巴山新雨的个人主页 - 老虎社区

巴山新雨

巴山新雨

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IP属地：四川

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3主题

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04-11

这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看

美国CPI数据公布后，国债收益率飙升，十年期美债收益率上破4.5%

2021-12-15

$中芯国际(00981)$都自裁成这熊样了，还用老美制裁吗，这老美，也太没格局了。

2021-12-15

$中芯国际(00981)$始劲跌，等你退市的那一天。

2021-12-15

$中芯国际(00981)$灵异事件[流泪]

2021-12-15

$中芯国际(00981)$中芯绝对见鬼了。

2021-12-08

$中芯国际(00981)$愧对眼下行情，还要不要脸？

2021-07-27

$奈雪的茶(02150)$什么鬼？

2021-07-20

$中芯国际(00981)$。最好宣布退市，至少还能制造一个重磅新闻。

2021-07-20

$奈雪的茶(02150)$这是什么鬼茶？绝对TMD有毒！

2021-07-06

龙头变蛇尾，愧对全国人民的热情和期待呀！

抱歉，原内容已删除

2021-05-18

$中芯国际(00981)$扶不起来的阿斗啊

2021-05-11

这宋姓人太令人作呕了.鄙视你。

抱歉，原内容已删除

2021-04-21

讲的很精辟，也很全面。

自动驾驶需要一场泡沫

2021-04-09

$广联工程控股(01413)$一支每天看着想呕的股票。

去老虎APP查看更多动态

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超出预期\n美国CPI数据公布后，国债收益率飙升，十年期美债收益率上破4.5%。\n\n股市回暖，抄底炒股先开户！智能定投、条件单、个股雷达……送给你>>\n\n\n\n\n海量资讯、精准解读，尽在新浪财经APP\n\n责任编辑：欧阳名军</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://finance.sina.com.cn/7x24/2024-04-10/doc-inarkfqn1809866.shtml\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"UTRE":"US Treasury 3 Year Note ETF","UTWY":"US Treasury 20 Year Bond ETF","UFIV":"US Treasury 5 Year Note ETF","USVN":"US TREASURY 7 YEAR NOTE ETF","UTHY":"US Treasury 30 Year Bond ETF"},"source_url":"https://finance.sina.com.cn/7x24/2024-04-10/doc-inarkfqn1809866.shtml","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2426496437","content_text":"专题：美国3月CPI同比3.5% 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href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00981\">$中芯国际(00981)$</a>扶不起来的阿斗啊","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00981\">$中芯国际(00981)$</a>扶不起来的阿斗啊","text":"$中芯国际(00981)$扶不起来的阿斗啊","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/194007337","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1144,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":199109641,"gmtCreate":1620689143883,"gmtModify":1620689143883,"author":{"id":"3573433876521022","authorId":"3573433876521022","name":"巴山新雨","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b376ba809bbb389d56497f41c4cae26d","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3573433876521022","authorIdStr":"3573433876521022"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"这宋姓人太令人作呕了.鄙视你。","listText":"这宋姓人太令人作呕了.鄙视你。","text":"这宋姓人太令人作呕了.