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03:25","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"美联储紧急行动于事无补,经济衰退可能性仍达80%","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2020470406","media":"新浪美股","summary":"北京时间3月20日消息,媒体调查的分析师称,几乎可以肯定的说冠状病毒危机结束了美国有史以来最长扩张,并将经济推向了短暂低迷期。分析师认为美国今年经济衰退的可能性高达80%。为抑制疫情传播采取的封锁和业","content":"<p>北京时间3月20日消息,媒体调查的分析师称,几乎可以肯定的说冠状病毒危机结束了美国有史以来最长扩张,并将经济推向了短暂低迷期。分析师认为美国今年经济衰退的可能性高达80%。</p><p>为抑制疫情传播采取的封锁和业务关闭措施已严重破坏全球经济活动,并引发金融市场恐慌。美股结束了历史上最长的牛市行情,并创下自1987年股灾以来的最大单日跌幅。</p><p>美联储上周日紧急采取行动,将利率降至零附近,并重启资产购买计划,此后继续增加了数万亿美元的流动性以保持市场运转。</p><p>但这仍不足以防止经济衰退。尽管目前经济学家似乎认为,疫情的打击将是惩罚性的但只是暂时,多数人预计下半年至少会出现温和反弹。</p><p>美银美林(BofA Merrill Lynch)经济学家米歇尔-迈耶(Michelle Meyer)表示:“我们认为美国经济已同全球其他地区一样陷入衰退。尽管跌势严重,但我们认为这将是短暂的。”他预计,美国第二季度GDP将萎缩12%,而当前本季度仅增长0.5%。</p><p>“我们预计美国经济将在第三季度恢复增长。就业机会将流失,财富将被破坏,信心将被压低。如果有针对性和积极的政策措施来抵消经济活动损失并确保健全的金融体系,经济就还有救。”</p><p>调查显示,在美联储上周日采取紧急行动之后,未来12个月美国经济衰退的可能性大幅跃升至80%,而两周前仅为30%。</p><p>80%的可能性是自2008年1月开始针对衰退概率进行调查以来的最高水平。当年9月雷曼兄弟(Lehman Brothers)倒闭前的预测数据为60%。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a59c48015228ca2571dbc83c7c0b5c0a\" /></p><p>调查预计,本季度美国经济将增长0.7%,约为一个月前调查预测的一半,且远低于2019年四季度2.1%的增长率;预计第二季度经济将萎缩5.0%,而2月20日的调查为增长1.8%。</p><p>在接受调查的40位分析师中,有20位预测美国将出现技术性衰退(连续两个季度经济萎缩),其中大多数人认为衰退将在今年上半年发生。</p><p>此外,对于最坏情况的预测中值是,美国本季度经济将萎缩1.0%,第二季度萎缩6.0%;其中最悲观预计为第二季度经济大幅萎缩25%。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b55910ef3e2af7a11e57cc48b5c4ec71\" /></p><p><span><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GS\">高盛</a></span>首席投资官Sharmin Mossavar-Rahmani指出:“基准假设是,美国经济第二季度将经历自全球金融危机以来最严重的季度收缩,随后下半年将强劲反弹。”</p><p>“但是前景取决于许多因素,包括疫情爆发的严重程度和持续时间,支出减少后恢复的速度以及货币和财政政策提供支持的有效性。”</p><p>到目前为止,调查预计美国经济将在2020年下半年反弹,第三季度增长1.5%,四季度增长2.5%。</p><p>根据中位数预测,2020年全年增长前景从上个月预测的1.8%降至0.5%,在最坏情况下可能为萎缩2.0%。</p>","source":"sina","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta 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padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n美联储紧急行动于事无补,经济衰退可能性仍达80%\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2020-03-20 03:25 北京时间 <a href=https://finance.sina.com.cn/stock/usstock/c/2020-03-20/doc-iimxxsth0380922.shtml><strong>新浪美股</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>北京时间3月20日消息,媒体调查的分析师称,几乎可以肯定的说冠状病毒危机结束了美国有史以来最长扩张,并将经济推向了短暂低迷期。