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旁观者清吧

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旁观者清吧

2020-10-10

$百度(BIDU)$两个月前把你卖了，现在一看还是这样，一个衰落的公司，不值得投资。

旁观者清吧

2020-09-03

呵呵

张一鸣该约龚宇聊聊了

旁观者清吧

2020-09-03

$百度(BIDU)$每天收盘前几分钟股价就走势就掉头向下

旁观者清吧

2020-09-01

$百度(BIDU)$**之徒

旁观者清吧

2020-08-26

$百度(BIDU)$真是个没用的玩意

旁观者清吧

2020-08-25

$百度(BIDU)$你为什么烂成这样

旁观者清吧

2020-08-24

$百度(BIDU)$服了

旁观者清吧

2020-08-24

$百度(BIDU)$阿斗

旁观者清吧

2020-08-22

$百度(BIDU)$奸商啊

旁观者清吧

2020-08-22

$百度(BIDU)$简直不要脸到家了，你还是互联网公司吗

旁观者清吧

2020-08-21

$百度(BIDU)$到了这种不要脸的地步了

旁观者清吧

2020-08-21

$百度(BIDU)$没完没了，要不要脸了。

旁观者清吧

2020-05-28

$拼多多(PDD)$被🐶庄操控的死死的

旁观者清吧

2020-05-28

$拼多多(PDD)$又在这样搞，搞上去，再下来，再上去

旁观者清吧

2020-05-19

$百度(BIDU)$整天吹技术，股价跌成狗

旁观者清吧

2020-05-19

$百度(BIDU)$跟拼多多京东比，你也太弱了，差距越拉越大

旁观者清吧

2020-05-19

$拼多多(PDD)$20多天的时间你涨300亿美金，你不怕摔死啊！

去老虎APP查看更多动态

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08:24","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"张一鸣该约龚宇聊聊了","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2064230550","media":"虎嗅APP","summary":"来源｜壹娱观察（ID：yiyuguancha）作者｜大娱乐家原本应该是在疫情期间受益最多的两家公司，却因为截然不同的原因成为了各自行业中的“受难者”。在张一鸣领导下原本高举全球化大旗的字节跳动，在失去","content":"<html><body><div>\n<p auto=\"\" border-box=\"\" helvetica=\"\" hidden=\"\" neue=\"\" normal=\"\" start=\"\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/78c52b4cb8a445928777b66116435366\"/></p><p><span label=\"备注\">来源｜</span><span href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/-A7XPmXwN6Lfo3q6nUrb3Q\" rel=\"nofollow\" target=\"_blank\"><span>壹娱观察</span></span><span>（ID：yiyuguancha）</span></p><p><span>作者｜大娱乐家</span></p><p>原本应该是在疫情期间受益最多的两家公司，却因为截然不同的原因成为了各自行业中的“受难者”。</p><p>在张一鸣领导下原本高举全球化大旗的字节跳动，在失去了几乎整个印度市场之后，其出海排头兵TikTok目前几乎成为了案板上待宰的羔羊，何去何从依然是未知数。</p><p>另一方面，作为国内视频流媒体平台领头羊的<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/IQ\">爱奇艺</a>日子也不顺利，被做空机构指控财务造假在前，市场传闻<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BIDU\">百度</a>有意放手大股东席位在后，而在上一季度财报成绩因国内疫情放缓后出现回落，这也使得一向对外展现出沉稳气质的爱奇艺掌门人龚宇都忍不住在财报会议上公开向消费者喊话：“爱奇艺的会员套餐价格实在是太低了。”</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/49652fc27802445bba9eeedff8dbceaf\"/></p><p label=\"图片备注\">爱奇艺纳斯达克现场图</p><p>如果稍微看过这两位企业创始人的采访，就不难发现张一鸣和龚宇算得上是少数真正相信能够通过技术来革新一个行业的国内互联网企业掌舵者。但二人当下几乎都面临着单靠技术无法解决的问题，字节跳动深陷地缘政治的夹缝之中，爱奇艺则是肉眼可见的需要资金弹药补给。</p><p>一旦TikTok最终失去美国等多个重要的海外市场，基于当下的外部环境，字节跳动显然还需要重新专注于国内市场，壹娱观察（ID：yiyuguancha）曾在《字节跳动影业还有多久成立》一文通过对种种迹象的分析表明“字节跳动影业”已然箭在弦上。</p><p>对于爱奇艺来说，若真要脱离百度，委身<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00700\">腾讯</a>也绝对是下下之选，此时张一鸣要是能够为龚宇送上更多“弹药”，双方联手“抗鹅”或许会有意想不到的收获。</p><p label=\"大标题\"><span><span><em https:=\"\" no-repeat=\"\"></em><span>01. 