鄙视你。","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/199109641","repostId":"1108301559","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":737,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":378862738,"gmtCreate":1619016306124,"gmtModify":1619016306124,"author":{"id":"3573433876521022","authorId":"3573433876521022","name":"巴山新雨","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b376ba809bbb389d56497f41c4cae26d","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3573433876521022","authorIdStr":"3573433876521022"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"讲的很精辟，也很全面。","listText":"讲的很精辟，也很全面。","text":"讲的很精辟，也很全面。","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/378862738","repostId":"2129871712","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2129871712","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1619010672,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2129871712?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-04-21 21:11","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"自动驾驶需要一场泡沫","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2129871712","media":"格隆汇","summary":"多一份冷静好。","content":"<p>一个行业有“钱景”，必然引发一阵“骚乱”。</p>\n<p>十年前是<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/5RE.SI\">智能</a>手机，现在是智能汽车。作为智能汽车最引人注目的应用，自动驾驶无疑最能撩拨产业界的神经。现在，除了<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">特斯拉</a>、Google、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BIDU\">百度</a>这些先行者，连华为也进来了，并放出要吊打<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">特斯拉</a>的豪言。</p>\n<p>吊不吊打特斯拉有待验证，但是华为带来的自动驾驶首先在股市牵起一阵热潮。多个概念股相继涨停。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e90c8e408a27094af0ec585715f7e80c\" tg-width=\"751\" tg-height=\"391\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p><b>从产业前景看，自动驾驶是星辰大海，但是从资本投入来看，它也可能成为吞噬一切的黑洞。</b></p>\n<h3>1</h3>\n<h3><b>双寡头还是百家争鸣？</b></h3>\n<p>计算机革命开启了电子业硬件、软件各自独立又相互依存的格局，智能手机承载了这个衣钵，到现在的智能汽车，很自然会照葫芦画瓢。</p>\n<p>于是，在自动驾驶系统上，出现类似<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">苹果</a>封闭IOS系统和Google开放安卓系统的局面，代表有特斯拉FSD和Google Waymo。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4814e0363c668a26061448ae4aa6a3fd\" tg-width=\"830\" tg-height=\"225\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>但是，和手机操作系统稳定的双寡头格局不同的是，除了特斯拉和Google，还有很多其他的参与者，软硬件通吃的厂商就有通用、小鹏，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BIDU\">百度</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">苹果</a>也说要造车，软件厂商就更多了，名气大如华为，小一点的有Pony.ai、Nuro.ai、图森未来等，图森未来更成为首家登陆美股的自动驾驶软件厂商。</p>\n<p><b>所以，有人提出自动驾驶不应该只有“IOS”和“安卓”，而是百家争鸣的局面。</b></p>\n<p>这种说法也不是没有道理，从理论上讲，智能手机操作系统只需要搭建基础的框架，其他的应用有待开发者去完善，之后再形成完善的生态系统。