chirsj的个人主页 - 老虎社区

chirsj

chirsj

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2023-08-15

牛市来了

恐惧还是贪婪？港股反击时刻或来临！ "技术性牛市"夯实底部，后市这样走

2023-08-09

$李宁(02331)$ 明天财报见老同志

2023-07-25

$谷歌(GOOG)$ 空空空非常差

2023-07-25

$国企指数(HSCEI)$ 回光返照啦，哈哈

2023-07-19

哈哈魔怔人加息等于没加，希望你孩子身体健康，或者说你的脑子能够恢复正常，不用天天混混呃呃呃呃呃呃呃呃的，没钱我可以指导你两下。

科技股领涨风险资产，散户大军卷土重来，什么信号？

2023-06-26

看到这些人开始唱多就是该卖了

热点观察 | 好兆头！上半年股市的狂飙，都是下半年惊喜的铺垫

2023-06-20

$美元/离岸人民币(USDCNH.FOREX)$ 结束了

2023-02-16

$微软(MSFT)$ 经过使用，如果加上midjorniy对于艺术设计基本产生质的飞跃。我工作两年做出来的设计一时间分不出来。。如果能够经过特别训练可以完全代替本人做设计前期的构思。当然对于很多东西上缺少参数这种直接东西。。。问题也有好多，但是如果他日夜不停的学习，或许用不了多久就会优化成为超出我意料之外的东西，犹如当年的AlphaGo一般打败围棋成为不可能的存在。

2022-05-10

$Desktop Metal Inc.(DM)$gg

2022-04-23

$Desktop Metal Inc.(DM)$希望是底了我想可以看看，如果到2了，就是天命所归

2022-04-07

$Desktop Metal Inc.(DM)$去年我看煤炭他变成1美元时我没上车，前年我看到amc到3美元时我下了车，我看到铁，铝的飞涨。他们从一个不可能的地方一下飞上天。有些后悔没能钓到他们，现在我想抓一条大鱼。