字节跳动与爱奇艺的艰难时刻：一个“攘外安内”，一个“内忧外患”</span><em https:=\"\" no-repeat=\"\"></em></span></span></p><p>关于TikTok的命运，几乎已经快成了一出“八点档狗血”剧集，每天都有临时加入的“编剧”写出让人无法意料的剧本。</p><p>就在TikTok上任三个月不到的全球CEO 凯文·梅耶尔率先辞职之后，立刻就传出<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MSFT\">微软</a>将在48小时完成相关交易的消息。不过新的剧情很快出现，美国零售巨头<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WMT\">沃尔玛</a>公开表示要参与对TikTok的竞购，尽管谁也不清楚沃尔玛到底是想干什么，但直到这时最起码都证明只要张一鸣能够放下他的骄傲，TikTok肯定是不愁找到一个愿意出钱的下家的。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/90919220c9a34bddadd73eb526c5a664\"/></p><p label=\"图片备注\">图源网络</p><p>但如果故事就这么发展下去，那未免就太小看这个故事背后各方的创意了。</p><p>8月28日，商务部、科技部调整发布《中国禁止出口限制出口技术目录》（以下简称《目录》），《目录》限制出口部分调整内容显示，“计算机服务业”中增加了“基于数据分析的个性化信息推送服务技术”以及“人工智能交互界面技术（包括语音识别技术，麦克风阵列技术，语音唤醒技术，交互理解技术等）”。</p><p>从内容到时间点，这一《目录》所重点针对的对象要说不是字节跳动都很难让人相信。</p><p>“基于数据分析的个性化信息推送服务技术”，事实上这也正是“字节跳动系”产品崛起的关键，个性化算法推荐也逐渐成为全球诸多互联网公司追逐的技术模式。</p><p>凭借国内海量的用户来训练算法并快速扩充流量池，字节跳动在国内打造了抖音、今日头条等数十款应用，一度被称为“爆款应用工厂”。在国外，TikTok也几乎沿用了同样的模式。</p><p>TikTok大热背后的技术基础正是推荐算法，如果字节跳动最终对外出售的资产包含相关技术，就意味着字节跳动剥离TikTok北美四国业务并出售的交易需通过国内监管部门的审批。尽管这并不意味着TikTok的交易就已经告吹，但当新华社都公开表态让字节跳动要“认真研究，严肃慎重考虑交易”后，相信不会有人听不出其弦外之音。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ef86cbbc3d6941ceafb5094ceadb1dd7\"/></p><p label=\"图片备注\"><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WB\">微博</a>截图</p><p>这也为TikTok的最终交易带了更加巨大的变数，毕竟原本更多还是停留海外资本层面的交易，随着中美两国政府的深度参与，无疑又会演变成一场地缘政治角力。</p><p>而张一鸣和字节跳动似乎在获得政府支撑方面远逊于华为，一旦无法顺利实现出售，那么TikTok以及它能够为字节跳动带来的估值预期与实际收益都只能永远停留在账面上了。</p><p>如果说张一鸣更多还只是国际化的壮志雄心遭到严重挫败，那么爱奇艺与龚宇所要面对的问题就更多停留在基础层面——如何向外界证明视频流媒体平台这一商业模式在中国还有一线生机？</p><p>翻看爱奇艺今年第二季度的财报，就不难理解爱奇艺的难言之隐了。</p><p>财报数据显示，爱奇艺2020年第二季度总营收为74亿元，较去年同期增长4%；经营利润为亏损13亿元，去年同期为19亿元，同比收窄；运营亏损率为17％，去年同期为26％。视频网站依旧亏损，相对来说亏损同比减少已经是爱奇艺不断控制成本的结果。</p><p>在视频平台最为在意的订阅用户增长方面，截至第二季度末，爱奇艺订阅用户数为1.05亿，较去年同期的1.005亿增长4%。但同比增长的意义不大，这一数据更重要的是较上一季度的环比，而爱奇艺2020Q1订阅用户数量为1.19亿。会员增长的瓶颈显而易见。</p><p>在订阅会员增长几乎已经见顶的情况，如何维持并让营收继续增长自然成了爱奇艺最为关键的命题，但就目前来看他们给出的解决方案充满未知数。</p><p>此前风行一时的“超前点播”模式引来争议不断，如今爱奇艺又选择推出价格更高的“星钻会员”，试图通过将更多权益纳入会员体系以提升客单价，毕竟就连龚宇都已经忍不住要公开抱怨会员价格太低了。</p><p>当然“星钻会员”服务从5月底才正式上线，具体能够带来多少营收层面的增长还需要等到下一季财报披露才能得知。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bc04e113bc264b159c1cb17f487e5589\"/></p><p label=\"图片备注\">爱奇艺“迷雾剧场”《隐秘的角落》</p><p>内忧之外，爱奇艺更还忙于应付外患，就在最新一季财报发布同时，爱奇艺披露自己正在接受SEC（美国证券交易委员会）的调查。</p><p>而这一调查实际上对应的正是今年4月7日Wolf Pack Research联合MuddyWater对爱奇艺发起的做空报告。那份做空报告表示，爱奇艺在2018年上市之前就存在欺诈行为，预测爱奇艺将2019年的营收夸大了约80亿至130亿元人民币。做空报告认为爱奇艺在用户人数规模、收入和资本开支方面均有夸大。</p><p>时隔四个月，爱奇艺在财报中主动披露并配合SEC相关常规调查，但对于SEC调查和内部审核的时间、结果或后果，爱奇艺都表示自己无法预测，这也为自己在资本市场可能进行的各项运作带来了更大的不确定性。</p><p>身为爱奇艺最大股东的百度，早已无法给爱奇艺输血，并且在长视频竞争胶着的情况下，长视频业务对于百度自身而言的价值可能被外界重新估量，在这个时间点上，百度和爱奇艺都得各自寻求“解脱”之法。