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2021-10-11

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2021-10-11

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Visa Stock: Scalability And Buffett Value Line

2021-03-09

So real, it hurts [流泪]

The Stocks Rotation Ride Is Real, and Violent

2021-03-06

[得意]

What's the Outlook for Intuitive Surgical?

2021-02-05

[流泪]

Performance of funds invested in GameStop in past two weeks

2021-02-04

[冷漠]

GameStop climbs 12% in volatile premarket trade as Reddit traders dig in

2021-02-04

[财迷]

GLOBAL MARKETS-Asian stocks ease as caution persists despite calmer markets

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Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/826950513","repostId":"1174273121","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":705,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":826950368,"gmtCreate":1633966942738,"gmtModify":1633966942738,"author":{"id":"3555822052484377","authorId":"3555822052484377","name":"Tongs","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b0a38d6dcec089553bed2e9e999c283a","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Ok","listText":"Ok","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/826950368","repostId":"1174273121","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1174273121","pubTimestamp":1633965002,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1174273121?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-10-11 23:10","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Visa Stock: Scalability And Buffett Value Line","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1174273121","media":"Seeking Alpha","summary":"Summary\n\nThis article analyzes Visa from the perspective of its profit sustainability and scalabilit","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p>\n<ul>\n <li>This article analyzes Visa from the perspective of its profit sustainability and scalability.</li>\n <li>This analysis examines the most two important aspects of profit sustainability: return on capital employed (“ROCE”) and the marginal efficiency of capital.</li>\n <li>The results show that V not only earns a consistently high ROCE in the past but is still perfectly scalable at its current stage, indicating sustainable profit ahead.</li>\n <li>Lastly, this article also discusses its valuation, especially valuation adjusted for ROCE compared to other stocks that enjoy superb scalability using what I call the Buffett value line.</li>\n</ul>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ed4e9c2f1150ac54e1f764f98c0880f1\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1039\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Justin Sullivan/Getty Images News</span></p>\n<p><b>Investment thesis</b></p>\n<p>This article analyzes Visa Inc (V), with a focus on its profit sustainability and scalability. This analysis examines the most two important aspects of profit Sustainability: return on capital employed (“ROCE”) and marginal return on capital employed (“MROCE”). To me, ROCE and MROCE are the most two important metrics for analyzing a business. They reveal the two most fundamental aspects of the same central issue of profit Sustainability. ROCE tells us how profitable the business has been or is SO FAR. And MROCE sheds insights into which direction the profitability is likely to go.</p>\n<p>The results show that V not only earns a consistently high ROCE in the past but is still perfectly scalable at its current stage, indicating sustainable profit ahead. It is truly impressive for a business at such a staggering scale to maintain perfect scalability. Lastly, this article also discusses its valuation, especially valuation adjusted for ROCE and valuation compared to the other stocks that are exemplary scalable stocks (such as the FAAMG stocks and Buffett style stocks).</p>\n<p><b>The moat and the network effects</b></p>\n<p>V’s moat is in its scale and scalability, best demonstrated in the following two charts. The first chart shows the number of credit, debit, and prepaid cards in circulation worldwide from 2017 to 2019, with forecasts for 2023 and 2025. In 2019, there were 22.8 billion credit, debit, and prepaid cards in circulation worldwide. This figure is set to reach 29.31 billion by 2023, a 28% increase from the 2019 level. This figure will further increase to surpass 30 billion by 2025, a 34% increase from the 2019 level. In other words, the total cards in circulation will increase by more than 1/3 by 2025. The trend of digital transactions is unstoppable.</p>\n<p>The second chart shows that V, as the leading player in this space, will benefit the most from this secular trend. V is the world’s largest retail electronic payments network providing processing services and payment product platforms. This includes credit, debit, prepaid, and commercial payments, which are offered under the Visa, Visa Electron, Interlink, and PLUS brands. Visa/PLUS is one of the largest global ATM networks. V facilitates digital payments across more than 200 countries and territories. It has 3.6 billion cards in circulation, about 16% of the total number of cards in circulation globally. It processes a mindboggling amount of transactions – 206 billion payment transactions and a total transaction volume of $12.5 trillion in 2020 – an undisputed dominance of the payment network.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e261998de072e355b6f039912d0f1453\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"379\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Statista</span></p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/036bc8c94696fcfd8ed3403b699534c6\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"318\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Visa USA.</span></p>\n<p>Furthermore, it is unlikely that such dominance would change in the future (barring any major regulation or antitrust legislation change) due to the so-called \"network effects\". The network effects refer to the fact that the value of certain products or services increases as more people use them. In other words, certain networks become increasingly more valuable as they become bigger. Not every network enjoys this magic feature, and as a matter of fact, most networks suffer a diminishing marginal rate of return – i.e., the additional return decreases as the network becomes bigger – as to be elaborated later. A chain restaurant network is an example. As the network becomes larger, the nodes begin to compete against each other for customers and the return diminishes.</p>\n<p>But certain networks, like the services V provides, enjoy this magic trait – the network becomes more profitable as it becomes bigger. There is nothing new about the concept. It was true of railways, telephones, and fax machines. All these examples share these common traits: A) the larger the network becomes, the more valuable it becomes (one segment of a railway linking city A and B is far more valuable when this segment also links to other railways linking other cities); and B) the larger the network becomes, the higher the switching cost (if everyone uses a fax machine and you do not want to use one, good luck to you).</p>\n<p>Again, there is nothing new about the concept. But the internet age dramatically amplified the potency of the network effects. Once a lead is established – for whatever the reason – the network effects would just kick in, take over, and compound itself.</p>\n<p>It is a self-sustaining positive feedback loop: more users in this network will lead to more convenience, better efficiency, lower cost, which will make the network even better and more valuable for its users and clients, which will, in turn, attract more new users and clients to join and make it harder for existing users to leave, which again will lead back to more users and an even larger network. And such feedback will be reflected in a very high level of return on capital employed (“ROCE”) as to be seen later.</p>\n<p>Unfortunately, like all good things eventually run to an end, so do the benefits of the above network effects. At some point, gravity always catches up, and return begins to diminish. In the railway example, if enough railways have already been built to link all cities with high population density, building the next segment would suffer a diminished return now. In the fax machine example, if every office already has one, adding a second one to each office would also suffer a diminished return.</p>\n<p>Therefore, as investors, we do not only need to examine the ROCE, but also equally importantly, to examine the marginal return. Because the marginal return tells us if the business is still in a scalable stage, or if the business has already passed the tipping point of scalability and begins to see a diminishing return. In another word, MROCE let us see if the gravity of diminishing return has caught up yet or not.</p>\n<p>And the remainder of this article will examine both aspects next.</p>\n<p><b>Return on capital employed (“ROCE”)</b></p>\n<p>ROCE stands for the return on capital employed. Note that ROCE is different from the return on equity (and more fundamental and important in my view). ROCE considers the return of capital ACTUALLY employed, and therefore provides insight into how effectively the business uses its capital to earn a profit. Readers interested in the details of the ROCE analysis can find them in my&nbsp;earlier article. Here I will just summarize the results in the chart below. In these results, I considered the following items capital actually employed A) Working capital (including payables, receivables, inventory), B) Gross Property, Plant, and Equipment, C) Research and development expenses are capitalized, and D) the intangible book value, mainly consisting of intellectual property and patents for such a business.</p>\n<p>As seen, it was able to maintain an astronomical level of ROCE over the past decade: on average ~103%. To put things in perspective, the next chart compares V’s ROCE against the FAAMG stocks – a group of businesses that exploits the network effects to the extreme. As can be seen, V earns a very competitive ROCE among them – only second to Apple (AAPL). Every $1 of earning reinvested will fuel more than $1 of additional future earnings growth on average.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/877e3bb73de3e6c4fbab1a0133f74464\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"380\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: author and Seeking Alpha.</span></p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9f25b4c6dc0c7ee738ac345c3888ae11\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"395\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: author and Seeking Alpha.</span></p>\n<p>Introduction to marginal return on capital employed (“MROCE”)</p>\n<p>In addition to ROCE, an equally important concept is the marginal return on capital employed (“MROCE”). To me, ROCE and MROCE are the most two important metrics for analyzing a business. They reveal the most fundamental two aspects of the same central issue of profitability. ROCE tells us how profitable the business has been or is SO FAR. And MROCE sheds insights into which direction the profitability is likely to go.</p>\n<p>A bit of background and introduction for readers who are new to the concept. For readers familiar with the concept already, definitely skip this section. From what I’ve learned, the legendary economist John Maynard Keynes first explicitly expressed this concept, although people before him have observed and thought about it for some time already. What the concept tries to capture is a basic law in economic activities: the law of diminishing returns. Warren Buffett likes to say that interest rate acts like gravity on all economic activities. Well, diminishing returns act like gravity on all economic activities too, if not more so, as long as human nature does not change in any fundamental way.</p>\n<p>The next chart illustrates the concept. As long as shareholders are seeking profit, a public business will first invest its money at projects with the highest possible rate of return (i.e., picking the lowest hanging apples first or getting the most bang for the buck first). Therefore, the first batch of available resources is invested at a high rate of return – the highest the business can possibly identify. The second batch of money will have to be invested at a somewhat lower rate of return since the best ideas have been taken by the first batch of resources already, and so on. The last batch of money invested may earn a rate of return that is only above the cost of capital. And finally, the end result is a declining MROCE curve as shown.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f1cd59ec1a6da411c303c2bbccaf2425\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"460\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: author</span></p>\n<p>The ROCE we normally talk about and companies report refers to the average of this curve – averaging the return on all batches of money invested. Obviously, the average is very useful information by itself. It tells us how efficiently the business has been converting resources into profit so far – but its limitation is that it only tells us the efficiency of the resources that have already been invested SO FAR. What is of equal importance to investors is the MROCE, which tells us how much incremental profit the business WILL generate when the next batch of resources are invested.