</p>\n<p>开发者不需要是操作系统公司，可以是第三方公司，觉得哪些功能有需求，就自己在源代码的基础上开发APP，这就类似于政府把地块整理好，把自己应该承担的基础设施建设好，然后供地产商在上面建住宅也好，建商场也行，建厂房、建写字楼都行，最终形成完善的城市设施。</p>\n<p>而且，手机的应用场景非常多，金融的、购物的、社交的、娱乐的，全都给操作系统公司做，等于城市的所有设施都让政府建，这将相当费劲和相当低效，倒不如把这些任务交给第三方开发者，同时让他们分享成果，一旦和众多的开发者、用户绑定在一起，就很容易形成垄断优势，新进入的操作系统就很难有生存空间。</p>\n<p><b>这是妥妥的三赢。</b></p>\n<p>但是，自动驾驶系统不一样，作为用户，你总不能拿到一个“裸系统”，然后再自己去安装刹车APP、方向盘APP、自动泊车APP吧，这得是多差的用户体验？要是忘记安装哪个APP，是不是意味着自动驾驶不了了？更要命的是，忘了装刹车APP就开自动上路，万一该刹车时不刹，那不等于拿人命开玩笑？</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/eb1e4e0bea9f608af01271f29b74384f\" tg-width=\"830\" tg-height=\"376\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>换句话说，<b>开发商给到用户的，不应该是一个仅仅整理好的“地块”，也不应该只建了部分基础设施的“地块”，而应该是一座具备完善设施的“城市”。</b>所以，自动驾驶系统一出来就应该是完善的，不能缺胳膊少腿，也不能寄希望于由第三方去完善，除非是一些非关键性的、加强体验性质的东西。</p>\n<p>另外，自动驾驶系统的功能相对单一，只是替代人去开车，不像手机有着太宽泛的应用，所以开发商本身也应该具备提供完善自动驾驶系统解决方案的能力。</p>\n<p>当然，作为开发商，在开发模式上，可以先做好基础架构，然后允许第三方开发者在上面添砖加瓦，事实上，百度就是这么做的，Apollo平台已经聚集了超过4.5万的开发者，这些做法并不矛盾，因为只要交付的是完善的系统方案即可。</p>\n<p>这么看来，自动驾驶系统好像真没必要一家或者两家独大，百家争鸣可能更有利于竞争，最终让消费者获益。相信这个逻辑也影响着众多入局自动驾驶的公司，给了他们前赴后继的勇气。</p>\n<p>事情果真如此吗？</p>\n<h3>2</h3>\n<h3><b>百家争鸣真的可以实现？</b></h3>\n<p>商业社会，<b>质量、成本、效率</b>是永远绕不开的“三角关系”。</p>\n<p>谁都希望得到“双高一低”--高质量、高效率同时低成本，但实际情况，<b>这是“不可能三角”，顶多只能得到其中两个。</b>把这个框架放在自动驾驶的百家争鸣上，冲突就随之而来。</p>\n<p>不同开发商的人才、资金、技术储备、开发效率都不一样，都来做这个事，重复开发不说，对各种资源的消耗，以及有可能出现的恶性竞争，显然和低成本背道而驰；即使每个开发商都能做出一样的质量、一样的成本，效率上也会有快慢，资金充足、人才丰富的会快一点，相反就有可能会慢一点；而如果既要高质量，又要高效率，那就得比拼谁的钱多，不同开发商手头的资金、融资能力、融资成本也是千差万别。</p>\n<p><b>不管从哪个角度看，都是既要又要还要的事，所以理论上不应该存在过多的自动驾驶系统开发商。</b></p>\n<p>只是，从开发商的角度，看法可能完全相反。</p>\n<p>在智能汽车最重要的应用场景，没有厂商希望自己变成局外人，如果在这场竞赛中能够最终获胜，那都是白花花的银子，这是相当有诱惑力的事情。往更长远的方向讲，传统造车有可能因为拥有自动驾驶开发能力，在汽车业的淘汰赛中占据主动，新势力也一样，软件公司则因为自动驾驶而开辟了新的蓝海。</p>\n<p>而且，现在新兴的产业机会并不多，好不容易等来了汽车业百年未有之大变局，当然要去搏杀，一开始就作壁上观，看着大好机会白白溜走，不是件好受的事。</p>\n<p>何况，现在才刚开战，胜负未分，敢于入场厮杀的公司，都不是吃素的，论资金、论人才、论技术储备，虽有差异，但说不上谁一定赢，谁一定输。既然如此，早早就退出，将市场拱手让人，这不是做生意应该有的姿态，即使最后战死，也好过一开始就做逃兵。</p>\n<p>公说公有理，婆说婆有理，最后只有交给市场。</p>\n<p>展望未来，从参与者的角度看，因为<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/YJ\">云集</a>了太多开发商，自动驾驶市场将会非常热闹；从竞争的角度看，自动驾驶市场将上演残酷的厮杀；从路径发展上看，很可能是大佬入局--资本砸钱--泡沫催化--泡沫形成--泡沫破灭--涅槃重生。</p>\n<p><b>自动驾驶需要一场泡沫，也应该有一场泡沫。</b></p>\n<p>从资本的角度看，自动驾驶大概率会先来一场资本盛宴，然后演变成一场资本泡沫，最后泡沫破灭之后，走出了真正的强者。</p>\n<p><b>对于国家、产业、消费者和最后走出的强者，这场泡沫是“白洞”，因为它造就了百年汽车最重大的革命；而对于因此而倒下的开发商和资本方，这场泡沫将是巨大的“黑洞”，吞噬一切。</b></p>\n<h3>3</h3>\n<h3><b>作为投资者，应该干嘛？</b></h3>\n<p>言归投资，要避免掉进“黑洞”，就需要寻找产业链里最有价值的东西，有两个值得重点跟进。</p>\n<p>第一，<b>AI芯片和算法</b>，现在的竞争格局，基本成了巨头们的角力场，而且都是两者通吃，特斯拉有FSD芯片和算法，百度有昆仑芯片和Apollo，华为有麒麟芯片和鸿蒙，连小鹏也说要自研芯片，和自己的NGP形成呼应。