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巴山新雨
04-11
这篇文章不错,转发给大家看看
抱歉,原内容已删除
巴山新雨
2021-12-15
$中芯国际(00981)$
都自裁成这熊样了,还用老美制裁吗,这老美,也太没格局了。
巴山新雨
2021-12-15
$中芯国际(00981)$
始劲跌,等你退市的那一天。
巴山新雨
2021-12-15
$中芯国际(00981)$
灵异事件[流泪]
巴山新雨
2021-12-15
$中芯国际(00981)$
中芯绝对见鬼了。
巴山新雨
2021-12-08
$中芯国际(00981)$
愧对眼下行情,还要不要脸?
巴山新雨
2021-07-27
$奈雪的茶(02150)$
什么鬼?
巴山新雨
2021-07-20
$中芯国际(00981)$
。最好宣布退市,至少还能制造一个重磅新闻。
巴山新雨
2021-07-20
$奈雪的茶(02150)$
这是什么鬼茶?绝对TMD有毒!
巴山新雨
2021-07-06
龙头变蛇尾,愧对全国人民的热情和期待呀!
弃千万激励,元老出走,中芯国际还能挑起中国芯逆袭重任吗?
巴山新雨
2021-05-18
$中芯国际(00981)$
扶不起来的阿斗啊
巴山新雨
2021-05-11
这宋姓人太令人作呕了.鄙视你。
抱歉,原内容已删除
巴山新雨
2021-04-21
讲的很精辟,也很全面。
自动驾驶需要一场泡沫
巴山新雨
2021-04-09
$广联工程控股(01413)$
一支每天看着想呕的股票。
去老虎APP查看更多动态
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17:57","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"弃千万激励,元老出走,中芯国际还能挑起中国芯逆袭重任吗?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2149547603","media":"华商韬略","summary":"7月5日,中芯国际发布公告:公司核心技术人员吴金刚博士因个人原因辞职,且不再担任任何职务。今年5月20日公司公布的《2021年创板限制性股票激励计划》中芯国际多名高管在列,周子学、蒋尚义、赵海军、梁孟松均分到40万股,而“少壮派”吴金刚却只得16万股。中芯国际流失的岂止是高管。干不好“人事”,或许将成为阻碍中芯国际的重要因素。","content":"<html><body><article><img src=\"http://inews.gtimg.com/newsapp_match/0/13735568322/0\"/><p><strong>文 | 华商韬略 王寒</strong></p><p><strong>一年内,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SMI\">中芯国际</a>第二次因人事问题上了热搜,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/688981\">中芯国际</a>真干不成“人事”?</strong></p><p>7月5日,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00981\">中芯国际</a>发布公告:公司核心技术人员吴金刚博士因个人原因辞职,且不再担任任何职务。</p><p>消息一出,市场哗然。吴金刚实乃中芯国际的元老级人物,而且还是最为关键的技术研发岗。自2001年——也就是公司成立第二年起,吴金刚就加入中芯国际,一路从助理总监做到了技术研发副总裁。</p><p>在中芯国际,吴金刚主导推动N+1工艺修正,比14纳米功耗降低了57%、逻辑面积小了63%、SOC面积减少了55%,正好和7纳米芯片相当。凭借这一工艺,中芯国际有机会绕过了ASML的EUV光刻机,实现了7纳米芯片。</p><img src=\"http://inews.gtimg.com/newsapp_match/0/13735568331/0\"/><p>中芯国际,这家被视为中国半导体产业“芯希望”的公司,最引人关注部分,却是不同时期的人事斗争,而非技术突破。</p><p>在灵魂人物张汝京被张忠谋设计逼走,善于平衡的“定海神针”江上舟离世后,中芯国际一直被人事动荡干扰,造芯进程屡被波及,比如以CEO王宁国、COO杨士宁二人为首的斗争,以及背后股东的控制权争夺。</p><p>2020年末,中芯国际联席主席梁孟松突然向董事会致函提出离职,原因是在“毫无所悉的情况下,得知蒋尚义将出任公司副董事长一职”,<strong>表示自己没有得到应有的尊重和信任。</strong></p><p>梁孟松在<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSM\">台积电</a>率先研发130nm铜制程,打破了<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/IBM\">IBM</a>的技术霸权;在三星抢先攻克14nm制程,推动三星半导体迅速崛起。</p><img src=\"http://inews.gtimg.com/newsapp_match/0/13735568324/0\"/><p><strong>2017年加入中芯国际后,梁孟松带领团队完成了从28nm到7nm——共五个世代的技术开发,而5nm、3nm技术也将进入全面开发阶段。</strong></p><p>如果说,中芯在没有梁孟松之前,是一步一步走的话,有了梁孟松之后,等于直接开始了百米冲刺,三年走完了台积电十年的路。