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2021-11-09

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2021-11-05

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Prediction: These Will Be the 10 Largest Stocks by 2035

2021-11-01

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2021-06-18

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2021-03-12

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@小虎周报:美股料已进入年内二次买入的绝佳时机

2021-03-12

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@许亚鑫:美债大卖！会面实锤！反弹开启！

2021-03-11

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2021-03-11

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2021-03-10

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@遇见阿尔法:WSB重拳出击，GME爆拉202%，惊呆华尔街，还有什么毛票在WSB的watchlist上？

2021-03-10

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2021-03-10

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2021-03-10

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2021-03-05

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2021-03-05

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2021-03-05

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@小虎周报:鲍威尔讲话在即，什么情形下，美债收益率会降下来？

2021-03-05

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@小虎周报:鲍威尔讲话在即，什么情形下，美债收益率会降下来？

2021-03-05

持仓建议，我觉得我说的够多了

2021-03-05

失望

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2021-03-03

$百度(BIDU)$啥时候1股变80啊。？？？我买了，还没变呢？

2021-02-27

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去老虎APP查看更多动态

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They were: 1. <b>General Electric</b>, 2. <b>ExxonMobil</b>, 3. <b>Microsoft</b>, 4. <b>Citigroup</b>, 5. <b>Procter &amp; Gamble</b>, 6. <b>Walmart</b>, 7. <b>Bank of America</b>, 8. <b>Johnson &amp; Johnson</b>, 9. <b>American International Group</b>, and 10. <b>Pfizer</b>.</p>\n<p>Many of those stocks have gone sideways or dropped precipitously over the last 15 years. Microsoft is the sole survivor in the current top 10 list. And it's now the biggest company in the world, with a $2.5 trillion market cap. Apparently, Marc Andreessen was right when he predicted that software will eat the world.</p>\n<p>I believe this trend will continue. And the strongest stocks will be those technology leaders that provide services that humanity deems essential. So here are my picks for the top 10 stocks of 2035.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://g.foolcdn.com/image/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fg.foolcdn.com%2Feditorial%2Fimages%2F647178%2Fgettyimages-625905650.jpg&amp;w=700&amp;op=resize\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"467\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Image source: Getty Images.</span></p>\n<h2>10. Airbnb (current market cap: $110 billion)</h2>\n<p><b>Airbnb </b>(NASDAQ:ABNB) is the smallest stock on this list, and it would probably have to go up at least 30 times in value to make the top 10 of 2035. A 40-bagger or a 50-bagger may even be required to make the list. Could Airbnb pull off this magnificent feat?</p>\n<p>I'm bullish because Airbnb is going after truly massive markets. The company estimates its total addressable market at $3.4 trillion. Most of your large software companies have much smaller market opportunities.</p>\n<p>Airbnb is not selling technology. It's using technology to allow consumers to visit and stay anywhere around the world. Airbnb is revolutionizing how we travel. And because of the network effect, no other tech company will be able to dislodge it from its catbird seat.</p>\n<h2>9. Tesla (current market cap: $1.15 trillion)</h2>\n<p><b>Tesla&nbsp;</b>(NASDAQ:TSLA) is already in the top 10 now. So the question is not whether it can make the top 10 over the next decade and a half, but whether it can stay there. I say it can, because of its dominant mindshare in <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE.U\">one</a> of the most important innovations in the 21st century: the electric car.</p>\n<p>If you look back from now, one thing that struck me is how important oil was. In 1999, the height of the dot-com bubble, <b>ExxonMobil</b>&nbsp;and&nbsp;<b>BP&nbsp;</b>were two of the biggest stocks in the world. When the financial crisis hit in 2009, two more oil stocks joined their ranks:&nbsp;<b>PetroChina&nbsp;</b>and&nbsp;<b>Petrobras</b>.</p>\n<p>All of those stocks have dropped off of today's top 10. I believe oil will continue to recede in importance, and&nbsp;<b>Saudi Aramco&nbsp;</b>will drop out as well. Meanwhile, Tesla will survive and thrive.</p>\n<h2>8. Sea Limited (current market cap: $194 billion)</h2>\n<p>I am perhaps biased in thinking that American companies will continue to dominate the world economy 15 years from now. I am pessimistic on Chinese stocks. But there is a company that is surviving and thriving in Asia. And that is Singapore-based&nbsp;<b>Sea Limited </b>(NYSE:SE).</p>\n<p>Sea has a ferocious appetite for growth. Since its initial public offering in 2017, the stock has gone up 20-fold. Sea has led the way with its freemium model in mobile gaming and its No. 1 game for the smartphone, <i>Free Fire</i>.</p>\n<p>After establishing a gaming foothold in a new market, Sea introduces its shopping platform, Shopee, and its payments arm, SeaMoney. Sea is dominant not just in Asian markets but is also emerging as a winner in South America and India. This is a beautiful tech stock in emerging markets. And I believe Sea is perhaps the only internet company in the world that can give <b>Amazon&nbsp;</b>(NASDAQ:AMZN) a run for its money.</p>\n<h2>7. Apple (current market cap: $2.45 trillion)</h2>\n<p><b>Apple</b> (NASDAQ:AAPL) has a heck of a head start over the rest of the stock universe. Airbnb can go up 20 times in value, and it will still be smaller than Apple is today. It would not surprise me at all, however, if Apple were to lose its top 10 spot over the next decade. Apple makes a lot of money off its App Store and all the fees it charges software companies for access. I think it's likely that Apple will start seeing serious antitrust scrutiny over its business model, similar to what Microsoft saw two decades ago.</p>\n<p>Nonetheless, I remain bullish on Apple and its dominance of consumer hardware. The company's brand power is unrivaled. And if CEO Tim Cook is even half-right about the importance of virtual reality and augmented reality, Apple will cement its top 10 status in the future -- and then some.</p>\n<h2>6. Square (current market cap: $116 billion)</h2>\n<p>I am very bullish on&nbsp;<b>Square&nbsp;</b>(NYSE:SQ). The fintech revolution is in its early days. Square is definitely riding a crypto wave. But the company is also revolutionizing the banking industry. Square has huge informational advantages over traditional banks. The company has so many data points in regard to all the companies in its network. Square also has access to your company's sales numbers and can easily and quickly gauge the risk in making you a loan. This advantage in speed and accuracy over the traditional banks will make Square the biggest financial stock over the next decade and a half.</p>\n<h2>5. Waymo (current market cap: unknown)</h2>\n<p>I believe at some point&nbsp;<b>Alphabet </b>(NASDAQ: GOOG) (NASDAQ:GOOGL) will spin out its autonomous car division, and Waymo will surge past its parent. And while it may have competitors, such as Cruise, a division of <b>General Motors</b>, or perhaps Tesla, I believe Google's AI capabilities will win the day.</p>\n<p>The real competition might not come from the land, but from the air. Electric air taxi service&nbsp;<b>Joby Aviation</b>, with collaborators including <b>Uber</b>, <b>Toyota</b>, and the U.S. Air Force, may ultimately give Waymo a run for its money as ground traffic forces man into the air.</p>\n<h2>4. Shopify (current market cap: $184.98 billion)</h2>\n<p><b>Shopify&nbsp;</b>(NYSE:SHOP) is arguably the most important software company in the world. The company is synonymous with internet commerce and giving small business owners the means and ability to compete with mighty Amazon. Shopify's stock has been ridiculous since its IPO, up almost 6,000% in six years.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5b599764170eebde8b14fa4f1e5932cd\" tg-width=\"720\" tg-height=\"449\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>SHOP data by YCharts</span></p>\n<p>This dramatic rise will continue because Shopify's market opportunity is so gigantic. The retailing market is $25 trillion or so right now. More and more shopping will shift online, and Shopify will be the tech engine that makes this all happen. Shopify may very well pass Amazon in market size one day.</p>\n<h2>3. Nvidia (current market cap: $659.1 billion)</h2>\n<p>While <b>Nvidia </b>(NASDAQ:NVDA) is not yet in the trillion-dollar club, the chipmaker is already one of the 10 largest companies in the world. The company's chips are already key in gaming, mobile, and automotive markets. But it's the company's forays into computer chips for artificial intelligence that caused the stock to shoot into the stratosphere.</p>\n<h2>2. SpaceX (current market cap: unknown)</h2>\n<p>While Elon Musk's space travel company is still private, in its latest funding round the company was valued at $100 billion. Right now the company has two major projects: Starlink and Starship. It's entirely possible that Musk will spin out Starlink as a separate entity. He has said that will do so when its cash flows are more predictable. At a tech conference last year, Musk estimated the market opportunity for putting satellites into space at $3 billion a year, while providing broadband internet would perhaps add another $30 billion in annual revenue.</p>\n<p>It appears to me that SpaceX is now dominating the race for space, and I believe this company will receive crazy valuations if and when it ever comes public. The upside really is unlimited.</p>\n<h2>1. Amazon (current market cap: $1.6 trillion)</h2>\n<p>Amazon is not a sure thing, of course -- no company is. The king of internet retail is facing competition from a sea of mom-and-pop outfits, powered by Shopify. And even Amazon Web Services is facing competitive threats. Amazon is currently dividing its cloud pie with tech giants Alphabet and Microsoft. But perhaps the real competition will come from <b>DigitalOcean</b>, the hugely popular provider of cheap, customer-friendly cloud services.</p>\n<p>Nonetheless, Amazon will adapt and overcome, finding more and more sources of revenue in the future. Outside of Apple, this is the strongest consumer brand on this list. Amazon has powerful mindshare, and its markets are so large, it's unlikely to see much in the way of antitrust scrutiny. This company has perhaps more optionality than any other company in the world. And that's why Amazon is my pick for the No. 1 stock of 2035.</p>","source":"fool_stock","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Prediction: These Will Be the 10 Largest Stocks by 2035</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nPrediction: These Will Be the 10 Largest Stocks by 2035\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-11-04 22:02 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/11/04/prediction-these-will-be-10-largest-stocks-2035/><strong>Motley Fool</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>How in the world can anybody predict the top stocks of 2035?\nWhen developing a potential list, the first thing I did was go backward and look at the top 10 stocks of 2005. They were: 1. General ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/11/04/prediction-these-will-be-10-largest-stocks-2035/\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/11/04/prediction-these-will-be-10-largest-stocks-2035/","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2180579520","content_text":"How in the world can anybody predict the top stocks of 2035?\nWhen developing a potential list, the first thing I did was go backward and look at the top 10 stocks of 2005. They were: 1. General Electric, 2. ExxonMobil, 3. Microsoft, 4. Citigroup, 5. Procter & Gamble, 6. Walmart, 7. Bank of America, 8. Johnson & Johnson, 9. American International Group, and 10. Pfizer.\nMany of those stocks have gone sideways or dropped precipitously over the last 15 years. Microsoft is the sole survivor in the current top 10 list. And it's now the biggest company in the world, with a $2.5 trillion market cap. Apparently, Marc Andreessen was right when he predicted that software will eat the world.\nI believe this trend will continue. And the strongest stocks will be those technology leaders that provide services that humanity deems essential. So here are my picks for the top 10 stocks of 2035.\nImage source: Getty Images.\n10. Airbnb (current market cap: $110 billion)\nAirbnb (NASDAQ:ABNB) is the smallest stock on this list, and it would probably have to go up at least 30 times in value to make the top 10 of 2035. A 40-bagger or a 50-bagger may even be required to make the list. Could Airbnb pull off this magnificent feat?\nI'm bullish because Airbnb is going after truly massive markets. The company estimates its total addressable market at $3.4 trillion. Most of your large software companies have much smaller market opportunities.\nAirbnb is not selling technology. It's using technology to allow consumers to visit and stay anywhere around the world. Airbnb is revolutionizing how we travel. And because of the network effect, no other tech company will be able to dislodge it from its catbird seat.