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Altria Q3 Earnings: Why It Just Became My Second-Largest Holding
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22:00","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Altria Q3 Earnings: Why It Just Became My Second-Largest Holding","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2378522603","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Altria's Q3 earnings disappointed investors, causing the stock to fall over 7% and hit a new 52-week low.The company missed on both earnings per share and revenue, but still expects growth in EPS to b","content":"<html><body><ul><li>Altria's Q3 earnings disappointed investors, causing the stock to fall over 7% and hit a new 52-week low.</li><li>The company missed on both earnings per share and revenue, but still expects growth in EPS to be 1.5% higher than in 2022.</li><li>Despite the decline in smokeable product revenue, the company has positive growth in the oral tobacco segment and continues to pay large dividends.</li><li>Adult vapers have also continued to rise, which will likely positively affect the business as they continue to distribute NJOY ACE.</li><li>A recent study shows California's flavor ban cost the state more than $1 billion annually in cigarette excise tax revenues.</li></ul><p><figure><picture> <img height=\"2195px\" loading=\"lazy\" sizes=\"(max-width: 768px) calc(100vw - 36px), (max-width: 1024px) calc(100vw - 132px), (max-width: 1200px) calc(66.6vw - 72px), 600px\" src=\"https://static.seekingalpha.com/cdn/s3/uploads/getty_images/1755027/image_1755027.jpg?io=getty-c-w750\" srcset=\"https://static.seekingalpha.com/cdn/s3/uploads/getty_images/1755027/image_1755027.jpg?io=getty-c-w1536 1536w, https://static.seekingalpha.com/cdn/s3/uploads/getty_images/1755027/image_1755027.jpg?io=getty-c-w1280 1280w, https://static.seekingalpha.com/cdn/s3/uploads/getty_images/1755027/image_1755027.jpg?io=getty-c-w1080 1080w, https://static.seekingalpha.com/cdn/s3/uploads/getty_images/1755027/image_1755027.jpg?io=getty-c-w750 750w, https://static.seekingalpha.com/cdn/s3/uploads/getty_images/1755027/image_1755027.jpg?io=getty-c-w640 640w, https://static.seekingalpha.com/cdn/s3/uploads/getty_images/1755027/image_1755027.jpg?io=getty-c-w480 480w, https://static.seekingalpha.com/cdn/s3/uploads/getty_images/1755027/image_1755027.jpg?io=getty-c-w320 320w, https://static.seekingalpha.com/cdn/s3/uploads/getty_images/1755027/image_1755027.jpg?io=getty-c-w240 240w\" width=\"3000px\"/> </picture><figcaption> <p>Mario Tama</p></figcaption></figure></p> <h2>Introduction</h2> <p>Altria (<span>NYSE:MO</span>) recently reported its Q3 earnings and let's just say investors were not happy. Since then, the stock has fallen over 7% and now trades below $40 and hit a new 52-week low of $39.06. The stock has not seen<span> a price this low since November 20th of 2020 when it opened at $39.84 and closed below $40. Since then they have traded around or above $40. Taking advantage of the dip, I quickly bought more shares as I believe the negative sentiment to be short-lived and expect the stock to quickly get back above $40. Accumulating more shares made MO my second largest holding currently in my portfolio. And in this article I will tell you why I think MO presents a perfect opportunity to buy more shares to collect those huge dividends.</span></p> <h2>Earnings<span> Disappointment</span> </h2> <p>Let's jump right into it. I last covered the stock back in August where I talked about the NJOY acquisition. Since then investors have been waiting for some good news, especially after the JUUL deal went sour. Fast forward to now. Altria reported its Q3 earnings before the opening bell on Thursday, October 26th missing on both the top and bottom line. MO reported earnings per share of $1.28, missing analysts' estimates by $0.02. They also missed on revenue by $150 million, coming in at $5.28 billion. With so much uncertainty going on right now, and investors waiting patiently for the company to report some good news with the recent acquisition of NJOY, they go and miss on both. This is what sent the stock tumbling to a new 52-week low. And to top it off, management narrowed its full-year guidance and now expects it to be between $4.91 to $4.98, down from the $4.89 to $5.03 prior. But this narrowed guidance still represents growth of nearly 1.5% from full-year EPS of $4.84 in 2022.</p> <p><figure><img height=\"366\" loading=\"lazy\" src=\"https://static.seekingalpha.com/uploads/2023/10/26/saupload_a8e63ec1f4127cdadbb46bc0932f35e2.png\" width=\"635\"/><figcaption>Data by YCharts</figcaption></figure></p> <p>I understand that as an investor this is not great news to hear or see. But as I've mentioned previously, companies will have some great quarters, good quarters, and not so good ones. Not anything to get super excited about but growth is still growth. It's just the nature of the business. Throw in high treasury rates, and investors are more inclined to say \"forget this,\" and go buy 90-day T-Bills or a CD for that matter. For those with a short-term mindset for investing, I say go ahead and switch your strategy. Again, if you have a longer outlook, you understand short-term volatility creates long-term opportunities. And I took advantage and bought more, bringing MO to my 2nd largest holding. Collecting nearly $1 a share per quarter in dividends while I wait for the price to recover? That's a no-brainer if you ask me.</p> <p>Now some might say, \"the price may never recover\" and I say to that, \"it may not.\" But as a buy-and-hold investor, I know things take time. And investing takes patience. I can honestly say out of all the things I've learned investing, patience is the one thing I learned the most. If you can master this and control your emotions, you will likely become a successful investor in my view. Peter Lynch said, \"The most important organ is your stomach not your brain.\"</p> <p>Trust me. Take it from someone who started investing during the Great Financial Crisis. I didn't know what I was doing back then, but during times of uncertainty, it's very easy for stocks to move up or down. Anything that can be considered slightly positive or negative can move the stock in either direction.</p> <h2>The Smokeable Segment Decline</h2> <p>Smokeable products revenue fell 5.3%. This was due to lower shipment volume and higher promotional investments. The segment also reported domestic cigarette volumes declined 11.6% in the third quarter and 10.6% in the first 9 months. At the industry level this was less at 8% in Q3 and in the first nine months. With the acquisition of NJOY management planned to accelerate its adoption into the business model. Well that didn't happen.</p> <p>Management's goal was to distribute NJOY to 43k stores by this quarter. Instead they grew distribution to 42k, 1k less than their target. But as seen below, ACE is now distributed in all the top-25 convenience store chains by e-vapor volume. So although they didn't hit the target, this is still impressive. And the end-of-year target of 70k stores is still in play. It's important to remember prior to the quarter, NJOY had a very small footprint in the retail space. After, ACE is expected to represent nearly 70% of e-vapor volume and 55% of cigarette volume sold in the US multi-outlet and convenience store channel.</p> <p><figure contenteditable=\"false\"><span><img contenteditable=\"false\" loading=\"lazy\" src=\"https://static.seekingalpha.com/uploads/2023/10/26/54869375-16983462490396152.jpg\"/></span><figcaption><p><span>Altria investor presentation</span></p></figcaption></figure></p> <p>So people will say, \"They missed the target.\" Yes, they did but the product now has more visibility and product fixture space which means more eyes, likely more sales. NJOY is not some acquisition the company made years ago that we're still waiting to take effect in the business. This was recent and these take time. Some acquisitions are immediately accretive for businesses, but as investors it's important not to focus on the negative in my opinion. Instead of \"they missed the target\" say, \"But now they have more visibility\" which means potentially more revenue and growth. And with only one quarter of full ownership, the NJOY acquisition is still in its initial stages.</p> <h2>Focus On The Positives</h2> <p>It's no secret traditional smoking has been on the decline in the U.S. for years. But what about oral tobacco growth? In the last two years this has grown from 3% to 5% in the nine months ended. And <em>on! </em>shipment volume has increased by nearly 8 million, or 36.7% year-over-year. The nicotine pouch category grew 5% in total U.S. tobacco volumes over six months. Helix also improved profitability and <em>on!</em> plus began its test launch in Sweden, which is currently one of the largest modern oral tobacco markets globally.</p> <p>Additionally, cigarette volume declines can be attributed to increased gas prices. This was especially apparent in Q1 to Q2 of 2022 when gas prices surged. Although nicotine is addicting, high gas prices affect consumption. From a personal experience of living in California, I can tell you that there were some places where gas was upwards of $7 a gallon. Depending on where you live some may have seen higher.