FrankPang的个人主页 - 老虎社区

FrankPang

FrankPang

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0主题

0勋章

2022-04-08

$Shanghai Fosun Pharmaceutical(Group)Co.,Ltd.(600196)$ok

2022-03-24

$Alibaba(BABA)$ok

2022-03-23

Ol

@FrankPang:$Alibaba(BABA)$ol

2022-03-22

$Alibaba(BABA)$ol

2022-03-21

$Alibaba(BABA)$ok

2022-03-18

$Shanghai Fosun Pharmaceutical(Group)Co.,Ltd.(600196)$ok

2022-03-14

$Shanghai Fosun Pharmaceutical(Group)Co.,Ltd.(600196)$ok

2022-03-09

Ok//@FrankPang: Ok

@FrankPang:$Shanghai Fosun Pharmaceutical(Group)Co.,Ltd.(600196)$ok

2022-03-08

Ok

@FrankPang:$Shanghai Fosun Pharmaceutical(Group)Co.,Ltd.(600196)$ok

2022-03-04

Ok

@FrankPang:$Shanghai Fosun Pharmaceutical(Group)Co.,Ltd.(600196)$ok

2022-02-25

$Shanghai Fosun Pharmaceutical(Group)Co.,Ltd.(600196)$ok

2022-02-24

$Shanghai Fosun Pharmaceutical(Group)Co.,Ltd.(600196)$ok

2022-02-23

$SHANGRI-LA ASIA LIMITED(S07.SI)$ok

2022-02-23

Ok

@程俊Dream:黄金的上行趋势可能已经启动，重回2000的巅峰并不夸张

2022-02-23

Ok

@SCLOW:Russo-Ukrainian crisis

2022-02-23

Ok

@zhuzhu518:$NVIDIA Corp(NVDA)$有没有可能跟特斯拉一样，财报凶猛但是结局惨淡?

