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How oil soaring to $100 a barrel could be bad for this boom-bust sector and the economy
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2021-03-02
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2021-02-28
$100 by end of year.
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Jones publishes the world’s most trusted business news and financial information in a variety of media.","home_visible":0,"media_name":"Dow Jones","id":"106","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/150f88aa4d182df19190059f4a365e99"},"pubTimestamp":1623452760,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2142744202?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-12 07:06","market":"us","language":"en","title":"How oil soaring to $100 a barrel could be bad for this boom-bust sector and the economy","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2142744202","media":"Dow Jones","summary":"If demand returns to 100 million barrels a day, 'that feels very ominous to me,' debt pro warns.\n\nOi","content":"<blockquote>\n If demand returns to 100 million barrels a day, 'that feels very ominous to me,' debt pro warns.\n</blockquote>\n<p>Oil companies often find religion in the wake of a boom-and-bust cycle, including after last year when crude prices crashed into negative territory for the first time on record.</p>\n<p>But with oil prices recently back near $70 a barrel, and some analysts speculating on the return to $100 during the COVID recovery, investors fear wildcatting and other risky financial behavior by energy companies will make a comeback.</p>\n<p>\"We lost a lot of our weakest companies,\" Andrew Feltus, co-director of high-yield at Amundi US, said of the ripple effects of oil futures going negative in April 2020 as demand collapsed with the first waves of COVID outbreaks and oil-producing giants Saudi Arabia and Russia waged an ugly price war.</p>\n<p>\"No <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE\">one</a> can exist in that type of situation for long,\" Feltus told MarketWatch. \"If you don't have enough money to survive, you are gone.\"</p>\n<p>Company executives took those lessons for the U.S. energy complex to heart after pandemic shutdowns depressed oil demand and, for a period, led to higher borrowing costs in the sector. It also led to greater prudence.</p>\n<p>But there's no telling how long the latest stretch of \"good\" energy company behavior -- actions preferred by their risk-wary lenders and investors -- will last. That's particularly true if prices shoot dramatically higher and breach $100 a barrel.</p>\n<p>As Feltus said, \"$50 oil is the price we want. $70 is just gravy. With $100 oil, they will be dancing in the streets of Dallas.\"</p>\n<p>Prices for U.S. benchmark West Texas Intermediate crude for July delivery were near $70.75 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange on Friday and headed for a weekly rise of about 1.7%.</p>\n<p>This chart tracks the plunge and recovery of WTI since April 2020, with the red line highlighting the stretch in which prices stayed below $40 a barrel.</p>\n<p><b>Keeping up?</b></p>\n<p>Prices saw a boost Friday from the International Energy Agency, which said global oil demand would return to pre-COVID-19 pandemic levels by the end of next year.</p>\n<p>IEA also forecast demand to reach 100.6 million barrels a day by the end of 2022, while indicating that producers will need to boost output to keep up with demand.</p>\n<p>The changing landscape for oil, including the increased focus by investors and the Biden administration on encouraging more environmentally sustainable practices, comes as a U.S. rig count has hovered at about half of pre-COVID levels, said Steve Repoff, portfolio manager at GW&K Investment.</p>\n<p>Read:Climate-change pressure builds on Big Oil after activist wins Exxon board seats, court ruling hits Shell</p>\n<p>But that's not without its own set of concerns as vaccinations in the U.S. increase, demand for oil climbs and the economy opens more broadly, including over the summer. And the post-COVID travel season could turn costly for drivers.</p>\n<p>\"It seems these companies, for now, have demonstrated capital discipline, in a sector notorious for being unable to display capital discipline,\" Repoff told MarketWatch.</p>\n<p>\"But if we see demand of 100 million barrels a day return, that feels very ominous to me,\" he said, adding that it's unclear if U.S. producers will struggle to ramp up production.</p>\n<p>\"What if all the best shale, in aggregate, has been drilled already?\" Repoff said, while explaining how higher oil prices can be good for the oil industry, but also deflationary, even as the Federal Reserve expects the cost of living in America to overshoot its 2% inflation target for awhile during the recovery.</p>\n<p>\"When applied to the broader economy, it's effectively a tax on businesses and consumers, and at the systemwide level is ultimately deflationary,\" Repoff said of booming oil prices.</p>\n<p><b>$100 oil is a mixed blessing</b></p>\n<p>It took no time for COVID shutdowns to rattle the booming U.S. high-yield bond market last year, with defaults quickly jumping to a 10-year high of almost 5% and helping prompt the Fed to launch its first program ever of buying up corporate debt.</p>\n<p>Recently, as the sector has recovered, including with yields on the overall ICE BofA U.S. High Yield Index plunging near all-time lows of 4.1% , the Fed said it would sell its remaining corporate bond exposure.</p>\n<p>As a result, the so-called \"junk-bond\" market ended up with its highest-quality mix of companies by credit rating in at least a decade, but perhaps even 20 to 30 years, according to Feltus at Amundi, even while energy remains the sector's biggest exposure at about 13% of its benchmark high-yield index. That compares with a roughly 3% slice for energy in the S&P 500 index, leaving investors in it grappling with swings in exposure.</p>\n<p>While energy has long been a key part of the U.S. high-yield market, oil booms haven't always been great over the long run for bond investors who help finance the sector.</p>\n<p>\"History says it depends on what else is going on in the market,\" said Marty Fridson, chief investment officer at Lehmann Livian Fridson Advisors, particularly when oil prices rise and fall around times of economic crisis.</p>\n<p>Starting in the summer of 2007, oil prices quickly advanced over eight months from $70.68 on June 29 to $101.84 on Feb. 29, 2008. But when Fridson looked at how the energy component fared over that stretch, it outperformed the ICE BofA US High Yield Index, returning 3.88% compared to negative 3.32%.</p>\n<p>Then, in the more protracted recovery phase, oil went from $70.61 on Sept. 30, 2009, to $96.07 on Feb. 28, 2011, while energy underperformed the index, 23.57% to 26.38%.</p>\n<p>Amundi's Feltus also pointed out that companies \"got religion for like six to 12 months of discipline,\" after each recent oil bust. \"This time breaks the record. But we can't let up the pressure.\"</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>How oil soaring to $100 a barrel could be bad for this boom-bust sector and the economy</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nHow oil soaring to $100 a barrel could be bad for this boom-bust sector and the economy\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<div class=\"head\" \">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/150f88aa4d182df19190059f4a365e99);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Dow Jones </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2021-06-12 07:06</p>\n</div>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<blockquote>\n If demand returns to 100 million barrels a day, 'that feels very ominous to me,' debt pro warns.\n</blockquote>\n<p>Oil companies often find religion in the wake of a boom-and-bust cycle, including after last year when crude prices crashed into negative territory for the first time on record.</p>\n<p>But with oil prices recently back near $70 a barrel, and some analysts speculating on the return to $100 during the COVID recovery, investors fear wildcatting and other risky financial behavior by energy companies will make a comeback.</p>\n<p>\"We lost a lot of our weakest companies,\" Andrew Feltus, co-director of high-yield at Amundi US, said of the ripple effects of oil futures going negative in April 2020 as demand collapsed with the first waves of COVID outbreaks and oil-producing giants Saudi Arabia and Russia waged an ugly price war.</p>\n<p>\"No <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE\">one</a> can exist in that type of situation for long,\" Feltus told MarketWatch. \"If you don't have enough money to survive, you are gone.\"</p>\n<p>Company executives took those lessons for the U.S. energy complex to heart after pandemic shutdowns depressed oil demand and, for a period, led to higher borrowing costs in the sector. It also led to greater prudence.</p>\n<p>But there's no telling how long the latest stretch of \"good\" energy company behavior -- actions preferred by their risk-wary lenders and investors -- will last. That's particularly true if prices shoot dramatically higher and breach $100 a barrel.