</p><p>但就这样一个股肱之臣,却差点被逼走了。</p><p><strong>按马云的话说,员工辞职了,一是钱给少了,二是心里受委屈了。于梁孟松,委屈可能大于钱少。</strong></p><p>梁孟松来中芯国际也根本不是为了钱。2020年年8月,美团CEO王兴在<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WB\">微博</a>中透露,梁孟松先生将自己在中芯国际的所有薪水,全部捐给了国内某个教育基金做了公益。王兴称赞他说:“不为赚钱,就为了争一口气,牛!”</p><img src=\"http://inews.gtimg.com/newsapp_match/0/13735568315/0\"/><p>蒋尚义的辈分、资历都比梁孟松高出一截,两人在台积电就有过节。在这种情况下,梁锦松能否持续主导研发大局,或许才是他最为关切的利益。</p><p>中芯国际当然不能放弃这员猛将,不仅把他年薪从34万美元提升至135万美元,还附赠了一套价值2000万的住宅作为安抚,离职风波才暂告平息。</p><p><strong>这次吴金刚出走,或将损失近千万<span>股权激励</span>和超两百万的年薪。是什么原因,让吴金刚将弃之不顾,铁了心要离职呢?</strong></p><p><strong>或许源于自己被轻视。</strong></p><img src=\"http://inews.gtimg.com/newsapp_match/0/13735568320/0\"/><p>今年5月20日公司公布的《2021年创板限制性股票激励计划》中芯国际多名高管在列,周子学、蒋尚义、赵海军、梁孟松均分到40万股,而“少壮派”吴金刚却只得16万股。</p><p>“不患寡而患不均。”</p><p>有半导体产业内的网友表示,“吴博士在中芯国际呆的时间里,特别是近两三年,为了技术研发,几乎放弃了休假。这种心血付出,对于常人来说,是难以想象的。正是爱之深,才会恨之切。也许对于吴博士来说根本算不上痛恨,但是确实内心里非常的遗憾和不满,其实新闻链接里的股票配比,大家可以看得清清楚楚。技术大牛吴博士在核心管理层里是拿得最少的。这其实对于一个把自己所有精力都奉献给研发的人来说,内心里的不满可想而知。”</p><img src=\"http://inews.gtimg.com/newsapp_match/0/13735568333/0\"/><p>中芯国际流失的岂止是高管。2018年中芯国际在上海、北京、深圳工厂的员工流失率分别为52.2%、25.7%、11.7%,整体流失率为22%,较同业均值高出1.3倍。 2019年员工整体流失率降低至17.5%。</p><p>反观台积电,近年的年度离职率一直在5%以下。</p><p><strong>干不好“人事”,或许将成为阻碍中芯国际的重要因素。</strong></p><p>——END——</p><p>欢迎关注【华商韬略】,识风云人物,读韬略传奇。</p><p><strong>版权所有,禁止私自转载!</strong></p><p><strong>部分图片来源于网络</strong></p><p><strong>如涉及侵权,请联系删除</strong></p></article></body></html>","source":"tencent","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>弃千万激励,元老出走,中芯国际还能挑起中国芯逆袭重任吗?</title>\n<style 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}\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n弃千万激励,元老出走,中芯国际还能挑起中国芯逆袭重任吗?\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-07-06 17:57 北京时间 <a href=http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN2021070618003779cf3786&s=b><strong>华商韬略</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>文 | 华商韬略 王寒一年内,中芯国际第二次因人事问题上了热搜,中芯国际真干不成“人事”?7月5日,中芯国际发布公告:公司核心技术人员吴金刚博士因个人原因辞职,且不再担任任何职务。消息一出,市场哗然。吴金刚实乃中芯国际的元老级人物,而且还是最为关键的技术研发岗。自2001年——也就是公司成立第二年起,吴金刚就加入中芯国际,一路从助理总监做到了技术研发副总裁。在中芯国际,吴金刚主导推动N+1工艺修正...</p>\n\n<a href=\"http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN2021070618003779cf3786&s=b\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/51fb9fb4bb9a78041d2403ab1f31481b","relate_stocks":{"688981":"中芯国际","SMI":"VanEck HIP Sustainable Muni ETF","00981":"中芯国际"},"source_url":"http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN2021070618003779cf3786&s=b","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/9a95c1376e76363c1401fee7d3717173","article_id":"2149547603","content_text":"文 | 华商韬略 王寒一年内,中芯国际第二次因人事问题上了热搜,中芯国际真干不成“人事”?7月5日,中芯国际发布公告:公司核心技术人员吴金刚博士因个人原因辞职,且不再担任任何职务。