FreedomKim的个人主页 - 老虎社区

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2021-08-13

太厉害了

抱歉，原内容已删除

2021-08-01

连沙子都涨

抱歉，原内容已删除

2021-07-20

淘特第一

淘特为何能出淘？

2021-07-20

Gpu 来定价

NVIDIA助力网鱼网咖全面技术升级深化合作定义行业新模式

2021-07-08

Nice

抱歉，原内容已删除

2021-07-08

小鹏第一

天天拍车：小鹏、蔚来二手车6月品牌竞价热度超过了特斯拉

2021-07-07

Right management

抱歉，原内容已删除

2021-07-05

阿里太强了

阿里CEO张勇：阿里没有对外讲过的“真相”

2021-07-04

高飞了

抱歉，原内容已删除

2021-07-02

很完整的dcf估值

抱歉，原内容已删除

2021-07-01

Strong buy👍

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2021-06-29

The chart only show 3% that is higher PS and lower revenue growth. Where to find the 90%?

Palantir: The Mass Exodus

2021-06-29

$8I Holdings Ltd(8IH.AU)$ why keep shares buy back after price has rally up recently. Still undervalue?

2021-06-27

Invest the undervalue and just wait.

Alibaba: Can BABA Get Back To $300? Yes, It Can

2021-06-21

护城河涨价能力没那么强

海底捞市值四个月蒸发超2400亿港元掌门人张勇痛失“新加坡首富”之位

2021-06-20

Be the lemming with life jacket

A Stock Market Crash Is Coming: 5 High-Conviction Stocks to Buy Hand Over Fist When It Happens

