李总小童鞋的个人主页 - 老虎社区

李总小童鞋

李总小童鞋

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李总小童鞋

2023-01-04

这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看

@Ivan_甘灿荣:2023前瞻(一)--悲观的纳指

李总小童鞋

2023-01-04

这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看

@罗国强Kenny:Singapore REITs (Jan 2023)

李总小童鞋

2023-01-04

这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看

@不二说价值:📢请关注我的Youtube频道：不二说价值。以确保收看所有完整的节目。 📢 我会持续对优质公司进行估值，帮助虎友做出更合理的交易决策。欢迎评论留下自己想估价的股票，热门留言我会优先估价。 $微软(MSFT)$ $InMode Ltd.(INMD)$ $PayPal(PYPL)$ $爱彼迎(ABNB)$ $标普500(.SPX)$

李总小童鞋

2021-12-16

这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看

@李总小童鞋:$贝壳(BEKE)$最新回应

李总小童鞋

2021-12-16

$贝壳(BEKE)$最新回应

李总小童鞋

2021-10-14

这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看

@陈达美股投资:BEKE:贝壳露珠

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题，这里试着从两个维度测算。1、修正加息抹去降息幅度第一个维度就是当前美联储所加利率已经高于2019年时的利率水平，简单地说，就是疫情以来所降的利率，已经完全抹去。而本次纳指上涨，是由于疫情所带来","text":"最近的跨年，朋友圈中刷得最多的就是不平静的2022年已过去。诚然对于国内的朋友们来说，全年的生活都被疫情打破，现在的放开将会逐步向好。而对于国外的金融市场来说，恐怕悲观的情绪仅仅只是开端，仍远未到终结。一、美股的驱动是什么?翻开08年以来的美股图表，自美联储08年以来的”0息”时代开始至22年美联储结束超低利率加息应对通胀开始，标普涨幅6.2倍，道指涨幅4.7倍，纳指涨幅11.8倍，三者相距甚大。而其中在美联储慢速加息的2016-2019年期间，标普涨幅79%，道指涨幅86%，纳指涨幅115%，三者差距并不显著。以上数据说明，纳指的波幅受美联储加减息影响甚大，尤其在降息阶段，其涨幅远抛离其它指数。究其原因可能科技股的规模效应相对传统行业更容易受到廉价资金的青睐，而不像传统行业投资周期长，规模效应低，回报慢等。不过当廉价资金不再，资金开始重新追求稳定回报的时候，科技企业恐怕就会受到考验，毕竟具有利润粘性的科技企业凤毛麟角，难免会对其股价进行一轮轮的重估。二、美联储的加息持续？2022年以来，纳指跌幅最大，全年大跌33%。虽然我猜中了美股10月开始有所反弹，但纳指的弱势出乎我的意料。该强不强视为弱，不能因为纳指去年跌多了就认为它跌到位了，如果把这趟下跌视为自08年上涨以来的修正的话，那么现在的跌幅也只是刚刚开始而已。而一切的方向盘就在美联储手中，假若美联储2023年持续加息的话，那么纳指就很难有所表现。而根据我的美元周期推算，美联储的修正式加息周期通常持续2年，而如果规律延续的话那纳指还是有得跌。三、纳指的跌幅？假定上述逻辑和时间都有效的情况下，纳指仍有多少下跌空间？想必是大家关心的问题，这里试着从两个维度测算。1、修正加息抹去降息幅度第一个维度就是当前美联储所加利率已经高于2019年时的利率水平，简单地说，就是疫情以来所降的利率，已经完全抹去。而本次纳指上涨，是由于疫情所带来","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b64e8496aae7bc0d6b3e166a36165a06","width":"-1","height":"-1"},{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/15c02d06df1b2e40f3e5b498e91ea173","width":"-1","height":"-1"},{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1a775afb150ad521348fc91878489a70","width":"-1","height":"-1"}],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":2,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/621751173","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":5,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":660,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":628906815,"gmtCreate":1672804171337,"gmtModify":1672804173285,"author":{"id":"3560065055078709","authorId":"3560065055078709","name":"李总小童鞋","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/826170a4a02069cc7b7ad12cc80d254a","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看","listText":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看","text":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/628906815","repostId":"621714502","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":621714502,"gmtCreate":1672669829507,"gmtModify":1672673983118,"author":{"id":"3563967154363605","authorId":"3563967154363605","name":"罗国强Kenny","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a64c08a818345f1ee44647f4f4c23a69","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"title":"Singapore REITs (Jan 2023)","htmlText":"Technical Analysis of FTSE ST REIT Index (FSTAS351020) FTSE ST Real Estate Investment Trusts (FTSE ST REIT Index) increased from 723.18 to 725.07&nbsp;(0.26%)&nbsp;compared tolast month’s update. The REIT Index has rebounded from the sell-off in September and October and since early November has been within the range of 714 and 742. It has been moving sideways for the past 2 months. This is a typical flag pattern after a strong move. Short-term direction:Sideways (20D SMA is