荒芜边界的个人主页 - 老虎社区

荒芜边界

荒芜边界

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IP属地：浙江

92关注

4粉丝

6主题

0勋章

2023-12-15

$陆金所(LU)$ 合股又要暴跌吗？

2023-11-07

$一起教育科技(YQ)$ 有人可以告诉我，为什么还不退市吗？

2021-10-05

$海洋石油投资(MARPS)$钱是少了点。

2021-06-03

$一起教育科技(YQ)$完蛋，向一元冲刺了。

2021-03-23

这段时间行情不行啊

2021-03-21

长久等待解套。

2021-03-17

昨晚美股不行，今天大A可以

2021-03-16

A股今天会小涨一下，回点血吧

2021-03-15

还是比大A靠谱

2021-03-12

欧洲还有存在感？

抱歉，原内容已删除

2021-03-12

欧洲还有存在感？

抱歉，原内容已删除

2021-03-12

股市变化快，$秦淮数据(CD)$

2021-01-30

都是结果论成败。

抱歉，原内容已删除

2020-12-31

$AMC院线(AMC)$一元等你。

2020-06-02

$凤凰新媒体(FENG)$美股第一亏献给凤凰新媒体，枉我买了这么多年的会员

去老虎APP查看更多动态

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14:09","market":"sh","language":"zh","title":"A股和美股都活成了对方的样子","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2107929467","media":"起朱楼宴宾客","summary":"这几天最热门的行业新闻有且只有两条。\n大洋彼岸是美股散户大战机构，在游戏驿站这支“垃圾股”上散户们团结一致连续逼空，取得了“决定性的胜利”，不但自己赚得盆满钵满，还打得一干华尔街大佬满地求饶，然后在昨","content":"<p>这几天最热门的行业新闻有且只有两条。</p>\n<p>大洋彼岸是美股散户大战机构，在<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GME\">游戏驿站</a>这支“垃圾股”上散户们团结一致连续逼空，取得了“决定性的胜利”，不但自己赚得盆满钵满，还打得一干华尔街大佬满地求饶，然后在昨晚顺利崩盘了一次。在散户聚集地wsb论坛里，大家恨不得把对冲基金大佬们啖肉喋血，各种口号和小火箭刷到飞起，群情激愤热火朝天。</p>\n<p>中国这边厢却是基民们决定为易方达的基金经理张坤成立后援会，取名和娱乐圈顶流蔡徐坤的粉丝团同名的ikun。不但<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WB\">微博</a>上的超话#易方达张坤#阅读量超过1500万，而且去看超话下的评论和发言，都是在为机构大佬五体投地摇旗呐喊的粉丝，端得一派欢乐祥和的氛围。</p>\n<p>打我投身金融行业起，就一直被前辈们循循教导，<b>“A股是散户市，美股是机构市，A股见顶要看散户啥时候跑步进场，美股见顶是要看机构啥时候一致看多，可千万别搞反了。”</b></p>\n<p>万万没想到，本以为资本市场的投资者结构变化是一条单行道，却在魔幻的2021见证了历史——</p>\n<p>怎么一夜间，A股和美股都突然活成了对方的样子？</p>\n<p>1</p>\n<p>如果经历过07到08年A股牛市的“老人”们，可能会记得一个叫做“带头大哥777”的大V。</p>\n<p>当年这位大哥有多火呢？和现在的顶流瓜可以搞垮微博服务器一样，当年带头大哥的文章能把<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NTES\">网易</a>博客搞宕机，然后粉丝们进不去他的个人主页还抱怨——</p>\n<blockquote>\n “鞋都挤掉了，还是进不去呀！”\n</blockquote>\n<p>2007年5月，“带头大哥777”的博客点击量已经突破了1000万，超过了当年的“博客女王”徐静蕾，成为“中国第一博”。