所以，不管软件公司还是整车厂，如果没有足够实力同时拿下芯片和算法，却要声称自研自动驾驶系统，这类公司很可能掉队。</p>\n<p>当然，对于整车厂而言，并非个个都要自己做自动驾驶系统，可以选择购买其他软件厂商的系统，自己则专注于整车设计、生产、基建、营销、售后等环节，也不失为好的策略。</p>\n<p>自动驾驶的研发是烧钱的活儿，AI芯片和算法人才也都非常紧缺，巨头们都在第一时间锁住人才，论财力，巨头们也不缺。如果后面才介入，基本连汤都难喝到。</p>\n<p>所以，押注这个领域，除了巨头，貌似也没其他选择了。</p>\n<p>第二，<b>激光雷达</b>，“格隆汇研究”公众号在前期的文章《激光雷达，自动驾驶赛道的新宠儿》做过专门的分析，这里不再赘述。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c9ef019c47d40b874ba2dc071fa8f576\" tg-width=\"831\" tg-height=\"341\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">只讲一个最简单的底层逻辑，自动驾驶是人命关天的大事，对行驶过程中周遭的环境感知必须非常灵敏、精准和全面，而激光雷达这方面有着天然优势，远比摄像头、超声波雷达、毫米波雷达要牛。此前，激光雷达因为价格过万而被质疑商业化能力，现在华为已经成功将成本降到几百块的“白菜价”，量产障碍扫除，按照中国人做生意的脾性，后面会陆陆续续出现更多的激光雷达厂家。</p>\n<p>如果觉得这两个赛道太拥挤，也可以寻找一些细分领域有亮点公司，比如<b>专注做卡车自动驾驶系统的开发商</b>，这个领域有意思的地方在于，卡车的行驶场景和路线可以相对简单、固定，比如点对点的高速公路货运、港口装卸区的来回、工厂区的货物上下，这些地方容易实现人车分离，在港口区或者工厂区建空中行人区，人和车在空间上完全隔离，车上就没必要坐人，车撞人的概率就可以极大地降低。即使车撞上了，损失的是货物，不至于死人，因为人命才值钱。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5086df362e7f1465bf4f44805d8d61de\" tg-width=\"831\" tg-height=\"536\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>这些公司的领导人懂得，和巨头拼资金、拼人才，不一定拼得过，所以不如选择差异化路线，深入挖掘一下巨头暂时忽略的细分领域，开发难度、开发成本、竞争压力会相对低一些。退一万步讲，即使哪天巨头们后知后觉，要大举杀入的时候，自己还可以凭借长期的积累，保留被巨头收编的资格。</p>\n<h3>4</h3>\n<h3><b>结语</b></h3>\n<p>自动驾驶的出现，实现汽车业过去一百年都没能实现的事情，这是足够大的生意，也是足够大、足够多的投资机会。</p>\n<p><b>但是，这些赛道仍然有很多等待突破的东西，有许多需要商业化落地和检验的东西，在这些东西没有明朗化之前，投资的坑是非常多的，借信息不对称，借投资者不明就里的时间窗口，趁机割韭菜的人，多的是。</b></p>\n<p>对于投资者而言，如果有能力在早期就看透底层逻辑，发掘到投资机会，可以大胆押注；等到形势明朗化，出现向上拐点，或者出现爆发迹象之时，再押注，也不会晚；在狂热期，泡沫吹大之时，有能力跟随泡沫起舞的，也不失为押注时机，但如果没有能力急流勇退，还是多一份冷静好。</p>\n<p><b>现在，也正需要这样一份冷静。</b></p>","source":"gelonghui_highlight","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>自动驾驶需要一场泡沫</title>\n<style 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margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n自动驾驶需要一场泡沫\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-04-21 21:11 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=http://www.gelonghui.com/p/461708><strong>格隆汇</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>一个行业有“钱景”，必然引发一阵“骚乱”。\n十年前是智能手机，现在是智能汽车。作为智能汽车最引人注目的应用，自动驾驶无疑最能撩拨产业界的神经。现在，除了特斯拉、Google、百度这些先行者，连华为也进来了，并放出要吊打特斯拉的豪言。\n吊不吊打特斯拉有待验证，但是华为带来的自动驾驶首先在股市牵起一阵热潮。多个概念股相继涨停。\n\n从产业前景看，自动驾驶是星辰大海，但是从资本投入来看，它也可能成为吞噬...</p>\n\n<a href=\"http://www.gelonghui.com/p/461708\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e90c8e408a27094af0ec585715f7e80c","relate_stocks":{"TSLA":"特斯拉","GOOG":"谷歌","BIDU":"百度"},"source_url":"http://www.gelonghui.com/p/461708","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/6b8fa6424aebe95f6781d04ef17a1852","article_id":"2129871712","content_text":"一个行业有“钱景”，必然引发一阵“骚乱”。