Miaw的个人主页 - 老虎社区

Miaw

Miaw

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584关注

18粉丝

3主题

0勋章

2022-01-14

So fast up already

美股开盘特斯拉跌超1% 英伟达跌近2%

2021-10-21

Why

大举减持阿里！超长期投资巨头最新持仓来了

2021-10-19

Finally

【异动】热门中概股集体拉升，爱奇艺涨近11%

2021-10-19

Ding ding

“三桶油”亏损保供，今冬气荒概率不大

2021-10-18

OK mah?

“盈利信念”报告出炉！看大摩如何在财报季指点迷津

2021-09-15

Yeah

提醒：中秋节休市安排来了！港股22日休市

2021-09-01

啥意思

美国8月Markit制造业PMI终值创4月份以来新低

2021-08-25

啥

私募大佬但斌为何输给了“时间的玫瑰”？

2021-08-25

酱开心，你买了吗

药明生物上半年营收44.1亿，净利润18.4亿

2021-08-22

等呗

抱歉，原内容已删除

2021-08-22

啥玩意

抱歉，原内容已删除

2021-08-20

[得意]

抱歉，原内容已删除

2021-07-15

分手吧

8年对抗不如罚单8天！阿里腾讯真和解吗？

2021-07-08

Aiyo

抱歉，原内容已删除

2021-07-05

且行且珍惜[开心]

抱歉，原内容已删除

2021-07-02

[看涨] [看跌]

【异动】AMC直线跳水！做空机构：我们正在做空

2021-06-28

What happen to nio

【异动】造车新势力彻底爆发，蔚来汽车涨9%

2021-06-27

What's VC stand for

用VC的长线思维买基金

2021-06-23

[强]