2022-03-31

$Desktop Metal Inc.(DM)$希望还能再回到3.8上次买少了，这次多买点

2022-01-20

$Desktop Metal Inc.(DM)$如果真的到1了真的是各位的财神

2021-12-31

$Desktop Metal Inc.(DM)$到5块了看情况我希望还能继续横盘2个月就好

2021-12-17

$Desktop Metal Inc.(DM)$反正还有的跌各位别急入场后面还有大肉吃

2021-12-15

$Desktop Metal Inc.(DM)$到5块再看看希望能空到5块

2021-11-28

$Desktop Metal Inc.(DM)$如果这股票能到1元那是在座各位的福分

2021-11-24

$Desktop Metal Inc.(DM)$等

2021-11-18

$Desktop Metal Inc.(DM)$再等等希望这次下探到5

2021-11-16

$Desktop Metal Inc.(DM)$不急不急再看看今天要是买了那你还得等很久

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Text":"牛市来了","listText":"牛市来了","text":"牛市来了","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/209096921125048","repostId":"1145351419","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1145351419","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"致力于提供最及时的财经资讯，最专业的解读分析，覆盖宏观经济、金融机构、A股市场、上市公司、投资理财等财经领域。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"券商中国","id":"9","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d482d56459984e8c86a6a137295b3c4f"},"pubTimestamp":1692057935,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1145351419?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2023-08-15 08:05","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"恐惧还是贪婪？港股反击时刻或来临！ \"技术性牛市\"夯实底部，后市这样走","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1145351419","media":"券商中国","summary":"华夏基金指出，当前港股风险溢价已达到7.3%的水平，市场情绪已经演绎得比较充分，未来可能迎来反转。和其他股指相比，港股在历次大跌中的跌幅都较大，但大跌结束后反弹的力度也更强，特别在三个月至六个月的中期时间维度上，呈现出高弹性的特点。除了宽基指数外，华福证券还统计了港股、A股和美股各行业指数在大跌结束行情反转时的表现。若未来国内政策预期继续升温，预计将吸引内外资流入港股市场。","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>尽管行情偶有震荡，港股科技板块仍是近期不可多得的一抹红色——自5月末的短期低位至今，恒生科技指数悄然间走出了“技术性”牛市，虽然近几个交易日略有回撤，但在各项利好的加持下，以及长期回撤后凸显出的估值优势，多项数据悉数表明：沉寂许久的港股似乎已经“到底”了。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">不仅如此，港股强大的韧性在历史行情中已经得到了多次检验，数十年来纵观全球市场多次起伏，港股在大跌结束后反弹的力度较其他市场更强，特别在三个月至六个月的中期时间维度上，呈现出高弹性的特点。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">当前，在ETF总规模逼近两万亿关口、数量达到近千只时，恒生科技指数ETF（513180）正成为投资者的“加购”之选，这只汇集了理想汽车、腾讯控股以及中芯国际等科技龙头的ETF自诞生伊始份额就持续增长，两年多时间内从不到15亿份增至如今的341亿份，不仅一跃成为第三大跨境型ETF产品，也让低位时抄底或坚守的投资者收获颇丰。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">随着中报季来临，截至发稿，恒生科技指数前三大权重股的业绩预告均实现“报喜”。华夏基金认为，港股科技板块有望迎来预期的重新调整，前期受压制的部分公司有望在较好的业绩和运营数据、以及利空因素的出清作用下迎来新一波估值修复行情，港股科技板块价格中枢有望得到抬升。</p><p><strong>“技术性牛市”夯实底部</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">近期，在多重利好加持下，港股以及其中的科技板块率先回应并表现不俗，7月，恒生指数单月上涨超6%，恒生科技板块更是领涨全球，“受益”于低基数，该指数自5月末至今一度涨超22%，虽上涨过程中略有波折，但长期回温的趋势已隐隐浮现。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">数据统计，截至8月13日，恒生科技指数市盈率为26.22倍，市净率为2.57倍，分别为10年以来4.43%和20.25%的分位点，估值依旧在“地板价”徘徊。华夏基金也认为，拉长视野看，港股目前已处于极低的位置。恒生指数处于360月均线支撑位，此前不久历史上首次跌破360个月均线。即使在1998年亚洲金融风暴、2008年金融危机时期，也未曾触及360月均线，进一步下行的空间较为有限。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c8de4b5f99b6ad2bae7d4d2703ee4e63\" alt=\" 数据来源：Wind，2023.07\" title=\" 数据来源：Wind，2023.07\" tg-width=\"642\" tg-height=\"218\"/><span> 数据来源：Wind，2023.07</span></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">此外，中信证券从风险溢价这一指标入手分析认为，港股已经“到底”了——研报指出，历史上港股ERP突破或接近10%的时候，往往意味着港股市场的悲观情绪演绎到极致，随即迎来情绪修复带来的底部反转。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8d47da276126995108206e94842665c0\" alt=\"数据来源：Wind，中信建投证券、华夏基金，截至2023.6.30。恒生指数股权风险溢价（ERP）取1/恒指PE-美债十年期收益率。\" title=\"数据来源：Wind，中信建投证券、华夏基金，截至2023.6.30。恒生指数股权风险溢价（ERP）取1/恒指PE-美债十年期收益率。\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"392\"/><span>数据来源：Wind，中信建投证券、华夏基金，截至2023.6.30。恒生指数股权风险溢价（ERP）取1/恒指PE-美债十年期收益率。</span></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">华夏基金指出，当前港股风险溢价已达到7.3%的水平，市场情绪已经演绎得比较充分，未来可能迎来反转。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">不仅如此，港股强大的韧性在历史行情中已经得到了多次检验：华福证券回顾了1970年以来全球股市数次大跌结束后主要股票指数的行情走势，时间包括1973年（第一次石油危机）、1987年（黑色星期一）、1998年（东南亚金融危机）、2000年（互联网泡沫破灭）、2008年（全球金融危机）和2020年（疫情）。和其他股指相比，港股在历次大跌中的跌幅都较大，但大跌结束后反弹的力度也更强，特别在三个月至六个月的中期时间维度上，呈现出高弹性的特点。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">除了宽基指数外，华福证券还统计了港股、A股和美股各行业指数在大跌结束行情反转时的表现。港股中具有高成长属性的行业，如信息技术等板块在历次行情反转中的涨幅均排名靠前。</p><p><strong>成份个股业绩造好</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">有机构分析认为，进入8月港股开始调整，或是因为市场博弈政策预期的重点从此前的政策出台转变到政策落地的强度和具体方向上，即下半年国内经济复苏的韧性到底如何。