绩，让我们的客户能始终相信并跟随我们，<b>因此投资组合需要有针对性的变化和适应。</b></p><p><b>反思港股投资</b></p><p>林鹏在信中透露，他投资组合的回撤主要来自两大块：</p><p>一方面是港股互联网公司的投资；</p><p>另一方面是他研究得最清晰的、投入研究力度最大的、实质上基本面非常良好的消费电子公司。</p><p>他指出了其中思维模式的根源：</p><p>“我们过去习惯于用‘逆向思考’、‘均值回归’的方式去捕捉优质公司错杀的机会，这在大部分环境下是适用的。但放在这两年各项政策频出、黑天鹅事件不断出现的市场环境下，<b>均值回归就可能产生非常大的偏离，这一点尤其体现在港股的投资上。</b>”</p><p>比如说美国通胀这个问题，去年底的时候很难预判到美债收益率可以一度到达4.25%，这对港股的影响是相当之大的。</p><p>由此逻辑出发，他提出了港股投资的反思。</p><p>要放下“均值回归过度的执念”以及“对宏观政策层面不够敏感”，在心理上、行为上对组合的风险管理，对于可能的极端风险做足预案。</p><p>同时，他亦表示，虽然不能判断未来港股市场是否还会有系统性的冲击（后者取决于“人性的复杂”）。但他相信，<b>凡是资产都有价格，只要它的价格是低估的或者是严重低估的，它一定会有人买</b>，即使非上市公司也有给它交易的平台。</p><p>从业这么多年来看，凡是偏离的事情一定会弹回来，没有什么“这次不一样”。就像橡皮筋，你稍微拉一些，它缓和地回弹回去。你拉得非常满，它就会非常快速地弹回去。</p><p><b>未来投资策略</b></p><p>林鹏透露，和谐汇一的产品仓位维持在一个中高的水平，坚持行业分散、个股集中，同时力图保持各方面在一个相对比较均衡的架构。</p><p>A股投资主要布局在数字经济、消费电子、汽车零部件、光伏、基础化工、交通运输等方面；在港股的投资，主要集中在互联网、体育服饰、食品饮料、创新药等。</p><p>林鹏指出：股票指数是多重博弈，宏观、政策等都很难精准预判，几乎没有投资人是完全靠研判政策来实现长期业绩的，但我们通过引入宏观策略研究员以提高对宏观、产业政策的敏感度，希望可以更好实现风险控制。</p><p>他还对持有人称：他投资看的可能相对“超前”，而商业模式和技术进步在短期内都不会产生很大变化，因而我们布局的公司股价今年表现不尽如人意。但人无远虑，必有近忧，优秀的企业更多体现在它可以走得更长远、更稳健，而基本面相对较差的企业可能今年过得还不错，但过几年可能因竞争格局恶化而导致盈利能力下降。</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE 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class=\"meta\">\n\n2022-10-29 17:32 北京时间 <strong>华尔街见闻</strong>\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>投资组合需要针对性的变化适应2022年可谓股票私募的“小年”。诸多明星管理人经历了超预期的市场下跌，所管理的产品净值回撤显著。甚至有百亿基金经理直言“心灵被拷问”，和谐汇一的林鹏就是一例。林鹏此前是公募东方红的“扛把子”，2017年公募基金冠军。2年前他创立私募机构和谐汇一，近两年亲历市场大幅的波动。近日，林鹏致信持有人称：过去两年对他这样的偏价值风格的投资人是非常艰难的，这是他从业20多年来最...</p>\n\n<a href=\"\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e68f18a297e419bae3cc0320b6d8ff4e","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1150415635","content_text":"投资组合需要针对性的变化适应2022年可谓股票私募的“小年”。诸多明星管理人经历了超预期的市场下跌，所管理的产品净值回撤显著。甚至有百亿基金经理直言“心灵被拷问”，和谐汇一的林鹏就是一例。林鹏此前是公募东方红的“扛把子”，2017年公募基金冠军。2年前他创立私募机构和谐汇一，近两年亲历市场大幅的波动。近日，林鹏致信持有人称：过去两年对他这样的偏价值风格的投资人是非常艰难的，这是他从业20多年来最困难的时光。经历了这样的困难时光后，他对投资体系做了深刻反思，也有了许多新的领悟：比如，投资不应该有浓重的信仰，信仰有时候可能是错误的，而投资需要妥协。再比如，长期来看，股票的价格会忠实反映企业的真实价值，当然不可避免在特定市场阶段会出现一段时间的失灵。同时林鹏亦指出，凡是资产都有价格，只要它的价格是低估的或者是严重低估的，它一定会有人买，即使非上市公司也有给它交易的平台。所以，他始终认为坚持对企业的深度研究，选择能够长期存在、长期发展，并对社会有正向贡献的行业的投资方式是能久经考验的。还有许多深层次的总结和体会，都在下文。“心灵被拷问”林鹏在信中指出：在相当长的时间，他感觉一直处于“心灵被拷问”的状态。过去一直投资他理解的最优秀的公司，并陪伴它们成长，也因此收获了比较好的投资收益。但这两年整个市场因经济、疫情等因素的影响出现了巨大的波动或分化现象，原来对好公司好价格的评判标准似乎失灵了，具有良好基本面的优秀公司如果没有处于某些核心赛道，那么迎接它的就是跌跌不休的股价。