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老王很正直
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老王很正直
04-25
$好未来(TAL)$
起飞吧!
老王很正直
2023-04-11
$哔哩哔哩(BILI)$
烂泥扶不上墙
老王很正直
2022-07-26
$好未来(TAL)$
马上财报了,要跑吗兄弟们
老王很正直
2022-06-24
$哔哩哔哩(BILI)$
烂泥扶不上墙
老王很正直
2022-04-04
$Twitter(TWTR)$
让我看看有多少人准备好站岗了[开心]
老王很正直
2021-06-02
$烯石电车新材料(06128)$
这股完犊子了吗
老王很正直
2021-04-27
$Naked Brand Group Inc(NAKD)$
这股在这边好像没什么人气
老王很正直
2021-04-21
的确
自动驾驶需要一场泡沫
老王很正直
2021-04-19
$Naked Brand Group Inc(NAKD)$
内心没有一丝波澜,甚至有点想笑
老王很正直
2021-04-16
$Naked Brand Group Inc(NAKD)$
凉了
老王很正直
2021-03-25
$Vector Acquisition Corp(VACQ)$
渣渣 马上跌到三月之前的水平了
老王很正直
2021-03-25
$Naked Brand Group Inc(NAKD)$
这只垃圾只跌不涨呢
老王很正直
2021-03-02
$NanoViricides Inc.(NNVC)$
这么少交易量就拉这么高了,是套吧
老王很正直
2021-03-02
$Vector Acquisition Corp(VACQ)$
这个和后缀corporation的那只有什么区别?
老王很正直
2021-02-27
去年的业绩对于今年的看空已经没有太大的参考意义,当然 没人希望它空
抱歉,原内容已删除
老王很正直
2021-02-26
$云米科技(VIOT)$
wsb概念股[开心]
老王很正直
2021-02-26
$云米科技(VIOT)$
这才是价值回归[龇牙]
老王很正直
2021-02-25
$保利协鑫能源(03800)$
别tm装了,又在套人[龇牙]
老王很正直
2021-02-23
$云米科技(VIOT)$
12再次建仓
老王很正直
2021-02-23
$趣店(QD)$
赶紧下穿30日线 老子补仓
去老虎APP查看更多动态
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","text":"$Twitter(TWTR)$让我看看有多少人准备好站岗了[开心]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/619134157","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":892,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":113142421,"gmtCreate":1622599949663,"gmtModify":1622600142930,"author":{"id":"3570774907087838","authorId":"3570774907087838","name":"老王很正直","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/21265033307b198654d44a0fb71995a5","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/06128\">$烯石电车新材料(06128)$</a>这股完犊子了吗","listText":"<a 