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zhaosu

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2021-09-21

谁要当接盘侠

@刘有真:$BABA 20211015 155.0 CALL(BABA)$中概股跌起来没人要[流泪]

2021-08-20

不会做客？

@张先生_3270:$快手-W(01024)$这个赌场还有人要玩吗？来一个杀一个

2021-07-16

mark

抱歉，原内容已删除

2021-06-04

Great ariticle, would you like to share it?

抱歉，原内容已删除

2021-04-19

$International Flavors & Fragrances(IFF)$ 突破前高，看多

2021-04-15

seeking alpha 每月只能看5篇文，是怎么转载的

Is Palantir Actually Overvalued?

2021-03-09

赶紧乖乖从美股退市吧

2021-02-17

$Salesforce.com(CRM)$ 今天1万手3月190的put是什么意思呢

2020-07-11

什么破文章，就一个20岁不成熟的失败就说散户失败，怎么不说那些挣了百万的

抱歉，原内容已删除

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ariticle, would you like to share it?","listText":"Great ariticle, would you like to share it?","text":"Great ariticle, would you like to share it?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/116163298","repostId":"116184704","repostType":1,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":702,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":373114414,"gmtCreate":1618830979538,"gmtModify":1618830979538,"author":{"id":"3547066446284714","authorId":"3547066446284714","authorIdStr":"3547066446284714","name":"zhaosu","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3547066446284714"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/IFF\">$International Flavors &amp; Fragrances(IFF)$</a> 突破前高，看多","listText":"<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/IFF\">$International Flavors &amp; Fragrances(IFF)$</a> 突破前高，看多","text":"$International Flavors & Fragrances(IFF)$ 突破前高，看多","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/373114414","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2592,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":347581860,"gmtCreate":1618501541250,"gmtModify":1618501541250,"author":{"id":"3547066446284714","authorId":"3547066446284714","authorIdStr":"3547066446284714","name":"zhaosu","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3547066446284714"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"seeking alpha 每月只能看5篇文，是怎么转载的","listText":"seeking alpha 每月只能看5篇文，是怎么转载的","text":"seeking alpha 每月只能看5篇文，是怎么转载的","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/347581860","repostId":"1181372898","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1181372898","pubTimestamp":1618501265,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1181372898?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-04-15 23:41","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Is Palantir Actually Overvalued?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1181372898","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"(April 15) Palantir fell nearlr 3% in Thursday morning  trading.SummaryPalantir looks very expensive","content":"<p>(April 15)&nbsp;Palantir fell nearlr 3%&nbsp;in Thursday&nbsp;morning  trading.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/48094c753cf8466f8f6f524a7349fba1\" tg-width=\"658\" tg-height=\"395\"></p><p><b>Summary</b></p><ul><li>Palantir looks very expensive at first sight. But could that be justified?</li><li>The company looks a lot stronger than many other hyped-up growth stocks when it comes to margins, market positioning, etc.</li><li>We showcase ways to enter a position in Palantir at a more attractive price.</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/534db15a589a6170b395a97ae7d469e8\" tg-width=\"768\" tg-height=\"418\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Photo by wildpixel/iStock via Getty Images</span></p><p><b>Article Thesis</b></p><p>Palantir (PLTR), at 150 times this year's expected earnings, looks very expensive. But when we take a closer look, the price might be justified, as Palantir has a compelling ultra-long-term growth outlook due to a strong position in an absolute growth market. Despite a seemingly very high valuation, Palantir's shares could be a solid long-term investment.</p><p><b>Palantir Is Not A Typical Stock I Like</b></p><p>In general, I am mostly focused on dividend-paying stocks that trade at reasonable or cheap valuations, with some \"growth at a reasonable price\" (GARP) added in. Stocks trading at 100 times forward earnings, or even higher than that, are not at all typical of what I like to write about, and what I personally invest in. I have been quite critical of many stocks that trade at what I believe are too-high valuations. Nevertheless, I see Palantir as a stock that has a lot of potential in the long run, and that seems worthy of consideration, despite a seemingly very high valuation.</p><p>The reasoning for why I like Palantir, despite it trading at a quite high valuation, rests on three main pillars:</p><p><b>1. Palantir is active in an absolute growth market that will grow for decades</b></p><p>Big data, data analysis, and artificial intelligence are not short-term trends that will play out in a couple of years, but rather megatrends that will most likely become ever more important. 20 years from now, 30 years from now, and likely even farther in the future, big data and artificial intelligence will still be growth markets.</p><p><b>2. Palantir has a very clear industry leadership position</b></p><p>Many hyped-up growth companies are active in a highly fought-over market, oftentimes there is no clear, large moat for first-movers and current market leaders. I believe that in Palantir's case, that is not true. The company has developed a wide range of products and offerings for customers that are very unique, and where competition is not looking like a major concern. On top of that, Palantir has established very strong connections with government agencies and the military, which will be hard to replicate for eventual competitors. This does, I believe, result in a high likelihood that Palantir will not only be the leading player in the near term, but that it will retain this position for a long time. I personally am not so sure about the future leadership position of other current hyped-up leaders, including Tesla (TSLA) in EVs, Beyond Meat (BYND) in plant-based meat alternatives, etc.</p><p><b>3. The industry Palantir is active in has great characteristics</b></p><p>Big data and artificial intelligence are not only absolute growth markets, they also, as part of the software/service tech industry, offer a range of highly compelling characteristics. First, the software industry has, on average, very high gross and operating margins. This is, at least partially, the result of relatively low proportional costs, as there is no expensive manufacturing infrastructure needed.High gross margins&nbsp;are one of the common traits shared by companies that are able to deliver strong long-term share price gains.</p><p>The software industry is also capital extensive, which means that free cash flows, on average, are relatively high. There is no need to build out a lot of expensive infrastructure such as manufacturing plants, which translates into attractive free cash generation that can be used for tuck-in acquisitions, debt reduction, etc.</p><p>Third, the software industry overall is not cyclical. As software is an essential part of our daily lives and of doing business, customers don't scale back their use of software during a recession or any other type of crisis. In Palantir's case, where government agencies are a major customer, resilience is even stronger. Compared to many other growth industries, including EVs, renewable energy, etc. these very attractive traits are very pronounced for software companies, including Palantir. As an example of the attractiveness of Palantir's business mode, let's look at its gross margins versus those of other hyped growth stocks:</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bd5c147cb9babf998cfd35649f4cad22\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p>Clearly, Palantir is in a class of its own compared to Tesla, Beyond Meat, Peloton (PTON), or Canadian Solar (CSIQ) (as a stand-in for most solar and renewable stocks).