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2021-06-25

So bullish on $MU, to the moon

These 3 Stocks Will Double -- If You Trust Wall Street's Bulls

2021-06-20

Bullish from $ADBE

Adobe Getting Lift From Economic Reopening Post-Pandemic

2021-06-18

Bullish on $NIO

NIO Is Winning

2021-06-18

Bullish on $PLTR

抱歉，原内容已删除

2021-06-18

Bullish on $UPST

抱歉，原内容已删除

2021-05-16

Bullish on $PLUG

抱歉，原内容已删除

2021-04-29

Interesting

NIO Q1 2021 Earnings Report Preview: What to Look For

2021-03-12

Good

Roblox Builds The Metaverse

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bullish on $MU, to the moon","listText":"So bullish on $MU, to the moon","text":"So bullish on $MU, to the moon","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/122421186","repostId":"2146073358","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2146073358","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1624628400,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2146073358?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-25 21:40","market":"us","language":"en","title":"These 3 Stocks Will Double -- If You Trust Wall Street's Bulls","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2146073358","media":"Motley Fool","summary":"Looking for big winners can be a rewarding pursuit.","content":"<blockquote>\n Looking for big winners can be a rewarding pursuit.\n</blockquote>\n<p>Most investors find that the bulk of their returns come from just a few of their investments. When you can find stocks that have the potential to produce amazing results, it can be a game changer for your entire investing strategy.</p>\n<p>Wall Street analysts definitely aren't the end-all and be-all of investing. They're just as fallible as any other investor. However, using analyst research as a starting point for your own consideration of a stock can be a smart move.</p>\n<p>Below, we'll take a closer look at threetech stocksthat Wall Street's most optimistic analysts believe will double, with an eye toward deciding whether their bullish views are realistic.</p>\n<h3>1. Baidu</h3>\n<p><b>Baidu</b>(NASDAQ:BIDU)has been a stock market favorite for a long time, but the stock has been exceptionally volatile in recent years. The Chinese internet-search specialist saw its share price soar from 2013 to 2018, only to lose 75% between 2018 and 2020. Even in just the past several months, Baidu's stock has been exceptionally volatile, with shares tripling between October and February and then falling by nearly half since then.</p>\n<p>Some analysts are still optimistic about Baidu's prospects. With shares trading at around $195, the top price target on Wall Street, which comes from<b>Barclays</b>, is $400 per share. That would be more than a double from current levels.</p>\n<p>The key to Baidu's renaissance in the eyes of Barclays is its success in working on artificial intelligence and cloud computing. For years,Baidu coasted on its internet-search success, allowing its peers in the Chinese internet space to pass it by. However, Barclays is optimistic that Baidu can catch up, with initiatives like the Apollo software platform for autonomous vehicles paving the way for new growth.</p>\n<p>Concerns that Baidu and other Chinese stocks might get delisted from U.S. stock exchanges are fading fast, and that's cluing value investors into the potential these companies have. WithBaidu offering a relative bargain, the Chinese internet stock looks attractive.</p>\n<h3>2. Micron Technology</h3>\n<p>Soaring demand for computing capacity has sent prices of memory chips soaring, and that's been a big boon for<b>Micron Technology</b>(NASDAQ:MU). The stock price doubled between September 2020 and April 2021, and despite a small pullback, longtime Micron shareholders have held onto most of their gains.</p>\n<p>Yet analysts see more upside ahead. The most ambitious, Rosenblatt Securities, believesMicron stock could gofrom its current level around $81 per share to $165 over the next year.</p>\n<p>The big question for Micron is how long the upward cycle in the semiconductor chip market will last. The industry is notoriously cyclical, with companies like Micron responding to shortages like this by dramatically boosting production capacity. Inevitably, the result is a glut of chips when market conditions normalize, and that creates huge waves in earnings that make apparently cheap multiples look like value traps when industry conditions turn downward.</p>\n<p>For now, though, all signs point to continued strong demand. With chip shortages still reported in several key markets, Micron could have a long way to climb before overcapacity rears its ugly head and leads to an intermediate-term top for the stock.</p>\n<h3>3. Splunk</h3>\n<p>Last but not least,<b>Splunk</b>(NASDAQ:SPLK)has been a volatile stock lately. The data-analytics company recently saw its stock drop back to its March 2020 lows. Even after a sizable bounce, shares remain between 30% and 40% below their best levels from last summer.</p>\n<p>Yet some analysts see a big recovery coming from Splunk. The most optimistic pick forecasts a rise to $300 per share, which would be an all-time high for the stock.</p>\n<p>Splunk recently made news with a big vote of confidencefrom a major institutional investor. Private equity company Silver Lake made a $1 billion investment in the company, purchasing convertible notes that will give Silver Lake the ability to profit from future share-price increases. Splunk intends to take the $1 billion in proceeds to buy back shares, recognizing its own opinion that its stock is undervalued.</p>\n<p>Data analytics has been highly competitive, andSplunk hasn't been able to keep up with some of its peers. However, if the company can restart its growth engines and start catching up with the competition, it could see its stock price reflect more optimism.</p>","source":"fool_stock","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>These 3 Stocks Will Double -- If You Trust Wall Street's Bulls</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nThese 3 Stocks Will Double -- If You Trust Wall Street's Bulls\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-06-25 21:40 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/06/25/these-3-stocks-will-double-trust-wall-street-bulls/><strong>Motley Fool</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Looking for big winners can be a rewarding pursuit.\n\nMost investors find that the bulk of their returns come from just a few of their investments. When you can find stocks that have the potential to ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/06/25/these-3-stocks-will-double-trust-wall-street-bulls/\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"MU":"美光科技","SPLK":"Splunk Inc","BIDU":"百度"},"source_url":"https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/06/25/these-3-stocks-will-double-trust-wall-street-bulls/","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2146073358","content_text":"Looking for big winners can be a rewarding pursuit.\n\nMost investors find that the bulk of their returns come from just a few of their investments. When you can find stocks that have the potential to produce amazing results, it can be a game changer for your entire investing strategy.\nWall Street analysts definitely aren't the end-all and be-all of investing. They're just as fallible as any other investor. However, using analyst research as a starting point for your own consideration of a stock can be a smart move.\nBelow, we'll take a closer look at threetech stocksthat Wall Street's most optimistic analysts believe will double, with an eye toward deciding whether their bullish views are realistic.\n1. Baidu\nBaidu(NASDAQ:BIDU)has been a stock market favorite for a long time, but the stock has been exceptionally volatile in recent years. The Chinese internet-search specialist saw its share price soar from 2013 to 2018, only to lose 75% between 2018 and 2020. Even in just the past several months, Baidu's stock has been exceptionally volatile, with shares tripling between October and February and then falling by nearly half since then.\nSome analysts are still optimistic about Baidu's prospects. With shares trading at around $195, the top price target on Wall Street, which comes fromBarclays, is $400 per share. That would be more than a double from current levels.\nThe key to Baidu's renaissance in the eyes of Barclays is its success in working on artificial intelligence and cloud computing. For years,Baidu coasted on its internet-search success, allowing its peers in the Chinese internet space to pass it by. However, Barclays is optimistic that Baidu can catch up, with initiatives like the Apollo software platform for autonomous vehicles paving the way for new growth.\nConcerns that Baidu and other Chinese stocks might get delisted from U.S. stock exchanges are fading fast, and that's cluing value investors into the potential these companies have. WithBaidu offering a relative bargain, the Chinese internet stock looks attractive.\n2. Micron Technology\nSoaring demand for computing capacity has sent prices of memory chips soaring, and that's been a big boon forMicron Technology(NASDAQ:MU). The stock price doubled between September 2020 and April 2021, and despite a small pullback, longtime Micron shareholders have held onto most of their gains.\nYet analysts see more upside ahead. The most ambitious, Rosenblatt Securities, believesMicron stock could gofrom its current level around $81 per share to $165 over the next year.\nThe big question for Micron is how long the upward cycle in the semiconductor chip market will last. The industry is notoriously cyclical, with companies like Micron responding to shortages like this by dramatically boosting production capacity. Inevitably, the result is a glut of chips when market conditions normalize, and that creates huge waves in earnings that make apparently cheap multiples look like value traps when industry conditions turn downward.\nFor now, though, all signs point to continued strong demand. With chip shortages still reported in several key markets, Micron could have a long way to climb before overcapacity rears its ugly head and leads to an intermediate-term top for the stock.\n3. Splunk\nLast but not least,Splunk(NASDAQ:SPLK)has been a volatile stock lately. The data-analytics company recently saw its stock drop back to its March 2020 lows. Even after a sizable bounce, shares remain between 30% and 40% below their best levels from last summer.\nYet some analysts see a big recovery coming from Splunk. The most optimistic pick forecasts a rise to $300 per share, which would be an all-time high for the stock.\nSplunk recently made news with a big vote of confidencefrom a major institutional investor. Private equity company Silver Lake made a $1 billion investment in the company, purchasing convertible notes that will give Silver Lake the ability to profit from future share-price increases. Splunk intends to take the $1 billion in proceeds to buy back shares, recognizing its own opinion that its stock is undervalued.\nData analytics has been highly competitive, andSplunk hasn't been able to keep up with some of its peers. However, if the company can restart its growth engines and start catching up with the competition, it could see its stock price reflect more optimism.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":267,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":164607198,"gmtCreate":1624197756614,"gmtModify":1634009580566,"author":{"id":"3569899268916978","authorId":"3569899268916978","name":"DY17","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3569899268916978","authorIdStr":"3569899268916978"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Bullish from $ADBE","listText":"Bullish from $ADBE","text":"Bullish from $ADBE","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/164607198","repostId":"2144774740","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2144774740","kind":"highlight","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"The leading daily newsletter for the latest financial and business news. 33Yrs Helping Stock Investors with Investing Insights, Tools, News & More.","home_visible":0,"media_name":"Investors","id":"1085713068","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/608dd68a89ed486e18f64efe3136266c"},"pubTimestamp":1624030096,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2144774740?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-18 23:28","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Adobe Getting Lift From Economic Reopening Post-Pandemic","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2144774740","media":"Investors","summary":"Software giant Adobe is benefiting as the economy reopens following the Covid-19 pandemic, a senior executive says.","content":"<p>Software giant <b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ADBE\">Adobe</a></b> is benefiting as the economy reopens as the Covid-19 pandemic wanes, a senior executive says. The company's beat-and-raise quarterly report provided proof of that. ADBE stock jumped on Friday.</p>\n<p>The maker of digital media and marketing software late Thursday reported fiscal second-quarter earnings that easily topped expectations. Adobe also guided above views for the current quarter.</p>\n<p>The San Jose, Calif.-based company earned an adjusted $3.03 a share on sales of $3.84 billion in the quarter ended June 4. On a year-over-year basis, Adobe earnings rose 24% while sales climbed 23%.</p>\n<p>For the current quarter, Adobe expects to earn an adjusted $3 a share, up 17%, on sales of $3.88 billion, up 20%.</p>\n<h2>ADBE Stock Rises After Earnings Report</h2>\n<p>In morning trading on the stock market today, ADBE stock advanced 2.2%, near 563.35. Earlier in the session, ADBE stock notched a record high 570.</p>\n<p>\"All three of our businesses — Creative Cloud, Document Cloud and <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/EXP.AU\">Experience</a> Cloud — just killed it this quarter with excellent performance,\" Chief Financial Officer John Murphy told Investor's Business Daily. \"Content creation and customer experience engagement in personalized ways are resonating across all of our businesses. And it's really driving the momentum and acceleration in the business.\"</p>\n<p>That momentum will continue in the company's seasonally weaker fiscal third quarter, Murphy said. The current quarter includes the summer months of June, July and August.</p>\n<p>\"The macroeconomic stability is giving a lot of enterprises confidence to invest again,\" Murphy said. \"Companies are prioritizing digital transformation.\"</p>\n<p>The reopening of the economy and return to offices after the pandemic should provide a tailwind for Adobe's business, he said.</p>\n<h2>Analysts Raise Price Targets On Adobe Stock</h2>\n<p>At least 15 Wall Street analysts raised their price targets on ADBE stock after the earnings report.</p>\n<p>Mizuho Securities analyst Gregg Moskowitz reiterated his buy rating on ADBE stock and upped his price target to 640 from 600.</p>\n<p>\"Adobe's expansive portfolio of software solutions has made it the gold standard in content creation, consumption, and collaboration,\" Moskowitz said in a note to clients. \"Adobe is very well positioned to benefit from digital transformation with its comprehensive end-to-end offering that differentiates it from competitors.\"</p>\n<p>On June 11, ADBE stock broke out of a 40-week&nbsp;consolidation period&nbsp;at a&nbsp;buy point&nbsp;of 536.98, according to&nbsp;IBD MarketSmith charts.</p>\n<p>However, IBD Leaderboard analysis offered investors an earlier buy point of 525.54 from a cup base within the larger consolidation pattern.</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Adobe Getting Lift From Economic Reopening Post-Pandemic</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nAdobe Getting Lift From Economic Reopening Post-Pandemic\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<div class=\"head\" \">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/608dd68a89ed486e18f64efe3136266c);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Investors </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2021-06-18 23:28</p>\n</div>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Software giant <b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ADBE\">Adobe</a></b> is benefiting as the economy reopens as the Covid-19 pandemic wanes, a senior executive says. The company's beat-and-raise quarterly report provided proof of that. ADBE stock jumped on Friday.</p>\n<p>The maker of digital media and marketing software late Thursday reported fiscal second-quarter earnings that easily topped expectations. Adobe also guided above views for the current quarter.</p>\n<p>The San Jose, Calif.-based company earned an adjusted $3.03 a share on sales of $3.84 billion in the quarter ended June 4. On a year-over-year basis, Adobe earnings rose 24% while sales climbed 23%.</p>\n<p>For the current quarter, Adobe expects to earn an adjusted $3 a share, up 17%, on sales of $3.88 billion, up 20%.</p>\n<h2>ADBE Stock Rises After Earnings Report</h2>\n<p>In morning trading on the stock market today, ADBE stock advanced 2.2%, near 563.35. Earlier in the session, ADBE stock notched a record high 570.</p>\n<p>\"All three of our businesses — Creative Cloud, Document Cloud and <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/EXP.AU\">Experience</a> Cloud — just killed it this quarter with excellent performance,\" Chief Financial Officer John Murphy told Investor's Business Daily. \"Content creation and customer experience engagement in personalized ways are resonating across all of our businesses. And it's really driving the momentum and acceleration in the business.\"</p>\n<p>That momentum will continue in the company's seasonally weaker fiscal third quarter, Murphy said. The current quarter includes the summer months of June, July and August.</p>\n<p>\"The macroeconomic stability is giving a lot of enterprises confidence to invest again,\" Murphy said. \"Companies are prioritizing digital transformation.\"</p>\n<p>The reopening of the economy and return to offices after the pandemic should provide a tailwind for Adobe's business, he said.</p>\n<h2>Analysts Raise Price Targets On Adobe Stock</h2>\n<p>At least 15 Wall Street analysts raised their price targets on ADBE stock after the earnings report.</p>\n<p>Mizuho Securities analyst Gregg Moskowitz reiterated his buy rating on ADBE stock and upped his price target to 640 from 600.</p>\n<p>\"Adobe's expansive portfolio of software solutions has made it the gold standard in content creation, consumption, and collaboration,\" Moskowitz said in a note to clients. \"Adobe is very well positioned to benefit from digital transformation with its comprehensive end-to-end offering that differentiates it from competitors.\"</p>\n<p>On June 11, ADBE stock broke out of a 40-week&nbsp;consolidation period&nbsp;at a&nbsp;buy point&nbsp;of 536.98, according to&nbsp;IBD MarketSmith charts.</p>\n<p>However, IBD Leaderboard analysis offered investors an earlier buy point of 525.54 from a cup base within the larger consolidation pattern.</p>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"ADBE":"Adobe"},"is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2144774740","content_text":"Software giant Adobe is benefiting as the economy reopens as the Covid-19 pandemic wanes, a senior executive says. The company's beat-and-raise quarterly report provided proof of that. ADBE stock jumped on Friday.\nThe maker of digital media and marketing software late Thursday reported fiscal second-quarter earnings that easily topped expectations. Adobe also guided above views for the current quarter.\nThe San Jose, Calif.-based company earned an adjusted $3.03 a share on sales of $3.84 billion in the quarter ended June 4. On a year-over-year basis, Adobe earnings rose 24% while sales climbed 23%.\nFor the current quarter, Adobe expects to earn an adjusted $3 a share, up 17%, on sales of $3.88 billion, up 20%.\nADBE Stock Rises After Earnings Report\nIn morning trading on the stock market today, ADBE stock advanced 2.2%, near 563.35. Earlier in the session, ADBE stock notched a record high 570.\n\"All three of our businesses — Creative Cloud, Document Cloud and Experience Cloud — just killed it this quarter with excellent performance,\" Chief Financial Officer John Murphy told Investor's Business Daily. \"Content creation and customer experience engagement in personalized ways are resonating across all of our businesses. And it's really driving the momentum and acceleration in the business.\"\nThat momentum will continue in the company's seasonally weaker fiscal third quarter, Murphy said. The current quarter includes the summer months of June, July and August.\n\"The macroeconomic stability is giving a lot of enterprises confidence to invest again,\" Murphy said. \"Companies are prioritizing digital transformation.\"\nThe reopening of the economy and return to offices after the pandemic should provide a tailwind for Adobe's business, he said.\nAnalysts Raise Price Targets On Adobe Stock\nAt least 15 Wall Street analysts raised their price targets on ADBE stock after the earnings report.\nMizuho Securities analyst Gregg Moskowitz reiterated his buy rating on ADBE stock and upped his price target to 640 from 600.\n\"Adobe's expansive portfolio of software solutions has made it the gold standard in content creation, consumption, and collaboration,\" Moskowitz said in a note to clients. \"Adobe is very well positioned to benefit from digital transformation with its comprehensive end-to-end offering that differentiates it from competitors.\"\nOn June 11, ADBE stock broke out of a 40-week consolidation period at a buy point of 536.98, according to IBD MarketSmith charts.\nHowever, IBD Leaderboard analysis offered investors an earlier buy point of 525.54 from a cup base within the larger consolidation pattern.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":396,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":168725878,"gmtCreate":1623984479294,"gmtModify":1634024698899,"author":{"id":"3569899268916978","authorId":"3569899268916978","name":"DY17","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3569899268916978","authorIdStr":"3569899268916978"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Bullish on $NIO","listText":"Bullish on $NIO","text":"Bullish on $NIO","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/168725878","repostId":"1148576248","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1148576248","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1623979883,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1148576248?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-18 09:31","market":"us","language":"en","title":"NIO Is Winning","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1148576248","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"NIO is #1 in China's electric SUV market for good reason.The company's success is driven by its brilliant innovations and marketing strategy.NIO is growing faster than Tesla, and yet, it is trading at a discount.NIO Inc.  stands out for its strong market position- #1 market share in electric SUV in China- and innovation in the rapidly growing and highly competitive electric vehicle industry. This article will discuss why NIO is winning against some stiff competition, including against Tesla .In ","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p>\n<ul>\n <li>NIO is #1 in China's electric SUV market for good reason.</li>\n <li>The company's success is driven by its brilliant innovations and marketing strategy.</li>\n <li>NIO is growing faster than Tesla, and yet, it is trading at a discount.</li>\n</ul>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/790fae23b830463fec748d2deb2ce336\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1024\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>PonyWang/E+ via Getty Images</span></p>\n<p>NIO Inc. (NYSE:NIO) stands out for its strong market position- #1 market share in electric SUV in China- and innovation in the rapidly growing and highly competitive electric vehicle industry. This article will discuss why NIO is winning against some stiff competition, including against Tesla (TSLA).</p>\n<p>In addition, we will discuss NIO's business, financials, trading, valuation, and risks so readers could reach their own informed decision.</p>\n<p><b>Business: Why NIO Wins</b></p>\n<p>NIO positions itself in the premium SUV segment, focusing on smart EVs with a differentiated battery strategy.</p>\n<p>Delivered in March 2019, the company's first model, the ES8, is a luxury 7-seater SUV that is still the company's flagship product today. The ES8 is equipped with ADAS and AI system [NOMI] and is comparable to the BYD Song, Tesla Model X, the Audi Q7 45 e-Tron, etc.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/443e2773f70c00c6faac8ca063e978a5\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"387\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source: Company</span></p>\n<p>Leveraging the installed base and customer goodwill due to the highly successful ES8, NIO successfully launched the ES6 and EC6.Recently, the company launched the ET7, its first sedan.</p>\n<p>Today, NIO is the top-selling brand in China's all-electric SUV market in April with a 23% market share, higher than Tesla's 17%, WM Motor and XPeng Motors'(NYSE:XPEV)7%, according to China Automotive Technology and Research Center data.</p>\n<p>One of the biggest competitive differentiators is NIO'sbattery strategy, which all but eliminates range anxiety, one of the biggest barriers to mass EV adoption. Not only could NIO cars be charged at any charging station for EVs, but the company also built hundreds of battery swapping stations in key cities in China, with plans to expanding to Europe.