baiwan的个人主页 - 老虎社区

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baiwan

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IP属地：江苏

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3主题

0勋章

06-27

$美光科技(MU)$ 双杀

06-23

高光时刻大概就是财报前 800 块买了 NV ，领头羊不是盖的，还是要买领头羊，跟风股不行不行另外可惜了 Avago，本来重仓被洗掉了

06-19

Replying to @浪游股海:可以办新加坡卡//@浪游股海:账号注册很久了，香港银行卡拒我好多次，昨天才搞定，绑定成功 [得意]

06-19

哇哇哇 [捂脸] [捂脸] [捂脸]，这个不能提啊不能提

06-13

特斯拉持续向好，稳中求进，突飞猛进✊

木头姐预测：2029年特斯拉股价将达2600美元，市值8.2万亿美元

06-12

$特斯拉(TSLA)$ 又来看空了[捂嘴] ，希望还能蒙对，这次看到点位有点低哈，原因，内讧的团队应该要受到惩罚，个人观点，不喜勿喷，感谢(^🙏^)

06-12

就说我从赚了很多到赔了一半，现在还在努力，你说久不久

06-12

$英伟达(NVDA)$ 拆股已经完成，应该要有一个调整期来应对下一季财报 150 的目标，所以 100 块是不错的点位

06-11

我的计划是，没有计划，边走边看，目前又到了选择的边缘，未来一个月可能有更大的风险在等着

06-07

$英伟达(NVDA)$ 无脑看 1500

06-07

$英伟达(NVDA)$ 天空的尽头都没有达子，达子已到外太空

05-30

$英伟达(NVDA)$ 必须要今天就超过啊，不用怀疑不用害怕，信仰比技术线图靠谱

05-28

拉跨的很

华尔街要推中概版“Mag 7 ”——“Lucky 8”

