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2021-04-06

You sure you know?

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2021-04-06

Looking good

Opinion: Financial crises get triggered about every 10 years — Archegos might be right on time<blockquote>观点：金融危机大约每10年就会引发一次——Archegos可能准时出现</blockquote>

2021-04-01

Gogogo

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2021-03-31

Like and comment if you need the same

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2021-03-30

Tell me your opinion about this news...

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2021-03-30

Like and comment if you need the same

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2021-03-29

Well most stocks are going down anyway so whocares

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2021-03-26

Comment and like if you want the same

Stay bullish on the stock market in the face of some fresh sell signals<blockquote>面对一些新的卖出信号，保持看涨股市</blockquote>

2021-03-25

Like and comment if you want the same

Jobless claims preview: Another 730,000 Americans likely filed new unemployment claims<blockquote>初请失业金人数预览：另有73万美国人可能申请新的初请失业金</blockquote>

2021-03-23

Comment and like if you need the same

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2021-03-20

No faith in it

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2021-03-15

Nice move [开心]

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2021-03-09

When will this correction come to an end?

2021-03-08

Rebound is real or just another trap?

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2021-03-06

Pltr stonk

Palantir plunged more than 13%<blockquote>Palantir暴跌超13%</blockquote>

2021-03-05

$Butterfly Network Inc(BFLY)$Nice! Lost all my lgvw gain!

