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mingjie
2021-09-07
Huat la
Can The Bulls Defy The Odds Of September Weakness?
mingjie
2021-09-07
Nice
GameStop, Moderna, Home Depot, Kroger, and Other Stocks for Investors to Watch This Week
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2021-09-01
Ok
XPeng Announces Vehicle Delivery Results for August 2021
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2021-09-01
Good review
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la","listText":"Huat la","text":"Huat la","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/817640096","repostId":"1136345203","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1136345203","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1630932942,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1136345203?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-09-06 20:55","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Can The Bulls Defy The Odds Of September Weakness?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1136345203","media":"zerohedge","summary":"While we had previously discussed that August tends to be one of the weaker months of the year, the ","content":"<p>While we had previously discussed that August tends to be one of the weaker months of the year, the bulls defined that weakness posting an almost 3% gain. However, as discussed in our <i><b>Daily Market Commentary</b></i> on Wednesday:</p>\n<blockquote>\n <i>“August seasonality was a bust with the market advancing 2.6%. Will September seasonality prove to be more accurate?”</i>\n</blockquote>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c476595aaa36e3658acd7c6b2458a4f3\" tg-width=\"533\" tg-height=\"371\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p>\n<p>For now, the bullish bias remains strong as a barrage of weaker than expected economic data from GDP to manufacturing and employment give hope the Fed may forestall their <i>“tapering”</i> plans. But, as we will discuss in a moment, we think the bulls may be correct for a different reason.</p>\n<p>However, in the meantime, the <i>“stairstep”</i> advance continues with fundamentally weak companies making substantial gains as speculation displaces investment in the market. <b>Thus, while prices remain elevated, money flows weaken, suggesting the next downturn is roughly one to two weeks away.</b>So far, those corrections remain limited to the 50-dma, which is approximately 3% lower than Friday’s close, but a 10% correction to the 200-dma remains a possibility.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3d1ab015b2782edccd8f71c842786623\" tg-width=\"900\" tg-height=\"534\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">While there seems to be little concern relative to the market’s advance over the last year, maybe that should be the concern given the sharpness of that advance. I will discuss the history of “market melt-ups” and their eventual outcomes in an upcoming article. However, what is essential to notice is the corresponding ramp in valuations as earnings fail<i>t</i>o keep up with bullish expectations.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/32446c1ed4942c292051ab6f2646826f\" tg-width=\"836\" tg-height=\"460\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><b>Significantly, investors never realize they are in a </b><b><i>“melt-up”</i></b><b> until after it is over.</b></p>\n<p><u><b>Breadth Remains Weak As Market Advances</b></u></p>\n<p>At the moment, the bullish trend continues, and we must respect that trend for now. However, there are clear signs the advance is beginning to narrow markedly, which has historically served as a warning to investors.</p>\n<blockquote>\n <i>” As shown in the chart below, although the S&P 500 traded at an all-time high as recently as last week, the cumulative advance/decline (A/D) line for the broader NYSE universe peaked on June 11 this year. The divergence between the two looks similar to early-September last year—the point at which it was mostly the “big 5” stocks within the S&P 500 (the “generals”) that had powered the S&P 500 to its September 2, 2020 high.” – Charles Schwab</i>\n</blockquote>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3bec2406de602b799eed4c8cda45840c\" tg-width=\"713\" tg-height=\"280\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><i>“The percentage of S&P 500 stocks trading above their 50-day moving averages peaked in April, troughed in June, improved until recently, but has come under pressure again. The same can’t be said for the NASDAQ and Russell 2000, which both peaked in early February, since which time they’ve generally been descending.”</i></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/80c475204276754086f148219d6f0947\" tg-width=\"688\" tg-height=\"284\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><i>“Relative to their 200-day moving averages (DMA), all three indexes have been generally trending lower since April, as shown in the second chart below.” – Charles Schwab</i></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e880f82c99840963c1b4fb2f95b915ec\" tg-width=\"713\" tg-height=\"299\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Of course, as we repeat each week, while we are pointing out the warning signs, such does not mean selling everything and going to cash. However, it does serve as a visible warning to adjust your risk exposures accordingly and prepare for a potentially bumpy ride.</p>\n<blockquote>\n <i>“Just because you put on a seatbelt when the plane is landing, doesn’t mean you are going to crash. But is a logic precaution just in case.”</i>\n</blockquote>\n<p><b>Can The Fed Really Taper?</b></p>\n<p>We have noted the rising number of Fed speakers discussing the need to begin <i>“tapering”</i> the Fed’s balance sheet purchases in recent weeks. With employment returning well into what is historically considered “full employment,” surge in job openings, and rising inflation, the need to taper is evident. As noted <b><i>in our daily market commentary:</i></b></p>\n<blockquote>\n <i>“PCE, met expectations rising 0.4% in July. The level was 0.1% below the June reading. </i>\n <i><b>The year-over-year rate is 4.2%, which is more than double the Fed’s 2% inflation target.</b></i>\n <i> Importantly </i>\n <i><b>it suggests the Fed should be moving to tighten monetary policy.</b></i>\n <i>However, the trimmed-mean PCE was inline at 2% giving the Fed some “wiggle-room” for now, but likely not for long.</i>“\n</blockquote>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f8bb27150d54a104d64668f5f4306208\" tg-width=\"829\" tg-height=\"514\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">While the Fed may have some wiggle room short-term, the trimmed-mean PCE will catch up with PCE over the next month.</p>\n<p>The point is that the Fed is now getting pushed into needing to tighten monetary policy to quell inflationary pressures. However, a rising risk suggests they may be <i>“trapped</i>” in continuing their bond purchases and risking both an inflationary surge and creating market instability.</p>\n<p>That risk is the <i>“deficit.”</i></p>\n<p><b>Who Is Going To Fund The Deficit</b></p>\n<p>As discussed recently, the current mandatory spending of the Government consumes more than 100% of existing tax revenues. Therefore, all discretionary spending plus additional programs such as <i>“infrastructure”</i> and <i>“human infrastructure”</i>comes from debt issuance.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5f74a7c9f8392d4c3c6d366934b42511\" tg-width=\"768\" tg-height=\"688\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">As shown, the 2021 budget will push the current deficit towards $4-Trillion requiring the Federal Reserve to monetize at least<b><i> $1 Trillion of that issuance per our previous analysis.</i></b></p>\n<blockquote>\n <i>The scale and scope of government spending expansion in the last year are unprecedented. Because Uncle Sam doesn’t have the money, lots of it went on the government’s credit card. The deficit and debt skyrocketed. But this is only the beginning. </i>\n <i><b>The Biden administration recently proposed a $6 trillion budget for fiscal 2022, two-thirds of which would be borrowed.” –</b></i>\n <i>Reason</i>\n</blockquote>\n<blockquote>\n <i>The CBO (Congressional Budget Office) recently produced its long-term debt projection through 2050, ensuring poor economic returns. I reconstructed a chart from Deutsche Bank showing the US Federal Debt and Federal Reserve balance sheet. The chart uses the CBO projections through 2050.</i>\n</blockquote>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/771627893f89b51b37543e28698ed961\" tg-width=\"990\" tg-height=\"637\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><b>The federal debt load will climb from $28 trillion to roughly $140 trillion at the current growth rate by 2050.</b></p>\n<p>The problem, of course, is that the Fed must continue monetizing 30% of debt issuance to keep interest rates from surging and wrecking the economy.</p>\n<p>Let than sink in for a minute.</p>\n<p>If that is indeed the case, the Fed will not be able to <i>“taper”</i> their balance sheet purchases unless they are willing to risk a surge in interest rates, a collapse in economic growth, and a deflationary spiral.</p>\n<p>As Expected Q3-<b>GDP Gets Slashed</b></p>\n<p>Since the beginning of this year, we have penned several articles stating that economic growth would ultimately disappoint when fueled by an artificial stimulus. Specifically, we noted that <i>“bonds were sending an economic warning.”</i> To wit:</p>\n<blockquote>\n <i>“</i>\n <i><b>As shown, the correlation between rates and the economic composite suggests that current expectations of sustained economic expansion and rising inflation are overly optimistic.</b></i>\n <i> At current rates, economic growth will likely very quickly rturn to sub-2% growth by 2022.”</i>\n</blockquote>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/90ec177d9bfda4dab5c1a89f29d93556\" tg-width=\"853\" tg-height=\"549\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">The <i><b>disappointment of economic growth</b></i> is also a function of the surging debt and deficit levels, which, as noted above, will have to be entirely funded by the Federal Reserve.</p>\n<p>On Thursday, both the Atlanta Fed and Morgan Stanley slashed their estimates for Q3 growth as economic data continues to disappoint.</p>\n<blockquote>\n <i>“The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the third quarter of 2021 is </i>\n <i><b>3.7</b></i>\n <i> </i>\n <i><b>percent</b></i>\n <i>on September 2, </i>\n <i><b>down from 5.3 percent on September 1</b></i>\n <i>.” – Atlanta Fed</i>\n</blockquote>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c4c362937b721d02c854d792606d0166\" tg-width=\"670\" tg-height=\"366\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Notably, there were significant downward revisions to consumption and investment, declining from 2.6% and 23.4% to 1.9% and 19.3%, respectively. However, as we noted previously, such is not surprising as “stimulus” leaves the system, and the economic drivers return to normalcy.