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某朱
2020-12-16
从月初看崩到现在了 这些巨头做空了吧
抱歉，原内容已删除
某朱
2020-12-16
这些巨头做空了吧
四大催化剂加2.5万亿美元期权，本周“四巫日”太可怕
去老虎APP查看更多动态
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这些巨头做空了吧","listText":"从月初看崩到现在了 这些巨头做空了吧","text":"从月初看崩到现在了 这些巨头做空了吧","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/397093809","repostId":"1147242959","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":787,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":397099413,"gmtCreate":1608127513932,"gmtModify":1703851305052,"author":{"id":"3566875061709494","authorId":"3566875061709494","name":"某朱","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3566875061709494","authorIdStr":"3566875061709494"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"这些巨头做空了吧","listText":"这些巨头做空了吧","text":"这些巨头做空了吧","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/397099413","repostId":"1147242959","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1147242959","pubTimestamp":1608105631,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1147242959?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2020-12-16 16:00","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"四大催化剂加2.5万亿美元期权，本周“四巫日”太可怕","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1147242959","media":"金十数据","summary":"眼前的平静不是真正的平静，交易员们开始害怕崩盘。","content":"<p>作者：肖燕燕</p><p>下一个“四巫日”（期权到期日）即将在12月18日到来。每年12月到期的期权规模都很庞大，今年也不例外：<b>名义价值达2.5万亿美元的SPX相关期权将在12月18日到期。</b>这个规模很大，但对于12月而言，还不算极端。</p><p>前雷曼兄弟（Lehman）外汇交易员、现任彭博市场（Bloomberg Markets Live）宏观策略师马克・库德摩尔（Mark Cudmore）撰文表示，12月迄今的市场平静可能是骗人的，待今年结束时，很多金融资产的价格可能跟现在相差甚远。库德摩尔提醒了四大催化剂：</p><blockquote><b>在进入低流动性节日期间，只有一半的市场力量在发挥作用。这意味着资产极易受到今年最终一波趋势动作的冲击，其中有一系列已知的催化剂：美联储会议、标准普尔500指数纳入特斯拉、疫情封锁以及年末资金问题。</b></blockquote><p>库德摩尔称，对于2021年想要持有什么头寸这个问题，现在交易员们的想法出奇一致，但他们采取行动的能力却高低各不同，可以驱动市场的人不多。</p><p>他表示，<b>几乎每个人明年都想做多股票和大宗商品，同时做空美元。</b>然而，11月的极端波动让交易员们被划分为两个完全不同的阵营。</p><p>阵营一，那些错过了大行情的人。他们已经没有过多的资金可以入场，思想上也不太自信。他们现在不会采取行动或者不会采取太多行动，无论如何会等到新的一年到来再说。</p><p>这批人中大部分都相信一个长期主题：央行释放的流动性将继续推高资产价格。</p><p>阵营二：之前赚到钱的胜利者。这些人专注于政策驱动的资产价格上涨主题，在金融市场疯狂掠夺。</p><p>他们持有中期仓位，资本足以驱动市场。他们认为股票会再创新高，而美元加速下跌会刺激他们进一步加仓而非减仓。但如果风向逆转，他们也会大量抛售，集中套现，因为锁定利润的道理才是亘古不变的。</p><p>野村的证券跨资产策略师Charlie McElligott近日也发出了与库德摩尔同样的提醒。</p><p>McElligott分析称，<b>之前的资金是因为“害怕错过上涨”（crash-up FOMO）而对冲，但现在已经转成为真正的“崩盘”（crash-down）而对冲。