孟凡申的个人主页 - 老虎社区

孟凡申

孟凡申

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2主题

0勋章

2020-10-28

你喜欢什么样的男人？我喜欢笑起来发光的男人，你是说如来吗？

2020-10-22

只有看好未来发展趋势就可以参与。

抱歉，原内容已删除

2020-10-19

资本扩张的又一阶段。

高鑫零售ADR涨超30%，阿里宣布斥资280亿港元控股高鑫零售

2020-10-08

今天又是一个好日子，共同祝贺一下。

2020-09-15

路过

甲骨文恢复交易涨超6%，美财长称其是TikTok“伙伴”

2020-09-10

优秀的人等同于纳斯达克

通过这几天的内容学习了不少大咖的优秀思想理念，纳斯达克保罗的是世界上所有财富的流动资金，哪里有财富，资金量就会出现在哪里，毋庸置疑，跌的多了自然就会有有眼光的优秀的人群去发现它。

优秀的人等同于纳斯达克

2020-09-03

今天谁看到了利空消息，请评论一下。

2020-09-02

今天出于好奇买了5手中概股票，看看走势，上升通道已经成型。

2020-08-27

感觉又会出一些华而不实的忽悠人的言论，一向如此。

抱歉，原内容已删除

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21:57","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"高鑫零售ADR涨超30%，阿里宣布斥资280亿港元控股高鑫零售","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1101126748","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"10月19日，高鑫零售ADR涨超30%，阿里巴巴今日宣布计划斥资280亿港元控股高鑫零售。","content":"<p>10月19日，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/06808\">高鑫零售</a>ADR涨超30%，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BABA\">阿里巴巴</a>今日宣布计划斥资280亿港元控股高鑫零售。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b306fd63600ef094d80277212b7940fd\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\"></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>高鑫零售ADR涨超30%，阿里宣布斥资280亿港元控股高鑫零售</title>\n<style 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href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/06808\">高鑫零售</a>ADR涨超30%，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BABA\">阿里巴巴</a>今日宣布计划斥资280亿港元控股高鑫零售。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b306fd63600ef094d80277212b7940fd\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\"></p>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/26b45e0e7453ad72092d53c8a3faaf5b","relate_stocks":{"SURRY":"高鑫零售ADR"},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1101126748","content_text":"10月19日，高鑫零售ADR涨超30%，阿里巴巴今日宣布计划斥资280亿港元控股高鑫零售。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1522,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":300877688,"gmtCreate":1602163973744,"gmtModify":1703825984529,"author":{"id":"3561451783317866","authorId":"3561451783317866","name":"孟凡申","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/84a9935b5fe62ad89cf0468a726301a0","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"今天又是一个好日子，共同祝贺一下。","listText":"今天又是一个好日子，共同祝贺一下。","text":"今天又是一个好日子，共同祝贺一下。","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9f10401ae9e4590a17f1d4fb0f69c3f1","width":"720","height":"1304"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/300877688","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1