</p>\n<p><b>Morgan and Goldman As Well</b></p>\n<p>As stated, Morgan Stanely also slashed their estimates:</p>\n<blockquote>\n <i>“</i>\n <i><b>We are revising down 3Q GDP tracking to 2.9% from 6.5%, previously</b></i>\n <i>. Our forecast for 4Q GDP remains at 6.7%. The revision to 3Q implies full year 4Q/4Q GDP at 5.6% (5.7%Y) this year – 1.4pp lower than the Fed’s forecast of 7.0% in its June Summary of Economic Projections (SEP), and 0.7pp below Bloomberg consensus of economists at 6.3%.</i>\n</blockquote>\n<blockquote>\n <i><b>An examination of the data reveals that the slowdown is not broad-based and primarily reflects payback from stimulus spending as well as continued supply chain bottlenecks.</b></i>\n <i> The swing factor is largest in spending on big-ticket durable goods that benefited most from stimulus checks and are affected most by lack of inventory and price increases due to supply shortages, for example motor vehicles.”</i>\n</blockquote>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/75e5c5eb2840814e2972c92ab0ef9bf3\" tg-width=\"826\" tg-height=\"487\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">As we discussed previously, these two downgrades were playing catchup to our previous analysis and Goldman’s downgrade two weeks ago. To wit:</p>\n<blockquote>\n <i><b>“We have lowered our Q3 GDP forecast to +5.5%, reflecting hits to both consumer spending and production.</b></i>\n <i>Spending on dining, travel, and some other services is likely to decline in August, though we expect the drop to be modest and brief. Production is still suffering from supply chain disruptions, especially in the auto industry, and this is likely to mean less inventory rebuild in Q3.”</i> –\n <i> Goldman Sachs</i>\n</blockquote>\n<p>Investors should not overlook the importance of these downgrades.</p>\n<p><b>Earnings Estimates At Risk</b></p>\n<p>In our post on<i><b>“Peak Economic And Earnings Growth,</b></i>” we stated that corporate earnings and profits ultimately get derived from economic activity (personal consumption and business investment). Therefore, it is unlikely the currently lofty expectations will get met.</p>\n<p>The problem for investors currently is that analysts’ assumptions are always high, and markets are trading at more extreme valuations, which leaves little room for disappointment. For example, using analyst’s price target assumptions of 4700 for 2020 and current earnings expectations, the S&P is trading 2.6x earnings growth.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c3e58e6641c42d1879c094ce45b2f337\" tg-width=\"896\" tg-height=\"647\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Such puts the current P/E at 25.6x earnings in 2020, which is still expensive by historical measures.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d4abafc44c03ff687ce87c361a1f1357\" tg-width=\"886\" tg-height=\"637\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">That also puts the S&P 500 grossly above its linear trend line as earnings growth begins to revert.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ec0a0666e57f65c24037d219876028e2\" tg-width=\"988\" tg-height=\"534\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Through the end of this year, companies will guide down earnings estimates for a variety of reasons:</p>\n<ul>\n <li><p><i>Economic growth won’t be as robust as anticipated.</i></p></li>\n <li><p><i>Potentially higher corporate tax rates could reduce earnings.</i></p></li>\n <li><p><i>The increased input costs due to the stimulus can’t get passed on to consumers.</i></p></li>\n <li><p><i>Higher interest rates increasing borrowing costs which impact earnings.</i></p></li>\n <li><p><i>A weaker consumer than currently expected due to reduced employment and weaker wages.</i></p></li>\n <li><p><i>Global demand weakens due to a stronger dollar impacting exports.</i></p></li>\n</ul>\n<p><b>Such will leave investors once again</b><b><i> “overpaying”</i></b><b> for earnings growth that fails to materialize.</b></p>\n<p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Can The Bulls Defy The Odds Of September Weakness?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nCan The Bulls Defy The Odds Of September Weakness?\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-09-06 20:55 GMT+8 <a href=https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/can-bulls-defy-odds-september-weakness><strong>zerohedge</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>While we had previously discussed that August tends to be one of the weaker months of the year, the bulls defined that weakness posting an almost 3% gain. However, as discussed in our Daily Market ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/can-bulls-defy-odds-september-weakness\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".DJI":"道琼斯","SPY":"标普500ETF",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"source_url":"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/can-bulls-defy-odds-september-weakness","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1136345203","content_text":"While we had previously discussed that August tends to be one of the weaker months of the year, the bulls defined that weakness posting an almost 3% gain. However, as discussed in our Daily Market Commentary on Wednesday:\n\n“August seasonality was a bust with the market advancing 2.6%. Will September seasonality prove to be more accurate?”\n\n\nFor now, the bullish bias remains strong as a barrage of weaker than expected economic data from GDP to manufacturing and employment give hope the Fed may forestall their “tapering” plans. But, as we will discuss in a moment, we think the bulls may be correct for a different reason.\nHowever, in the meantime, the “stairstep” advance continues with fundamentally weak companies making substantial gains as speculation displaces investment in the market. Thus, while prices remain elevated, money flows weaken, suggesting the next downturn is roughly one to two weeks away.So far, those corrections remain limited to the 50-dma, which is approximately 3% lower than Friday’s close, but a 10% correction to the 200-dma remains a possibility.\nWhile there seems to be little concern relative to the market’s advance over the last year, maybe that should be the concern given the sharpness of that advance. I will discuss the history of “market melt-ups” and their eventual outcomes in an upcoming article. However, what is essential to notice is the corresponding ramp in valuations as earnings failto keep up with bullish expectations.\nSignificantly, investors never realize they are in a “melt-up” until after it is over.\nBreadth Remains Weak As Market Advances\nAt the moment, the bullish trend continues, and we must respect that trend for now. However, there are clear signs the advance is beginning to narrow markedly, which has historically served as a warning to investors.\n\n” As shown in the chart below, although the S&P 500 traded at an all-time high as recently as last week, the cumulative advance/decline (A/D) line for the broader NYSE universe peaked on June 11 this year. The divergence between the two looks similar to early-September last year—the point at which it was mostly the “big 5” stocks within the S&P 500 (the “generals”) that had powered the S&P 500 to its September 2, 2020 high.” – Charles Schwab\n\n“The percentage of S&P 500 stocks trading above their 50-day moving averages peaked in April, troughed in June, improved until recently, but has come under pressure again. The same can’t be said for the NASDAQ and Russell 2000, which both peaked in early February, since which time they’ve generally been descending.”\n“Relative to their 200-day moving averages (DMA), all three indexes have been generally trending lower since April, as shown in the second chart below.” – Charles Schwab\nOf course, as we repeat each week, while we are pointing out the warning signs, such does not mean selling everything and going to cash. However, it does serve as a visible warning to adjust your risk exposures accordingly and prepare for a potentially bumpy ride.\n\n“Just because you put on a seatbelt when the plane is landing, doesn’t mean you are going to crash. But is a logic precaution just in case.”\n\nCan The Fed Really Taper?\nWe have noted the rising number of Fed speakers discussing the need to begin “tapering” the Fed’s balance sheet purchases in recent weeks. With employment returning well into what is historically considered “full employment,” surge in job openings, and rising inflation, the need to taper is evident. As noted in our daily market commentary:\n\n“PCE, met expectations rising 0.4% in July. The level was 0.1% below the June reading. \nThe year-over-year rate is 4.2%, which is more than double the Fed’s 2% inflation target.\n Importantly \nit suggests the Fed should be moving to tighten monetary policy.\nHowever, the trimmed-mean PCE was inline at 2% giving the Fed some “wiggle-room” for now, but likely not for long.“\n\nWhile the Fed may have some wiggle room short-term, the trimmed-mean PCE will catch up with PCE over the next month.\nThe point is that the Fed is now getting pushed into needing to tighten monetary policy to quell inflationary pressures. However, a rising risk suggests they may be “trapped” in continuing their bond purchases and risking both an inflationary surge and creating market instability.\nThat risk is the “deficit.”\nWho Is Going To Fund The Deficit\nAs discussed recently, the current mandatory spending of the Government consumes more than 100% of existing tax revenues. Therefore, all discretionary spending plus additional programs such as “infrastructure” and “human infrastructure”comes from debt issuance.\nAs shown, the 2021 budget will push the current deficit towards $4-Trillion requiring the Federal Reserve to monetize at least $1 Trillion of that issuance per our previous analysis.\n\nThe scale and scope of government spending expansion in the last year are unprecedented. Because Uncle Sam doesn’t have the money, lots of it went on the government’s credit card. The deficit and debt skyrocketed. But this is only the beginning. \nThe Biden administration recently proposed a $6 trillion budget for fiscal 2022, two-thirds of which would be borrowed.” –\nReason\n\n\nThe CBO (Congressional Budget Office) recently produced its long-term debt projection through 2050, ensuring poor economic returns. I reconstructed a chart from Deutsche Bank showing the US Federal Debt and Federal Reserve balance sheet. The chart uses the CBO projections through 2050.\n\nThe federal debt load will climb from $28 trillion to roughly $140 trillion at the current growth rate by 2050.\nThe problem, of course, is that the Fed must continue monetizing 30% of debt issuance to keep interest rates from surging and wrecking the economy.\nLet than sink in for a minute.\nIf that is indeed the case, the Fed will not be able to “taper” their balance sheet purchases unless they are willing to risk a surge in interest rates, a collapse in economic growth, and a deflationary spiral.