2021-03-04

Wow

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2021-03-03

Quest time

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2021-02-03

合拼以后， LGVW 的股份会怎么样？有谁在持有LGVW股的？

去老虎APP查看更多动态

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sure you know?","listText":"&nbsp;You sure you know?","text":"You sure you know?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/343802179","repostId":"2125757547","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1047,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":343806707,"gmtCreate":1617697946609,"gmtModify":1634297055662,"author":{"id":"3568069882275792","authorId":"3568069882275792","name":"NoviceK","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/717a700218452fb1ccf7954943014836","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3568069882275792","authorIdStr":"3568069882275792"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Looking good","listText":"Looking good","text":"Looking good","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/343806707","repostId":"1101907559","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1101907559","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1617672655,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1101907559?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-04-06 09:30","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Opinion: Financial crises get triggered about every 10 years — Archegos might be right on time<blockquote>观点：金融危机大约每10年就会引发一次——Archegos可能准时出现</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1101907559","media":"marketwatch","summary":"No one, for now, can say for sure that the so-called family office’s billions in investment losses won’t spread.Financial crises are never quite the same. During the late 1980s, nearly a third of the nation’s savings and loan associations failed, ending with a taxpayer bailout — in 2021 terms — of about $265 billion.In 1997-1998, financial crises in Asia and Russia led to the near meltdown of the largest hedge fund in the U.S. —Long-Term Capital Management. Its reach and operating practices were","content":"<p>  <b>No one, for now, can say for sure that the so-called family office’s billions in investment losses won’t spread.</b>  Financial crises are never quite the same. During the late 1980s, nearly a third of the nation’s savings and loan associations failed, ending with a taxpayer bailout — in 2021 terms — of about $265 billion.</p><p><blockquote><b>目前，没有人能肯定地说，所谓的家族办公室数十亿美元的投资损失不会蔓延。</b>金融危机从来都不完全一样。20世纪80年代末，美国近三分之一的储蓄和贷款协会倒闭，最终获得了约2650亿美元的纳税人救助（按2021年计算）。</blockquote></p><p> In 1997-1998, financial crises in Asia and Russia led to the near meltdown of the largest hedge fund in the U.S. —Long-Term Capital Management(LTCM). Its reach and operating practices were such that Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan said that when LTCM failed, “he had never seen anything in his lifetime that compared to the terror” he felt. LTCM was deemed “too big to fail,” and he engineered a bailout by 14 major U.S. financial institutions.</p><p><blockquote>1997-1998年，亚洲和俄国的金融危机导致美国最大的对冲基金——长期资本管理公司（LTCM）几近崩溃。它的影响力和运营实践如此之大，以至于美联储主席艾伦·格林斯潘说，当LTCM失败时，“他一生中从未见过任何与他所感受到的恐怖相比的事情”。LTCM被认为“太大而不能倒”，他策划了对14家美国主要金融机构的救助。</blockquote></p><p> Exactly a decade later, too much leverage by some of those very institutions, and the bursting of a U.S. real estate bubble, led to the near collapse of the U.S. financial system. Once again, big banks were deemed too big to fail and taxpayers came to the rescue.</p><p><blockquote>整整十年后，其中一些机构的过度杠杆化，以及美国房地产泡沫的破裂，导致美国金融体系几近崩溃。大银行再一次被认为太大而不能倒，纳税人前来救援。</blockquote></p><p> The trend? Every 10 years or so, and they all look different.&nbsp;Are we in the early stages of a new crisis now, with the blowup at the family office Archegos Capital Management LP?</p><p><blockquote>趋势？每隔10年左右，它们看起来都不一样。随着家族办公室Archegos Capital Management LP的爆发，我们现在是否正处于新危机的早期阶段？</blockquote></p><p> A family office, for the uninitiated, is a private wealth management vehicle for the ultra-wealthy. Here’s what I mean by ultra-wealthy: Consulting firm EY estimates there are some 10,000 family offices globally, but manage, says a separate estimate by market research firm Campden Research, nearly $6 trillion. That $6 trillion is likely far higher now given that it’s based on 2019 data.</p><p><blockquote>对于外行人来说，家族办公室是超级富豪的私人财富管理工具。这就是我所说的超级富豪的意思：咨询公司安永估计全球约有10,000个家族理财室，但市场研究公司Campden Research的另一项估计称，管理家族理财室的规模接近6万亿美元。鉴于这6万亿美元是基于2019年的数据，现在可能要高得多。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Unregulated money managers</b></p><p><blockquote><b>不受监管的基金经理</b></blockquote></p><p> Here’s the potential danger. Family offices generally aren’t regulated. The 1940 Investment Advisers Act says firms with 15 clients or fewer don’t have to register with the Securities and Exchange Commission. What this means is that trillions of dollars are in play and no one can really say who’s running the money, what it’s invested in, how much leverage is being used, and what kind of counterparty risk may exist. (Counterparty risk is the probability that one party involved in a financial transaction could default on a contractual obligation to someone else.)</p><p><blockquote>这是潜在的危险。家族理财室通常不受监管。1940年《投资顾问法》规定，拥有15名或更少客户的公司无需向美国证券交易委员会注册。这意味着数万亿美元正在发挥作用，没有人能真正说出谁在管理这笔钱，它投资于什么，使用了多少杠杆，以及可能存在什么样的交易对手风险。（交易对手风险是指参与金融交易的一方可能违反对另一方的合同义务的概率。）</blockquote></p><p> This appears to be the case with Archegos. The firm bet heavily on certain Chinese stocks, including e-commerce player&nbsp;Vipshop Holdings&nbsp;Ltd.VIPS,-1.19%,U.S.-listed Chinese tutoring company&nbsp;GSX Techedu&nbsp;Inc.GSX,-10.63%and U.S. media companiesViacomCBS&nbsp;Inc.VIAC,-3.90%and&nbsp;Discovery&nbsp;Inc.DISCA,-3.86%,among others. Share prices have tumbled lately, sparking large sales — some $30 billion — by Archegos.</p><p><blockquote>Archegos似乎就是这种情况。该公司大举押注某些中国股票，包括电子商务公司唯品会控股有限公司VIPS，-1.19%，在美国上市的中国家教公司跟谁学GSX，-10.63%，以及美国媒体公司维亚康姆哥伦比亚广播公司VIAC，-3.90%和Discovery Inc.DISCA，-3.86%等。最近股价暴跌，引发Archegos的大量抛售（约300亿美元）。</blockquote></p><p> The problem is that only about a third of that, or $10 billion, was its own money. We now know that Archegos worked with some of the biggest names on Wall Street, including&nbsp;Credit Suisse Group AGCS,+1.59%,UBS Group AGUBS,+1.01%,Goldman Sachs Group Inc.GS,-1.25%,&nbsp;Morgan StanleyMS,-0.28%,Deutsche Bank AGDB,+0.74%and Nomura Holdings Inc.&nbsp;NMR,+1.87%.</p><p><blockquote>问题是，其中只有大约三分之一，即100亿美元，是它自己的钱。我们现在知道Archegos与华尔街的一些大牌合作，包括瑞士信贷集团AGCS，+1.59%，瑞银集团AGUBS，+1.01%，高盛集团Inc.GS，-1.25%，摩根士丹利MS，-0.28%，德意志银行AGDB，+0.74%，野村控股公司NMR，+1.87%。</blockquote></p><p> But since family offices are largely allowed to operate unregulated, who’s to say how much money is really involved here and what the extent of market risk is? My colleague Mark DeCambre&nbsp;reported last week that Archegos’ true exposures to bad trades could actuallybe closer to $100 billion.</p><p><blockquote>但由于家族办公室在很大程度上被允许不受监管地运营，谁能说这里真正涉及多少资金以及市场风险有多大？我的同事Mark DeCambre上周报告称，Archegos对不良交易的真实敞口实际上可能接近1000亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Danger of counterparty risk</b></p><p><blockquote><b>交易对手风险的危险性</b></blockquote></p><p> This is where counterparty risk comes in. As Archegos’ bets went south, the above banks — looking at losses of their own — hit the firm with margin calls. Deutsche quickly dumped about $4 billion in holdings, while Goldman and Morgan Stanley are also said to have unwound their positions, perhaps limiting their downside.</p><p><blockquote>这就是交易对手风险的用武之地。随着Archegos的赌注落空，上述银行考虑到自己的损失，以保证金评级打击了该公司。德意志银行迅速抛售了约40亿美元的持股，而高盛和摩根士丹利据说也已平仓，这或许限制了它们的下跌空间。</blockquote></p><p> So is this a financial crisis? It doesn’t appear to be. Even so, the Securities and Exchange Commission has opened a preliminary investigation into Archegos and its founder, Bill Hwang.</p><p><blockquote>那么这是金融危机吗？似乎不是。即便如此，美国证券交易委员会还是对Archegos及其创始人Bill Hwang展开了初步调查。</blockquote></p><p> One peer, Tom Lee, the research chief of Fundstrat Global Advisors, calls Hwang one of the “top 10 of the best investment minds” he knows.</p><p><blockquote>Fundstrat Global Advisors的研究主管Tom Lee是他认识的“十大最佳投资头脑”之一的评级·黄。</blockquote></p><p> But federal regulators may have a lesser opinion. In 2012, Hwang’s former hedge fund, Tiger Asia Management, pleaded guilty and paid more than $60 million in penalties after it was accused of trading on illegal tips about Chinese banks. The SEC banned Hwang from managing money on behalf of clients — essentially booting him from the hedge fund industry. So Hwang opened Archegos, and again, family offices aren’t generally aren’t regulated.</p><p><blockquote>但联邦监管机构的意见可能较少。2012年，黄禹锡的前对冲基金老虎亚洲管理公司(Tiger Asia Management)认罪并支付了超过6000万美元的罚款，此前该公司被指控利用有关中国银行的非法线索进行交易。美国证券交易委员会禁止黄禹锡代表客户管理资金——实质上是将他踢出对冲基金行业。因此，Hwang开设了Archegos，同样，家族理财室通常不受监管。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Yellen on the case</b></p><p><blockquote><b>耶伦谈此案</b></blockquote></p><p> This issue is on Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen’s radar. She said last week that greater oversight of these private corners of the financial industry is needed. The Financial Stability Oversight Council (FSOC), which she oversees, has revived a task force to help agencies better “share data, identify risks and work to strengthen our financial system.”</p><p><blockquote>这个问题引起了财政部长珍妮特·耶伦的关注。她上周表示，需要加强对金融业这些私人角落的监管。她监管的金融稳定监督委员会（FSOC）重新成立了一个工作组，以帮助各机构更好地“共享数据、识别风险并努力加强我们的金融体系”。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> Most financial crises end up with American taxpayers getting stuck with the tab. Gains belong to the risk-takers. But losses — they belong to us. To paraphrase Abe Lincoln, family offices — a multi-trillion dollar industry largely allowed to operate in the shadows in a global financial system that is more intertwined than ever — are of the super-wealthy, by the super-wealthy and for the super-wealthy. And no one else.</p><p><blockquote>大多数金融危机最终都是美国纳税人陷入困境。收益属于冒险者。但是损失——它们属于我们。套用亚伯·林肯（Abe Lincoln）的话，家族办公室——一个价值数万亿美元的行业，在一个比以往任何时候都更加交织在一起的全球金融体系中，很大程度上被允许在阴影中运作——属于超级富豪，由超级富豪经营，为超级富豪服务。没有其他人。</blockquote></p><p> The Archegos collapse may or may not be the beginning of yet another financial crisis. But who’s to say what thousands of other family offices are doing with their trillions, and whether similar problems could blow up?</p><p><blockquote>Archegos的倒闭可能是也可能不是另一场金融危机的开始。但谁能说其他数千家家族理财室正在用他们的数万亿美元做什么，以及类似的问题是否会爆发？</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1603348471595","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Opinion: Financial crises get triggered about every 10 years — Archegos might be right on time<blockquote>观点：金融危机大约每10年就会引发一次——Archegos可能准时出现</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nOpinion: Financial crises get triggered about every 10 years — Archegos might be right on time<blockquote>观点：金融危机大约每10年就会引发一次——Archegos可能准时出现</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">marketwatch</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-04-06 09:30</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>  <b>No one, for now, can say for sure that the so-called family office’s billions in investment losses won’t spread.</b>  Financial crises are never quite the same. During the late 1980s, nearly a third of the nation’s savings and loan associations failed, ending with a taxpayer bailout — in 2021 terms — of about $265 billion.</p><p><blockquote><b>目前，没有人能肯定地说，所谓的家族办公室数十亿美元的投资损失不会蔓延。</b>金融危机从来都不完全一样。20世纪80年代末，美国近三分之一的储蓄和贷款协会倒闭，最终获得了约2650亿美元的纳税人救助（按2021年计算）。</blockquote></p><p> In 1997-1998, financial crises in Asia and Russia led to the near meltdown of the largest hedge fund in the U.S. —Long-Term Capital Management(LTCM). Its reach and operating practices were such that Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan said that when LTCM failed, “he had never seen anything in his lifetime that compared to the terror” he felt. LTCM was deemed “too big to fail,” and he engineered a bailout by 14 major U.S. financial institutions.</p><p><blockquote>1997-1998年，亚洲和俄国的金融危机导致美国最大的对冲基金——长期资本管理公司（LTCM）几近崩溃。它的影响力和运营实践如此之大，以至于美联储主席艾伦·格林斯潘说，当LTCM失败时，“他一生中从未见过任何与他所感受到的恐怖相比的事情”。LTCM被认为“太大而不能倒”，他策划了对14家美国主要金融机构的救助。</blockquote></p><p> Exactly a decade later, too much leverage by some of those very institutions, and the bursting of a U.S. real estate bubble, led to the near collapse of the U.S. financial system. Once again, big banks were deemed too big to fail and taxpayers came to the rescue.</p><p><blockquote>整整十年后，其中一些机构的过度杠杆化，以及美国房地产泡沫的破裂，导致美国金融体系几近崩溃。大银行再一次被认为太大而不能倒，纳税人前来救援。</blockquote></p><p> The trend? Every 10 years or so, and they all look different.&nbsp;Are we in the early stages of a new crisis now, with the blowup at the family office Archegos Capital Management LP?</p><p><blockquote>趋势？每隔10年左右，它们看起来都不一样。随着家族办公室Archegos Capital Management LP的爆发，我们现在是否正处于新危机的早期阶段？</blockquote></p><p> A family office, for the uninitiated, is a private wealth management vehicle for the ultra-wealthy. Here’s what I mean by ultra-wealthy: Consulting firm EY estimates there are some 10,000 family offices globally, but manage, says a separate estimate by market research firm Campden Research, nearly $6 trillion. That $6 trillion is likely far higher now given that it’s based on 2019 data.</p><p><blockquote>对于外行人来说，家族办公室是超级富豪的私人财富管理工具。这就是我所说的超级富豪的意思：咨询公司安永估计全球约有10,000个家族理财室，但市场研究公司Campden Research的另一项估计称，管理家族理财室的规模接近6万亿美元。鉴于这6万亿美元是基于2019年的数据，现在可能要高得多。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Unregulated money managers</b></p><p><blockquote><b>不受监管的基金经理</b></blockquote></p><p> Here’s the potential danger. Family offices generally aren’t regulated. The 1940 Investment Advisers Act says firms with 15 clients or fewer don’t have to register with the Securities and Exchange Commission. What this means is that trillions of dollars are in play and no one can really say who’s running the money, what it’s invested in, how much leverage is being used, and what kind of counterparty risk may exist. (Counterparty risk is the probability that one party involved in a financial transaction could default on a contractual obligation to someone else.)</p><p><blockquote>这是潜在的危险。家族理财室通常不受监管。1940年《投资顾问法》规定，拥有15名或更少客户的公司无需向美国证券交易委员会注册。这意味着数万亿美元正在发挥作用，没有人能真正说出谁在管理这笔钱，它投资于什么，使用了多少杠杆，以及可能存在什么样的交易对手风险。（交易对手风险是指参与金融交易的一方可能违反对另一方的合同义务的概率。）</blockquote></p><p> This appears to be the case with Archegos. The firm bet heavily on certain Chinese stocks, including e-commerce player&nbsp;Vipshop Holdings&nbsp;Ltd.VIPS,-1.19%,U.S.-listed Chinese tutoring company&nbsp;GSX Techedu&nbsp;Inc.GSX,-10.63%and U.S. media companiesViacomCBS&nbsp;Inc.VIAC,-3.90%and&nbsp;Discovery&nbsp;Inc.DISCA,-3.86%,among others. Share prices have tumbled lately, sparking large sales — some $30 billion — by Archegos.</p><p><blockquote>Archegos似乎就是这种情况。该公司大举押注某些中国股票，包括电子商务公司唯品会控股有限公司VIPS，-1.19%，在美国上市的中国家教公司跟谁学GSX，-10.63%，以及美国媒体公司维亚康姆哥伦比亚广播公司VIAC，-3.90%和Discovery Inc.DISCA，-3.86%等。最近股价暴跌，引发Archegos的大量抛售（约300亿美元）。</blockquote></p><p> The problem is that only about a third of that, or $10 billion, was its own money. We now know that Archegos worked with some of the biggest names on Wall Street, including&nbsp;Credit Suisse Group AGCS,+1.59%,UBS Group AGUBS,+1.01%,Goldman Sachs Group Inc.GS,-1.25%,&nbsp;Morgan StanleyMS,-0.28%,Deutsche Bank AGDB,+0.74%and Nomura Holdings Inc.&nbsp;NMR,+1.87%.</p><p><blockquote>问题是，其中只有大约三分之一，即100亿美元，是它自己的钱。我们现在知道Archegos与华尔街的一些大牌合作，包括瑞士信贷集团AGCS，+1.59%，瑞银集团AGUBS，+1.01%，高盛集团Inc.GS，-1.25%，摩根士丹利MS，-0.28%，德意志银行AGDB，+0.74%，野村控股公司NMR，+1.87%。</blockquote></p><p> But since family offices are largely allowed to operate unregulated, who’s to say how much money is really involved here and what the extent of market risk is? My colleague Mark DeCambre&nbsp;reported last week that Archegos’ true exposures to bad trades could actuallybe closer to $100 billion.</p><p><blockquote>但由于家族办公室在很大程度上被允许不受监管地运营，谁能说这里真正涉及多少资金以及市场风险有多大？我的同事Mark DeCambre上周报告称，Archegos对不良交易的真实敞口实际上可能接近1000亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Danger of counterparty risk</b></p><p><blockquote><b>交易对手风险的危险性</b></blockquote></p><p> This is where counterparty risk comes in. As Archegos’ bets went south, the above banks — looking at losses of their own — hit the firm with margin calls. Deutsche quickly dumped about $4 billion in holdings, while Goldman and Morgan Stanley are also said to have unwound their positions, perhaps limiting their downside.</p><p><blockquote>这就是交易对手风险的用武之地。随着Archegos的赌注落空，上述银行考虑到自己的损失，以保证金评级打击了该公司。德意志银行迅速抛售了约40亿美元的持股，而高盛和摩根士丹利据说也已平仓，这或许限制了它们的下跌空间。</blockquote></p><p> So is this a financial crisis? It doesn’t appear to be. Even so, the Securities and Exchange Commission has opened a preliminary investigation into Archegos and its founder, Bill Hwang.</p><p><blockquote>那么这是金融危机吗？似乎不是。即便如此，美国证券交易委员会还是对Archegos及其创始人Bill Hwang展开了初步调查。</blockquote></p><p> One peer, Tom Lee, the research chief of Fundstrat Global Advisors, calls Hwang one of the “top 10 of the best investment minds” he knows.</p><p><blockquote>Fundstrat Global Advisors的研究主管Tom Lee是他认识的“十大最佳投资头脑”之一的评级·黄。</blockquote></p><p> But federal regulators may have a lesser opinion. In 2012, Hwang’s former hedge fund, Tiger Asia Management, pleaded guilty and paid more than $60 million in penalties after it was accused of trading on illegal tips about Chinese banks. The SEC banned Hwang from managing money on behalf of clients — essentially booting him from the hedge fund industry. So Hwang opened Archegos, and again, family offices aren’t generally aren’t regulated.</p><p><blockquote>但联邦监管机构的意见可能较少。2012年，黄禹锡的前对冲基金老虎亚洲管理公司(Tiger Asia Management)认罪并支付了超过6000万美元的罚款，此前该公司被指控利用有关中国银行的非法线索进行交易。美国证券交易委员会禁止黄禹锡代表客户管理资金——实质上是将他踢出对冲基金行业。因此，Hwang开设了Archegos，同样，家族理财室通常不受监管。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Yellen on the case</b></p><p><blockquote><b>耶伦谈此案</b></blockquote></p><p> This issue is on Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen’s radar. She said last week that greater oversight of these private corners of the financial industry is needed. The Financial Stability Oversight Council (FSOC), which she oversees, has revived a task force to help agencies better “share data, identify risks and work to strengthen our financial system.”</p><p><blockquote>这个问题引起了财政部长珍妮特·耶伦的关注。她上周表示，需要加强对金融业这些私人角落的监管。她监管的金融稳定监督委员会（FSOC）重新成立了一个工作组，以帮助各机构更好地“共享数据、识别风险并努力加强我们的金融体系”。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> Most financial crises end up with American taxpayers getting stuck with the tab. Gains belong to the risk-takers. But losses — they belong to us. To paraphrase Abe Lincoln, family offices — a multi-trillion dollar industry largely allowed to operate in the shadows in a global financial system that is more intertwined than ever — are of the super-wealthy, by the super-wealthy and for the super-wealthy. And no one else.</p><p><blockquote>大多数金融危机最终都是美国纳税人陷入困境。收益属于冒险者。但是损失——它们属于我们。套用亚伯·林肯（Abe Lincoln）的话，家族办公室——一个价值数万亿美元的行业，在一个比以往任何时候都更加交织在一起的全球金融体系中，很大程度上被允许在阴影中运作——属于超级富豪，由超级富豪经营，为超级富豪服务。没有其他人。</blockquote></p><p> The Archegos collapse may or may not be the beginning of yet another financial crisis. But who’s to say what thousands of other family offices are doing with their trillions, and whether similar problems could blow up?</p><p><blockquote>Archegos的倒闭可能是也可能不是另一场金融危机的开始。但谁能说其他数千家家族理财室正在用他们的数万亿美元做什么，以及类似的问题是否会爆发？</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/financial-crises-happen-about-every-10-years-which-makes-the-archegos-meltdown-unnerving-11617634942?mod=home-page\">marketwatch</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","SPY":"标普500ETF",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/financial-crises-happen-about-every-10-years-which-makes-the-archegos-meltdown-unnerving-11617634942?mod=home-page","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1101907559","content_text":"No one, for now, can say for sure that the so-called family office’s billions in investment losses won’t spread.\n\nFinancial crises are never quite the same. During the late 1980s, nearly a third of the nation’s savings and loan associations failed, ending with a taxpayer bailout — in 2021 terms — of about $265 billion.\nIn 1997-1998, financial crises in Asia and Russia led to the near meltdown of the largest hedge fund in the U.S. —Long-Term Capital Management(LTCM). Its reach and operating practices were such that Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan said that when LTCM failed, “he had never seen anything in his lifetime that compared to the terror” he felt. LTCM was deemed “too big to fail,” and he engineered a bailout by 14 major U.S. financial institutions.\nExactly a decade later, too much leverage by some of those very institutions, and the bursting of a U.S. real estate bubble, led to the near collapse of the U.S. financial system. Once again, big banks were deemed too big to fail and taxpayers came to the rescue.\nThe trend? Every 10 years or so, and they all look different. Are we in the early stages of a new crisis now, with the blowup at the family office Archegos Capital Management LP?