05-28

A 股这样也少不了你的贡献

意外！英伟达，突遭"空袭"！

05-24

打字的功夫，跑个腿多赚点，不然没钱炒了都😮‍💨

05-23

必须要创新高，唯一缺点就是红海车市，可是小米靠的就是这个起家的，所以拿手

05-23

$英伟达(NVDA)$ 龙头不可辜负，龙头也不会辜负你，加油💪

05-20

$英伟达(NVDA)$ 没有理由，无脑看多，龙头不可以被辜负

05-10

$极氪(ZK)$ 中个 4 股，你以为你是 NV 还是 avago，诶

05-10

难莲花吗？人生就是这么难

去老虎APP查看更多动态

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href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MU\">$美光科技(MU)$ </a> 双杀","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MU\">$美光科技(MU)$ </a> 双杀","text":"$美光科技(MU)$ 双杀","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/321143827198016","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":155,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":319808775000160,"gmtCreate":1719108531609,"gmtModify":1719108534201,"author":{"id":"3555819458512632","authorId":"3555819458512632","name":"baiwan","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/96c94d7df5868f00b1de132be6a20e2c","crmLevel":7,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"高光时刻大概就是财报前 800 块买了 NV ，领头羊不是盖的，还是要买领头羊，跟风股不行不行 另外可惜了 Avago，本来重仓被洗掉了","listText":"高光时刻大概就是财报前 800 块买了 NV ，领头羊不是盖的，还是要买领头羊，跟风股不行不行 另外可惜了 Avago，本来重仓被洗掉了","text":"高光时刻大概就是财报前 800 块买了 NV ，领头羊不是盖的，还是要买领头羊，跟风股不行不行 另外可惜了 Avago，本来重仓被洗掉了","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/319808775000160","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":203,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":318654025494784,"gmtCreate":1718809949583,"gmtModify":1718809952519,"author":{"id":"3555819458512632","authorId":"3555819458512632","name":"baiwan","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/96c94d7df5868f00b1de132be6a20e2c","crmLevel":7,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Replying to <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/U/3539852183682927\">@浪游股海</a>:可以办新加坡卡//<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/U/3539852183682927\">@浪游股海</a>:账号注册很久了，香港银行卡拒我好多次，昨天才搞定，绑定成功 [得意]","listText":"Replying to <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/U/3539852183682927\">@浪游股海</a>:可以办新加坡卡//<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/U/3539852183682927\">@浪游股海</a>:账号注册很久了，香港银行卡拒我好多次，昨天才搞定，绑定成功 [得意]","text":"Replying to @浪游股海:可以办新加坡卡//@浪游股海:账号注册很久了，香港银行卡拒我好多次，昨天才搞定，绑定成功 [得意]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/318654025494784","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":140,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":318519278956640,"gmtCreate":1718777112707,"gmtModify":1718777114903,"author":{"id":"3555819458512632","authorId":"3555819458512632","name":"baiwan","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/96c94d7df5868f00b1de132be6a20e2c","crmLevel":7,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"哇哇哇 [捂脸] [捂脸] [捂脸]，这个不能提啊不能提","listText":"哇哇哇 [捂脸] [捂脸] [捂脸]，这个不能提啊不能提","text":"哇哇哇 [捂脸] [捂脸] [捂脸]，这个不能提啊不能提","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/318519278956640","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":133,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":316336862679112,"gmtCreate":1718256964470,"gmtModify":1718256966353,"author":{"id":"3555819458512632","authorId":"3555819458512632","name":"baiwan","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/96c94d7df5868f00b1de132be6a20e2c","crmLevel":7,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"特斯拉持续向好，稳中求进，突飞猛进✊","listText":"特斯拉持续向好，稳中求进，突飞猛进✊","text":"特斯拉持续向好，稳中求进，突飞猛进✊","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/316336862679112","repostId":"2443543922","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2443543922","pubTimestamp":1718243779,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2443543922?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2024-06-13 09:56","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"木头姐预测：2029年特斯拉股价将达2600美元，市值8.2万亿美元","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2443543922","media":"瓦砾村夫","summary":"我们把木头姐历年对于特斯拉的股价预测整理在一起，方便对比。ARK估计，到2029年，特斯拉近90%的市值和盈利将归功于robotaxi业务，如下图所示。因此，特斯拉应该能够证明其robotaxi网络具有卓越的、具有统计意义的安全指标，并获得监管部门的批准。假设Optimus能够承担特斯拉10-20%的工时，且生产率等于或两倍于人类同行，那么到2029年，Optimus将为特斯拉节省30-40亿美元，或1-2%的生产成本。如果决定对外销售Optimus，特斯拉可以在这个数万亿美元的市场中占据相当大","content":"<html><head></head><body><blockquote><p>ARK预计特斯拉将在未来两年内推出robotaxi服务，并估计到2029年特斯拉近90%的市值和盈利将归功于robotaxi业务。此外研究表明，FSD模式下的特斯拉比人类驾驶的特斯拉安全约5倍，比道路上的普通汽车安全约16倍。</p></blockquote><p>北京时间12日晚，木头姐的方舟投资公司(ARK Invest)公布了最新的<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">特斯拉</a>目标价及研报，这次依然是一个长线预测——五年之后的2029。我们把木头姐历年对于特斯拉的股价预测整理在一起，方便对比。最后一行是本次的最新预测。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/769b2fb85cec4890e0fd79cbfa275c1f\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"935\" tg-height=\"243\"/></p><p>在这份研报发布前，埃隆已经急不可待的拿着小板凳前排就坐，期待第一时间阅读了：</p><blockquote><p>“我很想读读这份报告。我对robotaxi和人形<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/300024\">机器人</a>思考的越多，估值就越荒谬。”</p><p>“他们（注：指方舟）一直是特斯拉价值最准确的预测者。”</p></blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/35ea43f18f1a455713c120ee11b8ccdc\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"934\" tg-height=\"408\"/></p><p>研报发布后，埃隆评论：“极其有挑战，但可以实现。”</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b6c840f9b4f312b51769145145f67275\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"927\" tg-height=\"900\"/></p><p>我们就跟着埃隆一起，仔细来读读木头姐的研报。以下是老瓦的全文翻译。研报作者为Tasha Keeney, Sam Korus, Daniel Maguire.</p><h2 id=\"id_1704046266\">综述</h2><p><strong>ARK更新后的开源特斯拉模型得出，2029年每股预期价格为2600美元。