</p>\n<p>NIO's battery swapping strategy also gives the company the ability to offer a battery-as-a-service [BaaS] solution, which reduces the upfrontcostof purchasing an NIO vehicle by ~$11,000. Since cost is another major barrier to mass EV adoption, NIO's battery strategy appears brilliant as it solves both the range and cost problems.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5b25fbb85bffd39310cd27cbb2bde57a\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"216\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source: Company</span></p>\n<p>Another differentiator is the NIO brand, which management created brilliantly by introducing the EP9 in 2016. Six EP9s have been sold to NIO investors for 2.5 million pounds, creating an aura of exclusivity and quality around the brand. Next, NIO targeted the mass-market luxury SUV segment with the ES8, firmly establishing the company as a luxury car OEM.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ad41c960ce02f1e3f3e7575ac00beee0\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"350\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source: Company</span></p>\n<p>Chinese companies must struggle against the common perception that they make low-quality products. This is the same perception issue that Japanese companies faced following their defeat after WW2. Japan solved this problem by moving up the value chain as their economy matured and creating high-quality brands such as Sony(NYSE:SONY). Today, Japan is known for its craftsmanship.</p>\n<p>China is following the same trajectory, and NIO is one of the emerging brands destroying the perception that \"made in China\" equates to poor quality. I strongly believe that investors who stubbornly hold on to that old perception will miss out on investing in some of the greatest brands the world will ever see.</p>\n<p>Buying an NIO car means much more than just getting a vehicle; it means getting into an exclusive club of services and convenience. Benefits include access to hundreds of swapping stations, lifetime free roadside rescue (including charge vans), lifetime free cellular connectivity, lifetime free warranty, and excellent customer service. This is a powerful selling point for NIO, differentiating it from Tesla, which hasrecentlydeveloped a poor reputation on the customer service front in China.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a73482aa0431694b760ab5c2d0aa6f53\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"211\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source: Company</span></p>\n<p>The company is pushing the envelope even further with&nbsp;NIO House, a literal clubhouse for customers, and&nbsp;NIO Life, which includes NIO branded lifestyle products. NIO's effort to build a lifestyle around its cars seems to be&nbsp;working. This is good news for investors because the only way to escape the competitive battlefield of automobile OEM is to sell services and lifestyles to customers. This is why Ferrari's (RACE) operating margin is well over 20%, while Ford (F) and General Motors (GM) are in the single digits.</p>\n<p><b>Financials &amp; Valuation</b></p>\n<p>NIO is in hyper-growth mode. In 2020, the company generated $2.5 billion in revenue, up 126% y/y. In 2021, the company is expected to grow 117% y/y to $5.4 billion.</p>\n<p>The company is not yet profitable but is expected to be by 2022. Gross margin only turned positive in 2020 and is expected to be 19.3% in 2021. EBITDA is expected to be negative $258 million in 2021 and a positive $206 million in 2022. Free cash flow is expected to be negative $42 million in 2021 before turning to a positive $354 million in 2022.</p>\n<p>However, despite the cash burn expected in 2021, investors should feel at ease since the company exited&nbsp;2020&nbsp;with $5.9 billion of cash and cash equivalents. Including $600 million in short-term investments and subtracting ~$2.1 billion in debt and operating leases and the expected negative free cash flow in 2021, NIO should exit 2021 with over $4 billion in net cash and investments. That is plenty of buffers since NIO is expected to generate positive free cash flow in 2022.</p>\n<p>Since NIO is not yet profitable, we will look at the forward EV/Sales multiple as is typical for hyper-growth companies not yet generating a profit. The company went public in September 2018, trading at around 7 to 8 times EV/Sales, before bottoming out at around 0.7 times sales in May 2019. The market, however, caught the EV fever in April 2020 and sent NIO's valuation soaring to a peak of 14.6x by January 2021. After the growth sell-off we recently experienced, NIO is currently sitting at a much more reasonable 8 times forward sales. This is a significant discount to TSLA's 10.2 times forward EV/Sales despite growing twice as fast (TSLA is expected to grow revenues by 57% in 2021 compared to NIO's 117%).</p>\n<p><b>Risks</b></p>\n<p>There are many risks associated with owning NIO.</p>\n<p>Although its battery swapping strategy is highly differentiated and seems to be growing rapidly, the jury is still out on the ultimate market share of battery swapping or fast-charging infrastructure. If fast charging technology continues to advance significantly, it will likely erode a key advantage of battery swapping: speed.</p>\n<p>NIO's business model is innovative and new. Unfortunately, the flip side of that is that it is untested, and NIO remains unprofitable. For many investors, NIO will remain a \"show me\" story until the profitability of its business model improves.</p>\n<p>NIO's ability to expand globally may be limited by the rising geopolitical tension between China and the US, and to a lesser extent, with Japan and Europe. The geopolitical situation remains highly opaque and uncertain, and is a risk factor for all auto OEMs.</p>\n<p>Auto OEMs are currently facing a severe chip&nbsp;shortage. In addition, the chip density in automobiles is increasing, making the OEMs increasingly reliant on semiconductor suppliers and foundries.</p>\n<p>NIO's competitive advantages may not overcome the massive scale advantage of ICE OEMs and much bigger EV players like Tesla and China's BYD.</p>\n<p><b>Takeaway</b></p>\n<p>NIO's technical and business model innovations make it a highly differentiated company in the exciting and rapidly growing EV market. The company is winning, and its competitive moat is getting bigger as its ecosystem of vehicles and services grows. Relative to the industry leader, Tesla, NIO's stock price seems like a bargain given its faster growth rate and lower multiples.</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>NIO Is Winning</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nNIO Is Winning\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-06-18 09:31 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4435341-nio-is-winning><strong>seekingalpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Summary\n\nNIO is #1 in China's electric SUV market for good reason.\nThe company's success is driven by its brilliant innovations and marketing strategy.\nNIO is growing faster than Tesla, and yet, it is...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4435341-nio-is-winning\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"NIO":"蔚来"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4435341-nio-is-winning","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1148576248","content_text":"Summary\n\nNIO is #1 in China's electric SUV market for good reason.\nThe company's success is driven by its brilliant innovations and marketing strategy.\nNIO is growing faster than Tesla, and yet, it is trading at a discount.\n\nPonyWang/E+ via Getty Images\nNIO Inc. (NYSE:NIO) stands out for its strong market position- #1 market share in electric SUV in China- and innovation in the rapidly growing and highly competitive electric vehicle industry. This article will discuss why NIO is winning against some stiff competition, including against Tesla (TSLA).\nIn addition, we will discuss NIO's business, financials, trading, valuation, and risks so readers could reach their own informed decision.\nBusiness: Why NIO Wins\nNIO positions itself in the premium SUV segment, focusing on smart EVs with a differentiated battery strategy.\nDelivered in March 2019, the company's first model, the ES8, is a luxury 7-seater SUV that is still the company's flagship product today. The ES8 is equipped with ADAS and AI system [NOMI] and is comparable to the BYD Song, Tesla Model X, the Audi Q7 45 e-Tron, etc.\nSource: Company\nLeveraging the installed base and customer goodwill due to the highly successful ES8, NIO successfully launched the ES6 and EC6.Recently, the company launched the ET7, its first sedan.\nToday, NIO is the top-selling brand in China's all-electric SUV market in April with a 23% market share, higher than Tesla's 17%, WM Motor and XPeng Motors'(NYSE:XPEV)7%, according to China Automotive Technology and Research Center data.\nOne of the biggest competitive differentiators is NIO'sbattery strategy, which all but eliminates range anxiety, one of the biggest barriers to mass EV adoption. Not only could NIO cars be charged at any charging station for EVs, but the company also built hundreds of battery swapping stations in key cities in China, with plans to expanding to Europe.\nNIO's battery swapping strategy also gives the company the ability to offer a battery-as-a-service [BaaS] solution, which reduces the upfrontcostof purchasing an NIO vehicle by ~$11,000. Since cost is another major barrier to mass EV adoption, NIO's battery strategy appears brilliant as it solves both the range and cost problems.\nSource: Company\nAnother differentiator is the NIO brand, which management created brilliantly by introducing the EP9 in 2016. Six EP9s have been sold to NIO investors for 2.5 million pounds, creating an aura of exclusivity and quality around the brand. Next, NIO targeted the mass-market luxury SUV segment with the ES8, firmly establishing the company as a luxury car OEM.\nSource: Company\nChinese companies must struggle against the common perception that they make low-quality products. This is the same perception issue that Japanese companies faced following their defeat after WW2. Japan solved this problem by moving up the value chain as their economy matured and creating high-quality brands such as Sony(NYSE:SONY). Today, Japan is known for its craftsmanship.\nChina is following the same trajectory, and NIO is one of the emerging brands destroying the perception that \"made in China\" equates to poor quality. I strongly believe that investors who stubbornly hold on to that old perception will miss out on investing in some of the greatest brands the world will ever see.\nBuying an NIO car means much more than just getting a vehicle; it means getting into an exclusive club of services and convenience. Benefits include access to hundreds of swapping stations, lifetime free roadside rescue (including charge vans), lifetime free cellular connectivity, lifetime free warranty, and excellent customer service. This is a powerful selling point for NIO, differentiating it from Tesla, which hasrecentlydeveloped a poor reputation on the customer service front in China.\nSource: Company\nThe company is pushing the envelope even further with NIO House, a literal clubhouse for customers, and NIO Life, which includes NIO branded lifestyle products. NIO's effort to build a lifestyle around its cars seems to be working. This is good news for investors because the only way to escape the competitive battlefield of automobile OEM is to sell services and lifestyles to customers. This is why Ferrari's (RACE) operating margin is well over 20%, while Ford (F) and General Motors (GM) are in the single digits.\nFinancials & Valuation\nNIO is in hyper-growth mode. In 2020, the company generated $2.5 billion in revenue, up 126% y/y. In 2021, the company is expected to grow 117% y/y to $5.4 billion.\nThe company is not yet profitable but is expected to be by 2022. Gross margin only turned positive in 2020 and is expected to be 19.3% in 2021. EBITDA is expected to be negative $258 million in 2021 and a positive $206 million in 2022. Free cash flow is expected to be negative $42 million in 2021 before turning to a positive $354 million in 2022.\nHowever, despite the cash burn expected in 2021, investors should feel at ease since the company exited 2020 with $5.9 billion of cash and cash equivalents. Including $600 million in short-term investments and subtracting ~$2.1 billion in debt and operating leases and the expected negative free cash flow in 2021, NIO should exit 2021 with over $4 billion in net cash and investments. That is plenty of buffers since NIO is expected to generate positive free cash flow in 2022.\nSince NIO is not yet profitable, we will look at the forward EV/Sales multiple as is typical for hyper-growth companies not yet generating a profit. The company went public in September 2018, trading at around 7 to 8 times EV/Sales, before bottoming out at around 0.7 times sales in May 2019. The market, however, caught the EV fever in April 2020 and sent NIO's valuation soaring to a peak of 14.6x by January 2021. After the growth sell-off we recently experienced, NIO is currently sitting at a much more reasonable 8 times forward sales. This is a significant discount to TSLA's 10.2 times forward EV/Sales despite growing twice as fast (TSLA is expected to grow revenues by 57% in 2021 compared to NIO's 117%).\nRisks\nThere are many risks associated with owning NIO.\nAlthough its battery swapping strategy is highly differentiated and seems to be growing rapidly, the jury is still out on the ultimate market share of battery swapping or fast-charging infrastructure. If fast charging technology continues to advance significantly, it will likely erode a key advantage of battery swapping: speed.\nNIO's business model is innovative and new. Unfortunately, the flip side of that is that it is untested, and NIO remains unprofitable. For many investors, NIO will remain a \"show me\" story until the profitability of its business model improves.\nNIO's ability to expand globally may be limited by the rising geopolitical tension between China and the US, and to a lesser extent, with Japan and Europe. The geopolitical situation remains highly opaque and uncertain, and is a risk factor for all auto OEMs.\nAuto OEMs are currently facing a severe chip shortage. In addition, the chip density in automobiles is increasing, making the OEMs increasingly reliant on semiconductor suppliers and foundries.\nNIO's competitive advantages may not overcome the massive scale advantage of ICE OEMs and much bigger EV players like Tesla and China's BYD.\nTakeaway\nNIO's technical and business model innovations make it a highly differentiated company in the exciting and rapidly growing EV market. The company is winning, and its competitive moat is getting bigger as its ecosystem of vehicles and services grows. Relative to the industry leader, Tesla, NIO's stock price seems like a bargain given its faster growth rate and lower multiples.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":241,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":168728328,"gmtCreate":1623984432164,"gmtModify":1634024702423,"author":{"id":"3569899268916978","authorId":"3569899268916978","name":"DY17","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3569899268916978","authorIdStr":"3569899268916978"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Bullish on $PLTR","listText":"Bullish on $PLTR","text":"Bullish on $PLTR","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/168728328","repostId":"1180977741","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":186,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":168729213,"gmtCreate":1623984385632,"gmtModify":1634024704716,"author":{"id":"3569899268916978","authorId":"3569899268916978","name":"DY17","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3569899268916978","authorIdStr":"3569899268916978"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Bullish on $UPST","listText":"Bullish on $UPST","text":"Bullish on $UPST","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/168729213","repostId":"2144574107","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":278,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":192861399,"gmtCreate":1621178646211,"gmtModify":1634193570485,"author":{"id":"3569899268916978","authorId":"3569899268916978","name":"DY17","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3569899268916978","authorIdStr":"3569899268916978"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Bullish on $PLUG","listText":"Bullish on $PLUG","text":"Bullish on $PLUG","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/192861399","repostId":"1112039119","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":527,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":109191200,"gmtCreate":1619670589900,"gmtModify":1634210838113,"author":{"id":"3569899268916978","authorId":"3569899268916978","name":"DY17","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3569899268916978","authorIdStr":"3569899268916978"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Interesting","listText":"Interesting","text":"Interesting","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/109191200","repostId":"1183966356","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1183966356","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1619665696,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1183966356?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-04-29 11:08","market":"us","language":"en","title":"NIO Q1 2021 Earnings Report Preview: What to Look For","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1183966356","media":"InvestoPedia","summary":"Analysts estimate earnings per ADS of -0.72 yuan vs. -1.66 yuan in Q1 FY 2020.Revenue is expected to soar on expanding vehicle sales.NIO Inc. , like many other automakers, was forced to halt production this year due to the global semiconductor shortage. Semiconductor chips, widely used in smartphones, computers, and other electronic devices, are especially important to NIO, a maker of premium electric vehicles . NIO's production stoppage in late March had little impact on the company's record ve","content":"<p>Focus on NIO vehicle deliveries</p>\n<p><b>KEY TAKEAWAYS</b></p>\n<ul>\n <li>Analysts estimate earnings per ADS of -0.72 yuan vs. -1.66 yuan in Q1 FY 2020.</li>\n <li>Vehicle deliveries, already announced, rose dramatically YOY.</li>\n <li>Revenue is expected to soar on expanding vehicle sales.</li>\n</ul>\n<p>NIO Inc. (NIO), like many other automakers, was forced to halt production this year due to the global semiconductor shortage. Semiconductor chips, widely used in smartphones, computers, and other electronic devices, are especially important to NIO, a maker of premium electric vehicles (EVs). NIO's production stoppage in late March had little impact on the company's record vehicle deliveries in Q1, but it could affect future production numbers.</p>\n<p>Investors will focus on how these forces affect NIO's immediate results, as well as its financial outlook, when the company reports earnings on April 29, 2021 for Q1 FY 2021.Analysts are expecting the company's loss per American depositary share (ADS) to narrow significantly as revenue expands at a rapid pace.</p>\n<p>Vehicle deliveries are another key metric investors watch in order to gauge the company's productive capacity. NIO already reported vehicle deliveries for the first quarter earlier this month, achieving a new quarterly record despite total deliveries coming in slightly below expectations.</p>\n<p>Shares of NIO have dramatically outperformed the broader market over the past year. But after reaching all-time highs earlier this year, the stock has fallen considerably and has been trading mostly sideways since early March. NIO's shares have provided investors with an astronomic total return of 1,171.9% over the past year, well above the S&amp;P 500's total return of 45.5%.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a11e1a915810ccbc7f07ec2adf16865b\" tg-width=\"3004\" tg-height=\"1798\"><span>Source: TradingView.</span></p>\n<p><b>NIO Earnings History</b></p>\n<p>The stock, which had been gathering downward momentum after peaking around mid-February, plunged following NIO's&nbsp;Q4 FY 2020 earnings&nbsp;report released at the beginning of March. The company reported a much larger loss per ADS than analysts expected and revenue also missed estimates. However, NIO's loss narrowed considerably compared to the year-ago quarter and revenue was still up 133.2%.The company was optimistic about its performance, noting that its&nbsp;gross margin&nbsp;rose to 17.2% compared to negative 8.9% in the year-ago quarter.</p>\n<p>In Q3 FY 2020, NIO posted a loss per ADS of 0.98 yuan ($0.15 as of the CNY/USD exchange rate on April 27, 2021).It was the smallest loss in at least 11 quarters. Revenue rose 146.4%, maintaining the pace of growth achieved in the second quarter.NIO said it delivered a record number of vehicles and saw improvements in its average selling price. The company also said that it was the second straight quarter of positive cash flow from operating activities.</p>\n<p>Analysts expect continued improvement in NIO's financial results in Q1 FY 2021. While NIO is still expected to post another loss per ADS, it is estimated to be the lowest in at least 14 quarters. Revenue for the quarter is forecast to rise 446.1%, which would be the fastest pace since Q2 FY 2019. For full-year FY 2021, analysts are currently expecting NIO to achieve a loss of 2.72 yuan per ADS, which would be the smallest loss in at least five years. Revenue is expected to rise 109.7%, a faster pace than in each of the last two years.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d412a9c0aea28621f713f5afbfba444c\" tg-width=\"885\" tg-height=\"352\"><span>Source: Visible Alpha; NIO Inc.</span></p>\n<p><b>The Key Metric</b></p>\n<p>As mentioned above, investors are also watching the number of vehicles NIO delivers each quarter. NIO generates some revenue from various services it provides, but the majority of revenue is derived from vehicle sales.Currently, the company makes deliveries of three types of vehicles: the ES8, the company's 6-seater and 7-seater flagship premium smart electric SUV; the ES6, the company’s 5-seater high-performance premium smart electric SUV; and the EC6, the company’s 5-seater premium electric coupe SUV.The number of vehicle deliveries provides an indication of the demand for NIO's vehicles as well as the company's ability to scale production.</p>\n<p>NIO has significantly ramped up its production over the past few years. The company delivered 11,350 vehicles in FY 2018. In FY 2020, it had nearly quadrupled that figure, delivering 43,730 vehicles. Despite a slowdown in Q1 FY 2020 amid the COVID-19 pandemic, NIO quickly made up for the Q1 drop in deliveries with a 190.8% year-over-year increase in Q2 FY 2020. Total vehicle delivery growth decelerated to 154.3% in Q3 and then to 111.0% in Q4. However, vehicle deliveries rose 423.0% in Q1 FY 2021, hitting a new quarterly record, as mentioned above. For full-year FY 2021, analysts are forecasting NIO to deliver 88,280 vehicles, which would be more than double last year's total deliveries. However, NIO warned investors in early March that the global chip shortage is likely to cut its production capacity, at least in the second quarter.</p>","source":"lsy1606203311635","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>NIO Q1 2021 Earnings Report Preview: What to Look For</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nNIO Q1 2021 Earnings Report Preview: What to Look For\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-04-29 11:08 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.investopedia.com/nio-q1-2021-earnings-report-preview-5180991><strong>InvestoPedia</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Focus on NIO vehicle deliveries\nKEY TAKEAWAYS\n\nAnalysts estimate earnings per ADS of -0.72 yuan vs. -1.66 yuan in Q1 FY 2020.\nVehicle deliveries, already announced, rose dramatically YOY.\nRevenue is ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.investopedia.com/nio-q1-2021-earnings-report-preview-5180991\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"NIO":"蔚来"},"source_url":"https://www.investopedia.com/nio-q1-2021-earnings-report-preview-5180991","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1183966356","content_text":"Focus on NIO vehicle deliveries\nKEY TAKEAWAYS\n\nAnalysts estimate earnings per ADS of -0.72 yuan vs. -1.66 yuan in Q1 FY 2020.\nVehicle deliveries, already announced, rose dramatically YOY.\nRevenue is expected to soar on expanding vehicle sales.\n\nNIO Inc. (NIO), like many other automakers, was forced to halt production this year due to the global semiconductor shortage. Semiconductor chips, widely used in smartphones, computers, and other electronic devices, are especially important to NIO, a maker of premium electric vehicles (EVs). NIO's production stoppage in late March had little impact on the company's record vehicle deliveries in Q1, but it could affect future production numbers.\nInvestors will focus on how these forces affect NIO's immediate results, as well as its financial outlook, when the company reports earnings on April 29, 2021 for Q1 FY 2021.Analysts are expecting the company's loss per American depositary share (ADS) to narrow significantly as revenue expands at a rapid pace.\nVehicle deliveries are another key metric investors watch in order to gauge the company's productive capacity. NIO already reported vehicle deliveries for the first quarter earlier this month, achieving a new quarterly record despite total deliveries coming in slightly below expectations.\nShares of NIO have dramatically outperformed the broader market over the past year. But after reaching all-time highs earlier this year, the stock has fallen considerably and has been trading mostly sideways since early March. NIO's shares have provided investors with an astronomic total return of 1,171.9% over the past year, well above the S&P 500's total return of 45.5%.