\n9. Tesla (current market cap: $1.15 trillion)\nTesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) is already in the top 10 now. So the question is not whether it can make the top 10 over the next decade and a half, but whether it can stay there. I say it can, because of its dominant mindshare in one of the most important innovations in the 21st century: the electric car.\nIf you look back from now, one thing that struck me is how important oil was. In 1999, the height of the dot-com bubble, ExxonMobil and BP were two of the biggest stocks in the world. When the financial crisis hit in 2009, two more oil stocks joined their ranks: PetroChina and Petrobras.\nAll of those stocks have dropped off of today's top 10. I believe oil will continue to recede in importance, and Saudi Aramco will drop out as well. Meanwhile, Tesla will survive and thrive.\n8. Sea Limited (current market cap: $194 billion)\nI am perhaps biased in thinking that American companies will continue to dominate the world economy 15 years from now. I am pessimistic on Chinese stocks. But there is a company that is surviving and thriving in Asia. And that is Singapore-based Sea Limited (NYSE:SE).\nSea has a ferocious appetite for growth. Since its initial public offering in 2017, the stock has gone up 20-fold. Sea has led the way with its freemium model in mobile gaming and its No. 1 game for the smartphone, Free Fire.\nAfter establishing a gaming foothold in a new market, Sea introduces its shopping platform, Shopee, and its payments arm, SeaMoney. Sea is dominant not just in Asian markets but is also emerging as a winner in South America and India. This is a beautiful tech stock in emerging markets. And I believe Sea is perhaps the only internet company in the world that can give Amazon (NASDAQ:AMZN) a run for its money.\n7. Apple (current market cap: $2.45 trillion)\nApple (NASDAQ:AAPL) has a heck of a head start over the rest of the stock universe. Airbnb can go up 20 times in value, and it will still be smaller than Apple is today. It would not surprise me at all, however, if Apple were to lose its top 10 spot over the next decade. Apple makes a lot of money off its App Store and all the fees it charges software companies for access. I think it's likely that Apple will start seeing serious antitrust scrutiny over its business model, similar to what Microsoft saw two decades ago.\nNonetheless, I remain bullish on Apple and its dominance of consumer hardware. The company's brand power is unrivaled. And if CEO Tim Cook is even half-right about the importance of virtual reality and augmented reality, Apple will cement its top 10 status in the future -- and then some.\n6. Square (current market cap: $116 billion)\nI am very bullish on Square (NYSE:SQ). The fintech revolution is in its early days. Square is definitely riding a crypto wave. But the company is also revolutionizing the banking industry. Square has huge informational advantages over traditional banks. The company has so many data points in regard to all the companies in its network. Square also has access to your company's sales numbers and can easily and quickly gauge the risk in making you a loan. This advantage in speed and accuracy over the traditional banks will make Square the biggest financial stock over the next decade and a half.\n5. Waymo (current market cap: unknown)\nI believe at some point Alphabet (NASDAQ: GOOG) (NASDAQ:GOOGL) will spin out its autonomous car division, and Waymo will surge past its parent. And while it may have competitors, such as Cruise, a division of General Motors, or perhaps Tesla, I believe Google's AI capabilities will win the day.\nThe real competition might not come from the land, but from the air. Electric air taxi service Joby Aviation, with collaborators including Uber, Toyota, and the U.S. Air Force, may ultimately give Waymo a run for its money as ground traffic forces man into the air.\n4. Shopify (current market cap: $184.98 billion)\nShopify (NYSE:SHOP) is arguably the most important software company in the world. The company is synonymous with internet commerce and giving small business owners the means and ability to compete with mighty Amazon. Shopify's stock has been ridiculous since its IPO, up almost 6,000% in six years.\nSHOP data by YCharts\nThis dramatic rise will continue because Shopify's market opportunity is so gigantic. The retailing market is $25 trillion or so right now. More and more shopping will shift online, and Shopify will be the tech engine that makes this all happen. Shopify may very well pass Amazon in market size one day.\n3. Nvidia (current market cap: $659.1 billion)\nWhile Nvidia (NASDAQ:NVDA) is not yet in the trillion-dollar club, the chipmaker is already one of the 10 largest companies in the world. The company's chips are already key in gaming, mobile, and automotive markets. But it's the company's forays into computer chips for artificial intelligence that caused the stock to shoot into the stratosphere.\n2. SpaceX (current market cap: unknown)\nWhile Elon Musk's space travel company is still private, in its latest funding round the company was valued at $100 billion. Right now the company has two major projects: Starlink and Starship. It's entirely possible that Musk will spin out Starlink as a separate entity. He has said that will do so when its cash flows are more predictable. At a tech conference last year, Musk estimated the market opportunity for putting satellites into space at $3 billion a year, while providing broadband internet would perhaps add another $30 billion in annual revenue.\nIt appears to me that SpaceX is now dominating the race for space, and I believe this company will receive crazy valuations if and when it ever comes public. The upside really is unlimited.\n1. Amazon (current market cap: $1.6 trillion)\nAmazon is not a sure thing, of course -- no company is. The king of internet retail is facing competition from a sea of mom-and-pop outfits, powered by Shopify. And even Amazon Web Services is facing competitive threats. Amazon is currently dividing its cloud pie with tech giants Alphabet and Microsoft. But perhaps the real competition will come from DigitalOcean, the hugely popular provider of cheap, customer-friendly cloud services.\nNonetheless, Amazon will adapt and overcome, finding more and more sources of revenue in the future. Outside of Apple, this is the strongest consumer brand on this list. Amazon has powerful mindshare, and its markets are so large, it's unlikely to see much in the way of antitrust scrutiny. This company has perhaps more optionality than any other company in the world. And that's why Amazon is my pick for the No. 1 stock of 2035.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1019,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":849804356,"gmtCreate":1635739497194,"gmtModify":1635739497194,"author":{"id":"3563856816165145","authorId":"3563856816165145","name":"MiloDing","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/54f4e8ed7942e6adfa985be108468840","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3563856816165145","idStr":"3563856816165145"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看","listText":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看","text":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/849804356","repostId":"2179122694","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":781,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":168970911,"gmtCreate":1623948174733,"gmtModify":1623948174733,"author":{"id":"3563856816165145","authorId":"3563856816165145","name":"MiloDing","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/54f4e8ed7942e6adfa985be108468840","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3563856816165145","idStr":"3563856816165145"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看","listText":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看","text":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/168970911","repostId":"1119601826","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1001,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":328552380,"gmtCreate":1615543122040,"gmtModify":1703490691678,"author":{"id":"3563856816165145","authorId":"3563856816165145","name":"MiloDing","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/54f4e8ed7942e6adfa985be108468840","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3563856816165145","idStr":"3563856816165145"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看","listText":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看","text":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/328552380","repostId":"328513397","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":328513397,"gmtCreate":1615539753815,"gmtModify":1703490630870,"author":{"id":"36979109942400","authorId":"36979109942400","name":"小虎周报","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/f7b172cf773c77a3f0df67695c126b51","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"36979109942400","idStr":"36979109942400"},"themes":[],"title":"美股料已进入年内二次买入的绝佳时机","htmlText":"我们认为，近期是美股年内二次买入的绝佳时机，立足于中期，当前我们建议超配周期、价值，标配科技。 目前为止，随着1.9万亿财政刺激的落地，还有近期美联储购债规模的增加，美债波动对美股的影响已暂告一段落，我们预计美股三大指数上半年仍具备持续创新高的动能，近期也应该是美股年内二次买入的绝佳时机。<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/.SPX\">$标普500(.SPX)$</a> <a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/.IXIC\">$纳斯达克(.IXIC)$</a> <a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/.DJI\">$道琼斯(.DJI)$</a> 配置思路上，基于通胀抬升预期，我们认为，对于美股中的周期股、价值股中期仍然值得进行超配，同时短期科技股短期修复空间更大，但中期仍然受到利率的扰动，因此同样值得进行标配。 比如，以<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">$特斯拉(TSLA)$</a> 为代表的明星动能股，在利率扰动暂缓下，已经跟随指数先后完成强劲探底。但未来还需要关注影响美债波动的其他催化剂，包括4月份拜登基建方案预期，疫苗全面接种，疫苗保护率上升，或出现与疫情相关的其他里程碑事件，因此科技股的上涨并非坦途。但整体说来，结合历史长周期经验和股债相关性，我们认为这轮美债收益率上涨的下一个核心关口应该在1.8%-2%附近，而这个时间节点至少也要等到下半年，在这之前美股都具备较强的配置价值和能见度。空间上，我们认为上半年，<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/.SPX\">$标普500(.SPX)$</a>","listText":"我们认为，近期是美股年内二次买入的绝佳时机，立足于中期，当前我们建议超配周期、价值，标配科技。 目前为止，随着1.9万亿财政刺激的落地，还有近期美联储购债规模的增加，美债波动对美股的影响已暂告一段落，我们预计美股三大指数上半年仍具备持续创新高的动能，近期也应该是美股年内二次买入的绝佳时机。<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/.SPX\">$标普500(.SPX)$</a> <a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/.IXIC\">$纳斯达克(.IXIC)$</a> <a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/.DJI\">$道琼斯(.DJI)$</a> 配置思路上，基于通胀抬升预期，我们认为，对于美股中的周期股、价值股中期仍然值得进行超配，同时短期科技股短期修复空间更大，但中期仍然受到利率的扰动，因此同样值得进行标配。 比如，以<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">$特斯拉(TSLA)$</a> 为代表的明星动能股，在利率扰动暂缓下，已经跟随指数先后完成强劲探底。但未来还需要关注影响美债波动的其他催化剂，包括4月份拜登基建方案预期，疫苗全面接种，疫苗保护率上升，或出现与疫情相关的其他里程碑事件，因此科技股的上涨并非坦途。但整体说来，结合历史长周期经验和股债相关性，我们认为这轮美债收益率上涨的下一个核心关口应该在1.8%-2%附近，而这个时间节点至少也要等到下半年，在这之前美股都具备较强的配置价值和能见度。空间上，我们认为上半年，<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/.SPX\">$标普500(.SPX)$</a>","text":"我们认为，近期是美股年内二次买入的绝佳时机，立足于中期，当前我们建议超配周期、价值，标配科技。 目前为止，随着1.9万亿财政刺激的落地，还有近期美联储购债规模的增加，美债波动对美股的影响已暂告一段落，我们预计美股三大指数上半年仍具备持续创新高的动能，近期也应该是美股年内二次买入的绝佳时机。$标普500(.SPX)$ $纳斯达克(.IXIC)$ $道琼斯(.DJI)$ 配置思路上，基于通胀抬升预期，我们认为，对于美股中的周期股、价值股中期仍然值得进行超配，同时短期科技股短期修复空间更大，但中期仍然受到利率的扰动，因此同样值得进行标配。 比如，以$特斯拉(TSLA)$ 为代表的明星动能股，在利率扰动暂缓下，已经跟随指数先后完成强劲探底。但未来还需要关注影响美债波动的其他催化剂，包括4月份拜登基建方案预期，疫苗全面接种，疫苗保护率上升，或出现与疫情相关的其他里程碑事件，因此科技股的上涨并非坦途。但整体说来，结合历史长周期经验和股债相关性，我们认为这轮美债收益率上涨的下一个核心关口应该在1.8%-2%附近，而这个时间节点至少也要等到下半年，在这之前美股都具备较强的配置价值和能见度。空间上，我们认为上半年，$标普500(.SPX)$","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4a1820120ae55d9fe2a73c2acd766014","width":"1920","height":"1080"}],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":2,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/328513397","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":2,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":799,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":328253107,"gmtCreate":1615533808209,"gmtModify":1703490544312,"author":{"id":"3563856816165145","authorId":"3563856816165145","name":"MiloDing","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/54f4e8ed7942e6adfa985be108468840","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3563856816165145","idStr":"3563856816165145"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看","listText":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看","text":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/328253107","repostId":"321710218","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":321710218,"gmtCreate":1615469686134,"gmtModify":1703489490259,"author":{"id":"3532831849818465","authorId":"3532831849818465","name":"许亚鑫","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/72cbe26a31edf2913e619f4aa762d2d4","crmLevel":7,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3532831849818465","idStr":"3532831849818465"},"themes":[],"title":"美债大卖！会面实锤！反弹开启！","htmlText":"公众号：许亚鑫 今天许导上来就聊三件事：美债大卖，中美会面实锤和股市反弹开启！ 第一件事，美债大卖。 继周二3年期的580亿美债大卖之后，隔夜10年期240亿美债反响也还可以，每售出1美元的美国国债，出价为2.38美元。这与2月25日出售的7年期债券形成了鲜明的对比，后者则形成创纪录的低价竞标。具体数据为，得标利率为1.523%，高于2月的1.155%，也是2020年2月以来最高。衡量需求的投标倍数为2.38，略高于上个月的2.37，过去六次拍卖均值也是2.37。 当然，今天还有240亿美元30年期国债，以及300亿美元的4周期和350亿美元的8周期的国债。 看不懂数据的，那么请看上图10年期美债收益率的走势图，跳水总看得懂吧？！伴随着美债收益率的跳水，是不是美国道琼斯股指已经“V”回来了，纳斯达克指数也企稳反抽了，贵金属也触底反弹了？ 那么请各位仔细看一下目前发生的市场波动，是不是就是许导在前文《<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/TW/365293599\" target=\"_blank\">美债飙升后，一个大型诱空陷阱正在形成</a>》所描述的：大型诱空陷阱？！！！ 比较有意思的是，就在拍卖美债的关键节骨眼上，市场爆出了阿拉斯加会面的猛料。有没有发现，这个时机恰好就发生在1.9万亿刺激计划确认落地，美债大卖之时...... 没错！