雨清淞的个人主页 - 老虎社区

雨清淞

雨清淞

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11粉丝

1主题

0勋章

2021-08-25

阅

抱歉，原内容已删除

2021-08-18

发的节奏

抱歉，原内容已删除

2021-08-18

大数据下的必然！

抱歉，原内容已删除

2021-08-18

牛逼

抱歉，原内容已删除

2021-08-18

[强]

抱歉，原内容已删除

2021-06-16

欧洲足球，碰上了欧洲疫情，是无奈的感叹！

2021-06-15

时间不长不短，会不会也有七年之痒呢？

2021-06-14

废物的回收利用，达到环保标准仍然可以

2021-06-11

2021年是利好年，各大公司排队密集上市！

2021-06-04

像体育比赛一样，重在参与！

2021-05-24

解决了人类吃饭问题，居功至伟[强] [强] [强]

2021-05-20

币圈有人欢喜有人忧，想说爱你不是一件容易的事！

2021-05-18

有钱了去投资，没钱去推广！

2021-05-10

京东作为电商，如此竞争加剧情况下，正常运行实属不易！

2021-05-05

世界首富的婚姻，感情不像财富一样

2021-05-02

股神巴菲特，占据财富最前沿！

2021-04-28

大咖的投资眼光，别具一格！

2021-04-22

特斯拉的问题，不是简单的刹车问题

2021-04-21

不知道为什么，有很多的事情还是愿意接触！

2021-04-18

不能放过一切学习的机会，也是一次人生的历炼！

去老虎APP查看更多动态

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彼时，曹兴诚对他唯一的要求就是要把芯片做出来。面对一穷二白的局面，蔡明介","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2796c335b6c84f04ad5ec6b0d0630609","width":"800","height":"210"},{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/60d6b18c959940df8ee4d3e69e63fc36","width":"1080","height":"720"},{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/49d1f89a313b42389e6decd525d36af5","width":"800","height":"210"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/391858720","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":13,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":247,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":169233204,"gmtCreate":1623836918808,"gmtModify":1623836918808,"author":{"id":"3558352300031479","authorId":"3558352300031479","name":"雨清淞","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0026c03d700167f4ac3307cc84cfc997","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3558352300031479","authorIdStr":"3558352300031479"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"欧洲足球，碰上了欧洲疫情，是无奈的感叹！","listText":"欧洲足球，碰上了欧洲疫情，是无奈的感叹！","text":"欧洲足球，碰上了欧洲疫情，是无奈的感叹！","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/169233204","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1946,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":116406029,"gmtCreate":1622814303561,"gmtModify":1622814303561,"author":{"id":"3558352300031479","authorId":"3558352300031479","name":"雨清淞","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0026c03d700167f4ac3307cc84cfc997","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3558352300031479","authorIdStr":"3558352300031479"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"像体育比赛一样，重在参与！","listText":"像体育比赛一样，重在参与！","text":"像体育比赛一样，重在参与！","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/116406029","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2413,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":344468778,"gmtCreate":1618434833094,"gmtModify":1618434833094,"author":{"id":"3558352300031479","authorId":"3558352300031479","name":"雨清淞","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0026c03d700167f4ac3307cc84cfc997","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3558352300031479","authorIdStr":"3558352300031479"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"神一样的存在，特斯拉一样的风格","listText":"神一样的存在，特斯拉一样的风格","text":"神一样的存在，特斯拉一样的风格","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/344468778","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":826,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":369628915,"gmtCreate":1614041196537,"gmtModify":1614041196537,"author":{"id":"3558352300031479","authorId":"3558352300031479","name":"雨清淞","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