神猜的个人主页 - 老虎社区

神猜

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IP属地：江苏

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1主题

0勋章

2022-10-21

$快手-W(01024)$有钱都往外跑，跌到底

2022-10-21

$快手-W(01024)$跌到5块

2021-12-16

你去退款得了，不然得了神经病没有人负责的[财迷]

@比亚:$硅鑫集团(08349)$哎就剩下报警了

2021-11-03

$快手-W(01024)$不叫快手叫快守住的住

2021-10-18

$快手-W(01024)$到50进场

2021-10-18

$快手-W(01024)$50有希望[微笑]

2021-10-15

$快手-W(01024)$50我进多一分都不干[财迷]

2021-08-13

$快手-W(01024)$41块7毛操底[开心]

2021-08-05

$快手-W(01024)$到30可进场

2021-07-26

$快手-W(01024)$50都不值

2021-07-26

$快手-W(01024)$50元也不值

2021-07-26

$快手-W(01024)$今天应该破发了吧

2020-11-06

快手假货多

揭开快手的底层面纱：成在直播，败在广告，电商存在感低

2020-11-02

准备割韭菜了

蚂蚁集团据悉在香港暗盘市场交易价格有50%的溢价

去老虎APP查看更多动态

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href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/01024\">$快手-W(01024)$</a>50元也不值","text":"$快手-W(01024)$50元也不值","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/800363996","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":894,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":800369389,"gmtCreate":1627278868041,"gmtModify":1627278868041,"author":{"id":"3550617241654213","authorId":"3550617241654213","name":"神猜","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/37effa476c7b4e3e79cf906e58e560f4","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/01024\">$快手-W(01024)$</a>今天应该破发了吧","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/01024\">$快手-W(01024)$</a>今天应该破发了吧","text":"$快手-W(01024)$今天应该破发了吧","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/800369389","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1950,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":302204484,"gmtCreate":1604639545448,"gmtModify":1703834214906,"author":{"id":"3550617241654213","authorId":"3550617241654213","name":"神猜","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/37effa476c7b4e3e79cf906e58e560f4","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"快手假货多","listText":"快手假货多","text":"快手假货多","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/302204484","repostId":"1172613833","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1172613833","pubTimestamp":1604627398,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1172613833?