短期国内经济复苏的内生动能仍较反复，资金大举回流仍然需要等待实际政策落地情况及经济数据持续改善。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">“此外，未来指数和估值扩张的持续性同时也取决于盈利预期能否接棒，即接下来港股上市企业盈利增速的弹性如何。”</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">随着8月来临，上市公司中考成绩渐次披露，市场的担忧正逐步被验证为“杞人忧天”。从业绩预告来看，恒生科技指数ETF（513180）内几大权重股上半年均“报喜”。第一大权重股理想汽车Q2维持盈利，季度营收、交付量等方面均创下历史新高；阿里巴巴今年4-6月核心业绩超预期；快手实现扭亏为盈，其他公司或同样迎业绩改善。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">华夏基金认为，随着业绩期的结束，港股科技板块有望迎来预期的重新调整，前期受压制的部分公司有望在较好的业绩和运营数据、以及利空因素的出清作用下迎来新一波估值修复行情，港股科技板块价格中枢有望得到抬升。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">从多家机构近期的后市展望来看，在历经底部回温后，有业内人士表示对于港股可以更加乐观：一方面是前述利好港股的海内外积极因素浮现，市场风险偏好或将有所修复；另一方面是港股目前下行空间确实有限，价格低于价值的资产在市场上升的周期中有望得到较大的修正。目前市场普遍认为，政策底、情绪底已经基本确定，未来的方向判断趋于稳定，市场底或已不远。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">此前中信证券测算，恒生综指2023年净利润与营业收入增速分别达20.7%与8.2%，且Q2业绩预测的上修主要受居民出行及消费复苏利好的相关行业推动。而涉及本地生活（外卖、游戏、影视）、异地出行（OTA）、可选消费（电商）等领域的平台企业也将随着消费的回暖在业绩上逐步改善。此外，经济的复苏也将有望提升企业开支，互联网公司广告收入或得到提振。</p><p><strong>南下资金抢筹意愿浓厚</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">虽然行情偶有波折，但近期资金南下的抢筹意愿十分浓厚，无论是上涨时的“加购”还是回撤时的加仓均态度坚决，时隔两年多，单日涌入百亿的盛况重现——在7月19日与6月5日，南下资金分别买入164亿元与108亿元，上一次如此热情还要追溯到两年前，彼时尚处于“跨过香江夺取定价权”的牛市盛宴中。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">此外，南向资金对港股市场的渗透力度仍在加强。今年以来港股通累计净流入1608亿港元，截至二季度末南下资金持仓市值合计2.02万亿元，持股比例为8.17%，环比提高0.21个百分点。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">而在南下资金的行业配置中，权重排在前三的是资讯科技业、金融业及非必需性消费行业，二季度末分别为25.55%、22.07%及10.32%，环比分别提高-1.44个、1.37个及-1.04个百分点。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">ETF资金流向也是重要指标之一。年内被加仓超过10亿份的13只ETF基金中，港股主题的产品有10只，其中华夏基金旗下的恒生互联网ETF（513330）与恒生科技指数ETF（513180）分别被加仓超160亿份与34亿份。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">华夏基金认为，南向资金的大额买入，表明投资者对香港市场的信心回升，积极寻求资产的多元化配置，在当前时点，从各类估值指标来看，港股主要指数均已处于历史低位，港股资产的低位价值凸显，进一步下行的空间有限。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">国泰君安研报指出，南向资金坚守价值股且加大流入成长股，外资中介资金偏向净流入价值股。若未来国内政策预期继续升温，预计将吸引内外资流入港股市场。</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>恐惧还是贪婪？港股反击时刻或来临！ \"技术性牛市\"夯实底部，后市这样走</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n恐惧还是贪婪？港股反击时刻或来临！ \"技术性牛市\"夯实底部，后市这样走\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/9\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/d482d56459984e8c86a6a137295b3c4f);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">券商中国 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2023-08-15 08:05</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><p>尽管行情偶有震荡，港股科技板块仍是近期不可多得的一抹红色——自5月末的短期低位至今，恒生科技指数悄然间走出了“技术性”牛市，虽然近几个交易日略有回撤，但在各项利好的加持下，以及长期回撤后凸显出的估值优势，多项数据悉数表明：沉寂许久的港股似乎已经“到底”了。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">不仅如此，港股强大的韧性在历史行情中已经得到了多次检验，数十年来纵观全球市场多次起伏，港股在大跌结束后反弹的力度较其他市场更强，特别在三个月至六个月的中期时间维度上，呈现出高弹性的特点。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">当前，在ETF总规模逼近两万亿关口、数量达到近千只时，恒生科技指数ETF（513180）正成为投资者的“加购”之选，这只汇集了理想汽车、腾讯控股以及中芯国际等科技龙头的ETF自诞生伊始份额就持续增长，两年多时间内从不到15亿份增至如今的341亿份，不仅一跃成为第三大跨境型ETF产品，也让低位时抄底或坚守的投资者收获颇丰。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">随着中报季来临，截至发稿，恒生科技指数前三大权重股的业绩预告均实现“报喜”。华夏基金认为，港股科技板块有望迎来预期的重新调整，前期受压制的部分公司有望在较好的业绩和运营数据、以及利空因素的出清作用下迎来新一波估值修复行情，港股科技板块价格中枢有望得到抬升。</p><p><strong>“技术性牛市”夯实底部</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">近期，在多重利好加持下，港股以及其中的科技板块率先回应并表现不俗，7月，恒生指数单月上涨超6%，恒生科技板块更是领涨全球，“受益”于低基数，该指数自5月末至今一度涨超22%，虽上涨过程中略有波折，但长期回温的趋势已隐隐浮现。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">数据统计，截至8月13日，恒生科技指数市盈率为26.22倍，市净率为2.57倍，分别为10年以来4.43%和20.25%的分位点，估值依旧在“地板价”徘徊。华夏基金也认为，拉长视野看，港股目前已处于极低的位置。恒生指数处于360月均线支撑位，此前不久历史上首次跌破360个月均线。即使在1998年亚洲金融风暴、2008年金融危机时期，也未曾触及360月均线，进一步下行的空间较为有限。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c8de4b5f99b6ad2bae7d4d2703ee4e63\" alt=\" 数据来源：Wind，2023.07\" title=\" 数据来源：Wind，2023.07\" tg-width=\"642\" tg-height=\"218\"/><span> 数据来源：Wind，2023.07</span></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">此外，中信证券从风险溢价这一指标入手分析认为，港股已经“到底”了——研报指出，历史上港股ERP突破或接近10%的时候，往往意味着港股市场的悲观情绪演绎到极致，随即迎来情绪修复带来的底部反转。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8d47da276126995108206e94842665c0\" alt=\"数据来源：Wind，中信建投证券、华夏基金，截至2023.6.30。