</strong>如下图所示，乐观和悲观的蒙特卡罗模拟结果分别为第75百分位数和第25百分位数，股价分别约为3100美元和2000美元。本研报介绍了ARK的开源特斯拉模型，这个模型结合了45个独立输入的分布，模拟了特斯拉公司及其股票的一系列潜在结果。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d97f8cc529fde741c200f32f3eabe448\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"925\" tg-height=\"242\"/></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/96e0d747ba4690b6067aa5c3a811d258\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"921\" tg-height=\"676\"/></p><p><strong>ARK估计，到2029年，特斯拉近90%的市值和盈利将归功于robotaxi业务</strong>，如下图所示。同时，电动汽车可能只占特斯拉总销售额的四分之一，及特斯拉盈利潜力的10%，因为我们认为robotaxi业务的利润率要高得多。下图按业务线细分了营收、息税折旧摊销前利润（EBITDA）和市值。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/38627971df52c95c7aa525f6a607f1f8\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"938\" tg-height=\"557\"/></p><p><em>绿：电动汽车；蓝：robotaxi；深灰：固定储能；黑：人工驾驶的出行服务；灰：保险</em></p><p>本文分为四个部分：</p><ul style=\"\"><li><p>悲观和乐观结果示例</p></li><li><p>对于ARK2023年特斯拉模型的更新</p></li><li><p>未纳入模型的商业机会</p></li><li><p>我们模型的风险和局限性</p></li></ul><h2 id=\"id_4092081209\">悲观和乐观结果示例</h2><p>我们没有提供单独的乐观或悲观建模，因为我们将这两个结果视为模拟结果的第75百分位数和第25百分位数。不过，下表列出了两种情况下的合理预测。</p><p><strong>悲观和乐观结果示例</strong></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8b7ad75a3e50459f29840ac0b5027326\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"932\" tg-height=\"409\"/></p><p>*注：“悲观”和“乐观”示例中，总息税折旧摊销前利润率和总毛利率的相似性反映了我们对两种情况下最合理的经济学观点。在悲观情况下，特斯拉的规模化程度没那么高，可以在较高的价位上维持更长时间，这有利于其利润结构。在乐观情况下，特斯拉电动汽车业务的毛利率和息税折旧摊销前利润率下降，因为它向价格较低的汽车细分市场销售，但能被占利润比例较大的打车业务抵消一部分。</p><h2 id=\"id_3680378521\">对于ARK2023年特斯拉模型的更新</h2><p>对于ARK2023年特斯拉开源模型的更新包括</p><ul style=\"\"><li><p>更新了自动驾驶的假设</p></li><li><p>更新了特斯拉生产制造的增长率</p></li><li><p>2029年模型对于一些并非我们价格估算的主要驱动因素的考虑</p></li></ul><p><strong>更新了自动驾驶的假设</strong></p><p>我们认为，<strong>特斯拉将在未来两年内推出robotaxi服务</strong>，如下图所示，特斯拉在五年内未能推出robotaxi服务的可能性微乎其微。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dfc2d7474d46e70c2b1e15f559b6fca8\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"908\" tg-height=\"657\"/></p><p><em>ARK模拟计算得出特斯拉首次推出robotaxi服务的不同年份的概率估算</em></p><p>虽然可能性不大，但如果我们从模型中排除robotaxi网络的可能性，我们的目标价格将为350美元左右。需要注意的是，在robotaxi没有推出的情况下，正如我们之前所分析的那样，特斯拉可能会出于战略和战术原因，推出人工驾驶的出行服务。</p><p>从建模的角度来看，我们之前估计特斯拉的收入分成约为40-60%，高于<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/UBER\">优步</a>的约20-30%。今年，我们对分析进行了微调，加入了以下假设：特斯拉最初将拥有并运营其车辆网络，在最初一到三年内保留所有营收。在此后的几年里，我们假设第三方公司将拥有并维护车队，每英里可获得约0.20 美元的服务营收，而剩余的每英里营收则归特斯拉所有。事实上，在这个模式的最后一年，特斯拉的平均分成约为 80%。与此同时，我们将首次推出robotaxi服务的中值预期修改为2025年底。</p><p>虽然我们将特斯拉robotaxi服务的中值预期推出日期推迟了一年，但我们仍然相信这项服务将在未来五年内推出。随着FSD v12版本的发布，特斯拉过渡到了从视频数据中学习并直接控制车辆的神经网络，从而消除了30多万行人工代码。通过利用特斯拉巨大的数据优势（目前FSD累计行驶里程已超过13亿英里），这一更新实现了类似于人类的——在某些情况下是零干预的驾驶。根据我们的研究，特斯拉积累数据的速度是Waymo的110倍，如下图所示。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/10fe1ae3533c5574261f7a5abbb6d024\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"935\" tg-height=\"685\"/></p><p><em>积累驾驶里程的速度，单位：百万英里/每年。<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BIDU\">百度</a> vs Waymo vs 特斯拉 vs Cruise</em></p><p>此外，<strong>我们的研究表明，FSD模式下的特斯拉比人类驾驶的特斯拉安全约5倍，比道路上的普通汽车安全约16倍</strong>，如下图所示。不再受人工智能训练算力的限制之后，特斯拉加速的软件更新正在提高性能和安全性。因此，特斯拉应该能够证明其robotaxi网络具有卓越的、具有统计意义的安全指标，并获得监管部门的批准。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6ae889b8d4190560ca9f086377586121\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"909\" tg-height=\"672\"/></p><p><em>仅在城市街道中，每次碰撞事故的间隔里程（单位：千英里）。特斯拉FSD模式（2023年）vs 特斯拉人工驾驶模式（2022年，ARK修正）vs Waymo（2023年，公司修正）vs 全美平均（2022年，ARK修正）vs Cruise (2023年，公司修正）</em></p><p>特斯拉计划在2024年8月发布robotaxi专用车辆。虽然特斯拉可以将其现有车队改造成robotaxi，但我们认为，定制化的CyberCab反映出特斯拉对其自动驾驶软件将使特斯拉扩大robotaxi业务规模的信心增强了。同时，FSD在北美的30天免费试用增加了特斯拉的数据库，据传特斯拉将很快在中国推出FSD。最后，特斯拉在最新财报中公布了出行app的效果图，这预示着这一商业模式的发布，而且可能会首先推出人类司机，为机器人司机铺平道路。我们对特斯拉在未来五年内推出robotaxi网络的能力信心大增。因此，随着每辆汽车都成为人工智能驱动的现金流生成机器，特斯拉的商业模式应该从一次性汽车销售转变为经常性收入基础。</p><p><strong>更新了特斯拉生产制造的增长率</strong></p><p>在我们的预期价格例子中，2024年是持平略增长的一年，之后到2029年底，汽车产量每年增长45%。在今年之后，我们预计特斯拉的规模扩张能力将取决于管理带宽和特斯拉开设新工厂的能力。随着产量从现在的每年180万辆增加到每年600万到1600万辆，大数法则应该会导致增长率降低。robotaxi可能会通过简化车辆设计来缓解生产规模的扩大，并通过高现金流生成能力的出行服务产生额外的资本。我们还预计，大多数robotaxi将出售给车队所有者，而不是个人，这有可能简化销售渠道。</p><p><strong>2029年模型对于一些并非我们价格估算的主要驱动因素的考虑</strong></p><ul style=\"\"><li><p>Optimus</p></li></ul><p>我们认为Optimus对我们的目标价格影响甚微。在未来十年，我们预计特斯拉将成为在物理空间移动的机器人的领先制造商和服务提供商，因为它将有机会利用从robotaxi学习到的知识、自研的推理芯片、训练算力和生产规模。特斯拉预计Optimus将在今年年底前完成有用的工厂任务。假设Optimus能够承担特斯拉10-20%的工时，且生产率等于或两倍于人类同行，那么到2029年，Optimus将为特斯拉节省30-40亿美元，或1-2%的生产成本。</p><p>我们的研究表明，通用人形机器人代表着约24万亿美元全球规模的收入机会，其中约50%在制造业。如果决定对外销售Optimus，特斯拉可以在这个数万亿美元的市场中占据相当大的份额，尽管有意义的商业化增长可能会发生在本模型所覆盖的五年之后。</p><ul style=\"\"><li><p>固定储能</p></li></ul><p>我们估计，特斯拉的固定储能增长速度将超过汽车的增长速度，到2029年可增长至约850吉瓦时的能量。但是，如果电池成为限制因素，特斯拉可能会优先考虑robotaxi，以获得更高的投资回报，如下图所示。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/aa947d0b5f9b8d13170dae85aaed8ffc\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"936\" tg-height=\"682\"/></p><p><em>2029年预期价格例子中，平均每千瓦时电池的部署带来的息税前利润(EBIT)，固定储能 vs 电动汽车 vs 电动汽车用于出行 vs 电动汽车用于robotaxi</em></p><h2 id=\"id_2122889387\">未纳入模型的商业机会</h2><ul style=\"\"><li><p>特斯拉Semi</p></li></ul><p><strong>特斯拉计划在2026年实现Semi的商业化。我们认为，特斯拉Semi不会在我们的五年投资期限内对特斯拉的价值做出重大贡献。</strong></p><ul style=\"\"><li><p>超充网络</p></li></ul><p>今年，在福特和<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GM\">通用汽车</a>以及<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BP\">英国石油</a>公司（BP）等合作伙伴的支持下，特斯拉将其技术巩固成为了北美充电标准。根据ARK的研究，超级充电站虽然对电动汽车至关重要，但不太可能为特斯拉带来可观的收入。即使超级充电站网络继续以目前的速度增长，其利用率从平均约11%提高到加油站的约34%，与特斯拉robotaxi业务的规模相比，它对我们目标价格的财务影响也是微不足道的。