\nA family office, for the uninitiated, is a private wealth management vehicle for the ultra-wealthy. Here’s what I mean by ultra-wealthy: Consulting firm EY estimates there are some 10,000 family offices globally, but manage, says a separate estimate by market research firm Campden Research, nearly $6 trillion. That $6 trillion is likely far higher now given that it’s based on 2019 data.\nUnregulated money managers\nHere’s the potential danger. Family offices generally aren’t regulated. The 1940 Investment Advisers Act says firms with 15 clients or fewer don’t have to register with the Securities and Exchange Commission. What this means is that trillions of dollars are in play and no one can really say who’s running the money, what it’s invested in, how much leverage is being used, and what kind of counterparty risk may exist. (Counterparty risk is the probability that one party involved in a financial transaction could default on a contractual obligation to someone else.)\nThis appears to be the case with Archegos. The firm bet heavily on certain Chinese stocks, including e-commerce player Vipshop Holdings Ltd.VIPS,-1.19%,U.S.-listed Chinese tutoring company GSX Techedu Inc.GSX,-10.63%and U.S. media companiesViacomCBS Inc.VIAC,-3.90%and Discovery Inc.DISCA,-3.86%,among others. Share prices have tumbled lately, sparking large sales — some $30 billion — by Archegos.\nThe problem is that only about a third of that, or $10 billion, was its own money. We now know that Archegos worked with some of the biggest names on Wall Street, including Credit Suisse Group AGCS,+1.59%,UBS Group AGUBS,+1.01%,Goldman Sachs Group Inc.GS,-1.25%, Morgan StanleyMS,-0.28%,Deutsche Bank AGDB,+0.74%and Nomura Holdings Inc. NMR,+1.87%.\nBut since family offices are largely allowed to operate unregulated, who’s to say how much money is really involved here and what the extent of market risk is? My colleague Mark DeCambre reported last week that Archegos’ true exposures to bad trades could actuallybe closer to $100 billion.\nDanger of counterparty risk\nThis is where counterparty risk comes in. As Archegos’ bets went south, the above banks — looking at losses of their own — hit the firm with margin calls. Deutsche quickly dumped about $4 billion in holdings, while Goldman and Morgan Stanley are also said to have unwound their positions, perhaps limiting their downside.\nSo is this a financial crisis? It doesn’t appear to be. Even so, the Securities and Exchange Commission has opened a preliminary investigation into Archegos and its founder, Bill Hwang.\nOne peer, Tom Lee, the research chief of Fundstrat Global Advisors, calls Hwang one of the “top 10 of the best investment minds” he knows.\nBut federal regulators may have a lesser opinion. In 2012, Hwang’s former hedge fund, Tiger Asia Management, pleaded guilty and paid more than $60 million in penalties after it was accused of trading on illegal tips about Chinese banks. The SEC banned Hwang from managing money on behalf of clients — essentially booting him from the hedge fund industry. So Hwang opened Archegos, and again, family offices aren’t generally aren’t regulated.\nYellen on the case\nThis issue is on Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen’s radar. She said last week that greater oversight of these private corners of the financial industry is needed. The Financial Stability Oversight Council (FSOC), which she oversees, has revived a task force to help agencies better “share data, identify risks and work to strengthen our financial system.”\nMost financial crises end up with American taxpayers getting stuck with the tab. Gains belong to the risk-takers. But losses — they belong to us. To paraphrase Abe Lincoln, family offices — a multi-trillion dollar industry largely allowed to operate in the shadows in a global financial system that is more intertwined than ever — are of the super-wealthy, by the super-wealthy and for the super-wealthy. And no one else.\nThe Archegos collapse may or may not be the beginning of yet another financial crisis. But who’s to say what thousands of other family offices are doing with their trillions, and whether similar problems could blow up?","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".IXIC":0.9,".DJI":0.9,"SPY":0.9,".SPX":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2148,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":357848785,"gmtCreate":1617263714247,"gmtModify":1634521742702,"author":{"id":"3568069882275792","authorId":"3568069882275792","name":"NoviceK","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/717a700218452fb1ccf7954943014836","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3568069882275792","authorIdStr":"3568069882275792"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Gogogo","listText":"Gogogo","text":"Gogogo","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/357848785","repostId":"2124202817","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1006,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":354226022,"gmtCreate":1617180476466,"gmtModify":1634522233108,"author":{"id":"3568069882275792","authorId":"3568069882275792","name":"NoviceK","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/717a700218452fb1ccf7954943014836","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3568069882275792","authorIdStr":"3568069882275792"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Like and comment if you need the same","listText":"Like and comment if you need the same","text":"Like and comment if you need the same","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/354226022","repostId":"1163996400","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2614,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":355217343,"gmtCreate":1617075386482,"gmtModify":1634522792953,"author":{"id":"3568069882275792","authorId":"3568069882275792","name":"NoviceK","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/717a700218452fb1ccf7954943014836","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3568069882275792","authorIdStr":"3568069882275792"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Tell me your opinion about this news...","listText":"Tell me your opinion about this news...","text":"Tell me your opinion about this news...","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/355217343","repostId":"2123126131","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1144,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":355214795,"gmtCreate":1617075378417,"gmtModify":1634522793074,"author":{"id":"3568069882275792","authorId":"3568069882275792","name":"NoviceK","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/717a700218452fb1ccf7954943014836","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3568069882275792","authorIdStr":"3568069882275792"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Like and comment if you need the same","listText":"Like and comment if you need the same","text":"Like and comment if you need the same","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/355214795","repostId":"2123126131","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2538,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":352760036,"gmtCreate":1617005672925,"gmtModify":1634523188380,"author":{"id":"3568069882275792","authorId":"3568069882275792","name":"NoviceK","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/717a700218452fb1ccf7954943014836","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3568069882275792","authorIdStr":"3568069882275792"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Well most stocks are going down anyway so whocares&nbsp;","listText":"Well most stocks are going down anyway so whocares&nbsp;","text":"Well most stocks are going down anyway so whocares","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/352760036","repostId":"1131499409","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1134,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":358721564,"gmtCreate":1616732710558,"gmtModify":1634524300643,"author":{"id":"3568069882275792","authorId":"3568069882275792","name":"NoviceK","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/717a700218452fb1ccf7954943014836","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3568069882275792","authorIdStr":"3568069882275792"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Comment and like if you want the same","listText":"Comment and like if you want the same","text":"Comment and like if you want the same","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/358721564","repostId":"1100799979","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1100799979","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1616730844,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1100799979?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-03-26 11:54","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Stay bullish on the stock market in the face of some fresh sell signals<blockquote>面对一些新的卖出信号，保持看涨股市</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1100799979","media":"marketwatch","summary":"The stock market continues to be led by the Dow Jones Industrial Average,with NASDAQ lagging noticea","content":"<p>The stock market continues to be led by the Dow Jones Industrial Average,with NASDAQ&nbsp;lagging noticeably behind, and the S&amp;P 500 indexcaught somewhere in the middle. This is not a good scenario for stocks.</p><p><blockquote>股市继续由道琼斯工业平均指数领涨，纳斯达克明显落后，标普500指数介于两者之间。对于股票来说，这不是一个好的情况。</blockquote></p><p> There is an old adage that it is not good for the market if the Generals are out in front of the Army (the “Generals” being General Motors, General Electric, etc. – i.e., the mainstays of the Dow of days gone by; the “Army” being the main body of stocks). The point is that if the advance is narrow and limited to the largest institutional stocks, then trouble lies ahead.</p><p><blockquote>有一句古老的谚语说，如果将军们在军队前面，对市场没有好处（“将军”是通用汽车、通用电气等。–即过去道琼斯指数的中流砥柱；“军队”是股票的主体）。关键是，如果涨幅狭窄且仅限于最大的机构股，那么麻烦就在前方。</blockquote></p><p> It is a good point, but too vague to implement as a trading system. We would normally see that reflected in breadth (which is now giving a sell signal) and new highs vs. new lows (which is also on a sell signal).</p><p><blockquote>这是一个很好的观点，但太模糊了，无法作为一个交易系统来实施。我们通常会看到这反映在广度（现在给出卖出信号）和新高与新低（也是卖出信号）上。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c46ab28413e089cb3da5f328292ad4e7\" tg-width=\"620\" tg-height=\"465\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">LAWRENCE MCMILLAN</p><p><blockquote>劳伦斯·麦克米兰</blockquote></p><p> One positive thing is that the SPX chart is still in an uptrend, as the moving averages and “modified Bollinger Bands” are still trending higher. However, if the S&amp;P breaks through support at 3,870, that uptrend would be called into question. As one can see from the accompanying chart, there is further support near 3,725. If that is broken, the bears would clearly be in charge. Meanwhile, the recent all-time highs, at 3,985, represent resistance.</p><p><blockquote>一件积极的事情是，SPX图表仍处于上升趋势，因为移动平均线和“修正布林线”仍呈走高趋势。然而，如果标准普尔指数突破3,870点的支撑位，这一上升趋势将受到质疑。从附图可以看出，3725点附近有进一步的支撑。如果这被打破，空头显然会掌权。与此同时，近期历史高点3,985点代表阻力位。</blockquote></p><p> What is different today compared to previous minor pullbacks is that several of our internal indicators have weakened considerably and are on sell signals: breadth, new highs vs. new lows, and equity-only put-call ratios.</p><p><blockquote>与之前的小幅回调相比，今天的不同之处在于，我们的几个内部指标已显着减弱并发出卖出信号：广度、新高与新低以及仅股票的看跌看涨期权比率。</blockquote></p><p> Equity-only put-call ratios remain on sell signals that were first generated in mid-February and that have strengthened by beginning to rise rapidly.&nbsp;They are still relatively low on their charts, meaning that there is a lot of room to move higher before one might say they are “oversold.”</p><p><blockquote>仅股票的看跌-看涨期权比率仍处于2月中旬首次产生的卖出信号，并通过开始快速上涨而加强。它们在图表上仍然相对较低，这意味着在人们可能会说它们“超卖”之前还有很大的走高空间。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bfd689fa18eceb515c752afa1cb024f7\" tg-width=\"620\" tg-height=\"465\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">LAWRENCE MCMILLAN<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9216bd23616405d8464aa44f5baea259\" tg-width=\"620\" tg-height=\"460\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">LAWRENCE MCMILLAN</p><p><blockquote>劳伦斯·麦克米兰劳伦斯·麦克米兰</blockquote></p><p> Breadth has deteriorated badly over the past two weeks – especially this last week. Sell signals were generated by the breadth oscillators on March 18 and March 19, and those oscillators have plunged since then.&nbsp;The “stocks only” breadth oscillator has already descended into oversold territory, but “oversold doesn’t mean buy.”</p><p><blockquote>广度在过去两周严重恶化，尤其是上周。3月18日和3月19日，广度振荡指标产生了卖出信号，此后这些振荡指标暴跌。“仅限股票”的广度振荡指标已经跌至超卖区域，但“超卖并不意味着买入”。</blockquote></p><p> The NYSE breadth oscillator is also moving lower, but at a much slower pace, since the more positive “Dow-type” stocks have a heavier weight in that oscillator.</p><p><blockquote>纽约证券交易所广度振荡指标也在走低，但速度要慢得多，因为更积极的“道琼斯型”股票在该振荡指标中的权重更大。</blockquote></p><p> Meanwhile, cumulative breadth has fallen sharply as well. That is not a signal, but it is worth noting that the “stocks only” cumulative advance-decline line has fallen almost 10,000 issues since the cumulative A-D line reached an all-time high on March 15 (that is, over that time, summing the daily figures, declines have outnumbered advances by 10,000 issues).</p><p><blockquote>与此同时，累计广度也大幅下降。这不是一个信号，但值得注意的是，自3月15日累计A-D线达到历史新高以来，“仅股票”累计上涨-下跌线已经下跌了近10,000期（也就是说，在此期间，将每日数据相加，下跌数量超过上涨数量10,000期）。</blockquote></p><p> A significant development has also occurred in the case of the “new highs vs. new lows” indicator. On March 23, new 52-week lows outnumbered new 52-week highs andnew 52-week lows numbered more than 100 issues — the first time that has happened since last May.&nbsp;That was the case again on March 24.&nbsp;That places this indicator on a sell signal until new highs take control once again.</p><p><blockquote>“新高对新低”指标也出现了重大发展。3月23日，52周新低数量超过52周新高，52周新低数量超过100期——这是自去年5月以来首次发生。3月24日再次出现这种情况。这使得该指标处于卖出信号，直到新高再次占据主导地位。</blockquote></p><p> Countering the negativity of put-call ratios, breadth, and new highs vs. new lows, is the fact that the volatility indicators still remain generally bullish. VIX has not risen substantially (yet), so the “spike peak” buy signal of March 4 remains in place.</p><p><blockquote>与看跌看涨期权比率、广度以及新高与新低的负面影响相反，波动性指标仍然普遍看涨。VIX尚未大幅上涨，因此3月4日的“峰值”买入信号仍然存在。</blockquote></p><p> Moreover, the trend of VIXVIX,-6.56%continues to be lower, as both VIX and its 20-day moving average are below the declining 200-day moving average. In fact, on March 22, VIX closed at its lowest price (18.88) since February 2020.</p><p><blockquote>此外，VIXVIX,-6.56%的趋势继续走低，因为VIX及其20日移动平均线均低于下降的200日移动平均线。事实上，3月22日，VIX收于2020年2月以来的最低价（18.88）。</blockquote></p><p> If VIX should continue to fall below there, it would be a bullish sign for stocks.</p><p><blockquote>如果VIX继续跌破该水平，这将是股市的看涨信号。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c5d40b1aedd4e9457306d25814439c92\" tg-width=\"620\" tg-height=\"465\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">LAWRENCE MCMILLAN</p><p><blockquote>劳伦斯·麦克米兰</blockquote></p><p> As we’ve noted previously, the fact that VIX has remained so high all during the huge rally over the past year has been a worrisome sign for many traders. But the traders that were keeping VIX higher were actually correct, because realized volatility of SPX (i.e., its 20-day historical volatility) has been just below 20 since early March. Thus, realized volatility rose to meet implied volatility, rather than the other way around (which is more often the case).</p><p><blockquote>正如我们之前指出的，VIX在过去一年的大幅上涨期间一直保持在如此高的水平，这对许多交易者来说是一个令人担忧的迹象。但维持VIX走高的交易员实际上是正确的，因为自3月初以来，SPX的已实现波动率（即其20天历史波动率）一直略低于20。因此，已实现波动率上升是为了满足隐含波动率，而不是相反（这种情况更常见）。</blockquote></p><p> Now, if one wants to make the case that it is worrisome to see both forms of volatility this high, then so be it. But there is no longer any significant difference between the S&amp;P’s realized and implied volatility.</p><p><blockquote>现在，如果有人想证明看到这两种形式的波动如此之高令人担忧，那就这样吧。但标普的已实现和隐含波动率之间不再存在任何显著差异。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> The construct of volatility derivatives has remained bullish throughout.&nbsp;VIX futures are all trading at premiums to VIX, and the term structure slopes upward through the coming summer. Similarly, the term structure of the CBOE Volatility Indices slopes upward through the next six months as well.</p><p><blockquote>波动性衍生品的结构始终保持看涨。VIX期货的交易价格都高于VIX，期限结构在即将到来的夏季向上倾斜。同样，芝加哥期权交易所波动率指数的期限结构在未来六个月也向上倾斜。</blockquote></p><p> The first sign of a negative reversal here would be if the April VIX futures traded above the price of May VIX futures.</p><p><blockquote>负面逆转的第一个迹象是4月份VIX期货的交易价格高于5月份VIX期货的价格。</blockquote></p><p> Near-term deterioration in some internal indicators is certainly a cause for worry, and small countertrend bearish positions can be taken because of that. However, the S&amp;P’s trend is still higher, and the trend of VIX is still lower – both bullish factors. So we still maintaining a “core” bullish position until those two trends are broken.</p><p><blockquote>一些内部指标的近期恶化无疑令人担忧，因此可以建立小型逆势看跌头寸。然而，标普的趋势仍然更高，VIX的趋势仍然更低——两者都是看涨因素。因此，我们仍然维持“核心”看涨立场，直到这两个趋势被打破。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1603348471595","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Stay bullish on the stock market in the face of some fresh sell signals<blockquote>面对一些新的卖出信号，保持看涨股市</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nStay bullish on the stock market in the face of some fresh sell signals<blockquote>面对一些新的卖出信号，保持看涨股市</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">marketwatch</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-03-26 11:54</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>The stock market continues to be led by the Dow Jones Industrial Average,with NASDAQ&nbsp;lagging noticeably behind, and the S&amp;P 500 indexcaught somewhere in the middle. This is not a good scenario for stocks.</p><p><blockquote>股市继续由道琼斯工业平均指数领涨，纳斯达克明显落后，标普500指数介于两者之间。对于股票来说，这不是一个好的情况。</blockquote></p><p> There is an old adage that it is not good for the market if the Generals are out in front of the Army (the “Generals” being General Motors, General Electric, etc. – i.e., the mainstays of the Dow of days gone by; the “Army” being the main body of stocks). The point is that if the advance is narrow and limited to the largest institutional stocks, then trouble lies ahead.</p><p><blockquote>有一句古老的谚语说，如果将军们在军队前面，对市场没有好处（“将军”是通用汽车、通用电气等。–即过去道琼斯指数的中流砥柱；“军队”是股票的主体）。关键是，如果涨幅狭窄且仅限于最大的机构股，那么麻烦就在前方。</blockquote></p><p> It is a good point, but too vague to implement as a trading system. We would normally see that reflected in breadth (which is now giving a sell signal) and new highs vs. new lows (which is also on a sell signal).</p><p><blockquote>这是一个很好的观点，但太模糊了，无法作为一个交易系统来实施。我们通常会看到这反映在广度（现在给出卖出信号）和新高与新低（也是卖出信号）上。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c46ab28413e089cb3da5f328292ad4e7\" tg-width=\"620\" tg-height=\"465\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">LAWRENCE MCMILLAN</p><p><blockquote>劳伦斯·麦克米兰</blockquote></p><p> One positive thing is that the SPX chart is still in an uptrend, as the moving averages and “modified Bollinger Bands” are still trending higher. However, if the S&amp;P breaks through support at 3,870, that uptrend would be called into question. As one can see from the accompanying chart, there is further support near 3,725. If that is broken, the bears would clearly be in charge. Meanwhile, the recent all-time highs, at 3,985, represent resistance.</p><p><blockquote>一件积极的事情是，SPX图表仍处于上升趋势，因为移动平均线和“修正布林线”仍呈走高趋势。然而，如果标准普尔指数突破3,870点的支撑位，这一上升趋势将受到质疑。从附图可以看出，3725点附近有进一步的支撑。如果这被打破，空头显然会掌权。与此同时，近期历史高点3,985点代表阻力位。</blockquote></p><p> What is different today compared to previous minor pullbacks is that several of our internal indicators have weakened considerably and are on sell signals: breadth, new highs vs. new lows, and equity-only put-call ratios.</p><p><blockquote>与之前的小幅回调相比，今天的不同之处在于，我们的几个内部指标已显着减弱并发出卖出信号：广度、新高与新低以及仅股票的看跌看涨期权比率。</blockquote></p><p> Equity-only put-call ratios remain on sell signals that were first generated in mid-February and that have strengthened by beginning to rise rapidly.&nbsp;They are still relatively low on their charts, meaning that there is a lot of room to move higher before one might say they are “oversold.”</p><p><blockquote>仅股票的看跌-看涨期权比率仍处于2月中旬首次产生的卖出信号，并通过开始快速上涨而加强。它们在图表上仍然相对较低，这意味着在人们可能会说它们“超卖”之前还有很大的走高空间。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bfd689fa18eceb515c752afa1cb024f7\" tg-width=\"620\" tg-height=\"465\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">LAWRENCE MCMILLAN<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9216bd23616405d8464aa44f5baea259\" tg-width=\"620\" tg-height=\"460\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">LAWRENCE MCMILLAN</p><p><blockquote>劳伦斯·麦克米兰劳伦斯·麦克米兰</blockquote></p><p> Breadth has deteriorated badly over the past two weeks – especially this last week. Sell signals were generated by the breadth oscillators on March 18 and March 19, and those oscillators have plunged since then.&nbsp;The “stocks only” breadth oscillator has already descended into oversold territory, but “oversold doesn’t mean buy.”