我知道你们在想什么，你们想的和我想的一样，这一轮美债大卖的背后，估计是兔子出手了，具体的情况我们需要等几个月以后老鹰财政部更新数据后才能去印证。 无论到底这里是谁出手接盘了美债，有个结论是比较清晰的，即美债收益率的上行只是短期现象，并未形成真正的趋势，而这一轮的美债抛售潮和风险资产重估最糟糕的阶段或已告一段落，这件事，许导在早前《","listText":"公众号：许亚鑫 今天许导上来就聊三件事：美债大卖，中美会面实锤和股市反弹开启！ 第一件事，美债大卖。 继周二3年期的580亿美债大卖之后，隔夜10年期240亿美债反响也还可以，每售出1美元的美国国债，出价为2.38美元。这与2月25日出售的7年期债券形成了鲜明的对比，后者则形成创纪录的低价竞标。具体数据为，得标利率为1.523%，高于2月的1.155%，也是2020年2月以来最高。衡量需求的投标倍数为2.38，略高于上个月的2.37，过去六次拍卖均值也是2.37。 当然，今天还有240亿美元30年期国债，以及300亿美元的4周期和350亿美元的8周期的国债。 看不懂数据的，那么请看上图10年期美债收益率的走势图，跳水总看得懂吧？！伴随着美债收益率的跳水，是不是美国道琼斯股指已经“V”回来了，纳斯达克指数也企稳反抽了，贵金属也触底反弹了？ 那么请各位仔细看一下目前发生的市场波动，是不是就是许导在前文《<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/TW/365293599\" target=\"_blank\">美债飙升后，一个大型诱空陷阱正在形成</a>》所描述的：大型诱空陷阱？！！！ 比较有意思的是，就在拍卖美债的关键节骨眼上，市场爆出了阿拉斯加会面的猛料。有没有发现，这个时机恰好就发生在1.9万亿刺激计划确认落地，美债大卖之时...... 没错！我知道你们在想什么，你们想的和我想的一样，这一轮美债大卖的背后，估计是兔子出手了，具体的情况我们需要等几个月以后老鹰财政部更新数据后才能去印证。 无论到底这里是谁出手接盘了美债，有个结论是比较清晰的，即美债收益率的上行只是短期现象，并未形成真正的趋势，而这一轮的美债抛售潮和风险资产重估最糟糕的阶段或已告一段落，这件事，许导在早前《","text":"公众号：许亚鑫 今天许导上来就聊三件事：美债大卖，中美会面实锤和股市反弹开启！ 第一件事，美债大卖。 继周二3年期的580亿美债大卖之后，隔夜10年期240亿美债反响也还可以，每售出1美元的美国国债，出价为2.38美元。这与2月25日出售的7年期债券形成了鲜明的对比，后者则形成创纪录的低价竞标。具体数据为，得标利率为1.523%，高于2月的1.155%，也是2020年2月以来最高。衡量需求的投标倍数为2.38，略高于上个月的2.37，过去六次拍卖均值也是2.37。 当然，今天还有240亿美元30年期国债，以及300亿美元的4周期和350亿美元的8周期的国债。 看不懂数据的，那么请看上图10年期美债收益率的走势图，跳水总看得懂吧？！伴随着美债收益率的跳水，是不是美国道琼斯股指已经“V”回来了，纳斯达克指数也企稳反抽了，贵金属也触底反弹了？ 那么请各位仔细看一下目前发生的市场波动，是不是就是许导在前文《美债飙升后，一个大型诱空陷阱正在形成》所描述的：大型诱空陷阱？！！！ 比较有意思的是，就在拍卖美债的关键节骨眼上，市场爆出了阿拉斯加会面的猛料。有没有发现，这个时机恰好就发生在1.9万亿刺激计划确认落地，美债大卖之时...... 没错！我知道你们在想什么，你们想的和我想的一样，这一轮美债大卖的背后，估计是兔子出手了，具体的情况我们需要等几个月以后老鹰财政部更新数据后才能去印证。 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周五GME狂拉51%惊呆了华尔街，WSB开始频频被文章提及。WSB是Wall Street Bet的缩写，是Reddit论坛的一个分区。群里的教徒热衷毛票，赌末日otm看涨期权致富。这样一群疯狂的散户，愣是将GME炒到了2倍。机构也遭到了WSB教徒的冲拳出击，看衰GME的香橼被WSB网友疯狂攻击，高管被问候家人，社交媒体账号被迫新开账号。周五大盘微跌情况下，WSB平均收益为22.4%。 潜伏在WSB论坛一天一夜，本公众号为各位投资者总结了继GME后备受关注的股票: 股票ticker 行业类型 备注 BB 无线通信解决技术公司 利好消息：企业转型：黑莓设备、黑莓企业软件服务、黑莓通讯工具，以及QNX嵌入式软件业务及车载系统市场 PLTR 大数据分析公司 WSB网友预测三个月内股价达到$40 AMC* 院线娱乐公司 WSB的下一个short squeeze target LOVE 家具制造商 BBBY* 床上用品商店 WSB网友预测股价达到$38 Plug 充电桩 Kerridsdale Capital 发布做空报告后被大量wsb网民抨击 SPWR 太阳能储能系统 被WSB网友寄以厚望，yolo帖子最热门的股票 CCIV SPAC壳公司 与THCB并列讨论度最热门的spac股票 （*wsb网友给出的amc short squeeze图） （*wsb网友给出的bbby short squeeze图） 除上述top 8股票以外，ICLN, TSLA, APPL, AMD, NOK, BABA 也在活跃讨论的股票list之列。希望这篇文章，对那些周五GME 暴涨有所困惑的投资者解惑，并提炼出最受WSB网友关注的八大股票，或许他们中的一个就是下一个GME。 关注遇见阿尔法，我们将为你带来","listText":"阅读本文风险提示：毛票有危险，跟风需谨慎，本文只是单纯总结WSB讨论度最热list，不做任何推荐。 周五GME狂拉51%惊呆了华尔街，WSB开始频频被文章提及。WSB是Wall Street Bet的缩写，是Reddit论坛的一个分区。群里的教徒热衷毛票，赌末日otm看涨期权致富。这样一群疯狂的散户，愣是将GME炒到了2倍。机构也遭到了WSB教徒的冲拳出击，看衰GME的香橼被WSB网友疯狂攻击，高管被问候家人，社交媒体账号被迫新开账号。周五大盘微跌情况下，WSB平均收益为22.4%。 潜伏在WSB论坛一天一夜，本公众号为各位投资者总结了继GME后备受关注的股票: 股票ticker 行业类型 备注 BB 无线通信解决技术公司 利好消息：企业转型：黑莓设备、黑莓企业软件服务、黑莓通讯工具，以及QNX嵌入式软件业务及车载系统市场 PLTR 大数据分析公司 WSB网友预测三个月内股价达到$40 AMC* 院线娱乐公司 WSB的下一个short squeeze target LOVE 家具制造商 BBBY* 床上用品商店 WSB网友预测股价达到$38 Plug 充电桩 Kerridsdale Capital 发布做空报告后被大量wsb网民抨击 SPWR 太阳能储能系统 被WSB网友寄以厚望，yolo帖子最热门的股票 CCIV SPAC壳公司 与THCB并列讨论度最热门的spac股票 （*wsb网友给出的amc short squeeze图） （*wsb网友给出的bbby short squeeze图） 除上述top 8股票以外，ICLN, TSLA, APPL, AMD, NOK, BABA 也在活跃讨论的股票list之列。希望这篇文章，对那些周五GME 暴涨有所困惑的投资者解惑，并提炼出最受WSB网友关注的八大股票，或许他们中的一个就是下一个GME。 关注遇见阿尔法，我们将为你带来","text":"阅读本文风险提示：毛票有危险，跟风需谨慎，本文只是单纯总结WSB讨论度最热list，不做任何推荐。 周五GME狂拉51%惊呆了华尔街，WSB开始频频被文章提及。WSB是Wall Street Bet的缩写，是Reddit论坛的一个分区。群里的教徒热衷毛票，赌末日otm看涨期权致富。这样一群疯狂的散户，愣是将GME炒到了2倍。机构也遭到了WSB教徒的冲拳出击，看衰GME的香橼被WSB网友疯狂攻击，高管被问候家人，社交媒体账号被迫新开账号。周五大盘微跌情况下，WSB平均收益为22.4%。 潜伏在WSB论坛一天一夜，本公众号为各位投资者总结了继GME后备受关注的股票: 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target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/.IXIC\">$纳斯达克(.IXIC)$</a> 北京时间周五凌晨一点，美联储主席鲍威尔将发表讲话。这个时间窗口，显得尤为关键，应该会加速让美股走出方向。对于目前的市场来讲，千言万语，也不如一个问题更加宝贵：在什么情形下，10年期美债收益率才会降下来？ 我们提出可能出现的三种情形讨论。 1.银行补充杠杆率（SLR）豁免问题。 首先，比较焦点的问题是银行补充杠杆率（SLR）豁免即将于3月31日到期，这部分是不是延期，美联储在上周二曾提示过，将会很快给出结果。 简单来说，如果延期的话，银行资本充裕率持续宽松，意味着银行就可以直接买更多的国债，并回购自家的股票。买国债的预期，会导致国债价格上升，就可以直接把收益降下来，以解目前美债抬升的燃眉之急，为美股上行带来动力。但是如果没有延期，银行可能被迫抛售国债，带动国债收益率上升，施压美股。 &nbsp;2.美联储会不会重启动扭曲操作？ 简单的说，扭曲操作就是卖出短期美债，买入长期国债（一般5年左右及以上），这样的话短债收益率上升，但长债收益率就下来了，相应的长期借贷成本也会降下来，经济复苏但又不影响美债收益率，也就是可以在防范美股崩盘（控制金融市场风险）的情况下，顺利完成经济复苏。 扭曲操作常常出现的QE间隙，美联储上一次动用扭曲操作是在2011年，目前的关头，其实也是满足触发实施扭曲操作条件的。 &nbsp;3.是否进行淡化加息前景的口头安抚？ 如果持续释放宽松信号，淡化通胀，让加息时间不那么快提前，那么对短期美债的上行压力实际上也会有一个纾缓作用。更有利于美股化险为夷，延续上升通道。 目前来讲，以上三种市场均有预期，但情形1：","listText":"这几天美股如惊弓之鸟，大部分时间都在受着美债收益率的牵动，几天的修正下来，美股目前的位置，其实已经比想象中更加关键。<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/.IXIC\">$纳斯达克(.IXIC)$</a> 北京时间周五凌晨一点，美联储主席鲍威尔将发表讲话。这个时间窗口，显得尤为关键，应该会加速让美股走出方向。对于目前的市场来讲，千言万语，也不如一个问题更加宝贵：在什么情形下，10年期美债收益率才会降下来？ 我们提出可能出现的三种情形讨论。 1.银行补充杠杆率（SLR）豁免问题。 首先，比较焦点的问题是银行补充杠杆率（SLR）豁免即将于3月31日到期，这部分是不是延期，美联储在上周二曾提示过，将会很快给出结果。 简单来说，如果延期的话，银行资本充裕率持续宽松，意味着银行就可以直接买更多的国债，并回购自家的股票。买国债的预期，会导致国债价格上升，就可以直接把收益降下来，以解目前美债抬升的燃眉之急，为美股上行带来动力。但是如果没有延期，银行可能被迫抛售国债，带动国债收益率上升，施压美股。 &nbsp;2.美联储会不会重启动扭曲操作？ 简单的说，扭曲操作就是卖出短期美债，买入长期国债（一般5年左右及以上），这样的话短债收益率上升，但长债收益率就下来了，相应的长期借贷成本也会降下来，经济复苏但又不影响美债收益率，也就是可以在防范美股崩盘（控制金融市场风险）的情况下，顺利完成经济复苏。 扭曲操作常常出现的QE间隙，美联储上一次动用扭曲操作是在2011年，目前的关头，其实也是满足触发实施扭曲操作条件的。 &nbsp;3.是否进行淡化加息前景的口头安抚？ 如果持续释放宽松信号，淡化通胀，让加息时间不那么快提前，那么对短期美债的上行压力实际上也会有一个纾缓作用。更有利于美股化险为夷，延续上升通道。 目前来讲，以上三种市场均有预期，但情形1：","text":"这几天美股如惊弓之鸟，大部分时间都在受着美债收益率的牵动，几天的修正下来，美股目前的位置，其实已经比想象中更加关键。$纳斯达克(.IXIC)$ 北京时间周五凌晨一点，美联储主席鲍威尔将发表讲话。这个时间窗口，显得尤为关键，应该会加速让美股走出方向。对于目前的市场来讲，千言万语，也不如一个问题更加宝贵：在什么情形下，10年期美债收益率才会降下来？ 我们提出可能出现的三种情形讨论。 1.银行补充杠杆率（SLR）豁免问题。 首先，比较焦点的问题是银行补充杠杆率（SLR）豁免即将于3月31日到期，这部分是不是延期，美联储在上周二曾提示过，将会很快给出结果。 简单来说，如果延期的话，银行资本充裕率持续宽松，意味着银行就可以直接买更多的国债，并回购自家的股票。买国债的预期，会导致国债价格上升，就可以直接把收益降下来，以解目前美债抬升的燃眉之急，为美股上行带来动力。但是如果没有延期，银行可能被迫抛售国债，带动国债收益率上升，施压美股。 2.美联储会不会重启动扭曲操作？ 简单的说，扭曲操作就是卖出短期美债，买入长期国债（一般5年左右及以上），这样的话短债收益率上升，但长债收益率就下来了，相应的长期借贷成本也会降下来，经济复苏但又不影响美债收益率，也就是可以在防范美股崩盘（控制金融市场风险）的情况下，顺利完成经济复苏。 扭曲操作常常出现的QE间隙，美联储上一次动用扭曲操作是在2011年，目前的关头，其实也是满足触发实施扭曲操作条件的。 3.是否进行淡化加息前景的口头安抚？ 如果持续释放宽松信号，淡化通胀，让加息时间不那么快提前，那么对短期美债的上行压力实际上也会有一个纾缓作用。更有利于美股化险为夷，延续上升通道。 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Inc(ROKU)$千亿市值即将开始","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/302966744","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":370,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3527667803686145","authorId":"3527667803686145","name":"社区成长助手","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2b7c7106b5c0c8b0037faa67439d898f","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"3527667803686145","idStr":"3527667803686145"},"content":"终于等到了您的初发帖[比心][比心]希望您能在老虎社区玩得愉快、赚得开心！如果您想创作优质文章，请查看老虎社区创作指引","text":"终于等到了您的初发帖[比心][比心]希望您能在老虎社区玩得愉快、赚得开心！如果您想创作优质文章，请查看老虎社区创作指引","html":"终于等到了您的初发帖[比心][比心]希望您能在老虎社区玩得愉快、赚得开心！如果您想创作优质文章，请查看老虎社区创作指引"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":367316433,"gmtCreate":1614909869522,"gmtModify":1703482841036,"author":{"id":"3563856816165145","authorId":"3563856816165145","name":"MiloDing","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/54f4e8ed7942e6adfa985be108468840","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3563856816165145","idStr":"3563856816165145"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看","listText":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看","text":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/367316433","repostId":"364790881","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":364790881,"gmtCreate":1614872324539,"gmtModify":1703482393610,"author":{"id":"36979109942400","authorId":"36979109942400","name":"小虎周报","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/f7b172cf773c77a3f0df67695c126b51","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"36979109942400","idStr":"36979109942400"},"themes":[],"title":"鲍威尔讲话在即，什么情形下，美债收益率会降下来？","htmlText":"这几天美股如惊弓之鸟，大部分时间都在受着美债收益率的牵动，几天的修正下来，美股目前的位置，其实已经比想象中更加关键。<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/.IXIC\">$纳斯达克(.IXIC)$</a> 北京时间周五凌晨一点，美联储主席鲍威尔将发表讲话。这个时间窗口，显得尤为关键，应该会加速让美股走出方向。对于目前的市场来讲，千言万语，也不如一个问题更加宝贵：在什么情形下，10年期美债收益率才会降下来？ 我们提出可能出现的三种情形讨论。 1.银行补充杠杆率（SLR）豁免问题。 首先，比较焦点的问题是银行补充杠杆率（SLR）豁免即将于3月31日到期，这部分是不是延期，美联储在上周二曾提示过，将会很快给出结果。 简单来说，如果延期的话，银行资本充裕率持续宽松，意味着银行就可以直接买更多的国债，并回购自家的股票。买国债的预期，会导致国债价格上升，就可以直接把收益降下来，以解目前美债抬升的燃眉之急，为美股上行带来动力。但是如果没有延期，银行可能被迫抛售国债，带动国债收益率上升，施压美股。 &nbsp;2.美联储会不会重启动扭曲操作？ 简单的说，扭曲操作就是卖出短期美债，买入长期国债（一般5年左右及以上），这样的话短债收益率上升，但长债收益率就下来了，相应的长期借贷成本也会降下来，经济复苏但又不影响美债收益率，也就是可以在防范美股崩盘（控制金融市场风险）的情况下，顺利完成经济复苏。 扭曲操作常常出现的QE间隙，美联储上一次动用扭曲操作是在2011年，目前的关头，其实也是满足触发实施扭曲操作条件的。 &nbsp;3.是否进行淡化加息前景的口头安抚？ 如果持续释放宽松信号，淡化通胀，让加息时间不那么快提前，那么对短期美债的上行压力实际上也会有一个纾缓作用。更有利于美股化险为夷，延续上升通道。 目前来讲，以上三种市场均有预期，但情形1：","listText":"这几天美股如惊弓之鸟，大部分时间都在受着美债收益率的牵动，几天的修正下来，美股目前的位置，其实已经比想象中更加关键。<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/.IXIC\">$纳斯达克(.IXIC)$</a> 北京时间周五凌晨一点，美联储主席鲍威尔将发表讲话。这个时间窗口，显得尤为关键，应该会加速让美股走出方向。对于目前的市场来讲，千言万语，也不如一个问题更加宝贵：在什么情形下，10年期美债收益率才会降下来？ 我们提出可能出现的三种情形讨论。 1.银行补充杠杆率（SLR）豁免问题。 首先，比较焦点的问题是银行补充杠杆率（SLR）豁免即将于3月31日到期，这部分是不是延期，美联储在上周二曾提示过，将会很快给出结果。 简单来说，如果延期的话，银行资本充裕率持续宽松，意味着银行就可以直接买更多的国债，并回购自家的股票。买国债的预期，会导致国债价格上升，就可以直接把收益降下来，以解目前美债抬升的燃眉之急，为美股上行带来动力。但是如果没有延期，银行可能被迫抛售国债，带动国债收益率上升，施压美股。 &nbsp;2.美联储会不会重启动扭曲操作？ 简单的说，扭曲操作就是卖出短期美债，买入长期国债（一般5年左右及以上），这样的话短债收益率上升，但长债收益率就下来了，相应的长期借贷成本也会降下来，经济复苏但又不影响美债收益率，也就是可以在防范美股崩盘（控制金融市场风险）的情况下，顺利完成经济复苏。 扭曲操作常常出现的QE间隙，美联储上一次动用扭曲操作是在2011年，目前的关头，其实也是满足触发实施扭曲操作条件的。 &nbsp;3.是否进行淡化加息前景的口头安抚？ 如果持续释放宽松信号，淡化通胀，让加息时间不那么快提前，那么对短期美债的上行压力实际上也会有一个纾缓作用。更有利于美股化险为夷，延续上升通道。 目前来讲，以上三种市场均有预期，但情形1：","text":"这几天美股如惊弓之鸟，大部分时间都在受着美债收益率的牵动，几天的修正下来，美股目前的位置，其实已经比想象中更加关键。$纳斯达克(.IXIC)$ 北京时间周五凌晨一点，美联储主席鲍威尔将发表讲话。这个时间窗口，显得尤为关键，应该会加速让美股走出方向。对于目前的市场来讲，千言万语，也不如一个问题更加宝贵：在什么情形下，10年期美债收益率才会降下来？ 我们提出可能出现的三种情形讨论。 1.银行补充杠杆率（SLR）豁免问题。 首先，比较焦点的问题是银行补充杠杆率（SLR）豁免即将于3月31日到期，这部分是不是延期，美联储在上周二曾提示过，将会很快给出结果。 简单来说，如果延期的话，银行资本充裕率持续宽松，意味着银行就可以直接买更多的国债，并回购自家的股票。买国债的预期，会导致国债价格上升，就可以直接把收益降下来，以解目前美债抬升的燃眉之急，为美股上行带来动力。但是如果没有延期，银行可能被迫抛售国债，带动国债收益率上升，施压美股。 2.美联储会不会重启动扭曲操作？ 简单的说，扭曲操作就是卖出短期美债，买入长期国债（一般5年左右及以上），这样的话短债收益率上升，但长债收益率就下来了，相应的长期借贷成本也会降下来，经济复苏但又不影响美债收益率，也就是可以在防范美股崩盘（控制金融市场风险）的情况下，顺利完成经济复苏。 扭曲操作常常出现的QE间隙，美联储上一次动用扭曲操作是在2011年，目前的关头，其实也是满足触发实施扭曲操作条件的。 3.是否进行淡化加息前景的口头安抚？ 如果持续释放宽松信号，淡化通胀，让加息时间不那么快提前，那么对短期美债的上行压力实际上也会有一个纾缓作用。更有利于美股化险为夷，延续上升通道。 目前来讲，以上三种市场均有预期，但情形1：","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":2,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/364790881","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":677,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":393195250,"gmtCreate":1606240083570,"gmtModify":1703842052565,"author":{"id":"3563856816165145","authorId":"3563856816165145","name":"MiloDing","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/54f4e8ed7942e6adfa985be108468840","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3563856816165145","idStr":"3563856816165145"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/FCEL\">$燃料电池能源(FCEL)$</a>艾德证券因为不是实时的，今晚巨亏！","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/FCEL\">$燃料电池能源(FCEL)$</a>艾德证券因为不是实时的，今晚巨亏！","text":"$燃料电池能源(FCEL)$艾德证券因为不是实时的，今晚巨亏！","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/393195250","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":179,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":844451939,"gmtCreate":1636453879619,"gmtModify":1636453879619,"author":{"id":"3563856816165145","authorId":"3563856816165145","name":"MiloDing","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/54f4e8ed7942e6adfa985be108468840","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3563856816165145","idStr":"3563856816165145"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看","listText":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看","text":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/844451939","repostId":"1187443455","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1187443455","pubTimestamp":1636446655,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1187443455?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-11-09 16:30","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"今年最大IPO来了，估值4000亿","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1187443455","media":"天天IPO","summary":"造车运动，依旧轰轰烈烈。今年最大的IPO即将诞生。投资界消息，美国明星车企Rivian将于11月10日登陆纳斯达克，股票代码为RIVN。本次IPO，Rivian计划以每股72-74美元的价格出售1.35亿股，用来筹集接近100亿美元资金。以此计算，Rivian的市值将会超过650亿美元，成为全美历史上第七大IPO。如今，Rivian一跃成为了特斯拉最强劲的对手，也即将迎来IPO敲钟，估值达650亿美元。","content":"<blockquote>\n 造车运动，依旧轰轰烈烈。\n</blockquote>\n<p>今年最大的IPO即将诞生。</p>\n<p>投资界消息，美国明星车企<b>Rivian</b>将于11月10日登陆纳斯达克，股票代码为RIVN。本次IPO，Rivian计划以每股72-74美元的价格出售1.35亿股，用来筹集接近100亿美元资金。以此计算，Rivian的市值将会超过650亿美元，成为全美历史上第七大IPO。</p>\n<p>对于大多数人来说，Rivian显得遥远陌生，但这是特斯拉目前在美国最强劲的对手之一。其故事要从一位80后博士<b>R.J.斯卡林格</b>（简称“R.J.”）说起。他从小就有一个汽车梦，长大后进入麻省理工攻读机械专业硕博学位。2009年，毕业后的R.J.回到家乡创业，几经挫折后创办了Rivian，最后凭借着一款轻型电动卡车爆红。</p>\n<p>Rivian被亚马逊创始人贝索斯寄予了厚望。2019年，亚马逊领投了Rivian的7亿美元A轮融资，自此Rivian开启了融资狂奔之路，迄今至少融资7轮，累计金额超100亿美元，投资方阵容豪华——亚马逊多次押注，福特击败通用拿到份额，黑石也来了，更有一众财大气粗的财团。</p>\n<p>透过Rivian，我们看到了全球造车风起云涌。几乎同一时间，国内造车江湖也迎来了一位极具震撼的玩家——宁德时代，三天内先后官宣投资两只造车独角兽：阿维塔科技和哪吒汽车，都是大手笔。这场造车竞赛，依然轰轰烈烈。</p>\n<p><b>80后麻省理工博士造车</b></p>\n<p><b>凭借电动卡车挑战特斯拉，估值4000亿</b></p>\n<p>这只超级猛兽背后，站着一位80后创始人。</p>\n<p>1983年，R.J.斯卡林格出生于美国佛罗里达州墨尔本的印第安河畔。他打小就是个超级车迷，小时候经常在邻居家车库里帮忙，期间做过许多疯狂的事。譬如，他曾帮助邻居修复对方的保时捷356s，还曾在中学时代自主造过汽车引擎。从那时起，R.J.萌发了创办属于自己汽车品牌的念头。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/72bcca9691b0f30913fbaf14db9c15b4\" tg-width=\"915\" tg-height=\"825\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p>\n<p>怀抱这样的理想，他决心通过学习工程学来圆梦。于是，R.J.从美国伦斯勒理工学院本科毕业后，便前往麻省理工学院久负盛名的斯隆汽车实验室（Sloan Automotive Lab）攻读硕博学位。2009年，R.J.成功获得了机械工程博士学位，同时也掌握了制造自己想象中的汽车所需的技能。也是这一年，<b>26岁的R.J.回到老家创办了一家小型车企Mainstream Motors，后来这家公司更名为Rivian</b>，名字正是源自他童年时代的居住地Indian River。</p>\n<p>Rivian成立前四年，R.J.一直专注于生产高效内燃机，试图打造一款双门四座、平价又省油的跑车R1。不过事与愿违。当时，R.J.没钱、没人、没技术且没生产工厂更没供应商，仅仅依靠自己的麻省理工博士口碑以及家人朋友提供的启动资金，造车这条路走不通了。他曾回忆，“在Rivian早期，我们遇到了一个岔路口，是继续坚持，希望奇迹发生，能够融更多钱扩展？