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2021-06-18

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Alibaba Stock: The Bottoming Process Looks To Be Forming Already

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,"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/166146810","repostId":"1175693382","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1175693382","pubTimestamp":1623978463,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1175693382?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-18 09:07","market":"hk","language":"en","title":"Alibaba Stock: The Bottoming Process Looks To Be Forming Already","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1175693382","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Alibaba is probably the most undervalued growth stock right now.The company’s multiple growth drivers within a rapidly expanding market made its valuations look even more baffling.The short term technical picture may be turning bullish with a potential double bottom price action signal.When we take things into clearer perspective by comparing China’s growth rate and size of its market to that of the U.S. e-commerce market, we could see the huge differences in their sizes and growth rates as the ","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p>\n<ul>\n <li>Alibaba is probably the most undervalued growth stock right now.</li>\n <li>The company’s multiple growth drivers within a rapidly expanding market made its valuations look even more baffling.</li>\n <li>The short term technical picture may be turning bullish with a potential double bottom price action signal.</li>\n <li>We discuss the company’s multiple growth drivers and let investors judge for themselves.</li>\n</ul>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/05e63c77d4f3f3dc3d618e43044638bb\" tg-width=\"768\" tg-height=\"512\"><span>Yongyuan Dai/iStock Unreleased via Getty Images</span></p>\n<p><b>The Technical Thesis</b></p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7febf6ed056b0e3bc038321cdaad9b1c\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"782\"><span>Source: TradingView</span></p>\n<p>Alibaba’s&nbsp;stock price has endured a terrible 8 months ever since its Ant Financial IPO was pulled in early Nov 20, with the stock languishing in the doldrums 34% off its high. When considering the health of its long term uptrend, it’s clear that BABA has a relatively strong uptrend bias and has generally been well supported along its key 50W MA. The only other time in the last 4 years that it lost its key 50W MA support level was during the 2018 bear market where BABA dropped about 40%, but was still well supported above the important 200W MA, which we usually consider as the “last line of defense”. Right now BABA is somewhat facing a similar situation again: down 34%, lost the 50W MA, but looks to be well supported above the 200W MA. In addition to that, one interesting observation in price action analysis may lead price action traders/investors to be especially bullish: a potential double bottom formation. BABA's price is seemingly going through a double bottom like it did during the 2018 bear market before it rallied strongly thereafter. As a result, BABA’s current level may offer a possible technical buy entry point now.</p>\n<p><b>BABA's Fundamental Thesis: Rapidly Expanding Growth Drivers</b></p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/eba49f5881708929949c30628eedc5d4\" tg-width=\"934\" tg-height=\"578\"><span>Annual GMV. Data source: Company filings</span></p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a4d6c4ed3e2402f5af52b2dea8bab411\" tg-width=\"836\" tg-height=\"517\"><span>Annual e-commerce revenue. Data source: Company filings</span></p>\n<p>BABA’s GMV grew from 1.68T yuan to 7.49T yuan in just a matter of 7 years, which represented a CAGR of 23.8%, a truly amazing growth rate. We also saw its GMV growth being converted into revenue growth as its China commerce revenue grew from 7.67B yuan to 473.68B yuan, at a CAGR of 51% over the last 10 years. While its international footprint remains considerably smaller, it still grew at a CAGR of 30.42% over the last 10 years, which was by no means slow.</p>\n<p>Even though China’s e-commerce market is expected to grow considerably slower at a CAGR of 12.4% over the next three years, from 13.8T yuan, equivalent to $2.16T in 2021 to 19.6T yuan,equivalent to $3.06T by 2024, the massive size of the market still offers tremendous upside potential for BABA and its closest competitors to grow into.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ffe2dee43f267e1d1399c68e3ca60f36\" tg-width=\"600\" tg-height=\"371\"><span>E-commerce revenue in the U.S. Data source: Statista</span></p>\n<p>When we take things into clearer perspective by comparing China’s growth rate and size of its market to that of the U.S. e-commerce market, we could see the huge differences in their sizes and growth rates as the U.S. e-commerce market is only expected to grow at a CAGR of 4.67% from 2021 to 2025, which is significantly slower than China’s 12.4%. In addition, the U.S. market is also expected to reach about $563B in total revenue, which is 18% of what the China market is expected to be worth by then.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0d5a8d0d8a6a2dcdf667a6f33c6c9771\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"702\"><span>Peers EBIT Margin and Projected EBIT Margin. Data source: S&amp;P Capital IQ</span></p>\n<p>Even though Alibaba has been facing increased competitive pressures from its fast growing key competitors: JD.com(NASDAQ:JD)and Pinduoduo(NASDAQ:PDD), BABA has already been operating a much more profitable business (both EBIT and FCF), and is expected to continue delivering strong profitability moving forward, which should give the company tremendous flexibility to compete head on with JD and PDD in its quest to extend its leadership. Investors may observe that BABA’s EBIT margin was affected by the one-off administrative penalty of $2,782M that was reflected in its SG&amp;A, and therefore skewed its EBIT margin to the downside.</p>\n<p>One important move was the company’s decision to further its investment in the Community Marketplace, which is PDD’s main e-commerce strategy that saw PDD gain a total of&nbsp;823M AAC&nbsp;in its latest quarter as compared to BABA’s 891M AAC. PDD’s AAC growth is truly phenomenal considering it had only&nbsp;100M AAC in Q2’C17&nbsp;as compared to BABA’s 466M AAC in the same period.</p>\n<p>Therefore, the momentum of growth has surely swung over to the Community Marketplace segment and BABA would need to pull out its big guns (which it has) to compete for dominance with PDD and JD.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3b83b69b08b1f4b11a26393c8e6eead5\" tg-width=\"600\" tg-height=\"371\"><span>Market size of community group buying in China. Data source: iiMedia Research</span></p>\n<p>Even though the expected total market size of 102B yuan by 2022 represented only about 21.5% of BABA’s FY 21 China commerce revenue, the expected rapid CAGR of 44.22% over 3 years from 2019 to 2022 cannot be missed by BABA. Although the market is still relatively small, BABA cannot allow the current leader in this market: PDD to so easily dominate and gobble up the early high growth rates at the ignorance of everyone else. Certainly BABA must compete and fight for its place in this segment and strive for early leadership to prevent PDD from extending its lead.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b97b2b4a8a182dc9846d8fb7e4039877\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"770\"><span>PDD profitability metrics &amp; revenue growth forecast. Data source: S&amp;P Capital IQ</span></p>\n<p>We could observe from the above chart that PDD is expected to continue growing its revenue rapidly over the next few years, even though they are expected to normalize subsequently. More importantly, PDD is also expected to increasingly improve its EBIT and FCF profitability moving forward. This shows that the Community Marketplace segment is an highly important growth driver that BABA must use its strength to exploit in order to deny PDD’s claim to undisputed leadership so early on in the game.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3aadc32155b4108426a1a982e3b5b1c2\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"360\"><span>China public cloud spending. Source:China Internet Watch; Canalys</span></p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1c1538b9f7bdc8d6d35a72d9acf8ecbc\" tg-width=\"600\" tg-height=\"371\"><span>Size of China public cloud market. Data source: CAICT; Sina.com.cn</span></p>\n<p>BABA has a 40% share in China’s public cloud market, way ahead of its key competitors. However, it’s important to note that despite this leadership, BABA is still in heavy investment mode to continue growing its market share as China’s public cloud market is expected to grow from 26.48B yuan in 2017 to 230.74B yuan by 2023, which would represent a CAGR of 43.4%, an incredibly stellar growth rate. This is especially clear when we compare China’s growth rate to the worldwide growth rate (see below) as public cloud spending worldwide is expected to grow from $145B in 2017 to $397B by 2022, that would represent a CAGR of 22.3%.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/06198c569504bc303c34563041dfb294\" tg-width=\"600\" tg-height=\"371\"><span>Worldwide public cloud spending. Data source: Gartner</span></p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8482037f60575f964053ab732496bee3\" tg-width=\"1176\" tg-height=\"700\"><span>Worldwide public cloud market share. Source:CnTechPost; Gartner</span></p>\n<p>Therefore, I don’t find it surprising that Ali Cloud has continued to extend its lead over Alphabet’s(NASDAQ:GOOGL)(NASDAQ:GOOG)GCP with a market share of 9.5% in 2020. While AMZN remains the clear leader in the market, its market share has been coming down considerably as public cloud spending continues to expand, indicating that there is a huge potential for growth for multiple players to exist. With BABA’s leadership in the rapidly expanding Chinese market, I’m increasingly bullish on the future profit and FCF contribution from this segment to BABA’s performance over time. Although BABA’s cloud segment has not been EBIT profitable yet (FY 21 EBIT margin: -15%, FY 20 EBIT margin: -17.5%), it’s also useful to note that GCP has also not been profitable for Alphabet as well (FY 20 EBIT margin: -42.9%, FY 19 EBIT margin: -52%). Therefore, we need to give BABA some time to scale up its cloud services in APAC and in China where it is expected to have stronger leadership to allow it to grow faster and investors should expect this to be a highly profitable segment over time.</p>\n<p><b>BABA's Valuations Look Highly Compelling</b></p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/62a087c4b3ef7efc2c5dde813e3b959d\" tg-width=\"1000\" tg-height=\"600\"><span>NTM TEV / EBIT 3Y range.</span></p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b2605c0e5ad364a7a43929fef204595c\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"687\"><span>EV / Fwd EBIT and EV / Fwd Rev trend. Data source: S&amp;P Capital IQ</span></p>\n<p>When we consider BABA's TEV / EBIT historical range, where the 3Y mean read 33.54x, BABA’s EV / Fwd EBIT trend certainly imply a hugely undervalued stock as BABA is still expected to grow its revenue and operating profits rapidly. However, as we wanted to obtain greater clarity over how its counterparts are also valued, we thought it would be useful if we value BABA’s EBIT over a set of benchmark companies that is presented below.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d27873e676dfb23c98d4a69aa5861e02\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"1117\"><span>Peers EV / EBIT Valuations. Data source: S&amp;P Capital IQ</span></p>\n<p>By using a blend of historical and forward EBIT, we could see that BABA’s EV / EBIT really looks undervalued when compared to the median value of the set of observed values from the benchmark companies. We derived a fair value range for BABA of $294.98 at the midpoint of the range, that represented a potential upside of 40.5% based on the current stock price of $210.</p>\n<p><b>Risks to Assumptions</b></p>\n<p>Now, it’s obviously baffling to watch how Mr. Market has decided to discount BABA to such an extent as if the company has lost all its key sources of growth, when in fact there is still so much potential upside coming from its commerce segment, the new marketplace initiatives and its growing Ali Cloud segment, among others. The main realistic reason that we identified for the stock's underperformance would simply be regulatory risk. We think investors should acknowledge that this risk is very real and at times huge Chinese companies have found themselves to be subjected to extra scrutiny (which is nothing new in fact) by the Chinese government. What’s critical here is that the Chinese government seemingly has significant clout over the behavior and actions of their tech behemoths that at times may be largely unpredictable. The market certainly hates unpredictability and therefore they may have significantly discounted BABA as a result of that. If investors are not able to handle uncertainty with regard to potentially unpredictable regulatory actions and their aftermath, then BABA may not be appropriate for you. However, if you believe that this is just a blip in BABA’s long journey, then you would surely find BABA's valuations extremely attractive right now, coupled with a long term mindset.</p>\n<p><b>Wrapping It All Up</b></p>\n<p>Alibaba has continued to deliver solid results that demonstrated the strong capability of the company to execute well. As the company continues to operate within a market with so many growth drivers that are expected to drive the company’s future growth, investors should find the current valuations highly attractive.</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Alibaba Stock: The Bottoming Process Looks To Be Forming Already</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nAlibaba Stock: The Bottoming Process Looks To Be Forming Already\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-06-18 09:07 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4435297-alibaba-stock-bottoming-process-forming-buy-now><strong>seekingalpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Summary\n\nAlibaba is probably the most undervalued growth stock right now.\nThe company’s multiple growth drivers within a rapidly expanding market made its valuations look even more baffling.\nThe short...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4435297-alibaba-stock-bottoming-process-forming-buy-now\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"09988":"阿里巴巴-W","BABA":"阿里巴巴"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4435297-alibaba-stock-bottoming-process-forming-buy-now","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1175693382","content_text":"Summary\n\nAlibaba is probably the most undervalued growth stock right now.\nThe company’s multiple growth drivers within a rapidly expanding market made its valuations look even more baffling.\nThe short term technical picture may be turning bullish with a potential double bottom price action signal.\nWe discuss the company’s multiple growth drivers and let investors judge for themselves.\n\nYongyuan Dai/iStock Unreleased via Getty Images\nThe Technical Thesis\nSource: TradingView\nAlibaba’s stock price has endured a terrible 8 months ever since its Ant Financial IPO was pulled in early Nov 20, with the stock languishing in the doldrums 34% off its high. When considering the health of its long term uptrend, it’s clear that BABA has a relatively strong uptrend bias and has generally been well supported along its key 50W MA. The only other time in the last 4 years that it lost its key 50W MA support level was during the 2018 bear market where BABA dropped about 40%, but was still well supported above the important 200W MA, which we usually consider as the “last line of defense”. Right now BABA is somewhat facing a similar situation again: down 34%, lost the 50W MA, but looks to be well supported above the 200W MA. In addition to that, one interesting observation in price action analysis may lead price action traders/investors to be especially bullish: a potential double bottom formation. BABA's price is seemingly going through a double bottom like it did during the 2018 bear market before it rallied strongly thereafter. As a result, BABA’s current level may offer a possible technical buy entry point now.\nBABA's Fundamental Thesis: Rapidly Expanding Growth Drivers\nAnnual GMV. Data source: Company filings\nAnnual e-commerce revenue. Data source: Company filings\nBABA’s GMV grew from 1.68T yuan to 7.49T yuan in just a matter of 7 years, which represented a CAGR of 23.8%, a truly amazing growth rate. We also saw its GMV growth being converted into revenue growth as its China commerce revenue grew from 7.67B yuan to 473.68B yuan, at a CAGR of 51% over the last 10 years. While its international footprint remains considerably smaller, it still grew at a CAGR of 30.42% over the last 10 years, which was by no means slow.\nEven though China’s e-commerce market is expected to grow considerably slower at a CAGR of 12.4% over the next three years, from 13.8T yuan, equivalent to $2.16T in 2021 to 19.6T yuan,equivalent to $3.06T by 2024, the massive size of the market still offers tremendous upside potential for BABA and its closest competitors to grow into.\nE-commerce revenue in the U.S. Data source: Statista\nWhen we take things into clearer perspective by comparing China’s growth rate and size of its market to that of the U.S. e-commerce market, we could see the huge differences in their sizes and growth rates as the U.S. e-commerce market is only expected to grow at a CAGR of 4.67% from 2021 to 2025, which is significantly slower than China’s 12.4%. In addition, the U.S. market is also expected to reach about $563B in total revenue, which is 18% of what the China market is expected to be worth by then.\nPeers EBIT Margin and Projected EBIT Margin. Data source: S&P Capital IQ\nEven though Alibaba has been facing increased competitive pressures from its fast growing key competitors: JD.com(NASDAQ:JD)and Pinduoduo(NASDAQ:PDD), BABA has already been operating a much more profitable business (both EBIT and FCF), and is expected to continue delivering strong profitability moving forward, which should give the company tremendous flexibility to compete head on with JD and PDD in its quest to extend its leadership. Investors may observe that BABA’s EBIT margin was affected by the one-off administrative penalty of $2,782M that was reflected in its SG&A, and therefore skewed its EBIT margin to the downside.\nOne important move was the company’s decision to further its investment in the Community Marketplace, which is PDD’s main e-commerce strategy that saw PDD gain a total of 823M AAC in its latest quarter as compared to BABA’s 891M AAC. PDD’s AAC growth is truly phenomenal considering it had only 100M AAC in Q2’C17 as compared to BABA’s 466M AAC in the same period.\nTherefore, the momentum of growth has surely swung over to the Community Marketplace segment and BABA would need to pull out its big guns (which it has) to compete for dominance with PDD and JD.\nMarket size of community group buying in China. Data source: iiMedia Research\nEven though the expected total market size of 102B yuan by 2022 represented only about 21.5% of BABA’s FY 21 China commerce revenue, the expected rapid CAGR of 44.22% over 3 years from 2019 to 2022 cannot be missed by BABA. Although the market is still relatively small, BABA cannot allow the current leader in this market: PDD to so easily dominate and gobble up the early high growth rates at the ignorance of everyone else. Certainly BABA must compete and fight for its place in this segment and strive for early leadership to prevent PDD from extending its lead.\nPDD profitability metrics & revenue growth forecast. Data source: S&P Capital IQ\nWe could observe from the above chart that PDD is expected to continue growing its revenue rapidly over the next few years, even though they are expected to normalize subsequently. More importantly, PDD is also expected to increasingly improve its EBIT and FCF profitability moving forward. This shows that the Community Marketplace segment is an highly important growth driver that BABA must use its strength to exploit in order to deny PDD’s claim to undisputed leadership so early on in the game.