</b></p><p>在本周的四巫日之前，并结合最近的隐含波动率压缩现象，McElligott发现SPX的波动性实现了下降，而且降幅很大：5日历史波动性为5.1，10日历史波动性为7.6，20日历史波动性为11。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4f6fbf9ffde170404dae73914a676f28\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"240\"></p><p>究其原因，有五个：</p><p>1. 大选后混乱局面持续以及随之而来的对冲平仓；</p><p>2. 市场提前炒作 “疫苗通货膨胀/经济正常化”；</p><p>3. “跛脚鸭时期”达成财政刺激协议的可能性上升；</p><p>4. 第四季度存在“追逐风险”的季节性；</p><p>5. 从长期增长型股票到周期价值股的轮换。</p><p>所有这些都是抵消和抑制指数水平波动的因素。不过，McElligott指出，真正的大变化是客户的对冲焦点：</p><blockquote>过去几周，客户都是害怕错过上涨，但过去两天，随着本周的期权到期日来临，我们开始看到大家害怕崩盘。</blockquote><p>追踪衍生品的数据公司SpotGamma也发现，Gamma和Delta倾斜指标出现了非常剧烈的逆转，这表明期权结构有所恶化。Delta 和Gamma被用于估算标的资产价格变动导致期权价格变化的大小。</p><p>换言之，<b>期权支撑在崩溃</b>。</p><p>从下图可以看出12月18日到期的SPX期权规模有多大，对于个股而言，大约45%的股票都在12月18日集中了最大的伽马密度，大约25%集中了最大的delta密度。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6fb34ac215b6f8e7a00884d890d7f614\" tg-width=\"800\" tg-height=\"600\"></p><p>事情还没有那么简单，高盛指出，<b>特斯拉被纳入标普500指数（12月21日生效）后，有可能导致该指数的波动性增加1/4个点</b>。据报道，目前未平仓的期权合约中，特斯拉达到惊人的948亿美元！德银最新报告认为：接下来美股的走势，很大程度取决于“特斯拉神话”能否继续。</p><p>当然，以上分析师或机构的结论并非意味着市场一定会遭到抛售，但表明市场会“更容易”被抛售。McElligott还指出，标普500指数若跌破3650，交易商其实会增加抛售。</p>","source":"jssj","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" 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display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n四大催化剂加2.5万亿美元期权，本周“四巫日”太可怕\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2020-12-16 16:00 北京时间 <a href=https://xnews.jin10.com/details/68229><strong>金十数据</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>作者：肖燕燕下一个“四巫日”（期权到期日）即将在12月18日到来。每年12月到期的期权规模都很庞大，今年也不例外：名义价值达2.5万亿美元的SPX相关期权将在12月18日到期。这个规模很大，但对于12月而言，还不算极端。前雷曼兄弟（Lehman）外汇交易员、现任彭博市场（Bloomberg Markets Live）宏观策略师马克・库德摩尔（Mark Cudmore）撰文表示，12月迄今的市场平静...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://xnews.jin10.com/details/68229\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/318dced6c8505427ba4c5a73eb4a7981","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://xnews.jin10.com/details/68229","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1147242959","content_text":"作者：肖燕燕下一个“四巫日”（期权到期日）即将在12月18日到来。每年12月到期的期权规模都很庞大，今年也不例外：名义价值达2.5万亿美元的SPX相关期权将在12月18日到期。这个规模很大，但对于12月而言，还不算极端。前雷曼兄弟（Lehman）外汇交易员、现任彭博市场（Bloomberg Markets Live）宏观策略师马克・库德摩尔（Mark Cudmore）撰文表示，12月迄今的市场平静可能是骗人的，待今年结束时，很多金融资产的价格可能跟现在相差甚远。