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3c211e49c7d790b424612188ea3ebf70\" tg-width=\"280\" tg-height=\"400\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>那年头，凡是炒股的年轻人大多听过他的名号，我也不例外——限定年龄是因为那时还只有年轻人上网讨论股票，老股民大多守在券商营业部里。</p>\n<p>虽然直觉告诉我一个人怎么可能每天都能预测准第二天的大盘点位，以及哪些个股能涨停，但总是忍不住手痒去看看他都说了些什么，还偶尔会跟着下个单赚口汤喝。</p>\n<p>那可真的是一个<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/QC7.SI\">全民</a>皆股的时代。</p>\n<p>虽然公募基金在那两年也得到了诞生以来的第一次爆发式增长，但更多的人还是宁愿相信自己“勤劳的双手”和“智慧的双眼”，排队去营业部开户后，跟随满天飞的消息和旁人唾沫飞溅中的推荐，按手买入自己人生的第一支股票。</p>\n<p>当年的股民里流行一首歌叫《死了都不卖》，歌词里有一句迄今我还记得很清楚，</p>\n<blockquote>\n “我不听别人安排，凭感觉就买入，赚钱就会很愉快。”\n</blockquote>\n<p>如果看看现在美国WSB论坛里的帖子，简直让人产生了yesterday once more的错觉。</p>\n<p>前一秒呼吁大家等GameStop股票涨到1000美元再卖的帖子刚获得万赞，下一秒已经有人喊出一千块也不要卖，这股票只要我们不卖就会一直涨（this stock will stay going as long as we dont sell！）</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6de068c2281bb5d852e5f20aff2c55e6\" tg-width=\"656\" tg-height=\"260\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>昨天中午在看CNBC针对美股此次散户逼空事件的“带头大哥”Chamath的访谈时，也依稀可以看到了当年带头大哥777的“风采”。</p>\n<p>虽然Chamath对专业知识和诡辩技巧更加精通，可立的依然是“散户保护神”的形象，轰出来的炮都是类似“凭什么量化基金不看基本面做投资就可以，散户不看基本面投资就要被批判？凭什么对冲基金只开放给大户买，而散户赚钱了就要被调查被限制？”</p>\n<p>而当年带头大哥777除了那张神气非凡的头像照之外，就属放在个人主页上的经典语录最让人印象深刻了——</p>\n<blockquote>\n “股票就是我的王国，散户就是我的兄弟。有我在你们就可以藐视一切机构，藐视一切主力，他们在我剑下除了颤抖什么都不会。”\n</blockquote>\n<p>说实话，我觉得带头大哥777的话还更霸气一些。反正都是无脑跟，这短短几句话不是更让人有一种热血沸腾，想要跟着他打土豪分田地的冲动么？</p>\n<p>2</p>\n<p>就在美国股市正在翻拍中国15年前的那场“散户牛”剧情时，中国市场却在上演美国40年前那场由公募基金主导的<b>“机构牛”</b>。</p>\n<p>其实张坤和他掌管的易方达蓝筹精选基金此次的出圈一点都不让人意外，毕竟美国的那个年代也有一战成名的彼得·林奇和他的麦哲伦基金。</p>\n<p>插句题外话，麦哲伦基金这个名字，可比现在<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CHN\">中国基金</a>这些个什么蓝筹精选啦先进制造之类的名字精彩多了。</p>\n<p>彼得·林奇的故事已经被太多人讲述，简而言之，就是他接管麦哲伦基金的那些年就跟开了挂似的，大盘小涨它大涨，大盘下跌它也大涨，连美股遭遇大崩盘的1987年，基金净值都增长了1%。</p>\n<p>那资金还能不蜂拥而入吗？</p>\n<p>到彼得·林奇退休时的1990年，麦哲伦基金的资产规模已经从几千万美元膨胀到了140亿美元——是的，和张坤创下的千亿规模一样。</p>\n<p>不过可别忘了，那是30年前的一千亿。</p>\n<p>麦哲伦基金的背后，是一整个美国主动管理型公募基金的大时代，而麦哲伦基金所在的富达投资，甚至专门成立了名叫<b>“明星基金经理学院”</b>的机构来培养优秀的年轻人。</p>\n<p>再说句题外话，其实美国主动管理型公募基金的大时代和所谓美股的“漂亮50”并没有直接的关联，后者是在70年代产生并就破灭掉的一个概念。