\n十年前是智能手机，现在是智能汽车。作为智能汽车最引人注目的应用，自动驾驶无疑最能撩拨产业界的神经。现在，除了特斯拉、Google、百度这些先行者，连华为也进来了，并放出要吊打特斯拉的豪言。\n吊不吊打特斯拉有待验证，但是华为带来的自动驾驶首先在股市牵起一阵热潮。多个概念股相继涨停。\n\n从产业前景看，自动驾驶是星辰大海，但是从资本投入来看，它也可能成为吞噬一切的黑洞。\n1\n双寡头还是百家争鸣？\n计算机革命开启了电子业硬件、软件各自独立又相互依存的格局，智能手机承载了这个衣钵，到现在的智能汽车，很自然会照葫芦画瓢。\n于是，在自动驾驶系统上，出现类似苹果封闭IOS系统和Google开放安卓系统的局面，代表有特斯拉FSD和Google Waymo。\n\n但是，和手机操作系统稳定的双寡头格局不同的是，除了特斯拉和Google，还有很多其他的参与者，软硬件通吃的厂商就有通用、小鹏，百度、苹果也说要造车，软件厂商就更多了，名气大如华为，小一点的有Pony.ai、Nuro.ai、图森未来等，图森未来更成为首家登陆美股的自动驾驶软件厂商。\n所以，有人提出自动驾驶不应该只有“IOS”和“安卓”，而是百家争鸣的局面。\n这种说法也不是没有道理，从理论上讲，智能手机操作系统只需要搭建基础的框架，其他的应用有待开发者去完善，之后再形成完善的生态系统。\n开发者不需要是操作系统公司，可以是第三方公司，觉得哪些功能有需求，就自己在源代码的基础上开发APP，这就类似于政府把地块整理好，把自己应该承担的基础设施建设好，然后供地产商在上面建住宅也好，建商场也行，建厂房、建写字楼都行，最终形成完善的城市设施。\n而且，手机的应用场景非常多，金融的、购物的、社交的、娱乐的，全都给操作系统公司做，等于城市的所有设施都让政府建，这将相当费劲和相当低效，倒不如把这些任务交给第三方开发者，同时让他们分享成果，一旦和众多的开发者、用户绑定在一起，就很容易形成垄断优势，新进入的操作系统就很难有生存空间。\n这是妥妥的三赢。\n但是，自动驾驶系统不一样，作为用户，你总不能拿到一个“裸系统”，然后再自己去安装刹车APP、方向盘APP、自动泊车APP吧，这得是多差的用户体验？要是忘记安装哪个APP，是不是意味着自动驾驶不了了？更要命的是，忘了装刹车APP就开自动上路，万一该刹车时不刹，那不等于拿人命开玩笑？\n\n换句话说，开发商给到用户的，不应该是一个仅仅整理好的“地块”，也不应该只建了部分基础设施的“地块”，而应该是一座具备完善设施的“城市”。所以，自动驾驶系统一出来就应该是完善的，不能缺胳膊少腿，也不能寄希望于由第三方去完善，除非是一些非关键性的、加强体验性质的东西。\n另外，自动驾驶系统的功能相对单一，只是替代人去开车，不像手机有着太宽泛的应用，所以开发商本身也应该具备提供完善自动驾驶系统解决方案的能力。\n当然，作为开发商，在开发模式上，可以先做好基础架构，然后允许第三方开发者在上面添砖加瓦，事实上，百度就是这么做的，Apollo平台已经聚集了超过4.5万的开发者，这些做法并不矛盾，因为只要交付的是完善的系统方案即可。\n这么看来，自动驾驶系统好像真没必要一家或者两家独大，百家争鸣可能更有利于竞争，最终让消费者获益。相信这个逻辑也影响着众多入局自动驾驶的公司，给了他们前赴后继的勇气。\n事情果真如此吗？\n2\n百家争鸣真的可以实现？\n商业社会，质量、成本、效率是永远绕不开的“三角关系”。\n谁都希望得到“双高一低”--高质量、高效率同时低成本，但实际情况，这是“不可能三角”，顶多只能得到其中两个。把这个框架放在自动驾驶的百家争鸣上，冲突就随之而来。\n不同开发商的人才、资金、技术储备、开发效率都不一样，都来做这个事，重复开发不说，对各种资源的消耗，以及有可能出现的恶性竞争，显然和低成本背道而驰；即使每个开发商都能做出一样的质量、一样的成本，效率上也会有快慢，资金充足、人才丰富的会快一点，相反就有可能会慢一点；而如果既要高质量，又要高效率，那就得比拼谁的钱多，不同开发商手头的资金、融资能力、融资成本也是千差万别。\n不管从哪个角度看，都是既要又要还要的事，所以理论上不应该存在过多的自动驾驶系统开发商。\n只是，从开发商的角度，看法可能完全相反。\n在智能汽车最重要的应用场景，没有厂商希望自己变成局外人，如果在这场竞赛中能够最终获胜，那都是白花花的银子，这是相当有诱惑力的事情。往更长远的方向讲，传统造车有可能因为拥有自动驾驶开发能力，在汽车业的淘汰赛中占据主动，新势力也一样，软件公司则因为自动驾驶而开辟了新的蓝海。\n而且，现在新兴的产业机会并不多，好不容易等来了汽车业百年未有之大变局，当然要去搏杀，一开始就作壁上观，看着大好机会白白溜走，不是件好受的事。\n何况，现在才刚开战，胜负未分，敢于入场厮杀的公司，都不是吃素的，论资金、论人才、论技术储备，虽有差异，但说不上谁一定赢，谁一定输。既然如此，早早就退出，将市场拱手让人，这不是做生意应该有的姿态，即使最后战死，也好过一开始就做逃兵。\n公说公有理，婆说婆有理，最后只有交给市场。\n展望未来，从参与者的角度看，因为云集了太多开发商，自动驾驶市场将会非常热闹；从竞争的角度看，自动驾驶市场将上演残酷的厮杀；从路径发展上看，很可能是大佬入局--资本砸钱--泡沫催化--泡沫形成--泡沫破灭--涅槃重生。\n自动驾驶需要一场泡沫，也应该有一场泡沫。\n从资本的角度看，自动驾驶大概率会先来一场资本盛宴，然后演变成一场资本泡沫，最后泡沫破灭之后，走出了真正的强者。\n对于国家、产业、消费者和最后走出的强者，这场泡沫是“白洞”，因为它造就了百年汽车最重大的革命；而对于因此而倒下的开发商和资本方，这场泡沫将是巨大的“黑洞”，吞噬一切。\n3\n作为投资者，应该干嘛？