2021-06-15

这是从Aswath damodaran 的部落格翻译的文章

通货膨胀与投资，虚惊一场还是公平预警？

2021-05-10

不错的分析

抱歉，原内容已删除

2021-04-01

28nm 以下只有9.2％, 多久才能追台积电？

抱歉，原内容已删除

2021-03-30

Ark

抱歉，原内容已删除

去老虎APP查看更多动态

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Store免费应用榜第一。这在APP工厂字节系不稀奇，但在阿里，霸榜产品并不多见。</p>\n<p>除了应用榜，财报数据也证明淘特表现不俗。截至今年一季度末，淘特年活跃买家为1.5亿，单季度增长5000万。同季度，阿里中国零售市场年活跃用户增加3200万。</p>\n<p>随着淘宝天猫在供给侧集中发力，阿里用户增长的重担，已经有相当部分压在了淘特肩上。</p>\n<p>淘特在集团的战略地位得以进一步上升。5月，淘特正式更名，去掉了名字中的淘宝字样。据《晚点LatePost》报道，淘特负责人汪海在更名同期升为阿里合伙人。</p>\n<figure>\n<img h=\"413\" src=\"http://n.sinaimg.cn/tech/crawl/163/w550h413/20210719/5b4c-d7045c423f2c6f23812f6920f0f062b5.jpg\" w=\"550\"/>\n<h2>汪海</h2>\n</figure>\n<p>淘特得以从下沉市场突围的关键，是走了一条区别于淘宝的差异化路线，这既体现在供给端，同样体现在用户端。去年3月，淘特进行了一次重大调整，这次去淘宝化最先为外界感知的就是在产品侧的变化，改版后的淘特绝大部分商品来自产品带和产业基地——淘特最先在供给一层，逐步摆脱了对淘宝的依赖。</p>\n<p>对于淘特来说，出淘就是破圈。淘特产品负责人邹衍告诉字母榜（ID：wujicaijing），去年他主动断掉了淘宝向淘特导流的链接，双方最后一次双链互通是在去年双11。“如果我们和用户建立心智的渠道是在淘宝里，他们会永远认为我们只是淘宝的一部分。”</p>\n<p>5月在业务层面脱淘后，淘特在组织和对外形象上，进一步去淘宝化。</p>\n<p>一位淘特业务人士告诉字母榜，目前淘特有独立的商家体系、后台体系，有自己的CCO、CRO。当然在一些业务层面，淘特还需要集团支持，比如物流业务，负责淘特的菜鸟负责人需要同时向菜鸟总裁万霖和淘特事业部总经理汪海汇报。“现在淘特的配置就是一家<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/V03.SI\">创业公司</a>。”</p>\n<p>自立门户并不容易，尤其“母体”还是淘宝这样中国首屈一指的电商平台。</p>\n<p>淘宝特价版最早上线于2018年3月，它曾是阿里进攻下沉市场的主力军，汪海曾指出，淘宝特价版初期面临的最大问题是，“它的商品和淘宝其实是一排商品，供给上没有区别。”</p>\n<p>换言之，初期的淘宝特价版在很大程度上，需要依附淘宝而存在。如果货还是淘宝的那盘货，用户还是淘宝的那拨用户，就很难没能摆脱淘宝附属品的定位。</p>\n<p>于是自2018年年底，阿里进攻下沉市场的主力变为拥有独立建制的聚划算；但当初淘宝特价版因与淘宝一盘货而遇到的种种问题，曾归属于天猫多年的聚划算只会遇到更多，于是战旗又转回了淘特手中。</p>\n<p>从阿里进攻下沉市场先锋的几番转换，可以明显感知到，阿里给业务在组织上的自由度越来越高。</p>\n<figure>\n<img h=\"367\" src=\"http://n.sinaimg.cn/tech/crawl/117/w550h367/20210719/eb91-b1bb59f5f9a9e8a1381e11e39df01af3.jpg\" w=\"550\"/>\n<h2>张勇</h2>\n</figure>\n<p>上个月，宣布阿里新一轮组织架构调整时，张勇就曾在内部信中谈及敏捷组织建设，这是当下阿里正在推进的顶层战略。</p>\n<p>“面对快速变化和高度竞争的市场，我们的组织必须变得更敏捷。敏捷组织的建设必须从集团顶层开始做起”，张勇指出，“我们必须面向客户需求和产业特质，形成各业务单元经营责任制基础上的板块治理模式。”</p>\n<p>淘特就是阿里内部的经济特区。上述淘特业务人士告诉字母榜，从去年3月淘特进行重大改版起，淘特的组织架构在内网就不对其他业务部门可见了，这在淘系业务中是独一份。</p>\n<p>一位淘宝特价版的合作商家此前接受亿邦动力网采访时表示，“经过这么多年各家平台的探索，可以看到，下沉市场就是特别的，所以阿里其实也想清楚了，用特价版业务去占据下沉市场，其实比用原有平台做增量来得更加直接。”</p>\n<p>张勇在去年年底就曾明确，“阿里始终将淘宝特价版视作独立的业务来推动。”阿里给淘特的任务不是从淘宝庞大用户群中筛出下沉市场用户，而是去寻找淘宝未曾触达过或主要消费行为不在淘宝发生的用户，为阿里获得新增长。</p>\n<p>这正是淘宝特价版要更名淘特的重要原因。由于互联网公司产品命名的习惯，产品的极速版、特价版常被认作主App的其他版本，但淘特不同。</p>\n<p>淘特更名显然是要传达出这样的信息：它不是淘特的某个版本，而是一款主攻下沉市场的新产品。</p>\n<p>“我们要用自己的方式获客，淘宝老大哥曾帮我们完成了冷启动和原始用户积累，但一直通过这种方式，对大家都没有好处。”邹衍说，“永远活在别人的影子里，是做不成这件事的。”</p>\n<p>去淘系外寻找新增，是淘特重新成为阿里下沉先锋队后的第一命题。这里所谓的新增，既包括绝对意义上的淘系新增用户，也指淘宝未能满足的老用户的性价比需求。</p>\n<p>新增从哪儿找？淘特的解决方案依旧是阿里始终推崇的商品即流量，这从淘特的产品调整最先从供给侧调整开始便可以见得。</p>\n<p>去年3月，原天天特卖下的商家，B2B事业群下的1688商家作为重要商家资源被引入到淘特，淘特有了走与淘宝差异化路线的基础。</p>\n<div sax-type=\"proxy\"></div><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PDD\">拼多多</a>成功崛起，有两个要素缺一不可，一是借助微信流量实现社交裂变，这是拼多多的用户侧路线。在这一环上，淘特具有先天劣势，当然它同样有淘宝提供的冷启动用户加持。</p>\n<p>在商品供给一侧，拼多多同样曾走出了一条差异化路线，当淘宝忙着做30元客单价生意时，拼多多杀进了10元以下客单价的空白区域。</p>\n<figure>\n<img h=\"479\" src=\"http://n.sinaimg.cn/tech/crawl/229/w550h479/20210719/4ddb-64f5b9d50bdc8bc42c316b20b7629646.jpg\" w=\"550\"/>\n<h2></h2>\n</figure>\n<p>这正是淘特要将下沉市场焦点拉回到供给侧的原因。这么多年走下来，拼多多在用户心中已经形成了“低价”心智。而要争取到这群有性价比需求的用户，淘特仅有两条路可走，一是提供价格更低的同质量商品，二是在价格相同情况下，提供质量更佳的商品。</p>\n<p>“同样品类的商品，其它平台可以提供这样的价格，其实我们的商家也可以。如果用户发现我们的商品质量更好，服务更好，套路更少，自然会愿意来我们平台购买。”邹衍说。</p>\n<p>梳理淘特近一年的动作，会发现，淘特许多动作都与供给侧相关。上述淘特业务人士告诉字母榜，淘特内部组建了一支千人地面部队以与各地产业带商家保持紧密沟通，以帮助商家在淘特上开店或由淘特作为直营方帮商家销售商品。在今年淘特重点发力的食品生鲜领域，淘特采取的也是用原采地直销的方式供货。</p>\n<p>显然，淘特是想要在低价的基础上，再加上一个好货的标签。想要提供比对手价格更低，或价格相同的情况下质量更高的商品，一个关键点就是降低中间成本，即供应链能力上。</p>\n<p>当然，必须指出的是，在瞄准下沉市场的电商比拼供应链的初期阶段，货与货之间的价格差距并不大，让C端用户感知到就更难了。</p>\n<p>这时候还有一种提供低价或同价高质商品的战术存在，那就是由平台提供补贴。这既是一种供给侧玩法，同样是一种流量玩法。</p>\n<p>今年5月，淘特上线“官方补贴”频道，带有“官方补贴”标识的商品若符合条件将享受“买贵必赔”。淘特正在将平台价格拉到与拼多多同一水平面上，培养起淘特同样“低价”的心智，再用“好货”把用户留下来。</p>\n<figure>\n<img h=\"550\" src=\"http://n.sinaimg.cn/tech/crawl/300/w550h550/20210719/c8ad-6dbc3bc4e05109f5ab5d8688369ddf0a.jpg\" w=\"550\"/>\n<h2></h2>\n</figure>\n<p>有了货的基础，淘特逐渐找到了自己的增长节奏。</p>\n<p>根据阿里财报披露，2020年12月，淘特月活首次破亿，年度活跃购买用户同样超过1亿；至今年一季度末，淘特月活达1.3亿，年度活跃购买用户达1.5亿。</p>\n<p>淘特的增长已经给淘系带来了不少新增，今年一季度，阿里中国零售市场年活跃买家环比增加3200万，增长规模为近两年新高。</p>\n<p>邹衍反复强调，流量端的各类拉新方式只是触达用户的手段，淘特看重的是还是用户留存。“如果留存没做到一个水位，我们是不会去做拉新的。疯狂做增长，是没有意义的。淘特今天去做新客，是因为留存水平已经到了一个还可以的水平。”</p>\n<p>如果说过去两年，阿里还在犹豫将下沉市场的正印先锋官交给谁，淘特去年四季度的成绩已经说明一切，今年一季度这个决策的正确性再次得到印证。</p>\n<p>上述淘特业务人士告诉字母榜，淘特用户数达到一定规模后，在加大供应链投入的同时，也开始在消费者端增加投入力度。</p>\n<p>“围绕着内需、全球化、高科技这三大战略，公司会持续投入，因为我们看到了巨大增量机会。”今年5月，张勇指出，阿里生态各个业务在国内共有8.9亿用户，在将这些年度购买用户变为月度购买用户、乃至每日购买用户这件事上，以及增加用户购买品类这件事上，有巨大的潜力。</p>\n<p>另外，张勇表示，在三四线城市和农村，还有巨大用户增长空间，他提出的用户增长目标是，在新的财年，中国市场年度购买用户达到10亿，寻找新用户，就是阿里接下来会重点投入的领域。</p>\n<p>除了在供应链一侧发力，字母榜发现，淘特APP也已经集齐了下沉市场电商平台的常规拉新、促活手段。</p>\n<p>淘特首页顶部菜单栏，便设置有“天天领红包”、“砍价0元拿”、“天天赚特币”、“每日领钱”、“下单提现金”等活动，近期各个社交媒体上也不乏淘特通过社交裂变拉新的讨论出现。</p>\n<figure>\n<img h=\"493\" src=\"http://n.sinaimg.cn/tech/crawl/243/w550h493/20210719/a514-0c2242e51d053725b6eae388d1095a35.jpg\" w=\"550\"/>\n<h2></h2>\n</figure>\n<p>相比拼多多，淘特虽然曾有淘宝为其提供原始用户，但始终缺少能实现社交裂变的场所微信的助力，这逼着淘特去其他渠道寻找流量来源。</p>\n<p>今年5月，汪海接受媒体采访时曾表示，在线上渠道层面，不止微信能触达到下沉市场用户，“很多视频内容类网站，在下沉市场已经可以做到与微信100%的重叠率，另外<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DYIN\">抖音</a>、快手也是很好的投放平台。”至于线下，淘特的策略是通过阿里的买菜业务、快递网络触达用户。</p>\n<p>市场可以明显感知到，自今年二季度，淘特在用户端的补贴力度开始加大。</p>\n<p>5月底正式更名后，淘特宣布投入10亿补贴，参与618大促。另外，为了从竞争对手手中争夺用户，淘特正在主打的是“规则简单”路线，陆续上线“买返”、“买贵必赔”等活动。</p>\n<p>淘特最新的成绩是，自6月底至7月初，连续十日排名App Store免费榜第一名。</p>\n<figure>\n<img h=\"514\" src=\"http://n.sinaimg.cn/tech/crawl/264/w550h514/20210719/8499-5e55f4191f4a6e3ef8a61e4c23659635.jpg\" w=\"550\"/>\n<h2></h2>\n</figure>\n<p>今年一季度末，拼多多年活跃买家数量已达8.238亿，淘宝曾经遇到的增长问题，想必拼多多也将遭遇。这一回合，拼多多成了那个守门人，而用户基数更小的淘特成了踩着风火轮的挑战者。</p>\n<p>当然，淘特想要培养起低价好货的用户心智，还有好长的一段路要走，现阶段，许多用户对淘特的产品印象仍是模糊的。在采访中，邹衍被多次问到淘特差异化商品是什么，他的回答是，“2块9包邮的蓝牙耳机可以说明问题吧？”</p>\n<p>淘宝不会再回到3块9卖一双日抛鞋的阶段，但淘特需要更多类似2块9包邮蓝牙耳机的爆品，告诉用户，淘特在价廉之上还有物美。</p>\n<div>\n<img src=\"http://n.sinaimg.cn/default/2fb77759/20151125/320X320.png\"/>\n</div>\n</body></html>","source":"sina_tech","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>淘特为何能出淘？</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ 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class=\"title\">\n淘特为何能出淘？\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-07-19 21:08 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=http://tech.sina.cn/csj/2021-07-19/doc-ikqcfnca7807268.d.html?vt=4><strong>创事记</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>阿里巴巴启动史上最大规模校招：开放113种岗位，部分岗位首次招聘应届生\n\n\n\n\n欢迎关注“新浪科技”的微信订阅号：techsina\n文/谭宵寒\n来源/字母榜（ID：wujicaijing）\n6月底到7月初，“淘特”（改名前的淘宝特价版）连续十天排名App Store免费应用榜第一。这在APP工厂字节系不稀奇，但在阿里，霸榜产品并不多见。\n除了应用榜，财报数据也证明淘特表现不俗。截至今年一季度末，...</p>\n\n<a href=\"http://tech.sina.cn/csj/2021-07-19/doc-ikqcfnca7807268.d.html?vt=4\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://k.sinaimg.cn/n/tech/transform/140/w630h310/20210719/b2ac-ab3a716d2c0d74e215f964f59d37958b.jpg/w120h90l50t1316.jpg","relate_stocks":{"PDD":"拼多多","09988":"阿里巴巴-W"},"source_url":"http://tech.sina.cn/csj/2021-07-19/doc-ikqcfnca7807268.d.html?vt=4","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2152554576","content_text":"阿里巴巴启动史上最大规模校招：开放113种岗位，部分岗位首次招聘应届生\n\n\n\n\n欢迎关注“新浪科技”的微信订阅号：techsina\n文/谭宵寒\n来源/字母榜（ID：wujicaijing）\n6月底到7月初，“淘特”（改名前的淘宝特价版）连续十天排名App Store免费应用榜第一。这在APP工厂字节系不稀奇，但在阿里，霸榜产品并不多见。\n除了应用榜，财报数据也证明淘特表现不俗。截至今年一季度末，淘特年活跃买家为1.5亿，单季度增长5000万。同季度，阿里中国零售市场年活跃用户增加3200万。\n随着淘宝天猫在供给侧集中发力，阿里用户增长的重担，已经有相当部分压在了淘特肩上。\n淘特在集团的战略地位得以进一步上升。5月，淘特正式更名，去掉了名字中的淘宝字样。据《晚点LatePost》报道，淘特负责人汪海在更名同期升为阿里合伙人。\n\n\n汪海\n\n淘特得以从下沉市场突围的关键，是走了一条区别于淘宝的差异化路线，这既体现在供给端，同样体现在用户端。去年3月，淘特进行了一次重大调整，这次去淘宝化最先为外界感知的就是在产品侧的变化，改版后的淘特绝大部分商品来自产品带和产业基地——淘特最先在供给一层，逐步摆脱了对淘宝的依赖。\n对于淘特来说，出淘就是破圈。淘特产品负责人邹衍告诉字母榜（ID：wujicaijing），去年他主动断掉了淘宝向淘特导流的链接，双方最后一次双链互通是在去年双11。“如果我们和用户建立心智的渠道是在淘宝里，他们会永远认为我们只是淘宝的一部分。”\n5月在业务层面脱淘后，淘特在组织和对外形象上，进一步去淘宝化。\n一位淘特业务人士告诉字母榜，目前淘特有独立的商家体系、后台体系，有自己的CCO、CRO。当然在一些业务层面，淘特还需要集团支持，比如物流业务，负责淘特的菜鸟负责人需要同时向菜鸟总裁万霖和淘特事业部总经理汪海汇报。“现在淘特的配置就是一家创业公司。”\n自立门户并不容易，尤其“母体”还是淘宝这样中国首屈一指的电商平台。\n淘宝特价版最早上线于2018年3月，它曾是阿里进攻下沉市场的主力军，汪海曾指出，淘宝特价版初期面临的最大问题是，“它的商品和淘宝其实是一排商品，供给上没有区别。”\n换言之，初期的淘宝特价版在很大程度上，需要依附淘宝而存在。如果货还是淘宝的那盘货，用户还是淘宝的那拨用户，就很难没能摆脱淘宝附属品的定位。\n于是自2018年年底，阿里进攻下沉市场的主力变为拥有独立建制的聚划算；但当初淘宝特价版因与淘宝一盘货而遇到的种种问题，曾归属于天猫多年的聚划算只会遇到更多，于是战旗又转回了淘特手中。\n从阿里进攻下沉市场先锋的几番转换，可以明显感知到，阿里给业务在组织上的自由度越来越高。\n\n\n张勇\n\n上个月，宣布阿里新一轮组织架构调整时，张勇就曾在内部信中谈及敏捷组织建设，这是当下阿里正在推进的顶层战略。\n“面对快速变化和高度竞争的市场，我们的组织必须变得更敏捷。敏捷组织的建设必须从集团顶层开始做起”，张勇指出，“我们必须面向客户需求和产业特质，形成各业务单元经营责任制基础上的板块治理模式。”\n淘特就是阿里内部的经济特区。上述淘特业务人士告诉字母榜，从去年3月淘特进行重大改版起，淘特的组织架构在内网就不对其他业务部门可见了，这在淘系业务中是独一份。\n一位淘宝特价版的合作商家此前接受亿邦动力网采访时表示，“经过这么多年各家平台的探索，可以看到，下沉市场就是特别的，所以阿里其实也想清楚了，用特价版业务去占据下沉市场，其实比用原有平台做增量来得更加直接。”\n张勇在去年年底就曾明确，“阿里始终将淘宝特价版视作独立的业务来推动。”阿里给淘特的任务不是从淘宝庞大用户群中筛出下沉市场用户，而是去寻找淘宝未曾触达过或主要消费行为不在淘宝发生的用户，为阿里获得新增长。\n这正是淘宝特价版要更名淘特的重要原因。由于互联网公司产品命名的习惯，产品的极速版、特价版常被认作主App的其他版本，但淘特不同。\n淘特更名显然是要传达出这样的信息：它不是淘特的某个版本，而是一款主攻下沉市场的新产品。\n“我们要用自己的方式获客，淘宝老大哥曾帮我们完成了冷启动和原始用户积累，但一直通过这种方式，对大家都没有好处。”邹衍说，“永远活在别人的影子里，是做不成这件事的。”\n去淘系外寻找新增，是淘特重新成为阿里下沉先锋队后的第一命题。这里所谓的新增，既包括绝对意义上的淘系新增用户，也指淘宝未能满足的老用户的性价比需求。\n新增从哪儿找？淘特的解决方案依旧是阿里始终推崇的商品即流量，这从淘特的产品调整最先从供给侧调整开始便可以见得。\n去年3月，原天天特卖下的商家，B2B事业群下的1688商家作为重要商家资源被引入到淘特，淘特有了走与淘宝差异化路线的基础。\n拼多多成功崛起，有两个要素缺一不可，一是借助微信流量实现社交裂变，这是拼多多的用户侧路线。在这一环上，淘特具有先天劣势，当然它同样有淘宝提供的冷启动用户加持。\n在商品供给一侧，拼多多同样曾走出了一条差异化路线，当淘宝忙着做30元客单价生意时，拼多多杀进了10元以下客单价的空白区域。\n\n\n\n\n这正是淘特要将下沉市场焦点拉回到供给侧的原因。这么多年走下来，拼多多在用户心中已经形成了“低价”心智。而要争取到这群有性价比需求的用户，淘特仅有两条路可走，一是提供价格更低的同质量商品，二是在价格相同情况下，提供质量更佳的商品。\n“同样品类的商品，其它平台可以提供这样的价格，其实我们的商家也可以。如果用户发现我们的商品质量更好，服务更好，套路更少，自然会愿意来我们平台购买。”邹衍说。\n梳理淘特近一年的动作，会发现，淘特许多动作都与供给侧相关。上述淘特业务人士告诉字母榜，淘特内部组建了一支千人地面部队以与各地产业带商家保持紧密沟通，以帮助商家在淘特上开店或由淘特作为直营方帮商家销售商品。在今年淘特重点发力的食品生鲜领域，淘特采取的也是用原采地直销的方式供货。\n显然，淘特是想要在低价的基础上，再加上一个好货的标签。想要提供比对手价格更低，或价格相同的情况下质量更高的商品，一个关键点就是降低中间成本，即供应链能力上。\n当然，必须指出的是，在瞄准下沉市场的电商比拼供应链的初期阶段，货与货之间的价格差距并不大，让C端用户感知到就更难了。\n这时候还有一种提供低价或同价高质商品的战术存在，那就是由平台提供补贴。这既是一种供给侧玩法，同样是一种流量玩法。\n今年5月，淘特上线“官方补贴”频道，带有“官方补贴”标识的商品若符合条件将享受“买贵必赔”。淘特正在将平台价格拉到与拼多多同一水平面上，培养起淘特同样“低价”的心智，再用“好货”把用户留下来。\n\n\n\n\n有了货的基础，淘特逐渐找到了自己的增长节奏。\n根据阿里财报披露，2020年12月，淘特月活首次破亿，年度活跃购买用户同样超过1亿；至今年一季度末，淘特月活达1.3亿，年度活跃购买用户达1.5亿。\n淘特的增长已经给淘系带来了不少新增，今年一季度，阿里中国零售市场年活跃买家环比增加3200万，增长规模为近两年新高。\n邹衍反复强调，流量端的各类拉新方式只是触达用户的手段，淘特看重的是还是用户留存。“如果留存没做到一个水位，我们是不会去做拉新的。疯狂做增长，是没有意义的。淘特今天去做新客，是因为留存水平已经到了一个还可以的水平。”\n如果说过去两年，阿里还在犹豫将下沉市场的正印先锋官交给谁，淘特去年四季度的成绩已经说明一切，今年一季度这个决策的正确性再次得到印证。\n上述淘特业务人士告诉字母榜，淘特用户数达到一定规模后，在加大供应链投入的同时，也开始在消费者端增加投入力度。\n“围绕着内需、全球化、高科技这三大战略，公司会持续投入，因为我们看到了巨大增量机会。”今年5月，张勇指出，阿里生态各个业务在国内共有8.9亿用户，在将这些年度购买用户变为月度购买用户、乃至每日购买用户这件事上，以及增加用户购买品类这件事上，有巨大的潜力。\n另外，张勇表示，在三四线城市和农村，还有巨大用户增长空间，他提出的用户增长目标是，在新的财年，中国市场年度购买用户达到10亿，寻找新用户，就是阿里接下来会重点投入的领域。\n除了在供应链一侧发力，字母榜发现，淘特APP也已经集齐了下沉市场电商平台的常规拉新、促活手段。\n淘特首页顶部菜单栏，便设置有“天天领红包”、“砍价0元拿”、“天天赚特币”、“每日领钱”、“下单提现金”等活动，近期各个社交媒体上也不乏淘特通过社交裂变拉新的讨论出现。\n\n\n\n\n相比拼多多，淘特虽然曾有淘宝为其提供原始用户，但始终缺少能实现社交裂变的场所微信的助力，这逼着淘特去其他渠道寻找流量来源。\n今年5月，汪海接受媒体采访时曾表示，在线上渠道层面，不止微信能触达到下沉市场用户，“很多视频内容类网站，在下沉市场已经可以做到与微信100%的重叠率，另外抖音、快手也是很好的投放平台。”至于线下，淘特的策略是通过阿里的买菜业务、快递网络触达用户。\n市场可以明显感知到，自今年二季度，淘特在用户端的补贴力度开始加大。\n5月底正式更名后，淘特宣布投入10亿补贴，参与618大促。另外，为了从竞争对手手中争夺用户，淘特正在主打的是“规则简单”路线，陆续上线“买返”、“买贵必赔”等活动。\n淘特最新的成绩是，自6月底至7月初，连续十日排名App Store免费榜第一名。\n\n\n\n\n今年一季度末，拼多多年活跃买家数量已达8.238亿，淘宝曾经遇到的增长问题，想必拼多多也将遭遇。这一回合，拼多多成了那个守门人，而用户基数更小的淘特成了踩着风火轮的挑战者。\n当然，淘特想要培养起低价好货的用户心智，还有好长的一段路要走，现阶段，许多用户对淘特的产品印象仍是模糊的。在采访中，邹衍被多次问到淘特差异化商品是什么，他的回答是，“2块9包邮的蓝牙耳机可以说明问题吧？”\n淘宝不会再回到3块9卖一双日抛鞋的阶段，但淘特需要更多类似2块9包邮蓝牙耳机的爆品，告诉用户，淘特在价廉之上还有物美。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":830,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":171247739,"gmtCreate":1626748043721,"gmtModify":1631893592637,"author":{"id":"3573119962682037","authorId":"3573119962682037","name":"FreedomKim","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4300b07a250f193db050a2a7c7e36dfd","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3573119962682037","idStr":"3573119962682037"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Gpu 来定价","listText":"Gpu 来定价","text":"Gpu 来定价","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/171247739","repostId":"2152651687","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2152651687","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1626710108,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2152651687?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-07-19 23:55","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"NVIDIA助力网鱼网咖全面技术升级 深化合作定义行业新模式","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2152651687","media":"sina.com.cn","summary":"7月11日，NVIDIA及网鱼网咖媒体沟通会在上海召开，NVIDIA中国区消费业务总经理张维、网鱼网咖CEO董寅鸣 出席沟通会。会上围绕NVIDIA在网吧行业支持的策略，以及和网鱼网咖更深度合作的未来，与会嘉宾展开深入交流。网鱼网咖，到目前为止，累计会员数已经超过2000万。","content":"<html><body><article><p>7月11日，NVIDIA及网鱼网咖媒体沟通会在上海召开，NVIDIA中国区消费业务总经理张维、网鱼网咖CEO董寅鸣 出席沟通会。NVIDIA作为全球领先的GPU研发商，在游戏领域绝大多数主流赛事与专业高端玩家均会选用NVIDIA GPU，这对于中国连锁网吧企业网鱼网咖来说，能够深度合作，使用最佳GPU为玩家带来最棒的游戏体验，是它们首要考虑的因素，因此双方合作备受媒体关注。</p><p>会上围绕NVIDIA在网吧行业支持的策略，以及和网鱼网咖更深度合作的未来，与会嘉宾展开深入交流。</p><p>以下为交流精选</p><p>Q：2016年之后，网吧整个行业是整体往下趋势，甚至出现一定程度的负增长。请问一下董总，您对此怎么看？在您看来，您作为网吧行业非常有代表性的一个企业，从2020年到2022年，整个网吧市场大概会有怎样的发展趋势？网鱼网咖对此有怎样的发展计划和应对措施？</p><p>董寅鸣：网吧或者网咖、电竞行业，从趋势来看，2015年达到比较高的一个高峰，网吧的数量在全国有15万家。往后延续，每年的确是有一些相应的减少，这个是客观存在的事实。特别是，从去年疫情爆发以后，很多的网吧都慢慢的没落，然后被淘汰。这也反映了一个情况，其实网吧的经营状况代表着它未来健康成长存活的条件和空间。被淘汰的都是那些环境不好，设备陈旧，经营不善的网吧。而我们觉得，未来网吧的趋势肯定是连锁化、品牌化，有相应的管理，给到用户很好的体验。无论是从设备的角度，还是环境、包房，还是门店的清洁、明亮、服务，都是取决用户最主要的需求。这是第一点。</p><p>第二，很多朋友问我，网吧未来还会存在吗？现在买电脑，自己更新电脑，很多人家里都有电脑，为什么去网吧。的确，我们会发现一个很有意思的情况，大家可以看到，在网吧玩游戏的人，尽管我跟你在一起玩，我不认识你，但是我知道你也在打游戏，我也在打游戏，你在打英雄联盟，我也在打英雄联盟，就有互动的感觉。网吧还是存在社交属性和有体验的需求，网吧这个行业还是会存在。</p><p>第三，玩游戏玩电竞是一个人相应的需求，现在电竞电子游戏又是越来越受到年轻人的喜欢。中国玩游戏，无论手游还是端游，有很多受众群体，但是硬核玩家，玩PC端游戏的人群是相当多。从全国人口数量，玩PC端电竞爱好者差不多有3亿人。这样子看，整个线下网吧也好，网咖也好，或者未来电竞这块，其实都是会有很多用户的需求。所以我们觉得网鱼网咖需要在这个行业里面做出一些不断的迭代和创新，吸引到年轻人这部分的需求。</p><p>如果各位能够看一下我们在里面玩游戏用户特征非常明显，年龄段18岁到30岁，绝大部分年轻人喜欢游戏体验。大致是这样子。</p><p>Q：NVIDIA之前对网吧行业有相关认证标准，我们想了解，网鱼目前整体认证标准达到什么样评级？对于新增的电竞酒店，是否适用之前的标准？如果不适用，是否后续会增加全新的维度？</p><p>张维：我的一个很重要的观察，大家看看网鱼收费标准，网鱼收费标准里面有一个明确说法，比如这个包间定定15块钱原因是因为3070，收20块钱原因是3080。对于网鱼的一个经营者来讲，这个GPU不是一个打游戏的工具，这个GPU是定价的工具，这是很重要的。就像对于广大卖显卡的渠道而言，GPU不是一个打游戏的东西，GPU是一个不断增长有利润的业务。对于网鱼来讲，GPU是他们服务客户的一个定价工具。这个标准比我们推出认证标准都来得重要，因为这个反映业务经营的实质，也反映了用户的认知。这比贴<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SMSN.UK\">三星</a>四星五星或者什么都重要，用这个方法来做定价，这是核心。所以我相信，他们做电竞酒店的时候，网鱼也会做这样的酒店，好的酒店，好的房间，一定会用更好的GPU。所以我相信这个是我们双方合作业务的一个结晶。</p><p>把一个GPU从技术产品变成一个商品，变成客户用它来做定价的工具，其实每一步从业务上是做很多工作，在业务上是一个大的飞跃。</p><p>董寅鸣：我们门口上有贴一条口号，高端玩家都来网鱼网咖。我们自己的定位，我们希望在网咖或者网吧或者电竞，定位比较高端，想让用户体验非常电竞化，整个游戏感觉体验也是非常高端。在设备层面，20多年来已经验证，设备配置好，用户就愿意买单，设备上座率高，所以也在不断升级和迭代。所以现在对门店有要求，必须有多少比例3060，必须要有多少比例3080等，这样才能保证进入网鱼的每个用户，都能够选择他所希望的电脑设备。</p><p>而且APP有一个功能叫做订座，可以在家里，在宿舍，在学校，可以选择周围附近的网鱼的网吧某一台高端配置的电脑。我们特意把这个配置放在APP选座的条款上，因为这个对用户来说，是非常重要的。他要有确定性的知道，我想要选择3080单人包房，现在是空着，我现在马上过来，线上做一个相应的订座。</p><p>这个是我们多年来摸索出来的经验，设备对于用户来说，他是认可的。我们可以通过这个收取更高的定价，有更好的回报，用户体验也更高。</p><p>Q：电竞酒店有没有具体的布局计划，开店数量。您怎么考虑投资回报，作为品牌店来运营。</p><p>董寅鸣：电竞酒店，可能大家也比较关注，的确在网鱼的角度，我们也关注很久。电竞酒店从差不多三年多前，我们看到市场上已经开出来一部分。但是我们也发现，现在全国范围内所存在的电竞酒店质量，客观来说参差不齐。还有，如果我说品牌的话，没有一家电竞酒店品牌做到的规模达到100家店以上，所以品牌化力量和连锁化力量目前还没有创造出来。</p><p>现在在全国电竞酒店，我们了解到的数字已经达到1万家以上。但是整个品牌力、连锁力、管理，甚至用户体验做的还不够。所以我们考虑很长时间，在今年4月份，在上海开了第一家电竞酒店，在松江。如果有兴趣，各位可以搜一下美团点评。目前为止，开了3家店，都在上海，我看每天的数据都非常好。</p><p>我们在这块准备怎么做，或者未来的布局，我有一个企图心，希望今年能够开出来30家网鱼电竞酒店。您刚才说的，因为我们对电竞酒店的定位是中高端，给用户的体验还是注重在电竞这一块，相对来说配置肯定会比较高。</p><p>投资回报，在门店设计部分中，也是追求用户的体验。我们在网鱼这么多年来有相应的电竞运营管理优势和连锁化管理的优势，我们也有信心，如果进入到电竞酒店这条路线，也会这部分发挥我们的优势。</p><p>同样的，在人力管理方面、用户体验方面，以及与会员连接部分能够有更好的体验。网鱼网咖，到目前为止，累计会员数已经超过2000万。网鱼网咖的用户跟电竞酒店的用户是高度匹配和吻合。我们发现一个很有意思的现象，来网鱼网咖，差不多70%以上是男性，年龄段是18岁到30岁占绝大部分。我们也关注到电竞酒店的用户，大部分也是男性。现在来我们这三家电竞酒店的用户，也是差不多70%男性，年龄段略微宽一点18岁到35岁为主。从网鱼网咖有很多会员，可以有优势，能够导流到电竞酒店。所以啊，现在这三家店差不多每天都是满房。</p><p>我们也很有信心，酒店的收益，第一个定价，还有入住率。如果能够保证相应的入住率，定位一个比较合适的价格，所以我们还是有很有信心，在电竞酒店行业能够有非常好的投资回报周期。</p><p>目前，根据已经经营的这段时间来预判，网鱼的电竞酒店投资回报周期能够控制在30多个月。如果大家了解酒店这个行业，一家酒店的投资回报周期在4年到5年都是比较健康的。在网鱼电竞方面，第一我们刚刚进入者，我们也在尝试，我们也在不断了解市场的状况，包括竞争对手。同样的，我们对这个产品还是有一定的信心，在这个频道上面能够做的更好。</p><p>30家，今年下半年主要聚焦上海。</p><p>张维：大家可以想想，显然咖啡不是<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SBUX\">星巴克</a>发明的，但是在星巴克进入中国之前，中国人不怎么喝咖啡，那时候不是没有咖啡，那时候有咖啡，也有雀巢，还有日式咖啡，有本地咖啡，但是做的不够好。当这些咖啡店做的不够，大家印象的是中国人不怎么喝咖啡。直到星巴克做的确实够好，体验不一样，然后就变成中国人喝咖啡。现在大家不再议论中国人是不是喝咖啡这个问题。已经很明显了。但是在星巴克之前，中国人似乎不怎么喝咖啡。</p><p>就像喜茶之前，也没有说中国人不一定喝奶茶，以前也有奶茶，广东也有、香港也有，但不是全国的现象，奶茶也不成为生活一部分。直到有像喜茶、奈雪等，做的够好，够有品牌，质量够稳定，够有形象之后，才变成一个生活现象。好像最近5年，奶茶变成生活的必需品，相信5年之前不是必需品。就像星巴克进入中国之前，咖啡不是中国人民的生活必需品。</p><p>Q：第一个，关于营收方面的问题，去年各个行业都受到疫情影响，在今年上半年，网鱼网咖营收回到2019年之前的水平了吗？第二个，之前采访过你们的公司高管，提到可能会降低网吧一半的成本，现在网鱼在这方面发展怎么样？</p><p>董寅鸣：说到营收，疫情从去年开始到目前为止，还没有完全恢复。的确，对实体行业有非常大的冲击。好处是，在这个时期，我们也在做自己的反思和复盘，未来到底该怎么走。其中有一个结论，也是在去年年中的时候，我们自己做的一个调整，我们觉得还是需要更注重用户的体验，上网游戏的体验。所以我们在去年开始，针对存量店，包括新店，都有一个调整。门店的配置要提升，门店的环境要改造，像这家店。现在有很多店，都会追求单人包房、双人包房和相应的包房比例，因为我们发现用户在这部分有需求。一部分有自己相应的封闭的隐私，还有环境的要求，清洁的要求，包房方面能够满足用户的需求。一个是配置的部分，一个是店态的部分。</p><p>还有更注重于用户服务体验，大家进来可以感受到门店清洁卫生，还有同学们微笑，亲切的接待等。通过这方面的变革，今年上半年所开的所有店，收入都特别好。因为我们的门槛要求高了，所以用户体验也好，用户进入我们门店的人次，包括消费金额也会更高，他们更认可这个高端的设备，更认可我们的环境，更认可我们的体验。</p><p>客观来说，因为我说的是公司整体，但是我们有一千家门店，有些店的配置很快，环境很不错，用户体验也很好，所以整个展现非常好。但是有些门店因为设备还是相比较整个市场来看，有点旧，或者设备需要做升级。所以在这块，我们从这个数据去说服加盟商，要求他们尽快去把门店的设备配置进一步做升级。</p><p>接下来，给到整个网吧也好，网鱼也好，整个RTX30系列配置显卡更多以后，要求更多门店做设备升级，从而给用户更好的体验。</p><p>云游戏，我们一直在关注，我们知道，在市场上有很多公司在做这方面做投入。比如说和我们内部在做这方面的创新尝试，也有和顺网合作。这部分我们也在密切关注，甚至有些店也跟对方做小范围的合作。这个技术，我们觉得未来会越来越成熟，此时此刻目前阶段还有待提升空间。但是这个方向，很多公司觉得非常不错，所以我们也期待未来技术的成熟，能够给到用户游戏的体验没有任何差异的情况下，才更有信心把这个技术导入到网吧或者电竞行业。</p><p>Q：第一个问题，关于电竞酒店的装修风格有个性化定制还是统一标准？我考虑到统一标准，相当于普通酒店加上电脑。第二个问题，网鱼网咖一直是中国电竞合作提升的，这次成立网鱼电竞是为了做自己的赛道，还是说通过自己的布局去挖掘新的选手，很多草根选手是没有站队，直接接触到，但是网鱼体量很大，全国各地都有，你们是最先能接触到的。第三个问题，我30几岁不大去网咖，RTX最根本的东西是光线追踪，而且光线追踪绝大部分都是海外游戏，网鱼网咖现在已经有海外游戏能够玩到，还是有计划做？</p><p>董寅鸣： 第一个问题，电竞酒店，目前开的三家店，客观来说，都是从之前的电竞酒店翻牌过来的，我们做了一些设备升级，人员输送去做门店运营管理。整个装修改变并不是非常大，但是就发现效益提升很高。第一用户有需求，第二我们还没有在店态的风格设计部分做进一步推进情况下，已经达到这样的成果，所以我们对未来更有信心。我们目前针对每家电竞酒店的风格，目前正在做设计，也召集了外部专业的设计师一起主攻这块。具体未来是一个风格，还是根据不同的店有不同的风格，敬请期待。</p><p>第二个问题，电竞合作。因为今天有很多网鱼市场部赛事的同学，电竞除了给用户设备方面的体验，还有一个，也是网鱼网咖之前的优势，有一个网鱼竞技场，举办了差不多有10年的一个赛事，是我们一直在运营的一个赛事IP。2019年全年有26万人次来参与网鱼竞技场。</p><p>竞技场有两方面，因为我们跟<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00700\">腾讯</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NTES\">网易</a>、暴雪这些游戏厂商合作非常好，他们要落地的很多赛事活动，第一肯定要找网鱼网咖，城市争霸赛、高校联赛等，也有很多都是网鱼独家举办。所以我们也是通过这些赛事能够吸引到更多用户，能够加入网鱼，来参与这些活动，来参与比赛，然后提升自己的竞技水平。或者跟我的同学朋友因为有这些赛事，聚集到某一个网吧网咖，来玩一下相应的活动。所以我们在网鱼电竞这个角度，未来包括电竞酒店也是一样，相应的资源会更多的分配在网鱼电竞和电竞酒店，让更多的电竞游戏爱好者能够通过到我们门店来，到我们酒店来，运用到高端的设备配置以后，一起来玩相应的游戏。</p><p>Q：NVIDIA本身是全球化的公司，像网吧这类文化在亚洲本身有一个特别性。NVIDIA在网吧布局，对于中国来说，是很重要的业务。在全球的战略布局上，NVIDIA是怎么看的？NVIDIA和网吧有更好合作和支持，帮助网吧打造哪些资源？</p><p>张维：首先，中国占NV全球的业务比例相当大，NV中国绝对是NV全球的第一大市场，比美国市场、西欧市场大得多，中国市场可能比整个南美北美加在一起生意都大，所以中国市场对NV来讲，是非常重要的一个生意。这是第一。</p><p>第二，有些你看到的文化现象或者用户现象，从表面上看是独特的。但是其中如果抽取背后的逻辑，比如说我们跟总部领导是这么抽象网吧业主，网吧业主需求，他们需要一个企业级IT的稳定性，但是他们只愿意付一个消费者的钱，但是需要拿到企业IT的稳定性，这就是网吧业主。当你把这个事情抽象到这个逻辑的时候，就是有一群人，这群人只愿意付消费者的价钱，但是需要企业级IT的稳定性，这就是网吧业务。</p><p>某个网吧有50台80台机器并不够大，但是把中国的网吧业主加在一起有8、9百万台的机器，每三年更新，每年都是三四百万台，加在一起这就是大企业，就是大企业需求，要足够的稳定性、可靠性，他们买了这个是用来赚钱的，不是用来玩的。他们有一个升级周期。而且他们的预算就是消费者的预算。这些事情说清楚，逻辑抽象清楚，无论他是一个白人，是一个黑人，是一个拉丁裔还是印度裔的工程师，他都能听懂。一个产品经理都能搞清楚，他满足这个需求，做产品就是了。从我们公司来讲，支持网吧业务，我们没有感觉到有任何文化上的问题。</p><p><strong><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SINA\">新浪</a>声明：新浪网登载此文出于传递更多信息之目的，并不意味着赞同其观点或证实其描述。</strong></p></article></body></html>","source":"tencent","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>NVIDIA助力网鱼网咖全面技术升级 深化合作定义行业新模式</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ 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0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nNVIDIA助力网鱼网咖全面技术升级 深化合作定义行业新模式\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-07-19 23:55 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN2021071923583779d4e935&s=b><strong>sina.com.cn</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>7月11日，NVIDIA及网鱼网咖媒体沟通会在上海召开，NVIDIA中国区消费业务总经理张维、网鱼网咖CEO董寅鸣 出席沟通会。NVIDIA作为全球领先的GPU研发商，在游戏领域绝大多数主流赛事与专业高端玩家均会选用NVIDIA GPU，这对于中国连锁网吧企业网鱼网咖来说，能够深度合作，使用最佳GPU为玩家带来最棒的游戏体验，是它们首要考虑的因素，因此双方合作备受媒体关注。会上围绕NVIDIA在...</p>\n\n<a href=\"http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN2021071923583779d4e935&s=b\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1c0bfebcb37e1240d16377a06ed99d55","relate_stocks":{"NVDA":"英伟达"},"source_url":"http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN2021071923583779d4e935&s=b","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/9a95c1376e76363c1401fee7d3717173","article_id":"2152651687","content_text":"7月11日，NVIDIA及网鱼网咖媒体沟通会在上海召开，NVIDIA中国区消费业务总经理张维、网鱼网咖CEO董寅鸣 出席沟通会。NVIDIA作为全球领先的GPU研发商，在游戏领域绝大多数主流赛事与专业高端玩家均会选用NVIDIA GPU，这对于中国连锁网吧企业网鱼网咖来说，能够深度合作，使用最佳GPU为玩家带来最棒的游戏体验，是它们首要考虑的因素，因此双方合作备受媒体关注。会上围绕NVIDIA在网吧行业支持的策略，以及和网鱼网咖更深度合作的未来，与会嘉宾展开深入交流。以下为交流精选Q：2016年之后，网吧整个行业是整体往下趋势，甚至出现一定程度的负增长。请问一下董总，您对此怎么看？在您看来，您作为网吧行业非常有代表性的一个企业，从2020年到2022年，整个网吧市场大概会有怎样的发展趋势？网鱼网咖对此有怎样的发展计划和应对措施？董寅鸣：网吧或者网咖、电竞行业，从趋势来看，2015年达到比较高的一个高峰，网吧的数量在全国有15万家。往后延续，每年的确是有一些相应的减少，这个是客观存在的事实。特别是，从去年疫情爆发以后，很多的网吧都慢慢的没落，然后被淘汰。这也反映了一个情况，其实网吧的经营状况代表着它未来健康成长存活的条件和空间。被淘汰的都是那些环境不好，设备陈旧，经营不善的网吧。而我们觉得，未来网吧的趋势肯定是连锁化、品牌化，有相应的管理，给到用户很好的体验。无论是从设备的角度，还是环境、包房，还是门店的清洁、明亮、服务，都是取决用户最主要的需求。这是第一点。第二，很多朋友问我，网吧未来还会存在吗？现在买电脑，自己更新电脑，很多人家里都有电脑，为什么去网吧。的确，我们会发现一个很有意思的情况，大家可以看到，在网吧玩游戏的人，尽管我跟你在一起玩，我不认识你，但是我知道你也在打游戏，我也在打游戏，你在打英雄联盟，我也在打英雄联盟，就有互动的感觉。网吧还是存在社交属性和有体验的需求，网吧这个行业还是会存在。第三，玩游戏玩电竞是一个人相应的需求，现在电竞电子游戏又是越来越受到年轻人的喜欢。中国玩游戏，无论手游还是端游，有很多受众群体，但是硬核玩家，玩PC端游戏的人群是相当多。从全国人口数量，玩PC端电竞爱好者差不多有3亿人。这样子看，整个线下网吧也好，网咖也好，或者未来电竞这块，其实都是会有很多用户的需求。所以我们觉得网鱼网咖需要在这个行业里面做出一些不断的迭代和创新，吸引到年轻人这部分的需求。如果各位能够看一下我们在里面玩游戏用户特征非常明显，年龄段18岁到30岁，绝大部分年轻人喜欢游戏体验。大致是这样子。Q：NVIDIA之前对网吧行业有相关认证标准，我们想了解，网鱼目前整体认证标准达到什么样评级？对于新增的电竞酒店，是否适用之前的标准？如果不适用，是否后续会增加全新的维度？张维：我的一个很重要的观察，大家看看网鱼收费标准，网鱼收费标准里面有一个明确说法，比如这个包间定定15块钱原因是因为3070，收20块钱原因是3080。对于网鱼的一个经营者来讲，这个GPU不是一个打游戏的工具，这个GPU是定价的工具，这是很重要的。就像对于广大卖显卡的渠道而言，GPU不是一个打游戏的东西，GPU是一个不断增长有利润的业务。对于网鱼来讲，GPU是他们服务客户的一个定价工具。这个标准比我们推出认证标准都来得重要，因为这个反映业务经营的实质，也反映了用户的认知。这比贴三星四星五星或者什么都重要，用这个方法来做定价，这是核心。所以我相信，他们做电竞酒店的时候，网鱼也会做这样的酒店，好的酒店，好的房间，一定会用更好的GPU。所以我相信这个是我们双方合作业务的一个结晶。把一个GPU从技术产品变成一个商品，变成客户用它来做定价的工具，其实每一步从业务上是做很多工作，在业务上是一个大的飞跃。董寅鸣：我们门口上有贴一条口号，高端玩家都来网鱼网咖。我们自己的定位，我们希望在网咖或者网吧或者电竞，定位比较高端，想让用户体验非常电竞化，整个游戏感觉体验也是非常高端。在设备层面，20多年来已经验证，设备配置好，用户就愿意买单，设备上座率高，所以也在不断升级和迭代。所以现在对门店有要求，必须有多少比例3060，必须要有多少比例3080等，这样才能保证进入网鱼的每个用户，都能够选择他所希望的电脑设备。而且APP有一个功能叫做订座，可以在家里，在宿舍，在学校，可以选择周围附近的网鱼的网吧某一台高端配置的电脑。我们特意把这个配置放在APP选座的条款上，因为这个对用户来说，是非常重要的。他要有确定性的知道，我想要选择3080单人包房，现在是空着，我现在马上过来，线上做一个相应的订座。这个是我们多年来摸索出来的经验，设备对于用户来说，他是认可的。我们可以通过这个收取更高的定价，有更好的回报，用户体验也更高。Q：电竞酒店有没有具体的布局计划，开店数量。您怎么考虑投资回报，作为品牌店来运营。董寅鸣：电竞酒店，可能大家也比较关注，的确在网鱼的角度，我们也关注很久。电竞酒店从差不多三年多前，我们看到市场上已经开出来一部分。但是我们也发现，现在全国范围内所存在的电竞酒店质量，客观来说参差不齐。还有，如果我说品牌的话，没有一家电竞酒店品牌做到的规模达到100家店以上，所以品牌化力量和连锁化力量目前还没有创造出来。现在在全国电竞酒店，我们了解到的数字已经达到1万家以上。但是整个品牌力、连锁力、管理，甚至用户体验做的还不够。所以我们考虑很长时间，在今年4月份，在上海开了第一家电竞酒店，在松江。如果有兴趣，各位可以搜一下美团点评。目前为止，开了3家店，都在上海，我看每天的数据都非常好。我们在这块准备怎么做，或者未来的布局，我有一个企图心，希望今年能够开出来30家网鱼电竞酒店。您刚才说的，因为我们对电竞酒店的定位是中高端，给用户的体验还是注重在电竞这一块，相对来说配置肯定会比较高。投资回报，在门店设计部分中，也是追求用户的体验。我们在网鱼这么多年来有相应的电竞运营管理优势和连锁化管理的优势，我们也有信心，如果进入到电竞酒店这条路线，也会这部分发挥我们的优势。同样的，在人力管理方面、用户体验方面，以及与会员连接部分能够有更好的体验。网鱼网咖，到目前为止，累计会员数已经超过2000万。网鱼网咖的用户跟电竞酒店的用户是高度匹配和吻合。我们发现一个很有意思的现象，来网鱼网咖，差不多70%以上是男性，年龄段是18岁到30岁占绝大部分。我们也关注到电竞酒店的用户，大部分也是男性。现在来我们这三家电竞酒店的用户，也是差不多70%男性，年龄段略微宽一点18岁到35岁为主。从网鱼网咖有很多会员，可以有优势，能够导流到电竞酒店。所以啊，现在这三家店差不多每天都是满房。我们也很有信心，酒店的收益，第一个定价，还有入住率。如果能够保证相应的入住率，定位一个比较合适的价格，所以我们还是有很有信心，在电竞酒店行业能够有非常好的投资回报周期。目前，根据已经经营的这段时间来预判，网鱼的电竞酒店投资回报周期能够控制在30多个月。如果大家了解酒店这个行业，一家酒店的投资回报周期在4年到5年都是比较健康的。在网鱼电竞方面，第一我们刚刚进入者，我们也在尝试，我们也在不断了解市场的状况，包括竞争对手。同样的，我们对这个产品还是有一定的信心，在这个频道上面能够做的更好。30家，今年下半年主要聚焦上海。张维：大家可以想想，显然咖啡不是星巴克发明的，但是在星巴克进入中国之前，中国人不怎么喝咖啡，那时候不是没有咖啡，那时候有咖啡，也有雀巢，还有日式咖啡，有本地咖啡，但是做的不够好。当这些咖啡店做的不够，大家印象的是中国人不怎么喝咖啡。直到星巴克做的确实够好，体验不一样，然后就变成中国人喝咖啡。现在大家不再议论中国人是不是喝咖啡这个问题。已经很明显了。但是在星巴克之前，中国人似乎不怎么喝咖啡。就像喜茶之前，也没有说中国人不一定喝奶茶，以前也有奶茶，广东也有、香港也有，但不是全国的现象，奶茶也不成为生活一部分。直到有像喜茶、奈雪等，做的够好，够有品牌，质量够稳定，够有形象之后，才变成一个生活现象。好像最近5年，奶茶变成生活的必需品，相信5年之前不是必需品。就像星巴克进入中国之前，咖啡不是中国人民的生活必需品。Q：第一个，关于营收方面的问题，去年各个行业都受到疫情影响，在今年上半年，网鱼网咖营收回到2019年之前的水平了吗？第二个，之前采访过你们的公司高管，提到可能会降低网吧一半的成本，现在网鱼在这方面发展怎么样？董寅鸣：说到营收，疫情从去年开始到目前为止，还没有完全恢复。的确，对实体行业有非常大的冲击。好处是，在这个时期，我们也在做自己的反思和复盘，未来到底该怎么走。其中有一个结论，也是在去年年中的时候，我们自己做的一个调整，我们觉得还是需要更注重用户的体验，上网游戏的体验。所以我们在去年开始，针对存量店，包括新店，都有一个调整。门店的配置要提升，门店的环境要改造，像这家店。现在有很多店，都会追求单人包房、双人包房和相应的包房比例，因为我们发现用户在这部分有需求。一部分有自己相应的封闭的隐私，还有环境的要求，清洁的要求，包房方面能够满足用户的需求。一个是配置的部分，一个是店态的部分。还有更注重于用户服务体验，大家进来可以感受到门店清洁卫生，还有同学们微笑，亲切的接待等。通过这方面的变革，今年上半年所开的所有店，收入都特别好。因为我们的门槛要求高了，所以用户体验也好，用户进入我们门店的人次，包括消费金额也会更高，他们更认可这个高端的设备，更认可我们的环境，更认可我们的体验。客观来说，因为我说的是公司整体，但是我们有一千家门店，有些店的配置很快，环境很不错，用户体验也很好，所以整个展现非常好。但是有些门店因为设备还是相比较整个市场来看，有点旧，或者设备需要做升级。所以在这块，我们从这个数据去说服加盟商，要求他们尽快去把门店的设备配置进一步做升级。接下来，给到整个网吧也好，网鱼也好，整个RTX30系列配置显卡更多以后，要求更多门店做设备升级，从而给用户更好的体验。云游戏，我们一直在关注，我们知道，在市场上有很多公司在做这方面做投入。比如说和我们内部在做这方面的创新尝试，也有和顺网合作。这部分我们也在密切关注，甚至有些店也跟对方做小范围的合作。这个技术，我们觉得未来会越来越成熟，此时此刻目前阶段还有待提升空间。但是这个方向，很多公司觉得非常不错，所以我们也期待未来技术的成熟，能够给到用户游戏的体验没有任何差异的情况下，才更有信心把这个技术导入到网吧或者电竞行业。Q：第一个问题，关于电竞酒店的装修风格有个性化定制还是统一标准？我考虑到统一标准，相当于普通酒店加上电脑。第二个问题，网鱼网咖一直是中国电竞合作提升的，这次成立网鱼电竞是为了做自己的赛道，还是说通过自己的布局去挖掘新的选手，很多草根选手是没有站队，直接接触到，但是网鱼体量很大，全国各地都有，你们是最先能接触到的。第三个问题，我30几岁不大去网咖，RTX最根本的东西是光线追踪，而且光线追踪绝大部分都是海外游戏，网鱼网咖现在已经有海外游戏能够玩到，还是有计划做？董寅鸣： 第一个问题，电竞酒店，目前开的三家店，客观来说，都是从之前的电竞酒店翻牌过来的，我们做了一些设备升级，人员输送去做门店运营管理。整个装修改变并不是非常大，但是就发现效益提升很高。第一用户有需求，第二我们还没有在店态的风格设计部分做进一步推进情况下，已经达到这样的成果，所以我们对未来更有信心。我们目前针对每家电竞酒店的风格，目前正在做设计，也召集了外部专业的设计师一起主攻这块。具体未来是一个风格，还是根据不同的店有不同的风格，敬请期待。第二个问题，电竞合作。因为今天有很多网鱼市场部赛事的同学，电竞除了给用户设备方面的体验，还有一个，也是网鱼网咖之前的优势，有一个网鱼竞技场，举办了差不多有10年的一个赛事，是我们一直在运营的一个赛事IP。2019年全年有26万人次来参与网鱼竞技场。竞技场有两方面，因为我们跟腾讯、网易、暴雪这些游戏厂商合作非常好，他们要落地的很多赛事活动，第一肯定要找网鱼网咖，城市争霸赛、高校联赛等，也有很多都是网鱼独家举办。所以我们也是通过这些赛事能够吸引到更多用户，能够加入网鱼，来参与这些活动，来参与比赛，然后提升自己的竞技水平。或者跟我的同学朋友因为有这些赛事，聚集到某一个网吧网咖，来玩一下相应的活动。所以我们在网鱼电竞这个角度，未来包括电竞酒店也是一样，相应的资源会更多的分配在网鱼电竞和电竞酒店，让更多的电竞游戏爱好者能够通过到我们门店来，到我们酒店来，运用到高端的设备配置以后，一起来玩相应的游戏。Q：NVIDIA本身是全球化的公司，像网吧这类文化在亚洲本身有一个特别性。NVIDIA在网吧布局，对于中国来说，是很重要的业务。在全球的战略布局上，NVIDIA是怎么看的？NVIDIA和网吧有更好合作和支持，帮助网吧打造哪些资源？张维：首先，中国占NV全球的业务比例相当大，NV中国绝对是NV全球的第一大市场，比美国市场、西欧市场大得多，中国市场可能比整个南美北美加在一起生意都大，所以中国市场对NV来讲，是非常重要的一个生意。这是第一。第二，有些你看到的文化现象或者用户现象，从表面上看是独特的。但是其中如果抽取背后的逻辑，比如说我们跟总部领导是这么抽象网吧业主，网吧业主需求，他们需要一个企业级IT的稳定性，但是他们只愿意付一个消费者的钱，但是需要拿到企业IT的稳定性，这就是网吧业主。当你把这个事情抽象到这个逻辑的时候，就是有一群人，这群人只愿意付消费者的价钱，但是需要企业级IT的稳定性，这就是网吧业务。某个网吧有50台80台机器并不够大，但是把中国的网吧业主加在一起有8、9百万台的机器，每三年更新，每年都是三四百万台，加在一起这就是大企业，就是大企业需求，要足够的稳定性、可靠性，他们买了这个是用来赚钱的，不是用来玩的。他们有一个升级周期。而且他们的预算就是消费者的预算。这些事情说清楚，逻辑抽象清楚，无论他是一个白人，是一个黑人，是一个拉丁裔还是印度裔的工程师，他都能听懂。一个产品经理都能搞清楚，他满足这个需求，做产品就是了。从我们公司来讲，支持网吧业务，我们没有感觉到有任何文化上的问题。新浪声明：新浪网登载此文出于传递更多信息之目的，并不意味着赞同其观点或证实其描述。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":771,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":149820685,"gmtCreate":1625715669947,"gmtModify":1631893592651,"author":{"id":"3573119962682037","authorId":"3573119962682037","name":"FreedomKim","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4300b07a250f193db050a2a7c7e36dfd","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3573119962682037","idStr":"3573119962682037"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Nice","listText":"Nice","text":"Nice","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/149820685","repostId":"1195805799","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":306,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":149815550,"gmtCreate":1625714184770,"gmtModify":1631893592661,"author":{"id":"3573119962682037","authorId":"3573119962682037","name":"FreedomKim","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4300b07a250f193db050a2a7c7e36dfd","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3573119962682037","idStr":"3573119962682037"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"小鹏第一","listText":"小鹏第一","text":"小鹏第一","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/149815550","repostId":"2149122083","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2149122083","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1625712190,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2149122083?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-07-08 10:43","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"天天拍车：小鹏、蔚来二手车6月品牌竞价热度超过了特斯拉","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2149122083","media":"TechWeb.com.cn","summary":"数据显示，小鹏、蔚来二手车6月品牌竞价热度超过了特斯拉。报告指出，6月主要新能源品牌竞价热度榜单中，TOP5品牌，国产品牌赶超国外品牌，小鹏、蔚来获得冠亚军，特斯拉、威马、北汽新能源分别位列3-5名。同时，分类车型三年保值率冠军榜中，日系车型占据大半席位。6月新能源二手车品牌成交均价排名中，特斯拉、蔚来、小鹏分列前三名。","content":"<html><body><article><p>7月8日消息，日前，天天拍车对外发布《6月二手车在线拍卖数据报告》。报告主要包含6月二手车成交概览和新能源二手车两大部分，主要从车主画像、品牌成交量、保值率等进行盘点。数据显示，小鹏、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO\">蔚来</a>二手车6月品牌竞价热度超过了<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">特斯拉</a>。</p><img src=\"https://fid-75186.picgzc.qpic.cn/20210708104256997v235n50lm10v7bh\"/><p>报告显示，在6月的品牌成交量排行榜上，大众、别克、日产的二手车成交量位列前三，福特和雪佛兰紧随其后。据介绍，品牌保有量和消费者关注度是二手车品牌成交量高的主要因素。</p><img src=\"https://fid-75186.picgzc.qpic.cn/20210708104302588v235bqgz35n2jyt\"/><p>报告指出，6月主要新能源品牌竞价热度榜单中，TOP5品牌，国产品牌赶超国外品牌，小鹏、蔚来获得冠亚军，特斯拉、威马、北汽新能源分别位列3-5名。</p><p>同时，分类车型三年保值率冠军榜中，日系车型占据大半席位。由于稀缺性的优势，雷克萨斯LX、丰田埃尔法的保值率较为突出，其中雷克萨斯LX三年保值率高达111%。</p><p>天天拍车数据显示，6月最高成交价达285万元，成交车辆为一台2年车龄的奔驰G级AMG。竞价热度最高的二手车是一台10年车龄的本田CR-V，该车在最终成交之前经过了全国买家114次的激烈竞价。6月最远成交距离1920公里，通过天天拍车的二手车在线拍卖平台，全国买家竞价，这位深圳的车主将车卖给了北京的买家。</p><img src=\"https://fid-75186.picgzc.qpic.cn/20210708104310379v235jy1bxv31u2p\"/><p>报告显示，区别于燃油车成交车龄和里程主要在8年、10万公里以上，新能源二手车交易车龄和成交里程出现了不小反差，分别是3年、3万公里以下。之所以两者换车周期分布不同，是因为新能源产品技术迭代日新月异，年居多，而年轻人猎奇的心态驱使换车的节奏相对于传统燃油车更快。</p><p>另外，从保值率这个维度来看，特斯拉Model X、丰田卡罗拉双擎分别夺取纯电动、混合动力二手车三年保值率冠军。6月新能源二手车品牌成交均价排名中，特斯拉、蔚来、小鹏分列前三名。二手车成交均价主要受到新车指导价、品牌、保有量等因素影响。</p></article></body></html>","source":"tencent","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>天天拍车：小鹏、蔚来二手车6月品牌竞价热度超过了特斯拉</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; 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height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n天天拍车：小鹏、蔚来二手车6月品牌竞价热度超过了特斯拉\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-07-08 10:43 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN2021070810431078874588&s=b><strong>TechWeb.com.cn</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>7月8日消息，日前，天天拍车对外发布《6月二手车在线拍卖数据报告》。报告主要包含6月二手车成交概览和新能源二手车两大部分，主要从车主画像、品牌成交量、保值率等进行盘点。数据显示，小鹏、蔚来二手车6月品牌竞价热度超过了特斯拉。报告显示，在6月的品牌成交量排行榜上，大众、别克、日产的二手车成交量位列前三，福特和雪佛兰紧随其后。据介绍，品牌保有量和消费者关注度是二手车品牌成交量高的主要因素。报告指出，6...</p>\n\n<a href=\"http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN2021070810431078874588&s=b\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1e9aa56586a03fdd6464e21bfe99f7b5","relate_stocks":{"XPEV":"小鹏汽车","NIO":"蔚来","09868":"小鹏汽车-W","TSLA":"特斯拉"},"source_url":"http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN2021070810431078874588&s=b","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/9a95c1376e76363c1401fee7d3717173","article_id":"2149122083","content_text":"7月8日消息，日前，天天拍车对外发布《6月二手车在线拍卖数据报告》。报告主要包含6月二手车成交概览和新能源二手车两大部分，主要从车主画像、品牌成交量、保值率等进行盘点。数据显示，小鹏、蔚来二手车6月品牌竞价热度超过了特斯拉。报告显示，在6月的品牌成交量排行榜上，大众、别克、日产的二手车成交量位列前三，福特和雪佛兰紧随其后。据介绍，品牌保有量和消费者关注度是二手车品牌成交量高的主要因素。报告指出，6月主要新能源品牌竞价热度榜单中，TOP5品牌，国产品牌赶超国外品牌，小鹏、蔚来获得冠亚军，特斯拉、威马、北汽新能源分别位列3-5名。同时，分类车型三年保值率冠军榜中，日系车型占据大半席位。由于稀缺性的优势，雷克萨斯LX、丰田埃尔法的保值率较为突出，其中雷克萨斯LX三年保值率高达111%。天天拍车数据显示，6月最高成交价达285万元，成交车辆为一台2年车龄的奔驰G级AMG。竞价热度最高的二手车是一台10年车龄的本田CR-V，该车在最终成交之前经过了全国买家114次的激烈竞价。6月最远成交距离1920公里，通过天天拍车的二手车在线拍卖平台，全国买家竞价，这位深圳的车主将车卖给了北京的买家。报告显示，区别于燃油车成交车龄和里程主要在8年、10万公里以上，新能源二手车交易车龄和成交里程出现了不小反差，分别是3年、3万公里以下。之所以两者换车周期分布不同，是因为新能源产品技术迭代日新月异，年居多，而年轻人猎奇的心态驱使换车的节奏相对于传统燃油车更快。另外，从保值率这个维度来看，特斯拉Model X、丰田卡罗拉双擎分别夺取纯电动、混合动力二手车三年保值率冠军。6月新能源二手车品牌成交均价排名中，特斯拉、蔚来、小鹏分列前三名。二手车成交均价主要受到新车指导价、品牌、保有量等因素影响。