825,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":972352638,"gmtCreate":1600121141324,"gmtModify":1703820388178,"author":{"id":"3561451783317866","authorId":"3561451783317866","name":"孟凡申","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/84a9935b5fe62ad89cf0468a726301a0","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"路过","listText":"路过","text":"路过","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/972352638","repostId":"1137461748","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1137461748","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据，旨在帮助投资者理解世界，做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1600094470,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1137461748?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2020-09-14 22:41","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"甲骨文恢复交易涨超6%，美财长称其是TikTok“伙伴”","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1137461748","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"9月14日盘中，甲骨文恢复交易后涨超6%。\n\n美国财政部长姆努钦9月14日接受媒体采访时称，财政部在周末接到提案，甲骨文作为TikTok可信赖的数据安全合规合作伙伴，代表解决美国国家安全问题。TikT","content":"<p>9月14日盘中，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ORCL\">甲骨文</a>恢复交易后涨超6%。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d1e2adbd9f8758c24aa3d4be66631c70\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\"></p>\n<p>美国财政部长姆努钦9月14日接受媒体采访时称，财政部在周末接到提案，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ORCL\">甲骨文</a>作为TikTok可信赖的数据安全合规合作伙伴，代表解决美国国家安全问题。TikTok将继续把美国作为总部，并为美国创造2万个工作岗位。</p>\n<p>值得注意的是，姆努钦谈到的解决方案，是甲骨文作为数据合规伙伴，类似<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">苹果</a>在中国由云上贵州进行数据合规的方案，并不涉及之前特朗普提到的要求TikTok出售，也不涉及TikTok的核心技术转让。</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" 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width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n甲骨文恢复交易涨超6%，美财长称其是TikTok“伙伴”\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2020-09-14 22:41</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>9月14日盘中，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ORCL\">甲骨文</a>恢复交易后涨超6%。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d1e2adbd9f8758c24aa3d4be66631c70\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\"></p>\n<p>美国财政部长姆努钦9月14日接受媒体采访时称，财政部在周末接到提案，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ORCL\">甲骨文</a>作为TikTok可信赖的数据安全合规合作伙伴，代表解决美国国家安全问题。TikTok将继续把美国作为总部，并为美国创造2万个工作岗位。</p>\n<p>值得注意的是，姆努钦谈到的解决方案，是甲骨文作为数据合规伙伴，类似<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">苹果</a>在中国由云上贵州进行数据合规的方案，并不涉及之前特朗普提到的要求TikTok出售，也不涉及TikTok的核心技术转让。