</p><p><b>Palantir's Valuation - How High Is It?</b></p><p>Looking at current earnings per share estimates for this year, which stand at $0.16, Palantir is trading for around 150 times this year's earnings. That is, of course, an extremely high valuation in absolute terms.</p><p>However, it should be considered that Palantir is just beginning to generate positive net profits. Shortly after breaking even, net profits can't be expected to be very high yet. But due to two key reasons, Palantir's earnings should grow meaningfully in coming years. First, the nature of the market the company is active in will allow for strong revenue growth going forward. On top of that, thanks to the fact that Palantir generates very high gross margins, each additional dollar of revenue that the company generates in the future should help a lot in improving profitability. When a company like Palantir adds $1 billion in additional sales, that will do a lot more for its bottom line compared to most other companies, that won't see profits grow as much due to lower margins.</p><p>Analysts are thus, not surprisingly, forecasting strong earnings per share growth over the next two years:</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f4a7db46186418a049678d1ecf17ff30\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"436\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p>Whereas Palantir trades for around 150 times this year's earnings, the stock trades for 118 times 2022's earnings, and for 97 times 2023's earnings. Those aren't low valuations at all, but it can make sense to look at how companies such as Netflix (NFLX) or Amazon (AMZN) were valued in their younger days.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8c82732cfdc04638279f1d9e77e9c1e4\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"419\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p>Not too long ago, these companies were trading for 200-300 times net profits, despite having reached a much larger size already. Palantir, with stronger gross margins and a smaller size, is not trading for 200 or even 300 times net earnings. Since we all know that buying Amazon or Netflix five years ago was a great decision, Palantir's current valuation may indeed not be unreasonable.</p><p>When we assume that current estimates for 2023's net earnings are correct, and that Palantir will be able to grow its earnings per share by 25% a year through the 2020s, then net earnings would total $1.23 in 2030. Put a 35 times earnings multiple on that, and shares would be valued at $43, which would lead to annual returns of ~6%.</p><p>A 35 times earnings multiple may be on the conservative side still - after all, even a giant such as Amazon is trading at 72 times earnings today. Palantir may also be able to grow its earnings per share at a higher pace than 25% a year during the 2020s. Lastly, Palantir may be way more profitable in 2023 compared to what analysts are forecasting right now (after all, the company has&nbsp;easily beaten estimates&nbsp;in the past), which would lead to higher EPS in 2030 as well, assuming an unchanged growth rate. In a more bullish scenario, where Palantir earns $0.30 in 2023, grows its EPS by 30% a year through 2030 and trades at 40 times net earnings in 2030, the stock could be worth $75 nine years from now, delivering 200% in that scenario. I'm not saying that this will happen - no one can know that right now. But I believe that, with reasonable assumptions, it can be argued that Palantir's shares may not be all that overpriced right now.</p><p><b>How To Get Into Palantir At A Lower Price</b></p><p>For those that like the company, but that deem shares a little too expensive, selling covered calls or cash-secured puts could be an interesting choice. Due to a high implied volatility, option premiums are quite high. If you buy 100 shares at $25 and sell a $30 call with expiry in June 2022 at $6.30, you effectively entered a position at $18.70, or a 25% discount to the current price. There is a risk of shares getting called away, but even in that scenario, one would still generate a return of 45% ($36.30/$25) in 14 months, which would not at all be unattractive.</p><p>Similarly, entering a position via cash-secured puts (e.g. Jan 2022 puts with a strike price selling for$3.00right now) could be a way to get a sizeable discount versus the current share price.</p><p><b>Takeaway</b></p><p>At first sight, Palantir looks quite expensive, trading for around 150 times net earnings. But when we take a closer look, the above-average quality, strong growth outlook, and great market position, Palantir may well be worth its current price. I see it as one of the most favorable among the hyped-up growth stocks - which I see as overvalued in most cases - and believe that investors who buy Palantir's shares right here may very well do fine in the long run. I still believe that utilizing option strategies to enter a position at a lower effective price could be a good idea though, as this is highly rewarding thanks to very high option premiums.</p><p>Palantir looks quite expensive but unlike many other hyped-up names, it could be worth its current valuation, I believe. I believe that the stock is interesting for very long-term oriented investors that want to see Palantir's potential play out over the next decades.</p>","source":"seekingalpha","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Is Palantir Actually Overvalued?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nIs Palantir Actually Overvalued?\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-04-15 23:41 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4419080-is-palantir-actually-overvalued><strong>seekingalpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>(April 15) Palantir fell nearlr 3% in Thursday morning  trading.SummaryPalantir looks very expensive at first sight. But could that be justified?The company looks a lot stronger than many other hyped-...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4419080-is-palantir-actually-overvalued\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"PLTR":"Palantir Technologies Inc."},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4419080-is-palantir-actually-overvalued","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/5a36db9d73b4222bc376d24ccc48c8a4","article_id":"1181372898","content_text":"(April 15) Palantir fell nearlr 3% in Thursday morning  trading.SummaryPalantir looks very expensive at first sight. But could that be justified?The company looks a lot stronger than many other hyped-up growth stocks when it comes to margins, market positioning, etc.We showcase ways to enter a position in Palantir at a more attractive price.Photo by wildpixel/iStock via Getty ImagesArticle ThesisPalantir (PLTR), at 150 times this year's expected earnings, looks very expensive. But when we take a closer look, the price might be justified, as Palantir has a compelling ultra-long-term growth outlook due to a strong position in an absolute growth market. Despite a seemingly very high valuation, Palantir's shares could be a solid long-term investment.Palantir Is Not A Typical Stock I LikeIn general, I am mostly focused on dividend-paying stocks that trade at reasonable or cheap valuations, with some \"growth at a reasonable price\" (GARP) added in. Stocks trading at 100 times forward earnings, or even higher than that, are not at all typical of what I like to write about, and what I personally invest in. I have been quite critical of many stocks that trade at what I believe are too-high valuations. Nevertheless, I see Palantir as a stock that has a lot of potential in the long run, and that seems worthy of consideration, despite a seemingly very high valuation.The reasoning for why I like Palantir, despite it trading at a quite high valuation, rests on three main pillars:1. Palantir is active in an absolute growth market that will grow for decadesBig data, data analysis, and artificial intelligence are not short-term trends that will play out in a couple of years, but rather megatrends that will most likely become ever more important. 