</p> <p><figure contenteditable=\"false\"><span><img contenteditable=\"false\" loading=\"lazy\" src=\"https://static.seekingalpha.com/uploads/2023/10/26/54869375-16983470408531737.jpg\"/></span><figcaption><p><span>MO investor presentation</span></p></figcaption></figure></p> <p>Another positive which, I assume most investors are happy about, is the company conducted their 58th dividend increase in the last 54 years to $0.98 a share. Furthermore, they repurchased a total of 5.9 million shares for $260 million during the quarter, returning more than $5.7 billion through dividends and repurchases. They currently have $268 million left under the current contract which management expects to complete by the end of this year. And I expect more shares to be repurchased in Q4 as the price has dropped since earnings, especially if the price stays suppressed.</p> <p>Another positive factor for the company is the recent rise in adult vapers in the past 30 days. And as NJOY gets distributed to more convenience store channels, I see this as a huge benefit for Altria. Vaping is considered to be a healthier alternative to traditional smoking and consumers are starting to become more health conscious. This is apparent by the recent popularity of weight-loss drugs. Since 2014 adults who smoke have risen over 156%, or nearly 7 million. Vapers who don't smoke experienced a lesser rise at 22.2%, or 3 million.</p> <p><figure contenteditable=\"false\"><span><img contenteditable=\"false\" loading=\"lazy\" src=\"https://static.seekingalpha.com/uploads/2023/10/26/54869375-1698372712901358.jpg\"/></span><figcaption><p><span>MO investor presentation</span></p></figcaption></figure></p> <h2>Risks</h2> <p>I expect cigarette volumes to continue to decline due to the current macro environment and the growth of illegal flavored disposable e-vapor products. Management expects this contributed to declines in the cigarette industry by 1.5% to 2.5% percent in the last 12 months. Another risk the company faces is if they fail to reach their 70k target of stores for ACE by year-end. Even though they missed the mark this quarter by 1k stores, anything considered negative by investors will likely drive the price down even further. Another factor is the state of California's flavor ban. A study recently found overwhelming evidence of a large, illicit marketplace of flavored, e-vapor & menthol cigarette products in the state. This is thought to cost the state a loss of more than $1 billion annually in cigarette excise tax revenues. I believe Altria will fight to make these products legal but until then it will continue to affect revenues going forward.</p> <p>Furthermore, if we enter into a recession, MO may experience a decline in sales as consumers look for discounted cigarette brands from competition as spending becomes tighter. Stricter tobacco laws & regulations also pose a serious risk for tobacco companies as well. Although MO pays a large dividend, investors should be cautious as these threats could seriously impact their finances going forward. But for now I think Altria is safe but will continue to face scrutiny from investors for the foreseeable future.</p> <h2>Conclusion</h2> <div></div> <p>Altria is very popular amongst investors as they have a long track record of paying out large dividends. With the recent earnings disappointment, this has caused negative sentiment with investors, sending the price tumbling to new a 52-week low. MO is considered a risky investment and one that should always be watched closely. But I still have faith in the company, the recent NJOY acquisition, and expect them to continue expanding. Furthermore, the oral tobacco segment continues to do well but is often overshadowed by the declines in traditional smoking. The company has only one full quarter with the NJOY acquisition and I think this will take time to become accretive and requires patience from investors. For now, MO remains my second largest holding and I think due to the price decline, those with a long-term outlook are getting a great margin of safety.</p></body></html>","source":"seekingalpha","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Altria Q3 Earnings: Why It Just Became My Second-Largest Holding</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nAltria Q3 Earnings: Why It Just Became My Second-Largest Holding\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2023-10-28 22:00 GMT+8 <a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4644635-altria-q3-why-they-just-became-my-second-largest-holding><strong>seekingalpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Altria's Q3 earnings disappointed investors, causing the stock to fall over 7% and hit a new 52-week low.The company missed on both earnings per share and revenue, but still expects growth in EPS to ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4644635-altria-q3-why-they-just-became-my-second-largest-holding\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.seekingalpha.com/cdn/s3/uploads/getty_images/1755027/image_1755027.jpg","relate_stocks":{"MO":"奥驰亚"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4644635-altria-q3-why-they-just-became-my-second-largest-holding","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/5a36db9d73b4222bc376d24ccc48c8a4","article_id":"2378522603","content_text":"Altria's Q3 earnings disappointed investors, causing the stock to fall over 7% and hit a new 52-week low.The company missed on both earnings per share and revenue, but still expects growth in EPS to be 1.5% higher than in 2022.Despite the decline in smokeable product revenue, the company has positive growth in the oral tobacco segment and continues to pay large dividends.Adult vapers have also continued to rise, which will likely positively affect the business as they continue to distribute NJOY ACE.A recent study shows California's flavor ban cost the state more than $1 billion annually in cigarette excise tax revenues. Mario Tama Introduction Altria (NYSE:MO) recently reported its Q3 earnings and let's just say investors were not happy. Since then, the stock has fallen over 7% and now trades below $40 and hit a new 52-week low of $39.06. The stock has not seen a price this low since November 20th of 2020 when it opened at $39.84 and closed below $40. Since then they have traded around or above $40. Taking advantage of the dip, I quickly bought more shares as I believe the negative sentiment to be short-lived and expect the stock to quickly get back above $40. Accumulating more shares made MO my second largest holding currently in my portfolio. And in this article I will tell you why I think MO presents a perfect opportunity to buy more shares to collect those huge dividends. Earnings Disappointment Let's jump right into it. I last covered the stock back in August where I talked about the NJOY acquisition. Since then investors have been waiting for some good news, especially after the JUUL deal went sour. Fast forward to now. Altria reported its Q3 earnings before the opening bell on Thursday, October 26th missing on both the top and bottom line. MO reported earnings per share of $1.28, missing analysts' estimates by $0.02. They also missed on revenue by $150 million, coming in at $5.28 billion. With so much uncertainty going on right now, and investors waiting patiently for the company to report some good news with the recent acquisition of NJOY, they go and miss on both. This is what sent the stock tumbling to a new 52-week low. And to top it off, management narrowed its full-year guidance and now expects it to be between $4.91 to $4.98, down from the $4.89 to $5.03 prior. But this narrowed guidance still represents growth of nearly 1.5% from full-year EPS of $4.84 in 2022. Data by YCharts I understand that as an investor this is not great news to hear or see. But as I've mentioned previously, companies will have some great quarters, good quarters, and not so good ones. Not anything to get super excited about but growth is still growth. It's just the nature of the business. Throw in high treasury rates, and investors are more inclined to say \"forget this,\" and go buy 90-day T-Bills or a CD for that matter. For those with a short-term mindset for investing, I say go ahead and switch your strategy. Again, if you have a longer outlook, you understand short-term volatility creates long-term opportunities. And I took advantage and bought more, bringing MO to my 2nd largest holding. Collecting nearly $1 a share per quarter in dividends while I wait for the price to recover? That's a no-brainer if you ask me. Now some might say, \"the price may never recover\" and I say to that, \"it may not.\" But as a buy-and-hold investor, I know things take time. And investing takes patience. I can honestly say out of all the things I've learned investing, patience is the one thing I learned the most. If you can master this and control your emotions, you will likely become a successful investor in my view. Peter Lynch said, \"The most important organ is your stomach not your brain.