0026c03d700167f4ac3307cc84cfc997","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3558352300031479","authorIdStr":"3558352300031479"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"阅","listText":"阅","text":"阅","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/369628915","repostId":"1114306979","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":335,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":307348566,"gmtCreate":1605495867055,"gmtModify":1703837833839,"author":{"id":"3558352300031479","authorId":"3558352300031479","name":"雨清淞","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0026c03d700167f4ac3307cc84cfc997","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3558352300031479","authorIdStr":"3558352300031479"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"🙂","listText":"🙂","text":"🙂","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/307348566","repostId":"1115095397","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1115095397","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据，旨在帮助投资者理解世界，做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1605481371,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1115095397?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2020-11-16 07:02","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"本周前瞻：京东、百度、蔚来、网易等财报来袭！","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1115095397","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"本周，经济数据方面，中国将公布多项重磅经济数据，包括10月社会消费品零售总额等、美国10月零售销售数据将公布。财经大事方面，除了关注美联储官员讲话，本周市场焦点依旧是围绕英欧贸易谈判、疫苗及美国大选进","content":"<blockquote>本周，经济数据方面，中国将公布多项重磅经济数据，包括10月社会消费品零售总额等、美国10月零售销售数据将公布。财经大事方面，除了关注美联储官员讲话，本周市场焦点依旧是围绕英欧贸易谈判、疫苗及美国大选进展的一些不确定性交易。<b>财报方面，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JD\">京东</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BIDU\">百度</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO\">蔚来</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NTES\">网易</a>等明星股将陆续公布财报。新股方面，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/09666\">金科服务</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/01516\">融创服务</a>、德琪医药等将在港交所挂牌上市，完美日记母公司<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/YSG\">逸仙电商</a>将在纽交所挂牌上市。</b></blockquote><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a3a9c535fee8de3061d0aab77767c16a\" tg-width=\"1296\" tg-height=\"1208\"></p><p><b>周一(11月16日)关键词：日本GDP、中国多项重磅经济数据，京东、百度、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BEKE\">贝壳</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/IQ\">爱奇艺</a>财报</b></p><p>财报方面：<b>京东</b>、搜狗、搜狐（美股盘前）；<b>百度、爱奇艺</b>、贝壳、欢聚集团、万国数据（美股盘后）</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/58cbbc6616e9f19a167c7c3015b25e2d\" tg-width=\"631\" tg-height=\"397\"></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a27ce0d2d1de20fc835b6a889c6dc9ea\" tg-width=\"955\" tg-height=\"517\">中国将迎来多项重磅经济数据，包括10月社会消费品零售总额，中国10月城镇固定资产投资，中国10月规模以上工业增加值等。另外，国家统计局将发布70个大中城市住宅销售价格月度报告。</p><p>此外，根据以往日程安排，伯克希尔·哈撒韦、对冲基金Paulson &amp; Co.或将于今日向美国证交会提交13F季度报告，披露其持仓情况，值得投资者密切关注。</p><p><b>周二(11月17日)关键词：美国零售销售、OPEC+会议，蔚来、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WMT\">沃尔玛</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/HD\">家得宝</a>财报</b></p><p>财报方面：<b>沃尔玛</b>、<b>Sea</b>、家得宝（美股盘前），<b>蔚来</b>（美股盘后）</p><p>新股方面：上坤地产集团、金科服务在港交所挂牌上市</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d329db98b78d66cc5a336c50b29d3ffc\" tg-width=\"629\" tg-height=\"279\"></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6274c3a7c9a9f180f835c096be2e8094\" tg-width=\"955\" tg-height=\"416\"></p><p>经济数据方面，美国10月零售销售数据将公布，即“恐怖数据”，主要是形容该数据很受市场关注，容易引起市场剧烈波动，因零售销售数据能直接反映消费情况，对经济有重要指引作用。