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企业医生
我们是企业医生。我们是企业一生。我们创造价值产生财富。
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企业医生
2022-10-26
$纳斯达克(.IXIC)$
美国的通胀高涨的原因是可控的,其根本原因就是超发的货币在正常运转的市场里存留造成的。随着美联储的加息,不不会对市场造成打压效应。反而会让市场进入正轨慢慢的恢复过来。在超发的货币回收之后,金融市场将会随着时间慢慢的恢复到正常水平。
企业医生
2021-08-30
印度疫苗快好了。
抱歉,原内容已删除
企业医生
2021-07-14
中国期货市场违法监控客户交易信息进行对客户的财产掠夺。这是证据大家注意
企业医生
2021-05-21
冬电池🔋哈哈哈😄
马斯克:特斯拉即将在俄罗斯建立业务
企业医生
2021-04-28
好香的肉
抱歉,原内容已删除
企业医生
2021-04-26
知道为什么中国企业无法走出国门了吗。
抱歉,原内容已删除
企业医生
2021-04-21
坚持创造价值。推进社会完善社会。我们是企业医生。我们是企业一生。我们创造价值产生财富。
企业医生
2021-03-30
成为自己想要成为的人。你独一无二。我们是企业医生。我们是企业一生。我们创造价值产生财富。
企业医生
2021-03-29
价值与理念决定企业发展。我们是企业医生。我们是企业一生。我们创造价值产生财富。
企业医生
2021-03-28
企业要告别被动发展。主动地形成自我突破。我们是企业医生。我们是企业一生。我们创造价值产生财富。
企业医生
2021-03-26
创造是一种反人性的事物。而争抢才是人性。我们支持哪些创造价值的企业与创业者。你们提供的价值,将会让社会变得更加美好。我们是企业医生。我们是企业一生。我们创造价值产生财富。加入我们。创造一个新的国家。
企业医生
2021-03-14
区域性限定思维。是如何影响个人。社会。国家。走向的。我们是企业医生我们是企业一生我们创造价值产生财富
企业医生
2021-02-05
购物方式的改变。让我们如何是好。从大型集市到超市再到网上购物。那一个更加有乐趣。
企业医生
2021-02-05
随着网上购物的兴起。让实体店承受巨大压力。就在前首富从狱中出来那一刻。就是实体店的转机。也宣告了实体对于网购的宣战。加上,网购货物被烧事件。我们看看黄总如何拯救实体。
企业医生
2021-01-12
请坚信你是亿万富翁。我们是企业医生我们是企业一生我们创造价值产生财富
企业医生
2021-01-12
我们在这里,给予《国富论》作者亚当史密斯的论点,提出不一样的看法。一个国家的财富,不是取决于经济经济状况。我们是企业医生我们是企业一生我们创造价值产生财富
企业医生
2020-12-05
你有多大的理想就有多大的收入。我们是企业医生我们是企业一生我们创造价值产生财富
企业医生
2020-11-18
做蛋糕的人多了。蛋糕就便宜了。我们是企业医生我们是企业一生我们创造价值产生财富
企业医生
2020-11-12
我们可以帮助您修复企业资本。我们是企业医生我们是企业一生我们创造价值产生财富
企业医生
2020-11-07
随着中国内地的人口结构的变化。市场将会出现新的趋势发展。我们是企业医我们是企业一生我们创造价值产生财富
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18:44","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"没有这么“鸽”!读懂鲍威尔在杰克逊会议上的“太极拳”","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2163000999","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"实际上没有改变美联储货币政策正常化的态度和节奏。","content":"<p>周五晚间,在杰克逊霍尔全球央行年会上,鲍威尔的“鸽”派讲话打消市场提前宣告Taper甚至仓促加息的担忧,会后美股上涨,美元下探,美债利率走低。</p>\n<p>市场或许对鲍威尔的通胀暂时论印象更为深刻了,但我们认为这实际上没有改变美联储货币政策正常化的态度和节奏。</p>\n<p><b>关于经济:幅度最深VS持续最短的衰退</b></p>\n<p>在两个月的时间里,约3000万工人失去工作。去年二季度产出的降幅是2007年至2009年的大衰退期间全部降幅的两倍之多。<b><u>但随后经济复苏的速度超过了预期</u></b>,产出仅在四个季度后就超过了之前的峰值,还不到上一次大衰退后所需时间的一半。</p>\n<p>失业仍然不成比例地落在服务业部门的低工资工人身上。时至今日服务支出仍然比趋势水平低7%左右。当前总就业人数比疫情前低600万,其中500万是在低迷的服务部门所致。</p>\n<p><b><u>重点:经济和就业的重点矛盾,依然在服务业。</u></b></p>\n<h2><b> 关于就业:就业改观VS失业过高</b></h2>\n<p>最近几个月,劳动力市场的前景已经大为改观。过去三个月平均新增就业83.2万人,近80万人是服务业就业。职位空缺和辞职的水平处于历史高位。<b><u>失业率已经下降到5.4%,是疫情以来的低点,但仍然过高。劳动力参与率的恢复远远落后于其他部分。</u></b></p>\n<p><b><u>重点:劳动力市场复苏令人满意,但整体失业率和劳动参与率还未达标。</u></b></p>\n<h2><b> 关于通胀:远远高于VS临时性</b></h2>\n<p>截止至今年7月,滚动12个月的PCE以及核心PCE通胀率为4.2%和3.6%,<b><u>远远高于我们2%的长期通胀目标。企业和消费者普遍反映价格和工资有上升的压力。</u></b>高通胀的担忧会被其他因素所缓和,这些因素表明,持续高企的通胀<b><u>可能会被证明是临时性的</u></b>。</p>\n<p>对于通胀可能是临时性的,鲍威尔从五个方面提出了论证。</p>\n<p>1、缺乏广泛的通货膨胀压力:<b><u>通货膨胀的飙升主要来自几类相对狭窄的商品和服务。</u></b>其影响应该会随着时间的推移而消失。对于特定项目的价格上涨是否会外溢转化为广泛的通货膨胀。<b><u>我们会对通胀压力在经济中更广泛地蔓延的迹象感到担忧。</u></b></p>\n<p>2、高通胀项目有所缓和:二手车价格似乎已经稳定下来;汽车以外的耐用消费品的通货膨胀现在已经放缓,并可能开始下降。</p>\n<p>3、工资涨幅与长期通胀目标一致:工资增长的幅度持续地超过生产力增长和通胀水平,会导致“工资价格螺旋式通胀”。但目前工资上涨的速度与长期通胀目标一致。</p>\n<p>4、长期通胀预期处于2%的目标水平。长期通胀预期的变化远远小于实际通胀或短期的预期,表明高通胀可能被证明是临时性的。</p>\n<p>5、全球缓解通胀的力量。发达经济体长期低通货膨胀的模式可能反映了持续的缓解通货膨胀的力量,包括技术进步、全球化、人口因素,以及央行对维持价格稳定的有力而成功的保证。没有什么理由认为它们已经突然逆转或减弱。</p>\n<p><b><u>重点:对于通胀的看法大概是本次鲍威尔讲话最“鸽”的地方。</u></b>4月份鲍威尔曾表示,“我们不会允许通胀大幅超过2%,也不会允许通胀长时间超过2%。”可见当时通胀的幅度和时长都是美联储的观察点。而随着美国通胀水平的一再爆表,<b><u>一方面承认通胀远高于目标,一方面又继续强调通胀可能会被证明是临时性的,显示在矛盾的双目标制中货币政策做出的妥协。</u></b></p>\n<h2><b>关于对货币政策的影响:不为暂时的因素而收紧VS今年Taper可能是合适的</b></h2>\n<p>在最后对货币政策的影响中,鲍威尔指出妥协的原因,<b><u>是由于货币政策对通胀的主要影响可能会在滞后一年或更长时间出现,</u></b>如果应对暂时的因素而收紧政策,很可能在不适宜的时候反而延缓经济活动并增加通缩压力。