</p><p label=\"大标题\"><span><span><em https:=\"\" no-repeat=\"\"></em><span>两位技术男联手，或将打破长视频平台的尴尬平衡</span><em https:=\"\" no-repeat=\"\"></em></span></span></p><p>在《为什么支持字节跳动而不是腾讯拿下爱奇艺？》一文中壹娱观察阐述了关于字节跳动应该与腾讯竞价拿下爱奇艺的提议，并提出了一个观点：“一旦最近TikTok真的开始面临全球化受阻的问题，字节跳动则更需要在国内市场开拓出一片领域，为其千亿估值提供更多的想象力。”</p><p>只是没想到一语成谶来的如此之快，随着TikTok接连不断遭遇麻烦，字节跳动势必需要重新调整其业务重心，继续押注全球化业务在当下的时局显得多少有些不识时务，因此最后的出路，字节跳动依然需要在国内拓展更多的业务。</p><p>除了想尽办法通过抖音进行商业化变现，字节跳动过去一年来其实布局的赛道不少。在短视频变现瓶颈到来时，字节跳动再不折腾其它领域，也将面临营收尴尬。</p><p>在教育领域，字节跳动在gogokid、aiKID、好好学习等产品的尝试之后，之后秘密孵化的K12网校“大力课堂”已于去年5月正式上线，与此同时，字节跳动还收购了一家互联网数学教育平台“清北网校”。最近字节跳动又上线了两款新教育产品——“学浪“和“清北小班”。</p><p>在游戏领域，去年3月，字节跳动收购了<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/002555\">三七互娱</a>一家子公司——上海墨鹍<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/300079\">数码科技</a>有限公司，通过此项收购以及在小游戏如“音跃球球”等产品上的不断试探，字节跳动攻入游戏并以游戏变现的意图展露无遗。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0ddbf619957c486eb475d2a1e4e54ecf\"/></p><p label=\"图片备注\">抖音走红的小游戏“音跃球球”</p><p>另外，壹娱观察此前的系列文章中已经深入讨论过的所谓“字节跳动影业”，背后更是字节跳动明面或暗地里布局影视领域的策略。</p><p>大举购买电影、剧集版权，重金从竞争对手处挖角UP主，40亿预算自制综艺，连续投资影视上下游等动作，都让字节跳动进入长视频领域的企图直接摆在了台面上。</p><p>互联网行业内一个普遍的说法是“短视频负责引流，长视频负责留存”，这也足以解释短视频业务增长已经逐渐触及天花板的字节跳动为何如此执迷于长视频业务。</p><p>在已经拥有抖音与西瓜视频两个覆盖了短视频及中长视频的平台之后，对于长视频平台，字节跳动的选择方向其实只剩两个，要么内部重新从头开始自己做或者继续把西瓜视频复杂化，要么寻求市场可供收购的优质标的。</p><p>而就目前来看，需要一个更具有资本补给能力与业务互补性靠山的爱奇艺无疑是最佳选择。</p><p>爱奇艺通过多年努力建立起来的影视行业资源和领先的内容自制能力，也会让字节跳动在长视频布局这块更如鱼得水。</p><p>爱奇艺所锻炼出的能力并不是字节跳动硬生生砸钱给西瓜视频就能获得的。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/abb09c82ec5b45bcb9d7c3e9bf4a33a8\"/></p><p label=\"图片备注\">《中国好声音2020》在西瓜视频独播</p><p>再加上前文已经提到，作为爱奇艺的大股东，百度如今早已无法像腾讯和<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ARNA\">阿里那</a>样为旗下的视频平台提供资本弹药，但现实情况就是国内的视频流媒体商业模式在当下依然无法实现营收平衡，即便是已经上市的爱奇艺，如今依然是在不断发债维持高成本的投入。</p><p>即便字节跳动最终无法从TikTok的出售中获得太多回报，作为一家营收上千亿的公司，字节跳动依然还有底气能够让爱奇艺继续在这场长视频平台马拉松中继续领跑下去。</p><p>同时，不论是在PUGC视频还是影视长视频方面，“破圈”心切的B站如今展现着自己膨胀的野心，四面出击。</p><p>一方面其自制综艺《说唱新世代》摆明了是要向爱奇艺擅长的自制综艺板块发起挑战，另一方面，就在8月最后一天，B站宣布以5.13亿港元战略投资<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/01003\">欢喜传媒</a>，双方将围绕影视剧播出、影视IP衍生开发等进行一系列深入合作，在获得外部独播权方面，B站实际上接档的正是因为《囧妈》与欢喜传媒达成合作的字节跳动。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/53d15728492a4cd992a3e218e4b62bb4\"/></p><p label=\"图片备注\">《囧妈》剧照</p><p>虽然目前就断言B站已经决心进军长视频领域还是为时尚早，但面对背靠腾讯的B站，不论是字节跳动还是爱奇艺都不得不防。</p><p>归根结底，如今国内的视频流媒体们已经陷入了一种尴尬的境况，为了在竞争中维持竞争力不得不持续投入，但投资回报率却越来越低。爱奇艺与腾讯视频的两强相争，最后又演变成了内容逐渐同质化的军备竞赛。</p><p>基于大环境很难说字节跳动入局就能在短时间内快速改善国产影视内容的真题质量，但张一鸣与龚宇两位对技术有坚定信念的人联手，或许能够在某些层面打破如今这一行业尴尬又脆弱的平衡局面。</p><p>张一鸣该“回国”了。</p><p auto=\"\" border-box=\"\" helvetica=\"\" hidden=\"\" neue=\"\" normal=\"\" rgb=\"\" start=\"\">本内容为作者独立观点，不代表虎嗅立场。