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Inc(NAKD)$这股在这边好像没什么人气","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/377871980","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1826,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":378883226,"gmtCreate":1619015572665,"gmtModify":1619015572665,"author":{"id":"3570774907087838","authorId":"3570774907087838","name":"老王很正直","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/21265033307b198654d44a0fb71995a5","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"的确","listText":"的确","text":"的确","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/378883226","repostId":"2129871712","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2129871712","pubTimestamp":1619010672,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2129871712?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-04-21 21:11","market":"sh","language":"zh","title":"自动驾驶需要一场泡沫","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2129871712","media":"格隆汇","summary":"多一份冷静好。","content":"<p>一个行业有“钱景”,必然引发一阵“骚乱”。</p>\n<p>十年前是<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/5RE.SI\">智能</a>手机,现在是智能汽车。作为智能汽车最引人注目的应用,自动驾驶无疑最能撩拨产业界的神经。现在,除了<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">特斯拉</a>、Google、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BIDU\">百度</a>这些先行者,连华为也进来了,并放出要吊打<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">特斯拉</a>的豪言。</p>\n<p>吊不吊打特斯拉有待验证,但是华为带来的自动驾驶首先在股市牵起一阵热潮。多个概念股相继涨停。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e90c8e408a27094af0ec585715f7e80c\" tg-width=\"751\" tg-height=\"391\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p><b>从产业前景看,自动驾驶是星辰大海,但是从资本投入来看,它也可能成为吞噬一切的黑洞。</b></p>\n<h3>1</h3>\n<h3><b>双寡头还是百家争鸣?</b></h3>\n<p>计算机革命开启了电子业硬件、软件各自独立又相互依存的格局,智能手机承载了这个衣钵,到现在的智能汽车,很自然会照葫芦画瓢。</p>\n<p>于是,在自动驾驶系统上,出现类似<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">苹果</a>封闭IOS系统和Google开放安卓系统的局面,代表有特斯拉FSD和Google Waymo。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4814e0363c668a26061448ae4aa6a3fd\" tg-width=\"830\" tg-height=\"225\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>但是,和手机操作系统稳定的双寡头格局不同的是,除了特斯拉和Google,还有很多其他的参与者,软硬件通吃的厂商就有通用、小鹏,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BIDU\">百度</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">苹果</a>也说要造车,软件厂商就更多了,名气大如华为,小一点的有Pony.ai、Nuro.ai、图森未来等,图森未来更成为首家登陆美股的自动驾驶软件厂商。