\nAs Expected Q3-GDP Gets Slashed\nSince the beginning of this year, we have penned several articles stating that economic growth would ultimately disappoint when fueled by an artificial stimulus. Specifically, we noted that “bonds were sending an economic warning.” To wit:\n\n“\nAs shown, the correlation between rates and the economic composite suggests that current expectations of sustained economic expansion and rising inflation are overly optimistic.\n At current rates, economic growth will likely very quickly rturn to sub-2% growth by 2022.”\n\nThe disappointment of economic growth is also a function of the surging debt and deficit levels, which, as noted above, will have to be entirely funded by the Federal Reserve.\nOn Thursday, both the Atlanta Fed and Morgan Stanley slashed their estimates for Q3 growth as economic data continues to disappoint.\n\n“The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the third quarter of 2021 is \n3.7\n \npercent\non September 2, \ndown from 5.3 percent on September 1\n.” – Atlanta Fed\n\nNotably, there were significant downward revisions to consumption and investment, declining from 2.6% and 23.4% to 1.9% and 19.3%, respectively. However, as we noted previously, such is not surprising as “stimulus” leaves the system, and the economic drivers return to normalcy.\nMorgan and Goldman As Well\nAs stated, Morgan Stanely also slashed their estimates:\n\n“\nWe are revising down 3Q GDP tracking to 2.9% from 6.5%, previously\n. Our forecast for 4Q GDP remains at 6.7%. The revision to 3Q implies full year 4Q/4Q GDP at 5.6% (5.7%Y) this year – 1.4pp lower than the Fed’s forecast of 7.0% in its June Summary of Economic Projections (SEP), and 0.7pp below Bloomberg consensus of economists at 6.3%.\n\n\nAn examination of the data reveals that the slowdown is not broad-based and primarily reflects payback from stimulus spending as well as continued supply chain bottlenecks.\n The swing factor is largest in spending on big-ticket durable goods that benefited most from stimulus checks and are affected most by lack of inventory and price increases due to supply shortages, for example motor vehicles.”\n\nAs we discussed previously, these two downgrades were playing catchup to our previous analysis and Goldman’s downgrade two weeks ago. To wit:\n\n“We have lowered our Q3 GDP forecast to +5.5%, reflecting hits to both consumer spending and production.\nSpending on dining, travel, and some other services is likely to decline in August, though we expect the drop to be modest and brief. Production is still suffering from supply chain disruptions, especially in the auto industry, and this is likely to mean less inventory rebuild in Q3.” –\n Goldman Sachs\n\nInvestors should not overlook the importance of these downgrades.\nEarnings Estimates At Risk\nIn our post on“Peak Economic And Earnings Growth,” we stated that corporate earnings and profits ultimately get derived from economic activity (personal consumption and business investment). Therefore, it is unlikely the currently lofty expectations will get met.\nThe problem for investors currently is that analysts’ assumptions are always high, and markets are trading at more extreme valuations, which leaves little room for disappointment. For example, using analyst’s price target assumptions of 4700 for 2020 and current earnings expectations, the S&P is trading 2.6x earnings growth.\nSuch puts the current P/E at 25.6x earnings in 2020, which is still expensive by historical measures.\nThat also puts the S&P 500 grossly above its linear trend line as earnings growth begins to revert.\nThrough the end of this year, companies will guide down earnings estimates for a variety of reasons:\n\nEconomic growth won’t be as robust as anticipated.\nPotentially higher corporate tax rates could reduce earnings.\nThe increased input costs due to the stimulus can’t get passed on to consumers.\nHigher interest rates increasing borrowing costs which impact earnings.\nA weaker consumer than currently expected due to reduced employment and weaker wages.\nGlobal demand weakens due to a stronger dollar impacting exports.\n\nSuch will leave investors once again “overpaying” for earnings growth that fails to materialize.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":301,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":817657475,"gmtCreate":1630946030997,"gmtModify":1632905004104,"author":{"id":"3572629560804600","authorId":"3572629560804600","name":"mingjie","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fb546a59aa38044b41e36681db0521ff","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3572629560804600","authorIdStr":"3572629560804600"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Nice","listText":"Nice","text":"Nice","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/817657475","repostId":"1143325200","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1143325200","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1630882610,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1143325200?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-09-06 06:56","market":"us","language":"en","title":"GameStop, Moderna, Home Depot, Kroger, and Other Stocks for Investors to Watch This Week","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1143325200","media":"Barrons","summary":"U.S. stock and bond markets are closed on Monday for Labor Day. The holiday-shortened week then feat","content":"<p>U.S. stock and bond markets are closed on Monday for Labor Day. The holiday-shortened week then features several notable company updates and economic data releases.</p>\n<p>GameStop and Lululemon Athletica release quarterly results on Wednesday, followed by International Paper on Thursday and Kroger on Friday. Analog Devices—fresh off of its $21 billion acquisition of Maxim Integrated Products—will host an investor day on Wednesday. Moderna, Danaher, and Home Depot managements will also speak with investors on Thursday. Finally, Albemarle hosts an investor day on Friday.</p>\n<p>The economic data highlight of the week will be Friday’s August producer price index from the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Economists’ consensus estimate is for a 0.6% monthly rise in the headline index, and a 0.5% increase for the core PPI—which leaves out more volatile food and energy prices. Both the core and headline indexes rose 1% in July. The August consumer price index will be out the following week, on Sept. 14.</p>\n<p>On Tuesday, the Federal Reserve will release its latest beige book, full of updates on economic, hiring, and business conditions in each of the dozen central bank districts. The European Central Bank also announces a monetary-policy decision on Thursday, but is widely expected to hold its target interest rate at its current level of negative 0.5%.</p>\n<p><b>Monday 9/6</b></p>\n<p>Stock and fixed-income markets are closed in observance of Labor Day.</p>\n<p><b>Tuesday 9/7</b></p>\n<p>Casey’s General Stores and Coupa Software announce earnings.</p>\n<p><b>Wednesday 9/8</b></p>\n<p>Copart, GameStop, and Lululemon Athletica release quarterly results.</p>\n<p>Analog Devices hosts a conference call to discuss its capital-allocation plans and update its outlook for fiscal 2021. The company recently closed its $21 billion acquisition of Maxim Integrated Products.</p>\n<p>Global Payments, Johnson Controls International, and ResMed hold virtual investor days.</p>\n<p>The Bureau of Labor Statistics releases the Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey. Consensus estimate is for 10 million job openings on the last business day of July. In June, there were 10.1 million openings, the fourth consecutive monthly record.</p>\n<p>The Federal Reserve reports consumer credit data for July. Total outstanding consumer debt increased by $37.7 billion to a record $4.32 trillion in June. For the second quarter, consumer credit rose at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 8.8%, reflecting pent-up demand.</p>\n<p>The Federal Reserve releases the beige book for the sixth of eight times this year. The report summarizes current economic conditions among the 12 Federal Reserve districts.</p>\n<p><b>Thursday 9/9</b></p>\n<p>Home Depot hosts a conference call to discuss its ESG strategy, led by Ron Jarvis, the company’s chief sustainability officer.</p>\n<p>Moderna hosts its fifth annual R&D day to discuss vaccines in the company’s pipeline. CEO Stéphane Bancel will be among the presenters.</p>\n<p>Danaher holds an investor and analyst meeting, hosted by its CEO Rainer Blair.</p>\n<p>International Paper, Synchrony Financial, and Willis Towers Watson hold investor days.</p>\n<p>The European Central Bank announces its monetary-policy decision. The ECB is expected to keep its key interest rate unchanged at minus 0.5%.</p>\n<p>The Department of Labor reports initial jobless claims for the week ending on Sept. 4. In August, claims averaged 355,000 a week, the lowest since the pandemic’s onset. This will also be the last week that the extra $300 from federal enhanced unemployment benefits is available. They are set to expire by Sept. 6.</p>\n<p><b>Friday 9/10</b></p>\n<p>The BLS reports the producer price index for August. Economists forecast a 0.6% monthly rise along with a 0.5% increase for the core PPI, which excludes volatile food and energy prices. Both jumped 1% in July.</p>\n<p>Kroger holds a conference calls to discuss earnings.</p>","source":"lsy1601382232898","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>GameStop, Moderna, Home Depot, Kroger, and Other Stocks for Investors to Watch This Week</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nGameStop, Moderna, Home Depot, Kroger, and Other Stocks for Investors to Watch This Week\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-09-06 06:56 GMT+8 <a href=https://www.barrons.com/articles/gamestop-moderna-home-depot-kroger-and-other-stocks-for-investors-to-watch-this-week-51630853023?mod=hp_LATEST><strong>Barrons</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>U.S. stock and bond markets are closed on Monday for Labor Day. The holiday-shortened week then features several notable company updates and economic data releases.\nGameStop and Lululemon Athletica ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.barrons.com/articles/gamestop-moderna-home-depot-kroger-and-other-stocks-for-investors-to-watch-this-week-51630853023?mod=hp_LATEST\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"GME":"游戏驿站",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","HD":"家得宝","KR":"克罗格",".DJI":"道琼斯","MRNA":"Moderna, Inc."},"source_url":"https://www.barrons.com/articles/gamestop-moderna-home-depot-kroger-and-other-stocks-for-investors-to-watch-this-week-51630853023?mod=hp_LATEST","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1143325200","content_text":"U.S. stock and bond markets are closed on Monday for Labor Day. The holiday-shortened week then features several notable company updates and economic data releases.\nGameStop and Lululemon Athletica release quarterly results on Wednesday, followed by International Paper on Thursday and Kroger on Friday. Analog Devices—fresh off of its $21 billion acquisition of Maxim Integrated Products—will host an investor day on Wednesday. Moderna, Danaher, and Home Depot managements will also speak with investors on Thursday. Finally, Albemarle hosts an investor day on Friday.