\nChina public cloud spending. Source:China Internet Watch; Canalys\nSize of China public cloud market. Data source: CAICT; Sina.com.cn\nBABA has a 40% share in China’s public cloud market, way ahead of its key competitors. However, it’s important to note that despite this leadership, BABA is still in heavy investment mode to continue growing its market share as China’s public cloud market is expected to grow from 26.48B yuan in 2017 to 230.74B yuan by 2023, which would represent a CAGR of 43.4%, an incredibly stellar growth rate. This is especially clear when we compare China’s growth rate to the worldwide growth rate (see below) as public cloud spending worldwide is expected to grow from $145B in 2017 to $397B by 2022, that would represent a CAGR of 22.3%.\nWorldwide public cloud spending. Data source: Gartner\nWorldwide public cloud market share. Source:CnTechPost; Gartner\nTherefore, I don’t find it surprising that Ali Cloud has continued to extend its lead over Alphabet’s(NASDAQ:GOOGL)(NASDAQ:GOOG)GCP with a market share of 9.5% in 2020. While AMZN remains the clear leader in the market, its market share has been coming down considerably as public cloud spending continues to expand, indicating that there is a huge potential for growth for multiple players to exist. With BABA’s leadership in the rapidly expanding Chinese market, I’m increasingly bullish on the future profit and FCF contribution from this segment to BABA’s performance over time. Although BABA’s cloud segment has not been EBIT profitable yet (FY 21 EBIT margin: -15%, FY 20 EBIT margin: -17.5%), it’s also useful to note that GCP has also not been profitable for Alphabet as well (FY 20 EBIT margin: -42.9%, FY 19 EBIT margin: -52%). Therefore, we need to give BABA some time to scale up its cloud services in APAC and in China where it is expected to have stronger leadership to allow it to grow faster and investors should expect this to be a highly profitable segment over time.\nBABA's Valuations Look Highly Compelling\nNTM TEV / EBIT 3Y range.\nEV / Fwd EBIT and EV / Fwd Rev trend. Data source: S&P Capital IQ\nWhen we consider BABA's TEV / EBIT historical range, where the 3Y mean read 33.54x, BABA’s EV / Fwd EBIT trend certainly imply a hugely undervalued stock as BABA is still expected to grow its revenue and operating profits rapidly. However, as we wanted to obtain greater clarity over how its counterparts are also valued, we thought it would be useful if we value BABA’s EBIT over a set of benchmark companies that is presented below.\nPeers EV / EBIT Valuations. Data source: S&P Capital IQ\nBy using a blend of historical and forward EBIT, we could see that BABA’s EV / EBIT really looks undervalued when compared to the median value of the set of observed values from the benchmark companies. We derived a fair value range for BABA of $294.98 at the midpoint of the range, that represented a potential upside of 40.5% based on the current stock price of $210.\nRisks to Assumptions\nNow, it’s obviously baffling to watch how Mr. Market has decided to discount BABA to such an extent as if the company has lost all its key sources of growth, when in fact there is still so much potential upside coming from its commerce segment, the new marketplace initiatives and its growing Ali Cloud segment, among others. The main realistic reason that we identified for the stock's underperformance would simply be regulatory risk. We think investors should acknowledge that this risk is very real and at times huge Chinese companies have found themselves to be subjected to extra scrutiny (which is nothing new in fact) by the Chinese government. What’s critical here is that the Chinese government seemingly has significant clout over the behavior and actions of their tech behemoths that at times may be largely unpredictable. The market certainly hates unpredictability and therefore they may have significantly discounted BABA as a result of that. If investors are not able to handle uncertainty with regard to potentially unpredictable regulatory actions and their aftermath, then BABA may not be appropriate for you. However, if you believe that this is just a blip in BABA’s long journey, then you would surely find BABA's valuations extremely attractive right now, coupled with a long term mindset.\nWrapping It All Up\nAlibaba has continued to deliver solid results that demonstrated the strong capability of the company to execute well. As the company continues to operate within a market with so many growth drivers that are expected to drive the company’s future growth, investors should find the current valuations highly attractive.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":152,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":161113539,"gmtCreate":1623910254221,"gmtModify":1634025974682,"author":{"id":"3563269355829633","authorId":"3563269355829633","name":"Mingq","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3563269355829633","authorIdStr":"3563269355829633"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Yes","listText":"Yes","text":"Yes","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/161113539","repostId":"2143379379","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2143379379","pubTimestamp":1623893744,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2143379379?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-17 09:35","market":"us","language":"en","title":"These 10 Stocks Make Up 85% of Warren Buffett's Portfolio","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2143379379","media":"Motley Fool","summary":"Diversification isn't necessary if you know what you're doing, according to the Oracle of Omaha.","content":"<p>If you've ever wondered why <b>Berkshire Hathaway</b> (NYSE:BRK.A)(NYSE:BRK.B) CEO Warren Buffett's name gets brought up so much on Wall Street, it's because of his impressive investing track record. Buffett isn't infallible, but he's delivered an annual average return of 20% since the mid-1960s for his shareholders. In aggregate, we're talking about a return of more than 2,800,000%!</p>\n<p>What's even more amazing is that Buffett hasn't done anything the average investors couldn't do to net these huge gains. He focuses on a few sectors and industries that interest him, buys companies with clear-cut competitive advantages, and most importantly hangs onto those stakes for a very long time.</p>\n<p>Another source of Buffett's success is concentration. The Oracle of Omaha doesn't believe diversification is necessary if you know what you're doing. This is readily apparent in Berkshire Hathaway's $302.6 billion investment portfolio. As of this past weekend, 85% of Berkshire's invested assets ($257.3 billion) were tied up in only 10 stocks.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/601f21f3cc2f9e5524bd5d613063faa2\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"466\"><span>Berkshire Hathaway CEO Warren Buffett. Image source: The Motley Fool.</span></p>\n<h2>1. Apple: $115.6 billion</h2>\n<p>Tech kingpin <b>Apple</b> (NASDAQ:AAPL) makes up about 38% of Warren Buffett's portfolio by itself and has been dubbed \"Berkshire's third business\" by the Oracle of Omaha. Apple offers some of the strongest branding in the world, is the clear leader in smartphones in the U.S., and has been pivoting to higher-margin services under the leadership of CEO Tim Cook. Though iPhone sales remain Apple's top product, services becoming a larger percentage of total sales will help remove the revenue lumpiness associated with new product launches.</p>\n<h2>2. Bank of America: $43.2 billion</h2>\n<p>Bank stocks have long been Buffett's favorite place to put Berkshire's money work. <b>Bank of America</b> (NYSE:BAC) is Berkshire's unquestioned largest bank holding, with more than 14% of invested assets. Bank of America has done an excellent job of controlling its noninterest expenses by consolidating branches and emphasizing digital banking. It's also in line to benefit more than any other money-center bank from an eventual rise in interest rates.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ed3e6a16841306014bf0cfc3b1697b23\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"466\"><span>Image source: American <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/EXPR\">Express</a>.</span></p>\n<h2>3. American Express: $24.9 billion</h2>\n<p>Payment processor and lender <b>American Express</b> (NYSE:AXP) is Buffett's third-largest and third-longest-held stock. After 28 years of holding AmEx, Berkshire Hathaway's position has grown to almost $25 billion in value. This is a cyclical company that benefits from long periods of economic expansion, as well as its ability to attract affluent clientele. These well-to-do clients are less likely to change their spending habits when economic hiccups arise, which often means less worry about credit delinquencies for AmEx.</p>\n<h2>4. Coca-Cola: $22.5 billion</h2>\n<p>Speaking of long-tenured holdings, beverage behemoth <b>Coca-Cola</b> (NYSE:KO) is the longest-held stock in Buffett's portfolio (33 years). Coca-Cola operates in all but two countries worldwide (North Korea and Cuba) and has more than 20 brands generating at least $1 billion in annual sales. Thanks to its top-notch marketing team, it's also the best-known consumer goods brand. Coke has holiday tie-ins, has allied itself with well-known brand ambassadors, and is embracing digital advertising and social media as a way to get its message to a younger generation.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cc21d6aabfd53f63ded95ae16cbd64e1\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"468\"><span>Image source: Getty Images.</span></p>\n<h2>5. Kraft Heinz: $14.1 billion</h2>\n<p>There's little question that <b>Kraft Heinz</b> (NASDAQ:KHC) is the oddball holding in Buffett's top 10. That's because Buffett admits to Heinz overpaying for Kraft Foods, and the combined company largely underperforming in recent years. This includes a greater than $15 billion goodwill writedown in 2019. While the pandemic has helped boost demand for packaged foods, Kraft Heinz's balance sheet is still bogged down by high debt levels and goodwill. In short, Berkshire Hathaway is sort of stuck with its 325.6 million shares.</p>\n<h2>6. Verizon Communications: $9.1 billion</h2>\n<p>Telecommunications giant <b>Verizon</b> (NYSE:VZ) is a fairly recent addition to Berkshire Hathaway's portfolio, although it's been bought hand over fist in the previous two quarters by Buffett and his team. The lure of Verizon is likely its 4.4% dividend yield, which is arguably <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE\">one</a> of the safest high-yield payouts on the planet. What's more, Verizon should benefit immensely from the rollout of 5G infrastructure. It's been a decade since the last major upgrade to download speeds, which suggests that a multiyear tech upgrade cycle will lead to higher-margin data consumption.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7343c3ce7330b86321a8ec9384d4baea\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"466\"><span>Image source: Getty Images.</span></p>\n<h2>7. U.S. Bancorp: $8.7 billion</h2>\n<p>Next to BofA, <b>U.S. Bancorp</b> (NYSE:USB) is Buffett's favorite bank stock. It's a company that regularly trades at a premium to its book value -- and for good reason. U.S. Bancorp has seen its users embrace technology, with the percentage of consumer loans completed digitally skyrocketing over the past two years. Being able to consolidate its physical branches, while also avoiding riskier derivative investments that have gotten U.S. money-center banks in trouble, has helped U.S. Bancorp to some of the highest return on assets among big banks.</p>\n<h2>8. Moody's: $8.5 billion</h2>\n<p>Credit agency and analytics company <b>Moody's</b> (NYSE:MCO) is yet another top-10 holding that's been held for longer than two decades. With an initial cost basis of just over $10, Berkshire Hathaway is sitting on an unrealized gain of better than 3,300% -- and this isn't accounting for dividends. Historically low lending rates have kept Moody's credit rating segment busy, while volatile trading markets are boosting demand for Moody's analytics. It's hard to envision Buffett ever selling this stake.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8abdae403dddfa42107e06ea5bfddf39\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"466\"><span>Image source: Getty Images.</span></p>\n<h2>9. BYD: $6.2 billion</h2>\n<p>Back in 2008, Buffett acquired 225 million shares of China-based electric-vehicle (EV) manufacturer <b>BYD</b> (OTC:BYDDY)&nbsp;for $1.03 a share (it closed this past week at $27.65 a share). In March, BYD sold 16,301 EVs, which is more than higher-profile competitors <b>NIO</b>&nbsp;and <b>XPeng</b>&nbsp;delivered on a combined basis in the same month. With the Society of Automotive Engineers of China forecasting that half of all new vehicles sales in 2035 will be powered by alternative energy, BYD is in pole position to disrupt the largest auto market in the world.</p>\n<h2>10. DaVita: $4.4 billion</h2>\n<p>Rounding out the top 10 is kidney dialysis services company <b>DaVita</b> (NYSE:DVA). Buffett's fascination with the company is likely a numbers play. Over time, an aging U.S. population is going to become more reliant on kidney dialysis services for maintenance purposes. As the clear leader in providing these services, DaVita should see a steady uptick in demand and reimbursement for its services. This patient long-term thesis perfectly embodies the Buffett investing ethos.</p>","source":"fool_stock","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>These 10 Stocks Make Up 85% of Warren Buffett's Portfolio</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nThese 10 Stocks Make Up 85% of Warren Buffett's Portfolio\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-06-17 09:35 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/06/16/10-stocks-make-up-85-of-warren-buffetts-portfolio/><strong>Motley Fool</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>If you've ever wondered why Berkshire Hathaway (NYSE:BRK.A)(NYSE:BRK.B) CEO Warren Buffett's name gets brought up so much on Wall Street, it's because of his impressive investing track record. Buffett...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/06/16/10-stocks-make-up-85-of-warren-buffetts-portfolio/\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"KHC":"卡夫亨氏","VZ":"威瑞森","USB":"美国合众银行","AXP":"美国运通","BRK.A":"伯克希尔","AAPL":"苹果","KO":"可口可乐","DVA":"达维塔保健","BRK.B":"伯克希尔B","BYDDY":"比亚迪ADR","BAC":"美国银行","MCO":"穆迪"},"source_url":"https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/06/16/10-stocks-make-up-85-of-warren-buffetts-portfolio/","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2143379379","content_text":"If you've ever wondered why Berkshire Hathaway (NYSE:BRK.A)(NYSE:BRK.B) CEO Warren Buffett's name gets brought up so much on Wall Street, it's because of his impressive investing track record. Buffett isn't infallible, but he's delivered an annual average return of 20% since the mid-1960s for his shareholders. In aggregate, we're talking about a return of more than 2,800,000%!\nWhat's even more amazing is that Buffett hasn't done anything the average investors couldn't do to net these huge gains. He focuses on a few sectors and industries that interest him, buys companies with clear-cut competitive advantages, and most importantly hangs onto those stakes for a very long time.\nAnother source of Buffett's success is concentration. The Oracle of Omaha doesn't believe diversification is necessary if you know what you're doing. This is readily apparent in Berkshire Hathaway's $302.6 billion investment portfolio. As of this past weekend, 85% of Berkshire's invested assets ($257.3 billion) were tied up in only 10 stocks.\nBerkshire Hathaway CEO Warren Buffett. Image source: The Motley Fool.\n1. Apple: $115.6 billion\nTech kingpin Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL) makes up about 38% of Warren Buffett's portfolio by itself and has been dubbed \"Berkshire's third business\" by the Oracle of Omaha. Apple offers some of the strongest branding in the world, is the clear leader in smartphones in the U.S., and has been pivoting to higher-margin services under the leadership of CEO Tim Cook. Though iPhone sales remain Apple's top product, services becoming a larger percentage of total sales will help remove the revenue lumpiness associated with new product launches.\n2. Bank of America: $43.2 billion\nBank stocks have long been Buffett's favorite place to put Berkshire's money work. Bank of America (NYSE:BAC) is Berkshire's unquestioned largest bank holding, with more than 14% of invested assets. Bank of America has done an excellent job of controlling its noninterest expenses by consolidating branches and emphasizing digital banking. It's also in line to benefit more than any other money-center bank from an eventual rise in interest rates.\nImage source: American Express.\n3. American Express: $24.9 billion\nPayment processor and lender American Express (NYSE:AXP) is Buffett's third-largest and third-longest-held stock. After 28 years of holding AmEx, Berkshire Hathaway's position has grown to almost $25 billion in value. This is a cyclical company that benefits from long periods of economic expansion, as well as its ability to attract affluent clientele. These well-to-do clients are less likely to change their spending habits when economic hiccups arise, which often means less worry about credit delinquencies for AmEx.\n4. Coca-Cola: $22.5 billion\nSpeaking of long-tenured holdings, beverage behemoth Coca-Cola (NYSE:KO) is the longest-held stock in Buffett's portfolio (33 years). Coca-Cola operates in all but two countries worldwide (North Korea and Cuba) and has more than 20 brands generating at least $1 billion in annual sales. Thanks to its top-notch marketing team, it's also the best-known consumer goods brand. Coke has holiday tie-ins, has allied itself with well-known brand ambassadors, and is embracing digital advertising and social media as a way to get its message to a younger generation.\nImage source: Getty Images.\n5. Kraft Heinz: $14.1 billion\nThere's little question that Kraft Heinz (NASDAQ:KHC) is the oddball holding in Buffett's top 10. That's because Buffett admits to Heinz overpaying for Kraft Foods, and the combined company largely underperforming in recent years. This includes a greater than $15 billion goodwill writedown in 2019. While the pandemic has helped boost demand for packaged foods, Kraft Heinz's balance sheet is still bogged down by high debt levels and goodwill. In short, Berkshire Hathaway is sort of stuck with its 325.6 million shares.\n6. Verizon Communications: $9.1 billion\nTelecommunications giant Verizon (NYSE:VZ) is a fairly recent addition to Berkshire Hathaway's portfolio, although it's been bought hand over fist in the previous two quarters by Buffett and his team. The lure of Verizon is likely its 4.4% dividend yield, which is arguably one of the safest high-yield payouts on the planet. What's more, Verizon should benefit immensely from the rollout of 5G infrastructure. It's been a decade since the last major upgrade to download speeds, which suggests that a multiyear tech upgrade cycle will lead to higher-margin data consumption.\nImage source: Getty Images.\n7. U.S. Bancorp: $8.7 billion\nNext to BofA, U.S. Bancorp (NYSE:USB) is Buffett's favorite bank stock. It's a company that regularly trades at a premium to its book value -- and for good reason. U.S. Bancorp has seen its users embrace technology, with the percentage of consumer loans completed digitally skyrocketing over the past two years. Being able to consolidate its physical branches, while also avoiding riskier derivative investments that have gotten U.S. money-center banks in trouble, has helped U.S. Bancorp to some of the highest return on assets among big banks.\n8. Moody's: $8.5 billion\nCredit agency and analytics company Moody's (NYSE:MCO) is yet another top-10 holding that's been held for longer than two decades. With an initial cost basis of just over $10, Berkshire Hathaway is sitting on an unrealized gain of better than 3,300% -- and this isn't accounting for dividends. Historically low lending rates have kept Moody's credit rating segment busy, while volatile trading markets are boosting demand for Moody's analytics. It's hard to envision Buffett ever selling this stake.\nImage source: Getty Images.