2022-02-21

$Alibaba(BABA)$ok

2022-02-21

Ok

@SCLOW:Russo-Ukrainian crisis

2022-02-21

Ok

@雪豹财经社:从5万亿到2万亿：抄底阿里的时机到了吗？

2022-02-21

Ok

@美港股观察社:美团暴跌究竟怎么回事？

去老虎APP查看更多动态

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长久以来，我们就是一直坚定的黄金长线多头。尽管去年多空走势拉锯明显，并且也时不时的出现一些这样那样的负面利空消息，但基于周线和月线级别的技术图形依然暗示黄金涨势并未结束。 从基本面和消息面来看，美联储加息所带来的打击已经越来越小。市场在此前的调整中已经吸收了这种影响，并且从美债收益率走势来看，黄金和货币政策的关联性在去年初已经出现改变。换而言之，加息不等于黄金下跌。 而从消息面来看，黄金这个传统的避险资产在地缘政治和冲突中的表现是明显的受益者。传统有“枪炮一响，黄金万两”的说法。虽然有些言过其实，但是当前没有更好更安全的选择之下，买黄金还是大多数人和市场的第一反应。 在这个层面上，我们预计2022年还会有类似的事件爆发。随着全球央行货币政策的调整，国与国之间的利益再分配已经是大势所趋。谋取利益最大化之下，冲突不可避免。因此黄金会不断因为这种紧张情绪而成为赢家。 回到市场本身，目前黄金多头已经迈出了第一步，但是距离“起飞”可能还有1-2个环节/阻力有待解决。1880水平涵盖了去年末的高位以及去年初的反弹压制，套牢盘和技术性卖盘预计会影响到上行的动力。需要一个新的刺激因素，亦或者足够的换手之后，才有机会站稳上述位置。随后就是去年6月的1920高位，这也是打开重回2000大关的关键。 相较于黄金，白银的表现略显落后。尽管已经从低位价格平台反弹超过10%，但是当前的价格还处于去年8月以来的下降通道之中。我们之前也讲过，在贵金属单边市场中，白银涨跌幅度都应该大于黄金。因此，白银是一个可以观察验证黄金的重要参考。只要维持在21附近的地板价之上，黄金白银就不存","listText":"在俄乌冲突的影响之下，黄金上周强势上行，虽然还没有刷新去年11月的高位，但是盘旋许久的三角形形态上轨被突破。这可能意味着，我们期待的方向性/趋势性行情已经启动。2022年诸多不确定性之下，黄金还是大家投资组合中不可或缺的一部分。 长久以来，我们就是一直坚定的黄金长线多头。尽管去年多空走势拉锯明显，并且也时不时的出现一些这样那样的负面利空消息，但基于周线和月线级别的技术图形依然暗示黄金涨势并未结束。 从基本面和消息面来看，美联储加息所带来的打击已经越来越小。市场在此前的调整中已经吸收了这种影响，并且从美债收益率走势来看，黄金和货币政策的关联性在去年初已经出现改变。换而言之，加息不等于黄金下跌。 而从消息面来看，黄金这个传统的避险资产在地缘政治和冲突中的表现是明显的受益者。传统有“枪炮一响，黄金万两”的说法。虽然有些言过其实，但是当前没有更好更安全的选择之下，买黄金还是大多数人和市场的第一反应。 在这个层面上，我们预计2022年还会有类似的事件爆发。随着全球央行货币政策的调整，国与国之间的利益再分配已经是大势所趋。谋取利益最大化之下，冲突不可避免。因此黄金会不断因为这种紧张情绪而成为赢家。 回到市场本身，目前黄金多头已经迈出了第一步，但是距离“起飞”可能还有1-2个环节/阻力有待解决。1880水平涵盖了去年末的高位以及去年初的反弹压制，套牢盘和技术性卖盘预计会影响到上行的动力。需要一个新的刺激因素，亦或者足够的换手之后，才有机会站稳上述位置。随后就是去年6月的1920高位，这也是打开重回2000大关的关键。 相较于黄金，白银的表现略显落后。尽管已经从低位价格平台反弹超过10%，但是当前的价格还处于去年8月以来的下降通道之中。我们之前也讲过，在贵金属单边市场中，白银涨跌幅度都应该大于黄金。因此，白银是一个可以观察验证黄金的重要参考。只要维持在21附近的地板价之上，黄金白银就不存","text":"在俄乌冲突的影响之下，黄金上周强势上行，虽然还没有刷新去年11月的高位，但是盘旋许久的三角形形态上轨被突破。这可能意味着，我们期待的方向性/趋势性行情已经启动。2022年诸多不确定性之下，黄金还是大家投资组合中不可或缺的一部分。 长久以来，我们就是一直坚定的黄金长线多头。尽管去年多空走势拉锯明显，并且也时不时的出现一些这样那样的负面利空消息，但基于周线和月线级别的技术图形依然暗示黄金涨势并未结束。 从基本面和消息面来看，美联储加息所带来的打击已经越来越小。市场在此前的调整中已经吸收了这种影响，并且从美债收益率走势来看，黄金和货币政策的关联性在去年初已经出现改变。换而言之，加息不等于黄金下跌。 而从消息面来看，黄金这个传统的避险资产在地缘政治和冲突中的表现是明显的受益者。传统有“枪炮一响，黄金万两”的说法。虽然有些言过其实，但是当前没有更好更安全的选择之下，买黄金还是大多数人和市场的第一反应。 在这个层面上，我们预计2022年还会有类似的事件爆发。随着全球央行货币政策的调整，国与国之间的利益再分配已经是大势所趋。谋取利益最大化之下，冲突不可避免。因此黄金会不断因为这种紧张情绪而成为赢家。 回到市场本身，目前黄金多头已经迈出了第一步，但是距离“起飞”可能还有1-2个环节/阻力有待解决。1880水平涵盖了去年末的高位以及去年初的反弹压制，套牢盘和技术性卖盘预计会影响到上行的动力。需要一个新的刺激因素，亦或者足够的换手之后，才有机会站稳上述位置。随后就是去年6月的1920高位，这也是打开重回2000大关的关键。 相较于黄金，白银的表现略显落后。尽管已经从低位价格平台反弹超过10%，但是当前的价格还处于去年8月以来的下降通道之中。我们之前也讲过，在贵金属单边市场中，白银涨跌幅度都应该大于黄金。因此，白银是一个可以观察验证黄金的重要参考。只要维持在21附近的地板价之上，黄金白银就不存","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/61f65a24217e01e1c439d4c04a21abaf","width":"-1","height":"-1"}],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":2,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/631243480","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":275,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":636931894,"gmtCreate":1645618576807,"gmtModify":1645618577036,"author":{"id":"3562581813714490","authorId":"3562581813714490","name":"FrankPang","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