</p>\n<p>As Feltus said, \"$50 oil is the price we want. $70 is just gravy. With $100 oil, they will be dancing in the streets of Dallas.\"</p>\n<p>Prices for U.S. benchmark West Texas Intermediate crude for July delivery were near $70.75 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange on Friday and headed for a weekly rise of about 1.7%.</p>\n<p>This chart tracks the plunge and recovery of WTI since April 2020, with the red line highlighting the stretch in which prices stayed below $40 a barrel.</p>\n<p><b>Keeping up?</b></p>\n<p>Prices saw a boost Friday from the International Energy Agency, which said global oil demand would return to pre-COVID-19 pandemic levels by the end of next year.</p>\n<p>IEA also forecast demand to reach 100.6 million barrels a day by the end of 2022, while indicating that producers will need to boost output to keep up with demand.</p>\n<p>The changing landscape for oil, including the increased focus by investors and the Biden administration on encouraging more environmentally sustainable practices, comes as a U.S. rig count has hovered at about half of pre-COVID levels, said Steve Repoff, portfolio manager at GW&K Investment.</p>\n<p>Read:Climate-change pressure builds on Big Oil after activist wins Exxon board seats, court ruling hits Shell</p>\n<p>But that's not without its own set of concerns as vaccinations in the U.S. increase, demand for oil climbs and the economy opens more broadly, including over the summer. And the post-COVID travel season could turn costly for drivers.</p>\n<p>\"It seems these companies, for now, have demonstrated capital discipline, in a sector notorious for being unable to display capital discipline,\" Repoff told MarketWatch.</p>\n<p>\"But if we see demand of 100 million barrels a day return, that feels very ominous to me,\" he said, adding that it's unclear if U.S. producers will struggle to ramp up production.</p>\n<p>\"What if all the best shale, in aggregate, has been drilled already?\" Repoff said, while explaining how higher oil prices can be good for the oil industry, but also deflationary, even as the Federal Reserve expects the cost of living in America to overshoot its 2% inflation target for awhile during the recovery.</p>\n<p>\"When applied to the broader economy, it's effectively a tax on businesses and consumers, and at the systemwide level is ultimately deflationary,\" Repoff said of booming oil prices.</p>\n<p><b>$100 oil is a mixed blessing</b></p>\n<p>It took no time for COVID shutdowns to rattle the booming U.S. high-yield bond market last year, with defaults quickly jumping to a 10-year high of almost 5% and helping prompt the Fed to launch its first program ever of buying up corporate debt.</p>\n<p>Recently, as the sector has recovered, including with yields on the overall ICE BofA U.S. High Yield Index plunging near all-time lows of 4.1% , the Fed said it would sell its remaining corporate bond exposure.</p>\n<p>As a result, the so-called \"junk-bond\" market ended up with its highest-quality mix of companies by credit rating in at least a decade, but perhaps even 20 to 30 years, according to Feltus at Amundi, even while energy remains the sector's biggest exposure at about 13% of its benchmark high-yield index. That compares with a roughly 3% slice for energy in the S&P 500 index, leaving investors in it grappling with swings in exposure.</p>\n<p>While energy has long been a key part of the U.S. high-yield market, oil booms haven't always been great over the long run for bond investors who help finance the sector.</p>\n<p>\"History says it depends on what else is going on in the market,\" said Marty Fridson, chief investment officer at Lehmann Livian Fridson Advisors, particularly when oil prices rise and fall around times of economic crisis.</p>\n<p>Starting in the summer of 2007, oil prices quickly advanced over eight months from $70.68 on June 29 to $101.84 on Feb. 29, 2008. But when Fridson looked at how the energy component fared over that stretch, it outperformed the ICE BofA US High Yield Index, returning 3.88% compared to negative 3.32%.</p>\n<p>Then, in the more protracted recovery phase, oil went from $70.61 on Sept. 30, 2009, to $96.07 on Feb. 28, 2011, while energy underperformed the index, 23.57% to 26.38%.</p>\n<p>Amundi's Feltus also pointed out that companies \"got religion for like six to 12 months of discipline,\" after each recent oil bust. \"This time breaks the record. But we can't let up the pressure.\"</p>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","SPY":"标普500ETF",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2142744202","content_text":"If demand returns to 100 million barrels a day, 'that feels very ominous to me,' debt pro warns.\n\nOil companies often find religion in the wake of a boom-and-bust cycle, including after last year when crude prices crashed into negative territory for the first time on record.\nBut with oil prices recently back near $70 a barrel, and some analysts speculating on the return to $100 during the COVID recovery, investors fear wildcatting and other risky financial behavior by energy companies will make a comeback.\n\"We lost a lot of our weakest companies,\" Andrew Feltus, co-director of high-yield at Amundi US, said of the ripple effects of oil futures going negative in April 2020 as demand collapsed with the first waves of COVID outbreaks and oil-producing giants Saudi Arabia and Russia waged an ugly price war.\n\"No one can exist in that type of situation for long,\" Feltus told MarketWatch. \"If you don't have enough money to survive, you are gone.\"\nCompany executives took those lessons for the U.S. energy complex to heart after pandemic shutdowns depressed oil demand and, for a period, led to higher borrowing costs in the sector. It also led to greater prudence.\nBut there's no telling how long the latest stretch of \"good\" energy company behavior -- actions preferred by their risk-wary lenders and investors -- will last. That's particularly true if prices shoot dramatically higher and breach $100 a barrel.\nAs Feltus said, \"$50 oil is the price we want. $70 is just gravy. With $100 oil, they will be dancing in the streets of Dallas.\"\nPrices for U.S. benchmark West Texas Intermediate crude for July delivery were near $70.75 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange on Friday and headed for a weekly rise of about 1.7%.\nThis chart tracks the plunge and recovery of WTI since April 2020, with the red line highlighting the stretch in which prices stayed below $40 a barrel.\nKeeping up?\nPrices saw a boost Friday from the International Energy Agency, which said global oil demand would return to pre-COVID-19 pandemic levels by the end of next year.\nIEA also forecast demand to reach 100.6 million barrels a day by the end of 2022, while indicating that producers will need to boost output to keep up with demand.\nThe changing landscape for oil, including the increased focus by investors and the Biden administration on encouraging more environmentally sustainable practices, comes as a U.S. rig count has hovered at about half of pre-COVID levels, said Steve Repoff, portfolio manager at GW&K Investment.\nRead:Climate-change pressure builds on Big Oil after activist wins Exxon board seats, court ruling hits Shell\nBut that's not without its own set of concerns as vaccinations in the U.S. increase, demand for oil climbs and the economy opens more broadly, including over the summer. And the post-COVID travel season could turn costly for drivers.\n\"It seems these companies, for now, have demonstrated capital discipline, in a sector notorious for being unable to display capital discipline,\" Repoff told MarketWatch.\n\"But if we see demand of 100 million barrels a day return, that feels very ominous to me,\" he said, adding that it's unclear if U.S. producers will struggle to ramp up production.\n\"What if all the best shale, in aggregate, has been drilled already?\" Repoff said, while explaining how higher oil prices can be good for the oil industry, but also deflationary, even as the Federal Reserve expects the cost of living in America to overshoot its 2% inflation target for awhile during the recovery.\n\"When applied to the broader economy, it's effectively a tax on businesses and consumers, and at the systemwide level is ultimately deflationary,\" Repoff said of booming oil prices.\n$100 oil is a mixed blessing\nIt took no time for COVID shutdowns to rattle the booming U.S. high-yield bond market last year, with defaults quickly jumping to a 10-year high of almost 5% and helping prompt the Fed to launch its first program ever of buying up corporate debt.\nRecently, as the sector has recovered, including with yields on the overall ICE BofA U.S. High Yield Index plunging near all-time lows of 4.1% , the Fed said it would sell its remaining corporate bond exposure.\nAs a result, the so-called \"junk-bond\" market ended up with its highest-quality mix of companies by credit rating in at least a decade, but perhaps even 20 to 30 years, according to Feltus at Amundi, even while energy remains the sector's biggest exposure at about 13% of its benchmark high-yield index. That compares with a roughly 3% slice for energy in the S&P 500 index, leaving investors in it grappling with swings in exposure.