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":928,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":140388968,"gmtCreate":1625629616454,"gmtModify":1631893592675,"author":{"id":"3573119962682037","authorId":"3573119962682037","name":"FreedomKim","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4300b07a250f193db050a2a7c7e36dfd","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3573119962682037","idStr":"3573119962682037"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Right management","listText":"Right management","text":"Right 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18:22","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"阿里CEO张勇：阿里没有对外讲过的“真相”","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2148388769","media":"腾讯新闻","summary":"阿里CEO张勇：阿里没有对外讲过的“真相” 来源：腾讯新闻在战术上，两点之间距离最短；在战略上，两点之间距离永远是最长的。我2007年加入阿里，我想跟大家分享一下，从2007年以后我经历过的事情，包括跟阿里命运有关的一些决定，后面的思考和挣扎，这是外面从来没有讲过的。得到的回答“是”。当时马云就想把阿里妈妈放回到淘宝的子宫里，让它能够变成淘宝商业化的主体，同时也把阿里妈妈这个“让天下没有难做的广告”的使命，跟","content":"<html><body><p>原标题：阿里CEO张勇：阿里没有对外讲过的“真相” 来源：<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00700\">腾讯</a>新闻</p><p>在战术上，两点之间距离最短；在战略上，两点之间距离永远是最长的。</p><p>你发现战略一旦推进，就要调整，本来朝着这个方向走，但是做着做着，就发觉不对，就要调整，都是在不断的变化中前进。</p><p>这个过程中，最重要的就是信仰和坚持，第一信不信这件事情，第二你愿不愿意为此坚持。</p><p><font>来源</font>| 笔记侠（id:Notesman）</p><p><font>编辑</font>| 高维君</p><p>在座都是企业家，每个人都在运作一家公司，无论公司处于什么行当、什么生命周期，背后很多东西是相通的，对于阿里也是这样。</p><p>我2007年加入阿里，我想跟大家分享一下，从2007年以后我经历过的事情，包括跟阿里命运有关的一些决定，后面的思考和挣扎，这是外面从来没有讲过的。</p><p><font>1</font></p><p><font>决定阿里命运的几次“分分合合”</font></p><p><font>1、最英明的一次“分”：把淘宝和支付宝分开</font></p><p>我是2007年8月份到<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BABA\">阿里巴巴</a>，那个时候的阿里巴巴已经挺有名了，淘宝也已经挺大了。那年淘宝400多亿的GMV（商品交易总量），跟现在相比是小数字，但绝对数不小，而且已经形成了很多粉丝，其中有一个是我太太。</p><p>前两天他们采访我，我说我去阿里巴巴，因为我老婆是淘宝的粉丝。通常上海人不太愿意离开上海，上海人离开上海肯定有特别的原因。我当时很认真地问她：“Are you sure，我真的可以到杭州去吗？”得到的回答“是”。</p><p>我想这玩意儿应该挺有意思的，应该是一个潮流、趋势，包括和Joe（蔡崇信）、跟马总一见如故，聊得很顺，所以就去了。</p><p>我到淘宝后第二年就1000亿，之后一发而不可收拾，一年一年跑上来。在阿里9年多的时间，有很多当时觉得挺重要，事后看起来更重要的时刻，或者说当时很揪心，但是事后看起来很重要的时刻。</p><p>其中就有一件，是在我去了不久之后发生的。尽管我不是亲身经历，但我觉得是非常英明的决策，可能已经决定了阿里今天的命运。</p><p><font>这个决定就是在最早的时候，把淘宝和支付宝分开，我认为这个事情奠定了今天阿里的基础格局，今天的蚂蚁就是从原来的支付宝跑起来的。</font></p><div><img src=\"http://k.sinaimg.cn/n/spider202174/0/w480h320/20210704/7524-krwipas6383513.jpg/w720fin.jpg\"/></div><p>那时候有一句话，没有淘宝就没有支付宝，支付宝是为了解决淘宝的问题才产生的。第一，做网上交易，支付是交易的必需；第二，为了解决买卖双方互相的信用和信任问题，因为在网上人和物都摸不到，很难建立信任，于是阴差阳错想出一个支付宝。</p><p>以前英文就有，就是Escrow（笔记侠注：由第三者保存附带条件委付盖印的契约），解决了到底先信任买家还是先信任卖家的问题，其机制是中间有一个账号，买东西的人把钱放进去，买的人拿到东西以后，确认一下，钱就从中间账号给卖的人，钱货两清。</p><p><font>在今天，支付宝是很普通的一件事情，当时却是为了解决淘宝的问题而产生的。</font>今年（笔记侠注：指2016年）我们在东南亚收购了最大的电商平台（笔记侠注：Lazada，被称为“东南亚的<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMZN\">亚马逊</a>”，成立于2012年，先后推出了印尼、马来西亚、越南、菲律宾、泰国、新加坡六<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/002263\">大东南</a>亚国家市场，并且这些国家市场均保持电商第一的位置，是东南亚市场真正的一枝独秀）。</p><p>Lazada电商平台，COD（笔记侠注：Cash on Delivery 货到付款）还是很高的比例。他们跟我说“货到付款”做得怎么好，我说“货到付款”本身就是一个问题，对于买卖双方是待遇不对称的不平等交易，我凭什么东西先给你？货到付款的退货率特别高，因为没有成本，不满意就退了，对买家很好，但对卖家是不对等的。</p><p>它不是一个风险收益对称性的的交易，我们说Alipay（阿里支付）要进去，要普及这个东西，而且正好有商业场景，让担保交易在东南亚能够发展起来。</p><p><font>当时马老师和Joe几位做了一个英明决定，这玩意儿因淘宝而生，但它不属于淘宝，它可以时刻满足社会各个层面需要支付的商业场景，所以把支付宝切分出来了，</font>切分出来的好处是什么？它打开了一片天，因为一个主场景产生另外一个业务，而这个业务最终又能够变成不只是刚才那个主场景的附属物，同时变成有独立社会价值和市场价值的一个业务。</p><p><font>这里面体现了阿里非常重要的一点，就是在组织构架上，每过几年要做的事情：</font><font>分分合合。</font></p><p>“分”决定了支付宝、蚂蚁金服的命运（笔记侠注：蚂蚁金服旗下拥有支付宝、余额宝、招财宝、小贷业务、众安保险等多个品牌），没有这个“分”，它们充其量是淘宝里面的一个大部门，解决的是淘宝问题。</p><div><img src=\"http://k.sinaimg.cn/n/spider202174/750/w480h270/20210704/3e80-krwipas6383512.jpg/w720fin.jpg\"/></div><p>发展可能也不错，因为淘宝长，它也长，但是到现在，在PC时代，支付宝的份额已经跟淘宝平起平坐了，一半流水来自于淘宝，一半流水来自于市场上各种各样的商业支付场景。无线时代所有线下支付变成了手机钱包支付，带来了这个场景。</p><p><font>但是，这种“分”也是有代价的，你要保持商业场景和支付之间两大体系的协同关系。</font>原来在一起是一个部门，分开的话，支付有支付的场景，淘宝当然很大，是支付宝最重要的场景，但是当支付宝发展起来之后，业务服务的优先级就会调整。</p><p>蚂蚁金服CEO井贤栋给我发消息说，逍遥子，我必须每个月找你吃顿晚饭。我说挺好，为什么呢？他说很简单，阿里巴巴集团是蚂蚁的最大客户，最大的客户总要定期拜访。</p><p><font>“分”比“不分”要来得好，它带来的市场机会绝对是原来的场景下所看不到的，这是我们在过去的很多年当中非常经典的一个“分”的例子。</font></p><p>我们自己也在学习，在这个过程当中，考虑什么时间“分”、什么时间“合”，变得非常关键。</p><p><font>2、为什么把阿里妈妈塞回淘宝？</font></p><p>我紧接着说一个“合”的例子，是阿里妈妈。阿里妈妈是2006年诞生的，当时提出了一个宏伟的口号和口号：让天下没有难做的广告。所以就气吞山河去干新业务了，因为阿里巴巴很有平台情结，做什么事情老想做平台，然后把各方连在一起，做一个独立的广告平台。广告靠两个东西，一个是广告主，一个是媒体，它是把两个连接在一起，在中间做广告平台。</p><p>那时候门户和游戏如日中天，阿里妈妈没有自己的媒体，上头要找广告主，下头要找媒体，两头在外，中间如果没有提供核心价值，是没有超额利润的。凭什么媒体不自己去卖？通过你去卖，你最多是一个代理。</p><p>那个时候，淘宝在快速发展，突然有一天，在杭州西湖国际大厦，我们原来的办公室，我当时是淘宝的CFO，马云把我们几个叫到他的办公室，他拿着一把宝剑。他先找我们几个，他要找帮手，共同“搞定”一个人，就是吴妈（吴泳铭），阿里妈妈的创始人。要搞定什么事情呢？用马云的原话，把阿里妈妈塞回到淘宝的子宫里。</p><p>因为当时注意到一个问题了，两头在外，这买卖没法干，但是淘宝碰到什么情况呢？淘宝在发展，发展到2007年、2008年，我去了以后，我们开始大力发展P4P（直通车）业务。</p><p>那个时候我们接触到付费搜索，尝试性地把付费搜索作为一个商业服务和营销服务，接到淘宝里面，给我们的卖家用。我们突然意识到，阿里妈妈一头要找广告主，一头要找媒体，淘宝的广告主都在，已经很多了，所有卖家都是潜在广告主。淘宝自己就是媒体，那时候已经有千万级别的消费者每天到淘宝。</p><div><img src=\"http://k.sinaimg.cn/n/spider202174/738/w480h258/20210704/17c2-krwipas6383568.png/w720fin.jpg\"/></div><p>我来阿里的时候有很多段子，我是盛大CFO，跑阿里巴巴来，第一个说法是淘宝要上市了（其实淘宝没上市，结果B2B上市了）；第二个说法释张勇跑去给淘宝找商业模式，因为淘宝烧钱，这个业务不赚钱，免费市场，每年烧那么多钱，怎么赚钱？</p><p>我来了几个月以后，我搞明白一个事情，当一个地方一天有上千万人来的时候，赚钱应该是可以搞定的一件事情。但是怎么搞定？当时马云就想把阿里妈妈放回到淘宝的子宫里，让它能够变成淘宝商业化的主体，同时也把阿里妈妈这个“让天下没有难做的广告”的使命，跟阿里巴巴的使命结合起来，这两者是一体的，做广告不就是为了做生意，把生意卖出去嘛。</p><p><font>淘宝把让你做生意，延展到让你营销做得好、广告做得好，让你获得新客户，这就奠定了直到今天为止还是非常有效的，阿里妈妈整个营销平台的基础。</font></p><p>最终我们把这个事情办了，阿里妈妈回到了淘宝，吴妈仍然管阿里妈妈的商业体系。</p><p><font>这是一个非常有意思的“合”的例子，我们原来叫“生态的视角”，我个人更喜欢用“产业链”这个词。</font></p><p>原来只是买家和卖家两个角色在一个平台上，而作为平台，本来是一个交易平台，后来因为人多了，所以变成一个媒体的潜质，媒体要发挥它的商业作用，帮助广告主身上实现价值，通过为它们提供服务，从而实现自身价值。这样的结合是很有意思的产业链的延展。</p><p>阿里妈妈不用到外面去找广告主了，也不用发展什么渠道体系。最好的一点是，阿里妈妈的广告主都在互联网上经营，不需要线下的服务团队去敲门服务他，网上自助式的服务可以解决一大部分问题。</p><p><font>在很长一段时间的广告点击效果为王的年代，我们坚持“商家自我服务”，商家需要的话自己评估，在平台上能自助完成，获得高效率的服务。</font></p><p><font>3、做天猫就是“挺进大别山”，没有退路</font></p><p>我没有经历淘宝和支付宝的“分”，到2011年、2012年，我经历了另外一把更大的“分”，就是淘宝被分了，被拆成了三块：淘宝、天猫（当时的“淘宝商城”）和当时的一淘。</p><div><img src=\"http://k.sinaimg.cn/n/spider202174/776/w480h296/20210704/e820-krwipas6383567.png/w720fin.jpg\"/></div><p>当时的现状是什么？淘宝发展越来越快，大概从2008年左右开始决定做B2C，中间阴差阳错，我莫名其妙从一个CFO被有机会接触这个业务，也是命运使然，从来没有想到过，也是后来走上不归路的开始，后来一发不可收拾做业务去了，直到今天。</p><p>2011年，有一次在永福寺开会，老马下决心要把淘宝拆了。我当时的理解跟后来的理解不一样的，我当时兼着淘宝商城的Leader。拆这玩意儿，对我个人和当时的团队是好事情，业务发展多了一个空间。为什么淘宝能够发展起来，这里面有一点小奥秘，外面没有讲过，我等会告诉大家。</p><p>我后来慢慢体会这个拆的原因，觉得这里有非常有意思的考虑。</p><p><font>第一是趋势的判断</font>，觉得B2C发展势头会很猛，如果在上面盖一个大盖子，会被束缚住；</p><p>还有一条考虑，我从来没有讲过的，我后来搞明白了，就是B2C发展态势到底会怎样，包括我们自己的B2C淘宝商城能发展成什么样，时间不确定。</p><p>为什么不确定？这个市场的格局，未来到底是一个群雄割据，还是占到一个非常大份额？当时搞不清楚的。我们自己也在拼命冲，也碰到很多问题，也不一定有胜算，或料到今天的格局，当时是搞不清楚的。</p><p>请大家关注第三个东西，就是“一淘”，这个玩意儿今天为什么听不到？因为天猫已经到处都是了。中国也就五个以内的B2C，天猫占50－60%，然后<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JD\">京东</a>，剩下苏宁等。</p><p><font>当一个市场群雄割据、有多个入口的时候，需要什么？需要搜索。</font>如果就这么一两个，不需要搜索，用户先到淘宝再搜。国外用户养成的习惯是去Google搜，再去Ebay、亚马逊、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WMT\">沃尔玛</a>。在国外Google是进入互联网空间的入口，在中国不太一样。</p><p>当时搞不明白趋势会怎样，对自己家也没有100%的把握，你最后搞不清楚你能守住哪一个阵地，到底你能守住护城河前的五公里，还是能够守住护城河，还是能够守住城门？这是不一样的。</p><p>所以我们再搞了一个购物搜索，叫“一淘”，架在阿里妈妈上搞的。这个搜索未必完全服务淘宝的，你的东西好，就出来你的，别人的东西好，就出来别人的。</p><div><img src=\"http://k.sinaimg.cn/n/spider202174/794/w480h314/20210704/23a0-krwipas6383620.jpg/w720fin.jpg\"/></div><p><font>于是就变成阿里内部的“三淘”：淘宝、淘宝商城、一淘。</font></p><p>我干淘宝商城、吴泳铭干一淘、三丰干淘宝。有一天老马跟我讲，我和吴妈是“刘邓大军”，三丰是“东北野战军”，我一听，心里一打盹，谁都知道东北野战军兵强马壮，刘邓大军什么意思？</p><p><font>要么跑到终点，要么没有你的活路，一直往前跑，千里跃进大别山，而且你也不知道根据地是哪里，等你占到地方了，那就是你的了，你找不到地方，最后基本上你要么被自己灭了，要么被外面灭了。</font></p><p>分开以后，我跟整个团队Kick off（项目启动会议）说我们就是“刘邓大军”，兄弟们，我们要么往前冲，要么是没有后路的。</p><p>2011年10月份，发生了“十月围城”，“十月围城”是什么？是平台升级，希望建立一个非常严的入驻门槛，借着每年商家要续签合同的机会，提升品质门槛，包括保证金门槛，造成一大批小卖家的反弹。我是淘宝商城总裁，也是“十月围城”男一号，造成这个局面的是我本人。这么多年过去，这是我一直在反思的一件事情。</p><p><font>在那个事情平息以后，我们开始痛定思痛，开始想着淘宝和B2C淘宝商城要做切割，品牌也要做切割，淘宝商城四个字太长了，中国人分不清楚，反正就是淘宝。</font></p><div><img src=\"http://k.sinaimg.cn/n/spider202174/791/w480h311/20210704/078d-krwipas6383621.jpg/w720fin.jpg\"/></div><p>突然有一天老马给我打电话，他想了一个绝妙的名字，我说听听看，他一说“天猫”，我差点儿晕过去，他开始说服我。因为他在这方面确实有他的灵气，真的是独一无二。我最后被他说服的理由是什么？他说很简单，你想到亚马逊，最早想到什么？是那条河还是那个公司？绝大多数人想到那个公司，当然那条河也很有名。</p><p><font>品牌本身是没有意义的，关键是你Redefine（重新定义）这两个字，赋予它新的内涵，而且因为这两个字怪，怪就容易引起讨论、争论和社会关注度，容易被人记住。</font></p><p>这是我碰到过绝无仅有的一次为了对冲风险进行的布局。不瞒大家说，我经常干这样的事情。特别当阿里现在非常大的时候，怎么避免系统性风险？有的时候是要做风险对冲的。在不同的模式，有时你不知道哪个东西是对的，哪个模式是对的。</p><p><font>4、战略是打出来的，别人总结的跟你没关系</font></p><p>我一直以来的观点，战略是打出来的。</p><p>今天别人讲给你听的战略，基本上是打完以后总结的战略，当一个事情成为逻辑以后，且每个人都觉得这是战略以后，谁都没份了。世界上聪明人多，勤奋人也多，既聪明又勤奋的更多，每个人都搞清楚事情应该怎么打的时候，跟我们还会有什么关系？</p><p><font>世上本没有路，为了活命，先搞条路出来。</font></p><p>双11怎么来的？双11是为了活命来的，为了活命想出来的。2009年双11是第一次，那个时候的状态，是在艰苦的突围中找出路的时候，东试试看、西试试看。</p><p>美国有一个“黑色星期五”的节日（笔记侠注：美国圣诞节大采购一般是从感恩节之后开始的。感恩节是每年11月的第四个星期四。因此它的第二天，就是11月的第四个星期五，也是美国人大采购的第一天），那么我们也试试看，后面根本没有想到，就是为了活命的事情，让大家记住这是我们搞的，人家愿意到我们这儿来，而且分得清楚淘宝商城和淘宝。就那么一点小事情，后面的那些东西都是一步一步走过来的。</p><p>我们可能经常讲要有一个清晰的战略规划，我唱点反调，清晰的规划是课本上讲的，或者对于以前发生过的事情，在今天，从今天向前看，战略很难被清晰地规划。这里面要靠什么？<font>我认为是靠执着和坚持，大的势要走对。</font></p><p>我经常说：<font>在战术上，两点之间距离最短，这是数学原理；在战略上，两点之间距离永远是最长的。你发现这个战略一进展，就要调整了，本来朝着这个方向走，本来以为要到终点了，但是做着做着，就发觉不对，就要调整，你在走这样一个路。</font></p><p>这里面最怕的是什么？</p><p><font>最怕走回头路，有些东西坚持就是胜利，特别是新业务，核心就是信仰和坚持，第一信不信这件事情，第二你愿不愿意为此坚持。</font></p><p>当拿到一个成果，要总结一件事情，把它条理清晰化、结构化、逻辑化，变成一个战略推导的时候，它的发生过程就是因为信仰和坚持，我们信这件事情，为此愿意付出。可能咬紧牙最后扛不住了，再扛一下，过一个坎，再过下一个，就这么回事。</p><p>但是大方向要“对一下”，到底是顺势而做，还是逆势而做？</p><p>顺势而做，扛着扛着，越扛越轻松；逆势而做，会越扛越累，逆着消费习惯的变化，逆着商业的变化去做，会越来越累。</p><p>但是如果天天照着战略课本做，是做不出东西来的。</p><div><img src=\"http://k.sinaimg.cn/n/spider202174/759/w480h279/20210704/5aec-krwipas6383658.jpg/w720fin.jpg\"/></div><p><font>2</font></p><p><font>阿里的“借鸡下蛋”和“鸡孵出鸭”</font></p><p><font>1、任何业务都是可以被重新定义的</font></p><p>2005年阿里收购<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/YHOO\">雅虎</a>中国以后，那时候雅虎还是如日中天。尽管Google已经起来了，但是雅虎搜索当时还是比较强。</p><p>P4P（笔记侠注：Pay for performance的简写，按效果付费）一开始在雅虎中国用，阴差阳错的机会，让我们看到这个玩意儿。这些生产要素，淘宝都有，广告素材就是商品，而且商家不需要为这个广告素材额外花力气做，它自己就是一个商品，广告主就是商家，媒体就是淘宝，衡量它的效果好不好，就是有没有给商家带来生意。</p><p><font>一个是即期的生意，因为广告带来马上的销售，另外是远期的生意，广告带来真正有价值的客户。</font></p><p>我们买回来一只鸡，结果炖出来一只鸭，这是第一次。我们本来买的是1，然后做着做着，发觉1没做好，搞出了个2来，这是我们历史上发生好几次这样的事情。</p><p>还有一种，这只鸡本身有一定的价值，但是能不能孵出别的东西来？最后孵出了几只鹌鹑，我们就搞信息流和搞搜索。因为我们对UCweb、高德的收购，使我们在无线互联网时代形成了一个基础服务矩阵，今天大家看阿里巴巴，到底是一个电子商务公司，还是一个数据公司？从2008年、2009年以后，就把阿里定位成为数据分享的第一平台。</p><p>因为有了UC、高德，在无线互联网疆域的拓展进入崭新的空间。大家知道浏览器的日子很难过的，当时在UC进入阿里大家庭以后，开始建设自己的无线搜索，如果没有浏览器，搜索没有办法练和养的，没有场景，很难凭空在国内有<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BIDU\">百度</a>、国外有Google那么大的时候，再去从头做一个搜索，这是非常难的。</p><p>另外一只鹌鹑就是信息流，大家可以看到随着混合信息流，从图文到短视频，现在变成了互联网用户非常重要的消费内容的载体和一个Kill（杀）时间的工具。</p><p><font>任何业务是可以被重新定义的，我必须一条道跑到黑，拼命拿到结果，但是有的时候还要跳出这个局来，看看事情有没有被重新定义的可能性。</font></p><p>拼命的劲头需要勇气，但是光有勇气是不够的，信仰和坚持背后要的是智慧，就是有智慧支持的信仰和坚持，这个事情才能搞成，不然就是拼命了，也是不好搞的，这是我们背后的思考。</p><p><font>2、由来往做出钉钉，核心是客户价值</font></p><p>另外一个就是鸡没养活，养出一只鸭子来，本来我们要养一个“来往”，最后出来一个“钉钉”。</p><div><img src=\"http://k.sinaimg.cn/n/spider202174/0/w480h320/20210704/a45f-krwipas6383660.jpg/w720fin.jpg\"/></div><p>我的观点是，你这个玩意儿，和别人相比，到底提供了什么新的客户价值？提供了什么是客户必须要用你的？特别是当人家（笔记侠注：指微信）已经很大了以后，你有什么差异化的客户价值，可以进入这个市场？</p><p><font>核心词就是客户价值，第一定义谁是你的客户？</font>在阿里平台，大家会问，第一个词还用问吗？客户那么大，我说越大，越要问，为什么？</p><p><font>阿里很大，但是阿里里面每个业务必须对特定的客户群聚焦，拼起来，才能说我们服务了四亿、五亿甚至更多的用户，如果说每个小业务服务四亿五亿的客户，肯定搞不好。</font></p><p>你是2C还是2B的业务，这个策略是完全不一样的，消费者是哪群消费者？不能说所有人都是你的消费者，这违反所有业务展开的一个基本逻辑，必须要定义清晰的消费者族群，给消费者提供价值。</p><p><font>后来为什么有钉钉呢？</font></p><p><font>就是中间有信仰和有勇气，愿意坚持的那一小撮同学不愿意放弃，</font>觉得在“来往”搞不出来东西了，再搞也没用，因为一旦用户产品定型，只有一次大的机会，不可能有第二次机会，不可能突然升级换版本，变成一个完全不一样的东西。</p><p><font>原来来往团队里面很小的一撮人，觉得必须重启炉灶再搞一个，因为团队有坚持、有信仰，并且他们抓住了一些用户价值，所以今天发展得还不错</font>。</p><p>在这个产品上，我给无招（钉钉CEO）他们团队最重要的一句话是：就是做简单，要把工具类的产品做简单，化繁为简，能够抽象用户的需求，真正做成一个工具平台。很多时候老想加东西，加了就觉得满意了，其实有时越加越不满意。</p><p>我们在整个战略当中有自己的一些灵动性。很多的创新是自上而下和自下而上的结合，<font>如果在今天互联网时代，只靠自下而上的创新是不够的，很多创意在民间、在下面，我们怎么给团队一些空间，让一些东西能冒出来，同时在冒出来的时候，能够及时发现它，呵护它。</font></p><p>在鸡窝里面养出一只鸭子来，说明物种在进化、物种在发生变异。</p><div><img src=\"http://k.sinaimg.cn/n/spider202174/0/w480h320/20210704/d09a-krwipas6383712.jpg/w720fin.jpg\"/></div><p><font>3</font></p><p><font>战略思考和组织文化</font></p><p><font>1、CEO要更多思考“长远的事”和“不可为的事”</font></p><p>按照产业链的视角来讲，阿里更多会思考五年十年甚至更长时间的事情，这也是为什么阿里从2009年以后，一直坚定在云上面做投入和建设的原因。2009的云跟今天的云完全是两回事，甚至定义都是两个定义。但核心是要对未来的大势有一个判断，最终为此愿意做一些投入。</p><p><font>到目前为止，阿里非常重要也非常关注是整体业务，从2B到2C，再到大底层的云，再到文娱，再到海外，我们希望形成一个同一时间轴上不同时间点的板块轮动效应。</font></p><p>对于一个大企业，像阿里，我们必须承认一件事情，所谓“花无百日红”，没有一个业务可以一直红的，可以都像正午十二点的阳光一样，产品都有生命周期，都有高峰和低谷。</p><p>像阿里这样的大公司，怎么样避免集体性的高峰或者集体性的低谷？集体性的高峰大家都很开心，别忘了集体性的高峰就意味着集体性的低谷，在一个共振的轴上面，很容易发生这样的事情。我们的整个布局是轮动的，Joe有一次我们对于海外资本市场业绩发布会上讲过一句话，我觉得还是挺有意思的。</p><p><font>他说we work for now，we invest for tomorrow，we incubate for future（我们为今天工作，为未来投资，为未来孵化一些东西）。最后一句比较特别，为未来冒出来的一二十个小芽里，有一个芽发了，那就大发了，完全变成一个新的未来的主力业务。</font></p><p>对于阿里这样的公司，考虑比较多的视角：大文娱、云、高德、菜鸟、电商，电商还分很多种类：B2B、B2C， B2C还分国内、进出口，还分外国的本地市场，事情是做不完的，更重要的是你要抓住业务主线，为未来做投资甚至做孵化。</p><p><font>第二还是要果断做取舍。</font>尽管所有的机会看上去很漂亮，但是今天什么东西不可为，对今天的阿里来讲显得更加重要。</p><p>今天我们不缺名，品牌也很响，我们有卓越的Leader马云，业务也算还不错，也不缺钱，听上去啥都能干，但是有什么事情不能干的，这是今天站在我这个层面考虑比较多的问题：<font>什么事情不可为的。</font></p><p><font>大公司要往小做，小公司要有大的格局，我觉得非常重要，这是我们一直这么多年发展下来的一个心得。</font></p><div><img src=\"http://k.sinaimg.cn/n/spider202174/654/w400h254/20210704/fe1a-krwipas6383711.jpg/w720fin.jpg\"/></div><p><font>2、天马行空、脚踏实地；中学为体、西学为用</font></p><p>别人问我说阿里巴巴是一家什么公司？</p><p>站在我的视角，我有两句话。</p><p><font>用两句话总结，第一句话是天马行空的公司，第二句话是脚踏实地的公司，缺一不可。</font></p><p>我们有非常大的愿景，也有很多奇思妙想，甚至马云有很多古灵精怪的想法，为什么能够发展到今天，并且走下去？最重要是很多想法变成了现实，不然想得再多，也没有人信，必须变成现实，这是整个战略和执行上的两句话。</p><p>从文化上来讲，阿里是一家中学为体、西学为用的公司，这是我自己的体感。我们在文化和组织上是贯穿的，阿里喜欢太极，这里面有中国的文化思想，包括阴阳平衡，体现了我们的一些向往。同时，管理和管理机制设计按照现代企业管理制度，最后才能变成一个中西合璧的整体。</p><p><font>3、阿里喜欢两类人：不安分、能成事</font></p><p>我跟HR一直聊的话题，到底招什么样的人？</p><p><font>我说招两种人，一种是体制内的不安分者，一种是跨国公司的叛逆者，</font>体制内的不安分者日子过得很好，但老想干点啥，到我们这儿来，跨国公司里面，如果是把中国业务从零打出来的，或者他去的时候，有些东西本来没有，然后他建了这个体系。</p><p>这两年阿里业务比较好的时候，很多问题会被掩盖，看上去这个人业绩都不错，但是说到底是这个人造就了业务，还是业务造就了这个人，这是我们现在考虑比较多的。</p><div><img src=\"http://k.sinaimg.cn/n/spider202174/0/w480h320/20210704/7a62-krwipas6383750.jpg/w720fin.jpg\"/></div><p><font>最终我们还是需要找的是因人成事的人，因为这个人，Make things different（因为人，这个事情不一样）。</font></p><p>我们今天说“非凡人以平凡心做非凡事”，因为今天我们承担的责任、做的事情，真的需要有一个非凡的思考力、非凡的格局、非常的勇气，但反过来如果没有对客户的敬畏之心，不是用一个平凡心、谦卑之心、服务之心，很难做好事情。</p><p>这里面背后反映的是什么？</p><p>在一个企业，不同阶段对于人的要求是不一样的，对于人的整个引导和培养的角度需要去辩证的发展，今天就讲讲阿里的老故事，把一些我自己体会到的剧烈的变化分享给大家。</p></body></html>","source":"sina_symbol","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>阿里CEO张勇：阿里没有对外讲过的“真相”</title>\n<style 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margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n阿里CEO张勇：阿里没有对外讲过的“真相”\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-07-04 18:22 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://cj.sina.cn/article/normal_detail?url=https://finance.sina.com.cn/stock/relnews/us/2021-07-04/doc-ikqciyzk3506379.shtml><strong>腾讯新闻</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>原标题：阿里CEO张勇：阿里没有对外讲过的“真相” 来源：腾讯新闻在战术上，两点之间距离最短；在战略上，两点之间距离永远是最长的。你发现战略一旦推进，就要调整，本来朝着这个方向走，但是做着做着，就发觉不对，就要调整，都是在不断的变化中前进。这个过程中，最重要的就是信仰和坚持，第一信不信这件事情，第二你愿不愿意为此坚持。来源| 笔记侠（id:Notesman）编辑| 高维君在座都是企业家，每个人都在...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://cj.sina.cn/article/normal_detail?url=https://finance.sina.com.cn/stock/relnews/us/2021-07-04/doc-ikqciyzk3506379.shtml\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/63f5774a55811b697cdb5404ce6a4118","relate_stocks":{"09988":"阿里巴巴-W"},"source_url":"https://cj.sina.cn/article/normal_detail?url=https://finance.sina.com.cn/stock/relnews/us/2021-07-04/doc-ikqciyzk3506379.shtml","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2148388769","content_text":"原标题：阿里CEO张勇：阿里没有对外讲过的“真相” 来源：腾讯新闻在战术上，两点之间距离最短；在战略上，两点之间距离永远是最长的。你发现战略一旦推进，就要调整，本来朝着这个方向走，但是做着做着，就发觉不对，就要调整，都是在不断的变化中前进。这个过程中，最重要的就是信仰和坚持，第一信不信这件事情，第二你愿不愿意为此坚持。来源| 笔记侠（id:Notesman）编辑| 高维君在座都是企业家，每个人都在运作一家公司，无论公司处于什么行当、什么生命周期，背后很多东西是相通的，对于阿里也是这样。我2007年加入阿里，我想跟大家分享一下，从2007年以后我经历过的事情，包括跟阿里命运有关的一些决定，后面的思考和挣扎，这是外面从来没有讲过的。1决定阿里命运的几次“分分合合”1、最英明的一次“分”：把淘宝和支付宝分开我是2007年8月份到阿里巴巴，那个时候的阿里巴巴已经挺有名了，淘宝也已经挺大了。那年淘宝400多亿的GMV（商品交易总量），跟现在相比是小数字，但绝对数不小，而且已经形成了很多粉丝，其中有一个是我太太。前两天他们采访我，我说我去阿里巴巴，因为我老婆是淘宝的粉丝。通常上海人不太愿意离开上海，上海人离开上海肯定有特别的原因。我当时很认真地问她：“Are you sure，我真的可以到杭州去吗？”得到的回答“是”。我想这玩意儿应该挺有意思的，应该是一个潮流、趋势，包括和Joe（蔡崇信）、跟马总一见如故，聊得很顺，所以就去了。我到淘宝后第二年就1000亿，之后一发而不可收拾，一年一年跑上来。在阿里9年多的时间，有很多当时觉得挺重要，事后看起来更重要的时刻，或者说当时很揪心，但是事后看起来很重要的时刻。其中就有一件，是在我去了不久之后发生的。尽管我不是亲身经历，但我觉得是非常英明的决策，可能已经决定了阿里今天的命运。这个决定就是在最早的时候，把淘宝和支付宝分开，我认为这个事情奠定了今天阿里的基础格局，今天的蚂蚁就是从原来的支付宝跑起来的。那时候有一句话，没有淘宝就没有支付宝，支付宝是为了解决淘宝的问题才产生的。第一，做网上交易，支付是交易的必需；第二，为了解决买卖双方互相的信用和信任问题，因为在网上人和物都摸不到，很难建立信任，于是阴差阳错想出一个支付宝。以前英文就有，就是Escrow（笔记侠注：由第三者保存附带条件委付盖印的契约），解决了到底先信任买家还是先信任卖家的问题，其机制是中间有一个账号，买东西的人把钱放进去，买的人拿到东西以后，确认一下，钱就从中间账号给卖的人，钱货两清。在今天，支付宝是很普通的一件事情，当时却是为了解决淘宝的问题而产生的。今年（笔记侠注：指2016年）我们在东南亚收购了最大的电商平台（笔记侠注：Lazada，被称为“东南亚的亚马逊”，成立于2012年，先后推出了印尼、马来西亚、越南、菲律宾、泰国、新加坡六大东南亚国家市场，并且这些国家市场均保持电商第一的位置，是东南亚市场真正的一枝独秀）。Lazada电商平台，COD（笔记侠注：Cash on Delivery 货到付款）还是很高的比例。他们跟我说“货到付款”做得怎么好，我说“货到付款”本身就是一个问题，对于买卖双方是待遇不对称的不平等交易，我凭什么东西先给你？货到付款的退货率特别高，因为没有成本，不满意就退了，对买家很好，但对卖家是不对等的。它不是一个风险收益对称性的的交易，我们说Alipay（阿里支付）要进去，要普及这个东西，而且正好有商业场景，让担保交易在东南亚能够发展起来。当时马老师和Joe几位做了一个英明决定，这玩意儿因淘宝而生，但它不属于淘宝，它可以时刻满足社会各个层面需要支付的商业场景，所以把支付宝切分出来了，切分出来的好处是什么？它打开了一片天，因为一个主场景产生另外一个业务，而这个业务最终又能够变成不只是刚才那个主场景的附属物，同时变成有独立社会价值和市场价值的一个业务。这里面体现了阿里非常重要的一点，就是在组织构架上，每过几年要做的事情：分分合合。“分”决定了支付宝、蚂蚁金服的命运（笔记侠注：蚂蚁金服旗下拥有支付宝、余额宝、招财宝、小贷业务、众安保险等多个品牌），没有这个“分”，它们充其量是淘宝里面的一个大部门，解决的是淘宝问题。发展可能也不错，因为淘宝长，它也长，但是到现在，在PC时代，支付宝的份额已经跟淘宝平起平坐了，一半流水来自于淘宝，一半流水来自于市场上各种各样的商业支付场景。无线时代所有线下支付变成了手机钱包支付，带来了这个场景。但是，这种“分”也是有代价的，你要保持商业场景和支付之间两大体系的协同关系。原来在一起是一个部门，分开的话，支付有支付的场景，淘宝当然很大，是支付宝最重要的场景，但是当支付宝发展起来之后，业务服务的优先级就会调整。蚂蚁金服CEO井贤栋给我发消息说，逍遥子，我必须每个月找你吃顿晚饭。我说挺好，为什么呢？他说很简单，阿里巴巴集团是蚂蚁的最大客户，最大的客户总要定期拜访。“分”比“不分”要来得好，它带来的市场机会绝对是原来的场景下所看不到的，这是我们在过去的很多年当中非常经典的一个“分”的例子。我们自己也在学习，在这个过程当中，考虑什么时间“分”、什么时间“合”，变得非常关键。2、为什么把阿里妈妈塞回淘宝？我紧接着说一个“合”的例子，是阿里妈妈。阿里妈妈是2006年诞生的，当时提出了一个宏伟的口号和口号：让天下没有难做的广告。所以就气吞山河去干新业务了，因为阿里巴巴很有平台情结，做什么事情老想做平台，然后把各方连在一起，做一个独立的广告平台。广告靠两个东西，一个是广告主，一个是媒体，它是把两个连接在一起，在中间做广告平台。那时候门户和游戏如日中天，阿里妈妈没有自己的媒体，上头要找广告主，下头要找媒体，两头在外，中间如果没有提供核心价值，是没有超额利润的。凭什么媒体不自己去卖？通过你去卖，你最多是一个代理。那个时候，淘宝在快速发展，突然有一天，在杭州西湖国际大厦，我们原来的办公室，我当时是淘宝的CFO，马云把我们几个叫到他的办公室，他拿着一把宝剑。他先找我们几个，他要找帮手，共同“搞定”一个人，就是吴妈（吴泳铭），阿里妈妈的创始人。要搞定什么事情呢？用马云的原话，把阿里妈妈塞回到淘宝的子宫里。因为当时注意到一个问题了，两头在外，这买卖没法干，但是淘宝碰到什么情况呢？淘宝在发展，发展到2007年、2008年，我去了以后，我们开始大力发展P4P（直通车）业务。那个时候我们接触到付费搜索，尝试性地把付费搜索作为一个商业服务和营销服务，接到淘宝里面，给我们的卖家用。我们突然意识到，阿里妈妈一头要找广告主，一头要找媒体，淘宝的广告主都在，已经很多了，所有卖家都是潜在广告主。淘宝自己就是媒体，那时候已经有千万级别的消费者每天到淘宝。我来阿里的时候有很多段子，我是盛大CFO，跑阿里巴巴来，第一个说法是淘宝要上市了（其实淘宝没上市，结果B2B上市了）；第二个说法释张勇跑去给淘宝找商业模式，因为淘宝烧钱，这个业务不赚钱，免费市场，每年烧那么多钱，怎么赚钱？我来了几个月以后，我搞明白一个事情，当一个地方一天有上千万人来的时候，赚钱应该是可以搞定的一件事情。但是怎么搞定？当时马云就想把阿里妈妈放回到淘宝的子宫里，让它能够变成淘宝商业化的主体，同时也把阿里妈妈这个“让天下没有难做的广告”的使命，跟阿里巴巴的使命结合起来，这两者是一体的，做广告不就是为了做生意，把生意卖出去嘛。淘宝把让你做生意，延展到让你营销做得好、广告做得好，让你获得新客户，这就奠定了直到今天为止还是非常有效的，阿里妈妈整个营销平台的基础。最终我们把这个事情办了，阿里妈妈回到了淘宝，吴妈仍然管阿里妈妈的商业体系。这是一个非常有意思的“合”的例子，我们原来叫“生态的视角”，我个人更喜欢用“产业链”这个词。原来只是买家和卖家两个角色在一个平台上，而作为平台，本来是一个交易平台，后来因为人多了，所以变成一个媒体的潜质，媒体要发挥它的商业作用，帮助广告主身上实现价值，通过为它们提供服务，从而实现自身价值。这样的结合是很有意思的产业链的延展。阿里妈妈不用到外面去找广告主了，也不用发展什么渠道体系。最好的一点是，阿里妈妈的广告主都在互联网上经营，不需要线下的服务团队去敲门服务他，网上自助式的服务可以解决一大部分问题。在很长一段时间的广告点击效果为王的年代，我们坚持“商家自我服务”，商家需要的话自己评估，在平台上能自助完成，获得高效率的服务。3、做天猫就是“挺进大别山”，没有退路我没有经历淘宝和支付宝的“分”，到2011年、2012年，我经历了另外一把更大的“分”，就是淘宝被分了，被拆成了三块：淘宝、天猫（当时的“淘宝商城”）和当时的一淘。当时的现状是什么？淘宝发展越来越快，大概从2008年左右开始决定做B2C，中间阴差阳错，我莫名其妙从一个CFO被有机会接触这个业务，也是命运使然，从来没有想到过，也是后来走上不归路的开始，后来一发不可收拾做业务去了，直到今天。2011年，有一次在永福寺开会，老马下决心要把淘宝拆了。我当时的理解跟后来的理解不一样的，我当时兼着淘宝商城的Leader。拆这玩意儿，对我个人和当时的团队是好事情，业务发展多了一个空间。为什么淘宝能够发展起来，这里面有一点小奥秘，外面没有讲过，我等会告诉大家。我后来慢慢体会这个拆的原因，觉得这里有非常有意思的考虑。第一是趋势的判断，觉得B2C发展势头会很猛，如果在上面盖一个大盖子，会被束缚住；还有一条考虑，我从来没有讲过的，我后来搞明白了，就是B2C发展态势到底会怎样，包括我们自己的B2C淘宝商城能发展成什么样，时间不确定。为什么不确定？这个市场的格局，未来到底是一个群雄割据，还是占到一个非常大份额？当时搞不清楚的。我们自己也在拼命冲，也碰到很多问题，也不一定有胜算，或料到今天的格局，当时是搞不清楚的。请大家关注第三个东西，就是“一淘”，这个玩意儿今天为什么听不到？因为天猫已经到处都是了。中国也就五个以内的B2C，天猫占50－60%，然后京东，剩下苏宁等。当一个市场群雄割据、有多个入口的时候，需要什么？需要搜索。如果就这么一两个，不需要搜索，用户先到淘宝再搜。国外用户养成的习惯是去Google搜，再去Ebay、亚马逊、沃尔玛。在国外Google是进入互联网空间的入口，在中国不太一样。当时搞不明白趋势会怎样，对自己家也没有100%的把握，你最后搞不清楚你能守住哪一个阵地，到底你能守住护城河前的五公里，还是能够守住护城河，还是能够守住城门？这是不一样的。所以我们再搞了一个购物搜索，叫“一淘”，架在阿里妈妈上搞的。这个搜索未必完全服务淘宝的，你的东西好，就出来你的，别人的东西好，就出来别人的。于是就变成阿里内部的“三淘”：淘宝、淘宝商城、一淘。我干淘宝商城、吴泳铭干一淘、三丰干淘宝。有一天老马跟我讲，我和吴妈是“刘邓大军”，三丰是“东北野战军”，我一听，心里一打盹，谁都知道东北野战军兵强马壮，刘邓大军什么意思？要么跑到终点，要么没有你的活路，一直往前跑，千里跃进大别山，而且你也不知道根据地是哪里，等你占到地方了，那就是你的了，你找不到地方，最后基本上你要么被自己灭了，要么被外面灭了。分开以后，我跟整个团队Kick off（项目启动会议）说我们就是“刘邓大军”，兄弟们，我们要么往前冲，要么是没有后路的。2011年10月份，发生了“十月围城”，“十月围城”是什么？是平台升级，希望建立一个非常严的入驻门槛，借着每年商家要续签合同的机会，提升品质门槛，包括保证金门槛，造成一大批小卖家的反弹。我是淘宝商城总裁，也是“十月围城”男一号，造成这个局面的是我本人。这么多年过去，这是我一直在反思的一件事情。在那个事情平息以后，我们开始痛定思痛，开始想着淘宝和B2C淘宝商城要做切割，品牌也要做切割，淘宝商城四个字太长了，中国人分不清楚，反正就是淘宝。突然有一天老马给我打电话，他想了一个绝妙的名字，我说听听看，他一说“天猫”，我差点儿晕过去，他开始说服我。因为他在这方面确实有他的灵气，真的是独一无二。我最后被他说服的理由是什么？他说很简单，你想到亚马逊，最早想到什么？是那条河还是那个公司？绝大多数人想到那个公司，当然那条河也很有名。品牌本身是没有意义的，关键是你Redefine（重新定义）这两个字，赋予它新的内涵，而且因为这两个字怪，怪就容易引起讨论、争论和社会关注度，容易被人记住。这是我碰到过绝无仅有的一次为了对冲风险进行的布局。不瞒大家说，我经常干这样的事情。特别当阿里现在非常大的时候，怎么避免系统性风险？有的时候是要做风险对冲的。在不同的模式，有时你不知道哪个东西是对的，哪个模式是对的。4、战略是打出来的，别人总结的跟你没关系我一直以来的观点，战略是打出来的。今天别人讲给你听的战略，基本上是打完以后总结的战略，当一个事情成为逻辑以后，且每个人都觉得这是战略以后，谁都没份了。世界上聪明人多，勤奋人也多，既聪明又勤奋的更多，每个人都搞清楚事情应该怎么打的时候，跟我们还会有什么关系？世上本没有路，为了活命，先搞条路出来。双11怎么来的？双11是为了活命来的，为了活命想出来的。2009年双11是第一次，那个时候的状态，是在艰苦的突围中找出路的时候，东试试看、西试试看。美国有一个“黑色星期五”的节日（笔记侠注：美国圣诞节大采购一般是从感恩节之后开始的。感恩节是每年11月的第四个星期四。因此它的第二天，就是11月的第四个星期五，也是美国人大采购的第一天），那么我们也试试看，后面根本没有想到，就是为了活命的事情，让大家记住这是我们搞的，人家愿意到我们这儿来，而且分得清楚淘宝商城和淘宝。就那么一点小事情，后面的那些东西都是一步一步走过来的。我们可能经常讲要有一个清晰的战略规划，我唱点反调，清晰的规划是课本上讲的，或者对于以前发生过的事情，在今天，从今天向前看，战略很难被清晰地规划。这里面要靠什么？我认为是靠执着和坚持，大的势要走对。我经常说：在战术上，两点之间距离最短，这是数学原理；在战略上，两点之间距离永远是最长的。你发现这个战略一进展，就要调整了，本来朝着这个方向走，本来以为要到终点了，但是做着做着，就发觉不对，就要调整，你在走这样一个路。这里面最怕的是什么？最怕走回头路，有些东西坚持就是胜利，特别是新业务，核心就是信仰和坚持，第一信不信这件事情，第二你愿不愿意为此坚持。当拿到一个成果，要总结一件事情，把它条理清晰化、结构化、逻辑化，变成一个战略推导的时候，它的发生过程就是因为信仰和坚持，我们信这件事情，为此愿意付出。可能咬紧牙最后扛不住了，再扛一下，过一个坎，再过下一个，就这么回事。但是大方向要“对一下”，到底是顺势而做，还是逆势而做？顺势而做，扛着扛着，越扛越轻松；逆势而做，会越扛越累，逆着消费习惯的变化，逆着商业的变化去做，会越来越累。但是如果天天照着战略课本做，是做不出东西来的。2阿里的“借鸡下蛋”和“鸡孵出鸭”1、任何业务都是可以被重新定义的2005年阿里收购雅虎中国以后，那时候雅虎还是如日中天。尽管Google已经起来了，但是雅虎搜索当时还是比较强。P4P（笔记侠注：Pay for performance的简写，按效果付费）一开始在雅虎中国用，阴差阳错的机会，让我们看到这个玩意儿。这些生产要素，淘宝都有，广告素材就是商品，而且商家不需要为这个广告素材额外花力气做，它自己就是一个商品，广告主就是商家，媒体就是淘宝，衡量它的效果好不好，就是有没有给商家带来生意。一个是即期的生意，因为广告带来马上的销售，另外是远期的生意，广告带来真正有价值的客户。我们买回来一只鸡，结果炖出来一只鸭，这是第一次。我们本来买的是1，然后做着做着，发觉1没做好，搞出了个2来，这是我们历史上发生好几次这样的事情。还有一种，这只鸡本身有一定的价值，但是能不能孵出别的东西来？最后孵出了几只鹌鹑，我们就搞信息流和搞搜索。因为我们对UCweb、高德的收购，使我们在无线互联网时代形成了一个基础服务矩阵，今天大家看阿里巴巴，到底是一个电子商务公司，还是一个数据公司？从2008年、2009年以后，就把阿里定位成为数据分享的第一平台。因为有了UC、高德，在无线互联网疆域的拓展进入崭新的空间。大家知道浏览器的日子很难过的，当时在UC进入阿里大家庭以后，开始建设自己的无线搜索，如果没有浏览器，搜索没有办法练和养的，没有场景，很难凭空在国内有百度、国外有Google那么大的时候，再去从头做一个搜索，这是非常难的。另外一只鹌鹑就是信息流，大家可以看到随着混合信息流，从图文到短视频，现在变成了互联网用户非常重要的消费内容的载体和一个Kill（杀）时间的工具。任何业务是可以被重新定义的，我必须一条道跑到黑，拼命拿到结果，但是有的时候还要跳出这个局来，看看事情有没有被重新定义的可能性。拼命的劲头需要勇气，但是光有勇气是不够的，信仰和坚持背后要的是智慧，就是有智慧支持的信仰和坚持，这个事情才能搞成，不然就是拼命了，也是不好搞的，这是我们背后的思考。2、由来往做出钉钉，核心是客户价值另外一个就是鸡没养活，养出一只鸭子来，本来我们要养一个“来往”，最后出来一个“钉钉”。我的观点是，你这个玩意儿，和别人相比，到底提供了什么新的客户价值？提供了什么是客户必须要用你的？特别是当人家（笔记侠注：指微信）已经很大了以后，你有什么差异化的客户价值，可以进入这个市场？核心词就是客户价值，第一定义谁是你的客户？在阿里平台，大家会问，第一个词还用问吗？客户那么大，我说越大，越要问，为什么？阿里很大，但是阿里里面每个业务必须对特定的客户群聚焦，拼起来，才能说我们服务了四亿、五亿甚至更多的用户，如果说每个小业务服务四亿五亿的客户，肯定搞不好。你是2C还是2B的业务，这个策略是完全不一样的，消费者是哪群消费者？不能说所有人都是你的消费者，这违反所有业务展开的一个基本逻辑，必须要定义清晰的消费者族群，给消费者提供价值。后来为什么有钉钉呢？就是中间有信仰和有勇气，愿意坚持的那一小撮同学不愿意放弃，觉得在“来往”搞不出来东西了，再搞也没用，因为一旦用户产品定型，只有一次大的机会，不可能有第二次机会，不可能突然升级换版本，变成一个完全不一样的东西。原来来往团队里面很小的一撮人，觉得必须重启炉灶再搞一个，因为团队有坚持、有信仰，并且他们抓住了一些用户价值，所以今天发展得还不错。在这个产品上，我给无招（钉钉CEO）他们团队最重要的一句话是：就是做简单，要把工具类的产品做简单，化繁为简，能够抽象用户的需求，真正做成一个工具平台。很多时候老想加东西，加了就觉得满意了，其实有时越加越不满意。我们在整个战略当中有自己的一些灵动性。很多的创新是自上而下和自下而上的结合，如果在今天互联网时代，只靠自下而上的创新是不够的，很多创意在民间、在下面，我们怎么给团队一些空间，让一些东西能冒出来，同时在冒出来的时候，能够及时发现它，呵护它。在鸡窝里面养出一只鸭子来，说明物种在进化、物种在发生变异。3战略思考和组织文化1、CEO要更多思考“长远的事”和“不可为的事”按照产业链的视角来讲，阿里更多会思考五年十年甚至更长时间的事情，这也是为什么阿里从2009年以后，一直坚定在云上面做投入和建设的原因。2009的云跟今天的云完全是两回事，甚至定义都是两个定义。但核心是要对未来的大势有一个判断，最终为此愿意做一些投入。到目前为止，阿里非常重要也非常关注是整体业务，从2B到2C，再到大底层的云，再到文娱，再到海外，我们希望形成一个同一时间轴上不同时间点的板块轮动效应。对于一个大企业，像阿里，我们必须承认一件事情，所谓“花无百日红”，没有一个业务可以一直红的，可以都像正午十二点的阳光一样，产品都有生命周期，都有高峰和低谷。像阿里这样的大公司，怎么样避免集体性的高峰或者集体性的低谷？集体性的高峰大家都很开心，别忘了集体性的高峰就意味着集体性的低谷，在一个共振的轴上面，很容易发生这样的事情。我们的整个布局是轮动的，Joe有一次我们对于海外资本市场业绩发布会上讲过一句话，我觉得还是挺有意思的。他说we work for now，we invest for tomorrow，we incubate for future（我们为今天工作，为未来投资，为未来孵化一些东西）。最后一句比较特别，为未来冒出来的一二十个小芽里，有一个芽发了，那就大发了，完全变成一个新的未来的主力业务。对于阿里这样的公司，考虑比较多的视角：大文娱、云、高德、菜鸟、电商，电商还分很多种类：B2B、B2C， B2C还分国内、进出口，还分外国的本地市场，事情是做不完的，更重要的是你要抓住业务主线，为未来做投资甚至做孵化。第二还是要果断做取舍。尽管所有的机会看上去很漂亮，但是今天什么东西不可为，对今天的阿里来讲显得更加重要。今天我们不缺名，品牌也很响，我们有卓越的Leader马云，业务也算还不错，也不缺钱，听上去啥都能干，但是有什么事情不能干的，这是今天站在我这个层面考虑比较多的问题：什么事情不可为的。大公司要往小做，小公司要有大的格局，我觉得非常重要，这是我们一直这么多年发展下来的一个心得。2、天马行空、脚踏实地；中学为体、西学为用别人问我说阿里巴巴是一家什么公司？站在我的视角，我有两句话。用两句话总结，第一句话是天马行空的公司，第二句话是脚踏实地的公司，缺一不可。我们有非常大的愿景，也有很多奇思妙想，甚至马云有很多古灵精怪的想法，为什么能够发展到今天，并且走下去？最重要是很多想法变成了现实，不然想得再多，也没有人信，必须变成现实，这是整个战略和执行上的两句话。从文化上来讲，阿里是一家中学为体、西学为用的公司，这是我自己的体感。我们在文化和组织上是贯穿的，阿里喜欢太极，这里面有中国的文化思想，包括阴阳平衡，体现了我们的一些向往。同时，管理和管理机制设计按照现代企业管理制度，最后才能变成一个中西合璧的整体。3、阿里喜欢两类人：不安分、能成事我跟HR一直聊的话题，到底招什么样的人？我说招两种人，一种是体制内的不安分者，一种是跨国公司的叛逆者，体制内的不安分者日子过得很好，但老想干点啥，到我们这儿来，跨国公司里面，如果是把中国业务从零打出来的，或者他去的时候，有些东西本来没有，然后他建了这个体系。这两年阿里业务比较好的时候，很多问题会被掩盖，看上去这个人业绩都不错，但是说到底是这个人造就了业务，还是业务造就了这个人，这是我们现在考虑比较多的。最终我们还是需要找的是因人成事的人，因为这个人，Make things different（因为人，这个事情不一样）。我们今天说“非凡人以平凡心做非凡事”，因为今天我们承担的责任、做的事情，真的需要有一个非凡的思考力、非凡的格局、非常的勇气，但反过来如果没有对客户的敬畏之心，不是用一个平凡心、谦卑之心、服务之心，很难做好事情。这里面背后反映的是什么？在一个企业，不同阶段对于人的要求是不一样的，对于人的整个引导和培养的角度需要去辩证的发展，今天就讲讲阿里的老故事，把一些我自己体会到的剧烈的变化分享给大家。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":734,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":155985636,"gmtCreate":1625369540125,"gmtModify":1631893592703,"author":{"id":"3573119962682037","authorId":"3573119962682037","name":"FreedomKim","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4300b07a250f193db050a2a7c7e36dfd","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3573119962682037","idStr":"3573119962682037"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"高飞了","listText":"高飞了","text":"高飞了","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/155985636","repostId":"2148793038","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1031,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":156352969,"gmtCreate":1625197688251,"gmtModify":1631893592717,"author":{"id":"3573119962682037","authorId":"3573119962682037","name":"FreedomKim","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4300b07a250f193db050a2a7c7e36dfd","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3573119962682037","idStr":"3573119962682037"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"很完整的dcf估值","listText":"很完整的dcf估值","text":"很完整的dcf估值","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/156352969","repostId":"2148847206","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1085,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":151725833,"gmtCreate":1625108336922,"gmtModify":1633944692728,"author":{"id":"3573119962682037","authorId":"3573119962682037","name":"FreedomKim","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4300b07a250f193db050a2a7c7e36dfd","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3573119962682037","idStr":"3573119962682037"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Strong buy👍","listText":"Strong buy👍","text":"Strong buy👍","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/151725833","repostId":"1176914673","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":418,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":159070704,"gmtCreate":1624933283308,"gmtModify":1633946808695,"author":{"id":"3573119962682037","authorId":"3573119962682037","name":"FreedomKim","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4300b07a250f193db050a2a7c7e36dfd","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3573119962682037","idStr":"3573119962682037"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"The chart only show 3% that is higher PS and lower revenue growth. Where to find the 90%?","listText":"The chart only show 3% that is higher PS and lower revenue growth. Where to find the 90%?","text":"The chart only show 3% that is higher PS and lower revenue growth. Where to find the 90%?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/159070704","repostId":"1105982179","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1105982179","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1624889210,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1105982179?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-28 22:06","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Palantir: The Mass Exodus","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1105982179","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Summary\n\nShort interest in Palantir dropped by 23.8% in the latest cycle.\nEven though Palantir conti","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p>\n<ul>\n <li>Short interest in Palantir dropped by 23.8% in the latest cycle.</li>\n <li>Even though Palantir continues to be surrounded by bearish narratives, market participants don't seem to be comfortable with shorting the stock.</li>\n <li>The stock could rally further.</li>\n</ul>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/16279727ada0c46eb4d43744da02d1cc\" tg-width=\"768\" tg-height=\"512\"><span>Michael Vi/iStock Editorial via Getty Images</span></p>\n<p>Palantir's (PLTR) shares are up 20% in the last month alone but the rally could still continue. Latest data reveals that short interest in Palantir declined by 23.8% in the latest cycle alone. This suggests that a broad swath of market participants isn't buying into the bearish narratives surrounding the company, perceive its stock to be fairly valued and perhaps even anticipate it to rally going forward. This development should come across as an encouraging sign for the company's long-side investors. Let's take a closer look at it all.</p>\n<p><b>The Data</b></p>\n<p>I'd like to start by explaining the term \"short interest\" for the uninitiated. It's essentially the total number of short positions that are open against any given stock. A sharp rise in the metric indicates that traders grew bearish on the concerned company, and actively initiated short positions against it. Conversely, a sharp decline in the metric indicates that traders actively wound up their short positions either perhaps because they anticipate the stock to bottom out and/or rally going forward. So, the short interest is a useful tool to gauge the Street's ever-evolving market sentiment.</p>\n<p>In Palantir's case, its short interest at the end of the latest data cycle stood at 52.3 million, sharply down by 23.8% on a sequential basis. Although Palantir's short interest figure isn't at its all-time low yet, the pace of its recent decline, however, is certainly one of the fastest in the company's brief history since its direct listing last year. For the record, Palantir has over 1.8 billion shares outstanding which means that about 2.8% of its entire share total had been shorted. Also, the short interest data is for the cycle spanning from early June to mid-June, and the data wasreleasedon Thursday.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/95e4623fda1d9079a2699b57d4ee0f42\" tg-width=\"637\" tg-height=\"450\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>Next, I wanted to confirm if other software application companies also registered a sharp reduction in their short interest figures, or was Palantir an anomaly in its peer group. So, to get a broader perspective on its industry, I pulled the short interest figures for about 100 software application stocks listed in the US. Interestingly, 55% of these stocks registered a net reduction in their short interest figures, of varying magnitudes of course, which points to an industry-wide short unwinding.