moving sideways) Medium-term direction:Sideways (50D SMA is moving sideways) Long-term directionDown (200D SMA is sloping down) Immediate Support at 714 Immediate Resistance at 742 Fundamental Analysis of 38 Singapore REITs The following is the compilation of 38 Singapore REITs with colour-coding of the Distribution","listText":"Technical Analysis of FTSE ST REIT Index (FSTAS351020) FTSE ST Real Estate Investment Trusts (FTSE ST REIT Index) increased from 723.18 to 725.07&nbsp;(0.26%)&nbsp;compared tolast month’s update. The REIT Index has rebounded from the sell-off in September and October and since early November has been within the range of 714 and 742. It has been moving sideways for the past 2 months. This is a typical flag pattern after a strong move. Short-term direction:Sideways (20D SMA is moving sideways) Medium-term direction:Sideways (50D SMA is moving sideways) Long-term directionDown (200D SMA is sloping down) Immediate Support at 714 Immediate Resistance at 742 Fundamental Analysis of 38 Singapore REITs The following is the compilation of 38 Singapore REITs with colour-coding of the Distribution","text":"Technical Analysis of FTSE ST REIT Index (FSTAS351020) FTSE ST Real Estate Investment Trusts (FTSE ST REIT Index) increased from 723.18 to 725.07 (0.26%) compared tolast month’s update. The REIT Index has rebounded from the sell-off in September and October and since early November has been within the range of 714 and 742. It has been moving sideways for the past 2 months. This is a typical flag pattern after a strong move. Short-term direction:Sideways (20D SMA is moving sideways) Medium-term direction:Sideways (50D SMA is moving sideways) Long-term directionDown (200D SMA is sloping down) Immediate Support at 714 Immediate Resistance at 742 Fundamental Analysis of 38 Singapore REITs The following is the compilation of 38 Singapore REITs with colour-coding of the Distribution","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/75841f1e56892bae8cc422d1311f43c6"},{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/11bde214a0b751be6a6e597d69a5c6c5"},{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b532dc569fbbf6e20707cde0f6ae90cf"}],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":1,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/621714502","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":5,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":789,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":628906101,"gmtCreate":1672804160103,"gmtModify":1672804162143,"author":{"id":"3560065055078709","authorId":"3560065055078709","name":"李总小童鞋","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/826170a4a02069cc7b7ad12cc80d254a","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看","listText":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看","text":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/628906101","repostId":"621735316","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":621735316,"gmtCreate":1672645310935,"gmtModify":1672647869387,"author":{"id":"3545995761422355","authorId":"3545995761422355","name":"不二说价值","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/56fa489972246881ba23cfecebfd4c45","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"title":"抄底是个技术活！跌了一整年，哪些股票可以抄底了？","htmlText":"\n \n \n  📢请关注我的Youtube频道：不二说价值。以确保收看所有完整的节目。 📢&nbsp;我会持续对优质公司进行估值，帮助虎友做出更合理的交易决策。欢迎评论留下自己想估价的股票，热门留言我会优先估价。 <a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MSFT\">$微软(MSFT)$</a>&nbsp;<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/INMD\">$InMode Ltd.