\n言归投资，要避免掉进“黑洞”，就需要寻找产业链里最有价值的东西，有两个值得重点跟进。\n第一，AI芯片和算法，现在的竞争格局，基本成了巨头们的角力场，而且都是两者通吃，特斯拉有FSD芯片和算法，百度有昆仑芯片和Apollo，华为有麒麟芯片和鸿蒙，连小鹏也说要自研芯片，和自己的NGP形成呼应。所以，不管软件公司还是整车厂，如果没有足够实力同时拿下芯片和算法，却要声称自研自动驾驶系统，这类公司很可能掉队。\n当然，对于整车厂而言，并非个个都要自己做自动驾驶系统，可以选择购买其他软件厂商的系统，自己则专注于整车设计、生产、基建、营销、售后等环节，也不失为好的策略。\n自动驾驶的研发是烧钱的活儿，AI芯片和算法人才也都非常紧缺，巨头们都在第一时间锁住人才，论财力，巨头们也不缺。如果后面才介入，基本连汤都难喝到。\n所以，押注这个领域，除了巨头，貌似也没其他选择了。\n第二，激光雷达，“格隆汇研究”公众号在前期的文章《激光雷达，自动驾驶赛道的新宠儿》做过专门的分析，这里不再赘述。\n只讲一个最简单的底层逻辑，自动驾驶是人命关天的大事，对行驶过程中周遭的环境感知必须非常灵敏、精准和全面，而激光雷达这方面有着天然优势，远比摄像头、超声波雷达、毫米波雷达要牛。此前，激光雷达因为价格过万而被质疑商业化能力，现在华为已经成功将成本降到几百块的“白菜价”，量产障碍扫除，按照中国人做生意的脾性，后面会陆陆续续出现更多的激光雷达厂家。\n如果觉得这两个赛道太拥挤，也可以寻找一些细分领域有亮点公司，比如专注做卡车自动驾驶系统的开发商，这个领域有意思的地方在于，卡车的行驶场景和路线可以相对简单、固定，比如点对点的高速公路货运、港口装卸区的来回、工厂区的货物上下，这些地方容易实现人车分离，在港口区或者工厂区建空中行人区，人和车在空间上完全隔离，车上就没必要坐人，车撞人的概率就可以极大地降低。即使车撞上了，损失的是货物，不至于死人，因为人命才值钱。\n\n这些公司的领导人懂得，和巨头拼资金、拼人才，不一定拼得过，所以不如选择差异化路线，深入挖掘一下巨头暂时忽略的细分领域，开发难度、开发成本、竞争压力会相对低一些。退一万步讲，即使哪天巨头们后知后觉，要大举杀入的时候，自己还可以凭借长期的积累，保留被巨头收编的资格。\n4\n结语\n自动驾驶的出现，实现汽车业过去一百年都没能实现的事情，这是足够大的生意，也是足够大、足够多的投资机会。\n但是，这些赛道仍然有很多等待突破的东西，有许多需要商业化落地和检验的东西，在这些东西没有明朗化之前，投资的坑是非常多的，借信息不对称，借投资者不明就里的时间窗口，趁机割韭菜的人，多的是。\n对于投资者而言，如果有能力在早期就看透底层逻辑，发掘到投资机会，可以大胆押注；等到形势明朗化，出现向上拐点，或者出现爆发迹象之时，再押注，也不会晚；在狂热期，泡沫吹大之时，有能力跟随泡沫起舞的，也不失为押注时机，但如果没有能力急流勇退，还是多一份冷静好。\n现在，也正需要这样一份冷静。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1731,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":348417921,"gmtCreate":1617952031963,"gmtModify":1617952031963,"author":{"id":"3573433876521022","authorId":"3573433876521022","name":"巴山新雨","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b376ba809bbb389d56497f41c4cae26d","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3573433876521022","authorIdStr":"3573433876521022"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a 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17:57","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"弃千万激励，元老出走，中芯国际还能挑起中国芯逆袭重任吗？","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2149547603","media":"华商韬略","summary":"7月5日，中芯国际发布公告：公司核心技术人员吴金刚博士因个人原因辞职，且不再担任任何职务。今年5月20日公司公布的《2021年创板限制性股票激励计划》中芯国际多名高管在列，周子学、蒋尚义、赵海军、梁孟松均分到40万股，而“少壮派”吴金刚却只得16万股。中芯国际流失的岂止是高管。干不好“人事”，或许将成为阻碍中芯国际的重要因素。","content":"<html><body><article><img src=\"http://inews.gtimg.com/newsapp_match/0/13735568322/0\"/><p><strong>文 | 华商韬略 王寒</strong></p><p><strong>一年内，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SMI\">中芯国际</a>第二次因人事问题上了热搜，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/688981\">中芯国际</a>真干不成“人事”？</strong></p><p>7月5日，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00981\">中芯国际</a>发布公告：公司核心技术人员吴金刚博士因个人原因辞职，且不再担任任何职务。