</p>\n<p>For investors, a dream business to invest in would be a business that enjoys a flat MROCE curve as shown by the solid blue line. This would be a business that is perfectly scalable. A business that earns a consistent and stable profit for every batch of resources invested. However, such a business is really only a dream business. I mentioned earlier that diminishing returns act like gravity on all economic activities - because they really do. There has been no business (at least not so far in human history) that can keep growing while at the same time maintaining a constant return on capital. At some point, gravity always catches up and the return begins to decline (as shown by the dashed blue line).</p>\n<p>V’s MROCE</p>\n<p>So for investors, the next best deal is to invest in a business that A) has a high and stable ROCE, and B) that is still in the scalable stage (the gravity of diminishing return has not caught up yet). And as shown in the next chart, V seems to be such a business at such a stage.</p>\n<p>This chart shows the MROCE and ROCE for V over recent years. The ROCE data are the same as those shown in the previous section. The MROCE data are estimated by the following steps. First, the capital employed was calculated for each year. Second, the earnings were calculated each year. Third, then the incremental of capital employed year over year was calculated. Similarly, the incremental earnings year over year were also calculated. And finally, the ratio between the incremental earnings and incremental capital employed was calculated to approximate the MROCE. During years when there were large fluctuations in either the incremental earnings or the capital employed, a multi-year running average was taken to smooth the fluctuations.</p>\n<p>Before we began to interpret the results, let me first clarify the difficulties of analyzing marginal return on capital and the limitations of the approach I used here. Firstly, it is just mathematically much harder to estimate the rate of change (e.g., which is what MROCE is essentially is) than the average change (which is what ROCE is essentially is). Estimating the latter involves dividing two large numbers and the uncertainties are small. Estimating the former requires dividing two small numbers and the uncertainties in the financial data can be magnified. Secondly, some capital investments in a business can take multiple years (more than 3 years) to bear fruit (or to fail). Therefore, isolating and tracking the marginal return produced by investments made in a given year is inherently difficult. Although most of the projects should begin to show results (either good or bad) in 3 years and this approach should be able to capture the dominating trend of marginal return.</p>\n<p>With the above understanding, let’s look at the results closely. First, note that the extraordinarily high MROCE during the early part of the decade again provides a strong illustration of the network effects and the secular trend that support the business at a fundamental level. The business model is just too good.</p>\n<p>The results in the chart also show that at this stage, V has been actually able to maintain an MROCE that actually is higher than the average ROCE in recent years. As seen, the ROCE has been on average 103% in recent years, and the MROCE has been on average 157%. It was significantly lower than the 350+% level in the earlier part of the decade – gravity always tries to catch up. But it is still higher than the ROCE by a good margin. And the gap is more than 50%, too large to be caused by the uncertainties in the financial data and rounding off errors. So this result suggests that V has not entered a stage of diminishing return yet - gravity has not caught up yet. And if the current MROCE continues, V’s ROCE will maintain its current high level or even further expand.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4cea9c214b6d0dd15d8f9c5c1392272e\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"398\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: author and Seeking Alpha data.</span></p>\n<p><b>Valuation</b></p>\n<p>After the above discussion of its profitability sustainability, let’s look at the valuation. At its current price levels, V’s PE is about 44x and FW PE is about 39.6x. The valuation is both high in absolute terms and also high in relative terms. For example, when compared to the FAAMG pack, V’s current valuation is only lower than Amazon (AMZN) in terms of the PE multiple and higher than all the others.</p>\n<p>It is not that meaningful to discuss valuation in isolation and without adjusting for the quality of the business. The next chart therefore also compares V valuation adjusted for its ROCE with its peers. If you are familiar with Buffett’s holdings, you would recognize that the stocks in this chart represent some of the large BRK holdings.</p>\n<p>I am not sure what the picture will look like as we add more data points on this chart (I do plan to organize my notes on other BRK major holdings and add more data points onto this plot). But with the few data points I have now, I cannot help drawing/seeing the green line - what I call a Buffett value line. It is a line linking AbbVie Inc (ABBV) and AAPL - a good business at a good price and a high-quality business at a high price. So from a value investor point of view, it only makes sense to make investments along this line or below it. Because investment along this line or below represents a trade-off between quality and price that is equivalent or better than ABBV or AAPL. It makes no sense to invest above this line, as anything above this line represents an inferior trade-off between quality and price - we'd be better off just investing in ABBV and AAPL.</p>\n<p>As you can see, V is currently way above the green line, showing a valuation that is only expensive by itself, but also when adjusted for its ROCE – even if it is superb ROCE.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6e9fbfdb9a53f0dac2386fcfaf067800\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"427\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: author and Seeking Alpha data.</span></p>\n<p><b>Catalysts and risks</b></p>\n<p>The long-term catalyst is the trend of digital transactions as mentioned at the beginning of the article. In my view, this trend is unstoppable. The expansive deployment of e-commerce platforms will further accelerate this transition.</p>\n<p>The most significant catalyst and also a risk at the same time in the near term is the direction and the pace of the economic recovery. If economic activities and especially travel activities resume to their normal level, V will benefit significantly, as commented by the CFO:</p>\n<blockquote>\n \"We have seen immediate impacts since popular travel destinations opened their borders. Greece opened borders in April, and inbound card-present spend rose nearly 30 points by the end of June relative to 2019 levels. France opened on June 9, and inbound card-present volumes rose nearly 20 points by the end of June relative to 2019 ... Since April, card-present cross-border spend in Mexico from the U.S. rose nearly 50 points to over 170% of 2019 levels.\"\n</blockquote>\n<blockquote>\n <i>Vasant Prabhu, Visa CFO (Q3 FY21 earnings call)</i>\n</blockquote>\n<p>In terms of risks, I see a valuation risk here as aforementioned. In terms of business fundamentals, I really do not see any risks in the near- or even long-term. The economic recovery from the pandemic mentioned above is not really a fundamental risk in my view. Even if it develops in the wrong direction and/or at a pace slower than expected, it is at most a temporary hiccup for V. The business model is too robust and too scalable. In the really long term, we can only speculate. The disruption from Fintechs and Crypto currency must be a potential risk in the long term. I suggest readers interested in these discussions to read the analysis published by&nbsp;Natalie Koo.</p>\n<p>Conclusion and final thought</p>\n<p>This article analyzes Visa Inc (V), with a focus on its profit sustainability and scalability. This analysis examines the most two important aspects of profit Sustainability: return on capital employed (“ROCE”) and marginal return on capital employed (“MROCE”). To me, ROCE and MROCE are the most two important metrics for analyzing a business. They reveal the two most fundamental aspects of the same central issue of profit Sustainability. ROCE tells us how profitable the business has been or is SO FAR. And MROCE sheds insights into which direction the profitability is likely to go.</p>\n<p>The results show that:</p>\n<ul>\n <li>V not only earns a consistently high ROCE in the past but is still perfectly scalable at its current stage, indicating sustainable profit ahead.</li>\n <li>The ROCE has been on average about 103% and compares very favorably against overachievers which are exemplary scalable stocks.</li>\n <li>And the MROCE has been on average 157% in recent years. So this result suggests that V has not reached the stage of diminishing return yet - gravity has not caught up yet. It is truly impressive for a business at such a staggering scale (which processes $15 trillion of transaction volume last year) to still maintain perfect scalability.</li>\n <li>Lastly, this article also discusses its valuation, especially valuation adjusted for ROCE compared to other stocks that enjoy superb scalability using what I call the Buffett value line. V is currently way above the value line, showing its valuation to be only expensive by itself, but also when adjusted for its ROCE – even if it is superb ROCE.</li>\n</ul>\n<p>As such, my final verdict is that it is still a perfectly scalable business, but it is more than perfectly priced. Investment at this point will take some time, patience, and commitment for the growth to catch up with the valuation. It is only for long-term committed investors (with at least 5+ years of time horizon) who could hold to it and sit out any potential near-term valuation volatilities.</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Visa Stock: Scalability And Buffett Value Line</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nVisa Stock: Scalability And Buffett Value Line\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-10-11 23:10 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4459179-visa-stock-scalability-and-buffett-value-line><strong>Seeking Alpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Summary\n\nThis article analyzes Visa from the perspective of its profit sustainability and scalability.\nThis analysis examines the most two important aspects of profit sustainability: return on capital...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4459179-visa-stock-scalability-and-buffett-value-line\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"V":"Visa"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4459179-visa-stock-scalability-and-buffett-value-line","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1174273121","content_text":"Summary\n\nThis article analyzes Visa from the perspective of its profit sustainability and scalability.\nThis analysis examines the most two important aspects of profit sustainability: return on capital employed (“ROCE”) and the marginal efficiency of capital.\nThe results show that V not only earns a consistently high ROCE in the past but is still perfectly scalable at its current stage, indicating sustainable profit ahead.\nLastly, this article also discusses its valuation, especially valuation adjusted for ROCE compared to other stocks that enjoy superb scalability using what I call the Buffett value line.\n\nJustin Sullivan/Getty Images News\nInvestment thesis\nThis article analyzes Visa Inc (V), with a focus on its profit sustainability and scalability. This analysis examines the most two important aspects of profit Sustainability: return on capital employed (“ROCE”) and marginal return on capital employed (“MROCE”). To me, ROCE and MROCE are the most two important metrics for analyzing a business. They reveal the two most fundamental aspects of the same central issue of profit Sustainability. ROCE tells us how profitable the business has been or is SO FAR. And MROCE sheds insights into which direction the profitability is likely to go.\nThe results show that V not only earns a consistently high ROCE in the past but is still perfectly scalable at its current stage, indicating sustainable profit ahead. It is truly impressive for a business at such a staggering scale to maintain perfect scalability. Lastly, this article also discusses its valuation, especially valuation adjusted for ROCE and valuation compared to the other stocks that are exemplary scalable stocks (such as the FAAMG stocks and Buffett style stocks).\nThe moat and the network effects\nV’s moat is in its scale and scalability, best demonstrated in the following two charts. The first chart shows the number of credit, debit, and prepaid cards in circulation worldwide from 2017 to 2019, with forecasts for 2023 and 2025. In 2019, there were 22.8 billion credit, debit, and prepaid cards in circulation worldwide. This figure is set to reach 29.31 billion by 2023, a 28% increase from the 2019 level. This figure will further increase to surpass 30 billion by 2025, a 34% increase from the 2019 level. In other words, the total cards in circulation will increase by more than 1/3 by 2025. The trend of digital transactions is unstoppable.\nThe second chart shows that V, as the leading player in this space, will benefit the most from this secular trend. V is the world’s largest retail electronic payments network providing processing services and payment product platforms. This includes credit, debit, prepaid, and commercial payments, which are offered under the Visa, Visa Electron, Interlink, and PLUS brands. Visa/PLUS is one of the largest global ATM networks. V facilitates digital payments across more than 200 countries and territories. It has 3.6 billion cards in circulation, about 16% of the total number of cards in circulation globally. It processes a mindboggling amount of transactions – 206 billion payment transactions and a total transaction volume of $12.5 trillion in 2020 – an undisputed dominance of the payment network.