20 years from now, 30 years from now, and likely even farther in the future, big data and artificial intelligence will still be growth markets.2. Palantir has a very clear industry leadership positionMany hyped-up growth companies are active in a highly fought-over market, oftentimes there is no clear, large moat for first-movers and current market leaders. I believe that in Palantir's case, that is not true. The company has developed a wide range of products and offerings for customers that are very unique, and where competition is not looking like a major concern. On top of that, Palantir has established very strong connections with government agencies and the military, which will be hard to replicate for eventual competitors. This does, I believe, result in a high likelihood that Palantir will not only be the leading player in the near term, but that it will retain this position for a long time. I personally am not so sure about the future leadership position of other current hyped-up leaders, including Tesla (TSLA) in EVs, Beyond Meat (BYND) in plant-based meat alternatives, etc.3. The industry Palantir is active in has great characteristicsBig data and artificial intelligence are not only absolute growth markets, they also, as part of the software/service tech industry, offer a range of highly compelling characteristics. First, the software industry has, on average, very high gross and operating margins. This is, at least partially, the result of relatively low proportional costs, as there is no expensive manufacturing infrastructure needed.High gross margins are one of the common traits shared by companies that are able to deliver strong long-term share price gains.The software industry is also capital extensive, which means that free cash flows, on average, are relatively high. There is no need to build out a lot of expensive infrastructure such as manufacturing plants, which translates into attractive free cash generation that can be used for tuck-in acquisitions, debt reduction, etc.Third, the software industry overall is not cyclical. As software is an essential part of our daily lives and of doing business, customers don't scale back their use of software during a recession or any other type of crisis. In Palantir's case, where government agencies are a major customer, resilience is even stronger. Compared to many other growth industries, including EVs, renewable energy, etc. these very attractive traits are very pronounced for software companies, including Palantir. As an example of the attractiveness of Palantir's business mode, let's look at its gross margins versus those of other hyped growth stocks:Data by YChartsClearly, Palantir is in a class of its own compared to Tesla, Beyond Meat, Peloton (PTON), or Canadian Solar (CSIQ) (as a stand-in for most solar and renewable stocks).Palantir's Valuation - How High Is It?Looking at current earnings per share estimates for this year, which stand at $0.16, Palantir is trading for around 150 times this year's earnings. That is, of course, an extremely high valuation in absolute terms.However, it should be considered that Palantir is just beginning to generate positive net profits. Shortly after breaking even, net profits can't be expected to be very high yet. But due to two key reasons, Palantir's earnings should grow meaningfully in coming years. First, the nature of the market the company is active in will allow for strong revenue growth going forward. On top of that, thanks to the fact that Palantir generates very high gross margins, each additional dollar of revenue that the company generates in the future should help a lot in improving profitability. When a company like Palantir adds $1 billion in additional sales, that will do a lot more for its bottom line compared to most other companies, that won't see profits grow as much due to lower margins.Analysts are thus, not surprisingly, forecasting strong earnings per share growth over the next two years:Data by YChartsWhereas Palantir trades for around 150 times this year's earnings, the stock trades for 118 times 2022's earnings, and for 97 times 2023's earnings. Those aren't low valuations at all, but it can make sense to look at how companies such as Netflix (NFLX) or Amazon (AMZN) were valued in their younger days.Data by YChartsNot too long ago, these companies were trading for 200-300 times net profits, despite having reached a much larger size already. Palantir, with stronger gross margins and a smaller size, is not trading for 200 or even 300 times net earnings. Since we all know that buying Amazon or Netflix five years ago was a great decision, Palantir's current valuation may indeed not be unreasonable.When we assume that current estimates for 2023's net earnings are correct, and that Palantir will be able to grow its earnings per share by 25% a year through the 2020s, then net earnings would total $1.23 in 2030. Put a 35 times earnings multiple on that, and shares would be valued at $43, which would lead to annual returns of ~6%.A 35 times earnings multiple may be on the conservative side still - after all, even a giant such as Amazon is trading at 72 times earnings today. Palantir may also be able to grow its earnings per share at a higher pace than 25% a year during the 2020s. Lastly, Palantir may be way more profitable in 2023 compared to what analysts are forecasting right now (after all, the company has easily beaten estimates in the past), which would lead to higher EPS in 2030 as well, assuming an unchanged growth rate. In a more bullish scenario, where Palantir earns $0.30 in 2023, grows its EPS by 30% a year through 2030 and trades at 40 times net earnings in 2030, the stock could be worth $75 nine years from now, delivering 200% in that scenario. I'm not saying that this will happen - no one can know that right now. But I believe that, with reasonable assumptions, it can be argued that Palantir's shares may not be all that overpriced right now.How To Get Into Palantir At A Lower PriceFor those that like the company, but that deem shares a little too expensive, selling covered calls or cash-secured puts could be an interesting choice. Due to a high implied volatility, option premiums are quite high. If you buy 100 shares at $25 and sell a $30 call with expiry in June 2022 at $6.30, you effectively entered a position at $18.70, or a 25% discount to the current price. There is a risk of shares getting called away, but even in that scenario, one would still generate a return of 45% ($36.30/$25) in 14 months, which would not at all be unattractive.Similarly, entering a position via cash-secured puts (e.g. Jan 2022 puts with a strike price selling for$3.00right now) could be a way to get a sizeable discount versus the current share price.TakeawayAt first sight, Palantir looks quite expensive, trading for around 150 times net earnings. But when we take a closer look, the above-average quality, strong growth outlook, and great market position, Palantir may well be worth its current price. I see it as one of the most favorable among the hyped-up growth stocks - which I see as overvalued in most cases - and believe that investors who buy Palantir's shares right here may very well do fine in the long run. I still believe that utilizing option strategies to enter a position at a lower effective price could be a good idea though, as this is highly rewarding thanks to very high option premiums.Palantir looks quite expensive but unlike many other hyped-up names, it could be worth its current valuation, I believe. I believe that the stock is interesting for very long-term oriented investors that want to see Palantir's potential play out over the next decades.