消息一出,市场哗然。吴金刚实乃中芯国际的元老级人物,而且还是最为关键的技术研发岗。自2001年——也就是公司成立第二年起,吴金刚就加入中芯国际,一路从助理总监做到了技术研发副总裁。在中芯国际,吴金刚主导推动N+1工艺修正,比14纳米功耗降低了57%、逻辑面积小了63%、SOC面积减少了55%,正好和7纳米芯片相当。凭借这一工艺,中芯国际有机会绕过了ASML的EUV光刻机,实现了7纳米芯片。中芯国际,这家被视为中国半导体产业“芯希望”的公司,最引人关注部分,却是不同时期的人事斗争,而非技术突破。在灵魂人物张汝京被张忠谋设计逼走,善于平衡的“定海神针”江上舟离世后,中芯国际一直被人事动荡干扰,造芯进程屡被波及,比如以CEO王宁国、COO杨士宁二人为首的斗争,以及背后股东的控制权争夺。2020年末,中芯国际联席主席梁孟松突然向董事会致函提出离职,原因是在“毫无所悉的情况下,得知蒋尚义将出任公司副董事长一职”,表示自己没有得到应有的尊重和信任。梁孟松在台积电率先研发130nm铜制程,打破了IBM的技术霸权;在三星抢先攻克14nm制程,推动三星半导体迅速崛起。2017年加入中芯国际后,梁孟松带领团队完成了从28nm到7nm——共五个世代的技术开发,而5nm、3nm技术也将进入全面开发阶段。如果说,中芯在没有梁孟松之前,是一步一步走的话,有了梁孟松之后,等于直接开始了百米冲刺,三年走完了台积电十年的路。但就这样一个股肱之臣,却差点被逼走了。按马云的话说,员工辞职了,一是钱给少了,二是心里受委屈了。于梁孟松,委屈可能大于钱少。梁孟松来中芯国际也根本不是为了钱。2020年年8月,美团CEO王兴在微博中透露,梁孟松先生将自己在中芯国际的所有薪水,全部捐给了国内某个教育基金做了公益。王兴称赞他说:“不为赚钱,就为了争一口气,牛!”蒋尚义的辈分、资历都比梁孟松高出一截,两人在台积电就有过节。在这种情况下,梁锦松能否持续主导研发大局,或许才是他最为关切的利益。中芯国际当然不能放弃这员猛将,不仅把他年薪从34万美元提升至135万美元,还附赠了一套价值2000万的住宅作为安抚,离职风波才暂告平息。这次吴金刚出走,或将损失近千万股权激励和超两百万的年薪。是什么原因,让吴金刚将弃之不顾,铁了心要离职呢?或许源于自己被轻视。今年5月20日公司公布的《2021年创板限制性股票激励计划》中芯国际多名高管在列,周子学、蒋尚义、赵海军、梁孟松均分到40万股,而“少壮派”吴金刚却只得16万股。“不患寡而患不均。”有半导体产业内的网友表示,“吴博士在中芯国际呆的时间里,特别是近两三年,为了技术研发,几乎放弃了休假。这种心血付出,对于常人来说,是难以想象的。正是爱之深,才会恨之切。也许对于吴博士来说根本算不上痛恨,但是确实内心里非常的遗憾和不满,其实新闻链接里的股票配比,大家可以看得清清楚楚。技术大牛吴博士在核心管理层里是拿得最少的。这其实对于一个把自己所有精力都奉献给研发的人来说,内心里的不满可想而知。”中芯国际流失的岂止是高管。2018年中芯国际在上海、北京、深圳工厂的员工流失率分别为52.2%、25.7%、11.7%,整体流失率为22%,较同业均值高出1.3倍。 2019年员工整体流失率降低至17.5%。反观台积电,近年的年度离职率一直在5%以下。干不好“人事”,或许将成为阻碍中芯国际的重要因素。——END——欢迎关注【华商韬略】,识风云人物,读韬略传奇。版权所有,禁止私自转载!部分图片来源于网络如涉及侵权,请联系删除","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1584,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":194007337,"gmtCreate":1621323144729,"gmtModify":1621323144729,"author":{"id":"3573433876521022","authorId":"3573433876521022","name":"巴山新雨","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b376ba809bbb389d56497f41c4cae26d","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3573433876521022","authorIdStr":"3573433876521022"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00981\">$中芯国际(00981)$</a>扶不起来的阿斗啊","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00981\">$中芯国际(00981)$</a>扶不起来的阿斗啊","text":"$中芯国际(00981)$扶不起来的阿斗啊","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/194007337","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1019,