\nSource: Statista\nSource: Visa USA.\nFurthermore, it is unlikely that such dominance would change in the future (barring any major regulation or antitrust legislation change) due to the so-called \"network effects\". The network effects refer to the fact that the value of certain products or services increases as more people use them. In other words, certain networks become increasingly more valuable as they become bigger. Not every network enjoys this magic feature, and as a matter of fact, most networks suffer a diminishing marginal rate of return – i.e., the additional return decreases as the network becomes bigger – as to be elaborated later. A chain restaurant network is an example. As the network becomes larger, the nodes begin to compete against each other for customers and the return diminishes.\nBut certain networks, like the services V provides, enjoy this magic trait – the network becomes more profitable as it becomes bigger. There is nothing new about the concept. It was true of railways, telephones, and fax machines. All these examples share these common traits: A) the larger the network becomes, the more valuable it becomes (one segment of a railway linking city A and B is far more valuable when this segment also links to other railways linking other cities); and B) the larger the network becomes, the higher the switching cost (if everyone uses a fax machine and you do not want to use one, good luck to you).\nAgain, there is nothing new about the concept. But the internet age dramatically amplified the potency of the network effects. Once a lead is established – for whatever the reason – the network effects would just kick in, take over, and compound itself.\nIt is a self-sustaining positive feedback loop: more users in this network will lead to more convenience, better efficiency, lower cost, which will make the network even better and more valuable for its users and clients, which will, in turn, attract more new users and clients to join and make it harder for existing users to leave, which again will lead back to more users and an even larger network. And such feedback will be reflected in a very high level of return on capital employed (“ROCE”) as to be seen later.\nUnfortunately, like all good things eventually run to an end, so do the benefits of the above network effects. At some point, gravity always catches up, and return begins to diminish. In the railway example, if enough railways have already been built to link all cities with high population density, building the next segment would suffer a diminished return now. In the fax machine example, if every office already has one, adding a second one to each office would also suffer a diminished return.\nTherefore, as investors, we do not only need to examine the ROCE, but also equally importantly, to examine the marginal return. Because the marginal return tells us if the business is still in a scalable stage, or if the business has already passed the tipping point of scalability and begins to see a diminishing return. In another word, MROCE let us see if the gravity of diminishing return has caught up yet or not.\nAnd the remainder of this article will examine both aspects next.\nReturn on capital employed (“ROCE”)\nROCE stands for the return on capital employed. Note that ROCE is different from the return on equity (and more fundamental and important in my view). ROCE considers the return of capital ACTUALLY employed, and therefore provides insight into how effectively the business uses its capital to earn a profit. Readers interested in the details of the ROCE analysis can find them in my earlier article. Here I will just summarize the results in the chart below. In these results, I considered the following items capital actually employed A) Working capital (including payables, receivables, inventory), B) Gross Property, Plant, and Equipment, C) Research and development expenses are capitalized, and D) the intangible book value, mainly consisting of intellectual property and patents for such a business.\nAs seen, it was able to maintain an astronomical level of ROCE over the past decade: on average ~103%. To put things in perspective, the next chart compares V’s ROCE against the FAAMG stocks – a group of businesses that exploits the network effects to the extreme. As can be seen, V earns a very competitive ROCE among them – only second to Apple (AAPL). Every $1 of earning reinvested will fuel more than $1 of additional future earnings growth on average.\nSource: author and Seeking Alpha.\nSource: author and Seeking Alpha.\nIntroduction to marginal return on capital employed (“MROCE”)\nIn addition to ROCE, an equally important concept is the marginal return on capital employed (“MROCE”). To me, ROCE and MROCE are the most two important metrics for analyzing a business. They reveal the most fundamental two aspects of the same central issue of profitability. ROCE tells us how profitable the business has been or is SO FAR. And MROCE sheds insights into which direction the profitability is likely to go.\nA bit of background and introduction for readers who are new to the concept. For readers familiar with the concept already, definitely skip this section. From what I’ve learned, the legendary economist John Maynard Keynes first explicitly expressed this concept, although people before him have observed and thought about it for some time already. What the concept tries to capture is a basic law in economic activities: the law of diminishing returns. Warren Buffett likes to say that interest rate acts like gravity on all economic activities. Well, diminishing returns act like gravity on all economic activities too, if not more so, as long as human nature does not change in any fundamental way.\nThe next chart illustrates the concept. As long as shareholders are seeking profit, a public business will first invest its money at projects with the highest possible rate of return (i.e., picking the lowest hanging apples first or getting the most bang for the buck first). Therefore, the first batch of available resources is invested at a high rate of return – the highest the business can possibly identify. The second batch of money will have to be invested at a somewhat lower rate of return since the best ideas have been taken by the first batch of resources already, and so on. The last batch of money invested may earn a rate of return that is only above the cost of capital. And finally, the end result is a declining MROCE curve as shown.\nSource: author\nThe ROCE we normally talk about and companies report refers to the average of this curve – averaging the return on all batches of money invested. Obviously, the average is very useful information by itself. It tells us how efficiently the business has been converting resources into profit so far – but its limitation is that it only tells us the efficiency of the resources that have already been invested SO FAR. What is of equal importance to investors is the MROCE, which tells us how much incremental profit the business WILL generate when the next batch of resources are invested.\nFor investors, a dream business to invest in would be a business that enjoys a flat MROCE curve as shown by the solid blue line. This would be a business that is perfectly scalable. A business that earns a consistent and stable profit for every batch of resources invested. However, such a business is really only a dream business. I mentioned earlier that diminishing returns act like gravity on all economic activities - because they really do. There has been no business (at least not so far in human history) that can keep growing while at the same time maintaining a constant return on capital. At some point, gravity always catches up and the return begins to decline (as shown by the dashed blue line).\nV’s MROCE\nSo for investors, the next best deal is to invest in a business that A) has a high and stable ROCE, and B) that is still in the scalable stage (the gravity of diminishing return has not caught up yet). And as shown in the next chart, V seems to be such a business at such a stage.\nThis chart shows the MROCE and ROCE for V over recent years. The ROCE data are the same as those shown in the previous section. The MROCE data are estimated by the following steps. First, the capital employed was calculated for each year. Second, the earnings were calculated each year. Third, then the incremental of capital employed year over year was calculated. Similarly, the incremental earnings year over year were also calculated. And finally, the ratio between the incremental earnings and incremental capital employed was calculated to approximate the MROCE. During years when there were large fluctuations in either the incremental earnings or the capital employed, a multi-year running average was taken to smooth the fluctuations.\nBefore we began to interpret the results, let me first clarify the difficulties of analyzing marginal return on capital and the limitations of the approach I used here. Firstly, it is just mathematically much harder to estimate the rate of change (e.g., which is what MROCE is essentially is) than the average change (which is what ROCE is essentially is). Estimating the latter involves dividing two large numbers and the uncertainties are small. Estimating the former requires dividing two small numbers and the uncertainties in the financial data can be magnified. Secondly, some capital investments in a business can take multiple years (more than 3 years) to bear fruit (or to fail). Therefore, isolating and tracking the marginal return produced by investments made in a given year is inherently difficult. Although most of the projects should begin to show results (either good or bad) in 3 years and this approach should be able to capture the dominating trend of marginal return.\nWith the above understanding, let’s look at the results closely. First, note that the extraordinarily high MROCE during the early part of the decade again provides a strong illustration of the network effects and the secular trend that support the business at a fundamental level. The business model is just too good.\nThe results in the chart also show that at this stage, V has been actually able to maintain an MROCE that actually is higher than the average ROCE in recent years. As seen, the ROCE has been on average 103% in recent years, and the MROCE has been on average 157%. It was significantly lower than the 350+% level in the earlier part of the decade – gravity always tries to catch up. But it is still higher than the ROCE by a good margin. And the gap is more than 50%, too large to be caused by the uncertainties in the financial data and rounding off errors. So this result suggests that V has not entered a stage of diminishing return yet - gravity has not caught up yet. And if the current MROCE continues, V’s ROCE will maintain its current high level or even further expand.\nSource: author and Seeking Alpha data.\nValuation\nAfter the above discussion of its profitability sustainability, let’s look at the valuation. At its current price levels, V’s PE is about 44x and FW PE is about 39.6x. The valuation is both high in absolute terms and also high in relative terms. For example, when compared to the FAAMG pack, V’s current valuation is only lower than Amazon (AMZN) in terms of the PE multiple and higher than all the others.\nIt is not that meaningful to discuss valuation in isolation and without adjusting for the quality of the business. The next chart therefore also compares V valuation adjusted for its ROCE with its peers. If you are familiar with Buffett’s holdings, you would recognize that the stocks in this chart represent some of the large BRK holdings.\nI am not sure what the picture will look like as we add more data points on this chart (I do plan to organize my notes on other BRK major holdings and add more data points onto this plot). But with the few data points I have now, I cannot help drawing/seeing the green line - what I call a Buffett value line. It is a line linking AbbVie Inc (ABBV) and AAPL - a good business at a good price and a high-quality business at a high price. So from a value investor point of view, it only makes sense to make investments along this line or below it. Because investment along this line or below represents a trade-off between quality and price that is equivalent or better than ABBV or AAPL. It makes no sense to invest above this line, as anything above this line represents an inferior trade-off between quality and price - we'd be better off just investing in ABBV and AAPL.\nAs you can see, V is currently way above the green line, showing a valuation that is only expensive by itself, but also when adjusted for its ROCE – even if it is superb ROCE.\nSource: author and Seeking Alpha data.\nCatalysts and risks\nThe long-term catalyst is the trend of digital transactions as mentioned at the beginning of the article. In my view, this trend is unstoppable. The expansive deployment of e-commerce platforms will further accelerate this transition.\nThe most significant catalyst and also a risk at the same time in the near term is the direction and the pace of the economic recovery. If economic activities and especially travel activities resume to their normal level, V will benefit significantly, as commented by the CFO:\n\n \"We have seen immediate impacts since popular travel destinations opened their borders. Greece opened borders in April, and inbound card-present spend rose nearly 30 points by the end of June relative to 2019 levels. France opened on June 9, and inbound card-present volumes rose nearly 20 points by the end of June relative to 2019 ... Since April, card-present cross-border spend in Mexico from the U.S. rose nearly 50 points to over 170% of 2019 levels.