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1401,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":329416435,"gmtCreate":1615268028527,"gmtModify":1703486506462,"author":{"id":"3547066446284714","authorId":"3547066446284714","authorIdStr":"3547066446284714","name":"zhaosu","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3547066446284714"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"赶紧乖乖从美股退市吧","listText":"赶紧乖乖从美股退市吧","text":"赶紧乖乖从美股退市吧","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/329416435","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1919,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":385623555,"gmtCreate":1613545763177,"gmtModify":1613545763177,"author":{"id":"3547066446284714","authorId":"3547066446284714","authorIdStr":"3547066446284714","name":"zhaosu","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3547066446284714"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CRM\">$Salesforce.com(CRM)$</a> 今天1万手3月190的put是什么意思呢","listText":"<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CRM\">$Salesforce.com(CRM)$</a> 今天1万手3月190的put是什么意思呢","text":"$Salesforce.com(CRM)$ 今天1万手3月190的put是什么意思呢","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/385623555","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3235,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":943156910,"gmtCreate":1594424052730,"gmtModify":1704205709452,"author":{"id":"3547066446284714","authorId":"3547066446284714","authorIdStr":"3547066446284714","name":"zhaosu","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3547066446284714"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"什么破文章，就一个20岁不成熟的失败就说散户失败，怎么不说那些挣了百万的","listText":"什么破文章，就一个20岁不成熟的失败就说散户失败，怎么不说那些挣了百万的","text":"什么破文章，就一个20岁不成熟的失败就说散户失败，怎么不说那些挣了百万的","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/943156910","repostId":"1152202937","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2129,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3527667803686145","authorId":"3527667803686145","authorIdStr":"3527667803686145","name":"社区成长助手","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2b7c7106b5c0c8b0037faa67439d898f","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3527667803686145"},"content":"终于等到了您的初发帖[比心][比心]发帖时关联相关股票或者相关话题，可以获得更多曝光哦～如果您想创作优质文章，请查看老虎社区创作指引","text":"终于等到了您的初发帖[比心][比心]发帖时关联相关股票或者相关话题，可以获得更多曝光哦～如果您想创作优质文章，请查看老虎社区创作指引","html":"终于等到了您的初发帖[比心][比心]发帖时关联相关股票或者相关话题，可以获得更多曝光哦～如果您想创作优质文章，请查看老虎社区创作指引"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":385623555,"gmtCreate":1613545763177,"gmtModify":1613545763177,"author":{"id":"3547066446284714","authorId":"3547066446284714","authorIdStr":"3547066446284714","name":"zhaosu","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3547066446284714"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CRM\">$Salesforce.com(CRM)$</a> 今天1万手3月190的put是什么意思呢","listText":"<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CRM\">$Salesforce.com(CRM)$</a> 今天1万手3月190的put是什么意思呢","text":"$Salesforce.com(CRM)$ 今天1万手3月190的put是什么意思呢","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/385623555","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3235,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":943156910,"gmtCreate":1594424052730,"gmtModify":1704205709452,"author":{"id":"3547066446284714","authorId":"3547066446284714","authorIdStr":"3547066446284714","name":"zhaosu","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3547066446284714"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"什么破文章，就一个20岁不成熟的失败就说散户失败，怎么不说那些挣了百万的","listText":"什么破文章，就一个20岁不成熟的失败就说散户失败，怎么不说那些挣了百万的","text":"什么破文章，就一个20岁不成熟的失败就说散户失败，怎么不说那些挣了百万的","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/943156910","repostId":"1152202937","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1152202937","pubTimestamp":1594384945,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1152202937?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2020-07-10 20:42","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"从100万血亏至不到1万！多数美股散户注定以悲剧收场？","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1152202937","media":"腾讯美股","summary":"“他们使一切变得极为便利，哪怕对股票一无所知的人也能够轻松上手。于是你去了他们的平台，等着你的命运就是赔钱。”这就是近日，一位名叫多巴茨（Richard Dobatse）的美股散户投资者对《纽约时报》","content":"<blockquote>\n <i>“他们使一切变得极为便利，哪怕对股票一无所知的人也能够轻松上手。于是你去了他们的平台，等着你的命运就是赔钱。”这就是近日，一位名叫多巴茨（Richard Dobatse）的美股散户投资者对《<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NYT\">纽约时报</a>》撰稿人这样总结了自己的“多么痛的领悟”。</i>\n</blockquote>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c54bd228bd6294b1a3a038a31245f207\" tg-width=\"554\" tg-height=\"368\"></p>\n<p>多巴茨所指的“他们”，当然就是当下高度活跃的美股新日间交易散户的聚集地Robinhood平台。他是被这一app各种花狸狐哨的设定吸引过去的，这些手段使得复杂的投资看上去更像是简单的游戏，魅惑了很多用户。</p>\n<p>他是2017年“入坑”的，最初用信用卡预付了1.5万美元开户，而在不断遭遇亏损之后，又不得不借了合计3万美元的房屋净值贷款。</p>\n<p>今年，他似乎时来运转了，几个月里，账户净资产一度膨胀到了100万美元。然后，一切就分崩离析了，接受采访时，他账户里只剩下了6950美元。</p>\n<p>他的妻子介绍说，多巴茨“做交易时，甚至连饭都不想吃”，晚上“他还会做噩梦”。</p>\n<p>这篇报道再度将Robinhood和疫情期间诞生的一代宅家散户推到了聚光灯下。今年早些时候，一位二十岁的大学生卡恩斯（Alex Kearns）自杀身亡，就已经引发了关于这一群体和他们行为的广泛讨论。当时，他错误地以为自己的Robinhood账户已经欠债超过70万美元，于是留下了“一个二十岁、没有任何收入的人怎么会被系统分配了近百万美元的杠杆？”的遗书，与世长辞。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/208eb31ef23694d6851fc5ae81b17b92\" tg-width=\"554\" tg-height=\"311\"></p>\n<p>如果只是去看这些散户的网上社区，比如Reddit的WallStreetBets群组或者其他论坛，人们很容易就会以为他们都是超级成功者，但正如前面两篇报道所显示的，事实其实远没有那么美妙。</p>\n<p>理财咨询公司Cerulli专门追踪券商数据的专家史密斯（Scott Smith）就坦言，也许现在由于美股近几个月的戏剧性大涨行情，这些散户当中颇有不少人赚了些钱，但是长期来看，日间交易群体赚钱其实是例外，赔钱才是必然。他在《纽约时报》报道中对Robinhood的评价是：“他们是在怂恿自行车都搞不掂的人去骑摩托车。长期而言，这种行为其实就等于试图从赌场手中抢钱。”</p>\n<p>赌客想要击败赌场，当然几乎是不可能，但是日间交易者要赚钱，真的就这么难么？事实胜于雄辩，投资社区网站Tradeciety曾经发布过一组有趣的统计结果。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c495d092fe74505816a7858a25432a72\" tg-width=\"538\" tg-height=\"382\"></p>\n<ol>\n <li><p>&nbsp;80%的日间交易者都坚持不了两年。</p></li>\n <li><p>平均而言，全部散户的表现每年落后大盘1.5%，而日间交易散户落后6.5%。</p></li>\n <li><p>平均而言，全部日间交易者当中每年只有平均1.6%能够赚钱。</p></li>\n <li><p>越是没钱的散户，投入日间交易的资金相对于他们的总收入的占比越高。其中，那些穷困的、年轻的、居住于城市的少数族裔尤其如此。</p></li>\n <li><p>日间交易者倾向于卖掉上涨的股票，而不肯放弃下跌的。</p></li>\n <li><p>中国台湾2002年4月引入乐透彩票后，当地日间交易量骤降大约25%。</p></li>\n <li><p>日间交易者再度购入自己曾经赚钱的股票的概率要远大于自己曾经赔钱的股票。</p></li>\n <li><p>日间交易者不喜欢学习交易技巧。</p></li>\n <li><p>在扣除各种交易成本后，日间交易者的亏损还会进一步增大。</p></li>\n <li><p>日间交易者往往倾向于增持自己所在行业的股票。</p></li>\n</ol>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/880368296fea372393d93e4d4e3f551b\" tg-width=\"554\" tg-height=\"311\"></p>\n<p>显然，关于日间交易散户的现实确实不怎么美好。那么，为何大多数日间交易散户都只能是悲剧收场呢？理财入门网站THE ROBUST TRADER列出了十大原因。</p>\n<p><b>1. 没有策略和规划</b></p>\n<p>要做交易，就必须有一个长期愿景，以及达成愿景的可靠规划，在不同的策略之间不停切换，乃至于全凭心血来潮做决定，注定是不会有好果子吃的。</p>\n<p><b>2.&nbsp;没有自己的优势</b></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/08e87fecacfafb655d4a5e74cf883ae1\" tg-width=\"554\" tg-height=\"369\"></p>\n<p>这是日间交易者遭遇失败的最重大原因之一。要在市场上获得成功，必须保证自己至少在某方面拥有一定优势，而大多数散户都做不到这一点。</p>\n<p><b>3. 全无纪律</b></p>\n<p>没有优势就已经很糟糕了，再没有坚持既定策略的纪律，后果就只能是雪上加霜。要克制住自己的各种情绪，自己的“直觉”对市场的判断，一切以冰冷的策略为根据，其实难度极高。</p>\n<p><b>4. 下注过大</b></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8bd6ecceb3d627359ca0c15742ae9b1a\" tg-width=\"554\" tg-height=\"311\"></p>\n<p>哪怕投资者有了策略、优势和纪律，也没有谁能够保证每次交易都会成功，而交易生涯的可持续性很大程度上就要看每次交易的头寸规模。如果每次投入的资金都相当于全部本钱的2%，则连续失败十次也就损失20%，而如果每次都投入10%，连续失败十次就意味着血本无归。不要只想着买得多赚得多，也要想想赔了怎么办。</p>\n<p><b>5. 盲目自大</b></p>\n<p>不管是在生活还是在交易当中，人们总是可能会将某种其实完全是运气造成的结果当成自己能力的体现，由此越走越远。