</p><p>消息一出，市场哗然。吴金刚实乃中芯国际的元老级人物，而且还是最为关键的技术研发岗。自2001年——也就是公司成立第二年起，吴金刚就加入中芯国际，一路从助理总监做到了技术研发副总裁。</p><p>在中芯国际，吴金刚主导推动N+1工艺修正，比14纳米功耗降低了57%、逻辑面积小了63%、SOC面积减少了55%，正好和7纳米芯片相当。凭借这一工艺，中芯国际有机会绕过了ASML的EUV光刻机，实现了7纳米芯片。</p><img src=\"http://inews.gtimg.com/newsapp_match/0/13735568331/0\"/><p>中芯国际，这家被视为中国半导体产业“芯希望”的公司，最引人关注部分，却是不同时期的人事斗争，而非技术突破。</p><p>在灵魂人物张汝京被张忠谋设计逼走，善于平衡的“定海神针”江上舟离世后，中芯国际一直被人事动荡干扰，造芯进程屡被波及，比如以CEO王宁国、COO杨士宁二人为首的斗争，以及背后股东的控制权争夺。</p><p>2020年末，中芯国际联席主席梁孟松突然向董事会致函提出离职，原因是在“毫无所悉的情况下，得知蒋尚义将出任公司副董事长一职”，<strong>表示自己没有得到应有的尊重和信任。</strong></p><p>梁孟松在<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSM\">台积电</a>率先研发130nm铜制程，打破了<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/IBM\">IBM</a>的技术霸权；在三星抢先攻克14nm制程，推动三星半导体迅速崛起。</p><img src=\"http://inews.gtimg.com/newsapp_match/0/13735568324/0\"/><p><strong>2017年加入中芯国际后，梁孟松带领团队完成了从28nm到7nm——共五个世代的技术开发，而5nm、3nm技术也将进入全面开发阶段。</strong></p><p>如果说，中芯在没有梁孟松之前，是一步一步走的话，有了梁孟松之后，等于直接开始了百米冲刺，三年走完了台积电十年的路。</p><p>但就这样一个股肱之臣，却差点被逼走了。</p><p><strong>按马云的话说，员工辞职了，一是钱给少了，二是心里受委屈了。于梁孟松，委屈可能大于钱少。</strong></p><p>梁孟松来中芯国际也根本不是为了钱。2020年年8月，美团CEO王兴在<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WB\">微博</a>中透露，梁孟松先生将自己在中芯国际的所有薪水，全部捐给了国内某个教育基金做了公益。王兴称赞他说：“不为赚钱，就为了争一口气，牛！”</p><img src=\"http://inews.gtimg.com/newsapp_match/0/13735568315/0\"/><p>蒋尚义的辈分、资历都比梁孟松高出一截，两人在台积电就有过节。在这种情况下，梁锦松能否持续主导研发大局，或许才是他最为关切的利益。</p><p>中芯国际当然不能放弃这员猛将，不仅把他年薪从34万美元提升至135万美元，还附赠了一套价值2000万的住宅作为安抚，离职风波才暂告平息。</p><p><strong>这次吴金刚出走，或将损失近千万<span>股权激励</span>和超两百万的年薪。是什么原因，让吴金刚将弃之不顾，铁了心要离职呢？</strong></p><p><strong>或许源于自己被轻视。</strong></p><img src=\"http://inews.gtimg.com/newsapp_match/0/13735568320/0\"/><p>今年5月20日公司公布的《2021年创板限制性股票激励计划》中芯国际多名高管在列，周子学、蒋尚义、赵海军、梁孟松均分到40万股，而“少壮派”吴金刚却只得16万股。</p><p>“不患寡而患不均。”</p><p>有半导体产业内的网友表示，“吴博士在中芯国际呆的时间里，特别是近两三年，为了技术研发，几乎放弃了休假。这种心血付出，对于常人来说，是难以想象的。正是爱之深，才会恨之切。也许对于吴博士来说根本算不上痛恨，但是确实内心里非常的遗憾和不满，其实新闻链接里的股票配比，大家可以看得清清楚楚。技术大牛吴博士在核心管理层里是拿得最少的。这其实对于一个把自己所有精力都奉献给研发的人来说，内心里的不满可想而知。”</p><img src=\"http://inews.gtimg.com/newsapp_match/0/13735568333/0\"/><p>中芯国际流失的岂止是高管。2018年中芯国际在上海、北京、深圳工厂的员工流失率分别为52.2%、25.7%、11.7%，整体流失率为22%，较同业均值高出1.3倍。 2019年员工整体流失率降低至17.5%。</p><p>反观台积电，近年的年度离职率一直在5%以下。</p><p><strong>干不好“人事”，或许将成为阻碍中芯国际的重要因素。</strong></p><p>——END——</p><p>欢迎关注【华商韬略】，识风云人物，读韬略传奇。</p><p><strong>版权所有，禁止私自转载！</strong></p><p><strong>部分图片来源于网络</strong></p><p><strong>如涉及侵权，请联系删除</strong></p></article></body></html>","source":"tencent","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>弃千万激励，元老出走，中芯国际还能挑起中国芯逆袭重任吗？