\"\n\n\nVasant Prabhu, Visa CFO (Q3 FY21 earnings call)\n\nIn terms of risks, I see a valuation risk here as aforementioned. In terms of business fundamentals, I really do not see any risks in the near- or even long-term. The economic recovery from the pandemic mentioned above is not really a fundamental risk in my view. Even if it develops in the wrong direction and/or at a pace slower than expected, it is at most a temporary hiccup for V. The business model is too robust and too scalable. In the really long term, we can only speculate. The disruption from Fintechs and Crypto currency must be a potential risk in the long term. I suggest readers interested in these discussions to read the analysis published by Natalie Koo.\nConclusion and final thought\nThis article analyzes Visa Inc (V), with a focus on its profit sustainability and scalability. This analysis examines the most two important aspects of profit Sustainability: return on capital employed (“ROCE”) and marginal return on capital employed (“MROCE”). To me, ROCE and MROCE are the most two important metrics for analyzing a business. They reveal the two most fundamental aspects of the same central issue of profit Sustainability. ROCE tells us how profitable the business has been or is SO FAR. And MROCE sheds insights into which direction the profitability is likely to go.\nThe results show that:\n\nV not only earns a consistently high ROCE in the past but is still perfectly scalable at its current stage, indicating sustainable profit ahead.\nThe ROCE has been on average about 103% and compares very favorably against overachievers which are exemplary scalable stocks.\nAnd the MROCE has been on average 157% in recent years. So this result suggests that V has not reached the stage of diminishing return yet - gravity has not caught up yet. It is truly impressive for a business at such a staggering scale (which processes $15 trillion of transaction volume last year) to still maintain perfect scalability.\nLastly, this article also discusses its valuation, especially valuation adjusted for ROCE compared to other stocks that enjoy superb scalability using what I call the Buffett value line. V is currently way above the value line, showing its valuation to be only expensive by itself, but also when adjusted for its ROCE – even if it is superb ROCE.\n\nAs such, my final verdict is that it is still a perfectly scalable business, but it is more than perfectly priced. Investment at this point will take some time, patience, and commitment for the growth to catch up with the valuation. It is only for long-term committed investors (with at least 5+ years of time horizon) who could hold to it and sit out any potential near-term valuation volatilities.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":665,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":323901808,"gmtCreate":1615295216704,"gmtModify":1703486896104,"author":{"id":"3555822052484377","authorId":"3555822052484377","name":"Tongs","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b0a38d6dcec089553bed2e9e999c283a","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"So real, it hurts&nbsp;[流泪]&nbsp;","listText":"So real, it hurts&nbsp;[流泪]&nbsp;","text":"So real, it hurts [流泪]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/323901808","repostId":"1142460432","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1142460432","pubTimestamp":1615283008,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1142460432?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-03-09 17:43","market":"us","language":"en","title":"The Stocks Rotation Ride Is Real, and Violent","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1142460432","media":"Bloomberg","summary":"There’s no room left for doubt that a major shift is under way.\nRotation, Rotation, Rotation\nLast No","content":"<p>There’s no room left for doubt that a major shift is under way.</p>\n<p><b>Rotation, Rotation, Rotation</b></p>\n<p>Last November, when excellent vaccine test results sparked a surge in stocks that had suffered most from the pandemic lockdown, it was still possible to doubt whether there had been a true market rotation. The initial&nbsp;drama&nbsp;was followed by a month or two of dithering. That doubt is over. The market is unquestionably going through a major shift. The question is how long it will continue.</p>\n<p>Within the stock market, the rotation is most pronounced in the move from “momentum” stocks, which had previously been winning, to “value” companies, which look cheap compared to their fundamentals. That change, by Bloomberg’s measure, is about as violent as any in history:</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6386f1bd17b4e321382ee6a26f1e732d\" tg-width=\"1200\" tg-height=\"675\"></p>\n<p>The underlying driver for stocks is the bond market. The rotation toward&nbsp;higher yields in bonds has slowed a little but not stopped, and the benchmark 10-year Treasury yield topped 1.6% again in Monday trading. Its trend now appears to be plainly upward:</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d0ed893e22bdf9d9d36694e66417d87a\" tg-width=\"1200\" tg-height=\"675\"></p>\n<p>Underlying the move in bonds is a shift in views about the economy, driven in part by the news from Washington that Democrats should be able to push through a $1.9 trillion stimulus package. Meanwhile, there is also excitement over the fight against the pandemic, with the likely reopening date for the economy steadily moving forward. For one dramatic demonstration of this, watch the relative performance since the beginning of last year of Netflix Inc., a pure play on streaming at home, and Walt Disney Co., a bet on streaming content that also comes with a large theme park business. Disney still lags Netflix since the beginning of last year, but has outperformed it by almost 90% since its nadir last July:</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/403e2b3fa7d95012d5e6269246099190\" tg-width=\"1200\" tg-height=\"675\"></p>\n<p>So, a rotation is under way. That raises many questions —&nbsp;far too many to answer here. But here are some of the more important issues.</p>\n<p><b>What’s Bubbling?</b></p>\n<p>The question of whether we are in a stock market bubble persists. A lot depends on how to account for the undoubted prop that the market receives from low bond yields. But to an extent, the point of a bubble is that it goes beyond a point where valuation matters; it is already overvalued and the question is how overvalued it can become. That is a question of mass psychology, which can be revealed in stock charts. This is one of those times when looking at patterns in prices can have some relevance.</p>\n<p>The greatest fear is that we are staging a repeat of the great dot-com bubble that burst almost exactly 21 years ago. Rather than look at the highly speculative dot-coms that went to market without profits or even revenues to their names, this chart compares the Nasdaq-100, a tech-dominated group of large companies, against the equal-weighted version of the S&amp;P 500, a measure of the performance of the “average stock.” As can be seen, this was a bubble for the ages:</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6f5d824bd0d01b4953bbda519d9a91ea\" tg-width=\"1200\" tg-height=\"675\"></p>\n<p>Over the year to the Nasdaq’s peak, the average stock went nowhere. And barely nine months after that, the index had given up all of its gains over the previous 12 months, and was lagging the average stock. Now, this is the same exercise repeated for the year running up to the Nasdaq-100’s high last month:</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/555180102d590a989cf61e0477a0ae7a\" tg-width=\"1200\" tg-height=\"675\"></p>\n<p>Tech stocks became badly overpriced and are now having a correction that probably has further to go. Meanwhile the equal-weighted S&amp;P 500 is barely below its all-time high. At this level the Nasdaq-100, in behavioral terms,&nbsp;isn’t a repeat of 1999-2000.</p>\n<p>However, if we look at the most exciting stock of the moment, the Ark Innovation exchange-traded fund managed by Cathie Wood, we do see a pattern that’s distinctly reminiscent of the internet craze:</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/687b2e418468de72b7c3c5fa4c6209ec\" tg-width=\"1200\" tg-height=\"675\"></p>\n<p>The stocks held by Ark are potential “disrupters” that are for the most part smaller than members of the Nasdaq-100 (Tesla Inc. is a big exception). Wood herself gave&nbsp;a great interview with Bloomberg TV&nbsp;in which she conceded that the market was “broadening,” which is a positive sign of recovering optimism. She also contended that the stocks faring best — such as banks, energy companies&nbsp;and auto manufacturers — are exactly the kind of businesses that stand to be disrupted in the long run by Ark’s investments. These are all valid arguments; buying Amazon.com Inc. in late 1999 proved to be a superlative 20-year investment, even if you had to wait a decade before you broke even. But at this point, the most exciting speculative stocks do look as though they’ve been&nbsp;partying like it’s 1999.</p>\n<p><b>Self-Stabilizers</b></p>\n<p>One point about market rotations is that they come with in-built stabilizers. For example, optimism on growth and fear of inflation leads to higher interest rates, which in turn dampen growth and inflation. This becomes a key question now. Estimates for U.S. growth in 2021 have risen sharply thanks to the success of its vaccine program. Forecasts for many other countries are actively declining due to vaccine disappointment. This means that yields are rising everywhere —&nbsp;but far faster in the U.S. than the rest of the developed world. The following charts from Credit Suisse Group AG demonstrate this nicely:</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/abc0dc20ce12b638eb3d0ffcc8c40b0e\" tg-width=\"681\" tg-height=\"852\"></p>\n<p>How does this change things? If lots of foreigners pour into Treasuries to take advantage of the higher yields, then the yields won’t rise so much. This was a point that David Tepper, the hedge fund investor who runs Appaloosa Management, made early Monday, to much excitement. That effect hasn’t happened yet. Alternatively, the higher yields in the U.S. succeed in attracting flows that push the dollar up. A higher dollar tends to damp&nbsp;inflation. Over the last four years, there is a distinct tendency for the currency to follow the path set by the gap between U.S. and German bond yields, with a lag of a couple of months. And that is already happening:</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ad3285dc614eb4b0ededa421f50ffd7d\" tg-width=\"1200\" tg-height=\"675\"></p>\n<p>The dollar’s rebound has taken many by surprise, and it could change much of the presiding narrative of a big reflation this year. It could also derail&nbsp;investment in emerging markets. Higher Treasury yields have had their customary effect of messing up emerging market carry trades —&nbsp;the practice of borrowing in currencies with low rates and parking in countries with higher rates, pocketing the carry. A promising rebound for emerging carry trades looks as though it has been snuffed out:</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a7d87cf6d8b588ec38ec6fa81561f82b\" tg-width=\"1200\" tg-height=\"675\"></p>\n<p><b>Self-Fulfilling Prophecies</b></p>\n<p>Markets don’t just have their own stabilizers. They also have the ability to make a prophecy and know that it will come true. This could be about to happen in the great rotation between value and momentum.</p>\n<p>One popular trade among quants is to combine value and momentum. An objection is that the two will tend to cancel each other out, and much of the time they do. But every so often, there is a moment when value stocks have momentum, and the strategy goes into overdrive. Such a moment appears to be at hand.</p>\n<p>The following chart&nbsp;is from Mike Wilson, head U.S. equity strategist at Morgan Stanley, who points out that with the anniversary of the great selloff last March, the stocks that appear to have momentum over the last 12 months will change. Rather than being crowded with tech stocks, quants looking to buy “momentum stocks” will instead start to add banks and energy groups. So a rotation that started with a push from economic fundamentals could receive a second wind from technical factors:</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e1e4658b732782ed964dda7f66eed987\" tg-width=\"1022\" tg-height=\"654\"></p>\n<p>This isn’t&nbsp;so much a market stabilizer as a market destabilizer, driven by the weight of money wielded by institutions. This powerful effect could become more disruptive.</p>\n<p><b>The Power of Bonds</b></p>\n<p>So exactly how much influence do bonds have over stocks? I’d like to mention two interesting angles on this profound question. First, Deltec Bank &amp; Trust Ltd. makes the interesting point that when yields are at very low levels, bond volatility almost by definition gets that much greater when there is any rise. This is the way Hugo Rogers of Deltec puts it:</p>\n<blockquote>\n <i>In a way it is the certainty of ‘low forever’ rates and the unlimited buying potential that is most stimulative. This is reflected in bond volatility.&nbsp;But now that the post COVID recovery has begun, now inflation expectations are justifiably rising, and with fears of another high-teens budget deficit, so is bond market volatility.</i>\n</blockquote>\n<blockquote>\n <i>This is a foundation of markets, a key component of financial conditions. As long rates rise, as bond market volatility increases, funding tightens.&nbsp;We have explained some of the link to other markets, but the market beyond bonds themselves, that is most effected are equities priced using zero cost of capital (unicorns).It is no surprise to see companies making no cash flow, priced off blue sky thinking, falling fastest in this market. We expect this to continue.