市场预期10月零售销售数据可能增速放缓，因美国二次疫情愈演愈烈，且美国新一轮财政刺激计划迟迟不出台，市场消费能力下降。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fa66335c1f0add147e95167bf268b029\" tg-width=\"731\" tg-height=\"442\"></p><p>另外，美国10月工业产出数据也将公布，市场预期工业产出和制造业产出将迎来复苏，就目前看来美国制造业已经明显复苏，但服务业和劳动力市场仍较为疲软。</p><p>尽管本周疫苗迎来重大进展，但美国经济不会很快复苏，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/UBS\">瑞银</a>董事长Axel&nbsp;Weber发出警告，从疫情中恢复是一个相当长的过程，即便疫苗投入使用，全球GDP回到危机前水平也至少需要一年，就业数据和经济增长的恢复则需要1-2年时间。</p><p>财经大事方面，进一步关注美联储副主席克拉里达就经济前景发表讲话。</p><p>OPEC+举行联合部长级监督委员会(JMMC)会议。本次会议将聚焦明年的行动计划，沙特此前表示，OPEC+可能对减产协议进行调整，力度较分析师预期更大。OPEC+可能将减产协议延长至2022年全年，OPEC+将应对一切，包括利比亚局势。</p><p><b>周三(11月18日)关键词：两大库存报告、多国CPI、美国新屋开工数据，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">英伟达</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/KC\">金山云</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BILI\">哔哩哔哩</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ZTO\">中通快递</a>财报</b></p><p>财报方面：<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TGT\">塔吉特</a>、金山云（盘前），中通快递、<b>哔哩哔哩</b>、<b>英伟达</b>（盘后）</p><p>新股方面：祥生控股、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/01795\">亚东集团</a>在港交所挂牌上市，融创服务公布中签结果及开启暗盘</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/10a9f4decedd3388fbd02bbc735cf698\" tg-width=\"630\" tg-height=\"803\"></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5abfc54c2ffcab32346931e986ff3f4f\" tg-width=\"953\" tg-height=\"473\"></p><p>周三最为关键的依旧是油市两大库存报告，本周库存报告显示数据出现较大分歧，美国石油协会(API)公布数据显示，上周美国原油、汽油和精炼油库存降幅均超出预期。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2372b1b0764744908349862772b02d0a\" tg-width=\"606\" tg-height=\"121\"></p><p>不过，美国EIA公布的数据显示，截至11月6日当周美国除却战略储备的商业原油库存意外大幅度增加，超出预期，不过，精炼油库存和汽油库存降幅超预期。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f0bfe29982ecdfeb7a818a04fec8d1af\" tg-width=\"607\" tg-height=\"160\"></p><p>民主党掌控国会两院的可能性逐渐消退并导致通货再膨胀交易主题破灭两天之后，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/C\">花旗</a>集团和巴克莱又看到了复苏的迹象，花旗表示，虽然民主党无法掌控参议院意味着任何财政刺激规模都可能较小，但美联储刺激力度增大的前景增强了债券市场中通胀挂钩交易的吸引力。与此同时，巴克莱表示，当美国国债收益率从本周触及的低点反弹时，价值股将会受益。这与华尔街的共识相悖，华尔街普遍认为，在经济增长疲弱和通货膨胀率低的时代，价值股投资策略已经失败。</p><p><b>周四(11月19日)关键词：美国初请失业、网易、有道、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BEST\">百世集团</a>财报，逸仙电商IPO</b></p><p>财报方面：<b>网易</b>、网易有道、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/M\">梅西百货</a>（盘前），百世集团、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/QFIN\">360数科</a>（盘后）</p><p>新股方面：融创服务正式在港交所挂牌上市，德琪医药公布中签结果及开启暗盘，<b>逸仙电商</b>美股上市</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/24b2e042fe82e19a683062fe597e92e3\" tg-width=\"631\" tg-height=\"278\"></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/020dfc4ad36f577a7ad1ba948c3406af\" tg-width=\"957\" tg-height=\"533\"></p><p>市场继续关注美联储官员讲话，美国大选的动荡及刺激计划的难产可能令美联储被动扩大宽松。</p><p>FOMC永久票委、纽约联储主席<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WMB\">威廉姆斯</a>发表讲话。2020年票委、达拉斯联储主席卡普兰发表讲话。2020年FOMC票委、克利夫兰联储主席梅斯特在该行组织的2020年金融稳定线上会议致开幕词和开场白。</p><p><b>周五(11月20日)关键词：欧元区消费信心，跟谁学财报，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/06996\">德琪医药-B</a>上市</b></p><p>财报方面：跟谁学（美股盘前）</p><p>新股方面：德琪医药在港交所挂牌上市</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/902b5272692cb37e92f810fb3073fb47\" tg-width=\"631\" tg-height=\"395\"></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3287dd621f00e90d7e8e6f5c9df09b7f\" tg-width=\"958\" tg-height=\"310\"></p><p>2020年FOMC票委、克利夫兰联储主席梅斯特发表讲话。2020年FOMC票委、达拉斯联储主席卡普兰发表讲话。