未经允许不得转载，授权事宜请联系hezuo@huxiu.com如对本稿件有异议或投诉，请联系tougao@huxiu.com</p><p auto=\"\" border-box=\"\" center=\"\" flex=\"\" helvetica=\"\" hidden=\"\" justify=\"\" neue=\"\" normal=\"\" space-between=\"\" start=\"\"><span></span><span>End</span></p><p><span>吨</span></p><p><span>吨～吨～</span></p><p><span>吨 吨 吨</span></p><p><span>吨 吨 吨 吨 吨 吨</span></p><p><span>要说的都在酒里了，直播间见</span></p><p><span>↓↓↓↓↓↓↓↓</span></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0c22269fe89944068e424db80b02717a\"/></p><p gb=\"\" helvetica=\"\" left=\"\" neue=\"\" normal=\"\" rgb=\"\" roboto=\"\" sans=\"\" sans-serif=\"\" sc=\"\" simsun=\"\" ui=\"\" yahei=\"\"><span>扫码或点击阅读原文预约直播</span></p>\n</div></body></html>","source":"weixin_highlight","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>张一鸣该约龚宇聊聊了</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ 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margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n张一鸣该约龚宇聊聊了\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/101\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/98669fe7974e42f3976b3db47528792d);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">虎嗅APP </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2020-09-03 08:24</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><body><div>\n<p auto=\"\" border-box=\"\" helvetica=\"\" hidden=\"\" neue=\"\" normal=\"\" start=\"\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/78c52b4cb8a445928777b66116435366\"/></p><p><span label=\"备注\">来源｜</span><span href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/-A7XPmXwN6Lfo3q6nUrb3Q\" rel=\"nofollow\" target=\"_blank\"><span>壹娱观察</span></span><span>（ID：yiyuguancha）</span></p><p><span>作者｜大娱乐家</span></p><p>原本应该是在疫情期间受益最多的两家公司，却因为截然不同的原因成为了各自行业中的“受难者”。</p><p>在张一鸣领导下原本高举全球化大旗的字节跳动，在失去了几乎整个印度市场之后，其出海排头兵TikTok目前几乎成为了案板上待宰的羔羊，何去何从依然是未知数。</p><p>另一方面，作为国内视频流媒体平台领头羊的<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/IQ\">爱奇艺</a>日子也不顺利，被做空机构指控财务造假在前，市场传闻<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BIDU\">百度</a>有意放手大股东席位在后，而在上一季度财报成绩因国内疫情放缓后出现回落，这也使得一向对外展现出沉稳气质的爱奇艺掌门人龚宇都忍不住在财报会议上公开向消费者喊话：“爱奇艺的会员套餐价格实在是太低了。”</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/49652fc27802445bba9eeedff8dbceaf\"/></p><p label=\"图片备注\">爱奇艺纳斯达克现场图</p><p>如果稍微看过这两位企业创始人的采访，就不难发现张一鸣和龚宇算得上是少数真正相信能够通过技术来革新一个行业的国内互联网企业掌舵者。但二人当下几乎都面临着单靠技术无法解决的问题，字节跳动深陷地缘政治的夹缝之中，爱奇艺则是肉眼可见的需要资金弹药补给。</p><p>一旦TikTok最终失去美国等多个重要的海外市场，基于当下的外部环境，字节跳动显然还需要重新专注于国内市场，壹娱观察（ID：yiyuguancha）曾在《字节跳动影业还有多久成立》一文通过对种种迹象的分析表明“字节跳动影业”已然箭在弦上。</p><p>对于爱奇艺来说，若真要脱离百度，委身<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00700\">腾讯</a>也绝对是下下之选，此时张一鸣要是能够为龚宇送上更多“弹药”，双方联手“抗鹅”或许会有意想不到的收获。</p><p label=\"大标题\"><span><span><em https:=\"\" no-repeat=\"\"></em><span>01. 