</i>\n</blockquote>\n<p>And indeed, if we look at the performance of Ark Innovation, compared with the MOVE index of bond volatility on an inverted scale, there is a family resemblance. While bond volatility appears under control, speculative tech companies do very well; any rise holds them back:</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4ffe8c874f6c050157a432719967df81\" tg-width=\"1200\" tg-height=\"675\"></p>\n<p>If bond volatility persists, we can expect the difficulties for last year’s leaders to continue too.</p>\n<p>What of the broader question of whether lower bond yields justify higher valuations on stocks? It is time for an entry from Robert Shiller of Yale University, who late last year introduced the concept of the “Excess CAPE Yield” (his measure of the long-term earnings yield on stocks minus the 10-year bond yield). The higher this gauge, the more we can expect stocks to beat bonds in future. Thanks to low bond yields, the ECY is positive at present, suggesting that stocks should indeed beat bonds.</p>\n<p>At the peak of the boom in 2000, the ECY was negative, meaning that earnings yields had dropped below bond yields, so the indicator correctly signaled that stocks were due for a period of terrible relative performance. The ECY is telling us that the current stock market isn’t as wildly overvalued as in 2000. But that is faint praise. Is it telling us that this is a great time to buy stocks?</p>\n<p>Many interpreted it that way. But&nbsp;Shiller wrote a column for the New York Times&nbsp;over the weekend that corrects that impression.</p>\n<blockquote>\n <i>Right now the E.C.Y. is 3.15 percent. That is roughly its average for the last 20 years. It is relatively high, and it predicts that stocks will outperform bonds. Current interest rates for bonds make that a very low hurdle.</i>\n</blockquote>\n<blockquote>\n <i>Consider that when you factor in inflation, the 10-year Treasury note, yielding around 1.4 percent, will most likely pay back less in real dollars at maturity than your original investment. Stocks may not have the usual high long-run expectations (the CAPE tells us that), but at least there is a positive long-run expected return.</i>\n</blockquote>\n<blockquote>\n <i>Putting all of this together, I’d say the stock market is high but still in some ways more attractive than the bond market.</i>\n</blockquote>\n<p>Shiller isn’t telling us to fill our boots with stocks, so much as to be very careful about bonds. It’s quite possible for both to fall together. If you find this disappointing, he understands:</p>\n<blockquote>\n <i>The markets may well be dangerously high right now, and I wish my measurements provided clearer guidance, but they don’t. We can’t accurately forecast the moment-by-moment movements of birds, and the stock and bond markets are, unfortunately, much the same.</i>\n</blockquote>\n<p>The bottom line is to continue to be careful out there. We will have to endure plenty more rotation before this is over.</p>\n<p><b>Survival Tips</b></p>\n<p>It has been hard to write this after a day spent largely giving my opinion on the Harry and Meghan interview. Sometimes being a British expat can be a problem. Anyway, on a royal theme, here is a remarkable clip of Prince playing George Harrison's&nbsp;<i>While My Guitar Gently Weeps</i>, in a band that includes Tom Petty and George's own son - who seems thoroughly to enjoy Prince's guitar solo, which comes towards the end of the clip. On a slightly more tenuous royal theme you could sit down and listen to&nbsp;<i>Their Satanic Majesties Request</i>&nbsp;by the Rolling Stones, or&nbsp;<i>Killer Queen</i>&nbsp;by Queen.</p>\n<p>If Harry and Meghan's travails have whetted the appetite for even more Windsors drama then my favorite actress in the part of Elizabeth II to date is Helen Mirren in&nbsp;<i>The Queen</i>. She also did a turn as&nbsp;<i>Elizabeth I</i>&nbsp;a year earlier —&nbsp;a rather more dynamic queen who had real and not figurative blood on her hands. Compare and contrast her with another dame, Judi Dench, in the same role in&nbsp;<i>Shakespeare In Love</i>.</p>","source":"lsy1584095487587","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>The Stocks Rotation Ride Is Real, and Violent</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nThe Stocks Rotation Ride Is Real, and Violent\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-03-09 17:43 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2021-03-09/the-stocks-rotation-ride-is-real-and-violent?srnd=opinion><strong>Bloomberg</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>There’s no room left for doubt that a major shift is under way.\nRotation, Rotation, Rotation\nLast November, when excellent vaccine test results sparked a surge in stocks that had suffered most from ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2021-03-09/the-stocks-rotation-ride-is-real-and-violent?srnd=opinion\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","DIS":"迪士尼",".DJI":"道琼斯","TSLA":"特斯拉","NFLX":"奈飞","AMZN":"亚马逊","ARKK":"ARK Innovation ETF",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","NDX":"纳斯达克100指数"},"source_url":"https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2021-03-09/the-stocks-rotation-ride-is-real-and-violent?srnd=opinion","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1142460432","content_text":"There’s no room left for doubt that a major shift is under way.\nRotation, Rotation, Rotation\nLast November, when excellent vaccine test results sparked a surge in stocks that had suffered most from the pandemic lockdown, it was still possible to doubt whether there had been a true market rotation. The initial drama was followed by a month or two of dithering. That doubt is over. The market is unquestionably going through a major shift. The question is how long it will continue.\nWithin the stock market, the rotation is most pronounced in the move from “momentum” stocks, which had previously been winning, to “value” companies, which look cheap compared to their fundamentals. That change, by Bloomberg’s measure, is about as violent as any in history:\n\nThe underlying driver for stocks is the bond market. The rotation toward higher yields in bonds has slowed a little but not stopped, and the benchmark 10-year Treasury yield topped 1.6% again in Monday trading. Its trend now appears to be plainly upward:\n\nUnderlying the move in bonds is a shift in views about the economy, driven in part by the news from Washington that Democrats should be able to push through a $1.9 trillion stimulus package. Meanwhile, there is also excitement over the fight against the pandemic, with the likely reopening date for the economy steadily moving forward. For one dramatic demonstration of this, watch the relative performance since the beginning of last year of Netflix Inc., a pure play on streaming at home, and Walt Disney Co., a bet on streaming content that also comes with a large theme park business. Disney still lags Netflix since the beginning of last year, but has outperformed it by almost 90% since its nadir last July:\n\nSo, a rotation is under way. That raises many questions — far too many to answer here. But here are some of the more important issues.\nWhat’s Bubbling?\nThe question of whether we are in a stock market bubble persists. A lot depends on how to account for the undoubted prop that the market receives from low bond yields. But to an extent, the point of a bubble is that it goes beyond a point where valuation matters; it is already overvalued and the question is how overvalued it can become. That is a question of mass psychology, which can be revealed in stock charts. This is one of those times when looking at patterns in prices can have some relevance.\nThe greatest fear is that we are staging a repeat of the great dot-com bubble that burst almost exactly 21 years ago. Rather than look at the highly speculative dot-coms that went to market without profits or even revenues to their names, this chart compares the Nasdaq-100, a tech-dominated group of large companies, against the equal-weighted version of the S&P 500, a measure of the performance of the “average stock.” As can be seen, this was a bubble for the ages:\n\nOver the year to the Nasdaq’s peak, the average stock went nowhere. And barely nine months after that, the index had given up all of its gains over the previous 12 months, and was lagging the average stock. Now, this is the same exercise repeated for the year running up to the Nasdaq-100’s high last month:\n\nTech stocks became badly overpriced and are now having a correction that probably has further to go. Meanwhile the equal-weighted S&P 500 is barely below its all-time high. At this level the Nasdaq-100, in behavioral terms, isn’t a repeat of 1999-2000.\nHowever, if we look at the most exciting stock of the moment, the Ark Innovation exchange-traded fund managed by Cathie Wood, we do see a pattern that’s distinctly reminiscent of the internet craze:\n\nThe stocks held by Ark are potential “disrupters” that are for the most part smaller than members of the Nasdaq-100 (Tesla Inc. is a big exception). Wood herself gave a great interview with Bloomberg TV in which she conceded that the market was “broadening,” which is a positive sign of recovering optimism. She also contended that the stocks faring best — such as banks, energy companies and auto manufacturers — are exactly the kind of businesses that stand to be disrupted in the long run by Ark’s investments. These are all valid arguments; buying Amazon.com Inc. in late 1999 proved to be a superlative 20-year investment, even if you had to wait a decade before you broke even. But at this point, the most exciting speculative stocks do look as though they’ve been partying like it’s 1999.\nSelf-Stabilizers\nOne point about market rotations is that they come with in-built stabilizers. For example, optimism on growth and fear of inflation leads to higher interest rates, which in turn dampen growth and inflation. This becomes a key question now. Estimates for U.S. growth in 2021 have risen sharply thanks to the success of its vaccine program. Forecasts for many other countries are actively declining due to vaccine disappointment. This means that yields are rising everywhere — but far faster in the U.S. than the rest of the developed world. The following charts from Credit Suisse Group AG demonstrate this nicely:\n\nHow does this change things? If lots of foreigners pour into Treasuries to take advantage of the higher yields, then the yields won’t rise so much. This was a point that David Tepper, the hedge fund investor who runs Appaloosa Management, made early Monday, to much excitement. That effect hasn’t happened yet. Alternatively, the higher yields in the U.S. succeed in attracting flows that push the dollar up. A higher dollar tends to damp inflation. Over the last four years, there is a distinct tendency for the currency to follow the path set by the gap between U.S. and German bond yields, with a lag of a couple of months. And that is already happening:\n\nThe dollar’s rebound has taken many by surprise, and it could change much of the presiding narrative of a big reflation this year. It could also derail investment in emerging markets. Higher Treasury yields have had their customary effect of messing up emerging market carry trades — the practice of borrowing in currencies with low rates and parking in countries with higher rates, pocketing the carry. A promising rebound for emerging carry trades looks as though it has been snuffed out:\n\nSelf-Fulfilling Prophecies\nMarkets don’t just have their own stabilizers. They also have the ability to make a prophecy and know that it will come true. This could be about to happen in the great rotation between value and momentum.\nOne popular trade among quants is to combine value and momentum. An objection is that the two will tend to cancel each other out, and much of the time they do. But every so often, there is a moment when value stocks have momentum, and the strategy goes into overdrive. Such a moment appears to be at hand.\nThe following chart is from Mike Wilson, head U.S. equity strategist at Morgan Stanley, who points out that with the anniversary of the great selloff last March, the stocks that appear to have momentum over the last 12 months will change. Rather than being crowded with tech stocks, quants looking to buy “momentum stocks” will instead start to add banks and energy groups. So a rotation that started with a push from economic fundamentals could receive a second wind from technical factors:\n\nThis isn’t so much a market stabilizer as a market destabilizer, driven by the weight of money wielded by institutions. This powerful effect could become more disruptive.\nThe Power of Bonds\nSo exactly how much influence do bonds have over stocks? I’d like to mention two interesting angles on this profound question. First, Deltec Bank & Trust Ltd. makes the interesting point that when yields are at very low levels, bond volatility almost by definition gets that much greater when there is any rise. This is the way Hugo Rogers of Deltec puts it:\n\nIn a way it is the certainty of ‘low forever’ rates and the unlimited buying potential that is most stimulative. This is reflected in bond volatility. But now that the post COVID recovery has begun, now inflation expectations are justifiably rising, and with fears of another high-teens budget deficit, so is bond market volatility.\n\n\nThis is a foundation of markets, a key component of financial conditions. As long rates rise, as bond market volatility increases, funding tightens. We have explained some of the link to other markets, but the market beyond bonds themselves, that is most effected are equities priced using zero cost of capital (unicorns).It is no surprise to see companies making no cash flow, priced off blue sky thinking, falling fastest in this market. We expect this to continue.