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":199109641,"gmtCreate":1620689143883,"gmtModify":1620689143883,"author":{"id":"3573433876521022","authorId":"3573433876521022","name":"巴山新雨","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b376ba809bbb389d56497f41c4cae26d","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3573433876521022","authorIdStr":"3573433876521022"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"这宋姓人太令人作呕了.鄙视你。","listText":"这宋姓人太令人作呕了.鄙视你。","text":"这宋姓人太令人作呕了.鄙视你。","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/199109641","repostId":"1108301559","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":640,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":378862738,"gmtCreate":1619016306124,"gmtModify":1619016306124,"author":{"id":"3573433876521022","authorId":"3573433876521022","name":"巴山新雨","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b376ba809bbb389d56497f41c4cae26d","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3573433876521022","authorIdStr":"3573433876521022"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"讲的很精辟,也很全面。","listText":"讲的很精辟,也很全面。","text":"讲的很精辟,也很全面。","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/378862738","repostId":"2129871712","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2129871712","pubTimestamp":1619010672,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2129871712?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-04-21 21:11","market":"sh","language":"zh","title":"自动驾驶需要一场泡沫","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2129871712","media":"格隆汇","summary":"多一份冷静好。","content":"<p>一个行业有“钱景”,必然引发一阵“骚乱”。</p>\n<p>十年前是<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/5RE.SI\">智能</a>手机,现在是智能汽车。作为智能汽车最引人注目的应用,自动驾驶无疑最能撩拨产业界的神经。现在,除了<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">特斯拉</a>、Google、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BIDU\">百度</a>这些先行者,连华为也进来了,并放出要吊打<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">特斯拉</a>的豪言。</p>\n<p>吊不吊打特斯拉有待验证,但是华为带来的自动驾驶首先在股市牵起一阵热潮。多个概念股相继涨停。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e90c8e408a27094af0ec585715f7e80c\" tg-width=\"751\" tg-height=\"391\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p><b>从产业前景看,自动驾驶是星辰大海,但是从资本投入来看,它也可能成为吞噬一切的黑洞。</b></p>\n<h3>1</h3>\n<h3><b>双寡头还是百家争鸣?</b></h3>\n<p>计算机革命开启了电子业硬件、软件各自独立又相互依存的格局,智能手机承载了这个衣钵,到现在的智能汽车,很自然会照葫芦画瓢。</p>\n<p>于是,在自动驾驶系统上,出现类似<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">苹果</a>封闭IOS系统和Google开放安卓系统的局面,代表有特斯拉FSD和Google Waymo。