美国6月Markit制造业PMI创纪录，服务业PMI不及预期

2021-06-21

有吗？

抱歉，原内容已删除

去老虎APP查看更多动态

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}\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; 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Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://k.sinaimg.cn/n/tech/transform/667/w400h267/20220114/1325-554542d550254fbd6810a3f2116639f0.jpg/w120h90l50t144a.jpg","relate_stocks":{"BK4554":"元宇宙及AR概念","BK4549":"软银资本持仓","BK4532":"文艺复兴科技持仓","NVDA":"英伟达","BK4099":"汽车制造商","BK4503":"景林资产持仓","BK4548":"巴美列捷福持仓","BK4551":"寇图资本持仓","TSLA":"特斯拉","BK4567":"ESG概念","BK4529":"IDC概念","BK4555":"新能源车","BK4550":"红杉资本持仓","BK4527":"明星科技股","BK4534":"瑞士信贷持仓","BK4543":"AI","BK4533":"AQR资本管理(全球第二大对冲基金)","BK4141":"半导体产品"},"source_url":"https://tech.sina.cn/it/2022-01-14/detail-ikyamrmz5248612.d.html?vt=4","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2203271777","content_text":"新浪科技讯 1月14日晚间消息，美股三大指数集体低开，道指跌0.72%，纳指跌0.67%，标普500指数跌0.64%。美股开盘特斯拉开盘跌超1%，英伟达跌近2%。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1181,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":853523287,"gmtCreate":1634825471199,"gmtModify":1634825860476,"author":{"id":"3569028586400878","authorId":"3569028586400878","name":"Miaw","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bd318611f16b0eb6de098c8b733c85fd","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3569028586400878","idStr":"3569028586400878"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Why","listText":"Why","text":"Why","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/853523287","repostId":"2177432754","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2177432754","pubTimestamp":1634780201,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2177432754?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-10-21 09:36","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"大举减持阿里！超长期投资巨头最新持仓来了","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2177432754","media":"中国基金报","summary":"英国超长期限投资巨头柏基日前向美国证监会提交13F报告，报告显示，柏基大幅度减持了“心头好”阿里巴巴ADR。此次，柏基提交的是3季度末的美股持仓报告。狂砍阿里巴巴ADR 61%令人倍感意外的是，3季度柏基大幅度减持阿里巴巴ADR，减持幅度高达61%。同期增持美团和再鼎医药不过，柏基并非无选择地减持互联网公司。港交所披露信息显示，7月28日，柏基显著增持了美团，斥资约19亿港元。投资者对长期限投资的接受度令他们惊喜。","content":"<div>\n<p>英国超长期限投资巨头柏基日前向美国证监会（SEC）提交13F报告，报告显示，柏基大幅度减持了“心头好”阿里巴巴ADR。中概股中，B站哔哩哔哩也遭减持。不过，同期的港股信息披露显示，柏基在加仓美团和再鼎医药。\n美国证监会要求，管理他人资产规模超过1亿美元的投资机构需在每个季度末结束后45天内向美国证监会提交上一季末美股持仓报告。此次，柏基提交的是3季度末的美股持仓报告。\n狂砍阿里巴巴ADR 61%\n...</p>\n\n<a href=\"http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN202110210806537d55ac6f&s=b\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n","source":"tencent","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>大举减持阿里！超长期投资巨头最新持仓来了 </title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n大举减持阿里！超长期投资巨头最新持仓来了 \n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-10-21 09:36 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN202110210806537d55ac6f&s=b><strong>中国基金报</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>英国超长期限投资巨头柏基日前向美国证监会（SEC）提交13F报告，报告显示，柏基大幅度减持了“心头好”阿里巴巴ADR。中概股中，B站哔哩哔哩也遭减持。不过，同期的港股信息披露显示，柏基在加仓美团和再鼎医药。\n美国证监会要求，管理他人资产规模超过1亿美元的投资机构需在每个季度末结束后45天内向美国证监会提交上一季末美股持仓报告。此次，柏基提交的是3季度末的美股持仓报告。\n狂砍阿里巴巴ADR 61%\n...</p>\n\n<a href=\"http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN202110210806537d55ac6f&s=b\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e62f8ab97654b9d4f235a7b85cd8647e","relate_stocks":{"09988":"阿里巴巴-W","BABA":"阿里巴巴"},"source_url":"http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN202110210806537d55ac6f&s=b","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/9a95c1376e76363c1401fee7d3717173","article_id":"2177432754","content_text":"英国超长期限投资巨头柏基日前向美国证监会（SEC）提交13F报告，报告显示，柏基大幅度减持了“心头好”阿里巴巴ADR。中概股中，B站哔哩哔哩也遭减持。不过，同期的港股信息披露显示，柏基在加仓美团和再鼎医药。\n美国证监会要求，管理他人资产规模超过1亿美元的投资机构需在每个季度末结束后45天内向美国证监会提交上一季末美股持仓报告。此次，柏基提交的是3季度末的美股持仓报告。\n狂砍阿里巴巴ADR 61%\n令人倍感意外的是，3季度柏基大幅度减持阿里巴巴ADR，减持幅度高达61%。作为最懂互联网、科技板块的资管巨头，“柏基”此举令不少人感到意外。今年早些时候，在客户活动中，被问及怎么看中国的互联网监管，柏基合伙人James Anderson表示在与阿里的高管沟通了解情况。\n不过，3季度末的美股持仓数据显示，柏基砍仓阿里巴巴ADR。\n由于13F报告只显示美股持仓数据，目前还不知道柏基是不是将ADR转换成了港股。这并未没有可能。\n此前13F报告显示，贝莱德持仓中的阿里巴巴大幅降低。不过，事后贝莱德澄清是由于跟踪指数做了调整，贝莱德旗下被动产品跟随指数将美股转换成了港股。但是由于13F报告只显示美股不显示港股，因为13F的数据显示出来的迹象阿里巴巴持仓大幅降低。\n记者20日下午致电柏基（上海），柏基方面表示由于时差，可能需要一些时间才能收到反馈。截至截稿，记者尚未收到来自柏基的反馈。\n\n3季度，柏基减持的部分股票 来源：Whalewisdom\n除了阿里巴巴ADR，柏基还减持了教育网站好未来，B站哔哩哔哩和网易。\n如果，柏基是减持而不是将ADR转化成了阿里巴巴港股，那么投资者应该信柏基还是芒格？芒格近期大手笔加仓阿里巴巴。作为价值投资的旗帜标杆，芒格拥趸无数。但是在科技互联网领域，柏基所取得的收益同样令人印象深刻。陪跑特斯拉7年，在特斯拉上赚得上千亿元，是近年来“惊艳”投资圈的案例。\n柏基是知名的“长期资本”“耐心资本”，因此也深得企业的喜爱。不少，创业公司在早期融资时首先会想到它。它也是较早介入蔚来汽车的资产管理机构。\n3季度末柏基的美股持仓前20大重仓股\n\n截至3季度末，柏基的前20大重仓股。以科技，医疗等为主。注：数据来源 美国证监会和美国持仓信息网站whalewisdom。“%”意味着，增减持幅度小于1%。\n同期增持美团和再鼎医药\n不过，柏基并非无选择地减持互联网公司。港交所披露信息显示，7月28日，柏基显著增持了美团，斥资约19亿港元。\n\n柏基增持美团相关信息披露 来源：港交所\n美团最近股价走势\n\n美团今年春节后一路下挫，从高点460元跌到了293.8元。柏基选择在7月底增持，在当时引起了广泛关注，也一定程度上提振了投资者对于美团类互联网公司的信心。\n除了互联网公司，医疗健康也是柏基布局中国的重点。此次，柏基显著加仓了一只医疗健康类股票再鼎医药。三季度末柏基持有490万股再鼎医药，期间加仓约21%。2020年9月再鼎医药回港股上市。此外，港交所信息披露显示，7月2日，柏基加仓了再鼎医药11万股。这是一家创新型生物制药公司，聚焦癌症、自体免疫及感染性疾病领域的创新药物。它的总部位于上海，成立于2014年。再鼎医药也是众多外资机构持仓股票。\n加码中国布局\n2020年9月，柏基投资在上海设立证券私募管理人公司，并发行了一只私募基金。据柏基方面介绍，当时基金募集的情况超出预期。投资者对长期限投资的接受度令他们惊喜。2021年3月 柏基以境内有限合伙设立了向境内投资者募集投向海外市场的产品（QDLP产品）。设立上海公司以来，柏基在本地的存在感提升，而柏基合伙人James Anderson认为本地公司则有助于进一步提升他们对本地公司的研究水平。因为与公司的沟通可以更深了。\n\n柏基旗下证券私募在中国证券投资基金业网站的备案信息。在私募机构，柏基的注册资本高达5亿元，实缴资本也有1.25亿元。目前在管产品规模在0-5亿元之间。\n柏基非常关注前沿科技，对于看好的公司，它往往会选择早下手，长期持有。投资风格，兼具二级市场投资者和一级市场投资者特点。\n这样一家超长期限公司是如何考察公司的？据了解，柏基有一组10个问题组成的选股策略，以考察公司成长性：\n问题1：未来五年里，销售额是否有至少翻倍的空间？\n问题2：十年或更久以后该公司会如何？\n问题3：企业的竞争优势是什么？\n问题4：公司的企业文化是否超群？面对外部环境是否具有适应性？\n问题5：用户为何喜欢该公司？公司如何对社会做出贡献？\n问题6：公司是否为股东带来出色的回报？\n问题7：股东回报将上升还是下降？\n问题8：公司如何配置资本？\n问题9：如何能获得五倍于现在的估值，甚至更多？\n问题10：为何市场暂时还未能反映以上判断？\n如今，摆在投资者面前的问题是，柏基究竟是减持还是转换成为港股。无数关注阿里巴巴的投资者来说，这是一个重要的问题。\n毕竟在3季度，大量的投资者涌入互联网ETF，抄底阿里巴巴等互联网巨头。数据显示，美国最大的中国股票ETF KWEB，3季度实现净流入42亿美元，超过200亿元人民币。\n\nKWEB三季度资金净流入情况来源：ETF.COM\n这只ETF前三大重仓股是腾讯、美团、阿里巴巴。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1016,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":859941190,"gmtCreate":1634652498241,"gmtModify":1634652893888,"author":{"id":"3569028586400878","authorId":"3569028586400878","name":"Miaw","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bd318611f16b0eb6de098c8b733c85fd","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3569028586400878","idStr":"3569028586400878"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Finally","listText":"Finally","text":"Finally","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/859941190","repostId":"1106598784","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1106598784","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据，旨在帮助投资者理解世界，做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1634651905,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1106598784?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-10-19 21:58","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"【异动】热门中概股集体拉升，爱奇艺涨近11%","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1106598784","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"10月19日，热门中概股集体拉升，爱奇艺涨近11%，哔哩哔哩涨超7%，唯品会涨超6%，阿里巴巴涨3.7%，京东涨超3%。","content":"<p>10月19日，热门中概股集体拉升，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/IQ\">爱奇艺</a>涨近11%，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BILI\">哔哩哔哩</a>涨超7%，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/VIPS\">唯品会</a>涨超6%，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BABA\">阿里巴巴</a>涨3.7%，京东涨超3%。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/368f2fa2c2b02da3dace52bb5450279a\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" 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}\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 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21:58</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>10月19日，热门中概股集体拉升，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/IQ\">爱奇艺</a>涨近11%，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BILI\">哔哩哔哩</a>涨超7%，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/VIPS\">唯品会</a>涨超6%，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BABA\">阿里巴巴</a>涨3.7%，京东涨超3%。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/368f2fa2c2b02da3dace52bb5450279a\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bd3ac286c2233d10a592ba6c388667fb","relate_stocks":{"IQ":"爱奇艺","BABA":"阿里巴巴","BILI":"哔哩哔哩","VIPS":"唯品会"},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1106598784","content_text":"10月19日，热门中概股集体拉升，爱奇艺涨近11%，哔哩哔哩涨超7%，唯品会涨超6%，阿里巴巴涨3.7%，京东涨超3%。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1003,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":859934649,"gmtCreate":1634649896710,"gmtModify":1634649897065,"author":{"id":"3569028586400878","authorId":"3569028586400878","name":"Miaw","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bd318611f16b0eb6de098c8b733c85fd","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3569028586400878","idStr":"3569028586400878"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Ding ding","listText":"Ding ding","text":"Ding ding","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/859934649","repostId":"1150554651","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1150554651","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"研讨公司成败，探究行业兴衰，推动阳光商业。由《财经》公司产业报道团队创建，“媒体+智库”双轮驱动的商业新媒体平台","home_visible":1,"media_name":"财经十一人","id":"1099700195","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2c6ac2a9dafc44d0a5e8c2ea84dfb4e2"},"pubTimestamp":1634647163,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1150554651?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-10-19 20:39","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"“三桶油”亏损保供，今冬气荒概率不大","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1150554651","media":"财经十一人","summary":"若今冬明春出现极寒天气，短期的局部供需缺口仍难避免\n\n天然气现在是全球最抢手的资源。\n一场本可避免的欧洲气荒，导致国际液化天然气（LNG）价格创下近十年的新高——这警醒了即将进入供暖季的中国。\n据《财","content":"<div>\n<p>若今冬明春出现极寒天气，短期的局部供需缺口仍难避免\n\n天然气现在是全球最抢手的资源。\n一场本可避免的欧洲气荒，导致国际液化天然气（LNG）价格创下近十年的新高——这警醒了即将进入供暖季的中国。\n据《财经》了记者解，中国三大油气央企（中石油、中石化、中海油）今年提早到二季度就开始制定今冬明春的保供计划，储气量将超历史纪录；同时，国产气、进口管道气和LNG也将在今冬有所增长。\n欧洲本轮气荒主要源于其...</p>\n\n<a href=\"None\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>“三桶油”亏损保供，今冬气荒概率不大</title>\n<style 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margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n“三桶油”亏损保供，今冬气荒概率不大\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n2021-10-19 20:39 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<strong>财经十一人</strong>\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>若今冬明春出现极寒天气，短期的局部供需缺口仍难避免\n\n天然气现在是全球最抢手的资源。\n一场本可避免的欧洲气荒，导致国际液化天然气（LNG）价格创下近十年的新高——这警醒了即将进入供暖季的中国。\n据《财经》了记者解，中国三大油气央企（中石油、中石化、中海油）今年提早到二季度就开始制定今冬明春的保供计划，储气量将超历史纪录；同时，国产气、进口管道气和LNG也将在今冬有所增长。\n欧洲本轮气荒主要源于其...</p>\n\n<a href=\"None\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3faadc006e67e6ac130a7b171f263b4d","relate_stocks":{"601857":"中国石油"},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1150554651","content_text":"若今冬明春出现极寒天气，短期的局部供需缺口仍难避免\n\n天然气现在是全球最抢手的资源。\n一场本可避免的欧洲气荒，导致国际液化天然气（LNG）价格创下近十年的新高——这警醒了即将进入供暖季的中国。\n据《财经》了记者解，中国三大油气央企（中石油、中石化、中海油）今年提早到二季度就开始制定今冬明春的保供计划，储气量将超历史纪录；同时，国产气、进口管道气和LNG也将在今冬有所增长。\n欧洲本轮气荒主要源于其前期储气量太低，且减少了长协天然气采购。多位业内人士对《财经》记者表示，中国各相关方已做好了充分的冬供准备，应该不会出现类似欧洲的气荒。但是，如果今冬明春出现极寒天气，短期的局部供需缺口仍然难以避免。\n高攀的国际LNG价格让中国企业承受了更高的成本。尤其是对刚剥离管网资产的三大油气央企来说，今年四季度的天然气业务大概率出现亏损。\n从更宏观的层面看，能源转型领头羊欧洲此次发生的气荒显示，全球能源转型已到拐点。前两年盛行的“天然气供应过剩、价格将长期偏低”观点已被业界推翻。全球天然气市场将进入新的发展周期，中国天然气企业已开始重新青睐LNG长约协议。\n01、准备充分，但气荒概率仍要看天\n近一个月来，全球三大天然气基准价格刷新了近几年的纪录：美国纽约商品交易所Henry Hub天然气期货价格创7年来新高；欧洲基准--荷兰所有权转让中心(TTF)天然气合约交易价格创历史记录，自年初以来最高涨超6倍；日韩基准价（JKM）刷新2009年以来最高值。\n价格飙升的主因是欧洲临时抢气。天然气是欧洲当前发电和取暖的主力能源，今年以来，欧洲天然气库存只有去年同期的80%左右，亦低于过去五年的平均的库存。一旦气温下降，欧洲只能更多地买入国际LNG现货，遂推高了价格。\n图1：今年欧洲天然气库存偏低\n\n中国的采暖也越来越依赖天然气，相关方今年都提前为采暖期的用气高峰做准备——主要包括增加天然气储备和进口合同量两大路径。\n9月下旬开始，中国西北、东北地区天气转冷，部分地区已开始供暖，更大面积的供暖则将在11月到来。与往年从10月中下旬开始储气不同，今年各方从9月份就开始储气。例如，中石油大港油田储气库群到10月8日已累计注气20.14亿立方米，提前25天超额完成年度注气计划，为京津冀今冬调峰用气做准备。\n进口LNG的接收站也已做好了增加供应的计划。中石油华东地区某LNG接收站人士告诉《财经》记者，今年其所在项目预计将比去年同期增加10%-20%的供应量，增量包括购买现货LNG也包括增加长协进口量，总供应量将超历史记录。\n图2：中国近五个采暖季的天然气需求情况\n\n国家发改委和各地主管部门均加大了对冬供储备的监管力度。9月底，国家发改委前往吉林、黑龙江、河北等地督查天然气储备调峰设施建设情况，参与该督查行动的业内人士对《财经》记者表示，2021年的调峰保供能力明显增强。截至2021年10月底，全国已经实现应急储气量约100亿立方米，超过城市燃气企业承担任务量的82%，剩余任务预计将在2021年年底前完成。\n增加冬供保障一方面是增加储运能力，另一方面是提高国产气、进口气的量。天然气咨询公司来佰特数据统计显示，今年以来，全国新增的储气库容量为18亿立方米；进口LNG接收站的新增接卸能力为500万吨/年。另据中金公司研究部预计，今年采暖季期间，中国国产气可同比增加约70亿立方米，进口管道气可增加30亿立方米。\n目前，监管部门对采暖季的供应保障已较有信心。国家发展改革委党组成员、秘书长赵辰昕10月13日回答记者提问时说，截至目前，已经落实供暖季保供资源量1744亿立方米，还在进一步组织企业挖掘增产增供潜力。在采暖季期间，国内自产气、管道气和进口LNG，加上储气设施必要时的用气，全国储气量可超270亿立方米，能够满足高峰期的用气需要。\n市场机构测算认为，在不出现极端寒冷天气的情况下，今冬明春不会出现用气缺口。中金公司发布的研报称，预计今冬明春中国的天然气表观消费量将增长10% 至1706亿立方米。目前国内天然气上游企业锁定的气源基本可满足本轮采暖季的消费。今冬明春中国国内天然气市场出现气荒的可能性较小。\n也有市场人士认为，即使不出现极寒天气，采暖季的最高需求仍有少量缺口。不愿具名的业内人士表示，据其测算，本轮采暖季里全国可供应的最大气量为13.6亿立方米/日，预计最高需求量可达14亿立方米/日，仍有缺口。\n多位接受《财经》记者采访的业内人士均认为，如果国内出现低于往常的极寒天气，局部、短期的气荒仍然不可避免。“天然气仍处于靠天吃饭的状态”。\n此外，中亚、中俄进口管道气供应的稳定性还存在一定风险。中国石油大学(北京)俄罗斯中亚研究中心常务副主任刘乾对《财经》记者说，中亚天然气管道此前多次在采暖季临时降低输气量，今年是否会再次减量存在不确定性。目前俄罗斯输往中国的管道气仍在稳定增加，预计降低供应的可能性不大。但俄罗斯的天然气同时销售到欧洲和中国，未来的稳定性也有待观察。\n02、成本剧增，“三桶油”陷入亏损\n由于中国天然气价格未完全市场化，且采暖季增加的需求主要是价格被管制的居民用气，因此，天然气企业今冬将大概率陷入亏损。\n天然气上游企业以“三桶油”（中石油、中石化和中海油）为主，他们将承担大部分的亏损，下游企业承担少部分。\n国产气的成本相对较低，天然气企业亏损的压力主要来自进口气。进口气分为管道气和LNG，前者基本都是长协，后者包括长协和现货两种交易。\n长协即长约协议，买卖双方依据“照付不议”（指用户若未达约定用气量，仍须按约定量付款；若供气方未达到约定供应量，则需对用户做出补偿）原则签订为期20年左右的供需协议。这种协议采用与油价挂钩的价格公式，即气价=斜率*油价+常数。现货交易主要参照全球三大天然气标杆价格，随行就市。\n今年以来，纽约和伦敦的两大国际原油期货价格涨幅均超过了60%，长协进口的LNG价格随之上涨。欧洲气荒使得长协LNG的价格基数被抬升，目前长协的斜率已经超过12%，去年最高为10%。也就是说，长协气价比油价涨得更快。\n而现货LNG价格比长协涨得更快。据赵辰昕介绍，当前国际市场LNG现货到岸价格达到9元/立方米左右，而各地门站价普遍在2元/立方米以下。中央油气企业为保民生用气承担了超过7元/立方米的亏损。\n整体来看，今年5月以来进口LNG的平均价格已超过去年同期。此后一路上扬，在7月超过了2019年的同期水平。天然气咨询公司来佰特数据统计显示，8月进口LNG的平均价达到3539元/吨，直逼2019年1月的最高点。\n图3：中国近三年进口LNG平均价格\n\n进口LNG在过去几年已成为中国采暖季补充天然气资源的主要渠道。公开资料显示，在今冬明春的采暖季里，国产气占比在57%左右，进口管道气占比在13%左右，进口LNG占比30%左右。\n据此计算，“三桶油”在这个采暖季的亏损将达到数百亿元。中金公司发表的研报显示，今年三季度进口现货LNG的平均到岸价约19美元/MMbtu（约合4.2元/立方米），叠加接卸、气化和注采等成本约1.3元/立方米，预计今冬上游企业为保供储备天然气的成本平均不低于5.5元/立方米。即使上游企业向下游传导一部分成本，比如达到沿海发达省份门站基准价上浮60%的销售价格，上游企业进口现货LNG仍将亏损约2.3元/立方米。\n上述研报预计，今冬明春中国需采购186亿立方米的LNG现货。也就是说，“三桶油”仅采购现货LNG的亏损总额可能就将达到约428亿元。目前，“三桶油”正在与各城市燃气企业商讨签订今冬明春的供气合同，争取向下游企业传递更多的采购成本。\n一般情况下，“三桶油”同比去年新增的供气量，即所谓的计划外用气量，价格同比更高。某大型城市燃气公司管理层人士对《财经》记者说，去年中石油对计划外用气量价格上涨了14%，今年还没确定，但涨幅肯定更大。\n整体来说，“三桶油”向下游分摊高价气成本只能覆盖很少一部分，“今冬中石油集团的天然气业务陷入亏损是肯定的了。”来自中石油集团的某资深研究人士对《财经》记者说。\n中石油发布的消息称，该公司今冬明春供应的天然气将突破千亿立方米，同比增加8.4%，创历史新高。国产气量、进口气量、储气库采气量等均实现较大幅度增长，增幅分别达3.3%、17%、16.3%。\n2020年中石油集团销售进口天然气亏损了141.59亿元，2019年的亏损额为307.1亿元。\n03、转型临拐点，天然气产业进入新周期\n此次欧洲气荒让人们进一步认清了天然气在能源转型中的地位。业内人士认为，随着能源转型步入新阶段，天然气产业也将进入新的发展周期。\n全球迄今共发生过三次石油危机，尚未发生过天然气危机。如今，全球天然气危机似乎近在眼前。\n2021年以来，全球大宗商品齐涨价，涨幅最大的当属天然气。近期国际LNG现货价格折换成石油，已经超过200美元/桶，同期布伦特原油期货价格约为80美元/桶。这应该是天然气价格首次大幅度地超过油价。\n东帆石能源咨询公司董事长陈卫东表示，石油与天然气价格的背离，是能源转型从量变到质量的标志，也是能源转型出现拐点的信号，说明天然气在能源供应中的地位正在快速提升。\n以前，全球能源版图以石油为中心，现在正在转向以电力为中心，天然气和可再生能源正成为发电的主力电源。\n从欧洲的情况看，电力市场中可再生能源的比例正在快速增加。由于可再生能源波动性大，天然气发电是最好的调峰电源。同时，天然气发电比煤电的碳排放量更低。因此，发电主力的重任就落到了天然气身上。在准备不足的情况下，欧洲气荒必定还会再次发生。\n据国家能源委员会专家咨询委员会委员、中化能源股份有限公司首席经济学家王能全统计，受新冠疫情的严重冲击，2020年世界石油天然气勘探开发支出下降了27%，是35年来降幅第二大的年份。这导致了2021年以来全球油气市场的供应紧张和价格不断上涨。\n降低勘探开发支出的主要是欧洲油气公司，中国和美国的油气公司转型更加谨慎，仍在持续加大油气勘探开发支出。中国的“三桶油”在坚定地实施“增储上产”战略，同时提升天然气产量占油气总产量的比重。\n不过，中美资源禀赋差异较大。美国页岩气资源丰富，已实现能源自给；中国的天然气对外依存度前些年持续升高，目前已接近50%。中国提出“碳达峰、碳中和”目标之后 ，天然气的发展将步入一个新的快速发展期。因此，如何更好地保障天然气进口量稳定、降低进口成本是当前以及中短期内的重要挑战。\n从国际天然气贸易的形势看，LNG贸易将逐渐成为主流。王能全表示，在此前天然气管道运输为主的时期，国际天然气价格区域分化明显。如今，以船舶运输为主的LNG贸易占比越来越大，天然气贸易如同石油贸易一样，正在形成全球性的交易市场。天然气价格也越来越全球化，越来越独立于石油。\n另一方面，由于前几年盛行“天然气将长期过剩”的观点，LNG现货贸易变得比长协更加活跃。步入新的快速发展期之后，更加稳定的长协LNG贸易预计将重新成为天然气公司进口的首选。\n9月29日，中海油与卡塔尔石油公司通过视频新签署为期15年、350万吨/年的长期LNG购销协议。该协议是近8年来国内企业签署的年合同量最高的长协LNG贸易合同，将于20201年1月开始执行。\n10月11日，民营天然气龙头企业新奥股份与美国切尼尔能源签署了长期LNG购销协议。从2022年7月1日起，切尼尔能源向新奥股份每年以离岸交付（FOB）方式供应约90万吨LNG，合同为期13年。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1287,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":850801283,"gmtCreate":1634568268351,"gmtModify":1634568269883,"author":{"id":"3569028586400878","authorId":"3569028586400878","name":"Miaw","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bd318611f16b0eb6de098c8b733c85fd","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3569028586400878","idStr":"3569028586400878"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"OK mah?&nbsp;","listText":"OK mah?&nbsp;","text":"OK mah?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/850801283","repostId":"1158008406","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1158008406","pubTimestamp":1634538834,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1158008406?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-10-18 14:33","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"“盈利信念”报告出炉！看大摩如何在财报季指点迷津","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1158008406","media":"智通财经网","summary":"第三季度财报季已经开始，但目前宏观层面上充满了不确定性，摩根士丹利发布了一份名为“盈利信念”的报告，该报告似乎打破了当前迷雾，并提供了该行预计将从报告中看到实质性变化的公司名单。\n大摩表示：“我们认为","content":"<p>第三季度财报季已经开始，但目前宏观层面上充满了不确定性，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MS\">摩根士丹利</a>发布了一份名为“盈利信念”的报告，该报告似乎打破了当前迷雾，并提供了该行预计将从报告中看到实质性变化的公司名单。</p>\n<p>大摩表示：“我们认为，企业无法转嫁定价、供应链风险、与高工资相关的利润率风险，以及商品消费趋势，将会对企业的盈利前景构成严重风险。”</p>\n<p>该公司表示，承认这些问题可能会导致分析师下调预期，随着周期中期过渡的完成，修正幅度应该会进一步减速。</p>\n<p>摩根士丹利认为，在过去五个季度，所有行业的每股收益都比正常水平高出至少5%，各公司很可能会像之前一样努力打破市场共识。</p>\n<p>与此同时，盈利广度减速将决定标普500指数是否会出现10%或20%的回调。</p>\n<p>在这种阴云密布的前景下，摩根士丹利挑选出了16家公司，预计这些公司的财报将影响股价走势(12家上涨，4家下跌)。</p>\n<p><b>金融领域</b></p>\n<p>金融类股在其预期上涨的股票中表现良好，包括Evercore投行(EVR.US)、Realty Income(O.US)、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SI\">Silvergate Capital</a>(SI.US)和sync Financial(SYF.US)。在Evercore的案例中，并购交易额达到了创纪录的水平，大摩认为该公司2022年早期数据会看涨，并预计其第三季度业绩将比普遍市场预期高出10%，但目前该股交易低于历史平均水平。Realty Income与同行相比表现不佳，正面临其自宣布VEREIT合并以来最重要的季度，摩根士丹利认为，市场的增长幅度(2%)远低于公司的预期(10%)。</p>\n<p>此外，大摩对Silvergate Capital第三季度的核心存款增长持保守态度，认为有可能出现上行，并预计数字货币计划将持续取得进展。而对于Synchrony来说，由于净息差提高，平均贷款较上季度增长2.6%，以及股东更快的获得资本回报，大摩从中看到了一股强劲的增长势头。</p>\n<p><b>科技领域</b></p>\n<p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MSFT\">微软</a>在公共云和协作等领域的增长势头强劲，预计该公司应该可以获得稳健的收益。大摩预计，2022财年微软的收入将增长14.2%。对于<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/QCOM\">高通</a>来说，预计会有较好的业绩。</p>\n<p>在通信服务报告的潜在上行趋势中，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/IRDM\">铱星通讯</a>正面临预期的创纪录净增长。大摩预计该公司本季度的收入将比普遍预期高出2-3%。<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LAMR\">拉马尔户外广告</a>预计营收将增长19.3%，由于其周期性和相对较高的利润率，该公司的业绩指引有望向上修正。</p>\n<p><b>医疗保健领域</b></p>\n<p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/HUM\">休曼纳</a>是潜在上涨的股票之一，由于市场对近期指导风险的担忧盖过了长期结构性增长，因此，在该股表现不佳的情况下很有可能反弹。</p>\n<p><b>消费品领域</b></p>\n<p>宝洁公司的有机销售应该会强劲增长，增幅约为3.1%，而此前的市场普遍预期是1.6%。</p>\n<p><b>工业领域</b></p>\n<p>图森未来应该会在未来三个月内提供关于CFIUS调查和Driver Out测试的最新信息，这两项结果均可能成为推高该股股价的催化剂。<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GWW\">美国固安捷</a>因其“有弹性的供应链和极高的短期定价权”，预计收益将超过预期，与同行相比，该股股价正处于10年来的相对低点。</p>\n<p><b>预计股价下跌的公司</b></p>\n<p>工业类股在四个潜在的股价下滑的公司中占了三个：摩根士丹利表示，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PNR\">滨特尔</a>应该会发布一个与预期一致的季度业绩，第四季度业绩指引也将低于市场共识。与同行相比，它的估值相对较高，而且面临着共同市场正在见顶的担忧。</p>\n<p>碳纤维价格上涨、土耳其和墨西哥的工厂由于新冠病例的增加而停工以及今年下半年风力市场的疲软，均有可能影响 TPI Composites(TPIC.US)，导致其股票表现不佳。此外，大摩仍然认为<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CAT\">卡特彼勒</a>(CAT.US)没有很好地校正利润率压力，同时预计该公司从之前疲软的销售趋势中的恢复程度较低。</p>\n<p>另一个潜在的下跌股是<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LUMN\">Lumen Technologies</a>，大摩预计该公司营收降幅为6%，将超过市场预期的4.9%，并预计由于推迟重返岗位和持续的市场压力，该公司面临下行风险。与此同时，在最近的会议中，并没有看到该企业需求出现实质性反弹的分析。</p>","source":"highlight_zhitongcaijin","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>“盈利信念”报告出炉！看大摩如何在财报季指点迷津</title>\n<style 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margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n“盈利信念”报告出炉！看大摩如何在财报季指点迷津\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-10-18 14:33 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/576310.html><strong>智通财经网</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>第三季度财报季已经开始，但目前宏观层面上充满了不确定性，摩根士丹利发布了一份名为“盈利信念”的报告，该报告似乎打破了当前迷雾，并提供了该行预计将从报告中看到实质性变化的公司名单。\n大摩表示：“我们认为，企业无法转嫁定价、供应链风险、与高工资相关的利润率风险，以及商品消费趋势，将会对企业的盈利前景构成严重风险。”\n该公司表示，承认这些问题可能会导致分析师下调预期，随着周期中期过渡的完成，修正幅度应该...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/576310.html\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5d8fb95e65f042f352c6313989391357","relate_stocks":{"MS":"摩根士丹利"},"source_url":"https://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/576310.html","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/6ca2dcdccfa2217fb20a0351f4efe814","article_id":"1158008406","content_text":"第三季度财报季已经开始，但目前宏观层面上充满了不确定性，摩根士丹利发布了一份名为“盈利信念”的报告，该报告似乎打破了当前迷雾，并提供了该行预计将从报告中看到实质性变化的公司名单。\n大摩表示：“我们认为，企业无法转嫁定价、供应链风险、与高工资相关的利润率风险，以及商品消费趋势，将会对企业的盈利前景构成严重风险。”\n该公司表示，承认这些问题可能会导致分析师下调预期，随着周期中期过渡的完成，修正幅度应该会进一步减速。\n摩根士丹利认为，在过去五个季度，所有行业的每股收益都比正常水平高出至少5%，各公司很可能会像之前一样努力打破市场共识。\n与此同时，盈利广度减速将决定标普500指数是否会出现10%或20%的回调。\n在这种阴云密布的前景下，摩根士丹利挑选出了16家公司，预计这些公司的财报将影响股价走势(12家上涨，4家下跌)。\n金融领域\n金融类股在其预期上涨的股票中表现良好，包括Evercore投行(EVR.US)、Realty Income(O.US)、Silvergate Capital(SI.US)和sync Financial(SYF.US)。在Evercore的案例中，并购交易额达到了创纪录的水平，大摩认为该公司2022年早期数据会看涨，并预计其第三季度业绩将比普遍市场预期高出10%，但目前该股交易低于历史平均水平。Realty Income与同行相比表现不佳，正面临其自宣布VEREIT合并以来最重要的季度，摩根士丹利认为，市场的增长幅度(2%)远低于公司的预期(10%)。\n此外，大摩对Silvergate Capital第三季度的核心存款增长持保守态度，认为有可能出现上行，并预计数字货币计划将持续取得进展。而对于Synchrony来说，由于净息差提高，平均贷款较上季度增长2.6%，以及股东更快的获得资本回报，大摩从中看到了一股强劲的增长势头。\n科技领域\n微软在公共云和协作等领域的增长势头强劲，预计该公司应该可以获得稳健的收益。大摩预计，2022财年微软的收入将增长14.2%。对于高通来说，预计会有较好的业绩。\n在通信服务报告的潜在上行趋势中，铱星通讯正面临预期的创纪录净增长。大摩预计该公司本季度的收入将比普遍预期高出2-3%。拉马尔户外广告预计营收将增长19.3%，由于其周期性和相对较高的利润率，该公司的业绩指引有望向上修正。\n医疗保健领域\n休曼纳是潜在上涨的股票之一，由于市场对近期指导风险的担忧盖过了长期结构性增长，因此，在该股表现不佳的情况下很有可能反弹。\n消费品领域\n宝洁公司的有机销售应该会强劲增长，增幅约为3.1%，而此前的市场普遍预期是1.6%。\n工业领域\n图森未来应该会在未来三个月内提供关于CFIUS调查和Driver Out测试的最新信息，这两项结果均可能成为推高该股股价的催化剂。美国固安捷因其“有弹性的供应链和极高的短期定价权”，预计收益将超过预期，与同行相比，该股股价正处于10年来的相对低点。\n预计股价下跌的公司\n工业类股在四个潜在的股价下滑的公司中占了三个：摩根士丹利表示，滨特尔应该会发布一个与预期一致的季度业绩，第四季度业绩指引也将低于市场共识。与同行相比，它的估值相对较高，而且面临着共同市场正在见顶的担忧。\n碳纤维价格上涨、土耳其和墨西哥的工厂由于新冠病例的增加而停工以及今年下半年风力市场的疲软，均有可能影响 TPI Composites(TPIC.US)，导致其股票表现不佳。此外，大摩仍然认为卡特彼勒(CAT.US)没有很好地校正利润率压力，同时预计该公司从之前疲软的销售趋势中的恢复程度较低。\n另一个潜在的下跌股是Lumen Technologies，大摩预计该公司营收降幅为6%，将超过市场预期的4.9%，并预计由于推迟重返岗位和持续的市场压力，该公司面临下行风险。与此同时，在最近的会议中，并没有看到该企业需求出现实质性反弹的分析。