</p>\n<p><b>所以,有人提出自动驾驶不应该只有“IOS”和“安卓”,而是百家争鸣的局面。</b></p>\n<p>这种说法也不是没有道理,从理论上讲,智能手机操作系统只需要搭建基础的框架,其他的应用有待开发者去完善,之后再形成完善的生态系统。</p>\n<p>开发者不需要是操作系统公司,可以是第三方公司,觉得哪些功能有需求,就自己在源代码的基础上开发APP,这就类似于政府把地块整理好,把自己应该承担的基础设施建设好,然后供地产商在上面建住宅也好,建商场也行,建厂房、建写字楼都行,最终形成完善的城市设施。</p>\n<p>而且,手机的应用场景非常多,金融的、购物的、社交的、娱乐的,全都给操作系统公司做,等于城市的所有设施都让政府建,这将相当费劲和相当低效,倒不如把这些任务交给第三方开发者,同时让他们分享成果,一旦和众多的开发者、用户绑定在一起,就很容易形成垄断优势,新进入的操作系统就很难有生存空间。</p>\n<p><b>这是妥妥的三赢。</b></p>\n<p>但是,自动驾驶系统不一样,作为用户,你总不能拿到一个“裸系统”,然后再自己去安装刹车APP、方向盘APP、自动泊车APP吧,这得是多差的用户体验?要是忘记安装哪个APP,是不是意味着自动驾驶不了了?更要命的是,忘了装刹车APP就开自动上路,万一该刹车时不刹,那不等于拿人命开玩笑?</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/eb1e4e0bea9f608af01271f29b74384f\" tg-width=\"830\" tg-height=\"376\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>换句话说,<b>开发商给到用户的,不应该是一个仅仅整理好的“地块”,也不应该只建了部分基础设施的“地块”,而应该是一座具备完善设施的“城市”。</b>所以,自动驾驶系统一出来就应该是完善的,不能缺胳膊少腿,也不能寄希望于由第三方去完善,除非是一些非关键性的、加强体验性质的东西。</p>\n<p>另外,自动驾驶系统的功能相对单一,只是替代人去开车,不像手机有着太宽泛的应用,所以开发商本身也应该具备提供完善自动驾驶系统解决方案的能力。</p>\n<p>当然,作为开发商,在开发模式上,可以先做好基础架构,然后允许第三方开发者在上面添砖加瓦,事实上,百度就是这么做的,Apollo平台已经聚集了超过4.5万的开发者,这些做法并不矛盾,因为只要交付的是完善的系统方案即可。</p>\n<p>这么看来,自动驾驶系统好像真没必要一家或者两家独大,百家争鸣可能更有利于竞争,最终让消费者获益。相信这个逻辑也影响着众多入局自动驾驶的公司,给了他们前赴后继的勇气。</p>\n<p>事情果真如此吗?</p>\n<h3>2</h3>\n<h3><b>百家争鸣真的可以实现?</b></h3>\n<p>商业社会,<b>质量、成本、效率</b>是永远绕不开的“三角关系”。</p>\n<p>谁都希望得到“双高一低”--高质量、高效率同时低成本,但实际情况,<b>这是“不可能三角”,顶多只能得到其中两个。</b>把这个框架放在自动驾驶的百家争鸣上,冲突就随之而来。</p>\n<p>不同开发商的人才、资金、技术储备、开发效率都不一样,都来做这个事,重复开发不说,对各种资源的消耗,以及有可能出现的恶性竞争,显然和低成本背道而驰;即使每个开发商都能做出一样的质量、一样的成本,效率上也会有快慢,资金充足、人才丰富的会快一点,相反就有可能会慢一点;而如果既要高质量,又要高效率,那就得比拼谁的钱多,不同开发商手头的资金、融资能力、融资成本也是千差万别。</p>\n<p><b>不管从哪个角度看,都是既要又要还要的事,所以理论上不应该存在过多的自动驾驶系统开发商。</b></p>\n<p>只是,从开发商的角度,看法可能完全相反。</p>\n<p>在智能汽车最重要的应用场景,没有厂商希望自己变成局外人,如果在这场竞赛中能够最终获胜,那都是白花花的银子,这是相当有诱惑力的事情。