</p><p><blockquote>广度在过去两周严重恶化，尤其是上周。3月18日和3月19日，广度振荡指标产生了卖出信号，此后这些振荡指标暴跌。“仅限股票”的广度振荡指标已经跌至超卖区域，但“超卖并不意味着买入”。</blockquote></p><p> The NYSE breadth oscillator is also moving lower, but at a much slower pace, since the more positive “Dow-type” stocks have a heavier weight in that oscillator.</p><p><blockquote>纽约证券交易所广度振荡指标也在走低，但速度要慢得多，因为更积极的“道琼斯型”股票在该振荡指标中的权重更大。</blockquote></p><p> Meanwhile, cumulative breadth has fallen sharply as well. That is not a signal, but it is worth noting that the “stocks only” cumulative advance-decline line has fallen almost 10,000 issues since the cumulative A-D line reached an all-time high on March 15 (that is, over that time, summing the daily figures, declines have outnumbered advances by 10,000 issues).</p><p><blockquote>与此同时，累计广度也大幅下降。这不是一个信号，但值得注意的是，自3月15日累计A-D线达到历史新高以来，“仅股票”累计上涨-下跌线已经下跌了近10,000期（也就是说，在此期间，将每日数据相加，下跌数量超过上涨数量10,000期）。</blockquote></p><p> A significant development has also occurred in the case of the “new highs vs. new lows” indicator. On March 23, new 52-week lows outnumbered new 52-week highs andnew 52-week lows numbered more than 100 issues — the first time that has happened since last May.&nbsp;That was the case again on March 24.&nbsp;That places this indicator on a sell signal until new highs take control once again.</p><p><blockquote>“新高对新低”指标也出现了重大发展。3月23日，52周新低数量超过52周新高，52周新低数量超过100期——这是自去年5月以来首次发生。3月24日再次出现这种情况。这使得该指标处于卖出信号，直到新高再次占据主导地位。</blockquote></p><p> Countering the negativity of put-call ratios, breadth, and new highs vs. new lows, is the fact that the volatility indicators still remain generally bullish. VIX has not risen substantially (yet), so the “spike peak” buy signal of March 4 remains in place.</p><p><blockquote>与看跌看涨期权比率、广度以及新高与新低的负面影响相反，波动性指标仍然普遍看涨。VIX尚未大幅上涨，因此3月4日的“峰值”买入信号仍然存在。</blockquote></p><p> Moreover, the trend of VIXVIX,-6.56%continues to be lower, as both VIX and its 20-day moving average are below the declining 200-day moving average. In fact, on March 22, VIX closed at its lowest price (18.88) since February 2020.</p><p><blockquote>此外，VIXVIX,-6.56%的趋势继续走低，因为VIX及其20日移动平均线均低于下降的200日移动平均线。事实上，3月22日，VIX收于2020年2月以来的最低价（18.88）。</blockquote></p><p> If VIX should continue to fall below there, it would be a bullish sign for stocks.</p><p><blockquote>如果VIX继续跌破该水平，这将是股市的看涨信号。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c5d40b1aedd4e9457306d25814439c92\" tg-width=\"620\" tg-height=\"465\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">LAWRENCE MCMILLAN</p><p><blockquote>劳伦斯·麦克米兰</blockquote></p><p> As we’ve noted previously, the fact that VIX has remained so high all during the huge rally over the past year has been a worrisome sign for many traders. But the traders that were keeping VIX higher were actually correct, because realized volatility of SPX (i.e., its 20-day historical volatility) has been just below 20 since early March. Thus, realized volatility rose to meet implied volatility, rather than the other way around (which is more often the case).</p><p><blockquote>正如我们之前指出的，VIX在过去一年的大幅上涨期间一直保持在如此高的水平，这对许多交易者来说是一个令人担忧的迹象。但维持VIX走高的交易员实际上是正确的，因为自3月初以来，SPX的已实现波动率（即其20天历史波动率）一直略低于20。因此，已实现波动率上升是为了满足隐含波动率，而不是相反（这种情况更常见）。</blockquote></p><p> Now, if one wants to make the case that it is worrisome to see both forms of volatility this high, then so be it. But there is no longer any significant difference between the S&amp;P’s realized and implied volatility.</p><p><blockquote>现在，如果有人想证明看到这两种形式的波动如此之高令人担忧，那就这样吧。但标普的已实现和隐含波动率之间不再存在任何显著差异。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> The construct of volatility derivatives has remained bullish throughout.&nbsp;VIX futures are all trading at premiums to VIX, and the term structure slopes upward through the coming summer. Similarly, the term structure of the CBOE Volatility Indices slopes upward through the next six months as well.</p><p><blockquote>波动性衍生品的结构始终保持看涨。VIX期货的交易价格都高于VIX，期限结构在即将到来的夏季向上倾斜。同样，芝加哥期权交易所波动率指数的期限结构在未来六个月也向上倾斜。</blockquote></p><p> The first sign of a negative reversal here would be if the April VIX futures traded above the price of May VIX futures.</p><p><blockquote>负面逆转的第一个迹象是4月份VIX期货的交易价格高于5月份VIX期货的价格。</blockquote></p><p> Near-term deterioration in some internal indicators is certainly a cause for worry, and small countertrend bearish positions can be taken because of that. However, the S&amp;P’s trend is still higher, and the trend of VIX is still lower – both bullish factors. So we still maintaining a “core” bullish position until those two trends are broken.</p><p><blockquote>一些内部指标的近期恶化无疑令人担忧，因此可以建立小型逆势看跌头寸。然而，标普的趋势仍然更高，VIX的趋势仍然更低——两者都是看涨因素。因此，我们仍然维持“核心”看涨立场，直到这两个趋势被打破。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/stay-bullish-on-the-stock-market-in-the-face-of-some-fresh-sell-signals-01616682019?mod=home-page\">marketwatch</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5d8fb95e65f042f352c6313989391357","relate_stocks":{".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/stay-bullish-on-the-stock-market-in-the-face-of-some-fresh-sell-signals-01616682019?mod=home-page","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1100799979","content_text":"The stock market continues to be led by the Dow Jones Industrial Average,with NASDAQ lagging noticeably behind, and the S&P 500 indexcaught somewhere in the middle. This is not a good scenario for stocks.\nThere is an old adage that it is not good for the market if the Generals are out in front of the Army (the “Generals” being General Motors, General Electric, etc. – i.e., the mainstays of the Dow of days gone by; the “Army” being the main body of stocks). The point is that if the advance is narrow and limited to the largest institutional stocks, then trouble lies ahead.\nIt is a good point, but too vague to implement as a trading system. We would normally see that reflected in breadth (which is now giving a sell signal) and new highs vs. new lows (which is also on a sell signal).\nLAWRENCE MCMILLAN\nOne positive thing is that the SPX chart is still in an uptrend, as the moving averages and “modified Bollinger Bands” are still trending higher. However, if the S&P breaks through support at 3,870, that uptrend would be called into question. As one can see from the accompanying chart, there is further support near 3,725. If that is broken, the bears would clearly be in charge. Meanwhile, the recent all-time highs, at 3,985, represent resistance.\nWhat is different today compared to previous minor pullbacks is that several of our internal indicators have weakened considerably and are on sell signals: breadth, new highs vs. new lows, and equity-only put-call ratios.\nEquity-only put-call ratios remain on sell signals that were first generated in mid-February and that have strengthened by beginning to rise rapidly. They are still relatively low on their charts, meaning that there is a lot of room to move higher before one might say they are “oversold.”\nLAWRENCE MCMILLANLAWRENCE MCMILLAN\nBreadth has deteriorated badly over the past two weeks – especially this last week. Sell signals were generated by the breadth oscillators on March 18 and March 19, and those oscillators have plunged since then. The “stocks only” breadth oscillator has already descended into oversold territory, but “oversold doesn’t mean buy.”\nThe NYSE breadth oscillator is also moving lower, but at a much slower pace, since the more positive “Dow-type” stocks have a heavier weight in that oscillator.\nMeanwhile, cumulative breadth has fallen sharply as well. That is not a signal, but it is worth noting that the “stocks only” cumulative advance-decline line has fallen almost 10,000 issues since the cumulative A-D line reached an all-time high on March 15 (that is, over that time, summing the daily figures, declines have outnumbered advances by 10,000 issues).\nA significant development has also occurred in the case of the “new highs vs. new lows” indicator. On March 23, new 52-week lows outnumbered new 52-week highs andnew 52-week lows numbered more than 100 issues — the first time that has happened since last May. That was the case again on March 24. That places this indicator on a sell signal until new highs take control once again.\nCountering the negativity of put-call ratios, breadth, and new highs vs. new lows, is the fact that the volatility indicators still remain generally bullish. VIX has not risen substantially (yet), so the “spike peak” buy signal of March 4 remains in place.\nMoreover, the trend of VIXVIX,-6.56%continues to be lower, as both VIX and its 20-day moving average are below the declining 200-day moving average. In fact, on March 22, VIX closed at its lowest price (18.88) since February 2020.\nIf VIX should continue to fall below there, it would be a bullish sign for stocks.\nLAWRENCE MCMILLAN\nAs we’ve noted previously, the fact that VIX has remained so high all during the huge rally over the past year has been a worrisome sign for many traders. But the traders that were keeping VIX higher were actually correct, because realized volatility of SPX (i.e., its 20-day historical volatility) has been just below 20 since early March. Thus, realized volatility rose to meet implied volatility, rather than the other way around (which is more often the case).\nNow, if one wants to make the case that it is worrisome to see both forms of volatility this high, then so be it. But there is no longer any significant difference between the S&P’s realized and implied volatility.\nThe construct of volatility derivatives has remained bullish throughout. VIX futures are all trading at premiums to VIX, and the term structure slopes upward through the coming summer. Similarly, the term structure of the CBOE Volatility Indices slopes upward through the next six months as well.\nThe first sign of a negative reversal here would be if the April VIX futures traded above the price of May VIX futures.\nNear-term deterioration in some internal indicators is certainly a cause for worry, and small countertrend bearish positions can be taken because of that. However, the S&P’s trend is still higher, and the trend of VIX is still lower – both bullish factors. So we still maintaining a “core” bullish position until those two trends are broken.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".SPX":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2274,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":358074741,"gmtCreate":1616645938283,"gmtModify":1634524749264,"author":{"id":"3568069882275792","authorId":"3568069882275792","name":"NoviceK","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/717a700218452fb1ccf7954943014836","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3568069882275792","authorIdStr":"3568069882275792"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Like and comment if you want the same","listText":"Like and comment if you want the same","text":"Like and comment if you want the same","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/358074741","repostId":"1123323320","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1123323320","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1616644810,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1123323320?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-03-25 12:00","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Jobless claims preview: Another 730,000 Americans likely filed new unemployment claims<blockquote>初请失业金人数预览：另有73万美国人可能申请新的初请失业金</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1123323320","media":"yahoo","summary":"U.S. states are expected to have seen a drop in initial unemployment claims filings last week, albei","content":"<p>U.S. states are expected to have seen a drop in initial unemployment claims filings last week, albeit to a level that would still reflect a weak labor market compared to pre-pandemic conditions.</p><p><blockquote>预计美国各州上周首次申请失业救济人数将有所下降，尽管与大流行前的情况相比，这一水平仍反映出劳动力市场疲软。</blockquote></p><p> The Department of Labor is set to release its weekly report on new jobless claims on Thursday at 8:30 a.m. ET. Here are the main metrics expected from the report, compared to consensus data compiled by Bloomberg:</p><p><blockquote>美国劳工部将于美国东部时间周四上午8:30发布每周新申请失业救济人数报告。与彭博社编制的共识数据相比，以下是该报告预期的主要指标：</blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li><b>Initial jobless claims, week ended March 20:</b>730,000 expected vs. 770,000 during the prior week</p><p><blockquote><ul><li><b>截至3月20日当周首次申请失业救济人数：</b>预期为730,000人，前一周为770,000人</li></ul></blockquote></p><p></li>  <li><b>Continuing claims, week ended March 13:</b>4 million expected vs. 4.124 million during the prior week</p><p><blockquote><li><b>截至3月13日当周的持续索赔：</b>预期为400万，而前一周为412.4万</li></blockquote></p><p></li> </ul> Initial unemployment claims likely held below 800,000 for a fifth straight week and declined after last week's unexpected jump in new claims. The year-over-year improvements will be even more pronounced: During the same week in 2020, new claims rocketed to more than 3 million as the pandemic's initial impacts reverberated across the labor market.</p><p><blockquote>首次申请失业救济人数可能连续第五周保持在80万以下，并在上周新申请失业救济人数意外激增后有所下降。同比改善将更加明显：在2020年的同一周，随着疫情的初步影响在整个劳动力市场产生反响，新申请失业救济人数飙升至300多万。</blockquote></p><p> But while claims have come down considerably from those highs, they remain sharply elevated from 2019 levels, when new claims averaged just over 200,000 per week. Plus, improvements have stagnated in recent months, and claims have yet to break below levels seen in November.</p><p><blockquote>不过，尽管申请失业救济人数较这些高点大幅下降，但仍较2019年的水平大幅上升，当时平均每周新增申请失业救济人数略高于20万人。此外，近几个月来改善停滞不前，申请失业救济人数尚未低于11月份的水平。</blockquote></p><p> And based on the total of claimants counted across all unemployment programs, a staggering number of Americans remain out of work. As of the end of February, more than 18 million individuals were still claiming unemployment benefits of some form, including via the federal Pandemic Unemployment Assistance and Pandemic Emergency Unemployment Compensation program, which offers extended benefits to those who have exhausted their regular state insurance.</p><p><blockquote>根据所有失业计划的申请人数，仍有数量惊人的美国人失业。截至2月底，仍有超过1800万人在申请某种形式的失业救济金，包括通过联邦疫情失业援助和疫情紧急失业补偿计划，该计划为那些用尽常规州保险的人提供延长福利。</blockquote></p><p> The slow march forward for labor market progress has not been lost on policymakers. In congressional testimony on earlier this week,Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen told the U.S. House Committee on Financial Servicesthat \"we should be clear-eyed about the hole we're digging out of\" even as the data shows some signs of recovery, given that the country is still down by nearly 10 million jobs compared to its pre-pandemic peak.</p><p><blockquote>政策制定者并没有忽视劳动力市场进展缓慢的事实。在本周早些时候的国会证词中，财政部长珍妮特·耶伦(Janet Yellen)告诉美国众议院金融服务委员会，“我们应该清醒地认识到我们正在挖的洞”，尽管数据显示出一些复苏的迹象，但鉴于与大流行前的峰值相比，该国的就业岗位仍减少了近1000万个。</blockquote></p><p> Still, many economists are optimistic the rebound will pick up momentum in the coming weeks and months, especially with the vaccination program accelerating across the country.</p><p><blockquote>尽管如此，许多经济学家乐观地认为，反弹将在未来几周和几个月内加快势头，特别是随着疫苗接种计划在全国范围内加速。</blockquote></p><p> \"With the increased pace of COVID-19 vaccinations, federal stimulus spending and winter’s grip easing across much of the country, it is quite reasonable to harbor upbeat expectations for the U.S. economy,\" Mark Hamrick, senior economist analyst at Bankrate, wrote in a note. \"This should be reflected in more of the economic data in the months ahead.\"</p><p><blockquote>Bankrate高级经济学家分析师马克·哈姆里克(Mark Hamrick)在一份报告中写道：“随着COVID-19疫苗接种步伐的加快、联邦刺激支出以及美国大部分地区冬季控制的缓解，对美国经济抱有乐观预期是相当合理的。”笔记。“这应该会在未来几个月的更多经济数据中得到体现。”</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1584348713084","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Jobless claims preview: Another 730,000 Americans likely filed new unemployment claims<blockquote>初请失业金人数预览：另有73万美国人可能申请新的初请失业金</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nJobless claims preview: Another 730,000 Americans likely filed new unemployment claims<blockquote>初请失业金人数预览：另有73万美国人可能申请新的初请失业金</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">yahoo</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-03-25 12:00</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>U.S. states are expected to have seen a drop in initial unemployment claims filings last week, albeit to a level that would still reflect a weak labor market compared to pre-pandemic conditions.</p><p><blockquote>预计美国各州上周首次申请失业救济人数将有所下降，尽管与大流行前的情况相比，这一水平仍反映出劳动力市场疲软。</blockquote></p><p> The Department of Labor is set to release its weekly report on new jobless claims on Thursday at 8:30 a.m. ET. Here are the main metrics expected from the report, compared to consensus data compiled by Bloomberg:</p><p><blockquote>美国劳工部将于美国东部时间周四上午8:30发布每周新申请失业救济人数报告。与彭博社编制的共识数据相比，以下是该报告预期的主要指标：</blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li><b>Initial jobless claims, week ended March 20:</b>730,000 expected vs. 770,000 during the prior week</p><p><blockquote><ul><li><b>截至3月20日当周首次申请失业救济人数：</b>预期为730,000人，前一周为770,000人</li></ul></blockquote></p><p></li>  <li><b>Continuing claims, week ended March 13:</b>4 million expected vs. 4.124 million during the prior week</p><p><blockquote><li><b>截至3月13日当周的持续索赔：</b>预期为400万，而前一周为412.4万</li></blockquote></p><p></li> </ul> Initial unemployment claims likely held below 800,000 for a fifth straight week and declined after last week's unexpected jump in new claims. The year-over-year improvements will be even more pronounced: During the same week in 2020, new claims rocketed to more than 3 million as the pandemic's initial impacts reverberated across the labor market.</p><p><blockquote>首次申请失业救济人数可能连续第五周保持在80万以下，并在上周新申请失业救济人数意外激增后有所下降。同比改善将更加明显：在2020年的同一周，随着疫情的初步影响在整个劳动力市场产生反响，新申请失业救济人数飙升至300多万。</blockquote></p><p> But while claims have come down considerably from those highs, they remain sharply elevated from 2019 levels, when new claims averaged just over 200,000 per week. Plus, improvements have stagnated in recent months, and claims have yet to break below levels seen in November.</p><p><blockquote>不过，尽管申请失业救济人数较这些高点大幅下降，但仍较2019年的水平大幅上升，当时平均每周新增申请失业救济人数略高于20万人。此外，近几个月来改善停滞不前，申请失业救济人数尚未低于11月份的水平。</blockquote></p><p> And based on the total of claimants counted across all unemployment programs, a staggering number of Americans remain out of work. As of the end of February, more than 18 million individuals were still claiming unemployment benefits of some form, including via the federal Pandemic Unemployment Assistance and Pandemic Emergency Unemployment Compensation program, which offers extended benefits to those who have exhausted their regular state insurance.</p><p><blockquote>根据所有失业计划的申请人数，仍有数量惊人的美国人失业。截至2月底，仍有超过1800万人在申请某种形式的失业救济金，包括通过联邦疫情失业援助和疫情紧急失业补偿计划，该计划为那些用尽常规州保险的人提供延长福利。</blockquote></p><p> The slow march forward for labor market progress has not been lost on policymakers. In congressional testimony on earlier this week,Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen told the U.S. House Committee on Financial Servicesthat \"we should be clear-eyed about the hole we're digging out of\" even as the data shows some signs of recovery, given that the country is still down by nearly 10 million jobs compared to its pre-pandemic peak.</p><p><blockquote>政策制定者并没有忽视劳动力市场进展缓慢的事实。在本周早些时候的国会证词中，财政部长珍妮特·耶伦(Janet Yellen)告诉美国众议院金融服务委员会，“我们应该清醒地认识到我们正在挖的洞”，尽管数据显示出一些复苏的迹象，但鉴于与大流行前的峰值相比，该国的就业岗位仍减少了近1000万个。</blockquote></p><p> Still, many economists are optimistic the rebound will pick up momentum in the coming weeks and months, especially with the vaccination program accelerating across the country.</p><p><blockquote>尽管如此，许多经济学家乐观地认为，反弹将在未来几周和几个月内加快势头，特别是随着疫苗接种计划在全国范围内加速。</blockquote></p><p> \"With the increased pace of COVID-19 vaccinations, federal stimulus spending and winter’s grip easing across much of the country, it is quite reasonable to harbor upbeat expectations for the U.S. economy,\" Mark Hamrick, senior economist analyst at Bankrate, wrote in a note. \"This should be reflected in more of the economic data in the months ahead.\"</p><p><blockquote>Bankrate高级经济学家分析师马克·哈姆里克(Mark Hamrick)在一份报告中写道：“随着COVID-19疫苗接种步伐的加快、联邦刺激支出以及美国大部分地区冬季控制的缓解，对美国经济抱有乐观预期是相当合理的。”笔记。“这应该会在未来几个月的更多经济数据中得到体现。”</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://finance.yahoo.com/news/weekly-jobless-claims-week-ended-march-20-2021-pandemic-165400695-182038606.html\">yahoo</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"https://finance.yahoo.com/news/weekly-jobless-claims-week-ended-march-20-2021-pandemic-165400695-182038606.html","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1123323320","content_text":"U.S. states are expected to have seen a drop in initial unemployment claims filings last week, albeit to a level that would still reflect a weak labor market compared to pre-pandemic conditions.\nThe Department of Labor is set to release its weekly report on new jobless claims on Thursday at 8:30 a.m. ET. Here are the main metrics expected from the report, compared to consensus data compiled by Bloomberg:\n\nInitial jobless claims, week ended March 20:730,000 expected vs. 770,000 during the prior week\nContinuing claims, week ended March 13:4 million expected vs. 4.124 million during the prior week\n\nInitial unemployment claims likely held below 800,000 for a fifth straight week and declined after last week's unexpected jump in new claims. The year-over-year improvements will be even more pronounced: During the same week in 2020, new claims rocketed to more than 3 million as the pandemic's initial impacts reverberated across the labor market.