而美国的基金经理们是通过扎实的基本面研究和蒸蒸日上的美国经济，共同托起了一个万亿级的基金行业。</p>\n<p>不过，当年将麦哲伦基金捧上神坛的散户们，在彼得·林奇退休后逐渐发现这只基金再也没有了能持续跑赢市场的魔力，于是“扯乎”就成了一致的选择。</p>\n<p>麦哲伦基金的规模从2000年巅峰时的1100亿美金一路下滑，到 2018年已经缩水了90%，这甚至拖累整个富达投资的市场份额都接近腰斩。</p>\n<p>先锋领航的约翰·博格后来在书中是这么评价麦哲伦基金的——</p>\n<blockquote>\n ＂靠刀剑生活的人，必死在刀剑下。He who lives by the sword shall die by the sword.＂\n</blockquote>\n<p>中国也有类似的表达，成也萧何（散户），败也萧何（散户）。</p>\n<p>3</p>\n<p>那么，为什么美股好像突然变成了“散户话事”，而A股却成了机构投资者的天堂？难道真的是一夜之间，中美投资者的理念出现了天翻地覆的变化吗？</p>\n<p>这显然是不可能的。不过两者深层次的原因倒是殊途同归，都与这个时代有关。</p>\n<p>先说A股。</p>\n<p>先把个人的一个判断放在这，不一定对——在中国版的401K养老账户落地，国际投资者（而不是假“北水”）将中国作为发达资本市场对待之前，中国股市都不会真正成为一个以机构投资者为主导的、成熟理性的市场。</p>\n<p>因此，在这两年所谓“个人投资基金化”的背后，并不是中国的个人投资者真的成熟了，而依然是亮眼的赚钱效应在起作用。</p>\n<p>因为对于个人投资者来说，如果没有强制养老储蓄或者其他的限制条件，其实投资很简单，那就是什么样的资产能赚钱，而且在过去相当一段时间都证明能持续赚钱，那就“买他”。</p>\n<p>而这一轮牛市中的公募基金，已经用接近五年的时间证明了自己的赚钱能力——是的，不是两年，而是五年。</p>\n<p>白马龙头们走出第一波独立行情其实是在2017年。那一年<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/601012\">隆基股份</a>涨了170%，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/002415\">海康威视</a>涨了150%，而<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600519\">贵州茅台</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600309\">万华化学</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/601318\">中国平安</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/000333\">美的集团</a>等一批大市值股票也纷纷翻了倍。</p>\n<p>2018年看似熊市，但如果真的细数，会发现白马龙头在那一年的跌幅其实非常有限，和中小创们遭受腰斩的重创完全不可同日而语，所以持有白马龙头们的公募基金其实回撤也并不大。</p>\n<p>而在接下来的2019和2020，这些龙头公司和他们背后的公募资金共同迎来了爆发期，这让买基金的赚钱效应比起自己买股票的赚钱效应好了太多。<b>而当买基金-追抱团股-净值涨-再买基金成为了一个正反馈之后，剩下的事情就好办了。</b></p>\n<p>当然，赚钱效应只是一个契机，这一轮的基金热还有另外一个非常重要的原因，那就是互联网时代的推波助澜。</p>\n<p>虽然07年和15年的牛市同样有互联网的加持，但都还停留在干巴巴的文字时代，哪里像现在，随便打开<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DYIN\">抖音</a>、微博甚至是小红书，关于如何买基金、投基金的视频比比皆是。</p>\n<p>这几年的大V、媒体乃至营销号们动用了十八般武艺来“推销”基金，无论是直播还是访谈，抑或是各种所谓的线上理财课，让买基金这种本应理性的投资决策，从一种“思考”变成了“感官刺激”。</p>\n<p>当然，还顺带规避了当年带头大哥777违规荐股的法律风险。