尤其是那些依靠“直觉”的散户，在根本没有什么真正能力的情况下，靠着概率也可能有一些成功的交易，而因此变得胆子越来越大，直到万劫不复。</p>\n<p><b>6. 没有应变预案</b></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d608172233396f8073700dd988680bb3\" tg-width=\"554\" tg-height=\"311\"></p>\n<p>许多新玩家都相信，自己只要找到一种对的策略，就可以一直赚钱下去了，然而事实就是，没有任何一种策略是会永远有效的。市场总是会变的，当既有的策略已经与市场脱节，你该用什么新策略来代替？你又如何判断更换策略的时间节点？</p>\n<p><b>7. 不做交易记录</b></p>\n<p>在日间交易所必需的功课当中，做交易记录是非常重要的一项。每一笔交易的时间、对象、金额、信号、预设入场点或退场点、止损手段、总体盈亏等都应该记录下来，这样可以帮助你总结和成长。</p>\n<p><b>8. 预期不切实际</b></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e399779ca62ba58654517d36ea80571c\" tg-width=\"554\" tg-height=\"291\"></p>\n<p>今日的网络世界充斥着各种似是而非的内容，经常会有一些所谓专家宣称，达成每年三位数，乃至四位数的回报都是轻而易举的事情，让人很容易受到蛊惑。然而实际上，这样的回报在短期内也只有少数人能够达到，而长期来看，根本就是子虚乌有。</p>\n<p><b>9. 处理不好心理压力</b></p>\n<p>许多人都从一开始就将日间交易看成了一个轻松赚钱的游戏，然而现实其实要冷酷得多，一路上，交易者会遇到各种各样的心理压力，以及各种各样的冲动。比如，日间交易散户经常会在心理因素驱使下犯下这些错误：不肯按照策略发出的信号做交易；忍不住去做策略没有发出信号的交易；死活不肯割肉，幻想再过一些时间，下跌的股票就能涨回来；过早卖掉上涨的股票以求心安。</p>\n<p><b>10. 不肯下苦功夫</b></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f0f20809ac2781d912106b81fdcd790d\" tg-width=\"554\" tg-height=\"311\"></p>\n<p>世界上从来就没有轻松赚钱的方法，何况是在股市当中和那么多其他人，那么多其他资金去博弈。日间交易者必须找到和不断验证可靠的策略，不断紧盯策略发出的信号，不断关注市场的变化……如果不能每天都在电脑前投入几个小时，拿这至少当一份兼职工作来干，就不要走这条路。</p>\n<p>遗憾的是，类似这样的建议，在理财顾问和金融教育专家那里早已经是老生常谈，但是日间交易散户群体依然前仆后继，从来不曾从人们视野当中消失。尤其是当下疫情造就的宅家新世代，哪怕麦基尔（Burton Malkiel）、马克斯（Howard Marks）、库珀曼（Leon Cooperman）等等名震业界的大佬一再发出警告，他们也只是一笑置之——毕竟他们的最大特点之一，就是蔑视一切既有权威，连巴菲特（Warren Buffett）都要踩在脚下的。</p>\n<p>等待着他们的命运，会和前辈们不同吗？</p>","source":"txmg","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>从100万血亏至不到1万！多数美股散户注定以悲剧收场？</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; 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display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n从100万血亏至不到1万！多数美股散户注定以悲剧收场？\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2020-07-10 20:42 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/c0QsiIOds578x7gf8fgw8g><strong>腾讯美股</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>“他们使一切变得极为便利，哪怕对股票一无所知的人也能够轻松上手。于是你去了他们的平台，等着你的命运就是赔钱。”这就是近日，一位名叫多巴茨（Richard Dobatse）的美股散户投资者对《纽约时报》撰稿人这样总结了自己的“多么痛的领悟”。\n\n\n多巴茨所指的“他们”，当然就是当下高度活跃的美股新日间交易散户的聚集地Robinhood平台。他是被这一app各种花狸狐哨的设定吸引过去的，这些手段使得...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/c0QsiIOds578x7gf8fgw8g\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/32f76f2b955be371110b877bebef37ba","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","SPY":"标普500ETF"},"source_url":"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/c0QsiIOds578x7gf8fgw8g","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1152202937","content_text":"“他们使一切变得极为便利，哪怕对股票一无所知的人也能够轻松上手。于是你去了他们的平台，等着你的命运就是赔钱。”这就是近日，一位名叫多巴茨（Richard Dobatse）的美股散户投资者对《纽约时报》撰稿人这样总结了自己的“多么痛的领悟”。\n\n\n多巴茨所指的“他们”，当然就是当下高度活跃的美股新日间交易散户的聚集地Robinhood平台。他是被这一app各种花狸狐哨的设定吸引过去的，这些手段使得复杂的投资看上去更像是简单的游戏，魅惑了很多用户。\n他是2017年“入坑”的，最初用信用卡预付了1.5万美元开户，而在不断遭遇亏损之后，又不得不借了合计3万美元的房屋净值贷款。\n今年，他似乎时来运转了，几个月里，账户净资产一度膨胀到了100万美元。然后，一切就分崩离析了，接受采访时，他账户里只剩下了6950美元。\n他的妻子介绍说，多巴茨“做交易时，甚至连饭都不想吃”，晚上“他还会做噩梦”。\n这篇报道再度将Robinhood和疫情期间诞生的一代宅家散户推到了聚光灯下。今年早些时候，一位二十岁的大学生卡恩斯（Alex Kearns）自杀身亡，就已经引发了关于这一群体和他们行为的广泛讨论。当时，他错误地以为自己的Robinhood账户已经欠债超过70万美元，于是留下了“一个二十岁、没有任何收入的人怎么会被系统分配了近百万美元的杠杆？”的遗书，与世长辞。\n\n如果只是去看这些散户的网上社区，比如Reddit的WallStreetBets群组或者其他论坛，人们很容易就会以为他们都是超级成功者，但正如前面两篇报道所显示的，事实其实远没有那么美妙。\n理财咨询公司Cerulli专门追踪券商数据的专家史密斯（Scott Smith）就坦言，也许现在由于美股近几个月的戏剧性大涨行情，这些散户当中颇有不少人赚了些钱，但是长期来看，日间交易群体赚钱其实是例外，赔钱才是必然。他在《纽约时报》报道中对Robinhood的评价是：“他们是在怂恿自行车都搞不掂的人去骑摩托车。长期而言，这种行为其实就等于试图从赌场手中抢钱。”\n赌客想要击败赌场，当然几乎是不可能，但是日间交易者要赚钱，真的就这么难么？事实胜于雄辩，投资社区网站Tradeciety曾经发布过一组有趣的统计结果。\n\n\n 80%的日间交易者都坚持不了两年。\n平均而言，全部散户的表现每年落后大盘1.5%，而日间交易散户落后6.5%。\n平均而言，全部日间交易者当中每年只有平均1.6%能够赚钱。\n越是没钱的散户，投入日间交易的资金相对于他们的总收入的占比越高。其中，那些穷困的、年轻的、居住于城市的少数族裔尤其如此。\n日间交易者倾向于卖掉上涨的股票，而不肯放弃下跌的。\n中国台湾2002年4月引入乐透彩票后，当地日间交易量骤降大约25%。\n日间交易者再度购入自己曾经赚钱的股票的概率要远大于自己曾经赔钱的股票。\n日间交易者不喜欢学习交易技巧。\n在扣除各种交易成本后，日间交易者的亏损还会进一步增大。\n日间交易者往往倾向于增持自己所在行业的股票。\n\n\n显然，关于日间交易散户的现实确实不怎么美好。那么，为何大多数日间交易散户都只能是悲剧收场呢？理财入门网站THE ROBUST TRADER列出了十大原因。\n1. 没有策略和规划\n要做交易，就必须有一个长期愿景，以及达成愿景的可靠规划，在不同的策略之间不停切换，乃至于全凭心血来潮做决定，注定是不会有好果子吃的。\n2. 没有自己的优势\n\n这是日间交易者遭遇失败的最重大原因之一。要在市场上获得成功，必须保证自己至少在某方面拥有一定优势，而大多数散户都做不到这一点。\n3. 全无纪律\n没有优势就已经很糟糕了，再没有坚持既定策略的纪律，后果就只能是雪上加霜。要克制住自己的各种情绪，自己的“直觉”对市场的判断，一切以冰冷的策略为根据，其实难度极高。\n4. 下注过大\n\n哪怕投资者有了策略、优势和纪律，也没有谁能够保证每次交易都会成功，而交易生涯的可持续性很大程度上就要看每次交易的头寸规模。如果每次投入的资金都相当于全部本钱的2%，则连续失败十次也就损失20%，而如果每次都投入10%，连续失败十次就意味着血本无归。不要只想着买得多赚得多，也要想想赔了怎么办。\n5. 盲目自大\n不管是在生活还是在交易当中，人们总是可能会将某种其实完全是运气造成的结果当成自己能力的体现，由此越走越远。尤其是那些依靠“直觉”的散户，在根本没有什么真正能力的情况下，靠着概率也可能有一些成功的交易，而因此变得胆子越来越大，直到万劫不复。\n6. 没有应变预案\n\n许多新玩家都相信，自己只要找到一种对的策略，就可以一直赚钱下去了，然而事实就是，没有任何一种策略是会永远有效的。市场总是会变的，当既有的策略已经与市场脱节，你该用什么新策略来代替？你又如何判断更换策略的时间节点？\n7. 不做交易记录\n在日间交易所必需的功课当中，做交易记录是非常重要的一项。每一笔交易的时间、对象、金额、信号、预设入场点或退场点、止损手段、总体盈亏等都应该记录下来，这样可以帮助你总结和成长。\n8. 预期不切实际\n\n今日的网络世界充斥着各种似是而非的内容，经常会有一些所谓专家宣称，达成每年三位数，乃至四位数的回报都是轻而易举的事情，让人很容易受到蛊惑。然而实际上，这样的回报在短期内也只有少数人能够达到，而长期来看，根本就是子虚乌有。\n9. 处理不好心理压力\n许多人都从一开始就将日间交易看成了一个轻松赚钱的游戏，然而现实其实要冷酷得多，一路上，交易者会遇到各种各样的心理压力，以及各种各样的冲动。比如，日间交易散户经常会在心理因素驱使下犯下这些错误：不肯按照策略发出的信号做交易；忍不住去做策略没有发出信号的交易；死活不肯割肉，幻想再过一些时间，下跌的股票就能涨回来；过早卖掉上涨的股票以求心安。\n10. 不肯下苦功夫\n\n世界上从来就没有轻松赚钱的方法，何况是在股市当中和那么多其他人，那么多其他资金去博弈。日间交易者必须找到和不断验证可靠的策略，不断紧盯策略发出的信号，不断关注市场的变化……如果不能每天都在电脑前投入几个小时，拿这至少当一份兼职工作来干，就不要走这条路。\n遗憾的是，类似这样的建议，在理财顾问和金融教育专家那里早已经是老生常谈，但是日间交易散户群体依然前仆后继，从来不曾从人们视野当中消失。尤其是当下疫情造就的宅家新世代，哪怕麦基尔（Burton Malkiel）、马克斯（Howard Marks）、库珀曼（Leon Cooperman）等等名震业界的大佬一再发出警告，他们也只是一笑置之——毕竟他们的最大特点之一，就是蔑视一切既有权威，连巴菲特（Warren Buffett）都要踩在脚下的。\n等待着他们的命运，会和前辈们不同吗？","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2129,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3527667803686145","authorId":"3527667803686145","authorIdStr":"3527667803686145","name":"社区成长助手","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2b7c7106b5c0c8b0037faa67439d898f","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3527667803686145"},"content":"终于等到了您的初发帖[比心][比心]发帖时关联相关股票或者相关话题，可以获得更多曝光哦～如果您想创作优质文章，请查看老虎社区创作指引","text":"终于等到了您的初发帖[比心][比心]发帖时关联相关股票或者相关话题，可以获得更多曝光哦～如果您想创作优质文章，请查看老虎社区创作指引","html":"终于等到了您的初发帖[比心][比心]发帖时关联相关股票或者相关话题，可以获得更多曝光哦～如果您想创作优质文章，请查看老虎社区创作指引"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":373114414,"gmtCreate":1618830979538,"gmtModify":1618830979538,"author":{"id":"3547066446284714","authorId":"3547066446284714","authorIdStr":"3547066446284714","name":"zhaosu","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3547066446284714"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/IFF\">$International Flavors &amp; Fragrances(IFF)$</a> 突破前高，看多","listText":"<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/IFF\">$International Flavors &amp; Fragrances(IFF)$</a> 突破前高，看多","text":"$International Flavors & Fragrances(IFF)$ 突破前高，看多","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/373114414","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2592,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":347581860,"gmtCreate":1618501541250,"gmtModify":1618501541250,"author":{"id":"3547066446284714","authorId":"3547066446284714","authorIdStr":"3547066446284714","name":"zhaosu","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3547066446284714"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"seeking alpha 每月只能看5篇文，是怎么转载的","listText":"seeking alpha 每月只能看5篇文，是怎么转载的","text":"seeking alpha 每月只能看5篇文，是怎么转载的","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/347581860","repostId":"1181372898","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1181372898","pubTimestamp":1618501265,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1181372898?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-04-15 23:41","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Is Palantir Actually Overvalued?