往更长远的方向讲,传统造车有可能因为拥有自动驾驶开发能力,在汽车业的淘汰赛中占据主动,新势力也一样,软件公司则因为自动驾驶而开辟了新的蓝海。</p>\n<p>而且,现在新兴的产业机会并不多,好不容易等来了汽车业百年未有之大变局,当然要去搏杀,一开始就作壁上观,看着大好机会白白溜走,不是件好受的事。</p>\n<p>何况,现在才刚开战,胜负未分,敢于入场厮杀的公司,都不是吃素的,论资金、论人才、论技术储备,虽有差异,但说不上谁一定赢,谁一定输。既然如此,早早就退出,将市场拱手让人,这不是做生意应该有的姿态,即使最后战死,也好过一开始就做逃兵。</p>\n<p>公说公有理,婆说婆有理,最后只有交给市场。</p>\n<p>展望未来,从参与者的角度看,因为<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/YJ\">云集</a>了太多开发商,自动驾驶市场将会非常热闹;从竞争的角度看,自动驾驶市场将上演残酷的厮杀;从路径发展上看,很可能是大佬入局--资本砸钱--泡沫催化--泡沫形成--泡沫破灭--涅槃重生。</p>\n<p><b>自动驾驶需要一场泡沫,也应该有一场泡沫。</b></p>\n<p>从资本的角度看,自动驾驶大概率会先来一场资本盛宴,然后演变成一场资本泡沫,最后泡沫破灭之后,走出了真正的强者。</p>\n<p><b>对于国家、产业、消费者和最后走出的强者,这场泡沫是“白洞”,因为它造就了百年汽车最重大的革命;而对于因此而倒下的开发商和资本方,这场泡沫将是巨大的“黑洞”,吞噬一切。</b></p>\n<h3>3</h3>\n<h3><b>作为投资者,应该干嘛?</b></h3>\n<p>言归投资,要避免掉进“黑洞”,就需要寻找产业链里最有价值的东西,有两个值得重点跟进。</p>\n<p>第一,<b>AI芯片和算法</b>,现在的竞争格局,基本成了巨头们的角力场,而且都是两者通吃,特斯拉有FSD芯片和算法,百度有昆仑芯片和Apollo,华为有麒麟芯片和鸿蒙,连小鹏也说要自研芯片,和自己的NGP形成呼应。所以,不管软件公司还是整车厂,如果没有足够实力同时拿下芯片和算法,却要声称自研自动驾驶系统,这类公司很可能掉队。</p>\n<p>当然,对于整车厂而言,并非个个都要自己做自动驾驶系统,可以选择购买其他软件厂商的系统,自己则专注于整车设计、生产、基建、营销、售后等环节,也不失为好的策略。</p>\n<p>自动驾驶的研发是烧钱的活儿,AI芯片和算法人才也都非常紧缺,巨头们都在第一时间锁住人才,论财力,巨头们也不缺。如果后面才介入,基本连汤都难喝到。</p>\n<p>所以,押注这个领域,除了巨头,貌似也没其他选择了。</p>\n<p>第二,<b>激光雷达</b>,“格隆汇研究”公众号在前期的文章《激光雷达,自动驾驶赛道的新宠儿》做过专门的分析,这里不再赘述。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c9ef019c47d40b874ba2dc071fa8f576\" tg-width=\"831\" tg-height=\"341\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">只讲一个最简单的底层逻辑,自动驾驶是人命关天的大事,对行驶过程中周遭的环境感知必须非常灵敏、精准和全面,而激光雷达这方面有着天然优势,远比摄像头、超声波雷达、毫米波雷达要牛。此前,激光雷达因为价格过万而被质疑商业化能力,现在华为已经成功将成本降到几百块的“白菜价”,量产障碍扫除,按照中国人做生意的脾性,后面会陆陆续续出现更多的激光雷达厂家。</p>\n<p>如果觉得这两个赛道太拥挤,也可以寻找一些细分领域有亮点公司,比如<b>专注做卡车自动驾驶系统的开发商</b>,这个领域有意思的地方在于,卡车的行驶场景和路线可以相对简单、固定,比如点对点的高速公路货运、港口装卸区的来回、工厂区的货物上下,这些地方容易实现人车分离,在港口区或者工厂区建空中行人区,人和车在空间上完全隔离,车上就没必要坐人,车撞人的概率就可以极大地降低。即使车撞上了,损失的是货物,不至于死人,因为人命才值钱。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5086df362e7f1465bf4f44805d8d61de\" tg-width=\"831\" tg-height=\"536\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>这些公司的领导人懂得,和巨头拼资金、拼人才,不一定拼得过,所以不如选择差异化路线,深入挖掘一下巨头暂时忽略的细分领域,开发难度、开发成本、竞争压力会相对低一些。