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/091feec9aa17f821d01f34a7b46bb2bb\" tg-width=\"610\" tg-height=\"506\"><span>(Source: BusinessQuant.com, Wsj.com)</span></p>\n<p>Moreover, the median short interest decline was 1.9%, whereas Palantir's short interest declined by a far more significant 23.8% during the same data cycle. In fact, there were just 6 other stocks in our study group, which saw their short interest decline in excess of 23.8%. This conclusively shows that market participants were far too active with unwinding their short positions in Palantir.</p>\n<p>But this leads us to an important question - why are market participants so cautious with shorting Palantir in the first place?</p>\n<p><b>Cautious for Good Reason</b></p>\n<p>As I've explained in my prior articles, Palantir has several initiatives at play which could collectively catapult its growth in 2021-22. These initiatives include itstransitionto a customer-friendly payment model to boost commercial sales, offeringfree trialsto major companies to expand its sales funnel and expanding itssales teamto revamp its outbound marketing function. We won't be discussing the same points again to avoid being repetitive, but the takeaway here is that since Palantir is undertaking several growth initiatives, it makes for a risky short bet for the time being at least.</p>\n<p>But don't take my word for it.</p>\n<p>The community of professional analysts is realizing Palantir's growth potential and raising their revenue estimates for its current fiscal year. They've raised their FY21 revenue estimates by about 5% so far since mid-January and there's no telling how many of such upward revenue revisions are still in store for the remainder of Palantir's FY21. This bullish uncertainty presents an unfavorable risk-reward ratio for short-side market participants and explains why short interest in Palantir continues to decline.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/74bccdf90ceb880c1a3edddad8743a1e\" tg-width=\"636\" tg-height=\"419\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>There's another point to consider here, that nobody seems to be talking about. Palantir has won several COVID-19 tracking-related contracts (such ashere,here,here,hereandhere) over the last 12 - 15 months as government agencies across the globe grappled to control the spread and tried to better manage their resources. With COVID-19 said to be making a fierce comeback with thedelta variant, I contend that Palantir could experience a similar order windfall this year, from proactive government agencies, which could boost the company's government sales along the way.</p>\n<p>Lastly, several commenters argue that Palantir's shares are trading at a premium and are due for a sharp correction. Its shares are trading at about 34-times trailing twelve-month sales so it's understandable why many might think that the stock is overvalued. But I believe the problem with this approach is that we're not factoring in industry-wide trading multiples or Palantir's revenue growth rate, compared to its peers.</p>\n<p>So, to put things in perspective, I compiled the revenue growth rates and price-to-sales (or P/S) multiples for over 320 software infrastructure and software application stocks that are currently listed on US exchanges. Next, I benchmarked these industry groups based on Palantir's revenue growth rate and its P/S multiple. As it turns out, over 90% of Palantir's peers have a slower revenue growth and/or are trading at higher trading multiples. This suggests that Palantir's higher pace of growth justifies its price premium and that the bearish concerns regarding its valuations, are exaggerated.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fefb171f61438817b747d6a50fff8133\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"414\"><span>(Source: Business Quant.com)</span></p>\n<p><b>Final Thoughts</b></p>\n<p>I'd like to point to readers that fluctuations in short interest figures don't always impact the underlying stock prices. This data is based on short positions that were open at a prior cut-off date and investors with a long-term time horizon should, at best, use it to corroborate their bull or bear thesis.</p>\n<p>Having said that, if the bearish narratives surrounding Palantir held any merit, or posed a legitimate risk to its share price, a broad swath of market participants would've actively shorted the stock to profit off of this near-certain eventuality. But that didn't happen and its short interest declined instead, that too by a significant amount.</p>\n<p>This active short unwinding indicates that market participants are uncomfortable in shorting the stock at current levels. This should come across as a reassuring sign for the company's long-side shareholders. The stock seems to be fairly valued and has the potential to rally further. Good Luck!</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Palantir: The Mass Exodus</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nPalantir: The Mass Exodus\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-06-28 22:06 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4436907-palantir-the-mass-exodus><strong>seekingalpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Summary\n\nShort interest in Palantir dropped by 23.8% in the latest cycle.\nEven though Palantir continues to be surrounded by bearish narratives, market participants don't seem to be comfortable with ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4436907-palantir-the-mass-exodus\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"PLTR":"Palantir Technologies Inc."},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4436907-palantir-the-mass-exodus","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1105982179","content_text":"Summary\n\nShort interest in Palantir dropped by 23.8% in the latest cycle.\nEven though Palantir continues to be surrounded by bearish narratives, market participants don't seem to be comfortable with shorting the stock.\nThe stock could rally further.\n\nMichael Vi/iStock Editorial via Getty Images\nPalantir's (PLTR) shares are up 20% in the last month alone but the rally could still continue. Latest data reveals that short interest in Palantir declined by 23.8% in the latest cycle alone. This suggests that a broad swath of market participants isn't buying into the bearish narratives surrounding the company, perceive its stock to be fairly valued and perhaps even anticipate it to rally going forward. This development should come across as an encouraging sign for the company's long-side investors. Let's take a closer look at it all.\nThe Data\nI'd like to start by explaining the term \"short interest\" for the uninitiated. It's essentially the total number of short positions that are open against any given stock. A sharp rise in the metric indicates that traders grew bearish on the concerned company, and actively initiated short positions against it. Conversely, a sharp decline in the metric indicates that traders actively wound up their short positions either perhaps because they anticipate the stock to bottom out and/or rally going forward. So, the short interest is a useful tool to gauge the Street's ever-evolving market sentiment.\nIn Palantir's case, its short interest at the end of the latest data cycle stood at 52.3 million, sharply down by 23.8% on a sequential basis. Although Palantir's short interest figure isn't at its all-time low yet, the pace of its recent decline, however, is certainly one of the fastest in the company's brief history since its direct listing last year. For the record, Palantir has over 1.8 billion shares outstanding which means that about 2.8% of its entire share total had been shorted. Also, the short interest data is for the cycle spanning from early June to mid-June, and the data wasreleasedon Thursday.\n\nNext, I wanted to confirm if other software application companies also registered a sharp reduction in their short interest figures, or was Palantir an anomaly in its peer group. So, to get a broader perspective on its industry, I pulled the short interest figures for about 100 software application stocks listed in the US. Interestingly, 55% of these stocks registered a net reduction in their short interest figures, of varying magnitudes of course, which points to an industry-wide short unwinding.\n(Source: BusinessQuant.com, Wsj.com)\nMoreover, the median short interest decline was 1.9%, whereas Palantir's short interest declined by a far more significant 23.8% during the same data cycle. In fact, there were just 6 other stocks in our study group, which saw their short interest decline in excess of 23.8%. This conclusively shows that market participants were far too active with unwinding their short positions in Palantir.\nBut this leads us to an important question - why are market participants so cautious with shorting Palantir in the first place?\nCautious for Good Reason\nAs I've explained in my prior articles, Palantir has several initiatives at play which could collectively catapult its growth in 2021-22. These initiatives include itstransitionto a customer-friendly payment model to boost commercial sales, offeringfree trialsto major companies to expand its sales funnel and expanding itssales teamto revamp its outbound marketing function. We won't be discussing the same points again to avoid being repetitive, but the takeaway here is that since Palantir is undertaking several growth initiatives, it makes for a risky short bet for the time being at least.\nBut don't take my word for it.\nThe community of professional analysts is realizing Palantir's growth potential and raising their revenue estimates for its current fiscal year. They've raised their FY21 revenue estimates by about 5% so far since mid-January and there's no telling how many of such upward revenue revisions are still in store for the remainder of Palantir's FY21. This bullish uncertainty presents an unfavorable risk-reward ratio for short-side market participants and explains why short interest in Palantir continues to decline.\n\nThere's another point to consider here, that nobody seems to be talking about. Palantir has won several COVID-19 tracking-related contracts (such ashere,here,here,hereandhere) over the last 12 - 15 months as government agencies across the globe grappled to control the spread and tried to better manage their resources. With COVID-19 said to be making a fierce comeback with thedelta variant, I contend that Palantir could experience a similar order windfall this year, from proactive government agencies, which could boost the company's government sales along the way.\nLastly, several commenters argue that Palantir's shares are trading at a premium and are due for a sharp correction. Its shares are trading at about 34-times trailing twelve-month sales so it's understandable why many might think that the stock is overvalued. But I believe the problem with this approach is that we're not factoring in industry-wide trading multiples or Palantir's revenue growth rate, compared to its peers.\nSo, to put things in perspective, I compiled the revenue growth rates and price-to-sales (or P/S) multiples for over 320 software infrastructure and software application stocks that are currently listed on US exchanges. Next, I benchmarked these industry groups based on Palantir's revenue growth rate and its P/S multiple. As it turns out, over 90% of Palantir's peers have a slower revenue growth and/or are trading at higher trading multiples. This suggests that Palantir's higher pace of growth justifies its price premium and that the bearish concerns regarding its valuations, are exaggerated.\n(Source: Business Quant.com)\nFinal Thoughts\nI'd like to point to readers that fluctuations in short interest figures don't always impact the underlying stock prices. This data is based on short positions that were open at a prior cut-off date and investors with a long-term time horizon should, at best, use it to corroborate their bull or bear thesis.\nHaving said that, if the bearish narratives surrounding Palantir held any merit, or posed a legitimate risk to its share price, a broad swath of market participants would've actively shorted the stock to profit off of this near-certain eventuality. But that didn't happen and its short interest declined instead, that too by a significant amount.\nThis active short unwinding indicates that market participants are uncomfortable in shorting the stock at current levels. This should come across as a reassuring sign for the company's long-side shareholders. The stock seems to be fairly valued and has the potential to rally further. Good Luck!","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":198,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":150797048,"gmtCreate":1624927073084,"gmtModify":1631891020025,"author":{"id":"3573119962682037","authorId":"3573119962682037","name":"FreedomKim","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4300b07a250f193db050a2a7c7e36dfd","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3573119962682037","idStr":"3573119962682037"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/8IH.AU\">$8I Holdings Ltd(8IH.AU)$</a>&nbsp;why keep shares buy back after price has rally up recently. Still undervalue?&nbsp;","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/8IH.AU\">$8I Holdings Ltd(8IH.AU)$</a>&nbsp;why keep shares buy back after price has rally up recently. Still undervalue?&nbsp;","text":"$8I Holdings Ltd(8IH.AU)$ why keep shares buy back after price has rally up recently. Still undervalue?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/150797048","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":442,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":124408630,"gmtCreate":1624776402120,"gmtModify":1633948697749,"author":{"id":"3573119962682037","authorId":"3573119962682037","name":"FreedomKim","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4300b07a250f193db050a2a7c7e36dfd","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3573119962682037","idStr":"3573119962682037"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Invest the undervalue and just wait.&nbsp;","listText":"Invest the undervalue and just wait.&nbsp;","text":"Invest the undervalue and just wait.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/124408630","repostId":"1164137597","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1164137597","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1624671774,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1164137597?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-26 09:42","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Alibaba: Can BABA Get Back To $300? Yes, It Can","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1164137597","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"The recent downturn in Alibaba's share price has created an investment opportunity for long-term capital appreciation.The Chinese economy is expected to become the world's largest economy by 2028 and more than 500 million people will be part of the middle class by end of 2023.Alibaba will experience tailwinds from individuals and businesses spending more money during this period of growth in China.Alibaba is the dominant force in cloud services in China which could become a significant revenue g","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p>\n<ul>\n <li>The recent downturn in Alibaba's share price has created an investment opportunity for long-term capital appreciation.</li>\n <li>The Chinese economy is expected to become the world's largest economy by 2028 and more than 500 million people will be part of the middle class by end of 2023.</li>\n <li>Alibaba will experience tailwinds from individuals and businesses spending more money during this period of growth in China.</li>\n <li>Alibaba is the dominant force in cloud services in China which could become a significant revenue growth machine as the economy expands.</li>\n</ul>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/814b0a9a0d17977f43665e2eba205b1e\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1024\"><span>Andrew Braun/iStock Editorial via Getty Images</span></p>\n<p>Alibaba(NYSE:BABA)operates a printing press that keeps spitting out tens of billions from total revenue down to net income. Many companies faced adversity throughout the pandemic, and some are still recovering, but not BABA. Through the worst economic environment for businesses to navigate in recent times, BABA generated over $100 billion in revenue and $20 billion in net income during their recent fiscal year. While BABA didn't get the memo about businesses facing challenges amidst the pandemic, the market must not have read BABA's earnings report or crunched the numbers.</p>\n<p>There are two Chinese companies I am bullish on, and BABA is my biggest conviction for appreciation. BABA smashed through the $300 share price level at the end of October 2020, but shareholders have been left confused and disappointed since then. It looked like BABA would turn the corner after a horrible end to 2020 as shares appreciated from $222.36 from the close of 2020 to $270.83 in the middle of February 2021. Still, the markets had other plans, and all shares of BABA have done is disappoint shareholders. If you missed the BABA train, it's time to grab your tickets and climb aboard, and if you purchased BABA during its run to $300 or early 2021 rebound, it might be time to add to your holdings. BABA is going to experience tremendous tailwinds from China's population and economic growth over the next several years, and their printing press is going to need more ink.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/86da7b532f25f563d08490ddc43cbede\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"337\"><span>(Source: Alibaba)</span></p>\n<p><b>The Alibaba printing press is open for business, and it spits out billions</b></p>\n<p>How many companies can say their annual revenue through the pandemic exceeded $100 billion? The $100 billion revenue mark is a prestigious club that companies such as&nbsp;Facebook (FB),PepsiCo (PEP),Procter &amp; Gamble (PG),Target (TGT), and&nbsp;Johnson &amp; Johnson (JNJ)&nbsp;are not part of. BABA, on the other hand, witnessed its revenue increase by 52.11% and smash through $100 billion as they generated $109.47 billion in their recent fiscal year. For the year ending March 2019, BABA's revenue increased by $16.25 billion (40.74%) to $56.15 billion, then for the March 2020 fiscal year, revenue increased another $15.82 billion (28.17%) to $71.97 billion. BABA is in the same boat as Alphabet(NASDAQ:GOOG)(GOOGL), FB, and Amazon (AMZN) as they watched the pandemic push more people to go digital which accelerated their businesses. For BABA, the forced transition to digital helped them achieve $37.5 billion (52.11%) in additional revenue as they finished their March 2021 fiscal year with $109.47 billion in revenue.</p>\n<p>Since 2013 BABA has not had a year where their annual revenue increase didn't exceed 25% Year over Year (YoY). When you think about that as a growth rate, it's remarkable for a company of BABA's size as this isn't a company chasing its first billion-dollar revenue year. Over the past 5 fiscal years, BABA's annual revenue has increased by $93.8 billion (408.08%) at an average annual rate of 48.25%. Smaller companies considered growth companies would be jealous of these rates, while many large caps are probably envious.</p>\n<p>BABA isn't a one-trick pony that can only generate tens of billions in revenue. BABA can convert right down to the bottom line. Each year BABA has increased its YoY gross profit by a minimum of 10% since 2013. In 2016 BABA generated $10.35 billion in gross profit and, over the next 5 fiscal years, increased its annual gross profit by $34.84 billion (336.68%). BABA has also never fallen below a 40% gross profit margin, Warren Buffett's magic number, as he indicates in<i>Warren Buffett and the Interpretation of Financial Statements. On page 34 of the Kindle edition,it says:</i></p>\n<blockquote>\n As a very general rule (and there are exceptions): Companies with gross profit margins of 40% or better tend to be companies with some sort of durable competitive advantage. Companies with gross profit margins below 40% tend to be companies in highly competitive industries, where competition is hurting overall profit margins (there are exceptions here, too).\n</blockquote>\n<p>The gross profit margin is important for investors to evaluate because it reveals how much of a company's revenue goes directly to producing it and if they have a moat around their business. BABA's numbers indicate they have a sufficient moat around their business that is hard to penetrate. With close to a decade of generating over 40% in gross profit margins, investors can expect that BABA's moat will protect its business operations for years to come.</p>\n<p>Moving to the bottom line BABA does a great job at generating profits. In their most recent fiscal year, BABA generated $22.98 billion in net income, converting more than 1/5th (20.99%) of their revenue to pure profits. Since 2013 BABA has only had 1 year where net income decreases YoY. With that track record, many options open up for BABA in the future as their cash stockpile continues to increase.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/41a5e036f023fa4ced7666e06aa1de6b\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"444\"><span>(Source: Alibaba)</span></p>\n<p><b>Alibaba will continue to experience tailwinds as China's population and economy expands</b></p>\n<p>Alibaba&nbsp;achieved one billion annual active consumers globally in the fiscal year that ended in March 2021. BABA has 891 million consumers across China's retail marketplace, local consumer services and digital media and entertainment platforms, and approximately 240 million consumers outside China. BABA's annual active consumers in the China retail marketplaces were 811 million as it grew by 85 million YoY. BABA will focus on developing a digital commerce infrastructure that offers an upgraded consumer experience by seamlessly integrating online and offline. Through BABA's infrastructure, countless retailers have digitally transformed their businesses and created multiple retail formats that have enabled new consumption experiences by leveraging consumer insights and technology. BABA's ecosystem, supply chain, and diversified fulfillment services have facilitated an immense digital transformation. By investing in its infrastructure, BABA's customers can now leverage a full range of high-frequency fulfillment services that include on-demand delivery, same-or-next day delivery, and next-day pick-up services for a full range of consumable and physical products.</p>\n<p>BABA will continue to be one of the cornerstones that supports growth within China's economy, which is benefiting from the acceleration of digitalization in all aspects of life and work. China is projected to be the world's largest economy by 2028. The per-capita income in China is expected to grow by roughly 50% from 2020 to 2025.China's average economic growth&nbsp;has been projected to increase at a rate of 5.7% from 2021 to 2025, then slow to 4.5% from 2026 to 2030. As a result,China&nbsp;is on track to join the top 1/3rd of nations and overtake 56 countries in the per capita income rankings by 2025. By the end of 2022, McKinsey&nbsp;predicts&nbsp;that the middle class could expand to 550 million people which is larger than the entire U.S population.</p>\n<p>If the projections for China are correct, this should mean a windfall of cash lining BABA's coffers. It's a simple recipe; when people make more money, they tend to spend more money to enhance their lives and increase their standard of living. As BABA is a dominant force in China's retail sector, they stand to benefit from a growing economy and a larger middle class. At the end of next year, if China has anywhere close to 550 million individuals in the middle class, I believe BABA's revenue and profits will increase significantly. This trend can provide tailwinds throughout the decade for BABA, and eventually, the market will reward shareholders based on BABA's value proposition.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bbde4a092d19118a2d16daabf5c027d7\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"463\"><span>(Source: Blomberg)</span></p>\n<p><b>Alibaba has tremendous growth prospects in Cloud as China continues its digitization</b></p>\n<p>Cloud computing has been red hot in the U.S. as the transition from on-prem to cloud has increased the technological capabilities for many organizations. As digitization progresses across the business landscape, cloud providers continue to increase revenue generated from their cloud segments within their overall revenue mix. For example, AWS, the cloud computing division from&nbsp;AMZN, generated $45.37 billion in 2020. Cloud continues to be an exciting sector because the digital transformation is far from being over. Hence, the prospects of new customers are enormous while reoccurring revenue is generated after the transition occurs.</p>\n<p>In China, cloud infrastructure services are still in the early innings as the entire spend was around $15 billion in 2020. In Q1 of 2021, cloud infrastructure services in&nbsp;China&nbsp;grew by 55% YoY as it reached $6 billion. China was the 2nd largest market behind the U.S, accounting for 14% of global investment, up from 12% in Q1 of 2020. With cloud spending and digitization in China increasing, this serves as a major runway for growth in Alibaba Cloud.</p>\n<p>As China's economy expands, businesses will need to become more efficient to support both operations and customer demands. Chinese companies will need to implement infrastructure that can support a digital age of the workforce while supporting cloud services used by consumers for consumption. If China passes the U.S. as the world's largest economy in the second half of this decade, the amount of growth needed in cloud services will be immense. BABA is already the leader in cloud infrastructure services in China as their 39.8% market share accounted for $2.39 billion of the $6 billion spent in Q1 2021. Over the previous 6 quarters, cloud infrastructure spending has increased by roughly $2.3 billion (76.67%) in China. Based on cloud's current trajectory, quarterly revenue is on track to double over the next 2 years, putting Q1 2023 revenue at $10.6 billion. If BABA has a 35% market share, their Q1 2023 would be $3.71 billion, placing their 2023 revenue for cloud at $14.84 billion without factoring in any growth in 2023. From a cloud aspect, China's future spending is very exciting, and BABA will be one of the major benefactors.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1759b81ce463d503a165d901e2e50d7c\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"728\"><span>(Source: Canalys)</span></p>\n<p><b>Alibaba has stellar financial metrics and is undervalued compared to the U.S. tech conglomerates</b></p>\n<p>For this comparison, I am going to use AMZN and GOOGL as they have been establishing their dominance in the U.S. for more than a decade. First, here are the raw numbers for AMZN, BABA, and GOOGL:</p>\n<ul>\n <li>AMZN</li>\n <li>BABA</li>\n <li>GOOGL</li>\n</ul>\n<p>The market currently places a multiple of 17.03x on AMZN's equity compared to its market cap, while its revenue multiple is 4.2x. GOOGL has a multiple of 7.17x on its equity and 8.39x on its revenue compared to market cap. AMZN and GOOGL's market caps exceed $1.5 trillion, while BABA's sits at $575.57 billion. The market is placing a 3.5x multiple on BABA's equity and 5.26x on its revenue compared to the market cap. Thus, the market is severely discounting BABA's equity and revenue generation. BABA's equity is worth 28.58% of its market cap, while AMZN's equity is equivalent to 5.87%, and GOOGL's is 13.94% of its market cap. The current discount placed on BABA's equity could create an additional tailwind for shareholders in the future.</p>\n<p><b>Conclusion</b></p>\n<p>It's hard to dismiss the growth opportunities some companies in China are presenting, especially after the recent decline in share prices. However, I believe shares of BABA are currently undervalued based on their current financial metrics and growth rates. China's economy and the amount of capital allocated to cloud service infrastructure are expected to grow substantially over the years. These will create powerful tailwinds for BABA throughout this decade. As a result, I think shareholders have been allowed to establish a BABA or dollar cost average position at a discounted price. I plan on continuing to add shares to my position while the market is discounting BABA.</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Alibaba: Can BABA Get Back To $300? Yes, It Can</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nAlibaba: Can BABA Get Back To $300? Yes, It Can\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-06-26 09:42 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4436373-alibaba-can-get-back-to-300><strong>seekingalpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Summary\n\nThe recent downturn in Alibaba's share price has created an investment opportunity for long-term capital appreciation.\nThe Chinese economy is expected to become the world's largest economy by...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4436373-alibaba-can-get-back-to-300\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"BABA":"阿里巴巴"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4436373-alibaba-can-get-back-to-300","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1164137597","content_text":"Summary\n\nThe recent downturn in Alibaba's share price has created an investment opportunity for long-term capital appreciation.\nThe Chinese economy is expected to become the world's largest economy by 2028 and more than 500 million people will be part of the middle class by end of 2023.\nAlibaba will experience tailwinds from individuals and businesses spending more money during this period of growth in China.\nAlibaba is the dominant force in cloud services in China which could become a significant revenue growth machine as the economy expands.\n\nAndrew Braun/iStock Editorial via Getty Images\nAlibaba(NYSE:BABA)operates a printing press that keeps spitting out tens of billions from total revenue down to net income. Many companies faced adversity throughout the pandemic, and some are still recovering, but not BABA. Through the worst economic environment for businesses to navigate in recent times, BABA generated over $100 billion in revenue and $20 billion in net income during their recent fiscal year. While BABA didn't get the memo about businesses facing challenges amidst the pandemic, the market must not have read BABA's earnings report or crunched the numbers.