\n\nAnd indeed, if we look at the performance of Ark Innovation, compared with the MOVE index of bond volatility on an inverted scale, there is a family resemblance. While bond volatility appears under control, speculative tech companies do very well; any rise holds them back:\n\nIf bond volatility persists, we can expect the difficulties for last year’s leaders to continue too.\nWhat of the broader question of whether lower bond yields justify higher valuations on stocks? It is time for an entry from Robert Shiller of Yale University, who late last year introduced the concept of the “Excess CAPE Yield” (his measure of the long-term earnings yield on stocks minus the 10-year bond yield). The higher this gauge, the more we can expect stocks to beat bonds in future. Thanks to low bond yields, the ECY is positive at present, suggesting that stocks should indeed beat bonds.\nAt the peak of the boom in 2000, the ECY was negative, meaning that earnings yields had dropped below bond yields, so the indicator correctly signaled that stocks were due for a period of terrible relative performance. The ECY is telling us that the current stock market isn’t as wildly overvalued as in 2000. But that is faint praise. Is it telling us that this is a great time to buy stocks?\nMany interpreted it that way. But Shiller wrote a column for the New York Times over the weekend that corrects that impression.\n\nRight now the E.C.Y. is 3.15 percent. That is roughly its average for the last 20 years. It is relatively high, and it predicts that stocks will outperform bonds. Current interest rates for bonds make that a very low hurdle.\n\n\nConsider that when you factor in inflation, the 10-year Treasury note, yielding around 1.4 percent, will most likely pay back less in real dollars at maturity than your original investment. Stocks may not have the usual high long-run expectations (the CAPE tells us that), but at least there is a positive long-run expected return.\n\n\nPutting all of this together, I’d say the stock market is high but still in some ways more attractive than the bond market.\n\nShiller isn’t telling us to fill our boots with stocks, so much as to be very careful about bonds. It’s quite possible for both to fall together. If you find this disappointing, he understands:\n\nThe markets may well be dangerously high right now, and I wish my measurements provided clearer guidance, but they don’t. We can’t accurately forecast the moment-by-moment movements of birds, and the stock and bond markets are, unfortunately, much the same.\n\nThe bottom line is to continue to be careful out there. We will have to endure plenty more rotation before this is over.\nSurvival Tips\nIt has been hard to write this after a day spent largely giving my opinion on the Harry and Meghan interview. Sometimes being a British expat can be a problem. Anyway, on a royal theme, here is a remarkable clip of Prince playing George Harrison's While My Guitar Gently Weeps, in a band that includes Tom Petty and George's own son - who seems thoroughly to enjoy Prince's guitar solo, which comes towards the end of the clip. On a slightly more tenuous royal theme you could sit down and listen to Their Satanic Majesties Request by the Rolling Stones, or Killer Queen by Queen.\nIf Harry and Meghan's travails have whetted the appetite for even more Windsors drama then my favorite actress in the part of Elizabeth II to date is Helen Mirren in The Queen. She also did a turn as Elizabeth I a year earlier — a rather more dynamic queen who had real and not figurative blood on her hands. Compare and contrast her with another dame, Judi Dench, in the same role in Shakespeare In Love.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":365,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":320069852,"gmtCreate":1614991237376,"gmtModify":1703483976197,"author":{"id":"3555822052484377","authorId":"3555822052484377","name":"Tongs","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b0a38d6dcec089553bed2e9e999c283a","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"[得意]&nbsp;","listText":"[得意]&nbsp;","text":"[得意]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/320069852","repostId":"2117639609","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2117639609","pubTimestamp":1614957600,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2117639609?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-03-05 23:20","market":"us","language":"en","title":"What's the Outlook for Intuitive Surgical?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2117639609","media":"Jason Hawthorne","summary":"Competition is heating up, but the company's market leadership remains unchallenged.","content":"<p>After being relegated to science fiction for most of the 20th century, robots have been more visible over the past two decades. Although most real-world applications so far have been industrial, <b>Intuitive</b> <b>Surgical</b> (NASDAQ:ISRG) has been slowly changing that. The company's da Vinci surgical systems only assist trained humans, but they have become synonymous with the term \"robotic surgery.\"</p><p>After so much success, interested investors will want to determine whether the future can be as bright as the past, or if the combination of COVID, regulatory hurdles, and competition will chip away at the dominance this company has established since going public in 2000.</p><p><img src=\"https://g.foolcdn.com/image/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fg.foolcdn.com%2Feditorial%2Fimages%2F615724%2Fgettyimages-1218322943.jpg&amp;w=700&amp;op=resize\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"466\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>The arms of a surgical robot. Image source: Getty Images.</p><p><b>Managing through COVID-19</b></p><p>Early during the pandemic, when hospitals were stopping elective procedures to dedicate resources to patients with COVID-19, the company's sales tumbled. Year-over-year revenue declined 22% in the second quarter of 2020 on 19% fewer procedures.</p><p>Procedures and revenue rebounded slightly in the following quarter, up 7% and down 4.5%, respectively, compared to 2019. The fourth quarter finally saw year-over-year revenue growth of 4%, but management remained cautious.</p><p>Citing a holiday rise in COVID-19 cases, CEO Gary Guthart pointed to a lag in diagnostic cases at hospitals and weak surgery data spilling over from December into January as an indication that the sales of da Vinci systems would take several quarters to normalize. With fewer cases, utilization of existing machines will remain low, delaying the need to add capacity.</p><p>Although this is definitely a concern, it's a temporary <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE\">one</a>. By the end of 2021, orders and installations should be back to normal. System growth has averaged 12% a year over the past decade and 28% for the three years prior to the pandemic. Investors are hoping the return to normal comes sooner rather than later.</p><p><b>A changing regulatory landscape</b></p><p>In recent quarters, management has become much more vocal about a shifting regulatory landscape in the U.S. and Europe, and the requirement for more data than ever before prior to approval. Guthart has said the requirements have stabilized at a level higher than in past years. Although it's a short-term nuisance, this change stands to benefit incumbents like Intuitive over time, because existing systems will sit on the market longer while innovations wait for approval.</p><p>One region where the company has drastically different regulatory experiences is Asia. Guthart has repeatedly cited South Korea as being quick to allow innovative products to market, while China's centrally managed system is more cautious. System sales in the region grew 60% from 2018 to 2019 before falling off during 2020 due to the pandemic. Products launched in China must have a longer history of performance because that country's version of the Food and Drug Administration handles first-generation products very cautiously. Regardless, the company remains excited about its joint venture with Chinese company Fosun Pharma and expects strong, if somewhat turbulent, demand over time.</p><p><b>Defending the moat</b></p><p>One of the risks in China is the launch of companies trying to bring competitive surgical systems to market. This has already happened in South Korea. That country's embrace of innovation is a double-edged sword for Intuitive -- South Korea's first approved surgical robot was made by <b>Meere</b> back in 2017.</p><p>Asia isn't the only region where companies are tired of Intuitive reaping the lion's share of the robotic surgery opportunity. Closer to home, the company faces long-awaited challenges from device makers <b>Medtronic</b> (NYSE:MDT) and <b>Johnson</b> <b>&amp;</b> <b>Johnson</b> (NYSE:JNJ).</p><p>Medtronic made its intentions clear by acquiring spine surgery innovator Mazor Robotics in 2018. It is planning a launch of its Hugo surgical system outside the U.S. to collect data, and expects to submit for an investigational device exemption from the FDA in the next month. That designation would allow the device to be used in a clinical study.</p><p>Johnson &amp; Johnson has a not-so-secret weapon in the battle for the robotic surgery market: the founder of Intuitive Surgical. Dr. Fred Moll, who practically invented the industry when he founded Intuitive in 1995, is chief development officer at the company's devices unit. With his guidance, the healthcare giant plans to commercialize three robotic platforms it gained via acquisition.</p><p>First, the Velys platform is for total knee replacements. This is the type of high-volume, repeatable procedure that is ripe for robotic assistance. But it's a threat to <b>Stryker</b> and <b>Smith</b> <b>&amp;</b> <b>Nephew</b>, not Intuitive.</p><p>Second, the Monarch platform is for a procedure that lets doctors inspect the lungs and air passages. It will eventually be used for lung biopsies, but Intuitive is already staking a claim here with its Ion system. In fact, Intuitive received FDA approval for the procedure in the first quarter of 2019.</p><p>And third, Johnson &amp; Johnson's Ottava general surgery system was introduced in November after much anticipation. The device integrates with an operating table and has six arms, several more than systems currently on the market. The goal is flexibility. If Ottava can perform many types of operations, it will help hospitals avoid buying multiple robots, each with a different purpose. The system is unlikely to come to market before 2024.</p><p><b>Clear skies, with a few clouds on the horizon</b></p><p>Despite some regulatory red tape at home and upstart competition abroad, the path for Intuitive Surgical to continue its decades of growth seems clear. The company is well ahead of the competition with nearly 6,000 surgical systems already installed around the globe, and it will be hard for competitors to replace them. That is especially true as innovation in da Vinci systems, instrumentation, and capability continues to increase both machine utilization and company sales.</p><p>As a shareholder, I'll be watching the regulatory progress of the competing systems. But changes in the approval process have only made it harder for the competition to get a foothold. With no imminent threats for at least the next few years, the shares will stay tucked away in a part of my portfolio as far from the sell button as any I own. For those looking to add the stock to their own portfolios, the recent market volatility may have provided the opportunity they've been waiting for.</p>","source":"fool_stock","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>What's the Outlook for Intuitive Surgical?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWhat's the Outlook for Intuitive Surgical?\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-03-05 23:20 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/03/05/whats-the-outlook-for-intuitive-surgical/><strong>Jason Hawthorne</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>After being relegated to science fiction for most of the 20th century, robots have been more visible over the past two decades. Although most real-world applications so far have been industrial, ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/03/05/whats-the-outlook-for-intuitive-surgical/\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://g.foolcdn.com/image/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fg.foolcdn.com%2Feditorial%2Fimages%2F615724%2Fgettyimages-1218322943.jpg&amp;w=700&amp;op=resize","relate_stocks":{"ISRG":"直觉外科公司"},"source_url":"https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/03/05/whats-the-outlook-for-intuitive-surgical/","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2117639609","content_text":"After being relegated to science fiction for most of the 20th century, robots have been more visible over the past two decades. Although most real-world applications so far have been industrial, Intuitive Surgical (NASDAQ:ISRG) has been slowly changing that. The company's da Vinci surgical systems only assist trained humans, but they have become synonymous with the term \"robotic surgery.