\" Trust me. Take it from someone who started investing during the Great Financial Crisis. I didn't know what I was doing back then, but during times of uncertainty, it's very easy for stocks to move up or down. Anything that can be considered slightly positive or negative can move the stock in either direction. The Smokeable Segment Decline Smokeable products revenue fell 5.3%. This was due to lower shipment volume and higher promotional investments. The segment also reported domestic cigarette volumes declined 11.6% in the third quarter and 10.6% in the first 9 months. At the industry level this was less at 8% in Q3 and in the first nine months. With the acquisition of NJOY management planned to accelerate its adoption into the business model. Well that didn't happen. Management's goal was to distribute NJOY to 43k stores by this quarter. Instead they grew distribution to 42k, 1k less than their target. But as seen below, ACE is now distributed in all the top-25 convenience store chains by e-vapor volume. So although they didn't hit the target, this is still impressive. And the end-of-year target of 70k stores is still in play. It's important to remember prior to the quarter, NJOY had a very small footprint in the retail space. After, ACE is expected to represent nearly 70% of e-vapor volume and 55% of cigarette volume sold in the US multi-outlet and convenience store channel. Altria investor presentation So people will say, \"They missed the target.\" Yes, they did but the product now has more visibility and product fixture space which means more eyes, likely more sales. NJOY is not some acquisition the company made years ago that we're still waiting to take effect in the business. This was recent and these take time. Some acquisitions are immediately accretive for businesses, but as investors it's important not to focus on the negative in my opinion. Instead of \"they missed the target\" say, \"But now they have more visibility\" which means potentially more revenue and growth. And with only one quarter of full ownership, the NJOY acquisition is still in its initial stages. Focus On The Positives It's no secret traditional smoking has been on the decline in the U.S. for years. But what about oral tobacco growth? In the last two years this has grown from 3% to 5% in the nine months ended. And on! shipment volume has increased by nearly 8 million, or 36.7% year-over-year. The nicotine pouch category grew 5% in total U.S. tobacco volumes over six months. Helix also improved profitability and on! plus began its test launch in Sweden, which is currently one of the largest modern oral tobacco markets globally. Additionally, cigarette volume declines can be attributed to increased gas prices. This was especially apparent in Q1 to Q2 of 2022 when gas prices surged. Although nicotine is addicting, high gas prices affect consumption. From a personal experience of living in California, I can tell you that there were some places where gas was upwards of $7 a gallon. Depending on where you live some may have seen higher. MO investor presentation Another positive which, I assume most investors are happy about, is the company conducted their 58th dividend increase in the last 54 years to $0.98 a share. Furthermore, they repurchased a total of 5.9 million shares for $260 million during the quarter, returning more than $5.7 billion through dividends and repurchases. They currently have $268 million left under the current contract which management expects to complete by the end of this year. And I expect more shares to be repurchased in Q4 as the price has dropped since earnings, especially if the price stays suppressed. Another positive factor for the company is the recent rise in adult vapers in the past 30 days. And as NJOY gets distributed to more convenience store channels, I see this as a huge benefit for Altria. Vaping is considered to be a healthier alternative to traditional smoking and consumers are starting to become more health conscious. This is apparent by the recent popularity of weight-loss drugs. Since 2014 adults who smoke have risen over 156%, or nearly 7 million. Vapers who don't smoke experienced a lesser rise at 22.2%, or 3 million. MO investor presentation Risks I expect cigarette volumes to continue to decline due to the current macro environment and the growth of illegal flavored disposable e-vapor products. Management expects this contributed to declines in the cigarette industry by 1.5% to 2.5% percent in the last 12 months. Another risk the company faces is if they fail to reach their 70k target of stores for ACE by year-end. Even though they missed the mark this quarter by 1k stores, anything considered negative by investors will likely drive the price down even further. Another factor is the state of California's flavor ban. A study recently found overwhelming evidence of a large, illicit marketplace of flavored, e-vapor & menthol cigarette products in the state. This is thought to cost the state a loss of more than $1 billion annually in cigarette excise tax revenues. I believe Altria will fight to make these products legal but until then it will continue to affect revenues going forward. Furthermore, if we enter into a recession, MO may experience a decline in sales as consumers look for discounted cigarette brands from competition as spending becomes tighter. Stricter tobacco laws & regulations also pose a serious risk for tobacco companies as well. Although MO pays a large dividend, investors should be cautious as these threats could seriously impact their finances going forward. But for now I think Altria is safe but will continue to face scrutiny from investors for the foreseeable future. Conclusion Altria is very popular amongst investors as they have a long track record of paying out large dividends. With the recent earnings disappointment, this has caused negative sentiment with investors, sending the price tumbling to new a 52-week low. MO is considered a risky investment and one that should always be watched closely. But I still have faith in the company, the recent NJOY acquisition, and expect them to continue expanding. Furthermore, the oral tobacco segment continues to do well but is often overshadowed by the declines in traditional smoking. The company has only one full quarter with the NJOY acquisition and I think this will take time to become accretive and requires patience from investors. For now, MO remains my second largest holding and I think due to the price decline, those with a long-term outlook are getting a great margin of safety.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":868,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":199016291983592,"gmtCreate":1689611781741,"gmtModify":1689615703286,"author":{"id":"3567869011586257","authorId":"3567869011586257","name":"大成发发发","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0e9e702252efc7f1819af1d6c9c25cc2","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3567869011586257","authorIdStr":"3567869011586257"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看","listText":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看","text":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/199016291983592","repostId":"196385354997816","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":196385354997816,"gmtCreate":1688977315273,"gmtModify":1688977363132,"author":{"id":"36990708048000","authorId":"36990708048000","name":"好文","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/30ffc647410e858943769a0c5937ac1e","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"36990708048000","authorIdStr":"36990708048000"},"themes":[],"title":"瑞幸咖啡，上岸了吗？","htmlText":"三年回归正轨，再陷低价泥潭，下沉市场遇敌。中国咖啡江湖上演着一场翻盘大战。“谁还记得速溶咖啡时代的雀巢、麦斯威尔？”咖啡从业者关丛说，现磨咖啡时代，本土品牌的风头完全盖过了国外品牌。一说起咖啡，过去很多人恐怕第一时间想到的是 <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SBUX\">$星巴克(SBUX)$</a> ，现在可能换成了 <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LKNCY\">$瑞幸咖啡(LKNCY)$</a> ，“也可能是Nowwa（挪瓦）咖啡或者Manner”，关丛更愿意把中国咖啡市场的变化，称之为咖啡产业大翻盘。全球咖啡连锁巨头星巴克，一直被咖啡行业当作一个衡量标准。把时间拉回到1999年，星巴克在北京国贸开出中国内地第一家门店，直到18年后的2017年10月，瑞幸的第一家店才起步，位于5公里以外的北京银河SOHO。尽管公众对瑞幸的评价毁誉参半，但它是咖啡江湖上一个值得研究的样本。从开出第一家门店到上市只用了19个月，它创造了最快的IPO神话；从纳斯达克圆梦到被迫退市只用了13个月，它自曝财务造假22亿，引发商业史上惊天丑闻；如今，退市三年后，它在今年6月冲到了一万家门店，比入华24年的星巴克多了近四千家。伴随而来的是，人们对瑞幸起死回生过程中待解的谜题。旧瑞幸靠着烧钱补贴高歌猛进，一朝爆雷，公司几乎走向全面崩盘，但过去三年多，它是怎么冲到上万家店的？瑞幸进入万店时代，外界对此的一种解读是：早年瑞幸“碰瓷”星巴克，现在吹过的牛皮终于实现了。曾经以挑战者姿态出道的瑞幸，真的超越星巴克了吗？危机爆发后，瑞幸的盈利能力反而逐渐向好，2022年跻身百亿营收俱乐部，目前在粉单市场（从纳斯达克、纽交所退市的公司，可去粉单市场交易）的股价为27美元，相比当年在纳斯达克17美元的发行价，超出59%。今天的瑞幸，“上岸”了吗？从这些疑问入手，本","listText":"三年回归正轨，再陷低价泥潭，下沉市场遇敌。中国咖啡江湖上演着一场翻盘大战。“谁还记得速溶咖啡时代的雀巢、麦斯威尔？”咖啡从业者关丛说，现磨咖啡时代，本土品牌的风头完全盖过了国外品牌。一说起咖啡，过去很多人恐怕第一时间想到的是 <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SBUX\">$星巴克(SBUX)$</a> ，现在可能换成了 <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LKNCY\">$瑞幸咖啡(LKNCY)$</a> ，“也可能是Nowwa（挪瓦）咖啡或者Manner”，关丛更愿意把中国咖啡市场的变化，称之为咖啡产业大翻盘。全球咖啡连锁巨头星巴克，一直被咖啡行业当作一个衡量标准。把时间拉回到1999年，星巴克在北京国贸开出中国内地第一家门店，直到18年后的2017年10月，瑞幸的第一家店才起步，位于5公里以外的北京银河SOHO。尽管公众对瑞幸的评价毁誉参半，但它是咖啡江湖上一个值得研究的样本。从开出第一家门店到上市只用了19个月，它创造了最快的IPO神话；从纳斯达克圆梦到被迫退市只用了13个月，它自曝财务造假22亿，引发商业史上惊天丑闻；如今，退市三年后，它在今年6月冲到了一万家门店，比入华24年的星巴克多了近四千家。伴随而来的是，人们对瑞幸起死回生过程中待解的谜题。旧瑞幸靠着烧钱补贴高歌猛进，一朝爆雷，公司几乎走向全面崩盘，但过去三年多，它是怎么冲到上万家店的？瑞幸进入万店时代，外界对此的一种解读是：早年瑞幸“碰瓷”星巴克，现在吹过的牛皮终于实现了。曾经以挑战者姿态出道的瑞幸，真的超越星巴克了吗？危机爆发后，瑞幸的盈利能力反而逐渐向好，2022年跻身百亿营收俱乐部，目前在粉单市场（从纳斯达克、纽交所退市的公司，可去粉单市场交易）的股价为27美元，相比当年在纳斯达克17美元的发行价，超出59%。今天的瑞幸，“上岸”了吗？从这些疑问入手，本","text":"三年回归正轨，再陷低价泥潭，下沉市场遇敌。中国咖啡江湖上演着一场翻盘大战。“谁还记得速溶咖啡时代的雀巢、麦斯威尔？”咖啡从业者关丛说，现磨咖啡时代，本土品牌的风头完全盖过了国外品牌。一说起咖啡，过去很多人恐怕第一时间想到的是 $星巴克(SBUX)$ ，现在可能换成了 $瑞幸咖啡(LKNCY)$ ，“也可能是Nowwa（挪瓦）咖啡或者Manner”，关丛更愿意把中国咖啡市场的变化，称之为咖啡产业大翻盘。全球咖啡连锁巨头星巴克，一直被咖啡行业当作一个衡量标准。把时间拉回到1999年，星巴克在北京国贸开出中国内地第一家门店，直到18年后的2017年10月，瑞幸的第一家店才起步，位于5公里以外的北京银河SOHO。尽管公众对瑞幸的评价毁誉参半，但它是咖啡江湖上一个值得研究的样本。从开出第一家门店到上市只用了19个月，它创造了最快的IPO神话；从纳斯达克圆梦到被迫退市只用了13个月，它自曝财务造假22亿，引发商业史上惊天丑闻；如今，退市三年后，它在今年6月冲到了一万家门店，比入华24年的星巴克多了近四千家。伴随而来的是，人们对瑞幸起死回生过程中待解的谜题。旧瑞幸靠着烧钱补贴高歌猛进，一朝爆雷，公司几乎走向全面崩盘，但过去三年多，它是怎么冲到上万家店的？