\nWhile energy has long been a key part of the U.S. high-yield market, oil booms haven't always been great over the long run for bond investors who help finance the sector.\n\"History says it depends on what else is going on in the market,\" said Marty Fridson, chief investment officer at Lehmann Livian Fridson Advisors, particularly when oil prices rise and fall around times of economic crisis.\nStarting in the summer of 2007, oil prices quickly advanced over eight months from $70.68 on June 29 to $101.84 on Feb. 29, 2008. But when Fridson looked at how the energy component fared over that stretch, it outperformed the ICE BofA US High Yield Index, returning 3.88% compared to negative 3.32%.\nThen, in the more protracted recovery phase, oil went from $70.61 on Sept. 30, 2009, to $96.07 on Feb. 28, 2011, while energy underperformed the index, 23.57% to 26.38%.\nAmundi's Feltus also pointed out that companies \"got religion for like six to 12 months of discipline,\" after each recent oil bust. \"This time breaks the record. But we can't let up the pressure.\"","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":176,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":365938558,"gmtCreate":1614687853574,"gmtModify":1703479862982,"author":{"id":"3566654636387294","authorId":"3566654636387294","name":"Finvest","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c71e215830b0cd46a3c97d67f6c243b0","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3566654636387294","authorIdStr":"3566654636387294"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"[强] ","listText":"[强] ","text":"[强]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/365938558","repostId":"1166432321","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":338,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":366649687,"gmtCreate":1614479113449,"gmtModify":1703477724454,"author":{"id":"3566654636387294","authorId":"3566654636387294","name":"Finvest","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c71e215830b0cd46a3c97d67f6c243b0","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3566654636387294","authorIdStr":"3566654636387294"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"$100 by end of year.","listText":"$100 by end of year.","text":"$100 by end of year.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/366649687","repostId":"1137629357","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":169,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":366654418,"gmtCreate":1614478886134,"gmtModify":1703477720731,"author":{"id":"3566654636387294","authorId":"3566654636387294","name":"Finvest","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c71e215830b0cd46a3c97d67f6c243b0","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3566654636387294","authorIdStr":"3566654636387294"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"[强] [OK] ","listText":"[强] [OK] ","text":"[强] [OK]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/366654418","repostId":"1184424577","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":146,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":366654030,"gmtCreate":1614478770920,"gmtModify":1703477719876,"author":{"id":"3566654636387294","authorId":"3566654636387294","name":"Finvest","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c71e215830b0cd46a3c97d67f6c243b0","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3566654636387294","authorIdStr":"3566654636387294"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"[强] [OK] ","listText":"[强] [OK] ","text":"[强] [OK]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/366654030","repostId":"1184424577","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":214,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":366654418,"gmtCreate":1614478886134,"gmtModify":1703477720731,"author":{"id":"3566654636387294","authorId":"3566654636387294","name":"Finvest","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c71e215830b0cd46a3c97d67f6c243b0","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3566654636387294","authorIdStr":"3566654636387294"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"[强] [OK] ","listText":"[强] [OK] ","text":"[强] [OK]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/366654418","repostId":"1184424577","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":146,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":182960855,"gmtCreate":1623550827477,"gmtModify":1634031891580,"author":{"id":"3566654636387294","authorId":"3566654636387294","name":"Finvest","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c71e215830b0cd46a3c97d67f6c243b0","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3566654636387294","authorIdStr":"3566654636387294"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Nice","listText":"Nice","text":"Nice","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/182960855","repostId":"1138970454","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":218,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":366649687,"gmtCreate":1614479113449,"gmtModify":1703477724454,"author":{"id":"3566654636387294","authorId":"3566654636387294","name":"Finvest","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c71e215830b0cd46a3c97d67f6c243b0","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3566654636387294","authorIdStr":"3566654636387294"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"$100 by end of year.","listText":"$100 by end of year.","text":"$100 by end of year.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/366649687","repostId":"1137629357","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1137629357","pubTimestamp":1614310123,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1137629357?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-02-26 11:28","market":"fut","language":"en","title":"How High Can Oil Really Go?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1137629357","media":"Oilprice","summary":"Oil price revisions started cautiously: some banks saw Brent crude averaging $65 a barrel this year,","content":"<p>Oil price revisions started cautiously: some banks saw Brent crude averaging $65 a barrel this year, and others, of a bolder nature, predicted that the oil benchmark could climb to $65 a barrel.Just a couple of months ago, these forecasts sounded pretty optimistic for the environment, given the slow rollout of Covid-19 vaccines, the continuing excess supply of oil, and reports of coronavirus variants emerging in different parts of the world, threatening new infection waves.</p>\n<p>Now, banks and traders are talking about Brent at $100 a barrel. Of course, a big reason for this is the slump in U.S. oil production caused by the Texas Freeze earlier this month. It was even greater than the production decline prompted by the pandemic last year, and it will take a while to recover—if it ever does fully.</p>\n<p>Yet demand has also been recovering steadily in some key markets, most notably in China. This recovery has largely offset slow-to-return demand for oil in other large consumers such as the United States and helped push prices higher.</p>\n<p>Then, of course, there has been government stimulus poured into economies around the world in response to the crisis. Trillions of dollars have sunk into businesses and households in hopes this will help set GDP back on the growth path sooner rather than later. Once again, the U.S. has been crucial for the change in oil sentiment: oil price forecast revisions were quick to follow President Joe Biden’s proposal of a $1.9-trillion stimulus package.</p>\n<p>The package is still being debated, and it might end up smaller than originally proposed. But when it comes to oil, it has done its job. Banks, the Fed, and the Treasury Department all expect a swift economic recovery due to this stimulus, and a swift recovery will invariably include a rebound in oil demand as people start traveling more.</p>\n<p>Meanwhile, global oil stocks are on the decline, even if not all the reasons for that are clear. The<i>Wall Street Journal</i> recently wrote an analysis of the so-called missing barrels, or barrels of oil that somehow slip under the radar of inventory trackers and that last year reached a record high of 68 percent of an estimate global inventory increase totaling 1.39 billion barrels.Outside the mystery of the missing barrels, OPEC+ efforts in production cutting have been fruitful, and U.S. shale producers have this time round been cautious about returning to a growth mode, not least because of oil prices.</p>\n<p>In this context, it is not at all surprising that earlier this week that Bank of America,Socar Trading, and Energy Aspects all said Brent could rise to $100 over the next two years. According to Socar Trading—Azerbaijan’s oil marketing company—prices are up on the rebalancing fundamentals, and by the summer, Brent could hit $80 a barrel. As supply remains tight, it could climb further to $100 a barrel, the company’s chief trading officer Hayal Ahmadzada told Bloomberg.</p>\n<p>Energy Aspects Amrita Sen, on the other hand, cited economic stimulus as chief reason for the expected price rally.</p>\n<p>“It’s a futures market, we always discount stuff that’s going to happen in the future, now. That’s why prices are rallying right now,” Sen said, speaking on Bloomberg Surveillance. “We’ve always called for $80 plus oil in 2022. Maybe that is $100 now given how much liquidity there is in the system. I wouldn’t rule that out,” she added.