字节跳动与爱奇艺的艰难时刻：一个“攘外安内”，一个“内忧外患”</span><em https:=\"\" no-repeat=\"\"></em></span></span></p><p>关于TikTok的命运，几乎已经快成了一出“八点档狗血”剧集，每天都有临时加入的“编剧”写出让人无法意料的剧本。</p><p>就在TikTok上任三个月不到的全球CEO 凯文·梅耶尔率先辞职之后，立刻就传出<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MSFT\">微软</a>将在48小时完成相关交易的消息。不过新的剧情很快出现，美国零售巨头<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WMT\">沃尔玛</a>公开表示要参与对TikTok的竞购，尽管谁也不清楚沃尔玛到底是想干什么，但直到这时最起码都证明只要张一鸣能够放下他的骄傲，TikTok肯定是不愁找到一个愿意出钱的下家的。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/90919220c9a34bddadd73eb526c5a664\"/></p><p label=\"图片备注\">图源网络</p><p>但如果故事就这么发展下去，那未免就太小看这个故事背后各方的创意了。</p><p>8月28日，商务部、科技部调整发布《中国禁止出口限制出口技术目录》（以下简称《目录》），《目录》限制出口部分调整内容显示，“计算机服务业”中增加了“基于数据分析的个性化信息推送服务技术”以及“人工智能交互界面技术（包括语音识别技术，麦克风阵列技术，语音唤醒技术，交互理解技术等）”。</p><p>从内容到时间点，这一《目录》所重点针对的对象要说不是字节跳动都很难让人相信。</p><p>“基于数据分析的个性化信息推送服务技术”，事实上这也正是“字节跳动系”产品崛起的关键，个性化算法推荐也逐渐成为全球诸多互联网公司追逐的技术模式。</p><p>凭借国内海量的用户来训练算法并快速扩充流量池，字节跳动在国内打造了抖音、今日头条等数十款应用，一度被称为“爆款应用工厂”。在国外，TikTok也几乎沿用了同样的模式。</p><p>TikTok大热背后的技术基础正是推荐算法，如果字节跳动最终对外出售的资产包含相关技术，就意味着字节跳动剥离TikTok北美四国业务并出售的交易需通过国内监管部门的审批。尽管这并不意味着TikTok的交易就已经告吹，但当新华社都公开表态让字节跳动要“认真研究，严肃慎重考虑交易”后，相信不会有人听不出其弦外之音。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ef86cbbc3d6941ceafb5094ceadb1dd7\"/></p><p label=\"图片备注\"><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WB\">微博</a>截图</p><p>这也为TikTok的最终交易带了更加巨大的变数，毕竟原本更多还是停留海外资本层面的交易，随着中美两国政府的深度参与，无疑又会演变成一场地缘政治角力。</p><p>而张一鸣和字节跳动似乎在获得政府支撑方面远逊于华为，一旦无法顺利实现出售，那么TikTok以及它能够为字节跳动带来的估值预期与实际收益都只能永远停留在账面上了。</p><p>如果说张一鸣更多还只是国际化的壮志雄心遭到严重挫败，那么爱奇艺与龚宇所要面对的问题就更多停留在基础层面——如何向外界证明视频流媒体平台这一商业模式在中国还有一线生机？</p><p>翻看爱奇艺今年第二季度的财报，就不难理解爱奇艺的难言之隐了。</p><p>财报数据显示，爱奇艺2020年第二季度总营收为74亿元，较去年同期增长4%；经营利润为亏损13亿元，去年同期为19亿元，同比收窄；运营亏损率为17％，去年同期为26％。视频网站依旧亏损，相对来说亏损同比减少已经是爱奇艺不断控制成本的结果。</p><p>在视频平台最为在意的订阅用户增长方面，截至第二季度末，爱奇艺订阅用户数为1.05亿，较去年同期的1.005亿增长4%。但同比增长的意义不大，这一数据更重要的是较上一季度的环比，而爱奇艺2020Q1订阅用户数量为1.19亿。会员增长的瓶颈显而易见。</p><p>在订阅会员增长几乎已经见顶的情况，如何维持并让营收继续增长自然成了爱奇艺最为关键的命题，但就目前来看他们给出的解决方案充满未知数。</p><p>此前风行一时的“超前点播”模式引来争议不断，如今爱奇艺又选择推出价格更高的“星钻会员”，试图通过将更多权益纳入会员体系以提升客单价，毕竟就连龚宇都已经忍不住要公开抱怨会员价格太低了。</p><p>当然“星钻会员”服务从5月底才正式上线，具体能够带来多少营收层面的增长还需要等到下一季财报披露才能得知。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bc04e113bc264b159c1cb17f487e5589\"/></p><p label=\"图片备注\">爱奇艺“迷雾剧场”《隐秘的角落》</p><p>内忧之外，爱奇艺更还忙于应付外患，就在最新一季财报发布同时，爱奇艺披露自己正在接受SEC（美国证券交易委员会）的调查。</p><p>而这一调查实际上对应的正是今年4月7日Wolf Pack Research联合MuddyWater对爱奇艺发起的做空报告。那份做空报告表示，爱奇艺在2018年上市之前就存在欺诈行为，预测爱奇艺将2019年的营收夸大了约80亿至130亿元人民币。做空报告认为爱奇艺在用户人数规模、收入和资本开支方面均有夸大。</p><p>时隔四个月，爱奇艺在财报中主动披露并配合SEC相关常规调查，但对于SEC调查和内部审核的时间、结果或后果，爱奇艺都表示自己无法预测，这也为自己在资本市场可能进行的各项运作带来了更大的不确定性。</p><p>身为爱奇艺最大股东的百度，早已无法给爱奇艺输血，并且在长视频竞争胶着的情况下，长视频业务对于百度自身而言的价值可能被外界重新估量，在这个时间点上，百度和爱奇艺都得各自寻求“解脱”之法。</p><p label=\"大标题\"><span><span><em https:=\"\" no-repeat=\"\"></em><span>两位技术男联手，或将打破长视频平台的尴尬平衡</span><em https:=\"\" no-repeat=\"\"></em></span></span></p><p>在《为什么支持字节跳动而不是腾讯拿下爱奇艺？》