</p>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5a763433a3b9770e33abe759e6bf88d9","relate_stocks":{"ORCL":"甲骨文"},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1137461748","content_text":"9月14日盘中，甲骨文恢复交易后涨超6%。\n\n美国财政部长姆努钦9月14日接受媒体采访时称，财政部在周末接到提案，甲骨文作为TikTok可信赖的数据安全合规合作伙伴，代表解决美国国家安全问题。TikTok将继续把美国作为总部，并为美国创造2万个工作岗位。\n值得注意的是，姆努钦谈到的解决方案，是甲骨文作为数据合规伙伴，类似苹果在中国由云上贵州进行数据合规的方案，并不涉及之前特朗普提到的要求TikTok出售，也不涉及TikTok的核心技术转让。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1772,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":976258788,"gmtCreate":1599745580744,"gmtModify":1703819577912,"author":{"id":"3561451783317866","authorId":"3561451783317866","name":"孟凡申","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/84a9935b5fe62ad89cf0468a726301a0","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"title":"优秀的人等同于纳斯达克","htmlText":"通过这几天的内容学习了不少大咖的优秀思想理念，纳斯达克保罗的是世界上所有财富的流动资金，哪里有财富，资金量就会出现在哪里，毋庸置疑，跌的多了自然就会有有眼光的优秀的人群去发现它。","listText":"通过这几天的内容学习了不少大咖的优秀思想理念，纳斯达克保罗的是世界上所有财富的流动资金，哪里有财富，资金量就会出现在哪里，毋庸置疑，跌的多了自然就会有有眼光的优秀的人群去发现它。","text":"通过这几天的内容学习了不少大咖的优秀思想理念，纳斯达克保罗的是世界上所有财富的流动资金，哪里有财富，资金量就会出现在哪里，毋庸置疑，跌的多了自然就会有有眼光的优秀的人群去发现它。","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/976258788","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2049,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":978357448,"gmtCreate":1599139991184,"gmtModify":1704221696361,"author":{"id":"3561451783317866","authorId":"3561451783317866","name":"孟凡申","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/84a9935b5fe62ad89cf0468a726301a0","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"今天谁看到了利空消息，请评论一下。","listText":"今天谁看到了利空消息，请评论一下。","text":"今天谁看到了利空消息，请评论一下。","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fd86d5e3b1fc4bd46daf41ef22fe332e","width":"720","height":"1304"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/978357448","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1360,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":978003084,"gmtCreate":1599057216848,"gmtModify":1704221326118,"author":{"id":"3561451783317866","authorId":"3561451783317866","name":"孟凡申","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/84a9935b5fe62ad89cf0468a726301a0","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"今天出于好奇买了5手中概股票，看看走势，上升通道已经成型。","listText":"今天出于好奇买了5手中概股票，看看走势，上升通道已经成型。","text":"今天出于好奇买了5手中概股票，看看走势，上升通道已经成型。","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6584a8759904c23f48dd695d70a05825","width":"720","height":"1600"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/978003084","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1981,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":973625846,"gmtCreate":1598