</p>\n<p>Of course, the expectations of a demand rebound have yet to materialize outside China, and then there is the question of additional barrels coming soon from Saudi Arabia, maybe Russia, and likely Iran. With U.S. production still depressed, these may not affect prices right away. But a few million barrels daily more will certainly exert some pressure.</p>\n<p>Then there is the latest from OPEC: the cartel is set to discuss a group increase in production in addition to Saudi Arabia removing its voluntary 1-million-bpd cut from March. The increase, however, will be modest, if agreed, at 500,000 bpd. This is the same amount of production OPEC+ brought back online in January, reducing its overall cut by 7.2 million bpd, excluding Saudi Arabia’s unilateral additional cut.</p>\n<p>This means that come April, the group could be pumping 1.5 million bpd more than it is pumping now, and this is not including the possible return of Iranian barrels to the market. This may interfere with immediate price expectations, but by next year, the effects of underinvestment in new production will become more obvious, spurring prices higher.</p>","source":"lsy1606109400967","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>How High Can Oil Really Go?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nHow High Can Oil Really Go?\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-02-26 11:28 GMT+8 <a href=https://oilprice.com/Energy/Oil-Prices/How-High-Can-Oil-Really-Go.html><strong>Oilprice</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Oil price revisions started cautiously: some banks saw Brent crude averaging $65 a barrel this year, and others, of a bolder nature, predicted that the oil benchmark could climb to $65 a barrel.Just a...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://oilprice.com/Energy/Oil-Prices/How-High-Can-Oil-Really-Go.html\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"https://oilprice.com/Energy/Oil-Prices/How-High-Can-Oil-Really-Go.html","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1137629357","content_text":"Oil price revisions started cautiously: some banks saw Brent crude averaging $65 a barrel this year, and others, of a bolder nature, predicted that the oil benchmark could climb to $65 a barrel.Just a couple of months ago, these forecasts sounded pretty optimistic for the environment, given the slow rollout of Covid-19 vaccines, the continuing excess supply of oil, and reports of coronavirus variants emerging in different parts of the world, threatening new infection waves.\nNow, banks and traders are talking about Brent at $100 a barrel. Of course, a big reason for this is the slump in U.S. oil production caused by the Texas Freeze earlier this month. It was even greater than the production decline prompted by the pandemic last year, and it will take a while to recover—if it ever does fully.\nYet demand has also been recovering steadily in some key markets, most notably in China. This recovery has largely offset slow-to-return demand for oil in other large consumers such as the United States and helped push prices higher.\nThen, of course, there has been government stimulus poured into economies around the world in response to the crisis. Trillions of dollars have sunk into businesses and households in hopes this will help set GDP back on the growth path sooner rather than later. Once again, the U.S. has been crucial for the change in oil sentiment: oil price forecast revisions were quick to follow President Joe Biden’s proposal of a $1.9-trillion stimulus package.\nThe package is still being debated, and it might end up smaller than originally proposed. But when it comes to oil, it has done its job. Banks, the Fed, and the Treasury Department all expect a swift economic recovery due to this stimulus, and a swift recovery will invariably include a rebound in oil demand as people start traveling more.\nMeanwhile, global oil stocks are on the decline, even if not all the reasons for that are clear. TheWall Street Journal recently wrote an analysis of the so-called missing barrels, or barrels of oil that somehow slip under the radar of inventory trackers and that last year reached a record high of 68 percent of an estimate global inventory increase totaling 1.39 billion barrels.Outside the mystery of the missing barrels, OPEC+ efforts in production cutting have been fruitful, and U.S. shale producers have this time round been cautious about returning to a growth mode, not least because of oil prices.\nIn this context, it is not at all surprising that earlier this week that Bank of America,Socar Trading, and Energy Aspects all said Brent could rise to $100 over the next two years. According to Socar Trading—Azerbaijan’s oil marketing company—prices are up on the rebalancing fundamentals, and by the summer, Brent could hit $80 a barrel. As supply remains tight, it could climb further to $100 a barrel, the company’s chief trading officer Hayal Ahmadzada told Bloomberg.\nEnergy Aspects Amrita Sen, on the other hand, cited economic stimulus as chief reason for the expected price rally.\n“It’s a futures market, we always discount stuff that’s going to happen in the future, now. That’s why prices are rallying right now,” Sen said, speaking on Bloomberg Surveillance. “We’ve always called for $80 plus oil in 2022. Maybe that is $100 now given how much liquidity there is in the system. I wouldn’t rule that out,” she added.\nOf course, the expectations of a demand rebound have yet to materialize outside China, and then there is the question of additional barrels coming soon from Saudi Arabia, maybe Russia, and likely Iran. With U.S. production still depressed, these may not affect prices right away. But a few million barrels daily more will certainly exert some pressure.\nThen there is the latest from OPEC: the cartel is set to discuss a group increase in production in addition to Saudi Arabia removing its voluntary 1-million-bpd cut from March. The increase, however, will be modest, if agreed, at 500,000 bpd. This is the same amount of production OPEC+ brought back online in January, reducing its overall cut by 7.2 million bpd, excluding Saudi Arabia’s unilateral additional cut.\nThis means that come April, the group could be pumping 1.5 million bpd more than it is pumping now, and this is not including the possible return of Iranian barrels to the market. This may interfere with immediate price expectations, but by next year, the effects of underinvestment in new production will become more obvious, spurring prices higher.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":169,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":186820819,"gmtCreate":1623485676731,"gmtModify":1634032465523,"author":{"id":"3566654636387294","authorId":"3566654636387294","name":"Finvest","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c71e215830b0cd46a3c97d67f6c243b0","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3566654636387294","authorIdStr":"3566654636387294"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Wow","listText":"Wow","text":"Wow","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/186820819","repostId":"2142744202","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2142744202","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Dow Jones publishes the world’s most trusted business news and financial information in a variety of media.","home_visible":0,"media_name":"Dow Jones","id":"106","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/150f88aa4d182df19190059f4a365e99"},"pubTimestamp":1623452760,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2142744202?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-12 07:06","market":"us","language":"en","title":"How oil soaring to $100 a barrel could be bad for this boom-bust sector and the economy","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2142744202","media":"Dow Jones","summary":"If demand returns to 100 million barrels a day, 'that feels very ominous to me,' debt pro warns.\n\nOi","content":"<blockquote>\n If demand returns to 100 million barrels a day, 'that feels very ominous to me,' debt pro warns.\n</blockquote>\n<p>Oil companies often find religion in the wake of a boom-and-bust cycle, including after last year when crude prices crashed into negative territory for the first time on record.</p>\n<p>But with oil prices recently back near $70 a barrel, and some analysts speculating on the return to $100 during the COVID recovery, investors fear wildcatting and other risky financial behavior by energy companies will make a comeback.</p>\n<p>\"We lost a lot of our weakest companies,\" Andrew Feltus, co-director of high-yield at Amundi US, said of the ripple effects of oil futures going negative in April 2020 as demand collapsed with the first waves of COVID outbreaks and oil-producing giants Saudi Arabia and Russia waged an ugly price war.</p>\n<p>\"No <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE\">one</a> can exist in that type of situation for long,\" Feltus told MarketWatch. \"If you don't have enough money to survive, you are gone.\"</p>\n<p>Company executives took those lessons for the U.S. energy complex to heart after pandemic shutdowns depressed oil demand and, for a period, led to higher borrowing costs in the sector. It also led to greater prudence.