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4814e0363c668a26061448ae4aa6a3fd\" tg-width=\"830\" tg-height=\"225\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>但是,和手机操作系统稳定的双寡头格局不同的是,除了特斯拉和Google,还有很多其他的参与者,软硬件通吃的厂商就有通用、小鹏,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BIDU\">百度</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">苹果</a>也说要造车,软件厂商就更多了,名气大如华为,小一点的有Pony.ai、Nuro.ai、图森未来等,图森未来更成为首家登陆美股的自动驾驶软件厂商。</p>\n<p><b>所以,有人提出自动驾驶不应该只有“IOS”和“安卓”,而是百家争鸣的局面。</b></p>\n<p>这种说法也不是没有道理,从理论上讲,智能手机操作系统只需要搭建基础的框架,其他的应用有待开发者去完善,之后再形成完善的生态系统。</p>\n<p>开发者不需要是操作系统公司,可以是第三方公司,觉得哪些功能有需求,就自己在源代码的基础上开发APP,这就类似于政府把地块整理好,把自己应该承担的基础设施建设好,然后供地产商在上面建住宅也好,建商场也行,建厂房、建写字楼都行,最终形成完善的城市设施。</p>\n<p>而且,手机的应用场景非常多,金融的、购物的、社交的、娱乐的,全都给操作系统公司做,等于城市的所有设施都让政府建,这将相当费劲和相当低效,倒不如把这些任务交给第三方开发者,同时让他们分享成果,一旦和众多的开发者、用户绑定在一起,就很容易形成垄断优势,新进入的操作系统就很难有生存空间。</p>\n<p><b>这是妥妥的三赢。</b></p>\n<p>但是,自动驾驶系统不一样,作为用户,你总不能拿到一个“裸系统”,然后再自己去安装刹车APP、方向盘APP、自动泊车APP吧,这得是多差的用户体验?要是忘记安装哪个APP,是不是意味着自动驾驶不了了?更要命的是,忘了装刹车APP就开自动上路,万一该刹车时不刹,那不等于拿人命开玩笑?</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/eb1e4e0bea9f608af01271f29b74384f\" tg-width=\"830\" tg-height=\"376\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>换句话说,<b>开发商给到用户的,不应该是一个仅仅整理好的“地块”,也不应该只建了部分基础设施的“地块”,而应该是一座具备完善设施的“城市”。</b>所以,自动驾驶系统一出来就应该是完善的,不能缺胳膊少腿,也不能寄希望于由第三方去完善,除非是一些非关键性的、加强体验性质的东西。</p>\n<p>另外,自动驾驶系统的功能相对单一,只是替代人去开车,不像手机有着太宽泛的应用,所以开发商本身也应该具备提供完善自动驾驶系统解决方案的能力。</p>\n<p>当然,作为开发商,在开发模式上,可以先做好基础架构,然后允许第三方开发者在上面添砖加瓦,事实上,百度就是这么做的,Apollo平台已经聚集了超过4.5万的开发者,这些做法并不矛盾,因为只要交付的是完善的系统方案即可。</p>\n<p>这么看来,自动驾驶系统好像真没必要一家或者两家独大,百家争鸣可能更有利于竞争,最终让消费者获益。相信这个逻辑也影响着众多入局自动驾驶的公司,给了他们前赴后继的勇气。</p>\n<p>事情果真如此吗?</p>\n<h3>2</h3>\n<h3><b>百家争鸣真的可以实现?</b></h3>\n<p>商业社会,<b>质量、成本、效率</b>是永远绕不开的“三角关系”。</p>\n<p>谁都希望得到“双高一低”--高质量、高效率同时低成本,但实际情况,<b>这是“不可能三角”,顶多只能得到其中两个。</b>把这个框架放在自动驾驶的百家争鸣上,冲突就随之而来。</p>\n<p>不同开发商的人才、资金、技术储备、开发效率都不一样,都来做这个事,重复开发不说,对各种资源的消耗,以及有可能出现的恶性竞争,显然和低成本背道而驰;即使每个开发商都能做出一样的质量、一样的成本,效率上也会有快慢,资金充足、人才丰富的会快一点,相反就有可能会慢一点;而如果既要高质量,又要高效率,那就得比拼谁的钱多,不同开发商手头的资金、融资能力、融资成本也是千差万别。</p>\n<p><b>不管从哪个角度看,都是既要又要还要的事,所以理论上不应该存在过多的自动驾驶系统开发商。</b></p>\n<p>只是,从开发商的角度,看法可能完全相反。</p>\n<p>在智能汽车最重要的应用场景,没有厂商希望自己变成局外人,如果在这场竞赛中能够最终获胜,那都是白花花的银子,这是相当有诱惑力的事情。往更长远的方向讲,传统造车有可能因为拥有自动驾驶开发能力,在汽车业的淘汰赛中占据主动,新势力也一样,软件公司则因为自动驾驶而开辟了新的蓝海。</p>\n<p>而且,现在新兴的产业机会并不多,好不容易等来了汽车业百年未有之大变局,当然要去搏杀,一开始就作壁上观,看着大好机会白白溜走,不是件好受的事。</p>\n<p>何况,现在才刚开战,胜负未分,敢于入场厮杀的公司,都不是吃素的,论资金、论人才、论技术储备,虽有差异,但说不上谁一定赢,谁一定输。既然如此,早早就退出,将市场拱手让人,这不是做生意应该有的姿态,即使最后战死,也好过一开始就做逃兵。