\nThe economic data highlight of the week will be Friday’s August producer price index from the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Economists’ consensus estimate is for a 0.6% monthly rise in the headline index, and a 0.5% increase for the core PPI—which leaves out more volatile food and energy prices. Both the core and headline indexes rose 1% in July. The August consumer price index will be out the following week, on Sept. 14.\nOn Tuesday, the Federal Reserve will release its latest beige book, full of updates on economic, hiring, and business conditions in each of the dozen central bank districts. The European Central Bank also announces a monetary-policy decision on Thursday, but is widely expected to hold its target interest rate at its current level of negative 0.5%.\nMonday 9/6\nStock and fixed-income markets are closed in observance of Labor Day.\nTuesday 9/7\nCasey’s General Stores and Coupa Software announce earnings.\nWednesday 9/8\nCopart, GameStop, and Lululemon Athletica release quarterly results.\nAnalog Devices hosts a conference call to discuss its capital-allocation plans and update its outlook for fiscal 2021. The company recently closed its $21 billion acquisition of Maxim Integrated Products.\nGlobal Payments, Johnson Controls International, and ResMed hold virtual investor days.\nThe Bureau of Labor Statistics releases the Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey. Consensus estimate is for 10 million job openings on the last business day of July. In June, there were 10.1 million openings, the fourth consecutive monthly record.\nThe Federal Reserve reports consumer credit data for July. Total outstanding consumer debt increased by $37.7 billion to a record $4.32 trillion in June. For the second quarter, consumer credit rose at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 8.8%, reflecting pent-up demand.\nThe Federal Reserve releases the beige book for the sixth of eight times this year. The report summarizes current economic conditions among the 12 Federal Reserve districts.\nThursday 9/9\nHome Depot hosts a conference call to discuss its ESG strategy, led by Ron Jarvis, the company’s chief sustainability officer.\nModerna hosts its fifth annual R&D day to discuss vaccines in the company’s pipeline. CEO Stéphane Bancel will be among the presenters.\nDanaher holds an investor and analyst meeting, hosted by its CEO Rainer Blair.\nInternational Paper, Synchrony Financial, and Willis Towers Watson hold investor days.\nThe European Central Bank announces its monetary-policy decision. The ECB is expected to keep its key interest rate unchanged at minus 0.5%.\nThe Department of Labor reports initial jobless claims for the week ending on Sept. 4. In August, claims averaged 355,000 a week, the lowest since the pandemic’s onset. This will also be the last week that the extra $300 from federal enhanced unemployment benefits is available. They are set to expire by Sept. 6.\nFriday 9/10\nThe BLS reports the producer price index for August. Economists forecast a 0.6% monthly rise along with a 0.5% increase for the core PPI, which excludes volatile food and energy prices. Both jumped 1% in July.\nKroger holds a conference calls to discuss earnings.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":214,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":816845295,"gmtCreate":1630490331917,"gmtModify":1633677702391,"author":{"id":"3572629560804600","authorId":"3572629560804600","name":"mingjie","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fb546a59aa38044b41e36681db0521ff","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3572629560804600","authorIdStr":"3572629560804600"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Ok","listText":"Ok","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/816845295","repostId":"2164994738","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2164994738","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1630488600,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2164994738?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-09-01 17:30","market":"hk","language":"en","title":"XPeng Announces Vehicle Delivery Results for August 2021","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2164994738","media":"StreetInsider","summary":"7,214 vehicles delivered in August 2021, a 172% increase year-over-year\n6,165 P7s delivered in Augus","content":"<ul>\n <li>7,214 vehicles delivered in August 2021, a 172% increase year-over-year</li>\n <li>6,165 P7s delivered in August 2021, a record month and a 209% increase year-over-year</li>\n <li>45,992 total vehicles delivered year-to-date, a 334% increase year-over-year</li>\n</ul>\n<p>GUANGZHOU, China--(BUSINESS WIRE)--</p>\n<p>XPeng Inc. (“XPeng” or the “Company,” NYSE: XPEV and HKEX: 9868), a leading Chinese smart electric vehicle (“Smart EV”) company, today announced its vehicle delivery results for August 2021.</p>\n<p>This press release features multimedia. View the full release here: https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20210901005427/en/</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5f354bb412fdd04301cf1e6d927cb1a6\" tg-width=\"480\" tg-height=\"270\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>XPeng P7 (Photo: Business Wire)</p>\n<p>In August, XPeng delivered 7,214 Smart EVs, representing a 172% increase year-over-year. Deliveries in August consisted of 6,165 P7s, the Company’s sports smart sedan, and 1,049 G3s, its smart compact SUV.</p>\n<p>2021 year-to-date deliveries reached 45,992 vehicles, representing a 334% increase year-over-year. P7 deliveries continued to strengthen, achieving a record month in August and a 209% increase year-over-year.</p>\n<p>In August, the Company began to transition production for the G3 SUV to G3i, the mid-cycle facelift version of G3, to its wholly-owned Zhaoqing Smart EV Manufacturing Base. As a result, some planned deliveries of the G3 were affected in August. The Company expects to start deliveries of the G3i to start in September.</p>\n<p>On September 15, the Company plans to officially launch the P5 family sedan, its third production model, with deliveries starting in October.</p>\n<p><b>About XPeng Inc.</b></p>\n<p>XPeng is a leading Chinese smart electric vehicle company that designs, develops, manufactures, and markets Smart EVs that appeal to the large and growing base of technology-savvy middle-class consumers in China. Its mission is to drive Smart EV transformation with technology and data, shaping the mobility experience of the future. In order to optimize its customers’ mobility experience, XPeng develops in-house its full-stack autonomous driving technology and in-car intelligent operating system, as well as core vehicle systems including powertrain and the electrification/electronic architecture. XPeng is headquartered in Guangzhou, China, with main offices in Beijing, Shanghai, Silicon Valley and San Diego. The Company’s Smart EVs are manufactured at its plant in Zhaoqing, Guangdong province. For more information, please visit https://en.xiaopeng.com.</p>","source":"highlight_streetinsider","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>XPeng Announces Vehicle Delivery Results for August 2021</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nXPeng Announces Vehicle Delivery Results for August 2021\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-09-01 17:30 GMT+8 <a href=https://www.streetinsider.com/dr/news.php?id=18891199><strong>StreetInsider</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>7,214 vehicles delivered in August 2021, a 172% increase year-over-year\n6,165 P7s delivered in August 2021, a record month and a 209% increase year-over-year\n45,992 total vehicles delivered year-to-...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.streetinsider.com/dr/news.php?id=18891199\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"XPEV":"小鹏汽车","09868":"小鹏汽车-W"},"source_url":"https://www.streetinsider.com/dr/news.php?id=18891199","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2164994738","content_text":"7,214 vehicles delivered in August 2021, a 172% increase year-over-year\n6,165 P7s delivered in August 2021, a record month and a 209% increase year-over-year\n45,992 total vehicles delivered year-to-date, a 334% increase year-over-year\n\nGUANGZHOU, China--(BUSINESS WIRE)--\nXPeng Inc. (“XPeng” or the “Company,” NYSE: XPEV and HKEX: 9868), a leading Chinese smart electric vehicle (“Smart EV”) company, today announced its vehicle delivery results for August 2021.\nThis press release features multimedia. View the full release here: https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20210901005427/en/\n\nXPeng P7 (Photo: Business Wire)\nIn August, XPeng delivered 7,214 Smart EVs, representing a 172% increase year-over-year. Deliveries in August consisted of 6,165 P7s, the Company’s sports smart sedan, and 1,049 G3s, its smart compact SUV.\n2021 year-to-date deliveries reached 45,992 vehicles, representing a 334% increase year-over-year. P7 deliveries continued to strengthen, achieving a record month in August and a 209% increase year-over-year.\nIn August, the Company began to transition production for the G3 SUV to G3i, the mid-cycle facelift version of G3, to its wholly-owned Zhaoqing Smart EV Manufacturing Base. As a result, some planned deliveries of the G3 were affected in August. The Company expects to start deliveries of the G3i to start in September.\nOn September 15, the Company plans to officially launch the P5 family sedan, its third production model, with deliveries starting in October.\nAbout XPeng Inc.\nXPeng is a leading Chinese smart electric vehicle company that designs, develops, manufactures, and markets Smart EVs that appeal to the large and growing base of technology-savvy middle-class consumers in China. Its mission is to drive Smart EV transformation with technology and data, shaping the mobility experience of the future. In order to optimize its customers’ mobility experience, XPeng develops in-house its full-stack autonomous driving technology and in-car intelligent operating system, as well as core vehicle systems including powertrain and the electrification/electronic architecture. XPeng is headquartered in Guangzhou, China, with main offices in Beijing, Shanghai, Silicon Valley and San Diego. The Company’s Smart EVs are manufactured at its plant in Zhaoqing, Guangdong province. For more information, please visit https://en.xiaopeng.com.