瑞幸进入万店时代，外界对此的一种解读是：早年瑞幸“碰瓷”星巴克，现在吹过的牛皮终于实现了。曾经以挑战者姿态出道的瑞幸，真的超越星巴克了吗？危机爆发后，瑞幸的盈利能力反而逐渐向好，2022年跻身百亿营收俱乐部，目前在粉单市场（从纳斯达克、纽交所退市的公司，可去粉单市场交易）的股价为27美元，相比当年在纳斯达克17美元的发行价，超出59%。今天的瑞幸，“上岸”了吗？从这些疑问入手，本","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e39f14c69b340665648f7ccc31d16b7b","width":"1080","height":"983"},{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/29859768b05a41acc6a4a7727310d8c0","width":"1080","height":"534"},{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/105cdde3b4406c37ff0687e754579c4e","width":"1080","height":"435"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":2,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/196385354997816","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":7,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1068,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":192665460518976,"gmtCreate":1688079383379,"gmtModify":1688088721266,"author":{"id":"3567869011586257","authorId":"3567869011586257","name":"大成发发发","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0e9e702252efc7f1819af1d6c9c25cc2","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3567869011586257","authorIdStr":"3567869011586257"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看","listText":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看","text":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/192665460518976","repostId":"2347638733","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2347638733","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1688036014,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2347638733?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2023-06-29 18:53","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"石油巨头“前途未卜”！巴菲特却又一次果断出手","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2347638733","media":"金十数据","summary":"石油行业处于不稳定状态，让我们静观其变。","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>当地时间周三晚间，美国证交会（SEC）文件显示，最近几天，<strong>巴菲特旗下<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BRK.A\">伯克希尔</a>·哈撒韦公司购买了210万股<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/OXY\">西方石油</a>公司的股票，持股比例提高至25.1%。</strong></p><p>该公司目前合计持有2.241亿股西方石油股票，按周三收盘价计算，这一头寸价值约129亿美元。</p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a390271dbc4af0a34aa767369e200084\" tg-width=\"560\" tg-height=\"240\"/></p><p>伯克希尔今年仍在稳步增持西方石油的股票，最近的一笔股票购买平均支付了每股略高于57美元的价格。但在5月份的伯克希尔年度会议上，巴菲特表示，他不会寻求拥有对西方石油公司的控制权。</p><p>巴菲特当时表示，他对西方石油首席执行官维琪·霍鲁布（Vicki Hollub）评价很高，她正在推行能源行业最雄心勃勃、最具创新性的碳捕获战略之一。《巴伦周刊》最近将霍鲁布列入2023年最佳首席执行官名单。</p><p>SEC文件还指出，西方石油最近以10%的溢价赎回了伯克希尔持有的8%优先股，赎回成本约为1.6亿美元。伯克希尔目前还持有价值约92亿美元的西方石油优先股。今年迄今，西方石油已经回购8亿美元的优先股。</p><p>2019年，西方石油为收购另一家石油阿纳达科，以发行优先股的形式向伯克希尔借款，并以普通股的形式偿还每次的利息。这使得伯克希尔拥有了西方石油价值100亿美元的优先股，以及一小部分普通股。 除此之外，伯克希尔还拥有近8400万份认股权证，可以以略低于每股60美元的价格购买这家能源公司的普通股。</p><p>巴菲特喜欢以每股不到60美元的价格购买西方石油公司的普通股，如今油价的下跌正好使其能够以自身认为有吸引力的价格购买更多股票。今年早些时候，当油价较高时，西方石油公司的股价约为每股75美元。</p><p>能源高管对2050年全球石油需求的预测分歧明显</p><p>然而，随着能源转型的推进，投资者对于巴菲特大举押注能源公司的举措保持谨慎。</p><p>在能源行业，<strong>对2050年石油需求量的估计分歧显著，悲观者预计届时石油需求将较现在减少80%，乐观者认为一切照常。</strong>投资者面临着一项艰巨的任务，即押注哪些公司站在了该行业几十年来最重要趋势的正确一边。</p><p>在本周举行的一次能源会议上，欧佩克秘书长海瑟姆·盖斯重申了该组织的观点，即到2045年，全球石油需求将达到每天1.1亿桶，这比当前水平大约增加了10%。天然气、可再生能源和氢气的需求都将增加，但石油仍将占据“C位”。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/08d0c3f3b554e2d9361dd85ff7db2552\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"370\" tg-height=\"465\"/></p><p>如果欧佩克是对的，这对于全球限制气候变化的努力来说是个坏消息。根据国际能源署（IEA）的数据，要想实现净零排放目标，并将全球变暖限制在比工业化前水平高1.5摄氏度的范围内，石油需求到2050年必须降至每天3000万桶以下。 </p><p>能源咨询公司WK Associates董事总经理、美国证券交易委员会（SEC）2050年石油预测评论的合著者亚历山大·谢伊（Alexander Schay）表示，<strong>大多数美国石油巨头也站在“高需求”阵营。 </strong></p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/XOM\">埃克森美孚</a>在最近的一份文件中表示，全球实现净零排放的可能性很低，因为这会导致生活水平下降。该公司预计，到2050年，全球石油需求仍约为每天1亿桶，并押注碳捕获和储存以及甲烷减排等技术将使世界在未来几十年能够使用化石燃料。 </p><p>相比之下，<strong>欧洲石油生产商正在考虑能源转型进展更快的可能性。</strong>壳牌最新的能源安全报告指出了两种情景：一是即使没有新的气候政策，它也认为到本世纪中叶石油需求将下降10%左右。二是如果世界真正认真减少碳排放，那么石油需求就会暴跌。 </p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BP\">英国石油</a>公司研究的“假设”方案则显示，根据市场上已经看到的趋势，预计石油产量将下降约25%；在气候法规收紧的“加速”情景下，石油产量将下降近60%。 </p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/99d9d5e0b493322da094d6c872105027\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"403\" tg-height=\"476\"/></p><p>不过，这两家欧洲公司都<strong>还没有认真准备应对这些具有挑战性的结果。</strong>壳牌和英国石油公司最近都取消了本十年大幅削减石油产量的计划，但表明一旦客户需求减少，他们将减少供应。</p><p>投资者可以观察两大趋势以预判石油需求前景</p><p>由于石油需求仍在增长，目前乐观的预测看起来确实更加现实。不过，能源公司高管仍可能会被更严格的法规、不确定的技术或破坏性天气事件的激增打个措手不及。</p><p>所有可能使人们意识到需要快速减排的潜在风险都凸显了能源公司面临的巨大不确定性。在壳牌本月的投资者日上，首席执行官Wael Sawan告诉股东，“如果我假装知道能源行业的各个领域在2026年、2027年、2028年期间将走向何方，那我一定是在骗你们”。</p><p>投资者可以关注的一个重要波动因素是<strong>道路运输石油需求下降的速度。</strong>这将取决于燃气发动机汽车的燃油效率如何以及电动汽车的需求前景。目前，电动汽车占全球乘用车销量的16%。数据提供商EV-volumes.com预计到2035年这一比例将迅速上升至68%。</p><p>如果许多消费者仍然买不起电动汽车，那么电动汽车的普及将需要更长的时间，这在一定程度上取决于锂等电池材料的供应。目前还不清楚破旧的电力基础设施是否能够满足世界摆脱化石燃料所需的电气化水平。供应链和许可方面的瓶颈正在推迟新风能和<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/000591\">太阳能</a>发电的使用，尤其是在欧洲。</p><p>另一个值得关注的趋势是，<strong>新兴市场不断增长的能源需求能否被节能措施抵消</strong>，比如LED照明或更节能的空调。除了能源以外，随着中产阶级的壮大，消费者可能会在包装商品上花费更多钱。这将导致对石油基原料的需求飙升，除非回收率提高或一次性塑料被禁止使用。 </p><p>股东们似乎并不相信石油仍有光明的未来。根据投资研究公司New Constructs的数据，壳牌、英国石油、埃克森美孚和<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CVX\">雪佛龙</a>的股价正在下跌。总体而言，石油行业处于不稳定状态，让我们静观其变。</p></body></html>","source":"xnew_highlight","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>石油巨头“前途未卜”！巴菲特却又一次果断出手</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ 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}\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n石油巨头“前途未卜”！巴菲特却又一次果断出手\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2023-06-29 18:53 北京时间 <a href=https://xnews.jin10.com/webapp/details.html?id=115983&type=news&data_type=0><strong>金十数据</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>当地时间周三晚间，美国证交会（SEC）文件显示，最近几天，巴菲特旗下伯克希尔·哈撒韦公司购买了210万股西方石油公司的股票，持股比例提高至25.1%。该公司目前合计持有2.241亿股西方石油股票，按周三收盘价计算，这一头寸价值约129亿美元。伯克希尔今年仍在稳步增持西方石油的股票，最近的一笔股票购买平均支付了每股略高于57美元的价格。但在5月份的伯克希尔年度会议上，巴菲特表示，他不会寻求拥有对...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://xnews.jin10.com/webapp/details.html?id=115983&type=news&data_type=0\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/986ba931b62e181d9960d9c90144a351","relate_stocks":{"BRK.A":"伯克希尔","OXY":"西方石油"},"source_url":"https://xnews.jin10.com/webapp/details.html?id=115983&type=news&data_type=0","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2347638733","content_text":"当地时间周三晚间，美国证交会（SEC）文件显示，最近几天，巴菲特旗下伯克希尔·哈撒韦公司购买了210万股西方石油公司的股票，持股比例提高至25.1%。该公司目前合计持有2.241亿股西方石油股票，按周三收盘价计算，这一头寸价值约129亿美元。伯克希尔今年仍在稳步增持西方石油的股票，最近的一笔股票购买平均支付了每股略高于57美元的价格。但在5月份的伯克希尔年度会议上，巴菲特表示，他不会寻求拥有对西方石油公司的控制权。巴菲特当时表示，他对西方石油首席执行官维琪·霍鲁布（Vicki Hollub）评价很高，她正在推行能源行业最雄心勃勃、最具创新性的碳捕获战略之一。《巴伦周刊》最近将霍鲁布列入2023年最佳首席执行官名单。SEC文件还指出，西方石油最近以10%的溢价赎回了伯克希尔持有的8%优先股，赎回成本约为1.6亿美元。伯克希尔目前还持有价值约92亿美元的西方石油优先股。今年迄今，西方石油已经回购8亿美元的优先股。2019年，西方石油为收购另一家石油阿纳达科，以发行优先股的形式向伯克希尔借款，并以普通股的形式偿还每次的利息。这使得伯克希尔拥有了西方石油价值100亿美元的优先股，以及一小部分普通股。 除此之外，伯克希尔还拥有近8400万份认股权证，可以以略低于每股60美元的价格购买这家能源公司的普通股。巴菲特喜欢以每股不到60美元的价格购买西方石油公司的普通股，如今油价的下跌正好使其能够以自身认为有吸引力的价格购买更多股票。今年早些时候，当油价较高时，西方石油公司的股价约为每股75美元。能源高管对2050年全球石油需求的预测分歧明显然而，随着能源转型的推进，投资者对于巴菲特大举押注能源公司的举措保持谨慎。在能源行业，对2050年石油需求量的估计分歧显著，悲观者预计届时石油需求将较现在减少80%，乐观者认为一切照常。投资者面临着一项艰巨的任务，即押注哪些公司站在了该行业几十年来最重要趋势的正确一边。在本周举行的一次能源会议上，欧佩克秘书长海瑟姆·盖斯重申了该组织的观点，即到2045年，全球石油需求将达到每天1.1亿桶，这比当前水平大约增加了10%。天然气、可再生能源和氢气的需求都将增加，但石油仍将占据“C位”。如果欧佩克是对的，这对于全球限制气候变化的努力来说是个坏消息。根据国际能源署（IEA）的数据，要想实现净零排放目标，并将全球变暖限制在比工业化前水平高1.5摄氏度的范围内，石油需求到2050年必须降至每天3000万桶以下。 能源咨询公司WK Associates董事总经理、美国证券交易委员会（SEC）2050年石油预测评论的合著者亚历山大·谢伊（Alexander Schay）表示，大多数美国石油巨头也站在“高需求”阵营。 埃克森美孚在最近的一份文件中表示，全球实现净零排放的可能性很低，因为这会导致生活水平下降。该公司预计，到2050年，全球石油需求仍约为每天1亿桶，并押注碳捕获和储存以及甲烷减排等技术将使世界在未来几十年能够使用化石燃料。 相比之下，欧洲石油生产商正在考虑能源转型进展更快的可能性。壳牌最新的能源安全报告指出了两种情景：一是即使没有新的气候政策，它也认为到本世纪中叶石油需求将下降10%左右。二是如果世界真正认真减少碳排放，那么石油需求就会暴跌。 英国石油公司研究的“假设”方案则显示，根据市场上已经看到的趋势，预计石油产量将下降约25%；在气候法规收紧的“加速”情景下，石油产量将下降近60%。 不过，这两家欧洲公司都还没有认真准备应对这些具有挑战性的结果。壳牌和英国石油公司最近都取消了本十年大幅削减石油产量的计划，但表明一旦客户需求减少，他们将减少供应。投资者可以观察两大趋势以预判石油需求前景由于石油需求仍在增长，目前乐观的预测看起来确实更加现实。不过，能源公司高管仍可能会被更严格的法规、不确定的技术或破坏性天气事件的激增打个措手不及。所有可能使人们意识到需要快速减排的潜在风险都凸显了能源公司面临的巨大不确定性。在壳牌本月的投资者日上，首席执行官Wael Sawan告诉股东，“如果我假装知道能源行业的各个领域在2026年、2027年、2028年期间将走向何方，那我一定是在骗你们”。投资者可以关注的一个重要波动因素是道路运输石油需求下降的速度。这将取决于燃气发动机汽车的燃油效率如何以及电动汽车的需求前景。目前，电动汽车占全球乘用车销量的16%。数据提供商EV-volumes.com预计到2035年这一比例将迅速上升至68%。如果许多消费者仍然买不起电动汽车，那么电动汽车的普及将需要更长的时间，这在一定程度上取决于锂等电池材料的供应。目前还不清楚破旧的电力基础设施是否能够满足世界摆脱化石燃料所需的电气化水平。供应链和许可方面的瓶颈正在推迟新风能和太阳能发电的使用，尤其是在欧洲。另一个值得关注的趋势是，新兴市场不断增长的能源需求能否被节能措施抵消，比如LED照明或更节能的空调。除了能源以外，随着中产阶级的壮大，消费者可能会在包装商品上花费更多钱。这将导致对石油基原料的需求飙升，除非回收率提高或一次性塑料被禁止使用。 股东们似乎并不相信石油仍有光明的未来。根据投资研究公司New Constructs的数据，壳牌、英国石油、埃克森美孚和雪佛龙的股价正在下跌。总体而言，石油行业处于不稳定状态，让我们静观其变。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":834,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":628243962,"gmtCreate":1673291221456,"gmtModify":1673298988125,"author":{"id":"3567869011586257","authorId":"3567869011586257","name":"大成发发发","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0e9e702252efc7f1819af1d6c9c25cc2","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3567869011586257","authorIdStr":"3567869011586257"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看","listText":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看","text":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/628243962","repostId":"2294669708","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1604,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":688311529,"gmtCreate":1657372147065,"gmtModify":1704867262835,"author":{"id":"3567869011586257","authorId":"3567869011586257","name":"大成发发发","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0e9e702252efc7f1819af1d6c9c25cc2","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3567869011586257","authorIdStr":"3567869011586257"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"很不错的文章！","listText":"很不错的文章！","text":"很不错的文章！","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/688311529","repostId":"614466258","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":614466258,"gmtCreate":1653760600879,"gmtModify":1704858032421,"author":{"id":"3500773707643786","authorId":"3500773707643786","name":"阿强观港美股","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9dad38649fc47712e5a4b86bce9af5da","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3500773707643786","authorIdStr":"3500773707643786"},"themes":[],"title":"如何投资才能赚钱呢？