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2020-11-06 09:49","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"揭开快手的底层面纱：成在直播，败在广告，电商存在感低","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1172613833","media":"商业数据派","summary":"抖音与快手IPO赛跑的第一回合已见分晓，11月5日晚，快手率先向港股递交招股书。从招股书可以看出，由于收入高度依赖于直播，主播分成成本高，因此快手的毛利率始终难以突破。这背后，相较于抖音，快手强于私域","content":"<p>抖音与快手IPO赛跑的第一回合已见分晓，11月5日晚，快手率先向港股递交招股书。</p><p>从招股书可以看出，由于收入高度依赖于直播，主播分成成本高，因此快手的毛利率始终难以突破。这背后，相较于抖音，快手强于私域流量，因此目前在直播、电商上更具优势；而抖音强于公域流量，因此更受广告主青睐，且用户量更大，日活已接近快手的两倍。</p><p>随着短视频流量增长见顶，双方将在未来业务上短兵相接。但要培育新业务，双方在资本市场的较量更为关键，先成为“短视频第一股”，有望能在日后广告营销、电商新业务赛道上获得更多弹药。</p><p>未来短视频行业，及两巨头竞争路向何方，从快手的招股书中可窥见一二。</p><p><b>短视频巨头快手，竟是一家“直播公司”</b></p><p>从招股书中可以看出，2020年上半年快手实现收入253亿元，同比增长48%，仍在高速增长中，但增速已经明显下降。2017年、2018年、2019年的总收入分别为83亿元、203亿元、391亿元，据此计算2018和2019年的收入增幅约为145%和93%。</p><p>与此同时，快手的毛利率稳定但并不算高。根据招股书，2020年上半年，快手毛利率为34.3%。相比之下，2017年至2019年快手毛利率分别为31.3%、28.6%和36.1%，一直稳定在一定区间内。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7ef516e5f52665dd345f5ca731ad4116\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"683\"></p><p>毛利率提升受限，源于快手对直播的依赖。从招股书可以看到，快手的收入来自于三部分，直播、线上营销和其他业务。其中，2020上半年，快手直播收入173.5亿元，占据总收入的比例为68.5%；而这已经是近年来的最低值，2017年至2019年，快手直播收入一路从79.5亿元提升至314.4亿元，三年间直播分别贡献了快手95.3%、91.7%和80.4%的收入</p><p><b>快手直播的主要收入方式与其他平台类似，主要来自向观众销售虚拟物品，用途是“打赏”主播。因此由于此模式下较高的分成，限制了快手的毛利率。</b></p><p>从招股书中可以看出，2020上半年快手主播的收入分成及相关税项为97.9亿元，占总收入的比例为38.7%。此前数年间，2017到2019快手主播的收入分成及相关税项为44亿元、104亿元和181亿元，占比分别为52.7%、51.2%和46.4%。</p><p>其中，2020年上半年快手直播收入占比下降，这背后，快手正将线上营销和电商等作为重要培育方向。从招股书中可以看到，2020上半年快手线上营销服务收入71.6亿元，而2019年同期只有22.2亿元，同比增幅高达223%；占总收入的比重提升至28.3%，而2017到2019年，快手线上营销服务收入分别为3.9亿元、16.7亿元和74.2亿元，占总收入的比重分别为4.7%、8.2%和19%。</p><p>此外，快手电商业务自2018年推出后，也实现了高速增长。截至2020年6月30日的半年内，电商交易总额（GMV）达到1096亿元。然而，这项在培育中的业务还并未给快手带来足够收入。招股书中，电商、网络游戏、增值服务等被合并计入“其他收入”，“其他收入”在2020上半年约8.1亿元，占总收入比例仅为3.2%；2018至2019两年，包括电商在内的其他收入分别为0.2亿元和2.6亿元，占比更是可忽略不计。据此计算，2020上半年收入/GMV，快手在电商中的抽成比例应远低于0.74%。此前电商业务被看作是短视频的未来，但由此看来，快手电商业务可能陷入了“叫好不叫座”的局面。</p><p>总得来说，快手仍然是一间收入高度依赖于直播的公司，这给快手带来了一些优势，比如更好的互动性；招股书显示，快手短视频和直播点赞、转发及评论数为1.63亿，此前有咨询公司统计，相同播放量下快手的互动量远高于抖音。</p><p>另外，从去年开始，快手重点培育线上营销服务及电商，为此，快手试图改变对私域流量的依赖，加大介入公域流量运营。这些都直接导致营销费用的激增。