\nBut while claims have come down considerably from those highs, they remain sharply elevated from 2019 levels, when new claims averaged just over 200,000 per week. Plus, improvements have stagnated in recent months, and claims have yet to break below levels seen in November.\nAnd based on the total of claimants counted across all unemployment programs, a staggering number of Americans remain out of work. As of the end of February, more than 18 million individuals were still claiming unemployment benefits of some form, including via the federal Pandemic Unemployment Assistance and Pandemic Emergency Unemployment Compensation program, which offers extended benefits to those who have exhausted their regular state insurance.\nThe slow march forward for labor market progress has not been lost on policymakers. In congressional testimony on earlier this week,Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen told the U.S. House Committee on Financial Servicesthat \"we should be clear-eyed about the hole we're digging out of\" even as the data shows some signs of recovery, given that the country is still down by nearly 10 million jobs compared to its pre-pandemic peak.\nStill, many economists are optimistic the rebound will pick up momentum in the coming weeks and months, especially with the vaccination program accelerating across the country.\n\"With the increased pace of COVID-19 vaccinations, federal stimulus spending and winter’s grip easing across much of the country, it is quite reasonable to harbor upbeat expectations for the U.S. economy,\" Mark Hamrick, senior economist analyst at Bankrate, wrote in a note. \"This should be reflected in more of the economic data in the months ahead.\"","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1505,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":353154551,"gmtCreate":1616473343073,"gmtModify":1634525638544,"author":{"id":"3568069882275792","authorId":"3568069882275792","name":"NoviceK","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/717a700218452fb1ccf7954943014836","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3568069882275792","authorIdStr":"3568069882275792"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Comment and like&nbsp;if you need the same","listText":"Comment and like&nbsp;if you need the same","text":"Comment and like if you need the 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it","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/350543625","repostId":"1136440314","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":534,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":322314731,"gmtCreate":1615773652823,"gmtModify":1703492736442,"author":{"id":"3568069882275792","authorId":"3568069882275792","name":"NoviceK","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/717a700218452fb1ccf7954943014836","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3568069882275792","authorIdStr":"3568069882275792"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Nice move [开心]&nbsp;","listText":"Nice move [开心]&nbsp;","text":"Nice move [开心]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/322314731","repostId":"2119999060","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1253,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":329451450,"gmtCreate":1615273313470,"gmtModify":1703486563318,"author":{"id":"3568069882275792","authorId":"3568069882275792","name":"NoviceK","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/717a700218452fb1ccf7954943014836","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3568069882275792","authorIdStr":"3568069882275792"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"When will this correction come to an end?","listText":"When will this correction come to an end?","text":"When will this correction come to an end?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/329451450","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":521,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":320797265,"gmtCreate":1615174907557,"gmtModify":1703485206747,"author":{"id":"3568069882275792","authorId":"3568069882275792","name":"NoviceK","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/717a700218452fb1ccf7954943014836","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3568069882275792","authorIdStr":"3568069882275792"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Rebound is real or just another trap?","listText":"Rebound is real or just another trap?","text":"Rebound is real or just another trap?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/320797265","repostId":"1136643242","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":294,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":320329369,"gmtCreate":1615020218051,"gmtModify":1703484279367,"author":{"id":"3568069882275792","authorId":"3568069882275792","name":"NoviceK","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/717a700218452fb1ccf7954943014836","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3568069882275792","authorIdStr":"3568069882275792"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Pltr stonk","listText":"Pltr stonk","text":"Pltr stonk","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/320329369","repostId":"1169596583","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1169596583","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据，旨在帮助投资者理解世界，做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1614958557,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1169596583?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-03-05 23:35","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Palantir plunged more than 13%<blockquote>Palantir暴跌超13%</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1169596583","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"(March 5)&nbsp;Palantir plunged more than 13%.","content":"<p>(March 5)&nbsp;Palantir plunged more than 13%.</p><p><blockquote>（3月5日）Palantir暴跌超13%。</blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/13f756ec57cca85c31b6be070941d7c1\" tg-width=\"1059\" tg-height=\"499\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Palantir plunged more than 13%<blockquote>Palantir暴跌超13%</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nPalantir plunged more than 13%<blockquote>Palantir暴跌超13%</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-03-05 23:35</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>(March 5)&nbsp;Palantir plunged more than 13%.</p><p><blockquote>（3月5日）Palantir暴跌超13%。</blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/13f756ec57cca85c31b6be070941d7c1\" tg-width=\"1059\" tg-height=\"499\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"PLTR":"Palantir Technologies Inc."},"is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1169596583","content_text":"(March 5) Palantir plunged more than 13%.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"PLTR":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":323,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":367145724,"gmtCreate":1614927638568,"gmtModify":1703483059669,"author":{"id":"3568069882275792","authorId":"3568069882275792","name":"NoviceK","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/717a700218452fb1ccf7954943014836","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3568069882275792","authorIdStr":"3568069882275792"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BFLY\">$Butterfly Network Inc(BFLY)$</a>Nice! Lost all my lgvw gain!","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BFLY\">$Butterfly Network Inc(BFLY)$</a>Nice! Lost all my lgvw gain!","text":"$Butterfly Network Inc(BFLY)$Nice! Lost all my lgvw gain!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/367145724","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":472,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":364600287,"gmtCreate":1614841813249,"gmtModify":1703481817418,"author":{"id":"3568069882275792","authorId":"3568069882275792","name":"NoviceK","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/717a700218452fb1ccf7954943014836","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3568069882275792","authorIdStr":"3568069882275792"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Wow","listText":"Wow","text":"Wow","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/364600287","repostId":"1179093257","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":425,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":365642032,"gmtCreate":1614738951926,"gmtModify":1703480503157,"author":{"id":"3568069882275792","authorId":"3568069882275792","name":"NoviceK","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/717a700218452fb1ccf7954943014836","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3568069882275792","authorIdStr":"3568069882275792"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Quest time","listText":"Quest time","text":"Quest time","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/365642032","repostId":"365646191","repostType":1,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":491,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":314076268,"gmtCreate":1612282363854,"gmtModify":1703759971109,"author":{"id":"3568069882275792","authorId":"3568069882275792","name":"NoviceK","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/717a700218452fb1ccf7954943014836","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3568069882275792","authorIdStr":"3568069882275792"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"合拼以后， LGVW 的股份会怎么样？有谁在持有LGVW股的？","listText":"合拼以后， LGVW 的股份会怎么样？有谁在持有LGVW股的？","text":"合拼以后， LGVW 的股份会怎么样？有谁在持有LGVW股的？","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/314076268","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1868,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3527667803686145","authorId":"3527667803686145","name":"社区成长助手","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2b7c7106b5c0c8b0037faa67439d898f","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3527667803686145","authorIdStr":"3527667803686145"},"content":"终于等到了您的初发帖[比心][比心]发帖时关联相关股票或者相关话题，可以获得更多曝光哦～如果您想创作优质文章，请查看老虎社区创作指引","text":"终于等到了您的初发帖[比心][比心]发帖时关联相关股票或者相关话题，可以获得更多曝光哦～如果您想创作优质文章，请查看老虎社区创作指引","html":"终于等到了您的初发帖[比心][比心]发帖时关联相关股票或者相关话题，可以获得更多曝光哦～如果您想创作优质文章，请查看老虎社区创作指引"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":353154551,"gmtCreate":1616473343073,"gmtModify":1634525638544,"author":{"id":"3568069882275792","authorId":"3568069882275792","name":"NoviceK","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/717a700218452fb1ccf7954943014836","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3568069882275792","authorIdStr":"3568069882275792"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Comment and like&nbsp;if you need the same","listText":"Comment and like&nbsp;if you need the same","text":"Comment and like if you need the same","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":5,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/353154551","repostId":"2121094501","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2616,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":355214795,"gmtCreate":1617075378417,"gmtModify":1634522793074,"author":{"id":"3568069882275792","authorId":"3568069882275792","name":"NoviceK","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/717a700218452fb1ccf7954943014836","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3568069882275792","authorIdStr":"3568069882275792"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Like and comment if you need the same","listText":"Like and comment if you need the same","text":"Like and comment if you need the same","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/355214795","repostId":"2123126131","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2538,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":355217343,"gmtCreate":1617075386482,"gmtModify":1634522792953,"author":{"id":"3568069882275792","authorId":"3568069882275792","name":"NoviceK","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/717a700218452fb1ccf7954943014836","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3568069882275792","authorIdStr":"3568069882275792"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Tell me your opinion about this news...","listText":"Tell me your opinion about this news...","text":"Tell me your opinion about this news...","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/355217343","repostId":"2123126131","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1144,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":358721564,"gmtCreate":1616732710558,"gmtModify":1634524300643,"author":{"id":"3568069882275792","authorId":"3568069882275792","name":"NoviceK","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/717a700218452fb1ccf7954943014836","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3568069882275792","authorIdStr":"3568069882275792"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Comment and like if you want the same","listText":"Comment and like if you want the same","text":"Comment and like if you want the same","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/358721564","repostId":"1100799979","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1100799979","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1616730844,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1100799979?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-03-26 11:54","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Stay bullish on the stock market in the face of some fresh sell signals<blockquote>面对一些新的卖出信号，保持看涨股市</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1100799979","media":"marketwatch","summary":"The stock market continues to be led by the Dow Jones Industrial Average,with NASDAQ lagging noticea","content":"<p>The stock market continues to be led by the Dow Jones Industrial Average,with NASDAQ&nbsp;lagging noticeably behind, and the S&amp;P 500 indexcaught somewhere in the middle. This is not a good scenario for stocks.</p><p><blockquote>股市继续由道琼斯工业平均指数领涨，纳斯达克明显落后，标普500指数介于两者之间。对于股票来说，这不是一个好的情况。</blockquote></p><p> There is an old adage that it is not good for the market if the Generals are out in front of the Army (the “Generals” being General Motors, General Electric, etc. – i.e., the mainstays of the Dow of days gone by; the “Army” being the main body of stocks). The point is that if the advance is narrow and limited to the largest institutional stocks, then trouble lies ahead.</p><p><blockquote>有一句古老的谚语说，如果将军们在军队前面，对市场没有好处（“将军”是通用汽车、通用电气等。–即过去道琼斯指数的中流砥柱；“军队”是股票的主体）。关键是，如果涨幅狭窄且仅限于最大的机构股，那么麻烦就在前方。</blockquote></p><p> It is a good point, but too vague to implement as a trading system. We would normally see that reflected in breadth (which is now giving a sell signal) and new highs vs. new lows (which is also on a sell signal).</p><p><blockquote>这是一个很好的观点，但太模糊了，无法作为一个交易系统来实施。我们通常会看到这反映在广度（现在给出卖出信号）和新高与新低（也是卖出信号）上。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c46ab28413e089cb3da5f328292ad4e7\" tg-width=\"620\" tg-height=\"465\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">LAWRENCE MCMILLAN</p><p><blockquote>劳伦斯·麦克米兰</blockquote></p><p> One positive thing is that the SPX chart is still in an uptrend, as the moving averages and “modified Bollinger Bands” are still trending higher. However, if the S&amp;P breaks through support at 3,870, that uptrend would be called into question. As one can see from the accompanying chart, there is further support near 3,725. If that is broken, the bears would clearly be in charge. Meanwhile, the recent all-time highs, at 3,985, represent resistance.</p><p><blockquote>一件积极的事情是，SPX图表仍处于上升趋势，因为移动平均线和“修正布林线”仍呈走高趋势。然而，如果标准普尔指数突破3,870点的支撑位，这一上升趋势将受到质疑。从附图可以看出，3725点附近有进一步的支撑。如果这被打破，空头显然会掌权。与此同时，近期历史高点3,985点代表阻力位。</blockquote></p><p> What is different today compared to previous minor pullbacks is that several of our internal indicators have weakened considerably and are on sell signals: breadth, new highs vs. new lows, and equity-only put-call ratios.</p><p><blockquote>与之前的小幅回调相比，今天的不同之处在于，我们的几个内部指标已显着减弱并发出卖出信号：广度、新高与新低以及仅股票的看跌看涨期权比率。</blockquote></p><p> Equity-only put-call ratios remain on sell signals that were first generated in mid-February and that have strengthened by beginning to rise rapidly.&nbsp;They are still relatively low on their charts, meaning that there is a lot of room to move higher before one might say they are “oversold.”</p><p><blockquote>仅股票的看跌-看涨期权比率仍处于2月中旬首次产生的卖出信号，并通过开始快速上涨而加强。它们在图表上仍然相对较低，这意味着在人们可能会说它们“超卖”之前还有很大的走高空间。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bfd689fa18eceb515c752afa1cb024f7\" tg-width=\"620\" tg-height=\"465\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">LAWRENCE MCMILLAN<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9216bd23616405d8464aa44f5baea259\" tg-width=\"620\" tg-height=\"460\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">LAWRENCE MCMILLAN</p><p><blockquote>劳伦斯·麦克米兰劳伦斯·麦克米兰</blockquote></p><p> Breadth has deteriorated badly over the past two weeks – especially this last week. Sell signals were generated by the breadth oscillators on March 18 and March 19, and those oscillators have plunged since then.&nbsp;The “stocks only” breadth oscillator has already descended into oversold territory, but “oversold doesn’t mean buy.”</p><p><blockquote>广度在过去两周严重恶化，尤其是上周。3月18日和3月19日，广度振荡指标产生了卖出信号，此后这些振荡指标暴跌。“仅限股票”的广度振荡指标已经跌至超卖区域，但“超卖并不意味着买入”。</blockquote></p><p> The NYSE breadth oscillator is also moving lower, but at a much slower pace, since the more positive “Dow-type” stocks have a heavier weight in that oscillator.</p><p><blockquote>纽约证券交易所广度振荡指标也在走低，但速度要慢得多，因为更积极的“道琼斯型”股票在该振荡指标中的权重更大。</blockquote></p><p> Meanwhile, cumulative breadth has fallen sharply as well. That is not a signal, but it is worth noting that the “stocks only” cumulative advance-decline line has fallen almost 10,000 issues since the cumulative A-D line reached an all-time high on March 15 (that is, over that time, summing the daily figures, declines have outnumbered advances by 10,000 issues).</p><p><blockquote>与此同时，累计广度也大幅下降。这不是一个信号，但值得注意的是，自3月15日累计A-D线达到历史新高以来，“仅股票”累计上涨-下跌线已经下跌了近10,000期（也就是说，在此期间，将每日数据相加，下跌数量超过上涨数量10,000期）。</blockquote></p><p> A significant development has also occurred in the case of the “new highs vs. new lows” indicator. On March 23, new 52-week lows outnumbered new 52-week highs andnew 52-week lows numbered more than 100 issues — the first time that has happened since last May.&nbsp;That was the case again on March 24.&nbsp;That places this indicator on a sell signal until new highs take control once again.</p><p><blockquote>“新高对新低”指标也出现了重大发展。3月23日，52周新低数量超过52周新高，52周新低数量超过100期——这是自去年5月以来首次发生。3月24日再次出现这种情况。这使得该指标处于卖出信号，直到新高再次占据主导地位。</blockquote></p><p> Countering the negativity of put-call ratios, breadth, and new highs vs. new lows, is the fact that the volatility indicators still remain generally bullish. VIX has not risen substantially (yet), so the “spike peak” buy signal of March 4 remains in place.</p><p><blockquote>与看跌看涨期权比率、广度以及新高与新低的负面影响相反，波动性指标仍然普遍看涨。VIX尚未大幅上涨，因此3月4日的“峰值”买入信号仍然存在。</blockquote></p><p> Moreover, the trend of VIXVIX,-6.56%continues to be lower, as both VIX and its 20-day moving average are below the declining 200-day moving average. In fact, on March 22, VIX closed at its lowest price (18.88) since February 2020.</p><p><blockquote>此外，VIXVIX,-6.56%的趋势继续走低，因为VIX及其20日移动平均线均低于下降的200日移动平均线。事实上，3月22日，VIX收于2020年2月以来的最低价（18.88）。</blockquote></p><p> If VIX should continue to fall below there, it would be a bullish sign for stocks.</p><p><blockquote>如果VIX继续跌破该水平，这将是股市的看涨信号。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c5d40b1aedd4e9457306d25814439c92\" tg-width=\"620\" tg-height=\"465\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">LAWRENCE MCMILLAN</p><p><blockquote>劳伦斯·麦克米兰</blockquote></p><p> As we’ve noted previously, the fact that VIX has remained so high all during the huge rally over the past year has been a worrisome sign for many traders. But the traders that were keeping VIX higher were actually correct, because realized volatility of SPX (i.e., its 20-day historical volatility) has been just below 20 since early March. Thus, realized volatility rose to meet implied volatility, rather than the other way around (which is more often the case).</p><p><blockquote>正如我们之前指出的，VIX在过去一年的大幅上涨期间一直保持在如此高的水平，这对许多交易者来说是一个令人担忧的迹象。但维持VIX走高的交易员实际上是正确的，因为自3月初以来，SPX的已实现波动率（即其20天历史波动率）一直略低于20。因此，已实现波动率上升是为了满足隐含波动率，而不是相反（这种情况更常见）。</blockquote></p><p> Now, if one wants to make the case that it is worrisome to see both forms of volatility this high, then so be it. But there is no longer any significant difference between the S&amp;P’s realized and implied volatility.</p><p><blockquote>现在，如果有人想证明看到这两种形式的波动如此之高令人担忧，那就这样吧。但标普的已实现和隐含波动率之间不再存在任何显著差异。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> The construct of volatility derivatives has remained bullish throughout.