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":738,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":882468589,"gmtCreate":1631715333341,"gmtModify":1631889801812,"author":{"id":"3569028586400878","authorId":"3569028586400878","name":"Miaw","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bd318611f16b0eb6de098c8b733c85fd","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3569028586400878","idStr":"3569028586400878"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Yeah","listText":"Yeah","text":"Yeah","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/882468589","repostId":"1100031374","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1100031374","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据，旨在帮助投资者理解世界，做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1631587259,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1100031374?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-09-14 10:40","market":"sh","language":"zh","title":"提醒：中秋节休市安排来了！港股22日休市","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1100031374","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"2021年中秋节假期即将来临！各主要市场休市安排如下：港股：\n\n\n9月22日（周三）休市。9月23日（周四）起照常开市。\n\n\nA股：\n\n\n9月20日（周一）至9月21日（周二）休市。9月22日（周三）起照常开市。\n\n\n美股、英股、澳股、新加坡股市照常交易。\n\n\n沪股通和深股通：\n\n\n9月17日（周五）至9月22日（周三）关闭。9月23日（周四）起照常开通。\n\n\n港股通：\n\n\n9月16日（周四）至9月22日（周三）关闭。9月23日（周四）起照常开通。","content":"<p>2021年中秋节假期即将来临！各主要市场休市安排如下：<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a514042f0cc485274181ed3db4bcf541\" tg-width=\"1103\" tg-height=\"746\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><b>港股：</b></p>\n<p>9月22日（周三）休市。9月23日（周四）起照常开市。</p>\n<p><b>A股：</b></p>\n<p>9月20日（周一）至9月21日（周二）休市。9月22日（周三）起照常开市。</p>\n<p><b>美股、英股、澳股、新加坡股市照常交易。</b></p>\n<p><b>沪股通和深股通：</b></p>\n<p>9月17日（周五）至9月22日（周三）关闭。9月23日（周四）起照常开通。</p>\n<p><b>港股通：</b></p>\n<p>9月16日（周四）至9月22日（周三）关闭。9月23日（周四）起照常开通。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/75ca986d45037f1a0b113e295b82f3f9\" tg-width=\"2048\" tg-height=\"1311\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>提醒：中秋节休市安排来了！港股22日休市</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n提醒：中秋节休市安排来了！港股22日休市\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2021-09-14 10:40</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>2021年中秋节假期即将来临！各主要市场休市安排如下：<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a514042f0cc485274181ed3db4bcf541\" tg-width=\"1103\" tg-height=\"746\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><b>港股：</b></p>\n<p>9月22日（周三）休市。9月23日（周四）起照常开市。</p>\n<p><b>A股：</b></p>\n<p>9月20日（周一）至9月21日（周二）休市。9月22日（周三）起照常开市。</p>\n<p><b>美股、英股、澳股、新加坡股市照常交易。</b></p>\n<p><b>沪股通和深股通：</b></p>\n<p>9月17日（周五）至9月22日（周三）关闭。9月23日（周四）起照常开通。</p>\n<p><b>港股通：</b></p>\n<p>9月16日（周四）至9月22日（周三）关闭。9月23日（周四）起照常开通。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/75ca986d45037f1a0b113e295b82f3f9\" tg-width=\"2048\" tg-height=\"1311\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/75ca986d45037f1a0b113e295b82f3f9","relate_stocks":{},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1100031374","content_text":"2021年中秋节假期即将来临！各主要市场休市安排如下：港股：\n9月22日（周三）休市。9月23日（周四）起照常开市。\nA股：\n9月20日（周一）至9月21日（周二）休市。9月22日（周三）起照常开市。\n美股、英股、澳股、新加坡股市照常交易。\n沪股通和深股通：\n9月17日（周五）至9月22日（周三）关闭。9月23日（周四）起照常开通。\n港股通：\n9月16日（周四）至9月22日（周三）关闭。9月23日（周四）起照常开通。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":217,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":816249995,"gmtCreate":1630505122417,"gmtModify":1631889801822,"author":{"id":"3569028586400878","authorId":"3569028586400878","name":"Miaw","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bd318611f16b0eb6de098c8b733c85fd","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3569028586400878","idStr":"3569028586400878"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"啥意思","listText":"啥意思","text":"啥意思","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/816249995","repostId":"1126682993","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1126682993","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据，旨在帮助投资者理解世界，做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1630503974,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1126682993?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-09-01 21:46","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"美国8月Markit制造业PMI终值创4月份以来新低","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1126682993","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"美国8月Markit制造业PMI终值：61.1，创4月份以来终值新低。预期：61.2，前值：61.2。\n8月制造业输入物价分项指数终值升至87.5，创2007年5月份有数据记录以来的（终值）最高。\n8","content":"<p>美国8月Markit制造业PMI终值：<b>61.1，</b>创4月份以来终值新低。预期：61.2，前值：61.2。</p>\n<p>8月制造业输入物价分项指数终值升至87.5，创2007年5月份有数据记录以来的（终值）最高。</p>\n<p>8月就业分项指数终值降至2020年12月份以来（终值）新低。</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>美国8月Markit制造业PMI终值创4月份以来新低</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n美国8月Markit制造业PMI终值创4月份以来新低\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2021-09-01 21:46</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>美国8月Markit制造业PMI终值：<b>61.1，</b>创4月份以来终值新低。预期：61.2，前值：61.2。</p>\n<p>8月制造业输入物价分项指数终值升至87.5，创2007年5月份有数据记录以来的（终值）最高。</p>\n<p>8月就业分项指数终值降至2020年12月份以来（终值）新低。</p>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/135fb5b6f21d9ee05edcb64a0736f62f","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯"},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1126682993","content_text":"美国8月Markit制造业PMI终值：61.1，创4月份以来终值新低。预期：61.2，前值：61.2。\n8月制造业输入物价分项指数终值升至87.5，创2007年5月份有数据记录以来的（终值）最高。\n8月就业分项指数终值降至2020年12月份以来（终值）新低。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":933,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":834470370,"gmtCreate":1629823446790,"gmtModify":1631889801836,"author":{"id":"3569028586400878","authorId":"3569028586400878","name":"Miaw","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bd318611f16b0eb6de098c8b733c85fd","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3569028586400878","idStr":"3569028586400878"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"啥","listText":"啥","text":"啥","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/834470370","repostId":"1108757160","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1108757160","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"《财经天下》周刊官方认证公众号。《财经天下》周刊，不只是一本杂志，我们负责提供有品质的深度财经商业报道。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"财经天下周刊","id":"1099700153","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dd8ef15b85094ff88c7e2a2f20ecd727"},"pubTimestamp":1629818280,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1108757160?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-08-24 23:18","market":"sh","language":"zh","title":"私募大佬但斌为何输给了“时间的玫瑰”？","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1108757160","media":"财经天下周刊","summary":"作为中国白酒最大的私募“多头”，但斌旗下东方港湾在管的200多只基金产品中，有9成以上在年内是亏损的。当“冠军魔咒”在私募基金经理身上上演，是否也意味着消费赛道的底层逻辑发生了重要转变？一向以“价值投","content":"<blockquote>\n <b>作为中国白酒最大的私募“多头”，但斌旗下东方港湾在管的200多只基金产品中，有9成以上在年内是亏损的。当“冠军魔咒”在私募基金经理身上上演，是否也意味着消费赛道的底层逻辑发生了重要转变？一向以“价值投资”著称的但斌，要如何继续演绎“时间的玫瑰”？</b>\n</blockquote>\n<p>在<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WB\">微博</a>主页上，但斌自称是“一个普通、真诚、热爱生活的人”，但很少有人注意到这种介绍。大家更多关注的，是他深圳东方港湾投资管理股份有限公司董事长的身份，以及“私募大佬”、“茅台铁粉”这样的标签。</p>\n<p>比如，在<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BIDU\">百度</a>、天眼查等平台的资料展示中，但斌并非一个“普通人”：1992年开始证券、期货研究与投资生涯，曾任君安研究所及<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/601211\">国泰君安</a>研究所研究员、大鹏资管首席投资经理。2000年，获<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/02611\">国泰君安</a>证券投资研究奖励基金一等奖，2007年出版《时间的玫瑰》......擅长把握结构性机遇及上市公司内在的价值投资。</p>\n<p>2020年，但斌被微博评为“最具影响力的财经大V”，同时获此“殊荣”的还有《货币战争》作者宋鸿兵、财经作家吴晓波等财经领域的名人，以及一些知名投资人和财经自媒体博主。其中，但斌的粉丝数最高，达到1413.6万人。</p>\n<p>但也是在第二种介绍面前，但斌最近有些“失败”。7月26日，但斌在微博上公开道歉：“东方港湾成立17年多，2021年也算经历又一次考验！今年除了美股正贡献，A股与港股，都是负贡献。”</p>\n<p>《财经天下》周刊拉出数据一看，东方港湾在管的200多只基金产品中，有9成以上在年内是亏损的。继明星公募基金经理被骂之后，这位国内白酒最大的私募“多头”也被骂惨了。</p>\n<p><b>“明星”基金经理的魔咒</b></p>\n<p>8月21日周一，此前被爆锤的白酒等消费板块，面对集采“威胁”的医疗器械企业，以及因为美联储流动性恐慌被外资抛弃的港股互联网巨头们，全部“回血”了。</p>\n<p>不少投资者在网上讨论：是不是“政策底”筑成了，要迎来大反弹了？</p>\n<p>在此之前，这些前期热门的“抱团”板块已经在震荡中下跌了半年多，“杀估值”的过程让追高的股民和基民十分难熬。截至8月20日收盘，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600519\">贵州茅台</a>和<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/000858\">五粮液</a>的股价跌幅从春节以来累计跌去了40%以上，其中“股王”茅台直接从高点2608.59元/股跌到了1525.50元/低点，市值蒸发了1.36万亿元，相当于一个<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600036\">招商银行</a>。</p>\n<p>而市场上那些所谓的明星基金经理，很多都是重仓单一赛道，比如去年“抱团”行情中的消费、医药“成就”了不少基金经理，公募基金领域最典型的就是“公募一哥”易方达张坤，私募领域最典型的可能就是但斌了。二人共同的“爱好”是白酒，但去年被吹捧得有多神，如今就被骂得有多惨。</p>\n<p>最近6个月，张坤旗下的易方达蓝筹精选跌了25.56%，在同类664只产品中排在最后一名，另一只代表作易方达中小盘混合跌了18.70%，排名同样“垫底”。舆论很快也将这位去年的明星基金经理推上了风口。</p>\n<p>在此之前，重仓科技的广发基金刘格菘、诺安基金蔡嵩松，都是前车之鉴。比如刘格菘，前一年还因为踏准科技行情夺取行业冠军，第二年就被骂到“不敢出门”，蔡嵩松则因为“教我成长”的诺安成长混合基金被基民调侃谩骂了一年。</p>\n<p>在公募基金领域，这种现象被业内称为“冠军魔咒”。通俗理解就是，前一年的收益冠军，接下来一年乃至几年的业绩都会一蹶不振。</p>\n<p>类似的魔咒，也在私募基金经理身上上演。毕竟，不论是公募还是私募，都逃不过业绩的考验。</p>\n<p><b>但斌有什么不一样</b></p>\n<p>在去年的“抱团”行情中，消费因为疫情中需求的更大确定性和流动性宽松受到一致青睐，医药也成为疫情中为数不多的景气赛道，新能源则在年末“后来者”居上，各类“茅台”争奇斗艳。</p>\n<p>但其中最受关注的还是“真茅台”——“股王”贵州茅台。但斌就是出了名的茅台“铁粉”，对白酒的“偏爱”也在去年进一步“成就”了他。在私募圈，但斌对茅台的偏爱与私募大佬李驰青睐平安与林园专一医药齐名，江湖人称“但茅台、林医药、李平安”。与“无奈”清仓<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/601318\">中国平安</a>的李驰不同的是，但斌、林园在去年7月乘着“喝酒吃药”的东风，管理规模双双突破百亿。</p>\n<p>起底但斌的崛起之路，其在2004年设立了自己的私募机构深圳东方港湾投资管理股份有限公司，成为国内最早成立的私募基金之一，也是中国首批获得私募基金管理牌照的33家机构之一。在此之前，但斌因为投资股票和国债期货遭遇四次重大挫折的经历，以及2001年在全球股灾中投资香港股市大获全胜而闻名资本市场。也是从那个时候开始，但斌开始对外宣称价值投资，并频频公开唱多茅台等白酒龙头。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/eb2c1d308d817c3bc3c316b446b19b72\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"430\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>图源：<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CHN\">中国基金</a>业协会截图</p>\n<p>在贵州茅台只有400元左右的时候，但斌就预测到2018年底能涨到600元，股王茅台也一次次应验了但斌的预言，在2018年年初股价就突破了700元大关，此后势如破竹。</p>\n<p>继展望2020年“龙头酒企产能开始连续5年的增长”、“龙头酒企约30倍PE（TTM）估值虽不再便宜，但亦不贵”等言论之后，但斌又在今年4月贵州茅台股价从一股2600多元回落至2000元时依然表示：“消费永不眠”。</p>\n<p>他认为，消费类公司的周期特别长，白酒行业任何一家公司，如果从上市第一天就买入并一直持有，都能赚取几十倍甚至上百倍的回报，白酒行业是非常好的行业，未来也会表现非常出色。</p>\n<p>私募排排网数据显示，在东方港湾有公开数据且最新净值截止日为本月内的227只产品中，年内实现正收益的产品数量仅有19只，占比只有8%左右，其余有204只基金处于亏损状态。其中多只基金年内跌幅超过20%甚至30%。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/72360e08cacf11c5d6580e3764e705a9\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"846\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>图源：私募排排网</p>\n<p>而有媒体在报道中透露，今年上半年，东方港湾某私募产品重点持有了贵州茅台、五粮液等龙头白酒股，以及<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/002594\">比亚迪</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/300896\">爱美客</a>等高人气个股，而截至8月20日收盘，除比亚迪、爱美客外，其余个股在年内都有不同程度的下跌。</p>\n<p>这让公开喊话看多白酒龙头多年的“价值投资者”略显尴尬——私募大佬难道也经不起考验？产品净值为什么会出现这种集中的大涨大跌？</p>\n<p><b>“失意”的底层逻辑</b></p>\n<p>作为高净值人群选择的理财方式，私募产品动辄百万起投，管理人员也承担着更大的责任。早在但斌之前，就有汇安基金、嘉实基金等公募机构或基金经理因为高位建仓、产品净值回撤较大等公开道歉，但也有私募百亿私募希瓦资产董事长、投资总监梁宏公开怒对投资者，基金经理与投资人的关系一时引起热议。</p>\n<p>有业内人士曾向《财经天下》周刊表示，鉴于私募基金经理与投资人是委托与被委托的关系，不同于公募基金经理的间接委托模式（投资人的被委托人是基金公司），私募基金经理可能更需要与投资人做好沟通。</p>\n<p>但对于投资人来说，大部分人比较一致的态度是：道歉本身并没有用，我们只要业绩。</p>\n<p>而所谓的“冠军魔咒”，背后原因其实并不复杂——一位基金经理重仓单一赛道更容易短期取胜，但之后的板块轮动与估值回调也难以避免，泡沫迟早要破。</p>\n<p>这其中关系到一个很重要的概念——“抱团”。对此，业内看法褒贬不一，多位基金从业人员对《财经天下》周刊表示，基金经理本不应该局限于一个赛道，但“内卷”让大家不敢轻易改变“标签”，宁愿“一条道走到黑”，这本身有悖为投资者赚钱的宗旨。</p>\n<p>另有基金业内人士向《财经天下》周刊表示，追逐年度业绩相对排名的基金经理会更有动力走向“抱团”，并在下跌时争先出逃，以保证相对业绩领先，对普通的股民与基民很不友好。</p>\n<p>如今，不少私募基金经理也因为旗下产品集中亏损面临类似的质疑，而但斌因为“个性鲜明”舆论压力显然更大。</p>\n<p>在中国基金业协会官网，但斌的东方港湾旗下共有223只在管产品，同期林园的深圳市林园投资管理有限责任公司在管产品有254只，平均下来每只产品规模都很小。相比之下，国内千亿私募巨头高毅资产的管理规模为2600亿元左右，在管产品数量是837只。</p>\n<p>“旗下产品众多，而且大部分规模又很小的话，往往会有相互抬轿的嫌疑。”一位金融圈人士表示，这种现象在私募圈与公募圈都普遍存在，即用多数小规模产品为少数的“明星产品”“抬轿”。</p>\n<p>该人士指出，这也是如今“高位崩塌”的重要原因。“自己吹起来的泡沫，最后还是自己担着，当时高位做大规模的机构不在少数。”对于这种内外部抱团的模式，不少人都有此见解。</p>\n<p>但如今消费领域的底层逻辑正在发生变化。在最近的国资委党委扩大会议上，工业母机、高端芯片、新材料、新能源汽车等关键核心技术领域被重点强调，而最近网传市场监督管理总局价监竞争局约谈酒企的消息让业内很不淡定，很多投资人士认为市场正在转向，未来在降低民生成本方面还会有更多类似医药“集采”的措施出台，而流动性收紧也将让消费赛道继续“失宠”。</p>\n<p>8月21日早上，但斌在某平台上晒了一张美股反弹的图片，并表示：“看到美股的情况，能投美股的基金美股部分的上涨抵消了A股的下跌还有盈余！A股持仓是天天被捶打！”有网友调侃评论道：建议您看看《时间的玫瑰》，克服一下浮躁的心态。</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE 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}\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n私募大佬但斌为何输给了“时间的玫瑰”？\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1099700153\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/dd8ef15b85094ff88c7e2a2f20ecd727);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">财经天下周刊 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2021-08-24 23:18</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<blockquote>\n <b>作为中国白酒最大的私募“多头”，但斌旗下东方港湾在管的200多只基金产品中，有9成以上在年内是亏损的。当“冠军魔咒”在私募基金经理身上上演，是否也意味着消费赛道的底层逻辑发生了重要转变？一向以“价值投资”著称的但斌，要如何继续演绎“时间的玫瑰”？</b>\n</blockquote>\n<p>在<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WB\">微博</a>主页上，但斌自称是“一个普通、真诚、热爱生活的人”，但很少有人注意到这种介绍。大家更多关注的，是他深圳东方港湾投资管理股份有限公司董事长的身份，以及“私募大佬”、“茅台铁粉”这样的标签。</p>\n<p>比如，在<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BIDU\">百度</a>、天眼查等平台的资料展示中，但斌并非一个“普通人”：1992年开始证券、期货研究与投资生涯，曾任君安研究所及<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/601211\">国泰君安</a>研究所研究员、大鹏资管首席投资经理。2000年，获<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/02611\">国泰君安</a>证券投资研究奖励基金一等奖，2007年出版《时间的玫瑰》......擅长把握结构性机遇及上市公司内在的价值投资。</p>\n<p>2020年，但斌被微博评为“最具影响力的财经大V”，同时获此“殊荣”的还有《货币战争》作者宋鸿兵、财经作家吴晓波等财经领域的名人，以及一些知名投资人和财经自媒体博主。其中，但斌的粉丝数最高，达到1413.6万人。</p>\n<p>但也是在第二种介绍面前，但斌最近有些“失败”。7月26日，但斌在微博上公开道歉：“东方港湾成立17年多，2021年也算经历又一次考验！今年除了美股正贡献，A股与港股，都是负贡献。”</p>\n<p>《财经天下》周刊拉出数据一看，东方港湾在管的200多只基金产品中，有9成以上在年内是亏损的。继明星公募基金经理被骂之后，这位国内白酒最大的私募“多头”也被骂惨了。</p>\n<p><b>“明星”基金经理的魔咒</b></p>\n<p>8月21日周一，此前被爆锤的白酒等消费板块，面对集采“威胁”的医疗器械企业，以及因为美联储流动性恐慌被外资抛弃的港股互联网巨头们，全部“回血”了。</p>\n<p>不少投资者在网上讨论：是不是“政策底”筑成了，要迎来大反弹了？</p>\n<p>在此之前，这些前期热门的“抱团”板块已经在震荡中下跌了半年多，“杀估值”的过程让追高的股民和基民十分难熬。截至8月20日收盘，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600519\">贵州茅台</a>和<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/000858\">五粮液</a>的股价跌幅从春节以来累计跌去了40%以上，其中“股王”茅台直接从高点2608.59元/股跌到了1525.50元/低点，市值蒸发了1.36万亿元，相当于一个<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600036\">招商银行</a>。</p>\n<p>而市场上那些所谓的明星基金经理，很多都是重仓单一赛道，比如去年“抱团”行情中的消费、医药“成就”了不少基金经理，公募基金领域最典型的就是“公募一哥”易方达张坤，私募领域最典型的可能就是但斌了。二人共同的“爱好”是白酒，但去年被吹捧得有多神，如今就被骂得有多惨。</p>\n<p>最近6个月，张坤旗下的易方达蓝筹精选跌了25.56%，在同类664只产品中排在最后一名，另一只代表作易方达中小盘混合跌了18.70%，排名同样“垫底”。舆论很快也将这位去年的明星基金经理推上了风口。</p>\n<p>在此之前，重仓科技的广发基金刘格菘、诺安基金蔡嵩松，都是前车之鉴。比如刘格菘，前一年还因为踏准科技行情夺取行业冠军，第二年就被骂到“不敢出门”，蔡嵩松则因为“教我成长”的诺安成长混合基金被基民调侃谩骂了一年。</p>\n<p>在公募基金领域，这种现象被业内称为“冠军魔咒”。通俗理解就是，前一年的收益冠军，接下来一年乃至几年的业绩都会一蹶不振。</p>\n<p>类似的魔咒，也在私募基金经理身上上演。毕竟，不论是公募还是私募，都逃不过业绩的考验。</p>\n<p><b>但斌有什么不一样</b></p>\n<p>在去年的“抱团”行情中，消费因为疫情中需求的更大确定性和流动性宽松受到一致青睐，医药也成为疫情中为数不多的景气赛道，新能源则在年末“后来者”居上，各类“茅台”争奇斗艳。</p>\n<p>但其中最受关注的还是“真茅台”——“股王”贵州茅台。但斌就是出了名的茅台“铁粉”，对白酒的“偏爱”也在去年进一步“成就”了他。在私募圈，但斌对茅台的偏爱与私募大佬李驰青睐平安与林园专一医药齐名，江湖人称“但茅台、林医药、李平安”。与“无奈”清仓<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/601318\">中国平安</a>的李驰不同的是，但斌、林园在去年7月乘着“喝酒吃药”的东风，管理规模双双突破百亿。</p>\n<p>起底但斌的崛起之路，其在2004年设立了自己的私募机构深圳东方港湾投资管理股份有限公司，成为国内最早成立的私募基金之一，也是中国首批获得私募基金管理牌照的33家机构之一。在此之前，但斌因为投资股票和国债期货遭遇四次重大挫折的经历，以及2001年在全球股灾中投资香港股市大获全胜而闻名资本市场。也是从那个时候开始，但斌开始对外宣称价值投资，并频频公开唱多茅台等白酒龙头。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/eb2c1d308d817c3bc3c316b446b19b72\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"430\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>图源：<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CHN\">中国基金</a>业协会截图</p>\n<p>在贵州茅台只有400元左右的时候，但斌就预测到2018年底能涨到600元，股王茅台也一次次应验了但斌的预言，在2018年年初股价就突破了700元大关，此后势如破竹。</p>\n<p>继展望2020年“龙头酒企产能开始连续5年的增长”、“龙头酒企约30倍PE（TTM）估值虽不再便宜，但亦不贵”等言论之后，但斌又在今年4月贵州茅台股价从一股2600多元回落至2000元时依然表示：“消费永不眠”。</p>\n<p>他认为，消费类公司的周期特别长，白酒行业任何一家公司，如果从上市第一天就买入并一直持有，都能赚取几十倍甚至上百倍的回报，白酒行业是非常好的行业，未来也会表现非常出色。</p>\n<p>私募排排网数据显示，在东方港湾有公开数据且最新净值截止日为本月内的227只产品中，年内实现正收益的产品数量仅有19只，占比只有8%左右，其余有204只基金处于亏损状态。其中多只基金年内跌幅超过20%甚至30%。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/72360e08cacf11c5d6580e3764e705a9\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"846\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>图源：私募排排网</p>\n<p>而有媒体在报道中透露，今年上半年，东方港湾某私募产品重点持有了贵州茅台、五粮液等龙头白酒股，以及<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/002594\">比亚迪</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/300896\">爱美客</a>等高人气个股，而截至8月20日收盘，除比亚迪、爱美客外，其余个股在年内都有不同程度的下跌。</p>\n<p>这让公开喊话看多白酒龙头多年的“价值投资者”略显尴尬——私募大佬难道也经不起考验？产品净值为什么会出现这种集中的大涨大跌？</p>\n<p><b>“失意”的底层逻辑</b></p>\n<p>作为高净值人群选择的理财方式，私募产品动辄百万起投，管理人员也承担着更大的责任。早在但斌之前，就有汇安基金、嘉实基金等公募机构或基金经理因为高位建仓、产品净值回撤较大等公开道歉，但也有私募百亿私募希瓦资产董事长、投资总监梁宏公开怒对投资者，基金经理与投资人的关系一时引起热议。</p>\n<p>有业内人士曾向《财经天下》周刊表示，鉴于私募基金经理与投资人是委托与被委托的关系，不同于公募基金经理的间接委托模式（投资人的被委托人是基金公司），私募基金经理可能更需要与投资人做好沟通。</p>\n<p>但对于投资人来说，大部分人比较一致的态度是：道歉本身并没有用，我们只要业绩。</p>\n<p>而所谓的“冠军魔咒”，背后原因其实并不复杂——一位基金经理重仓单一赛道更容易短期取胜，但之后的板块轮动与估值回调也难以避免，泡沫迟早要破。</p>\n<p>这其中关系到一个很重要的概念——“抱团”。对此，业内看法褒贬不一，多位基金从业人员对《财经天下》周刊表示，基金经理本不应该局限于一个赛道，但“内卷”让大家不敢轻易改变“标签”，宁愿“一条道走到黑”，这本身有悖为投资者赚钱的宗旨。</p>\n<p>另有基金业内人士向《财经天下》周刊表示，追逐年度业绩相对排名的基金经理会更有动力走向“抱团”，并在下跌时争先出逃，以保证相对业绩领先，对普通的股民与基民很不友好。</p>\n<p>如今，不少私募基金经理也因为旗下产品集中亏损面临类似的质疑，而但斌因为“个性鲜明”舆论压力显然更大。</p>\n<p>在中国基金业协会官网，但斌的东方港湾旗下共有223只在管产品，同期林园的深圳市林园投资管理有限责任公司在管产品有254只，平均下来每只产品规模都很小。相比之下，国内千亿私募巨头高毅资产的管理规模为2600亿元左右，在管产品数量是837只。</p>\n<p>“旗下产品众多，而且大部分规模又很小的话，往往会有相互抬轿的嫌疑。”一位金融圈人士表示，这种现象在私募圈与公募圈都普遍存在，即用多数小规模产品为少数的“明星产品”“抬轿”。</p>\n<p>该人士指出，这也是如今“高位崩塌”的重要原因。“自己吹起来的泡沫，最后还是自己担着，当时高位做大规模的机构不在少数。”对于这种内外部抱团的模式，不少人都有此见解。</p>\n<p>但如今消费领域的底层逻辑正在发生变化。在最近的国资委党委扩大会议上，工业母机、高端芯片、新材料、新能源汽车等关键核心技术领域被重点强调，而最近网传市场监督管理总局价监竞争局约谈酒企的消息让业内很不淡定，很多投资人士认为市场正在转向，未来在降低民生成本方面还会有更多类似医药“集采”的措施出台，而流动性收紧也将让消费赛道继续“失宠”。</p>\n<p>8月21日早上，但斌在某平台上晒了一张美股反弹的图片，并表示：“看到美股的情况，能投美股的基金美股部分的上涨抵消了A股的下跌还有盈余！A股持仓是天天被捶打！”有网友调侃评论道：建议您看看《时间的玫瑰》，克服一下浮躁的心态。</p>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/01c2ee2454656f7837c1c34ad3059453","relate_stocks":{"399001":"深证成指","399006":"创业板指","000001.SH":"上证指数"},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1108757160","content_text":"作为中国白酒最大的私募“多头”，但斌旗下东方港湾在管的200多只基金产品中，有9成以上在年内是亏损的。当“冠军魔咒”在私募基金经理身上上演，是否也意味着消费赛道的底层逻辑发生了重要转变？一向以“价值投资”著称的但斌，要如何继续演绎“时间的玫瑰”？\n\n在微博主页上，但斌自称是“一个普通、真诚、热爱生活的人”，但很少有人注意到这种介绍。大家更多关注的，是他深圳东方港湾投资管理股份有限公司董事长的身份，以及“私募大佬”、“茅台铁粉”这样的标签。\n比如，在百度、天眼查等平台的资料展示中，但斌并非一个“普通人”：1992年开始证券、期货研究与投资生涯，曾任君安研究所及国泰君安研究所研究员、大鹏资管首席投资经理。2000年，获国泰君安证券投资研究奖励基金一等奖，2007年出版《时间的玫瑰》......擅长把握结构性机遇及上市公司内在的价值投资。\n2020年，但斌被微博评为“最具影响力的财经大V”，同时获此“殊荣”的还有《货币战争》作者宋鸿兵、财经作家吴晓波等财经领域的名人，以及一些知名投资人和财经自媒体博主。其中，但斌的粉丝数最高，达到1413.6万人。\n但也是在第二种介绍面前，但斌最近有些“失败”。7月26日，但斌在微博上公开道歉：“东方港湾成立17年多，2021年也算经历又一次考验！今年除了美股正贡献，A股与港股，都是负贡献。”\n《财经天下》周刊拉出数据一看，东方港湾在管的200多只基金产品中，有9成以上在年内是亏损的。继明星公募基金经理被骂之后，这位国内白酒最大的私募“多头”也被骂惨了。\n“明星”基金经理的魔咒\n8月21日周一，此前被爆锤的白酒等消费板块，面对集采“威胁”的医疗器械企业，以及因为美联储流动性恐慌被外资抛弃的港股互联网巨头们，全部“回血”了。\n不少投资者在网上讨论：是不是“政策底”筑成了，要迎来大反弹了？\n在此之前，这些前期热门的“抱团”板块已经在震荡中下跌了半年多，“杀估值”的过程让追高的股民和基民十分难熬。截至8月20日收盘，贵州茅台和五粮液的股价跌幅从春节以来累计跌去了40%以上，其中“股王”茅台直接从高点2608.59元/股跌到了1525.50元/低点，市值蒸发了1.36万亿元，相当于一个招商银行。\n而市场上那些所谓的明星基金经理，很多都是重仓单一赛道，比如去年“抱团”行情中的消费、医药“成就”了不少基金经理，公募基金领域最典型的就是“公募一哥”易方达张坤，私募领域最典型的可能就是但斌了。二人共同的“爱好”是白酒，但去年被吹捧得有多神，如今就被骂得有多惨。\n最近6个月，张坤旗下的易方达蓝筹精选跌了25.56%，在同类664只产品中排在最后一名，另一只代表作易方达中小盘混合跌了18.70%，排名同样“垫底”。舆论很快也将这位去年的明星基金经理推上了风口。\n在此之前，重仓科技的广发基金刘格菘、诺安基金蔡嵩松，都是前车之鉴。比如刘格菘，前一年还因为踏准科技行情夺取行业冠军，第二年就被骂到“不敢出门”，蔡嵩松则因为“教我成长”的诺安成长混合基金被基民调侃谩骂了一年。\n在公募基金领域，这种现象被业内称为“冠军魔咒”。通俗理解就是，前一年的收益冠军，接下来一年乃至几年的业绩都会一蹶不振。\n类似的魔咒，也在私募基金经理身上上演。毕竟，不论是公募还是私募，都逃不过业绩的考验。\n但斌有什么不一样\n在去年的“抱团”行情中，消费因为疫情中需求的更大确定性和流动性宽松受到一致青睐，医药也成为疫情中为数不多的景气赛道，新能源则在年末“后来者”居上，各类“茅台”争奇斗艳。\n但其中最受关注的还是“真茅台”——“股王”贵州茅台。但斌就是出了名的茅台“铁粉”，对白酒的“偏爱”也在去年进一步“成就”了他。在私募圈，但斌对茅台的偏爱与私募大佬李驰青睐平安与林园专一医药齐名，江湖人称“但茅台、林医药、李平安”。与“无奈”清仓中国平安的李驰不同的是，但斌、林园在去年7月乘着“喝酒吃药”的东风，管理规模双双突破百亿。\n起底但斌的崛起之路，其在2004年设立了自己的私募机构深圳东方港湾投资管理股份有限公司，成为国内最早成立的私募基金之一，也是中国首批获得私募基金管理牌照的33家机构之一。在此之前，但斌因为投资股票和国债期货遭遇四次重大挫折的经历，以及2001年在全球股灾中投资香港股市大获全胜而闻名资本市场。也是从那个时候开始，但斌开始对外宣称价值投资，并频频公开唱多茅台等白酒龙头。\n\n图源：中国基金业协会截图\n在贵州茅台只有400元左右的时候，但斌就预测到2018年底能涨到600元，股王茅台也一次次应验了但斌的预言，在2018年年初股价就突破了700元大关，此后势如破竹。\n继展望2020年“龙头酒企产能开始连续5年的增长”、“龙头酒企约30倍PE（TTM）估值虽不再便宜，但亦不贵”等言论之后，但斌又在今年4月贵州茅台股价从一股2600多元回落至2000元时依然表示：“消费永不眠”。\n他认为，消费类公司的周期特别长，白酒行业任何一家公司，如果从上市第一天就买入并一直持有，都能赚取几十倍甚至上百倍的回报，白酒行业是非常好的行业，未来也会表现非常出色。\n私募排排网数据显示，在东方港湾有公开数据且最新净值截止日为本月内的227只产品中，年内实现正收益的产品数量仅有19只，占比只有8%左右，其余有204只基金处于亏损状态。其中多只基金年内跌幅超过20%甚至30%。\n\n图源：私募排排网\n而有媒体在报道中透露，今年上半年，东方港湾某私募产品重点持有了贵州茅台、五粮液等龙头白酒股，以及比亚迪、爱美客等高人气个股，而截至8月20日收盘，除比亚迪、爱美客外，其余个股在年内都有不同程度的下跌。\n这让公开喊话看多白酒龙头多年的“价值投资者”略显尴尬——私募大佬难道也经不起考验？产品净值为什么会出现这种集中的大涨大跌？\n“失意”的底层逻辑\n作为高净值人群选择的理财方式，私募产品动辄百万起投，管理人员也承担着更大的责任。早在但斌之前，就有汇安基金、嘉实基金等公募机构或基金经理因为高位建仓、产品净值回撤较大等公开道歉，但也有私募百亿私募希瓦资产董事长、投资总监梁宏公开怒对投资者，基金经理与投资人的关系一时引起热议。\n有业内人士曾向《财经天下》周刊表示，鉴于私募基金经理与投资人是委托与被委托的关系，不同于公募基金经理的间接委托模式（投资人的被委托人是基金公司），私募基金经理可能更需要与投资人做好沟通。\n但对于投资人来说，大部分人比较一致的态度是：道歉本身并没有用，我们只要业绩。\n而所谓的“冠军魔咒”，背后原因其实并不复杂——一位基金经理重仓单一赛道更容易短期取胜，但之后的板块轮动与估值回调也难以避免，泡沫迟早要破。\n这其中关系到一个很重要的概念——“抱团”。对此，业内看法褒贬不一，多位基金从业人员对《财经天下》周刊表示，基金经理本不应该局限于一个赛道，但“内卷”让大家不敢轻易改变“标签”，宁愿“一条道走到黑”，这本身有悖为投资者赚钱的宗旨。\n另有基金业内人士向《财经天下》周刊表示，追逐年度业绩相对排名的基金经理会更有动力走向“抱团”，并在下跌时争先出逃，以保证相对业绩领先，对普通的股民与基民很不友好。\n如今，不少私募基金经理也因为旗下产品集中亏损面临类似的质疑，而但斌因为“个性鲜明”舆论压力显然更大。\n在中国基金业协会官网，但斌的东方港湾旗下共有223只在管产品，同期林园的深圳市林园投资管理有限责任公司在管产品有254只，平均下来每只产品规模都很小。相比之下，国内千亿私募巨头高毅资产的管理规模为2600亿元左右，在管产品数量是837只。\n“旗下产品众多，而且大部分规模又很小的话，往往会有相互抬轿的嫌疑。”一位金融圈人士表示，这种现象在私募圈与公募圈都普遍存在，即用多数小规模产品为少数的“明星产品”“抬轿”。\n该人士指出，这也是如今“高位崩塌”的重要原因。“自己吹起来的泡沫，最后还是自己担着，当时高位做大规模的机构不在少数。”对于这种内外部抱团的模式，不少人都有此见解。\n但如今消费领域的底层逻辑正在发生变化。在最近的国资委党委扩大会议上，工业母机、高端芯片、新材料、新能源汽车等关键核心技术领域被重点强调，而最近网传市场监督管理总局价监竞争局约谈酒企的消息让业内很不淡定，很多投资人士认为市场正在转向，未来在降低民生成本方面还会有更多类似医药“集采”的措施出台，而流动性收紧也将让消费赛道继续“失宠”。\n8月21日早上，但斌在某平台上晒了一张美股反弹的图片，并表示：“看到美股的情况，能投美股的基金美股部分的上涨抵消了A股的下跌还有盈余！A股持仓是天天被捶打！”有网友调侃评论道：建议您看看《时间的玫瑰》，克服一下浮躁的心态。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":878,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":834447467,"gmtCreate":1629823413259,"gmtModify":1631889801844,"author":{"id":"3569028586400878","authorId":"3569028586400878","name":"Miaw","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bd318611f16b0eb6de098c8b733c85fd","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3569028586400878","idStr":"3569028586400878"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"酱开心，你买了吗","listText":"酱开心，你买了吗","text":"酱开心，你买了吗","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/834447467","repostId":"1182734628","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1182734628","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据，旨在帮助投资者理解世界，做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1629707690,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1182734628?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-08-23 16:34","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"药明生物上半年营收44.1亿，净利润18.4亿","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1182734628","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"8月23日，药明生物2021年上半年营收44.1亿元，去年同期19.44亿元；上半年净利润18.4亿元，去年同期7.36亿元；上半年每股盈利0.42元，去年同期0.18元；上半年毛利率52.1%，去年","content":"<p>8月23日，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/02269\">药明生物</a>2021年上半年营收44.1亿元，去年同期19.44亿元；上半年净利润18.4亿元，去年同期7.36亿元；上半年每股盈利0.42元，去年同期0.18元；上半年毛利率52.1%，去年同期为40.5%。