(INMD)$</a>&nbsp;<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PYPL\">$PayPal(PYPL)$</a>&nbsp;<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ABNB\">$爱彼迎(ABNB)$</a>&nbsp;<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/.SPX\">$标普500(.SPX)$</a>&nbsp;\n \n","listText":"📢请关注我的Youtube频道：不二说价值。以确保收看所有完整的节目。 📢&nbsp;我会持续对优质公司进行估值，帮助虎友做出更合理的交易决策。欢迎评论留下自己想估价的股票，热门留言我会优先估价。 <a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MSFT\">$微软(MSFT)$</a>&nbsp;<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/INMD\">$InMode Ltd.(INMD)$</a>&nbsp;<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PYPL\">$PayPal(PYPL)$</a>&nbsp;<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ABNB\">$爱彼迎(ABNB)$</a>&nbsp;<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/.SPX\">$标普500(.SPX)$</a>&nbsp;","text":"📢请关注我的Youtube频道：不二说价值。以确保收看所有完整的节目。 📢 我会持续对优质公司进行估值，帮助虎友做出更合理的交易决策。欢迎评论留下自己想估价的股票，热门留言我会优先估价。 $微软(MSFT)$ $InMode Ltd.(INMD)$ $PayPal(PYPL)$ $爱彼迎(ABNB)$ $标普500(.SPX)$","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a2a4245040376a1f1ea3a15f0418adbb","width":"632","height":"201"}],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":2,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/621735316","isVote":1,"tweetType":2,"object":{"id":"997402fbdf9b4ed3b344dc3d17a93da4","tweetId":"621735316","videoUrl":"https://1254107296.vod2.myqcloud.com/27e1f7ecvodtransgzp1254107296/6a13bc51243791578126230367/v.f30.mp4","poster":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7410384788d84d984a6ec4374a6b0687"},"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":694,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":690672181,"gmtCreate":1639666751840,"gmtModify":1639666751840,"author":{"id":"3560065055078709","authorId":"3560065055078709","name":"李总小童鞋","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/826170a4a02069cc7b7ad12cc80d254a","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看","listText":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看","text":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/690672181","repostId":"690678372","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":690678372,"gmtCreate":1639666652173,"gmtModify":1639666652173,"author":{"id":"3560065055078709","authorId":"3560065055078709","name":"李总小童鞋","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/826170a4a02069cc7b7ad12cc80d254a","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a 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href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BEKE\">$贝壳(BEKE)$</a>最新回应","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BEKE\">$贝壳(BEKE)$</a>最新回应","text":"$贝壳(BEKE)$最新回应","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d1a9e8e3e06dab69b7d61e3f48526281","width":"1242","height":"2208"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":1,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/690678372","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":596,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":825995348,"gmtCreate":1634186512388,"gmtModify":1634186512388,"author":{"id":"3560065055078709","authorId":"3560065055078709","name":"李总小童鞋","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/826170a4a02069cc7b7ad12cc80d254a","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看","listText":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看","text":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/825995348","repostId":"822851508","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":822851508,"gmtCreate":1634117522523,"gmtModify":1634291398455,"author":{"id":"115535245075020","authorId":"115535245075020","name":"陈达美股投资","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/93c77cdf64a6c2c4355eb691def79ccf","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"title":"BEKE:贝壳露珠","htmlText":"<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BEKE\">$贝壳(BEKE)$</a>&nbsp; 聊一聊贝壳找房，先说核心观点： 1. 