</p><ul style=\"\"><li><p>FSD许可</p></li></ul><p>特斯拉目前正在讨论将其FSD软件许可给一家汽车制造商的事宜。虽然这对特斯拉来说可能是一件大事，但根据传统汽车行业从设计到生产的时间表，非特斯拉公司的配备FSD的汽车可能要在数年后才会亮相。</p><p>即便如此，就如在线升级（OTA）一样，汽车制造商可能会在部分车型上试用FSD，或许会优先考虑电动传动系统——最近，其在传统汽车生产计划上有所落后。我们的研究表明，在未来五年内，FSD许可不太可能影响特斯拉的收入或盈利。</p><ul style=\"\"><li><p>人工智能服务（AI-As-A-Service）</p></li></ul><p>特斯拉提供分布式人工智能推理服务（AI-inference-as-a-service, IaaS）和Dojo训练服务（training-as-a-service）的计划可能超出了我们的五年投资期限。虽然将分布式人工智能推理服务整合到个人拥有的车辆中可能会带来一些挑战，如不稳定的Wi-Fi连接和停车期间的调度瓶颈，但robotaxi车队可以解决其中的一些问题。专用的充电基础设施和稳定的互联网接入，再加上可靠的车辆行驶时间安排，可以形成一个支持人工智能IaaS服务的组织结构。</p><p>尽管特斯拉管理层在2024年1月的一季度财报电话会议上淡化了Dojo的工作，但特斯拉已于今年开始生产下一代Dojo芯片瓦，这表明其工作取得了进展。Dojo可能会成为特斯拉内部算力的重要贡献者，但与去年类似，我们预计Dojo的外部使用不会在未来五年内对特斯拉的价值做出有意义的贡献。</p><h2 id=\"id_2933594645\">蒙特卡洛模型的风险和局限性</h2><p>ARK的45个独立变量，涵盖了我们认为特斯拉未来五年可能出现的各种情况。埃隆·马斯克突然离开公司、自然灾害或大流行病等意外事件可能会使这些结果大打折扣。</p><h2 id=\"id_1897377602\">结论</h2><p>综上所述，ARK的特斯拉目标价格为2029年每股2600美元。我们的悲观和乐观例子表明，2029年特斯拉的估值可能在每股2000美元到3100美元之间。我们已在GitHub上发布了我们的模拟模型，并邀请读者探索和测试假设和/或根据模拟创建可视化效果。</p></body></html>","source":"lsy1649056886487","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>木头姐预测：2029年特斯拉股价将达2600美元，市值8.2万亿美元</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ 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left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n木头姐预测：2029年特斯拉股价将达2600美元，市值8.2万亿美元\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2024-06-13 09:56 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/635yVJlYRV76k-Y31qryYA><strong>瓦砾村夫</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>ARK预计特斯拉将在未来两年内推出robotaxi服务，并估计到2029年特斯拉近90%的市值和盈利将归功于robotaxi业务。此外研究表明，FSD模式下的特斯拉比人类驾驶的特斯拉安全约5倍，比道路上的普通汽车安全约16倍。北京时间12日晚，木头姐的方舟投资公司(ARK Invest)公布了最新的特斯拉目标价及研报，这次依然是一个长线预测——五年之后的2029。我们把木头姐历年对于特斯拉的股价...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/635yVJlYRV76k-Y31qryYA\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/02aa1d39b690f855d602a8d705c8496d","relate_stocks":{"LU2326559502.SGD":"Natixis Loomis Sayles US Growth Equity P/A SGD-H","TSLA":"特斯拉","LU1852331112.SGD":"Blackrock World Technology Fund A2 SGD-H","LU1861215975.USD":"贝莱德新一代科技基金 A2","LU0198837287.USD":"UBS (LUX) EQUITY SICAV - USA GROWTH \"P\" (USD) ACC","BK4592":"伊斯兰概念","LU0316494557.USD":"FRANKLIN GLOBAL FUNDAMENTAL STRATEGIES \"A\" ACC","LU1861558580.USD":"日兴方舟颠覆性创新基金B","LU1861220033.SGD":"Blackrock Next Generation Technology 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ACC"},"source_url":"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/635yVJlYRV76k-Y31qryYA","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2443543922","content_text":"ARK预计特斯拉将在未来两年内推出robotaxi服务，并估计到2029年特斯拉近90%的市值和盈利将归功于robotaxi业务。此外研究表明，FSD模式下的特斯拉比人类驾驶的特斯拉安全约5倍，比道路上的普通汽车安全约16倍。北京时间12日晚，木头姐的方舟投资公司(ARK Invest)公布了最新的特斯拉目标价及研报，这次依然是一个长线预测——五年之后的2029。我们把木头姐历年对于特斯拉的股价预测整理在一起，方便对比。最后一行是本次的最新预测。在这份研报发布前，埃隆已经急不可待的拿着小板凳前排就坐，期待第一时间阅读了：“我很想读读这份报告。我对robotaxi和人形机器人思考的越多，估值就越荒谬。”“他们（注：指方舟）一直是特斯拉价值最准确的预测者。”研报发布后，埃隆评论：“极其有挑战，但可以实现。”我们就跟着埃隆一起，仔细来读读木头姐的研报。以下是老瓦的全文翻译。研报作者为Tasha Keeney, Sam Korus, Daniel Maguire.综述ARK更新后的开源特斯拉模型得出，2029年每股预期价格为2600美元。如下图所示，乐观和悲观的蒙特卡罗模拟结果分别为第75百分位数和第25百分位数，股价分别约为3100美元和2000美元。本研报介绍了ARK的开源特斯拉模型，这个模型结合了45个独立输入的分布，模拟了特斯拉公司及其股票的一系列潜在结果。ARK估计，到2029年，特斯拉近90%的市值和盈利将归功于robotaxi业务，如下图所示。同时，电动汽车可能只占特斯拉总销售额的四分之一，及特斯拉盈利潜力的10%，因为我们认为robotaxi业务的利润率要高得多。下图按业务线细分了营收、息税折旧摊销前利润（EBITDA）和市值。绿：电动汽车；蓝：robotaxi；深灰：固定储能；黑：人工驾驶的出行服务；灰：保险本文分为四个部分：悲观和乐观结果示例对于ARK2023年特斯拉模型的更新未纳入模型的商业机会我们模型的风险和局限性悲观和乐观结果示例我们没有提供单独的乐观或悲观建模，因为我们将这两个结果视为模拟结果的第75百分位数和第25百分位数。不过，下表列出了两种情况下的合理预测。悲观和乐观结果示例*注：“悲观”和“乐观”示例中，总息税折旧摊销前利润率和总毛利率的相似性反映了我们对两种情况下最合理的经济学观点。在悲观情况下，特斯拉的规模化程度没那么高，可以在较高的价位上维持更长时间，这有利于其利润结构。在乐观情况下，特斯拉电动汽车业务的毛利率和息税折旧摊销前利润率下降，因为它向价格较低的汽车细分市场销售，但能被占利润比例较大的打车业务抵消一部分。对于ARK2023年特斯拉模型的更新对于ARK2023年特斯拉开源模型的更新包括更新了自动驾驶的假设更新了特斯拉生产制造的增长率2029年模型对于一些并非我们价格估算的主要驱动因素的考虑更新了自动驾驶的假设我们认为，特斯拉将在未来两年内推出robotaxi服务，如下图所示，特斯拉在五年内未能推出robotaxi服务的可能性微乎其微。ARK模拟计算得出特斯拉首次推出robotaxi服务的不同年份的概率估算虽然可能性不大，但如果我们从模型中排除robotaxi网络的可能性，我们的目标价格将为350美元左右。需要注意的是，在robotaxi没有推出的情况下，正如我们之前所分析的那样，特斯拉可能会出于战略和战术原因，推出人工驾驶的出行服务。从建模的角度来看，我们之前估计特斯拉的收入分成约为40-60%，高于优步的约20-30%。今年，我们对分析进行了微调，加入了以下假设：特斯拉最初将拥有并运营其车辆网络，在最初一到三年内保留所有营收。在此后的几年里，我们假设第三方公司将拥有并维护车队，每英里可获得约0.20 美元的服务营收，而剩余的每英里营收则归特斯拉所有。事实上，在这个模式的最后一年，特斯拉的平均分成约为 80%。与此同时，我们将首次推出robotaxi服务的中值预期修改为2025年底。虽然我们将特斯拉robotaxi服务的中值预期推出日期推迟了一年，但我们仍然相信这项服务将在未来五年内推出。随着FSD v12版本的发布，特斯拉过渡到了从视频数据中学习并直接控制车辆的神经网络，从而消除了30多万行人工代码。通过利用特斯拉巨大的数据优势（目前FSD累计行驶里程已超过13亿英里），这一更新实现了类似于人类的——在某些情况下是零干预的驾驶。根据我们的研究，特斯拉积累数据的速度是Waymo的110倍，如下图所示。积累驾驶里程的速度，单位：百万英里/每年。百度 vs Waymo vs 特斯拉 vs Cruise此外，我们的研究表明，FSD模式下的特斯拉比人类驾驶的特斯拉安全约5倍，比道路上的普通汽车安全约16倍，如下图所示。不再受人工智能训练算力的限制之后，特斯拉加速的软件更新正在提高性能和安全性。因此，特斯拉应该能够证明其robotaxi网络具有卓越的、具有统计意义的安全指标，并获得监管部门的批准。仅在城市街道中，每次碰撞事故的间隔里程（单位：千英里）。特斯拉FSD模式（2023年）vs 特斯拉人工驾驶模式（2022年，ARK修正）vs Waymo（2023年，公司修正）vs 全美平均（2022年，ARK修正）vs Cruise (2023年，公司修正）特斯拉计划在2024年8月发布robotaxi专用车辆。虽然特斯拉可以将其现有车队改造成robotaxi，但我们认为，定制化的CyberCab反映出特斯拉对其自动驾驶软件将使特斯拉扩大robotaxi业务规模的信心增强了。同时，FSD在北美的30天免费试用增加了特斯拉的数据库，据传特斯拉将很快在中国推出FSD。最后，特斯拉在最新财报中公布了出行app的效果图，这预示着这一商业模式的发布，而且可能会首先推出人类司机，为机器人司机铺平道路。我们对特斯拉在未来五年内推出robotaxi网络的能力信心大增。因此，随着每辆汽车都成为人工智能驱动的现金流生成机器，特斯拉的商业模式应该从一次性汽车销售转变为经常性收入基础。更新了特斯拉生产制造的增长率在我们的预期价格例子中，2024年是持平略增长的一年，之后到2029年底，汽车产量每年增长45%。在今年之后，我们预计特斯拉的规模扩张能力将取决于管理带宽和特斯拉开设新工厂的能力。随着产量从现在的每年180万辆增加到每年600万到1600万辆，大数法则应该会导致增长率降低。robotaxi可能会通过简化车辆设计来缓解生产规模的扩大，并通过高现金流生成能力的出行服务产生额外的资本。我们还预计，大多数robotaxi将出售给车队所有者，而不是个人，这有可能简化销售渠道。2029年模型对于一些并非我们价格估算的主要驱动因素的考虑Optimus我们认为Optimus对我们的目标价格影响甚微。