\n9. BYD: $6.2 billion\nBack in 2008, Buffett acquired 225 million shares of China-based electric-vehicle (EV) manufacturer BYD (OTC:BYDDY) for $1.03 a share (it closed this past week at $27.65 a share). In March, BYD sold 16,301 EVs, which is more than higher-profile competitors NIO and XPeng delivered on a combined basis in the same month. With the Society of Automotive Engineers of China forecasting that half of all new vehicles sales in 2035 will be powered by alternative energy, BYD is in pole position to disrupt the largest auto market in the world.\n10. DaVita: $4.4 billion\nRounding out the top 10 is kidney dialysis services company DaVita (NYSE:DVA). Buffett's fascination with the company is likely a numbers play. Over time, an aging U.S. population is going to become more reliant on kidney dialysis services for maintenance purposes. As the clear leader in providing these services, DaVita should see a steady uptick in demand and reimbursement for its services. This patient long-term thesis perfectly embodies the Buffett investing ethos.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":133,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":169151352,"gmtCreate":1623823242776,"gmtModify":1634027527644,"author":{"id":"3563269355829633","authorId":"3563269355829633","name":"Mingq","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3563269355829633","authorIdStr":"3563269355829633"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Ok","listText":"Ok","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/169151352","repostId":"1182315358","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1182315358","pubTimestamp":1623814338,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1182315358?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-16 11:32","market":"us","language":"en","title":"It’s time to be smart like Soros in the ‘blow-off’ stage of the bull market in stocks","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1182315358","media":"MarketWatch","summary":"If you’re an investor, you need to be flexible, neither a bull nor a bear.\nIt takes brains and brawn","content":"<p>If you’re an investor, you need to be flexible, neither a bull nor a bear.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/724d1ea0bb18bddb367c79abf08c1af9\" tg-width=\"1260\" tg-height=\"841\"><span>It takes brains and brawn to be an investor these days. (Photo by Isaac Lawrence/AFP via Getty Images)</span></p>\n<p>I don’t know when what I call the Blow-Off Top of the Bubble-Blowing Bull Market will end.</p>\n<p>After 12 years being long and strong and having diamond hands without even knowing that term existed, maybe I’m wrong to turn more cautious.</p>\n<p>Maybe the economy will reopen and rejuvenate the country in such a strong manner that corporate earnings in 2022 and 2023 will make today’s prices seem like bargains.</p>\n<p>But I simply don’t think that’s the most likely outcome.</p>\n<p>And if I’m right that we’re in the throes of the Blow-Off Top of the Bubble-Blowing Bull Market, I do not want to be overly long and on the wrong side of the great unwind when it does start.</p>\n<p>I’m not calling for a near-term crash. I am saying that it’s likely going to be hard for the bulls to make as much money this year as they did last year.</p>\n<p>Trading and investing are tough. There’s always someone on the other side of every trade you make. Always think about who that is and why they are willing to take the other side of your transaction. When you buy, why are they selling it to you at that price? When you sell, who is buying it from you and what are their motivations? Remember, I’ve talked before about how&nbsp;good analysis starts with empathy.</p>\n<p><b>If I’m selling, who’s buying — and why?</b></p>\n<p>So let’s answer this question right now. Who is buying stocks and cryptos from me when I’ve trimmed and sold for the past month or so? Sure, there are banks and institutions and hedge funds and family offices investing and trading, just as always. On the other hand, remember two years ago when I got back from a hedge fund investment conference&nbsp;in Abu Dhabi and everybody was desperate for returns:</p>\n<p>Amid low interest rates and other investors’ focus on options, credit and currencies, “the lack of focus on traditional stocks and funds that invest in publicly traded stocks makes me think that there is probably more opportunity in such assets than people realize. I certainly see some very compelling long ideas in Revolutionary companies like WORK and TWTR and TSLA.”</p>\n<p>Since that post, back a year and a half ago, Slack&nbsp;went from $21 to being bought out at $45, Twitter&nbsp;went from $27 to $61, and Tesla&nbsp;went from $81 to $616. And funds that were looking everywhere but in the stock market for big gains are … well, pretty much in the markets now and long a bunch of stocks and even long a few cryptos.</p>\n<p>And now that those stocks and cryptos and most other assets have gone parabolic in the past year — coming on top of the 10-year bull market — the billion-dollar fund managers are joined by&nbsp;23-year-old TikTok influencers&nbsp;doing bitcoin&nbsp;trading astrology.</p>\n<p>Yes, for real, and she’s very popular. She’s even been right about some of bitcoin’s action in the past few months! If you’re selling cryptos and fintech stocks right now, you’re selling to her and her followers. And also to my friend’s son, who just graduated from a tiny, rural school and whose unemployed uncle gave him $500 to “buy some cryptos. And make sure you get some fintech. I don’t know the symbol, but just look it up and you’ll do fine over the long run.”&nbsp;Bearish anecdotes everywhere I look, as I wrote recently.</p>\n<p><b>Mr. Market</b></p>\n<p>The other thing to remember about who’s on the other side of your trade is always to remember that there are smart, cutthroat traders and investors who went to the best schools and have access to more research and real-time data and instant trading access to all kinds of derivatives to layer into their bets. And the only thing they do all day, every day, is figure out how to take your money in mostly legal ways. They’re not playing around. They have no sympathy for you, even if they might empathize with you to better understand your motivations to better take your money.</p>\n<p>Mr. Market is mean. He’s not nice. He can be cruel. He can force liquidations that create other liquidations. He can shut off access to capital. He can take down 200-year-old banks in a day. In one day.</p>\n<p>Sometimes the markets lead the economy and not the other way around. Ironically, when we were young, we were taught that the Great Depression started when the stock market crashed on Black Friday in 1929. But then when we get older, we were taught that it wasn’t actually the crash that created the Great Depression, rather the economy was already crashing and the stock market just didn’t realize it as it continued on its merry way toward a terrible Blow-Off Top of a nine-year Bubble-Blowing Bull Market that culminated with the Dow Jones Industrial Average&nbsp;up 400% from the 1921 lows to the 1929 highs.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3a6516337aacc614d83584ea90e174f2\" tg-width=\"1260\" tg-height=\"870\"></p>\n<p><b>Learning from Soros</b></p>\n<p>But looking back, it’s clear that both theories are equally right and wrong — the market crashed because the economy wasn’t as good as the market thought it was,<i>and</i>the economy crashed because the markets shut down access to capital for investment and growth.</p>\n<p>It was “reflexive,” to borrow a term from the great hedge fund manager&nbsp;George Soros.</p>\n<p>He wrote, and the concept is important to understand:</p>\n<p>“I continued to consider myself a failed philosopher. All this changed as a result of the financial crisis of 2008. My conceptual framework enabled me both to anticipate the crisis and to deal with it when it finally struck…</p>\n<p>“I can state the core idea in two relatively simple propositions. One is that in situations that have thinking participants, the participants’ view of the world is always partial and distorted. That is the principle of fallibility. The other is that these distorted views can influence the situation to which they relate because false views lead to inappropriate actions. That is the principle of reflexivity…</p>\n<p>“Recognizing reflexivity has been sacrificed to the vain pursuit of certainty in human affairs, most notably in economics, and yet, uncertainty is the key feature of human affairs. Economic theory is built on the concept of equilibrium, and that concept is in direct contradiction with the concept of reflexivity…</p>\n<p>“A positive feedback process is self-reinforcing. It cannot go on forever because eventually the participants’ views would become so far removed from objective reality that the participants would have to recognize them as unrealistic. Nor can the iterative process occur without any change in the actual state of affairs, because it is in the nature of positive feedback that it reinforces whatever tendency prevails in the real world. Instead of equilibrium, we are faced with a dynamic disequilibrium or what may be described as far-from-equilibrium conditions. Usually in far-from-equilibrium situations the divergence between perceptions and reality leads to a climax which sets in motion a positive feedback process in the opposite direction. Such initially self-reinforcing but eventually self-defeating boom-bust processes or bubbles are characteristic of financial markets, but they can also be found in other spheres. There, I call them fertile fallacies—interpretations of reality that are distorted, yet produce results which reinforce the distortion.”</p>\n<p>Stay flexible</p>\n<p>Far-from-equilibrium conditions was what we had in 2010-2013 when we loaded up on Revolutionary stocks and started buying cryptos like bitcoin. Far-from-equilibrium conditions might be what we have in front of us right now when I suggest getting cautious instead.</p>\n<p>We don’t want to be permabulls. (You for sure don’t want to be a permabear!) We have to be flexible. We have to let our analysis and risk/reward scenarios dictate how much risk we’re taking and when. We have to pay attention to the cycles, the self-reinforcing cycles that drive economies and markets and valuations and earnings and societal interactions and bailouts and financial crises and bubbles and busts and, heaven forbid, just simple stagnation.</p>\n<p>It’s as if everybody forgets that markets can bubble and crash and stagnate. They forget that markets can grind for years on end without making new highs, or without even making higher highs. Do you not remember telling your money manager sometime in 2010-2012 that “If I’d just handled the Great Financial Crisis (and/or the Dot-Com Crash) a little better, I’d be in better shape.” I used to hear people say that to me all the time. I haven’t heard anybody say that lately. Everybody’s having fun in this market … at least for now.</p>\n<p>Most traders will tell you that they are “just trading the market that is in front of them.” Well, I don’t know when the bubble will pop, but I do know that I don’t want to be on the wrong side of this market when it does. And I do know that we won’t know the bubble has really popped until the self-reinforcing reflexive feedback loop has made it painful for the vast majority of people who are right now feeling wealthy, feeling secure, feeling like they’ve got this trading and investing thing all figured out.</p>\n<p>We are all fallible. Be careful while it’s fun. Be bold when it’s painful. That’s how I’ve done it for the last 25 years. We were boldly buying these assets when it was painful for others. I’m careful right now because everybody else is having fun.</p>\n<p>I spend a lot of time looking for new ideas and I won’t let my overall market outlook deter me from buying a new name or two. But I want to remain overall cautious and less aggressive than I have been for most of the last decade.</p>\n<p>As a matter of fact,&nbsp;I might have at least a couple Trade Alerts that I’ll be sending out this week, one long and one short idea. Being flexible, see?</p>","source":"lsy1603348471595","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>It’s time to be smart like Soros in the ‘blow-off’ stage of the bull market in stocks</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nIt’s time to be smart like Soros in the ‘blow-off’ stage of the bull market in stocks\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-06-16 11:32 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.marketwatch.com/story/its-time-to-be-smart-like-soros-in-the-blow-off-stage-of-the-bull-market-in-stocks-11623788897?siteid=yhoof2><strong>MarketWatch</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>If you’re an investor, you need to be flexible, neither a bull nor a bear.\nIt takes brains and brawn to be an investor these days. (Photo by Isaac Lawrence/AFP via Getty Images)\nI don’t know when what...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/its-time-to-be-smart-like-soros-in-the-blow-off-stage-of-the-bull-market-in-stocks-11623788897?siteid=yhoof2\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/its-time-to-be-smart-like-soros-in-the-blow-off-stage-of-the-bull-market-in-stocks-11623788897?siteid=yhoof2","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1182315358","content_text":"If you’re an investor, you need to be flexible, neither a bull nor a bear.\nIt takes brains and brawn to be an investor these days. (Photo by Isaac Lawrence/AFP via Getty Images)\nI don’t know when what I call the Blow-Off Top of the Bubble-Blowing Bull Market will end.\nAfter 12 years being long and strong and having diamond hands without even knowing that term existed, maybe I’m wrong to turn more cautious.\nMaybe the economy will reopen and rejuvenate the country in such a strong manner that corporate earnings in 2022 and 2023 will make today’s prices seem like bargains.\nBut I simply don’t think that’s the most likely outcome.\nAnd if I’m right that we’re in the throes of the Blow-Off Top of the Bubble-Blowing Bull Market, I do not want to be overly long and on the wrong side of the great unwind when it does start.\nI’m not calling for a near-term crash. I am saying that it’s likely going to be hard for the bulls to make as much money this year as they did last year.\nTrading and investing are tough. There’s always someone on the other side of every trade you make. Always think about who that is and why they are willing to take the other side of your transaction. When you buy, why are they selling it to you at that price? When you sell, who is buying it from you and what are their motivations? Remember, I’ve talked before about how good analysis starts with empathy.\nIf I’m selling, who’s buying — and why?\nSo let’s answer this question right now. Who is buying stocks and cryptos from me when I’ve trimmed and sold for the past month or so? Sure, there are banks and institutions and hedge funds and family offices investing and trading, just as always. On the other hand, remember two years ago when I got back from a hedge fund investment conference in Abu Dhabi and everybody was desperate for returns:\nAmid low interest rates and other investors’ focus on options, credit and currencies, “the lack of focus on traditional stocks and funds that invest in publicly traded stocks makes me think that there is probably more opportunity in such assets than people realize. I certainly see some very compelling long ideas in Revolutionary companies like WORK and TWTR and TSLA.”\nSince that post, back a year and a half ago, Slack went from $21 to being bought out at $45, Twitter went from $27 to $61, and Tesla went from $81 to $616. And funds that were looking everywhere but in the stock market for big gains are … well, pretty much in the markets now and long a bunch of stocks and even long a few cryptos.\nAnd now that those stocks and cryptos and most other assets have gone parabolic in the past year — coming on top of the 10-year bull market — the billion-dollar fund managers are joined by 23-year-old TikTok influencers doing bitcoin trading astrology.\nYes, for real, and she’s very popular. She’s even been right about some of bitcoin’s action in the past few months! If you’re selling cryptos and fintech stocks right now, you’re selling to her and her followers. And also to my friend’s son, who just graduated from a tiny, rural school and whose unemployed uncle gave him $500 to “buy some cryptos. And make sure you get some fintech. I don’t know the symbol, but just look it up and you’ll do fine over the long run.” Bearish anecdotes everywhere I look, as I wrote recently.\nMr. Market\nThe other thing to remember about who’s on the other side of your trade is always to remember that there are smart, cutthroat traders and investors who went to the best schools and have access to more research and real-time data and instant trading access to all kinds of derivatives to layer into their bets. And the only thing they do all day, every day, is figure out how to take your money in mostly legal ways. They’re not playing around. They have no sympathy for you, even if they might empathize with you to better understand your motivations to better take your money.\nMr. Market is mean. He’s not nice. He can be cruel. He can force liquidations that create other liquidations. He can shut off access to capital. He can take down 200-year-old banks in a day. In one day.\nSometimes the markets lead the economy and not the other way around. Ironically, when we were young, we were taught that the Great Depression started when the stock market crashed on Black Friday in 1929. But then when we get older, we were taught that it wasn’t actually the crash that created the Great Depression, rather the economy was already crashing and the stock market just didn’t realize it as it continued on its merry way toward a terrible Blow-Off Top of a nine-year Bubble-Blowing Bull Market that culminated with the Dow Jones Industrial Average up 400% from the 1921 lows to the 1929 highs.\n\nLearning from Soros\nBut looking back, it’s clear that both theories are equally right and wrong — the market crashed because the economy wasn’t as good as the market thought it was,andthe economy crashed because the markets shut down access to capital for investment and growth.\nIt was “reflexive,” to borrow a term from the great hedge fund manager George Soros.\nHe wrote, and the concept is important to understand:\n“I continued to consider myself a failed philosopher. All this changed as a result of the financial crisis of 2008. My conceptual framework enabled me both to anticipate the crisis and to deal with it when it finally struck…\n“I can state the core idea in two relatively simple propositions. One is that in situations that have thinking participants, the participants’ view of the world is always partial and distorted. That is the principle of fallibility. The other is that these distorted views can influence the situation to which they relate because false views lead to inappropriate actions. That is the principle of reflexivity…\n“Recognizing reflexivity has been sacrificed to the vain pursuit of certainty in human affairs, most notably in economics, and yet, uncertainty is the key feature of human affairs. Economic theory is built on the concept of equilibrium, and that concept is in direct contradiction with the concept of reflexivity…\n“A positive feedback process is self-reinforcing. It cannot go on forever because eventually the participants’ views would become so far removed from objective reality that the participants would have to recognize them as unrealistic. Nor can the iterative process occur without any change in the actual state of affairs, because it is in the nature of positive feedback that it reinforces whatever tendency prevails in the real world. Instead of equilibrium, we are faced with a dynamic disequilibrium or what may be described as far-from-equilibrium conditions. Usually in far-from-equilibrium situations the divergence between perceptions and reality leads to a climax which sets in motion a positive feedback process in the opposite direction. Such initially self-reinforcing but eventually self-defeating boom-bust processes or bubbles are characteristic of financial markets, but they can also be found in other spheres. There, I call them fertile fallacies—interpretations of reality that are distorted, yet produce results which reinforce the distortion.”\nStay flexible\nFar-from-equilibrium conditions was what we had in 2010-2013 when we loaded up on Revolutionary stocks and started buying cryptos like bitcoin. Far-from-equilibrium conditions might be what we have in front of us right now when I suggest getting cautious instead.