</p>\n<p>除此外鲍威尔还提到两个变量:我们还期望看到持续强劲的就业增长。以及了解更多有关于Delta变种的影响。</p>\n<p>而对于货币政策的结论则是:就目前而言,货币政策已经起到好处;我们准备酌情调整政策以实现我们的目标。在通货膨胀方面,“实质性的进一步进展”的测试已经通过。在实现充分就业方面也取得了明显进展。<b><u>在FOMC最近的7月会议上,我和大多数与会者一样认为,如果经济的发展大致如预期,今年开始减少资产购买的步伐可能是合适的。</u></b></p>\n<p><b><u>在表达“今年Taper合适”之后还有两个观点的表述,我们认为不应过度解读为鸽派,</u></b>一个是“即使在资产购买结束后,我们所持有的长期证券将继续支持宽松的金融条件。”该话的意思是Taper后联储会维持资产负债表规模。但<b><u>从顺序上来说,缩表本身就应该是在加息进程开启后的才考虑的事。</u></b></p>\n<p>另外“未来减少资产购买的时间和速度将无关于传达加息时间节点的信号。”<b><u>这与7月的议息会议话锋一致,Taper和加息没有必然衔接关系,加息要满足的条件不同且更为严格。</u></b></p>\n<p><b><u>重点:通篇来看鲍威尔在通胀问题上的“鸽派”更倾向于其对于当前通胀远高于目标,但政策却迟于行动这种妥协的辩解。Taper在年内落地基本无疑。</u></b></p>\n<p>与此同时还有一点,10月左右Taper官宣和债务上调TGA账户由泄洪转回笼窗口叠加,虽然从当前来看流动性应当还是比较充分,但双政策对预期以及对市场的影响不可忽视。</p>","source":"wallstreetcn_api","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE 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}\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n没有这么“鸽”!读懂鲍威尔在杰克逊会议上的“太极拳”\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-08-30 18:44 北京时间 <a href=https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3639202><strong>华尔街见闻</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>周五晚间,在杰克逊霍尔全球央行年会上,鲍威尔的“鸽”派讲话打消市场提前宣告Taper甚至仓促加息的担忧,会后美股上涨,美元下探,美债利率走低。\n市场或许对鲍威尔的通胀暂时论印象更为深刻了,但我们认为这实际上没有改变美联储货币政策正常化的态度和节奏。\n关于经济:幅度最深VS持续最短的衰退\n在两个月的时间里,约3000万工人失去工作。去年二季度产出的降幅是2007年至2009年的大衰退期间全部降幅的...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3639202\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/909f0c076f3fff78497a5c9be00e5429","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3639202","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2163000999","content_text":"周五晚间,在杰克逊霍尔全球央行年会上,鲍威尔的“鸽”派讲话打消市场提前宣告Taper甚至仓促加息的担忧,会后美股上涨,美元下探,美债利率走低。\n市场或许对鲍威尔的通胀暂时论印象更为深刻了,但我们认为这实际上没有改变美联储货币政策正常化的态度和节奏。\n关于经济:幅度最深VS持续最短的衰退\n在两个月的时间里,约3000万工人失去工作。去年二季度产出的降幅是2007年至2009年的大衰退期间全部降幅的两倍之多。但随后经济复苏的速度超过了预期,产出仅在四个季度后就超过了之前的峰值,还不到上一次大衰退后所需时间的一半。\n失业仍然不成比例地落在服务业部门的低工资工人身上。时至今日服务支出仍然比趋势水平低7%左右。当前总就业人数比疫情前低600万,其中500万是在低迷的服务部门所致。\n重点:经济和就业的重点矛盾,依然在服务业。\n 关于就业:就业改观VS失业过高\n最近几个月,劳动力市场的前景已经大为改观。过去三个月平均新增就业83.2万人,近80万人是服务业就业。职位空缺和辞职的水平处于历史高位。失业率已经下降到5.4%,是疫情以来的低点,但仍然过高。劳动力参与率的恢复远远落后于其他部分。\n重点:劳动力市场复苏令人满意,但整体失业率和劳动参与率还未达标。\n 关于通胀:远远高于VS临时性\n截止至今年7月,滚动12个月的PCE以及核心PCE通胀率为4.2%和3.6%,远远高于我们2%的长期通胀目标。企业和消费者普遍反映价格和工资有上升的压力。高通胀的担忧会被其他因素所缓和,这些因素表明,持续高企的通胀可能会被证明是临时性的。\n对于通胀可能是临时性的,鲍威尔从五个方面提出了论证。\n1、缺乏广泛的通货膨胀压力:通货膨胀的飙升主要来自几类相对狭窄的商品和服务。其影响应该会随着时间的推移而消失。对于特定项目的价格上涨是否会外溢转化为广泛的通货膨胀。我们会对通胀压力在经济中更广泛地蔓延的迹象感到担忧。\n2、高通胀项目有所缓和:二手车价格似乎已经稳定下来;汽车以外的耐用消费品的通货膨胀现在已经放缓,并可能开始下降。\n3、工资涨幅与长期通胀目标一致:工资增长的幅度持续地超过生产力增长和通胀水平,会导致“工资价格螺旋式通胀”。但目前工资上涨的速度与长期通胀目标一致。\n4、长期通胀预期处于2%的目标水平。长期通胀预期的变化远远小于实际通胀或短期的预期,表明高通胀可能被证明是临时性的。\n5、全球缓解通胀的力量。发达经济体长期低通货膨胀的模式可能反映了持续的缓解通货膨胀的力量,包括技术进步、全球化、人口因素,以及央行对维持价格稳定的有力而成功的保证。没有什么理由认为它们已经突然逆转或减弱。\n重点:对于通胀的看法大概是本次鲍威尔讲话最“鸽”的地方。4月份鲍威尔曾表示,“我们不会允许通胀大幅超过2%,也不会允许通胀长时间超过2%。”可见当时通胀的幅度和时长都是美联储的观察点。而随着美国通胀水平的一再爆表,一方面承认通胀远高于目标,一方面又继续强调通胀可能会被证明是临时性的,显示在矛盾的双目标制中货币政策做出的妥协。\n关于对货币政策的影响:不为暂时的因素而收紧VS今年Taper可能是合适的\n在最后对货币政策的影响中,鲍威尔指出妥协的原因,是由于货币政策对通胀的主要影响可能会在滞后一年或更长时间出现,如果应对暂时的因素而收紧政策,很可能在不适宜的时候反而延缓经济活动并增加通缩压力。\n除此外鲍威尔还提到两个变量:我们还期望看到持续强劲的就业增长。以及了解更多有关于Delta变种的影响。\n而对于货币政策的结论则是:就目前而言,货币政策已经起到好处;我们准备酌情调整政策以实现我们的目标。在通货膨胀方面,“实质性的进一步进展”的测试已经通过。在实现充分就业方面也取得了明显进展。在FOMC最近的7月会议上,我和大多数与会者一样认为,如果经济的发展大致如预期,今年开始减少资产购买的步伐可能是合适的。\n在表达“今年Taper合适”之后还有两个观点的表述,我们认为不应过度解读为鸽派,一个是“即使在资产购买结束后,我们所持有的长期证券将继续支持宽松的金融条件。”