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":247,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":816846551,"gmtCreate":1630490209373,"gmtModify":1633677703874,"author":{"id":"3572629560804600","authorId":"3572629560804600","name":"mingjie","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fb546a59aa38044b41e36681db0521ff","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3572629560804600","authorIdStr":"3572629560804600"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Good review","listText":"Good review","text":"Good review","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/816846551","repostId":"1128788292","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":235,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":816845295,"gmtCreate":1630490331917,"gmtModify":1633677702391,"author":{"id":"3572629560804600","authorId":"3572629560804600","name":"mingjie","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fb546a59aa38044b41e36681db0521ff","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3572629560804600","authorIdStr":"3572629560804600"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Ok","listText":"Ok","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/816845295","repostId":"2164994738","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2164994738","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1630488600,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2164994738?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-09-01 17:30","market":"hk","language":"en","title":"XPeng Announces Vehicle Delivery Results for August 2021","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2164994738","media":"StreetInsider","summary":"7,214 vehicles delivered in August 2021, a 172% increase year-over-year\n6,165 P7s delivered in Augus","content":"<ul>\n <li>7,214 vehicles delivered in August 2021, a 172% increase year-over-year</li>\n <li>6,165 P7s delivered in August 2021, a record month and a 209% increase year-over-year</li>\n <li>45,992 total vehicles delivered year-to-date, a 334% increase year-over-year</li>\n</ul>\n<p>GUANGZHOU, China--(BUSINESS WIRE)--</p>\n<p>XPeng Inc. (“XPeng” or the “Company,” NYSE: XPEV and HKEX: 9868), a leading Chinese smart electric vehicle (“Smart EV”) company, today announced its vehicle delivery results for August 2021.</p>\n<p>This press release features multimedia. View the full release here: https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20210901005427/en/</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5f354bb412fdd04301cf1e6d927cb1a6\" tg-width=\"480\" tg-height=\"270\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>XPeng P7 (Photo: Business Wire)</p>\n<p>In August, XPeng delivered 7,214 Smart EVs, representing a 172% increase year-over-year. Deliveries in August consisted of 6,165 P7s, the Company’s sports smart sedan, and 1,049 G3s, its smart compact SUV.</p>\n<p>2021 year-to-date deliveries reached 45,992 vehicles, representing a 334% increase year-over-year. P7 deliveries continued to strengthen, achieving a record month in August and a 209% increase year-over-year.</p>\n<p>In August, the Company began to transition production for the G3 SUV to G3i, the mid-cycle facelift version of G3, to its wholly-owned Zhaoqing Smart EV Manufacturing Base. As a result, some planned deliveries of the G3 were affected in August. The Company expects to start deliveries of the G3i to start in September.</p>\n<p>On September 15, the Company plans to officially launch the P5 family sedan, its third production model, with deliveries starting in October.</p>\n<p><b>About XPeng Inc.</b></p>\n<p>XPeng is a leading Chinese smart electric vehicle company that designs, develops, manufactures, and markets Smart EVs that appeal to the large and growing base of technology-savvy middle-class consumers in China. Its mission is to drive Smart EV transformation with technology and data, shaping the mobility experience of the future. In order to optimize its customers’ mobility experience, XPeng develops in-house its full-stack autonomous driving technology and in-car intelligent operating system, as well as core vehicle systems including powertrain and the electrification/electronic architecture. XPeng is headquartered in Guangzhou, China, with main offices in Beijing, Shanghai, Silicon Valley and San Diego. The Company’s Smart EVs are manufactured at its plant in Zhaoqing, Guangdong province. For more information, please visit https://en.xiaopeng.com.</p>","source":"highlight_streetinsider","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>XPeng Announces Vehicle Delivery Results for August 2021</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nXPeng Announces Vehicle Delivery Results for August 2021\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-09-01 17:30 GMT+8 <a href=https://www.streetinsider.com/dr/news.php?id=18891199><strong>StreetInsider</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>7,214 vehicles delivered in August 2021, a 172% increase year-over-year\n6,165 P7s delivered in August 2021, a record month and a 209% increase year-over-year\n45,992 total vehicles delivered year-to-...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.streetinsider.com/dr/news.php?id=18891199\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"XPEV":"小鹏汽车","09868":"小鹏汽车-W"},"source_url":"https://www.streetinsider.com/dr/news.php?id=18891199","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2164994738","content_text":"7,214 vehicles delivered in August 2021, a 172% increase year-over-year\n6,165 P7s delivered in August 2021, a record month and a 209% increase year-over-year\n45,992 total vehicles delivered year-to-date, a 334% increase year-over-year\n\nGUANGZHOU, China--(BUSINESS WIRE)--\nXPeng Inc. (“XPeng” or the “Company,” NYSE: XPEV and HKEX: 9868), a leading Chinese smart electric vehicle (“Smart EV”) company, today announced its vehicle delivery results for August 2021.\nThis press release features multimedia. View the full release here: https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20210901005427/en/\n\nXPeng P7 (Photo: Business Wire)\nIn August, XPeng delivered 7,214 Smart EVs, representing a 172% increase year-over-year. Deliveries in August consisted of 6,165 P7s, the Company’s sports smart sedan, and 1,049 G3s, its smart compact SUV.\n2021 year-to-date deliveries reached 45,992 vehicles, representing a 334% increase year-over-year. P7 deliveries continued to strengthen, achieving a record month in August and a 209% increase year-over-year.\nIn August, the Company began to transition production for the G3 SUV to G3i, the mid-cycle facelift version of G3, to its wholly-owned Zhaoqing Smart EV Manufacturing Base. As a result, some planned deliveries of the G3 were affected in August. The Company expects to start deliveries of the G3i to start in September.\nOn September 15, the Company plans to officially launch the P5 family sedan, its third production model, with deliveries starting in October.\nAbout XPeng Inc.\nXPeng is a leading Chinese smart electric vehicle company that designs, develops, manufactures, and markets Smart EVs that appeal to the large and growing base of technology-savvy middle-class consumers in China. Its mission is to drive Smart EV transformation with technology and data, shaping the mobility experience of the future. In order to optimize its customers’ mobility experience, XPeng develops in-house its full-stack autonomous driving technology and in-car intelligent operating system, as well as core vehicle systems including powertrain and the electrification/electronic architecture. XPeng is headquartered in Guangzhou, China, with main offices in Beijing, Shanghai, Silicon Valley and San Diego. The Company’s Smart EVs are manufactured at its plant in Zhaoqing, Guangdong province. For more information, please visit https://en.xiaopeng.com.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":247,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":817657475,"gmtCreate":1630946030997,"gmtModify":1632905004104,"author":{"id":"3572629560804600","authorId":"3572629560804600","name":"mingjie","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fb546a59aa38044b41e36681db0521ff","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3572629560804600","authorIdStr":"3572629560804600"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Nice","listText":"Nice","text":"Nice","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/817657475","repostId":"1143325200","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1143325200","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1630882610,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1143325200?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-09-06 06:56","market":"us","language":"en","title":"GameStop, Moderna, Home Depot, Kroger, and Other Stocks for Investors to Watch This Week","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1143325200","media":"Barrons","summary":"U.S. stock and bond markets are closed on Monday for Labor Day. The holiday-shortened week then feat","content":"<p>U.S. stock and bond markets are closed on Monday for Labor Day. The holiday-shortened week then features several notable company updates and economic data releases.</p>\n<p>GameStop and Lululemon Athletica release quarterly results on Wednesday, followed by International Paper on Thursday and Kroger on Friday. Analog Devices—fresh off of its $21 billion acquisition of Maxim Integrated Products—will host an investor day on Wednesday. Moderna, Danaher, and Home Depot managements will also speak with investors on Thursday. Finally, Albemarle hosts an investor day on Friday.</p>\n<p>The economic data highlight of the week will be Friday’s August producer price index from the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Economists’ consensus estimate is for a 0.6% monthly rise in the headline index, and a 0.5% increase for the core PPI—which leaves out more volatile food and energy prices. Both the core and headline indexes rose 1% in July. The August consumer price index will be out the following week, on Sept. 14.</p>\n<p>On Tuesday, the Federal Reserve will release its latest beige book, full of updates on economic, hiring, and business conditions in each of the dozen central bank districts. The European Central Bank also announces a monetary-policy decision on Thursday, but is widely expected to hold its target interest rate at its current level of negative 0.5%.</p>\n<p><b>Monday 9/6</b></p>\n<p>Stock and fixed-income markets are closed in observance of Labor Day.</p>\n<p><b>Tuesday 9/7</b></p>\n<p>Casey’s General Stores and Coupa Software announce earnings.</p>\n<p><b>Wednesday 9/8</b></p>\n<p>Copart, GameStop, and Lululemon Athletica release quarterly results.</p>\n<p>Analog Devices hosts a conference call to discuss its capital-allocation plans and update its outlook for fiscal 2021. The company recently closed its $21 billion acquisition of Maxim Integrated Products.</p>\n<p>Global Payments, Johnson Controls International, and ResMed hold virtual investor days.</p>\n<p>The Bureau of Labor Statistics releases the Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey. Consensus estimate is for 10 million job openings on the last business day of July. In June, there were 10.1 million openings, the fourth consecutive monthly record.</p>\n<p>The Federal Reserve reports consumer credit data for July. Total outstanding consumer debt increased by $37.7 billion to a record $4.32 trillion in June. For the second quarter, consumer credit rose at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 8.8%, reflecting pent-up demand.</p>\n<p>The Federal Reserve releases the beige book for the sixth of eight times this year. The report summarizes current economic conditions among the 12 Federal Reserve districts.