一文中壹娱观察阐述了关于字节跳动应该与腾讯竞价拿下爱奇艺的提议，并提出了一个观点：“一旦最近TikTok真的开始面临全球化受阻的问题，字节跳动则更需要在国内市场开拓出一片领域，为其千亿估值提供更多的想象力。”</p><p>只是没想到一语成谶来的如此之快，随着TikTok接连不断遭遇麻烦，字节跳动势必需要重新调整其业务重心，继续押注全球化业务在当下的时局显得多少有些不识时务，因此最后的出路，字节跳动依然需要在国内拓展更多的业务。</p><p>除了想尽办法通过抖音进行商业化变现，字节跳动过去一年来其实布局的赛道不少。在短视频变现瓶颈到来时，字节跳动再不折腾其它领域，也将面临营收尴尬。</p><p>在教育领域，字节跳动在gogokid、aiKID、好好学习等产品的尝试之后，之后秘密孵化的K12网校“大力课堂”已于去年5月正式上线，与此同时，字节跳动还收购了一家互联网数学教育平台“清北网校”。最近字节跳动又上线了两款新教育产品——“学浪“和“清北小班”。</p><p>在游戏领域，去年3月，字节跳动收购了<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/002555\">三七互娱</a>一家子公司——上海墨鹍<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/300079\">数码科技</a>有限公司，通过此项收购以及在小游戏如“音跃球球”等产品上的不断试探，字节跳动攻入游戏并以游戏变现的意图展露无遗。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0ddbf619957c486eb475d2a1e4e54ecf\"/></p><p label=\"图片备注\">抖音走红的小游戏“音跃球球”</p><p>另外，壹娱观察此前的系列文章中已经深入讨论过的所谓“字节跳动影业”，背后更是字节跳动明面或暗地里布局影视领域的策略。</p><p>大举购买电影、剧集版权，重金从竞争对手处挖角UP主，40亿预算自制综艺，连续投资影视上下游等动作，都让字节跳动进入长视频领域的企图直接摆在了台面上。</p><p>互联网行业内一个普遍的说法是“短视频负责引流，长视频负责留存”，这也足以解释短视频业务增长已经逐渐触及天花板的字节跳动为何如此执迷于长视频业务。</p><p>在已经拥有抖音与西瓜视频两个覆盖了短视频及中长视频的平台之后，对于长视频平台，字节跳动的选择方向其实只剩两个，要么内部重新从头开始自己做或者继续把西瓜视频复杂化，要么寻求市场可供收购的优质标的。</p><p>而就目前来看，需要一个更具有资本补给能力与业务互补性靠山的爱奇艺无疑是最佳选择。</p><p>爱奇艺通过多年努力建立起来的影视行业资源和领先的内容自制能力，也会让字节跳动在长视频布局这块更如鱼得水。</p><p>爱奇艺所锻炼出的能力并不是字节跳动硬生生砸钱给西瓜视频就能获得的。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/abb09c82ec5b45bcb9d7c3e9bf4a33a8\"/></p><p label=\"图片备注\">《中国好声音2020》在西瓜视频独播</p><p>再加上前文已经提到，作为爱奇艺的大股东，百度如今早已无法像腾讯和<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ARNA\">阿里那</a>样为旗下的视频平台提供资本弹药，但现实情况就是国内的视频流媒体商业模式在当下依然无法实现营收平衡，即便是已经上市的爱奇艺，如今依然是在不断发债维持高成本的投入。</p><p>即便字节跳动最终无法从TikTok的出售中获得太多回报，作为一家营收上千亿的公司，字节跳动依然还有底气能够让爱奇艺继续在这场长视频平台马拉松中继续领跑下去。</p><p>同时，不论是在PUGC视频还是影视长视频方面，“破圈”心切的B站如今展现着自己膨胀的野心，四面出击。</p><p>一方面其自制综艺《说唱新世代》摆明了是要向爱奇艺擅长的自制综艺板块发起挑战，另一方面，就在8月最后一天，B站宣布以5.13亿港元战略投资<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/01003\">欢喜传媒</a>，双方将围绕影视剧播出、影视IP衍生开发等进行一系列深入合作，在获得外部独播权方面，B站实际上接档的正是因为《囧妈》与欢喜传媒达成合作的字节跳动。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/53d15728492a4cd992a3e218e4b62bb4\"/></p><p label=\"图片备注\">《囧妈》剧照</p><p>虽然目前就断言B站已经决心进军长视频领域还是为时尚早，但面对背靠腾讯的B站，不论是字节跳动还是爱奇艺都不得不防。</p><p>归根结底，如今国内的视频流媒体们已经陷入了一种尴尬的境况，为了在竞争中维持竞争力不得不持续投入，但投资回报率却越来越低。爱奇艺与腾讯视频的两强相争，最后又演变成了内容逐渐同质化的军备竞赛。</p><p>基于大环境很难说字节跳动入局就能在短时间内快速改善国产影视内容的真题质量，但张一鸣与龚宇两位对技术有坚定信念的人联手，或许能够在某些层面打破如今这一行业尴尬又脆弱的平衡局面。</p><p>张一鸣该“回国”了。</p><p auto=\"\" border-box=\"\" helvetica=\"\" hidden=\"\" neue=\"\" normal=\"\" rgb=\"\" start=\"\">本内容为作者独立观点，不代表虎嗅立场。