该话的意思是Taper后联储会维持资产负债表规模。但从顺序上来说,缩表本身就应该是在加息进程开启后的才考虑的事。\n另外“未来减少资产购买的时间和速度将无关于传达加息时间节点的信号。”这与7月的议息会议话锋一致,Taper和加息没有必然衔接关系,加息要满足的条件不同且更为严格。\n重点:通篇来看鲍威尔在通胀问题上的“鸽派”更倾向于其对于当前通胀远高于目标,但政策却迟于行动这种妥协的辩解。Taper在年内落地基本无疑。\n与此同时还有一点,10月左右Taper官宣和债务上调TGA账户由泄洪转回笼窗口叠加,虽然从当前来看流动性应当还是比较充分,但双政策对预期以及对市场的影响不可忽视。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1538,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":944055111,"gmtCreate":1596722615833,"gmtModify":1704213339786,"author":{"id":"3554940206157537","authorId":"3554940206157537","name":"企业医生","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/513a78ef1825124f258317ec2711ee7b","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3554940206157537","idStr":"3554940206157537"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"小心黑天鹅。区块链。","listText":"小心黑天鹅。区块链。","text":"小心黑天鹅。区块链。","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/944055111","repostId":"1149602530","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1149602530","pubTimestamp":1596699111,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1149602530?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2020-08-06 15:31","market":"sh","language":"zh","title":"黄金还能上车吗?一些风险信号","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1149602530","media":" 陈李lichen","summary":"摘要\n\n\n事件\n\n\n我们认为,三季度内黄金价格将延续上涨走势,预计有10%左右空间,但应该开始警惕进入四季度后的下行风险。\n\n\n观点\n\n\n- 金价还有一定空间:与2009年-2011年美联储扩表期间的","content":"<blockquote>\n <b>摘要</b>\n</blockquote>\n<blockquote>\n <b>事件</b>\n</blockquote>\n<blockquote>\n <b>我们认为,三季度内黄金价格将延续上涨走势,预计有10%左右空间,但应该开始警惕进入四季度后的下行风险。</b>\n</blockquote>\n<blockquote>\n <b>观点</b>\n</blockquote>\n<blockquote>\n <b>- 金价还有一定空间:</b>与2009年-2011年美联储扩表期间的单边上涨相比,金价的上涨尚未达到当年翻倍的水平。从滚动3个月和一年的涨幅来看,并未超过2006-2011年期间出现的滚动涨幅峰值水平。\n</blockquote>\n<blockquote>\n <b>- 9月继续上涨的动力:</b>\n</blockquote>\n<blockquote>\n <b>1. 全球负利率债券规模上升速度加快,持有黄金的机会成本降低</b>\n</blockquote>\n<blockquote>\n 在全球负利率债券规模于7月达到15.5万亿美元、且3月以来快速上升的情况下,持有黄金的机会成本在快速走低。\n <b>黄金价格与负利率债券规模走势呈现出明显的正相关性。</b>在三季度全球经济尚未从疫情中恢复、且负利率难以戒除的环境下,稳定性资产的稀缺将继续为黄金增添吸引力。\n</blockquote>\n<blockquote>\n <b>2. 大选不确定性与季节性因素推升黄金价格</b>\n</blockquote>\n<blockquote>\n <b>黄金价格在选举年的9-10月期间平均表现最好。</b>由于总统辩论于9月举行,往往会对市场情绪造成较大影响,推升黄金价格。9月前财政刺激大幅退出的概率也较小。此外,由于黄金需求最大的经济体印度的婚庆季节到来,黄金的消费需求在经历一二季度的低迷后,有望于9月开始恢复。\n</blockquote>\n<blockquote>\n <b>- 进入10月后警惕金价快速下行的风险</b>\n</blockquote>\n<blockquote>\n <b>1. 债券信用利差已经下降</b>\n</blockquote>\n<blockquote>\n 美联储承诺为市场保持充裕的流动性,\n <b>高收益债券信用利差持续走低,表明市场对风险和不确定性的担忧有所明显减弱。</b>随着全球经济逐步回到正轨,资金流入高收益资产,将弱化安全资产的回报率。\n</blockquote>\n<blockquote>\n <b>2. 黄金ETF的流入量已创新高</b>\n</blockquote>\n<blockquote>\n 2020年截至7月24日,全球黄金ETF净流入865吨(约470亿美元),远远高于2009年646吨和2016年230亿美元的高峰水平。今年一二季度,全球对黄金的投资需求也大幅超过了饰品需求,从历史来看,2010年以来这一趋势从未维持超过一个季度。在近期市场避险情绪没有明显上升的情况下,需要警惕接下来增量资金减弱、甚至流出的风险。\n</blockquote>\n<blockquote>\n <b>3. 过去负利率债券规模与黄金期货持仓上升期间黄金涨幅最高为30%</b>\n</blockquote>\n<blockquote>\n 虽然全球负利率规模再次上升,黄金期货持仓也处在较高位置,为黄金提供一定上涨动力,但回顾2018-2019年负利率债券规模走高和2015-2016年期货持仓高峰期间,黄金的最大上涨幅度均为30%左右。\n</blockquote>\n<blockquote>\n <b>4. 历次疫情后,黄金涨幅最高为34%</b>\n</blockquote>\n<blockquote>\n SARS疫情爆发后一年内最高涨幅为28%,H1N1爆发后一年内最高涨幅为34%,Zika爆发后一年内最高涨幅为25%。其中H1N1爆发期间的黄金涨幅也受到美国QE的较大影响。本次在大选、疫情和美联储扩表的影响下,\n <b>我们判断黄金还有约10%的上行空间,全年上涨幅度在45%以内。</b>\n</blockquote>\n<blockquote>\n <b>- 黄金股的走势特征,更像黄金,还是更像股票?</b>\n</blockquote>\n<blockquote>\n 东吴金工通过对2004-2019年Wind黄金指数的走势分析,得出结论,伦敦金现的月度涨跌对黄金指数涨跌的解释度为 0.20;股市的月度涨跌,对黄金指数涨跌的解释度为 0.39。