&nbsp;VIX futures are all trading at premiums to VIX, and the term structure slopes upward through the coming summer. Similarly, the term structure of the CBOE Volatility Indices slopes upward through the next six months as well.</p><p><blockquote>波动性衍生品的结构始终保持看涨。VIX期货的交易价格都高于VIX，期限结构在即将到来的夏季向上倾斜。同样，芝加哥期权交易所波动率指数的期限结构在未来六个月也向上倾斜。</blockquote></p><p> The first sign of a negative reversal here would be if the April VIX futures traded above the price of May VIX futures.</p><p><blockquote>负面逆转的第一个迹象是4月份VIX期货的交易价格高于5月份VIX期货的价格。</blockquote></p><p> Near-term deterioration in some internal indicators is certainly a cause for worry, and small countertrend bearish positions can be taken because of that. However, the S&amp;P’s trend is still higher, and the trend of VIX is still lower – both bullish factors. So we still maintaining a “core” bullish position until those two trends are broken.</p><p><blockquote>一些内部指标的近期恶化无疑令人担忧，因此可以建立小型逆势看跌头寸。然而，标普的趋势仍然更高，VIX的趋势仍然更低——两者都是看涨因素。因此，我们仍然维持“核心”看涨立场，直到这两个趋势被打破。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1603348471595","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Stay bullish on the stock market in the face of some fresh sell signals<blockquote>面对一些新的卖出信号，保持看涨股市</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nStay bullish on the stock market in the face of some fresh sell signals<blockquote>面对一些新的卖出信号，保持看涨股市</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">marketwatch</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-03-26 11:54</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>The stock market continues to be led by the Dow Jones Industrial Average,with NASDAQ&nbsp;lagging noticeably behind, and the S&amp;P 500 indexcaught somewhere in the middle. This is not a good scenario for stocks.</p><p><blockquote>股市继续由道琼斯工业平均指数领涨，纳斯达克明显落后，标普500指数介于两者之间。对于股票来说，这不是一个好的情况。</blockquote></p><p> There is an old adage that it is not good for the market if the Generals are out in front of the Army (the “Generals” being General Motors, General Electric, etc. – i.e., the mainstays of the Dow of days gone by; the “Army” being the main body of stocks). The point is that if the advance is narrow and limited to the largest institutional stocks, then trouble lies ahead.</p><p><blockquote>有一句古老的谚语说，如果将军们在军队前面，对市场没有好处（“将军”是通用汽车、通用电气等。–即过去道琼斯指数的中流砥柱；“军队”是股票的主体）。关键是，如果涨幅狭窄且仅限于最大的机构股，那么麻烦就在前方。</blockquote></p><p> It is a good point, but too vague to implement as a trading system. We would normally see that reflected in breadth (which is now giving a sell signal) and new highs vs. new lows (which is also on a sell signal).</p><p><blockquote>这是一个很好的观点，但太模糊了，无法作为一个交易系统来实施。我们通常会看到这反映在广度（现在给出卖出信号）和新高与新低（也是卖出信号）上。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c46ab28413e089cb3da5f328292ad4e7\" tg-width=\"620\" tg-height=\"465\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">LAWRENCE MCMILLAN</p><p><blockquote>劳伦斯·麦克米兰</blockquote></p><p> One positive thing is that the SPX chart is still in an uptrend, as the moving averages and “modified Bollinger Bands” are still trending higher. However, if the S&amp;P breaks through support at 3,870, that uptrend would be called into question. As one can see from the accompanying chart, there is further support near 3,725. If that is broken, the bears would clearly be in charge. Meanwhile, the recent all-time highs, at 3,985, represent resistance.</p><p><blockquote>一件积极的事情是，SPX图表仍处于上升趋势，因为移动平均线和“修正布林线”仍呈走高趋势。然而，如果标准普尔指数突破3,870点的支撑位，这一上升趋势将受到质疑。从附图可以看出，3725点附近有进一步的支撑。如果这被打破，空头显然会掌权。与此同时，近期历史高点3,985点代表阻力位。</blockquote></p><p> What is different today compared to previous minor pullbacks is that several of our internal indicators have weakened considerably and are on sell signals: breadth, new highs vs. new lows, and equity-only put-call ratios.</p><p><blockquote>与之前的小幅回调相比，今天的不同之处在于，我们的几个内部指标已显着减弱并发出卖出信号：广度、新高与新低以及仅股票的看跌看涨期权比率。</blockquote></p><p> Equity-only put-call ratios remain on sell signals that were first generated in mid-February and that have strengthened by beginning to rise rapidly.&nbsp;They are still relatively low on their charts, meaning that there is a lot of room to move higher before one might say they are “oversold.”</p><p><blockquote>仅股票的看跌-看涨期权比率仍处于2月中旬首次产生的卖出信号，并通过开始快速上涨而加强。它们在图表上仍然相对较低，这意味着在人们可能会说它们“超卖”之前还有很大的走高空间。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bfd689fa18eceb515c752afa1cb024f7\" tg-width=\"620\" tg-height=\"465\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">LAWRENCE MCMILLAN<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9216bd23616405d8464aa44f5baea259\" tg-width=\"620\" tg-height=\"460\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">LAWRENCE MCMILLAN</p><p><blockquote>劳伦斯·麦克米兰劳伦斯·麦克米兰</blockquote></p><p> Breadth has deteriorated badly over the past two weeks – especially this last week. Sell signals were generated by the breadth oscillators on March 18 and March 19, and those oscillators have plunged since then.&nbsp;The “stocks only” breadth oscillator has already descended into oversold territory, but “oversold doesn’t mean buy.”</p><p><blockquote>广度在过去两周严重恶化，尤其是上周。3月18日和3月19日，广度振荡指标产生了卖出信号，此后这些振荡指标暴跌。“仅限股票”的广度振荡指标已经跌至超卖区域，但“超卖并不意味着买入”。</blockquote></p><p> The NYSE breadth oscillator is also moving lower, but at a much slower pace, since the more positive “Dow-type” stocks have a heavier weight in that oscillator.</p><p><blockquote>纽约证券交易所广度振荡指标也在走低，但速度要慢得多，因为更积极的“道琼斯型”股票在该振荡指标中的权重更大。</blockquote></p><p> Meanwhile, cumulative breadth has fallen sharply as well. That is not a signal, but it is worth noting that the “stocks only” cumulative advance-decline line has fallen almost 10,000 issues since the cumulative A-D line reached an all-time high on March 15 (that is, over that time, summing the daily figures, declines have outnumbered advances by 10,000 issues).</p><p><blockquote>与此同时，累计广度也大幅下降。这不是一个信号，但值得注意的是，自3月15日累计A-D线达到历史新高以来，“仅股票”累计上涨-下跌线已经下跌了近10,000期（也就是说，在此期间，将每日数据相加，下跌数量超过上涨数量10,000期）。</blockquote></p><p> A significant development has also occurred in the case of the “new highs vs. new lows” indicator. On March 23, new 52-week lows outnumbered new 52-week highs andnew 52-week lows numbered more than 100 issues — the first time that has happened since last May.&nbsp;That was the case again on March 24.&nbsp;That places this indicator on a sell signal until new highs take control once again.</p><p><blockquote>“新高对新低”指标也出现了重大发展。3月23日，52周新低数量超过52周新高，52周新低数量超过100期——这是自去年5月以来首次发生。3月24日再次出现这种情况。这使得该指标处于卖出信号，直到新高再次占据主导地位。</blockquote></p><p> Countering the negativity of put-call ratios, breadth, and new highs vs. new lows, is the fact that the volatility indicators still remain generally bullish. VIX has not risen substantially (yet), so the “spike peak” buy signal of March 4 remains in place.</p><p><blockquote>与看跌看涨期权比率、广度以及新高与新低的负面影响相反，波动性指标仍然普遍看涨。VIX尚未大幅上涨，因此3月4日的“峰值”买入信号仍然存在。</blockquote></p><p> Moreover, the trend of VIXVIX,-6.56%continues to be lower, as both VIX and its 20-day moving average are below the declining 200-day moving average. In fact, on March 22, VIX closed at its lowest price (18.88) since February 2020.</p><p><blockquote>此外，VIXVIX,-6.56%的趋势继续走低，因为VIX及其20日移动平均线均低于下降的200日移动平均线。事实上，3月22日，VIX收于2020年2月以来的最低价（18.88）。</blockquote></p><p> If VIX should continue to fall below there, it would be a bullish sign for stocks.</p><p><blockquote>如果VIX继续跌破该水平，这将是股市的看涨信号。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c5d40b1aedd4e9457306d25814439c92\" tg-width=\"620\" tg-height=\"465\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">LAWRENCE MCMILLAN</p><p><blockquote>劳伦斯·麦克米兰</blockquote></p><p> As we’ve noted previously, the fact that VIX has remained so high all during the huge rally over the past year has been a worrisome sign for many traders. But the traders that were keeping VIX higher were actually correct, because realized volatility of SPX (i.e., its 20-day historical volatility) has been just below 20 since early March. Thus, realized volatility rose to meet implied volatility, rather than the other way around (which is more often the case).</p><p><blockquote>正如我们之前指出的，VIX在过去一年的大幅上涨期间一直保持在如此高的水平，这对许多交易者来说是一个令人担忧的迹象。但维持VIX走高的交易员实际上是正确的，因为自3月初以来，SPX的已实现波动率（即其20天历史波动率）一直略低于20。因此，已实现波动率上升是为了满足隐含波动率，而不是相反（这种情况更常见）。</blockquote></p><p> Now, if one wants to make the case that it is worrisome to see both forms of volatility this high, then so be it. But there is no longer any significant difference between the S&amp;P’s realized and implied volatility.</p><p><blockquote>现在，如果有人想证明看到这两种形式的波动如此之高令人担忧，那就这样吧。但标普的已实现和隐含波动率之间不再存在任何显著差异。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> The construct of volatility derivatives has remained bullish throughout.&nbsp;VIX futures are all trading at premiums to VIX, and the term structure slopes upward through the coming summer. Similarly, the term structure of the CBOE Volatility Indices slopes upward through the next six months as well.</p><p><blockquote>波动性衍生品的结构始终保持看涨。VIX期货的交易价格都高于VIX，期限结构在即将到来的夏季向上倾斜。同样，芝加哥期权交易所波动率指数的期限结构在未来六个月也向上倾斜。</blockquote></p><p> The first sign of a negative reversal here would be if the April VIX futures traded above the price of May VIX futures.</p><p><blockquote>负面逆转的第一个迹象是4月份VIX期货的交易价格高于5月份VIX期货的价格。</blockquote></p><p> Near-term deterioration in some internal indicators is certainly a cause for worry, and small countertrend bearish positions can be taken because of that. However, the S&amp;P’s trend is still higher, and the trend of VIX is still lower – both bullish factors. So we still maintaining a “core” bullish position until those two trends are broken.</p><p><blockquote>一些内部指标的近期恶化无疑令人担忧，因此可以建立小型逆势看跌头寸。然而，标普的趋势仍然更高，VIX的趋势仍然更低——两者都是看涨因素。因此，我们仍然维持“核心”看涨立场，直到这两个趋势被打破。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/stay-bullish-on-the-stock-market-in-the-face-of-some-fresh-sell-signals-01616682019?mod=home-page\">marketwatch</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5d8fb95e65f042f352c6313989391357","relate_stocks":{".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/stay-bullish-on-the-stock-market-in-the-face-of-some-fresh-sell-signals-01616682019?mod=home-page","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1100799979","content_text":"The stock market continues to be led by the Dow Jones Industrial Average,with NASDAQ lagging noticeably behind, and the S&P 500 indexcaught somewhere in the middle. This is not a good scenario for stocks.\nThere is an old adage that it is not good for the market if the Generals are out in front of the Army (the “Generals” being General Motors, General Electric, etc. – i.e., the mainstays of the Dow of days gone by; the “Army” being the main body of stocks). The point is that if the advance is narrow and limited to the largest institutional stocks, then trouble lies ahead.\nIt is a good point, but too vague to implement as a trading system. We would normally see that reflected in breadth (which is now giving a sell signal) and new highs vs. new lows (which is also on a sell signal).\nLAWRENCE MCMILLAN\nOne positive thing is that the SPX chart is still in an uptrend, as the moving averages and “modified Bollinger Bands” are still trending higher. However, if the S&P breaks through support at 3,870, that uptrend would be called into question. As one can see from the accompanying chart, there is further support near 3,725. If that is broken, the bears would clearly be in charge. Meanwhile, the recent all-time highs, at 3,985, represent resistance.\nWhat is different today compared to previous minor pullbacks is that several of our internal indicators have weakened considerably and are on sell signals: breadth, new highs vs. new lows, and equity-only put-call ratios.\nEquity-only put-call ratios remain on sell signals that were first generated in mid-February and that have strengthened by beginning to rise rapidly. They are still relatively low on their charts, meaning that there is a lot of room to move higher before one might say they are “oversold.”\nLAWRENCE MCMILLANLAWRENCE MCMILLAN\nBreadth has deteriorated badly over the past two weeks – especially this last week. Sell signals were generated by the breadth oscillators on March 18 and March 19, and those oscillators have plunged since then. The “stocks only” breadth oscillator has already descended into oversold territory, but “oversold doesn’t mean buy.”\nThe NYSE breadth oscillator is also moving lower, but at a much slower pace, since the more positive “Dow-type” stocks have a heavier weight in that oscillator.\nMeanwhile, cumulative breadth has fallen sharply as well. That is not a signal, but it is worth noting that the “stocks only” cumulative advance-decline line has fallen almost 10,000 issues since the cumulative A-D line reached an all-time high on March 15 (that is, over that time, summing the daily figures, declines have outnumbered advances by 10,000 issues).\nA significant development has also occurred in the case of the “new highs vs. new lows” indicator. On March 23, new 52-week lows outnumbered new 52-week highs andnew 52-week lows numbered more than 100 issues — the first time that has happened since last May. That was the case again on March 24. That places this indicator on a sell signal until new highs take control once again.\nCountering the negativity of put-call ratios, breadth, and new highs vs. new lows, is the fact that the volatility indicators still remain generally bullish. VIX has not risen substantially (yet), so the “spike peak” buy signal of March 4 remains in place.\nMoreover, the trend of VIXVIX,-6.56%continues to be lower, as both VIX and its 20-day moving average are below the declining 200-day moving average. In fact, on March 22, VIX closed at its lowest price (18.88) since February 2020.\nIf VIX should continue to fall below there, it would be a bullish sign for stocks.\nLAWRENCE MCMILLAN\nAs we’ve noted previously, the fact that VIX has remained so high all during the huge rally over the past year has been a worrisome sign for many traders. But the traders that were keeping VIX higher were actually correct, because realized volatility of SPX (i.e., its 20-day historical volatility) has been just below 20 since early March. Thus, realized volatility rose to meet implied volatility, rather than the other way around (which is more often the case).\nNow, if one wants to make the case that it is worrisome to see both forms of volatility this high, then so be it. But there is no longer any significant difference between the S&P’s realized and implied volatility.\nThe construct of volatility derivatives has remained bullish throughout. VIX futures are all trading at premiums to VIX, and the term structure slopes upward through the coming summer. Similarly, the term structure of the CBOE Volatility Indices slopes upward through the next six months as well.\nThe first sign of a negative reversal here would be if the April VIX futures traded above the price of May VIX futures.\nNear-term deterioration in some internal indicators is certainly a cause for worry, and small countertrend bearish positions can be taken because of that. However, the S&P’s trend is still higher, and the trend of VIX is still lower – both bullish factors. So we still maintaining a “core” bullish position until those two trends are broken.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".SPX":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2274,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":322314731,"gmtCreate":1615773652823,"gmtModify":1703492736442,"author":{"id":"3568069882275792","authorId":"3568069882275792","name":"NoviceK","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/717a700218452fb1ccf7954943014836","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3568069882275792","authorIdStr":"3568069882275792"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Nice move [开心]&nbsp;","listText":"Nice move [开心]&nbsp;","text":"Nice move [开心]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/322314731","repostId":"2119999060","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1253,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":354226022,"gmtCreate":1617180476466,"gmtModify":1634522233108,"author":{"id":"3568069882275792","authorId":"3568069882275792","name":"NoviceK","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/717a700218452fb1ccf7954943014836","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3568069882275792","authorIdStr":"3568069882275792"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Like and comment if you need the same","listText":"Like and comment if you need the same","text":"Like and comment if you need the same","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/354226022","repostId":"1163996400","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2614,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":358074741,"gmtCreate":1616645938283,"gmtModify":1634524749264,"author":{"id":"3568069882275792","authorId":"3568069882275792","name":"NoviceK","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/717a700218452fb1ccf7954943014836","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3568069882275792","authorIdStr":"3568069882275792"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Like and comment if you want the same","listText":"Like and comment if you want the same","text":"Like and comment if you want the same","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/358074741","repostId":"1123323320","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1123323320","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1616644810,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1123323320?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-03-25 12:00","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Jobless claims preview: Another 730,000 Americans likely filed new unemployment claims<blockquote>初请失业金人数预览：另有73万美国人可能申请新的初请失业金</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1123323320","media":"yahoo","summary":"U.S. states are expected to have seen a drop in initial unemployment claims filings last week, albei","content":"<p>U.S. states are expected to have seen a drop in initial unemployment claims filings last week, albeit to a level that would still reflect a weak labor market compared to pre-pandemic conditions.</p><p><blockquote>预计美国各州上周首次申请失业救济人数将有所下降，尽管与大流行前的情况相比，这一水平仍反映出劳动力市场疲软。</blockquote></p><p> The Department of Labor is set to release its weekly report on new jobless claims on Thursday at 8:30 a.m. ET. Here are the main metrics expected from the report, compared to consensus data compiled by Bloomberg:</p><p><blockquote>美国劳工部将于美国东部时间周四上午8:30发布每周新申请失业救济人数报告。与彭博社编制的共识数据相比，以下是该报告预期的主要指标：</blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li><b>Initial jobless claims, week ended March 20:</b>730,000 expected vs. 770,000 during the prior week</p><p><blockquote><ul><li><b>截至3月20日当周首次申请失业救济人数：</b>预期为730,000人，前一周为770,000人</li></ul></blockquote></p><p></li>  <li><b>Continuing claims, week ended March 13:</b>4 million expected vs. 4.124 million during the prior week</p><p><blockquote><li><b>截至3月13日当周的持续索赔：</b>预期为400万，而前一周为412.4万</li></blockquote></p><p></li> </ul> Initial unemployment claims likely held below 800,000 for a fifth straight week and declined after last week's unexpected jump in new claims. The year-over-year improvements will be even more pronounced: During the same week in 2020, new claims rocketed to more than 3 million as the pandemic's initial impacts reverberated across the labor market.</p><p><blockquote>首次申请失业救济人数可能连续第五周保持在80万以下，并在上周新申请失业救济人数意外激增后有所下降。同比改善将更加明显：在2020年的同一周，随着疫情的初步影响在整个劳动力市场产生反响，新申请失业救济人数飙升至300多万。</blockquote></p><p> But while claims have come down considerably from those highs, they remain sharply elevated from 2019 levels, when new claims averaged just over 200,000 per week. Plus, improvements have stagnated in recent months, and claims have yet to break below levels seen in November.</p><p><blockquote>不过，尽管申请失业救济人数较这些高点大幅下降，但仍较2019年的水平大幅上升，当时平均每周新增申请失业救济人数略高于20万人。此外，近几个月来改善停滞不前，申请失业救济人数尚未低于11月份的水平。</blockquote></p><p> And based on the total of claimants counted across all unemployment programs, a staggering number of Americans remain out of work. As of the end of February, more than 18 million individuals were still claiming unemployment benefits of some form, including via the federal Pandemic Unemployment Assistance and Pandemic Emergency Unemployment Compensation program, which offers extended benefits to those who have exhausted their regular state insurance.</p><p><blockquote>根据所有失业计划的申请人数，仍有数量惊人的美国人失业。截至2月底，仍有超过1800万人在申请某种形式的失业救济金，包括通过联邦疫情失业援助和疫情紧急失业补偿计划，该计划为那些用尽常规州保险的人提供延长福利。</blockquote></p><p> The slow march forward for labor market progress has not been lost on policymakers. In congressional testimony on earlier this week,Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen told the U.S. House Committee on Financial Servicesthat \"we should be clear-eyed about the hole we're digging out of\" even as the data shows some signs of recovery, given that the country is still down by nearly 10 million jobs compared to its pre-pandemic peak.</p><p><blockquote>政策制定者并没有忽视劳动力市场进展缓慢的事实。