分析师认为美国今年经济衰退的可能性高达80%。为抑制疫情传播采取的封锁和业务关闭措施已严重破坏全球经济活动,并引发金融市场恐慌。美股结束了历史上最长的牛市行情,并创下自1987年股灾以来的最大单日跌幅。美联储上周日紧急采取行动,将利率降至零附近,并重启资产购买计划,此后继续...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://finance.sina.com.cn/stock/usstock/c/2020-03-20/doc-iimxxsth0380922.shtml\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d0771f6361d74a78ebbf8c2fdc55c6b7","relate_stocks":{"161125":"标普500","513500":"标普500ETF","QLD":"纳指两倍做多ETF","PSQ":"纳指反向ETF","IVV":"标普500指数ETF","TQQQ":"纳指三倍做多ETF","DOG":"道指反向ETF","SSO":"两倍做多标普500ETF","UDOW":"道指三倍做多ETF-ProShares","SPXU":"三倍做空标普500ETF","SQQQ":"纳指三倍做空ETF","SDOW":"道指三倍做空ETF-ProShares","QQQ":"纳指100ETF","SPY":"标普500ETF","SDS":"两倍做空标普500ETF",".DJI":"道琼斯","DXD":"道指两倍做空ETF","QID":"纳指两倍做空ETF",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","DDM":"道指两倍做多ETF","SH":"标普500反向ETF"},"source_url":"https://finance.sina.com.cn/stock/usstock/c/2020-03-20/doc-iimxxsth0380922.shtml","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/b0d1b7e8843deea78cc308b15114de44","article_id":"2020470406","content_text":"北京时间3月20日消息,媒体调查的分析师称,几乎可以肯定的说冠状病毒危机结束了美国有史以来最长扩张,并将经济推向了短暂低迷期。分析师认为美国今年经济衰退的可能性高达80%。为抑制疫情传播采取的封锁和业务关闭措施已严重破坏全球经济活动,并引发金融市场恐慌。美股结束了历史上最长的牛市行情,并创下自1987年股灾以来的最大单日跌幅。美联储上周日紧急采取行动,将利率降至零附近,并重启资产购买计划,此后继续增加了数万亿美元的流动性以保持市场运转。但这仍不足以防止经济衰退。尽管目前经济学家似乎认为,疫情的打击将是惩罚性的但只是暂时,多数人预计下半年至少会出现温和反弹。美银美林(BofA Merrill Lynch)经济学家米歇尔-迈耶(Michelle Meyer)表示:“我们认为美国经济已同全球其他地区一样陷入衰退。尽管跌势严重,但我们认为这将是短暂的。”他预计,美国第二季度GDP将萎缩12%,而当前本季度仅增长0.5%。“我们预计美国经济将在第三季度恢复增长。就业机会将流失,财富将被破坏,信心将被压低。如果有针对性和积极的政策措施来抵消经济活动损失并确保健全的金融体系,经济就还有救。”调查显示,在美联储上周日采取紧急行动之后,未来12个月美国经济衰退的可能性大幅跃升至80%,而两周前仅为30%。80%的可能性是自2008年1月开始针对衰退概率进行调查以来的最高水平。当年9月雷曼兄弟(Lehman Brothers)倒闭前的预测数据为60%。调查预计,本季度美国经济将增长0.7%,约为一个月前调查预测的一半,且远低于2019年四季度2.1%的增长率;预计第二季度经济将萎缩5.0%,而2月20日的调查为增长1.8%。在接受调查的40位分析师中,有20位预测美国将出现技术性衰退(连续两个季度经济萎缩),其中大多数人认为衰退将在今年上半年发生。此外,对于最坏情况的预测中值是,美国本季度经济将萎缩1.0%,第二季度萎缩6.0%;其中最悲观预计为第二季度经济大幅萎缩25%。高盛首席投资官Sharmin Mossavar-Rahmani指出:“基准假设是,美国经济第二季度将经历自全球金融危机以来最严重的季度收缩,随后下半年将强劲反弹。”“但是前景取决于许多因素,包括疫情爆发的严重程度和持续时间,支出减少后恢复的速度以及货币和财政政策提供支持的有效性。”到目前为止,调查预计美国经济将在2020年下半年反弹,第三季度增长1.5%,四季度增长2.5%。根据中位数预测,2020年全年增长前景从上个月预测的1.8%降至0.5%,在最坏情况下可能为萎缩2.0%。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":337,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}