</p>\n<p><b>Thursday 9/9</b></p>\n<p>Home Depot hosts a conference call to discuss its ESG strategy, led by Ron Jarvis, the company’s chief sustainability officer.</p>\n<p>Moderna hosts its fifth annual R&D day to discuss vaccines in the company’s pipeline. CEO Stéphane Bancel will be among the presenters.</p>\n<p>Danaher holds an investor and analyst meeting, hosted by its CEO Rainer Blair.</p>\n<p>International Paper, Synchrony Financial, and Willis Towers Watson hold investor days.</p>\n<p>The European Central Bank announces its monetary-policy decision. The ECB is expected to keep its key interest rate unchanged at minus 0.5%.</p>\n<p>The Department of Labor reports initial jobless claims for the week ending on Sept. 4. In August, claims averaged 355,000 a week, the lowest since the pandemic’s onset. This will also be the last week that the extra $300 from federal enhanced unemployment benefits is available. They are set to expire by Sept. 6.</p>\n<p><b>Friday 9/10</b></p>\n<p>The BLS reports the producer price index for August. Economists forecast a 0.6% monthly rise along with a 0.5% increase for the core PPI, which excludes volatile food and energy prices. Both jumped 1% in July.</p>\n<p>Kroger holds a conference calls to discuss earnings.</p>","source":"lsy1601382232898","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>GameStop, Moderna, Home Depot, Kroger, and Other Stocks for Investors to Watch This Week</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nGameStop, Moderna, Home Depot, Kroger, and Other Stocks for Investors to Watch This Week\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-09-06 06:56 GMT+8 <a href=https://www.barrons.com/articles/gamestop-moderna-home-depot-kroger-and-other-stocks-for-investors-to-watch-this-week-51630853023?mod=hp_LATEST><strong>Barrons</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>U.S. stock and bond markets are closed on Monday for Labor Day. The holiday-shortened week then features several notable company updates and economic data releases.\nGameStop and Lululemon Athletica ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.barrons.com/articles/gamestop-moderna-home-depot-kroger-and-other-stocks-for-investors-to-watch-this-week-51630853023?mod=hp_LATEST\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"GME":"游戏驿站",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","HD":"家得宝","KR":"克罗格",".DJI":"道琼斯","MRNA":"Moderna, Inc."},"source_url":"https://www.barrons.com/articles/gamestop-moderna-home-depot-kroger-and-other-stocks-for-investors-to-watch-this-week-51630853023?mod=hp_LATEST","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1143325200","content_text":"U.S. stock and bond markets are closed on Monday for Labor Day. The holiday-shortened week then features several notable company updates and economic data releases.\nGameStop and Lululemon Athletica release quarterly results on Wednesday, followed by International Paper on Thursday and Kroger on Friday. Analog Devices—fresh off of its $21 billion acquisition of Maxim Integrated Products—will host an investor day on Wednesday. Moderna, Danaher, and Home Depot managements will also speak with investors on Thursday. Finally, Albemarle hosts an investor day on Friday.\nThe economic data highlight of the week will be Friday’s August producer price index from the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Economists’ consensus estimate is for a 0.6% monthly rise in the headline index, and a 0.5% increase for the core PPI—which leaves out more volatile food and energy prices. Both the core and headline indexes rose 1% in July. The August consumer price index will be out the following week, on Sept. 14.\nOn Tuesday, the Federal Reserve will release its latest beige book, full of updates on economic, hiring, and business conditions in each of the dozen central bank districts. The European Central Bank also announces a monetary-policy decision on Thursday, but is widely expected to hold its target interest rate at its current level of negative 0.5%.\nMonday 9/6\nStock and fixed-income markets are closed in observance of Labor Day.\nTuesday 9/7\nCasey’s General Stores and Coupa Software announce earnings.\nWednesday 9/8\nCopart, GameStop, and Lululemon Athletica release quarterly results.\nAnalog Devices hosts a conference call to discuss its capital-allocation plans and update its outlook for fiscal 2021. The company recently closed its $21 billion acquisition of Maxim Integrated Products.\nGlobal Payments, Johnson Controls International, and ResMed hold virtual investor days.\nThe Bureau of Labor Statistics releases the Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey. Consensus estimate is for 10 million job openings on the last business day of July. In June, there were 10.1 million openings, the fourth consecutive monthly record.\nThe Federal Reserve reports consumer credit data for July. Total outstanding consumer debt increased by $37.7 billion to a record $4.32 trillion in June. For the second quarter, consumer credit rose at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 8.8%, reflecting pent-up demand.\nThe Federal Reserve releases the beige book for the sixth of eight times this year. The report summarizes current economic conditions among the 12 Federal Reserve districts.\nThursday 9/9\nHome Depot hosts a conference call to discuss its ESG strategy, led by Ron Jarvis, the company’s chief sustainability officer.\nModerna hosts its fifth annual R&D day to discuss vaccines in the company’s pipeline. CEO Stéphane Bancel will be among the presenters.\nDanaher holds an investor and analyst meeting, hosted by its CEO Rainer Blair.\nInternational Paper, Synchrony Financial, and Willis Towers Watson hold investor days.\nThe European Central Bank announces its monetary-policy decision. The ECB is expected to keep its key interest rate unchanged at minus 0.5%.\nThe Department of Labor reports initial jobless claims for the week ending on Sept. 4. In August, claims averaged 355,000 a week, the lowest since the pandemic’s onset. This will also be the last week that the extra $300 from federal enhanced unemployment benefits is available. They are set to expire by Sept. 6.\nFriday 9/10\nThe BLS reports the producer price index for August. Economists forecast a 0.6% monthly rise along with a 0.5% increase for the core PPI, which excludes volatile food and energy prices. Both jumped 1% in July.\nKroger holds a conference calls to discuss earnings.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":214,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":816846551,"gmtCreate":1630490209373,"gmtModify":1633677703874,"author":{"id":"3572629560804600","authorId":"3572629560804600","name":"mingjie","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fb546a59aa38044b41e36681db0521ff","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3572629560804600","authorIdStr":"3572629560804600"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Good review","listText":"Good review","text":"Good review","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/816846551","repostId":"1128788292","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":235,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":817640096,"gmtCreate":1630946051615,"gmtModify":1632905003880,"author":{"id":"3572629560804600","authorId":"3572629560804600","name":"mingjie","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fb546a59aa38044b41e36681db0521ff","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3572629560804600","authorIdStr":"3572629560804600"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Huat la","listText":"Huat la","text":"Huat la","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/817640096","repostId":"1136345203","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1136345203","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1630932942,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1136345203?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-09-06 20:55","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Can The Bulls Defy The Odds Of September Weakness?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1136345203","media":"zerohedge","summary":"While we had previously discussed that August tends to be one of the weaker months of the year, the ","content":"<p>While we had previously discussed that August tends to be one of the weaker months of the year, the bulls defined that weakness posting an almost 3% gain. However, as discussed in our <i><b>Daily Market Commentary</b></i> on Wednesday:</p>\n<blockquote>\n <i>“August seasonality was a bust with the market advancing 2.6%. Will September seasonality prove to be more accurate?”</i>\n</blockquote>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c476595aaa36e3658acd7c6b2458a4f3\" tg-width=\"533\" tg-height=\"371\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p>\n<p>For now, the bullish bias remains strong as a barrage of weaker than expected economic data from GDP to manufacturing and employment give hope the Fed may forestall their <i>“tapering”</i> plans. But, as we will discuss in a moment, we think the bulls may be correct for a different reason.</p>\n<p>However, in the meantime, the <i>“stairstep”</i> advance continues with fundamentally weak companies making substantial gains as speculation displaces investment in the market. <b>Thus, while prices remain elevated, money flows weaken, suggesting the next downturn is roughly one to two weeks away.</b>So far, those corrections remain limited to the 50-dma, which is approximately 3% lower than Friday’s close, but a 10% correction to the 200-dma remains a possibility.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3d1ab015b2782edccd8f71c842786623\" tg-width=\"900\" tg-height=\"534\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">While there seems to be little concern relative to the market’s advance over the last year, maybe that should be the concern given the sharpness of that advance. I will discuss the history of “market melt-ups” and their eventual outcomes in an upcoming article. However, what is essential to notice is the corresponding ramp in valuations as earnings fail<i>t</i>o keep up with bullish expectations.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/32446c1ed4942c292051ab6f2646826f\" tg-width=\"836\" tg-height=\"460\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><b>Significantly, investors never realize they are in a </b><b><i>“melt-up”</i></b><b> until after it is over.</b></p>\n<p><u><b>Breadth Remains Weak As Market Advances</b></u></p>\n<p>At the moment, the bullish trend continues, and we must respect that trend for now. However, there are clear signs the advance is beginning to narrow markedly, which has historically served as a warning to investors.