退一万步讲,即使哪天巨头们后知后觉,要大举杀入的时候,自己还可以凭借长期的积累,保留被巨头收编的资格。</p>\n<h3>4</h3>\n<h3><b>结语</b></h3>\n<p>自动驾驶的出现,实现汽车业过去一百年都没能实现的事情,这是足够大的生意,也是足够大、足够多的投资机会。</p>\n<p><b>但是,这些赛道仍然有很多等待突破的东西,有许多需要商业化落地和检验的东西,在这些东西没有明朗化之前,投资的坑是非常多的,借信息不对称,借投资者不明就里的时间窗口,趁机割韭菜的人,多的是。</b></p>\n<p>对于投资者而言,如果有能力在早期就看透底层逻辑,发掘到投资机会,可以大胆押注;等到形势明朗化,出现向上拐点,或者出现爆发迹象之时,再押注,也不会晚;在狂热期,泡沫吹大之时,有能力跟随泡沫起舞的,也不失为押注时机,但如果没有能力急流勇退,还是多一份冷静好。</p>\n<p><b>现在,也正需要这样一份冷静。</b></p>","source":"gelonghui_highlight","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>自动驾驶需要一场泡沫</title>\n<style 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margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n自动驾驶需要一场泡沫\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-04-21 21:11 北京时间 <a href=http://www.gelonghui.com/p/461708><strong>格隆汇</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>一个行业有“钱景”,必然引发一阵“骚乱”。\n十年前是智能手机,现在是智能汽车。作为智能汽车最引人注目的应用,自动驾驶无疑最能撩拨产业界的神经。现在,除了特斯拉、Google、百度这些先行者,连华为也进来了,并放出要吊打特斯拉的豪言。\n吊不吊打特斯拉有待验证,但是华为带来的自动驾驶首先在股市牵起一阵热潮。多个概念股相继涨停。\n\n从产业前景看,自动驾驶是星辰大海,但是从资本投入来看,它也可能成为吞噬...</p>\n\n<a href=\"http://www.gelonghui.com/p/461708\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e90c8e408a27094af0ec585715f7e80c","relate_stocks":{"TSLA":"特斯拉","GOOG":"谷歌","BIDU":"百度"},"source_url":"http://www.gelonghui.com/p/461708","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/6b8fa6424aebe95f6781d04ef17a1852","article_id":"2129871712","content_text":"一个行业有“钱景”,必然引发一阵“骚乱”。\n十年前是智能手机,现在是智能汽车。作为智能汽车最引人注目的应用,自动驾驶无疑最能撩拨产业界的神经。现在,除了特斯拉、Google、百度这些先行者,连华为也进来了,并放出要吊打特斯拉的豪言。\n吊不吊打特斯拉有待验证,但是华为带来的自动驾驶首先在股市牵起一阵热潮。多个概念股相继涨停。\n\n从产业前景看,自动驾驶是星辰大海,但是从资本投入来看,它也可能成为吞噬一切的黑洞。\n1\n双寡头还是百家争鸣?\n计算机革命开启了电子业硬件、软件各自独立又相互依存的格局,智能手机承载了这个衣钵,到现在的智能汽车,很自然会照葫芦画瓢。\n于是,在自动驾驶系统上,出现类似苹果封闭IOS系统和Google开放安卓系统的局面,代表有特斯拉FSD和Google Waymo。