还是放弃，把失败经验应用到新领域？”</p>\n<p>意识到危机，R.J.决定谋求转型。彼时因气候变化，能源危机与环境保护逐渐成为全球热议的论题。R.J.也意识到了其中的危害，他曾说，“我知道我所热爱的东西使得空气变得更脏，并引起了各种各样的问题，从地缘政治冲突到烟雾弥漫再到气候变化，这所有的一切都令人沮丧。”</p>\n<p>于是，他调整了新的发展方向：<b>从专注传统燃油车，转向研发环保的电动车。</b>2012年，Rivian结束了轿跑项目，开始转型走向户外等亲近自然的场所。但是当时美国电动汽车市场被特斯拉占据，一个名不见经传的小车企想要从中开辟自己的天地，难度极高。幸运的是，R.J.和他的团队通过考察美国本土的实际市场发现了特斯拉缺位的新领域——<b>轻型电动卡车</b>。有意思的是，卡车不仅是美国人的挚爱，其市场规模较传统汽车也更大、利润更高。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7c11bac7e25278dd22761b86190168ce\" tg-width=\"554\" tg-height=\"255\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p>\n<p>确定了新路径，R.J.并未冲动，这一次他选择慢慢来。第一步，R.J.将公司从家乡墨尔本迁移到了美国著名的汽车之都底特律附近的普利茅斯；之后，他在2017年以1600万美元的价格收购了距离芝加哥以南几小时车程的Normal市前三菱工厂。谈及选址原因，他曾说，“因为这里距离汽车制造行业的人才更近。”自此，他开始专注研发。</p>\n<p>一件事成功之前，往往都有着一段长期的沉默期。对于R.J.而言，这个沉默是十年。自2009年创办以来，R.J.带领着Rivian在汽车领域鏖战，鲜少站到聚光灯下。直至2018年，转机悄然到来。</p>\n<p>2018年11月，洛杉矶车展上，一直沉默研发的Rivian破天荒地亮相多款电动卡车与电动SUV，其中就包括今年9月已开始交付的R1T。这之后，相对低调的Rivian瞬间引爆全美，赢得亚马逊、福特公司、Cox等巨头的拥趸，其累计融资金额已超过100亿美元。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/44c58cfd252e54ea637c0ece4a179745\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"496\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p>\n<p>如今，Rivian一跃成为了特斯拉最强劲的对手，也即将迎来IPO敲钟，估值达650亿美元（4100亿元）。一旦成功上市，Rivian将成为美国过去十年来的第七大IPO，也将成为2021年至今最大的IPO。</p>\n<p><b>两年融资超100亿美元，贝索斯重仓</b></p>\n<p><b>但至今营收为零</b></p>\n<p>很多人对于Rivian依然陌生，它凭什么撑起动辄<b>4000亿</b>估值？</p>\n<p>从官网来看，Rivian是一家致力于电动汽车设计、开发和制造的企业，使命是“让世界永远充满冒险精神”。这是近年来垂直整合程度最高的电动汽车制造商之一，打造了专属的充电基础设施网络，与特斯拉的超级充电站类似。针对C端消费者市场和B端商用市场，Rivian已累计推出高端电动皮卡R1T、SUV R1S和EDV系列商用电动货车。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a94b83e3fea340a9f6d7ce904e6d8916\" tg-width=\"554\" tg-height=\"179\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p>\n<p>如果从销售数据来看，Rivian的天价估值让人有些难以理解。因为与许多电动车初创企业一样，Rivian目前仍处于交付的初始阶段。招股书披露，Rivian 第一辆R1T电动皮卡于今年9月14日从伊利诺伊州工厂下线，截至10月底，公司生产和交付数据分别仅为<b>180</b>辆和<b>156</b>辆，并且所交付用户几乎全部为公司员工，这与“老大哥”特斯拉相比实在是相差甚远。</p>\n<p>但Rivian的预订数据却颇为亮眼。截至10月底，美国和加拿大用户已经预定了Rivian的R1T皮卡和R1S SUV共计约<b>5.54万</b>辆，公司预计能够在2023年底完全交付。</p>\n<p>据介绍，售价<b>6.7万美元</b>起的R1T，拥有一套全面的车载信息娱乐系统，标配了高级驾驶辅助系统和自动紧急制动、车道保持辅助、高速公路辅助和停车辅助等功能，与特斯拉提供的技术非常接近。并且还独特性的打造了“齿轮通道”功能，在驾驶室和车厢之间设置了储物空间，让用户可以从皮卡外部进入。</p>\n<p>由于Rivian的目标用户是户外运动和休闲爱好者，因此该公司已经在7个州确定了24个“Rivian探险网络”直流快速充电站，以及在30个州确定了145个“Rivian道路点”充电站。</p>\n<p>为了应对生产计划，Rivian位于伊利诺伊州的工厂会将产能在2023年提高到年产20万辆，第二家美国工厂也将于 2024 年投产；同时，Rivian也正在欧洲寻找新的地点，预计从2023年开始在欧洲生产汽车。</p>\n<p>但Rivian在招股书中也坦承，“目前为止尚未获得实质性收入”，并面临着巨额亏损。招股书显示，Rivian在2019年、2020年运营亏损分别为4.09亿美元、10.21亿美元；2021年上半年运营亏损为9.94亿美元且营收为0。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e2bb76a7f6eca7cd7dcfda9f6017d016\" tg-width=\"554\" tg-height=\"383\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p>\n<p>实际上Rivian并不差钱，它背后站着一大批知名投资方。</p>\n<p>据投资界不完全统计，自2019年开启首轮融资计划后，Rivian至今已完成<b>7轮融资</b>，金额总计超过<b>100亿美元</b>，堪称全球最吸金的超级独角兽之一。投资阵容包括了亚马逊、福特和黑石、 T. Rowe Price Group、Soros Fund Management、Fidelity Investments以及Baron Capital Group。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7ea589bc7e07f8c51fc4d1d2902b99cd\" tg-width=\"554\" tg-height=\"169\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p>\n<p>招股书披露，Rivian在2019年2月获得了由亚马逊领投的7亿美元A轮融资，这一年也是Rivian融资最频繁的一年，一口气完成了四轮融资。其中还有一个小插曲，福特与通用汽车均想参与Rivian的融资，双方分别与Rivian展开了多次谈判，最终因为通用汽车的要求过于强势，而让福特成功拿到了份额。</p>\n<p>随后在2020年7月，Rivian宣布完成<b>25亿</b>美元E轮融资，由T.Rowe Price Associates领投，新的投资者还包括 Soros Fund Management LLC、Coatue、Fidelity Management and Research Company、Baron Capital Group，亚马逊和黑石继续跟投。</p>\n<p>今年，Rivian又连续完成了两轮融资，最近的是今年7月的一笔25亿美元融资，领投方为亚马逊、福特、T. Rowe Price和D1 Capital Partners。其他参投方还包括Third Point、富达、Dragoneer Investment Group和Coatue。</p>\n<p><b>值得一提的是，</b>作为最大的机构投资方，亚马逊还从Rivian订购了10万辆商用电动货车，载货空间分别为<b>500、700</b>和<b>900</b>立方英尺，将于今年年底开始交付。众所周知，亚马逊创始人贝索斯与特斯拉创始人马斯克同为老对手，二者在商业航天领域激战正酣。现在，战火又烧到了电动车，贝索斯能否凭借Rivian迎头赶上，值得期待。</p>\n<p><b>全球造车江湖沸腾</b></p>\n<p><b>特斯拉成神话，宁德时代出手凶猛</b></p>\n<p>2021年即将过去，但全球造车依然凶猛。</p>\n<p>这一年，<b>特斯拉的市值狂飙不止，被戏称“宇宙最强”</b>。今年以来，特斯拉股价已经上涨超过70%，并在10月25日成为首家市值突破万亿美元的车企。从1000亿美元来到10000亿美元，特斯拉只用了21个月。截止美股最新收盘，特斯拉市值已经刷新到1.17万亿美元，几乎超过美股全部主要车企的市值总和。</p>\n<p>与此同时，特斯拉中国10月份销量数据也正式出炉，批发销量再次突破5万辆，达到54391辆，同比增长245%。而掌舵人马斯克个人财富也极速暴增至3000亿美元，成为全球首富。</p>\n<p>特斯拉的神话，让人垂涎不已，也搅动了全球造车江湖。围攻特斯拉，开始成为蔚然壮观的一幕。</p>\n<p>先看美国——今年7月，来自美国的造车新势力<b>Lucid Motors</b>通过SPAC方式登陆纳斯达克，最新市值达到743亿美元。这家公司由特斯拉前副总裁兼董事Bernard Tse和甲骨文前高管Sam Weng于2007年创建。公司的12位高管中，有6位都曾在特斯拉工作过，因此<b>Lucid也被称作是 “特斯拉复仇者联盟”</b>。对标特斯拉，Lucid推出的Air Dream版豪华电动轿车也于10月底开始正式交付，截至目前获得了超过13000辆的订单。</p>\n<p>就在Lucid上市的同月，由贾跃亭一手创立的FF，一辆车还没造出来却也成功挂牌纳斯达克，最新市值为27.6亿美元。上市之后的FF也迎来了里程碑，旗下位于汉福德的工厂10月下旬宣布，支持准量产车生产的产线安装完成，将保证FF 91于2022年7月按时交付。就在两天前，贾跃亭还与马斯克在社交平台上相互致敬。马斯克在社交媒体上承认贾跃亭创办的FF是竞争对手，贾跃亭则回应：“我们是人类科学发展历程中的战友而不是竞争对手。”</p>\n<p>而放眼国内，除去蔚来、小鹏、理想等一众新势力，最具震撼力的巨头也开始造车了。</p>\n<p>这便是万亿“宁王”——<b>宁德时代</b>。昨晚（11月8日），宁德时代官宣将参与D2轮融资，战略投资<b>哪吒汽车</b>，并在技术研发和供应链保障领域开启战略合作。按照协议，宁德时代在为哪吒汽车提供配套动力电池之外，还将与哪吒汽车共同研发新能源汽车创新集成技术。</p>\n<p>令人惊讶的是，这距离宁德时代宣布入股造车独角兽<b>阿维塔</b>，仅仅过去三天而已。11月5日，长安汽车旗下子公司阿维塔科技宣布获得首轮24.2亿战略融资，引入的投资方包括：宁德时代、福建闽东、重庆承安、两江西证、南方资产、南方工业基金等，堪称豪华。其交易完成后，宁德时代联合体持股28.99%，将成为阿维塔科技的第二大股东。</p>\n<p>在此之前，宁德时代还曾投资过另一造车新势力——<b>爱驰汽车</b>。今年5月，宁德时代通过全资子公司宁波梅山保税港区问鼎投资有限公司入股爱驰汽车，占股0.3。此外，在8月份，宁德时代还曾与英特尔资本、B站、博裕资本等共同出资了吉利控股集团的新品牌极氪汽车，金额5亿美元。</p>\n<p>似乎没有什么能够挡住大佬造车的脚步。今年，包含李彦宏、雷军甚至是李一男，一众互联网大佬已杀入造车圈，轰轰烈烈。造车向来是一门苦活，但这些早已实现财富自由的大佬，却在中年时毅然投身造车，并非简单调侃一句“人傻钱多”。</p>\n<p>说到底，新能源汽车背后是一场时代之战，可能远远超出了汽车本身。当下，一场关乎关乎人类命运的能源革命呼啸而来，我们幸运地站在了时代交替的节点，而<b>新能源汽车凭借着最大的应用场景成为了“兵家必争之地”</b>。但造车不止于车，这更是一场攸关未来的竞赛，没有一个人愿意掉队。</p>","source":"lsy1628735874644","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; 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height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n今年最大IPO来了，估值4000亿\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-11-09 16:30 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/jentLKgV_XqxZqK1IpswJg><strong>天天IPO</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>造车运动，依旧轰轰烈烈。\n\n今年最大的IPO即将诞生。\n投资界消息，美国明星车企Rivian将于11月10日登陆纳斯达克，股票代码为RIVN。本次IPO，Rivian计划以每股72-74美元的价格出售1.35亿股，用来筹集接近100亿美元资金。以此计算，Rivian的市值将会超过650亿美元，成为全美历史上第七大IPO。\n对于大多数人来说，Rivian显得遥远陌生，但这是特斯拉目前在美国最强劲的...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/jentLKgV_XqxZqK1IpswJg\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6bae1528cb334b87a01d5932702db806","relate_stocks":{"RIVN":"Rivian Automotive, Inc."},"source_url":"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/jentLKgV_XqxZqK1IpswJg","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1187443455","content_text":"造车运动，依旧轰轰烈烈。\n\n今年最大的IPO即将诞生。\n投资界消息，美国明星车企Rivian将于11月10日登陆纳斯达克，股票代码为RIVN。本次IPO，Rivian计划以每股72-74美元的价格出售1.35亿股，用来筹集接近100亿美元资金。以此计算，Rivian的市值将会超过650亿美元，成为全美历史上第七大IPO。\n对于大多数人来说，Rivian显得遥远陌生，但这是特斯拉目前在美国最强劲的对手之一。其故事要从一位80后博士R.J.斯卡林格（简称“R.J.”）说起。他从小就有一个汽车梦，长大后进入麻省理工攻读机械专业硕博学位。2009年，毕业后的R.J.回到家乡创业，几经挫折后创办了Rivian，最后凭借着一款轻型电动卡车爆红。\nRivian被亚马逊创始人贝索斯寄予了厚望。2019年，亚马逊领投了Rivian的7亿美元A轮融资，自此Rivian开启了融资狂奔之路，迄今至少融资7轮，累计金额超100亿美元，投资方阵容豪华——亚马逊多次押注，福特击败通用拿到份额，黑石也来了，更有一众财大气粗的财团。\n透过Rivian，我们看到了全球造车风起云涌。几乎同一时间，国内造车江湖也迎来了一位极具震撼的玩家——宁德时代，三天内先后官宣投资两只造车独角兽：阿维塔科技和哪吒汽车，都是大手笔。这场造车竞赛，依然轰轰烈烈。\n80后麻省理工博士造车\n凭借电动卡车挑战特斯拉，估值4000亿\n这只超级猛兽背后，站着一位80后创始人。\n1983年，R.J.斯卡林格出生于美国佛罗里达州墨尔本的印第安河畔。他打小就是个超级车迷，小时候经常在邻居家车库里帮忙，期间做过许多疯狂的事。譬如，他曾帮助邻居修复对方的保时捷356s，还曾在中学时代自主造过汽车引擎。从那时起，R.J.萌发了创办属于自己汽车品牌的念头。\n\n怀抱这样的理想，他决心通过学习工程学来圆梦。于是，R.J.从美国伦斯勒理工学院本科毕业后，便前往麻省理工学院久负盛名的斯隆汽车实验室（Sloan Automotive Lab）攻读硕博学位。2009年，R.J.成功获得了机械工程博士学位，同时也掌握了制造自己想象中的汽车所需的技能。也是这一年，26岁的R.J.回到老家创办了一家小型车企Mainstream Motors，后来这家公司更名为Rivian，名字正是源自他童年时代的居住地Indian River。\nRivian成立前四年，R.J.一直专注于生产高效内燃机，试图打造一款双门四座、平价又省油的跑车R1。不过事与愿违。当时，R.J.没钱、没人、没技术且没生产工厂更没供应商，仅仅依靠自己的麻省理工博士口碑以及家人朋友提供的启动资金，造车这条路走不通了。他曾回忆，“在Rivian早期，我们遇到了一个岔路口，是继续坚持，希望奇迹发生，能够融更多钱扩展？还是放弃，把失败经验应用到新领域？”\n意识到危机，R.J.决定谋求转型。彼时因气候变化，能源危机与环境保护逐渐成为全球热议的论题。R.J.也意识到了其中的危害，他曾说，“我知道我所热爱的东西使得空气变得更脏，并引起了各种各样的问题，从地缘政治冲突到烟雾弥漫再到气候变化，这所有的一切都令人沮丧。”\n于是，他调整了新的发展方向：从专注传统燃油车，转向研发环保的电动车。2012年，Rivian结束了轿跑项目，开始转型走向户外等亲近自然的场所。但是当时美国电动汽车市场被特斯拉占据，一个名不见经传的小车企想要从中开辟自己的天地，难度极高。幸运的是，R.J.和他的团队通过考察美国本土的实际市场发现了特斯拉缺位的新领域——轻型电动卡车。有意思的是，卡车不仅是美国人的挚爱，其市场规模较传统汽车也更大、利润更高。\n\n确定了新路径，R.J.并未冲动，这一次他选择慢慢来。第一步，R.J.将公司从家乡墨尔本迁移到了美国著名的汽车之都底特律附近的普利茅斯；之后，他在2017年以1600万美元的价格收购了距离芝加哥以南几小时车程的Normal市前三菱工厂。谈及选址原因，他曾说，“因为这里距离汽车制造行业的人才更近。”自此，他开始专注研发。\n一件事成功之前，往往都有着一段长期的沉默期。对于R.J.而言，这个沉默是十年。自2009年创办以来，R.J.带领着Rivian在汽车领域鏖战，鲜少站到聚光灯下。直至2018年，转机悄然到来。\n2018年11月，洛杉矶车展上，一直沉默研发的Rivian破天荒地亮相多款电动卡车与电动SUV，其中就包括今年9月已开始交付的R1T。这之后，相对低调的Rivian瞬间引爆全美，赢得亚马逊、福特公司、Cox等巨头的拥趸，其累计融资金额已超过100亿美元。\n\n如今，Rivian一跃成为了特斯拉最强劲的对手，也即将迎来IPO敲钟，估值达650亿美元（4100亿元）。一旦成功上市，Rivian将成为美国过去十年来的第七大IPO，也将成为2021年至今最大的IPO。\n两年融资超100亿美元，贝索斯重仓\n但至今营收为零\n很多人对于Rivian依然陌生，它凭什么撑起动辄4000亿估值？\n从官网来看，Rivian是一家致力于电动汽车设计、开发和制造的企业，使命是“让世界永远充满冒险精神”。这是近年来垂直整合程度最高的电动汽车制造商之一，打造了专属的充电基础设施网络，与特斯拉的超级充电站类似。针对C端消费者市场和B端商用市场，Rivian已累计推出高端电动皮卡R1T、SUV R1S和EDV系列商用电动货车。\n\n如果从销售数据来看，Rivian的天价估值让人有些难以理解。因为与许多电动车初创企业一样，Rivian目前仍处于交付的初始阶段。招股书披露，Rivian 第一辆R1T电动皮卡于今年9月14日从伊利诺伊州工厂下线，截至10月底，公司生产和交付数据分别仅为180辆和156辆，并且所交付用户几乎全部为公司员工，这与“老大哥”特斯拉相比实在是相差甚远。\n但Rivian的预订数据却颇为亮眼。截至10月底，美国和加拿大用户已经预定了Rivian的R1T皮卡和R1S SUV共计约5.54万辆，公司预计能够在2023年底完全交付。\n据介绍，售价6.7万美元起的R1T，拥有一套全面的车载信息娱乐系统，标配了高级驾驶辅助系统和自动紧急制动、车道保持辅助、高速公路辅助和停车辅助等功能，与特斯拉提供的技术非常接近。并且还独特性的打造了“齿轮通道”功能，在驾驶室和车厢之间设置了储物空间，让用户可以从皮卡外部进入。\n由于Rivian的目标用户是户外运动和休闲爱好者，因此该公司已经在7个州确定了24个“Rivian探险网络”直流快速充电站，以及在30个州确定了145个“Rivian道路点”充电站。\n为了应对生产计划，Rivian位于伊利诺伊州的工厂会将产能在2023年提高到年产20万辆，第二家美国工厂也将于 2024 年投产；同时，Rivian也正在欧洲寻找新的地点，预计从2023年开始在欧洲生产汽车。\n但Rivian在招股书中也坦承，“目前为止尚未获得实质性收入”，并面临着巨额亏损。招股书显示，Rivian在2019年、2020年运营亏损分别为4.09亿美元、10.21亿美元；2021年上半年运营亏损为9.94亿美元且营收为0。\n\n实际上Rivian并不差钱，它背后站着一大批知名投资方。\n据投资界不完全统计，自2019年开启首轮融资计划后，Rivian至今已完成7轮融资，金额总计超过100亿美元，堪称全球最吸金的超级独角兽之一。投资阵容包括了亚马逊、福特和黑石、 T. Rowe Price Group、Soros Fund Management、Fidelity Investments以及Baron Capital Group。\n\n招股书披露，Rivian在2019年2月获得了由亚马逊领投的7亿美元A轮融资，这一年也是Rivian融资最频繁的一年，一口气完成了四轮融资。其中还有一个小插曲，福特与通用汽车均想参与Rivian的融资，双方分别与Rivian展开了多次谈判，最终因为通用汽车的要求过于强势，而让福特成功拿到了份额。\n随后在2020年7月，Rivian宣布完成25亿美元E轮融资，由T.Rowe Price Associates领投，新的投资者还包括 Soros Fund Management LLC、Coatue、Fidelity Management and Research Company、Baron Capital Group，亚马逊和黑石继续跟投。\n今年，Rivian又连续完成了两轮融资，最近的是今年7月的一笔25亿美元融资，领投方为亚马逊、福特、T. Rowe Price和D1 Capital Partners。其他参投方还包括Third Point、富达、Dragoneer Investment Group和Coatue。\n值得一提的是，作为最大的机构投资方，亚马逊还从Rivian订购了10万辆商用电动货车，载货空间分别为500、700和900立方英尺，将于今年年底开始交付。众所周知，亚马逊创始人贝索斯与特斯拉创始人马斯克同为老对手，二者在商业航天领域激战正酣。现在，战火又烧到了电动车，贝索斯能否凭借Rivian迎头赶上，值得期待。\n全球造车江湖沸腾\n特斯拉成神话，宁德时代出手凶猛\n2021年即将过去，但全球造车依然凶猛。\n这一年，特斯拉的市值狂飙不止，被戏称“宇宙最强”。今年以来，特斯拉股价已经上涨超过70%，并在10月25日成为首家市值突破万亿美元的车企。从1000亿美元来到10000亿美元，特斯拉只用了21个月。截止美股最新收盘，特斯拉市值已经刷新到1.17万亿美元，几乎超过美股全部主要车企的市值总和。\n与此同时，特斯拉中国10月份销量数据也正式出炉，批发销量再次突破5万辆，达到54391辆，同比增长245%。而掌舵人马斯克个人财富也极速暴增至3000亿美元，成为全球首富。\n特斯拉的神话，让人垂涎不已，也搅动了全球造车江湖。围攻特斯拉，开始成为蔚然壮观的一幕。\n先看美国——今年7月，来自美国的造车新势力Lucid Motors通过SPAC方式登陆纳斯达克，最新市值达到743亿美元。这家公司由特斯拉前副总裁兼董事Bernard Tse和甲骨文前高管Sam Weng于2007年创建。公司的12位高管中，有6位都曾在特斯拉工作过，因此Lucid也被称作是 “特斯拉复仇者联盟”。对标特斯拉，Lucid推出的Air Dream版豪华电动轿车也于10月底开始正式交付，截至目前获得了超过13000辆的订单。\n就在Lucid上市的同月，由贾跃亭一手创立的FF，一辆车还没造出来却也成功挂牌纳斯达克，最新市值为27.6亿美元。上市之后的FF也迎来了里程碑，旗下位于汉福德的工厂10月下旬宣布，支持准量产车生产的产线安装完成，将保证FF 91于2022年7月按时交付。就在两天前，贾跃亭还与马斯克在社交平台上相互致敬。马斯克在社交媒体上承认贾跃亭创办的FF是竞争对手，贾跃亭则回应：“我们是人类科学发展历程中的战友而不是竞争对手。”\n而放眼国内，除去蔚来、小鹏、理想等一众新势力，最具震撼力的巨头也开始造车了。\n这便是万亿“宁王”——宁德时代。昨晚（11月8日），宁德时代官宣将参与D2轮融资，战略投资哪吒汽车，并在技术研发和供应链保障领域开启战略合作。按照协议，宁德时代在为哪吒汽车提供配套动力电池之外，还将与哪吒汽车共同研发新能源汽车创新集成技术。\n令人惊讶的是，这距离宁德时代宣布入股造车独角兽阿维塔，仅仅过去三天而已。11月5日，长安汽车旗下子公司阿维塔科技宣布获得首轮24.2亿战略融资，引入的投资方包括：宁德时代、福建闽东、重庆承安、两江西证、南方资产、南方工业基金等，堪称豪华。其交易完成后，宁德时代联合体持股28.99%，将成为阿维塔科技的第二大股东。\n在此之前，宁德时代还曾投资过另一造车新势力——爱驰汽车。今年5月，宁德时代通过全资子公司宁波梅山保税港区问鼎投资有限公司入股爱驰汽车，占股0.3。此外，在8月份，宁德时代还曾与英特尔资本、B站、博裕资本等共同出资了吉利控股集团的新品牌极氪汽车，金额5亿美元。\n似乎没有什么能够挡住大佬造车的脚步。今年，包含李彦宏、雷军甚至是李一男，一众互联网大佬已杀入造车圈，轰轰烈烈。造车向来是一门苦活，但这些早已实现财富自由的大佬，却在中年时毅然投身造车，并非简单调侃一句“人傻钱多”。\n说到底，新能源汽车背后是一场时代之战，可能远远超出了汽车本身。当下，一场关乎关乎人类命运的能源革命呼啸而来，我们幸运地站在了时代交替的节点，而新能源汽车凭借着最大的应用场景成为了“兵家必争之地”。但造车不止于车，这更是一场攸关未来的竞赛，没有一个人愿意掉队。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1153,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":846380938,"gmtCreate":1636050762446,"gmtModify":1636050762446,"author":{"id":"3563856816165145","authorId":"3563856816165145","name":"MiloDing","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/54f4e8ed7942e6adfa985be108468840","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3563856816165145","idStr":"3563856816165145"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看","listText":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看","text":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/846380938","repostId":"2180579520","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2180579520","pubTimestamp":1636034524,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2180579520?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-11-04 22:02","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Prediction: These Will Be the 10 Largest Stocks by 2035","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2180579520","media":"Motley Fool","summary":"While I can't predict the future, it's sure fun to try.","content":"<p>How in the world can anybody predict the top stocks of 2035?</p>\n<p>When developing a potential list, the first thing I did was go backward and look at the top 10 stocks of 2005. They were: 1. <b>General Electric</b>, 2. <b>ExxonMobil</b>, 3. <b>Microsoft</b>, 4. <b>Citigroup</b>, 5. <b>Procter &amp; Gamble</b>, 6. <b>Walmart</b>, 7. <b>Bank of America</b>, 8. <b>Johnson &amp; Johnson</b>, 9. <b>American International Group</b>, and 10. <b>Pfizer</b>.</p>\n<p>Many of those stocks have gone sideways or dropped precipitously over the last 15 years. Microsoft is the sole survivor in the current top 10 list. And it's now the biggest company in the world, with a $2.5 trillion market cap. Apparently, Marc Andreessen was right when he predicted that software will eat the world.