536306785,"gmtModify":1704219366079,"author":{"id":"3561451783317866","authorId":"3561451783317866","name":"孟凡申","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/84a9935b5fe62ad89cf0468a726301a0","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"感觉又会出一些华而不实的忽悠人的言论，一向如此。","listText":"感觉又会出一些华而不实的忽悠人的言论，一向如此。","text":"感觉又会出一些华而不实的忽悠人的言论，一向如此。","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/973625846","repostId":"1173213820","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2393,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":973625846,"gmtCreate":1598536306785,"gmtModify":1704219366079,"author":{"id":"3561451783317866","authorId":"3561451783317866","name":"孟凡申","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/84a9935b5fe62ad89cf0468a726301a0","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"感觉又会出一些华而不实的忽悠人的言论，一向如此。","listText":"感觉又会出一些华而不实的忽悠人的言论，一向如此。","text":"感觉又会出一些华而不实的忽悠人的言论，一向如此。","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/973625846","repostId":"1173213820","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1173213820","pubTimestamp":1598493668,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1173213820?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2020-08-27 10:01","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"全球央行年会今起召开！鲍威尔重量级演讲料引爆大行情","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1173213820","media":"环球外汇网","summary":"在万众瞩目之下，为期三天的杰克逊霍尔全球央行年会将于今日起正式拉开帷幕。本次年会的主题为“展望未来十年：货币政策带来的影响”，与往年不同的是，由于新冠肺炎疫情的影响，今年的会议将在线上举行，参加此次虚","content":"<p>在万众瞩目之下，为期三天的杰克逊霍尔全球央行年会将于今日起正式拉开帷幕。本次年会的主题为“展望未来十年：货币政策带来的影响”，与往年不同的是，由于新冠肺炎疫情的影响，今年的会议将在线上举行，参加此次虚拟会议的将包括各国央行行长、美联储官员、学者和一些私营部门经济学家。</p>\n<p><b>全球央行年会素有政策拐点“晴雨表”之称，因为会议上的重量级人物的意外言论往往可能会在金融市场掀起巨浪</b>，尤其是在市场时值危机年份之际！2009年，美联储时任主席伯南克、日本央行时任行长白川方明和欧洲央行时任行长特里谢便利用这一年会表示，会联手应对全球金融危机。2010年、2012年和2014年，美联储分别在该年会上透露出有关量化宽松的政策信息。</p>\n<p>而今年，对于全球央行而言显然又是一个非常特殊的年份，在新冠肺炎疫情下，史无前例的宽松措施使得全球央行接近政策极限，全球央行就如何应对当前以及今后的挑战、如何退出超宽松政策的探讨就显得尤为重要。</p>\n<p><b>从事先发布的日程表看，美联储主席鲍威尔北京时间周四21:10将发表的题为“货币政策框架评估”的讲话，绝对是全球投资者最关注的焦点。</b>市场有关美联储通胀目标调整、政策评估、货币政策路径的种种猜测，或许都将在此次演讲中得到解答。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/66576bae5950a6d82a03535a1f7465cb\" tg-width=\"653\" tg-height=\"836\"></p>\n<p>而除了鲍威尔，在杰克逊霍尔会议上发言的还有英国央行行长安德鲁·贝利和欧洲央行首席经济学家菲利普·莱恩。经济学家和投资者基本上预计，这两大央行将在年底前宣布出台更多的货币刺激措施，比如增加债券购买规模。</p>\n<p><b>“平均通胀制”会否问世？鲍威尔演讲成年会重中之重！</b></p>\n<p><b>在不少业内人士看来，今日鲍威尔的演讲可能会在通胀问题上有重大政策细节透露，而一旦预测成真，这或许将是一次“历史性的演讲”。</b></p>\n<p>自2012年美联储将通胀目标设定为2%以来，用最受美联储青睐的个人消费支出(PCE)价格指数来衡量，美国的通胀率一直位于2%下方，平均值仅为1.4%。</p>\n<p>通胀迟迟难以上升已成为令美联储头疼的问题。加之经济增长迟缓，意味着利率一直处于历史低位。如此一来，美联储通过利率调节来抵御经济滑坡的能力就受到限制，也就意味着危机将持续更久，破坏程度也会更为严重。