\nSource: TradingView.\nNIO Earnings History\nThe stock, which had been gathering downward momentum after peaking around mid-February, plunged following NIO's Q4 FY 2020 earnings report released at the beginning of March. The company reported a much larger loss per ADS than analysts expected and revenue also missed estimates. However, NIO's loss narrowed considerably compared to the year-ago quarter and revenue was still up 133.2%.The company was optimistic about its performance, noting that its gross margin rose to 17.2% compared to negative 8.9% in the year-ago quarter.\nIn Q3 FY 2020, NIO posted a loss per ADS of 0.98 yuan ($0.15 as of the CNY/USD exchange rate on April 27, 2021).It was the smallest loss in at least 11 quarters. Revenue rose 146.4%, maintaining the pace of growth achieved in the second quarter.NIO said it delivered a record number of vehicles and saw improvements in its average selling price. The company also said that it was the second straight quarter of positive cash flow from operating activities.\nAnalysts expect continued improvement in NIO's financial results in Q1 FY 2021. While NIO is still expected to post another loss per ADS, it is estimated to be the lowest in at least 14 quarters. Revenue for the quarter is forecast to rise 446.1%, which would be the fastest pace since Q2 FY 2019. For full-year FY 2021, analysts are currently expecting NIO to achieve a loss of 2.72 yuan per ADS, which would be the smallest loss in at least five years. Revenue is expected to rise 109.7%, a faster pace than in each of the last two years.\nSource: Visible Alpha; NIO Inc.\nThe Key Metric\nAs mentioned above, investors are also watching the number of vehicles NIO delivers each quarter. NIO generates some revenue from various services it provides, but the majority of revenue is derived from vehicle sales.Currently, the company makes deliveries of three types of vehicles: the ES8, the company's 6-seater and 7-seater flagship premium smart electric SUV; the ES6, the company’s 5-seater high-performance premium smart electric SUV; and the EC6, the company’s 5-seater premium electric coupe SUV.The number of vehicle deliveries provides an indication of the demand for NIO's vehicles as well as the company's ability to scale production.\nNIO has significantly ramped up its production over the past few years. The company delivered 11,350 vehicles in FY 2018. In FY 2020, it had nearly quadrupled that figure, delivering 43,730 vehicles. Despite a slowdown in Q1 FY 2020 amid the COVID-19 pandemic, NIO quickly made up for the Q1 drop in deliveries with a 190.8% year-over-year increase in Q2 FY 2020. Total vehicle delivery growth decelerated to 154.3% in Q3 and then to 111.0% in Q4. However, vehicle deliveries rose 423.0% in Q1 FY 2021, hitting a new quarterly record, as mentioned above. For full-year FY 2021, analysts are forecasting NIO to deliver 88,280 vehicles, which would be more than double last year's total deliveries. However, NIO warned investors in early March that the global chip shortage is likely to cut its production capacity, at least in the second quarter.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":214,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":328446639,"gmtCreate":1615555578221,"gmtModify":1703490851191,"author":{"id":"3569899268916978","authorId":"3569899268916978","name":"DY17","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3569899268916978","authorIdStr":"3569899268916978"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Good","listText":"Good","text":"Good","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/328446639","repostId":"1144000725","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1144000725","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1615554528,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1144000725?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-03-12 21:08","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Roblox Builds The Metaverse","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1144000725","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Summary\n\nRoblox is not a game, but a platform for both designing and playing games.\nLike other gamin","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p>\n<ul>\n <li>Roblox is not a game, but a platform for both designing and playing games.</li>\n <li>Like other gaming companies, they are trying to build a metaverse that blends real and persistent virtual worlds.</li>\n <li>They have what I consider a durable long-term strategy and stellar word-of-mouth marketing.</li>\n <li>Like many gaming companies, their user metrics all saw outrageous growth in 2020 due to the pandemic. That cannot be matched after Q1 2021.</li>\n <li>As such, I think a better price will be available later in the year.</li>\n</ul>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/da521a162b09482db5b85e52ad4f9858\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"346\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>Nobody Knows Anything</p>\n<blockquote>\n Nobody knows anything. Not one person in the entire motion picture field knows for a certainty what’s going to work. Every time out it’s a guess — and if you’re lucky, an educated one.\n</blockquote>\n<blockquote>\n - William Goldman,Adventures in the Screen Trade\n</blockquote>\n<p>I live in LA, and many of my friends and neighbors are in the film and TV industry, and I even once worked at Warner Brothers TV, Warner's TV production arm. Even if they don’t know where it came from, that three-word phrase, “nobody knows anything,” is one everybody knows, and is as close to gospel as you get in Hollywood.</p>\n<p>One of the&nbsp;greatest screenwriters of all time, Goldman’s point was that it is impossible to ever know exactly what audiences are going to want, and even the smartest, cagiest, most creative executives are frequently wrong. Complicating that is the very long time it takes to go from screenplay to screen. What may have been perfect cultural timing at conception may already be stale by the time people can see it.</p>\n<p>I see this exact problem in game studios as well, prominently in that last part about timing. Especially in the AAA game world, development times can extend for years. Creators get immersed in the world they are building, and meanwhile outside the walls of the studio, the world is changing. I think Apple TV+’s Mythic Quest, a comedy about a fictional MMORPG studio, dramatizes a lot of this very well.</p>\n<p>Roblox’s (RBLX) model solves the Nobody Knows Anything Problem in the way YouTube (GOOG)(NASDAQ:GOOGL)solved it for video. Roblox is not really a game, but a platform for designing and playing games. It gets frequently compared to Minecraft (MSFT), because they both rely on user creativity, but it is more akin to Unreal Engine, Epic’s game development platform. But that’s for developers. Roblox brings game publishing to the masses the way YouTube democratized video broadcasting.</p>\n<p>The YouTube model is that most of their content is terrible, but that there is so much of it, there is also a huge volume of good stuff that rises to the top and gets monetized, especially when we are talking about niche audiences. That Roblox graphic above, “Millions of Experiences” is the same model in a three-word slogan.</p>\n<p>Roblox does not have to come up with the Next Big Thing, and the one after that, and the one after that. They are counting on their users to do it for them. Amongst millions of worlds, thousands are going to be of interest to players.</p>\n<p>But as much as I like the model, I can’t recommend the stock for two reasons. In the first place, they have already seen huge pandemic-related growth, and even they are predicting user engagement will be flattish or down in 2021. But more to the point, Roblox closed its first day of trading with a market cap over $40 billion. The stock price was up to over $70 aftermarket after listing at $45. The problem is this:</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ce11bd249428baffd59f8154f10e022c\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"436\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p>\n<p>That valuation does not make a ton of sense right now for a company with under a billion in GAAP revenue. But that aside, this is one to keep an eye on. I believe a better price will come later in the year as the report soft comps with pandemic quarters.</p>\n<p><b>It’s A Game Development Platform, Not A Game</b></p>\n<p>Many companies like to refer to their IP stack as a “platform” to imply that a lot can be built upon it. Most of the time, that’s just management buzzwording. But Roblox is genuinely a gaming platform for both creators and users, which makes it distinct.</p>\n<p>Developing games is not as simple as they’d like to make out, but it is much simpler than any other method.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e171a67b3fa5b09a5b8fc1009f9a3506\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"550\"><span>Roblox Studio screenshot</span></p>\n<p>Roblox comes with a huge library of modifiable characters, environments and objects. While much can be scripted, games can be authored without writing a single line of code, using built-in scripts and behaviors. It also has a plugin architecture, and there are many which add functionality or ease-of-use to the development environment, or add game content. They have 35 million of these in their developer store. This is a full stack development tool that even beginners can use.</p>\n<p>There are thousands of these videos on YouTube. More complex gameplay and objects require scripting in Roblox’s Lua language, but it tends to be much simpler than alternative languages. My point here is that a wide range of game designers - from kids to professionals - can use this thing and create something very simple, or something very complex.</p>\n<p>The majority of users will never download Roblox Studio. They counted 33 million daily active users in 2020, and 8 million “active developers.” 1.5 million earned something from their creations, so that’s probably a more realistic number. Only 300 earned more than $100,000, so it’s still a small and growing opportunity for game developers. Developers are paid 70% of the Robux - the in-game currency - their content earns, which encourages the many small earners to funnel that back into gameplay, and not convert it into real bucks.</p>\n<p>But most users will only ever experience the mobile app for playing the games. So it is actually very different from Minecraft, to which it gets frequently compared:</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cfb43273a10448d6157e5031eb16f226\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"295\"></p>\n<p>So while there is some general overlap, mostly in the idea that creativity is one of the core parts of the game, they mostly are pretty different. Minecraft is also infinitely modifiable, but it is not millions of games.</p>\n<p>As 2020 closed, there were 20 million games, which opens up a new challenge: discoverability. Apple’s(NASDAQ:AAPL)struggles with this in the App Store, despite big investments there, highlight what a challenge that is. My own experience is that they are doing pretty well, but have a ways to go, like everyone else that is relying on algorithmic discovery.</p>\n<p><b>The Metaverse</b></p>\n<p>What Roblox is building here is something futurists have referred to as a “metaverse,” a term lifted from a 1992 sci-fi novel,Snow Crash. You can think about the metaverse as a combination of persistent virtual worlds, and the real world interacting - the world of the film Ready Player One, but hopefully less awful. Roblox talks about 8 parts of this that make up the metaverse they are building.</p>\n<ol>\n <li>The avatar. How each individual player chooses to represent themselves in virtual worlds. These can be self-designed or purchased.</li>\n <li>Friends. You are interacting with your real-life friends, and new ones you make on the platform. By December, they were processing 2 million chat messages a day. They do not have voice yet, mostly because they are working on a system that enforces their trust and civility standards, which is far easier to do with plain text messages (item 8 below).</li>\n <li>“Immersiveness.” They are working hard on iterating the graphics so 3D worlds can be everything from cartoony to highly realistic. The progress from even 5 years ago is extraordinary, and light years ahead of their original platform, which looked more like the blocky Minecraft world.</li>\n <li>Global and mobile. Games dynamically downshift graphics and rendering on older devices, or where internet connections are poor. Localization rollout is very far along, but slowed by their focus on content moderation. Again, this is an artifact of item 8 below. Their China strategy is a joint venture with Tencent.</li>\n <li>Variety. Millions of worlds.</li>\n <li>“Frictionless” movement between worlds in a matter of seconds. Games load incrementally, as data is needed. Users average playing 20 different games per month.</li>\n <li>Monetized via Robux, their in-game currency. Also future potential from ad revenue, but I believe they will limit this because of the next item.</li>\n <li>Trust and civility. This is super key for the long-term growth of the platform - to not let a small minority of trolls ruin the experience for everyone else. After developer payments, the largest line item in their Opex is “Infrastructure and trust &amp; safety.” I view this as a crucial investment.</li>\n</ol>\n<p>Roblox is far from the only company trying to put something like this together, but I like their strategy, especially these aspects:</p>\n<ul>\n <li>Combining development and gameplay into one platform solves the Nobody Knows Anything Problem.</li>\n <li>Their emphasis on the social aspects of gameplay.</li>\n <li>Their emphasis on trust and civility.</li>\n <li>Monetization that is already working, and an untapped advertising stream of revenue in the future.</li>\n <li>They run their own backend cloud, customized for their needs and ambitions. In some regions, they fall back to AWS (AMZN).</li>\n <li>They prefer small, autonomous teams to large hierarchical groups, and encourage cross-pollination between groups.</li>\n <li>The “moat” comes when they reach enough scale. They are not close yet.</li>\n <li>Their future plans include translating this model focused on engagement with your friends and content creation to other areas like education, work, live events and video. I believe they have a key opportunity to become the preferred work-from-home platform over Zoom (ZM).</li>\n</ul>\n<p>This is a wholistic, Apple-like strategy that is built to last.</p>\n<p><b>Financials</b></p>\n<p>I specified GAAP revenue in the intro because digital goods companies like Roblox have complications, even that far up the operating statement. The big issue is that monetization is done through the sale of Robux, the in-game currency. But until the Robux are spent in-game, they are counted as deferred revenue, and not counted in GAAP revenue. This makes quite the difference.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/659642cfe091e1d54c0a2f10ef66e5e2\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"377\"></p>\n<p>As you can see, there were a lot of Christmas Robux still in user accounts at the end of 2020. So I’m going to redo the operating statement with revenue plus deferred Robux, or what Roblox calls “bookings,” as the top line. Bookings are a much more accurate representation of their cash flows from app store owners like Apple and Google.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e9fd5871111e25c87be06898e293801d\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"392\"></p>\n<p>The point is this is already a profitable company, despite the negative GAAP earnings, with $524 million in cash flows from operations in 2020 (CFOs count deferred revenue).</p>\n<p>What’s more, this is an efficient, mature operation. On every new tech listing, I have a metric I call “the revenue juicer.” Growth companies know analysts focus on revenue growth, so they juice that number with large discounts to customers that get filed away in cost-of-goods, or as a marketing cost. Revenues look larger, even if it doesn’t affect operating income. This metric is a way of catching that. It’s the sum of cost-of-goods and sales/marketing divided by revenue.</p>\n<p>Just to give you an idea of what this looks like, Snowflake (SNOW) is the most egregious recent example. In their last quarter, they spent $1.26 on customer acquisition for every dollar of revenue. Roblox spent $0.32 using GAAP revenue, and $0.28 using bookings as the denominator. They spent particularly little on marketing, only 3% of bookings and 6% of GAAP revenue. Their growth is largely organic, through word-of-mouth. Every parent of young children I know is talking about it. This is a virtuous cycle. As more people become attracted to the platform, more of them decide to make games, and the volume and quality of the games rises, attracting new users.</p>\n<p>Their administrative expenses are similarly in-line at 5% of bookings and 11% of GAAP revenue.</p>\n<p>This is a nicely run operation, that also has a big GAAP number coming in the March quarter as users spend down those holiday Robux account balances, and the revenue goes from deferred to GAAP.</p>\n<p>But they are also expecting a drop-off in engagement from the pandemic highs as people begin to spend more time out of their houses. So let’s talk about user metrics.</p>\n<p><b>User Metrics</b></p>\n<p>What we see here is huge growth in user metrics in 2020 that is not sustainable in a post-pandemic environment. Starting with daily active users:</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ca65d547a060f9d5415cd3d4b43962f7\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"377\"></p>\n<p>But I hate DAUs. They tell you nothing about what people are doing while there. Fortunately, Roblox breaks out total hours of usage.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a6ac29876f67948190c8a606cfab6209\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"377\"></p>\n<p>Putting those together, on average, Roblox users spent an extra half hour a day in the app in 2020, after dipping slightly in 2019.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dd012aa8b818b763e6cc1f3a1d7eca35\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"377\"></p>\n<p>That extra half hour is the pandemic effect in a nutshell. Users are also spending more every hour.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/be94d53323e077a3f12325a6b38ed19f\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"377\"></p>\n<p>My guess is they revert back to 2018-2019 type numbers in 2021 in those last two metrics. The company is also predicting that we could see some negative comps in 2021. Here’s their 2021 guidance from last week:</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/557691b5f03b6c7536bea5c651ada13d\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"149\"><span>The party ends Q2.</span></p>\n<p>The Whale Problem</p>\n<p>I’m a fan of S-1 “Risk Factors” sections. In the first place there’s a lot of information in there. But also, from the tone and language of how it’s written, you can get a sense of how management wants to frame problems. Are they being honest and forthright, and using plain English, or are they using a lot of management doublespeak? If it’sthe latter, it makes me sniff everything twice.</p>\n<p>Right off the bat, in the first paragraph, they made a friend:</p>\n<blockquote>\n We have experienced rapid growth in the three months ended June 30, 2020, September 30, 2020, December 31, 2020, and for a portion of the three months ended March 31, 2020, due in part to the COVID-19 pandemic given our users have been online more as a result of global COVID-19 shelter-in-place policies. For example, our bookings increased 171% from the year ended December 31, 2019 to the year ended December 31, 2020. We do not expect these activity levels to be sustained, and in future periods we expect growth rates for our revenue to decline, and we may not experience any growth in bookings or our user base during periods where we are comparing against COVID-19 impacted periods.\n</blockquote>\n<p>This is carried through in their 2021 guidance we just looked at. This is a great example of their language in this section — simple, clear, informative. But the thing that stood out to me was something I was looking for, because it’s a thing that bothers me always, the so-called Whale Problem, or the 80-20 Problem. There are many companies in the free-to-play gaming business that get a very large portion of their revenues, around 80%, from a small number of users, around 20%. Those 20% are the “whales.” Roblox’ description:</p>\n<blockquote>\n <b><i>We rely on a very small percentage of our total users for a significant majority of our revenue and bookings that we derive from our platform.</i></b>\n</blockquote>\n<blockquote>\n We generate substantially all of our revenue through the sales of our virtual currency, “Robux,” which players can use to purchase virtual items sold by our developer and creator community on the platform. Only a small portion of our users regularly purchase Robux through subscriptions and pay for experiences and virtual items compared to all users who use our platform in any period.\n</blockquote>\n<p>The term “whale” comes from the casino business, where much of the house’s take comes from these whales. How this works at casinos is a great example as why I view this as a problem. Some of the highest paid people at casinos are the “hosts,” whose job it is to attract and retain whales. It is a large part of their focus and Opex. The problem is what attracts the whales will not always work on the general public. Casinos solved this problem with the one-on-one marketing of the hosts, and by having separate gaming areas for the whales.</p>\n<p>In the gaming world, companies can fall into the same trap, but don’t have as clean a solution as the high-roller rooms in casinos. All users, from the whales to the people who never pay a dime, are all mixed together, by design. The trap here is the efforts to attract whales turns off everyone else — the other 80% that provide the network effects, but very little revenue.</p>\n<p>At some point, management is going to come under pressure to keep revenues growing fast, and that means more whales, but that can also limit total user growth long term. They calmed my fears a bit with another section of Risk Factors:</p>\n<blockquote>\n <b><i>We focus our business on our developers, creators, and users, and acting in their interests in the long-term may conflict with the short-term expectations of analysts and investors.</i></b>\n</blockquote>\n<blockquote>\n A significant part of our business strategy and culture is to focus on long-term growth and developer, creator, and user experience over short-term financial results. We expect our expenses to continue to increase in the future as we broaden our developer, creator, and user community, as developers, creators, and users increase the amount and types of experiences and virtual items they make available on our platform and the content they consume, and as we develop and further enhance our platform, expand our technical infrastructure and data centers, and hire additional employees to support our expanding operations.\n</blockquote>\n<p>This is the right choice for what they are trying to build. Let’s hope they remember that in a couple of years.</p>\n<p>Wrapping Up</p>\n<p>First, some summary bullets:</p>\n<ul>\n <li>Roblox is not a game, but a platform for both designing and playing games. They have 20 million games on the platform.</li>\n <li>Like other gaming companies, they are trying to build a metaverse that blends real and persistent virtual worlds. Social aspects are key in Roblox, and I believe they are focusing on the right parts of this, putting a lot of emphasis on having a safe, fun environment for all ages.</li>\n <li>They have what I consider a durable long-term strategy.</li>\n <li>Their growth up to now has been almost entirely via word-of-mouth.</li>\n <li>Without a quirk in GAAP reporting, they are actually a profitable company with over a half billion in operational cash flows in 2020.</li>\n <li>Like many gaming companies, their user metrics all saw outrageous growth in 2020 due to the pandemic. That cannot be matched in 2021. Q1 GAAP numbers will be still very large due to high Robux balances at the end of 2020 and the same pandemic conditions, but the party ends Q2.</li>\n</ul>\n<p>So I like what they have brewing here, despite all the long-term challenges of building something so ambitious. But that last bullet leads me to believe there is a better price coming later in the year when the reality of post-pandemic gaming patterns settle in. It looks like they packed a couple of years of growth into one year. As such, at current prices, which puts it with a higher market cap than EA (EA), makes me think there is a much better price coming later in the year. That’s why the neutral rating.</p>\n<p>I’ll circle back when they report Q1.</p>","source":"seekingalpha","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Roblox Builds The Metaverse</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nRoblox Builds The Metaverse\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-03-12 21:08 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4413403-roblox-builds-metaverse><strong>seekingalpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Summary\n\nRoblox is not a game, but a platform for both designing and playing games.\nLike other gaming companies, they are trying to build a metaverse that blends real and persistent virtual worlds.\n...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4413403-roblox-builds-metaverse\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"RBLX":"Roblox Corporation"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4413403-roblox-builds-metaverse","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/5a36db9d73b4222bc376d24ccc48c8a4","article_id":"1144000725","content_text":"Summary\n\nRoblox is not a game, but a platform for both designing and playing games.