</p><p>NYMEX纽约原油12月期货受移仓换月影响，11月21日凌晨3:30完成场内最后交易，凌晨6:00完成电子盘最后交易，请留意交易场所到期换月公告控制风险。此外部分交易平台美油合约到期时间通常较NYMEX官方提前一天，请多加留意。</p><p>另外，<b>周六凌晨，美国11月20日当周石油钻井总数将公布，进一步关注美国页岩油产业复苏情况，美国原油产量也是市场焦点。</b></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>本周前瞻：京东、百度、蔚来、网易等财报来袭！</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n本周前瞻：京东、百度、蔚来、网易等财报来袭！\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2020-11-16 07:02</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<blockquote>本周，经济数据方面，中国将公布多项重磅经济数据，包括10月社会消费品零售总额等、美国10月零售销售数据将公布。财经大事方面，除了关注美联储官员讲话，本周市场焦点依旧是围绕英欧贸易谈判、疫苗及美国大选进展的一些不确定性交易。<b>财报方面，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JD\">京东</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BIDU\">百度</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO\">蔚来</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NTES\">网易</a>等明星股将陆续公布财报。新股方面，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/09666\">金科服务</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/01516\">融创服务</a>、德琪医药等将在港交所挂牌上市，完美日记母公司<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/YSG\">逸仙电商</a>将在纽交所挂牌上市。</b></blockquote><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a3a9c535fee8de3061d0aab77767c16a\" tg-width=\"1296\" tg-height=\"1208\"></p><p><b>周一(11月16日)关键词：日本GDP、中国多项重磅经济数据，京东、百度、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BEKE\">贝壳</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/IQ\">爱奇艺</a>财报</b></p><p>财报方面：<b>京东</b>、搜狗、搜狐（美股盘前）；<b>百度、爱奇艺</b>、贝壳、欢聚集团、万国数据（美股盘后）</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/58cbbc6616e9f19a167c7c3015b25e2d\" tg-width=\"631\" tg-height=\"397\"></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a27ce0d2d1de20fc835b6a889c6dc9ea\" tg-width=\"955\" tg-height=\"517\">中国将迎来多项重磅经济数据，包括10月社会消费品零售总额，中国10月城镇固定资产投资，中国10月规模以上工业增加值等。另外，国家统计局将发布70个大中城市住宅销售价格月度报告。</p><p>此外，根据以往日程安排，伯克希尔·哈撒韦、对冲基金Paulson &amp; Co.或将于今日向美国证交会提交13F季度报告，披露其持仓情况，值得投资者密切关注。</p><p><b>周二(11月17日)关键词：美国零售销售、OPEC+会议，蔚来、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WMT\">沃尔玛</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/HD\">家得宝</a>财报</b></p><p>财报方面：<b>沃尔玛</b>、<b>Sea</b>、家得宝（美股盘前），<b>蔚来</b>（美股盘后）</p><p>新股方面：上坤地产集团、金科服务在港交所挂牌上市</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d329db98b78d66cc5a336c50b29d3ffc\" tg-width=\"629\" tg-height=\"279\"></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6274c3a7c9a9f180f835c096be2e8094\" tg-width=\"955\" tg-height=\"416\"></p><p>经济数据方面，美国10月零售销售数据将公布，即“恐怖数据”，主要是形容该数据很受市场关注，容易引起市场剧烈波动，因零售销售数据能直接反映消费情况，对经济有重要指引作用。市场预期10月零售销售数据可能增速放缓，因美国二次疫情愈演愈烈，且美国新一轮财政刺激计划迟迟不出台，市场消费能力下降。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fa66335c1f0add147e95167bf268b029\" tg-width=\"731\" tg-height=\"442\"></p><p>另外，美国10月工业产出数据也将公布，市场预期工业产出和制造业产出将迎来复苏，就目前看来美国制造业已经明显复苏，但服务业和劳动力市场仍较为疲软。</p><p>尽管本周疫苗迎来重大进展，但美国经济不会很快复苏，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/UBS\">瑞银</a>董事长Axel&nbsp;Weber发出警告，从疫情中恢复是一个相当长的过程，即便疫苗投入使用，全球GDP回到危机前水平也至少需要一年，就业数据和经济增长的恢复则需要1-2年时间。</p><p>财经大事方面，进一步关注美联储副主席克拉里达就经济前景发表讲话。</p><p>OPEC+举行联合部长级监督委员会(JMMC)会议。本次会议将聚焦明年的行动计划，沙特此前表示，OPEC+可能对减产协议进行调整，力度较分析师预期更大。OPEC+可能将减产协议延长至2022年全年，OPEC+将应对一切，包括利比亚局势。