\n <b>总的来说,黄金股的股票属性超过黄金。</b>\n</blockquote>\n<p></p>\n<p>2020年以来,黄金已经上涨超过34%。伦敦现货黄金在耗费月4个月从1500美元/盎司上升到1800美元/盎司后,最近的几个星期上涨明显加速,突破2000美元/盎司。我们认为,三季度内黄金价格将延续上涨走势,预计有10%左右空间,但应该开始警惕进入四季度后的下行风险。</p>\n<p>我们将从两个方面讨论黄金的价格是否已经过贵。首先,目前的价格相比历史水平是否合理,其次,支撑黄金上涨的驱动因素是否依然存在。</p>\n<p><b>01</b></p>\n<p><b>金价还有一定空间</b></p>\n<p>首先,与2009年-2011年美联储扩表期间的单边上涨相比,金价的上涨尚未达到当年翻倍的水平。而本次扩表的幅度和节奏相比2009年都更为激进,短期内加剧美元贬值压力,推动黄金价格快速上行,在流动性大幅扩张的初期,可以认为是较为正常的趋势。<b>同时,虽然黄金价格于近期创下1980年以来的新高,但是从调整通胀后的价格来看,截至8月5日,依然低于2011年时期水平。</b>因此我们认为目前黄金还不存在超涨的情况。从滚动3个月和一年的涨幅来看,截至8月5日分别为20%和39%,并未超过2006-2011年期间出现的滚动涨幅峰值水平,但近期以来上升速度明显加快,需要更为谨慎。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/41076bff17899460f21f4d5b0113ea49\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"802\"></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/672f04525e776b90a32e0cfa4909c305\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"712\"></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a85400ba1b6f6d0a489d4eeba6255143\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"727\"></p>\n<p>黄金价格与黄金衍生品市场多头净持仓趋势相关性较强,可以认为是投资者的情绪信号。2020年以来,黄金期货和期权净持仓多头规模在历史较高水平波动。<b>总体来看,黄金价格目前仍然处于合理区间。</b></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7217aef5b6c6020bab27dd5e20c65131\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"633\"></p>\n<p><b>02</b></p>\n<p><b>9月继续上涨的动力</b></p>\n<p>我们认为在三季度为黄金提供后续10%上涨动力的重要驱动因素包括:</p>\n<p>2.1.全球负利率债券规模上升速度加快,持有黄金的机会成本降低</p>\n<p>中短期黄金价格的主要推动力之一是持有黄金的机会成本。在全球负利率债券规模于7月达到15.5万亿美元、且3月以来快速上升的情况下,持有黄金的机会成本在快速走低。可以看出<b>,黄金价格与负利率债券规模走势呈现出明显的正相关性,且与10年期美债收益率呈现出负相关性。</b>在三季度全球经济尚未从疫情中恢复、且负利率难以戒除的环境下,稳定性资产的稀缺将继续为黄金增添吸引力。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/18fe2080f0f55ace3a9abe4b066a3a0d\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"599\"></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9ab94d4f3ce9787b0c5a8bb0fad93f1b\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"637\"></p>\n<p>2.2. 大选不确定性与季节性因素推升黄金价格</p>\n<p>对1970年以来大选投票前后的黄金价格分析显示,<b>黄金价格在选举年的9-10月期间平均表现最好,在12-1月期间表现最差。</b>尽管这一规律只能作为参考,因为干扰黄金价格的外部因素非常之多,但由于总统辩论于9月举行,造成政治不确定性上升,往往会对市场情绪造成较大影响,推升黄金价格。同时,两党为博得选民支持,9月前财政刺激大幅退出的概率也较小,预计美元将会进一步走弱,为黄金带来上升动力。此外,由于黄金需求最大的经济体印度的婚庆季节到来,黄金的消费需求在经历一二季度的低迷后,有望于9月开始恢复,从历史经验来看,三四季度也通常为全球黄金需求的旺季。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b1e06370540ae84f7315bbfc44d095d1\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"435\"></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1afa33a46995b3ac2e2570059b2f6f4d\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"582\"></p>\n<p><b>03</b></p>\n<p><b>进入10月后警惕金价快速下行的风险</b></p>\n<p>我们认为需要警惕进入10月后黄金价格出现快速下行的风险。目前来看,有几点不利因素:</p>\n<p>3.1. 债券信用利差已经下降</p>\n<p><b>美联储承诺为市场保持充裕的流动性,高收益债券信用利差持续走低,表明市场对风险和不确定性的担忧有所明显减弱。</b>随着全球经济逐步回到正轨,资金流入高收益资产,将弱化安全资产的回报率。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8c8ac9184cbb7592b3e0ad48a1086489\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"632\"></p>\n<p>3.2. 黄金ETF的流入量已创新高</p>\n<p>2020年上半年全球黄金ETF净流入达到734吨(约395亿美元),截至7月24日,净流入864吨(约470亿美元),远远高于2009年646吨和2016年230亿美元的高峰水平。今年一二季度,全球对黄金的投资需求也大幅超过了饰品需求,从历史来看,2010年以来这一趋势从未维持超过一个季度。<b>在近期市场避险情绪没有明显上升的情况下,需要警惕接下来增量资金减弱、甚至流出的风险。</b></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/631d367fa8e4d340bb3b6ac6b677037a\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"416\"></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/141cea3ac28650d68943c5190b998ea3\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"708\"></p>\n<p>3.3. 