\"After so much success, interested investors will want to determine whether the future can be as bright as the past, or if the combination of COVID, regulatory hurdles, and competition will chip away at the dominance this company has established since going public in 2000.The arms of a surgical robot. Image source: Getty Images.Managing through COVID-19Early during the pandemic, when hospitals were stopping elective procedures to dedicate resources to patients with COVID-19, the company's sales tumbled. Year-over-year revenue declined 22% in the second quarter of 2020 on 19% fewer procedures.Procedures and revenue rebounded slightly in the following quarter, up 7% and down 4.5%, respectively, compared to 2019. The fourth quarter finally saw year-over-year revenue growth of 4%, but management remained cautious.Citing a holiday rise in COVID-19 cases, CEO Gary Guthart pointed to a lag in diagnostic cases at hospitals and weak surgery data spilling over from December into January as an indication that the sales of da Vinci systems would take several quarters to normalize. With fewer cases, utilization of existing machines will remain low, delaying the need to add capacity.Although this is definitely a concern, it's a temporary one. By the end of 2021, orders and installations should be back to normal. System growth has averaged 12% a year over the past decade and 28% for the three years prior to the pandemic. Investors are hoping the return to normal comes sooner rather than later.A changing regulatory landscapeIn recent quarters, management has become much more vocal about a shifting regulatory landscape in the U.S. and Europe, and the requirement for more data than ever before prior to approval. Guthart has said the requirements have stabilized at a level higher than in past years. Although it's a short-term nuisance, this change stands to benefit incumbents like Intuitive over time, because existing systems will sit on the market longer while innovations wait for approval.One region where the company has drastically different regulatory experiences is Asia. Guthart has repeatedly cited South Korea as being quick to allow innovative products to market, while China's centrally managed system is more cautious. System sales in the region grew 60% from 2018 to 2019 before falling off during 2020 due to the pandemic. Products launched in China must have a longer history of performance because that country's version of the Food and Drug Administration handles first-generation products very cautiously. Regardless, the company remains excited about its joint venture with Chinese company Fosun Pharma and expects strong, if somewhat turbulent, demand over time.Defending the moatOne of the risks in China is the launch of companies trying to bring competitive surgical systems to market. This has already happened in South Korea. That country's embrace of innovation is a double-edged sword for Intuitive -- South Korea's first approved surgical robot was made by Meere back in 2017.Asia isn't the only region where companies are tired of Intuitive reaping the lion's share of the robotic surgery opportunity. Closer to home, the company faces long-awaited challenges from device makers Medtronic (NYSE:MDT) and Johnson & Johnson (NYSE:JNJ).Medtronic made its intentions clear by acquiring spine surgery innovator Mazor Robotics in 2018. It is planning a launch of its Hugo surgical system outside the U.S. to collect data, and expects to submit for an investigational device exemption from the FDA in the next month. That designation would allow the device to be used in a clinical study.Johnson & Johnson has a not-so-secret weapon in the battle for the robotic surgery market: the founder of Intuitive Surgical. Dr. Fred Moll, who practically invented the industry when he founded Intuitive in 1995, is chief development officer at the company's devices unit. With his guidance, the healthcare giant plans to commercialize three robotic platforms it gained via acquisition.First, the Velys platform is for total knee replacements. This is the type of high-volume, repeatable procedure that is ripe for robotic assistance. But it's a threat to Stryker and Smith & Nephew, not Intuitive.Second, the Monarch platform is for a procedure that lets doctors inspect the lungs and air passages. It will eventually be used for lung biopsies, but Intuitive is already staking a claim here with its Ion system. In fact, Intuitive received FDA approval for the procedure in the first quarter of 2019.And third, Johnson & Johnson's Ottava general surgery system was introduced in November after much anticipation. The device integrates with an operating table and has six arms, several more than systems currently on the market. The goal is flexibility. If Ottava can perform many types of operations, it will help hospitals avoid buying multiple robots, each with a different purpose. The system is unlikely to come to market before 2024.Clear skies, with a few clouds on the horizonDespite some regulatory red tape at home and upstart competition abroad, the path for Intuitive Surgical to continue its decades of growth seems clear. The company is well ahead of the competition with nearly 6,000 surgical systems already installed around the globe, and it will be hard for competitors to replace them. That is especially true as innovation in da Vinci systems, instrumentation, and capability continues to increase both machine utilization and company sales.As a shareholder, I'll be watching the regulatory progress of the competing systems. But changes in the approval process have only made it harder for the competition to get a foothold. With no imminent threats for at least the next few years, the shares will stay tucked away in a part of my portfolio as far from the sell button as any I own. For those looking to add the stock to their own portfolios, the recent market volatility may have provided the opportunity they've been waiting for.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":570,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":380853690,"gmtCreate":1612534736610,"gmtModify":1703763252945,"author":{"id":"3555822052484377","authorId":"3555822052484377","name":"Tongs","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b0a38d6dcec089553bed2e9e999c283a","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"[流泪]&nbsp;","listText":"[流泪]&nbsp;","text":"[流泪]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/380853690","repostId":"1132260998","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1132260998","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Reuters.com brings you the latest news from around the world, covering breaking news in markets, business, politics, entertainment and technology","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Reuters","id":"1036604489","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/443ce19704621c837795676028cec868"},"pubTimestamp":1612519255,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1132260998?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-02-05 18:00","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Performance of funds invested in GameStop in past two weeks","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1132260998","media":"Reuters","summary":"(Reuters) - The Morgan Stanley Institutional Small Co. Inception Portfolio fund was among the top ga","content":"<p>(Reuters) - The Morgan Stanley Institutional Small Co. Inception Portfolio fund was among the top gainers among mutual funds over the past two weeks having exposure to videogame retailer GameStop, data from Refinitiv Lipper showed.</p>\n<p>Crowds of retail punters sent shares in GameStop up by more than 2000% last month, causing some Wall Street hedge funds to lose billions of dollars on their short bets on the stock.</p>\n<p>The Morgan Stanley fund, which had 346,943 shares of GameStop as per the latest filing, gained 23% in the last two weeks, according to the data, which was based on the last two weeks’ price performance.</p>\n<p>The fund’s net assets rose 61% to $746.7 million in January, the data showed.</p>\n<p>Shares of iShares Micro-Cap ETF and Cambria Shareholder Yield ETF also gained about 7% each in the past two weeks.</p>\n<p>Graphic: Mutual fund gainers in the past two weeks</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bdf861b5fe2dd34bcafbc688c67e9075\" tg-width=\"962\" tg-height=\"515\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>Shares of GameStop have fallen more than 83.5% in the first four days of this month as the retail frenzy faded.</p>\n<p>Graphic: Bottom performers in the past two weeks</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ee25f46afa762db3e988a73a7147042d\" tg-width=\"940\" tg-height=\"492\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Performance of funds invested in GameStop in past two weeks</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nPerformance of funds invested in GameStop in past two weeks\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1036604489\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/443ce19704621c837795676028cec868);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Reuters </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2021-02-05 18:00</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>(Reuters) - The Morgan Stanley Institutional Small Co. Inception Portfolio fund was among the top gainers among mutual funds over the past two weeks having exposure to videogame retailer GameStop, data from Refinitiv Lipper showed.</p>\n<p>Crowds of retail punters sent shares in GameStop up by more than 2000% last month, causing some Wall Street hedge funds to lose billions of dollars on their short bets on the stock.</p>\n<p>The Morgan Stanley fund, which had 346,943 shares of GameStop as per the latest filing, gained 23% in the last two weeks, according to the data, which was based on the last two weeks’ price performance.</p>\n<p>The fund’s net assets rose 61% to $746.7 million in January, the data showed.</p>\n<p>Shares of iShares Micro-Cap ETF and Cambria Shareholder Yield ETF also gained about 7% each in the past two weeks.</p>\n<p>Graphic: Mutual fund gainers in the past two weeks</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bdf861b5fe2dd34bcafbc688c67e9075\" tg-width=\"962\" tg-height=\"515\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>Shares of GameStop have fallen more than 83.5% in the first four days of this month as the retail frenzy faded.</p>\n<p>Graphic: Bottom performers in the past two weeks</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ee25f46afa762db3e988a73a7147042d\" tg-width=\"940\" tg-height=\"492\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b72bab52a7d49e9d26088350ab4826c1","relate_stocks":{"GME":"游戏驿站"},"is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1132260998","content_text":"(Reuters) - The Morgan Stanley Institutional Small Co. Inception Portfolio fund was among the top gainers among mutual funds over the past two weeks having exposure to videogame retailer GameStop, data from Refinitiv Lipper showed.\nCrowds of retail punters sent shares in GameStop up by more than 2000% last month, causing some Wall Street hedge funds to lose billions of dollars on their short bets on the stock.\nThe Morgan Stanley fund, which had 346,943 shares of GameStop as per the latest filing, gained 23% in the last two weeks, according to the data, which was based on the last two weeks’ price performance.\nThe fund’s net assets rose 61% to $746.7 million in January, the data showed.\nShares of iShares Micro-Cap ETF and Cambria Shareholder Yield ETF also gained about 7% each in the past two weeks.\nGraphic: Mutual fund gainers in the past two weeks\n\nShares of GameStop have fallen more than 83.5% in the first four days of this month as the retail frenzy faded.\nGraphic: Bottom performers in the past two weeks","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":380,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":317076024,"gmtCreate":1612402471268,"gmtModify":1703761338978,"author":{"id":"3555822052484377","authorId":"3555822052484377","name":"Tongs","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b0a38d6dcec089553bed2e9e999c283a","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"[冷漠]&nbsp;","listText":"[冷漠]&nbsp;","text":"[冷漠]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/317076024","repostId":"1190569667","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1190569667","pubTimestamp":1612349733,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1190569667?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-02-03 18:55","market":"us","language":"en","title":"GameStop climbs 12% in volatile premarket trade as Reddit traders dig in","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1190569667","media":"cnbc","summary":"KEY POINTS\n\nShares of the bricks-and-mortar video game retailer surged 1,625% in January and 400% ju","content":"<div>\n<p>KEY POINTS\n\nShares of the bricks-and-mortar video game retailer surged 1,625% in January and 400% just last week, as traders led by Reddit thread WallStreetBets piled into the stock.\nBut the momentum ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.cnbc.com/2021/02/03/gamestop-climbs-11percent-in-volatile-premarket-trade-as-reddit-traders-dig-in.html\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n","source":"cnbc_highlight","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>GameStop climbs 12% in volatile premarket trade as Reddit traders dig in</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nGameStop climbs 12% in volatile premarket trade as Reddit traders dig in\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-02-03 18:55 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.cnbc.com/2021/02/03/gamestop-climbs-11percent-in-volatile-premarket-trade-as-reddit-traders-dig-in.html><strong>cnbc</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>KEY POINTS\n\nShares of the bricks-and-mortar video game retailer surged 1,625% in January and 400% just last week, as traders led by Reddit thread WallStreetBets piled into the stock.