\n\n但是,和手机操作系统稳定的双寡头格局不同的是,除了特斯拉和Google,还有很多其他的参与者,软硬件通吃的厂商就有通用、小鹏,百度、苹果也说要造车,软件厂商就更多了,名气大如华为,小一点的有Pony.ai、Nuro.ai、图森未来等,图森未来更成为首家登陆美股的自动驾驶软件厂商。\n所以,有人提出自动驾驶不应该只有“IOS”和“安卓”,而是百家争鸣的局面。\n这种说法也不是没有道理,从理论上讲,智能手机操作系统只需要搭建基础的框架,其他的应用有待开发者去完善,之后再形成完善的生态系统。\n开发者不需要是操作系统公司,可以是第三方公司,觉得哪些功能有需求,就自己在源代码的基础上开发APP,这就类似于政府把地块整理好,把自己应该承担的基础设施建设好,然后供地产商在上面建住宅也好,建商场也行,建厂房、建写字楼都行,最终形成完善的城市设施。\n而且,手机的应用场景非常多,金融的、购物的、社交的、娱乐的,全都给操作系统公司做,等于城市的所有设施都让政府建,这将相当费劲和相当低效,倒不如把这些任务交给第三方开发者,同时让他们分享成果,一旦和众多的开发者、用户绑定在一起,就很容易形成垄断优势,新进入的操作系统就很难有生存空间。\n这是妥妥的三赢。\n但是,自动驾驶系统不一样,作为用户,你总不能拿到一个“裸系统”,然后再自己去安装刹车APP、方向盘APP、自动泊车APP吧,这得是多差的用户体验?要是忘记安装哪个APP,是不是意味着自动驾驶不了了?更要命的是,忘了装刹车APP就开自动上路,万一该刹车时不刹,那不等于拿人命开玩笑?\n\n换句话说,开发商给到用户的,不应该是一个仅仅整理好的“地块”,也不应该只建了部分基础设施的“地块”,而应该是一座具备完善设施的“城市”。所以,自动驾驶系统一出来就应该是完善的,不能缺胳膊少腿,也不能寄希望于由第三方去完善,除非是一些非关键性的、加强体验性质的东西。\n另外,自动驾驶系统的功能相对单一,只是替代人去开车,不像手机有着太宽泛的应用,所以开发商本身也应该具备提供完善自动驾驶系统解决方案的能力。\n当然,作为开发商,在开发模式上,可以先做好基础架构,然后允许第三方开发者在上面添砖加瓦,事实上,百度就是这么做的,Apollo平台已经聚集了超过4.5万的开发者,这些做法并不矛盾,因为只要交付的是完善的系统方案即可。\n这么看来,自动驾驶系统好像真没必要一家或者两家独大,百家争鸣可能更有利于竞争,最终让消费者获益。相信这个逻辑也影响着众多入局自动驾驶的公司,给了他们前赴后继的勇气。\n事情果真如此吗?\n2\n百家争鸣真的可以实现?\n商业社会,质量、成本、效率是永远绕不开的“三角关系”。\n谁都希望得到“双高一低”--高质量、高效率同时低成本,但实际情况,这是“不可能三角”,顶多只能得到其中两个。把这个框架放在自动驾驶的百家争鸣上,冲突就随之而来。\n不同开发商的人才、资金、技术储备、开发效率都不一样,都来做这个事,重复开发不说,对各种资源的消耗,以及有可能出现的恶性竞争,显然和低成本背道而驰;即使每个开发商都能做出一样的质量、一样的成本,效率上也会有快慢,资金充足、人才丰富的会快一点,相反就有可能会慢一点;而如果既要高质量,又要高效率,那就得比拼谁的钱多,不同开发商手头的资金、融资能力、融资成本也是千差万别。\n不管从哪个角度看,都是既要又要还要的事,所以理论上不应该存在过多的自动驾驶系统开发商。\n只是,从开发商的角度,看法可能完全相反。\n在智能汽车最重要的应用场景,没有厂商希望自己变成局外人,如果在这场竞赛中能够最终获胜,那都是白花花的银子,这是相当有诱惑力的事情。往更长远的方向讲,传统造车有可能因为拥有自动驾驶开发能力,在汽车业的淘汰赛中占据主动,新势力也一样,软件公司则因为自动驾驶而开辟了新的蓝海。\n而且,现在新兴的产业机会并不多,好不容易等来了汽车业百年未有之大变局,当然要去搏杀,一开始就作壁上观,看着大好机会白白溜走,不是件好受的事。\n何况,现在才刚开战,胜负未分,敢于入场厮杀的公司,都不是吃素的,论资金、论人才、论技术储备,虽有差异,但说不上谁一定赢,谁一定输。既然如此,早早就退出,将市场拱手让人,这不是做生意应该有的姿态,即使最后战死,也好过一开始就做逃兵。\n公说公有理,婆说婆有理,最后只有交给市场。\n展望未来,从参与者的角度看,因为云集了太多开发商,自动驾驶市场将会非常热闹;从竞争的角度看,自动驾驶市场将上演残酷的厮杀;从路径发展上看,很可能是大佬入局--资本砸钱--泡沫催化--泡沫形成--泡沫破灭--涅槃重生。\n自动驾驶需要一场泡沫,也应该有一场泡沫。\n从资本的角度看,自动驾驶大概率会先来一场资本盛宴,然后演变成一场资本泡沫,最后泡沫破灭之后,走出了真正的强者。