过去资本市场对贝壳的估值，两点一线 ，看GTV与市占率，是房屋交易视角下的估值模型。如此，贝壳看起来就与房产公司一荣俱荣，是一个周期股。而周期股，by definition就不应该一直都很值钱。 2. 虽然贝壳股价极易受房地产周期波动影响，但交易视角看贝壳非常不全面，贝壳做的是“服务美好居住的互联网科技企业”，而不止于房产经纪公司。 3. 草木本无意，荣枯自有时。房地产行业发展阶段，决定了贝壳转向居住服务是种必然。居住服务是长期、轻质、可标准化、可复制的生意，a better business model。 4. 交易视角下对贝壳的估值随波逐流、随风飘荡，容易过分乐观或过分悲观；但在居住服务视角下，贝壳的可预期性更强，更有长期投资的价值。 5. 贝壳的转型不是我一厢情愿的YY。9月29日贝壳研究院、空白研究院，联合发布了一份报告，叫做《超越交易——迎接品质服务的美好时代》，其意昭然。 一、贝壳的传统估值逻辑 共同富裕手牵着手，岳母问你房有没有。房子一直是国人的心结。有人说，我这辈子命薄，碰到过唯一的贵人，就是十五年前在小区门口苦口婆性劝我买套新盘的房产销售小姐姐，可惜我面对财神娘娘下凡，有眼无珠；我赶走了她，如同赶开了一只苍蝇。 这叫给你机会你不中用。而且还不止一次机会，你当年每天走过的那条路，标配有五六个销售，苦心孤诣劝你买新盘。所以一年给了你1500次机会。引用网某友原话：现在13万的国奥村，3万的时候中介一直打电话让我爸去看房，我爸说这房子贴金皮了这么贵——马后炮来看，目前国奥村的价格，确实能至少给客厅贴一层金皮。 房地产业也豪横了多年。到2020 年，我国城镇化率已超 60%，家庭户均","listText":"<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BEKE\">$贝壳(BEKE)$</a>&nbsp; 聊一聊贝壳找房，先说核心观点： 1. 过去资本市场对贝壳的估值，两点一线 ，看GTV与市占率，是房屋交易视角下的估值模型。如此，贝壳看起来就与房产公司一荣俱荣，是一个周期股。而周期股，by definition就不应该一直都很值钱。 2. 虽然贝壳股价极易受房地产周期波动影响，但交易视角看贝壳非常不全面，贝壳做的是“服务美好居住的互联网科技企业”，而不止于房产经纪公司。 3. 草木本无意，荣枯自有时。房地产行业发展阶段，决定了贝壳转向居住服务是种必然。居住服务是长期、轻质、可标准化、可复制的生意，a better business model。 4. 交易视角下对贝壳的估值随波逐流、随风飘荡，容易过分乐观或过分悲观；但在居住服务视角下，贝壳的可预期性更强，更有长期投资的价值。 5. 贝壳的转型不是我一厢情愿的YY。9月29日贝壳研究院、空白研究院，联合发布了一份报告，叫做《超越交易——迎接品质服务的美好时代》，其意昭然。 一、贝壳的传统估值逻辑 共同富裕手牵着手，岳母问你房有没有。房子一直是国人的心结。有人说，我这辈子命薄，碰到过唯一的贵人，就是十五年前在小区门口苦口婆性劝我买套新盘的房产销售小姐姐，可惜我面对财神娘娘下凡，有眼无珠；我赶走了她，如同赶开了一只苍蝇。 这叫给你机会你不中用。而且还不止一次机会，你当年每天走过的那条路，标配有五六个销售，苦心孤诣劝你买新盘。所以一年给了你1500次机会。引用网某友原话：现在13万的国奥村，3万的时候中介一直打电话让我爸去看房，我爸说这房子贴金皮了这么贵——马后炮来看，目前国奥村的价格，确实能至少给客厅贴一层金皮。 房地产业也豪横了多年。到2020 年，我国城镇化率已超 60%，家庭户均","text":"$贝壳(BEKE)$ 聊一聊贝壳找房，先说核心观点： 1. 过去资本市场对贝壳的估值，两点一线 ，看GTV与市占率，是房屋交易视角下的估值模型。如此，贝壳看起来就与房产公司一荣俱荣，是一个周期股。而周期股，by definition就不应该一直都很值钱。 2. 虽然贝壳股价极易受房地产周期波动影响，但交易视角看贝壳非常不全面，贝壳做的是“服务美好居住的互联网科技企业”，而不止于房产经纪公司。 3. 草木本无意，荣枯自有时。房地产行业发展阶段，决定了贝壳转向居住服务是种必然。居住服务是长期、轻质、可标准化、可复制的生意，a better business model。 4. 交易视角下对贝壳的估值随波逐流、随风飘荡，容易过分乐观或过分悲观；但在居住服务视角下，贝壳的可预期性更强，更有长期投资的价值。 5. 贝壳的转型不是我一厢情愿的YY。9月29日贝壳研究院、空白研究院，联合发布了一份报告，叫做《超越交易——迎接品质服务的美好时代》，其意昭然。 一、贝壳的传统估值逻辑 共同富裕手牵着手，岳母问你房有没有。房子一直是国人的心结。有人说，我这辈子命薄，碰到过唯一的贵人，就是十五年前在小区门口苦口婆性劝我买套新盘的房产销售小姐姐，可惜我面对财神娘娘下凡，有眼无珠；我赶走了她，如同赶开了一只苍蝇。 这叫给你机会你不中用。而且还不止一次机会，你当年每天走过的那条路，标配有五六个销售，苦心孤诣劝你买新盘。所以一年给了你1500次机会。引用网某友原话：现在13万的国奥村，3万的时候中介一直打电话让我爸去看房，我爸说这房子贴金皮了这么贵——马后炮来看，目前国奥村的价格，确实能至少给客厅贴一层金皮。 房地产业也豪横了多年。到2020 年，我国城镇化率已超 60%，家庭户均","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/78656ccfd381b0fd2bc6863376a55841","width":"688","height":"531"}],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":2,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/822851508","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":2,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":704,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":690678372,"gmtCreate":1639666652173,"gmtModify":1639666652173,"author":{"id":"3560065055078709","authorId":"3560065055078709","name":"李总小童鞋","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/826170a4a02069cc7b7ad12cc80d254a","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BEKE\">$贝壳(BEKE)$</a>最新回应","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BEKE\">$贝壳(BEKE)$</a>最新回应","text":"$贝壳(BEKE)$最新回应","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d1a9e8e3e06dab69b7d61e3f48526281","width":"1242","height":"2208"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":1,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/690678372","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":596,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":628906627,"gmtCreate":1672804184569,"gmtModify":1672804186593,"author":{"id":"3560065055078709","authorId":"3560065