</p>\n<p>公说公有理,婆说婆有理,最后只有交给市场。</p>\n<p>展望未来,从参与者的角度看,因为<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/YJ\">云集</a>了太多开发商,自动驾驶市场将会非常热闹;从竞争的角度看,自动驾驶市场将上演残酷的厮杀;从路径发展上看,很可能是大佬入局--资本砸钱--泡沫催化--泡沫形成--泡沫破灭--涅槃重生。</p>\n<p><b>自动驾驶需要一场泡沫,也应该有一场泡沫。</b></p>\n<p>从资本的角度看,自动驾驶大概率会先来一场资本盛宴,然后演变成一场资本泡沫,最后泡沫破灭之后,走出了真正的强者。</p>\n<p><b>对于国家、产业、消费者和最后走出的强者,这场泡沫是“白洞”,因为它造就了百年汽车最重大的革命;而对于因此而倒下的开发商和资本方,这场泡沫将是巨大的“黑洞”,吞噬一切。</b></p>\n<h3>3</h3>\n<h3><b>作为投资者,应该干嘛?</b></h3>\n<p>言归投资,要避免掉进“黑洞”,就需要寻找产业链里最有价值的东西,有两个值得重点跟进。</p>\n<p>第一,<b>AI芯片和算法</b>,现在的竞争格局,基本成了巨头们的角力场,而且都是两者通吃,特斯拉有FSD芯片和算法,百度有昆仑芯片和Apollo,华为有麒麟芯片和鸿蒙,连小鹏也说要自研芯片,和自己的NGP形成呼应。所以,不管软件公司还是整车厂,如果没有足够实力同时拿下芯片和算法,却要声称自研自动驾驶系统,这类公司很可能掉队。</p>\n<p>当然,对于整车厂而言,并非个个都要自己做自动驾驶系统,可以选择购买其他软件厂商的系统,自己则专注于整车设计、生产、基建、营销、售后等环节,也不失为好的策略。</p>\n<p>自动驾驶的研发是烧钱的活儿,AI芯片和算法人才也都非常紧缺,巨头们都在第一时间锁住人才,论财力,巨头们也不缺。如果后面才介入,基本连汤都难喝到。</p>\n<p>所以,押注这个领域,除了巨头,貌似也没其他选择了。</p>\n<p>第二,<b>激光雷达</b>,“格隆汇研究”公众号在前期的文章《激光雷达,自动驾驶赛道的新宠儿》做过专门的分析,这里不再赘述。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c9ef019c47d40b874ba2dc071fa8f576\" tg-width=\"831\" tg-height=\"341\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">只讲一个最简单的底层逻辑,自动驾驶是人命关天的大事,对行驶过程中周遭的环境感知必须非常灵敏、精准和全面,而激光雷达这方面有着天然优势,远比摄像头、超声波雷达、毫米波雷达要牛。此前,激光雷达因为价格过万而被质疑商业化能力,现在华为已经成功将成本降到几百块的“白菜价”,量产障碍扫除,按照中国人做生意的脾性,后面会陆陆续续出现更多的激光雷达厂家。</p>\n<p>如果觉得这两个赛道太拥挤,也可以寻找一些细分领域有亮点公司,比如<b>专注做卡车自动驾驶系统的开发商</b>,这个领域有意思的地方在于,卡车的行驶场景和路线可以相对简单、固定,比如点对点的高速公路货运、港口装卸区的来回、工厂区的货物上下,这些地方容易实现人车分离,在港口区或者工厂区建空中行人区,人和车在空间上完全隔离,车上就没必要坐人,车撞人的概率就可以极大地降低。即使车撞上了,损失的是货物,不至于死人,因为人命才值钱。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5086df362e7f1465bf4f44805d8d61de\" tg-width=\"831\" tg-height=\"536\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>这些公司的领导人懂得,和巨头拼资金、拼人才,不一定拼得过,所以不如选择差异化路线,深入挖掘一下巨头暂时忽略的细分领域,开发难度、开发成本、竞争压力会相对低一些。退一万步讲,即使哪天巨头们后知后觉,要大举杀入的时候,自己还可以凭借长期的积累,保留被巨头收编的资格。</p>\n<h3>4</h3>\n<h3><b>结语</b></h3>\n<p>自动驾驶的出现,实现汽车业过去一百年都没能实现的事情,这是足够大的生意,也是足够大、足够多的投资机会。</p>\n<p><b>但是,这些赛道仍然有很多等待突破的东西,有许多需要商业化落地和检验的东西,在这些东西没有明朗化之前,投资的坑是非常多的,借信息不对称,借投资者不明就里的时间窗口,趁机割韭菜的人,多的是。</b></p>\n<p>对于投资者而言,如果有能力在早期就看透底层逻辑,发掘到投资机会,可以大胆押注;等到形势明朗化,出现向上拐点,或者出现爆发迹象之时,再押注,也不会晚;在狂热期,泡沫吹大之时,有能力跟随泡沫起舞的,也不失为押注时机,但如果没有能力急流勇退,还是多一份冷静好。</p>\n<p><b>现在,也正需要这样一份冷静。</b></p>","source":"gelonghui_highlight","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>自动驾驶需要一场泡沫</title>\n<style 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margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n自动驾驶需要一场泡沫\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-04-21 21:11 北京时间 <a href=http://www.gelonghui.com/p/461708><strong>格隆汇</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>一个行业有“钱景”,必然引发一阵“骚乱”。