</p>\n<p>But there's no telling how long the latest stretch of \"good\" energy company behavior -- actions preferred by their risk-wary lenders and investors -- will last. That's particularly true if prices shoot dramatically higher and breach $100 a barrel.</p>\n<p>As Feltus said, \"$50 oil is the price we want. $70 is just gravy. With $100 oil, they will be dancing in the streets of Dallas.\"</p>\n<p>Prices for U.S. benchmark West Texas Intermediate crude for July delivery were near $70.75 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange on Friday and headed for a weekly rise of about 1.7%.</p>\n<p>This chart tracks the plunge and recovery of WTI since April 2020, with the red line highlighting the stretch in which prices stayed below $40 a barrel.</p>\n<p><b>Keeping up?</b></p>\n<p>Prices saw a boost Friday from the International Energy Agency, which said global oil demand would return to pre-COVID-19 pandemic levels by the end of next year.</p>\n<p>IEA also forecast demand to reach 100.6 million barrels a day by the end of 2022, while indicating that producers will need to boost output to keep up with demand.</p>\n<p>The changing landscape for oil, including the increased focus by investors and the Biden administration on encouraging more environmentally sustainable practices, comes as a U.S. rig count has hovered at about half of pre-COVID levels, said Steve Repoff, portfolio manager at GW&K Investment.</p>\n<p>Read:Climate-change pressure builds on Big Oil after activist wins Exxon board seats, court ruling hits Shell</p>\n<p>But that's not without its own set of concerns as vaccinations in the U.S. increase, demand for oil climbs and the economy opens more broadly, including over the summer. And the post-COVID travel season could turn costly for drivers.</p>\n<p>\"It seems these companies, for now, have demonstrated capital discipline, in a sector notorious for being unable to display capital discipline,\" Repoff told MarketWatch.</p>\n<p>\"But if we see demand of 100 million barrels a day return, that feels very ominous to me,\" he said, adding that it's unclear if U.S. producers will struggle to ramp up production.</p>\n<p>\"What if all the best shale, in aggregate, has been drilled already?\" Repoff said, while explaining how higher oil prices can be good for the oil industry, but also deflationary, even as the Federal Reserve expects the cost of living in America to overshoot its 2% inflation target for awhile during the recovery.</p>\n<p>\"When applied to the broader economy, it's effectively a tax on businesses and consumers, and at the systemwide level is ultimately deflationary,\" Repoff said of booming oil prices.</p>\n<p><b>$100 oil is a mixed blessing</b></p>\n<p>It took no time for COVID shutdowns to rattle the booming U.S. high-yield bond market last year, with defaults quickly jumping to a 10-year high of almost 5% and helping prompt the Fed to launch its first program ever of buying up corporate debt.</p>\n<p>Recently, as the sector has recovered, including with yields on the overall ICE BofA U.S. High Yield Index plunging near all-time lows of 4.1% , the Fed said it would sell its remaining corporate bond exposure.</p>\n<p>As a result, the so-called \"junk-bond\" market ended up with its highest-quality mix of companies by credit rating in at least a decade, but perhaps even 20 to 30 years, according to Feltus at Amundi, even while energy remains the sector's biggest exposure at about 13% of its benchmark high-yield index. That compares with a roughly 3% slice for energy in the S&P 500 index, leaving investors in it grappling with swings in exposure.</p>\n<p>While energy has long been a key part of the U.S. high-yield market, oil booms haven't always been great over the long run for bond investors who help finance the sector.</p>\n<p>\"History says it depends on what else is going on in the market,\" said Marty Fridson, chief investment officer at Lehmann Livian Fridson Advisors, particularly when oil prices rise and fall around times of economic crisis.</p>\n<p>Starting in the summer of 2007, oil prices quickly advanced over eight months from $70.68 on June 29 to $101.84 on Feb. 29, 2008. But when Fridson looked at how the energy component fared over that stretch, it outperformed the ICE BofA US High Yield Index, returning 3.88% compared to negative 3.32%.</p>\n<p>Then, in the more protracted recovery phase, oil went from $70.61 on Sept. 30, 2009, to $96.07 on Feb. 28, 2011, while energy underperformed the index, 23.57% to 26.38%.</p>\n<p>Amundi's Feltus also pointed out that companies \"got religion for like six to 12 months of discipline,\" after each recent oil bust. \"This time breaks the record. But we can't let up the pressure.\"</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>How oil soaring to $100 a barrel could be bad for this boom-bust sector and the economy</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nHow oil soaring to $100 a barrel could be bad for this boom-bust sector and the economy\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<div class=\"head\" \">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/150f88aa4d182df19190059f4a365e99);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Dow Jones </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2021-06-12 07:06</p>\n</div>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<blockquote>\n If demand returns to 100 million barrels a day, 'that feels very ominous to me,' debt pro warns.\n</blockquote>\n<p>Oil companies often find religion in the wake of a boom-and-bust cycle, including after last year when crude prices crashed into negative territory for the first time on record.</p>\n<p>But with oil prices recently back near $70 a barrel, and some analysts speculating on the return to $100 during the COVID recovery, investors fear wildcatting and other risky financial behavior by energy companies will make a comeback.</p>\n<p>\"We lost a lot of our weakest companies,\" Andrew Feltus, co-director of high-yield at Amundi US, said of the ripple effects of oil futures going negative in April 2020 as demand collapsed with the first waves of COVID outbreaks and oil-producing giants Saudi Arabia and Russia waged an ugly price war.</p>\n<p>\"No <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE\">one</a> can exist in that type of situation for long,\" Feltus told MarketWatch. \"If you don't have enough money to survive, you are gone.\"</p>\n<p>Company executives took those lessons for the U.S. energy complex to heart after pandemic shutdowns depressed oil demand and, for a period, led to higher borrowing costs in the sector. It also led to greater prudence.</p>\n<p>But there's no telling how long the latest stretch of \"good\" energy company behavior -- actions preferred by their risk-wary lenders and investors -- will last. That's particularly true if prices shoot dramatically higher and breach $100 a barrel.</p>\n<p>As Feltus said, \"$50 oil is the price we want. $70 is just gravy. With $100 oil, they will be dancing in the streets of Dallas.\"</p>\n<p>Prices for U.S. benchmark West Texas Intermediate crude for July delivery were near $70.75 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange on Friday and headed for a weekly rise of about 1.7%.</p>\n<p>This chart tracks the plunge and recovery of WTI since April 2020, with the red line highlighting the stretch in which prices stayed below $40 a barrel.</p>\n<p><b>Keeping up?</b></p>\n<p>Prices saw a boost Friday from the International Energy Agency, which said global oil demand would return to pre-COVID-19 pandemic levels by the end of next year.</p>\n<p>IEA also forecast demand to reach 100.6 million barrels a day by the end of 2022, while indicating that producers will need to boost output to keep up with demand.</p>\n<p>The changing landscape for oil, including the increased focus by investors and the Biden administration on encouraging more environmentally sustainable practices, comes as a U.S. rig count has hovered at about half of pre-COVID levels, said Steve Repoff, portfolio manager at GW&K Investment.</p>\n<p>Read:Climate-change pressure builds on Big Oil after activist wins Exxon board seats, court ruling hits Shell</p>\n<p>But that's not without its own set of concerns as vaccinations in the U.S. increase, demand for oil climbs and the economy opens more broadly, including over the summer. And the post-COVID travel season could turn costly for drivers.</p>\n<p>\"It seems these companies, for now, have demonstrated capital discipline, in a sector notorious for being unable to display capital discipline,\" Repoff told MarketWatch.</p>\n<p>\"But if we see demand of 100 million barrels a day return, that feels very ominous to me,\" he said, adding that it's unclear if U.S. producers will struggle to ramp up production.</p>\n<p>\"What if all the best shale, in aggregate, has been drilled already?\" Repoff said, while explaining how higher oil prices can be good for the oil industry, but also deflationary, even as the Federal Reserve expects the cost of living in America to overshoot its 2% inflation target for awhile during the recovery.