林鹏还特别谈及对投资信仰的思考：“投资不应该有浓重的信仰，信仰有时候可能是错误的，但我始终认为坚持对企业的深度研究，选择能够长期存在、长期发展，并对社会有正向贡献的行业的投资方式是能久经考验的。”“长期来看，投资最终是企业未来现金流的折现，股票的价格会忠实反映企业的真实价值，当然不可避免在特定市场阶段会出现一段时间的失灵。”总结后的林鹏，对“时间期限”和“妥协”的重要性有了更多的体会。在他看来：投资也需要有一定妥协，我们的资金属性毕竟是有一定期限的，我们也没有形成足够长时间的私募投资业绩，让我们的客户能始终相信并跟随我们，因此投资组合需要有针对性的变化和适应。反思港股投资林鹏在信中透露，他投资组合的回撤主要来自两大块：一方面是港股互联网公司的投资；另一方面是他研究得最清晰的、投入研究力度最大的、实质上基本面非常良好的消费电子公司。他指出了其中思维模式的根源：“我们过去习惯于用‘逆向思考’、‘均值回归’的方式去捕捉优质公司错杀的机会，这在大部分环境下是适用的。但放在这两年各项政策频出、黑天鹅事件不断出现的市场环境下，均值回归就可能产生非常大的偏离，这一点尤其体现在港股的投资上。”比如说美国通胀这个问题，去年底的时候很难预判到美债收益率可以一度到达4.25%，这对港股的影响是相当之大的。由此逻辑出发，他提出了港股投资的反思。要放下“均值回归过度的执念”以及“对宏观政策层面不够敏感”，在心理上、行为上对组合的风险管理，对于可能的极端风险做足预案。同时，他亦表示，虽然不能判断未来港股市场是否还会有系统性的冲击（后者取决于“人性的复杂”）。但他相信，凡是资产都有价格，只要它的价格是低估的或者是严重低估的，它一定会有人买，即使非上市公司也有给它交易的平台。从业这么多年来看，凡是偏离的事情一定会弹回来，没有什么“这次不一样”。就像橡皮筋，你稍微拉一些，它缓和地回弹回去。你拉得非常满，它就会非常快速地弹回去。未来投资策略林鹏透露，和谐汇一的产品仓位维持在一个中高的水平，坚持行业分散、个股集中，同时力图保持各方面在一个相对比较均衡的架构。A股投资主要布局在数字经济、消费电子、汽车零部件、光伏、基础化工、交通运输等方面；在港股的投资，主要集中在互联网、体育服饰、食品饮料、创新药等。林鹏指出：股票指数是多重博弈，宏观、政策等都很难精准预判，几乎没有投资人是完全靠研判政策来实现长期业绩的，但我们通过引入宏观策略研究员以提高对宏观、产业政策的敏感度，希望可以更好实现风险控制。他还对持有人称：他投资看的可能相对“超前”，而商业模式和技术进步在短期内都不会产生很大变化，因而我们布局的公司股价今年表现不尽如人意。但人无远虑，必有近忧，优秀的企业更多体现在它可以走得更长远、更稳健，而基本面相对较差的企业可能今年过得还不错，但过几年可能因竞争格局恶化而导致盈利能力下降。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1183,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":189028678,"gmtCreate":1623234522394,"gmtModify":1623234522394,"author":{"id":"3573958722099572","authorId":"3573958722099572","name":"zLp","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3573958722099572","authorIdStr":"3573958722099572"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看","listText":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看","text":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/189028678","repostId":"119148878","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":119148878,"gmtCreate":1622531046288,"gmtModify":1622680729413,"author":{"id":"3561588897589235","authorId":"3561588897589235","name":"北美韭菜日记","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2d01b6e0504f82d0b06101a70e792206","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3561588897589235","authorIdStr":"3561588897589235"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"\n \n \n 六月必买一支股票！99.99%的人都没听过的冷门价值股！\n 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