\nThere are two Chinese companies I am bullish on, and BABA is my biggest conviction for appreciation. BABA smashed through the $300 share price level at the end of October 2020, but shareholders have been left confused and disappointed since then. It looked like BABA would turn the corner after a horrible end to 2020 as shares appreciated from $222.36 from the close of 2020 to $270.83 in the middle of February 2021. Still, the markets had other plans, and all shares of BABA have done is disappoint shareholders. If you missed the BABA train, it's time to grab your tickets and climb aboard, and if you purchased BABA during its run to $300 or early 2021 rebound, it might be time to add to your holdings. BABA is going to experience tremendous tailwinds from China's population and economic growth over the next several years, and their printing press is going to need more ink.\n(Source: Alibaba)\nThe Alibaba printing press is open for business, and it spits out billions\nHow many companies can say their annual revenue through the pandemic exceeded $100 billion? The $100 billion revenue mark is a prestigious club that companies such as Facebook (FB),PepsiCo (PEP),Procter & Gamble (PG),Target (TGT), and Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) are not part of. BABA, on the other hand, witnessed its revenue increase by 52.11% and smash through $100 billion as they generated $109.47 billion in their recent fiscal year. For the year ending March 2019, BABA's revenue increased by $16.25 billion (40.74%) to $56.15 billion, then for the March 2020 fiscal year, revenue increased another $15.82 billion (28.17%) to $71.97 billion. BABA is in the same boat as Alphabet(NASDAQ:GOOG)(GOOGL), FB, and Amazon (AMZN) as they watched the pandemic push more people to go digital which accelerated their businesses. For BABA, the forced transition to digital helped them achieve $37.5 billion (52.11%) in additional revenue as they finished their March 2021 fiscal year with $109.47 billion in revenue.\nSince 2013 BABA has not had a year where their annual revenue increase didn't exceed 25% Year over Year (YoY). When you think about that as a growth rate, it's remarkable for a company of BABA's size as this isn't a company chasing its first billion-dollar revenue year. Over the past 5 fiscal years, BABA's annual revenue has increased by $93.8 billion (408.08%) at an average annual rate of 48.25%. Smaller companies considered growth companies would be jealous of these rates, while many large caps are probably envious.\nBABA isn't a one-trick pony that can only generate tens of billions in revenue. BABA can convert right down to the bottom line. Each year BABA has increased its YoY gross profit by a minimum of 10% since 2013. In 2016 BABA generated $10.35 billion in gross profit and, over the next 5 fiscal years, increased its annual gross profit by $34.84 billion (336.68%). BABA has also never fallen below a 40% gross profit margin, Warren Buffett's magic number, as he indicates inWarren Buffett and the Interpretation of Financial Statements. On page 34 of the Kindle edition,it says:\n\n As a very general rule (and there are exceptions): Companies with gross profit margins of 40% or better tend to be companies with some sort of durable competitive advantage. Companies with gross profit margins below 40% tend to be companies in highly competitive industries, where competition is hurting overall profit margins (there are exceptions here, too).\n\nThe gross profit margin is important for investors to evaluate because it reveals how much of a company's revenue goes directly to producing it and if they have a moat around their business. BABA's numbers indicate they have a sufficient moat around their business that is hard to penetrate. With close to a decade of generating over 40% in gross profit margins, investors can expect that BABA's moat will protect its business operations for years to come.\nMoving to the bottom line BABA does a great job at generating profits. In their most recent fiscal year, BABA generated $22.98 billion in net income, converting more than 1/5th (20.99%) of their revenue to pure profits. Since 2013 BABA has only had 1 year where net income decreases YoY. With that track record, many options open up for BABA in the future as their cash stockpile continues to increase.\n(Source: Alibaba)\nAlibaba will continue to experience tailwinds as China's population and economy expands\nAlibaba achieved one billion annual active consumers globally in the fiscal year that ended in March 2021. BABA has 891 million consumers across China's retail marketplace, local consumer services and digital media and entertainment platforms, and approximately 240 million consumers outside China. BABA's annual active consumers in the China retail marketplaces were 811 million as it grew by 85 million YoY. BABA will focus on developing a digital commerce infrastructure that offers an upgraded consumer experience by seamlessly integrating online and offline. Through BABA's infrastructure, countless retailers have digitally transformed their businesses and created multiple retail formats that have enabled new consumption experiences by leveraging consumer insights and technology. BABA's ecosystem, supply chain, and diversified fulfillment services have facilitated an immense digital transformation. By investing in its infrastructure, BABA's customers can now leverage a full range of high-frequency fulfillment services that include on-demand delivery, same-or-next day delivery, and next-day pick-up services for a full range of consumable and physical products.\nBABA will continue to be one of the cornerstones that supports growth within China's economy, which is benefiting from the acceleration of digitalization in all aspects of life and work. China is projected to be the world's largest economy by 2028. The per-capita income in China is expected to grow by roughly 50% from 2020 to 2025.China's average economic growth has been projected to increase at a rate of 5.7% from 2021 to 2025, then slow to 4.5% from 2026 to 2030. As a result,China is on track to join the top 1/3rd of nations and overtake 56 countries in the per capita income rankings by 2025. By the end of 2022, McKinsey predicts that the middle class could expand to 550 million people which is larger than the entire U.S population.\nIf the projections for China are correct, this should mean a windfall of cash lining BABA's coffers. It's a simple recipe; when people make more money, they tend to spend more money to enhance their lives and increase their standard of living. As BABA is a dominant force in China's retail sector, they stand to benefit from a growing economy and a larger middle class. At the end of next year, if China has anywhere close to 550 million individuals in the middle class, I believe BABA's revenue and profits will increase significantly. This trend can provide tailwinds throughout the decade for BABA, and eventually, the market will reward shareholders based on BABA's value proposition.\n(Source: Blomberg)\nAlibaba has tremendous growth prospects in Cloud as China continues its digitization\nCloud computing has been red hot in the U.S. as the transition from on-prem to cloud has increased the technological capabilities for many organizations. As digitization progresses across the business landscape, cloud providers continue to increase revenue generated from their cloud segments within their overall revenue mix. For example, AWS, the cloud computing division from AMZN, generated $45.37 billion in 2020. Cloud continues to be an exciting sector because the digital transformation is far from being over. Hence, the prospects of new customers are enormous while reoccurring revenue is generated after the transition occurs.\nIn China, cloud infrastructure services are still in the early innings as the entire spend was around $15 billion in 2020. In Q1 of 2021, cloud infrastructure services in China grew by 55% YoY as it reached $6 billion. China was the 2nd largest market behind the U.S, accounting for 14% of global investment, up from 12% in Q1 of 2020. With cloud spending and digitization in China increasing, this serves as a major runway for growth in Alibaba Cloud.\nAs China's economy expands, businesses will need to become more efficient to support both operations and customer demands. Chinese companies will need to implement infrastructure that can support a digital age of the workforce while supporting cloud services used by consumers for consumption. If China passes the U.S. as the world's largest economy in the second half of this decade, the amount of growth needed in cloud services will be immense. BABA is already the leader in cloud infrastructure services in China as their 39.8% market share accounted for $2.39 billion of the $6 billion spent in Q1 2021. Over the previous 6 quarters, cloud infrastructure spending has increased by roughly $2.3 billion (76.67%) in China. Based on cloud's current trajectory, quarterly revenue is on track to double over the next 2 years, putting Q1 2023 revenue at $10.6 billion. If BABA has a 35% market share, their Q1 2023 would be $3.71 billion, placing their 2023 revenue for cloud at $14.84 billion without factoring in any growth in 2023. From a cloud aspect, China's future spending is very exciting, and BABA will be one of the major benefactors.\n(Source: Canalys)\nAlibaba has stellar financial metrics and is undervalued compared to the U.S. tech conglomerates\nFor this comparison, I am going to use AMZN and GOOGL as they have been establishing their dominance in the U.S. for more than a decade. First, here are the raw numbers for AMZN, BABA, and GOOGL:\n\nAMZN\nBABA\nGOOGL\n\nThe market currently places a multiple of 17.03x on AMZN's equity compared to its market cap, while its revenue multiple is 4.2x. GOOGL has a multiple of 7.17x on its equity and 8.39x on its revenue compared to market cap. AMZN and GOOGL's market caps exceed $1.5 trillion, while BABA's sits at $575.57 billion. The market is placing a 3.5x multiple on BABA's equity and 5.26x on its revenue compared to the market cap. Thus, the market is severely discounting BABA's equity and revenue generation. BABA's equity is worth 28.58% of its market cap, while AMZN's equity is equivalent to 5.87%, and GOOGL's is 13.94% of its market cap. The current discount placed on BABA's equity could create an additional tailwind for shareholders in the future.\nConclusion\nIt's hard to dismiss the growth opportunities some companies in China are presenting, especially after the recent decline in share prices. However, I believe shares of BABA are currently undervalued based on their current financial metrics and growth rates. China's economy and the amount of capital allocated to cloud service infrastructure are expected to grow substantially over the years. These will create powerful tailwinds for BABA throughout this decade. As a result, I think shareholders have been allowed to establish a BABA or dollar cost average position at a discounted price. I plan on continuing to add shares to my position while the market is discounting BABA.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":244,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":167307556,"gmtCreate":1624245529375,"gmtModify":1634008952469,"author":{"id":"3573119962682037","authorId":"3573119962682037","name":"FreedomKim","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4300b07a250f193db050a2a7c7e36dfd","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3573119962682037","idStr":"3573119962682037"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"护城河涨价能力没那么强","listText":"护城河涨价能力没那么强","text":"护城河涨价能力没那么强","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/167307556","repostId":"2145027197","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2145027197","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1624235792,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2145027197?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-21 08:36","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"海底捞市值四个月蒸发超2400亿港元 掌门人张勇痛失“新加坡首富”之位","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2145027197","media":"新浪财经综合","summary":"截至6月18日港股收盘，海底捞报39.5港元，总市值2094亿。相对于今年2月15日，海底捞股价涨至85.8港元，总市值超过4500亿港元，短短四个月，市值蒸发超2400亿港元。但近几个月，海底捞股价暴跌不止，张勇也失去了“新加坡首富”之位。海底捞表示，受疫情防控影响，海底捞从2020年1月26日起暂停中国大陆地区所有门店的营业，于3月12日逐步重新开放门店。疫情期间海底捞持续推进开店计划，业务扩张导致成本大增。","content":"<html><body><article><p>原标题：<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/06862\">海底捞</a>市值四个月蒸发超2400亿港元 掌门人张勇痛失“新加坡首富”之位</p><p>长江商报消息●长江商报记者 曾思嶒</p><p>海底捞（06862.HK）曾凭借其“无微不至”的服务走红，并迅速成为“火锅第一股”，但近四个月其股价暴跌，掌门人张勇也失去“新加坡首富”之位。</p><p>张勇曾将海底捞定位于大众品牌，并提倡越便宜越好。“高端餐饮不赚钱，有些品牌做得很精致，花了很多钱，请了很多明星，都知道它很高级，但真正赚钱的，比如<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SBUX\">星巴克</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MCD\">麦当劳</a>，其实就是大众品牌的东西。”</p><p>而实际上，外界普遍观点是，让海底捞名声大噪的，不是性价比，而是服务。但张勇却不这么认为，他认为海底捞之所以强大、所向披靡，核心竞争力是他独创的、能激发员工创意、热情、积极性的一套人力资源体系，这是海底捞自己摸索尝试出来的，也是餐饮行业所独有的。</p><p>但这种商业逻辑也有弊端，在口味方面，海底捞越来越多的评价集中在“味道一般”、“不难吃”等等，基本上丧失了餐饮行业最核心的竞争力。截至6月18日港股收盘，海底捞报39.5港元，<span>总市值</span>2094亿。相对于今年2月15日，海底捞股价涨至85.8港元，总市值超过4500亿港元，短短四个月，市值蒸发超2400亿港元。</p><p>靠服务杀出重围</p><p>四川从来不缺美食，海底捞的成功绝非偶然。</p><p>作为一个底层出生的“川娃子”，张勇早些年曾在拖拉机厂打工，后来走南闯北寻找商机，开了火锅店。对于商业，张勇有自己独特的见解。</p><p>张勇把宝押在了“服务”上，海底捞在业内广为流传的服务包括帮人带孩子、拎包、擦鞋，客人的所有需求都一一满足。客人抱怨喝酒伤了胃，就熬一锅小米粥。客人夸奖辣椒酱好吃，就送客人几罐。在当时，很多饭店还没有树立起“服务意识”，因此，海底捞给顾客们留下了非常深刻的印象。逐渐地，凭借周到服务带来的好口碑，海底捞的名气越来越大，不愁没有顾客上门。</p><p>除了对顾客贴心服务以外，发展壮大后的海底捞，对自家员工也关怀到位。张勇提倡让员工们感受到“家”的感觉，让员工拥有“归属感”。在生活方面，海底捞员工宿舍配套齐全，在薪资方面，张勇引入一套人性化的KPI管理体系。在试点门店，员工每传一个菜，就能拿到一个小圆塑料片，计一件收入，这样每接到一个顾客，员工就有提成。在同行业里，海底捞员工薪酬高于同行业10%，离职率维持在在10%以下。</p><p>张勇曾如此概括海底捞的核心价值观——“双手改变命运”。“餐饮是一个完全竞争的行业，消费者体验至关重要。顾客满意度是由员工来保证和实现的。所以，我们确立了‘双手改变命运’的核心理念来凝聚员工。想借此传达的是，只要我们遵循勤奋、敬业、诚信的信条，我们的双手是可以改变一些东西的。员工接受这个理念，就是认可我们的企业，就会发自内心地对顾客付出。”</p><p>在大部分火锅店还在经历开店关店的经营阵痛期时，海底捞靠服务制胜，开店红遍大江南北，甚至把火锅店开到国外，如新加坡、美国等。</p><p>弄丢“新加坡首富”之位</p><p>2018年海底捞在港股上市，张勇的身价也随之水涨船高。当年10月，张勇、舒萍两位新加坡籍夫妇以550亿元人民币的财富位居2018年胡润百富榜第34位。2019年8月29日，《福布斯亚洲》杂志发布最新的新加坡50大富豪榜，张勇以138亿（约192亿新元）美元净资产登上榜首，成新加坡新首富。</p><p>但近几个月，海底捞股价暴跌不止，张勇也失去了“新加坡首富”之位。</p><p>对于股价下跌的原因，海底捞将其归结为疫情影响。今年3月，海底捞发布的2020年财报显示，2020年公司<span>净利润</span>为3.09亿元，同比2019年下降86.8%，营收286.14亿，同比仅增长7.75%，而相比2015年-2019年，海底捞营收复合增长率达到46.55%，增速明显放缓。</p><p>海底捞表示，受疫情防控影响，海底捞从2020年1月26日起暂停中国大陆地区所有门店的营业，于3月12日逐步重新开放门店。2020年上半年因疫情亏损9.65亿元。</p><p>市场普遍认为，疫情影响是主要原因，但也暴露出海底捞对市场环境反应不足，甚至是管理体制上的短板。在去年疫情爆发后，海底捞被网友吐槽：店里菜品价钱比以前高很多，一部分菜品上涨5%，有的甚至超过了28%。除了“暗中”涨价，屡次曝光的食品质量问题，也让海底捞的形象大打折扣。</p><p>在张勇的规划里，赚大众门店的钱，意味着需要不断扩张开更多的门店。疫情期间海底捞持续推进开店计划，业务扩张导致成本大增。原材料及易耗品从2019年的112.39亿元增至2020年122.62亿元，增长9.1%；员工成本从79.92亿元增至96.77亿元，增长21.1%；折旧及摊销从18.913亿元上升至30.34亿元，增幅达60.4%；财务成本从2.37亿元上升至4.46亿元，增幅达88.2%。</p><p>此外，其物业、厂房和设备——也就是各类<span>非流动资产</span>快速增加，从2019年的76.9亿元涨至2020年的120.64亿元。</p><p>如今，川味火锅、重庆火锅、铜锅涮肉、潮汕牛肉锅、鱼火锅等赛道越分越细，越来越多的新火锅品牌在市场上崛起，巴奴、德庄、蜀大侠等火锅品牌以差异化特色受到欢迎。与之相对应的，海底捞龙头地位受到威胁，标准化服务模式受到抨击，“过度化”服务是否还会被当代年轻人买单？市场后续会给出答案。</p></article></body></html>","source":"tencent","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE 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class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-06-21 08:36 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN2021062108363779c89426&s=b><strong>新浪财经综合</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>原标题：海底捞市值四个月蒸发超2400亿港元 掌门人张勇痛失“新加坡首富”之位长江商报消息●长江商报记者 曾思嶒海底捞（06862.HK）曾凭借其“无微不至”的服务走红，并迅速成为“火锅第一股”，但近四个月其股价暴跌，掌门人张勇也失去“新加坡首富”之位。张勇曾将海底捞定位于大众品牌，并提倡越便宜越好。“高端餐饮不赚钱，有些品牌做得很精致，花了很多钱，请了很多明星，都知道它很高级，但真正赚钱的，比如...</p>\n\n<a href=\"http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN2021062108363779c89426&s=b\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4e3dd8956fa22cf4293bef1416fad3d1","relate_stocks":{"06862":"海底捞","09988":"阿里巴巴-W"},"source_url":"http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN2021062108363779c89426&s=b","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/9a95c1376e76363c1401fee7d3717173","article_id":"2145027197","content_text":"原标题：海底捞市值四个月蒸发超2400亿港元 掌门人张勇痛失“新加坡首富”之位长江商报消息●长江商报记者 曾思嶒海底捞（06862.HK）曾凭借其“无微不至”的服务走红，并迅速成为“火锅第一股”，但近四个月其股价暴跌，掌门人张勇也失去“新加坡首富”之位。张勇曾将海底捞定位于大众品牌，并提倡越便宜越好。“高端餐饮不赚钱，有些品牌做得很精致，花了很多钱，请了很多明星，都知道它很高级，但真正赚钱的，比如星巴克、麦当劳，其实就是大众品牌的东西。”而实际上，外界普遍观点是，让海底捞名声大噪的，不是性价比，而是服务。但张勇却不这么认为，他认为海底捞之所以强大、所向披靡，核心竞争力是他独创的、能激发员工创意、热情、积极性的一套人力资源体系，这是海底捞自己摸索尝试出来的，也是餐饮行业所独有的。但这种商业逻辑也有弊端，在口味方面，海底捞越来越多的评价集中在“味道一般”、“不难吃”等等，基本上丧失了餐饮行业最核心的竞争力。截至6月18日港股收盘，海底捞报39.5港元，总市值2094亿。相对于今年2月15日，海底捞股价涨至85.8港元，总市值超过4500亿港元，短短四个月，市值蒸发超2400亿港元。靠服务杀出重围四川从来不缺美食，海底捞的成功绝非偶然。作为一个底层出生的“川娃子”，张勇早些年曾在拖拉机厂打工，后来走南闯北寻找商机，开了火锅店。对于商业，张勇有自己独特的见解。张勇把宝押在了“服务”上，海底捞在业内广为流传的服务包括帮人带孩子、拎包、擦鞋，客人的所有需求都一一满足。客人抱怨喝酒伤了胃，就熬一锅小米粥。客人夸奖辣椒酱好吃，就送客人几罐。在当时，很多饭店还没有树立起“服务意识”，因此，海底捞给顾客们留下了非常深刻的印象。逐渐地，凭借周到服务带来的好口碑，海底捞的名气越来越大，不愁没有顾客上门。除了对顾客贴心服务以外，发展壮大后的海底捞，对自家员工也关怀到位。张勇提倡让员工们感受到“家”的感觉，让员工拥有“归属感”。在生活方面，海底捞员工宿舍配套齐全，在薪资方面，张勇引入一套人性化的KPI管理体系。在试点门店，员工每传一个菜，就能拿到一个小圆塑料片，计一件收入，这样每接到一个顾客，员工就有提成。在同行业里，海底捞员工薪酬高于同行业10%，离职率维持在在10%以下。张勇曾如此概括海底捞的核心价值观——“双手改变命运”。“餐饮是一个完全竞争的行业，消费者体验至关重要。顾客满意度是由员工来保证和实现的。所以，我们确立了‘双手改变命运’的核心理念来凝聚员工。想借此传达的是，只要我们遵循勤奋、敬业、诚信的信条，我们的双手是可以改变一些东西的。员工接受这个理念，就是认可我们的企业，就会发自内心地对顾客付出。”在大部分火锅店还在经历开店关店的经营阵痛期时，海底捞靠服务制胜，开店红遍大江南北，甚至把火锅店开到国外，如新加坡、美国等。弄丢“新加坡首富”之位2018年海底捞在港股上市，张勇的身价也随之水涨船高。当年10月，张勇、舒萍两位新加坡籍夫妇以550亿元人民币的财富位居2018年胡润百富榜第34位。2019年8月29日，《福布斯亚洲》杂志发布最新的新加坡50大富豪榜，张勇以138亿（约192亿新元）美元净资产登上榜首，成新加坡新首富。但近几个月，海底捞股价暴跌不止，张勇也失去了“新加坡首富”之位。对于股价下跌的原因，海底捞将其归结为疫情影响。今年3月，海底捞发布的2020年财报显示，2020年公司净利润为3.09亿元，同比2019年下降86.8%，营收286.14亿，同比仅增长7.75%，而相比2015年-2019年，海底捞营收复合增长率达到46.55%，增速明显放缓。海底捞表示，受疫情防控影响，海底捞从2020年1月26日起暂停中国大陆地区所有门店的营业，于3月12日逐步重新开放门店。2020年上半年因疫情亏损9.65亿元。市场普遍认为，疫情影响是主要原因，但也暴露出海底捞对市场环境反应不足，甚至是管理体制上的短板。在去年疫情爆发后，海底捞被网友吐槽：店里菜品价钱比以前高很多，一部分菜品上涨5%，有的甚至超过了28%。除了“暗中”涨价，屡次曝光的食品质量问题，也让海底捞的形象大打折扣。在张勇的规划里，赚大众门店的钱，意味着需要不断扩张开更多的门店。疫情期间海底捞持续推进开店计划，业务扩张导致成本大增。原材料及易耗品从2019年的112.39亿元增至2020年122.62亿元，增长9.1%；员工成本从79.92亿元增至96.77亿元，增长21.1%；折旧及摊销从18.913亿元上升至30.34亿元，增幅达60.4%；财务成本从2.37亿元上升至4.46亿元，增幅达88.2%。此外，其物业、厂房和设备——也就是各类非流动资产快速增加，从2019年的76.9亿元涨至2020年的120.64亿元。如今，川味火锅、重庆火锅、铜锅涮肉、潮汕牛肉锅、鱼火锅等赛道越分越细，越来越多的新火锅品牌在市场上崛起，巴奴、德庄、蜀大侠等火锅品牌以差异化特色受到欢迎。与之相对应的，海底捞龙头地位受到威胁，标准化服务模式受到抨击，“过度化”服务是否还会被当代年轻人买单？市场后续会给出答案。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":593,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":164132519,"gmtCreate":1624178867531,"gmtModify":1634009740876,"author":{"id":"3573119962682037","authorId":"3573119962682037","name":"FreedomKim","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4300b07a250f193db050a2a7c7e36dfd","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3573119962682037","idStr":"3573119962682037"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Be the lemming with life jacket","listText":"Be the lemming with life jacket","text":"Be the lemming with life jacket","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/164132519","repostId":"1126454279","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1126454279","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1624151746,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1126454279?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-20 09:15","market":"us","language":"en","title":"A Stock Market Crash Is Coming: 5 High-Conviction Stocks to Buy Hand Over Fist When It Happens","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1126454279","media":"fool","summary":"It might be the last thing you want to hear, but it's the truth:A stock market crash is inevitable.\n","content":"<p>It might be the last thing you want to hear, but it's the truth:A stock market crash is inevitable.</p>\n<p>Since the March 23, 2020 bottom, investors have enjoyed a historically strong bounce-back rally -- the widely followed<b>S&amp;P 500</b>(SNPINDEX:^GSPC)has gained an impressive 90%. But both history and valuation metrics unequivocally suggest that a big drop is upcoming for the stock market.</p>\n<p><b>History is pretty clear that trouble lies ahead</b></p>\n<p>For example, there have beenone or two double-digit percentage declineswithin the three years following a bottom in each of the previous eight bear markets prior to the coronavirus crash (i.e., dating back to 1960). Although bull markets tend to last years, rebounds from a bear market are never this smooth. We're nearly 15 months past the March 2020 bear-market bottom in the S&amp;P 500 and have yet to see anything close to a double-digit correction.</p>\n<p>To add to this point, data from market analytics firm Yardeni Research shows that there have been 38 double-digit declines in the S&amp;P 500 over the past 71 years. That's a crash or correction, on average,every 1.87 years. Though the market doesn't adhere to averages, it does give a general sense of when to expect these hiccups.</p>\n<p>On a valuation basis, the S&amp;P 500's Shiller price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is a waving red flag. The S&amp;P 500's Shiller P/E -- a measure of inflation-adjusted earnings over the previous 10 years -- almost hit 38 earlier this week. That more than doubles its 151-year average, and it's the highest level in nearly two decades. The previous four times the Shiller P/E surpassed and held above 30 during a bull market rally, the indexsubsequently declined by a minimum of 20%.</p>\n<p>Make no mistake about it -- a stock market crash is coming.</p>\n<p>Every crash or correction is an opportunity for patient investors to make money</p>\n<p>However, a crash is no reason to duck and cover. While history may signal trouble ahead, it also tells us that each and every double-digit decline has been a buying opportunity. Eventually, every big drop in the major indexes is erased by a bull-market rally. When the next crash does occur, the following five high-conviction stocks can be confidently bought hand over fist.</p>\n<p><b>CrowdStrike Holdings</b></p>\n<p>Cybersecurity is projected to beone of the safest double-digit growth trendsthis decade. No matter the size of the business or the state of the U.S./global economy, protecting enterprise and consumer data is paramount. This means cloud-based cybersecurity stock<b>CrowdStrike Holdings</b>(NASDAQ:CRWD)can thrive in any environment.</p>\n<p>CrowdStrike's successderives from its cloud-native Falcon security platform. Because it's built in the cloud and relies on artificial intelligence, it's growing smarter at identifying and responding to threats all the time. It's currently overseeing 6 trillion events on a weekly basis, and it's far more cost-effective at protecting data than on-premise solutions.</p>\n<p>We can also look to the company's income statements to see clear-cut evidence that businesses favor CrowdStrike's cybersecurity platform. It's been retaining 98% of its clients, has seen existing clients spend 23% to 47% more on a year-over-year basis for the past 12 quarters, and recently reported that 64% of its customers have purchased at least four cloud module subscriptions. Scaling with its customers is CrowdStrike's ticket to big-time cash flow expansion.</p>\n<p><b>Facebook</b></p>\n<p>Brand-name businesses can make patient investors a fortune, and social media giant<b>Facebook</b>(NASDAQ:FB)is the perfect example.</p>\n<p>When the curtain closed on March, Facebook tallied 2.85 billion monthly active users (MAU) visiting its namesake site and an additional 600 million unique MAUs visiting WhatsApp or Instagram, which it also owns. All told, this equates to44% of the global populationinteracting with its owned sites each month. There's simply no social media platform businesses can go to get their message to a broader (or potentially targeted) audience, which is why Facebook ad-pricing power is so strong.</p>\n<p>But here's the kicker: Facebookhasn't even put the pedal to the metal. Although it's on track to generate more than $100 billion in advertising revenue in 2021, nearly all of these ad sales are coming from its namesake site and Instagram. WhatsApp and Facebook Messenger, which are two of the six most-visited social sites in the world, aren't being meaningfully monetized as of yet. Further, the company's Oculus virtual reality devices are still in the early stage of their growth. Suffice it to say, Facebook offers ample upside as its other operating segments are monetized and mature.</p>\n<p><b>NextEra Energy</b></p>\n<p>Another high-conviction stock to buy hand over fist the next time a crash or steep correction strikes is electric utility stock<b>NextEra Energy</b>(NYSE:NEE).</p>\n<p>Did I put you to sleep when I said \"electric utility stock?\" Electric utilities are traditionally known for their market-topping dividend yields and persistently low growth rates. But this doesn't describe NextEra Energy. NextEra has aggressively invested in renewable energy projects and is leading the country in solar and wind capacity. As a result of these investments, its electric generation costs have declined and its compound annual growth ratehas consistently been in the high single digitsfor more than a decade. It also doesn't hurt that NextEra is front-running any potential green-energy legislation that might come out of Washington.</p>\n<p>In addition to growth rates that are well above the sector average, NextEra still benefits from the predictability of energy demand. For instance, its regulated utilities (i.e., those not powered by renewable energy) require approval from state utility commissions before price hikes can be passed along to households. This might sound like an inconvenience, but it's actually great news. It means NextEra won't be exposed to potentially volatile wholesale pricing.</p>\n<p><b>Visa</b></p>\n<p>When the next stock market crash arrives, payment processing kingpin<b>Visa</b>(NYSE:V)is a winning company to confidently buy hand over fist. It's also another brand-name company thatcan still make its shareholders a fortune.</p>\n<p>Buying into the Visa growth story is a simple numbers game. Visa grows its revenue and profits when consumers and businesses are spending more. This happens when the U.S. and global economy are expanding. Although contractions and recessions are an inevitable part of the economic cycle, they tend to be short-lived. Meanwhile, periods of economic expansion are almost always measured in years. Buying into Visa during these short-lived crashes or corrections should allow long-term investors to be handsomely rewarded by this numbers game.</p>\n<p>The other interesting thing about Visa is thatit's shunned becoming a lender. You'd think that Visa could generate big bucks from interest income and fees by lending during these long-lived periods of expansion. But lending would also expose Visa to the credit delinquencies that arise during recessions. Operating solely as a payment processor means not having to set aside cash to cover delinquencies. It's why Visa rebounds so much faster than most financial stocks following a recession.</p>\n<p><b>Amazon</b></p>\n<p>Lastly (andwho couldn't see this coming?), investors should take any discount they can get during a crash on e-commerce behemoth<b>Amazon</b>(NASDAQ:AMZN).</p>\n<p>Amazon's online marketplace has proved virtually unstoppable for well over a decade. An April 2021 report from eMarketer pegged the company's share of U.S. online sales at 40.4%. That more than quintuples its next-closest competitor and effectively solidifies Amazon as the go-to source for online shopping in the U.S.</p>\n<p>What about those pesky low retail margins, you ask? Amazon has signed up more than 200 million people globally to a Prime membership. The fees collected from Prime members help to offset some of the company's retail-based margin weakness. Prime members are extremely loyal to the Amazon ecosystem and spend far more than non-members, too.</p>\n<p>But it's Amazon's cloud infrastructure segmentthat's the superstar. Amazon Web Services (AWS) brings in around one-eighth of the company's total sales but accounts for well over half its operating income. Since cloud margins are superior to retail and advertising margins, AWS is the company's key to explosive cash flow growth this decade.</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>A Stock Market Crash Is Coming: 5 High-Conviction Stocks to Buy Hand Over Fist When It Happens</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nA Stock Market Crash Is Coming: 5 High-Conviction Stocks to Buy Hand Over Fist When It Happens\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-06-20 09:15 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/06/19/stock-market-crash-coming-5-high-conviction-stocks/><strong>fool</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>It might be the last thing you want to hear, but it's the truth:A stock market crash is inevitable.\nSince the March 23, 2020 bottom, investors have enjoyed a historically strong bounce-back rally -- ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/06/19/stock-market-crash-coming-5-high-conviction-stocks/\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"CRWD":"CrowdStrike Holdings, Inc.","NEP":"Nextera Energy Partners","V":"Visa","AMZN":"亚马逊"},"source_url":"https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/06/19/stock-market-crash-coming-5-high-conviction-stocks/","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1126454279","content_text":"It might be the last thing you want to hear, but it's the truth:A stock market crash is inevitable.\nSince the March 23, 2020 bottom, investors have enjoyed a historically strong bounce-back rally -- the widely followedS&P 500(SNPINDEX:^GSPC)has gained an impressive 90%. But both history and valuation metrics unequivocally suggest that a big drop is upcoming for the stock market.\nHistory is pretty clear that trouble lies ahead\nFor example, there have beenone or two double-digit percentage declineswithin the three years following a bottom in each of the previous eight bear markets prior to the coronavirus crash (i.e., dating back to 1960). Although bull markets tend to last years, rebounds from a bear market are never this smooth. We're nearly 15 months past the March 2020 bear-market bottom in the S&P 500 and have yet to see anything close to a double-digit correction.\nTo add to this point, data from market analytics firm Yardeni Research shows that there have been 38 double-digit declines in the S&P 500 over the past 71 years. That's a crash or correction, on average,every 1.87 years. Though the market doesn't adhere to averages, it does give a general sense of when to expect these hiccups.