\nWe don’t want to be permabulls. (You for sure don’t want to be a permabear!) We have to be flexible. We have to let our analysis and risk/reward scenarios dictate how much risk we’re taking and when. We have to pay attention to the cycles, the self-reinforcing cycles that drive economies and markets and valuations and earnings and societal interactions and bailouts and financial crises and bubbles and busts and, heaven forbid, just simple stagnation.\nIt’s as if everybody forgets that markets can bubble and crash and stagnate. They forget that markets can grind for years on end without making new highs, or without even making higher highs. Do you not remember telling your money manager sometime in 2010-2012 that “If I’d just handled the Great Financial Crisis (and/or the Dot-Com Crash) a little better, I’d be in better shape.” I used to hear people say that to me all the time. I haven’t heard anybody say that lately. Everybody’s having fun in this market … at least for now.\nMost traders will tell you that they are “just trading the market that is in front of them.” Well, I don’t know when the bubble will pop, but I do know that I don’t want to be on the wrong side of this market when it does. And I do know that we won’t know the bubble has really popped until the self-reinforcing reflexive feedback loop has made it painful for the vast majority of people who are right now feeling wealthy, feeling secure, feeling like they’ve got this trading and investing thing all figured out.\nWe are all fallible. Be careful while it’s fun. Be bold when it’s painful. That’s how I’ve done it for the last 25 years. We were boldly buying these assets when it was painful for others. I’m careful right now because everybody else is having fun.\nI spend a lot of time looking for new ideas and I won’t let my overall market outlook deter me from buying a new name or two. But I want to remain overall cautious and less aggressive than I have been for most of the last decade.\nAs a matter of fact, I might have at least a couple Trade Alerts that I’ll be sending out this week, one long and one short idea. Being flexible, see?","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":164,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":187885676,"gmtCreate":1623749337795,"gmtModify":1634029128436,"author":{"id":"3563269355829633","authorId":"3563269355829633","name":"Mingq","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3563269355829633","authorIdStr":"3563269355829633"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Hi","listText":"Hi","text":"Hi","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/187885676","repostId":"2143581857","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":58,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":185263214,"gmtCreate":1623654067138,"gmtModify":1634030595149,"author":{"id":"3563269355829633","authorId":"3563269355829633","name":"Mingq","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3563269355829633","authorIdStr":"3563269355829633"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Hi","listText":"Hi","text":"Hi","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/185263214","repostId":"1165811803","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":234,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":181622811,"gmtCreate":1623391500233,"gmtModify":1634033828012,"author":{"id":"3563269355829633","authorId":"3563269355829633","name":"Mingq","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3563269355829633","authorIdStr":"3563269355829633"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Yes","listText":"Yes","text":"Yes","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/181622811","repostId":"2142527967","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":123,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":161113539,"gmtCreate":1623910254221,"gmtModify":1634025974682,"author":{"id":"3563269355829633","authorId":"3563269355829633","name":"Mingq","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3563269355829633","idStr":"3563269355829633"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Yes","listText":"Yes","text":"Yes","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/161113539","repostId":"2143379379","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2143379379","pubTimestamp":1623893744,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2143379379?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-17 09:35","market":"us","language":"en","title":"These 10 Stocks Make Up 85% of Warren Buffett's Portfolio","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2143379379","media":"Motley Fool","summary":"Diversification isn't necessary if you know what you're doing, according to the Oracle of Omaha.","content":"<p>If you've ever wondered why <b>Berkshire Hathaway</b> (NYSE:BRK.A)(NYSE:BRK.B) CEO Warren Buffett's name gets brought up so much on Wall Street, it's because of his impressive investing track record. Buffett isn't infallible, but he's delivered an annual average return of 20% since the mid-1960s for his shareholders. In aggregate, we're talking about a return of more than 2,800,000%!</p>\n<p>What's even more amazing is that Buffett hasn't done anything the average investors couldn't do to net these huge gains. He focuses on a few sectors and industries that interest him, buys companies with clear-cut competitive advantages, and most importantly hangs onto those stakes for a very long time.</p>\n<p>Another source of Buffett's success is concentration. The Oracle of Omaha doesn't believe diversification is necessary if you know what you're doing. This is readily apparent in Berkshire Hathaway's $302.6 billion investment portfolio. As of this past weekend, 85% of Berkshire's invested assets ($257.3 billion) were tied up in only 10 stocks.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/601f21f3cc2f9e5524bd5d613063faa2\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"466\"><span>Berkshire Hathaway CEO Warren Buffett. Image source: The Motley Fool.</span></p>\n<h2>1. Apple: $115.6 billion</h2>\n<p>Tech kingpin <b>Apple</b> (NASDAQ:AAPL) makes up about 38% of Warren Buffett's portfolio by itself and has been dubbed \"Berkshire's third business\" by the Oracle of Omaha. Apple offers some of the strongest branding in the world, is the clear leader in smartphones in the U.S., and has been pivoting to higher-margin services under the leadership of CEO Tim Cook. Though iPhone sales remain Apple's top product, services becoming a larger percentage of total sales will help remove the revenue lumpiness associated with new product launches.</p>\n<h2>2. Bank of America: $43.2 billion</h2>\n<p>Bank stocks have long been Buffett's favorite place to put Berkshire's money work. <b>Bank of America</b> (NYSE:BAC) is Berkshire's unquestioned largest bank holding, with more than 14% of invested assets. Bank of America has done an excellent job of controlling its noninterest expenses by consolidating branches and emphasizing digital banking. It's also in line to benefit more than any other money-center bank from an eventual rise in interest rates.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ed3e6a16841306014bf0cfc3b1697b23\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"466\"><span>Image source: American <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/EXPR\">Express</a>.</span></p>\n<h2>3. American Express: $24.9 billion</h2>\n<p>Payment processor and lender <b>American Express</b> (NYSE:AXP) is Buffett's third-largest and third-longest-held stock. After 28 years of holding AmEx, Berkshire Hathaway's position has grown to almost $25 billion in value. This is a cyclical company that benefits from long periods of economic expansion, as well as its ability to attract affluent clientele. These well-to-do clients are less likely to change their spending habits when economic hiccups arise, which often means less worry about credit delinquencies for AmEx.</p>\n<h2>4. Coca-Cola: $22.5 billion</h2>\n<p>Speaking of long-tenured holdings, beverage behemoth <b>Coca-Cola</b> (NYSE:KO) is the longest-held stock in Buffett's portfolio (33 years). Coca-Cola operates in all but two countries worldwide (North Korea and Cuba) and has more than 20 brands generating at least $1 billion in annual sales. Thanks to its top-notch marketing team, it's also the best-known consumer goods brand. Coke has holiday tie-ins, has allied itself with well-known brand ambassadors, and is embracing digital advertising and social media as a way to get its message to a younger generation.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cc21d6aabfd53f63ded95ae16cbd64e1\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"468\"><span>Image source: Getty Images.</span></p>\n<h2>5. Kraft Heinz: $14.1 billion</h2>\n<p>There's little question that <b>Kraft Heinz</b> (NASDAQ:KHC) is the oddball holding in Buffett's top 10. That's because Buffett admits to Heinz overpaying for Kraft Foods, and the combined company largely underperforming in recent years. This includes a greater than $15 billion goodwill writedown in 2019. While the pandemic has helped boost demand for packaged foods, Kraft Heinz's balance sheet is still bogged down by high debt levels and goodwill. In short, Berkshire Hathaway is sort of stuck with its 325.6 million shares.</p>\n<h2>6. Verizon Communications: $9.1 billion</h2>\n<p>Telecommunications giant <b>Verizon</b> (NYSE:VZ) is a fairly recent addition to Berkshire Hathaway's portfolio, although it's been bought hand over fist in the previous two quarters by Buffett and his team. The lure of Verizon is likely its 4.4% dividend yield, which is arguably <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE\">one</a> of the safest high-yield payouts on the planet. What's more, Verizon should benefit immensely from the rollout of 5G infrastructure. It's been a decade since the last major upgrade to download speeds, which suggests that a multiyear tech upgrade cycle will lead to higher-margin data consumption.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7343c3ce7330b86321a8ec9384d4baea\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"466\"><span>Image source: Getty Images.</span></p>\n<h2>7. U.S. Bancorp: $8.7 billion</h2>\n<p>Next to BofA, <b>U.S. Bancorp</b> (NYSE:USB) is Buffett's favorite bank stock. It's a company that regularly trades at a premium to its book value -- and for good reason. U.S. Bancorp has seen its users embrace technology, with the percentage of consumer loans completed digitally skyrocketing over the past two years. Being able to consolidate its physical branches, while also avoiding riskier derivative investments that have gotten U.S. money-center banks in trouble, has helped U.S. Bancorp to some of the highest return on assets among big banks.</p>\n<h2>8. Moody's: $8.5 billion</h2>\n<p>Credit agency and analytics company <b>Moody's</b> (NYSE:MCO) is yet another top-10 holding that's been held for longer than two decades. With an initial cost basis of just over $10, Berkshire Hathaway is sitting on an unrealized gain of better than 3,300% -- and this isn't accounting for dividends. Historically low lending rates have kept Moody's credit rating segment busy, while volatile trading markets are boosting demand for Moody's analytics. It's hard to envision Buffett ever selling this stake.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8abdae403dddfa42107e06ea5bfddf39\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"466\"><span>Image source: Getty Images.</span></p>\n<h2>9. BYD: $6.2 billion</h2>\n<p>Back in 2008, Buffett acquired 225 million shares of China-based electric-vehicle (EV) manufacturer <b>BYD</b> (OTC:BYDDY)&nbsp;for $1.03 a share (it closed this past week at $27.65 a share). In March, BYD sold 16,301 EVs, which is more than higher-profile competitors <b>NIO</b>&nbsp;and <b>XPeng</b>&nbsp;delivered on a combined basis in the same month. With the Society of Automotive Engineers of China forecasting that half of all new vehicles sales in 2035 will be powered by alternative energy, BYD is in pole position to disrupt the largest auto market in the world.</p>\n<h2>10. DaVita: $4.4 billion</h2>\n<p>Rounding out the top 10 is kidney dialysis services company <b>DaVita</b> (NYSE:DVA). Buffett's fascination with the company is likely a numbers play. Over time, an aging U.S. population is going to become more reliant on kidney dialysis services for maintenance purposes. As the clear leader in providing these services, DaVita should see a steady uptick in demand and reimbursement for its services. This patient long-term thesis perfectly embodies the Buffett investing ethos.</p>","source":"fool_stock","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>These 10 Stocks Make Up 85% of Warren Buffett's Portfolio</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nThese 10 Stocks Make Up 85% of Warren Buffett's Portfolio\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-06-17 09:35 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/06/16/10-stocks-make-up-85-of-warren-buffetts-portfolio/><strong>Motley Fool</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>If you've ever wondered why Berkshire Hathaway (NYSE:BRK.A)(NYSE:BRK.B) CEO Warren Buffett's name gets brought up so much on Wall Street, it's because of his impressive investing track record. Buffett...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/06/16/10-stocks-make-up-85-of-warren-buffetts-portfolio/\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"KHC":"卡夫亨氏","VZ":"威瑞森","USB":"美国合众银行","AXP":"美国运通","BRK.A":"伯克希尔","AAPL":"苹果","KO":"可口可乐","DVA":"达维塔保健","BRK.B":"伯克希尔B","BYDDY":"比亚迪ADR","BAC":"美国银行","MCO":"穆迪"},"source_url":"https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/06/16/10-stocks-make-up-85-of-warren-buffetts-portfolio/","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2143379379","content_text":"If you've ever wondered why Berkshire Hathaway (NYSE:BRK.A)(NYSE:BRK.B) CEO Warren Buffett's name gets brought up so much on Wall Street, it's because of his impressive investing track record. Buffett isn't infallible, but he's delivered an annual average return of 20% since the mid-1960s for his shareholders. In aggregate, we're talking about a return of more than 2,800,000%!\nWhat's even more amazing is that Buffett hasn't done anything the average investors couldn't do to net these huge gains. He focuses on a few sectors and industries that interest him, buys companies with clear-cut competitive advantages, and most importantly hangs onto those stakes for a very long time.\nAnother source of Buffett's success is concentration. The Oracle of Omaha doesn't believe diversification is necessary if you know what you're doing. This is readily apparent in Berkshire Hathaway's $302.6 billion investment portfolio. As of this past weekend, 85% of Berkshire's invested assets ($257.3 billion) were tied up in only 10 stocks.\nBerkshire Hathaway CEO Warren Buffett. Image source: The Motley Fool.\n1. Apple: $115.6 billion\nTech kingpin Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL) makes up about 38% of Warren Buffett's portfolio by itself and has been dubbed \"Berkshire's third business\" by the Oracle of Omaha. Apple offers some of the strongest branding in the world, is the clear leader in smartphones in the U.S., and has been pivoting to higher-margin services under the leadership of CEO Tim Cook. Though iPhone sales remain Apple's top product, services becoming a larger percentage of total sales will help remove the revenue lumpiness associated with new product launches.\n2. Bank of America: $43.2 billion\nBank stocks have long been Buffett's favorite place to put Berkshire's money work. Bank of America (NYSE:BAC) is Berkshire's unquestioned largest bank holding, with more than 14% of invested assets. Bank of America has done an excellent job of controlling its noninterest expenses by consolidating branches and emphasizing digital banking. It's also in line to benefit more than any other money-center bank from an eventual rise in interest rates.\nImage source: American Express.\n3. American Express: $24.9 billion\nPayment processor and lender American Express (NYSE:AXP) is Buffett's third-largest and third-longest-held stock. After 28 years of holding AmEx, Berkshire Hathaway's position has grown to almost $25 billion in value. This is a cyclical company that benefits from long periods of economic expansion, as well as its ability to attract affluent clientele. These well-to-do clients are less likely to change their spending habits when economic hiccups arise, which often means less worry about credit delinquencies for AmEx.\n4. Coca-Cola: $22.5 billion\nSpeaking of long-tenured holdings, beverage behemoth Coca-Cola (NYSE:KO) is the longest-held stock in Buffett's portfolio (33 years). Coca-Cola operates in all but two countries worldwide (North Korea and Cuba) and has more than 20 brands generating at least $1 billion in annual sales. Thanks to its top-notch marketing team, it's also the best-known consumer goods brand. Coke has holiday tie-ins, has allied itself with well-known brand ambassadors, and is embracing digital advertising and social media as a way to get its message to a younger generation.\nImage source: Getty Images.\n5. Kraft Heinz: $14.1 billion\nThere's little question that Kraft Heinz (NASDAQ:KHC) is the oddball holding in Buffett's top 10. That's because Buffett admits to Heinz overpaying for Kraft Foods, and the combined company largely underperforming in recent years. This includes a greater than $15 billion goodwill writedown in 2019. While the pandemic has helped boost demand for packaged foods, Kraft Heinz's balance sheet is still bogged down by high debt levels and goodwill. In short, Berkshire Hathaway is sort of stuck with its 325.6 million shares.\n6. Verizon Communications: $9.1 billion\nTelecommunications giant Verizon (NYSE:VZ) is a fairly recent addition to Berkshire Hathaway's portfolio, although it's been bought hand over fist in the previous two quarters by Buffett and his team. The lure of Verizon is likely its 4.4% dividend yield, which is arguably one of the safest high-yield payouts on the planet. What's more, Verizon should benefit immensely from the rollout of 5G infrastructure. It's been a decade since the last major upgrade to download speeds, which suggests that a multiyear tech upgrade cycle will lead to higher-margin data consumption.\nImage source: Getty Images.\n7. U.S. Bancorp: $8.7 billion\nNext to BofA, U.S. Bancorp (NYSE:USB) is Buffett's favorite bank stock. It's a company that regularly trades at a premium to its book value -- and for good reason. U.S. Bancorp has seen its users embrace technology, with the percentage of consumer loans completed digitally skyrocketing over the past two years. Being able to consolidate its physical branches, while also avoiding riskier derivative investments that have gotten U.S. money-center banks in trouble, has helped U.S. Bancorp to some of the highest return on assets among big banks.\n8. Moody's: $8.5 billion\nCredit agency and analytics company Moody's (NYSE:MCO) is yet another top-10 holding that's been held for longer than two decades. With an initial cost basis of just over $10, Berkshire Hathaway is sitting on an unrealized gain of better than 3,300% -- and this isn't accounting for dividends. Historically low lending rates have kept Moody's credit rating segment busy, while volatile trading markets are boosting demand for Moody's analytics. It's hard to envision Buffett ever selling this stake.\nImage source: Getty Images.\n9. BYD: $6.2 billion\nBack in 2008, Buffett acquired 225 million shares of China-based electric-vehicle (EV) manufacturer BYD (OTC:BYDDY) for $1.03 a share (it closed this past week at $27.65 a share). In March, BYD sold 16,301 EVs, which is more than higher-profile competitors NIO and XPeng delivered on a combined basis in the same month. With the Society of Automotive Engineers of China forecasting that half of all new vehicles sales in 2035 will be powered by alternative energy, BYD is in pole position to disrupt the largest auto market in the world.\n10. DaVita: $4.4 billion\nRounding out the top 10 is kidney dialysis services company DaVita (NYSE:DVA). Buffett's fascination with the company is likely a numbers play. Over time, an aging U.S. population is going to become more reliant on kidney dialysis services for maintenance purposes. As the clear leader in providing these services, DaVita should see a steady uptick in demand and reimbursement for its services. This patient long-term thesis perfectly embodies the Buffett investing ethos.