/aaa6febe46886634e58dd4a543aafe96","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Ok","listText":"Ok","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/636931894","repostId":"631246660","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":631246660,"gmtCreate":1644808517405,"gmtModify":1644882057749,"author":{"id":"3572034257249930","authorId":"3572034257249930","name":"SCLOW","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"title":"Russo-Ukrainian crisis","htmlText":"Geopolitical worries have added another layer of volatility to an already-jumpy market as investors priced in the possibility of escalating conflict between Russia and Ukraine, though some doubted the issue would weigh on U.S. asset prices over the longer term. Reports of rising tensions between the two countries slammed stocks on Friday and lifted prices for Treasuries, the dollar and other safe-haven assets. Investors were already rattled by a hawkish turn from the Federal Reserve.The market is reacting because an actual invasion has not yet been priced in,\" said Michael Farr of Farr, Miller and Washington LLC. \"The severity of an invasion, if one occurs, will correlate to the severity of the market’s reaction.\" The United States and Europe stepped up their warnings of an imminent attack","listText":"Geopolitical worries have added another layer of volatility to an already-jumpy market as investors priced in the possibility of escalating conflict between Russia and Ukraine, though some doubted the issue would weigh on U.S. asset prices over the longer term. Reports of rising tensions between the two countries slammed stocks on Friday and lifted prices for Treasuries, the dollar and other safe-haven assets. Investors were already rattled by a hawkish turn from the Federal Reserve.The market is reacting because an actual invasion has not yet been priced in,\" said Michael Farr of Farr, Miller and Washington LLC. \"The severity of an invasion, if one occurs, will correlate to the severity of the market’s reaction.\" The United States and Europe stepped up their warnings of an imminent attack","text":"Geopolitical worries have added another layer of volatility to an already-jumpy market as investors priced in the possibility of escalating conflict between Russia and Ukraine, though some doubted the issue would weigh on U.S. asset prices over the longer term. Reports of rising tensions between the two countries slammed stocks on Friday and lifted prices for Treasuries, the dollar and other safe-haven assets. Investors were already rattled by a hawkish turn from the Federal Reserve.The market is reacting because an actual invasion has not yet been priced in,\" said Michael Farr of Farr, Miller and Washington LLC. \"The severity of an invasion, if one occurs, will correlate to the severity of the market’s reaction.