\nOn a valuation basis, the S&P 500's Shiller price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is a waving red flag. The S&P 500's Shiller P/E -- a measure of inflation-adjusted earnings over the previous 10 years -- almost hit 38 earlier this week. That more than doubles its 151-year average, and it's the highest level in nearly two decades. The previous four times the Shiller P/E surpassed and held above 30 during a bull market rally, the indexsubsequently declined by a minimum of 20%.\nMake no mistake about it -- a stock market crash is coming.\nEvery crash or correction is an opportunity for patient investors to make money\nHowever, a crash is no reason to duck and cover. While history may signal trouble ahead, it also tells us that each and every double-digit decline has been a buying opportunity. Eventually, every big drop in the major indexes is erased by a bull-market rally. When the next crash does occur, the following five high-conviction stocks can be confidently bought hand over fist.\nCrowdStrike Holdings\nCybersecurity is projected to beone of the safest double-digit growth trendsthis decade. No matter the size of the business or the state of the U.S./global economy, protecting enterprise and consumer data is paramount. This means cloud-based cybersecurity stockCrowdStrike Holdings(NASDAQ:CRWD)can thrive in any environment.\nCrowdStrike's successderives from its cloud-native Falcon security platform. Because it's built in the cloud and relies on artificial intelligence, it's growing smarter at identifying and responding to threats all the time. It's currently overseeing 6 trillion events on a weekly basis, and it's far more cost-effective at protecting data than on-premise solutions.\nWe can also look to the company's income statements to see clear-cut evidence that businesses favor CrowdStrike's cybersecurity platform. It's been retaining 98% of its clients, has seen existing clients spend 23% to 47% more on a year-over-year basis for the past 12 quarters, and recently reported that 64% of its customers have purchased at least four cloud module subscriptions. Scaling with its customers is CrowdStrike's ticket to big-time cash flow expansion.\nFacebook\nBrand-name businesses can make patient investors a fortune, and social media giantFacebook(NASDAQ:FB)is the perfect example.\nWhen the curtain closed on March, Facebook tallied 2.85 billion monthly active users (MAU) visiting its namesake site and an additional 600 million unique MAUs visiting WhatsApp or Instagram, which it also owns. All told, this equates to44% of the global populationinteracting with its owned sites each month. There's simply no social media platform businesses can go to get their message to a broader (or potentially targeted) audience, which is why Facebook ad-pricing power is so strong.\nBut here's the kicker: Facebookhasn't even put the pedal to the metal. Although it's on track to generate more than $100 billion in advertising revenue in 2021, nearly all of these ad sales are coming from its namesake site and Instagram. WhatsApp and Facebook Messenger, which are two of the six most-visited social sites in the world, aren't being meaningfully monetized as of yet. Further, the company's Oculus virtual reality devices are still in the early stage of their growth. Suffice it to say, Facebook offers ample upside as its other operating segments are monetized and mature.\nNextEra Energy\nAnother high-conviction stock to buy hand over fist the next time a crash or steep correction strikes is electric utility stockNextEra Energy(NYSE:NEE).\nDid I put you to sleep when I said \"electric utility stock?\" Electric utilities are traditionally known for their market-topping dividend yields and persistently low growth rates. But this doesn't describe NextEra Energy. NextEra has aggressively invested in renewable energy projects and is leading the country in solar and wind capacity. As a result of these investments, its electric generation costs have declined and its compound annual growth ratehas consistently been in the high single digitsfor more than a decade. It also doesn't hurt that NextEra is front-running any potential green-energy legislation that might come out of Washington.\nIn addition to growth rates that are well above the sector average, NextEra still benefits from the predictability of energy demand. For instance, its regulated utilities (i.e., those not powered by renewable energy) require approval from state utility commissions before price hikes can be passed along to households. This might sound like an inconvenience, but it's actually great news. It means NextEra won't be exposed to potentially volatile wholesale pricing.\nVisa\nWhen the next stock market crash arrives, payment processing kingpinVisa(NYSE:V)is a winning company to confidently buy hand over fist. It's also another brand-name company thatcan still make its shareholders a fortune.\nBuying into the Visa growth story is a simple numbers game. Visa grows its revenue and profits when consumers and businesses are spending more. This happens when the U.S. and global economy are expanding. Although contractions and recessions are an inevitable part of the economic cycle, they tend to be short-lived. Meanwhile, periods of economic expansion are almost always measured in years. Buying into Visa during these short-lived crashes or corrections should allow long-term investors to be handsomely rewarded by this numbers game.\nThe other interesting thing about Visa is thatit's shunned becoming a lender. You'd think that Visa could generate big bucks from interest income and fees by lending during these long-lived periods of expansion. But lending would also expose Visa to the credit delinquencies that arise during recessions. Operating solely as a payment processor means not having to set aside cash to cover delinquencies. It's why Visa rebounds so much faster than most financial stocks following a recession.\nAmazon\nLastly (andwho couldn't see this coming?), investors should take any discount they can get during a crash on e-commerce behemothAmazon(NASDAQ:AMZN).\nAmazon's online marketplace has proved virtually unstoppable for well over a decade. An April 2021 report from eMarketer pegged the company's share of U.S. online sales at 40.4%. That more than quintuples its next-closest competitor and effectively solidifies Amazon as the go-to source for online shopping in the U.S.\nWhat about those pesky low retail margins, you ask? Amazon has signed up more than 200 million people globally to a Prime membership. The fees collected from Prime members help to offset some of the company's retail-based margin weakness. Prime members are extremely loyal to the Amazon ecosystem and spend far more than non-members, too.\nBut it's Amazon's cloud infrastructure segmentthat's the superstar. Amazon Web Services (AWS) brings in around one-eighth of the company's total sales but accounts for well over half its operating income. Since cloud margins are superior to retail and advertising margins, AWS is the company's key to explosive cash flow growth this decade.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":140,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":184725005,"gmtCreate":1623726276307,"gmtModify":1634029491461,"author":{"id":"3573119962682037","authorId":"3573119962682037","name":"FreedomKim","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4300b07a250f193db050a2a7c7e36dfd","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3573119962682037","idStr":"3573119962682037"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"这是从Aswath damodaran 的部落格翻译的文章","listText":"这是从Aswath damodaran 的部落格翻译的文章","text":"这是从Aswath damodaran 的部落格翻译的文章","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/184725005","repostId":"1118790986","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1118790986","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"有料，有趣，有深度。由董秘、CFO、投行和基金经理等一线从业人员组建的专业市值管理公众号，专注于解读中国资本市场最典型的并购重组、最血腥的股权战争和最脑洞大开的财务舞弊。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"市值风云","id":"43","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3f9d4dad6ffc401f8c85b4d6b0210c3a"},"pubTimestamp":1623648821,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1118790986?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-14 13:33","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"通货膨胀与投资，虚惊一场还是公平预警？","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1118790986","media":"市值风云","summary":"黄金和房地产是对冲通胀最好的两种资产，其中房地产在对冲预期通胀方面表现相对较好，黄金在抵御意外通胀方面做得更好。\n\n随着我们接近2021年中期，到目前为止金融市场在很大程度上表现相当不错。\n从美国股市","content":"<blockquote>\n <b>黄金和房地产是对冲通胀最好的两种资产，其中房地产在对冲预期通胀方面表现相对较好，黄金在抵御意外通胀方面做得更好。</b>\n</blockquote>\n<p>随着我们接近2021年中期，到目前为止金融市场在很大程度上表现相当不错。</p>\n<p>从美国股市来看，标普500指数和纳斯达克指数分别较年初上涨约11%和5%。后者的表现不佳，引发了一系列关于价值股在经历了为期十年跑输成长股之后是否重新崛起的报道。</p>\n<p>这十年里，市场在与两股相互竞争的力量角力，一是经济增长快于预期，起到了利好作用；二是担心这种增长会带来更高的通胀和利率，起到了利空作用。</p>\n<p>随着通货膨胀重新回到市场意识中，人们就我们所看到的较高的通货膨胀是暂时的还是永久性的，以及如果是永久性的，它们将如何在金融市场上发挥作用展开了激烈的讨论。</p>\n<p><b>一、美国通货膨胀史</b></p>\n<p>不同的通货膨胀指标即使在同一时期也会产生不同的值，这主要是由衡量的层面（消费者、生产者）、商品和服务篮子的定义方式以及如何收集和汇总价格决定的。</p>\n<p>在下图中，我查看了美国通胀的四种衡量标准。</p>\n<p>前两个指标是城市消费者价格指数（CPI），一个是自1913年以来公布的没有经过季节性调整的指数，另一个是自1948年以来公布的经过季节性调整的指数。</p>\n<p>第三个是生产者价格指数（PPI），其中商品和服务的价格变化是在生产者层面衡量的。第四个是GDP价格平减指数，根据BEA对名义和实际GDP的估计值计算得出。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e4d4a06e22cb93123e4cfa58dae7ede0\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"795\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>可以看出，四种通胀指标高度相关，至少从历史上看，没有迹象表明一种指标可以系统地提供高于或低于其他指标的价值。</p>\n<p>PPI确实显示出比其他价格指数更大的波动性，但也没有迹象表明它或任何其他指标领先于其他指标。</p>\n<p>在四项指标都有数据的70年中，有两个突出时期。</p>\n<p>通货膨胀最高是在在1970年代，并蔓延到1980年代的头几年，那是美国最接近面临通胀失控的时刻，后面我们将研究这一时期的投资表现。</p>\n<p>通货膨胀率最低是在过去十年（2010-19年）中，2020年继续保持低通货膨胀率。</p>\n<p><b>二、通货膨胀和价值</b></p>\n<p>这一节我们讨论通货膨胀对资产价值的影响。首先从固定收益证券开始，追踪预期通胀和意外通胀对价值的影响，然后转向更复杂的股票案例，以及它们如何受到预期通胀和意外通胀的影响。</p>\n<p><b>（一）通货膨胀和固定收益证券</b></p>\n<p>要了解通货膨胀如何影响固定收益债券的价值，我们首先要认识到，在固定收益证券中，买方对预先指定的现金流量具有合同要求，并且现金流量是名义上的。</p>\n<p>因此，预期通胀和意外通胀以非常不同的方式影响债券购买者：</p>\n<p><b>1、预期通胀</b></p>\n<p>在债券合约开始时，债券的买方在决定债券的票面利率时会考虑当时的预期通胀。因此，如果预期通货膨胀率为5%，那么理性的债券购买者将要求比预期通货膨胀率为3%时高得多的利率。</p>\n<p><b>2、意外通胀</b></p>\n<p>在合同创建和债券发行之后，债券买卖双方都面临实际通货膨胀的风险，该通货膨胀可能高于或低于债券发行时的预期通胀。</p>\n<p>如果实际通胀低于预期通胀，债券利率将下降，债券价格将上涨。相反，如果实际通胀高于预期，利率将上升，债券价格将下降。</p>\n<p>债券购买者从债券中获得的回报有两个组成部分，一个是包含发行债券时预期通胀的票息部分，另一个是与意外通胀成反比的价格升值部分。</p>\n<p><b>通胀价值主张1：在通胀低于预期的时期，国债收益率会受到价格上涨的推动，而在通胀高于预期的时期，国债收益率会受到价格贬值的拖累。</b></p>\n<p>对于公司债券，通货膨胀将产生与无违约债券或国债相同的直接后果，而且还有一个额外的因素在起作用。</p>\n<p>随着通胀高于预期，企业借款利率将会上升，而这些较高的利率可能会增加所有企业借款人的违约风险。这种更高的风险可能表现为更高的债券违约利差，压低公司债券价格，给公司债券持有人带来额外的痛苦。</p>\n<p><b>通胀价值主张2：在通胀高于（低于）预期的时期，企业违约风险会增加（降低），导致企业债券回报落后（领先）国债回报。</b></p>\n<p><b>（二）通货膨胀和股票</b></p>\n<p>为了理解通货膨胀如何影响股票价值，请看如下的企业价值的驱动因素图。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6dd2ff4d56647c542eff97b564e9e0a3\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"818\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>嵌入在这张图片中的预期通胀和意外通胀，均可以通过多种途径影响企业价值。</p>\n<p><b>1、利率</b></p>\n<p>通货膨胀和股票价值之间最直接的联系是通过无风险利率（利率）形成的，该利率构成了投资者投资公司股票和借钱所需的预期回报的基础。如果通胀高于预期，你会预期利率将会上升，从而推高股票投资者和贷方所要求的回报。</p>\n<p><b>2、风险溢价和违约风险</b></p>\n<p>通货膨胀本身对股票风险溢价没有直接影响，但高通胀水平会导致未来通货膨胀的更多不确定性却是事实。</p>\n<p>因此，随着通货膨胀的增加，股票风险溢价将趋于增加。高于预期的通胀对违约利差的影响更为直观，反映了通胀上升、利率上升时利息支出会更高的现实，而这些更大的利息支出可能会产生更高的违约风险。</p>\n<p><b>3、收入增长率</b></p>\n<p>随着通货膨胀率的上升，所有公司都将有更多的涨价自由，但是具有定价权的公司，拥有更强大的竞争地位，将比没有定价权的公司更容易在顾客抵制涨价的生意中经营。</p>\n<p>因此，当通胀上升时，前者的涨价将能够超过通胀率，而后者的提价将滞后于通胀。</p>\n<p><b>4、营业利润率</b></p>\n<p>如果收入和成本都以通货膨胀率上升，利润率应该不会受到通货膨胀变化的影响，但这种情况很少见。</p>\n<p>对于成本对高通胀敏感而收入不太敏感的公司，利润率将随着通胀上升而下降。相反，对于成本对通胀不敏感的公司，随着通货膨胀的上升，收入可以迅速增加利润。</p>\n<p><b>5、税收</b></p>\n<p>在世界大部分地区，税法都是以名义形式编写的，当通货膨胀上升时，公司支付的有效税率可能会发生变化。</p>\n<p>例如税法的一个方面，允许公司随着时间的推移对建筑和设备的投资进行折旧，但只能根据最初投资于这些资产的金额进行折旧。随着通货膨胀率上升，这种贬值带来的税收收益将减少，从而有效地提高了税率。</p>\n<p>最重要的是，高于预期的通胀将对不同公司产生不同的影响，有些受益，有些不受影响，有些则损失价值。</p>\n<p><b>通胀价值主张3：在通胀高于（低于）预期的时期，个别公司可能受益、不受影响或受到通胀的伤害，这取决于通胀的好处（更高的收入增长和利润率）是否大于、等于或低于意外通胀的成本（更高的无风险利率、更高的风险溢价、更高的违约利差和更高的税收）。</b></p>\n<p>虽然个别公司可能会从更高的通胀中受益，但更高的通胀如何影响整体股票的问题仍是一个悬而未决的问题。</p>\n<p>假设公司总体上能够提供足够高的收入增长以匹配无风险利率的增长，并且保费保持不变，但仍然会受到风险溢价、失败风险和有效税收增加的拖累。</p>\n<p>高于预期的通胀总体上可能对股票有利的唯一情况是，通胀上升伴随着总收益的超常增长，并且远远超过通胀效应的影响。</p>\n<p><b>通胀价值主张4：由于投资者难以重新评估风险溢价，企业也试图调整产品定价和成本结构，以应对更高的通胀率，因此出人意料的高通胀通常会对市场造成净负效应，至少在预期重置之前是如此。</b></p>\n<p><b>三、通货膨胀与投资</b></p>\n<p>理论上，从直觉上讲，高于预期的通胀会对国债不利，对公司债更不利，对个股有利、不利或中性。</p>\n<p>然而，真理来源于数据，在本节中，我将回顾近100年的历史，看看不同资产类别在应对预期通胀和意外通胀时的实际表现。</p>\n<p><b>（一）通货膨胀、股票和债券回报</b></p>\n<p>为了评估股票和债券如何受到通货膨胀的影响，我从股票（以标准普尔500指数为代表）、国债（以10年固定期限债券为代表）和公司债券（以Baa10年期公司债券为代表）回报的历史数据入手。</p>\n<p>为了衡量通货膨胀，我使用了未针对季节性因素进行调整的CPI，因为它是整个时间段内唯一可用的通货膨胀序列，为了估计意外的通货膨胀，我使用了一个简单的指标：</p>\n<p>意外通胀=t年的通胀-（t-1至t-10年的平均通胀）</p>\n<p>我将这些系列汇总在下图中：</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/eb984f95113aac3bb0c834be04522d36\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"783\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>由于在这个图表中不能检测到明显的规律，因此我将数据按十年细分，并按十年查看股票、国债和公司债券的年度名义回报和实际回报：</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f09928302d2d9e5e02db01c13ea83e9a\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"354\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>从年度实际回报来看，随着2008年金融危机熔解了整整十年的收益，2000-2009年这个时间段成为股票最糟糕的10年，第二糟糕的十年是1970年-1979年，这段时期的意外通胀最高。</p>\n<p>对于国债，最糟糕的两个十年分别是1940年代和1970年代，这两个十年都是意外通胀最高的十年，而最好的十年是1980年代。</p>\n<p>对于公司债券，唯一出现负实际回报的十年是1970年代，而且同期国债和股票业绩受到的影响更大。</p>\n<p>透过通货膨胀更深入地研究股票，特别是20世纪两个广泛报道的现象，小盘股表现优于大盘股，以及低PB股票回报高于高PB股票：</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bc1a402bb0bfb3e834895cdfb10546ba\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"417\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>此表中的数据存在过度解读的风险，但低PB股票最好的30年是1940-49、1970-79和1980-89，这30年通胀率很高，其中20年通胀率远远高于预期。</p>\n<p>相反，价值股跑输成长股的几十年是1990-99年和2010-19年，当时通货膨胀率远低于预期。</p>\n<p>小盘股溢价与通货膨胀之间没有发现联系，无论是预期通胀还是意外通胀。</p>\n<p>简而言之，对于那些在过去十年中一直徘徊在投资荒野中的价值投资者来说，通胀回升可能带来向低PE和PBV股票倾斜的一线希望。</p>\n<p><b>（二）通货膨胀、黄金和房地产</b></p>\n<p>黄金是抵御通胀的终极工具，这是投资常识的一部分。哈维和埃尔布指出，在很长一段时间内（数百年），黄金保持其购买力，并有效地以通货膨胀率增长。</p>\n<p>没有哪个资产类别比房地产更能抵御通胀波动，这也是投资常识的一部分。</p>\n<p>为了检查这些常识背后的数据，我将黄金回报率（使用伦敦定盘价的黄金价格）和房地产回报率（使用罗伯特·席勒的房价数据库）作为通货膨胀的函数。</p>\n<p>请注意，随着1970年以来金本位制的有效废除，黄金价格才可用。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b4ff987a1e920bb72af79aaa5565f507\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"783\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>虽然你可以看到1970年代黄金价格的飙升并将其与该时期的高通胀联系起来，但我按十年划分研究了黄金和房地产的名义和实际回报，就像我研究股票一样：</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/06fcc45a00ae07760b49daa18e4ddfd9\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"584\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>黄金显然在1970年代取得了成功的十年，但它在2000-09年股市处于困境期间也表现良好，而且在2020年发挥了避险资产的作用。</p>\n<p>房地产在1970年代的名义回报率很稳定，在那十年中，回报率达到并超过通胀，但名义回报率和实际回报率最佳的十年是2000-09年，尽管在这十年结束时房地产崩盘抹去了大部分复合收益。</p>\n<p><b>（三）通货膨胀、收藏品和加密货币</b></p>\n<p>对于担心金融资产崩溃的投资者来说，藏身之处相对较少，但随着时间的推移，一些人开始寻求艺术品和收藏品的庇护，认为毕加索比股票更有可能保护你抵御通胀。</p>\n<p>在过去的十年中，年轻的投资者也开始寻找加密货币，他们认为加密货币的设计在数量上有着严格的限制，应该能让加密货币更好地储存价值。正是因为这个原因，有些人认为比特币是千禧一代的黄金，但它是否能很好地发挥这一作用尚无定论。</p>\n<p>如果黄金在历史上扮演的角色一直是为了躲避高通胀和市场危机，那么问题就变成了比特币是否也能扮演这一角色。</p>\n<p><b>去年，我确实检查了比特币和以太币在这一年中的表现，并得出结论，至少在2020年，比特币和以太币的表现不像收藏品，而更像高风险股票。</b></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c57fb32a5ef0e4e07868e7f4a168165f\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"784\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>显然，这只是一段历史，比特币和以太币在未来的危机中有可能表现得更好。关于意外的高通胀将如何影响加密货币的问题很难得出结论，因为加密货币只存在了十几年多一点的时间，且在此期间通胀处于历史低点。</p>\n<p><b>（四）躲避通胀？</b></p>\n<p>在研究了过去股票、债券、房地产和黄金如何随着预期通胀和意外通胀而变动后，我使用这些资产类别的逐年数据来估计与预期通胀和意外通胀的相关性。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ce85b1215cf0d44d94bcdca4a2c4ecbe\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"330\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>这张表很好地说明了通货膨胀和资产回报的综合情况。</p>\n<p>仅有的两种同时随预期通胀和意外通胀而变动的资产类别都是黄金和房地产，尽管这种联动的相当一部分可以用1970年代来解释。虽然房地产是一种更好的对冲预期通胀的工具，但黄金在抵御意外通胀方面做得更好。</p>\n<p>受通胀影响最严重的资产类别是国债和公司债券，但意外通胀造成的损害远大于预期通胀。</p>\n<p>股票和预期通胀几乎不相关，但股票与意外通胀的相关性为负，尽管比债券表现出的弱且在统计上不显著。</p>\n<p>最后，虽然通胀较高时价值溢价更大，但结果在统计上并不显着，这表明其他力量在该溢价消失的过程中发挥了更大的作用。</p>\n<p>是否有一些行业比其他行业更能抵御通胀？为了研究这个问题，我研究了广泛的行业分类，并结合通胀数据估计了几十年来的年回报率：</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/af5aae56b68b504f55f48cd45ae1cf31\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"243\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>唯一似乎与通胀有关的行业是能源，它不仅在1970年代随着油价飙升而表现出色，而且在另一个高通胀十年1940年代也表现出色，但在2010年至2019年期间表现不佳，因为通胀降至历史水平低点。</p>\n<p>由于通胀是货币特有的，因此还有另一种途径可以保护通胀，但只有在通货膨胀仅限于美国的情况下才可行。</p>\n<p>如果其他国家的通货膨胀率仍然较低，无论是因为他们有更谨慎的央行行长，或者因为他们的经济仍然疲软，你可以预期他们的货币相对于美元将升值，并且他们的股票和债券市场表现不佳。</p>\n<p>但鉴于世界各地的央行行长行为都很相似，我不敢肯定我会押注于这种可能性。</p>\n<p><b>四、现在怎么办？</b></p>\n<p>你可以就这篇文章提出自己的结论，但这里是我们立场的总结：</p>\n<p><b>1、通胀又回来了</b></p>\n<p>毫无疑问，我们现在看到的通胀率比近十年更高，包括报告数据（CPI、PPI和GDP平减指数）、通胀预期（来自国债市场和调查）和商品市场。</p>\n<p><b>2、不清楚它是暂时的还是永久性的</b></p>\n<p>投资者和央行之间的争论是，通胀飙升是否反映了经济停摆带来的复苏，一旦形势稳定下来，经济停摆是会消失，还是将在过去十年中异常低通胀的基础上永久性增长。恐怕只有时间才能回答这个问题。</p>\n<p>如果今年夏天经济走强，通胀继续超过预期，我认为答案就在我们面前。</p>\n<p><b>3、回归正常</b></p>\n<p>如果部分或全部通胀上升是永久性的，并且我们正在恢复到更正常的通胀水平（2-3%），那么随着利率上升和股票价格重新调整，故事将会有一个调整，甚至可能是痛苦的。</p>\n<p>你仍然可以找到更有能力应对更高通胀的股票板块，大宗商品公司和具有显著定价能力的公司比其他市场拥有更好的价值。</p>\n<p><b>4、突破的可能性很大</b></p>\n<p>如果它是永久性的，并且我们看到通货膨胀率上升到1970年代和1980年代以来的最高水平（&gt;5%），股票和债券将不得不大幅重新定价。</p>\n<p>投资者不仅需要将资金从金融资产转移到实物资产和收藏品中，而且根据当前的低利率选择较多借贷的公司和个人也将面临违约风险清算。</p>\n<p><b>5、美联储必须做好准备</b></p>\n<p>美联储理应走在通胀游戏的前面。由于通胀上升到危险水平的可能性是不小的，在我看来，美联储无论如何都应该停止谈论通胀可控和利率保持低位的乐观情绪。</p>\n<p>对于那些急于否定通货膨胀的人来说，请记住，通货膨胀是阴险狡猾的，在可控的情况下是良性的，但在不可控的情况下，却是一种破坏性的力量，是一个应该放在瓶子里的妖怪。</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE 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}\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n通货膨胀与投资，虚惊一场还是公平预警？\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/43\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/3f9d4dad6ffc401f8c85b4d6b0210c3a);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">市值风云 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2021-06-14 13:33</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<blockquote>\n <b>黄金和房地产是对冲通胀最好的两种资产，其中房地产在对冲预期通胀方面表现相对较好，黄金在抵御意外通胀方面做得更好。</b>\n</blockquote>\n<p>随着我们接近2021年中期，到目前为止金融市场在很大程度上表现相当不错。</p>\n<p>从美国股市来看，标普500指数和纳斯达克指数分别较年初上涨约11%和5%。后者的表现不佳，引发了一系列关于价值股在经历了为期十年跑输成长股之后是否重新崛起的报道。</p>\n<p>这十年里，市场在与两股相互竞争的力量角力，一是经济增长快于预期，起到了利好作用；二是担心这种增长会带来更高的通胀和利率，起到了利空作用。</p>\n<p>随着通货膨胀重新回到市场意识中，人们就我们所看到的较高的通货膨胀是暂时的还是永久性的，以及如果是永久性的，它们将如何在金融市场上发挥作用展开了激烈的讨论。</p>\n<p><b>一、美国通货膨胀史</b></p>\n<p>不同的通货膨胀指标即使在同一时期也会产生不同的值，这主要是由衡量的层面（消费者、生产者）、商品和服务篮子的定义方式以及如何收集和汇总价格决定的。</p>\n<p>在下图中，我查看了美国通胀的四种衡量标准。</p>\n<p>前两个指标是城市消费者价格指数（CPI），一个是自1913年以来公布的没有经过季节性调整的指数，另一个是自1948年以来公布的经过季节性调整的指数。</p>\n<p>第三个是生产者价格指数（PPI），其中商品和服务的价格变化是在生产者层面衡量的。第四个是GDP价格平减指数，根据BEA对名义和实际GDP的估计值计算得出。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e4d4a06e22cb93123e4cfa58dae7ede0\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"795\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>可以看出，四种通胀指标高度相关，至少从历史上看，没有迹象表明一种指标可以系统地提供高于或低于其他指标的价值。</p>\n<p>PPI确实显示出比其他价格指数更大的波动性，但也没有迹象表明它或任何其他指标领先于其他指标。</p>\n<p>在四项指标都有数据的70年中，有两个突出时期。</p>\n<p>通货膨胀最高是在在1970年代，并蔓延到1980年代的头几年，那是美国最接近面临通胀失控的时刻，后面我们将研究这一时期的投资表现。</p>\n<p>通货膨胀率最低是在过去十年（2010-19年）中，2020年继续保持低通货膨胀率。</p>\n<p><b>二、通货膨胀和价值</b></p>\n<p>这一节我们讨论通货膨胀对资产价值的影响。首先从固定收益证券开始，追踪预期通胀和意外通胀对价值的影响，然后转向更复杂的股票案例，以及它们如何受到预期通胀和意外通胀的影响。</p>\n<p><b>（一）通货膨胀和固定收益证券</b></p>\n<p>要了解通货膨胀如何影响固定收益债券的价值，我们首先要认识到，在固定收益证券中，买方对预先指定的现金流量具有合同要求，并且现金流量是名义上的。</p>\n<p>因此，预期通胀和意外通胀以非常不同的方式影响债券购买者：</p>\n<p><b>1、预期通胀</b></p>\n<p>在债券合约开始时，债券的买方在决定债券的票面利率时会考虑当时的预期通胀。因此，如果预期通货膨胀率为5%，那么理性的债券购买者将要求比预期通货膨胀率为3%时高得多的利率。</p>\n<p><b>2、意外通胀</b></p>\n<p>在合同创建和债券发行之后，债券买卖双方都面临实际通货膨胀的风险，该通货膨胀可能高于或低于债券发行时的预期通胀。</p>\n<p>如果实际通胀低于预期通胀，债券利率将下降，债券价格将上涨。相反，如果实际通胀高于预期，利率将上升，债券价格将下降。</p>\n<p>债券购买者从债券中获得的回报有两个组成部分，一个是包含发行债券时预期通胀的票息部分，另一个是与意外通胀成反比的价格升值部分。</p>\n<p><b>通胀价值主张1：在通胀低于预期的时期，国债收益率会受到价格上涨的推动，而在通胀高于预期的时期，国债收益率会受到价格贬值的拖累。</b></p>\n<p>对于公司债券，通货膨胀将产生与无违约债券或国债相同的直接后果，而且还有一个额外的因素在起作用。</p>\n<p>随着通胀高于预期，企业借款利率将会上升，而这些较高的利率可能会增加所有企业借款人的违约风险。这种更高的风险可能表现为更高的债券违约利差，压低公司债券价格，给公司债券持有人带来额外的痛苦。</p>\n<p><b>通胀价值主张2：在通胀高于（低于）预期的时期，企业违约风险会增加（降低），导致企业债券回报落后（领先）国债回报。</b></p>\n<p><b>（二）通货膨胀和股票</b></p>\n<p>为了理解通货膨胀如何影响股票价值，请看如下的企业价值的驱动因素图。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6dd2ff4d56647c542eff97b564e9e0a3\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"818\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>嵌入在这张图片中的预期通胀和意外通胀，均可以通过多种途径影响企业价值。</p>\n<p><b>1、利率</b></p>\n<p>通货膨胀和股票价值之间最直接的联系是通过无风险利率（利率）形成的，该利率构成了投资者投资公司股票和借钱所需的预期回报的基础。如果通胀高于预期，你会预期利率将会上升，从而推高股票投资者和贷方所要求的回报。</p>\n<p><b>2、风险溢价和违约风险</b></p>\n<p>通货膨胀本身对股票风险溢价没有直接影响，但高通胀水平会导致未来通货膨胀的更多不确定性却是事实。</p>\n<p>因此，随着通货膨胀的增加，股票风险溢价将趋于增加。高于预期的通胀对违约利差的影响更为直观，反映了通胀上升、利率上升时利息支出会更高的现实，而这些更大的利息支出可能会产生更高的违约风险。</p>\n<p><b>3、收入增长率</b></p>\n<p>随着通货膨胀率的上升，所有公司都将有更多的涨价自由，但是具有定价权的公司，拥有更强大的竞争地位，将比没有定价权的公司更容易在顾客抵制涨价的生意中经营。</p>\n<p>因此，当通胀上升时，前者的涨价将能够超过通胀率，而后者的提价将滞后于通胀。</p>\n<p><b>4、营业利润率</b></p>\n<p>如果收入和成本都以通货膨胀率上升，利润率应该不会受到通货膨胀变化的影响，但这种情况很少见。</p>\n<p>对于成本对高通胀敏感而收入不太敏感的公司，利润率将随着通胀上升而下降。相反，对于成本对通胀不敏感的公司，随着通货膨胀的上升，收入可以迅速增加利润。</p>\n<p><b>5、税收</b></p>\n<p>在世界大部分地区，税法都是以名义形式编写的，当通货膨胀上升时，公司支付的有效税率可能会发生变化。</p>\n<p>例如税法的一个方面，允许公司随着时间的推移对建筑和设备的投资进行折旧，但只能根据最初投资于这些资产的金额进行折旧。随着通货膨胀率上升，这种贬值带来的税收收益将减少，从而有效地提高了税率。</p>\n<p>最重要的是，高于预期的通胀将对不同公司产生不同的影响，有些受益，有些不受影响，有些则损失价值。</p>\n<p><b>通胀价值主张3：在通胀高于（低于）预期的时期，个别公司可能受益、不受影响或受到通胀的伤害，这取决于通胀的好处（更高的收入增长和利润率）是否大于、等于或低于意外通胀的成本（更高的无风险利率、更高的风险溢价、更高的违约利差和更高的税收）。</b></p>\n<p>虽然个别公司可能会从更高的通胀中受益，但更高的通胀如何影响整体股票的问题仍是一个悬而未决的问题。</p>\n<p>假设公司总体上能够提供足够高的收入增长以匹配无风险利率的增长，并且保费保持不变，但仍然会受到风险溢价、失败风险和有效税收增加的拖累。</p>\n<p>高于预期的通胀总体上可能对股票有利的唯一情况是，通胀上升伴随着总收益的超常增长，并且远远超过通胀效应的影响。</p>\n<p><b>通胀价值主张4：由于投资者难以重新评估风险溢价，企业也试图调整产品定价和成本结构，以应对更高的通胀率，因此出人意料的高通胀通常会对市场造成净负效应，至少在预期重置之前是如此。</b></p>\n<p><b>三、通货膨胀与投资</b></p>\n<p>理论上，从直觉上讲，高于预期的通胀会对国债不利，对公司债更不利，对个股有利、不利或中性。</p>\n<p>然而，真理来源于数据，在本节中，我将回顾近100年的历史，看看不同资产类别在应对预期通胀和意外通胀时的实际表现。</p>\n<p><b>（一）通货膨胀、股票和债券回报</b></p>\n<p>为了评估股票和债券如何受到通货膨胀的影响，我从股票（以标准普尔500指数为代表）、国债（以10年固定期限债券为代表）和公司债券（以Baa10年期公司债券为代表）回报的历史数据入手。</p>\n<p>为了衡量通货膨胀，我使用了未针对季节性因素进行调整的CPI，因为它是整个时间段内唯一可用的通货膨胀序列，为了估计意外的通货膨胀，我使用了一个简单的指标：</p>\n<p>意外通胀=t年的通胀-（t-1至t-10年的平均通胀）</p>\n<p>我将这些系列汇总在下图中：</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/eb984f95113aac3bb0c834be04522d36\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"783\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>由于在这个图表中不能检测到明显的规律，因此我将数据按十年细分，并按十年查看股票、国债和公司债券的年度名义回报和实际回报：</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f09928302d2d9e5e02db01c13ea83e9a\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"354\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>从年度实际回报来看，随着2008年金融危机熔解了整整十年的收益，2000-2009年这个时间段成为股票最糟糕的10年，第二糟糕的十年是1970年-1979年，这段时期的意外通胀最高。</p>\n<p>对于国债，最糟糕的两个十年分别是1940年代和1970年代，这两个十年都是意外通胀最高的十年，而最好的十年是1980年代。</p>\n<p>对于公司债券，唯一出现负实际回报的十年是1970年代，而且同期国债和股票业绩受到的影响更大。</p>\n<p>透过通货膨胀更深入地研究股票，特别是20世纪两个广泛报道的现象，小盘股表现优于大盘股，以及低PB股票回报高于高PB股票：</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bc1a402bb0bfb3e834895cdfb10546ba\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"417\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>此表中的数据存在过度解读的风险，但低PB股票最好的30年是1940-49、1970-79和1980-89，这30年通胀率很高，其中20年通胀率远远高于预期。</p>\n<p>相反，价值股跑输成长股的几十年是1990-99年和2010-19年，当时通货膨胀率远低于预期。</p>\n<p>小盘股溢价与通货膨胀之间没有发现联系，无论是预期通胀还是意外通胀。</p>\n<p>简而言之，对于那些在过去十年中一直徘徊在投资荒野中的价值投资者来说，通胀回升可能带来向低PE和PBV股票倾斜的一线希望。</p>\n<p><b>（二）通货膨胀、黄金和房地产</b></p>\n<p>黄金是抵御通胀的终极工具，这是投资常识的一部分。哈维和埃尔布指出，在很长一段时间内（数百年），黄金保持其购买力，并有效地以通货膨胀率增长。</p>\n<p>没有哪个资产类别比房地产更能抵御通胀波动，这也是投资常识的一部分。</p>\n<p>为了检查这些常识背后的数据，我将黄金回报率（使用伦敦定盘价的黄金价格）和房地产回报率（使用罗伯特·席勒的房价数据库）作为通货膨胀的函数。</p>\n<p>请注意，随着1970年以来金本位制的有效废除，黄金价格才可用。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b4ff987a1e920bb72af79aaa5565f507\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"783\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>虽然你可以看到1970年代黄金价格的飙升并将其与该时期的高通胀联系起来，但我按十年划分研究了黄金和房地产的名义和实际回报，就像我研究股票一样：</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/06fcc45a00ae07760b49daa18e4ddfd9\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"584\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>黄金显然在1970年代取得了成功的十年，但它在2000-09年股市处于困境期间也表现良好，而且在2020年发挥了避险资产的作用。</p>\n<p>房地产在1970年代的名义回报率很稳定，在那十年中，回报率达到并超过通胀，但名义回报率和实际回报率最佳的十年是2000-09年，尽管在这十年结束时房地产崩盘抹去了大部分复合收益。</p>\n<p><b>（三）通货膨胀、收藏品和加密货币</b></p>\n<p>对于担心金融资产崩溃的投资者来说，藏身之处相对较少，但随着时间的推移，一些人开始寻求艺术品和收藏品的庇护，认为毕加索比股票更有可能保护你抵御通胀。</p>\n<p>在过去的十年中，年轻的投资者也开始寻找加密货币，他们认为加密货币的设计在数量上有着严格的限制，应该能让加密货币更好地储存价值。正是因为这个原因，有些人认为比特币是千禧一代的黄金，但它是否能很好地发挥这一作用尚无定论。</p>\n<p>如果黄金在历史上扮演的角色一直是为了躲避高通胀和市场危机，那么问题就变成了比特币是否也能扮演这一角色。</p>\n<p><b>去年，我确实检查了比特币和以太币在这一年中的表现，并得出结论，至少在2020年，比特币和以太币的表现不像收藏品，而更像高风险股票。</b></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c57fb32a5ef0e4e07868e7f4a168165f\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"784\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>显然，这只是一段历史，比特币和以太币在未来的危机中有可能表现得更好。关于意外的高通胀将如何影响加密货币的问题很难得出结论，因为加密货币只存在了十几年多一点的时间，且在此期间通胀处于历史低点。</p>\n<p><b>（四）躲避通胀？</b></p>\n<p>在研究了过去股票、债券、房地产和黄金如何随着预期通胀和意外通胀而变动后，我使用这些资产类别的逐年数据来估计与预期通胀和意外通胀的相关性。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ce85b1215cf0d44d94bcdca4a2c4ecbe\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"330\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>这张表很好地说明了通货膨胀和资产回报的综合情况。</p>\n<p>仅有的两种同时随预期通胀和意外通胀而变动的资产类别都是黄金和房地产，尽管这种联动的相当一部分可以用1970年代来解释。虽然房地产是一种更好的对冲预期通胀的工具，但黄金在抵御意外通胀方面做得更好。</p>\n<p>受通胀影响最严重的资产类别是国债和公司债券，但意外通胀造成的损害远大于预期通胀。</p>\n<p>股票和预期通胀几乎不相关，但股票与意外通胀的相关性为负，尽管比债券表现出的弱且在统计上不显著。</p>\n<p>最后，虽然通胀较高时价值溢价更大，但结果在统计上并不显着，这表明其他力量在该溢价消失的过程中发挥了更大的作用。</p>\n<p>是否有一些行业比其他行业更能抵御通胀？为了研究这个问题，我研究了广泛的行业分类，并结合通胀数据估计了几十年来的年回报率：</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/af5aae56b68b504f55f48cd45ae1cf31\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"243\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>唯一似乎与通胀有关的行业是能源，它不仅在1970年代随着油价飙升而表现出色，而且在另一个高通胀十年1940年代也表现出色，但在2010年至2019年期间表现不佳，因为通胀降至历史水平低点。</p>\n<p>由于通胀是货币特有的，因此还有另一种途径可以保护通胀，但只有在通货膨胀仅限于美国的情况下才可行。</p>\n<p>如果其他国家的通货膨胀率仍然较低，无论是因为他们有更谨慎的央行行长，或者因为他们的经济仍然疲软，你可以预期他们的货币相对于美元将升值，并且他们的股票和债券市场表现不佳。</p>\n<p>但鉴于世界各地的央行行长行为都很相似，我不敢肯定我会押注于这种可能性。</p>\n<p><b>四、现在怎么办？</b></p>\n<p>你可以就这篇文章提出自己的结论，但这里是我们立场的总结：</p>\n<p><b>1、通胀又回来了</b></p>\n<p>毫无疑问，我们现在看到的通胀率比近十年更高，包括报告数据（CPI、PPI和GDP平减指数）、通胀预期（来自国债市场和调查）和商品市场。</p>\n<p><b>2、不清楚它是暂时的还是永久性的</b></p>\n<p>投资者和央行之间的争论是，通胀飙升是否反映了经济停摆带来的复苏，一旦形势稳定下来，经济停摆是会消失，还是将在过去十年中异常低通胀的基础上永久性增长。恐怕只有时间才能回答这个问题。</p>\n<p>如果今年夏天经济走强，通胀继续超过预期，我认为答案就在我们面前。</p>\n<p><b>3、回归正常</b></p>\n<p>如果部分或全部通胀上升是永久性的，并且我们正在恢复到更正常的通胀水平（2-3%），那么随着利率上升和股票价格重新调整，故事将会有一个调整，甚至可能是痛苦的。</p>\n<p>你仍然可以找到更有能力应对更高通胀的股票板块，大宗商品公司和具有显著定价能力的公司比其他市场拥有更好的价值。</p>\n<p><b>4、突破的可能性很大</b></p>\n<p>如果它是永久性的，并且我们看到通货膨胀率上升到1970年代和1980年代以来的最高水平（&gt;5%），股票和债券将不得不大幅重新定价。</p>\n<p>投资者不仅需要将资金从金融资产转移到实物资产和收藏品中，而且根据当前的低利率选择较多借贷的公司和个人也将面临违约风险清算。</p>\n<p><b>5、美联储必须做好准备</b></p>\n<p>美联储理应走在通胀游戏的前面。由于通胀上升到危险水平的可能性是不小的，在我看来，美联储无论如何都应该停止谈论通胀可控和利率保持低位的乐观情绪。</p>\n<p>对于那些急于否定通货膨胀的人来说，请记住，通货膨胀是阴险狡猾的，在可控的情况下是良性的，但在不可控的情况下，却是一种破坏性的力量，是一个应该放在瓶子里的妖怪。</p>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c318bcd91a109139b7d70c76c30bb154","relate_stocks":{},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1118790986","content_text":"黄金和房地产是对冲通胀最好的两种资产，其中房地产在对冲预期通胀方面表现相对较好，黄金在抵御意外通胀方面做得更好。\n\n随着我们接近2021年中期，到目前为止金融市场在很大程度上表现相当不错。\n从美国股市来看，标普500指数和纳斯达克指数分别较年初上涨约11%和5%。后者的表现不佳，引发了一系列关于价值股在经历了为期十年跑输成长股之后是否重新崛起的报道。\n这十年里，市场在与两股相互竞争的力量角力，一是经济增长快于预期，起到了利好作用；二是担心这种增长会带来更高的通胀和利率，起到了利空作用。\n随着通货膨胀重新回到市场意识中，人们就我们所看到的较高的通货膨胀是暂时的还是永久性的，以及如果是永久性的，它们将如何在金融市场上发挥作用展开了激烈的讨论。\n一、美国通货膨胀史\n不同的通货膨胀指标即使在同一时期也会产生不同的值，这主要是由衡量的层面（消费者、生产者）、商品和服务篮子的定义方式以及如何收集和汇总价格决定的。\n在下图中，我查看了美国通胀的四种衡量标准。\n前两个指标是城市消费者价格指数（CPI），一个是自1913年以来公布的没有经过季节性调整的指数，另一个是自1948年以来公布的经过季节性调整的指数。\n第三个是生产者价格指数（PPI），其中商品和服务的价格变化是在生产者层面衡量的。第四个是GDP价格平减指数，根据BEA对名义和实际GDP的估计值计算得出。\n\n可以看出，四种通胀指标高度相关，至少从历史上看，没有迹象表明一种指标可以系统地提供高于或低于其他指标的价值。\nPPI确实显示出比其他价格指数更大的波动性，但也没有迹象表明它或任何其他指标领先于其他指标。\n在四项指标都有数据的70年中，有两个突出时期。\n通货膨胀最高是在在1970年代，并蔓延到1980年代的头几年，那是美国最接近面临通胀失控的时刻，后面我们将研究这一时期的投资表现。\n通货膨胀率最低是在过去十年（2010-19年）中，2020年继续保持低通货膨胀率。\n二、通货膨胀和价值\n这一节我们讨论通货膨胀对资产价值的影响。首先从固定收益证券开始，追踪预期通胀和意外通胀对价值的影响，然后转向更复杂的股票案例，以及它们如何受到预期通胀和意外通胀的影响。\n（一）通货膨胀和固定收益证券\n要了解通货膨胀如何影响固定收益债券的价值，我们首先要认识到，在固定收益证券中，买方对预先指定的现金流量具有合同要求，并且现金流量是名义上的。\n因此，预期通胀和意外通胀以非常不同的方式影响债券购买者：\n1、预期通胀\n在债券合约开始时，债券的买方在决定债券的票面利率时会考虑当时的预期通胀。因此，如果预期通货膨胀率为5%，那么理性的债券购买者将要求比预期通货膨胀率为3%时高得多的利率。\n2、意外通胀\n在合同创建和债券发行之后，债券买卖双方都面临实际通货膨胀的风险，该通货膨胀可能高于或低于债券发行时的预期通胀。\n如果实际通胀低于预期通胀，债券利率将下降，债券价格将上涨。相反，如果实际通胀高于预期，利率将上升，债券价格将下降。\n债券购买者从债券中获得的回报有两个组成部分，一个是包含发行债券时预期通胀的票息部分，另一个是与意外通胀成反比的价格升值部分。\n通胀价值主张1：在通胀低于预期的时期，国债收益率会受到价格上涨的推动，而在通胀高于预期的时期，国债收益率会受到价格贬值的拖累。\n对于公司债券，通货膨胀将产生与无违约债券或国债相同的直接后果，而且还有一个额外的因素在起作用。\n随着通胀高于预期，企业借款利率将会上升，而这些较高的利率可能会增加所有企业借款人的违约风险。这种更高的风险可能表现为更高的债券违约利差，压低公司债券价格，给公司债券持有人带来额外的痛苦。\n通胀价值主张2：在通胀高于（低于）预期的时期，企业违约风险会增加（降低），导致企业债券回报落后（领先）国债回报。\n（二）通货膨胀和股票\n为了理解通货膨胀如何影响股票价值，请看如下的企业价值的驱动因素图。\n\n嵌入在这张图片中的预期通胀和意外通胀，均可以通过多种途径影响企业价值。\n1、利率\n通货膨胀和股票价值之间最直接的联系是通过无风险利率（利率）形成的，该利率构成了投资者投资公司股票和借钱所需的预期回报的基础。如果通胀高于预期，你会预期利率将会上升，从而推高股票投资者和贷方所要求的回报。\n2、风险溢价和违约风险\n通货膨胀本身对股票风险溢价没有直接影响，但高通胀水平会导致未来通货膨胀的更多不确定性却是事实。\n因此，随着通货膨胀的增加，股票风险溢价将趋于增加。高于预期的通胀对违约利差的影响更为直观，反映了通胀上升、利率上升时利息支出会更高的现实，而这些更大的利息支出可能会产生更高的违约风险。\n3、收入增长率\n随着通货膨胀率的上升，所有公司都将有更多的涨价自由，但是具有定价权的公司，拥有更强大的竞争地位，将比没有定价权的公司更容易在顾客抵制涨价的生意中经营。\n因此，当通胀上升时，前者的涨价将能够超过通胀率，而后者的提价将滞后于通胀。\n4、营业利润率\n如果收入和成本都以通货膨胀率上升，利润率应该不会受到通货膨胀变化的影响，但这种情况很少见。\n对于成本对高通胀敏感而收入不太敏感的公司，利润率将随着通胀上升而下降。相反，对于成本对通胀不敏感的公司，随着通货膨胀的上升，收入可以迅速增加利润。\n5、税收\n在世界大部分地区，税法都是以名义形式编写的，当通货膨胀上升时，公司支付的有效税率可能会发生变化。\n例如税法的一个方面，允许公司随着时间的推移对建筑和设备的投资进行折旧，但只能根据最初投资于这些资产的金额进行折旧。随着通货膨胀率上升，这种贬值带来的税收收益将减少，从而有效地提高了税率。\n最重要的是，高于预期的通胀将对不同公司产生不同的影响，有些受益，有些不受影响，有些则损失价值。\n通胀价值主张3：在通胀高于（低于）预期的时期，个别公司可能受益、不受影响或受到通胀的伤害，这取决于通胀的好处（更高的收入增长和利润率）是否大于、等于或低于意外通胀的成本（更高的无风险利率、更高的风险溢价、更高的违约利差和更高的税收）。\n虽然个别公司可能会从更高的通胀中受益，但更高的通胀如何影响整体股票的问题仍是一个悬而未决的问题。\n假设公司总体上能够提供足够高的收入增长以匹配无风险利率的增长，并且保费保持不变，但仍然会受到风险溢价、失败风险和有效税收增加的拖累。\n高于预期的通胀总体上可能对股票有利的唯一情况是，通胀上升伴随着总收益的超常增长，并且远远超过通胀效应的影响。\n通胀价值主张4：由于投资者难以重新评估风险溢价，企业也试图调整产品定价和成本结构，以应对更高的通胀率，因此出人意料的高通胀通常会对市场造成净负效应，至少在预期重置之前是如此。\n三、通货膨胀与投资\n理论上，从直觉上讲，高于预期的通胀会对国债不利，对公司债更不利，对个股有利、不利或中性。\n然而，真理来源于数据，在本节中，我将回顾近100年的历史，看看不同资产类别在应对预期通胀和意外通胀时的实际表现。\n（一）通货膨胀、股票和债券回报\n为了评估股票和债券如何受到通货膨胀的影响，我从股票（以标准普尔500指数为代表）、国债（以10年固定期限债券为代表）和公司债券（以Baa10年期公司债券为代表）回报的历史数据入手。\n为了衡量通货膨胀，我使用了未针对季节性因素进行调整的CPI，因为它是整个时间段内唯一可用的通货膨胀序列，为了估计意外的通货膨胀，我使用了一个简单的指标：\n意外通胀=t年的通胀-（t-1至t-10年的平均通胀）\n我将这些系列汇总在下图中：\n\n由于在这个图表中不能检测到明显的规律，因此我将数据按十年细分，并按十年查看股票、国债和公司债券的年度名义回报和实际回报：\n\n从年度实际回报来看，随着2008年金融危机熔解了整整十年的收益，2000-2009年这个时间段成为股票最糟糕的10年，第二糟糕的十年是1970年-1979年，这段时期的意外通胀最高。\n对于国债，最糟糕的两个十年分别是1940年代和1970年代，这两个十年都是意外通胀最高的十年，而最好的十年是1980年代。\n对于公司债券，唯一出现负实际回报的十年是1970年代，而且同期国债和股票业绩受到的影响更大。\n透过通货膨胀更深入地研究股票，特别是20世纪两个广泛报道的现象，小盘股表现优于大盘股，以及低PB股票回报高于高PB股票：\n\n此表中的数据存在过度解读的风险，但低PB股票最好的30年是1940-49、1970-79和1980-89，这30年通胀率很高，其中20年通胀率远远高于预期。\n相反，价值股跑输成长股的几十年是1990-99年和2010-19年，当时通货膨胀率远低于预期。\n小盘股溢价与通货膨胀之间没有发现联系，无论是预期通胀还是意外通胀。\n简而言之，对于那些在过去十年中一直徘徊在投资荒野中的价值投资者来说，通胀回升可能带来向低PE和PBV股票倾斜的一线希望。\n（二）通货膨胀、黄金和房地产\n黄金是抵御通胀的终极工具，这是投资常识的一部分。哈维和埃尔布指出，在很长一段时间内（数百年），黄金保持其购买力，并有效地以通货膨胀率增长。\n没有哪个资产类别比房地产更能抵御通胀波动，这也是投资常识的一部分。\n为了检查这些常识背后的数据，我将黄金回报率（使用伦敦定盘价的黄金价格）和房地产回报率（使用罗伯特·席勒的房价数据库）作为通货膨胀的函数。\n请注意，随着1970年以来金本位制的有效废除，黄金价格才可用。\n\n虽然你可以看到1970年代黄金价格的飙升并将其与该时期的高通胀联系起来，但我按十年划分研究了黄金和房地产的名义和实际回报，就像我研究股票一样：\n\n黄金显然在1970年代取得了成功的十年，但它在2000-09年股市处于困境期间也表现良好，而且在2020年发挥了避险资产的作用。