过去负利率债券规模与黄金期货持仓上升期间,黄金涨幅最高为30%</p>\n<p>虽然全球负利率规模再次上升,黄金期货持仓也处在较高位置,为黄金提供一定上涨动力,但回顾2018-2019年负利率债券规模走高和2015-2016年期货持仓高峰期间,黄金的最大上涨幅度均为30%左右。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c026cd835008c50437adebda2ed42ce3\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"436\"></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/685e5f4110cd11fa18a99d662b25d86f\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"462\"></p>\n<p>3.4. 历次疫情后,黄金涨幅最高为34%</p>\n<p>根据Bloomberg Story Count,我们统计了2003年SARS、2009年H1N1以及2016年Zika疫情爆发后一年内黄金的表现。其中,SARS疫情爆发后一年内最高涨幅为28%,H1N1爆发后一年内最高涨幅为34%,Zika爆发后一年内最高涨幅为25%。其中H1N1爆发期间的黄金涨幅也受到美国QE的较大影响。<b>本次在大选、疫情和美联储扩表的影响下,我们判断黄金还有约10%的上行空间,全年上涨幅度在45%以内。</b></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/64bef9bc02d3045940425ebf6c77c75b\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"467\"></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cadeccedf5bd6eaec32ed76456336b21\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"668\"></p>\n<p><b>04</b></p>\n<p><b>黄金股的走势特征,更像黄金,还是更像股票?</b></p>\n<p>东吴金工通过对2004-2019年Wind黄金指数(882415.WI)的走势分析,得出结论,伦敦金现的月度涨跌对黄金指数涨跌的解释度为 0.20;股市(上证综指)的月度涨跌,对黄金指数涨跌的解释度为 0.39。总的来说,黄金股的股票属性超过黄金。如果将金价与股市两个因素综合在一起,则可以解释黄金指数约 52%的涨跌行为(详情参考报告《黄金股,哪一只成色更足》)。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/aadfa48a7133c9b593a8d6e420ebb39f\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"665\"></p>\n<p><b>风险提示</b></p>\n<p>美国财政刺激计划出现变化,未能如期扩张资产负债表。</p>\n<p>受疫情影响,黄金消费需求大幅下行。</p>","source":"lsy1596698698973","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title> 黄金还能上车吗?一些风险信号</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ 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}\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n 黄金还能上车吗?一些风险信号\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2020-08-06 15:31 北京时间 <a href=https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/-lzDuc1XCKbmOPZD2UteJg><strong> 陈李lichen</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>摘要\n\n\n事件\n\n\n我们认为,三季度内黄金价格将延续上涨走势,预计有10%左右空间,但应该开始警惕进入四季度后的下行风险。\n\n\n观点\n\n\n- 金价还有一定空间:与2009年-2011年美联储扩表期间的单边上涨相比,金价的上涨尚未达到当年翻倍的水平。从滚动3个月和一年的涨幅来看,并未超过2006-2011年期间出现的滚动涨幅峰值水平。\n\n\n- 9月继续上涨的动力:\n\n\n1. 全球负利率债券规模上升...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/-lzDuc1XCKbmOPZD2UteJg\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ba4eb4ccd5dd785ad0af3214df6a3a9e","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/-lzDuc1XCKbmOPZD2UteJg","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1149602530","content_text":"摘要\n\n\n事件\n\n\n我们认为,三季度内黄金价格将延续上涨走势,预计有10%左右空间,但应该开始警惕进入四季度后的下行风险。\n\n\n观点\n\n\n- 金价还有一定空间:与2009年-2011年美联储扩表期间的单边上涨相比,金价的上涨尚未达到当年翻倍的水平。从滚动3个月和一年的涨幅来看,并未超过2006-2011年期间出现的滚动涨幅峰值水平。\n\n\n- 9月继续上涨的动力:\n\n\n1. 全球负利率债券规模上升速度加快,持有黄金的机会成本降低\n\n\n 在全球负利率债券规模于7月达到15.5万亿美元、且3月以来快速上升的情况下,持有黄金的机会成本在快速走低。\n 黄金价格与负利率债券规模走势呈现出明显的正相关性。在三季度全球经济尚未从疫情中恢复、且负利率难以戒除的环境下,稳定性资产的稀缺将继续为黄金增添吸引力。\n\n\n2. 大选不确定性与季节性因素推升黄金价格\n\n\n黄金价格在选举年的9-10月期间平均表现最好。由于总统辩论于9月举行,往往会对市场情绪造成较大影响,推升黄金价格。9月前财政刺激大幅退出的概率也较小。此外,由于黄金需求最大的经济体印度的婚庆季节到来,黄金的消费需求在经历一二季度的低迷后,有望于9月开始恢复。\n\n\n- 进入10月后警惕金价快速下行的风险\n\n\n1. 债券信用利差已经下降\n\n\n 美联储承诺为市场保持充裕的流动性,\n 高收益债券信用利差持续走低,表明市场对风险和不确定性的担忧有所明显减弱。随着全球经济逐步回到正轨,资金流入高收益资产,将弱化安全资产的回报率。\n\n\n2. 黄金ETF的流入量已创新高\n\n\n 2020年截至7月24日,全球黄金ETF净流入865吨(约470亿美元),远远高于2009年646吨和2016年230亿美元的高峰水平。今年一二季度,全球对黄金的投资需求也大幅超过了饰品需求,从历史来看,2010年以来这一趋势从未维持超过一个季度。