招股书数据显示，2020上半年快手推广及广告开支132.8亿元，同比大幅增长364%，占总收入比重达到52.5%；相比之下，2017至2019年的三年间，快手此费用分别为12.6亿元、40.8亿元和94.2亿元，占比为15.2%、20.1%和24.1%，涨幅相对温和。</p><p>对此，快手在招股书中进一步阐释，推广及广告活动的增加，主要是由于推广快手极速版及其他应用程序的营销开支及品牌营销活动开支增加所致。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3de66b1da0aeda30a51d3e6d15e8a916\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"702\"></p><p>从效果来看，线上营销业务的已获得明显增长，而电商收入仍在探索中。</p><p><b>“补课”广告与流量</b></p><p>快手依赖于直播的收入结构，与抖音正相反。此前，有咨询公司分析数据显示，抖音则有90%的收入来自广告营销等业务，直播、电商收入占比仅约为10%。2019年抖音的广告收入为600亿元，而快手同期收入为74亿元，不到前者八分之一；抖音今年广告的预期目标为900亿元，而快手的预期为130亿元，相差仍然巨大。</p><p>这背后，是双方流量形式的不同。快手基于创作者的私域流量较强，但基于平台运营的公域流量较弱。</p><p>较好的私域流量，为快手带来了好的用户黏性，也为创作者提供更好的变现渠道。招股书显示，快手每位日活用户日均使用时长为85分钟以上，2020上半年已有2000万人在快手获得收入，26%的月活用户，同时是快手的创作者。</p><p>但劣势也由此而来，抖音在用户活跃度方面后来居上。招股书显示，截至今年6月30日，快手平均日活跃用户（含应用及小程序）3.02亿人次，平均月活（含应用及小程序）为7.76亿人。相比之下，抖音公布截止今年8月的日活跃用户数量是6亿（含抖音火山版），考虑到短视频的流量增长已然趋缓，可以认为抖音的日活已接近快手的两倍。</p><p>私域流量成为快手商业化的紧箍咒。从2019年开始，快手努力改变这一点，开始加大对公域流量运营的介入，更大力度的争夺流量；同时快手APP改版，推出和抖音一样上下滑动的浏览机制，投入公域流量的怀抱。</p><p>其中，最有代表性的是游戏领域，2019年7月快手推出“百万游戏创作者扶持计划”，通过短视频流量倒流，扶植腰部和尾部创作者，试图与<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DOYU\">斗鱼</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/HUYA\">虎牙</a>等直播行业玩家争抢市场。</p><p>短期来看效果是显著的，仅4个月后，11月底快手游戏直播日活5100万，游戏短视频日活7700万，对比扶持政策推出前今年6月首次公布的游戏数据，两项目分别增加1600万和2100万。然而，快手短视频向游戏业务的引流已然见顶。Quest Mobile报告显示，行业端，手游与短视频用户重合度超过60%。而具体到快手，根据媒体报道，快手游戏与短视频业务的用户重合度已经高达56%。</p><p>由此可见，通过介入运营，快手短期内能够实现流量和广告营销收入的追赶，但长期来看已然船大难掉头。如今，短视频领域流量增长趋缓，快手要在这一层面实现追赶缺乏抓手；而在总流量及平台可控的公域流量均不及对手的情况下，要在广告收入上实现追赶并不容易。</p><p><b>电商能否成为快手的优势？</b></p><p>电商或是弥补快手缺憾更具可能性的方向。</p><p>事实上，私域流量给予了快手独特的商业优势，即“带货”。在电商带货方面，2019年，抖音的GMV为100亿元，快手则达到了350亿元；对比历史数据，招股书中快手2020上半年GMV达到1096亿元人民币，已是去年全数据年的三倍，增长十分迅速，这被认为是快手领先于抖音的方向。</p><p>眼下，短视频的用户增速其实已经进入了瓶颈期。根据QuestMobile、CNNIC等数据或报告显示，短视频用户规模发展进入平缓期，自用户数量突破8亿之后就开始呈增长下滑的趋势，2019年上半年的增长率仅为-0.1%。除了人口基数的限制之外，市场上愈发丰富的产品形态也分散了短视频的注意力。尤其是在疫情之后，在线内容品类迅速崛起，都说明短视频将不再是快抖唯一的杀手锏。</p><p>在一个增长见顶的领域内，抖音与快手更直接的短兵相接将到来。毫无疑问，抖音是快手最大的威胁。双方除了独占短视频行业两大鳌头之外，在直播、电商、广告等业务的构成模式上也几乎相同。</p><p>在电商领域，抖音依然是步步紧逼的状态。今年7月，抖音与<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/002024\">苏宁易购</a>达成合作，全量商品入驻抖音小店。国庆节之后，抖音直播间停止对第三方电商平台链接的支持。显然，抖音也同样在搭建属于自己的电商平台。</p><p>即便快手的电商规模在现阶段高于抖音，但快手也在招股书中承认——快手在电商行业的部分竞争对手，可能拥有更长的从业时间、更高的品牌知名度、更好的供应商关系、更庞大的客户群、更高的地区渗透率等，这均有可能导致重要客户的流失继而对公司的营收产生负面影响。