\n房地产在1970年代的名义回报率很稳定，在那十年中，回报率达到并超过通胀，但名义回报率和实际回报率最佳的十年是2000-09年，尽管在这十年结束时房地产崩盘抹去了大部分复合收益。\n（三）通货膨胀、收藏品和加密货币\n对于担心金融资产崩溃的投资者来说，藏身之处相对较少，但随着时间的推移，一些人开始寻求艺术品和收藏品的庇护，认为毕加索比股票更有可能保护你抵御通胀。\n在过去的十年中，年轻的投资者也开始寻找加密货币，他们认为加密货币的设计在数量上有着严格的限制，应该能让加密货币更好地储存价值。正是因为这个原因，有些人认为比特币是千禧一代的黄金，但它是否能很好地发挥这一作用尚无定论。\n如果黄金在历史上扮演的角色一直是为了躲避高通胀和市场危机，那么问题就变成了比特币是否也能扮演这一角色。\n去年，我确实检查了比特币和以太币在这一年中的表现，并得出结论，至少在2020年，比特币和以太币的表现不像收藏品，而更像高风险股票。\n\n显然，这只是一段历史，比特币和以太币在未来的危机中有可能表现得更好。关于意外的高通胀将如何影响加密货币的问题很难得出结论，因为加密货币只存在了十几年多一点的时间，且在此期间通胀处于历史低点。\n（四）躲避通胀？\n在研究了过去股票、债券、房地产和黄金如何随着预期通胀和意外通胀而变动后，我使用这些资产类别的逐年数据来估计与预期通胀和意外通胀的相关性。\n\n这张表很好地说明了通货膨胀和资产回报的综合情况。\n仅有的两种同时随预期通胀和意外通胀而变动的资产类别都是黄金和房地产，尽管这种联动的相当一部分可以用1970年代来解释。虽然房地产是一种更好的对冲预期通胀的工具，但黄金在抵御意外通胀方面做得更好。\n受通胀影响最严重的资产类别是国债和公司债券，但意外通胀造成的损害远大于预期通胀。\n股票和预期通胀几乎不相关，但股票与意外通胀的相关性为负，尽管比债券表现出的弱且在统计上不显著。\n最后，虽然通胀较高时价值溢价更大，但结果在统计上并不显着，这表明其他力量在该溢价消失的过程中发挥了更大的作用。\n是否有一些行业比其他行业更能抵御通胀？为了研究这个问题，我研究了广泛的行业分类，并结合通胀数据估计了几十年来的年回报率：\n\n唯一似乎与通胀有关的行业是能源，它不仅在1970年代随着油价飙升而表现出色，而且在另一个高通胀十年1940年代也表现出色，但在2010年至2019年期间表现不佳，因为通胀降至历史水平低点。\n由于通胀是货币特有的，因此还有另一种途径可以保护通胀，但只有在通货膨胀仅限于美国的情况下才可行。\n如果其他国家的通货膨胀率仍然较低，无论是因为他们有更谨慎的央行行长，或者因为他们的经济仍然疲软，你可以预期他们的货币相对于美元将升值，并且他们的股票和债券市场表现不佳。\n但鉴于世界各地的央行行长行为都很相似，我不敢肯定我会押注于这种可能性。\n四、现在怎么办？\n你可以就这篇文章提出自己的结论，但这里是我们立场的总结：\n1、通胀又回来了\n毫无疑问，我们现在看到的通胀率比近十年更高，包括报告数据（CPI、PPI和GDP平减指数）、通胀预期（来自国债市场和调查）和商品市场。\n2、不清楚它是暂时的还是永久性的\n投资者和央行之间的争论是，通胀飙升是否反映了经济停摆带来的复苏，一旦形势稳定下来，经济停摆是会消失，还是将在过去十年中异常低通胀的基础上永久性增长。恐怕只有时间才能回答这个问题。\n如果今年夏天经济走强，通胀继续超过预期，我认为答案就在我们面前。\n3、回归正常\n如果部分或全部通胀上升是永久性的，并且我们正在恢复到更正常的通胀水平（2-3%），那么随着利率上升和股票价格重新调整，故事将会有一个调整，甚至可能是痛苦的。\n你仍然可以找到更有能力应对更高通胀的股票板块，大宗商品公司和具有显著定价能力的公司比其他市场拥有更好的价值。\n4、突破的可能性很大\n如果它是永久性的，并且我们看到通货膨胀率上升到1970年代和1980年代以来的最高水平（>5%），股票和债券将不得不大幅重新定价。\n投资者不仅需要将资金从金融资产转移到实物资产和收藏品中，而且根据当前的低利率选择较多借贷的公司和个人也将面临违约风险清算。\n5、美联储必须做好准备\n美联储理应走在通胀游戏的前面。由于通胀上升到危险水平的可能性是不小的，在我看来，美联储无论如何都应该停止谈论通胀可控和利率保持低位的乐观情绪。\n对于那些急于否定通货膨胀的人来说，请记住，通货膨胀是阴险狡猾的，在可控的情况下是良性的，但在不可控的情况下，却是一种破坏性的力量，是一个应该放在瓶子里的妖怪。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1040,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":190283156,"gmtCreate":1620623618275,"gmtModify":1634197591183,"author":{"id":"3573119962682037","authorId":"3573119962682037","name":"FreedomKim","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4300b07a250f193db050a2a7c7e36dfd","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3573119962682037","idStr":"3573119962682037"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"不错的分析","listText":"不错的分析","text":"不错的分析","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/190283156","repostId":"1126675182","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":249,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":357150480,"gmtCreate":1617249227740,"gmtModify":1631885037805,"author":{"id":"3573119962682037","authorId":"3573119962682037","name":"FreedomKim","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4300b07a250f193db050a2a7c7e36dfd","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3573119962682037","idStr":"3573119962682037"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"28nm 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多久才能追台积电？","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/357150480","repostId":"1161441346","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":425,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":355243216,"gmtCreate":1617079221735,"gmtModify":1634522771961,"author":{"id":"3573119962682037","authorId":"3573119962682037","name":"FreedomKim","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4300b07a250f193db050a2a7c7e36dfd","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3573119962682037","idStr":"3573119962682037"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Ark","listText":"Ark","text":"Ark","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/355243216","repostId":"2123790280","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":236,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":327760798,"gmtCreate":1616126832214,"gmtModify":1631891020065,"author":{"id":"3573119962682037","authorId":"3573119962682037","name":"FreedomKim","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4300b07a250f193db050a2a7c7e36dfd","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3573119962682037","authorIdStr":"3573119962682037"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/8IH.AU\">$8I Holdings Ltd(8IH.AU)$</a>&nbsp;who pump money in?&nbsp;","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/8IH.AU\">$8I Holdings Ltd(8IH.AU)$</a>&nbsp;who pump money in?&nbsp;","text":"$8I Holdings Ltd(8IH.AU)$ who pump money in?","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/671e2962f2c08b8756a2bbcb649f9b6d","width":"1080","height":"1920"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/327760798","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":429,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":150797048,"gmtCreate":1624927073084,"gmtModify":1631891020025,"author":{"id":"3573119962682037","authorId":"3573119962682037","name":"FreedomKim","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4300b07a250f193db050a2a7c7e36dfd","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3573119962682037","authorIdStr":"3573119962682037"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/8IH.AU\">$8I Holdings Ltd(8IH.AU)$</a>&nbsp;why keep shares buy back after price has rally up recently. Still undervalue?&nbsp;","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/8IH.AU\">$8I Holdings Ltd(8IH.AU)$</a>&nbsp;why keep shares buy back after price has rally up recently. Still undervalue?&nbsp;","text":"$8I Holdings Ltd(8IH.AU)$ why keep shares buy back after price has rally up recently. Still undervalue?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/150797048","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":442,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":382530252,"gmtCreate":1613464404076,"gmtModify":1631891020067,"author":{"id":"3573119962682037","authorId":"3573119962682037","name":"FreedomKim","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4300b07a250f193db050a2a7c7e36dfd","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3573119962682037","authorIdStr":"3573119962682037"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/8IH.AU\">$8I Holdings Ltd(8IH.AU)$</a>&nbsp;market cap is just AUD70million, compare to 8VI market cap OF AUD 130million. 8IH own 80% of 8VI.","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/8IH.AU\">$8I Holdings Ltd(8IH.AU)$</a>&nbsp;market cap is just AUD70million, compare to 8VI market cap OF AUD 130million. 8IH own 80% of 8VI.","text":"$8I Holdings Ltd(8IH.AU)$ market cap is just AUD70million, compare to 8VI market cap OF AUD 130million. 8IH own 80% of 8VI.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/382530252","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":131,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":149815550,"gmtCreate":1625714184770,"gmtModify":1631893592661,"author":{"id":"3573119962682037","authorId":"3573119962682037","name":"FreedomKim","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4300b07a250f193db050a2a7c7e36dfd","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3573119962682037","authorIdStr":"3573119962682037"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"小鹏第一","listText":"小鹏第一","text":"小鹏第一","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/149815550","repostId":"2149122083","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":928,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":164132519,"gmtCreate":1624178867531,"gmtModify":1634009740876,"author":{"id":"3573119962682037","authorId":"3573119962682037","name":"FreedomKim","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4300b07a250f193db050a2a7c7e36dfd","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3573119962682037","authorIdStr":"3573119962682037"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Be the lemming with life jacket","listText":"Be the lemming with life jacket","text":"Be the lemming with life jacket","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/164132519","repostId":"1126454279","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1126454279","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1624151746,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1126454279?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-20 09:15","market":"us","language":"en","title":"A Stock Market Crash Is Coming: 5 High-Conviction Stocks to Buy Hand Over Fist When It Happens","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1126454279","media":"fool","summary":"It might be the last thing you want to hear, but it's the truth:A stock market crash is inevitable.\n","content":"<p>It might be the last thing you want to hear, but it's the truth:A stock market crash is inevitable.</p>\n<p>Since the March 23, 2020 bottom, investors have enjoyed a historically strong bounce-back rally -- the widely followed<b>S&amp;P 500</b>(SNPINDEX:^GSPC)has gained an impressive 90%. But both history and valuation metrics unequivocally suggest that a big drop is upcoming for the stock market.</p>\n<p><b>History is pretty clear that trouble lies ahead</b></p>\n<p>For example, there have beenone or two double-digit percentage declineswithin the three years following a bottom in each of the previous eight bear markets prior to the coronavirus crash (i.e., dating back to 1960). Although bull markets tend to last years, rebounds from a bear market are never this smooth. We're nearly 15 months past the March 2020 bear-market bottom in the S&amp;P 500 and have yet to see anything close to a double-digit correction.</p>\n<p>To add to this point, data from market analytics firm Yardeni Research shows that there have been 38 double-digit declines in the S&amp;P 500 over the past 71 years. That's a crash or correction, on average,every 1.87 years. Though the market doesn't adhere to averages, it does give a general sense of when to expect these hiccups.</p>\n<p>On a valuation basis, the S&amp;P 500's Shiller price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is a waving red flag. The S&amp;P 500's Shiller P/E -- a measure of inflation-adjusted earnings over the previous 10 years -- almost hit 38 earlier this week. That more than doubles its 151-year average, and it's the highest level in nearly two decades. The previous four times the Shiller P/E surpassed and held above 30 during a bull market rally, the indexsubsequently declined by a minimum of 20%.</p>\n<p>Make no mistake about it -- a stock market crash is coming.</p>\n<p>Every crash or correction is an opportunity for patient investors to make money</p>\n<p>However, a crash is no reason to duck and cover. While history may signal trouble ahead, it also tells us that each and every double-digit decline has been a buying opportunity. Eventually, every big drop in the major indexes is erased by a bull-market rally. When the next crash does occur, the following five high-conviction stocks can be confidently bought hand over fist.</p>\n<p><b>CrowdStrike Holdings</b></p>\n<p>Cybersecurity is projected to beone of the safest double-digit growth trendsthis decade. No matter the size of the business or the state of the U.S./global economy, protecting enterprise and consumer data is paramount. This means cloud-based cybersecurity stock<b>CrowdStrike Holdings</b>(NASDAQ:CRWD)can thrive in any environment.</p>\n<p>CrowdStrike's successderives from its cloud-native Falcon security platform. Because it's built in the cloud and relies on artificial intelligence, it's growing smarter at identifying and responding to threats all the time. It's currently overseeing 6 trillion events on a weekly basis, and it's far more cost-effective at protecting data than on-premise solutions.</p>\n<p>We can also look to the company's income statements to see clear-cut evidence that businesses favor CrowdStrike's cybersecurity platform. It's been retaining 98% of its clients, has seen existing clients spend 23% to 47% more on a year-over-year basis for the past 12 quarters, and recently reported that 64% of its customers have purchased at least four cloud module subscriptions. Scaling with its customers is CrowdStrike's ticket to big-time cash flow expansion.</p>\n<p><b>Facebook</b></p>\n<p>Brand-name businesses can make patient investors a fortune, and social media giant<b>Facebook</b>(NASDAQ:FB)is the perfect example.</p>\n<p>When the curtain closed on March, Facebook tallied 2.85 billion monthly active users (MAU) visiting its namesake site and an additional 600 million unique MAUs visiting WhatsApp or Instagram, which it also owns. All told, this equates to44% of the global populationinteracting with its owned sites each month. There's simply no social media platform businesses can go to get their message to a broader (or potentially targeted) audience, which is why Facebook ad-pricing power is so strong.</p>\n<p>But here's the kicker: Facebookhasn't even put the pedal to the metal. Although it's on track to generate more than $100 billion in advertising revenue in 2021, nearly all of these ad sales are coming from its namesake site and Instagram. WhatsApp and Facebook Messenger, which are two of the six most-visited social sites in the world, aren't being meaningfully monetized as of yet. Further, the company's Oculus virtual reality devices are still in the early stage of their growth. Suffice it to say, Facebook offers ample upside as its other operating segments are monetized and mature.</p>\n<p><b>NextEra Energy</b></p>\n<p>Another high-conviction stock to buy hand over fist the next time a crash or steep correction strikes is electric utility stock<b>NextEra Energy</b>(NYSE:NEE).</p>\n<p>Did I put you to sleep when I said \"electric utility stock?\" Electric utilities are traditionally known for their market-topping dividend yields and persistently low growth rates. But this doesn't describe NextEra Energy. NextEra has aggressively invested in renewable energy projects and is leading the country in solar and wind capacity. As a result of these investments, its electric generation costs have declined and its compound annual growth ratehas consistently been in the high single digitsfor more than a decade. It also doesn't hurt that NextEra is front-running any potential green-energy legislation that might come out of Washington.</p>\n<p>In addition to growth rates that are well above the sector average, NextEra still benefits from the predictability of energy demand. For instance, its regulated utilities (i.e., those not powered by renewable energy) require approval from state utility commissions before price hikes can be passed along to households. This might sound like an inconvenience, but it's actually great news. It means NextEra won't be exposed to potentially volatile wholesale pricing.</p>\n<p><b>Visa</b></p>\n<p>When the next stock market crash arrives, payment processing kingpin<b>Visa</b>(NYSE:V)is a winning company to confidently buy hand over fist. It's also another brand-name company thatcan still make its shareholders a fortune.</p>\n<p>Buying into the Visa growth story is a simple numbers game. Visa grows its revenue and profits when consumers and businesses are spending more. This happens when the U.S. and global economy are expanding. Although contractions and recessions are an inevitable part of the economic cycle, they tend to be short-lived. Meanwhile, periods of economic expansion are almost always measured in years. Buying into Visa during these short-lived crashes or corrections should allow long-term investors to be handsomely rewarded by this numbers game.</p>\n<p>The other interesting thing about Visa is thatit's shunned becoming a lender. You'd think that Visa could generate big bucks from interest income and fees by lending during these long-lived periods of expansion. But lending would also expose Visa to the credit delinquencies that arise during recessions. Operating solely as a payment processor means not having to set aside cash to cover delinquencies. It's why Visa rebounds so much faster than most financial stocks following a recession.</p>\n<p><b>Amazon</b></p>\n<p>Lastly (andwho couldn't see this coming?), investors should take any discount they can get during a crash on e-commerce behemoth<b>Amazon</b>(NASDAQ:AMZN).</p>\n<p>Amazon's online marketplace has proved virtually unstoppable for well over a decade. An April 2021 report from eMarketer pegged the company's share of U.S. online sales at 40.4%. That more than quintuples its next-closest competitor and effectively solidifies Amazon as the go-to source for online shopping in the U.S.</p>\n<p>What about those pesky low retail margins, you ask? Amazon has signed up more than 200 million people globally to a Prime membership. The fees collected from Prime members help to offset some of the company's retail-based margin weakness. Prime members are extremely loyal to the Amazon ecosystem and spend far more than non-members, too.</p>\n<p>But it's Amazon's cloud infrastructure segmentthat's the superstar. Amazon Web Services (AWS) brings in around one-eighth of the company's total sales but accounts for well over half its operating income. Since cloud margins are superior to retail and advertising margins, AWS is the company's key to explosive cash flow growth this decade.</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>A Stock Market Crash Is Coming: 5 High-Conviction Stocks to Buy Hand Over Fist When It Happens</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nA Stock Market Crash Is Coming: 5 High-Conviction Stocks to Buy Hand Over Fist When It Happens\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-06-20 09:15 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/06/19/stock-market-crash-coming-5-high-conviction-stocks/><strong>fool</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>It might be the last thing you want to hear, but it's the truth:A stock market crash is inevitable.\nSince the March 23, 2020 bottom, investors have enjoyed a historically strong bounce-back rally -- ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/06/19/stock-market-crash-coming-5-high-conviction-stocks/\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"CRWD":"CrowdStrike Holdings, Inc.","NEP":"Nextera Energy Partners","V":"Visa","AMZN":"亚马逊"},"source_url":"https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/06/19/stock-market-crash-coming-5-high-conviction-stocks/","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1126454279","content_text":"It might be the last thing you want to hear, but it's the truth:A stock market crash is inevitable.\nSince the March 23, 2020 bottom, investors have enjoyed a historically strong bounce-back rally -- the widely followedS&P 500(SNPINDEX:^GSPC)has gained an impressive 90%. But both history and valuation metrics unequivocally suggest that a big drop is upcoming for the stock market.\nHistory is pretty clear that trouble lies ahead\nFor example, there have beenone or two double-digit percentage declineswithin the three years following a bottom in each of the previous eight bear markets prior to the coronavirus crash (i.e., dating back to 1960). Although bull markets tend to last years, rebounds from a bear market are never this smooth. We're nearly 15 months past the March 2020 bear-market bottom in the S&P 500 and have yet to see anything close to a double-digit correction.\nTo add to this point, data from market analytics firm Yardeni Research shows that there have been 38 double-digit declines in the S&P 500 over the past 71 years. That's a crash or correction, on average,every 1.87 years. Though the market doesn't adhere to averages, it does give a general sense of when to expect these hiccups.\nOn a valuation basis, the S&P 500's Shiller price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is a waving red flag. The S&P 500's Shiller P/E -- a measure of inflation-adjusted earnings over the previous 10 years -- almost hit 38 earlier this week. That more than doubles its 151-year average, and it's the highest level in nearly two decades. The previous four times the Shiller P/E surpassed and held above 30 during a bull market rally, the indexsubsequently declined by a minimum of 20%.\nMake no mistake about it -- a stock market crash is coming.\nEvery crash or correction is an opportunity for patient investors to make money\nHowever, a crash is no reason to duck and cover. While history may signal trouble ahead, it also tells us that each and every double-digit decline has been a buying opportunity. Eventually, every big drop in the major indexes is erased by a bull-market rally. When the next crash does occur, the following five high-conviction stocks can be confidently bought hand over fist.\nCrowdStrike Holdings\nCybersecurity is projected to beone of the safest double-digit growth trendsthis decade. No matter the size of the business or the state of the U.S./global economy, protecting enterprise and consumer data is paramount. This means cloud-based cybersecurity stockCrowdStrike Holdings(NASDAQ:CRWD)can thrive in any environment.\nCrowdStrike's successderives from its cloud-native Falcon security platform. Because it's built in the cloud and relies on artificial intelligence, it's growing smarter at identifying and responding to threats all the time. It's currently overseeing 6 trillion events on a weekly basis, and it's far more cost-effective at protecting data than on-premise solutions.\nWe can also look to the company's income statements to see clear-cut evidence that businesses favor CrowdStrike's cybersecurity platform. It's been retaining 98% of its clients, has seen existing clients spend 23% to 47% more on a year-over-year basis for the past 12 quarters, and recently reported that 64% of its customers have purchased at least four cloud module subscriptions. Scaling with its customers is CrowdStrike's ticket to big-time cash flow expansion.\nFacebook\nBrand-name businesses can make patient investors a fortune, and social media giantFacebook(NASDAQ:FB)is the perfect example.\nWhen the curtain closed on March, Facebook tallied 2.85 billion monthly active users (MAU) visiting its namesake site and an additional 600 million unique MAUs visiting WhatsApp or Instagram, which it also owns. All told, this equates to44% of the global populationinteracting with its owned sites each month. There's simply no social media platform businesses can go to get their message to a broader (or potentially targeted) audience, which is why Facebook ad-pricing power is so strong.\nBut here's the kicker: Facebookhasn't even put the pedal to the metal. Although it's on track to generate more than $100 billion in advertising revenue in 2021, nearly all of these ad sales are coming from its namesake site and Instagram. WhatsApp and Facebook Messenger, which are two of the six most-visited social sites in the world, aren't being meaningfully monetized as of yet. Further, the company's Oculus virtual reality devices are still in the early stage of their growth. Suffice it to say, Facebook offers ample upside as its other operating segments are monetized and mature.\nNextEra Energy\nAnother high-conviction stock to buy hand over fist the next time a crash or steep correction strikes is electric utility stockNextEra Energy(NYSE:NEE).\nDid I put you to sleep when I said \"electric utility stock?\" Electric utilities are traditionally known for their market-topping dividend yields and persistently low growth rates. But this doesn't describe NextEra Energy. NextEra has aggressively invested in renewable energy projects and is leading the country in solar and wind capacity. As a result of these investments, its electric generation costs have declined and its compound annual growth ratehas consistently been in the high single digitsfor more than a decade. It also doesn't hurt that NextEra is front-running any potential green-energy legislation that might come out of Washington.\nIn addition to growth rates that are well above the sector average, NextEra still benefits from the predictability of energy demand. For instance, its regulated utilities (i.e., those not powered by renewable energy) require approval from state utility commissions before price hikes can be passed along to households. This might sound like an inconvenience, but it's actually great news. It means NextEra won't be exposed to potentially volatile wholesale pricing.\nVisa\nWhen the next stock market crash arrives, payment processing kingpinVisa(NYSE:V)is a winning company to confidently buy hand over fist. It's also another brand-name company thatcan still make its shareholders a fortune.\nBuying into the Visa growth story is a simple numbers game. Visa grows its revenue and profits when consumers and businesses are spending more. This happens when the U.S. and global economy are expanding. Although contractions and recessions are an inevitable part of the economic cycle, they tend to be short-lived. Meanwhile, periods of economic expansion are almost always measured in years. Buying into Visa during these short-lived crashes or corrections should allow long-term investors to be handsomely rewarded by this numbers game.\nThe other interesting thing about Visa is thatit's shunned becoming a lender. You'd think that Visa could generate big bucks from interest income and fees by lending during these long-lived periods of expansion. But lending would also expose Visa to the credit delinquencies that arise during recessions. Operating solely as a payment processor means not having to set aside cash to cover delinquencies. It's why Visa rebounds so much faster than most financial stocks following a recession.\nAmazon\nLastly (andwho couldn't see this coming?), investors should take any discount they can get during a crash on e-commerce behemothAmazon(NASDAQ:AMZN).\nAmazon's online marketplace has proved virtually unstoppable for well over a decade. An April 2021 report from eMarketer pegged the company's share of U.S. online sales at 40.4%. That more than quintuples its next-closest competitor and effectively solidifies Amazon as the go-to source for online shopping in the U.S.\nWhat about those pesky low retail margins, you ask? Amazon has signed up more than 200 million people globally to a Prime membership. The fees collected from Prime members help to offset some of the company's retail-based margin weakness. Prime members are extremely loyal to the Amazon ecosystem and spend far more than non-members, too.\nBut it's Amazon's cloud infrastructure segmentthat's the superstar. Amazon Web Services (AWS) brings in around one-eighth of the company's total sales but accounts for well over half its operating income. Since cloud margins are superior to retail and advertising margins, AWS is the company's key to explosive cash flow growth this decade.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":140,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":124408630,"gmtCreate":1624776402120,"gmtModify":1633948697749,"author":{"id":"3573119962682037","authorId":"3573119962682037","name":"FreedomKim","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4300b07a250f193db050a2a7c7e36dfd","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3573119962682037","authorIdStr":"3573119962682037"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Invest the undervalue and just wait.&nbsp;","listText":"Invest the undervalue and just wait.&nbsp;","text":"Invest the undervalue and just wait.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/124408630","repostId":"1164137597","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1164137597","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1624671774,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1164137597?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-26 09:42","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Alibaba: Can BABA Get Back To $300? Yes, It Can","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1164137597","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"The recent downturn in Alibaba's share price has created an investment opportunity for long-term capital appreciation.The Chinese economy is expected to become the world's largest economy by 2028 and more than 500 million people will be part of the middle class by end of 2023.Alibaba will experience tailwinds from individuals and businesses spending more money during this period of growth in China.Alibaba is the dominant force in cloud services in China which could become a significant revenue g","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p>\n<ul>\n <li>The recent downturn in Alibaba's share price has created an investment opportunity for long-term capital appreciation.</li>\n <li>The Chinese economy is expected to become the world's largest economy by 2028 and more than 500 million people will be part of the middle class by end of 2023.</li>\n <li>Alibaba will experience tailwinds from individuals and businesses spending more money during this period of growth in China.</li>\n <li>Alibaba is the dominant force in cloud services in China which could become a significant revenue growth machine as the economy expands.</li>\n</ul>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/814b0a9a0d17977f43665e2eba205b1e\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1024\"><span>Andrew Braun/iStock Editorial via Getty Images</span></p>\n<p>Alibaba(NYSE:BABA)operates a printing press that keeps spitting out tens of billions from total revenue down to net income. Many companies faced adversity throughout the pandemic, and some are still recovering, but not BABA. Through the worst economic environment for businesses to navigate in recent times, BABA generated over $100 billion in revenue and $20 billion in net income during their recent fiscal year. While BABA didn't get the memo about businesses facing challenges amidst the pandemic, the market must not have read BABA's earnings report or crunched the numbers.</p>\n<p>There are two Chinese companies I am bullish on, and BABA is my biggest conviction for appreciation. BABA smashed through the $300 share price level at the end of October 2020, but shareholders have been left confused and disappointed since then. It looked like BABA would turn the corner after a horrible end to 2020 as shares appreciated from $222.36 from the close of 2020 to $270.83 in the middle of February 2021. Still, the markets had other plans, and all shares of BABA have done is disappoint shareholders. If you missed the BABA train, it's time to grab your tickets and climb aboard, and if you purchased BABA during its run to $300 or early 2021 rebound, it might be time to add to your holdings. BABA is going to experience tremendous tailwinds from China's population and economic growth over the next several years, and their printing press is going to need more ink.