</p>\n<p>I believe this trend will continue. And the strongest stocks will be those technology leaders that provide services that humanity deems essential. So here are my picks for the top 10 stocks of 2035.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://g.foolcdn.com/image/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fg.foolcdn.com%2Feditorial%2Fimages%2F647178%2Fgettyimages-625905650.jpg&amp;w=700&amp;op=resize\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"467\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Image source: Getty Images.</span></p>\n<h2>10. Airbnb (current market cap: $110 billion)</h2>\n<p><b>Airbnb </b>(NASDAQ:ABNB) is the smallest stock on this list, and it would probably have to go up at least 30 times in value to make the top 10 of 2035. A 40-bagger or a 50-bagger may even be required to make the list. Could Airbnb pull off this magnificent feat?</p>\n<p>I'm bullish because Airbnb is going after truly massive markets. The company estimates its total addressable market at $3.4 trillion. Most of your large software companies have much smaller market opportunities.</p>\n<p>Airbnb is not selling technology. It's using technology to allow consumers to visit and stay anywhere around the world. Airbnb is revolutionizing how we travel. And because of the network effect, no other tech company will be able to dislodge it from its catbird seat.</p>\n<h2>9. Tesla (current market cap: $1.15 trillion)</h2>\n<p><b>Tesla&nbsp;</b>(NASDAQ:TSLA) is already in the top 10 now. So the question is not whether it can make the top 10 over the next decade and a half, but whether it can stay there. I say it can, because of its dominant mindshare in <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE.U\">one</a> of the most important innovations in the 21st century: the electric car.</p>\n<p>If you look back from now, one thing that struck me is how important oil was. In 1999, the height of the dot-com bubble, <b>ExxonMobil</b>&nbsp;and&nbsp;<b>BP&nbsp;</b>were two of the biggest stocks in the world. When the financial crisis hit in 2009, two more oil stocks joined their ranks:&nbsp;<b>PetroChina&nbsp;</b>and&nbsp;<b>Petrobras</b>.</p>\n<p>All of those stocks have dropped off of today's top 10. I believe oil will continue to recede in importance, and&nbsp;<b>Saudi Aramco&nbsp;</b>will drop out as well. Meanwhile, Tesla will survive and thrive.</p>\n<h2>8. Sea Limited (current market cap: $194 billion)</h2>\n<p>I am perhaps biased in thinking that American companies will continue to dominate the world economy 15 years from now. I am pessimistic on Chinese stocks. But there is a company that is surviving and thriving in Asia. And that is Singapore-based&nbsp;<b>Sea Limited </b>(NYSE:SE).</p>\n<p>Sea has a ferocious appetite for growth. Since its initial public offering in 2017, the stock has gone up 20-fold. Sea has led the way with its freemium model in mobile gaming and its No. 1 game for the smartphone, <i>Free Fire</i>.</p>\n<p>After establishing a gaming foothold in a new market, Sea introduces its shopping platform, Shopee, and its payments arm, SeaMoney. Sea is dominant not just in Asian markets but is also emerging as a winner in South America and India. This is a beautiful tech stock in emerging markets. And I believe Sea is perhaps the only internet company in the world that can give <b>Amazon&nbsp;</b>(NASDAQ:AMZN) a run for its money.</p>\n<h2>7. Apple (current market cap: $2.45 trillion)</h2>\n<p><b>Apple</b> (NASDAQ:AAPL) has a heck of a head start over the rest of the stock universe. Airbnb can go up 20 times in value, and it will still be smaller than Apple is today. It would not surprise me at all, however, if Apple were to lose its top 10 spot over the next decade. Apple makes a lot of money off its App Store and all the fees it charges software companies for access. I think it's likely that Apple will start seeing serious antitrust scrutiny over its business model, similar to what Microsoft saw two decades ago.</p>\n<p>Nonetheless, I remain bullish on Apple and its dominance of consumer hardware. The company's brand power is unrivaled. And if CEO Tim Cook is even half-right about the importance of virtual reality and augmented reality, Apple will cement its top 10 status in the future -- and then some.</p>\n<h2>6. Square (current market cap: $116 billion)</h2>\n<p>I am very bullish on&nbsp;<b>Square&nbsp;</b>(NYSE:SQ). The fintech revolution is in its early days. Square is definitely riding a crypto wave. But the company is also revolutionizing the banking industry. Square has huge informational advantages over traditional banks. The company has so many data points in regard to all the companies in its network. Square also has access to your company's sales numbers and can easily and quickly gauge the risk in making you a loan. This advantage in speed and accuracy over the traditional banks will make Square the biggest financial stock over the next decade and a half.</p>\n<h2>5. Waymo (current market cap: unknown)</h2>\n<p>I believe at some point&nbsp;<b>Alphabet </b>(NASDAQ: GOOG) (NASDAQ:GOOGL) will spin out its autonomous car division, and Waymo will surge past its parent. And while it may have competitors, such as Cruise, a division of <b>General Motors</b>, or perhaps Tesla, I believe Google's AI capabilities will win the day.</p>\n<p>The real competition might not come from the land, but from the air. Electric air taxi service&nbsp;<b>Joby Aviation</b>, with collaborators including <b>Uber</b>, <b>Toyota</b>, and the U.S. Air Force, may ultimately give Waymo a run for its money as ground traffic forces man into the air.</p>\n<h2>4. Shopify (current market cap: $184.98 billion)</h2>\n<p><b>Shopify&nbsp;</b>(NYSE:SHOP) is arguably the most important software company in the world. The company is synonymous with internet commerce and giving small business owners the means and ability to compete with mighty Amazon. Shopify's stock has been ridiculous since its IPO, up almost 6,000% in six years.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5b599764170eebde8b14fa4f1e5932cd\" tg-width=\"720\" tg-height=\"449\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>SHOP data by YCharts</span></p>\n<p>This dramatic rise will continue because Shopify's market opportunity is so gigantic. The retailing market is $25 trillion or so right now. More and more shopping will shift online, and Shopify will be the tech engine that makes this all happen. Shopify may very well pass Amazon in market size one day.</p>\n<h2>3. Nvidia (current market cap: $659.1 billion)</h2>\n<p>While <b>Nvidia </b>(NASDAQ:NVDA) is not yet in the trillion-dollar club, the chipmaker is already one of the 10 largest companies in the world. The company's chips are already key in gaming, mobile, and automotive markets. But it's the company's forays into computer chips for artificial intelligence that caused the stock to shoot into the stratosphere.</p>\n<h2>2. SpaceX (current market cap: unknown)</h2>\n<p>While Elon Musk's space travel company is still private, in its latest funding round the company was valued at $100 billion. Right now the company has two major projects: Starlink and Starship. It's entirely possible that Musk will spin out Starlink as a separate entity. He has said that will do so when its cash flows are more predictable. At a tech conference last year, Musk estimated the market opportunity for putting satellites into space at $3 billion a year, while providing broadband internet would perhaps add another $30 billion in annual revenue.</p>\n<p>It appears to me that SpaceX is now dominating the race for space, and I believe this company will receive crazy valuations if and when it ever comes public. The upside really is unlimited.</p>\n<h2>1. Amazon (current market cap: $1.6 trillion)</h2>\n<p>Amazon is not a sure thing, of course -- no company is. The king of internet retail is facing competition from a sea of mom-and-pop outfits, powered by Shopify. And even Amazon Web Services is facing competitive threats. Amazon is currently dividing its cloud pie with tech giants Alphabet and Microsoft. But perhaps the real competition will come from <b>DigitalOcean</b>, the hugely popular provider of cheap, customer-friendly cloud services.</p>\n<p>Nonetheless, Amazon will adapt and overcome, finding more and more sources of revenue in the future. Outside of Apple, this is the strongest consumer brand on this list. Amazon has powerful mindshare, and its markets are so large, it's unlikely to see much in the way of antitrust scrutiny. This company has perhaps more optionality than any other company in the world. And that's why Amazon is my pick for the No. 1 stock of 2035.</p>","source":"fool_stock","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Prediction: These Will Be the 10 Largest Stocks by 2035</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nPrediction: These Will Be the 10 Largest Stocks by 2035\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-11-04 22:02 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/11/04/prediction-these-will-be-10-largest-stocks-2035/><strong>Motley Fool</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>How in the world can anybody predict the top stocks of 2035?\nWhen developing a potential list, the first thing I did was go backward and look at the top 10 stocks of 2005. They were: 1. General ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/11/04/prediction-these-will-be-10-largest-stocks-2035/\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/11/04/prediction-these-will-be-10-largest-stocks-2035/","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2180579520","content_text":"How in the world can anybody predict the top stocks of 2035?\nWhen developing a potential list, the first thing I did was go backward and look at the top 10 stocks of 2005. They were: 1. General Electric, 2. ExxonMobil, 3. Microsoft, 4. Citigroup, 5. Procter & Gamble, 6. Walmart, 7. Bank of America, 8. Johnson & Johnson, 9. American International Group, and 10. Pfizer.\nMany of those stocks have gone sideways or dropped precipitously over the last 15 years. Microsoft is the sole survivor in the current top 10 list. And it's now the biggest company in the world, with a $2.5 trillion market cap. Apparently, Marc Andreessen was right when he predicted that software will eat the world.\nI believe this trend will continue. And the strongest stocks will be those technology leaders that provide services that humanity deems essential. So here are my picks for the top 10 stocks of 2035.\nImage source: Getty Images.\n10. Airbnb (current market cap: $110 billion)\nAirbnb (NASDAQ:ABNB) is the smallest stock on this list, and it would probably have to go up at least 30 times in value to make the top 10 of 2035. A 40-bagger or a 50-bagger may even be required to make the list. Could Airbnb pull off this magnificent feat?\nI'm bullish because Airbnb is going after truly massive markets. The company estimates its total addressable market at $3.4 trillion. Most of your large software companies have much smaller market opportunities.\nAirbnb is not selling technology. It's using technology to allow consumers to visit and stay anywhere around the world. Airbnb is revolutionizing how we travel. And because of the network effect, no other tech company will be able to dislodge it from its catbird seat.\n9. Tesla (current market cap: $1.15 trillion)\nTesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) is already in the top 10 now. So the question is not whether it can make the top 10 over the next decade and a half, but whether it can stay there. I say it can, because of its dominant mindshare in one of the most important innovations in the 21st century: the electric car.\nIf you look back from now, one thing that struck me is how important oil was. In 1999, the height of the dot-com bubble, ExxonMobil and BP were two of the biggest stocks in the world. When the financial crisis hit in 2009, two more oil stocks joined their ranks: PetroChina and Petrobras.\nAll of those stocks have dropped off of today's top 10. I believe oil will continue to recede in importance, and Saudi Aramco will drop out as well. Meanwhile, Tesla will survive and thrive.\n8. Sea Limited (current market cap: $194 billion)\nI am perhaps biased in thinking that American companies will continue to dominate the world economy 15 years from now. I am pessimistic on Chinese stocks. But there is a company that is surviving and thriving in Asia. And that is Singapore-based Sea Limited (NYSE:SE).\nSea has a ferocious appetite for growth. Since its initial public offering in 2017, the stock has gone up 20-fold. Sea has led the way with its freemium model in mobile gaming and its No. 1 game for the smartphone, Free Fire.\nAfter establishing a gaming foothold in a new market, Sea introduces its shopping platform, Shopee, and its payments arm, SeaMoney. Sea is dominant not just in Asian markets but is also emerging as a winner in South America and India. This is a beautiful tech stock in emerging markets. And I believe Sea is perhaps the only internet company in the world that can give Amazon (NASDAQ:AMZN) a run for its money.