055078709","name":"李总小童鞋","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/826170a4a02069cc7b7ad12cc80d254a","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看","listText":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看","text":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/628906627","repostId":"621751173","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":621751173,"gmtCreate":1672718095492,"gmtModify":1672718491811,"author":{"id":"3534312224764596","authorId":"3534312224764596","name":"Ivan_甘灿荣","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/88507b8eb15a6e315e004663e5c9e31a","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"title":"2023前瞻(一)--悲观的纳指","htmlText":"最近的跨年，朋友圈中刷得最多的就是不平静的2022年已过去。诚然对于国内的朋友们来说，全年的生活都被疫情打破，现在的放开将会逐步向好。而对于国外的金融市场来说，恐怕悲观的情绪仅仅只是开端，仍远未到终结。一、美股的驱动是什么?翻开08年以来的美股图表，自美联储08年以来的”0息”时代开始至22年美联储结束超低利率加息应对通胀开始，标普涨幅6.2倍，道指涨幅4.7倍，纳指涨幅11.8倍，三者相距甚大。而其中在美联储慢速加息的2016-2019年期间，标普涨幅79%，道指涨幅86%，纳指涨幅115%，三者差距并不显著。以上数据说明，纳指的波幅受美联储加减息影响甚大，尤其在降息阶段，其涨幅远抛离其它指数。究其原因可能科技股的规模效应相对传统行业更容易受到廉价资金的青睐，而不像传统行业投资周期长，规模效应低，回报慢等。不过当廉价资金不再，资金开始重新追求稳定回报的时候，科技企业恐怕就会受到考验，毕竟具有利润粘性的科技企业凤毛麟角，难免会对其股价进行一轮轮的重估。二、美联储的加息持续？2022年以来，纳指跌幅最大，全年大跌33%。虽然我猜中了美股10月开始有所反弹，但纳指的弱势出乎我的意料。该强不强视为弱，不能因为纳指去年跌多了就认为它跌到位了，如果把这趟下跌视为自08年上涨以来的修正的话，那么现在的跌幅也只是刚刚开始而已。而一切的方向盘就在美联储手中，假若美联储2023年持续加息的话，那么纳指就很难有所表现。而根据我的美元周期推算，美联储的修正式加息周期通常持续2年，而如果规律延续的话那纳指还是有得跌。三、纳指的跌幅？假定上述逻辑和时间都有效的情况下，纳指仍有多少下跌空间？想必是大家关心的问题，这里试着从两个维度测算。1、修正加息抹去降息幅度第一个维度就是当前美联储所加利率已经高于2019年时的利率水平，简单地说，就是疫情以来所降的利率，已经完全抹去。而本次纳指上涨，是由于疫情所带来","listText":"最近的跨年，朋友圈中刷得最多的就是不平静的2022年已过去。诚然对于国内的朋友们来说，全年的生活都被疫情打破，现在的放开将会逐步向好。而对于国外的金融市场来说，恐怕悲观的情绪仅仅只是开端，仍远未到终结。一、美股的驱动是什么?翻开08年以来的美股图表，自美联储08年以来的”0息”时代开始至22年美联储结束超低利率加息应对通胀开始，标普涨幅6.2倍，道指涨幅4.7倍，纳指涨幅11.8倍，三者相距甚大。而其中在美联储慢速加息的2016-2019年期间，标普涨幅79%，道指涨幅86%，纳指涨幅115%，三者差距并不显著。以上数据说明，纳指的波幅受美联储加减息影响甚大，尤其在降息阶段，其涨幅远抛离其它指数。究其原因可能科技股的规模效应相对传统行业更容易受到廉价资金的青睐，而不像传统行业投资周期长，规模效应低，回报慢等。不过当廉价资金不再，资金开始重新追求稳定回报的时候，科技企业恐怕就会受到考验，毕竟具有利润粘性的科技企业凤毛麟角，难免会对其股价进行一轮轮的重估。二、美联储的加息持续？2022年以来，纳指跌幅最大，全年大跌33%。虽然我猜中了美股10月开始有所反弹，但纳指的弱势出乎我的意料。该强不强视为弱，不能因为纳指去年跌多了就认为它跌到位了，如果把这趟下跌视为自08年上涨以来的修正的话，那么现在的跌幅也只是刚刚开始而已。而一切的方向盘就在美联储手中，假若美联储2023年持续加息的话，那么纳指就很难有所表现。而根据我的美元周期推算，美联储的修正式加息周期通常持续2年，而如果规律延续的话那纳指还是有得跌。三、纳指的跌幅？假定上述逻辑和时间都有效的情况下，纳指仍有多少下跌空间？想必是大家关心的问题，这里试着从两个维度测算。1、修正加息抹去降息幅度第一个维度就是当前美联储所加利率已经高于2019年时的利率水平，简单地说，就是疫情以来所降的利率，已经完全抹去。而本次纳指上涨，是由于疫情所带来","text":"最近的跨年，朋友圈中刷得最多的就是不平静的2022年已过去。诚然对于国内的朋友们来说，全年的生活都被疫情打破，现在的放开将会逐步向好。而对于国外的金融市场来说，恐怕悲观的情绪仅仅只是开端，仍远未到终结。一、美股的驱动是什么?翻开08年以来的美股图表，自美联储08年以来的”0息”时代开始至22年美联储结束超低利率加息应对通胀开始，标普涨幅6.2倍，道指涨幅4.7倍，纳指涨幅11.8倍，三者相距甚大。而其中在美联储慢速加息的2016-2019年期间，标普涨幅79%，道指涨幅86%，纳指涨幅115%，三者差距并不显著。以上数据说明，纳指的波幅受美联储加减息影响甚大，尤其在降息阶段，其涨幅远抛离其它指数。究其原因可能科技股的规模效应相对传统行业更容易受到廉价资金的青睐，而不像传统行业投资周期长，规模效应低，回报慢等。不过当廉价资金不再，资金开始重新追求稳定回报的时候，科技企业恐怕就会受到考验，毕竟具有利润粘性的科技企业凤毛麟角，难免会对其股价进行一轮轮的重估。二、美联储的加息持续？2022年以来，纳指跌幅最大，全年大跌33%。虽然我猜中了美股10月开始有所反弹，但纳指的弱势出乎我的意料。该强不强视为弱，不能因为纳指去年跌多了就认为它跌到位了，如果把这趟下跌视为自08年上涨以来的修正的话，那么现在的跌幅也只是刚刚开始而已。而一切的方向盘就在美联储手中，假若美联储2023年持续加息的话，那么纳指就很难有所表现。而根据我的美元周期推算，美联储的修正式加息周期通常持续2年，而如果规律延续的话那纳指还是有得跌。三、纳指的跌幅？假定上述逻辑和时间都有效的情况下，纳指仍有多少下跌空间？想必是大家关心的问题，这里试着从两个维度测算。1、修正加息抹去降息幅度第一个维度就是当前美联储所加利率已经高于2019年时的利率水平，简单地说，就是疫情以来所降的利率，已经完全抹去。而本次纳指上涨，是由于疫情所带来","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b64e8496aae7bc0d6b3e166a36165a06","width":"-1","height":"-1"},{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/15c02d06df1b2e40f3e5b498e91ea173","width":"-1","height":"-1"},{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1a775afb150ad521348fc91878489a70","width":"-1","height":"-1"}],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":2,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/621751173","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":5,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":660,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":628906815,"gmtCreate":1672804171337,"gmtModify":1672804173285,"author":{"id":"3560065055078709","authorId":"3560065055078709","name":"李总小童鞋","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/826170a4a02069cc7b7ad12cc80d254a","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看","listText":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看","text":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.co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REITs (Jan 2023)","htmlText":"Technical Analysis of FTSE ST REIT Index (FSTAS351020) FTSE ST Real Estate Investment Trusts (FTSE ST REIT Index) increased from 723.18 to 725.07&nbsp;(0.26%)&nbsp;compared tolast month’s update. The REIT Index has rebounded from the sell-off in September and October and since early November has been within the range of 714 and 742. It has been moving sideways for the past 2 months. This is a typical flag pattern after a strong move. Short-term direction:Sideways (20D SMA is moving sideways) Medium-term direction:Sideways (50D SMA is moving sideways) Long-term directionDown (200D SMA is sloping down) Immediate Support at 714 Immediate Resistance at 742 Fundamental Analysis of 38 Singapore REITs The following is the compilation of 38 Singapore REITs with colour-coding of the Distribution","listText":"Technical Analysis of FTSE ST REIT Index (FSTAS351020) FTSE ST Real Estate Investment Trusts (FTSE ST REIT Index) increased from 723.18 to 725.07&nbsp;(0.26%)&nbsp;compared tolast month’s update. The REIT Index has rebounded from the sell-off in September and October and since early November has been within the range of 714 and 742. It has been moving sideways for the past 2 months. This is a typical flag pattern after a strong move. Short-term direction:Sideways (20D SMA is moving sideways) Medium-term direction:Sideways (50D SMA is moving sideways) Long-term directionDown (200D SMA is sloping down) Immediate Support at 714 Immediate Resistance at 742 Fundamental Analysis of 38 Singapore REITs The following is the compilation of 38 Singapore REITs with colour-coding of the Distribution","text":"Technical Analysis of FTSE ST REIT Index (FSTAS351020) FTSE ST Real Estate Investment Trusts (FTSE ST REIT Index) increased from 723.18 to 725.07 (0.26%) compared tolast month’s update. The REIT Index has rebounded from the sell-off in September and October and since early November has been within the range of 714 and 742. It has been moving sideways for the past 2 months. This is a typical flag pattern after a strong move. Short-term direction:Sideways (20D SMA is moving sideways) Medium-term direction:Sideways (50D SMA is moving sideways) Long-term directionDown (200D SMA is sloping down) Immediate Support at 714 Immediate Resistance at 742 Fundamental Analysis of 38 Singapore REITs The following is the compilation of 38 Singapore REITs with colour-coding of the Distribution","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/75841f1e56892bae8cc422d1311f43c6"},{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/11bde214a0b751be6a6e597d69a5c6c5"},{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b532dc569fbbf6e20707cde0f6ae90cf"}],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":1,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/621714502","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":5,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":789,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":628906101,"gmtCreate":1672804160103,"gmtModify":1672804162143,"author":{"id":"3560065055078709","authorId":"3560065055078709","name":"李总小童鞋","