\n对于国家、产业、消费者和最后走出的强者,这场泡沫是“白洞”,因为它造就了百年汽车最重大的革命;而对于因此而倒下的开发商和资本方,这场泡沫将是巨大的“黑洞”,吞噬一切。\n3\n作为投资者,应该干嘛?\n言归投资,要避免掉进“黑洞”,就需要寻找产业链里最有价值的东西,有两个值得重点跟进。\n第一,AI芯片和算法,现在的竞争格局,基本成了巨头们的角力场,而且都是两者通吃,特斯拉有FSD芯片和算法,百度有昆仑芯片和Apollo,华为有麒麟芯片和鸿蒙,连小鹏也说要自研芯片,和自己的NGP形成呼应。所以,不管软件公司还是整车厂,如果没有足够实力同时拿下芯片和算法,却要声称自研自动驾驶系统,这类公司很可能掉队。\n当然,对于整车厂而言,并非个个都要自己做自动驾驶系统,可以选择购买其他软件厂商的系统,自己则专注于整车设计、生产、基建、营销、售后等环节,也不失为好的策略。\n自动驾驶的研发是烧钱的活儿,AI芯片和算法人才也都非常紧缺,巨头们都在第一时间锁住人才,论财力,巨头们也不缺。如果后面才介入,基本连汤都难喝到。\n所以,押注这个领域,除了巨头,貌似也没其他选择了。\n第二,激光雷达,“格隆汇研究”公众号在前期的文章《激光雷达,自动驾驶赛道的新宠儿》做过专门的分析,这里不再赘述。\n只讲一个最简单的底层逻辑,自动驾驶是人命关天的大事,对行驶过程中周遭的环境感知必须非常灵敏、精准和全面,而激光雷达这方面有着天然优势,远比摄像头、超声波雷达、毫米波雷达要牛。此前,激光雷达因为价格过万而被质疑商业化能力,现在华为已经成功将成本降到几百块的“白菜价”,量产障碍扫除,按照中国人做生意的脾性,后面会陆陆续续出现更多的激光雷达厂家。\n如果觉得这两个赛道太拥挤,也可以寻找一些细分领域有亮点公司,比如专注做卡车自动驾驶系统的开发商,这个领域有意思的地方在于,卡车的行驶场景和路线可以相对简单、固定,比如点对点的高速公路货运、港口装卸区的来回、工厂区的货物上下,这些地方容易实现人车分离,在港口区或者工厂区建空中行人区,人和车在空间上完全隔离,车上就没必要坐人,车撞人的概率就可以极大地降低。即使车撞上了,损失的是货物,不至于死人,因为人命才值钱。\n\n这些公司的领导人懂得,和巨头拼资金、拼人才,不一定拼得过,所以不如选择差异化路线,深入挖掘一下巨头暂时忽略的细分领域,开发难度、开发成本、竞争压力会相对低一些。退一万步讲,即使哪天巨头们后知后觉,要大举杀入的时候,自己还可以凭借长期的积累,保留被巨头收编的资格。\n4\n结语\n自动驾驶的出现,实现汽车业过去一百年都没能实现的事情,这是足够大的生意,也是足够大、足够多的投资机会。\n但是,这些赛道仍然有很多等待突破的东西,有许多需要商业化落地和检验的东西,在这些东西没有明朗化之前,投资的坑是非常多的,借信息不对称,借投资者不明就里的时间窗口,趁机割韭菜的人,多的是。\n对于投资者而言,如果有能力在早期就看透底层逻辑,发掘到投资机会,可以大胆押注;等到形势明朗化,出现向上拐点,或者出现爆发迹象之时,再押注,也不会晚;在狂热期,泡沫吹大之时,有能力跟随泡沫起舞的,也不失为押注时机,但如果没有能力急流勇退,还是多一份冷静好。\n现在,也正需要这样一份冷静。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1972,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":373869403,"gmtCreate":1618839289502,"gmtModify":1618839289502,"author":{"id":"3570774907087838","authorId":"3570774907087838","name":"老王很正直","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/21265033307b198654d44a0fb71995a5","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a 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href=http://xhpfmapi.zhongguowangshi.com/vh512/share/9643455?channel=weixin><strong>新华网</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>12月28日,今日泡泡玛特盘中一度大跌超15%,近日,新华社发文评价盲盒经济,文中称,盲盒不仅成为一个经济现象,也反映了当下中国年轻人,特别是“95后”一代的心理和生活状态。