</p><p><b>周三(11月18日)关键词：两大库存报告、多国CPI、美国新屋开工数据，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">英伟达</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/KC\">金山云</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BILI\">哔哩哔哩</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ZTO\">中通快递</a>财报</b></p><p>财报方面：<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TGT\">塔吉特</a>、金山云（盘前），中通快递、<b>哔哩哔哩</b>、<b>英伟达</b>（盘后）</p><p>新股方面：祥生控股、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/01795\">亚东集团</a>在港交所挂牌上市，融创服务公布中签结果及开启暗盘</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/10a9f4decedd3388fbd02bbc735cf698\" tg-width=\"630\" tg-height=\"803\"></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5abfc54c2ffcab32346931e986ff3f4f\" tg-width=\"953\" tg-height=\"473\"></p><p>周三最为关键的依旧是油市两大库存报告，本周库存报告显示数据出现较大分歧，美国石油协会(API)公布数据显示，上周美国原油、汽油和精炼油库存降幅均超出预期。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2372b1b0764744908349862772b02d0a\" tg-width=\"606\" tg-height=\"121\"></p><p>不过，美国EIA公布的数据显示，截至11月6日当周美国除却战略储备的商业原油库存意外大幅度增加，超出预期，不过，精炼油库存和汽油库存降幅超预期。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f0bfe29982ecdfeb7a818a04fec8d1af\" tg-width=\"607\" tg-height=\"160\"></p><p>民主党掌控国会两院的可能性逐渐消退并导致通货再膨胀交易主题破灭两天之后，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/C\">花旗</a>集团和巴克莱又看到了复苏的迹象，花旗表示，虽然民主党无法掌控参议院意味着任何财政刺激规模都可能较小，但美联储刺激力度增大的前景增强了债券市场中通胀挂钩交易的吸引力。与此同时，巴克莱表示，当美国国债收益率从本周触及的低点反弹时，价值股将会受益。这与华尔街的共识相悖，华尔街普遍认为，在经济增长疲弱和通货膨胀率低的时代，价值股投资策略已经失败。</p><p><b>周四(11月19日)关键词：美国初请失业、网易、有道、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BEST\">百世集团</a>财报，逸仙电商IPO</b></p><p>财报方面：<b>网易</b>、网易有道、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/M\">梅西百货</a>（盘前），百世集团、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/QFIN\">360数科</a>（盘后）</p><p>新股方面：融创服务正式在港交所挂牌上市，德琪医药公布中签结果及开启暗盘，<b>逸仙电商</b>美股上市</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/24b2e042fe82e19a683062fe597e92e3\" tg-width=\"631\" tg-height=\"278\"></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/020dfc4ad36f577a7ad1ba948c3406af\" tg-width=\"957\" tg-height=\"533\"></p><p>市场继续关注美联储官员讲话，美国大选的动荡及刺激计划的难产可能令美联储被动扩大宽松。</p><p>FOMC永久票委、纽约联储主席<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WMB\">威廉姆斯</a>发表讲话。2020年票委、达拉斯联储主席卡普兰发表讲话。2020年FOMC票委、克利夫兰联储主席梅斯特在该行组织的2020年金融稳定线上会议致开幕词和开场白。</p><p><b>周五(11月20日)关键词：欧元区消费信心，跟谁学财报，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/06996\">德琪医药-B</a>上市</b></p><p>财报方面：跟谁学（美股盘前）</p><p>新股方面：德琪医药在港交所挂牌上市</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/902b5272692cb37e92f810fb3073fb47\" tg-width=\"631\" tg-height=\"395\"></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3287dd621f00e90d7e8e6f5c9df09b7f\" tg-width=\"958\" tg-height=\"310\"></p><p>2020年FOMC票委、克利夫兰联储主席梅斯特发表讲话。2020年FOMC票委、达拉斯联储主席卡普兰发表讲话。</p><p>NYMEX纽约原油12月期货受移仓换月影响，11月21日凌晨3:30完成场内最后交易，凌晨6:00完成电子盘最后交易，请留意交易场所到期换月公告控制风险。此外部分交易平台美油合约到期时间通常较NYMEX官方提前一天，请多加留意。</p><p>另外，<b>周六凌晨，美国11月20日当周石油钻井总数将公布，进一步关注美国页岩油产业复苏情况，美国原油产量也是市场焦点。</b></p>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2bb1a14860f7146970299d843f568d47","relate_stocks":{"399001":"深证成指","399006":"创业板指","09999":"网易-S","IQ":"爱奇艺",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","NTES":"网易","BIDU":"百度","NVDA":"英伟达","BILI":"哔哩哔哩","01516":"融创服务","NIO":"蔚来","DAO":"有道","BEKE":"贝壳",".DJI":"道琼斯",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","HSI":"恒生指数","JD":"京东","000001.SH":"上证指数"},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1115095397","content_text":"本周，经济数据方面，中国将公布多项重磅经济数据，包括10月社会消费品零售总额等、美国10月零售销售数据将公布。财经大事方面，除了关注美联储官员讲话，本周市场焦点依旧是围绕英欧贸易谈判、疫苗及美国大选进展的一些不确定性交易。财报方面，京东、百度、蔚来、网易等明星股将陆续公布财报。新股方面，金科服务、融创服务、德琪医药等将在港交所挂牌上市，完美日记母公司逸仙电商将在纽交所挂牌上市。周一(11月16日)关键词：日本GDP、中国多项重磅经济数据，京东、百度、贝壳、爱奇艺财报财报方面：京东、搜狗、搜狐（美股盘前）；百度、爱奇艺、贝壳、欢聚集团、万国数据（美股盘后）中国将迎来多项重磅经济数据，包括10月社会消费品零售总额，中国10月城镇固定资产投资，中国10月规模以上工业增加值等。另外，国家统计局将发布70个大中城市住宅销售价格月度报告。此外，根据以往日程安排，伯克希尔·哈撒韦、对冲基金Paulson & Co.或将于今日向美国证交会提交13F季度报告，披露其持仓情况，值得投资者密切关注。