\nLike other gaming companies, they are trying to build a metaverse that blends real and persistent virtual worlds.\nThey have what I consider a durable long-term strategy and stellar word-of-mouth marketing.\nLike many gaming companies, their user metrics all saw outrageous growth in 2020 due to the pandemic. That cannot be matched after Q1 2021.\nAs such, I think a better price will be available later in the year.\n\n\nNobody Knows Anything\n\n Nobody knows anything. Not one person in the entire motion picture field knows for a certainty what’s going to work. Every time out it’s a guess — and if you’re lucky, an educated one.\n\n\n - William Goldman,Adventures in the Screen Trade\n\nI live in LA, and many of my friends and neighbors are in the film and TV industry, and I even once worked at Warner Brothers TV, Warner's TV production arm. Even if they don’t know where it came from, that three-word phrase, “nobody knows anything,” is one everybody knows, and is as close to gospel as you get in Hollywood.\nOne of the greatest screenwriters of all time, Goldman’s point was that it is impossible to ever know exactly what audiences are going to want, and even the smartest, cagiest, most creative executives are frequently wrong. Complicating that is the very long time it takes to go from screenplay to screen. What may have been perfect cultural timing at conception may already be stale by the time people can see it.\nI see this exact problem in game studios as well, prominently in that last part about timing. Especially in the AAA game world, development times can extend for years. Creators get immersed in the world they are building, and meanwhile outside the walls of the studio, the world is changing. I think Apple TV+’s Mythic Quest, a comedy about a fictional MMORPG studio, dramatizes a lot of this very well.\nRoblox’s (RBLX) model solves the Nobody Knows Anything Problem in the way YouTube (GOOG)(NASDAQ:GOOGL)solved it for video. Roblox is not really a game, but a platform for designing and playing games. It gets frequently compared to Minecraft (MSFT), because they both rely on user creativity, but it is more akin to Unreal Engine, Epic’s game development platform. But that’s for developers. Roblox brings game publishing to the masses the way YouTube democratized video broadcasting.\nThe YouTube model is that most of their content is terrible, but that there is so much of it, there is also a huge volume of good stuff that rises to the top and gets monetized, especially when we are talking about niche audiences. That Roblox graphic above, “Millions of Experiences” is the same model in a three-word slogan.\nRoblox does not have to come up with the Next Big Thing, and the one after that, and the one after that. They are counting on their users to do it for them. Amongst millions of worlds, thousands are going to be of interest to players.\nBut as much as I like the model, I can’t recommend the stock for two reasons. In the first place, they have already seen huge pandemic-related growth, and even they are predicting user engagement will be flattish or down in 2021. But more to the point, Roblox closed its first day of trading with a market cap over $40 billion. The stock price was up to over $70 aftermarket after listing at $45. The problem is this:\nData by YCharts\nThat valuation does not make a ton of sense right now for a company with under a billion in GAAP revenue. But that aside, this is one to keep an eye on. I believe a better price will come later in the year as the report soft comps with pandemic quarters.\nIt’s A Game Development Platform, Not A Game\nMany companies like to refer to their IP stack as a “platform” to imply that a lot can be built upon it. Most of the time, that’s just management buzzwording. But Roblox is genuinely a gaming platform for both creators and users, which makes it distinct.\nDeveloping games is not as simple as they’d like to make out, but it is much simpler than any other method.\nRoblox Studio screenshot\nRoblox comes with a huge library of modifiable characters, environments and objects. While much can be scripted, games can be authored without writing a single line of code, using built-in scripts and behaviors. It also has a plugin architecture, and there are many which add functionality or ease-of-use to the development environment, or add game content. They have 35 million of these in their developer store. This is a full stack development tool that even beginners can use.\nThere are thousands of these videos on YouTube. More complex gameplay and objects require scripting in Roblox’s Lua language, but it tends to be much simpler than alternative languages. My point here is that a wide range of game designers - from kids to professionals - can use this thing and create something very simple, or something very complex.\nThe majority of users will never download Roblox Studio. They counted 33 million daily active users in 2020, and 8 million “active developers.” 1.5 million earned something from their creations, so that’s probably a more realistic number. Only 300 earned more than $100,000, so it’s still a small and growing opportunity for game developers. Developers are paid 70% of the Robux - the in-game currency - their content earns, which encourages the many small earners to funnel that back into gameplay, and not convert it into real bucks.\nBut most users will only ever experience the mobile app for playing the games. So it is actually very different from Minecraft, to which it gets frequently compared:\n\nSo while there is some general overlap, mostly in the idea that creativity is one of the core parts of the game, they mostly are pretty different. Minecraft is also infinitely modifiable, but it is not millions of games.\nAs 2020 closed, there were 20 million games, which opens up a new challenge: discoverability. Apple’s(NASDAQ:AAPL)struggles with this in the App Store, despite big investments there, highlight what a challenge that is. My own experience is that they are doing pretty well, but have a ways to go, like everyone else that is relying on algorithmic discovery.\nThe Metaverse\nWhat Roblox is building here is something futurists have referred to as a “metaverse,” a term lifted from a 1992 sci-fi novel,Snow Crash. You can think about the metaverse as a combination of persistent virtual worlds, and the real world interacting - the world of the film Ready Player One, but hopefully less awful. Roblox talks about 8 parts of this that make up the metaverse they are building.\n\nThe avatar. How each individual player chooses to represent themselves in virtual worlds. These can be self-designed or purchased.\nFriends. You are interacting with your real-life friends, and new ones you make on the platform. By December, they were processing 2 million chat messages a day. They do not have voice yet, mostly because they are working on a system that enforces their trust and civility standards, which is far easier to do with plain text messages (item 8 below).\n“Immersiveness.” They are working hard on iterating the graphics so 3D worlds can be everything from cartoony to highly realistic. The progress from even 5 years ago is extraordinary, and light years ahead of their original platform, which looked more like the blocky Minecraft world.\nGlobal and mobile. Games dynamically downshift graphics and rendering on older devices, or where internet connections are poor. Localization rollout is very far along, but slowed by their focus on content moderation. Again, this is an artifact of item 8 below. Their China strategy is a joint venture with Tencent.\nVariety. Millions of worlds.\n“Frictionless” movement between worlds in a matter of seconds. Games load incrementally, as data is needed. Users average playing 20 different games per month.\nMonetized via Robux, their in-game currency. Also future potential from ad revenue, but I believe they will limit this because of the next item.\nTrust and civility. This is super key for the long-term growth of the platform - to not let a small minority of trolls ruin the experience for everyone else. After developer payments, the largest line item in their Opex is “Infrastructure and trust & safety.” I view this as a crucial investment.\n\nRoblox is far from the only company trying to put something like this together, but I like their strategy, especially these aspects:\n\nCombining development and gameplay into one platform solves the Nobody Knows Anything Problem.\nTheir emphasis on the social aspects of gameplay.\nTheir emphasis on trust and civility.\nMonetization that is already working, and an untapped advertising stream of revenue in the future.\nThey run their own backend cloud, customized for their needs and ambitions. In some regions, they fall back to AWS (AMZN).\nThey prefer small, autonomous teams to large hierarchical groups, and encourage cross-pollination between groups.\nThe “moat” comes when they reach enough scale. They are not close yet.\nTheir future plans include translating this model focused on engagement with your friends and content creation to other areas like education, work, live events and video. I believe they have a key opportunity to become the preferred work-from-home platform over Zoom (ZM).\n\nThis is a wholistic, Apple-like strategy that is built to last.\nFinancials\nI specified GAAP revenue in the intro because digital goods companies like Roblox have complications, even that far up the operating statement. The big issue is that monetization is done through the sale of Robux, the in-game currency. But until the Robux are spent in-game, they are counted as deferred revenue, and not counted in GAAP revenue. This makes quite the difference.\n\nAs you can see, there were a lot of Christmas Robux still in user accounts at the end of 2020. So I’m going to redo the operating statement with revenue plus deferred Robux, or what Roblox calls “bookings,” as the top line. Bookings are a much more accurate representation of their cash flows from app store owners like Apple and Google.\n\nThe point is this is already a profitable company, despite the negative GAAP earnings, with $524 million in cash flows from operations in 2020 (CFOs count deferred revenue).\nWhat’s more, this is an efficient, mature operation. On every new tech listing, I have a metric I call “the revenue juicer.” Growth companies know analysts focus on revenue growth, so they juice that number with large discounts to customers that get filed away in cost-of-goods, or as a marketing cost. Revenues look larger, even if it doesn’t affect operating income. This metric is a way of catching that. It’s the sum of cost-of-goods and sales/marketing divided by revenue.\nJust to give you an idea of what this looks like, Snowflake (SNOW) is the most egregious recent example. In their last quarter, they spent $1.26 on customer acquisition for every dollar of revenue. Roblox spent $0.32 using GAAP revenue, and $0.28 using bookings as the denominator. They spent particularly little on marketing, only 3% of bookings and 6% of GAAP revenue. Their growth is largely organic, through word-of-mouth. Every parent of young children I know is talking about it. This is a virtuous cycle. As more people become attracted to the platform, more of them decide to make games, and the volume and quality of the games rises, attracting new users.\nTheir administrative expenses are similarly in-line at 5% of bookings and 11% of GAAP revenue.\nThis is a nicely run operation, that also has a big GAAP number coming in the March quarter as users spend down those holiday Robux account balances, and the revenue goes from deferred to GAAP.\nBut they are also expecting a drop-off in engagement from the pandemic highs as people begin to spend more time out of their houses. So let’s talk about user metrics.\nUser Metrics\nWhat we see here is huge growth in user metrics in 2020 that is not sustainable in a post-pandemic environment. Starting with daily active users:\n\nBut I hate DAUs. They tell you nothing about what people are doing while there. Fortunately, Roblox breaks out total hours of usage.\n\nPutting those together, on average, Roblox users spent an extra half hour a day in the app in 2020, after dipping slightly in 2019.\n\nThat extra half hour is the pandemic effect in a nutshell. Users are also spending more every hour.\n\nMy guess is they revert back to 2018-2019 type numbers in 2021 in those last two metrics. The company is also predicting that we could see some negative comps in 2021. Here’s their 2021 guidance from last week:\nThe party ends Q2.\nThe Whale Problem\nI’m a fan of S-1 “Risk Factors” sections. In the first place there’s a lot of information in there. But also, from the tone and language of how it’s written, you can get a sense of how management wants to frame problems. Are they being honest and forthright, and using plain English, or are they using a lot of management doublespeak? If it’sthe latter, it makes me sniff everything twice.\nRight off the bat, in the first paragraph, they made a friend:\n\n We have experienced rapid growth in the three months ended June 30, 2020, September 30, 2020, December 31, 2020, and for a portion of the three months ended March 31, 2020, due in part to the COVID-19 pandemic given our users have been online more as a result of global COVID-19 shelter-in-place policies. For example, our bookings increased 171% from the year ended December 31, 2019 to the year ended December 31, 2020. We do not expect these activity levels to be sustained, and in future periods we expect growth rates for our revenue to decline, and we may not experience any growth in bookings or our user base during periods where we are comparing against COVID-19 impacted periods.\n\nThis is carried through in their 2021 guidance we just looked at. This is a great example of their language in this section — simple, clear, informative. But the thing that stood out to me was something I was looking for, because it’s a thing that bothers me always, the so-called Whale Problem, or the 80-20 Problem. There are many companies in the free-to-play gaming business that get a very large portion of their revenues, around 80%, from a small number of users, around 20%. Those 20% are the “whales.” Roblox’ description:\n\nWe rely on a very small percentage of our total users for a significant majority of our revenue and bookings that we derive from our platform.\n\n\n We generate substantially all of our revenue through the sales of our virtual currency, “Robux,” which players can use to purchase virtual items sold by our developer and creator community on the platform. Only a small portion of our users regularly purchase Robux through subscriptions and pay for experiences and virtual items compared to all users who use our platform in any period.\n\nThe term “whale” comes from the casino business, where much of the house’s take comes from these whales. How this works at casinos is a great example as why I view this as a problem. Some of the highest paid people at casinos are the “hosts,” whose job it is to attract and retain whales. It is a large part of their focus and Opex. The problem is what attracts the whales will not always work on the general public. Casinos solved this problem with the one-on-one marketing of the hosts, and by having separate gaming areas for the whales.\nIn the gaming world, companies can fall into the same trap, but don’t have as clean a solution as the high-roller rooms in casinos. All users, from the whales to the people who never pay a dime, are all mixed together, by design. The trap here is the efforts to attract whales turns off everyone else — the other 80% that provide the network effects, but very little revenue.\nAt some point, management is going to come under pressure to keep revenues growing fast, and that means more whales, but that can also limit total user growth long term. They calmed my fears a bit with another section of Risk Factors:\n\nWe focus our business on our developers, creators, and users, and acting in their interests in the long-term may conflict with the short-term expectations of analysts and investors.\n\n\n A significant part of our business strategy and culture is to focus on long-term growth and developer, creator, and user experience over short-term financial results. We expect our expenses to continue to increase in the future as we broaden our developer, creator, and user community, as developers, creators, and users increase the amount and types of experiences and virtual items they make available on our platform and the content they consume, and as we develop and further enhance our platform, expand our technical infrastructure and data centers, and hire additional employees to support our expanding operations.\n\nThis is the right choice for what they are trying to build. Let’s hope they remember that in a couple of years.\nWrapping Up\nFirst, some summary bullets:\n\nRoblox is not a game, but a platform for both designing and playing games. They have 20 million games on the platform.\nLike other gaming companies, they are trying to build a metaverse that blends real and persistent virtual worlds. Social aspects are key in Roblox, and I believe they are focusing on the right parts of this, putting a lot of emphasis on having a safe, fun environment for all ages.\nThey have what I consider a durable long-term strategy.\nTheir growth up to now has been almost entirely via word-of-mouth.\nWithout a quirk in GAAP reporting, they are actually a profitable company with over a half billion in operational cash flows in 2020.\nLike many gaming companies, their user metrics all saw outrageous growth in 2020 due to the pandemic. That cannot be matched in 2021. Q1 GAAP numbers will be still very large due to high Robux balances at the end of 2020 and the same pandemic conditions, but the party ends Q2.\n\nSo I like what they have brewing here, despite all the long-term challenges of building something so ambitious. But that last bullet leads me to believe there is a better price coming later in the year when the reality of post-pandemic gaming patterns settle in. It looks like they packed a couple of years of growth into one year. As such, at current prices, which puts it with a higher market cap than EA (EA), makes me think there is a much better price coming later in the year. That’s why the neutral rating.\nI’ll circle back when they report Q1.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":565,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":168728328,"gmtCreate":1623984432164,"gmtModify":1634024702423,"author":{"id":"3569899268916978","authorId":"3569899268916978","name":"DY17","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3569899268916978","authorIdStr":"3569899268916978"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Bullish on $PLTR","listText":"Bullish on $PLTR","text":"Bullish on $PLTR","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/168728328","repostId":"1180977741","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1180977741","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1623981539,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1180977741?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-18 09:58","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Palantir: The Untold Truth","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1180977741","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Summary\n\nPalantir is often criticized for its lofty valuation multiples, stagnating customer base an","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p>\n<ul>\n <li>Palantir is often criticized for its lofty valuation multiples, stagnating customer base and its bleak margin profile.</li>\n <li>But the company is actually doing well in terms of customer growth, margin expansion and government order wins.</li>\n <li>Investors with a long-term time horizon may want to accumulate its shares on potential price corrections.</li>\n</ul>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6abc7f93f4c7e615f66dca20523d1c16\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1077\"><span>C Flanigan/Getty Images Entertainment</span></p>\n<p>Palantir (PLTR) is lately being lambasted in various investing forums on speculative grounds such as how its growth momentum could fizzle out soon, how its margin profile is dragging the company down and that the stock doesn’t justify its price premium. But the company isn't as bad. On the contrary, the data analytics firm is performing well on several parameters – such as customer growth, government order wins and margin expansion – which should come as an encouraging sign for its long-side investors and dispel such speculative bearish narratives. Let's take a closer look.</p>\n<p><b>Rapid Customer Growth</b></p>\n<p>Bears have been criticizing Palantir for its bespoke functionality ever since it went public. Its platforms involve customization for various workflows and customer needs, so bears feel the company faces difficulty in onboarding several customers at once and as a result, it’s bottlenecked and its growth momentum can fizzle out. While I respect contrasting opinions, fact of the matter here is that Palantir doesn’t seem to be struggling with customer adds.</p>\n<p>The company’s customer count increased by over 7% on a sequential basis in Q1 2021. Our database at Business Quant reveals that this pace of growth is actually higher than that reported by some of the other renowned names in the software application and infrastructure industries. This immediately dispels the narrative that Palantir faces difficulty in scaling customer relationships due to its bespoke features, whenit's performing better than peers in this regard.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/37577e60466b8a980efd8bee77b02711\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"516\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>The company’s elevated pace of customer additions shouldn’t come as a surprise to my readers. I’ve explained in my prior articles how the company is undertaking a slew of measures – such as adopting a customer-friendly&nbsp;payment model, ramping up its&nbsp;sales function&nbsp;and introducing&nbsp;free trials&nbsp;for major enterprises – to expand its customer base. These initiatives were announced only a few months ago, and will continue for the rest of FY21, so I expect Palantir to continue adding customers at a rapid rate in near future as well.</p>\n<p>Having said that, there’s no denying that Palantir’s customer base isn’t as sizable as some of its peers, but that’s also where its growth opportunity lies. It suggests that Palantir is yet to penetrate its target market in a big way and that its lower base effect makes it easier for the company to continue expanding its customer base at elevated rates.</p>\n<p>There are broadly four takeaways here, which, by the way, the bears seem to discount time and again. These are:</p>\n<ul>\n <li>Palantir's target market isn't saturated yet and it can still find new customers with ease,</li>\n <li>These new customers are bound to lift the company’s revenue higher in 2021 by a varied magnitude, depending on their contract value,</li>\n <li>If these are recurring contracts, then that’s going to boost Palantir’s future revenue projections and guidance,</li>\n <li>If these new customers eventually ramp up their spend, then that's also going to boost Palantir’s future cash flows.</li>\n</ul>\n<p>Regarding the last bullet, it's worth noting that Palantir’s top 20 customers, in general, have significantly ramped up their spending on the company’s data analytics platforms in each of the last 10 years. This new batch of customers, and any future customer additions, could also go through this spending expansion phase in the subsequent years and gradually boost Palantir’s revenue along the way. So, we must give due importance to its rapid pace of customer adds and not take it lightly.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f4923a1dd5cc6af812c6dd7b8335f878\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"426\"><span>(Source: BusinessQuant.com)</span></p>\n<p><b>Margin Expansion</b></p>\n<p>Another issue with assessing Palantir’s growth prospects is that the company isn’t profitable yet. While some feel the stock will remain subdued due to its weak margin profile, others feel it can collapse down to single digits. The frustration is understandable given the company posted a net loss of $0.07 per share in its most recent quarter.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/facd3a7bf5326c841c6f0e79d392d160\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"125\"><span>(Source:Seeking Alpha)</span></p>\n<p>But I wanted to see for myself if Palantir’s margin profile was actually as hopeless as many believe it to be. So, I compiled the margin profiles for about 90 software infrastructure stocks listed on US bourses. There's no denying that the company's net profit margin is in the red. But what's surprising here is that Palantir had actually posted one of the highest sequential net margin expansions in Q1, in its peer group. To the best of my knowledge, this aspect of Palantir’s business hasn’t been discussed on any investing forum.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/25614333f421bbcdaf90b43a6ed8e011\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"552\"><span>(Source: BusinessQuant.com)</span></p>\n<p>The company may not have been profitable so far, but that doesn’t mean it will remain unprofitable in the future as well. If its recent pace of margin expansion continues in the next several quarters, the company could become profitable in the next 2 to 3 years without sacrificing on its growth momentum. So, let’s give credit where it’s due. The community of professional analysts also shares this line of thought and projects Palantir's margin profile to materially improve going forward.