在本周早些时候的国会证词中，财政部长珍妮特·耶伦(Janet Yellen)告诉美国众议院金融服务委员会，“我们应该清醒地认识到我们正在挖的洞”，尽管数据显示出一些复苏的迹象，但鉴于与大流行前的峰值相比，该国的就业岗位仍减少了近1000万个。</blockquote></p><p> Still, many economists are optimistic the rebound will pick up momentum in the coming weeks and months, especially with the vaccination program accelerating across the country.</p><p><blockquote>尽管如此，许多经济学家乐观地认为，反弹将在未来几周和几个月内加快势头，特别是随着疫苗接种计划在全国范围内加速。</blockquote></p><p> \"With the increased pace of COVID-19 vaccinations, federal stimulus spending and winter’s grip easing across much of the country, it is quite reasonable to harbor upbeat expectations for the U.S. economy,\" Mark Hamrick, senior economist analyst at Bankrate, wrote in a note. \"This should be reflected in more of the economic data in the months ahead.\"</p><p><blockquote>Bankrate高级经济学家分析师马克·哈姆里克(Mark Hamrick)在一份报告中写道：“随着COVID-19疫苗接种步伐的加快、联邦刺激支出以及美国大部分地区冬季控制的缓解，对美国经济抱有乐观预期是相当合理的。”笔记。“这应该会在未来几个月的更多经济数据中得到体现。”</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1584348713084","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Jobless claims preview: Another 730,000 Americans likely filed new unemployment claims<blockquote>初请失业金人数预览：另有73万美国人可能申请新的初请失业金</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; 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color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nJobless claims preview: Another 730,000 Americans likely filed new unemployment claims<blockquote>初请失业金人数预览：另有73万美国人可能申请新的初请失业金</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">yahoo</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-03-25 12:00</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>U.S. states are expected to have seen a drop in initial unemployment claims filings last week, albeit to a level that would still reflect a weak labor market compared to pre-pandemic conditions.</p><p><blockquote>预计美国各州上周首次申请失业救济人数将有所下降，尽管与大流行前的情况相比，这一水平仍反映出劳动力市场疲软。</blockquote></p><p> The Department of Labor is set to release its weekly report on new jobless claims on Thursday at 8:30 a.m. ET. Here are the main metrics expected from the report, compared to consensus data compiled by Bloomberg:</p><p><blockquote>美国劳工部将于美国东部时间周四上午8:30发布每周新申请失业救济人数报告。与彭博社编制的共识数据相比，以下是该报告预期的主要指标：</blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li><b>Initial jobless claims, week ended March 20:</b>730,000 expected vs. 770,000 during the prior week</p><p><blockquote><ul><li><b>截至3月20日当周首次申请失业救济人数：</b>预期为730,000人，前一周为770,000人</li></ul></blockquote></p><p></li>  <li><b>Continuing claims, week ended March 13:</b>4 million expected vs. 4.124 million during the prior week</p><p><blockquote><li><b>截至3月13日当周的持续索赔：</b>预期为400万，而前一周为412.4万</li></blockquote></p><p></li> </ul> Initial unemployment claims likely held below 800,000 for a fifth straight week and declined after last week's unexpected jump in new claims. The year-over-year improvements will be even more pronounced: During the same week in 2020, new claims rocketed to more than 3 million as the pandemic's initial impacts reverberated across the labor market.</p><p><blockquote>首次申请失业救济人数可能连续第五周保持在80万以下，并在上周新申请失业救济人数意外激增后有所下降。同比改善将更加明显：在2020年的同一周，随着疫情的初步影响在整个劳动力市场产生反响，新申请失业救济人数飙升至300多万。</blockquote></p><p> But while claims have come down considerably from those highs, they remain sharply elevated from 2019 levels, when new claims averaged just over 200,000 per week. Plus, improvements have stagnated in recent months, and claims have yet to break below levels seen in November.</p><p><blockquote>不过，尽管申请失业救济人数较这些高点大幅下降，但仍较2019年的水平大幅上升，当时平均每周新增申请失业救济人数略高于20万人。此外，近几个月来改善停滞不前，申请失业救济人数尚未低于11月份的水平。</blockquote></p><p> And based on the total of claimants counted across all unemployment programs, a staggering number of Americans remain out of work. As of the end of February, more than 18 million individuals were still claiming unemployment benefits of some form, including via the federal Pandemic Unemployment Assistance and Pandemic Emergency Unemployment Compensation program, which offers extended benefits to those who have exhausted their regular state insurance.</p><p><blockquote>根据所有失业计划的申请人数，仍有数量惊人的美国人失业。截至2月底，仍有超过1800万人在申请某种形式的失业救济金，包括通过联邦疫情失业援助和疫情紧急失业补偿计划，该计划为那些用尽常规州保险的人提供延长福利。</blockquote></p><p> The slow march forward for labor market progress has not been lost on policymakers. In congressional testimony on earlier this week,Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen told the U.S. House Committee on Financial Servicesthat \"we should be clear-eyed about the hole we're digging out of\" even as the data shows some signs of recovery, given that the country is still down by nearly 10 million jobs compared to its pre-pandemic peak.</p><p><blockquote>政策制定者并没有忽视劳动力市场进展缓慢的事实。在本周早些时候的国会证词中，财政部长珍妮特·耶伦(Janet Yellen)告诉美国众议院金融服务委员会，“我们应该清醒地认识到我们正在挖的洞”，尽管数据显示出一些复苏的迹象，但鉴于与大流行前的峰值相比，该国的就业岗位仍减少了近1000万个。</blockquote></p><p> Still, many economists are optimistic the rebound will pick up momentum in the coming weeks and months, especially with the vaccination program accelerating across the country.</p><p><blockquote>尽管如此，许多经济学家乐观地认为，反弹将在未来几周和几个月内加快势头，特别是随着疫苗接种计划在全国范围内加速。</blockquote></p><p> \"With the increased pace of COVID-19 vaccinations, federal stimulus spending and winter’s grip easing across much of the country, it is quite reasonable to harbor upbeat expectations for the U.S. economy,\" Mark Hamrick, senior economist analyst at Bankrate, wrote in a note. \"This should be reflected in more of the economic data in the months ahead.\"</p><p><blockquote>Bankrate高级经济学家分析师马克·哈姆里克(Mark Hamrick)在一份报告中写道：“随着COVID-19疫苗接种步伐的加快、联邦刺激支出以及美国大部分地区冬季控制的缓解，对美国经济抱有乐观预期是相当合理的。”笔记。“这应该会在未来几个月的更多经济数据中得到体现。”</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://finance.yahoo.com/news/weekly-jobless-claims-week-ended-march-20-2021-pandemic-165400695-182038606.html\">yahoo</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"https://finance.yahoo.com/news/weekly-jobless-claims-week-ended-march-20-2021-pandemic-165400695-182038606.html","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1123323320","content_text":"U.S. states are expected to have seen a drop in initial unemployment claims filings last week, albeit to a level that would still reflect a weak labor market compared to pre-pandemic conditions.\nThe Department of Labor is set to release its weekly report on new jobless claims on Thursday at 8:30 a.m. ET. Here are the main metrics expected from the report, compared to consensus data compiled by Bloomberg:\n\nInitial jobless claims, week ended March 20:730,000 expected vs. 770,000 during the prior week\nContinuing claims, week ended March 13:4 million expected vs. 4.124 million during the prior week\n\nInitial unemployment claims likely held below 800,000 for a fifth straight week and declined after last week's unexpected jump in new claims. The year-over-year improvements will be even more pronounced: During the same week in 2020, new claims rocketed to more than 3 million as the pandemic's initial impacts reverberated across the labor market.\nBut while claims have come down considerably from those highs, they remain sharply elevated from 2019 levels, when new claims averaged just over 200,000 per week. Plus, improvements have stagnated in recent months, and claims have yet to break below levels seen in November.\nAnd based on the total of claimants counted across all unemployment programs, a staggering number of Americans remain out of work. As of the end of February, more than 18 million individuals were still claiming unemployment benefits of some form, including via the federal Pandemic Unemployment Assistance and Pandemic Emergency Unemployment Compensation program, which offers extended benefits to those who have exhausted their regular state insurance.\nThe slow march forward for labor market progress has not been lost on policymakers. In congressional testimony on earlier this week,Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen told the U.S. House Committee on Financial Servicesthat \"we should be clear-eyed about the hole we're digging out of\" even as the data shows some signs of recovery, given that the country is still down by nearly 10 million jobs compared to its pre-pandemic peak.\nStill, many economists are optimistic the rebound will pick up momentum in the coming weeks and months, especially with the vaccination program accelerating across the country.\n\"With the increased pace of COVID-19 vaccinations, federal stimulus spending and winter’s grip easing across much of the country, it is quite reasonable to harbor upbeat expectations for the U.S. economy,\" Mark Hamrick, senior economist analyst at Bankrate, wrote in a note. \"This should be reflected in more of the economic data in the months ahead.\"","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1505,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":350543625,"gmtCreate":1616239130767,"gmtModify":1634526614895,"author":{"id":"3568069882275792","authorId":"3568069882275792","name":"NoviceK","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/717a700218452fb1ccf7954943014836","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3568069882275792","authorIdStr":"3568069882275792"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"No faith in it","listText":"No faith in it","text":"No faith in it","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/350543625","repostId":"1136440314","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":534,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":314076268,"gmtCreate":1612282363854,"gmtModify":1703759971109,"author":{"id":"3568069882275792","authorId":"3568069882275792","name":"NoviceK","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/717a700218452fb1ccf7954943014836","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3568069882275792","authorIdStr":"3568069882275792"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"合拼以后， LGVW 的股份会怎么样？有谁在持有LGVW股的？","listText":"合拼以后， LGVW 的股份会怎么样？有谁在持有LGVW股的？","text":"合拼以后， LGVW 的股份会怎么样？有谁在持有LGVW股的？","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/314076268","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1868,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3527667803686145","authorId":"3527667803686145","name":"社区成长助手","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2b7c7106b5c0c8b0037faa67439d898f","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3527667803686145","authorIdStr":"3527667803686145"},"content":"终于等到了您的初发帖[比心][比心]发帖时关联相关股票或者相关话题，可以获得更多曝光哦～如果您想创作优质文章，请查看老虎社区创作指引","text":"终于等到了您的初发帖[比心][比心]发帖时关联相关股票或者相关话题，可以获得更多曝光哦～如果您想创作优质文章，请查看老虎社区创作指引","html":"终于等到了您的初发帖[比心][比心]发帖时关联相关股票或者相关话题，可以获得更多曝光哦～如果您想创作优质文章，请查看老虎社区创作指引"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":320329369,"gmtCreate":1615020218051,"gmtModify":1703484279367,"author":{"id":"3568069882275792","authorId":"3568069882275792","name":"NoviceK","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/717a700218452fb1ccf7954943014836","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3568069882275792","authorIdStr":"3568069882275792"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Pltr stonk","listText":"Pltr stonk","text":"Pltr stonk","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/320329369","repostId":"1169596583","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1169596583","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据，旨在帮助投资者理解世界，做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1614958557,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1169596583?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-03-05 23:35","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Palantir plunged more than 13%<blockquote>Palantir暴跌超13%</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1169596583","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"(March 5)&nbsp;Palantir plunged more than 13%.","content":"<p>(March 5)&nbsp;Palantir plunged more than 13%.</p><p><blockquote>（3月5日）Palantir暴跌超13%。</blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/13f756ec57cca85c31b6be070941d7c1\" tg-width=\"1059\" tg-height=\"499\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Palantir plunged more than 13%<blockquote>Palantir暴跌超13%</blockquote></title>\n<style 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#7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nPalantir plunged more than 13%<blockquote>Palantir暴跌超13%</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-03-05 23:35</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>(March 5)&nbsp;Palantir plunged more than 13%.</p><p><blockquote>（3月5日）Palantir暴跌超13%。</blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/13f756ec57cca85c31b6be070941d7c1\" tg-width=\"1059\" tg-height=\"499\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"PLTR":"Palantir Technologies Inc."},"is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1169596583","content_text":"(March 5) Palantir plunged more than 13%.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"PLTR":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":323,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":357848785,"gmtCreate":1617263714247,"gmtModify":1634521742702,"author":{"id":"3568069882275792","authorId":"3568069882275792","name":"NoviceK","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/717a700218452fb1ccf7954943014836","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3568069882275792","authorIdStr":"3568069882275792"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Gogogo","listText":"Gogogo","text":"Gogogo","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/357848785","repostId":"2124202817","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1006,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":320797265,"gmtCreate":1615174907557,"gmtModify":1703485206747,"author":{"id":"3568069882275792","authorId":"3568069882275792","name":"NoviceK","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/717a700218452fb1ccf7954943014836","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3568069882275792","authorIdStr":"3568069882275792"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Rebound is real or just another trap?","listText":"Rebound is real or just another trap?","text":"Rebound is real or just another 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sure you know?","listText":"&nbsp;You sure you know?","text":"You sure you know?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/343802179","repostId":"2125757547","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1047,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":329451450,"gmtCreate":1615273313470,"gmtModify":1703486563318,"author":{"id":"3568069882275792","authorId":"3568069882275792","name":"NoviceK","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/717a700218452fb1ccf7954943014836","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3568069882275792","authorIdStr":"3568069882275792"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"When will this correction come to an end?","listText":"When will this correction come to an end?","text":"When will this correction come to an end?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/329451450","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":521,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":367145724,"gmtCreate":1614927638568,"gmtModify":1703483059669,"author":{"id":"3568069882275792","authorId":"3568069882275792","name":"NoviceK","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/717a700218452fb1ccf7954943014836","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3568069882275792","authorIdStr":"3568069882275792"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BFLY\">$Butterfly Network Inc(BFLY)$</a>Nice! Lost all my lgvw gain!","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BFLY\">$Butterfly Network Inc(BFLY)$</a>Nice! Lost all my lgvw gain!","text":"$Butterfly Network Inc(BFLY)$Nice! Lost all my lgvw gain!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/367145724","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":472,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":343806707,"gmtCreate":1617697946609,"gmtModify":1634297055662,"author":{"id":"3568069882275792","authorId":"3568069882275792","name":"NoviceK","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/717a700218452fb1ccf7954943014836","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3568069882275792","authorIdStr":"3568069882275792"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Looking good","listText":"Looking good","text":"Looking good","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/343806707","repostId":"1101907559","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1101907559","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1617672655,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1101907559?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-04-06 09:30","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Opinion: Financial crises get triggered about every 10 years — Archegos might be right on time<blockquote>观点：金融危机大约每10年就会引发一次——Archegos可能准时出现</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1101907559","media":"marketwatch","summary":"No one, for now, can say for sure that the so-called family office’s billions in investment losses won’t spread.Financial crises are never quite the same. During the late 1980s, nearly a third of the nation’s savings and loan associations failed, ending with a taxpayer bailout — in 2021 terms — of about $265 billion.In 1997-1998, financial crises in Asia and Russia led to the near meltdown of the largest hedge fund in the U.S. —Long-Term Capital Management. Its reach and operating practices were","content":"<p>  <b>No one, for now, can say for sure that the so-called family office’s billions in investment losses won’t spread.</b>  Financial crises are never quite the same. During the late 1980s, nearly a third of the nation’s savings and loan associations failed, ending with a taxpayer bailout — in 2021 terms — of about $265 billion.</p><p><blockquote><b>目前，没有人能肯定地说，所谓的家族办公室数十亿美元的投资损失不会蔓延。</b>金融危机从来都不完全一样。20世纪80年代末，美国近三分之一的储蓄和贷款协会倒闭，最终获得了约2650亿美元的纳税人救助（按2021年计算）。</blockquote></p><p> In 1997-1998, financial crises in Asia and Russia led to the near meltdown of the largest hedge fund in the U.S. —Long-Term Capital Management(LTCM). Its reach and operating practices were such that Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan said that when LTCM failed, “he had never seen anything in his lifetime that compared to the terror” he felt. LTCM was deemed “too big to fail,” and he engineered a bailout by 14 major U.S. financial institutions.</p><p><blockquote>1997-1998年，亚洲和俄国的金融危机导致美国最大的对冲基金——长期资本管理公司（LTCM）几近崩溃。它的影响力和运营实践如此之大，以至于美联储主席艾伦·格林斯潘说，当LTCM失败时，“他一生中从未见过任何与他所感受到的恐怖相比的事情”。LTCM被认为“太大而不能倒”，他策划了对14家美国主要金融机构的救助。</blockquote></p><p> Exactly a decade later, too much leverage by some of those very institutions, and the bursting of a U.S. real estate bubble, led to the near collapse of the U.S. financial system. Once again, big banks were deemed too big to fail and taxpayers came to the rescue.</p><p><blockquote>整整十年后，其中一些机构的过度杠杆化，以及美国房地产泡沫的破裂，导致美国金融体系几近崩溃。大银行再一次被认为太大而不能倒，纳税人前来救援。</blockquote></p><p> The trend? Every 10 years or so, and they all look different.&nbsp;Are we in the early stages of a new crisis now, with the blowup at the family office Archegos Capital Management LP?</p><p><blockquote>趋势？每隔10年左右，它们看起来都不一样。随着家族办公室Archegos Capital Management LP的爆发，我们现在是否正处于新危机的早期阶段？</blockquote></p><p> A family office, for the uninitiated, is a private wealth management vehicle for the ultra-wealthy. Here’s what I mean by ultra-wealthy: Consulting firm EY estimates there are some 10,000 family offices globally, but manage, says a separate estimate by market research firm Campden Research, nearly $6 trillion. That $6 trillion is likely far higher now given that it’s based on 2019 data.</p><p><blockquote>对于外行人来说，家族办公室是超级富豪的私人财富管理工具。这就是我所说的超级富豪的意思：咨询公司安永估计全球约有10,000个家族理财室，但市场研究公司Campden Research的另一项估计称，管理家族理财室的规模接近6万亿美元。鉴于这6万亿美元是基于2019年的数据，现在可能要高得多。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Unregulated money managers</b></p><p><blockquote><b>不受监管的基金经理</b></blockquote></p><p> Here’s the potential danger. Family offices generally aren’t regulated. The 1940 Investment Advisers Act says firms with 15 clients or fewer don’t have to register with the Securities and Exchange Commission. What this means is that trillions of dollars are in play and no one can really say who’s running the money, what it’s invested in, how much leverage is being used, and what kind of counterparty risk may exist. (Counterparty risk is the probability that one party involved in a financial transaction could default on a contractual obligation to someone else.)</p><p><blockquote>这是潜在的危险。家族理财室通常不受监管。1940年《投资顾问法》规定，拥有15名或更少客户的公司无需向美国证券交易委员会注册。这意味着数万亿美元正在发挥作用，没有人能真正说出谁在管理这笔钱，它投资于什么，使用了多少杠杆，以及可能存在什么样的交易对手风险。（交易对手风险是指参与金融交易的一方可能违反对另一方的合同义务的概率。）</blockquote></p><p> This appears to be the case with Archegos. The firm bet heavily on certain Chinese stocks, including e-commerce player&nbsp;Vipshop Holdings&nbsp;Ltd.VIPS,-1.19%,U.S.