周二(11月17日)关键词：美国零售销售、OPEC+会议，蔚来、沃尔玛、家得宝财报财报方面：沃尔玛、Sea、家得宝（美股盘前），蔚来（美股盘后）新股方面：上坤地产集团、金科服务在港交所挂牌上市经济数据方面，美国10月零售销售数据将公布，即“恐怖数据”，主要是形容该数据很受市场关注，容易引起市场剧烈波动，因零售销售数据能直接反映消费情况，对经济有重要指引作用。市场预期10月零售销售数据可能增速放缓，因美国二次疫情愈演愈烈，且美国新一轮财政刺激计划迟迟不出台，市场消费能力下降。另外，美国10月工业产出数据也将公布，市场预期工业产出和制造业产出将迎来复苏，就目前看来美国制造业已经明显复苏，但服务业和劳动力市场仍较为疲软。尽管本周疫苗迎来重大进展，但美国经济不会很快复苏，瑞银董事长Axel Weber发出警告，从疫情中恢复是一个相当长的过程，即便疫苗投入使用，全球GDP回到危机前水平也至少需要一年，就业数据和经济增长的恢复则需要1-2年时间。财经大事方面，进一步关注美联储副主席克拉里达就经济前景发表讲话。OPEC+举行联合部长级监督委员会(JMMC)会议。本次会议将聚焦明年的行动计划，沙特此前表示，OPEC+可能对减产协议进行调整，力度较分析师预期更大。OPEC+可能将减产协议延长至2022年全年，OPEC+将应对一切，包括利比亚局势。周三(11月18日)关键词：两大库存报告、多国CPI、美国新屋开工数据，英伟达、金山云、哔哩哔哩、中通快递财报财报方面：塔吉特、金山云（盘前），中通快递、哔哩哔哩、英伟达（盘后）新股方面：祥生控股、亚东集团在港交所挂牌上市，融创服务公布中签结果及开启暗盘周三最为关键的依旧是油市两大库存报告，本周库存报告显示数据出现较大分歧，美国石油协会(API)公布数据显示，上周美国原油、汽油和精炼油库存降幅均超出预期。不过，美国EIA公布的数据显示，截至11月6日当周美国除却战略储备的商业原油库存意外大幅度增加，超出预期，不过，精炼油库存和汽油库存降幅超预期。民主党掌控国会两院的可能性逐渐消退并导致通货再膨胀交易主题破灭两天之后，花旗集团和巴克莱又看到了复苏的迹象，花旗表示，虽然民主党无法掌控参议院意味着任何财政刺激规模都可能较小，但美联储刺激力度增大的前景增强了债券市场中通胀挂钩交易的吸引力。与此同时，巴克莱表示，当美国国债收益率从本周触及的低点反弹时，价值股将会受益。这与华尔街的共识相悖，华尔街普遍认为，在经济增长疲弱和通货膨胀率低的时代，价值股投资策略已经失败。周四(11月19日)关键词：美国初请失业、网易、有道、百世集团财报，逸仙电商IPO财报方面：网易、网易有道、梅西百货（盘前），百世集团、360数科（盘后）新股方面：融创服务正式在港交所挂牌上市，德琪医药公布中签结果及开启暗盘，逸仙电商美股上市市场继续关注美联储官员讲话，美国大选的动荡及刺激计划的难产可能令美联储被动扩大宽松。FOMC永久票委、纽约联储主席威廉姆斯发表讲话。2020年票委、达拉斯联储主席卡普兰发表讲话。2020年FOMC票委、克利夫兰联储主席梅斯特在该行组织的2020年金融稳定线上会议致开幕词和开场白。周五(11月20日)关键词：欧元区消费信心，跟谁学财报，德琪医药-B上市财报方面：跟谁学（美股盘前）新股方面：德琪医药在港交所挂牌上市2020年FOMC票委、克利夫兰联储主席梅斯特发表讲话。2020年FOMC票委、达拉斯联储主席卡普兰发表讲话。NYMEX纽约原油12月期货受移仓换月影响，11月21日凌晨3:30完成场内最后交易，凌晨6:00完成电子盘最后交易，请留意交易场所到期换月公告控制风险。此外部分交易平台美油合约到期时间通常较NYMEX官方提前一天，请多加留意。另外，周六凌晨，美国11月20日当周石油钻井总数将公布，进一步关注美国页岩油产业复苏情况，美国原油产量也是市场焦点。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":240,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":977092607,"gmtCreate":1601363007309,"gmtModify":1703824050820,"author":{"id":"3558352300031479","authorId":"3558352300031479","name":"雨清淞","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0026c03d700167f4ac3307cc84cfc997","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3558352300031479","authorIdStr":"3558352300031479"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"互相抵毁","listText":"互相抵毁","text":"互相抵毁","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/977092607","repostId":"1167477218","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1167477218","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据，旨在帮助投资者理解世界，做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1601341964,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1167477218?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2020-09-29 09:12","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"美国总统首场辩论前瞻！市场会有怎样反应？","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1167477218","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"北京时间9月30日9：00至10：30（美东时间晚21：00-22：30），美国将举行首次总统竞选辩论。辩论包括六大议题，分别是特朗普和拜登个人的记录、最高法院、新冠肺炎、美国经济、美国城市的种族和暴","content":"<p>北京时间9月30日9：00至10：30（美东时间晚21：00-22：30），美国将举行首次总统竞选辩论。辩论包括六大议题，分别是特朗普和拜登个人的记录、最高法院、新冠肺炎、美国经济、美国城市的种族和暴力问题、大选的公正性。辩论主持人是福克斯新闻的华莱士（Chris Wallace）。由于一些州的邮寄形式投票已经开始或即将开始，今年的首场辩论将尤为重要。</p><p>特朗普此前一再质疑拜登的体力和头脑敏锐度问题，反而降低了人们对拜登在辩论中的表现的期望值（特朗普的竞选团队最近才认识到这一点，反而开始夸奖拜登以往辩论中的佳绩，比如2012年对阵Paul Ryan时轻松获胜。但特朗普本人则一直到上周末都还叫嚷着要拜登进行药检，指称其在初选后期的辩论是吃了药才表现良好的）。现任总统在寻求连任的首场辩论中往往表现逊色，因为他们通常对那种环境很陌生（在任的总统不会经常在电视直播中碰到发难和指责），这也是奥巴马和小布什都在第二次选战的首场辩论中失利的原因。但特朗普是另类，他每天都有新闻发布会召开，有时是隔几小时就来一次发布会，很多发布会都要面对外界很大的敌意。这种经历将给他周二晚的辩论带来很大帮助。不过，在那些发布会上，特朗普有权利让那些会问到他不喜欢的问题的记者闭嘴，而在首场辩论中，他不会那么容易避免碰上那种问题。</p><p>拜登如果失败会败得很惨，但同样如果获胜也会收益很大。相比特朗普，拜登的民调数据可能对本周二晚的辩论结果更为敏感，尤其是对不利的形势更敏感。