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0b0017c547d56295730e8f7f4124935d\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"400\"><span>(Source:MarketScreener)</span></p>\n<p>Besides, with public shareholding involved now, its management is likely to be under constant pressure to deliver breakneck revenue growth rates, and/or achieve profitability in the near future, or risk being voted out of their positions. This pressure may not have been as intense prior to its direct listing, when fewer shareholders were involved. So, overall, I don’t think Palantir’s margin profile is hopeless as many believe it to be, and I expect the company to become profitable by 2024.</p>\n<p><b>Government Contract Wins</b></p>\n<p>Moving on, Palantir has been doing extremely well when it comes to securing government contracts. B2G contracts are generally tough to win – given the extensive qualification criteria, long turnaround times and heightened competition – but Palantir seems to have the figured out recipe for success on the government side of its business. For the uninitiated, its revenue from government contracts rose 76% year over year, accounted for about 61% of the company's overall revenue, in Q1.</p>\n<p>Unless the company botches up somewhere, these government agencies are likely going to internally recommend it for varied applications. They won’t have to qualify Palantir time and again for several criteria which could drive these internal cross-agency referrals in a speedy manner and these agencies might even ramp up their spending in pre-existing contracts. So, Palantir just needs to rinse-and-repeat its B2G (Business-to-Government) strategy, and its government revenue could continue growing rapidly.</p>\n<p>Palantir has also made steady progress with regards to its government business so far in Q2. Its Q2 is still ongoing, but at the time of this writing, the company has over $36 million worth of new current action obligations from government deals, agreements and contracts, most of which haven’t made the headlines. For the uninitiated, a new deal could be an addition to pre-existing deal, expand the scope of previously agreed upon deliverables, it could be entirely new in nature, have varied execution periods that span from months to years and/or also have a recurring revenue stream attached to it.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/091203d7b476076ff008ca0c3b0f6ad2\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"352\"><span>(Source: BusinessQuant.com)</span></p>\n<p>So, while there are several variables that prevent us from reliably estimating the near-term revenue impact from these deals, Palantir’s shareholders with a long-term time horizon should feel reassured that their company continues to make steady progress towards growing its government business.</p>\n<p><b>Final Thoughts</b></p>\n<p>Palantir’s shares are currently trading at about 43-times its trailing twelve-month sales which is, undeniably, high by conventional standards.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/40584e7d2ca5458e8609338887f80e2f\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"361\"><span>(Source: BusinessQuant.com)</span></p>\n<p>However, its rich valuations alone shouldn't be the basis of a bear thesis. Palantir's valuation multiples may be high, but note from the chart above thatits revenue growth rate in Q1 was also higher than most of its peers.</p>\n<p>So, I believe the price premium is justified by the company’s rapid pace of revenue growth (illustrated in the chart above), its qualitative growth catalysts discussed in this article and its relatively secure government revenue stream.</p>\n<p>Keeping these factors in mind, investors with a multi-year time horizon may want to increase exposure to Palantir on potential price corrections. The stock is likely to reach new highs as its growth catalysts eventually materialize, and as the company approaches profitability, in the next 2 to 3 years. Good Luck!</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Palantir: The Untold Truth</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nPalantir: The Untold Truth\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-06-18 09:58 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4435125-palantir-the-untold-truth><strong>seekingalpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Summary\n\nPalantir is often criticized for its lofty valuation multiples, stagnating customer base and its bleak margin profile.\nBut the company is actually doing well in terms of customer growth, ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4435125-palantir-the-untold-truth\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"PLTR":"Palantir Technologies Inc."},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4435125-palantir-the-untold-truth","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1180977741","content_text":"Summary\n\nPalantir is often criticized for its lofty valuation multiples, stagnating customer base and its bleak margin profile.\nBut the company is actually doing well in terms of customer growth, margin expansion and government order wins.\nInvestors with a long-term time horizon may want to accumulate its shares on potential price corrections.\n\nC Flanigan/Getty Images Entertainment\nPalantir (PLTR) is lately being lambasted in various investing forums on speculative grounds such as how its growth momentum could fizzle out soon, how its margin profile is dragging the company down and that the stock doesn’t justify its price premium. But the company isn't as bad. On the contrary, the data analytics firm is performing well on several parameters – such as customer growth, government order wins and margin expansion – which should come as an encouraging sign for its long-side investors and dispel such speculative bearish narratives. Let's take a closer look.\nRapid Customer Growth\nBears have been criticizing Palantir for its bespoke functionality ever since it went public. Its platforms involve customization for various workflows and customer needs, so bears feel the company faces difficulty in onboarding several customers at once and as a result, it’s bottlenecked and its growth momentum can fizzle out. While I respect contrasting opinions, fact of the matter here is that Palantir doesn’t seem to be struggling with customer adds.\nThe company’s customer count increased by over 7% on a sequential basis in Q1 2021. Our database at Business Quant reveals that this pace of growth is actually higher than that reported by some of the other renowned names in the software application and infrastructure industries. This immediately dispels the narrative that Palantir faces difficulty in scaling customer relationships due to its bespoke features, whenit's performing better than peers in this regard.\n\nThe company’s elevated pace of customer additions shouldn’t come as a surprise to my readers. I’ve explained in my prior articles how the company is undertaking a slew of measures – such as adopting a customer-friendly payment model, ramping up its sales function and introducing free trials for major enterprises – to expand its customer base. These initiatives were announced only a few months ago, and will continue for the rest of FY21, so I expect Palantir to continue adding customers at a rapid rate in near future as well.\nHaving said that, there’s no denying that Palantir’s customer base isn’t as sizable as some of its peers, but that’s also where its growth opportunity lies. It suggests that Palantir is yet to penetrate its target market in a big way and that its lower base effect makes it easier for the company to continue expanding its customer base at elevated rates.\nThere are broadly four takeaways here, which, by the way, the bears seem to discount time and again. These are:\n\nPalantir's target market isn't saturated yet and it can still find new customers with ease,\nThese new customers are bound to lift the company’s revenue higher in 2021 by a varied magnitude, depending on their contract value,\nIf these are recurring contracts, then that’s going to boost Palantir’s future revenue projections and guidance,\nIf these new customers eventually ramp up their spend, then that's also going to boost Palantir’s future cash flows.\n\nRegarding the last bullet, it's worth noting that Palantir’s top 20 customers, in general, have significantly ramped up their spending on the company’s data analytics platforms in each of the last 10 years. This new batch of customers, and any future customer additions, could also go through this spending expansion phase in the subsequent years and gradually boost Palantir’s revenue along the way. So, we must give due importance to its rapid pace of customer adds and not take it lightly.\n(Source: BusinessQuant.com)\nMargin Expansion\nAnother issue with assessing Palantir’s growth prospects is that the company isn’t profitable yet. While some feel the stock will remain subdued due to its weak margin profile, others feel it can collapse down to single digits. The frustration is understandable given the company posted a net loss of $0.07 per share in its most recent quarter.\n(Source:Seeking Alpha)\nBut I wanted to see for myself if Palantir’s margin profile was actually as hopeless as many believe it to be. So, I compiled the margin profiles for about 90 software infrastructure stocks listed on US bourses. There's no denying that the company's net profit margin is in the red. But what's surprising here is that Palantir had actually posted one of the highest sequential net margin expansions in Q1, in its peer group. To the best of my knowledge, this aspect of Palantir’s business hasn’t been discussed on any investing forum.\n(Source: BusinessQuant.com)\nThe company may not have been profitable so far, but that doesn’t mean it will remain unprofitable in the future as well. If its recent pace of margin expansion continues in the next several quarters, the company could become profitable in the next 2 to 3 years without sacrificing on its growth momentum. So, let’s give credit where it’s due. The community of professional analysts also shares this line of thought and projects Palantir's margin profile to materially improve going forward.\n(Source:MarketScreener)\nBesides, with public shareholding involved now, its management is likely to be under constant pressure to deliver breakneck revenue growth rates, and/or achieve profitability in the near future, or risk being voted out of their positions. This pressure may not have been as intense prior to its direct listing, when fewer shareholders were involved. So, overall, I don’t think Palantir’s margin profile is hopeless as many believe it to be, and I expect the company to become profitable by 2024.\nGovernment Contract Wins\nMoving on, Palantir has been doing extremely well when it comes to securing government contracts. B2G contracts are generally tough to win – given the extensive qualification criteria, long turnaround times and heightened competition – but Palantir seems to have the figured out recipe for success on the government side of its business. For the uninitiated, its revenue from government contracts rose 76% year over year, accounted for about 61% of the company's overall revenue, in Q1.\nUnless the company botches up somewhere, these government agencies are likely going to internally recommend it for varied applications. They won’t have to qualify Palantir time and again for several criteria which could drive these internal cross-agency referrals in a speedy manner and these agencies might even ramp up their spending in pre-existing contracts. So, Palantir just needs to rinse-and-repeat its B2G (Business-to-Government) strategy, and its government revenue could continue growing rapidly.\nPalantir has also made steady progress with regards to its government business so far in Q2. Its Q2 is still ongoing, but at the time of this writing, the company has over $36 million worth of new current action obligations from government deals, agreements and contracts, most of which haven’t made the headlines. For the uninitiated, a new deal could be an addition to pre-existing deal, expand the scope of previously agreed upon deliverables, it could be entirely new in nature, have varied execution periods that span from months to years and/or also have a recurring revenue stream attached to it.\n(Source: BusinessQuant.com)\nSo, while there are several variables that prevent us from reliably estimating the near-term revenue impact from these deals, Palantir’s shareholders with a long-term time horizon should feel reassured that their company continues to make steady progress towards growing its government business.\nFinal Thoughts\nPalantir’s shares are currently trading at about 43-times its trailing twelve-month sales which is, undeniably, high by conventional standards.\n(Source: BusinessQuant.com)\nHowever, its rich valuations alone shouldn't be the basis of a bear thesis. Palantir's valuation multiples may be high, but note from the chart above thatits revenue growth rate in Q1 was also higher than most of its peers.\nSo, I believe the price premium is justified by the company’s rapid pace of revenue growth (illustrated in the chart above), its qualitative growth catalysts discussed in this article and its relatively secure government revenue stream.\nKeeping these factors in mind, investors with a multi-year time horizon may want to increase exposure to Palantir on potential price corrections. The stock is likely to reach new highs as its growth catalysts eventually materialize, and as the company approaches profitability, in the next 2 to 3 years. Good Luck!","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":186,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":122421186,"gmtCreate":1624630669145,"gmtModify":1633950297180,"author":{"id":"3569899268916978","authorId":"3569899268916978","name":"DY17","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3569899268916978","authorIdStr":"3569899268916978"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"So bullish on $MU, to the moon","listText":"So bullish on $MU, to the moon","text":"So bullish on $MU, to the moon","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/122421186","repostId":"2146073358","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":267,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":164607198,"gmtCreate":1624197756614,"gmtModify":1634009580566,"author":{"id":"3569899268916978","authorId":"3569899268916978","name":"DY17","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3569899268916978","authorIdStr":"3569899268916978"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Bullish from $ADBE","listText":"Bullish from $ADBE","text":"Bullish from $ADBE","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/164607198","repostId":"2144774740","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2144774740","kind":"highlight","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"The leading daily newsletter for the latest financial and business news. 33Yrs Helping Stock Investors with Investing Insights, Tools, News & More.","home_visible":0,"media_name":"Investors","id":"1085713068","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/608dd68a89ed486e18f64efe3136266c"},"pubTimestamp":1624030096,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2144774740?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-18 23:28","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Adobe Getting Lift From Economic Reopening Post-Pandemic","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2144774740","media":"Investors","summary":"Software giant Adobe is benefiting as the economy reopens following the Covid-19 pandemic, a senior executive says.","content":"<p>Software giant <b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ADBE\">Adobe</a></b> is benefiting as the economy reopens as the Covid-19 pandemic wanes, a senior executive says. The company's beat-and-raise quarterly report provided proof of that. ADBE stock jumped on Friday.</p>\n<p>The maker of digital media and marketing software late Thursday reported fiscal second-quarter earnings that easily topped expectations. Adobe also guided above views for the current quarter.</p>\n<p>The San Jose, Calif.-based company earned an adjusted $3.03 a share on sales of $3.84 billion in the quarter ended June 4. On a year-over-year basis, Adobe earnings rose 24% while sales climbed 23%.</p>\n<p>For the current quarter, Adobe expects to earn an adjusted $3 a share, up 17%, on sales of $3.88 billion, up 20%.</p>\n<h2>ADBE Stock Rises After Earnings Report</h2>\n<p>In morning trading on the stock market today, ADBE stock advanced 2.2%, near 563.35. Earlier in the session, ADBE stock notched a record high 570.</p>\n<p>\"All three of our businesses — Creative Cloud, Document Cloud and <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/EXP.AU\">Experience</a> Cloud — just killed it this quarter with excellent performance,\" Chief Financial Officer John Murphy told Investor's Business Daily. \"Content creation and customer experience engagement in personalized ways are resonating across all of our businesses. And it's really driving the momentum and acceleration in the business.\"</p>\n<p>That momentum will continue in the company's seasonally weaker fiscal third quarter, Murphy said. The current quarter includes the summer months of June, July and August.</p>\n<p>\"The macroeconomic stability is giving a lot of enterprises confidence to invest again,\" Murphy said. \"Companies are prioritizing digital transformation.\"</p>\n<p>The reopening of the economy and return to offices after the pandemic should provide a tailwind for Adobe's business, he said.</p>\n<h2>Analysts Raise Price Targets On Adobe Stock</h2>\n<p>At least 15 Wall Street analysts raised their price targets on ADBE stock after the earnings report.</p>\n<p>Mizuho Securities analyst Gregg Moskowitz reiterated his buy rating on ADBE stock and upped his price target to 640 from 600.</p>\n<p>\"Adobe's expansive portfolio of software solutions has made it the gold standard in content creation, consumption, and collaboration,\" Moskowitz said in a note to clients. \"Adobe is very well positioned to benefit from digital transformation with its comprehensive end-to-end offering that differentiates it from competitors.\"</p>\n<p>On June 11, ADBE stock broke out of a 40-week&nbsp;consolidation period&nbsp;at a&nbsp;buy point&nbsp;of 536.98, according to&nbsp;IBD MarketSmith charts.</p>\n<p>However, IBD Leaderboard analysis offered investors an earlier buy point of 525.54 from a cup base within the larger consolidation pattern.</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Adobe Getting Lift From Economic Reopening Post-Pandemic</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nAdobe Getting Lift From Economic Reopening Post-Pandemic\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<div class=\"head\" \">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/608dd68a89ed486e18f64efe3136266c);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Investors </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2021-06-18 23:28</p>\n</div>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Software giant <b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ADBE\">Adobe</a></b> is benefiting as the economy reopens as the Covid-19 pandemic wanes, a senior executive says. The company's beat-and-raise quarterly report provided proof of that. ADBE stock jumped on Friday.</p>\n<p>The maker of digital media and marketing software late Thursday reported fiscal second-quarter earnings that easily topped expectations. Adobe also guided above views for the current quarter.</p>\n<p>The San Jose, Calif.-based company earned an adjusted $3.03 a share on sales of $3.84 billion in the quarter ended June 4. On a year-over-year basis, Adobe earnings rose 24% while sales climbed 23%.</p>\n<p>For the current quarter, Adobe expects to earn an adjusted $3 a share, up 17%, on sales of $3.88 billion, up 20%.</p>\n<h2>ADBE Stock Rises After Earnings Report</h2>\n<p>In morning trading on the stock market today, ADBE stock advanced 2.2%, near 563.35. Earlier in the session, ADBE stock notched a record high 570.</p>\n<p>\"All three of our businesses — Creative Cloud, Document Cloud and <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/EXP.AU\">Experience</a> Cloud — just killed it this quarter with excellent performance,\" Chief Financial Officer John Murphy told Investor's Business Daily. \"Content creation and customer experience engagement in personalized ways are resonating across all of our businesses. And it's really driving the momentum and acceleration in the business.\"</p>\n<p>That momentum will continue in the company's seasonally weaker fiscal third quarter, Murphy said. The current quarter includes the summer months of June, July and August.</p>\n<p>\"The macroeconomic stability is giving a lot of enterprises confidence to invest again,\" Murphy said. \"Companies are prioritizing digital transformation.\"</p>\n<p>The reopening of the economy and return to offices after the pandemic should provide a tailwind for Adobe's business, he said.</p>\n<h2>Analysts Raise Price Targets On Adobe Stock</h2>\n<p>At least 15 Wall Street analysts raised their price targets on ADBE stock after the earnings report.</p>\n<p>Mizuho Securities analyst Gregg Moskowitz reiterated his buy rating on ADBE stock and upped his price target to 640 from 600.</p>\n<p>\"Adobe's expansive portfolio of software solutions has made it the gold standard in content creation, consumption, and collaboration,\" Moskowitz said in a note to clients. \"Adobe is very well positioned to benefit from digital transformation with its comprehensive end-to-end offering that differentiates it from competitors.\"</p>\n<p>On June 11, ADBE stock broke out of a 40-week&nbsp;consolidation period&nbsp;at a&nbsp;buy point&nbsp;of 536.98, according to&nbsp;IBD MarketSmith charts.</p>\n<p>However, IBD Leaderboard analysis offered investors an earlier buy point of 525.54 from a cup base within the larger consolidation pattern.</p>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"ADBE":"Adobe"},"is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2144774740","content_text":"Software giant Adobe is benefiting as the economy reopens as the Covid-19 pandemic wanes, a senior executive says. The company's beat-and-raise quarterly report provided proof of that. ADBE stock jumped on Friday.\nThe maker of digital media and marketing software late Thursday reported fiscal second-quarter earnings that easily topped expectations. Adobe also guided above views for the current quarter.\nThe San Jose, Calif.-based company earned an adjusted $3.03 a share on sales of $3.84 billion in the quarter ended June 4. On a year-over-year basis, Adobe earnings rose 24% while sales climbed 23%.\nFor the current quarter, Adobe expects to earn an adjusted $3 a share, up 17%, on sales of $3.88 billion, up 20%.\nADBE Stock Rises After Earnings Report\nIn morning trading on the stock market today, ADBE stock advanced 2.2%, near 563.35. Earlier in the session, ADBE stock notched a record high 570.\n\"All three of our businesses — Creative Cloud, Document Cloud and Experience Cloud — just killed it this quarter with excellent performance,\" Chief Financial Officer John Murphy told Investor's Business Daily. \"Content creation and customer experience engagement in personalized ways are resonating across all of our businesses. And it's really driving the momentum and acceleration in the business.\"\nThat momentum will continue in the company's seasonally weaker fiscal third quarter, Murphy said. The current quarter includes the summer months of June, July and August.\n\"The macroeconomic stability is giving a lot of enterprises confidence to invest again,\" Murphy said. \"Companies are prioritizing digital transformation.\"\nThe reopening of the economy and return to offices after the pandemic should provide a tailwind for Adobe's business, he said.\nAnalysts Raise Price Targets On Adobe Stock\nAt least 15 Wall Street analysts raised their price targets on ADBE stock after the earnings report.\nMizuho Securities analyst Gregg Moskowitz reiterated his buy rating on ADBE stock and upped his price target to 640 from 600.\n\"Adobe's expansive portfolio of software solutions has made it the gold standard in content creation, consumption, and collaboration,\" Moskowitz said in a note to clients. \"Adobe is very well positioned to benefit from digital transformation with its comprehensive end-to-end offering that differentiates it from competitors.\"\nOn June 11, ADBE stock broke out of a 40-week consolidation period at a buy point of 536.98, according to IBD MarketSmith charts.\nHowever, IBD Leaderboard analysis offered investors an earlier buy point of 525.54 from a cup base within the larger consolidation pattern.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":396,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":328446639,"gmtCreate":1615555578221,"gmtModify":1703490851191,"author":{"id":"3569899268916978","authorId":"3569899268916978","name":"DY17","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3569899268916978","authorIdStr":"3569899268916978"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Good","listText":"Good","text":"Good","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/328446639","repostId":"1144000725","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1144000725","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1615554528,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1144000725?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-03-12 21:08","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Roblox Builds The Metaverse","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1144000725","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Summary\n\nRoblox is not a game, but a platform for both designing and playing games.\nLike other gamin","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p>\n<ul>\n <li>Roblox is not a game, but a platform for both designing and playing games.