做到长期主义","htmlText":"时间真快，从业港股.美股投资服务近10年了，服务的投资者越来越多，发现亏损的投资者也越来越多，10位投资者，7位亏损，2位打平，1位盈利，其实还真差不多是这个比例，或者更差些所以一直在思考到底如何投资才能赚钱呢同时是具有长期主义的投资方式呢答案：要具有一个正向良性的投资方式那应该如何做到呢 ？首先需要拥有一个好的投资价值观，在保住自己本金的情况下，再谈收益一，分散配置全球最核心资产进来股票市场不要谈什么认知更加不要听小道消息买股票首先第一：踏踏实实买些全球最核心资产例如：苹果，微软，亚马逊腾讯，阿里，美团等等或者直接买基金，例如：伯克希尔，标普500ETF，纳指ETF，恒生科技指数ETF买这些最核心资产，在赚到钱的情况下，再拿盈利，切记是拿盈利，去买自己想要买的股票，或者去投机都好，反正是盈利来的。这样就可以做到一个正向良性的投资方式例如：有20万买个核心组合资产：5万买伯克希尔5万买苹果5万买腾讯5万买恒生科技指数ETF1，如果赚钱了三五个月，或者一年半载之后，这个资产组合赚钱了，例如，变成了12万，盈利了2万，你可以按照比例减持2万，则可以用这2万盈利，按照你的认知，去买你想要买的股票。其实在股票极其诱惑的市场，特别是中小股票，大涨大跌，有些十倍牛股，或者有些暴跌，又想去抄底，例如，近期的滴滴，总有投资者想去博博。但你只能拿盈利去买这些，也就区区2万盈利，如果你很厉害，2万，也可以足以让你赚到更多的钱。当然如果你很快亏掉这2万盈利，那也没事，因为是盈利来的。等后期，你买的核心资产组合又赚到钱了，再拿盈利出来，依然有机会再让你去展示身手的。2，如果亏钱了如果一年半载之后，这个组合配置还是没赚钱，那你就继续踏踏实实持有，一定要沉住气。不过如果有闲钱，也是可以继续加仓配置核心资产。其实如果你买这些最核心资产，都赚不到钱，那买其他股票，只会亏损更多，例如：你买苹果股票都亏损20","listText":"时间真快，从业港股.美股投资服务近10年了，服务的投资者越来越多，发现亏损的投资者也越来越多，10位投资者，7位亏损，2位打平，1位盈利，其实还真差不多是这个比例，或者更差些所以一直在思考到底如何投资才能赚钱呢同时是具有长期主义的投资方式呢答案：要具有一个正向良性的投资方式那应该如何做到呢 ？首先需要拥有一个好的投资价值观，在保住自己本金的情况下，再谈收益一，分散配置全球最核心资产进来股票市场不要谈什么认知更加不要听小道消息买股票首先第一：踏踏实实买些全球最核心资产例如：苹果，微软，亚马逊腾讯，阿里，美团等等或者直接买基金，例如：伯克希尔，标普500ETF，纳指ETF，恒生科技指数ETF买这些最核心资产，在赚到钱的情况下，再拿盈利，切记是拿盈利，去买自己想要买的股票，或者去投机都好，反正是盈利来的。这样就可以做到一个正向良性的投资方式例如：有20万买个核心组合资产：5万买伯克希尔5万买苹果5万买腾讯5万买恒生科技指数ETF1，如果赚钱了三五个月，或者一年半载之后，这个资产组合赚钱了，例如，变成了12万，盈利了2万，你可以按照比例减持2万，则可以用这2万盈利，按照你的认知，去买你想要买的股票。其实在股票极其诱惑的市场，特别是中小股票，大涨大跌，有些十倍牛股，或者有些暴跌，又想去抄底，例如，近期的滴滴，总有投资者想去博博。但你只能拿盈利去买这些，也就区区2万盈利，如果你很厉害，2万，也可以足以让你赚到更多的钱。当然如果你很快亏掉这2万盈利，那也没事，因为是盈利来的。等后期，你买的核心资产组合又赚到钱了，再拿盈利出来，依然有机会再让你去展示身手的。2，如果亏钱了如果一年半载之后，这个组合配置还是没赚钱，那你就继续踏踏实实持有，一定要沉住气。不过如果有闲钱，也是可以继续加仓配置核心资产。其实如果你买这些最核心资产，都赚不到钱，那买其他股票，只会亏损更多，例如：你买苹果股票都亏损20","text":"时间真快，从业港股.美股投资服务近10年了，服务的投资者越来越多，发现亏损的投资者也越来越多，10位投资者，7位亏损，2位打平，1位盈利，其实还真差不多是这个比例，或者更差些所以一直在思考到底如何投资才能赚钱呢同时是具有长期主义的投资方式呢答案：要具有一个正向良性的投资方式那应该如何做到呢 ？首先需要拥有一个好的投资价值观，在保住自己本金的情况下，再谈收益一，分散配置全球最核心资产进来股票市场不要谈什么认知更加不要听小道消息买股票首先第一：踏踏实实买些全球最核心资产例如：苹果，微软，亚马逊腾讯，阿里，美团等等或者直接买基金，例如：伯克希尔，标普500ETF，纳指ETF，恒生科技指数ETF买这些最核心资产，在赚到钱的情况下，再拿盈利，切记是拿盈利，去买自己想要买的股票，或者去投机都好，反正是盈利来的。这样就可以做到一个正向良性的投资方式例如：有20万买个核心组合资产：5万买伯克希尔5万买苹果5万买腾讯5万买恒生科技指数ETF1，如果赚钱了三五个月，或者一年半载之后，这个资产组合赚钱了，例如，变成了12万，盈利了2万，你可以按照比例减持2万，则可以用这2万盈利，按照你的认知，去买你想要买的股票。其实在股票极其诱惑的市场，特别是中小股票，大涨大跌，有些十倍牛股，或者有些暴跌，又想去抄底，例如，近期的滴滴，总有投资者想去博博。但你只能拿盈利去买这些，也就区区2万盈利，如果你很厉害，2万，也可以足以让你赚到更多的钱。当然如果你很快亏掉这2万盈利，那也没事，因为是盈利来的。等后期，你买的核心资产组合又赚到钱了，再拿盈利出来，依然有机会再让你去展示身手的。2，如果亏钱了如果一年半载之后，这个组合配置还是没赚钱，那你就继续踏踏实实持有，一定要沉住气。不过如果有闲钱，也是可以继续加仓配置核心资产。其实如果你买这些最核心资产，都赚不到钱，那买其他股票，只会亏损更多，例如：你买苹果股票都亏损20","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/53ef5d72f98984f6a62ce49e37414b81","width":"1022","height":"338"},{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bc8c23747483490abab3a297949ddb19","width":"1151","height":"437"},{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/89b75fc1478a5c18a68b5ded4cd3be95","width":"1144","height":"355"}],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":2,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/614466258","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":4,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1782,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":235825375420536,"gmtCreate":1698596481147,"gmtModify":1698596482533,"author":{"id":"3567869011586257","authorId":"3567869011586257","name":"大成发发发","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0e9e702252efc7f1819af1d6c9c25cc2","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3567869011586257","authorIdStr":"3567869011586257"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看","listText":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看","text":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/235825375420536","repostId":"2378522603","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":868,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":199016291983592,"gmtCreate":1689611781741,"gmtModify":1689615703286,"author":{"id":"3567869011586257","authorId":"3567869011586257","name":"大成发发发","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0e9e702252efc7f1819af1d6c9c25cc2","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3567869011586257","authorIdStr":"3567869011586257"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看","listText":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看","text":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/199016291983592","repostId":"196385354997816","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":196385354997816,"gmtCreate":1688977315273,"gmtModify":1688977363132,"author":{"id":"36990708048000","authorId":"36990708048000","name":"好文","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/30ffc647410e858943769a0c5937ac1e","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"36990708048000","authorIdStr":"36990708048000"},"themes":[],"title":"瑞幸咖啡，上岸了吗？","htmlText":"三年回归正轨，再陷低价泥潭，下沉市场遇敌。中国咖啡江湖上演着一场翻盘大战。“谁还记得速溶咖啡时代的雀巢、麦斯威尔？”咖啡从业者关丛说，现磨咖啡时代，本土品牌的风头完全盖过了国外品牌。一说起咖啡，过去很多人恐怕第一时间想到的是 <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SBUX\">$星巴克(SBUX)$</a> ，现在可能换成了 <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LKNCY\">$瑞幸咖啡(LKNCY)$</a> ，“也可能是Nowwa（挪瓦）咖啡或者Manner”，关丛更愿意把中国咖啡市场的变化，称之为咖啡产业大翻盘。全球咖啡连锁巨头星巴克，一直被咖啡行业当作一个衡量标准。把时间拉回到1999年，星巴克在北京国贸开出中国内地第一家门店，直到18年后的2017年10月，瑞幸的第一家店才起步，位于5公里以外的北京银河SOHO。尽管公众对瑞幸的评价毁誉参半，但它是咖啡江湖上一个值得研究的样本。从开出第一家门店到上市只用了19个月，它创造了最快的IPO神话；从纳斯达克圆梦到被迫退市只用了13个月，它自曝财务造假22亿，引发商业史上惊天丑闻；如今，退市三年后，它在今年6月冲到了一万家门店，比入华24年的星巴克多了近四千家。伴随而来的是，人们对瑞幸起死回生过程中待解的谜题。旧瑞幸靠着烧钱补贴高歌猛进，一朝爆雷，公司几乎走向全面崩盘，但过去三年多，它是怎么冲到上万家店的？瑞幸进入万店时代，外界对此的一种解读是：早年瑞幸“碰瓷”星巴克，现在吹过的牛皮终于实现了。曾经以挑战者姿态出道的瑞幸，真的超越星巴克了吗？危机爆发后，瑞幸的盈利能力反而逐渐向好，2022年跻身百亿营收俱乐部，目前在粉单市场（从纳斯达克、纽交所退市的公司，可去粉单市场交易）的股价为27美元，相比当年在纳斯达克17美元的发行价，超出59%。今天的瑞幸，“上岸”了吗？从这些疑问入手，本","listText":"三年回归正轨，再陷低价泥潭，下沉市场遇敌。中国咖啡江湖上演着一场翻盘大战。“谁还记得速溶咖啡时代的雀巢、麦斯威尔？”咖啡从业者关丛说，现磨咖啡时代，本土品牌的风头完全盖过了国外品牌。一说起咖啡，过去很多人恐怕第一时间想到的是 <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SBUX\">$星巴克(SBUX)$</a> ，现在可能换成了 <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LKNCY\">$瑞幸咖啡(LKNCY)$</a> ，“也可能是Nowwa（挪瓦）咖啡或者Manner”，关丛更愿意把中国咖啡市场的变化，称之为咖啡产业大翻盘。全球咖啡连锁巨头星巴克，一直被咖啡行业当作一个衡量标准。把时间拉回到1999年，星巴克在北京国贸开出中国内地第一家门店，直到18年后的2017年10月，瑞幸的第一家店才起步，位于5公里以外的北京银河SOHO。尽管公众对瑞幸的评价毁誉参半，但它是咖啡江湖上一个值得研究的样本。从开出第一家门店到上市只用了19个月，它创造了最快的IPO神话；从纳斯达克圆梦到被迫退市只用了13个月，它自曝财务造假22亿，引发商业史上惊天丑闻；如今，退市三年后，它在今年6月冲到了一万家门店，比入华24年的星巴克多了近四千家。伴随而来的是，人们对瑞幸起死回生过程中待解的谜题。旧瑞幸靠着烧钱补贴高歌猛进，一朝爆雷，公司几乎走向全面崩盘，但过去三年多，它是怎么冲到上万家店的？瑞幸进入万店时代，外界对此的一种解读是：早年瑞幸“碰瓷”星巴克，现在吹过的牛皮终于实现了。曾经以挑战者姿态出道的瑞幸，真的超越星巴克了吗？危机爆发后，瑞幸的盈利能力反而逐渐向好，2022年跻身百亿营收俱乐部，目前在粉单市场（从纳斯达克、纽交所退市的公司，可去粉单市场交易）的股价为27美元，相比当年在纳斯达克17美元的发行价，超出59%。今天的瑞幸，“上岸”了吗？从这些疑问入手，本","text":"三年回归正轨，再陷低价泥潭，下沉市场遇敌。中国咖啡江湖上演着一场翻盘大战。“谁还记得速溶咖啡时代的雀巢、麦斯威尔？”咖啡从业者关丛说，现磨咖啡时代，本土品牌的风头完全盖过了国外品牌。一说起咖啡，过去很多人恐怕第一时间想到的是 $星巴克(SBUX)$ ，现在可能换成了 $瑞幸咖啡(LKNCY)$ ，“也可能是Nowwa（挪瓦）咖啡或者Manner”，关丛更愿意把中国咖啡市场的变化，称之为咖啡产业大翻盘。全球咖啡连锁巨头星巴克，一直被咖啡行业当作一个衡量标准。把时间拉回到1999年，星巴克在北京国贸开出中国内地第一家门店，直到18年后的2017年10月，瑞幸的第一家店才起步，位于5公里以外的北京银河SOHO。尽管公众对瑞幸的评价毁誉参半，但它是咖啡江湖上一个值得研究的样本。从开出第一家门店到上市只用了19个月，它创造了最快的IPO神话；从纳斯达克圆梦到被迫退市只用了13个月，它自曝财务造假22亿，引发商业史上惊天丑闻；如今，退市三年后，它在今年6月冲到了一万家门店，比入华24年的星巴克多了近四千家。伴随而来的是，人们对瑞幸起死回生过程中待解的谜题。旧瑞幸靠着烧钱补贴高歌猛进，一朝爆雷，公司几乎走向全面崩盘，但过去三年多，它是怎么冲到上万家店的？瑞幸进入万店时代，外界对此的一种解读是：早年瑞幸“碰瓷”星巴克，现在吹过的牛皮终于实现了。曾经以挑战者姿态出道的瑞幸，真的超越星巴克了吗？危机爆发后，瑞幸的盈利能力反而逐渐向好，2022年跻身百亿营收俱乐部，目前在粉单市场（从纳斯达克、纽交所退市的公司，可去粉单市场交易）的股价为27美元，相比当年在纳斯达克17美元的发行价，超出59%。今天的瑞幸，“上岸”了吗？从这些疑问入手，本","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e39f14c69b340665648f7ccc31d16b7b","width":"1080","height":"983"},{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/29859768b05a41acc6a4a7727310d8c0","width":"1080","height":"534"},{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/105cdde3b4406c37ff0687e754579c4e","width":"1080","height":"435"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":2,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/196385354997816","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":7,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1068,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":192665460518976,"gmtCreate":1688079383379,"gmtModify":1688088721266,"author":{"id":"3567869011586257","authorId":"3567869011586257","name":"大成发发发","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0e9e702252efc7f1819af1d6c9c25cc2","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3567869011586257","authorIdStr":"3567869011586257"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看","listText":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看","text":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/192665460518976","repostId":"2347638733","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2347638733","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1688036014,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2347638733?