</p>\n<blockquote>\n <i>” As shown in the chart below, although the S&P 500 traded at an all-time high as recently as last week, the cumulative advance/decline (A/D) line for the broader NYSE universe peaked on June 11 this year. The divergence between the two looks similar to early-September last year—the point at which it was mostly the “big 5” stocks within the S&P 500 (the “generals”) that had powered the S&P 500 to its September 2, 2020 high.” – Charles Schwab</i>\n</blockquote>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3bec2406de602b799eed4c8cda45840c\" tg-width=\"713\" tg-height=\"280\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><i>“The percentage of S&P 500 stocks trading above their 50-day moving averages peaked in April, troughed in June, improved until recently, but has come under pressure again. The same can’t be said for the NASDAQ and Russell 2000, which both peaked in early February, since which time they’ve generally been descending.”</i></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/80c475204276754086f148219d6f0947\" tg-width=\"688\" tg-height=\"284\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><i>“Relative to their 200-day moving averages (DMA), all three indexes have been generally trending lower since April, as shown in the second chart below.” – Charles Schwab</i></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e880f82c99840963c1b4fb2f95b915ec\" tg-width=\"713\" tg-height=\"299\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Of course, as we repeat each week, while we are pointing out the warning signs, such does not mean selling everything and going to cash. However, it does serve as a visible warning to adjust your risk exposures accordingly and prepare for a potentially bumpy ride.</p>\n<blockquote>\n <i>“Just because you put on a seatbelt when the plane is landing, doesn’t mean you are going to crash. But is a logic precaution just in case.”</i>\n</blockquote>\n<p><b>Can The Fed Really Taper?</b></p>\n<p>We have noted the rising number of Fed speakers discussing the need to begin <i>“tapering”</i> the Fed’s balance sheet purchases in recent weeks. With employment returning well into what is historically considered “full employment,” surge in job openings, and rising inflation, the need to taper is evident. As noted <b><i>in our daily market commentary:</i></b></p>\n<blockquote>\n <i>“PCE, met expectations rising 0.4% in July. The level was 0.1% below the June reading. </i>\n <i><b>The year-over-year rate is 4.2%, which is more than double the Fed’s 2% inflation target.</b></i>\n <i> Importantly </i>\n <i><b>it suggests the Fed should be moving to tighten monetary policy.</b></i>\n <i>However, the trimmed-mean PCE was inline at 2% giving the Fed some “wiggle-room” for now, but likely not for long.</i>“\n</blockquote>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f8bb27150d54a104d64668f5f4306208\" tg-width=\"829\" tg-height=\"514\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">While the Fed may have some wiggle room short-term, the trimmed-mean PCE will catch up with PCE over the next month.</p>\n<p>The point is that the Fed is now getting pushed into needing to tighten monetary policy to quell inflationary pressures. However, a rising risk suggests they may be <i>“trapped</i>” in continuing their bond purchases and risking both an inflationary surge and creating market instability.</p>\n<p>That risk is the <i>“deficit.”</i></p>\n<p><b>Who Is Going To Fund The Deficit</b></p>\n<p>As discussed recently, the current mandatory spending of the Government consumes more than 100% of existing tax revenues. Therefore, all discretionary spending plus additional programs such as <i>“infrastructure”</i> and <i>“human infrastructure”</i>comes from debt issuance.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5f74a7c9f8392d4c3c6d366934b42511\" tg-width=\"768\" tg-height=\"688\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">As shown, the 2021 budget will push the current deficit towards $4-Trillion requiring the Federal Reserve to monetize at least<b><i> $1 Trillion of that issuance per our previous analysis.</i></b></p>\n<blockquote>\n <i>The scale and scope of government spending expansion in the last year are unprecedented. Because Uncle Sam doesn’t have the money, lots of it went on the government’s credit card. The deficit and debt skyrocketed. But this is only the beginning. </i>\n <i><b>The Biden administration recently proposed a $6 trillion budget for fiscal 2022, two-thirds of which would be borrowed.” –</b></i>\n <i>Reason</i>\n</blockquote>\n<blockquote>\n <i>The CBO (Congressional Budget Office) recently produced its long-term debt projection through 2050, ensuring poor economic returns. I reconstructed a chart from Deutsche Bank showing the US Federal Debt and Federal Reserve balance sheet. The chart uses the CBO projections through 2050.</i>\n</blockquote>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/771627893f89b51b37543e28698ed961\" tg-width=\"990\" tg-height=\"637\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><b>The federal debt load will climb from $28 trillion to roughly $140 trillion at the current growth rate by 2050.</b></p>\n<p>The problem, of course, is that the Fed must continue monetizing 30% of debt issuance to keep interest rates from surging and wrecking the economy.</p>\n<p>Let than sink in for a minute.</p>\n<p>If that is indeed the case, the Fed will not be able to <i>“taper”</i> their balance sheet purchases unless they are willing to risk a surge in interest rates, a collapse in economic growth, and a deflationary spiral.</p>\n<p>As Expected Q3-<b>GDP Gets Slashed</b></p>\n<p>Since the beginning of this year, we have penned several articles stating that economic growth would ultimately disappoint when fueled by an artificial stimulus. Specifically, we noted that <i>“bonds were sending an economic warning.”</i> To wit:</p>\n<blockquote>\n <i>“</i>\n <i><b>As shown, the correlation between rates and the economic composite suggests that current expectations of sustained economic expansion and rising inflation are overly optimistic.</b></i>\n <i> At current rates, economic growth will likely very quickly rturn to sub-2% growth by 2022.”</i>\n</blockquote>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/90ec177d9bfda4dab5c1a89f29d93556\" tg-width=\"853\" tg-height=\"549\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">The <i><b>disappointment of economic growth</b></i> is also a function of the surging debt and deficit levels, which, as noted above, will have to be entirely funded by the Federal Reserve.</p>\n<p>On Thursday, both the Atlanta Fed and Morgan Stanley slashed their estimates for Q3 growth as economic data continues to disappoint.</p>\n<blockquote>\n <i>“The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the third quarter of 2021 is </i>\n <i><b>3.7</b></i>\n <i> </i>\n <i><b>percent</b></i>\n <i>on September 2, </i>\n <i><b>down from 5.3 percent on September 1</b></i>\n <i>.” – Atlanta Fed</i>\n</blockquote>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c4c362937b721d02c854d792606d0166\" tg-width=\"670\" tg-height=\"366\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Notably, there were significant downward revisions to consumption and investment, declining from 2.6% and 23.4% to 1.9% and 19.3%, respectively. However, as we noted previously, such is not surprising as “stimulus” leaves the system, and the economic drivers return to normalcy.</p>\n<p><b>Morgan and Goldman As Well</b></p>\n<p>As stated, Morgan Stanely also slashed their estimates:</p>\n<blockquote>\n <i>“</i>\n <i><b>We are revising down 3Q GDP tracking to 2.9% from 6.5%, previously</b></i>\n <i>. Our forecast for 4Q GDP remains at 6.7%. The revision to 3Q implies full year 4Q/4Q GDP at 5.6% (5.7%Y) this year – 1.4pp lower than the Fed’s forecast of 7.0% in its June Summary of Economic Projections (SEP), and 0.7pp below Bloomberg consensus of economists at 6.3%.</i>\n</blockquote>\n<blockquote>\n <i><b>An examination of the data reveals that the slowdown is not broad-based and primarily reflects payback from stimulus spending as well as continued supply chain bottlenecks.</b></i>\n <i> The swing factor is largest in spending on big-ticket durable goods that benefited most from stimulus checks and are affected most by lack of inventory and price increases due to supply shortages, for example motor vehicles.”</i>\n</blockquote>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/75e5c5eb2840814e2972c92ab0ef9bf3\" tg-width=\"826\" tg-height=\"487\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">As we discussed previously, these two downgrades were playing catchup to our previous analysis and Goldman’s downgrade two weeks ago. To wit:</p>\n<blockquote>\n <i><b>“We have lowered our Q3 GDP forecast to +5.5%, reflecting hits to both consumer spending and production.</b></i>\n <i>Spending on dining, travel, and some other services is likely to decline in August, though we expect the drop to be modest and brief. Production is still suffering from supply chain disruptions, especially in the auto industry, and this is likely to mean less inventory rebuild in Q3.”</i> –\n <i> Goldman Sachs</i>\n</blockquote>\n<p>Investors should not overlook the importance of these downgrades.</p>\n<p><b>Earnings Estimates At Risk</b></p>\n<p>In our post on<i><b>“Peak Economic And Earnings Growth,</b></i>” we stated that corporate earnings and profits ultimately get derived from economic activity (personal consumption and business investment). Therefore, it is unlikely the currently lofty expectations will get met.</p>\n<p>The problem for investors currently is that analysts’ assumptions are always high, and markets are trading at more extreme valuations, which leaves little room for disappointment. For example, using analyst’s price target assumptions of 4700 for 2020 and current earnings expectations, the S&P is trading 2.6x earnings growth.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c3e58e6641c42d1879c094ce45b2f337\" tg-width=\"896\" tg-height=\"647\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Such puts the current P/E at 25.6x earnings in 2020, which is still expensive by historical measures.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d4abafc44c03ff687ce87c361a1f1357\" tg-width=\"886\" tg-height=\"637\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">That also puts the S&P 500 grossly above its linear trend line as earnings growth begins to revert.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ec0a0666e57f65c24037d219876028e2\" tg-width=\"988\" tg-height=\"534\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Through the end of this year, companies will guide down earnings estimates for a variety of reasons:</p>\n<ul>\n <li><p><i>Economic growth won’t be as robust as anticipated.</i></p></li>\n <li><p><i>Potentially higher corporate tax rates could reduce earnings.</i></p></li>\n <li><p><i>The increased input costs due to the stimulus can’t get passed on to consumers.</i></p></li>\n <li><p><i>Higher interest rates increasing borrowing costs which impact earnings.</i></p></li>\n <li><p><i>A weaker consumer than currently expected due to reduced employment and weaker wages.</i></p></li>\n <li><p><i>Global demand weakens due to a stronger dollar impacting exports.</i></p></li>\n</ul>\n<p><b>Such will leave investors once again</b><b><i> “overpaying”</i></b><b> for earnings growth that fails to materialize.</b></p>\n<p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Can The Bulls Defy The Odds Of September Weakness?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nCan The Bulls Defy The Odds Of September Weakness?