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/86da7b532f25f563d08490ddc43cbede\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"337\"><span>(Source: Alibaba)</span></p>\n<p><b>The Alibaba printing press is open for business, and it spits out billions</b></p>\n<p>How many companies can say their annual revenue through the pandemic exceeded $100 billion? The $100 billion revenue mark is a prestigious club that companies such as&nbsp;Facebook (FB),PepsiCo (PEP),Procter &amp; Gamble (PG),Target (TGT), and&nbsp;Johnson &amp; Johnson (JNJ)&nbsp;are not part of. BABA, on the other hand, witnessed its revenue increase by 52.11% and smash through $100 billion as they generated $109.47 billion in their recent fiscal year. For the year ending March 2019, BABA's revenue increased by $16.25 billion (40.74%) to $56.15 billion, then for the March 2020 fiscal year, revenue increased another $15.82 billion (28.17%) to $71.97 billion. BABA is in the same boat as Alphabet(NASDAQ:GOOG)(GOOGL), FB, and Amazon (AMZN) as they watched the pandemic push more people to go digital which accelerated their businesses. For BABA, the forced transition to digital helped them achieve $37.5 billion (52.11%) in additional revenue as they finished their March 2021 fiscal year with $109.47 billion in revenue.</p>\n<p>Since 2013 BABA has not had a year where their annual revenue increase didn't exceed 25% Year over Year (YoY). When you think about that as a growth rate, it's remarkable for a company of BABA's size as this isn't a company chasing its first billion-dollar revenue year. Over the past 5 fiscal years, BABA's annual revenue has increased by $93.8 billion (408.08%) at an average annual rate of 48.25%. Smaller companies considered growth companies would be jealous of these rates, while many large caps are probably envious.</p>\n<p>BABA isn't a one-trick pony that can only generate tens of billions in revenue. BABA can convert right down to the bottom line. Each year BABA has increased its YoY gross profit by a minimum of 10% since 2013. In 2016 BABA generated $10.35 billion in gross profit and, over the next 5 fiscal years, increased its annual gross profit by $34.84 billion (336.68%). BABA has also never fallen below a 40% gross profit margin, Warren Buffett's magic number, as he indicates in<i>Warren Buffett and the Interpretation of Financial Statements. On page 34 of the Kindle edition,it says:</i></p>\n<blockquote>\n As a very general rule (and there are exceptions): Companies with gross profit margins of 40% or better tend to be companies with some sort of durable competitive advantage. Companies with gross profit margins below 40% tend to be companies in highly competitive industries, where competition is hurting overall profit margins (there are exceptions here, too).\n</blockquote>\n<p>The gross profit margin is important for investors to evaluate because it reveals how much of a company's revenue goes directly to producing it and if they have a moat around their business. BABA's numbers indicate they have a sufficient moat around their business that is hard to penetrate. With close to a decade of generating over 40% in gross profit margins, investors can expect that BABA's moat will protect its business operations for years to come.</p>\n<p>Moving to the bottom line BABA does a great job at generating profits. In their most recent fiscal year, BABA generated $22.98 billion in net income, converting more than 1/5th (20.99%) of their revenue to pure profits. Since 2013 BABA has only had 1 year where net income decreases YoY. With that track record, many options open up for BABA in the future as their cash stockpile continues to increase.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/41a5e036f023fa4ced7666e06aa1de6b\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"444\"><span>(Source: Alibaba)</span></p>\n<p><b>Alibaba will continue to experience tailwinds as China's population and economy expands</b></p>\n<p>Alibaba&nbsp;achieved one billion annual active consumers globally in the fiscal year that ended in March 2021. BABA has 891 million consumers across China's retail marketplace, local consumer services and digital media and entertainment platforms, and approximately 240 million consumers outside China. BABA's annual active consumers in the China retail marketplaces were 811 million as it grew by 85 million YoY. BABA will focus on developing a digital commerce infrastructure that offers an upgraded consumer experience by seamlessly integrating online and offline. Through BABA's infrastructure, countless retailers have digitally transformed their businesses and created multiple retail formats that have enabled new consumption experiences by leveraging consumer insights and technology. BABA's ecosystem, supply chain, and diversified fulfillment services have facilitated an immense digital transformation. By investing in its infrastructure, BABA's customers can now leverage a full range of high-frequency fulfillment services that include on-demand delivery, same-or-next day delivery, and next-day pick-up services for a full range of consumable and physical products.</p>\n<p>BABA will continue to be one of the cornerstones that supports growth within China's economy, which is benefiting from the acceleration of digitalization in all aspects of life and work. China is projected to be the world's largest economy by 2028. The per-capita income in China is expected to grow by roughly 50% from 2020 to 2025.China's average economic growth&nbsp;has been projected to increase at a rate of 5.7% from 2021 to 2025, then slow to 4.5% from 2026 to 2030. As a result,China&nbsp;is on track to join the top 1/3rd of nations and overtake 56 countries in the per capita income rankings by 2025. By the end of 2022, McKinsey&nbsp;predicts&nbsp;that the middle class could expand to 550 million people which is larger than the entire U.S population.</p>\n<p>If the projections for China are correct, this should mean a windfall of cash lining BABA's coffers. It's a simple recipe; when people make more money, they tend to spend more money to enhance their lives and increase their standard of living. As BABA is a dominant force in China's retail sector, they stand to benefit from a growing economy and a larger middle class. At the end of next year, if China has anywhere close to 550 million individuals in the middle class, I believe BABA's revenue and profits will increase significantly. This trend can provide tailwinds throughout the decade for BABA, and eventually, the market will reward shareholders based on BABA's value proposition.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bbde4a092d19118a2d16daabf5c027d7\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"463\"><span>(Source: Blomberg)</span></p>\n<p><b>Alibaba has tremendous growth prospects in Cloud as China continues its digitization</b></p>\n<p>Cloud computing has been red hot in the U.S. as the transition from on-prem to cloud has increased the technological capabilities for many organizations. As digitization progresses across the business landscape, cloud providers continue to increase revenue generated from their cloud segments within their overall revenue mix. For example, AWS, the cloud computing division from&nbsp;AMZN, generated $45.37 billion in 2020. Cloud continues to be an exciting sector because the digital transformation is far from being over. Hence, the prospects of new customers are enormous while reoccurring revenue is generated after the transition occurs.</p>\n<p>In China, cloud infrastructure services are still in the early innings as the entire spend was around $15 billion in 2020. In Q1 of 2021, cloud infrastructure services in&nbsp;China&nbsp;grew by 55% YoY as it reached $6 billion. China was the 2nd largest market behind the U.S, accounting for 14% of global investment, up from 12% in Q1 of 2020. With cloud spending and digitization in China increasing, this serves as a major runway for growth in Alibaba Cloud.</p>\n<p>As China's economy expands, businesses will need to become more efficient to support both operations and customer demands. Chinese companies will need to implement infrastructure that can support a digital age of the workforce while supporting cloud services used by consumers for consumption. If China passes the U.S. as the world's largest economy in the second half of this decade, the amount of growth needed in cloud services will be immense. BABA is already the leader in cloud infrastructure services in China as their 39.8% market share accounted for $2.39 billion of the $6 billion spent in Q1 2021. Over the previous 6 quarters, cloud infrastructure spending has increased by roughly $2.3 billion (76.67%) in China. Based on cloud's current trajectory, quarterly revenue is on track to double over the next 2 years, putting Q1 2023 revenue at $10.6 billion. If BABA has a 35% market share, their Q1 2023 would be $3.71 billion, placing their 2023 revenue for cloud at $14.84 billion without factoring in any growth in 2023. From a cloud aspect, China's future spending is very exciting, and BABA will be one of the major benefactors.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1759b81ce463d503a165d901e2e50d7c\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"728\"><span>(Source: Canalys)</span></p>\n<p><b>Alibaba has stellar financial metrics and is undervalued compared to the U.S. tech conglomerates</b></p>\n<p>For this comparison, I am going to use AMZN and GOOGL as they have been establishing their dominance in the U.S. for more than a decade. First, here are the raw numbers for AMZN, BABA, and GOOGL:</p>\n<ul>\n <li>AMZN</li>\n <li>BABA</li>\n <li>GOOGL</li>\n</ul>\n<p>The market currently places a multiple of 17.03x on AMZN's equity compared to its market cap, while its revenue multiple is 4.2x. GOOGL has a multiple of 7.17x on its equity and 8.39x on its revenue compared to market cap. AMZN and GOOGL's market caps exceed $1.5 trillion, while BABA's sits at $575.57 billion. The market is placing a 3.5x multiple on BABA's equity and 5.26x on its revenue compared to the market cap. Thus, the market is severely discounting BABA's equity and revenue generation. BABA's equity is worth 28.58% of its market cap, while AMZN's equity is equivalent to 5.87%, and GOOGL's is 13.94% of its market cap. The current discount placed on BABA's equity could create an additional tailwind for shareholders in the future.</p>\n<p><b>Conclusion</b></p>\n<p>It's hard to dismiss the growth opportunities some companies in China are presenting, especially after the recent decline in share prices. However, I believe shares of BABA are currently undervalued based on their current financial metrics and growth rates. China's economy and the amount of capital allocated to cloud service infrastructure are expected to grow substantially over the years. These will create powerful tailwinds for BABA throughout this decade. As a result, I think shareholders have been allowed to establish a BABA or dollar cost average position at a discounted price. I plan on continuing to add shares to my position while the market is discounting BABA.</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Alibaba: Can BABA Get Back To $300? Yes, It Can</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nAlibaba: Can BABA Get Back To $300? Yes, It Can\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-06-26 09:42 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4436373-alibaba-can-get-back-to-300><strong>seekingalpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Summary\n\nThe recent downturn in Alibaba's share price has created an investment opportunity for long-term capital appreciation.\nThe Chinese economy is expected to become the world's largest economy by...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4436373-alibaba-can-get-back-to-300\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"BABA":"阿里巴巴"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4436373-alibaba-can-get-back-to-300","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1164137597","content_text":"Summary\n\nThe recent downturn in Alibaba's share price has created an investment opportunity for long-term capital appreciation.\nThe Chinese economy is expected to become the world's largest economy by 2028 and more than 500 million people will be part of the middle class by end of 2023.\nAlibaba will experience tailwinds from individuals and businesses spending more money during this period of growth in China.\nAlibaba is the dominant force in cloud services in China which could become a significant revenue growth machine as the economy expands.\n\nAndrew Braun/iStock Editorial via Getty Images\nAlibaba(NYSE:BABA)operates a printing press that keeps spitting out tens of billions from total revenue down to net income. Many companies faced adversity throughout the pandemic, and some are still recovering, but not BABA. Through the worst economic environment for businesses to navigate in recent times, BABA generated over $100 billion in revenue and $20 billion in net income during their recent fiscal year. While BABA didn't get the memo about businesses facing challenges amidst the pandemic, the market must not have read BABA's earnings report or crunched the numbers.\nThere are two Chinese companies I am bullish on, and BABA is my biggest conviction for appreciation. BABA smashed through the $300 share price level at the end of October 2020, but shareholders have been left confused and disappointed since then. It looked like BABA would turn the corner after a horrible end to 2020 as shares appreciated from $222.36 from the close of 2020 to $270.83 in the middle of February 2021. Still, the markets had other plans, and all shares of BABA have done is disappoint shareholders. If you missed the BABA train, it's time to grab your tickets and climb aboard, and if you purchased BABA during its run to $300 or early 2021 rebound, it might be time to add to your holdings. BABA is going to experience tremendous tailwinds from China's population and economic growth over the next several years, and their printing press is going to need more ink.\n(Source: Alibaba)\nThe Alibaba printing press is open for business, and it spits out billions\nHow many companies can say their annual revenue through the pandemic exceeded $100 billion? The $100 billion revenue mark is a prestigious club that companies such as Facebook (FB),PepsiCo (PEP),Procter & Gamble (PG),Target (TGT), and Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) are not part of. BABA, on the other hand, witnessed its revenue increase by 52.11% and smash through $100 billion as they generated $109.47 billion in their recent fiscal year. For the year ending March 2019, BABA's revenue increased by $16.25 billion (40.74%) to $56.15 billion, then for the March 2020 fiscal year, revenue increased another $15.82 billion (28.17%) to $71.97 billion. BABA is in the same boat as Alphabet(NASDAQ:GOOG)(GOOGL), FB, and Amazon (AMZN) as they watched the pandemic push more people to go digital which accelerated their businesses. For BABA, the forced transition to digital helped them achieve $37.5 billion (52.11%) in additional revenue as they finished their March 2021 fiscal year with $109.47 billion in revenue.\nSince 2013 BABA has not had a year where their annual revenue increase didn't exceed 25% Year over Year (YoY). When you think about that as a growth rate, it's remarkable for a company of BABA's size as this isn't a company chasing its first billion-dollar revenue year. Over the past 5 fiscal years, BABA's annual revenue has increased by $93.8 billion (408.08%) at an average annual rate of 48.25%. Smaller companies considered growth companies would be jealous of these rates, while many large caps are probably envious.\nBABA isn't a one-trick pony that can only generate tens of billions in revenue. BABA can convert right down to the bottom line. Each year BABA has increased its YoY gross profit by a minimum of 10% since 2013. In 2016 BABA generated $10.35 billion in gross profit and, over the next 5 fiscal years, increased its annual gross profit by $34.84 billion (336.68%). BABA has also never fallen below a 40% gross profit margin, Warren Buffett's magic number, as he indicates inWarren Buffett and the Interpretation of Financial Statements. On page 34 of the Kindle edition,it says:\n\n As a very general rule (and there are exceptions): Companies with gross profit margins of 40% or better tend to be companies with some sort of durable competitive advantage. Companies with gross profit margins below 40% tend to be companies in highly competitive industries, where competition is hurting overall profit margins (there are exceptions here, too).\n\nThe gross profit margin is important for investors to evaluate because it reveals how much of a company's revenue goes directly to producing it and if they have a moat around their business. BABA's numbers indicate they have a sufficient moat around their business that is hard to penetrate. With close to a decade of generating over 40% in gross profit margins, investors can expect that BABA's moat will protect its business operations for years to come.\nMoving to the bottom line BABA does a great job at generating profits. In their most recent fiscal year, BABA generated $22.98 billion in net income, converting more than 1/5th (20.99%) of their revenue to pure profits. Since 2013 BABA has only had 1 year where net income decreases YoY. With that track record, many options open up for BABA in the future as their cash stockpile continues to increase.\n(Source: Alibaba)\nAlibaba will continue to experience tailwinds as China's population and economy expands\nAlibaba achieved one billion annual active consumers globally in the fiscal year that ended in March 2021. BABA has 891 million consumers across China's retail marketplace, local consumer services and digital media and entertainment platforms, and approximately 240 million consumers outside China. BABA's annual active consumers in the China retail marketplaces were 811 million as it grew by 85 million YoY. BABA will focus on developing a digital commerce infrastructure that offers an upgraded consumer experience by seamlessly integrating online and offline. Through BABA's infrastructure, countless retailers have digitally transformed their businesses and created multiple retail formats that have enabled new consumption experiences by leveraging consumer insights and technology. BABA's ecosystem, supply chain, and diversified fulfillment services have facilitated an immense digital transformation. By investing in its infrastructure, BABA's customers can now leverage a full range of high-frequency fulfillment services that include on-demand delivery, same-or-next day delivery, and next-day pick-up services for a full range of consumable and physical products.\nBABA will continue to be one of the cornerstones that supports growth within China's economy, which is benefiting from the acceleration of digitalization in all aspects of life and work. China is projected to be the world's largest economy by 2028. The per-capita income in China is expected to grow by roughly 50% from 2020 to 2025.China's average economic growth has been projected to increase at a rate of 5.7% from 2021 to 2025, then slow to 4.5% from 2026 to 2030. As a result,China is on track to join the top 1/3rd of nations and overtake 56 countries in the per capita income rankings by 2025. By the end of 2022, McKinsey predicts that the middle class could expand to 550 million people which is larger than the entire U.S population.\nIf the projections for China are correct, this should mean a windfall of cash lining BABA's coffers. It's a simple recipe; when people make more money, they tend to spend more money to enhance their lives and increase their standard of living. As BABA is a dominant force in China's retail sector, they stand to benefit from a growing economy and a larger middle class. At the end of next year, if China has anywhere close to 550 million individuals in the middle class, I believe BABA's revenue and profits will increase significantly. This trend can provide tailwinds throughout the decade for BABA, and eventually, the market will reward shareholders based on BABA's value proposition.\n(Source: Blomberg)\nAlibaba has tremendous growth prospects in Cloud as China continues its digitization\nCloud computing has been red hot in the U.S. as the transition from on-prem to cloud has increased the technological capabilities for many organizations. As digitization progresses across the business landscape, cloud providers continue to increase revenue generated from their cloud segments within their overall revenue mix. For example, AWS, the cloud computing division from AMZN, generated $45.37 billion in 2020. Cloud continues to be an exciting sector because the digital transformation is far from being over. Hence, the prospects of new customers are enormous while reoccurring revenue is generated after the transition occurs.\nIn China, cloud infrastructure services are still in the early innings as the entire spend was around $15 billion in 2020. In Q1 of 2021, cloud infrastructure services in China grew by 55% YoY as it reached $6 billion. China was the 2nd largest market behind the U.S, accounting for 14% of global investment, up from 12% in Q1 of 2020. With cloud spending and digitization in China increasing, this serves as a major runway for growth in Alibaba Cloud.\nAs China's economy expands, businesses will need to become more efficient to support both operations and customer demands. Chinese companies will need to implement infrastructure that can support a digital age of the workforce while supporting cloud services used by consumers for consumption. If China passes the U.S. as the world's largest economy in the second half of this decade, the amount of growth needed in cloud services will be immense. BABA is already the leader in cloud infrastructure services in China as their 39.8% market share accounted for $2.39 billion of the $6 billion spent in Q1 2021. Over the previous 6 quarters, cloud infrastructure spending has increased by roughly $2.3 billion (76.67%) in China. Based on cloud's current trajectory, quarterly revenue is on track to double over the next 2 years, putting Q1 2023 revenue at $10.6 billion. If BABA has a 35% market share, their Q1 2023 would be $3.71 billion, placing their 2023 revenue for cloud at $14.84 billion without factoring in any growth in 2023. From a cloud aspect, China's future spending is very exciting, and BABA will be one of the major benefactors.\n(Source: Canalys)\nAlibaba has stellar financial metrics and is undervalued compared to the U.S. tech conglomerates\nFor this comparison, I am going to use AMZN and GOOGL as they have been establishing their dominance in the U.S. for more than a decade. First, here are the raw numbers for AMZN, BABA, and GOOGL:\n\nAMZN\nBABA\nGOOGL\n\nThe market currently places a multiple of 17.03x on AMZN's equity compared to its market cap, while its revenue multiple is 4.2x. GOOGL has a multiple of 7.17x on its equity and 8.39x on its revenue compared to market cap. AMZN and GOOGL's market caps exceed $1.5 trillion, while BABA's sits at $575.57 billion. The market is placing a 3.5x multiple on BABA's equity and 5.26x on its revenue compared to the market cap. Thus, the market is severely discounting BABA's equity and revenue generation. BABA's equity is worth 28.58% of its market cap, while AMZN's equity is equivalent to 5.87%, and GOOGL's is 13.94% of its market cap. The current discount placed on BABA's equity could create an additional tailwind for shareholders in the future.\nConclusion\nIt's hard to dismiss the growth opportunities some companies in China are presenting, especially after the recent decline in share prices. However, I believe shares of BABA are currently undervalued based on their current financial metrics and growth rates. China's economy and the amount of capital allocated to cloud service infrastructure are expected to grow substantially over the years. These will create powerful tailwinds for BABA throughout this decade. As a result, I think shareholders have been allowed to establish a BABA or dollar cost average position at a discounted price. I plan on continuing to add shares to my position while the market is discounting BABA.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":244,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":357150480,"gmtCreate":1617249227740,"gmtModify":1631885037805,"author":{"id":"3573119962682037","authorId":"3573119962682037","name":"FreedomKim","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4300b07a250f193db050a2a7c7e36dfd","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3573119962682037","authorIdStr":"3573119962682037"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"28nm 以下只有9.2％, 多久才能追台积电？","listText":"28nm 以下只有9.2％, 多久才能追台积电？","text":"28nm 以下只有9.2％, 多久才能追台积电？","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/357150480","repostId":"1161441346","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":425,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":355243216,"gmtCreate":1617079221735,"gmtModify":1634522771961,"author":{"id":"3573119962682037","authorId":"3573119962682037","name":"FreedomKim","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4300b07a250f193db050a2a7c7e36dfd","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3573119962682037","authorIdStr":"3573119962682037"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Ark","listText":"Ark","text":"Ark","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/355243216","repostId":"2123790280","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":236,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":327745021,"gmtCreate":1616130322963,"gmtModify":1634527075065,"author":{"id":"3573119962682037","authorId":"3573119962682037","name":"FreedomKim","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4300b07a250f193db050a2a7c7e36dfd","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3573119962682037","authorIdStr":"3573119962682037"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"More seeking alpha article. Thanks","listText":"More seeking alpha article. Thanks","text":"More seeking alpha article. Thanks","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/327745021","repostId":"1167332168","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1167332168","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1615992072,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1167332168?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-03-17 22:41","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Alibaba stocks advanced  more than 2%","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1167332168","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Alibaba plans to set up a version of its TaobaoDeals app that can operate on rival $Tencent$ 's WeChat socialnetwork in a concession to Chinese regulators cracking down on tech company overreach.Tencent will have to approve of the app before it appears on WeChat, which has more than one billion users and already offers online payment and ride-sharing services.Alibaba and Tencent are both in the crosshairs of Chinese regulators due to the former's ties to Jack Ma and his Ant Group fintech and the","content":"<p>(March 17)&nbsp;<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BABA\">Alibaba</a> stocks advanced&nbsp;&nbsp;more&nbsp;than&nbsp;2%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8ee99cf497f367f259eb1a8a4cc10198\" tg-width=\"685\" tg-height=\"496\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Alibaba&nbsp;plans to set up a version of its TaobaoDeals app that can operate on rival <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00700\">Tencent</a> 's WeChat socialnetwork in a concession to Chinese regulators cracking down on tech company overreach.</p><p><i>Bloomberg</i>sourcessay Alibaba has already started to invite some merchants to participate in the lite bargain app, which will also allow Alibaba merchants to accept WeChat Pay for the first time.</p><p>Tencent will have to approve of the app before it appears on WeChat, which has more than one billion users and already offers online payment and ride-sharing services.</p><p>Alibaba and Tencent are both in the crosshairs of Chinese regulators due to the former's ties to Jack Ma and his Ant Group fintech and the latter's participation in the payments industry.</p>","source":"seekingalpha","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Alibaba stocks advanced  more than 2%</title>\n<style 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margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nAlibaba stocks advanced  more than 2%\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-03-17 22:41 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/news/3673581-alibaba-stock-on-watch-as-company-eyes-tencent-related-antitrust-concession><strong>seekingalpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>(March 17) Alibaba stocks advanced  more than 2%.Alibaba plans to set up a version of its TaobaoDeals app that can operate on rival Tencent 's WeChat socialnetwork in a concession to Chinese ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/news/3673581-alibaba-stock-on-watch-as-company-eyes-tencent-related-antitrust-concession\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"BABA":"阿里巴巴","09988":"阿里巴巴-W"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/news/3673581-alibaba-stock-on-watch-as-company-eyes-tencent-related-antitrust-concession","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/5a36db9d73b4222bc376d24ccc48c8a4","article_id":"1167332168","content_text":"(March 17) Alibaba stocks advanced  more than 2%.Alibaba plans to set up a version of its TaobaoDeals app that can operate on rival Tencent 's WeChat socialnetwork in a concession to Chinese regulators cracking down on tech company overreach.Bloombergsourcessay Alibaba has already started to invite some merchants to participate in the lite bargain app, which will also allow Alibaba merchants to accept WeChat Pay for the first time.Tencent will have to approve of the app before it appears on WeChat, which has more than one billion users and already offers online payment and ride-sharing services.Alibaba and Tencent are both in the crosshairs of Chinese regulators due to the former's ties to Jack Ma and his Ant Group fintech and the latter's participation in the payments 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