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f6a1310a4865a98b6881a0d269c455ff\" tg-width=\"1000\" tg-height=\"2048\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>随便什么时候打开支付宝，都会有大量的理财直播跃入眼前</p>\n<p>更何况，基金公司们在这一波牛市中变得“聪明”了。他们巧妙地将买冷冰冰的基金产品这件事，转化成了投资一个个鲜活的基金经理。</p>\n<p>虽然上一轮牛市也流传着王亚伟、王茹远之类的传说，但对于普通基民而言，哪里像这一轮市场的基金经理们，生生被市场部掰成了直播网红的样子——无论他们长得磕碜也好，帅气也好，讲的朴实无华也好，能说会道也好，都统统需要出来“接客”。</p>\n<p>于是买基金这件事，对于基民，尤其是85后和90后基民而言，都不再是单纯的看一个代码、读一张报表和跟踪一个净值，而是在听了基金经理的投资理念、看了他的现场分享或是读了他的访谈记录后，产生了更多的真实触感，甚至是情感连接。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/80c8d3f54c0d4498b0fb8782f6a1bf2b\" tg-width=\"1000\" tg-height=\"644\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8983615647d17635b59520280e6ee420\" tg-width=\"1000\" tg-height=\"667\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>上图和下图分别是过去和现在同一家基金公司的线下广告，看出差别了吗？</p>\n<p>大概是嫌把基金变成带有个人IP的商品还不够吧，以支付宝为代表的基金销售平台还在绞尽脑汁的让买基金变成一件可以十秒钟之内完成的事情。</p>\n<p>如果是在十几年前买过基金的人都知道，买一个产品是要在银行柜台填无数单子的，而现如今，在APP里投一只基金和在淘宝上买一个化妆品，或者在美团上叫一个外卖差不多容易。甚至有平台推出了在不同的基金之间无缝切换的功能，让基金投资的“全生命周期管理”变得如丝般顺滑。</p>\n<p>于是，<b>本来属于金融投资范畴的基金产品，生生被基金公司、贩卖平台和线上媒体一起，包装成了快消品。</b></p>\n<p>一款效果好、体验佳的快消品，自然会赢得消费者的万千宠爱，但这与成熟的投资理念，其实八竿子都打不着。</p>\n<p>打开那些讨论基金理财的社区或者平台，十个有八个都在追逐新能源白酒和医药的热点基，或是讨论今天净值怎么跌了的抱怨贴——<b>把基金当股票“炒”，把基金经理当爱豆追，是这一轮散户入场的明显特征。</b></p>\n<p>然而，水能载舟，亦能覆舟。如果赚钱效应快速消退，基民们还能像现在一样对持有的基金经理顶礼膜拜吗？</p>\n<p>就好像在张坤之前那个因为重仓半导体而被基民们又爱又恨的蔡嵩淞说的那样，“不要赚了钱就叫我蔡总，亏了钱就叫我菜狗”。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7b36274fa96e723d3b61f85bb4a08b6d\" tg-width=\"687\" tg-height=\"249\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>另外，把用户体验做到极致的基金APP们也别忘了，现在买基金是方便了，但赎回一支基金也就变成几秒钟的事儿了呀。</p>\n<p>4</p>\n<p>再说说美股。</p>\n<p><b>Gamestop的故事固然很励志，但其内核依然是一个很老套的集体无意识的故事。</b></p>\n<p>一个看起来似是而非有点道理的诱因（有大量的机构做空头寸，以及有可能触发公司基本面变化的强人入股），一个或一群有明确图谋的意见领袖，和一群信奉yolo（you only live once）的赌徒，一步步通过赚钱效应的强化，诱发了股票本身的剧烈波动。</p>\n<p>不过这个故事和过往不同的是，疫情的大背景让美国有了大量无所事事宅在家的人，他们手握政府给的援助支票却无从消费，或者不敢消费，而之前在<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">特斯拉</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CCL\">嘉年华邮轮</a>之类的热门股上的赚钱经验让他们敢于刀口舔血，于是在互联网领袖的号召下一拥而上，并在正愁没有大新闻的媒体关注中找到了更多志同道合的“伙伴”，从而完成了一场线上版的“占领华尔街”。