在未来十年，我们预计特斯拉将成为在物理空间移动的机器人的领先制造商和服务提供商，因为它将有机会利用从robotaxi学习到的知识、自研的推理芯片、训练算力和生产规模。特斯拉预计Optimus将在今年年底前完成有用的工厂任务。假设Optimus能够承担特斯拉10-20%的工时，且生产率等于或两倍于人类同行，那么到2029年，Optimus将为特斯拉节省30-40亿美元，或1-2%的生产成本。我们的研究表明，通用人形机器人代表着约24万亿美元全球规模的收入机会，其中约50%在制造业。如果决定对外销售Optimus，特斯拉可以在这个数万亿美元的市场中占据相当大的份额，尽管有意义的商业化增长可能会发生在本模型所覆盖的五年之后。固定储能我们估计，特斯拉的固定储能增长速度将超过汽车的增长速度，到2029年可增长至约850吉瓦时的能量。但是，如果电池成为限制因素，特斯拉可能会优先考虑robotaxi，以获得更高的投资回报，如下图所示。2029年预期价格例子中，平均每千瓦时电池的部署带来的息税前利润(EBIT)，固定储能 vs 电动汽车 vs 电动汽车用于出行 vs 电动汽车用于robotaxi未纳入模型的商业机会特斯拉Semi特斯拉计划在2026年实现Semi的商业化。我们认为，特斯拉Semi不会在我们的五年投资期限内对特斯拉的价值做出重大贡献。超充网络今年，在福特和通用汽车以及英国石油公司（BP）等合作伙伴的支持下，特斯拉将其技术巩固成为了北美充电标准。根据ARK的研究，超级充电站虽然对电动汽车至关重要，但不太可能为特斯拉带来可观的收入。即使超级充电站网络继续以目前的速度增长，其利用率从平均约11%提高到加油站的约34%，与特斯拉robotaxi业务的规模相比，它对我们目标价格的财务影响也是微不足道的。FSD许可特斯拉目前正在讨论将其FSD软件许可给一家汽车制造商的事宜。虽然这对特斯拉来说可能是一件大事，但根据传统汽车行业从设计到生产的时间表，非特斯拉公司的配备FSD的汽车可能要在数年后才会亮相。即便如此，就如在线升级（OTA）一样，汽车制造商可能会在部分车型上试用FSD，或许会优先考虑电动传动系统——最近，其在传统汽车生产计划上有所落后。我们的研究表明，在未来五年内，FSD许可不太可能影响特斯拉的收入或盈利。人工智能服务（AI-As-A-Service）特斯拉提供分布式人工智能推理服务（AI-inference-as-a-service, IaaS）和Dojo训练服务（training-as-a-service）的计划可能超出了我们的五年投资期限。虽然将分布式人工智能推理服务整合到个人拥有的车辆中可能会带来一些挑战，如不稳定的Wi-Fi连接和停车期间的调度瓶颈，但robotaxi车队可以解决其中的一些问题。专用的充电基础设施和稳定的互联网接入，再加上可靠的车辆行驶时间安排，可以形成一个支持人工智能IaaS服务的组织结构。尽管特斯拉管理层在2024年1月的一季度财报电话会议上淡化了Dojo的工作，但特斯拉已于今年开始生产下一代Dojo芯片瓦，这表明其工作取得了进展。Dojo可能会成为特斯拉内部算力的重要贡献者，但与去年类似，我们预计Dojo的外部使用不会在未来五年内对特斯拉的价值做出有意义的贡献。蒙特卡洛模型的风险和局限性ARK的45个独立变量，涵盖了我们认为特斯拉未来五年可能出现的各种情况。埃隆·马斯克突然离开公司、自然灾害或大流行病等意外事件可能会使这些结果大打折扣。结论综上所述，ARK的特斯拉目标价格为2029年每股2600美元。我们的悲观和乐观例子表明，2029年特斯拉的估值可能在每股2000美元到3100美元之间。我们已在GitHub上发布了我们的模拟模型，并邀请读者探索和测试假设和/或根据模拟创建可视化效果。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":70,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":316130272694456,"gmtCreate":1718206529522,"gmtModify":1718206531622,"author":{"id":"3555819458512632","authorId":"3555819458512632","name":"baiwan","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/96c94d7df5868f00b1de132be6a20e2c","crmLevel":7,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">$特斯拉(TSLA)$&nbsp;</a><v-v data-views=\"0\"></v-v> 又来看空了[捂嘴]&nbsp;&nbsp;，希望还能蒙对 ，这次看到点位有点低哈， 原因，内讧的团队应该要受到惩罚， 个人观点，不喜勿喷，感谢(^🙏^)","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">$特斯拉(TSLA)$&nbsp;</a><v-v data-views=\"0\"></v-v> 又来看空了[捂嘴]&nbsp;&nbsp;，希望还能蒙对 ，这次看到点位有点低哈， 原因，内讧的团队应该要受到惩罚， 个人观点，不喜勿喷，感谢(^🙏^)","text":"$特斯拉(TSLA)$ 又来看空了[捂嘴] ，希望还能蒙对 ，这次看到点位有点低哈， 原因，内讧的团队应该要受到惩罚， 个人观点，不喜勿喷，感谢(^🙏^)","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/316130272694456","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":429,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":316127216734256,"gmtCreate":1718205780193,"gmtModify":1718205782434,"author":{"id":"3555819458512632","authorId":"3555819458512632","name":"baiwan","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/96c94d7df5868f00b1de132be6a20e2c","crmLevel":7,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"就说我从赚了很多到赔了一半，现在还在努力，你说久不久","listText":"就说我从赚了很多到赔了一半，现在还在努力，你说久不久","text":"就说我从赚了很多到赔了一半，现在还在努力，你说久不久","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/316127216734256","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":81,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":316043534622928,"gmtCreate":1718185469793,"gmtModify":1718188486391,"author":{"id":"3555819458512632","authorId":"3555819458512632","name":"baiwan","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/96c94d7df5868f00b1de132be6a20e2c","crmLevel":7,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">$英伟达(NVDA)$&nbsp;</a><v-v data-views=\"1\"></v-v> 拆股已经完成，应该要有一个调整期来应对下一季财报 150 的目标，所以 100 块是不错的点位","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">$英伟达(NVDA)$&nbsp;</a><v-v data-views=\"1\"></v-v> 拆股已经完成，应该要有一个调整期来应对下一季财报 150 的目标，所以 100 块是不错的点位","text":"$英伟达(NVDA)$ 拆股已经完成，应该要有一个调整期来应对下一季财报 150 的目标，所以 100 块是不错的点位","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/316043534622928","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":6902,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":315657305473208,"gmtCreate":1718095602433,"gmtModify":1718095604822,"author":{"id":"3555819458512632","authorId":"3555819458512632","name":"baiwan","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/96c94d7df5868f00b1de132be6a20e2c","crmLevel":7,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"我的计划是，没有计划，边走边看，目前又到了选择的边缘，未来一个月可能有更大的风险在等着","listText":"我的计划是，没有计划，边走边看，目前又到了选择的边缘，未来一个月可能有更大的风险在等着","text":"我的计划是，没有计划，边走边看，目前又到了选择的边缘，未来一个月可能有更大的风险在等着","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/315657305473208","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":162,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":314305251168496,"gmtCreate":1717765514131,"gmtModify":1717766525089,"author":{"id":"3555819458512632","authorId":"3555819458512632","name":"baiwan","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/96c94d7df5868f00b1de132be6a20e2c","crmLevel":7,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">$英伟达(NVDA)$&nbsp;</a><v-v data-views=\"1\"></v-v> 无脑看 1500","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">$英伟达(NVDA)$&nbsp;</a><v-v data-views=\"1\"></v-v> 无脑看 1500","text":"$英伟达(NVDA)$ 无脑看 1500","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/314305251168496","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":501,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":314293999804496,"gmtCreate":1717764403517,"gmtModify":1717764405404,"author":{"id":"3555819458512632","authorId":"3555819458512632","name":"baiwan","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/96c94d7df5868f00b1de132be6a20e2c","crmLevel":7,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">$英伟达(NVDA)$&nbsp;</a><v-v