-listed Chinese tutoring company&nbsp;GSX Techedu&nbsp;Inc.GSX,-10.63%and U.S. media companiesViacomCBS&nbsp;Inc.VIAC,-3.90%and&nbsp;Discovery&nbsp;Inc.DISCA,-3.86%,among others. Share prices have tumbled lately, sparking large sales — some $30 billion — by Archegos.</p><p><blockquote>Archegos似乎就是这种情况。该公司大举押注某些中国股票，包括电子商务公司唯品会控股有限公司VIPS，-1.19%，在美国上市的中国家教公司跟谁学GSX，-10.63%，以及美国媒体公司维亚康姆哥伦比亚广播公司VIAC，-3.90%和Discovery Inc.DISCA，-3.86%等。最近股价暴跌，引发Archegos的大量抛售（约300亿美元）。</blockquote></p><p> The problem is that only about a third of that, or $10 billion, was its own money. We now know that Archegos worked with some of the biggest names on Wall Street, including&nbsp;Credit Suisse Group AGCS,+1.59%,UBS Group AGUBS,+1.01%,Goldman Sachs Group Inc.GS,-1.25%,&nbsp;Morgan StanleyMS,-0.28%,Deutsche Bank AGDB,+0.74%and Nomura Holdings Inc.&nbsp;NMR,+1.87%.</p><p><blockquote>问题是，其中只有大约三分之一，即100亿美元，是它自己的钱。我们现在知道Archegos与华尔街的一些大牌合作，包括瑞士信贷集团AGCS，+1.59%，瑞银集团AGUBS，+1.01%，高盛集团Inc.GS，-1.25%，摩根士丹利MS，-0.28%，德意志银行AGDB，+0.74%，野村控股公司NMR，+1.87%。</blockquote></p><p> But since family offices are largely allowed to operate unregulated, who’s to say how much money is really involved here and what the extent of market risk is? My colleague Mark DeCambre&nbsp;reported last week that Archegos’ true exposures to bad trades could actuallybe closer to $100 billion.</p><p><blockquote>但由于家族办公室在很大程度上被允许不受监管地运营，谁能说这里真正涉及多少资金以及市场风险有多大？我的同事Mark DeCambre上周报告称，Archegos对不良交易的真实敞口实际上可能接近1000亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Danger of counterparty risk</b></p><p><blockquote><b>交易对手风险的危险性</b></blockquote></p><p> This is where counterparty risk comes in. As Archegos’ bets went south, the above banks — looking at losses of their own — hit the firm with margin calls. Deutsche quickly dumped about $4 billion in holdings, while Goldman and Morgan Stanley are also said to have unwound their positions, perhaps limiting their downside.</p><p><blockquote>这就是交易对手风险的用武之地。随着Archegos的赌注落空，上述银行考虑到自己的损失，以保证金评级打击了该公司。德意志银行迅速抛售了约40亿美元的持股，而高盛和摩根士丹利据说也已平仓，这或许限制了它们的下跌空间。</blockquote></p><p> So is this a financial crisis? It doesn’t appear to be. Even so, the Securities and Exchange Commission has opened a preliminary investigation into Archegos and its founder, Bill Hwang.</p><p><blockquote>那么这是金融危机吗？似乎不是。即便如此，美国证券交易委员会还是对Archegos及其创始人Bill Hwang展开了初步调查。</blockquote></p><p> One peer, Tom Lee, the research chief of Fundstrat Global Advisors, calls Hwang one of the “top 10 of the best investment minds” he knows.</p><p><blockquote>Fundstrat Global Advisors的研究主管Tom Lee是他认识的“十大最佳投资头脑”之一的评级·黄。</blockquote></p><p> But federal regulators may have a lesser opinion. In 2012, Hwang’s former hedge fund, Tiger Asia Management, pleaded guilty and paid more than $60 million in penalties after it was accused of trading on illegal tips about Chinese banks. The SEC banned Hwang from managing money on behalf of clients — essentially booting him from the hedge fund industry. So Hwang opened Archegos, and again, family offices aren’t generally aren’t regulated.</p><p><blockquote>但联邦监管机构的意见可能较少。2012年，黄禹锡的前对冲基金老虎亚洲管理公司(Tiger Asia Management)认罪并支付了超过6000万美元的罚款，此前该公司被指控利用有关中国银行的非法线索进行交易。美国证券交易委员会禁止黄禹锡代表客户管理资金——实质上是将他踢出对冲基金行业。因此，Hwang开设了Archegos，同样，家族理财室通常不受监管。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Yellen on the case</b></p><p><blockquote><b>耶伦谈此案</b></blockquote></p><p> This issue is on Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen’s radar. She said last week that greater oversight of these private corners of the financial industry is needed. The Financial Stability Oversight Council (FSOC), which she oversees, has revived a task force to help agencies better “share data, identify risks and work to strengthen our financial system.”</p><p><blockquote>这个问题引起了财政部长珍妮特·耶伦的关注。她上周表示，需要加强对金融业这些私人角落的监管。她监管的金融稳定监督委员会（FSOC）重新成立了一个工作组，以帮助各机构更好地“共享数据、识别风险并努力加强我们的金融体系”。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> Most financial crises end up with American taxpayers getting stuck with the tab. Gains belong to the risk-takers. But losses — they belong to us. To paraphrase Abe Lincoln, family offices — a multi-trillion dollar industry largely allowed to operate in the shadows in a global financial system that is more intertwined than ever — are of the super-wealthy, by the super-wealthy and for the super-wealthy. And no one else.</p><p><blockquote>大多数金融危机最终都是美国纳税人陷入困境。收益属于冒险者。但是损失——它们属于我们。套用亚伯·林肯（Abe Lincoln）的话，家族办公室——一个价值数万亿美元的行业，在一个比以往任何时候都更加交织在一起的全球金融体系中，很大程度上被允许在阴影中运作——属于超级富豪，由超级富豪经营，为超级富豪服务。没有其他人。</blockquote></p><p> The Archegos collapse may or may not be the beginning of yet another financial crisis. But who’s to say what thousands of other family offices are doing with their trillions, and whether similar problems could blow up?</p><p><blockquote>Archegos的倒闭可能是也可能不是另一场金融危机的开始。但谁能说其他数千家家族理财室正在用他们的数万亿美元做什么，以及类似的问题是否会爆发？</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1603348471595","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Opinion: Financial crises get triggered about every 10 years — Archegos might be right on time<blockquote>观点：金融危机大约每10年就会引发一次——Archegos可能准时出现</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nOpinion: Financial crises get triggered about every 10 years — Archegos might be right on time<blockquote>观点：金融危机大约每10年就会引发一次——Archegos可能准时出现</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">marketwatch</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-04-06 09:30</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>  <b>No one, for now, can say for sure that the so-called family office’s billions in investment losses won’t spread.</b>  Financial crises are never quite the same. During the late 1980s, nearly a third of the nation’s savings and loan associations failed, ending with a taxpayer bailout — in 2021 terms — of about $265 billion.</p><p><blockquote><b>目前，没有人能肯定地说，所谓的家族办公室数十亿美元的投资损失不会蔓延。</b>金融危机从来都不完全一样。20世纪80年代末，美国近三分之一的储蓄和贷款协会倒闭，最终获得了约2650亿美元的纳税人救助（按2021年计算）。</blockquote></p><p> In 1997-1998, financial crises in Asia and Russia led to the near meltdown of the largest hedge fund in the U.S. —Long-Term Capital Management(LTCM). Its reach and operating practices were such that Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan said that when LTCM failed, “he had never seen anything in his lifetime that compared to the terror” he felt. LTCM was deemed “too big to fail,” and he engineered a bailout by 14 major U.S. financial institutions.</p><p><blockquote>1997-1998年，亚洲和俄国的金融危机导致美国最大的对冲基金——长期资本管理公司（LTCM）几近崩溃。它的影响力和运营实践如此之大，以至于美联储主席艾伦·格林斯潘说，当LTCM失败时，“他一生中从未见过任何与他所感受到的恐怖相比的事情”。LTCM被认为“太大而不能倒”，他策划了对14家美国主要金融机构的救助。</blockquote></p><p> Exactly a decade later, too much leverage by some of those very institutions, and the bursting of a U.S. real estate bubble, led to the near collapse of the U.S. financial system. Once again, big banks were deemed too big to fail and taxpayers came to the rescue.</p><p><blockquote>整整十年后，其中一些机构的过度杠杆化，以及美国房地产泡沫的破裂，导致美国金融体系几近崩溃。大银行再一次被认为太大而不能倒，纳税人前来救援。</blockquote></p><p> The trend? Every 10 years or so, and they all look different.&nbsp;Are we in the early stages of a new crisis now, with the blowup at the family office Archegos Capital Management LP?</p><p><blockquote>趋势？每隔10年左右，它们看起来都不一样。随着家族办公室Archegos Capital Management LP的爆发，我们现在是否正处于新危机的早期阶段？</blockquote></p><p> A family office, for the uninitiated, is a private wealth management vehicle for the ultra-wealthy. Here’s what I mean by ultra-wealthy: Consulting firm EY estimates there are some 10,000 family offices globally, but manage, says a separate estimate by market research firm Campden Research, nearly $6 trillion. That $6 trillion is likely far higher now given that it’s based on 2019 data.</p><p><blockquote>对于外行人来说，家族办公室是超级富豪的私人财富管理工具。这就是我所说的超级富豪的意思：咨询公司安永估计全球约有10,000个家族理财室，但市场研究公司Campden Research的另一项估计称，管理家族理财室的规模接近6万亿美元。鉴于这6万亿美元是基于2019年的数据，现在可能要高得多。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Unregulated money managers</b></p><p><blockquote><b>不受监管的基金经理</b></blockquote></p><p> Here’s the potential danger. Family offices generally aren’t regulated. The 1940 Investment Advisers Act says firms with 15 clients or fewer don’t have to register with the Securities and Exchange Commission. What this means is that trillions of dollars are in play and no one can really say who’s running the money, what it’s invested in, how much leverage is being used, and what kind of counterparty risk may exist. (Counterparty risk is the probability that one party involved in a financial transaction could default on a contractual obligation to someone else.)</p><p><blockquote>这是潜在的危险。家族理财室通常不受监管。1940年《投资顾问法》规定，拥有15名或更少客户的公司无需向美国证券交易委员会注册。这意味着数万亿美元正在发挥作用，没有人能真正说出谁在管理这笔钱，它投资于什么，使用了多少杠杆，以及可能存在什么样的交易对手风险。（交易对手风险是指参与金融交易的一方可能违反对另一方的合同义务的概率。）</blockquote></p><p> This appears to be the case with Archegos. The firm bet heavily on certain Chinese stocks, including e-commerce player&nbsp;Vipshop Holdings&nbsp;Ltd.VIPS,-1.19%,U.S.-listed Chinese tutoring company&nbsp;GSX Techedu&nbsp;Inc.GSX,-10.63%and U.S. media companiesViacomCBS&nbsp;Inc.VIAC,-3.90%and&nbsp;Discovery&nbsp;Inc.DISCA,-3.86%,among others. Share prices have tumbled lately, sparking large sales — some $30 billion — by Archegos.</p><p><blockquote>Archegos似乎就是这种情况。该公司大举押注某些中国股票，包括电子商务公司唯品会控股有限公司VIPS，-1.19%，在美国上市的中国家教公司跟谁学GSX，-10.63%，以及美国媒体公司维亚康姆哥伦比亚广播公司VIAC，-3.90%和Discovery Inc.DISCA，-3.86%等。最近股价暴跌，引发Archegos的大量抛售（约300亿美元）。</blockquote></p><p> The problem is that only about a third of that, or $10 billion, was its own money. We now know that Archegos worked with some of the biggest names on Wall Street, including&nbsp;Credit Suisse Group AGCS,+1.59%,UBS Group AGUBS,+1.01%,Goldman Sachs Group Inc.GS,-1.25%,&nbsp;Morgan StanleyMS,-0.28%,Deutsche Bank AGDB,+0.74%and Nomura Holdings Inc.&nbsp;NMR,+1.87%.</p><p><blockquote>问题是，其中只有大约三分之一，即100亿美元，是它自己的钱。我们现在知道Archegos与华尔街的一些大牌合作，包括瑞士信贷集团AGCS，+1.59%，瑞银集团AGUBS，+1.01%，高盛集团Inc.GS，-1.25%，摩根士丹利MS，-0.28%，德意志银行AGDB，+0.74%，野村控股公司NMR，+1.87%。</blockquote></p><p> But since family offices are largely allowed to operate unregulated, who’s to say how much money is really involved here and what the extent of market risk is? My colleague Mark DeCambre&nbsp;reported last week that Archegos’ true exposures to bad trades could actuallybe closer to $100 billion.</p><p><blockquote>但由于家族办公室在很大程度上被允许不受监管地运营，谁能说这里真正涉及多少资金以及市场风险有多大？我的同事Mark DeCambre上周报告称，Archegos对不良交易的真实敞口实际上可能接近1000亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Danger of counterparty risk</b></p><p><blockquote><b>交易对手风险的危险性</b></blockquote></p><p> This is where counterparty risk comes in. As Archegos’ bets went south, the above banks — looking at losses of their own — hit the firm with margin calls. Deutsche quickly dumped about $4 billion in holdings, while Goldman and Morgan Stanley are also said to have unwound their positions, perhaps limiting their downside.</p><p><blockquote>这就是交易对手风险的用武之地。随着Archegos的赌注落空，上述银行考虑到自己的损失，以保证金评级打击了该公司。德意志银行迅速抛售了约40亿美元的持股，而高盛和摩根士丹利据说也已平仓，这或许限制了它们的下跌空间。</blockquote></p><p> So is this a financial crisis? It doesn’t appear to be. Even so, the Securities and Exchange Commission has opened a preliminary investigation into Archegos and its founder, Bill Hwang.</p><p><blockquote>那么这是金融危机吗？似乎不是。即便如此，美国证券交易委员会还是对Archegos及其创始人Bill Hwang展开了初步调查。</blockquote></p><p> One peer, Tom Lee, the research chief of Fundstrat Global Advisors, calls Hwang one of the “top 10 of the best investment minds” he knows.</p><p><blockquote>Fundstrat Global Advisors的研究主管Tom Lee是他认识的“十大最佳投资头脑”之一的评级·黄。</blockquote></p><p> But federal regulators may have a lesser opinion. In 2012, Hwang’s former hedge fund, Tiger Asia Management, pleaded guilty and paid more than $60 million in penalties after it was accused of trading on illegal tips about Chinese banks. The SEC banned Hwang from managing money on behalf of clients — essentially booting him from the hedge fund industry. So Hwang opened Archegos, and again, family offices aren’t generally aren’t regulated.</p><p><blockquote>但联邦监管机构的意见可能较少。2012年，黄禹锡的前对冲基金老虎亚洲管理公司(Tiger Asia Management)认罪并支付了超过6000万美元的罚款，此前该公司被指控利用有关中国银行的非法线索进行交易。美国证券交易委员会禁止黄禹锡代表客户管理资金——实质上是将他踢出对冲基金行业。因此，Hwang开设了Archegos，同样，家族理财室通常不受监管。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Yellen on the case</b></p><p><blockquote><b>耶伦谈此案</b></blockquote></p><p> This issue is on Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen’s radar. She said last week that greater oversight of these private corners of the financial industry is needed. The Financial Stability Oversight Council (FSOC), which she oversees, has revived a task force to help agencies better “share data, identify risks and work to strengthen our financial system.”</p><p><blockquote>这个问题引起了财政部长珍妮特·耶伦的关注。她上周表示，需要加强对金融业这些私人角落的监管。她监管的金融稳定监督委员会（FSOC）重新成立了一个工作组，以帮助各机构更好地“共享数据、识别风险并努力加强我们的金融体系”。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> Most financial crises end up with American taxpayers getting stuck with the tab. Gains belong to the risk-takers. But losses — they belong to us. To paraphrase Abe Lincoln, family offices — a multi-trillion dollar industry largely allowed to operate in the shadows in a global financial system that is more intertwined than ever — are of the super-wealthy, by the super-wealthy and for the super-wealthy. And no one else.</p><p><blockquote>大多数金融危机最终都是美国纳税人陷入困境。收益属于冒险者。但是损失——它们属于我们。套用亚伯·林肯（Abe Lincoln）的话，家族办公室——一个价值数万亿美元的行业，在一个比以往任何时候都更加交织在一起的全球金融体系中，很大程度上被允许在阴影中运作——属于超级富豪，由超级富豪经营，为超级富豪服务。没有其他人。</blockquote></p><p> The Archegos collapse may or may not be the beginning of yet another financial crisis. But who’s to say what thousands of other family offices are doing with their trillions, and whether similar problems could blow up?</p><p><blockquote>Archegos的倒闭可能是也可能不是另一场金融危机的开始。但谁能说其他数千家家族理财室正在用他们的数万亿美元做什么，以及类似的问题是否会爆发？</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/financial-crises-happen-about-every-10-years-which-makes-the-archegos-meltdown-unnerving-11617634942?mod=home-page\">marketwatch</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","SPY":"标普500ETF",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/financial-crises-happen-about-every-10-years-which-makes-the-archegos-meltdown-unnerving-11617634942?mod=home-page","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1101907559","content_text":"No one, for now, can say for sure that the so-called family office’s billions in investment losses won’t spread.\n\nFinancial crises are never quite the same. During the late 1980s, nearly a third of the nation’s savings and loan associations failed, ending with a taxpayer bailout — in 2021 terms — of about $265 billion.\nIn 1997-1998, financial crises in Asia and Russia led to the near meltdown of the largest hedge fund in the U.S. —Long-Term Capital Management(LTCM). Its reach and operating practices were such that Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan said that when LTCM failed, “he had never seen anything in his lifetime that compared to the terror” he felt. LTCM was deemed “too big to fail,” and he engineered a bailout by 14 major U.S. financial institutions.\nExactly a decade later, too much leverage by some of those very institutions, and the bursting of a U.S. real estate bubble, led to the near collapse of the U.S. financial system. Once again, big banks were deemed too big to fail and taxpayers came to the rescue.\nThe trend? Every 10 years or so, and they all look different. Are we in the early stages of a new crisis now, with the blowup at the family office Archegos Capital Management LP?\nA family office, for the uninitiated, is a private wealth management vehicle for the ultra-wealthy. Here’s what I mean by ultra-wealthy: Consulting firm EY estimates there are some 10,000 family offices globally, but manage, says a separate estimate by market research firm Campden Research, nearly $6 trillion. That $6 trillion is likely far higher now given that it’s based on 2019 data.\nUnregulated money managers\nHere’s the potential danger. Family offices generally aren’t regulated. The 1940 Investment Advisers Act says firms with 15 clients or fewer don’t have to register with the Securities and Exchange Commission. What this means is that trillions of dollars are in play and no one can really say who’s running the money, what it’s invested in, how much leverage is being used, and what kind of counterparty risk may exist. (Counterparty risk is the probability that one party involved in a financial transaction could default on a contractual obligation to someone else.)\nThis appears to be the case with Archegos. The firm bet heavily on certain Chinese stocks, including e-commerce player Vipshop Holdings Ltd.VIPS,-1.19%,U.S.-listed Chinese tutoring company GSX Techedu Inc.GSX,-10.63%and U.S. media companiesViacomCBS Inc.VIAC,-3.90%and Discovery Inc.DISCA,-3.86%,among others. Share prices have tumbled lately, sparking large sales — some $30 billion — by Archegos.\nThe problem is that only about a third of that, or $10 billion, was its own money. We now know that Archegos worked with some of the biggest names on Wall Street, including Credit Suisse Group AGCS,+1.59%,UBS Group AGUBS,+1.01%,Goldman Sachs Group Inc.GS,-1.25%, Morgan StanleyMS,-0.28%,Deutsche Bank AGDB,+0.74%and Nomura Holdings Inc. NMR,+1.87%.\nBut since family offices are largely allowed to operate unregulated, who’s to say how much money is really involved here and what the extent of market risk is? My colleague Mark DeCambre reported last week that Archegos’ true exposures to bad trades could actuallybe closer to $100 billion.\nDanger of counterparty risk\nThis is where counterparty risk comes in. As Archegos’ bets went south, the above banks — looking at losses of their own — hit the firm with margin calls. Deutsche quickly dumped about $4 billion in holdings, while Goldman and Morgan Stanley are also said to have unwound their positions, perhaps limiting their downside.\nSo is this a financial crisis? It doesn’t appear to be. Even so, the Securities and Exchange Commission has opened a preliminary investigation into Archegos and its founder, Bill Hwang.\nOne peer, Tom Lee, the research chief of Fundstrat Global Advisors, calls Hwang one of the “top 10 of the best investment minds” he knows.\nBut federal regulators may have a lesser opinion. In 2012, Hwang’s former hedge fund, Tiger Asia Management, pleaded guilty and paid more than $60 million in penalties after it was accused of trading on illegal tips about Chinese banks. The SEC banned Hwang from managing money on behalf of clients — essentially booting him from the hedge fund industry. So Hwang opened Archegos, and again, family offices aren’t generally aren’t regulated.\nYellen on the case\nThis issue is on Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen’s radar. She said last week that greater oversight of these private corners of the financial industry is needed. The Financial Stability Oversight Council (FSOC), which she oversees, has revived a task force to help agencies better “share data, identify risks and work to strengthen our financial system.”\nMost financial crises end up with American taxpayers getting stuck with the tab. Gains belong to the risk-takers. But losses — they belong to us. To paraphrase Abe Lincoln, family offices — a multi-trillion dollar industry largely allowed to operate in the shadows in a global financial system that is more intertwined than ever — are of the super-wealthy, by the super-wealthy and for the super-wealthy. And no one else.\nThe Archegos collapse may or may not be the beginning of yet another financial crisis. But who’s to say what thousands of other family offices are doing with their trillions, and whether similar problems could blow up?","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".IXIC":0.9,".DJI":0.9,"SPY":0.9,".SPX":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2148,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":352760036,"gmtCreate":1617005672925,"gmtModify":1634523188380,"author":{"id":"3568069882275792","authorId":"3568069882275792","name":"NoviceK","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/717a700218452fb1ccf7954943014836","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3568069882275792","authorIdStr":"3568069882275792"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Well most stocks are going down anyway so whocares&nbsp;","listText":"Well most stocks are going down anyway so whocares&nbsp;","text":"Well most stocks are going down anyway so whocares","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/352760036","repostId":"1131499409","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1134,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":365642032,"gmtCreate":1614738951926,"gmtModify":1703480503157,"author":{"id":"3568069882275792","authorId":"3568069882275792","name":"NoviceK","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/717a700218452fb1ccf7954943014836","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3568069882275792","authorIdStr":"3568069882275792"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Quest time","listText":"Quest time","text":"Quest time","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/365642032","repostId":"365646191","repostType":1,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":491,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}