</p>\n<p>有趣的是，虽然这几天的逼空事件被媒体包装成“散户完胜机构”的经典案例，但事实上被拿出来代表散户的，比如在CNBC采访中大放异彩的<b>Chamath Palihapitiya，却是一家名为Social Capital的投资机构的创始人，</b>并且在2020年完成了四家SPAC的发行，横扫最热门的新型公司。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/43563fdc0f5cbe1b3d3f7e8903dfd848\" tg-width=\"1000\" tg-height=\"500\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>这叫散户？你告诉我这叫散户？</p>\n<p>所以个人认为，<b>如果说这一轮的中国基金热潮是披着“机构皮”的散户市的话，那么正在大洋彼岸发生的这一系列股市奇谭，只能证明美国是一个披着“散户皮”的机构市。</b></p>\n<p>大量具有新思维，和传统机构理念不合的企业家和投资机构正在跑步入场，无论是马斯克还是ARK女神抑或是这次的Chamath，都是其中的杰出代表。</p>\n<p>互联网思维和疫情，再加上高涨的市场情绪，在两国的资本市场引发了一些看似错乱的现象，而这些上蹿下跳的小盘股，不过是美国股市这个沸腾油锅上飞溅的油星罢了。</p>\n<p>最后送各位两张图，不管A股和美股活成什么样子，咱自己可不能活成这个样子：</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cb7d22f6540a017b9f4f0094b4fef667\" tg-width=\"720\" tg-height=\"602\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/79c9b078c9d5c0e16a03d86daffec08e\" tg-width=\"660\" tg-height=\"323\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>","source":"lsy1571700905465","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>A股和美股都活成了对方的样子</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; 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.h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nA股和美股都活成了对方的样子\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-01-29 14:09 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.huxiu.com/article/407232.html><strong>起朱楼宴宾客</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>这几天最热门的行业新闻有且只有两条。\n大洋彼岸是美股散户大战机构，在游戏驿站这支“垃圾股”上散户们团结一致连续逼空，取得了“决定性的胜利”，不但自己赚得盆满钵满，还打得一干华尔街大佬满地求饶，然后在昨晚顺利崩盘了一次。在散户聚集地wsb论坛里，大家恨不得把对冲基金大佬们啖肉喋血，各种口号和小火箭刷到飞起，群情激愤热火朝天。\n中国这边厢却是基民们决定为易方达的基金经理张坤成立后援会，取名和娱乐圈顶流...