比如拜登一旦表现不佳，他的民调支持率会大受影响，而特朗普的支持率虽然较低，但很稳定，看上去不可能会跌破支持率的底线（全国的30%-40%之间）。在目前的民调中（全国范围和各个战场州），拜登占优势，但特朗普有很高的“热情”优势，这意味着，相比特朗普，选民放弃拜登的速度可能快得多。尽管拜登的政治生涯很长，但此次辩论是他在很长一段时间内的最大曝光，因此在很大程度上，他需要在全国民众心目中重新塑造形象，包括减轻人们对他担任总统的体力和脑力的担忧，而且也要打消对他是某种社会主义候选人的担忧（他的反对者已经不止一次这样暗示）。不过，拜登也很可能胜出。如果他在辩论中表现稳健，有助于扩大并强化他的民调领先优势，让特朗普无法赶上和他的差距。</p><p>最有可能的情形是拜登赢得辩论。特朗普很擅长在电视上沟通，如果他得以掌控全程（比如他可以挑选问问题的记者，一旦对话涉及到他不满意的方面，可以立即打断记者，或者在听到记者问出他不想听的问题时干脆走开），他将会拿出个人的最佳表现。不过，他本周二晚不会有多少掌控权，因为主持人华莱士很有公信度，不卑不亢，他就没有躲避的空间，可能会很麻烦。再加上外界对拜登的期望值低，那么拜登就有可能在周二辩论中超预期发挥，可能成为赢家。当然，可能令拜登应对困难的情况是特朗普对其儿子Hunter事件咬住不放。</p><p>市场会怎样反应？对股市来说，11月大选的最佳结果是，拜登当选，同时共和党保持参议院的多数席位，因为这可以同时降低贸易和税务方面的风险。而相比于民主党同时获得白宫和参议院，市场更青睐共和党同时保持白宫和参议院的情形。因此，如果拜登在首场辩论中大赢，会让市场增加对民主党人大获全胜的预期，在一定程度上降低风险偏好。</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE 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}\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n美国总统首场辩论前瞻！市场会有怎样反应？\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2020-09-29 09:12</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>北京时间9月30日9：00至10：30（美东时间晚21：00-22：30），美国将举行首次总统竞选辩论。辩论包括六大议题，分别是特朗普和拜登个人的记录、最高法院、新冠肺炎、美国经济、美国城市的种族和暴力问题、大选的公正性。辩论主持人是福克斯新闻的华莱士（Chris Wallace）。由于一些州的邮寄形式投票已经开始或即将开始，今年的首场辩论将尤为重要。</p><p>特朗普此前一再质疑拜登的体力和头脑敏锐度问题，反而降低了人们对拜登在辩论中的表现的期望值（特朗普的竞选团队最近才认识到这一点，反而开始夸奖拜登以往辩论中的佳绩，比如2012年对阵Paul Ryan时轻松获胜。但特朗普本人则一直到上周末都还叫嚷着要拜登进行药检，指称其在初选后期的辩论是吃了药才表现良好的）。现任总统在寻求连任的首场辩论中往往表现逊色，因为他们通常对那种环境很陌生（在任的总统不会经常在电视直播中碰到发难和指责），这也是奥巴马和小布什都在第二次选战的首场辩论中失利的原因。但特朗普是另类，他每天都有新闻发布会召开，有时是隔几小时就来一次发布会，很多发布会都要面对外界很大的敌意。这种经历将给他周二晚的辩论带来很大帮助。不过，在那些发布会上，特朗普有权利让那些会问到他不喜欢的问题的记者闭嘴，而在首场辩论中，他不会那么容易避免碰上那种问题。</p><p>拜登如果失败会败得很惨，但同样如果获胜也会收益很大。相比特朗普，拜登的民调数据可能对本周二晚的辩论结果更为敏感，尤其是对不利的形势更敏感。比如拜登一旦表现不佳，他的民调支持率会大受影响，而特朗普的支持率虽然较低，但很稳定，看上去不可能会跌破支持率的底线（全国的30%-40%之间）。在目前的民调中（全国范围和各个战场州），拜登占优势，但特朗普有很高的“热情”优势，这意味着，相比特朗普，选民放弃拜登的速度可能快得多。尽管拜登的政治生涯很长，但此次辩论是他在很长一段时间内的最大曝光，因此在很大程度上，他需要在全国民众心目中重新塑造形象，包括减轻人们对他担任总统的体力和脑力的担忧，而且也要打消对他是某种社会主义候选人的担忧（他的反对者已经不止一次这样暗示）。不过，拜登也很可能胜出。如果他在辩论中表现稳健，有助于扩大并强化他的民调领先优势，让特朗普无法赶上和他的差距。</p><p>最有可能的情形是拜登赢得辩论。特朗普很擅长在电视上沟通，如果他得以掌控全程（比如他可以挑选问问题的记者，一旦对话涉及到他不满意的方面，可以立即打断记者，或者在听到记者问出他不想听的问题时干脆走开），他将会拿出个人的最佳表现。不过，他本周二晚不会有多少掌控权，因为主持人华莱士很有公信度，不卑不亢，他就没有躲避的空间，可能会很麻烦。再加上外界对拜登的期望值低，那么拜登就有可能在周二辩论中超预期发挥，可能成为赢家。当然，可能令拜登应对困难的情况是特朗普对其儿子Hunter事件咬住不放。</p><p>市场会怎样反应？对股市来说，11月大选的最佳结果是，拜登当选，同时共和党保持参议院的多数席位，因为这可以同时降低贸易和税务方面的风险。而相比于民主党同时获得白宫和参议院，市场更青睐共和党同时保持白宫和参议院的情形。因此，如果拜登在首场辩论中大赢，会让市场增加对民主党人大获全胜的预期，在一定程度上降低风险偏好。</p>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e2e1704f0a16ec496b62f5900ef515c0","relate_stocks":{},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1167477218","content_text":"北京时间9月30日9：00至10：30（美东时间晚21：00-22：30），美国将举行首次总统竞选辩论。辩论包括六大议题，分别是特朗普和拜登个人的记录、最高法院、新冠肺炎、美国经济、美国城市的种族和暴力问题、大选的公正性。辩论主持人是福克斯新闻的华莱士（Chris Wallace）。由于一些州的邮寄形式投票已经开始或即将开始，今年的首场辩论将尤为重要。特朗普此前一再质疑拜登的体力和头脑敏锐度问题，反而降低了人们对拜登在辩论中的表现的期望值（特朗普的竞选团队最近才认识到这一点，反而开始夸奖拜登以往辩论中的佳绩，比如2012年对阵Paul Ryan时轻松获胜。但特朗普本人则一直到上周末都还叫嚷着要拜登进行药检，指称其在初选后期的辩论是吃了药才表现良好的）。现任总统在寻求连任的首场辩论中往往表现逊色，因为他们通常对那种环境很陌生（在任的总统不会经常在电视直播中碰到发难和指责），这也是奥巴马和小布什都在第二次选战的首场辩论中失利的原因。但特朗普是另类，他每天都有新闻发布会召开，有时是隔几小时就来一次发布会，很多发布会都要面对外界很大的敌意。这种经历将给他周二晚的辩论带来很大帮助。不过，在那些发布会上，特朗普有权利让那些会问到他不喜欢的问题的记者闭嘴，而在首场辩论中，他不会那么容易避免碰上那种问题。拜登如果失败会败得很惨，但同样如果获胜也会收益很大。相比特朗普，拜登的民调数据可能对本周二晚的辩论结果更为敏感，尤其是对不利的形势更敏感。比如拜登一旦表现不佳，他的民调支持率会大受影响，而特朗普的支持率虽然较低，但很稳定，看上去不可能会跌破支持率的底线（全国的30%-40%之间）。在目前的民调中（全国范围和各个战场州），拜登占优势，但特朗普有很高的“热情”优势，这意味着，相比特朗普，选民放弃拜登的速度可能快得多。尽管拜登的政治生涯很长，但此次辩论是他在很长一段时间内的最大曝光，因此在很大程度上，他需要在全国民众心目中重新塑造形象，包括减轻人们对他担任总统的体力和脑力的担忧，而且也要打消对他是某种社会主义候选人的担忧（他的反对者已经不止一次这样暗示）。不过，拜登也很可能胜出。如果他在辩论中表现稳健，有助于扩大并强化他的民调领先优势，让特朗普无法赶上和他的差距。最有可能的情形是拜登赢得辩论。