</p><p>而对于广告营销，快手也并未放弃追赶。未来相当长的时间内，广告显然是一大盈利版块。根据艾瑞咨询数据显示，通过短视频及直播平台的移动广告市场规模于2019年达到人民币814亿元，预计在2025年将达到人民币4653亿元，复合年增长率为33.7%。更重要的是，广告业务的毛利率非常高，以<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00700\">腾讯</a>为例，在近五年内，其网络广告毛利率最高在50%左右，最低也有30%。</p><p>在此情况下，双方在资本市场的较量更为关键。字节跳动要将抖音要分拆上市的消息传出后，快手加速IPO。上市所带来的优势是降低融资成本，储备更多资金来争夺市场。因此，谁更先成为“短视频第一股”，则能在日后广告营销、电商新业务赛道上获得更多弹药。</p><p>早在3年前，快手创始人宿华被问到是否有上市计划时，他的回答的是：“当前阶段，快手的主要目标仍是持续提升产品体验、服务更多人群。让用户自然形成互动关系，也让产品自然生长。”彼时的短视频行业刚刚兴起，浪潮虽猛，但商业化前景尚不十分明确。</p><p>随着互联网时代的发展，UGC内容开始崛起，网红孵化成常规形态，以及直播电商的势头越来越猛，短视频的盈利模式也越来越清晰。广告营销、知识付费、商品外链成了短视频最常见的变现模式。</p><p>因此，快手和抖音都到了寻找新的发展阶段的时候，双方也开始面临着更大的市场竞争压力。</p><p>这一年，抖音通过内容品类的扩增开始打出下沉市场，其抖音火山版在上半年达到了1.7亿的月活，产品定位精准且行动力强。而快手试图通过签约周杰伦、郑爽、张雨绮能明星，打入相对“上流”的用户市场，但其明星生态的构建也完全不输抖音。</p><p>这自然是公域流量的效果，凭借着强大且低成本的信息流，抖音的短视频拥有了更强的渗透率与覆盖率，传播力度更强。<b>纵然快手的私域流量诞生了大量高黏性、强互动的用户，但最终反映在财务报表上的，并非是社交生态而是消费生态。</b></p><p>与淘宝、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JD\">京东</a>等专业电商平台相比，信息流加持下的快抖形成了短视频内容创作→网红孵化 →直播带货→商品橱窗一条龙的电商服务，这在未来也将迎来更多的可能性。</p><p>短视频和直播平台的用户需求多样性自然地产生了许多变现机会，包括但不仅限于网络游戏、在线教育和本地服务。</p><p>根据企查查信息显示，今年，快手先后投资了王牌互娱、英雄体育vspn，收购ytg电竞俱乐部进军王者荣耀kpl，意图扩招电竞及游戏版图。另外，快手也战略投资了3000万美金注资火花思维，加码教育投资。字节跳动今年则投资了5家网文平台以及进军在线教育业务。由此来看，快手和抖音实现IPO之后，其涉足的各个行业领域都将受到一定的波动。</p><p>除了业务模式的不同，快手是一家独立的公司，而抖音则背靠字节跳动，背后有比较强大的协同能力，所以，未来快手若想弯道超车，在与<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00700\">腾讯</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JD\">京东</a>等的战略协同上可能也需要进一步加强。</p><p>另外，随着短视频和直播这两种产品形态的普及，已经成为微信、淘宝等社交、电商平台的标配，未来抖音、快手面临的竞争范围也将越来越宽泛。</p>","source":"lsy1594120786923","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>揭开快手的底层面纱：成在直播，败在广告，电商存在感低</title>\n<style 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margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n揭开快手的底层面纱：成在直播，败在广告，电商存在感低\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2020-11-06 09:49 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/xsztOmsen8hVg-2AlafIsQ><strong>商业数据派</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>抖音与快手IPO赛跑的第一回合已见分晓，11月5日晚，快手率先向港股递交招股书。从招股书可以看出，由于收入高度依赖于直播，主播分成成本高，因此快手的毛利率始终难以突破。这背后，相较于抖音，快手强于私域流量，因此目前在直播、电商上更具优势；而抖音强于公域流量，因此更受广告主青睐，且用户量更大，日活已接近快手的两倍。