</li>\n <li>Like other gaming companies, they are trying to build a metaverse that blends real and persistent virtual worlds.</li>\n <li>They have what I consider a durable long-term strategy and stellar word-of-mouth marketing.</li>\n <li>Like many gaming companies, their user metrics all saw outrageous growth in 2020 due to the pandemic. That cannot be matched after Q1 2021.</li>\n <li>As such, I think a better price will be available later in the year.</li>\n</ul>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/da521a162b09482db5b85e52ad4f9858\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"346\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>Nobody Knows Anything</p>\n<blockquote>\n Nobody knows anything. Not one person in the entire motion picture field knows for a certainty what’s going to work. Every time out it’s a guess — and if you’re lucky, an educated one.\n</blockquote>\n<blockquote>\n - William Goldman,Adventures in the Screen Trade\n</blockquote>\n<p>I live in LA, and many of my friends and neighbors are in the film and TV industry, and I even once worked at Warner Brothers TV, Warner's TV production arm. Even if they don’t know where it came from, that three-word phrase, “nobody knows anything,” is one everybody knows, and is as close to gospel as you get in Hollywood.</p>\n<p>One of the&nbsp;greatest screenwriters of all time, Goldman’s point was that it is impossible to ever know exactly what audiences are going to want, and even the smartest, cagiest, most creative executives are frequently wrong. Complicating that is the very long time it takes to go from screenplay to screen. What may have been perfect cultural timing at conception may already be stale by the time people can see it.</p>\n<p>I see this exact problem in game studios as well, prominently in that last part about timing. Especially in the AAA game world, development times can extend for years. Creators get immersed in the world they are building, and meanwhile outside the walls of the studio, the world is changing. I think Apple TV+’s Mythic Quest, a comedy about a fictional MMORPG studio, dramatizes a lot of this very well.</p>\n<p>Roblox’s (RBLX) model solves the Nobody Knows Anything Problem in the way YouTube (GOOG)(NASDAQ:GOOGL)solved it for video. Roblox is not really a game, but a platform for designing and playing games. It gets frequently compared to Minecraft (MSFT), because they both rely on user creativity, but it is more akin to Unreal Engine, Epic’s game development platform. But that’s for developers. Roblox brings game publishing to the masses the way YouTube democratized video broadcasting.</p>\n<p>The YouTube model is that most of their content is terrible, but that there is so much of it, there is also a huge volume of good stuff that rises to the top and gets monetized, especially when we are talking about niche audiences. That Roblox graphic above, “Millions of Experiences” is the same model in a three-word slogan.</p>\n<p>Roblox does not have to come up with the Next Big Thing, and the one after that, and the one after that. They are counting on their users to do it for them. Amongst millions of worlds, thousands are going to be of interest to players.</p>\n<p>But as much as I like the model, I can’t recommend the stock for two reasons. In the first place, they have already seen huge pandemic-related growth, and even they are predicting user engagement will be flattish or down in 2021. But more to the point, Roblox closed its first day of trading with a market cap over $40 billion. The stock price was up to over $70 aftermarket after listing at $45. The problem is this:</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ce11bd249428baffd59f8154f10e022c\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"436\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p>\n<p>That valuation does not make a ton of sense right now for a company with under a billion in GAAP revenue. But that aside, this is one to keep an eye on. I believe a better price will come later in the year as the report soft comps with pandemic quarters.</p>\n<p><b>It’s A Game Development Platform, Not A Game</b></p>\n<p>Many companies like to refer to their IP stack as a “platform” to imply that a lot can be built upon it. Most of the time, that’s just management buzzwording. But Roblox is genuinely a gaming platform for both creators and users, which makes it distinct.</p>\n<p>Developing games is not as simple as they’d like to make out, but it is much simpler than any other method.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e171a67b3fa5b09a5b8fc1009f9a3506\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"550\"><span>Roblox Studio screenshot</span></p>\n<p>Roblox comes with a huge library of modifiable characters, environments and objects. While much can be scripted, games can be authored without writing a single line of code, using built-in scripts and behaviors. It also has a plugin architecture, and there are many which add functionality or ease-of-use to the development environment, or add game content. They have 35 million of these in their developer store. This is a full stack development tool that even beginners can use.</p>\n<p>There are thousands of these videos on YouTube. More complex gameplay and objects require scripting in Roblox’s Lua language, but it tends to be much simpler than alternative languages. My point here is that a wide range of game designers - from kids to professionals - can use this thing and create something very simple, or something very complex.</p>\n<p>The majority of users will never download Roblox Studio. They counted 33 million daily active users in 2020, and 8 million “active developers.” 1.5 million earned something from their creations, so that’s probably a more realistic number. Only 300 earned more than $100,000, so it’s still a small and growing opportunity for game developers. Developers are paid 70% of the Robux - the in-game currency - their content earns, which encourages the many small earners to funnel that back into gameplay, and not convert it into real bucks.</p>\n<p>But most users will only ever experience the mobile app for playing the games. So it is actually very different from Minecraft, to which it gets frequently compared:</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cfb43273a10448d6157e5031eb16f226\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"295\"></p>\n<p>So while there is some general overlap, mostly in the idea that creativity is one of the core parts of the game, they mostly are pretty different. Minecraft is also infinitely modifiable, but it is not millions of games.</p>\n<p>As 2020 closed, there were 20 million games, which opens up a new challenge: discoverability. Apple’s(NASDAQ:AAPL)struggles with this in the App Store, despite big investments there, highlight what a challenge that is. My own experience is that they are doing pretty well, but have a ways to go, like everyone else that is relying on algorithmic discovery.</p>\n<p><b>The Metaverse</b></p>\n<p>What Roblox is building here is something futurists have referred to as a “metaverse,” a term lifted from a 1992 sci-fi novel,Snow Crash. You can think about the metaverse as a combination of persistent virtual worlds, and the real world interacting - the world of the film Ready Player One, but hopefully less awful. Roblox talks about 8 parts of this that make up the metaverse they are building.</p>\n<ol>\n <li>The avatar. How each individual player chooses to represent themselves in virtual worlds. These can be self-designed or purchased.</li>\n <li>Friends. You are interacting with your real-life friends, and new ones you make on the platform. By December, they were processing 2 million chat messages a day. They do not have voice yet, mostly because they are working on a system that enforces their trust and civility standards, which is far easier to do with plain text messages (item 8 below).</li>\n <li>“Immersiveness.” They are working hard on iterating the graphics so 3D worlds can be everything from cartoony to highly realistic. The progress from even 5 years ago is extraordinary, and light years ahead of their original platform, which looked more like the blocky Minecraft world.</li>\n <li>Global and mobile. Games dynamically downshift graphics and rendering on older devices, or where internet connections are poor. Localization rollout is very far along, but slowed by their focus on content moderation. Again, this is an artifact of item 8 below. Their China strategy is a joint venture with Tencent.</li>\n <li>Variety. Millions of worlds.</li>\n <li>“Frictionless” movement between worlds in a matter of seconds. Games load incrementally, as data is needed. Users average playing 20 different games per month.</li>\n <li>Monetized via Robux, their in-game currency. Also future potential from ad revenue, but I believe they will limit this because of the next item.</li>\n <li>Trust and civility. This is super key for the long-term growth of the platform - to not let a small minority of trolls ruin the experience for everyone else. After developer payments, the largest line item in their Opex is “Infrastructure and trust &amp; safety.” I view this as a crucial investment.</li>\n</ol>\n<p>Roblox is far from the only company trying to put something like this together, but I like their strategy, especially these aspects:</p>\n<ul>\n <li>Combining development and gameplay into one platform solves the Nobody Knows Anything Problem.</li>\n <li>Their emphasis on the social aspects of gameplay.</li>\n <li>Their emphasis on trust and civility.</li>\n <li>Monetization that is already working, and an untapped advertising stream of revenue in the future.</li>\n <li>They run their own backend cloud, customized for their needs and ambitions. In some regions, they fall back to AWS (AMZN).</li>\n <li>They prefer small, autonomous teams to large hierarchical groups, and encourage cross-pollination between groups.</li>\n <li>The “moat” comes when they reach enough scale. They are not close yet.</li>\n <li>Their future plans include translating this model focused on engagement with your friends and content creation to other areas like education, work, live events and video. I believe they have a key opportunity to become the preferred work-from-home platform over Zoom (ZM).</li>\n</ul>\n<p>This is a wholistic, Apple-like strategy that is built to last.</p>\n<p><b>Financials</b></p>\n<p>I specified GAAP revenue in the intro because digital goods companies like Roblox have complications, even that far up the operating statement. The big issue is that monetization is done through the sale of Robux, the in-game currency. But until the Robux are spent in-game, they are counted as deferred revenue, and not counted in GAAP revenue. This makes quite the difference.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/659642cfe091e1d54c0a2f10ef66e5e2\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"377\"></p>\n<p>As you can see, there were a lot of Christmas Robux still in user accounts at the end of 2020. So I’m going to redo the operating statement with revenue plus deferred Robux, or what Roblox calls “bookings,” as the top line. Bookings are a much more accurate representation of their cash flows from app store owners like Apple and Google.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e9fd5871111e25c87be06898e293801d\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"392\"></p>\n<p>The point is this is already a profitable company, despite the negative GAAP earnings, with $524 million in cash flows from operations in 2020 (CFOs count deferred revenue).</p>\n<p>What’s more, this is an efficient, mature operation. On every new tech listing, I have a metric I call “the revenue juicer.” Growth companies know analysts focus on revenue growth, so they juice that number with large discounts to customers that get filed away in cost-of-goods, or as a marketing cost. Revenues look larger, even if it doesn’t affect operating income. This metric is a way of catching that. It’s the sum of cost-of-goods and sales/marketing divided by revenue.</p>\n<p>Just to give you an idea of what this looks like, Snowflake (SNOW) is the most egregious recent example. In their last quarter, they spent $1.26 on customer acquisition for every dollar of revenue. Roblox spent $0.32 using GAAP revenue, and $0.28 using bookings as the denominator. They spent particularly little on marketing, only 3% of bookings and 6% of GAAP revenue. Their growth is largely organic, through word-of-mouth. Every parent of young children I know is talking about it. This is a virtuous cycle. As more people become attracted to the platform, more of them decide to make games, and the volume and quality of the games rises, attracting new users.</p>\n<p>Their administrative expenses are similarly in-line at 5% of bookings and 11% of GAAP revenue.</p>\n<p>This is a nicely run operation, that also has a big GAAP number coming in the March quarter as users spend down those holiday Robux account balances, and the revenue goes from deferred to GAAP.</p>\n<p>But they are also expecting a drop-off in engagement from the pandemic highs as people begin to spend more time out of their houses. So let’s talk about user metrics.</p>\n<p><b>User Metrics</b></p>\n<p>What we see here is huge growth in user metrics in 2020 that is not sustainable in a post-pandemic environment. Starting with daily active users:</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ca65d547a060f9d5415cd3d4b43962f7\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"377\"></p>\n<p>But I hate DAUs. They tell you nothing about what people are doing while there. Fortunately, Roblox breaks out total hours of usage.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a6ac29876f67948190c8a606cfab6209\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"377\"></p>\n<p>Putting those together, on average, Roblox users spent an extra half hour a day in the app in 2020, after dipping slightly in 2019.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dd012aa8b818b763e6cc1f3a1d7eca35\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"377\"></p>\n<p>That extra half hour is the pandemic effect in a nutshell. Users are also spending more every hour.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/be94d53323e077a3f12325a6b38ed19f\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"377\"></p>\n<p>My guess is they revert back to 2018-2019 type numbers in 2021 in those last two metrics. The company is also predicting that we could see some negative comps in 2021. Here’s their 2021 guidance from last week:</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/557691b5f03b6c7536bea5c651ada13d\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"149\"><span>The party ends Q2.</span></p>\n<p>The Whale Problem</p>\n<p>I’m a fan of S-1 “Risk Factors” sections. In the first place there’s a lot of information in there. But also, from the tone and language of how it’s written, you can get a sense of how management wants to frame problems. Are they being honest and forthright, and using plain English, or are they using a lot of management doublespeak? If it’sthe latter, it makes me sniff everything twice.</p>\n<p>Right off the bat, in the first paragraph, they made a friend:</p>\n<blockquote>\n We have experienced rapid growth in the three months ended June 30, 2020, September 30, 2020, December 31, 2020, and for a portion of the three months ended March 31, 2020, due in part to the COVID-19 pandemic given our users have been online more as a result of global COVID-19 shelter-in-place policies. For example, our bookings increased 171% from the year ended December 31, 2019 to the year ended December 31, 2020. We do not expect these activity levels to be sustained, and in future periods we expect growth rates for our revenue to decline, and we may not experience any growth in bookings or our user base during periods where we are comparing against COVID-19 impacted periods.\n</blockquote>\n<p>This is carried through in their 2021 guidance we just looked at. This is a great example of their language in this section — simple, clear, informative. But the thing that stood out to me was something I was looking for, because it’s a thing that bothers me always, the so-called Whale Problem, or the 80-20 Problem. There are many companies in the free-to-play gaming business that get a very large portion of their revenues, around 80%, from a small number of users, around 20%. Those 20% are the “whales.” Roblox’ description:</p>\n<blockquote>\n <b><i>We rely on a very small percentage of our total users for a significant majority of our revenue and bookings that we derive from our platform.</i></b>\n</blockquote>\n<blockquote>\n We generate substantially all of our revenue through the sales of our virtual currency, “Robux,” which players can use to purchase virtual items sold by our developer and creator community on the platform. Only a small portion of our users regularly purchase Robux through subscriptions and pay for experiences and virtual items compared to all users who use our platform in any period.\n</blockquote>\n<p>The term “whale” comes from the casino business, where much of the house’s take comes from these whales. How this works at casinos is a great example as why I view this as a problem. Some of the highest paid people at casinos are the “hosts,” whose job it is to attract and retain whales. It is a large part of their focus and Opex. The problem is what attracts the whales will not always work on the general public. Casinos solved this problem with the one-on-one marketing of the hosts, and by having separate gaming areas for the whales.</p>\n<p>In the gaming world, companies can fall into the same trap, but don’t have as clean a solution as the high-roller rooms in casinos. All users, from the whales to the people who never pay a dime, are all mixed together, by design. The trap here is the efforts to attract whales turns off everyone else — the other 80% that provide the network effects, but very little revenue.</p>\n<p>At some point, management is going to come under pressure to keep revenues growing fast, and that means more whales, but that can also limit total user growth long term. They calmed my fears a bit with another section of Risk Factors:</p>\n<blockquote>\n <b><i>We focus our business on our developers, creators, and users, and acting in their interests in the long-term may conflict with the short-term expectations of analysts and investors.</i></b>\n</blockquote>\n<blockquote>\n A significant part of our business strategy and culture is to focus on long-term growth and developer, creator, and user experience over short-term financial results. We expect our expenses to continue to increase in the future as we broaden our developer, creator, and user community, as developers, creators, and users increase the amount and types of experiences and virtual items they make available on our platform and the content they consume, and as we develop and further enhance our platform, expand our technical infrastructure and data centers, and hire additional employees to support our expanding operations.\n</blockquote>\n<p>This is the right choice for what they are trying to build. Let’s hope they remember that in a couple of years.</p>\n<p>Wrapping Up</p>\n<p>First, some summary bullets:</p>\n<ul>\n <li>Roblox is not a game, but a platform for both designing and playing games. They have 20 million games on the platform.</li>\n <li>Like other gaming companies, they are trying to build a metaverse that blends real and persistent virtual worlds. Social aspects are key in Roblox, and I believe they are focusing on the right parts of this, putting a lot of emphasis on having a safe, fun environment for all ages.</li>\n <li>They have what I consider a durable long-term strategy.</li>\n <li>Their growth up to now has been almost entirely via word-of-mouth.</li>\n <li>Without a quirk in GAAP reporting, they are actually a profitable company with over a half billion in operational cash flows in 2020.</li>\n <li>Like many gaming companies, their user metrics all saw outrageous growth in 2020 due to the pandemic. That cannot be matched in 2021. Q1 GAAP numbers will be still very large due to high Robux balances at the end of 2020 and the same pandemic conditions, but the party ends Q2.</li>\n</ul>\n<p>So I like what they have brewing here, despite all the long-term challenges of building something so ambitious. But that last bullet leads me to believe there is a better price coming later in the year when the reality of post-pandemic gaming patterns settle in. It looks like they packed a couple of years of growth into one year. As such, at current prices, which puts it with a higher market cap than EA (EA), makes me think there is a much better price coming later in the year. That’s why the neutral rating.</p>\n<p>I’ll circle back when they report Q1.</p>","source":"seekingalpha","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Roblox Builds The Metaverse</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nRoblox Builds The Metaverse\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-03-12 21:08 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4413403-roblox-builds-metaverse><strong>seekingalpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Summary\n\nRoblox is not a game, but a platform for both designing and playing games.\nLike other gaming companies, they are trying to build a metaverse that blends real and persistent virtual worlds.\n...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4413403-roblox-builds-metaverse\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"RBLX":"Roblox Corporation"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4413403-roblox-builds-metaverse","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/5a36db9d73b4222bc376d24ccc48c8a4","article_id":"1144000725","content_text":"Summary\n\nRoblox is not a game, but a platform for both designing and playing games.\nLike other gaming companies, they are trying to build a metaverse that blends real and persistent virtual worlds.\nThey have what I consider a durable long-term strategy and stellar word-of-mouth marketing.\nLike many gaming companies, their user metrics all saw outrageous growth in 2020 due to the pandemic. That cannot be matched after Q1 2021.\nAs such, I think a better price will be available later in the year.\n\n\nNobody Knows Anything\n\n Nobody knows anything. Not one person in the entire motion picture field knows for a certainty what’s going to work. Every time out it’s a guess — and if you’re lucky, an educated one.\n\n\n - William Goldman,Adventures in the Screen Trade\n\nI live in LA, and many of my friends and neighbors are in the film and TV industry, and I even once worked at Warner Brothers TV, Warner's TV production arm. Even if they don’t know where it came from, that three-word phrase, “nobody knows anything,” is one everybody knows, and is as close to gospel as you get in Hollywood.\nOne of the greatest screenwriters of all time, Goldman’s point was that it is impossible to ever know exactly what audiences are going to want, and even the smartest, cagiest, most creative executives are frequently wrong. Complicating that is the very long time it takes to go from screenplay to screen. What may have been perfect cultural timing at conception may already be stale by the time people can see it.\nI see this exact problem in game studios as well, prominently in that last part about timing. Especially in the AAA game world, development times can extend for years. Creators get immersed in the world they are building, and meanwhile outside the walls of the studio, the world is changing. I think Apple TV+’s Mythic Quest, a comedy about a fictional MMORPG studio, dramatizes a lot of this very well.\nRoblox’s (RBLX) model solves the Nobody Knows Anything Problem in the way YouTube (GOOG)(NASDAQ:GOOGL)solved it for video. Roblox is not really a game, but a platform for designing and playing games. It gets frequently compared to Minecraft (MSFT), because they both rely on user creativity, but it is more akin to Unreal Engine, Epic’s game development platform. But that’s for developers. Roblox brings game publishing to the masses the way YouTube democratized video broadcasting.\nThe YouTube model is that most of their content is terrible, but that there is so much of it, there is also a huge volume of good stuff that rises to the top and gets monetized, especially when we are talking about niche audiences. That Roblox graphic above, “Millions of Experiences” is the same model in a three-word slogan.\nRoblox does not have to come up with the Next Big Thing, and the one after that, and the one after that. They are counting on their users to do it for them. Amongst millions of worlds, thousands are going to be of interest to players.\nBut as much as I like the model, I can’t recommend the stock for two reasons. In the first place, they have already seen huge pandemic-related growth, and even they are predicting user engagement will be flattish or down in 2021. But more to the point, Roblox closed its first day of trading with a market cap over $40 billion. The stock price was up to over $70 aftermarket after listing at $45. The problem is this:\nData by YCharts\nThat valuation does not make a ton of sense right now for a company with under a billion in GAAP revenue. But that aside, this is one to keep an eye on. I believe a better price will come later in the year as the report soft comps with pandemic quarters.\nIt’s A Game Development Platform, Not A Game\nMany companies like to refer to their IP stack as a “platform” to imply that a lot can be built upon it. Most of the time, that’s just management buzzwording. But Roblox is genuinely a gaming platform for both creators and users, which makes it distinct.\nDeveloping games is not as simple as they’d like to make out, but it is much simpler than any other method.