</p>\n<p>\"When applied to the broader economy, it's effectively a tax on businesses and consumers, and at the systemwide level is ultimately deflationary,\" Repoff said of booming oil prices.</p>\n<p><b>$100 oil is a mixed blessing</b></p>\n<p>It took no time for COVID shutdowns to rattle the booming U.S. high-yield bond market last year, with defaults quickly jumping to a 10-year high of almost 5% and helping prompt the Fed to launch its first program ever of buying up corporate debt.</p>\n<p>Recently, as the sector has recovered, including with yields on the overall ICE BofA U.S. High Yield Index plunging near all-time lows of 4.1% , the Fed said it would sell its remaining corporate bond exposure.</p>\n<p>As a result, the so-called \"junk-bond\" market ended up with its highest-quality mix of companies by credit rating in at least a decade, but perhaps even 20 to 30 years, according to Feltus at Amundi, even while energy remains the sector's biggest exposure at about 13% of its benchmark high-yield index. That compares with a roughly 3% slice for energy in the S&P 500 index, leaving investors in it grappling with swings in exposure.</p>\n<p>While energy has long been a key part of the U.S. high-yield market, oil booms haven't always been great over the long run for bond investors who help finance the sector.</p>\n<p>\"History says it depends on what else is going on in the market,\" said Marty Fridson, chief investment officer at Lehmann Livian Fridson Advisors, particularly when oil prices rise and fall around times of economic crisis.</p>\n<p>Starting in the summer of 2007, oil prices quickly advanced over eight months from $70.68 on June 29 to $101.84 on Feb. 29, 2008. But when Fridson looked at how the energy component fared over that stretch, it outperformed the ICE BofA US High Yield Index, returning 3.88% compared to negative 3.32%.</p>\n<p>Then, in the more protracted recovery phase, oil went from $70.61 on Sept. 30, 2009, to $96.07 on Feb. 28, 2011, while energy underperformed the index, 23.57% to 26.38%.</p>\n<p>Amundi's Feltus also pointed out that companies \"got religion for like six to 12 months of discipline,\" after each recent oil bust. \"This time breaks the record. But we can't let up the pressure.\"</p>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","SPY":"标普500ETF",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2142744202","content_text":"If demand returns to 100 million barrels a day, 'that feels very ominous to me,' debt pro warns.\n\nOil companies often find religion in the wake of a boom-and-bust cycle, including after last year when crude prices crashed into negative territory for the first time on record.\nBut with oil prices recently back near $70 a barrel, and some analysts speculating on the return to $100 during the COVID recovery, investors fear wildcatting and other risky financial behavior by energy companies will make a comeback.\n\"We lost a lot of our weakest companies,\" Andrew Feltus, co-director of high-yield at Amundi US, said of the ripple effects of oil futures going negative in April 2020 as demand collapsed with the first waves of COVID outbreaks and oil-producing giants Saudi Arabia and Russia waged an ugly price war.\n\"No one can exist in that type of situation for long,\" Feltus told MarketWatch. \"If you don't have enough money to survive, you are gone.\"\nCompany executives took those lessons for the U.S. energy complex to heart after pandemic shutdowns depressed oil demand and, for a period, led to higher borrowing costs in the sector. It also led to greater prudence.\nBut there's no telling how long the latest stretch of \"good\" energy company behavior -- actions preferred by their risk-wary lenders and investors -- will last. That's particularly true if prices shoot dramatically higher and breach $100 a barrel.\nAs Feltus said, \"$50 oil is the price we want. $70 is just gravy. With $100 oil, they will be dancing in the streets of Dallas.\"\nPrices for U.S. benchmark West Texas Intermediate crude for July delivery were near $70.75 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange on Friday and headed for a weekly rise of about 1.7%.\nThis chart tracks the plunge and recovery of WTI since April 2020, with the red line highlighting the stretch in which prices stayed below $40 a barrel.\nKeeping up?\nPrices saw a boost Friday from the International Energy Agency, which said global oil demand would return to pre-COVID-19 pandemic levels by the end of next year.\nIEA also forecast demand to reach 100.6 million barrels a day by the end of 2022, while indicating that producers will need to boost output to keep up with demand.\nThe changing landscape for oil, including the increased focus by investors and the Biden administration on encouraging more environmentally sustainable practices, comes as a U.S. rig count has hovered at about half of pre-COVID levels, said Steve Repoff, portfolio manager at GW&K Investment.\nRead:Climate-change pressure builds on Big Oil after activist wins Exxon board seats, court ruling hits Shell\nBut that's not without its own set of concerns as vaccinations in the U.S. increase, demand for oil climbs and the economy opens more broadly, including over the summer. And the post-COVID travel season could turn costly for drivers.\n\"It seems these companies, for now, have demonstrated capital discipline, in a sector notorious for being unable to display capital discipline,\" Repoff told MarketWatch.\n\"But if we see demand of 100 million barrels a day return, that feels very ominous to me,\" he said, adding that it's unclear if U.S. producers will struggle to ramp up production.\n\"What if all the best shale, in aggregate, has been drilled already?\" Repoff said, while explaining how higher oil prices can be good for the oil industry, but also deflationary, even as the Federal Reserve expects the cost of living in America to overshoot its 2% inflation target for awhile during the recovery.\n\"When applied to the broader economy, it's effectively a tax on businesses and consumers, and at the systemwide level is ultimately deflationary,\" Repoff said of booming oil prices.\n$100 oil is a mixed blessing\nIt took no time for COVID shutdowns to rattle the booming U.S. high-yield bond market last year, with defaults quickly jumping to a 10-year high of almost 5% and helping prompt the Fed to launch its first program ever of buying up corporate debt.\nRecently, as the sector has recovered, including with yields on the overall ICE BofA U.S. High Yield Index plunging near all-time lows of 4.1% , the Fed said it would sell its remaining corporate bond exposure.\nAs a result, the so-called \"junk-bond\" market ended up with its highest-quality mix of companies by credit rating in at least a decade, but perhaps even 20 to 30 years, according to Feltus at Amundi, even while energy remains the sector's biggest exposure at about 13% of its benchmark high-yield index. That compares with a roughly 3% slice for energy in the S&P 500 index, leaving investors in it grappling with swings in exposure.\nWhile energy has long been a key part of the U.S. high-yield market, oil booms haven't always been great over the long run for bond investors who help finance the sector.\n\"History says it depends on what else is going on in the market,\" said Marty Fridson, chief investment officer at Lehmann Livian Fridson Advisors, particularly when oil prices rise and fall around times of economic crisis.\nStarting in the summer of 2007, oil prices quickly advanced over eight months from $70.68 on June 29 to $101.84 on Feb. 29, 2008. But when Fridson looked at how the energy component fared over that stretch, it outperformed the ICE BofA US High Yield Index, returning 3.88% compared to negative 3.32%.\nThen, in the more protracted recovery phase, oil went from $70.61 on Sept. 30, 2009, to $96.07 on Feb. 28, 2011, while energy underperformed the index, 23.57% to 26.38%.\nAmundi's Feltus also pointed out that companies \"got religion for like six to 12 months of discipline,\" after each recent oil bust. \"This time breaks the record. But we can't let up the pressure.\"","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":176,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":365938558,"gmtCreate":1614687853574,"gmtModify":1703479862982,"author":{"id":"3566654636387294","authorId":"3566654636387294","name":"Finvest","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c71e215830b0cd46a3c97d67f6c243b0","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3566654636387294","authorIdStr":"3566654636387294"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"[强] ","listText":"[强] ","text":"[强]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/365938558","repostId":"1166432321","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1166432321","pubTimestamp":1614654687,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1166432321?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-03-02 11:11","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Oil Sinks Toward $60 Before OPEC+ Meets to Decide on Supplies","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1166432321","media":"Bloomberg","summary":"(Bloomberg) -- Oil’s impressive 2021 rally is coming unstuck just days before OPEC+ meets to decide ","content":"<p>(Bloomberg) -- Oil’s impressive 2021 rally is coming unstuck just days before OPEC+ meets to decide just how much crude it should return to the market.