库德摩尔提醒了四大催化剂：在进入低流动性节日期间，只有一半的市场力量在发挥作用。这意味着资产极易受到今年最终一波趋势动作的冲击，其中有一系列已知的催化剂：美联储会议、标准普尔500指数纳入特斯拉、疫情封锁以及年末资金问题。库德摩尔称，对于2021年想要持有什么头寸这个问题，现在交易员们的想法出奇一致，但他们采取行动的能力却高低各不同，可以驱动市场的人不多。他表示，几乎每个人明年都想做多股票和大宗商品，同时做空美元。然而，11月的极端波动让交易员们被划分为两个完全不同的阵营。阵营一，那些错过了大行情的人。他们已经没有过多的资金可以入场，思想上也不太自信。他们现在不会采取行动或者不会采取太多行动，无论如何会等到新的一年到来再说。这批人中大部分都相信一个长期主题：央行释放的流动性将继续推高资产价格。阵营二：之前赚到钱的胜利者。这些人专注于政策驱动的资产价格上涨主题，在金融市场疯狂掠夺。他们持有中期仓位，资本足以驱动市场。他们认为股票会再创新高，而美元加速下跌会刺激他们进一步加仓而非减仓。但如果风向逆转，他们也会大量抛售，集中套现，因为锁定利润的道理才是亘古不变的。野村的证券跨资产策略师Charlie McElligott近日也发出了与库德摩尔同样的提醒。McElligott分析称，之前的资金是因为“害怕错过上涨”（crash-up FOMO）而对冲，但现在已经转成为真正的“崩盘”（crash-down）而对冲。在本周的四巫日之前，并结合最近的隐含波动率压缩现象，McElligott发现SPX的波动性实现了下降，而且降幅很大：5日历史波动性为5.1，10日历史波动性为7.6，20日历史波动性为11。究其原因，有五个：1. 大选后混乱局面持续以及随之而来的对冲平仓；2. 市场提前炒作 “疫苗通货膨胀/经济正常化”；3. “跛脚鸭时期”达成财政刺激协议的可能性上升；4. 第四季度存在“追逐风险”的季节性；5. 从长期增长型股票到周期价值股的轮换。所有这些都是抵消和抑制指数水平波动的因素。不过，McElligott指出，真正的大变化是客户的对冲焦点：过去几周，客户都是害怕错过上涨，但过去两天，随着本周的期权到期日来临，我们开始看到大家害怕崩盘。追踪衍生品的数据公司SpotGamma也发现，Gamma和Delta倾斜指标出现了非常剧烈的逆转，这表明期权结构有所恶化。Delta 和Gamma被用于估算标的资产价格变动导致期权价格变化的大小。换言之，期权支撑在崩溃。从下图可以看出12月18日到期的SPX期权规模有多大，对于个股而言，大约45%的股票都在12月18日集中了最大的伽马密度，大约25%集中了最大的delta密度。事情还没有那么简单，高盛指出，特斯拉被纳入标普500指数（12月21日生效）后，有可能导致该指数的波动性增加1/4个点。据报道，目前未平仓的期权合约中，特斯拉达到惊人的948亿美元！德银最新报告认为：接下来美股的走势，很大程度取决于“特斯拉神话”能否继续。当然，以上分析师或机构的结论并非意味着市场一定会遭到抛售，但表明市场会“更容易”被抛售。McElligott还指出，标普500指数若跌破3650，交易商其实会增加抛售。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1294,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3527667803686145","authorId":"3527667803686145","name":"社区成长助手","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2b7c7106b5c0c8b0037faa67439d898f","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3527667803686145","authorIdStr":"3527667803686145"},"content":"终于等到了您的初发帖[比心][比心]发帖时关联相关股票或者相关话题，可以获得更多曝光哦～如果您想创作优质文章，请查看老虎社区创作指引","text":"终于等到了您的初发帖[比心][比心]发帖时关联相关股票或者相关话题，可以获得更多曝光哦～如果您想创作优质文章，请查看老虎社区创作指引","html":"终于等到了您的初发帖[比心][比心]发帖时关联相关股票或者相关话题，可以获得更多曝光哦～如果您想创作优质文章，请查看老虎社区创作指引"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":397093809,"gmtCreate":1608127577401,"gmtModify":1703851305912,"author":{"id":"3566875061709494","authorId":"3566875061709494","name":"某朱","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3566875061709494","authorIdStr":"3566875061709494"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"从月初看崩到现在了 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