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潘潘a
2020-10-14
卜 🤨
科技股“泡沫”迹象再现，纳指会重复9月暴跌行情吗？
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🤨 ","listText":"卜 🤨 ","text":"卜 🤨","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/309839749","repostId":"1117389223","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1117389223","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1602586027,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1117389223?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2020-10-13 18:47","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"科技股“泡沫”迹象再现，纳指会重复9月暴跌行情吗？","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1117389223","media":"英为财情Invest...","summary":"科技股最近的飙升，看起来有点似曾相识。虽然刺激方案的谈判毫无实质性进展，估值仍然高企，甚至有国会报告呼吁分拆科技巨头，但纳斯达克100指数周一仍然大涨3.1%，创4月下旬以来最好的单日表现。过去四个交","content":"<p>科技股最近的飙升，看起来有点似曾相识。</p><p>虽然刺激方案的谈判毫无实质性进展，估值仍然高企，甚至有国会报告呼吁分拆科技巨头，但纳斯达克100指数周一仍然大涨3.1%，创4月下旬以来最好的单日表现。过去四个交易日累计上涨7%。</p><p>与此同时，衡量股价潜在波动率的指标并没有下跌，反而是同步上涨——与常识相悖。鉴于潜在波动率走势受到期权价格的指引，这种罕见的同步表明市场对股票期权的需求正在推动股价上涨。这与8月底、9月初科技股所经历的情况并无二致。</p><p>难道科技股走出9月的暴跌阴影后，又要重蹈覆辙了吗？</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c2aa8348b2127074d5697abc8769b6e0\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\">纳斯达克100指数走势<b>科技股看涨期权逼近到期日，引发需求飙升</b></p><p>无论买家是散户还是软银这样的大型机构，市场对于科技股看涨期权的需求飙升在2020年已经变成了熟悉的故事情节。</p><p>野村证券的查理·麦克埃利格特（Charlie McElligott）在最新的一份研报中指出，看涨期权的大量买入是由单只的股票期权交易量推动的；随着在8月份交易的部分大型科技股看涨期权将于本周五到期，新的看涨期权需求大举卷土重来，迫使做市商做空Gamma，即买入更多的股票来进行风险对冲。</p><p>周一，在十只成交量最高的期权合约中，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">苹果</a> 的看涨期权占据了其中的四只；将于周五到期、行使价为125美元的苹果看涨期权有31万张合约易手，成交价比上周五的收盘价翻了两番。<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMZN\">亚马逊</a> 的看涨期权成交量已经触及过去五天均值的两倍，刚刚过去的周五，其成交量更高达34万张，创下自1月份以来的最高水平。</p><p>除了看涨期权交易量的飙升之外，还有一个关键条件是低流动性。早在上周，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JPM\">摩根大通</a>策略师肖恩·奎格（Shawn Quigg）就称，市场的低流动性环境为做市商的做空Gamma做好了铺垫，这会进一步放大市场的走势。</p><p><b>泡沫会被马上戳破吗？</b></p><p>当然，推动科技股价格走高的可能是一些更为简单的原因，比如说近期大型科技股表现不佳。在周一的大涨之前，纳斯达克100指数在10月份的表现落后于罗素2000小盘股足足6个百分点，是三年来最差的相对收益率。</p><p>又比如说一些基本面催化剂，像是苹果14日凌晨的新品发布会，和亚马逊13、14日的Prime Day会员日。此外，RBC Capital Markets将苹果的目标价上调至132美元，比上周五的收盘价高出约13%；<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DB\">德意志银行</a>也上调了<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/FB\">Facebook</a> 、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GOOG\">谷歌</a>等科技巨头的目标价，预计数字广告将强劲复苏。</p><p>看涨期权的飙升并不意味着科技股将马上迎来暴跌，市场仍有可能维持泡沫状态一段时间。</p><p>值得注意的是，这次科技股的上涨与8月有一个不同点是：最新的CFTC持仓报告显示，纳斯达克100迷你期货的净非商业空头仓位仍然维持在高位——两周前它们飙升至纪录高位。也就是说，虽然纳斯达克100近期已经有所反弹，但机构投资者仍然维持看空。而在8月份，机构仍然是多头为主。</p><p>换言之，除了看涨期权需求飙升引发的做空Gamma式行情之外，周一纳斯达克100指数的上升在一定程度上也是轧空行情。</p><p>但是，既然已经看到了与8月份同的泡沫迹象，投资者就无法完全忽视9月回调行情重现的可能性。正如Interactive Brokers首席策略师史蒂夫·索斯尼克（Steve Sosnick）所说，股票价格与隐含波动率同步走高始终是一个反转的警告信号，表明期权市场似乎过于自满。</p>","source":"lsy1594375853987","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>科技股“泡沫”迹象再现，纳指会重复9月暴跌行情吗？</title>\n<style 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margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n科技股“泡沫”迹象再现，纳指会重复9月暴跌行情吗？