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.huxiu.com/article/407232.html\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f5f37245cdd9f577000f7193c7907d3f","relate_stocks":{"601012":"隆基绿能",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","GME":"游戏驿站",".DJI":"道琼斯","000001.SH":"上证指数"},"source_url":"https://www.huxiu.com/article/407232.html","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2107929467","content_text":"这几天最热门的行业新闻有且只有两条。\n大洋彼岸是美股散户大战机构，在游戏驿站这支“垃圾股”上散户们团结一致连续逼空，取得了“决定性的胜利”，不但自己赚得盆满钵满，还打得一干华尔街大佬满地求饶，然后在昨晚顺利崩盘了一次。在散户聚集地wsb论坛里，大家恨不得把对冲基金大佬们啖肉喋血，各种口号和小火箭刷到飞起，群情激愤热火朝天。\n中国这边厢却是基民们决定为易方达的基金经理张坤成立后援会，取名和娱乐圈顶流蔡徐坤的粉丝团同名的ikun。不但微博上的超话#易方达张坤#阅读量超过1500万，而且去看超话下的评论和发言，都是在为机构大佬五体投地摇旗呐喊的粉丝，端得一派欢乐祥和的氛围。\n打我投身金融行业起，就一直被前辈们循循教导，“A股是散户市，美股是机构市，A股见顶要看散户啥时候跑步进场，美股见顶是要看机构啥时候一致看多，可千万别搞反了。”\n万万没想到，本以为资本市场的投资者结构变化是一条单行道，却在魔幻的2021见证了历史——\n怎么一夜间，A股和美股都突然活成了对方的样子？\n1\n如果经历过07到08年A股牛市的“老人”们，可能会记得一个叫做“带头大哥777”的大V。\n当年这位大哥有多火呢？和现在的顶流瓜可以搞垮微博服务器一样，当年带头大哥的文章能把网易博客搞宕机，然后粉丝们进不去他的个人主页还抱怨——\n\n “鞋都挤掉了，还是进不去呀！”\n\n2007年5月，“带头大哥777”的博客点击量已经突破了1000万，超过了当年的“博客女王”徐静蕾，成为“中国第一博”。\n\n那年头，凡是炒股的年轻人大多听过他的名号，我也不例外——限定年龄是因为那时还只有年轻人上网讨论股票，老股民大多守在券商营业部里。\n虽然直觉告诉我一个人怎么可能每天都能预测准第二天的大盘点位，以及哪些个股能涨停，但总是忍不住手痒去看看他都说了些什么，还偶尔会跟着下个单赚口汤喝。\n那可真的是一个全民皆股的时代。\n虽然公募基金在那两年也得到了诞生以来的第一次爆发式增长，但更多的人还是宁愿相信自己“勤劳的双手”和“智慧的双眼”，排队去营业部开户后，跟随满天飞的消息和旁人唾沫飞溅中的推荐，按手买入自己人生的第一支股票。\n当年的股民里流行一首歌叫《死了都不卖》，歌词里有一句迄今我还记得很清楚，\n\n “我不听别人安排，凭感觉就买入，赚钱就会很愉快。”\n\n如果看看现在美国WSB论坛里的帖子，简直让人产生了yesterday once more的错觉。\n前一秒呼吁大家等GameStop股票涨到1000美元再卖的帖子刚获得万赞，下一秒已经有人喊出一千块也不要卖，这股票只要我们不卖就会一直涨（this stock will stay going as long as we dont sell！）\n\n昨天中午在看CNBC针对美股此次散户逼空事件的“带头大哥”Chamath的访谈时，也依稀可以看到了当年带头大哥777的“风采”。\n虽然Chamath对专业知识和诡辩技巧更加精通，可立的依然是“散户保护神”的形象，轰出来的炮都是类似“凭什么量化基金不看基本面做投资就可以，散户不看基本面投资就要被批判？凭什么对冲基金只开放给大户买，而散户赚钱了就要被调查被限制？”\n而当年带头大哥777除了那张神气非凡的头像照之外，就属放在个人主页上的经典语录最让人印象深刻了——\n\n “股票就是我的王国，散户就是我的兄弟。有我在你们就可以藐视一切机构，藐视一切主力，他们在我剑下除了颤抖什么都不会。”\n\n说实话，我觉得带头大哥777的话还更霸气一些。反正都是无脑跟，这短短几句话不是更让人有一种热血沸腾，想要跟着他打土豪分田地的冲动么？\n2\n就在美国股市正在翻拍中国15年前的那场“散户牛”剧情时，中国市场却在上演美国40年前那场由公募基金主导的“机构牛”。\n其实张坤和他掌管的易方达蓝筹精选基金此次的出圈一点都不让人意外，毕竟美国的那个年代也有一战成名的彼得·林奇和他的麦哲伦基金。\n插句题外话，麦哲伦基金这个名字，可比现在中国基金这些个什么蓝筹精选啦先进制造之类的名字精彩多了。