\nBut the momentum ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.cnbc.com/2021/02/03/gamestop-climbs-11percent-in-volatile-premarket-trade-as-reddit-traders-dig-in.html\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a6f99468960c8d559870f82a67747dd7","relate_stocks":{"GME":"游戏驿站"},"source_url":"https://www.cnbc.com/2021/02/03/gamestop-climbs-11percent-in-volatile-premarket-trade-as-reddit-traders-dig-in.html","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/72bb72e1b84c09fca865c6dcb1bbcd16","article_id":"1190569667","content_text":"KEY POINTS\n\nShares of the bricks-and-mortar video game retailer surged 1,625% in January and 400% just last week, as traders led by Reddit thread WallStreetBets piled into the stock.\nBut the momentum had waned earlier this week.\nGamestop stock dropped 60% on Tuesday and it has lost more than 70% of its value since Friday.\n\nGameStopshares gained 12% in premarket trade on Wednesday as the short squeeze fueled by retail traders on Reddit looks to revive itself following a steep decline.\nThe stock had been down by more than 11% earlier on Wednesday morning but swung into the black shortly after 5 a.m. ET.\nShares of the bricks-and-mortar video game retailer surged 1,625% in January and 400% just last week, as traders led by Reddit thread WallStreetBets piled into the stock.\nBut the momentum had waned earlier this week. Gamestop stock dropped 60% on Tuesday and ithas lost more than 70% of its value since Friday.\nAMC Entertainment, another heavily shorted stock that was also targeted by Reddit traders, was up by around 4% in premarket trade.\nRobinhood and other retail trading appscontinue to limit some buying of a collection of stocks pursued by the Reddit thread. Many Wall Street hedge funds began short-covering toward the end of last week after taking significant losses in the squeeze.\nShort selling is a strategy in which investors borrow shares of a stock at a certain price on expectations that the market value will fall below that level when it’s time to pay for the borrowed shares. Buying back borrowed shares to close out a short position, whether for a profit or loss, is known as short-covering.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":529,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":317078951,"gmtCreate":1612402441673,"gmtModify":1703761338027,"author":{"id":"3555822052484377","authorId":"3555822052484377","name":"Tongs","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b0a38d6dcec089553bed2e9e999c283a","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"[财迷]&nbsp;","listText":"[财迷]&nbsp;","text":"[财迷]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/317078951","repostId":"2108796281","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2108796281","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Reuters.com brings you the latest news from around the world, covering breaking news in markets, business, politics, entertainment and technology","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Reuters","id":"1036604489","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/443ce19704621c837795676028cec868"},"pubTimestamp":1612398679,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2108796281?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-02-04 08:31","market":"us","language":"en","title":"GLOBAL MARKETS-Asian stocks ease as caution persists despite calmer markets","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2108796281","media":"Reuters","summary":"By Imani Moise   NEW YORK, Feb 3 (Reuters) - Asian stocks came under pressure on Thursday as a mixed","content":"<html><body><p>By Imani Moise</p><p>   NEW YORK, Feb 3 (Reuters) - Asian stocks came under pressure on Thursday as a mixed Wall Street session gave investors few immediate reasons to increase their risk positions following the recent social media-driven trading chaos.</p><p>   Markets have calmed significantly in the past few days with the Cboe Volatility index    down on Wednesday as wild swings in stock prices of GameStop    and other social media favorites subsided and the retail trading frenzy faded.</p><p>   However, caution continues to dominate sentiment despite positive corporate earnings and firm signs of economic recovery.</p><p>   The Australian S&amp;P/ASX 200 index    lost 0.34% during early trade and Japan's Nikkei 225    fell 0.35%. </p><p>   The lackluster start to Asian trade followed a mixed Wall Street session with the Dow Jones Industrial Average    up 0.12%, the S&amp;P 500    gaining 0.10%, but the Nasdaq Composite    losing 0.02%.</p><p>   Supporting U.S. sentiment were strong earnings by technology giants Alphabet Inc    and Amazon.com Inc.</p><p>   The Google parent company's beat sent shares soaring nearly 7% on Tuesday, but some analysts warned the move was too extreme.</p><p>   \"After lagging its FAANG peers in 2020, shares of Alphabet are making up for lost time in 2021,\" said Paul Hickey of Bespoke Investment Group.</p><p>   \"You'd expect GOOGL to at least consolidate a bit before it's able to build on (year-to-date) gains.\"</p><p>   E-mini futures for the S&amp;P 500    inched 0.26% higher while Hong Kong's Hang Seng index futures     lost 0.16%.</p><p>   MSCI's gauge of stocks across the globe    gained 0.04%.</p><p>   Oil markets continued to advance as inventories hit their lowest level since March. U.S. crude    recently rose 0.45% to $55.94 per barrel and Brent    was at $58.67, up 2.11% on the day.</p><p>   U.S. Treasury yields continued to rise on the hopes of a large stimulus package and the dollar strengthened against a basket of currencies as investors felt more confident in the U.S. recovery trajectory than in Europe's recovery. The benchmark 10-year yield    was last up 3.2 basis points at 1.1391%</p><p>   The 30-year bond    was last up 4.9 basis point at 1.9267%, while the 20-year yield hit 1.735%, its highest level since that bond maturity was relaunched in May 2020.</p><p>   The dollar index    was up 0.07% at 91.145 in afternoon trading in New York after rising to a two-month high of 91.308 during the session.</p><p>   Spot gold    fell 0.2% to $1,833.93 per ounce and U.S. gold futures    settled up 0.1% at $1,835.10.</p><p>    &lt;^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^ Global assets     Global currencies vs. dollar      Emerging markets     MSCI All Country World Index Market Cap    </p><p>   ^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^&gt;</p><p>(Reporting by Imani Moise; Editing by Sam Holmes)</p><p>((Imani.Moise@thomsonreuters.com; +13322191733;))</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>GLOBAL MARKETS-Asian stocks ease as caution persists despite calmer markets</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nGLOBAL MARKETS-Asian stocks ease as caution persists despite calmer markets\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1036604489\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/443ce19704621c837795676028cec868);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Reuters </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2021-02-04 08:31</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><body><p>By Imani Moise</p><p>   NEW YORK, Feb 3 (Reuters) - Asian stocks came under pressure on Thursday as a mixed Wall Street session gave investors few immediate reasons to increase their risk positions following the recent social media-driven trading chaos.</p><p>   Markets have calmed significantly in the past few days with the Cboe Volatility index    down on Wednesday as wild swings in stock prices of GameStop    and other social media favorites subsided and the retail trading frenzy faded.</p><p>   However, caution continues to dominate sentiment despite positive corporate earnings and firm signs of economic recovery.</p><p>   The Australian S&amp;P/ASX 200 index    lost 0.34% during early trade and Japan's Nikkei 225    fell 0.35%. </p><p>   The lackluster start to Asian trade followed a mixed Wall Street session with the Dow Jones Industrial Average    up 0.12%, the S&amp;P 500    gaining 0.10%, but the Nasdaq Composite    losing 0.02%.</p><p>   Supporting U.S. sentiment were strong earnings by technology giants Alphabet Inc    and Amazon.com Inc.</p><p>   The Google parent company's beat sent shares soaring nearly 7% on Tuesday, but some analysts warned the move was too extreme.</p><p>   \"After lagging its FAANG peers in 2020, shares of Alphabet are making up for lost time in 2021,\" said Paul Hickey of Bespoke Investment Group.</p><p>   \"You'd expect GOOGL to at least consolidate a bit before it's able to build on (year-to-date) gains.\"</p><p>   E-mini futures for the S&amp;P 500    inched 0.26% higher while Hong Kong's Hang Seng index futures     lost 0.16%.</p><p>   MSCI's gauge of stocks across the globe    gained 0.04%.</p><p>   Oil markets continued to advance as inventories hit their lowest level since March. U.S. crude    recently rose 0.45% to $55.94 per barrel and Brent    was at $58.67, up 2.11% on the day.</p><p>   U.S. Treasury yields continued to rise on the hopes of a large stimulus package and the dollar strengthened against a basket of currencies as investors felt more confident in the U.S. recovery trajectory than in Europe's recovery. The benchmark 10-year yield    was last up 3.2 basis points at 1.1391%</p><p>   The 30-year bond    was last up 4.9 basis point at 1.9267%, while the 20-year yield hit 1.735%, its highest level since that bond maturity was relaunched in May 2020.</p><p>   The dollar index    was up 0.07% at 91.145 in afternoon trading in New York after rising to a two-month high of 91.308 during the session.</p><p>   Spot gold    fell 0.2% to $1,833.93 per ounce and U.S. gold futures    settled up 0.1% at $1,835.10.</p><p>    &lt;^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^ Global assets     Global currencies vs. dollar      Emerging markets     MSCI All Country World Index Market Cap    </p><p>   ^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^&gt;</p><p>(Reporting by Imani Moise; Editing by Sam Holmes)</p><p>((Imani.Moise@thomsonreuters.com; +13322191733;))</p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"159934":"黄金ETF","518880":"黄金ETF","09086":"华夏纳指-U","EUO":"欧元ETF-ProShares两倍做空","PSQ":"纳指反向ETF","DDG":"ProShares做空石油与天然气ETF","QID":"纳指两倍做空ETF","UDOW":"道指三倍做多ETF-ProShares","DDM":"道指两倍做多ETF","FXY":"日元ETF-CurrencyShares","SDOW":"道指三倍做空ETF-ProShares","FXB":"英镑ETF-CurrencyShares",".DJI":"道琼斯","DOG":"道指反向ETF","USO":"美国原油ETF",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","IAU":"黄金信托ETF(iShares)","GDX":"黄金矿业ETF-VanEck","TQQQ":"纳指三倍做多ETF","FXE":"欧元做多ETF-CurrencyShares","GLD":"SPDR黄金ETF","QLD":"纳指两倍做多ETF","YCS":"日元ETF-ProShares两倍做空","03086":"华夏纳指","QNETCN":"纳斯达克中美互联网老虎指数","DUST":"二倍做空黄金矿业指数ETF-Direxion","QQQ":"纳指100ETF","SCO":"二倍做空彭博原油指数ETF","SQQQ":"纳指三倍做空ETF","UCO":"二倍做多彭博原油ETF","DWT":"三倍做空原油ETN","DJX":"1/100道琼斯","DXD":"道指两倍做空ETF","NUGT":"二倍做多黄金矿业指数ETF-Direxion","DUG":"二倍做空石油与天然气ETF(ProShares)"},"source_url":"http://api.rkd.refinitiv.com/api/News/News.svc/REST/News_1/RetrieveStoryML_1","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2108796281","content_text":"By Imani Moise   NEW YORK, Feb 3 (Reuters) - Asian stocks came under pressure on Thursday as a mixed Wall Street session gave investors few immediate reasons to increase their risk positions following the recent social media-driven trading chaos.   Markets have calmed significantly in the past few days with the Cboe Volatility index    down on Wednesday as wild swings in stock prices of GameStop    and other social media favorites subsided and the retail trading frenzy faded.   However, caution continues to dominate sentiment despite positive corporate earnings and firm signs of economic recovery.   The Australian S&P/ASX 200 index    lost 0.34% during early trade and Japan's Nikkei 225    fell 0.35%.    The lackluster start to Asian trade followed a mixed Wall Street session with the Dow Jones Industrial Average    up 0.12%, the S&P 500    gaining 0.10%, but the Nasdaq Composite    losing 0.02%.   Supporting U.S. sentiment were strong earnings by technology giants Alphabet Inc    and Amazon.com Inc.   The Google parent company's beat sent shares soaring nearly 7% on Tuesday, but some analysts warned the move was too extreme.   \"After lagging its FAANG peers in 2020, shares of Alphabet are making up for lost time in 2021,\" said Paul Hickey of Bespoke Investment Group.   \"You'd expect GOOGL to at least consolidate a bit before it's able to build on (year-to-date) gains.\"   E-mini futures for the S&P 500    inched 0.26% higher while Hong Kong's Hang Seng index futures     lost 0.16%.   MSCI's gauge of stocks across the globe    gained 0.04%.   Oil markets continued to advance as inventories hit their lowest level since March. U.S. crude    recently rose 0.45% to $55.94 per barrel and Brent    was at $58.67, up 2.11% on the day.   U.S. Treasury yields continued to rise on the hopes of a large stimulus package and the dollar strengthened against a basket of currencies as investors felt more confident in the U.S. recovery trajectory than in Europe's recovery. The benchmark 10-year yield    was last up 3.2 basis points at 1.1391%   The 30-year bond    was last up 4.9 basis point at 1.9267%, while the 20-year yield hit 1.735%, its highest level since that bond maturity was relaunched in May 2020.   The dollar index    was up 0.07% at 91.145 in afternoon trading in New York after rising to a two-month high of 91.308 during the session.   Spot gold    fell 0.2% to $1,833.93 per ounce and U.S. gold futures    settled up 0.1% at $1,835.10.    <^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^ Global assets     Global currencies vs. dollar      Emerging markets     MSCI All Country World Index Market Cap       ^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^>(Reporting by Imani Moise; Editing by Sam Holmes)((Imani.Moise@thomsonreuters.com; 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