在近期市场避险情绪没有明显上升的情况下,需要警惕接下来增量资金减弱、甚至流出的风险。\n\n\n3. 过去负利率债券规模与黄金期货持仓上升期间黄金涨幅最高为30%\n\n\n 虽然全球负利率规模再次上升,黄金期货持仓也处在较高位置,为黄金提供一定上涨动力,但回顾2018-2019年负利率债券规模走高和2015-2016年期货持仓高峰期间,黄金的最大上涨幅度均为30%左右。\n\n\n4. 历次疫情后,黄金涨幅最高为34%\n\n\n SARS疫情爆发后一年内最高涨幅为28%,H1N1爆发后一年内最高涨幅为34%,Zika爆发后一年内最高涨幅为25%。其中H1N1爆发期间的黄金涨幅也受到美国QE的较大影响。本次在大选、疫情和美联储扩表的影响下,\n 我们判断黄金还有约10%的上行空间,全年上涨幅度在45%以内。\n\n\n- 黄金股的走势特征,更像黄金,还是更像股票?\n\n\n 东吴金工通过对2004-2019年Wind黄金指数的走势分析,得出结论,伦敦金现的月度涨跌对黄金指数涨跌的解释度为 0.20;股市的月度涨跌,对黄金指数涨跌的解释度为 0.39。\n 总的来说,黄金股的股票属性超过黄金。\n\n\n2020年以来,黄金已经上涨超过34%。伦敦现货黄金在耗费月4个月从1500美元/盎司上升到1800美元/盎司后,最近的几个星期上涨明显加速,突破2000美元/盎司。我们认为,三季度内黄金价格将延续上涨走势,预计有10%左右空间,但应该开始警惕进入四季度后的下行风险。\n我们将从两个方面讨论黄金的价格是否已经过贵。首先,目前的价格相比历史水平是否合理,其次,支撑黄金上涨的驱动因素是否依然存在。\n01\n金价还有一定空间\n首先,与2009年-2011年美联储扩表期间的单边上涨相比,金价的上涨尚未达到当年翻倍的水平。而本次扩表的幅度和节奏相比2009年都更为激进,短期内加剧美元贬值压力,推动黄金价格快速上行,在流动性大幅扩张的初期,可以认为是较为正常的趋势。同时,虽然黄金价格于近期创下1980年以来的新高,但是从调整通胀后的价格来看,截至8月5日,依然低于2011年时期水平。因此我们认为目前黄金还不存在超涨的情况。从滚动3个月和一年的涨幅来看,截至8月5日分别为20%和39%,并未超过2006-2011年期间出现的滚动涨幅峰值水平,但近期以来上升速度明显加快,需要更为谨慎。\n\n\n\n黄金价格与黄金衍生品市场多头净持仓趋势相关性较强,可以认为是投资者的情绪信号。2020年以来,黄金期货和期权净持仓多头规模在历史较高水平波动。总体来看,黄金价格目前仍然处于合理区间。\n\n02\n9月继续上涨的动力\n我们认为在三季度为黄金提供后续10%上涨动力的重要驱动因素包括:\n2.1.全球负利率债券规模上升速度加快,持有黄金的机会成本降低\n中短期黄金价格的主要推动力之一是持有黄金的机会成本。在全球负利率债券规模于7月达到15.5万亿美元、且3月以来快速上升的情况下,持有黄金的机会成本在快速走低。可以看出,黄金价格与负利率债券规模走势呈现出明显的正相关性,且与10年期美债收益率呈现出负相关性。在三季度全球经济尚未从疫情中恢复、且负利率难以戒除的环境下,稳定性资产的稀缺将继续为黄金增添吸引力。\n\n\n2.2. 大选不确定性与季节性因素推升黄金价格\n对1970年以来大选投票前后的黄金价格分析显示,黄金价格在选举年的9-10月期间平均表现最好,在12-1月期间表现最差。尽管这一规律只能作为参考,因为干扰黄金价格的外部因素非常之多,但由于总统辩论于9月举行,造成政治不确定性上升,往往会对市场情绪造成较大影响,推升黄金价格。同时,两党为博得选民支持,9月前财政刺激大幅退出的概率也较小,预计美元将会进一步走弱,为黄金带来上升动力。此外,由于黄金需求最大的经济体印度的婚庆季节到来,黄金的消费需求在经历一二季度的低迷后,有望于9月开始恢复,从历史经验来看,三四季度也通常为全球黄金需求的旺季。\n\n\n03\n进入10月后警惕金价快速下行的风险\n我们认为需要警惕进入10月后黄金价格出现快速下行的风险。目前来看,有几点不利因素:\n3.1. 债券信用利差已经下降\n美联储承诺为市场保持充裕的流动性,高收益债券信用利差持续走低,表明市场对风险和不确定性的担忧有所明显减弱。随着全球经济逐步回到正轨,资金流入高收益资产,将弱化安全资产的回报率。\n\n3.2. 黄金ETF的流入量已创新高\n2020年上半年全球黄金ETF净流入达到734吨(约395亿美元),截至7月24日,净流入864吨(约470亿美元),远远高于2009年646吨和2016年230亿美元的高峰水平。今年一二季度,全球对黄金的投资需求也大幅超过了饰品需求,从历史来看,2010年以来这一趋势从未维持超过一个季度。在近期市场避险情绪没有明显上升的情况下,需要警惕接下来增量资金减弱、甚至流出的风险。\n\n\n3.3. 过去负利率债券规模与黄金期货持仓上升期间,黄金涨幅最高为30%\n虽然全球负利率规模再次上升,黄金期货持仓也处在较高位置,为黄金提供一定上涨动力,但回顾2018-2019年负利率债券规模走高和2015-2016年期货持仓高峰期间,黄金的最大上涨幅度均为30%左右。\n\n\n3.4. 历次疫情后,黄金涨幅最高为34%\n根据Bloomberg Story Count,我们统计了2003年SARS、2009年H1N1以及2016年Zika疫情爆发后一年内黄金的表现。其中,SARS疫情爆发后一年内最高涨幅为28%,H1N1爆发后一年内最高涨幅为34%,Zika爆发后一年内最高涨幅为25%。其中H1N1爆发期间的黄金涨幅也受到美国QE的较大影响。本次在大选、疫情和美联储扩表的影响下,我们判断黄金还有约10%的上行空间,全年上涨幅度在45%以内。\n\n\n04\n黄金股的走势特征,更像黄金,还是更像股票?\n东吴金工通过对2004-2019年Wind黄金指数(882415.WI)的走势分析,得出结论,伦敦金现的月度涨跌对黄金指数涨跌的解释度为 0.20;股市(上证综指)的月度涨跌,对黄金指数涨跌的解释度为 0.39。总的来说,黄金股的股票属性超过黄金。如果将金价与股市两个因素综合在一起,则可以解释黄金指数约 52%的涨跌行为(详情参考报告《黄金股,哪一只成色更足》)。\n\n风险提示\n美国财政刺激计划出现变化,未能如期扩张资产负债表。\n受疫情影响,黄金消费需求大幅下行。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":346,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3527667803686145","authorId":"3527667803686145","name":"社区成长助手","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2b7c7106b5c0c8b0037faa67439d898f","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"3527667803686145","idStr":"3527667803686145"},"content":"终于等到了您的初发帖[比心][比心]发帖时关联相关股票或者相关话题,可以获得更多曝光哦~如果您想创作优质文章,请查看老虎社区创作指引","text":"终于等到了您的初发帖[比心][比心]发帖时关联相关股票或者相关话题,可以获得更多曝光哦~如果您想创作优质文章,请查看老虎社区创作指引","html":"终于等到了您的初发帖[比心][比心]发帖时关联相关股票或者相关话题,可以获得更多曝光哦~如果您想创作优质文章,请查看老虎社区创作指引"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":139930967,"gmtCreate":1621582583559,"gmtModify":1621582