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":133,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":185263214,"gmtCreate":1623654067138,"gmtModify":1634030595149,"author":{"id":"3563269355829633","authorId":"3563269355829633","name":"Mingq","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3563269355829633","idStr":"3563269355829633"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Hi","listText":"Hi","text":"Hi","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/185263214","repostId":"1165811803","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1165811803","pubTimestamp":1623632712,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1165811803?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-14 09:05","market":"us","language":"en","title":"4 Unshortable Stocks That Are Too Risky to Bet Against","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1165811803","media":"InvestorPlace","summary":"If you are thinking about shorting one of these companies, you're doing something wrong. The markets are dealing with an army of investors who are after heavily shorted stocks. But there are also fundamentally strong names where initiating a short position can be risky. These are the so called unshortable stocks.From a fundamental perspective, Nvidia has been on a high growth trajectory. For the first quarter of 2022, the company reported revenue growth of 84% to $5.66 billion. Growth was health","content":"<p>If you are thinking about shorting one of these companies, you're doing something wrong</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/203e343ee38d5c182697edcd4932e483\" tg-width=\"1024\" tg-height=\"576\"><span>Source: Vladeep / Shutterstock.com</span></p>\n<p>The markets are dealing with an army of investors who are after heavily shorted stocks. But there are also fundamentally strong names where initiating a short position can be risky. These are the so called unshortable stocks.</p>\n<p>True,&nbsp;Short squeeze rallies have delivered multi-fold returns for investors.<b>AMC Entertainment</b>(NYSE:<b><u>AMC</u></b>) is the recent case of a short squeeze rally. However, this does not change the fact that some stocks are worth going short. It’s very likely that AMC stock will witness an equally sharp correction.</p>\n<p>That’s not the case with unshortable stocks.</p>\n<p>My focus is on four unshortable stocks where short interest as a percentage of free float is approximately 1%. Two of these stocks trade near all-time highs. The other two are in a consolidation mode and there seems to be a high probability of a breakout on the upside.</p>\n<p>The reasons for these stocks being unshortable are strong fundamentals, high growth and strong cash flows. Additionally, there are ample positive business growth catalysts on the horizon.</p>\n<p>Let’s take a deeper look into the reasons that make these stocks unshortable.</p>\n<ul>\n <li><b>Nvidia</b>(NASDAQ:<b><u>NVDA</u></b>)</li>\n <li><b>Target</b>(NYSE:<b><u>TGT</u></b>)</li>\n <li><b>Shopify</b>(NYSE:<b><u>SHOP</u></b>)</li>\n <li><b>Apple</b>(NASDAQ:<b><u>AAPL</u></b>)</li>\n</ul>\n<p><b>Nvidia (NVDA)</b></p>\n<p>NVDA stock is currently trading near 52-week highs. However, the short interest in the stock is just 1% of the free float. This is probably an indication of the point that NVDA stock is among the unshortable stocks.</p>\n<p>From a fundamental perspective, Nvidia has been on a high growth trajectory. For the first quarter of 2022, the company reported revenue growth of 84% to $5.66 billion. Growth was healthy in the gaming as well as data center segment.</p>\n<p>In addition, Nvidia reported&nbsp;operating cash flow of $1.9 billion for the quarter. This would imply an annualized operating cash flow of nearly $8 billion. The company has high financial flexibility to invest in innovation and pursue inorganic growth.</p>\n<p>In a recent news, Nvidia has asked&nbsp;Chinese regulators to approve the $40 billion acquisition&nbsp;of&nbsp;<b>Arm</b>. A possible approval in the coming quarters will ensure that the stock momentum remains positive.</p>\n<p>With focus on artificial intelligence, Nvidia has also made inroads in multiple industries. This includes AI chips and solutions for robotics, self-driving and healthcare, among others. Therefore, with multiple growth catalysts, NVDA stock remains attractive.</p>\n<p><b>Target (TGT)</b></p>\n<p>TGT stock is another name that I would include among unshortable stocks. The stock trades near all-time highs and looks good for further upside.</p>\n<p>UBS analyst Michael Lasser sees Target as “structurally improved as its strong positioning&nbsp;becomes even clearer in upcoming quarters.” Lasser has a price target of $265 for the stock.</p>\n<p>As the U.S. economy witnesses wider reopening, Target is positioned to benefit. According to Moody’s Analytics, Americans were holding&nbsp;$2.6 trillion in excess savings as of mid-April. The possibility of a post-pandemic consumption boom is likely to be good news for Target, among other retailers.</p>\n<p>Target has already been delivering stellar growth. For the first quarter, the company&nbsp;reported comparable sales growth of 22.9%&nbsp;on a year-on-year basis. Digital comparable sales growth was 50%.</p>\n<p>Clearly, Target is emerging from the pandemic with superior omni-channel capabilities. Initiatives such as order pick-up, drive-up and same-day shipment services are likely to ensure that comparable sales growth remains strong.</p>\n<p>From a financial perspective, Target reported cash flows of $1.1 billion for the quarter. With more than $4 billion in annualized cash flow visibility, dividend and share repurchase will continue.</p>\n<p>Overall, TGT stock looks attractive considering the growth momentum. With an impending spending boom, it might be best to avoid shorting the stock.</p>\n<p><b>Shopify (SHOP)</b></p>\n<p>SHOP stock seems to be trading at premium valuations. However, the stock has consolidated in the broad range of $1,000 to $1,200. Short interest is low and considering the company’s growth outlook, the stock is among the top unshortable stocks.</p>\n<p>For the first quarter, Shopify reported revenue growth of 110% on a year-over-year basis to $988.6 million. An important point to note is that&nbsp;monthly recurring revenue accelerated by 62% to $89.9 million. With sustained growth in monthly recurring revenue, the company is positioned for robust long-term cash flows.</p>\n<p>With the pandemic, e-commerce growth has accelerated globally. Shopify is likely to benefit from positive tailwinds in the coming years. It’s also worth noting that the company has&nbsp;expanded offerings for merchants. This includes Shopify Capital, Shopify Shipping and Shopify Plus. As merchants scale up, there is ample scope for revenue growth.</p>\n<p>As of March, Shopify reported $7.87 billion in cash and equivalents. As the company expands globally, there is ample financial flexibility to invest in platform upgrade and new merchant solutions. As an example, the company recently introduced Shopify POS offering to merchants.</p>\n<p>Overall, SHOP stock looks attractive with strong top-line growth and clear visibility for robust cash flows in the long-term.</p>\n<p><b>Apple (AAPL)</b></p>\n<p>AAPL stock is another name that too risky to bet against. The company has always surprised investors and it seems that the stock is positioned for a breakout after the current consolidation. With strong growth and a production innovation pipeline, it’s not surprising that short interest in AAPL stock is less than 1% of the free float.</p>\n<p>As I write,<i>Reuters</i>&nbsp;reports that Apple is in&nbsp;talks with Chinese manufacturers for a car battery factory&nbsp;in the U.S. The company seems to be gradually working towards its first electric vehicle. That’s likely to keep the markets excited.</p>\n<p>Apple has also witnessed&nbsp;strong growth in the wearables and services segment. Besides strong top-line growth, revenue is more diversified. At the same time, iPhone sales are likely to remain robust with 5G being a key growth driver.</p>\n<p>Apple’s cash glut also implies sustained value creation through share repurchase and possibly higher dividends. Of course, the cash buffer gives the company ample headroom to invest in product innovation and possible acquisitions.</p>\n<p>Overall, as strong growth sustains, it’s too risky to short AAPL stock. On the contrary, current levels look attractive for considering some long-term exposure.</p>","source":"lsy1606302653667","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>4 Unshortable Stocks That Are Too Risky to Bet Against</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n4 Unshortable Stocks That Are Too Risky to Bet Against\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-06-14 09:05 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://investorplace.com/2021/06/4-unshortable-stocks-that-are-too-risky-to-bet-against/><strong>InvestorPlace</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>If you are thinking about shorting one of these companies, you're doing something wrong\nSource: Vladeep / Shutterstock.com\nThe markets are dealing with an army of investors who are after heavily ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://investorplace.com/2021/06/4-unshortable-stocks-that-are-too-risky-to-bet-against/\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"SHOP":"Shopify Inc","NVDA":"英伟达","AAPL":"苹果","TGT":"塔吉特"},"source_url":"https://investorplace.com/2021/06/4-unshortable-stocks-that-are-too-risky-to-bet-against/","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1165811803","content_text":"If you are thinking about shorting one of these companies, you're doing something wrong\nSource: Vladeep / Shutterstock.com\nThe markets are dealing with an army of investors who are after heavily shorted stocks. But there are also fundamentally strong names where initiating a short position can be risky. These are the so called unshortable stocks.\nTrue, Short squeeze rallies have delivered multi-fold returns for investors.AMC Entertainment(NYSE:AMC) is the recent case of a short squeeze rally. However, this does not change the fact that some stocks are worth going short. It’s very likely that AMC stock will witness an equally sharp correction.\nThat’s not the case with unshortable stocks.\nMy focus is on four unshortable stocks where short interest as a percentage of free float is approximately 1%. Two of these stocks trade near all-time highs. The other two are in a consolidation mode and there seems to be a high probability of a breakout on the upside.\nThe reasons for these stocks being unshortable are strong fundamentals, high growth and strong cash flows. Additionally, there are ample positive business growth catalysts on the horizon.\nLet’s take a deeper look into the reasons that make these stocks unshortable.\n\nNvidia(NASDAQ:NVDA)\nTarget(NYSE:TGT)\nShopify(NYSE:SHOP)\nApple(NASDAQ:AAPL)\n\nNvidia (NVDA)\nNVDA stock is currently trading near 52-week highs. However, the short interest in the stock is just 1% of the free float. This is probably an indication of the point that NVDA stock is among the unshortable stocks.\nFrom a fundamental perspective, Nvidia has been on a high growth trajectory. For the first quarter of 2022, the company reported revenue growth of 84% to $5.66 billion. Growth was healthy in the gaming as well as data center segment.\nIn addition, Nvidia reported operating cash flow of $1.9 billion for the quarter. This would imply an annualized operating cash flow of nearly $8 billion. The company has high financial flexibility to invest in innovation and pursue inorganic growth.\nIn a recent news, Nvidia has asked Chinese regulators to approve the $40 billion acquisition of Arm. A possible approval in the coming quarters will ensure that the stock momentum remains positive.\nWith focus on artificial intelligence, Nvidia has also made inroads in multiple industries. This includes AI chips and solutions for robotics, self-driving and healthcare, among others. Therefore, with multiple growth catalysts, NVDA stock remains attractive.\nTarget (TGT)\nTGT stock is another name that I would include among unshortable stocks. The stock trades near all-time highs and looks good for further upside.\nUBS analyst Michael Lasser sees Target as “structurally improved as its strong positioning becomes even clearer in upcoming quarters.” Lasser has a price target of $265 for the stock.\nAs the U.S. economy witnesses wider reopening, Target is positioned to benefit. According to Moody’s Analytics, Americans were holding $2.6 trillion in excess savings as of mid-April. The possibility of a post-pandemic consumption boom is likely to be good news for Target, among other retailers.\nTarget has already been delivering stellar growth. For the first quarter, the company reported comparable sales growth of 22.9% on a year-on-year basis. Digital comparable sales growth was 50%.\nClearly, Target is emerging from the pandemic with superior omni-channel capabilities. Initiatives such as order pick-up, drive-up and same-day shipment services are likely to ensure that comparable sales growth remains strong.\nFrom a financial perspective, Target reported cash flows of $1.1 billion for the quarter. With more than $4 billion in annualized cash flow visibility, dividend and share repurchase will continue.\nOverall, TGT stock looks attractive considering the growth momentum. With an impending spending boom, it might be best to avoid shorting the stock.\nShopify (SHOP)\nSHOP stock seems to be trading at premium valuations. However, the stock has consolidated in the broad range of $1,000 to $1,200. Short interest is low and considering the company’s growth outlook, the stock is among the top unshortable stocks.\nFor the first quarter, Shopify reported revenue growth of 110% on a year-over-year basis to $988.6 million. An important point to note is that monthly recurring revenue accelerated by 62% to $89.9 million. With sustained growth in monthly recurring revenue, the company is positioned for robust long-term cash flows.\nWith the pandemic, e-commerce growth has accelerated globally. Shopify is likely to benefit from positive tailwinds in the coming years. It’s also worth noting that the company has expanded offerings for merchants. This includes Shopify Capital, Shopify Shipping and Shopify Plus. As merchants scale up, there is ample scope for revenue growth.\nAs of March, Shopify reported $7.87 billion in cash and equivalents. As the company expands globally, there is ample financial flexibility to invest in platform upgrade and new merchant solutions. As an example, the company recently introduced Shopify POS offering to merchants.\nOverall, SHOP stock looks attractive with strong top-line growth and clear visibility for robust cash flows in the long-term.\nApple (AAPL)\nAAPL stock is another name that too risky to bet against. The company has always surprised investors and it seems that the stock is positioned for a breakout after the current consolidation. With strong growth and a production innovation pipeline, it’s not surprising that short interest in AAPL stock is less than 1% of the free float.\nAs I write,Reuters reports that Apple is in talks with Chinese manufacturers for a car battery factory in the U.S. The company seems to be gradually working towards its first electric vehicle. That’s likely to keep the markets excited.\nApple has also witnessed strong growth in the wearables and services segment. Besides strong top-line growth, revenue is more diversified. At the same time, iPhone sales are likely to remain robust with 5G being a key growth driver.\nApple’s cash glut also implies sustained value creation through share repurchase and possibly higher dividends. Of course, the cash buffer gives the company ample headroom to invest in product innovation and possible acquisitions.\nOverall, as strong growth sustains, it’s too risky to short AAPL stock. On the contrary, current levels look attractive for considering some long-term exposure.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":234,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":181622811,"gmtCreate":1623391500233,"gmtModify":1634033828012,"author":{"id":"3563269355829633","authorId":"3563269355829633","name":"Mingq","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3563269355829633","idStr":"3563269355829633"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Yes","listText":"Yes","text":"Yes","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/181622811","repostId":"2142527967","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2142527967","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Reuters.com brings you the latest news from around the world, covering breaking news in markets, business, politics, entertainment and technology","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Reuters","id":"1036604489","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/443ce19704621c837795676028cec868"},"pubTimestamp":1623386894,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2142527967?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-11 12:48","market":"hk","language":"en","title":"Ganfeng Lithium's HK shares rise most in two weeks on share sale for expansion","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2142527967","media":"Reuters","summary":"** Hong Kong shares of Ganfeng Lithium Co Ltd rise as much as 4.2% to HK$111.20, biggest intraday pc","content":"<p>** Hong Kong shares of Ganfeng Lithium Co Ltd rise as much as 4.2% to HK$111.20, biggest intraday pct gain since May 31</p>\n<p>** Stock of lithium compounds and lithium batteries producer is on course to snap six straight sessions of decline; the fourth-most actively traded shares by turnover</p>\n<p>** Ganfeng , <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE\">one</a> of the world's top lithium producers, said on Friday it would sell around HK$4.9 bln ($630 mln) in new shares to boost capacity and fund potential investments</p>\n<p>** Jiangxi-based co plans sale of 48.04 mln new Hong Kong shares to third party investors at HK$101.35 apiece, or 5% discount to Thursday's close</p>\n<p>** Proceeds will be used for expanding offshore lithium resources projects and investing in lithium resources including ores, brine, lithium clay</p>\n<p>** Shenzhen-listed shares gain 0.1%</p>\n<p>** Hong Kong's material index rises 1.4%</p>\n<p>** The Hang Seng China enterprises index climbs 0.1% and the benchmark index gains 0.4%</p>\n<p>** By last close, the Hong Kong-listed stock had surged 15.2% this year</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Ganfeng Lithium's HK shares rise most in two weeks on share sale for expansion</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; 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}\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nGanfeng Lithium's HK shares rise most in two weeks on share sale for expansion\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1036604489\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/443ce19704621c837795676028cec868);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Reuters </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2021-06-11 12:48</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>** Hong Kong shares of Ganfeng Lithium Co Ltd rise as much as 4.2% to HK$111.20, biggest intraday pct gain since May 31</p>\n<p>** Stock of lithium compounds and lithium batteries producer is on course to snap six straight sessions of decline; the fourth-most actively traded shares by turnover</p>\n<p>** Ganfeng , <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE\">one</a> of the world's top lithium producers, said on Friday it would sell around HK$4.9 bln ($630 mln) in new shares to boost capacity and fund potential investments</p>\n<p>** Jiangxi-based co plans sale of 48.04 mln new Hong Kong shares to third party investors at HK$101.35 apiece, or 5% discount to Thursday's close</p>\n<p>** Proceeds will be used for expanding offshore lithium resources projects and investing in lithium resources including ores, brine, lithium clay</p>\n<p>** Shenzhen-listed shares gain 0.1%</p>\n<p>** Hong Kong's material index rises 1.4%</p>\n<p>** The Hang Seng China enterprises index climbs 0.1% and the benchmark index gains 0.4%</p>\n<p>** By last close, the Hong Kong-listed stock had surged 15.2% this year</p>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"01772":"赣锋锂业"},"is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2142527967","content_text":"** Hong Kong shares of Ganfeng Lithium Co Ltd rise as much as 4.2% to HK$111.20, biggest intraday pct gain since May 31\n** Stock of lithium compounds and lithium batteries producer is on course to snap six straight sessions of decline; the fourth-most actively traded shares by turnover\n** Ganfeng , one of the world's top lithium producers, said on Friday it would sell around HK$4.9 bln ($630 mln) in new shares to boost capacity and fund potential investments\n** Jiangxi-based co plans sale of 48.04 mln new Hong Kong shares to third party investors at HK$101.35 apiece, or 5% discount to Thursday's close\n** Proceeds will be used for expanding offshore lithium resources projects and investing in lithium resources including ores, brine, lithium clay\n** Shenzhen-listed shares gain 0.1%\n** Hong Kong's material index rises 1.4%\n** The Hang Seng China enterprises index climbs 0.1% and the benchmark index gains 0.4%\n** By last close, the Hong Kong-listed stock had surged 15.2% this year","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":123,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":169151352,"gmtCreate":1623823242776,"gmtModify":1634027527644,"author":{"id":"3563269355829633","authorId":"3563269355829633","name":"Mingq","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3563269355829633","idStr":"3563269355829633"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Ok","listText":"Ok","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/169151352","repostId":"1182315358","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1182315358","pubTimestamp":1623814338,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1182315358?