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2023-06-29 18:53","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"石油巨头“前途未卜”！巴菲特却又一次果断出手","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2347638733","media":"金十数据","summary":"石油行业处于不稳定状态，让我们静观其变。","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>当地时间周三晚间，美国证交会（SEC）文件显示，最近几天，<strong>巴菲特旗下<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BRK.A\">伯克希尔</a>·哈撒韦公司购买了210万股<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/OXY\">西方石油</a>公司的股票，持股比例提高至25.1%。</strong></p><p>该公司目前合计持有2.241亿股西方石油股票，按周三收盘价计算，这一头寸价值约129亿美元。</p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a390271dbc4af0a34aa767369e200084\" tg-width=\"560\" tg-height=\"240\"/></p><p>伯克希尔今年仍在稳步增持西方石油的股票，最近的一笔股票购买平均支付了每股略高于57美元的价格。但在5月份的伯克希尔年度会议上，巴菲特表示，他不会寻求拥有对西方石油公司的控制权。</p><p>巴菲特当时表示，他对西方石油首席执行官维琪·霍鲁布（Vicki Hollub）评价很高，她正在推行能源行业最雄心勃勃、最具创新性的碳捕获战略之一。《巴伦周刊》最近将霍鲁布列入2023年最佳首席执行官名单。</p><p>SEC文件还指出，西方石油最近以10%的溢价赎回了伯克希尔持有的8%优先股，赎回成本约为1.6亿美元。伯克希尔目前还持有价值约92亿美元的西方石油优先股。今年迄今，西方石油已经回购8亿美元的优先股。</p><p>2019年，西方石油为收购另一家石油阿纳达科，以发行优先股的形式向伯克希尔借款，并以普通股的形式偿还每次的利息。这使得伯克希尔拥有了西方石油价值100亿美元的优先股，以及一小部分普通股。 除此之外，伯克希尔还拥有近8400万份认股权证，可以以略低于每股60美元的价格购买这家能源公司的普通股。</p><p>巴菲特喜欢以每股不到60美元的价格购买西方石油公司的普通股，如今油价的下跌正好使其能够以自身认为有吸引力的价格购买更多股票。今年早些时候，当油价较高时，西方石油公司的股价约为每股75美元。</p><p>能源高管对2050年全球石油需求的预测分歧明显</p><p>然而，随着能源转型的推进，投资者对于巴菲特大举押注能源公司的举措保持谨慎。</p><p>在能源行业，<strong>对2050年石油需求量的估计分歧显著，悲观者预计届时石油需求将较现在减少80%，乐观者认为一切照常。</strong>投资者面临着一项艰巨的任务，即押注哪些公司站在了该行业几十年来最重要趋势的正确一边。</p><p>在本周举行的一次能源会议上，欧佩克秘书长海瑟姆·盖斯重申了该组织的观点，即到2045年，全球石油需求将达到每天1.1亿桶，这比当前水平大约增加了10%。天然气、可再生能源和氢气的需求都将增加，但石油仍将占据“C位”。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/08d0c3f3b554e2d9361dd85ff7db2552\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"370\" tg-height=\"465\"/></p><p>如果欧佩克是对的，这对于全球限制气候变化的努力来说是个坏消息。根据国际能源署（IEA）的数据，要想实现净零排放目标，并将全球变暖限制在比工业化前水平高1.5摄氏度的范围内，石油需求到2050年必须降至每天3000万桶以下。 </p><p>能源咨询公司WK Associates董事总经理、美国证券交易委员会（SEC）2050年石油预测评论的合著者亚历山大·谢伊（Alexander Schay）表示，<strong>大多数美国石油巨头也站在“高需求”阵营。 </strong></p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/XOM\">埃克森美孚</a>在最近的一份文件中表示，全球实现净零排放的可能性很低，因为这会导致生活水平下降。该公司预计，到2050年，全球石油需求仍约为每天1亿桶，并押注碳捕获和储存以及甲烷减排等技术将使世界在未来几十年能够使用化石燃料。 </p><p>相比之下，<strong>欧洲石油生产商正在考虑能源转型进展更快的可能性。</strong>壳牌最新的能源安全报告指出了两种情景：一是即使没有新的气候政策，它也认为到本世纪中叶石油需求将下降10%左右。二是如果世界真正认真减少碳排放，那么石油需求就会暴跌。 </p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BP\">英国石油</a>公司研究的“假设”方案则显示，根据市场上已经看到的趋势，预计石油产量将下降约25%；在气候法规收紧的“加速”情景下，石油产量将下降近60%。 </p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/99d9d5e0b493322da094d6c872105027\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"403\" tg-height=\"476\"/></p><p>不过，这两家欧洲公司都<strong>还没有认真准备应对这些具有挑战性的结果。</strong>壳牌和英国石油公司最近都取消了本十年大幅削减石油产量的计划，但表明一旦客户需求减少，他们将减少供应。</p><p>投资者可以观察两大趋势以预判石油需求前景</p><p>由于石油需求仍在增长，目前乐观的预测看起来确实更加现实。不过，能源公司高管仍可能会被更严格的法规、不确定的技术或破坏性天气事件的激增打个措手不及。</p><p>所有可能使人们意识到需要快速减排的潜在风险都凸显了能源公司面临的巨大不确定性。在壳牌本月的投资者日上，首席执行官Wael Sawan告诉股东，“如果我假装知道能源行业的各个领域在2026年、2027年、2028年期间将走向何方，那我一定是在骗你们”。</p><p>投资者可以关注的一个重要波动因素是<strong>道路运输石油需求下降的速度。</strong>这将取决于燃气发动机汽车的燃油效率如何以及电动汽车的需求前景。目前，电动汽车占全球乘用车销量的16%。数据提供商EV-volumes.com预计到2035年这一比例将迅速上升至68%。</p><p>如果许多消费者仍然买不起电动汽车，那么电动汽车的普及将需要更长的时间，这在一定程度上取决于锂等电池材料的供应。目前还不清楚破旧的电力基础设施是否能够满足世界摆脱化石燃料所需的电气化水平。供应链和许可方面的瓶颈正在推迟新风能和<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/000591\">太阳能</a>发电的使用，尤其是在欧洲。</p><p>另一个值得关注的趋势是，<strong>新兴市场不断增长的能源需求能否被节能措施抵消</strong>，比如LED照明或更节能的空调。除了能源以外，随着中产阶级的壮大，消费者可能会在包装商品上花费更多钱。这将导致对石油基原料的需求飙升，除非回收率提高或一次性塑料被禁止使用。 </p><p>股东们似乎并不相信石油仍有光明的未来。根据投资研究公司New Constructs的数据，壳牌、英国石油、埃克森美孚和<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CVX\">雪佛龙</a>的股价正在下跌。总体而言，石油行业处于不稳定状态，让我们静观其变。</p></body></html>","source":"xnew_highlight","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>石油巨头“前途未卜”！巴菲特却又一次果断出手</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ 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0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n石油巨头“前途未卜”！巴菲特却又一次果断出手\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2023-06-29 18:53 北京时间 <a href=https://xnews.jin10.com/webapp/details.html?id=115983&type=news&data_type=0><strong>金十数据</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>当地时间周三晚间，美国证交会（SEC）文件显示，最近几天，巴菲特旗下伯克希尔·哈撒韦公司购买了210万股西方石油公司的股票，持股比例提高至25.1%。该公司目前合计持有2.241亿股西方石油股票，按周三收盘价计算，这一头寸价值约129亿美元。伯克希尔今年仍在稳步增持西方石油的股票，最近的一笔股票购买平均支付了每股略高于57美元的价格。但在5月份的伯克希尔年度会议上，巴菲特表示，他不会寻求拥有对...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://xnews.jin10.com/webapp/details.html?id=115983&type=news&data_type=0\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/986ba931b62e181d9960d9c90144a351","relate_stocks":{"BRK.A":"伯克希尔","OXY":"西方石油"},"source_url":"https://xnews.jin10.com/webapp/details.html?id=115983&type=news&data_type=0","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2347638733","content_text":"当地时间周三晚间，美国证交会（SEC）文件显示，最近几天，巴菲特旗下伯克希尔·哈撒韦公司购买了210万股西方石油公司的股票，持股比例提高至25.1%。该公司目前合计持有2.241亿股西方石油股票，按周三收盘价计算，这一头寸价值约129亿美元。伯克希尔今年仍在稳步增持西方石油的股票，最近的一笔股票购买平均支付了每股略高于57美元的价格。但在5月份的伯克希尔年度会议上，巴菲特表示，他不会寻求拥有对西方石油公司的控制权。巴菲特当时表示，他对西方石油首席执行官维琪·霍鲁布（Vicki Hollub）评价很高，她正在推行能源行业最雄心勃勃、最具创新性的碳捕获战略之一。《巴伦周刊》最近将霍鲁布列入2023年最佳首席执行官名单。SEC文件还指出，西方石油最近以10%的溢价赎回了伯克希尔持有的8%优先股，赎回成本约为1.6亿美元。伯克希尔目前还持有价值约92亿美元的西方石油优先股。今年迄今，西方石油已经回购8亿美元的优先股。2019年，西方石油为收购另一家石油阿纳达科，以发行优先股的形式向伯克希尔借款，并以普通股的形式偿还每次的利息。这使得伯克希尔拥有了西方石油价值100亿美元的优先股，以及一小部分普通股。 除此之外，伯克希尔还拥有近8400万份认股权证，可以以略低于每股60美元的价格购买这家能源公司的普通股。巴菲特喜欢以每股不到60美元的价格购买西方石油公司的普通股，如今油价的下跌正好使其能够以自身认为有吸引力的价格购买更多股票。今年早些时候，当油价较高时，西方石油公司的股价约为每股75美元。能源高管对2050年全球石油需求的预测分歧明显然而，随着能源转型的推进，投资者对于巴菲特大举押注能源公司的举措保持谨慎。在能源行业，对2050年石油需求量的估计分歧显著，悲观者预计届时石油需求将较现在减少80%，乐观者认为一切照常。投资者面临着一项艰巨的任务，即押注哪些公司站在了该行业几十年来最重要趋势的正确一边。在本周举行的一次能源会议上，欧佩克秘书长海瑟姆·盖斯重申了该组织的观点，即到2045年，全球石油需求将达到每天1.1亿桶，这比当前水平大约增加了10%。天然气、可再生能源和氢气的需求都将增加，但石油仍将占据“C位”。如果欧佩克是对的，这对于全球限制气候变化的努力来说是个坏消息。根据国际能源署（IEA）的数据，要想实现净零排放目标，并将全球变暖限制在比工业化前水平高1.5摄氏度的范围内，石油需求到2050年必须降至每天3000万桶以下。 能源咨询公司WK Associates董事总经理、美国证券交易委员会（SEC）2050年石油预测评论的合著者亚历山大·谢伊（Alexander Schay）表示，大多数美国石油巨头也站在“高需求”阵营。 埃克森美孚在最近的一份文件中表示，全球实现净零排放的可能性很低，因为这会导致生活水平下降。该公司预计，到2050年，全球石油需求仍约为每天1亿桶，并押注碳捕获和储存以及甲烷减排等技术将使世界在未来几十年能够使用化石燃料。 相比之下，欧洲石油生产商正在考虑能源转型进展更快的可能性。壳牌最新的能源安全报告指出了两种情景：一是即使没有新的气候政策，它也认为到本世纪中叶石油需求将下降10%左右。二是如果世界真正认真减少碳排放，那么石油需求就会暴跌。 英国石油公司研究的“假设”方案则显示，根据市场上已经看到的趋势，预计石油产量将下降约25%；在气候法规收紧的“加速”情景下，石油产量将下降近60%。 不过，这两家欧洲公司都还没有认真准备应对这些具有挑战性的结果。壳牌和英国石油公司最近都取消了本十年大幅削减石油产量的计划，但表明一旦客户需求减少，他们将减少供应。投资者可以观察两大趋势以预判石油需求前景由于石油需求仍在增长，目前乐观的预测看起来确实更加现实。不过，能源公司高管仍可能会被更严格的法规、不确定的技术或破坏性天气事件的激增打个措手不及。所有可能使人们意识到需要快速减排的潜在风险都凸显了能源公司面临的巨大不确定性。在壳牌本月的投资者日上，首席执行官Wael Sawan告诉股东，“如果我假装知道能源行业的各个领域在2026年、2027年、2028年期间将走向何方，那我一定是在骗你们”。投资者可以关注的一个重要波动因素是道路运输石油需求下降的速度。这将取决于燃气发动机汽车的燃油效率如何以及电动汽车的需求前景。目前，电动汽车占全球乘用车销量的16%。数据提供商EV-volumes.com预计到2035年这一比例将迅速上升至68%。如果许多消费者仍然买不起电动汽车，那么电动汽车的普及将需要更长的时间，这在一定程度上取决于锂等电池材料的供应。目前还不清楚破旧的电力基础设施是否能够满足世界摆脱化石燃料所需的电气化水平。供应链和许可方面的瓶颈正在推迟新风能和太阳能发电的使用，尤其是在欧洲。另一个值得关注的趋势是，新兴市场不断增长的能源需求能否被节能措施抵消，比如LED照明或更节能的空调。除了能源以外，随着中产阶级的壮大，消费者可能会在包装商品上花费更多钱。这将导致对石油基原料的需求飙升，除非回收率提高或一次性塑料被禁止使用。 股东们似乎并不相信石油仍有光明的未来。根据投资研究公司New Constructs的数据，壳牌、英国石油、埃克森美孚和雪佛龙的股价正在下跌。总体而言，石油行业处于不稳定状态，让我们静观其变。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":834,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":628243962,"gmtCreate":1673291221456,"gmtModify":1673298988125,"author":{"id":"3567869011586257","authorId":"3567869011586257","name":"大成发发发","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0e9e702252efc7f1819af1d6c9c25cc2","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3567869011586257","authorIdStr":"3567869011586257"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看","listText":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看","text":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/628243962","repostId":"2294669708","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2294669708","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1672059600,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2294669708?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2022-12-26 21:00","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Altria: A Conservative Pick To Click For 2023","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2294669708","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Joe Raedle I have been working on my top picks for 2023 over the last couple days, and it is a fanta","content":"<html><body><p><figure><picture> <img height=\"2000px\" loading=\"lazy\" sizes=\"(max-width: 768px) calc(100vw - 36px), (max-width: 1024px) calc(100vw - 132px), (max-width: 1200px) calc(66.6vw - 72px), 600px\" src=\"https://static.seekingalpha.com/cdn/s3/uploads/getty_images/102300115/image_102300115.jpg?io=getty-c-w750\" srcset=\"https://static.seekingalpha.com/cdn/s3/uploads/getty_images/102300115/image_102300115.jpg?io=getty-c-w1536 1536w, https://static.seekingalpha.com/cdn/s3/uploads/getty_images/102300115/image_102300115.jpg?io=getty-c-w1280 1280w, https://static.seekingalpha.com/cdn/s3/uploads/getty_images/102300115/image_102300115.jpg?io=getty-c-w1080 1080w, https://static.seekingalpha.com/cdn/s3/uploads/getty_images/102300115/image_102300115.jpg?io=getty-c-w750 750w, https://static.seekingalpha.com/cdn/s3/uploads/getty_images/102300115/image_102300115.jpg?io=getty-c-w640 640w, https://static.seekingalpha.com/cdn/s3/uploads/getty_images/102300115/image_102300115.jpg?io=getty-c-w480 480w, https://static.seekingalpha.com/cdn/s3/uploads/getty_images/102300115/image_102300115.jpg?io=getty-c-w320 320w, https://static.seekingalpha.com/cdn/s3/uploads/getty_images/102300115/image_102300115.jpg?io=getty-c-w240 240w\" width=\"3000px\"/> </picture><figcaption> <p>Joe Raedle</p></figcaption></figure></p> <p>I have been working on my top picks for 2023 over the last couple days, and it is a fantastic exercise in my opinion. Trying to go through a portfolio full of individual companies and picking a couple that<span> have more potential to provide attractive returns for investors is a great exercise and one that makes me think about what the markets will do and how these companies should perform over the next year. One of my picks for 2023 is Altria (</span><span>NYSE:MO</span><span>). The company sports an impressive margin profile, solid balance sheet, a cheap valuation, and a large dividend that pays investors to wait for share price appreciation.