未经允许不得转载，授权事宜请联系hezuo@huxiu.com如对本稿件有异议或投诉，请联系tougao@huxiu.com</p><p auto=\"\" border-box=\"\" center=\"\" flex=\"\" helvetica=\"\" hidden=\"\" justify=\"\" neue=\"\" normal=\"\" space-between=\"\" start=\"\"><span></span><span>End</span></p><p><span>吨</span></p><p><span>吨～吨～</span></p><p><span>吨 吨 吨</span></p><p><span>吨 吨 吨 吨 吨 吨</span></p><p><span>要说的都在酒里了，直播间见</span></p><p><span>↓↓↓↓↓↓↓↓</span></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0c22269fe89944068e424db80b02717a\"/></p><p gb=\"\" helvetica=\"\" left=\"\" neue=\"\" normal=\"\" rgb=\"\" roboto=\"\" sans=\"\" sans-serif=\"\" sc=\"\" simsun=\"\" ui=\"\" yahei=\"\"><span>扫码或点击阅读原文预约直播</span></p>\n</div></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1c0bfebcb37e1240d16377a06ed99d55","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"http://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MTQzMjE1NjQwMQ==&mid=2655611255&idx=1&sn=d06186d8071d5be7f33a2892902b6fde&chksm=66dec6e951a94fffb3fa9626ab26879f634302c13de02cb44e53f2a4dddac87c6bbf8d357c71&scene=0#rd","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/ecd74548980bc5b366aa8f4b37ed0bd5","article_id":"2064230550","content_text":"来源｜壹娱观察（ID：yiyuguancha）作者｜大娱乐家原本应该是在疫情期间受益最多的两家公司，却因为截然不同的原因成为了各自行业中的“受难者”。在张一鸣领导下原本高举全球化大旗的字节跳动，在失去了几乎整个印度市场之后，其出海排头兵TikTok目前几乎成为了案板上待宰的羔羊，何去何从依然是未知数。另一方面，作为国内视频流媒体平台领头羊的爱奇艺日子也不顺利，被做空机构指控财务造假在前，市场传闻百度有意放手大股东席位在后，而在上一季度财报成绩因国内疫情放缓后出现回落，这也使得一向对外展现出沉稳气质的爱奇艺掌门人龚宇都忍不住在财报会议上公开向消费者喊话：“爱奇艺的会员套餐价格实在是太低了。”爱奇艺纳斯达克现场图如果稍微看过这两位企业创始人的采访，就不难发现张一鸣和龚宇算得上是少数真正相信能够通过技术来革新一个行业的国内互联网企业掌舵者。但二人当下几乎都面临着单靠技术无法解决的问题，字节跳动深陷地缘政治的夹缝之中，爱奇艺则是肉眼可见的需要资金弹药补给。一旦TikTok最终失去美国等多个重要的海外市场，基于当下的外部环境，字节跳动显然还需要重新专注于国内市场，壹娱观察（ID：yiyuguancha）曾在《字节跳动影业还有多久成立》一文通过对种种迹象的分析表明“字节跳动影业”已然箭在弦上。对于爱奇艺来说，若真要脱离百度，委身腾讯也绝对是下下之选，此时张一鸣要是能够为龚宇送上更多“弹药”，双方联手“抗鹅”或许会有意想不到的收获。01. 字节跳动与爱奇艺的艰难时刻：一个“攘外安内”，一个“内忧外患”关于TikTok的命运，几乎已经快成了一出“八点档狗血”剧集，每天都有临时加入的“编剧”写出让人无法意料的剧本。就在TikTok上任三个月不到的全球CEO 凯文·梅耶尔率先辞职之后，立刻就传出微软将在48小时完成相关交易的消息。不过新的剧情很快出现，美国零售巨头沃尔玛公开表示要参与对TikTok的竞购，尽管谁也不清楚沃尔玛到底是想干什么，但直到这时最起码都证明只要张一鸣能够放下他的骄傲，TikTok肯定是不愁找到一个愿意出钱的下家的。图源网络但如果故事就这么发展下去，那未免就太小看这个故事背后各方的创意了。8月28日，商务部、科技部调整发布《中国禁止出口限制出口技术目录》（以下简称《目录》），《目录》限制出口部分调整内容显示，“计算机服务业”中增加了“基于数据分析的个性化信息推送服务技术”以及“人工智能交互界面技术（包括语音识别技术，麦克风阵列技术，语音唤醒技术，交互理解技术等）”。从内容到时间点，这一《目录》所重点针对的对象要说不是字节跳动都很难让人相信。“基于数据分析的个性化信息推送服务技术”，事实上这也正是“字节跳动系”产品崛起的关键，个性化算法推荐也逐渐成为全球诸多互联网公司追逐的技术模式。凭借国内海量的用户来训练算法并快速扩充流量池，字节跳动在国内打造了抖音、今日头条等数十款应用，一度被称为“爆款应用工厂”。在国外，TikTok也几乎沿用了同样的模式。TikTok大热背后的技术基础正是推荐算法，如果字节跳动最终对外出售的资产包含相关技术，就意味着字节跳动剥离TikTok北美四国业务并出售的交易需通过国内监管部门的审批。尽管这并不意味着TikTok的交易就已经告吹，但当新华社都公开表态让字节跳动要“认真研究，严肃慎重考虑交易”后，相信不会有人听不出其弦外之音。微博截图这也为TikTok的最终交易带了更加巨大的变数，毕竟原本更多还是停留海外资本层面的交易，随着中美两国政府的深度参与，无疑又会演变成一场地缘政治角力。而张一鸣和字节跳动似乎在获得政府支撑方面远逊于华为，一旦无法顺利实现出售，那么TikTok以及它能够为字节跳动带来的估值预期与实际收益都只能永远停留在账面上了。如果说张一鸣更多还只是国际化的壮志雄心遭到严重挫败，那么爱奇艺与龚宇所要面对的问题就更多停留在基础层面——如何向外界证明视频流媒体平台这一商业模式在中国还有一线生机？