恒生指数股权风险溢价（ERP）取1/恒指PE-美债十年期收益率。\" title=\"数据来源：Wind，中信建投证券、华夏基金，截至2023.6.30。恒生指数股权风险溢价（ERP）取1/恒指PE-美债十年期收益率。\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"392\"/><span>数据来源：Wind，中信建投证券、华夏基金，截至2023.6.30。恒生指数股权风险溢价（ERP）取1/恒指PE-美债十年期收益率。</span></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">华夏基金指出，当前港股风险溢价已达到7.3%的水平，市场情绪已经演绎得比较充分，未来可能迎来反转。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">不仅如此，港股强大的韧性在历史行情中已经得到了多次检验：华福证券回顾了1970年以来全球股市数次大跌结束后主要股票指数的行情走势，时间包括1973年（第一次石油危机）、1987年（黑色星期一）、1998年（东南亚金融危机）、2000年（互联网泡沫破灭）、2008年（全球金融危机）和2020年（疫情）。和其他股指相比，港股在历次大跌中的跌幅都较大，但大跌结束后反弹的力度也更强，特别在三个月至六个月的中期时间维度上，呈现出高弹性的特点。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">除了宽基指数外，华福证券还统计了港股、A股和美股各行业指数在大跌结束行情反转时的表现。港股中具有高成长属性的行业，如信息技术等板块在历次行情反转中的涨幅均排名靠前。</p><p><strong>成份个股业绩造好</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">有机构分析认为，进入8月港股开始调整，或是因为市场博弈政策预期的重点从此前的政策出台转变到政策落地的强度和具体方向上，即下半年国内经济复苏的韧性到底如何。短期国内经济复苏的内生动能仍较反复，资金大举回流仍然需要等待实际政策落地情况及经济数据持续改善。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">“此外，未来指数和估值扩张的持续性同时也取决于盈利预期能否接棒，即接下来港股上市企业盈利增速的弹性如何。”</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">随着8月来临，上市公司中考成绩渐次披露，市场的担忧正逐步被验证为“杞人忧天”。从业绩预告来看，恒生科技指数ETF（513180）内几大权重股上半年均“报喜”。第一大权重股理想汽车Q2维持盈利，季度营收、交付量等方面均创下历史新高；阿里巴巴今年4-6月核心业绩超预期；快手实现扭亏为盈，其他公司或同样迎业绩改善。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">华夏基金认为，随着业绩期的结束，港股科技板块有望迎来预期的重新调整，前期受压制的部分公司有望在较好的业绩和运营数据、以及利空因素的出清作用下迎来新一波估值修复行情，港股科技板块价格中枢有望得到抬升。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">从多家机构近期的后市展望来看，在历经底部回温后，有业内人士表示对于港股可以更加乐观：一方面是前述利好港股的海内外积极因素浮现，市场风险偏好或将有所修复；另一方面是港股目前下行空间确实有限，价格低于价值的资产在市场上升的周期中有望得到较大的修正。目前市场普遍认为，政策底、情绪底已经基本确定，未来的方向判断趋于稳定，市场底或已不远。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">此前中信证券测算，恒生综指2023年净利润与营业收入增速分别达20.7%与8.2%，且Q2业绩预测的上修主要受居民出行及消费复苏利好的相关行业推动。而涉及本地生活（外卖、游戏、影视）、异地出行（OTA）、可选消费（电商）等领域的平台企业也将随着消费的回暖在业绩上逐步改善。此外，经济的复苏也将有望提升企业开支，互联网公司广告收入或得到提振。</p><p><strong>南下资金抢筹意愿浓厚</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">虽然行情偶有波折，但近期资金南下的抢筹意愿十分浓厚，无论是上涨时的“加购”还是回撤时的加仓均态度坚决，时隔两年多，单日涌入百亿的盛况重现——在7月19日与6月5日，南下资金分别买入164亿元与108亿元，上一次如此热情还要追溯到两年前，彼时尚处于“跨过香江夺取定价权”的牛市盛宴中。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">此外，南向资金对港股市场的渗透力度仍在加强。今年以来港股通累计净流入1608亿港元，截至二季度末南下资金持仓市值合计2.02万亿元，持股比例为8.17%，环比提高0.21个百分点。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">而在南下资金的行业配置中，权重排在前三的是资讯科技业、金融业及非必需性消费行业，二季度末分别为25.55%、22.07%及10.32%，环比分别提高-1.44个、1.37个及-1.04个百分点。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">ETF资金流向也是重要指标之一。年内被加仓超过10亿份的13只ETF基金中，港股主题的产品有10只，其中华夏基金旗下的恒生互联网ETF（513330）与恒生科技指数ETF（513180）分别被加仓超160亿份与34亿份。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">华夏基金认为，南向资金的大额买入，表明投资者对香港市场的信心回升，积极寻求资产的多元化配置，在当前时点，从各类估值指标来看，港股主要指数均已处于历史低位，港股资产的低位价值凸显，进一步下行的空间有限。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">国泰君安研报指出，南向资金坚守价值股且加大流入成长股，外资中介资金偏向净流入价值股。若未来国内政策预期继续升温，预计将吸引内外资流入港股市场。</p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8979081646285529bf015e19c9bc6b37","relate_stocks":{"HSTECH":"恒生科技指数","HSI":"恒生指数"},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1145351419","content_text":"尽管行情偶有震荡，港股科技板块仍是近期不可多得的一抹红色——自5月末的短期低位至今，恒生科技指数悄然间走出了“技术性”牛市，虽然近几个交易日略有回撤，但在各项利好的加持下，以及长期回撤后凸显出的估值优势，多项数据悉数表明：沉寂许久的港股似乎已经“到底”了。不仅如此，港股强大的韧性在历史行情中已经得到了多次检验，数十年来纵观全球市场多次起伏，港股在大跌结束后反弹的力度较其他市场更强，特别在三个月至六个月的中期时间维度上，呈现出高弹性的特点。当前，在ETF总规模逼近两万亿关口、数量达到近千只时，恒生科技指数ETF（513180）正成为投资者的“加购”之选，这只汇集了理想汽车、腾讯控股以及中芯国际等科技龙头的ETF自诞生伊始份额就持续增长，两年多时间内从不到15亿份增至如今的341亿份，不仅一跃成为第三大跨境型ETF产品，也让低位时抄底或坚守的投资者收获颇丰。随着中报季来临，截至发稿，恒生科技指数前三大权重股的业绩预告均实现“报喜”。华夏基金认为，港股科技板块有望迎来预期的重新调整，前期受压制的部分公司有望在较好的业绩和运营数据、以及利空因素的出清作用下迎来新一波估值修复行情，港股科技板块价格中枢有望得到抬升。“技术性牛市”夯实底部近期，在多重利好加持下，港股以及其中的科技板块率先回应并表现不俗，7月，恒生指数单月上涨超6%，恒生科技板块更是领涨全球，“受益”于低基数，该指数自5月末至今一度涨超22%，虽上涨过程中略有波折，但长期回温的趋势已隐隐浮现。数据统计，截至8月13日，恒生科技指数市盈率为26.22倍，市净率为2.57倍，分别为10年以来4.43%和20.25%的分位点，估值依旧在“地板价”徘徊。华夏基金也认为，拉长视野看，港股目前已处于极低的位置。恒生指数处于360月均线支撑位，此前不久历史上首次跌破360个月均线。即使在1998年亚洲金融风暴、2008年金融危机时期，也未曾触及360月均线，进一步下行的空间较为有限。 数据来源：Wind，2023.07此外，中信证券从风险溢价这一指标入手分析认为，港股已经“到底”了——研报指出，历史上港股ERP突破或接近10%的时候，往往意味着港股市场的悲观情绪演绎到极致，随即迎来情绪修复带来的底部反转。数据来源：Wind，中信建投证券、华夏基金，截至2023.6.30。