\n彼得·林奇的故事已经被太多人讲述，简而言之，就是他接管麦哲伦基金的那些年就跟开了挂似的，大盘小涨它大涨，大盘下跌它也大涨，连美股遭遇大崩盘的1987年，基金净值都增长了1%。\n那资金还能不蜂拥而入吗？\n到彼得·林奇退休时的1990年，麦哲伦基金的资产规模已经从几千万美元膨胀到了140亿美元——是的，和张坤创下的千亿规模一样。\n不过可别忘了，那是30年前的一千亿。\n麦哲伦基金的背后，是一整个美国主动管理型公募基金的大时代，而麦哲伦基金所在的富达投资，甚至专门成立了名叫“明星基金经理学院”的机构来培养优秀的年轻人。\n再说句题外话，其实美国主动管理型公募基金的大时代和所谓美股的“漂亮50”并没有直接的关联，后者是在70年代产生并就破灭掉的一个概念。而美国的基金经理们是通过扎实的基本面研究和蒸蒸日上的美国经济，共同托起了一个万亿级的基金行业。\n不过，当年将麦哲伦基金捧上神坛的散户们，在彼得·林奇退休后逐渐发现这只基金再也没有了能持续跑赢市场的魔力，于是“扯乎”就成了一致的选择。\n麦哲伦基金的规模从2000年巅峰时的1100亿美金一路下滑，到 2018年已经缩水了90%，这甚至拖累整个富达投资的市场份额都接近腰斩。\n先锋领航的约翰·博格后来在书中是这么评价麦哲伦基金的——\n\n ＂靠刀剑生活的人，必死在刀剑下。He who lives by the sword shall die by the sword.＂\n\n中国也有类似的表达，成也萧何（散户），败也萧何（散户）。\n3\n那么，为什么美股好像突然变成了“散户话事”，而A股却成了机构投资者的天堂？难道真的是一夜之间，中美投资者的理念出现了天翻地覆的变化吗？\n这显然是不可能的。不过两者深层次的原因倒是殊途同归，都与这个时代有关。\n先说A股。\n先把个人的一个判断放在这，不一定对——在中国版的401K养老账户落地，国际投资者（而不是假“北水”）将中国作为发达资本市场对待之前，中国股市都不会真正成为一个以机构投资者为主导的、成熟理性的市场。\n因此，在这两年所谓“个人投资基金化”的背后，并不是中国的个人投资者真的成熟了，而依然是亮眼的赚钱效应在起作用。\n因为对于个人投资者来说，如果没有强制养老储蓄或者其他的限制条件，其实投资很简单，那就是什么样的资产能赚钱，而且在过去相当一段时间都证明能持续赚钱，那就“买他”。\n而这一轮牛市中的公募基金，已经用接近五年的时间证明了自己的赚钱能力——是的，不是两年，而是五年。\n白马龙头们走出第一波独立行情其实是在2017年。那一年隆基股份涨了170%，海康威视涨了150%，而贵州茅台、万华化学、中国平安、美的集团等一批大市值股票也纷纷翻了倍。\n2018年看似熊市，但如果真的细数，会发现白马龙头在那一年的跌幅其实非常有限，和中小创们遭受腰斩的重创完全不可同日而语，所以持有白马龙头们的公募基金其实回撤也并不大。\n而在接下来的2019和2020，这些龙头公司和他们背后的公募资金共同迎来了爆发期，这让买基金的赚钱效应比起自己买股票的赚钱效应好了太多。而当买基金-追抱团股-净值涨-再买基金成为了一个正反馈之后，剩下的事情就好办了。\n当然，赚钱效应只是一个契机，这一轮的基金热还有另外一个非常重要的原因，那就是互联网时代的推波助澜。\n虽然07年和15年的牛市同样有互联网的加持，但都还停留在干巴巴的文字时代，哪里像现在，随便打开抖音、微博甚至是小红书，关于如何买基金、投基金的视频比比皆是。\n这几年的大V、媒体乃至营销号们动用了十八般武艺来“推销”基金，无论是直播还是访谈，抑或是各种所谓的线上理财课，让买基金这种本应理性的投资决策，从一种“思考”变成了“感官刺激”。\n当然，还顺带规避了当年带头大哥777违规荐股的法律风险。\n\n随便什么时候打开支付宝，都会有大量的理财直播跃入眼前\n更何况，基金公司们在这一波牛市中变得“聪明”了。他们巧妙地将买冷冰冰的基金产品这件事，转化成了投资一个个鲜活的基金经理。\n虽然上一轮牛市也流传着王亚伟、王茹远之类的传说，但对于普通基民而言，哪里像这一轮市场的基金经理们，生生被市场部掰成了直播网红的样子——无论他们长得磕碜也好，帅气也好，讲的朴实无华也好，能说会道也好，都统统需要出来“接客”。\n于是买基金这件事，对于基民，尤其是85后和90后基民而言，都不再是单纯的看一个代码、读一张报表和跟踪一个净值，而是在听了基金经理的投资理念、看了他的现场分享或是读了他的访谈记录后，产生了更多的真实触感，甚至是情感连接。\n\n\n上图和下图分别是过去和现在同一家基金公司的线下广告，看出差别了吗？