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-16 11:32","market":"us","language":"en","title":"It’s time to be smart like Soros in the ‘blow-off’ stage of the bull market in stocks","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1182315358","media":"MarketWatch","summary":"If you’re an investor, you need to be flexible, neither a bull nor a bear.\nIt takes brains and brawn","content":"<p>If you’re an investor, you need to be flexible, neither a bull nor a bear.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/724d1ea0bb18bddb367c79abf08c1af9\" tg-width=\"1260\" tg-height=\"841\"><span>It takes brains and brawn to be an investor these days. (Photo by Isaac Lawrence/AFP via Getty Images)</span></p>\n<p>I don’t know when what I call the Blow-Off Top of the Bubble-Blowing Bull Market will end.</p>\n<p>After 12 years being long and strong and having diamond hands without even knowing that term existed, maybe I’m wrong to turn more cautious.</p>\n<p>Maybe the economy will reopen and rejuvenate the country in such a strong manner that corporate earnings in 2022 and 2023 will make today’s prices seem like bargains.</p>\n<p>But I simply don’t think that’s the most likely outcome.</p>\n<p>And if I’m right that we’re in the throes of the Blow-Off Top of the Bubble-Blowing Bull Market, I do not want to be overly long and on the wrong side of the great unwind when it does start.</p>\n<p>I’m not calling for a near-term crash. I am saying that it’s likely going to be hard for the bulls to make as much money this year as they did last year.</p>\n<p>Trading and investing are tough. There’s always someone on the other side of every trade you make. Always think about who that is and why they are willing to take the other side of your transaction. When you buy, why are they selling it to you at that price? When you sell, who is buying it from you and what are their motivations? Remember, I’ve talked before about how&nbsp;good analysis starts with empathy.</p>\n<p><b>If I’m selling, who’s buying — and why?</b></p>\n<p>So let’s answer this question right now. Who is buying stocks and cryptos from me when I’ve trimmed and sold for the past month or so? Sure, there are banks and institutions and hedge funds and family offices investing and trading, just as always. On the other hand, remember two years ago when I got back from a hedge fund investment conference&nbsp;in Abu Dhabi and everybody was desperate for returns:</p>\n<p>Amid low interest rates and other investors’ focus on options, credit and currencies, “the lack of focus on traditional stocks and funds that invest in publicly traded stocks makes me think that there is probably more opportunity in such assets than people realize. I certainly see some very compelling long ideas in Revolutionary companies like WORK and TWTR and TSLA.”</p>\n<p>Since that post, back a year and a half ago, Slack&nbsp;went from $21 to being bought out at $45, Twitter&nbsp;went from $27 to $61, and Tesla&nbsp;went from $81 to $616. And funds that were looking everywhere but in the stock market for big gains are … well, pretty much in the markets now and long a bunch of stocks and even long a few cryptos.</p>\n<p>And now that those stocks and cryptos and most other assets have gone parabolic in the past year — coming on top of the 10-year bull market — the billion-dollar fund managers are joined by&nbsp;23-year-old TikTok influencers&nbsp;doing bitcoin&nbsp;trading astrology.</p>\n<p>Yes, for real, and she’s very popular. She’s even been right about some of bitcoin’s action in the past few months! If you’re selling cryptos and fintech stocks right now, you’re selling to her and her followers. And also to my friend’s son, who just graduated from a tiny, rural school and whose unemployed uncle gave him $500 to “buy some cryptos. And make sure you get some fintech. I don’t know the symbol, but just look it up and you’ll do fine over the long run.”&nbsp;Bearish anecdotes everywhere I look, as I wrote recently.</p>\n<p><b>Mr. Market</b></p>\n<p>The other thing to remember about who’s on the other side of your trade is always to remember that there are smart, cutthroat traders and investors who went to the best schools and have access to more research and real-time data and instant trading access to all kinds of derivatives to layer into their bets. And the only thing they do all day, every day, is figure out how to take your money in mostly legal ways. They’re not playing around. They have no sympathy for you, even if they might empathize with you to better understand your motivations to better take your money.</p>\n<p>Mr. Market is mean. He’s not nice. He can be cruel. He can force liquidations that create other liquidations. He can shut off access to capital. He can take down 200-year-old banks in a day. In one day.</p>\n<p>Sometimes the markets lead the economy and not the other way around. Ironically, when we were young, we were taught that the Great Depression started when the stock market crashed on Black Friday in 1929. But then when we get older, we were taught that it wasn’t actually the crash that created the Great Depression, rather the economy was already crashing and the stock market just didn’t realize it as it continued on its merry way toward a terrible Blow-Off Top of a nine-year Bubble-Blowing Bull Market that culminated with the Dow Jones Industrial Average&nbsp;up 400% from the 1921 lows to the 1929 highs.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3a6516337aacc614d83584ea90e174f2\" tg-width=\"1260\" tg-height=\"870\"></p>\n<p><b>Learning from Soros</b></p>\n<p>But looking back, it’s clear that both theories are equally right and wrong — the market crashed because the economy wasn’t as good as the market thought it was,<i>and</i>the economy crashed because the markets shut down access to capital for investment and growth.</p>\n<p>It was “reflexive,” to borrow a term from the great hedge fund manager&nbsp;George Soros.</p>\n<p>He wrote, and the concept is important to understand:</p>\n<p>“I continued to consider myself a failed philosopher. All this changed as a result of the financial crisis of 2008. My conceptual framework enabled me both to anticipate the crisis and to deal with it when it finally struck…</p>\n<p>“I can state the core idea in two relatively simple propositions. One is that in situations that have thinking participants, the participants’ view of the world is always partial and distorted. That is the principle of fallibility. The other is that these distorted views can influence the situation to which they relate because false views lead to inappropriate actions. That is the principle of reflexivity…</p>\n<p>“Recognizing reflexivity has been sacrificed to the vain pursuit of certainty in human affairs, most notably in economics, and yet, uncertainty is the key feature of human affairs. Economic theory is built on the concept of equilibrium, and that concept is in direct contradiction with the concept of reflexivity…</p>\n<p>“A positive feedback process is self-reinforcing. It cannot go on forever because eventually the participants’ views would become so far removed from objective reality that the participants would have to recognize them as unrealistic. Nor can the iterative process occur without any change in the actual state of affairs, because it is in the nature of positive feedback that it reinforces whatever tendency prevails in the real world. Instead of equilibrium, we are faced with a dynamic disequilibrium or what may be described as far-from-equilibrium conditions. Usually in far-from-equilibrium situations the divergence between perceptions and reality leads to a climax which sets in motion a positive feedback process in the opposite direction. Such initially self-reinforcing but eventually self-defeating boom-bust processes or bubbles are characteristic of financial markets, but they can also be found in other spheres. There, I call them fertile fallacies—interpretations of reality that are distorted, yet produce results which reinforce the distortion.”</p>\n<p>Stay flexible</p>\n<p>Far-from-equilibrium conditions was what we had in 2010-2013 when we loaded up on Revolutionary stocks and started buying cryptos like bitcoin. Far-from-equilibrium conditions might be what we have in front of us right now when I suggest getting cautious instead.</p>\n<p>We don’t want to be permabulls. (You for sure don’t want to be a permabear!) We have to be flexible. We have to let our analysis and risk/reward scenarios dictate how much risk we’re taking and when. We have to pay attention to the cycles, the self-reinforcing cycles that drive economies and markets and valuations and earnings and societal interactions and bailouts and financial crises and bubbles and busts and, heaven forbid, just simple stagnation.</p>\n<p>It’s as if everybody forgets that markets can bubble and crash and stagnate. They forget that markets can grind for years on end without making new highs, or without even making higher highs. Do you not remember telling your money manager sometime in 2010-2012 that “If I’d just handled the Great Financial Crisis (and/or the Dot-Com Crash) a little better, I’d be in better shape.” I used to hear people say that to me all the time. I haven’t heard anybody say that lately. Everybody’s having fun in this market … at least for now.</p>\n<p>Most traders will tell you that they are “just trading the market that is in front of them.” Well, I don’t know when the bubble will pop, but I do know that I don’t want to be on the wrong side of this market when it does. And I do know that we won’t know the bubble has really popped until the self-reinforcing reflexive feedback loop has made it painful for the vast majority of people who are right now feeling wealthy, feeling secure, feeling like they’ve got this trading and investing thing all figured out.</p>\n<p>We are all fallible. Be careful while it’s fun. Be bold when it’s painful. That’s how I’ve done it for the last 25 years. We were boldly buying these assets when it was painful for others. I’m careful right now because everybody else is having fun.</p>\n<p>I spend a lot of time looking for new ideas and I won’t let my overall market outlook deter me from buying a new name or two. But I want to remain overall cautious and less aggressive than I have been for most of the last decade.</p>\n<p>As a matter of fact,&nbsp;I might have at least a couple Trade Alerts that I’ll be sending out this week, one long and one short idea. Being flexible, see?</p>","source":"lsy1603348471595","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>It’s time to be smart like Soros in the ‘blow-off’ stage of the bull market in stocks</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nIt’s time to be smart like Soros in the ‘blow-off’ stage of the bull market in stocks\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-06-16 11:32 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.marketwatch.com/story/its-time-to-be-smart-like-soros-in-the-blow-off-stage-of-the-bull-market-in-stocks-11623788897?siteid=yhoof2><strong>MarketWatch</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>If you’re an investor, you need to be flexible, neither a bull nor a bear.\nIt takes brains and brawn to be an investor these days. (Photo by Isaac Lawrence/AFP via Getty Images)\nI don’t know when what...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/its-time-to-be-smart-like-soros-in-the-blow-off-stage-of-the-bull-market-in-stocks-11623788897?siteid=yhoof2\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/its-time-to-be-smart-like-soros-in-the-blow-off-stage-of-the-bull-market-in-stocks-11623788897?siteid=yhoof2","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1182315358","content_text":"If you’re an investor, you need to be flexible, neither a bull nor a bear.\nIt takes brains and brawn to be an investor these days. (Photo by Isaac Lawrence/AFP via Getty Images)\nI don’t know when what I call the Blow-Off Top of the Bubble-Blowing Bull Market will end.\nAfter 12 years being long and strong and having diamond hands without even knowing that term existed, maybe I’m wrong to turn more cautious.\nMaybe the economy will reopen and rejuvenate the country in such a strong manner that corporate earnings in 2022 and 2023 will make today’s prices seem like bargains.\nBut I simply don’t think that’s the most likely outcome.\nAnd if I’m right that we’re in the throes of the Blow-Off Top of the Bubble-Blowing Bull Market, I do not want to be overly long and on the wrong side of the great unwind when it does start.\nI’m not calling for a near-term crash. I am saying that it’s likely going to be hard for the bulls to make as much money this year as they did last year.\nTrading and investing are tough. There’s always someone on the other side of every trade you make. Always think about who that is and why they are willing to take the other side of your transaction. When you buy, why are they selling it to you at that price? When you sell, who is buying it from you and what are their motivations? Remember, I’ve talked before about how good analysis starts with empathy.\nIf I’m selling, who’s buying — and why?\nSo let’s answer this question right now. Who is buying stocks and cryptos from me when I’ve trimmed and sold for the past month or so? Sure, there are banks and institutions and hedge funds and family offices investing and trading, just as always. On the other hand, remember two years ago when I got back from a hedge fund investment conference in Abu Dhabi and everybody was desperate for returns:\nAmid low interest rates and other investors’ focus on options, credit and currencies, “the lack of focus on traditional stocks and funds that invest in publicly traded stocks makes me think that there is probably more opportunity in such assets than people realize. I certainly see some very compelling long ideas in Revolutionary companies like WORK and TWTR and TSLA.”\nSince that post, back a year and a half ago, Slack went from $21 to being bought out at $45, Twitter went from $27 to $61, and Tesla went from $81 to $616. And funds that were looking everywhere but in the stock market for big gains are … well, pretty much in the markets now and long a bunch of stocks and even long a few cryptos.\nAnd now that those stocks and cryptos and most other assets have gone parabolic in the past year — coming on top of the 10-year bull market — the billion-dollar fund managers are joined by 23-year-old TikTok influencers doing bitcoin trading astrology.\nYes, for real, and she’s very popular. She’s even been right about some of bitcoin’s action in the past few months! If you’re selling cryptos and fintech stocks right now, you’re selling to her and her followers. And also to my friend’s son, who just graduated from a tiny, rural school and whose unemployed uncle gave him $500 to “buy some cryptos. And make sure you get some fintech. I don’t know the symbol, but just look it up and you’ll do fine over the long run.” Bearish anecdotes everywhere I look, as I wrote recently.\nMr. Market\nThe other thing to remember about who’s on the other side of your trade is always to remember that there are smart, cutthroat traders and investors who went to the best schools and have access to more research and real-time data and instant trading access to all kinds of derivatives to layer into their bets. And the only thing they do all day, every day, is figure out how to take your money in mostly legal ways. They’re not playing around. They have no sympathy for you, even if they might empathize with you to better understand your motivations to better take your money.\nMr. Market is mean. He’s not nice. He can be cruel. He can force liquidations that create other liquidations. He can shut off access to capital. He can take down 200-year-old banks in a day. In one day.\nSometimes the markets lead the economy and not the other way around. Ironically, when we were young, we were taught that the Great Depression started when the stock market crashed on Black Friday in 1929. But then when we get older, we were taught that it wasn’t actually the crash that created the Great Depression, rather the economy was already crashing and the stock market just didn’t realize it as it continued on its merry way toward a terrible Blow-Off Top of a nine-year Bubble-Blowing Bull Market that culminated with the Dow Jones Industrial Average up 400% from the 1921 lows to the 1929 highs.\n\nLearning from Soros\nBut looking back, it’s clear that both theories are equally right and wrong — the market crashed because the economy wasn’t as good as the market thought it was,andthe economy crashed because the markets shut down access to capital for investment and growth.\nIt was “reflexive,” to borrow a term from the great hedge fund manager George Soros.\nHe wrote, and the concept is important to understand:\n“I continued to consider myself a failed philosopher. All this changed as a result of the financial crisis of 2008. My conceptual framework enabled me both to anticipate the crisis and to deal with it when it finally struck…\n“I can state the core idea in two relatively simple propositions. One is that in situations that have thinking participants, the participants’ view of the world is always partial and distorted. That is the principle of fallibility. The other is that these distorted views can influence the situation to which they relate because false views lead to inappropriate actions. That is the principle of reflexivity…\n“Recognizing reflexivity has been sacrificed to the vain pursuit of certainty in human affairs, most notably in economics, and yet, uncertainty is the key feature of human affairs. Economic theory is built on the concept of equilibrium, and that concept is in direct contradiction with the concept of reflexivity…\n“A positive feedback process is self-reinforcing. It cannot go on forever because eventually the participants’ views would become so far removed from objective reality that the participants would have to recognize them as unrealistic. Nor can the iterative process occur without any change in the actual state of affairs, because it is in the nature of positive feedback that it reinforces whatever tendency prevails in the real world. Instead of equilibrium, we are faced with a dynamic disequilibrium or what may be described as far-from-equilibrium conditions. Usually in far-from-equilibrium situations the divergence between perceptions and reality leads to a climax which sets in motion a positive feedback process in the opposite direction. Such initially self-reinforcing but eventually self-defeating boom-bust processes or bubbles are characteristic of financial markets, but they can also be found in other spheres. There, I call them fertile fallacies—interpretations of reality that are distorted, yet produce results which reinforce the distortion.”\nStay flexible\nFar-from-equilibrium conditions was what we had in 2010-2013 when we loaded up on Revolutionary stocks and started buying cryptos like bitcoin. Far-from-equilibrium conditions might be what we have in front of us right now when I suggest getting cautious instead.