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d6c0caadec6946d793e051150d4f5694\" tg-width=\"714\" tg-height=\"668\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>报告期内，集团再次超额完成业绩目标。凭藉其行业领先的赋能平台，集团继续成功实施“赢得分子”策略，为加速及转变生物药(特别是COVID-19药物及疫苗)的发现、开发及生产提供端到端解决方案。</p>\n<p>根据披露，综合项目数由去年同期的286个，增长42.7%至2021年6月30日的408个；临床前项目数由去年同期的141个，增长50.4%至2021年6月30日的212个；早期(第I及II期)临床开发项目数由去年同期的125个，增长28.0%至2021年6月30日的160个(其中I期项目116个、II期项目44个)；后期(第III期)临床开发项目数由去年同期的19个，增长68.4%至2021年6月30日的32个，为启动更多的商业化生产项目奠定基础；集团在报告期内新增两个商业化生产项目；集团成功将更多项目从IND前阶段进展至IND后阶段：报告期内，14个项目已由临床前开发阶段进入早期临床开发阶段。</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>药明生物上半年营收44.1亿，净利润18.4亿</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n药明生物上半年营收44.1亿，净利润18.4亿\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2021-08-23 16:34</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>8月23日，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/02269\">药明生物</a>2021年上半年营收44.1亿元，去年同期19.44亿元；上半年净利润18.4亿元，去年同期7.36亿元；上半年每股盈利0.42元，去年同期0.18元；上半年毛利率52.1%，去年同期为40.5%。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d6c0caadec6946d793e051150d4f5694\" tg-width=\"714\" tg-height=\"668\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>报告期内，集团再次超额完成业绩目标。凭藉其行业领先的赋能平台，集团继续成功实施“赢得分子”策略，为加速及转变生物药(特别是COVID-19药物及疫苗)的发现、开发及生产提供端到端解决方案。</p>\n<p>根据披露，综合项目数由去年同期的286个，增长42.7%至2021年6月30日的408个；临床前项目数由去年同期的141个，增长50.4%至2021年6月30日的212个；早期(第I及II期)临床开发项目数由去年同期的125个，增长28.0%至2021年6月30日的160个(其中I期项目116个、II期项目44个)；后期(第III期)临床开发项目数由去年同期的19个，增长68.4%至2021年6月30日的32个，为启动更多的商业化生产项目奠定基础；集团在报告期内新增两个商业化生产项目；集团成功将更多项目从IND前阶段进展至IND后阶段：报告期内，14个项目已由临床前开发阶段进入早期临床开发阶段。</p>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c1cb237e736a4e03c939622e7b71e8e7","relate_stocks":{"02269":"药明生物"},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1182734628","content_text":"8月23日，药明生物2021年上半年营收44.1亿元，去年同期19.44亿元；上半年净利润18.4亿元，去年同期7.36亿元；上半年每股盈利0.42元，去年同期0.18元；上半年毛利率52.1%，去年同期为40.5%。\n\n报告期内，集团再次超额完成业绩目标。凭藉其行业领先的赋能平台，集团继续成功实施“赢得分子”策略，为加速及转变生物药(特别是COVID-19药物及疫苗)的发现、开发及生产提供端到端解决方案。\n根据披露，综合项目数由去年同期的286个，增长42.7%至2021年6月30日的408个；临床前项目数由去年同期的141个，增长50.4%至2021年6月30日的212个；早期(第I及II期)临床开发项目数由去年同期的125个，增长28.0%至2021年6月30日的160个(其中I期项目116个、II期项目44个)；后期(第III期)临床开发项目数由去年同期的19个，增长68.4%至2021年6月30日的32个，为启动更多的商业化生产项目奠定基础；集团在报告期内新增两个商业化生产项目；集团成功将更多项目从IND前阶段进展至IND后阶段：报告期内，14个项目已由临床前开发阶段进入早期临床开发阶段。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1245,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":832240871,"gmtCreate":1629644083393,"gmtModify":1631889801858,"author":{"id":"3569028586400878","authorId":"3569028586400878","name":"Miaw","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bd318611f16b0eb6de098c8b733c85fd","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3569028586400878","idStr":"3569028586400878"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"等呗","listText":"等呗","text":"等呗","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/832240871","repostId":"2161988742","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1627,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":832240394,"gmtCreate":1629644045818,"gmtModify":1631889801871,"author":{"id":"3569028586400878","authorId":"3569028586400878","name":"Miaw","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bd318611f16b0eb6de098c8b733c85fd","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3569028586400878","idStr":"3569028586400878"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"啥玩意","listText":"啥玩意","text":"啥玩意","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/832240394","repostId":"2161742158","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1056,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":836897078,"gmtCreate":1629468624694,"gmtModify":1631889801890,"author":{"id":"3569028586400878","authorId":"3569028586400878","name":"Miaw","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bd318611f16b0eb6de098c8b733c85fd","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3569028586400878","idStr":"3569028586400878"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"[得意]&nbsp;","listText":"[得意]&nbsp;","text":"[得意]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/836897078","repostId":"1134671349","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":491,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":147510180,"gmtCreate":1626363170840,"gmtModify":1631889801892,"author":{"id":"3569028586400878","authorId":"3569028586400878","name":"Miaw","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bd318611f16b0eb6de098c8b733c85fd","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3569028586400878","idStr":"3569028586400878"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"分手吧","listText":"分手吧","text":"分手吧","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/147510180","repostId":"1159805435","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1159805435","pubTimestamp":1626361236,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1159805435?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-07-15 23:00","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"8年对抗不如罚单8天！阿里腾讯真和解吗？","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1159805435","media":"北京商报","summary":"两大互联网巨头传出的和解消息，在7月15日晨间如平地一声惊雷。\n数十年纠缠将一笑泯恩仇？\n据相关媒体报道，阿里和腾讯将考虑互相开放生态系统。\n图片来源：阿里巴巴集团官网截图\n可能淘宝和天猫将能微信支付","content":"<div>\n<p>两大互联网巨头传出的和解消息，在7月15日晨间如平地一声惊雷。\n数十年纠缠将一笑泯恩仇？\n据相关媒体报道，阿里和腾讯将考虑互相开放生态系统。\n图片来源：阿里巴巴集团官网截图\n可能淘宝和天猫将能微信支付将能进入，而阿里的电商内容也能在微信分享，或是以小程序形式进入微信。\n不过，无论双方真心示好，还是貌合神离，利益总是无法绕过的话题。\n图片来源：视觉中国\n老冤家变朋友？\n“腾讯系”“阿里系”“字节系”...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/uaM4yfXiPiL61RWynzkGCw\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n","source":"BJSB","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>8年对抗不如罚单8天！阿里腾讯真和解吗？</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n8年对抗不如罚单8天！阿里腾讯真和解吗？\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-07-15 23:00 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/uaM4yfXiPiL61RWynzkGCw><strong>北京商报</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>两大互联网巨头传出的和解消息，在7月15日晨间如平地一声惊雷。\n数十年纠缠将一笑泯恩仇？\n据相关媒体报道，阿里和腾讯将考虑互相开放生态系统。\n图片来源：阿里巴巴集团官网截图\n可能淘宝和天猫将能微信支付将能进入，而阿里的电商内容也能在微信分享，或是以小程序形式进入微信。\n不过，无论双方真心示好，还是貌合神离，利益总是无法绕过的话题。\n图片来源：视觉中国\n老冤家变朋友？\n“腾讯系”“阿里系”“字节系”...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/uaM4yfXiPiL61RWynzkGCw\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/805005e12b5cff6e532fd1428a7a07b7","relate_stocks":{"TCEHY":"腾讯控股ADR","09988":"阿里巴巴-W","00700":"腾讯控股","BABA":"阿里巴巴"},"source_url":"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/uaM4yfXiPiL61RWynzkGCw","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1159805435","content_text":"两大互联网巨头传出的和解消息，在7月15日晨间如平地一声惊雷。\n数十年纠缠将一笑泯恩仇？\n据相关媒体报道，阿里和腾讯将考虑互相开放生态系统。\n图片来源：阿里巴巴集团官网截图\n可能淘宝和天猫将能微信支付将能进入，而阿里的电商内容也能在微信分享，或是以小程序形式进入微信。\n不过，无论双方真心示好，还是貌合神离，利益总是无法绕过的话题。\n图片来源：视觉中国\n老冤家变朋友？\n“腾讯系”“阿里系”“字节系”……这些人们耳熟能详的惯常称呼背后，映射出互联网巨头们数十年来孵化搭建的商业网和利益网是如此盘根错杂。淘宝与微信无法实现直接跳转，便是阿里和腾讯长达八年明争暗斗最为直观的缩影。\n图片来源：腾讯官网截图\n电商、实体零售、文娱、金融、支付……几乎各个领域都能瞧见两者以入股或收购手段，或明或暗地捉对比拼。仅以零售来说，虽然腾讯苦于供应链资源能力，却凭借庞大的社交流量拉拢京东、拼多多，扶持SaaS技术服务商微盟、有赞，认购美团股份等方式来扩展商业版图。\n据《南方周末》的统计数据显示，从2008-2020年，阿里与腾讯共投资企业分别为549家和763家。从共享单车、打车、外卖到社交团购，哪儿有新业态、新模式萌芽，哪儿就有巨头激烈交火。回顾历年来电商平台掀起的腥风血雨，如滴滴与快的高达24亿元的厮杀，美团、饿了么的补贴大战等等，可以说将烧钱换份额演绎到了极致。\n图片来源：阿里巴巴集团官网截图\n如今，对于市场传出两者互相示好的消息，截至发稿，阿里与腾讯相关负责人均未向北京商报记者进行回应。\n走向十字路口\n到底是打算真正冰释前嫌，还是迫于无奈握手言和，在当前复杂环境下，阿里和腾讯无疑需要进一步考量和权衡进退策略。\n资料显示，从2020年底，阿里与腾讯便相继认领各类罚单：2020年12月，阿里、阅文集团因未依法申报违法实施经营者集中案分别被罚50万元；2021年4月，阿里被市场监管总局责令整改滥用市场支配地位行为，并罚款182亿元；2021年7月，市场监管总局通报22起违法实施经营者集中案件，其中阿里占6起，腾讯占5起，两者分别被罚50万元。\n\n与此同时，7月2日，市场监管总局对《价格违法行为行政处罚规定(修订征求意见稿)》公开征求意见。低价倾销、大数据“杀熟”等新业态中常见手段将被定性为价格违法行为。\n一方面是政府监管加强，政策收紧，巨头曾屡试不爽的资本操作将戴上“紧箍咒”，而另一方面，尽管阿里与腾讯角力数十年间，双方投入不分上下，却仍难深入腹地，攻破彼此最擅长的领域。从拼多多的崛起，到抖音、快手扩张电商业务，新势力正不断蚕食阿里和腾讯固守的防线——供应链能力或是社交流量。\n图片来源：字节跳动官网截图\n巨头们引以为傲的优势，或许并不是想象中那么固若金汤。7月15日，据相关媒体报道，抖音已开启外卖业务内测。在部分业内人士眼中，这意味着抖音不仅将进一步挑战饿了么、美团在外卖市场的“双寡头”格局，为商家再添销售渠道，短视频营销也会改变用户在餐饮外卖场景的体验心智。\n绕不开的利益顾虑\n不过，若是阿里能获得进入微信生态的机会，腾讯会开多大的口子，该如何平衡商业生态内合作伙伴与阿里的竞争关系，保护拼多多、京东、唯品会以及小程序商家等的利益，而阿里又将如何容纳微信支付与支付宝同处一室，又不短兵相接，将左右两者在实际业务推进上的难易程度。毕竟，后来者拼多多能快速跑马圈地，离不开腾讯社交生态的扶持，最终成长为阿里难以忽视的竞争对手。\n\n图片来源：腾讯官网截图\n“腾讯也许在流量开放上面会对阿里有所保留，可能会从开放一部分开始，比如小程序或者企业微信。”电商分析师鲁振旺认为，“因为现在微信的商业生态价值和它目前的体系有关，目前微信在推广企业微信，很多商家在微信上经营自己的用户，或是向微信投放广告吸引用户，这项业务也会逐渐变为微信重要的广告来源，但如果向淘宝开放，那商家在淘宝的用户便能直接导入微信，微信的广告业务可能会受到波及甚至需要改变它的业务体系。”\n巨头间明面的示好，背后仍有诸多利益顾虑。鲁振旺补充道，对于阿里来说，微信支付接入淘宝后，如果用户使用量超过支付宝，很有可能会影响蚂蚁金服的估值，所以阿里也会考量是否要真正开放支付系统。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":712,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":140753596,"gmtCreate":1625675781815,"gmtModify":1631889801904,"author":{"id":"3569028586400878","authorId":"3569028586400878","name":"Miaw","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bd318611f16b0eb6de098c8b733c85fd","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3569028586400878","idStr":"3569028586400878"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Aiyo&nbsp;","listText":"Aiyo&nbsp;","text":"Aiyo","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/140753596","repostId":"1186984060","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":328,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":154824897,"gmtCreate":1625500285719,"gmtModify":1631889801926,"author":{"id":"3569028586400878","authorId":"3569028586400878","name":"Miaw","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bd318611f16b0eb6de098c8b733c85fd","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3569028586400878","idStr":"3569028586400878"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"且行且珍惜[开心]&nbsp;","listText":"且行且珍惜[开心]&nbsp;","text":"且行且珍惜[开心]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/154824897","repostId":"1172687898","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":550,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":156760907,"gmtCreate":1625237077809,"gmtModify":1631891732471,"author":{"id":"3569028586400878","authorId":"3569028586400878","name":"Miaw","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bd318611f16b0eb6de098c8b733c85fd","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3569028586400878","idStr":"3569028586400878"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"[看涨]&nbsp;[看跌]&nbsp;","listText":"[看涨]&nbsp;[看跌]&nbsp;","text":"[看涨] [看跌]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/156760907","repostId":"1156268224","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1156268224","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据，旨在帮助投资者理解世界，做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1625234699,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1156268224?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-07-02 22:04","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"【异动】AMC直线跳水！做空机构：我们正在做空","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1156268224","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"7月2日，AMC院线盘初跌超8%，做空机构Iceberg Research：我们正在做空AMC院线。","content":"<p>7月2日，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMC\">AMC院线</a>盘初跌超8%，做空机构Iceberg Research：我们正在做空AMC院线。<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3d1e215772c9c8e2ea0f3cd90e535d59\" tg-width=\"596\" tg-height=\"137\" 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0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n【异动】AMC直线跳水！做空机构：我们正在做空\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2021-07-02 22:04</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>7月2日，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMC\">AMC院线</a>盘初跌超8%，做空机构Iceberg Research：我们正在做空AMC院线。<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3d1e215772c9c8e2ea0f3cd90e535d59\" tg-width=\"596\" tg-height=\"137\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d9710d40ef88052b43b057486be81cb4\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3400ab07be851836f985363e52636fda","relate_stocks":{"AMC":"AMC院线"},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1156268224","content_text":"7月2日，AMC院线盘初跌超8%，做空机构Iceberg Research：我们正在做空AMC院线。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":465,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":150691764,"gmtCreate":1624894976058,"gmtModify":1631891732470,"author":{"id":"3569028586400878","authorId":"3569028586400878","name":"Miaw","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bd318611f16b0eb6de098c8b733c85fd","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3569028586400878","idStr":"3569028586400878"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"What happen to nio","listText":"What happen to nio","text":"What happen to nio","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/150691764","repostId":"1189694806","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1189694806","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据，旨在帮助投资者理解世界，做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1624894784,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1189694806?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-28 23:39","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"【异动】造车新势力彻底爆发，蔚来汽车涨9%","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1189694806","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"6月28日，中概新能源车股持续走高，蔚来涨9%，理想汽车涨超7%，小鹏汽车涨超6%。","content":"<p>6月28日，中概新能源车股持续走高，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO\">蔚来</a>涨9%，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LI\">理想汽车</a>涨超7%，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/XPEV\">小鹏汽车</a>涨超6%。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/51155eb57192c0b7db9dad0dfa6326f3\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>【异动】造车新势力彻底爆发，蔚来汽车涨9%</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ 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}\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n【异动】造车新势力彻底爆发，蔚来汽车涨9%\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2021-06-28 23:39</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>6月28日，中概新能源车股持续走高，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO\">蔚来</a>涨9%，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LI\">理想汽车</a>涨超7%，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/XPEV\">小鹏汽车</a>涨超6%。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/51155eb57192c0b7db9dad0dfa6326f3\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1f36b37eb8e9efe8641c7be55a7da26d","relate_stocks":{"LI":"理想汽车","NIO":"蔚来"},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1189694806","content_text":"6月28日，中概新能源车股持续走高，蔚来涨9%，理想汽车涨超7%，小鹏汽车涨超6%。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":258,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":124797327,"gmtCreate":1624789748069,"gmtModify":1631891732472,"author":{"id":"3569028586400878","authorId":"3569028586400878","name":"Miaw","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bd318611f16b0eb6de098c8b733c85fd","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3569028586400878","idStr":"3569028586400878"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"What's VC stand for","listText":"What's VC stand for","text":"What's VC stand for","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/124797327","repostId":"1137416078","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1137416078","pubTimestamp":1624756847,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1137416078?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-27 09:20","market":"sh","language":"zh","title":"用VC的长线思维买基金","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1137416078","media":"兴证全球基金","summary":"提起风险投资（VC），人们会想到这些传奇故事：“孙正义6分钟就决定投资阿里巴巴，狂赚2500多倍；彼得·蒂尔给Facebook投了50万美元，8年后变成约11亿美元；阿瑟·洛克给苹果投了约6万美元，3","content":"<blockquote>\n 提起风险投资（VC），人们会想到这些传奇故事：“孙正义6分钟就决定投资阿里巴巴，狂赚2500多倍；彼得·蒂尔给Facebook投了50万美元，8年后变成约11亿美元；阿瑟·洛克给苹果投了约6万美元，3年后上涨为约1400万美元……”\n</blockquote>\n<p>有趣的是，VC往往会被认为是“一夜暴富”，实际上行业头部效应非常明显，也必须拥有投资的珍贵品质——耐心；在外人看来，VC所在的一级市场缺少流动性，但这在VC眼中或许反而是优势。</p>\n<p>风险投资人黄海指出：<b>风险投资体现了“买入是逻辑，卖出是艺术”，</b>普通人也能借鉴VC的思维做投资。此话怎讲？</p>\n<p><b>从VC视角，看风险与收益</b></p>\n<p>风险投资也叫创业投资，有“高风险、高回报”的特点，毕竟大多数创业企业可能都会失败，极少数成功案例可以为失败案例买单。统计显示，美国VC行业整体年化收益约为16.4%，不过VC的头部效应、品牌效应非常明显。（美国风险投资协会数据，1987-2007区间年化收益率）</p>\n<p>VC是如何“悄悄变富，惊艳世人”的？风险投资家并非不惧风险的勇士，优秀的VC会通过惊人的耐心、准确的判断斩获更高胜率。红杉资本是全球最著名的VC之一，在美国投资了苹果、思科、谷歌、领英、WhatsApp等公司，据统计其平均持股时间达7年。</p>\n<p>图：红杉等基金的历史回报</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/40253c47149648e82c2e40812ca53e02\" tg-width=\"821\" tg-height=\"630\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>数据来源：《风投》，哈佛大学教授汤姆·尼古拉斯著。圆圈大小与规模大小成正比。</p>\n<p>为什么VC这么有耐心？答案很简单：不得不如此。参与一级市场的VC，往往不能随时退出，VC出资人也需要“被迫”长期持有。与一级市场相比，二级市场流动性更好，你能获得每天，甚至实时报价，但反过来看，“这是否也是二级市场的缺点呢？”</p>\n<p>正所谓“心急吃不了热豆腐”，VC一定深有体会。一方面，由于一级市场缺乏流动性，每次交易可能需要等很多年。另一方面，早期阶段的公司，不存在实时报价，估值变化也可能非常剧烈。VC能抵挡“赚快钱”的诱惑，恰恰是因为缺少这个途径。</p>\n<p>“募、投、管、退”四个步骤是VC的职责，其中最重要的环节就是“退”。判断是退出还是继续加码，是非常考验VC能力的事情。比如张一鸣的“九九房”创业失败了，但“一个华丽转身”打造出今日头条，所以重要的还是回归对商业与经营者的复杂判断。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3205726f8d1bc5d96af2f7e72ee5a296\" tg-width=\"469\" tg-height=\"115\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>时有风吹幡动，非风动，非幡动，实乃心动——虽然二级市场提供了频繁交易的可能，但VC恐怕不喜欢这种交易便利与频繁报价带来的撩拨与试探。<b>像VC一样谨慎思考，给自己的投资加一个“紧箍咒”，降低操作频率，在克制内心波澜的同时或许会有不一样的收获。</b></p>\n<p><b>“神秘”的VC出资人</b></p>\n<p><b>有耐心的资金永远是少数，</b>加之VC募资规模可能高达数千万或数亿元，所以更像是“奢侈品”。它们的出资人来自哪里？</p>\n<p>风险投资可以算是美国的发明。20世纪80年代末，美国VC资金主要来源发生变化，从富有的个人和家庭明显转向退休金、社保基金、大学捐赠基金等机构投资者。我国则主要是上市公司、高净值个人、政府引导基金等。VC资金往往对于流动性要求更低，耐心更高。</p>\n<p>耶鲁大学捐赠基金前首席投资官大卫·史文森曾表示：某家风投机构是他们最赚钱的投资项目之一，为耶鲁带来的回报超过24亿美元。此外，风险投资人杜枫在著作中说：“退休基金是劳动者年轻的时候存下来，以保证退休和年老时的收益，是一种比较长期的投资，要得到超过通货膨胀的收益，就不能只限于固定存款。”美国退休基金为了分散风险，会以一小部分资金投资于VC，同时也争取拉高整体收益。</p>\n<p><b>VC思维下，如何投资？</b></p>\n<p>VC的投资思路，体现了价值投资的眼光。部分二级市场上市公司与创投公司类似，在不断涌现新的业务，进行商业创新、技术创新。此类公司的投资分析思路，往往也是看护城河、看用户、看粘性，同样需要在公司业务重大拐点发生之前及时发现，判断公司是否具有跨越式发展的潜力。</p>\n<p>此外，VC更看重的往往是10年左右的中长线行业分析思维，这也是建立在与公司内部管理层的深入了解沟通与合作的基础之上。二级市场普通投资者往往难以把握，时常会面临的恐慌情绪，部分源于对公司情况缺乏足够深入的分析与研究。举例来说，美股亚马逊股价曾经在2001年10月跌至5.51美元，自上市以来最大回撤居然达到95%，二级市场投资很难不为所动，理想化的价值投资思维往往面临各方面的考验与压力。</p>\n<p>图：1997至2021亚马逊股价（AMZN）</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fd674d156153529c7afbea859f617ecd\" tg-width=\"620\" tg-height=\"383\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>VC与公募基金相比有很多不同，比如高杠杆运作、借壳上市等风险相对更大，但投资需要“正确的认知+逆人性”，不论风险投资或二级市场都是如此。“股神”巴菲特对于市场好时候、坏时候都保持淡定态度，也是源于其资金主要来自保险浮存金，能支持进行长期持有。<b>对于普通投资者，一旦明确资金短期内无需动用，既然一样是用于长线，不妨将耐心思维、VC思维用在投资中。</b></p>","source":"lsy1619314504794","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>用VC的长线思维买基金</title>\n<style 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margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n用VC的长线思维买基金\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-06-27 09:20 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/Aa7C5BUD2hkPnnnL83ZmdA><strong>兴证全球基金</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>提起风险投资（VC），人们会想到这些传奇故事：“孙正义6分钟就决定投资阿里巴巴，狂赚2500多倍；彼得·蒂尔给Facebook投了50万美元，8年后变成约11亿美元；阿瑟·洛克给苹果投了约6万美元，3年后上涨为约1400万美元……”\n\n有趣的是，VC往往会被认为是“一夜暴富”，实际上行业头部效应非常明显，也必须拥有投资的珍贵品质——耐心；在外人看来，VC所在的一级市场缺少流动性，但这在VC眼中或许...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/Aa7C5BUD2hkPnnnL83ZmdA\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/15e20574f8fb568333181d61bb200086","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/Aa7C5BUD2hkPnnnL83ZmdA","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1137416078","content_text":"提起风险投资（VC），人们会想到这些传奇故事：“孙正义6分钟就决定投资阿里巴巴，狂赚2500多倍；彼得·蒂尔给Facebook投了50万美元，8年后变成约11亿美元；阿瑟·洛克给苹果投了约6万美元，3年后上涨为约1400万美元……”\n\n有趣的是，VC往往会被认为是“一夜暴富”，实际上行业头部效应非常明显，也必须拥有投资的珍贵品质——耐心；在外人看来，VC所在的一级市场缺少流动性，但这在VC眼中或许反而是优势。\n风险投资人黄海指出：风险投资体现了“买入是逻辑，卖出是艺术”，普通人也能借鉴VC的思维做投资。此话怎讲？\n从VC视角，看风险与收益\n风险投资也叫创业投资，有“高风险、高回报”的特点，毕竟大多数创业企业可能都会失败，极少数成功案例可以为失败案例买单。统计显示，美国VC行业整体年化收益约为16.4%，不过VC的头部效应、品牌效应非常明显。（美国风险投资协会数据，1987-2007区间年化收益率）\nVC是如何“悄悄变富，惊艳世人”的？风险投资家并非不惧风险的勇士，优秀的VC会通过惊人的耐心、准确的判断斩获更高胜率。红杉资本是全球最著名的VC之一，在美国投资了苹果、思科、谷歌、领英、WhatsApp等公司，据统计其平均持股时间达7年。\n图：红杉等基金的历史回报\n\n数据来源：《风投》，哈佛大学教授汤姆·尼古拉斯著。圆圈大小与规模大小成正比。\n为什么VC这么有耐心？答案很简单：不得不如此。参与一级市场的VC，往往不能随时退出，VC出资人也需要“被迫”长期持有。与一级市场相比，二级市场流动性更好，你能获得每天，甚至实时报价，但反过来看，“这是否也是二级市场的缺点呢？”\n正所谓“心急吃不了热豆腐”，VC一定深有体会。一方面，由于一级市场缺乏流动性，每次交易可能需要等很多年。另一方面，早期阶段的公司，不存在实时报价，估值变化也可能非常剧烈。VC能抵挡“赚快钱”的诱惑，恰恰是因为缺少这个途径。\n“募、投、管、退”四个步骤是VC的职责，其中最重要的环节就是“退”。判断是退出还是继续加码，是非常考验VC能力的事情。比如张一鸣的“九九房”创业失败了，但“一个华丽转身”打造出今日头条，所以重要的还是回归对商业与经营者的复杂判断。\n\n时有风吹幡动，非风动，非幡动，实乃心动——虽然二级市场提供了频繁交易的可能，但VC恐怕不喜欢这种交易便利与频繁报价带来的撩拨与试探。像VC一样谨慎思考，给自己的投资加一个“紧箍咒”，降低操作频率，在克制内心波澜的同时或许会有不一样的收获。\n“神秘”的VC出资人\n有耐心的资金永远是少数，加之VC募资规模可能高达数千万或数亿元，所以更像是“奢侈品”。它们的出资人来自哪里？\n风险投资可以算是美国的发明。20世纪80年代末，美国VC资金主要来源发生变化，从富有的个人和家庭明显转向退休金、社保基金、大学捐赠基金等机构投资者。我国则主要是上市公司、高净值个人、政府引导基金等。VC资金往往对于流动性要求更低，耐心更高。\n耶鲁大学捐赠基金前首席投资官大卫·史文森曾表示：某家风投机构是他们最赚钱的投资项目之一，为耶鲁带来的回报超过24亿美元。此外，风险投资人杜枫在著作中说：“退休基金是劳动者年轻的时候存下来，以保证退休和年老时的收益，是一种比较长期的投资，要得到超过通货膨胀的收益，就不能只限于固定存款。”美国退休基金为了分散风险，会以一小部分资金投资于VC，同时也争取拉高整体收益。\nVC思维下，如何投资？\nVC的投资思路，体现了价值投资的眼光。部分二级市场上市公司与创投公司类似，在不断涌现新的业务，进行商业创新、技术创新。此类公司的投资分析思路，往往也是看护城河、看用户、看粘性，同样需要在公司业务重大拐点发生之前及时发现，判断公司是否具有跨越式发展的潜力。\n此外，VC更看重的往往是10年左右的中长线行业分析思维，这也是建立在与公司内部管理层的深入了解沟通与合作的基础之上。二级市场普通投资者往往难以把握，时常会面临的恐慌情绪，部分源于对公司情况缺乏足够深入的分析与研究。举例来说，美股亚马逊股价曾经在2001年10月跌至5.51美元，自上市以来最大回撤居然达到95%，二级市场投资很难不为所动，理想化的价值投资思维往往面临各方面的考验与压力。\n图：1997至2021亚马逊股价（AMZN）\n\nVC与公募基金相比有很多不同，比如高杠杆运作、借壳上市等风险相对更大，但投资需要“正确的认知+逆人性”，不论风险投资或二级市场都是如此。“股神”巴菲特对于市场好时候、坏时候都保持淡定态度，也是源于其资金主要来自保险浮存金，能支持进行长期持有。对于普通投资者，一旦明确资金短期内无需动用，既然一样是用于长线，不妨将耐心思维、VC思维用在投资中。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":324,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":121680037,"gmtCreate":1624461650929,"gmtModify":1631891732476,"author":{"id":"3569028586400878","authorId":"3569028586400878","name":"Miaw","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bd318611f16b0eb6de098c8b733c85fd","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3569028586400878","idStr":"3569028586400878"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"[强]&nbsp;","listText":"[强]&nbsp;","text":"[强]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/121680037","repostId":"1146565871","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1146565871","pubTimestamp":1624455991,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1146565871?