\n十年前是智能手机,现在是智能汽车。作为智能汽车最引人注目的应用,自动驾驶无疑最能撩拨产业界的神经。现在,除了特斯拉、Google、百度这些先行者,连华为也进来了,并放出要吊打特斯拉的豪言。\n吊不吊打特斯拉有待验证,但是华为带来的自动驾驶首先在股市牵起一阵热潮。多个概念股相继涨停。\n\n从产业前景看,自动驾驶是星辰大海,但是从资本投入来看,它也可能成为吞噬...</p>\n\n<a href=\"http://www.gelonghui.com/p/461708\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e90c8e408a27094af0ec585715f7e80c","relate_stocks":{"BIDU":"百度","TSLA":"特斯拉","GOOG":"谷歌"},"source_url":"http://www.gelonghui.com/p/461708","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/6b8fa6424aebe95f6781d04ef17a1852","article_id":"2129871712","content_text":"一个行业有“钱景”,必然引发一阵“骚乱”。\n十年前是智能手机,现在是智能汽车。作为智能汽车最引人注目的应用,自动驾驶无疑最能撩拨产业界的神经。现在,除了特斯拉、Google、百度这些先行者,连华为也进来了,并放出要吊打特斯拉的豪言。\n吊不吊打特斯拉有待验证,但是华为带来的自动驾驶首先在股市牵起一阵热潮。多个概念股相继涨停。\n\n从产业前景看,自动驾驶是星辰大海,但是从资本投入来看,它也可能成为吞噬一切的黑洞。\n1\n双寡头还是百家争鸣?\n计算机革命开启了电子业硬件、软件各自独立又相互依存的格局,智能手机承载了这个衣钵,到现在的智能汽车,很自然会照葫芦画瓢。\n于是,在自动驾驶系统上,出现类似苹果封闭IOS系统和Google开放安卓系统的局面,代表有特斯拉FSD和Google Waymo。\n\n但是,和手机操作系统稳定的双寡头格局不同的是,除了特斯拉和Google,还有很多其他的参与者,软硬件通吃的厂商就有通用、小鹏,百度、苹果也说要造车,软件厂商就更多了,名气大如华为,小一点的有Pony.ai、Nuro.ai、图森未来等,图森未来更成为首家登陆美股的自动驾驶软件厂商。\n所以,有人提出自动驾驶不应该只有“IOS”和“安卓”,而是百家争鸣的局面。\n这种说法也不是没有道理,从理论上讲,智能手机操作系统只需要搭建基础的框架,其他的应用有待开发者去完善,之后再形成完善的生态系统。\n开发者不需要是操作系统公司,可以是第三方公司,觉得哪些功能有需求,就自己在源代码的基础上开发APP,这就类似于政府把地块整理好,把自己应该承担的基础设施建设好,然后供地产商在上面建住宅也好,建商场也行,建厂房、建写字楼都行,最终形成完善的城市设施。\n而且,手机的应用场景非常多,金融的、购物的、社交的、娱乐的,全都给操作系统公司做,等于城市的所有设施都让政府建,这将相当费劲和相当低效,倒不如把这些任务交给第三方开发者,同时让他们分享成果,一旦和众多的开发者、用户绑定在一起,就很容易形成垄断优势,新进入的操作系统就很难有生存空间。\n这是妥妥的三赢。\n但是,自动驾驶系统不一样,作为用户,你总不能拿到一个“裸系统”,然后再自己去安装刹车APP、方向盘APP、自动泊车APP吧,这得是多差的用户体验?要是忘记安装哪个APP,是不是意味着自动驾驶不了了?更要命的是,忘了装刹车APP就开自动上路,万一该刹车时不刹,那不等于拿人命开玩笑?\n\n换句话说,开发商给到用户的,不应该是一个仅仅整理好的“地块”,也不应该只建了部分基础设施的“地块”,而应该是一座具备完善设施的“城市”。所以,自动驾驶系统一出来就应该是完善的,不能缺胳膊少腿,也不能寄希望于由第三方去完善,除非是一些非关键性的、加强体验性质的东西。\n另外,自动驾驶系统的功能相对单一,只是替代人去开车,不像手机有着太宽泛的应用,所以开发商本身也应该具备提供完善自动驾驶系统解决方案的能力。\n当然,作为开发商,在开发模式上,可以先做好基础架构,然后允许第三方开发者在上面添砖加瓦,事实上,百度就是这么做的,Apollo平台已经聚集了超过4.5万的开发者,这些做法并不矛盾,因为只要交付的是完善的系统方案即可。\n这么看来,自动驾驶系统好像真没必要一家或者两家独大,百家争鸣可能更有利于竞争,最终让消费者获益。相信这个逻辑也影响着众多入局自动驾驶的公司,给了他们前赴后继的勇气。\n事情果真如此吗?\n2\n百家争鸣真的可以实现?\n商业社会,质量、成本、效率是永远绕不开的“三角关系”。\n谁都希望得到“双高一低”--高质量、高效率同时低成本,但实际情况,这是“不可能三角”,顶多只能得到其中两个。把这个框架放在自动驾驶的百家争鸣上,冲突就随之而来。\n不同开发商的人才、资金、技术储备、开发效率都不一样,都来做这个事,重复开发不说,对各种资源的消耗,以及有可能出现的恶性竞争,显然和低成本背道而驰;即使每个开发商都能做出一样的质量、一样的成本,效率上也会有快慢,资金充足、人才丰富的会快一点,相反就有可能会慢一点;而如果既要高质量,又要高效率,那就得比拼谁的钱多,不同开发商手头的资金、融资能力、融资成本也是千差万别。\n不管从哪个角度看,都是既要又要还要的事,所以理论上不应该存在过多的自动驾驶系统开发商。