\n7. Apple (current market cap: $2.45 trillion)\nApple (NASDAQ:AAPL) has a heck of a head start over the rest of the stock universe. Airbnb can go up 20 times in value, and it will still be smaller than Apple is today. It would not surprise me at all, however, if Apple were to lose its top 10 spot over the next decade. Apple makes a lot of money off its App Store and all the fees it charges software companies for access. I think it's likely that Apple will start seeing serious antitrust scrutiny over its business model, similar to what Microsoft saw two decades ago.\nNonetheless, I remain bullish on Apple and its dominance of consumer hardware. The company's brand power is unrivaled. And if CEO Tim Cook is even half-right about the importance of virtual reality and augmented reality, Apple will cement its top 10 status in the future -- and then some.\n6. Square (current market cap: $116 billion)\nI am very bullish on Square (NYSE:SQ). The fintech revolution is in its early days. Square is definitely riding a crypto wave. But the company is also revolutionizing the banking industry. Square has huge informational advantages over traditional banks. The company has so many data points in regard to all the companies in its network. Square also has access to your company's sales numbers and can easily and quickly gauge the risk in making you a loan. This advantage in speed and accuracy over the traditional banks will make Square the biggest financial stock over the next decade and a half.\n5. Waymo (current market cap: unknown)\nI believe at some point Alphabet (NASDAQ: GOOG) (NASDAQ:GOOGL) will spin out its autonomous car division, and Waymo will surge past its parent. And while it may have competitors, such as Cruise, a division of General Motors, or perhaps Tesla, I believe Google's AI capabilities will win the day.\nThe real competition might not come from the land, but from the air. Electric air taxi service Joby Aviation, with collaborators including Uber, Toyota, and the U.S. Air Force, may ultimately give Waymo a run for its money as ground traffic forces man into the air.\n4. Shopify (current market cap: $184.98 billion)\nShopify (NYSE:SHOP) is arguably the most important software company in the world. The company is synonymous with internet commerce and giving small business owners the means and ability to compete with mighty Amazon. Shopify's stock has been ridiculous since its IPO, up almost 6,000% in six years.\nSHOP data by YCharts\nThis dramatic rise will continue because Shopify's market opportunity is so gigantic. The retailing market is $25 trillion or so right now. More and more shopping will shift online, and Shopify will be the tech engine that makes this all happen. Shopify may very well pass Amazon in market size one day.\n3. Nvidia (current market cap: $659.1 billion)\nWhile Nvidia (NASDAQ:NVDA) is not yet in the trillion-dollar club, the chipmaker is already one of the 10 largest companies in the world. The company's chips are already key in gaming, mobile, and automotive markets. But it's the company's forays into computer chips for artificial intelligence that caused the stock to shoot into the stratosphere.\n2. SpaceX (current market cap: unknown)\nWhile Elon Musk's space travel company is still private, in its latest funding round the company was valued at $100 billion. Right now the company has two major projects: Starlink and Starship. It's entirely possible that Musk will spin out Starlink as a separate entity. He has said that will do so when its cash flows are more predictable. At a tech conference last year, Musk estimated the market opportunity for putting satellites into space at $3 billion a year, while providing broadband internet would perhaps add another $30 billion in annual revenue.\nIt appears to me that SpaceX is now dominating the race for space, and I believe this company will receive crazy valuations if and when it ever comes public. The upside really is unlimited.\n1. Amazon (current market cap: $1.6 trillion)\nAmazon is not a sure thing, of course -- no company is. The king of internet retail is facing competition from a sea of mom-and-pop outfits, powered by Shopify. And even Amazon Web Services is facing competitive threats. Amazon is currently dividing its cloud pie with tech giants Alphabet and Microsoft. But perhaps the real competition will come from DigitalOcean, the hugely popular provider of cheap, customer-friendly cloud services.\nNonetheless, Amazon will adapt and overcome, finding more and more sources of revenue in the future. Outside of Apple, this is the strongest consumer brand on this list. Amazon has powerful mindshare, and its markets are so large, it's unlikely to see much in the way of antitrust scrutiny. This company has perhaps more optionality than any other company in the world. And that's why Amazon is my pick for the No. 1 stock of 2035.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1019,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":849804356,"gmtCreate":1635739497194,"gmtModify":1635739497194,"author":{"id":"3563856816165145","authorId":"3563856816165145","name":"MiloDing","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/54f4e8ed7942e6adfa985be108468840","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3563856816165145","idStr":"3563856816165145"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看","listText":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看","text":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/849804356","repostId":"2179122694","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2179122694","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"致力于提供最及时的财经资讯，最专业的解读分析，覆盖宏观经济、金融机构、A股市场、上市公司、投资理财等财经领域。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"券商中国","id":"9","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d482d56459984e8c86a6a137295b3c4f"},"pubTimestamp":1635733601,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2179122694?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-11-01 10:26","market":"sh","language":"zh","title":"抄底or避险？港股基金仓位分歧巨大，首尾相差超30%","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2179122694","media":"券商中国","summary":"自今年2月份以来，港股发生了较大幅度的调整，港股基金的操作也出现了明显分歧。由于港股跌跌不休，港股基金在今年的日子普遍都不好过，多只基金年内跌幅超15%，甚至有基金仅在三季度的跌幅就达到了20%左右。面对市场回调，从三季报来看，港股基金的股票仓位分歧较大，其中最高的可达94.79%，最低的仅有64.10%，首尾相差超30个百分点。有基金选择通过减仓避险，有基金越跌越买，也有基金选择以不变应万变，保持了仓位和持仓的基本稳定。","content":"<p>自今年2月份以来，港股发生了较大幅度的调整，港股基金的操作也出现了明显分歧。</p>\n<p>由于港股跌跌不休，港股基金在今年的日子普遍都不好过，多只基金年内跌幅超15%，甚至有基金仅在三季度的跌幅就达到了20%左右。有基金经理在三季报中坦言：“感谢各位投资者能在如此煎熬的一个季度继续支持我们的基金，作为管理人，很是感动。”</p>\n<p><b>面对市场回调，从三季报来看，港股基金的股票仓位分歧较大，其中最高的可达94.79%，最低的仅有64.10%，首尾相差超30个百分点。有基金选择通过减仓避险，有基金越跌越买，也有基金选择以不变应万变，保持了仓位和持仓的基本稳定。</b></p>\n<p>具体操作方向，不少港股基金降低了互联网板块的权重，增加了新能源方向的配置。<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/01810\">小米集团-W</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/03690\">美团-W</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00700\">腾讯控股</a>等多只互联网科技股均遭遇了基金较大幅度减持，而<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/02380\">中国电力</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00836\">华润电力</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00916\">龙源电力</a>等多只电力股获得了较多加仓。</p>\n<p>抄底or避险，港股基金仓位出现分歧</p>\n<p>今年三季度，在教育、地产、互联网等行业的政策利空影响下，港股依然疲软，其中恒生指数下跌14.75%，恒生科技指数下跌25.18%。个股方面，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/01024\">快手-W</a>下跌57.55%，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/09626\">哔哩哔哩-SW</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/09988\">阿里巴巴-SW</a>、腾讯控股分别下跌46.97%、35.36%、20.99%。</p>\n<p><b>面对如此大级别的调整，港股基金的操作出现了分歧，有基金选择通过减仓避险，有基金越跌越买，趁着调整在二级市场大量吸筹。</b></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bceab928b6204f73be835bb559b298b6\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"1786\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>例如，“公募一哥”张坤的易方达亚洲精选近期发布了三季报，其股票仓位从二季度末的89.91%上升至92.29%，提高了2个百分点。具体来看，该基金前十大重仓股已经全部为港股，其中加仓了<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600036\">招商银行</a>的港股，使其位列第一大重仓股，此外，腾讯控股、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/09618\">京东集团-SW</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/02319\">蒙牛乳业</a>等多只港股获得加仓，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/02328\">中国财险</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/02202\">万科企业</a>新进易方达亚洲精选的前十大重仓股名单。</p>\n<p>毕凯管理的南方香港优选也大幅提高了股票仓位，该基金的股票市值占基金净值比从88.16%上升至93.55%，提高了5个百分点。大幅回调的快手-W受到了毕凯的青睐，第一次被该基金重仓就直接跃升至第一大重仓股，占基金净值比6.71%，备受政策利空影响的<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/01981\">华夏视听教育</a>也获得了毕凯的大幅加仓。</p>\n<p>毕凯认为，2021年第三季度市场调整比较剧烈，主要是由于中国经济增速边际放缓、消费下行叠加部分行业的政策变化形成的结果。展望未来，压制港股最重要的政策风险已经基本释放完毕，行业政策的调整对于中国经济的长远发展将产生积极影响。</p>\n<p><b>但相比上述基金经理逆势抄底的勇气，持相对谨慎态度的基金经理数量显然更多，约9只港股基金在三季度把股票仓位减少了超5个百分点，甚至有基金减仓近20%。</b></p>\n<p>例如，华夏大<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600675\">中华企业</a>精选的股票仓位从91.39%大幅下降至73.54%，减少了近18个百分点；此外，建信新兴市场优选、华宝致远、嘉实海外中国股票、海富通大中华精选等多只港股基金在三季度大幅减仓，幅度超10个百分点。</p>\n<p>华夏大中华企业精选的基金经理黄芳在三季报中表示，自己对短期政策风险大未来不确定性强的行业个股减仓回避，增持业绩和长期逻辑可持续的公司。具体来看，该基金减持了较多的<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/02020\">安踏体育</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/02331\">李宁</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/02313\">申洲国际</a>、腾讯控股，而<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/06078\">海吉亚医疗</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/06098\">碧桂园服务</a>获得增持。</p>\n<p>整体来看，上述港股基金的股票仓位分歧较大，其中最高的华泰柏瑞<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/A55.SI\">亚洲企业</a>可达94.79%，最低的建信新兴市场优选仅有64.10%，首尾相差超30个百分点。</p>\n<p>减仓互联网，加仓新能源</p>\n<p><b>面对市场调整，在操作方向上，不少港股基金降低了互联网板块的权重，增加了新能源方向的配置。</b></p>\n<p>例如，国富大中华精选的基金经理徐成表示，三季度，香港市场表现一般，总体策略上，本基金降低了互联网板块的权重，增加了新能源运营商的配置。三季报来看，此前的第一大重仓腾讯控股已经退出该基金前十大重仓股，华润电力新进前十大，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/01798\">大唐新能源</a>、龙源电力等获得加仓。</p>\n<p>建信新兴市场优选的基金经理在三季度开始对组合进行了较多调整，增加了港股低估值板块的配置，看好新能源相关板块的发展，积极选择优质的医疗服务和生物医药标的。具体来看，腾讯控股、美团-W、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JD\">京东</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NTES\">网易</a>等多只互联网股均被调出该基金前十大重仓，而<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/03996\">中国能源建设</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00855\">中国水务</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/01811\">中广核新能源</a>取而代之，成为该基金前三大重仓股。</p>\n<p>整体来看，据wind数据统计，三季度以来，小米集团-W、美团-W、腾讯控股等多只互联网科技股均遭遇了基金较大幅度减持。其中小米集团-W被减持股数最多，高达1.78亿股，按照三季度成交均价来计算，小米集团-W被减持了44.69亿元；如果从持股总市值来看，腾讯被基金减持的最多，高达442.03亿元。</p>\n<p><b>而相对应的，中国电力、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00902\">华能国际电力股份</a>、华润电力、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/01816\">中广核电力</a>等多只电力股获得了较多加仓。其中中国电力被基金增持的股数最多，高达7.13亿股，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600011\">华能国际</a>电力股份、华润电力、中广核电力被增持超1.5亿股。</b></p>\n<p>大幅回调后，港股怎么投？</p>\n<p>显然，港股基金在今年的日子并不好过，多只基金年内跌幅超15%，甚至有基金仅在三季度的跌幅就达到了20%左右。面对业绩大幅回调的压力，不少基金经理选择通过三季报与投资者交流投资理念和操作思路。</p>\n<p>例如，华泰柏瑞亚洲企业的基金经理何琦在三季报中坦言：“感谢各位投资者能在如此煎熬的一个季度继续支持我们的基金，作为管理人，很是感动。”</p>\n<p>他表示，港股在差不多经历了3个季度的跌幅，主跌浪大概率已经跌完，后面会是一个慢慢寻底的过程。其中，地产、教育板块见底的概率较大，而金融股随着经济的企稳相信也会慢慢有表现。对于市场最受欢迎的互联网板块，目前底部还不确定，反垄断会不会继续，整体业绩短期会不会因为政策的影响暂时走弱，而这个暂时走弱会不会变成长期影响，我们还需要观察和评估。因此，整个四季度可能是港股未来走势的一个转折点。</p>\n<p><b>政策影响是港股基金三季报的高频词，南方香港成长的基金经理王士聪表示，应对政策变化的底层前提假设是基于：我们相信政策并不是针对某个行业\\公司\\企业家，只是针对某个社会实际问题，进行多方面措施的解决。所以我们关注的是这个问题解决后，该行业的核心商业模式是否受到影响，或是否附带影响到其他行业，影响的程度怎样评估，我们依据以上分析对每个公司进行重新定价，之后再做投资决策。</b></p>\n<p>对于互联网行业，王士聪认为当前情形与2018年非常相似，当时游戏版号暂停半年、内容监管下架大量APP、民办教育促进法征求意见稿出台，但这些政策的本意在行业快速发展到一定阶段后进行规范，以促进行业的更高水平发展，事实证明，出台政策后，网络净化，青少年游戏有效管控，民办高等教育地位得到认可并积极发展；本次政策也是围绕游戏氪金、不良文化引导、反垄断、基层员工利益保护、数据安全等展开，我们相信，在行业规范后，这些行业长期会得到更好的发展，部分公司也会重新恢复增长动力，在更有价值的道路上蓬勃发展。</p>\n<p>华夏大中华企业精选的基金经理黄芳表达了对成长股的看好，她认为，很多成长类企业基本面并未恶化，只是被市场负面情绪影响或被动卖出导致股价大跌，有的甚至砸出“黄金坑”，是逢低买入的好时机。市场极度悲观和恐慌卖出很可能伴随着阶段性底部，悲观情绪过后，好行业优质公司股价将率先反弹。</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE 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}\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n抄底or避险？港股基金仓位分歧巨大，首尾相差超30%\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/9\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/d482d56459984e8c86a6a137295b3c4f);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">券商中国 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2021-11-01 10:26</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>自今年2月份以来，港股发生了较大幅度的调整，港股基金的操作也出现了明显分歧。</p>\n<p>由于港股跌跌不休，港股基金在今年的日子普遍都不好过，多只基金年内跌幅超15%，甚至有基金仅在三季度的跌幅就达到了20%左右。有基金经理在三季报中坦言：“感谢各位投资者能在如此煎熬的一个季度继续支持我们的基金，作为管理人，很是感动。”</p>\n<p><b>面对市场回调，从三季报来看，港股基金的股票仓位分歧较大，其中最高的可达94.79%，最低的仅有64.10%，首尾相差超30个百分点。有基金选择通过减仓避险，有基金越跌越买，也有基金选择以不变应万变，保持了仓位和持仓的基本稳定。</b></p>\n<p>具体操作方向，不少港股基金降低了互联网板块的权重，增加了新能源方向的配置。<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/01810\">小米集团-W</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/03690\">美团-W</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00700\">腾讯控股</a>等多只互联网科技股均遭遇了基金较大幅度减持，而<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/02380\">中国电力</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00836\">华润电力</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00916\">龙源电力</a>等多只电力股获得了较多加仓。</p>\n<p>抄底or避险，港股基金仓位出现分歧</p>\n<p>今年三季度，在教育、地产、互联网等行业的政策利空影响下，港股依然疲软，其中恒生指数下跌14.75%，恒生科技指数下跌25.18%。个股方面，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/01024\">快手-W</a>下跌57.55%，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/09626\">哔哩哔哩-SW</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/09988\">阿里巴巴-SW</a>、腾讯控股分别下跌46.97%、35.36%、20.99%。</p>\n<p><b>面对如此大级别的调整，港股基金的操作出现了分歧，有基金选择通过减仓避险，有基金越跌越买，趁着调整在二级市场大量吸筹。</b></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bceab928b6204f73be835bb559b298b6\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"1786\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>例如，“公募一哥”张坤的易方达亚洲精选近期发布了三季报，其股票仓位从二季度末的89.91%上升至92.29%，提高了2个百分点。