583559,"author":{"id":"3554940206157537","authorId":"3554940206157537","name":"企业医生","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/513a78ef1825124f258317ec2711ee7b","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3554940206157537","idStr":"3554940206157537"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"冬电池🔋哈哈哈😄","listText":"冬电池🔋哈哈哈😄","text":"冬电池🔋哈哈哈😄","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/139930967","repostId":"1156067006","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1156067006","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据,旨在帮助投资者理解世界,做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1621582312,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1156067006?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-05-21 15:31","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"马斯克:特斯拉即将在俄罗斯建立业务","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1156067006","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"$特斯拉(TSLA)$CEO埃隆·马斯克:特斯拉即将在俄罗斯建立业务。\n\n同时,马斯克还表示:毫无疑问,未来汽车将实现自动驾驶,除火箭外,未来所有的交通工具都将是电动的。","content":"<p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">特斯拉</a>CEO埃隆·马斯克:特斯拉即将在俄罗斯建立业务。</p><p>同时,马斯克还表示:毫无疑问,未来汽车将实现自动驾驶,除火箭外,未来所有的交通工具都将是电动的。</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>马斯克:特斯拉即将在俄罗斯建立业务</title>\n<style 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href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">特斯拉</a>CEO埃隆·马斯克:特斯拉即将在俄罗斯建立业务。</p><p>同时,马斯克还表示:毫无疑问,未来汽车将实现自动驾驶,除火箭外,未来所有的交通工具都将是电动的。</p>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8350896f4f33c86bc28f200b67ab82b4","relate_stocks":{"TSLA":"特斯拉"},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1156067006","content_text":"特斯拉CEO埃隆·马斯克:特斯拉即将在俄罗斯建立业务。同时,马斯克还表示:毫无疑问,未来汽车将实现自动驾驶,除火箭外,未来所有的交通工具都将是电动的。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1347,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":100383933,"gmtCreate":1619580728722,"gmtModify":1619580728722,"author":{"id":"3554940206157537","authorId":"3554940206157537","name":"企业医生","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/513a78ef1825124f258317ec2711ee7b","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3554940206157537","idStr":"3554940206157537"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"好香的肉","listText":"好香的肉","text":"好香的肉","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/100383933","repostId":"1105098623","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1105098623","pubTimestamp":1619580122,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1105098623?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-04-28 11:22","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"沃尔玛或向物美出售约130家门店,初步定价30亿美元","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1105098623","media":"界面","summary":"沃尔玛要卖掉自己的传言有了实锤。界面新闻自一名接近沃尔玛的人士独家获悉,沃尔玛打算将东北、华北区域的门店悉数出售给物美,价格30亿美元(合约人民币195亿元)。该消息源披露,此前除了物美同时谈判的还有","content":"<div>\n<p>沃尔玛要卖掉自己的传言有了实锤。界面新闻自一名接近沃尔玛的人士独家获悉,沃尔玛打算将东北、华北区域的门店悉数出售给物美,价格30亿美元(合约人民币195亿元)。该消息源披露,此前除了物美同时谈判的还有其它公司。不过目前基本谈妥,内容包括价格、转让方式等,很大概率是物美接手。此外,高级管理人员调动和后续处理方案已经敲定,还有一部分尚在进行。他称,分拆出售并非沃尔玛本意,实际上沃尔玛想整体出售,物美也...