随着短视频流量增长见顶，双方将在未来业务上短兵相接。但要培育新业务，双方在资本市场的...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/xsztOmsen8hVg-2AlafIsQ\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0ad850871e322ba2001305999d0855f8","relate_stocks":{"01024":"快手-W"},"source_url":"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/xsztOmsen8hVg-2AlafIsQ","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1172613833","content_text":"抖音与快手IPO赛跑的第一回合已见分晓，11月5日晚，快手率先向港股递交招股书。从招股书可以看出，由于收入高度依赖于直播，主播分成成本高，因此快手的毛利率始终难以突破。这背后，相较于抖音，快手强于私域流量，因此目前在直播、电商上更具优势；而抖音强于公域流量，因此更受广告主青睐，且用户量更大，日活已接近快手的两倍。随着短视频流量增长见顶，双方将在未来业务上短兵相接。但要培育新业务，双方在资本市场的较量更为关键，先成为“短视频第一股”，有望能在日后广告营销、电商新业务赛道上获得更多弹药。未来短视频行业，及两巨头竞争路向何方，从快手的招股书中可窥见一二。短视频巨头快手，竟是一家“直播公司”从招股书中可以看出，2020年上半年快手实现收入253亿元，同比增长48%，仍在高速增长中，但增速已经明显下降。2017年、2018年、2019年的总收入分别为83亿元、203亿元、391亿元，据此计算2018和2019年的收入增幅约为145%和93%。与此同时，快手的毛利率稳定但并不算高。根据招股书，2020年上半年，快手毛利率为34.3%。相比之下，2017年至2019年快手毛利率分别为31.3%、28.6%和36.1%，一直稳定在一定区间内。毛利率提升受限，源于快手对直播的依赖。从招股书可以看到，快手的收入来自于三部分，直播、线上营销和其他业务。其中，2020上半年，快手直播收入173.5亿元，占据总收入的比例为68.5%；而这已经是近年来的最低值，2017年至2019年，快手直播收入一路从79.5亿元提升至314.4亿元，三年间直播分别贡献了快手95.3%、91.7%和80.4%的收入快手直播的主要收入方式与其他平台类似，主要来自向观众销售虚拟物品，用途是“打赏”主播。因此由于此模式下较高的分成，限制了快手的毛利率。从招股书中可以看出，2020上半年快手主播的收入分成及相关税项为97.9亿元，占总收入的比例为38.7%。此前数年间，2017到2019快手主播的收入分成及相关税项为44亿元、104亿元和181亿元，占比分别为52.7%、51.2%和46.4%。其中，2020年上半年快手直播收入占比下降，这背后，快手正将线上营销和电商等作为重要培育方向。从招股书中可以看到，2020上半年快手线上营销服务收入71.6亿元，而2019年同期只有22.2亿元，同比增幅高达223%；占总收入的比重提升至28.3%，而2017到2019年，快手线上营销服务收入分别为3.9亿元、16.7亿元和74.2亿元，占总收入的比重分别为4.7%、8.2%和19%。此外，快手电商业务自2018年推出后，也实现了高速增长。截至2020年6月30日的半年内，电商交易总额（GMV）达到1096亿元。然而，这项在培育中的业务还并未给快手带来足够收入。招股书中，电商、网络游戏、增值服务等被合并计入“其他收入”，“其他收入”在2020上半年约8.1亿元，占总收入比例仅为3.2%；2018至2019两年，包括电商在内的其他收入分别为0.2亿元和2.6亿元，占比更是可忽略不计。据此计算，2020上半年收入/GMV，快手在电商中的抽成比例应远低于0.74%。此前电商业务被看作是短视频的未来，但由此看来，快手电商业务可能陷入了“叫好不叫座”的局面。总得来说，快手仍然是一间收入高度依赖于直播的公司，这给快手带来了一些优势，比如更好的互动性；招股书显示，快手短视频和直播点赞、转发及评论数为1.63亿，此前有咨询公司统计，相同播放量下快手的互动量远高于抖音。另外，从去年开始，快手重点培育线上营销服务及电商，为此，快手试图改变对私域流量的依赖，加大介入公域流量运营。这些都直接导致营销费用的激增。招股书数据显示，2020上半年快手推广及广告开支132.8亿元，同比大幅增长364%，占总收入比重达到52.5%；相比之下，2017至2019年的三年间，快手此费用分别为12.6亿元、40.8亿元和94.2亿元，占比为15.2%、20.1%和24.1%，涨幅相对温和。对此，快手在招股书中进一步阐释，推广及广告活动的增加，主要是由于推广快手极速版及其他应用程序的营销开支及品牌营销活动开支增加所致。从效果来看，线上营销业务的已获得明显增长，而电商收入仍在探索中。“补课”广告与流量快手依赖于直播的收入结构，与抖音正相反。