data-views=\"1\"></v-v> 天空的尽头都没有达子，达子已到外太空","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">$英伟达(NVDA)$&nbsp;</a><v-v data-views=\"1\"></v-v> 天空的尽头都没有达子，达子已到外太空","text":"$英伟达(NVDA)$ 天空的尽头都没有达子，达子已到外太空","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/314293999804496","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":779,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":311479648772368,"gmtCreate":1717070820397,"gmtModify":1717070822002,"author":{"id":"3555819458512632","authorId":"3555819458512632","name":"baiwan","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/96c94d7df5868f00b1de132be6a20e2c","crmLevel":7,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">$英伟达(NVDA)$&nbsp;</a><v-v data-views=\"1\"></v-v> 必须要今天就超过啊，不用怀疑不用害怕，信仰比技术线图靠谱","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">$英伟达(NVDA)$&nbsp;</a><v-v data-views=\"1\"></v-v> 必须要今天就超过啊，不用怀疑不用害怕，信仰比技术线图靠谱","text":"$英伟达(NVDA)$ 必须要今天就超过啊，不用怀疑不用害怕，信仰比技术线图靠谱","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/311479648772368","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":474,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":310804963369032,"gmtCreate":1716907451952,"gmtModify":1716907454813,"author":{"id":"3555819458512632","authorId":"3555819458512632","name":"baiwan","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/96c94d7df5868f00b1de132be6a20e2c","crmLevel":7,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"拉跨的很","listText":"拉跨的很","text":"拉跨的很","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/310804963369032","repostId":"2438349304","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2438349304","pubTimestamp":1716893149,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2438349304?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2024-05-28 18:45","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"华尔街要推中概版“Mag 7 ”——“Lucky 8”","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2438349304","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"初始成分股包括腾讯、阿里巴巴、美团、比亚迪、小米、拼多多、京东和百度。","content":"<html><head></head><body><blockquote><p>Lucky Eight ETF的交易代码为“LCKY”，初始成分股包括腾讯、阿里巴巴、美团、比亚迪、小米、拼多多、京东和百度，等权配置仓位，有望于今夏上市。</p></blockquote><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">前有科技股“七姐妹”，后有中概股“Lucky 8”。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">据媒体报道，继美股“七姐妹”ETF MAGS后，知名投资公司Roundhill Investments计划推出中概科技股ETF Lucky 8。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">据介绍，Lucky 8 ETF定位为中概版的“Mag 7”，交易代码为“LCKY”，为等权重指数基金，初始成分股包括<strong>腾讯、阿里巴巴、美团、比亚迪、小米、拼多多、京东和百度。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Roundhill首席执行官Dave Mazza解释之所以选择这8只股票，是因为其“在技术创新上占据市场主导地位”，并表示：</p><blockquote><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">“如果经济加速增长，这可能是投资者进入中国市场的机会。”</p></blockquote><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">据悉，一旦该ETF获得美国证券交易委员会（SEC）批准，<strong>将于今年夏天正式推出。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">值得注意的是，美音美林在今年3月初曾发布研报称，由国企主导的银行保险（Yinhang）、运营商（Yunyingshang）、电信（Dianxin）和石油煤炭（Shiyoumeitan）已经中国股市今年以来的四大高收益板块，也可以看作是中国版的“Mag 7”，堪称“YYDS”（永远的神）。</p><h2 id=\"id_2985730457\">Lucky 8强在哪？</h2><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">近月以来，港股上演出一场“史诗级”大反攻，领涨全球市场，其中互联网公司功不可没。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">行情数据显示，<strong>今年以来，国内5只中概互联网/科技ETF多数实现约15%以上的涨幅。</strong>尤其是本月来多个互联网巨头陆续披露最新业绩报告，优异的“成绩单”为其中4只ETF贡献了约10%的涨幅。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3437c79787bac1fd9376a693a0052eed\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"464\"/></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">不过，目前我国场内5只中概互联网/科技ETF的跟踪标的均为中国互联网30、全球中国互联网等综合指数，指数成分股高达50个，和股票型基金相比，跟踪的灵活性和精确性均有所折扣。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">这点也是Dave Mazza计划推出Lucky 8的缘由之一：</p><blockquote><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">“如果你只想买这些公司的股票，一些传统的中概股ETF很难做到，但Lucky 8可以。”</p></blockquote><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>中长期看，国内外投资机构和外资巨头也对看好互联网巨头盈利前景。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">招商证券在近期发布的报告中指出，在最近的两周时间里，受整体股市情绪提振的积极影响，中国互联网行业估值已从底部开始逐步企稳回升。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">华创证券指出，近两年恒生科技板块开启“高质量发展”，目前仍有估值性价比，随着基本面回暖、现金流改善、分红派息提升，估值修复行情有望持续。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">高盛预期，消费科技与服务相关产业将脱颖而出，倾向于投资具备优质资质的大型企业，并重视其现金回报能力。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">此前报道称，传奇对冲基金经理Michael Burry、对冲基金传奇人物David Tepper管理的两家基金也于一季度加大了对京东、阿里、百度等中概科技股的押注。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Lucky 8今年以来的股价表现和最新业绩情况具体如下：</p><blockquote><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">美团-W（03690.HK）累计上涨45.18%，Q4营收同比增长22.6%至737.0亿元，经调整后净利润涨超4倍，全年营收扭亏为盈。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">腾讯控股（00700.HK）累计上涨30.61%，Q1营收同比增长6%至1595亿元，净利润大增54%，视频号使用时长增超80%，毛利增速连续六个季度跑赢营收。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">小米集团-W（01810.HK）累计上涨16.3%，Q1营收同比增长27%至755.1亿元，经调整后净利润同比增超100%，整体毛利率提升2.8个百分点至22.3%。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">京东（JD）累计上涨7.78%，Q1净营收同比增长7%至2600.5亿元，净利润同比增长18.8%至73.7亿元，同样超预期，物流业务营收扭亏为盈。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">拼多多（PDD）累计上涨7.7%，Q1营收同比增长131%至868.1亿元，净利润同比暴增202%至306.0亿元，均远超预期。