</p>\n<p><b>鲍威尔预计将在本次年会上概述美联储所要采取的积极行动，来刺激通胀回到健康的水准。有分析人士猜测，作为其框架改革的一部分，美联储可能需要一个新的通胀定义框架</b>，理想的情况是，可以同时捕捉到资产价格失控的通胀（即恶性通胀）与缓和的工资压力和实体经济价格（良好通胀）之间的巨大差异，如下图所示：</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5ec14a0f01fde1d64d32150f7d80f772\" tg-width=\"1138\" tg-height=\"895\"></p>\n<p><b>即便通胀衡量方式没有全面改革，市场似乎仍确信，鲍威尔可能提出“平均通胀目标”（average inflation target，AIT）。</b>这意味着，在央行长期以2%为健康通胀的标准之下，如果通胀长期低于这一水准，就要让通胀在一段期间内高于这一水准。自2009年中期之后，过去仅有2年曾达到过这一水准。此外，鲍威尔还将解释决定背后的想法，以及为什么负利率和收益率控制等其他选择项会被暂时搁置。</p>\n<p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GS\">高盛</a>就预计，美联储主席鲍威尔将在杰克逊霍尔全球央行年会上阐释美联储的框架，透露美联储框架评估的关键结论，甚至表明美联储将采用平均通胀目标(AIT)。这意味着在经济处于或接近充分就业时，美联储的通胀目标为2-2.5%。</p>\n<p>美银分析师Ralph Axel指出，“目前为止，美联储每一步调整都是小心翼翼的。鲍威尔可能会在此次年会上阐述美联储调整通胀目标的具体做法，包括将设定周期通胀目标区间（比如1.5%-2.5%），或者放宽对周期内通胀水平的限制（可能放宽50-100个基点）和时间限制，以推高平均通胀率。”</p>\n<p>独立研究机构Evercore ISI 的全球政策和央行策略团队主管Krishna Guha日前也表示，相信鲍威尔主席将在周四的讲话中，将采取一项具有深远影响和对风险友好的举措，实现软通胀平均化；美联储将“在本周期的复苏阶段寻求适度的通胀超调”，以避免“日本化”现象发生，即以通胀疲软为标志的长期低增长。</p>\n<p><b>此外，预计美联储还会调整对待最大化就业的策略。</b>过去官员们不愿意让失业率低于长期中性水平，因为担心过低失业率将导致通货膨胀过快上升。而如今，美联储将强调强劲的劳动力市场对经济和社会的益处。野村首席美国经济学家Lewis Alexander表示，除非出现了过高的通胀，否则美联储不会采取行动给就业市场降温，这实际上等于美联储放弃了中性失业率水平这个概念。</p>\n<p><b>一言恐定美联储数十年政策基调？金融市场屏息以待！</b></p>\n<p>自新冠肺炎疫情暴发以来，美联储努力维持零利率并通过大量购买债券来支撑美国市场和经济，但眼下美国疫情反弹，初请失业金人数超百万人，财政刺激方案却迟迟不能落地。财政政策缺位背景下，货币政策是否会受此影响走向进一步宽松，成为投资者关注的焦点。而鲍威尔的讲话将透露出美联储未来政策行动的风向。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dfcc7c2f5bca69ac92758cb52f09343b\" tg-width=\"620\" tg-height=\"348\"></p>\n<p><b>对于今晚的演讲，不少交易员指出，鲍威尔可能会无比谨慎，主要是因为调整通胀目标的影响实在太大了。根据美银利率政策研究团队的推演，如果美联储在通胀跌至谷底的情况下强行引入平均通胀目标的话，最严重的后果是——为达到平均2%的周期通胀目标，美联储可能在未来42年都无法调整利率。</b></p>\n<p>前白宫首席经济学家，现任哈佛大学教授Jason Furman则表示，“若五年后利率仍为零，我不会感到惊讶。”</p>\n<p><b>如果鲍威尔亲自登场阐述有关平均通胀目标的改革，不难想象美元将进一步承压，而黄金则将进一步大幅攀升。</b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SIVB\">硅谷银行</a>资深外汇交易员Minh Trang表示：“最令人期待的对话将是鲍威尔周四的讲话。人们预期，未来美联储在多大程度上愿意容忍更高的通胀方面可能会出现微妙的变化。”</p>\n<p>三菱日联全球市场研究主管Minori Uchida表示，“鲍威尔的讲话可能是一条导火索，彻底引爆美元的暴跌行情。我预计，鲍威尔将利用前瞻性指引发出鸽派信号，并谈及所谓的平均通胀目标，暗示美联储会在很长一段时间内将利率保持在低位，这会推低美元汇率。”</p>\n<p>至于鲍威尔言论对金价的影响，RBC Wealth Management董事总经理George Gero表示，金价涨势本周将继续，鲍威尔本周的讲话将是最值得关注的事件之一。</p>\n<p>道明证券认为，美联储主席鲍威尔在杰克逊霍尔的演讲或可“重振”贵金属价格。目前市场聚焦在鲍威尔周四在杰克逊霍尔研讨会的主旨演讲上。道明预计鲍威尔将实际上提前宣布货币政策框架的评估结果，即建议正式采用平均通胀目标制。美联储调整前瞻性指引并明确提出让通胀升至2%以上的做法或为贵金属价格提供支持。</p>\n<p><b>此外，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/C\">花旗</a>集团(Citi)周三发布的研究报告则指出，美联储主席鲍威尔即将发布的讲话只有较低的可能性会比市场预计的更加鸽派。</b></p>\n<p>花旗分析师表示：“我们预计只存在较低的可能性，美联储主席鲍威尔即将在央行年会上发表的将会能比市场预期的更加鸽派。我们认为讲话内容将会支持临时的通胀攀升观点，但整体通胀水平依然较低。当然了，我们也不能完全排除出现非常鸽派讲话的意外局面的风险。”</p>\n<p>花旗分析师补充道：“我们基本情境预期是，美元将会继续走低，欧元/美元将会上涨，美债实际收益率同样会下降，而风险资产和贵金属价格则将走高。