\nWe don’t want to be permabulls. (You for sure don’t want to be a permabear!) We have to be flexible. We have to let our analysis and risk/reward scenarios dictate how much risk we’re taking and when. We have to pay attention to the cycles, the self-reinforcing cycles that drive economies and markets and valuations and earnings and societal interactions and bailouts and financial crises and bubbles and busts and, heaven forbid, just simple stagnation.\nIt’s as if everybody forgets that markets can bubble and crash and stagnate. They forget that markets can grind for years on end without making new highs, or without even making higher highs. Do you not remember telling your money manager sometime in 2010-2012 that “If I’d just handled the Great Financial Crisis (and/or the Dot-Com Crash) a little better, I’d be in better shape.” I used to hear people say that to me all the time. I haven’t heard anybody say that lately. Everybody’s having fun in this market … at least for now.\nMost traders will tell you that they are “just trading the market that is in front of them.” Well, I don’t know when the bubble will pop, but I do know that I don’t want to be on the wrong side of this market when it does. And I do know that we won’t know the bubble has really popped until the self-reinforcing reflexive feedback loop has made it painful for the vast majority of people who are right now feeling wealthy, feeling secure, feeling like they’ve got this trading and investing thing all figured out.\nWe are all fallible. Be careful while it’s fun. Be bold when it’s painful. That’s how I’ve done it for the last 25 years. We were boldly buying these assets when it was painful for others. I’m careful right now because everybody else is having fun.\nI spend a lot of time looking for new ideas and I won’t let my overall market outlook deter me from buying a new name or two. But I want to remain overall cautious and less aggressive than I have been for most of the last decade.\nAs a matter of fact, I might have at least a couple Trade Alerts that I’ll be sending out this week, one long and one short idea. Being flexible, see?","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":164,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":166146810,"gmtCreate":1623998884030,"gmtModify":1634024340420,"author":{"id":"3563269355829633","authorId":"3563269355829633","name":"Mingq","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3563269355829633","idStr":"3563269355829633"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Hi","listText":"Hi","text":"Hi","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/166146810","repostId":"1175693382","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1175693382","pubTimestamp":1623978463,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1175693382?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-18 09:07","market":"hk","language":"en","title":"Alibaba Stock: The Bottoming Process Looks To Be Forming Already","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1175693382","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Alibaba is probably the most undervalued growth stock right now.The company’s multiple growth drivers within a rapidly expanding market made its valuations look even more baffling.The short term technical picture may be turning bullish with a potential double bottom price action signal.When we take things into clearer perspective by comparing China’s growth rate and size of its market to that of the U.S. e-commerce market, we could see the huge differences in their sizes and growth rates as the ","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p>\n<ul>\n <li>Alibaba is probably the most undervalued growth stock right now.</li>\n <li>The company’s multiple growth drivers within a rapidly expanding market made its valuations look even more baffling.</li>\n <li>The short term technical picture may be turning bullish with a potential double bottom price action signal.</li>\n <li>We discuss the company’s multiple growth drivers and let investors judge for themselves.</li>\n</ul>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/05e63c77d4f3f3dc3d618e43044638bb\" tg-width=\"768\" tg-height=\"512\"><span>Yongyuan Dai/iStock Unreleased via Getty Images</span></p>\n<p><b>The Technical Thesis</b></p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7febf6ed056b0e3bc038321cdaad9b1c\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"782\"><span>Source: TradingView</span></p>\n<p>Alibaba’s&nbsp;stock price has endured a terrible 8 months ever since its Ant Financial IPO was pulled in early Nov 20, with the stock languishing in the doldrums 34% off its high. When considering the health of its long term uptrend, it’s clear that BABA has a relatively strong uptrend bias and has generally been well supported along its key 50W MA. The only other time in the last 4 years that it lost its key 50W MA support level was during the 2018 bear market where BABA dropped about 40%, but was still well supported above the important 200W MA, which we usually consider as the “last line of defense”. Right now BABA is somewhat facing a similar situation again: down 34%, lost the 50W MA, but looks to be well supported above the 200W MA. In addition to that, one interesting observation in price action analysis may lead price action traders/investors to be especially bullish: a potential double bottom formation. BABA's price is seemingly going through a double bottom like it did during the 2018 bear market before it rallied strongly thereafter. As a result, BABA’s current level may offer a possible technical buy entry point now.</p>\n<p><b>BABA's Fundamental Thesis: Rapidly Expanding Growth Drivers</b></p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/eba49f5881708929949c30628eedc5d4\" tg-width=\"934\" tg-height=\"578\"><span>Annual GMV. Data source: Company filings</span></p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a4d6c4ed3e2402f5af52b2dea8bab411\" tg-width=\"836\" tg-height=\"517\"><span>Annual e-commerce revenue. Data source: Company filings</span></p>\n<p>BABA’s GMV grew from 1.68T yuan to 7.49T yuan in just a matter of 7 years, which represented a CAGR of 23.8%, a truly amazing growth rate. We also saw its GMV growth being converted into revenue growth as its China commerce revenue grew from 7.67B yuan to 473.68B yuan, at a CAGR of 51% over the last 10 years. While its international footprint remains considerably smaller, it still grew at a CAGR of 30.42% over the last 10 years, which was by no means slow.</p>\n<p>Even though China’s e-commerce market is expected to grow considerably slower at a CAGR of 12.4% over the next three years, from 13.8T yuan, equivalent to $2.16T in 2021 to 19.6T yuan,equivalent to $3.06T by 2024, the massive size of the market still offers tremendous upside potential for BABA and its closest competitors to grow into.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ffe2dee43f267e1d1399c68e3ca60f36\" tg-width=\"600\" tg-height=\"371\"><span>E-commerce revenue in the U.S. Data source: Statista</span></p>\n<p>When we take things into clearer perspective by comparing China’s growth rate and size of its market to that of the U.S. e-commerce market, we could see the huge differences in their sizes and growth rates as the U.S. e-commerce market is only expected to grow at a CAGR of 4.67% from 2021 to 2025, which is significantly slower than China’s 12.4%. In addition, the U.S. market is also expected to reach about $563B in total revenue, which is 18% of what the China market is expected to be worth by then.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0d5a8d0d8a6a2dcdf667a6f33c6c9771\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"702\"><span>Peers EBIT Margin and Projected EBIT Margin. Data source: S&amp;P Capital IQ</span></p>\n<p>Even though Alibaba has been facing increased competitive pressures from its fast growing key competitors: JD.com(NASDAQ:JD)and Pinduoduo(NASDAQ:PDD), BABA has already been operating a much more profitable business (both EBIT and FCF), and is expected to continue delivering strong profitability moving forward, which should give the company tremendous flexibility to compete head on with JD and PDD in its quest to extend its leadership. Investors may observe that BABA’s EBIT margin was affected by the one-off administrative penalty of $2,782M that was reflected in its SG&amp;A, and therefore skewed its EBIT margin to the downside.</p>\n<p>One important move was the company’s decision to further its investment in the Community Marketplace, which is PDD’s main e-commerce strategy that saw PDD gain a total of&nbsp;823M AAC&nbsp;in its latest quarter as compared to BABA’s 891M AAC. PDD’s AAC growth is truly phenomenal considering it had only&nbsp;100M AAC in Q2’C17&nbsp;as compared to BABA’s 466M AAC in the same period.</p>\n<p>Therefore, the momentum of growth has surely swung over to the Community Marketplace segment and BABA would need to pull out its big guns (which it has) to compete for dominance with PDD and JD.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3b83b69b08b1f4b11a26393c8e6eead5\" tg-width=\"600\" tg-height=\"371\"><span>Market size of community group buying in China. Data source: iiMedia Research</span></p>\n<p>Even though the expected total market size of 102B yuan by 2022 represented only about 21.5% of BABA’s FY 21 China commerce revenue, the expected rapid CAGR of 44.22% over 3 years from 2019 to 2022 cannot be missed by BABA. Although the market is still relatively small, BABA cannot allow the current leader in this market: PDD to so easily dominate and gobble up the early high growth rates at the ignorance of everyone else. Certainly BABA must compete and fight for its place in this segment and strive for early leadership to prevent PDD from extending its lead.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b97b2b4a8a182dc9846d8fb7e4039877\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"770\"><span>PDD profitability metrics &amp; revenue growth forecast. Data source: S&amp;P Capital IQ</span></p>\n<p>We could observe from the above chart that PDD is expected to continue growing its revenue rapidly over the next few years, even though they are expected to normalize subsequently. More importantly, PDD is also expected to increasingly improve its EBIT and FCF profitability moving forward. This shows that the Community Marketplace segment is an highly important growth driver that BABA must use its strength to exploit in order to deny PDD’s claim to undisputed leadership so early on in the game.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3aadc32155b4108426a1a982e3b5b1c2\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"360\"><span>China public cloud spending. Source:China Internet Watch; Canalys</span></p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1c1538b9f7bdc8d6d35a72d9acf8ecbc\" tg-width=\"600\" tg-height=\"371\"><span>Size of China public cloud market. Data source: CAICT; Sina.com.cn</span></p>\n<p>BABA has a 40% share in China’s public cloud market, way ahead of its key competitors. However, it’s important to note that despite this leadership, BABA is still in heavy investment mode to continue growing its market share as China’s public cloud market is expected to grow from 26.48B yuan in 2017 to 230.74B yuan by 2023, which would represent a CAGR of 43.4%, an incredibly stellar growth rate. This is especially clear when we compare China’s growth rate to the worldwide growth rate (see below) as public cloud spending worldwide is expected to grow from $145B in 2017 to $397B by 2022, that would represent a CAGR of 22.3%.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/06198c569504bc303c34563041dfb294\" tg-width=\"600\" tg-height=\"371\"><span>Worldwide public cloud spending. Data source: Gartner</span></p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8482037f60575f964053ab732496bee3\" tg-width=\"1176\" tg-height=\"700\"><span>Worldwide public cloud market share. Source:CnTechPost; Gartner</span></p>\n<p>Therefore, I don’t find it surprising that Ali Cloud has continued to extend its lead over Alphabet’s(NASDAQ:GOOGL)(NASDAQ:GOOG)GCP with a market share of 9.5% in 2020. While AMZN remains the clear leader in the market, its market share has been coming down considerably as public cloud spending continues to expand, indicating that there is a huge potential for growth for multiple players to exist. With BABA’s leadership in the rapidly expanding Chinese market, I’m increasingly bullish on the future profit and FCF contribution from this segment to BABA’s performance over time. Although BABA’s cloud segment has not been EBIT profitable yet (FY 21 EBIT margin: -15%, FY 20 EBIT margin: -17.5%), it’s also useful to note that GCP has also not been profitable for Alphabet as well (FY 20 EBIT margin: -42.9%, FY 19 EBIT margin: -52%). Therefore, we need to give BABA some time to scale up its cloud services in APAC and in China where it is expected to have stronger leadership to allow it to grow faster and investors should expect this to be a highly profitable segment over time.</p>\n<p><b>BABA's Valuations Look Highly Compelling</b></p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/62a087c4b3ef7efc2c5dde813e3b959d\" tg-width=\"1000\" tg-height=\"600\"><span>NTM TEV / EBIT 3Y range.</span></p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b2605c0e5ad364a7a43929fef204595c\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"687\"><span>EV / Fwd EBIT and EV / Fwd Rev trend. Data source: S&amp;P Capital IQ</span></p>\n<p>When we consider BABA's TEV / EBIT historical range, where the 3Y mean read 33.54x, BABA’s EV / Fwd EBIT trend certainly imply a hugely undervalued stock as BABA is still expected to grow its revenue and operating profits rapidly. However, as we wanted to obtain greater clarity over how its counterparts are also valued, we thought it would be useful if we value BABA’s EBIT over a set of benchmark companies that is presented below.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d27873e676dfb23c98d4a69aa5861e02\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"1117\"><span>Peers EV / EBIT Valuations. Data source: S&amp;P Capital IQ</span></p>\n<p>By using a blend of historical and forward EBIT, we could see that BABA’s EV / EBIT really looks undervalued when compared to the median value of the set of observed values from the benchmark companies. We derived a fair value range for BABA of $294.98 at the midpoint of the range, that represented a potential upside of 40.5% based on the current stock price of $210.</p>\n<p><b>Risks to Assumptions</b></p>\n<p>Now, it’s obviously baffling to watch how Mr. Market has decided to discount BABA to such an extent as if the company has lost all its key sources of growth, when in fact there is still so much potential upside coming from its commerce segment, the new marketplace initiatives and its growing Ali Cloud segment, among others. The main realistic reason that we identified for the stock's underperformance would simply be regulatory risk. We think investors should acknowledge that this risk is very real and at times huge Chinese companies have found themselves to be subjected to extra scrutiny (which is nothing new in fact) by the Chinese government. What’s critical here is that the Chinese government seemingly has significant clout over the behavior and actions of their tech behemoths that at times may be largely unpredictable. The market certainly hates unpredictability and therefore they may have significantly discounted BABA as a result of that. If investors are not able to handle uncertainty with regard to potentially unpredictable regulatory actions and their aftermath, then BABA may not be appropriate for you. However, if you believe that this is just a blip in BABA’s long journey, then you would surely find BABA's valuations extremely attractive right now, coupled with a long term mindset.</p>\n<p><b>Wrapping It All Up</b></p>\n<p>Alibaba has continued to deliver solid results that demonstrated the strong capability of the company to execute well. As the company continues to operate within a market with so many growth drivers that are expected to drive the company’s future growth, investors should find the current valuations highly attractive.</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Alibaba Stock: The Bottoming Process Looks To Be Forming Already</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nAlibaba Stock: The Bottoming Process Looks To Be Forming Already\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-06-18 09:07 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4435297-alibaba-stock-bottoming-process-forming-buy-now><strong>seekingalpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Summary\n\nAlibaba is probably the most undervalued growth stock right now.\nThe company’s multiple growth drivers within a rapidly expanding market made its valuations look even more baffling.\nThe short...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4435297-alibaba-stock-bottoming-process-forming-buy-now\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"09988":"阿里巴巴-W","BABA":"阿里巴巴"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4435297-alibaba-stock-bottoming-process-forming-buy-now","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1175693382","content_text":"Summary\n\nAlibaba is probably the most undervalued growth stock right now.\nThe company’s multiple growth drivers within a rapidly expanding market made its valuations look even more baffling.\nThe short term technical picture may be turning bullish with a potential double bottom price action signal.\nWe discuss the company’s multiple growth drivers and let investors judge for themselves.\n\nYongyuan Dai/iStock Unreleased via Getty Images\nThe Technical Thesis\nSource: TradingView\nAlibaba’s stock price has endured a terrible 8 months ever since its Ant Financial IPO was pulled in early Nov 20, with the stock languishing in the doldrums 34% off its high. When considering the health of its long term uptrend, it’s clear that BABA has a relatively strong uptrend bias and has generally been well supported along its key 50W MA. The only other time in the last 4 years that it lost its key 50W MA support level was during the 2018 bear market where BABA dropped about 40%, but was still well supported above the important 200W MA, which we usually consider as the “last line of defense”. Right now BABA is somewhat facing a similar situation again: down 34%, lost the 50W MA, but looks to be well supported above the 200W MA. In addition to that, one interesting observation in price action analysis may lead price action traders/investors to be especially bullish: a potential double bottom formation. BABA's price is seemingly going through a double bottom like it did during the 2018 bear market before it rallied strongly thereafter. As a result, BABA’s current level may offer a possible technical buy entry point now.\nBABA's Fundamental Thesis: Rapidly Expanding Growth Drivers\nAnnual GMV. Data source: Company filings\nAnnual e-commerce revenue. Data source: Company filings\nBABA’s GMV grew from 1.68T yuan to 7.49T yuan in just a matter of 7 years, which represented a CAGR of 23.8%, a truly amazing growth rate. We also saw its GMV growth being converted into revenue growth as its China commerce revenue grew from 7.67B yuan to 473.68B yuan, at a CAGR of 51% over the last 10 years. While its international footprint remains considerably smaller, it still grew at a CAGR of 30.42% over the last 10 years, which was by no means slow.\nEven though China’s e-commerce market is expected to grow considerably slower at a CAGR of 12.4% over the next three years, from 13.8T yuan, equivalent to $2.16T in 2021 to 19.6T yuan,equivalent to $3.06T by 2024, the massive size of the market still offers tremendous upside potential for BABA and its closest competitors to grow into.\nE-commerce revenue in the U.S. Data source: Statista\nWhen we take things into clearer perspective by comparing China’s growth rate and size of its market to that of the U.S. e-commerce market, we could see the huge differences in their sizes and growth rates as the U.S. e-commerce market is only expected to grow at a CAGR of 4.67% from 2021 to 2025, which is significantly slower than China’s 12.4%. In addition, the U.S. market is also expected to reach about $563B in total revenue, which is 18% of what the China market is expected to be worth by then.