BruceLee666的个人主页 - 老虎社区

BruceLee666

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2020-09-10

好

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2020-08-26

不懂

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10:13","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"农夫山泉几种中签模型推演","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2061180188","media":"智通财经网","summary":"农夫山泉不愧是水中茅台，听说网易丁磊都拿不到货，这还没开始招股就各种消息接连不断。","content":"<p><b>本文来自 微信公众号“&nbsp;懒猪捡财”。</b></p><p>农夫山泉不愧是水中茅台，听说<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NTES\">网易</a>丁磊都拿不到货，这还没开始招股就各种消息接连不断，懒猪来给大家屡屡：</p><p>首先是入场费的，东财国际都直接出海报了，可靠性应该比较强<img src=\"http://img.zhitongcaijing.com/images/contentformat/2ab67e2135d64a42caae62fc8544db1e.jpg\" tg-width=\"295\" tg-height=\"302\">按照每股30港币，一手200股，一手价格6000港币的话，甲组有18万手</p><p>接下来是估值，这个比之前听到的所有版本都高，招股的估值还不知道，不过看国配和乙组这么火爆，拿不到货的国配大佬们暗盘捞货很有可能<img src=\"http://img.zhitongcaijing.com/images/contentformat/6de70158633b5c4ac1ccefc6bcfd31c7.jpg\" tg-width=\"800\" tg-height=\"253\">最后是传言乙组最低档980万，如果这样会有很多乙组掉到甲组，那甲组会很惨<img src=\"http://img.zhitongcaijing.com/images/contentformat/2079068864ba53a95be4ac0d54805539.jpg\" tg-width=\"286\" tg-height=\"193\">基于以上比较确定的入场费，和不太确定的乙组最低档，我构思了大致有以下几种中签情况</p><p><b>第一种</b></p><p>乙组最低档真的是980万，这样很多准备融资五六百万的，将会变成甲尾，通常热门新股乙组的认购倍数是要远超甲组的，即使这样甲组的中签率也不高，加上如果很多预备的乙头掉到甲组，那甲组的惨烈情况可想而知，一手中签率5%，200手稳中1手都保守了</p><p><img src=\"http://img.zhitongcaijing.com/images/contentformat/f198eacef503441f3ba95ee8192e8036.jpg\" tg-width=\"592\" tg-height=\"133\"></p><p>但是我认为这种可能性不大，为什么?既然我们知道大致的招股价，那就可以计算出认购金额的阶梯</p><p><img src=\"http://img.zhitongcaijing.com/images/contentformat/0f99a890a641406935db3add11abe0a1.jpg\" tg-width=\"647\" tg-height=\"255\">甲尾可能性比较大的是这两个，10万股的300万资金，或者15万股的450万，然后乙头是20万股600万资金，加上中签费这些需要大概606万，当然这些阶梯是账簿管理人定的，的确可以设定没有20万股这一档，但这一档刚好是整数，不太可能跳过，合理的话是10万股然后20万股，还没遇到过跳过直接到30万股的，所以我觉得可能性不大。