</span></p> <h2>Investment Thesis</h2> <p>Altria is a large tobacco company and the owner of the famous Marlboro brand here in the US. Shares have outperformed the market in 2022, and I think there is a good chance of that happening again in 2023. This is mostly due to the cheap valuation under 10x earnings and a yield over 8%. They hiked the dividend again this year, and I don’t see any reason why they would break the streak and lose their dividend king status.</p> <p>The company has an impressive margin profile and they have been working to grow product lines outside of their typical combustible products, including nicotine pouches. Declining volumes will be something for investors to keep an eye on, but I still think the risk/reward is favorable today. The company has been buying back stock at a decent clip, which will boost EPS, and I think investors could also see some multiple expansion. Overall, there are way more reasons to be bullish on Altria than bearish, especially when you get paid over 8% to wait for share price appreciation.</p> <h2>Q3 Update</h2> <p>My last article on Altria was in August, and since then, the company has released its Q3 results. While revenues were basically flat, operating margins improved slightly. Debt has also come down a bit since the end of 2021, which is a good sign considering that the company has a debt load over $25B. I would like to see that number continue to come down over time, but they don’t have too much debt on their balance sheet considering the defensive nature of their business. They also accepted a $2.7B payment from Philip Morris (PM) as a buyout of the iQOS licensing rights.</p> <p>This should give them some dry powder to work with, and Philip Morris will still have to wait until 2024 to sell iQOS products in the US. I’m curious to see how Altria handles a transition to products outside of the traditional cigarette line of business, but they have seen impressive growth in the On! nicotine pouches. They still have some work to do to catch up with Swedish Match’s (OTCPK:SWMAF) (OTCPK:SWMAY) Zyn pouches, but market share is up to 5.2% in Q3, and volumes were up almost 70% YoY. Marlboro has also maintained its dominant position in the cigarette sector. One of the things that investors point to as a reason to be cautious is declining volumes, but I think the cheap valuation more than offsets that risk.</p> <h2>Valuation</h2> <p>The cheap valuation is one of the biggest reasons to be bullish on Altria. Shares trade at an earnings multiple of 9.6x, which is far too cheap in my opinion. While it isn’t growing revenues at a rapid rate, they still have impressive margins, and continued buybacks should provide a boost to EPS. I think we will see some multiple expansion in the next couple years, which would give investors double digit returns when you factor in the 8.2% dividend.</p> <p><figure contenteditable=\"false\"><span><img contenteditable=\"true\" loading=\"lazy\" src=\"https://static.seekingalpha.com/uploads/2022/12/24/52794319-16718649164772348.png\"/></span><figcaption><p>Price/Earnings <span>(fastgraphs.com)</span></p></figcaption></figure></p> <p>Shares are just far too cheap today under $50. If you think Altria will head back to its 14.1x average multiple in the next couple years, investors are in for returns over 20%. Even if we only see a 12x multiple, that will put shares over $60 by the end of 2024. The other main reason to be bullish on Altria is the growing dividend over 8%.</p> <h2>Dividends & Buybacks</h2> <p>While Altria has been out of favor with the market in recent years, they have a consistent track record of dividend growth. It has been so consistent that the company is part of a select group that has earned the title of dividend king with over 50 years of consecutive raises. Their most recent increase was a 4.4% hike from a quarterly payout of $0.90 to $0.94. I think they will be able to raise the dividend for several years to come, but I will be watching to see if declining volumes eventually has an impact on the company’s ability to pay out its juicy 8.2% dividend.</p> <p>If the yield over 8% isn’t enough, Altria has also been repurchasing shares at a decent clip. They bought back another 8.5M shares in Q3, for $368M, at an average price of $43.68. At the end of the quarter, they only had $374M remaining on the current buyback authorization. My guess is that they will finish it off in Q4, or early in Q1 of 2023. A lot of companies have been buying back shares at high valuations in the last decade, but Altria’s buybacks are a huge boost for shareholders, especially since shares have been dirt cheap over the last couple years.</p> <h2>Conclusion</h2> <p>My top picks for 2023 both pay large dividends, and I think we are going to see dividend stocks like Altria perform well next year. It’s tough to justify buying an index when it is skewed towards tech stocks with rich valuations and small dividends, but that doesn’t mean all stocks are unattractive today. If I can find a good business with an attractively valued stock attached to it, I’m automatically interested, especially if it has a history of paying a growing dividend.</p> <p>Altria checks all of these boxes. While I will be keeping an eye on declining revenues, the company has solid margins, a good balance sheet, a cheap valuation below 10x earnings, and a yield over 8% that has over 50 years of hikes in a row. You can also throw in buybacks for good measure. I think we will see some multiple expansion, but I just have a hard time seeing how investors lose money in Altria over the next 3 to 5 years. Altria is a good candidate for income investors looking for current income, and I think shares have a good chance of outperforming broader market indices in 2023.</p> <p><strong><em>Editor's Note</em></strong><em>: This article was submitted as part of Seeking Alpha’s Top 2023 Pick competition, which runs through December 25. This competition is open to all users and contributors; </em><em>click here</em><em> to find out more and submit your article today!</em></p> <div></div> <p>Editor's Note: This article discusses one or more securities that do not trade on a major U.S. exchange. Please be aware of the risks associated with these stocks.</p></body></html>","source":"seekingalpha","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Altria: A Conservative Pick To Click For 2023</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nAltria: A Conservative Pick To Click For 2023\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-12-26 21:00 GMT+8 <a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4566323-altria-conservative-pick-to-click-2023><strong>seekingalpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Joe Raedle I have been working on my top picks for 2023 over the last couple days, and it is a fantastic exercise in my opinion. Trying to go through a portfolio full of individual companies and ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4566323-altria-conservative-pick-to-click-2023\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.seekingalpha.com/cdn/s3/uploads/getty_images/102300115/image_102300115.jpg","relate_stocks":{"BK4585":"ETF&股票定投概念","BK4075":"烟草","SG9999001440.SGD":"United Global Dividend Equity Fund A SGD Dist","BK4566":"资本集团","MO":"奥驰亚"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4566323-altria-conservative-pick-to-click-2023","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/5a36db9d73b4222bc376d24ccc48c8a4","article_id":"2294669708","content_text":"Joe Raedle I have been working on my top picks for 2023 over the last couple days, and it is a fantastic exercise in my opinion. Trying to go through a portfolio full of individual companies and picking a couple that have more potential to provide attractive returns for investors is a great exercise and one that makes me think about what the markets will do and how these companies should perform over the next year. One of my picks for 2023 is Altria (NYSE:MO). The company sports an impressive margin profile, solid balance sheet, a cheap valuation, and a large dividend that pays investors to wait for share price appreciation. Investment Thesis Altria is a large tobacco company and the owner of the famous Marlboro brand here in the US. Shares have outperformed the market in 2022, and I think there is a good chance of that happening again in 2023. This is mostly due to the cheap valuation under 10x earnings and a yield over 8%. They hiked the dividend again this year, and I don’t see any reason why they would break the streak and lose their dividend king status. The company has an impressive margin profile and they have been