恒生指数股权风险溢价（ERP）取1/恒指PE-美债十年期收益率。华夏基金指出，当前港股风险溢价已达到7.3%的水平，市场情绪已经演绎得比较充分，未来可能迎来反转。不仅如此，港股强大的韧性在历史行情中已经得到了多次检验：华福证券回顾了1970年以来全球股市数次大跌结束后主要股票指数的行情走势，时间包括1973年（第一次石油危机）、1987年（黑色星期一）、1998年（东南亚金融危机）、2000年（互联网泡沫破灭）、2008年（全球金融危机）和2020年（疫情）。和其他股指相比，港股在历次大跌中的跌幅都较大，但大跌结束后反弹的力度也更强，特别在三个月至六个月的中期时间维度上，呈现出高弹性的特点。除了宽基指数外，华福证券还统计了港股、A股和美股各行业指数在大跌结束行情反转时的表现。港股中具有高成长属性的行业，如信息技术等板块在历次行情反转中的涨幅均排名靠前。成份个股业绩造好有机构分析认为，进入8月港股开始调整，或是因为市场博弈政策预期的重点从此前的政策出台转变到政策落地的强度和具体方向上，即下半年国内经济复苏的韧性到底如何。短期国内经济复苏的内生动能仍较反复，资金大举回流仍然需要等待实际政策落地情况及经济数据持续改善。“此外，未来指数和估值扩张的持续性同时也取决于盈利预期能否接棒，即接下来港股上市企业盈利增速的弹性如何。”随着8月来临，上市公司中考成绩渐次披露，市场的担忧正逐步被验证为“杞人忧天”。从业绩预告来看，恒生科技指数ETF（513180）内几大权重股上半年均“报喜”。第一大权重股理想汽车Q2维持盈利，季度营收、交付量等方面均创下历史新高；阿里巴巴今年4-6月核心业绩超预期；快手实现扭亏为盈，其他公司或同样迎业绩改善。华夏基金认为，随着业绩期的结束，港股科技板块有望迎来预期的重新调整，前期受压制的部分公司有望在较好的业绩和运营数据、以及利空因素的出清作用下迎来新一波估值修复行情，港股科技板块价格中枢有望得到抬升。从多家机构近期的后市展望来看，在历经底部回温后，有业内人士表示对于港股可以更加乐观：一方面是前述利好港股的海内外积极因素浮现，市场风险偏好或将有所修复；另一方面是港股目前下行空间确实有限，价格低于价值的资产在市场上升的周期中有望得到较大的修正。目前市场普遍认为，政策底、情绪底已经基本确定，未来的方向判断趋于稳定，市场底或已不远。此前中信证券测算，恒生综指2023年净利润与营业收入增速分别达20.7%与8.2%，且Q2业绩预测的上修主要受居民出行及消费复苏利好的相关行业推动。而涉及本地生活（外卖、游戏、影视）、异地出行（OTA）、可选消费（电商）等领域的平台企业也将随着消费的回暖在业绩上逐步改善。此外，经济的复苏也将有望提升企业开支，互联网公司广告收入或得到提振。南下资金抢筹意愿浓厚虽然行情偶有波折，但近期资金南下的抢筹意愿十分浓厚，无论是上涨时的“加购”还是回撤时的加仓均态度坚决，时隔两年多，单日涌入百亿的盛况重现——在7月19日与6月5日，南下资金分别买入164亿元与108亿元，上一次如此热情还要追溯到两年前，彼时尚处于“跨过香江夺取定价权”的牛市盛宴中。此外，南向资金对港股市场的渗透力度仍在加强。今年以来港股通累计净流入1608亿港元，截至二季度末南下资金持仓市值合计2.02万亿元，持股比例为8.17%，环比提高0.21个百分点。而在南下资金的行业配置中，权重排在前三的是资讯科技业、金融业及非必需性消费行业，二季度末分别为25.55%、22.07%及10.32%，环比分别提高-1.44个、1.37个及-1.04个百分点。ETF资金流向也是重要指标之一。年内被加仓超过10亿份的13只ETF基金中，港股主题的产品有10只，其中华夏基金旗下的恒生互联网ETF（513330）与恒生科技指数ETF（513180）分别被加仓超160亿份与34亿份。华夏基金认为，南向资金的大额买入，表明投资者对香港市场的信心回升，积极寻求资产的多元化配置，在当前时点，从各类估值指标来看，港股主要指数均已处于历史低位，港股资产的低位价值凸显，进一步下行的空间有限。国泰君安研报指出，南向资金坚守价值股且加大流入成长股，外资中介资金偏向净流入价值股。若未来国内政策预期继续升温，预计将吸引内外资流入港股市场。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":910,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":206926336581688,"gmtCreate":1691548603075,"gmtModify":1691548604060,"author":{"id":"3560312943951686","authorId":"3560312943951686","name":"chirsj","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/78695435fff9536bbc2367a87cd732b0","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3560312943951686","authorIdStr":"3560312943951686"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a 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回光返照啦，哈哈","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/201764919599160","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2583,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":199618636509200,"gmtCreate":1689776568254,"gmtModify":1689776570177,"author":{"id":"3560312943951686","authorId":"3560312943951686","name":"chirsj","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/78695435fff9536bbc2367a87cd732b0","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3560312943951686","authorIdStr":"3560312943951686"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"哈哈&nbsp; 魔怔人加息等于没加，希望你孩子身体健康，或者说你的脑子能够恢复正常，不用天天混混呃呃呃呃呃呃呃呃的，没钱我可以指导你两下。","listText":"哈哈&nbsp; 魔怔人加息等于没加，希望你孩子身体健康，或者说你的脑子能够恢复正常，不用天天混混呃呃呃呃呃呃呃呃的，没钱我可以指导你两下。","text":"哈哈 魔怔人加息等于没加，希望你孩子身体健康，或者说你的脑子能够恢复正常，不用天天混混呃呃呃呃呃呃呃呃的，没钱我可以指导你两下。","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/199618636509200","repostId":"1143362679","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1143362679","pubTimestamp":1689775478,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1143362679?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2023-07-19 22:04","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"科技股领涨风险资产，散户大军卷土重来，什么信号？","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1143362679","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"狂欢可能不会持续太久。","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>作者：常嘉帅</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">美股二季度财报季紧随着疲软的经济数据如期揭幕。对火热的股市而言，美联储的鹰声如耳旁风。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">事实上，仔细观察今日的美股，不难发现，美联储加息基本算是白加，2022年的熊市已经远去，市场已重回2021年的狂热。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">主要信号有两个：1）狂欢式上涨的科技股；2）卷土重来的散户大军。这一切如2021年重现，但当时随之而来的是惨烈的大跌。