</title>\n<style 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margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n弃千万激励，元老出走，中芯国际还能挑起中国芯逆袭重任吗？\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-07-06 17:57 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN2021070618003779cf3786&s=b><strong>华商韬略</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>文 | 华商韬略 王寒一年内，中芯国际第二次因人事问题上了热搜，中芯国际真干不成“人事”？7月5日，中芯国际发布公告：公司核心技术人员吴金刚博士因个人原因辞职，且不再担任任何职务。消息一出，市场哗然。吴金刚实乃中芯国际的元老级人物，而且还是最为关键的技术研发岗。自2001年——也就是公司成立第二年起，吴金刚就加入中芯国际，一路从助理总监做到了技术研发副总裁。在中芯国际，吴金刚主导推动N+1工艺修正...</p>\n\n<a href=\"http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN2021070618003779cf3786&s=b\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/51fb9fb4bb9a78041d2403ab1f31481b","relate_stocks":{"688981":"中芯国际","SMI":"VanEck HIP Sustainable Muni ETF","00981":"中芯国际"},"source_url":"http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN2021070618003779cf3786&s=b","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/9a95c1376e76363c1401fee7d3717173","article_id":"2149547603","content_text":"文 | 华商韬略 王寒一年内，中芯国际第二次因人事问题上了热搜，中芯国际真干不成“人事”？7月5日，中芯国际发布公告：公司核心技术人员吴金刚博士因个人原因辞职，且不再担任任何职务。消息一出，市场哗然。吴金刚实乃中芯国际的元老级人物，而且还是最为关键的技术研发岗。自2001年——也就是公司成立第二年起，吴金刚就加入中芯国际，一路从助理总监做到了技术研发副总裁。在中芯国际，吴金刚主导推动N+1工艺修正，比14纳米功耗降低了57%、逻辑面积小了63%、SOC面积减少了55%，正好和7纳米芯片相当。凭借这一工艺，中芯国际有机会绕过了ASML的EUV光刻机，实现了7纳米芯片。中芯国际，这家被视为中国半导体产业“芯希望”的公司，最引人关注部分，却是不同时期的人事斗争，而非技术突破。在灵魂人物张汝京被张忠谋设计逼走，善于平衡的“定海神针”江上舟离世后，中芯国际一直被人事动荡干扰，造芯进程屡被波及，比如以CEO王宁国、COO杨士宁二人为首的斗争，以及背后股东的控制权争夺。2020年末，中芯国际联席主席梁孟松突然向董事会致函提出离职，原因是在“毫无所悉的情况下，得知蒋尚义将出任公司副董事长一职”，表示自己没有得到应有的尊重和信任。梁孟松在台积电率先研发130nm铜制程，打破了IBM的技术霸权；在三星抢先攻克14nm制程，推动三星半导体迅速崛起。2017年加入中芯国际后，梁孟松带领团队完成了从28nm到7nm——共五个世代的技术开发，而5nm、3nm技术也将进入全面开发阶段。如果说，中芯在没有梁孟松之前，是一步一步走的话，有了梁孟松之后，等于直接开始了百米冲刺，三年走完了台积电十年的路。但就这样一个股肱之臣，却差点被逼走了。按马云的话说，员工辞职了，一是钱给少了，二是心里受委屈了。于梁孟松，委屈可能大于钱少。梁孟松来中芯国际也根本不是为了钱。2020年年8月，美团CEO王兴在微博中透露，梁孟松先生将自己在中芯国际的所有薪水，全部捐给了国内某个教育基金做了公益。王兴称赞他说：“不为赚钱，就为了争一口气，牛！”蒋尚义的辈分、资历都比梁孟松高出一截，两人在台积电就有过节。在这种情况下，梁锦松能否持续主导研发大局，或许才是他最为关切的利益。中芯国际当然不能放弃这员猛将，不仅把他年薪从34万美元提升至135万美元，还附赠了一套价值2000万的住宅作为安抚，离职风波才暂告平息。这次吴金刚出走，或将损失近千万股权激励和超两百万的年薪。是什么原因，让吴金刚将弃之不顾，铁了心要离职呢？或许源于自己被轻视。今年5月20日公司公布的《2021年创板限制性股票激励计划》中芯国际多名高管在列，周子学、蒋尚义、赵海军、梁孟松均分到40万股，而“少壮派”吴金刚却只得16万股。“不患寡而患不均。”有半导体产业内的网友表示，“吴博士在中芯国际呆的时间里，特别是近两三年，为了技术研发，几乎放弃了休假。这种心血付出，对于常人来说，是难以想象的。正是爱之深，才会恨之切。也许对于吴博士来说根本算不上痛恨，但是确实内心里非常的遗憾和不满，其实新闻链接里的股票配比，大家可以看得清清楚楚。技术大牛吴博士在核心管理层里是拿得最少的。这其实对于一个把自己所有精力都奉献给研发的人来说，内心里的不满可想而知。”中芯国际流失的岂止是高管。2018年中芯国际在上海、北京、深圳工厂的员工流失率分别为52.2%、25.7%、11.7%，整体流失率为22%，较同业均值高出1.3倍。 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