具体来看，该基金前十大重仓股已经全部为港股，其中加仓了<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600036\">招商银行</a>的港股，使其位列第一大重仓股，此外，腾讯控股、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/09618\">京东集团-SW</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/02319\">蒙牛乳业</a>等多只港股获得加仓，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/02328\">中国财险</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/02202\">万科企业</a>新进易方达亚洲精选的前十大重仓股名单。</p>\n<p>毕凯管理的南方香港优选也大幅提高了股票仓位，该基金的股票市值占基金净值比从88.16%上升至93.55%，提高了5个百分点。大幅回调的快手-W受到了毕凯的青睐，第一次被该基金重仓就直接跃升至第一大重仓股，占基金净值比6.71%，备受政策利空影响的<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/01981\">华夏视听教育</a>也获得了毕凯的大幅加仓。</p>\n<p>毕凯认为，2021年第三季度市场调整比较剧烈，主要是由于中国经济增速边际放缓、消费下行叠加部分行业的政策变化形成的结果。展望未来，压制港股最重要的政策风险已经基本释放完毕，行业政策的调整对于中国经济的长远发展将产生积极影响。</p>\n<p><b>但相比上述基金经理逆势抄底的勇气，持相对谨慎态度的基金经理数量显然更多，约9只港股基金在三季度把股票仓位减少了超5个百分点，甚至有基金减仓近20%。</b></p>\n<p>例如，华夏大<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600675\">中华企业</a>精选的股票仓位从91.39%大幅下降至73.54%，减少了近18个百分点；此外，建信新兴市场优选、华宝致远、嘉实海外中国股票、海富通大中华精选等多只港股基金在三季度大幅减仓，幅度超10个百分点。</p>\n<p>华夏大中华企业精选的基金经理黄芳在三季报中表示，自己对短期政策风险大未来不确定性强的行业个股减仓回避，增持业绩和长期逻辑可持续的公司。具体来看，该基金减持了较多的<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/02020\">安踏体育</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/02331\">李宁</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/02313\">申洲国际</a>、腾讯控股，而<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/06078\">海吉亚医疗</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/06098\">碧桂园服务</a>获得增持。</p>\n<p>整体来看，上述港股基金的股票仓位分歧较大，其中最高的华泰柏瑞<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/A55.SI\">亚洲企业</a>可达94.79%，最低的建信新兴市场优选仅有64.10%，首尾相差超30个百分点。</p>\n<p>减仓互联网，加仓新能源</p>\n<p><b>面对市场调整，在操作方向上，不少港股基金降低了互联网板块的权重，增加了新能源方向的配置。</b></p>\n<p>例如，国富大中华精选的基金经理徐成表示，三季度，香港市场表现一般，总体策略上，本基金降低了互联网板块的权重，增加了新能源运营商的配置。三季报来看，此前的第一大重仓腾讯控股已经退出该基金前十大重仓股，华润电力新进前十大，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/01798\">大唐新能源</a>、龙源电力等获得加仓。</p>\n<p>建信新兴市场优选的基金经理在三季度开始对组合进行了较多调整，增加了港股低估值板块的配置，看好新能源相关板块的发展，积极选择优质的医疗服务和生物医药标的。具体来看，腾讯控股、美团-W、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JD\">京东</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NTES\">网易</a>等多只互联网股均被调出该基金前十大重仓，而<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/03996\">中国能源建设</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00855\">中国水务</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/01811\">中广核新能源</a>取而代之，成为该基金前三大重仓股。</p>\n<p>整体来看，据wind数据统计，三季度以来，小米集团-W、美团-W、腾讯控股等多只互联网科技股均遭遇了基金较大幅度减持。其中小米集团-W被减持股数最多，高达1.78亿股，按照三季度成交均价来计算，小米集团-W被减持了44.69亿元；如果从持股总市值来看，腾讯被基金减持的最多，高达442.03亿元。</p>\n<p><b>而相对应的，中国电力、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00902\">华能国际电力股份</a>、华润电力、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/01816\">中广核电力</a>等多只电力股获得了较多加仓。其中中国电力被基金增持的股数最多，高达7.13亿股，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600011\">华能国际</a>电力股份、华润电力、中广核电力被增持超1.5亿股。</b></p>\n<p>大幅回调后，港股怎么投？</p>\n<p>显然，港股基金在今年的日子并不好过，多只基金年内跌幅超15%，甚至有基金仅在三季度的跌幅就达到了20%左右。面对业绩大幅回调的压力，不少基金经理选择通过三季报与投资者交流投资理念和操作思路。</p>\n<p>例如，华泰柏瑞亚洲企业的基金经理何琦在三季报中坦言：“感谢各位投资者能在如此煎熬的一个季度继续支持我们的基金，作为管理人，很是感动。”</p>\n<p>他表示，港股在差不多经历了3个季度的跌幅，主跌浪大概率已经跌完，后面会是一个慢慢寻底的过程。其中，地产、教育板块见底的概率较大，而金融股随着经济的企稳相信也会慢慢有表现。对于市场最受欢迎的互联网板块，目前底部还不确定，反垄断会不会继续，整体业绩短期会不会因为政策的影响暂时走弱，而这个暂时走弱会不会变成长期影响，我们还需要观察和评估。因此，整个四季度可能是港股未来走势的一个转折点。</p>\n<p><b>政策影响是港股基金三季报的高频词，南方香港成长的基金经理王士聪表示，应对政策变化的底层前提假设是基于：我们相信政策并不是针对某个行业\\公司\\企业家，只是针对某个社会实际问题，进行多方面措施的解决。所以我们关注的是这个问题解决后，该行业的核心商业模式是否受到影响，或是否附带影响到其他行业，影响的程度怎样评估，我们依据以上分析对每个公司进行重新定价，之后再做投资决策。</b></p>\n<p>对于互联网行业，王士聪认为当前情形与2018年非常相似，当时游戏版号暂停半年、内容监管下架大量APP、民办教育促进法征求意见稿出台，但这些政策的本意在行业快速发展到一定阶段后进行规范，以促进行业的更高水平发展，事实证明，出台政策后，网络净化，青少年游戏有效管控，民办高等教育地位得到认可并积极发展；本次政策也是围绕游戏氪金、不良文化引导、反垄断、基层员工利益保护、数据安全等展开，我们相信，在行业规范后，这些行业长期会得到更好的发展，部分公司也会重新恢复增长动力，在更有价值的道路上蓬勃发展。</p>\n<p>华夏大中华企业精选的基金经理黄芳表达了对成长股的看好，她认为，很多成长类企业基本面并未恶化，只是被市场负面情绪影响或被动卖出导致股价大跌，有的甚至砸出“黄金坑”，是逢低买入的好时机。市场极度悲观和恐慌卖出很可能伴随着阶段性底部，悲观情绪过后，好行业优质公司股价将率先反弹。</p>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c6272e5d1abe4c89adfab198af137cca","relate_stocks":{"TCEHY":"腾讯控股ADR","09626":"哔哩哔哩-W","02833":"恒指ETF","QNETCN":"纳斯达克中美互联网老虎指数","HSI":"恒生指数","00700":"腾讯控股"},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2179122694","content_text":"自今年2月份以来，港股发生了较大幅度的调整，港股基金的操作也出现了明显分歧。\n由于港股跌跌不休，港股基金在今年的日子普遍都不好过，多只基金年内跌幅超15%，甚至有基金仅在三季度的跌幅就达到了20%左右。有基金经理在三季报中坦言：“感谢各位投资者能在如此煎熬的一个季度继续支持我们的基金，作为管理人，很是感动。”\n面对市场回调，从三季报来看，港股基金的股票仓位分歧较大，其中最高的可达94.79%，最低的仅有64.10%，首尾相差超30个百分点。有基金选择通过减仓避险，有基金越跌越买，也有基金选择以不变应万变，保持了仓位和持仓的基本稳定。\n具体操作方向，不少港股基金降低了互联网板块的权重，增加了新能源方向的配置。小米集团-W、美团-W、腾讯控股等多只互联网科技股均遭遇了基金较大幅度减持，而中国电力、华润电力、龙源电力等多只电力股获得了较多加仓。\n抄底or避险，港股基金仓位出现分歧\n今年三季度，在教育、地产、互联网等行业的政策利空影响下，港股依然疲软，其中恒生指数下跌14.75%，恒生科技指数下跌25.18%。个股方面，快手-W下跌57.55%，哔哩哔哩-SW、阿里巴巴-SW、腾讯控股分别下跌46.97%、35.36%、20.99%。\n面对如此大级别的调整，港股基金的操作出现了分歧，有基金选择通过减仓避险，有基金越跌越买，趁着调整在二级市场大量吸筹。\n\n例如，“公募一哥”张坤的易方达亚洲精选近期发布了三季报，其股票仓位从二季度末的89.91%上升至92.29%，提高了2个百分点。具体来看，该基金前十大重仓股已经全部为港股，其中加仓了招商银行的港股，使其位列第一大重仓股，此外，腾讯控股、京东集团-SW、蒙牛乳业等多只港股获得加仓，中国财险、万科企业新进易方达亚洲精选的前十大重仓股名单。\n毕凯管理的南方香港优选也大幅提高了股票仓位，该基金的股票市值占基金净值比从88.16%上升至93.55%，提高了5个百分点。大幅回调的快手-W受到了毕凯的青睐，第一次被该基金重仓就直接跃升至第一大重仓股，占基金净值比6.71%，备受政策利空影响的华夏视听教育也获得了毕凯的大幅加仓。\n毕凯认为，2021年第三季度市场调整比较剧烈，主要是由于中国经济增速边际放缓、消费下行叠加部分行业的政策变化形成的结果。展望未来，压制港股最重要的政策风险已经基本释放完毕，行业政策的调整对于中国经济的长远发展将产生积极影响。\n但相比上述基金经理逆势抄底的勇气，持相对谨慎态度的基金经理数量显然更多，约9只港股基金在三季度把股票仓位减少了超5个百分点，甚至有基金减仓近20%。\n例如，华夏大中华企业精选的股票仓位从91.39%大幅下降至73.54%，减少了近18个百分点；此外，建信新兴市场优选、华宝致远、嘉实海外中国股票、海富通大中华精选等多只港股基金在三季度大幅减仓，幅度超10个百分点。\n华夏大中华企业精选的基金经理黄芳在三季报中表示，自己对短期政策风险大未来不确定性强的行业个股减仓回避，增持业绩和长期逻辑可持续的公司。具体来看，该基金减持了较多的安踏体育、李宁、申洲国际、腾讯控股，而海吉亚医疗、碧桂园服务获得增持。\n整体来看，上述港股基金的股票仓位分歧较大，其中最高的华泰柏瑞亚洲企业可达94.79%，最低的建信新兴市场优选仅有64.10%，首尾相差超30个百分点。\n减仓互联网，加仓新能源\n面对市场调整，在操作方向上，不少港股基金降低了互联网板块的权重，增加了新能源方向的配置。\n例如，国富大中华精选的基金经理徐成表示，三季度，香港市场表现一般，总体策略上，本基金降低了互联网板块的权重，增加了新能源运营商的配置。三季报来看，此前的第一大重仓腾讯控股已经退出该基金前十大重仓股，华润电力新进前十大，大唐新能源、龙源电力等获得加仓。\n建信新兴市场优选的基金经理在三季度开始对组合进行了较多调整，增加了港股低估值板块的配置，看好新能源相关板块的发展，积极选择优质的医疗服务和生物医药标的。具体来看，腾讯控股、美团-W、京东、网易等多只互联网股均被调出该基金前十大重仓，而中国能源建设、中国水务、中广核新能源取而代之，成为该基金前三大重仓股。\n整体来看，据wind数据统计，三季度以来，小米集团-W、美团-W、腾讯控股等多只互联网科技股均遭遇了基金较大幅度减持。其中小米集团-W被减持股数最多，高达1.78亿股，按照三季度成交均价来计算，小米集团-W被减持了44.69亿元；如果从持股总市值来看，腾讯被基金减持的最多，高达442.03亿元。\n而相对应的，中国电力、华能国际电力股份、华润电力、中广核电力等多只电力股获得了较多加仓。其中中国电力被基金增持的股数最多，高达7.13亿股，华能国际电力股份、华润电力、中广核电力被增持超1.5亿股。\n大幅回调后，港股怎么投？\n显然，港股基金在今年的日子并不好过，多只基金年内跌幅超15%，甚至有基金仅在三季度的跌幅就达到了20%左右。面对业绩大幅回调的压力，不少基金经理选择通过三季报与投资者交流投资理念和操作思路。\n例如，华泰柏瑞亚洲企业的基金经理何琦在三季报中坦言：“感谢各位投资者能在如此煎熬的一个季度继续支持我们的基金，作为管理人，很是感动。”\n他表示，港股在差不多经历了3个季度的跌幅，主跌浪大概率已经跌完，后面会是一个慢慢寻底的过程。其中，地产、教育板块见底的概率较大，而金融股随着经济的企稳相信也会慢慢有表现。对于市场最受欢迎的互联网板块，目前底部还不确定，反垄断会不会继续，整体业绩短期会不会因为政策的影响暂时走弱，而这个暂时走弱会不会变成长期影响，我们还需要观察和评估。因此，整个四季度可能是港股未来走势的一个转折点。\n政策影响是港股基金三季报的高频词，南方香港成长的基金经理王士聪表示，应对政策变化的底层前提假设是基于：我们相信政策并不是针对某个行业\\公司\\企业家，只是针对某个社会实际问题，进行多方面措施的解决。所以我们关注的是这个问题解决后，该行业的核心商业模式是否受到影响，或是否附带影响到其他行业，影响的程度怎样评估，我们依据以上分析对每个公司进行重新定价，之后再做投资决策。\n对于互联网行业，王士聪认为当前情形与2018年非常相似，当时游戏版号暂停半年、内容监管下架大量APP、民办教育促进法征求意见稿出台，但这些政策的本意在行业快速发展到一定阶段后进行规范，以促进行业的更高水平发展，事实证明，出台政策后，网络净化，青少年游戏有效管控，民办高等教育地位得到认可并积极发展；本次政策也是围绕游戏氪金、不良文化引导、反垄断、基层员工利益保护、数据安全等展开，我们相信，在行业规范后，这些行业长期会得到更好的发展，部分公司也会重新恢复增长动力，在更有价值的道路上蓬勃发展。\n华夏大中华企业精选的基金经理黄芳表达了对成长股的看好，她认为，很多成长类企业基本面并未恶化，只是被市场负面情绪影响或被动卖出导致股价大跌，有的甚至砸出“黄金坑”，是逢低买入的好时机。市场极度悲观和恐慌卖出很可能伴随着阶段性底部，悲观情绪过后，好行业优质公司股价将率先反弹。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":781,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":168970911,"gmtCreate":1623948174733,"gmtModify":1623948174733,"author":{"id":"3563856816165145","authorId":"3563856816165145","name":"MiloDing","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/54f4e8ed7942e6adfa985be108468840","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3563856816165145","idStr":"3563856816165145"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看","listText":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看","text":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/168970911","repostId":"1119601826","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1001,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":328552380,"gmtCreate":1615543122040,"gmtModify":1703490691678,"author":{"id":"3563856816165145","authorId":"3563856816165145","name":"MiloDing","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/54f4e8ed7942e6adfa985be108468840","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3563856816165145","idStr":"3563856816165145"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看","listText":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看","text":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/328552380","repostId":"328513397","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":328513397,"gmtCreate":1615539753815,"gmtModify":1703490630870,"author":{"id":"36979109942400","authorId":"36979109942400","name":"小虎周报","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/f7b172cf773c77a3f0df67695c126b51","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"36979109942400","idStr":"36979109942400"},"themes":[],"title":"美股料已进入年内二次买入的绝佳时机","htmlText":"我们认为，近期是美股年内二次买入的绝佳时机，立足于中期，当前我们建议超配周期、价值，标配科技。 目前为止，随着1.9万亿财政刺激的落地，还有近期美联储购债规模的增加，美债波动对美股的影响已暂告一段落，我们预计美股三大指数上半年仍具备持续创新高的动能，近期也应该是美股年内二次买入的绝佳时机。<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/.SPX\">$标普500(.SPX)$</a> <a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/.IXIC\">$纳斯达克(.IXIC)$</a> <a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/.DJI\">$道琼斯(.DJI)$</a> 配置思路上，基于通胀抬升预期，我们认为，对于美股中的周期股、价值股中期仍然值得进行超配，同时短期科技股短期修复空间更大，但中期仍然受到利率的扰动，因此同样值得进行标配。 比如，以<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">$特斯拉(TSLA)$</a> 为代表的明星动能股，在利率扰动暂缓下，已经跟随指数先后完成强劲探底。但未来还需要关注影响美债波动的其他催化剂，包括4月份拜登基建方案预期，疫苗全面接种，疫苗保护率上升，或出现与疫情相关的其他里程碑事件，因此科技股的上涨并非坦途。但整体说来，结合历史长周期经验和股债相关性，我们认为这轮美债收益率上涨的下一个核心关口应该在1.8%-2%附近，而这个时间节点至少也要等到下半年，在这之前美股都具备较强的配置价值和能见度。空间上，我们认为上半年，<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/.SPX\">$标普500(.SPX)$</a>","listText":"我们认为，近期是美股年内二次买入的绝佳时机，立足于中期，当前我们建议超配周期、价值，标配科技。 目前为止，随着1.9万亿财政刺激的落地，还有近期美联储购债规模的增加，美债波动对美股的影响已暂告一段落，我们预计美股三大指数上半年仍具备持续创新高的动能，近期也应该是美股年内二次买入的绝佳时机。<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/.SPX\">$标普500(.SPX)$</a> <a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/.IXIC\">$纳斯达克(.IXIC)$</a> <a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/.DJI\">$道琼斯(.DJI)$</a> 配置思路上，基于通胀抬升预期，我们认为，对于美股中的周期股、价值股中期仍然值得进行超配，同时短期科技股短期修复空间更大，但中期仍然受到利率的扰动，因此同样值得进行标配。 比如，以<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">$特斯拉(TSLA)$</a> 为代表的明星动能股，在利率扰动暂缓下，已经跟随指数先后完成强劲探底。但未来还需要关注影响美债波动的其他催化剂，包括4月份拜登基建方案预期，疫苗全面接种，疫苗保护率上升，或出现与疫情相关的其他里程碑事件，因此科技股的上涨并非坦途。但整体说来，结合历史长周期经验和股债相关性，我们认为这轮美债收益率上涨的下一个核心关口应该在1.8%-2%附近，而这个时间节点至少也要等到下半年，在这之前美股都具备较强的配置价值和能见度。空间上，我们认为上半年，<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/.SPX\">$标普500(.SPX)$</a>","text":"我们认为，近期是美股年内二次买入的绝佳时机，立足于中期，当前我们建议超配周期、价值，标配科技。 目前为止，随着1.9万亿财政刺激的落地，还有近期美联储购债规模的增加，美债波动对美股的影响已暂告一段落，我们预计美股三大指数上半年仍具备持续创新高的动能，近期也应该是美股年内二次买入的绝佳时机。$标普500(.SPX)$ $纳斯达克(.IXIC)$ $道琼斯(.DJI)$ 配置思路上，基于通胀抬升预期，我们认为，对于美股中的周期股、价值股中期仍然值得进行超配，同时短期科技股短期修复空间更大，但中期仍然受到利率的扰动，因此同样值得进行标配。 比如，以$特斯拉(TSLA)$ 为代表的明星动能股，在利率扰动暂缓下，已经跟随指数先后完成强劲探底。但未来还需要关注影响美债波动的其他催化剂，包括4月份拜登基建方案预期，疫苗全面接种，疫苗保护率上升，或出现与疫情相关的其他里程碑事件，因此科技股的上涨并非坦途。但整体说来，结合历史长周期经验和股债相关性，我们认为这轮美债收益率上涨的下一个核心关口应该在1.8%-2%附近，而这个时间节点至少也要等到下半年，在这之前美股都具备较强的配置价值和能见度。空间上，我们认为上半年，$标普500(.SPX)$","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4a1820120ae55d9fe2a73c2acd766014","width":"1920","height":"1080"}],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":2,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/328513397","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":2,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":799,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":328253107,"gmtCreate":1615533808209,"gmtModify":1703490544312,"author":{"id":"3563856816165145","authorId":"3563856816165145","name":"MiloDing","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/54f4e8ed7942e6adfa985be108468840","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3563856816165145","idStr":"3563856816165145"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看","listText":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看","text":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/328253107","repostId":"321710218","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":321710218,"gmtCreate":1615469686134,"gmtModify":1703489490259,"author":{"id":"3532831849818465","authorId":"3532831849818465","name":"许亚鑫","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/72cbe26a31edf2913e619f4aa762d2d4","crmLevel":7,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3532831849818465","idStr":"3532831849818465"},"themes":[],"title":"美债大卖！会面实锤！反弹开启！","htmlText":"公众号：许亚鑫 今天许导上来就聊三件事：美债大卖，中美会面实锤和股市反弹开启！ 第一件事，美债大卖。 继周二3年期的580亿美债大卖之后，隔夜10年期240亿美债反响也还可以，每售出1美元的美国国债，出价为2.38美元。这与2月25日出售的7年期债券形成了鲜明的对比，后者则形成创纪录的低价竞标。具体数据为，得标利率为1.523%，高于2月的1.155%，也是2020年2月以来最高。衡量需求的投标倍数为2.38，略高于上个月的2.37，过去六次拍卖均值也是2.37。 当然，今天还有240亿美元30年期国债，以及300亿美元的4周期和350亿美元的8周期的国债。 看不懂数据的，那么请看上图10年期美债收益率的走势图，跳水总看得懂吧？！伴随着美债收益率的跳水，是不是美国道琼斯股指已经“V”回来了，纳斯达克指数也企稳反抽了，贵金属也触底反弹了？ 那么请各位仔细看一下目前发生的市场波动，是不是就是许导在前文《<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/TW/365293599\" target=\"_blank\">美债飙升后，一个大型诱空陷阱正在形成</a>》所描述的：大型诱空陷阱？！！！ 比较有意思的是，就在拍卖美债的关键节骨眼上，市场爆出了阿拉斯加会面的猛料。有没有发现，这个时机恰好就发生在1.9万亿刺激计划确认落地，美债大卖之时...... 没错！我知道你们在想什么，你们想的和我想的一样，这一轮美债大卖的背后，估计是兔子出手了，具体的情况我们需要等几个月以后老鹰财政部更新数据后才能去印证。 无论到底这里是谁出手接盘了美债，有个结论是比较清晰的，即美债收益率的上行只是短期现象，并未形成真正的趋势，而这一轮的美债抛售潮和风险资产重估最糟糕的阶段或已告一段落，这件事，许导在早前《","listText":"公众号：许亚鑫 今天许导上来就聊三件事：美债大卖，中美会面实锤和股市反弹开启！ 第一件事，美债大卖。 继周二3年期的580亿美债大卖之后，隔夜10年期240亿美债反响也还可以，每售出1美元的美国国债，出价为2.38美元。这与2月25日出售的7年期债券形成了鲜明的对比，后者则形成创纪录的低价竞标。具体数据为，得标利率为1.523%，高于2月的1.155%，也是2020年2月以来最高。