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.jiemian.com/article/6022297.html\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n","source":"jm","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>沃尔玛或向物美出售约130家门店,初步定价30亿美元</title>\n<style 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margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n沃尔玛或向物美出售约130家门店,初步定价30亿美元\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-04-28 11:22 北京时间 <a href=https://www.jiemian.com/article/6022297.html><strong>界面</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>沃尔玛要卖掉自己的传言有了实锤。界面新闻自一名接近沃尔玛的人士独家获悉,沃尔玛打算将东北、华北区域的门店悉数出售给物美,价格30亿美元(合约人民币195亿元)。该消息源披露,此前除了物美同时谈判的还有其它公司。不过目前基本谈妥,内容包括价格、转让方式等,很大概率是物美接手。此外,高级管理人员调动和后续处理方案已经敲定,还有一部分尚在进行。他称,分拆出售并非沃尔玛本意,实际上沃尔玛想整体出售,物美也...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.jiemian.com/article/6022297.html\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d789475d8bbb1e7e7fd53c584d2515e2","relate_stocks":{"WMT":"沃尔玛"},"source_url":"https://www.jiemian.com/article/6022297.html","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1105098623","content_text":"沃尔玛要卖掉自己的传言有了实锤。界面新闻自一名接近沃尔玛的人士独家获悉,沃尔玛打算将东北、华北区域的门店悉数出售给物美,价格30亿美元(合约人民币195亿元)。该消息源披露,此前除了物美同时谈判的还有其它公司。不过目前基本谈妥,内容包括价格、转让方式等,很大概率是物美接手。此外,高级管理人员调动和后续处理方案已经敲定,还有一部分尚在进行。他称,分拆出售并非沃尔玛本意,实际上沃尔玛想整体出售,物美也希望整体买入,但因为未知的原因和价格未达成共识,无法整体出售,只能分拆。但其补充称,“不过只要没有公布一切都存在变数”。对此,沃尔玛回应称:谣言。我们没有必要对谣言做任何评论。沃尔玛官网的门店信息显示,沃尔玛在华北涵盖北京、山西、河北、内蒙古、河南、山东、陕西等区域,拥有门店35家,再算上辽宁、吉林的14家,整个北区有49家店。沃尔玛被出售门店涉及标红框的省份。该人士披露,整个沃尔玛各大区中,华北、东北、华东均处于亏损状态,只有沃尔玛南区和山姆业态在赚钱。界面新闻自沃尔玛一内部员工处确认了该消息,但据其透露,该笔交易的标的门店一共130家左右,不含山姆门店。东区目前在沃尔玛体系内和北区同属一个大区,整个大区内部又划分为8个小区,界面新闻自沃尔玛官网统计,除了原来华北、东北的49家门店之外,沃尔玛在上海、江苏、浙江这三个华东区域加起来一共44家门店,此外还有湖北、安徽的36家店,算下来门店数刚好129家。一名零售行业高管人员向界面新闻分析,如果物美30亿美元购买沃尔玛华北和东北两个区域门店的话,那“沃尔玛赚了”,据他分析,包含华东区域在内的可能性更大,因为这样价格看上去合理一些。毕竟,2年前家乐福80%股权在出售给苏宁时作价48亿元人民币,彼时家乐福在中国拥有200家左右的门店。上述内部员工称,上周已经传出“沃尔玛部分区域出售成功,以及部分员工安排和赔偿方案出来”的传言,此外,公司也在对部分员工进行重新评估,优秀者留下,其他人以瘦身动作淘汰,这自去年新任CEO朱晓静上任以来一直在进行。但目前上不能确定上述减员增效动作是否与出售沃尔玛直接相关。沃尔玛首次传出被卖传闻是在去年9月,彼时投资经验丰富的朱晓静走马上任,加之外资零售巨头麦德龙、家乐福均已出售给中国本土企业,沃尔玛的去留更被关注。但彼时沃尔玛极力否认,并强调“从不对市场流言做评论,也无任何出售中国业务的计划。”4月28日,沃尔玛再次向界面新闻回复,“我们没有必要对谣言做任何评论”。物美方面也称该消息不属实。上述零售从业高管告诉界面新闻,整个大卖场行业已经衰退,尤其是一二线城市,无法承受高租金、电商冲击和持续的客流下滑状态。此前,界面新闻曾报道,沃尔玛大卖场业务的疲软冲击了山姆的2位数业绩增长。沃尔玛在其2021财年(2020年2月1日至2021年1月31日)四季度业绩和全年业绩报告中提到,“山姆的双位数增长被大卖场的疲软销售抵消”。2020财年,沃尔玛中国的净销售额在106.71亿美元(合约人民币693.6亿元),处于轻微下滑的状态。而沃尔玛门店数量也在以肉眼可见的速度减少。沃尔玛2019、2020年财报数据显示,2019财年(2018年2月1日至2019年1月31日),沃尔玛中国的零售门店(沃尔玛大卖场、山姆、沃尔玛惠选社区店)为420个;到了2020财年,沃尔玛中国零售门店数量则下滑至412个。纵观整个沃尔玛门店网络,在华北、华东之外,沃尔玛在整个华南的门店更为密集,尤其是广东、四川、福建、云南等地,共拥有178家门店。如果最终出售掉东区和北区的门店,沃尔玛仍手握接近一半的门店。至于潜在买家,华北的零售巨头目前以物美集团独大。此前,物美进行了多次并购,其中最大规模的一笔就是2019年获得麦德龙中国80%的股权,但该次成交金额始终未做披露。如果本次交易成功,物美真要实现中国版沃尔玛的零售梦了。今年3月30日,物美创始人、董事长张文中在物美招股书的董事长信函中称,零售企业的未来在于数字化基础上的规模化经营。沃尔玛最近一个财年的年销售额超过5500亿美元。而中国最大的实体零售企业年销售不过在1000亿元人民币。物美科技将运用管理层多年累积的经验、数字化的视角和开放且极具延展性的供应链,不断在行业中寻找最优的整合机会,打造中国的流通产业航母。不过物美的盈利能力并不强。按招股书披露的数据,物美在2018年、2019年、2020年的营收分别为213.78亿元、227.47亿元、390.64亿元;净利润分别为2.26亿元、3.94亿元、7.26亿元。其中,2020年的业绩涵盖了麦德龙中国业务的144.8亿元营收和3.07亿元的净利润。但物美的赚钱能力与被阿里收购的大润发相比,大润发2020年总收入为955亿元,净利润高达46.6亿元。2019年,物美的净利润仅为3.94亿元。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1561,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":662750118,"gmtCreate":1666778822534,"gmtModify":1666778870612,"author":{"id":"3554940206157537","authorId":"3554940206157537","name":"企业医生","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/513a78ef1825124f258317ec2711ee7b","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3554940206157537","idStr":"3554940206157537"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a 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