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-23 21:46","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"美国6月Markit制造业PMI创纪录，服务业PMI不及预期","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1146565871","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"美国6月Markit制造业PMI初值62.6，高于预期的61.5以及前值62.1。","content":"<p>金融数据供应商IHS&nbsp;<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MRKT\">Markit</a>周三公布了美国6月的制造业和服务业PMI数据，其中制造业PMI初值高于预期，创2007年有纪录以来新高，同期公布的服务业PMI初值不及预期，有所下滑，但仍处于历史高位。</p>\n<p>根据数据，美国6月Markit制造业PMI初值62.6，高于预期的61.5以及前值62.1，创下2007年有纪录以来的最高水平。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2ef76bb72997ac135dfb8e759ab6d349\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"330\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>同期公布的Markit美国服务业PMI指数6月初值录得64.8，不及预期的70和5月前值70.4，不过仍处于较高水平。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6c905d7c20d8a9a5d235949b994e86ac\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"334\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>在服务业数据的影响之下，Markit美国综合PMI的6月初值录得63.9，较5月的68.7明显下降。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1a3fe8e2812d33165ecf56ccc7bb4f43\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"330\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>对于本月的经济状况，IHS Markit在数据报告当中指出，就业问题在6月仍然很普遍，因为有专家表示，目前仍难以为现有职位空缺寻找有经验的应聘者。此外，6月份的价格压力仍然维持高位。投入品价格上涨速度略有放缓，但仍是历史上第二快。制造业的关注点仍在于原材料和燃料成本的快速增长，而服务业的关注点则是为吸引工人而提出的的高工资，以及更高的运输费用和燃料成本。</p>\n<p>IHS Markit的首席商业经济学家Chris Williamson在数据公布之后表示，6月的PMI初值表明，美国经济当月取得了令人印象深刻的增长。虽然制造业和服务业的产出增长和新订单流入都出现了回落，但出现这种状况的原因是产能受限使得企业应对需求的能力受到限制，而非经济出现降温。</p>\n<p>不过他也表示，虽然价格水平从5月的历史高位出现下滑，但经济目前仍然非常热。商品和服务的价格仍在急升，创纪录的供应短缺正在恶化而非出现改善，企业正在努力填补空缺，而制造业库存的消耗速度也令人担忧，因为企业正在努力满足市场需求。</p>\n<p>此外Chris Williamson还指出，虽然二季度的经济增速或将触及峰值，但后续的通胀峰值则可能远高于此。</p>","source":"highlight_wallstreetcn","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>美国6月Markit制造业PMI创纪录，服务业PMI不及预期</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n美国6月Markit制造业PMI创纪录，服务业PMI不及预期\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-06-23 21:46 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3633694><strong>华尔街见闻</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>金融数据供应商IHS Markit周三公布了美国6月的制造业和服务业PMI数据，其中制造业PMI初值高于预期，创2007年有纪录以来新高，同期公布的服务业PMI初值不及预期，有所下滑，但仍处于历史高位。\n根据数据，美国6月Markit制造业PMI初值62.6，高于预期的61.5以及前值62.1，创下2007年有纪录以来的最高水平。\n\n同期公布的Markit美国服务业PMI指数6月初值录得64.8，...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3633694\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/135fb5b6f21d9ee05edcb64a0736f62f","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3633694","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/cc96873d3d23ee6ac10685520df9c100","article_id":"1146565871","content_text":"金融数据供应商IHS Markit周三公布了美国6月的制造业和服务业PMI数据，其中制造业PMI初值高于预期，创2007年有纪录以来新高，同期公布的服务业PMI初值不及预期，有所下滑，但仍处于历史高位。\n根据数据，美国6月Markit制造业PMI初值62.6，高于预期的61.5以及前值62.1，创下2007年有纪录以来的最高水平。\n\n同期公布的Markit美国服务业PMI指数6月初值录得64.8，不及预期的70和5月前值70.4，不过仍处于较高水平。\n\n在服务业数据的影响之下，Markit美国综合PMI的6月初值录得63.9，较5月的68.7明显下降。\n\n对于本月的经济状况，IHS Markit在数据报告当中指出，就业问题在6月仍然很普遍，因为有专家表示，目前仍难以为现有职位空缺寻找有经验的应聘者。此外，6月份的价格压力仍然维持高位。投入品价格上涨速度略有放缓，但仍是历史上第二快。制造业的关注点仍在于原材料和燃料成本的快速增长，而服务业的关注点则是为吸引工人而提出的的高工资，以及更高的运输费用和燃料成本。\nIHS Markit的首席商业经济学家Chris Williamson在数据公布之后表示，6月的PMI初值表明，美国经济当月取得了令人印象深刻的增长。虽然制造业和服务业的产出增长和新订单流入都出现了回落，但出现这种状况的原因是产能受限使得企业应对需求的能力受到限制，而非经济出现降温。\n不过他也表示，虽然价格水平从5月的历史高位出现下滑，但经济目前仍然非常热。商品和服务的价格仍在急升，创纪录的供应短缺正在恶化而非出现改善，企业正在努力填补空缺，而制造业库存的消耗速度也令人担忧，因为企业正在努力满足市场需求。\n此外Chris Williamson还指出，虽然二季度的经济增速或将触及峰值，但后续的通胀峰值则可能远高于此。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":846,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":120047955,"gmtCreate":1624290040177,"gmtModify":1631891732480,"author":{"id":"3569028586400878","authorId":"3569028586400878","name":"Miaw","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bd318611f16b0eb6de098c8b733c85fd","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3569028586400878","idStr":"3569028586400878"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"有吗？","listText":"有吗？","text":"有吗？","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/120047955","repostId":"2145270712","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":747,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":322807517,"gmtCreate":1615790814439,"gmtModify":1703492981171,"author":{"id":"3569028586400878","authorId":"3569028586400878","name":"Miaw","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bd318611f16b0eb6de098c8b733c85fd","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3569028586400878","authorIdStr":"3569028586400878"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"There is an article and expert said there is no direct relationship between 10 years treasury bonds yields versus stock market trending&nbsp;","listText":"There is an article and expert said there is no direct relationship between 10 years treasury bonds yields versus stock market trending&nbsp;","text":"There is an article and expert said there is no direct relationship between 10 years treasury bonds yields versus stock market trending","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":14,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/322807517","repostId":"1147867743","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":202,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3527664028657721","authorId":"3527664028657721","name":"Zmhell","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3527664028657721","authorIdStr":"3527664028657721"},"content":"瞎子都看得到十年利率和股市的联系，难道非要x*y=1才叫负相关？十年利率和科技股就是股市里的完美负相关。公共事业金融股若正相关","text":"瞎子都看得到十年利率和股市的联系，难道非要x*y=1才叫负相关？十年利率和科技股就是股市里的完美负相关。公共事业金融股若正相关","html":"瞎子都看得到十年利率和股市的联系，难道非要x*y=1才叫负相关？十年利率和科技股就是股市里的完美负相关。公共事业金融股若正相关"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":324344983,"gmtCreate":1615969260342,"gmtModify":1703495659486,"author":{"id":"3569028586400878","authorId":"3569028586400878","name":"Miaw","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bd318611f16b0eb6de098c8b733c85fd","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3569028586400878","authorIdStr":"3569028586400878"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"AAPL also wanna join green energy&nbsp;[得意]&nbsp;","listText":"AAPL also wanna join green energy&nbsp;[得意]&nbsp;","text":"AAPL also wanna join green energy [得意]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":8,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/324344983","repostId":"1161939004","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1161939004","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据，旨在帮助投资者理解世界，做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1615967415,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1161939004?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-03-17 15:50","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"苹果发行47亿美元绿色债券以建设1.2GW清洁能源","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1161939004","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"据报道，苹果发行47亿美元绿色债券以投资建设1.2GW的清洁能源。","content":"<p>据报道，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">苹果</a>发行47亿美元绿色债券以投资建设1.2GW的清洁能源。</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>苹果发行47亿美元绿色债券以建设1.2GW清洁能源</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n苹果发行47亿美元绿色债券以建设1.2GW清洁能源\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2021-03-17 15:50</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>据报道，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">苹果</a>发行47亿美元绿色债券以投资建设1.2GW的清洁能源。</p>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/750c39c2aeb988440df2a381041a0bf6","relate_stocks":{"AAPL":"苹果"},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1161939004","content_text":"据报道，苹果发行47亿美元绿色债券以投资建设1.2GW的清洁能源。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":243,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":326548335,"gmtCreate":1615690394227,"gmtModify":1703492106468,"author":{"id":"3569028586400878","authorId":"3569028586400878","name":"Miaw","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bd318611f16b0eb6de098c8b733c85fd","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3569028586400878","authorIdStr":"3569028586400878"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Will ppl really buy in?&nbsp;","listText":"Will ppl really buy in?&nbsp;","text":"Will ppl really buy in?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":4,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/326548335","repostId":"2119499365","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2119499365","pubTimestamp":1615687123,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2119499365?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-03-14 09:58","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"怪兽充电想上市，共享充电宝是闷声发大财还是给商户打工","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2119499365","media":"智通财经网","summary":"美东时间3月12日美股盘后，怪兽充电正式向美国证券交易委员会(SEC)递交招股文件，拟在纳斯达克挂牌上市。","content":"<p><b>共享经济第一股”要诞生了?</b></p><p>美东时间3月12日美股盘后，怪兽充电正式向美国证券交易委员会(SEC)递交招股文件，拟在纳斯达克挂牌上市。这是继2020年7月小电科技接受创业板上市辅导之后，共享充电宝领域又一家冲击IPO的企业。</p><p>共享充电宝行业于2014年兴起，在2017年高速发展，经过多轮洗牌后，2019年行业“三电一兽”(来电科技、街电科技、小电科技、怪兽充电)的市场格局基本形成，2020年，“搅局者”美团充电宝业务的再次重启，则为这个市场增添了一些变数。而早在2018年下半年，多家选手便已纷纷宣布实现盈利，被行业调侃为“闷声发大财”。</p><p>如今，怪兽充电招股书披露，也揭开了这个行业盈利真相的最后面纱。</p><p>招股书显示，怪兽充电2019年营收为20.22亿元，2020年营收达28.09亿元，同比增长38.9%。净利润方面，2019年，怪兽充电净利润为1.67亿元，净利率为8.2%，2020年，怪兽充电净利润为7542.7万元，同比下降55.43%，净利率为2.7%。近两年，怪兽充电营收高速增长的同时，虽然保持着盈利，但利润是越来越薄。</p><p>自2016年“共享元年”后，共享经济经过野蛮发展后逐渐降温，共享充电宝经过大浪淘沙，竟然领先网约车，率先进入争夺“共享经济第一股”的新阶段。曾在2017年被王思聪评价为“要是能成我吃X，立帖为证”的共享充电宝模式，尽管屡受质疑，但从怪兽充电招股书公布的数据看，共享充电宝是一门赚钱的生意。至于这门生意究竟能否长久持续，或许可以通过这份招股书一探究竟。</p><p><b>营收越来越高，利润越来越薄</b></p><p>怪兽充电是“三电一兽”中最晚诞生的，成立于共享充电宝行业蓬勃发展的2017年，也是这一年，行业创造了40天融资11笔的历史。怪兽充电算得上后来者居上，当年3月成立，在9个月内迅速完成了天使轮、A轮、B轮三轮超3亿元融资。</p><p>据艾瑞咨询相关报告，中国共享充电宝行业历史虽短，但已经有几个相对较大的参与者，行业的前四名参与者在2020年的总收入占该行业总收入的83.1%，而怪兽充电在前四名中排名第一，在收入维度上，算得上是中国最大的共享充电宝服务提供商。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ebfac2e1cdeba57491b3850cb011d16a\" tg-width=\"618\" tg-height=\"196\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>按总收入计，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CHL\">中国移动</a>设备充电服务市场当前的竞争格局</p><p>根据招股书，2019、2020年，怪兽充电的营收分别为20.22亿元、28.09亿元，净利润分别为1.67亿元、7542.7万元。</p><p>其中2020年营收同比增长38.9%，招股书指出，这是由于POI(商户点位)数量增加、移动设备充电的收入增长。2020年一年，怪兽充电合作的点位增加了7.6万，增加到66.4万个，可用移动电源增加了81.8万个，增至536.08万个。</p><p>截至2020年9月30日，怪兽充电在中国拥有超过63万个POI网络，并且自成立以来已累积了2亿多注册用户。</p><p>从营收构成看，共享充电宝收入是绝对的大头。怪兽充电的收入主要是移动设备充电业务、移动电源销售以及其他收入三部分，但高度依赖移动设备充电业务即共享充电宝，近两年这部分的收入为19.24亿元、27.12亿元，占总收入的比例分别为95.2%、96.5%。还有一小部分来自充电宝销售，近两年的收入规模分别为7044.8万元、7759.8万元，占比只有3.5%、2.8%。剩下的其他收入以广告收入为主，就更少了，占比在1%左右。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0d725910aeb8998630d0099bd0c19ab2\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"616\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>也因为此，2020年初面对疫情，怪兽充电大受打击，在2020年Q1还出现了亏损的情况。根据招股书，怪兽充电2020Q1净亏损1.37亿元，而上年同期净利润为1386.7万元。</p><p>共享充电宝行业是一个高毛利的行业，我们来看看为什么怪兽充电在过去两年里实现了营收的大幅增长，并且保持盈利，净利润却没有保持正向的增长。</p><p>在以共享充电宝的租金收入为主要来源的共享充电宝行业，主战场则一直在于点位的抢夺。而怪兽充电净利润大幅下降，也与疫情之下点位的变化有密切的联系。</p><p>一方面，疫情之下线下停摆导致收入降低。根据招股书，在疫情期间，怪兽充电许多商户点位合作伙伴暂时或永久关闭运营，从而对怪兽POI覆盖范围和财务业绩造成负面影响，2020年继Q1净亏损1.37亿元后，上半年依然保持亏损状态，而2019上半年净利润为6495万元。</p><p>而另一方面，在日趋激烈的行业竞争中，怪兽充电必须要付出巨大的成本，尤其是营业成本和营销费用几乎是在翻倍的增长。在支出中增长最高的营销费用，主要是用于对合作伙伴的激励费用，包括佣金和入场费以及向业务开发人员支付的报酬。这笔费用在过去两年分别为13.62亿元、21.21亿元，增长率为55.87%。</p><p>怪兽充电的共享充电宝业务有直营模式和代理商模式两种模式。直营模式是和点位合作伙伴进行协商，向其支付激励费用，包括入场费和佣金。后一种模式下，怪兽充电可以利用他们的本地业务网络来进行业务扩张，他们需要购置机柜，同时获得分成。</p><p>在总激励费用中，怪兽充电的入场费则从2019年的1.06亿元增至2020年的3.8亿元，增长了约260%。支付给合作伙伴的佣金从2019年的8.22亿元增加45.5%至2020年的11.96亿元，佣金费率相对稳定，分别为42.7%和44.1%。</p><p>经历了疫情之后，从怪兽充电的入场费和佣金支出水涨船高可以窥见，整个行业的竞争越来越激烈，内卷越来越严重。</p><p><b>怪兽接下来要如何充电?</b></p><p>从怪兽充电招股书公布的股权架构来看，其管理层依旧对公司拥有控制权。而在股东中，阿里为第一大股东，持股16.5%。此外，高瓴持股11.7%，顺为持股8.8%，软银亚洲持股7.7%，小米和新天域均持股7.5%，云九和CMC分别持股5.8%和5.4%。</p><p>同时，值得注意的是，据招股书披露，在上市前，怪兽充电完成了超2亿美元的D轮融资，由阿里、CMC领投，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CG\">凯雷</a>、高瓴、软银亚洲跟投。</p><p>怪兽充电得以汇集诸多明星投资机构，是因为共享充电宝行业确实有着不小的市场空间。根据艾瑞咨询报告，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00941\">中国移动</a>设备充电服务市场规模将从2020年的90亿元增长到2028年的1063亿元，复合年增长率为36.2%。</p><p>与此同时，行业头部几家选手积累了大量的用户数量。除了怪兽充电用户突破2亿外，其他几家头部选手的官方数据显示，小电已经进入了1600多所城市，用户量近2亿;来电截至2020年10月注册用户超2亿;街电截至2020年11月注册用户量已近3亿。</p><p>一二线城市共享充电宝行业竞争已经非常激烈，但这之外的下沉市场依然大有可为。艾瑞咨询此前发布的《2020年共享充电宝行业分析报告》显示，共享充电宝整体线下消费场景渗透率在20%-30%之间，点位的布局尚未饱和，尤其是三四线城市还有较大的开发空间。</p><p>但不容忽视的是，这个行业盈利模式相对单一，且成本不断增高，在这个节点上选择上市争夺“共享经济第一股”，怪兽充电有点迫不及待的意味。</p><p>截至2020年12月底，怪兽充电的现金及现金等价物、有限制用途的资金以及短期投资金额分别为12.52亿元、5100.8万元、1.71亿元。尽管账面资金不少，但招股书中也提到了几点风险因素，比如：行业竞争激烈，企业在定价时面临压力，进而在扩大POI覆盖范围时便会遇阻，导致失去市场份额。</p><p>不同场景下，充电宝的使用费用定价不同已经成为行业普遍现象，怪兽充电自然也是如此。有网友曾因为使用怪兽充电不足两小时收费8元吐槽“怪兽充电改名吞金兽充电了?”</p><p>同时，如果竞争对手提供了更有优惠的激励措施，便会倒逼怪兽充电提升对合作伙伴的激励措施，这可能会损害未来的盈利能力。</p><p>即使是头部选手，为了获得更多的市场份额，也不得不继续在争夺商户点位、招募代理商方面加大投入。进入2021年，怪兽充电先后宣布与深圳老碗会、巴邑火锅、美宜佳、邻几便利店等达成合作，不断扩大KA(Key Account关键客户)网络，想必未来在入场费、佣金方面的投入会持续加大。</p><p>此外，怪兽充电作为一个仅仅成立4年的新公司，是否能够一直维持如今的增长率还是一个未知数，而未来，手机电池续航寿命的延长或快充技术的发展，或将导致用户对共享充电宝的刚需性减弱，同时也可能会对运营商提高价格产生压力。</p><p>不可否认，共享充电宝凭借着其服务模式相对较轻，准入门槛较低，容易复制等特点吸引了大量选手。但同时，这个行业还存在着诸多不确定性，行业选手不能仅仅关注当前的营收增幅、市场占有率，而应当深耕用户，聚焦服务，才能走得更长远。</p>","source":"highlight_zhitongcaijin","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>怪兽充电想上市，共享充电宝是闷声发大财还是给商户打工</title>\n<style 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margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n怪兽充电想上市，共享充电宝是闷声发大财还是给商户打工\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-03-14 09:58 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/426871.html><strong>智通财经网</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>共享经济第一股”要诞生了?美东时间3月12日美股盘后，怪兽充电正式向美国证券交易委员会(SEC)递交招股文件，拟在纳斯达克挂牌上市。这是继2020年7月小电科技接受创业板上市辅导之后，共享充电宝领域又一家冲击IPO的企业。共享充电宝行业于2014年兴起，在2017年高速发展，经过多轮洗牌后，2019年行业“三电一兽”(来电科技、街电科技、小电科技、怪兽充电)的市场格局基本形成，2020年，“搅局者...</p>\n\n<a href=\"http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/426871.html\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/03c6d463ef199d89c203e230e026de7f","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/426871.html","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/6ca2dcdccfa2217fb20a0351f4efe814","article_id":"2119499365","content_text":"共享经济第一股”要诞生了?美东时间3月12日美股盘后，怪兽充电正式向美国证券交易委员会(SEC)递交招股文件，拟在纳斯达克挂牌上市。这是继2020年7月小电科技接受创业板上市辅导之后，共享充电宝领域又一家冲击IPO的企业。共享充电宝行业于2014年兴起，在2017年高速发展，经过多轮洗牌后，2019年行业“三电一兽”(来电科技、街电科技、小电科技、怪兽充电)的市场格局基本形成，2020年，“搅局者”美团充电宝业务的再次重启，则为这个市场增添了一些变数。而早在2018年下半年，多家选手便已纷纷宣布实现盈利，被行业调侃为“闷声发大财”。如今，怪兽充电招股书披露，也揭开了这个行业盈利真相的最后面纱。招股书显示，怪兽充电2019年营收为20.22亿元，2020年营收达28.09亿元，同比增长38.9%。净利润方面，2019年，怪兽充电净利润为1.67亿元，净利率为8.2%，2020年，怪兽充电净利润为7542.7万元，同比下降55.43%，净利率为2.7%。近两年，怪兽充电营收高速增长的同时，虽然保持着盈利，但利润是越来越薄。自2016年“共享元年”后，共享经济经过野蛮发展后逐渐降温，共享充电宝经过大浪淘沙，竟然领先网约车，率先进入争夺“共享经济第一股”的新阶段。曾在2017年被王思聪评价为“要是能成我吃X，立帖为证”的共享充电宝模式，尽管屡受质疑，但从怪兽充电招股书公布的数据看，共享充电宝是一门赚钱的生意。至于这门生意究竟能否长久持续，或许可以通过这份招股书一探究竟。营收越来越高，利润越来越薄怪兽充电是“三电一兽”中最晚诞生的，成立于共享充电宝行业蓬勃发展的2017年，也是这一年，行业创造了40天融资11笔的历史。怪兽充电算得上后来者居上，当年3月成立，在9个月内迅速完成了天使轮、A轮、B轮三轮超3亿元融资。据艾瑞咨询相关报告，中国共享充电宝行业历史虽短，但已经有几个相对较大的参与者，行业的前四名参与者在2020年的总收入占该行业总收入的83.1%，而怪兽充电在前四名中排名第一，在收入维度上，算得上是中国最大的共享充电宝服务提供商。按总收入计，中国移动设备充电服务市场当前的竞争格局根据招股书，2019、2020年，怪兽充电的营收分别为20.22亿元、28.09亿元，净利润分别为1.67亿元、7542.7万元。其中2020年营收同比增长38.9%，招股书指出，这是由于POI(商户点位)数量增加、移动设备充电的收入增长。2020年一年，怪兽充电合作的点位增加了7.6万，增加到66.4万个，可用移动电源增加了81.8万个，增至536.08万个。截至2020年9月30日，怪兽充电在中国拥有超过63万个POI网络，并且自成立以来已累积了2亿多注册用户。从营收构成看，共享充电宝收入是绝对的大头。怪兽充电的收入主要是移动设备充电业务、移动电源销售以及其他收入三部分，但高度依赖移动设备充电业务即共享充电宝，近两年这部分的收入为19.24亿元、27.12亿元，占总收入的比例分别为95.2%、96.5%。还有一小部分来自充电宝销售，近两年的收入规模分别为7044.8万元、7759.8万元，占比只有3.5%、2.8%。剩下的其他收入以广告收入为主，就更少了，占比在1%左右。也因为此，2020年初面对疫情，怪兽充电大受打击，在2020年Q1还出现了亏损的情况。根据招股书，怪兽充电2020Q1净亏损1.37亿元，而上年同期净利润为1386.7万元。共享充电宝行业是一个高毛利的行业，我们来看看为什么怪兽充电在过去两年里实现了营收的大幅增长，并且保持盈利，净利润却没有保持正向的增长。在以共享充电宝的租金收入为主要来源的共享充电宝行业，主战场则一直在于点位的抢夺。而怪兽充电净利润大幅下降，也与疫情之下点位的变化有密切的联系。一方面，疫情之下线下停摆导致收入降低。根据招股书，在疫情期间，怪兽充电许多商户点位合作伙伴暂时或永久关闭运营，从而对怪兽POI覆盖范围和财务业绩造成负面影响，2020年继Q1净亏损1.37亿元后，上半年依然保持亏损状态，而2019上半年净利润为6495万元。而另一方面，在日趋激烈的行业竞争中，怪兽充电必须要付出巨大的成本，尤其是营业成本和营销费用几乎是在翻倍的增长。在支出中增长最高的营销费用，主要是用于对合作伙伴的激励费用，包括佣金和入场费以及向业务开发人员支付的报酬。这笔费用在过去两年分别为13.62亿元、21.21亿元，增长率为55.87%。怪兽充电的共享充电宝业务有直营模式和代理商模式两种模式。直营模式是和点位合作伙伴进行协商，向其支付激励费用，包括入场费和佣金。后一种模式下，怪兽充电可以利用他们的本地业务网络来进行业务扩张，他们需要购置机柜，同时获得分成。在总激励费用中，怪兽充电的入场费则从2019年的1.06亿元增至2020年的3.8亿元，增长了约260%。支付给合作伙伴的佣金从2019年的8.22亿元增加45.5%至2020年的11.96亿元，佣金费率相对稳定，分别为42.7%和44.1%。经历了疫情之后，从怪兽充电的入场费和佣金支出水涨船高可以窥见，整个行业的竞争越来越激烈，内卷越来越严重。怪兽接下来要如何充电?从怪兽充电招股书公布的股权架构来看，其管理层依旧对公司拥有控制权。而在股东中，阿里为第一大股东，持股16.5%。此外，高瓴持股11.7%，顺为持股8.8%，软银亚洲持股7.7%，小米和新天域均持股7.5%，云九和CMC分别持股5.8%和5.4%。同时，值得注意的是，据招股书披露，在上市前，怪兽充电完成了超2亿美元的D轮融资，由阿里、CMC领投，凯雷、高瓴、软银亚洲跟投。怪兽充电得以汇集诸多明星投资机构，是因为共享充电宝行业确实有着不小的市场空间。根据艾瑞咨询报告，中国移动设备充电服务市场规模将从2020年的90亿元增长到2028年的1063亿元，复合年增长率为36.2%。与此同时，行业头部几家选手积累了大量的用户数量。除了怪兽充电用户突破2亿外，其他几家头部选手的官方数据显示，小电已经进入了1600多所城市，用户量近2亿;来电截至2020年10月注册用户超2亿;街电截至2020年11月注册用户量已近3亿。一二线城市共享充电宝行业竞争已经非常激烈，但这之外的下沉市场依然大有可为。艾瑞咨询此前发布的《2020年共享充电宝行业分析报告》显示，共享充电宝整体线下消费场景渗透率在20%-30%之间，点位的布局尚未饱和，尤其是三四线城市还有较大的开发空间。但不容忽视的是，这个行业盈利模式相对单一，且成本不断增高，在这个节点上选择上市争夺“共享经济第一股”，怪兽充电有点迫不及待的意味。截至2020年12月底，怪兽充电的现金及现金等价物、有限制用途的资金以及短期投资金额分别为12.52亿元、5100.8万元、1.71亿元。尽管账面资金不少，但招股书中也提到了几点风险因素，比如：行业竞争激烈，企业在定价时面临压力，进而在扩大POI覆盖范围时便会遇阻，导致失去市场份额。不同场景下，充电宝的使用费用定价不同已经成为行业普遍现象，怪兽充电自然也是如此。有网友曾因为使用怪兽充电不足两小时收费8元吐槽“怪兽充电改名吞金兽充电了?”同时，如果竞争对手提供了更有优惠的激励措施，便会倒逼怪兽充电提升对合作伙伴的激励措施，这可能会损害未来的盈利能力。即使是头部选手，为了获得更多的市场份额，也不得不继续在争夺商户点位、招募代理商方面加大投入。进入2021年，怪兽充电先后宣布与深圳老碗会、巴邑火锅、美宜佳、邻几便利店等达成合作，不断扩大KA(Key Account关键客户)网络，想必未来在入场费、佣金方面的投入会持续加大。此外，怪兽充电作为一个仅仅成立4年的新公司，是否能够一直维持如今的增长率还是一个未知数，而未来，手机电池续航寿命的延长或快充技术的发展，或将导致用户对共享充电宝的刚需性减弱，同时也可能会对运营商提高价格产生压力。不可否认，共享充电宝凭借着其服务模式相对较轻，准入门槛较低，容易复制等特点吸引了大量选手。但同时，这个行业还存在着诸多不确定性，行业选手不能仅仅关注当前的营收增幅、市场占有率，而应当深耕用户，聚焦服务，才能走得更长远。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":124,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":186674772,"gmtCreate":1623498088096,"gmtModify":1634032353679,"author":{"id":"3569028586400878","authorId":"3569028586400878","name":"Miaw","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bd318611f16b0eb6de098c8b733c85fd","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3569028586400878","authorIdStr":"3569028586400878"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"真刀假刀？","listText":"真刀假刀？","text":"真刀假刀？","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":5,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/186674772","repostId":"1102453565","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":335,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":362288050,"gmtCreate":1614642564570,"gmtModify":1703479182627,"author":{"id":"3569028586400878","authorId":"3569028586400878","name":"Miaw","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bd318611f16b0eb6de098c8b733c85fd","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3569028586400878","authorIdStr":"3569028586400878"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Expected economy recovery soon and everything back to normal?&nbsp;[疑问]&nbsp;","listText":"Expected economy recovery soon and everything back to normal?&nbsp;[疑问]&nbsp;","text":"Expected economy recovery soon and everything back to normal? [疑问]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":1,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/362288050","repostId":"2116582593","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":479,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":114333606,"gmtCreate":1623048574305,"gmtModify":1634095859093,"author":{"id":"3569028586400878","authorId":"3569028586400878","name":"Miaw","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bd318611f16b0eb6de098c8b733c85fd","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3569028586400878","authorIdStr":"3569028586400878"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"好滴，我就随波逐流","listText":"好滴，我就随波逐流","text":"好滴，我就随波逐流","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":4,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/114333606","repostId":"1120446587","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1120446587","pubTimestamp":1623043231,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1120446587?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-07 13:20","market":"sh","language":"zh","title":"6月流动性前瞻：最宽松已过，波动率上升","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1120446587","media":"雪涛宏观笔记","summary":"5月流动性超预期宽松，低超储率和宽松流动性共存，主要原因是超储率评估流动性的传统框架不够完善，需要纳入流动性需求和非银行为考量。展望6月，流动性需求明显增加，低超储率意味着大概率出现流动性缺口。当前金","content":"<blockquote>\n 5月流动性超预期宽松，低超储率和宽松流动性共存，主要原因是超储率评估流动性的传统框架不够完善，需要纳入流动性需求和非银行为考量。展望6月，流动性需求明显增加，低超储率意味着大概率出现流动性缺口。当前金融稳定在货币政策目标中享有较高权重，预计央行将加大投放力度，流动性价格中枢基本稳定或小幅上移，资金面波动加大。稳定窗口期内出现资金缺口意味着流动性最宽松的阶段将告一段落。\n</blockquote>\n<p>5月银行间流动性整体维持宽松，全月DR007中枢低于政策利率8BP，与4月基本持平；1年期AAA同业存单利率中枢低于政策利率7BP，较4月回落10BP。5月流动性超预期宽松，很大程度上得益于地方债发行缓慢，但估算5月底超储率已经降至0.9%左右，出现了低超储率和宽松流动性共存的局面。究其原因，主要是超储率评估流动性的传统框架不够完善（并不是不对），需要纳入流动性需求和非银行为等因素综合考量。</p>\n<p>展望6月，多方面因素推动流动性需求明显增加，低超储率（低流动性供给）意味着大概率出现流动性缺口。考虑到当前金融稳定在货币政策目标中享有较高权重，预计央行后续将加大公开市场投放力度，流动性价格中枢基本稳定或小幅上移，资金面波动可能有所加大。在稳定窗口期内出现资金缺口，意味着流动性最宽松的阶段将告一段落。</p>\n<p><b>一、5月低超储率和宽松流动性共存——超储率评估流动性的合理性和不足</b></p>\n<p><b>3月1日至今，央行连续3个月公开市场零投放，银行超储率逐渐走低。</b>估算超储率3月1.5%、4月1.2%，均高于近年同期水平（20年除外），对应无流动性缺口，央行零投放不影响流动性宽松。但5月的情况有所不同，估算超储率可能已经降至0.9%左右，从历史同期看属于较低水平；从去年经验看，非季末月份超储率处于1.1%附近时流动性已经是紧平衡状态，<b>这与5月流动性整体偏松的现实不太相符。</b></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/03f65100dad6dabf39d3b494af0ecdfd\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"620\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p><b>如何理解近期超储率与流动性的联动弱化？我们给出三点思考：</b></p>\n<p><b>第一，银行作为流动性供给的主要来源，参考超储率评估流动性在多数情况下是合理的。</b>将超储率进行HP滤波，将周期项做季节性调整，可见超储率的周期性变化与央行扩表速度明显负相关。历史上我国央行扩表加快指向货币收紧、减慢指向货币宽松（近年稍有变化），可见超储率可以准确反映货币政策取向。2016年以来，由于基础货币投放渠道的系统性变化，央行对货币市场利率的控制力逐渐提高，超储率与流动性的相关性进一步强化。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6893857a53945d7d801691ad8c0520df\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"579\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a6307ccdcd37511ee31bcfcf10b6e919\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"581\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p><b>第二，银行合意超储率长期趋于回落，但近年回落速度明显放缓，不是造成近期低超储率和宽松流动性共存的主要原因。</b>HP滤波后可见超储率的趋势项长期趋于回落，这与支付体系现代化缩短资金清算占用时间、融资渠道拓展降低预防性需求、银行流动性管理和精细化程度提高等有关（详见央行17Q2《货币政策执行报告》），结果是银行的合意超储率水平逐渐降低。不过近年合意超储率的回落速度明显放缓，最近三年累计仅回落0.035%，不是造成近期低超储率和宽松流动性共存的主要原因。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0a40cbdce0b1dbee24bdc9682141b304\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"624\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p><b>第三，单独参照银行超储率评估流动性的方法不够完整。