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/826170a4a02069cc7b7ad12cc80d254a","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看","listText":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看","text":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/628906101","repostId":"621735316","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":621735316,"gmtCreate":1672645310935,"gmtModify":1672647869387,"author":{"id":"3545995761422355","authorId":"3545995761422355","name":"不二说价值","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/56fa489972246881ba23cfecebfd4c45","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"title":"抄底是个技术活！跌了一整年，哪些股票可以抄底了？","htmlText":"\n \n \n  📢请关注我的Youtube频道：不二说价值。以确保收看所有完整的节目。 📢&nbsp;我会持续对优质公司进行估值，帮助虎友做出更合理的交易决策。欢迎评论留下自己想估价的股票，热门留言我会优先估价。 <a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MSFT\">$微软(MSFT)$</a>&nbsp;<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/INMD\">$InMode Ltd.(INMD)$</a>&nbsp;<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PYPL\">$PayPal(PYPL)$</a>&nbsp;<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ABNB\">$爱彼迎(ABNB)$</a>&nbsp;<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/.SPX\">$标普500(.SPX)$</a>&nbsp;\n \n","listText":"📢请关注我的Youtube频道：不二说价值。以确保收看所有完整的节目。 📢&nbsp;我会持续对优质公司进行估值，帮助虎友做出更合理的交易决策。欢迎评论留下自己想估价的股票，热门留言我会优先估价。 <a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MSFT\">$微软(MSFT)$</a>&nbsp;<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/INMD\">$InMode Ltd.(INMD)$</a>&nbsp;<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PYPL\">$PayPal(PYPL)$</a>&nbsp;<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ABNB\">$爱彼迎(ABNB)$</a>&nbsp;<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/.SPX\">$标普500(.SPX)$</a>&nbsp;","text":"📢请关注我的Youtube频道：不二说价值。以确保收看所有完整的节目。 📢 我会持续对优质公司进行估值，帮助虎友做出更合理的交易决策。欢迎评论留下自己想估价的股票，热门留言我会优先估价。 $微软(MSFT)$ $InMode Ltd.(INMD)$ $PayPal(PYPL)$ $爱彼迎(ABNB)$ $标普500(.SPX)$","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a2a4245040376a1f1ea3a15f0418adbb","width":"632","height":"201"}],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":2,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/621735316","isVote":1,"tweetType":2,"object":{"id":"997402fbdf9b4ed3b344dc3d17a93da4","tweetId":"621735316","videoUrl":"https://1254107296.vod2.myqcloud.com/27e1f7ecvodtransgzp1254107296/6a13bc51243791578126230367/v.f30.mp4","poster":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7410384788d84d984a6ec4374a6b0687"},"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":694,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":690672181,"gmtCreate":1639666751840,"gmtModify":1639666751840,"author":{"id":"3560065055078709","authorId":"3560065055078709","name":"李总小童鞋","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/826170a4a02069cc7b7ad12cc80d254a","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看","listText":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看","text":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/690672181","repostId":"690678372","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":690678372,"gmtCreate":1639666652173,"gmtModify":1639666652173,"author":{"id":"3560065055078709","authorId":"3560065055078709","name":"李总小童鞋","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/826170a4a02069cc7b7ad12cc80d254a","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BEKE\">$贝壳(BEKE)$</a>最新回应","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BEKE\">$贝壳(BEKE)$</a>最新回应","text":"$贝壳(BEKE)$最新回应","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d1a9e8e3e06dab69b7d61e3f48526281","width":"1242","height":"2208"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/690678372","