此前，有咨询公司分析数据显示，抖音则有90%的收入来自广告营销等业务，直播、电商收入占比仅约为10%。2019年抖音的广告收入为600亿元，而快手同期收入为74亿元，不到前者八分之一；抖音今年广告的预期目标为900亿元，而快手的预期为130亿元，相差仍然巨大。这背后，是双方流量形式的不同。快手基于创作者的私域流量较强，但基于平台运营的公域流量较弱。较好的私域流量，为快手带来了好的用户黏性，也为创作者提供更好的变现渠道。招股书显示，快手每位日活用户日均使用时长为85分钟以上，2020上半年已有2000万人在快手获得收入，26%的月活用户，同时是快手的创作者。但劣势也由此而来，抖音在用户活跃度方面后来居上。招股书显示，截至今年6月30日，快手平均日活跃用户（含应用及小程序）3.02亿人次，平均月活（含应用及小程序）为7.76亿人。相比之下，抖音公布截止今年8月的日活跃用户数量是6亿（含抖音火山版），考虑到短视频的流量增长已然趋缓，可以认为抖音的日活已接近快手的两倍。私域流量成为快手商业化的紧箍咒。从2019年开始，快手努力改变这一点，开始加大对公域流量运营的介入，更大力度的争夺流量；同时快手APP改版，推出和抖音一样上下滑动的浏览机制，投入公域流量的怀抱。其中，最有代表性的是游戏领域，2019年7月快手推出“百万游戏创作者扶持计划”，通过短视频流量倒流，扶植腰部和尾部创作者，试图与斗鱼、虎牙等直播行业玩家争抢市场。短期来看效果是显著的，仅4个月后，11月底快手游戏直播日活5100万，游戏短视频日活7700万，对比扶持政策推出前今年6月首次公布的游戏数据，两项目分别增加1600万和2100万。然而，快手短视频向游戏业务的引流已然见顶。Quest Mobile报告显示，行业端，手游与短视频用户重合度超过60%。而具体到快手，根据媒体报道，快手游戏与短视频业务的用户重合度已经高达56%。由此可见，通过介入运营，快手短期内能够实现流量和广告营销收入的追赶，但长期来看已然船大难掉头。如今，短视频领域流量增长趋缓，快手要在这一层面实现追赶缺乏抓手；而在总流量及平台可控的公域流量均不及对手的情况下，要在广告收入上实现追赶并不容易。电商能否成为快手的优势？电商或是弥补快手缺憾更具可能性的方向。事实上，私域流量给予了快手独特的商业优势，即“带货”。在电商带货方面，2019年，抖音的GMV为100亿元，快手则达到了350亿元；对比历史数据，招股书中快手2020上半年GMV达到1096亿元人民币，已是去年全数据年的三倍，增长十分迅速，这被认为是快手领先于抖音的方向。眼下，短视频的用户增速其实已经进入了瓶颈期。根据QuestMobile、CNNIC等数据或报告显示，短视频用户规模发展进入平缓期，自用户数量突破8亿之后就开始呈增长下滑的趋势，2019年上半年的增长率仅为-0.1%。除了人口基数的限制之外，市场上愈发丰富的产品形态也分散了短视频的注意力。尤其是在疫情之后，在线内容品类迅速崛起，都说明短视频将不再是快抖唯一的杀手锏。在一个增长见顶的领域内，抖音与快手更直接的短兵相接将到来。毫无疑问，抖音是快手最大的威胁。双方除了独占短视频行业两大鳌头之外，在直播、电商、广告等业务的构成模式上也几乎相同。在电商领域，抖音依然是步步紧逼的状态。今年7月，抖音与苏宁易购达成合作，全量商品入驻抖音小店。国庆节之后，抖音直播间停止对第三方电商平台链接的支持。显然，抖音也同样在搭建属于自己的电商平台。即便快手的电商规模在现阶段高于抖音，但快手也在招股书中承认——快手在电商行业的部分竞争对手，可能拥有更长的从业时间、更高的品牌知名度、更好的供应商关系、更庞大的客户群、更高的地区渗透率等，这均有可能导致重要客户的流失继而对公司的营收产生负面影响。而对于广告营销，快手也并未放弃追赶。未来相当长的时间内，广告显然是一大盈利版块。根据艾瑞咨询数据显示，通过短视频及直播平台的移动广告市场规模于2019年达到人民币814亿元，预计在2025年将达到人民币4653亿元，复合年增长率为33.7%。更重要的是，广告业务的毛利率非常高，以腾讯为例，在近五年内，其网络广告毛利率最高在50%左右，最低也有30%。在此情况下，双方在资本市场的较量更为关键。字节跳动要将抖音要分拆上市的消息传出后，快手加速IPO。上市所带来的优势是降低融资成本，储备更多资金来争夺市场。因此，谁更先成为“短视频第一股”，则能在日后广告营销、电商新业务赛道上获得更多弹药。早在3年前，快手创始人宿华被问到是否有上市计划时，他的回答的是：“当前阶段，快手的主要目标仍是持续提升产品体验、服务更多人群。让用户自然形成互动关系，也让产品自然生长。”彼时的短视频行业刚刚兴起，浪潮虽猛，但商业化前景尚不十分明确。随着互联网时代的发展，UGC内容开始崛起，网红孵化成常规形态，以及直播电商的势头越来越猛，短视频的盈利模式也越来越清晰。广告营销、知识付费、商品外链成了短视频最常见的变现模式。因此，快手和抖音都到了寻找新的发展阶段的时候，双方也开始面临着更大的市场竞争压力。这一年，抖音通过内容品类的扩增开始打出下沉市场，其抖音火山版在上半年达到了1.7亿的月活，产品定位精准且行动力强。而快手试图通过签约周杰伦、郑爽、张雨绮能明星，打入相对“上流”的用户市场，但其明星生态的构建也完全不输抖音。