主要缺陷在于两方面：</b>一是银行超储率主要反映流动性<b>供给</b>水平，没有考虑流动性<b>需求</b>的影响；二是银行超储率主要反映来自<b>银行</b>的流动性供给水平，没有考虑<b>非银</b>的状态。举例来说，如果金融机构杠杆偏好下降/非银机构流动性储备充足，则在相同的银行超储率水平下，流动性价格可能更低。<b>因此，需要将流动性需求和非银流动性储备纳入框架进行综合考量。</b></p>\n<p><b>二、5月流动性宽松的原因是需求弱：地方发债需求——缓慢、非银流动性——充裕、杠杆偏好——不强</b></p>\n<p><b>第一，5月地方政府债券发行缓慢，流动性需求低于预期。</b></p>\n<p>1-5月，地方新增专项债发行仅5840亿，占全年额度3.65万亿的16%；相比之下，2019和2020年的同期进度为39.8%、59.7%。新增一般债的发行进度高于专项债，但也稍慢于19-20年同期。总的来看，5月地方债发行规模既低于市场预期，也低于地方披露规模。</p>\n<p>发债缓慢的直接原因是相关部委收紧了审核条件，根本原因则是在稳增长压力不大的背景下，地方政府举债条件有所收紧。<b>实际上，收紧的不只是预算内债务，</b>3月15日国常会提出“政府部门杠杆率要有所降低”，意味着今年广义政府债务增速要明显下降。</p>\n<p><b>作为风险对冲，再融资债券的发行条件有所放宽。</b>历史上，再融资债券仅用来置换到期的地方政府债券本金，而从去年年底开始，已经可以部分用来偿还地方政府存量债务，相当于将再融资范围从预算内债务扩大到了广义政府债务。1-5月，再融资债券发行规模达到1.6万亿，可能反映了这段时间的政策导向：稳增长压力小所以不急于发新增债券，但当前也尽量不要暴露风险，稳妥化解存量债务。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/79e14a4c0aaaae3b380a25fb2f83ad23\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"621\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p><b>第二，非银机构的流动性储备充足，流动性需求弱，配置需求强。</b></p>\n<p>受权益市场波动、实体投资需求减弱等影响，今年货币基金规模大幅增长，去年12月以来已经增长1.8万亿。这带来两种效应：一是非银本身的流动性储备比较充足，1-4月非银存款累计大幅增长1.7万亿，是2018年以来的最高值，减弱了非银的流动性需求，R007与DR007之差处于历史低位；二是货基扩张提升了非银对存单的配置需求，补充了银行的中长期负债，推动存单利率下行的同时稳定了银行负债预期。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a0a9f58ac33397971b61f7412173c279\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"580\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0bea750627d18aa6685a264c908def09\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"582\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p><b>第三，金融机构的杠杆偏好不高，资金价格相对稳定。</b></p>\n<p>1月中下旬流动性一度大幅波动，打破了去年11月永煤事件之后的宽松预期。也因此，虽然春节至今流动性重新回到相对宽松的水平，金融机构加杠杆的意愿比较有限。用每月银行间质押式回购的日均成交量和债券托管量之比衡量债券市场的杠杆意愿，今年1月之后始终处于较低水平，3月以来的流动性宽松也基本没有提高杠杆意愿。在此背景下，稍微偏低的超储率也没有引发资金价格的明显提升，4-5月的流动性宽松处于相对稳定的状态。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4e9e32735321005509e004e3adc5990a\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"581\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p><b>三、6月前瞻：流动性大概率出现缺口，短期明显收紧概率不大，但要警惕资金面波动放大</b></p>\n<p><b>6月银行间大概率会出现流动性缺口，5月超储率已降至较低水平是一个基础，对应了流动性供给有限；需求方面有三个因素将推升流动性需求：</b></p>\n<p><b>一是政府债券继续发行。</b>虽然地方债券发行缓慢，但发行的过程没有停止。目前6月地方政府新增债券发行计划合计近4600亿，由于部分地方没有披露，全国的发行计划规模应高于这一水平。因此即便是实际发行规模继续低于发行计划，也应在4500亿以上。再加上国债发行和5月地方债计划发行但实际未发行部分，政府债券净融资可能在6500亿左右。</p>\n<p>对于下半年，假设国债足额发行，如果今年地方债全年发行预算新增额度的80%，则下半年政府债券的月均供给量为7300亿；如果发行90%，则月均供给为8100亿；如果发行100%，则月均供给为8800亿。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/95f5cfe13ab0538c98b78bbfa9fd3e9c\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"579\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p><b>二是银行面临半年度MPA考核。</b>由于银行面临季度、半年度、年度考核压力，每个季度末的合意超储率都会季节性上升，其中12月和6月的超储率最高，3月和9月其次，其余非季末月份最低。2015年以来6月底超储率均值为1.9%，最低的是2017年的1.4%。今年即使按照近年最低的1.3%估算，比5月的0.9%也有一定差距。按照当前接近200万亿的缴准基数，大约是8000亿的短期流动性需求。</p>\n<p><b>三是缴税缴准等短期流动性需求。</b>季度末银行有冲存款行为，导致缴准规模较大，6月估计在3000亿左右。<b>以上对应的流动性需求合计接近1.8万亿。</b></p>\n<p><b>还有一些因素会对流动性供给形成补充，</b>最主要的是财政支出，6月历来是支出大月，财政资金投放规模可能略高于1万亿。至于外汇占款，考虑到央行近期提高了外汇存款法定准备金率，尚没有看到央行明显增加外汇占款投放以吸纳外汇的迹象。</p>\n<p><b>非银机构的流动性储备还将继续平抑其流动性需求，同时还可能对银行间流动性形成一定补充，但以非银的体量直接弥合流动性缺口的难度比较大。</b>今年2-5月非银增持存单1.2万亿，月均3000亿，对银行负债的净增量贡献应低于这个水平。另外，近期权益市场风险偏好有所改善，实体部门的货基和理财配置需求可能边际放缓。MPA考核和政府债券发行将切实提高6月银行自身的流动性需求，当前不到1%的超储率难以提供足够的流动性供给。</p>\n<p><b>综上，预计6月的流动性供需缺口大约在6000亿，加上6月15日MLF到期2000亿，合计约8000亿。如果考虑非银的流动性储备，实际缺口可能稍偏低，但不足以完全弥合。</b></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/185fe57aa856f0abd2f829e9f32f5899\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"193\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p><b>因此，6月的流动性缺口大概率需要通过央行公开市场净投放来弥合，加大逆回购投放量和MLF超额续作是预期内的主要手段。</b></p>\n<p>流动性缺口不意味着资金面必然收紧，根本上取决于央行的政策意图和投放力度。6月正处于资金面和金融稳定的窗口期，金融稳定在政策目标中享有较高权重。<b>因此，短期内央行主动引导流动性明显收紧的概率不大，后续将加大公开市场操作力度，结果是DR007反映的存款类机构流动性价格中枢基本稳定或小幅上行，波动率可能有所上升，R007相比之下更平稳。时点上，央行不加大投放意味着流动性缺口尚不明显，加大投放力度反而说明缺口出现，届时资金面波动可能有所加大，流动性最宽松的阶段也将随之告一段落。</b></p>\n<p><b>风险提示</b></p>\n<p>流动性缺口低于估算水平；央行投放力度超预期/低于预期；地方债发行提速</p>","source":"xthgbj","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>6月流动性前瞻：最宽松已过，波动率上升</title>\n<style 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margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n6月流动性前瞻：最宽松已过，波动率上升\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-06-07 13:20 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/7YiOhoFLZdf1Qr9lt6ieQA><strong>雪涛宏观笔记</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>5月流动性超预期宽松，低超储率和宽松流动性共存，主要原因是超储率评估流动性的传统框架不够完善，需要纳入流动性需求和非银行为考量。展望6月，流动性需求明显增加，低超储率意味着大概率出现流动性缺口。当前金融稳定在货币政策目标中享有较高权重，预计央行将加大投放力度，流动性价格中枢基本稳定或小幅上移，资金面波动加大。稳定窗口期内出现资金缺口意味着流动性最宽松的阶段将告一段落。\n\n5月银行间流动性整体维持...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/7YiOhoFLZdf1Qr9lt6ieQA\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1c7221d934f1008e531bdf79c8cfe0ee","relate_stocks":{"399001":"深证成指","399006":"创业板指","000001.SH":"上证指数"},"source_url":"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/7YiOhoFLZdf1Qr9lt6ieQA","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1120446587","content_text":"5月流动性超预期宽松，低超储率和宽松流动性共存，主要原因是超储率评估流动性的传统框架不够完善，需要纳入流动性需求和非银行为考量。展望6月，流动性需求明显增加，低超储率意味着大概率出现流动性缺口。当前金融稳定在货币政策目标中享有较高权重，预计央行将加大投放力度，流动性价格中枢基本稳定或小幅上移，资金面波动加大。稳定窗口期内出现资金缺口意味着流动性最宽松的阶段将告一段落。\n\n5月银行间流动性整体维持宽松，全月DR007中枢低于政策利率8BP，与4月基本持平；1年期AAA同业存单利率中枢低于政策利率7BP，较4月回落10BP。5月流动性超预期宽松，很大程度上得益于地方债发行缓慢，但估算5月底超储率已经降至0.9%左右，出现了低超储率和宽松流动性共存的局面。究其原因，主要是超储率评估流动性的传统框架不够完善（并不是不对），需要纳入流动性需求和非银行为等因素综合考量。\n展望6月，多方面因素推动流动性需求明显增加，低超储率（低流动性供给）意味着大概率出现流动性缺口。考虑到当前金融稳定在货币政策目标中享有较高权重，预计央行后续将加大公开市场投放力度，流动性价格中枢基本稳定或小幅上移，资金面波动可能有所加大。在稳定窗口期内出现资金缺口，意味着流动性最宽松的阶段将告一段落。\n一、5月低超储率和宽松流动性共存——超储率评估流动性的合理性和不足\n3月1日至今，央行连续3个月公开市场零投放，银行超储率逐渐走低。估算超储率3月1.5%、4月1.2%，均高于近年同期水平（20年除外），对应无流动性缺口，央行零投放不影响流动性宽松。但5月的情况有所不同，估算超储率可能已经降至0.9%左右，从历史同期看属于较低水平；从去年经验看，非季末月份超储率处于1.1%附近时流动性已经是紧平衡状态，这与5月流动性整体偏松的现实不太相符。\n\n如何理解近期超储率与流动性的联动弱化？我们给出三点思考：\n第一，银行作为流动性供给的主要来源，参考超储率评估流动性在多数情况下是合理的。将超储率进行HP滤波，将周期项做季节性调整，可见超储率的周期性变化与央行扩表速度明显负相关。历史上我国央行扩表加快指向货币收紧、减慢指向货币宽松（近年稍有变化），可见超储率可以准确反映货币政策取向。2016年以来，由于基础货币投放渠道的系统性变化，央行对货币市场利率的控制力逐渐提高，超储率与流动性的相关性进一步强化。\n\n第二，银行合意超储率长期趋于回落，但近年回落速度明显放缓，不是造成近期低超储率和宽松流动性共存的主要原因。HP滤波后可见超储率的趋势项长期趋于回落，这与支付体系现代化缩短资金清算占用时间、融资渠道拓展降低预防性需求、银行流动性管理和精细化程度提高等有关（详见央行17Q2《货币政策执行报告》），结果是银行的合意超储率水平逐渐降低。不过近年合意超储率的回落速度明显放缓，最近三年累计仅回落0.035%，不是造成近期低超储率和宽松流动性共存的主要原因。\n\n第三，单独参照银行超储率评估流动性的方法不够完整。主要缺陷在于两方面：一是银行超储率主要反映流动性供给水平，没有考虑流动性需求的影响；二是银行超储率主要反映来自银行的流动性供给水平，没有考虑非银的状态。举例来说，如果金融机构杠杆偏好下降/非银机构流动性储备充足，则在相同的银行超储率水平下，流动性价格可能更低。因此，需要将流动性需求和非银流动性储备纳入框架进行综合考量。\n二、5月流动性宽松的原因是需求弱：地方发债需求——缓慢、非银流动性——充裕、杠杆偏好——不强\n第一，5月地方政府债券发行缓慢，流动性需求低于预期。\n1-5月，地方新增专项债发行仅5840亿，占全年额度3.65万亿的16%；相比之下，2019和2020年的同期进度为39.8%、59.7%。新增一般债的发行进度高于专项债，但也稍慢于19-20年同期。总的来看，5月地方债发行规模既低于市场预期，也低于地方披露规模。\n发债缓慢的直接原因是相关部委收紧了审核条件，根本原因则是在稳增长压力不大的背景下，地方政府举债条件有所收紧。实际上，收紧的不只是预算内债务，3月15日国常会提出“政府部门杠杆率要有所降低”，意味着今年广义政府债务增速要明显下降。\n作为风险对冲，再融资债券的发行条件有所放宽。历史上，再融资债券仅用来置换到期的地方政府债券本金，而从去年年底开始，已经可以部分用来偿还地方政府存量债务，相当于将再融资范围从预算内债务扩大到了广义政府债务。1-5月，再融资债券发行规模达到1.6万亿，可能反映了这段时间的政策导向：稳增长压力小所以不急于发新增债券，但当前也尽量不要暴露风险，稳妥化解存量债务。\n\n第二，非银机构的流动性储备充足，流动性需求弱，配置需求强。\n受权益市场波动、实体投资需求减弱等影响，今年货币基金规模大幅增长，去年12月以来已经增长1.8万亿。这带来两种效应：一是非银本身的流动性储备比较充足，1-4月非银存款累计大幅增长1.7万亿，是2018年以来的最高值，减弱了非银的流动性需求，R007与DR007之差处于历史低位；二是货基扩张提升了非银对存单的配置需求，补充了银行的中长期负债，推动存单利率下行的同时稳定了银行负债预期。\n\n第三，金融机构的杠杆偏好不高，资金价格相对稳定。\n1月中下旬流动性一度大幅波动，打破了去年11月永煤事件之后的宽松预期。也因此，虽然春节至今流动性重新回到相对宽松的水平，金融机构加杠杆的意愿比较有限。用每月银行间质押式回购的日均成交量和债券托管量之比衡量债券市场的杠杆意愿，今年1月之后始终处于较低水平，3月以来的流动性宽松也基本没有提高杠杆意愿。在此背景下，稍微偏低的超储率也没有引发资金价格的明显提升，4-5月的流动性宽松处于相对稳定的状态。\n\n三、6月前瞻：流动性大概率出现缺口，短期明显收紧概率不大，但要警惕资金面波动放大\n6月银行间大概率会出现流动性缺口，5月超储率已降至较低水平是一个基础，对应了流动性供给有限；需求方面有三个因素将推升流动性需求：\n一是政府债券继续发行。虽然地方债券发行缓慢，但发行的过程没有停止。目前6月地方政府新增债券发行计划合计近4600亿，由于部分地方没有披露，全国的发行计划规模应高于这一水平。因此即便是实际发行规模继续低于发行计划，也应在4500亿以上。再加上国债发行和5月地方债计划发行但实际未发行部分，政府债券净融资可能在6500亿左右。\n对于下半年，假设国债足额发行，如果今年地方债全年发行预算新增额度的80%，则下半年政府债券的月均供给量为7300亿；如果发行90%，则月均供给为8100亿；如果发行100%，则月均供给为8800亿。\n\n二是银行面临半年度MPA考核。由于银行面临季度、半年度、年度考核压力，每个季度末的合意超储率都会季节性上升，其中12月和6月的超储率最高，3月和9月其次，其余非季末月份最低。2015年以来6月底超储率均值为1.9%，最低的是2017年的1.4%。今年即使按照近年最低的1.3%估算，比5月的0.9%也有一定差距。按照当前接近200万亿的缴准基数，大约是8000亿的短期流动性需求。\n三是缴税缴准等短期流动性需求。季度末银行有冲存款行为，导致缴准规模较大，6月估计在3000亿左右。以上对应的流动性需求合计接近1.8万亿。\n还有一些因素会对流动性供给形成补充，最主要的是财政支出，6月历来是支出大月，财政资金投放规模可能略高于1万亿。至于外汇占款，考虑到央行近期提高了外汇存款法定准备金率，尚没有看到央行明显增加外汇占款投放以吸纳外汇的迹象。\n非银机构的流动性储备还将继续平抑其流动性需求，同时还可能对银行间流动性形成一定补充，但以非银的体量直接弥合流动性缺口的难度比较大。今年2-5月非银增持存单1.2万亿，月均3000亿，对银行负债的净增量贡献应低于这个水平。另外，近期权益市场风险偏好有所改善，实体部门的货基和理财配置需求可能边际放缓。MPA考核和政府债券发行将切实提高6月银行自身的流动性需求，当前不到1%的超储率难以提供足够的流动性供给。\n综上，预计6月的流动性供需缺口大约在6000亿，加上6月15日MLF到期2000亿，合计约8000亿。如果考虑非银的流动性储备，实际缺口可能稍偏低，但不足以完全弥合。\n\n因此，6月的流动性缺口大概率需要通过央行公开市场净投放来弥合，加大逆回购投放量和MLF超额续作是预期内的主要手段。\n流动性缺口不意味着资金面必然收紧，根本上取决于央行的政策意图和投放力度。6月正处于资金面和金融稳定的窗口期，金融稳定在政策目标中享有较高权重。因此，短期内央行主动引导流动性明显收紧的概率不大，后续将加大公开市场操作力度，结果是DR007反映的存款类机构流动性价格中枢基本稳定或小幅上行，波动率可能有所上升，R007相比之下更平稳。时点上，央行不加大投放意味着流动性缺口尚不明显，加大投放力度反而说明缺口出现，届时资金面波动可能有所加大，流动性最宽松的阶段也将随之告一段落。\n风险提示\n流动性缺口低于估算水平；央行投放力度超预期/低于预期；地方债发行提速","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":248,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":199940611,"gmtCreate":1620668470633,"gmtModify":1634197275882,"author":{"id":"3569028586400878","authorId":"3569028586400878","name":"Miaw","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bd318611f16b0eb6de098c8b733c85fd","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3569028586400878","authorIdStr":"3569028586400878"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"真伤","listText":"真伤","text":"真伤","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/199940611","repostId":"1135152867","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":192,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":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is too volatile... Not suitable me","listText":"This is too volatile... Not suitable me","text":"This is too volatile... Not suitable me","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":4,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/326542251","repostId":"2119998114","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":61,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":326207019,"gmtCreate":1615646379631,"gmtModify":1703491872302,"author":{"id":"3569028586400878","authorId":"3569028586400878","name":"Miaw","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bd318611f16b0eb6de098c8b733c85fd","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3569028586400878","authorIdStr":"3569028586400878"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Finally","listText":"Finally","text":"Finally","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/326207019","repostId":"1199156489","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1199156489","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Providing stock market headlines, business news, financials and earnings ","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Tiger Newspress","id":"1079075236","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1615452861,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1199156489?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-03-11 16:54","market":"us","language":"en","title":"US Daylight Saving Time","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1199156489","media":"Tiger Newspress","summary":"From 02:00 U.S. East time March 14(this Sunday),the North America region entered daylight saving tim","content":"<p>From&nbsp;02:00&nbsp;U.S.&nbsp;East&nbsp;time&nbsp;March&nbsp;14(this&nbsp;Sunday),the&nbsp;North America&nbsp;region&nbsp;entered&nbsp;daylight saving&nbsp;time,until&nbsp;02:00&nbsp;U.S.&nbsp;East&nbsp;time&nbsp;ends&nbsp;on&nbsp;November&nbsp;7,2021.</p><p>So,starting&nbsp;on&nbsp;Monday,March&nbsp;14,the&nbsp;U.S.&nbsp;market&nbsp;will&nbsp;open&nbsp;and&nbsp;close&nbsp;one&nbsp;hour&nbsp;ahead&nbsp;of&nbsp;schedule&nbsp;during&nbsp;north&nbsp;american&nbsp;daylight saving time,i.e.,U.S.&nbsp;trading&nbsp;time&nbsp;will&nbsp;be&nbsp;changed&nbsp;to&nbsp;21:30&nbsp;beijing&nbsp;time&nbsp;to&nbsp;04:00&nbsp;a.m.the&nbsp;next&nbsp;day,pre-trade&nbsp;time&nbsp;will&nbsp;be&nbsp;16:00&nbsp;to&nbsp;21:30,after-trade&nbsp;time&nbsp;will&nbsp;be&nbsp;04:00&nbsp;to&nbsp;8:00.</p><p><b>What is daylight saving time?</b></p><p>The DST is the practice of moving clocks forward by one hour during summer months so that daylight lasts longer into evening. Most of North America and Europe follows the custom, while the majority of countries elsewhere do not.</p><p>Hawaii, American Samoa, Guam, Puerto Rico, the US Virgin Islands and most of Arizona don’t observe daylight saving time. It’s incumbent to stick with the status quo.</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>US Daylight Saving Time</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nUS Daylight Saving Time\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1079075236\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Tiger Newspress </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2021-03-11 16:54</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>From&nbsp;02:00&nbsp;U.S.&nbsp;East&nbsp;time&nbsp;March&nbsp;14(this&nbsp;Sunday),the&nbsp;North America&nbsp;region&nbsp;entered&nbsp;daylight saving&nbsp;time,until&nbsp;02:00&nbsp;U.S.&nbsp;East&nbsp;time&nbsp;ends&nbsp;on&nbsp;November&nbsp;7,2021.</p><p>So,starting&nbsp;on&nbsp;Monday,March&nbsp;14,the&nbsp;U.S.&nbsp;market&nbsp;will&nbsp;open&nbsp;and&nbsp;close&nbsp;one&nbsp;hour&nbsp;ahead&nbsp;of&nbsp;schedule&nbsp;during&nbsp;north&nbsp;american&nbsp;daylight saving time,i.e.,U.S.&nbsp;trading&nbsp;time&nbsp;will&nbsp;be&nbsp;changed&nbsp;to&nbsp;21:30&nbsp;beijing&nbsp;time&nbsp;to&nbsp;04:00&nbsp;a.m.the&nbsp;next&nbsp;day,pre-trade&nbsp;time&nbsp;will&nbsp;be&nbsp;16:00&nbsp;to&nbsp;21:30,after-trade&nbsp;time&nbsp;will&nbsp;be&nbsp;04:00&nbsp;to&nbsp;8:00.</p><p><b>What is daylight saving time?</b></p><p>The DST is the practice of moving clocks forward by one hour during summer months so that daylight lasts longer into evening. Most of North America and Europe follows the custom, while the majority of countries elsewhere do not.</p><p>Hawaii, American Samoa, Guam, Puerto Rico, the US Virgin Islands and most of Arizona don’t observe daylight saving time. It’s incumbent to stick with the status quo.</p>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯"},"is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1199156489","content_text":"From 02:00 U.S. East time March 14(this Sunday),the North America region entered daylight saving time,until 02:00 U.S. East time ends on November 7,2021.So,starting on Monday,March 14,the U.S. market will open and close one hour ahead of schedule during north american daylight saving time,i.e.,U.S. trading time will be changed to 21:30 beijing time to 04:00 a.m.the next day,pre-trade time will be 16:00 to 21:30,after-trade time will be 04:00 to 8:00.What is daylight saving time?The DST is the practice of moving clocks forward by one hour during summer months so that daylight lasts longer into evening. Most of North America and Europe follows the custom, while the majority of countries elsewhere do not.Hawaii, American Samoa, Guam, Puerto Rico, the US Virgin Islands and most of Arizona don’t observe daylight saving time. It’s incumbent to stick with the status quo.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":25,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":147510180,"gmtCreate":1626363170840,"gmtModify":1631889801892,"author":{"id":"3569028586400878","authorId":"3569028586400878","name":"Miaw","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bd318611f16b0eb6de098c8b733c85fd","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3569028586400878","authorIdStr":"3569028586400878"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"分手吧","listText":"分手吧","text":"分手吧","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/147510180","repostId":"1159805435","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1159805435","pubTimestamp":1626361236,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1159805435?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-07-15 23:00","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"8年对抗不如罚单8天！阿里腾讯真和解吗？","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1159805435","media":"北京商报","summary":"两大互联网巨头传出的和解消息，在7月15日晨间如平地一声惊雷。\n数十年纠缠将一笑泯恩仇？\n据相关媒体报道，阿里和腾讯将考虑互相开放生态系统。\n图片来源：阿里巴巴集团官网截图\n可能淘宝和天猫将能微信支付","content":"<div>\n<p>两大互联网巨头传出的和解消息，在7月15日晨间如平地一声惊雷。\n数十年纠缠将一笑泯恩仇？\n据相关媒体报道，阿里和腾讯将考虑互相开放生态系统。\n图片来源：阿里巴巴集团官网截图\n可能淘宝和天猫将能微信支付将能进入，而阿里的电商内容也能在微信分享，或是以小程序形式进入微信。\n不过，无论双方真心示好，还是貌合神离，利益总是无法绕过的话题。\n图片来源：视觉中国\n老冤家变朋友？\n“腾讯系”“阿里系”“字节系”...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/uaM4yfXiPiL61RWynzkGCw\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n","source":"BJSB","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>8年对抗不如罚单8天！阿里腾讯真和解吗？</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; 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height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n8年对抗不如罚单8天！阿里腾讯真和解吗？\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-07-15 23:00 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/uaM4yfXiPiL61RWynzkGCw><strong>北京商报</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>两大互联网巨头传出的和解消息，在7月15日晨间如平地一声惊雷。\n数十年纠缠将一笑泯恩仇？\n据相关媒体报道，阿里和腾讯将考虑互相开放生态系统。\n图片来源：阿里巴巴集团官网截图\n可能淘宝和天猫将能微信支付将能进入，而阿里的电商内容也能在微信分享，或是以小程序形式进入微信。\n不过，无论双方真心示好，还是貌合神离，利益总是无法绕过的话题。\n图片来源：视觉中国\n老冤家变朋友？\n“腾讯系”“阿里系”“字节系”...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/uaM4yfXiPiL61RWynzkGCw\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/805005e12b5cff6e532fd1428a7a07b7","relate_stocks":{"TCEHY":"腾讯控股ADR","09988":"阿里巴巴-W","00700":"腾讯控股","BABA":"阿里巴巴"},"source_url":"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/uaM4yfXiPiL61RWynzkGCw","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1159805435","content_text":"两大互联网巨头传出的和解消息，在7月15日晨间如平地一声惊雷。\n数十年纠缠将一笑泯恩仇？\n据相关媒体报道，阿里和腾讯将考虑互相开放生态系统。\n图片来源：阿里巴巴集团官网截图\n可能淘宝和天猫将能微信支付将能进入，而阿里的电商内容也能在微信分享，或是以小程序形式进入微信。\n不过，无论双方真心示好，还是貌合神离，利益总是无法绕过的话题。\n图片来源：视觉中国\n老冤家变朋友？\n“腾讯系”“阿里系”“字节系”……这些人们耳熟能详的惯常称呼背后，映射出互联网巨头们数十年来孵化搭建的商业网和利益网是如此盘根错杂。淘宝与微信无法实现直接跳转，便是阿里和腾讯长达八年明争暗斗最为直观的缩影。\n图片来源：腾讯官网截图\n电商、实体零售、文娱、金融、支付……几乎各个领域都能瞧见两者以入股或收购手段，或明或暗地捉对比拼。仅以零售来说，虽然腾讯苦于供应链资源能力，却凭借庞大的社交流量拉拢京东、拼多多，扶持SaaS技术服务商微盟、有赞，认购美团股份等方式来扩展商业版图。\n据《南方周末》的统计数据显示，从2008-2020年，阿里与腾讯共投资企业分别为549家和763家。从共享单车、打车、外卖到社交团购，哪儿有新业态、新模式萌芽，哪儿就有巨头激烈交火。回顾历年来电商平台掀起的腥风血雨，如滴滴与快的高达24亿元的厮杀，美团、饿了么的补贴大战等等，可以说将烧钱换份额演绎到了极致。\n图片来源：阿里巴巴集团官网截图\n如今，对于市场传出两者互相示好的消息，截至发稿，阿里与腾讯相关负责人均未向北京商报记者进行回应。\n走向十字路口\n到底是打算真正冰释前嫌，还是迫于无奈握手言和，在当前复杂环境下，阿里和腾讯无疑需要进一步考量和权衡进退策略。\n资料显示，从2020年底，阿里与腾讯便相继认领各类罚单：2020年12月，阿里、阅文集团因未依法申报违法实施经营者集中案分别被罚50万元；2021年4月，阿里被市场监管总局责令整改滥用市场支配地位行为，并罚款182亿元；2021年7月，市场监管总局通报22起违法实施经营者集中案件，其中阿里占6起，腾讯占5起，两者分别被罚50万元。\n\n与此同时，7月2日，市场监管总局对《价格违法行为行政处罚规定(修订征求意见稿)》公开征求意见。低价倾销、大数据“杀熟”等新业态中常见手段将被定性为价格违法行为。\n一方面是政府监管加强，政策收紧，巨头曾屡试不爽的资本操作将戴上“紧箍咒”，而另一方面，尽管阿里与腾讯角力数十年间，双方投入不分上下，却仍难深入腹地，攻破彼此最擅长的领域。从拼多多的崛起，到抖音、快手扩张电商业务，新势力正不断蚕食阿里和腾讯固守的防线——供应链能力或是社交流量。\n图片来源：字节跳动官网截图\n巨头们引以为傲的优势，或许并不是想象中那么固若金汤。7月15日，据相关媒体报道，抖音已开启外卖业务内测。在部分业内人士眼中，这意味着抖音不仅将进一步挑战饿了么、美团在外卖市场的“双寡头”格局，为商家再添销售渠道，短视频营销也会改变用户在餐饮外卖场景的体验心智。\n绕不开的利益顾虑\n不过，若是阿里能获得进入微信生态的机会，腾讯会开多大的口子，该如何平衡商业生态内合作伙伴与阿里的竞争关系，保护拼多多、京东、唯品会以及小程序商家等的利益，而阿里又将如何容纳微信支付与支付宝同处一室，又不短兵相接，将左右两者在实际业务推进上的难易程度。毕竟，后来者拼多多能快速跑马圈地，离不开腾讯社交生态的扶持，最终成长为阿里难以忽视的竞争对手。\n\n图片来源：腾讯官网截图\n“腾讯也许在流量开放上面会对阿里有所保留，可能会从开放一部分开始，比如小程序或者企业微信。”电商分析师鲁振旺认为，“因为现在微信的商业生态价值和它目前的体系有关，目前微信在推广企业微信，很多商家在微信上经营自己的用户，或是向微信投放广告吸引用户，这项业务也会逐渐变为微信重要的广告来源，但如果向淘宝开放，那商家在淘宝的用户便能直接导入微信，微信的广告业务可能会受到波及甚至需要改变它的业务体系。”\n巨头间明面的示好，背后仍有诸多利益顾虑。鲁振旺补充道，对于阿里来说，微信支付接入淘宝后，如果用户使用量超过支付宝，很有可能会影响蚂蚁金服的估值，所以阿里也会考量是否要真正开放支付系统。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":712,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":106723555,"gmtCreate":1620148747177,"gmtModify":1634207439515,"author":{"id":"3569028586400878","authorId":"3569028586400878","name":"Miaw","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bd318611f16b0eb6de098c8b733c85fd","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3569028586400878","authorIdStr":"3569028586400878"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"可惜吧...27年了","listText":"可惜吧...27年了","text":"可惜吧...27年了","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":7,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/106723555","repostId":"1114782342","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":122,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":103722959,"gmtCreate":1619825637171,"gmtModify":1634209729093,"author":{"id":"3569028586400878","authorId":"3569028586400878","name":"Miaw","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bd318611f16b0eb6de098c8b733c85fd","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3569028586400878","authorIdStr":"3569028586400878"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Mmh.. RIP","listText":"Mmh.. RIP","text":"Mmh.. RIP","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":4,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/103722959","repostId":"1186292210","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1186292210","pubTimestamp":1619825384,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1186292210?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-05-01 07:29","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"震惊华尔街！传奇投资人为何从摩天大楼一跃而下？","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1186292210","media":"一亩三分地海外...","summary":"2021年4月26日，著名价值投资人查尔斯·德·沃克斯(Charles de Vaulx)从其位于第五大道717号的10楼办公室跳下自杀身亡，享年59岁。噩耗一出，整个华尔街哗然。Vaulx是一名坚定","content":"<p>2021年4月26日，著名价值投资人<b>查尔斯·德·沃克斯</b>(Charles de Vaulx)从其位于第五大道717号的10楼办公室跳下自杀身亡，享年59岁。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/17f757a93837edec86ad7e9c3478ce3c\" tg-width=\"936\" tg-height=\"624\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>噩耗一出，整个华尔街哗然。</p><p>Vaulx是一名坚定的价值投资者，有着非常丰富的投资经验。在漫长的职业生涯中， 他青睐投资被低估和冷门的股票，并且<b>从未偏离过自己的投资理念</b>。</p><p>Vaulx生于摩洛哥，毕业于法国鲁昂商业大学，攻读金融硕士学位。</p><p>2007年，Vaulx和其他三名合伙人创立了<b>国际价值顾问公司</b>（International Value Advisers, IVA）。</p><p>金融危机期间，他们的价值投资方法非常受欢迎，很快就吸引了大量资金。</p><p>在那段时间，IVA迅速成长为美国增长最快的基金之一，拥有40名员工，<b>公司规模一度达到200亿美元的巅峰</b>。</p><p>然而，由于Vaulx的想法经常与他的长期商业伙伴Lardemelle发生冲突，他也不愿将任何控制权让给Lardemelle。最终，Lardemelle宣布于2020年7月离职。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1387aec3d9113f961d916efe1971009d\" tg-width=\"830\" tg-height=\"554\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>雪上加霜的是，这几年美股是成长股的天下，Vaulx管理的基金的收益率大幅跑输市场上的成长型股票，于是<b>投资者纷纷赎回了资金</b>。