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1181372898","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"(April 15) Palantir fell nearlr 3% in Thursday morning  trading.SummaryPalantir looks very expensive","content":"<p>(April 15)&nbsp;Palantir fell nearlr 3%&nbsp;in Thursday&nbsp;morning  trading.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/48094c753cf8466f8f6f524a7349fba1\" tg-width=\"658\" tg-height=\"395\"></p><p><b>Summary</b></p><ul><li>Palantir looks very expensive at first sight. But could that be justified?</li><li>The company looks a lot stronger than many other hyped-up growth stocks when it comes to margins, market positioning, etc.</li><li>We showcase ways to enter a position in Palantir at a more attractive price.</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/534db15a589a6170b395a97ae7d469e8\" tg-width=\"768\" tg-height=\"418\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Photo by wildpixel/iStock via Getty Images</span></p><p><b>Article Thesis</b></p><p>Palantir (PLTR), at 150 times this year's expected earnings, looks very expensive. But when we take a closer look, the price might be justified, as Palantir has a compelling ultra-long-term growth outlook due to a strong position in an absolute growth market. Despite a seemingly very high valuation, Palantir's shares could be a solid long-term investment.</p><p><b>Palantir Is Not A Typical Stock I Like</b></p><p>In general, I am mostly focused on dividend-paying stocks that trade at reasonable or cheap valuations, with some \"growth at a reasonable price\" (GARP) added in. Stocks trading at 100 times forward earnings, or even higher than that, are not at all typical of what I like to write about, and what I personally invest in. I have been quite critical of many stocks that trade at what I believe are too-high valuations. Nevertheless, I see Palantir as a stock that has a lot of potential in the long run, and that seems worthy of consideration, despite a seemingly very high valuation.</p><p>The reasoning for why I like Palantir, despite it trading at a quite high valuation, rests on three main pillars:</p><p><b>1. Palantir is active in an absolute growth market that will grow for decades</b></p><p>Big data, data analysis, and artificial intelligence are not short-term trends that will play out in a couple of years, but rather megatrends that will most likely become ever more important. 20 years from now, 30 years from now, and likely even farther in the future, big data and artificial intelligence will still be growth markets.</p><p><b>2. Palantir has a very clear industry leadership position</b></p><p>Many hyped-up growth companies are active in a highly fought-over market, oftentimes there is no clear, large moat for first-movers and current market leaders. I believe that in Palantir's case, that is not true. The company has developed a wide range of products and offerings for customers that are very unique, and where competition is not looking like a major concern. On top of that, Palantir has established very strong connections with government agencies and the military, which will be hard to replicate for eventual competitors. This does, I believe, result in a high likelihood that Palantir will not only be the leading player in the near term, but that it will retain this position for a long time. I personally am not so sure about the future leadership position of other current hyped-up leaders, including Tesla (TSLA) in EVs, Beyond Meat (BYND) in plant-based meat alternatives, etc.</p><p><b>3. The industry Palantir is active in has great characteristics</b></p><p>Big data and artificial intelligence are not only absolute growth markets, they also, as part of the software/service tech industry, offer a range of highly compelling characteristics. First, the software industry has, on average, very high gross and operating margins. This is, at least partially, the result of relatively low proportional costs, as there is no expensive manufacturing infrastructure needed.High gross margins&nbsp;are one of the common traits shared by companies that are able to deliver strong long-term share price gains.</p><p>The software industry is also capital extensive, which means that free cash flows, on average, are relatively high. There is no need to build out a lot of expensive infrastructure such as manufacturing plants, which translates into attractive free cash generation that can be used for tuck-in acquisitions, debt reduction, etc.</p><p>Third, the software industry overall is not cyclical. As software is an essential part of our daily lives and of doing business, customers don't scale back their use of software during a recession or any other type of crisis. In Palantir's case, where government agencies are a major customer, resilience is even stronger. Compared to many other growth industries, including EVs, renewable energy, etc. these very attractive traits are very pronounced for software companies, including Palantir. As an example of the attractiveness of Palantir's business mode, let's look at its gross margins versus those of other hyped growth stocks:</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bd5c147cb9babf998cfd35649f4cad22\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p>Clearly, Palantir is in a class of its own compared to Tesla, Beyond Meat, Peloton (PTON), or Canadian Solar (CSIQ) (as a stand-in for most solar and renewable stocks).</p><p><b>Palantir's Valuation - How High Is It?</b></p><p>Looking at current earnings per share estimates for this year, which stand at $0.16, Palantir is trading for around 150 times this year's earnings. That is, of course, an extremely high valuation in absolute terms.</p><p>However, it should be considered that Palantir is just beginning to generate positive net profits. Shortly after breaking even, net profits can't be expected to be very high yet. But due to two key reasons, Palantir's earnings should grow meaningfully in coming years. First, the nature of the market the company is active in will allow for strong revenue growth going forward. On top of that, thanks to the fact that Palantir generates very high gross margins, each additional dollar of revenue that the company generates in the future should help a lot in improving profitability. When a company like Palantir adds $1 billion in additional sales, that will do a lot more for its bottom line compared to most other companies, that won't see profits grow as much due to lower margins.</p><p>Analysts are thus, not surprisingly, forecasting strong earnings per share growth over the next two years:</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f4a7db46186418a049678d1ecf17ff30\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"436\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p>Whereas Palantir trades for around 150 times this year's earnings, the stock trades for 118 times 2022's earnings, and for 97 times 2023's earnings. Those aren't low valuations at all, but it can make sense to look at how companies such as Netflix (NFLX) or Amazon (AMZN) were valued in their younger days.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8c82732cfdc04638279f1d9e77e9c1e4\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"419\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p>Not too long ago, these companies were trading for 200-300 times net profits, despite having reached a much larger size already. Palantir, with stronger gross margins and a smaller size, is not trading for 200 or even 300 times net earnings. Since we all know that buying Amazon or Netflix five years ago was a great decision, Palantir's current valuation may indeed not be unreasonable.</p><p>When we assume that current estimates for 2023's net earnings are correct, and that Palantir will be able to grow its earnings per share by 25% a year through the 2020s, then net earnings would total $1.23 in 2030. Put a 35 times earnings multiple on that, and shares would be valued at $43, which would lead to annual returns of ~6%.