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">阿里巴巴（BABA）Q4营收同比增加6.6%至2218.7亿元，经调整后净利润同比下滑11%，海外电商营收大增45%。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">比亚迪股份（01211.HK）累计下跌3.36%，Q1营收同比增3.97%至1249.44亿元，净利同比增11%至45.7亿元。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">百度（BIDU）累计下跌15.79%，Q1营收同比微增1%至315亿元，净利润同比增长22%。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/696c16ce1865a4c56da08e1949170f6c\" tg-width=\"563\" tg-height=\"437\"/></p></blockquote></body></html>","source":"wallstreetcn_hot_news","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>华尔街要推中概版“Mag 7 ”——“Lucky 8”</title>\n<style 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margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n华尔街要推中概版“Mag 7 ”——“Lucky 8”\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2024-05-28 18:45 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3715920><strong>华尔街见闻</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Lucky Eight ETF的交易代码为“LCKY”，初始成分股包括腾讯、阿里巴巴、美团、比亚迪、小米、拼多多、京东和百度，等权配置仓位，有望于今夏上市。前有科技股“七姐妹”，后有中概股“Lucky 8”。据媒体报道，继美股“七姐妹”ETF MAGS后，知名投资公司Roundhill Investments计划推出中概科技股ETF Lucky 8。据介绍，Lucky 8 ETF定位为中概版的“...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3715920\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5d1fe578ee46cbe0d24c33435ff25ae5","relate_stocks":{"BABA":"阿里巴巴","JD":"京东","01211":"比亚迪股份","09988":"阿里巴巴-SW","BIDU":"百度","09618":"京东集团-SW","00700":"腾讯控股","01810":"小米集团-W","03690":"美团-W"},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3715920","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2438349304","content_text":"Lucky Eight ETF的交易代码为“LCKY”，初始成分股包括腾讯、阿里巴巴、美团、比亚迪、小米、拼多多、京东和百度，等权配置仓位，有望于今夏上市。前有科技股“七姐妹”，后有中概股“Lucky 8”。据媒体报道，继美股“七姐妹”ETF MAGS后，知名投资公司Roundhill Investments计划推出中概科技股ETF Lucky 8。据介绍，Lucky 8 ETF定位为中概版的“Mag 7”，交易代码为“LCKY”，为等权重指数基金，初始成分股包括腾讯、阿里巴巴、美团、比亚迪、小米、拼多多、京东和百度。Roundhill首席执行官Dave Mazza解释之所以选择这8只股票，是因为其“在技术创新上占据市场主导地位”，并表示：“如果经济加速增长，这可能是投资者进入中国市场的机会。”据悉，一旦该ETF获得美国证券交易委员会（SEC）批准，将于今年夏天正式推出。值得注意的是，美音美林在今年3月初曾发布研报称，由国企主导的银行保险（Yinhang）、运营商（Yunyingshang）、电信（Dianxin）和石油煤炭（Shiyoumeitan）已经中国股市今年以来的四大高收益板块，也可以看作是中国版的“Mag 7”，堪称“YYDS”（永远的神）。Lucky 8强在哪？近月以来，港股上演出一场“史诗级”大反攻，领涨全球市场，其中互联网公司功不可没。行情数据显示，今年以来，国内5只中概互联网/科技ETF多数实现约15%以上的涨幅。尤其是本月来多个互联网巨头陆续披露最新业绩报告，优异的“成绩单”为其中4只ETF贡献了约10%的涨幅。不过，目前我国场内5只中概互联网/科技ETF的跟踪标的均为中国互联网30、全球中国互联网等综合指数，指数成分股高达50个，和股票型基金相比，跟踪的灵活性和精确性均有所折扣。这点也是Dave Mazza计划推出Lucky 8的缘由之一：“如果你只想买这些公司的股票，一些传统的中概股ETF很难做到，但Lucky 8可以。”中长期看，国内外投资机构和外资巨头也对看好互联网巨头盈利前景。招商证券在近期发布的报告中指出，在最近的两周时间里，受整体股市情绪提振的积极影响，中国互联网行业估值已从底部开始逐步企稳回升。华创证券指出，近两年恒生科技板块开启“高质量发展”，目前仍有估值性价比，随着基本面回暖、现金流改善、分红派息提升，估值修复行情有望持续。高盛预期，消费科技与服务相关产业将脱颖而出，倾向于投资具备优质资质的大型企业，并重视其现金回报能力。此前报道称，传奇对冲基金经理Michael Burry、对冲基金传奇人物David Tepper管理的两家基金也于一季度加大了对京东、阿里、百度等中概科技股的押注。Lucky 8今年以来的股价表现和最新业绩情况具体如下：美团-W（03690.HK）累计上涨45.18%，Q4营收同比增长22.6%至737.0亿元，经调整后净利润涨超4倍，全年营收扭亏为盈。腾讯控股（00700.HK）累计上涨30.61%，Q1营收同比增长6%至1595亿元，净利润大增54%，视频号使用时长增超80%，毛利增速连续六个季度跑赢营收。小米集团-W（01810.HK）累计上涨16.3%，Q1营收同比增长27%至755.1亿元，经调整后净利润同比增超100%，整体毛利率提升2.8个百分点至22.3%。京东（JD）累计上涨7.78%，Q1净营收同比增长7%至2600.5亿元，净利润同比增长18.8%至73.7亿元，同样超预期，物流业务营收扭亏为盈。拼多多（PDD）累计上涨7.7%，Q1营收同比增长131%至868.1亿元，净利润同比暴增202%至306.0亿元，均远超预期。阿里巴巴（BABA）Q4营收同比增加6.6%至2218.7亿元，经调整后净利润同比下滑11%，海外电商营收大增45%。比亚迪股份（01211.HK）累计下跌3.36%，Q1营收同比增3.97%至1249.44亿元，净利同比增11%至45.7亿元。百度（BIDU）累计下跌15.79%，Q1营收同比微增1%至315亿元，净利润同比增长22%。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":157,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":310606620086328,"gmtCreate":1716859165046,"gmtModify":1716859167201,"author":{"id":"3555819458512632","authorId":"3555819458512632","name":"baiwan","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/96c94d7df5868f00b1de132be6a20e2c","crmLevel":7,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"A 股这样也少不了你的贡献","listText":"A 股这样也少不了你的贡献","text":"A 股这样也少不了你的贡献","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/310606620086328","repostId":"2438436558","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2438436558","pubTimestamp":1716853028,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2438436558?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2024-05-28 07:37","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"意外！英伟达，突遭\"空袭\"！","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2438436558","media":"券商中国","summary":"但华尔街分析师突然发出警告称，英伟达股价的涨势暗藏巨大风险，未来或将暴跌20%。但Gil Luria预测，这一趋势将会动摇，在未来18个月内，英伟达的股价将出现两位数的暴跌。上述两大巨头均在第一季度增持了英伟达的股份。这意味着，这两家机构仍看好英伟达未来的增长前景。其中，英伟达宣布的“1拆10”拆股计划将于6月7日正式生效。","content":"<html><head></head><body><p><strong>华尔街巨头突然“空袭”<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">英伟达</a></strong></p><p>正当英伟达一路狂飙之际，有华尔街分析师突然发出警告称，英伟达股价的涨势暗藏巨大风险，未来或将暴跌20%。投资银行DA Davidson分析师Gil Luria表示，英伟达的业绩增长趋势将会动摇，在未来18个月内，英伟达的股价将出现两位数的暴跌。就在前不久，传奇投资人、量化投资机构Research Affiliates的董事长罗伯•阿诺特也发出警告称，英伟达的股票看起来更像个泡沫。</p><p>那么，英伟达究竟有无泡沫？泡沫到底有多大？其实，回顾英伟达股价的这一轮暴力上涨，是具备业绩支撑的。华尔街看空机构主要担忧的是，英伟达的炸裂业绩能否继续保持，一旦业绩增长放缓，便是巨大风险。</p><p>短期来看，英伟达股价仍有不少利好催化。其中，英伟达宣布的“1拆10”拆股计划将于6月7日正式生效。分析人士指出，拆股应该会吸引散户投资者，尽管企业的市值实际上并没有改变。从过往的经历看，宣布拆股的公司往往确实更容易跑赢大盘。</p><blockquote><p><strong>突遭空袭</strong></p></blockquote><p>自AI热潮开始以来，英伟达的股价、业绩一路狂飙，截至最新收盘，其股价已突破1000美元，最新报1064.69美元，刷新历史新高，年内累计涨幅已达115%，最新总市值升至2.62万亿美元（约合人民币19万亿元），年内总市值累计上涨1.4万亿美元（约合人民币10万亿元）。</p><p>但华尔街分析师突然发出警告称，英伟达股价的涨势暗藏巨大风险，未来或将暴跌20%。</p><p>投资银行DA Davidson分析师Gil Luria表示，英伟达最新的业绩报告超出了华尔街的预期，第一财季的营收创下260亿美元的最高纪录，这主要是因为英伟达的顶级客户增加了对其GPU产品的支出。</p><p>但Gil Luria预测，这一趋势将会动摇，在未来18个月内，英伟达的股价将出现两位数的暴跌。