这自然是公域流量的效果，凭借着强大且低成本的信息流，抖音的短视频拥有了更强的渗透率与覆盖率，传播力度更强。纵然快手的私域流量诞生了大量高黏性、强互动的用户，但最终反映在财务报表上的，并非是社交生态而是消费生态。与淘宝、京东等专业电商平台相比，信息流加持下的快抖形成了短视频内容创作→网红孵化 →直播带货→商品橱窗一条龙的电商服务，这在未来也将迎来更多的可能性。短视频和直播平台的用户需求多样性自然地产生了许多变现机会，包括但不仅限于网络游戏、在线教育和本地服务。根据企查查信息显示，今年，快手先后投资了王牌互娱、英雄体育vspn，收购ytg电竞俱乐部进军王者荣耀kpl，意图扩招电竞及游戏版图。另外，快手也战略投资了3000万美金注资火花思维，加码教育投资。字节跳动今年则投资了5家网文平台以及进军在线教育业务。由此来看，快手和抖音实现IPO之后，其涉足的各个行业领域都将受到一定的波动。除了业务模式的不同，快手是一家独立的公司，而抖音则背靠字节跳动，背后有比较强大的协同能力，所以，未来快手若想弯道超车，在与腾讯、京东等的战略协同上可能也需要进一步加强。另外，随着短视频和直播这两种产品形态的普及，已经成为微信、淘宝等社交、电商平台的标配，未来抖音、快手面临的竞争范围也将越来越宽泛。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":729,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":306136998,"gmtCreate":1604313109514,"gmtModify":1703832464781,"author":{"id":"3550617241654213","authorId":"3550617241654213","name":"神猜","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/37effa476c7b4e3e79cf906e58e560f4","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"准备割韭菜了","listText":"准备割韭菜了","text":"准备割韭菜了","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/306136998","repostId":"1150582546","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1150582546","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据，旨在帮助投资者理解世界，做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1604311051,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1150582546?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2020-11-02 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17:57</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>蚂蚁集团据悉在香港暗盘市场交易价格有50%的溢价。</p><p>蚂蚁集团将于本周四挂牌，其散户的暗盘交易场要在周三收市后才进行，但机构投资者已率先交易买卖。</p><p>此前机构投资者之间就蚂蚁的暗盘交易今日录得3宗成交，成交价分别为108港元、115港元及120港元，较招股价80港元，升35%、43.75%及50%。</p>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ec15db671b1849dcabfc298e04ec99f5","relate_stocks":{"06688":"蚂蚁集团"},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1150582546","content_text":"蚂蚁集团据悉在香港暗盘市场交易价格有50%的溢价。蚂蚁集团将于本周四挂牌，其散户的暗盘交易场要在周三收市后才进行，但机构投资者已率先交易买卖。此前机构投资者之间就蚂蚁的暗盘交易今日录得3宗成交，成交价分别为108港元、115港元及120港元，较招股价80港元，升35%、43.75%及50%。