</p><h2 id=\"id_1207524829\" style=\"text-align: start;\">科技股狂欢式上涨</h2><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">从大盘来看，美联储500个基点的加息只加了个寂寞。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">16个月前，美联储开启本轮加息周期时，标普大盘收于4358点，本周二，标普大盘收于4555点，比加息开始的时候还要猛。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6fb61456741fca8123cf2687d0d8634d\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"315\"/></p><p style=\"text-align: center;\">美股大盘已经超过了加息前的位置</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">带动指数上升的，主要是今年狂欢式上涨的大型科技股。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">由苹果、微软、谷歌、亚马逊、英伟达、特斯拉和Meta组成的“七姐妹”（Magnificent Seven），今年迄今总市值飙升60%，达到令人瞠目的近11万亿美元，大约相当于世界第四大经济体德国GDP的三倍。七姐妹目前占到标普500总市值的28%，高于年初的20%。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">追踪标普指数的资金大约有15万亿美元，也就是说，如果这七家公司里有一两家出现问题，就会给市场带来巨震。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">不过，有市场参与者认为，类似的窄幅领涨行情此前也出现过，并且持续时间更长，今年的大涨也可被视为2022年大跌的逆转，而非崩盘的预兆。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">BI资深分析师Gillian Wolff此前对彭博新闻表示，七姐妹领涨大盘的情况并不可怕：</p><blockquote>“与互联网泡沫时期不同，这些公司中大部分盈利前景都很强劲。不过，未来几周的财报可能会起到决定性作用。”</blockquote><h2 id=\"id_154864828\" style=\"text-align: start;\">散户大军卷土重来</h2><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Vanda Research的最新散户资金流数据显示：美股散户正在争先恐后杀入市场，主要通过美国科技股、电动汽车、债券和广泛的股票ETF继续追涨。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Vanda Research预计，整个财报季，散户的净买入量都会维持在高位。该机构指出，散户通常倾向于“逆向投资”，即“追涨杀跌”，如果股市保持上行趋势，未来预计还会有大量散户资金涌入。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9395c56ed6cf53ad391fa14598c6f150\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"300\"/></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">该机构称，<strong>自2020年美股散户人数大幅攀升以来，”散户交易者从未在财报季&#39;正式&#39;开始前如此积极地买入股票&#34;。</strong></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3a2966d3db4dbbc9ecb223f77d42dc86\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"300\"/></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">美银基金经理调查报告也显示：尽管机构投资者倾向于低配股票，但根据 AAII（美国个人投资者协会）的数据，<strong>美国散户对股市的看涨情绪，已达到2021年以来的最高水平。</strong></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ef2c1d8b259e0094f1ad8cba41aa025b\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"254\"/></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">散户买买买正在推动美国民众喜闻乐见的meme股暴涨。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">今年迄今，MEME ETF累计上涨61%，明星meme股中，不乏一些涨幅吊打英伟达的超级赢家：比特币矿商Riot Platforms累涨439%，AI借贷平台Upstart Holdings累涨308%，Coinbase累涨196%，电动汽车股Carvana累涨了740%。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">此外，比特币今年的涨幅也高达80%。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">一切情绪指数都指向积极的方向：</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">牛熊价差，即认为股市将走高的投资者与预期股市将下跌的投资者之间的差额，已连续六周为正值。这是自2021年11月以来牛熊价差为正值的最长一段时期。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>美国人对整体经济也越来越有信心</strong>。根据密歇根大学的调查，7月份的消费者信心指数从上个月的64.4跃升至72.6。这是自2021年9月以来的最高值，也是自2005年以来的最大增幅。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>投资者的恐慌已经基本消退</strong>。Cboe波动率指数（VIX）目前位于13点附近，该指数低于20即意味着市场对保险的需求很低。芝加哥期权交易所数据显示，看跌期权与看涨期权的比率，已降至2022年1月以来的最低水平。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/689f29ed3b62715f92c8bef13fcbafe2\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"361\"/></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Aptus Capital Advisors投资组合经理David Wagner对华尔街日报表示，自美联储3月份救助银行系统以来，投资者的担忧少了很多。他认为，<strong>目前唯一能阻止这波涨势的，就是大的风险重新摆上桌面</strong>。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">不过，看空美股的市场参与者则相信，一场全面崩盘的完美风暴正在酝酿之中。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">2021 年末，散户投资者同样争先恐后地大举买入，但之后就遭遇了惨烈的熊市：<strong>年初散户蜂拥入市的时候，VIX指数和看跌期权与看涨期权比率同样处于低位；但到2022年1月初，三大股指均已见顶，标普500在一年里累计下跌了19%。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">PNC资管集团CIO Amanda Agati对华尔街日报表示：</p><blockquote>“FOMO（害怕错过）情绪变得如此之大，以至于散户投资者在最后时刻蜂拥而入，这是最后的狂欢，正好赶上市场从峰顶滑落。”</blockquote><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">令人担忧的不仅仅是市场的繁荣。借贷成本上升有可能导致经济放缓，扼杀企业信贷，使公司和家庭更难获得贷款。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">在过去一年左右的时间里，汽车贷款和抵押贷款的利率飙升了约3个百分点。美联储数据显示，信用卡的利息已经从 16% 上升到了 22%。