\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-09-06 20:55 GMT+8 <a href=https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/can-bulls-defy-odds-september-weakness><strong>zerohedge</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>While we had previously discussed that August tends to be one of the weaker months of the year, the bulls defined that weakness posting an almost 3% gain. However, as discussed in our Daily Market ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/can-bulls-defy-odds-september-weakness\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".DJI":"道琼斯","SPY":"标普500ETF",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"source_url":"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/can-bulls-defy-odds-september-weakness","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1136345203","content_text":"While we had previously discussed that August tends to be one of the weaker months of the year, the bulls defined that weakness posting an almost 3% gain. However, as discussed in our Daily Market Commentary on Wednesday:\n\n“August seasonality was a bust with the market advancing 2.6%. Will September seasonality prove to be more accurate?”\n\n\nFor now, the bullish bias remains strong as a barrage of weaker than expected economic data from GDP to manufacturing and employment give hope the Fed may forestall their “tapering” plans. But, as we will discuss in a moment, we think the bulls may be correct for a different reason.\nHowever, in the meantime, the “stairstep” advance continues with fundamentally weak companies making substantial gains as speculation displaces investment in the market. Thus, while prices remain elevated, money flows weaken, suggesting the next downturn is roughly one to two weeks away.So far, those corrections remain limited to the 50-dma, which is approximately 3% lower than Friday’s close, but a 10% correction to the 200-dma remains a possibility.\nWhile there seems to be little concern relative to the market’s advance over the last year, maybe that should be the concern given the sharpness of that advance. I will discuss the history of “market melt-ups” and their eventual outcomes in an upcoming article. However, what is essential to notice is the corresponding ramp in valuations as earnings failto keep up with bullish expectations.\nSignificantly, investors never realize they are in a “melt-up” until after it is over.\nBreadth Remains Weak As Market Advances\nAt the moment, the bullish trend continues, and we must respect that trend for now. However, there are clear signs the advance is beginning to narrow markedly, which has historically served as a warning to investors.\n\n” As shown in the chart below, although the S&P 500 traded at an all-time high as recently as last week, the cumulative advance/decline (A/D) line for the broader NYSE universe peaked on June 11 this year. The divergence between the two looks similar to early-September last year—the point at which it was mostly the “big 5” stocks within the S&P 500 (the “generals”) that had powered the S&P 500 to its September 2, 2020 high.” – Charles Schwab\n\n“The percentage of S&P 500 stocks trading above their 50-day moving averages peaked in April, troughed in June, improved until recently, but has come under pressure again. The same can’t be said for the NASDAQ and Russell 2000, which both peaked in early February, since which time they’ve generally been descending.”\n“Relative to their 200-day moving averages (DMA), all three indexes have been generally trending lower since April, as shown in the second chart below.” – Charles Schwab\nOf course, as we repeat each week, while we are pointing out the warning signs, such does not mean selling everything and going to cash. However, it does serve as a visible warning to adjust your risk exposures accordingly and prepare for a potentially bumpy ride.\n\n“Just because you put on a seatbelt when the plane is landing, doesn’t mean you are going to crash. But is a logic precaution just in case.”\n\nCan The Fed Really Taper?\nWe have noted the rising number of Fed speakers discussing the need to begin “tapering” the Fed’s balance sheet purchases in recent weeks. With employment returning well into what is historically considered “full employment,” surge in job openings, and rising inflation, the need to taper is evident. As noted in our daily market commentary:\n\n“PCE, met expectations rising 0.4% in July. The level was 0.1% below the June reading. \nThe year-over-year rate is 4.2%, which is more than double the Fed’s 2% inflation target.\n Importantly \nit suggests the Fed should be moving to tighten monetary policy.\nHowever, the trimmed-mean PCE was inline at 2% giving the Fed some “wiggle-room” for now, but likely not for long.“\n\nWhile the Fed may have some wiggle room short-term, the trimmed-mean PCE will catch up with PCE over the next month.\nThe point is that the Fed is now getting pushed into needing to tighten monetary policy to quell inflationary pressures. However, a rising risk suggests they may be “trapped” in continuing their bond purchases and risking both an inflationary surge and creating market instability.\nThat risk is the “deficit.”\nWho Is Going To Fund The Deficit\nAs discussed recently, the current mandatory spending of the Government consumes more than 100% of existing tax revenues. Therefore, all discretionary spending plus additional programs such as “infrastructure” and “human infrastructure”comes from debt issuance.\nAs shown, the 2021 budget will push the current deficit towards $4-Trillion requiring the Federal Reserve to monetize at least $1 Trillion of that issuance per our previous analysis.\n\nThe scale and scope of government spending expansion in the last year are unprecedented. Because Uncle Sam doesn’t have the money, lots of it went on the government’s credit card. The deficit and debt skyrocketed. But this is only the beginning. \nThe Biden administration recently proposed a $6 trillion budget for fiscal 2022, two-thirds of which would be borrowed.” –\nReason\n\n\nThe CBO (Congressional Budget Office) recently produced its long-term debt projection through 2050, ensuring poor economic returns. I reconstructed a chart from Deutsche Bank showing the US Federal Debt and Federal Reserve balance sheet. The chart uses the CBO projections through 2050.\n\nThe federal debt load will climb from $28 trillion to roughly $140 trillion at the current growth rate by 2050.\nThe problem, of course, is that the Fed must continue monetizing 30% of debt issuance to keep interest rates from surging and wrecking the economy.\nLet than sink in for a minute.\nIf that is indeed the case, the Fed will not be able to “taper” their balance sheet purchases unless they are willing to risk a surge in interest rates, a collapse in economic growth, and a deflationary spiral.\nAs Expected Q3-GDP Gets Slashed\nSince the beginning of this year, we have penned several articles stating that economic growth would ultimately disappoint when fueled by an artificial stimulus. Specifically, we noted that “bonds were sending an economic warning.” To wit:\n\n“\nAs shown, the correlation between rates and the economic composite suggests that current expectations of sustained economic expansion and rising inflation are overly optimistic.\n At current rates, economic growth will likely very quickly rturn to sub-2% growth by 2022.”\n\nThe disappointment of economic growth is also a function of the surging debt and deficit levels, which, as noted above, will have to be entirely funded by the Federal Reserve.\nOn Thursday, both the Atlanta Fed and Morgan Stanley slashed their estimates for Q3 growth as economic data continues to disappoint.\n\n“The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the third quarter of 2021 is \n3.7\n \npercent\non September 2, \ndown from 5.3 percent on September 1\n.” – Atlanta Fed\n\nNotably, there were significant downward revisions to consumption and investment, declining from 2.6% and 23.4% to 1.9% and 19.3%, respectively. However, as we noted previously, such is not surprising as “stimulus” leaves the system, and the economic drivers return to normalcy.\nMorgan and Goldman As Well\nAs stated, Morgan Stanely also slashed their estimates:\n\n“\nWe are revising down 3Q GDP tracking to 2.9% from 6.5%, previously\n. Our forecast for 4Q GDP remains at 6.7%. The revision to 3Q implies full year 4Q/4Q GDP at 5.6% (5.7%Y) this year – 1.4pp lower than the Fed’s forecast of 7.0% in its June Summary of Economic Projections (SEP), and 0.7pp below Bloomberg consensus of economists at 6.3%.\n\n\nAn examination of the data reveals that the slowdown is not broad-based and primarily reflects payback from stimulus spending as well as continued supply chain bottlenecks.\n The swing factor is largest in spending on big-ticket durable goods that benefited most from stimulus checks and are affected most by lack of inventory and price increases due to supply shortages, for example motor vehicles.”\n\nAs we discussed previously, these two downgrades were playing catchup to our previous analysis and Goldman’s downgrade two weeks ago. To wit:\n\n“We have lowered our Q3 GDP forecast to +5.5%, reflecting hits to both consumer spending and production.\nSpending on dining, travel, and some other services is likely to decline in August, though we expect the drop to be modest and brief. Production is still suffering from supply chain disruptions, especially in the auto industry, and this is likely to mean less inventory rebuild in Q3.” –\n Goldman Sachs\n\nInvestors should not overlook the importance of these downgrades.\nEarnings Estimates At Risk\nIn our post on“Peak Economic And Earnings Growth,” we stated that corporate earnings and profits ultimately get derived from economic activity (personal consumption and business investment). Therefore, it is unlikely the currently lofty expectations will get met.\nThe problem for investors currently is that analysts’ assumptions are always high, and markets are trading at more extreme valuations, which leaves little room for disappointment. For example, using analyst’s price target assumptions of 4700 for 2020 and current earnings expectations, the S&P is trading 2.6x earnings growth.\nSuch puts the current P/E at 25.6x earnings in 2020, which is still expensive by historical measures.\nThat also puts the S&P 500 grossly above its linear trend line as earnings growth begins to revert.\nThrough the end of this year, companies will guide down earnings estimates for a variety of reasons:\n\nEconomic growth won’t be as robust as anticipated.\nPotentially higher corporate tax rates could reduce earnings.\nThe increased input costs due to the stimulus can’t get passed on to consumers.\nHigher interest rates increasing borrowing costs which impact earnings.\nA weaker consumer than currently expected due to reduced employment and weaker wages.\nGlobal demand weakens due to a stronger dollar impacting exports.\n\nSuch will leave investors once again “overpaying” for earnings growth that fails to materialize.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":301,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}