</p><p>当然如果入场费变了，那可能性就比较大了，最近一个乙头900多万的是<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/06958\">正荣服务</a>，这种情况出现的话乙头会吊打甲尾，乙头门槛提高筛掉了很多人，竞争小了<img src=\"http://img.zhitongcaijing.com/images/contentformat/6c2e367c29a8a2b31f0b75a7f8a7d992.jpg\" tg-width=\"704\" tg-height=\"122\"><img src=\"http://img.zhitongcaijing.com/images/contentformat/956402d5085b3a429fd4bd31a0151ada.jpg\" tg-width=\"711\" tg-height=\"176\">比较常见的情况是甲尾和乙头中签率接近，甚至甲尾要好乙头一些，所以我才说像正荣服务这种情况很少见，但也不是没有，历史数据仅做参考<img src=\"http://img.zhitongcaijing.com/images/contentformat/f95d792086082687b81410bf76e1adde.jpg\" tg-width=\"389\" tg-height=\"391\"></p><p>是否900多万才能上乙组，招股第一天就能知道了。</p><p>说完第一种，我觉得可能性不大外，我个人觉得第二、第三种情况可能性比较大，也就是乙头正常在600万这一档。</p><p>这样乙组竞争会很激烈，乙头预计最后只能分配到2万左右的市值，还要计息10天，扣掉6千多利息，30%左右的打和点</p><p>这样乙头效益不高，相反我对甲组比较乐观，为什么?</p><p>因为货多，按照一手6千港币，这次甲组有18万手，看下之前几次热门股的情况：</p><p>欧康维视生物，35万人申购，甲组5万手，一手中签率5%，300手稳中1手</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/09997\">康基医疗</a>，41万人申购，甲组11万手，一手中签率9%，90手稳中1手</p><p>沛嘉医疗，28万人申购，甲组4万手，一手中签率8.5%，200手稳中1手</p><p>农夫山泉这次虽然人数会增加，大概率超过50万人，但货是之前的2-3倍，所以中签率不至于太差，像康基医疗，就相对好一些。</p><p>再来看几个货多但一手中签率比较低的新股：</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/300347\">泰格医药</a>，32万人申购，甲组11万手，一手中签率5%，60手稳中1手</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JD\">京东</a>集团，40万人申购，甲组16万手，一手中签率10%，40手稳中1手</p><p>这几个的特征就是，一手中签率低，没怎么分配给一手党，但是毕竟货那么多放在那，所以稳中1手不难</p><p>所以这次农夫山泉中签率我构思了两个版本：</p><p><b>第二种</b></p><p>比较照顾一手党，一手中签率10%-15%，相对比较难稳中1手，要150起，甚至200手起。</p><p><b>第三种</b></p><p>不照顾一手党，一手中签率5%-10%，但是货比较多的情况下，比较容易稳中1手，150手以内，甚至100手以内。</p><p>所以只要第一天招股确认乙组最低门槛不是980万，我对甲组还是比较乐观，至于是大甲还是小甲，我觉得都要配置，有些券商甲组支持20倍而且相对额度比较充足，比如华泰、东吴、华赢这些，就适合做大甲，放5-8万，每次能认购到150万以上，接近稳中1手，剩下的一些10倍杠杆的，就放1-2万做小甲。</p><p>这次的小甲我认为也是可以融资申购的，一两万融资十倍也能认购到20手以上，中签率应该能接近20%，期望收益也是正的，只要账户多能拉平概率，肉一样有。</p><p>现在港股打新已经进水深水区，小白一两个账户靠运气很难赚到钱，已经到了需要精耕细作，合理资金布局的阶段。</p>","source":"highlight_zhitongcaijin","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" 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.h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n农夫山泉几种中签模型推演\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2020-08-24 10:13 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/329791.html><strong>智通财经网</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>本文来自 微信公众号“ 懒猪捡财”。农夫山泉不愧是水中茅台，听说网易丁磊都拿不到货，这还没开始招股就各种消息接连不断，懒猪来给大家屡屡：首先是入场费的，东财国际都直接出海报了，可靠性应该比较强按照每股30港币，一手200股，一手价格6000港币的话，甲组有18万手接下来是估值，这个比之前听到的所有版本都高，招股的估值还不知道，不过看国配和乙组这么火爆，拿不到货的国配大佬们暗盘捞货很有可能最后是传言...