\" The United States and Europe stepped up their warnings of an imminent attack","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":1,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/631246660","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":166,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":636931110,"gmtCreate":1645618564395,"gmtModify":1645618564539,"author":{"id":"3562581813714490","authorId":"3562581813714490","name":"FrankPang","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/aaa6febe46886634e58dd4a543aafe96","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Ok","listText":"Ok","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/636931110","repostId":"638079629","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":638079629,"gmtCreate":1645005301607,"gmtModify":1645052960492,"author":{"id":"3573593808442035","authorId":"3573593808442035","name":"zhuzhu518","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/272cc270b288063fa925b5f2c1a0bb76","crmLevel":9,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">$NVIDIA Corp(NVDA)$</a>有没有可能跟特斯拉一样，财报凶猛但是结局惨淡?","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">$NVIDIA Corp(NVDA)$</a>有没有可能跟特斯拉一样，财报凶猛但是结局惨淡?","text":"$NVIDIA Corp(NVDA)$有没有可能跟特斯拉一样，财报凶猛但是结局惨淡?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/638079629","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":118,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":638259579,"gmtCreate":1645401723822,"gmtModify":1645401724033,"author":{"id":"3562581813714490","authorId":"3562581813714490","name":"FrankPang","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/aaa6febe46886634e58dd4a543aafe96","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BABA\">$Alibaba(BABA)$</a>ok","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BABA\">$Alibaba(BABA)$</a>ok","text":"$Alibaba(BABA)$ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/638259579","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":417,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":638259238,"gmtCreate":1645401608725,"gmtModify":1645401608879,"author":{"id":"3562581813714490","authorId":"3562581813714490","name":"FrankPang","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/aaa6febe46886634e58dd4a543aafe96","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Ok","listText":"Ok","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/638259238","repostId":"631246660","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":631246660,"gmtCreate":1644808517405,"gmtModify":1644882057749,"author":{"id":"3572034257249930","authorId":"3572034257249930","name":"SCLOW","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"title":"Russo-Ukrainian crisis","htmlText":"Geopolitical worries have added another layer of volatility to an already-jumpy market as investors priced in the possibility of escalating conflict between Russia and Ukraine, though some doubted the issue would weigh on U.S. asset prices over the longer term. Reports of rising tensions between the two countries slammed stocks on Friday and lifted prices for Treasuries, the dollar and other safe-haven assets. Investors were already rattled by a hawkish turn from the Federal Reserve.The market is reacting because an actual invasion has not yet been priced in,\" said Michael Farr of Farr, Miller and Washington LLC. \"The severity of an invasion, if one occurs, will correlate to the severity of the market’s reaction.