另外还需关注的是之后美联储其他官员的讲话，尤其是美联储副主席克拉里达将在8月31日发布的讲话。”</p>","source":"hqwhw","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>全球央行年会今起召开！鲍威尔重量级演讲料引爆大行情</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n全球央行年会今起召开！鲍威尔重量级演讲料引爆大行情\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2020-08-27 10:01 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=http://www.cnforex.com/news/html/2020/08/27/6ad76b6cf0cbea7ac3ca078505623db2.html><strong>环球外汇网</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>在万众瞩目之下，为期三天的杰克逊霍尔全球央行年会将于今日起正式拉开帷幕。本次年会的主题为“展望未来十年：货币政策带来的影响”，与往年不同的是，由于新冠肺炎疫情的影响，今年的会议将在线上举行，参加此次虚拟会议的将包括各国央行行长、美联储官员、学者和一些私营部门经济学家。\n全球央行年会素有政策拐点“晴雨表”之称，因为会议上的重量级人物的意外言论往往可能会在金融市场掀起巨浪，尤其是在市场时值危机年份之际...</p>\n\n<a href=\"http://www.cnforex.com/news/html/2020/08/27/6ad76b6cf0cbea7ac3ca078505623db2.html\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b37cbfdbd9fac06fc4ae2f84ad058a92","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"source_url":"http://www.cnforex.com/news/html/2020/08/27/6ad76b6cf0cbea7ac3ca078505623db2.html","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1173213820","content_text":"在万众瞩目之下，为期三天的杰克逊霍尔全球央行年会将于今日起正式拉开帷幕。本次年会的主题为“展望未来十年：货币政策带来的影响”，与往年不同的是，由于新冠肺炎疫情的影响，今年的会议将在线上举行，参加此次虚拟会议的将包括各国央行行长、美联储官员、学者和一些私营部门经济学家。\n全球央行年会素有政策拐点“晴雨表”之称，因为会议上的重量级人物的意外言论往往可能会在金融市场掀起巨浪，尤其是在市场时值危机年份之际！2009年，美联储时任主席伯南克、日本央行时任行长白川方明和欧洲央行时任行长特里谢便利用这一年会表示，会联手应对全球金融危机。2010年、2012年和2014年，美联储分别在该年会上透露出有关量化宽松的政策信息。\n而今年，对于全球央行而言显然又是一个非常特殊的年份，在新冠肺炎疫情下，史无前例的宽松措施使得全球央行接近政策极限，全球央行就如何应对当前以及今后的挑战、如何退出超宽松政策的探讨就显得尤为重要。\n从事先发布的日程表看，美联储主席鲍威尔北京时间周四21:10将发表的题为“货币政策框架评估”的讲话，绝对是全球投资者最关注的焦点。市场有关美联储通胀目标调整、政策评估、货币政策路径的种种猜测，或许都将在此次演讲中得到解答。\n\n而除了鲍威尔，在杰克逊霍尔会议上发言的还有英国央行行长安德鲁·贝利和欧洲央行首席经济学家菲利普·莱恩。经济学家和投资者基本上预计，这两大央行将在年底前宣布出台更多的货币刺激措施，比如增加债券购买规模。\n“平均通胀制”会否问世？鲍威尔演讲成年会重中之重！\n在不少业内人士看来，今日鲍威尔的演讲可能会在通胀问题上有重大政策细节透露，而一旦预测成真，这或许将是一次“历史性的演讲”。\n自2012年美联储将通胀目标设定为2%以来，用最受美联储青睐的个人消费支出(PCE)价格指数来衡量，美国的通胀率一直位于2%下方，平均值仅为1.4%。\n通胀迟迟难以上升已成为令美联储头疼的问题。加之经济增长迟缓，意味着利率一直处于历史低位。如此一来，美联储通过利率调节来抵御经济滑坡的能力就受到限制，也就意味着危机将持续更久，破坏程度也会更为严重。\n鲍威尔预计将在本次年会上概述美联储所要采取的积极行动，来刺激通胀回到健康的水准。有分析人士猜测，作为其框架改革的一部分，美联储可能需要一个新的通胀定义框架，理想的情况是，可以同时捕捉到资产价格失控的通胀（即恶性通胀）与缓和的工资压力和实体经济价格（良好通胀）之间的巨大差异，如下图所示：\n\n即便通胀衡量方式没有全面改革，市场似乎仍确信，鲍威尔可能提出“平均通胀目标”（average inflation target，AIT）。这意味着，在央行长期以2%为健康通胀的标准之下，如果通胀长期低于这一水准，就要让通胀在一段期间内高于这一水准。自2009年中期之后，过去仅有2年曾达到过这一水准。此外，鲍威尔还将解释决定背后的想法，以及为什么负利率和收益率控制等其他选择项会被暂时搁置。\n高盛就预计，美联储主席鲍威尔将在杰克逊霍尔全球央行年会上阐释美联储的框架，透露美联储框架评估的关键结论，甚至表明美联储将采用平均通胀目标(AIT)。这意味着在经济处于或接近充分就业时，美联储的通胀目标为2-2.5%。\n美银分析师Ralph Axel指出，“目前为止，美联储每一步调整都是小心翼翼的。鲍威尔可能会在此次年会上阐述美联储调整通胀目标的具体做法，包括将设定周期通胀目标区间（比如1.5%-2.5%），或者放宽对周期内通胀水平的限制（可能放宽50-100个基点）和时间限制，以推高平均通胀率。”