</p><p>A 35 times earnings multiple may be on the conservative side still - after all, even a giant such as Amazon is trading at 72 times earnings today. Palantir may also be able to grow its earnings per share at a higher pace than 25% a year during the 2020s. Lastly, Palantir may be way more profitable in 2023 compared to what analysts are forecasting right now (after all, the company has&nbsp;easily beaten estimates&nbsp;in the past), which would lead to higher EPS in 2030 as well, assuming an unchanged growth rate. In a more bullish scenario, where Palantir earns $0.30 in 2023, grows its EPS by 30% a year through 2030 and trades at 40 times net earnings in 2030, the stock could be worth $75 nine years from now, delivering 200% in that scenario. I'm not saying that this will happen - no one can know that right now. But I believe that, with reasonable assumptions, it can be argued that Palantir's shares may not be all that overpriced right now.</p><p><b>How To Get Into Palantir At A Lower Price</b></p><p>For those that like the company, but that deem shares a little too expensive, selling covered calls or cash-secured puts could be an interesting choice. Due to a high implied volatility, option premiums are quite high. If you buy 100 shares at $25 and sell a $30 call with expiry in June 2022 at $6.30, you effectively entered a position at $18.70, or a 25% discount to the current price. There is a risk of shares getting called away, but even in that scenario, one would still generate a return of 45% ($36.30/$25) in 14 months, which would not at all be unattractive.</p><p>Similarly, entering a position via cash-secured puts (e.g. Jan 2022 puts with a strike price selling for$3.00right now) could be a way to get a sizeable discount versus the current share price.</p><p><b>Takeaway</b></p><p>At first sight, Palantir looks quite expensive, trading for around 150 times net earnings. But when we take a closer look, the above-average quality, strong growth outlook, and great market position, Palantir may well be worth its current price. I see it as one of the most favorable among the hyped-up growth stocks - which I see as overvalued in most cases - and believe that investors who buy Palantir's shares right here may very well do fine in the long run. I still believe that utilizing option strategies to enter a position at a lower effective price could be a good idea though, as this is highly rewarding thanks to very high option premiums.</p><p>Palantir looks quite expensive but unlike many other hyped-up names, it could be worth its current valuation, I believe. I believe that the stock is interesting for very long-term oriented investors that want to see Palantir's potential play out over the next decades.</p>","source":"seekingalpha","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Is Palantir Actually Overvalued?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nIs Palantir Actually Overvalued?\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-04-15 23:41 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4419080-is-palantir-actually-overvalued><strong>seekingalpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>(April 15) Palantir fell nearlr 3% in Thursday morning  trading.SummaryPalantir looks very expensive at first sight. But could that be justified?The company looks a lot stronger than many other hyped-...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4419080-is-palantir-actually-overvalued\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"PLTR":"Palantir Technologies Inc."},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4419080-is-palantir-actually-overvalued","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/5a36db9d73b4222bc376d24ccc48c8a4","article_id":"1181372898","content_text":"(April 15) Palantir fell nearlr 3% in Thursday morning  trading.SummaryPalantir looks very expensive at first sight. But could that be justified?The company looks a lot stronger than many other hyped-up growth stocks when it comes to margins, market positioning, etc.We showcase ways to enter a position in Palantir at a more attractive price.Photo by wildpixel/iStock via Getty ImagesArticle ThesisPalantir (PLTR), at 150 times this year's expected earnings, looks very expensive. But when we take a closer look, the price might be justified, as Palantir has a compelling ultra-long-term growth outlook due to a strong position in an absolute growth market. Despite a seemingly very high valuation, Palantir's shares could be a solid long-term investment.Palantir Is Not A Typical Stock I LikeIn general, I am mostly focused on dividend-paying stocks that trade at reasonable or cheap valuations, with some \"growth at a reasonable price\" (GARP) added in. Stocks trading at 100 times forward earnings, or even higher than that, are not at all typical of what I like to write about, and what I personally invest in. I have been quite critical of many stocks that trade at what I believe are too-high valuations. Nevertheless, I see Palantir as a stock that has a lot of potential in the long run, and that seems worthy of consideration, despite a seemingly very high valuation.The reasoning for why I like Palantir, despite it trading at a quite high valuation, rests on three main pillars:1. Palantir is active in an absolute growth market that will grow for decadesBig data, data analysis, and artificial intelligence are not short-term trends that will play out in a couple of years, but rather megatrends that will most likely become ever more important. 20 years from now, 30 years from now, and likely even farther in the future, big data and artificial intelligence will still be growth markets.2. Palantir has a very clear industry leadership positionMany hyped-up growth companies are active in a highly fought-over market, oftentimes there is no clear, large moat for first-movers and current market leaders. I believe that in Palantir's case, that is not true. The company has developed a wide range of products and offerings for customers that are very unique, and where competition is not looking like a major concern. On top of that, Palantir has established very strong connections with government agencies and the military, which will be hard to replicate for eventual competitors. This does, I believe, result in a high likelihood that Palantir will not only be the leading player in the near term, but that it will retain this position for a long time. I personally am not so sure about the future leadership position of other current hyped-up leaders, including Tesla (TSLA) in EVs, Beyond Meat (BYND) in plant-based meat alternatives, etc.3. The industry Palantir is active in has great characteristicsBig data and artificial intelligence are not only absolute growth markets, they also, as part of the software/service tech industry, offer a range of highly compelling characteristics. First, the software industry has, on average, very high gross and operating margins. This is, at least partially, the result of relatively low proportional costs, as there is no expensive manufacturing infrastructure needed.High gross margins are one of the common traits shared by companies that are able to deliver strong long-term share price gains.The software industry is also capital extensive, which means that free cash flows, on average, are relatively high. There is no need to build out a lot of expensive infrastructure such as manufacturing plants, which translates into attractive free cash generation that can be used for tuck-in acquisitions, debt reduction, etc.Third, the software industry overall is not cyclical. As software is an essential part of our daily