惊喜和期待的背后,“盲盒热”所带来的上瘾和赌博心理也在滋生畸形消费,不少盲盒爱好者每月花费不菲,正所谓“一入盲盒深似海,从此钱包是路人”。对此专家建议,家长和老师应引导未成年人形成良好消费观,避免误入消费圈套。同时,监管部门应...</p>\n\n<a href=\"http://xhpfmapi.zhongguowangshi.com/vh512/share/9643455?channel=weixin\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/35102a1b6260a1358937746487cafa42","relate_stocks":{"09992":"泡泡玛特"},"source_url":"http://xhpfmapi.zhongguowangshi.com/vh512/share/9643455?channel=weixin","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1172423226","content_text":"12月28日,今日泡泡玛特盘中一度大跌超15%,近日,新华社发文评价盲盒经济,文中称,盲盒不仅成为一个经济现象,也反映了当下中国年轻人,特别是“95后”一代的心理和生活状态。惊喜和期待的背后,“盲盒热”所带来的上瘾和赌博心理也在滋生畸形消费,不少盲盒爱好者每月花费不菲,正所谓“一入盲盒深似海,从此钱包是路人”。对此专家建议,家长和老师应引导未成年人形成良好消费观,避免误入消费圈套。同时,监管部门应进一步规范盲盒经营模式,避免其畸形发展,给社会和青少年成长带来负面影响。当下年轻人的心理和生活状态“90后”庄楚娴在大四那年收获了第一个盲盒——Sonny Angel动物系列的一只小羊玩偶,此后她不断期待着更多玩偶的到来。五年里,她共收集了30多个不同系列、造型各异的玩偶。“我把这些玩具错落有致地摆放在书桌和窗台上,感觉找回了童心。”庄楚娴说,她会随身携带着那只小羊玩偶,不管是出国读书,还是外出旅游,它就像一个很好的伴侣。盲盒就是在盒子中放置不同样式的玩偶,消费者凭借运气抽取,有时抽到重复的固定款,有时则抽到心仪款或者隐藏款。这种随机化的体验让不少年轻人感到新鲜刺激,选择“入坑”。消费者通过盲盒自动售卖机上抽盲盒。新华社记者 陆浩 摄天猫2019年发布的《95后玩家剁手力榜单》显示,手办超过潮鞋和电竞成为“95后”热度最高的爱好之一,过去一年在国内知名电商平台上,大约20万消费者在盲盒上的花费超过2万元人民币。跟踪玩具市场动向的头豹研究院数据显示,国内盲盒市场市值已超过25亿元人民币,2014年至2018年的年均复合增长率达15.6%。抽到的盲盒。新华社记者 陆浩 摄盲盒不仅成为一个经济现象,也反映了当下中国年轻人,特别是“95后”一代的心理和生活状态。华南师范大学心理学院副教授韦文琦对记者表示,对学生和上班族来说,写一篇论文做一个项目往往需要较长时间才能完成,盲盒的即时性能让消费者在当下就得到满足,“在物质丰富的时代,比起实用价值,年轻人更注重物品带给自己的情绪价值。”一个盲盒的售价在49元到79元人民币不等,也有上百元的。不少玩家表示,花几十元获取一个小快乐挺值得的。盲盒不仅是一个玩具,还是一种能够满足归属与爱等需求的媒介。特别是对于面临社交恐惧症等问题的年轻群体而言,盲盒不仅给予他们精神寄托,更带给他们认识朋友的机会。消费者在盲盒自动售卖机上挑选想要的盲盒系列。新华社记者 陆浩 摄韦文琦说,玩家们可以交换重复的盲盒,或者在二手市场买到盲盒,玩家们在自己的圈子谈论着共同的兴趣和话题,“在越来越宅的信息化时代,许多年轻人通过抽盲盒结识了许多志趣相投的朋友,在盲盒的圈子里面找到了归属感。”对年轻人而言,盲盒更是承载了他们这代人的记忆。从过去装在方便面里的水浒卡片,到后来的福袋、扭蛋,甚至在电子游戏里抽游戏皮肤,各种类型的盲盒不仅伴随着他们的成长,也成为他们情感的寄托。正如电影《阿甘正传》里所说:“人生就像一盒巧克力,你永远不知道下一块是什么味道。”其实盲盒也像一盒巧克力,买家也不知道打开下一个盲盒会不会有自己想要的。年轻人在线下的潮玩店内抽盲盒。新华社记者 陆浩 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