</p><p>重要投资经理的离职，投资者的不信任，导致公司规模从200亿美元的高峰<b>骤降至10亿美元以下</b>。到2020年底，该公司的净资产总额为8.63亿美元。</p><p>IVA官网显示，<b>Vaulx自杀的一周前，他管理的基金已经清盘</b>。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f36059046ab50536d549e593cd5c3254\" tg-width=\"800\" tg-height=\"578\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>尽管如此，Vaulx轻生的消息还是让很多人感到惊讶和困惑，因为他仍然有着一群忠实的客户，他持有的许多股票在过去几个月中都有显着增长，他身价高达数亿美元。此外，他也是两个孩子的父亲。</p><p>Vaulx身边的人表示，投资者的不再信任对他是一个致命的打击。</p><blockquote>“他是一个 <b>很狂妄自大的复杂的人</b>，他觉得自己没有完成价值投资的使命，失去了存在的理由。”</blockquote><p>晨星公司的高级分析师Gregg Wolper如此形容Vaulx对价值投资的执着：</p><blockquote>他之所以坚持这点，并不是因为他固执。而是他认为， <b>这是保护股东们免受亏损的最佳投资方式</b>。这是他在行使他的义务。</blockquote><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c326535a553ead06179028d204468675\" tg-width=\"936\" tg-height=\"586\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>愿逝者安息。</p>","source":"lsy1619143762088","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>震惊华尔街！传奇投资人为何从摩天大楼一跃而下？</title>\n<style 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margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n震惊华尔街！传奇投资人为何从摩天大楼一跃而下？\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-05-01 07:29 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/SpwhYO-STHHihbgS14zamA><strong>一亩三分地海外...</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>2021年4月26日，著名价值投资人查尔斯·德·沃克斯(Charles de Vaulx)从其位于第五大道717号的10楼办公室跳下自杀身亡，享年59岁。噩耗一出，整个华尔街哗然。Vaulx是一名坚定的价值投资者，有着非常丰富的投资经验。在漫长的职业生涯中， 他青睐投资被低估和冷门的股票，并且从未偏离过自己的投资理念。Vaulx生于摩洛哥，毕业于法国鲁昂商业大学，攻读金融硕士学位。2007年，...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/SpwhYO-STHHihbgS14zamA\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/17f757a93837edec86ad7e9c3478ce3c","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"source_url":"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/SpwhYO-STHHihbgS14zamA","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1186292210","content_text":"2021年4月26日，著名价值投资人查尔斯·德·沃克斯(Charles de Vaulx)从其位于第五大道717号的10楼办公室跳下自杀身亡，享年59岁。噩耗一出，整个华尔街哗然。Vaulx是一名坚定的价值投资者，有着非常丰富的投资经验。在漫长的职业生涯中， 他青睐投资被低估和冷门的股票，并且从未偏离过自己的投资理念。Vaulx生于摩洛哥，毕业于法国鲁昂商业大学，攻读金融硕士学位。2007年，Vaulx和其他三名合伙人创立了国际价值顾问公司（International Value Advisers, IVA）。金融危机期间，他们的价值投资方法非常受欢迎，很快就吸引了大量资金。在那段时间，IVA迅速成长为美国增长最快的基金之一，拥有40名员工，公司规模一度达到200亿美元的巅峰。然而，由于Vaulx的想法经常与他的长期商业伙伴Lardemelle发生冲突，他也不愿将任何控制权让给Lardemelle。最终，Lardemelle宣布于2020年7月离职。雪上加霜的是，这几年美股是成长股的天下，Vaulx管理的基金的收益率大幅跑输市场上的成长型股票，于是投资者纷纷赎回了资金。重要投资经理的离职，投资者的不信任，导致公司规模从200亿美元的高峰骤降至10亿美元以下。到2020年底，该公司的净资产总额为8.63亿美元。IVA官网显示，Vaulx自杀的一周前，他管理的基金已经清盘。尽管如此，Vaulx轻生的消息还是让很多人感到惊讶和困惑，因为他仍然有着一群忠实的客户，他持有的许多股票在过去几个月中都有显着增长，他身价高达数亿美元。此外，他也是两个孩子的父亲。Vaulx身边的人表示，投资者的不再信任对他是一个致命的打击。“他是一个 很狂妄自大的复杂的人，他觉得自己没有完成价值投资的使命，失去了存在的理由。”晨星公司的高级分析师Gregg Wolper如此形容Vaulx对价值投资的执着：他之所以坚持这点，并不是因为他固执。而是他认为， 这是保护股东们免受亏损的最佳投资方式。这是他在行使他的义务。愿逝者安息。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":67,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":342768447,"gmtCreate":1618243409589,"gmtModify":1634294185217,"author":{"id":"3569028586400878","authorId":"3569028586400878","name":"Miaw","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bd318611f16b0eb6de098c8b733c85fd","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3569028586400878","authorIdStr":"3569028586400878"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"[惊吓]&nbsp;","listText":"[惊吓]&nbsp;","text":"[惊吓]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/342768447","repostId":"2126419069","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":72,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":355323518,"gmtCreate":1617029734234,"gmtModify":1634523020374,"author":{"id":"3569028586400878","authorId":"3569028586400878","name":"Miaw","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bd318611f16b0eb6de098c8b733c85fd","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3569028586400878","authorIdStr":"3569028586400878"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"我还是很崇拜Cathie Wood[爱你]&nbsp;","listText":"我还是很崇拜Cathie Wood[爱你]&nbsp;","text":"我还是很崇拜Cathie Wood[爱你]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/355323518","repostId":"2123790280","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":55,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":352910016,"gmtCreate":1616853962435,"gmtModify":1634523725500,"author":{"id":"3569028586400878","authorId":"3569028586400878","name":"Miaw","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bd318611f16b0eb6de098c8b733c85fd","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3569028586400878","authorIdStr":"3569028586400878"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"But retail investor just not fancy of these stocks","listText":"But retail investor just not fancy of these stocks","text":"But retail investor just not fancy of these stocks","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/352910016","repostId":"1114428323","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1114428323","pubTimestamp":1616771427,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1114428323?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-03-26 23:10","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Top 10 Undervalued Income Stocks For 2021 - Value Beats Growth","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1114428323","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"At the end of 2020, we showcased a list of 10 undervalued income stocks for 2021. Looking back, we see that the performance, on average, has been great so far.In this report, we examine the reasons for that and will look at whether all 10 are still strong buys today.In some cases, the opportunity is even better now, in others, it may be time to lock in some gains.In the above chart, we see a very clear trend that emerged towards the end of February. The growth-heavy Nasdaq index  started to decl","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p>\n<ul>\n <li>At the end of 2020, we showcased a list of 10 undervalued income stocks for 2021. Looking back, we see that the performance, on average, has been great so far.</li>\n <li>In this report, we examine the reasons for that and will look at whether all 10 are still strong buys today.</li>\n <li>In some cases, the opportunity is even better now, in others, it may be time to lock in some gains.</li>\n</ul>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b2d4b3c6dfc0c9c3580bdfc40f4151fb\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1025\"><span>Photo by VeranikaSmirnaya/iStock via Getty Images</span></p>\n<p>We wrote an article at the end of December in which we showcased 10 attractive income stocks that traded at inexpensive valuations back then. This resulted in a combination of upside potential and above-average income for investors that bought these stocks at the time. In this article, we will look again at the same ten stocks to see what has changed and whether they are all still attractive at current valuations.</p>\n<p><b>Top 10 Value Picks For Dividend Investors</b></p>\n<p>Our choices in&nbsp;our original article&nbsp;included the following 10 stocks:</p>\n<p>- Bristol-Myers Squibb (BMY) and AbbVie (ABBV) in healthcare</p>\n<p>- MPLX (MPLX) and Enterprise Products (EPD) in energy</p>\n<p>- Prudential (PRU) and Citigroup (C) in financials</p>\n<p>- Simon Property Group (SPG) and W. P. Carey (WPC) in real estate</p>\n<p>- AT&amp;T (T) in telecommunication</p>\n<p>- Intel (INTC) in tech</p>\n<p>Looking back one quarter later, we see that shares have performed like this:</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/efdd2ae3235c94c5e041ed4f3925d561\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"555\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p>\n<p>Year-to-date, they delivered an average return of 12% and a median return of 15%. Contrast this with the year-to-date return of 3% that was delivered by the S&amp;P 500 index (SPY), and we see that our picks clearly outperformed the broad market, delivering 4-5 times the performance enjoyed by those that put their money into the index.</p>\n<p><b>2020 Versus 2021: Growth Versus Value</b></p>\n<p>This was, I believe, partially the result of investing in high-yielding stocks that traded at very inexpensive valuations and were thus undervalued, but the portfolio also benefited from an overall shift in the market's focus.</p>\n<p>2020 was the year of growth stocks, which saw many \"growthy\" tech names generate very attractive gains. The same could be said about EV stocks, renewable stocks, etc., which all flourished last year thanks to an appetite for growth stocks and unprecedented monetary stimulus. In 2021, that has changed to some degree:</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5a81cfc9a5d54fce53409f7ea5cd0975\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"470\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p>\n<p>In the above chart, we see a very clear trend that emerged towards the end of February. The growth-heavy Nasdaq index (NASDAQ:QQQ) started to decline, underperforming the S&amp;P 500 index this year, whereas the less techy, less growth-focused Dow Jones index (NYSEARCA:DIA) has beaten the S&amp;P 500 so far in 2021. Looking at two ETFs that focus on either Value (VTV) or Growth(NYSEARCA:VUG), we see that the value theme clearly has been the winner so far this year, beating all three indexes, whereas the growth-themed ETF is down this year. The good news is that our basket of stocks still easily outperformed the Value ETF, which shows that we seem to have at least some skill when it comes to picking individual stocks (or maybe we got lucky).</p>\n<p><b>Are Those 10 Still Great Buys Today?</b></p>\n<p>Since some of these stocks have moved so much already in the first three months, they may not all be an opportune buy any longer, which is why we will take a quick look at all ten individually.</p>\n<p><b>1. AbbVie</b></p>\n<p>AbbVie was one of our two healthcare picks in the original article. The company combines many positives, including an above-average yield, a low valuation, and steady growth even during the pandemic. AbbVie's most recent quarterly results showcase its outstanding resilience during the current crisis: The company managed to grow its revenues across its portfolio, with Humira, Imbruvica, and its new drugs Skyrizi and Rinvoq&nbsp;showing&nbsp;a strong performance.</p>\n<p>Even better, the company guided earnings above consensus, forecasting earnings per share of $12.40 for the current year. Relative to its share price of $103, this means that shares got even cheaper since our December article, they are now trading for just 8.3 times forward earnings. In short, there is nothing not to like, and I believe that 5.1%-yielding AbbVie is a&nbsp;strong buy.</p>\n<p><b>2. Bristol-Myers Squibb</b></p>\n<p>Bristol-Myers is the other healthcare pick in our original list. Like AbbVie, its shares were very inexpensive in December, and like AbbVie, it has continued to deliver strong operational results. Its most recent quarterly update included a 39% revenue growth rate compared to the previous year's quarter. This was impacted by one-time items from the Celgene takeover, but even adjusted for that, revenue growth came in at a strong 10% year over year.</p>\n<p>Like AbbVie, Bristol-Myers has also increased its earnings per share guidance for 2021, now forecasting profits of ~$7.30&nbsp;per share. Since shares are essentially flat since the beginning of the year, investors get an even better deal right now in terms of Bristol-Myers' valuation, which stands at 8.3 times net profits right now. Bristol-Myers is also one of the stocks Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.A)(BRK.B)&nbsp;has continued to add to&nbsp;in the most recent quarter, which indicates that this is indeed a strong pick for value investors.</p>\n<p><b>3. MPLX</b></p>\n<p>MPLX is a natural gas midstream player that offered a great income yield in December, at almost 13%. On top of that, shares were very inexpensive, trading at a distributable cash flow yield of almost 19%.</p>\n<p>Like many other energy-related names, MPLX has performed very well in Q1, delivering a performance of almost 20% in three months. Nevertheless, shares are not at all expensive, trading at a single-digit<i>earnings</i>multiple - even though earnings are generally a lot lower than cash flows for pipeline companies due to non-cash depreciation charges. Management believes that the company will have ample surplus cash this year, even after making its hefty dividend payments.</p>\n<p>Its CEO stated that shares are undervalued and that the company will likely do&nbsp;buybacks&nbsp;this year, which is a major positive. This will not only be highly accretive thanks to the low valuation shares are trading at, but should also further support the price. Shares are a less outstanding buy compared to December (or&nbsp;earlier in 2020), but they still look very compelling, we believe. They also still offer a very attractive dividend yield of 11% at today's price.</p>\n<p><b>4. Enterprise Products</b></p>\n<p>Like MPLX, Enterprise Products has performed well so far this year, on the back of enthusiasm for energy-related names. Its profits and cash flows are not really tied to the price of oil, but the market still bid up shares in recent months. The same had been true in 2020 when shares were sold off in tandem with other energy names, even though Enterprise Products' cash flows were not really impacted by lower oil prices.</p>\n<p>Shares are up by double-digits so far this year, but Enterprise Products' shares are not at all expensive. Considering that shares are trading at just around 7 times this year's distributable cash flows, while shares offer a dividend yield of 8.1%, makes us believe that this is still a strong pick for income investors. The fact that management has been buying back shares is another tailwind that could gain relevance as growth spending slows down, which should free up more money for buybacks going forward. We thus&nbsp;still like Enterprise Products&nbsp;as a high-quality midstream company at current prices.</p>\n<p><b>5. Prudential Financial</b></p>\n<p>This insurer has had a very solid 2020 and seeks to generate even stronger profits this year. Shares are up by double-digits so far this year but do not look expensive. With current forecasts seeing the company earn about $11.50 per share this year, and even more next year, shares trade at a ~8 times forward earnings multiple right now. The company continues to reward shareholders handsomely, as Prudential has raised its dividend by 5% in February.</p>\n<p>At current prices, the stock yields 5.1%, which is quite attractive in a low-yield world. Management plans to return a total of $10 billion to the company's owners through 2023, which equates to shareholder returns in the 10% range. Investors can thus count on more dividend increases down the road, coupled with some buybacks that will be quite accretive as long as shares continue to trade at an inexpensive valuation. Shares were a better buy in December, but they still look solid today.</p>\n<p><b>6. Citigroup</b></p>\n<p>Citigroup was the only bank on our list, and I mainly chose it over peers due to its below-average valuation and above-average dividend yield. 2021 has been great for bank stocks so far, due to an overall shift to value stocks, combined with rising interest spreads that are beneficial for banks' earnings.</p>\n<p>Shares rose by double-digits so far this year, hitting a high of $76 about two weeks ago. At that price, shares were trading above tangible book value, which stands at $73.80 right now, which is why I sold part of my position in the mid-$70s. Nevertheless, I did not sell my entire stake, as I feel that shares could rise above that level at some point in 2021, even though they have pulled back a little for now.</p>\n<p>The fact that banks are allowed to return more capital to their owners this year could become a catalyst for share price gains in 2021, as Citigroup will likely seek to increase its dividend and ramp up share repurchases. Trading marginally below tangible book value and at around 10 times this year's earnings, Citigroup is not at all expensive, although also not an absolute bargain any longer. I am moderately bullish, but wouldn't buy more at current valuations.</p>\n<p><b>7. Simon Property</b></p>\n<p>Simon Property is the leading mall player in the US, especially following the close of its acquisition of Taubman. The company had a harsh 2020, but its assets will, we believe, remain in use for a long time. High-quality malls in major metropolitan areas will not lose their value due to online shopping, as retail space can be used for more experimental retail, restaurants, bars, co-working spaces, hotels, and so on.</p>\n<p>This was our thesis throughout 2020, which is why we were very bullish on the stock when it traded at ultra-low valuations last year. In 2021, shares have, so far, returned almost 30%, as the market is increasingly realizing that the pandemic was not the end for high-quality retail real estate such as the properties that Simon Property owns. Shares breached $120 earlier in March but have pulled back a little for now.</p>\n<p>Trading at ~11 times this year's FFO, Simon Property is not an absolute bargain stock any longer. I personally believe that shares will rise back towards pre-crisis levels of $150+ eventually, but that may take some time, and there is not necessarily massive upside left in 2021. I continue to hold my Simon Property position and am bullish with a long-term view, but the best time to add this stock wasin 2020 when it traded at double-digits.</p>\n<p><b>8. W. P. Carey</b></p>\n<p>Unlike Simon Property, W. P. Carey has not risen a lot this year. Instead, shares are down slightly, potentially due to the fact that real estate investors moved towards more cyclical picks in the sector for the reopening trade. W. P. Carey is a rock-solid, low-risk income stock that offers a yield of 6.0% right here and that trades at 15 times forward FFO. This is an above-average valuation compared to the other stocks in this list, but that seems justified based on the fact that W. P. Carey has always traded at higher valuations than most of these stocks.</p>\n<p>As income investors can still not generate attractive yields from bonds, they will, I believe, eventually flock back towards low-risk REITs such as W. P. Carey or Realty Income (O), which could propel shares of these companies back to pre-crisis levels. In W. P. Carey's case, they traded at around $90 before the pandemic, which equates to a yield of around 4.5%. A recovery to that level does not seem unrealistic, I believe, which is why I continue to see W. P. Carey as a moderate-return, low-risk stock, which makes it attractive from a risk-to-reward perspective.</p>\n<p><b>9. AT&amp;T</b></p>\n<p>AT&amp;T remains a battleground stock, with bulls touting the undervaluation and potential in streaming, while bears focus on the high debt load. We do not see AT&amp;T as an extremely-high-quality pick, but the company's shares offer a solid yield of almost 7% and current management seems to have the right focus. Plans to monetize non-core assets, including DirecTV, are great, and the company plans to deleverage meaningfully over the coming years. AT&amp;T is not a high-growth company and will not turn into one, but the fact that the performance of HBO Max has&nbsp;beaten management's expectations&nbsp;is a positive for sure. At less than 10 times net profits, AT&amp;T remains quite inexpensive and if management executes on its plans, shares could deliver quite solid returns over the coming years.</p>\n<p><b>10. Intel</b></p>\n<p>Intel is a somewhat weird stock - the company executes well and grows steadily, but its shares see big swings up and down depending on whether investors are focusing on positive news items or negative news items at the moment. So far this year, they seem to do the prior, as shares have risen by 25% in just three months. This can't be explained by the underlying operational performance, which has been solid but didn't include growth of 20%+. Instead, the market is currently liking Intel's stock based on recent news such as a new CEO and plans to invest heavily to grow production capacity.</p>\n<p>I think the best time to buy Intel's shares is when the market is&nbsp;focusing on the bad news, whereas one may want to lock in gains when shares are trading at the top end of the recent valuation range. At 13.5 times forward earnings, Intel's shares trade at a premium to the median earnings multiple they have traded at over the last couple of years, thus I wouldn't buy here. Instead, locking in gains in the high $60s seemed like an opportune choice. I wouldn't be too surprised if shares fell back towards the mid-$50s or lower at some point during this year.</p>\n<p><b>Takeaway</b></p>\n<p>Our picks for 2020 have done very well so far, easily beating the market and even purely value-focused ETFs. However, not all of these stocks are necessarily still a great buy. I personally wouldn't buy Intel now, as the stock has already delivered easily more than 20% this year, and is trading at the higher end of the recent valuation range. On the other hand, some of our picks, such as AbbVie or W. P. Carey, are still priced very favorably and may even be a better buy right now compared to the beginning of the year.</p>\n<p>We welcome you to share your comments on the above stocks, as well as your picks for the remainder of 2021!</p>","source":"seekingalpha","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Top 10 Undervalued Income Stocks For 2021 - Value Beats Growth</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nTop 10 Undervalued Income Stocks For 2021 - Value Beats Growth\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-03-26 23:10 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4416178-top-10-undervalued-income-stocks-for-2021-value-beats-growth><strong>seekingalpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Summary\n\nAt the end of 2020, we showcased a list of 10 undervalued income stocks for 2021. Looking back, we see that the performance, on average, has been great so far.