</p>\n\n<a href=\"http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/329791.html\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://img.zhitongcaijing.com/image/20200824/20200824071744_93854.png?x-oss-process=image/format,jpg/quality,Q_80","relate_stocks":{"09633":"农夫山泉"},"source_url":"http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/329791.html","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/6ca2dcdccfa2217fb20a0351f4efe814","article_id":"2061180188","content_text":"本文来自 微信公众号“ 懒猪捡财”。农夫山泉不愧是水中茅台，听说网易丁磊都拿不到货，这还没开始招股就各种消息接连不断，懒猪来给大家屡屡：首先是入场费的，东财国际都直接出海报了，可靠性应该比较强按照每股30港币，一手200股，一手价格6000港币的话，甲组有18万手接下来是估值，这个比之前听到的所有版本都高，招股的估值还不知道，不过看国配和乙组这么火爆，拿不到货的国配大佬们暗盘捞货很有可能最后是传言乙组最低档980万，如果这样会有很多乙组掉到甲组，那甲组会很惨基于以上比较确定的入场费，和不太确定的乙组最低档，我构思了大致有以下几种中签情况第一种乙组最低档真的是980万，这样很多准备融资五六百万的，将会变成甲尾，通常热门新股乙组的认购倍数是要远超甲组的，即使这样甲组的中签率也不高，加上如果很多预备的乙头掉到甲组，那甲组的惨烈情况可想而知，一手中签率5%，200手稳中1手都保守了但是我认为这种可能性不大，为什么?既然我们知道大致的招股价，那就可以计算出认购金额的阶梯甲尾可能性比较大的是这两个，10万股的300万资金，或者15万股的450万，然后乙头是20万股600万资金，加上中签费这些需要大概606万，当然这些阶梯是账簿管理人定的，的确可以设定没有20万股这一档，但这一档刚好是整数，不太可能跳过，合理的话是10万股然后20万股，还没遇到过跳过直接到30万股的，所以我觉得可能性不大。当然如果入场费变了，那可能性就比较大了，最近一个乙头900多万的是正荣服务，这种情况出现的话乙头会吊打甲尾，乙头门槛提高筛掉了很多人，竞争小了比较常见的情况是甲尾和乙头中签率接近，甚至甲尾要好乙头一些，所以我才说像正荣服务这种情况很少见，但也不是没有，历史数据仅做参考是否900多万才能上乙组，招股第一天就能知道了。说完第一种，我觉得可能性不大外，我个人觉得第二、第三种情况可能性比较大，也就是乙头正常在600万这一档。这样乙组竞争会很激烈，乙头预计最后只能分配到2万左右的市值，还要计息10天，扣掉6千多利息，30%左右的打和点这样乙头效益不高，相反我对甲组比较乐观，为什么?因为货多，按照一手6千港币，这次甲组有18万手，看下之前几次热门股的情况：欧康维视生物，35万人申购，甲组5万手，一手中签率5%，300手稳中1手康基医疗，41万人申购，甲组11万手，一手中签率9%，90手稳中1手沛嘉医疗，28万人申购，甲组4万手，一手中签率8.5%，200手稳中1手农夫山泉这次虽然人数会增加，大概率超过50万人，但货是之前的2-3倍，所以中签率不至于太差，像康基医疗，就相对好一些。再来看几个货多但一手中签率比较低的新股：泰格医药，32万人申购，甲组11万手，一手中签率5%，60手稳中1手京东集团，40万人申购，甲组16万手，一手中签率10%，40手稳中1手这几个的特征就是，一手中签率低，没怎么分配给一手党，但是毕竟货那么多放在那，所以稳中1手不难所以这次农夫山泉中签率我构思了两个版本：第二种比较照顾一手党，一手中签率10%-15%，相对比较难稳中1手，要150起，甚至200手起。第三种不照顾一手党，一手中签率5%-10%，但是货比较多的情况下，比较容易稳中1手，150手以内，甚至100手以内。所以只要第一天招股确认乙组最低门槛不是980万，我对甲组还是比较乐观，至于是大甲还是小甲，我觉得都要配置，有些券商甲组支持20倍而且相对额度比较充足，比如华泰、东吴、华赢这些，就适合做大甲，放5-8万，每次能认购到150万以上，接近稳中1手，剩下的一些10倍杠杆的，就放1-2万做小甲。这次的小甲我认为也是可以融资申购的，一两万融资十倍也能认购到20手以上，中签率应该能接近20%，期望收益也是正的，只要账户多能拉平概率，肉一样有。现在港股打新已经进水深水区，小白一两个账户靠运气很难赚到钱，已经到了需要精耕细作，合理资金布局的阶段。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1152,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}