翻看爱奇艺今年第二季度的财报，就不难理解爱奇艺的难言之隐了。财报数据显示，爱奇艺2020年第二季度总营收为74亿元，较去年同期增长4%；经营利润为亏损13亿元，去年同期为19亿元，同比收窄；运营亏损率为17％，去年同期为26％。视频网站依旧亏损，相对来说亏损同比减少已经是爱奇艺不断控制成本的结果。在视频平台最为在意的订阅用户增长方面，截至第二季度末，爱奇艺订阅用户数为1.05亿，较去年同期的1.005亿增长4%。但同比增长的意义不大，这一数据更重要的是较上一季度的环比，而爱奇艺2020Q1订阅用户数量为1.19亿。会员增长的瓶颈显而易见。在订阅会员增长几乎已经见顶的情况，如何维持并让营收继续增长自然成了爱奇艺最为关键的命题，但就目前来看他们给出的解决方案充满未知数。此前风行一时的“超前点播”模式引来争议不断，如今爱奇艺又选择推出价格更高的“星钻会员”，试图通过将更多权益纳入会员体系以提升客单价，毕竟就连龚宇都已经忍不住要公开抱怨会员价格太低了。当然“星钻会员”服务从5月底才正式上线，具体能够带来多少营收层面的增长还需要等到下一季财报披露才能得知。爱奇艺“迷雾剧场”《隐秘的角落》内忧之外，爱奇艺更还忙于应付外患，就在最新一季财报发布同时，爱奇艺披露自己正在接受SEC（美国证券交易委员会）的调查。而这一调查实际上对应的正是今年4月7日Wolf Pack Research联合MuddyWater对爱奇艺发起的做空报告。那份做空报告表示，爱奇艺在2018年上市之前就存在欺诈行为，预测爱奇艺将2019年的营收夸大了约80亿至130亿元人民币。做空报告认为爱奇艺在用户人数规模、收入和资本开支方面均有夸大。时隔四个月，爱奇艺在财报中主动披露并配合SEC相关常规调查，但对于SEC调查和内部审核的时间、结果或后果，爱奇艺都表示自己无法预测，这也为自己在资本市场可能进行的各项运作带来了更大的不确定性。身为爱奇艺最大股东的百度，早已无法给爱奇艺输血，并且在长视频竞争胶着的情况下，长视频业务对于百度自身而言的价值可能被外界重新估量，在这个时间点上，百度和爱奇艺都得各自寻求“解脱”之法。两位技术男联手，或将打破长视频平台的尴尬平衡在《为什么支持字节跳动而不是腾讯拿下爱奇艺？》一文中壹娱观察阐述了关于字节跳动应该与腾讯竞价拿下爱奇艺的提议，并提出了一个观点：“一旦最近TikTok真的开始面临全球化受阻的问题，字节跳动则更需要在国内市场开拓出一片领域，为其千亿估值提供更多的想象力。”只是没想到一语成谶来的如此之快，随着TikTok接连不断遭遇麻烦，字节跳动势必需要重新调整其业务重心，继续押注全球化业务在当下的时局显得多少有些不识时务，因此最后的出路，字节跳动依然需要在国内拓展更多的业务。除了想尽办法通过抖音进行商业化变现，字节跳动过去一年来其实布局的赛道不少。在短视频变现瓶颈到来时，字节跳动再不折腾其它领域，也将面临营收尴尬。在教育领域，字节跳动在gogokid、aiKID、好好学习等产品的尝试之后，之后秘密孵化的K12网校“大力课堂”已于去年5月正式上线，与此同时，字节跳动还收购了一家互联网数学教育平台“清北网校”。最近字节跳动又上线了两款新教育产品——“学浪“和“清北小班”。在游戏领域，去年3月，字节跳动收购了三七互娱一家子公司——上海墨鹍数码科技有限公司，通过此项收购以及在小游戏如“音跃球球”等产品上的不断试探，字节跳动攻入游戏并以游戏变现的意图展露无遗。抖音走红的小游戏“音跃球球”另外，壹娱观察此前的系列文章中已经深入讨论过的所谓“字节跳动影业”，背后更是字节跳动明面或暗地里布局影视领域的策略。大举购买电影、剧集版权，重金从竞争对手处挖角UP主，40亿预算自制综艺，连续投资影视上下游等动作，都让字节跳动进入长视频领域的企图直接摆在了台面上。互联网行业内一个普遍的说法是“短视频负责引流，长视频负责留存”，这也足以解释短视频业务增长已经逐渐触及天花板的字节跳动为何如此执迷于长视频业务。在已经拥有抖音与西瓜视频两个覆盖了短视频及中长视频的平台之后，对于长视频平台，字节跳动的选择方向其实只剩两个，要么内部重新从头开始自己做或者继续把西瓜视频复杂化，要么寻求市场可供收购的优质标的。而就目前来看，需要一个更具有资本补给能力与业务互补性靠山的爱奇艺无疑是最佳选择。爱奇艺通过多年努力建立起来的影视行业资源和领先的内容自制能力，也会让字节跳动在长视频布局这块更如鱼得水。爱奇艺所锻炼出的能力并不是字节跳动硬生生砸钱给西瓜视频就能获得的。《中国好声音2020》在西瓜视频独播再加上前文已经提到，作为爱奇艺的大股东，百度如今早已无法像腾讯和阿里那样为旗下的视频平台提供资本弹药，但现实情况就是国内的视频流媒体商业模式在当下依然无法实现营收平衡，即便是已经上市的爱奇艺，如今依然是在不断发债维持高成本的投入。即便字节跳动最终无法从TikTok的出售中获得太多回报，作为一家营收上千亿的公司，字节跳动依然还有底气能够让爱奇艺继续在这场长视频平台马拉松中继续领跑下去。同时，不论是在PUGC视频还是影视长视频方面，“破圈”心切的B站如今展现着自己膨胀的野心，四面出击。一方面其自制综艺《说唱新世代》摆明了是要向爱奇艺擅长的自制综艺板块发起挑战，另一方面，就在8月最后一天，B站宣布以5.13亿港元战略投资欢喜传媒，双方将围绕影视剧播出、影视IP衍生开发等进行一系列深入合作，在获得外部独播权方面，B站实际上接档的正是因为《囧妈》与欢喜传媒达成合作的字节跳动。《囧妈》剧照虽然目前就断言B站已经决心进军长视频领域还是为时尚早，但面对背靠腾讯的B站，不论是字节跳动还是爱奇艺都不得不防。归根结底，如今国内的视频流媒体们已经陷入了一种尴尬的境况，为了在竞争中维持竞争力不得不持续投入，但投资回报率却越来越低。爱奇艺与腾讯视频的两强相争，最后又演变成了内容逐渐同质化的军备竞赛。基于大环境很难说字节跳动入局就能在短时间内快速改善国产影视内容的真题质量，但张一鸣与龚宇两位对技术有坚定信念的人联手，或许能够在某些层面打破如今这一行业尴尬又脆弱的平衡局面。张一鸣该“回国”了。本内容为作者独立观点，不代表虎嗅立场。未经允许不得转载，授权事宜请联系hezuo@huxiu.com如对本稿件有异议或投诉，请联系tougao@huxiu.comEnd吨吨～吨～吨 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