\" The United States and Europe stepped up their warnings of an imminent attack","listText":"Geopolitical worries have added another layer of volatility to an already-jumpy market as investors priced in the possibility of escalating conflict between Russia and Ukraine, though some doubted the issue would weigh on U.S. asset prices over the longer term. Reports of rising tensions between the two countries slammed stocks on Friday and lifted prices for Treasuries, the dollar and other safe-haven assets. Investors were already rattled by a hawkish turn from the Federal Reserve.The market is reacting because an actual invasion has not yet been priced in,\" said Michael Farr of Farr, Miller and Washington LLC. \"The severity of an invasion, if one occurs, will correlate to the severity of the market’s reaction.\" The United States and Europe stepped up their warnings of an imminent attack","text":"Geopolitical worries have added another layer of volatility to an already-jumpy market as investors priced in the possibility of escalating conflict between Russia and Ukraine, though some doubted the issue would weigh on U.S. asset prices over the longer term. Reports of rising tensions between the two countries slammed stocks on Friday and lifted prices for Treasuries, the dollar and other safe-haven assets. Investors were already rattled by a hawkish turn from the Federal Reserve.The market is reacting because an actual invasion has not yet been priced in,\" said Michael Farr of Farr, Miller and Washington LLC. \"The severity of an invasion, if one occurs, will correlate to the severity of the market’s reaction.\" The United States and Europe stepped up their warnings of an imminent attack","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":1,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/631246660","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":124,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":638259638,"gmtCreate":1645401597026,"gmtModify":1645401597187,"author":{"id":"3562581813714490","authorId":"3562581813714490","name":"FrankPang","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/aaa6febe46886634e58dd4a543aafe96","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Ok","listText":"Ok","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/638259638","repostId":"631254927","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":631254927,"gmtCreate":1644806073048,"gmtModify":1713510258220,"author":{"id":"4094088458050290","authorId":"4094088458050290","name":"雪豹财经社","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0a45ac8eeb061d38f10388a40dc43d23","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"title":"从5万亿到2万亿：抄底阿里的时机到了吗？","htmlText":"雪豹财经社·特约撰稿&nbsp;| 巴 安封面来源 | 摄图网16个月前，2020年10月，阿里巴巴创下319美元/股的历史最高，折合成人民币，市值超5万亿。2022年情人节前的最后一个交易日（2月11日），阿里收盘价为122.25美元，市值约2.1万亿人民币。