\nRoblox Studio screenshot\nRoblox comes with a huge library of modifiable characters, environments and objects. While much can be scripted, games can be authored without writing a single line of code, using built-in scripts and behaviors. It also has a plugin architecture, and there are many which add functionality or ease-of-use to the development environment, or add game content. They have 35 million of these in their developer store. This is a full stack development tool that even beginners can use.\nThere are thousands of these videos on YouTube. More complex gameplay and objects require scripting in Roblox’s Lua language, but it tends to be much simpler than alternative languages. My point here is that a wide range of game designers - from kids to professionals - can use this thing and create something very simple, or something very complex.\nThe majority of users will never download Roblox Studio. They counted 33 million daily active users in 2020, and 8 million “active developers.” 1.5 million earned something from their creations, so that’s probably a more realistic number. Only 300 earned more than $100,000, so it’s still a small and growing opportunity for game developers. Developers are paid 70% of the Robux - the in-game currency - their content earns, which encourages the many small earners to funnel that back into gameplay, and not convert it into real bucks.\nBut most users will only ever experience the mobile app for playing the games. So it is actually very different from Minecraft, to which it gets frequently compared:\n\nSo while there is some general overlap, mostly in the idea that creativity is one of the core parts of the game, they mostly are pretty different. Minecraft is also infinitely modifiable, but it is not millions of games.\nAs 2020 closed, there were 20 million games, which opens up a new challenge: discoverability. Apple’s(NASDAQ:AAPL)struggles with this in the App Store, despite big investments there, highlight what a challenge that is. My own experience is that they are doing pretty well, but have a ways to go, like everyone else that is relying on algorithmic discovery.\nThe Metaverse\nWhat Roblox is building here is something futurists have referred to as a “metaverse,” a term lifted from a 1992 sci-fi novel,Snow Crash. You can think about the metaverse as a combination of persistent virtual worlds, and the real world interacting - the world of the film Ready Player One, but hopefully less awful. Roblox talks about 8 parts of this that make up the metaverse they are building.\n\nThe avatar. How each individual player chooses to represent themselves in virtual worlds. These can be self-designed or purchased.\nFriends. You are interacting with your real-life friends, and new ones you make on the platform. By December, they were processing 2 million chat messages a day. They do not have voice yet, mostly because they are working on a system that enforces their trust and civility standards, which is far easier to do with plain text messages (item 8 below).\n“Immersiveness.” They are working hard on iterating the graphics so 3D worlds can be everything from cartoony to highly realistic. The progress from even 5 years ago is extraordinary, and light years ahead of their original platform, which looked more like the blocky Minecraft world.\nGlobal and mobile. Games dynamically downshift graphics and rendering on older devices, or where internet connections are poor. Localization rollout is very far along, but slowed by their focus on content moderation. Again, this is an artifact of item 8 below. Their China strategy is a joint venture with Tencent.\nVariety. Millions of worlds.\n“Frictionless” movement between worlds in a matter of seconds. Games load incrementally, as data is needed. Users average playing 20 different games per month.\nMonetized via Robux, their in-game currency. Also future potential from ad revenue, but I believe they will limit this because of the next item.\nTrust and civility. This is super key for the long-term growth of the platform - to not let a small minority of trolls ruin the experience for everyone else. After developer payments, the largest line item in their Opex is “Infrastructure and trust & safety.” I view this as a crucial investment.\n\nRoblox is far from the only company trying to put something like this together, but I like their strategy, especially these aspects:\n\nCombining development and gameplay into one platform solves the Nobody Knows Anything Problem.\nTheir emphasis on the social aspects of gameplay.\nTheir emphasis on trust and civility.\nMonetization that is already working, and an untapped advertising stream of revenue in the future.\nThey run their own backend cloud, customized for their needs and ambitions. In some regions, they fall back to AWS (AMZN).\nThey prefer small, autonomous teams to large hierarchical groups, and encourage cross-pollination between groups.\nThe “moat” comes when they reach enough scale. They are not close yet.\nTheir future plans include translating this model focused on engagement with your friends and content creation to other areas like education, work, live events and video. I believe they have a key opportunity to become the preferred work-from-home platform over Zoom (ZM).\n\nThis is a wholistic, Apple-like strategy that is built to last.\nFinancials\nI specified GAAP revenue in the intro because digital goods companies like Roblox have complications, even that far up the operating statement. The big issue is that monetization is done through the sale of Robux, the in-game currency. But until the Robux are spent in-game, they are counted as deferred revenue, and not counted in GAAP revenue. This makes quite the difference.\n\nAs you can see, there were a lot of Christmas Robux still in user accounts at the end of 2020. So I’m going to redo the operating statement with revenue plus deferred Robux, or what Roblox calls “bookings,” as the top line. Bookings are a much more accurate representation of their cash flows from app store owners like Apple and Google.\n\nThe point is this is already a profitable company, despite the negative GAAP earnings, with $524 million in cash flows from operations in 2020 (CFOs count deferred revenue).\nWhat’s more, this is an efficient, mature operation. On every new tech listing, I have a metric I call “the revenue juicer.” Growth companies know analysts focus on revenue growth, so they juice that number with large discounts to customers that get filed away in cost-of-goods, or as a marketing cost. Revenues look larger, even if it doesn’t affect operating income. This metric is a way of catching that. It’s the sum of cost-of-goods and sales/marketing divided by revenue.\nJust to give you an idea of what this looks like, Snowflake (SNOW) is the most egregious recent example. In their last quarter, they spent $1.26 on customer acquisition for every dollar of revenue. Roblox spent $0.32 using GAAP revenue, and $0.28 using bookings as the denominator. They spent particularly little on marketing, only 3% of bookings and 6% of GAAP revenue. Their growth is largely organic, through word-of-mouth. Every parent of young children I know is talking about it. This is a virtuous cycle. As more people become attracted to the platform, more of them decide to make games, and the volume and quality of the games rises, attracting new users.\nTheir administrative expenses are similarly in-line at 5% of bookings and 11% of GAAP revenue.\nThis is a nicely run operation, that also has a big GAAP number coming in the March quarter as users spend down those holiday Robux account balances, and the revenue goes from deferred to GAAP.\nBut they are also expecting a drop-off in engagement from the pandemic highs as people begin to spend more time out of their houses. So let’s talk about user metrics.\nUser Metrics\nWhat we see here is huge growth in user metrics in 2020 that is not sustainable in a post-pandemic environment. Starting with daily active users:\n\nBut I hate DAUs. They tell you nothing about what people are doing while there. Fortunately, Roblox breaks out total hours of usage.\n\nPutting those together, on average, Roblox users spent an extra half hour a day in the app in 2020, after dipping slightly in 2019.\n\nThat extra half hour is the pandemic effect in a nutshell. Users are also spending more every hour.\n\nMy guess is they revert back to 2018-2019 type numbers in 2021 in those last two metrics. The company is also predicting that we could see some negative comps in 2021. Here’s their 2021 guidance from last week:\nThe party ends Q2.\nThe Whale Problem\nI’m a fan of S-1 “Risk Factors” sections. In the first place there’s a lot of information in there. But also, from the tone and language of how it’s written, you can get a sense of how management wants to frame problems. Are they being honest and forthright, and using plain English, or are they using a lot of management doublespeak? If it’sthe latter, it makes me sniff everything twice.\nRight off the bat, in the first paragraph, they made a friend:\n\n We have experienced rapid growth in the three months ended June 30, 2020, September 30, 2020, December 31, 2020, and for a portion of the three months ended March 31, 2020, due in part to the COVID-19 pandemic given our users have been online more as a result of global COVID-19 shelter-in-place policies. For example, our bookings increased 171% from the year ended December 31, 2019 to the year ended December 31, 2020. We do not expect these activity levels to be sustained, and in future periods we expect growth rates for our revenue to decline, and we may not experience any growth in bookings or our user base during periods where we are comparing against COVID-19 impacted periods.\n\nThis is carried through in their 2021 guidance we just looked at. This is a great example of their language in this section — simple, clear, informative. But the thing that stood out to me was something I was looking for, because it’s a thing that bothers me always, the so-called Whale Problem, or the 80-20 Problem. There are many companies in the free-to-play gaming business that get a very large portion of their revenues, around 80%, from a small number of users, around 20%. Those 20% are the “whales.” Roblox’ description:\n\nWe rely on a very small percentage of our total users for a significant majority of our revenue and bookings that we derive from our platform.\n\n\n We generate substantially all of our revenue through the sales of our virtual currency, “Robux,” which players can use to purchase virtual items sold by our developer and creator community on the platform. Only a small portion of our users regularly purchase Robux through subscriptions and pay for experiences and virtual items compared to all users who use our platform in any period.\n\nThe term “whale” comes from the casino business, where much of the house’s take comes from these whales. How this works at casinos is a great example as why I view this as a problem. Some of the highest paid people at casinos are the “hosts,” whose job it is to attract and retain whales. It is a large part of their focus and Opex. The problem is what attracts the whales will not always work on the general public. Casinos solved this problem with the one-on-one marketing of the hosts, and by having separate gaming areas for the whales.\nIn the gaming world, companies can fall into the same trap, but don’t have as clean a solution as the high-roller rooms in casinos. All users, from the whales to the people who never pay a dime, are all mixed together, by design. The trap here is the efforts to attract whales turns off everyone else — the other 80% that provide the network effects, but very little revenue.\nAt some point, management is going to come under pressure to keep revenues growing fast, and that means more whales, but that can also limit total user growth long term. They calmed my fears a bit with another section of Risk Factors:\n\nWe focus our business on our developers, creators, and users, and acting in their interests in the long-term may conflict with the short-term expectations of analysts and investors.\n\n\n A significant part of our business strategy and culture is to focus on long-term growth and developer, creator, and user experience over short-term financial results. We expect our expenses to continue to increase in the future as we broaden our developer, creator, and user community, as developers, creators, and users increase the amount and types of experiences and virtual items they make available on our platform and the content they consume, and as we develop and further enhance our platform, expand our technical infrastructure and data centers, and hire additional employees to support our expanding operations.\n\nThis is the right choice for what they are trying to build. Let’s hope they remember that in a couple of years.\nWrapping Up\nFirst, some summary bullets:\n\nRoblox is not a game, but a platform for both designing and playing games. They have 20 million games on the platform.\nLike other gaming companies, they are trying to build a metaverse that blends real and persistent virtual worlds. Social aspects are key in Roblox, and I believe they are focusing on the right parts of this, putting a lot of emphasis on having a safe, fun environment for all ages.\nThey have what I consider a durable long-term strategy.\nTheir growth up to now has been almost entirely via word-of-mouth.\nWithout a quirk in GAAP reporting, they are actually a profitable company with over a half billion in operational cash flows in 2020.\nLike many gaming companies, their user metrics all saw outrageous growth in 2020 due to the pandemic. That cannot be matched in 2021. Q1 GAAP numbers will be still very large due to high Robux balances at the end of 2020 and the same pandemic conditions, but the party ends Q2.\n\nSo I like what they have brewing here, despite all the long-term challenges of building something so ambitious. But that last bullet leads me to believe there is a better price coming later in the year when the reality of post-pandemic gaming patterns settle in. It looks like they packed a couple of years of growth into one year. As such, at current prices, which puts it with a higher market cap than EA (EA), makes me think there is a much better price coming later in the year. That’s why the neutral rating.\nI’ll circle back when they report Q1.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":565,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":168725878,"gmtCreate":1623984479294,"gmtModify":1634024698899,"author":{"id":"3569899268916978","authorId":"3569899268916978","name":"DY17","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3569899268916978","authorIdStr":"3569899268916978"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Bullish on $NIO","listText":"Bullish on $NIO","text":"Bullish on $NIO","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/168725878","repostId":"1148576248","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1148576248","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1623979883,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1148576248?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-18 09:31","market":"us","language":"en","title":"NIO Is Winning","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1148576248","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"NIO is #1 in China's electric SUV market for good reason.The company's success is driven by its brilliant innovations and marketing strategy.NIO is growing faster than Tesla, and yet, it is trading at a discount.NIO Inc.  stands out for its strong market position- #1 market share in electric SUV in China- and innovation in the rapidly growing and highly competitive electric vehicle industry. This article will discuss why NIO is winning against some stiff competition, including against Tesla .In ","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p>\n<ul>\n <li>NIO is #1 in China's electric SUV market for good reason.</li>\n <li>The company's success is driven by its brilliant innovations and marketing strategy.</li>\n <li>NIO is growing faster than Tesla, and yet, it is trading at a discount.</li>\n</ul>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/790fae23b830463fec748d2deb2ce336\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1024\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>PonyWang/E+ via Getty Images</span></p>\n<p>NIO Inc. (NYSE:NIO) stands out for its strong market position- #1 market share in electric SUV in China- and innovation in the rapidly growing and highly competitive electric vehicle industry. This article will discuss why NIO is winning against some stiff competition, including against Tesla (TSLA).</p>\n<p>In addition, we will discuss NIO's business, financials, trading, valuation, and risks so readers could reach their own informed decision.</p>\n<p><b>Business: Why NIO Wins</b></p>\n<p>NIO positions itself in the premium SUV segment, focusing on smart EVs with a differentiated battery strategy.</p>\n<p>Delivered in March 2019, the company's first model, the ES8, is a luxury 7-seater SUV that is still the company's flagship product today. The ES8 is equipped with ADAS and AI system [NOMI] and is comparable to the BYD Song, Tesla Model X, the Audi Q7 45 e-Tron, etc.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/443e2773f70c00c6faac8ca063e978a5\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"387\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source: Company</span></p>\n<p>Leveraging the installed base and customer goodwill due to the highly successful ES8, NIO successfully launched the ES6 and EC6.Recently, the company launched the ET7, its first sedan.</p>\n<p>Today, NIO is the top-selling brand in China's all-electric SUV market in April with a 23% market share, higher than Tesla's 17%, WM Motor and XPeng Motors'(NYSE:XPEV)7%, according to China Automotive Technology and Research Center data.</p>\n<p>One of the biggest competitive differentiators is NIO'sbattery strategy, which all but eliminates range anxiety, one of the biggest barriers to mass EV adoption. Not only could NIO cars be charged at any charging station for EVs, but the company also built hundreds of battery swapping stations in key cities in China, with plans to expanding to Europe.</p>\n<p>NIO's battery swapping strategy also gives the company the ability to offer a battery-as-a-service [BaaS] solution, which reduces the upfrontcostof purchasing an NIO vehicle by ~$11,000. Since cost is another major barrier to mass EV adoption, NIO's battery strategy appears brilliant as it solves both the range and cost problems.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5b25fbb85bffd39310cd27cbb2bde57a\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"216\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source: Company</span></p>\n<p>Another differentiator is the NIO brand, which management created brilliantly by introducing the EP9 in 2016. Six EP9s have been sold to NIO investors for 2.5 million pounds, creating an aura of exclusivity and quality around the brand. Next, NIO targeted the mass-market luxury SUV segment with the ES8, firmly establishing the company as a luxury car OEM.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ad41c960ce02f1e3f3e7575ac00beee0\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"350\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source: Company</span></p>\n<p>Chinese companies must struggle against the common perception that they make low-quality products. This is the same perception issue that Japanese companies faced following their defeat after WW2. Japan solved this problem by moving up the value chain as their economy matured and creating high-quality brands such as Sony(NYSE:SONY). Today, Japan is known for its craftsmanship.</p>\n<p>China is following the same trajectory, and NIO is one of the emerging brands destroying the perception that \"made in China\" equates to poor quality. I strongly believe that investors who stubbornly hold on to that old perception will miss out on investing in some of the greatest brands the world will ever see.</p>\n<p>Buying an NIO car means much more than just getting a vehicle; it means getting into an exclusive club of services and convenience. Benefits include access to hundreds of swapping stations, lifetime free roadside rescue (including charge vans), lifetime free cellular connectivity, lifetime free warranty, and excellent customer service. This is a powerful selling point for NIO, differentiating it from Tesla, which hasrecentlydeveloped a poor reputation on the customer service front in China.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a73482aa0431694b760ab5c2d0aa6f53\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"211\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source: Company</span></p>\n<p>The company is pushing the envelope even further with&nbsp;NIO House, a literal clubhouse for customers, and&nbsp;NIO Life, which includes NIO branded lifestyle products. NIO's effort to build a lifestyle around its cars seems to be&nbsp;working. This is good news for investors because the only way to escape the competitive battlefield of automobile OEM is to sell services and lifestyles to customers. This is why Ferrari's (RACE) operating margin is well over 20%, while Ford (F) and General Motors (GM) are in the single digits.</p>\n<p><b>Financials &amp; Valuation</b></p>\n<p>NIO is in hyper-growth mode. In 2020, the company generated $2.5 billion in revenue, up 126% y/y. In 2021, the company is expected to grow 117% y/y to $5.4 billion.</p>\n<p>The company is not yet profitable but is expected to be by 2022. Gross margin only turned positive in 2020 and is expected to be 19.3% in 2021. EBITDA is expected to be negative $258 million in 2021 and a positive $206 million in 2022. Free cash flow is expected to be negative $42 million in 2021 before turning to a positive $354 million in 2022.</p>\n<p>However, despite the cash burn expected in 2021, investors should feel at ease since the company exited&nbsp;2020&nbsp;with $5.9 billion of cash and cash equivalents. Including $600 million in short-term investments and subtracting ~$2.1 billion in debt and operating leases and the expected negative free cash flow in 2021, NIO should exit 2021 with over $4 billion in net cash and investments. That is plenty of buffers since NIO is expected to generate positive free cash flow in 2022.</p>\n<p>Since NIO is not yet profitable, we will look at the forward EV/Sales multiple as is typical for hyper-growth companies not yet generating a profit. The company went public in September 2018, trading at around 7 to 8 times EV/Sales, before bottoming out at around 0.7 times sales in May 2019. The market, however, caught the EV fever in April 2020 and sent NIO's valuation soaring to a peak of 14.6x by January 2021. After the growth sell-off we recently experienced, NIO is currently sitting at a much more reasonable 8 times forward sales. This is a significant discount to TSLA's 10.2 times forward EV/Sales despite growing twice as fast (TSLA is expected to grow revenues by 57% in 2021 compared to NIO's 117%).</p>\n<p><b>Risks</b></p>\n<p>There are many risks associated with owning NIO.</p>\n<p>Although its battery swapping strategy is highly differentiated and seems to be growing rapidly, the jury is still out on the ultimate market share of battery swapping or fast-charging infrastructure. If fast charging technology continues to advance significantly, it will likely erode a key advantage of battery swapping: speed.</p>\n<p>NIO's business model is innovative and new. Unfortunately, the flip side of that is that it is untested, and NIO remains unprofitable. For many investors, NIO will remain a \"show me\" story until the profitability of its business model improves.</p>\n<p>NIO's ability to expand globally may be limited by the rising geopolitical tension between China and the US, and to a lesser extent, with Japan and Europe. The geopolitical situation remains highly opaque and uncertain, and is a risk factor for all auto OEMs.</p>\n<p>Auto OEMs are currently facing a severe chip&nbsp;shortage. In addition, the chip density in automobiles is increasing, making the OEMs increasingly reliant on semiconductor suppliers and foundries.</p>\n<p>NIO's competitive advantages may not overcome the massive scale advantage of ICE OEMs and much bigger EV players like Tesla and China's BYD.</p>\n<p><b>Takeaway</b></p>\n<p>NIO's technical and business model innovations make it a highly differentiated company in the exciting and rapidly growing EV market. The company is winning, and its competitive moat is getting bigger as its ecosystem of vehicles and services grows. Relative to the industry leader, Tesla, NIO's stock price seems like a bargain given its faster growth rate and lower multiples.</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>NIO Is Winning</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nNIO Is Winning\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-06-18 09:31 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4435341-nio-is-winning><strong>seekingalpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Summary\n\nNIO is #1 in China's electric SUV market for good reason.\nThe company's success is driven by its brilliant innovations and marketing strategy.\nNIO is growing faster than Tesla, and yet, it is...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4435341-nio-is-winning\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"NIO":"蔚来"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4435341-nio-is-winning","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1148576248","content_text":"Summary\n\nNIO is #1 in China's electric SUV market for good reason.\nThe company's success is driven by its brilliant innovations and marketing strategy.\nNIO is growing faster than Tesla, and yet, it is trading at a discount.\n\nPonyWang/E+ via Getty Images\nNIO Inc. (NYSE:NIO) stands out for its strong market position- #1 market share in electric SUV in China- and innovation in the rapidly growing and highly competitive electric vehicle industry. This article will discuss why NIO is winning against some stiff competition, including against Tesla (TSLA).