\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2020-10-13 18:47 北京时间 <a href=https://cn.investing.com/analysis/article-200457426><strong>英为财情Invest...</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>科技股最近的飙升，看起来有点似曾相识。虽然刺激方案的谈判毫无实质性进展，估值仍然高企，甚至有国会报告呼吁分拆科技巨头，但纳斯达克100指数周一仍然大涨3.1%，创4月下旬以来最好的单日表现。过去四个交易日累计上涨7%。与此同时，衡量股价潜在波动率的指标并没有下跌，反而是同步上涨——与常识相悖。鉴于潜在波动率走势受到期权价格的指引，这种罕见的同步表明市场对股票期权的需求正在推动股价上涨。这与8月底、...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://cn.investing.com/analysis/article-200457426\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/94f63b769c643e0ff38e9cbf00081219","relate_stocks":{"AAPL":"苹果"},"source_url":"https://cn.investing.com/analysis/article-200457426","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1117389223","content_text":"科技股最近的飙升，看起来有点似曾相识。虽然刺激方案的谈判毫无实质性进展，估值仍然高企，甚至有国会报告呼吁分拆科技巨头，但纳斯达克100指数周一仍然大涨3.1%，创4月下旬以来最好的单日表现。过去四个交易日累计上涨7%。与此同时，衡量股价潜在波动率的指标并没有下跌，反而是同步上涨——与常识相悖。鉴于潜在波动率走势受到期权价格的指引，这种罕见的同步表明市场对股票期权的需求正在推动股价上涨。这与8月底、9月初科技股所经历的情况并无二致。难道科技股走出9月的暴跌阴影后，又要重蹈覆辙了吗？纳斯达克100指数走势科技股看涨期权逼近到期日，引发需求飙升无论买家是散户还是软银这样的大型机构，市场对于科技股看涨期权的需求飙升在2020年已经变成了熟悉的故事情节。野村证券的查理·麦克埃利格特（Charlie McElligott）在最新的一份研报中指出，看涨期权的大量买入是由单只的股票期权交易量推动的；随着在8月份交易的部分大型科技股看涨期权将于本周五到期，新的看涨期权需求大举卷土重来，迫使做市商做空Gamma，即买入更多的股票来进行风险对冲。周一，在十只成交量最高的期权合约中，苹果 的看涨期权占据了其中的四只；将于周五到期、行使价为125美元的苹果看涨期权有31万张合约易手，成交价比上周五的收盘价翻了两番。亚马逊 的看涨期权成交量已经触及过去五天均值的两倍，刚刚过去的周五，其成交量更高达34万张，创下自1月份以来的最高水平。除了看涨期权交易量的飙升之外，还有一个关键条件是低流动性。早在上周，摩根大通策略师肖恩·奎格（Shawn Quigg）就称，市场的低流动性环境为做市商的做空Gamma做好了铺垫，这会进一步放大市场的走势。泡沫会被马上戳破吗？当然，推动科技股价格走高的可能是一些更为简单的原因，比如说近期大型科技股表现不佳。在周一的大涨之前，纳斯达克100指数在10月份的表现落后于罗素2000小盘股足足6个百分点，是三年来最差的相对收益率。又比如说一些基本面催化剂，像是苹果14日凌晨的新品发布会，和亚马逊13、14日的Prime Day会员日。此外，RBC Capital Markets将苹果的目标价上调至132美元，比上周五的收盘价高出约13%；德意志银行也上调了Facebook 、谷歌等科技巨头的目标价，预计数字广告将强劲复苏。看涨期权的飙升并不意味着科技股将马上迎来暴跌，市场仍有可能维持泡沫状态一段时间。值得注意的是，这次科技股的上涨与8月有一个不同点是：最新的CFTC持仓报告显示，纳斯达克100迷你期货的净非商业空头仓位仍然维持在高位——两周前它们飙升至纪录高位。也就是说，虽然纳斯达克100近期已经有所反弹，但机构投资者仍然维持看空。而在8月份，机构仍然是多头为主。换言之，除了看涨期权需求飙升引发的做空Gamma式行情之外，周一纳斯达克100指数的上升在一定程度上也是轧空行情。但是，既然已经看到了与8月份同的泡沫迹象，投资者就无法完全忽视9月回调行情重现的可能性。正如Interactive Brokers首席策略师史蒂夫·索斯尼克（Steve Sosnick）所说，股票价格与隐含波动率同步走高始终是一个反转的警告信号，表明期权市场似乎过于自满。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1430,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3527667803686145","authorId":"3527667803686145","name":"社区成长助手","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2b7c7106b5c0c8b0037faa67439d898f","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"3527667803686145","idStr":"3527667803686145"},"content":"终于等到了您的初发帖[比心][比心]发帖时关联相关股票或者相关话题，可以获得更多曝光哦～如果您想创作优质文章，请查看老虎社区创作指引","text":"终于等到了您的初发帖[比心][比心]发帖时关联相关股票或者相关话题，可以获得更多曝光哦～如果您想创作优质文章，请查看老虎社区创作指引","html":"终于等到了您的初发帖[比心][比心]发帖时关联相关股票或者相关话题，可以获得更多曝光哦～如果您想创作优质文章，请查看老虎社区创作指引"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":309839749,"gmtCreate":1602633310181,"gmtModify":1703827222416,"author":{"id":"3546732691340033","authorId":"3546732691340033","name":"潘潘a","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3546732691340033","authorIdStr":"3546732691340033"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"卜 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