与最高价相比，已经跌去约62%。抄底阿里的时机到了吗？一个人的投资方式，取决于对投资这件事的认知。到目前为止，我始终相信3个基本假设： 短期而言，股价的涨跌无法预测。 长期而言，股票价格会回归公司价值。 公司价值，是由其持续创造强劲的正向现金流的能力决定的。 由于“股价的短期涨跌无法预测”，“能否抄底”这个问题，不可能有一个可靠的短期答案。但长期而言，“股票价格会回归公司价值”。因此，比抄底更值得思考的问题是：目前价格下，阿里的价值被低估了吗？简单看PE（市盈率），阿里股价处于相对便宜的区间。 和历史对比，它至少在过去3年内都是最便宜的。阿里2022年1月底的PE TTM（滚动市盈率）在16倍左右，2020年底、2019年底分别是31和43。 和同业对比，亚马逊的PE是60倍左右。 但PE只是相对估值，只能说明阿里相对过去便宜，相对同业便宜。但它无法说明：阿里的业务，是否现在也就值这么多钱。目前的市场情绪，对阿里的未来盈利前景预期极度悲观。反映在股价上，阿里股价从2021年初的约227美元，下跌到2022年2月初的120美元左右。支撑这种悲观情绪的，主要是以下4个观点。 阿里的市场优势地位正在被拼多多、直播电商持续蚕食。 阿里未来缺乏新的业务增长点。 持续的监管压力（如反垄断等）将压制阿里盈利能力。 阿里作为“基础设施”，理应参照“公用事业”来估值。而公用事业的估值水平，理应偏低。 这些观点在多大程度上是对的？如果是对的，影响几何？基于事实、数据，我们逐个讨论。优势地位会被颠覆吗？老对手拼多多，以及以抖音、快手为代表","listText":"雪豹财经社·特约撰稿&nbsp;| 巴 安封面来源 | 摄图网16个月前，2020年10月，阿里巴巴创下319美元/股的历史最高，折合成人民币，市值超5万亿。2022年情人节前的最后一个交易日（2月11日），阿里收盘价为122.25美元，市值约2.1万亿人民币。与最高价相比，已经跌去约62%。抄底阿里的时机到了吗？一个人的投资方式，取决于对投资这件事的认知。到目前为止，我始终相信3个基本假设： 短期而言，股价的涨跌无法预测。 长期而言，股票价格会回归公司价值。 公司价值，是由其持续创造强劲的正向现金流的能力决定的。 由于“股价的短期涨跌无法预测”，“能否抄底”这个问题，不可能有一个可靠的短期答案。但长期而言，“股票价格会回归公司价值”。因此，比抄底更值得思考的问题是：目前价格下，阿里的价值被低估了吗？简单看PE（市盈率），阿里股价处于相对便宜的区间。 和历史对比，它至少在过去3年内都是最便宜的。阿里2022年1月底的PE TTM（滚动市盈率）在16倍左右，2020年底、2019年底分别是31和43。 和同业对比，亚马逊的PE是60倍左右。 但PE只是相对估值，只能说明阿里相对过去便宜，相对同业便宜。但它无法说明：阿里的业务，是否现在也就值这么多钱。目前的市场情绪，对阿里的未来盈利前景预期极度悲观。反映在股价上，阿里股价从2021年初的约227美元，下跌到2022年2月初的120美元左右。支撑这种悲观情绪的，主要是以下4个观点。 阿里的市场优势地位正在被拼多多、直播电商持续蚕食。 阿里未来缺乏新的业务增长点。 持续的监管压力（如反垄断等）将压制阿里盈利能力。 阿里作为“基础设施”，理应参照“公用事业”来估值。而公用事业的估值水平，理应偏低。 这些观点在多大程度上是对的？如果是对的，影响几何？基于事实、数据，我们逐个讨论。优势地位会被颠覆吗？老对手拼多多，以及以抖音、快手为代表","text":"雪豹财经社·特约撰稿 | 巴 安封面来源 | 摄图网16个月前，2020年10月，阿里巴巴创下319美元/股的历史最高，折合成人民币，市值超5万亿。2022年情人节前的最后一个交易日（2月11日），阿里收盘价为122.25美元，市值约2.1万亿人民币。与最高价相比，已经跌去约62%。抄底阿里的时机到了吗？一个人的投资方式，取决于对投资这件事的认知。到目前为止，我始终相信3个基本假设： 短期而言，股价的涨跌无法预测。 长期而言，股票价格会回归公司价值。 公司价值，是由其持续创造强劲的正向现金流的能力决定的。 由于“股价的短期涨跌无法预测”，“能否抄底”这个问题，不可能有一个可靠的短期答案。但长期而言，“股票价格会回归公司价值”。因此，比抄底更值得思考的问题是：目前价格下，阿里的价值被低估了吗？简单看PE（市盈率），阿里股价处于相对便宜的区间。 和历史对比，它至少在过去3年内都是最便宜的。阿里2022年1月底的PE TTM（滚动市盈率）在16倍左右，2020年底、2019年底分别是31和43。 和同业对比，亚马逊的PE是60倍左右。 但PE只是相对估值，只能说明阿里相对过去便宜，相对同业便宜。但它无法说明：阿里的业务，是否现在也就值这么多钱。目前的市场情绪，对阿里的未来盈利前景预期极度悲观。反映在股价上，阿里股价从2021年初的约227美元，下跌到2022年2月初的120美元左右。支撑这种悲观情绪的，主要是以下4个观点。 阿里的市场优势地位正在被拼多多、直播电商持续蚕食。 阿里未来缺乏新的业务增长点。 持续的监管压力（如反垄断等）将压制阿里盈利能力。 阿里作为“基础设施”，理应参照“公用事业”来估值。而公用事业的估值水平，理应偏低。 这些观点在多大程度上是对的？如果是对的，影响几何？基于事实、数据，我们逐个讨论。优势地位会被颠覆吗？老对手拼多多，以及以抖音、快手为代表","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/79765dbb3a231576a0e3af001d2eb78d","width":"1080","height":"606"}],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":2,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/631254927","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":5,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":84,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":638259836,"gmtCreate":1645401586941,"gmtModify":1645401587179,"author":{"id":"3562581813714490","authorId":"3562581813714490","name":"FrankPang","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/aaa6febe46886634e58dd4a543aafe96","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Ok","listText":"Ok","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/638259836","repostId":"638886435","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":638886435,"gmtCreate":1645175026495,"gmtModify":1645180736938,"author":{"id":"3519157433193136","authorId":"3519157433193136","name":"美港股观察社","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cfcc85fddcd77379cda6138d51be4c17","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"title":"美团暴跌究竟怎么回事？","htmlText":"今天过了下午2点半，美团突然跳水，仅仅一个小时下跌超过17%，最后收跌14.86%。