\n独立研究机构Evercore ISI 的全球政策和央行策略团队主管Krishna Guha日前也表示，相信鲍威尔主席将在周四的讲话中，将采取一项具有深远影响和对风险友好的举措，实现软通胀平均化；美联储将“在本周期的复苏阶段寻求适度的通胀超调”，以避免“日本化”现象发生，即以通胀疲软为标志的长期低增长。\n此外，预计美联储还会调整对待最大化就业的策略。过去官员们不愿意让失业率低于长期中性水平，因为担心过低失业率将导致通货膨胀过快上升。而如今，美联储将强调强劲的劳动力市场对经济和社会的益处。野村首席美国经济学家Lewis Alexander表示，除非出现了过高的通胀，否则美联储不会采取行动给就业市场降温，这实际上等于美联储放弃了中性失业率水平这个概念。\n一言恐定美联储数十年政策基调？金融市场屏息以待！\n自新冠肺炎疫情暴发以来，美联储努力维持零利率并通过大量购买债券来支撑美国市场和经济，但眼下美国疫情反弹，初请失业金人数超百万人，财政刺激方案却迟迟不能落地。财政政策缺位背景下，货币政策是否会受此影响走向进一步宽松，成为投资者关注的焦点。而鲍威尔的讲话将透露出美联储未来政策行动的风向。\n\n对于今晚的演讲，不少交易员指出，鲍威尔可能会无比谨慎，主要是因为调整通胀目标的影响实在太大了。根据美银利率政策研究团队的推演，如果美联储在通胀跌至谷底的情况下强行引入平均通胀目标的话，最严重的后果是——为达到平均2%的周期通胀目标，美联储可能在未来42年都无法调整利率。\n前白宫首席经济学家，现任哈佛大学教授Jason Furman则表示，“若五年后利率仍为零，我不会感到惊讶。”\n如果鲍威尔亲自登场阐述有关平均通胀目标的改革，不难想象美元将进一步承压，而黄金则将进一步大幅攀升。硅谷银行资深外汇交易员Minh Trang表示：“最令人期待的对话将是鲍威尔周四的讲话。人们预期，未来美联储在多大程度上愿意容忍更高的通胀方面可能会出现微妙的变化。”\n三菱日联全球市场研究主管Minori Uchida表示，“鲍威尔的讲话可能是一条导火索，彻底引爆美元的暴跌行情。我预计，鲍威尔将利用前瞻性指引发出鸽派信号，并谈及所谓的平均通胀目标，暗示美联储会在很长一段时间内将利率保持在低位，这会推低美元汇率。”\n至于鲍威尔言论对金价的影响，RBC Wealth Management董事总经理George Gero表示，金价涨势本周将继续，鲍威尔本周的讲话将是最值得关注的事件之一。\n道明证券认为，美联储主席鲍威尔在杰克逊霍尔的演讲或可“重振”贵金属价格。目前市场聚焦在鲍威尔周四在杰克逊霍尔研讨会的主旨演讲上。道明预计鲍威尔将实际上提前宣布货币政策框架的评估结果，即建议正式采用平均通胀目标制。美联储调整前瞻性指引并明确提出让通胀升至2%以上的做法或为贵金属价格提供支持。\n此外，花旗集团(Citi)周三发布的研究报告则指出，美联储主席鲍威尔即将发布的讲话只有较低的可能性会比市场预计的更加鸽派。\n花旗分析师表示：“我们预计只存在较低的可能性，美联储主席鲍威尔即将在央行年会上发表的将会能比市场预期的更加鸽派。我们认为讲话内容将会支持临时的通胀攀升观点，但整体通胀水平依然较低。当然了，我们也不能完全排除出现非常鸽派讲话的意外局面的风险。”\n花旗分析师补充道：“我们基本情境预期是，美元将会继续走低，欧元/美元将会上涨，美债实际收益率同样会下降，而风险资产和贵金属价格则将走高。另外还需关注的是之后美联储其他官员的讲话，尤其是美联储副主席克拉里达将在8月31日发布的讲话。”","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2393,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":308159857,"gmtCreate":1603896019779,"gmtModify":1703831189222,"author":{"id":"3561451783317866","authorId":"3561451783317866","name":"孟凡申","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/84a9935b5fe62ad89cf0468a726301a0","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"你喜欢什么样的男人？我喜欢笑起来发光的男人，你是说如来吗？","listText":"你喜欢什么样的男人？我喜欢笑起来发光的男人，你是说如来吗？","text":"你喜欢什么样的男人？我喜欢笑起来发光的男人，你是说如来吗？","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/acf30914b449d001a02d5a073664a453","width":"720","height":"1600"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/308159857","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1332,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":301353935,"gmtCreate":1603374839127,"gmtModify":1703829730580,"author":{"id":"3561451783317866","authorId":"3561451783317866","name":"孟凡申","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/84a9935b5fe62ad89cf0468a726301a0","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"只有看好未来发展趋势就可以参与。","listText":"只有看好未来发展趋势就可以参与。","text":"只有看好未来发展趋势就可以参与。","