lives and of doing business, customers don't scale back their use of software during a recession or any other type of crisis. In Palantir's case, where government agencies are a major customer, resilience is even stronger. Compared to many other growth industries, including EVs, renewable energy, etc. these very attractive traits are very pronounced for software companies, including Palantir. As an example of the attractiveness of Palantir's business mode, let's look at its gross margins versus those of other hyped growth stocks:Data by YChartsClearly, Palantir is in a class of its own compared to Tesla, Beyond Meat, Peloton (PTON), or Canadian Solar (CSIQ) (as a stand-in for most solar and renewable stocks).Palantir's Valuation - How High Is It?Looking at current earnings per share estimates for this year, which stand at $0.16, Palantir is trading for around 150 times this year's earnings. That is, of course, an extremely high valuation in absolute terms.However, it should be considered that Palantir is just beginning to generate positive net profits. Shortly after breaking even, net profits can't be expected to be very high yet. But due to two key reasons, Palantir's earnings should grow meaningfully in coming years. First, the nature of the market the company is active in will allow for strong revenue growth going forward. On top of that, thanks to the fact that Palantir generates very high gross margins, each additional dollar of revenue that the company generates in the future should help a lot in improving profitability. When a company like Palantir adds $1 billion in additional sales, that will do a lot more for its bottom line compared to most other companies, that won't see profits grow as much due to lower margins.Analysts are thus, not surprisingly, forecasting strong earnings per share growth over the next two years:Data by YChartsWhereas Palantir trades for around 150 times this year's earnings, the stock trades for 118 times 2022's earnings, and for 97 times 2023's earnings. Those aren't low valuations at all, but it can make sense to look at how companies such as Netflix (NFLX) or Amazon (AMZN) were valued in their younger days.Data by YChartsNot too long ago, these companies were trading for 200-300 times net profits, despite having reached a much larger size already. Palantir, with stronger gross margins and a smaller size, is not trading for 200 or even 300 times net earnings. Since we all know that buying Amazon or Netflix five years ago was a great decision, Palantir's current valuation may indeed not be unreasonable.When we assume that current estimates for 2023's net earnings are correct, and that Palantir will be able to grow its earnings per share by 25% a year through the 2020s, then net earnings would total $1.23 in 2030. Put a 35 times earnings multiple on that, and shares would be valued at $43, which would lead to annual returns of ~6%.A 35 times earnings multiple may be on the conservative side still - after all, even a giant such as Amazon is trading at 72 times earnings today. Palantir may also be able to grow its earnings per share at a higher pace than 25% a year during the 2020s. Lastly, Palantir may be way more profitable in 2023 compared to what analysts are forecasting right now (after all, the company has easily beaten estimates in the past), which would lead to higher EPS in 2030 as well, assuming an unchanged growth rate. In a more bullish scenario, where Palantir earns $0.30 in 2023, grows its EPS by 30% a year through 2030 and trades at 40 times net earnings in 2030, the stock could be worth $75 nine years from now, delivering 200% in that scenario. I'm not saying that this will happen - no one can know that right now. But I believe that, with reasonable assumptions, it can be argued that Palantir's shares may not be all that overpriced right now.How To Get Into Palantir At A Lower PriceFor those that like the company, but that deem shares a little too expensive, selling covered calls or cash-secured puts could be an interesting choice. Due to a high implied volatility, option premiums are quite high. If you buy 100 shares at $25 and sell a $30 call with expiry in June 2022 at $6.30, you effectively entered a position at $18.70, or a 25% discount to the current price. There is a risk of shares getting called away, but even in that scenario, one would still generate a return of 45% ($36.30/$25) in 14 months, which would not at all be unattractive.Similarly, entering a position via cash-secured puts (e.g. Jan 2022 puts with a strike price selling for$3.00right now) could be a way to get a sizeable discount versus the current share price.TakeawayAt first sight, Palantir looks quite expensive, trading for around 150 times net earnings. But when we take a closer look, the above-average quality, strong growth outlook, and great market position, Palantir may well be worth its current price. I see it as one of the most favorable among the hyped-up growth stocks - which I see as overvalued in most cases - and believe that investors who buy Palantir's shares right here may very well do fine in the long run. I still believe that utilizing option strategies to enter a position at a lower effective price could be a good idea though, as this is highly rewarding thanks to very high option premiums.Palantir looks quite expensive but unlike many other hyped-up names, it could be worth its current valuation, I believe. I believe that the stock is interesting for very long-term oriented investors that want to see Palantir's potential play out over the next decades.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1401,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":869028517,"gmtCreate":1632230405739,"gmtModify":1632230405739,"author":{"id":"3547066446284714","authorId":"3547066446284714","authorIdStr":"3547066446284714","name":"zhaosu","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3547066446284714"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"谁要当接盘侠","listText":"谁要当接盘侠","text":"谁要当接盘侠","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/869028517","repostId":"860876002","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":860876002,"gmtCreate":1632157996806,"gmtModify":1632157996806,"author":{"id":"3518760057973970","authorId":"3518760057973970","authorIdStr":"3518760057973970","name":"刘有真","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3518760057973970"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a 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CALL(BABA)$中概股跌起来没人要[流泪]","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9ab5bc4111dc718c6f10904ca44da4fe","width":"1242","height":"2001"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/860876002","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2102,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":838766272,"gmtCreate":1629430415596,"gmtModify":1629430415596,"author":{"id":"3547066446284714","authorId":"3547066446284714","authorIdStr":"3547066446284714","name":"zhaosu","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3547066446284714"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"不会做客？","listText":"不会做客？","text":"不会做客？","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/838766272","repostId":"838431141","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":838431141,"gmtCreate":1629423118183,"gmtModify":1629424157036,"author":{"id":"3520351225114059","authorId":"3520351225114059","authorIdStr":"3520351225114059","name":"张先生_3270","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cc5e1c926f97bb3279cb03975e26215f","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3520351225114059"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a 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