\nIn addition, we will discuss NIO's business, financials, trading, valuation, and risks so readers could reach their own informed decision.\nBusiness: Why NIO Wins\nNIO positions itself in the premium SUV segment, focusing on smart EVs with a differentiated battery strategy.\nDelivered in March 2019, the company's first model, the ES8, is a luxury 7-seater SUV that is still the company's flagship product today. The ES8 is equipped with ADAS and AI system [NOMI] and is comparable to the BYD Song, Tesla Model X, the Audi Q7 45 e-Tron, etc.\nSource: Company\nLeveraging the installed base and customer goodwill due to the highly successful ES8, NIO successfully launched the ES6 and EC6.Recently, the company launched the ET7, its first sedan.\nToday, NIO is the top-selling brand in China's all-electric SUV market in April with a 23% market share, higher than Tesla's 17%, WM Motor and XPeng Motors'(NYSE:XPEV)7%, according to China Automotive Technology and Research Center data.\nOne of the biggest competitive differentiators is NIO'sbattery strategy, which all but eliminates range anxiety, one of the biggest barriers to mass EV adoption. Not only could NIO cars be charged at any charging station for EVs, but the company also built hundreds of battery swapping stations in key cities in China, with plans to expanding to Europe.\nNIO's battery swapping strategy also gives the company the ability to offer a battery-as-a-service [BaaS] solution, which reduces the upfrontcostof purchasing an NIO vehicle by ~$11,000. Since cost is another major barrier to mass EV adoption, NIO's battery strategy appears brilliant as it solves both the range and cost problems.\nSource: Company\nAnother differentiator is the NIO brand, which management created brilliantly by introducing the EP9 in 2016. Six EP9s have been sold to NIO investors for 2.5 million pounds, creating an aura of exclusivity and quality around the brand. Next, NIO targeted the mass-market luxury SUV segment with the ES8, firmly establishing the company as a luxury car OEM.\nSource: Company\nChinese companies must struggle against the common perception that they make low-quality products. This is the same perception issue that Japanese companies faced following their defeat after WW2. Japan solved this problem by moving up the value chain as their economy matured and creating high-quality brands such as Sony(NYSE:SONY). Today, Japan is known for its craftsmanship.\nChina is following the same trajectory, and NIO is one of the emerging brands destroying the perception that \"made in China\" equates to poor quality. I strongly believe that investors who stubbornly hold on to that old perception will miss out on investing in some of the greatest brands the world will ever see.\nBuying an NIO car means much more than just getting a vehicle; it means getting into an exclusive club of services and convenience. Benefits include access to hundreds of swapping stations, lifetime free roadside rescue (including charge vans), lifetime free cellular connectivity, lifetime free warranty, and excellent customer service. This is a powerful selling point for NIO, differentiating it from Tesla, which hasrecentlydeveloped a poor reputation on the customer service front in China.\nSource: Company\nThe company is pushing the envelope even further with NIO House, a literal clubhouse for customers, and NIO Life, which includes NIO branded lifestyle products. NIO's effort to build a lifestyle around its cars seems to be working. This is good news for investors because the only way to escape the competitive battlefield of automobile OEM is to sell services and lifestyles to customers. This is why Ferrari's (RACE) operating margin is well over 20%, while Ford (F) and General Motors (GM) are in the single digits.\nFinancials & Valuation\nNIO is in hyper-growth mode. In 2020, the company generated $2.5 billion in revenue, up 126% y/y. In 2021, the company is expected to grow 117% y/y to $5.4 billion.\nThe company is not yet profitable but is expected to be by 2022. Gross margin only turned positive in 2020 and is expected to be 19.3% in 2021. EBITDA is expected to be negative $258 million in 2021 and a positive $206 million in 2022. Free cash flow is expected to be negative $42 million in 2021 before turning to a positive $354 million in 2022.\nHowever, despite the cash burn expected in 2021, investors should feel at ease since the company exited 2020 with $5.9 billion of cash and cash equivalents. Including $600 million in short-term investments and subtracting ~$2.1 billion in debt and operating leases and the expected negative free cash flow in 2021, NIO should exit 2021 with over $4 billion in net cash and investments. That is plenty of buffers since NIO is expected to generate positive free cash flow in 2022.\nSince NIO is not yet profitable, we will look at the forward EV/Sales multiple as is typical for hyper-growth companies not yet generating a profit. The company went public in September 2018, trading at around 7 to 8 times EV/Sales, before bottoming out at around 0.7 times sales in May 2019. The market, however, caught the EV fever in April 2020 and sent NIO's valuation soaring to a peak of 14.6x by January 2021. After the growth sell-off we recently experienced, NIO is currently sitting at a much more reasonable 8 times forward sales. This is a significant discount to TSLA's 10.2 times forward EV/Sales despite growing twice as fast (TSLA is expected to grow revenues by 57% in 2021 compared to NIO's 117%).\nRisks\nThere are many risks associated with owning NIO.\nAlthough its battery swapping strategy is highly differentiated and seems to be growing rapidly, the jury is still out on the ultimate market share of battery swapping or fast-charging infrastructure. If fast charging technology continues to advance significantly, it will likely erode a key advantage of battery swapping: speed.\nNIO's business model is innovative and new. Unfortunately, the flip side of that is that it is untested, and NIO remains unprofitable. For many investors, NIO will remain a \"show me\" story until the profitability of its business model improves.\nNIO's ability to expand globally may be limited by the rising geopolitical tension between China and the US, and to a lesser extent, with Japan and Europe. The geopolitical situation remains highly opaque and uncertain, and is a risk factor for all auto OEMs.\nAuto OEMs are currently facing a severe chip shortage. In addition, the chip density in automobiles is increasing, making the OEMs increasingly reliant on semiconductor suppliers and foundries.\nNIO's competitive advantages may not overcome the massive scale advantage of ICE OEMs and much bigger EV players like Tesla and China's BYD.\nTakeaway\nNIO's technical and business model innovations make it a highly differentiated company in the exciting and rapidly growing EV market. The company is winning, and its competitive moat is getting bigger as its ecosystem of vehicles and services grows. Relative to the industry leader, Tesla, NIO's stock price seems like a bargain given its faster growth rate and lower multiples.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":241,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":168729213,"gmtCreate":1623984385632,"gmtModify":1634024704716,"author":{"id":"3569899268916978","authorId":"3569899268916978","name":"DY17","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3569899268916978","authorIdStr":"3569899268916978"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Bullish on $UPST","listText":"Bullish on $UPST","text":"Bullish on $UPST","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/168729213","repostId":"2144574107","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":278,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":192861399,"gmtCreate":1621178646211,"gmtModify":1634193570485,"author":{"id":"3569899268916978","authorId":"3569899268916978","name":"DY17","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3569899268916978","authorIdStr":"3569899268916978"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Bullish on $PLUG","listText":"Bullish on $PLUG","text":"Bullish on $PLUG","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/192861399","repostId":"1112039119","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1112039119","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Providing stock market headlines, business news, financials and earnings ","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Tiger Newspress","id":"1079075236","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1620997456,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1112039119?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-05-14 21:04","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Plug Power stock soars 12%, as restatement removes overhang of uncertainty","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1112039119","media":"Tiger Newspress","summary":"(May 14) Plug Power soars 12.48% in  pre-market aftercompleting the restatementof previously issued ","content":"<p>(May 14)&nbsp;Plug Power&nbsp;soars 12.48%&nbsp;in&nbsp;&nbsp;pre-market aftercompleting the restatementof previously issued financial statements for FY 2018 and FY 2019and quarterly filings for 2019 and 2020, and filing its FY 2020 annual report.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ecd165d751e65082ab116fba03d05e62\" tg-width=\"769\" tg-height=\"564\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">As expected, the adjustments did not affect Plug's cash position, business operations or economics of commercial arrangements, and there were no changes to gross billings.</p><p>Adjustments from the restatement and finalization of the 2020 annual report had a $0.10/share negative impact to 2020 earnings and a $0.03 negative impact to 2018 earnings.</p><p>For Q1 2021, Plug says it expects to report net revenue above $67M and gross billings above $70M.</p><p>For Q2, the company still sees net revenue above $102M and gross billings above $105M.</p><p>The company continues to forecast previously stated annual gross billings targets of $475M in 2021, $750M in 2022 and $1.7B in 2024.</p><p>Several analysts recently expressed confidence in the company, as this week's updates helped to \"dissipate the shroud of uncertainty hanging over Plug shares.\"</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Plug Power stock soars 12%, as restatement removes overhang of uncertainty</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nPlug Power stock soars 12%, as restatement removes overhang of uncertainty\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1079075236\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Tiger Newspress </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2021-05-14 21:04</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>(May 14)&nbsp;Plug Power&nbsp;soars 12.48%&nbsp;in&nbsp;&nbsp;pre-market aftercompleting the restatementof previously issued financial statements for FY 2018 and FY 2019and quarterly filings for 2019 and 2020, and filing its FY 2020 annual report.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ecd165d751e65082ab116fba03d05e62\" tg-width=\"769\" tg-height=\"564\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">As expected, the adjustments did not affect Plug's cash position, business operations or economics of commercial arrangements, and there were no changes to gross billings.</p><p>Adjustments from the restatement and finalization of the 2020 annual report had a $0.10/share negative impact to 2020 earnings and a $0.03 negative impact to 2018 earnings.</p><p>For Q1 2021, Plug says it expects to report net revenue above $67M and gross billings above $70M.</p><p>For Q2, the company still sees net revenue above $102M and gross billings above $105M.</p><p>The company continues to forecast previously stated annual gross billings targets of $475M in 2021, $750M in 2022 and $1.7B in 2024.</p><p>Several analysts recently expressed confidence in the company, as this week's updates helped to \"dissipate the shroud of uncertainty hanging over Plug shares.\"</p>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"PLUG":"普拉格能源"},"is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1112039119","content_text":"(May 14) Plug Power soars 12.48% in  pre-market aftercompleting the restatementof previously issued financial statements for FY 2018 and FY 2019and quarterly filings for 2019 and 2020, and filing its FY 2020 annual report.As expected, the adjustments did not affect Plug's cash position, business operations or economics of commercial arrangements, and there were no changes to gross billings.Adjustments from the restatement and finalization of the 2020 annual report had a $0.10/share negative impact to 2020 earnings and a $0.03 negative impact to 2018 earnings.For Q1 2021, Plug says it expects to report net revenue above $67M and gross billings above $70M.For Q2, the company still sees net revenue above $102M and gross billings above $105M.The company continues to forecast previously stated annual gross billings targets of $475M in 2021, $750M in 2022 and $1.7B in 2024.Several analysts recently expressed confidence in the company, as this week's updates helped to \"dissipate the shroud of uncertainty hanging over Plug shares.\"","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":527,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":109191200,"gmtCreate":1619670589900,"gmtModify":1634210838113,"author":{"id":"3569899268916978","authorId":"3569899268916978","name":"DY17","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3569899268916978","authorIdStr":"3569899268916978"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Interesting","listText":"Interesting","text":"Interesting","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/109191200","repostId":"1183966356","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1183966356","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1619665696,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1183966356?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-04-29 11:08","market":"us","language":"en","title":"NIO Q1 2021 Earnings Report Preview: What to Look For","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1183966356","media":"InvestoPedia","summary":"Analysts estimate earnings per ADS of -0.72 yuan vs. -1.66 yuan in Q1 FY 2020.Revenue is expected to soar on expanding vehicle sales.NIO Inc. , like many other automakers, was forced to halt production this year due to the global semiconductor shortage. Semiconductor chips, widely used in smartphones, computers, and other electronic devices, are especially important to NIO, a maker of premium electric vehicles . NIO's production stoppage in late March had little impact on the company's record ve","content":"<p>Focus on NIO vehicle deliveries</p>\n<p><b>KEY TAKEAWAYS</b></p>\n<ul>\n <li>Analysts estimate earnings per ADS of -0.72 yuan vs. -1.66 yuan in Q1 FY 2020.</li>\n <li>Vehicle deliveries, already announced, rose dramatically YOY.</li>\n <li>Revenue is expected to soar on expanding vehicle sales.</li>\n</ul>\n<p>NIO Inc. (NIO), like many other automakers, was forced to halt production this year due to the global semiconductor shortage. Semiconductor chips, widely used in smartphones, computers, and other electronic devices, are especially important to NIO, a maker of premium electric vehicles (EVs). NIO's production stoppage in late March had little impact on the company's record vehicle deliveries in Q1, but it could affect future production numbers.</p>\n<p>Investors will focus on how these forces affect NIO's immediate results, as well as its financial outlook, when the company reports earnings on April 29, 2021 for Q1 FY 2021.Analysts are expecting the company's loss per American depositary share (ADS) to narrow significantly as revenue expands at a rapid pace.</p>\n<p>Vehicle deliveries are another key metric investors watch in order to gauge the company's productive capacity. NIO already reported vehicle deliveries for the first quarter earlier this month, achieving a new quarterly record despite total deliveries coming in slightly below expectations.</p>\n<p>Shares of NIO have dramatically outperformed the broader market over the past year. But after reaching all-time highs earlier this year, the stock has fallen considerably and has been trading mostly sideways since early March. NIO's shares have provided investors with an astronomic total return of 1,171.9% over the past year, well above the S&amp;P 500's total return of 45.5%.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a11e1a915810ccbc7f07ec2adf16865b\" tg-width=\"3004\" tg-height=\"1798\"><span>Source: TradingView.</span></p>\n<p><b>NIO Earnings History</b></p>\n<p>The stock, which had been gathering downward momentum after peaking around mid-February, plunged following NIO's&nbsp;Q4 FY 2020 earnings&nbsp;report released at the beginning of March. The company reported a much larger loss per ADS than analysts expected and revenue also missed estimates. However, NIO's loss narrowed considerably compared to the year-ago quarter and revenue was still up 133.2%.The company was optimistic about its performance, noting that its&nbsp;gross margin&nbsp;rose to 17.2% compared to negative 8.9% in the year-ago quarter.</p>\n<p>In Q3 FY 2020, NIO posted a loss per ADS of 0.98 yuan ($0.15 as of the CNY/USD exchange rate on April 27, 2021).It was the smallest loss in at least 11 quarters. Revenue rose 146.4%, maintaining the pace of growth achieved in the second quarter.NIO said it delivered a record number of vehicles and saw improvements in its average selling price. The company also said that it was the second straight quarter of positive cash flow from operating activities.</p>\n<p>Analysts expect continued improvement in NIO's financial results in Q1 FY 2021. While NIO is still expected to post another loss per ADS, it is estimated to be the lowest in at least 14 quarters. Revenue for the quarter is forecast to rise 446.1%, which would be the fastest pace since Q2 FY 2019. For full-year FY 2021, analysts are currently expecting NIO to achieve a loss of 2.72 yuan per ADS, which would be the smallest loss in at least five years. Revenue is expected to rise 109.7%, a faster pace than in each of the last two years.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d412a9c0aea28621f713f5afbfba444c\" tg-width=\"885\" tg-height=\"352\"><span>Source: Visible Alpha; NIO Inc.</span></p>\n<p><b>The Key Metric</b></p>\n<p>As mentioned above, investors are also watching the number of vehicles NIO delivers each quarter. NIO generates some revenue from various services it provides, but the majority of revenue is derived from vehicle sales.Currently, the company makes deliveries of three types of vehicles: the ES8, the company's 6-seater and 7-seater flagship premium smart electric SUV; the ES6, the company’s 5-seater high-performance premium smart electric SUV; and the EC6, the company’s 5-seater premium electric coupe SUV.The number of vehicle deliveries provides an indication of the demand for NIO's vehicles as well as the company's ability to scale production.</p>\n<p>NIO has significantly ramped up its production over the past few years. The company delivered 11,350 vehicles in FY 2018. In FY 2020, it had nearly quadrupled that figure, delivering 43,730 vehicles. Despite a slowdown in Q1 FY 2020 amid the COVID-19 pandemic, NIO quickly made up for the Q1 drop in deliveries with a 190.8% year-over-year increase in Q2 FY 2020. Total vehicle delivery growth decelerated to 154.3% in Q3 and then to 111.0% in Q4. However, vehicle deliveries rose 423.0% in Q1 FY 2021, hitting a new quarterly record, as mentioned above. For full-year FY 2021, analysts are forecasting NIO to deliver 88,280 vehicles, which would be more than double last year's total deliveries. However, NIO warned investors in early March that the global chip shortage is likely to cut its production capacity, at least in the second quarter.</p>","source":"lsy1606203311635","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>NIO Q1 2021 Earnings Report Preview: What to Look For</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nNIO Q1 2021 Earnings Report Preview: What to Look For\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-04-29 11:08 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.investopedia.com/nio-q1-2021-earnings-report-preview-5180991><strong>InvestoPedia</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Focus on NIO vehicle deliveries\nKEY TAKEAWAYS\n\nAnalysts estimate earnings per ADS of -0.72 yuan vs. -1.66 yuan in Q1 FY 2020.\nVehicle deliveries, already announced, rose dramatically YOY.\nRevenue is ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.investopedia.com/nio-q1-2021-earnings-report-preview-5180991\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"NIO":"蔚来"},"source_url":"https://www.investopedia.com/nio-q1-2021-earnings-report-preview-5180991","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1183966356","content_text":"Focus on NIO vehicle deliveries\nKEY TAKEAWAYS\n\nAnalysts estimate earnings per ADS of -0.72 yuan vs. -1.66 yuan in Q1 FY 2020.\nVehicle deliveries, already announced, rose dramatically YOY.\nRevenue is expected to soar on expanding vehicle sales.\n\nNIO Inc. (NIO), like many other automakers, was forced to halt production this year due to the global semiconductor shortage. Semiconductor chips, widely used in smartphones, computers, and other electronic devices, are especially important to NIO, a maker of premium electric vehicles (EVs). NIO's production stoppage in late March had little impact on the company's record vehicle deliveries in Q1, but it could affect future production numbers.\nInvestors will focus on how these forces affect NIO's immediate results, as well as its financial outlook, when the company reports earnings on April 29, 2021 for Q1 FY 2021.Analysts are expecting the company's loss per American depositary share (ADS) to narrow significantly as revenue expands at a rapid pace.\nVehicle deliveries are another key metric investors watch in order to gauge the company's productive capacity. NIO already reported vehicle deliveries for the first quarter earlier this month, achieving a new quarterly record despite total deliveries coming in slightly below expectations.\nShares of NIO have dramatically outperformed the broader market over the past year. But after reaching all-time highs earlier this year, the stock has fallen considerably and has been trading mostly sideways since early March. NIO's shares have provided investors with an astronomic total return of 1,171.9% over the past year, well above the S&P 500's total return of 45.5%.\nSource: TradingView.\nNIO Earnings History\nThe stock, which had been gathering downward momentum after peaking around mid-February, plunged following NIO's Q4 FY 2020 earnings report released at the beginning of March. The company reported a much larger loss per ADS than analysts expected and revenue also missed estimates. However, NIO's loss narrowed considerably compared to the year-ago quarter and revenue was still up 133.2%.The company was optimistic about its performance, noting that its gross margin rose to 17.2% compared to negative 8.9% in the year-ago quarter.\nIn Q3 FY 2020, NIO posted a loss per ADS of 0.98 yuan ($0.15 as of the CNY/USD exchange rate on April 27, 2021).It was the smallest loss in at least 11 quarters. Revenue rose 146.4%, maintaining the pace of growth achieved in the second quarter.NIO said it delivered a record number of vehicles and saw improvements in its average selling price. The company also said that it was the second straight quarter of positive cash flow from operating activities.\nAnalysts expect continued improvement in NIO's financial results in Q1 FY 2021. While NIO is still expected to post another loss per ADS, it is estimated to be the lowest in at least 14 quarters. Revenue for the quarter is forecast to rise 446.1%, which would be the fastest pace since Q2 FY 2019. For full-year FY 2021, analysts are currently expecting NIO to achieve a loss of 2.72 yuan per ADS, which would be the smallest loss in at least five years. Revenue is expected to rise 109.7%, a faster pace than in each of the last two years.\nSource: Visible Alpha; NIO Inc.\nThe Key Metric\nAs mentioned above, investors are also watching the number of vehicles NIO delivers each quarter. NIO generates some revenue from various services it provides, but the majority of revenue is derived from vehicle sales.Currently, the company makes deliveries of three types of vehicles: the ES8, the company's 6-seater and 7-seater flagship premium smart electric SUV; the ES6, the company’s 5-seater high-performance premium smart electric SUV; and the EC6, the company’s 5-seater premium electric coupe SUV.The number of vehicle deliveries provides an indication of the demand for NIO's vehicles as well as the company's ability to scale production.\nNIO has significantly ramped up its production over the past few years. The company delivered 11,350 vehicles in FY 2018. In FY 2020, it had nearly quadrupled that figure, delivering 43,730 vehicles. Despite a slowdown in Q1 FY 2020 amid the COVID-19 pandemic, NIO quickly made up for the Q1 drop in deliveries with a 190.8% year-over-year increase in Q2 FY 2020. Total vehicle delivery growth decelerated to 154.3% in Q3 and then to 111.0% in Q4. However, vehicle deliveries rose 423.0% in Q1 FY 2021, hitting a new quarterly record, as mentioned above. For full-year FY 2021, analysts are forecasting NIO to deliver 88,280 vehicles, which would be more than double last year's total deliveries. However, NIO warned investors in early March that the global chip shortage is likely to cut its production capacity, at least in the second quarter.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":214,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}