\nPeers EBIT Margin and Projected EBIT Margin. Data source: S&P Capital IQ\nEven though Alibaba has been facing increased competitive pressures from its fast growing key competitors: JD.com(NASDAQ:JD)and Pinduoduo(NASDAQ:PDD), BABA has already been operating a much more profitable business (both EBIT and FCF), and is expected to continue delivering strong profitability moving forward, which should give the company tremendous flexibility to compete head on with JD and PDD in its quest to extend its leadership. Investors may observe that BABA’s EBIT margin was affected by the one-off administrative penalty of $2,782M that was reflected in its SG&A, and therefore skewed its EBIT margin to the downside.\nOne important move was the company’s decision to further its investment in the Community Marketplace, which is PDD’s main e-commerce strategy that saw PDD gain a total of 823M AAC in its latest quarter as compared to BABA’s 891M AAC. PDD’s AAC growth is truly phenomenal considering it had only 100M AAC in Q2’C17 as compared to BABA’s 466M AAC in the same period.\nTherefore, the momentum of growth has surely swung over to the Community Marketplace segment and BABA would need to pull out its big guns (which it has) to compete for dominance with PDD and JD.\nMarket size of community group buying in China. Data source: iiMedia Research\nEven though the expected total market size of 102B yuan by 2022 represented only about 21.5% of BABA’s FY 21 China commerce revenue, the expected rapid CAGR of 44.22% over 3 years from 2019 to 2022 cannot be missed by BABA. Although the market is still relatively small, BABA cannot allow the current leader in this market: PDD to so easily dominate and gobble up the early high growth rates at the ignorance of everyone else. Certainly BABA must compete and fight for its place in this segment and strive for early leadership to prevent PDD from extending its lead.\nPDD profitability metrics & revenue growth forecast. Data source: S&P Capital IQ\nWe could observe from the above chart that PDD is expected to continue growing its revenue rapidly over the next few years, even though they are expected to normalize subsequently. More importantly, PDD is also expected to increasingly improve its EBIT and FCF profitability moving forward. This shows that the Community Marketplace segment is an highly important growth driver that BABA must use its strength to exploit in order to deny PDD’s claim to undisputed leadership so early on in the game.\nChina public cloud spending. Source:China Internet Watch; Canalys\nSize of China public cloud market. Data source: CAICT; Sina.com.cn\nBABA has a 40% share in China’s public cloud market, way ahead of its key competitors. However, it’s important to note that despite this leadership, BABA is still in heavy investment mode to continue growing its market share as China’s public cloud market is expected to grow from 26.48B yuan in 2017 to 230.74B yuan by 2023, which would represent a CAGR of 43.4%, an incredibly stellar growth rate. This is especially clear when we compare China’s growth rate to the worldwide growth rate (see below) as public cloud spending worldwide is expected to grow from $145B in 2017 to $397B by 2022, that would represent a CAGR of 22.3%.\nWorldwide public cloud spending. Data source: Gartner\nWorldwide public cloud market share. Source:CnTechPost; Gartner\nTherefore, I don’t find it surprising that Ali Cloud has continued to extend its lead over Alphabet’s(NASDAQ:GOOGL)(NASDAQ:GOOG)GCP with a market share of 9.5% in 2020. While AMZN remains the clear leader in the market, its market share has been coming down considerably as public cloud spending continues to expand, indicating that there is a huge potential for growth for multiple players to exist. With BABA’s leadership in the rapidly expanding Chinese market, I’m increasingly bullish on the future profit and FCF contribution from this segment to BABA’s performance over time. Although BABA’s cloud segment has not been EBIT profitable yet (FY 21 EBIT margin: -15%, FY 20 EBIT margin: -17.5%), it’s also useful to note that GCP has also not been profitable for Alphabet as well (FY 20 EBIT margin: -42.9%, FY 19 EBIT margin: -52%). Therefore, we need to give BABA some time to scale up its cloud services in APAC and in China where it is expected to have stronger leadership to allow it to grow faster and investors should expect this to be a highly profitable segment over time.\nBABA's Valuations Look Highly Compelling\nNTM TEV / EBIT 3Y range.\nEV / Fwd EBIT and EV / Fwd Rev trend. Data source: S&P Capital IQ\nWhen we consider BABA's TEV / EBIT historical range, where the 3Y mean read 33.54x, BABA’s EV / Fwd EBIT trend certainly imply a hugely undervalued stock as BABA is still expected to grow its revenue and operating profits rapidly. However, as we wanted to obtain greater clarity over how its counterparts are also valued, we thought it would be useful if we value BABA’s EBIT over a set of benchmark companies that is presented below.\nPeers EV / EBIT Valuations. Data source: S&P Capital IQ\nBy using a blend of historical and forward EBIT, we could see that BABA’s EV / EBIT really looks undervalued when compared to the median value of the set of observed values from the benchmark companies. We derived a fair value range for BABA of $294.98 at the midpoint of the range, that represented a potential upside of 40.5% based on the current stock price of $210.\nRisks to Assumptions\nNow, it’s obviously baffling to watch how Mr. Market has decided to discount BABA to such an extent as if the company has lost all its key sources of growth, when in fact there is still so much potential upside coming from its commerce segment, the new marketplace initiatives and its growing Ali Cloud segment, among others. The main realistic reason that we identified for the stock's underperformance would simply be regulatory risk. We think investors should acknowledge that this risk is very real and at times huge Chinese companies have found themselves to be subjected to extra scrutiny (which is nothing new in fact) by the Chinese government. What’s critical here is that the Chinese government seemingly has significant clout over the behavior and actions of their tech behemoths that at times may be largely unpredictable. The market certainly hates unpredictability and therefore they may have significantly discounted BABA as a result of that. If investors are not able to handle uncertainty with regard to potentially unpredictable regulatory actions and their aftermath, then BABA may not be appropriate for you. However, if you believe that this is just a blip in BABA’s long journey, then you would surely find BABA's valuations extremely attractive right now, coupled with a long term mindset.\nWrapping It All Up\nAlibaba has continued to deliver solid results that demonstrated the strong capability of the company to execute well. As the company continues to operate within a market with so many growth drivers that are expected to drive the company’s future growth, investors should find the current valuations highly attractive.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":152,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":187885676,"gmtCreate":1623749337795,"gmtModify":1634029128436,"author":{"id":"3563269355829633","authorId":"3563269355829633","name":"Mingq","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3563269355829633","idStr":"3563269355829633"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Hi","listText":"Hi","text":"Hi","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/187885676","repostId":"2143581857","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2143581857","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Reuters.com brings you the latest news from around the world, covering breaking news in markets, business, politics, entertainment and technology","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Reuters","id":"1036604489","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/443ce19704621c837795676028cec868"},"pubTimestamp":1623746987,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2143581857?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-15 16:49","market":"sh","language":"en","title":"Shares in record-setting spree as Fed meeting looms","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2143581857","media":"Reuters","summary":"By Thyagaraju Adinarayan and Alun John\nLONDON/HONG KONG, June 15 (Reuters) - World stocks hit yet an","content":"<p>By Thyagaraju Adinarayan and Alun John</p>\n<p>LONDON/HONG KONG, June 15 (Reuters) - World stocks hit yet another record high on Tuesday, with European stocks poised for their longest winning streak since 2019 as investors bet likely \"transitory\" inflation pressures will stay the U.S. Federal Reserve's hand from signalling a shift in policy settings.</p>\n<p>A majority of investors surveyed by BofA said inflation was transitory, a marked change from March, when worries about more sustained price rises had sent U.S. 10-year Treasury yields surging to nearly 1.8%. With the yield now pinned below 1.5%, BofA expects the Fed to signal a dial back in stimulus by September.</p>\n<p>Abating worries about inflation helped U.S. and European shares scale new highs, with the pan-regional STOXX 600 rising 0.4%, its eighth straight day of gains. U.S. stock futures were up 0.1%.</p>\n<p>\"Several factors that have pushed up inflation are likely to fade in the coming months,\" said Mark Haefele, chief investment officer at UBS Global Wealth.</p>\n<p>\"We don’t expect inflation to prompt a premature tightening of monetary policy or to derail the equity rally,\" Haefele added.</p>\n<p>The two-day Fed meeting starts on Tuesday, with a final statement published after the meeting closes on Wednesday.</p>\n<p>Traders around the world are looking for any hints about whether and when the Fed plans to taper its bond buying programme as the U.S. economy bounces back from the pandemic fallout.</p>\n<p>Nearly 60% of economists in a Reuters poll expect a taper announcement will come in the next quarter, despite a patchy recovery in the job market.</p>\n<p>\"Whilst no immediate changes in monetary policy are anticipated, an increase in the share of FOMC members who think rates will need to increase in 2023 is expected,\" analysts at ANZ wrote in a note to clients.</p>\n<p>\"If three more members pencil in rate rises for 2023, that would tip the majority in favour of moving rates relatively soon,\" they said.</p>\n<p>In Asia, the MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan trading flat. Japan's Nikkei</p>\n<p>rose 1% and the Australian benchmark traded up 0.93%, but Chinese blue chips fell 1.1%.</p>\n<p>China's markets were closed on Monday for a holiday, meaning this was their first response to a joint statement by the Group of Seven leaders that had scolded Beijing over a range of issues which China called a gross interference in the country's internal affairs.</p>\n<p><b>STRONG DOLLAR</b></p>\n<p>In currency markets, the dollar held onto its gains against major currencies. The dollar index was at 90.414, not far off the top of its recent range.</p>\n<p>Retail sales and industrial production data due later on Tuesday could spark some modest dollar volatility, wrote analysts at CBA in a research note.</p>\n<p>In the face of the strong dollar, spot gold was down slightly at $1,862.21 per ounce.</p>\n<p>Benchmark 10-year yields were 1.4838%, little changed from Monday, when they rebounded from Friday's three-month low.</p>\n<p>As for commodities, U.S. crude ticked up 0.38% to $71.15 a barrel. Brent crude rose to $73.15 per barrel as talks dragged on over the United States rejoining a nuclear agreement with Tehran suggesting any surge in supply from Iran is some time away.</p>\n<p>Even bitcoin was fairly quiet, fluctuating a little above $40,000. It rose on Sunday and Monday after Elon Musk said Tesla could resume accepting payment in the world's largest cryptocurrency at some point in the future.</p>\n<p>(Reporting by Thyagaraju Adinarayan in London and Alun John in Hong Kong; Editing by Ana Nicolaci da Costa, Lincoln Feast and Kim Coghill)</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Shares in record-setting spree as Fed meeting looms</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nShares in record-setting spree as Fed meeting looms\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1036604489\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/443ce19704621c837795676028cec868);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Reuters </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2021-06-15 16:49</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>By Thyagaraju Adinarayan and Alun John</p>\n<p>LONDON/HONG KONG, June 15 (Reuters) - World stocks hit yet another record high on Tuesday, with European stocks poised for their longest winning streak since 2019 as investors bet likely \"transitory\" inflation pressures will stay the U.S. Federal Reserve's hand from signalling a shift in policy settings.</p>\n<p>A majority of investors surveyed by BofA said inflation was transitory, a marked change from March, when worries about more sustained price rises had sent U.S. 10-year Treasury yields surging to nearly 1.8%. With the yield now pinned below 1.5%, BofA expects the Fed to signal a dial back in stimulus by September.</p>\n<p>Abating worries about inflation helped U.S. and European shares scale new highs, with the pan-regional STOXX 600 rising 0.4%, its eighth straight day of gains. U.S. stock futures were up 0.1%.</p>\n<p>\"Several factors that have pushed up inflation are likely to fade in the coming months,\" said Mark Haefele, chief investment officer at UBS Global Wealth.</p>\n<p>\"We don’t expect inflation to prompt a premature tightening of monetary policy or to derail the equity rally,\" Haefele added.</p>\n<p>The two-day Fed meeting starts on Tuesday, with a final statement published after the meeting closes on Wednesday.</p>\n<p>Traders around the world are looking for any hints about whether and when the Fed plans to taper its bond buying programme as the U.S. economy bounces back from the pandemic fallout.</p>\n<p>Nearly 60% of economists in a Reuters poll expect a taper announcement will come in the next quarter, despite a patchy recovery in the job market.</p>\n<p>\"Whilst no immediate changes in monetary policy are anticipated, an increase in the share of FOMC members who think rates will need to increase in 2023 is expected,\" analysts at ANZ wrote in a note to clients.</p>\n<p>\"If three more members pencil in rate rises for 2023, that would tip the majority in favour of moving rates relatively soon,\" they said.</p>\n<p>In Asia, the MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan trading flat. Japan's Nikkei</p>\n<p>rose 1% and the Australian benchmark traded up 0.93%, but Chinese blue chips fell 1.1%.</p>\n<p>China's markets were closed on Monday for a holiday, meaning this was their first response to a joint statement by the Group of Seven leaders that had scolded Beijing over a range of issues which China called a gross interference in the country's internal affairs.</p>\n<p><b>STRONG DOLLAR</b></p>\n<p>In currency markets, the dollar held onto its gains against major currencies. The dollar index was at 90.414, not far off the top of its recent range.</p>\n<p>Retail sales and industrial production data due later on Tuesday could spark some modest dollar volatility, wrote analysts at CBA in a research note.</p>\n<p>In the face of the strong dollar, spot gold was down slightly at $1,862.21 per ounce.</p>\n<p>Benchmark 10-year yields were 1.4838%, little changed from Monday, when they rebounded from Friday's three-month low.</p>\n<p>As for commodities, U.S. crude ticked up 0.38% to $71.15 a barrel. Brent crude rose to $73.15 per barrel as talks dragged on over the United States rejoining a nuclear agreement with Tehran suggesting any surge in supply from Iran is some time away.</p>\n<p>Even bitcoin was fairly quiet, fluctuating a little above $40,000. It rose on Sunday and Monday after Elon Musk said Tesla could resume accepting payment in the world's largest cryptocurrency at some point in the future.</p>\n<p>(Reporting by Thyagaraju Adinarayan in London and Alun John in Hong Kong; Editing by Ana Nicolaci da Costa, Lincoln Feast and Kim Coghill)</p>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"159934":"黄金ETF","518880":"黄金ETF","IAU":"黄金信托ETF(iShares)","QID":"纳指两倍做空ETF","FXE":"欧元做多ETF-CurrencyShares","GDX":"黄金矿业ETF-VanEck","GLD":"SPDR黄金ETF","DUST":"二倍做空黄金矿业指数ETF-Direxion","USO":"美国原油ETF","DDG":"ProShares做空石油与天然气ETF",".DJI":"道琼斯",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","QLD":"纳指两倍做多ETF","DXD":"道指两倍做空ETF","PSQ":"纳指反向ETF","UCO":"二倍做多彭博原油ETF",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","DUG":"二倍做空石油与天然气ETF(ProShares)","SDOW":"道指三倍做空ETF-ProShares","EUO":"欧元ETF-ProShares两倍做空","DDM":"道指两倍做多ETF","NUGT":"二倍做多黄金矿业指数ETF-Direxion","SQQQ":"纳指三倍做空ETF","TQQQ":"纳指三倍做多ETF","DJX":"1/100道琼斯","SCO":"二倍做空彭博原油指数ETF","QQQ":"纳指100ETF","FXY":"日元ETF-CurrencyShares","DWT":"三倍做空原油ETN","FXB":"英镑ETF-CurrencyShares","DOG":"道指反向ETF","YCS":"日元ETF-ProShares两倍做空","UDOW":"道指三倍做多ETF-ProShares"},"is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2143581857","content_text":"By Thyagaraju Adinarayan and Alun John\nLONDON/HONG KONG, June 15 (Reuters) - World stocks hit yet another record high on Tuesday, with European stocks poised for their longest winning streak since 2019 as investors bet likely \"transitory\" inflation pressures will stay the U.S. Federal Reserve's hand from signalling a shift in policy settings.\nA majority of investors surveyed by BofA said inflation was transitory, a marked change from March, when worries about more sustained price rises had sent U.S. 10-year Treasury yields surging to nearly 1.8%. With the yield now pinned below 1.5%, BofA expects the Fed to signal a dial back in stimulus by September.\nAbating worries about inflation helped U.S. and European shares scale new highs, with the pan-regional STOXX 600 rising 0.4%, its eighth straight day of gains. U.S. stock futures were up 0.1%.\n\"Several factors that have pushed up inflation are likely to fade in the coming months,\" said Mark Haefele, chief investment officer at UBS Global Wealth.\n\"We don’t expect inflation to prompt a premature tightening of monetary policy or to derail the equity rally,\" Haefele added.\nThe two-day Fed meeting starts on Tuesday, with a final statement published after the meeting closes on Wednesday.\nTraders around the world are looking for any hints about whether and when the Fed plans to taper its bond buying programme as the U.S. economy bounces back from the pandemic fallout.\nNearly 60% of economists in a Reuters poll expect a taper announcement will come in the next quarter, despite a patchy recovery in the job market.\n\"Whilst no immediate changes in monetary policy are anticipated, an increase in the share of FOMC members who think rates will need to increase in 2023 is expected,\" analysts at ANZ wrote in a note to clients.\n\"If three more members pencil in rate rises for 2023, that would tip the majority in favour of moving rates relatively soon,\" they said.\nIn Asia, the MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan trading flat. Japan's Nikkei\nrose 1% and the Australian benchmark traded up 0.93%, but Chinese blue chips fell 1.1%.\nChina's markets were closed on Monday for a holiday, meaning this was their first response to a joint statement by the Group of Seven leaders that had scolded Beijing over a range of issues which China called a gross interference in the country's internal affairs.\nSTRONG DOLLAR\nIn currency markets, the dollar held onto its gains against major currencies. The dollar index was at 90.414, not far off the top of its recent range.\nRetail sales and industrial production data due later on Tuesday could spark some modest dollar volatility, wrote analysts at CBA in a research note.\nIn the face of the strong dollar, spot gold was down slightly at $1,862.21 per ounce.\nBenchmark 10-year yields were 1.4838%, little changed from Monday, when they rebounded from Friday's three-month low.\nAs for commodities, U.S. crude ticked up 0.38% to $71.15 a barrel. Brent crude rose to $73.15 per barrel as talks dragged on over the United States rejoining a nuclear agreement with Tehran suggesting any surge in supply from Iran is some time away.\nEven bitcoin was fairly quiet, fluctuating a little above $40,000. It rose on Sunday and Monday after Elon Musk said Tesla could resume accepting payment in the world's largest cryptocurrency at some point in the future.\n(Reporting by Thyagaraju Adinarayan in London and Alun John in Hong Kong; Editing by Ana Nicolaci da Costa, Lincoln Feast and Kim Coghill)","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":58,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}