美团作为港股超万亿港币市值的互联网公司，直接带崩其他互联网公司。阿里巴巴、快手、B站悉数下跌，腾讯是里面算稳的了。导致美团下跌的原因来自一份由国家发改委等14部门印发《关于促进服务业领域困难行业恢复发展的若干政策》文件，这份文件的第二大部分的第12条提到了“引导外卖等互联网平台企业进一步下调餐饮业商户服务费标准”。尽管文件中没有进一步细化“商户服务费”，不过大部分人一看就明白说的是美团向餐饮店收的“佣金”。“佣金”一直以来都是美团的主要收入来源，根据2021年三季报，来自餐饮的佣金占总收入47.6%。如果这部分收入下调，确实严重影响美团的收入规模。来源：美团2021年Q3财报回到这份文件本身，这份文件并不是针对美团的，这份文件分成了8部分，分别讨论了服务业、餐饮业、零售业、旅游业、运输业、民航业、防疫措施以及保障措施，关于互联网平台对商家的收费只是其中一点，并不是监管文件。并且用词是“引导”，看起来比较平和，也没有说下调的幅度。再看最后半句，说的是“阶段性”服务优惠，即使实施也不是永久下调服务费标准。当然，文件实施将增加未来美团增长的不确定性，在2020年一季度因为新冠疫情爆发，美团单季度收入就大幅下降，投资者担心收入再度大幅缩水，影响美团增长，并且不知道会持续多久。来源：理杏仁从估值方面来看，其实投资者一直不知道如何给美团估值，尽管美团体量做得很大，并且使用频率极高，大部分人每天都要打开好几次，无论是点外卖还是骑共享单车。在2020年二季度到2021年一季度，美团快速从疫情中恢复过来，收入规模新高，APP也成为本地生活的巨无霸。来源：理杏仁尽管盈利能力并不稳定，但美团被看作中国互联网的核心资产之一，既然是核心资产还需要知道怎么估值吗？买就完了，市销率从4倍拉到22倍。今天暴跌之后，估值依然","listText":"今天过了下午2点半，美团突然跳水，仅仅一个小时下跌超过17%，最后收跌14.86%。美团作为港股超万亿港币市值的互联网公司，直接带崩其他互联网公司。阿里巴巴、快手、B站悉数下跌，腾讯是里面算稳的了。导致美团下跌的原因来自一份由国家发改委等14部门印发《关于促进服务业领域困难行业恢复发展的若干政策》文件，这份文件的第二大部分的第12条提到了“引导外卖等互联网平台企业进一步下调餐饮业商户服务费标准”。尽管文件中没有进一步细化“商户服务费”，不过大部分人一看就明白说的是美团向餐饮店收的“佣金”。“佣金”一直以来都是美团的主要收入来源，根据2021年三季报，来自餐饮的佣金占总收入47.6%。如果这部分收入下调，确实严重影响美团的收入规模。来源：美团2021年Q3财报回到这份文件本身，这份文件并不是针对美团的，这份文件分成了8部分，分别讨论了服务业、餐饮业、零售业、旅游业、运输业、民航业、防疫措施以及保障措施，关于互联网平台对商家的收费只是其中一点，并不是监管文件。并且用词是“引导”，看起来比较平和，也没有说下调的幅度。再看最后半句，说的是“阶段性”服务优惠，即使实施也不是永久下调服务费标准。当然，文件实施将增加未来美团增长的不确定性，在2020年一季度因为新冠疫情爆发，美团单季度收入就大幅下降，投资者担心收入再度大幅缩水，影响美团增长，并且不知道会持续多久。来源：理杏仁从估值方面来看，其实投资者一直不知道如何给美团估值，尽管美团体量做得很大，并且使用频率极高，大部分人每天都要打开好几次，无论是点外卖还是骑共享单车。在2020年二季度到2021年一季度，美团快速从疫情中恢复过来，收入规模新高，APP也成为本地生活的巨无霸。来源：理杏仁尽管盈利能力并不稳定，但美团被看作中国互联网的核心资产之一，既然是核心资产还需要知道怎么估值吗？买就完了，市销率从4倍拉到22倍。今天暴跌之后，估值依然","text":"今天过了下午2点半，美团突然跳水，仅仅一个小时下跌超过17%，最后收跌14.86%。美团作为港股超万亿港币市值的互联网公司，直接带崩其他互联网公司。阿里巴巴、快手、B站悉数下跌，腾讯是里面算稳的了。导致美团下跌的原因来自一份由国家发改委等14部门印发《关于促进服务业领域困难行业恢复发展的若干政策》文件，这份文件的第二大部分的第12条提到了“引导外卖等互联网平台企业进一步下调餐饮业商户服务费标准”。尽管文件中没有进一步细化“商户服务费”，不过大部分人一看就明白说的是美团向餐饮店收的“佣金”。“佣金”一直以来都是美团的主要收入来源，根据2021年三季报，来自餐饮的佣金占总收入47.6%。如果这部分收入下调，确实严重影响美团的收入规模。来源：美团2021年Q3财报回到这份文件本身，这份文件并不是针对美团的，这份文件分成了8部分，分别讨论了服务业、餐饮业、零售业、旅游业、运输业、民航业、防疫措施以及保障措施，关于互联网平台对商家的收费只是其中一点，并不是监管文件。并且用词是“引导”，看起来比较平和，也没有说下调的幅度。再看最后半句，说的是“阶段性”服务优惠，即使实施也不是永久下调服务费标准。当然，文件实施将增加未来美团增长的不确定性，在2020年一季度因为新冠疫情爆发，美团单季度收入就大幅下降，投资者担心收入再度大幅缩水，影响美团增长，并且不知道会持续多久。来源：理杏仁从估值方面来看，其实投资者一直不知道如何给美团估值，尽管美团体量做得很大，并且使用频率极高，大部分人每天都要打开好几次，无论是点外卖还是骑共享单车。在2020年二季度到2021年一季度，美团快速从疫情中恢复过来，收入规模新高，APP也成为本地生活的巨无霸。来源：理杏仁尽管盈利能力并不稳定，但美团被看作中国互联网的核心资产之一，既然是核心资产还需要知道怎么估值吗？买就完了，市销率从4倍拉到22倍。