\nIn this report, we examine the ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4416178-top-10-undervalued-income-stocks-for-2021-value-beats-growth\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"WPC":"W. P. Carey Inc","C":"花旗","SPG":"西蒙地产","MPLX":"MPLX LP","T":"美国电话电报","BMY":"施贵宝","ABBV":"艾伯维公司","PFH":"Prudential Financial Inc","INTC":"英特尔","EPD":"Enterprise Products Partners L.P"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4416178-top-10-undervalued-income-stocks-for-2021-value-beats-growth","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/5a36db9d73b4222bc376d24ccc48c8a4","article_id":"1114428323","content_text":"Summary\n\nAt the end of 2020, we showcased a list of 10 undervalued income stocks for 2021. Looking back, we see that the performance, on average, has been great so far.\nIn this report, we examine the reasons for that and will look at whether all 10 are still strong buys today.\nIn some cases, the opportunity is even better now, in others, it may be time to lock in some gains.\n\nPhoto by VeranikaSmirnaya/iStock via Getty Images\nWe wrote an article at the end of December in which we showcased 10 attractive income stocks that traded at inexpensive valuations back then. This resulted in a combination of upside potential and above-average income for investors that bought these stocks at the time. In this article, we will look again at the same ten stocks to see what has changed and whether they are all still attractive at current valuations.\nTop 10 Value Picks For Dividend Investors\nOur choices in our original article included the following 10 stocks:\n- Bristol-Myers Squibb (BMY) and AbbVie (ABBV) in healthcare\n- MPLX (MPLX) and Enterprise Products (EPD) in energy\n- Prudential (PRU) and Citigroup (C) in financials\n- Simon Property Group (SPG) and W. P. Carey (WPC) in real estate\n- AT&T (T) in telecommunication\n- Intel (INTC) in tech\nLooking back one quarter later, we see that shares have performed like this:\nData by YCharts\nYear-to-date, they delivered an average return of 12% and a median return of 15%. Contrast this with the year-to-date return of 3% that was delivered by the S&P 500 index (SPY), and we see that our picks clearly outperformed the broad market, delivering 4-5 times the performance enjoyed by those that put their money into the index.\n2020 Versus 2021: Growth Versus Value\nThis was, I believe, partially the result of investing in high-yielding stocks that traded at very inexpensive valuations and were thus undervalued, but the portfolio also benefited from an overall shift in the market's focus.\n2020 was the year of growth stocks, which saw many \"growthy\" tech names generate very attractive gains. The same could be said about EV stocks, renewable stocks, etc., which all flourished last year thanks to an appetite for growth stocks and unprecedented monetary stimulus. In 2021, that has changed to some degree:\nData by YCharts\nIn the above chart, we see a very clear trend that emerged towards the end of February. The growth-heavy Nasdaq index (NASDAQ:QQQ) started to decline, underperforming the S&P 500 index this year, whereas the less techy, less growth-focused Dow Jones index (NYSEARCA:DIA) has beaten the S&P 500 so far in 2021. Looking at two ETFs that focus on either Value (VTV) or Growth(NYSEARCA:VUG), we see that the value theme clearly has been the winner so far this year, beating all three indexes, whereas the growth-themed ETF is down this year. The good news is that our basket of stocks still easily outperformed the Value ETF, which shows that we seem to have at least some skill when it comes to picking individual stocks (or maybe we got lucky).\nAre Those 10 Still Great Buys Today?\nSince some of these stocks have moved so much already in the first three months, they may not all be an opportune buy any longer, which is why we will take a quick look at all ten individually.\n1. AbbVie\nAbbVie was one of our two healthcare picks in the original article. The company combines many positives, including an above-average yield, a low valuation, and steady growth even during the pandemic. AbbVie's most recent quarterly results showcase its outstanding resilience during the current crisis: The company managed to grow its revenues across its portfolio, with Humira, Imbruvica, and its new drugs Skyrizi and Rinvoq showing a strong performance.\nEven better, the company guided earnings above consensus, forecasting earnings per share of $12.40 for the current year. Relative to its share price of $103, this means that shares got even cheaper since our December article, they are now trading for just 8.3 times forward earnings. In short, there is nothing not to like, and I believe that 5.1%-yielding AbbVie is a strong buy.\n2. Bristol-Myers Squibb\nBristol-Myers is the other healthcare pick in our original list. Like AbbVie, its shares were very inexpensive in December, and like AbbVie, it has continued to deliver strong operational results. Its most recent quarterly update included a 39% revenue growth rate compared to the previous year's quarter. This was impacted by one-time items from the Celgene takeover, but even adjusted for that, revenue growth came in at a strong 10% year over year.\nLike AbbVie, Bristol-Myers has also increased its earnings per share guidance for 2021, now forecasting profits of ~$7.30 per share. Since shares are essentially flat since the beginning of the year, investors get an even better deal right now in terms of Bristol-Myers' valuation, which stands at 8.3 times net profits right now. Bristol-Myers is also one of the stocks Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.A)(BRK.B) has continued to add to in the most recent quarter, which indicates that this is indeed a strong pick for value investors.\n3. MPLX\nMPLX is a natural gas midstream player that offered a great income yield in December, at almost 13%. On top of that, shares were very inexpensive, trading at a distributable cash flow yield of almost 19%.\nLike many other energy-related names, MPLX has performed very well in Q1, delivering a performance of almost 20% in three months. Nevertheless, shares are not at all expensive, trading at a single-digitearningsmultiple - even though earnings are generally a lot lower than cash flows for pipeline companies due to non-cash depreciation charges. Management believes that the company will have ample surplus cash this year, even after making its hefty dividend payments.\nIts CEO stated that shares are undervalued and that the company will likely do buybacks this year, which is a major positive. This will not only be highly accretive thanks to the low valuation shares are trading at, but should also further support the price. Shares are a less outstanding buy compared to December (or earlier in 2020), but they still look very compelling, we believe. They also still offer a very attractive dividend yield of 11% at today's price.\n4. Enterprise Products\nLike MPLX, Enterprise Products has performed well so far this year, on the back of enthusiasm for energy-related names. Its profits and cash flows are not really tied to the price of oil, but the market still bid up shares in recent months. The same had been true in 2020 when shares were sold off in tandem with other energy names, even though Enterprise Products' cash flows were not really impacted by lower oil prices.\nShares are up by double-digits so far this year, but Enterprise Products' shares are not at all expensive. Considering that shares are trading at just around 7 times this year's distributable cash flows, while shares offer a dividend yield of 8.1%, makes us believe that this is still a strong pick for income investors. The fact that management has been buying back shares is another tailwind that could gain relevance as growth spending slows down, which should free up more money for buybacks going forward. We thus still like Enterprise Products as a high-quality midstream company at current prices.\n5. Prudential Financial\nThis insurer has had a very solid 2020 and seeks to generate even stronger profits this year. Shares are up by double-digits so far this year but do not look expensive. With current forecasts seeing the company earn about $11.50 per share this year, and even more next year, shares trade at a ~8 times forward earnings multiple right now. The company continues to reward shareholders handsomely, as Prudential has raised its dividend by 5% in February.\nAt current prices, the stock yields 5.1%, which is quite attractive in a low-yield world. Management plans to return a total of $10 billion to the company's owners through 2023, which equates to shareholder returns in the 10% range. Investors can thus count on more dividend increases down the road, coupled with some buybacks that will be quite accretive as long as shares continue to trade at an inexpensive valuation. Shares were a better buy in December, but they still look solid today.\n6. Citigroup\nCitigroup was the only bank on our list, and I mainly chose it over peers due to its below-average valuation and above-average dividend yield. 2021 has been great for bank stocks so far, due to an overall shift to value stocks, combined with rising interest spreads that are beneficial for banks' earnings.\nShares rose by double-digits so far this year, hitting a high of $76 about two weeks ago. At that price, shares were trading above tangible book value, which stands at $73.80 right now, which is why I sold part of my position in the mid-$70s. Nevertheless, I did not sell my entire stake, as I feel that shares could rise above that level at some point in 2021, even though they have pulled back a little for now.\nThe fact that banks are allowed to return more capital to their owners this year could become a catalyst for share price gains in 2021, as Citigroup will likely seek to increase its dividend and ramp up share repurchases. Trading marginally below tangible book value and at around 10 times this year's earnings, Citigroup is not at all expensive, although also not an absolute bargain any longer. I am moderately bullish, but wouldn't buy more at current valuations.\n7. Simon Property\nSimon Property is the leading mall player in the US, especially following the close of its acquisition of Taubman. The company had a harsh 2020, but its assets will, we believe, remain in use for a long time. High-quality malls in major metropolitan areas will not lose their value due to online shopping, as retail space can be used for more experimental retail, restaurants, bars, co-working spaces, hotels, and so on.\nThis was our thesis throughout 2020, which is why we were very bullish on the stock when it traded at ultra-low valuations last year. In 2021, shares have, so far, returned almost 30%, as the market is increasingly realizing that the pandemic was not the end for high-quality retail real estate such as the properties that Simon Property owns. Shares breached $120 earlier in March but have pulled back a little for now.\nTrading at ~11 times this year's FFO, Simon Property is not an absolute bargain stock any longer. I personally believe that shares will rise back towards pre-crisis levels of $150+ eventually, but that may take some time, and there is not necessarily massive upside left in 2021. I continue to hold my Simon Property position and am bullish with a long-term view, but the best time to add this stock wasin 2020 when it traded at double-digits.\n8. W. P. Carey\nUnlike Simon Property, W. P. Carey has not risen a lot this year. Instead, shares are down slightly, potentially due to the fact that real estate investors moved towards more cyclical picks in the sector for the reopening trade. W. P. Carey is a rock-solid, low-risk income stock that offers a yield of 6.0% right here and that trades at 15 times forward FFO. This is an above-average valuation compared to the other stocks in this list, but that seems justified based on the fact that W. P. Carey has always traded at higher valuations than most of these stocks.\nAs income investors can still not generate attractive yields from bonds, they will, I believe, eventually flock back towards low-risk REITs such as W. P. Carey or Realty Income (O), which could propel shares of these companies back to pre-crisis levels. In W. P. Carey's case, they traded at around $90 before the pandemic, which equates to a yield of around 4.5%. A recovery to that level does not seem unrealistic, I believe, which is why I continue to see W. P. Carey as a moderate-return, low-risk stock, which makes it attractive from a risk-to-reward perspective.\n9. AT&T\nAT&T remains a battleground stock, with bulls touting the undervaluation and potential in streaming, while bears focus on the high debt load. We do not see AT&T as an extremely-high-quality pick, but the company's shares offer a solid yield of almost 7% and current management seems to have the right focus. Plans to monetize non-core assets, including DirecTV, are great, and the company plans to deleverage meaningfully over the coming years. AT&T is not a high-growth company and will not turn into one, but the fact that the performance of HBO Max has beaten management's expectations is a positive for sure. At less than 10 times net profits, AT&T remains quite inexpensive and if management executes on its plans, shares could deliver quite solid returns over the coming years.\n10. Intel\nIntel is a somewhat weird stock - the company executes well and grows steadily, but its shares see big swings up and down depending on whether investors are focusing on positive news items or negative news items at the moment. So far this year, they seem to do the prior, as shares have risen by 25% in just three months. This can't be explained by the underlying operational performance, which has been solid but didn't include growth of 20%+. Instead, the market is currently liking Intel's stock based on recent news such as a new CEO and plans to invest heavily to grow production capacity.\nI think the best time to buy Intel's shares is when the market is focusing on the bad news, whereas one may want to lock in gains when shares are trading at the top end of the recent valuation range. At 13.5 times forward earnings, Intel's shares trade at a premium to the median earnings multiple they have traded at over the last couple of years, thus I wouldn't buy here. Instead, locking in gains in the high $60s seemed like an opportune choice. I wouldn't be too surprised if shares fell back towards the mid-$50s or lower at some point during this year.\nTakeaway\nOur picks for 2020 have done very well so far, easily beating the market and even purely value-focused ETFs. However, not all of these stocks are necessarily still a great buy. I personally wouldn't buy Intel now, as the stock has already delivered easily more than 20% this year, and is trading at the higher end of the recent valuation range. On the other hand, some of our picks, such as AbbVie or W. P. Carey, are still priced very favorably and may even be a better buy right now compared to the beginning of the year.\nWe welcome you to share your comments on the above stocks, as well as your picks for the remainder of 2021!","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":76,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":324356564,"gmtCreate":1615968418958,"gmtModify":1703495641715,"author":{"id":"3569028586400878","authorId":"3569028586400878","name":"Miaw","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bd318611f16b0eb6de098c8b733c85fd","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3569028586400878","authorIdStr":"3569028586400878"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Never use but user of Lizi didn't provide a positive feedback","listText":"Never use but user of Lizi didn't provide a positive feedback","text":"Never use but user of Lizi didn't provide a positive feedback","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/324356564","repostId":"1108384446","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":118,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":366647411,"gmtCreate":1614480532033,"gmtModify":1703477734756,"author":{"id":"3569028586400878","authorId":"3569028586400878","name":"Miaw","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bd318611f16b0eb6de098c8b733c85fd","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3569028586400878","authorIdStr":"3569028586400878"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"人民等着呢","listText":"人民等着呢","text":"人民等着呢","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/366647411","repostId":"1151349460","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":164,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":387297471,"gmtCreate":1613748038993,"gmtModify":1634552375104,"author":{"id":"3569028586400878","authorId":"3569028586400878","name":"Miaw","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bd318611f16b0eb6de098c8b733c85fd","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3569028586400878","authorIdStr":"3569028586400878"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Does pltr really rebounce?&nbsp;","listText":"Does pltr really rebounce?&nbsp;","text":"Does pltr really rebounce?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/387297471","repostId":"2112084553","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2112084553","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Dow Jones publishes the world’s most trusted business news and financial information in a variety of media.","home_visible":0,"media_name":"Dow Jones","id":"106","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/150f88aa4d182df19190059f4a365e99"},"pubTimestamp":1613743320,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2112084553?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-02-19 22:02","market":"hk","language":"en","title":"Palantir's stock bounces sharply, is set to snap a 6-day losing streak","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2112084553","media":"Dow Jones","summary":"MW Palantir's stock bounces sharply, is set to snap a 6-day losing streak\n\n\n  Shares of Palantir Tec","content":"<html><body><font class=\"NormalMinus1\" face=\"Arial\">\n<p>\nMW Palantir's stock bounces sharply, is set to snap a 6-day losing streak\n</p>\n<p>\n  Shares of <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PLTR\">Palantir Technologies Inc.</a> (PLTR) surged 7.3% in premarket trading Friday, to put them on track to snap a record-long losing streak, which was fueled by a lockup expiration and disappointing quarterly results  has has advanced 27.3% and the S&amp;P 500  has gained 9.3%. \n</p>\n<p>\n  -Tomi Kilgore; 415-439-6400; AskNewswires@dowjones.com \n</p>\n<pre>\n \n</pre>\n<p>\n  <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/END\">$(END)$</a> Dow Jones Newswires\n</p>\n<p>\n  February 19, 2021 09:02 ET (14:02 GMT)\n</p>\n<p>\n  Copyright (c) 2021 Dow Jones &amp; Company, Inc.\n</p>\n</font></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Palantir's stock bounces sharply, is set to snap a 6-day losing streak</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; 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}\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nPalantir's stock bounces sharply, is set to snap a 6-day losing streak\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<div class=\"head\" \">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/150f88aa4d182df19190059f4a365e99);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Dow Jones </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2021-02-19 22:02</p>\n</div>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><body><font class=\"NormalMinus1\" face=\"Arial\">\n<p>\nMW Palantir's stock bounces sharply, is set to snap a 6-day losing streak\n</p>\n<p>\n  Shares of <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PLTR\">Palantir Technologies Inc.</a> (PLTR) surged 7.3% in premarket trading Friday, to put them on track to snap a record-long losing streak, which was fueled by a lockup expiration and disappointing quarterly results  has has advanced 27.3% and the S&amp;P 500  has gained 9.3%. \n</p>\n<p>\n  -Tomi Kilgore; 415-439-6400; AskNewswires@dowjones.com \n</p>\n<pre>\n \n</pre>\n<p>\n  <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/END\">$(END)$</a> Dow Jones Newswires\n</p>\n<p>\n  February 19, 2021 09:02 ET (14:02 GMT)\n</p>\n<p>\n  Copyright (c) 2021 Dow Jones &amp; Company, Inc.\n</p>\n</font></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"PLTR":"Palantir Technologies Inc.","IPO":"Renaissance IPO ETF"},"source_url":"http://dowjonesnews.com/newdjn/logon.aspx?AL=N","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2112084553","content_text":"MW Palantir's stock bounces sharply, is set to snap a 6-day losing streak\n\n\n  Shares of Palantir Technologies Inc. (PLTR) surged 7.3% in premarket trading Friday, to put them on track to snap a record-long losing streak, which was fueled by a lockup expiration and disappointing quarterly results  has has advanced 27.3% and the S&P 500  has gained 9.3%. \n\n\n  -Tomi Kilgore; 415-439-6400; AskNewswires@dowjones.com \n\n\n \n\n\n$(END)$ Dow Jones Newswires\n\n\n  February 19, 2021 09:02 ET (14:02 GMT)\n\n\n  Copyright (c) 2021 Dow Jones & Company, Inc.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":63,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":384969573,"gmtCreate":1613607274092,"gmtModify":1634552986000,"author":{"id":"3569028586400878","authorId":"3569028586400878","name":"Miaw","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bd318611f16b0eb6de098c8b733c85fd","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3569028586400878","authorIdStr":"3569028586400878"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"No retracement? Go up all the way?&nbsp;","listText":"No retracement? Go up all the way?&nbsp;","text":"No retracement? Go up all the way?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":7,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/384969573","repostId":"1167472357","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":23,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}