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">虽然通胀有所缓解，6月CPI同比回落至3%，但仍高于美联储2%的目标。美联储担忧，美国人会习惯于高通胀，因此在经济放缓之际仍然不断发出鹰声警告，一旦紧缩的政策持续下去，股市的狂欢不会持续太久。</p></body></html>","source":"live_wallstreetcn","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" 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height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n科技股领涨风险资产，散户大军卷土重来，什么信号？\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2023-07-19 22:04 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3693631><strong>华尔街见闻</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>作者：常嘉帅美股二季度财报季紧随着疲软的经济数据如期揭幕。对火热的股市而言，美联储的鹰声如耳旁风。事实上，仔细观察今日的美股，不难发现，美联储加息基本算是白加，2022年的熊市已经远去，市场已重回2021年的狂热。主要信号有两个：1）狂欢式上涨的科技股；2）卷土重来的散户大军。这一切如2021年重现，但当时随之而来的是惨烈的大跌。科技股狂欢式上涨从大盘来看，美联储500个基点的加息只加了个寂寞。...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3693631\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/02ad453d1404f80bdd57419bc97bfad5","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3693631","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/cc96873d3d23ee6ac10685520df9c100","article_id":"1143362679","content_text":"作者：常嘉帅美股二季度财报季紧随着疲软的经济数据如期揭幕。对火热的股市而言，美联储的鹰声如耳旁风。事实上，仔细观察今日的美股，不难发现，美联储加息基本算是白加，2022年的熊市已经远去，市场已重回2021年的狂热。主要信号有两个：1）狂欢式上涨的科技股；2）卷土重来的散户大军。这一切如2021年重现，但当时随之而来的是惨烈的大跌。科技股狂欢式上涨从大盘来看，美联储500个基点的加息只加了个寂寞。16个月前，美联储开启本轮加息周期时，标普大盘收于4358点，本周二，标普大盘收于4555点，比加息开始的时候还要猛。美股大盘已经超过了加息前的位置带动指数上升的，主要是今年狂欢式上涨的大型科技股。由苹果、微软、谷歌、亚马逊、英伟达、特斯拉和Meta组成的“七姐妹”（Magnificent Seven），今年迄今总市值飙升60%，达到令人瞠目的近11万亿美元，大约相当于世界第四大经济体德国GDP的三倍。七姐妹目前占到标普500总市值的28%，高于年初的20%。追踪标普指数的资金大约有15万亿美元，也就是说，如果这七家公司里有一两家出现问题，就会给市场带来巨震。不过，有市场参与者认为，类似的窄幅领涨行情此前也出现过，并且持续时间更长，今年的大涨也可被视为2022年大跌的逆转，而非崩盘的预兆。BI资深分析师Gillian Wolff此前对彭博新闻表示，七姐妹领涨大盘的情况并不可怕：“与互联网泡沫时期不同，这些公司中大部分盈利前景都很强劲。不过，未来几周的财报可能会起到决定性作用。”散户大军卷土重来Vanda Research的最新散户资金流数据显示：美股散户正在争先恐后杀入市场，主要通过美国科技股、电动汽车、债券和广泛的股票ETF继续追涨。Vanda Research预计，整个财报季，散户的净买入量都会维持在高位。该机构指出，散户通常倾向于“逆向投资”，即“追涨杀跌”，如果股市保持上行趋势，未来预计还会有大量散户资金涌入。该机构称，自2020年美股散户人数大幅攀升以来，”散户交易者从未在财报季'正式'开始前如此积极地买入股票\"。美银基金经理调查报告也显示：尽管机构投资者倾向于低配股票，但根据 AAII（美国个人投资者协会）的数据，美国散户对股市的看涨情绪，已达到2021年以来的最高水平。散户买买买正在推动美国民众喜闻乐见的meme股暴涨。今年迄今，MEME ETF累计上涨61%，明星meme股中，不乏一些涨幅吊打英伟达的超级赢家：比特币矿商Riot Platforms累涨439%，AI借贷平台Upstart Holdings累涨308%，Coinbase累涨196%，电动汽车股Carvana累涨了740%。此外，比特币今年的涨幅也高达80%。一切情绪指数都指向积极的方向：牛熊价差，即认为股市将走高的投资者与预期股市将下跌的投资者之间的差额，已连续六周为正值。这是自2021年11月以来牛熊价差为正值的最长一段时期。美国人对整体经济也越来越有信心。根据密歇根大学的调查，7月份的消费者信心指数从上个月的64.4跃升至72.6。这是自2021年9月以来的最高值，也是自2005年以来的最大增幅。投资者的恐慌已经基本消退。Cboe波动率指数（VIX）目前位于13点附近，该指数低于20即意味着市场对保险的需求很低。芝加哥期权交易所数据显示，看跌期权与看涨期权的比率，已降至2022年1月以来的最低水平。Aptus Capital Advisors投资组合经理David Wagner对华尔街日报表示，自美联储3月份救助银行系统以来，投资者的担忧少了很多。他认为，目前唯一能阻止这波涨势的，就是大的风险重新摆上桌面。不过，看空美股的市场参与者则相信，一场全面崩盘的完美风暴正在酝酿之中。2021 年末，散户投资者同样争先恐后地大举买入，但之后就遭遇了惨烈的熊市：年初散户蜂拥入市的时候，VIX指数和看跌期权与看涨期权比率同样处于低位；但到2022年1月初，三大股指均已见顶，标普500在一年里累计下跌了19%。PNC资管集团CIO Amanda Agati对华尔街日报表示：“FOMO（害怕错过）情绪变得如此之大，以至于散户投资者在最后时刻蜂拥而入，这是最后的狂欢，正好赶上市场从峰顶滑落。”令人担忧的不仅仅是市场的繁荣。借贷成本上升有可能导致经济放缓，扼杀企业信贷，使公司和家庭更难获得贷款。在过去一年左右的时间里，汽车贷款和抵押贷款的利率飙升了约3个百分点。美联储数据显示，信用卡的利息已经从 16% 上升到了 22%。虽然通胀有所缓解，6月CPI同比回落至3%，但仍高于美联储2%的目标。美联储担忧，美国人会习惯于高通胀，因此在经济放缓之际仍然不断发出鹰声警告，一旦紧缩的政策持续下去，股市的狂欢不会持续太久。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":901,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":191562258051200,"gmtCreate":1687775566311,"gmtModify":1687775567606,"author":{"id":"3560312943951686","authorId":"3560312943951686","name":"chirsj","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/78695435fff9536bbc2367a87cd732b0","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3560312943951686","authorIdStr":"3560312943951686"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"看到这些人开始唱多&nbsp; 就是该卖了","listText":"看到这些人开始唱多&nbsp; 就是该卖了","text":"看到这些人开始唱多 就是该卖了","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/191562258051200","repostId":"1118810751","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1118810751","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据，旨在帮助投资者理解世界，做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1687765049,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1118810751?