衡量需求的投标倍数为2.38，略高于上个月的2.37，过去六次拍卖均值也是2.37。 当然，今天还有240亿美元30年期国债，以及300亿美元的4周期和350亿美元的8周期的国债。 看不懂数据的，那么请看上图10年期美债收益率的走势图，跳水总看得懂吧？！伴随着美债收益率的跳水，是不是美国道琼斯股指已经“V”回来了，纳斯达克指数也企稳反抽了，贵金属也触底反弹了？ 那么请各位仔细看一下目前发生的市场波动，是不是就是许导在前文《<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/TW/365293599\" target=\"_blank\">美债飙升后，一个大型诱空陷阱正在形成</a>》所描述的：大型诱空陷阱？！！！ 比较有意思的是，就在拍卖美债的关键节骨眼上，市场爆出了阿拉斯加会面的猛料。有没有发现，这个时机恰好就发生在1.9万亿刺激计划确认落地，美债大卖之时...... 没错！我知道你们在想什么，你们想的和我想的一样，这一轮美债大卖的背后，估计是兔子出手了，具体的情况我们需要等几个月以后老鹰财政部更新数据后才能去印证。 无论到底这里是谁出手接盘了美债，有个结论是比较清晰的，即美债收益率的上行只是短期现象，并未形成真正的趋势，而这一轮的美债抛售潮和风险资产重估最糟糕的阶段或已告一段落，这件事，许导在早前《","text":"公众号：许亚鑫 今天许导上来就聊三件事：美债大卖，中美会面实锤和股市反弹开启！ 第一件事，美债大卖。 继周二3年期的580亿美债大卖之后，隔夜10年期240亿美债反响也还可以，每售出1美元的美国国债，出价为2.38美元。这与2月25日出售的7年期债券形成了鲜明的对比，后者则形成创纪录的低价竞标。具体数据为，得标利率为1.523%，高于2月的1.155%，也是2020年2月以来最高。衡量需求的投标倍数为2.38，略高于上个月的2.37，过去六次拍卖均值也是2.37。 当然，今天还有240亿美元30年期国债，以及300亿美元的4周期和350亿美元的8周期的国债。 看不懂数据的，那么请看上图10年期美债收益率的走势图，跳水总看得懂吧？！伴随着美债收益率的跳水，是不是美国道琼斯股指已经“V”回来了，纳斯达克指数也企稳反抽了，贵金属也触底反弹了？ 那么请各位仔细看一下目前发生的市场波动，是不是就是许导在前文《美债飙升后，一个大型诱空陷阱正在形成》所描述的：大型诱空陷阱？！！！ 比较有意思的是，就在拍卖美债的关键节骨眼上，市场爆出了阿拉斯加会面的猛料。有没有发现，这个时机恰好就发生在1.9万亿刺激计划确认落地，美债大卖之时...... 没错！我知道你们在想什么，你们想的和我想的一样，这一轮美债大卖的背后，估计是兔子出手了，具体的情况我们需要等几个月以后老鹰财政部更新数据后才能去印证。 无论到底这里是谁出手接盘了美债，有个结论是比较清晰的，即美债收益率的上行只是短期现象，并未形成真正的趋势，而这一轮的美债抛售潮和风险资产重估最糟糕的阶段或已告一段落，这件事，许导在早前《","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b2b9a8218b2d6aa4363ce67b91ede219","width":"688","height":"417"},{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/35107c24cbf167cdc266b17ac2e98228","width":"900","height":"383"},{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cc746d1eed5ba9aeaa8e9125a27ba31f","width":"688","height":"314"}],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":2,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/321710218","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":6,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":950,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":321138558,"gmtCreate":1615401589974,"gmtModify":1703488619409,"author":{"id":"3563856816165145","authorId":"3563856816165145","name":"MiloDing","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/54f4e8ed7942e6adfa985be108468840","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3563856816165145","idStr":"3563856816165145"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看","listText":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看","text":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/321138558","repostId":"2118267226","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2118267226","pubTimestamp":1615374044,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2118267226?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-03-10 19:00","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"“新债王”：纳指可能重现2000-2003式的下跌","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2118267226","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"今日，有“新债王”之称的DoubleLine创始人Jeffrey Gundlach在电话会上表示，尽管采取了所有的刺激措施，但在恢复经济增长速度之前，美国不会完全摆脱衰退。 Gundlach在电话会上","content":"<p>今日，有“新债王”之称的DoubleLine创始人Jeffrey Gundlach在电话会上表示，尽管采取了所有的刺激措施，但在恢复经济增长速度之前，美国不会完全摆脱衰退。</p><h2><b> Gundlach在电话会上发表的核心观点如下:</b></h2><p>美国个人收入的27%都来自政府，人们可能开始相信刺激是永久性的。</p><p>CPI会在6-7月份超过3%并在上面停留几个月。</p><p>美元短暂反弹后将下跌。</p><p>纳斯达克可能已经见顶，对应2000年泡沫的双顶。</p><p>下次金融市场危机到来VIX会超过100。</p><p>黄金经过昨日跌至每盎司1680美元应该已经见底。</p><p>目前最便宜的资产是农场。</p><h2>具体来看：</h2><p><b>人们可能开始相信刺激是永久性的</b></p><p>Gundlach指出，在美国居民个人收入构成中，来自政府的补贴收入占比已经达到27%，而刺激计划还需要继续进行。</p><p><img src=\"https://wpimg.wallstcn.com/c2adffa4-0bb1-43d0-832e-31902660afac.png\" tg-width=\"554\" tg-height=\"410\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>这也使得美国的预算赤字已经达到创纪录的GDP的16.2%。</p><p><img src=\"https://wpimg.wallstcn.com/33661b16-c8a7-4cf2-a593-86728ce9f2f6.png\" tg-width=\"554\" tg-height=\"394\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>对于给年收入15万美元的人一堆钱的美国刺激计划，Gundlach将其批评扩大到更广泛的债务货币化。同时警告说人们可能开始相信刺激是永久性的。</p><blockquote>最大的问题是我们已经完全沉迷于这些刺激计划。尽管人们可能开始相信刺激是永久性的，但我担心我们会看到对无休止刺激的一些实际需求。</blockquote><p><b>美元反弹后将下跌</b></p><p>接下来，在谈到美元时，Gundlach表示，尽管他最近几个月一直看涨美元，但他预计美元在短暂反弹后将下跌。</p><p><img src=\"https://wpimg.wallstcn.com/6ff6600d-5efd-48f1-98c7-9d67b61ae58c.png\" tg-width=\"554\" tg-height=\"393\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>VIX指数在下一次经济低迷期间将超过100</b></p><p>对于股市，Gundlach提到了“超级六大”科技股，并表示这些股票的估值与疫情前的水平相比，高得惊人。</p><p>他展示了飙升的市盈率，称这些科技股的远期市盈率升至19倍，但没有1999年那么高。Gundlach表示，在美国总统乔•拜登谈论提高企业税率的问题上，一旦该法案纳入估值，市盈率可能会更高。</p><p><img src=\"https://wpimg.wallstcn.com/8398291d-0b4c-4ae2-bc7b-737924619736.png\" tg-width=\"554\" tg-height=\"415\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Gundlach警告说，纳斯达克指数可能会出现2000- 2003年那样的下跌，可能已经见顶。另外，Gundlach还做出了一个令人震惊的预测:“VIX指数在下一次衰退中将超过100。”</p><p><b>通货膨胀</b></p><p>造成“崩盘”的原因是什么？</p><p>Gundlach指出，也许是通货膨胀。在基数效应和刺激措施的支撑下，他预计今年夏天的几个月整体通货膨胀率将超过3%。</p><p><img src=\"https://wpimg.wallstcn.com/15cf3a7d-141a-4dc6-a3b1-60ee16a958d1.png\" tg-width=\"554\" tg-height=\"418\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Gundlach认为情况可能会变得更糟: 他将CPI与ISM价格进行了比较，说人们可以合理地预测总体通胀率可能会超过4%。</p><blockquote>这真的会吓坏债券市场。</blockquote><p><img src=\"https://wpimg.wallstcn.com/bdbddb24-8f40-4ca1-ae13-5082a1391ce0.png\" tg-width=\"554\" tg-height=\"385\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>黄金可能反弹</b></p><p>Gundlach提到金价昨日跌至每盎司1680美元，尽管此前Gundlach对黄金持中性态度。现在，他表示这可能是本轮黄金周期的低点，黄金在长期内可能反弹。</p><blockquote>因为抛售已经相当强劲。</blockquote><p>DoubleLine的模型显示，黄金大约处于公允价值。</p><p>另外，他提到金/铜的比率表明，美10年期国债的收益率应该在3%，并预计长期收益率将出现温和的下跌。</p><p><img src=\"https://wpimg.wallstcn.com/fd9e3f26-a643-4268-a6ab-ab204d3055bb.png\" tg-width=\"554\" tg-height=\"379\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>美联储会欢迎通胀上升</b></p><p>在过去几年里，美债的主要买家是美联储，Gundlach认为美债\"缺乏强劲的需求\"，并指出最近七年期美债灾难性的遭抛售是进一步的证据。</p><p>在Gundlach看来，美联储不仅不担心通胀上升，而且会欢迎通胀上升。因为负利率将使联邦债务更容易管理。</p><p><b>最便宜的资产是农田</b></p><p>在回答当前世界上最便宜的资产是什么的问题时，他的答案是：农田。</p>","source":"wallstreetcn_api","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>“新债王”：纳指可能重现2000-2003式的下跌</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n“新债王”：纳指可能重现2000-2003式的下跌\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-03-10 19:00 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3623059><strong>华尔街见闻</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>今日，有“新债王”之称的DoubleLine创始人Jeffrey Gundlach在电话会上表示，尽管采取了所有的刺激措施，但在恢复经济增长速度之前，美国不会完全摆脱衰退。 Gundlach在电话会上发表的核心观点如下:美国个人收入的27%都来自政府，人们可能开始相信刺激是永久性的。CPI会在6-7月份超过3%并在上面停留几个月。美元短暂反弹后将下跌。纳斯达克可能已经见顶，对应2000年泡沫的双顶...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3623059\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/93c3dba7c4b0e443e40fe6df5639434d","relate_stocks":{"PSQ":"纳指反向ETF","QLD":"纳指两倍做多ETF","QQQ":"纳指100ETF",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","SQQQ":"纳指三倍做空ETF","TQQQ":"纳指三倍做多ETF","QID":"纳指两倍做空ETF","03086":"华夏纳指"},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3623059","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2118267226","content_text":"今日，有“新债王”之称的DoubleLine创始人Jeffrey Gundlach在电话会上表示，尽管采取了所有的刺激措施，但在恢复经济增长速度之前，美国不会完全摆脱衰退。 Gundlach在电话会上发表的核心观点如下:美国个人收入的27%都来自政府，人们可能开始相信刺激是永久性的。CPI会在6-7月份超过3%并在上面停留几个月。美元短暂反弹后将下跌。纳斯达克可能已经见顶，对应2000年泡沫的双顶。下次金融市场危机到来VIX会超过100。黄金经过昨日跌至每盎司1680美元应该已经见底。目前最便宜的资产是农场。具体来看：人们可能开始相信刺激是永久性的Gundlach指出，在美国居民个人收入构成中，来自政府的补贴收入占比已经达到27%，而刺激计划还需要继续进行。这也使得美国的预算赤字已经达到创纪录的GDP的16.2%。对于给年收入15万美元的人一堆钱的美国刺激计划，Gundlach将其批评扩大到更广泛的债务货币化。同时警告说人们可能开始相信刺激是永久性的。最大的问题是我们已经完全沉迷于这些刺激计划。尽管人们可能开始相信刺激是永久性的，但我担心我们会看到对无休止刺激的一些实际需求。美元反弹后将下跌接下来，在谈到美元时，Gundlach表示，尽管他最近几个月一直看涨美元，但他预计美元在短暂反弹后将下跌。VIX指数在下一次经济低迷期间将超过100对于股市，Gundlach提到了“超级六大”科技股，并表示这些股票的估值与疫情前的水平相比，高得惊人。他展示了飙升的市盈率，称这些科技股的远期市盈率升至19倍，但没有1999年那么高。Gundlach表示，在美国总统乔•拜登谈论提高企业税率的问题上，一旦该法案纳入估值，市盈率可能会更高。Gundlach警告说，纳斯达克指数可能会出现2000- 2003年那样的下跌，可能已经见顶。另外，Gundlach还做出了一个令人震惊的预测:“VIX指数在下一次衰退中将超过100。”通货膨胀造成“崩盘”的原因是什么？Gundlach指出，也许是通货膨胀。在基数效应和刺激措施的支撑下，他预计今年夏天的几个月整体通货膨胀率将超过3%。Gundlach认为情况可能会变得更糟: 他将CPI与ISM价格进行了比较，说人们可以合理地预测总体通胀率可能会超过4%。这真的会吓坏债券市场。黄金可能反弹Gundlach提到金价昨日跌至每盎司1680美元，尽管此前Gundlach对黄金持中性态度。现在，他表示这可能是本轮黄金周期的低点，黄金在长期内可能反弹。因为抛售已经相当强劲。DoubleLine的模型显示，黄金大约处于公允价值。另外，他提到金/铜的比率表明，美10年期国债的收益率应该在3%，并预计长期收益率将出现温和的下跌。美联储会欢迎通胀上升在过去几年里，美债的主要买家是美联储，Gundlach认为美债\"缺乏强劲的需求\"，并指出最近七年期美债灾难性的遭抛售是进一步的证据。在Gundlach看来，美联储不仅不担心通胀上升，而且会欢迎通胀上升。因为负利率将使联邦债务更容易管理。最便宜的资产是农田在回答当前世界上最便宜的资产是什么的问题时，他的答案是：农田。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":881,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":321138637,"gmtCreate":1615401559229,"gmtModify":1703488619071,"author":{"id":"3563856816165145","authorId":"3563856816165145","name":"MiloDing","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/54f4e8ed7942e6adfa985be108468840","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3563856816165145","idStr":"3563856816165145"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看","listText":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看","text":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/321138637","repostId":"1132054688","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1592,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":321909472,"gmtCreate":1615387660796,"gmtModify":1703488315604,"author":{"id":"3563856816165145","authorId":"3563856816165145","name":"MiloDing","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/54f4e8ed7942e6adfa985be108468840","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3563856816165145","idStr":"3563856816165145"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看","listText":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看","text":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/321909472","repostId":"319800435","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":319800435,"gmtCreate":1611550440000,"gmtModify":1703750920547,"author":{"id":"3572665123406643","authorId":"3572665123406643","name":"遇见阿尔法","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6fb37015e68acc6d5aa9e0142e18dea1","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3572665123406643","idStr":"3572665123406643"},"themes":[],"title":"WSB重拳出击，GME爆拉202%，惊呆华尔街，还有什么毛票在WSB的watchlist上？","htmlText":"阅读本文风险提示：毛票有危险，跟风需谨慎，本文只是单纯总结WSB讨论度最热list，不做任何推荐。 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Bet的缩写，是Reddit论坛的一个分区。群里的教徒热衷毛票，赌末日otm看涨期权致富。这样一群疯狂的散户，愣是将GME炒到了2倍。机构也遭到了WSB教徒的冲拳出击，看衰GME的香橼被WSB网友疯狂攻击，高管被问候家人，社交媒体账号被迫新开账号。周五大盘微跌情况下，WSB平均收益为22.4%。 潜伏在WSB论坛一天一夜，本公众号为各位投资者总结了继GME后备受关注的股票: 股票ticker 行业类型 备注 BB 无线通信解决技术公司 利好消息：企业转型：黑莓设备、黑莓企业软件服务、黑莓通讯工具，以及QNX嵌入式软件业务及车载系统市场 PLTR 大数据分析公司 WSB网友预测三个月内股价达到$40 AMC* 院线娱乐公司 WSB的下一个short squeeze target LOVE 家具制造商 BBBY* 床上用品商店 WSB网友预测股价达到$38 Plug 充电桩 Kerridsdale Capital 发布做空报告后被大量wsb网民抨击 SPWR 太阳能储能系统 被WSB网友寄以厚望，yolo帖子最热门的股票 CCIV SPAC壳公司 与THCB并列讨论度最热门的spac股票 （*wsb网友给出的amc short squeeze图） （*wsb网友给出的bbby short squeeze图） 除上述top 8股票以外，ICLN, TSLA, APPL, AMD, NOK, BABA 也在活跃讨论的股票list之列。希望这篇文章，对那些周五GME 暴涨有所困惑的投资者解惑，并提炼出最受WSB网友关注的八大股票，或许他们中的一个就是下一个GME。 关注遇见阿尔法，我们将为你带来","text":"阅读本文风险提示：毛票有危险，跟风需谨慎，本文只是单纯总结WSB讨论度最热list，不做任何推荐。 周五GME狂拉51%惊呆了华尔街，WSB开始频频被文章提及。WSB是Wall Street Bet的缩写，是Reddit论坛的一个分区。群里的教徒热衷毛票，赌末日otm看涨期权致富。这样一群疯狂的散户，愣是将GME炒到了2倍。机构也遭到了WSB教徒的冲拳出击，看衰GME的香橼被WSB网友疯狂攻击，高管被问候家人，社交媒体账号被迫新开账号。周五大盘微跌情况下，WSB平均收益为22.4%。 潜伏在WSB论坛一天一夜，本公众号为各位投资者总结了继GME后备受关注的股票: 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target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/.IXIC\">$纳斯达克(.IXIC)$</a> 北京时间周五凌晨一点，美联储主席鲍威尔将发表讲话。这个时间窗口，显得尤为关键，应该会加速让美股走出方向。对于目前的市场来讲，千言万语，也不如一个问题更加宝贵：在什么情形下，10年期美债收益率才会降下来？ 我们提出可能出现的三种情形讨论。 1.银行补充杠杆率（SLR）豁免问题。 首先，比较焦点的问题是银行补充杠杆率（SLR）豁免即将于3月31日到期，这部分是不是延期，美联储在上周二曾提示过，将会很快给出结果。 简单来说，如果延期的话，银行资本充裕率持续宽松，意味着银行就可以直接买更多的国债，并回购自家的股票。买国债的预期，会导致国债价格上升，就可以直接把收益降下来，以解目前美债抬升的燃眉之急，为美股上行带来动力。但是如果没有延期，银行可能被迫抛售国债，带动国债收益率上升，施压美股。 &nbsp;2.美联储会不会重启动扭曲操作？ 简单的说，扭曲操作就是卖出短期美债，买入长期国债（一般5年左右及以上），这样的话短债收益率上升，但长债收益率就下来了，相应的长期借贷成本也会降下来，经济复苏但又不影响美债收益率，也就是可以在防范美股崩盘（控制金融市场风险）的情况下，顺利完成经济复苏。 扭曲操作常常出现的QE间隙，美联储上一次动用扭曲操作是在2011年，目前的关头，其实也是满足触发实施扭曲操作条件的。 &nbsp;3.是否进行淡化加息前景的口头安抚？ 如果持续释放宽松信号，淡化通胀，让加息时间不那么快提前，那么对短期美债的上行压力实际上也会有一个纾缓作用。更有利于美股化险为夷，延续上升通道。 目前来讲，以上三种市场均有预期，但情形1：","listText":"这几天美股如惊弓之鸟，大部分时间都在受着美债收益率的牵动，几天的修正下来，美股目前的位置，其实已经比想象中更加关键。<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/.IXIC\">$纳斯达克(.IXIC)$</a> 北京时间周五凌晨一点，美联储主席鲍威尔将发表讲话。这个时间窗口，显得尤为关键，应该会加速让美股走出方向。对于目前的市场来讲，千言万语，也不如一个问题更加宝贵：在什么情形下，10年期美债收益率才会降下来？ 我们提出可能出现的三种情形讨论。 1.银行补充杠杆率（SLR）豁免问题。 首先，比较焦点的问题是银行补充杠杆率（SLR）豁免即将于3月31日到期，这部分是不是延期，美联储在上周二曾提示过，将会很快给出结果。 简单来说，如果延期的话，银行资本充裕率持续宽松，意味着银行就可以直接买更多的国债，并回购自家的股票。买国债的预期，会导致国债价格上升，就可以直接把收益降下来，以解目前美债抬升的燃眉之急，为美股上行带来动力。但是如果没有延期，银行可能被迫抛售国债，带动国债收益率上升，施压美股。 &nbsp;2.美联储会不会重启动扭曲操作？ 简单的说，扭曲操作就是卖出短期美债，买入长期国债（一般5年左右及以上），这样的话短债收益率上升，但长债收益率就下来了，相应的长期借贷成本也会降下来，经济复苏但又不影响美债收益率，也就是可以在防范美股崩盘（控制金融市场风险）的情况下，顺利完成经济复苏。 扭曲操作常常出现的QE间隙，美联储上一次动用扭曲操作是在2011年，目前的关头，其实也是满足触发实施扭曲操作条件的。 &nbsp;3.是否进行淡化加息前景的口头安抚？ 如果持续释放宽松信号，淡化通胀，让加息时间不那么快提前，那么对短期美债的上行压力实际上也会有一个纾缓作用。更有利于美股化险为夷，延续上升通道。 目前来讲，以上三种市场均有预期，但情形1：","text":"这几天美股如惊弓之鸟，大部分时间都在受着美债收益率的牵动，几天的修正下来，美股目前的位置，其实已经比想象中更加关键。$纳斯达克(.IXIC)$ 北京时间周五凌晨一点，美联储主席鲍威尔将发表讲话。这个时间窗口，显得尤为关键，应该会加速让美股走出方向。对于目前的市场来讲，千言万语，也不如一个问题更加宝贵：在什么情形下，10年期美债收益率才会降下来？ 我们提出可能出现的三种情形讨论。 1.银行补充杠杆率（SLR）豁免问题。 首先，比较焦点的问题是银行补充杠杆率（SLR）豁免即将于3月31日到期，这部分是不是延期，美联储在上周二曾提示过，将会很快给出结果。 简单来说，如果延期的话，银行资本充裕率持续宽松，意味着银行就可以直接买更多的国债，并回购自家的股票。买国债的预期，会导致国债价格上升，就可以直接把收益降下来，以解目前美债抬升的燃眉之急，为美股上行带来动力。但是如果没有延期，银行可能被迫抛售国债，带动国债收益率上升，施压美股。 2.美联储会不会重启动扭曲操作？ 简单的说，扭曲操作就是卖出短期美债，买入长期国债（一般5年左右及以上），这样的话短债收益率上升，但长债收益率就下来了，相应的长期借贷成本也会降下来，经济复苏但又不影响美债收益率，也就是可以在防范美股崩盘（控制金融市场风险）的情况下，顺利完成经济复苏。 扭曲操作常常出现的QE间隙，美联储上一次动用扭曲操作是在2011年，目前的关头，其实也是满足触发实施扭曲操作条件的。 3.是否进行淡化加息前景的口头安抚？ 如果持续释放宽松信号，淡化通胀，让加息时间不那么快提前，那么对短期美债的上行压力实际上也会有一个纾缓作用。更有利于美股化险为夷，延续上升通道。 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