\n大概是嫌把基金变成带有个人IP的商品还不够吧，以支付宝为代表的基金销售平台还在绞尽脑汁的让买基金变成一件可以十秒钟之内完成的事情。\n如果是在十几年前买过基金的人都知道，买一个产品是要在银行柜台填无数单子的，而现如今，在APP里投一只基金和在淘宝上买一个化妆品，或者在美团上叫一个外卖差不多容易。甚至有平台推出了在不同的基金之间无缝切换的功能，让基金投资的“全生命周期管理”变得如丝般顺滑。\n于是，本来属于金融投资范畴的基金产品，生生被基金公司、贩卖平台和线上媒体一起，包装成了快消品。\n一款效果好、体验佳的快消品，自然会赢得消费者的万千宠爱，但这与成熟的投资理念，其实八竿子都打不着。\n打开那些讨论基金理财的社区或者平台，十个有八个都在追逐新能源白酒和医药的热点基，或是讨论今天净值怎么跌了的抱怨贴——把基金当股票“炒”，把基金经理当爱豆追，是这一轮散户入场的明显特征。\n然而，水能载舟，亦能覆舟。如果赚钱效应快速消退，基民们还能像现在一样对持有的基金经理顶礼膜拜吗？\n就好像在张坤之前那个因为重仓半导体而被基民们又爱又恨的蔡嵩淞说的那样，“不要赚了钱就叫我蔡总，亏了钱就叫我菜狗”。\n\n另外，把用户体验做到极致的基金APP们也别忘了，现在买基金是方便了，但赎回一支基金也就变成几秒钟的事儿了呀。\n4\n再说说美股。\nGamestop的故事固然很励志，但其内核依然是一个很老套的集体无意识的故事。\n一个看起来似是而非有点道理的诱因（有大量的机构做空头寸，以及有可能触发公司基本面变化的强人入股），一个或一群有明确图谋的意见领袖，和一群信奉yolo（you only live once）的赌徒，一步步通过赚钱效应的强化，诱发了股票本身的剧烈波动。\n不过这个故事和过往不同的是，疫情的大背景让美国有了大量无所事事宅在家的人，他们手握政府给的援助支票却无从消费，或者不敢消费，而之前在特斯拉、嘉年华邮轮之类的热门股上的赚钱经验让他们敢于刀口舔血，于是在互联网领袖的号召下一拥而上，并在正愁没有大新闻的媒体关注中找到了更多志同道合的“伙伴”，从而完成了一场线上版的“占领华尔街”。\n有趣的是，虽然这几天的逼空事件被媒体包装成“散户完胜机构”的经典案例，但事实上被拿出来代表散户的，比如在CNBC采访中大放异彩的Chamath Palihapitiya，却是一家名为Social Capital的投资机构的创始人，并且在2020年完成了四家SPAC的发行，横扫最热门的新型公司。\n\n这叫散户？你告诉我这叫散户？\n所以个人认为，如果说这一轮的中国基金热潮是披着“机构皮”的散户市的话，那么正在大洋彼岸发生的这一系列股市奇谭，只能证明美国是一个披着“散户皮”的机构市。\n大量具有新思维，和传统机构理念不合的企业家和投资机构正在跑步入场，无论是马斯克还是ARK女神抑或是这次的Chamath，都是其中的杰出代表。\n互联网思维和疫情，再加上高涨的市场情绪，在两国的资本市场引发了一些看似错乱的现象，而这些上蹿下跳的小盘股，不过是美国股市这个沸腾油锅上飞溅的油星罢了。\n最后送各位两张图，不管A股和美股活成什么样子，咱自己可不能活成这个样子：","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":361,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":353873120,"gmtCreate":1616487013060,"gmtModify":1616487013060,"author":{"id":"3549495467282916","authorId":"3549495467282916","name":"荒芜边界","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2af79c5d9bbc8f263befd87f6938c1ee","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"这段时间行情不行啊","listText":"这段时间行情不行啊","text":"这段时间行情不行啊","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/353873120","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":834,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}