</p><p>Futures in New York sank below $60 a barrel, dropping for a third day to head for the longest losing run since December. The alliance gathers on Thursday to decide on easing supply curbs after prices posted their best ever start to a year before the current skid. Ahead of the gathering, Saudi Arabia has urged members to take a cautious approach even as signs of tightening emerge.</p><p>Crude roared higher in the opening two months of 2021, aided by the deep OPEC+ supply cuts, which include unilateral reductions by the Saudis. The roll-out of vaccines and an investor charge into commodities has also underpinned the gains, which pushed prices in New York to the highest close since 2019.</p><p>Investors are “a little bit unsure whether OPEC will continue with the support they provided over the last few months with the supply cuts,” said Daniel Hynes, a senior commodity strategist at Australia & New Zealand Banking Group Ltd. If there’s a higher-than-expected increase, that could make things difficult in the short term given demand is still showing signs of fragility, he said.</p><p>The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies must decide how much output gets restored -- and at what pace -- with current reductions amounting to just over 7 million barrels a day, or 7% of global supply. Citigroup Inc. thinks the coalition will boost output by about 500,000 barrels a day next month, with Saudi Arabia unlikely to continue its voluntary curbs.</p><p>Brent’s prompt timespread was 67 cents a barrel in backwardation on Tuesday. While that’s a bullish structure -- with near-dated prices above later-dated ones -- it’s the lowest reading since mid-February.</p><p>OPEC+ still has plenty of scope to restore production, according to Goldman Sachs Group Inc., which estimates there’s a “massive” deficit of 2 million barrels per day at present. The pace of draws during the recovery will likely outstrip the group’s ability to ramp up, the bank warned in a March 1 report.</p><p>As OPEC+ weighs it decision, group leaders Saudi Arabia and Russia need to judge the likely response by U.S. shale producers. While most big publicly traded explorers in the U.S. are planning to keep output flat, smaller, private companies are seeking to grow supply after this year’s rally.</p><p>The runway to the Thursday’s full OPEC+ meeting starts later Tuesday with the group’s Joint Technical Committee gathering. The JTC’s role is to review the market conditions and members’ conformity with supply agreements.</p><p>While the pandemic has eased as a concern for investors in 2021, with vaccination campaigns under way, the World Health Organization warned on Monday the threat remains. Global cases rose for the first time in almost two months in the past week, WHO officials said at a media briefing.</p>","source":"lsy1584095487587","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Oil Sinks Toward $60 Before OPEC+ Meets to Decide on Supplies</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nOil Sinks Toward $60 Before OPEC+ Meets to Decide on Supplies\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-03-02 11:11 GMT+8 <a href=https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-03-01/old-sinks-toward-60-before-opec-meets-to-decide-on-supplies><strong>Bloomberg</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>(Bloomberg) -- Oil’s impressive 2021 rally is coming unstuck just days before OPEC+ meets to decide just how much crude it should return to the market.Futures in New York sank below $60 a barrel, ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-03-01/old-sinks-toward-60-before-opec-meets-to-decide-on-supplies\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-03-01/old-sinks-toward-60-before-opec-meets-to-decide-on-supplies","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1166432321","content_text":"(Bloomberg) -- Oil’s impressive 2021 rally is coming unstuck just days before OPEC+ meets to decide just how much crude it should return to the market.Futures in New York sank below $60 a barrel, dropping for a third day to head for the longest losing run since December. The alliance gathers on Thursday to decide on easing supply curbs after prices posted their best ever start to a year before the current skid. Ahead of the gathering, Saudi Arabia has urged members to take a cautious approach even as signs of tightening emerge.Crude roared higher in the opening two months of 2021, aided by the deep OPEC+ supply cuts, which include unilateral reductions by the Saudis. The roll-out of vaccines and an investor charge into commodities has also underpinned the gains, which pushed prices in New York to the highest close since 2019.Investors are “a little bit unsure whether OPEC will continue with the support they provided over the last few months with the supply cuts,” said Daniel Hynes, a senior commodity strategist at Australia & New Zealand Banking Group Ltd. If there’s a higher-than-expected increase, that could make things difficult in the short term given demand is still showing signs of fragility, he said.The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies must decide how much output gets restored -- and at what pace -- with current reductions amounting to just over 7 million barrels a day, or 7% of global supply. Citigroup Inc. thinks the coalition will boost output by about 500,000 barrels a day next month, with Saudi Arabia unlikely to continue its voluntary curbs.Brent’s prompt timespread was 67 cents a barrel in backwardation on Tuesday. While that’s a bullish structure -- with near-dated prices above later-dated ones -- it’s the lowest reading since mid-February.OPEC+ still has plenty of scope to restore production, according to Goldman Sachs Group Inc., which estimates there’s a “massive” deficit of 2 million barrels per day at present. The pace of draws during the recovery will likely outstrip the group’s ability to ramp up, the bank warned in a March 1 report.As OPEC+ weighs it decision, group leaders Saudi Arabia and Russia need to judge the likely response by U.S. shale producers. While most big publicly traded explorers in the U.S. are planning to keep output flat, smaller, private companies are seeking to grow supply after this year’s rally.The runway to the Thursday’s full OPEC+ meeting starts later Tuesday with the group’s Joint Technical Committee gathering. The JTC’s role is to review the market conditions and members’ conformity with supply agreements.While the pandemic has eased as a concern for investors in 2021, with vaccination campaigns under way, the World Health Organization warned on Monday the threat remains. Global cases rose for the first time in almost two months in the past week, WHO officials said at a media briefing.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":338,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":366654030,"gmtCreate":1614478770920,"gmtModify":1703477719876,"author":{"id":"3566654636387294","authorId":"3566654636387294","name":"Finvest","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c71e215830b0cd46a3c97d67f6c243b0","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3566654636387294","authorIdStr":"3566654636387294"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"[强] [OK] ","listText":"[强] [OK] ","text":"[强] [OK]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/366654030","repostId":"1184424577","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1184424577","pubTimestamp":1614321674,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1184424577?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-02-26 14:41","market":"fut","language":"en","title":"When Does a Commodities Boom Turn Into a Supercycle?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1184424577","media":"Bloomberg","summary":"A surge in commodity prices has Wall Street banks gearing up for the arrival of what may be a new su","content":"<p>A surge in commodity prices has Wall Street banks gearing up for the arrival of what may be a new supercycle -- an extended period during which demand drives prices well above their long-run trend. A major impetus is the massive stimulus spending by governments as they juice up their economies following pandemic lockdowns. The evidence includes surging copper and agricultural prices and oil back at pre-Covid-19 levels. One theory is that this could be just the start of a yearslong rally in appetite for raw materials across the board, but the reality is more complicated.</p>\n<p><b>1. What is a supercycle?</b></p>\n<p>A sustained spell of abnormally strong demand growth that producers struggle to match, sparking a rally in prices that can last years or in some cases a decade or more. For some analysts, the current rally is rekindling memories of the supercycle seen during China’s rise to economic heavyweight status beginning in the early 2000s. Commodities have experienced three other comparable cycles since the start of the 20th century. U.S. industrialization sparked the first in the early 1900s, global rearmament fueled another in the 1930s and the reindustrialization and reconstruction of Europe and Japan following the Second World War drove a third during the 1950s and 1960s.</p>\n<p><b>2. What did the last one look like?