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2023-06-26 15:37","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"热点观察 | 好兆头！上半年股市的狂飙，都是下半年惊喜的铺垫","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1118810751","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"以史为鉴，若标普500指数上半年涨超10%，下半年大概率会上涨！2023年上半年，纳指、标普500指数迈入“技术性牛市”，愿下半年同样惊喜不断！上半年，美国股市的大多数涨幅都是由周期性成长股推动的，尤其是以大型科技股为代表。上周股市下跌之前，散户纷纷拥抱股市。高盛追踪股市情绪的指数本月升至2021年4月以来的最高水平。文末，祝美股在2023年上半年所有的努力，都是在为下半年的惊喜作铺垫！","content":"<html><head></head><body><blockquote><strong>以史为鉴，若标普500指数上半年涨超10%，下半年大概率会上涨！2023年上半年，纳指、标普500指数迈入“技术性牛市”，愿下半年同样惊喜不断！</strong></blockquote><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7ffaace78b8eff9d39547357c418468f\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"750\" tg-height=\"1576\"/></p><p>2023年的上半年度精彩纷呈，全球投资市场机会与风险并存——ChatGPT爆火，英伟达市值破万亿、欧美银行业危机、美国债务上限......回顾上半年美股的表现，整体呈现向上的趋势，纳指、标普500指数也纷纷迈入“技术性牛市”。</p><p>上半年，美国股市的大多数涨幅都是由周期性成长股推动的，尤其是以大型科技股为代表。从逻辑上来看，本轮科技股走强背后的原因是比较清晰的——AI热潮激发的人气促使投资者纷纷涌入谷歌和英伟达等市值巨大的科技股。</p><p><strong>同时，美股滚雪球般的上涨，越来越多的投资者纷纷涌入股市。</strong></p><p>上周股市下跌之前，散户纷纷拥抱股市。根据摩根大通编制的交易所公开数据，截至上周二的一周内，<strong>散户买入了44亿美元的股票，高出12个月平均值两个标准差。</strong>高盛追踪股市情绪的指数本月升至2021年4月以来的最高水平。</p><p>美国银行策略师Michael Hartnett称，受益于市场情绪高涨，科技股在前两个月吸引了190亿美元资金流入。</p><p><strong>不过，华尔街对美股前景的观点分歧也正在加剧</strong></p><p>华尔街知名空头、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MS\">摩根士丹利</a>策略师Michael Wilson坚持其看空美股大盘的观点，并在近期的报告中进一步强调企业盈利衰退将持续的观点。去年以来华尔街预测最准确的分析师、美银策略分析师Michael Hartnett也坚持看空美股。他认为，美股上涨的逻辑站不住，最近“对第一季度经济衰退的恐惧”正在转变为“对第二季度金发姑娘的贪婪”。</p><p>不过，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GS\">高盛</a>首席美国股票策略师David Kostin则对美股未来走势持乐观态度。David Kostin表示，标普500指数近期的这一涨势预计将扩大到科技股以外，因为“之前大幅涨幅大幅收窄之后，市场将对科技股进行更广泛的估值重估”。对于美股后续仍将上涨的逻辑，David Kostin给出了两点逻辑支撑，除了经济衰退概率缩小给美股带来强劲的上涨动力之外，另一个理由是AI全面普及为企业利润增速提供重要支持。</p><p>作为华尔街最悲观分析师之一的美国银行首席策略分析师Savita Subramanian也一改此前看空美股的说法，称困扰美股的熊市已经正式结束，未来还有继续反弹的空间。Savita Subramanian的分析显示，<strong>自1929年代以来的数据显示，标普500指数在实现超过10%的反弹后，在接下来的6个月内延续了上涨势头。</strong></p><p>文末，祝美股在2023年上半年所有的努力，都是在为下半年的惊喜作铺垫！</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>热点观察 | 好兆头！上半年股市的狂飙，都是下半年惊喜的铺垫 </title>\n<style 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margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n热点观察 | 好兆头！上半年股市的狂飙，都是下半年惊喜的铺垫 \n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2023-06-26 15:37</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><blockquote><strong>以史为鉴，若标普500指数上半年涨超10%，下半年大概率会上涨！2023年上半年，纳指、标普500指数迈入“技术性牛市”，愿下半年同样惊喜不断！</strong></blockquote><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7ffaace78b8eff9d39547357c418468f\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"750\" tg-height=\"1576\"/></p><p>2023年的上半年度精彩纷呈，全球投资市场机会与风险并存——ChatGPT爆火，英伟达市值破万亿、欧美银行业危机、美国债务上限......回顾上半年美股的表现，整体呈现向上的趋势，纳指、标普500指数也纷纷迈入“技术性牛市”。</p><p>上半年，美国股市的大多数涨幅都是由周期性成长股推动的，尤其是以大型科技股为代表。从逻辑上来看，本轮科技股走强背后的原因是比较清晰的——AI热潮激发的人气促使投资者纷纷涌入谷歌和英伟达等市值巨大的科技股。</p><p><strong>同时，美股滚雪球般的上涨，越来越多的投资者纷纷涌入股市。</strong></p><p>上周股市下跌之前，散户纷纷拥抱股市。根据摩根大通编制的交易所公开数据，截至上周二的一周内，<strong>散户买入了44亿美元的股票，高出12个月平均值两个标准差。</strong>高盛追踪股市情绪的指数本月升至2021年4月以来的最高水平。</p><p>美国银行策略师Michael Hartnett称，受益于市场情绪高涨，科技股在前两个月吸引了190亿美元资金流入。</p><p><strong>不过，华尔街对美股前景的观点分歧也正在加剧</strong></p><p>华尔街知名空头、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MS\">摩根士丹利</a>策略师Michael Wilson坚持其看空美股大盘的观点，并在近期的报告中进一步强调企业盈利衰退将持续的观点。去年以来华尔街预测最准确的分析师、美银策略分析师Michael Hartnett也坚持看空美股。他认为，美股上涨的逻辑站不住，最近“对第一季度经济衰退的恐惧”正在转变为“对第二季度金发姑娘的贪婪”。</p><p>不过，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GS\">高盛</a>首席美国股票策略师David Kostin则对美股未来走势持乐观态度。David Kostin表示，标普500指数近期的这一涨势预计将扩大到科技股以外，因为“之前大幅涨幅大幅收窄之后，市场将对科技股进行更广泛的估值重估”。对于美股后续仍将上涨的逻辑，David Kostin给出了两点逻辑支撑，除了经济衰退概率缩小给美股带来强劲的上涨动力之外，另一个理由是AI全面普及为企业利润增速提供重要支持。</p><p>作为华尔街最悲观分析师之一的美国银行首席策略分析师Savita Subramanian也一改此前看空美股的说法，称困扰美股的熊市已经正式结束，未来还有继续反弹的空间。Savita Subramanian的分析显示，<strong>自1929年代以来的数据显示，标普500指数在实现超过10%的反弹后，在接下来的6个月内延续了上涨势头。</strong></p><p>文末，祝美股在2023年上半年所有的努力，都是在为下半年的惊喜作铺垫！</p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/55eb327f580527889cf30bafa92692ae","relate_stocks":{".SPX":"S&P 500 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