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":850,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3527667803686145","authorId":"3527667803686145","name":"社区成长助手","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2b7c7106b5c0c8b0037faa67439d898f","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"content":"终于等到了您的初发帖[比心][比心]发帖时关联相关股票或者相关话题，可以获得更多曝光哦～如果您想创作优质文章，请查看老虎社区创作指引","text":"终于等到了您的初发帖[比心][比心]发帖时关联相关股票或者相关话题，可以获得更多曝光哦～如果您想创作优质文章，请查看老虎社区创作指引","html":"终于等到了您的初发帖[比心][比心]发帖时关联相关股票或者相关话题，可以获得更多曝光哦～如果您想创作优质文章，请查看老虎社区创作指引"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":827763125,"gmtCreate":1634524346246,"gmtModify":1634524346246,"author":{"id":"3550617241654213","authorId":"3550617241654213","name":"神猜","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/37effa476c7b4e3e79cf906e58e560f4","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a 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17:57</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>蚂蚁集团据悉在香港暗盘市场交易价格有50%的溢价。</p><p>蚂蚁集团将于本周四挂牌，其散户的暗盘交易场要在周三收市后才进行，但机构投资者已率先交易买卖。</p><p>此前机构投资者之间就蚂蚁的暗盘交易今日录得3宗成交，成交价分别为108港元、115港元及120港元，较招股价80港元，升35%、43.75%及50%。</p>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ec15db671b1849dcabfc298e04ec99f5","relate_stocks":{"06688":"蚂蚁集团"},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1150582546","content_text":"蚂蚁集团据悉在香港暗盘市场交易价格有50%的溢价。蚂蚁集团将于本周四挂牌，其散户的暗盘交易场要在周三收市后才进行，但机构投资者已率先交易买卖。此前机构投资者之间就蚂蚁的暗盘交易今日录得3宗成交，成交价分别为108港元、115港元及120港元，较招股价80港元，升35%、43.75%及50%。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":850,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3527667803686145","authorId":"3527667803686145","name":"社区成长助手","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2b7c7106b5c0c8b0037faa67439d898f","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"content":"终于等到了您的初发帖[比心][比心]发帖时关联相关股票或者相关话题，可以获得更多曝光哦～如果您想创作优质文章，请查看老虎社区创作指引","text":"终于等到了您的初发帖[比心][比心]发帖时关联相关股票或者相关话题，可以获得更多曝光哦～如果您想创作优质文章，请查看老虎社区创作指引","html":"终于等到了您的初发帖[比心][比心]发帖时关联相关股票或者相关话题，可以获得更多曝光哦～如果您想创作优质文章，请查看老虎社区创作指引"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":662850892,"gmtCreate":1666347039216,"gmtModify":1666347040291,"author":{"id":"3550617241654213","authorId":"3550617241654213","name":"神猜","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/37effa476c7b4e3e79cf906e58e560f4","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a 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