</b></p>\n<p>From around 2002, China entered a phase of roaring economic growth, fueled by a rollout of modern infrastructure and cities on an unprecedented scale. Suppliers struggled to fulfill surging demand for natural resources. In commodities, there’s often a time lag to get the product where it’s wanted since adding capacity, such as opening a new mine, doesn’t happen overnight. For more than a decade, materials including iron ore were in tight supply. Copper, priced below $2,000 a ton for much of the 1990s, broke $10,000 and oil jumped from $20 a barrel to $140.</p>\n<p><b>3. Who says this is another supercycle?</b></p>\n<p>Among the bulls are analysts at JPMorgan Chase & Co. and Goldman Sachs Group Inc.The commodities rally will be a story of a “roaring 20s” post-pandemic economic recovery as well as ultra-loose monetary and fiscal policies, according to JPMorgan. Commodities may also jump as an unintended consequence of the fight against climate change, which threatens to constrain oil supplies while boosting demand for metals needed to build renewable energy infrastructure and manufacture batteries and electric vehicles, it said. Those include cobalt and lithium. Furthermore, commodities are typically viewed as a hedge against inflation, which has become more of a concern among investors.</p>\n<p><b>4. Why might this not be one?</b></p>\n<p>Longer-term trends point to a cooling down for some materials. For example, the energy transition that heralds a bright new age for green metals such as copper would be built on the decline of oil. Even producers of iron ore, the biggest market of mined commodities, expect prices to weaken over time as Chinese demand starts to decline and new supply comes online. It’s an even bleaker outlook for coal, with producers looking to exit the market altogether as the world switches away from the heavy-polluting fuel. Iron ore, coal and oil were the chief beneficiaries of China’s industrial expansion. Those markets dwarf copper in scale.</p>\n<p><b>5. What’s been happening with oil?</b></p>\n<p>Prices collapsed in 2020, even turning negative at one point, but have recovered as demand rebounded more strongly than many had expected. Early in 2021, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies were holding back crude equivalent to about 10% of current global supply. Market fundamentals have shifted, especially in the U.S. with the emergence of shale oil. Haunting traditional producers is the prospect that a prolonged period of high prices would trigger a new flood of supply beyond OPEC’s control. Even so, some oil bulls aren’truling outthe eventual return of prices above $100 a barrel.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/af2a475b86e7eff16a6f86847285fccb\" tg-width=\"1200\" tg-height=\"675\"></p>\n<p><b>6. Which other commodities are rising?</b></p>\n<p>Copper was on a tear in early 2021 thanks to rapidly tightening physical markets as governments plow cash into electric-vehicle infrastructure and renewables. Goldman Sachs,BlackRock Inc.,Citigroup Inc. and Bank of America Corp.saw the metal moving toward all-time highs. While agricultural commodities have their own particular dynamics, soybeans and corn have rallied to multiyear highs, driven by relentless buying from China as it rebuilds its hog herd following a devastating pig disease. Agricultural prices are more dependent on global economic and population growth, rather than the decarbonization trend underpinning excitement in metals.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7bf6587f4a3cc62654a27d305b448e28\" tg-width=\"1200\" tg-height=\"675\"></p>\n<p></p>","source":"lsy1584095487587","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>When Does a Commodities Boom Turn Into a Supercycle?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWhen Does a Commodities Boom Turn Into a Supercycle?\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-02-26 14:41 GMT+8 <a href=https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-02-26/when-does-a-commodities-boom-turn-into-a-supercycle-quicktake><strong>Bloomberg</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>A surge in commodity prices has Wall Street banks gearing up for the arrival of what may be a new supercycle -- an extended period during which demand drives prices well above their long-run trend. A ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-02-26/when-does-a-commodities-boom-turn-into-a-supercycle-quicktake\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-02-26/when-does-a-commodities-boom-turn-into-a-supercycle-quicktake","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1184424577","content_text":"A surge in commodity prices has Wall Street banks gearing up for the arrival of what may be a new supercycle -- an extended period during which demand drives prices well above their long-run trend. A major impetus is the massive stimulus spending by governments as they juice up their economies following pandemic lockdowns. The evidence includes surging copper and agricultural prices and oil back at pre-Covid-19 levels. One theory is that this could be just the start of a yearslong rally in appetite for raw materials across the board, but the reality is more complicated.\n1. What is a supercycle?\nA sustained spell of abnormally strong demand growth that producers struggle to match, sparking a rally in prices that can last years or in some cases a decade or more. For some analysts, the current rally is rekindling memories of the supercycle seen during China’s rise to economic heavyweight status beginning in the early 2000s. Commodities have experienced three other comparable cycles since the start of the 20th century. U.S. industrialization sparked the first in the early 1900s, global rearmament fueled another in the 1930s and the reindustrialization and reconstruction of Europe and Japan following the Second World War drove a third during the 1950s and 1960s.\n2. What did the last one look like?\nFrom around 2002, China entered a phase of roaring economic growth, fueled by a rollout of modern infrastructure and cities on an unprecedented scale. Suppliers struggled to fulfill surging demand for natural resources. In commodities, there’s often a time lag to get the product where it’s wanted since adding capacity, such as opening a new mine, doesn’t happen overnight. For more than a decade, materials including iron ore were in tight supply. Copper, priced below $2,000 a ton for much of the 1990s, broke $10,000 and oil jumped from $20 a barrel to $140.\n3. Who says this is another supercycle?\nAmong the bulls are analysts at JPMorgan Chase & Co. and Goldman Sachs Group Inc.The commodities rally will be a story of a “roaring 20s” post-pandemic economic recovery as well as ultra-loose monetary and fiscal policies, according to JPMorgan. Commodities may also jump as an unintended consequence of the fight against climate change, which threatens to constrain oil supplies while boosting demand for metals needed to build renewable energy infrastructure and manufacture batteries and electric vehicles, it said. Those include cobalt and lithium. Furthermore, commodities are typically viewed as a hedge against inflation, which has become more of a concern among investors.\n4. Why might this not be one?\nLonger-term trends point to a cooling down for some materials. For example, the energy transition that heralds a bright new age for green metals such as copper would be built on the decline of oil. Even producers of iron ore, the biggest market of mined commodities, expect prices to weaken over time as Chinese demand starts to decline and new supply comes online. It’s an even bleaker outlook for coal, with producers looking to exit the market altogether as the world switches away from the heavy-polluting fuel. Iron ore, coal and oil were the chief beneficiaries of China’s industrial expansion. Those markets dwarf copper in scale.\n5. What’s been happening with oil?\nPrices collapsed in 2020, even turning negative at one point, but have recovered as demand rebounded more strongly than many had expected. Early in 2021, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies were holding back crude equivalent to about 10% of current global supply. Market fundamentals have shifted, especially in the U.S. with the emergence of shale oil. Haunting traditional producers is the prospect that a prolonged period of high prices would trigger a new flood of supply beyond OPEC’s control. Even so, some oil bulls aren’truling outthe eventual return of prices above $100 a barrel.\n\n6. Which other commodities are rising?\nCopper was on a tear in early 2021 thanks to rapidly tightening physical markets as governments plow cash into electric-vehicle infrastructure and renewables. Goldman Sachs,BlackRock Inc.,Citigroup Inc. and Bank of America Corp.saw the metal moving toward all-time highs. While agricultural commodities have their own particular dynamics, soybeans and corn have rallied to multiyear highs, driven by relentless buying from China as it rebuilds its hog herd following a devastating pig disease. Agricultural prices are more dependent on global economic and population growth, rather than the decarbonization trend underpinning excitement in metals.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":214,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}