working to grow product lines outside of their typical combustible products, including nicotine pouches. Declining volumes will be something for investors to keep an eye on, but I still think the risk/reward is favorable today. The company has been buying back stock at a decent clip, which will boost EPS, and I think investors could also see some multiple expansion. Overall, there are way more reasons to be bullish on Altria than bearish, especially when you get paid over 8% to wait for share price appreciation. Q3 Update My last article on Altria was in August, and since then, the company has released its Q3 results. While revenues were basically flat, operating margins improved slightly. Debt has also come down a bit since the end of 2021, which is a good sign considering that the company has a debt load over $25B. I would like to see that number continue to come down over time, but they don’t have too much debt on their balance sheet considering the defensive nature of their business. They also accepted a $2.7B payment from Philip Morris (PM) as a buyout of the iQOS licensing rights. This should give them some dry powder to work with, and Philip Morris will still have to wait until 2024 to sell iQOS products in the US. I’m curious to see how Altria handles a transition to products outside of the traditional cigarette line of business, but they have seen impressive growth in the On! nicotine pouches. They still have some work to do to catch up with Swedish Match’s (OTCPK:SWMAF) (OTCPK:SWMAY) Zyn pouches, but market share is up to 5.2% in Q3, and volumes were up almost 70% YoY. Marlboro has also maintained its dominant position in the cigarette sector. One of the things that investors point to as a reason to be cautious is declining volumes, but I think the cheap valuation more than offsets that risk. Valuation The cheap valuation is one of the biggest reasons to be bullish on Altria. Shares trade at an earnings multiple of 9.6x, which is far too cheap in my opinion. While it isn’t growing revenues at a rapid rate, they still have impressive margins, and continued buybacks should provide a boost to EPS. I think we will see some multiple expansion in the next couple years, which would give investors double digit returns when you factor in the 8.2% dividend. Price/Earnings (fastgraphs.com) Shares are just far too cheap today under $50. If you think Altria will head back to its 14.1x average multiple in the next couple years, investors are in for returns over 20%. Even if we only see a 12x multiple, that will put shares over $60 by the end of 2024. The other main reason to be bullish on Altria is the growing dividend over 8%. Dividends & Buybacks While Altria has been out of favor with the market in recent years, they have a consistent track record of dividend growth. It has been so consistent that the company is part of a select group that has earned the title of dividend king with over 50 years of consecutive raises. Their most recent increase was a 4.4% hike from a quarterly payout of $0.90 to $0.94. I think they will be able to raise the dividend for several years to come, but I will be watching to see if declining volumes eventually has an impact on the company’s ability to pay out its juicy 8.2% dividend. If the yield over 8% isn’t enough, Altria has also been repurchasing shares at a decent clip. They bought back another 8.5M shares in Q3, for $368M, at an average price of $43.68. At the end of the quarter, they only had $374M remaining on the current buyback authorization. My guess is that they will finish it off in Q4, or early in Q1 of 2023. A lot of companies have been buying back shares at high valuations in the last decade, but Altria’s buybacks are a huge boost for shareholders, especially since shares have been dirt cheap over the last couple years. Conclusion My top picks for 2023 both pay large dividends, and I think we are going to see dividend stocks like Altria perform well next year. It’s tough to justify buying an index when it is skewed towards tech stocks with rich valuations and small dividends, but that doesn’t mean all stocks are unattractive today. If I can find a good business with an attractively valued stock attached to it, I’m automatically interested, especially if it has a history of paying a growing dividend. Altria checks all of these boxes. While I will be keeping an eye on declining revenues, the company has solid margins, a good balance sheet, a cheap valuation below 10x earnings, and a yield over 8% that has over 50 years of hikes in a row. You can also throw in buybacks for good measure. I think we will see some multiple expansion, but I just have a hard time seeing how investors lose money in Altria over the next 3 to 5 years. Altria is a good candidate for income investors looking for current income, and I think shares have a good chance of outperforming broader market indices in 2023. Editor's Note: This article was submitted as part of Seeking Alpha’s Top 2023 Pick competition, which runs through December 25. This competition is open to all users and contributors; click here to find out more and submit your article today! Editor's Note: This article discusses one or more securities that do not trade on a major U.S. exchange. Please be aware of the risks associated with these stocks.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1604,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":688311529,"gmtCreate":1657372147065,"gmtModify":1704867262835,"author":{"id":"3567869011586257","authorId":"3567869011586257","name":"大成发发发","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0e9e702252efc7f1819af1d6c9c25cc2","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3567869011586257","authorIdStr":"3567869011586257"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"很不错的文章！","listText":"很不错的文章！","text":"很不错的文章！","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/688311529","repostId":"614466258","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":614466258,"gmtCreate":1653760600879,"gmtModify":1704858032421,"author":{"id":"3500773707643786","authorId":"3500773707643786","name":"阿强观港美股","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9dad38649fc47712e5a4b86bce9af5da","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3500773707643786","authorIdStr":"3500773707643786"},"themes":[],"title":"如何投资才能赚钱呢？做到长期主义","htmlText":"时间真快，从业港股.美股投资服务近10年了，服务的投资者越来越多，发现亏损的投资者也越来越多，10位投资者，7位亏损，2位打平，1位盈利，其实还真差不多是这个比例，或者更差些所以一直在思考到底如何投资才能赚钱呢同时是具有长期主义的投资方式呢答案：要具有一个正向良性的投资方式那应该如何做到呢 ？首先需要拥有一个好的投资价值观，在保住自己本金的情况下，再谈收益一，分散配置全球最核心资产进来股票市场不要谈什么认知更加不要听小道消息买股票首先第一：踏踏实实买些全球最核心资产例如：苹果，微软，亚马逊腾讯，阿里，美团等等或者直接买基金，例如：伯克希尔，标普500ETF，纳指ETF，恒生科技指数ETF买这些最核心资产，在赚到钱的情况下，再拿盈利，切记是拿盈利，去买自己想要买的股票，或者去投机都好，反正是盈利来的。这样就可以做到一个正向良性的投资方式例如：有20万买个核心组合资产：5万买伯克希尔5万买苹果5万买腾讯5万买恒生科技指数ETF1，如果赚钱了三五个月，或者一年半载之后，这个资产组合赚钱了，例如，变成了12万，盈利了2万，你可以按照比例减持2万，则可以用这2万盈利，按照你的认知，去买你想要买的股票。其实在股票极其诱惑的市场，特别是中小股票，大涨大跌，有些十倍牛股，或者有些暴跌，又想去抄底，例如，近期的滴滴，总有投资者想去博博。但你只能拿盈利去买这些，也就区区2万盈利，如果你很厉害，2万，也可以足以让你赚到更多的钱。当然如果你很快亏掉这2万盈利，那也没事，因为是盈利来的。等后期，你买的核心资产组合又赚到钱了，再拿盈利出来，依然有机会再让你去展示身手的。2，如果亏钱了如果一年半载之后，这个组合配置还是没赚钱，那你就继续踏踏实实持有，一定要沉住气。不过如果有闲钱，也是可以继续加仓配置核心资产。其实如果你买这些最核心资产，都赚不到钱，那买其他股票，只会亏损更多，例如：你买苹果股票都亏损20","listText":"时间真快，从业港股.美股投资服务近10年了，服务的投资者越来越多，发现亏损的投资者也越来越多，10位投资者，7位亏损，2位打平，1位盈利，其实还真差不多是这个比例，或者更差些所以一直在思考到底如何投资才能赚钱呢同时是具有长期主义的投资方式呢答案：要具有一个正向良性的投资方式那应该如何做到呢 ？首先需要拥有一个好的投资价值观，在保住自己本金的情况下，再谈收益一，分散配置全球最核心资产进来股票市场不要谈什么认知更加不要听小道消息买股票首先第一：踏踏实实买些全球最核心资产例如：苹果，微软，亚马逊腾讯，阿里，美团等等或者直接买基金，例如：伯克希尔，标普500ETF，纳指ETF，恒生科技指数ETF买这些最核心资产，在赚到钱的情况下，再拿盈利，切记是拿盈利，去买自己想要买的股票，或者去投机都好，反正是盈利来的。这样就可以做到一个正向良性的投资方式例如：有20万买个核心组合资产：5万买伯克希尔5万买苹果5万买腾讯5万买恒生科技指数ETF1，如果赚钱了三五个月，或者一年半载之后，这个资产组合赚钱了，例如，变成了12万，盈利了2万，你可以按照比例减持2万，则可以用这2万盈利，按照你的认知，去买你想要买的股票。其实在股票极其诱惑的市场，特别是中小股票，大涨大跌，有些十倍牛股，或者有些暴跌，又想去抄底，例如，近期的滴滴，总有投资者想去博博。但你只能拿盈利去买这些，也就区区2万盈利，如果你很厉害，2万，也可以足以让你赚到更多的钱。当然如果你很快亏掉这2万盈利，那也没事，因为是盈利来的。等后期，你买的核心资产组合又赚到钱了，再拿盈利出来，依然有机会再让你去展示身手的。2，如果亏钱了如果一年半载之后，这个组合配置还是没赚钱，那你就继续踏踏实实持有，一定要沉住气。不过如果有闲钱，也是可以继续加仓配置核心资产。其实如果你买这些最核心资产，都赚不到钱，那买其他股票，只会亏损更多，例如：你买苹果股票都亏损20","text":"时间真快，从业港股.美股投资服务近10年了，服务的投资者越来越多，发现亏损的投资者也越来越多，10位投资者，7位亏损，2位打平，1位盈利，其实还真差不多是这个比例，或者更差些所以一直在思考到底如何投资才能赚钱呢同时是具有长期主义的投资方式呢答案：要具有一个正向良性的投资方式那应该如何做到呢 ？首先需要拥有一个好的投资价值观，在保住自己本金的情况下，再谈收益一，分散配置全球最核心资产进来股票市场不要谈什么认知更加不要听小道消息买股票首先第一：踏踏实实买些全球最核心资产例如：苹果，微软，亚马逊腾讯，阿里，美团等等或者直接买基金，例如：伯克希尔，标普500ETF，纳指ETF，恒生科技指数ETF买这些最核心资产，在赚到钱的情况下，再拿盈利，切记是拿盈利，去买自己想要买的股票，或者去投机都好，反正是盈利来的。这样就可以做到一个正向良性的投资方式例如：有20万买个核心组合资产：5万买伯克希尔5万买苹果5万买腾讯5万买恒生科技指数ETF1，如果赚钱了三五个月，或者一年半载之后，这个资产组合赚钱了，例如，变成了12万，盈利了2万，你可以按照比例减持2万，则可以用这2万盈利，按照你的认知，去买你想要买的股票。其实在股票极其诱惑的市场，特别是中小股票，大涨大跌，有些十倍牛股，或者有些暴跌，又想去抄底，例如，近期的滴滴，总有投资者想去博博。但你只能拿盈利去买这些，也就区区2万盈利，如果你很厉害，2万，也可以足以让你赚到更多的钱。当然如果你很快亏掉这2万盈利，那也没事，因为是盈利来的。等后期，你买的核心资产组合又赚到钱了，再拿盈利出来，依然有机会再让你去展示身手的。2，如果亏钱了如果一年半载之后，这个组合配置还是没赚钱，那你就继续踏踏实实持有，一定要沉住气。不过如果有闲钱，也是可以继续加仓配置核心资产。其实如果你买这些最核心资产，都赚不到钱，那买其他股票，只会亏损更多，例如：你买苹果股票都亏损20","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/53ef5d72f98984f6a62ce49e37414b81","width":"1022","height":"338"},{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bc8c23747483490abab3a297949ddb19","width":"1151","height":"437"},{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/89b75fc1478a5c18a68b5ded4cd3be95","width":"1144","height":"355"}],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":2,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/614466258","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":4,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1782,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}