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":791,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":825995348,"gmtCreate":1634186512388,"gmtModify":1634186512388,"author":{"id":"3560065055078709","authorId":"3560065055078709","name":"李总小童鞋","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/826170a4a02069cc7b7ad12cc80d254a","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看","listText":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看","text":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/825995348","repostId":"822851508","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":822851508,"gmtCreate":1634117522523,"gmtModify":1634291398455,"author":{"id":"115535245075020","authorId":"115535245075020","name":"陈达美股投资","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/93c77cdf64a6c2c4355eb691def79ccf","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"title":"BEKE:贝壳露珠","htmlText":"<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BEKE\">$贝壳(BEKE)$</a>&nbsp; 聊一聊贝壳找房，先说核心观点： 1. 过去资本市场对贝壳的估值，两点一线 ，看GTV与市占率，是房屋交易视角下的估值模型。如此，贝壳看起来就与房产公司一荣俱荣，是一个周期股。而周期股，by definition就不应该一直都很值钱。 2. 虽然贝壳股价极易受房地产周期波动影响，但交易视角看贝壳非常不全面，贝壳做的是“服务美好居住的互联网科技企业”，而不止于房产经纪公司。 3. 草木本无意，荣枯自有时。房地产行业发展阶段，决定了贝壳转向居住服务是种必然。居住服务是长期、轻质、可标准化、可复制的生意，a better business model。 4. 交易视角下对贝壳的估值随波逐流、随风飘荡，容易过分乐观或过分悲观；但在居住服务视角下，贝壳的可预期性更强，更有长期投资的价值。 5. 贝壳的转型不是我一厢情愿的YY。9月29日贝壳研究院、空白研究院，联合发布了一份报告，叫做《超越交易——迎接品质服务的美好时代》，其意昭然。 一、贝壳的传统估值逻辑 共同富裕手牵着手，岳母问你房有没有。房子一直是国人的心结。有人说，我这辈子命薄，碰到过唯一的贵人，就是十五年前在小区门口苦口婆性劝我买套新盘的房产销售小姐姐，可惜我面对财神娘娘下凡，有眼无珠；我赶走了她，如同赶开了一只苍蝇。 这叫给你机会你不中用。而且还不止一次机会，你当年每天走过的那条路，标配有五六个销售，苦心孤诣劝你买新盘。所以一年给了你1500次机会。引用网某友原话：现在13万的国奥村，3万的时候中介一直打电话让我爸去看房，我爸说这房子贴金皮了这么贵——马后炮来看，目前国奥村的价格，确实能至少给客厅贴一层金皮。 房地产业也豪横了多年。到2020 年，我国城镇化率已超 60%，家庭户均","listText":"<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BEKE\">$贝壳(BEKE)$</a>&nbsp; 聊一聊贝壳找房，先说核心观点： 1. 过去资本市场对贝壳的估值，两点一线 ，看GTV与市占率，是房屋交易视角下的估值模型。如此，贝壳看起来就与房产公司一荣俱荣，是一个周期股。而周期股，by definition就不应该一直都很值钱。 2. 虽然贝壳股价极易受房地产周期波动影响，但交易视角看贝壳非常不全面，贝壳做的是“服务美好居住的互联网科技企业”，而不止于房产经纪公司。 3. 草木本无意，荣枯自有时。房地产行业发展阶段，决定了贝壳转向居住服务是种必然。居住服务是长期、轻质、可标准化、可复制的生意，a better business model。 4. 交易视角下对贝壳的估值随波逐流、随风飘荡，容易过分乐观或过分悲观；但在居住服务视角下，贝壳的可预期性更强，更有长期投资的价值。 5. 贝壳的转型不是我一厢情愿的YY。9月29日贝壳研究院、空白研究院，联合发布了一份报告，叫做《超越交易——迎接品质服务的美好时代》，其意昭然。 一、贝壳的传统估值逻辑 共同富裕手牵着手，岳母问你房有没有。房子一直是国人的心结。有人说，我这辈子命薄，碰到过唯一的贵人，就是十五年前在小区门口苦口婆性劝我买套新盘的房产销售小姐姐，可惜我面对财神娘娘下凡，有眼无珠；我赶走了她，如同赶开了一只苍蝇。 这叫给你机会你不中用。而且还不止一次机会，你当年每天走过的那条路，标配有五六个销售，苦心孤诣劝你买新盘。所以一年给了你1500次机会。引用网某友原话：现在13万的国奥村，3万的时候中介一直打电话让我爸去看房，我爸说这房子贴金皮了这么贵——马后炮来看，目前国奥村的价格，确实能至少给客厅贴一层金皮。 房地产业也豪横了多年。到2020 年，我国城镇化率已超 60%，家庭户均","text":"$贝壳(BEKE)$ 聊一聊贝壳找房，先说核心观点： 1. 过去资本市场对贝壳的估值，两点一线 ，看GTV与市占率，是房屋交易视角下的估值模型。如此，贝壳看起来就与房产公司一荣俱荣，是一个周期股。而周期股，by definition就不应该一直都很值钱。 2. 虽然贝壳股价极易受房地产周期波动影响，但交易视角看贝壳非常不全面，贝壳做的是“服务美好居住的互联网科技企业”，而不止于房产经纪公司。 3. 草木本无意，荣枯自有时。房地产行业发展阶段，决定了贝壳转向居住服务是种必然。居住服务是长期、轻质、可标准化、可复制的生意，a better business model。 4. 交易视角下对贝壳的估值随波逐流、随风飘荡，容易过分乐观或过分悲观；但在居住服务视角下，贝壳的可预期性更强，更有长期投资的价值。 5. 贝壳的转型不是我一厢情愿的YY。9月29日贝壳研究院、空白研究院，联合发布了一份报告，叫做《超越交易——迎接品质服务的美好时代》，其意昭然。 一、贝壳的传统估值逻辑 共同富裕手牵着手，岳母问你房有没有。房子一直是国人的心结。有人说，我这辈子命薄，碰到过唯一的贵人，就是十五年前在小区门口苦口婆性劝我买套新盘的房产销售小姐姐，可惜我面对财神娘娘下凡，有眼无珠；我赶走了她，如同赶开了一只苍蝇。 这叫给你机会你不中用。而且还不止一次机会，你当年每天走过的那条路，标配有五六个销售，苦心孤诣劝你买新盘。所以一年给了你1500次机会。引用网某友原话：现在13万的国奥村，3万的时候中介一直打电话让我爸去看房，我爸说这房子贴金皮了这么贵——马后炮来看，目前国奥村的价格，确实能至少给客厅贴一层金皮。 房地产业也豪横了多年。到2020 年，我国城镇化率已超 60%，家庭户均","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/78656ccfd381b0fd2bc6863376a55841","width":"688","height":"531"}],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":2,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/822851508","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":2,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":704,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}