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/301353935","repostId":"2077565801","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2509,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":303686555,"gmtCreate":1603119647377,"gmtModify":1703828760878,"author":{"id":"3561451783317866","authorId":"3561451783317866","name":"孟凡申","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/84a9935b5fe62ad89cf0468a726301a0","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"资本扩张的又一阶段。","listText":"资本扩张的又一阶段。","text":"资本扩张的又一阶段。","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/303686555","repostId":"1101126748","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1522,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":300877688,"gmtCreate":1602163973744,"gmtModify":1703825984529,"author":{"id":"3561451783317866","authorId":"3561451783317866","name":"孟凡申","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/84a9935b5fe62ad89cf0468a726301a0","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"今天又是一个好日子，共同祝贺一下。","listText":"今天又是一个好日子，共同祝贺一下。","text":"今天又是一个好日子，共同祝贺一下。","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9f10401ae9e4590a17f1d4fb0f69c3f1","width":"720","height":"1304"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/300877688","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1825,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":972352638,"gmtCreate":1600121141324,"gmtModify":1703820388178,"author":{"id":"3561451783317866","authorId":"3561451783317866","name":"孟凡申","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/84a9935b5fe62ad89cf0468a726301a0","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"路过","listText":"路过","text":"路过","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/972352638","repostId":"1137461748","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1772,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":976258788,"gmtCreate":1599745580744,"gmtModify":1703819577912,"author":{"id":"3561451783317866","authorId":"3561451783317866","name":"孟凡申","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/84a9935b5fe62ad89cf0468a726301a0","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"title":"优秀的人等同于纳斯达克","htmlText":"通过这几天的内容学习了不少大咖的优秀思想理念，纳斯达克保罗的是世界上所有财富的流动资金，哪里有财富，资金量就会出现在哪里，毋庸置疑，跌的多了自然就会有有眼光的优秀的人群去发现它。","listText":"通过这几天的内容学习了不少大咖的优秀思想理念，纳斯达克保罗的是世界上所有财富的流动资金，哪里有财富，资金量就会出现在哪里，毋庸置疑，跌的多了自然就会有有眼光的优秀的人群去发现它。","text":"通过这几天的内容学习了不少大咖的优秀思想理念，纳斯达克保罗的是世界上所有财富的流动资金，哪里有财富，资金量就会出现在哪里，毋庸置疑，跌的多了自然就会有有眼光的优秀的人群去发现它。","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/97625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