</p><p>他估计，到2026年，英伟达的股价可能跌至900美元左右，这意味着，其股价将较当前水平下跌15%左右，而在更悲观的情境下，跌幅可能高达20%。</p><p>Gil Luria承认，英伟达的短期前景非常好，但长期前景可能比大多数人预期的还要糟糕。英伟达最大的客户包括Meta、Alphabet、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMZN\">亚马逊</a>等科技巨头，它们已经在研发自己的人工智能芯片或投资于其他合作伙伴。这意味着，随着时间的推移，它们对英伟达的依赖可能会减弱。</p><p>Gil Luria表示，一旦英伟达的主要客户——包括亚马逊、Alphabet、Meta和<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">特斯拉</a>，开始撤资，他将对该股给出“卖出”评级。</p><p>与此同时，传奇投资人、量化投资机构Research Affiliates的董事长罗伯•阿诺特（Rob Arnott）也曾警告称，英伟达的股票看起来更像个泡沫，公司的市销率（Price-to-sales，PS）是天文数字，之所以是天文数字，是因为他们的利润率绝对是巨大的。</p><p>Rob Arnott指出，英伟达在市场上的成功是基于它将在未来继续主导半导体行业的想法。</p><p>对冲基金巨头、杜肯资本管理公司创始人斯坦利·德鲁肯米勒（Stanley Druckenmiller ）也认为，人工智能（AI）已经过度泡沫，因此其在今年第一季度大幅减持了72%的英伟达股票。</p><blockquote><p><strong>泡沫有多大？</strong></p></blockquote><p>其实，回顾英伟达股价的这一轮暴力上涨，是具备业绩支撑的。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3dc1557f94e4443a48d852198bfb23f7\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"895\" tg-height=\"313\"/></p><p>从股价走势来看，英伟达股价飙涨始于2023年，截至最新收盘，其间累计涨幅达628.7%。</p><p>从业绩层面来看，最新财报显示，截至2024年4月28日的2025财年第一财季，英伟达实现营收达260亿美元，较去年同期增长了惊人的262%，远超分析师预期的246.5亿美元；净利润高达148.1亿美元，同比增长628%，每股净收益为5.98美元，同样超过分析师预测的每股5.59美元。</p><p>由此可见，英伟达的业绩增长势头完全匹配得上其股价的涨幅，但华尔街看空机构主要担忧的是，英伟达的炸裂业绩能否继续保持，一旦业绩增长放缓，便是巨大风险。</p><p>站在当下，仍有大部分投资巨头看多英伟达未来前景。据LiveReport大数据，截至2024年3月31日，先锋集团是英伟达的第一大机构股东，持有英伟达8.53%的股份，同时英伟达也是先锋集团的第三大重仓股，占比3.82%；<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BLK\">贝莱德</a>是英伟达的第二大机构股东，持股占比7.29%。</p><p>上述两大巨头均在第一季度增持了英伟达的股份。这意味着，这两家机构仍看好英伟达未来的增长前景。</p><blockquote><p><strong>一则利好催化</strong></p></blockquote><p>短期来看，英伟达股价仍有不少利好催化。其中，英伟达宣布的“1拆10”拆股计划将于6月7日正式生效。分析人士指出，拆股应该会吸引散户投资者，尽管企业的市值实际上并没有改变。</p><p>从过往的经历看，宣布拆股的公司往往更容易跑赢大盘。根据美银全球研究此前发布的一项分析，宣布拆股的公司股价在未来12个月内平均能上涨25.4%，而<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/161125\">标普500</a>指数的平均涨幅则仅为11.9%。</p><p>拆股的另一个利好是，英伟达将有望被纳入华尔街历史最悠久的蓝筹股指数——道琼斯指数。</p><p>由30家公司组成的道琼斯工业平均指数是一个价格加权指数，但英伟达的高股价已经成为阻碍其被纳入的一大障碍：英伟达逾1000美元的股价是道指最大权重股的2倍。</p><p>按最新收盘价计算，分拆后英伟达的每股价格将降至106美元，这一价格对于道指而言才较为适中。</p><p>B.Riley Wealth首席市场策略师Art Hogan表示，英伟达符合纳入道指成份股的所有条件：良好的声誉、持续增长的历史、投资者的兴趣以及其在大盘中的行业代表性。</p><p>其实，亚马逊在2022年拆股后，市场也曾预期，其将被纳入道指。今年早些时候，亚马逊已被正式纳入道指。</p></body></html>","source":"cszg","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>意外！英伟达，突遭\"空袭\"！</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ 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margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n意外！英伟达，突遭\"空袭\"！\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2024-05-28 07:37 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/1_VNemJN41Xxeck-tU_AbA><strong>券商中国</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>华尔街巨头突然“空袭”英伟达正当英伟达一路狂飙之际，有华尔街分析师突然发出警告称，英伟达股价的涨势暗藏巨大风险，未来或将暴跌20%。投资银行DA Davidson分析师Gil Luria表示，英伟达的业绩增长趋势将会动摇，在未来18个月内，英伟达的股价将出现两位数的暴跌。就在前不久，传奇投资人、量化投资机构Research Affiliates的董事长罗伯•阿诺特也发出警告称，英伟达的股票看起来更...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/1_VNemJN41Xxeck-tU_AbA\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bfdb3e9bb98e3bb7290e00160161c650","relate_stocks":{"NVDA":"英伟达"},"source_url":"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/1_VNemJN41Xxeck-tU_AbA","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2438436558","content_text":"华尔街巨头突然“空袭”英伟达正当英伟达一路狂飙之际，有华尔街分析师突然发出警告称，英伟达股价的涨势暗藏巨大风险，未来或将暴跌20%。投资银行DA Davidson分析师Gil Luria表示，英伟达的业绩增长趋势将会动摇，在未来18个月内，英伟达的股价将出现两位数的暴跌。就在前不久，传奇投资人、量化投资机构Research Affiliates的董事长罗伯•阿诺特也发出警告称，英伟达的股票看起来更像个泡沫。那么，英伟达究竟有无泡沫？泡沫到底有多大？其实，回顾英伟达股价的这一轮暴力上涨，是具备业绩支撑的。华尔街看空机构主要担忧的是，英伟达的炸裂业绩能否继续保持，一旦业绩增长放缓，便是巨大风险。短期来看，英伟达股价仍有不少利好催化。其中，英伟达宣布的“1拆10”拆股计划将于6月7日正式生效。分析人士指出，拆股应该会吸引散户投资者，尽管企业的市值实际上并没有改变。从过往的经历看，宣布拆股的公司往往确实更容易跑赢大盘。突遭空袭自AI热潮开始以来，英伟达的股价、业绩一路狂飙，截至最新收盘，其股价已突破1000美元，最新报1064.69美元，刷新历史新高，年内累计涨幅已达115%，最新总市值升至2.62万亿美元（约合人民币19万亿元），年内总市值累计上涨1.4万亿美元（约合人民币10万亿元）。但华尔街分析师突然发出警告称，英伟达股价的涨势暗藏巨大风险，未来或将暴跌20%。投资银行DA Davidson分析师Gil Luria表示，英伟达最新的业绩报告超出了华尔街的预期，第一财季的营收创下260亿美元的最高纪录，这主要是因为英伟达的顶级客户增加了对其GPU产品的支出。但Gil Luria预测，这一趋势将会动摇，在未来18个月内，英伟达的股价将出现两位数的暴跌。他估计，到2026年，英伟达的股价可能跌至900美元左右，这意味着，其股价将较当前水平下跌15%左右，而在更悲观的情境下，跌幅可能高达20%。Gil Luria承认，英伟达的短期前景非常好，但长期前景可能比大多数人预期的还要糟糕。英伟达最大的客户包括Meta、Alphabet、亚马逊等科技巨头，它们已经在研发自己的人工智能芯片或投资于其他合作伙伴。这意味着，随着时间的推移，它们对英伟达的依赖可能会减弱。Gil Luria表示，一旦英伟达的主要客户——包括亚马逊、Alphabet、Meta和特斯拉，开始撤资，他将对该股给出“卖出”评级。与此同时，传奇投资人、量化投资机构Research Affiliates的董事长罗伯•阿诺特（Rob Arnott）也曾警告称，英伟达的股票看起来更像个泡沫，公司的市销率（Price-to-sales，PS）是天文数字，之所以是天文数字，是因为他们的利润率绝对是巨大的。Rob Arnott指出，英伟达在市场上的成功是基于它将在未来继续主导半导体行业的想法。对冲基金巨头、杜肯资本管理公司创始人斯坦利·德鲁肯米勒（Stanley Druckenmiller ）也认为，人工智能（AI）已经过度泡沫，因此其在今年第一季度大幅减持了72%的英伟达股票。泡沫有多大？其实，回顾英伟达股价的这一轮暴力上涨，是具备业绩支撑的。从股价走势来看，英伟达股价飙涨始于2023年，截至最新收盘，其间累计涨幅达628.7%。从业绩层面来看，最新财报显示，截至2024年4月28日的2025财年第一财季，英伟达实现营收达260亿美元，较去年同期增长了惊人的262%，远超分析师预期的246.5亿美元；净利润高达148.1亿美元，同比增长628%，每股净收益为5.98美元，同样超过分析师预测的每股5.59美元。由此可见，英伟达的业绩增长势头完全匹配得上其股价的涨幅，但华尔街看空机构主要担忧的是，英伟达的炸裂业绩能否继续保持，一旦业绩增长放缓，便是巨大风险。站在当下，仍有大部分投资巨头看多英伟达未来前景。据LiveReport大数据，截至2024年3月31日，先锋集团是英伟达的第一大机构股东，持有英伟达8.53%的股份，同时英伟达也是先锋集团的第三大重仓股，占比3.82%；贝莱德是英伟达的第二大机构股东，持股占比7.29%。上述两大巨头均在第一季度增持了英伟达的股份。这意味着，这两家机构仍看好英伟达未来的增长前景。一则利好催化短期来看，英伟达股价仍有不少利好催化。其中，英伟达宣布的“1拆10”拆股计划将于6月7日正式生效。分析人士指出，拆股应该会吸引散户投资者，尽管企业的市值实际上并没有改变。从过往的经历看，宣布拆股的公司往往更容易跑赢大盘。根据美银全球研究此前发布的一项分析，宣布拆股的公司股价在未来12个月内平均能上涨25.4%，而标普500指数的平均涨幅则仅为11.9%。拆股的另一个利好是，英伟达将有望被纳入华尔街历史最悠久的蓝筹股指数——道琼斯指数。由30家公司组成的道琼斯工业平均指数是一个价格加权指数，但英伟达的高股价已经成为阻碍其被纳入的一大障碍：英伟达逾1000美元的股价是道指最大权重股的2倍。按最新收盘价计算，分拆后英伟达的每股价格将降至106美元，这一价格对于道指而言才较为适中。B.Riley Wealth首席市场策略师Art 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