今天暴跌之后，估值依然","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4d714575f15cf90da11453a3f000aaf2"},{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/44d13093455b37131f14dacc679e642a"},{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8b52b3e91885e0c0566fb1d7c30ec3e7"}],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":2,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/638886435","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":5,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":228,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":879933238,"gmtCreate":1636675616742,"gmtModify":1636675616992,"author":{"id":"3562581813714490","authorId":"3562581813714490","name":"FrankPang","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/aaa6febe46886634e58dd4a543aafe96","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a 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target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/EH\">$亿航智能(EH)$</a>&nbsp;控股有限公司（Nasdaq: EH）（下文简称“亿航智能”或“公司”）今天宣布日本领先的空中交通数字平台公司AirX株式会社（下文简称“AirX”）订购了50架EH216系列自动驾驶飞行器。这是亿航智能迄今在日本获得的最大一笔预售订单。图：亿航智能与AirX预售协议签约仪式此次签约订单体现出亿航智能领先的自动驾驶飞行器在业界的认可度不断提高。AirX订购的EH216自动驾驶飞行器，计划应用于日本的城市空中交通项目，并有望为2025年大阪·关西世界博览会提供空中的士服务。作为日本领先的直升机服务平台提供商，AirX开发运营的航班预订平台已经覆盖了100多条直升机观光航线，以及私人直升机包机服务。每年，AirX平台在日本各地提供的直升机观光航班预订量达2,000多架次，私人直升机包机航班超过200架次。自成立以来，AirX已累计服务超过15,000名包机客户。 AirX创始人兼CEO手冢究表示：“低空出行以及低空旅游市场前景广阔。EH216具有自动驾驶、集群调度的优势，能够为客户提供高性价比的空中游览服务，这也是AirX在全球eVTOL（电动垂直起降）飞行器行业中选择亿航智能作为合作伙伴的原因。我们期待未来通过EH216，为消费者提供更加安全、便捷的出行选择。” 亿航智能创始人、董事长兼首席执行官胡华智表示：“与AirX的合作是亿航智能进一步探索和发展日本城市空中交通市场的重要里程碑。我们非常高兴地看到，越来越多的航空运输合作伙伴正在致力于将亿航智能安全、自动、环保的城市空中交通解决方案惠及普通大众。” 关于亿航智能亿航智能（Nasdaq: EH）是一家全球领先的智能自","listText":"中国广州，2022年1月20日——全球领先的智能自动驾驶飞行器科技企业<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/EH\">$亿航智能(EH)$</a>&nbsp;控股有限公司（Nasdaq: EH）（下文简称“亿航智能”或“公司”）今天宣布日本领先的空中交通数字平台公司AirX株式会社（下文简称“AirX”）订购了50架EH216系列自动驾驶飞行器。这是亿航智能迄今在日本获得的最大一笔预售订单。图：亿航智能与AirX预售协议签约仪式此次签约订单体现出亿航智能领先的自动驾驶飞行器在业界的认可度不断提高。AirX订购的EH216自动驾驶飞行器，计划应用于日本的城市空中交通项目，并有望为2025年大阪·关西世界博览会提供空中的士服务。作为日本领先的直升机服务平台提供商，AirX开发运营的航班预订平台已经覆盖了100多条直升机观光航线，以及私人直升机包机服务。每年，AirX平台在日本各地提供的直升机观光航班预订量达2,000多架次，私人直升机包机航班超过200架次。自成立以来，AirX已累计服务超过15,000名包机客户。 AirX创始人兼CEO手冢究表示：“低空出行以及低空旅游市场前景广阔。EH216具有自动驾驶、集群调度的优势，能够为客户提供高性价比的空中游览服务，这也是AirX在全球eVTOL（电动垂直起降）飞行器行业中选择亿航智能作为合作伙伴的原因。我们期待未来通过EH216，为消费者提供更加安全、便捷的出行选择。” 亿航智能创始人、董事长兼首席执行官胡华智表示：“与AirX的合作是亿航智能进一步探索和发展日本城市空中交通市场的重要里程碑。我们非常高兴地看到，越来越多的航空运输合作伙伴正在致力于将亿航智能安全、自动、环保的城市空中交通解决方案惠及普通大众。” 关于亿航智能亿航智能（Nasdaq: EH）是一家全球领先的智能自","text":"中国广州，2022年1月20日——全球领先的智能自动驾驶飞行器科技企业$亿航智能(EH)$ 控股有限公司（Nasdaq: EH）（下文简称“亿航智能”或“公司”）今天宣布日本领先的空中交通数字平台公司AirX株式会社（下文简称“AirX”）订购了50架EH216系列自动驾驶飞行器。这是亿航智能迄今在日本获得的最大一笔预售订单。图：亿航智能与AirX预售协议签约仪式此次签约订单体现出亿航智能领先的自动驾驶飞行器在业界的认可度不断提高。AirX订购的EH216自动驾驶飞行器，计划应用于日本的城市空中交通项目，并有望为2025年大阪·关西世界博览会提供空中的士服务。作为日本领先的直升机服务平台提供商，AirX开发运营的航班预订平台已经覆盖了100多条直升机观光航线，以及私人直升机包机服务。每年，AirX平台在日本各地提供的直升机观光航班预订量达2,000多架次，私人直升机包机航班超过200架次。自成立以来，AirX已累计服务超过15,000名包机客户。 AirX创始人兼CEO手冢究表示：“低空出行以及低空旅游市场前景广阔。EH216具有自动驾驶、集群调度的优势，能够为客户提供高性价比的空中游览服务，这也是AirX在全球eVTOL（电动垂直起降）飞行器行业中选择亿航智能作为合作伙伴的原因。我们期待未来通过EH216，为消费者提供更加安全、便捷的出行选择。” 亿航智能创始人、董事长兼首席执行官胡华智表示：“与AirX的合作是亿航智能进一步探索和发展日本城市空中交通市场的重要里程碑。我们非常高兴地看到，越来越多的航空运输合作伙伴正在致力于将亿航智能安全、自动、环保的城市空中交通解决方案惠及普通大众。” 关于亿航智能亿航智能（Nasdaq: 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