\n只是,从开发商的角度,看法可能完全相反。\n在智能汽车最重要的应用场景,没有厂商希望自己变成局外人,如果在这场竞赛中能够最终获胜,那都是白花花的银子,这是相当有诱惑力的事情。往更长远的方向讲,传统造车有可能因为拥有自动驾驶开发能力,在汽车业的淘汰赛中占据主动,新势力也一样,软件公司则因为自动驾驶而开辟了新的蓝海。\n而且,现在新兴的产业机会并不多,好不容易等来了汽车业百年未有之大变局,当然要去搏杀,一开始就作壁上观,看着大好机会白白溜走,不是件好受的事。\n何况,现在才刚开战,胜负未分,敢于入场厮杀的公司,都不是吃素的,论资金、论人才、论技术储备,虽有差异,但说不上谁一定赢,谁一定输。既然如此,早早就退出,将市场拱手让人,这不是做生意应该有的姿态,即使最后战死,也好过一开始就做逃兵。\n公说公有理,婆说婆有理,最后只有交给市场。\n展望未来,从参与者的角度看,因为云集了太多开发商,自动驾驶市场将会非常热闹;从竞争的角度看,自动驾驶市场将上演残酷的厮杀;从路径发展上看,很可能是大佬入局--资本砸钱--泡沫催化--泡沫形成--泡沫破灭--涅槃重生。\n自动驾驶需要一场泡沫,也应该有一场泡沫。\n从资本的角度看,自动驾驶大概率会先来一场资本盛宴,然后演变成一场资本泡沫,最后泡沫破灭之后,走出了真正的强者。\n对于国家、产业、消费者和最后走出的强者,这场泡沫是“白洞”,因为它造就了百年汽车最重大的革命;而对于因此而倒下的开发商和资本方,这场泡沫将是巨大的“黑洞”,吞噬一切。\n3\n作为投资者,应该干嘛?\n言归投资,要避免掉进“黑洞”,就需要寻找产业链里最有价值的东西,有两个值得重点跟进。\n第一,AI芯片和算法,现在的竞争格局,基本成了巨头们的角力场,而且都是两者通吃,特斯拉有FSD芯片和算法,百度有昆仑芯片和Apollo,华为有麒麟芯片和鸿蒙,连小鹏也说要自研芯片,和自己的NGP形成呼应。所以,不管软件公司还是整车厂,如果没有足够实力同时拿下芯片和算法,却要声称自研自动驾驶系统,这类公司很可能掉队。\n当然,对于整车厂而言,并非个个都要自己做自动驾驶系统,可以选择购买其他软件厂商的系统,自己则专注于整车设计、生产、基建、营销、售后等环节,也不失为好的策略。\n自动驾驶的研发是烧钱的活儿,AI芯片和算法人才也都非常紧缺,巨头们都在第一时间锁住人才,论财力,巨头们也不缺。如果后面才介入,基本连汤都难喝到。\n所以,押注这个领域,除了巨头,貌似也没其他选择了。\n第二,激光雷达,“格隆汇研究”公众号在前期的文章《激光雷达,自动驾驶赛道的新宠儿》做过专门的分析,这里不再赘述。\n只讲一个最简单的底层逻辑,自动驾驶是人命关天的大事,对行驶过程中周遭的环境感知必须非常灵敏、精准和全面,而激光雷达这方面有着天然优势,远比摄像头、超声波雷达、毫米波雷达要牛。此前,激光雷达因为价格过万而被质疑商业化能力,现在华为已经成功将成本降到几百块的“白菜价”,量产障碍扫除,按照中国人做生意的脾性,后面会陆陆续续出现更多的激光雷达厂家。\n如果觉得这两个赛道太拥挤,也可以寻找一些细分领域有亮点公司,比如专注做卡车自动驾驶系统的开发商,这个领域有意思的地方在于,卡车的行驶场景和路线可以相对简单、固定,比如点对点的高速公路货运、港口装卸区的来回、工厂区的货物上下,这些地方容易实现人车分离,在港口区或者工厂区建空中行人区,人和车在空间上完全隔离,车上就没必要坐人,车撞人的概率就可以极大地降低。即使车撞上了,损失的是货物,不至于死人,因为人命才值钱。\n\n这些公司的领导人懂得,和巨头拼资金、拼人才,不一定拼得过,所以不如选择差异化路线,深入挖掘一下巨头暂时忽略的细分领域,开发难度、开发成本、竞争压力会相对低一些。退一万步讲,即使哪天巨头们后知后觉,要大举杀入的时候,自己还可以凭借长期的积累,保留被巨头收编的资格。\n4\n结语\n自动驾驶的出现,实现汽车业过去一百年都没能实现的事情,这是足够大的生意,也是足够大、足够多的投资机会。\n但是,这些赛道仍然有很多等待突破的东西,有许多需要商业化落地和检验的东西,在这些东西没有明朗化之前,投资的坑是非常多的,借信息不对称,借投资者不明就里的时间窗口,趁机割韭菜的人,多的是。\n对于投资者而言,如果有能力在早期就看透底层逻辑,发掘到投资机会,可以大胆押注;等到形势明朗化,出现向上拐点,或者出现爆发迹象之时,再押注,也不会晚;在狂热期,泡沫吹大之时,有能力跟随泡沫起舞的,也不失为押注时机,但如果没有能力急流勇退,还是多一份冷静好。\n现在,也正需要这样一份冷静。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1539,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":348417921,"gmtCreate":1617952031963,"gmtModify":1617952031963,"author":{"id":"3573433876521022","authorId":"3573433876521022","name":"巴山新雨","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b376ba809bbb389d56497f41c4cae26d","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3573433876521022","authorIdStr":"3573433876521022"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a 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