特朗普很擅长在电视上沟通，如果他得以掌控全程（比如他可以挑选问问题的记者，一旦对话涉及到他不满意的方面，可以立即打断记者，或者在听到记者问出他不想听的问题时干脆走开），他将会拿出个人的最佳表现。不过，他本周二晚不会有多少掌控权，因为主持人华莱士很有公信度，不卑不亢，他就没有躲避的空间，可能会很麻烦。再加上外界对拜登的期望值低，那么拜登就有可能在周二辩论中超预期发挥，可能成为赢家。当然，可能令拜登应对困难的情况是特朗普对其儿子Hunter事件咬住不放。市场会怎样反应？对股市来说，11月大选的最佳结果是，拜登当选，同时共和党保持参议院的多数席位，因为这可以同时降低贸易和税务方面的风险。而相比于民主党同时获得白宫和参议院，市场更青睐共和党同时保持白宫和参议院的情形。因此，如果拜登在首场辩论中大赢，会让市场增加对民主党人大获全胜的预期，在一定程度上降低风险偏好。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":822,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":971884853,"gmtCreate":1598912426272,"gmtModify":1704220584295,"author":{"id":"3558352300031479","authorId":"3558352300031479","name":"雨清淞","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0026c03d700167f4ac3307cc84cfc997","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3558352300031479","authorIdStr":"3558352300031479"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"手机好","listText":"手机好","text":"手机好","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/971884853","repostId":"979721505","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":979721505,"gmtCreate":1598364552407,"gmtModify":1704218531744,"author":{"id":"3536569104702744","authorId":"3536569104702744","name":"企业分析师","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3536569104702744","authorIdStr":"3536569104702744"},"themes":[],"title":"【小米十年有话说】我和小米的故事与未来","htmlText":"一等奖小米10Pro手机,这是我非常喜欢的一款手机，如果这篇文章能有幸为我赢得这份奖励与荣耀的话，那真是太棒了。截止到我写这篇文章时，港股账户里的小米集团盈利比例为:79.845%。浮盈已经够我买许多小米的产品了。但我仍然期待这份一等奖。这篇文章不仅会讲述我和小米的故事，更为主要的是以个人的视角来展望小米的未来。<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/01810\">$小米集团-W(01810)$</a> 我们都知道，买一家企业的股票就是买这家企业的未来，我非常看好小米，并且我完全没有依据技术分析，小道消息和任何的热点新闻来作为选择依据。并且我也不是行业内的从业人员，我从自身的视角选择了小米，并正如一位大师所讲：这极有可能是一只十倍股。未来极有可能上涨十倍，甚至几十倍。或者说我觉得小米在未来极有可能成为一家伟大的企业。或许很多人认为我疯了，他们的认为是有道理的。因为预测未来是非常困难的，而股票投资难就难在这一点上。但是我们也不要忘了：行情在悲观中产生，在怀疑中成长。当周围人都觉得你疯了时，你更要审慎的去思考：自己是否发现了一个大机会。接下来就让我们一起打开：我和小米的故事与未来。 那是在2015年，股市行情如火如荼。当时因为对股市的热情很高，几乎每天的大部分时间都在看手机上的股票行情，相信这也是今天许多股民在交易日的行为。所以想换部手机，考察了一些品牌，说实话对水果手机也是极度的向往，但刚入股市，收获颇少，资金全部集中买了股票，对于其它的开销也都是一再压缩，只为了把好钢用在刀刃上。但也真的希望选一款高性价比的手机，在低价格中选出良好的性能。之前就留意过，两位牙医朋友用的手机，外观漂亮，问了才知道是小米品牌。随即对小米有了一定的重视，为什么呢？牙医，一个领域的专业人士，对工作，对于每一个患者都是极其认真的，工作要求的精度极高。","listText":"一等奖小米10Pro手机,这是我非常喜欢的一款手机，如果这篇文章能有幸为我赢得这份奖励与荣耀的话，那真是太棒了。截止到我写这篇文章时，港股账户里的小米集团盈利比例为:79.845%。浮盈已经够我买许多小米的产品了。但我仍然期待这份一等奖。这篇文章不仅会讲述我和小米的故事，更为主要的是以个人的视角来展望小米的未来。<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/01810\">$小米集团-W(01810)$</a> 我们都知道，买一家企业的股票就是买这家企业的未来，我非常看好小米，并且我完全没有依据技术分析，小道消息和任何的热点新闻来作为选择依据。并且我也不是行业内的从业人员，我从自身的视角选择了小米，并正如一位大师所讲：这极有可能是一只十倍股。未来极有可能上涨十倍，甚至几十倍。或者说我觉得小米在未来极有可能成为一家伟大的企业。或许很多人认为我疯了，他们的认为是有道理的。因为预测未来是非常困难的，而股票投资难就难在这一点上。但是我们也不要忘了：行情在悲观中产生，在怀疑中成长。当周围人都觉得你疯了时，你更要审慎的去思考：自己是否发现了一个大机会。接下来就让我们一起打开：我和小米的故事与未来。 那是在2015年，股市行情如火如荼。当时因为对股市的热情很高，几乎每天的大部分时间都在看手机上的股票行情，相信这也是今天许多股民在交易日的行为。所以想换部手机，考察了一些品牌，说实话对水果手机也是极度的向往，但刚入股市，收获颇少，资金全部集中买了股票，对于其它的开销也都是一再压缩，只为了把好钢用在刀刃上。但也真的希望选一款高性价比的手机，在低价格中选出良好的性能。之前就留意过，两位牙医朋友用的手机，外观漂亮，问了才知道是小米品牌。随即对小米有了一定的重视，为什么呢？牙医，一个领域的专业人士，对工作，对于每一个患者都是极其认真的，工作要求的精度极高。","text":"一等奖小米10Pro手机,这是我非常喜欢的一款手机，如果这篇文章能有幸为我赢得这份奖励与荣耀的话，那真是太棒了。截止到我写这篇文章时，港股账户里的小米集团盈利比例为:79.845%。浮盈已经够我买许多小米的产品了。但我仍然期待这份一等奖。这篇文章不仅会讲述我和小米的故事，更为主要的是以个人的视角来展望小米的未来。$小米集团-W(01810)$ 我们都知道，买一家企业的股票就是买这家企业的未来，我非常看好小米，并且我完全没有依据技术分析，小道消息和任何的热点新闻来作为选择依据。并且我也不是行业内的从业人员，我从自身的视角选择了小米，并正如一位大师所讲：这极有可能是一只十倍股。未来极有可能上涨十倍，甚至几十倍。或者说我觉得小米在未来极有可能成为一家伟大的企业。或许很多人认为我疯了，他们的认为是有道理的。因为预测未来是非常困难的，而股票投资难就难在这一点上。但是我们也不要忘了：行情在悲观中产生，在怀疑中成长。当周围人都觉得你疯了时，你更要审慎的去思考：自己是否发现了一个大机会。接下来就让我们一起打开：我和小米的故事与未来。 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